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Date: Sat, 20 Jun 2009 07:31:47 +0300
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From: Dorin Cheptea <dorin.cheptea@gmail.com>
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	Content preview:  Apparently, only 5% of Iranians are students: <
	http://www.payvand.com/news/08/aug/1204.html> 5% of the *total*
	population of Iran are *university* students. As Christian pointed,
	that's 3.5 million (or even 3.6 million as the article says), and that
	is a lot of people. But then don't forget that there are many high
	school students (during the recent events in Moldova I saw first hand
	that 11 and 12 graders are super-politically active, way beyond what was
	when I was their age. I assume this is not Moldova defying
	international
	trends, but just a norm for 2000-2020 anywhere worldwide). Also, let's
	not forget that many student-age people are working but are just as
	politically active. In fact, there never was a political divide between
	students doing better or worse in school. (The political divide between
	these two categories is a result of a phenomenon of accumulation, and
	manifests itself after age 40-45, when employment and family situation
	are accounted for during the standard mid-age crisis.) [...] 
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	Content preview:  Apparently, only 5% of Iranians are students: <
	http://www.payvand.com/news/08/aug/1204.html> 5% of the *total*
	population of Iran are *university* students. As Christian pointed,
	that's 3.5 million (or even 3.6 million as the article says), and that
	is a lot of people. But then don't forget that there are many high
	school students (during the recent events in Moldova I saw first hand
	that 11 and 12 graders are super-politically active, way beyond what was
	when I was their age. I assume this is not Moldova defying international
	trends, but just a norm for 2000-2020 anywhere worldwide). Also, let's
	not forget that many student-age people are working but are just as
	politically active. In fact, there never was a political divide between
	students doing better or worse in school. (The political divide between
	these two categories is a result of a phenomenon of accumulation, and
	manifests itself after age 40-45, when employment and family situation
	are accounted for during the standard mid-age crisis.) [...] 
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Apparently, only 5% of Iranians are students: <
http://www.payvand.com/news/08/aug/1204.html>
5% of the *total* population of Iran are *university* students. As Christian
pointed, that's 3.5 million (or even 3.6 million as the article says), and
that is a lot of people. But then don't forget that there are many high
school students (during the recent events in Moldova I saw first hand that
11 and 12 graders are super-politically active, way beyond what was when I
was their age. I assume this is not Moldova defying international trends,
but just a norm for 2000-2020 anywhere worldwide). Also, let's not forget
that many student-age people are working but are just as politically active.
In fact, there never was a political divide between students doing better or
worse in school. (The political divide between these two categories is a
result of a phenomenon of accumulation, and manifests itself after age
40-45, when employment and family situation are accounted for during the
standard mid-age crisis.)

And, let me repeat the third time: 30%+ is no longer a negligible minority.
When that many people defy the system, that's way-way too much. (50% are
always quiet and respect the system.) The system is morally doomed.

About Internet censorship: yes, but they find ways to get around it
> sometimes:
>
> http://blogs.computerworld.com/four_ways_iranians_are_beating_internet_censorship
> http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2009/06/16/one-iranians-internet-experience/
>

Thank you very much. These are excellent links and can be put to practical
use. One thing I would like to point about state censorship of internet
access in some countries. In reality it looks more mundane than it is
presented in the western media.

I have seen how this "worked" in Moldova this April. Unlike China (but even
in China, I doubt this is the case to full extent), no country has resources
to employ hundreds and thousands of people to monitor county-wide internet
access. Totally blocking access from the country is out of the question.
What they do, is somehow (perhaps running some programs), they make
connections to certain sites be very slow and often result in error. After
4-5 attempts when you have waster half an our to get to one site, you simply
give up. At least 90% give up. The do the same today in Moldova to prevent
people from outside the country to access some anti-government news sites in
the country. To outsiders it seems that those sites have got cheep servers
that are not able to take care of the traffic. Again, the connection is
never fully severed, but 90% of people are discouraged to the point they do
something else.

The simplest way around this is to use proxies. All other ways assume some
dexterity with computers and/or ability and time to change settings on your
computer. You should factor into here that the majority of Facebook and
Twitter users in Iran and other countries  have to be taught how to use a
proxy (not difficult, but it has to be explained), or how to install a
program eluding blacks, etc. Also, you have to factor that maybe 50% or more
actually do not have a personal computer of their own, so don't expect them
to just be able to install any program and change global settings.

Until this April I have never used proxies before. I always had full access
from anywhere in the world I was. Then after April 8th, there were problems
with several sites, for example Facebook. I am not really a Facebook fan, I
would only access it once a month, but it was challenge for me personally to
find a way around. All I had to do was to ask my sister in France to fetch
some proxy addresses (I did not want to google for proxies from inside the
country). The second random proxy she found worked perfectly, I immediately
gained full access. And take into consideration the fact that I even had no
idea how a proxy web page looks like and what I was supposed to do there. I
do similarly today when from outside Moldova I want to access some .md
servers that are intentionally slowed down by the government. Sometimes,
they block the forums on those servers, etc. But full access can be
immediately regained if you use a proxy that you find by google-ing. There
is only one thing you should keep in mind: *if you access is slow, most
likely it is not because of a problem with the host server (we are not in
1990s any longer), but because your access is intentionally slowed down, and
you can circumvent this with an effort that lasts less than 60 seconds, you
need no brain to do this, use proxies, any 2nd grader can do this. *My
recommendation is (when there are such times in a particular country) to
send this by email to everybody you personally know in that particular
country.* *

The explanation I believe is in the fact that proxies are much simpler to
use than any anti-block program (there is nothing to install, to set, to
un-set, etc.), and that effectively tracing proxies is *practically
impossible*. In small countries like Moldova, they barely have somebody to
do the blocks for Facebook, Twitter, etc. (during the periods of political
turmoil, not permanently, otherwise it would be way too expensive), and
there is no question of somebody going after proxies. And even in China, I
suspect they go after proxies only in order to report to superiors that they
are trying this too, or when some proxy is way to visible. I don't expect
any country in the world to be able to match the level of blocks the Chinese
are attempting, so if it works in China, recommend to everybody. The biggest
challenge is actually to let the people whose access is being blocked to
know that circumvention is possible and very easy.



> Also interesting is that, while some elements of the security forces are
> hardline, the army (less powerful, it should be noted, than the
> Revolutionary Guards) seems to have remained neutral so far.
>
>
The high rate of support for Ahmadinejad in Qom and the reaction of Khomeni
yesterday actually correlate. I believe it was Napoleon that once said "The
society doesn't need a God, it needs a church." I was partially under the
impression that the religious fervor in Iran is unanimous. It seems however,
that there is a religious establichemnt there (despite Islam forbidding
this) interested in the preservation of their status quo more than in
rightoussness, morality, or justice. Just like you find Romanian priests'
appetite for money, no better it is in Shia Iran, they also want lust. Their
conservatism does not start in their minds (not because of a deep sense of
morality) or blood (not because of a sense of revenge), but in their guts
(because of a deep sense of self-preservation for their manhood duty to
provide for their families). As I said before, morality yields to hunger.
For that you don't have to be starving. Even if you are super-fat, it is
enough that your food/money supply is threatened (just threatened, not
necessarily cut), so that you convince yourself that "we don't need no
freedom, we don't need no justice, we need to be able to feed our children".
Works in Chechnya, works in Moldova, works in Iran (I mean in the religious
establishments of all these countries).

>From the historic perspective, Khomeni's failure to uphold justice and
threats against the (milllions of !) demonstrators will in time contribute
to the destruction of their islamic theocracy. If only the wast was able to
exploit this better, it could bring Ahmedinejad and others to their knees.
But the Obama-like cowards are... well, cowards. Even CNN started to
criticize him quite sharply, and now all Democrats in the Congress are
tougher on Iran than him. 3-4 other such blunders and Obama's second term is
out of question.

--00504502c97a7dafc6046cc01e72
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<span class=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse; ">Appa=
rently, only 5% of Iranians are students: &lt;<a href=3D"http://www.payvand=
.com/news/08/aug/1204.html" target=3D"_blank" style=3D"color: rgb(42, 93, 1=
76); ">http://www.payvand.com/news/08/aug/1204.html</a>&gt;</span><div>
<span class=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse;"><br><=
/span></div><div><span class=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"border-collapse:=
 collapse;">5% of the <i>total</i> population of Iran are <i>university</i>=
 students. As Christian pointed, that&#39;s 3.5 million (or even 3.6 millio=
n as the article says), and that is a lot of people. But then don&#39;t for=
get that there are many high school students (during the recent events in M=
oldova I saw first hand that 11 and 12 graders are super-politically active=
, way beyond what was when I was their age. I assume this is not Moldova de=
fying international trends, but just a norm for 2000-2020 anywhere worldwid=
e). Also, let&#39;s not forget that many student-age people are working but=
 are just as politically active. In fact, there never was a political divid=
e between students doing better or worse in school. (The political divide b=
etween these two categories is a result of a phenomenon of accumulation, an=
d manifests itself after age 40-45, when employment and family situation ar=
e accounted for during the standard mid-age crisis.) =A0</span></div>
<div><span class=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"border-collapse: collapse;">=
<br></span></div><div><span class=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"border-coll=
apse: collapse; ">And, let me repeat the third time: 30%+ is no longer a ne=
gligible minority. When that many people defy the system, that&#39;s way-wa=
y too much. (50% are always quiet and respect the system.) The system is mo=
rally doomed.<br>
</span></div><div><br><div class=3D"gmail_quote"><blockquote class=3D"gmail=
_quote" style=3D"margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:=
1ex;"><table cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" border=3D"0"><tbody><tr><t=
d valign=3D"top" style=3D"font:inherit">
<div><div>About Internet censorship: yes, but they find ways to get around =
it sometimes:</div><div><a href=3D"http://blogs.computerworld.com/four_ways=
_iranians_are_beating_internet_censorship" target=3D"_blank">http://blogs.c=
omputerworld.com/four_ways_iranians_are_beating_internet_censorship</a><br>
</div><div><a href=3D"http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2009/06/16/one-iranians-i=
nternet-experience/" target=3D"_blank">http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2009/06/=
16/one-iranians-internet-experience/</a><br></div><div></div></div></td></t=
r>
</tbody></table></blockquote><div><br></div><div>Thank you very much. These=
 are excellent links and can be put to practical use. One thing I would lik=
e to point about state censorship of internet access in some countries. In =
reality it looks more mundane than it is presented in the western media.=A0=
</div>
<div><br></div><div>I have seen how this &quot;worked&quot; in Moldova this=
 April. Unlike China (but even in China, I doubt this is the case to full e=
xtent), no country has resources to employ hundreds and thousands of people=
 to monitor county-wide internet access. Totally blocking access from the c=
ountry is out of the question. What they do, is somehow (perhaps running so=
me programs), they make connections to certain sites be very slow and often=
 result in error. After 4-5 attempts when you have waster half an our to ge=
t to one site, you simply give up. At least 90% give up. The do the same to=
day in Moldova to prevent people from outside the country to access some an=
ti-government news sites in the country. To outsiders it seems that those s=
ites have got cheep servers that are not able to take care of the traffic. =
Again, the connection is never fully severed, but 90% of people are discour=
aged to the point they do something else.</div>
<div><br></div><div>The simplest way around this is to use proxies. All oth=
er ways assume some dexterity with computers and/or ability and time to cha=
nge settings on your computer. You should factor into here that the majorit=
y of Facebook and Twitter users in Iran and other countries =A0have to be t=
aught how to use a proxy (not difficult, but it has to be explained), or ho=
w to install a program eluding blacks, etc. Also, you have to factor that m=
aybe 50% or more actually do not have a personal computer of their own, so =
don&#39;t expect them to just be able to install any program and change glo=
bal settings.=A0</div>
<div><br></div><div>Until this April I have never used proxies before. I al=
ways had full access from anywhere in the world I was. Then after April 8th=
, there were problems with several sites, for example Facebook. I am not re=
ally a Facebook fan, I would only access it once a month, but it was challe=
nge for me personally to find a way around. All I had to do was to ask my s=
ister in France to fetch some proxy addresses (I did not want to google for=
 proxies from inside the country). The second random proxy she found worked=
 perfectly, I immediately gained full access. And take into consideration t=
he fact that I even had no idea how a proxy web page looks like and what I =
was supposed to do there. I do similarly today when from outside Moldova I =
want to access some .md servers that are intentionally slowed down by the g=
overnment. Sometimes, they block the forums on those servers, etc. But full=
 access can be immediately regained if you use a proxy that you find by goo=
gle-ing. There is only one thing you should keep in mind: <i>if you access =
is slow, most likely it is not because of a problem with the host server (w=
e are not in 1990s any longer), but because your access is intentionally sl=
owed down, and you can circumvent this with an effort that lasts less than =
60 seconds, you need no brain to do this, use proxies, any 2nd grader can d=
o this. </i>My recommendation is (when there are such times in a particular=
 country) to send this by email to everybody you personally know in that pa=
rticular country.<i>=A0</i></div>
<div><br></div><div>The explanation I believe is in the fact that proxies a=
re much simpler to use than any anti-block program (there is nothing to ins=
tall, to set, to un-set, etc.), and that effectively tracing proxies is <i>=
practically impossible</i>. In small countries like Moldova, they barely ha=
ve somebody to do the blocks for Facebook, Twitter, etc. (during the period=
s of political turmoil, not permanently, otherwise it would be way too expe=
nsive), and there is no question of somebody going after proxies. And even =
in China, I suspect they go after proxies only in order to report to superi=
ors that they are trying this too, or when some proxy is way to visible. I =
don&#39;t expect any country in the world to be able to match the level of =
blocks the Chinese are attempting, so if it works in China, recommend to ev=
erybody. The biggest challenge is actually to let the people whose access i=
s being blocked to know that circumvention is possible and very easy.</div>
<div><br></div><div>=A0</div><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"mar=
gin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex;"><table cellspa=
cing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" border=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td valign=3D"top" sty=
le=3D"font:inherit">
<div><div>Also interesting is that, while some elements of the security for=
ces are hardline, the army (less powerful, it should be noted, than the Rev=
olutionary Guards) seems to have remained neutral so far.</div></div></td>
</tr></tbody></table><br></blockquote></div><br></div><div>The high rate of=
 support for Ahmadinejad in Qom and the reaction of Khomeni yesterday actua=
lly correlate. I believe it was Napoleon that once said &quot;The society d=
oesn&#39;t need a God, it needs a church.&quot; I was partially under the i=
mpression that the religious fervor in Iran is unanimous. It seems however,=
 that there is a religious establichemnt there (despite Islam forbidding th=
is) interested in the preservation of their status quo more than in rightou=
ssness, morality, or justice. Just like you find Romanian priests&#39; appe=
tite for money, no better it is in Shia Iran, they also want lust. Their co=
nservatism does not start in their=A0minds (not because of a deep sense of =
morality) or=A0blood (not because of a sense of revenge), but in their guts=
 (because of a deep sense of self-preservation for their manhood duty to pr=
ovide for their families). As I said before, morality yields to hunger. For=
 that you don&#39;t have to be starving. Even if you are super-fat, it is e=
nough that your food/money supply is threatened (just threatened, not neces=
sarily cut), so that you convince yourself that &quot;we don&#39;t need no =
freedom, we don&#39;t need no justice, we need to be able to feed our child=
ren&quot;. Works in Chechnya, works in Moldova, works in Iran (I mean in th=
e religious establishments of all these countries).</div>
<div><br></div><div>From the historic perspective, Khomeni&#39;s failure to=
 uphold justice and threats against the (milllions of !) demonstrators will=
 in time contribute to the destruction of their islamic theocracy. If only =
the wast was able to exploit this better, it could bring Ahmedinejad and ot=
hers to their knees. But the Obama-like cowards are... well, cowards. Even =
CNN started to criticize him quite sharply, and now all Democrats in the Co=
ngress are tougher on Iran than him. 3-4 other such blunders and Obama&#39;=
s second term is out of question.</div>

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