The Global Intelligence Files,
files released so far...
2933
The Global Intelligence Files

### Index pages

List of Releases

### by Date of Document

unspecified
2001
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

### by Date of Release

2001-03-13
2010-03-10
2011-03-05
2011-03-15
2012-01-29
2012-02-27
2012-02-28
2012-02-29
2012-03-01
2012-03-02
2012-03-03
2012-03-04
2012-03-05
2012-03-06
2012-03-07
2012-03-08
2012-03-09
2012-03-10
2012-03-11
2012-03-12
2012-03-13
2012-03-14
2012-03-15
2012-03-16
2012-03-17
2012-03-19
2012-03-20
2012-03-23
2012-03-25
2012-03-26
2012-03-27
2012-04-01
2012-04-02
2012-04-24
2012-04-26
2012-04-30
2012-05-10
2012-06-18
2012-06-20
2012-07-01
2012-07-24
2012-07-28
2012-07-29
2012-07-30
2012-07-31
2012-08-01
2012-08-02
2012-08-05
2012-08-06
2012-08-07
2012-08-08
2012-08-09
2012-08-10
2012-08-11
2012-08-12
2012-08-13
2012-08-14
2012-08-15
2012-08-16
2012-08-17
2012-08-18
2012-08-19
2012-08-20
2012-08-21
2012-08-22
2012-08-23
2012-08-24
2012-08-25
2012-08-26
2012-08-27
2012-08-29
2012-08-30
2012-08-31
2012-09-01
2012-09-02
2012-09-03
2012-09-04
2012-09-05
2012-09-06
2012-09-07
2012-09-09
2012-09-10
2012-09-11
2012-09-12
2012-09-13
2012-09-14
2012-09-16
2012-09-17
2012-09-18
2012-09-19
2012-09-21
2012-09-22
2012-09-25
2012-09-27
2012-09-28
2012-09-29
2012-09-30

### Our Partners

ABC Color - Paraguay
Al Akhbar - Lebanon
Al Masry Al Youm - Egypt
Asia Sentinel - Hong Kong
Bivol - Bulgaria
Carta Capital - Brazil
CIPER - Chile
Dawn Media - Pakistan
L'Espresso - Italy
La Repubblica - Italy
La Jornada - Mexico
La Nacion - Costa Rica
Malaysia Today - Malaysia
McClatchy - United States
Nawaat - Tunisia
NDR/ARD - Germany
Owni - France
Pagina 12 - Argentina
Philip Dorling - Fairfax media contributor - Australia
Plaza Publica - Guatemala
Publica - Brazil
Publico.es - Spain
Rolling Stone - United States
Russian Reporter - Russia
Ta Nea - Greece
Taraf - Turkey
The Hindu - India
The Yes Men - Bhopal Activists
Sunday Star-Times - New Zealand

### Community resources

Supporters Support Wikileaks Follow us on Twitter Twitter this Follow us on Facebook

courage is contagious

# The Global Intelligence Files

On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.

## [EastAsia] INSIGHT - CHINA - Growth - (via) CN65

Released on 2012-02-29 14:00 GMT

Email-ID | 1102490
Date | 2011-01-24 14:09:16
From | colibasanu@stratfor.com
To | eastasia@stratfor.com, econ@stratfor.com
List-Name | eastasia@stratfor.com

**Source is actually an Ernst & Young Analyst writing to CN65. Nothing
ground-breaking, but confirmation of what we already know.
SOURCE: CN65 (via CN65)
ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and
natural resources
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former Australian Senator working in PNG
PUBLICATION: Yes
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2/3
DISTRIBUTION: EA, Econ
SPECIAL HANDLING: None
SOURCE HANDLER: Jen
Some things about Chinese growth figures:
- they are a bit dodgy, because regional economies are told that they
need, say, 10% growth, and voila, they report 10% growth
- statistics are still not accurate. for example, in 2007 (i think) the
Chinese decided that its economy was suddenly 16% larger than what they
thought it was. The reporting of services sector output is still a bit
dodgy
- i think the best way to forecast Chinese growth is from the supply
side - ie. to look at their potential growth rate in terms of Labour Force
growth + Productivity Growth = GDP and then have a think about the risks
around that. I always recommended a wide variance around China's growth
forecast because the whole show could fall over because of the massive
misallocations in the market (eg. investment is directed at only certain
industries, the exchange rate is held low to promote exports, interest
rates are held at different levels in different industry sectors etc etc).
- So, until about 2015, you will see a continuation of the massive
labour force growth (peasants coming in from the farms). That said, wages
and inflation are slowly starting to rise. While labour productivity is
still strong, capital productivity is starting to decline as China
inevitably becomes a capital rich developed country. The upshot is that
10% is the absolute max that China can now grow given the current
structure
of the economy. I would expect China to grow between 8-10% until 2015,
then things will switch from the export sector to domestic demand,
particularly as China commit to the pension reforms that will allow the
people to spend more of their money (at the moment savings is 50% of
GDP!!!!!).
--
Jennifer Richmond
STRATFOR
China Director
Director of International Projects
(512) 422-9335
richmond@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com