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Date: Thu, 9 Jul 2009 17:58:31 -0500
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From: radek szulga <rsszulga@gmail.com>
To: Wikipedia statistics <folks@wikipedometer.net>
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	Content preview:  On the economic side, the thing is that China's been
	growing so fast (yes, some of the data is sketchy as hell but even
	assuming a generous adjustment for overstatement) that even a sudden
	economic slowdown will still mean rates of growth which leave every
	other country jealous. Also, the truth is a little bit complicated, but
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	higher standard of what constitutes "poverty" (which itself is a mark
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	progress in a way). And when people are getting rich(er) I'm not sure
	how much the fact of a decayed ideological foundation really matters.
	Also (sorry to pile on a bit but this fairly close to some of the
	things
	I study for a living) the environmental problems have been increasing
	but this has been true initially in every country that has seen large
	increases in standards of living. After a certain threshold is reached
	these countries diverted more of their resources into cleaning up (some
	of) the mess they've made while industrializing/growing and there's no
	reason to think that it'll play out differently in China. [...] 
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Subject: Re: [WPM] Xinjiang
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	Content preview:  On the economic side, the thing is that China's been
	growing so fast (yes, some of the data is sketchy as hell but even
	assuming a generous adjustment for overstatement) that even a sudden
	economic slowdown will still mean rates of growth which leave every
	other country jealous. Also, the truth is a little bit complicated, but
	in fact the huge masses of peasantry have participated in a lot of this
	prosperity. I don't have my figures handy right now but there's been a
	tremendous drop in extreme poverty (most of which is rural) in China and
	India in the past decade or two - some of these findings have been
	recently somewhat revised although a lot of that seems to be due to a
	higher standard of what constitutes "poverty" (which itself is a mark of
	progress in a way). And when people are getting rich(er) I'm not sure
	how much the fact of a decayed ideological foundation really matters.
	Also (sorry to pile on a bit but this fairly close to some of the things
	I study for a living) the environmental problems have been increasing
	but this has been true initially in every country that has seen large
	increases in standards of living. After a certain threshold is reached
	these countries diverted more of their resources into cleaning up (some
	of) the mess they've made while industrializing/growing and there's no
	reason to think that it'll play out differently in China. [...] 
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On the economic side, the thing is that China's been growing so fast (yes,
some of the data is sketchy as hell but even assuming a generous adjustment
for overstatement) that even a sudden economic slowdown will still mean
rates of growth which leave every other country jealous. Also, the truth is
a little bit complicated, but in fact the huge masses of peasantry have
participated in a lot of this prosperity. I don't have my figures handy
right now but there's been a tremendous drop in extreme poverty (most of
which is rural) in China and India in the past decade or two - some of these
findings have been recently somewhat revised although a lot of that seems to
be due to a higher standard of what constitutes "poverty" (which itself is a
mark of progress in a way). And when people are getting rich(er) I'm not
sure how much the fact of a decayed ideological foundation really matters.
Also (sorry to pile on a bit but this fairly close to some of the things I
study for a living) the environmental problems have been increasing but this
has been true initially in every country that has seen large increases in
standards of living. After a certain threshold is reached these countries
diverted more of their resources into cleaning up (some of) the mess they've
made while industrializing/growing and there's no reason to think that it'll
play out differently in China.

On the other hand the the demographic factors are a potential source of
trouble while who knows what will happen with N.Korea - but that's always
been the case. The Internet might make local government more accountable and
make some positive micro-changes but I doubt it will have a regime-changing
effect.

Radek


2009/7/9 Christian Suciu <christiansuciu@yahoo.com>

> I agree the protests alone won't dislodge the current regime. China has
> the advantage of being some 92% Han, versus 51% Russian for the USSR in 1989
> (and 70% Russian + Ukrainian + Belarusian). Still, restive minorities *and
> * a decayed ideological foundation *and* a sudden economic slowdown *and* a
> huge mass of peasantry that never shared in the prosperity (evidently not a
> factor in Singapore) *and* problems in the industrial sector (including
> looming environmental catastrophe) *and* a demographic crisis (plummeting
> birthrates and a vast excess of males) *and* regional instability (Korea)
> *and* wild-card factors such as the Internet* and the spread of
> Christianity might amount to something -- possibly.
> *I'm not saying a keyboard can defeat a tank, but for instance, after the Sichuan
> earthquake, it was angry people on the Internet that eventually got the
> shoddy schoolwork construction scandal to the fore. The centre then punished
> the local authorities responsible, but it doesn't seem impossible anger
> could one day soon be turned at Peking as well.
>
> Anyway, as a monarchist, I support placing Hengzhen, the Manchu pretender
> to the throne, in power, though I rather doubt there's much enthusiasm for
> that option, a full 97 years after China became a republic.
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Wikipedia statistics discussion list
> folks@wikipedometer.net
> http://wikipedometer.net/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/folks
>
>

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On the economic side, the thing is that China&#39;s been growing so fast (y=
es, some of the data is sketchy as hell but even assuming a generous adjust=
ment for overstatement) that even a sudden economic slowdown will still mea=
n rates of growth which leave every other country jealous. Also, the truth =
is a little bit complicated, but in fact the huge masses of peasantry have =
participated in a lot of this prosperity. I don&#39;t have my figures handy=
 right now but there&#39;s been a tremendous drop in extreme poverty (most =
of which is rural) in China and India in the past decade or two - some of t=
hese findings have been recently somewhat revised although a lot of that se=
ems to be due to a higher standard of what constitutes &quot;poverty&quot; =
(which itself is a mark of progress in a way). And when people are getting =
rich(er) I&#39;m not sure how much the fact of a decayed ideological founda=
tion really matters.<br>
Also (sorry to pile on a bit but this fairly close to some of the things I =
study for a living) the environmental problems have been increasing but thi=
s has been true initially in every country that has seen large increases in=
 standards of living. After a certain threshold is reached these countries =
diverted more of their resources into cleaning up (some of) the mess they&#=
39;ve made while industrializing/growing and there&#39;s no reason to think=
 that it&#39;ll play out differently in China.<br>
<br>On the other hand the the demographic factors are a potential source of=
 trouble while who knows what will happen with N.Korea - but that&#39;s alw=
ays been the case. The Internet might make local government more accountabl=
e and make some positive micro-changes but I doubt it will have a regime-ch=
anging effect.<br>
<br>Radek<br><br><br><div class=3D"gmail_quote">2009/7/9 Christian Suciu <s=
pan dir=3D"ltr">&lt;<a href=3D"mailto:christiansuciu@yahoo.com">christiansu=
ciu@yahoo.com</a>&gt;</span><br><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"=
border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; paddi=
ng-left: 1ex;">
<table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0"><tbody><tr><td styl=
e=3D"font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font=
-weight: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjus=
t: inherit; font-stretch: inherit;" valign=3D"top">
<span style=3D"font-family: arial,helvetica,clean,sans-serif; border-collap=
se: collapse; line-height: 15px;">I agree the protests alone won&#39;t disl=
odge the current regime.=A0<span style=3D"border-bottom: 1px dashed rgb(0, =
102, 204); line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none;">China</span>=A0has the=
 advantage of being some 92% Han, versus 51% Russian for the USSR in 1989 (=
and 70% Russian + Ukrainian + Belarusian). Still, restive minorities=A0<i s=
tyle=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none;">and</i>=A0a decayed ideol=
ogical foundation=A0<i style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none;">a=
nd</i>=A0a sudden=A0<span style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none;=
">economic slowdown</span>=A0<i style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style:=
 none;">and</i>=A0a huge mass of peasantry that never shared in the prosper=
ity (evidently not a factor in=A0<span style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline=
-style: none; background-color: transparent; border-bottom-style: none;">Si=
ngapore</span>)=A0<i style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none;">and=
</i>=A0problems in the=A0<span style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: =
none;">industrial sector</span>=A0(including looming environmental catastro=
phe)=A0<i style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none;">and</i>=A0a de=
mographic crisis (plummeting birthrates and a vast excess of males)=A0<i st=
yle=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none;">and</i>=A0regional instabi=
lity (Korea)=A0<i style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none;">and</i=
>=A0wild-card factors such as the Internet* and the=A0<span style=3D"line-h=
eight: 1.2em; outline-style: none;">spread of Christianity</span>=A0might a=
mount to something -- possibly.<div style=3D"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; lin=
e-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none;">
<br style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none;"></div><div style=3D"=
margin: 0px; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none;">*I&#39=
;m not saying a keyboard can defeat a tank, but for instance, after the=A0<=
span style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none;">Sichuan earthquake<=
/span>, it was angry people on the Internet that eventually got the shoddy =
schoolwork construction scandal to the fore. The centre then punished the l=
ocal authorities responsible, but it doesn&#39;t seem impossible anger coul=
d one day soon be turned at=A0<span style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-st=
yle: none;">Peking</span>=A0as well.</div>
<div style=3D"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.2em; outline-style:=
 none;"><br style=3D"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none;"></div><div s=
tyle=3D"margin: 0px; padding: 0px; line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none;=
">
Anyway, as a monarchist, I support placing=A0Hengzhen, the=A0<span style=3D=
"line-height: 1.2em; outline-style: none;">Manchu</span>=A0pretender to the=
 throne, in power, though I rather doubt there&#39;s much enthusiasm for th=
at option, a full 97 years after China became a republic.</div>
</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br>



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