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# The Global Intelligence Files

On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.

## Re: G3/B3* - GREECE - Papa speech: rejects snap elections, doesn't resign and still defends referendum

Released on 2012-02-29 18:00 GMT

Email-ID | 170819
Date | 2011-11-05 01:20:12
From | marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com
To | analysts@stratfor.com, friedman@att.blackberry.net
List-Name | analysts@stratfor.com

But then why didn't we see a more widespread public support for the
referendum? If anything the Greeks were relieved to not have to vote on
the issue.
To expand on a popular metaphor from the FT, the Greeks know they're sick,
don't want the medicine but also no one wants to be the one to refuse it.
Agree that P is screwed anyway.
Sent from my iPhone
On Nov 4, 2011, at 19:09, "George Friedman" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
wrote:
Its not whether or not its a good idea. Its whether any government can
govern if it capitulates to the eu without a referendum. When the cost
hits home and there was neither an election nor a referendum the public
could destroy the political elite and make greece ungovernable.
This is an agonizing deal for the public. Papa is desperately searching
for a way to get the public buy in without suspension of aid by the eu.
He is in a terrible spot and I see no exit for him. He will be crushed
by default now or by an enraged public in a few weeks.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Fri, 4 Nov 2011 19:03:46 -0500 (CDT)
To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
Subject: Re: G3/B3* - GREECE - Papa speech: rejects snap elections,
doesn't resign and still defends referendum
But the original point is that he maintains the referendum was a good
idea... for him. No contest on it being irrelevant at this point.
Sent from my iPhone
On Nov 4, 2011, at 19:01, Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
wrote:
I don't think the referendum idea came from extraneous forces but was
a misguided attempt to discharge responsibility. As you said, the
pressures on P are EU and domestic, the referendum came from neither.
Therefore, id there is one thing he knows he will do it's NOT having a
referendum.
Sent from my iPhone
On Nov 4, 2011, at 18:56, "George Friedman"
<friedman@att.blackberry.net> wrote:
He doesn't know what he will do. He is riding the tiger caught
between the eu leadership and the public. Pay no attention to what
he wants and pay attention to the forces on him. We've seen him
whirling like a dervish for days.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
Date: Fri, 4 Nov 2011 18:43:56 -0500 (CDT)
To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
Subject: Re: G3/B3* - GREECE - Papa speech: rejects snap elections,
doesn't resign and still defends referendum
If Peter meant that Papa still thinks the referendum was the best
idea I agree with him. If he means papa is still thinking of doing
it in the future I'm with Kristen.
Sent from my iPhone
On Nov 4, 2011, at 17:58, Kristen Cooper
<kristen.cooper@stratfor.com> wrote:
I don't think that is what he said. He spent most the time
explaining why he called it in the first place but not still
having it.
Kristen Cooper
512.619.9414
On Nov 4, 2011, at 18:53, Peter Zeihan <zeihan@stratfor.com>
wrote:
I mean papa is still saying that's his plan
On Nov 4, 2011, at 5:41 PM, Kristen Cooper
<kristen.cooper@stratfor.com> wrote:
I really don't think the referendum is still on. He gave that
up awhile ago. There is NO way he would win a confidence vote
if people thought he was still going to call a referendum
On Nov 4, 2011, at 6:23 PM, Peter Zeihan wrote:
Still on the referendum
Awesome
On Nov 4, 2011, at 5:10 PM, Marc Lanthemann
<marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com> wrote:
nothing exciting or historic
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8846201/Debt-crisis-live.html
21.58 Papandreou closes his speech, rejecting talk of snap
elections:
We need to be level-headed. We are managing a crisis. We
need to strengthen democratic institutions or we will
wound democracy. We must be organised and Greece must be
governed without interuption. We require level-headedness,
not frenzy. Political parties which are going to be
collaborating cannot be a government on a status quo that
is dying.
What i want is to operate for today and tomorrow but not
for yesterday. Let's go for the citizens of Greece, for a
country that can be proud and dignified. I want to remind
foreign leaders that they should have belief in the Greek
people. This country is made of hard stuff and the country
does what it is meant to do.
I ask for a vote of confidence so our country has a
government to take necessary steps of security over the
next few months. The country supercedes all of us. United,
we can go forward.
21.43 More humble talk from Mr Papandreou:
I did not see politics as profession. I can contribute to
general good. When I am under criticism i want to send a
clear message, I hope my actions can bring about a
different culture in political life of the country and
media and citizens.
21.41 He opens the door for a coalition government to be
formed.
21.40 Mr Papandreou insists he is not "clinging to power".
He says he is not interested in that. The floor claps.
21.37 More from Mr Papandreou:
I broke a taboo with the referendum [...] Going against
the norm was for the benefit of Greece. We do have
differences, but we also see priorities of countries and
these can best be served with collaborations.
A transitional government would mean catastrophe. This
should not happen. Snap elections would mean the bail-out
would be up in the air.
21.35 He says early elections would be a "catastrophe".
21.29 Mr Papandreou continues:
It is in the interest of the Greek nation, this bailout. I
am curious how all oppositions oppose this. What did they
fear? Rejection by greek people of bailout?
[The referendum] was a democratic decision which shook the
markets.
But we the Greek nation exists which finally must decide.
Many on the right and on the left said we were bothering
our partners, and therefore there was hypocracy abound.
[So] yes financial markets exist, but first of all people
exist.
21.17 Mr Papandreou asks Parliament for greater
collaboration and cooperation. He says:
The bailout allows us to write-off a large part of our
debt in the next few months [it] permits us to give the
energy to build a Greece of growth.
Greek people, There is no problem with your deposits in
the banks because of the bailout. They are even more
guaranteed with us in the eurozone.
[...] This bailout is tremendous opportunity to rebuild
country on new foundations.
Papandreou steps up to address the Greek parliament on
Fridsy (Photo: AP)
21.12 There are shades of the British Commons as George
Papandreou finally takes the mic. He blames the previous
government for multiplying the debt and the a**tragic
mistakesa** that have been made. He adds:
We are living through a new trial, and some of us wish to
forget what has happened in the past.
--
Marc Lanthemann
Watch Officer
STRATFOR
+1 609-865-5782
www.stratfor.com