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Date: Thu, 18 Jun 2009 15:32:18 +0200
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From: Molobo Molobo <molobus@gmail.com>
To: Wikipedia statistics <folks@wikipedometer.net>
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	Content preview:  Well... New Yorker has its own ideas, I certainly
	wouldn't call it uninvolved in politics when it comes to Middle East. I
	really recommend the Stratfor article which offers a more thoughtfull
	analysis.
	http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090615_western_misconceptions_meet_iranian_reality
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Subject: Re: [WPM] Russia and Iran
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	Content preview:  Well... New Yorker has its own ideas, I certainly
	wouldn't call it uninvolved in politics when it comes to Middle East. I
	really recommend the Stratfor article which offers a more thoughtfull
	analysis.
	http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090615_western_misconceptions_meet_iranian_reality
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Well... New Yorker has its own ideas, I certainly wouldn't call it
uninvolved in politics when it comes to Middle East. I really recommend the
Stratfor article which offers a more thoughtfull analysis.
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090615_western_misconceptions_meet_iranian=
_reality

Mind that that most reporters have contact to a very narrow group of
people(students, professors, politicians) that do not represent the whole o=
f
society. And for what is worth-while the elections in Belarus Iran no doubt
are subject to manipulation there is no doubt that in both countries the
rulling elites enjouy a majority of support.
Remember that those reporters as well have their own biases and may be not
objective.
And those reports confirm that the opposition is very narrow-students, urba=
n
middle class and intelectuals-I don't think that those people represent the
majority of Iranian society...

"Ahmadinejad may go on TV and cite statistics to prove that things are
getting better, but they're the ones who are unable to marry because they
can never afford to get their own homes"
Amusingly, while we are not a islamic theocracy we face the same problem in
Poland ;]
And I believe Spain has it as well.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28179360/
"Daniel Lostao, president of the state-financed Youth Council, an umbrella
organization of Spanish youth groups, said young people in Spain face
daunting challenges =97 soaring unemployment, low salaries and difficulty i=
n
leaving the family nest because of expensive housing."
*
We don't know for certain, but it does appear Ahmadinejad lost - at least
the circumstantial edvidence is strong:*

Well again..multiple sources in the West think he really won. And those
sources aren't very strong, certainly using Guardian isn't the best option
;]
"The new generation of activists (students, democrats, feminists,
journalists) "
And how many students, feminists and journalists are there in Iran ?



2009/6/17 Christian Suciu <christiansuciu@yahoo.com>

> Andres, I think the author's (rather obvious) point was that Russia is
> quick to grant acceptance of elections won by falsehood. Regardless, whil=
e
> the Supreme Leader does indeed have real power, the President is hardly a
> figurehead. He's the public face of the regime, and it appears segments o=
f
> the security forces are more loyal to him than to the clerics. Indeed, th=
e
> veneer of clerical rule seems to be vanishing, replaced by raw fascism.
> Also, incidentally, the Ukrainian President is now constitutionally less
> powerful than he used to be.
> Molobo, it's not just students in Tehran. From The Economist:
>
> Protests are also reported in other cities, including Tabriz, Mashad and
> Rasht. Plastic bullets were reportedly used on crowds of students at
> universities in Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz.
>
> And from Time:
>
> Mousavi's support ranges from the urban middle class, students and the
> intellectuals who previously brought the reform movement to power to many
> people of humble backgrounds, for whom Ahmadinejad's triumphalist economi=
c
> claims simply don't ring true. They know the economy has gotten worse on =
his
> watch because they have been the most vulnerable to its downturn.
> Ahmadinejad may go on TV and cite statistics to prove that things are
> getting better, but they're the ones who are unable to marry because they
> can never afford to get their own homes. So there's no easy demographic
> breakdown between the two sides.
>
> And The New Yorker:
>
> Culture wars and deep polarities tear at Iranian society, but they are no=
t
> as binary as they are often painted. Iran has a traditional and a modern
> lower class, a traditional and a modern middle class, even a traditional =
and
> a modern =E9lite.
>


> comes largely from the traditional lower middle class=97the same demograp=
hic
> that brought us the Islamic Revolution in 1979, and no less authentic a p=
art
> of the social fabric. To dismiss these Iranians=92 aspirations as the vai=
n
> fancies of the isolated rich is insulting and misguided. Those =E9lite No=
rth
> Tehranis have not been the ones populating rallies and prison cells. That
> work has been done by those whose lives are difficult and dangerous enoug=
h
> to feel that change is urgent at any price. And if there is a hard core o=
f
> Iranian activists who will remain in Tehran=92s mean streets in the days =
or
> weeks or months ahead, it will most certainly not be one comprised entire=
ly
> of the well-heeled few.
>
> And this anecdote:
>
> http://tehranbureau.com/2009/06/17/irans-rural-vote-and-election-fraud/
>
> We don't know for certain, but it does appear Ahmadinejad lost - at least
> the circumstantial edvidence is strong:
>
> http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/stealing-iranian-election.html
> http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/class-v-culture-wars-in-iranian.html
> http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/provincial-election-returns.html
> http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/17/iran-election-turnout-figures
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Wikipedia statistics discussion list
> folks@wikipedometer.net
> http://wikipedometer.net/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/folks
>
>

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Well... New Yorker has its own ideas, I certainly wouldn&#39;t call it unin=
volved in politics when it comes to Middle East. I really recommend the Str=
atfor article which offers a more thoughtfull analysis.<br><a href=3D"http:=
//www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090615_western_misconceptions_meet_iranian_real=
ity">http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090615_western_misconceptions_meet_ir=
anian_reality</a><br>
<br>Mind that that most reporters have contact to a very narrow group of pe=
ople(students, professors, politicians) that do not represent the whole of =
society. And for what is worth-while the elections in Belarus Iran no doubt=
 are subject to manipulation there is no doubt that in both countries the r=
ulling elites enjouy a majority of support. <br>
Remember that those reporters as well have their own biases and may be not =
objective.<br>And those reports confirm that the opposition is very narrow-=
students, urban middle class and intelectuals-I don&#39;t think that those =
people represent the majority of Iranian society...<br>
<br>&quot;Ahmadinejad may go on TV and cite statistics to prove that things=
 are
getting better, but they&#39;re the ones who are unable to marry because
they can never afford to get their own homes&quot;<br>Amusingly, while we a=
re not a islamic theocracy we face the same problem in Poland ;]<br>And I b=
elieve Spain has it as well.<br><a href=3D"http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/2817=
9360/">http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28179360/</a><br>
&quot;Daniel Lostao, president of the state-financed Youth Council, an
umbrella organization of Spanish youth groups, said young people in
Spain face daunting challenges =97 soaring unemployment, low salaries and
difficulty in leaving the family nest because of expensive housing.&quot;<b=
r><i><br>We don&#39;t know for certain, but it does appear Ahmadinejad lost=
 - at least the circumstantial edvidence is strong:</i><br><br>Well again..=
multiple sources in the West think he really won. And those sources aren&#3=
9;t very strong, certainly using Guardian isn&#39;t the best option ;]<br>
&quot;The new generation of activists (students, democrats, feminists, jour=
nalists) &quot;<br>And how many students, feminists and journalists are the=
re in Iran ?<br><br><br><br><div class=3D"gmail_quote">2009/6/17 Christian =
Suciu <span dir=3D"ltr">&lt;<a href=3D"mailto:christiansuciu@yahoo.com">chr=
istiansuciu@yahoo.com</a>&gt;</span><br>
<blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, =
204, 204); margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; padding-left: 1ex;"><table border=3D"=
0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td style=3D"font-family:=
 inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit;=
 font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-=
stretch: inherit;" valign=3D"top">
Andres, I think the author&#39;s (rather obvious) point was that Russia is =
quick to grant acceptance of elections won by falsehood. Regardless, while =
the Supreme Leader does indeed have real power, the President is hardly a f=
igurehead. He&#39;s the public face of the regime, and it appears segments =
of the security forces are more loyal to him than to the clerics. Indeed, t=
he veneer of clerical rule seems to be vanishing, replaced by raw fascism. =
Also, incidentally, the Ukrainian President is now constitutionally less po=
werful than he used to be.<div>
<br></div><div>Molobo, it&#39;s not just students in Tehran. From <span sty=
le=3D"font-style: italic;">The Economist</span>:</div><div><br></div><div>P=
rotests are also reported in other cities, including Tabriz, Mashad and Ras=
ht. Plastic bullets were reportedly used on crowds of students at universit=
ies in
 Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz.<br></div><div><br></div><div>And from <span st=
yle=3D"font-style: italic;">Time</span>:</div><div><br></div><div>Mousavi&#=
39;s support ranges from the urban middle class, students and the intellect=
uals who previously brought the reform movement to power to many people of =
humble backgrounds, for whom Ahmadinejad&#39;s triumphalist economic claims=
 simply don&#39;t ring true. They know the economy has gotten worse on his =
watch because they have been the most vulnerable to its downturn. Ahmadinej=
ad may go on TV and cite statistics to prove that things are getting better=
, but they&#39;re the ones who are unable to marry because they can never a=
fford to get their own homes. So there&#39;s no easy demographic breakdown =
between the two sides.<br>
</div><div><br></div><div>And <span style=3D"font-style: italic;">The New Y=
orker</span>:</div><div><br></div><div>Culture wars and deep polarities tea=
r at Iranian
 society, but they are not as binary as they are often painted. Iran has a =
traditional and a modern lower class, a traditional and a modern middle cla=
ss, even a traditional and a modern =E9lite.</div></td></tr></tbody></table=
>
</blockquote><div>=A0</div><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"borde=
r-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; padding-le=
ft: 1ex;"><table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0"><tbody><t=
r><td style=3D"font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inh=
erit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-=
size-adjust: inherit; font-stretch: inherit;" valign=3D"top">
<div>comes largely from the traditional lower middle class=97the same demog=
raphic that brought us the Islamic Revolution in 1979, and no less authenti=
c a part of the social fabric. To dismiss these Iranians=92 aspirations as =
the vain fancies of the isolated rich is insulting and misguided. Those =E9=
lite North Tehranis have not been the ones populating rallies and prison ce=
lls. That work has been done by those whose lives are difficult and dangero=
us enough to feel that change is urgent at any price. And if there is a har=
d core of Iranian activists who will remain in Tehran=92s mean streets in t=
he days or weeks or months ahead, it will most certainly not be one compris=
ed entirely of the
 well-heeled few.<br></div><div><br></div><div>And this anecdote:</div><div=
><br></div><div><a href=3D"http://tehranbureau.com/2009/06/17/irans-rural-v=
ote-and-election-fraud/" target=3D"_blank">http://tehranbureau.com/2009/06/=
17/irans-rural-vote-and-election-fraud/</a><br>
</div><div><br></div><div>We don&#39;t know for certain, but it does appear=
 Ahmadinejad lost - at least the circumstantial edvidence is strong:</div><=
div><br></div><div><a href=3D"http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/stealing-iran=
ian-election.html" target=3D"_blank">http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/steali=
ng-iranian-election.html</a><br>
</div><div><a href=3D"http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/class-v-culture-wars-=
in-iranian.html" target=3D"_blank">http://www.juancole.com/2009/06/class-v-=
culture-wars-in-iranian.html</a><br></div><div><a href=3D"http://www.juanco=
le.com/2009/06/provincial-election-returns.html" target=3D"_blank">http://w=
ww.juancole.com/2009/06/provincial-election-returns.html</a><br>
</div><div><a href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/17/iran-elec=
tion-turnout-figures" target=3D"_blank">http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/200=
9/jun/17/iran-election-turnout-figures</a><br></div></td></tr></tbody></tab=
le>
<br>

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