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Date: Fri, 13 Mar 2009 18:37:26 +0200
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From: Dorin Cheptea <dorin.cheptea@gmail.com>
To: Wikipedia statistics <folks@wikipedometer.net>
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	Content preview: > > > The commentators say that a true spy is
	generally
	not arrested in so much >> public light. >> > > In commenting the Simm
	case, many commenters said the same. One possible > explanation is that
	arrest of Simm changed the tradition. Another is that > since NATO was
	involved in both cases, it serves NATO's interests to make > the arrests
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	Content preview:  > > > The commentators say that a true spy is generally
	not arrested in so much >> public light. >> > > In commenting the Simm
	case, many commenters said the same. One possible > explanation is that
	arrest of Simm changed the tradition. Another is that > since NATO was
	involved in both cases, it serves NATO's interests to make > the arrests
	publically, perhaps as a way of pressure on future Russian spy >
	recruitment, as you explain. Also, NATO's been in somewhat of an >
	embarrassing situation since the Georgia affair; public arrests of
	Russian > spies might be a politically convenient balance to the
	restoration of > conferences between NATO and Russia, which were not
	supposed to be restored > until Russia pulls out of Georgian territory.
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>
>
>  The commentators say that a true spy is generally not arrested in so much
>> public light.
>>
>
> In commenting the Simm case, many commenters said the same.  One possible
> explanation is that arrest of Simm changed the tradition.  Another is that
> since NATO was involved in both cases, it serves NATO's interests to make
> the arrests publically, perhaps as a way of pressure on future Russian spy
> recruitment, as you explain.  Also, NATO's been in somewhat of an
> embarrassing situation since the Georgia affair; public arrests of Russian
> spies might be a politically convenient balance to the restoration of
> conferences between NATO and Russia, which were not supposed to be restored
> until Russia pulls out of Georgian territory.
>

I see.

Just yesterday there was a comment by Romanian President that Romania fully
supports Ukraine joining NATO. Obviously, when that would happen, Ukrainian
Army would be significantly restructured anyway.


>
> Are there any potentially open military affairs between Russia and Romania?
>  According to my map, Transnistria doesn't seem to be a neighbour of
> Romania, and IIRC, the US military bases in Romania weren't among those that
> were supposed to hold the SDI component installations.  Anything else
> relevant to this affair?
>
>

1) As far as I know, there is nothing contentious between Russia and
Romania. There is an old case of the Romanian treasure that was evacuated to
Russia in 1916 before the WWI-occupation of Bucharest by Germans, and only a
small part of it was returned to Romania after WWII. And there was also the
case of mentioning or not of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact in the basic
treaties between the two countries. But Russians won thin one. Russia
obviously opposed Romania's entrance into NATO, but couldn't do anything
about it. The first post-communist president of Romania Ion Iliescu was
somewhat pro closer political relations with Russia, but he was largely
opposed in that even among his own Social Democratic Party. Romania produces
about 50% of its gas consumption and about 30% of its oil consumption, and
was much less vulnerable than Bulgaria dring the January gas crisis. Romania
supports Nabuco pipeline (Caucasus-Turkey-Balkans-Central Europe) as opposed
to South Stream pipeline (Russia-Black Sea-Bulgaria-Serbia-Hungary), but
none of them has started to be built yet.

2) Pro-western politicians in Moldova, and some westerners want to change
the format of Transnistrian negociations from 5+2 to 7, i.e. to add EU and
USA as full members in addtion to Russia, Ukraine, OSCE, Moldova and the
breakaway authorities. The territory controlled by the breakaway authorities
(which is not exactly coincident with the left bank of the Dniester) lies
entirely between the rest of Moldova and Ukraine. The two countries have
border crossing both north and south of it. Russia has access to Tiraspol
only by air, but has to cross Ukrainian air space in the process. Or by
railway, crossing Ukraine. A UN border control force manned joitly
by Moldovans and Ukrainians verifies the flow of goods to and from
Transnistria through Ukraine. As far as I heard Transnistria considerably
reduced its export of weapons in the last years (5-6 years ago Moldova
"managed" to hit top 10 wolrd exporters of small weapons due to illegal
trade in them from Transnistria through Odessa). Romania was involved in
negociations about the conflict only in 1992, but was excluded afterwards.
Russia has 2-3 thousand troops in Transnistria (mostly around Tiraspol) and
a 1-sq km depot of ammunition near a village up north, 2 km from Ukrainian
border, still not withdrawn.

Some Moldovans and Ukrainians support a solution, or at least a reduction of
the conflict through a small scale exchange of territory. For example,
Ukrainians represent a plurality in the two northern sub-districts of
Transnistria out of 5+Tiraspol (which BTW have seen no military action in
1992), while Moldova would be interested in some land in southern
Bessarabia. There was talk in the press (in both countries) about it as
early as 1991-92, and I saw even this year, but it remained pure talk.

3) There is no SDI component in Romania. But there is potential in case USA
wants to expand it. There was speculations about this, but nothing specific.
Americans have one major air base in Romania, near the Black Sea shore. It
is generally used for transportation to and from the middle east.

That's about it. Did I miss something?

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<div class=3D"gmail_quote">
<blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 1ex; MARGIN: 0px 0=
px 0px 0.8ex; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid">
<div class=3D"gmail_quote">
<div class=3D"im">
<div><br></div>
<blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 1ex; MARGIN: 0px 0=
px 0px 0.8ex; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid">
<div class=3D"gmail_quote">
<div>The commentators say that a true spy is generally not arrested in so m=
uch public light.</div></div></blockquote>
<div><br></div></div>
<div>In commenting the Simm case, many commenters said the same. =A0One pos=
sible explanation is that arrest of Simm changed the tradition. =A0Another =
is that since NATO was involved in both cases, it serves NATO&#39;s interes=
ts to make the arrests publically, perhaps as a way of pressure on future R=
ussian spy recruitment, as you explain. =A0Also, NATO&#39;s been in somewha=
t of an embarrassing situation since the Georgia affair; public arrests of =
Russian spies might be a politically convenient balance to the restoration =
of conferences between NATO and Russia, which were not supposed to be resto=
red until Russia pulls out of Georgian territory.</div>
</div></blockquote>
<div>=A0</div>
<div>I see.</div>
<div>=A0</div>
<div>Just yesterday there was a comment by Romanian President that Romania =
fully supports Ukraine=A0joining NATO. Obviously, when that would happen, U=
krainian Army would be significantly restructured anyway.</div>
<div>=A0</div>
<blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"PADDING-LEFT: 1ex; MARGIN: 0px 0=
px 0px 0.8ex; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid">
<div class=3D"gmail_quote">
<div><span id=3D""></span></div>
<div><br></div>
<div>Are there any potentially open military affairs between Russia and Rom=
ania? =A0According to my map, Transnistria doesn&#39;t seem to be a neighbo=
ur of Romania, and IIRC, the US military bases in Romania weren&#39;t among=
 those that were supposed to hold the SDI component installations. =A0Anyth=
ing else relevant to this affair?</div>

<div>=A0</div></div></blockquote>
<div>=A0</div>
<div>1) As far as I know, there is nothing contentious between Russia and R=
omania. There is an old case of the Romanian treasure that was evacuated to=
 Russia in 1916 before the WWI-occupation of Bucharest by Germans, and only=
 a small part of it was=A0returned to Romania after WWII. And there was als=
o the case of mentioning or not of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact in the basic=
 treaties between the two countries. But Russians won thin one. Russia obvi=
ously opposed Romania&#39;s entrance into NATO, but couldn&#39;t do anythin=
g about it. The first post-communist president of Romania Ion Iliescu was s=
omewhat pro closer political relations with Russia, but he was largely oppo=
sed in that even among his own=A0Social Democratic Party. Romania produces =
about 50% of its gas consumption and about 30% of its oil consumption, and =
was much less vulnerable than Bulgaria dring the January gas crisis. Romani=
a supports Nabuco pipeline (Caucasus-Turkey-Balkans-Central Europe) as oppo=
sed to South Stream pipeline (Russia-Black Sea-Bulgaria-Serbia-Hungary), bu=
t none of them has started to be built yet.</div>

<div>=A0</div>
<div>2) Pro-western politicians in Moldova, and some westerners want to cha=
nge the format of Transnistrian negociations from 5+2 to 7, i.e. to add EU =
and USA as full members in addtion to Russia, Ukraine, OSCE, Moldova and th=
e breakaway authorities. The territory controlled by the breakaway authorit=
ies (which is not exactly coincident with the left bank of the Dniester) li=
es entirely between the rest of Moldova and Ukraine. The two countries have=
 border crossing both north and south of it. Russia has access to Tiraspol =
only by air, but has to cross Ukrainian air space in the process. Or by rai=
lway, crossing Ukraine. A UN border control force manned joitly by=A0Moldov=
ans and Ukrainians verifies the flow of goods to and from Transnistria thro=
ugh Ukraine. As far as I heard Transnistria considerably reduced its export=
 of weapons in the last years (5-6 years ago Moldova &quot;managed&quot; to=
 hit top 10 wolrd exporters of small weapons due to illegal trade in them f=
rom Transnistria through Odessa). Romania was involved in negociations abou=
t the conflict only in 1992, but was excluded afterwards. Russia has 2-3 th=
ousand troops in=A0Transnistria (mostly around Tiraspol) and a 1-sq km depo=
t of ammunition near a village up north, 2 km from Ukrainian border, still =
not withdrawn. </div>

<div>=A0</div>
<div>Some Moldovans and Ukrainians support a solution, or at least a reduct=
ion of the conflict=A0through a small scale exchange of territory. For exam=
ple, Ukrainians represent a plurality in the two northern sub-districts of =
Transnistria out of 5+Tiraspol=A0(which BTW have seen no military action in=
 1992), while Moldova would be interested in some land in southern Bessarab=
ia. There was talk in the press (in both countries) about it as early as 19=
91-92, and I saw even this year, but it remained pure talk.</div>
</div>
<div><br>3) There is no SDI component in Romania. But there is potential in=
 case USA wants to expand it. There was speculations about this, but nothin=
g specific. Americans have one major air base in Romania, near the Black Se=
a shore. It is generally used for transportation to and from the middle eas=
t. </div>

<div>=A0</div>
<div>That&#39;s about it. Did I miss something?</div>

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