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## Re: SYRIA/TURKEY - Compilation of statements regarding Buffer zones and No Fly Zone

Released on 2012-08-22 09:00 GMT

Email-ID | 1507660
Date | 2011-11-21 17:41:58
From | ashley.harrison@stratfor.com
To | analysts@stratfor.com
List-Name | analysts@stratfor.com

Thanks for sending. I'll add those to my database. It's important to see
that this idea has been tossed around for a few months.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: "Michael Wilson" <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
To: "Analyst List" <analysts@stratfor.com>
Sent: Monday, November 21, 2011 10:39:04 AM
Subject: Re: SYRIA/TURKEY - Compilation of statements regarding Buffer
zones and No Fly Zone
Here are some other articles
Turkey hardens stance against Syria
November 1, 2011 5:11 pm
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f1438150-049e-11e1-ac2a-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1d82Vwk3y
By Daniel Dombey in Istanbul
Turkey has signalled possible support for a buffer zone to protect Syrian
civilians if Damascus continues its crackdown on democracy protests, as
tensions rise between the two former strategic partners.
Ahmet Davutoglu, Turkeya**s foreign minister, told the Financial Times
that Ankara was preparing targeted sanctions against Damascus and left the
door open for more drastic steps at a later date, such as a buffer zone or
a no fly-zone on Syrian territory.
a**The Syrian regime is attacking the Syrian people, which is
unacceptable,a** Mr Davutoglu said in an interview. a**When we see such an
event next door to us of course we will never be silent.a**
When asked about Turkeya**s stance on a buffer zone or a no-fly zone, he
said: a**We hope that there will be no need for these type of measures but
of course humanitarian issues are importanta*|There are certain universal
values all of us need to respect and protecting citizens is the
responsibility of every state.a**
His comments are an indication of the growing pressure Turkey is putting
on Syria, on the rhetorical level at least, to halt the crackdown.
By contrast, in August Turkish officials rejected reports they were
planning to impose a buffer zone, while Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Natoa**s
secretary general, dismissed the idea of a no-fly zone this week.
Turkeya**s position is important because the country cultivated closer
ties with Damascus until this year and is now taking an active role in
reaching out to the Syrian opposition.
Speaking at the Turkish parliament on Tuesday, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Turkeya**s prime minister, praised the Syrian protests as a**gloriousa**
and expressed his belief that they would succeed.
Ankaraa**s tougher approach has been greatly welcomed by the US, which has
been leading calls for Bashar al-Assad, Syrian president, to leave power.
On Tuesday Syrian state television announced that a final agreement had
been reached between the Syrian government and an Arab League committee
working to find a solution that could end the unrest, although it did not
provide any details. The US said it welcomed any international efforts to
end the violence in Syria, but reiterated its call for Mr Assad to step
down.
Although in the interview Mr Davutoglu denied claims that Turkey allowed
armed Syrian rebels to operate from its territory, last week he became one
of the first international officials to meet leaders of the Istanbul-based
opposition Syrian national council.
Mr Erdogan is also likely to visit Syrian refugee camps in Turkey in the
near future, and could announce further sanctions against Damascus when he
does. The trip had previously been scheduled for last month, but was
postponed because of the death of Mr Erdogana**s mother.
Although Mr Davutoglu said Turkish sanctions against Syria would be
targeted rather than broad, any unilateral steps would mark a change of
tack for Turkey, which has long depicted sanctions against its neighbours
as both ineffective and damaging to its own economy.
a**We have always been against sanctions, economic sanctions which will
harm people,a** Mr Davutoglu said. a**But certain measures [that] have an
impact on a regime fighting against its own people are different.a**
Mr Davutoglu also rejected a claim by Mr Assad that western intervention
in Syria could turn the country into another Afghanistan.
a**[To compare] Syria to Afghanistan would mean implicitly to accept that
it is a failed state, which is not true,a** he said. a**There is a state
continuing in Syria; the important thing is how the leaders of this state
are acting.a** He added that the correct analogy was with eastern Europe
in the 1980s and early 1990s and warned Mr Assad: a**Those leaders who do
not understand this correctly will lose power.a**
Turkey reportedly planning buffer zone along border with Syria
Excerpt from report by Saudi-owned leading pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq
al-Awsat website on 7 November
http://www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=1&id=27239
[Report by Tha'ir Abbas in London: "Turkish Sources to 'Al-Sharq
al-Awsat': We Have the 'Readiness and Ability' To Implement the Buffer
Zone After an Arab and International Cover. Extraordinary Meeting of the
Arab League on Saturday After Declaring Syrian Regime Did Not Implement
its Obligations"]
The situations in Syria entered a new stage yesterday with the emergence
of signs of an Arab-international-regional move which might lead to
fundamental changes in the handling of the Syrian dossier.
Next to the extraordinary session that the Arab initiative committee will
hold next Saturday to discuss the Syrian Government's failure to implement
its obligations which it accepted in the Arab action plan for resolving
the Syrian crisis, sources in the Syrian opposition have disclosed they
have received promises that the UN Security Council [UNSC] will hold a
session after the Arab meeting to discuss a UN resolution to send
international observers to Syria while Turkey has expressed its "readiness
and ability" to establish a buffer zone on condition of getting an "Arab
and international cover."
Turkish sources have told Al-Sharq al-Awsat that Ankara is having
high-level coordination with Qatar that chairs the Arab initiative and
with the Arab League [AL] and also Washington
They said Turkey was going to announce several sanctions in a message that
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan was scheduled to address to
the Syrians during his inspection of their camps inside Turkey but
contacts led to the postponement of these stands "so as to make room for
the Arab initiative and see what results it will have."
But the sources pointed out that "with the escalation in the situation and
the stalling of the initiative, Turkey might raise the (sanctions) issue
again." They added that Turkey was holding contacts with the UNSC member
countries that are still hesitant, especially Brazil and South Africa
which have very close ties with Turkey, in order to persuade them to take
a different stand.
The Turkish sources disclosed that Ankara was in fact imposing some kind
of sanctions on the regime by its total ban on the entry of any kind of
weapons to Syria, such as stopping previously three shipments from Iran,
in addition to "the careful examination" of some banking transfers to
businessmen loyal to the regime so as to pressure and prevent them from
supporting it.
They cited Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu about his country's
readiness to impose a buffer zone all along the borders to protect the
civilians and stressing that his country "has the readiness and ability to
impose the buffer zone but we need an Arab and international cover."
Sources in the Syrian opposition have told Al-Sharq al-Awsat they have
received promises of holding a new UNSC session this week whose agenda
will include a draft resolution to send a team of observers to Syria. They
pointed out that the mission of the "blue berets" would be to watch the
Syrian violations and hence protect the demonstrators from the daily
killings. [Passage omitted citing the AL's statement on Saturday's meeting
of the Arab committee]
On his part, Radwan Ziyadah, member of the Syrian National Council, has
told Al-Sharq al-Awsat that the AL's next meeting on Saturday could be
decisive "because the regime has been given three chances so far and
squandered them all. I believe this is enough to force the hesitant
countries to take a stand." He pointed out that "it is obvious that the
Syrian regime will not stop the killings but on the contrary, it is using
all the army's firing power in shelling the cities" and added: "Things
will be better if it (the AL) takes the right decision, demands
international protection, and authorizes the UNSC to take the appropriate
resolution. It will then be impossible for Russia and China to use the
(veto) or even abstain from voting." He said "it would be a mockery and
ridiculous for the AL to give the regime more chances after all it has
done" and noted in return that the Syrian opposition's contacts with AL
Secretary General Nabil al-Arabi "showed an unusual s! eriousness" in
addition to the opposition's contacts with countries Ziyadah described as
"hesitant" such as Sudan and Algeria which "showed a change in stands."
[Passage omitted on French foreign minister's statements on Syrian
situation]
Source: Al-Sharq al-Awsat website, London, in Arabic 7 Nov 11
BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc 071111 js
Syrian opposition say Turkey "promised"' to arm dissidents, boycott
regime
Text of report by Saudi-owned leading pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat
website on 3 November
[Report by Tha'ir Abbas in London: "Turkish official tells Al-Sharq
al-Awsat: We will take measures to protect the Syrian civilians and stop
the use of violence; Syrian opposition sources talk about Turkish
promises to establish a buffer zone, arm the dissidents, and boycott the
regime"]
Turkey has regained its hard-line tone against the Syrian regime
following a period of "anticipation" imposed by the successive
developments in the region. As Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan returns the Syrian file to the forefront of Turkey's priorities,
his close associates tell Al-Sharq al-Awsat that the expectations in
Turkey indicate that Ankara is on the verge of preparing for a higher
ceiling of statements and actions against Syria. Sources in the Turkish
prime minister's office have said that Erdogan did not make his expected
visit to the Antakya region due to the events that imposed "other
concerns". This was a reference to the attacks that the Kurdistan
Workers' Party perpetrated and the large-scale military operation that
the Turkish forces launched in northern Iraq. The sources pointed out
that Erdogan's visit to Antakya region to review the living conditions
of the Syrian "guests" in the Turkish camps has been deferred, not
cancelled. ! The sources went on to say that a new date for this visit
will be set after Erdogan returns from his two visits to Germany and
France and after the Id al-Adha holiday.
Ersat Hurmuzlu, the Turkish president's chief adviser, stated yesterday
[ 2 November] that his country will take "measures" regarding Syria,
adding that compliance with international sanctions imposed on the
Syrian regime are not subject to discussion. Hurmuzlu told Al-Sharq
al-Awsat that his country "will take measures to protect the Syrian
civilians and to stop the use of violence". However, he declined to go
into details but promised that the Turkish prime minister will announce
these measures in the name of the Turkish government. Hurmuzlu said that
his country "did all it can to expedite reforms in Syria; however, it
has lost hope because the Syrian leadership has chosen the principle of
violence and bloodshed". Hurmuzlu pointed out that his country was the
first to call for dialogue between the regime and the opposition. He
went on to say: "Why not if the new Arab initiative responds to the
demands of the Syrian people and guarantees the sparing of more !
bloodshed". He emphasized that the "legitimate demands of the Syrian
people should be met. The decision is in the hands of the Syrian
people". Syrian opposition sources disclosed to Al-Sharq al-Awsat
yesterday that Ankara promised the Syrian opposition to take four steps
that Erdogan will announce during his visits: Turkey will sever all
relations with the Syrian regime, will join the total and comprehensive
boycott of Al-Asad's regime, arm the Free Syrian Army, support the
establishment of a buffer zone in northern Syria, and help the Syrian
opposition on the international level regarding the demand of
international protection.
Hurmuzlu answered a question related to remarks made by Buthaynah
Sha'ban, the Syrian president's adviser, who talked about "Turkish
promises to issue passports to the Syrian refugees on Turkey's soil".
Hurmuzlu replied: "This is categorically incorrect. We consider these
civilians as guests, not refugees that. The circumstances in their
country drove them to seek asylum; they are free to return to their
country". Answering another remark by Sha'ban on why the refugees fled
from Idlib to Turkey instead of to Aleppo that is closer, Hurmuzlu said
that the security conditions forced them to take this step. He added:
"Seeking asylum in Turkey by the refugees was by choice. We did not ask
them to come to Turkey and we did not force them to return or to stay".
He emphasized that his country is treating its guests "will all
respect". He added that the Turkish authorities launched a vaccination
campaign among the refugees against Hepatitis and conducted a full
survey ! of the medical conditions of the more than 7,000 refugees.
Hurmuzlu concluded that the Syrian regime's remarks that the refugees
are being exploited are totally unjustified.
Source: Al-Sharq al-Awsat website, London, in Arabic 3 Nov 11
BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc 051111/da
Paper views Turkey's plans to establish "buffer zone" on Syrian border
Text of report in English by Turkish newspaper Today's Zaman website on
23 August
[Column by Abdullah Bozkurt: "A Buffer Zone With Syria in the Works"]
In the last National Security Council (MGK) meeting held on Aug. 18,
members of this top decision-making body on national security matters
discussed the possibility of establishing a "buffer zone" along the
Syrian border in case there is a wave of refugees fleeing in droves to
the Turkish side.
In a nearly five-hour-long deliberation, the contingency planning for a
buffer zone was studied carefully and drawn up upon the possibility that
the Bashar Al-Assad regime will likely fail to stem violence in the
turbulent country. All hell will break loose when Syria destabilizes and
a civil war starts that is fought along ethnic and sectarian fault
lines, sending millions of Syrians to the Turkish border to seek safe
haven. That is why Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan described
what has been happening in Syria since March as very much an "internal
affair of Turkey."
Turks still remembers the aftermath of the first Gulf War during which
almost a million Iraqi Kurds flocked to Turkey following Saddam's
crackdown in northern Iraq. It caught Turkish authorities unprepared and
created numerous problems within Turkey. Ankara did not repeat the same
mistake in the second Iraq war when it drew up plans to create buffer
zones inside Iraq, using already established military outposts there as
logistical command centres. Thankfully, it did not come to that as
Saddam fought the battle mostly in central and southern Iraq, while
Kurds enjoyed the protection provided by the US-led coalition in the
north.
In the present case, the buffer zone would be set up first in the "no
man's land" between the Syrian and Turkish lines of demarcation and
would be extended further into Syrian territory if needed. Considering
that the width of the no man's land on the Turkish side varies from 300
to 1,000 meters along the Syrian border, the possibility of extending it
onto Syrian soil is quite likely. What is more, there is not much of an
alternative as to where to set up these refugee centres as most of the
877-kilometre-long border still remains heavily mined. There are some
pockets of the border areas where mines were cleared by both sides and
are available to use. But that would not be enough.
The good news is that most of the land near the border falls under the
legal category of "Forbidden Military Zone," meaning that the Turkish
Armed Forces (TSK) supervises the public land. Some of this land was
farmland before and owned by private parties, but it was all
nationalized during the 1956 demarcation. The TSK has cleared mines from
some of this land, but most of it remains heavily mined. According to
Turkey's commitments to Ottawa mine treaty obligations, all these mines
should be cleared by 2014, which seems highly unlikely at the current
pace. Amazingly, Syrian farmers took it upon themselves to clear mines
in the fertile buffer zone, totalling 250 million square meters, and
planted cotton and olive trees.
As many restive towns in Syria located in the north are close to the
Turkish border, the risk is greater for Ankara than other neighbouring
countries in the east and the south, i.e., Iraq and Jordan. The Turkish
policy of open borders also differs from others as we saw in the June
refugee crisis. "Turkey is the sole country to declare an open border
policy. This is indeed a very impressive operational approach," Carol
Batchelor, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), said
of Turkey at the time.
In a way, Turkey ran drills during the June crisis that saw over 10,000
Syrians who fled from violence to seek safe haven in Turkey. It was a
small-scale operation and was manageable on its own, but the refugee
crisis looming on the horizon would dwarf what we saw back then and will
undoubtedly require massive contingency planning. Officials from the
Prime Ministry's Disaster and Emergency Management Directorate (AFAD)
are telling us that they are ready to immediately mobilize to respond to
a wave of refugees crossing the border as well as to evacuate Turkish
citizens and forei gn nationals stuck in the violence in Syria. AFAD
received much praise for handling evacuations from Egypt and Libya
earlier this year.
To claim legitimacy and dismiss accusations of hostile intentions,
Turkey would likely pursue this approach in coordination with
international and regional bodies. International law, especially
articles and additional protocols of the 1949 Geneva Conventions as well
as the newly developed UN doctrine of the Responsibility to Protect
(R2P), certainly allows Turkey to take action to protect civilians
during the conflict. Though Turkey will take the lead and initiative,
any buffer zone would likely be operated with the UNHCR with members
from the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the Arab League and
the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) pitching in, either by committing
manpower or providing financial resources.
This would be first and foremost a humanitarian obligation on Turkey's
part and should not be confused with anything else. Designated buffer
zones would help reduce casualties in heavily mined border areas. In the
absence of buffer zones, Syrians would nonetheless push across border
areas where it might be dangerous. As such, buffer zones would remove
the need to attempt hazardous journeys and alleviate concerns at least
to some extent in what otherwise would be seen as a catastrophic
humanitarian crisis.
Lest Damascus adopt the "scorched-earth-policy" with respect to
civilians in border areas, Turkey, with Europe's largest army, would
have no problem in providing firepower to protect and secure refugee
centres. We all know what happened in so-called safe havens in Bosnia,
Rwanda and northern Iraq where hundreds and thousands were butchered
despite promises of protection from the UN or occupying powers. Turks do
not want anything like this on their conscience and will do everything
in their power to prevent the Assad regime from going after fleeing
refugees.
The younger Assad should recall how Turkey, frustrated with the terror
originating in its southern neighbour, threatened military action
against his country in the late 1990s during which he was busy climbing
up the military ranks to replace his older brother, Basil, who
unexpectedly died in a car crash, forcing his father Assad to nominate
the junior Assad, his only son, as the rightful heir. Like father, son
Assad knows very well that Turkey means business and that it does not
fool around.
It is true that Turkish officials have openly said they are against
establishing buffer zones along the Syrian border, and we have reported
what they said in this newspaper. Considering that Ankara does not want
this crisis to escalate into a full-blown civil war, statements like
these were not unexpected at all. However, that does not mean Turks are
naive and have no fallback positions whatsoever when push comes to
shove. Let's just pray it never comes to that.
Source: Zaman website, Istanbul, in English 23 Aug 11
BBC Mon EU1 EuroPol 230811 sa/osc
Syrian reportedly deploys anti-aircraft defences near Turkish border
Excerpt from report by Kamil Saqr in Damascus entitled "Al-Asad rejects
calls to step down and warns the West of the consequences of attacking
Syria. Damascus deploys sophisticated air defences near Turkish borders"
published by London-based independent newspaper Al-Quds al-Arabi website
on 22 August
Syrian President Bashar al-Asad has rejected the calls to step down saying
he decided not to reply to them because they were not important and added:
"These remarks are not said to a president chosen by the people and who
does not care about the post." He stressed that "if the West has made
these calls in defence of human rights then the number of the victims
killed and injured by the West is in the millions." He made these
statements in an interview with the state-owned Syrian television channel
last night which was preceded by nationalist songs praising him and
meetings with citizens in Hamah city who said life had returned to normal,
there was activity in the markets, and that prices were good. [Passage
omitted on Al-Asad's interview]
On the other hand, Al-Quds al-Arabi has learned from authoritative sources
that the Syrian Armed Forces deployed last Thursday a number of
antiaircraft units from the sophisticated air defence system on the
northern borders neighbouring Turkey. According to what is known in this
matter, Damascus deployed its anti-aircraft units from the coastal Kasab
area towards the Syrian interior to the east. Information says Damascus
deployed more than 25 very sophisticated antiaircraft vehicles, believed
to be Russian made, with each vehicle carrying four launching pads that
can manoeuvre and confront four mobile air targets.
The deployment followed the escalation in Ankara's warnings to Damascus
last week and the talk about the possibility of an air strike on Syria by
NATO in which the Turkish forces would be its spearhead. But Ankara then
made it definite through Turkish president's Adviser Ersat Hurmuzlu that
Turkey would not intervene militarily in Syria and would not be a crossing
for any foreign forces to it.
The Syrian forces had already deployed hundreds of antitank bases
alongside the Turkish borders in a message, which according to observers,
was addressed to Turkey not to think at all about establishing a buffer
zone to protect the Turkish national security borders which might be
threatened by the Syrian army's military operations in the Idlib, Jabal
al-Zawiyah, and Jisr al-Shughur areas near Turkey. The Syrian forces also
formed a new military brigade to be the base and the launch pad for
command of the military operations that were carried out in Jisr
al-Shughur and Jabal al-Zawiyah against what were called armed groups.
[Passage omitted citing Western diplomats on Syrian attacks on Palestinian
camp, arrival of UN human affairs team]
Source: Al-Quds al-Arabi website, London, in Arabic 22 Aug 11
BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc EU1 EuroPol 220811 sm
A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
Turkish defence minister denies plan to establish buffer zone on Syrian
border
Text of report in English by Turkish semi-official news agency Anatolia
["TURKEY-SYRIA UNREST -Turkish defence minister says Turkey is not willing
to create a buffer zone on the Syrian border" - AA headline]
SIVAS (A.A) -Turkey's defence minister has said the country did not plan
to create a military buffer zone on its southern border with Syria.
"We want to sweep landmines on our border with Syria. We do not want to
create a border with more landmines or set up a buffer zone," Ismet Yilmaz
told reporters Tuesday in the central city of Sivas.
As of today, 9,430 Syrians have returned to their country from their six
temporary tent-sites set up by Turkish Red Crescent in Altinozu,
Yayladagi, Reyhanli towns and Apaydin village of Turkey's southern
province of Hatay.
Nearly 16 thousand Syrians have fled violence and crossed into Turkey
since since January 2011 when the Syrian government launched a nation-wide
crackdown on pro-democracy protestors.
Source: Anatolia news agency, Ankara, in English 16 Aug 11
BBC Mon EU1 EuroPol ME1 MEPol 160811 em/osc
Turkey to set up Syria buffer zone: CNN Turk TV
ReutersBy Ibon Villelabeitia | Reuters a** 49 minutes ago
8/16/2011
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/turkey-set-syria-buffer-zone-cnn-turk-tv-135304135.html
ANKARA (Reuters) - A Turkish broadcaster said on Tuesday Turkey would set
up a buffer zone on its border with Syria, but a Turkish government
official said he had no such information.
CNN Turk broadcast the news in a rolling headline. It gave no source and
did not say what form the buffer zone, presumably involving encroachment
on Syrian territory, would take.
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad on Monday military operations against civilians must end
immediately and unconditionally, warning the Syrian president that this
was Ankara's "final word." Turkish leaders, who once backed Assad, are
sounding increasingly frustrated at Damascus.
With Assad defying international pressure and Syrian refugees crossing
over the border, media have reported that Turkish political and military
leaders are considering setting up a buffer zone inside Syria.
Turkey was caught off guard when 500,000 people flooded across the border
from Iraq during the 1991 Gulf War, many of them staying for some time
after the war. The years that followed saw small contingents of Turkish
troops policing what was an effective 'buffer zone' in the north of Iraq.
Having almost gone to war in the late 1990s because of Turkish Kurdish
militants using Syria as a sanctuary, Damascus would not welcome the
prospect of Turkish boots on Syrian soil.
(Writing by Ibon Villelabeitia)
On 11/21/11 10:14 AM, Ashley Harrison wrote:
Below is a compilation of statements regarding a buffer zone (first) and
then a no-fly zone (below the statements regarding a buffer zone). When
Gul was asked directly regarding foreign military intervention he said
he did not think it was necessary now. The people who are affirming the
need for a buffer zone (officially) do not seem to be Turkish
officials. For example, Syria's MB leader Riad Shaqfa is calling for a
buffer zone, FSA's Riyad Al Assad, and the SNC basically says they agree
with the Syrian MB (see exact wording below).
In terms of the No Fly Zone, an unnamed Turkish official said no Turkish
military action in Syria has ever been discussed, and in response to a
question regarding imposing a no fly zone Davutoglu stated, "that there
might be a need to enforce some measures if Syria continues its
crackdown on civilians." Then of course there are all of the details
about the No Fly Zone that were published in Sabah which talks about a
5KM buffer zone.
Statements from OS on a Buffer Zone
-Todaya**s Zaman Nov. 21 - "These are the issues to be solved within
Syria. We do not think that any foreign military intervention in Syria
would be appropriate now," Turkish President Abdullah Gul told a group
of journalists aboard a plane carrying him to London on Sunday.
-Todaya**s Zaman Nov. 20 - Earlier in the week, opposition figure and
member of Syria's Muslim Brotherhood Mohammad Riad Shaqfa told Reuters
that the establishment of a "buffer zone" is urgently needed to dampen
the ongoing violence in Syria. "If the international community
procrastinates then more is required from Turkey as a neighbour to be
more serious than other countries to handle this regime," the opposition
figure said earlier this week. Turkey-based Syrian National Council
(SNC) Wael Mirza in an interview with Sunday's Zaman. Mirza, who
supports the official non-violent stance of the SNC, a diverse coalition
of anti-Assad forces, nevertheless maintains that international efforts
must be focused on protecting civilians "by any means."
-Reuters Nov. 19 - Radikal's Yetkin said the Turkish military could
establish a buffer zone if the Syrian army advanced on a city, like
Aleppo, close to the Turkish border. Columnist Asli Aydintasbas of
Milliyet newspaper wrote: "Foreign ministry sources added that Turkey
could set up a no-fly buffer zone within Syria if Syrians fleeing the
army create a mass wave of migration to Turkey. "A more extensive
military intervention could come on the table only if Syrian regime
starts a large-scale massacre in a big city such as Aleppo or Damascus,"
Aydintasbas added. "Ankara could take a role in a military intervention
against Syria only with the international community and following a U.N.
Security Council decision."
-Turkeya**s a**Milliyeta** Nov. 19 - Foreign Ministry officials with
whom I spoke yesterday, saying that "we will not carry out a military
intervention in order to change the regime," expressed in clear language
that Turkey opposes a unilateral military intervention from the outside.
Foreign Ministry sources state that Ankara is putting various scenarios
onto the agenda, and that "in the eventuation of certain conditions, the
military option, even if a low probability, could also be used." These
scenarios are for "a massacre to be carried out by the Syrian regime in
Aleppo or Damascus" and "a great wave of refugees towards the border."
The Foreign Ministry officials said that in the event of a large wave of
refugees fleeing from the military in Syria amassing on the Turkish
border, a "no-flight buffer zone" could be set up within Syria. In the
event of a wave similar to that which took place in Iraq in 1991,
Turkey, rather than opening up its border, would provide the needs of
the people within a safe area inside Syria. There is no need for a UN
Security Council resolution in order to form a buffer zone within the
framework of this scenario.
-Bloomberg Nov. 18 - "We want a buffer zone in the north, on the
Turkish-Syrian border, and another in the south near the border with
Jordan as these would help with our advance," Riad al As'ad, a former
Syrian colonel who leads the Free Syrian Army, said in a phone interview
today.
-Al Sharq Al Awsat Nov. 19 - Syrian National Council General Secretariat
Member Dr Wa'il Mirza adds: "The Muslim Brotherhood leadership has
confirmed to us that this proposal is not a call for a unilateral
military intervention, but it is for a Turkish intervention under the
umbrella of the Arab League to protect the civilians. This also is what
has been confirmed to us by the Turkish foreign minister. Therefore, we
are in agreement with Turkey that any intervention will not be by a
country unilaterally, and that any step towards protecting the citizens
or establishing a buffer zone will be on the basis of Arab League
resolutions. The Arab-Turkish coordination still is continuing within
this framework following the Syrian regime's non-implementation of the
Arab initiative."
-Al Arabiya TV Nov. 17 - When asked to comment on an AFP report that the
Syrian Muslim Brotherhood has asked for Turkish military intervention to
protect civilians by establishing a buffer zone, Iraqi FM Zebari says:
"This issue has been proposed, but intervention will be very difficult
without an international support for it. Therefore, it is very difficult
for Turkey alone to take such a step." He adds that the situation in
Syria is "completely different" from the situation in Libya, noting that
the international intervention and no-fly zone came upon a Security
Council resolution, backed by the Arab League. Therefore, he says, "let
us give the Arab initiative enough time to be effective for both the
regime and opposition."
-Lebanese National News Agency Nov. 13 - Najah Wakim, former parliament
member and president of the Popular Movement, says that "the disgraceful
decision issued by the Arab League meeting was drafted by the US
Pentagon and endorsed by the agent governments that belong to the US and
Israel." He adds. "This grave decision is a basic part of the aggression
plan against Syria that is spearheaded by the United States with a view
to destroying Syria, as well as tearing apart the Arab nation. This
reality has been confirmed by reports about secret and public
communication between these Arab countries and Turkey in order to
establish a buffer zone in Syria, in addition to the statements about
constant and continuous contacts between UN Secretary General Ban
Ki-moon and the Arab League Secretary General Nabil al-Arabi."
Statements from OS on a No Fly Zone
-a**Todaya**s Zamana** Nov. 20 - "There exist no military plans between
Turkey and Syrian opposition, and no plans for a Turkish move have even
been discussed," a Turkish official told Sunday's Zaman. The official,
who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the fragile nature of a
possible military move against Syria, insisted that a possible Turkish
mission to intervene in conflict between president Bashar al-Assad and
anti-regime protesters was a "one-sided" plan.
-Al Sharq Al Awsat Nov. 19 - Faruq Tayfur, Muslim Brotherhood deputy
controller general and spokesman at the Syrian National Council,
syriasyriaTayfur has said to Al-Sharq al-Awsat: "What Shaqfah said about
accepting Turkish intervention came within the context of a talk about
international intervention to resolve the Syrian crisis. During his talk
Shaqfah pointed out that we were pursuing an Arab solution, but if the
Syrian regime did not stop the killing then we would not have any
objection to Turkish intervention and no-fly zone, but without this
meaning a military intervention." With regard to what has been reported
by Turkish newspaper Sabah that the Syrian National Council, including
the Muslim Brotherhood, has asked Turkey to impose a no-fly zone along
the Turkish side of the borders with Syria in order to protect the
civilians, Tayfur stresses: "We have not asked Turkey to do this.
However, this issue was discussed at the meeting between the council
members and the Turkish foreign minister within the framework of
reviewing the probable scenarios to confront the Syrian regime."
-a**Todaya**s Zamana** Nov. 18 - Ahmet Davutoglu, has said pressure on
Syria needs to be increased to stop the bloodshed, starting with
economic sanctions. He also added, upon a question whether Turkey would
support a no-fly zone over Syria, that there might be a need to enforce
some measures if Syria continues its crackdown on civilians.
-a**Todaya**s Zamana** Nov. 18 - In order to accelerate the transition
in the region, which appears inevitable now, Turkey seems to accept the
idea of a no-fly zone in northern Syria to provide a safe haven for the
opposition and to reinforce security at the Turkish border.
-Turkeya**s a**Sabaha** Nov. 18 a** a**SABAH has acquired details of the
plan for Syria put forth by the oppositional forces. The first step of
the plan directed at Syrian State Leader Bashar Assad, which the
opposition has discussed with the Arab League and Turkey, involves
establishing a five kilometer no-fly zone along the Turkish border,
south of Aleppo. This calls for a 5KM no fly zone, full details here.
Articles: The majority of the articles were from Translations, so you
can go back and search key words in Translations to find the articles.
Some of the translations articles are below
Turkey, France call for increased pressure on Syria
Text of report in English by Turkish newspaper Today's Zaman website on
18 November
[Unattributed report: "Turkey and France call for increased pressure on
Syria"]
The Turkish and French foreign ministers, meeting in Ankara on Friday,
called for greater international pressure on Syria as a government
crackdown on anti-regime protesters in Turkey's southern neighbour
escalates.
French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe has said his country opposes any
unilateral intervention against Syria, insisting any such move should be
mandated by the UN. At the joint press conference held after the two
ministers had a tete-a-tete meeting, Juppe called on the UN Security
Council to act against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime, saying
the time has come to toughen sanctions against Syria over its brutal
crackdown on civilians. Juppe, who said France wanted to work with the
Arab League and Turkey as well as the Syrian opposition, has expressed
doubt on whether Syria would respond positively to an Arab League peace
plan proposal.
His Turkish counterpart, Ahmet Davutoglu, has said pressure on Syria
needs to be increased to stop the bloodshed, starting with economic
sanctions. He also added, upon a question whether Turkey would support a
no-fly zone over Syria, that there might be a need to enforce some
measures if Syria continues its crackdown on civilians.
Recalling that Turkey and Syria had close ties in the past, and that
Turkey has made many efforts to convince Assad to end the violence,
Davutoglu expressed his frustration with the Syrian regime which, he
said, not only has turned a deaf ear to all calls of reform coming from
Turkey and the world, but also, and most importantly, opened fire on his
own people instead of listening to their demands. The issue that is of
utmost importance in Syria is to put an end to the violence, Davutoglu
said and explained Turkey's position on the matter: "At the moment the
most important proposal is the one suggested by the Arab League,
according to which the Arab League would send observers to Syria to
inspect the withdrawal of soldiers from the cities. If this initiative
by the Arab league, which Turkey also supports, does not get a positive
response, then some sanctions will be necessary."
Juppe said the EU was planning to toughen the sanctions already in place
against Syria's economic assets and some people in Syria, and added that
the EU countries have already agreed to apply sanctions in such a way
that the ordinary people in Syria would not be affected adversely.
Expressing his doubt about Syria accepting the Arab League's proposals,
Juppe said, "We are not in favour of a unilateral intervention, and
should any military action be needed then that should be mandated by the
UN Security Council." But according to Associated Press, a senior Syrian
official said on Friday that Syria agreed "in principle" to allow an
Arab League observer mission into the country, but Damascus was still
studying the details.
Source: Zaman website, Istanbul, in English 18 Nov 11
BBC Mon Alert EU1 EuroPol ME1 MEPol 181111 sa/osc
A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
Turkey might use "military option" against Syria in case of massacres -
paper
Text of report by Turkish newspaper Milliyet website on 19 November
[Column by Asli Aydintasbas: "We Could Go Into Syria Only if it Engages
in Massacres"]
In an atmosphere in which 30 people per day have been dying in Syria,
and in which rumours of a "buffer zone" have been voiced loudly in the
international media, Ankara has clarified the steps that it is going to
take with regard to its neighbour to the south.
Assessments made in Ankara, which began with Prime Minister [Recep
Tayyip] Erdogan's beginning to take a stance against the [Bashar]
Al-Asad regime in his words at the beginning of the summer to the effect
that "we cannot just look on at the things taking place in Syria,"
feature the points that the Al-Asad regime's days are numbered, that
there no longer remain any possibilities of reform, and that there is no
possibility of "going back" for either the regime or the opposition.
Foreign Ministry sources, saying that "the regime in Syria is going to
collapse like a building constructed by an incompetent contractor," are
of the view that the collapse will occur over the middle term, and not
from "outside intervention" but rather from "within."
Stating that for Ankara, following lengthy efforts aimed at persuasion,
to finally burn its bridges with Bashar al-Asad was "a proper stance,
both from the idealistic and from the realist standpoints," one
high-level official said: "From the standpoint of idealism, you cannot
remain indifferent to the deaths of so many people. And from a realist
standpoint, Turkey's interests call for support to democratization in
the region. The old totalitarian regimes and dictators do not produce
stability. Dictators do not bring stability. This is a regime that has
started to collapse. We are on the side of the people, of the majority.
Stability can only be achieved with the coming of democracy."
Following internal analyses conducted in recent weeks, a steady stream
of diplomatic and intelligence reports, and international contacts,
Ankara has given shape to its Syria policy.
The phase henceforth includes the expansion of economic sanctions within
the UN framework, restrictions on petroleum sales (measures that will be
felt by the middle and upper-middle classes), limiting border traffic,
and organizing the opposition. But what the entire world is wondering
about is whether or not Turkey is engaged in preparations for a military
intervention directed at Syria.
Conditions for Intervention
Foreign Ministry officials with whom I spoke yesterday, saying that "we
will not carry out a military intervention in order to change the
regime," expressed in clear language that Turkey opposes a unilateral
military intervention from the outside.
But this does not mean that the military option, or the formation of a
"buffer zone" closed to flights under the protection of Turkey, is
completely outside the realm of possibility. Foreign Ministry sources
state that Ankara is putting various scenarios onto the agenda, and that
"in the eventuation of certain conditions, the military option, even if
a low probability, could also be used."
These scenarios are for "a massacre to be carried out by the Syrian
regime in Aleppo or Damascus" and "a great wave of refugees towards the
border." The Foreign Ministry officials said that in the event of a
large wave of refugees fleeing from the military in Syria amassing on
the Turkish border, a "no-flight buffer zone" could be set up within
Syria. In the event of a wave similar to that which took place in Iraq
in 1991, Turkey, rather than opening up its border, would provide the
needs of the people within a safe area inside Syria. There is no need
for a UN Security Council resolution in order to form a buffer zone
within the framework of this scenario.
As for a more far-reaching military intervention, it is being considered
only within the scenario of the Syrian regime's embarking upon a
large-scale massacre in a major province such as Aleppo or Damascus.
Ankara states that, in the event of a threatened massacre or an
attempted massacre such as Qadhafi conducted prior to Benghazi, it could
play a role , together with the international community and by getting a
UN Security Council resolution, in a military intervention in Syria.
Confronting Iran
Officials playing a role in the formation of policy on Syria stated
clearly that there is no "Sunni reflex" in Turkey's view of Syria, and
that, just to the contrary, it opposes the "sectarian" vision such as
presented by Iran. One official said: "We have no interest in this
affair's coming to a sectarian dimension; just to the contrary,
religious and sectarian polarization in this region is a serious threat
for us. For this reason, going beyond religion and sect, we are
stressing the culture of compromise and even secularism in Syria, as
well as in Egypt and Iraq."
These words were also the overt admission that the Turkish-Iranian
relationship, which has been experiencing one of its most glowing
periods in history under the AKP [Justice and Development Party]
government, is shifting onto a harsher basis.
Source: Milliyet website, Istanbul, in Turkish 19 Nov 11
BBC Mon EU1 EuroPol ME1 MEPol 201111 mk/osc
A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011
Turkey said ready to impose 5-km deep buffer zone at borders with Syria
Turkish advisor says cover needed for buffer, Opposition says debate
between 5km and 30 km
Excerpt from report by Tha'ir Abbas in London entitled "Ankara announces
it is ready to impose 5-km deep buffer zone and Syrian opposition wants
it 30-km deep. Turkish official to 'Al-Sharq al-Awsat': Zone aim is to
stop cycle of violence and killing in Syria" by Saudi-owned leading
pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat website on 14 November
Turkey announced yesterday it has started urgent international
consultations and with the Arab League [AL] and regional countries to
discuss the "measures that should be taken" in Syria following recent
developments while the "buffer zone" at the Syrian-Turkish borders would
be a "main dish" on the table of discussions between Turkish Foreign
Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and his Arab counterparts at the Turkish-Arab
forum in Rabat on Wednesday, which a Turkish official told al-Sharq
al-Awsat the foreign minister would use to discuss the "abnormal
situation in Syria."
In a statement issued by its foreign ministry, Turkey called on the
international community to act "with one voice" towards the situation in
Syria and said the "Syrian Government's stand reveals the need for the
international community to act with one voice towards the dangerous
developments in Syria." It added that Turkey backs the AL's resolution
to suspend Syria's participation in its meetings until it fulfils its
obligation of implementing the Arab initiative for ending the crisis
which stipulates the cessation of the acts of violence.
While sources in the Syrian opposition asserted to Al-Sharq al-Awsat
that the delegation which met Davutoglu discussed with him the "means of
protecting Syrian civilians by Turkey", a Syrian oppositionist said
Turkey is ready to impose a 5-km deep buffer zone at the borders while
the opposition is proposing 30-km deep zone.
In the first official Turkish comment on the issue, the Turkish
president's Adviser Ersat Hurmuzlu has told Al-Sharq al-Awsat that it is
possible to establish this zone if there is international cover
following the Arab cover secured by the AL's resolutions. He pointed out
that this zone's aim would be "to stop the existing cycle of violence
and killing at present" and said: "Turkey has been backing the AL's
efforts right from the beginning but the Arabs and Turkey were deeply
disappointed by the Syrian administration's failure to implement the
pledges under the Arab initiative with which it said it would comply."
He added that the regime's actions created the united international,
regional, and Arab stand and stressed that "no administration can be
successful and permanent if it wants to remain in power by suppressing
its peoples." The Turkish official also asserted that the Syrian stand
caused the Arab resolution and the hard-line international stands and
Da! mascus cannot hold anyone else responsible for what has happened.
He disclosed that his country has started wide international, regional,
and Arab consultations "to discuss the measures that should be taken"
and pointed out that Foreign Minister Davutoglu would hold intensive
meetings with the Arab foreign ministers on the sidelines of the Rabat
forum after tomorrow (Wednesday) to discuss the "abnormal situations" in
Syria.
Regarding the buffer zone, Hurmuzlu pointed out that there is not a
cover yet for this step and said: "It is possible to take this step but
the cover is the important thing." He added: "The AL resolution is in
itself tantamount to an Arab cover because it includes the option of
later consultation to protect the civilians. If the international
community takes a unified stand on this matter to stop the shedding of
blood and violence then we will welcome such measures for the principal
aim of stopping the existing cycle of violence and killing at present."
He pointed out that his country would not sever its diplomatic relations
with the regime or withdraw its ambassador from Damascus but has
withdrawn the families of staff after the recent events and held Syria
responsible "for protecting the diplomatic missions." He called on the
Syrian leadership to "prevent a repetition of what happened" and
announced that "Turkey maintains its right to take the appropriate me!
asures if no urgent measures were taken to prevent a repetition of what
happened and to bring to account those responsible for them immediately
and without delay." [Passage omitted on Turkey's reaction to attack on
its diplomatic missions in Syria and Turkish Foreign Ministry's
statement]
Source: Al-Sharq al-Awsat website, London, in Arabic 14 Nov 11
BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc EU1 EuroPol 141111 sm
--
Michael Wilson
Director of Watch Officer Group
STRATFOR
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