The Global Intelligence Files,
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The Global Intelligence Files

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# The Global Intelligence Files

On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.

## Re: The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival

Released on 2012-08-06 00:00 GMT

Email-ID | 35760
Date | 2010-12-09 06:29:38
To | drew@fark.com

Thanks. I'm getting a kick out of Anon activities related to this whole
thing.
Solomon Foshko
Global Intelligence
STRATFOR
T: 512.744.4089
F: 512.744.0239
Solomon.Foshko@stratfor.com
On Dec 7, 2010, at 11:50 AM, Drew Curtis wrote:
sup man
here's some extra info along these same lines:
http://www.neontommy.com/news/2010/12/war-internet-anonymous-defends-wikileaks-after-cablegate
On Tue, 7 Dec 2010, Stratfor wrote:
Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 11:39:45 -0600
From: Stratfor <noreply@stratfor.com>
To: DrewAtFark <drew@fark.com>
Subject: The Assange Arrest and WikiLeaks' Survival
STRATFOR
---------------------------
December 7, 2010
THE ASSANGE ARREST AND WIKILEAKS' SURVIVAL
Summary
WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange surrendered to authorities in Britain
on Dec. 7, following an Interpol Red Notice based on a Swedish arrest
warrant. WikiLeaks is a relatively young organization with one leader
and has not institutionalized a set of practices and protocols that
guarantee its survival even if the personnel changes. Assange's arrest
will test the organization's ability to maintain itself, but the use
of the Internet to leak documents will continue.
Analysis
London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 9:30 a.m. local time on Dec. 7
after Assange turned himself in. He is due to appear in a court in
Westminster soon over sexual assault charges filed against him in
Sweden, and faces possible extradition.
There is considerable interest in what his arrest will mean for his
organization. WikiLeaks organized a new method for an old practice --
leaking confidential government information in an attempt to influence
politics. And while Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term
viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of the current
batch of diplomatic cables in the short term, nor will it stop similar
future leaks via the Internet.
Leadership is extremely important in nongovernmental organizations
that have not institutionalized to the point where their dominant
figures are replaceable and members can adapt to changing
circumstance. From terrorist groups to charities, new organizations
often rise and fall with their founders. Assange created WikiLeaks
with himself as the only public face -- he leads supporters, drives
donations, gives interviews and faces the resulting criticism. There
have been reports of internal dissent and tensions, and in one
interview with CNN, a discussion of the organization's internal
politics seemed to touch a nerve with Assange. If Assange were to face
charges in Sweden for sexual assault or new charges in the United
Kingdom or the United States and was found guilty, WikiLeaks would
still need someone to oversee it. Assange may have someone ready to
fill the leadership void, but there has been no evidence of this.
In addition to having its leadership threatened, WikiLeaks has
suffered logistically. As national governments put pressure on its
infrastructure, its web server has been shut down, and most important,
a major source of funding, PayPal, has closed WikiLeaks' account (Visa
and Mastercard have also banned payments from their cards to
WikiLeaks). It is also possible the events of the past few months will
deter other potential leakers from approaching WikiLeaks as opposed to
other organizations (especially if they dislike or disagree with
Assange). Moreover, this new set of documents has not been greeted
with the reaction Assange expected -- the U.S. public is not angry at
the State Department, but many are angry at Assange and his
organization.
Immediately following Assange's arrest, a WikiLeaks spokesman said the
arrest would not stop the group's operations. Indeed, whether Assange
remains behind bars or not, it most likely will not stop the continued
release of the 250,000 U.S. State Department cables, only a fraction
of which have been released thus far. It also will not shut down
WikiLeaks, which still maintains its website -- albeit currently on a
Swiss server, after its initial U.S.-hosted servers were deactivated
-- and the ability to collect information from leakers. So in the
short term, WikiLeaks will persist. The question remains if Assange
created a truly sustainable institution.
If Assange is extradited to Sweden and tried on one count of unlawful
coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, it
is not clear to what degree the image of WikiLeaks will be damaged;
thus far Assange has cultivated the site as an extension of his
persona, and even without the assault charges he is not held in high
repute. The extradition process could take months or even years, and
he may try to use prison time to develop his image as a martyr for
free speech, but this can backfire. If WikiLeaks, however, is not tied
to his image, it will be much more sustainable as an organization.
Western governments also fear whatever is contained in his "insurance"
file, a 1.4-gigabyte computer file that has already been distributed
to many thousands of people over the Internet. Assange has threatened
to release the encryption password if something happens to him. As
STRATFOR has stated before, WikiLeaks likely led with its most
insightful documents, and thus those saved in the insurance file are
probably less enlightening than they are damaging. The file may
contain no new information at all, but simply the names and
information on sources, diplomats, military and intelligence officers
not already disclosed. Such a release could put these individuals'
jobs or even lives at risk. However, such a release exposing these
individuals in a vindictive manner could further tarnish Assange and
WikiLeaks in the eyes of the international public, to include
potential financial and information contributors. Beyond that,
governments will almost certainly take stronger measures
against WikiLeaks if it does release identities of classified sources or
officers.
WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations face at
some point -- the ability to maintain and transition leadership
through adverse circumstances. Assange may be released quickly, but if
he is not, WikiLeaks' survival will be in question. However, even if
WikiLeaks disappears, the organizational concept will continue, and
leaks along with it. WikiLeaks has only demonstrated the ability new
technology has created to transfer large quantities of documents, and
there is no reason other organizations will not make use of the same
technology.
Copyright 2010 STRATFOR.
Drew Curtis
Fark.com: It's not news, It's Fark