The Global Intelligence Files,
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The Global Intelligence Files

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# The Global Intelligence Files

On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.

## discussion4 - econ/financial - lehman bros next to bite the dust

Released on 2011-03-15 18:00 GMT

Email-ID | 1154178
Date | 2008-09-11 17:08:21
From | kevin.stech@stratfor.com
To | analysts@stratfor.com
List-Name | analysts@stratfor.com

Lehman is down about 40% today as investors fear the imminent break up
of the iconic Wall st. i-bank. They bet heavily on US mortgage backed
securities, and lost even more heavily (due to massive leverage). There
are talks on of splitting into 2 entities, a "good" bank with salable
assets, and a "bad" bank that will sit there and hold the bag of
worthless subprime and alt-a backed MBS's and other shaky derivatives.
The questions now are: 1) will the implosion of lehman generate another
wave of counterparty risk to other banks who hold the other side of the
derivative contracts? 2) will the federal reserve step in and finance
the creation of the "bad" bank, much like they extended a nearly 30 bn
usd credit line to jp morgan to buy bear stearns? 3) and importantly,
what happens to the counterparties to the "BAD" bank when it finally
collapses?
there are a lot of worthless securities floating around out there,
propping up very large and very undeserved market capitalizations. when
does the next round of credit losses hit? lehman reports earnings sept.
16, so i smell a "deal" going down this weekend before the reportedly
giant ($3.9 bn is what i've heard) write down occurs at lehman. watch
the breakup occur this weekend, with a panicky wave of investor flight
rippling through other financial houses.
other banks are in trouble too. citigroup has been described by
insiders as a 'dead bank walking.' washington mutual is also screwed.
thoughts?
--
Kevin R. Stech
Monitor/Researcher
STRATFOR
Ph: 512.744.4086
Em: kevin.stech@stratfor.com
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