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Date: Thu, 9 Jul 2009 17:30:39 -0700 (PDT)
From: Christian Suciu <christiansuciu@yahoo.com>
To: folks@wikipedometer.net
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	Content preview:  What you say makes a lot of sense, Radek, but allow me
	to probe a couple of points more deeply. 1. Sudden economic slowdown is
	precisely what has often led to unrest* - not poverty by itself
	(otherwise much of Africa would be in continuous turmoil. Well, it is, 
	but there's more than poverty behind Africa's wars). Of course, the
	Great Depression leading to Hitler is the most famous (if rather
	oversimplified) account. The legitimacy of the rulers of China and even
	more so of Russia lies in their ability to deliver prosperity, and to
	keep delivering it at levels that have become customary. "We're doing
	better than in 2000" wouldn't be a very convincing thing for Putin to
	say, nor for Hu Jintao. It's like suddenly slowing down a car from 200
	km/h to 50 -- much more of a shock than going from 10 to 5. 2.
	Increased
	prosperity has tended to lead to some demand for increased civil and
	political liberties. And China today is certainly more free than it was
	in, say, 1970, but I wonder if the authorities will be able to keep pace
	(should these demands continue) and keep sole power at the same time. I
	suppose the discrediting of Maoism could also have an impact, at least
	at the elite level, though arguably Maoism has been discredited already
	for 25-30 years. 3. I do wonder, though, if China's vast size won't
	simply be too much for the environment to handle. England burning coal
	in the 1820s just doesn't seem to be at the same level as China
	emitting
	far more toxic poisons today. Just a thought; I do defer to your
	expertise. *One interesting exception is Romania, which did quite well
	in the 1970s before experiencing a sharp downturn in 1980-83, and then
	stagnating until 1989. (And then, once Communism fell, doing
	considerably worse for many years, with per capita GDP only apparently
	reaching 1989 levels in 2005 or 2007 -- and now it's falling yet
	again.)
	But social unrest didn't arrive in 1981, '82 or '83. (Or '84,
	'85...those were very long years.) Instead, people used their personal
	networks to get by, to get the meat and [...] 
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	Content preview:  What you say makes a lot of sense, Radek, but allow me
	to probe a couple of points more deeply. 1. Sudden economic slowdown is
	precisely what has often led to unrest* - not poverty by itself
	(otherwise much of Africa would be in continuous turmoil. Well, it is,
	but there's more than poverty behind Africa's wars). Of course, the
	Great Depression leading to Hitler is the most famous (if rather
	oversimplified) account. The legitimacy of the rulers of China and even
	more so of Russia lies in their ability to deliver prosperity, and to
	keep delivering it at levels that have become customary. "We're doing
	better than in 2000" wouldn't be a very convincing thing for Putin to
	say, nor for Hu Jintao. It's like suddenly slowing down a car from 200
	km/h to 50 -- much more of a shock than going from 10 to 5. 2. Increased
	prosperity has tended to lead to some demand for increased civil and
	political liberties. And China today is certainly more free than it was
	in, say, 1970, but I wonder if the authorities will be able to keep pace
	(should these demands continue) and keep sole power at the same time. I
	suppose the discrediting of Maoism could also have an impact, at least
	at the elite level, though arguably Maoism has been discredited already
	for 25-30 years. 3. I do wonder, though, if China's vast size won't
	simply be too much for the environment to handle. England burning coal
	in the 1820s just doesn't seem to be at the same level as China emitting
	far more toxic poisons today. Just a thought; I do defer to your
	expertise. *One interesting exception is Romania, which did quite well
	in the 1970s before experiencing a sharp downturn in 1980-83, and then
	stagnating until 1989. (And then, once Communism fell, doing
	considerably worse for many years, with per capita GDP only apparently
	reaching 1989 levels in 2005 or 2007 -- and now it's falling yet again.)
	But social unrest didn't arrive in 1981, '82 or '83. (Or '84,
	'85...those were very long years.) Instead, people used their personal
	networks to get by, to get the meat and [...] 
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What you say makes a lot of sense, Radek, but allow me to probe a couple of=
 points more deeply.
1. Sudden=A0economic slowdown=A0is precisely what has often led to unrest* =
- not poverty by itself (otherwise much of Africa would be in continuous tu=
rmoil. Well, it is, but there's more than poverty behind Africa's wars). Of=
 course, the=A0Great Depression=A0leading to Hitler is the most famous (if =
rather oversimplified) account. The legitimacy of the rulers of=A0China=A0a=
nd even more so of=A0Russia=A0lies in their ability to deliver prosperity, =
and to keep delivering it at levels that have become customary. "We're doin=
g better than in 2000" wouldn't be a very convincing thing for Putin to say=
, nor for=A0Hu Jintao.
It's like suddenly slowing down a car from 200 km/h to 50 -- much more of a=
 shock than going from 10 to 5.
2. Increased prosperity has tended to lead to=A0some=A0demand for increased=
 civil and political liberties. And China today is certainly more free than=
 it was in, say, 1970, but I wonder if the authorities will be able to keep=
 pace (should these demands continue) and keep sole power at the same time.=
 I suppose the discrediting of Maoism could also have an impact, at least a=
t the elite level, though arguably Maoism has been discredited already for =
25-30 years.
3. I do wonder, though, if China's vast size won't simply be too much for t=
he environment to handle.=A0England=A0burning coal in the 1820s just doesn'=
t seem to be at the same level as China emitting far more toxic poisons tod=
ay. Just a thought; I do defer to your expertise.
*One interesting exception is Romania, which did quite well in the 1970s be=
fore experiencing a sharp downturn in 1980-83, and then stagnating until 19=
89. (And then, once Communism fell, doing considerably worse for many years=
, with per capita GDP only apparently reaching 1989 levels in 2005 or 2007 =
-- and now it's falling yet again.) But=A0social unrest=A0didn't arrive in =
1981, '82 or '83. (Or '84, '85...those were very long years.) Instead, peop=
le used their personal networks to get by, to get the meat and bread and wh=
atever else they were accustomed to. And if they couldn't get them, they sa=
w it as their own fault, because they weren't wily enough - anger was not (=
openly, at any rate) turned against the regime. It was only in 1988-89 that=
 even this system started to break down, which accelerated discontent and e=
ventually helped spark a revolution.=0A=0A=0A      
--0-172640894-1247185839=:17491
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<table cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" border=3D"0" ><tr><td valign=3D"=
top" style=3D"font: inherit;"><span class=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"fon=
t-family: arial, helvetica, clean, sans-serif; border-collapse: collapse; l=
ine-height: 15px; -webkit-border-horizontal-spacing: 2px; -webkit-border-ve=
rtical-spacing: 2px; ">What you say makes a lot of sense, Radek, but allow =
me to probe a couple of points more deeply.<div style=3D"margin-top: 0px; m=
argin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; p=
adding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; line-height: 1.2=
em; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; outline-color: initial; ">=
<br style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none; outline-width: initia=
l; outline-color: initial; "></div><div style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-ri=
ght: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-r=
ight: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; line-height: 1.2em; outl=
ine-style:
 none; outline-width: initial; outline-color: initial; ">1. Sudden&nbsp;<sp=
an class=3D"yshortcuts" id=3D"lw_1247185828_0" style=3D"line-height: 1.2em;=
 outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; outline-color: initial; curso=
r: pointer; background-image: initial; background-repeat: initial; backgrou=
nd-attachment: initial; -webkit-background-clip: initial; -webkit-backgroun=
d-origin: initial; background-color: transparent; border-bottom-style: none=
; border-bottom-width: initial; border-bottom-color: initial; background-po=
sition: initial initial; ">economic slowdown</span>&nbsp;is precisely what =
has often led to unrest* - not poverty by itself (otherwise much of Africa =
would be in continuous turmoil. Well, it is, but there's more than poverty =
behind Africa's wars). Of course, the&nbsp;<span class=3D"yshortcuts" id=3D=
"lw_1247185828_1" style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none; outline=
-width: initial; outline-color: initial; ">Great Depression</span>&nbsp;lea=
ding
 to Hitler is the most famous (if rather oversimplified) account. The legit=
imacy of the rulers of&nbsp;<span class=3D"yshortcuts" id=3D"lw_1247185828_=
2" style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial=
; outline-color: initial; ">China</span>&nbsp;and even more so of&nbsp;<spa=
n class=3D"yshortcuts" id=3D"lw_1247185828_3" style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; =
outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; outline-color: initial; ">Russ=
ia</span>&nbsp;lies in their ability to deliver prosperity, and to keep del=
ivering it at levels that have become customary. "We're doing better than i=
n 2000" wouldn't be a very convincing thing for Putin to say, nor for&nbsp;=
<span class=3D"yshortcuts" id=3D"lw_1247185828_4" style=3D"line-height: 1.2=
em; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; outline-color: initial; bo=
rder-bottom-style: dashed; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: r=
gb(0, 102, 204); cursor: pointer; ">Hu Jintao</span>.</div><div style=3D"ma=
rgin-top:
 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top:=
 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; line-heig=
ht: 1.2em; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; outline-color: init=
ial; "><br style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none; outline-width:=
 initial; outline-color: initial; "></div><div style=3D"margin-top: 0px; ma=
rgin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; pa=
dding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; line-height: 1.2e=
m; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; outline-color: initial; ">I=
t's like suddenly slowing down a car from 200 km/h to 50 -- much more of a =
shock than going from 10 to 5.</div><div style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-r=
ight: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-=
right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; line-height: 1.2em; out=
line-style: none; outline-width: initial; outline-color: initial; "><br
 style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; =
outline-color: initial; "></div><div style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-right=
: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-righ=
t: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; line-height: 1.2em; outline=
-style: none; outline-width: initial; outline-color: initial; ">2. Increase=
d prosperity has tended to lead to&nbsp;<i style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; out=
line-style: none; outline-width: initial; outline-color: initial; ">some</i=
>&nbsp;demand for increased civil and political liberties. And China today =
is certainly more free than it was in, say, 1970, but I wonder if the autho=
rities will be able to keep pace (should these demands continue) and keep s=
ole power at the same time. I suppose the discrediting of Maoism could also=
 have an impact, at least at the elite level, though arguably Maoism has be=
en discredited already for 25-30 years.</div><div style=3D"margin-top: 0px;
 margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px;=
 padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; line-height: 1=
.2em; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; outline-color: initial; =
"><br style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none; outline-width: init=
ial; outline-color: initial; "></div><div style=3D"margin-top: 0px; margin-=
right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding=
-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; line-height: 1.2em; ou=
tline-style: none; outline-width: initial; outline-color: initial; ">3. I d=
o wonder, though, if China's vast size won't simply be too much for the env=
ironment to handle.&nbsp;<span class=3D"yshortcuts" id=3D"lw_1247185828_5" =
style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; o=
utline-color: initial; ">England</span>&nbsp;burning coal in the 1820s just=
 doesn't seem to be at the same level as China emitting far more toxic pois=
ons
 today. Just a thought; I do defer to your expertise.</div><div style=3D"ma=
rgin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; pad=
ding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; =
line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; outline-co=
lor: initial; "><br style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none; outli=
ne-width: initial; outline-color: initial; "></div><div style=3D"margin-top=
: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top=
: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; line-hei=
ght: 1.2em; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; outline-color: ini=
tial; ">*One interesting exception is Romania, which did quite well in the =
1970s before experiencing a sharp downturn in 1980-83, and then stagnating =
until 1989. (And then, once Communism fell, doing considerably worse for ma=
ny years, with per capita GDP only apparently reaching 1989 levels in 2005
 or 2007 -- and now it's falling yet again.) But&nbsp;<span class=3D"yshort=
cuts" id=3D"lw_1247185828_6" style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: no=
ne; outline-width: initial; outline-color: initial; border-bottom-style: da=
shed; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 102, 204); curs=
or: pointer; ">social unrest</span>&nbsp;didn't arrive in 1981, '82 or '83.=
 (Or '84, '85...those were very long years.) Instead, people used their per=
sonal networks to get by, to get the meat and bread and whatever else they =
were accustomed to. And if they couldn't get them, they saw it as their own=
 fault, because they weren't wily enough - anger was not (openly, at any ra=
te) turned against the regime. It was only in 1988-89 that even this system=
 started to break down, which accelerated discontent and eventually helped =
spark a revolution.</div></span></td></tr></table><br>=0A=0A=0A=0A      
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