X-From_: folks-bounces@wikipedometer.net Wed Jun 17 19:39:00 2009
Return-Path: <folks-bounces@wikipedometer.net>
Message-ID: <870938.28977.qm@web33301.mail.mud.yahoo.com>
X-YMail-OSG: 3mGlaGYVM1k.Hm55PPqU2zWuUMsI3Vi02sg0GNpvgagQ8MdzWGej1oShOdhRpgwTOUVKvma5bN1SIFq8SvRhmlBkHtoUpAiTfcdxPYejy9EQA69lc1EW2c__IzFGwH1aqNbGXDDDgkTWeqLdLUcZSI1yDFcpwg4UYEywbt110AB9oChpAThUJNxedoFoOcmq_iTLDvS72o84JLoOIcx0RyHtxyd3FLqmQoXAghRWnIvmvwdJuTFCGs.TbAyDlDCY2Qbwsw8xl_qiNjHDWYVrYjZnMo2a5M5Q6yNL2wPNmPiChrDL48C9nKsM77ET_Z_ZyBA7tmfqfjH9q_ueiXp8ABzXWtJ8NP6NdtS2sgURk19_n9wPft2AroFTkQ--
X-Mailer: YahooMailClassic/5.4.12 YahooMailWebService/0.7.289.15
Date: Wed, 17 Jun 2009 10:38:52 -0700 (PDT)
From: Christian Suciu <christiansuciu@yahoo.com>
To: folks@wikipedometer.net
MIME-Version: 1.0
X-Spam_score: 1.4
X-Spam_score_int: 14
X-Spam_bar: +
X-Spam_report: Spam detection software,
	running on the system "pakkun.mirky.net", has
	identified this incoming email as possible spam. The original message
	has been attached to this so you can view it (if it isn't spam) or
	label similar future email.  If you have any questions, see
	the administrator of that system for details.
	Content preview:  Andres,
	I think the author's (rather obvious) point was
	that Russia is quick to grant acceptance of elections won by falsehood.
	Regardless, while the Supreme Leader does indeed have real power, the
	President is hardly a figurehead. He's the public face of the regime,
	and it appears segments of the security forces are more loyal to him
	than to the clerics. Indeed, the veneer of clerical rule seems to be
	vanishing, replaced by raw fascism. Also, incidentally, the Ukrainian
	President is now constitutionally less powerful than he used to be.
	Molobo, it's not just students in Tehran. From The Economist: Protests
	are also reported in other cities, including Tabriz, Mashad and Rasht.
	Plastic bullets were reportedly used on crowds of students at
	universities in Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz. [...] 
	Content analysis details:   (1.4 points, 5.0 required)
	pts rule name              description
	---- ----------------------
	--------------------------------------------------
	-2.6 BAYES_00 BODY: Bayesian spam probability is 0 to 1%
	[score: 0.0000]
	0.0 HTML_MESSAGE           BODY: HTML included in message
	1.4 HTML_10_20             BODY: Message is 10% to 20% HTML
	0.2 DNS_FROM_RFC_ABUSE RBL: Envelope sender in abuse.rfc-ignorant.org
	1.7 DNS_FROM_RFC_POST      RBL: Envelope sender in
	postmaster.rfc-ignorant.org
	0.7 AWL AWL: From: address is in the auto white-list
X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.1.7-deb (2006-10-05) on 
	pakkun.mirky.net
X-Spam-Level: **
X-Spam-Status: No, score=2.1 required=5.0 tests=AWL,BAYES_05,
	DNS_FROM_RFC_ABUSE,DNS_FROM_RFC_POST,HTML_10_20,HTML_MESSAGE 
	autolearn=no version=3.1.7-deb
Subject: Re: [WPM] Russia and Iran
X-BeenThere: folks@wikipedometer.net
X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.9
Precedence: list
Reply-To: Wikipedia statistics <folks@wikipedometer.net>
List-Id: Wikipedia statistics <folks.wikipedometer.net>
List-Unsubscribe: <http://wikipedometer.net/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/folks>,
	<mailto:folks-request@wikipedometer.net?subject=unsubscribe>
List-Post: <mailto:folks@wikipedometer.net>
List-Help: <mailto:folks-request@wikipedometer.net?subject=help>
List-Subscribe: <http://wikipedometer.net/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/folks>,
	<mailto:folks-request@wikipedometer.net?subject=subscribe>
Content-Type: multipart/mixed; boundary="===============4313195708950901456=="
Mime-version: 1.0
Sender: folks-bounces@wikipedometer.net
Errors-To: folks-bounces@wikipedometer.net
X-Spam_score: 1.4
X-Spam_score_int: 14
X-Spam_bar: +
X-Spam_report: Spam detection software, running on the system "pakkun.mirky.net", has
	identified this incoming email as possible spam.  The original message
	has been attached to this so you can view it (if it isn't spam) or label
	similar future email.  If you have any questions, see
	the administrator of that system for details.
	Content preview:  Andres, I think the author's (rather obvious) point was
	that Russia is quick to grant acceptance of elections won by falsehood.
	Regardless, while the Supreme Leader does indeed have real power, the
	President is hardly a figurehead. He's the public face of the regime,
	and it appears segments of the security forces are more loyal to him
	than to the clerics. Indeed, the veneer of clerical rule seems to be
	vanishing, replaced by raw fascism. Also, incidentally, the Ukrainian
	President is now constitutionally less powerful than he used to be.
	Molobo, it's not just students in Tehran. From The Economist: Protests
	are also reported in other cities, including Tabriz, Mashad and Rasht.
	Plastic bullets were reportedly used on crowds of students at
	universities in Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz. [...] 
	Content analysis details:   (1.4 points, 5.0 required)
	pts rule name              description
	---- ---------------------- --------------------------------------------------
	-2.6 BAYES_00               BODY: Bayesian spam probability is 0 to 1%
	[score: 0.0003]
	0.0 HTML_MESSAGE           BODY: HTML included in message
	1.4 HTML_10_20             BODY: Message is 10% to 20% HTML
	0.2 DNS_FROM_RFC_ABUSE     RBL: Envelope sender in abuse.rfc-ignorant.org
	1.7 DNS_FROM_RFC_POST      RBL: Envelope sender in
	postmaster.rfc-ignorant.org
	0.7 AWL                    AWL: From: address is in the auto white-list


--===============4313195708950901456==
Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="0-1163539827-1245260332=:28977"


--0-1163539827-1245260332=:28977
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

Andres, I think the author's (rather obvious) point was that Russia is quic=
k to grant acceptance of elections won by falsehood. Regardless, while the =
Supreme Leader does indeed have real power, the President is hardly a figur=
ehead. He's the public face of the regime, and it appears segments of the s=
ecurity forces are more loyal to him than to the clerics. Indeed, the venee=
r of clerical rule seems to be vanishing, replaced by raw fascism. Also, in=
cidentally, the Ukrainian President is now constitutionally less powerful t=
han he used to be.
Molobo, it's not just students in Tehran. From The Economist:
Protests are also reported in other cities, including Tabriz, Mashad and Ra=
sht. Plastic bullets were reportedly used on crowds of students at universi=
ties in Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz.

And from Time:
Mousavi's support ranges from the urban middle class, students and the inte=
llectuals who previously brought the reform movement to power to many peopl=
e of humble backgrounds, for whom Ahmadinejad's triumphalist economic claim=
s simply don't ring true. They know the economy has gotten worse on his wat=
ch because they have been the most vulnerable to its downturn. Ahmadinejad =
may go on TV and cite statistics to prove that things are getting better, b=
ut they're the ones who are unable to marry because they can never afford t=
o get their own homes. So there's no easy demographic breakdown between the=
 two sides.

And The New Yorker:
Culture wars and deep polarities tear at Iranian society, but they are not =
as binary as they are often painted. Iran has a traditional and a modern lo=
wer class, a traditional and a modern middle class, even a traditional and =
a modern =C3=A9lite. The new generation of activists (students, democrats, =
feminists, journalists) comes largely from the traditional lower middle cla=
ss=E2=80=94the same demographic that brought us the Islamic Revolution in 1=
979, and no less authentic a part of the social fabric. To dismiss these Ir=
anians=E2=80=99 aspirations as the vain fancies of the isolated rich is ins=
ulting and misguided. Those =C3=A9lite North Tehranis have not been the one=
s populating rallies and prison cells. That work has been done by those who=
se lives are difficult and dangerous enough to feel that change is urgent a=
t any price. And if there is a hard core of Iranian activists who will rema=
in in Tehran=E2=80=99s mean streets in the days or weeks or months ahead, i=
t will most
 certainly not be one comprised entirely of the well-heeled few.

And this anecdote:
http://tehranbureau.com/2009/06/17/irans-rural-vote-and-election-fraud/

We don't know for certain, but it does appear Ahmadinejad lost - at least t=
he circumstantial edvidence is strong:
http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/stealing-iranian-election.html
http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/class-v-culture-wars-in-iranian.html
http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/provincial-election-returns.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/17/iran-election-turnout-figures
=0A=0A=0A      
--0-1163539827-1245260332=:28977
Content-Type: text/html; charset=utf-8
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

<table cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" border=3D"0" ><tr><td valign=3D"=
top" style=3D"font: inherit;">Andres, I think the author's (rather obvious)=
 point was that Russia is quick to grant acceptance of elections won by fal=
sehood. Regardless, while the Supreme Leader does indeed have real power, t=
he President is hardly a figurehead. He's the public face of the regime, an=
d it appears segments of the security forces are more loyal to him than to =
the clerics. Indeed, the veneer of clerical rule seems to be vanishing, rep=
laced by raw fascism. Also, incidentally, the Ukrainian President is now co=
nstitutionally less powerful than he used to be.<div><br></div><div>Molobo,=
 it's not just students in Tehran. From <span class=3D"Apple-style-span" st=
yle=3D"font-style: italic;">The Economist</span>:</div><div><br></div><div>=
Protests are also reported in other cities, including Tabriz, Mashad and Ra=
sht. Plastic bullets were reportedly used on crowds of students at universi=
ties in
 Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz.<br></div><div><br></div><div>And from <span cl=
ass=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"font-style: italic;">Time</span>:</div><d=
iv><br></div><div>Mousavi's support ranges from the urban middle class, stu=
dents and the intellectuals who previously brought the reform movement to p=
ower to many people of humble backgrounds, for whom Ahmadinejad's triumphal=
ist economic claims simply don't ring true. They know the economy has gotte=
n worse on his watch because they have been the most vulnerable to its down=
turn. Ahmadinejad may go on TV and cite statistics to prove that things are=
 getting better, but they're the ones who are unable to marry because they =
can never afford to get their own homes. So there's no easy demographic bre=
akdown between the two sides.<br></div><div><br></div><div>And <span class=
=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"font-style: italic;">The New Yorker</span>:<=
/div><div><br></div><div>Culture wars and deep polarities tear at Iranian
 society, but they are not as binary as they are often painted. Iran has a =
traditional and a modern lower class, a traditional and a modern middle cla=
ss, even a traditional and a modern =C3=A9lite. The new generation of activ=
ists (students, democrats, feminists, journalists) comes largely from the t=
raditional lower middle class=E2=80=94the same demographic that brought us =
the Islamic Revolution in 1979, and no less authentic a part of the social =
fabric. To dismiss these Iranians=E2=80=99 aspirations as the vain fancies =
of the isolated rich is insulting and misguided. Those =C3=A9lite North Teh=
ranis have not been the ones populating rallies and prison cells. That work=
 has been done by those whose lives are difficult and dangerous enough to f=
eel that change is urgent at any price. And if there is a hard core of Iran=
ian activists who will remain in Tehran=E2=80=99s mean streets in the days =
or weeks or months ahead, it will most certainly not be one comprised entir=
ely of the
 well-heeled few.<br></div><div><br></div><div>And this anecdote:</div><div=
><br></div><div>http://tehranbureau.com/2009/06/17/irans-rural-vote-and-ele=
ction-fraud/<br></div><div><br></div><div>We don't know for certain, but it=
 does appear Ahmadinejad lost - at least the circumstantial edvidence is st=
rong:</div><div><br></div><div>http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/stealing-ira=
nian-election.html<br></div><div>http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/class-v-cu=
lture-wars-in-iranian.html<br></div><div>http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/pr=
ovincial-election-returns.html<br></div><div>http://www.guardian.co.uk/worl=
d/2009/jun/17/iran-election-turnout-figures<br></div></td></tr></table><br>=
=0A=0A      
--0-1163539827-1245260332=:28977--


--===============4313195708950901456==
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Content-Disposition: inline

_______________________________________________
Wikipedia statistics discussion list
folks@wikipedometer.net
http://wikipedometer.net/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/folks

--===============4313195708950901456==--


