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# The Global Intelligence Files

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## Re: G3 - US/SYRIA/EU - US readying sanctions against Syrian officials....US and EU having doubts Assad can survive uprising

Released on 2012-09-14 00:00 GMT

Email-ID | 65118
Date | 1970-01-01 01:00:00
From | bhalla@stratfor.com
To | analysts@stratfor.com

the US doesn't necessarily want to deal with the instabilty that would
follow regime collapse in Syria. They've been trying to ignore what's
going on there, but it's getting a lot harder to ignore as the deaths have
been climbing over the past few days. this is a way for the US to tone
down the hypocrisy by saying, 'look, we're taking action.'
if you take a look at the other major stakeholders - Turkey and KSA
specifically, they are also losing patience with the regime (see separate
discussion on that)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: "Rodger Baker" <rbaker@stratfor.com>
To: "Analyst List" <analysts@stratfor.com>
Sent: Monday, April 25, 2011 9:18:01 AM
Subject: Re: G3 - US/SYRIA/EU - US readying sanctions
against Syrian officials....US and EU having doubts Assad
can survive uprising
why remarkable? The situation in each is very different. determine why the
US did not push syria earlier than this. There will be a reason. Then see
what has perhaps shifted that the US is now considering a different path.
On Apr 25, 2011, at 9:14 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:
The article about the US mulling santions on Syria - even though it
wouldn't have much of an effect, this would be the first real sign of US
pressure on Bashar since all this shit began.
Compared to how quickly Obama appeared to abandon Mubarak, pretty
remarkable it took this long.
On 4/25/11 9:00 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:
combine
Syria violence: At least 25 people killed in Deraa
Share on
Published: 04.25.11, 16:21 / Israel News TwitterShare
on
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4060379,00.html
Facebook
share
At least 25 people were killed Monday in Deraa, the epicenter of
protest in Syria, as security forces continued to pound the city.
Abdallah Abazid, a human rights activist, told AFP by phone "at least
25 martyrs" were killed by gunfire and heavy artillery. (AFP
U.S. Seeks to Raise Heat on Syria
* MIDDLE EAST NEWS
* APRIL 25, 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704489604576282762981205864.html
By JAY SOLOMON, NOUR MALAS and ADAM ENTOUS
WASHINGTONa**The U.S. is readying sanctions against senior officials
in Syria who are overseeing a violent crackdown as Washington and
Europe suggest the regime of President Bashar al-Assad is increasingly
fragile.
The Obama administration is drafting an executive order empowering the
president to freeze the assets of these senior Syrian officials and
ban them from any business dealings in the U.S., according to
officials briefed on the deliberations.
Unilateral sanctions by Washington on Syrian officials wouldn't have
much direct impact on Mr. Assad's inner circle, as most regime members
have few holdings in the U.S. But countries in Europe, where the
Assads are believed to have more substantial assets, will be pressured
to follow Washington's lead, the officials involved in the discussions
said.
The legal order is expected to be completed by the U.S. Treasury
Department in the coming weeks, these officials said. The move
indicates a hardening of the Obama administration's policy toward Mr.
Assad, whose family has ruled the country for four decades.
If Mr. Obama imposes new sanctions on Syria, it will mark a break from
his initial efforts of seeking rapprochement with Mr. Assad. Over the
past two years, the U.S. has eased some of the financial penalties
imposed on Damascus by the George W. Bush administration. And in
January, Mr. Obama returned a U.S. ambassador to Syria for the first
time in nearly six years.
The U.S. in 2004 imposed expansive trade sanctions on Syria, barring
virtually all imports or exports between Washington and Damascus. Mr.
Bush also imposed financial penalties on Syria officials for their
alleged support of militants in Iraq and involvement in corruption.
A new executive order would specifically target Syrian officials for
human-rights abuses.
Still, a number of the U.S.'s Mideast allies, such as Israel and Saudi
Arabia, remain wary of destabilizing the Assad regime. Israel fears an
even more radical government coming to power in Damascus, while Arab
leaders worry it could foment more revolutions in the region. U.S.
officials say Washington's cautious approach toward Damascus has been
fueled, in part, by these concerns.
Syria's opposition is a mix of secular-nationalists, former members of
Mr. Assad's Baath political party, and the Islamist Muslim
Brotherhood. Analysts say it's very difficult to predict what type of
regime could replace Mr. Assad's.
Syrian forces open fire on mourners attending a mass funeral who were
calling for an end to the Syrian president's rule. Video courtesy
Reuters.
The latest move toward sanctions, which appears similar to the tactic
the U.S. used against Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi after his
crackdown, would come as international opinion turns against the
Syrian regime, which has killed about 200 protesters since unrest
began in the country around a month ago. More than 80 protesters were
killed on Friday and Saturday as tens of thousands tried to
demonstrate against the regime in cities across the country. The
outpouring of resentment and anger by Syrian citizens has surprised
many observers, and the violence unleashed against protesters has even
shaken the support of countries that have long sought engagement with
Syria, such as France and the U.K.
The intensifying crackdown has significantly diminished hope in
Washington and Europe that Mr. Assad can embrace meaningful reforms,
U.S. and European officials involved in the sanctions deliberations
said. Doubts are also growing in the Obama administration and among
its allies that Mr. Assad will survive the uprising.
"We don't see how Assad can push this genie back in the bottle," a
senior European official said. "It's too late for him to get ahead of
the curve politically."
Human-rights groups are pressing the White House to specifically name
Mr. Assad and members of his family who oversee Syria's security
apparatus. Mr. Assad's younger brother, Maher al-Assad, heads an army
special forces unit alleged to be playing a central role in the
crackdown. The president's brother-in-law, Assef Shawkat, is deputy
chief of the Syrian army.
The White House declined to comment on any possible executive order or
concerning which Syrian officials might be targeted. "We're looking at
a range of possible responses to this unacceptable behavior" in Syria,
an Obama administration official said, without elaborating on what
those options were.
Syria's opposition, especially within the country, has been slow to
gain momentum. But the violence the security services meted out to
protesters last week and over the weekend has crystallized an
antiregime movement that started with inspiration from recent
uprisings in the Arab world that have ousted leaders or put them on
the ropes.
"Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya gave us a lot of courage," said a young
Homs resident, describing himself as a member of the Baath Party who
wasn't politically active before now. "We're more exposed now, but
we're not organized. That's the next step."
The crowds of protesters, though numbering in the tens of thousands
across the country, remained markedly smaller and less concentrated
than those in Tunisia and Egypt that ultimately forced the
resignations of their leaders earlier this year. And President Assad
appears to retain a base of strong support from well-off Syrians in
the big cities and among minority groups, such as Syria's substantial
Christian population, some of whom fear their fortunes would sour if
Mr. Assad's ardently secular regime weren't there to protect them.
However, on Saturday, two parliamentarians and the top cleric in the
southern city of Deraa resigned, apparently over the president's
handling of the protests. In Daraa, Homs, and the Damascus suburb of
Douma, citizens are defying the state, using international cellphone
numbers to feed information to the outside world.
Statements signed by local committees representing the families of
victims in the clashes with security forces called for an end to the
use of force and the lifting of emergency law, which was signed into
effect Thursday but hasn't had much impact on the numbers of people
arrested and held without charges.
In Homs, a group of clerics and Syrians seeking political change set
up a committee to steer a reform process, sending a letter to the
president listing their demands days before security forces violently
cleared a protest on April 19.
Since then, Syrians who have lost relatives and friends at the
demonstrations or in the crossfire at Friday prayer have become
emboldened, reaching out to activists in London, the U.S., and
elsewhere, according to the activists abroad.
It isn't possible to confirm some reports. Foreign journalists have
been expelled from Syria and those inside are barred from areas of
unrest.
For activists inside Syria, too, coordination between cities is
extremely difficult because of widespread surveillance by authorities.
Protesters, who are reacting to events rather than organizing action,
are directed from European capitals that have long played host to
Syria's formal opposition groups, activists inside and outside Syria
say.
The U.S., in addition to the sanctions move, is pressing to get
Syria's human-rights record addressed through the United Nations. The
State Department is lobbying U.N. members to block Damascus's efforts
to win a seat on the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva. The U.S. is
also seeking a special session of the Council in the coming weeks to
address Syria's political crackdown, as well as repressive actions by
other Middle East governments.
The White House's National Security Council has begun holding meetings
with Syrian opposition figures in recent weeks, according to people
who have taken part in the discussions. The Obama administration has
voiced concern about the lack of unity among the Syrian protestors and
is seeking to learn more about their demands and leaders, these
officials said.
--
Benjamin Preisler
+216 22 73 23 19