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Date: Fri, 19 Jun 2009 00:17:04 -0700 (PDT)
From: Christian Suciu <christiansuciu@yahoo.com>
To: folks@wikipedometer.net
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	Content preview:  Molobo,
	I know the meme that Ahmadinejad's base is poor
	rural people. But consider: Iran is 68% urban, so he had to win some
	cities. And 70% of people are under 30, so presumably a lot are
	students, and while some are fanatics, they do have the Internet and a
	fair degree of liberties (certainly compared to Burma or Equatorial
	Guinea, or the USSR). And whenever turnout has been big (85% this year),
	reformists have won. The reformist Khatami won big in 1997, stunning the
	establishment. In 2005, they allowed more reformists to run, splitting
	the vote. A demoralised reform electorate didn't care to vote for
	Rafsanjani and stayed home. And here's the hard data:
	http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/ahmadinejads-rural-votes.html .
	In 2005, Ahmadinejad was by far a city candidate. Now, it's even, but
	the swing itself may (or may not) point to fraud. [...] 
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Subject: Re: [WPM] Russia and Iran
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	Content preview:  Molobo, I know the meme that Ahmadinejad's base is poor
	rural people. But consider: Iran is 68% urban, so he had to win some
	cities. And 70% of people are under 30, so presumably a lot are
	students, and while some are fanatics, they do have the Internet and a
	fair degree of liberties (certainly compared to Burma or Equatorial
	Guinea, or the USSR). And whenever turnout has been big (85% this year),
	reformists have won. The reformist Khatami won big in 1997, stunning the
	establishment. In 2005, they allowed more reformists to run, splitting
	the vote. A demoralised reform electorate didn't care to vote for
	Rafsanjani and stayed home. And here's the hard data:
	http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/ahmadinejads-rural-votes.html .
	In 2005, Ahmadinejad was by far a city candidate. Now, it's even, but
	the swing itself may (or may not) point to fraud. [...] 
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Molobo, I know the meme that Ahmadinejad's base is poor rural people. But c=
onsider: Iran is 68% urban, so he had to win some cities. And 70% of people=
 are under 30, so presumably a lot are students, and while some are fanatic=
s, they do have the Internet and a fair degree of liberties (certainly comp=
ared to Burma or Equatorial Guinea, or the USSR). And whenever turnout has =
been big (85% this year), reformists have won. The reformist Khatami won bi=
g in 1997, stunning the establishment. In 2005, they allowed more reformist=
s to run, splitting the vote. A demoralised reform electorate didn't care t=
o vote for Rafsanjani and stayed home.
And here's the hard data:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/ahmadinejads-rural-votes.html . In 2=
005, Ahmadinejad was by far a city candidate. Now, it's even, but the swing=
 itself may (or may not) point to fraud.

Also, let us not forget that during World War II, the Soviets treated Iran =
in not exactly a kind or respectful fashion, and Iranians remember that as =
much as the 1953 coup and US backing for the Shah. Ahmadinejad's first trip=
 after the election was to Yekaterinburg. Famed film director and Mousavi s=
pokesman=A0Mohsen Makhmalbaf immediately seized on that, accusing Ahamdinej=
ad of giving up Iran's rights in Caspian Sea and other areas in the last fo=
ur years in exchange for Russia's firm backing. He called what is happening=
 a Russian coup, and said he has information that high-ranking Russian advi=
sers are teaching Ahmadinejad's thugs how to oppress the opposition effecti=
vely.=A0Ahamdinejad can't logically=A0accuse Mousavi of being a stooge of t=
he Great Satan, but Mousavi can now=A0accuse Ahmadinejad of being a stooge =
of Moscow, and can oppose him without betraying Iranian nationalism or the =
Revolution.=0A=0A=0A      
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<table cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" border=3D"0" ><tr><td valign=3D"=
top" style=3D"font: inherit;">Molobo, I know the meme that Ahmadinejad's ba=
se is poor rural people. But consider: Iran is 68% urban, so he had to win =
some cities. And 70% of people are under 30, so presumably a lot are studen=
ts, and while some are fanatics, they do have the Internet and a <span clas=
s=3D"Apple-style-span" style=3D"font-style: italic;">fair</span> degree of =
liberties (certainly compared to Burma or Equatorial Guinea, or the USSR). =
And whenever turnout has been big (85% this year), reformists have won. The=
 reformist Khatami won big in 1997, stunning the establishment. In 2005, th=
ey allowed more reformists to run, splitting the vote. A demoralised reform=
 electorate didn't care to vote for Rafsanjani and stayed home.<div><br></d=
iv><div>And here's the hard data:</div><div><br></div><div>http://www.fivet=
hirtyeight.com/2009/06/ahmadinejads-rural-votes.html . In 2005, Ahmadinejad=
 was by
 far a city candidate. Now, it's even, but the swing itself may (or may not=
) point to fraud.<br></div><div><br></div><div>Also, let us not forget that=
 during World War II, the Soviets treated Iran in not exactly a kind or res=
pectful fashion, and Iranians remember that as much as the 1953 coup and US=
 backing for the Shah. Ahmadinejad's first trip after the election was to Y=
ekaterinburg. Famed film director and Mousavi spokesman=A0Mohsen Makhmalbaf=
 immediately seized on that, accusing Ahamdinejad of giving up Iran's right=
s in Caspian Sea and other areas in the last four years in exchange for Rus=
sia's firm backing. He called what is happening a Russian coup, and said he=
 has information that high-ranking Russian advisers are teaching Ahmadineja=
d's thugs how to oppress the opposition effectively.=A0Ahamdinejad can't lo=
gically=A0accuse Mousavi of being a stooge of the Great Satan, but Mousavi =
can now=A0accuse Ahmadinejad of being a stooge of Moscow, and can oppose
 him without betraying Iranian nationalism or the Revolution.</div></td></t=
r></table><br>=0A=0A=0A=0A      
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