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## Re: DISCUSSION GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat

Released on 2012-08-12 00:00 GMT

Email-ID | 1863417
Date | 2010-11-22 18:04:31
From | marko.papic@stratfor.com
To | sean.noonan@stratfor.com

I think I am for another 1 hour or so... Rodger is back from his errand so
will prob pull the plug on me any minute.
On 11/22/10 11:03 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
From a small amount of research, I actually think they do a pretty good
job. Both French and German capabilities are very much overlooked.
Thank James Bond and Jack Bauer.
are you the analysis boss today?
On 11/22/10 10:58 AM, Marko Papic wrote:
In the more long-term, I think an analysis of the German intelligence
agencies would be good too. They have been pretty decimated by the
Cold War and by all the problems associated with running an
intelligence agency in a post-Gestapo country. If Germany is ever
going to become a world power again, however, they would need to
overcome these deamons as well. That is sort of the last straw for
Germany, the one that is going to be most sensitive to overcome. But
perhaps this case may illustrate how they are already overcoming these
issues.
On 11/22/10 10:50 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
Main problem is that Der Spiegel is just that good, they've at least
touched on most of what I would want to say about it. The main
thing here is how the politics of a terror threat/alert coincide
with the reality of the threat itself.
We saw that Germany was fairly relaxed bout the earlier threat in
Europe released by the US. I'm not sure if that was the same as the
info that the FBI passed over about this shia group, Saif (I don't
know anything about them). But something changed, as we noted last
week in their interpretation. That seems to go down to this virtual
walk-in. The one thing I was left confused about is whether BKA had
ever been in contact with this source before. It sounds like he
cold called them. It's common knowledge that walk-ins, rather than
recruits, are nearly always the best sources. But at the same time,
they are very suspicious as double agents. If this was a US source
they would be freaking the fuck out after having Al-Balawi turn on
them. The germans seem to have cooler heads, but they will be
working 24/7 to verify the source (let me make another plug for John
Lecarre's A Most Wanted Man here, most of his career was in
Germany).
They've clearly got enough corroborating information that they
consider this a real threat. But politically they are faced with
the universal 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' alert
problem. If the Interior ministry doesn't say something, they will
be liable if an attack occurs. Look at the constant press over
information on the warning intelligence for Mumbai. As we've said
before, simply issuing the warning may help to deter the attackers.
The real important bit here, is that it seems the germans have
fairly good intelligence. While this attack is still not happening
tomorrow, they have a lot of details about what might be in the
works, rather than a single-source intercept that indicates some
vague threat. It seems they've increased security pretty well at
the Bundestag, and want to add to the presence at any possible
target. This is where we seem them scrambling, and where their
intelligence holes are.
The task now for the germans is to verify this source. Maybe even
pick him up and put him on ice somewhere (Fred/Stick?), not in
GErmany but in Pakistan/Afghanistan. That will require some
cooperation with either/both the Americans and Pakistanis. They
also need to verify all the bio information they have on these 4-6
guys trying to get into germany and watch travelers very carefully.
The germans seem to be very good at surveilling these threats within
Germany, so their best luck may come when one of the guys overseas
contacts a local already under surveillance.
At minimum, this could be a pretty interesting tearline this week.
Both the walk-in issues and the CIA/FBI liaison conflicts that I
havne't gotten into here.
On 11/22/10 10:34 AM, Marko Papic wrote:
Any thoughts on where you guys are thinking of going with this?
Der Spiegel article is indeed interesting.
On 11/22/10 9:28 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
Great report from Der Spiegel (thanks Mikey). I suggest anyone
interested to read the whole thing. They ask the right
questions, and while not as much detail as I hoped, give us a
much better understanding on the threat in Germany.
The BKA (germany's FBI) must be extremely busy verifying the
details of this virtual walk-in. It obviously caused the
germans to shit their pants. But the real questions are buried
in the article---how real was this plot, how real is the source,
is the source just trying to get back to the land of brezeln and
bier? Trying to double-cross them somehow?
Also note the tip off from the FBI (cue fred), not the usual CIA
liaison with BND.
For Eurasia, there's a lot in here on the internal politics of
the interior minister position, and the relation between state
and federal government.
On 11/22/10 8:55 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: [OS] GERMANY/CT-The Story Behind Germany's Terror
Threat
Date: Mon, 22 Nov 2010 08:38:21 -0600
From: Graham Smith <graham.smith@stratfor.com>
Reply-To: The OS List <os@stratfor.com>
To: os@stratfor.com
11/22/2010 11:38 AM
Fears of a Mumbai Redux
The Story Behind Germany's Terror Threat
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,730377,00.html
By Matthias Bartsch, Yassin Musharbash and Holger Stark
Germany is currently in a state of high alert. Security
officials are warning that they have concrete information
pointing to a possible terror attack on the federal parliament
building in Berlin, a massively popular tourist attraction.
The days of Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere's reserved
stances in dealing with such warnings appear to be over.
The call came from abroad, and the man speaking hurriedly on
the other end of the line sounded as if he feared for his
life. He wanted out, he told the officers of the German
Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) -- out of the terrorist
scene. He wanted to come back to Germany, back to his family.
Then he asked if German officials could help him.
Right now, they're trying to do just that. The BKA is pursuing
the case under the codename "Nova." The apparently remorseful
man could be an important possible whistleblower from a
dangerous region of the globe. In fact, he is also the most
recent reason why German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere
put the entire country in a state of fright on Wednesday.
During a hastily called press conference that day, de Maiziere
stated that Germany faced the threat of terrorist attacks that
might be launched against the country at some point in
November. As he put it, Germany is "presently dealing with a
new situation."
Just two days earlier, the source had called for the third
time in just a short period and provided more information. He
told officials that a small group of terrorists wanted to
conduct a raid on the Reichstag building in Berlin, which
houses the federal parliament, and that that was only one of
the targets included in their attack plans.
Germany on High Alert
Since then, Germany has been in a state of high alert. The
Reichstag is surrounded with barricades and its popular cupola
tourist attraction temporarily closed to visitors. Police
armed with submachine guns are patrolling major railway
stations and airports. And vacations have been called off for
officials at the country's security agencies. Wherever they
have cause for doing so, the authorities are secretly
monitoring communications, conducting surveillance operations
and launching undercover investigations. At the moment,
investigators seem to be at a loss; their modus operandi:
"We'll prod the shrubs and see if we can flush out any birds."
"There is cause for worry, but no cause for hysteria," de
Maiziere assured his listeners. But while he has never been
much of an agitator, his colleagues at the state level have
described the situation in much more drastic terms. Uwe
Schu:nemann, for example, who has been the interior minister
of the northwestern state of Lower Saxony since 2003, stated
that he had "never experienced a heightened security situation
like this one." And Berlin Senator for the Interior Ehrhart
Ko:rting, whose position is tantamount to that of a government
minister in the city-state, has already even gone so far as to
call on the inhabitants of the German capital city to report
suspicious-looking individuals of Arab origin to the police.
"If you suddenly see three somewhat strange-looking men who
are new to your neighborhood, who hide their faces and who
only speak Arabic," Ko:rting said, "you should report them to
the authorities."
Under heightened pressure, officials in Germany's 16 federal
states are now checking to see when and where major events are
scheduled to take place this coming week within their
boundaries. And nothing suggested as a possible target is
being discounted, no matter how unlikely. For example,
officials in Rhineland-Palatinate warned the state's interior
minister, Karl Peter Burch, that there was always a lot going
on at IKEA stores on Saturdays.[WTF]
Serenity, Scaremongering and Strategy
Since last week, German politicians at both the state and
federal levels have once again had to figure out how they will
handle themselves when making warnings about terrorist
attacks. They have had to come up with a language that can
simultaneously convey both an alert and a sense of calm.
This is no easy task. For one thing, this isn't the first time
this has happened. In September 2009, for example, right
before federal elections were held, there were concrete
threats that resulted in a heightened security situation. But,
in the end, nothing happened. This time around, people are
wondering whether they are on the precipice of an emergency or
whether these are once again empty threats.
Still, one thing is certain: For the time being, Germany has
become a different country -- more nervous, more anxious, more
agitated. And Germany's domestic security policies are being
put to the test.
When Interior Minister de Maiziere assumed his office in
October 2009 in conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's
government, he aimed to cool down the heated sense of alarm
regularly fanned out by his predecessors. What's more, the man
who had served as Merkel's chief of staff in Chancellery until
being moved to the role of interior minister in her new
government, was given the task of nurturing a more relaxed
relationship between her party, the Christian Democratic Union
(CDU), and its new coalition partner, the business-friendly
Free Democratic Party (FDP). In particular, it was his job to
not draw out the long-standing conflict over domestic security
policies with the Justice Ministry, which has been led since
the 2009 election by Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, a
member of the FDP. Indeed, Merkel feared that the quarrelsome
FDP might try to capitalize on the issue to win over more
voters, so she assigned de Maiziere to prevent that from
happening.
In fact, the plan was to repeat the same strategy that the CDU
and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union
(CSU), had used when they were in the so-called "grand
coalition" with the center-left Social Democratic Party,
between 2005 and 2009. At the time, they made a point of
undermining the SPD by championing what had traditionally been
the latter party's issues.
A Game-Changer
But now the game plan has changed. This November will
drastically alter de Maiziere's understanding of his role in
office. If he tries to return things to their previous state
of calm, he's going to have a very tough time. In fact, it's
much more likely that he will be a completely different
interior minister.
For a while now, de Maiziere's softer stance has prompted
opposition by politicians on the right involved with domestic
security issues. But they are now calling louder than ever for
a tougher course to be followed. Merkel is also adjusting to
the new situation and is reportedly happy with the way de
Maiziere handled himself last week. Likewise, no one seems to
have voiced any criticism last Thursday evening during a
meeting of the Coalition Committee, a regular gathering of the
parties that are part of the government.
The almost complete lack of protest has a lot to do with where
the alarming information is coming from. In fact, information
regarding the supposedly imminent attacks has come from two
independent sources. Shortly before receiving the telephone
call about the planned attacks, BKA officials had received a
cable from their American counterparts at the FBI, America's
federal police force, warning of possible attacks.
Still, what truth is there in these "security-related" pieces
of information coming from both domestic and foreign sources?
And, given all the discrepancies in the warning messages, just
how much do they deserve to be trusted? Indeed, even among
security officials themselves, there is some doubt about how
legitimate these statements are -- and about just how acute
the danger threatening Germany really is.
An Attack Modelled after Mumbai[plot details in this section]
What the caller reported was undeniably alarming. According to
him, al-Qaida and associated groups based in Pakistan were
making joint preparations for an attack in Germany. One idea
was to remotely detonate a bomb using a mobile phone. Another
called for a small group of terrorists to storm the Reichstag
with guns blazing, take hostages and end everything in one
calamitous bloodbath. Indeed, BKA officials learned that the
latter plan had been modeled on the storming of luxury hotels
in Mumbai, the Indian capital, almost exactly two years ago,
in a massacre that left 175 people dead.
According to the caller, the plan called for the terrorists to
procure the submachine guns, automatic rifles, explosives and
whatever else they would need to storm Germany's parliament
building in the Balkans. He said that two men had already
traveled to Germany six to eight weeks earlier, adding that
one had the nom de guerre of "Abu Mohammed" and that the other
one was a German of Turkish origin. Both apparently had roots
in the Greater Berlin metropolitan area, were currently
unemployed and living off of welfare payments and had immersed
themselves in the anonymity provided by a major city -- until
the time should come for their activation.
Likewise, there were allegedly four other volunteers --
including a German, a Turk, a North African and another
jihadist of unknown identity -- in the training camps run by
al-Qaida and related groups waiting for the signal to travel
to Germany. And, according to the telephone source, al-Qaida's
plan was to attack in February or March.
The only question now relates to just how credible the
caller's statements are. He is an insider who joined up with
armed groups several months ago and has earned a reputation as
a fanatic fighter.
But could it be that he is only trying to tell German
officials the juiciest things possible in order to raise his
own market value and thereby prompt them to extract him from
the terror scene? Or could it be that al-Qaida is even
planning a second spectacular coup like the one in December
2009, when the Americans allowed a supposedly top-level
turncoat onto an American military base without any sort of
pat-down, who went on to detonate his explosive vest and blow
seven CIA officials to bits?
A Strange Message
A clear picture has yet to emerge. And one reason for this is
also the fact that it was only two weeks ago that the FBI
first decided to share information about another possible
attack with German officials.
In this case, even the way contact was made was unusual. Under
normal circumstances, liaisons from the CIA station in Germany
are the ones to communicate American warnings to their German
counterparts. But, this time around, it was an apparently
particularly anxious FBI that chose to directly notify the
BKA.
The FBI told the Germans about an obscure Indian group called
"Saif," or "sword." Despite being a Shiite group, it had
allegedly made a pact with al-Qaida, a Sunni organization, and
sent five of its men to the Pakistani province of Waziristan
for training. According to the FBI, two volunteers -- who were
already equipped with visas allowing them to travel freely
within the 25 European countries belonging to the Schengen
zone -- were supposedly already en route to Germany and would
enter the United Arab Emirates on Monday, Nov. 22. There, they
would allegedly be provided with new travel documents before
traveling on to Germany. One of the men is supposedly named
"Khan," which is about as common in that part of the world as
"Smith" is in English-speaking countries. And no firm
conclusion had been made about their nationalities.
The FBI agents even named the presumed masterminds behind the
operation. A certain Mushtaq Altaf Bin-Khadri, who is in
charge of finances and training for "Saif," allegedly
dispatched the terrorist squad. But the FBI was not in a
position to comment on the targets of the two men in Germany.
One name came up time and again in the communique, and one
that pricked the Germans' ears: Dawood Ibrahim. The
54-year-old arms trader is "India's most-wanted man." The US
government has listed him as a "global terrorist" and
persuaded the United Nations to place his name on a list of
supporters of terror. Ibrahim is rumored to be the head of
D-Company, a criminal syndicate named after himself, and is
believed to be in charge of smuggling the suspected terrorists
into Germany.
Both the FBI and the BKA are attaching a lot of importance to
the information in the FBI communique. But the intelligence
services of the two countries -- the CIA in the United States
and the BND and Office for the Protection of the Constitution
in Germany, the country's foreign and domestic intelligence
agencies, respectively -- point to internal contradictions as
reasons for their skepticism. As they see it, for example, it
is highly unlikely that a Shiite group would team up with
Sunni terrorists, especially since a good part of al-Qaida
propaganda vilifies Shiites. Other reasons for doubt include
the facts that none of the intelligence agencies was
previously familiar with an organization called "Saif," that
there have been no previously recorded threats against Germany
by Indian extremists, and that the whole scenario seems rather
implausible.
On the other hand, the FBI information is uncommonly concrete.
In addition to the names of the suspects, it also provides
information about the exact day on which they are supposed to
arrive in the United Arab Emirates. Moreover, Ibrahim is
believed to be one of the men behind the terror attacks in
Mumbai. If he really is involved, that alone would be reason
enough for worry.
Abnormal Circumstances
Under normal circumstances, a message of this kind from the
United States would no doubt be cause for serious-minded
scrutiny, but it would not be a cause for alarm. For example,
the BKA would go through all recent visa applications, and
federal police officers would take a closer look at all the
people entering Germany from Arab states. And the intelligence
services would make the rounds to see if any of its partners
had any helpful information on the matter.
Indeed, under normal circumstances, there are always a lot of
these communiques, most of which turn out to be false alarms.
But these are no normal circumstances. Germany is in a state
of emergency. Other countries, such as the United States,
employ a system of official warning levels based on color
codes that change -- from yellow to orange, for example --
when the danger level is thought to increase. But, in Germany,
the interior minister is the barometer: He consults with
experts -- and then it is he who must call the shots.
For the minister, a situation like this presents a dilemma. If
he remains silent and something happens, he's a failure. If he
makes loud warning and nothing happens, he's just a
rabble-rouser trying to push through controversial tougher
security laws. And, of course, the public never thanks you if
everyday life continues in a normal, peaceful way.
Absolute Security Remains a Pipe Dream
When de Maiziere became Germany's interior minister, he had
planned to lead the ministry in a level-headed way. For
example, he prefers to use phrases such as "internal calm"
rather than "internal security." And it was only six weeks ago
that he uttered the sentence: "There's no cause for alarm."
But, since then, the chorus of warning voices has only
ballooned in size.
This change in course is the combined result of everything
that happened beforehand. It might very well turn out that the
alleged Indian terror squad stays home and that the raid on
the Reichstag never happens. But what will remain is a
well-founded supposition that there is a critical mass of
terrorists in the border region between Afghanistan and
Pakistan that is thinking about launching attacks in Europe --
and certainly in Germany, as well.
Raw Nerves
Given such circumstances, there is a major sense of alarm
among German officials. Last Thursday, just a day after de
Maiziere's shocking press conference, the BKA issued a press
release "in connection with the current high-risk situation."
It reported that a piece of suspicious luggage had been
discovered a day earlier in Windhoek, the capital of Namibia,
before being loaded onto a plane bound for Germany. The laptop
bag contained batteries, wires, a detonator and a clock -- in
other words, all the ingredients you need for a potential
airborne catastrophe.
It sounded as if another terror plot had been foiled. Had
there been a plan to blow up Air Berlin Flight 7377 en route
to Munich? And had the authorities, yet again, discovered an
explosive device at the last minute? In the end, all the worry
was unfounded. As it turned out, the piece of luggage was a
test device built by a company that designs "real test"
suitcases to be used to test security measures. It remains
unclear who checked the bag in. But the fact that the BKA was
so quick to go into alarm mode -- and publicly so -- has been
a communications debacle.
Of course, these days, nobody wants to be the one that wasn't
sufficiently circumspect, the one who took too long to speak
up. No one wants a replay of situations like the one from the
beginning of November, when de Maiziere didn't know for hours
whether the package that had arrived at the Chancellery
contained actual explosives or was just a false alarm. Now,
the threshold for sounding the alarm is already much lower.
Bonded by Fear
Of course, you can never be too sure. Over the last 12 months,
a series of attacks concocted in the Afghan-Pakistani border
region have been foiled in the West. For example, in May, a
car bomb set in New York's Times Square by a man with ties to
the Pakistani Taliban failed to properly detonate. In
Copenhagen, al-Qaida had made plans to storm the offices of
the Jyllands-Posten newspaper as revenge for its 2005
publishing of caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad. In October
2009, David Headley, an American citizen with Pakistani roots,
was arrested after having already visited the newspaper's
offices in order to scout them out before the planned attack.
Other targets reportedly included the subway systems of New
York City and Washington.
On the other hand, absolute security is a pipe dream. For
example, British authorities had even conducted rehearsals for
how to respond to possible attacks. But, even so, when attacks
claiming 56 lives (including those of four attackers) did
strike London, on July 7, 2005, they were unable to prevent
them. Likewise, US intelligence services had warned India a
number of times that terrorists were planning attacks in
Mumbai.
The new situation in Germany has at least had one positive
side effect: For the time being, the traditionally quarrelsome
interior ministers from both the state and the federal levels
have refrained from their usual bickering. Following informal
talks held last Thursday in Hamburg, Minister Bruch of
Rhineland-Palatinate noted that he had "never experienced such
harmony within this group" that has apparently been bonded
together by their shared fear.
Translated from the German by Josh Ward
--
Sean Noonan
Tactical Analyst
Office: +1 512-279-9479
Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
www.stratfor.com
--
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Marko Papic
Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
STRATFOR
700 Lavaca Street - 900
Austin, Texas
78701 USA
P: + 1-512-744-4094
marko.papic@stratfor.com
--
Sean Noonan
Tactical Analyst
Office: +1 512-279-9479
Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
www.stratfor.com
--
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Marko Papic
Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
STRATFOR
700 Lavaca Street - 900
Austin, Texas
78701 USA
P: + 1-512-744-4094
marko.papic@stratfor.com
--
Sean Noonan
Tactical Analyst
Office: +1 512-279-9479
Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
www.stratfor.com
--
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Marko Papic
Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
STRATFOR
700 Lavaca Street - 900
Austin, Texas
78701 USA
P: + 1-512-744-4094
marko.papic@stratfor.com