id,title,description,date,dateprecision,releasedate,permalink,From,ListName,To
2726,"Bob Rushing's Departure
","All:  

Bob Rushing has decided to pursue other opportunities and will be
leaving us.  We appreciate his efforts while he was with us and wish him
the best.

______________________________________________
Ronald E. Moore
Vice President for Operations and Intelligence
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
700 Lavaca St., Suite 900
Austin, TX 78701
512-744-4300
moore@stratfor.com 
","2005-06-23 18:39:52",1,"2012-03-15 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2726_bob-rushing-s-departure-.html","moore@stratfor.com","","allstratfor@stratfor.com",""
5490,"RE: GV Mailouts
","39","2007-02-13 19:14:12",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5490_re-gv-mailouts-.html","mirela.glass@stratfor.com","","hanna@stratfor.com,campbell@stratfor.com,Solomon.Foshko@stratfor.com","attach/1/1595_GV MASTER Client List 2-5-07.xls"
5940,"GV MASTER CLIENT LIST 15 March 07
","","2007-03-16 16:35:14",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5940_gv-master-client-list-15-march-07-.html","campbell@stratfor.com","","glass@stratfor.com,sagebiel@stratfor.com,gibbons@stratfor.com,Solomon.Foshko@stratfor.com","attach/1/1785_GV MASTER Client List 3-15-07.xls"
6067,"GV master client list 2/23
","","2007-02-23 21:06:33",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/6067_gv-master-client-list-2-23-.html","campbell@stratfor.com","","sagebiel@stratfor.com,gibbons@stratfor.com,hanna@stratfor.com,Solomon.Foshko@stratfor.com,mirela.glass@stratfor.com","attach/1/1831_GV MASTER Client List 2-23-07.xls"
14617,"STRATFOR - Security Reminder 
","","2009-09-02 21:31:23",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/14617_stratfor-security-reminder-.html","leticia.pursel@stratfor.com","","undisclosed-recipients:","attach/3/3250_STRATFOR Security Information and Instructions.pdf"
31423,"Re: Marine Corps
","   US Marines lead the way!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Ronald A Duchin\" <duchin@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2010 17:29:55 -0400
   To: 'George Friedman'<gfriedman@stratfor.com>; <allstratfor@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Marine Corps

   George:

    

   Many thanks for your congratulations on this. I think this worked and will
   continue to work because we have a mission-oriented product that serves
   the client's needs on a timely basis. The Marines were impressed by our
   willingness to incorporate their needs into the portal.  There's more to
   come from the Marine Corps and the other services now that we sold this
   one at the Commandant's level.

    

   -Ron

    

   Ronald A. Duchin

   703-407-4297

   duchin@verizon.net

   duchin@STRATFOR.com

    

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: George Friedman [mailto:gfriedman@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, July 29, 2010 3:50 PM
   To: allstratfor
   Subject:

    

   All

   I want to announce our first--and major sale--of a portal. The Marine
   Corps has purchased a hundred seat license to our Military Portal.B As you
   will all recall, our Portal Strategy was designed to take our current
   content, and focus it through dedicated portals on particular markets. We
   have developed a Security Portal and a Military Portal toward that end.B
   This sale represents both our first sale and a large sale to a significant
   customer. It tells us that the strategy works.

   I should also point out that this product sold with remarkable speed. It
   took some two months from conception to implementation to sale. In the DOD
   world, that's breakneck speed.B Tracy Rana, a new sales representative
   managed the sale, and Ron Duchin opened the door--the all important step.B
   Anya Alfano and Nate Hughes served as the Briefers and Kevin Garry did the
   ITB work.

   I particularly want to mention Bob Merry and Beth Bronder.B This was their
   strategy. It consisted of taking existing content and organizing it in
   such a way as to make it more useful and attractive to particular
   customers.B The theory was that less was more.B The decisions by the
   Marines to buy is proof of concept--it works.

   Of course, all of Stratfor made this sale possible, from Intelligence
   which produced the content, to finance that controlled our costs so that
   resources were available to undertake the project to Consumer Sales that
   generate cash to keep us going.B This is an all Stratfor effort.

   We have taken all available resource and put them behind this project and
   related projects.B The theory was that austerity now will build prosperity
   in the future.B This sale tells us that that strategy is going to work. I
   thank all of you for your hard work and your understanding that investing
   now builds prosperity in the future.B This sale tells us that this
   strategy will work.

   There is a huge amount of work ahead of course.B But we now have a strong
   indication that the work will pay off.

   George

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

    

   PhoneB 512-744-4319

   FaxB 512-744-4334
","2010-07-29 23:37:33",1,"2012-03-11 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/31423_re-marine-corps-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","allstratfor@stratfor.com,gfriedman@stratfor.com,duchin@stratfor.com",""
39826,"Two more surveys
","","2011-02-08 14:17:59",1,"2012-03-01 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/39826_two-more-surveys-.html","sf@feldhauslaw.com","","rbaker@stratfor.com,Solomon.Foshko@stratfor.com,john.gibbons@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,exec@stratfor.com,ryan.sims@stratfor.com,anya.alfano@stratfor.com,jenna.colley@stratfor.com,zucha@stratfor.com,wright@stratfor.com,kevin.garry@stratfor.com,kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com,kelly.tryce@stratfor.com,matthew.solomon@stratfor.com,tim.duke@stratfor.com,megan.headley@stratfor.com,rob.bassetti@stratfor.com,grant.perry@stratfor.com,karen.hooper@stratfor.com,frank.ginac@stratfor.com","attach/6/6616_Greg Hudson Retired Textron STRATFOR Professional Survey Mexico.docx
attach/6/6617_Efurd Hunt Oil STRATFOR Professional Survey China and Mexico.docx"
49606,"Turkey, Cyprus: Rising Energy Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean
","    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Turkey, Cyprus: Rising Energy Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean        
                                                                              
    September 28, 2011 | 2017 GMT                                             
    Turkey, Cyprus: Rising Energy Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean       
    AFP/Getty Images                                                          
    Turkish seismic survey vessel Piri Reis moored at Izmir port Sept. 23     
    Summary                                                                   
                                                                              
    Tensions have been increasing in the eastern Mediterranean over an        
    energy exploration project initiated by the government of Cyprus, which   
    controls the southwestern part of the island. The Turkish Republic of     
    Northern Cyprus, which is not recognized by any country other than        
    Turkey and hosts Turkish military forces in the island's northeast, has   
    protested that the island's sovereignty issues must be resolved before    
    Cyprus proceeds unilaterally with energy development. Both Cyprus and     
    Turkey see an opportunity in pushing the dispute right now, but Turkey's  
    options in the confrontation are limited, and the real challenge will     
    come if Cyprus insists on proceeding from exploration to actual energy    
    production.                                                               
                                                                              
    Analysis                                                                  
                                                                              
    A Turkish seismic survey vessel started natural gas exploration Sept. 27  
    in an area off the southern coast of Cyprus, near where the Cypriot       
    government began drilling Sept. 20. Ankara's move to begin exploration    
    follows a deal reached Sept. 21 between Turkey and the Turkish Republic   
    of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which controls the northeastern part of the    
    island, on a continental shelf delimitation agreement giving the coastal  
    state the right to exploit seabed resources and licensing the Turkish     
    Petroleum International Co. to begin energy exploration there. Turkey     
    also has stated that it will send naval submarines and frigates to        
    protect the survey vessel, though details on this remain unclear.         
                                                                              
    Tensions over energy issues were simmering for years before the recent    
    escalation. Turkey has opposed drilling by the Cypriot government since   
    plans were initially put forward in 2007, but Ankara did not take any     
    significant action against the project until the drilling began; the      
    deployment of the seismic survey vessel and supporting the TRNC's own     
    energy projects is Turkey's way of catching up. However, the conflict     
    has less to do with energy competition than with Turkey's geopolitical    
    influence.                                                                
                                                                              
    Cyprus believes the present circumstances give it a unique opportunity    
    to initiate its energy development project. For one, the fraying ties     
    between Turkey and Israel increase the risks for Ankara of conducting     
    any sort of naval operations close to the drilling area. Turkey's ties    
    with the European Union are also at a low point. Cyprus hopes to portray  
    Ankara as a provocateur in this dispute and undermine Turkish-EU          
    relations further before assuming the rotating EU presidency in the       
    second half of 2012.                                                      
                                                                              
    Turkey also sees an opportunity in the situation. [IMG] Ankara is viewed  
    as a rising power in the region, but thus far it has had difficulty       
    substantiating its position with anything more than rhetoric. After       
    learning the limits of rhetoric in its confrontation with Israel,         
    failing to secure even an apology for the deaths of nine Turks in the     
    May 2010 flotilla incident, Turkey has looked elsewhere in the eastern    
    Mediterranean - to Cyprus - for a place to demonstrate its influence.     
    With the European Union currently distracted by the Greek debt crisis,    
    Ankara believes now is the time to pressure Cyprus, but it is not clear   
    how hard Turkey is willing to push in making its presence felt.           
                                                                              
     Energy in the Eastern Mediterranean                                      
                                                                              
    Cyprus has been divided since Turkey militarily intervened there in 1974  
    after a Greek-inspired coup attempt. The island is split between a Greek  
    Cypriot southwest, which is internationally recognized, and a Turkish     
    Cypriot northeast represented by the TRNC, which was established in 1983  
    and is only recognized by Ankara. Peace talks between the two sides       
    began in 2008, but little progress has been made. Turkey has asserted     
    that Cyprus does not have the right to exploit the island's seabed        
    resources unilaterally until the island's status is resolved, a right     
    the Greek Cypriot government, as the island's only official               
    representative at the United Nations and a member of the European Union,  
    has claimed.                                                              
                                                                              
    Turkey, Cyprus: Rising Energy Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean       
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
    Despite Turkey's protests, the Greek Cypriot government went ahead with   
    the development plans, granting U.S.-based Noble Energy an exploration    
    license in 2007 in Block 12 (where drilling began Sept. 20) of Cyprus'    
    Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), a maritime boundary that gives a state     
    the right to conduct economic activities up to 200 nautical miles (370    
    kilometers) from its coast. Block 12 is the only area in the EEZ for      
    which Cyprus has granted a license, and it sits near the Leviathan and    
    Tamar offshore fields, which Israel has been developing in partnership    
    with Noble Energy since 1998.                                             
                                                                              
    Israel signed an agreement with Cyprus recognizing the Cypriot            
    government's EEZ in December 2010, a few months after the May flotilla    
    incident severely damaged relations with Turkey - likely not a            
    coincidence. (Cyprus signed similar deals with Egypt in 2003 and Lebanon  
    in 2007.) Though Israel has largely stayed out of the current dispute     
    between Turkey and Cyprus, it has been happy to see Turkey's rhetorical   
    calls for an end to drilling go unheeded and remind Turkey of the costs   
    of losing Israel as a partner.                                            
                                                                              
    Tensions had already been increasing in the eastern Mediterranean after   
    the Turkish government announced Sept. 8 that its warships would escort   
    any aid ship that sails toward the Gaza Strip to break the                
    Israeli-imposed blockade. This announcement was made shortly after the    
    leaking of a newspaper report that said the U.N. investigation on the     
    flotilla incident found the Israeli action legal. Even though it is yet   
    to be seen whether Turkey would make good on this threat (or even allow   
    another aid ship to sail toward Gaza from its ports), it nevertheless     
    indicated that Turkey was not officially ruling out a military role in    
    addressing its concerns. Now the Turkish energy minister has stated that  
    Ankara will send frigates and submarines deployed in the eastern          
    Mediterranean to escort the survey vessel conducting energy exploration   
    if needed.                                                                
                                                                              
     Europe and the Timing Question                                           
                                                                              
    Ankara expected that the financial turmoil currently engulfing Europe -   
    with Cyprus' main benefactor, Greece, at its epicenter - would make       
    Cyprus feel more vulnerable to Turkish pressure and thus more likely to   
    capitulate. In addition, Turkey's relations with the European Union are   
    at their lowest point, and Ankara is unlikely to adjust its behavior to   
    curry the favor of a bloc that appears unlikely to ever let Turkey join   
    it. Indeed, no chapter in Turkey-EU accession talks has opened since      
    July 2010, and the Turkish government already announced it would suspend  
    all ties with the European Union when Cyprus assumes the European         
    Union's rotating presidency in 2012. The division was demonstrated most   
    recently when German Chancellor Angela Merkel pointedly stated on the     
    eve of Turkish President Abdullah Gul's Sept. 20 visit that Germany did   
    not favor Turkey's joining the bloc.                                      
                                                                              
    Turkey has not formally dropped its EU bid but has mainly continued it    
    for public relations reasons as it increasingly turns its attention to    
    the Middle East, where it has a historical leadership role. The           
    long-stagnant EU application, therefore, will not make Turkey             
    particularly sensitive to Brussels' condemnation if Ankara decides to     
    escalate its actions from rhetoric and sending surveying vessels to a     
    more active role for the naval assets it claims to have deployed to       
    Cyprus.                                                                   
                                                                              
     Turkey Lacking Washington's Support                                      
                                                                              
    In pursuing the Cyprus issue, Turkey had hoped to receive the backing of  
    the United States. Washington needs help from Ankara on a number of       
    issues, from containing Iran's influence in Iraq after the U.S.           
    withdrawal to a ballistic missile defense installation aimed at           
    countering Russia. Turkey hoped that, if not outright endorsing Ankara's  
    position and calling for Cyprus to end its drilling, the United States    
    would at least turn a blind eye to Turkey's efforts. However, this has    
    turned out not to be the case. A U.S.-based company is involved in        
    Cyprus' drilling operations, and Washington is making clear in a number   
    of ways that it is supporting Cyprus in the dispute.                      
                                                                              
    Ultimately, Turkey is facing serious constraints in its effort to halt    
    Cypriot energy exploration. While STRATFOR sources have said the Turkish  
    government will tolerate exploration but draws a redline on energy        
    production from Block 12, there is little Turkey can do short of          
    military action to stop the Cypriot government. Even trying to begin its  
    own energy production as a response is not a likely option, because       
    while the Turkish Petroleum International Co. may be able to conduct      
    exploration on its own, it would need to find a foreign partner with the  
    technical capabilities to begin resource extraction. And few foreign      
    firms would be willing to take the political risk of working with Turkey  
    and the TRNC, which is not internationally recognized, in these waters.   
                                                                              
    Turkey chose to confront Cyprus on the energy issue because it believed   
    the move, if successful, could serve to prevent Ankara from gaining a     
    reputation as being unable to make good on its rhetoric or purported      
    influence. If it fails to get Cyprus to stop drilling, Turkey will look   
    even more ineffectual than it began. Ankara has raised the stakes for     
    itself in this dispute, and the question now becomes whether it backs     
    down on pressuring Cyprus to stop the drilling, or if not, how far it is  
    willing to take matters in order to prevent another embarrassment.        
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
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    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
","2011-09-29 00:37:49",1,"2012-08-01 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/49606_turkey-cyprus-rising-energy-tensions-in-the-eastern.html","noreply@stratfor.com","mailto:stratforaustin@stratfor.com","allstratfor@stratfor.com",""
49613,"Labor Day Review of Where We Are
","   THIS IS FOR INTERNAL STRATFOR USE ONLY. DO NOT SHARE THIS DOCUMENT OR
   DISCUSS IT OUTSIDE OF STRATFOR.

    

    

    

   I hope you've all had a great Labor Day Weekend. This Labor Day marks a
   turning point in Stratfor's history, and I wanted to share my thoughts
   with you and some plans. It used to be, not so long ago, that we were so
   small that information flowed to all hands by itself.  It is hard for me
   to recognize sometimes that this is no longer true, so I will provide an
   extensive review of where we are and what is coming.  Some of this will be
   old hat to some of you; some of this will be new.  This is an attempt to
   start getting everyone on the same page. 

    

   Historically, Stratfor was unique in a number of ways. First, we accepted
   no advertising. Second, we charged for our subscriptions. Finally, we were
   revenue driven. We build the company from our revenues.  This kept us
   independent, it kept us free to experiment-and at times fail, it kept us
   tight. We were reaching a point where we our revenues did not keep up with
   our needs and market opportunities.

    

   Shea Morenz provided us with two opportunities.  First, he made an
   investment in Stratfor designed to give us the capital needed to build our
   staff and our marketing.  Second, he proposed a new venture, StratCap,
   which would allow us to utilize the intelligence we were gathering about
   the world in a new but related venue-an investment fund. Where we had
   previously advised other hedge funds. We would now have our own, itself
   fully funded by Shea.  Shea invested over $2 million in Stratfor and more
   in StratCap. In return he took a seat on Stratfor's board and a minority
   position in Stratfor, whose control remains in Don's and my hands.  It was
   a good deal for Stratfor, a good deal for StratCap, and since the deal
   closed officially on August 1, we now have the task of doing what we all
   want-building Stratfor and StratCap.

    

   Our cash position is not spectacular by any means, but we have the
   resources to build the kind of company we want, when that investment is
   combined with our revenues.  With cash under control we need to address
   the next problem-people. We all are doing more than our share to keep
   things going.  In some ways that good but it can be overdone, and we are
   overdoing it throughout the company.  Our job now is to expand the team. 
   Money is one element of that, but relieving the pressure we are under in a
   way increases the pressure, because we have to recruit and train new
   people. So it gets harder before it gets easier, and that's the point we
   are at.

    

   Let's divide our departments into two groups.  There are those departments
   that must train their own people, particularly in intelligence beyond the
   normal training needed by new employees.  We do that because no one thinks
   of the world like Stratfor, and that means that we can't hire people from
   other organizations, or at least not without a major training programming,
   which in our experience lasts up to two years.  Then there are departments
   that don't have this burden and that can hire people readily from other
   organizations.  Both groups of departments must grow and train, but the
   burden of training is much heavier in the Intelligence departments that
   train their staff from the bottom up than on other departments.  It is
   important for everyone to understand this distinction.  It is not that
   people in Intelligence are more important or more valuable than those in
   other departments.  It just means they face different problems in growing
   and that if they don't grow, other things can't happen.

    

   Now let's consider the tasks ahead.  First and foremost-and always first
   and foremost-we must be the world's leading private intelligence
   organization (and one of the finest intelligence organizations, period)
   and we must sell our intelligence through publishing.  Our current staff
   has done an outstanding job, but they are thin and sometimes we are weak. 
   We must do better in economics, and we must make certain that no AOR
   depends on only one person. There are lots of things that are needed. 

    

   Second, we are committed to supporting StratCap, a private fund that will
   begin operations some time this coming spring. What StratCap will do is
   use our Stratfor's intelligence and analysis to trade in a range of
   geopolitical instruments, particularly government bonds, currency and the
   like in the world's emerging markets.  Shea Morenz initiated this idea and
   leads it.  At the root of StratCap is a simple idea: Stratfor should put
   its money where its mouth is.  It does not conflict with Stratfor, but is
   an extension of it.

    

   Do not think of StratCap as an outside organization.  It will be integral
   to Stratfor, in the sense that much of the intelligence we are developing
   is useful to Stratcap as well as Stratfor.  The organizational and legal
   distinctions are real and important, but StratCap is linked to Stratfor
   intellectually and contractually.  It will be useful to you if, for the
   sake of convenience, you think of it as another aspect of Stratfor and
   Shea as another executive in Stratfor. 

    

   Let me also add that it is our commitment that all our team will benefit
   if StratCap is successful through some mechanism to be defined. This isn't
   an attempt to get you to work harder for the same money.  But that
   discussion must wait until the legal and administrative relationships of
   StratCap and its relation to Stratfor are worked out and reviewed by
   something called \"compliance officers,\" people who make certain that we do
   not violate any regulations. 

    

   From that point of view, StratCap is something under construction.  You
   can see Shea Morenz hammering away building it in the corner office he
   took from Darryl. In the world of StratCap, corner offices are marketing
   tools.  This points to the fact that StratCap will be building its own
   staff and they come from a different world from Stratfor with a different
   culture.  That said, we have a great deal to learn from StratCap to
   strengthen Stratfor's understanding of economics and it has much to learn
   from us.  We are already working on mock portfolios and trades, testing
   our skills.  Kendra, Korena, Melissa, Jen, Peter, Meredith and myself are
   all involved in this along with Shea and Alfredo, a trader that makes us
   easy to understand compared to him. It's going pretty well in fact, but
   supporting StratCap will be a cultural and intellectual challenge.  It's
   important now to recognize that it is already here, growing and we will
   accommodate to it and it to us.

    

   I want to emphasize is that there is neither a legal, intellectual nor
   moral tension between Stratfor and StratCap.  We will continue to publish
   what we think is true.  StratCap is interested in our broad ideas but
   mostly in the obscure nuggets picked up by intelligence that are usually
   of little interest to our general readers.  My pledge to you and our
   readers is that our publication will remain untouched by StratCap-because
   they are merely different sides of the same coin, intelligence.

    

   We have also been asked to help the United States Marine Corps and other
   government intelligence organizations to teach them how Stratfor does what
   it does, and train them in becoming government Stratfors. We are beginning
   this project by preparing a three-year forecast for the Commandant of the
   Corps.  This is a double honor for us.  First, the professional
   intelligence community is acknowledging us as being the gold standard of
   intelligence.  Second, we are being asked to use our honest and unhedged
   views to support what is for Stratfor-an American company-its homeland. 
   Again, as with StratCap, there is no tension. We will tell the U.S.
   government precisely what we tell our readers and we think ourselves.  Our
   first lesson to the government is that intelligence organizations exist to
   make decision makers uncomfortable, not to make them feel better about
   their decisions. I didn't come this far to compromise on that. 

    

   Add to this that the fact that Turkish Chamber of Commerce (not its name
   but close enough; its name is TUSIAD) asked us to preside over their 40th
   anniversary celebration, and that the Turkish Foreign Minister and Energy
   Minister will speak at the event, and you can see both our global
   recognition and our commitment to speak the same words to every country.
   We can serve the world from the same platform.

    

   So think about it.  We have three triumphs.  First, our publication is now
   read by almost 300,000 people (counting our corporate accounts).  We are a
   major force around the world.  Second, Shea-a guy who has played with the
   big boys at Goldman Sachs, asked us to play in the majors with him. 
   Third, the USMC has asked for our help, and with them others in the
   defense community.  These are three validations of us that are precious to
   me.

    

   Obviously, there is no way in the world that we can do all these
   things-plus the endless little projects that we must do all the time-with
   the staff we have.  And given that we take two years to train new
   analysts, and all of this is on us now-we have an urgent problem.  We
   can't punt opportunities at hand and continue at our current size. Nor can
   we easily expand.  So we will therefore expand with difficulty.  There is
   no choice.  Our Analyst Development Program is the means where we train
   people and find new analysts as well as find some staff for publishing
   (watch officers, monitors, operations center and writers all under Jenna
   Colley). We will have the largest group of ADPs ever this fall, starting
   next week.  About 13 people at last count will be joining us.  This is a
   huge percentage of the number of analysts on staff. Ideally all will work
   out well and our crisis will be over.  That's unlikely but our crisis will
   be mitigated by January 1. Doing this will put a huge burden on
   Intelligence, who must do their work and also train these people, but
   there is no choice.  This is the year when we break out.  I promise to
   work side by side with the team in training and growing he organization. 
   I also promise that if we succeed, we will become one of the most
   significant and prestigious foreign policy publications in the world-and
   those that made it happen will be known.  I know there are questions about
   by-lines. You know my hesitation, but we will figure out together someway
   to make sure that the glory is shared.

    

   Intelligence is divided into three parts.  There is Strategic Intelligence
   (under Rodger assisted by Reva) that is organized geographically.  There
   is Tactical Intelligence (under Stick, assisted by Nate Hughes) that is
   organized thematically-organized crime, cyber-warfare, military,
   terrorism, security, financial flows, supply chain and so on.  There is
   then intelligence gathering, under Meredith, assisted by Jen Richmond that
   is building sources from around the world.  All of them must grow
   dramatically.  The first two will grow mostly out of the ADP pool. The
   latter will be done by extensive work in the field.  But it is the Writers
   Group that is making the most impressive evolution.  Under Jenna (and Tim
   French and Maverick) it has moved into the heart of intelligence, writing
   as well as editing.  Everyone should watch this team. They are pioneering
   things the world hasn't seen yet. Along with Watch Officers, monitors and
   the operations center, this unit is translating intelligence into product
   with increasing effectiveness.  It is now organizationally mature and
   ready to both grow and sustain the growth of Intelligence.

    

   This growth will put a tremendous strain on other departments. Leticia has
   done a tremendous job in Human Resources, but the job has grown much
   greater than she can possibly manage.  Just the process of getting visas
   for new ADPs is overwhelming, and at least half of these come from other
   countries.  We have selected an HR consulting firm to support her in the
   coming months and other solutions will be found to sustain this. HR will
   become more effective in the next months. In addition, we are retaining a
   law firm to create a policy for Stratfor on Foreign Corrupt Practices
   Act.  I don't plan to do the perp walk and I don't want anyone here doing
   it either.  We need some clear guidelines on the law and are getting them,
   particularly as we ramp our intelligence capability. Similarly finance has
   kept us all going and similarly it has to expand, although it is a shade
   less pressured than HR is.

    

   IT faces a huge challenge.  Traditional IT organizations focus on the
   development of new capabilities for a company and sustaining complex
   systems. At Stratfor, the focus must also be on sustaining basic systems
   like phones, email, configuring and fixing laptops and cell phones and so
   on-the basic tools that make our work possible and which are a particular
   challenge in a global company operating 24-7.  That gives our IT
   department a different shape and tempo than exists in other companies.
   With this class of ADPs, 24-7 will become very real.  IT is under pressure
   to maintain its focus on improving the web site and corporate systems but
   has a special and intense mission of supporting a growing, global company
   at the ground level, and the pressure is never going to be greater than
   now with all the new people coming on board in all departments. Creating
   an IT department that fits our peculiar needs will be Frank's challenge.

    

   I want to also point to two departments that are performing extremely
   well.  Customer Service at Stratfor is among the best in the business.  We
   daily get emails praising their work. John Gibbons has done an amazing job
   keeping this going.  More subscribers mean more customer service of
   course.

    

   Also to be mentioned is he on-line marketing team who has just done
   something very impressive. There is usually a slump in subscriptions after
   a Red Alert, and there was one, but in a matter of weeks they pitched in
   and turned it around with some strange and wonderful campaigns.  They have
   broken their forecast in spite of a pretty quiet world.  Its amazing the
   kind of ads that work!

    

   Let's turn to marketing and sales and the future.  Our readership is now
   about 5 percent of the Economist when we exclude corporate (not sure why
   we exclude corporate but that's what we do).  That means that we have
   probably saturated a good part of the early adopters market-the early
   adopters who love us and have built us-and put up with our weaknesses.
   It's kind of like people who supported Apple in its dark days, putting up
   with promising but not yet mature computers.  If you haven't read,
   \"Crossing the Chasm,\" a rare business book that is actually helpful,
   please take a look at it.  It will explain much of what we are trying to
   achieve in marketing.

    

   We have no choice but to grow.  If we stay this size someone larger, with
   deep pockets will notice the market we have created and come in after us. 
   We won't be able to compete.  The only protection is market share, to be
   so dominant a force in the market that no one challenges us and our own
   deep pockets.  For this we must grow revenue and that means readership. 
   The place we must grow is in the mainstream.  I don't mean by mainstream
   CNN. I mean readers who are interested in what we have, but aren't
   fanatics, groupies and wannabes.  These people have higher standards in
   production values, and less forgiveness for mistakes. They don't buy the
   mystique.  They buy the publication. That's where most of our customers
   are and where we have to go.

    

   Obviously this is one of the reasons we need more people.  It is also the
   reason we must deliver in new ways.  Grant Perry and his team are looking
   at ways to create a unique, Stratfor video culture. I see this myself as
   consisting of much longer and serious conversations among analysts
   moderated by an anchor, documentaries, briefings. Perhaps our Sitreps
   should all be delivered via video and audio (there is I think huge demand
   for audio products in cars, or so many people tell me).  All of this will
   evolve in unexpected directions under Grant, Colin, Brian, Andrew and
   others who will join them. This is part of our own evolution into the
   mainstream, on our own terms, with our own voice. What you see above, by
   the way, are simply my own ideas, not fully thought out.  Whatever Grant
   and his team produce will be uniquely Stratfor.

    

   Other than that we shall see.  What markets we will enter, and how we
   enter them is not yet known. We do know that the current Stratfor product,
   however enhanced, will be our only offering.  We will not be developing
   new products for markets. 

    

   We have hired a consultant, Mark Stacey, who will guide this process.  We
   will also be bringing in a consulting firm to do survey research and
   interviews to teach us more about our current readers, readers who won't
   buy us, and readers who would buy us if they had heard of us.  Our choice
   was between hiring staff to give us a plan or hiring consultants to give
   us a plan and then hiring permanent staff to execute it.  The latter is
   the safest-we avoid a staff without the skill to do what we need whom
   instead craft a plan to do what they already know.  In addition to this
   initiative, we are participating in the University of Texas Business
   School program where a team of graduate students will essentially parallel
   the work of our outside consultants, giving us a double check on the
   data. 

    

   The goal here is to have a marketing and sales plan in place for execution
   on January 1.  From where I sit, the biggest challenge we have is that too
   many people have never heard of us.  At a meeting I can encounter someone
   who has subscribed for years and next to him is a person in the same
   industry that has never heard of us.  It is difficult selling to people
   who have never heard of us.  So our challenge-before trying to sell to
   them-is to increase awareness of who we are.  This is called branding and
   it's different from selling.  It is the precursor.  We will start with
   branding in January. That means there will be marketing people around
   asking many questions in the coming months, frequently the same ones.
   Please work with all of them.  In the end, we will have a plan with a high
   likelihood of success.

    

   Parallel to all of this, the executives (without Don, Steve Feldhaus or
   myself-the board members) are going through a planning process of their
   own, coordinated by Frank Ginac.  Not being on it (and not wanting to be
   informed of what is going on as there should be yet another set of eyes on
   things other than mine) I can't tell you what they are doing.  However,
   the deal we have on this is that as CEO, I will proceed with implementing
   my own plans that I've outlined here, and will consider their proposals
   when I see them. If the decision point is past when they make their
   recommendation on a subject, the recommendation will not be considered. 
   If they come in with recommendations before decision points, their
   recommendations will be taken very seriously.  This allows the company to
   move forward and an alternative planning model to be brought on line when
   it is ready.

    

   The company has become too large and complex for any one person to know
   what is going on.  I am moving (with difficulty) from the role of an early
   entrepreneur, knowing everything going on and getting involved in it, to
   the CEO of a company at the inflexion point.   The inflexion point is the
   point all companies dream of and few achieve-when they start really taking
   off.  This is a great point and a dangerous one.  Unless the company
   changes the way it does things, inflexion aborts.  I am trying to change
   what I do.

    

   There are some things that have to remain my responsibility.  Building
   Intelligence and publishing and particularly training new staff are things
   that I should oversee.  Building the intelligence capabilities of the
   company along with Meredith is also my responsibility.  Creating new
   models to support Stratcap and helping to train Stratcap in the
   capabilities of Stratfor is mine. Overseeing our training of the Marine
   Corps is something I want to do.  Kendra will be my deputy for this, but
   this leaves a large load on me.

    

   Along with this, for better or worse, I am the public face of Stratfor. 
   My speeches and travels build the brand, create intelligence
   opportunities, and give me a clearer vision of how the world works.  I
   will be doing a lot of traveling to do these things, and I will combine
   them with the Geopolitical Journeys concept that seems to have hit a
   nerve.  During my travels I will be doing articles, videos and writing a
   book based on those journeys, on the world's borderlands.  Between that
   and making contacts for Stratfor and StratCap, I will be busy.

    

   Along with that load is going to be setting the broad direction of the
   company.  Through long and sometimes painful experience I have learned
   that ultimate responsibility can be delegated but not abandoned.  It's an
   old military principle that applies here. I have a vision for Stratfor and
   while I will delegate, I will not turn over responsibility because I
   can't.

    

   That means that we will need an evolving management structure.  I've asked
   Don who is formally President of Stratfor to join Darryl in both the day
   to day management of the company and in what we still call \"the business
   side.\"  One day we will simply be one company, but right now we are still
   two sides of one company.  Don and Darryl will now manage that side,
   implementing our plans there.  I will not disappear, but become
   intermittent on daily management but deeply focused on intelligence.

    

   One of the other things I must do is prepare a succession plan.  In some
   parts that are well developed, I already have that plan.  In other parts,
   we have to build an organization to have a succession plan.  But it is my
   intention that Stratfor survive me (no, I'm not feeling poorly and can
   still kick your ass).  I want to build this into the world's finest
   intelligence service, private and free to speak its mind.  I see this as
   the most lasting contribution I can make, and I am serious about making
   sure Stratfor goes on.

    

   We are all at the inflexion point where the level of effort temporarily
   soars until new resources are brought on line.  They couldn't have been
   staged in earlier because there weren't resources available.  But now they
   can't wait, because the moment will pass and perhaps never return.  For
   everything there is a \"now.\"  This is now.

    

   I ask only one specific thing of all of you. If you don't understanding
   anything here; if you want to learn more; if something worries you and
   your boss can't clear it up, come directly to me. I will be available
   until the last week of September when I go with others to Turkey.  Please,
   please, please, do not engage in a round of paranoia or speculation based
   on lack of data.  Just set a time to see me and let's discuss it. 
   StratFantasy (a new term) is I really believe the greatest danger to
   success that we have face.

    

   This is a long review, but many have said they'd like to know where we are
   and what we are doing.  This is about as comprehensive as I can get. There
   will be more such reports.  There are no short versions about where we are
   and what we are doing.

    

    

   OH YES-THIS IS FOR INTERNAL STRATFOR USE ONLY. DO NOT SHARE THIS DOCUMENT
   OR DISCUSS IT OUTSIDE OF STRATFOR.

    

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   STRATFOR

   221 West 6th Street

   Suite 400

   Austin, Texas 78701

    

   Phone: 512-744-4319

   Fax: 512-744-4334

    
","2011-09-05 21:55:16",1,"2012-02-27 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/49613_labor-day-review-of-where-we-are-.html","gfriedman@stratfor.com","mailto:stratforaustin@stratfor.com","allstratfor@stratfor.com",""
51091,"Anonymous vs. Zetas Amid Mexico's Cartel Violence
","    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Anonymous vs. Zetas Amid Mexico's Cartel Violence                          
                                                                              
    November 2, 2011                                                          
                                                                              
    Readers Comment on STRATFOR Reports                                       
                                                                              
    By Scott Stewart                                                          
                                                                              
    The online activist collective Anonymous posted a message on the          
    Internet on Oct. 31 saying it would continue its campaign against         
    Mexican criminal cartels and their government supporters despite the      
    risks.                                                                    
                                                                              
    The message urged inexperienced activists, who might not be practicing    
    proper online security measures, to abstain from participating. It also   
    urged individuals associated with Anonymous in Mexico not to conduct      
    physical pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy    
    Fawkes masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their Internet or              
    physical-world activities. Guy Fawkes was a British Roman Catholic        
    conspirator involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament on Nov. 5,  
    1605. The British celebrate the plot's failure as Guy Fawkes Day each     
    Nov. 5. In modern times, the day has come to have special meaning for     
    anarchists. Since 2006, the style of the Guy Fawkes mask used in the      
    movie \"V for Vendetta\" has become something of an anarchist icon in the   
    United Kingdom and elsewhere.                                             
                                                                              
    Related Video                                                             
      * [IMG] Dispatch: Anonymous' Online Tactics Against Mexican Cartels     
                                                                              
    It was no coincidence, then, that in an Oct. 6 video Anonymous activists  
    set Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release an Anonymous          
    associate allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz. The associate reportedly was   
    abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign called \"Operation           
    Paperstorm.\"                                                              
                                                                              
    The Oct. 31 message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,    
    dubbed \"Operation Cartel,\" would be dangerous. It noted that some         
    members of the collective would form a group of trusted associates to     
    participate in a special task force to execute the operation. It asked    
    supporters to pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to the      
    Operation Cartel task force for publication on the Internet via a         
    software tool developed by Anonymous that permits the anonymous passing   
    of information.                                                           
                                                                              
    When discussing Anonymous, it is important to remember that Anonymous is  
    not a hierarchical organization, but rather a collective of activists.    
    Individuals who choose to associate themselves with the collective        
    frequently disagree over issues addressed by the collective and are free  
    to choose which actions to support and/or participate in.                 
                                                                              
    With Nov. 5 approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not      
    backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be        
    useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous  
    and Los Zetas and to address some of its potential implications.          
                                                                              
     Context                                                                  
                                                                              
    The Mexican port city of Veracruz has been the epicenter of this event.   
    Veracruz has been a busy place over the past few months in terms of       
    Mexico's cartel wars. The port serves as a critical transportation hub    
    for Los Zetas narcotics smuggling. Because of this, STRATFOR has          
    identified Veracruz as a bellwether for determining Los Zetas'            
    trajectory in the coming months.                                          
                                                                              
    In a major recent development in Veracruz, the Sinaloa cartel began an    
    offensive into the Zetas stronghold using the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva     
    Generacion (CJNG), which, under the name \"Matazetas\" (Spanish for \"Zeta   
    killers\"), conducted high-profile body dumps of more than 50 alleged      
    low-level Zetas operatives on Sept. 20 and Sept. 22. On Oct. 25, Mexican  
    marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, also known as \"El Bam     
    Bam,\" who was the Zetas' plaza boss in Veracruz. The Zetas in Veracruz    
    thus are feeling pressure from both the Mexican government and the CJNG.  
                                                                              
    The Anonymous Internet collective entered this dynamic in August with     
    its activities in Veracruz. It is common knowledge that members of        
    local, state and federal governments in Mexico support various cartel     
    groups. In the state of Veracruz, it is generally believed that some      
    members of the state government support Los Zetas, the dominant cartel    
    there. In response to this corruption, some who have associated           
    themselves with Anonymous launched Operation Paperstorm. These activists  
    distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz denouncing the state government  
    for supporting Los Zetas. They conducted leaflet distributions Aug. 13,   
    Aug. 20 and Aug. 29. They also released videos on the Internet on Aug.    
    26 and Aug. 29 condemning the Veracruz state government.                  
                                                                              
    Activities outside Veracruz also played a part in setting the stage. On   
    Sept. 13, the bodies of two people who had been tortured and killed were  
    hung from a pedestrian overpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state. Signs  
    left with the bodies said Los Zetas had killed the pair because they had  
    posted information pertaining to the Zetas on blogs that specialize in    
    reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept. 26, the decapitated body of    
    Marisol Macias Castaneda was found in a park in Nuevo Laredo. Macias,     
    who worked for a local newspaper, allegedly posted on cartel blogs using  
    the nickname \"Laredo Girl.\" A message found with her body said the Zetas  
    killed her due to her online activities.                                  
                                                                              
    Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for  
    a distributed denial of service attack against the official website of    
    the state of Veracruz. Although her murder occurred outside of the        
    state, Anonymous said its attack on the Veracruz website was in response  
    to Laredo Girl's death. This indicates that activists understand that     
    Los Zetas are active in both areas and suggests that Veracruz             
    state-based activists are driving the Anonymous campaign against Los      
    Zetas.                                                                    
                                                                              
    Significantly, some individuals associated with Anonymous already were    
    unhappy with the state of Veracruz over its decision to prosecute two     
    individuals who had posted kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug. 25 that  
    proved false. According to the reports, a group of children had been      
    abducted from a Veracruz school. The inaccurate reports allegedly caused  
    some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed to the       
    school to check on their children. The so-called Twitter terrorists       
    initially were charged with offenses that could have carried a 30-year    
    sentence. Some associated with Anonymous, which has absolute freedom of   
    speech on the Internet as one of its foundational principles, took        
    umbrage at the prospect of such stiff penalties - especially given the    
    stark contrast with the impunity enjoyed by many cartel figures in        
    Mexico.                                                                   
                                                                              
    STRATFOR began to focus on the story following the Oct. 6 release of the  
    video in which Anonymous activists threatened to release information      
    about individuals cooperating with Los Zetas if the Zetas did not         
    release the Anonymous activist kidnapped during Operation Paperstorm. In  
    light of the approaching Nov. 5 deadline, we published an analysis of     
    the topic on Oct. 28; the topic subsequently received a great deal of     
    media coverage.                                                           
                                                                              
    This publicity has generated a very interesting response from Anonymous   
    that emphasizes that it is a collective, not an organization. Some        
    Anonymous activists began to back off the issue, erasing online user      
    accounts formerly associated with the campaign, suggesting the operation  
    against Los Zetas had been a hoax and claiming that no activist had been  
    kidnapped. Other activists suggested that the campaign was dangerous,     
    ill-advised and should be suspended. Still other activists became more    
    strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign          
    continue. As noted, Anonymous' collective nature means activists can      
    select the actions they participate in, including Operation Cartel. It    
    would only take one dedicated individual to continue the operation.       
                                                                              
    The will to continue was manifested Oct. 29 with the hacking of the       
    personal website of Gustavo Rosario Torres, the former attorney general   
    of the Mexican state of Tabasco. The site was defaced with a message      
    from Anonymous Mexico stating that Rosario is a Zeta. Rosario has long    
    been accused in the Mexican and international media of protecting Los     
    Zetas, and videos long have circulated on YouTube making the same         
    charge. The hacking of his website thus did not provide any startling     
    revelation; Anonymous will have to uncover and publish original and       
    timely information if it hopes to do much damage to Los Zetas.            
                                                                              
    The determination by some activists to continue the operation against     
    Los Zetas also was reflected in the tone of the Oct. 31 message. Some     
    activists associated with Anonymous clearly feel compelled to continue    
    with the campaign over what they have characterized as an outpouring of   
    public support in the wake of the media coverage. According to their      
    Oct. 31 video statement:                                                  
                                                                              
      \"We received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the  
      voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the   
      side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in    
      critical moments like the one they currently live in.\"                  
                                                                              
    We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the   
    campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.                    
                                                                              
     Blowback                                                                 
                                                                              
    Mexico's various cartels long have used the Internet to trumpet their     
    triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even degrade their enemies.  
    The cartels have posted videos of the torture, execution and desecration  
    of the corpses of rivals. They also frequently monitor narcoblogs and     
    sometimes even post on them. As demonstrated by the September blogger     
    killings in Nuevo Laredo, Los Zetas appear to possess at least some       
    rudimentary capability to trace online activity to people in the          
    physical world. They are known to employ their own team of dedicated      
    cyber experts and to have sources within the Mexican government.          
                                                                              
    In addition to technical intelligence, the Zetas can use old-fashioned    
    human intelligence to track down their online enemies. People sometimes   
    discuss their online identities with family and friends, and such         
    information can be overheard and passed to Los Zetas in return for        
    money. This danger was recognized in the Oct. 31 video from Anonymous     
    that urges participants in their campaign not to discuss their            
    activities with anyone.                                                   
                                                                              
    In past Anonymous actions, like the December 2010 attack against PayPal   
    after the WikiLeaks scandal broke, the U.S. and British governments       
    arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly     
    participated in the attacks. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of      
    activists associated with Anonymous actions conducted against the         
    Turkish government in response to its plan to establish a national        
    Internet-filtering system. This indicates that some activists associated  
    with Anonymous are not nearly as anonymous as they would like to be.      
    Every action on the Internet leaves some sort of trail, making it very    
    difficult to be truly anonymous.                                          
                                                                              
    Like other Mexican cartels, Los Zetas do not take affronts lightly. Even  
    if Anonymous cannot provide information that damages Los Zetas smuggling  
    operations, the very fact that the collective has decided publicly to     
    challenge Los Zetas will result in some sort of response. The big         
    question is whether the Zetas possess the capability to trace the         
    organizers of the Anonymous action?                                       
                                                                              
    One challenge with tracking an entity such as Anonymous is that it is     
    intentionally amorphous. It is also as transnational as the Internet,     
    and it would be unsurprising if many of those chosen to participate in    
    the operation against Los Zetas are located in the United Sates, Europe   
    and other areas that are outside the Zetas' immediate reach.              
                                                                              
    The amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way, however.    
    If Los Zetas abduct and execute random patrons at an Internet cafe,       
    behead them and place Guy Fawkes masks on their heads, it will be very    
    difficult to prove that they were not associated with Anonymous. Los      
    Zetas also could execute random people and claim they had provided        
    Anonymous with information in order to intimidate people from actually    
    cooperating with Anonymous. As Anonymous noted in its Oct. 31 video,      
    this is dangerous business indeed.                                        
                                                                              
     The Big Picture                                                          
                                                                              
    How the Mexican public reacts to the Anonymous operation must be          
    watched. The criminal cartels and their violence have deeply affected     
    many people in Mexico's middle and upper classes. STRATFOR talks to many  
    people in Mexico who fear that they or a family member will be            
    kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like Ciudad Juarez,     
    Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen find themselves in a         
    terrible bind. They face ever-increasing extortion demands from the       
    cartels while their business revenues dwindle because the violence        
    associated with those same cartels has frightened people into not going   
    out. This is forcing many small businesses to close. It also is creating  
    a great deal of frustration and resentment.                               
                                                                              
    At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries   
    in the world for journalists, and many media organizations practice       
    heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the           
    September blogger killings, some of the narcoblogs, like Blog del Narco,  
    have exhibited strong signs of self-censorship inspired by fear. As a     
    result, many Mexicans believe the mainstream media are not of any real    
    assistance in the face of cartel violence.                                
                                                                              
    Mexican citizens also are frustrated with their government, which, as     
    noted, is well-known for corruption. This sentiment is feeding            
    Anonymous' original campaign in Veracruz. This frustration even has led   
    some people to begin discussing the creation of vigilante groups to       
    fight the cartels - though this has been attempted before in Mexico. As   
    we saw in the case of La Familia Michoacana, which began as such a        
    vigilante group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.                
                                                                              
    This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely  
    on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for         
    assistance, they may embrace Anonymous, coming to view its form of        
    cybervigilantism as an outlet for their frustration. If Anonymous is      
    perceived as a safe way to pass information pertaining to cartel          
    activities, we may see people from all over the country begin to share    
    intelligence. Such human intelligence could very well prove to be far     
    more damaging to the cartels than any information Anonymous activists     
    can dredge up electronically. As this operation is becoming more widely   
    publicized, the pool of people outside Mexico who might wish to           
    participate will likely grow. The number of people inside Mexico who      
    wish to provide information might grow as well.                           
                                                                              
    Anonymous has taken on many powerful entities in the past, such as major  
    transnational corporations and governments. But the repercussions from    
    participating in such operations were never as grave for online           
    activists as they are in this case. Being identified and detained by      
    Scotland Yard or the FBI is a far different situation than being          
    identified and detained by Los Zetas.                                     
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
    Not For Publication                                                       
                                                                              
    Reprinting or republication of this report on websites is authorized by   
    prominently displaying the following sentence at the beginning or end of  
    the report, including the hyperlink to STRATFOR:                          
                                                                              
    \"This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR\"                  
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
","2011-11-03 15:27:01",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/51091_anonymous-vs-zetas-amid-mexico-s-cartel-violence-.html","noreply@stratfor.com","mailto:stratforaustin@stratfor.com","allstratfor@stratfor.com",""
52058,"Spain's Economic Outlook After Elections
","    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Spain's Economic Outlook After Elections                                   
                                                                              
    November 23, 2011 | 1151 GMT                                              
    Spain's Economic Outlook After Elections                                  
    Jasper Juinen/Getty Images                                                
    Spanish Prime Minister-elect Mariano Rajoy in Madrid on Nov. 20           
    Summary                                                                   
                                                                              
    Outgoing Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero*s decision   
    to call for early general elections, held Nov. 20, allowed Spain to have  
    a smooth political transition. While the arrival of a new government in   
    Spain will be quieter than in other members of the eurozone, such as      
    Italy and Greece, the new government of Mariano Rajoy has immediate       
    challenges - among them high private debt, a fragile banking system and   
    growing unemployment - that threaten the new administration.              
                                                                              
    Analysis                                                                  
                                                                              
    On Nov. 20, the Popular Party won a landslide victory in Spain*s general  
    elections. Outgoing Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero   
    called for the elections in April, seeking to put an early end to a       
    government that had failed to find answers to the economic crisis.        
    Zapatero wanted a new administration - preferably run by his Socialist    
    Workers* Party (PSOE) - to assume control. Instead, the Popular Party,    
    led by Mariano Rajoy, obtained 186 seats in the 350-seat Spanish          
    parliament, giving the new administration's party an absolute majority.   
    The \"indignants* protest movement's influence seemed limited, although    
    it possibly hurt the PSOE, led by Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba. While the      
    PSOE secured only 110 seats in its worst performance in more than 30      
    years, other minor, anti-austerity left-wing parties performed better     
    than was expected (the United Left, for example, won 11 seats).           
                                                                              
    Although the PSOE failed to stay in power, Spain managed a smooth         
    electoral transition * clearly distinguishing itself from Italy and       
    Greece, the two major European countries at the center of the             
    Continent's economic crisis. In Italy, the transition was a traumatic     
    process during which former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi brought      
    weeks of uncertainty to his country (and to the international markets).   
    The outcome of this crisis was a techocratic government that now must     
    gain the support of a fragmented and contentious opposition. The          
    situation was perhaps more tense in Greece, where former Prime Minister   
    George Papandreou threatened to call for a referendum on EU austerity     
    measures before he resigned and handed power to a caretaker government.   
                                                                              
    Rajoy will not have to face elections in the near term, thanks to the     
    laws of the Spanish political system. The next general elections, as      
    well as most of the autonomous parliaments* elections, do not need to be  
    held for four years. But despite this seamless political transition,      
    Spain has serious economic troubles that will threaten the                
    sustainability of the new administration.                                 
                                                                              
     Spain's Short-Term Economic Problems                                     
                                                                              
    One of the main problems that Spain faces is its budget deficit, which    
    In 2010 stood at 9.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), the         
    third-highest figure among eurozone countries (Greece and Portugal are    
    at 10.6 percent and 9.8 percent, respectively). According to Eurostat,    
    Spain*s total general government debt reached nearly 642 million euros    
    ($867 million) in 2010. But borrowing is increasingly expensive; in       
    November, the yield for the Spanish 10-year bond hit 6.98 percent, the    
    highest level since Spain joined the eurozone. With such a large budget   
    deficit, Spain must regularly convince markets that it is in control of   
    the situation - otherwise Madrid faces immediate and severe financing     
    problems.                                                                 
                                                                              
    In an attempt to win back market confidence, the PSOE and the Popular     
    Party agreed in August to reform the country's constitution to include    
    the concept of \"budgetary stability,* which will entail a deficit cap.    
    However, the text does not specify the size of the cap, which must be     
    set by either the European Union or, in its absence, the Spanish          
    parliament. The deficit limit could also be broken during a recession or  
    a national crisis. When it comes into force in 2020, the new law will     
    affect all levels of Spanish administration, including the regional       
    governments that run health care and education.                           
                                                                              
    The debt-to-GDP ratio is also a cause for concern in Spain. According to  
    Eurostat, Spain's debt represented 36.2 percent of its GDP in 2007,       
    moved to 63.45 percent of GDP in 2010 and reached an estimated 70.25      
    percent ratio in 2011. Yet the main problem in Spain is private, not      
    public, debt. Currently, private debt stands at 212 percent of GDP.       
                                                                              
    At the same time, both the real estate crisis and exposure to Spanish     
    debt are harming the Spanish banking sector. In June, Spain's average     
    domestic non-performing loan (NPL) ratio rose to 6.7 percent from 5.5     
    percent last year, while the NPL ratio for real estate increased to 17.8  
    percent from 11.2 percent in 2010. The effects of this are not limited    
    to major players, since medium- and small-sized savings banks, known as   
    cajas, are similarly exposed to high-risk loans.                          
                                                                              
    While Spain*s two international banks, Santander and BBVA, benefit from   
    their geographic diversification - which gives them the capacity to       
    counterbalance muted domestic results - both have a significant presence  
    in Spain. More than half of BBVA's assets are in Spain, while Santander   
    has around 30 percent of its assets there.                                
                                                                              
    Sovereign exposure of the major Spanish banks, while less than that seen  
    in other eurozone countries, is concentrated in Spanish debt. Their       
    total exposure to government securities was 119.8 billion euros at the    
    end of 2010, representing around 7 percent of the banks' total assets.    
    Sovereign exposure to other peripheral countries is limited.              
                                                                              
     Unemployment and Demography                                              
                                                                              
    While Zapatero pushed through austerity measures intended to cut the      
    deficit to 6 percent of GDP in 2011, the Spanish government later         
    admitted that those goals would not be met. During the campaign, Rajoy    
    vowed to make cuts \"everywhere\" except for pensions in order to meet      
    Spain's target of cutting the public deficit to 4.4 percent of GDP in     
    2012.                                                                     
                                                                              
    The problem is that austerity measures affect a population already        
    suffering from very high unemployment. Currently, Spain's unemployment    
    rate is 20.7 percent, the highest rate in the eurozone. The situation is  
    particularly serious among those aged 15 to 24; youth unemployment in     
    Spain moved from 24.6 percent in 2008 to 45 percent in the second         
    quarter of 2011. As those rates show, Spanish youths are having a harder  
    time finding jobs than are their eurozone counterparts.                   
                                                                              
    Demography is also an increasing source of worry in Spain. According to   
    official statistics, Spain's population of about 46.7 million will        
    decline by up to half a million within a decade. Spain is an aging        
    country. Most of its population is older than 35 and the declining        
    growth rate is expected to stand at 0.9 percent by 2015 and 0.5 percent   
    by 2025. Emigration is also a factor in this decline in growth - the      
    economic crisis is expected to push nearly 600,000 people to leave Spain  
    this year. As the young tend to be consumers and the old tend to be       
    savers, Spain has only a few years to generate consumption-led economic   
    growth.                                                                   
                                                                              
    Despite the bleak outlook, Spain is better prepared than most European    
    countries to reverse this situation. To some extent, Spain has been more  
    efficient in incorporating foreigners, especially from Latin America,     
    into its economy. Between 2000 and 2005, immigration grew 304 percent in  
    Spain, and by 2007 around 1.8 million Latin Americans were living in      
    Spain. Because of cultural and linguistic similarities, most of those     
    new inhabitants have been effortlessly incorporated into the economy.     
                                                                              
    Due to the size of its economy and of its debt, the consequences of an    
    eventual Spanish collapse might not be as serious for the eurozone as     
    would the fallout from an eventual collapse of Italy. However, the        
    smooth transition in Spain and the apparent lack of serious political     
    conflicts in the near future doesn*t mean that the Iberian country is     
    free from immediate economic challenges.                                  
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
    Not For Publication                                                       
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
","2011-11-23 13:19:48",1,"2012-04-01 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/52058_spain-s-economic-outlook-after-elections-.html","noreply@stratfor.com","mailto:stratforaustin@stratfor.com","allstratfor@stratfor.com",""
52179,"Dispatch: Mainland China's \"Occupy Wall Street\" Reaction
","    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Dispatch: Mainland China's \"Occupy Wall Street\" Reaction                   
                                                                              
    October 19, 2011 | 2044 GMT                                               
    Click on image below to watch video:                                      
    [IMG]                                                                     
                                                                              
    China Director Jennifer Richmond explains why the \"Occupy Wall Street\"    
    movement failed to gain traction in mainland China.                       
                                                                              
       Editor*s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition      
       technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete        
       accuracy.                                                              
                                                                              
    Related Links                                                             
      * China Political Memo: Wenzhou Backs Away from the `Wenzhou Model'     
      * The Effects of Chinese Economic Development on Illicit Trade          
      * China Political Memo: Governmental Reforms for Economic Problems?     
                                                                              
    The \"Occupy Wall Street\" movement has gone global and there have even     
    been attempts to capitalize on this movement in various Chinese cities.   
    The \"Occupy China\" movement, however, has failed to gain traction on the  
    mainland.                                                                 
                                                                              
    We really didn't expect to see this movement transfer to mainland China;  
    however, given the Jasmine protests earlier this year, there were many    
    who were waiting to see whether or not this movement could be             
    rejuvenated by the global call to action. The global Occupy movement      
    lacks a nucleus or leadership. Despite a common theme of corporate        
    greed, there is very little direction on how to proceed and, under these  
    circumstances, we have seen no contagion effect in mainland China.        
                                                                              
    However, the Tiananmen protests in 1989 also started with very little     
    leadership or direction, and many Chinese activists that I've spoken      
    with feel that all that is needed is a spark to ignite a fire. After      
    all, there are plenty of protests localized daily in China, revolving     
    around issues such as land grabs, the environment and even corruption.    
                                                                              
    The Jasmine Movement provided a spark for organized action in China;      
    however, it quickly fizzled under an aggressive government response. The  
    Occupy China movement hasn't even gotten that far. While it is not        
    unforeseeable for a small movement to gain momentum in China, the         
    problem with both the Jasmine and the Occupy movements are that neither   
    were home-grown.                                                          
                                                                              
    Although the Jasmine movement was spearheaded by Chinese, it was done so  
    from overseas. The Occupy movement had supporters and organizers within   
    China, but the concept was foreign-generated.                             
                                                                              
    Moreover, the Chinese government and media has actually acknowledged the  
    Occupy movement in the U.S. and in the EU, taking the opportunity to      
    point out the failures of Wall Street and capitalism, while at the same   
    time, censoring any indication of an Occupy China movement. Also, many    
    Chinese do not have access to the social Internet sites that have helped  
    to ignite these movements in Western countries, namely Facebook. And      
    those that do, find this information quickly scrubbed off of similar      
    Chinese sites.                                                            
                                                                              
    Ultimately, the Chinese, even those that want change, are wary of         
    foreign influences. Anything emanating from outside of the state will be  
    used by the state to highlight foreign interference. That said the        
    domestic wealth gap and its ensuing tensions could generate a homegrown   
    movement that would threaten Beijing much more so than any Occupy Wall    
    Street movement could muster.                                             
                                                                              
    Click for more videos                                                     
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
    Not For Publication                                                       
                                                                              
    This report may be forwarded or republished on your website with          
    attribution to www.stratfor.com                                           
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
","2011-10-19 22:54:05",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/52179_dispatch-mainland-china-s-occupy-wall-street-reaction-.html","noreply@stratfor.com","mailto:stratforaustin@stratfor.com","allstratfor@stratfor.com",""
52322,"[Social] REPORT - Many Occupy Wall Street protesters live in luxury
","   Quick jump on the bandwagon!  It's not cool unless you're protesting...or
   a hipster....or angry for some reason that may have nothing to do with how
   much you make....by the way South Park is mocking Occupy Wall Street
   tonight on Comedy Central
   http://news.yahoo.com/nyc-arrest-records-many-occupy-wall-street-protesters-045625415.html

     NYC arrest records: Many Occupy Wall Street protesters live in luxury

   Many *Occupy Wall Street* protesters arrested in New York City*occupy*
   more luxurious homes than their *99 percent* rhetoric might suggest,
   a Daily Caller investigation has found.

   For each of the 984 Occupy Wall Street protesters arrested in New York
   City between September 18 and October 15, police collected and filed an
   information sheet recording the arrestee*s name, age, sex, criminal
   charge, home address and * in most cases * race. The Daily Caller has
   obtained all of this information from a source in the New York City
   government.

   Among addresses for which information is available, single-family homes
   listed on those police intake forms have a median value of $305,000 * a
   far higher number than the $185,400 median value of owner-occupied housing
   units in the United States.

   Some of the homes where *Occupy* arrestees reside, viewed through Google
   Maps and the Multiple Listing Service real estate database, are the
   definition of opulence.

   Using county assessors and online resources such as Zillow.com, TheDC
   estimated property values and rents for 87 percent of the homes and 59
   percent of the apartments listed in the arrest records.

   Even in the nation*s currently depressed housing market, at least 95 of
   the protesters* residences are worth approximately $500,000 or
   more. (RELATED SLIDESHOW: Opulent homes of the *99 percent*)

   The median monthly rent for those living in apartments whose information
   is readily available is $1,850.

   Of the 984 protesters arrested, at least 797 are white. The median age of
   *Occupy* protesters taken into custody is 27 years.

   Ten demonstrators were arrested more than once. Most of the arrests, it
   should be noted, were for nonviolent offenses.

   The arrest intake documents show that arrestees came to New York from all
   over the country but particularly from the Northeast.

   Criminal charges ranged from *loitering while wearing a mask* and *failure
   to move along* to *violent behavior* and other more serious charges such
   as *assault 2 [second-degree assault] caus[ing] physical injury to police
   [or] firemen.* There was also one charge of *sex abuse 3 [third-degree].*
   Hundreds were arrested on October 1 for obstructing traffic on the
   Brooklyn Bridge.

   While it would not be fair to conclude that the arrested protesters are
   fully representative of a movement that is not completely understood, this
   information forms the most complete snapshot yet of the demonstrations*
   more militant participants.

   It also reinforces the persistent critique of protesters as entitled,
   upper-class agitators with few legitimate grievances.

   London*s Daily Mail newspaper, for example, recently highlighted signs of
   wealth among the throngs in Zuccotti Park.

   *Sleeping beside the hardcore activists are increasing numbers of wealthy
   students turning up to make the most of the party atmosphere, drugs and
   free food,* reporters Paul Bentley and Micela McLucas wrote in October.
   *While they dress down to blend in, the youngsters* privileged backgrounds
   are revealed by glimpses of expensive gadgetry or the absent minded
   mention of their private schools during heated political debates.*

   *I think that it*s accurate to say that our supporters come from all
   backgrounds,* Patrick Bruner, the operator of OccupyWallStreet.org, a
   website dedicated to help organize and spread information about the
   protests, told TheDC when asked about participants from wealthier
   backgrounds. *That said, a (non-random) survey on our site revealed that
   our visitors literally are the 99% in regards to economic realities.*

   The national median home value of $185,400 reflects U.S. Census statistics
   from the years 2005 through 2009, the last year data were available.

   TheDC was able to estimate home values and apartment rents for 659 of the
   972 residences. Thirteen were in university dormitories; six were post
   office boxes; four were addresses in foreign countries. Many addresses
   proved to be nonexistent, and a few were not provided to police.

   TheDC has elected not to publish personally identifying information.

   BENJAMIN SLEDGE
   Senior Graphic Designer
   STRATFOR
   221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
   (ph) +1 512.744.4320 | (fx) +1 512.744 4105
   www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-02 16:09:00",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/52322_-social-report-many-occupy-wall-street-protesters-live-in.html","ben.sledge@stratfor.com","mailto:social@stratfor.com","social@stratfor.com",""
52429,"Re: [Social] REPORT - Many Occupy Wall Street protesters live in
	luxury
","   To clarify the point more
   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCVHpnixj88
   --
   BENJAMIN SLEDGE
   Senior Graphic Designer
   STRATFOR
   221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
   (ph) +1 512.744.4320 | (fx) +1 512.744 4105
   www.STRATFOR.com
   On Nov 2, 2011, at 10:09 AM, Ben Sledge wrote:

     Quick jump on the bandwagon!  It's not cool unless you're
     protesting...or a hipster....or angry for some reason that may have
     nothing to do with how much you make....by the way South Park is mocking
     Occupy Wall Street tonight on Comedy Central
     http://news.yahoo.com/nyc-arrest-records-many-occupy-wall-street-protesters-045625415.html

     NYC arrest records: Many Occupy Wall Street protesters live in luxury

     Many *Occupy Wall Street* protesters arrested in New York City*occupy*
     more luxurious homes than their *99 percent* rhetoric might suggest,
     a Daily Caller investigation has found.

     For each of the 984 Occupy Wall Street protesters arrested in New York
     City between September 18 and October 15, police collected and filed an
     information sheet recording the arrestee*s name, age, sex, criminal
     charge, home address and * in most cases * race. The Daily Caller has
     obtained all of this information from a source in the New York City
     government.

     Among addresses for which information is available, single-family homes
     listed on those police intake forms have a median value of $305,000 * a
     far higher number than the $185,400 median value of owner-occupied
     housing units in the United States.

     Some of the homes where *Occupy* arrestees reside, viewed through Google
     Maps and the Multiple Listing Service real estate database, are the
     definition of opulence.

     Using county assessors and online resources such as Zillow.com, TheDC
     estimated property values and rents for 87 percent of the homes and 59
     percent of the apartments listed in the arrest records.

     Even in the nation*s currently depressed housing market, at least 95 of
     the protesters* residences are worth approximately $500,000 or
     more. (RELATED SLIDESHOW: Opulent homes of the *99 percent*)

     The median monthly rent for those living in apartments whose information
     is readily available is $1,850.

     Of the 984 protesters arrested, at least 797 are white. The median age
     of *Occupy* protesters taken into custody is 27 years.

     Ten demonstrators were arrested more than once. Most of the arrests, it
     should be noted, were for nonviolent offenses.

     The arrest intake documents show that arrestees came to New York from
     all over the country but particularly from the Northeast.

     Criminal charges ranged from *loitering while wearing a mask* and
     *failure to move along* to *violent behavior* and other more serious
     charges such as *assault 2 [second-degree assault] caus[ing] physical
     injury to police [or] firemen.* There was also one charge of *sex abuse
     3 [third-degree].* Hundreds were arrested on October 1 for obstructing
     traffic on the Brooklyn Bridge.

     While it would not be fair to conclude that the arrested protesters are
     fully representative of a movement that is not completely understood,
     this information forms the most complete snapshot yet of the
     demonstrations* more militant participants.

     It also reinforces the persistent critique of protesters as entitled,
     upper-class agitators with few legitimate grievances.

     London*s Daily Mail newspaper, for example, recently highlighted signs
     of wealth among the throngs in Zuccotti Park.

     *Sleeping beside the hardcore activists are increasing numbers of
     wealthy students turning up to make the most of the party atmosphere,
     drugs and free food,* reporters Paul Bentley and Micela McLucas wrote in
     October. *While they dress down to blend in, the youngsters* privileged
     backgrounds are revealed by glimpses of expensive gadgetry or the absent
     minded mention of their private schools during heated political
     debates.*

     *I think that it*s accurate to say that our supporters come from all
     backgrounds,* Patrick Bruner, the operator of OccupyWallStreet.org, a
     website dedicated to help organize and spread information about the
     protests, told TheDC when asked about participants from wealthier
     backgrounds. *That said, a (non-random) survey on our site revealed that
     our visitors literally are the 99% in regards to economic realities.*

     The national median home value of $185,400 reflects U.S. Census
     statistics from the years 2005 through 2009, the last year data were
     available.

     TheDC was able to estimate home values and apartment rents for 659 of
     the 972 residences. Thirteen were in university dormitories; six were
     post office boxes; four were addresses in foreign countries. Many
     addresses proved to be nonexistent, and a few were not provided to
     police.

     TheDC has elected not to publish personally identifying information.

     BENJAMIN SLEDGE
     Senior Graphic Designer
     STRATFOR
     221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
     (ph) +1 512.744.4320 | (fx) +1 512.744 4105
     www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-02 16:10:12",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/52429_re-social-report-many-occupy-wall-street-protesters-live-in.html","ben.sledge@stratfor.com","mailto:social@stratfor.com","social@stratfor.com",""
59630,"Re: PETER - please read
","   But it's not his call!!
   All the passion and creativity that was going into this has been
   effectively snuffed out by the tyrant.
   I understand if you're done with the idea, but this is not peters domain
   and he doesn't know crap about marketing. 
   I'm going to inform Grant and George of Peter's \"opinion\" and see what
   they have to say. 

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Jun 5, 2010, at 6:52 PM, Marko Papic <marko.papic@stratfor.com> wrote:

     Ok it is dead. Youre the boss and you feel strongly about it.

     On Jun 5, 2010, at 5:43 PM, Peter Zeihan <zeihan@stratfor.com> wrote:

       look - i apologize if i came across as snippy

       i've actually had a reeeeally good couple of days and i only tell you
       that because i think this is a reeeeally bad idea in its current form
       with a lot of downsides that you've not thought through

       you two are eager and creative. if anyone can make this work its you
       two. but dear god this scares the bejezzus out of me and i will do
       everything i can to kill it until it doesn't

       Reva Bhalla wrote:

         No one was trying to go over your head. We came up with the idea on
         Friday and you were not available. This is a marketing campaign, so
         naturally we pitched it to Grant first. I see no wrong in that.
         Rather than dismissing you in 2-line emails, Marko and I have been
         trying to address your concerns by explaining to you how this is a
         marketing campaign designed to feed into a global frenzy, highlight
         our methodology and drive readers to the site through well thought
         out world cup analogies. As I said, Marko and I are drafting up an
         intro email to explain the geopolitical thrust behind this campaign
         to George, Grant and yourself. We are putting effort into this
         precisely to address your concerns and because this is an idea we
         really believe in. I do not appreciate you cursing at us and
         dismissing us outright when we are trying to explain the marketing
         logic behind this.  

         Sent from my iPhone
         On Jun 5, 2010, at 3:19 PM, Peter Zeihan <zeihan@stratfor.com>
         wrote:

           ok ms snark

           you didn't run this by me before going over my head or testing it
           out on others -- not smart

           you haven't responded a whit to my basic concerns, choosing
           instead to ply me with arguments that can all be summed as up as
           rubbing it in my face that you hadn't run it by me -- also not
           smart

           if you want to seriously pitch this, you need to address my
           concern first -- not last

           until you do that, this is dead

           Reva Bhalla wrote:

             Thank you for responding to us in a professional manner on a
             marketing idea that has the support of the CEO and the marketing
             director. 

             Sent from my iPhone
             On Jun 5, 2010, at 2:45 PM, Peter Zeihan <zeihan@stratfor.com>
             wrote:

               i really don't know how else to say no, aside from maybe 'no
               fucking way'

               no fucking way

               Reva Bhalla wrote:

                 It's an analogy, Peter. Also, this is a marketing campaign,
                 emphasis on marketing -- not an analytical feature. The
                 question of whether this attracts more people to stratfor or
                 drives them away should come from Grant's judgment. Aaric
                 used to put out the most ridiculous campaigns, completely
                 devoid of analytical value. We are introducing an
                 intelligent and witty marketing campaign that highlights the
                 core of our geopolitical method. I would really urge you to
                 not close your mind to this and understand this is about
                 marketing. I've run this by ppl completely disinterested in
                 soccer abd they were completely captivated. My brother, a
                 marketing guru, also agrees this is a great way to bring
                 attention to stratfor.
                 Marko and I will be drafting up an intro to the WC series
                 that will explain the geopol thrust behind this campaign to
                 show to George, Grant and yourself.

                 Sent from my iPhone
                 On Jun 5, 2010, at 2:20 PM, Peter Zeihan
                 <zeihan@stratfor.com> wrote:

                   i couldn't possibly disagree more, and lines like what
                   i've copied from your texts below do a lot more than
                   simply set my teeth on edge

                   Similarly, Argentina's team this year is bursting with
                   offensive firepower with Lionel Massi, Diego Militio and
                   Carlos Tevez on the field. Yet, while Argentina holds all
                   the cards going into this World Cup,  the biggest question
                   looking forward is the whether the dubious leadership of
                   soccer legend Diego Maradona can lead the team to victory.

                   This is a lesson that Athens can learn from its national
                   football team. Considering the lack of offensive talent
                   and flair that distinguishes its Balkan
                   neighbors, Greece has adopted an unattractive defensive
                   style that nonetheless brought them a surprising 2004
                   European Football Championship.  The question for Greece,
                   therefore, is whether it will learn from its football
                   squad that living and playing within onea**s means is a
                   recipe for success.

                   Reva Bhalla wrote:

                     the whole point is to use the world cup to highlight our
                     geopolitical methodology. The analogies between the
                     geopolitical positions of each country and the teams in
                     these match-ups works really well.  It's just a clever
                     marketing campaign that differentiates stratfor -- one
                     that has already been endorsed by both George and Grant.
                     Whether you watch soccer or not, the world cup can be
                     very geopolitically relevant. It's simply a fun and
                     creative way to attract readers to our site. I've
                     circulated a couple of our briefs around to a banking
                     source in Latin America and a DoD contact, and they both
                     went nuts over it. I seriously doubt that this would
                     'drive readers away.' It's just one highlight per week,
                     that's all. Nobody else can claim this angle.  Without
                     the actual World Cup angle, this is just a publication
                     of mini monographs and there is no tie-in to the World
                     Cup, which defeats the whole purpose of the idea.
                     On Jun 5, 2010, at 11:57 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

                       actually i'm in canada thru next wednesday (cold and
                       rainy out here)

                       and im pretty dead set against anything that touches
                       sports analysis

                       so if you want this to happen it will have to be in
                       the teeth of my utter and total opposition

                       Reva Bhalla wrote:

                         Hi Peter,
                         Hope you're back safely from Canada-land. 
                         Marko and I came up with a really great marketing
                         campaign for STRATFOR:  The Geopolitics of the World
                         Cup.  Grant loves the idea and George has also given
                         his support. I'm copying and pasting our original
                         pitch to George so you can see where we are going
                         with this. We already have drafts and ideas for most
                         countries, so this will take minimal effort from the
                         analysts side. Grant is also ready to mobilize his
                         marketing sources. We think this would be a great
                         way to drive readers to our site, and we hope you
                         agree.
                         The full email thread with George and Grant's input
                         is below. Please let us know what you think so we
                         can get rollin' with this.
                         Thanks!
                         Reva

                           On Jun 5, 2010, at 1:31 AM, George Friedman wrote:

                             Assuming we have the people and resources to
                             make this an outstansding job also take care of
                             other tasks, I think this is a great idea. Have
                             you cleared this with peter?

                             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

                             From: \"Grant Perry\" <grant.perry@stratfor.com>
                             Date: Fri, 4 Jun 2010 17:20:53 -0500 (CDT)
                             To: 'Reva Bhalla'<reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>;
                             'George Friedman'<gfriedman@stratfor.com>
                             Cc: 'Marko Papic'<marko.papic@stratfor.com>
                             Subject: RE: GEORGE -- A solid idea that
                             requires your approval
                             George,
                              
                             Therea**s not much I can add to the strong case
                             Reva makes for this series, but I do want to
                             emphasize how powerful I think it could be in
                             driving traffic, free list signups, sales and in
                             brand-building.  I like the concept because not
                             only does it leverage the tremendous interest in
                             the World Cup but does it in a way that shows
                             off our methodology more effectively than a pure
                             marketing piece can.  Ita**s opportunistic in
                             the best sense, and the content would be
                             a**on-branda** and consistent with STRATFORa**s
                             quality standards.  Moreover, the series would
                             expose STRATFOR to potentially fertile audience
                             segments that we otherwise might have trouble
                             reaching, whether ita**s young professionals
                             in Brazil, Indian entrepreneurs or European
                             bankers a** theya**re all soccer fans and
                             obsessed with the World Cup.
                              
                             I say go for it.
                              
                             Grant

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

                             From: Reva Bhalla
                             [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com] 
                             Sent: Friday, June 04, 2010 4:24 PM
                             To: George Friedman
                             Cc: Grant Perry; Marko Papic
                             Subject: GEORGE -- A solid idea that requires
                             your approval
                              
                             George,
                              
                             You are currently in Turkey, the crossroads of
                             civilization, the epicenter of geopolitics. The
                             country loves you, your face is plastered all
                             over Istanbul, the world respects STRATFOR. Life
                             is good.
                              
                             But we can make it better.
                              
                             We have a great marketing idea that will:
                              
                             a) highlight STRATFOR's geopolitical methodology
                             b) battle the perception that STRATFOR is too
                             US-centric
                             c) feed into a global frenzy to drive thousands
                             of readers to our site
                              
                             On June 11, the bulk of the world's attention is
                             going to be on the World Cup. Everyone from
                             Foreign Policy magazine to Goldman Sachs is
                             covering the event.  Marko and I have a unique,
                             salient and intelligent way for STRATFOR to give
                             its geopolitical perspective to this global
                             event.
                              
                             The idea is to pick a geopolitically-relevant
                             country every week and use the World Cup to hook
                             our readers into reading our fresh,
                             contemporary, intelligent geopolitical take.
                             This could take place on the free list, on the
                             site, whatever Grant says. 
                              
                             Take Argentina, for example:
                              
                             Argentina 

                             Argentina is endowed with wide swaths of arable
                             land, natural resources and an interconnected
                             river transport network. The country has the
                             most potential on the South American continent
                             to reach worldwide geopolitical stardom. Yet
                             decades of populist policies, military control
                             and severe economic mismanagement have the
                             country constantly flirting with economic
                             collapse (LINK). Similarly, Argentina's team
                             this year is bursting with offensive firepower
                             with Lionel Massi, Diego Militio and Carlos
                             Tevez on the field. Yet, while Argentina holds
                             all the cards going into this World Cup,  the
                             biggest question looking forward is the whether
                             the dubious leadership of soccer legend Diego
                             Maradona can lead the team to victory.
                              
                             Or, Greece
                              

                             Greece managed to parlay its geopolitical
                             importance since independence in the early 18th
                             Century to gain patronage from the U.K. and
                             the U.S, allowing the country to compete with
                             Turkey (LINK) next door. But since the end of
                             the Cold War Greece has been unable to cope with
                             its relegation into the minor league of
                             geopolitics, which in part led to the debt
                             crisis it faces today. The Greek debt crisis
                             will continue to rock the nation, with strikes
                             and political unrest (LINK) becoming the norm as
                             the state is forced to implement harsh austerity
                             measures. The message the EU has sent
                             to Greece is that it has to learn to live within
                             its means. (LINK: Monograph) This is a lesson
                             that Athens can learn from its national football
                             team. Considering the lack of offensive talent
                             and flair that distinguishes its Balkan
                             neighbors, Greece has adopted an unattractive
                             defensive style that nonetheless brought them a
                             surprising 2004 European Football Championship. 
                             The question for Greece, therefore, is whether
                             it will learn from its football squad that
                             living and playing within onea**s means is a
                             recipe for success. 
                              
                             As you can see, STRATFOR's Geopolitics of the
                             World Cup would simply consist of these briefs
                             with an accompanying graphic every week. This
                             would be a definite crowd pleaser and marketing
                             success -- I guarantee it.  We would do the
                             United States, Brazil, South Africa, Germany,
                             Portugal, South and North Korea, Japan, etc. We
                             have already been brainstorming with the
                             analysts on this, and have some great ideas to
                             go on.
                              
                             We already have pitched the idea to Grant, and
                             he is all for it. All we need is your go-ahead,
                             and we can make this happen.
                              
                             Hope your travels are going well,
                              
                             Reva
                              
                              
                              
                              
                              
                              
","2010-06-06 02:25:12",1,"2012-03-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/59630_re-peter-please-read-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","","marko.papic@stratfor.com",""
60428,"[alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA/AZ/US/VZ/RUSSIA/TAIWAN - Erdogan's
 cancer, Turkish plan for Syria and more - TR325
","   SOURCE: TR325 and his business partner
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former NSC official in Turkey, adviser to Erdogan,
   energy expert negotiator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   TR325's business partner has an old classmate friend who was the lead
   surgeon on Erdogan's most recent operation. He said that Erdogan has colon
   cancer, but they haven't seen the second biopsy results yet to see if it's
   metastasized. In the last operation, they cut out 20 cm of Erdogan's colon
   (I just looked up that the average colon is about 1.5m long.)  That's a
   really significant operation. Erdogan is not going to be able to travel
   for a while, and he's going to have to carry around with him a colonoscopy
   bag for at least 2-3 months.  The prognosis is not looking good, though.
   The surgeon said they were estimating 2 years for him.

   This is very likely going to cause major splits within the AKP.  Gul
   doesn't have much support.  Davutoglu is paranoid that everyone else is
   trying to undermine him (there's a definite competition between him and
   TR325.)  When I asked who Erdgogan trusts, two names were mentioned - Ali
   Babacan (Deputy PM) and Taner Yildiz (energy minister.)  Both sources were
   asking how the US is likely to react to this situation.  Would they try to
   back the military like the old days?  CHP is still very much divided. Both
   seemed to think the military won't be able to take advantage of the
   situation.

   On Syria - the conversation centered on how far Turkey is actually going
   to go.  TR325 explained that the Turkish plan is centered on civil war in
   Syria.  Officially, it's Turkey providing the main training,a rms and
   support to FSA. Unofficially, US and TUrkey are doing this together in
   deploying SOF for this mission.  Notice all the talk in the press now
   about civil war breaking out in Syria. This is the narrative Turkey and US
   want to build.  I pointed out that creating the conditions for civil war -
   actual neighborhood to neighborhood fighting - is still pretty difficult
   considering that the Alawite forces are still holding together, but he
   seemed to think that this can escalate within 2 months time. He also said
   without saying that they're working on making that happen. He acknowledges
   it'll be messy and it will take a lot of blood and time for a Sunni power
   to emerge in syria, but that this is the Turkish obligation.

   The Turkish plan to preempt the instability that would result from civil
   war conditions is to implement the buffer zone 5-40km into Syrian
   territory and set up refugee camps.  I asked what levers Iran and Syria
   have to get Turkey to back off in relation to PKK.  He said
   (half-jokingly) that Karilan is Turkey's man (ie. turkey can actually
   negotiate with him.)  But he said PKK third-in-command (still need to get
   this guy's name) answers to Syria and Iran. Turkey knows this very well
   and he says Syria and Iran are already making moves to threaten attacks
   via this faction.

   I'm left with a lot of questions --

   Given the instability that is likely to result within AKP over Erdogan's
   health, would Turkey really be making bold foreign policy moves, such as
   helping to create a civil war in Syria?

   Turkey appears very confident that Syria/Iran have the means to play the
   PKK card. Why risk that?

   Turkey knows they'll be dealing with a massive refugee crisis in Syria -
   why propel that situation?

   Some other points -

   TR325 believes AZ wiill be able to export 5-7bcm via ITGI for SDII. 
   Russia has its stake in Edison to keep a foothold in that route.  The rest
   he agrees is likely going to have to be shipped to Russia eventually since
   the Europeans aren't financing anything right now. He did say that SOCAR
   is flush with money right now and could actually put money down on these
   projects if they have the market demand and client base to do it.

   They were both asking me what is happening with Trinidad and Tobago. I
   told them I have no idea. They were asking because they are involved in a
   business deal to sell conventional subs to Trinidad and Tobago. They're
   assuming the US is preparing something for VZ.  They are also involved in
   similar submarine sales to Taiwan and Japan.
","2011-12-10 20:04:53",1,"2012-03-06 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/60428_-alpha-insight-turkey-syria-az-us-vz-russia-taiwan-erdogan-s.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
60476,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Bashar's Mother's Concerns
","   Unclear. Source spoke of some compromise where Bashar leaves office. But
   she is apparently worried that the situation has come to a point where she
   fears that her sons could meet a fate similar to Q and family.

   Related to this is something I heard from another source who has heard
   that the Iranians floated a deal through al-Maliki that calls for Bashar
   to step down and some compromise can be struck with the SNC/FSA because
   the latter is interested in working with the nat'l army towards the
   creation of a new system. The Iranians didn't want to propose this
   themselves so they routed it through the Iraqi pm who has a personal
   relationship with the al-Assads given his years of exile. Al-Assad will
   not trust any such initiative from the Sunni Arabs but is willing to
   listen to al-Maliki. According to this source the Americans opposed the
   plan because it allows Iran to retain influence in Syria post-Assad. I had
   a hard time believing it but I was told al-Assad was open to the
   possibility of stepping down.

   Interestingly the lady SNC member who I met earlier this evening asked me
   if I could put them in touch with the Iranians after I mentioned that Iran
   is also looking beyond al-Assad.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2011 13:34:29 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Bashar's Mother's Concerns
   okay, so back to the question that matters then. what kind of 'exit
   strategy' is Momma Assad advocating?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Saturday, December 10, 2011 1:26:49 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Bashar's Mother's Concerns

   Yes by Lisa Wedeen but that is at least a decade old.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2011 13:24:52 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Bashar's Mother's Concerns
   yes, the grandmother mediated between Rifaat and Hafiz.  His mom is also
   known to play a very prominent role. There's a book written about the
   matriarchs in the Asad family

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Saturday, December 10, 2011 1:17:10 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Bashar's Mother's Concerns

   You are talking about Bashar's grandma. Insight is about his mom.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2011 13:07:31 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Bashar's Mother's Concerns
   The role of Momma Assad is very well known and has actually been written
   about extensively. She is the one who mediated between Hafiz and Rifaat al
   Assad when the latter attempted a coup (that's why Rifaat was then sent
   off to Europe.)

   question is, what kind of exit strategy is she actually advocating? i dont
   see her calling on Bashar to give up

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Nick Grinstead\" <nick.grinstead@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Saturday, December 10, 2011 12:37:31 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Bashar's Mother's Concerns

   One of my teachers who happens to be Turkish mentioned that there was a
   story going around the Turkish press about how Bashar's mother was the one
   making all the big decisions. I never saw anything about it in English but
   it tracks with your insight Kamran about B's mom wielding influence on her
   sons.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Saturday, December 10, 2011 8:33:27 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Bashar's Mother's Concerns

   Source is a Reuters correspondent of Syrian-Jordanian heritage who
   recently got kicked out of Syria.  

   Bashar's mother - the matriarch of the family (along the lines of her
   mother-in-law) - is disappointed in Bashar and Maher for the mess that
   they have created. She has been saying things like had your father been
   alive things would have never come to such a point. She is very concerned
   that her boys will meet the same fate as al-Qaddhafi and his sons and is
   pressing Bashar and Maher to seriously look into an exit strategy before
   the rapidly closing window of opportunity completely shuts itself.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

   --
   Nick Grinstead
   Regional Monitor
   STRATFOR
   Beirut, Lebanon
   +96171969463
","2011-12-10 21:44:14",1,"2012-03-06 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/60476_re-alpha-insight-syria-bashar-s-mother-s-concerns-.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
61254,"INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA/AZ/US/VZ/RUSSIA/TAIWAN - Erdogan's cancer,
 Turkish plan for Syria and more - TR325
","   SOURCE: TR325 and his business partner
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former NSC official in Turkey, adviser to Erdogan,
   energy expert negotiator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   TR325's business partner has an old classmate friend who was the lead
   surgeon on Erdogan's most recent operation. He said that Erdogan has colon
   cancer, but they haven't seen the second biopsy results yet to see if it's
   metastasized. In the last operation, they cut out 20 cm of Erdogan's colon
   (I just looked up that the average colon is about 1.5m long.)  That's a
   really significant operation. Erdogan is not going to be able to travel
   for a while, and he's going to have to carry around with him a colonoscopy
   bag for at least 2-3 months.  The prognosis is not looking good, though.
   The surgeon said they were estimating 2 years for him.

   This is very likely going to cause major splits within the AKP.  Gul
   doesn't have much support.  Davutoglu is paranoid that everyone else is
   trying to undermine him (there's a definite competition between him and
   TR325.)  When I asked who Erdgogan trusts, two names were mentioned - Ali
   Babacan (Deputy PM) and Taner Yildiz (energy minister.)  Both sources were
   asking how the US is likely to react to this situation.  Would they try to
   back the military like the old days?  CHP is still very much divided. Both
   seemed to think the military won't be able to take advantage of the
   situation.

   On Syria - the conversation centered on how far Turkey is actually going
   to go.  TR325 explained that the Turkish plan is centered on civil war in
   Syria.  Officially, it's Turkey providing the main training,a rms and
   support to FSA. Unofficially, US and TUrkey are doing this together in
   deploying SOF for this mission.  Notice all the talk in the press now
   about civil war breaking out in Syria. This is the narrative Turkey and US
   want to build.  I pointed out that creating the conditions for civil war -
   actual neighborhood to neighborhood fighting - is still pretty difficult
   considering that the Alawite forces are still holding together, but he
   seemed to think that this can escalate within 2 months time. He also said
   without saying that they're working on making that happen. He acknowledges
   it'll be messy and it will take a lot of blood and time for a Sunni power
   to emerge in syria, but that this is the Turkish obligation.

   The Turkish plan to preempt the instability that would result from civil
   war conditions is to implement the buffer zone 5-40km into Syrian
   territory and set up refugee camps.  I asked what levers Iran and Syria
   have to get Turkey to back off in relation to PKK.  He said
   (half-jokingly) that Karilan is Turkey's man (ie. turkey can actually
   negotiate with him.)  But he said PKK third-in-command (still need to get
   this guy's name) answers to Syria and Iran. Turkey knows this very well
   and he says Syria and Iran are already making moves to threaten attacks
   via this faction.

   I'm left with a lot of questions --

   Given the instability that is likely to result within AKP over Erdogan's
   health, would Turkey really be making bold foreign policy moves, such as
   helping to create a civil war in Syria?

   Turkey appears very confident that Syria/Iran have the means to play the
   PKK card. Why risk that?

   Turkey knows they'll be dealing with a massive refugee crisis in Syria -
   why propel that situation?

   Some other points -

   TR325 believes AZ wiill be able to export 5-7bcm via ITGI for SDII. 
   Russia has its stake in Edison to keep a foothold in that route.  The rest
   he agrees is likely going to have to be shipped to Russia eventually since
   the Europeans aren't financing anything right now. He did say that SOCAR
   is flush with money right now and could actually put money down on these
   projects if they have the market demand and client base to do it.

   They were both asking me what is happening with Trinidad and Tobago. I
   told them I have no idea. They were asking because they are involved in a
   business deal to sell conventional subs to Trinidad and Tobago. They're
   assuming the US is preparing something for VZ.  They are also involved in
   similar submarine sales to Taiwan and Japan.
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-03-06 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/61254_insight-turkey-syria-az-us-vz-russia-taiwan-erdogan-s-cancer.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","","alpha@stratfor.com",""
63141,"Contact in Greece
","   This is an open call if anyone would like to use this contact/source. He
   is a paid subscriber and works as a researcher in the Greek Military. He
   is also submits articles to an online defense journal.
   http://www.defencenet.gr/defence/index.php This can also be seen as a
   BizDev lead with the magazine, so I am including Todd & Aaric as well.

    

   George Tsiboukis

   grtsib@yahoo.com

   0030 210 8029709

    

   Either way  he sounds very knowledgeable when we've spoken and  is an avid
   reader. I've included one of his past emails some of you may of already
   seen. He called me up yesterday to talk about Kosovo, the rise of the \"New
   Democratic Party\" in Greece, military procurement problems, and aerial dog
   fighting that has been happening in the Mediterranean.  I'm sure he would
   love to contribute any information we could use in our analysis.

    

   Let me know if I can provide any more info about him.

    

   Solomon Foshko
   STRATFOR

   T: 512.744.4089
   F: 512.744.4334
   Solomon.Foshko@stratfor.com

   Well here as you know we had the KYSEA. According to the information I
   have the priorities for new programms are.
   -New SAR and CSAR helicopoters for the Air Force (15 and 2 respectivelly)
   14-32 New helicopters TTH-90 for  the Army, the initial plan was for 14
   units, recently they discuss for 20 more. Soon we will see how this number
   will be distributed throughout the 5 next years. 2 CSAR are included in
   these 32 new units. The final plan talks for 48 transport hilos and 6 CSAR
   hilos. Therefore by 2010 there will be a fleet of 48 TTH-90,  6 TTH-90+ 8
   Super Puma in CSAR role.
   -6 New Frigates with AAW capacities probanly the French Italian Horizon
   type, although the Germans are playing hard because although we had
   promised to the Germans to buy 30-40 Typhoon the new KYSEA did not take
   any decision postopoining that for the year 2010 when F-35 will have
   reached at its final stages of development promising a hard competition.
   The Air Force ceiling is 310 airplanes. With the last summers order the
   Airforce by 2010 wil have 35 F-4 PI2000, 22 RF-4E, 25 M-2000MK-5,
   21M-2000, 89 F-16 BLK52+, 32  F-16 BLK30, 40 F-16 BLK 50, 43 A-7E and
   TA-7C Total, 307 Airplanes. Soon there is going to be a need for 100 new
   plans. Probably there are going to be an upgrating programme for the
   remaining M-2000, perhaps 10 new M-2000Mk5 to cover loses. Important to
   mention that the M-2000Mk5 can use the substrategic SCALP-ER missile (90
   units) and the AS-39 Exocet missiles (39 units).
   -Development with the French the Swiss and the Sweedish a new UCAV Neuron.
   Greece seems to turn to the development of a number of UCAV, UAV SEAD/EW,
   UAV for all the three banches of the Armed Forces. The budget is
   significant and the number of the systems they want to buy are huge for
   the Greek standards. It seems that we are heading for the 1 fighter plane
   2-3 UCAV commanded by the plan combination
   - French Sattelite reconnaisance BOC-HELLIOS and sattelite
   telecommunication systems, high priority
   -New 155mm German Howitzers since our friends the Americans do not allow
   to the Germans to sell to us 168 M-109 from the German surplus. Propable
   number 48-168 even construction under licesence is possible
   -Updrating programme for the 4 MEKO 200 frigates. The fleet will have 6 S
   Type upgrated Frigates, 4 Meko 200 Upgrated also and 6 new I guesss
   Horizon Frigates. Four of them will be AAW and the other 2 have not been
   decided, 2 S Type for training. Total 16+2 boats, 7 modern submarines (4
   T-214, 3 T-209AIP 1 T-209 training), 8 modern gunboats for sea border
   patrols, (perhaps 4 more we will see), 2 old US boats, 7 Super Vita FAC
   missile boats (5 ready 2+1 under discussion), 4 Combattand upgrateded FAC
   missile boats, 7 modern minesweepers, 4 Zubr, 5 modern LST, 1 AOR, 1 LPD
   under discussion, 3 Seahawks hilos. As you can see besides the
   minesweepers the rest of the boats are European. Another mistake of the US
   Government.
   -84 Wheeled AIFV carriers, Finnish, Austrian, French or German candidates
   - 5 Maritime ASW airplanes, there is a discussion for 12 S-3 Viking plans
   instead it depence on the US proposal
   -Uprgading 9 CH-47D
   -Upgrading the existing 20 AH-64A+ hilos to the AH-64D level
   -291 AIFV, German PUMA or Sweedish CV-90 systems
   Several medium and small other programmes

   The problem with the Greek Armed Forces is not the quality of its arms nor
   the quality of the personnel but the luck of long term strategic vision
   and the fear for the reaction of the antimilitary public opinion that does
   not like to see involvement of Greek Armed Forces in conflicts. You see we
   are too much pacifists for the neighburhood we live. The businessmen and
   an academic elite does not believe in the idea of the use of military
   force. On the contrary they are characterised by their compromising ideas
   even for issues of high national interest. They believe and in a great
   level they have convinced the public opinion that problems could be solved
   if you show more understanding and retriet to the claims of our, always
   demading something, friends the Turks.It is funny but if you read the
   related bibliography for the Greek-Turkish disputes it has been Turkey
   that always demaded something from Greece not the oposite. I will attach
   you a study done by a US Navy Officer regarding one of the Greek Turkish
   disputes. I believe that it is a good way to start learning about our
   disputes.

   This Government at the moment is trying to follow the EU instructions for
   lower debts and less expencies and they want to pay first the debts of the
   previous Government and reduce the perecentage of the GDP spend for the
   military procurement. I really do not know how they are going to do that.
   As it looks like the only US stronghold is the Airforce. All the US MBT
   will be withdrawn from the Greek Army soon and replaced by the Leo-1A5,
   Leo-2A4, Leo-2A6HEL. The new Marder1A3 AIFV will replace the old BMP-1 and
   some M-113. In few words the persistance of the US Government to link
   politics with Armament procurement has reduced the existence of US systems
   in the Greek Armed Forces especially in the Navy and slowly but stadily in
   the Greek Army. European industries have gained huge contracts over the
   last few years. The same applies for Britain that gained only 1 major
   programme the last 10 years. The presence of the British Defence companies
   in Greece is very small. The Russians have won bigger contracts. Both
   countries UK and US have lost billions of dollars mainly because of their
   positions for the Cypriot issue and the Greek Turkish disputes. I do not
   know what are the benefits from this policy but I know something very well
   that in Berlin, Paris, Stockholm and Moscow they do parties all  these
   years when Greece buys Defence systems.

   Now for the Foreign Office I am skeptical for what they can. I do not want
   to go through more details because I might be wrong.
   I hope that the information I send will cover your interest for the Greek
   developments. Soon I will have more details for the new Greek Armament
   procurement programmes and I will send you updates.

   The conclusion is that in Greece we do not believe on our own abilities we
   have the warphovic syndrom as they call it and spend billions of dollars
   on arms with no solid result, it is like an investment that does not give
   you back anything but only few bits of  God knows what. A country that
   spends a lot of money on arms but is afraid or trying not to use them does
   not have the respect of the others. This is my opinion I am not saying
   that we should become the gangsters of the region but from time to time is
   good to say no and show to the rest of the world,  respecting above all
   the international laws and the UN charter, that you can use your power
   whatever this could be.

   Best Wishes
   George

   PS
   Enjoy your reading
","2007-06-20 16:55:21",1,"2012-03-07 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/63141_contact-in-greece-.html","solomon.foshko@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com,hanna@stratfor.com,aaric.eisenstein@stratfor.com",""
64027,"INSIGHT - Russia/Israel/Georgia/Mexico - defense deals and swaps
","   Please see insight message further below for more context
   PUBLICATION: No, but ask first
   ATTRIBUTION: N/A
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: MX301 - Former Mexican cop, Latam military analyst,
   writes for Jane's
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION: 
   SPECIAL HANDLING: n/a
   Met with my Mexican source/friend again today and dude is getting shadier
   by the day. We followed up on our past discussion on Russia compromising
   the Israeli-made Georgian UAVs prior to the August war. 
   Here is what else I learned
   One of the source's friends/colleagues -- formerly military i think but
   now does private defense deals on the side (it's Mexico) contacted him in
   July (prior to the Georgia war). Apparently the Georgians had contacted
   this guy because they were frantically looking for a replacement for the
   Israeli UAVs that were compromised. Not only that, but they asked for
   10,000 rounds of ammo (source was talking fast, so i dunno if this is
   exactly what he said) but something like 6.22 mm rounds, 'NATO standard'
   because the Chinese ammo that the Georgians had only went 400 yards. Also
   on the list was a request for 2 bell helicopters. The Georgians were
   pretty much looking for anyone who would sell to them and were willing to
   pay top dollar (shows how frantic the Georgians were in July knowing that
   war is coming). My source put the other guy in touch with a private
   defense contractor to make the deal but ended up getting screwed over with
   the commission.
   Here is the most interesting part:
   I inquired more about the compromised Israeli UAVs. What he explained was
   that Israel and Russia made a swap -- Israel gave Russia the 'data link'
   code for those specific UAVs; in return, Russia gave Israel the codes for
   Iran's Tor-M1s.
   I asked about the S-300 (source tracks a lot of defense deals for Jane's).
   He doesn't think the Russians will give it to the Iranians. Besides, he
   said... Israel and Turkey have been collaborating very closely on the
   S-300s. He explain how about 8 years ago when Russia sold S-300s to Greece
   to base in Crete (which were supposed to protect Cyprus), Russia delivered
   those with a carrier so that Turkey wouldn't try to sink them. (things got
   a bit noisy so i may have misheard some of this). The gist of what he said
   is that Turkey has been cracking the S-300 since the Crete sale and has
   been sharing intel on the S-300 with the Israelis to ensure that they
   retain an advantage over Iran should Iran get them from the Russians.
   as far as the Georgian UAVs go, they were interested in the Mexican ones
   because the Mexican UAVs had something (forget the name. it was
   auto-something' that basically backs up teh UAV system in case someone
   hacks into it and immediately returns the UAV to base.
   Previous insight:
   PUBLICATION: ask me first
   ATTRIBUTION: N/A
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: MX301 - Former Mexican cop, Latam military analyst,
   writes for Jane's
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION: 
   SPECIAL HANDLING: n/a
   I was getting a drink with my Mexican cop friend after class and we
   started talking about Mexican UAVs. He has been advising the government
   for the past couple years on the need for more UAV use for the military
   against the cartels. I read one of his policy memos on paper that was
   pretty technobabbly, but if you guys need any info on this, he's the guy.
    The army and the navy have UAV capability, though the army doesn't really
   take them all that seriously. Recently (like a year ago) the federalistas
   (fed police) started using them too.
   Ok, here's the really juicy part:
   There is a private Mexican company called Idra that the government funded
   to make UAVs. They are actually pretty high standard according to him and
   beat out the Israeli UAVs in testing. My friend was consulting Idra at the
   time and so he was privy to a lot of deals that were on the table. This is
   the story --
   The Mexican government is now paying some $25m (? can get the #s later)
   for UAVs from Israel. Idra is basically like WTF, but the reason is
   basically corruption. There is a deal b/w the Mexican interior ministry
   and the Israelis where they're getting a hefty kickback.
   This is the interesting part, though.
   Idra had an offer to sell UAVs to Georgia (this was happening during and
   after the war). The reason Georgia needed the UAVs is because the UAVs
   they had bought from Israel had been compromised by the Russians. The
   Russians got the data link for the UAV (there is some suspicion that the
   Israelis after the war may have given this to them. Remember all the
   intense mtgs b/w the Israelis and the Russians where the Russians got the
   Israelis to back off of defense deals to Georgia in return for Russia
   backing off Iran?). Anyway, the Georgians gave Idra a picture of one of
   their crashed UAVs. The source explained though that if the UAV were
   targeted, it would have been blown to pieces pretty much (it's like the
   size of a car basically). But the picture he saw showed the UAV intact. He
   inquired and basically what happened was that the Russians acquired the
   data link to hack into the system and force the UAV into the ground. I
   think they may have crashed another one too.
   So, since the Georgian UAVs were compromised, they then tried to sell them
   to the Azerbaijanis. I dont know if that deal went through. Idra backed
   off the deal to Georgia because they were advised that it would raise a
   lot of political complications between Mexico and Russia.
   I asked about other deals between Idra and foreign countries. Chavez was
   the first one who wanted to buy their UAVs. The source advised them to not
   have their first foreign sale be to someone like Chavez for political
   reasons.
   Can get follow-up info if anyone is interested. I just thought this was a
   fun little story.
","2009-02-26 04:37:21",1,"2012-02-27 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/64027_insight-russia-israel-georgia-mexico-defense-deals-and-swaps.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
66013,"INSIGHT - Israel - IM assassination - IL1
","   PUBLICATION: For background/analysis

   ATTRIBUTION: Israeli source (connected)
   SOURCE  Reliability :  B 

   ITEM CREDIBILITY:  2 

   SPECIAL HANDLING: N/A

    

    

   On the Mughniyeh assassination:

    

   Definite M.O. of the Mossad. Was a very elegant attack. As the footage
   showed, the car was still very much intact, controlled explosion fitted in
   the head rest.

    

   Mossad never claims assassinations. Only time they did claim was for the
   Ali Hassan Salameh assassination (which is also one of the rare times
   Israel acted without notifying US, and US was pissed b/c he was CIA
   liaison).

    

   US for sure knew about the assassination, and state dept's comments on the
   assassination reflect that.

    

   I really believe that Mossad had been tracking IM for some time. This
   small editorial showed up the day after the assassination in haaretz
   talking from an operative perspective on how attached you get to someone
   you're tracking and that weird sense of sadness when they're eliminated
   b/c you've been following their every move for so long. Can only be
   understood from an operative's perspective. He was a great asset for
   Mossad to follow, but unclear why he was taken out now. Perhaps connected
   to a desire on part of the US/Iran to apply pressure on Iran at this point
   or a good opportunity presented itself. Mossad knew he had been
   reactivated for some time now...he had been tracked for a while.

    

   How the operation was likely carried out:

   Mossad works in modular teams. This op took a lot more than just 3 people,
   but you never have that many in country at the time of the attack. You
   have one person go in for surveillance, take them out, send in another
   person to acquire the explosives, take them out, a bomb maker sent in and
   out, etc. Unclear if they had anyone in country at the time of the actual
   attack .. would not be surprised if the bomb was detonated by a sat signal
   (my note - maybe my cell phone ping theory is true?). Also, anyone they
   did have working with them in country at time of attack was likely an Arab
   recruit (probably why Syria and Iran are implicating an Arab regime in
   this). No question though that this was Mossad op.

    

   IM was a key asset, and was active. He was able to survive for so long b/c
   he was so closely guarded by the Iranians. When I say he was active, I
   don't mean he was an operative directly involved in all the training, etc.
   He was the strategist, they called him their chief of staff. And you get
   fat when you're sitting in Tehran as the chief of staff. It's the nature
   of the biz.

    

   Retaliation will come. It's not a question of if, but when. Will be more
   like the Buenos Aires attack - overseas, covert op. And it will be a big
   one. Hezbollah has the overseas assets to pull this off, and remember in
   the BA attack the Iranians succeeded in bribing the Argentinian security
   officials and investigation team.

    

   Israel is militarily ready for another war. Ashkenazi has done a
   phenomenal job over the past year in reforming the system..it's really
   quite amazing. He's a Golani - that means he is hardcore. We have jokes in
   Israel that the Golani Brigades are the ones that eat dirt and are the
   toughest...Ashekenazi is way serious about this, and has not given a
   single interview.

    

   Also, Meir Dagan has totally transformed Mossad. He came in and literally
   shut down the Mossad's research dept. He said I don't want any more
   academic papers, all focus is on operations. This Mughniyeh hit was his
   baby. It's no coincidence that Olmert extended Dagan's tenure to 2009 for
   the first time RIGHT AFTER the IM hit.

    

   Israel's ego was very badly bruised from the war with Hezbollah, and this
   assassination plus the air strike in Syria is Israel's way of coming back
   and showing they're still strong. It also earns Olmert the political
   capital he needs. This is the kind of action are we going to see from
   Israel - more operations like this.

    

   Israel DOES NOT want another war with Hezbollah right now. They are not
   trying to goad them into another war either. The focus is on covert ops.
   There is no way Israel will try a repeat of the 1982 war in Lebanon. That
   was Israel's Vietnam. Israel absolutely is sensitive to military
   casualties, moreso than the US. That was what the Winograd report was all
   about - note it didn't talk about the civilian casualties, it was all
   about the military casualties and whether it was worth their lives to
   launch the ground op so late in the game. This is embedded in the Israeli
   psyche. Israel will not be for a high casualty war. Even during the
   Lebanon war this was true.

    

   On Hamas..

    

   Backchannels b/w Israel and Hamas are ongoing. Egypt is the main channel
   for these (Omar Suleiman mainly). Barak doesn't know what to do yet about
   Gaza. There is even talk of reoccupying, but that's a messy situation
   still. The Dimona bombing came from Hebron; ironically, Israeli peace
   activists succeeded in stopping the wall building at the spot where the
   bomber got through.

   There is a lot of political pressure piling on Olmert to do something
   about Gaza though. The Sderot families have influence. The Qassams are
   more of a psychological weapon than anything, they don't cause much
   damage. But the political effect can not be understated.

    

    

    

    

    

    
","2008-02-21 22:00:39",1,"2012-03-13 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/66013_insight-israel-im-assassination-il1-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","","intelligence@stratfor.com",""
66346,"[Insight] INSIGHT - Syria - what are they thinking - ME1
","   SOURCE: ME1
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
   PUBLICATION : no - for background 
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor source in Lebanon
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   DISTRO: Analysts 
   A recent convo I had w/source:
    
    
    
   <Pressure is mounting on Syria>
   Yes, but the Syrians are not over-alarmed.

    <... the US is sending warships to the Med>

   The Syrians and their Lebanese allies see it as a token gesture made upon
   the constant pleading of the Seniora government. Don't worry, sending the
   Cole does not mean that the US will hit Syria. The Syrians see it as
   similar to US President J. Kennedy to send five fighter jets to Jedda,
   Saudi Arabia back in 1963 to show support for the Al-Saud when the
   Egyptian air force, operating in Yemen, used to strafe Saudi Arabian
   border villages.

    <the Saudis are leading a campaign to boycott the AL summit,>
   they made their participation contingent upon the election of a Lebanese
   president ahead of the summit. The president will not be elected ahead of
   the summit, which may relocate to Sharm el-Sheikh.

   < the Gulfies are issuing travel warnings curtailing travel to Lebanon>
   because Syria has charged them with involvement in the assassination of
   Imad Mughniyye.

    <and Israel is strongly hinting that it's going to step up its military
   campaign against Hezbollah..>
   this will happen, no doubt, before the end of this year.

   <what are the syrians thinking right now?>
   The Syrians are excellent game players. They know they must be
   accommodated in order for them to authorize the election of a president.
   The regime is comfortable and the Asad regime is secure.

   < is it time to cut a deal on the presidency?>

   No. Lebanese politics is hopelessly polarized. One side has to be
   defeated.

   <do you have some good insight into what the syrian regime is
   calculating?>

   They essentially want the Americans to free the Israelis to sign a peace
   treaty with Syria and they want the Hariri Tribunal to be degraded. They
   will never allow the election of the president unless they get guarantees
   on this.
","2008-02-29 20:27:24",1,"2012-03-13 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/66346_-insight-insight-syria-what-are-they-thinking-me1-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:reporting@stratfor.com","reporting@stratfor.com",""
66371,"ME1 INSIGHT 2 - MORE ON ASSASSINATION
","   I was informed that the assassination of Mughniyye has an unmistakable
   Ehud Barak's hallmark. He is known for this style of high concept
   assassinations.

   There is no word on a particular Syrian agent, but this goes without
   saying. The Israelis have many Druze \"eyes\" in Syria. It is unlikely that
   an investigation will discover the Syrian associates. The Israelis have
   perfected their espionage networks in Syria many years ago. My source says
   the Israeli have learned many lessons from the arrest back in 1965 of Elie
   Cohen, the Israeli agent who was eventually hanged in the Marje Square in
   Damascus.

   There was no evidence of power outage at the time of the explosion. It is
   not yet clear if there was mobile phone connectivity problem. It was an
   evening explosion and word will come out within the next few hours. Will
   keep you posted on this.

   My source believe has an interesting version related to Mughniyye's
   assassination. He does not entirely refute the possibility that certain
   elements in Syrian intelligence were involved in the assassination. I need
   to probe this further. As you know, I do not subscribe to conspiracy
   theory, but I will certainly look into this hypothetical allegation.
    
","2008-02-13 17:55:49",1,"2012-03-13 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/66371_me1-insight-2-more-on-assassination-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","","intelligence@stratfor.com",""
66558,"[Insight] INSIGHT - Lebanon - Syria/Hez/Iran/IM assassination - ME1
","   PUBLICATION: No

   ATTRIBUTION: Source in Hezbollah

   SOURCE  Reliability :  B 

   ITEM CREDIBILITY:  3 

   SPECIAL HANDLING: N/A

   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

    
    
   the short story: this Hezbollah source is claiming that Syria intel is
   spreading rumors that nasrallah ordered Mughnyah's assassination because
   of a power struggle he had with him (recall our earlier analyses on how
   nasrallah was getting demoted in hte organization, iran was unhappy with
   him, and figures like Mughniyah, Naim Qasim, etc. have been put in
   charge). THe source denies that these rumors are true.
    
   If the rumors are true, that's interesting, because it would indicate that
   Hez is pretty badly fractured right now. If the rumors aren't true, that's
   still interesting, b/c then what are Syria's intentions? Seems like Syria
   would be very desperate to cover up any involvement in the attack.
    
   from ME1's Hez source:
   My source says Syria has demanded from Hizbullah to interrogate three of
   its top officials, two in its military intelligence apparatus and a key
   security official in the southern suburbs. Hizbullah has categorically
   refused the Syrian demand. Syrian intelligence is already interrogating
   four Palestinian security officers, three of whom are from the PFLP-GC. My
   source believes the Syrians are deliberately trying to shift the focus of
   the investigation in order to reach a dead end. He says their pattern of
   investigation resembles the fake evidence they produced in response to the
   assassination of Rafiq Hariri, when they claimed that a Palestinian
   suicide militant named Abu Adas was responsible for detonating the 1000kg
   explosive device.

   According to my source the Syrians are leading the investigation in a way
   that would suggest a link between Hasan Nasrallah and the assassination of
   Mughniyye. The Syrians are spreading rumors that the IRGC is very angry
   with Hasan Nasrallah and his cliche in Hizbullah for their failures during
   the 2006 summer war. In particular, the Iranians are dismayed with the
   failure of Hizbullah gunners to inflict significant casualties as a result
   of firing more than 4000 rockets against Israel. Hizbullah handling of the
   Iranian provided missiles has caused Israel to lose respect for Iran's
   arsenal of missiles. The firing of the missiles was more like fireworks
   than instruments of death.

   As a result of the summer 2006 war, the Iranians believed that Mughniyye
   and his core in Hizbullah should replace Hasan Nasrallah and his failed
   cliche.  My source categorically denies these rumors as fgroundless.
   According to the rumors circulated by Syrian intelligence, Nasrallah
   decided to eliminate Mughniyye to prevent the IRGC coup against him.
","2008-03-07 15:58:40",1,"2012-03-13 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/66558_-insight-insight-lebanon-syria-hez-iran-im-assassination-me1.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:reporting@stratfor.com","reporting@stratfor.com",""
66770,"ME1 INSIGHT - Reply to questions on IM assassination
","   <1. How is Hezbollah reacting internally to the assassination? Do they
   suspect that Iranian or Syrian intelligence was complicit in the attack in
   any way?  Is a lot of distrust brewing between Iran, Syria and Hez right
   now?  Any guesses as to where the leak came from on IM's location?>

   Hizbullah does not distrust the Iranians. They distrust the Syrians. The
   Syrians know it and are defensive about IM's assassination. I believe the
   will put the blame of the Lebanese government. Mughniyye was scheduled to
   meet in Damascus Iranian minister of foreign affairs. I am not entirely
   sure who in the Syrian regime leaked information about Mughniyye, but I am
   working on it. Will most likely send you something on it tomorrow.

   <2. What kind of security detail did IM have when he was killed? What's
   his usual opsec procedure for when he travels between Beirut, Damascus and
   Tehran?>

   IM had already held meetings with Hamas people in Damasucs and was
   scheduled to meet with Mottaki and Hamas people in a single meeting before
   his assassination. The Iranians and Hizbullah wanted to find a way to help
   beleagured Hamas in Gaza and they were aiming at finding ways to enable
   Hamas to launch raids into Israel from Gaza. Hizbullah and the Iranians
   are concerned that the days of Hamas are numbered in Gaza. Both see the
   demise of Hamas as a prelude to the demise of Hizbullah in Lebanon.

   When IM and other Hizbullah officials travel to Damscus they inform the
   Syrian authorities just before they cross into the border into Syria. They
   are not required to inform the Syrians in advance. Once inside Syria,
   Syrian intelligence vehicles escort them to their destination. When
   Hizbullah officials travel to Iran via Damascus, they board private jets
   with Iranian markings.

   <3. Does Hezbollah fear that there will be more targeted assassinations
   against its leadership? Have they adjusted their security procedures in
   any way?>

   Absolutely! They have curtailed the travel of key officials to Syria at
   the moment pending the investigation concerning IM's assassination. Their
   security arrangements in Lebanon are already very tight.

   <4. WHy would Hez all of a sudden be willing to accept Suleiman's
   candidacy now? What makes them trust him now?>

   They don't expect Suleiman to sack Shawqi al-Masri. For him to do so,
   means to lose the support of walid Junblatt, and Fuad Seniora as well.
   They do not expect Suleiman to accept their offer. Most likely they are
   manuevering. Speaking of trust, nobody trusts anybody in Lebanon.

   <5. Any ideas where Hez might strike in retaliation?>

   Yes! Hizbullah will seek soft targets. They are most likely to find
   Israeli targets in the Far East or South America. They will avoid targets
   in Europe. They may hit American targets in Jordan.
    
","2008-02-18 16:15:38",1,"2012-03-13 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/66770_me1-insight-reply-to-questions-on-im-assassination-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","","intelligence@stratfor.com",""
67353,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - Some thoughts on US, UK, France, Turkey
","   no one said the entire reason Libya is happening is because of these
   reasons.  what they were explaining was that on the mil side of the
   equation, they're getting a lot out of the mission and it's not a total
   drain on them

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 11:11:53 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - Some thoughts on US, UK, France, Turkey

   Zagros... sounds like Lord of the Rings (yes, I know, the mountains).

   I call bullshit on the entire reason Libya is happening is so that
   Americans can teach UK-France how to do command and control. That is
   post-facto reasoning by military guys who see that as the biggest
   positive, so they are rationalizing it after the fact.

   On 5/19/11 10:50 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

     Yeah, same in NATO. NATO sometimes organizes simulations based on
     totally faked countries, flags and geography. I worked in one of those.
     But this one is a bit different. Because everything is based on real
     facts except for Iran.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"scott stewart\" <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 6:44:32 PM
     Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - Some thoughts on US, UK, France, Turkey

     But that is actually a pretty common longstanding practice.

      

     When I was in the Army used to always make up goofy country names for
     the scenarios we created for exercises. But of course anybody who read
     the scenario could tell exactly what country the scenario was referring
     to.

      

      

      

     From: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:alpha-bounces@stratfor.com] On
     Behalf Of Emre Dogru
     Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 11:38 AM
     To: Alpha List
     Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - Some thoughts on US, UK, France, Turkey

      

     hahaha, gotta love this part. and you know why

      

     They're about to do what sounds like a pretty elaborate war game within
     NATO, and they complain that every time they do this, they're not
     allowed to call Iran 'Iran' in the game. It's referred to as 'Zagros'. 
     Why? Because the Turks insist on not calling Iran by it's name in these
     things.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 6:24:55 PM
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - Some thoughts on US, UK, France, Turkey

     My briefing yesterday with the USAF's strategy group was to help prep
     the USAF chief of staff before his trip to Turkey the first week of
     June. In this meeting, there was a US lt col, French lt col guy and
     British group captain, as well as the Europe guy from the State Dept's
     Office of the Secretary (who I completely owned in the discussion. he
     finally quit trying and then literally applauded stratfor's knowledge of
     these issues). Most of the discussion I had with them centered on our
     view on Turkey, the intermarium, Turkey's power struggle, etc. so
     nothing new to add there. The State Dept is still trying to wrap its
     head around how to deal with Turkey more effectively when it's becoming
     clear that Turkey isn't ready to handle everything on its plate. THere's
     also a lack of understanding on why Azerbaijan matters in this mix. 
     They're about to do what sounds like a pretty elaborate war game within
     NATO, and they complain that every time they do this, they're not
     allowed to call Iran 'Iran' in the game. It's referred to as 'Zagros'. 
     Why? Because the Turks insist on not calling Iran by it's name in these
     things.

     When I brought up Libya, and asked what's next in terms of the air
     campaign, the British adn French guys had an interesting response. The
     talk of UK only having 6 more months of funding for this air campaign is
     all about inter-service rivalry, justifying budgets, etc. The Brits and
     the French really don't seem concerned at all about the financial
     aspect. THey said it's an expense, but it's not expensive. It's costing
     each 1.3 million euro per month to do Libya (including the daily patrols
     and everything else).  By comparison, Afghanistan costs them 1.4 million
     per month.

     They are fine with the stalemate. The British guy, who had met with the
     British air force chief a few days ago, said that no one is really
     trying to force the issue at this point. the rebels don't want to ask
     for state recognition until they get the West back. No one seems really
     prepared to force regime change and give that commitment, but they're
     willing to wait this one out until something gives within to make
     Ghadafi fall (non-militarily.)
     The money isn't what matters. What the Brits and the FRench are really
     getting out of this mil campaign is a good, hard lesson from their
     \"American cousins\" on command and control for these missions. The lesson
     here is vital for them. THey gave all sorts of examples. When the LIbya
     campaign began, France was still coordinating its mission with the UK
     through this lt col French liaison in the Pentagon instead of directly
     with UK. Now, finally, the Brits have set up a command office in Paris
     for them to coordinate. Little things like that make a huge difference,
     and the US is helping them along the way so that they can prove they can
     do missions like this more independently and manage their neighborhood.
     Classic balance of pwoer, as they put it. French-UK cooperation has
     really benefited from this whole thing. They could really care less that
     it's about Libya. They see this mission as a very useful boost for NATO
     and that this raises the bar for new entrants.

     I countered that you can't consider it a boost for NATO when you're
     missing GERMANY (!)  They acknowledged that NATO's original purpose is
     broken. These regional realignments, with France, UK adn US working
     closely together is the new future. They still seem to think that
     despite warming German-Russian ties, they don't need to worry yet about
     Germany. Their military is still largely seen as irrelevant, and so in
     that sense, NATO is still doing the job of keeping Germany down and
     Russia out.

     The French guy joked that now Strauss-Kahn is out of the running,
     Sarkozy doesn't need to continue the war in Libya anymore. He's got the
     election

     --
     --
     Emre Dogru
     STRATFOR  
     Cell: +90.532.465.7514
     Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
     emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
     www.stratfor.com

     --
     --
     Emre Dogru
     STRATFOR  
     Cell: +90.532.465.7514
     Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
     emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
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 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-03-06 07:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/67353_re-alpha-insight-some-thoughts-on-us-uk-france-turkey-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","","alpha@stratfor.com",""
67571,"INSIGHT - IR902 - Iranian Diplomat on Mugniyah Investigation 
","   PUBLICATION:  Not at this time

    

   ATTRIBUTION:   N/A 

    

   SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  A

    

   ITEM CREDIBILITY:   Unable to verify the veracity of the information at
   this time.  Have asked for additional clarification. 

    

    SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:  secure

    

   SPECIAL HANDLING: secure list only 

    

   The Syrians are not divulging information to the Iranians and Hizbullah on
   the proceedings of the Mughniyye assassination investigation because they
   are waiting for the outcome of the forthcoming Arab summit in Damascus,
   and also because they want to dissociate themselves from any linkage to
   it. If the summit does not prove a success, the Syrians will come forth
   with an accusation of Saudi Arabian intelligence for playing a role in
   assassinating Mughniyye. So far, all suspects, believed to be four, have
   been Palestinians from Hamas and the Islamic Jihad.
","2008-03-18 12:48:20",1,"2012-03-13 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/67571_insight-ir902-iranian-diplomat-on-mugniyah-investigation-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
67572,"[Insight] INSIGHT - Iran/Syria/Hez - Hez told to lay low on IM
	retaliation? - PS102
","   PUBLICATION: No

   ATTRIBUTION: N/A

   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: PS102: Fatah military source

   SOURCE RELIABILITY:  B 

   ITEM CREDIBILITY:  3 

   SPECIAL HANDLING: N/A

   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva (through ME1)

    
    
   Iran and Syrian have unambiguously told Hizbullah not to avenge the
   assassination of Hasan Mughniyye in Damascus last month. Both countries
   are concerned that such a retaliation against the Jewish state might
   ignite a new war that does not spare Syria and Iran. Hizbullah's
   retaliation for Mughniyye's assassination was via the Islamic Jihad who
   launched the attack against the seminary in West Jerusalem that killed
   eight Israeli religious students. Neither of them has acknowledged
   responsibility for the attack. This has given Hizbullah the advantage of
   appearing as the group that executed the operation without having to
   publicize it for reasons obvious to everybody, i.e; to avoid a massive
   Israeli reprisal.
","2008-03-14 17:31:45",1,"2012-03-13 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/67572_-insight-insight-iran-syria-hez-hez-told-to-lay-low-on-im.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:reporting@stratfor.com","reporting@stratfor.com",""
69968,"[Insight] INSIGHT - Lebanon - Syria angry with Nasrallah? - ME1
","   PUBLICATION: No

   ATTRIBUTION: Source in Lebanon

   SOURCE  Reliability :  B 

   ITEM CREDIBILITY:  3 

   SPECIAL HANDLING: N/A

   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

    
    
   My note -- another indication that Syria is trying to make Nasrallah into
   its scapegoat?
    
   My source says Syria is very upset with Hizbullah's chief Hasan Nasrallah
   because, during his eulogy of Imad Mughniyye, he limited his accusation to
   Israel. Syrian president Bashar Asad has expressed his anger to Nasrallah
   through his own channels of communication. What particularly upset Asad
   was Nasrallah ommission of any reference to the role played by US
   intelligence in hunting down Mughniyye. Asad feels that by limiting the
   accusation to Israel, Nasrallah was jeopardizing Syria's attempts to
   convince Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert to relaunch the peace talks
   with Damascus. Nasrallah's accusation came at a time when the Israeli
   prime minister was meeting with his Turkish counterpart who informed
   Olmert that Syria accepts Israeli preconditions for resuming the talks.
   Asad has accepted that Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights will be
   gradual and over a 25 year period, and that it will not start until 10
   years after a peace treaty is reached.

   Asad felt that by eliminating the role of parties, other than Israel, in
   assassinating Mughniyye, Nasrallah was essentially asserting that the
   Mossad has penetrtated Syrian intelligence.Politically, it would have been
   more correct to include the CIA as well because Asad can always say that
   Arabs do not have the means to stop the USA, whereas it would reflect
   negatively on them to fail with the MOssad.

   ME1 Comment: Asad's position has much to do with the Arab shame culture,
   which places a premium on face saving, and emphasis on looking good, even
   when there is no reason for celebration.
","2008-03-07 16:02:01",1,"2012-03-13 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/69968_-insight-insight-lebanon-syria-angry-with-nasrallah-me1-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:reporting@stratfor.com","reporting@stratfor.com",""
71381,"Re: [MESA] Fwd: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY - AKP's foreign policy
","   I will try to get in touch with them to answer these questions.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Middle East AOR\" <mesa@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, June 2, 2011 5:17:48 PM
   Subject: Re: [MESA] Fwd: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY - AKP's foreign policy

   have you investigated what kind of links they've had with the MB?  do they
   have the same ideological difference with the MB that the Gulenists have?
   what did their cooperation (if any) look like before the uprisings?  can
   you give some more background on Mazlum-Der? im not familiar at all with
   them

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Emre Dogru\" <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Middle East AOR\" <mesa@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, June 2, 2011 9:14:18 AM
   Subject: Re: [MESA] Fwd: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY - AKP's foreign policy

   Mazlum-Der organized this conference about Syria in late April and Syrian
   MB's public relations dude Mohammed Tayfur attended. Head of Mazlum-Der's
   speech includes pretty harsh words against Assad. They organized some
   protests in front of the Syrian embassy. They also sent a letter to Syrian
   ambassador and asked permission to visit Syria to investigate the
   incidents.
   Following is a report about the conference in Turkish on their
   website:http://www.mazlumder.org/haber_detay.asp?haberID=9612
   Doesn't mean that Mazlum-Der is an influential political current, but they
   are more Islamist than AKP/Gulen and they are likely to have better links
   with MB.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Middle East AOR\" <mesa@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, June 2, 2011 4:56:19 PM
   Subject: Re: [MESA] Fwd: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY - AKP's foreign policy

   yes, definitely a lot of pro-AKP bias, but i find that revealing.  ive
   noticed a lot from AKP officials that extreme arrogance and defensiveness
   when it comes how they do things and how they conduct their foreign
   policy. they think the Arabs are ready to put the pashas back on the
   pedestal in a snap.

   really want to learn more about you're finding on the turkish Islamist
   political current's links with MB. pls send out your initial findings

   agreed he's overplaying turkish influence, but the turks do seem extremely
   involved in the syria situation.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Emre Dogru\" <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Middle East AOR\" <mesa@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, June 2, 2011 8:51:33 AM
   Subject: Re: [MESA] Fwd: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY - AKP's foreign policy

   a lot of what he says here is AKP's official policy&propaganda, which is
   good to remember.
   your comment on how AKP sees Arabs and how it wants to be a model to them
   is spot on. All Turkish televisions were debating whether turkey could be
   a model for egypt right after mubarak fell, as if it was egyptians' top
   priority. my reading is that arabs don't really care about a turkish model
   (certainly not egyptians) and i think they would feel turkish arrogance in
   this policy, which will backfire big time. doesn't mean that they will
   completely refuse anything that turkey has&suggests but i don't think that
   they want to become another turkey. no matter how much davutoglu says
   turkey doesn't intend to push its demands in the mideast, arabs will sense
   that turkey wants to be their model, and given historical animosity, they
   will be more sensitive about that. i'm curious about what Kamran thinks
   about this.
   source seems to be overplaying turkey's influence on syria (turks wrote
   assad's speech??). but it makes sense that all these opposition
   conferences aim to put pressure on assad. i think it's clear that turkish
   - syrian opposition ties are not that strong. i'm working on this
   currently and my initial findings show that more islamist political
   current such as saadet/mazlum-der has better ties with syrian mb than
   akp/gulen bloc.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: mesa@stratfor.com
   Sent: Thursday, June 2, 2011 4:20:20 PM
   Subject: [MESA] Fwd: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY - AKP's foreign policy

   i know this is long, but worth reading through.  we were having this
   debate earlier on Turkey's influence over Syria. I think they are building
   more influence than we were giving them credit for. also found their plan
   on egypt to be pretty interesting

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Michael Wilson\" <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, June 1, 2011 4:02:46 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY - AKP's foreign policy

   PUBLICATION: background/analysis
   ATTRIBUTION: n/a
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:
   Head of DC arm of SETA, main AKP think tank;  strong supporter of AKP,
   close to Davutoglu
   Reliability : B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2-3
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   Just came back from a nearly 3 hour lunch with this Turkish source.  He
   heads up the AKP's premier think tank SETA from DC and is supposed to act
   as the face of Turkey's foreign policy in US.  He and Davutoglu are close
   (the source is always defending Davutoglu and thinks (our) George and D
   are soul mates) and had just come back from Ankara, where had spent a lot
   of hours working with Davutoglu.  SETA is undergoing a major expansion
   right now. Instead of just being a Turkish think tank, they are turning
   into a regional think tank with offices in Cairo, Brussels and Moscow (in
   addition to their current 2 in DC and Ankara.) AKP is throwing money at
   the institute, trying to make it into a stronger foreign policy arm of the
   government.  (side note - i asked why those locations;  he said Turkey
   wouldn't want to be in the Caucasus because it's better not to 'offend'
   Russia in its periphery;  Cairo is good b/c it allow Turkey extension into
   Arab world, North Africa especially; Turkey can reach into Iraq just fine
   from Ankara and SETA doesn't want to be seen as an intel outlet in these
   countries either.)

   Turkey, specifically the AKP, is in overdrive right now.  Davutoglu says
   it's all overwhelming, but that Turkey should recognize the opportunity
   that has opened up. It was very difficult, for example, for Turkey to
   expand influence into North Africa before. AKP did not have good relations
   with Egypt, virtually nothing with Tunisia, etc. Now, it's open access.
   SETA has been organizing all kinds of conferences -- notably focusing on
   \"reformed\" Islamists - for opposition groups in nearly every Arab country.
   They bring them to Ankara, give them tours of the ministries, have them
   observe parliamentary proceedings, teach them governance, etc. (They don't
   publicize the events, but the source said the NED funded one of these
   conferences with a Jordanian institute and wanted Turkey to take charge of
   it.) Turkey's internal security forces are training security forces in
   countries like Syria in how to deal with civil disobedience (ie. dont
   shoot protestors).  AKP's natural preference is to raise 'reformed' or
   moderate Islamist political opposition in these countries, with Turkey
   serving as the model.

   The source's attitude on this issue was something that I noticed a lot
   back when I was in Turkey. It's this whole 'all Arabs want to be like
   Turks' attitude during the region. The Arabs are seen as backwards, and if
   you talk to the Turkish military folks, they're seen as dirty, not even
   worth dealing with. But the AKP says since we have the Islamist linkage,
   we bring down the barriers between Turkey and the Islamic world, we CAN
   work with them, do business with them, teach them how to govern
   democratically and bring their militaries under civilian control, but they
   will always be inferior to us. As he put it, this whole Arab Spring will
   be a Turkish Spring, meaning that Turkey will transform the Arab Spring
   into the AKP model and they will all be grateful for it. 

   AKP doesn't really have strong ties with the Ikhwan (MB) in these
   countries, nor does Gulen, but they are working on building those ties
   now.  Another source I was talking to the other day (a former Gulenist)
   explained to me the big ideological differences between Gulen movement and
   the MB, where the Gulenists do not agree with the Sayyid Qutb line of
   thinking on political Islam and believe that Islamists should stay out of
   governance. He was explaining to me how this was drilled into them growing
   up by the Gulenist mentors and how that posed a big ideological barrier
   between the movement and the MB (note the MB never set up in Turkey.) You
   can argue that this aversion to 'political' Islam by the Gulenists is not
   as strong anymore given that the Gulenists rely on AKP as their main
   political vehicle and you even have 2 Gulenists running this time in
   Turkey's election in Istanbul. Point is, AKP and its allies are
   encouraging Islamist opposition groups in these countries to emerge from
   the Arab Spring and wants to mold them according to its own model of
   moderate Islam (you can imagine how this would greatly complicate things
   with Israel and US.)

   The source said Turkey is putting an unbelievable amount of pressure on
   Syria to engage in real reforms. It's not that AKP is trying to overthrow
   Assad, but they see a bigger security risk in having the Syrian regime
   suppress the opposition. He was saying how an increasing number of PKK are
   coming from Syria, and that SYria's policies toward its Kurds lead to
   radicalization, which creates security problems for Turkey.  Bashar's
   second speech was written by the Turks. The policy on citizenship for
   Kurds was pushed by AKP, and Bashar listened. AKP wants to see more, real
   reforms that allow for a legalized opposition. That's why AKP is giving
   the opposition groups in Syria a platform in Turkey - to intimidate the al
   Assad regime and build up links with developing alternatives to the Al
   Assads. It doesn't mean that the political transition will happen
   overnight, but Turkey is trying to push the regime to open up politically
   and allow for competition to enable these other political groups, like the
   MB. (SETA has been the main group organizing these conferences with the
   Syrian opposition.)

   He says that the US is pushing Turkey to pressure Syria harder, and that
   the pressure is coming from the top. Turkey is pushing back saying that
   they want to deal with Syria on their terms and that they don't want to
   push the Syrian regime over the edge.

   AKP wants to help Egypt rise in the region. It's not that Turkey views
   Egypt right now as a serious competitor, but it thinks that if Egypt could
   get its shit together under Turkish tutelage, then that will allow Turkey
   to better manage the region, especially when it comes to controlling and
   reforming Hamas, dealing with Libya, Tunisia, etc. (Interesting to note
   that the Turks are thinking along these lines already - just as US is
   looking to Turkey to share the burden, Turkey is already looking to
   develop proxies to share the burden within the region.) Things will go
   very badly if the military in Egypt doesn't follow through with its
   promises in the elections. Turkey wants to make sure the opposition,
   especially the MB, is given the room to rise.  It doesn't matter if Israel
   doesn't like it -- that's Israel's problem.

   He expressed frustration a lot throughout the discussion - that the US
   still views Turkey as junior, and tells it 'do this' or 'do that' in its
   foreign policy. The AKP doesn't like being treated that way, which results
   in a lot of issues when Turkish and US officials meet. Davutoglu feels
   that the security issues in the Persian Gulf region are exaggerated, and
   that the US plays up the Persian-Arab divide in trying to get Turkey to do
   something. From AKP's point of view, the question is, 'what do you want us
   to do?'  The AKP wants to tame the sectarian conflict, not exacerbate it
   by openly taking sides and making Iran out as the big, bad threat.

   This broadened up into a discussion on Davutoglu's 'zero problems with
   neighbors' foreign policy.  The source explained how a lot of people see
   this foreign policy as naive, but he says Davutoglu is not as naive as he
   appears. He may be an academic, but he's cunning. He knows he has problems
   iwth neighbors, but in his view, it doesn't serve Turkey's purposes to
   articulate those problems and brand neighbors as rivals. If Turkey tells
   its neighbors taht its whole strategic purpose is to resolve its problems
   and remove conflict, then it feels that it can work with them more
   effectively. this is the approach it takes with Iran, Russia, etc.,
   avoiding confrontation. He said how on the surface, Turkey won't take
   aggressive action against Iran, but in the meantime of course AKP will
   bolster the Sunnis in Iraq. I countered that that assumes that events in
   Turkey's neighborhood will occur according to Turkey's timeline and when
   Turkey is ready to deal with those problems - the world doesn't work that
   way. When problems push up against Turkey's interests, Turkey will have to
   respond one way or another, even if it doesn't seem 'neighborly.' Overall,
   the impression I get is that the AKP's foreign policy guys are still under
   the impression that this Davutoglu foreign policy doctrine is still the
   best way to go about conducting foreign policy. There is very little
   attention paid to the prioritization of foreign policy interests. Turkey
   still seems to be running around trying to put out fires and seize
   opportunities but is still severely lacking focus and discipline.  What
   Davutoglu does understand, according to the source, is that the best way
   for Turkey to learn is by doing. Davutoglu apparently compares Turkey's
   experience to the US post WWII when US didn't even have an intel agency.
   He believes that all of these regional developments will push Turkey into
   action and force Turkey to learn quickly how to manage its neighborhood.

   (Side note - Davutoglu doesn't want to translate his 500 page book on
   Strategic Depth into English, though it's been translated into Arabic and
   Russian. I asked why, especially since English is the lingua franca,
   wouldn't more people understand Turkey's foreign policy choices if they
   could read the book that the foreign policy chief wrote? He didn't want to
   give into the idea that English is the lingua franca - you can still sense
   this strong aversion to recognizing US power and wanting to assert Turkey
   independently of the US.)

   He thinks AKP will win big in the next election. There is really not much
   the secularist establishment can do to undermine their support. As long as
   the economy is okay, the AKP is secure. The ideological and political
   divisions within TUrkey are so severe still. This was especially clear
   following the assassination attempt against Erdogan recently. He talks
   with disgust about how the military could never do what the AKP has done
   in the past decade. When teh military ran things, they only cared about
   themselves whereas the AKP build trust between the state and the people.
   He said that the secularist groups still refuse to deal with Islamic
   countries. Even when SETA tries to reach out to the secularist think
   tanks, business associations for projects in places like Tunisia, Egypt,
   etc., they reject them with the attitude that Arabs are beneath them, we
   don't need to work with them. He says (and this is what davutoglu argues)
   that the AKP's mentality is what allows Turkish foreign policy to expand.

   The military doesn't have much option of trying to undermine AKP in the
   lead-up to elections. He pointed out the leaks recently on how some
   retired members within the military had meetings with PKK leadership, the
   allegation being that the military 'deep state' is trying to orchestrate
   attacks and undermine AKP's Kurdish policy.

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-06-02 16:21:31",1,"2012-03-07 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/71381_re-mesa-fwd-alpha-insight-turkey-akp-s-foreign-policy-.html","emre.dogru@stratfor.com","mailto:mesa@stratfor.com","mesa@stratfor.com",""
72057,"INSIGHT - TURKEY - on Iran/F-35s/PKK
","   PUBLICATION: background/analysis
   ATTRIBUTION: Turkish military source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Turkish air force pilot in DC for training on F-35
   joint strike fighter
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  don't know yet
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: high
   SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:  secure
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
   **we covered a lot during this little coffee date, but highlights are
   below. see especially what i got out of him on Israeli mil/special forces
   training in Turkish mountains for prep against Iran. will be seeing him
   again friday night for any follow-up questions
   (source is in DC for 3 yrs to train on and integrate the F-35 joint strike
   fighters into the Turkish air force, which they'll get in 2015 i think. he
   has been a pilot for the Turkish air force for 9 years, participated in a
   lot of dogfights over the Aegean, bombing raids in northern Iraq against
   PKK)
   Integration of the F-35s is very difficult and complex, but I feel like
   the US made TUrkey pregnant with this jet. You know it's like we're 4
   months pregnant or something, there is no going back. But we do need this.
   Besides Turkey, Greece, Italy, Spain and Singapore are all after the
   F-35s. If we don't get these we will be put behind.
   US-Turkish defense ties are growing a lot stronger, you can see by this
   deal. it's a lot of money, $10.5 billion dollars. Now the Greeks, tell me
   how the EU can justify their defense spending? because of Turkish threat?
   What TUrkish threat? (source then goes into looong explanation on how
   Greece has imposed these restrictions on air space over Aegean - the 6 mi
   v. 12 mi controversy that Turkey says Greece imposed unilaterally...he is
   apparently very pissed off at the Greeks). What happened to those days
   like in 1974 when Turkey and US were doing joint flights over Greek air
   space (laughs). As you know, US supplies both Greece and Turkey... there
   is not much we can do about that.
   Turkish-Israeli defense ties are still very strong. I have participated in
   a lot of Anatolian Eagle exercises and i'm disappointed in how we acted
   this year in kicking Israel out (source was clearly very secular, very
   military, not a fan of AKP). The military is not happy about this, but it
   is a political decision in cabinet for Turkey to invite foreign countries
   to our exercises. IT was an AKP decision, not a military decision.
   I dont think TUrkey will do anything if US/ISrael strike Iran. We know
   about the ISraeli air defense integration that they've achieved recently
   (didn't elaborate on this). Now what is interesting is you know Iran has
   very rough terrain and in winter it is especially difficult weather.
   Israel is on mediterranean, very different weather. So, guess where
   Israeli forces are training now?  Turkish mountains.
   If the US really cooperates closely with Turkey, and I mean REALLY
   cooperates, then there is a chance Turkey could allow use of its air
   space, maybe. When Turkey was bombing PKK targets in northern Iraq, i was
   doing those bombing raids based off intel provided by US.  (I ask, so then
   if US is cooperating and sharing intel, what more does TUrkey want?)  The
   targets were not important ones. US is still holding back on that
   information. Last year, US also prevented Turkey from carrying out an
   operation in northern Iraq. (sounds like tensions are still very much
   there)
   You are right, the TUrkish military's influence has weakened under AKP.
   Miiitary couldn't win hearts and minds of Kurds so AKP is doing this new
   strategy. (source then gives very typical Turkish explanation of how there
   is no such thing as Kurdistan, Kurds are really Turks, dont have a real
   language, etc.)
","2009-11-08 23:52:17",1,"2012-03-09 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/72057_insight-turkey-on-iran-f-35s-pkk-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
72358,"Re: DISCUSSION - US/MALAYSIA - evolving strategic cooperation
","   One point I forgot to mention. While Malaysia is not yet ready to be put
   in a situation where it has to 'choose' between the US and China, and will
   avoid and delay doing this for a long time, ultimately its strategic
   priority lies with the most powerful navy, and that means the United
   States.

   Malaysia has a large ethnic Chinese community that is economically
   powerful and increasingly a critical voting block with the power to weaken
   the ruling BN coalition -- this is conceivably a vulnerability in some
   future time. Malaysia has experienced Chinese-authored destablization in
   the past, in the form of Communist insurgency. We are nowhere near a
   situation where China would revert to Cold War behavior like this in
   supporting proxies to destabilize Malaysia. But my point in bringing this
   up is that ultimately Malaysia will side with the US if the situation
   comes to a standoff, because only the US (and its allies like Australia
   and Japan) can guarantee Malaysia's security and economic stability in its
   current form.

   The current question is how to maintain strong relations with both the US
   and China and avoid not move too fast or too far in a particular course of
   action that causes a negative reverberation on the other relationship.
   Since the US-China are in a 'thaw' period right now, this isn't as much of
   a problem, but as we've discussed the thaw can go away pretty soon, and
   China's maritime advances are gaining more attention.

   On 6/8/11 5:39 AM, Matt Gertken wrote:

     \"Okay I've finished looking into the recent US-Malaysia developments.
     The main story is simply that the US has said it is willing to expand
     military engagement, and has left the offer open to Malaysia to expand
     it.

     US-Malaysia defense cooperation began in the 1960s, was boosted in the
     1980s, in response to Vietnam's invasion of Cambodia, and then boosted
     again after 9/11. The low point in the relationship was the Asian
     financial crisis and Mahathir's run-in with the IMF, but ultimately
     Malaysia has always insisted on heavy state control of the economy and
     this hasn't hindered defense relationship.  The relationship was often
     conducted discretely to avoid Malaysian domestic hang-ups, but after
     9/11 it became more open, and Mahathir used the war on terrorism as a
     pretext to crush Islamist-leaning political opponents.

     The US has set Indonesia as the cornerstone of ASEAN re-engagement, and
     reached out to others like Vietnam, but it is also reaching out to
     Malaysia as a natural economic partner and one of its examples of a
     \"good\" Muslim state. Moreover, Malaysia is embedded in the Southeast
     Asian security dynamic. It is a key state given its position on the
     Strait, and it has has claims in the South China Sea territorial
     disputes, where the US is attempting to insinuate itself to prevent
     China from succeeding in dividing and isolating its ASEAN rivals.

     Obama, who stresses his Pacific heritage, has already held a bilateral
     visit with Najib once before at the US Nuclear Security Summit, and
     Gates and Clinton both visited in 2010, prior to Gates recent bilateral
     with Najib at the recent Shangri-La conference. The US is entering the
     East Asia Summit this year (along with Russia), which Malaysia
     originated as a non-US influenced Asian discussion group; Malaysia is
     joining the US-led Trans Pacific Partnership negotiations for a large
     new regional trade framework. On the security front, Malaysia has hailed
     the US joining the ASEAN Defense Ministers meetings.

     Malaysia in 2011 participated in the US/Thai Cobra Gold exercises,
     rather than being a mere observer. It recently sent a medical team to
     assist in Afghanistan. It remains a major counter-terrorism partner, and
     a counter-piracy player in the Strait, and has expanded authorized
     nonproliferation efforts by means of the 2010 Strategic Trade Act. Najib
     called for a new regional rapid-response team to deal with natural
     disasters, during his keynote address at Shangri-La.

     Both sides are emphasizing that the main focal points of cooperation are
     counter-terrorism, Malaysian cooperation in Afghanistan, Malaysian
     enforcement of non-proliferation rules, counter-piracy, and natural
     disasters. Yet the US is clearly laying the groundwork for something
     bigger than this.

     However, what is important is that the US wants cooperation with
     Malaysia to focus more on precisely the threats posed by China's rising
     maritime power. What the US is really offering is to expand its
     cooperation with Malaysia to cover maritime domain security and
     awareness. PACOM Chief Willard's comments in Kuala Lumpur highlight what
     the US has in mind: \"Domain security -- particularly maritime security
     -- is the quintessential common cause among nations. Not only for their
     navies but for the abundance of agencies that contribute to security ...
     coast guards or their equivalent, with law enforcement duties, in
     particular, can challenge illegal encroachment and criminal activities
     that navies may not. Attainment of maritime domain awareness --
     essential to security operations -- requires whole-of-government
     collaboration within and across our nations, across governments,
     judiciary, commerce, transportation, treasury and foreign affairs
     agencies all play key roles in assuring maritime security.\" 

     Malaysia is not currently in this frame of mind. Najib's recent comments
     emphasized the wishful thinking that cooperation with the US and China
     are not exclusive, and multilateralism is the only way forward --
     clearly Malaysia is trying to walk a the fine line and avoid 'cold war'
     scenarios between US and China.

     As with most of the US' re-engagement efforts in ASEAN, the concrete
     progress may be slow to develop.Gates' meeting with Malaysian PM Najib
     is a meeting of one lame duck and a potential lame duck. If Najib can't
     win big in upcoming general elections -- by far the primary concern in
     Malaysia at the moment -- then his party may dump him. And Malaysian
     foreign policy is essentially top heavy, driven by the PM, as a legacy
     of the Mahathir era, so there may be a limit to anything the two sides
     should decide upon, until Malaysia's political situation is more
     certain.

     It is also important to notice that China has been rapidly expanding its
     ties with Malaysia too. Hu Jintao visited in 2010, for the first time
     for a Chinese president in 20 years, and big business projects are under
     way, including Chinese companies building the new Kuala Lumpur mass
     transit railway.

     But what we can see here is that the US is trying to nudge Malaysia into
     a new era of defense cooperation, one that is focused on maritime
     security in a way that seeks to bind China into existing structures, and
     prepare for contingencies if this fails.

     ***

     NOTES on Malaysia-US military cooperation

      

      

      

     Office of Defense Cooperation - http://malaysia.usembassy.gov/odc.html

     .       ODC manages and supports the Malaysian Armed Forces (MAF)
     procurement of U.S. defense equipment, services and training.

     .       The F/A-18 \"Hornet\" case is the largest and most active FMS
     program.

     .       ODC coordinates and supports approximately 14 - 16 bi-lateral
     and multi-lateral exercises with the Malaysian Armed Forces and the
     Royal Malaysian Police each year in order to promote interoperability
     and cooperation.  Examples of such exercises are:  Cooperation Afloat
     Readiness and Training (CARAT), Cope Taufan, Keris Strike, Air Warrior,
     and Joint Combined Exchange Training.

     Conferences

     Each year, ODC sends about seventy members of the Ministry of Defense
     and Malaysian Armed Forces to participate in U.S. hosted or co-hosted
     conferences and seminars.  These events increase interoperability and
     cooperation between the U.S., Malaysia, and other countries in the
     region.

     .       ODC also supports specialized regional events and seminars in
     areas such as pandemic influenza preparedness and response;
     noncommissioned officer engagement, and maritime security.

     U.S. MILITARY EDUCATION AND TRAINING

     ODC manages the International Military Education and Training (IMET)
     program which provides U.S. training on a grant basis to students from
     Malaysia.  Each year, ODC sends approximately fifty Malaysian military
     personnel for training under IMET. ODC also manages the Foreign Military
     Sales Training Program, Counter Terrorism Fellowship Program (CTFP), and
     Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS) courses.

     .        

      

      

     Asia-Pacific Security Cooperation: National Interests and Regional
     Order. Ed. by See Seng Tan and Amitav Acharya. \"Malaysia Defense and
     Security Cooperation: Coming out of the closet\" J. N. Mak. pp127-153
       http://books.google.com/books?id=BTeRGyeAqbwC&pg=PA138&lpg=PA138&dq=%22United+States%22+AND+%22Malaysia%22+AND+%22military+cooperation%22+OR+%22defense+cooperation%22+OR+%22security+cooperation%22&source=bl&ots=EFpUilh0L_&sig=_fFDv3tCrBgTio2fsv3GqY-mInk&hl=en&ei=wVvuTfwiwdvRAbSJjd4D&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=3&ved=0CCYQ6AEwAg#v=onepage&q=%22United%20States%22%20AND%20%22Malaysia%22%20AND%20%22military%20cooperation%22%20OR%20%22defense%20cooperation%22%20OR%20%22security%20cooperation%22&f=false

     .       1958 - US-Malay pact for US to supply military equipment

     .       Malaysia didn't want to join SEATO, didn't want to become US
     puppet (substitute for British colonial master), and was fighting ethnic
     Chinese domestic communist insurgency, so needed cooperative elements in
     Chinese community

     .       Malaysia did join AMDA , virtually inherited from British, but
     had to be very careful not to reveal full extent. Be discrete about
     American cooperation.

     .       Opposition to economic neoliberalism from the West meant that
     Malay had to be careful about cooperating with the West on defense

     .       1969 race riots -

     .       Mahathir and other Malay nationalists emerge declaring less
     accommodation toward minorities

     .       1970 - Malaysia begins state-driven development model. `Look
     east' to Japan and ROK for examples. Create Malay capitalist class.

     .       Malaysian acquisition of military assistance from the US/West
     grows

     .       Malay coop with Australia under FPDA; the only problems emerge
     when Oz seems ready to act as regional policeman under the US, such as
     when John Howard said Oz could target terrorists outside its borders,
     drawing Mahathir's ire.

     .       1981 Mahathir takes over. Worries about American values and
     neoliberalism. But

     .       ASEAN defense cooperation lacking - differences, and all low
     tech (therefore nothing to gain)

     .       Malaysia tried to encourage the US not to abandon the region
     after the Vietnam war

     .       Malay coop with Thai and Indonesia on border regions to fight
     communist insurgency

     .       Malay reorient toward conventional land threat when Vietnam
     invaded Cambodia early 1980s.

     .       US assistance increased after the Viet invasion of Cambodia, and
     after Soviet fleet buildup at Cam Ranh Bay. Greater funds, and
     International Military Education Training (IMET). In 1980 Malaysai buys
     88 Skyhawk Jets, and in 1984 the relationship was `upgraded and
     institutionalized' by a bilateral training and consultative group being
     formed.

     .       After 1991 Vietnam withdrawal, Malaysia began to focus more on
     maritime and Spratly claims

     .       Malaysia sought to coop with US and Oz, despite Mahathir's
     opposition to US agenda

     .       In 2002 Najib gave a paper
     http://www.heritage.org/research/lecture/us-malaysia-defense-cooperation
      where he talked about how the US-Malaysia defense coop was an `untold
     story' and well kept secret. Talked about frequent US ship visits; US
     airforce training with Royal Malaysia counterparts, mock battles; US
     Navy SEALS do training in Malay two times per year; US Army does field
     exercises with Malaysian army, whose jungle warfare capabilities are
     renowned and they are nicknamed `whispering death'; and the IMET program
     benefiting lots of defense personnel. US has never turned down a Malay
     request for weapons. 9/11 supposedly galvanized relations like never
     before. US is allowed overlfights, `excellent access' to Malay intel,
     and Malay forces protect US ships in the strait, and teaching other
     ASEAN states how to spot and freeze terrorist assets

     .       Terrorists wanted to topple `secular' regimes and incumbent
     regimes, Malaysia was concerned about Jemaah Islamiyah and Kumpulan
     Mujahidin Malaysia (KMM). after 9/11 Malay made public much of the
     cooperation with the US that had begun much earlier but was kept secret.

     .       Mahathir could crackdown on Muslim political opponents (like
     PAS) by means of the anti-terrorist push post-9/11

      

      

     SOURCES

     http://www.pacom.mil/web/site_pages/media/news.shtml

      

      

      

     SOME RECENT EVENTS

      

     10th Shangri-La Dialogue - IISS Asia Security Summit - Najib gave
     opening address, and Gates and Najib had a direct talk

      

      

     Keynote Address - Dato' Sri Najib Tun Razak

                                        

                                        

                       The 10th IISS Asia Security Summit

                                        

                            The Shangri-La Dialogue

                                        

                                   Singapore 

                              Friday 03 June 2011

                                        

                                Keynote Address

                           Dato' Sri Najib Tun Razak
                            Prime Minister, Malaysia

                                        

                                  As Prepared

                                        

                                        

                                        

     Salam-alaikum and a very good evening.  Mr Teo Chee Hean Acting Prime
     Minister, honourable ministers, defence chiefs, distinguished
     participants, ladies and gentlemen, let me first thank Dr John Chipman
     for his kind words of introduction, and for inviting me to speak with
     you this evening.  I am delighted to be here in Singapore, to be joined
     by so many distinguished government representatives, policy makers,
     business people and opinion leaders - and of course to mark ten years of
     fruitful and productive dialogue here, at the Shangri-La Hotel.  The
     first time I was here, back in 2002, I was Defence Minister.  A lot has
     changed since then.  For one thing, I am now Prime Minister, which I am
     afraid means I get to come between you and your dinner.  

     Ladies and gentlemen, in June 1963 President Kennedy, delivering the
     commencement address at the American University in Washington, spoke at
     length about peace in a thermonuclear age.  He said, `What kind of peace
     do I mean?  What kind of peace do I seek?  Not a Pax Americana enforced
     on the world by American weapons of war, not the peace of the grave or
     the security of the slave.  I am talking about genuine peace, the kind
     of peace that makes life on earth worth living, the kind that enables
     men and nations to grow and to hope and to build a better life for their
     children - not merely peace for Americans, but peace for all men and
     women - not merely peace in our time but peace for all time.'  

     The thing that strikes me most about his words is that, rather than
     succumbing to an expedient vision of world peace, he chose not to
     compromise and to continue to strive for a better world.  Three decades
     later, the end of the Cold War, rather than producing the peace dividend
     we all expected, has instead given rise to a new set of complex,
     multi-dimensional security challenges.  The elimination of Osama bin
     Laden and now the capture of Ratko Mladic serve as a reminder of the
     security threats we face, albeit threats of a different kind to those
     faced by the world back in the 1960s.

     Today, we cannot and we must not return to the old bipolarity of that
     Cold War, an era of stalemate and stand-off that crippled the world for
     far too long.  We have no choice but to rise to these new challenges
     together.  In the 21st century our economies are so integrated and
     interdependent, and production processes are so dispersed across
     borders, that it no longer makes sense for global powers to go to war;
     they simply have too much to lose.  National interests are becoming more
     and more about collective interests, and our task now is to reflect this
     in a multilateralism that is both hard-headedly realistic and
     progressive.  Because the way ahead, I have no doubt, must be built on
     co-operation and not on confrontation; for that, every country, every
     leader here today, must play their part.  

     The cynics thought that Asia and the West could never truly come
     together as a cohesive whole, that we had too little in common, that
     life in Surabaya was simply too far removed from life in San Diego.  The
     last ten years have proved them wrong.  Yes, we come from many cultures
     and we speak many languages but, as US Defence Secretary Robert Gates -
     and I wish him well in his retirement - said in this room last year, the
     Pacific Ocean is not a barrier that divides us but a bridge that unites
     us.

     The United States has long been a modernising and moderating force
     within our region, supporting democratic institutions, improving
     governance and fostering respect for human rights.  Barack Obama has
     described himself as America's first Pacific president, and Secretary of
     State Hillary Clinton has spoken of the need to find strong partners
     here.  Such warm words are welcome, but they are just the latest in a
     long exchange of ideas and views between the United States and Asia.  I
     am pleased that America, and of course Russia, will be taking part in
     the East Asia Summit for the first time later this year.

     Next month will see the 40th anniversary of Henry Kissinger's secret
     mission to China ahead of President Nixon's historic visit in 1972. 
     Coming in the midst of the Cold War, Nixon's visit shocked many in the
     United States.  How could the fervently anti-communist leader of the
     Western world possibly sit down with his ideological adversary?  The
     answer, of course, is that the United States saw in China the potential
     to become a counterweight to the Soviet bloc, but this new alliance went
     much further than that.  Nixon's visit was not just about the United
     States opening itself up to China; it was about China opening itself up
     to the United States.  It is a relationship that has benefited both
     countries ever since, but such productive dialogue can only take place
     if there is an openness to engagement on both sides.

     It would of course be quite wrong to suggest that China's actions in the
     early 1970s were somehow uncharacteristic, that they represented a
     change in stance and attitude towards the wider world.  Since the time
     of the Ming Dynasty, China has been a great and growing power, and
     today, as the focus of the world's economy has shifted from West to
     East, from the nations of the Atlantic Ocean to those of the Pacific,
     China has grown still more assertive, opening up and engaging with its
     neighbours and competitors.  

     We should see this as a cause for optimism rather than concern.  China
     may be expanding - it has enjoyed spectacular economic growth of 9-10% a
     year for the last 20 years - but it is not going to dominate the globe
     in the way the biggest economic forces of the past once did.  In the
     late 1940s, the United States not only had the largest GDP of any
     nation, it also accounted for more than half of the world's wealth. 
     When, as predicted, Chain becomes the world's largest economy in around
     30 years, it is likely to account for less than a quarter of global
     GDP.  Wealth will be much more evenly spread, with the United States,
     Europe and Japan acting as a balance to Beijing's rapid growth.

     Nor should China's growing military capacity cause us undue alarm. 
     Despite rapid increases in Chinese military expenditure, the United
     States will continue to be by far the pre-eminent military power and by
     far the biggest spender.  Minister Liang Guanglie may oversee the
     world's largest standing army, but in Malaysia we know well that China's
     first commitment is to peace.  

     Six hundred years ago the great Chinese admiral Zheng He visited
     Malacca.  He brought with him 300 ships and something like 35,000 troops
     - an armada that could easily have conquered the region, if his heart
     had been set on that course.  Zheng had come not to invade by force of
     arms but to extend the hand of friendship.  One hundred years later the
     Portuguese came with 800 troops and only around a dozen ships and
     conquered Malacca for the next 130 years, but we do not like to talk
     about that.

     Today, China is our partner.  The United States is also our partner.
      And this evening I say clearly to our friends from America, from China,
     Russia, India and beyond: we in ASEAN share your values and your
     aspirations, and we urge you to work with us.  It is not about taking
     sides.  We must replace the old bilateralism of the Cold War not with a
     new bilateralism, but a multilateralism that can rise to the task ahead.

     Because war between nations is no longer the greatest threat scenario in
     the region or the world. Instead, we face a new set of asymmetric and
     non-traditional security challenges: human trafficking, terrorism, drug
     smuggling and nuclear proliferation cannot be resolved in isolation or
     through the old security structures of the past.

     We in ASEAN know this, which is why we have in place a range of security
     structures, not just one.  Intra-Asian trade is now valued at around
     $1 trillion.  Linking our economies together in this way is in itself a
     means of actively reducing the possibility of conflicts.  Trade and
     investment are the important building blocks towards peace.  After all,
     why would you wage war on your biggest market?

     As our economies come together, so do our people.  New communication
     technologies and the advent of low-cost airlines are breaking down
     borders, allowing more people to integrate with their near and
     not-so-near neighbours.  

     In my country, Malaysia, integrating many cultures, tongues and
     religions is simply what we do.  It is what we have done for more than
     half a century since independence.  Out of that unity comes stability,
     security and peace.  My own heritage lies with an ethnic group called
     the Bugis.  Our family tree has many branches, wrapped around the
     islands and peninsulas of Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore - a
     geographical spread that came about in part because of our passion for
     seafaring and exploration, but also because of the way we conducted
     ourselves once we arrived in a new land.  Throughout history races and
     peoples have sought out new territory through conquest and oppression,
     but the Bugis have always taken a different approach -falsafah tiga
     hujung, or the philosophy of the `three tips'.  The first is hujung
     lidah.  The second is hujung anu tu, which I will not translate.  The
     third ishujung keris.  It is one that I believe still resonates today.
     Physical conflict - invasion, violence and war - was always the most
     desperate last resort.  Long before taking up arms, the Bugis would
     first use diplomacy - that's the hujung lidah.  They would talk to their
     neighbours, get to know them, try to come to a mutually acceptable
     conclusion.  The next step involved integration, strengthening bonds
     between the Bugis and the other parties through friendship and family. 
     Sometimes this would literally involve marriage.  That is not quite what
     I am proposing today; for one thing, I already have a lovely wife.  In
     our globalised economy, the financial relationships between countries
     bind us together almost as closely as wedding vows.  

     Today, for example, the same waters that my ancestors crossed a thousand
     years ago, and that Zheng sailed back in the 15th century, are some of
     the most important trade routes in the world.  Every year almost 100,000
     ships travel down the Straits of Malacca and more than a quarter of the
     world's traded goods pass through the South China Sea.  If
     transportation links are the lifeblood of international trade, South
     East Asia has become its beating heart and we have a collective
     responsibility to ensure businesses can operate here in safety and
     security.  That is why Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia are already
     working trilaterally, through the `Eye in the Sky' initiative, to combat
     the menace of piracy in the Straits of Malacca - an effective response
     in comparison to the escalating situation in the Horn of Africa.

     The areas where we need to work together are not confined to trade. 
     Post 11 September we are facing a new and uncharted security landscape
     with multiple threat scenarios.  We must meet those challenges
     comprehensively, with resolve and decisiveness, and with no option off
     the table.  We need to start with every nation playing their part in
     securing their own internal borders.  This must be followed by a
     willingness to work together on a bilateral and multilateral basis.

     Malaysia has and will continue to play its role as a responsible global
     citizen, and we have shown and will continue to show that our commitment
     is not merely rhetorical but is backed by action.  In working to secure
     world peace, Malaysian peacekeepers have served under the umbrella of
     both the United Nations and NATO.  From Somalia to the Balkans,
     Malaysian security personnel have made the ultimate sacrifice in the
     service of global stability.  

     Ours is not simply a peacekeeping role.  Malaysia contributes in many
     ways, sometimes rather unexpected ways - for example in Afghanistan,
     where we are playing our part in the country's rehabilitation by sending
     much-needed female Muslim doctors.  In the fight against global
     terrorism, we have also been an active player, pro-active in ensuring
     that Malaysia becomes neither a hotbed nor a transit point for terrorist
     operations.  And either actively or through the sharing of intelligence
     with regional security apparatus, we have helped with the apprehension
     or elimination of terrorists like Mas Selamat, Dr Azahari and Noordin
     Mat Top.
     In the southern Philippines, Malaysia has put in an international
     monitoring team and acted as an intermediary by hosting peace talks
     between the Philippines government and the Moro Islamic Liberation
     Front.  This has at times been a sensitive issue for us, but we are
     committed to taking the lead in the interests of wider stability and
     peace.  In southern Thailand, we have signalled our willingness to help
     with the socio-economic development of the four provinces with
     substantial Muslim populations.  Bilaterally, we are working with the
     United States to combat crimes like drug trafficking, terrorism and
     fraud; and with Australia, to tackle the issue of asylum seekers and to
     foster stability right across our region.
     Multilaterally, we are working to enforce the UN Security Council
     resolution on the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
     through our new Strategic Trade Act.  I am determined that we will play
     our part as a responsible member of the international and regional
     community and that, in the spirit of the 1995 declaration, we will
     together make ASEAN a nuclear-free zone.

     We simply cannot allow our important work together to be derailed by
     tensions or destabilised by disagreements and disputes.  With Thailand
     and Cambodia currently at the Hague, our region knows only too well how
     deadly such clashes can be.  In this case, there is of course the good
     and bad news.  The bad news is that 16 people lost their lives.  The
     good news is that both sides are now talking.  We all have high hopes
     for an imminent resolution.

     Of course difficulties between neighbours will flare up from time to
     time but, in our region, significant progress has in fact been made in
     settling some of these disputes over the years.   China and Russia were
     able to resolve their land border, at 4,300 kilometres the longest in
     the world, in 2008.  Vietnam and China completed their land border
     demarcation in that same year.
     In Malaysia we have long tried to negotiate our border disputes in a
     spirit of consultation and negotiations.  With Thailand, for example, we
     created a joint development area, with both countries agreeing to share
     mineral resources.  With Singapore, a peaceful and diplomatic appeal to
     the International Court of Justice resulted in an amicable ruling that
     was accepted by both sides.  With Brunei, a solution was found on the
     basis of a mutually beneficial formula, with a production-sharing
     agreement put into place.
     I hope that all border disputes can be resolved in that same spirit of
     mutual respect and co-operation.  I am also optimistic that ASEAN and
     China will soon be able to agree on a more binding code of conduct to
     replace the 2002 Declaration of Conduct in the South China Sea.  The
     overlapping claims in the South China Sea, involving six parties, are
     particularly complex, but they have generally been managed with
     remarkable restraint.  We must never allow our disagreement on this
     issue to escalate beyond the diplomatic realm.  All parties must remain
     steadfast in their resolve to find a peaceful resolution to this
     dispute.  Yes, while I remain fully committed to the common ASEAN
     position in terms of our engagement with China on the South China Sea, I
     am equally determined to ensure our bilateral relationship remains
     unaffected and, in fact, continues to go from strength to strength.  
     This is the way forward: dialogue, engagement, consensus.  Those are the
     values enshrined in the declaration of the Zone of Peace, Freedom and
     Neutrality signed by the founding ASEAN member states in 1971, when my
     father was Prime Minister of Malaysia, and in the Treaty of Amity and
     Co-operation since then.

     Let me now share with you my thoughts on six practical principles that
     might underpin the notion of effective co-operation in our region. 
     Firstly, it is extremely important for such multi-state engagement to
     fully recognise the role of each member state, rich or poor, small or
     big.  Secondly, we must appreciate that every member country is
     different in terms of history, culture and its economic position. 
     Thirdly, confidence-building measures need to be put in place to foster
     deeper dialogue and understanding between partners.  Fourthly, we need a
     web of different forms of security architecture, not only regional and
     with the co-operation of extra-regional powers but also within the
     context of bilateral arrangements.  Fifthly, there need to be
     institutional relationships - relationships not just at the highest
     levels, but also between our different institutions.  

     A significant degree of regional and global co-operation already exists,
     and building upon this will draw the major players closer towards each
     other.  Indeed, regional processes such as the ASEAN Regional Forum and
     the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus 8 are already actively
     exploring co-operation in disaster relief and humanitarian assistance. 
     I would like to call today for the establishment of a regional
     humanitarian body, a new rapid-response team with the ability to respond
     to disaster when it strikes.  These activities are especially relevant
     because they foster direct interaction between the defence and security
     agencies of different countries, going beyond formal declarations and
     high-level dialogues to coordinated operations on the ground.  

     Establishing the ARF was one of the most far-sighted and bold
     initiatives our regional community has taken to strengthen peace and
     foster stability - inclusive in nature and embracing countries of all
     political hues.  We have been a little slow, though, in making progress
     on our agenda of building confidence, security contacts and of
     preventive diplomacy.  It is clear that the ARF, complemented by the
     ADMM+8, has to make greater haste and show stronger political resolve on
     all sides, but in building new alliances and forging new security
     contacts we should not forget the old ones, like the Fire Power Defence
     Arrangement.

     As I said earlier, we should not be surprised when we encounter
     problems, which brings me to my sixth and final point: that far from
     letting these difficulties knock us off course, we must build on all we
     have achieved together to not only manage such disputes, but to resolve
     them.  Now more than ever, we need to focus on the bigger picture and
     not become blinkered by our own concerns.

     In Islam we have a concept, wasatiyyah, which means moderation or
     `justly balanced'.  It is this spirit of moderation that has made
     Malaysia the country it is today, and that I believe will now be the key
     to overcoming the challenges we face together as a region.  That is why,
     at the United Nations last year, I called for a new global movement of
     the moderates that would see government, business and religious leaders
     around the world face down extremism wherever it is found.  Just as you
     cannot make the world a better place by passing a law proclaiming that
     it will be better, you cannot rid the world of extreme views simply by
     making them illegal.  I have no doubt we can best foster tolerance and
     understanding not by silencing the voice of hatred, but by making the
     voice of reason louder and louder.  

     Since our discussions and deliberations 10 years ago, this forum has
     always been a lot more than a talking shop.  It has been about fostering
     clear-headed, practical security and defence co-operation.  I believe
     that the movement of the moderates can be a similarly constructive
     expression of our common values.  The great challenge before us as
     nations is how to secure the blessings of liberty and prosperity for our
     people in an uncertain world.  How do we chart a better future for our
     children?  How do we advance the welfare of our people and solve the
     great problems of our times?  The answers lie in coming together and in
     collectively bringing our will and resources to bear.  

     As responsible leaders, we cannot and should not squander the
     opportunity before us to help build a new world order, where a just and
     equitable peace predicated on the rule of law is the norm rather than
     the exception.  We know that governments that do not practice good
     governance are existing on borrowed time.  We must ensure peace and
     stability at all levels - national, regional and global.  To achieve
     that goal, let us continue to engage each other in a constant dialogue
     for, in the words of Winston Churchill, `jaw-jaw is better than
     war-war'.  I thank you.
     http://www.iiss.org/conferences/the-shangri-la-dialogue/shangri-la-dialogue-2011/speeches/keynote-address/dato-sri-najib-tun-raza/

      

      

     Military ties between the United States and Malaysia remain strong and
     will continue to strengthen, said US Pacific Command commander Admiral
     Robert F. Willard.

     .       Willard said he discussed matters of mutual interest with
     Malaysian Armed Forces chief Jeneral Tan Sri Azizan Ariffin.

     .       \"We explored new ways in which armed forces of the two countries
     can help contribute to security in the Asia Pacific region,\" he told
     reporters after delivering a talk entitled \"Securing the Maritime
     Commons: The Role of Regional Navies\" at a hotel here yesterday.

     .       \"I think it's important that Malaysia decides how and where the
     military co-operation expands and improves,\" said Willard who was here
     [Kuala Lumpur] as a speaker at the 25th Asia-Pacific Roundtable
     yesterday.

     .       Willard said there were many areas that the Malaysian armed
     forces could contribute regionally beyond maritime security

     .       He pointed out that Malaysia's participation in the
     multinational \"Cobra Gold\" exercise in Thailand at an increased level as
     a positive move.

      

     Speech to 25th Asia-Pacific Roundtable; \"Securing the Maritime Commons:
     The Role of Regional Navies\"

     By Admiral Robert F. Willard, Commander, U.S. Pacific Command 
     Kuala Lumpur Malaysia

     .       
     CONSIDER THE ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM, THAT TODAY REGULARLY LEADS 
     MULTI-NATIONAL SECURITY EXERCISES TO \"PROMOTE PEACE AND SECURITY THROUGH
     DIALOGUE AND COOPERATION IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC\" EVOLUTIONS THAT INVOLVE A
     HOST OF REGIONAL MILITARIES, AND NAVIES, AND THOUSANDS OF PARTICIPANTS
     INCLUDING U.S. PACIFIC COMMAND.

     .        AND IN RECENT YEARS, HAS FOCUSSED ON THE VERY TOPIC WE'RE GOING
     TO DISCUSS TODAY SECURITY IN THE MARITIME COMMONS.

     .        AS A TESTAMENT TO THE IMPORTANCE THE U.S. HAS ATTACHED TO
     ASEAN, WE NOW HAVE A DEDICATED AMBASSADOR IN DAVID CARDEN ... WHO WE
     HOPE WILL BE EMBRACED BY THE ASEAN COMMUNITY

     .        [Straight of Malacca's importance. ] AND YET, IT'S JUST ONE OF
     A DOZEN STRATEGIC STRAITS IN THE ASIA PACIFIC. ALL IMPORTANT FOR THE SEA
     LANES THAT PASS THROUGH THEM ... ALL OF WHICH HAVE BEEN FOUGHT OVER
     THROUGHOUT HISTORY. ALL OF WHICH MUST BE MAINTAINED SECURE IF THE
     COMMERCE UPON WHICH WE DEPEND IS TO MOVE GOODS, UNIMPEDED.

      

     .        I MIGHT OFFER THAT INCREASINGLY IN THE 21ST CENTURY, SECURITY
     IN ALL DOMAINS - LAND, AIR, SPACE, CYBERSPACE AND MARITIME - WILL BE
     NECESSARY TO ENABLE THE FREEDOMS OF ACTION THAT ARE FUNDAMENTAL TO
     GLOBAL PROSPERITY IN THIS ERA.

      

     .        DOMAIN SECURITY - PARTICULARLY MARITIME SECURITY - IS THE
     QUINTESSENTIAL COMMON CAUSE  AMONG NATIONS.

     .        NOT ONLY FOR THEIR NAVIES BUT, FOR THE ABUNDANCE OF AGENCIES
     THAT CONTRIBUTE TO SECURITY, ACROSS A BROAD RANGE OF CHALLENGES.

     .        COAST GUARDS OR THEIR EQUIVALENT, WITH LAW ENFORCEMENT DUTIES,
     IN PARTICULAR, CAN CHALLENGE ILLEGAL ENCROACHMENT AND CRIMINAL
     ACTIVITIES THAT NAVIES MAY NOT.

     .        ATTAINMENT OF MARITIME DOMAIN AWARENESS - ESSENTIAL TO SECURITY
     OPERATIONS - REQUIRES WHOLE-OF-GOVERNMENT COLLABORATION BOTH WITHIN AND
     ACROSS OUR NATIONS.

     .        ACROSS GOVERNMENTS, JUDICIARY, COMMERCE, TRANSPORTATION,
     TREASURY AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS AGENCIES ALL PLAY KEY ROLES IN ASSURING
     MARITIME SECURITY.

     .       
     AND LAST, BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST, TO DISPUTES EITHER ON, OR PROXIMATE
     TO THE MARITIME SEA LANES THAT COULD OTHERWISE FLASH INTO CONFLICT AND
     DISRUPT THE PEACEFUL FLOWS OF COMMERCE THAT MUST BE SECURED.

     .        ASSOCIATIONS SUCH AS ASEAN PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE IN THIS.

     .        ASEAN AND OTHER MULTI-NATION FORUMS SUCH AS SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE
     PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR NATIONS TO FRAME THE CHALLENGES, SEEK COMMON
     AND EFFECTIVE APPROACHES TO THEM, AND CONDUCT RESPECTFUL DISCOURSE WHEN
     NATIONS DISAGREE.

     .       
     I MENTIONED THE SUCCESSFUL MULTI-NATIONAL EVENTS THE ASEAN REGIONAL
     FORUM REGULARLY LEADS.

     .        IN MARCH THE FORUM LED A DISASTER RESPONSE EXERCISE IN
     INDONESIA, WHICH WAS THE SECOND IN A SERIES THAT BEGAN IN THE
     PHILIPPINES IN 2009.

     .        THIS YEAR'S EVENT STRENGTHENED CONFIDENCE AND INCREASED
     INTEROPERABILITY AMONG THE CIVIL AND MILITARY AGENCIES AND ADVANCED
     REGIONAL CAPACITIES TO PROVIDE COORDINATED AND EFFECTIVE DISASTER
     RESPONSE.

     .        MULTI-NATIONAL PLANNING AND TRAINING EVENTS LIKE THIS ARE
     REMINDERS THAT THE NATIONS OF THE ASIA-PACIFIC ASSUME  A SECURE AND
     ACCESSIBLE MARITIME DOMAIN TO EFFECTIVELY PREPARE FOR, OR RESPOND TO
     NATURAL DISASTERS.

     .        AS WAS DEMONSTRATED EARLIER IN THE YEAR IN JAPAN, FOLLOWING THE
     CONFLUENCE OF EARTHQUAKES, TSUNAMI, AND NUCLEAR ACCIDENTS.

     .        THE INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE - BY A HUNDRED NATIONS AND ALMOST
     TWO DOZEN MILITARIES - CLEARLY DEMONSTRATED THE IMPORTANCE OF
     COOPERATION AND INTEROPERABILITY.

     .        IN CLOSING, I'D ASK YOU TO IMAGINE AN ASIA-PACIFIC WHERE
     SECURITY PREVAILS ACROSS THE GLOBAL COMMONS AND WHERE ACCESS IS
     UNINHIBITED.

     .        A REGION WHERE THERE ARE NO TERRITORIAL DISPUTES OR, IF ONE
     ARISES, IT IS RESOLVED PEACEFULLY AND EQUITABLY WITHIN AN AGREED UPON
     FRAMEWORK.

     .      
     http://www.pacom.mil/web/Site_Pages/Media/News_2011/05/31-Speech-by-adm_willard-25thAsia-pacific-roundtable.shtml

      

      

     Obama admin warm-up to Malaysia --
     http://www.eastwestcenter.org/fileadmin/stored/pdfs/apb081.pdf

     .       Obama as `pacific president' and reaching out to Muslims

     .       US stepping up engagement with ASEAN (treaty of amity/coop, plus
     sending ambassador), joining ADMM+ , and EAS

     .       Obama-Najib bilateral at Nuclear Security Summit

     .       Clinton and Gates visit - 2010

     o    Met with Dep PM Muhyiddin Yassin

     o    Spoke as Islamic center to talk about Malaysia being a leader of
     Islamic modernity

     o    Expand cooperation on education, medicine, new tech

     o    Complained about Anwar

     .       Malaysia send 40-member medical team to Afghanistan at request
     of Afghan govt.

     .       Malaysia passes Strategic Trade Act 2010 - halt transshipment of
     WMD-related goods

     .       Malaysia joins TPP talks

      

     TIMELINE OF RECENT COOPERATION

     May 2011

     USS Avenger Builds Ties with Malaysian Navy -
     http://www.pacom.mil/web/Site_Pages/Media/News_2011/05/16-USSAvenger-builds-ties-w_malaysian_navy.shtml

     .       Malaysian officers Lt. Lim Kim Tat and Lt. Mohd Hafiz bin Atan
     had the opportunity to observe Avenger Sailors in a sea and anchor
     evolution, observe an integrated training drill, learn about mine
     sweeping operations and see a traditional U.S. Navy \"crossing the line\"
     ceremony.

     .       Ensign Garth Thomas gave the two Malaysian naval officers a tour
     of the ship's mine sweeping capabilities and discussed with Tat and Atan
     how the Malaysian navy performs mine sweeping operations.

     .       Throughout several damage control and integrated training
     drills, Avenger officers and enlisted personnel helped explain the
     significance of specific methods the U.S. Navy uses in training Sailors.

     .       According to State Department officials, Malaysia has made
     regional cooperation a central piece of it's foreign policy. Cooperation
     between the 7th Fleet and Malaysian navy in anti-piracy efforts has
     contributed to the recent decline in pirate attacks in the Straits of
     Malacca,

     .        

      

      

     May 2011 - joint training for Malaysian and Thai maritime enforcement
     officers - http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsindex.php?id=585371

      

     April 2011

      

     http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/2011/04/29/navy-assures-sabahans-of-safe-coasts/
     KOTA KINABALU: The waters surrounding Sabah are now safe and free from
     piracy or terrorist attacks, according to the Royal Malaysian Navy
     (TLDM) Regional Two Commander First Admiral Anuwi Hassan.

     .       \"Although Sabah is safe from any threats, we will continue to
     deploy our men to strategic locations which we believe may be used by
     pirates or terrorist for their activities.

     .        Anuwi was speaking to the press during the 77th Navy Day
     celebration that was held at the Sepanggar Naval Base here on Wednesday.

     .        Fishermen, especially on the east coast of the state where
     Sabah shares a maritime border with the Philippines, have frequently
     complained of acts of piracy and robberies at sea for several years now.

     .        Early last year, two businessmen operating a business on an
     island were taken hostage by whom the government authorities labelled as
     `bandits' but security experts said could be linked to terrorist
     activities in the Southern Philippines.

     .        They were released at the end of last year.

     .        Anuwi also said the TLDM will receive six Littoral Combatant
     Ships and two training ships under the 10th Malaysian Plan. He said the
     vessels would be built in the country and are expected to be ready by
     2013.

     .        \"Some of the ships will be based here at the Sepanggar Naval
     Based,\" he said, adding that more assets are needed to strengthen and
     protect the country from any threats or conflicts.

      

      

      

     Feb 2011

     .       USS Abraham Lincoln - Aircraft from USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72)
     Carrier Strike Group participated in a joint aerial combat training
     exercise with the Royal Malaysian Air Force, Feb 14.

      

     .       F/A-18 Hornets and Super Hornets from Carrier Air Wing (CVW)2
     joined Malaysian SU-30 and FA-18D Hornets to train in multiple combat
     scenarios. Events ranged from single aircraft engaging single aircraft,
     all the way to complex multi-aircraft combat scenarios.

      

     .       With the Malaysian SU-30s maneuvering at speeds estimated close
     to MACH 1, training was aggressive and realistic.

      

     .       \"Air Combat Training gives our aviators a chance to match their
     skills against the skills of some formidable foreign aviators and their
     modern aircraft. An added benefit is promoting regional partnerships and
     improving maritime security,\" said Lt. Luke Swain of CVW-2.

      

     .       The United States and Malaysia share a diverse and expanding
     partnership and cooperate closely on a number of security matters,
     including counterterrorism, maritime domain awareness, and regional
     stability.

     .       The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is currently in the
     U.S. 7th Fleet's area of responsibility as part of a routine deployment

      

     Feb 2011 -- Malaysia will for the first time take part in the annual
     Cobra Gold joint military exercise this year, in which nearly 10,000
     soldiers of six countries will participate, a military source said.

     .        Cobra Gold 2011, the 30th of its kind, will be carried out
     between Feb 7-18 in northern Thailand under the jurisdiction of the 3rd
     Army Region.

     .        13 soldiers from Malaysia

     .       Malaysia, formerly an observer, will join the exercise for the
     first time as a participant in the command post exercise (CPX). 

     .       In the last part of Cobra Gold 2011 there will be a landing
     exercise under live fire at Sattahip in Chon Buri province by  Thai and
     US marines.  The exercise is codenamed PHIBTRAEX.

     .         

      

     Jan 2011 - PORT KLANG, Malaysia - USS Carl Vinson (CVN) and Carrier Air
     Wing (CVW) 17 Sailors visited

      

      

 --
 Matt Gertken
 Senior Asia Pacific analyst
 US: +001.512.744.4085
 Mobile: +33(0)67.793.2417
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com


 --
 Matt Gertken
 Senior Asia Pacific analyst
 US: +001.512.744.4085
 Mobile: +33(0)67.793.2417
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-06-08 13:33:05",1,"2012-03-01 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/72358_re-discussion-us-malaysia-evolving-strategic-cooperation-.html","matt.gertken@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
72920,"Re: [MESA] [TACTICAL] WikiLeaks: U.S. saw Israeli firm's rise in
 Latin America as a threat
","   The proliferation of Israeli front companies is the reason Israel is the #
   1 FCI threat. 

   On 6/1/2011 2:10 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

     WASHINGTON - A security company led by the former head of operations for
     the Israeli military made such inroads into Latin America a few years
     ago that U.S. diplomats saw it as a security risk and moved to thwart
     the company's expansion, U.S. diplomatic cables show.

     The diplomats' efforts were made easier when an interpreter for the
     Israeli firm, Global CST, was caught peddling classified Colombian
     Defense Ministry documents to Marxist guerrillas seeking to topple the
     state, one cable said.

     Still, the ability of the Israeli security consultancy to obtain
     contracts in Colombia, Peru and Panama in rapid succession speaks to the
     prowess of retired Israeli military officers in peddling security
     know-how amid perceptions that they'd bring better results than official
     U.S. government assistance.

     At one point, Panama's intelligence chief threatened to rely more
     heavily on the Israelis out of anger that U.S. officials wouldn't tap
     the phones of the president's political enemies, according to then
     cables. U.S. officials countered that such an arrangement would threaten
     all security cooperation with Panama, and the Panamanians backed down.

     Colombia was the first Latin nation to sign a contract with Global CST,
     doing so in late 2006, according to one cable, the same year its
     founder, Maj. Gen. Israel Ziv, retired as head of the operations
     directorate of the Israel Defense Forces.

     Ziv \"was a personal acquaintance of then-Minister of Defense Juan Manuel
     Santos,\" the cable said. Santos is now Colombia's president.

     Ziv's consulting firm pledged \"a strategic assessment\" that would devise
     a plan to defeat \"internal terrorist and criminal organizations by
     2010,\" the cable, sent in late 2009, said. The exercise was named
     \"Strategic Leap.\"

     \"Over a three-year period, Ziv worked his way into the confidence of
     former Defense Minister Santos by promising a cheaper version of USG
     (U.S. government) assistance without our strings attached,\" the cable
     said.

     Colombia began working with a variety of retired and active duty Israeli
     officers \"with special operations and military intelligence
     backgrounds,\" another cable said. By 2007, 38 percent of Colombia's
     foreign defense purchases were going to Israel, it added.

     With a foot firmly in the door in Colombia, Ziv roamed the region, going
     next to Peru, a coca-producing nation that also faced security
     challenges.

     Ziv told Peruvian authorities that Global CST's had played an advisory
     role in a spectacular jungle raid on a rebel camp in Colombia a year
     earlier that freed former presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt,
     three U.S. military contractors and 11 Colombian police and soldiers.
     Colombia denies that Global CST played a role in the raid.

     The Israeli firm signed a one-year contract worth $9 million to help
     Peru defeat the Maoist Sendero Luminoso insurgency \"once and for all\" in
     that nation's remote Apurimac and Ene river valleys, according to
     another U.S. cable.

     When Global CST approached Panama's government about expanding on an
     initial contract, red flags went up at the U.S. Embassy there.

     In early 2010, an Embassy cable to Washington said Panama had already
     paid Global CST for a small security study but the nation's intelligence
     chief, Olmedo Alfaro, was threatening to rely more heavily on the
     Israelis out of anger that U.S. officials would not tap the phones of
     the president's political enemies.

     \"Alfaro is increasingly open about his agenda to replace U.S. law
     enforcement and security support with Israelis and others,\" the cable
     said, adding that the move \"bodes ill\" for quelling narcotics activity
     and crime in Panama.

     U.S. officials told the Panamanians that they would limit security
     cooperation and intelligence sharing if private consultants from a third
     nation were involved.

     \"In a meeting with then-U.S. Ambassador to Panama Barbara Stephenson,
     Panamanian Vice President Juan Carlos Varela said that the government
     \"would not let Israeli influence damage the U.S.-Panama relationship,\" a
     cable said.

     President Ricardo Martinelli \"was similarly taken aback, and emphasized
     that he did not want to endanger relations with the USG, saying 'We
     don't want to change friends,'\" the cable said.

     Adding to the pressure on Panama was news that Colombia's relations with
     Global CST had soured. In a meeting in late 2009 with the then-U.S.
     Ambassador to Colombia, William Brownfield, national police chief Oscar
     Naranjo complained that the company had turned out to be a \"disaster,\" a
     cable said.

     The same cable reported that then-Defense Minister Gabriel Silva
     overruled a planned Colombian army purchase of Israeli-made Hermes-450
     unmanned aerial vehicles, in part because of the nation's \"mixed\"
     experience with Global CST.

     Silva is now Colombia's ambassador to the U.S. His office didn't respond
     to several written and telephone messages for comment.

     Colombia's souring on the Israeli firm was partly because of U.S. rules
     that barred intelligence sharing, but also because Colombian police told
     them in February 2008 \"that a Global CST interpreter, Argentine-born
     Israeli national Shai Killman, had made copies of classified Colombian
     Defense Ministry documents in an unsuccessful attempt to sell them to
     the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) through contacts in
     Ecuador and Argentina,\" the cable said.

     The pilfered documents allegedly contained information about top
     criminals the Colombians were targeting, the cable said.

     \"Ziv denied this attempt and sent Killman back to Israel,\" it added.

     In early April, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz reached Killman and
     reported that he said he \"was being 'slandered' and no such incident
     ever took place.\"

     The cable went on to say that Ziv's proposals for Colombia \"seem
     designed more to support Israeli equipment and services sales than to
     meet in-country needs.\" It added that Colombia realized that \"their
     deals are not as good as advertised.\"

     It wasn't just in Latin America where Ziv and his company pledged quick
     fix-its for acute security problems. The company, based in a city east
     of Tel Aviv, would also work in Togo, Guinea, Gabon and Nigeria, as well
     as in Eastern Europe. Last year, the Israeli government fined Global CST
     for negotiating to sell weapons and military training to Guinea's
     military junta.

     Read more:
     http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/05/09/113919/wikileaks-us-saw-israeli-firms.html#ixzz1O3LbVCyR
","2011-06-01 21:13:10",1,"2012-03-01 23:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/72920_re-mesa-tactical-wikileaks-u-s-saw-israeli-firm-s-rise-in.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:mesa@stratfor.com","mesa@stratfor.com,tactical@stratfor.com",""
75005,"INSIGHT - TURKEY - civil-military relations, US-Turkey and Turkey-Israel defense relations
","   PUBLICATION: background/analysis - do not share specific insight with
   other Turkish sources (dont want to get source in trouble)
   ATTRIBUTION: N/A
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Turkish air force captain in DC for training on F-35
   joint strike fighter
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: high
   SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:  secure
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
   Including a lot of background here to provide context, please read through
   to get the full gist
   BACKGROUND -- I was the captain's guest to an event at the Turkish embassy
   to commemorate the death of Ataturk. There I met with a lot of people (who
   were all familiar with and proud of stratfor), including the ambassador
   and defense attache. The captain's good friend is the Chief Inspector
   (also pretty young, around 30), who basically accompanies the ambassador
   everywhere and is responsible for security of the embassy and residence.
   Coming from a security/intel/military background, he was keeping an eye on
   me and asking me a lot of questions throughout the night. His wife has
   been working in the ministry of defense. Both of them went out to dinner
   with us after the event. The Chief Inspector was telliing the captain
   half-jokingly to not reveal everything and cut him off when he was telling
   me about the F-35 simulation he's doing next week in Ohio. I suspect the
   CI came out to dinner to keep an eye on him.
   CIVIL-MILITARY DIVIDE - My main goal for the night was to get a better
   read on civil-military relations in Turkey, and I definitely got some
   interesting perspective. One thing I found really interesting was how
   practically everyone I spoke with, particularly in the military, would ask
   me very bluntly \"what do you think about Turkish foreign policy?  do you
   think we are doing a good job? Is it strong?\"   Everyone seemed very
   concerned about what others think about how Turkey is behaving. The
   military is visibly very uncomfortable with the manner in which Turkey is
   conducting its foreign policy. They like the idea of Turkey's influence
   expanding, and they are fiercely proud of that, BUT they are very visibly
   nervous about the Islamic overtones of the strategy.
   There is an extremely noticeable divide between the civilians and military
   personnel. The ambassador would intentionally avoid speaking at length
   with the military guys and was on occasion a bit rude to them, and when
   the ambassador was out of sight, the military guys would criticize him,
   saying he doesn't understand that the military is the core of the nation
   and doesn't even have 'real diplomatic skills'. One even told me, 'look at
   the way he talks, he can barely hold a real conversation'. A rumor was
   going around that night that the ambassador was soon to be replaced, but
   the Counselor at the embassy (who is a huge fan of stratfor) said that's
   all gossip and that the ambassador will be staying for a long time. 
   I brought up the issue of the army colonel who is now being tried in a
   civilian court for attempting a coup against the government. This is a
   huge issue in Turkey right now. The Ergenekon probe is understood to be a
   tool that AKP uses to keep military in check. This is why (As we wrote in
   our analysis) it was extremely suspicious that a letter with the alleged
   signature of the colonel implicating him in a coup plot magically emerged
   right when the military started making noise over the AKP's moves to
   accept the surrender of PKK militants. The military is very uncomfortable
   with the Kurdish initiative. As one military officer put it to me, how
   would you Americans feel if Obama all of a sudden agreed to reintegrate
   the al Qaeda 9/11 bombers into American society?
   US- TURKEY RELATIONS - The Chief Inspector asked me point-blank - \"What do
   you know about Ergenekon?\" I told him I think it's a tool the AKP uses to
   clip the military's wings. Arrests of generals and colonels like this
   would be unheard of years ago. He then asked, \"you don't think they have
   outside support?\" I asked, \"from whom?\" He shrugged and said, who knows?
   the American government?\"  In this (rather tense conversation), I
   definitely got the feeling that these military guys are deeply suspicious
   that the US is aiding the AKP in circumscribing the military's powers.
   Later, when the chief inspector wasn't there, the captain opened up after
   a few drinks and said that they believe the US wants to work with the
   Turkish military, BUT that the US wants to \"manipulate\" the Turkish
   military, ie. keep it weak so it can follow the US agenda in the region.
   He said this in all seriousness, and it reminded me of what he had said in
   our last meeting about how the US was holding back critical intelligence
   on PKK in northern Iraq when he was conducting those bombing raids. In
   short, you can definitely sense a lot of distrust that the Turkish
   military has for the US right now.
   ******* At the end of the night (chief inspector and wife were gone,
   captain had a few drinks and was in confessional mode), I pressed him to
   explain to me why the military isn't doing more then to counter the AKP if
   they're so obviously uncomfortable with the direction things are going.
   Every military person I talked to admitted that under AKP, the military's
   powers have weakened considerably. His response was that his country's
   generals are excellent actors. When i asked what he meant, he said they
   say all the right things and make it appear that they are really doing
   everything they can to block the AKP's moves on these various issue when
   in reality, they do nothing. He said, 'look, I am an officer right now.
   And right now in the Turkish government and military, you have the scum of
   the earth that have risen to the top\" In other words, he was saying that
   everyone at the top were corrupt, had lost their vision. He went on about
   how Gul's and Erdogan's families have all this money that no one can
   explain and also criticized the generals who had become \"too comfortable.\"
    He said if several years from now i become a general i hope i will not
   lose sight of what's right for Turkey. He even mentioned the potential for
   a \"revolution\" (pretty risky words for a captain). I asked if others like
   him are thinking like that and he said 'i think so' Then after a pause he
   said, \"didn't Ataturk start a revolution?'  We left it at that.
   He also described how there is little the military can do right now. The
   AKP has support of the people and they will have that support as long as
   the economy remains strong. The military can't go against that. He says,
   'what are we going to do? launch a coup d'etat? the 1980 coup in Turkey is
   what created the rise of the AKP. I dont look at causes of coups, i look
   at the results. The AKP is the result of that coup'
   He kept saying that there is no middle class in Turkey and how big of an
   issue that is. Military officers don't get paid nearly as much as they
   should. He said for him he can make $3k/month, but most of his pilots make
   $1500/k...'that's nothing. in the private airlines you can make triple the
   amount. 
   Earlier, we were talking about the AKP's Islamic policies. What I found
   really interesting was how the military officers referred to both AKP and
   Gulen as \"fundamentalists.\" The AKP was describing to me how it is against
   Turkish law to have fundamentalists in the military, so if the military
   brands someone as an Islamist fundamentalist, then the charge against him
   must be approved by the civilian government. but under the AKP, the
   government has rejected the military's attempts to boot out the
   'fundamentalists'. They spoke of an increasing fundamentalist presence in
   the military. This is probably exaggerated, but very eye-opening in terms
   of the military's anxiety toward the AKP.  They did not hide the fact that
   they detest Gulen movement and asked me everything i know about them.
   TURKEY-ISRAEL DEFENSE TIES -- 
   I asked the captain how close Turkish-Israeli defense ties are now given
   the political tensions we've been seeing. He says the ties between the
   military industrial complex are still very strong. Turkey provides the
   money for the research, the Israelis develop it and then they sell it for
   10x the amount. Not a bad business.
   To get a better sense of Turkish-Israeli cooperation, I asked again about
   the Israeli strike on the SYrian nuclear site in 2007. He insists that
   Turkey was not notified of the strike beforehand and that he had a
   discussion with the air force chief of staff the day it happened. Without
   a doubt, Turkey did not know about it. I guess I appeared doubtful because
   after hesitating a bit he said that that the Israeli jets flew in Turkey's
   blind spot. I asked him to explain, and he said that they had a hole in
   their air defense, which Israel exploited. Now, he says, that's fixed and
   they deploy forces every 15 days to patrol the area. 
   The captain will be in Ohio next week for simulation training on the F-35.
   He is very frustrated not being able to have more fly time and loves to
   get into technical detail in explaining what he does (so nate, if we have
   any technical questions, he's our man). he described how costly it is for
   them to maintain their couresies (i probably am way off on what this term
   is or how it's spelled), but essentially he was talking about how every
   F-16 flight is $15k and the cost of dropping munitions, etc, and how they
   have to fly with a co-pilot if they haven't flown in 6 mo. v. 1 yr, etc.
   INTERESTING OBSERVATIONS
   Turkey is a country full of contradictions. You see it in everything. For
   example, even as the Chief Inspector (who comes from a military
   background) was telling me how much he dislikes his boss (the ambassador),
   he would refer to the ambassador as his father when we were driving past
   the residence and he wanted to show me where 'his father lives'. Another
   example -- the air force captain would tell me privately that he is Alevi,
   his father is a Kurd, his grandmother was raised by Armenians and his
   cousin is a Kurdish Jew, but first and foremost he is always Turkish, no
   question. He would try to explain to me how intermarriage between Kurds
   and Turks is common, but people dont talk about it. He said specifically
   that others in the embassy don't know this about him and asked me not to
   say anything about it. Indeed, when we were with the Chief Inspector or
   anyone else, the captain would noticeably amplify the anti-Kurdish,
   anti-Armenian, pro-Turkish nationalist rhetoric.  \"There is no such thing
   as Armenian genocide\", \"You know a Kurd? Where? Can I kill him?\", etc.
    They also dont like the idea of other languages having influence on the
   'pure' Turkish language...any similarities to Arabic or Farsi were viewed
   as polluting the language. And according to them, the Kurds dont even have
   a real language.
   Also, dear God, Ataturk is EVERYWHERE. I had never seen such gigantic
   statues of Ataturk's face everywhere I walked in that embassy. It's
   amazing how much Turks idolize their founding father. The event began with
   a historical tribute to him. When people would refer to Ataturk, others
   would always correct anyone if they didn't say the full title - Mustafa
   Kemal PASHA Ataturk. I saw women wearing huge gold medallions around their
   necks with Ataturk's face engraved. The captain told me how he has a
   speech by Ataturk on his computer that he listens to that still brings
   tears to his eyes and how his mother cries over Ataturk to this day. When
   we were driving away from the embassy in the Chief Inspector's car, the CI
   was saying 'look to your left, look to your right. what statues do you
   see?  Washington, Gandhi, Franklin, etc.). he then said, we keep our
   Ataturk statues inside the embassy, where is safe and where we can protect
   him.
   Fascinating culture. Can't wait to go to Turkey.
","2009-11-14 20:08:26",1,"2012-03-10 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/75005_insight-turkey-civil-military-relations-us-turkey-and-turkey.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
75703,"INSIGHT - Lebanon - Plans to sabotage elections?
","     PUBLICATION: background/analysis
     ATTRIBUTION: N/A
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: First part is a Lebanese government source, second
     part is from hezbollah Media source
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  C
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
     SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION: 
     SPECIAL HANDLING: n/a

   XXXXX claims that Israel has ordered the execution of the \"migration of
   the swallows\" operation. This means ordering her agents in Lebanon to exit
   the country immediately. He says most Israeli agents in Lebanon have
   already sought refuge in Cyprus, following the crackdown by Lebanese
   internal security forces on Israeli informers.

   Another source XXXX ridicules these claims. He says the Future Trend of
   Saad Hariri appears to be up to no good. He insists that the HZ-led
   opposition will secure a majority in the forthcoming parliamentary
   elections. Therefore, the Future Trend has a complelling reason to
   obstruct the elections. The best way to do it, in my source's judgement,
   would be to sabotage the elections by planning a significant security
   breach and then blame it on the Israelis. My source says this explains the
   repeated feverish announcements by the government that its security forces
   are dismantling one Israeli espionage network after another. My source
   says HZ is determined to see to it that the elections take place as
   scheduled.
","2009-05-21 18:18:07",1,"2012-03-14 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/75703_insight-lebanon-plans-to-sabotage-elections-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
76281,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - GREECE - Situation is evolving
","   More from my contact, I also agree on the bolded parts

   Latest developments. No co-operation! 
   Papandreou just declared a reshuffling of the government tomorrow -and a
   vote of confidence!
   He  may get the vote of confidence-marginally -and will count that MPs
   that did not topple the government will not abstain from votting the new
   measurew a few days later. Risky business and -this is what is important
   medium term- right now there is widespread doubt about the ability of any
   PASOK governement to implement the measures.
   Difficult to predict what happens next. As you may understand by now, this
   is GREEK politics, like no other! Most likely the outcome of this monkeing
   will not be nice.
   But IMF signaled today (according to FT and our own info) that they are
   going to give their side of the money for the 5th installment by early
   July, even if there is no concrete new package of help for Greece. In
   other words EU-IMF are willing to do almost whatever it takes so that we
   dont go into default right now.
   On the other hand - accidents can happen in such a big goatfuck as this
   one. 
   Best regards- and excuse the french 

   On 6/15/11 10:18 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     Actually these are much better, organized by most recent at top

     PM and ND leader discuss all-party government, sources claim
         15 Jun 2011 (google says about 26 mins ago)
     http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43171
     Prime Minister George Papandreou held talks with main opposition New
     Democracy leader Antonis Samaras on the telephone on Wednesday, after a
     round of telephone calls with the leaders of the other political parties
     in Parliament. Their conversation lasted roughly 20 minutes.
      
     While an earlier official announcement by ND had refused to disclose the
     content of their talks before Papandreou had expressed his position,
     unnamed sources within the party said that the prime minister had
     described the situation as extremely difficult and that he was prepared
     to consider either an all-party government or a broader alliance
     government.
      
     The same sources said that Samaras did not reject the proposal but made
     it clear that this could not work with Papandreou as prime minister. To
     this, always according to ND sources, Papandreou apparently replied that
     he was not concerned about whether he was prime minister.
      
     Other sources within the party announced that there would be a second
     telephone communication between the two men later on Wednesday
     afternoon.
      
     Samaras has apparently made it a condition that there is a substantial
     renegotiation of the terms of the Memorandum for the loans to Greece, in
     order to agree to an all-party government.
      
     The ND leader, who has been in continuous contact with his closest aides
     since the morning, is expected to head to his party's headquarters in a
     short while. (ANA)

     PM talks with Samaras on the phone
         15 Jun 2011 (google says about 1 hour ago)
     http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43169

     Prime Minister George Papandreou held talks with main opposition New
     Democracy leader Antonis Samaras on the telephone on Wednesday, after a
     round of telephone calls with the leaders of the other political parties
     in Parliament.
      
     Their conversation lasted roughly 20 minutes and ND refused to reveal
     any information concerning their talks before the prime minister
     addresses the public.
      
     Samaras, who has been in continuous contact with his closest aides since
     the morning, was expected to head to his party's headquarters after the
     conversation with Papandreou. (ANA)

     Tsipras calls for immediate elections in phone call with PM
         15 Jun 2011 (google says about 2 hours ago)
     http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43163

     Coalition of the Radical Left (Syriza parliamentary alliance)
     parliamentary group leader Alexis Tsipras on Wednesday called for
     immediate general elections as the only way out for the country, during
     a telephone discussion with Prime Minister George Papandreou, according
     to party sources.
      
     Papandreou called Tsipras after an extraordinary meeting with President
     of the Republic Karolos Papoulias earlier in the day, in the context of
     a round of phone calls to all political party leaders.
      
     Sources said Papandreou reiterated his government's and his own personal
     determination that the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy Framework programme
     will be passed by parliament, to which Tsipras replied that Syriza
     remained firm in its stance that the Memorandum and the Medium-Term
     programme are catastrophic for the country, and that the only way out,
     and to the benefit of stability in Greece, is immediate recourse to
     general elections.
      
     The same sources said that neither a new meeting of the Council of
     Political Party Leaders nor a one-on-one meeting with Papandreou were
     put forward during the phone discussion.
      
     Tsipras will make statements immediately after the prime minister's
     address to the nation later on Wednesday. (ANA)

     PM meets with President, rumours abound
         by (AthensNewsWeb)             15 Jun 2011 (google says about 3
     hours ago)
     http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43133
     Prime Minister George Papandreou met with the President of the Republic
     Karolos Papoulias, on Wednesday noon, stating that this is a \"historic
     moment\", while Greek journalists cancelled their 24-hour nationwide
     strike, as rumours abound about the possibility of a coalition
     government or snap elections.
      
     According to government sources, the prime minister will continue on
     Wednesday his round of telephone contacts with the political party
     leaders after his extraordinary meeting with Karolos Papoulias, adding
     that Papandreou had spoken only with Communist Party of Greece (KKE)
     leader Aleka Papariga and Democratic Left leader Fotis Kouvelis before
     the meeting.
      
     This clarification comes as earlier on Wednesday, a statement by
     Papandreou before the meeting with Papoulias that he was in contact with
     the party leaders to seek consensus sparked denials of such telephone
     contacts by ND and Syriza.

      
     Papandreou, the sources continued, would make an address to the people
     later on Wednesday. The government sources left open all prospects, but
     for the time being ruled out snap elections.
      
     Earlier, Pasok MP Ntinos Vrettos asked for the government to resign so
     that a new one would be formed of publicly acclaimed experts and
     politicians.
      
     On Tuesday, Florina MP Giorgos Lianis tendered his resignation as a
     member of Pasok's central committee. Lianis is keeping his parliament
     seat and will continue to serve as an independent, leaving the ruling
     Pasok party with 155 MPs.
      
     In his resignation letter addressed to the Speaker of the Parliament and
     to Prime Minister George Papandreou, Lianis stressed that he does not
     believe anymore in the government's economic policy and that \"we [the
     government] have failed and we are forced to hide the truth from the
     people\".
      
     Lianis, who started his career as a journalist, was first elected to
     parliament on Pasok's ticket in 1989 and he has served as deputy culture
     minister from 1993 to 1996.
      
     Earlier on Tuesday, Pasok MP for Kozani Alekos Athanasiadis in a radio
     interview said that he would vote against the medium-term programme.
      
     \"I will not vote for the medium-term programme and I assume my
     responsibilities,\" Athanasiadis said.
      
     The government on Thursday tabled in parliament a medium-term fiscal
     strategy framework for the economy envisaging a new round of severe
     austerity measures designed to bring in overall revenues of 28.259
     billion euros by 2015, as well as a 50 billion euros privatisation
     programme. The programme is scheduled to be put to vote in the
     300-member chamber on June 28.

     ND denies reports of Samaras meeting with PM aide
         15 Jun 2011 (google says about 5 hours ago)
     http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43150
     Main opposition New Democracy categorically denied on Wednesday rumours
     appearing on several blogs and websites of a meeting on Tuesday between
     ND leader Antonis Samaras and a representative of Prime Minister George
     Papandreou.
      
     In a statement, ND press officer Yiannis Michelakis called the rumours
     \"absurd\" and unworthy of denial.
      
     ND further denied any telephone contact whatsoever between Samaras and
     Papandreou. (ANA)

     On 6/15/11 10:05 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

       ND denies reports of Samaras meeting with PM aide
           15 Jun 2011
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43150
       Main opposition New Democracy categorically denied on Wednesday
       rumours appearing on several blogs and websites of a meeting on
       Tuesday between ND leader Antonis Samaras and a representative of
       Prime Minister George Papandreou.
        
       In a statement, ND press officer Yiannis Michelakis called the rumours
       \"absurd\" and unworthy of denial.
        
       ND further denied any telephone contact whatsoever between Samaras and
       Papandreou. (ANA)

       Greek PM Prepared To Step Down To Form Alliance Government Even As
       Opposition's Samaras Demands Substantial MOU Renegotiation
       Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/15/2011 10:50 -0400
       http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greek-pm-prepared-step-down-form-alliance-government-even-oppositions-samaras-demands-substa

       Developments in Athens are to say the least fluid. The latest news out
       of Athens News states that G-Pap is prepared to step down in order to
       form an all-party consensus government with the main opposition party,
       New Democracy. \"Prime Minister George Papandreou held talks with main
       opposition New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras on the telephone on
       Wednesday, after a round of telephone calls with the leaders of the
       other political parties in Parliament. Their conversation lasted
       roughly 20 minutes. While an earlier official announcement by ND had
       refused to disclose the content of their talks before Papandreou had
       expressed his position, unnamed sources within the party said that the
       prime minister had described the situation as extremely difficult and
       that he was prepared to consider either an all-party government or a
       broader alliance government. The same sources said that Samaras did
       not reject the proposal but made it clear that this could not work
       with Papandreou as prime minister. To this, always according to ND
       sources, Papandreou apparently replied that he was not concerned about
       whether he was prime minister.\" And while the political wrangling is
       irrelevant for the rest of the world, what is relevant, especially for
       the ECB which would need a bail out by the Fed should Greece default
       is the following: \"Samaras has apparently made it a condition that
       there is a substantial renegotiation of the terms of the Memorandum
       for the loans to Greece, in order to agree to an all-party
       government.\" Good luck passing that by the Troica. In other words,
       Greece is now in a power vacuum and the worst case outcome for Europe
       appears set to be realized.

       PM and ND leader discuss all-party government, sources claim
       Wednesday, June 15, 2011
       http://greeceforu.blogspot.com/2011/06/pm-and-nd-leader-discuss-all-party.html
       Prime Minister George Papandreou held talks with main opposition New
       Democracy leader Antonis Samaras on the telephone on Wednesday, after
       a round of telephone calls with the leaders of the other political
       parties in Parliament. Their conversation lasted roughly 20 minutes.
        
       While an earlier official announcement by ND had refused to disclose
       the content of their talks before Papandreou had expressed his
       position, unnamed sources within the party said that the prime
       minister had described the situation as extremely difficult and that
       he was prepared to consider either an all-party government or a
       broader alliance government.
        
       The same sources said that Samaras did not reject the proposal but
       made it clear that this could not work with Papandreou as prime
       minister. To this, always according to ND sources, Papandreou
       apparently replied that he was not concerned about whether he was
       prime minister.
        
       Other sources within the party announced that there would be a second
       telephone communication between the two men later on Wednesday
       afternoon.
        
       Samaras has apparently made it a condition that there is a substantial
       renegotiation of the terms of the Memorandum for the loans to Greece,
       in order to agree to an all-party government.
        
       The ND leader, who has been in continuous contact with his closest
       aides since the morning, is expected to head to his party's
       headquarters in a short while.

Greece's Drama: Political Leaders Reject PM's Offer for Consensus

       Posted by keeptalkinggreece in Politics
       http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2011/06/15/greeces-drama-political-leaders-reject-pms-offer-for-consensus/

       Tension is high not only on Syntagma Square but also on the political
       level, as Prime Minister George Papandreou contacted all political
       leaders after his meeting with the President earlier on Wednesday.
       Although it has not been very clear what were the exact proposals
       submitted by the Prime Ministers apart from `consensus' and several
       scenarios circulated, Greek media claim now that all political leaders
       turned down the PM. Newspaper Proto Thema even claims that they told
       him unanimously \"George, Go Away!\" and demanded early elections. Some
       scenarios speak of a new government withih

       Latest leakages from main opposition centre-right party Nea Dimokratia
       report that ND agrees only to a bipartisan or a ND-PASOK government,
       however with George Papandreou leaving the office of the prime
       minister. Another condition for ND to participate in a government with
       PASOK is the re-negotiation of the Memorandum and the Mid-Term
       Stability Programme.

       Earlier, PASOK-MP Dinos Vrettos asked in a written statement, all
       members of the government to resign and crucial ministerial positions
       to be occupied by non members of PASOK. He also favors a
       re-negotiation of the Mid-Term Package.

       Political leaders and some PASOK deputies seem to bow to the public
       demand, as this has been expressed by the mass protests, that a strict
       austerity without perspective for recovery and an always increasing
       debt does nothing else but impoverish people for the shake of the
       banks and the rescue of the Eurozone.

       George Papandreou is expected to address the public later today.

       keep tuned with \"Keep Talking, Greece\" and follow our Live Streaming
       and Live Blogging

       On 6/15/11 9:44 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

         More from our confed partner, he is feeding me up to date info. We
         should think about sit-repping this stuff

         Latest info is that Papandreou himself proposed such a change as a
         last ditch effort. It seems we are close to some sort of a deal. A
         prerogative of such a governement will most probably be a
         renegotiation of the measures. But conceivably, since there is no
         time for much bargaining now, first they would pass the measures
         through parliament (so that we can get the money) \"in principle\" and
         then try to renegotiate some of the measures (taxes mostly)
         proposing a different mix and probably some political \"leeway\"  from
         the EU
         Its a touchy situation and as I said things are still evolving. I
         dont think we are going to an Argentina scenario at least not at
         this point.
         A national salvation governement backed by 90% of political parties
         is what the EU wanted all along, so I imagine  a lot of give and
         take  is going to happen soon.

         On 6/15/11 9:09 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

           Two more updates on this:

           Another PASOK MP Mr Dinos Vrettos, asked today for a total
           reshuffling of the government , and putting well known
           personalities from a broader spectrum in the new government.

           Papandreou in talks with Samaras about a coalition governement.
           Samaras wants a \"national salvation\" government without Papandreou
           as  a prime minister ( so that there is a new prime minister of
           wide and common acceptance).

           On 6/15/11 8:21 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

             PUBLICATION: Yes
             SOURCE: EL501
             ATTRIBUTION: Greek media sources
             SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Confed partner
             SOURCE  Reliability : A
             ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
             DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
             SPECIAL HANDLING: Marko

              I havent replyed earlier because the situation  is constantly
             evolving. Yesterday there were two MPs that refused to sign the
             new measures there is a big stike today with some (limited)
             violence going on at the center of Athens and our info is that
             Papandreou is in contact with other political leaders for some
             kind of broader consencus, maybe even some form of coalition
             govewrnement. 
             Will get back to you but the elections scenario is also at the
             forefront if no consencus in reached.
             --
             Marko Papic

             STRATFOR Analyst
             C: + 1-512-905-3091
             marko.papic@stratfor.com

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic

 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic
","2011-06-15 22:01:28",1,"2011-03-05 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/76281_re-alpha-insight-greece-situation-is-evolving-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
76300,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - GREECE - Situation is evolving
","   Another update from our boy

   Right in all your points. On point one (unrest) though, I have to say -
   Yet. Things may get worse - maybe soon. Political instability breeds
   trouble, as they say. Also keep in mind that this time there are people in
   Sintagma square every day for 22 days now! 
   Marco,  I have to call it a night (after about 14-15 intense hours) will
   keep you posted on developments tomorrow.
   Keep an eye on the larger picture too, things are not going well, some
   international  investors (Hedge Funds- Paulson etc. some rumors say)  are
   really betting on a Greek accident and the following contagion.

   On 6/15/11 3:01 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     More from my contact, I also agree on the bolded parts

     Latest developments. No co-operation! 
     Papandreou just declared a reshuffling of the government tomorrow -and a
     vote of confidence!
     He  may get the vote of confidence-marginally -and will count that MPs
     that did not topple the government will not abstain from votting the new
     measurew a few days later. Risky business and -this is what is important
     medium term- right now there is widespread doubt about the ability of
     any PASOK governement to implement the measures.
     Difficult to predict what happens next. As you may understand by now,
     this is GREEK politics, like no other! Most likely the outcome of this
     monkeing will not be nice.
     But IMF signaled today (according to FT and our own info) that they are
     going to give their side of the money for the 5th installment by early
     July, even if there is no concrete new package of help for Greece. In
     other words EU-IMF are willing to do almost whatever it takes so that we
     dont go into default right now.
     On the other hand - accidents can happen in such a big goatfuck as this
     one. 
     Best regards- and excuse the french 

     On 6/15/11 10:18 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

       Actually these are much better, organized by most recent at top

       PM and ND leader discuss all-party government, sources claim
           15 Jun 2011 (google says about 26 mins ago)
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43171
       Prime Minister George Papandreou held talks with main opposition New
       Democracy leader Antonis Samaras on the telephone on Wednesday, after
       a round of telephone calls with the leaders of the other political
       parties in Parliament. Their conversation lasted roughly 20 minutes.
        
       While an earlier official announcement by ND had refused to disclose
       the content of their talks before Papandreou had expressed his
       position, unnamed sources within the party said that the prime
       minister had described the situation as extremely difficult and that
       he was prepared to consider either an all-party government or a
       broader alliance government.
        
       The same sources said that Samaras did not reject the proposal but
       made it clear that this could not work with Papandreou as prime
       minister. To this, always according to ND sources, Papandreou
       apparently replied that he was not concerned about whether he was
       prime minister.
        
       Other sources within the party announced that there would be a second
       telephone communication between the two men later on Wednesday
       afternoon.
        
       Samaras has apparently made it a condition that there is a substantial
       renegotiation of the terms of the Memorandum for the loans to Greece,
       in order to agree to an all-party government.
        
       The ND leader, who has been in continuous contact with his closest
       aides since the morning, is expected to head to his party's
       headquarters in a short while. (ANA)

       PM talks with Samaras on the phone
           15 Jun 2011 (google says about 1 hour ago)
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43169

       Prime Minister George Papandreou held talks with main opposition New
       Democracy leader Antonis Samaras on the telephone on Wednesday, after
       a round of telephone calls with the leaders of the other political
       parties in Parliament.
        
       Their conversation lasted roughly 20 minutes and ND refused to reveal
       any information concerning their talks before the prime minister
       addresses the public.
        
       Samaras, who has been in continuous contact with his closest aides
       since the morning, was expected to head to his party's headquarters
       after the conversation with Papandreou. (ANA)

       Tsipras calls for immediate elections in phone call with PM
           15 Jun 2011 (google says about 2 hours ago)
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43163

       Coalition of the Radical Left (Syriza parliamentary alliance)
       parliamentary group leader Alexis Tsipras on Wednesday called for
       immediate general elections as the only way out for the country,
       during a telephone discussion with Prime Minister George Papandreou,
       according to party sources.
        
       Papandreou called Tsipras after an extraordinary meeting with
       President of the Republic Karolos Papoulias earlier in the day, in the
       context of a round of phone calls to all political party leaders.
        
       Sources said Papandreou reiterated his government's and his own
       personal determination that the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy Framework
       programme will be passed by parliament, to which Tsipras replied that
       Syriza remained firm in its stance that the Memorandum and the
       Medium-Term programme are catastrophic for the country, and that the
       only way out, and to the benefit of stability in Greece, is immediate
       recourse to general elections.
        
       The same sources said that neither a new meeting of the Council of
       Political Party Leaders nor a one-on-one meeting with Papandreou were
       put forward during the phone discussion.
        
       Tsipras will make statements immediately after the prime minister's
       address to the nation later on Wednesday. (ANA)

       PM meets with President, rumours abound
           by (AthensNewsWeb)             15 Jun 2011 (google says about 3
       hours ago)
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43133
       Prime Minister George Papandreou met with the President of the
       Republic Karolos Papoulias, on Wednesday noon, stating that this is a
       \"historic moment\", while Greek journalists cancelled their 24-hour
       nationwide strike, as rumours abound about the possibility of a
       coalition government or snap elections.
        
       According to government sources, the prime minister will continue on
       Wednesday his round of telephone contacts with the political party
       leaders after his extraordinary meeting with Karolos Papoulias, adding
       that Papandreou had spoken only with Communist Party of Greece (KKE)
       leader Aleka Papariga and Democratic Left leader Fotis Kouvelis before
       the meeting.
        
       This clarification comes as earlier on Wednesday, a statement by
       Papandreou before the meeting with Papoulias that he was in contact
       with the party leaders to seek consensus sparked denials of such
       telephone contacts by ND and Syriza.

        
       Papandreou, the sources continued, would make an address to the people
       later on Wednesday. The government sources left open all prospects,
       but for the time being ruled out snap elections.
        
       Earlier, Pasok MP Ntinos Vrettos asked for the government to resign so
       that a new one would be formed of publicly acclaimed experts and
       politicians.
        
       On Tuesday, Florina MP Giorgos Lianis tendered his resignation as a
       member of Pasok's central committee. Lianis is keeping his parliament
       seat and will continue to serve as an independent, leaving the ruling
       Pasok party with 155 MPs.
        
       In his resignation letter addressed to the Speaker of the Parliament
       and to Prime Minister George Papandreou, Lianis stressed that he does
       not believe anymore in the government's economic policy and that \"we
       [the government] have failed and we are forced to hide the truth from
       the people\".
        
       Lianis, who started his career as a journalist, was first elected to
       parliament on Pasok's ticket in 1989 and he has served as deputy
       culture minister from 1993 to 1996.
        
       Earlier on Tuesday, Pasok MP for Kozani Alekos Athanasiadis in a radio
       interview said that he would vote against the medium-term programme.
        
       \"I will not vote for the medium-term programme and I assume my
       responsibilities,\" Athanasiadis said.
        
       The government on Thursday tabled in parliament a medium-term fiscal
       strategy framework for the economy envisaging a new round of severe
       austerity measures designed to bring in overall revenues of 28.259
       billion euros by 2015, as well as a 50 billion euros privatisation
       programme. The programme is scheduled to be put to vote in the
       300-member chamber on June 28.

       ND denies reports of Samaras meeting with PM aide
           15 Jun 2011 (google says about 5 hours ago)
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43150
       Main opposition New Democracy categorically denied on Wednesday
       rumours appearing on several blogs and websites of a meeting on
       Tuesday between ND leader Antonis Samaras and a representative of
       Prime Minister George Papandreou.
        
       In a statement, ND press officer Yiannis Michelakis called the rumours
       \"absurd\" and unworthy of denial.
        
       ND further denied any telephone contact whatsoever between Samaras and
       Papandreou. (ANA)

       On 6/15/11 10:05 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

         ND denies reports of Samaras meeting with PM aide
             15 Jun 2011
         http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43150
         Main opposition New Democracy categorically denied on Wednesday
         rumours appearing on several blogs and websites of a meeting on
         Tuesday between ND leader Antonis Samaras and a representative of
         Prime Minister George Papandreou.
          
         In a statement, ND press officer Yiannis Michelakis called the
         rumours \"absurd\" and unworthy of denial.
          
         ND further denied any telephone contact whatsoever between Samaras
         and Papandreou. (ANA)

         Greek PM Prepared To Step Down To Form Alliance Government Even As
         Opposition's Samaras Demands Substantial MOU Renegotiation
         Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/15/2011 10:50 -0400
         http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greek-pm-prepared-step-down-form-alliance-government-even-oppositions-samaras-demands-substa

         Developments in Athens are to say the least fluid. The latest news
         out of Athens News states that G-Pap is prepared to step down in
         order to form an all-party consensus government with the main
         opposition party, New Democracy. \"Prime Minister George Papandreou
         held talks with main opposition New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras
         on the telephone on Wednesday, after a round of telephone calls with
         the leaders of the other political parties in Parliament. Their
         conversation lasted roughly 20 minutes. While an earlier official
         announcement by ND had refused to disclose the content of their
         talks before Papandreou had expressed his position, unnamed sources
         within the party said that the prime minister had described the
         situation as extremely difficult and that he was prepared to
         consider either an all-party government or a broader alliance
         government. The same sources said that Samaras did not reject the
         proposal but made it clear that this could not work with Papandreou
         as prime minister. To this, always according to ND sources,
         Papandreou apparently replied that he was not concerned about
         whether he was prime minister.\" And while the political wrangling is
         irrelevant for the rest of the world, what is relevant, especially
         for the ECB which would need a bail out by the Fed should Greece
         default is the following: \"Samaras has apparently made it a
         condition that there is a substantial renegotiation of the terms of
         the Memorandum for the loans to Greece, in order to agree to an
         all-party government.\" Good luck passing that by the Troica. In
         other words, Greece is now in a power vacuum and the worst case
         outcome for Europe appears set to be realized.

         PM and ND leader discuss all-party government, sources claim
         Wednesday, June 15, 2011
         http://greeceforu.blogspot.com/2011/06/pm-and-nd-leader-discuss-all-party.html
         Prime Minister George Papandreou held talks with main opposition New
         Democracy leader Antonis Samaras on the telephone on Wednesday,
         after a round of telephone calls with the leaders of the other
         political parties in Parliament. Their conversation lasted roughly
         20 minutes.
          
         While an earlier official announcement by ND had refused to disclose
         the content of their talks before Papandreou had expressed his
         position, unnamed sources within the party said that the prime
         minister had described the situation as extremely difficult and that
         he was prepared to consider either an all-party government or a
         broader alliance government.
          
         The same sources said that Samaras did not reject the proposal but
         made it clear that this could not work with Papandreou as prime
         minister. To this, always according to ND sources, Papandreou
         apparently replied that he was not concerned about whether he was
         prime minister.
          
         Other sources within the party announced that there would be a
         second telephone communication between the two men later on
         Wednesday afternoon.
          
         Samaras has apparently made it a condition that there is a
         substantial renegotiation of the terms of the Memorandum for the
         loans to Greece, in order to agree to an all-party government.
          
         The ND leader, who has been in continuous contact with his closest
         aides since the morning, is expected to head to his party's
         headquarters in a short while.

Greece's Drama: Political Leaders Reject PM's Offer for Consensus

         Posted by keeptalkinggreece in Politics
         http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2011/06/15/greeces-drama-political-leaders-reject-pms-offer-for-consensus/

         Tension is high not only on Syntagma Square but also on the
         political level, as Prime Minister George Papandreou contacted all
         political leaders after his meeting with the President earlier on
         Wednesday. Although it has not been very clear what were the exact
         proposals submitted by the Prime Ministers apart from `consensus'
         and several scenarios circulated, Greek media claim now that all
         political leaders turned down the PM. Newspaper Proto Thema even
         claims that they told him unanimously \"George, Go Away!\" and
         demanded early elections. Some scenarios speak of a new government
         withih

         Latest leakages from main opposition centre-right party Nea
         Dimokratia report that ND agrees only to a bipartisan or a ND-PASOK
         government, however with George Papandreou leaving the office of the
         prime minister. Another condition for ND to participate in a
         government with PASOK is the re-negotiation of the Memorandum and
         the Mid-Term Stability Programme.

         Earlier, PASOK-MP Dinos Vrettos asked in a written statement, all
         members of the government to resign and crucial ministerial
         positions to be occupied by non members of PASOK. He also favors a
         re-negotiation of the Mid-Term Package.

         Political leaders and some PASOK deputies seem to bow to the public
         demand, as this has been expressed by the mass protests, that a
         strict austerity without perspective for recovery and an always
         increasing debt does nothing else but impoverish people for the
         shake of the banks and the rescue of the Eurozone.

         George Papandreou is expected to address the public later today.

         keep tuned with \"Keep Talking, Greece\" and follow our Live Streaming
         and Live Blogging

         On 6/15/11 9:44 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

           More from our confed partner, he is feeding me up to date info. We
           should think about sit-repping this stuff

           Latest info is that Papandreou himself proposed such a change as a
           last ditch effort. It seems we are close to some sort of a deal. A
           prerogative of such a governement will most probably be a
           renegotiation of the measures. But conceivably, since there is no
           time for much bargaining now, first they would pass the measures
           through parliament (so that we can get the money) \"in principle\"
           and then try to renegotiate some of the measures (taxes mostly)
           proposing a different mix and probably some political \"leeway\"
            from the EU
           Its a touchy situation and as I said things are still evolving. I
           dont think we are going to an Argentina scenario at least not at
           this point.
           A national salvation governement backed by 90% of political
           parties is what the EU wanted all along, so I imagine  a lot of
           give and take  is going to happen soon.

           On 6/15/11 9:09 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

             Two more updates on this:

             Another PASOK MP Mr Dinos Vrettos, asked today for a total
             reshuffling of the government , and putting well known
             personalities from a broader spectrum in the new government.

             Papandreou in talks with Samaras about a coalition governement.
             Samaras wants a \"national salvation\" government without
             Papandreou as  a prime minister ( so that there is a new prime
             minister of wide and common acceptance).

             On 6/15/11 8:21 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

               PUBLICATION: Yes
               SOURCE: EL501
               ATTRIBUTION: Greek media sources
               SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Confed partner
               SOURCE  Reliability : A
               ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
               DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
               SPECIAL HANDLING: Marko

                I havent replyed earlier because the situation  is constantly
               evolving. Yesterday there were two MPs that refused to sign
               the new measures there is a big stike today with some
               (limited) violence going on at the center of Athens and our
               info is that Papandreou is in contact with other political
               leaders for some kind of broader consencus, maybe even some
               form of coalition govewrnement. 
               Will get back to you but the elections scenario is also at the
               forefront if no consencus in reached.
               --
               Marko Papic

               STRATFOR Analyst
               C: + 1-512-905-3091
               marko.papic@stratfor.com

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic

 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic

 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic
","2011-06-15 22:53:28",1,"2011-03-05 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/76300_re-alpha-insight-greece-situation-is-evolving-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
76832,"Re: [MESA] [CT] Anonymous
","   ask noonan, he loves this group

   On 6/9/11 8:43 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

     Do you guys know whether a hacker group called Anonymous really exists?
     They're threatening to attack on some Turkish gov institutions in couple
     of hours due to the internet restrictions imposed by AKP (will enter
     into force August 22). I will write up a rep if it's a credible threat.

     --
     --
     Emre Dogru
     STRATFOR  
     Cell: +90.532.465.7514
     Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
     emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
     www.stratfor.com
","2011-06-09 16:10:16",1,"2012-03-06 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/76832_re-mesa-ct-anonymous-.html","bayless.parsley@stratfor.com","mailto:mesa@stratfor.com","ct@stratfor.com,mesa@stratfor.com",""
77532,"Re: Former Spanish PM Azner
","   Haha, I'm glad you noticed those gorgeous locks as well
   Aznar could have been exaggerating the ETA in VZ stuff, but who knows

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Nov 16, 2010, at 6:35 PM, Reginald Thompson
   <reginald.thompson@stratfor.com> wrote:

     At least 20 camps? Pretty impressive. That's more than I've seen in OS,
     where so far all they've been focusing on is the Guasdalito camp where
     Cubillas was allegedly at, but it's quite possible all those former
     etarras are spread out all over the place. I would he's a lot more open
     about heaping criticisms on Chavez since I heard him speak at Trinity
     back in 2004, where he referred to him as \"an interesting man.\" My
     brother has a picture of himself with Aznar at that event. Every time I
     look at it I really do think, it's always his hair that I notice.....

     -----------------
     Reginald Thompson

     Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741

     OSINT
     Stratfor

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Tuesday, November 16, 2010 5:26:21 PM
     Subject: Former Spanish PM Azner

     Wow, SeA+-or presidente is hardcore.. Way more extreme than even the  
     Israeli officials I've heard speak. He honestly believes that all  
     terrorists are the same and that nothing short of total war can defeat  
     them. He is adamantly against any kind of negotiation with terrorists  
     and criticizes France, Germany and others heavily in this regard. He  
     attributes French and German \"weakness\" on counterterrorism to their  
     larger Muslim populations. He said OBL's statement on retaking Andaluz  
     is all he heard and the Germans and French just didn't get it. He says  
     poverty has zero connection to terrorism and that developmental aid  
     policies are useless. On ETA, he said the ceasefires are just time  
     buying measures, nothing more. In Catalonia he says the regional govt  
     encourages Muslim immigration from Pakistan, Algeria, etc because they  
     can more easily linguistically integrate them as opposed to Spanish-
     speaking immigrants. This is also where the most radical imams are in  
     the country. He also said ETA has at least 20 camps in Venezuela and  
     ggat farc and eta work with each other in training l, weapons, etc.

     Overall, he's very ideological and hardline. Good reminder of the  
     personal role in poltics (though he also paid for that and is  
     embarassed by his loss)

     Also, great hair.

     Sent from my iPhone
","2010-11-17 00:44:52",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/77532_re-former-spanish-pm-azner-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
78019,"[alpha] INSIGHT - PNG - Woman's body found in PM's home - CN65
","    SOURCE:  CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources (and doing business with the leadership in PNG)
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   My view is that the links between PNG and China won't be changed by who is
   in power, as China already has a substantial foot in the resources sector
   - Ramu NiCo and Marengo Mining, for example, as well as sniffing around
   PNG LNG.
   The main factor limiting China's ability to reach into the country is the
   inability of the PNG politicians to be efficient in receiving aid offers.
    For example, most of a US$200m loan facility remains undrawn because they
   can't work out how to utilise it.
   The thing about Melanesia is that politicians are not pro-active, and
   certainly not policy active.  They are instead led by people from outside.
    The factors that determine future direction are: first and foremost, how
   Australia throws aid around; and what other countries put on offer.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com


 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
","2011-06-15 16:43:43",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/78019_-alpha-insight-png-woman-s-body-found-in-pm-s-home-cn65-.html","ben.preisler@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
79560,"[alpha] INSIGHT - GLOBAL - Macro report - OCH007
","   SOURCE: OCH007
   ATTRIBUTION: Old China Hand
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Well connected financial source
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Meredith/Jen

                                        

   The global economy is facing a difficult period. The US Federal Reserve's
   QE2 program ends at the end of the month. Europe's debt issues continue to
   roll on as no party wants to pull the plug on Greece. The Middle East is
   in turmoil and high oil prices, together with food, are a tax on global
   consumers. Japan's reconstruction has yet to get into full gear; and there
   are new concerns about the durability of China's economy. Any significant
   slowdown there will send ripples of fear around the world.

   The Federal Reserve is likely to sit pat for some months to see how the US
   economy will be able to perform without the steroids provided by them.
   Foreign central banks have largely been absent from Treasury auctions. In
   quarter 1 this year, foreign central banks bought just 16% of the
   issuances while the Federal Reserve acquired almost 200%, according to
   Russell Napier. In other words, the Fed's activities have masked the
   exodus of foreign central banks including China from these auctions.

   If foreign central banks continue to abstain from purchasing US
   Treasuries, the private sector will have to fund the fiscal deficit,
   implying quarterly remittances to the US Treasury of some $370bn. The
   private sector will be able to fund these auctions but at a price. They
   will demand a higher return on treasury paper and the funding will mean
   that the free-flow of funds into equity and commodities will come to an
   end. Many institutions are taking risk off the table.

   On our associate's, WaveTrack International technical work, 10-year US
   Treasuries should be yielding around 4% later this summer and 6% a year or
   so later. The repercussions of such a change in the yield structure will
   have global consequences, not least on stock and commodity markets.

   Debt has woven a dangerous spider's web in Europe. The basic truth is that
   Greece can never repay its debt; the ECB, the IMF and Euro governments are
   merely buying time by granting new loans, hoping that the problem goes
   away. Future stability, however, does not depend on what these
   institutions and governments do, but on how the electorates will react. In
   their view, austerity can be accepted only on a one or two year view, not
   as an ongoing way of life.

   This is especially true of Greece whose national pride will find the sale
   of assets to foreigners wholly unacceptable. The same is true in other
   debt-laden Euro countries. All, apart from Italy, have seen their
   economies contract significantly over the past two years with little hope
   of any imminent improvement. The next major move could emanate from
   Ireland; the Irish government wants to renegotiate its ECB and other
   loans.

   In fact, nearly all the conventional forward looking indicators (PMIs,
   OECD leading indicators etc.) are suggesting that global growth is slowing
   and rolling over. The US ISM data for May was universally awful with every
   component from New Orders to Imports down significantly. This is a view
   shared by industry mills we talk to and visit regularly.

   The USA does not only have a cyclical problem, but a structural one also.
   The fundamental issue is that sooner rather than later government will be
   forced to introduce measures that will allow the country to live within
   its means. It will take a deep crisis before such policies can be put
   together and passed by the country's politicians. For instance, a run on
   the US dollar sometime next year or early in 2013 might do the trick.

   Unemployment amongst teenagers has become a serious structural and social
   problem for the USA in an economy that is becoming dominated by skilled
   workers. The number of unemployed teenagers (16-19) now totals almost one
   in four. However, the number of African-American, not seasonally adjusted
   U-3 unemployment, including both sexes, in the same age group has risen to
   a stunning 41%, almost every other teenager.

   Once Washington puts its act together, (it will have to or else the crisis
   will get so deep that US markets will become dysfunctional), America will
   find a large number of companies which had vacated the shores of the USA
   for China and other parts of Asia returning to their homeland.

   There are two main reasons for this change, what we call reverse
   globalisation. First, manufacturers want their supply chains located close
   to the market, not on the other side of the world. And second just as
   important is the cost differential trend which is narrowing together with
   the increasing logistical costs. It is not only the wage profile looking
   10 years forward, but the other costs, such as land, electricity, taxes
   together with the indirect supply chain cost increases. There is also the
   reluctance of the system in China to allow foreign companies to gain
   access to government contracts.

   Within a decade, the USA could supplant China as the manufacturing hub of
   the world. To repeat, big changes will be needed in Washington for this
   historic development to occur. The changes will not just be on the fiscal
   side, but the need to offer businesses the right incentives to produce in
   the USA rather than abroad, the permitting procedures to allow the
   development of the country's resources, including oil (the USA could
   become self-contained), making government less intrusive in households and
   businesses and so on.

    In short, it is putting back in place the principals that made America
   the great country it once was. Crises produce opportunities and this one
   is as big as they have been since the USA entered WW11. What is noteworthy
   is that should America grab its opportunity, it will become self-contained
   in energy and of course food. What other major power has those valuable
   twin assets?

    

   China and the rest of Asia are no exception to this slowing economic
   trend. In the former, government's focus on CPI inflation and the housing
   market together with its concerns on the degree of speculative or hot
   money circulating within the economy will almost ensure that the tight
   monetary policy will continue for some months yet. In these circumstances,
   further hikes in interest rates and Reserve Requirements are likely to be
   seen before the end of the year.

                       Chart 1: Shanghai Composite Index

   Such a scenario fits the political cycle. Some of the country's excesses
   can be cleaned out by end 2011, much to the delight of the incoming
   leadership, whilst monetary policy remains tight. The chief economist of
   the State Information Centre, who is well regarded in Beijing, said at a
   recent conference in Shanghai that \"China has a serious inflation\". He
   concluded his speech by saying that China had to endure some short term
   pain for the longer term benefit of the economy.

   Early in 2012, monetary policy will start to be loosened and should
   continue to do so throughout that year. The economy should recover so
   allowing the outgoing leadership to depart on a high note. Post 2012, we
   guess that the incoming leadership will want to put the economy on a
   firmer long-term footing, meaning more tightening. This may well coincide
   with the real estate sector seeing major falls in prices and, externally,
   the global economy starting to suffer from the breakout of its second
   global credit crisis. Oil prices in the $150-200 will be a disaster for
   China as one senior government economist said to us. China may well go
   through two odd years of real recession in 2013-14 years, in our view. The
   impact of an effective recession in China on the rest of the world will be
   serious and widespread.

                  Chart 2: The Demographics of the Middle East

   Some of the underlying causes for MENA countries' youth to rebel against
   their autocratic governments are common with China. The youth in these
   countries don't care about democracy or who governs: they want freedom of
   expression, for governments to uphold their rights and the right to work.

   It is why Beijing has become so sensitive to the Jasmine movement and
   ongoing developments in MENA. Workers' protests appear to be on the rise.
   The ability to communicate via computers and mobile phones (Facebook etc.)
   increasingly makes government powerless to control the flow of
   information.

    As the Financial Times wrote on 20th July, \"the perception that local
   protests might be gaining a broader national coherence is deeply
   threatening to China's Communist Party....That is the conclusion of the
   government itself. A report by the State Council Development Research
   Centre blamed protests on the marginalisation of about 150M migrant
   workers...

                          Graph 1: Global Food Prices

   Global food prices have risen by 37% in the past year according to the
   FAO. It was higher food prices plus the high level of unemployment in MENA
   countries that sparked so much rioting in the region. China's government
   is highly sensitive to rising food prices. They may well rise further over
   the coming months due to the hog cycle so ensuring that pork prices
   increase further followed by corn and in due course even wheat. But,
   China's agricultural base is deteriorating. Top soil is collapsing to
   dangerous levels; its fertility is being destroyed by acidification; water
   is being consumed way beyond sustainable levels; and aquifers are being
   exhausted. These are structural issues, not short term cyclical ones.

   The demographics of the rural areas of China imply that the pool of active
   workers in the age group 15-30 is fast diminishing. It means that
   productivity will decline to a rate closer to the Asian Tigers ex. China
   or down to the 2% a year level from its historic 5% rate. The above
   remarks also imply that China will be importing more foodstuffs over the
   coming decade. Unlike the USA, China is becoming increasingly dependent on
   imports of food and energy.

   The above is a more likely scenario to evolve than the benign outlook
   postulated by so many. The world is not back to the 1990s sustainable
   growth, but its fragility is being patched up by unsustainable fiscal and
   monetary excesses. In fact, as Charles Gave wrote recently in GaveKal Five
   Corners these policies have had the opposite effect than those intended
   (the unintended consequences of policy actions!), \"Capitalism cannot work
   without a proper cost of capital. Capitalism needs the process of creative
   destruction, and if real rates are negative or abnormally low, the
   destruction part of the process cannot happen, zombie companies are kept
   on perpetual life support and growth flags.\"

   This is exactly what is happening nearly everywhere. Politicians won't
   bite the bullet (perhaps with the exception of the UK) without a crisis.
   That crisis is coming, certainly by early 2013 if not sooner, to be
   followed by years of recession and deflation, a period when the down years
   will outnumber the up ones. It will be accompanied by a serious deflation
   of assets, both equities and commodities, perhaps excepting food. This
   period of austerity is likely to last until around 2018; a generation of
   debt should by then have been worked off so laying the foundations for a
   long period of sustainable growth.

           Chart 3: Historical Sovereign Default/Restructuring Events

                                        

   The truth is that the lessons of history have been conveniently forgotten
   or ignored, as illustrated by Carmen Reinhardt and Kenneth Rogoff in their
   epic work \"Growth in a Time of Debt\". Those lessons are simple: credit
   crises are followed by years of sub-par growth and sovereign defaults.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com


 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
","2011-06-22 17:15:39",1,"2012-03-08 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/79560_-alpha-insight-global-macro-report-och007-.html","michael.wilson@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com","attach/10/10229_msg-21778-10889.png
attach/10/10230_msg-21778-10887.png
attach/10/10231_msg-21778-10888.png
attach/10/10233_msg-21778-10886.png"
79931,"RE: Insight --  IR902 - Iranian Diplomat on HZ Threat
","   Here are some thoughts from my response to a client question earlier today
   on this matter:

    

   Have heard that assassination of Israeli officials in transit in 3rd
   countries is a potential option that Hezbollah is contemplating. But
   ultimately what Hezbollah does on a tactical level will be guided by the
   larger geopolitical situation, which limits what the group can and can't
   do.

    

   First and foremost, Hezbollah is a Lebanese political party, which is
   embroiled in two separate conflicts at this point: 1) The power struggle
   between the anti and pro-Syrian camps for control of the Lebanese govt,
   particularly its presidency.; 2) Its need to show that it is not a foreign
   (Iranian) lackey that is putting the interests of its patrons above the
   country.

    

   Secondly, Hezbollah knows that Israel is looking for an excuse for a
   re-match so it would not want to retaliate in such a way that provides the
   Israelis a pretext for an attack.

    

   Thirdly, the Mughniyah assassination has shown that the movement cannot
   trust the Syrians. Sources have been telling us that Hezbollah blames Asef
   Shaukat, Syria's intel chief and President Bashar al-Assad's
   brother-in-law.

    

   Fourth, Hezbollah knows Iraq is far more important for Iran than Lebanon,
   which further places constraints on Hezbollah's calculus.

    

   In the light of these considerations, Hezbollah will have to be very
   careful in how hits back. Most likely attacks against Israeli interests in
   3rd countries.

    

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, March 27, 2008 1:47 PM
   To: 'Reva Bhalla'
   Cc: secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Insight -- IR902 - Iranian Diplomat on HZ Threat

    

   The Jordanians are a very capable service.  Better than the Israelis on
   some target sets, because guess who helps them? 

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, March 27, 2008 12:46 PM
   To: Fred Burton
   Cc: secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: Re: Insight -- IR902 - Iranian Diplomat on HZ Threat

   we've been hearing the same things from ME1's sources on how Hez and syria
   are not on good terms following the IM assassination.

    

   i asked someone here who the Arab country is that Syria is hinting was
   involved. source says not egypt, very likely Jordan.

    

   which makes me think that we could see the Hez retaliatory attack take
   place in Jordan..
   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: secure@stratfor.com
   Sent: Thursday, March 27, 2008 1:36:27 PM (GMT-0500) America/New_York
   Subject: Insight --  IR902 - Iranian Diplomat on HZ Threat

    

   PUBLICATION:  Not at this time

    

   ATTRIBUTION:   N/A 

    

   SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  A

    

   ITEM CREDIBILITY:   Unable to verify the veracity of the information at
   this time.  Have asked for additional clarification. 

    

    SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:  secure

    

   SPECIAL HANDLING: secure list only  

    

   Regarding Hizbullah's plans to avenge the assassination of Imad Mugniyah.
     

    

   He told me that the assassination has soured relations between Hizbullah
   and Syria who has been less than forthcoming on providing information in
   connection with the assassination. He believes Syria is embarrassed
   because certain Syrians are definitely involved one way or another in the
   assassination plot.    Syria will announce the outcome of its
   investigation after the end of the forthcoming Arab summit. 

    

   Hizbullah has made up its mind on putting all the blame on Israel. He told
   me that they will not avenge his assassination at the moment because they
   have core urgent issues to deal with such as the deep political crisis in
   Lebanon.   

    

   Hizbullah is currently in a state of confusion and shock and does not know
   how to respond, even though they are preparing a list of soft targets in
   Latin America and some Arab countries such as Jordan and Morocco.    He
   added that revenge is not a top priority for Hizbullah at the moment. They
   know that it would invite disproportionate Israeli retaliation for which
   they are not ready.   

    

   Iran has also cautioned them against making a wrong move at the present,
   because they cannot count on Iranian assistance beyond a display of
   solidarity and pep talk.
","2008-03-27 18:51:42",1,"2012-03-13 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/79931_re-insight-ir902-iranian-diplomat-on-hz-threat-.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,bhalla@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
80337,"Re: [latam] [EastAsia] ARGENTINA/CHINA/ECON - Hungry China Shops in
	Argentina
","   It is a good topic, they are all over the map. We've addressed it many
   times in the past, but there is always plenty going on. Jen also got some
   recent insight on this. it is a vast topic. for instance, China has
   invested about $10 bil in Brazil energy, $8 billion in Argentina energy,
   and $2 bil in Ecuador,  if memory serves. $7 billion in peruvian metals
   mining, $3 billion in Chilean metals, ... also a lot in venezuela, esp in
   energy and transport ...

   On 6/20/11 9:37 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

     It seems like China is all over the map in Latin America. Have we ever
     really addressed this? What does the US think/do about it?

     Hungry China Shops in Argentina
     June 20, 2011

     http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303823104576391621352528138.html

     BUENOS AIRES-Chinese investment is flooding into Argentina as the Asian
     giant expands its global commodity hunt from the raw materials used in
     industry to the foodstuffs needed to feed its 1.3 billion citizens.

     China's investment in Latin America hit $15.6 billion during the
     12-month period through the end of May, nearly three times greater than
     the year-ago period, consulting firm Deloitte said in a report. Of that
     amount, Brazil received about 60% and Argentina close to 40%.

     During the last three years, more than 70% of China's investment in the
     region went to energy and minerals, but farming is attracting more
     attention as the country seeks to fill its bowls from foreign fields.

     China already buys the bulk of Argentina's soybean exports, its top crop
     and largest source of export revenue. Soybeans are mainly used as
     livestock feed in China, where meat consumption is rising along with
     personal incomes. At the same time, urbanization is shrinking the amount
     of arable land available in China.

     Last week, China's largest farming company, Heilongjiang Beidahuang
     Nongken Group, signed a joint venture with Argentina's Cresud SA to buy
     land and farm soybeans.

     Cresud is one of Argentina's top agriculture firms with control over
     more than one million hectares (2.47 million acres) of farmland that
     produce grain, cattle and milk.

     Cresud didn't respond to requests for comment.

     Heilongjiang Beidahuang Chairman Sui Fengfu told Dow Jones Newswires in
     March that the company plans to buy 200,000 hectares of overseas
     farmland this year, and that Latin America is a target area. The company
     is already farming two million hectares of land outside China.

     Heilongjiang Beidahuang is also spending $1.5 billion to lease and
     develop farms on 300,000 hectares in Argentina's Rio Negro Province.
     Over a five- to 10-year period, the company plans to grow wheat, corn,
     soybeans, fruit, vegetables and wine grapes for export to China.

     The deals with local partners such as Cresud and the province of Rio
     Negro appear aimed at avoiding a backlash against foreign ownership of
     farmland in Argentina, since Heilongjiang Beidahuang won't be buying the
     land outright.

     President Cristina Fernandez has introduced legislation limiting land
     purchases by foreign individuals and companies to 1,000 hectares in
     rural areas, a move with popular support after a number of foreigners
     bought large holdings in recent years.

     Heilongjiang Beidahuang's incursion in agriculture comes hot on the
     heels of heavy Chinese investment in Argentina's oil sector.

     In February, Occidental Petroleum Corp. sold its local assets to China
     Petroleum & Chemical Corp. for $2.5 billion. Last year, China's Cnooc
     Ltd., in partnership with Argentina's Bridas Corp., agreed to buy a 60%
     stake in Pan American Energy from BP PLC for $7.1 billion.

     Deloitte predicts that Chinese investment will continue pouring into
     Latin America but expects a diversification in the future into other
     industries such as manufacturing, infrastructure and finance.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --
 Matt Gertken
 Senior Asia Pacific analyst
 US: +001.512.744.4085
 Mobile: +33(0)67.793.2417
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-06-20 16:45:46",1,"2012-03-05 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/80337_re-latam-eastasia-argentina-china-econ-hungry-china-shops-in.html","matt.gertken@stratfor.com","mailto:latam@stratfor.com","eastasia@stratfor.com,latam@stratfor.com,ben.preisler@stratfor.com",""
80990,"[alpha] INSIGHT - Russian & German deal over Moldova
","   SOURCE: MD101
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Washington & Chisinau
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Head of Moldovan Lobby in Washington, but lives
   partially in Chisinau & connected to most politicians
   PUBLICATION: yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

    

   During the meeting Tuesday between Merkel and Putin in Geneva, it was
   decided that the pair will attempt to strike a deal on Moldova, that would
   put the country more security under Moscow's influence.

    

   It is a \"German proposal\" being offered to the Moldovan and TD governments
   though Russia helped write it. The proposal is that the TDs will get
   representation (could be 5 or 15 percent, or proportional) inside of the
   Moldovan parliament.

    

   This would literally flip the government as the TDs would ally with the
   Commies, which would far outnumber the so-called pro-European coalition.
   Meaning, Russia would have a stable and pro-Russian government entrenched
   in Moldova, not a chaotic one.

    

   In return, Russia has offered to be \"open\" to allowing EU or OSCE
   peacekeepers into TD to help it patrol with its military. Not that Russia
   said they will, but that they are open to the possibility. Russia is
   comfortable with this as their troops would stay, and then they would have
   a firm pro-Russian Moldovan government.

    

   This German-Russian proposal is under the guise of the so-called EU-Russia
   Foreign Policy and Security Council-which hasn't even been formed and
   isn't even an EU council, as only Berlin and Moscow are talking.

    

   So now the Germans and Russians are talking to the Moldovans and TDs on
   this with Putin personally handling the TDs and Merkel the Moldovans.

    

   The reason why the Moldovans are even considering this is because it is a
   German proposal. The Moldovans (government and regular people) absolutely
   love German attention, as it makes them feel important. Moreover, the
   Germans are offering some carrots - economic investment and other ties.

    

   The ones in the ruling coalition who are doing the negotiations are Filat
   and the FM Yuri Lyanke, who is in Filat's party. Filat believes that if he
   not only gets an agreement on TD, gets Germany econ investment & is
   personally linked to Germany, then his popularity will soar. The coalition
   in Moldova is already shaky and the members of the coalition are willing
   to go their own ways if necessary. This could keep Filat in the political
   game no matter what happens. Filat is not pro-Western or pro-Russian, he
   is pro-himself, so he is looking out for his political future.

    

   Now, theoretically, any negotiation is not suppose to be German or Russian
   proposals, it is suppose to be a 5+2 proposal and be signed off by
   Brussels. But that is not how the Germans and Russians are doing this,
   because they know no one in Washington or Brussels will sign off on this.
   So if they can simply get Moldova and TD to sign off, then it is done.
   Washington and Brussels will push on the 21st for this new agreement to go
   through them, but Berlin and Moscow don't care and won't agree.

    

   The US is really not happy about any of this, but is not willing to stand
   up to the Russian over Moldova at this time, because of the other issues
   (LG: Afgh) between Moscow and Washington. So the US is going to ask 3rd
   parties to go pressure the Moldovans - mainly the Lithuanians, Poles,
   Romanians and Brits. The Romanians won't be any help as they simply have
   given up really caring about Moldova. They know the US is their security
   guarantee, so why care if the Russians are next door-they have the US.

    

   So, this will all be discussed on the 21st meeting in Moscow. It isn't
   that Russia and Germany will get the deal then, but this is the start. Now
   it comes down to the Poles, Lithuanians, and Brits convincing Filat that
   this is suicide.

    

    

    

    

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-06-16 20:40:23",1,"2012-03-05 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/80990_-alpha-insight-russian-and-german-deal-over-moldova-.html","clint.richards@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
81107,"[alpha] DHS - Sinaloa Drug Cartel Reference Guide
","     This document is part of a collection leaked by the anonymous hacker
     collective known as LulzSec.

     * 9 pages
     * For Official Use Only
     * Law Enforcement Sensitive
     * October 28, 2010
   --
   Cordially,
    
   David Dafinoiu
   President
    
   NorAm Intelligence
   Mobile: 646-678-2905
   david@dafinoiu.com
   dd@noramintel.com
   http://noramintel.com

   --
   Cordially,
    
   David Dafinoiu
   President
   NorAm Intelligence
   Mobile: 646-678-2905
   david@dafinoiu.com
   dd@noramintel.com
   http://noramintel.com
    
   
   The information contained in this facsimile or electronic message is
   confidential information intended for the use of the individual or entity
   named above. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient,
   or an employee or agent responsible for delivering this message to the
   intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, or
   copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If this message
   contains non-public personal information about any consumer or customer of
   the sender or intended recipient, you are further prohibited under penalty
   of law from using or disclosing the information to any third party by
   provisions of the federal Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act. If you have received
   this facsimile or electronic message in error, please immediately notify
   us by telephone or email and return or destroy the original message to
   assure that it is not read, copied, or distributed by others.
","2011-06-25 13:13:02",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/81107_-alpha-dhs-sinaloa-drug-cartel-reference-guide-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com","attach/10/10296_DHS - Mexico_T.pdf"
83830,"[Insight] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Asef Shawkat finally getting the boot?
","   PUBLICATION: Yes

   SOURCE: Syrian businessman w/cnxn to Makhlouf

   ATTRIBUTION: Source in Syria

   SOURCE  Reliability :  C 

   ITEM CREDIBILITY:  3 

   SPECIAL HANDLING: N/A

   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

    
   my note -- have been writing a lot on this -- see those analyses
   for reference. if htis is true, we are about to see some rumblings in the
   al Assad family regime.
    
    
   My source says Syrian president Bashar Asad has ordered his brother-in-law
   general Asef Shawkat to step down as the chief investigator in the
   assassination of Imad Muhniyye. Bashar's maternal cousin Rami Makhluf (my
   source has business dealings with him)has replaced Shawkat as the
   Mughniyye assassinmation investigator chief despite his modest
   credentials.

   My source says Hizbullah has protested to Asad against the appointment of
   Makhluf as the investigator. Hizbullah accuses Shawkat of having a key
   role in Mughniyye's assassination and demanded interrogating him as a
   primary suspect.

   My source says Syrian investigations have already revealed involvement by
   a Syrian army officer in Mughniyye's assassination. The officer collected
   detailed intelligence about Mughniyye's movements while in Syria and in
   the Biqaa vallye, during former's tenure in the central Biqaa as an
   intelligence officer during the 1990s. The officer discussed security
   matters with Mughniyye during two major Israeli military operations in
   Lebanon (Galilee Accountability Operation in July  1993 and the Grapes of
   Wrath in April 1996).
    
","2008-03-25 15:52:09",1,"2012-03-13 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/83830_-insight-insight-syria-asef-shawkat-finally-getting-the-boot.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:reporting@stratfor.com","reporting@stratfor.com",""
84934,"Re: The Business of Stratfor
","50","2011-07-05 01:15:30",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/84934_re-the-business-of-stratfor-.html","victoria.allen@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,friedman@att.blackberry.net","attach/10/10516_The Business of STRATFOR.docx"
85155,"[latam] BRAZIL - COUNTRY BRIEF AM 07052011
","   BRAZIL

   POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

   1)Over the weekend President Rousseff ordered Transport Minister Alfredo
   Nascimento to suspend several of his top aides following on the news
   magazine Veja claims the officials were charging a 5% kickback fee on
   projects coming through the ministry. A statement issued by Rousseff's
   office said she a**has confidencea** in Nascimento and that he was
   responsible for investigating the problems at the ministry. The president
   was scheduled to meet the minister this week to talk about the matter. The
   allegations and Rousseff's role in the suspensions could trigger more
   friction within the 10 parties that she relies on to pass legislation.
   Nascimento's Party of the Republic is small and shouldnA't cause her much
   trouble, however,  Rousseff's relations with bigger parties such as the
   PMDB have frayed due to disputes over budget cuts and appointments to
    government jobs.

   2)Rousseff expressed concern over situation of Brasiguayos during sideline
   meeting with Lugo. This is an issue that the Brazilian govt has been
   watching closely. Rousseff said that it is important that Brazil and
   Paraguay are on the same page on the fundamental problems of this issue.

    

   ECONOMY

   3)Brazil will continue to act to restrain the strength of its currency
   with intervention in the futures and derivatives markets among its
   possible options, said the country's finance minister on Tuesday.\"The
   government will continue to take measures to contain the overvaluation of
   exchange rate...We've taken measures on reserve requirements, we can take
   measures on derivative and futures. But these are not measures we will
   pre-announce,\" Guido Mantega told reporters in London.

   4)China will invest USD 4.5 billion in Brazil's technology sector this
   year, as Chinese investment in the Latin American country shifts from
   agriculture and mining. Chinese investment is expected to hit USD 9
   billion this year, with half of it going into high-tech industries,
   Alessandro Teixeira, deputy minister of Brazil's Ministry of Development,
   Industry and Foreign Trade, told China Daily.

   5)Brazilian poultry exports reached nearly USD 4 billion in the first
   half, an increase of 28.5% compared with the same period of last year.
   Approximately 2 million tons were shipped, a 6.8% increase using the same
   basis of comparison. The information was disclosed by the Brazilian
   Poultry Union (Ubabef, in the Portuguese acronym).

   6)Hyundai will invest USD 150 million to open factory in Rio, it will be
   HyundaiA's first factory outside of Asia.

   ENERGY

   7)Petrobras, said it has made two oil and natural gas discoveries off the
   coast of Espirito Santo state. The finds were located on the ocean floor,
   about 1,900 meters under water and 115 kilometers from the coast,
   Petrobras said in a press release. They were discovered as a consortium
   led by Petrobras was drilling at two wells known as Pe-de-moleque and
   Quindim. Petrobas expects oil production in the waters off Espirito Santo
   to roughly double by the end of this decade to around
   500,000 barrels per day, company officials have said.

   MILITARY

    

   8)Brazil gave USD 1.7 million to Paraguayan Army to be part of UN
   peacekeeping mission in Haiti, says US cable released by wikileaks. A
   Paraguayan official told the US embassy in Paraguay that this money was
   given when Paraguayan politicians started complaining about Mercosur and
   Itaipu in 2006. The US embassy also said that always when Paraguay starts
   complaining, Brazil gives Paraguay money to make them happy.

    

    

   Tuesday, July 5th 2011 - 06:08 UTC

   President Rousseff relations with 10 party coalition remain strained

   The six-month old administration of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseffa**s
   is again under strain following on her strong character reactions, thus
   casting doubts about the passing of her legislative agenda, which is
   already considerably delayed.

    

   Over the weekend President Rousseff ordered Transport Minister Alfredo
   Nascimento to suspend several of his top aides following on the news
   magazine Vejaclaims the officials were charging a 5% kickback fee on
   projects coming through the ministry.

   A statement issued by Rousseff's office said she a**has confidencea** in
   Nascimento and that he was responsible for investigating the problems at
   the ministry. The president was scheduled to meet the minister this week
   to talk about the matter.

   The allegations and Rousseff's role in the suspensions could trigger more
   friction within the 10 parties that she relies on to pass legislation.
   Nascimento's Party of the Republic is small, but Rousseff's relations with
   bigger parties such as the PMDB have frayed due to disputes over budget
   cuts and appointments to plum government jobs.

   The sour mood in Brasilia, highlighted by the resignation of Rousseff's
   chief of staff last month (Antonio Palloci) amid a separate scandal, has
   paralyzed key reforms such as an overhaul of the tax code, efforts to
   prepare Brazil to host the 2014 World Cup, the controversial forestry bill
   and disputes over the release of documents related to Brazila**s recent
   dictatorial past.

   Making things more complicated Defence Minister Nelson Jobim, a respected
   former magistrate and who held the same post with the administration of
   Lula da Silva lamented before a roomful of legislators last week that he
   has to tolerate an ever-greater number of a**idiots.a**

   Jobim, a PMDB leader, made the comments at an 80th birthday celebration
   for former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, a figurehead of the main
   opposition party. Jobim served as Cardoso's justice minister in the 1990s.

   Jobim also lauded Cardoso for a**never raising his voice toward anyonea**
   and a**never creating tension among his advisersa**, which many observers
   interpreted as a direct criticism of Rousseff, who has a reputation for
   dressing down subordinates in a loud and public fashion.

   After a long meeting with Rousseff on Friday, Jobim said his comments were
   misinterpreted, and that the a**idiotsa** were journalists who disparaged
   Cardoso's legacy.

   Jobim who also opposes declassifying documents from the time of the
   military dictatorship is apparently wishing to retire from government but
   has opted to remain in the job in part because his resignation could
   provoke an even greater crisis between Rousseff and the PMDB, the largest
   party in the ruling coalition.
    Dilma expresA^3 su preocupaciA^3n por las invasiones a los brasiguayos,
   admiten
   5 de Julio de 2011 00:00
   - http://www.abc.com.py/nota/dilma-expreso-su-preocupacion-por-las-invasiones-a-los-brasiguayos-admiten/

   El ministro de Relaciones Exteriores, Jorge Lara Castro, admitiA^3 ayer la
   preocupaciA^3n del Gobierno del Brasil sobre la situaciA^3n de brasiguayos
   del Alto ParanA!, manifestada por la mandataria brasileA+-a Dilma Rousseff
   al presidente Fernando Lugo en la reuniA^3n del Mercosur.

   Lara Castro dijo que la preocupaciA^3n de los denominados brasiguayos es
   la falta de titularidad de la propiedad. SeA+-alA^3 que hay personas que
   habAan adquirido las tierras en el Alto ParanA! de buena fe, pero que los
   tAtulos no estA!n regularizados. a**Se estA! haciendo el esfuerzo
   simultA!neamente para zanjar esa situaciA^3na**, declarA^3 ayer a radio
   Primero de Marzo.

   Se le indicA^3 que se percibe que los invasores de propiedades de
   brasiguayos, denominados campesinos sin tierra, cuentan con la
   protecciA^3n del Gobierno, puesto que se les estarAa proveyendo de
   alimento, ropas, extensiA^3n elA(c)ctrica, entre otras cosas, asA como
   tambiA(c)n protecciA^3n polAtica de algunas autoridades. a**La idea del
   Gobierno no es proteger a los invasores, sino tratar precisamente  de ir
   resolviendo estos problemas que hemos heredadoa**, dijo.

   Preguntado sobre quA(c) harA! la CancillerAa al respecto, puesto que la
   presidenta del Brasil, Dilma Rousseff, manifestA^3 su preocupaciA^3n al
   presidente Fernando Lugo, en ocasiA^3n de una reuniA^3n bilateral que
   mantuvieron la semana pasada en medio de la XLI Cumbre del Mercosur. a**Lo
   que pasa a nivel de ambos gobiernos y ambas cancillerAas, en primer lugar,
   es ponerse de acuerdo si se coincide en puntos fundamentales, y en ese
   sentido hay todo un proceso que se iniciA^3 a los efectos de ir
   resolviendo estos problemasa**, respondiA^3.

   a**Estuve presentea**, dijo Lara Castro

   Preguntado sobre si se enterA^3 de la preocupaciA^3n de la presidenta
   Dilma Rousseff sobre el acoso e invasiones que sufren los brasiguayos en
   el Alto ParanA!, Lara Castro dijo que A(c)l estuvo presente en la
   reuniA^3n de Lugo y Dilma, el pasado miA(c)rcoles en uno de los salones
   del Centro de Convenciones de la Conmebol. a**Yo estuve presentea**,
   manifestA^3 Lara Castro.

   AgregA^3 que asA como las autoridades del Brasil tienen preocupaciones con
   Paraguay, tambiA(c)n nuestro paAs tiene preocupaciones sobre algunos temas
   con el Brasil. MencionA^3 el tema energA(c)tico.

   Seguidamente dijo que la CancillerAa y la Presidencia de la RepA-oblica
   tienen toda la voluntad polAtica para avanzar en la bA-osqueda de
   soluciA^3n a la situaciA^3n planteada. a**Cada quien define sus
   coincidencias a nivel de CancillerAa, a nivel de Presidencia y bueno, lo
   que hacen es sumar esfuerzos para trabajar y de convencer a otros sectores
   que muchas veces tienen otra posiciA^3na**, puntualizA^3.

   ProhAben cosechar la producciA^3n

   En la vAspera se informA^3 que en A*acunday, Alto ParanA!, supuestos
   campesinos sin tierra provenientes del departamento de San Pedro
   impusieron la prohibiciA^3n de iniciar las tareas de cosecha a los
   productores brasiguayos de la zona. Los colonos estA!n desesperados,
   porque temen perder la cosecha, lo que significa la imposibilidad de pagar
   deudas contraAdas con bancos y cooperativas para financiar el cultivo de
   soja. Los productores afectados por esa situaciA^3n solicitaron
   intervenciA^3n del Ministerio PA-oblico y la PolicAa Nacional, exigiendo
   protecciA^3n de sus propiedades y cultivos. Si no hay respuesta de parte
   de los citados organismos, comunicaron que en diez dAas se organizarA!n
   para recuperar sus propiedades invadidas.

   Brazil finmin says will continue to act to curb FX overvaluation

    

   http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/05/brazil-finmin-idUSL6E7I50DK20110705

    

   LONDON, July 5 | Tue Jul 5, 2011 7:31am EDT

   (Reuters) - Brazil will continue to act to restrain the strength of its
   currency with intervention in the futures and derivatives markets among
   its possible options, said the country's finance minister on Tuesday.

   \"The government will continue to take measures to contain the
   overvaluation of exchange rate...We've taken measures on reserve
   requirements, we can take measures on derivative and futures. But these
   are not measures we will pre-announce,\" Guido Mantega told reporters in
   London, via a translator.

   Speaking at the sidelines of an investor conference, Mantega also said no
   credit and capital market bubbles were forming in Latin America's
   largesteconomy despite its robust expansion.

   \"As far as inflation is concerned, the rate is decreasing. All indicators
   point to the deceleration of inflation. Next month, inflation will be
   lower because commodity (prices) are lower, fuel and gasoline prices are
   lower,\" he said.

   Brazil's real closed on Monday at its strongest level against the dollar
   in 12 years with inflows from Asia reportedly boosting the currency.

   \"We have always taken measures to adjust growth to our potential...If
   necessary the central bank will keep raising interest rates but that's the
   decision of the central bank,\" Mantega added.

   The minister said the economy was on track for growth of 4.5 percent --
   higher than the 4.0 percent forecast by the central bank and analysts'
   forecast of 3.94 percent.

   Mantega also said that the country had achieved more than half of its
   primary surplus target this year and that the government's reform agenda
   included reducing investments taxes. (Reporting bySebastian Tong, editing
   by Natsuko Waki)

    

    

                 Chinese capital eyes Brazil's high-tech sector

         

        http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-07/05/content_12833004.htm

        By Tuo Yannan (China Daily)
        Updated: 2011-07-05 07:10

         

   RIO DE JANEIRO - China will invest $4.5 billion in Brazil's technology
   sector this year, as Chinese investment in the Latin American country
   shifts from agriculture and mining.

   Chinese investment is expected to hit $9 billion this year, with half of
   it going into high-tech industries, Alessandro Teixeira, deputy minister
   of Brazil's Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade, told
   China Daily.

    

   China has been Brazil's biggest trading partner since 2009, a position
   previously held by the United States.

   Cumulative foreign direct investment (FDI) from China to Brazil reached
   $12.67 billion by the end of 2009, according to Banco Bradesco SA, one of
   Brazil's biggest banks, with agriculture and mining each receiving about
   20 percent.

   Brazil has been urging Chinese companies to invest in non-raw material
   sectors to help balance its economy.

   Teixeira said that Brazil has banned farming businesses established solely
   through foreign investment. The government in Brazil welcomes Chinese
   companies cooperating with Brazilian partners in producing agricultural
   products, such as soybean oil, he said.

   \"That is the kind of partnership that China and Brazil are looking forward
   to.\"

   In 2008, Zhejiang Fudi Agriculture Group and the agricultural bureau of
   Heilongjiang province invested $158.4 million to form a joint venture with
   a Brazilian partner to grow soybean, according to the department of
   commerce in Zhejiang province. The company built two farms, in the north
   and south of Brazil, with a total area of 166.37 hectares.

   China and Brazil regard each other as key partners in their global
   strategy.

   Brazil accounts for 40 percent of Latin America's economy and Teixeira
   predicted that this will rise to 50 percent in the next 10 years.

   Trade between the two countries has increased dramatically during the last
   decade, surging 16-fold between 2001 to 2010.

   \"Seventy percent of the trade between Brazil and China is basically
   commodities,\" Teixeira explained. \"But we are keen to improve commercial
   relations in medium and high-end technology.\"

   China's investment in Brazil was less than $300 million in 2009, but
   skyrocketed to $17 billion in 2010, making China the largest foreign
   investor in Brazil.

   Teixeira said the Brazilian government has reached an agreement with China
   to foster FDI in the high-tech sector.

   \"The trend is that China will invest more in the technology sector,\"
   Marcos Almeida, a partner at Ernst & Young Terco, told China Daily.

   Chinese companies, such as telecom equipment makers ZTE and Huawei
   Technologies Co, have invested heavily in Brazil in recent years.

   ZTE has set up an industrial park in Hortolandia, close to Sao Paulo. The
   company recorded $600 million in sales revenue last year and is expected
   to reach $1 billion this year.

   \"The Brazil market accounts for about 9 percent of ZTE's overseas revenue.
   The country is crucial for our company's development in Latin America,\"
   Yuan Lie, president of ZTE South America Region, told China Daily.
   Products from the industrial park will be shipped to other Latin America
   countries, he said.

   Zhuhai Gree Electric Appliances Inc was one of the first Chinese companies
   to enter the Brazilian market in 1998 and now ranks fourth there. It
   invested $2 million to build a manufacturing plant in 1999, with an annual
   output of 300,000 units. Gree sold 400,000 air conditioners in Brazil last
   year and plans to double the number this year while competing with
   international brands such as LG Electronics Inc.

   Teixeira said both Brazil and China need to gain more experience in
   investing abroad.

   \"We need to join together as strategic partners to enter new markets.\"

    04/07/2011 - 14:32

    Agribusiness

  Poultry exports reach US$ 4 billion

   http://www2.anba.com.br/noticia_agronegocios.kmf?cod=12076571

    

   Revenues from foreign sales grew by 28.5% in the first half. The volume
   shipped increased by 6.8%. The Middle East remained the leading market.

   From the Newsroom*

   SA-L-o Paulo a** Brazilian poultry exports reached nearly US$ 4 billion in
   the first half, an increase of 28.5% compared with the same period of last
   year. Approximately 2 million tonnes were shipped, a 6.8% increase using
   the same basis of comparison. The information was disclosed this
   Monday (4th) by the Brazilian Poultry Union (Ubabef, in the Portuguese
   acronym).

   According to a statement issued by the Ubabef, its CEO, Francisco Turra,
   claimed that the growth could have been greater, if it were not for the
   depreciation of the dollar against the real (Brazilian currency), which
   theoretically makes Brazilian products more expensive abroad.

   a**The truth of the matter is that we could have had even stronger growth,
   due to increased international market demand. However, we are losing
   competitiveness by the hour. Thus, we maintain our growth forecast of
   between 3% and 5% in shipments [in 2011],a** said the executive, according
   to the statement.

   The Middle East remained the leading target region for Brazilian exports.
   Revenues from sales to the region totalled US$ 1.36 billion, an increase
   of 31.7% over the first quarter of 2010. A total of 718,000 tonnes were
   shipped, growth of 8.6% using the same basis of comparison.

   Asia ranked second among the target markets for Brazilian products,
   followed by the European Union, Africa, the Americas and non-EU European
   countries.

   Hoje A s 09h46 - Atualizada hoje A s 09h48

      Hyundai instalarA! no Rio de Janeiro primeira fA!brica fora da A*sia

No empreendimento, que deve ficar pronto em 2012, serA-L-o investidos US$ 150
milhAues

    

   http://www.jb.com.br/rio/noticias/2011/07/05/hyundai-instalara-no-rio-de-janeiro-primeira-fabrica-fora-da-asia/

   A Hyundai Heavy Industries vai instalar em Itatiaia, no Sul Fluminense,
   sua primeira fA!brica fora da A*sia. QuestAues como o grande investimento
   em infraestrutura, logAstica favorA!vel e a visibilidade conferida pela
   Copa de 2014 e os Jogos OlAmpicos de 2016 favoreceram a escolha da empresa
   pelo Rio de Janeiro, que saiu A  frente de Minas Gerais e EspArito Santo.

   A unidade, instalada numa A!rea de 550 mil metros quadrados prA^3ximo ao
   quilA'metro 316 da Rodovia Presidente Dutra, produzirA!, por ano, atA(c)
   cinco milmA!quinas para construAS:A-L-o pesada e contarA! ainda com um
   centro de treinamento de mA-L-o-de-obra. A previsA-L-o A(c) que a fA!brica
   seja concluAda no fim de 2012 e gere 1.500 empregos diretos atA(c) 2015,
   quando atingirA! o pico de operaAS:A-L-o. 

   A Hyundai negocia a instalaAS:A-L-o de fornecedores coreanos na regiA-L-o.
   No empreendimento, que conta com o apoio da Companhia de Desenvolvimento
   Industrial do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (Codin) e terA! a Brasil MA!quinas
   como sA^3cia minoritA!ria, serA-L-o investidos US$ 150 milhAues. Com a
   parceria, a parcela brasileira na receita total do grupo saltarA! de 6%
   para 20%. Apesar de o Brasil representar o quarto mercado consumidor da
   Hyundai a** atrA!s de China, RA-ossia e Estados Unidos a** 40% do total da
   produAS:A-L-o serA-L-o exportados, principalmente para paAses das
   AmA(c)ricas Central, do Norte e do Sul.

   Segundo o vice-governador e secretA!rio de obras, Luiz Fernando PezA-L-o,
   que articulou a negociaAS:A-L-o, o alinhamento polAtico entre as trA-as
   esferas de governo possibilita a implementaAS:A-L-o de diversos projetos e
   investimentos, alA(c)m de melhorar a eficiA-ancia dagestA-L-o pA-oblica.

   \"Nosso governo trabalha diuturnamente para promover negA^3cios e
   desenvolver a economia do Estado. Vivemos um momento histA^3rico, de
   transformaAS:A-L-o. Essa conjuntura A(c) reflexo da desburocratizaAS:A-L-o
   e do esforAS:o da administraAS:A-L-o estadual em dar mais eficA!cia e
   transparA-ancia A  gestA-L-o. Conseguimos racionalizar e diminuir o tempo
   para a abertura de empresas, alA(c)m de descentralizar o processo para o
   interior, aumentando significativamente o nA-omero de empresas abertas no
   Rio nos A-oltimos anos. A Hyundai A(c) uma delas\", afirma PezA-L-o.

   Para Alexandre Germano, do Conselho de AdministraAS:A-L-o da Brasil
   MA!quinas, a localizaAS:A-L-o estratA(c)gica do Rio foi fundamental para a
   instalaAS:A-L-o da unidade no Estado. \"Os empresA!rios estrangeiros tA-am
   uma visA-L-o muito positiva sobre o Rio de Janeiro e perceberam que o
   cenA!rio A(c) favorA!vel para grandes investimentos. A Hyundai jA! estA!
   presente no Estado na construAS:A-L-o de estaleiros no Porto do AAS:u, em
   parceria com Eike Batista, e tem grande interesse em expandir seus
   negA^3cios\", afirma Germano.

   Today at 9:46 a.m. - Updated today at 9:48 a.m. 
   Hyundai will install in Rio de Janeiro first plant outside of Asia 
   In the enterprise, which should be ready in 2012, will invest U.S. $ 150
   million 

   Hyundai Heavy Industries will install in Itatiaia, Rio de Janeiro State in
   the South, its first plant outside of Asia. Issues such as the large
   investment in infrastructure, favorable logistics and visibility afforded
   by the 2014 World Cup and the Olympics in 2016 favored the selection of
   the company in Rio de Janeiro, which came ahead of Minas Gerais and
   Espirito Santo. 

   The unit, installed in an area of a**a**550 square meters near the 316 km
   from Presidente Dutra highway, will produce per year for up to five
   milmA!quinas heavy construction and will also include a center for
   manpower training. The factory is expected to be completed in late 2012
   and generate 1,500 direct jobs by 2015, when it will peak operation. 

   Hyundai is negotiating the installation of Korean suppliers in the
   region. In the enterprise, which has the support of the Industrial
   Development Company of the State of Rio de Janeiro (Codin) and Brazil have
   the machines as a minority partner, will invest U.S. $ 150 million. With
   the partnership, the Brazilian share in total revenue of the group jumped
   from 6% to 20%. Although Brazil is the fourth Hyundai consumer market -
   behind China, Russia and the United States - 40% of total production is
   exported, mainly to countries of Central, North and South 

   According to the deputy governor and secretary of works, Luiz Fernando
   Bigfoot, who supervised the negotiations, the political alignment between
   the three spheres of government enables the implementation of various
   projects and investments, and improve the efficiency Dagestan public. 

   \"Our government daily work to promote business and develop the state's
   economy. We live a historical moment of transformation. This situation
   reflects the bureaucracy and the state government's effort to give more
   effective and transparent management. We were able to streamline and
   shorten the time to start a business, and to decentralize the process to
   the interior, significantly increasing the number of listed companies in
   Rio in recent years. Hyundai is one of them, \"said Silva. 

   For Alexandre Germano, the Board of Directors of Brazil machines, the
   strategic location of Rio was instrumental in installing the unit in the
   state. \"Foreign businessmen have a very positive view on the Rio de
   Janeiro and realized that the scenario is favorable for large investments.
   Hyundai is already present in the state in building shipyards at the Port
   of Acu, in partnership with Batista, and has great interest in expanding
   their businesses, \"said Germano.

   Paulo Gregoire
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
   Paulo Gregoire
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com

Brazil Petrobras Makes Two Oil Finds Off Espirito Santo Coast

   By Paul Kiernan

   Published July 04, 2011

   http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2011/07/04/brazil-petrobras-makes-two-oil-finds-off-espirito-santo-coast/

   AO PAULO -(Dow Jones)- Brazil's state-run oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro SA
   (PBR, PETR4.BR), or Petrobras, said Monday it has made two oil and
   natural gas discoveries off the coast of Espirito Santo state.The finds
   were located on the ocean floor, about 1,900 meters under water and 115
   kilometers from the coast, Petrobras said in a press release. They were
   discovered as a consortium led by Petrobras was drilling at two wells
   known as Pe-de-moleque and Quindim.

   |

   Petrobas expects oil production in the waters off Espirito Santo to
   roughly double by the end of this decade to around
   500,000 barrels per day, company officials have said.

   05/07/2011 - 08h02

   Brasil deu US$ 1,7 mi para militares paraguaios, diz telegrama

   http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/938945-brasil-deu-us-17-mi-para-militares-paraguaios-diz-telegrama.shtml

   Em 2006, o governo brasileiro deu ao ExA(c)rcito do Paraguai uma ajuda de
   US$ 1,7 milhA-L-o para que integrasse a missA-L-o de paz no Haiti, segundo
   telegrama da Embaixada dos EUA em AssunAS:A-L-o.

   O dinheiro foi usado para o conserto de 40 veAculos blindados e a compra
   de equipamentos para 30 militares.

   WikiLeaks processarA! sites de pagamento para receber doaAS:Aues
   Veja especial sobre os telegramas divulgados pelo Wikileaks

   De acordo com documento vazado pelo site WikiLeaks e divulgado pela
   agA-ancia PA-oblica, um militar paraguaio contou aos americanos que o
   apoio surgiu apA^3s crAticas de polAticos do paAs vizinho em relaAS:A-L-o
   ao Mercosul e A  Usina de Itaipu.

   Para a embaixada, sempre que os paraguaios reclamam dessas questAues, o
   Brasil oferece algum dinheiro para \"fazA-a-los felizes\".

   No mesmo ano, os dois paAses fecharam um memorando de entendimento em Nova
   York para o envio de uma tropa paraguaia com 30 militares para o Haiti.

   Segundo o MinistA(c)rio da Defesa, o acordo existe e desde 2007 o BrasAl
   repassa R$ 120 mil por ano para custear os soldados paraguaios que
   estA-L-o no Haiti.

    

   Brazil gave $ 1.7 million for Paraguayan military said telegram
   In 2006, the Brazilian government gave the Army a Paraguay help of $ 1.7
   million to integrate the peacekeeping mission in Haiti,telegram from U.S.
   Embassy in Asuncion.
   The money was used for the repair of 40 armored vehicles and the purchase
   of military equipment to 30.
   WikiLeaks sites will process payment for donations
   See special about the cables released by Wikileaks
   According to a document leaked by Wikileaks site and published
   by Public Agency, a Paraguayan military told the Americans
   thatsupport came after criticism from politicians from the neighboring
   country in relation to Mercosur and the Itaipu Dam.
   For the embassy, where the Paraguayans claim these issues, Brazil
   offers some money to \"make them happy.\"
   In the same year, the two countries inked a memorandum of understanding in
   New York to send a troop of 30 Paraguayantroops to Haiti.
   According to the Ministry of Defence, the agreement exists since
   2007 and Brazil passes $ 120 thousand per year to pay for theParaguayan
   troops who are in Haiti.

   Paulo Gregoire
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com

   Paulo Gregoire
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-07-05 15:54:45",1,"2012-03-13 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/85155_-latam-brazil-country-brief-am-07052011-.html","paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com","mailto:latam@stratfor.com","rbaker@stratfor.com,latam@stratfor.com",""
85390,"[latam] PUP Brief 110705 - AM
","   PUP Brief
   110705 - AM

   PARAGUAY
     * Rousseff expressed concern over situation of Brasiguayos during
       sideline meeting with Lugo, according to FM Castro
     * Pres Lugo met with Frente Guasu and some friendly members from PLRA
       after 2 months of paused dialog, re-election bid suspected topic of
       conversation
     * Brazil gave USD 1.7 million to Paraguayan Army to be part of UN
       peacekeeping mission in Haiti, says US cable released by wikileaks
     * Paraguay and Uruguay claim Argentina is obstructing regional power
       agreement
   URUGUAY
     * Paraguay and Uruguay claim Argentina is obstructing regional power
       agreement
     * Idustry at 61% capacity in 1Q of this year
     * Govt to seek stronger presence on the boards of ASSE, BPS and Codicen
       to avoid potential for future conflicts
   PERU
     * Humala arrives in US today to meet with OAS head, meets with Clinton,
       Obama tomorrow
     * Natl Police capture current, pregnant girlfriend of SL leader Camarada
       Artemio
     * US ambassador highlights Humala's determination to fight drug
       trafficking, continue cooperation
     * Peru Posible to support Gana Peru, especially in areas of maintaining
       economic growth, social inclusion and better distribution of resources
       to marginalized sectors
   PARAGUAY
   Dilma expresA^3 su preocupaciA^3n por las invasiones a los brasiguayos,
   admiten
   5 de Julio de 2011 00:00 -
   http://www.abc.com.py/nota/dilma-expreso-su-preocupacion-por-las-invasiones-a-los-brasiguayos-admiten/

   El ministro de Relaciones Exteriores, Jorge Lara Castro, admitiA^3 ayer la
   preocupaciA^3n del Gobierno del Brasil sobre la situaciA^3n de brasiguayos
   del Alto ParanA!, manifestada por la mandataria brasileA+-a Dilma Rousseff
   al presidente Fernando Lugo en la reuniA^3n del Mercosur.

   Lara Castro dijo que la preocupaciA^3n de los denominados brasiguayos es
   la falta de titularidad de la propiedad. SeA+-alA^3 que hay personas que
   habAan adquirido las tierras en el Alto ParanA! de buena fe, pero que los
   tAtulos no estA!n regularizados. a**Se estA! haciendo el esfuerzo
   simultA!neamente para zanjar esa situaciA^3na**, declarA^3 ayer a radio
   Primero de Marzo.

   Se le indicA^3 que se percibe que los invasores de propiedades de
   brasiguayos, denominados campesinos sin tierra, cuentan con la
   protecciA^3n del Gobierno, puesto que se les estarAa proveyendo de
   alimento, ropas, extensiA^3n elA(c)ctrica, entre otras cosas, asA como
   tambiA(c)n protecciA^3n polAtica de algunas autoridades. a**La idea del
   Gobierno no es proteger a los invasores, sino tratar precisamente  de ir
   resolviendo estos problemas que hemos heredadoa**, dijo.

   Preguntado sobre quA(c) harA! la CancillerAa al respecto, puesto que la
   presidenta del Brasil, Dilma Rousseff, manifestA^3 su preocupaciA^3n al
   presidente Fernando Lugo, en ocasiA^3n de una reuniA^3n bilateral que
   mantuvieron la semana pasada en medio de la XLI Cumbre del Mercosur. a**Lo
   que pasa a nivel de ambos gobiernos y ambas cancillerAas, en primer lugar,
   es ponerse de acuerdo si se coincide en puntos fundamentales, y en ese
   sentido hay todo un proceso que se iniciA^3 a los efectos de ir
   resolviendo estos problemasa**, respondiA^3.

   a**Estuve presentea**, dijo Lara Castro

   Preguntado sobre si se enterA^3 de la preocupaciA^3n de la presidenta
   Dilma Rousseff sobre el acoso e invasiones que sufren los brasiguayos en
   el Alto ParanA!, Lara Castro dijo que A(c)l estuvo presente en la
   reuniA^3n de Lugo y Dilma, el pasado miA(c)rcoles en uno de los salones
   del Centro de Convenciones de la Conmebol. a**Yo estuve presentea**,
   manifestA^3 Lara Castro.

   AgregA^3 que asA como las autoridades del Brasil tienen preocupaciones con
   Paraguay, tambiA(c)n nuestro paAs tiene preocupaciones sobre algunos temas
   con el Brasil. MencionA^3 el tema energA(c)tico.

   Seguidamente dijo que la CancillerAa y la Presidencia de la RepA-oblica
   tienen toda la voluntad polAtica para avanzar en la bA-osqueda de
   soluciA^3n a la situaciA^3n planteada. a**Cada quien define sus
   coincidencias a nivel de CancillerAa, a nivel de Presidencia y bueno, lo
   que hacen es sumar esfuerzos para trabajar y de convencer a otros sectores
   que muchas veces tienen otra posiciA^3na**, puntualizA^3.

   ProhAben cosechar la producciA^3n

   En la vAspera se informA^3 que en A*acunday, Alto ParanA!, supuestos
   campesinos sin tierra provenientes del departamento de San Pedro
   impusieron la prohibiciA^3n de iniciar las tareas de cosecha a los
   productores brasiguayos de la zona. Los colonos estA!n desesperados,
   porque temen perder la cosecha, lo que significa la imposibilidad de pagar
   deudas contraAdas con bancos y cooperativas para financiar el cultivo de
   soja. Los productores afectados por esa situaciA^3n solicitaron
   intervenciA^3n del Ministerio PA-oblico y la PolicAa Nacional, exigiendo
   protecciA^3n de sus propiedades y cultivos. Si no hay respuesta de parte
   de los citados organismos, comunicaron que en diez dAas se organizarA!n
   para recuperar sus propiedades invadidas.

   ugo retoma diA!logo con los liberales que aceptan su plan
   5 de Julio de 2011 00:00 -
   http://www.abc.com.py/nota/lugo-retoma-dialogo-con-los-liberales-que-aceptan-su-plan/

   Lugo invitA^3 ayer a almorzar a los liberales mA!s abiertos a su plan de
   reelecciA^3n, Llano y GA^3mez Verlangieri. Participaron ademA!s los
   senadores Carlos Filizzola y Sixto Pereira, impulsores de la enmienda por
   el a**rekutua** presidencial.

   El encuentro fue iniciativa del presidente Fernando Lugo con el fin de
   retomar el diA!logo entre el PLRA y el Frente Guasu (concertaciA^3n
   socialista), luego de dos meses de pausa. No fueron invitados los
   liberales que solAan asistir al almuerzo en la residencia presidencial,
   como es el caso del diputado VActor RAos (efrainista) y los senadores Luis
   A. Wagner y Julio CA(c)sar Franco. Estos, casualmente, mantienen una
   postura contraria a la reelecciA^3n presidencial, lo que serAa el motivo
   de que fueran excluidos del almuerzo.  

   El titular del PLRA, senador Blas Llano; y el vicepresidente del
   Directorio liberal, RamA^3n GA^3mez Verlanguieri, con posiciones mA!s
   ambiguas sobre el tema de la enmienda constitucional pro Lugo, fueron los
   A-onicos del partido convocados por el Presidente.  Por parte del Frente
   Guasu, estuvieron los parlamentarios Filizzola y Pereira, organizadores de
   la campaA+-a de recolecciA^3n de firmas para la enmienda constitucional
   para habilitar a Lugo a competir por un perAodo mA!s. El jefe de gabinete
   de la Presidencia, Miguel LA^3pez Perito tambiA(c)n participA^3 del
   encuentro.  

   Fuentes del Gobierno aseguran que el Presidente se vio obligado a retomar
   el diA!logo semanal con los liberales, atendiendo los A-oltimos
   acontecimientos en el Congreso, donde los opositores lograron apoderarse
   de las mesas directivas de ambas cA!maras del Parlamento.  

   Filizzola comentA^3 que el almuerzo convocado por Lugo fue para retomar el
   diA!logo con las fuerzas que forman parte de la Alianza PatriA^3tica para
   el Cambio (APC). a**Como reinicio del encuentro entre el PLRA y Frente
   Guasu fueron invitados solo dos liberales y dos de la concertaciA^3n
   socialista. La idea es recomenzar el encuentro semanal para volver a
   conversar sobre los proyectos nuevos y viejos que estA!n en el
   Parlamentoa**, dijo el titular de PPS.

   CrAticas

   Lugo suspendiA^3 sugestivamente en mayo el almuerzo semanal que suele
   compartir con referentes del PLRA y la izquierda, en coincidencia con las
   duras crAticas que provienen de dirigentes azules por su proyecto de
   reelecciA^3n. Una de las inquietudes del sector liberal consistAa en que
   el Presidente comenzA^3 a incluir a los dirigentes socialistas en las
   reuniones que mantenAa con el partido. En el A-oltimo encuentro Lugo-PLRA
   se conversA^3 sobre  refundar la Alianza con miras al 2013 y la
   elaboraciA^3n de un plan programA!tico para el prA^3ximo perAodo, ademA!s
   de ver los proyectos a ser financiados con los US$ 240 millones  de
   Brasil.  

   Lugo returns to dialogue with the Liberals who accept their plan

   Lugo lunch yesterday invited the liberals more open to his plan for
   re-election, Llano and GA^3mez Verlangieri. Senators also attended
   Filizzola and Sixto Carlos Pereira, proponents of the amendment by the
   \"rekutu\" presidential.

   Plain and Lugo had lunch yesterday in Mburuvicha Roga. This time, the
   liberal anti-re not invited.
   The meeting was initiated by President Fernando Lugo in order to resume
   the dialogue between the PLRA and the Front Guasu (social partnership),
   after two month break. Liberals were not invited to attend the lunch that
   used in the presidential residence, such as deputy VActor RAos (Ephraim)
   and Senators Luis A. Wagner and Julio Cesar Franco. These, incidentally,
   remain a stand against presidential reelection, which would be the reason
   they were excluded from lunch.

   The owner of the PLRA, Senator Blas Llano, and the Vice president of
   liberal, RamA^3n GA^3mez Verlanguieri with ambiguous positions on the
   issue of the constitutional amendment pro Lugo, were the only party
   convened by the President. On the Front Guasu parliamentarians were
   Filizzola and Pereira, organizers of the campaign to collect signatures
   for a constitutional amendment to enable Lugo to compete for a longer
   period. The chief of staff of the President, Miguel Lopez Perito also
   attending the meeting.

   Government sources say the President was forced to resume talks with the
   liberal weekly, following the latest developments in Congress, where
   opponents were able to seize the boards of both houses of Parliament.

   Filizzola said that lunch was organized by Lugo to resume dialogue with
   the forces that are part of the Patriotic Alliance for Change (APC). \"I
   reset the encounter between the PLRA and Guasu Front were invited only two
   Liberals and two social dialogue. The idea is to restart the weekly
   meeting to return to discuss new and old projects that are in parliament,
   \"said the head of PPS.

   Reviews

   Lugo suggestively in May suspended the weekly lunch usually share
   concerning the PLRA and the left, to coincide with the harsh criticisms
   that come from blue for their project leaders for reelection. One of the
   concerns of the liberal was that the President began to include the
   socialist leaders in the meetings he had with the game. At the last
   meeting they discussed Lugo-PLRA on reshaping the Alliance with a view to
   2013 and developing a programmatic plan for the next period, and view the
   projects to be funded with $ 240 million in Brazil.

         Brasil deu US$ 1,7 mi para militares paraguaios, diz telegrama

   http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/938945-brasil-deu-us-17-mi-para-militares-paraguaios-diz-telegrama.shtml

   Em 2006, o governo brasileiro deu ao ExA(c)rcito do Paraguai uma ajuda de
   US$ 1,7 milhA-L-o para que integrasse a missA-L-o de paz no Haiti, segundo
   telegrama da Embaixada dos EUA em AssunAS:A-L-o.

   O dinheiro foi usado para o conserto de 40 veAculos blindados e a compra
   de equipamentos para 30 militares.

   WikiLeaks processarA! sites de pagamento para receber doaAS:Aues
   Veja especial sobre os telegramas divulgados pelo Wikileaks

   De acordo com documento vazado pelo site WikiLeaks e divulgado pela
   agA-ancia PA-oblica, um militar paraguaio contou aos americanos que o
   apoio surgiu apA^3s crAticas de polAticos do paAs vizinho em relaAS:A-L-o
   ao Mercosul e A  Usina de Itaipu.

   Para a embaixada, sempre que os paraguaios reclamam dessas questAues, o
   Brasil oferece algum dinheiro para \"fazA-a-los felizes\".

   No mesmo ano, os dois paAses fecharam um memorando de entendimento em Nova
   York para o envio de uma tropa paraguaia com 30 militares para o Haiti.

   Segundo o MinistA(c)rio da Defesa, o acordo existe e desde 2007 o BrasAl
   repassa R$ 120 mil por ano para custear os soldados paraguaios que
   estA-L-o no Haiti.

   Brazil gave $ 1.7 million for Paraguayan military said telegram
   In 2006, the Brazilian government gave the Army a Paraguay help of $ 1.7
   million to integrate the peacekeeping mission in Haiti,telegram from U.S.
   Embassy in Asuncion.
   The money was used for the repair of 40 armored vehicles and the purchase
   of military equipment to 30.
   WikiLeaks sites will process payment for donations
   See special about the cables released by Wikileaks
   According to a document leaked by Wikileaks site and published
   by Public Agency, a Paraguayan military told the Americans
   thatsupport came after criticism from politicians from the neighboring
   country in relation to Mercosur and the Itaipu Dam.
   For the embassy, where the Paraguayans claim these issues, Brazil
   offers some money to \"make them happy.\"
   In the same year, the two countries inked a memorandum of understanding in
   New York to send a troop of 30 Paraguayantroops to Haiti.
   According to the Ministry of Defence, the agreement exists since
   2007 and Brazil passes $ 120 thousand per year to pay for theParaguayan
   troops who are in Haiti.

   Paraguay and Uruguay claim Argentina is obstructing regional power
   agreement
   July 5th 2011 - 00:20 UTC -
   http://en.mercopress.com/2011/07/05/paraguay-and-uruguay-claim-argentina-is-obstructing-regional-power-agreement

   Argentina is delaying the sale of Paraguayan power to the Uruguayan market
   (which must cross Argentine territory) for reasons a**as least publiclya**
   unknown for both sides interested in the deal, according to the Uruguayan
   and Paraguayan press.

   Argentinaa**s Julio De Vido, the a**bad guya** of the picture
   Argentinaa**s Julio De Vido, the a**bad guya** of the picture

   a**Both countries are quite disappointed with Argentinaa**s attitudea**
   since last March it was agreed, at a regional energy summit to begin
   implementing the agreement but a**so far things remain unchangeda** said
   the press reports.

   Paraguay has a surplus of power, given the huge hydroelectric complexes it
   shares with Brazil and Argentina, Itaipu and Yacireta, and Uruguay is
   short of power because of increased residential consumption and several
   major industries that have established in the country.

   However transporting the surplus electricity from land-locked Paraguay to
   Uruguay it means making use of the Argentine grid.

   Paraguayan Deputy mining and Energy minister Mercedes Canese said a**there
   are only a few details in the contract that need polishing, and this
   should mean no impediment to begin the sale of power to Uruguaya**.

   Furthermore Paraguay that hosted the last Mercosur presidential summit at
   the end of June was most surprised when the Argentine president Cristina
   Fernandez did not turn up after at last minute cancel alleging medical
   reasons.

   This had led diplomats from Paraguay and Uruguay to believe Mrs Kirchner
   was not interested in having to address the issue with her peers Jose
   Mujica and Fernando Lugo.

   a**The only thing missing for power to begin flowing is that President
   Cristina Fernandez tells the engineers the authorization has been
   approveda**, said Paraguayan diplomatic sources.

   Deputy minister Mercedes Canese said Paraguay was willing to pay Argentina
   10 US dollars per MW/hour for grid toll concepts, a**since this is the
   regional rate for other operators and the rate can not be higher for
   Paraguaya**.

   Apparently the Uruguayan government is also furious with Argentine Federal
   Planning Minister Julio De Vido who first refused to have the agreement
   included in a joint declaration, later said a three sides committee was
   unnecessary and later he appeals a**to the resource of blaming
   alternatively the Uruguayans or the Paraguayans for ignoring rules for the
   inter-connectiona**.

   Apparently another excuse from the Argentines to Uruguay is that Paraguay
   a**cana**t demonstrate that the power does not come from the YaciretA!
   hydroelectric dam, since surplus from that dam can only be sold to
   Argentina under existing contract clausesa**.

   In reality the Paraguayan power is to come from a smaller dam, Acaray,
   which is not part either of the ItaipA-o or YaciretA! complexes.

   But Uruguayan sources believe the obstacles can be tracked not to
   technical or economic issues but simply because the a**administration of
   President Cristina Kirchner wants Paraguay to have an only client for its
   power, the Argentine marketa**.

   a**Step by step technical problems have been solved and now we are in the
   stage of negotiations with Argentina, and solving existent legal problems;
   the energy problem is a regional challenge and we are focused on ita**,
   said Uruguayan Foreign Affaire minister Luis Almagro when asked about the
   delay.

   More bluntly Paraguayan Deputy Minister Canese says ita**s all up to De
   Vido, a**he keeps presenting the Uruguayans with unacceptable terms and
   only wants to ensure Paraguay becomes a prisoner of Argentina for its
   electricity exporta**.

   URUGUAY
   Paraguay and Uruguay claim Argentina is obstructing regional power
   agreement
   July 5th 2011 - 00:20 UTC -
   http://en.mercopress.com/2011/07/05/paraguay-and-uruguay-claim-argentina-is-obstructing-regional-power-agreement

   Argentina is delaying the sale of Paraguayan power to the Uruguayan market
   (which must cross Argentine territory) for reasons a**as least publiclya**
   unknown for both sides interested in the deal, according to the Uruguayan
   and Paraguayan press.

   Argentinaa**s Julio De Vido, the a**bad guya** of the picture
   Argentinaa**s Julio De Vido, the a**bad guya** of the picture

   a**Both countries are quite disappointed with Argentinaa**s attitudea**
   since last March it was agreed, at a regional energy summit to begin
   implementing the agreement but a**so far things remain unchangeda** said
   the press reports.

   Paraguay has a surplus of power, given the huge hydroelectric complexes it
   shares with Brazil and Argentina, Itaipu and Yacireta, and Uruguay is
   short of power because of increased residential consumption and several
   major industries that have established in the country.

   However transporting the surplus electricity from land-locked Paraguay to
   Uruguay it means making use of the Argentine grid.

   Paraguayan Deputy mining and Energy minister Mercedes Canese said a**there
   are only a few details in the contract that need polishing, and this
   should mean no impediment to begin the sale of power to Uruguaya**.

   Furthermore Paraguay that hosted the last Mercosur presidential summit at
   the end of June was most surprised when the Argentine president Cristina
   Fernandez did not turn up after at last minute cancel alleging medical
   reasons.

   This had led diplomats from Paraguay and Uruguay to believe Mrs Kirchner
   was not interested in having to address the issue with her peers Jose
   Mujica and Fernando Lugo.

   a**The only thing missing for power to begin flowing is that President
   Cristina Fernandez tells the engineers the authorization has been
   approveda**, said Paraguayan diplomatic sources.

   Deputy minister Mercedes Canese said Paraguay was willing to pay Argentina
   10 US dollars per MW/hour for grid toll concepts, a**since this is the
   regional rate for other operators and the rate can not be higher for
   Paraguaya**.

   Apparently the Uruguayan government is also furious with Argentine Federal
   Planning Minister Julio De Vido who first refused to have the agreement
   included in a joint declaration, later said a three sides committee was
   unnecessary and later he appeals a**to the resource of blaming
   alternatively the Uruguayans or the Paraguayans for ignoring rules for the
   inter-connectiona**.

   Apparently another excuse from the Argentines to Uruguay is that Paraguay
   a**cana**t demonstrate that the power does not come from the YaciretA!
   hydroelectric dam, since surplus from that dam can only be sold to
   Argentina under existing contract clausesa**.

   In reality the Paraguayan power is to come from a smaller dam, Acaray,
   which is not part either of the ItaipA-o or YaciretA! complexes.

   But Uruguayan sources believe the obstacles can be tracked not to
   technical or economic issues but simply because the a**administration of
   President Cristina Kirchner wants Paraguay to have an only client for its
   power, the Argentine marketa**.

   a**Step by step technical problems have been solved and now we are in the
   stage of negotiations with Argentina, and solving existent legal problems;
   the energy problem is a regional challenge and we are focused on ita**,
   said Uruguayan Foreign Affaire minister Luis Almagro when asked about the
   delay.

   More bluntly Paraguayan Deputy Minister Canese says ita**s all up to De
   Vido, a**he keeps presenting the Uruguayans with unacceptable terms and
   only wants to ensure Paraguay becomes a prisoner of Argentina for its
   electricity exporta**.

   La industria tiene un 39% de capacidad ociosa
   Se debe a factores de competitividad interna y externa
   5.7.2011 -
   http://www.elpais.com.uy/110705/pecono-577712/economia/la-industria-tiene-un-39-de-capacidad-ociosa/

   La industria tuvo una capacidad ociosa de 39% en el primer trimestre del
   aA+-o debido a aspectos vinculados a la competitividad, en el mercado
   interno y externo mayormente, y a razones estacionales.

   Eso se desprende del indicador de UtilizaciA^3n de Capacidad Instalada
   (UCI) que elabora la CA!mara de Industrias en base a encuestas a 96
   empresas del sector (se excluye a la refinerAa de Ancap, UPM y Pepsi) que
   fue divulgado ayer.

   De acuerdo el relevamiento, en el primer trimestre del aA+-o la industria
   utilizA^3 el 61% de su capacidad instalada, un nivel similar al del primer
   trimestre de 2010 cuando fue de 62%.

   La CA!mara de Industrias seA+-alA^3 que \"de todas formas estos niveles se
   encuentran por debajo de los verificados en los A-oltimos aA+-os, a
   excepciA^3n de 2009, perAodo de mayor afectaciA^3n de la producciA^3n
   industrial con motivo de la profundizaciA^3n de la crisis internacional\".
   En el primer trimestre de 2007 la UCI fue de 68%, en igual perAodo de 2008
   fue de 67% y en enero-marzo de 2009 el uso de la capacidad cayA^3 a 52%.

   De acuerdo al tamaA+-o de la industria, en el caso de las grandes
   empresas, la UCI en el primer trimestre del aA+-o fue de 67% mientras que
   en igual perAodo de 2010 era de 71%. Las pequeA+-as y medianas industrias
   mejoraron la utilizaciA^3n de su capacidad de 48% en el primer trimestre
   de 2010 a 50% en igual lapso de este aA+-o.

   La gremial empresarial tambiA(c)n consultA^3 a los industriales sobre los
   motivos para producir por debajo de la capacidad plena, pudiendo estos
   seleccionar mA!s de una opciA^3n de una lista.

   Con casi un 20% de las respuestas, se ubicaron en primer lugar los
   \"aspectos vinculados a la competitividad en el mercado interno\". Este \"se
   mantiene desde informes anteriores co-mo el principal impedimento para no
   aprovechar plenamente la capacidad potencial, especialmente en aquellas
   empresas de QuAmicos y plA!sticos y Textil, vestimenta y cuero\", destaca
   la CA!mara de Industrias.

   En segundo lugar, con casi un 16% aparecen \"aspectos vinculados a la
   competitividad en los mercados externos\". Los que mA!s mencionan esta
   razA^3n son las firmas de la metalurgia.

   El tercer factor con cerca de 10% de respuestas fue el \"estacional\".
   Siendo las industrias de Papel e imprentas, Alimentos, bebidas y tabaco
   las que mA!s lo mencionan.

   La \"insuficiencia de oferta de materia prima\" fue la cuarta razA^3n con
   mA!s menciones.

   The industry has 39% spare capacity
   It is due to factors internal and external competitiveness

   The industry had excess capacity of 39% in the first quarter due to
   aspects related to competitiveness in the domestic market and mostly
   external, and seasonal reasons.

   This indicator shows the capacity utilization (ICU) prepared by the
   Chamber of Industries based on surveys of 96 companies (excluding the
   ANCAP refinery, PSU and Pepsi) that was released yesterday.

   According to the survey, in the first quarter of the industry used 61% of
   its installed capacity, a level similar to the first quarter of 2010 when
   it was 62%.

   The Chamber of Industry said that \"in any case, these levels are below
   those observed in recent years, except 2009, a period of greater
   involvement of the industrial production because of the deepening
   international crisis.\" In the first quarter of 2007, the ICU was 68%
   during the same period in 2008 was 67% and in January-March 2009, capacity
   utilization fell to 52%.

   According to the size of the industry, in the case of large companies, the
   ICU in the first quarter was 67% while in the same period in 2010 was 71%.
   Small and medium industries improved capacity utilization of 48% in the
   first quarter of 2010 to 50% in the same period this year.

   The business association also consulted the industry about the reasons to
   produce below full capacity, these can select more than one option from a
   list.

   With almost 20% of respondents were located in the first place \"aspects
   related to competitiveness in the domestic market.\" This \"is maintained
   from previous reports co-mo a major impediment to not fully exploit the
   potential, especially in chemical companies and plastics and textiles,
   clothing and leather,\" says the Chamber of Industries.

   Secondly, with nearly 16% are \"aspects related to competitiveness in
   foreign markets.\" The most mentioned this reason are the signatures of
   metallurgy.

   The third factor of around 10% response was \"seasonal.\" Being the paper
   and printing industries, food, beverages and snuff the most mention.

   The \"insufficient supply of raw materials\" was the fourth reason more
   mentions.

   El gobierno quiere recuperar control polAtico en ASSE, BPS y Codicen
   5.7.2011 -
   http://www.larepublica.com.uy/politica/460876-el-gobierno-quiere-recuperar-control-politico-en-asse-bps-y-codicen

   Mujica encomendA^3 al Ministerio de Trabajo hallar una soluciA^3n a
   eventuales problemas de gobernabilidad en algunos organismos del Estado
   debido a la minorAa numA(c)rica de los jerarcas del gobierno. No
   prosperarAa aumentar el nA-omero de directores. Se evalA-oa el voto doble
   de los presidentes de los organismos.

   La integraciA^3n de los directorios y su funcionamiento en algunos
   organismos del Estado ha encendido una luz roja en el gobierno al advertir
   que en ellos hay \"serios problemas de gestiA^3n\" al punto que se evalA-oa
   que \"estA! en riesgo la gobernabilidad\". Este tema fue uno de los
   analizados ayer en la reuniA^3n semanal del Consejo de ministros y en ese
   mismo A!mbito se esbozaron algunas vAas que apuntan a una soluciA^3n
   futura. El presidente JosA(c) Mujica fue quien ayer encomendA^3 al
   ministro de Trabajo, Eduardo Brenta, buscar una soluciA^3n al problema que
   se avizora, porque se quieren evitar inconvenientes en la ejecuciA^3n de
   las polAticas generales del gobierno en A!reas sensibles como la salud, la
   educaciA^3n y la seguridad social. Precisamente son en los directorios de
   estas tres A!reas en donde se quieren aventar inconvenientes a la hora de
   implementar las polAticas del gobierno: ASSE, Codicen y Banco de
   PrevisiA^3n Social. En los directorios de estos tres organismos el
   gobierno estA! en minorAa numA(c)rica.

   Voceros del gobierno confiaron anoche que Mujica propuso buscar un
   mecanismo que le conceda al presidente de los directorios, donde el
   gobierno estA! en minorAa, la potestad del doble voto, aunque esta
   fA^3rmula no asegura supremacAa oficial porque podrAa resultar aA-on asA
   en un empate en las decisiones finales. El presidente no es partidario de
   ampliar de 5 a 7 el nA-omero de directores como se propone en un proyecto
   que estarAa siendo redactado por el diputado del MPP A*lvaro Vega.

   Una alta fuente del Poder Ejecutivo considerA^3 que la presencia de la
   oposiciA^3n y de los representantes sociales en los directorios de los
   organismos fue \"un mecanismo muy positivo\" promovido en su momento por el
   presidente Mujica, \"pero la oposiciA^3n y los actores sociales estA!n para
   controlar y no para dirigir\". No obstante se estima que \"gobierno y
   oposiciA^3n arribaremos seguramente a un acuerdo\" con el fin de evitar
   problemas de gestiA^3n. El senador Enrique Rubio (FA) fue representante
   del gobierno cuando al inicio de la actual administraciA^3n se negociA^3
   con la oposiciA^3n la integraciA^3n en los directorios de los organismos.
   Rubio asegurA^3 anoche a LA REPA*BLICA, que \"si no aplicamos cambios en la
   integraciA^3n en ASSE, se pone en riesgo el Sistema Nacional de Salud\".
   CalificA^3 que los directores sociales en ASSE implementan una polAtica de
   \"corporativismo\" y que \"si bien no tiene por quA(c) compartir los
   criterios del gobierno, tampoco pueden pretender que no haya posibilidades
   de avanzar en los lineamientos polAticos del Poder Ejecutivo que es el que
   votA^3 la gente\".

   En cuanto a la ANEP, otro de los organismos donde el gobierno estA! en
   minorAa, la consejera Nora Castro dijo a este diario que allA \"no hay
   problemas de funcionamiento\" y que existe \"plena conjunciA^3n de
   esfuerzos\" entre los directores y los consejeros del orden docente. \"Nadie
   puede decir que los docentes son corporativistas. Eso es una difamaciA^3n\"
   sostuvo. Por su parte, el presidente del BPS Ernesto Murro prefiriA^3 no
   hacer comentarios.

   DATOS

   Doce son los entes autA^3nomos y siete los servicios descentralizados en
   los que participa la oposiciA^3n compartiendo el directorio con
   representantes del gobierno.

   Era una tradiciA^3n que los organismos fueran integrados por cuota
   polAtica. Durante aA+-os, blancos y colorados se repartAan los cargos.

   ReciA(c)n entre 1985 y 1989 el FA pudo ingresar a los organismos. En el
   pasado gobierno del Frente Amplio la oposiciA^3n no acordA^3 la
   representatividad y en esta administraciA^3n la oposiciA^3n aceptA^3
   integrar los directorios.

   The government wants to regain political control in ASSE, BPS and codices

   Mujica instructed the Ministry of Labour to find a solution to any
   problems of governance in some state agencies because of the numerical
   minority in the government hierarchy. Not succeed to increase the number
   of directors. Evaluate the double vote of the presidents of organisms.

   The integration of directories and their operation in some government
   agencies have turned on a red light on the government to see that in them
   \"serious management problems\" to the extent that it assesses that
   \"governance is at risk.\" This issue was one of those tested yesterday at
   the weekly meeting of the Council of Ministers and in the same field
   outlined some ways that point to a future solution. President JosA(c)
   Mujica was who yesterday instructed the Labour Minister Eduardo Brenta to
   find a solution to the problem that is looming, because they want to avoid
   problems in implementing the government's general policy in sensitive
   areas such as health, education and social security. It is exactly on the
   boards of these three areas in which you want to throw difficulties in
   implementing the government policy: ASSE, codices and BPS. On the boards
   of these three government agencies are in numerical minority.

   Government spokesmen last night Mujica relied find a mechanism proposed to
   grant the president of the directories, where the government is in
   minority, the power of double voting, but this formula does not ensure
   official supremacy because it could result in a tie still in final
   decisions. The president is not keen to expand from 5 to 7 the number of
   directors as proposed in a project that would be written by the deputy of
   MPP Alvaro Vega.

   A high source of the Administration believes that the presence of the
   opposition and representatives on the boards of social agencies was \"a
   very positive mechanism\" promoted at the time by President Mujica, \"but
   the opposition and social actors are to control and not to direct. \"
   However it is estimated that \"government and opposition will surely arrive
   at an agreement\" in order to avoid management problems. Senator Enrique
   Rubio (FA) was representative of the government when the start of the
   current administration negotiated with the opposition to integration on
   the boards of the agencies. Rubio said last night the Republic, \"if we do
   not apply changes in the integration ASSE is threatening the NHS\". The
   directors called ASSE implement a social policy of \"corporatism\" and that
   \"although it need not share the government's criteria, they can not
   pretend that there is no chance of advancing in the political guidelines
   of the Executive Branch is to vote the people. \"

   As for ANEP, other agencies where the government is in the minority, the
   Minister Nora Castro told this newspaper that there \"is no problem of
   operation\" and that there is \"full joint efforts\" between principals and
   counselors teaching order. \"Nobody can say that teachers are corporatist.
   This is a libel\" he said. For his part, President Ernesto Murro BPS
   declined comment.

   DATA

   Twelve are autonomous entities and decentralized services seven
   participating in the opposition share the directory with government
   representatives.

   It was a tradition that the bodies were composed of political quota. For
   years, white and red were distributed charges.

   Just between 1985 and 1989, the FA could enter the bodies. In the past
   government of the Frente Amplio opposition representative did not agree to
   this administration and the opposition agreed to join the boards.

   PERU
   Perua**s president-elect to meet OAS chief in US
   http://www.andina.com.pe/Ingles/Noticia.aspx?Id=t3wk4efLK6g=

   Lima, Jul. 04 (ANDINA). Peruvian President-elect Ollanta Humala will meet
   with the Secretary General of the Organization of American States (OAS),
   Jose Miguel Insulza, during his two-day visit to Washington this week.

   According to Humalaa**s Gana PerA-o party, the president-elect will arrive
   in Washington on Tuesday,        July 5, at around 20.35 hours.

   On Wednesday morning, he will hold talks with OAS Secretary General Jose
   Miguel Insulza and then with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

   In the afternoon of the same day, Humala is scheduled to meet with US
   President Barack Obama at the White House.

   Ollanta Humala will return to Peru late  on Thursday, July 7.

   CayA^3 pareja de camarada \"Artemio\" con siete meses de embarazo
   La PolicAa asegura que Elisa Culantres CA^3rdova (25) participA^3 en
   varios acciones terroristas entre diciembre del 2005 y junio del 2007
   04 de julio de 2011 - 06:17 pm -
   http://elcomercio.pe/peru/840055/noticia-cayo-pareja-camaradaartemio-siete-meses-embarazo

   (Andina). La DirecciA^3n Contra el Terrorismo (Dircote) presentA^3 esta
   tarde a Elisa MA^3nica Culantres CA^3rdova (25), actual pareja del
   camarada a**Artemioa** y gestante de siete meses, quien fue detenida por
   delito de terrorismo el 2 de julio cuando caminaba por el parque del
   asentamiento humano 30 de Agosto en Villa MarAa del Triunfo.

   El jefe de la referida direcciA^3n policial, TomA!s Guibert SagA!stegui,
   informA^3 que Culantres CA^3rdova integra la organizaciA^3n terrorista
   Sendero Luminoso y fue capturada tras un paciente seguimiento realizado
   con apoyo de la DirecciA^3n Antidrogas y de Inteligencia de la PolicAa
   Nacional.

   En conferencia de prensa, el director de la Dircote detallA^3 que en el
   domicilio de Culantres, en la calle Guardia Civil del referido distrito,
   se incautaron seis fotografAas de su anterior pareja, Juan Laguna, mando
   militar de la referida organizaciA^3n fallecido en el 2008.

   TambiA(c)n se encontraron dos fotografAas de Cristhian Isminio RodrAguez,
   tambiA(c)n miembro de SL; tres celulares, dos tarjetas de memoria para
   cA!maras fotogrA!ficas, asA como dos memorias USB que vienen siendo
   analizados.

   Guibert SagA!stegui recordA^3 que Culantres CA^3rdova, alias a**Evelyna**
   o a**Leidia**, fue integrante del EjA(c)rcito Guerrillero Popular y
   participA^3 en distintos actos terroristas entre diciembre de 2005 y junio
   de 2007. AdemA!s, estA! mencionada en atestados policiales de los aA+-os
   2007, 2008, 2009 y 2011 en calidad de no habida.

   En dichos actos fallecieron 11 policAas, un fiscal y un trabajador del
   Proyecto Especial de Control y ReducciA^3n de Cultivos Ilegales de Coca en
   el Alto Huallaga (Corah), y otros policAas resultaron heridos.

   a**La intervenida registra dos requisitorias pendientes por el delito de
   terrorismo en el Cuarto Juzgado de InstrucciA^3n de HuA!nuco, en mayo de
   2007, y en el Primer Juzgado Supra Provincial de Lima, en diciembre de
   2009a**, seA+-alA^3 Guibert SagA!stegui, al precisar que todas las
   diligencias se realizan con representantes de la FiscalAa.

   Tras la conferencia tambiA(c)n se presentA^3 el material promocional sobre
   las recompensas de hasta un millA^3n de soles que se ofrece a las personas
   que brinden informaciA^3n que permita la ubicaciA^3n de los terroristas.

   Los afiches, trApticos y volantes serA!n distribuidos en el valle del rAo
   Huallaga. Guibert SagA!stegui recordA^3 que la identidad de las personas
   que denuncien a los miembros de SL serA! protegida.

   Fell couple comrade \"Artemio\" seven months pregnant
   Police said that Coriander Elisa Cordova (25) participated in various
   terrorist actions between December 2005 and June 2007

   (Andina). The Directorate Against Terrorism (Dircote) presented this
   afternoon at Coriander Monica Elisa Cordova (25), current partner of
   Comrade \"Artemio\" and seven months pregnant, who was arrested on charges
   of terrorism on July 2 as he walked through the park August 30 slums in
   Villa Maria del Triunfo.

   The head of that police leadership, Thomas Sagdstegui Guibert, Coriander
   CA^3rdova reported that integrates the Shining Path terrorist organization
   and was captured after a patient monitoring carried out with support from
   the Drug Enforcement and Intelligence Directorate of the National Police.

   At a press conference, the director of the Dircote explained that the home
   of coriander, Civil Guard on the streets of that district, seized six
   photographs of his former partner, Juan Laguna, military commander of that
   organization died in 2008.

   We also found two photographs of Ismini Cristhian Rodriguez, also a member
   of SL, three phones, two memory cards for cameras, as well as two USB
   drives that are being analyzed.

   Guibert said that Coriander Sagdstegui Cordova, alias \"Evelyn\" or \"Leidi\"
   was a member of the People's Guerrilla Army and participated in various
   terrorist acts between December 2005 and June 2007. It is also mentioned
   in police reports for the years 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011 as not having.

   Such acts were killed 11 police officers, a prosecutor and an employee of
   the Special Project for Control and Reduction of illegal coca crops in the
   Upper Huallaga (Corah), and other policemen were wounded.

   \"The outstanding requisitions operated two records for the crime of
   terrorism in the Fourth Court of Instruction of Huanuco, in May 2007 and
   the First Court Supra Provincial de Lima in December 2009,\" said Guibert
   Sagdstegui, stipulating that all proceedings are conducted with
   representatives of the Office.

   After the conference also featured promotional material about the rewards
   of up to a million suns that offered to people who provide information
   leading to the location of the terrorists.

   Posters, leaflets and flyers will be distributed in the Huallaga River
   valley. Sagdstegui Guibert said that the identity of persons reporting to
   m

   Estados Unidos destaca determinaciA^3n de Humala de luchar contra el
   narcotrA!fico
   4 julio 2011 - 5:02 pm -
   http://www.inforegion.pe/portada/107022/estados-unidos-destaca-determinacion-de-humala-de-luchar-contra-el-narcotrafico/

   La embajadora de los Estados Unidos en PerA-o, Rose M. Likins, precisA^3
   que su gobierno buscarA! colaborar con la administraciA^3n del presidente
   Ollanta Humala para que tenga A(c)xito en su determinaciA^3n de luchar
   contra el narcotrA!fico.

   Likins enfatizA^3 que Humala Tasso ha sido muy claro en su compromiso en
   la lucha antidrogas, en su diA!logo con las diferentes autoridades
   norteamericanas.

   a**Lo que me consta a mA son las declaraciones que ha hecho a nuestro
   gobierno, tanto en su conversaciA^3n con la (secretaria de Estado)
   seA+-ora (Hillary) Clinton y sus conversaciones conmigo, de que tiene toda
   la intenciA^3n de luchar en contra de esa criminalidada**, puntualizA^3 la
   diplomA!tica.

   ConsiderA^3 que esa posiciA^3n del gobernante electo es muy importante.
   a**Es un esfuerzo importante, sus comentarios  en cuanto a su
   determinaciA^3n de enfrentar el problema de la criminalidad y producciA^3n
   ilAcita de la drogas, son bienvenidos, y nosotros vamos a seguir buscando
   la manera de colaborar con su gobierno; A(c)l ha sido muy claro en sus
   declaraciones en contra (del narcotrA!fico)a**, recalcA^3.

   En ese sentido saludA^3 la disposiciA^3n de presidente electo de viajar a
   su paAs y se mostrA^3 convencida que ello fortalecerA! las relaciones
   bilaterales.

   Agenda

   Rose likins precisA^3 que  no estA! en agenda una reuniA^3n del presidente
   electo peruano con el presidente Barack Obama.

   En cambio indicA^3 que en la agenda de Humala en Washington contempla
   reuniones en el Departamento de Estado y con el staff de la Casa Blanca.
    MencionA^3 que en la Casa Blanca se reunirA! con el asesor de Seguridad
   Nacional, Tom Donilon.

   U.S. highlights Humala determination to fight drug trafficking

   The U.S. ambassador in Peru, Rose M. Likins, said that his government will
   seek to collaborate with the administration of President Ollanta Humala to
   be successful in their determination to fight drug trafficking.

   Likins emphasized that Humala Tasso has been very clear in its commitment
   to the fight against drugs in its dialogue with the various U.S.
   authorities.

   \"What I know for me are the statements he has made to our government, both
   in his conversation with the (Secretary of State) Mrs. (Hillary) Clinton
   and his conversations with me, you have every intention of fighting
   against this crime, \"stated the diplomat.

   He considered that the position of president-elect is very important.
   \"It's a major effort, his comments in their determination to face the
   problem of crime and illicit production of drugs, are welcome, and we will
   continue seeking ways to collaborate with his government, he has been very
   clear statements against (drug), \"he said.

   In this respect welcomed the willingness of President-elect to travel to
   his country and was convinced that this will strengthen bilateral
   relations.

   Agenda

   Rose Likins said that is not on the agenda of a meeting with Peruvian
   President-elect Barack Obama president.

   On the other hand indicated that Humala's agenda includes meetings in
   Washington in the State Department and the White House staff. He said at
   the White House to meet with National Security Advisor, Tom Donilon.

   Toledo ratifica respaldo a Humala
   5.7.2011 -
   http://www.larepublica.pe/archive/all/larepublica/20110705/3/node/365050/todos/15

   Estrategia. Apoyo de PP a gana perA-o serA! en lo polAtico, de
   colaboraciA^3n tA(c)cnica y en el Congreso. LAder de PerA-o Posible dijo
   que inclusiA^3n de miembros de su partido en el gabinete Humala se
   definirA! cuando el presidente electo retorne de EEUU.

   Bajando la tensiA^3n que se generA^3 en dAas recientes por declaraciones
   singulares de uno y otro, el esperado encuentro entre Ollanta Humala y
   Alejandro Toledo se produjo por fin anoche.

   ParecAa que la cita iba a quedar postergada a la vuelta de Humala de EEUU,
   teniendo en cuenta que el presidente electo  habAa indicado que la
   reuniA^3n no estaba en su agenda, pero finalmente decidieron encontrarse
   antes del viaje.

   Toledo Manrique fue el primero en  llegar al local del PNUD en Magdalena
   (centro de operaciones del electo mandatario), minutos despuA(c)s hizo lo
   propio Humala. Pero tras la reuniA^3n, que se prolongA^3 por mA!s de una
   hora, solo declarA^3 el lAder de PerA-o Posible (PP).

   Aunque se excusA^3 de revelar detalles de la conversaciA^3n, Toledo dijo
   que la eventual inclusiA^3n de miembros de su partido en el gabinete
   Humala se analizarA! cuando el presidente electo retorne de su viaje a los
   Estados Unidos.

   Luego reiterA^3 que el presidente electo tiene la libertad para definir su
   gabinete, y que no habAa que presionarlo para tomar ninguna decisiA^3n en
   ese sentido.

   a**(Humala) es un hombre que tiene la idea clara sobre los grados de
   libertad que tiene un presidente electo para decidir su gobierno y
   gabinetea**, subrayA^3 Toledo.

   Apoyo en tres niveles

   El ex jefe del Estado, quien calificA^3 de productiva y amigable la cita,
   destacA^3 que con el prA^3ximo gobernante coinciden en el objetivo de
   mantener el crecimiento econA^3mico con inclusiA^3n social y una mejor
   redistribuciA^3n en los sectores mA!s desfavorecidos.

   Por ello, explicA^3 que el apoyo de PP al nuevo gobierno se da en tres
   niveles. a**Un nivel de apoyo polAtico porque  nos hemos comprometido. Un
   nivel (de apoyo) posible de algunos miembros de PerA-o Posible o
   independientes, y el tercero es un apoyo en el Congresoa**, precisA^3.

   En esa lAnea, fuentes confiables de este diario revelaron que ambos
   lAderes polAticos concordaron en la idea de sumar tA(c)cnicos
   independientes, con solvencia moral, al primer gabinete de Humala.

   a**AdemA!s de miembros de ambos partidos, se convocarAa a independientes
   honestos para el Consejo de Ministrosa**, indicaron.
   Las fuentes dijeron ademA!s que el lAder de PP explicA^3 a Humala su
   experiencia de los primeros meses en el gobierno, poniendo A(c)nfasis en
   los retos que asumirA!, asA como tambiA(c)n los errores que podrAa cometer
   por desconocimiento.

   Por la gobernabilidad

   a**El mensaje que quedA^3 claro durante la reuniA^3n es que ambos estA!n
   juntos por la gobernabilidad del paAsa**, se revelA^3.
   En ese sentido, PerA-o Posible comprometiA^3 su apoyo en el sostenimiento
   del nuevo gobierno, a fin de enfrentar los ataques que apunten a debilitar
   y desestabilizar al  nuevo gobierno.

   a**Este apoyo es vital para que Ollanta pueda cumplir con su objetivo de
   lograr la inclusiA^3n social con crecimiento econA^3micoa**, explicaron
   nuestros informantes.

   En la cita, Humala y Toledo acordaron tambiA(c)n establecer una lAnea
   directa para ver los cuadros que PP puede aportar.
   SoltA^3 datos en Facebook

   MA!s tarde, el ex presidente Toledo comentA^3 la cita con  Humala en  su
   cuenta de Facebook.

   a**El encuentro fue como lo esperaba: cordial, sincero, directo.
   Coincidimos en el objetivo de continuar con el crecimiento econA^3mico con
   inclusiA^3n social. Le deseo A(c)xito al presidente Humala en su viaje a
   EEUU. A su retorno seguiremos conversandoa**, dijo.

   Humala viaja a Estados Unidos

   El presidente electo viaja hoy a Washington (Estados Unidos), donde tiene
   previsto reunirse el miA(c)rcoles con el secretario general de la
   OrganizaciA^3n de Estados Americanos (OEA), JosA(c) Miguel Insulza. Humala
   realiza esta gira tras haber visitado con anterioridad siete paAses de
   AmA(c)rica Latina.

   En la Casa Blanca, Humala se reunirA! con funcionarios del Departamento de
   Estado, entre ellos con la secretaria de Estado, Hillary Clinton.

   La embajadora de EEUU en PerA-o, Rose M. Likins, aclarA^3 que no estA! en
   agenda que el presidente de dicho paAs, Barack Obama, reciba al presidente
   electo peruano. AdemA!s, Likins indicA^3 que Humala se reunirA! con el
   asesor de Seguridad Nacional de EEUU Tom Donilon.

   Toledo ratifies support for Humala

   Strategy. Support PP Peru will win in the political, technical
   collaboration and in Congress. Possible leader of Peru said that inclusion
   of members of his party in the cabinet Humala will be defined when the
   elected president of the U.S. returns.

   Lowering the tension generated by statements in recent days and a unique
   one, the expected meeting between Ollanta Humala and Alejandro Toledo took
   place last night.

   It seemed that the event was going to be delayed to around U.S. Humala,
   given that President-elect indicated that the meeting was not on his
   agenda, but finally decided to meet before the trip.

   Toledo Manrique was the first to the local UNDP Magdalena (headquarters of
   the elected president), followed suit minutes after Humala. But after the
   meeting, which lasted more than an hour, only declared the leader of Peru
   Posible (PP).

   Although he declined to reveal details of the conversation, Toledo said
   the eventual inclusion of members of his party in the cabinet will be
   considered when Humala elected president returns from his trip to the
   United States.

   Then he reiterated that the elected president has the freedom to define
   his Cabinet, and had not pressed for any decision in this regard.

   \"(Humala) is a man who has a clear idea of a**a**the degrees of freedom
   that has an elected president to decide their government and cabinet,\"
   said Toledo.

   Support on three levels

   The former head of state, who called the meeting productive and friendly,
   said that the next president agree on the objective of sustaining economic
   growth with social inclusion and a better distribution in the most
   disadvantaged.

   Therefore, explained that the PP support the new government at three
   levels. \"A level of political support because we are committed. A level
   (support) as possible members of Peru Posible or independent, and the
   third is support in Congress, \"he said.

   Along these lines, trusted sources of this newspaper revealed that both
   political leaders agreed on the idea of a**a**adding independent experts,
   with good character, the first cabinet of Humala.

   \"In addition to members of both parties are honest independent convene to
   the Council of Ministers,\" they said.
   The sources also said that the PP leader Humala told her early experience
   in government, emphasizing the challenges that will take, as well as
   errors that could make out of ignorance.

   On governance

   \"The message was clear during the meeting is that both are together for
   the governance of the country,\" he said.
   In this sense, Peru Posible pledged his support in sustaining the new
   government to deal with attacks aimed at weakening and destabilizing the
   new government.

   \"This support is vital for Ollanta to fulfill its goal of social inclusion
   with economic growth,\" explained our informants.

   At the meeting, Humala and Toledo also agreed to establish a hotline to
   see the pictures that PP can provide.
   Data released on Facebook

   Later, former President Toledo said the meeting with Humala in your
   Facebook account.

   \"The meeting went as expected: warm, honest, direct. We agree on the goal
   of continuing economic growth with social inclusion. I wish you success
   Humala president on his trip to America. In return we will continue
   talking, \"he said.

   Humala travels to the U.S.

   President-elect today travels to Washington (USA), where he is scheduled
   to meet Wednesday with Secretary General of the Organization of American
   States (OAS) Jose Miguel Insulza. Humala done this tour having previously
   visited seven countries in Latin America.

   At the White House, Humala will meet with State Department officials,
   including the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

   The U.S. ambassador to Peru, Rose M. Likins, clarified that agenda is the
   president of this country, Barack Obama, get elected president of Peru. In
   addition, Likins said Humala will meet with National Security Adviser Tom
   Donilon U.S..
","2011-07-05 16:02:08",1,"2012-03-13 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/85390_-latam-pup-brief-110705-am-.html","allison.fedirka@stratfor.com","mailto:latam@stratfor.com","rbaker@stratfor.com,latam@stratfor.com",""
85929,"INSIGHT - TURKEY - Gulen operations and nuclear power plant
","   PUBLICATION: background/analysis
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Columnist for Hurriyet/former Gulenist
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2 
   SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:  analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
   . 
   Discussed a lot of different things with this source and will be following
   up with him next week. He's agreed to give me the whole rundown on Gulen
   and how things work internally for my report (very excited). This is a guy
   who essentially fled the Gulen after being heavily involed in the
   movement. He's happy for his freedom now, but has tons of insight on how
   things work internally. Naturally that makes him very paranoid. One of the
   more interesting things that we talked about is the Islamist infiltration
   of the military. This is something that you hear a lot about, and the
   military folks always seem to exaggerate it. But apparently, the Gulenists
   have made some serious inroads into the TSK.
   The whole thing works as a massive covert operation. This has been
   happening since the late 80s and early 1990s. Essentially, the Gulen
   organizers will instruct certain members on exactly how to live their
   lives and raise their children so that they are not overtly religious. By
   the time the kids are grown to go to college, you would think they're any
   Joe Schmoe. But, they actually have what you consider a case officer
   within the Gulen who they report to. The young Gulenist will be typically
   highly educated and qualified to go to what is the Harvard of Turkey. But,
   the movement will have him go to the military academy instead. The
   military academies dont really have the brightest folks and so are eager
   to attract these bright minds. Eventually the 'covert' Gulenist will rise
   in ranks and then the movement is able to rely on them to promote their
   agenda. By now, the Gulenists have an entire generation within the
   military ranks. Hard to place a percentage on it, but it's significant.
   This goes beyond the police and intelligence.
   The Gulenists drive the whole Ergenekon affair. We've talked about the
   symbiotic relationship b/w AKP and Gulen (remember, the Islamist faction
   in Turkey is not monolithic at all). THere have been many times when
   Erdogan has wanted to back down but the Gulenists have become a lot more
   influential and push him in certain cases, like we saw with this most
   recent accusation against those soldiers allegedly planning an
   assassination against an AKP official. The impression in TUrkey is that
   Basburg has no balls. He described how in a recent press conference how he
   was struggling to even keep the audience's attention. 
   The Gulenist/AKP movement is extremely strong globally, but particularly
   in DC. New think tanks are popping up all the time. SETA is one of them,
   where two of Erdogan's top advisors come from. 
   Source did a lot of work on Turkey's nuclear power project before. He was
   told by an official when these negotiations started around 2007 that AKP
   wasn't serious about it. The terms of the deal were really screwed up,
   very unfair to any investor so nobody really wanted to bid, and AKP was
   fine with that. The whole point was to associate Turkey with nuclear power
   -- a status symbol, so they could should we could have if we want it, but
   we're not in a rush (sounds like the same policy on the IMF loan). Only
   the Russians bid on it, and the deal fell through last summer. Now, after
   Erdogan met with Putin, they're dealing on it again, but as far as he can
   tell, nobody is putting up the money for it yet. This is something we're
   still looking into
   He echoed many of the things I've heard about the AKP media crackdown.
   He's seen a lot of it first-hand, being in the journalism world. Agrees
   that Ciner is becoming another Celuk under AKP (i know only a couple ppl
   will understand what that means, we'll explain later)
   Something I'll be looking into after talking to George is understanding
   well how the banks are run politically in Turkey. AKP is moving very
   aggressively, but it still doesn't have control over the financial system.
   that still lies in the nationalists' hands. more on that later
","2010-02-03 02:25:11",1,"2012-03-14 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/85929_insight-turkey-gulen-operations-and-nuclear-power-plant-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
86916,"Re: Argentina and Falklands
","   Thanks, Allison. Can you try to verify whether this has congressional
   backing and see how shipping traffic actually passes through this are?
   Does the falkland dispute actually resonate among the populace?
   Sent from my iPhone
   On Feb 17, 2010, at 12:01 PM, Allison Fedirka
   <allison.fedirka@stratfor.com> wrote:

     My take on the issue is along the lines of what you are thinking - a
     distraction from internal issues.  Throughout the year you will hear the
     Argentine government talk up the Falklands - to them the issue never was
     resolved in 82.  You'll hear it come in to the news at the beginning of
     April (dia de las Malvinas) and whenever there is a big official visit
     between the UK/Argie.  For example when CK went to the UK for the g20
     she vowed to bring it up.  I also have to say that it is still a bit of
     a sore spot for Argentines.... many of them still believe that the
     islands should rightfully be theirs (as they appear in all national maps
     along with Antarctica). 

     Right now there's all sorts of slander going around in the press with
     scandals everywhere - the Kirchners making money illegally, the
     Kirchners buying millions of dollars, the govt's use of DNU, govt trying
     to bypass the Congress and use the reserves to pay part of the debt
     anyways, electricity supply/flooding problems in the North, meat/food
     prices and general inflation, farmer and export taxes or aid, people
     wanting more money for social plans or better distribution of social
     plans.  These are the things in the headlines every day or every other
     day.

     It is interesting that they made the rule about requiring permits to go
     there.  If the govt issues permits, there's no telling when they will
     get issued.  Also, it's a decree which means it was CK's decision and
     she doesn't necessarily have Congress's backing.  The opposition is
     trying to revisit the issue of Presidential decrees and this is one of
     many that fall in to that category.  I'm not sure how much that affects
     the Brits - if they frequently use Argentine ports or pass through
     Argentine waters.... and if they do, how easily it can be avoided (say
     with a shift to Montevideo port or just going around Arg waters).

       Hey Allison,
       Can you please explain to me what is driving Argentina to escalate the
       Falklands dispute right now?  is this just to distract from internal
       issues, something more?

              Argentina escalates row with Britain over Falklands

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       <mime-attachment.jpg>AFP a** File photo of tourists walking in
       Stanley, Falkland Islands. Argentina escalated a row with Britain
       over a*|
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           Stories AP
       by Oscar Laski a** Tue Feb 16, 11:06 pm ET
       BUENOS AIRES (AFP) a** Argentina escalated a row with Britain overoil
       drilling in the Falklands by ordering all ships heading to the
       disputed islands through its waters to seek permission from Buenos
       Aires first.
       Argentine President Cristina Kirchner signed the decree, ratcheting up
       tensions between Argentina and Britain over Las Malvinas, the Spanish
       name for the islands they warred over in 1982 at the cost of almost
       1,000 lives.
       \"All ships that wish to move between ports in continental Argentina
       and ports in the Malvinas islands, or that wish to cross
       Argentineterritorial waters as they head to the islands\" require prior
       permission, it said.
       Kirchner's chief of staff Anibal Fernandez left no doubt the move was
       intended to clamp down on shipping that might be helping Britain as it
       launches operations to explore the region's oil and mineral reserves.
       The decree seeks to achieve \"not only a defense of Argentine
       sovereignty but also of all the resources\" in the area, Fernandez
       explained, adding that a high-level permanent committee would be set
       up to monitor the shipping.
       Anger in Argentina over the Falklands, which has bubbled below the
       surface for much of the last three decades, has threatened to boil
       over in recent months as Britain prepares to launch drilling
       operations.
       Argentina has lodged a protest with London about drilling in the
       seabed around the windswept islands, which contains up to 60 billion
       barrels of oil, according to geological studies quoted in the British
       media.
       A tug boat hauling a British exploration rig will arrive any day to
       start oil prospecting and the issue already came to a head earlier
       this month when Buenos Aires blocked a shipment of pipes it said was
       bound for the Falklands.
       Argentine authorities boarded the foreign flagged \"Thor Leader\" in the
       southern port of Campana after learning it was about to take on a
       cargo of pipes used in the oil industry and apparently destined for
       the Falklands.
       Buenos Aires is furious that London continues to skirt UN resolutions
       calling on both governments to renew a dialogue on the sovereignty of
       the Falklands.
       \"We wish to reaffirm the obligation to resolve the differences between
       Britain and us in the framework of international law and United
       Nations resolutions,\" Kirchner said on Tuesday.
       Britain in January rejected Argentina's latest claim to the islands,
       which it has held and occupied since 1833.
       The Foreign Office in London sought to play down Argentina's latest
       move in the row by issuing a bland statement, pointing out the obvious
       about the legal position.
       \"Regulations governing Argentine territorial waters are a matter for
       the Argentine authorities. This does not affect Falkland
       Islands territorial waters which are controlled by the island
       authorities,\" a statement said.
       It said Argentina and Britain were \"important partners\" and pledged to
       \"cooperate\" on issues in the South Atlantic, where the Falklands are
       located.
       Buenos Aires has urged a solution along the lines of what Britain
       agreed for the Chinese territory of Hong Kong.
       Britain and Argentina's rival claims of ownership over the Falklands
       exploded into war in 1982 after Argentine military rulers seized the
       islands, only to be defeated and expelled by a British naval force.
       The conflict lasted 74 days and cost the lives of 649 Argentine
       soldiers and 255 from Britain.
","2010-02-17 18:20:11",1,"2012-02-27 22:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/86916_re-argentina-and-falklands-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","","allison.fedirka@stratfor.com",""
87759,"Re: Sadr statement
","   Sadrite MPs and certainly other MPs from the Sunnis and Shia parties, Badr
   Org who have 19 MPs, I believe.  

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Yerevan Saeed\" <yerevan.saeed@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, July 11, 2011 5:32:19 PM
   Subject: Re: Sadr statement

   true,  but PM is in charge when the post is vacant.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, July 11, 2011 5:30:42 PM
   Subject: Re: Sadr statement

   but a defense minister hasn't been appointed yet, right?  could this be a
   bilateral agreement with the PM?  who are they going to avoid the
   parliament vote?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Yerevan Saeed\" <yerevan.saeed@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, July 11, 2011 9:29:06 AM
   Subject: Re: Sadr statement

   I am in the processing of getting some insight about the whole pic.   I
   believe we will seen extension of the US troops in Iraq, but a limited
   number though.  
   The deal could be between Iraqi defense minister and the Pentagon and such
   deals dont require to go through parliament voting.   

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Michael Wilson\" <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, July 11, 2011 5:19:59 PM
   Subject: Re: Sadr statement

   In April (below) he  threatened to re-activate Mahdi army so this (not
   reactivating Mahdi army, just keeping PDB) would be new. I also pasted the
   article that spoke about splits and low morale in Mahdi army below
   (thought it had been Yerevan isight but was an article)

     Iraqi cleric issues new warning against U.S. troops
   Sat Apr 9, 2011 -
   http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/09/us-iraq-protests-idUSTRE73816Z20110409

   BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq's fiery anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr will
   \"escalate military resistance\" and unleash his Mehdi Army militia if U.S.
   troops fail to leave Iraq, the cleric was quoted as saying on Saturday.

   On the 8th anniversary of the day U.S. forces toppled Saddam Hussein's
   statue in Baghdad, spokesman Salah al-Ubaidi read a speech from the
   influential Shi'ite cleric to tens of thousands of followers.

   Some carried signs reading \"Occupiers Out\" and \"No to America.\" Others
   burned U.S., Israeli and British flags.

   \"We say to the Black House (White House), 'we are all time bombs and the
   detonators are at the hands of Moqtada al-Sadr.' American troops must
   definitely leave our lands,\" senior Sadr aide Hazem al-Araji told the Sadr
   followers.

   To a wildly cheering crowd in Baghdad's Mustansiriya Square, Ubaidi,
   reading Sadr's speech, said an extension of the U.S. \"occupation\" would
   have two consequences.

   \"First, the escalation of military resistance work and the withdrawal of
   the order freezing the Mehdi Army, in a new statement issued later.
   Second, escalation of peaceful and public resistance through sit-ins and
   protests, to say that the people want the exit of the occupation,\" he
   said.

   Sadr is currently in Iran, a source close to the cleric said.

   The warning came after U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, on a visit to
   Iraq, pressed the Iraqi government for a decision on whether it wanted
   U.S. troops to extend their stay to help fend off a still-lethal
   insurgency.

   MEHDI ARMY

   Some 47,000 remaining forces are scheduled to leave by year's end under a
   security agreement between the two countries.

   Sadr's Mehdi Army militia fought U.S. troops during the height of Iraq's
   sectarian bloodshed in 2006-07, when tens of thousands of Iraqis were
   killed. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki sent government troops to crush the
   militia in 2008.

   U.S. officials and Sunni Arab leaders accused the Mehdi Army of being
   behind many of the sectarian killings in Iraq after the 2003 U.S. invasion
   that deposed Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein.

   Sadr disavowed violence against fellow Iraqis and in 2008 ordered his
   militia to become a humanitarian group. The black-clad fighters have
   maintained a relatively low profile since but U.S. officials still regard
   them with suspicion.

   Sadr's political movement won strong support in elections last year and
   overcame animosity toward Maliki to join his coalition government, formed
   in December after nine months of tense negotiations between Shi'ite, Sunni
   and Kurdish factions.

   Sadr, who fled Iraq in 2006 or 2007 after an arrest warrant was issued for
   him, has lived and studied in neighboring Iran in recent years. He
   returned in early January but did not stay long before heading back to
   Iran.

   Iraq's Mehdi Army faces splits, wary of return to war
   http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/16/us-iraq-security-mehdi-idUSTRE75F4C220110616?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FworldNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+International%29
   Thu Jun 16, 2011 10:44am EDT
   (Reuters) - Iraq's anti-U.S. cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is reviving fears of
   sectarian violence with a warning he will unleash his Shi'ite Mehdi Army
   militia again if U.S. forces stay in the country beyond a year-end
   deadline.

   But for Mehdi Army veterans like Ahmed, who once battled U.S. troops on
   Baghdad's streets, the fighting days are over as Sadr's militia enters
   mainstream politics, struggles with splinter groups, and ex-combatants
   resist a return to war.

   \"All I need to do is stay away from any trouble for another three years,\"
   said Ahmed, who wants to put his guerrilla days behind him to focus on
   college exams and becoming a lawyer. He asked that his surname not be used
   because of his militant past.

   At the height of Iraq's 2006-2007 sectarian slaughter, the Mehdi Army was
   seen by Washington as one of the biggest threats to Iraqi security with
   its young fighters toting rocket launchers and battling U.S. and Iraqi
   troops in the streets.

   Sadr disarmed his militia after Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's
   troops -- backed by American forces -- defeated them in Baghdad and
   southern cities in 2008. His movement has since become a potent force in
   mainstream politics.

   Sadr's anti-U.S. rhetoric still inspires followers, and U.S. and Iraqi
   security officials say Mehdi Army splinter groups still pose a security
   risk, emerging in the form of Shi'ite militia that Washington says are
   backed by Iran.

   But former fighters and security officials say many Mehdi Army veterans
   have too much to lose to pick up the gun again.

   VIOLENCE EBBED

   Iraq's violence has ebbed eight years after the U.S.-led invasion to oust
   Saddam Hussein, but Sunni insurgents and Shi'ite militias still carry out
   daily attacks.

   The United States still has 47,000 troops in Iraq, but their mandate
   expires at the end of this year and Iraq's leaders are debating the
   divisive question of whether to ask some to stay.

   Sadr threatened in April to revive his Mehdi Army if the U.S. troops do
   not all leave Iraq by December 31. He has since brought thousands of
   Shi'ite supporters onto the streets of Baghdad in a show of strength.

   Once a rabble-rousing militant agitator, Sadr is now a powerful member of
   Maliki's cross-sectarian coalition. His group controls 39 seats in the
   325-member parliament, an important bloc in a body divided among Sunni,
   Shi'ite and Kurdish groups.

   The scion of a family of revered Shi'ite clerics, he has taken on a more
   statesman-like approach even if he has not toned down his anti-U.S.
   rhetoric. Last year he acted as the kingmaker whose support allowed Maliki
   to form a fragile, cross-sectarian coalition government.

   That mainstream political clout and the benefits his supporters enjoy mean
   many Mehdi Army veterans may be much less keen to return to arms if Sadr
   makes that call, Mehdi leaders and Iraqi security officials say.

   \"Despite his huge number of supporters, if Moqtada decided to fight now,
   only a few would fight,\" said Abu Sadiq, a senior Mehdi Army leader in
   Sadr City, the vast, poor Shi'ite district of east Baghdad named for
   Moqtada's slain cleric father.

   \"The only ones who will fight are those who have not become contractors,
   or parliament members or gained salaries, cars, homes or government
   posts,\" he said.

   SADRIST SPLINTERS

   U.S. military commanders and Sunni Arab leaders blamed the Shi'ite Mehdi
   Army for much of the bloodshed when thousands of Iraqis were killed during
   sectarian slaughter in 2006-2007.

   Sadr's threats have fueled Sunni Arab worries of a return to religious
   violence.

   U.S. and Iraqi officials say a small Mehdi Army faction, the Promised Day
   Brigade, is still behind attacks on U.S. forces even after Sadr stood down
   the majority of his fighters.

   \"He admitted to attacking us and continuing these attacks, and the
   Promised Day Brigade, that is a Sadrist organization and reports to him,
   have been making attack claims all along,\" said U.S. Army Major Gen.
   Jeffrey Buchanan, a military spokesman.

   Sadr spent much of the most violent period in Iran. His return to Iraq
   this year may have been prompted in part by a need to clean house as
   rivals within the Sadrist movement were challenging his authority.

   Such splits undermine the prospect of a Mehdi Army revival, former
   fighters say.

   \"The danger that Moqtada faces is from his leaders who are competing with
   each other for posts, wealth and positions,\" Abu Moqtada, a former Mehdi
   fighter, said.

   The biggest splinter group, Asaib al-Haq, is already challenging Sadr,
   eroding his militia from within by infiltrating the top echelons of his
   organization, Sadrist sources say.

   Asaib, or the Leagues of Righteousness, is headed by Qais al-Khazili, who
   was a former Sadr spokesman before he broke away. Asaib has its own
   television station and websites, and Washington says it is funded by Iran.

   \"We have some leaders inside Sadr's offices and among Mehdi Army troops
   who follow Sadr publicly but they receive orders from Asaib,\" said one
   Sadrist lawmaker who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of
   the issue.

   One senior Iraqi security official, who declined to be named, said Asaib
   had attracted some skilled Mehdi Army fighters but others were less
   committed.

   \"They are not as strong as before, we know most of them are not willing to
   fight,\" he said.

   But Sadr can still inspire loyal and unquestioning support from young,
   impoverished men within Sadr City, where some believe he is a holy Imam or
   saint.

   \"For me, Moqtada is a saint,\" said Mehdi fighter, Abu Karar. \"I am ready
   to die for him.\"

   On 7/11/11 9:07 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

     i was searching our website before repping this and found out that Sadr
     did this before in 2007. so, it seems like a tactical move. 
     but this doesn't disprove reva's thoughts.

                   Iraq: Al-Sadr Freezes Mehdi Army Activity

     August 29, 2007 | 1402 GMT

     PRINTPRINT Text Resize: 

     [IMG][IMG][IMG]ShareThis

     Radical Iraqi Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr on Aug. 29 ordered his Mehdi
     Army to suspend its activities for six months. Sheikh Hazem al-Araji
     said on Iraqi state television that the purpose of the move is to
     a**rehabilitatea** the organization. Another official from the
     al-Sadrite bloc, Ahmed al-Shaibani, said the suspension means the
     militia will not launch attacks against U.S. and coalition forces.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Michael Wilson\" <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>, \"Analyst List\"
     <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Monday, July 11, 2011 4:56:27 PM
     Subject: Re: Sadr statement

     But note he did say they Promised Day Brigade would keep fighting. In
     fact I think he has said this similar line before, where Promisde dAy
     brigade would stay activiated but Mahdi army would not.

     Remember Yerevan's insight about Sadrites not wanting to be a part of it
     anymore...part of me wonders if he can still activate that many people
     (without a major problem happening first to incite them)

     On 7/11/11 8:53 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

       Sadr's statement on how he will not reactivate the Mahdi militia, said
       during Panetta's visit to Iraq, could be Iran's way of trying to
       reopen a dialogue with the US. Would make sense if they are making
       some progress with the Saudis. Let's keep an eye out for any signs. am
       digging into this

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com


     --
     --
     Emre Dogru
     STRATFOR  
     Cell: +90.532.465.7514
     Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
     emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com


   --
   Yerevan Saeed
   STRATFOR
   Phone: 009647701574587
   IRAQ

   --
   Yerevan Saeed
   STRATFOR
   Phone: 009647701574587
   IRAQ

   --
   Yerevan Saeed
   STRATFOR
   Phone: 009647701574587
   IRAQ
","2011-07-11 16:38:04",1,"2012-08-05 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/87759_re-sadr-statement-.html","yerevan.saeed@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
89233,"[alpha] INSIGHT - CHINA/AUS - Farmland & SOEs - CN65
","   *Questions/responses welcomed.

   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   There is an issue flaring up over Chinese SOEs being rural properties in
   Australia.  The issue has principally arisen as a result of some fairly
   outrageous claims by the Greens in Australia.  
   You might not be aware that the Greens have taken the balance of power in
   the Senate here. They are now running around claiming that there is a huge
   takeover of rural land in Australia by foreigners.
   There is now gong to be a Senate Inquiry into foreign investment in
   agriculture.
   Key to this is the fact that Shenhua has spent A$200 million buying 43
   properties over and surrounding its Watermark coal project in the Upper
   Hunter Valley.  The reason for this is that if they buy the properties,
   they don't have to worry about dealing with the landholders over
   environmental issues.  (Landowners in Australia don't own the minerals in
   the ground, whereas in the US they do.  So you can theoretically mine on
   someone else's land, but you have to deal with them in regulated ways in
   regards to environmental impacts.)
   The National Farmers Federation has said today on ABC News Television that
   there is a need to distinguish between foreign ownership of rural
   properties per se, and the mining versus agriculture debate.  The latter,
   he said, was about the long term sustainability of properties.
   The NFF position is that foreign investment has been critical to enabling
   Australia to stay at the head of the world on agricultural productivity.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com


 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
","2011-07-13 15:27:26",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/89233_-alpha-insight-china-aus-farmland-and-soes-cn65-.html","ben.preisler@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
91622,"[alpha] (FBI) True Psychology of the Insider Spy & Comrade J
","   Feedback from FBI FCI HQS SAIC --

   Totally agree - very interesting.......but, how do we square this profile
   of a life long looser/insider spy with somebody like Comrad J? This guy
   was anything but a loser from early childhood right up until he choked on
   that chicken bone last year.  Every one of the analytical points the
   author makes are exactly the opposit of Comrad J's profile.  Sounds like
   the profile only applies to our insider spies, not the other guys insiders
   who we recruit to spy for us, right?
    
","2011-07-08 18:16:14",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/91622_-alpha-fbi-true-psychology-of-the-insider-spy-and-comrade-j-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
91754,"[latam] =?utf-8?q?Fwd=3A__=5BOS=5D_PARAGUAY/BRAZIL_-_Coordinadora?=
 =?utf-8?q?_Agr=C3=ADcola_del_Paraguay_sent_folder_to_Brazilian_Senator_as?=
 =?utf-8?q?king_for_body_to_intervene_on_behalf_of_Brasiguayos_in_Brazil?=
","   hehe they asked the right senator. Alvaro Dias is a \"hardliner\" when it
   comes to issues with neighboring coutries and also very familiar with the
   subject since he was governor of Parana where many of the first
   Brasiguaios were from when thestarted buying land in Paraguay after the
   construction of Itaipu that displaced many of them on the Brazilian side. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Allison Fedirka\" <allison.fedirka@stratfor.com>
   To: \"LatAm AOR\" <latam@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, July 19, 2011 5:15:53 PM
   Subject: Re: [latam] [OS] PARAGUAY/BRAZIL - Coordinadora AgrAcola del
   Paraguay sent folder to Brazilian Senator asking for body to intervene on
   behalf of Brasiguayos in Brazil

   one interesting side note the the farmers' message to the Brazilian
   Senator was that they were tired of protesting and didn't want quick
   solutions from the Prgyn Govt only to have a new problem arise later.
   The Paraguayan Govt has also come out saying that they don't see the
   Brasiguayo issue as one that will hurt its relationship with Brazil

   Productor afirma que recurrieron al Senado brasileA+-o \"cansados de hacer
   tractorazos\"
   19 de Julio de 2011 -
   http://www.ultimahora.com/notas/447291-Productor-afirma-que-recurrieron-al-Senado-brasileno-cansados-de-hacer-tractorazos

   Valter Mesch, productor brasiguayo de la zona de Santa Rita, dijo que
   recurrieron al Senado brasileA+-o por el tema de las ocupaciones de tierra
   en Alto ParanA!, \"cansados de hacer tractorazos y salir a las calles\".

   El productor dijo en contacto con radio Monumental 1080 AM que a travA(c)s
   de la Coordinadora AgrAcola del Paraguay (CAP) enviaron una carpeta al
   senador brasileA+-o, A*lvaro Dias, expresando la inquietud de los colonos
   brasiguayos sobre las ocupaciones de tierras en la zona fronteriza, de las
   que sostiene son constantemente vActimas.

   \"Ya estamos cansados de hacer tractorazos, ya no queremos salir a las
   calles, lastimosamente la Justicia paraguaya soluciona el problema, pero
   no pasa mucho tiempo y ya viene otro problema\", sostuvo al justificar el
   hecho de haber recurrido a las autoridades brasileA+-as por el conflicto
   de tierras en Alto ParanA!

   ManifestA^3 que aguardarA!n si es que las autoridades de su paAs pueden
   hacer algo por ellos vAa diplomA!tica, indicando que lo que buscan es que
   se dA(c) un corte definitivo al tema de las ocupaciones.

   Ante este pedido al Brasil, el jefe de Gabinete de la Presidencia de la
   RepA-oblica, Miguel LA^3pez Perito, dijo, segA-on informa IP Paraguay, que
   este tema responde a una cuestiA^3n interna, por lo que no se necesita
   abordar en forma bilateral con Brasil la soluciA^3n a la problemA!tica por
   la tenencia de la tierra suscitada entre colonos brasileA+-os y dirigentes
   campesinos en Alto ParanA!.

   \"Es un tema de soberanAa\", por tanto, la soluciA^3n y las medidas que tome
   el paAs no son \"cuestiones bilaterales\", respondiA^3 este martes, al ser
   consultado sobre la decisiA^3n del grupo de colonos de solicitar la
   intervenciA^3n del Gobierno brasileA+-o para dar una salida al conflicto
   de la tierra en la zona fronteriza.
","2011-07-19 22:24:46",1,"2012-03-13 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/91754_-latam-utf-8-q-fwd-3a__-5bos-5d_paraguay-brazil_.html","paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com","mailto:latam@stratfor.com","latam@stratfor.com",""
92057,"Re: Greetings from Washington, DC
","   Mr. Kenes,
   My schedule changed again, and it looks like I will be available to meet
   you at 3pm today. I will also have my assistant, Emre Dogru, with me.
   Looking forward to meeting you.
   Best,
   Reva

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Mar 7, 2010, at 5:19 PM, BA 1/4lent KeneAA* <b.kenes@todayszaman.com>
   wrote:

     Dear Miss. Bhalla,

      

     I will be at the office at 3 pm on Monday. It will be a great pleasure
     for me to have a cup of coffee with youa*|

      

     If it is suitable for you, please confirm that you will visit our
     officea*|

      

     Best,

     BA 1/4lent KeneAA*              
     Today's Zaman                   
                                     
                                     
     Editor-in-Chief                 
                                     
     Tel     (212)                   
     Faks    (212)                   
     E-posta b.kenes@todayszaman.com 

      

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2010 7:32 PM
     To: BA 1/4lent KeneAA*
     Subject: Greetings from Washington, DC

      

     Dear Mr. Kenes,

      

     I met your colleague, Ali Aslan, last week in DC, where I am based as an
     analyst for STRATFOR. I told him that I'll be in Istanbul this week and
     he strongly recommended that I get in touch with you. If you are
     available some time early in the week (Monday, the 8th, perhaps?) to
     meet, please let me know. I've been working on Turkey issues for a while
     and your publication does very important work. It would be great to sit
     down and chat with you if you have some time.

      

     All the best,

      

     Reva Bhalla

     Director of Analysis

     STRATFOR

     www.stratfor.com

     Director of Analysis

     Senior Analyst for Middle East, South Asia and Latin America

     +1 (512) 699-8385

      
","2010-03-08 09:50:51",1,"2012-03-03 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/92057_re-greetings-from-washington-dc-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","","b.kenes@todayszaman.com",""
92375,"Re: e-introduction
","   Yes. Let's meet in my office at the prime ministry. It's the central
   building of the prime ministry in kizilay and you will enter thr the B
   gate.
   Ibrahim

   Bu e-posta, Turkcell BlackBerry ile go:nderilmistir.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 5 Mar 2010 17:51:18 -0600
   To: Ibrahim Kalin<ibrahimkalin@gmail.com>
   Subject: Re: e-introduction
   Dear Mr. Kalin,
   I wanted to thank you again for making some time for me during my visit to
   Turkey. Are you still available Wed, March 10 at 1600?  If so, I will make
   plans to be in Ankara that afternoon. 
   Looking forward to it,
   Reva
   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Analyst for Middle East, South Asia and Latin America
   STRATFOR
   +1 (512) 699-8385
   On Feb 28, 2010, at 10:52 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     Dear Ibrahim,
     Thank you so much for agreeing to make the time for me. I'm really
     looking forward to familiarizing myself with your country. Nuh and I had
     a very lively exchange last week over coffee and he said you would be
     perfect to talk to. 
     I haven't finalized my plans between Istanbul and Ankara yet, but I can
     plan to be in Ankara Wed, March 10 to meet you.  Please let me know if
     your schedule changes ... I know how busy you must be. Again, thank you
     for making the time.
     Looking forward to meeting you.
     All the best,
     Reva
     Reva Bhalla
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Analyst for Middle East, South Asia and Latin America
     STRATFOR
     +1 (512) 699-8385
     On Feb 27, 2010, at 8:51 AM, Ibrahim Kalin wrote:

       dear nuh;
       thanks for your message and for introducing ms. bhalla. i will be
       happy to meet her in ankara or in istanbul depending my schedule. i
       will have a very hectic schedule on the days she will be in turkey but
       i will try my best to make time for her.
       right now, wednesday afternoon march 10 looks open. we can meet in my
       office in the prime ministry in ankara at 16.00 but let's confirm the
       day and the time next week.
       regards,
       ibrahim

       2010/2/27 Nuh YILMAZ <nuhyilmaz@gmail.com>

         Dear Ibrahim,
         I hope this message finds you well. The reason of my e-mail is to
         introduce Reva Bhalla to you. Ms. Bhalla works for Stratfor as the
         Director of Research and has recently been working  on Turkey and
         the Middle East as part of her responsibilities. Her expertise on
         many areas stretching from energy issues to Afghanistan is
         impressive. She will be in Turkey in between 5-15 March and want to
         see people who work on foreign policy, domestic politics and energy
         isues. I advised her to see you since you focus on all of these
         issues. I know your schedule is extremely tight but it would be
         great if you can find some time to meet her.
         Dear Reva,
         Mr. Kalin is Chief Advisor to PM ErdoA:Yan on Foreign Policy. As he
         was the former Director General of SETA and one of the leading great
         intellectuals of Turkey who has international reputation, he has
         expertise on many issues that we have discussed. I think having a
         meeting with Mr. Kalin would be one of the best things that can
         happen to you in Turkey.
         I let you arrange your meeting (hopefully), and would love to hear
         from you soon,
         best regards,
         Nuh YILMAZ
         Director
          
         SETA Foundation at Washington D.C.
         1025 Connecticut Avenue, N.W., Suite 1106
         Washington, D.C., 20036
         ph: 202-223-9885 ext. 301
         fax: 202-223-6099
         nuhyilmaz@gmail.com
         nyilmaz@setav.org
         www.setav.org
         www.setadc.org
","2010-03-06 08:39:13",1,"2012-03-09 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/92375_re-e-introduction-.html","ibrahimkalin@gmail.com","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com",""
92424,"[latam] PUP Brief 110718
","   PUP Brief
   110718

   PARAGUAY
     * Jailed EPP chief will present book on book that argues in favor of the
       use of arms to produce radical change in the country
     * Concepcion police studying creation of rapid reaction force to respond
       to EPP attacks, especially against police
     * Brasiguayos organizing meeting in Foz de Iguacu at to ask Brazilian
       Govt to mediate solution to land disputes, should be around end of
       August start of Sept
   URUGUAY
     * Eleuterio Fernandez Huidobro Uruguay's new Defense Min
     * Natl. Colonization Institute wants to take more action, start public
       discussion to avoid foreign control of lands
   PERU
     * Humala's popularity falls to 41% (from 70%) since he took office
     * Toledo to restructure Peru Posible, says its already on the road to
       2016 presidential elections
     * Peru needs to come up with its own development model, not copy others,
       says Humala
     * Stocks Surge as Humala Says Hea**ll Keep Velarde Atop Central Bank
     * Energy Min announced find of gas well in central area of jungle,
       estimates Peru's gas reservese to be good for 40-50 years
     * During Humala's visit, Calderon voices hope that Mex Congress will
       approve FTA with Peru
   PARAGUAY
   Paraguay: jefe guerrillero anuncia presentaciA^3n de libro
   07.18.11 -
   http://www.elnuevoherald.com/2011/07/18/985992/paraguay-jefe-guerrillero-anuncia.html

   ASUNCION -- Alcides Oviedo, jefe encarcelado del grupo guerrillero
   EjA(c)rcito del Pueblo Paraguayo (EPP), presentarA! un libro reivindicando
   el uso de las armas para \"producir un cambio radical en el paAs\".

   La abogada de Oviedo, Daisy Irala, informA^3 que el lanzamiento de la obra
   serA! el martes en el cuartel policial antimotines en las afueras de
   AsunciA^3n, donde Oviedo cumple una condena de 18 aA+-os por el secuestro
   con fines extorsivos en 2001 de Edith Debernardi, nuera del ex ministro de
   EconomAa Enzo Debernardi. Para su liberaciA^3n fue pagado un rescate de
   dos millones de dA^3lares, segA-on fuentes policiales.

   No obstante, el ministro de Justicia y Trabajo, Humberto Blasco, informA^3
   en conferencia de prensa que \"el gobierno no permitirA! que un condenado
   presente un libro en donde haya apologAa del delito. Vamos a leer el libro
   y si constatamos apologAa, no habrA! acto\".

   Irala sostuvo que la obra, de contenido izquierdista, \"dice que el cambio
   radical se tiene que dar a travA(c)s de las armas porque las clases
   dominantes no querrA!n dejar sus privilegios, entonces el pueblo en uso de
   las armas debe tratar de aplastar a esa clase dominante. Eso es lo A-onico
   que dice el libro y que, eventualmente, podrAa ser malinterpretado\".

   Ante el encarcelamiento de Oviedo, la jefatura del EPP quedA^3 en manos de
   su cuA+-ado Osvaldo Villalba, hermano de su esposa Carmen, tambiA(c)n
   cumpliendo una pena de 18 aA+-os de prisiA^3n por la misma causa.

   El EPP reapareciA^3 la semana pasada quemando un tractor en el interior de
   una hacienda en el norteA+-o departamento de ConcepciA^3n. En las
   inmediaciones del lugar los agentes policiales encontraron un campo para
   prA!ctica de tiro, segA-on confirmA^3 el lunes el comisario Aldo Pastore,
   jefe del grupo antiguerrillero.

   Paraguay: guerrilla leader announces book launch

   ASUNCION - Alcides Oviedo, imprisoned leader of the People's Army
   guerrilla group, Paraguay (EPP), submit a book claiming the use of weapons
   to \"produce a radical change in the country.\"

   Oviedo's lawyer, Daisy Irala, said the launch of the book will be Tuesday
   at the riot police headquarters on the outskirts of AsunciA^3n, where
   Oviedo is serving 18 years for kidnapping for ransom in 2001 Edith
   Debernardi, daughter former finance minister Enzo Debernardi. For his
   release was paid a ransom of two million dollars, police said.

   However, the Minister of Justice and Labor, Humberto Blasco, said at a
   news conference that \"the government will not allow a sentenced person has
   a book in which advocacy of crime. Let's read the book and if we find
   apology, no action \".

   Irala said that the work of leftist content, \"says the radical change has
   to be given through the weapons because the ruling classes will not want
   to leave their privileges, then the people using weapons to try to crush
   that kind dominant. That's all the book says that eventually could be
   misunderstood. \"

   Faced with imprisonment of Oviedo, the head of EPP was left to his brother
   Osvaldo Villalba, brother of his wife Carmen, also serving a sentence of
   18 years in prison for the same reason.

   The EPP reappeared last week burning a tractor inside a farm in the
   northern province of ConcepciA^3n. In the immediate vicinity of the police
   officers found a field for target practice, as the commissioner said
   Monday Aldo Pastore, head-guerrilla group.

   Planean instalar un puesto policial de reacciA^3n rA!pida ante el EPP
   18 de Julio de 2011 12:24-
   http://www.abc.com.py/nota/planean-instalar-un-puesto-policial-de-reaccion-rapida-ante-el-epp/

   La instalaciA^3n de un puesto policial en donde estarA! un grupo de
   reacciA^3n rA!pida en caso de que aparezca el EjA(c)rcito del Pueblo
   Paraguayo (EPP) serA! tratada este lunes en una reuniA^3n entre el
   comisario Aldo Pastore y el ministro del Interior, Federico AcuA+-a.

   El corresponsal de ABC Color en ConcepciA^3n, Aldo Rojas, informA^3 que
   por la tarde se reunirA!n Pastore y AcuA+-a para tratar sobre la
   posibilidad de instalar un puesto policial en la ciudad de Hugua A*andu.

   Dicho puesto policial tendrA! policAas especializados en temas de
   secuestro y un helicA^3ptero de la PolicAa, en caso de que el EPP ataque
   alguna estancia o cuartel de la zona. De esta forma los uniformados
   tendrA!n una reacciA^3n rA!pida.

   Incursiones

   El jefe de la Fuerza Operativa de la PolicAa Especializada (FOPE)
   informA^3 al corresponsal Aldo Rojas que los operativos en la zona de Paso
   Barreto, en bA-osqueda del EPP, siguen intensamente pero con personal de
   relevo.

   El trabajo se centra en la estancia a**Amandaa**, donde la semana pasada
   los del EPP supuestamente quemaron una topadora.

   TambiA(c)n hallaron un precario stand de tiros, donde supuestamente los
   miembros del EPP dispararon contra un A!rbol entre 30 y 40 balazos.

   They plan to install a police post for rapid reaction on the EPP

   The installation of a police station where it will be a group of fast
   reaction in case you see the Paraguayan People's Army (EPP) will be
   treated Monday at a meeting between the Commissioner Aldo Pastore and
   Interior Minister Federico AcuA+-a.

   The correspondent of ABC Color in Concepcion, Aldo Rojas reported that the
   evening will meet AcuA+-a Pastore and to discuss the possibility of
   installing a police checkpoint in the city of Hugua Nandu.

   This will put police officers who specialize in kidnapping and a police
   helicopter in the event of any attack that PPE barracks room or area. In
   this way the soldiers have a quick reaction.

   raids

   The head of the Task Force of the Special Police (FOPE) Aldo Rojas
   correspondent reported that the operations in the area of a**a**Paso
   Barreto, in search of the EPP, are intensely personal but over.

   The work focuses on the farm \"Amanda\", where last week the EPP allegedly
   burned a bulldozer.

   They also found a poor shooting booth, where members of EPP allegedly
   fired a tree 30 to 40 bullets.

   Brasiguayos pedirA!n intermediaciA^3n del Brasil en el conflicto por la
   tierra
   18 de Julio de 2011 00:00 -
   http://www.abc.com.py/nota/brasiguayos-pediran-intermediacion-del-brasil-en-el-conflicto-por-la-tierra/

   Productores brasiguayos estA!n organizando un encuentro en Foz de
   YguazA-o, donde solicitarA!n la intermediaciA^3n del Gobierno del Brasil,
   para buscar una soluciA^3n definitiva al conflicto de tierra que soportan
   desde hace aA+-os. Los colonos brasileA+-os y sus descendientes dijeron
   que estA!n cansados de las invasiones y de las extorsiones de las que son
   vActimas de parte de los autodenominados sintierras y funcionarios
   pA-oblicos de todos los estamentos. Sin embargo, RubA(c)n Sanabria,
   dirigente de la CAP, pidiA^3 no inmiscuir en el tema a autoridades de otro
   paAs.

   CIUDAD DEL ESTE (FermAn Jara, de nuestra redacciA^3n regional). El
   encuentro se realizarAa ya a fines de agosto o comienzo de setiembre. Un
   grupo de productores brasiguayos de la zona sur del Alto ParanA! se
   reuniA^3 el pasado viernes a la tarde con el senador Alvaro Dias, quien es
   del opositor Partido de la Social Democracia BrasileA+-a (PSDB). El
   encuentro fue en el    aeropuerto de Foz, donde el vuelo del legislador
   hizo una escala.  

   Valter Mesch, quien reside en la zona de IruA+-a, dijo que ya estA!n
   cansados de las invasiones de las que son vActimas. a**No podemos estar
   trabajando en estas condicionesa**, dijo el brasiguayo, quien dijo que
   reside en el Paraguay  hace 30 aA+-os, segA-on publica el diario a**Gazeta
   Do IguazA-oa** de Foz.  

   Los productores brasiguayos indicaron que actualmente estA!n mA!s
   preocupados por la situaciA^3n atendiendo que en forma abierta el Gobierno
   del presidente Fernando Lugo estuvo apoyando las ocupaciones en la zona de
   A*acunday, donde invadieron al menos 12.000 hectA!reas de tierra
   productiva. Los seudosintierras dejaron el A!rea invadida, pero ya
   comenzaron a amenazar con mA!s invasiones.  

   Con el apoyo de los concejales de Foz de YguazA-o, los productores
   brasiguayos    indicaron que realizarA!n un encuentro en dicha ciudad
   fronteriza con el Paraguay para analizar la situaciA^3n y exigir al
   Gobierno del Brasil  intermediar ante el Gobierno paraguayo para buscar
   una soluciA^3n definitiva a los conflictos por la tierra, ademA!s
   denunciaron que son permanentemente extorsionados por funcionarios
   pA-oblicos.  

   El senador Dias ya se pronunciA^3 a favor de los brasiguayos en el
   plenario de la CA!mara de Senadores la semana pasada, exigiendo que su
   Gobierno  intermedie a favor de los colonos brasileA+-os, alegando que son
   vActimas de despojos.  

   El Congreso brasileA+-o estA! en receso y volverA! a sesionar en la
   segunda quincena de agosto. a**Como ya anunciA(c), voy a exigir que la
   ComisiA^3n de RR.EE. y de DD.HH. analicen la situaciA^3n de los
   brasiguayos en una audiencia  pA-oblica para la cual serA!n invitados las
   productores y representantes del Gobierno paraguayoa**, dijo el senador.  

   El concejal de Foz HermA^3genes de Oliveira dijo que enviA^3 sendas notas
   al  Congreso brasileA+-o, a la CancillerAa brasileA+-a y a la ministra
   jefe de la Casa Civil de la presidencia del Brasil, Glesi Hoffmann, para
   que se tomen medidas a favor de los productores brasiguayos.  

   Los productores brasiguayos y las autoridades municipales de Foz de
   YguazA-o quieren que representantes del Gobierno brasileA+-o estA(c)n en
   el encuentro de los productores, para que se vea una soluciA^3n definitiva
   al conflicto por la tenencia de tierra en Paraguay.  

   El dirigente de la Coordinadora AgrAcola del Paraguay (CAP) en el Alto
   ParanA!, ingeniero RubA(c)n Sanabria, consultado sobre el encuentro de los
   productores brasiguayos con el senador Dias y la idea de realizar una
   reuniA^3n, dijo que desconoce el tema.

   a**No inmiscuir a autoridades de otro paAsa**

   IndicA^3 que ellos, como gremio, seguirA!n insistiendo con las autoridades
   paraguayas para buscar soluciones y que el problema debe ser solucionado
   aquA internamente, y no inmiscuir a autoridades de otro paAs. Aunque dijo
   que es vA!lida la preocupaciA^3n que existe en el Brasil.  

   La actual ministra de la Casa Civil de la Presidencia del Brasil, Glesi
   Hoffmann, en febrero pasado ya se reuniA^3 con un grupo de productores
   brasiguayos. En ese momento la misma era senadora por el oficialista
   Partido de los Trabajadores (PT). La entonces legisladora se comprometiA^3
   a buscar los mecanismos necesarios para que el Gobierno del Brasil busque
   intermediar ante el paraguayo y encontrar una soluciA^3n al problema. El
   senador Dias en el 2007 participA^3 en AsunciA^3n del lanzamiento de la
   candidatura presidencial de Lino Oviedo y pidiA^3 apoyo al general
   retirado.

   Brasiguayos asked brokering of Brazil in the land dispute

   Brasiguayos producers are organizing a meeting in Foz de Iguazu, which
   requested the mediation of the Government of Brazil to seek a solution to
   the conflict of land bearing years. The Brazilian settlers and their
   descendants say they are tired of invasions and extortion of the victims
   from the self landless and public officials of all levels. However,
   RubA(c)n Sanabria, director of the CAP, asked not to intrude on the
   subject to authorities in another country.

   This was the image that was last week A*acunday area. At least 12,000
   hectares were occupied.
   CIUDAD DEL ESTE (Fermin Jara, our regional language). The meeting will
   take place as late August or early September. A group of producers
   brasiguayos the southern part of Alto ParanA! met last Friday afternoon
   with Senator Alvaro Dias, who is the opposition Party of Brazilian Social
   Democracy (PSDB). The meeting was at the airport in Foz, where the flight
   of the legislature made a stopover.

   Valter Mesch, who lives in the area of a**a**Pamplona, a**a**said they are
   tired of the invasions of the victims. \"We can not work under these
   conditions,\" said Brasiguayos, who said he lives in Paraguay 30 years ago,
   as published by the newspaper \"Gazeta do IguaAS:u\" in Foz.

   Producers indicated brasiguayos currently more concerned about the
   situation openly serving in the government of President Fernando Lugo was
   supporting occupations A*acunday area where at least 12,000 hectares
   invaded productive land. The seudosintierras left the invaded area, but
   began to threaten to further invasions.

   With the support of the aldermen of Foz de Iguazu, brasiguayos producers
   indicated that a meeting held in that city on the border with Paraguay to
   discuss the situation and demand the Government of Brazil to mediate the
   Paraguayan government to seek a solution to the conflict the land, besides
   being constantly denounced extortion by public officials.

   Senator Dias already ruled in favor of brasiguayos in the plenary of the
   Senate last week, demanding that the Government procures on behalf of the
   Brazilian settlers, claiming they are victims of plunder.

   The Brazilian Congress is in recess and will convene in the second half of
   August. \"As I announced, I will require that the Commission of Foreign
   Affairs DD.HH. and analyze the situation of brasiguayos at a public
   hearing which will be invited to the producers and representatives of the
   Paraguayan government, \"the senator said.

   Hermogenes Councilman Foz de Oliveira said he sent two notes to the
   Brazilian Congress, the Brazilian Foreign Ministry and the chief minister
   of the Civil House of the Presidency of Brazil, Glesien Hoffmann, to take
   measures for producers brasiguayos.

   Brasiguayos producers and municipal authorities in Foz do IguaAS:u want
   the Brazilian government representatives at the meeting are producers, so
   you can see a solution to the conflict over land tenure in Paraguay.

   The leader of the Agricultural Coordinator of Paraguay (CAP) in the Upper
   ParanA!, RubA(c)n Sanabria engineer, when asked about the meeting of
   producers with Senator brasiguayos Days and the idea of a**a**a meeting,
   said that unknown subject.

   \"Do not meddle authorities of another country\"

   He said that they, as a guild, continue to insist with the Paraguayan
   authorities to find solutions and the problem should be solved internally
   here, and not intrude authorities of another country. While saying that it
   is valid concern in Brazil.

   The current Minister of the Civil House of the Presidency of Brazil,
   Glesien Hoffmann, last February and met with a group of producers
   brasiguayos. At that time it was Senator the ruling Workers' Party (PT).
   The legislator then promised to find the mechanisms necessary for the
   Government of Brazil with Paraguay's broker search and find a solution.
   Senator Days in 2007 participated in the launch of the Assumption
   presidential candidacy of Lino Oviedo and requested support to retired
   general.

   URUGUAY
   Mujica apelA^3 a Huidobro para articular diA!logo con FF.AA.
   18.7.2011 -
   http://www.ultimasnoticias.com.uy/Edicion-UN/articulos/prints-2011jul16/act06.html

   El jefe de Estado nombrA^3 ministro de Defensa a FernA!ndez Huidobro para
   suplir a Rosadilla. Pretende una figura que logre articular la relaciA^3n
   del gobierno con los militares.

   El presidente Mujica eligiA^3 al ex guerrillero y senador Eleuterio
   FernA!ndez Huidobro -uno de sus compaA+-eros mA!s cercanos de lucha- para
   sustituir a Luis Rosadilla al frente del Ministerio de Defensa Nacional.
   Lo hizo porque necesitaba a alguien de la \"guardia vieja\" en ese lugar
   estratA(c)gico del gobierno, donde pretende \"no improvisar\" y tener a una
   persona de \"confianza polAtica\".

   Una fuente de Torre Ejecutiva explicA^3 a Ultimas Noticias que las
   energAas de Huidobro estarA!n destinadas a dirigir la polAtica de Defensa
   en sus grandes lAneas, mantendrA! la relaciA^3n directa con los
   comandantes en jefe de las Fuerzas Armadas y serA! el nexo con el
   presidente. Por eso, relatA^3 la misma fuente oficial, la figura del
   subsecretario Jorge MenA(c)ndez (Partido Socialista) cobra fuerza en la
   cartera para contribuir en las cuestiones que llevan mA!s tiempo y
   dedicaciA^3n.

   Huidobro (conocido en la izquierda por su apodo \"A*ato\") es la figura mA!s
   visible de la primera direcciA^3n del Movimiento de LiberaciA^3n
   Nacional-Tupamaros (MLN-T), el grupo guerrillero que se alzA^3 en armas
   antes de la dictadura (1973-1985), del que tambiA(c)n formA^3 parte
   JosA(c) Mujica. Siempre reconocido por su interA(c)s por las cuestiones de
   la defensa (en el Parlamento siempre integrA^3 la comisiA^3n del ramo),
   participA^3 antes y despuA(c)s del perAodo de facto en negociaciones de
   pactos con militares. \"Sabe lo que piensan, quA(c) sienten y cA^3mo
   entrarles a los militares\", explicA^3 a Ultimas Noticias Mauricio
   Rosencof, ex guerrillero tupamaro, con quien compartiA^3 lucha y calabozo.

   \"Me tengo que ir a un velorio, pero les quiero comunicar que, dada la
   situaciA^3n de salud del ministro de Defensa, la semana entrante el
   prA^3ximo ministro de Defensa va a ser Eleuterio FernA!ndez, el ex
   senador. Se los acabo de comunicar a los ministros, se los comunico a
   ustedes\". Con esas palabras, Mujica anunciA^3 su medida ayer, en una fugaz
   conferencia de prensa -sin preguntas y parado-, tras el Consejo de
   Ministros especial celebrado en la residencia de SuA!rez y Reyes.

   \"Entra al gabinete un peso pesado de la polAtica\", considerA^3 Rosencof.
   Ayer, consultado por elobservador.com.uy, Huidobro dijo ser un \"soldado\"
   del presidente.

   Con el nuevo ministro, Mujica respeta el reparto de cargos en el gabinete
   entre los sectores de la coaliciA^3n de izquierda, ya que Huidobro
   representa y lidera a la Corriente de AcciA^3n y Pensamiento-Libertad
   (Cap-L), a la que tambiA(c)n pertenece Rosadilla.

   Varios son los desafAos que deberA! enfrentar el nuevo secretario de
   Estado, como irregularidades en la Armada y el prA^3ximo recambio de
   comandante en el EjA(c)rcito (ver recuadro).

   El A-oltimo episodio pA-oblico protagonizado por Huidobro fue el 6 de mayo
   con la renuncia al Senado, provocada por su rechazo visceral a la
   anulaciA^3n de la ley de Caducidad que pretendAa aprobar el Frente Amplio.
   El ex legislador considerA^3 la intenciA^3n como un \"error polAtico\".

   En la oposiciA^3n la noticia fue bien recibida. Para el diputado blanco
   Javier GarcAa (Alianza Nacional), la designaciA^3n significa una
   \"oportunidad\" para \"reencauzar\" el discurso de \"acercamiento\" hacia las
   Fuerzas Armadas pronunciado por Mujica al inicio de su administraciA^3n.

   SeA+-as personales del a**A*atoa**

   Huidobro (\"A*ato\") naciA^3 en Montevideo el 14 de marzo de 1942. IntegrA^3
   \"El coordinador\" y el MLN-T desde sus orAgenes. Se formA^3 en la
   preparatoria de abogacAa, fue bancario y dedicA^3 buena parte de su vida a
   escribir, sobre todo despuA(c)s de la dictadura, para contar la historia
   guerrillera y su experiencia en la cA!rcel. Fue columnista del semanario
   \"Mate Amargo\" y luego de a**La RepA-oblicaa** (donde integra hoy el
   consejo editor). Ya dentro del MPP fue electo diputado suplente en 1994, y
   senador titular en 1999 y 2004. RenovA^3 la banca por la Cap-L, el sector
   escindido del MPP que fundA^3.

   Mujica Huidobro appealed to articulate dialogue with armed forces

   The head of State appointed Defence Minister Fernandez Huidobro Rosadilla
   to supply. Intended a figure who managed to coordinate the government's
   relationship with the military.

   Mujica elected president and former guerrilla Senator Eleuterio FernA!ndez
   Huidobro, one of his closest companions fight-to replace Luis Rosadilla as
   Minister of National Defence. He did it because I needed someone from the
   \"old guard\" in this vantage point the government, which seeks \"not to
   improvise\" and have a person of \"political trust\".

   Executive Tower One source told the Ultimas Noticias Huidobro energies
   will be designed to direct the defense policy in its broad lines, maintain
   a direct relationship with the commanders of the Armed Forces and will
   liaise with the president. Therefore, said the same official source, the
   figure of Secretary Jorge Menendez (Partido Socialista) is gaining
   strength in the portfolio to contribute on issues that take more time and
   dedication.

   Huidobro (known on the left by his nickname \"Pug\") is the most visible
   figure in the first direction of movement Tupamaros National Liberation
   (MLN-T), the guerrilla group that took up arms before the dictatorship
   (1973 - 1985), which was also part of Jose Mujica. Always known for his
   interest in matters of defense (always in Parliament member of the
   commission in the industry), participated in before and after the de facto
   military pacts with negotiations. \"You know what they think, what they
   feel and how to dig into the military,\" explained Maurice Rosencof Ultimas
   Noticias, a former Tupamaro guerrilla, who shared struggle and jail.

   \"I have to go to a funeral, but I would like to report that, given the
   state of health of the defense minister, next week the next defense
   minister will be Eleuterio Fernandez, the former senator. They are just
   communicating to ministers, are communicated to you. \" With those words,
   as Mujica announced yesterday in a brief press conference, no questions
   asked and stopped, after the Special Council of Ministers held at the
   residence of Suarez and Reyes.

   \"Come to the cabinet a political heavyweight,\" he said Rosencof.
   Yesterday, consulted elobservador.com.uy, Huidobro said was a \"soldier\" of
   the president.

   With the new minister, Mujica respects the division of cabinet posts among
   the sectors of the left coalition, as Huidobro represents and leads the
   current of thought and action-Freedom (Cap-L), which also belongs
   Rosadilla .

   There are several challenges facing the new secretary of state, as
   irregularities in the Navy and the upcoming replacement of the commander
   in the army (see box).

   The last episode featuring Huidobro went public on 6 May with the
   resignation to the Senate, caused by its rejection gut to the
   nullification of the law Expiration intended to approve the Frente Amplio.
   Former legislator considered intended as a \"political mistake.\"

   In opposition, the news was well received. For the deputy White Javier
   GarcAa (National Alliance), the designation means an \"opportunity\" to
   \"redirect\" the speech \"close\" to the Armed Forces Mujica delivered by the
   beginning of his administration.

   Personal details of \"Nato\"

   Huidobro (\"NATO\") was born in Montevideo on March 14, 1942. Integrated
   \"coordinator\" and the MLN-T since its inception. He trained at the school
   of law, was Banking and devoted much of his life to writing, especially
   after the dictatorship, to tell the story and their experience in
   guerrilla jail. He was a columnist for the weekly \"Mate Amargo\" and then
   \"The Republic\" (which now includes the editorial board). Once inside the
   MPP was elected alternate deputy in 1994 and senator in 1999 and 2004
   holder. Banking renewed by Cap-L, the sector split of the MPP he founded.

Nuevo ministro de Defensa uruguayo

   Lunes 18 de Julio de 2011 09:01-
   http://www.defensa.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4198:nuevo-ministro-de-defensa-uruguayo&catid=55:latinoamerica&Itemid=163

   Eleuterio FernA!ndez Huidobro, hasta hace poco senador a**puesto al que
   renunciA^3 tras sentirse obligado, contra su voluntad, a votar una virtual
   derogaciA^3n de la Ley de Caducidad o amnistAa a los militares por los
   excesos cometidos durante la dictadura que acabA^3 en 1985, que fue dos
   veces ratificada en plebiscito-, tupamaro histA^3rico y participante en
   diversas acciones armadas (entre ellas el absurdo  intento de tomar la
   ciudad de Pando, en 1968),  asA como la fuga masiva del antiguo penal y
   hoy centro comercial Punta Carretas, fue nombrado ministro de Defensa
   Nacional, sustituyendo su correligionario dimitido Luis Rosadilla.
   TambiA(c)n participA^3 en negociaciones con los militares en pos de una
   posible tregua en los enfrentamientos entre el grupo terrorista y los
   uniformados en 1972.

   Empleado bancario, periodista mordaz y hasta ahora directivo del diario La
   RepA-oblica, estA! entre los mA!s firmes partidarios de dar vuelta la
   pA!gina al recurrente y desgastado tema de continuar enjuiciando a
   militares por su accionar durante el viejo rA(c)gimen cAvico-militar, en
   el que tienen interA(c)s tanto grupos del ala mas radical del oficialismo,
   como el extremista Partido por la Victoria del Pueblo, asA como por el
   ortodoxo Partido Comunista, de fuerte posicionamiento en el Poder
   Judicial, entornos culturales y el sindicalismo. FernA!ndez es el mA!s
   habitual y calificado interlocutor con la logia castrense Tenientes de
   Artigas, ultranacionalista, neofalangista, antiliberal y parcialmente
   antisemita, que, no obstante, ha dado algunas figuras moderadas al
   escenario polAtico-militar, cuyos miembros presumen de honradez y tienen
   apreciable peso actual entre las Fuerzas Armadas.
   A fines de los noventa, con el hoy presidente Mujica, mantuvo
   conversaciones con uniformados de esa procedencia para sellar asuntos del
   pasado, las cuales no llegaron a concretar una soluciA^3n, aunque las
   instancias de diA!logo continA-oan. Recientemente, Fernandez Huidobro
   afirmA^3 la inocencia del general Miguel Dalmao, primer oficial activo y
   con mando actualmente procesado sin pruebas, pues cuando era alfA(c)rez en
   1974 en el cuartel que se encontraba falleciA^3 en condiciones dudosas una
   detenida, dirigente de zona del entonces proscripto Partido Comunista, hoy
   decidido a dar su propia y peculiar batalla judicial por el pasado en
   varios frentes, mA!s allA! de la opiniA^3n del resto del oficialismo. El
   nuevo ministro  es uno de los pocos vocacionales en asuntos
   estratA(c)gicos y de Defensa dentro del entorno del Gobierno.
   Como periodista aseverA^3 su convicciA^3n sobre la importancia de
   resguardar y aumentar la soberanAa marAtima uruguaya y mejorar la
   capacidad defensiva de la Fuerza AA(c)rea, asA como impulsar las energAas
   alternativas. En 2007, junto a otras figuras conocidas, como el anterior
   ministro, Luis Rosadilla, dejA^3 el Movimiento de ParticipaciA^3n Popular
   -brazo polAtico partidario, dentro del Frente Amplio, principalmente de
   los Tupamaros- para crear un grupo algo mA!s moderado, denominado
   Corriente de AcciA^3n y Pensamiento-Libertad, al que, sin embargo, se le
   achaca la presencia de dirigentes corruptos (como el ex legislador
   Leonardo Nicolini, dos veces apartado de las cA!maras por actitudes
   fraudulentas y que tratA^3 con Marruecos para denostar al Frente
   Polisario) o la probable financiaciA^3n parcial de sus campaA+-as por
   parte de polA(c)micos empresarios uruguayo-calabreses.
   Una empresa de servicios en la que su esposa es ejecutiva fue en 2009
   acusada de fraude por programas de limpieza en el hospital mA!s antiguo de
   Uruguay, del cual algunos directivos fueron apartados y procesados,
   atribuyA(c)ndose la filtraciA^3n del problema a la Justicia a dirigentes
   radicales de los Tupamaros, respondiendo a otro histA^3rico, de posturas
   extremas, Julio Marenales. Pese a estas vicisitudes, el nuevo ministro -un
   empedernido fumador que ya tuvo serios problemas de salud al respecto-
   continuA^3 de forma casi imperturbable su carrera polAtica, que hoy se
   encuentra ante su mayor desafAo, de acuerdo a las palabras del primer
   mandatario, quien expresA^3 que Defensa es la cartera mA!s dificil para
   cualquier gobierno de izquierda\" (Javier Bonilla, corresponsal de Grupo
   Edefa en Uruguay).

   Uruguay's new defense minister
   Monday July 18, 2011 09:01 -

   Eleuterio Fernandez Huidobro, until recently the senator since he resigned
   after feeling compelled against his will, to vote a virtual repeal of the
   amnesty law or the military amnesty for excesses committed during the
   dictatorship that ended in 1985, which was twice ratified by plebiscite,
   and historical tupamaro participant in various armed actions (including
   the absurd attempt to take the city of Pando, 1968), and the massive
   flight of the old prison and Punta Carretas mall today, was appointed
   Minister National Defense, replacing his colleague Luis Rosadilla
   resigned. He also participated in negotiations with the military toward a
   possible truce in the fighting between the terrorist group and the
   soldiers in 1972.

   Bank clerk, journalist poignant and so far management of the newspaper La
   RepA-oblica, is among the staunchest supporters of turning the page to the
   appellant and worn topic of continuing military prosecuting their actions
   during the old civil-military regime, which have both interest groups more
   radical wing of the ruling, as the extremist Party for People's Victory,
   as well as the orthodox Communist Party, strong position in the judiciary,
   cultural backgrounds and trade unionism. Fernandez is the most common and
   qualified partner with Lieutenants Artigas military lodge,
   ultra-nationalist, neo-Falangist, partly liberal and anti-Semitic,
   however, has some figures on stage moderate political and military, whose
   members boast of honesty and have considerable weight between the Armed
   Forces today.
   In the late nineties, the current president Mujica, held talks with
   uniforms from that source to seal issues of the past, which failed to
   specify a solution, although the means of dialogue continues. Recently,
   Fernandez Huidobro said the innocence of General Miguel Dalmao, Chief
   Officer Command currently active and processed without proof, because when
   I was a lieutenant in 1974 at the headquarters who was killed in dubious
   circumstances a careful, leader of banned area then Communist Party today
   decided to give his own peculiar legal battle with the past on several
   fronts beyond the opinion of the rest of officialdom. The new minister is
   one of the few vocational strategic issues and defense within the
   environment of the Government.
   As a journalist said his conviction about the importance of protecting and
   enhancing Uruguayan maritime sovereignty and improve the defense
   capability of the Air Force, as well as promoting alternative energy. In
   2007, along with other well-known figures such as former minister, Luis
   Rosadilla left the Popular Participation Movement, the political wing
   party within the Frente Amplio, mainly from the Tupamaros-to create a more
   moderate group, called the Power of Action and Thought, Freedom, which,
   however, he blames the presence of corrupt leaders (like former legislator
   Leonardo Nicolini, twice the cameras away from fraudulent attitude with
   Morocco and tried to insult the Polisario Front) or probable partial
   funding of their campaigns by Uruguayan-Calabrian controversial
   businessmen.
   A service company in which his wife is executive in 2009 was accused of
   fraud by cleanup programs in the oldest hospital in Uruguay, which some
   managers were removed and processed, the filtering problem attributed to
   Justice leaders radicals Tupamaros, responding to a historical, extremes,
   July Marenales. Despite these vicissitudes, the new minister, an
   inveterate smoker who already had serious health problems in this regard
   he continued in an almost imperturbable his political career, which now
   faces its greatest challenge, according to the words of the president, who
   Defense said that the portfolio is more difficult for any government left
   \"(Javier Bonilla correspondent EDEF Group in Uruguay).

   Presidente de ColonizaciA^3n pide mA!s recursos para evitar
   extranjerizaciA^3n
   AndrA(c)s Berterreche dijo a radio SarandA que a**cuanto mA!s pueda
   adquirir el Instituto Nacional de ColonizaciA^3n, mA!s desconcentrada y
   mA!s nacional va a ser esta tierraa**
   18.07.2011, 14:23 hs -
   http://www.elobservador.com.uy/noticia/205679/presidente-de-colonizacion-pide-mas-recursos-para-evitar-extranjerizacion/

   El presidente del Instituto Nacional de ColonizaciA^3n (INC), AndrA(c)s
   Berterreche, argumentA^3 que la mejor manera de evitar la
   extranjerizaciA^3n y concentraciA^3n de la tierra en Uruguay es una
   acciA^3n mA!s activa del INC. El jerarca dijo a radio SarandA 690 que el
   asunto requiere de una discusiA^3n pA-oblica.

   a**Es bueno que el gobierno marque la cancha y diga hacia dA^3nde vamos en
   este sentido. Creo que la tierra por suerte en este aA+-o va a tener una
   discusiA^3n pA-oblica muy importantea**, agregA^3.
    
   Este lunes el diario El PaAs informA^3 que un documento del Estado Mayor
   de la Defensa (Esmade) asegura que las consecuencias de la creciente
   adquisiciA^3n de tierras por parte de extranjeros es una a**pA(c)rdida de
   soberanAa y del control nacional sobre el territorio y los recursos
   naturalesa**.

   El anA!lisis del Esmade se basa en datos relevados por la fundaciA^3n
   argentina Pensar, que indican que Uruguay es el paAs con mayor porcentaje
   de tierras en manos de extranjeros en comparaciA^3n con sus vecinos
   regionales. El 25,6% es el dato que se maneja por Pensar para Uruguay,
   mientras que en Argentina la cifra es de 3,4% y en Brasil de 1,2%.

   Berterreche dijo desconocer ese documento y, por lo tanto, sus
   conclusiones. AdemA!s, indicA^3 que este fenA^3meno a**no es exclusivo de
   Uruguaya**.

   El jerarca sostuvo que a**la mejor acciA^3n que se puede tener para
   disminuir la concentraciA^3n y extranjerizaciA^3n es la acciA^3n del INC
   en el territorioa**. AgregA^3 que a**cuanto mA!s pueda adquirir el INC,
   mA!s desconcentrada y mA!s nacional va a ser esta tierraa**.

   Acerca de una normativa para frenar el proceso de extranjerizaciA^3n, dijo
   preferir el a**desestAmulo (para los compradores) y la acciA^3n positiva
   del INCa**, ya que a**solamente trancar no es la manera porque le van a
   buscar la forma de hacerle el bypass a la normativaa**.

   La acciA^3n positiva a la que hizo referencia significa a**darle recursos
   al INC (para que A(c)ste pueda) comprar tierras y dA!rselas a los
   aspirantes a colonos, que cada vez son mA!sa**.

   Colonization President calls for more resources to avoid foreign control
   Andrew told Radio Sarandi Berterreche that \"the more you can purchase the
   National Colonization Institute, more decentralized and more national
   going to be this earth\"

   The president of the National Colonization Institute (INC), AndrA(c)s
   Berterreche argued that the best way to avoid foreign ownership and
   concentration of land in Uruguay is a more active INC. The governor told
   Radio Sarandi 690 that the matter requires a public discussion.

   \"It's good that the government check the court and say where we are going
   in this direction. I think the earth luck this year will have a major
   public discussion, \"he said.
    
   On Monday the newspaper El Pais reported that a document of the General
   Staff of Defense (ESMAD) ensures that the consequences of the increasing
   acquisition of land by foreigners is a \"loss of sovereignty and national
   control over territory and natural resources \".

   ESMAD analysis is based on data collected by the foundation Argentina
   Thinking, indicating that Uruguay is the country with the highest
   percentage of land held by foreigners compared to its regional neighbors.
   25.6% is the data that is handled by Thought for Uruguay, while in
   Argentina the figure is 3.4% and 1.2% in Brazil.

   Berterreche said he was unaware that document and, therefore, its
   conclusions. He also indicated that this phenomenon \"is not unique to
   Uruguay.\"

   The governor said that \"the best action you can take to reduce the
   concentration and foreign ownership is the action of the INC in the
   territory.\" He added that \"the more you can purchase the INC, the more
   decentralized and more national will be this land.\"

   About legislation to stop the process of denationalization, said they
   preferred the \"disincentive (for buyers) and positive action by the INC,\"
   and that \"only lockout is not the way because you will find a way to make
   the bypass the rules. \"

   Positive action to which he referred meant \"to give resources to the INC
   (so that it can) buy land and give to aspiring settlers, who are
   increasingly\"

   PERU
   Humala cae 29 puntos antes de asumir la presidencia
   July 18, 2011

   http://internacional.eluniversal.com/2011/07/18/humala-cae-29-puntos-antes-de-asumir-la-presidencia.shtml

   Lima.- La popularidad del presidente electo Ollanta Humala en menos de un
   mes cayA^3 29 puntos, descenso atribuido a una polA(c)mica visita a Rusia
   de su hermano Alexis, segA-on una encuesta nacional publicada el domingo.

   De acuerdo con el sondeo realizado por la firma Ipsos-Apoyo y publicado
   por el diario El Comercio, la aprobaciA^3n a Humala descendiA^3 a 41%, de
   70% que registrA^3 en una encuesta de la misma firma el 19 de junio sobre
   la popularidad de Humala, que ganA^3 la presidencia el 5 de junio en la
   segunda ronda frente a Keiko Fujimori, informA^3 AP.

   SegA-on la nueva encuesta, el presidente electo recibiA^3 una aprobaciA^3n
   de 41% y una desaprobaciA^3n del 31% de los consultados. No precisa, 28%.

   El director de Ipsos Apoyo, Alfredo Torres, dijo a El Comercio que \"el
   escA!ndalo suscitado a raAz del viaje de Alexis Humala, el hermano del
   presidente electo, le ha costado a Humala la caAda de 29 puntos en su
   aprobaciA^3n\".

   La encuesta muestra que 82% desaprueba el viaje a MoscA-o de Alexis
   Humala, hermano menor del presidente electo, quien se reuniA^3 con
   funcionarios y empresarios rusos la primera semana de julio donde hablA^3
   de futuros convenios bilaterales.

   El hermano de Humala -un empresario que estudiA^3 en Rusia- se reuniA^3
   con el canciller ruso Sergey Lavrov, con autoridades del sector pesca y
   funcionarios de la gigante gasAfera Gazprom y de la fabricante de armas
   Rosoboronexport.

   Un 77% cree que el hermano de Ollanta Humala \"fue a Rusia en beneficio
   personal\", mientras solo 10% considera que su viaje fue \"en beneficio del
   paAs\". Un 13% no precisa.

   Las reuniones del hermano en Rusia \"como enviado especial del presidente
   electo\" se convirtieron en noticia en PerA-o luego sendos comunicados de
   la cancillerAa rusa y la firma Gazprom en sus respectivos sitios de
   internet.

   Tras los sucesos, el izquierdista presidente electo sostuvo que desconocAa
   del viaje de su hermano y que nunca le dio la autoridad para que lo
   represente en MoscA-o. No obstante, 60% cree que Humala \"sabAa del viaje\"
   de Alexis.

   Gana PerA-o, el partido polAtico de Humala, suspendiA^3 al hermano Humala
   de sus derechos partidarios mientras dure la investigaciA^3n por el viaje
   a Rusia.

   El viaje a MoscA-o se ha tornando en una piedra en el zapato para Humala e
   incluso opacA^3 su retorno de una importante gira por Estados Unidos donde
   se reuniA^3 con el presidente Barack Obama.

   La derecha y un mayoritario sector de la prensa han pedido un
   pronunciamiento de Humala sobre el viaje del hermano.

   Humala iniciarA! su gobierno el 28 de julio de 2011 como sucesor del
   presidente Alan GarcAa, de quien es opositor.

   Alejandro Toledo: El camino al 2016 comienza ya
   July 18, 2011

   http://www.larepublica.pe/18-07-2011/alejandro-toledo-el-camino-al-2016-comienza-ya

   Ex mandatario viajarA! por todo el PerA-o para reestructurar partido
   PerA-o Posible. El miA(c)rcoles se reA-one con presidente electo Ollanta
   Humala para definir la participaciA^3n de PerA-o Posible en el primer
   gabinete.

   Durante su visita al Cusco para recibir la distinciA^3n de Hijo Ilustre
   del distrito de Machu Picchu, el ex presidente Alejandro Toledo anunciA^3
   el inicio de una gira por todo el PerA-o para reestructurar el partido
   PerA-o Posible, de cara a las prA^3ximas elecciones presidenciales del
   2016. De manera eufA^3rica, indicA^3 que a**el camino al 2016 comienza
   yaa**.

   Toledo aclarA^3 que su candidatura no estaba decidida para las prA^3ximas
   elecciones presidenciales, pero seA+-alA^3 que su principal labor serA!
   evitar que se vuelvan a construir a**murallasa** entre A(c)l y las bases
   del partido PerA-o Posible.

   a**He decidido postergar mis compromisos internacionales para quedarme en
   el PerA-o y recorrerlo a lo largo y ancho para reestructurar mi partido.
   Vamos a fortalecerlo, modernizarlo y dar oportunidades a los jA^3venes. Me
   han puesto una trampa para que no vuelva a gobernar el PerA-o, y serAa
   fA!cil para mA decir buenas noches los pastores, nos vemos en cinco
   aA+-os, pero no lo voy a hacera**, anotA^3.

   Sobre un posible enfrentamiento electoral el aA+-o 2016 con Alan GarcAa, a
   quien culpA^3 de su derrota en las pasadas justas presidenciales, Toledo
   seA+-alA^3: a**No veo la competencia como una revancha, pero si tenemos
   que volverle a ganar como lo hicimos el 2001, lo volveremos a hacera**.

   Respecto a la participaciA^3n de PerA-o Posible con algunos ministros en
   el primer gabinete de Ollanta Humala, el ex presidente advirtiA^3 que
   aA-on falta una conversaciA^3n con el lAder de Gana PerA-o. AclarA^3 que
   la decisiA^3n final serA! tomada por el presidente electo.

   a**Nuestro apoyo no fue interesado, el dAa 20 (miA(c)rcoles), cuando el
   presidente regrese de su gira internacional, vamos a encontrarnos para
   redefinir si PerA-o Posible tomarA! la decisiA^3n de participar en el
   gabinete, pero en todo caso habrA! apoyo en tres A!reas. Si decidimos
   apoyar en el Ejecutivo, habrA! un apoyo polAtico y habrA! un apoyo en el
   Congreso de la RepA-oblicaa**, detallA^3.

   Por otro lado, Alejandro Toledo volviA^3 a culpar al presidente Alan
   GarcAa por una a**confabulaciA^3n maquiavA(c)licaa** para sacarlo de
   carrera y favorecer a Keiko Fujimori.

   Claves

   AcompaA+-ado. Durante su estancia en Cusco, el ex presidente Alejandro
   Toledo en todo momento estuvo acompaA+-ado por su esposa Eliane Karp y se
   mostrA^3 confiado en la recuperaciA^3n del crecimiento econA^3mico de
   nuestro paAs.

   Nombres. a**Apenas se clarifiquen los nombres del nuevo gabinete el
   prA^3ximo 28 de julio, el panorama debe ser mA!s claro; solo espero que
   GarcAa no deje bombas de tiempoa**, dijo.

   Presidente electo: PerA-o tiene que construir su camino y no copiarA!
   otros modelos
   July 18, 2011

   http://www.andina.com.pe/Espanol/Noticia.aspx?id=402N4hrF7lY=

   El presidente electo, Ollanta Humala, seA+-alA^3 que el PerA-o tiene que
   construir su propio modelo de desarrollo y no copiarA! a otros de la
   regiA^3n, no obstante, dijo que se deben respetar las diferencias
   ideolA^3gicas o de polAticas econA^3micas de otros paAses.

   a**El PerA-o tiene que construir un camino propio, no podemos estar
   copiando ni a Venezuela, Estados Unidos ni a Chilea**, subrayA^3.

   Sostuvo que con otros paAses de la regiA^3n puede haber diferencias de
   carA!cter ideolA^3gico o de modelo econA^3mico, pero que a**hay que
   respetara**, y el error estA! en tratar de que todos los paAses vecinos
   piensen y actA-oen como nosotros.

   a**AhA perdemos tiempo, tenemos que ser pragmA!ticosa**, agregA^3.

   En ese sentido, indicA^3 que los nuevos adversarios comunes tanto de
   Veneuela, Bolivia, Chile, y el PerA-o, los a**verdaderos enemigos de
   LatinoamA(c)ricaa**,  son la desigualdad, el narcotrA!fico, la pobreza, la
   desnutriciA^3n, la violencia.

   RefiriA^3 que la gira que emprendiA^3 por todos los paAses de AmA(c)rica
   del Sur  tuvo la intenciA^3n de fortalecer las relaciones internacionales,
   y un logro ha sido la convocatoria a que la prA^3xima reuniA^3n de la
   UniA^3n de Naciones Suramericanas (Unasur) sea el 28 de julio en Lima.

   a**AdemA!s hemos logrado lAneas de crA(c)dito de organismos multilaterales
   como la CAF por 7 mil 500 millones de dA^3lares, el BID y tambiA(c)n estA!
   pendiente una conversaciA^3n con el Banco Mundiala**, dijo en el programa
   Cuarto Poder.

   Asimismo, destacA^3 su visita a los Estados Unidos como un viaje
   importante, por la deferencia del presidente Barack Obama, de recibirlo en
   la Casa Blanca, porque no es parte del protocolo de dicho paAs recibir a
   mandatarios electos.

   RefiriA^3 que la a**excepciA^3na** que realizA^3 Barack Obama con su
   persona, fue porque el PerA-o es un paAs importante por la coyuntura que
   se vive en la regiA^3n.

   a**Estados Unidos no tiene relaciones diplomA!ticas con varios paAses de
   la regiA^3n, con los cuales el nuevo gobierno (de PerA-o) tiene unas
   relaciones muy buenas, como es el caso de Venezuela, Ecuador y Boliviaa**,
   subrayA^3.

   SeA+-alA^3 que Estados Unidos estA! poniendo atenciA^3n nuevamente a la
   regiA^3n latinoamericana, al ser una regiA^3n que ha venido consolidando
   un crecimiento econA^3mico desde hace mA!s de ocho aA+-os.

   El electo mandatario recordA^3 que la conversaciA^3n que sostuvo con
   Barack Obama fue bastante abierta, transparente, y el presidente
   estadounidense le manifestA^3 su deseo en algA-on momento de visitar
   LatinoamA(c)rica, y tambiA(c)n lo invitA^3 a la prA^3xima reuniA^3n del
   Foro de CooperaciA^3n EconA^3mica Asia PacAfico (APEC) en Hawai.

   Peruvian Stocks Surge as Humala Says Hea**ll Keep Velarde Atop Central
   Bank
   Jul 18, 2011 -
   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-18/peruvian-stocks-surge-after-humala-says-central-bank-president-to-stay.html

   Perua**s benchmark stock index surged after President-elect Ollanta Humala
   said Central Bank President Julio Velarde will remain in his post,
   signaling that policies that spurred the regiona**s fastest economic
   growth in the last decade will continue.

   The Lima General Index rose 4.5 percent to 21,262.30 at 2:21 p.m. New York
   time, the biggest one-day gain since June 7. It was the biggest gainer
   among 91 equity indexes tracked by Bloomberg. The gauge was led by zinc
   exploration company Rio Cristal Resources Corp. and Caterpillar Inc.
   distributor Ferreyros SA. (FERREYC1) Velarde will serve another five-year
   term to help ensure economic stability, Humala said yesterday.

   a**Velardea**s appointment is a very good signal,a** said Sebastian
   Blondet, a trader at Celfin Capital SAB. a**The markets were waiting for a
   sign that Humala will maintain macroeconomic policies and a stable
   currency.a**

   Humala, who takes office July 28, is seeking to reassure investors
   concerned that his plans to raise mining royalties may slow private
   investment. Since being appointed in 2006 to head the central bank,
   Velarde, 59, has helped triple international reserves to a record $47
   billion and raised lending rates to a two-year high in May to curb
   inflation, which has been the lowest in the region since 2006.

   Peruvian bonds and the currency also gained. The sol increased 0.1 percent
   to 2.7380 per U.S. dollar, from 2.74 on July 15.

   The yield on the nationa**s benchmark 7.84 percent sol- denominated bond
   due August 2020 fell two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 6.28
   percent, according to prices compiled by Bloomberg. The bonda**s price
   rose 0.14 centimo to 110.71 centimos per sol.
   Yield Spread

   The extra yield investors demand to hold Peruvian bonds instead of
   Treasuries, or spread, narrowed to 1.73 percentage points today, according
   to JPMorgan Chase & Co.a**s benchmark emerging-market index.

   A surge in gold, the countrya**s second-biggest export earner after
   copper, also helped fuel the advance today. Fifteen of the 34 stocks in
   the index are mining shares, including five gold miners.

   Humala said in a July 17 television interview hea**ll seek to spur
   investment in the Andean nationa**s mining and gas industries and pledged
   to announce ministerial posts on July 20.

   Velarde introduced measures including raising reserve requirements for
   bank deposits to rein in lending. He increased the operating limit on
   pension fund managersa** investments overseas four times last year to help
   cool demand for the local currency.

   Perua**s economy expanded 7.1 percent in May, the slowest pace in more
   than a year, as companies slowed spending on concern Humalaa**s policies
   may deter foreign investment.

   a**This is very positive news from a market perspective,a** Credit Suisse
   AG economist Carola Sandy said today in an e- mailed report. a**It signals
   that monetary policy will remain independent.a**

   El director general de Hidrocarburos del Ministerio de EnergAa y Minas
   anunciA^3 el hallazgo de un nuevo yacimiento en la selva central
   18 de julio de 2011 -
   http://elcomercio.pe/economia/887459/noticia-peru-tiene-reservas-gas-natural-proximos-50-anos

   (Andina). El Ministerio de EnergAa y Minas (MEM) estimA^3 hoy que en la
   actualidad, el PerA-o tiene reservas de gas natural para los prA^3ximos 40
   a 50 aA+-os.

   a**Pero no me sorprenderAa que en cinco a seis aA+-os se pueda disponer de
   40 a 50 trillones de pies cA-obicos (TCF) porque todavAa hay zonas que no
   se han tocadoa**, seA+-alA^3 el director general de Hidrocarburos del MEM,
   JosA(c) Robles.

   Al mismo tiempo, anunciA^3 que se ha descubierto un nuevo yacimiento de
   gas en la selva central, el cual es diferente a los demA!s, aunque dijo
   que la tecnologAa ya permite conocer la manera de producir el gas en estos
   casos.

   MencionA^3 que las reservas probadas de gas natural que tiene el PerA-o en
   la actualidad son del orden de 12,5 TCF, aunque a**en realidad se tiene
   mA!s gas del que se conocea**.

   RefiriA^3 que en la capacidad de procesamiento de gas natural en la planta
   de Malvinas se estA! incrementando y desde el prA^3ximo aA+-o estarA! en
   capacidad de procesar casi 1.600 millones de pies cA-obicos al dAa
   (MMPCD).

   ABASTECIMIENTO DE GAS EN LIMA
   Por otro lado, Robles detallA^3 que en la actualidad se cuenta con 50.000
   conexiones de gas natural a los hogares de Lima, lo que significa que se
   ha sobrepasado las 25.000 que estaban previstas inicialmente.

   a**Se requiere, en promedio, 20.000 pies cA-obicos diarios por consumidor
   y no habrA! ningA-on problema para abastecerlos porque hay gas suficiente
   en el paAsa**, asegurA^3.

   SUR CHICO CON GAS DESDE EL 2013
   En tanto, el funcionario resaltA^3 el permanente esfuerzo que ha venido
   desplegando el gobierno, a travA(c)s del MEM, para llevar los beneficios
   del gas natural a toda la poblaciA^3n peruana

   a**Chincha, Pisco, Ica y San Juan de Marcona van a contar con gas natural
   a partir del 2013a**, anunciA^3 al seA+-alar que los trabajos del
   gasoducto para esta zona, estA!n avanzados.

   Sobre el Gasoducto Andino del Sur de Kuntur, que costarA! 1.334 millones
   de dA^3lares, Robles indicA^3 que A(c)ste va a recorrer toda la regiA^3n
   Cusco, pasando cerca de Puno, Juliaca y Arequipa para terminar en Ilo.

   Asimismo, destacA^3 la contribuciA^3n que ofrecen los ductos virtuales que
   llevan el gas natural en camiones, los cuales podrAan beneficiar a
   localidades fuera de Lima Metropolitana como Chancay y Huacho.

   a**En el norte, Piura y Chiclayo disponen igualmente del gas natural
   producido en Talara, gracias a los ductos virtuales. En tanto en Arequipa,
   la municipalidad ha decidido tambiA(c)n llevar el gas desde Lima para una
   lAnea de A^3mnibusa**, aA+-adiA^3.

   The Director General of Hydrocarbons of the Ministry of Energy and Mines
   announced the discovery of a new field in the central jungle

   (Andina). The Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) said today that at
   present, Peru has reserves of natural gas for the next 40 to 50 years.

   \"But I would not be surprised if in five to six years may have 40 to 50
   trillion cubic feet (TCF) because there are still areas that have not been
   touched,\" said the director general of Hydrocarbons of the MEM, Jose
   Robles.

   At the same time announced that it has discovered a new gas field in the
   central jungle, which is different to others, but said the technology
   already allows the method to produce the gas in these cases.

   He mentioned that the proven reserves of natural gas that Peru has now are
   of the order of 12.5 TCF, but \"actually has more gas than is known.\"

   He said that the ability of natural gas processing plant in Malvinas is
   increasing, and from next year will be able to process about 1,600 cubic
   feet per day (MMSCFD).

   SUPPLY OF GAS IN LIMA
   On the other hand, Robles explained that at present has 50,000 natural gas
   connections to households in Lima, which means that it has surpassed the
   25,000 who were initially planned.

   \"It takes, on average, 20,000 cubic feet per day per customer and there is
   no problem to supply them because there is enough gas in the country,\" he
   said.

   SOUTH CHICO GAS FROM 2013
   Meanwhile, the official pointed out the ongoing effort that has been
   making the government, through the MEM, to bring the benefits of natural
   gas to all Peruvians

   \"Chincha, Pisco, Ica and San Juan de Marcona are going to have natural gas
   in 2013,\" said noting that the work of the pipeline for this area are
   advanced.

   On the South Andean Pipeline Kuntur, which will cost 1,334 million
   dollars, Robles said he will go all the Cusco region, passing near Puno,
   Arequipa and Juliaca to finish in Ilo.

   He highlighted the contribution offered by the virtual pipeline carrying
   natural gas trucks, which could benefit locations outside of metropolitan
   Lima and Chancay and Huacho.

   \"In the north, Piura and Chiclayo also have the natural gas produced in
   Talara, thanks to virtual products. While in Arequipa, the city has also
   decided to take gas from Lima to a bus line, \"he added.

   MA(c)xico espera abrir con PerA-o nueva etapa en relaciA^3n bilateral,
   afirma presidente CalderA^3n
   http://www.andina.com.pe/Espanol/Noticia.aspx?id=BHFTtbvnsQw=

   Ciudad de MA(c)xico, jul. 18 (ANDINA). El presidente de MA(c)xico, Felipe
   CalderA^3n, anunciA^3 una nueva etapa en la relaciA^3n con el PerA-o y
   dijo que trabajarA! en forma conjunta y constructiva, junto al mandatario
   electo Ollanta Humala, polAticas que permitan abrir mA!s caminos para el
   progreso.
   a**Es un hecho que el presidente electo Ollanta Humala y este servidor
   vamos a trabajar con espAritu de colaboraciA^3n y de amistad, que vamos a
   unir esfuerzos a fin de abrir paso a una nueva etapa de la relaciA^3n
   bilaterala**, seA+-alA^3 en una declaraciA^3n pA-oblica conjunta con
   Humala Tasso. 
   RemarcA^3 que, en esa nueva etapa a**constructivaa**, la prioridad de
   ambos gobiernos serA! mejorar las condiciones de vida de peruanos y
   mexicanos, y abrir mA!s caminos para la libertad, la democracia, y el
   progreso. 
   SubrayA^3 que para MA(c)xico es muy importante consolidar la alianza
   econA^3mica que mantiene con el PerA-o, a fin de lograr que ambos paAses
   fortalezcan sus economAas, generando crecimiento y empleo para sus
   poblaciones. 
   En ese sentido, dijo esperar que el Congreso de MA(c)xico ratifique el
   acuerdo comercial negociado con PerA-o, en los A-oltimos aA+-os. 
   a**MA(c)xico y PerA-o hemos negociado un acuerdo de integraciA^3n
   comercial que comprende preferencias comerciales para mA!s de 12 mil
   productos, A(c)sta negociaciA^3n que durA^3 5 aA+-os ahora estA! a
   consideraciA^3n del Congreso mexicano y esperamos que muy pronto pueda ser
   ratificado para que podamos aprovechar plenamente las oportunidades mutuas
   de comercio e inversiA^3na**, afirmA^3. 
   a**Al Senado invoco a que valoren en toda su dimensiA^3n la importancia de
   que MA(c)xico ensanche su alianza con PerA-o. Un pueblo que ha salido
   adelante con enorme esfuerzo y que tiene ahora una de las economAas mas
   destacadas de la regiA^3na**, agregA^3.
   Asimismo, invitA^3 al presidente electo a unir esfuerzos para lograr la
   meta de una AmA(c)rica Latina mA!s fuerte y prA^3spera, a travA(c)s de
   alianzas estratA(c)gicas con paAses afines. 
   a**MA(c)xico y PerA-o tienen todo para constituir, con otras naciones de
   AmA(c)rica Latina, una de las alianzas econA^3micas mA!s importantes,
   competitivas y de mayor crecimientoa**, acotA^3. 
   CalderA^3n recibiA^3 hoy al presidente electo Ollanta Humala, con quien
   sostuvo una reuniA^3n en la sede gubernamental azteca.
   Mexico with Peru expected to open new chapter in bilateral relations, says
   CalderA^3n

   Mexico City, July. 18 (ANDINA). Mexico's President Felipe Calderon
   announced a new stage in relations with Peru and said he would work
   jointly and constructively with the president-elect Ollanta Humala
   policies to open up more avenues for progress.
   \"The fact that President-elect Ollanta Humala and myself are going to work
   in a spirit of cooperation and friendship, let's join hands to make way
   for a new stage of bilateral relations\", said in a joint public statement
   with Humala Tasso.
   He stressed that in this new phase \"constructive\", the priority of both
   governments to improve the conditions of life of Peruvians and Mexicans,
   and open more avenues for freedom, democracy and progress.
   He stressed that Mexico is very important to strengthen the economic
   partnership it has with Peru, to ensure that both countries strengthen
   their economies, generating growth and employment for their populations.
   In this regard, said he expected Mexico's Congress to ratify the
   negotiated trade agreement with Peru in recent years.
   \"Mexico and Peru have negotiated a trade integration agreement that
   includes trade preferences for over 12 thousand products, this negotiation
   that lasted 5 years is now considered by the Mexican Congress and we hope
   soon to be ratified so that we can fully exploit the opportunities mutual
   trade and investment, \"he said.
   \"The Senate invoke to assess the full extent of the importance of Mexico
   to broaden their alliance with Peru. A people has come out with great
   effort and now has one of most outstanding economies of the region, \"he
   said.
   He also invited the president-elect to join efforts to achieve the goal of
   an America stronger and more prosperous America, through strategic
   alliances with like-minded countries.
   \"Mexico and Peru have everything to be with other nations in Latin
   America, one of the most important economic alliances, competitive and
   fastest growing,\" he said.
   Calderon was elected president today Ollanta Humala, who held a government
   meeting at the Aztec.
","2011-07-18 23:13:25",1,"2012-03-13 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/92424_-latam-pup-brief-110718-.html","allison.fedirka@stratfor.com","mailto:latam@stratfor.com","rbaker@stratfor.com,latam@stratfor.com",""
92666,"Re: Will be visiting Zaman office today
","   Dear Hamit,
   It was delightful to meet you today. Thank you again for taking the time
   and for being so open. I learned a lot from our meeting, and it is my hope
   that we can continue a cooperative dialogue. Will be in touch soon.
   All the best,
   Reva
   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Abdulhamit Bilici\" <A.Bilici@cihan.com.tr>
   To: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, March 8, 2010 4:53:15 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: Will be visiting Zaman office today

   Dear Reva Bhalla,
   If it is ok for you, we can chat together. 
   best regards
   hamit
    
   On 08.Mar.2010, at 12:34, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     Dear Mr. Bilici,
     I will be meeting your colleague from Today's Zaman, Bulent Kenes, today
     at your main office at 3pm. If you are available any time after that, I
     would love to meet you while I am there.
     Best,
     Reva Bhalla
     Director of Analysis
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Analyst for Middle East, South Asia and Latin America
     +1 (512) 699-8385 (mobile)
     On Mar 6, 2010, at 11:30 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

       Dear Mr. Bilici,
       I met your colleague, Ali Aslan, last week in DC, where I am based as
       an analyst for STRATFOR. I told him that I'll be in Istanbul this week
       and he strongly recommended that I get in touch with you. If you are
       available some time early in the week (Monday, the 8th, perhaps?) to
       meet, please let me know. I've been working on Turkey issues for a
       while and your publication does very important work. It would be great
       to sit down and chat with you if you have some time.
       All the best,
       Reva Bhalla
       Director of Analysis
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Analyst for Middle East, South Asia and Latin America
       +1 (512) 699-8385

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   YASAL UYARI: Bu e-posta'nA:+-n iAS:erdiA:*i bilgiler (ekleri de dahil
   olmak A 1/4zere) gizlidir. Cihan Haber AjansA:+-'nA:+-n onayA:+-
   olmaksA:+-zA:+-n iAS:eriA:*i kopyalanamaz, A 1/4AS:A 1/4ncA 1/4 kiAA*ilere
   aAS:A:+-klanamaz veya iletilemez . Bu mesajA:+-n gAP:nderilmek istendiA:*i
   kiAA*i deA:*ilseniz (ya da bu e-postaa**yA:+- yanlA:+-AA*lA:+-kla
   aldA:+-ysanA:+-z), lA 1/4tfen yollayan kiAA*iyi haberdar ediniz ve
   mesajA:+- sisteminizden derhal siliniz. Cihan Haber AjansA:+-, bu
   mesajA:+-n iAS:erdiA:*i bilgilerin doA:*ruluA:*u veya eksiksiz olduA:*u
   konusunda bir garanti vermemektedir. Bu nedenle, bilgilerin ne AA*ekilde
   olursa olsun iAS:eriA:*inden, iletilmesinden, alA:+-nmasA:+-ndan,
   saklanmasA:+-ndan Cihan Haber AjansA:+- sorumlu deA:*ildir. Bu mesajA:+-n
   iAS:eriA:*i yazarA:+-na ait olup, Cihan Haber AjansA:+- 'nA:+-n gAP:rA
   1/4AA*lerini iAS:ermeyebilir. Bu e-posta bizce bilinen tA 1/4m bilgisayar
   virA 1/4slerine karsA:+- taranmA:+-AA*tA:+-r.

   DISCLAIMER: This e-mail (including any attachments) may contain
   confidential and/or privileged information. Copying, disclosure or
   distribution of the material in this e-mail without our Cihan News
   Agencya**s authority is strictly forbidden. If you are not the intended
   recipient (or have received this e-mail in error), please notify the
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   no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information
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","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-03-03 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/92666_re-will-be-visiting-zaman-office-today-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","","A.Bilici@cihan.com.tr",""
93359,"Re: Statfor
","   David, thanks so much for the introduction and for a lovely dinner last
   night.
   Mr. Tukel, I would love to meet with you if you have some time this week.
   As David mentioned, I've been talking to politicians, businessmen,
   journalists, etc from across the political spectrum. I'm positive I could
   learn a great deal from you.
   Please let me know if you are available to meet Thurs evening or Friday
   morning/early afternoon.
   Look forward to your reply,
   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   STRATFOR
   + 1 (512) 699-8385 (mobile)
   Sent from my iPhone
   On Mar 10, 2010, at 11:01 AM, David Judson <david.judson@tdn.com.tr>
   wrote:

     Haluk:

      

     This will introduce you to Reva Bhalla, the director of analysis for
     Stratfor, the private intelligence company you may have heard of. She is
     based in Washington and is here this week, mostly meeting with Zaman
     folks and others who might offer insight into the GA 1/4len movement. I
     should emphasize, however, she is well aware of the realities. She has
     not yet been converted.

      

     Over dinner last night, we discussed many things, including various
     elements of the Dogan tax. I mentioned your work at TUSIAD, setting up
     the bureaus in DC, Brussels, Berlin and Beijing. She is in Ankara today,
     but will be back tomorrow and is in town through the weekend.

      

     If there is an opportunity for the two of you to share a cup of coffee,
     I think this would be a great idea. As I mentioned, Reva, Haluk now
     heads the communication arm of Dogan Holding.

      

     Best

      

      

     David Judson

     Genel YayA:+-n YAP:netmeni / Editor-In-Chief

     HA 1/4rriyet Daily News & Economic Review

     (+90) 212 677 0195

      

      
","2010-03-10 11:02:54",1,"2012-03-10 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/93359_re-statfor-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","","htukel@tusiad.org,david.judson@tdn.com.tr",""
96051,"Re: Arrived...
","   ok, great. i'll see you at Cities -  919 19th street - at 1800. ciao ciao

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: srkip@canvasopedia.org
   To: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, July 27, 2011 3:54:52 PM
   Subject: Re: Arrived...

   I am up to start my last meeting here in NSC at 1700 and will go to meet
   you as soon as it finishes. Just let me know where will you be around
   1800, and can't wait to se you!
   Hugs
   Srdja

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2011 15:08:02 -0500 (CDT)
   To: <srkip@canvasopedia.org>
   Subject: Re: Arrived...
   I just finished with my meetings for the day and am camping out a coffee
   shop near 18th and K.  we can go to this restaurant called Cities at 919
   19th street around the corner so that way we're not stuck in traffic. va
   bene?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: srkip@canvasopedia.org
   To: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, July 26, 2011 9:45:51 PM
   Subject: Re: Arrived...

   I will be around white house at that time as all of tourist and trouble
   makers but I can grab a cab and come wherever you suggest.
   S
   ------Original Message------
   From: Reva Bhalla
   To: Srdja Popovic
   Subject: Re: Arrived...
   Sent: Jul 25, 2011 6:56 PM

   Sounds good. I'll think of a place

   Sent from my iPhone

   On Jul 26, 2011, at 6:45 PM, srkip@canvasopedia.org wrote:

   > Yes, but already overwehelmed for tonite, but glad to meet you tommorow
   after I meet politicians, let's say 1800, downtown?
   > ------Original Message------
   > From: Reva Bhalla
   > To: Srdja Popovic
   > Subject: Re: Arrived...
   > Sent: Jul 25, 2011 6:15 PM
   >
   > I just arrived as well ... Back to dc insanity. Will you be downtown?
   >
   > Sent from my iPhone
   >
   > On Jul 26, 2011, at 5:07 PM, srkip@canvasopedia.org wrote:
   >
   >> ..And jumped intop meetings already. Let's try to catch tommorow let's
   say between 18 and 19 if this works for you. Can't wait to see you!
   >> Srdja
   >> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
   >
   >
   > Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-06-18 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/96051_re-arrived-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","","srkip@canvasopedia.org",""
97282,"Re: George, look at this: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Davutoglu-IK spat andother issues
","   This is really good stuff. I'd like to meet the head of seta in dc to talk
   visegrad when I'm up on the 12th and around that. . Could you make sure
   that he gets my piece. Also is there any comments on tusiad? Kalin fight
   is that d believes kalin was maneuvering for his spot which he was.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2011 20:40:52 -0500 (CDT)
   To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
   Subject: George, look at this: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Davutoglu-IK spat and
   other issues
   thought you might be interested in the bit about the spat between Ibrahim
   Kalin and Davutoglu

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"watchofficer\" <watchofficer@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, July 26, 2011 4:19:46 PM
   Subject: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Davutoglu-IK spat and other issues

   PUBLICATION: background
   ATTRIBUTION: n/a
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Nuh Yilmaz, transitioning from head of SETA (main AKP
   think tank) in DC
   Reliability : B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   I stopped by SETA's office this afternoon to visit with the director and
   wish him well before he returns to Turkey next week. Nuh is very close to
   Davutoglu and is his student (practically worships him,) and is looking
   out for his political future. He's leaving the SETA DC office to return to
   Istanbul where he'll be the main liaison for Al Jazeera Turkish, which is
   starting soon. As Emre brought up in an earlier discussion, AKP is nervous
   about having al Jazeera operate in Turkey. Nuh expressed in so many words
   that he'll be keeping a close eye on them. At the same time he's heading
   up a new istanbul-focused branch for SETA to have more global reach - will
   be spending a lot more effort in Europe and Central Asia to start off and
   they want to learn from stratfor on how to do real analysis.

   Interesting story - Ibrahim Kalin, Erdogan's chief advisor, gave an
   interview to Haaretz last week in which he gave a softer stance on AKP's
   demands on israel for the flotilla apology.  This is the link -
   http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/turkey-set-on-fully-mending-ties-with-israel-says-erdogan-s-aide-1.374331. 
   I personally dont see Kalin as detracting that far at all from the
   official policy, but apparently this caused a shit storm in Ankara between
   Kalin and Davutoglu, who claimed that Kalin went off the reservation.
   Kalin claimed he was taken out of context by the Haaretz reporter. Nuh
   claims the issue is settled now and was visibly nervous that he mentioned
   it. The spat is interesting though in terms of keeping track of AKP's
   power players.

   I met the new DC SETA director, who is a quiet man, doesn't let on much,
   but always nods with a very knowing smile.  He's older, seems a lot more
   experienced. Don't have a full read on him yet, but plan to meet with him
   one-on-one. When I met him, i was in their map room with Nuh explaining
   the development of Visegrad analysis and where Turkey potentially would
   fit in that. The new director was extremely interested in our analysis of
   the issue.

   There seems to be strong interest by AKP to get the military up to speed
   and modernized. They feel ridiculous that iran is sailing its navy all
   over the place and their own military has been out of the game for so
   long. When we were talking about US needing to lean on Turkey more in the
   region, and how it's in the US interest to help Turkey modernize its
   military, he seemed hopeful, but still untrusting ... i keep getting the
   impression from any Turks i interact with that they're still skeptical if
   the US will get along with them. Turkey keeps blaming US for pushing them
   on Libya, Syria, etc. (pretty lame excuse, if you ask me.) This will take
   time to develop.

   Nuh expressed how Turkey is increasingly coming to terms with hard power.
   They are still being cautious though. That's what Davutoglu's trip to Iran
   was about. Things were becoming very tense between Turkey and Iran over
   Syria and Davutoglu reached an understanding with the Iranian regime.
   Since then, they've backed off the syrians more.  I mentioned to him how
   the Saudis don't seem too impressed with Turkish influenc ein the region
   so far and in playing a balancing role against Iran. he laughed and said
   'i can't stand the Saudis. At least the Persians are smart.' He said that
   the Saudis policies in Syria and Lebanon were not helpful. they turn
   everything sectarian and exacerbate issues with Iran. He expressed a view
   that a lot of Turks will express, about how Turkey has a more
   sophisticated way of doing things while the Saudis are barbarians in
   dealing with this kind of stuff.
","2011-07-27 03:55:23",1,"2012-03-07 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/97282_re-george-look-at-this-insight-turkey-davutoglu-ik-spat.html","friedman@att.blackberry.net","","bhalla@stratfor.com",""
97882,"Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
","   I think you should make responsiveness a separate category. Like we do
   with our red, orange, yellow classifications during source list reviews.
   That is responsiveness/accessibility, and it is distinct from
   reliability. 
   From: Jennifer Richmond <richmond@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2011 15:05:28 -0500
   To: <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
   As Stick said earlier, you can have a reliable source that is highly
   responsive that sometimes sends crap.  Item credibility is the place where
   you assess the information, and this changes from insight to insight. 
   Reliability is more about source responsiveness.  That said, and as Stick
   notes, reliability also speaks to the overall source's access to
   information as well as dependability.  In part some of this should also be
   addressed in the source description.

   We'll be fleshing these out a bit more in the next few weeks, and all
   suggestions are welcomed.

   On 7/29/11 2:51 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     My understanding of source reliability has always been the contact's
     personal reliability as a person who can provide accurate information.
     On 7/29/11 2:54 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       Sending to the list since these are good questions.  My responses in
       red.

       On 7/29/11 1:48 PM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

         I have 2 questions on this item.
         SOURCE RELIABILITY: A-F, A being the best and F being the worst.
          this
         grades the turnaround time of this source in responding to requests

         1) If this is based solely on turn around time, do we have company
         standards for the letters.  Like A = a couple of hours, D = a couple
         of weeks, etc?  We do need to better identify what each letter
         means.  In the meantime, in my book A=within 24 hours, B=48 hours,
         C=a couple of days, D=over a week, F=lucky if we get a response
         2) Also I previously thought this item reflected both reliability in
         turn around time and also reliability to give good information.  So
         like if someone was obviously anti-chavez or exaggerates a lot, I
         would bump them down a bit since the insight should be taken with a
         grain of salt.  How do you want us to inform others of potential
         bias or questionable material?  In the description section? It is
         mainly addresses their reliability to respond.  ITEM CREDIBILITY is
         the place where we code the information.  In most cases this changes
         from insight to insight whereas SOURCE RELIABILITY is a little more
         static.  Some sources know nothing about politics but give excellent
         info on econ.  So, credibilty changes frequently even with the same
         source and one of the reasons why we need to keep up with the entire
         ID tags when sending in insight.  As to the last question, I usually
         make a note of their bias for a particular insight in the
         credibility section.  In the description section you can write out
         their personal biases - e.g. the dude only hangs with the wealthy so
         this insight is likely to be skewed towards elite perceptions, or
         something like that. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Jennifer Richmond\" <richmond@stratfor.com>
         To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
         Sent: Friday, July 29, 2011 1:41:39 PM
         Subject: [alpha] sourcing insight

         We've gotten lazy on insight source IDs again.  Not only do you need
         to
         put the source code in the subject line, but all of these categories
         need to be filled out for every single insight sent to the list.

         SOURCE: code
         ATTRIBUTION: this is what we should say if we use this info in a
         publication, e.g. STRATFOR source/source in the medical
         industry/source
         on the ground, etc
         SOURCE DESCRIPTION: this is where we put the more concrete details
         of
         the source for our internal consumption so we can better understand
         the
         source's background and ability to make the assessments in the
         insight
         PUBLICATION: Yes or no.  If you put yes it doesn't mean that we will
         publish it, but only that we can publish it.
         SOURCE RELIABILITY: A-F, A being the best and F being the worst.
          this
         grades the turnaround time of this source in responding to requests
         ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1-10, 1 being the best and 10 being the worst (we
         may
         change the range here in the future).  this changes a lot based on
         the
         info provided.  1 is \"you can take this to the bank\" and 10 would be
         an
         example of maybe - \"this is a totally ridiculous rumor but something
         that is spreading on the ground\"
         SPECIAL HANDLING: often this is \"none\" but it may be something like,
         \"if
         you use this we need to be sure not to mention the part about XXX in
         the
         publication\" or any other special notes
         SOURCE HANDLER: the person who can take follow-up questions and
         communicate with the source

         If you have any questions, concerns or suggestions, let me know.
          I'll
         be back in the office next Tues so if you want to discuss this
         process
         in person we can do so soon.  In the meantime, remember that every
         piece
         of insight needs this ENTIRE ID unless it is just something that you
         picked up off the ground from a source that you will likely not hear
         from again.  Even then, you should fill out the entire ID and in the
         SOURCE field simply say - n/a with a description on why we are not
         coding them.

         Jen
         PS: Also remember that is something is highly sensitive to send
         directly
         - not thru a WO - to the \"secure\" list.  Secure list insights still
         need
         the above ID tags.

         --
         Jennifer Richmond
         STRATFOR
         China Director
         Director of International Projects
         (512) 422-9335
         richmond@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.comwww.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.comwww.stratfor.com
","2011-07-29 22:08:01",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/97882_re-alpha-sourcing-insight-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
97900,"Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
","   Ok, good question.

   The secure list is not supposed to have anyone overseas on it.  (And as a
   side note, if you are traveling overseas you need to get yourself off this
   list while out of the country.)  We have many WOs overseas and so when we
   send something to secure it is just one more way we are trying to protect
   sourcing by not having it sent over international wires (yes, of course,
   there are many ways that foreigners can access any insight sent from
   anywhere at anytime, but it is somewhat more secure when we email only
   within CONUS).  So either a source or insight that is highly sensitive
   needs to go to the secure list only, and that means that we send it in
   ourselves because the overseas WOs won't be able to pick it up.

   Alpha goes to analysts/writers (and the few others selected on this list)
   and not ADPs or Interns, including to analysts/writers overseas.

   On 7/29/11 1:50 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

     your last line in the P.S.... said to send things directly to secure...
     I wanted to know if that meant only to secure or to alpha too.
     I think there is still some confusion over which list is which.
     On 7/29/11 1:47 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       I don't understand your question.  This applies to both lists.  All
       sources need IDs (as mentioned in my PS - does that answer your
       question?).

       As to the question of sending from BBs, I definitely understand that
       issue.  When you return to your computer, please reply to the insight
       sent out with the full coding.  We need this info to really track
       insight and any changes over time.

       On 7/29/11 1:45 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

         secure or alpha?

         On 7/29/11 1:41 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

 We've gotten lazy on insight source IDs again.  Not only do you need to
 put the source code in the subject line, but all of these categories
 need to be filled out for every single insight sent to the list.

 SOURCE: code
 ATTRIBUTION: this is what we should say if we use this info in a
 publication, e.g. STRATFOR source/source in the medical industry/source
 on the ground, etc
 SOURCE DESCRIPTION: this is where we put the more concrete details of
 the source for our internal consumption so we can better understand the
 source's background and ability to make the assessments in the insight
 PUBLICATION: Yes or no.  If you put yes it doesn't mean that we will
 publish it, but only that we can publish it.
 SOURCE RELIABILITY: A-F, A being the best and F being the worst.  this
 grades the turnaround time of this source in responding to requests
 ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1-10, 1 being the best and 10 being the worst (we may
 change the range here in the future).  this changes a lot based on the
 info provided.  1 is \"you can take this to the bank\" and 10 would be an
 example of maybe - \"this is a totally ridiculous rumor but something
 that is spreading on the ground\"
 SPECIAL HANDLING: often this is \"none\" but it may be something like, \"if
 you use this we need to be sure not to mention the part about XXX in the
 publication\" or any other special notes
 SOURCE HANDLER: the person who can take follow-up questions and
 communicate with the source

 If you have any questions, concerns or suggestions, let me know.  I'll
 be back in the office next Tues so if you want to discuss this process
 in person we can do so soon.  In the meantime, remember that every piece
 of insight needs this ENTIRE ID unless it is just something that you
 picked up off the ground from a source that you will likely not hear
 from again.  Even then, you should fill out the entire ID and in the
 SOURCE field simply say - n/a with a description on why we are not
 coding them.

 Jen
 PS: Also remember that is something is highly sensitive to send directly
 - not thru a WO - to the \"secure\" list.  Secure list insights still need
 the above ID tags.


         --
         Lauren Goodrich
         Senior Eurasia Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: 512.744.4311
         F: 512.744.4334
         lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com


     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     STRATFOR
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-07-29 20:59:54",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/97900_re-alpha-sourcing-insight-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
98475,"Re: INSIGHT - Turkey - More on Gulen movement
","   another example of your loyalty is tested in the recruitment process is
   when they decision comes for your university placement. THey will often
   test you to see if you will place the movement before your family. For
   example, you may have your whole family in Istanbul, but they will tell
   you to go to Ankara university. WHen you are away from home, the Gulenists
   will provide housing and take care of you. It allows them to strengthen
   their control over you and earn your loyalty by separating the target from
   the family.
   On Mar 21, 2010, at 8:35 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     PUBLICATION: for Turkey series
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  former Gulenist
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  B
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
     SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:  analysts
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
     Source was a hardcore Gulenist for 10 years and then defected from the
     movement when he came to the US several years back. He was recruited
     when he was a high school student and was raised in the movement to
     focus on military penetration.Since he knows a great deal about the
     Gulen and sensitive military matters, the movement has been careful not
     to alienate him. They have people who check up on him (similar to how I
     now have people checking up on me) and they have a mutually dependent
     relationship where they use each other for information They want to be
     careful that he doesn't write any big criticism against them. The source
     wants to tell the inside story of Gulen but it's too risky for him. He's
     quite paranoid when I talk to him, but now that he's 'liberated' from
     the movement, he drinks wine and can loosen up after a while.
     (as a side note, in DC there are a couple Turkish restaurants that are
     well known, Levante's and Diwan. Levante's, I learned today, is owned by
     Kurds. My waiter was also from Diyarbakir. What i found that was
     interesting, and something I've noticed for a while, is that Turkish
     govt officials will not come to Levante's usually because it's well
     known that it's owned by Kurds. Just another example of polarization)
     Fethullah Gulen is not as active as he used to be in the movement. He
     gets sick more frequently (he has diabetes). They now have a council of
     elders, 12 'wise men'. Most of them are in the US, close to Fethullah.
     They meet regularly and make decisions on the big issues affecting the
     movement.
     The Gulenist model is obviously very successful. Even US diplomats are
     gradually becoming more influenced. They say the Kemalist model has been
     unsuccessful in bringing Turkey closer to the West, but the Gulen
     through their business and diplomatic efforts have been successful.
     The source has also tried like us to acquire a database of the Gulenist
     schools. They give him the exact same answer they give us -- that the
     education effort isn't centralized and so they don't have a good
     database. Source agrees that that is total BS.The schools are central to
     the movement's efforts. They keep this list close hold.
     The source described for me how the Gulenist recruitment process works.
     In Turkey, preparing for your university exam is a huge deal (Emre has
     explained this to me in a lot of detail). You essentially have to sign
     away a couple years of your life to study for this. The Gulen schools
     are known to provide the best preparation, offer the best resources,
     etc. A lot of students will attend them, regardless of their
     political/religious affiliation. Yout start out going a couple times a
     week, then 3 times a week, then every day of the week by the time you're
     done. They make it a gradual process and earn your trust. The movement
     will then take the brightest students from the class and will focus on
     them. THe mentor for each student will change every year. They'll test
     your loyalty by calling you late in the evening, early on a Saturday
     morning, etc. and ask you to attend something or perform some task. The
     task doesn't really matter at the beginning. What they want to see is if
     you'll obey them and respond to their beck and call. This is all a
     process to test their loyalty. Then, when they get the results for their
     university exams, they'll place the top students in the military
     academy. From there, they position themselves to influence the
     institution. Source estimates that roughly 30% of the military may be
     influence/linked to Gulen currently.  They are trained from a very early
     age how to interact with military personnel, learn the ranks, act
     secular, etc. The source was involved in this process. When they are
     assimilating in the military, they drink, go out with girls, etc., all
     while remaining loyal to the movement.  Once you are placed in a
     strategic institution, whether it be the military, police judiciary,
     media firm, etc., you will be handled by what's the equivalent of a case
     officer. They are trained on how to communicate with their handlers in
     secret and receive order. Again, this is run very much like a
     professional intelligence organization.
     In the police force, the Gulenists have a lot more room to maneuver. All
     of these efforts kicked of in the early 1980s, but in the 1990s is when
     Gulen really gained traction. In the police, they're not as strict as
     the military when it comes to background checks. So, for example, it
     won't matter much if you go to mosque, have a wife who wears the
     headscarf, etc. The Gulenists are extremely strong in the police and
      may by now control a majority of the force by the source's estimate.
     As far as funding, for years, the Gulenists were very non-transparent.
     He described how each city in Turkey is responsible for certain
     countries. So, the Gulen in Ankara for example, are in charge of
     Azerbaijan, Turkemnistan, etc. The businessmen in that Turkish city are
     then responsible for funding initiatives in those countries. There were
     literally suitcases of cash being transferred to these countries, but
     later, through organizations like Tuskon, they've legitimized the
     process a lot more. 
","2010-03-22 02:38:54",1,"2012-03-16 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/98475_re-insight-turkey-more-on-gulen-movement-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
98795,"[alpha] INSIGHT - PNG - New PM - via CN65
","   *I think they probably meant to type 07/31 but will double check with
   source.

   SOURCE: via CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

     Png has a new PM Peter O'Neil, opposition will form new gov 77/31
      

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
","2011-08-02 13:42:21",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/98795_-alpha-insight-png-new-pm-via-cn65-.html","ben.preisler@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
98966,"Re: Info - Another MOSSAD Intelligence Operation  ** internal useonly - pls do not forward **
","   Nocs who are simply given a business cover are easy to spot. The
   develop$emt of a noc that is effective depends on developing a cover that
   can't be penetrated because it is who the person is. This takes many years
   and infinite patience. The current practice merely increases the risk to
   the agent without doing anything for effectiveness. Being a noc is not
   about bureaucratic classification or superficial identity is a way of
   life. Very few people have the appetite or psychological motivation for
   the effective abandonment of their own personalities and few handlers can
   stand the stress of managing deep cover.

   Most american companies are suspecred of housing cia agents as we are. So
   that's no cover at all. Having someone become an executive of a foreign
   comppany and be a foreign national is what is essential. This requires the
   use of first generation immigrants as the chinese do and as the the united
   states does intermittently. The problem is that the security people set
   standards that people can't possinly meet. Some dci waive these standards
   and some tighten them.

   When they are tightened you get mormons working for american accounting
   firms trying to do intelligence in beijing. The trick is for the us to
   employ first or second generation chinese at an early early age, craft the
   needed cover meticulously, and have them live in china, speaking native
   chinese, marrying chinese spouses and growting that way. It requires the
   fbi to hire hundreds of first generation chinerse to meet and double
   chinese operatives.

   This is certainly some the united states has done intermittently in the
   past, but never the fbi. The same applies to all nationalities.

   The greatest advantage the unitied states has in the intelligence was is
   its immigrant population. That's where you develop nocs. During oss days
   these were the ones who were the effectives, not the yale pipe smokers.

   If you want to be a spy it helps not to look like one. The american noc
   working in tashkent for say hewlett packard can be spotted immediately by
   the russian counter intelligence guy planted in hp. The russian is an
   american citizen, immigrant and a graduate of wharton with an american
   wife and kids. He sits at his desk does great work and watches. The
   american noc went to byu, and spends less time on the job than an
   ambitious employee should. He is also the guy who spends his time in the
   bar chatting up junior host government employees instead of the girls. He
   sticks out like a sore thumb and figured out in a few weeks.

   Slipping a noc into a foreign country is hard. You start with a native and
   then work like crazy. Everything else is pseudo intelligence.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 25 Mar 2010 17:35:35 -0500
   To: Fred Burton<burton@stratfor.com>
   Cc: 'Secure List'<secure@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: Info - Another MOSSAD Intelligence Operation ** internal use
   only - pls do not forward **
   Well, new NCS employees are primarily NOCs now.  They gotta have some sort
   of business cover, even if they are all fake businesses (I have no idea
   bout the latteR).

   Fred Burton wrote:

     Chinese are a given, the Americans are way too concerned about getting
     caught. 
      
     The CIA can only infiltrate an American company with witting knowledge
     of the American company. 
      
     Usually the CEO and Corporate Legal counsel are the only ones who
     know.   For the most part, the CIA gets the bums rush when they ask
     Fortune 50's. 
      
     Times are different in America.  We are no longer a patriotic nation. 
     Shareholders rule.  SEC rules.  DOJ concerns.  etc. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Sean Noonan [mailto:sean.noonan@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Thursday, March 25, 2010 5:30 PM
     To: Fred Burton
     Cc: 'Secure List'
     Subject: Re: Info - Another MOSSAD Intelligence Operation ** internal
     use only - pls do not forward **
     And why wouldn't the Chinese (especially) or Americans doing this too?

     Fred Burton wrote:

       Business intelligence. 
        
       There is a MOSSAD operative under business cover stealing other
       companies secrets from this group. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Sean Noonan [mailto:sean.noonan@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Thursday, March 25, 2010 5:27 PM
       To: Fred Burton
       Cc: 'Secure List'
       Subject: Re: Info - Another MOSSAD Intelligence Operation ** internal
       use only - pls do not forward **
       I'll look into this a little more, but I would find it hard to believe
       that a number of other agencies haven't also infiltrated it. 

       Fred Burton wrote:

         http://www.scip.org/
          
         According to the FBI (not for attribution) the MOSSAD has
         infiltrated this organziation.   
          

                                   About SCIP

         The Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals (SCIP) is a
         global nonprofit membership organization for everyone involved in
         creating and managing business knowledge. Our mission is to enhance
         the success of our members through leadership, education, advocacy,
         and networking.

         Specifically, SCIP provides education and networking opportunities
         for business professionals working in the rapidly growing field of
         competitive intelligence (the legal and ethical collection and
         analysis of information regarding the capabilities, vulnerabilities,
         and intentions of business competitors). Many SCIP members have
         backgrounds in market research, strategic analysis, or science and
         technology.

         Established in 1986, today SCIP has chapters around the world, with
         individual members in nations around the globe. In addition, SCIP
         has alliance partnerships with independent affiliate organizations
         in many countries.

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-03-26 01:06:18",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/98966_re-info-another-mossad-intelligence-operation-internal.html","friedman@att.blackberry.net","","burton@stratfor.com,sean.noonan@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
99602,"Re: George, look at this: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Davutoglu-IK spat
 andother issues
","   Yes, I'm going to make sure that you both meet. It would also be good if
   we could send them invitations to attend the event.  Do you think Tusiad
   will give us some invitations to distribute to people there?  I'd also
   like people like the Brazilian ambo to Turkey (who you met last time and
   who I met in Turkey,) Faruk and others to get an invite

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
   To: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, July 26, 2011 8:55:23 PM
   Subject: Re: George, look at this: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Davutoglu-IK spat
   andother issues

   This is really good stuff. I'd like to meet the head of seta in dc to talk
   visegrad when I'm up on the 12th and around that. . Could you make sure
   that he gets my piece. Also is there any comments on tusiad? Kalin fight
   is that d believes kalin was maneuvering for his spot which he was.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2011 20:40:52 -0500 (CDT)
   To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
   Subject: George, look at this: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Davutoglu-IK spat and
   other issues
   thought you might be interested in the bit about the spat between Ibrahim
   Kalin and Davutoglu

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"watchofficer\" <watchofficer@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, July 26, 2011 4:19:46 PM
   Subject: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Davutoglu-IK spat and other issues

   PUBLICATION: background
   ATTRIBUTION: n/a
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Nuh Yilmaz, transitioning from head of SETA (main AKP
   think tank) in DC
   Reliability : B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   I stopped by SETA's office this afternoon to visit with the director and
   wish him well before he returns to Turkey next week. Nuh is very close to
   Davutoglu and is his student (practically worships him,) and is looking
   out for his political future. He's leaving the SETA DC office to return to
   Istanbul where he'll be the main liaison for Al Jazeera Turkish, which is
   starting soon. As Emre brought up in an earlier discussion, AKP is nervous
   about having al Jazeera operate in Turkey. Nuh expressed in so many words
   that he'll be keeping a close eye on them. At the same time he's heading
   up a new istanbul-focused branch for SETA to have more global reach - will
   be spending a lot more effort in Europe and Central Asia to start off and
   they want to learn from stratfor on how to do real analysis.

   Interesting story - Ibrahim Kalin, Erdogan's chief advisor, gave an
   interview to Haaretz last week in which he gave a softer stance on AKP's
   demands on israel for the flotilla apology.  This is the link -
   http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/turkey-set-on-fully-mending-ties-with-israel-says-erdogan-s-aide-1.374331. 
   I personally dont see Kalin as detracting that far at all from the
   official policy, but apparently this caused a shit storm in Ankara between
   Kalin and Davutoglu, who claimed that Kalin went off the reservation.
   Kalin claimed he was taken out of context by the Haaretz reporter. Nuh
   claims the issue is settled now and was visibly nervous that he mentioned
   it. The spat is interesting though in terms of keeping track of AKP's
   power players.

   I met the new DC SETA director, who is a quiet man, doesn't let on much,
   but always nods with a very knowing smile.  He's older, seems a lot more
   experienced. Don't have a full read on him yet, but plan to meet with him
   one-on-one. When I met him, i was in their map room with Nuh explaining
   the development of Visegrad analysis and where Turkey potentially would
   fit in that. The new director was extremely interested in our analysis of
   the issue.

   There seems to be strong interest by AKP to get the military up to speed
   and modernized. They feel ridiculous that iran is sailing its navy all
   over the place and their own military has been out of the game for so
   long. When we were talking about US needing to lean on Turkey more in the
   region, and how it's in the US interest to help Turkey modernize its
   military, he seemed hopeful, but still untrusting ... i keep getting the
   impression from any Turks i interact with that they're still skeptical if
   the US will get along with them. Turkey keeps blaming US for pushing them
   on Libya, Syria, etc. (pretty lame excuse, if you ask me.) This will take
   time to develop.

   Nuh expressed how Turkey is increasingly coming to terms with hard power.
   They are still being cautious though. That's what Davutoglu's trip to Iran
   was about. Things were becoming very tense between Turkey and Iran over
   Syria and Davutoglu reached an understanding with the Iranian regime.
   Since then, they've backed off the syrians more.  I mentioned to him how
   the Saudis don't seem too impressed with Turkish influenc ein the region
   so far and in playing a balancing role against Iran. he laughed and said
   'i can't stand the Saudis. At least the Persians are smart.' He said that
   the Saudis policies in Syria and Lebanon were not helpful. they turn
   everything sectarian and exacerbate issues with Iran. He expressed a view
   that a lot of Turks will express, about how Turkey has a more
   sophisticated way of doing things while the Saudis are barbarians in
   dealing with this kind of stuff.
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-03-07 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/99602_re-george-look-at-this-insight-turkey-davutoglu-ik-spat.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","","friedman@att.blackberry.net",""
100009,"RE: FOR COMMENT: A BAILOUT FOR SPAIN, BUT NOT TODAY
","    

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Robin Blackburn
   Sent: Wednesday, August 03, 2011 11:53 AM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: FOR COMMENT: A BAILOUT FOR SPAIN, BUT NOT TODAY

    

   Spain's Economy: Madrid Will Need a Bailout, But Not Today

    

   Teaser:

   The bond markets are punishing Spain unjustifiably, but the country's need
   for a bailout is not imminent.

    

   Summary:

   Borrowing costs for the Spanish government have skyrocketed in recent
   weeks. But while Spain's economy is no longer the paragon of growth it was
   in the 2000s, there is no reason to expect that a bailout is needed -- at
   least not immediately.

    

   Analysis:

    

   Spain's cost of borrowing has risen to levels not seen since the advent of
   the euro in 1999, sparking speculation that another European bailout is
   imminent. STRATFOR disagrees. While Spain will need a bailout from the
   European Union eventually, there is nothing occurring in the Spanish
   economy that justifies the current increase in the cost of borrowing. In
   fact, by most measures the Spaniards have instituted more draconian
   austerity measures than even the Greeks -- who are already on their second
   bailout.

    

   Driven in part by demographics, Spain experienced extraordinarily  robust
   economic growth during the last decade [stronger growth in late 80s and
   mid to late 90s, would say last few decades since that's  both when the
   demographic trend you highlight began to hit, and when the real gdp growth
   rates look strong.]. One of the largest sources of economic activity in a
   modern economy comes from private consumption, and the largest proportion
   of private consumption in any economy comes from people in their 20s and
   30s. These are the first-time homebuyers, car buyers and child rearers.
   Older workers buy things, too, and raise children, but not in the sudden
   volume that young workers do. In the 2000s Spain had a glut of people in
   that age group.

    

   Also in the 2000s, Spain enjoyed the cheap credit made possible by the
   eurozone. Mortgage and interest rates fell by a factor of three. A massive
   consuming demographic had access to historically low credit costs. The
   resulting growth was unprecedented in modern Spanish history [see above.
   Spain was growing at a real 5% clip in the late 80s. it was under 4% for
   all of the 2000s].

    

   However, two problems are beginning to surface. First, any time the costs
   of financing are cut by that much, credit is not always used as wisely as
   it could be [weakly worded. Would rephrase: \"cheap credit, especially when
   financing costs decline quickly, tends to breed malinvestment.\" As a
   counterexample to your phrasing: the US has had some of the cheapest
   credit on record but consumer credit stocks have declined.]. Cheap credit
   encouraged state spending as well as private consumption, and so Spain has
   relatively high debt in both the public and private sectors. Spain's
   public sector national debt is about 60 percent of gross domestic product,
   about half of which has been financed by parties outside of Spain. [this
   whole para is weakly structured. First we allude to malinvestment, then we
   address debt stock without talking about its structure, vaguely asserting
   that 60 pc of gdp is high (it isn't). then to complicate further we bring
   up external debt, but provide no explanation as to why that's a problem.
   Would rewrite entirely. What we need here is a brief mention and a link on
   how the private sector leveraged up to invest in construction/housing.]

    

   Second, Spain's demographic profile is not what it was 10 years ago [yeah
   but all it did was shift from mid-20s to late 40s to late-20s to
   early-50s. that is still a really positive looking profile. Very
   productive and mostly pre-retirement.]. The bulk of the population is no
   longer in its 20s and 30s, and the current and upcoming spending
   generation is about half the size of the population cohort they are
   replacing. Consumption and economic growth in the next decade cannot hope
   to compete with the consumption and growth of the past decade. [so the
   only real problem you point out really IS  the same as it was 10 years
   ago. Anyway a simple rewrite can fix this.]

    

    

   The combination of relatively high debt and falling consumption rates
   means the era of strong Spanish growth is over. A very aggressive budget
   control effort might get the debt under control before the last bursts of
   the 30-somethings' spending fades, but that would be unlikely. Barring
   that, the Spanish will need a bailout to fix the imbalance. But that is an
   issue for a time at least two years in the future -- not today. [time
   frame issue. Main driver of the problem cited here is demographic,
   something that will look virtually the same in  2 years]

    

    

    

    

    

    
","2011-08-03 19:30:24",1,"2012-04-01 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/100009_re-for-comment-a-bailout-for-spain-but-not-today-.html","kevin.stech@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
100230,"[alpha] INSIGHT - PNG - Update - CN65
","    **If we care at all about writing on the PNG, this is unique insight that
   will be difficult to get elsewhere.  If we have a legit angle to write I
   would definitely do so and use this soon before it becomes common
   knowledge.

   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources (also working with the PNG government on development
   projects)
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   After a day and a half with my PNG chums, who were down for the Oxford
   dinner at the Sydney Opera House, I can now give you a summary of what
   happened in PNG.
   The then acting-PM, Sam Abal, and Foreign Minister, Don Polye, are both
   Engans (i.e. from Enga, a region in the Highlands).  Engans are
   notoriously fractious types.  Abal and Polye had a falling out, and it
   ripped apart the government.
   Everyone in the government got fed up with this, and it led to huge
   dissatisfaction.  On top of that, Abal moved to shift Peter O'Neill from
   the Treasury portfolio.  That was the catalyst for action.
   The other thing is that Somare has been absent from Parliament in
   Singapore getting medical treatment for more than 90 days.  They never got
   leave from Parliament, however, and this theoretically makes the PM's
   position vacant.
   A group of about four or five from the political class, led by one of our
   business associates (won't say who) helped put the numbers together for a
   change of government.  He aid the concern was to not just get a majority,
   but a thumping majority so the government would be able to move forward
   with confidence.
   The cabinet is being put together by the weekend.  The three candidates
   for Treasurer are Sir Puka Temu, Bart Philemon, and Sir Mekere Morauta.
    Word is that it with be either Puka or Mekere.  Mekere would be
   fantastic.  He is a former PM, has gravitas, and is very smart.
   Abal is going to the High Court claiming the motion of no confidence was
   unconstitutional. It won't make much difference.  O'Neill has the numbers
   to run the motion again if there is any problem with the proceedings in
   Parliament.  He will out in the end.
   Next item of business will be sorting out the status of Sir Michael
   Somare.
   I think there will be much more stability until next year's election, even
   if the PM is no cleaner than his predecessor.  That is a step in the right
   direction up there.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com


 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
","2011-08-04 14:04:27",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/100230_-alpha-insight-png-update-cn65-.html","ben.preisler@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
101915,"[alpha] INSIGHT - RUSSIA/VENEZUELA - Kremlin's medical team
","   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: protect until Reva's source clears their side
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Moscow
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Prosecutor General Office

   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISSEMINATION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

    Putin's personal doctor is Viktor Rovnov. But he only deals with Putin's
   day-to-day health and only with Putin. Dr. Rovnov is not really lent out
   to others, if you know what I mean.

    

   But there is a whole team of doctors that serve the senior group in the
   Kremlin, Putin included.  They run the Kremlin Medical Service. It is an
   official part of the Kremlin. A few of them also work for other hospitals,
   but their first duty is to the Kremlin.

    

   The team is big, but the principal doctors include Sergei Mironov, Elmira
   Boichenko, Victor Borisov and Alexander Myasnikov. Each are the best
   doctors in the former Soviet sphere. As far as specialties both Dr.
   Borisov and Dr. Boichenko work with cancer and chemotherapy. Dr. Borisov
   deals with rare and radical treatment of cases that are pretty hopeless.
   But Dr. Boichenko has studied very modern treatments in the west. They are
   both very good.

    

   I have heard of Chavez's case. The Kremlin typically offers to help its
   friends in such situations. But I have not heard of Dr. Borisov or Dr.
   Boichenko leaving the country yet. So I would suspect that Chavez has not
   accepted yet.  

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
","2011-08-01 18:39:24",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/101915_-alpha-insight-russia-venezuela-kremlin-s-medical-team-.html","michael.wilson@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
102355,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN/US/SYRIA - Iran reaching out to US on
	post-Assad set-up? - ME1 and ME1386
","   What does the source think about the possibility of a palace coup that
   isn't accepted by the SNC, FSA, people in the street or some combination
   thereof? Also does source know what the Iranians think about such a
   scenario (assuming they have considered it)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 6:07:16 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN/US/SYRIA - Iran reaching out to US on
   post-Assad set-up? - ME1 and ME1386

   my bad, that should read HZ politburo

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Michael Wilson\" <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 10:00:59 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN/US/SYRIA - Iran reaching out to US on
   post-Assad set-up? - ME1 and ME1386

   You say HZ source but notes say member of Hamas politburo

   On 12/13/11 9:29 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Reva's note - this is extremely interesting, especially the bolded part
     below. DOes Iran really think it can convince the US to collaborate with
     them on regime change in SYria in such a way that will end up in Iran's
     favor? the whole point of the US focusing in on Syria is to contain Iran
     in the first place. This sounds like the Iranians are getting to be in
     an increasingly desperate position. Always be wary of source bias, but
     why would a HZ source want to spread info on the weakness of the Syrian
     regime and the lack of options for Iran?  I do believe the part about
     Iran preferring a palace coup over the Turkish strategy of building up
     an opposition via FSA.

     SOURCE: ME1 and ME1386
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1 and member of Hamas politburo
     PUBLICATION: Yes - worth a tactical analysis
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: B-C
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: B-C
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

     Marhaba Reva,
     I strongly believe that Asad's regime will fall in 2012. The
     conventional wisdom that Asad will survive, because both Iran and Israel
     view him with favor, is a thing of the past. The situation in Syria has
     reached the point of no return. It is true than nine months of
     demonstrations have not brought down the regime but, by the same token,
     regime brutality and heavy handedness have not quelled the uprising. If
     anything, the level of hostilities and army defections is on the rise.

     The breaking point will come when the military establishment realizes
     that Asad must go. There are signs that the military establishment is
     beginning to disintegrate. I talked to [ME1386] and he told me that
     Alawite officers and enlisted men are beginning to join the ranks of the
     FSA. This represents a major development. Alawite officers are divided
     since many of them are unhappy about the use of excessive force against
     Sunni protesters.  Alawite officers are aware that Asad is trying to
     find an asylum for himself and his family should his regime become
     unslavageable. This is upsetting many Alawites who are coming to realize
     that Asad will abandon them. If so, they reason that it would be
     suicidal to continue to win the wrath of the Sunnis. Walid al-Muallim
     offered to resign but Asad turned down his request. This is a clear
     indicator that many of Asad's men are realizing that they are putting a
     vain fight against the burgeoning uprising.

     The Iranians are weighing in the situation in Syria very carefully. One
     must read beyond the public statements of the Iranians, especially
     ayatollah Khamenei. Both Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have concluded that
     Asad's regime cannot be rescued. It is perfectly understood that the
     regime in Damascus will fall along lines similar to the Libyan model.
     There will have to be a coup in Damascus, be it a military or political
     one.

     One must not dismiss the pragmatism of Khamenei. Iran appears to be
     willing to use its influence in Syria to stage a coup, provided that it
     is able to ensure that the new leadership will continue to pursue
     excellent relations with Tehran. The Iranians have approached the
     Americans on this. In the past, Iran collaborated with the U.S. on the
     ouster of Saddam Hussein and Iran won big in Iraq. The Iranians would
     not mind working again on ousting Asad if they can secure good results
     in Syria. Syria's contiguity to Iraq allows Iran to play a direct role
     in the affairs of Damascus.

     The Iranians feel they need to act on Syria soon because the Turks have
     their own plans for Syria and are not coordinating with the Iranians. He
     says the Turks are moving slowly but systematically. Iran does not want
     to allow Turkey to take over Syria. Whereas the Turks are coordinating
     with the Brotherhood and the FSA, the Iranians prefer a palace coup in
     damascus in order to maintain their ties with Asad's successors. What is
     delaying action in Syria is the fact that the U.S. has not yet decided
     on the shape of the post-Asad political system. Nevertheless, he insists
     that Asad's regime will fall, although the future of Syria after the
     regime change remains nebulous.

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com

   --
   Nick Grinstead
   Regional Monitor
   STRATFOR
   Beirut, Lebanon
   +96171969463
","2011-12-13 17:09:09",1,"2012-03-06 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/102355_re-alpha-insight-iran-us-syria-iran-reaching-out-to-us-on.html","nick.grinstead@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
107472,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - PKK stance about Ocalan
","   the press release is revealing for the desperation in tone.  this is a
   very defensive statement claiming that it's all AKP's fault, Ocalan is
   stiill the only one who can issue orders, etc.

   Yerevan, the official story is helpful in understanding their position,
   but we need to get beyond the delivery of the press statements to more
   in-depth and personal conversations with these guys on what's stressing
   them out, like we talked about. that should be a lot more revealing.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Benjamin Preisler\" <ben.preisler@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, August 8, 2011 9:39:44 AM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - PKK stance about Ocalan

   CODE: ? 

   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Iraq
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  PKK spokesman in Qandil Mount
   PUBLICATION: IF USEFUL
   SOURCE RELIABILITY:A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Yerevan
   Ok, PKK answered to an email of mine I had sent on Thursday.  Reading this
   only tells that Ocalan is still in helm and PKK follows his instructions,
   even PKK tells Oclan that it has the power to correct
   any inadequacy experienced in the past by the PKK. I can tell that PKK
   feels apologetic for Oclan, if it has failed to follow his
   orders strictly.   have bolded some parts
   What you think?
   Haval yerewan,  this is what we have about the recent statement of our
   leader and our stance. best
   The Kurdish people's leader Abdullah Ocalan has told his lawyers on 27
   July 2011 that he has withdrawn himself from being an intermediary between
   the Turkish state and the PKK. This situation means that the Kurdish
   question and the solution of this question has acquired a new dimension. 
    

   Our leader is being kept under aggravated prison conditions for the past
   twelve years. He has never made these conditions an obstacle in the
   discussions for a resolution. On the contrary he took special care that he
   fulfilled the requirements of his role despite the aggravated conditions
   and restricted means. He made a huge effort to enable the solution of the
   question, to bring the parties together at a common ground, to create the
   grounds for democratic resolution and to make sure that the process
   developed in accordance with a plan. 

    

   The public is aware that our leader has declared various unilateral
   ceasefires since 1993. Undoubtedly these ceasefires were invaluable
   opportunities for the achievement of peace and solution of the question.
   However due to the conventional strict state policy of denial and
   annihilation all these golden opportunities were unfortunately wasted.
   Despite all these our leader was very careful that the guerilla forces
   were kept out of clashes so that the ceasefires continued to be valid
   during the term of the AKP's governance and peace efforts continued to
   flourish in the society. He tried to attract the complete attention,
   efforts and awareness of our movement, people and democratic public to the
   peaceful solution of the question. He not only found that it was essential
   to raise the awareness of the society to the solution of the question but
   also the state. 

    

   Instead of a positive approach to the meaningful and valuable efforts of
   our leader the  AKP government chose to implement quite the opposite
   policy. It considered our tendency to resolve the question as a weakness
   and a fault. Thus it not only aimed to isolate our leader from our
   movement and people it also aimed the surrender and elimination of our
   movement. The meeting between ErdoA:*an and Bush which is said to be a
   landmark is a result of these developments.

    

   The comprehensive air bombardments and Zap warfare later showed how
   dangerous the historical secret agreement made between ErdoA:*an and the
   President of the USA in Washington on 5 November 2007 was. This agreement
   aimed active intervention of  NATO and total elimination of our movement.
   Advanced technological power incomparable to any other time was used for
   air bombardment of the guerilla areas in order to inflict a severe-blow to
   our movement. On the other hand, policies of lynching, cultural and
   political genocide were imposed on the Kurdish people. Externally, under
   the leadership of the USA and NATO a unity of stance and attitude amongst
   the EU countries were achieved to implement the plan to besiege and crush
   our movement. 

    

   Our leader had prepared a road map in August 2009 which consisted of
   proposals for democratic solutions and aimed to advance the process from a
   no-solution situation to democratic solution situation. This road map was
   given by him to the Turkish state officials. However the Turkish state
   confiscated this road map which would have stimulated the discussions on
   resolving the question. It thus aimed to orientate the discussion on the
   resolution of the question within the framework of a project that targeted
   elimination and which was called a**national unity and solidaritya**. In
   addition military and political elimination was multi-directionally
   imposed. 

    

   Our movement responded the comprehensive attacks and operations of the
   Turkish state with its 1 June 2010 offensive. The 1 June offensive that
   continues for around two months re-strengthened the quest for a
   resolution. An example to this quest was that the Turkish state initiated
   direct dialogues in the form of an official delegation with our leader. 

    

   In response our leader made a call for a ceasefire to the parties in 2010
   and thus prepared the ground for the negotiation process to start with the
   state. Our movement declared a unilateral ceasefire on 13 August 2010 to
   give a chance to the development of a peaceful solution upon the
   commencement of dialogue between our leader an official delegation on
   behalf of the state. In order for the period of dialogue to evolve into
   the negotiation level our leader presented the official delegation of the
   state with three protocols in May of 2011. In accordance with the
   agreement reached with the delegation that represented the state the new
   government that took office after the 12 June elections should have put
   these protocols in action. The AKP government has not taken a single
   positive step in relation to these protocols.

    

   Our leader has clearly stated that in the event that Prime minister
   ErdoA:*an gives assurances and calls on him he can withdraw the guerilla
   forces out of the areas where clashes occur in one week and thus
   facilitate the question to be resolved. This is something that can not be
   decided by anyone else but by our leader. This would also have meant that
   if the state had displayed a decisive and strong-willed stance then the
   issue that had not been solved in the last thirty years would have been
   resolved in one historical step.

    

   The AKP government has shown how insistent it is on the familiar policies
   of denial and annihilation by not heeding to this invaluable opportunity
   and calls. In addition it has thus signalled that military and political
   operations shall increase in the near future.  In fact ever since the
   ceasefire of 13 August 2010 the military nor political operations of the
   state have not stopped. On the contrary operations against the political
   arena have increased immensely, tens of Kurdish women, children and youth
   have been killed and thousands of them detained and arrested. We have had
   more guerilla losses during this period of ceasefire then would normally
   be due to the military operations that have not stopped at all. Since
   March 51 guerillas have been martyred in these military operations by the
   Turkish state against the guerilla forces who had adopted a position of
   defence. The great losses the Turkish army incurred during the clashes
   that occurred in the rural areas of Silvan on 14 July was not an action
   that was pre-planned by our forces but as a result of a confrontation of
   the Turkish army's comprehensive and extensive operational forces in the
   area.

    

   The ErdoA:*an government has used the clashes that occurred during their
   military operation in Silvan as a pretext to declare that they have
   commenced a period of offensive with new strategy and tactics. Undoubtedly
   it is the AKP government who shall be responsible for all the negative
   developments and losses in the near future. ErdoA:*an has thus confessed
   through this declaration that it is the end of an era. This shall either
   mean that a painful and a violent period with high costs and severe
   consequences for our peoples shall commence or the gateway to a true
   democratic solution for the Kurdish question shall be opened whereby a
   brand new future for our peoples shall begin. 

    

   The aim of our leader in continuing the dialogue with the state was to
   initiate the resolution and peace process that our peoples deserve. It has
   thus been exposed that unilateral ceasefires and dialogues taken up under
   these conditions are not sufficient to generate the means necessary for a
   solution. The three protocols presented to the state and our movement by
   the Kurdish people's leader has not been responded by the state. Although
   our leader had previously given a certain meaning to the dialogues with
   the state the point we are at has led him to find both the state's and our
   movement's behaviour inadequate.  As a result he has declared it publicly
   that he has withdrawn himself to be an intermediary between the state and
   our movement. This stance has been taken up by our leader because an
   approach to advance the democratic constitutional process and to make
   headway in the democratic solution project has not been taken up. Serious
   and important conclusions should be deduced from this situation by the
   Turkish state and all concerned circles. This is also an important stance
   that should be seriously evaluated by our freedom movement and Kurdish
   people. As a result it is understandable that Kurdish and Turkish
   intellectuals as well as many circles, politicians and academics are
   discussing and evaluating this stance of our leader.

    

   Despite the fact that we are at the strongest position of our movement's
   history our inability to officially draw the state to the point of
   resolution and to come up with the necessary means of tools to resolve the
   question is a serious inadequacy. This is a matter for criticism and
   self-criticism especially in terms of not being able to fulfil our duties
   by not achieving a sufficient level of richness and performance in our
   struggle. 

    

   We have reached a level where it has become clear that if we do not have
   the opportunity to meet our leader directly and the Kurdish people's
   leader can not move freely in order to fulfil his duties then under these
   conditions it is not possible to develop the democratic solution. It is
   clear that as the movement and people we greatly value and lend meaning to
   the unique efforts of our leader. We have acted in great awareness and
   sensitivity despite the state's elimination policies and the conditions of
   imprisonment in Imrali so that these efforts would be responded to. We
   have yet again seen that the position adopted by us and our sensitivity
   were not enough to advance the process. 

    

   The solution to the Kurdish question which has been turned into a Gordian
   knot can only be resolved by talking to our leader Apo and to create
   conditions of health, security and freedom to move. The twelve years under
   the imprisonment conditions of ImralA:+- and especially the events of the
   last two years  have unarguably shown us that the question can not be
   resolved if our leader is not free. The mentality and policies that set
   the position of the Kurdish people's leader and PKK apart from the
   solution of the Kurdish question are ill-intentioned and dangerous
   approaches that have no desire to resolve the question.

    

   The state must clearly show that it has decided to abandon its policy to
   resolve the Kurdish question through violence, oppression and elimination
   and that from now on it is sincere in developing the democratic
   constitutional solution. The state therefore must generate the conditions
   where our leader shall be in a surrounding where his health, security and
   freedom to move can be secured. Our movement and our people shall not be
   convinced and satisfied by any other statement and development.

    

   The solution to the Kurdish question is more then ever demanding its
   resolution. The only person who has the power and role to attain its
   democratic solution is the Kurdish people's leader Abdullah Ocalan. This
   is a reality everyone knows and accepts. Therefore in order to speedily
   commence the negotiation process and to be able to soundly head the
   process Kurdish people's leader must be given the means. On these grounds
   we find it urgent and necessary that our leader has the means to move
   freely and the issues of health and security are resolved.

    

   All circles and personalities who are for the resolution of the question
   should see this reality and act more sensitively and courageously then
   ever before if they are to  contribute to this process being crowned with
   democratic solution and peace. Permanent peace can only be achieved like
   this. As the movement we have the necessary strength and decisiveness for
   a struggle that is ever more competent and with rich means in order to
   overcome the inadequacies experienced in the past, to attain a solution to
   the Kurdish question and to achieve our leader's freedom. Denial and
   annihilation policies indexed to violence were the fundamental policy of
   the Republic of Turkey when it came to Kurdish question. These policies
   have now failed. However the AKP is putting these policies back on the
   agenda through different tools. It is thus clear that our movement's great
   experiences together with a richer and more competent struggle shall lead
   to a magnificent resistance that will render this new offensive fruitless.
   It is quite clear that our people and movement have the strength to defend
   itself in the face of these violent policies and thus to carry the
   struggle to more advanced levels. This reality must be seen and the path
   to the resolution lies not in re-adopting policies of violence but lies in
   the state taking the calls made by our leader on 27 June into
   consideration. This is the only path to the profound solution of the
   question. As a result the initial and the most important step for a
   solution is to create the necessary conditions for our leader to play his
   role. Our struggle shall have its focus on such an axis and shall
   fundamentally target the creation of the health and security conditions of
   our leader as well as his freedom to move and thus to develop a solution
   to the question.

    

   It is quite important that our people and democratic and patriotic
   institutions focus on this axis and advance the struggle of the new
   period. It is clear that we shall evaluate all conditions with great care
   so that our great offensive attains an ultimate outcome, all our strength
   shall be channelled to our struggle so that our great historical march
   shall be successful and that we shall implement a manner of struggle that
   shall ascertain success. Through such a belief and decisiveness we shall
   take up the duties of the new period and shall attain peace and freedom. 

    

   The Presidency of the Executive Council  of the KCK  

   06 August 2011

   --
   Yerevan Saeed
   STRATFOR
   Phone: 009647701574587
   IRAQ

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
","2011-08-08 18:24:57",1,"2012-03-06 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/107472_re-alpha-insight-pkk-stance-about-ocalan-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
107541,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Concerns over military dissent,
 PdVSA reshuffling rumors - VZ301
","   am also following up with the source on who within the upper military
   ranks is asking Chavez to step donw

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Korena Zucha\" <zucha@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, August 15, 2011 9:46:15 AM
   Subject: Re: Fwd: [alpha] INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Concerns over military
   dissent, PdVSA reshuffling rumors - VZ301

   got it, thanks.

   On 8/15/11 9:45 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     wanted to make sure you saw this

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Benjamin Preisler\" <ben.preisler@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Monday, August 15, 2011 9:20:53 AM
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Concerns over military dissent,
     PdVSA reshuffling rumors - VZ301

     SOURCE: VZ301
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: well-connected source in Caracas
     PUBLICATION: Yes - these are responses to a client question
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
     SPECIAL HANDLING: send to Alpha and Korena Zucha
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

     Q tal?  Any news on the Ramirez/Maduro PdVSA rumors we were chatting
     about earlier? 

     (referring to rumors that PdVSA president Rafael Ramirez will soon be
     replaced by FM Nicolas Maduro)

      

     I was checking up last night.  It is something that has been discussed
     and was a**filtereda** by a credible source.

      

     However, it is not something that is going to happen right now.  The
     issue is that el presidente is very aware of the fact that RR has been
     lying to him.

      

      

     client question-

     Hey there are a bunch of noises coming from the military and chavez this
     week about military loyalty and subversion by the oppositions of the
     military under the Imperial Direction (guess who).

      

     This stuff is important and getting a lot of press in the papers.

      

     First, a**dona**t trust statementsa**.

      

     I should add that in our specific situation things are not pure black or
     pure white.  We have a lot of a**nuancesa**.  Military are not a solid
     block like Chavism is not a solid and homogeneus block either.

     Within the military, you have the ones that have very much benefited by
     the Presidente (former companions of promotion or coup da**A(c)tat
     pals).

     High ranks that have enjoyed the economic benefits of this
     administration tend to be really concerned. 

     A.     They need to enjoy their fortunes here, where else can they go to
     make so much money?  So, they can either:

     A.     Try to scare the opposition, what they are doing through
     statements and threats.

     A.     They can negotiate a*| what some of them are already doing.

      

     Another group within the Army Forces are those that have expressed
     discomfort by the presence and power of Cubans within the military
     establishment.

      

     You have as well the military sector that favors right and not left
     political approaches.

      

      

     Something is up:

      

     1)   the opp has no hooks in the military so that is a lie

      

     Military reactions are not really so tied to opp hooks. This is what HCF
     makes believe through his statements.   There are enough reasons to find
     unrest within the military as to think they need to be a**enchanted by
     the oppa**.  This doesna**t mean that opp is not capitalizing the
     discomfort.

      

     2)   if there is a loyalty issue its internal

      

     Yes, there is an internal loyalty issue.  Tiredness, Fear of future and
     of losing privileges.

      

     3)   The military said they would only recognize ChA!vez, as the C&C so
     guess the Constitution and the 2012 elections are a moot point!

      

     This is the a**scary manipulative speecha*|. But people dona**t buy this
     so easily.  There is more concern for potential militias reactions
     (untrained and fanatics).

      

     4) Chavez just announced 2 B in loans for more guns BECAUSE HE WILL NEED
     A STRONG MILITARY FROM 2013 TO 2020!

      

     What is going on and why now when Chavez is suppose to be on the mend
     and his popularity is up and he has more access to $$$ enhancing
     fluidity of capital?

      

     He needs to keep the idea that the country is going to be invaded.  He
     needs to keep in the popular imaginary that we need to get ready to
     defend the fatherland from the enemy.  That helps him to keep his
     follower a**togethera**. 

      

     Why all the fuss?

      

     HCF is worried.  Unrest in military barracks is a fact.  Rumors that
     some high ranks military might have asked the Presidente. to withdraw
     from office due to his illness, are spreading since last week.  As I
     said before, they dona**t want to lose his a**power sharea**.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-03-01 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/107541_re-alpha-insight-venezuela-concerns-over-military-dissent.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","","zucha@stratfor.com",""
107808,"Re: STRAT-DOC Example
","   even having one of these done by tomorrow would be a miracle for me, let
   alone three

   On 8/15/11 3:58 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     This is an example of what I am looking for in the regional Strat-Docs
     that you're working on.  As a reminder, the AOR doc is intended to
     present in condensed form the STRATFOR point of view on the issues that
     we care about. his is a doc that will continue to be built out, but as a
     starting point, i want us to have this as a foundation for us to update
     day by day and week by week when we meet as a team and when new issues
     comes to the fore. As new info comes in (whether through insight, OSINT,
     research, etc.) we have a very easy reference to throw that info against
     and see if it affirms or undermines our own assessment. This also
     prevents anyone from going off the reservation on any given assessment.

     Below is an example of what I wrote on Iran (will be adding links)

                               MIDEAST STRAT-DOC

                 A compilation of regional themes and forecasts

      

                      ** BROAD TREND - THE RISE OF IRAN **

      

     Iran Net Assessment:  Iran is essentially a mountain fortress, whose
     core is situated in the Zagros and Elburz highlands. After nearly half a
     millennia, Iran is now in a position to work on one of its final
     imperatives of eliminating Mesopotamia as a strategic threat. Iran's
     domestic socioeconomic troubles, the fractious nature of the region's
     Shiite landscape, the threat of conflict with the United States and a
     rising Turkey are all significant constraints to Iranian westward
     expansion.

      

     Decade Forecast on Iran - 2010-2020

     Iran will be contained, as it simply does not have the underlying power
     to be a major player in the region beyond its immediate horizons.
     Whether this will be by military action and isolation of Iran or by a
     political arrangement with the current or a successor regime is unclear
     but irrelevant to the broader geopolitical issue

      

     Iranian influence in Iraq and US-Iran Negotiations

      

     Iran's has a core imperative to consolidate Shiite power in Iraq so as
     to prevent the emergence of another hostile Sunni power on its Western
     flank and to create a strategic foothold in the heart of the Arab world
     with which to project its influence.

      

     Iran's facilitation of the US invasion of Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein
     formed the foundation of a US-Iran negotiation over the future of Iraq.
     What the US did not anticipate was that the fall of the Sunni Baathist
     regime would fundamentally upset the Arab/Persian and broader Sunni/Shia
     balance of power in the Persian Gulf region. As a result, the US
     position has increasingly felt the need to develop a strong
     counterbalance to Iranian power in Iraq.

      

     MAIN QUESTION MOVING FORWARD - (as stated in 2011 annual forecast)

      

     The most important question in the Persian Gulf is the degree to which
     the United States will draw down its forces in the region. The answer to
     this question determines the region's geopolitical reality.

      

     Other than the United States, the greatest military power in the Persian
     Gulf region is Iran. Whether or not Iran acquires nuclear weapons, it is
     the major conventional power. Should the United States remove all
     effective military force in Iraq and limit its forces in Kuwait, two
     things would happen. First, Iraq would fall under Iranian domination.
     Second, the states on the Arabian Peninsula would have to accommodate
     the new balance of power, making concessions to Iranian interests.

      

     The strategic dilemma the US faces is that Iran, through its political,
     religious, business and militant links, clearly holds the upper hand in
     any negotiation taking place in Baghdad over an extended stay for US
     forces in Iraq. Iran could negotiate a small number of US `trainers' to
     remain in Iraq, but only with the intention of having those forces
     vulnerable to Iranian proxies. US, on the other hand, has an interest in
     maintaining at least one division of troops that would be reconfigured
     and equipped to block Iran.

      

     2011 ANNUAL FORECAST - The United States will seek to retain a
     significant presence in Iraq to balance Iran rather than withdraw fully.
     We also forecast a significant, behind-the-scenes progression in
     U.S.-Iranian negotiations toward the year's end as Washington tries to
     cope with the strategic dilemma of leaving a power vacuum in Iraq.

      

     3rd QUARTER FORECAST - We said that Iran so far has been able to block
     U.S. efforts in Iraq but that the struggle is not over. The United
     States will continue trying to persuade more independent-minded Iraqi
     factions to support an extended stay for U.S. forces. Iran will continue
     to use agents of influence in Iraq, particularly the Sadrites to remind
     both U.S. and Iraqi officials of the consequences of defying Iran's
     wishes on this issue. Confident in its position in Iraq, Iran will also
     try to assert its influence in Afghanistan and try to convince
     Washington that a broader negotiation with Tehran is needed in order to
     exit the war. However, given the limits to Iran's influence in this
     arena, such efforts are unlikely to make much headway.

      

     Iranian Nuclear Issue

      

     STRATFOR believes that Iran has primarily spent the past decade using
     its nuclear program as a bargaining chip in broader negotiations with
     the US over Iraq, as the Iraq imperatives comes well before the desire
     to develop a nuclear deterrent strategy. The more confident Iran becomes
     over Iraq, the more energy and resources it can devote to building a
     credible nuclear deterrent to round outs security. However, there is a
     huge distance between testing a nuclear device and weaponizing one. We
     believe Iran is facing significant technical challenges in developing a
     nuclear weapons capability, due in no small part to interdiction efforts
     and Israel's covert campaign to sabotage the program.

      

     STRATFOR considers any sanctions campaign against Iran will not be
     effective in shaping Iran's behavior to Western interests without the
     full and active involvement of Russia and China (which we consider
     unlikely.) There is much money to be made in a sanctions bonanza, and
     though Iran is finding it more difficult to do day to day business, it
     is not going to isolated from the global economy.

      

     Potential for US/Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities

      

     We believe the chance of surgical strikes targeting Iranian nuclear
     facilities is very low, inasmuch as the Iranian response would be to
     attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz. While it is possible for the U.S.
     Navy to keep the strait clear, it cannot control the market reaction to
     military activity there. The consequences of failure for the global
     economy would be enormous and too great a risk without a much broader
     war designed to destroy Iran's conventional forces (naval, air and land)
     from the air. This could be done, but it would take many months and also
     run huge risks.
     http://www.stratfor.com/forecast/20110107-annual-forecast-2011

      

     Iran's main deterrent strategy against an attack on its nuclear
     facilities has 3 prongs - closing the Strait of Hormuz, Hezbollah
     attacks, destabilizing Iraq; Iran still has the Hormuz option, though
     it's a costly one. Hezbollah remains Iran's strongest militant proxy,
     but the group is under increased strain now given the Syria situation.
     The Iraq option loses its punch if US significantly draws down its
     presence in Iraq.

      

     Iranian influence in Levant

      

     Iran's IRGC has been strengthening its grip on Hezbollah in Lebanon over
     the past several years, but is know facing a serious threat of seeing
     its influence in the Levant decline should the Al Assad regime in Syria
     collapse and lead to prolonged instability in the country.

      

     Iran relies on Damascus as its primary for a logistic feed to Hezbollah
     in Lebanon as well as Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Gaza (We
     believe Iran has been able to displace a significant amount of Saudi
     influence in Gaza since the 2007 Hamas Gaza takeover.) Without active
     cooperation from Syria, Iran will be much more constrained in
     maintaining support to its proxies in this region.

      

     QUESTION MOVING FORWARD - What is Iran's contingency plan for the
     collapse of the Al Assad regime? Can Iran find an alternative among the
     Alawites to back that would be able to get Christian support in trying
     to keep the Sunnis from coming to power? What is the HZ contingency plan
     for regime collapse in Syria?

      

     Iran's Aim to Reshape the Political Reality in Eastern Arabia

      

     STRATFOR believes that Iran exploited the Arab unrest in North Africa to
     fuel a destabilization campaign in Bahrain that it hoped would spread to
     Shiite-concentrated areas of Saudi Arabia's oil-rich Eastern Province.
     The Iranian intent is to reshape the political reality of Eastern Arabia
     to place Bahrain in Shiite hands, remove US military installations in
     the Persian Gulf and assert Shiite power in the Saudi kingdom. Iranian
     capability in this regard, however, is still highly limited.

      

     Iran has political, religious, commercial and covert links in Bahrain to
     maintain a foothold there, but does not appear to have what it takes to
     force regime change. The STRATFOR assessment (based primarily on insight
     from George) is that Iran still has a lot more force to bear in Bahrain
     should it feel the need and opportunity to do so. This is an assessment
     worthy of being challenged.  STRATFOR also believes Iran's agenda for
     Bahrain is far more long-term, focused right now on building existing
     dissent in the isles and using the threat of a broader Iranian
     destabilization campaign in Eastern Arabia to coerce Saudi Arabia into
     an accommodation on Iranian terms. We saw hints of Iran-Saudi
     negotiations over a truce in Bahrain in the early part of the 3rd
     quarter, but not much movement since.

      

     Iran's Internal Power Struggle

      

     STRATFOR does not believe the youth-led Green Movement that arose in
     Iran in 2009 from the elections has the internal strength to seriously
     challenge the regime. The demonstrations are not representative of the
     majority will of the population and Iran's internal security apparatus
     appears capable of suppressing this level of dissent.

      

     STRATFOR does not see Iran's internal power struggle in the upper ranks
     of the regime as a dire enough to propel the fall of the regime on its
     own, either. There is an important dynamic underway, however, in which a
     faction led by Ahmadinejad is posing a serious challenge to the
     legitimacy of the corrupted clerical elite. We believe this movement
     will outlive Ahmadinejad and create further cleavages within the regime.
     Rather than this split leading to regime collapse and democratic
     revolution (what the media seems to think will happen,) we see the
     military - specifically the IRGC - most benefiting from this power
     struggle. The IRGC is likely to emerge as the most powerful institution
     in Iran in the medium to longer term.

      

     Iran-Russia Relations

      

     Russia is Iran's primary source of foreign support, but the alliance
     between Moscow and Tehran is highly tenuous. Iran and Russia are natural
     geopolitical rivals; Russia does not want to see Iran dominating the
     Persian Gulf region, developing a nuclear capability, exerting influence
     in the Caucasus or becoming a major energy alternative to Russia for the
     West. In the shorter term, however, Iran is a useful irritant to the
     United States for Russia to in its broader negotiations with Washington.
     Ultimately, Iran is an expendable bargaining chip for Russia, which
     makes Iran deeply vulnerable. The main pressure points Russia can use in
     playing the Iran card include: the potential sale of S300s to Iran, the
     completion of Bushehr and additional nuclear expertise given to Iran,
     UNSC backing (or lack thereof), security assistance in containing
     dissent, sanctions busting - gasoline sales.
","2011-08-15 23:03:40",1,"2012-08-05 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/107808_re-strat-doc-example-.html","bayless.parsley@stratfor.com","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com",""
107944,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA/TURKEY/KSA - KSA and Turkey fed up with
 the Syrian regime - Syria working with PKK? - ME1
","   A reliable media report that I saw says that US expert on Syria Fred Hof
   was present in Ricciardione's meeting with IK yesterday. Apparently Turkey
   is still opposed to sanctions and military intervention. It's not clear
   what US demands from Turkey concretely.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Emre Dogru\" <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, August 9, 2011 10:21:33 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA/TURKEY/KSA - KSA and Turkey fed up
   with the Syrian regime - Syria working with PKK? - ME1

   I don't think Syria has come to a point where it decided to support PKK
   against Turkey. That's always possible as I said in my comment yesterday,
   but would be a very risky move for Syria. Plus, I'm not sure how much PKK
   would listen to Damascus now. As far as I know, Turkish and Syrian
   factions within PKK do not see eye to eye on many issues. It should also
   be remembered that Ocalan warned PKK against being pulled into Syrian
   orbit and this makes it all the more difficult for Damascus.
   As far as the popular pressure is concerned, I really doubt that what the
   Turkish diplomat says reflects the truth 100 percent. I'm not seeing a
   public pressure on AKP that would force it to intervene in Syria no matter
   what (weeping Emine is a silly example). I mean, if you think about it,
   you would expect much more reaction from an Islamist Sunni government
   government in Turkey, especially during Ramadan. All Islamist ministers
   condemn Syria, but they don't go beyond. You would expect mass protests,
   demonstrations before the Syrian embassy, rallies and hunger strikes in
   Taksim square etc. Nothing is taking place and probably AKP controls the
   public reaction not to get under pressure.
   As such, I don't think Turks are looking for an excuse to intervene.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
   To: alpha@stratfor.com
   Sent: Monday, August 8, 2011 7:58:22 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA/TURKEY/KSA - KSA and Turkey fed up
   with the Syrian regime - Syria working with PKK? - ME1

   I have noticed how senior Turkish figures have been extremely emotional in
   their anger and sadness about the way in which the Syrians have been
   killing their citizens. I think the Turks are very close to saying fuck it
   with regards to the Syrian regime. I don't think Ankara will use the
   military. Rather its political influence among the Sunnis, which doesn't
   have to do with the common fiqh (most Muslims do not relate on the fiqhi
   basis) and instead general sectarian, ideological, and historical
   linkages. The AKP has developed good ties with its own Alevi population,
   which they will use to influence the Alawites in Syria.  

   On 8/8/11 12:07 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     PUBLICATION: background/analysis
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1 reflecting on his meetings with Turkish and
     Saudi ambassadors to Lebanon
     Reliability : B
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 4 - pretty dramatic viewpoints.
     DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
     ** The source's mention of Syria 'talking' to PKK caught my eye. Does
     Turkey thing Syria is trying to ramp up PKK to distract Turkey from any
     military adventurism in Syria?  Have we heard anything else on this?

     There is nothing that Bashar Asad can do at this point to salvage his
     regime. This is the impression that I got today from communicating with
     both the TUrkish and Saudi ambassadors. Both diplomats say Asad has
     defied their repeated requests that he listens to his people but he
     chose, instead, to deal with the protests in a very heavy-handed manner.
     The Turkish diplomat says Asad thinks that former Egyptian president
     Husni Mubarak and his Tunisian counterpart Zayn al-Abidin bin Ali fell
     because they did not use enough coercive force to crush the protests and
     gave up too soon. The Saudi Diplomat says Asad has consistently
     discarded king Abdullah's advice. Abdullah sent his son Abdulaziz to
     relay to Asad that the Saudi king really likes him and considers him as
     his son. Abdulaziz told Asad to be more flexible and display grace in
     dealing with his frustrated people. Asad has made it extremely difficult
     for Abdullah to come to the rescue, and noted that he has to listen to
     the Saudi people, especially the religious establishment, who are
     vehemently anti-Asad.

     The Turkish source says his country's minister of foreign affairs Davut
     Oglu will be serving the Syrians an ultimatum tomorrow. He says the
     Syrian regime is talking to the PKK. He adds that the Syrian regime has
     crossed the red line and will have to bear the cost of its short sight
     and recalcitrance. The anti-Asad regional and international storm is
     gathering. He ays this development and changing attitude towards Asad is
     of the utmost necessity  for legitimizing future Turkish military action
     inside Syria. The Saudi source says Abdulaziz told Asad on a number of
     occasions to avoid giving the Turks a reason to interfere in Syria, but
     it seems Asad has not succeeded in grasping the complexity of the
     regional situation.  KSA does not want Turkey to expand its regional
     position because it will only come at the expense of moderate Arabs.

     The Turkish diplomat says Asad's crudeness is threatening Turkey's
     stability. The Syrian government has lost its ability to control its own
     side of the 850 km long border between the two countries. He says there
     is, in addition, a strong popular pressure inside Turkey for
     intervention in Syria. He gave one example - the Turkish prime
     minister's wife is an ethnic Syrian. She keeps crying when she sees
     gruesome images coming from Syria. She has been telling Erdogan to do
     something about it. The Turkish diplomat was quick to add that Turkish
     foreign policy is not determined by the tears of a weeping wife. He says
     there are very many similar cases of pressure coming from Turkey. Many
     Turks still consider Syria an extension of Turkey and there are millions
     of ethnic Arabs living in Turkey. Both Turks and Syrians share a similar
     culture and adherence to the same school of Islamic jurisprudence, i.e.,
     the Hanafi school.

     Both Turkish and Saudi diplomat expect the spread of the protest
     movement in Syria to Aleppo and Damascus and seem to accept that the
     Syrian uprising is unstoppable. They argue that it is too late for Asad
     to do something about it at this point. Both concur that the worst is
     yet to happen in Syria.

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com


   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-08-09 09:28:51",1,"2012-03-08 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/107944_re-alpha-insight-syria-turkey-ksa-ksa-and-turkey-fed-up-with.html","emre.dogru@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
108196,"Re: [latam] BRAZIL/PARAGUAY/CT - Brazil's Parana state decided to
 create frontier battalion with military police to combat crime along
 borders with Paraguay and Argentina
","   this does not mean, however, that there is no coordination with the
   federal police in cases that they have to deal with border security. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Paulo Gregoire\" <paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com>
   To: \"LatAm AOR\" <latam@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, August 16, 2011 11:34:59 AM
   Subject: Re: [latam] BRAZIL/PARAGUAY/CT - Brazil's Parana state decided to
   create frontier battalion with military police to combat crime along
   borders with Paraguay and Argentina

   state police only have power within their own state. when it comes to
   dealing borders and international crimes the federal police is the one
   that has power. Every state in Brazil has a military and civil police.
   State military police is under the state jurisdication not federal.In Rio
   Grande do Sul, the military police is a military brigade because at the
   time of the civil war against Brazil, the state police was used to fight
   Brazilian troops. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Allison Fedirka\" <allison.fedirka@stratfor.com>
   To: \"LatAm AOR\" <latam@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, August 16, 2011 11:27:41 AM
   Subject: Re: [latam] BRAZIL/PARAGUAY/CT - Brazil's Parana state decided to
   create frontier battalion with military police to combat crime along
   borders with Paraguay and Argentina

   How much power can military police in Parana have?  Paraguay obviously
   picked this story up because they are paranoid of invasion; I didn't see
   mention of it in my Argentina sweep this AM.  Just want to see how much
   this fits in with our thoughts on Brazil - both in terms of border
   security and growing influence in Paraguay

   Brasil crearA! un \"batallA^3n fronterizo\" para combatir la delincuencia
   18:30 - Lunes, 15 de Agosto de 2011 -
   http://www.ultimahora.com/notas/454754-Brasil-creara-un-batallon-fronterizo-para-combatir-la-delincuencia

   El estado de ParanA!, Brasil, decidiA^3 crear un \"batallA^3n fronterizo de
   la policAa militar\" para combatir la delincuencia en la zona fronteriza
   con Paraguay y Argentina. El ministro de defensa Amorim manifestA^3 el
   apoyo del Gobierno Federal.

   El gobernador de ParanA!, Beto Richa, manifestA^3 al ministro de Defensa
   brasileA+-o Celso Amorim, la decisiA^3n del Gobierno estadual de crear un
   batallA^3n de frontera de la policAa militar, que debe contar con al menos
   500 hombres, y le propuso la integraciA^3n de las medidas de seguridad
   para combatir el narcotrA!fico y el contrabando de armas y otros
   productos, segA-on informa el sitio web del gobierno paranaense.

   Por su parte, el ministro respondiA^3 de forma positiva, afirmando que
   conoce bien la zona fronteriza de ParanA! y que el gobierno federal estA!
   dispuesto a abordar el problema con las fuerzas de seguridad nacional, en
   corto plazo, y que las nuevas medidas se adoptarA!n a lo largo de la parte
   sur del paAs.

   \"Estamos preparando un plan integral de protecciA^3n y control de las
   fronteras. Tenemos todo el interA(c)s en apoyar las iniciativas de
   ParanA!, principalmente con la movilizaciA^3n de la Armada\", sostuvo.

   La reuniA^3n en Brasil fue acompaA+-ado por el general De Nardi, parte del
   ministro del gabinete y los secretarios de Reinaldo Almeida Cesar
   (Seguridad PA-oblica) y Deonilson Rolde (Jefe de Gabinete), y el jefe de
   la oficina de representaciA^3n de ParanA! en Brasilia Alceni guerra.

   El secretario de Seguridad PA-oblica, Reinaldo Almeida CA(c)sar, anunciA^3
   que se vienen nuevas reuniones de la Mesa de GestiA^3n Integrada (GGI) en
   Foz de IguazA-o, creado con el propA^3sito especAfico de aumentar la
   seguridad pA-oblica en la zona fronteriza.

   El grupo trabaja en la planificaciA^3n y coordinaciA^3n de acciones de
   cumplimiento para combatir el crimen organizado y el narcotrA!fico en las
   zonas fronterizas de ParanA!, con Paraguay y Argentina.

   La mayor interacciA^3n entre el Gobierno de ParanA! y el EjA(c)rcito
   tambiA(c)n serA! abordado por el gobernador Beto Richa y el comandante
   militar del Sur, el general Carlos BolAvar Goellner.
","2011-08-16 16:36:30",1,"2012-03-13 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/108196_re-latam-brazil-paraguay-ct-brazil-s-parana-state-decided-to.html","paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com","mailto:latam@stratfor.com","latam@stratfor.com",""
113138,"[alpha] INSIGHT - AUSTRALIA/CHINA - Iron Ore Prices - via CN65
","   SOURCE: via CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

     Iron Ore Prices

     Further mine earlier, which quotes paper for Indian or
     Brazilian 63.5/63% delivered China.

     Please note the following report on Physical prices, which
     shows paper is lagging physical by quite a margin.

     This report also underscores 'with facts' my ongoing views
     as to The reality of what is happening in China with steel
     production, contrary to the Rhetoric going around about a
     Chinese Slowdown.

     Bad news for China and all steel producers struggling to
     pass on margins due to increasing steel production costs
     but very good news for all Iron ore producers.

     PHYSICAL MARKET

     The physical market remained firm on Wednesday, with
     activity improved and trades/tenders at around last done
     levels. Platts reported Australian 61.5% Fe Pilbara fines
     trading at $178.50/dmt CFR Qingdao compared to $178/dmt
     CFR North China on Tuesday.

     Meanwhile, TSI reported Brazilian 63.5/63% Fe fines
     and 65/64% Fe fines trading at $183/dmt and $193.50/dmt
     (CFR China) respectively.

     Indian 63.5/63% Fe fines were also reported done at
     $189-$190/dmt. The TSI, Platts and Metal Bulletin indices
     were all marked a touch higher:

     TSI 62% (3.5% Al):   $178.30 (up $0.40)       
     PLATTS 62%:   $180.25 (up $0.50)             
     MBIOI 62%:   $178.31 (up $0.54)
     TSI 62% (2.0% Al):   $180.80 (up $0.40)

     Spot iron ore prices held firm on Wednesday, as strong
     steel output in top producer China kept buying interest
     for the raw material intact, with tight Indian supplies
     lending support, reports Reuters. An iron ore trader in
     Singapore, citing factors supporting prices, said \"The
     Chinese continue to produce steel like crazy andIndian
     supplies are extremely tight at the moment, \" Reuters added.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
","2011-08-25 12:47:14",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/113138_-alpha-insight-australia-china-iron-ore-prices-via-cn65-.html","ben.preisler@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
116613,"[alpha] INSIGHT - CN65 Re: DISPATCH PROPOSAL/DISCUSSION - The
 problems with Cosco and its	bigger implications
","   **Source helped me to flesh out some of the comments on the piece and
   says:
   Please see my comments in red.  I know my stuff here.  I specialised in
   shipping law at Oxford, and I have been talking to my shipbroker about the
   matter in the last few days.  My shipbroker is in one of the biggest
   broking firms in the world, and he specialises in capesize dry bulk.  I
   reckon he know's his stuff also.
   SOURCE: via CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

           Navios Maritime partners is currently in the midst of a contract

           dispute with China's shipping company, Cosco.  The recent dispute

           has resulting in the seizure of at least three Cosco ships in

           various ports worldwide.

           Cosco is accused of withholding charter payments for ships that it

           chartered long-term for upwards of $80,000 per day during the

           dry-bulk shipping boom in 2008.  The current average spot-market

           rates to charter capesize vessels are a little under $17,000.

           Moody's has said that any downward negotiation of contracted
           charter

           rates would negatively affect dry bulk shipowners worldwide.

           According to Moody's any renegotiation of contracts could set a
           bad

           precedent for other Chinese companies.*drop the moody's reference
           -

           irrelevant*  I think Moody's are right.  It adds risk for all the
           companies that build and own ships but bareboat charter them.
            You've seen the stats I've sent you on the number and total dwt
           of the capesize fleet world wide.  A large number of these are on
           bareboat charter.  That is a real risk for the financial viability
           of the shipping sector, especially given that capesize rates are
           close to opex at the moment.

           Why does this matter?

           According to intelligence gathered from the coal industry that

           frequently uses Cosco's services, one of the most fundamental
           points

           about shipping law is that it is \"black letter law\", meaning that

           the contracts are inviolable.*er...its a nice thought but these

           rates change all the time -- what's important is that they not

           change during a sail*  Charter rates vary daily on the spot market
           for time charters, that is chartering a ship to take a stem from
           one port to another.  They are fixed at the time the ship is
           contracted.  However, the ships Cosco chartered are bareboat
           charters, not time charters, and the charter rates were set years
           ago for the duration of the charter.  If you don't own your own
           ships, but bareboat charter them, you have two types of risk:
           business risk in getting sufficient stems and back loads to make
           the ship profitable on opex; and the risk that the spread between
           your bareboat charter rate and the time charter rate doesn't move
           against you as it did in this case with Cosco.  They're screwed.

           For China in particular this could have important implications

           beyond just their shipping industry, and could affect Chinese

           sovereign risk.  Some foreign commodity traders have already begun

           to refuse sourcing requests from Chinese *shipping? *companies to

           protect their reputations.*am i understanding that? they're
           refusing

           to use chinese ships?*  The broader sovereign risk issue is why
           buyers like Rizhao are being locked out of the iron ore market in
           Australia, as well as a host of smaller companies which have not
           defaulted, but which are assessed as possibly likely to do so.  On
           the shipping front, the concern I mentioned came from the
           representative of a Chinese buyer who has chartered Cosco to take
           a stem from Gladstone to Xiamen is real.  If Cosco's ship turns up
           and is arrested, the buyer is liable to the seller for the failure
           to meet the terms of the contract and present a ship \"ready to
           load\" Gladstone.  They may not charter Cosco again until they get
           a clean bill of health.  If other Chinese shippers take this
           approach, then there will be real queries in the market about
           Chinese ship operators.  In the iron ore market the sellers are
           also selling C&F, so why would they take the risk on a Chinese
           shipping company when they would be liable to the buyer if the
           shipment doesn't arrive?

           Both iron ore and coal companies already extract a \"China
           premium\",

           costing China daily for every shipment they receive. *what's the

           premium on? the commodities? the shipping rates?*  Not openly
           discussed, but probably a couple of dollars a tonne on iron ore.
            See my previous estimation of total cost. These issues

           started to really become apparent in 2009 in both the coal and
           iron

           ore industries.  And one source in the industry says that these

           issues probably cost China over a billion dollars in additional
           iron

           ore prices each year.*if its in the commodites themselves i'm not

           sure what this has to do with shipping?*  It is all about broad
           perceptions of sovereign risk.

           This example is just one of many that exhibits a growing wariness
           of

           doing business with China and enforcing legal agreements with

           Chinese companies is notoriously hard according to lawyers engaged

           in the business.

           However, if China can continue to sweeten deals with cheap
           capital,

           there are many international businesses that will continue to
           assume

           the risks, until the stakes outweigh the benefits.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
","2011-09-01 14:25:14",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/116613_-alpha-insight-cn65-re-dispatch-proposal-discussion-the.html","ben.preisler@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
117802,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - CZECH REPUBLIC - BMD, US, Russia,
 military & more - CZ103 & CZ104
","   yea, the CzRs are nervous about someone like McFaul messing it up.
   btw, he was at the dinner I went to last night... the Uzbeks were falling
   all over themselves to speak with him.
   On 9/2/11 2:01 PM, Eugene Chausovsky wrote:

     This is fascinating stuff. You can how much the C. Europeans want the
     Intermarium to materialize, all with the explicit backing of the US.

     The question is how willing with the US be to go along with this F-16
     plan...

     On 9/2/11 12:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       Link: themeData

        

       CzR = Czech Republic

        

       CODE: CZ103 & 104
       PUBLICATION: yes 
       ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Prague/Washington
       SOURCE DESCRIPTION: 

       103 - Deputy to the Czech Ambassador; moving in Oct to be deputy FM

       104 - Czech security attache

       (Ambassador stopped in for a few min)

       SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
       ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
       DISSEMINATION: Alpha
       HANDLER: Lauren

        

        

       The CEs need NATO. Plain and simple. They need a functional NATO. And
       they need NATO to return to its primary focus-containment of the large
       threat (Russia), and protection of the NATO land (them). Containment
       has to be the primary focus for NATO. No matter who you are, if you're
       in NATO, you need to understand this.

       CzR doesn't see NATO doing this with tanks, like before. It will do
       this with missile defense and military projects (F16s-see below).
       Planting NATO's flag on CE soil. So that Russia cannot do that
       instead.

        

       Yes, NATO has lost its focus with the wars, but BMD and such can unite
       and refocus NATO once again.

        

       BMD

        

       CzR wants a role in missile defense. This cannot be stressed enough.
       The announcement under Obama to give bmd to others obliterated the
       Czech-US relationship-it is non-existent now.

        

       Now this may seem contrary to what has been in the media, but everyone
       has it wrong on what actually happened in the Czech-US bmd
       negotiations under Bush. To start with, no one is/was straightforward
       in the negotiations. Yes, it is understandable that the US keeps their
       plans secret, but not when you are suppose to have a partner in the
       negotiations.

        

       So here is how it played out: Bush's team came to CzR and proposed for
       the country to be part of the \"bmd system\". That was all they said.
       Some officials alluded that it would be the radar. In the Czech
       government, there was agreement that bmd was imperative. But every
       piece of formal documentation from the US was incredibly vague and
       didn't spell out what would actually be coming into CzR as part of the
       system. It was very strange and confusing. We had never done
       negotiations like this. So, we put off signing any document until we
       could know what exactly we were agreeing to. Why would we agree to be
       part of the bmd system, and not know what exactly that meant? Then
       they came to us and said that CzR would have to pay for its part of
       the system. We didn't have that sort of money at the time. It was a
       mess.

        

       Then the new plan came from Obama in 2009. Obama's plan didn't have
       the radar in Czech Republic anymore. Obama's team said that Czech
       Republic wasn't a \"priority\" for their administration and that other
       countries were more important to put the radar in-Romania, Turkey,
       Lithuania or others. Problem is that Romania says they have the deal,
       but they haven't had confirmation from the US on this. Turkey also
       thinks it has the deal, but it doesn't have confirmation either. No
       one knows who is getting the radar portion of the system. Everyone
       wants it. The Obama team then came to CzR and offered a \"piece\" of the
       bmd system. We were excited. But when we got the the formal proposal,
       it was for a \"bmd scientific research center\". This was simply
       unacceptable. This was not good enough for us. CzR needs US military
       on its soil, not a \"research\" center with no military and would have
       to be paid for by the Czechs anyway. Completely ridiculous. So we
       pulled out of any agreement to the current system.

        

       If the US came and said that radar would be put in CzR, we would agree
       immediately. But instead the US doesn't value CzR relationship at all.

        

       When CzR publicly pulled out of the current bmd system in June,
       Russian FM immediately called Czech FM and said that it appreciated
       the reconsideration. Czech FM said that it had nothing to do with
       Russia. That Russia hadn't intimidated it to change its stance,
       instead CzR was more fired up to \"retaliate\" against Russian
       aggression.

        

       As far as the current talks between the US and Russia on bmd, most of
       the CEs want to sabotage them. No one wants Russia in on bmd.
       Moreover, no one wants the US and Russia to be friendly. The US needs
       to quit with this reset-nonsense and move forward with a firm military
       strategy in CE. The CEs want to move against Russia, but can't do it
       alone.

        

       New CE Security Plan

        

       So if CzR can't get in the bmd system, there is another deal we will
       push for, as we are determined to get US military on our soil.

        

       CzR wants a batch of F-16s like Poland. It needs supersonic. It
       doesn't really want the new Grippen. CzR is begging the US right now
       for F-16s. The US said it would sell them, but at an exorbitant price.
       They are far too expensive for CzR who has had to slash some of their
       defense budget because of the financial crisis.

        

       Also, other countries who sell military equipment to CzR and the CEs
       do it within other deals, so it isn't just an expensive military deal.
       For example, the French sell things to CzR, but then purchase
       agricultural equipment from CzR in trade-all part of one deal (LG: I
       pointed out how the Russians do this all the time. Military trade for
       gold deals, etc). This creates a relationship more than just around
       one sector. The US hasn't done this.

        

       So the plan that CzR is now presenting is for 5 or 6 Central European
       countries to go in together and do a mass order of the F-16s in
       exchange for a discount by the US. It would be Romania, Slovakia,
       Hungary, Bulgaria and maybe more for Poland - for 85 or so F-16s. It
       would be interesting because then all of them could train together in
       one country and then set up a repair factory in another country. The
       countries would be tied together - and tied to the US. The US would
       need to have military on the ground to train the CEs. This is the best
       sort of security alliance between US and CEs.

        

       If CzR can't get bmd or the F16 deal, then it is done with any
       non-Eurasian commitments to NATO. Period. If CzR can get bmd or the
       F16s, then it will pretty much agree to any sort of military
       commitment the US wants anywhere in the world. That is the ultimatum.

        

       Germans

        

       CzR is really on a different page on most issues than Germany. But is
       on the same page as pretty much everything with the Poles. So the
       Poles and other Central Europeans are its true partners. The Germans
       are like toddlers in their defense strategy. They have been divided
       for so long, that they do not understand how to act inside of NATO.
       This is why they are nice to the Russians. It is the wrong strategy
       with them. The Germans think they can handle the Russians. They can't.
       Germany can't get the other NATO members to agree with it, so it only
       works bilaterally with the Russians, undermining NATO's focus.

        

       Other Alliances

        

       Nordic Alliance is a fascinating thing, but there is no plan for V4
       yet. Sure it'll have a battlegroup, but it'll be under the EU and not
       really going to flesh out without some \"outside\" help. V4 is
       overestimated in the US. There is no structure or command plan for it.
       It has been a painful process under the EU.

        

       Ukraine

        

       CzR is worried about Ukraine. It is so pro-Russian that there is a
       concern that it will militarize under the Moscow umbrella. Everyone in
       CE is concerned about this militarization.

        

       McFaul

        

       On McFaul: everyone in CE hates dealing with him. He is deluded. He
       believes that Russia can actually be pulled into being an ally with
       the US. McFaul wants to use Regan's gameplan. He constantly quotes
       Regan. On a sidenote, in McFaul's office there is a large (really
       large, like4x3) photo blown up above his desk of McFaul, Obama,
       Medvedev and Putin all sitting around the lunchtable smiling. However,
       the way I heard it was that McFaul was scared to death of Putin and
       stuttered the entire time.

       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-02 22:31:54",1,"2012-02-27 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/117802_re-alpha-insight-czech-republic-bmd-us-russia-military-and.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
118334,"Re: reva & kamran Fwd: Re: Source/confed opp in Beirut
","   We are looking for a confed partner.  If ME1 can facilitate a relationship
   with a media outlet in Lebanon, that would be great, but I'm not really
   looking to see if we have access to journos per se.

   On 9/6/11 11:19 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     I have heard of it but have not seen much from them.

     On 9/6/11 12:18 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

       i have not heard of this one, but keep in mind that we have journalist
       contacts (editors) for pretty much every Lebanese media agency of any
       significance via ME1

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: \"Jennifer Richmond\" <richmond@stratfor.com>
       To: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>, \"Kamran Bokhari\"
       <bokhari@stratfor.com>
       Sent: Tuesday, September 6, 2011 10:03:09 AM
       Subject: reva & kamran Fwd: Re: Source/confed opp in Beirut

       Have either of you heard of this publication?

       -------- Original Message --------

       Subject: Re: Source/confed opp in Beirut           
          Date: Tue, 06 Sep 2011 09:21:41 -0500           
          From: kyle.rhodes <kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com>    
            To: Jennifer Richmond <richmond@stratfor.com> 
            CC: Confederation <confed@stratfor.com>       

       I've never heard of them and we've never done an interview with them
       to my knowledge. The only mention of us on their site is a repub of a
       Reuters article from last month featuring an interview with Kamran on
       Libya.

       Maybe send to Reva or Kamran to see if they know him?

       On 9/6/11 9:09 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

         Yes.  Do you have any background on this paper, Kyle?  Most
         definitely interested in expanding in the ME.

         On 9/6/2011 9:06 AM, kyle.rhodes wrote:

           Let me know if you're interested - I've not responded yet.

           -------- Original Message --------

           Subject: Request a Complimentary Media Account and Join your Media 
                    List                                                      
              Date: Sat, 3 Sep 2011 10:49:32 -0400                            
              From: Sylviane Zehil <sylviane@zehil.com>                       
                To: PR@STRATFOR.com                                           

           Dear Sir/Madam,

           I am writing you to request a Complimentary Media Account and Join
           your Media List.
           I am currently the New York and UN Bureau Chief for L'Orient Le
           Jour, a leading independent daily newspaper based in Beirut,
           Lebanon. I am interested in covering Middle East Issues.
           If you need further information I would be pleased to provide it
           to you.
           I am looking forward to hearing from you soon.
           Regards,
           Sylviane Zehil
           New York and UN Bureau Chief
           L'Orient Le Jour
           UN Room L-331 H
           (212) 963 52 36 (UN)
           (212) 529 91 36
           (917) 882 82 44 (cell)
           email: sylzehil@aol.com
           www.lorientlejour.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 richmond@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4324
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Kyle Rhodes
 Public Relations Manager
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com

 kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com
 +1.512.744.4309
 www.twitter.com/stratfor
 www.facebook.com/stratfor

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-06 20:22:53",1,"2012-02-27 02:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/118334_re-reva-and-kamran-fwd-re-source-confed-opp-in-beirut-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","","bhalla@stratfor.com,bokhari@stratfor.com,meredith@stratfor.com",""
119302,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT -- Several issues about Brazil - BR 707
","   Good question from what i could understand from source is that Brazil
   really likes Lugo and wouldnA't try to act while he is in office because
   heA's been to cooperative despite his inability to control the issue, the
   thing is that if with Lugo who is a \"friend\" of the Brazilian govt the
   situation is hard to deal with, they think that with other presidents the
   situation will be much harder to deal with. I think and this is my feeling
   from the conversation, Brazil has just started to think about other
   measures they would need to take in case things get worse, but still in
   its initial stage. I think theyA've only started thinking about other
   measures. Source said that he is supposed to get some info soon about
   AmorimA's meeting in Paraguay yesterday. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Allison Fedirka\" <allison.fedirka@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 7, 2011 5:57:06 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT -- Several issues about Brazil - BR 707

   regarding the Brasiguayos and Brazil breaking away from the tradition of
   avoiding hard decisions...
   Can you elaborate what type of decisions he was referring to?  What course
   of action Brazil might take and what would be the tipping point?  I know
   that up until now Lugo hasn't been able to control the issue in Paraguay
   and there is still quite a bit of tensions between locals
   (Paraguayan/guarani) and Brazilians, those of Brazilian descent.  Would
   Brazil need to act before Lugo is replaced in 2013?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Paulo Gregoire\" <paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com>
   To: \"watchofficer\" <watchofficer@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 7, 2011 3:49:27 PM
   Subject: INSIGHT -- Several issues about Brazil - BR 707

   CODE: BR 707
   ATTRIBUTION: Confederation Partner
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Chief analyst of a webiste in Brazil especialized in
   Brazilian military intelligence and defense policy
   PUBLICATION: if useful
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: none
   SOURCE HANDLER: PAULO

   I had lunch with our confed partner. We talked about several issues, I
   will start from some of the issues that Karen had requested about. 
   Source said that the govt will have to import ethanol because due to the
   bad sugar cane harvest and that sugar prices went up many sugar mills
   preferred selling sugar than using it for ethanol. The govt had also to
   decrease the level of ethanol in the gasoline mixture because there is a
   lack of ethanol in the domestic market. The govt, however, has decided to
   give tax exemption  to sugar mills and decrease the cost in order to use
   the sugar cane for the ethanol production. He thinks this is temporary,
   this shortage of ethanol occurred because of the bad harvest and high
   price of sugar in the international market, but he believes the govt will
   continue supporting the ethanol production and next year if everything
   occurs fine with the sugar cane harvest they will not have problems in
   supplying the domestic market and then also be able to export to other
   markets.
   The relationship between Rousseff and the business community is good. He
   said that for the bankers the interest rate of 12% is still very good for
   them to make pretty good money and the big businesses in Brazil tend to
   support more inflationary policies as they want to sell and grow. They
   were the ones who have been pressuring the govt to decrease interest
   rates.
   Source talked to the Argentine Defense Minister Arturo Puricelli about the
   possible cooperation projects between Brazil and Argentina. Source said
   the most advanced one is the production of the KC 390 airplane which parts
   of the airplane are being produced in Cordoba Argentina and the rest in
   Brazil by Embraer. Source said that Argentina is interesting in
   participating in the production of the armored vehicle Guarani, but Brazil
   said that not it is too late as this Brazilian along with the company
   Iveco are already in the latest stages in the development of this tank.
   Another joint production that that is making progress between both
   countries is the Gaucho vehicle, which source said that it is a piece of
   shit but it will be good enough to sell it and make some money. The joint
   space agency is something both countries have an interested in moving
   forward. 
   One interesting thing we discussed was BrazilA's relationship with the
   China. I  asked him why in his opinion there are so many people in the
   press, politicians, academia and even some businesses in Brazil who tend
   to call China a strategic partner if Brazil mostly sells iron ore to them
   and also have conflicting interests like an enlargement of the UN security
   council that could include Brazil and Japan. Source told me I am not
   saying anything, just look at the my hand, his hand was showing money. I
   asked him if the Chinese were bribing people to say nice things about
   China, source did not say anything just nodded his head. 
   I also talked to source about AmorimA's relationship with the armed forces
   and some possible civil-military tension. Source said that the beginning
   of AmorimA's bad relationship with the Armed Forces was when Amorim was
   foreign minister and the govt sent a bill to congress saying that if there
   was any attack to a Brazilian company abroad that could be perceived as an
   attack to the Brazilian territory as well. Amorim accused the military
   people of influencing the govt to send that bill and went public to accuse
   the armed forces. The person who actually told Lula to send that bill to
   Congress at the time was the current President Rousseff and the armed
   forces had asked Amorim to apologize to them. Since then the relationship
   between Amorim has always been bad with the armed forces. Now he is the
   minister of defense and the military people do not like it. I asked then
   if he thought there was going to be some sort of tension. Source said look
   the generals do not want trouble they wanna enjoy their fat salaries and
   have a good life, they do not want to confront the govt, the colonels want
   to be where the generals are and for that they have to play the game, and
   the lower ranks do not know where they stand and just follow the flow.
   Plus, society in general does not support the armed forces so there is
   nothing the military people can do about.
   Source also talked about the Brasiguaios, he said that this is an
   increasingly hot issue and he thinks this is the only issue that he sees
   Brazil breaking away from its tradition of avoiding hard decisions because
   the govt realizes that although they have a good relationship with Lugo,
   Lugo is too weak to impose any sort of control. I even joked saying that a
   possible conflict between Argentina and the UK over the
   Malvinas wouldn A't be an issue Brazil would get involved and he said no.
   He said Brazil would give some sort of rhetorical support and some
   logistical support as well but not really. Source thinks that the issue of
   Brasiguaios would be the main one, which Brazil could break away from its
   tradition of avoiding hard decisions. 
   Source also said that the federal police is increasing the number they
   have been monitoring, now they monitor 40 thousand people. He said that
   the workerA's party has control over the main guys at the federal police
   and use that to monitor their political enemies. 
","2011-09-07 23:04:14",1,"2012-03-13 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/119302_re-alpha-insight-several-issues-about-brazil-br-707-.html","paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
119786,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA - Turkey's plans for Syria - ME1*
","   On 9/8/11 1:50 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     SOURCE: sub-source via ME1
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Turkish diplomat in Lebanon
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: B- C
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: B for the most part - overplays the Turkish Islam card
     though
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

     The Turkish position on Syria is complex. He says part of its complexity
     has to do with Erdogan's government's strategy to avoid controversy.
     Erdogan wants to avoid making rash decisions he could regret later. This
     is why, for example, he is suspending (and not severing) relations with
     Israel. the policy of this government is to keep its options open and
     also to avoid making enemies.   Erdogan wants to create a new  image
     about Turkey. Turks had won over the centuries a reputation of being
     factious, belligerent and blood-letting people. This is the reason why
     Turkey's foreign policy is based on having zero enemies. He says that
     one side effect of the effort to avoid creating enmities is the slowness
     of reaction to changes in the world. When Turkey acts, its decisions
     tend to lack steam. Erdogan wants to transform TUrkey into another
     Germany and Japan, but with more military muscle to flex.

     Contrary to Erdogan's seeming fiery statements on Israel, the
     foundations of Turkish-Israeli relations remain essentially strong.
     Erdogan will never disappoint the U.S. After all, the U.S. is Turkey's
     strategic ally. Turkey does not want its relations with Israel to reach
     the point of no return. Erdogan wants to impress Arabs that he is
     capable of twisting the arms of Israel and get its prime minister to
     accept that Turkey is a distinguished regional leader. Turkey has
     interests in the Arab world, and neither the U.S. nor Israel has a
     problem with that. In fact, both the U.S. and Israel would like to
     encourage the spread of Turkey's type of Hanafi Islam  into the Arab
     world. Good luck! In Turkey, Islam is a private business for the most
     part, whereas in the Arab world it is a public matter. Not true.
     Remember Gulen and its rising influence. In Turkey, the state has been
     thoroughly secularized, whereas in the Arab world, the clash between the
     state and Islam remains intense. At best, Arab secularism is
     dysfunctional.

      Erdogan has not yet made up his mind on overthrowing Asad. He knows the
     process will be lengthy, painful, bloody and is bound to threaten
     Turkey's internal stability.  Erdogan is keeping his options open. He
     does not trust Asad because he knows he is insecure and politically
     crude. In addition, Asad has to answer to his family without whom he
     would lose his sense of political direction.

     Erdogan's decision to suspend military and business relations with
     Israel--in addition to lowering the level of their mutual diplomatic
     representation--will be followed up by a similar action against Syria's
     Asad. He chose to start with Israel in order to deny Asad the excuse of
     claiming that he is acting on behalf of Israel and the U.S. to isolate
     his regime. s Erdogan does not particularly care for Asad but he
     realizes that Syria is a very difficult country to govern. If
     overthrowing Asad could lead to stabilizing Syria, Erdogan would go for
     it, but he knows better. Syria after Asad will become a battleground for
     the region's country and will have a negative effect on Turkey itself.
","2011-09-08 20:24:37",1,"2012-03-15 20:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/119786_re-alpha-insight-turkey-syria-turkey-s-plans-for-syria-me1-.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
119853,"Re: G3/S3 - TURKEY/PNA - Turk warships to escort any Gaza aid
	vessels-Erdogan
","   we need to confirm this from Noble. Cyprus media is highly pushing this -
   including Greek Cypriot FM's visit to Israel. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Siree Allers\" <siree.allers@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, September 8, 2011 1:04:50 PM
   Subject: Re: G3/S3 - TURKEY/PNA - Turk warships to escort any Gaza
   aid        vessels-Erdogan

   Some OS with analysis, things simultaneously going on in Cyprus, etc.

   Noble Energy to ignore Turkish threats on Cyprus
   8 September 11 12:44, Adi Ben-Israel
   http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000680741

   Noble Energy Inc. (NYSE: NBL) says that it will push ahead with its
   Cypriot offshore exploratory well at Block 12, in spite of warnings from
   Turkey not to do so. Block 12 adjoins Israel's Leviathan field.

   The \"Cyprus Mail\" says Cyprus is stuck between a rock and a hard place in
   the Turkish-Israeli dispute. If President Demetris Christofias chooses to
   push ahead with drilling, he is essentially calling Turkeya**s bluff.
   Failure to do so effectively acknowledges Turkeya**s dominion over the
   island.

   \"Cyprus Mail\" says that the heightened tension between Israel and Turkey
   comes on the back of repeated warnings by Turkish officials against Cyprus
   drilling in its exclusive economic zone. While some commentators believe
   the feud with Israel may be used as a pretext to build up naval patrols in
   seas between Israel and Cyprus, at a time when both latter countries are
   discussing collaboration on the extraction and distribution of hydrocarbon
   deposits in their respective marine zones, the paper says that current
   diplomatic thinking in the region is that Turkey has more important issues
   to contend with than create serious problems for the island.

   Energy Service head Solon Kassinis told the \"Cyprus Mail\" that he expects
   drilling to start before October 1. Noble Energy will use the Homer
   Ferrington rig currently drilling in the Noa field offshore from Ashkelon
   in Israela**s exclusive economic zone.

   Kassinis said, a**I expected Turkey to bark but I dona**t think they will
   do anything because what wea**ve done is based on international law, and
   if they want to be considered a country that respects international law,
   when it has a network of (oil and gas) pipe lines, charging transit fees,
   how can it?\"

   Kassinis added that any fears from Noble Energy have been assuaged by the
   US Embassy in Nicosia which has told the company to go ahead and expedite
   the exploration process.

   Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com
   - on September 8, 2011

   A(c) Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2011

   Most of this we already know, but this is what other analysts are saying.
   The Cyprus econ angle at the bottom is interesting. I believe Peter was
   talking about it this morning. [sa]

   Analysis: Turkey's gunboat diplomacy makes waves in region
   ANKARA | Thu Sep 8, 2011 12:51pm EDT
   http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/08/us-turkey-israel-gamble-idUSTRE7871WZ20110908

   (Reuters) - Turkey's plan to flex its naval muscles in the eastern
   Mediterranean risks being perceived as an over-reaction in Ankara's
   dispute with former ally Israel and as an assertion of regional power that
   could alienate even its new Arab admirers.

   Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's ploy may fuel Western unease over Turkey's
   reliability as a NATO partner and its penchant for actions designed to
   court popularity in the Muslim world.

   Turkey's mix of economic growth and secular democracy under an Islamist
   government has fascinated Arab countries eager for a new model, but even
   those in the throes of popular uprisings may feel qualms if Ankara starts
   throwing its military weight about.

   Stung by Israel's refusal to apologize over last year's killing of nine
   Turks during an Israeli commando raid on an aid ship bound for Gaza,
   Erdogan said Turkish warships would be seen in waters where Israel's navy
   operates, raising the risk of a clash between the once close allies.

   Bolstered by a booming economy and unprecedented political stability at
   home, Turkey has seen its \"soft power\" rise in the region under Erdogan's
   AK Party, rooted in political Islam.

   Conservative on social and religious issues and liberal on economic ones,
   the AK government has cemented business ties in the Middle East, Central
   Asia and Africa and pursued a foreign policy of \"zero problems with
   neighbors\" -- a policy buffeted by the dispute with Israel and tensions
   with Syria.

   But threats to deploy warships show that Turkey, a prickly NATO member and
   European Union candidate, is now tempted to use its military power to push
   its interests in a changing region.

   \"Erdogan is taking a very aggressive stance to assert Turkey's status as a
   regional power instead of using the soft power we have seen until
   recently,\" said Gareth Jenkins, an Istanbul-based security analyst.

   \"There is a sense in the AK Party that Turkey is a major regional power
   and that the Mediterranean is its sphere of influence. But NATO and the
   West increasingly see Turkey as a loose cannon,\" he said.

   \"Turkey played its cards well in the past when it had good relations with
   everyone, but now it is playing them very badly.\"

   Jenkins said non-Arab Turkey behaving like a neighborhood bully would be
   regarded with grave concern by Arabs, who were subjects of the Ottoman
   empire for centuries.

   \"The Arabs distinguish between a Turkey that stands up to Israel and
   engages with them and a Turkey that wants to dominate the entire region,\"
   Jenkins said.

   Omer Taspinar, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington,
   said Turkey might be using Israel as a convenient punching bag following a
   series of diplomatic setbacks and domestic failures, including the Kurdish
   problem.

   Turkey's ties with Syria, a former friend, are near breaking point --
   President Bashar al-Assad has defied Turkish calls for him to end a bloody
   crackdown on protesters. Shi'ite Iran, another close ally of Turkey, has
   reacted frostily to Ankara's decision to host a NATO early-warning radar
   system.

   \"Turkey is going through a difficult period and Israel has given Erdogan
   the chance to demonstrate he is a strong leader in a strong country,\"
   Taspinar said.

   \"Turkey has experienced a period of economic growth and political
   stability and it feels very powerful. But they don't realize there is a
   price to pay for this saber-rattling.\"

   A larger presence of Turkish vessels in the eastern Mediterranean would be
   unsettling Greece and for the divided island of Cyprus as it eyes oil
   drilling exploration.

   Turkey says oil deals granted by the Greek Cypriot government, which
   represents the island in the European Union, are illegal as the borders of
   Cyprus remain undetermined while Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots
   pursue reunification talks.

   Turkey and Greece, also a NATO member, have a history of territorial
   disputes, and their navies were involved in a standoff in 1996 over an
   uninhabited islet in the Aegean Sea.

   BALANCE OF FORCES

   Turkey is NATO's second biggest military and its navy is considered to be
   far superior to that of Israel, although the Jewish state is widely
   assumed to have submarines that carry nuclear-tipped cruise missiles.

   Israel has expanded patrols in the eastern Mediterranean to enforce the
   Gaza blockade it says is needed to prevent arms smuggling to the
   Palestinian group Hamas and to deter any Lebanese Hezbollah militant
   attack on offshore gas platforms.

   Few Turkish analysts believe Turkey is planning to send frigates in open
   defiance of Israel's blockade of Gaza, which the United Nations has
   declared legal, but their mere presence in international waters not far
   from Gaza could risk a clash.

   It seems implausible that Turkey, as a NATO member, could get involved in
   actual hostilities with Israel.

   NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen said on Wednesday that the
   Turkish-Israeli relationship was a \"bilateral matter\" and urged the two to
   find ways to ease tensions.

   However, Erdogan's words that Turkish naval bases have \"the power and
   opportunity to provide escorts,\" suggesting that Ankara could put a future
   aid flotilla under its protection, set off alarm bells.

   \"They have created the conditions for another flotilla to challenge the
   blockade,\" said Henri Barkey, a Turkey expert at the Carnegie Endowment
   for International Peace in Washington.

   \"What is the Turkish navy going to do if another flotilla decides to go
   in? They would have to keep their promise and escort the flotilla. This
   puts the U.S. administration in a terrible position.\"

   President Barack Obama's administration is keen to smooth ties between its
   two most important allies in the Middle East and U.S. diplomats are
   working in private to heal the rift.

   CYPRUS

   Some Turkish and Israeli analysts say that Turkey's motive is not to seek
   a showdown with Israel over Gaza, but to build up a naval presence between
   Cyprus and Israel to create a sense of menace and scare investors away
   from the gas fields there.

   Turkey has been chafing at Cypriot-Israeli energy deals, and the tensions
   with Israel could enable Ankara to send a message without making explicit
   threats.

   \"Turkey's emphasis on freedom of navigation is also connected to the
   assessment that in the eastern Mediterranean there are natural gas
   deposits beyond what have already been discovered,\" said Gallia
   Lindenstrauss of the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv
   University.

   Sinan Ulgen, from the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign
   Policy Studies, said Erdogan, known as a temperamental leader, is driven
   by public opinion.

   Erdogan, who won a third consecutive term in office last June, has become
   a hero among Muslims for his stance against Israel and in favor of the
   Palestinians.

   \"It is very dangerous for a country when it starts to believe its own
   propaganda,\" Jenkins said.

   On 9/8/11 12:53 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     Sure but hitting the MM is very different from taking on a convoy
     escorted by battleships. The tactics come into play once we know what
     are the intentions of the Turks and how the Israelis intend to respond -
     both of which are political decisions.

     On 9/8/11 1:50 PM, Nate Hughes wrote:

       they hit the Mari Marmara in international waters. Israeli doctrine
       dictates hitting them at night under cover of darkness. This entails
       hitting them the last night before they hit Gaza waters, since you can
       cross the entire span of Gaza waters in a matter of hours even in a
       slow ship.

       It is the announced intention to run the blockade that Israel has used
       for justification in the past, not the physical act of doing so.

       Dealing with this while Turkish naval escorts are involved will
       profoundly complicate the tactical scenario and make any advantage
       Israel can bring to bear, like its greater proficiency at night
       operations, only more important.

       On 9/8/11 12:46 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

         There are two separate types of waters involved here. Clearly
         international and those off the Gaza coast. I don't think the
         Israelis will do anything in the former. The latter is where it
         becomes tricky. Since Gaza is neither a state entity nor a part of
         any state, there is a huge debate over the status of its territorial
         waters. Israel has a naval presence there. So the question is
         whether the Turks would be willing to venture that far. In any case,
         watch for an Israeli reaction to this in terms of what they would do
         to counter Turkish moves.

         On 9/8/11 1:40 PM, Nate Hughes wrote:

           keep an eye out for a specific number of aid ships and their
           size/capacity as well as specifics of any escorts that might
           compose the convoy.

           need to be pushing sources on what Turkish rules of engagement
           might be. Escorting unarmed ships safely through a proficient navy
           blockade -- especially when they know you're coming -- is no small
           task.

           This looks like diary to me.

           On 9/8/11 12:32 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

             like we discussed in the blue sky, they could be really serious
             this time.  let's see if the turks have (re) grown a pair.  this
             is your time, Pasha!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: \"Marc Lanthemann\" <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
             To: alerts@stratfor.com
             Sent: Thursday, September 8, 2011 12:29:55 PM
             Subject: G3/S3 - TURKEY/PNA - Turk warships to escort any Gaza
             aid        vessels-Erdogan

             we've heard about this before, but this is from Erdogan himself.
             Turk warships to escort any Gaza aid vessels-Erdogan
             Thu Sep 8, 2011 4:49pm GMT

              http://af.reuters.com/article/egyptNews/idAFL5E7K838620110908?feedType=RSS&feedName=egyptNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FAfricaEgyptNews+%28News+%2F+Africa+%2F+Egypt+News%29&utm_content=Google+Reader&sp=true

             Print | Single Page
             [-] Text [+]

             CAIRO, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Turkish warships will escort any
             Turkish aid vessels to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, Prime
             Minister Tayyip Erdogan said in remarks broadcast on Al Jazeera
             television on Thursday.

             Erdogan also said that Turkey had taken steps to stop Israel
             from unilaterally exploiting natural resources from the eastern
             Mediterranean, according to Al Jazeera's Arabic translation of
             excerpts of the interview, which was conducted in Turkish.
             (Reporting by Omar Fahmy; Writing by Sami Aboudi; Editing by
             Louise Ireland)

 --
 Siree Allers
 ADP

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-08 20:10:02",1,"2012-03-10 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/119853_re-g3-s3-turkey-pna-turk-warships-to-escort-any-gaza-aid.html","emre.dogru@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
120362,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT -- Several issues about Brazil - BR 707
","   regarding the Brasiguayos and Brazil breaking away from the tradition of
   avoiding hard decisions...
   Can you elaborate what type of decisions he was referring to?  What course
   of action Brazil might take and what would be the tipping point?  I know
   that up until now Lugo hasn't been able to control the issue in Paraguay
   and there is still quite a bit of tensions between locals
   (Paraguayan/guarani) and Brazilians, those of Brazilian descent.  Would
   Brazil need to act before Lugo is replaced in 2013?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Paulo Gregoire\" <paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com>
   To: \"watchofficer\" <watchofficer@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 7, 2011 3:49:27 PM
   Subject: INSIGHT -- Several issues about Brazil - BR 707

   CODE: BR 707
   ATTRIBUTION: Confederation Partner
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Chief analyst of a webiste in Brazil especialized in
   Brazilian military intelligence and defense policy
   PUBLICATION: if useful
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: none
   SOURCE HANDLER: PAULO

   I had lunch with our confed partner. We talked about several issues, I
   will start from some of the issues that Karen had requested about. 
   Source said that the govt will have to import ethanol because due to the
   bad sugar cane harvest and that sugar prices went up many sugar mills
   preferred selling sugar than using it for ethanol. The govt had also to
   decrease the level of ethanol in the gasoline mixture because there is a
   lack of ethanol in the domestic market. The govt, however, has decided to
   give tax exemption  to sugar mills and decrease the cost in order to use
   the sugar cane for the ethanol production. He thinks this is temporary,
   this shortage of ethanol occurred because of the bad harvest and high
   price of sugar in the international market, but he believes the govt will
   continue supporting the ethanol production and next year if everything
   occurs fine with the sugar cane harvest they will not have problems in
   supplying the domestic market and then also be able to export to other
   markets.
   The relationship between Rousseff and the business community is good. He
   said that for the bankers the interest rate of 12% is still very good for
   them to make pretty good money and the big businesses in Brazil tend to
   support more inflationary policies as they want to sell and grow. They
   were the ones who have been pressuring the govt to decrease interest
   rates.
   Source talked to the Argentine Defense Minister Arturo Puricelli about the
   possible cooperation projects between Brazil and Argentina. Source said
   the most advanced one is the production of the KC 390 airplane which parts
   of the airplane are being produced in Cordoba Argentina and the rest in
   Brazil by Embraer. Source said that Argentina is interesting in
   participating in the production of the armored vehicle Guarani, but Brazil
   said that not it is too late as this Brazilian along with the company
   Iveco are already in the latest stages in the development of this tank.
   Another joint production that that is making progress between both
   countries is the Gaucho vehicle, which source said that it is a piece of
   shit but it will be good enough to sell it and make some money. The joint
   space agency is something both countries have an interested in moving
   forward. 
   One interesting thing we discussed was BrazilA's relationship with the
   China. I  asked him why in his opinion there are so many people in the
   press, politicians, academia and even some businesses in Brazil who tend
   to call China a strategic partner if Brazil mostly sells iron ore to them
   and also have conflicting interests like an enlargement of the UN security
   council that could include Brazil and Japan. Source told me I am not
   saying anything, just look at the my hand, his hand was showing money. I
   asked him if the Chinese were bribing people to say nice things about
   China, source did not say anything just nodded his head. 
   I also talked to source about AmorimA's relationship with the armed forces
   and some possible civil-military tension. Source said that the beginning
   of AmorimA's bad relationship with the Armed Forces was when Amorim was
   foreign minister and the govt sent a bill to congress saying that if there
   was any attack to a Brazilian company abroad that could be perceived as an
   attack to the Brazilian territory as well. Amorim accused the military
   people of influencing the govt to send that bill and went public to accuse
   the armed forces. The person who actually told Lula to send that bill to
   Congress at the time was the current President Rousseff and the armed
   forces had asked Amorim to apologize to them. Since then the relationship
   between Amorim has always been bad with the armed forces. Now he is the
   minister of defense and the military people do not like it. I asked then
   if he thought there was going to be some sort of tension. Source said look
   the generals do not want trouble they wanna enjoy their fat salaries and
   have a good life, they do not want to confront the govt, the colonels want
   to be where the generals are and for that they have to play the game, and
   the lower ranks do not know where they stand and just follow the flow.
   Plus, society in general does not support the armed forces so there is
   nothing the military people can do about.
   Source also talked about the Brasiguaios, he said that this is an
   increasingly hot issue and he thinks this is the only issue that he sees
   Brazil breaking away from its tradition of avoiding hard decisions because
   the govt realizes that although they have a good relationship with Lugo,
   Lugo is too weak to impose any sort of control. I even joked saying that a
   possible conflict between Argentina and the UK over the
   Malvinas wouldn A't be an issue Brazil would get involved and he said no.
   He said Brazil would give some sort of rhetorical support and some
   logistical support as well but not really. Source thinks that the issue of
   Brasiguaios would be the main one, which Brazil could break away from its
   tradition of avoiding hard decisions. 
   Source also said that the federal police is increasing the number they
   have been monitoring, now they monitor 40 thousand people. He said that
   the workerA's party has control over the main guys at the federal police
   and use that to monitor their political enemies. 
","2011-09-07 22:57:06",1,"2012-03-13 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/120362_re-alpha-insight-several-issues-about-brazil-br-707-.html","allison.fedirka@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
120909,"[alpha] INSIGHT - LIBYA/ALGERIA - Q seeking refuge in Algeria - ME1
","   SOURCE: Sub-source via ME1
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Algerian diplomat via ME1
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: C
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3-4 - could be a cover-up as Algeria is under pressure
   for backing Q
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   The source confirms the news about Muammar Qaddafi's attempt to seek
   refuge in Algeria. Algerian president Abdulaziz Boutafliqa refused to
   answer Qaddafi's repeated phone calls.  Qaddafi's daughter and first wife
   were allowed into Algeria after Libya's provisional council had waived its
   objection to the matter. Algerian intelligence have determined the
   location of Qaddafi in the town of Bani Walid, which lies about 100 miles
   southwest of Tripoli. He says the Algerians passed the information to
   British intelligence. The task of chasing Qaddafi has been entrusted to
   special British units. He is confident the British will eventually get
   him.

   Qaddafi will be gunned down sooner than laer.The matter is pending
   securing the approval of the elders of Warfala tribe who are providing
   Qaddafi with sanctuary. The matter with Warfala will have to be resolved
   peacefully since it is Libya's largest tribe, and also because many of its
   young men have fought alongside the forces of the provisional council.
   Algeria has a vested interest in the elimination of Qaddafi in order to
   prevent him from allying himself with al-Qaeda in al-Maghreb.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
","2011-09-01 17:07:49",1,"2012-07-24 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/120909_-alpha-insight-libya-algeria-q-seeking-refuge-in-algeria-me1.html","ben.preisler@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
121087,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-USG contractor helping Libyan opposition-LY700
","   Any way he could be more specific about what that hand entails?

   We know USG has had people there for months, but anything more specific
   would be helpful. (Numbers, locations, groups they're working with, groups
   they're wary of due to Islamist connections, etc.)

   On 9/12/11 1:17 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     Source Code: LY700
     PUBLICATION: No, for background only
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Govt security contractor on US Govt assignment in
     Libya
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: Still testing
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     You guys lending the opposition a hand?

     Certainly are. They need it. At the request of a USG committee and the
     rebels. Been there since no-fly.
","2011-09-12 20:27:38",1,"2012-03-19 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/121087_re-alpha-insight-usg-contractor-helping-libyan-opposition.html","bayless.parsley@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
121265,"Re: discussion - the Greek angle to the unfolding Turkish-Israel drama
","   i just really don't see the point of terming a country's actions as
   \"asinine and inept.\"  that completely goes against our methodology of
   empathetic analysis.  the Turks are making a lot of mostly empty gestures
   right now, but that's a function of constraints. we have to explain the
   logic behind them, but dismissing these moves as incompetence does not get
   us anywhere and actually detracts from our ability to forecast and
   understand Turkey's actions.

   And as Rodger has already argued, there are plenty of examples of this.
   let's get back to the core issue that started this discussion. are we
   seeing any signs of Greece trying to use the Cyprus issue as a distraction
   from the financial crisis?  If not or not yet, then let's give this
   discussion a rest and continue monitoring for signs that this could be
   developing.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Emre Dogru\" <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, September 13, 2011 7:43:03 AM
   Subject: Re: discussion - the Greek angle to the unfolding Turkish-Israel
   drama

   in response to your first question - i think turkish civvies will not be
   allowed to do stupid things anymore.
   but still naval forces commitment in eastern med is a geopol move. even
   though it's not a credible threat for now, it shows turkey's maritime
   expansion route. and it makes sense b/c you've russia as the biggest
   arrestor in the black sea. greece is not an issue anymore but can still
   create head ache in the aegean. so, eastern Med is a natural sea expansion
   route for turkey (historically too).
   we need to watch for any sign of turkey trying to do the same in crimea.
   (this is, btw, is in track with davutoglu's book as well as our turkey
   monograph).

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Peter Zeihan\" <zeihan@stratfor.com>
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Tuesday, September 13, 2011 7:20:39 AM
   Subject: Re: discussion - the Greek angle to the unfolding Turkish-Israel
   drama

   just to point out how insane the turkish position is -- can you imagine if
   the US committed naval forces to locations where American civvies doing
   extraordinarily stupid things in violation of a country's laws?

   just how asinine and inept do you think that would appear to people
   anywhere else in the world

   that's the nice little lonely corner that turkey is rabidly sticky-tacking
   itself into

   On 9/12/11 4:28 PM, Emre Dogru wrote:

     i disagree.
     turkey does not claim any right in israel/gaza. it says that israel
     cannot kill turkish civilians in international waters, though this is
     prob just a PR move. even if it's not, it's totally in line with Turkish
     geopolitical strategy.
     in cyprus, however, you've an american company operating with full
     international authority. i know turkey does not recognize cyprus, but no
     country other than turkey recognizes turkish cyprus, which makes it
     impossible for turkey to push its claim.
     i also don't get why greece would do that. it faces so many constraints
     that you know better than i do. the \"distraction\" argument would not
     work if you can't pay salaries of your workers. 
     the only way that this could create a problem is turkey taking advantage
     of greece's weakness and starts its own nat gas drilling operations off
     cyprus, which it cannot technically. so, turkey just makes sure that
     greek cypriots do not make progress, which i doubt they will soon.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Peter Zeihan\" <zeihan@stratfor.com>
     To: analysts@stratfor.com
     Sent: Monday, September 12, 2011 1:57:40 PM
     Subject: Re: discussion - the Greek angle to the unfolding
     Turkish-Israel drama

     er...turkey doesn't have a basis to claim anything whatsoever in
     israel/gaza

     in cyprus it doesn't recognize the existance of greek cyprus at all so
     at least in turkish law there is standing for action

     cyrpiot issues are far nearer and dearer to the turkish heart, identity
     and pocketbook than anything in gaza and traditionally the bar for
     action has been much lower for intervening in cypriot issues than
     israeli/pal issues

     On 9/12/11 1:51 PM, Emre Dogru wrote:

       Turkish and international media has been speculating this since one
       week or so.
       I don't get why you think \"so if there is an isreali crisis, there
       will already have been a cypriot crisis\"
       these are very different situations. turkey has no basis to claim
       right off cyprus. in the case of gaza, turkey is just saying that
       turkish warships will not allow israel to attack aid ships within the
       international waters.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: \"Peter Zeihan\" <zeihan@stratfor.com>
       To: analysts@stratfor.com
       Sent: Monday, September 12, 2011 12:38:08 PM
       Subject: Re: discussion - the Greek angle to the unfolding
       Turkish-Israel drama

       i'd not rule that out, but that's not what i was getting at

       my point is that IF the turks decide that there are military options
       to be used in the gaza situation, then they will have already decided
       that there are military options to be used in the Cypriot situation

       so if there is an isreali crisis, there will already have been a
       cypriot crisis

       (and Greece can cash in on a Cypriot crisis)

       On 9/12/11 10:29 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

         Are you suggesting that Greece will start a conflict with Turkey to
         get over its sovereign debt crisis?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Peter Zeihan\" <zeihan@stratfor.com>
         To: \"Analysts\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
         Sent: Monday, September 12, 2011 10:18:42 AM
         Subject: discussion - the Greek angle to the unfolding
         Turkish-Israel drama

         Greek Premier George Papandreou stated today that a**The
         exploitation of natural resources by Cyprus and Israel is their
         sovereign right.a** The PM is speaking up against the Turkish moves
         to limit Cypriot drilling activities in the eastern Mediterranean.

         In all the (increasingly serious) Turkish-Israeli hubub the world
         has lost sight of the fact that while Turkey may see an opportunity
         in a crisis with Turkey, it sees Cyprus as a non-state. The
         threshold for action -- military or otherwise -- against Cyprus is
         much lower than it is against Turkey. Not to mention the fact that
         Israel would loooove to nudge any potential clash into Cyprus to
         save its own butt.

         I think its time for us to lay out how Greece has managed to exist
         in the modern era -- by leveraging its location. Modern Greece only
         came into existence because the Europeans (esp the Brits) backed it
         against the Ottomans. It then only maintained its independnece
         during the COld War because the Americans supported it against the
         Soviets. Since 1990 it has had no one but cheap European credit
         supporting it, and now that has disappeared as well. A conflict with
         Turkey -- with possible Greek backers including Israel, the US and
         the EU -- may prove to be an option for Greece to get out of their
         pickle.

         --
         --
         Emre Dogru
         STRATFOR  
         Cell: +90.532.465.7514
         Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
         emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
         www.stratfor.com

       --
       --
       Emre Dogru
       STRATFOR  
       Cell: +90.532.465.7514
       Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
       emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
       www.stratfor.com

     --
     --
     Emre Dogru
     STRATFOR  
     Cell: +90.532.465.7514
     Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
     emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
     www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-13 15:43:53",1,"2012-03-08 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/121265_re-discussion-the-greek-angle-to-the-unfolding-turkish.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
122002,"Labor Day Review of Where We Are
","   THIS IS FOR INTERNAL STRATFOR USE ONLY. DO NOT SHARE THIS DOCUMENT OR
   DISCUSS IT OUTSIDE OF STRATFOR.

    

    

    

   I hope you've all had a great Labor Day Weekend. This Labor Day marks a
   turning point in Stratfor's history, and I wanted to share my thoughts
   with you and some plans. It used to be, not so long ago, that we were so
   small that information flowed to all hands by itself.  It is hard for me
   to recognize sometimes that this is no longer true, so I will provide an
   extensive review of where we are and what is coming.  Some of this will be
   old hat to some of you; some of this will be new.  This is an attempt to
   start getting everyone on the same page. 

    

   Historically, Stratfor was unique in a number of ways. First, we accepted
   no advertising. Second, we charged for our subscriptions. Finally, we were
   revenue driven. We build the company from our revenues.  This kept us
   independent, it kept us free to experiment-and at times fail, it kept us
   tight. We were reaching a point where we our revenues did not keep up with
   our needs and market opportunities.

    

   Shea Morenz provided us with two opportunities.  First, he made an
   investment in Stratfor designed to give us the capital needed to build our
   staff and our marketing.  Second, he proposed a new venture, StratCap,
   which would allow us to utilize the intelligence we were gathering about
   the world in a new but related venue-an investment fund. Where we had
   previously advised other hedge funds. We would now have our own, itself
   fully funded by Shea.  Shea invested over $2 million in Stratfor and more
   in StratCap. In return he took a seat on Stratfor's board and a minority
   position in Stratfor, whose control remains in Don's and my hands.  It was
   a good deal for Stratfor, a good deal for StratCap, and since the deal
   closed officially on August 1, we now have the task of doing what we all
   want-building Stratfor and StratCap.

    

   Our cash position is not spectacular by any means, but we have the
   resources to build the kind of company we want, when that investment is
   combined with our revenues.  With cash under control we need to address
   the next problem-people. We all are doing more than our share to keep
   things going.  In some ways that good but it can be overdone, and we are
   overdoing it throughout the company.  Our job now is to expand the team. 
   Money is one element of that, but relieving the pressure we are under in a
   way increases the pressure, because we have to recruit and train new
   people. So it gets harder before it gets easier, and that's the point we
   are at.

    

   Let's divide our departments into two groups.  There are those departments
   that must train their own people, particularly in intelligence beyond the
   normal training needed by new employees.  We do that because no one thinks
   of the world like Stratfor, and that means that we can't hire people from
   other organizations, or at least not without a major training programming,
   which in our experience lasts up to two years.  Then there are departments
   that don't have this burden and that can hire people readily from other
   organizations.  Both groups of departments must grow and train, but the
   burden of training is much heavier in the Intelligence departments that
   train their staff from the bottom up than on other departments.  It is
   important for everyone to understand this distinction.  It is not that
   people in Intelligence are more important or more valuable than those in
   other departments.  It just means they face different problems in growing
   and that if they don't grow, other things can't happen.

    

   Now let's consider the tasks ahead.  First and foremost-and always first
   and foremost-we must be the world's leading private intelligence
   organization (and one of the finest intelligence organizations, period)
   and we must sell our intelligence through publishing.  Our current staff
   has done an outstanding job, but they are thin and sometimes we are weak. 
   We must do better in economics, and we must make certain that no AOR
   depends on only one person. There are lots of things that are needed. 

    

   Second, we are committed to supporting StratCap, a private fund that will
   begin operations some time this coming spring. What StratCap will do is
   use our Stratfor's intelligence and analysis to trade in a range of
   geopolitical instruments, particularly government bonds, currency and the
   like in the world's emerging markets.  Shea Morenz initiated this idea and
   leads it.  At the root of StratCap is a simple idea: Stratfor should put
   its money where its mouth is.  It does not conflict with Stratfor, but is
   an extension of it.

    

   Do not think of StratCap as an outside organization.  It will be integral
   to Stratfor, in the sense that much of the intelligence we are developing
   is useful to Stratcap as well as Stratfor.  The organizational and legal
   distinctions are real and important, but StratCap is linked to Stratfor
   intellectually and contractually.  It will be useful to you if, for the
   sake of convenience, you think of it as another aspect of Stratfor and
   Shea as another executive in Stratfor. 

    

   Let me also add that it is our commitment that all our team will benefit
   if StratCap is successful through some mechanism to be defined. This isn't
   an attempt to get you to work harder for the same money.  But that
   discussion must wait until the legal and administrative relationships of
   StratCap and its relation to Stratfor are worked out and reviewed by
   something called \"compliance officers,\" people who make certain that we do
   not violate any regulations. 

    

   From that point of view, StratCap is something under construction.  You
   can see Shea Morenz hammering away building it in the corner office he
   took from Darryl. In the world of StratCap, corner offices are marketing
   tools.  This points to the fact that StratCap will be building its own
   staff and they come from a different world from Stratfor with a different
   culture.  That said, we have a great deal to learn from StratCap to
   strengthen Stratfor's understanding of economics and it has much to learn
   from us.  We are already working on mock portfolios and trades, testing
   our skills.  Kendra, Korena, Melissa, Jen, Peter, Meredith and myself are
   all involved in this along with Shea and Alfredo, a trader that makes us
   easy to understand compared to him. It's going pretty well in fact, but
   supporting StratCap will be a cultural and intellectual challenge.  It's
   important now to recognize that it is already here, growing and we will
   accommodate to it and it to us.

    

   I want to emphasize is that there is neither a legal, intellectual nor
   moral tension between Stratfor and StratCap.  We will continue to publish
   what we think is true.  StratCap is interested in our broad ideas but
   mostly in the obscure nuggets picked up by intelligence that are usually
   of little interest to our general readers.  My pledge to you and our
   readers is that our publication will remain untouched by StratCap-because
   they are merely different sides of the same coin, intelligence.

    

   We have also been asked to help the United States Marine Corps and other
   government intelligence organizations to teach them how Stratfor does what
   it does, and train them in becoming government Stratfors. We are beginning
   this project by preparing a three-year forecast for the Commandant of the
   Corps.  This is a double honor for us.  First, the professional
   intelligence community is acknowledging us as being the gold standard of
   intelligence.  Second, we are being asked to use our honest and unhedged
   views to support what is for Stratfor-an American company-its homeland. 
   Again, as with StratCap, there is no tension. We will tell the U.S.
   government precisely what we tell our readers and we think ourselves.  Our
   first lesson to the government is that intelligence organizations exist to
   make decision makers uncomfortable, not to make them feel better about
   their decisions. I didn't come this far to compromise on that. 

    

   Add to this that the fact that Turkish Chamber of Commerce (not its name
   but close enough; its name is TUSIAD) asked us to preside over their 40th
   anniversary celebration, and that the Turkish Foreign Minister and Energy
   Minister will speak at the event, and you can see both our global
   recognition and our commitment to speak the same words to every country.
   We can serve the world from the same platform.

    

   So think about it.  We have three triumphs.  First, our publication is now
   read by almost 300,000 people (counting our corporate accounts).  We are a
   major force around the world.  Second, Shea-a guy who has played with the
   big boys at Goldman Sachs, asked us to play in the majors with him. 
   Third, the USMC has asked for our help, and with them others in the
   defense community.  These are three validations of us that are precious to
   me.

    

   Obviously, there is no way in the world that we can do all these
   things-plus the endless little projects that we must do all the time-with
   the staff we have.  And given that we take two years to train new
   analysts, and all of this is on us now-we have an urgent problem.  We
   can't punt opportunities at hand and continue at our current size. Nor can
   we easily expand.  So we will therefore expand with difficulty.  There is
   no choice.  Our Analyst Development Program is the means where we train
   people and find new analysts as well as find some staff for publishing
   (watch officers, monitors, operations center and writers all under Jenna
   Colley). We will have the largest group of ADPs ever this fall, starting
   next week.  About 13 people at last count will be joining us.  This is a
   huge percentage of the number of analysts on staff. Ideally all will work
   out well and our crisis will be over.  That's unlikely but our crisis will
   be mitigated by January 1. Doing this will put a huge burden on
   Intelligence, who must do their work and also train these people, but
   there is no choice.  This is the year when we break out.  I promise to
   work side by side with the team in training and growing he organization. 
   I also promise that if we succeed, we will become one of the most
   significant and prestigious foreign policy publications in the world-and
   those that made it happen will be known.  I know there are questions about
   by-lines. You know my hesitation, but we will figure out together someway
   to make sure that the glory is shared.

    

   Intelligence is divided into three parts.  There is Strategic Intelligence
   (under Rodger assisted by Reva) that is organized geographically.  There
   is Tactical Intelligence (under Stick, assisted by Nate Hughes) that is
   organized thematically-organized crime, cyber-warfare, military,
   terrorism, security, financial flows, supply chain and so on.  There is
   then intelligence gathering, under Meredith, assisted by Jen Richmond that
   is building sources from around the world.  All of them must grow
   dramatically.  The first two will grow mostly out of the ADP pool. The
   latter will be done by extensive work in the field.  But it is the Writers
   Group that is making the most impressive evolution.  Under Jenna (and Tim
   French and Maverick) it has moved into the heart of intelligence, writing
   as well as editing.  Everyone should watch this team. They are pioneering
   things the world hasn't seen yet. Along with Watch Officers, monitors and
   the operations center, this unit is translating intelligence into product
   with increasing effectiveness.  It is now organizationally mature and
   ready to both grow and sustain the growth of Intelligence.

    

   This growth will put a tremendous strain on other departments. Leticia has
   done a tremendous job in Human Resources, but the job has grown much
   greater than she can possibly manage.  Just the process of getting visas
   for new ADPs is overwhelming, and at least half of these come from other
   countries.  We have selected an HR consulting firm to support her in the
   coming months and other solutions will be found to sustain this. HR will
   become more effective in the next months. In addition, we are retaining a
   law firm to create a policy for Stratfor on Foreign Corrupt Practices
   Act.  I don't plan to do the perp walk and I don't want anyone here doing
   it either.  We need some clear guidelines on the law and are getting them,
   particularly as we ramp our intelligence capability. Similarly finance has
   kept us all going and similarly it has to expand, although it is a shade
   less pressured than HR is.

    

   IT faces a huge challenge.  Traditional IT organizations focus on the
   development of new capabilities for a company and sustaining complex
   systems. At Stratfor, the focus must also be on sustaining basic systems
   like phones, email, configuring and fixing laptops and cell phones and so
   on-the basic tools that make our work possible and which are a particular
   challenge in a global company operating 24-7.  That gives our IT
   department a different shape and tempo than exists in other companies.
   With this class of ADPs, 24-7 will become very real.  IT is under pressure
   to maintain its focus on improving the web site and corporate systems but
   has a special and intense mission of supporting a growing, global company
   at the ground level, and the pressure is never going to be greater than
   now with all the new people coming on board in all departments. Creating
   an IT department that fits our peculiar needs will be Frank's challenge.

    

   I want to also point to two departments that are performing extremely
   well.  Customer Service at Stratfor is among the best in the business.  We
   daily get emails praising their work. John Gibbons has done an amazing job
   keeping this going.  More subscribers mean more customer service of
   course.

    

   Also to be mentioned is he on-line marketing team who has just done
   something very impressive. There is usually a slump in subscriptions after
   a Red Alert, and there was one, but in a matter of weeks they pitched in
   and turned it around with some strange and wonderful campaigns.  They have
   broken their forecast in spite of a pretty quiet world.  Its amazing the
   kind of ads that work!

    

   Let's turn to marketing and sales and the future.  Our readership is now
   about 5 percent of the Economist when we exclude corporate (not sure why
   we exclude corporate but that's what we do).  That means that we have
   probably saturated a good part of the early adopters market-the early
   adopters who love us and have built us-and put up with our weaknesses.
   It's kind of like people who supported Apple in its dark days, putting up
   with promising but not yet mature computers.  If you haven't read,
   \"Crossing the Chasm,\" a rare business book that is actually helpful,
   please take a look at it.  It will explain much of what we are trying to
   achieve in marketing.

    

   We have no choice but to grow.  If we stay this size someone larger, with
   deep pockets will notice the market we have created and come in after us. 
   We won't be able to compete.  The only protection is market share, to be
   so dominant a force in the market that no one challenges us and our own
   deep pockets.  For this we must grow revenue and that means readership. 
   The place we must grow is in the mainstream.  I don't mean by mainstream
   CNN. I mean readers who are interested in what we have, but aren't
   fanatics, groupies and wannabes.  These people have higher standards in
   production values, and less forgiveness for mistakes. They don't buy the
   mystique.  They buy the publication. That's where most of our customers
   are and where we have to go.

    

   Obviously this is one of the reasons we need more people.  It is also the
   reason we must deliver in new ways.  Grant Perry and his team are looking
   at ways to create a unique, Stratfor video culture. I see this myself as
   consisting of much longer and serious conversations among analysts
   moderated by an anchor, documentaries, briefings. Perhaps our Sitreps
   should all be delivered via video and audio (there is I think huge demand
   for audio products in cars, or so many people tell me).  All of this will
   evolve in unexpected directions under Grant, Colin, Brian, Andrew and
   others who will join them. This is part of our own evolution into the
   mainstream, on our own terms, with our own voice. What you see above, by
   the way, are simply my own ideas, not fully thought out.  Whatever Grant
   and his team produce will be uniquely Stratfor.

    

   Other than that we shall see.  What markets we will enter, and how we
   enter them is not yet known. We do know that the current Stratfor product,
   however enhanced, will be our only offering.  We will not be developing
   new products for markets. 

    

   We have hired a consultant, Mark Stacey, who will guide this process.  We
   will also be bringing in a consulting firm to do survey research and
   interviews to teach us more about our current readers, readers who won't
   buy us, and readers who would buy us if they had heard of us.  Our choice
   was between hiring staff to give us a plan or hiring consultants to give
   us a plan and then hiring permanent staff to execute it.  The latter is
   the safest-we avoid a staff without the skill to do what we need whom
   instead craft a plan to do what they already know.  In addition to this
   initiative, we are participating in the University of Texas Business
   School program where a team of graduate students will essentially parallel
   the work of our outside consultants, giving us a double check on the
   data. 

    

   The goal here is to have a marketing and sales plan in place for execution
   on January 1.  From where I sit, the biggest challenge we have is that too
   many people have never heard of us.  At a meeting I can encounter someone
   who has subscribed for years and next to him is a person in the same
   industry that has never heard of us.  It is difficult selling to people
   who have never heard of us.  So our challenge-before trying to sell to
   them-is to increase awareness of who we are.  This is called branding and
   it's different from selling.  It is the precursor.  We will start with
   branding in January. That means there will be marketing people around
   asking many questions in the coming months, frequently the same ones.
   Please work with all of them.  In the end, we will have a plan with a high
   likelihood of success.

    

   Parallel to all of this, the executives (without Don, Steve Feldhaus or
   myself-the board members) are going through a planning process of their
   own, coordinated by Frank Ginac.  Not being on it (and not wanting to be
   informed of what is going on as there should be yet another set of eyes on
   things other than mine) I can't tell you what they are doing.  However,
   the deal we have on this is that as CEO, I will proceed with implementing
   my own plans that I've outlined here, and will consider their proposals
   when I see them. If the decision point is past when they make their
   recommendation on a subject, the recommendation will not be considered. 
   If they come in with recommendations before decision points, their
   recommendations will be taken very seriously.  This allows the company to
   move forward and an alternative planning model to be brought on line when
   it is ready.

    

   The company has become too large and complex for any one person to know
   what is going on.  I am moving (with difficulty) from the role of an early
   entrepreneur, knowing everything going on and getting involved in it, to
   the CEO of a company at the inflexion point.   The inflexion point is the
   point all companies dream of and few achieve-when they start really taking
   off.  This is a great point and a dangerous one.  Unless the company
   changes the way it does things, inflexion aborts.  I am trying to change
   what I do.

    

   There are some things that have to remain my responsibility.  Building
   Intelligence and publishing and particularly training new staff are things
   that I should oversee.  Building the intelligence capabilities of the
   company along with Meredith is also my responsibility.  Creating new
   models to support Stratcap and helping to train Stratcap in the
   capabilities of Stratfor is mine. Overseeing our training of the Marine
   Corps is something I want to do.  Kendra will be my deputy for this, but
   this leaves a large load on me.

    

   Along with this, for better or worse, I am the public face of Stratfor. 
   My speeches and travels build the brand, create intelligence
   opportunities, and give me a clearer vision of how the world works.  I
   will be doing a lot of traveling to do these things, and I will combine
   them with the Geopolitical Journeys concept that seems to have hit a
   nerve.  During my travels I will be doing articles, videos and writing a
   book based on those journeys, on the world's borderlands.  Between that
   and making contacts for Stratfor and StratCap, I will be busy.

    

   Along with that load is going to be setting the broad direction of the
   company.  Through long and sometimes painful experience I have learned
   that ultimate responsibility can be delegated but not abandoned.  It's an
   old military principle that applies here. I have a vision for Stratfor and
   while I will delegate, I will not turn over responsibility because I
   can't.

    

   That means that we will need an evolving management structure.  I've asked
   Don who is formally President of Stratfor to join Darryl in both the day
   to day management of the company and in what we still call \"the business
   side.\"  One day we will simply be one company, but right now we are still
   two sides of one company.  Don and Darryl will now manage that side,
   implementing our plans there.  I will not disappear, but become
   intermittent on daily management but deeply focused on intelligence.

    

   One of the other things I must do is prepare a succession plan.  In some
   parts that are well developed, I already have that plan.  In other parts,
   we have to build an organization to have a succession plan.  But it is my
   intention that Stratfor survive me (no, I'm not feeling poorly and can
   still kick your ass).  I want to build this into the world's finest
   intelligence service, private and free to speak its mind.  I see this as
   the most lasting contribution I can make, and I am serious about making
   sure Stratfor goes on.

    

   We are all at the inflexion point where the level of effort temporarily
   soars until new resources are brought on line.  They couldn't have been
   staged in earlier because there weren't resources available.  But now they
   can't wait, because the moment will pass and perhaps never return.  For
   everything there is a \"now.\"  This is now.

    

   I ask only one specific thing of all of you. If you don't understanding
   anything here; if you want to learn more; if something worries you and
   your boss can't clear it up, come directly to me. I will be available
   until the last week of September when I go with others to Turkey.  Please,
   please, please, do not engage in a round of paranoia or speculation based
   on lack of data.  Just set a time to see me and let's discuss it. 
   StratFantasy (a new term) is I really believe the greatest danger to
   success that we have face.

    

   This is a long review, but many have said they'd like to know where we are
   and what we are doing.  This is about as comprehensive as I can get. There
   will be more such reports.  There are no short versions about where we are
   and what we are doing.

    

    

   OH YES-THIS IS FOR INTERNAL STRATFOR USE ONLY. DO NOT SHARE THIS DOCUMENT
   OR DISCUSS IT OUTSIDE OF STRATFOR.

    

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   STRATFOR

   221 West 6th Street

   Suite 400

   Austin, Texas 78701

    

   Phone: 512-744-4319

   Fax: 512-744-4334

    
","2011-09-05 21:55:16",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/122002_labor-day-review-of-where-we-are-.html","gfriedman@stratfor.com","mailto:stratfordc@stratfor.com","allstratfor@stratfor.com",""
122005,"Re: FOR EDIT - Cat4 - Ven - cleaning house in the armed forces
","   none of those dismissed were generals.  going to hold on this until I can
   get more info either way.  there will be other triggers to explain the
   restructuring of the armed forces in any case
   thanks for checking me on this
   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
   To: \"Analysts\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Friday, April 16, 2010 12:04:05 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: FOR EDIT - Cat4 - Ven - cleaning house in the armed forces

   It is standard practice in the us and other military to dismiss officers
   who aren't promoted. The dismissal of 173 non promotable officers in a
   military the size of venezuelas doesn't strike me as significant. Every
   year thousands of american officers are dismissed, usually in may and june
   as postings are up.

   You are trying to say that this is politically significant rather than the
   routine functioning of a militay. Certainly cubans are involved but they
   have been involved for years. There is no battle underway for control of
   the military. Chavez and the cubans won that years ago.

   In order for this story to work you either have to show that chavez's hold
   was slipping or that these particular people were selected because of
   politics rather than routine operations of any military

   You need to look at the people let go. They may be key political figures
   or half wits eating up the budget

   This could be significant but the fact that these guys failed promotion
   and were dismissed is not by itself important.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 16 Apr 2010 11:54:51 -0500 (CDT)
   To: analysts<analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: FOR EDIT - Cat4 - Ven - cleaning house in the armed forces

   In the latest illustration of Venezuelan President Hugo Chaveza**s
   Cuban-inspired plan to subdue dissent within the armed forces, the
   Venezuelan Armed Forces discharged 173 members that failed to achieve
   promotions during the past three years, El Universal reported April 15.
   Notably, no generals were on the list of those whose jobs had been
   terminated. The list included 59 members of the Army, 45 members of the
   Territorial Guard 43 members of the Navy and 26 from the Air Force. Under
   the July 2008 Organic Law of the National Armed Forces, military personnel
   have a maximum period of two years after the end of their mandatory
   minimum service to obtain a promotion, or else they are forced into
   retirement.

    

   The organic law essentially redefined the Venezuelan Armed Forces from a
   politically non-aligned professional institution (as stated in the 1999
   constitution) to a patriotic, popular and anti-imperialist body. Chavez,
   not wanting to be caught off guard again by his generals as he did in an
   April 2002 coup attempt, came up with the Organic Law of the National
   Armed Forces with the help of his Cuban advisors in order to develop a
   Bolivarian military whose primary purpose is to protect and defend the
   regime. The Cuban government, wanting to ensure Venezuelan dependency on
   Cuban security, also had a role in one of the more controversial articles
   in the organic law, which allows for foreign nationals (read: Cubans) who
   have graduated from Venezuelan defense institutions to earn the rank of
   officer in the Venezuelan armed forces.

    

   For Chavez to feel more politically secure, some internal housecleaning in
   the armed forces was to be expected. The clause in the organic law that
   forces officers into retirement if they are not promoted after two years
   is designed to do just that. Chavez and his military elite have been
   running a system in which political allegiance frequently supercedes
   military merit when it comes to awarding promotions. If, however, an
   officer is deemed as ideologically opposed to the regime, he is often
   forced into retirement.

    

   While the regime has made considerably headway in cleaning house in the
   army, navy and air force, the National Guard has long been a point of
   contention for the Venezuelan leader. This is primarily because out of all
   the military services, the National Guard has historically had the
   strongest relationship with the United States. This relationship dates
   back to the 1980s, when Caracas and Washington were cooperating on
   countering narcotrafficking. CIA and DEA trainers were operating in
   Venezuela at the time and worked closely with the National Guard. Chavez
   envisioned breaking up the National Guard completely and replacing it with
   his own version of a Territorial Guard comprised of hundreds of thousands
   of civilian military reservists and active duty military personnel who
   could engage in a**asymmetrical wara** against an external threat like the
   United States. The National Guard fought its abolition by invoking the
   1999 Constitution that lists the National Guard as one of the four
   elements of the Armed Forces. However, the internal security force is
   still subject to periodic purges. Notably, when Chavez decided to
   restructure the Armed Forces into five strategic defense regions, he
   assigned the National Guard commander to the Western region that consists
   of the states of FalcA^3n Lara, Trujillo, MA(c)rida, TA!chira and Zulia.
   This is an area where the political opposition in Venezuela is
   concentrated, which allows Chaveza**s military allies to more easily
   designate officers as political supporters or dissenters when it comes
   time to promote or force members into retirement.

    

   Chavez has attempted to make up for any lingering dissent within the armed
   forces through the creation of the National Bolivarian Militia (NBM) in
   2007 out of some 110,000 reservists, and has since reportedly grown the
   force to roughly 300,000. Efforts are also underway to bolster the NBM
   with peasant recruits and the possible formation of a marine militia
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100301_venezuela_calls_marine_militia.
   The purpose of the militias is to essentially act as a security orce at
   the behest of the president. However, the incorporation of the NBM into
   the Armed Forces structure has caused substantial consternation amongst
   several within the military elite. STRATFOR sources have reported on how
   the defense ministry in particular has resisted the deployment and
   armament of these militias. For now, the militia training exercises are
   used as photo opportunities to demonstrate a military force ideologically
   bound to the regime. If the president chooses to put them to use, however,
   he could face significant opposition from within the military elite. A
   STRATFOR source claims that the defense ministry has kept tabs on the
   militiaa**s activities by maintaining physical control over their weapons
   arsenal, which consists mainly of AK-103 and AK-104 assault rifles
   acquired from Russia.

    

   With economic conditions worsening, an electricity crisis turning critical
   and the political opposition beginning to rise to the occasion, Chavez is
   walking a careful balance between bolstering his internal security force
   and keeping his generals in check. Any significant use of the militias
   would likely be an option of last resort for the regime, which will depend
   primarily on cash handouts to maintain support. It thus becomes all the
   more critical for the government to ensure that revenues keep flowing from
   the countrya**s oil production, but that strategy may also be running into
   trouble, as illustrated by recent strikes by PDVSA contract workers
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100415_venezuela_reprieve_guri_dam in
   the northeastern state of Monagas who are demanding that the state oil
   firm pay wages that were due in January. If PDVSA finances are in serious
   trouble, then the countrya**s main source of revenue a** and thus
   political insurance a** would also be in jeopardy. Meanwhile, Cuba is
   well-positioned to further entrench itself in the Venezuelan security and
   intelligence apparatus as the Chavez governmenta**s vulnerabilities
   continue to rise.

    

    

    
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-03-05 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/122005_re-for-edit-cat4-ven-cleaning-house-in-the-armed-forces-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com,friedman@att.blackberry.net",""
122544,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
","   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marc Lanthemann\" <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-28 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/122544_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","","alpha@stratfor.com",""
122698,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
","   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marc Lanthemann\" <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-14 20:55:23",1,"2012-02-28 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/122698_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
123320,"Re: noble energy
","   By all means talk to him. Itd be interesting to get his view. Turks are
   out of control.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2011 21:35:49 -0500 (CDT)
   To: George Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>
   Subject: noble energy
   As I'm sure you are aware, Noble energy is trying to drill in Greek Cyprus
   waters, and Turkey is raising hell over it. Basically, because they can
   since Greece is a mess right now anyway.  The move to deploy frigates
   seems to be part of this.

   I was just talking to David (the bf), whose best friend's dad is the head
   of Noble Energy. They were all having dinner in houston and the dad was
   talking about how the Turks are creating a nightmare for them with this
   whole warships thing. David was telling him about what I do, and how we do
   a lot of work with Turkey, and the dad wants to talk to me about this.
   Might turn into a business opportunity, you never know. But this family
   has houses all over the world, the dad speaks 10 languages, living in
   Cyprus right now, used to be in Quito and before that, Vietnam, has all
   kinds of crazy connections and crazy dealings with shady people. I might
   be able to learn some interesting things from him. And maybe we could help
   them understand what the Turks are actually going to do...

   Background on the issue that Emre wrote up earlier-

   This is more of a summary of the current situation and questions that
   arise from it. Please feel free to add your comments/questions before I
   tap sources.

   Below is the area where American Noble Energy is supposed to start
   exploratory oil and natural gas drillings in early October according to
   the right granted by Greek Cyprus in 2008. (Attention: Leviathan and Tamar
   are Israeli wells, not Cyprus)

   As far as energy matters are concerned, there is not much to say. Since no
   exploration took place yet, there is no estimation of reserves that would
   tells us how far Cyprus would be willing to push the deal. However, given
   the gigantic reserves found in Israeli offshore fields, ita**s very
   possible that the same would be the case for Cyprus. At least this is the
   hope of Greek Cyprus.

   As you know, Turkish Cyprus is only recognized by Turkey, whereas Greek
   Cyprus is the official government of the entire island and a member of the
   EU, which is not recognized by Turkey. So, this is an issue of national
   sovereignty more than energy production, though Turkey does not want to
   lose energy reserves as well.

   What has happened so far;

   Greek Cyprus side:

   - Greek Cyprus FM sought political support in Israel. They keep saying
   that Israel supports them, but I really doubt that Israel would get
   involved in this controversy for Greek Cyprus while it is having its a)
   own offshore reserves dispute with Lebanon b) troubles with Turkey.

   - Greece is mostly quiet, for a good reason. Athens gives support to
   Cyprus, though only rhetorical. I also have not seen any important
   statement from the EU.

   - Greek Cyprus says it will block energy chapter of Turkey/EU membership
   negotiations. Greek Cyprus has already blocked eight chapters anyway and
   membership talks are in coma. So, this threat does not mean anything for
   Turkey. Even if it did, EU members have their own individual energy
   dealings with Turkey.

   - No statement from Noble Energy yet, neither from the US government.

   Overall, Greek Cyprus has nothing that can stop Turkey.

   Turkey side:

   - Turkey says TPAO will start drillings there as well. I am not sure if
   TPAO is able to do that on its own. Fourth well in the Black Sea oil
   exploration project is operated by TPAO, but the platform is owned by
   Petrobras. (to be replaced by ExxonMobil). So, this does not look very
   credible to me.

   - Most significant tool is, though, Turkeya**s decision to put military
   options on the table to be used in eastern Med, seemingly against Israel.
   Turkey never said it would use it against Cyprus, but if Turkey considers
   eastern Med as its turf that it is ready to defend militarily, there is
   not so much that Greek Cyprus can do to prevent it. This also increases
   risks for Noble Energy when it comes to investment decisions.

   - Turkish MFA also said today that Turkey and Turkish Cyprus agreed to
   conclude a continental shelf delimitation agreement should the Greek
   Cypriot administration proceed with offshore drilling activities in the
   south of the island. Meaningless political/legal move.

   Questions moving forward:

   Noble Energy: What are the plans of Noble Energy? Are they planning to
   move on with the deal? If so, how and when? Is there Noble Energy's
   platform off Cyprus? 

   Turkey: Is Turkey floating the idea of using the military threat against
   Cyprus? Can TPAO drill in southern Cyprus?

   Cyprus: What are the options of Greek Cyprus? What can they do to move on?

    

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-16 04:42:33",1,"2012-03-01 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/123320_re-noble-energy-.html","friedman@att.blackberry.net","","bhalla@stratfor.com",""
124314,"[latam] BRAZIL BRIEFS 110913
","   POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

     * The President Dilma and the opposition party leader Geraldo Alckmin
       (PSDB), governor of Sao Paulo, have taken new steps in approximation
       by announcing a partnership in projects nation-wide (although most are
       concentrated in Sao Paulo's transport infrastructure), the total price
       of which surpass R$ 27 billion (roughly 16.8 billion dollars). This
       approximation is worrying to some sectors of both the PT and the PSDB.
   ECONOMY

     * Latin American countries could be trading without using U.S. dollars
       by next year according to Brazil's Development, Industry and Foreign
       Trade Minister.
     * The Goverment could reduce the tax on industrial products in an effort
       to promote jobs and growth in the industrial sector.
     * The Government has approved a law that opens the market for cable
       television to foreign and domestic telecommunications company. It is
       expected that the amount of consumers of cable TVs will double.

   ENERGY/MINING

     * PetroChina plans to add 1.1 million tonnes of biofuels production
       capacity and import 470,000 tonnes of those fuels by 2015. Brazil is
       one of the countries from which it will import from.
     * The Folha has publicize the incoming \"invasion\" of China into the
       offshore oil sector of the Brazilian economy. Chinese investments in
       offshore oil and gas should sum up to 400 billion dollars until 2020
       (at current rate).
   SECURITY

     *  Brazilian fed police encountered gunfire on Parana River and accuse
       Paraguayan Navy of protecting drug traffickers; Navy denies it
   MILITARY

     * Brazil, Uruguay Def Ministers discussed importance of Uruguay's
       Eastern waterways for both countries, trade through Sao Paulo.
     * The Swedish supreme commander of the armed forces, Sverker Goranson,
       is in an official visit to Brazil from the 11th to the 15th. He will
       tour military bases, meet with the high command of the Armed Forces
       and take part in dialogue.

   'Latin American dollar-less trading may start 2012'
   MONDAY, 12 SEPTEMBER 2011

   http://www.colombiareports.com/colombia-news/economy/18921-colombia-brazil-dollar-less-trading-may-commence-2012.html

   Latin American countries could be trading without using U.S. dollars by
   next year according to Brazil's Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
   Minister.

   Financial publication Portafolio reported that Fernando Pimentel, who
   attended Colombia's National Association of Foreign Trade congress and met
   with his Colombian counterpart Sergio Diaz-Granados, said that trading in
   local currencies is a concrete step towards regional integration.

   The idea for dollar-less trading was suggested by Colombian President Juan
   Manuel Santos at a UNASUR meeting. Pimentel met with Santos to express
   Brazil's interest in the idea and a working group of UNASUR foreign
   ministers has been set up in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

   Colombia and Brazil have been working to improve economic ties between the
   neighboring nations. In August, the first Colombia-Brazil investment forum
   was held to asses the business opportunities the countries can offer each
   other.

   Commenting on Colombia's trade with Brazil, the minister said \"the trade
   balance is in favor of Brazil however the balance of capital is in favor
   of Colombia. A mechanism can be built so that the balance in favor of
   Brazil remains in pesos and can then be used by Brazilian companies
   investing in Colombia.\"

   PetroChina plans to boost biofuels capacity

   http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL3E7K81YZ20110908

   Thu Sep 8, 2011 11:14am GMT Print | Single Page [-] Text [+]
   TIANJIN, China, Sept 8 (Reuters) - PetroChina plans to add 1.1 million
   tonnes of biofuels production capacity and import 470,000 tonnes of those
   fuels by 2015, a company official said on Thursday, as the oil firm aims
   to tap more alternative energy sources.

   Of the planned production capacity, fuel ethanol will be 933,000 tonnes a
   year and biodiesel will be 165,000 tonnes a year, Fu Xingguo, deputy chief
   engineer of PetroChina's Petrochemical Research Institute, said at an
   industry conference.

   The planned biofuel imports, which are likely from countries such as
   Brazil, will be blended with regular fuels and sold to southern Chinese
   provinces, he said.

   Fu said some aviation biofuel the company produced will be used in a test
   flight next month. He did not give more details.

   China has around 1.52 million tonnes of fuel ethanol capacity which mainly
   use grains as feedstocks, according to Fu.

   \"We have to look for non-grain feedstocks, and those are in short
   supplies,\" he said.

   PetroChina currently has only small biofuel production capacity.
   (Reporting by Jim Bai and Chen Aizhu)

   HIDROVIA DEL ESTE
   13.9.2011 - http://www.lr21.com.uy/politica/471451-hidrovia-del-este

   El ministro de Defensa Nacional, Eleuterio Fernandez Huidobro, informo
   ayer al presidente Jose Mujica sobre las reuniones bilaterales que mantuvo
   con su par brasileno, Celso Amorim, encuentro en el cual se analizo la
   carta nautica de la laguna Merin. Fernandez Huidobro se refirio a la
   importancia que tiene tanto para Brasil como para Uruguay la hidrovia del
   Este, \"un sistema de lagunas y canales integrados entre si y al sistema
   vial y ferroviario, por el que se puede llegar hasta San Pablo.

   Supuestos marinos paraguayos se tirotean con federales en el Parana
   13 de Septiembre de 2011 00:00-
   http://www.abc.com.py/nota/supuestos-marinos-paraguayos-se-tirotean-con-federales-en-el-parana/

   Presuntos efectivos de la Marina paraguaya y de la Policia Federal del
   Brasil se enfrentaron a tiros en las aguas del rio Parana durante el
   ultimo fin de semana. Los militares supuestamente protegian a
   narcotraficantes y cigarrilleros que operan desde los puertos clandestinos
   de la zona. El comandante de la base naval de Ciudad del Este, capitan de
   navio Elpidio Moran, dijo anoche que escucho los disparos, pero nego que
   efectivos de su unidad hayan estado involucrados en la balacera.

   La Policia Federal exhibe en su base de Foz de Yguazu las dos
   embarcaciones repletas de mercaderias de contrabando decomisadas el fin de
   semana, en aguas del rio Parana.
   CIUDAD DEL ESTE (Fermin Jara, de nuestra redaccion regional). El
   enfrentamiento entre las dos fuerzas se registro cerca de las 21:00 del
   viernes ultimo, durante un operativo anticontrabando que desplegaban
   efectivos de la Policia Federal del Brasil, en la barranca del rio Parana.
    

   Los efectivos policiales del vecino pais informaron que divisaron varias
   embarcaciones que cruzaban desde el lado paraguayo hacia el Brasil.  

   La lancha de la Policia Federal intercepto las embarcaciones que estaban
   con drogas y mercaderias varias, especialmente cigarrillos. Tras la
   intervencion, los agentes policiales fueron blanco de disparos de armas de
   fuego de grueso calibre que provenian de la margen paraguaya del rio
   Parana, donde esta la base de la Armada paraguaya, de acuerdo al informe
   de la Policia Federal.  

   Igualmente abrieron fuego contra los federales desde dos embarcaciones,
   que se presume eran de la Marina paraguaya, que daban proteccion a los
   contrabandistas y traficantes de drogas.  

   Ante la agresion, dice el parte policial, los agentes federales
   respondieron de la misma manera. El tiroteo duro cerca de 40 minutos.  

   La balacera entre ambas fuerzas fue aprovechada por los criminales para
   regresar al lado paraguayo.

   Alli se refugiaron en los puertos clandestinos y de esa forma salvaron sus
   mercaderias.  

   El enfrentamiento ocurrio a menos de 300 metros del Puente de la Amistad y
   fue escuchado y observado por los pobladores de los barrios Juan E.
   O'Leary y San Miguel. Centenares de personas que cruzaban el Puente de la
   Amistad a esa hora tambien presenciaron el bochornoso episodio.  

   Version de la Marina

   El comandante de la base naval de la capital del Alto Parana, capitan de
   navio Elpidio Moran, dijo anoche que escucho los tiros que se produjeron
   el viernes pasado, pero nego que efectivos de la unidad bajo su comando
   hayan estado involucrados.

   Indico en cuanto a los disparos que inclusive hubo rafagas de pistolas
   automaticas, pero que solamente fue en el lado brasileno. Sostuvo que hubo
   neblina en ese horario y no se pudo observar nada.  

   El pasado fin de semana la Policia Federal decomiso cajas de cigarrillos y
   drogas que pasaban en embarcaciones, desde la margen paraguaya del lago de
   Itaipu, hacia el Brasil.  

   Operacion

   Por otro lado, ayer la Policia Federal desbarato una gavilla internacional
   de narcotraficantes y contrabandistas de cigarrillos integrada por
   paraguayos y brasilenos quienes operaban en los puertos clandestinos
   ubicados en la ribera del rio Parana.  

   Atendiendo a los datos de investigadores, la gavilla traficaba una gran
   cantidad de drogas desde territorio paraguayo, distribuida en diversas
   ciudades brasilenas. Fueron detenidas 19 personas.  

   La Policia Federal dijo que recien hoy dara mayores informaciones sobre la
   megaoperacion que se realizo en la frontera con el Paraguay.

   FF.AA. paraguayas desmienten tiroteo con Policia brasilena
   13 de Septiembre de 2011 09:04-
   http://www.abc.com.py/nota/ff-aa-paraguaya-desmiente-tiroteo-policia-brasilena/
    
   El coronel Luis Gonzalez, vocero de las Fuerzas Armadas, senalo que la
   Armada paraguaya no se involucro en un tiroteo registrado en aguas del rio
   Paraguay el viernes ultimo. Fue al salir al paso de la insinuacion de la
   Policia Federal del Brasil de que sus agentes fueron atacados por
   efectivos de la Marina.
    
   Oficialmente, las Fuerzas Armadas desconocen el supuesto enfrentamiento
   entre marinos paraguayos y federales brasilenos, registrado en la noche
   del viernes ultimo.

   En conversacion con ABC Digital, el coronel Gonzalez desmintio
   categoricamente la posibilidad.

   Comento que recibio un informe del comandante de la base naval de Ciudad
   el Este, capitan de navio Elpidio Moran, quien rechazo la version de que
   efectivos a su cargo habrian efectuado disparos.

   \"El comandante estaba en las inmediaciones de la guardia con algunos
   personales (sic), se escucharon 14 tiros al otro lado (de la frontera)\",
   relato.

   Al ser abordado sobre las insinuaciones de los policias federales,
   Gonzalez senalo que \"vamos a hacer nuestra evaluacion, pero logicamente
   confiamos en lo que nos dice el comandante de la base naval\".

   Senalo que la Policia Federal podria hacer algun reclamo formal a traves
   de la Cancilleria u otra instancia para iniciar una investigacion.

   Segun trascendio en la vispera, los efectivos policiales de Brasil fueron
   atacados luego de interceptar una embarcacion que cruzo la frontera hacia
   el vecino pais con cargas de contrabando.

   Los agentes -que igualmente abrieron fuego- senalan que los tiros venian
   de la margen paraguaya, donde se encuentra la Armada.

   Dilma e Alckmin se reunem por parceria de R$ 27 bi

   12 de setembro de 2011 | 22h 40

   http://www.estadao.com.br/noticias/nacional,dilma-e-alckmin-se-reunem-por-parceria-de-r-27-bi,771743,0.htm

   Em mais um capitulo da recente aproximac,ao politico-administrativa, a
   presidente Dilma Rousseff (PT) e o governador paulista Geraldo Alckmin
   (PSDB) encontram-se nesta terc,a-feira, 13, para anunciar parcerias em
   projetos e iniciativas que ultrapassam R$ 27 bilhoes.

   A petista e o tucano se reunirao oficialmente para anunciar investimentos
   no eixo norte do Rodoanel, mas a pauta de medio prazo entre os dois
   governos vai alem da area dos transportes.

   Dilma e Alckmin devem tratar de outros assuntos de interesse das duas
   gestoes, como a ampliac,ao do limite de endividamento do Estado, tema caro
   `a administrac,ao paulista, a parceria em projetos habitacionais e o
   investimento em outras obras de infraestrutura, como o Ferroanel e a
   Hidrovia Parana-Tiete.

   E a segunda vez em menos de um mes que Dilma visitara o Palacio dos
   Bandeirantes. O encontro desperta polemica em setores do PSDB e do PT.

   O ex-presidente Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva foi convidado para a cerimonia,
   mas sua assessoria disse que ele nao podera participar. Lula nao tem
   acompanhado Dilma em eventos oficiais. Ex-governadores que tocaram os
   investimentos do Rodoanel, como Jose Serra e Alberto Goldman, tambem
   seriam convidados.

   Dilma e Alckmin anunciam investimento de R$ 6,4 bilhoes no eixo norte do
   Rodoanel - R$ 1,7 bilhao e da Uniao. A parceria no projeto, que vai ate
   2015, foi assinada em 1999, quando o presidente da Republica era o tucano
   Fernando Henrique Cardoso.

   Alem do Rodoanel, Estado e Uniao trabalham juntos para tirar do papel a
   Hidrovia Tiete-Parana, orc,ada em R$ 1,5 bilhao, e o trecho norte do
   Ferroanel, estimado em R$ 1,2 bilhao.

   O governo paulista tambem quer de Dilma a autorizac,ao para ampliar o
   limite de endividamento em R$ 17 bilhoes ate 2013. O assunto e prioritario
   na agenda de Alckmin, que tratou do tema com o ministro Guido Mantega
   (Fazenda) na semana passada.

   Depois de anunciar a unificac,ao do programa social do Estado com o
   Bolsa-Familia, o tucano e a petista farao ainda parceria na area de
   habitac,ao. Sera anunciado ate o fim do mes uma complementac,ao de ate R$
   20 mil por parte do Estado ao teto de financiamento do Minha Casa, Minha
   Vida, que hoje e de R$ 65 mil. A ac,ao pode alcanc,ar, pelo menos, 70 mil
   familias.

   Polemica. \"Dilma e autoritaria na relac,ao com o Congresso, mas busca
   compensar isso no trato com os governadores\", afirmou Sergio Guerra,
   presidente do PSDB. Para o deputado Devanir Ribeiro (PT-SP), \"a relac,ao e
   politica e nao partidaria\".

   A aproximac,ao causa polemica em ambos os partidos. Para os tucanos,
   Alckmin opera a aproximac,ao de olho em recursos que podem ajudar sua
   reeleic,ao em 2014. Mas acabaria enfraquecendo o discurso oposicionista
   que o partido propaga no plano nacional. Os petistas avaliam que o dialogo
   da presidente com o governador pode fortalecer ainda mais os tucanos no
   Estado, governado pelo PSDB desde 1995.

   No mes passado, quando Dilma e Alckmin assinaram a unificac,ao dos
   programas sociais, petistas criticaram a extensao da bandeira social do
   governo aos tucanos. Alguns integrantes do PSDB, por sua vez, avaliavam
   ser mais estrategico para o partido fortalecer seus proprios projetos na
   area social.

   --------------------------------------------------
   In a more recent chapter of political-administrative approach, the
   President Rousseff (PT) and Sao Paulo Governor Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) are
   on Tuesday, 13, to announce partnerships in projects and initiatives that
   exceed $ 27 billion.

   The PSDB and the PT will gather to officially announce investment in the
   Ring Road along the north, but the medium-term agenda between the two
   countries goes beyond the transport sector.

   Dilma Alckmin and must deal with other matters of interest to the two
   terms, such as the expansion of the limit of indebtedness of the state, a
   subject dear to the Sao Paulo government, the partnership in housing
   projects and investment in other infrastructure, such as Ferroanel-Parana
   Waterway and Tiete.

   It is the second time in less than a month Dilma visit the Bandeirantes
   Palace. The meeting arouses controversy in sectors of the PSDB and the PT.

   Former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was invited to the ceremony,
   but his office said he could not participate. Dilma Lula has not kept up
   at official events. Former governors who played the investments of the
   Beltway, like Serra and Jose Alberto Goldman, would also be invited.

   Dilma and Alckmin announced investment of $ 6.4 billion in the Ring Road
   along the north - -L- 1.7 billion of the Union's partnership in the
   project, which runs until 2015, was signed in 1999, when the president was
   Toucan Fernando Henrique Cardoso.

   Beyond the Beltway, State and Union work together to take part to the
   Tiete-Parana, budgeted at R $ 1.5 billion, and the words northern
   Ferroanel, estimated at $ 1.2 billion.

   The Sao Paulo government also wants to Dilma authorization to extend the
   debt limit from $ 17 billion by 2013. The issue is high on the agenda of
   Alckmin, who addressed the issue with the Minister Guido Mantega (Finance)
   last week.

   After announcing the unification of the social state with the Bolsa
   Familia, the PSDB and the PT will also partnership in the area of
   &#8203;&#8203;housing. Will be announced by the end of the month a
   supplement of up to $ 20,000 from the state funding to the ceiling of the
   My House, My Life, which today is $ 65,000. The action can achieve at
   least 70 000 families.

   Controversy. \"Dilma is authoritative in relation to the Congress, but
   attempt to compensate for it in dealing with the governors,\" said Sergio
   Guerra, president of the PSDB. For the deputy Devanir Ribeiro (PT), \"the
   relationship is political and not partisan.\"

   The approach sparked controversy in both parties. For the toucans, Alckmin
   operates the nearest eye on resources that can help his re-election in
   2014. But the speech would weaken opposition party that propagates at the
   national level. The PT evaluate the president's dialogue with the governor
   can further strengthen the toucans in the state, governed by the PSDB in
   1995.

   Last month, when Dilma and Alckmin signed the unification of social
   programs, criticized the extension of the PT flag to the government's
   social toucans. Some members of the PSDB, in turn, assessed to be more
   strategic for the party to strengthen their own projects in the social
   area.

   Governo pode reduzir IPI para manter empregos em montadoras

   13/09/2011 - 08h44

   http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/974369-governo-pode-reduzir-ipi-para-manter-empregos-em-montadoras.shtml

   Hoje na Folha O governo e as centrais sindicais devem se reunir nesta
   semana para discutir acordo para manter o nivel de emprego nas montadoras
   em tempos de crise, informa a coluna Monica Bergamo na Folha.

   A integra da coluna esta disponivel para assinantes do jornal e do UOL
   (empresa controlada pelo Grupo Folha, que edita a Folha).

   Em pauta esta a possibilidade de o governo diminuir o IPI para empresas
   que usarem maior numero de pec,as fabricadas no Brasil. As centrais
   defendem cota de 80% de pec,as nacionais.

   TV paga vai dobrar no pais com mais concorrencia, preve governo

   13/09/2011 - 10h16

   http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/974407-tv-paga-vai-dobrar-no-pais-com-mais-concorrencia-preve-governo.shtml

   O governo estima que o numero de assinantes de TV por assinatura vai
   dobrar, passando dos atuais 11 milhoes para 22 milhoes, pelo aumento da
   concorrencia e consequente reduc,ao nos prec,os.

   Banda larga somara incentivo de R$ 4 bilhoes

   A projec,ao se deve `a sanc,ao ontem pela presidente Dilma Rousseff da lei
   que abre o mercado de TV a cabo para empresas de telecomunicac,oes
   nacionais e estrangeiras e define cotas nacionais de programac,ao.

   A nova lei unifica a regulamentac,ao de TV por assinatura -via satelite, a
   cabo ou por micro-ondas. Deixa de valer a lei para TV a cabo que proibia
   estrangeiros de controlar empresas na area.

   O veto tambem valia para as nacionais, mas a agencia reguladora Anatel ja
   estava mudando essa determinac,ao.

   O governo conta tambem com o aumento do servic,o de internet por banda
   larga no pais com a nova legislac,ao. \"Acreditamos que pelo menos um
   terc,o dos assinantes de TV paga no pais contrate tambem internet rapida
   por banda larga com a nova lei\", afirmou ontem o ministro Paulo Bernardo
   (Comunicac,oes).

   A equipe de Dilma entendeu que as regras que limitavam a oferta de TV a
   cabo desencorajavam investimento em redes de fibra optica. As empresas de
   telefonia fixa poderao vender os chamados \"combos\" de TV paga, telefone e
   banda larga.

   Na abertura do congresso Futurecom, em Sao Paulo, Bernardo anunciou acordo
   com o ministro Guido Mantega (Fazenda) para a eliminac,ao do PIS/Cofins na
   implantac,ao de novas redes com o objetivo de acelerar a oferta de banda
   larga.

   A renuncia fiscal pode chegar a R$ 4 bilhoes em quatro anos. Para se
   beneficiarem do incentivo nas grandes cidades, as empresas terao de
   construir redes em areas consideradas distantes.

   Pelos calculos do Ministerio das Comunicac,oes, serao necessarios
   investimentos de R$ 70 bilhoes ate 2014.

   Para o presidente da Oi, Francisco Valim, a isenc,ao doe PIS/Cofins \"e
   musica para os ouvidos\". Antonio Carlos Valente, dirigente da Telefonica,
   elogiou a reduc,ao do tributo, mas criticou a contrapartida por a
   desonerac,ao embutir \"um onus\".

   VETOS

   Dilma vetou dois pontos do texto da lei sobre a TV paga aprovado pelo
   Congresso.

   Um deles deixaria que o servic,o de classificac,ao indicativa na TV paga
   ficasse sob a responsabilidade das empresas, e nao do Ministerio da
   Justic,a. A outra permitiria a cobranc,a do Servic,o de Atendimento ao
   Consumidor.

   A Anatel tem ate 180 dias para regulamentar a nova lei.
   ------------------------------------------------
   The government estimates that the number of pay TV subscribers will
   double, from the current 11 million to 22 million, by increasing
   competition and the consequent reduction in prices.

   Broadband incentive will add $ 4 billion

   The projection is due to the penalty yesterday by President Rousseff law
   that opens the cable TV market for telecom companies and foreign and
   national programming quotas set.

   The new law unifies the regulation of cable TV, satellite, cable or
   microwave. Fails to enforce the law for cable TV prohibiting foreign
   control of companies in the area.

   The veto was also true for the national, but the regulator Anatel was
   changing that determination.

   The government also has increased service broadband internet in the
   country with the new legislation. \"We believe that at least one third of
   the pay-TV subscribers in the country also hire a broadband fast internet
   with the new law,\" he said yesterday the Minister Paulo Bernardo
   (Communications).

   The staff Dilma understood that the rules that limited the supply of cable
   discouraged investment in fiber optic networks. The fixed telephone
   companies can sell so-called \"combos\" of pay TV, telephone and broadband.

   Opening the conference Futurecom in Sao Paulo, Bernardo announced an
   agreement with the Minister Guido Mantega (Finance) for the elimination of
   PIS / Cofins in deploying new networks in order to accelerate the
   provision of broadband.

   The tax breaks could reach $ 4 billion in four years. To take advantage of
   the incentive in the big cities, companies will have to build networks in
   areas considered remote.

   Calculations by the Ministry of Communications, will require investments
   of $ 70 billion by 2014.

   The president of Hi, Francisco Valim, the exemption doe PIS / Cofins \"is
   music to the ears.\" Antonio Carlos Valente, head of Telefonica, praised
   the reduction of the tax, but criticized the exchange for the exemption
   embed \"a burden\".

   VETOS

   Dilma vetoed two points in the text of the law on pay TV approved by
   Congress.

   One that would leave its ratings on the indicative pay TV would remain
   under the responsibility of companies, not the Ministry of Justice. The
   other would allow the collection of the Department of Customer Services.

   The FCC has 180 days to regulate the new law.

   Invasao' chinesa chega para o pre-sal

   13/09/2011 - 07h30

   http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mercado/974256-invasao-chinesa-chega-para-o-pre-sal.shtml

   Hoje na Folha De olho em encomendas que devem somar US$ 400 bilhoes ate
   2020, empresas chinesas do setor de petroleo e gas preparam uma especie de
   \"invasao\" ao Brasil, informa reportagem de Cirilo Junior para a Folha.

   A integra esta disponivel para assinantes do jornal e do UOL (empresa
   controlada pelo Grupo Folha, que edita a Folha).

   Pelo menos 20 fornecedores da cadeia de bens e servic,os de petroleo
   desembarcam ainda em 2011 no Brasil, em busca da forte demanda oriunda
   especialmente de projetos na camada pre-sal, liderados na maior parte pela
   Petrobras.

   Depois de investir principalmente em telecomunicac,oes e em equipamentos
   de construc,oes rodoviarias, a nova leva de recursos chineses no Brasil
   sera destinada `a cadeia petrolifera, segundo o presidente da Camara de
   Comercio e Industria Brasil-China, Charles Tang.

   \"O Brasil e um mercado importantissimo, e as empresas chinesas querem
   investir\", afirma. Inicialmente, essas companhias chegam abrindo
   representac,oes por aqui. A perspectiva, segundo Tang, e que muitas delas
   passem a produzir no Brasil.

   Vai se instalar aqui, por exemplo, a Honghua, fabricante de sondas que
   recentemente ganhou contrato para fornecer dois equipamentos de
   perfurac,ao terrestres para a Queiroz Galvao Oleo e Gas. Outra companhia
   que prepara a entrada no pais e a CIMC Raffles, que ja forneceu duas
   plataformas de perfurac,ao para o grupo Schahin.
   -------------------
   Today in Leaf eye on orders that must add up to $ 400 billion by 2020,
   Chinese companies in the oil and gas are preparing a kind of \"invasion\" to
   Brazil, tells story of Cyril Sheet for Junior.

   The full text is available to subscribers of the newspaper and UOL
   (subsidiary of Grupo Folha, which publishes Folha).

   At least 20 suppliers of goods and services chain oil has landed in Brazil
   in 2011 in search of strong demand especially coming from projects in the
   pre-salt layer, led mostly by Petrobras.

   After investing primarily in telecommunications and road construction
   equipment, the new wave of Chinese resources in Brazil will be for the oil
   chain, the president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry Brazil-China,
   Charles Tang.

   \"Brazil is an important market, and Chinese companies want to invest,\" he
   says. Initially, these companies even opening representations here. The
   prospect, according to Tang, is that many of them start to produce in
   Brazil.

   'll Settle here, for example, Honghua, a manufacturer of probes that
   recently won contract to supply two drilling equipment for land Queiroz
   Galvao Oil & Gas Other company prepares to enter the country is the
   Raffles CIMC, which has supplied two drilling rigs for the group Schahin.

   Comandante Supremo das Forc,as Armadas da Suecia, Sverker Go:ranson,
   visita o Brasil

   12 de Setembro, 2011 - 19:08 ( Brasilia )

   http://www.defesanet.com.br/fx2/noticia/2742/Comandante-Supremo-das-Forcas-Armadas-da-Suecia--Sverker-Goranson--visita-o-Brasil-

   O General Go:ranson cumprira uma agenda oficial de 11 a 15 de setembro no
   Brasil. O proposito desta viagem e de estreitar as relac,oes bilaterais na
   area de defesa.

   A parte oficial da viagem tera inicio com uma visita de estudo `a Base
   Aerea de Anapolis - BAAN, Goias, onde os avioes E-99, do Esquadrao
   Guardiao (2-o/6-oGAV), utilizam o sistema de radar Erieye, desenvolvido na
   Suecia.

   Em Brasilia, o Comandante Supremo se encontrara com os comandantes das
   tres Forc,as Armadas do Brasil: o Comandante do Exercito,General Enzo
   Martins Peri; o Comandante da Marinha, Almirante Julio Soares de Moura
   Neto; e o Comandante da Aeronautica, Brigadeiro Juniti Saito. Ainda em
   Brasilia, o Comandante Supremo da Suecia tambem recebera informac,oes
   sobre o Centro de Instruc,ao de Guerra na Selva - CIGS.

   A visita continuara no Rio de Janeiro, com a visita do Comandante ao
   \"Centro de Adestramento Almirante Marques de Leao\" e a \"Escola Superior de
   Guerra\" - ESG. O Comandante participara de palestras no Centro Conjunto de
   Operac,oes de Paz do Brasil (CCOPAB), Centro Sergio Vieira de Mello.

   O General Go:ranson e o Comandante Supremo das Forc,as Armadas desde 2009
   e, desde 2002, e membro da Real Academia Sueca de Ciencias de Guerra
   (Kungliga krigsvetenskapsakademin). O General serviu anteriormente como
   Inspetor do Exercito, como Adido Militar da Embaixada da Suecia, em
   Washington, e tambem como Subcomandante do Batalhao da Suecia nas Forc,as
   da OTAN na Bosnia.
   ------------------------------------------------------
   General Goranson fulfill an official agenda 11-15 September in Brazil. The
   purpose of this trip is to strengthen bilateral relations in defense.

   The official part of the trip will begin with a study visit to Air Force
   Base Annapolis - BAAN, Texas, where the planes E-99, Squadron Guardian (2
   / 6 -o GAV), using the radar system Erieye, developed in Sweden.

   In Brasilia, the Supreme Commander will meet with commanders of the three
   Armed Forces of Brazil: Army Commander, General Enzo Martins Peri, the
   Navy Commander Admiral Julio Soares de Moura Neto, and the Air Force
   Commander Brigadier Juniti Saito. Also in Brasilia, the Supreme Commander
   of Sweden also receive information about the Center for War Instruction in
   the Jungle - CIGS.

   The visit will continue in Rio de Janeiro, with the visit of the Commander
   \"training centers Almirante Marques de Leon\" and \"War College\" - ESG. The
   Commander will attend lectures at the Joint Center for Peacekeeping
   Operations in Brazil (CCOPAB), Sergio Vieira de Mello Center.

   General Goranson is the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces since 2009
   and since 2002, is a member of the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences
   (Kungliga krigsvetenskapsakademin). The previously served as Inspector
   General of the Army, as military attache of the Embassy of Sweden in
   Washington, and as Deputy Commander of the Battalion of Sweden in the NATO
   Forces in Bosnia.
","2011-09-13 18:35:44",1,"2012-08-02 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/124314_-latam-brazil-briefs-110913-.html","renato.whitaker@stratfor.com","mailto:latam@stratfor.com","rbaker@stratfor.com,latam@stratfor.com",""
126171,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/CYPRUS/ENERGY - Not energy,
 it's politics - TR 325
","   of course it's mostly a political issue. that's also what we wrote about
   in the diary.  lay out clearly what you would like to address in a piece

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Emre Dogru\" <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, September 22, 2011 5:40:30 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/CYPRUS/ENERGY - Not energy, it's
   politics - TR 325

   The insight gives an interesting aspect that is totally different than
   what major media says. I think we need an update on the Cyprus issue. Even
   though I don't totally buy the \"recognition\" argument, it makes sense to
   me that this is a mostly political issue. Also, Israel aspect is worth
   addressing. I have maps and other technical details we can include.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 21, 2011 7:30:15 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/CYPRUS/ENERGY - Not energy, it's
   politics - TR 325

   what does he mean by intervene?  as in, that's when they'll send warships?
   i still doubt it.

   basically,t his just goes to show that Turkey is trying to play catch up
   on this issue and is hitting a ton of walls in doing so

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Emre Dogru\" <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 21, 2011 11:19:28 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/CYPRUS/ENERGY - Not energy, it's
   politics - TR 325

   sorry for sending this to the list directly. meant to go through WO

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Emre Dogru\" <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 21, 2011 7:18:38 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/CYPRUS/ENERGY - Not energy,        it's
   politics - TR 325

   CODE: TR 325
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source in Turkey, energy expert
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Energy and national security expert
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Emre
   SOURCE HANDLER: Emre

   We need to understand this development within the framework of UN mediated
   talks between the two sides in Cyprus. Ban-ki Moon said long before that
   it would announce if and when the negotiations fail between the two to
   force the two sides to find a solution. Right now, Greek Cypriots are
   trying to distract attention by bringing up the oil and natural gas
   exploration issue. Their strategy is to prevent the recognition of Turkish
   Cyprus at any cost [though source did not explain how recognition would be
   possible]. Turkey does not care the EU anyway. Ankara will suspend the
   talks with the EU when Greek Cyprus assumes presidency.

   At tactical level, Cyprus wants to take advantage of the dispute between
   Israel and Turkey. This is why it started with 12th bloc. It's true that
   the geological zone is closer to Leviathan and there it is promising, but
   the first motivation is Turkish/Israeli dispute. Israel also wants to show
   to Turkey the losses of downgrading ties. But of course it does not show
   explicit support. It's possible, for example, to leak a report in Israeli
   media that its warships are sailing in eastern Med for supervision,
   without explicitly saying supervision for what.
   Apart from Erdogan's rhetoric, there will be no conflict in eastern Med.
   TPAO may send seismic vessels escorted by Turkish frigates, which is not
   significant. Shell may go there or another platform that is currently in
   the Black Sea. They may shows flags to each other and engage in a
   dog-fight but nothing more. Greek Cyprus cannot show military force to
   Turkey. But Turkey cannot remain silent because if it does, it will be
   weak in Aegean against Greece. Therefore this is a dual game. Nobody wants
   a fight in eastern Med, where Russian, Israeli and US fleets are present.
   Nobody can take the risk of getting involved in such an adventure. Turkey
   cannot afford this and may overreact.

   I arranged exactly the same deal for the Turkish government in 2007. Shell
   accepted to work in blocs 3, 7, 11, 12 on behalf of the Turkis Cyprus
   government. However, I could not convince the AKP government. Now, Greek
   Cyprus is doing the same against us.

   The process has three phases:

   1) Exclusive economic zone agreement
   2) Drilling
   3) Production

   Again, apart from Erdogan's stance, Turkish state's position is to
   intervene when Greek Cyprus reaches to production phase. And there is
   still one more year to go until that stage. Till then, Greek Cyprus is
   free to pay the costs of drilling&exploration.

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-22 16:11:17",1,"2012-03-08 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/126171_re-alpha-insight-turkey-cyprus-energy-not-energy-it-s.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
130364,"Syria piece in our confed partner
","   Reva - I forwarded our Syria piece to our confed partner Sabah and they
   will reprint it tomorrow. My PoC called me to say this and I told him that
   he can also ask you some questions about the stability of the Syrian
   regime and integrate your thoughts to their article. Can you please call
   him at +90 554 879 8030 this morning (mind the time difference)? His name
   is Alparslan Akkus.
   Cheers

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-30 12:56:41",1,"2012-03-09 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/130364_syria-piece-in-our-confed-partner-.html","emre.dogru@stratfor.com","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,confed@stratfor.com",""
131339,"Re: Discussion - Political story of Turkish/Cyprus energy competition
","     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Emre Dogru\" <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Friday, September 23, 2011 8:21:22 AM
   Subject: Re: Discussion - Political story of Turkish/Cyprus energy
   competition

   Bayless Parsley wrote:

     On 9/23/11 7:33 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

       A seismic vessel of Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) left the
       Turkish port in Izmir and is currently sailing toward Cyprus.
       According to Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz, the vessel conduct
       operate oil and natural gas explorations off northern Cyprus, though
       it may operate in offshore blocs in the south that are claimed by
       Greek Cypriot government in the future. There is no information that
       the vessel is escorted by Turkish warships currently, but Turkey
       announced before that its warships and submarines are already on
       active duty in Eastern Mediterranean, without clarifying their exact
       mission.

     we need to verify this.  have they sent frigates are not. that
     determines wehther we could see this escalate into something more
     serious. where and when did turkey announce they're on 'active duty'?  i
     thought they just said they would deploy so far

       The offshore exploration and drilling dispute between Turkey and Greek
       Cyprus flared up when the American Noble Energy company started its
       operations on Sept. XXX. Noble Energy was granted exploration license
       for Block 12 of Cyprus's exclusive economic zone (a maritime boundary
       that gives a coastal state the right to conduct economic activities up
       to 200 miles) in 2007, which is not recognized by Turkey due to the de
       facto division of the Island. Turkey, as the only country that
       recognizes Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, claims that the Greek
       Cypriots do not have the right to exploit island's seabed resources
       unilaterally. Greek Cypriot government, however, is the only official
       representative of the entire island and a member of the European
       Union, even though it does not have authority over the northern part
       of the island. Despite these legal disputes, the Greek Cypriot
       government signed exclusive economic zone delimitation agreements with
       Egypt in 2003 and Lebanon in 2007.

       [INSERT MAP - need to be merged]

       Turkey has long been warning against starting offshore operations but
       its rhetoric failed to persuade the Greek Cypriot government and Noble
       Energy executives. Shortly after Noble Energy started its operations,
       Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and Turkish Cypriot President
       Dervis Eroglu signed a bilateral continental shell agreement to
       legitimize TPAO's exploration activity during their visit to the
       United States on Sept. 21.

       Though it appears as an energy competition between Turkey and Greek
       Cyprus, there are underlying geopolitical factors that allowed the
       Greek Cypriot government to take such steps.

       The tension has already been increasing in eastern Mediterranean since
       the Turkish government announced on Sep. XXX that Turkish warships
       would escort any aid ship that sails toward the Gaza Strip to break
       the Israeli imposed blockade. Turkish move came shortly after a leaked
       newspaper report that said the UN investigation report on the Mavi
       Marmara incident (which left nine Turks death in May 2010) found the
       Israeli action legal. Even though it remains unclear whether Turkey
       would allow another aid ship to sail toward Gaza from its ports to
       make its threat credible, its move nevertheless has indicated that
       Turkey would not rule out any military option to assume its regional
       role as an emerging power.

       The growing tension between Turkey and Israel played into Greek
       Cypriot's hands. The Block 12 (the only licensed part of the exclusive
       economic zone claimed by Greek Cyprus does this mean that Greek Cyprus
       doesn't lay any claim at all to the other blocks? who does? why do
       those blocks even exist/who drew them up, if no one is claiming them?)
       these are the areas that Greek Cyprus says are inside of its exclusive
       economic zone. It may operate there in the future. It's about claiming
       sovereignty. But it only granted exploration license for the Block 12.
       3 and 13, for instance, were excluded in the 1st licensing round. is
       the closest part to Israel's recently discovered gigantic natural gas
       reserves, don't say gigantic - just say what the estimates are
       Leviathan and Tamar, where Noble Energy has been operating since 1998.
       By starting operations in Block 12, Greek Cyprus does not only hope to
       increase the geological possibility to find similar amount of energy
       reserves, but it also takes advantage of the dispute between Turkish
       and Israeli governments. Even though there is no formal exclusive
       economic zone delimitation agreement between the Greek Cyprus and
       Israel (and Israel could complicate Cyprus's plans if it wanted to),
       Cyprus has faced no resistance from Tel-Aviv to start its operations.
       Moreover, Greek Cyprus assumes that the Turkish navy would not take
       the risk of getting close to the Israeli shore to prevent operations
       in the Block 12. Why? It doesn't seem that close to Israel; there
       seems to be a lot of space for Turkish ships to maneuver it's very
       close, actually. and it's very risky given the military threats of the
       turkish gov For the Israeli government, this is a great opportunity to
       show how things could get more difficult for the Turkish government to
       handle if it does not change its policy toward Israel.  need to
       explain how exactly. i dont think the israelis want to escalate things
       with Turkey, they're largely staying out of this issue but are happy
       to see the Turks come under pressure and seeing the limits of Turkey's
       rhetoric exposed in the eastern med. i think that's all u need to say
       on the israeli angle

       Has the Izzie gov't issued any warnings to the Turks about not sending
       ships to deter Greek Cypriot drilling activity? no. they remained
       largely calm. but will double-check this part.

       The fact that Turkish - EU relationship at its nadir helps the Greek
       Cypriot government to push its ambitions as well. No chapter in
       Turkish - EU accession talks has opened since July 2010, and the
       Turkish government already announced that it will suspend all ties
       with the EU when Greek Cyprus assumes EU's rotating presidency in the
       second half of 2012. The issue has been demonstrated by Turkish
       President Abdullah Gul's visit to Germany on Sept. XXX, during which
       German Chancellor Angela Merkel outspokenly said that Germany does not
       want Turkey to become a member of the European Union. Greek Cyprus
       knows that Turkey has very few levers against the EU to convince
       Europe's powerful countries - which are already busy with the European
       sovereign debt crisis - to stop the Greek Cypriots. I would just throw
       away this entire para, or condense it, because i don't see why it
       matters. everyone has known for years that turkey wio  yeah, dont need
       to get into too much detail, but point out that Turkey does'nt need to
       be sensiitive to EU condemnation. link back to our more in depth
       pieces where we discuss how turkye primairly is using hte EU bid now
       for PR purposes but is moving past this out of geopol necessity

       It is not clear yet how long the exploration stages will take and
       whether any reserve would be found that is worth exploiting. STRAFOR's
       Turkish energy sources indicate that Turkey's official policy is to
       wait until Greek Cyprus enters the production stage to take a decisive
       action. A military confrontation is unlikely until then, though naval
       dogfights could take place in highly a restrained manner.  this sounds
       weird, and though they may attempt restraint, there is room for
       miscalculation and error that could escalate the situation. For the
       moment, however, Greek Cyprus tries to take advantage of changing
       geopolitical conditions as much as it can to gain more ground. Turkey,
       for its part, attempts to show that it is able to take steps to defend
       its interests in eastern Mediterranean and other regions if needed,
       since any Turkish weakness in this issue could encourage Greece to
       push its demands in the Aegean Sea, which would force Turkey to
       intervene without any hesitation.  how would Greece push its demands
       in the Aegean?   stay consistent with our last diary on this. Greece
       is distracted financially and so is US (and that's what informed
       turkey's thinking on this,) but Turkey also can't rule out that greece
       won't benefit and use this issue as an attempted distraction while the
       govt is facing so much political heat

       --
       --
       Emre Dogru
       STRATFOR  
       Cell: +90.532.465.7514
       Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
       emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-23 16:39:10",1,"2012-03-10 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/131339_re-discussion-political-story-of-turkish-cyprus-energy.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
133458,"Re: Turkey's Problems with Neighbors (Cyprus we're looking at you)
","   yeah, I agree with the turkey part. my comment meant to emphasize the part
   about greek cyprus. we need to first lay out Greek Cyprus' motivation and
   then explain why and how Turkey had to show its balls and the constraints
   it faces.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Emre Dogru\" <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Mike Marchio\" <mike.marchio@stratfor.com>, \"OpCenter\"
   <opcenter@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 28, 2011 6:32:41 PM
   Subject: Re: Turkey's Problems with Neighbors (Cyprus we're looking at
   you)

   Emre, I agree with you that we need a substantial paragraph in here
   explaining what Greek Cyprus was thinking in trying to push forward with
   the exploration  while Turkey was having problems with Israel and in
   trying to further strain EU-Turkey ties. That all makes sense.

   But, it's not an either/or thing.  Turkey also saw the current situation
   as an opportunity - after flopping with Israel, turkey wanted to show it
   still has something to show for itself in the eastern Med.  Even then,
   Turkey is facing big constraints and is playing catch-up in the Cyprus
   issue. As you rgihtly point out, TPAO would also need a foreign firm with
   the expertise and willingness to absorb the political risk in working with
   Turkey to drill in these waters.  Turkey can say it doesn't have to act in
   the exploration phase, but what can Turkey seroiusly do to prevent
   production?  That's going to be extremely tough for them.

   also, there was a turkish official that talked about naval escorts for the
   energy crews. i think it was the energy minister, but that can be easily
   looked up.

   Marchio did a great job in articulating this. We just need those small
   adjustments and a section on the GReek Cyprus point of view and we are
   good to go on this.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Emre Dogru\" <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Mike Marchio\" <mike.marchio@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 28, 2011 4:22:06 AM
   Subject: Re: Turkey's Problems with Neighbors (Cyprus we're looking at
   you)

   the main argument in the initial piece is reversed here. we are not saying
   that turkey is reasserting itself in the eastern Med by using the cyprus
   issue. it's the opposite:

   greek cyprus thinks its the best time to push its demands because 1)
   turkey and israel have disputes and it is risky for turkey to conduct
   naval operations in areas close to Block-12 2) Turkey and EU ties are at
   nadir and Cyprus wants to severe the ties before it assumes the presidency
   in the hopes of bringing turkish-eu ties to a point of no return.

   turkey was forced to react because otherwise it would risk being seen as
   an impotent actor that can only lash out. however, this is still a
   symbolic move b/c turkish vessel can make explorations but turkey will
   need foreign partnership if it finds feasible resources. however, it still
   shows the political willingness to defend turkish cyprus's sovereignty.
   our sources say turkey can afford greek cyprus's exploration phase, but
   its policy is to prevent production at all costs, for which there is still
   time. but the main challenge for turkey will emerge if greek cyprus
   reaches to production phase, if both sides cannot find a compromise in the
   meantime.

   Mike Marchio wrote:

     Hello my favorite cucumber and SBG,

     Here's the Cyprus piece. I'm sorry it's taken so long to get written --
     I've been pulled away a number of times since starting it to deal with
     other pieces, and the issue is not exactly a simple one so it took a bit
     of work to wrap my head around how to present it. I'm not sure if this
     is what you had in mind, but I think it tracks pretty closely with the
     discussion I had with Reva.

     The tentative plan is to run this Wednesday, so if you guys wouldn't
     mind taking a look somewhat early in the morning to give me the go-ahead
     on sending it out to the full list for comments that would be
     appreciated. Unless of course I got everything completely wrong. Then
     I'll be headed back to the drawing board. I hope that isn't the case,
     new developments in the situation have required me to rewrite the
     trigger a few times already and I really hope they don't resolve this
     problem before we get the piece out the door.

     Also, by this point I hate Cyprus so much that I am willing to enlist
     for your people's next war with them, Emre.

     At the bottom are a bunch of news articles where I found various dates
     and facts, if you're interested in verifying that stuff.

     Turkey, Cyprus: Rising Energy Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean

     Teaser: Ankara intends to make its presence felt in the eastern
     Mediterranean by taking on Cyprus over its plan to drill for oil and
     natural gas, but has found backing up its rhetoric more difficult than
     expected.

     Summary: I'll write this after you guys approve the main thrust of the
     piece.

     Analysis:

     A Turkish seismic survey vessel started natural gas exploration Sept. 27
     in an area off the southern coast of Cyprus near where the Cypriot
     government began drilling Sept. 20. Ankara's move to begin exploration
     follows a deal reached Sept. 21 between Turkey and the Turkish Republic
     of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) -- which controls the northeastern half of the
     island -- on a continental shelf delimitation agreement (I don't think
     people are gonna know what that term means? What would be a good
     euphemism? Something like \"claiming part of the continental shelf for
     the TRNC\"? , which gives the coastal state the right to exploit seabed
     resources. and licensing Turkish companies Turkish Petroleum Company
     TPAO to begin energy development there. Turkey has also stated it will
     send naval submarines and frigates to protect the survey vessel, though
     details on this remain unclear.

     The tensions over energy issues have been simmering for years before the
     recent escalation. Turkey has opposed drilling by the Cypriot government
     since plans were initially put forward in 2007, but did not take any
     significant action against the project until the drilling began; the
     deployment of the seismic survey vessel and supporting the TRNC's own
     energy projects is its way of catching up. However, the conflict has
     less to do with energy competition than with demonstrating Turkey's
     geopolitical influence.

   before getting here, we need to explain why turkey opposes Greek Cypriot's
   exploration by laying out disputed division of the island. that greek
   cyprus is an internationally recognized claiming to represent the entire
   island, but it does not have authority over the northern part. TRNC is
   only recognized by Turkey and Turkish troops are stationed in that part.

     Ankara is viewed as a rising power in the region, but thus far has had
     difficulty substantiating its position with anything more than rhetoric.
     After learning the limits of rhetoric in its confrontation with Israel,
     failing to secure even an apology for the deaths of nine Turks in the
     May 2010 flotilla incident, Turkey has looked elsewhere in the eastern
     Mediterranean -- to Cyprus -- for a place to demonstrate its influence.
     With the European Union currently distracted by the Greek debt crisis,
     Ankara believes it has timing on its side but it is unclear how hard it
     is willing to push in making its presence felt, and with the additional
     ships, rigs and exploration vessels being deployed, the chances for
     miscalculation are increasing. it is actually the opposite logic. Cyprus
     thinks this is the best time to push the long standing issue, because
     turkey has problems with israel and EU. Turkey was forced to react,
     basically. as written, this para sounds like Turkey staged the entire
     thing to assert itself in the Med.

     Energy in the Eastern Mediterranean

     Cyprus has been divided since Turkey militarily intervened in 1974
     following a Greek-inspired coup attempt. The island is split between a
     Greek Cypriot southwest, which is internationally recognized, and a
     Turkish Cypriot northeast represented by the TRNC, which is only
     recognized by Ankara, and while peace talks began in 2008 but little
     progress has been made. Turkey has asserted that Cyprus does not have
     the right to exploit the island's seabed resources unilaterally before
     the island's status is resolved,  a right  the Greek Cypriot government
     has claimed as the only official representative of the island at the
     United Nations and a member of the European Union.

     Despite Turkey's protests, the Greek Cypriot government went ahead with
     the development plans, granting U.S.-based Noble Energy an exploration
     license in 2007 in Block 12 (where it began drilling Sept. 20) of
     Cyprus' Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), a maritime boundary that gives a
     state the right to conduct economic activities up to 200 miles from its
     coast. Block 12 is the only area in the EEZ for which Cyprus has granted
     a license, and it abuts the Leviathan and Tamar offshore fields being
     developed by Israel since 1998, also in partnership with Noble Energy.
     http://www.stratfor.com/node/193943/.

     Israel signed an agreement with Cyprus in December 2010 recognizing the
     Cypriot government's EEZ a few months after the May flotilla incident
     severely damaged relations with Turkey, likely not a coincidence.
     (Similar deals have been signed with Egypt in 2003 and Lebanon in 2007.)
     Though Israel has largely stayed out of the current dispute between
     Turkey and Cyprus, it has been happy to see the limits of Turkey's
     rhetorical calls for an end to drilling go unheeded.

     Tensions had already been increasing in eastern Mediterranean after the
     Turkish government announced Sept. 8 that its warships would escort any
     aid ship that sails toward the Gaza Strip to break the Israeli-imposed
     blockade. This announcement was made shortly after a leaked newspaper
     report that said the U.N. investigation on the flotilla incident found
     the Israeli action legal. Even though it is yet to be seen whether
     Turkey would make good on this threat (or even allow another aid ship to
     sail toward Gaza from its ports), it nevertheless indicated that Turkey
     was not officially ruling out a military role in addressing its
     concerns.

     Now Turkey has stated it will send frigates and submarines deployed in
     the eastern Mediterranean to escort the survey vessel conducting energy
     exploration i'm not sure if Turkey stated that. there were reports
     earlier which said three frigates and one submarine were sailing in
     easter Med, but it did not say that it would escort the vessel, and
     believes that the timing of the move may make it easier to cow Cyprus
     into halting the drilling. not really. Cyprus will continue to drill

     Europe and the Timing Question

     Ankara expected that the financial turmoil currently engulfing Europe
     http://www.stratfor.com/node/202511/ -- with Cyprus' main benefactor
     Greece at its epicenter -- would make Cyprus feel more vulnerable to
     Turkish pressure and thus more likely to capitulate. In addition,
     Turkey's relations with the European Union are at their nadir, and
     Ankara is unlikely to adjust its behavior to curry the favor of a bloc
     that appears unlikely to ever let Turkey join it. Indeed, no chapter in
     Turkey-EU accession talks has opened since July 2010, and the Turkish
     government already announced it will suspend all ties with the European
     Union when Cyprus assumes the European Union's rotating presidency in
     the second half of 2012. The division was demonstrated most recently
     when German Chancellor Angela Merkel pointedly stated on the eve of
     Turkish President Abdullah Gul's Sept. 20 visit that Germany did not
     favor Turkey joining the bloc.

     Turkey has not formally dropped its EU bid, but has mainly continued it
     for public relations reasons as it increasingly turns its attention to
     the Middle East, where it has a historic leadership role.
     http://www.stratfor.com/node/196856/. The long-stagnant EU application,
     therefore, will not make Turkey particularly sensitive to the European
     Union's condemnation if Ankara decides to escalate its actions from
     rhetoric and sending surveying vessels to a more active role for the
     naval assets it claims to have deployed to Cyprus.  

     Turkey's Missing U.S. Backing

     In pursuing the Cyprus issue, Turkey had hoped to receive the backing of
     the United States. Washington needs help from Ankara on a number of
     issues, from containing Iran's influence in Iraq after the U.S.
     withdrawal to a ballistic missile defense installation aimed at
     countering Russia. Turkey hoped that, if not outright endorsing Ankara's
     position and calling for Cyprus to end its drilling, the United States
     would at least turn a blind eye to Turkey's efforts. However, this has
     turned out not to be the case, with Washington making clear in a number
     of ways that it is supporting Cyprus in the dispute.
     http://www.stratfor.com/node/202168/

     Ultimately, Turkey decided to confront Cyprus on the energy issue
     because it believed the move, if successful, could serve to prevent it
     from gaining a reputation of being unable to make good on its rhetoric
     or purported influence. If it fails to get Cyprus to stop drilling, it
     will look even more ineffectual than how it began. (Link to intel
     guidance about turkey being all hat and no cattle). Ankara has raised
     the stakes for itself in this dispute, and the question now becomes
     whether it attempts to an understanding with Cyprus on the drilling to
     de-escalate the situation, or if not, how far it is willing to take
     matters in order to prevent another embarrassment.

     http://www.indiainfoline.com/Markets/News/Turkey-signs-oil-agreement-with-Turkish-Republic-of-North-Cyprus/5251504797

     http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist-257933-a-successful-visit-to-new-york.html

     http://www.todayszaman.com/news-257919-kktc-to-start-drilling-in-eastern-mediterranean-soon.html
     http://m.cyprus-mail.com/cyprus/turkish-oil-exploration-ship-sets-out-contest-cyprus-drill-rights/20110924

     http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Turkey-Signs-Oil-Agreement-with-Turkish-Republic-of-North-Cyprus.html

     http://www.euronews.net/2011/09/27/gas-tensions-rise-between-turkey-cyprus/

     http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL5E7KL60K20110921?sp=true

     http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haberYazdir&ArticleID=79242&tip=

 --
 Mike Marchio
 STRATFOR
 mike.marchio@stratfor.com
 612-385-6554
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-28 17:42:13",1,"2012-03-10 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/133458_re-turkey-s-problems-with-neighbors-cyprus-we-re-looking-at.html","emre.dogru@stratfor.com","","bhalla@stratfor.com,mike.marchio@stratfor.com,opcenter@stratfor.com",""
136715,"B3* - Market Update - 20111006 - 12:00:01
","MARKET UPDATE



STOCK MARKETS

S&P 500 INDEX,RTH
As of: 12:57, 10/06/2011
Value: 1154.85
Change: +10.82
Change%: +0.95%

FTSE 100
As of: 11:35, 10/06/2011
Value: 5291.26
Change: +189.09
Change%: +3.71%

DAX
As of: 11:45, 10/06/2011
Value: 5645.25
Change: +172.22
Change%: +3.15%

NIKKEI 225
As of: 02:28, 10/06/2011
Value: 8522.02
Change: +139.039
Change%: +1.66%

HANG SENG INDEX
As of: 04:01, 10/06/2011
Value: 17172.279
Change: +922.01
Change%: +5.67%

RTSI INDEX
As of: 10:45, 10/06/2011
Value: 1271.71
Change: +54.50
Change%: +4.48%

TREASURY BONDS

CBOE Interest Rat
As of: 12:42, 10/06/2011
Yield: 1.967%
Change: +0.062
Change%: +3.25%

Treasury Yield 30
As of: 12:42, 10/06/2011
Yield: 2.936%
Change: +0.053
Change%: +1.84%

COMMODITIES

Crude Oil Nov 11
As of: 12:47, 10/06/2011
Value: 80.94
Change: +1.26
Change%: +1.58%

Brent Crude Oil L
As of: 11:56, 10/06/2011
Value: 103.20
Change: +0.59
Change%: +0.57%

Copper Oct 11
As of: 12:07, 10/06/2011
Value: 3.2365
Change: +0.1375
Change%: +4.44%

Gold Oct 11
As of: 10:50, 10/06/2011
Value: 1641.60
Change: +1.30
Change%: +0.08%

Corn Dec 11
As of: 12:47, 10/06/2011
Value: 607.50
Change: +2.00
Change%: +0.33%

Wheat Dec 11
As of: 12:48, 10/06/2011
Value: 618.75
Change: -6.50
Change%: -1.04%

Soybeans Nov 11
As of: 12:48, 10/06/2011
Value: 1168.25
Change: +4.50
Change%: +0.39%

Rough Rice Nov 11
As of: 12:41, 10/06/2011
Value: 16.005
Change: -0.01
Change%: -0.06%

CURRENCIES

EUR to USD
As of: 12:57, 10/06/2011
Value: 1.3397
Change: 
Change%: %

USD to JPY
As of: 12:55, 10/06/2011
Value: 76.675
Change: 
Change%: %

--
STRATFOR
Market Update v1.0
Kevin Stech <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>
","2011-10-06 19:00:02",1,"2012-02-27 02:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/136715_b3-market-update-20111006-12-00-01-.html","markets@research.stratfor.com","mailto:alerts@stratfor.com","alerts@stratfor.com",""
138785,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/RUSSIA/ENERGY - Turkey may end Russia
 natural gas deal - TR 325
","   AKP wants to create its own energy giants - Russian style. Ciner and Calik
   are the examples of this, but they are not ready to assume such projects.
   The word is that Calik screwed in S-C pipeline. I don't know AKP's
   relationship with BOTAS but I don't think they have difficulty to control
   it.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, September 29, 2011 8:09:09 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/RUSSIA/ENERGY - Turkey may end
   Russia natural gas deal - TR 325

    i have the same question as peter.  what is AKP's relationship with
   Botas?  what private firms are they trying to give a boost to?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Michael Wilson\" <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, September 29, 2011 11:59:57 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/RUSSIA/ENERGY - Turkey may end
   Russia natural gas deal - TR 325

   not much but sending anywyas

    Russia's Gazprom says its Turkish partner has not asked it to sever gas  
    contract                                                                 
                                                                             
    Excerpt from report by Gazprom-owned, editorially independent Russian    
    radio station Ekho Moskvy on 29 September                                
                                                                             
    [Presenter] Unexpected news came from Ankara today. Turkey is            
    threatening to refuse to buy Russian gas, if Moscow does not lower       
    prices. The contract with Gazprom for natural gas deliveries expires in  
    December. Aleksey Golubev has the details.                               
                                                                             
    [Correspondent] Ankara is demanding not just a discount, but a           
    considerable reduction of the price. Turkish Minister of Energy and      
    Natural Resources Taner Yildiz has told journalists that if an           
    acceptable answer came from Russia regarding conditions of purchases,    
    then it would be considered in Ankara. Otherwise the matter would be     
    handed over to the private sector, which would then carry out bidding,   
    Yildiz stressed. He also added that if it was not possible to extend the 
    agreements with Russia, which were signed as far back as 25 years ago,   
    then Istanbul would not have difficulties with natural gas supplies.     
                                                                             
    At the same time, these statements were perceived with a surprise in     
    Moscow, since Gazprom's Turkish partners had not yet officially asked    
    the company about a review of the gas contract, Gazprom's press          
    secretary Sergey Kupriyanov has told Ekho Moskvy [radio].                
                                                                             
    [Kupriyanov] In our work with the Botas company, we have not yet         
    received any notices to the effect that they intend not to extend the    
    existing contract or sever it.                                           
                                                                             
    [Correspondent] I shall note that the annual volume of gas bought by     
    Turkey from Russia amounts to 30bn cu.m. and in the past Ankara already  
    asked Moscow to reduce the contractual prices. [Passage omitted: further 
    background]                                                              
                                                                             
    Source: Ekho Moskvy radio, Moscow, in Russian 1400 gmt 29 Sep 11         
                                                                             
    BBC Mon FS1 FsuPol EU1 EuroPol ib                                        

              A(c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

   On 9/29/11 10:13 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

     what's the turkish govt got against their own company?

     On 9/29/11 7:47 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

       As far as I understand, Turkey does not want to end importing gas from
       Russia. The Turkish government just wants to private firms to replace
       BOTAS. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: \"Lauren Goodrich\" <goodrich@stratfor.com>
       To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
       Sent: Thursday, September 29, 2011 3:19:33 PM
       Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/RUSSIA/ENERGY - Turkey may end
       Russia natural gas deal - TR 325

       But it isn't like Turkey as an alternative right now, so it can't
       really play hardball.
       On the flipside, I keep hearing how Russia will decrease the price for
       most major players this next year. It actually realized it was toooooo
       overreaching in high price.

       On 9/29/11 7:12 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

          CODE: TR 325  
         ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Source in Turkey
         SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Turkish Energy and national security expert
         PUBLICATION: Yes
         SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
         ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
         DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
         SPECIAL HANDLING: None
         SOURCE HANDLER: Emre

         The Western Line expires this year. We knew since two years that the
         contract between Gazprom and BOTAS (that was signed in 1986) would
         be replaced by a powerful private firm or two firms when it expires.
         But of course it was quite hard to grant this contract to private
         firms due to legal and technical difficulties. (The government
         understood that this was not possible only last year). The process
         was going to be exactly the same as five years ago, which granted a
         part of gas contracts to private firms. At the time, the strategy
         was to allow companies (permitted by Gazprom beforehand) to bid in
         Turkey's auction. In other words, five companies approved by the two
         countries shared the deal. Probably this time Turkey pursues an
         alternative strategy to act more freely. By saying that \"we will
         cancel the contract if the Russians do not decrease the gas price\",
         Turkey actually tells the private firms to go ahead and reach a deal
         with Gazprom and then apply for license to the Turkish government to
         operate the pipeline.

         Source does not know which private firms will be given approval yet.

          

         From: Emre Dogru [mailto:emre.dogru@stratfor.com]
         Sent: Thursday, September 29, 2011 1:32 PM
         To: mfd 2030
         Subject: Fwd: G3 - TURKEY/RUSSIA/ENERGY - Turkey may end Russia
         natural gas deal

          

         Faruk abi bu isin asli astari var midir?

         Turkey may end Russia natural gas deal

         http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=79561

          

         The contract between Turkey and Russia on natural gas transfer via
         Western Line will expire in the end of 2011.

          

         Turkish Energy & Natural Resources Minister Taner Yildiz has said
         that Turkey demanded a reduction from Russia in the price of natural
         gas transferred via Western Line.

         We asked for a reduction in the price of natural gas which we import
         from Russia via Western Line, and if Russia does not respond to our
         demand, we will end the contract, added Yildiz who spoke to
         reporters after a workshop in Ankara on Thursday.

         The contract between Turkey and Russia on natural gas transfer via
         Western Line will expire in the end of 2011.

         Noting that Turkey imported an important part of its natural gas and
         oil need, Yildiz said that natural gas raw material prices increased
         39 percent in the last 29 months.

         If Russia does not make the reduction we have demanded, we will end
         the contract, said Yildiz.

         AA

          

 --

  

 Benjamin Preisler

 +216 22 73 23 19

         --
         --
         Emre Dogru
         STRATFOR  
         Cell: +90.532.465.7514
         Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
         emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

       --

       Lauren Goodrich
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

       --
       --
       Emre Dogru
       STRATFOR  
       Cell: +90.532.465.7514
       Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
       emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-29 22:17:40",1,"2012-03-19 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/138785_re-alpha-insight-turkey-russia-energy-turkey-may-end-russia.html","emre.dogru@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
140775,"Re: [latam] For Comment - Brazil Risk Briefing
","   comments in red.

   BRAZIL

    

   Does Brazil have a stable legal system and rule of law? 

   A.             Brazil has a relatively stable and gradually improving
   legal system

   A.             Courts are largely overburdened with cases and pursuing
   breaches of contract can take years, at a high cost

   A.             Throughout the Brazilian system, creatively circumventing
   the law is a cultural norm

    

   Is there a tradition of government secession and stable transition in the
   country? If so, when will the next significant elections take place? If
   not, are revolutions and coups common?

   A.             Government transitions have been stable since the end of
   the military dictatorship in the 1980s

   A.             The next national level elections will be held in 2014,
   during which the presidency and congressional seats will be up for dispute

   A.             A plebiscite at the end of 2011 will decide whether or not
   to split the northeastern state of ParA! into three separate legal
   entities.

    

   What is the political and economic relationship like between the United
   States and Brazil?

   A.             The United States and Brazil have a primarily cooperative
   relationship, punctuated with periodic disagreements

   A.             As Brazil grows in economic and political strength, it has
   begun to see itself as a power with the potential to rival the United
   States in the Western Hemisphere.

   A.             Brazilian-US relations can at times be standoffish and
   unproductive.

   A.             Brazil seeks to strategically hinder US influence in South
   America, a policy that has largely been facilitated by US focus on other
   regions of the world over the past two decades.

   A.             The United States is the main source of foreign investment,
   and a major trading partner. 

    

   Who are Brazila**s primary trading partners?

   A.             Brazila**s primary trading partner is China, to which
   Brazil exports primarily raw commodities.

   A.             The United States and Argentina are Brazila**s next most
   important trade partners. Both import manufactured goods from Brazil,
   which helps to compensate for the impact of Chinaa**s recent flood of
   interest in raw commodities.

    

   Is there material regional differences found in the country, such as
   tribal and religious influences?

   A.             Most investment and population centers are located along
   the coastal regions.

   A.             The area around Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro are
   particularly well developed and becoming more so as local oil deposits
   become developed. Many areas in the State of Minas Gerais is pretty
   industrialized and are not along the coast, just like Serra Gaucha in the
   state of Rio Grande do Sul, which is the second largest metal mechanic
   industrial area in Brazil.  

   A.             Outside of the main population centers, Brazil is
   characterized by a slowly developing agricultural sector in the south and
   southwest (agriculture in the south has been developing from a long time,
   Brazil is one of the main grain producers in the world, it is not a slowly
   developing agricultural sector) , the Amazon rainforest in the northwest
   and poor, less developed regions in the northeast. Keep in mind that in
   Manaus, in Amazon, there is zona franca de Manaus where there are 600 main
   multinational and national high tech companies producing electronic
   products)

   A.             Overall, there is a high level of regional competition in
   Brazil. States compete heavily with one another for funding from federal
   sources, and individual Brazilians tend to feel a strong affinity for
   their home state a** something that can influence federal policy depending
   on the individuals in power.

    

   What is the general business structure found in each country and are there
   families or other types of entities that control large components of
   business?

    

   A.             Brazil boasts a large number of corporations that dominate
   the business landscape, as well as many medium and small companies in the
   minority.

   A.             Brazila**s biggest companies enjoy a great deal of
   government support both on the domestic scene and in international
   markets. 

   A.             A number of families and individuals feature prominently on
   the Brazilian business system, including: Rede Globo is bigger than
   Bandeirantes and SBT together and is commanded by MarinhoA's family. Rede
   Globo is the 3rd largest tv commercial tv in the world only loosing to CBS
   and NBC. I would also include here the Setubal and Moreira Sakes  and
    families that own the Itau-Unibanco which is the second largest Latin
   American Bank.

   o      Bandeirantes Communications Group, a media conglomerate that
   controls many Television channels and Radio Stations.  a** Controlled
   mostly by the Saad family.

   o      Odebretch S. A a** Conglomerate expanded into many fields,
   primarily construction-related. Controlled by the Odebretch family.

   o      Gerdau a** 17th largest Steel Producer in the world, founded by the
   Gerdau family

   o      SBT a** Sistema Brasileiro de TelevisA-L-o, founded and operated by
   Silvio Santos.

   o      The EBX conglomerate a** Operator of various spin-off companies
   like OGX (oil and gas) and MMX (mining), it Is owned by Brazilian
   billionair, Eike Batista.

   o      RBS a** Media conglomerate prevalent in Brazila**s south that is
   owned by the Sikortsky family

   o      Klabin a** A paper products and paper recycler owned by the Klabin
   family.

   Is corruption common? Is it possible to conduct business in the country
   without violating the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act or other
   regulations? How does a**corruptiona** manifest itself in business?

   A.             Corruption is very prevalent in Brazil

   A.             Bribery, influence peddling and nepotism are common and
   Brazilians often consider it a point of pride to creatively circumvent the
   law

   A.             It should not, however, be considered quite as corrupt or
   as damaging an environment as Mexico.

   A.             Nevertheless, business done in Brazil should be done with
   extreme caution so as to not violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

   In regards to the regulatory environment, are the same regulations in
   place and enforced for foreign businesses as they are for domestic
   enterprises? 

   A.             Taxes at the federal level are legally identical for both
   foreign and domestic companies. At a state level there have been
   complaints that value-added taxes have been applied unevenly depending on
   the nationality of the company.

   A.             Though the government largely divested itself of
   state-owned companies, it remains heavily involved in Brazila**s economy.
   Powerful Brazilian companies such as electricity firm Eletrobras and
   hydrocarbons firm Petrobras remain government controlled despite being
   largely privatized.

   A.             Businesses should be prepared for heavy government
   championing of domestic firms as a general rule.

   A.             Public procurement is heavily biased towards products of
   Brazilian companies.

   A.             Many sectors are subject to foreign ownership limitations,
   including media, communications, aviation, transportation, and mining

    

   Are environmental regulations in place and are such regulations properly
   enforced?

   A.             Brazil has implemented a number of environmental norms and
   regulations. Enforcement is not always possible.

   A.             Enforcement in urban areas where there is a government
   presence is much more likely and common than in more rural areas.

   A.             Every business considering investing in Brazil should be
   aware that environmental issues can quickly become political. Because of
   national cultural attitudes about the environmental status of the Amazon
   rainforest, issues of environmental degradation can take on a national
   character.

   A.             Should an environmental issue become politicized, protests
   can be expected.

    

   Is there a tradition of capitalism and respect for private property or are
   nationalizations and seizures of natural resources or foreign companies
   operating in any sector common?

   A.             Nationalizations are not generally a problem in Brazil

   How difficult is it for a U.S. company to get money in and out of each
   country after investing in a country's bank or mining operations? For
   example, are there repatriation limits of moving earnings? Are there
   onerous taxes and regulations on earnings?

   A.             Brazil is currently experiencing extreme upward pressure on
   the value of the Brazilian currency, the Real. Caused by inflows of
   foreign direct and portfolio investment, the inflows have harmed Brazilian
   exports and encouraged higher consumer spending. As a result, the
   government has imposed limited capital restrictions including:

   o      Inflows for fixed income investments  -- 6%

   o      Inflows for portfolio investments -- 2%

   o      Capital Gains Remmitances -- 15%

   o      Profits on FDI Remitances -- 0.38%

   o      Remmittances related to technology transfers -- 25%

   Is STRATFOR aware of any possible changes to taxation, removing money from
   the country, or any other types of capital constraints in general? There
   is a new tax for health care tax that the govt wants to created by the end
   of this year or next year. A rough draft is being analyzed by Congress and
   the minister of institutional relations, Ideli Salvati said that she hopes
   this tax can be created soon. The govt thought to create a tax for
   financial transactions, but Congress rejected and is thinking about a
   different one. 

   A.             While we are not aware of anything in specific planned by
   Brazil, it should be noted that Brazil has structural constraints that
   make inflation a perennial problem for the country. Without sufficient
   infrastructure, costs tend to rise quickly, with the impact felt
   immediately by Brazila**s poor.

   A.             The combination of factors means that Brazil will
   consistently seek to limit growth in order to mitigate inflationary
   tendencies.

   What are the major security threats for foreign business travelers and
   country-based nationals working in each country, to include threats posed
   by terrorism, crime, political stability and war and insurgency?

   A.             The major threat in Brazil is by criminal organizations and
   petty crime

   A.             Cargo theft, smuggling and drug trafficking are exceedingly
   prevalent in Brazil and should be taken into account in any investment.

   A.             Any personnel traveling in Brazil should exercise standard
   levels of situational awareness for traveling in Latin America, as armed
   robbery, kidnapping and other crimes are prevalent.

   Is there a presence of revolutionary or secessionist groups? If so, how
   much of a risk do they pose to the government and foreign businesses and
   their employees operating in the country?

   A.             There are no major revolutionary or secessionist groups in
   Brazil.

    

   In regards to the abovementioned questions, are any major shifts in the
   present conditions expected within the next ten years?

   A.             The world Cup in 2014 and the summer Olympics of 2016 will
   be held in Rio de Janeiro as well as other cities around the country. In
   the lead up to these events, the government will seek to crack down on
   local criminal organizations, generating short term destabilization in
   these areas. There will be an increase in economic development efforts
   during that time.

   A.             The factors leading to brazila**s current boom are largely
   dependent on favorable international conditions and the boom generated by
   the stabilization in the early 1990s of the countrya**s economy. The
   current rate of growth and development should be considered with caution
   in the absence of major overhauls to the Brazilian economic and
   infrastructure systems. Without significant improvement of the base level
   education in Brazil, the cost of skilled labor should be expected to rise
   significantly over the long haul. Limited infrastructure will mean high
   competition for inherently restricted resources, causing bottlenecks in
   growth.

    

    

   --
   Karen Hooper
   Latin America Analyst
   o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
   c: 512.750.7234
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-11 13:38:59",1,"2012-08-02 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/140775_re-latam-for-comment-brazil-risk-briefing-.html","paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com","mailto:latam@stratfor.com","rbaker@stratfor.com,latam@stratfor.com",""
152737,"Re: G3* - LEBANON/CYPRUS - FM to go to Cyprus for talks on maritime
	border, says Qabbani
","   this is quite interesting. leb already has a maritime border with cyprus
   (i think it was signed in 2007) but the leb parliament did not ratify it.
   lebanon also wants to ramp up its exploration activities in eastern med,
   as it has its own EEZ problems with Israel. I very much doubt that Cyprus
   will do anything in favor of Leb at this time around, because Cyprus
   highly depends on Israeli support against Turkey's assertiveness.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Michael Wilson\" <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
   To: \"alerts\" <alerts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, October 17, 2011 7:58:06 PM
   Subject: G3* - LEBANON/CYPRUS - FM to go to Cyprus for talks on
   maritime        border, says Qabbani

   FM to go to Cyprus for talks on maritime border, says Qabbani
   October 17, 2011   share
      
   http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=322952

   Parliamentary Energy and Water Committee chief Mohammad Qabbani said on
   Monday that Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour will head to Cyprus to continue
   talks about amending the maritime treaty between the two countries.

   a**Mansour will head to Cyprus to amend the treaty made with Cyprus
   concerning Lebanona**s economic zone and to prepare for the treaty [to
   demarcate the border] with Cyprus,a** the National News agency quoted
   Qabbani as saying.

   a**[Simultaneously] discussions will be held with Syria to demarcate the
   maritime borders between [Lebanon and Syria],a** he added.

   Qabbani also said that preparations will start in the first half of 2012
   to give licenses for companies seeking to drill for petroleum resources
   along Lebanona**s maritime coast.

   In July, Israel's cabinet approved a map of the Jewish State's proposed
   maritime borders with Lebanon, which is to be submitted to the UN.

   Following Israela**s approval of the map, Energy Minister Gebran Bassil
   countered that Lebanon will not give up its maritime rights.

   Lebanon and Israel differ on their interpretation of their maritime
   borders, which has become a contentious issue following the discovery of
   potential offshore petroleum resources.

   To read more:
   http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=322952#ixzz1b3gKKkB2
   Only 25% of a given NOW Lebanon article can be republished. For
   information on republishing rights from NOW Lebanon:
   http://www.nowlebanon.com/Sub.aspx?ID=125478

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-18 08:28:58",1,"2012-03-10 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/152737_re-g3-lebanon-cyprus-fm-to-go-to-cyprus-for-talks-on.html","emre.dogru@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
155109,"Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Dom & Fp Issues - TR5
","   pretty decent comments on domestic issues, except for Dogan's position.
   The source tries to play down Dogan's opposition against AKP. AKP doesn't
   forget how Dogan media group allied with the military before Gul's
   election as the president.
   Also, comments in the first paragraph (about who will get the U.S. as the
   patron) is typical Turkish.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Antonia Colibasanu\" <colibasanu@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, April 28, 2010 5:32:54 PM
   Subject: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Dom & Fp Issues - TR5

   SOURCE CODE: TR5
   PUBLICATION: Not Applicable
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Left-leaning secularist senior journalist with
   Hurriyet  

   ATTRIBUTION: Not Applicable
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Not Applicable
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Kamran

    

   The following are responses to the questions in bold.

    

   1) What is happening between the AKP and TSK in the light of the Ergenekon
   and Sledgehammer probes. While the political position of the general staff
   weakening, I doubt that they will go quietly into the night. At some point
   they need to say a**this far and no furthera**. How do you see this
   playing out moving forward in terms of the militarya**s response and how
   far do you think the AKP will push (surely they want to avoid
   miscalculating and hence over-stepping)?

    

   We have to think this issue in the global context. In a nutshell, the
   decades-old power struggle between TSK and governments has always been
   about which side gets support from Washington. Throughout the cold war and
   even until the end of 1990s, the military had the upper hand. Now, the
   situation is changing as US is convinced it has found a strong ally in
   AKP, after long tedious years of weak coalition governments. Some a**
   unconfirmed a** talk between alleged coup plotters reveals the frustration
   of the military, while columns written by pro-military columnists in the
   past few years also reveal an effort to a**win back the hearts and
   mindsa** of US.  Ilhan Selcuk of Cumhuriyet comes to mind. Unless a
   a**change of hearta** in Washington does not take place, the government
   has the upper hand. Having said that, they are treading carefully, despite
   all noise going on about the military getting weaker through arrests etc.
   Over-stepping is really a danger for the government here, but if the
   military decides to a**cross the linea** and go harsher against AKP, it
   will have to do it a**despite the US.a** As a NATO-member, I doubt they
   have the courage to do this. As I said, the issue has to be taken in the
   global context. For example, if neocons were still in power in US, I doubt
   they would let the government trample upon the military like this; they
   have an understanding that a**governments come and go, but TSK is always
   there.a**

    

   2) What do you make of the clamor over the increasingly influence of the
   Gulenites in civil society and even the stat, e.g. security, educational,
   media sectors. What is the nature of their relationship to the AKP? To
   what extent does the AKP view the FG movement as an asset and a liability?

    

   This is complicated. The a**Islamic rootsa** of AKP are far away from the
   roots of Gulen movement in terms of Islamic schools. You wont see any
   comment from the PM that praises Gulen, for example. But the two seem to
   have found a common ground in that the AKP lets Gulenists roam free and
   increase its influence, while the latter accepts to be a propaganda
   machine for the government through media etc. As in all alliances, this
   alliance inherently involves a rivalry. I believe Gulen knows his place
   well and will not cross the lines here. But after he dies, that is another
   question. The Kemalist view of a a**AKP-FG coalition governmenta** seems
   too much stretching the reality to me. Still, Erdogan may be witnessing
   the creation of a monster here. The picture may become clearer with the
   death of Gulen and the position of an heir, I would say.

    

   3) What is the status of the AKPa**s efforts to control the old secularist
   business elite and thus promote a new conservative one? You guys are well
   aware of how it is playing out in the media sector with the feud with
   Dogan. But how is the struggle playing out in other sectors. Obviously
   this is not a black and white issue as the AKP wants to maintain support
   among the established business groups. How does this all work out?

    

   AKP is an a**expansionista** movement, which runs contrary to the
   traditional Islamic movements in Turkey. Old movements, especially the
   Erbakan movement that Erdogan and co. were born out of, were
   a**introvert,a** meaning they just wanted to protect their lifestyles,
   practices etc. and were in essence a**on the defensive.a** AKP is not.
   They are on the offensive, imposing their way on others, which is far more
   dangerous for those who understand this. AKP knows that it has to have the
   backing of big business to stay in power, while big business knows it
   needs a a**stablea** government, similar to the case with the US here. If
   you look at the governmenta**s attitude on labor regulations, trade union
   policies, workplae relations etc. you will see this as a a**purely
   capitalista** government, even one reminiscent of the 18th century UK.
   Thus, they have full backing from big business. When people like Dogan a**
   willingly or unwillingly, as no media boss could be able to control his
   outlets on a regular basis a** challenge this through media criticism,
   that means they have overstepped the line and have to be a**corrected.a**
   On the other hand, the AKP also wants to have a**its owna** business elite
   rising up, and they have taken important steps in this. But the a**rise of
   the green capitala** or a**rise of the Anatolian tigersa** should not be
   misleading, as Ia**d say the total wealth of all these a**greena**
   holdings would barely reach the wealth of, say, SabancA 1/2 Holding. The
   picture has been changing only in media, as pro-government newspapers and
   TVs have much more clout now. Still, the Dogan group reigns supreme.

    

   4) On the foreign policy front, STRATFORa**s view is that Iraq is the main
   focus for Ankaraa**s efforts to expand geopolitically, especially since it
   needs to counter the rise of Iran in its southeastern neighbor. How do you
   see Turkey approaching this objective, especially with its problems over
   the Kurdish issue and Tehran having far more influence because of
   demographics? What is Ankara trying to achieve in terms of the new
   coalition government. What is its relationship with former interim prime
   minister Iyad Allawia**s al-Iraqiyah list, which came out in first place.
   How much progress has been made in terms of seeking influence among the
   Kurds and more importantly, the Shia. Since a key aspect of Turkish
   foreign policy vis-A -vis Iraq is to secure an alternative source of
   energy, reducing dependency on Azerbaijan and Russia. Where do Ankaraa**s
   stand there?

    

   As I write this, news came that Turkey has officially invited Barzani, the
   KRG chief, to Ankara. This is a huge step for a state that still acts with
   reflexes over a**breakupa** fears. Thus, the relationship with Iraqa**s
   Kurds are bound to get better, followed by really strong trade and
   commerce relations; in no time, Kurdistan has become the most important
   source of income for Turkeya**s south-southeast cities. Iraq is fast
   rising up as one of the top5 trade partners, and this is really because of
   Kurdistan. Ia**d say the a**Kurdish openinga** of the government is linked
   to these developments closely, as a Turkey that has not solved its Kurdish
   problem cannot maintain the desired relation with Iraqi Kurdistan. But the
   problem is that the Turkish public hasna**t got much idea of how strong
   and rooted the PKK is, while the government insists that a**PKK and Kurds
   are separate problems.a** So, my opinion is that the a**Kurdish openinga**
   will collapse noisily, as it fails to address even the most basic demands
   of Kurds and fails to recognize even the BDP as a party to the issue.
   Turkeya**s relations with Iraqi Shia are, Ia**d say, sour, as the
   government explicitly has tried to cultivate relations with the Sunni due
   to its Sunni roots. This is where the a**pragmatic facea** of AKP went off
   stage and the ideology face came up. Unless Turkey can have a balanced and
   equal-to-equal relation with all factions in Iraq, its
   a**micro-imperiala** aspirations are doomed. We have seen such initiatives
   collapse many times, for exmple the a**Turkic openinga** in the aftermath
   of the fall of the USSR.

    

   6) What are Ankaraa**s goals with regards to its relationship with Israel?
   Clearly, Turkey wants to have a relationship with Israel but how far is
   Ankara willing to allow relations to sour? IF you could elaborate on the
   various angles to this issue (Syria, Iran, and the Palestinians).

    

   This is also a global issue, related to 1. Obamaa**s seeing the solving of
   Mideast question as a lever to his overall regional policies and 2. A
   diminishing power of the US in the Mideast due to the destructive Bush
   policies. As the AKP has observed the needs of the US administration in
   the Mideast, it has a**learneda** to change positions. Learning is a very
   important aspect of this government, mind you. It can change positions
   suddenly as it recognizes a global shift, and it does this well. The
   position change allows to further convince the US to rein in Israel, while
   also propping up Turkey as a a**regional power.a** Thus, crudely put, the
   AKP is able to turn to Washington and say: a**Here is my clout, at your
   service. But this clout is only sustainable if we solve this
   problem.a**Again, if the clumsy military had its old power, Turkey could
   never take such a stand, as the a**alliancea** between Israel and Turkey,
   brokered by the US, is essentially a military one. The Palestinian
   relation is different and I, as a supporter of the Palestinian cause, see
   what is coming as very destructive to the rights of Palestinians. The
   US-Israeli policies, with a**helpa** from Hamas, have managed to split
   Palestine in two. The conflict is increasingly being perceived as one of
   religion, not one of nation, a trend in accordance with the global shift
   in perceptions. The AKP, due to its Islamist roots, has no objection to
   this. So, the a**Palestine relationsa** are in essence relations with
   Gaza. The Islamic NGOs out here are also working on a**the plight of
   Gazaa** as opposed to the plight of Palestinians. This I could write a
   book on. But suffice it to say that while pushing for a solution to the
   Palestinian problem, the AKP is helping to shift the perceptions about
   that very same problem for the worse, acting like an a**outsider Hamas.a**
   This is a a**nation problema** and trying to cover it with an Islamic veil
   will not change its nature, only postpone a solution.

    

   7. What kind of role is Turkey playing in the U.S.-Iranian conflict? How
   successful has Ankara been in mediating between DC and Tehran? How does
   Turkey seek to balance its ties with the United States and Iran?

    

   The problem with this government is that they are trying to be mediators
   in everything, or posing as mediators, but are not being accepted as such
   by parties of any conflict. Turkey could have convinced the US that it
   could have some sort of role in solving the issue. But I really doubt it
   has convinced Iran on being a mediator. It has not convinced Syria or
   Israel in other problems, to remind you. a**Playing the mediatora**
   without clout could be a dangerous game around here. Ia**d say that the
   policy on Iran has been the most disastrous policy of this government, as
   it does not contribute to a solution and may even be worsening the
   situation.

    

    

    

    

    

    

   -------

   Kamran Bokhari

   STRATFOR

   Regional Director

   Middle East & South Asia

   T: 512-279-9455

   C: 202-251-6636

   F: 905-785-7985

   bokhari@stratfor.com 

   www.stratfor.com

   Stratfor 

    

    
","2010-04-28 16:58:20",1,"2012-03-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/155109_re-insight-turkey-dom-and-fp-issues-tr5-.html","emre.dogru@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
156443,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   Brown

   On 10/24/11 11:50 AM, Morgan Kauffman wrote:

     If you're going to cover the vigilante/robin-hood aspect, I found this
     in today's sweeps: 
     http://arstechnica.com/business/news/2011/10/anonymous-takes-down-darknet-child-porn-site-on-tor-network.ars?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss
     and 
     http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2395175,00.asp#fbid=KvMufY_Mq3a

     They've got a sub-group that tries to hunt down child-abuse sites and
     users - last week they published a list of 1500 names of visitors to one
     site, in addition to performing a couple of DDoS attacks to the server.

     On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

       Link: themeData

       I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
       broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
       almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
       Reviewing their list of attacks
       (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of the
       cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the internet
       . The interesting thing when it comes to their interactions with the
       cartels is the dubious role they play: at the same time they can be
       fighting crime by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can
       also put lives in risk.

       However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by Anonymous.
       The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can conduct a cyber
       attack under \"Anonymous\" is worrisome.
       (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

       If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government websites,
       or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know more about these
       guys. Who they are? What are they interested in? How they operate? Who
       they have targeted so far? How can I defend myself from them? In what
       countries are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
       them to achieve any particular goal?

       On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can
         build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to
         innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing
         on journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the
         situation.  This has long term implications in not just Mexico. 
         They don't consider the consequences of their actions and they act
         without understanding the environment.  It was the same when they
         released information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
         Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
           possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
           Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by Anonymous,
           threatens revealing personal information on cartels as well as
           states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
           outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped.
           According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous
           Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers in
           Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although
           that is speculation.

           Link: themeData
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
           denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
           individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
           most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
           the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
           identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists
           who collude with criminal cartels. No mention of banks that accept
           their laundered money? That is when they would be a threat to
           their bottom line. They can always buy cabbies, cops, politicos
           and journos but tracing banks.  The hacker group demanded Los
           Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
           consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
           was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
           their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
           potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and
           hackers, presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
           lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting
           on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

           What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
           threat to Mexican cartels.
                o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
           media
                o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash
           out at cartels

           While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
           threat
                o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
           identifiable information on cartel members
                o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire
           on cartels
                o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
           communications, identifiable information on cartels members have
           to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                       Anonymous
                       o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
           illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

           Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
           ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result,
           their understanding of cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous
           may act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but
           this may blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even
           know the impact of any online assault of cartels.
                o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
           will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
           individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
           drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
           halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not
           have a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
           Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
           Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
           consequences from this.
                o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
           are willing to go protect their operations.
                   o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                   o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
           community before, coercing computer science majors into working
           for them.
                   o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
           discovering hackers within Mexico.

            

           On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

             Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
             there are several issues to address and fix here.

             These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
             discussion:

                  o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine
             but we can't gloss over that fact
                  o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
             between stealing bank records from government computers and
             overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                  o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
             information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
             kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
             talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
             politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
             going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
             killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
             operational details, because they acted as informants, because
             they exposed links with officials or because they somehow
             sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
             information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                  o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
             realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a
             measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity
             except for the technical ability by a very small number of its
             members to infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
             information. Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on
             a network that is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
             Where else could information be found? Government databases?
             Once we know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
             know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                  o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
             trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
             killings done by people who may not understand the difference
             between an anon hacker and a blogger.

             On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

               wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                   Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                   From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
               Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                     To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

               you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need
               a lot more work

               You need to lay out:

               a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
               section is unclear
               b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
               therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
               c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
               anything
               d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
               anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

               I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
               insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
               levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
               the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
               is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
               business online, in a protected fashion.

               Karen Hooper
               Latin America Analyst
               o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
               c: 512.750.7234
               STRATFOR
               www.stratfor.com
               On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

               On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Link: themeData

               Trigger

               Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
               lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
               denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
               released depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
               screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels.
               Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican? American?
               taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude
               with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
               release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
               The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels
               and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
               cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los
               Zetas leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
               little experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
               experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
               that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                

               In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
               mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
               their demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be
               mentioned right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
               threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so we
               understand who this guy is and why/how he was abducted. are
               not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
               information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
               will likely respond with violence against individuals revealed
               as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?.
               It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who
               collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving
               the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
               means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
               effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
               Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
               their threats against any individual using online media WC....
               you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers
               here. against the cartels.

                

               The Battle Space

               Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
               realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
               of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
               geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
               exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
               are physical people tho live in the real world. They have
               names and addresses - although most of them are likely outside
               of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their technical
               capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
               Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
               the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's
               population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
               what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
               Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
               revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run
               operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
               e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than
               the jihadists.)

               Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
               base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
               believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
               through the internet. This gives an opening for people
               disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
               dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience =
               troll. Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
               themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious IT
               capability. 

               The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
               been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

               The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US
               and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking
               to maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
               commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
               and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from
               insight. There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't
               have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
               amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels
               like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of
               threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel
               on cartel violence. While battling each other, cartels still
               face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
               avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
               have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
               bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok...
               but that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need
               to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't
               just assume they have no cyber presence.

                

               Anonymous' Weapons

               Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
               criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability
               to combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
               disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
               anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites
               in Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
               admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
               guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
               campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
               overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main
               stream media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
               to their operations, that they have continued to target
               journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
               Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
               the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
               denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
               here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

               As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
               risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to
               suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing information they
               threaten to release. By releasing identities of individuals
               cooperating with Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life
               of those individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
               sensitive information is limited by what is available via the
               Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
               should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
               However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
               governments computer networks, information available to
               Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire. 
               what are you trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                

               Cartel's Defense

                           A counter response to the video? by the cartels
               has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a
               kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun
               addressing the threat posed by hackers so... how has there not
               been a counter response? also this undermines your statements
               above about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
               underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How did
               they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very
               well give you some indication to the technical ability of the
               cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
               wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
               rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
               whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You
               can assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they are
               working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening
               cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
               information including locations is only available if a hacker
               chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy
               enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
               Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
               online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or
               start employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
               Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                           Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
               Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
               help of computer science majors through personal threats has
               been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported
               where?.  Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
               and drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of
               technical experts to help combat any threat by computer
               hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been
               demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of
               identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
               enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
               experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find
               hackers through investigations. A) How do you know they are
               not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm
               goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
               track down

                           In order to compete with an online foe, cartels
               will likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar
               with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
               operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they
               wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
               communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
               members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
               likely continue to be used to scare online media into
               submission i'm not really seeing the online
               media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
               manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
               hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life.
               Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of
               Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able to
               seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
               Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go on and
               shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

 --
 Sincerely,

 Marko Primorac
 Tactical Analyst
 marko.primorac@stratfor.com
 Tel: +1 512.744.4300
 Cell: +1 717.557.8480
","2011-10-24 18:59:47",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/156443_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","marko.primorac@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
156506,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   On 10/24/11 1:50 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     I agree. I haven't seen any defining attributes of Anonymous as a group.
     They may not even know the identities of each other. There are several
     facebook / twitter Anonymous pages, which seem to be run by different
     individuals.

     What about defining Anonymous in terms of the individual? Instead of
     saying Anonymous attacking cartels, Individuals acting under the
     Anonymous name.... Yes

     -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents have access to,
     and doubt they have such information that provides any sort of
     existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 
     This is a problem with the threat assessment. Technically, anything
     cartel related (emails, online transactions, Mexican LEA information,
     etc.) would be available to a hacker, but we don't know if they have had
     access to this information, or if the hackers interested in harming
     cartels are capable. It's not even confirmed hackers have revealing
     information on cartel supporters which the video claims. Yes, it's not
     exactly a 'threat assessment'.  just say we don't know.  And we can say
     we doubt they have it because they haven't shown much capabilities to
     get at insider/confidential/classified information, rather mostly DDOS
     attacks.  However, there are people that have demonstrated such
     capabilities, and its possible they also joined an 'anonymous'
     campaign--like whoever got the recent personal data out of the Sony
     PSN. 

     On 10/24/11 1:11 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They
       are a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
       online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do
       this in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people
       joining Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement'
       or something like that. 

       Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

       On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
         these in the US?
          What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
         I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
         whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are
         significant because they were specifically mentioned as one of the
         targets in revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack
         of understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in
         Acapulco is expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with
         cartels out of coercion.

         Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
         cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head
         of el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using
         publication as a tool to force government action. If you reveal
         actionable intelligence, the government will use it against the
         cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.   Agreed,
         but I want to specify that Anonymous can not directly effect
         physical security. Any impact to the cartel in revealing information
         will be from actions of rival cartels or the GoM. They may release
         information on a given politician being linked to the cartels, but
         it's not a guarantee that the politician will feel an impact (Just
         because Anonymous says there is a link, doesn't make it true). It
         would be up to others to take action.  I think the way you have it
         worded in the above sentence is good.  Follow with a sentence
         explaining the rest of it, because readers will have the same
         question Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat to cartels
         would come in what information anonymous could expose that is useful
         to their enemies'

         Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
         activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to
         conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how
         much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
         vulnerability I have heard of cartels doing business online, but
         don't have specific examples which could be used in assessing their
         vulnerability online.

         by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
         arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
         should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
         politicians as colluding.
         On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

           Karen Hooper
           Latin America Analyst
           o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
           c: 512.750.7234
           STRATFOR
           www.stratfor.com
           On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
           Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
           possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
           Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using
           the banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information
           on cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could
           not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
           individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
           (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be
           an individual posting flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz
           as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
           speculation. [this is good and will be enough information to go
           with, though you'll need a quick explanation of what 'operation
           paperstorm' is.  Adding something in the explaining the flyers
           will work]

           Link: themeData
           Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for
           distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and
           corporate websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet
           with a statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including
           a video depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug
           cartels on October 10? With the most recent video release,
           Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
           Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
           police, politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
           cartels do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico?
           Are some of these in the US?
            What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The
           hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
           otherwise face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming
           November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could expect
           Anonymous' reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
           member are not met. The potential of conflict between Mexico's
           criminal cartels and hackers, presents a unique threat towards
           TCOs [If TCO= transnational criminal organization, it's not really
           unique.  Many such organizations do their crimes online, and have
           been hacked in response--like the nigerian princess scams. I think
           you should just say it's a unique threat to DTOs] . We know of
           cartels lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any
           reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers
           before. 

           What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
           threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold
           a gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said
           for the using publication as a tool to force government action. If
           you reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it
           against the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step
           removed.  
                o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
           media
                o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash
           out at cartels

           While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
           threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

                   -The threat is in the information they can expose that may
       be of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or
       other cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch,
       but i could imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of
       the public).

                o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
           identifiable information on cartel members 
                o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire
           on cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of
           this section/paragraph]
                o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
           communications, identifiable information on cartels members have
           to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                       Anonymous
                       o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
           illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels
           are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We
           don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
           operational vulnerability

          -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
       (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
       cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
       replaceable. 
                   -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents
       have access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any
       sort of existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their
       networks. 

           Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the
           ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite
           possible that some of its members in this campaign are in Mexico
           and opposed to the violence [or something like that.  my limited
           understanding is there are still activist crusader-types in
           Mexico, yeah?  it seems very possible those with a bit of time or
           computer skills could have joined up with anonymous] . As a
           result, their understanding of cartel activities may be limited.
           Anonymous members in other countries may act with confidence when
           sitting in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
           possible retribution. They may not even know the impact of any
           online assault of cartels.  [the part below and above is written
           rather normatively.  We need to take that out.  just state the
           facts]
                o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
           will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
           individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
           drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
           halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not
           have a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
           Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
           Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
           consequences from this. by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you
           mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens
           all the time.
                o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
           are willing to go protect their operations.
                   o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                   o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
           community before, coercing computer science majors into working
           for them.
                   o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
           discovering hackers within Mexico.
           need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply
           publishing tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in
           the same camp as the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear
           that their damage will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks
           can do--limited.  But maybe more a danger to themselves, since
           they are no longer challenging governments, but criminal
           organizations]

            

           On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

             Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
             there are several issues to address and fix here.

             These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
             discussion:

                  o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine
             but we can't gloss over that fact
                  o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
             between stealing bank records from government computers and
             overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                  o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
             information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
             kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
             talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
             politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
             going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
             killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
             operational details, because they acted as informants, because
             they exposed links with officials or because they somehow
             sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
             information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                  o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
             realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a
             measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity
             except for the technical ability by a very small number of its
             members to infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
             information. Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on
             a network that is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
             Where else could information be found? Government databases?
             Once we know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
             know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                  o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
             trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
             killings done by people who may not understand the difference
             between an anon hacker and a blogger.

             On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

               wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                   Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                   From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
               Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                     To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

               you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need
               a lot more work

               You need to lay out:

               a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
               section is unclear
               b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
               therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
               c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
               anything
               d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
               anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

               I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
               insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
               levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
               the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
               is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
               business online, in a protected fashion.

               Karen Hooper
               Latin America Analyst
               o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
               c: 512.750.7234
               STRATFOR
               www.stratfor.com
               On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

               On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Link: themeData

               Trigger

               Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
               lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
               denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
               released depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
               screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels.
               Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican? American?
               taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude
               with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
               release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
               The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels
               and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
               cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los
               Zetas leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
               little experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
               experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
               that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                

               In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
               mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
               their demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be
               mentioned right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
               threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so we
               understand who this guy is and why/how he was abducted. are
               not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
               information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
               will likely respond with violence against individuals revealed
               as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?.
               It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who
               collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving
               the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
               means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
               effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
               Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
               their threats against any individual using online media WC....
               you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers
               here. against the cartels.

                

               The Battle Space

               Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
               realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
               of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
               geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
               exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
               are physical people tho live in the real world. They have
               names and addresses - although most of them are likely outside
               of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their technical
               capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
               Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
               the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's
               population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
               what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
               Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
               revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run
               operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
               e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than
               the jihadists.)

               Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
               base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
               believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
               through the internet. This gives an opening for people
               disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
               dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience =
               troll. Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
               themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious IT
               capability. 

               The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
               been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

               The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US
               and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking
               to maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
               commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
               and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from
               insight. There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't
               have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
               amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels
               like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of
               threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel
               on cartel violence. While battling each other, cartels still
               face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
               avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
               have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
               bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok...
               but that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need
               to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't
               just assume they have no cyber presence.

                

               Anonymous' Weapons

               Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
               criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability
               to combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
               disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
               anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites
               in Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
               admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
               guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
               campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
               overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main
               stream media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
               to their operations, that they have continued to target
               journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
               Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
               the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
               denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
               here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

               As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
               risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to
               suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing information they
               threaten to release. By releasing identities of individuals
               cooperating with Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life
               of those individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
               sensitive information is limited by what is available via the
               Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
               should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
               However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
               governments computer networks, information available to
               Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire. 
               what are you trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                

               Cartel's Defense

                           A counter response to the video? by the cartels
               has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a
               kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun
               addressing the threat posed by hackers so... how has there not
               been a counter response? also this undermines your statements
               above about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
               underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How did
               they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very
               well give you some indication to the technical ability of the
               cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
               wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
               rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
               whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You
               can assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they are
               working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening
               cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
               information including locations is only available if a hacker
               chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy
               enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
               Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
               online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or
               start employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
               Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                           Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
               Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
               help of computer science majors through personal threats has
               been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported
               where?.  Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
               and drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of
               technical experts to help combat any threat by computer
               hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been
               demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of
               identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
               enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
               experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find
               hackers through investigations. A) How do you know they are
               not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm
               goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
               track down

                           In order to compete with an online foe, cartels
               will likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar
               with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
               operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they
               wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
               communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
               members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
               likely continue to be used to scare online media into
               submission i'm not really seeing the online
               media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
               manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
               hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life.
               Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of
               Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able to
               seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
               Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go on and
               shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 20:54:22",1,"2012-08-05 20:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/156506_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
156645,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   I agree. I haven't seen any defining attributes of Anonymous as a group.
   They may not even know the identities of each other. There are several
   facebook / twitter Anonymous pages, which seem to be run by different
   individuals.

   What about defining Anonymous in terms of the individual? Instead of
   saying Anonymous attacking cartels, Individuals acting under the Anonymous
   name....

   -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents have access to,
   and doubt they have such information that provides any sort of existential
   threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 
   This is a problem with the threat assessment. Technically, anything cartel
   related (emails, online transactions, Mexican LEA information, etc.) would
   be available to a hacker, but we don't know if they have had access to
   this information, or if the hackers interested in harming cartels are
   capable. It's not even confirmed hackers have revealing information on
   cartel supporters which the video claims.

   On 10/24/11 1:11 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They
     are a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
     online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do
     this in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people
     joining Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or
     something like that. 

     Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

     On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
       these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
       I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
       whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
       because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
       revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
       understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
       expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
       coercion.

       Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
       cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of
       el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication
       as a tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable
       intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels. That's a
       physical threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify
       that Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact
       to the cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival
       cartels or the GoM. They may release information on a given politician
       being linked to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the
       politician will feel an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a
       link, doesn't make it true). It would be up to others to take action. 
       I think the way you have it worded in the above sentence is good. 
       Follow with a sentence explaining the rest of it, because readers will
       have the same question Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat
       to cartels would come in what information anonymous could expose that
       is useful to their enemies'

       Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
       activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to
       conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how
       much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
       vulnerability I have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't
       have specific examples which could be used in assessing their
       vulnerability online.

       by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
       arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
       should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
       politicians as colluding.
       On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
         possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
         Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using
         the banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
         cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
         find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
         being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico
         and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
         posting flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the
         Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is
         good and will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a
         quick explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding
         something in the explaining the flyers will work]

         Link: themeData
         Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
         denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate
         websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
         statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
         depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
         October 10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold
         threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
         releasing identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they specify
         whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
          What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
         group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
         face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
         their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
         potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
         presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational
         criminal organization, it's not really unique.  Many such
         organizations do their crimes online, and have been hacked in
         response--like the nigerian princess scams. I think you should just
         say it's a unique threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out
         at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels
         dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
         threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a
         gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for
         the using publication as a tool to force government action. If you
         reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it against
         the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
         media
              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
         at cartels

         While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
         threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

                 -The threat is in the information they can expose that may
     be of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or
     other cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but
     i could imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the
     public).

              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
         identifiable information on cartel members 
              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
         cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
         section/paragraph]
              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
         identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
         the realm of possibilities for
                     Anonymous
                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
         illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels
         are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We
         don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
         operational vulnerability

        -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
     (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
     cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
     replaceable. 
                 -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents
     have access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any
     sort of existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

         Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
         world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that
         some of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to
         the violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is
         there are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems
         very possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have
         joined up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of
         cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other
         countries may act with confidence when sitting in front of a
         computer, but this may blind them to any possible retribution. They
         may not even know the impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the
         part below and above is written rather normatively.  We need to take
         that out.  just state the facts]
              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
         will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
         individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
         drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
         halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not have
         a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
         Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
         consequences from this. by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you
         mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens all
         the time.
              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
         are willing to go protect their operations.
                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                 o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
         community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
         them.
                 o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
         discovering hackers within Mexico.
         need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply
         publishing tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the
         same camp as the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that
         their damage will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can
         do--limited.  But maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are
         no longer challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

          

         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
           there are several issues to address and fix here.

           These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
           discussion:

                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
           we can't gloss over that fact
                o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
           between stealing bank records from government computers and
           overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
           information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
           kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
           politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
           going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
           killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
           operational details, because they acted as informants, because
           they exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied
           the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is
           damaging to the cartels themselves?
                o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
           realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure
           of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for
           the technical ability by a very small number of its members to
           infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information.
           Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that
           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
           information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
           of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
           consequences of dissemination.
                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
           back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings
           done by people who may not understand the difference between an
           anon hacker and a blogger.

           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                 From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
             Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                   To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

             you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
             lot more work

             You need to lay out:

             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
             is unclear
             b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
             therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
             d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
             who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

             I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
             insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
             levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
             the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
             is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
             business online, in a protected fashion.

             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
             c: 512.750.7234
             STRATFOR
             www.stratfor.com
             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             Link: themeData

             Trigger

             Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
             Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
             out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
             denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
             depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
             exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
             makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
             releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
             politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
             The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
             member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
             between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
             unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
             operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
             Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
             believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
             not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience
             with hackers.

              

             In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned
             as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
             demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned
             right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening
             to hit back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
             guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous'
             claims of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
             operations are true, cartels will likely respond with violence
             against individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you
             mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
             disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the
             GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
             don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
             Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
             against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
             continue their threats against any individual using online media
             WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about
             bloggers here. against the cartels.

              

             The Battle Space

             Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
             realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
             of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
             geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
             exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
             are physical people tho live in the real world. They have names
             and addresses - although most of them are likely outside of MX.)
              Anonymous' power base consists of their technical capabilities
             in hacking. Any information connected to the Internet is
             vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of
             individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population
             could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
             has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
             company with a website that brings in revenue, but it does not
             really matter if you don't run operations on the web. Los Z
             don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far less
             dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

             Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
             base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
             believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
             through the internet. This gives an opening for people
             disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
             dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
             Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
             themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious IT
             capability. 

             The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
             from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

             The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
             Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
             maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
             commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
             and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight.
             There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
             capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
             and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
             experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
             always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
             While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
             Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
             the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media
             outlets. Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to
             cover details of their operations. ok... but that's kind of a
             red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus on the
             possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
             have no cyber presence.

              

             Anonymous' Weapons

             Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
             criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
             combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
             disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
             anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites in
             Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
             admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
             guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
             campaign by technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
             should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream media
             outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
             operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
             bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed
             with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a
             blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce cartels
             on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
             really addressing the subheading

             As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
             risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
             Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
             release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
             Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
             individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
             information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
             Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
             considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
             compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
             networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence
             collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to
             say here? This isn't clear at all

              

             Cartel's Defense

                         A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
             yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
             member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
             threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
             response? also this undermines your statements above about how
             Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
             vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
             Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you
             some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
             Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
             cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed
             for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
             dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and
             we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
             disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can
             operate in any region of the world. Personal information
             including locations is only available if a hacker chooses to
             divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
             figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels
             are only capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can
             physically reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of
             their own under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
             Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                         Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
             Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
             help of computer science majors through personal threats has
             been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
             Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
             trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
             experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
             identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
             is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
             operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such
             as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources
             than cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations.
             A) How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
             kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are
             equally difficult to track down

                         In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
             likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with,
             brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
             operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they
             wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
             communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
             members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
             likely continue to be used to scare online media into submission
             i'm not really seeing the online media-international hacking
             group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
             inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
             encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel
             violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to be
             seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
             the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff
             and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
             inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 20:50:49",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/156645_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","tristan.reed@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
156693,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   yes, marc called them a mob - and that seems accurate

   On 10/24/11 1:33 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     Good point. 
     In terrorist terms they are more like grassroots people than AQ core. 
     From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
     Reply-To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:11:05 -0500
     To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
     Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They
     are a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
     online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do
     this in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people
     joining Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or
     something like that. 

     Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

     On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
       these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
       I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
       whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
       because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
       revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
       understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
       expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
       coercion.

       Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
       cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of
       el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication
       as a tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable
       intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels. That's a
       physical threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify
       that Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact
       to the cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival
       cartels or the GoM. They may release information on a given politician
       being linked to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the
       politician will feel an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a
       link, doesn't make it true). It would be up to others to take action. 
       I think the way you have it worded in the above sentence is good. 
       Follow with a sentence explaining the rest of it, because readers will
       have the same question Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat
       to cartels would come in what information anonymous could expose that
       is useful to their enemies'

       Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
       activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to
       conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how
       much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
       vulnerability I have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't
       have specific examples which could be used in assessing their
       vulnerability online.

       by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
       arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
       should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
       politicians as colluding.
       On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
         possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
         Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using
         the banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
         cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
         find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
         being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico
         and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
         posting flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the
         Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is
         good and will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a
         quick explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding
         something in the explaining the flyers will work]

         Link: themeData
         Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
         denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate
         websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
         statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
         depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
         October 10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold
         threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
         releasing identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they specify
         whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
          What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
         group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
         face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
         their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
         potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
         presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational
         criminal organization, it's not really unique.  Many such
         organizations do their crimes online, and have been hacked in
         response--like the nigerian princess scams. I think you should just
         say it's a unique threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out
         at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels
         dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
         threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a
         gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for
         the using publication as a tool to force government action. If you
         reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it against
         the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
         media
              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
         at cartels

         While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
         threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

                 -The threat is in the information they can expose that may
     be of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or
     other cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but
     i could imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the
     public).

              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
         identifiable information on cartel members 
              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
         cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
         section/paragraph]
              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
         identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
         the realm of possibilities for
                     Anonymous
                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
         illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels
         are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We
         don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
         operational vulnerability

        -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
     (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
     cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
     replaceable. 
                 -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents
     have access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any
     sort of existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

         Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
         world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that
         some of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to
         the violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is
         there are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems
         very possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have
         joined up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of
         cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other
         countries may act with confidence when sitting in front of a
         computer, but this may blind them to any possible retribution. They
         may not even know the impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the
         part below and above is written rather normatively.  We need to take
         that out.  just state the facts]
              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
         will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
         individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
         drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
         halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not have
         a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
         Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
         consequences from this. by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you
         mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens all
         the time.
              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
         are willing to go protect their operations.
                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                 o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
         community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
         them.
                 o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
         discovering hackers within Mexico.
         need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply
         publishing tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the
         same camp as the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that
         their damage will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can
         do--limited.  But maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are
         no longer challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

          

         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
           there are several issues to address and fix here.

           These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
           discussion:

                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
           we can't gloss over that fact
                o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
           between stealing bank records from government computers and
           overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
           information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
           kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
           politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
           going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
           killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
           operational details, because they acted as informants, because
           they exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied
           the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is
           damaging to the cartels themselves?
                o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
           realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure
           of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for
           the technical ability by a very small number of its members to
           infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information.
           Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that
           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
           information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
           of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
           consequences of dissemination.
                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
           back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings
           done by people who may not understand the difference between an
           anon hacker and a blogger.

           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                 From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
             Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                   To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

             you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
             lot more work

             You need to lay out:

             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
             is unclear
             b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
             therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
             d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
             who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

             I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
             insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
             levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
             the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
             is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
             business online, in a protected fashion.

             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
             c: 512.750.7234
             STRATFOR
             www.stratfor.com
             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             Link: themeData

             Trigger

             Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
             Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
             out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
             denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
             depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
             exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
             makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
             releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
             politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
             The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
             member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
             between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
             unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
             operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
             Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
             believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
             not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience
             with hackers.

              

             In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned
             as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
             demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned
             right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening
             to hit back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
             guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous'
             claims of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
             operations are true, cartels will likely respond with violence
             against individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you
             mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
             disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the
             GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
             don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
             Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
             against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
             continue their threats against any individual using online media
             WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about
             bloggers here. against the cartels.

              

             The Battle Space

             Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
             realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
             of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
             geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
             exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
             are physical people tho live in the real world. They have names
             and addresses - although most of them are likely outside of MX.)
              Anonymous' power base consists of their technical capabilities
             in hacking. Any information connected to the Internet is
             vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of
             individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population
             could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
             has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
             company with a website that brings in revenue, but it does not
             really matter if you don't run operations on the web. Los Z
             don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far less
             dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

             Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
             base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
             believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
             through the internet. This gives an opening for people
             disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
             dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
             Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
             themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious IT
             capability. 

             The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
             from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

             The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
             Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
             maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
             commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
             and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight.
             There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
             capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
             and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
             experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
             always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
             While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
             Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
             the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media
             outlets. Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to
             cover details of their operations. ok... but that's kind of a
             red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus on the
             possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
             have no cyber presence.

              

             Anonymous' Weapons

             Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
             criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
             combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
             disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
             anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites in
             Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
             admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
             guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
             campaign by technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
             should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream media
             outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
             operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
             bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed
             with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a
             blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce cartels
             on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
             really addressing the subheading

             As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
             risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
             Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
             release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
             Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
             individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
             information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
             Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
             considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
             compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
             networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence
             collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to
             say here? This isn't clear at all

              

             Cartel's Defense

                         A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
             yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
             member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
             threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
             response? also this undermines your statements above about how
             Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
             vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
             Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you
             some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
             Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
             cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed
             for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
             dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and
             we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
             disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can
             operate in any region of the world. Personal information
             including locations is only available if a hacker chooses to
             divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
             figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels
             are only capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can
             physically reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of
             their own under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
             Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                         Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
             Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
             help of computer science majors through personal threats has
             been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
             Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
             trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
             experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
             identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
             is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
             operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such
             as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources
             than cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations.
             A) How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
             kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are
             equally difficult to track down

                         In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
             likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with,
             brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
             operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they
             wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
             communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
             members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
             likely continue to be used to scare online media into submission
             i'm not really seeing the online media-international hacking
             group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
             inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
             encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel
             violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to be
             seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
             the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff
             and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
             inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 20:39:58",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/156693_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
156792,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   if anonymous outs taxi cab drivers working with Zeta, they are dead.  that
   is both simple and devastating.  If they release email accounts of GOM
   folks, and there are cartel members in that address book that would be
   devastating.  I think our definitions of devastating are different.  I
   agree the ability of these folks to bring down governments is minimal, but
   I am willing to bet the next deep throat scenario will come via a hacker
   and information they are able to steal. 

   On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  The question is if the attack is high
     priority enough.  Many people assume there is no attribution because
     there is no response, but I don't think that is accurate. 
     has NSA told you otherwise?  i am unclear, are you saying the entire
     darknet is mapped, or could be mapped, only it isn't because the NSA
     doesn't care or doens't share? 
     3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new laptop and
     start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack involves much more than
     a recently bought laptop.  In the same way there is an attack cycle for
     a terrorist attack or crime, there is one for a cyber attack.  A very
     simple attack may be as hard to trace as a nearly-random mugging in the
     dark in a neighborhood with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.
     so simple=low damage, and complicated = more damage?  if you hacked
     Calderon's blackberry and found out who his contacts were, and one of
     them was Chapo's sister, it would be simple and devastating.  A more
     complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational surveillance,
     developing exploits, developing programs and code, gaining access,
     exploiting that, and carrying out an attack.  And that takes time,
     giving more time for your exposure. Look at everything that went into
     Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person with a
     new laptop.  All of this activity provides activity and evidence which
     helps for attribution.  Of course it is always possible to develop an
     attack, just like any other operation, that even the best law
     enforcement and national intelligence agencies have trouble or cannot
     attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that it's very difficult for
     someone to successfully use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID,
     Aman, etc, be unable to attribute it.  They may not choose to cover it
     if it is small scale crime, however. 
     On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored cyber
       warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing that, since
       you can conduct a cyber attack without associating with a hacker group
       and still deny / cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual
       attacking US computer assets from China, may be working by himself or
       on behalf of the Chinese government, but unless the US has other intel
       on the Chinese government's cyber warfare activities in order to
       corroborate there is little capability to distinguish.

       It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
       operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from
       SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual responsible for
       hacking State run servers. In the past, I have turned to SIGINT
       organizations for collections on computer related material, but this
       was due to the US being behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where
       to assign responsibility. However, this has changed dramatically in
       the last couple of years.

       Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an
       extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a
       Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the online
       activity to something revealing (accessing personal email accounts,
       tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop, etc..), and
       begin hacking government email accounts then never use the laptop
       again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of my appearance
       from Starbuck's patrons or possible security cameras, I can not think
       of way to identify me.

       Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to these
       enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to specific
       computer-related activities because of the difficulty in identifying
       individuals.

       I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be blown, would
       be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common
       participant in \"Anonymous\" activities, was working for a State?
       Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that State agent
       organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs
       could a LEA look for to distinguish?

       On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a bit)

         1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything actually
         harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but i'm very
         doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real case where
         they could do some minor damage--to individual people, not not to an
         organization or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
         threat. 

         2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually
         pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover, but
         that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could probably still be
         attributed if important enough to those agencies.  The recent attack
         on Sony actually brings this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves
         anonymous denies they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have
         claimed an publicized attacks in the past, even before they were
         carried out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
         sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
         coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted Sony's IT
         security).  But whoever did it, again, no real damage came of it. 
         Congress is holding hearings over data security, but this is no
         different than the OC groups stealing your credit card information. 
         LE will go after them, have some success, but the threat is not that
         large. 
         On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

           Link: themeData

           I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
           broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
           almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
           Reviewing their list of attacks
           (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of
           the cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the
           internet . The interesting thing when it comes to their
           interactions with the cartels is the dubious role they play: at
           the same time they can be fighting crime by revealing cartel
           members/supporters, but they can also put lives in risk.

           However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
           Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can
           conduct a cyber attack under \"Anonymous\" is worrisome.
           (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

           If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
           websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know
           more about these guys. Who they are? What are they interested in?
           How they operate? Who they have targeted so far? How can I defend
           myself from them? In what countries are they active? Should I
           worry about them at all? Can I use them to achieve any particular
           goal?

           On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else
             can build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they
             pose to innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico. 
             By focusing on journalists or taxi drivers they show little
             understanding of the situation.  This has long term implications
             in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
             their actions and they act without understanding the
             environment.  It was the same when they released information on
             the Sony Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt
             innocent people to prove a point. 

             On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
               possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
               Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by
               Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on cartels
               as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
               find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
               individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
               (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it
               may be an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
               Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

               Link: themeData
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
               distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government
               websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
               statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a
               video depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug
               cartels on October 10? With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
               Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
               police, politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
               cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow
               kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In the
               Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
               day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands
               of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
               conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
               presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
               lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any
               reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers
               before. 

               What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                    o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
               threat to Mexican cartels.
                    o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit
               online media
                    o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to
               lash out at cartels

               While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose
               a threat
                    o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
               identifiable information on cartel members
                    o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could
               acquire on cartels
                    o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
               communications, identifiable information on cartels members
               have to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                           Anonymous
                           o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to
               reveal illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

               Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
               ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
               result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
               limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting in
               front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
               retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online
               assault of cartels.
                    o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
               journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some
               of these individuals are forced to collude with cartels.    
                         Taxi drivers are often victims of extortion or
               coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
               individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel    
                             operations. Politicans have been accused of
               working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor) before,
               however there has yet to be any consequences from this.
                    o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent
               cartels are willing to go protect their operations.
                       o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                       o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
               community before, coercing computer science majors into
               working for them.
                       o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
               discovering hackers within Mexico.

                

               On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                 Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea
                 but there are several issues to address and fix here.

                 These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
                 discussion:

                      o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's
                 fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                      o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a
                 difference between stealing bank records from government
                 computers and overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                      o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
                 information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of
                 info is kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You
                 seem to be talking about identities, whose? If anything it's
                 dirty cops, politicians and businessmen who need to worry
                 about what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                 bloggers and media were killed in previous instances. Was it
                 because they revealed operational details, because they
                 acted as informants, because they exposed links with
                 officials or because they somehow sullied the cartel's
                 reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
                 to the cartels themselves?
                      o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon
                 can realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes
                 a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence
                 capacity except for the technical ability by a very small
                 number of its members to infiltrate certain networks and
                 databases and steal information. Now what kind of
                 information would a cartel keep on a network that is
                 connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else
                 could information be found? Government databases? Once we
                 know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
                 know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                      o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
                 trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
                 killings done by people who may not understand the
                 difference between an anon hacker and a blogger.

                 On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                   -------- Original Message --------

                    Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                       Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                       From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
                   Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                         To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

                   you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to
                   need a lot more work

                   You need to lay out:

                   a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
                   section is unclear
                   b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is,
                   and therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
                   c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
                   anything
                   d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
                   anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their
                   connections

                   I also just want to point out that we have reasonable
                   reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some
                   significant levels of sophistication in their online
                   presence, to include the use of cyber currencies and
                   significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume that
                   Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
                   protected fashion.

                   Karen Hooper
                   Latin America Analyst
                   o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                   c: 512.750.7234
                   STRATFOR
                   www.stratfor.com
                   On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                   On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                   Link: themeData

                   Trigger

                   Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
                   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
                   lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
                   statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including
                   a video released depicting...? a person talking? a voice?
                   words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent
                   video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                   criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
                   Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                   journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
                   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
                   otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
                   between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                   unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                   different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a
                   conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
                   experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
                   experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
                   that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                    

                   In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                   reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member
                   this should be mentioned right up front. Cartels have a
                   member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
                   enough details so we understand who this guy is and
                   why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims
                   of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
                   operations are true, cartels will likely respond with
                   violence against individuals revealed as opposing cartel
                   members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is
                   likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude
                   with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
                   Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
                   means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                   effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
                   Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
                   continue their threats against any individual using online
                   media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking
                   about bloggers here. against the cartels.

                    

                   The Battle Space

                   Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                   separate realities from each other. Anonymous operates
                   solely in sphere of the computer networks. Anonymous does
                   not experience geographical boundaries. All personalities
                   within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
                   not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in
                   the real world. They have names and addresses - although
                   most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                   base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking.
                   Any information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to
                   exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual
                   cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
                   be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
                   has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or
                   a big company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                   it does not really matter if you don't run operations on
                   the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They
                   are also far less dependent on the web than the
                   jihadists.)

                   Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's
                   power base consists of the perceived anonymity that its
                   members believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by
                   operating through the internet. This gives an opening for
                   people disgruntled by anything and everything to practice
                   general dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity +
                   audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
                   people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any
                   sort of serious IT capability. 

                   The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
                   been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

                   The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in
                   US and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always
                   looking to maximize profits and expand. But they are
                   bricks and mortar commerce. Yes..... but they use the
                   internet to launder money and issue commands. We know that
                   Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to
                   assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity. 
                   Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                   escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
                   experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels
                   are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
                   violence. While battling each other, cartels still face
                   arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
                   avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money,
                   cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists
                   and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
                   operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
                   discussion. You need to focus on the possible
                   vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
                   have no cyber presence.

                    

                   Anonymous' Weapons

                   Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions
                   against criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous'
                   only ability to combat cartels lay in information
                   operations, mainly disseminating sensitive information on
                   cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via social
                   media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and
                   that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                   cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of
                   a targeted information operations campaign by technically
                   elite individuals can not be overlooked should not be
                   underestimated. Cartels view main stream media outlets and
                   social media blogs as such a threat to their operations,
                   that they have continued to target journalists and
                   bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was
                   placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
                   body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
                   denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
                   here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

                   As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                   internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample
                   reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing
                   information they threaten to release. By releasing
                   identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
                   cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
                   individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
                   information is limited by what is available via the
                   Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
                   should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
                   However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                   governments computer networks, information available to
                   Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to
                   acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
                   clear at all

                    

                   Cartel's Defense

                               A counter response to the video? by the
                   cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                   claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los
                   Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by hackers
                   so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
                   undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is
                   soley internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities
                   of associated members. How did they find teh Anonymous
                   member? The answer to that could very well give you some
                   indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
                   Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web
                   , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
                   rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG
                   has whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in
                   cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
                   indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
                   cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any
                   region of the world. Personal information including
                   locations is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge
                   it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                   figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous.
                   Cartels are only capable of dealing with their online
                   enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
                   employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
                   Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                               Cartels have been known to coerce the services
                   of Mexican citizens with a technical background.
                   Recruiting the help of computer science majors through
                   personal threats has been reported in the past where? What
                   cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
                   world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will
                   likely need the assistance of technical experts to help
                   combat any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                   bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
                   unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
                   operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
                   such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and
                   resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers through
                   investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
                   (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume
                   that not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                               In order to compete with an online foe,
                   cartels will likely continue counter tactics they are most
                   familiar with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of
                   their HUMINT operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would
                   we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged
                   connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
                   and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
                   public display of violence will likely continue to be used
                   to scare online media into submission i'm not really
                   seeing the online media-international hacking group
                   connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                   inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
                   encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
                   cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will
                   remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
                   capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could
                   call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off
                   any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 22:29:35",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/156792_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
156805,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
   the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
   only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
   responsible.

   2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
   responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
   intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
   just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
   indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
   department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

   Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

   Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short, SIGINT
   is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication devices,
   and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining computer
   network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while SIGINT may be
   used with other intelligence disciplines in order to identify a hacker, it
   is not necessary and is no more related than any other intel discipline.
   SIGINT could help you identify a computer devices (not the operator)
   emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis, which is also separate from
   SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could help in providing methods to
   decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT wouldn't obtain those
   messages.

   In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
   are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and technologies
   tailored specifically for computer activity.

   NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of technological
   demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous resources in R&D, so
   I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA. But their SIGINT
   capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

   Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor for
   the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing operations on
   the scale of causing physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment .
   Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas
   Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most prolific example of
   a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted mainly outside of the
   cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of this doesn't matter?
   Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks have physically damaged
   secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think you are downplaying too
   much the significance of exposing corporate secrets, halting businesses'
   revenues, and embarrassing State actors by defacing their websites.

   On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
         arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say foreign
         intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected? No, of
         course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so good to
         be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers.  I'm saying
         they are more detectable than you think.  There is no such thing as
         truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will that trail in
         every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but it can lead to
         a place, an organization, and often, an individual. 

         2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
         responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
         cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case
         HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
         capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers.
         NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers but it does
         not make it SIGINT.

         Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

         The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many people
         assume there is no attribution because there is no response, but I
         don't think that is accurate.  Many people say this, because no
         attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes, they do, and if
         they think that is the primary reason for lack of response, then I
         think they are wrong. 

         3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new laptop
         and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack involves much
         more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way there is an
         attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is one for a
         cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to trace as a
         nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood with much more
         serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more complicated attack,
         however, involves pre-operational surveillance, developing exploits,
         developing programs and code, gaining access, exploiting that, and
         carrying out an attack.  Discovering exploits and writing code can
         be done entirely offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel
         agencies. Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point
         of the exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point
         is, if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
         remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
         IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
         cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
         more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
         linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
         Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
         to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
         things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time for
         your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the target,
         a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur without
         network activity. Look at everything that went into Stuxnet as a
         great example, that couldn't be done with one person with a new
         laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of
         necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
         discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage to
         extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber
         attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  
         All of this activity provides activity and evidence which helps for
         attribution.  Of course it is always possible to develop an attack,
         just like any other operation, that even the best law enforcement
         and national intelligence agencies have trouble or cannot
         attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that it's very difficult for
         someone to successfully use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ,
         MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute it.  How do you know if NSA
         or GHQ is effective in identifying hackers?I don't, but I'm
         confident they are far better than you are allowing for.    They may
         not choose to cover it if it is small scale crime, however. 
         On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
           cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
           that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
           with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
           the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from China,
           may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese government,
           but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese government's
           cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate there is little
           capability to distinguish.

           It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
           operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from
           SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual responsible
           for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have turned to
           SIGINT organizations for collections on computer related material,
           but this was due to the US being behind in cyber warfare, and not
           knowing where to assign responsibility. However, this has changed
           dramatically in the last couple of years.

           Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an
           extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a
           Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the online
           activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
           accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
           etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never use
           the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of
           my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible security
           cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

           Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
           these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to
           specific computer-related activities because of the difficulty in
           identifying individuals.

           I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be blown,
           would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common
           participant in \"Anonymous\" activities, was working for a State?
           Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that State
           agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what
           signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

           On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
             bit)

             1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
             actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but
             i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real
             case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
             people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
             as a serious or strategic threat. 

             2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually
             pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover,
             but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could probably
             still be attributed if important enough to those agencies.  The
             recent attack on Sony actually brings this issue up- Whoever is
             calling themselves anonymous denies they did it.  And keep in
             mind how much they have claimed an publicized attacks in the
             past, even before they were carried out.  The attack on the
             Playstation Network was more sophisticated than anonymous' usual
             work (though potentially coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS
             attacks that distracted Sony's IT security).  But whoever did
             it, again, no real damage came of it.  Congress is holding
             hearings over data security, but this is no different than the
             OC groups stealing your credit card information.  LE will go
             after them, have some success, but the threat is not that
             large. 
             On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

               Link: themeData

               I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
               have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
               nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
               threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
               (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most
               of the cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a Robin Hood
               of the internet . The interesting thing when it comes to their
               interactions with the cartels is the dubious role they play:
               at the same time they can be fighting crime by revealing
               cartel members/supporters, but they can also put lives in
               risk.

               However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
               Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can
               conduct a cyber attack under \"Anonymous\" is worrisome.
               (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

               If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
               websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
               know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
               interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
               far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries are
               they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use them
               to achieve any particular goal?

               On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                 nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything
                 else can build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the
                 threat they pose to innocent people caught up in the terror
                 that is Mexico.  By focusing on journalists or taxi drivers
                 they show little understanding of the situation.  This has
                 long term implications in not just Mexico.  They don't
                 consider the consequences of their actions and they act
                 without understanding the environment.  It was the same when
                 they released information on the Sony Playstation network to
                 protest Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                 On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                   Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                   discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on what
                   type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video
                   released by Anonymous, threatens revealing personal
                   information on cartels as well as states a member had been
                   kidnapped. I could not find any sources outside of
                   Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped.
                   According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
                   Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
                   posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
                   Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

                   Link: themeData
                   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                   distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government
                   websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with
                   a statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels,
                   including a video depicting a masked individual addressing
                   Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent
                   video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                   criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
                   identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                   journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
                   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
                   otherwise face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this
                   coming November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could
                   expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of releasing a
                   kidnapped member are not met. The potential of conflict
                   between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a
                   unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out
                   at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on
                   cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

                   What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                        o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                   security threat to Mexican cartels.
                        o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit
                   online media
                        o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico
                   to lash out at cartels

                   While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                   pose a threat
                        o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
                   identifiable information on cartel members
                        o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could
                   acquire on cartels
                        o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                   communications, identifiable information on cartels
                   members have to be considered in the realm of
                   possibilities for
                               Anonymous
                               o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability
                   to reveal illicit online activity (child pornography
                   rings)

                   Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                   ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                   result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                   limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting in
                   front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                   possible retribution. They may not even know the impact of
                   any online assault of cartels.
                        o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                   journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand
                   some of these individuals are forced to collude with
                   cartels.               Taxi drivers are often victims of
                   extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
                   identity of these individuals will not have a significant
                   impact on cartel                   operations. Politicans
                   have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
                   Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be
                   any consequences from this.
                        o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent
                   cartels are willing to go protect their operations.
                           o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                           o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                   science community before, coercing computer science majors
                   into working for them.
                           o    This provides the cartels with the
                   possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                    

                   On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                     Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                     idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                     here.

                     These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with
                     the discussion:

                          o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                     that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                          o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a
                     difference between stealing bank records from government
                     computers and overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                          o     There's no thought out process of what sort
                     of information could anon have on the cartels. What kind
                     of info is kept online and accessible to potential
                     attacks? You seem to be talking about identities, whose?
                     If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and businessmen
                     who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
                     Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in
                     previous instances. Was it because they revealed
                     operational details, because they acted as informants,
                     because they exposed links with officials or because
                     they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short,
                     what kind of information is damaging to the cartels
                     themselves?
                          o     Once you identify this info - think about if
                     anon can realistically access it and disseminate it so
                     it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any
                     intelligence capacity except for the technical ability
                     by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
                     certain networks and databases and steal information.
                     Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a
                     network that is connected to the internet (aka no
                     intranet)? Where else could information be found?
                     Government databases? Once we know what kind of
                     information is accessible, we can also know more about
                     the consequences of dissemination.
                          o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                     Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                     risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may not
                     understand the difference between an anon hacker and a
                     blogger.

                     On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                       wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                       -------- Original Message --------

                        Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                           Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                           From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
                       Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                             To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

                       you've got some of the issues here, but this is going
                       to need a lot more work

                       You need to lay out:

                       a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                       trigger section is unclear
                       b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                       is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                       capabilities
                       c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
                       anything
                       d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                       kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                       their connections

                       I also just want to point out that we have reasonable
                       reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very least has
                       some significant levels of sophistication in their
                       online presence, to include the use of cyber
                       currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no
                       reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
                       business online, in a protected fashion.

                       Karen Hooper
                       Latin America Analyst
                       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                       c: 512.750.7234
                       STRATFOR
                       www.stratfor.com
                       On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                       On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                       Link: themeData

                       Trigger

                       Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy,
                       hackers. Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group
                       famous for...?, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                       Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
                       criminal cartels, including a video released
                       depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
                       screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video
                       release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                       criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities
                       of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
                       politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
                       cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a
                       fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
                       The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal
                       cartels and hackers, presents an unprecedented war
                       front for the cartels. The vastly different operations
                       of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
                       Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in
                       handling. i believe that Anonymous has no experience
                       with the cartels. I do not believe for a second that
                       the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                        

                       In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                       mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                       reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
                       member this should be mentioned right up front.
                       Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit
                       back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
                       guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If
                       Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing information
                       on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
                       will likely respond with violence against individuals
                       revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean
                       Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
                       disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will
                       force the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous
                       threat complexity i don't understand what this means.
                       You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                       effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
                       against Anonymous remains unanswered . However,
                       cartels will continue their threats against any
                       individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
                       or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here.
                       against the cartels.

                        

                       The Battle Space

                       Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                       separate realities from each other. Anonymous operates
                       solely in sphere of the computer networks. Anonymous
                       does not experience geographical boundaries. All
                       personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber
                       space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical
                       people tho live in the real world. They have names and
                       addresses - although most of them are likely outside
                       of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their
                       technical capabilities in hacking. Any information
                       connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by
                       hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel
                       members in the midst of Mexico's population could be
                       quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
                       has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
                       Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings
                       in revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't
                       run operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money
                       via e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on
                       the web than the jihadists.)

                       Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's
                       power base consists of the perceived anonymity that
                       its members believe themselves to have, real or
                       otherwise, by operating through the internet. This
                       gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
                       and everything to practice general dickery. As the
                       popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only
                       a fraction of the large web of people who identify
                       themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious IT
                       capability. 

                       The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far
                       has been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement
                       Agencies.

                       The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets
                       in US and Mexican cities. They are run as a business,
                       always looking to maximize profits and expand. But
                       they are bricks and mortar commerce. Yes..... but they
                       use the internet to launder money and issue commands.
                       We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There is
                       no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a
                       similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
                       amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence.
                       Cartels like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing
                       different types of threats. Cartels are always
                       suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
                       While battling each other, cartels still face arrests
                       by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid
                       any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
                       have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and
                       online bloggers in order to cover details of their
                       operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for
                       this discussion. You need to focus on the possible
                       vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
                       have no cyber presence.

                        

                       Anonymous' Weapons

                       Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions
                       against criminal cartels has yet to be seen.
                       Anonymous' only ability to combat cartels lay in
                       information operations, mainly disseminating sensitive
                       information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
                       statements via social media and defaced websites in
                       Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As
                       Anonymous admitted in their video to cartels, they
                       cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a
                       targeted information operations campaign by
                       technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
                       should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream
                       media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
                       to their operations, that they have continued to
                       target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message
                       signed by Los Zetas was placed with a dead female
                       body  more relevantly, on the body of a blogger. The
                       message threatened any users who denounce cartels on
                       blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's
                       not really addressing the subheading

                       As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                       internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample
                       reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing
                       information they threaten to release. By releasing
                       identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
                       cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
                       individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
                       sensitive information is limited by what is available
                       via the Internet. Government computers connected to
                       the Internet should always be considered a possibility
                       of an attack. However, as with the compartmentalized
                       nature of the US governments computer networks,
                       information available to Mexico's intelligence
                       collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you
                       trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                        

                       Cartel's Defense

                                   A counter response to the video? by the
                       cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                       claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los
                       Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
                       hackers so... how has there not been a counter
                       response? also this undermines your statements above
                       about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
                       underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members.
                       How did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to
                       that could very well give you some indication to the
                       technical ability of the cartels . As Anonymous exists
                       in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
                       cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely
                       are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
                       whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in
                       cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
                       indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
                       cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in
                       any region of the world. Personal information
                       including locations is only available if a hacker
                       chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack
                       is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
                       work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of
                       dealing with their online enemy, if they can
                       physically reach out to them. Or start employing
                       hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger
                       things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                                   Cartels have been known to coerce the
                       services of Mexican citizens with a technical
                       background. Recruiting the help of computer science
                       majors through personal threats has been reported in
                       the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since
                       cartels operate in the world of urban violence and
                       drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance
                       of technical experts to help combat any threat by
                       computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside
                       of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is unlikely
                       cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
                       operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement
                       agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
                       experience and resources than cartels, struggle to
                       find hackers through investigations. A) How do you
                       know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
                       kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all
                       hackers are equally difficult to track down

                                   In order to compete with an online foe,
                       cartels will likely continue counter tactics they are
                       most familiar with, brute force. Cartels are still
                       capable of their HUMINT operations within Mexico
                       \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?. 
                       Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
                       communities will likely be targeted and interrogated
                       by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
                       of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
                       online media into submission i'm not really seeing the
                       online media-international hacking group connection
                       here.  The cruel manners in which cartels inflict
                       harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
                       encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
                       cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous
                       will remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek
                       out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
                       Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go
                       on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
                       inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

             --

             Sean Noonan

             Tactical Analyst

             Office: +1 512-279-9479

             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

             www.stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-25 02:33:59",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/156805_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","tristan.reed@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
157019,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   Sean, just to be clear

   Your point is that Anonymous hasn't mattered?  Is your argument that
   hackers haven't mattered either?  because if Anonymous is a mob of hackers
   as you argue, how haven't they mattered to their targets?  what about all
   the money spent fighting them?  and as Tristan just pointed out - how
   about HBGary Federal?  He said the CEO's SSN and address were posted on
   Twitter.  What about all the sensitive emails that were lost?  We have no
   way of knowing what was in those emails, or how they are being used to
   make money at the expense of HBGary.  I have always agreed that they
   haven't reached a level of threat to the US, but that surely doesn't mean
   they won't.  And there are quite a few countries, organizations, and
   people below that rather high standard who could not withstand an attack,
   including an email purge of personal emails onto the web. 

   On 10/24/11 7:33 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
     the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
     only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
     responsible.

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
     responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
     intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
     just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
     indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
     department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

     Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

     Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
     SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication
     devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining
     computer network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while
     SIGINT may be used with other intelligence disciplines in order to
     identify a hacker, it is not necessary and is no more related than any
     other intel discipline. SIGINT could help you identify a computer
     devices (not the operator) emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis,
     which is also separate from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could
     help in providing methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT
     wouldn't obtain those messages.

     In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
     are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and
     technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

     NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
     technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
     resources in R&D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA.
     But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

     Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
     for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing
     operations on the scale of causing physical damage to extremely
     sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that
     matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most
     prolific example of a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted
     mainly outside of the cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of
     this doesn't matter? Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks
     have physically damaged secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think
     you are downplaying too much the significance of exposing corporate
     secrets, halting businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by
     defacing their websites.

     On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
           arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
           foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected?
           No, of course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so
           good to be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers. 
           I'm saying they are more detectable than you think.  There is no
           such thing as truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will
           that trail in every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but
           it can lead to a place, an organization, and often, an
           individual. 

           2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
           responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
           cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this
           case HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
           capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking
           hackers. NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers
           but it does not make it SIGINT.

           Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

           The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
           people assume there is no attribution because there is no
           response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
           this, because no attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes,
           they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for lack of
           response, then I think they are wrong. 

           3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
           laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
           involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way
           there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is
           one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to
           trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood
           with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more
           complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational
           surveillance, developing exploits, developing programs and code,
           gaining access, exploiting that, and carrying out an attack. 
           Discovering exploits and writing code can be done entirely
           offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel agencies.
           Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point of the
           exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point is,
           if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
           remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
           IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
           cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
           more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
           linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
           Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
           to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
           things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time
           for your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the
           target, a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur
           without network activity. Look at everything that went into
           Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person
           with a new laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small
           part of necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't
           think we are discussing operations on the scale of causing
           physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is
           an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so
           far has not mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
           evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
           possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation, that
           even the best law enforcement and national intelligence agencies
           have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that
           it's very difficult for someone to successfully use Anonymous as a
           cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute
           it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is effective in identifying
           hackers?I don't, but I'm confident they are far better than you
           are allowing for.    They may not choose to cover it if it is
           small scale crime, however. 
           On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
             cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
             that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
             with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
             the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from
             China, may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese
             government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
             government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate
             there is little capability to distinguish.

             It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
             operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets
             from SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual
             responsible for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have
             turned to SIGINT organizations for collections on computer
             related material, but this was due to the US being behind in
             cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
             However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of
             years.

             Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As
             an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go
             to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the
             online activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
             accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
             etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never
             use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
             description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible
             security cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

             Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
             these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied
             to specific computer-related activities because of the
             difficulty in identifying individuals.

             I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be blown,
             would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a
             common participant in \"Anonymous\" activities, was working for a
             State? Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that
             State agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter
             buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

             On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
               bit)

               1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
               actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't,
               but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first
               real case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
               people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
               as a serious or strategic threat. 

               2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
               actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as
               a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could
               probably still be attributed if important enough to those
               agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings this
               issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies they
               did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an
               publicized attacks in the past, even before they were carried
               out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
               sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
               coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted
               Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
               damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data
               security, but this is no different than the OC groups stealing
               your credit card information.  LE will go after them, have
               some success, but the threat is not that large. 
               On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                 Link: themeData

                 I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
                 have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
                 nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
                 threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
                 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                 most of the cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a Robin
                 Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when it comes
                 to their interactions with the cartels is the dubious role
                 they play: at the same time they can be fighting crime by
                 revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can also put
                 lives in risk.

                 However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
                 Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth,
                 can conduct a cyber attack under \"Anonymous\" is worrisome.
                 (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                 If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
                 websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
                 know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
                 interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
                 far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries
                 are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
                 them to achieve any particular goal?

                 On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                   everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                   doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                   caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on
                   journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding
                   of the situation.  This has long term implications in not
                   just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
                   their actions and they act without understanding the
                   environment.  It was the same when they released
                   information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
                   Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                     discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on
                     what type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The
                     video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
                     personal information on cartels as well as states a
                     member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
                     outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
                     kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous
                     Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be
                     an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
                     Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
                     speculation.

                     Link: themeData
                     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                     distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                     government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                     Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's criminal
                     cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
                     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
                     most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats
                     towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
                     releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
                     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
                     cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a
                     fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In
                     the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                     mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                     reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
                     member are not met. The potential of conflict between
                     Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a unique
                     threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at
                     online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on
                     cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

                     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                     security threat to Mexican cartels.
                          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                     exploit online media
                          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico
                     to lash out at cartels

                     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                     pose a threat
                          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to
                     possess identifiable information on cartel members
                          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous
                     could acquire on cartels
                          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                     communications, identifiable information on cartels
                     members have to be considered in the realm of
                     possibilities for
                                 Anonymous
                                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability
                     to reveal illicit online activity (child pornography
                     rings)

                     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                     ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                     result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                     limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
                     in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                     possible retribution. They may not even know the impact
                     of any online assault of cartels.
                          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                     journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                     understand some of these individuals are forced to
                     collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                     often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                     halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals
                     will not have a significant impact on cartel            
                           operations. Politicans have been accused of
                     working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor)
                     before, however there has yet to be any consequences
                     from this.
                          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                     extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                     operations.
                             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                     science community before, coercing computer science
                     majors into working for them.
                             o    This provides the cartels with the
                     possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                      

                     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                       idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                       here.

                       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern
                       with the discussion:

                            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                       that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                            o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a
                       difference between stealing bank records from
                       government computers and overloading www.loszetas.com
                       main page.
                            o     There's no thought out process of what sort
                       of information could anon have on the cartels. What
                       kind of info is kept online and accessible to
                       potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
                       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
                       politicians and businessmen who need to worry about
                       what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                       bloggers and media were killed in previous instances.
                       Was it because they revealed operational details,
                       because they acted as informants, because they exposed
                       links with officials or because they somehow sullied
                       the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                       information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                            o     Once you identify this info - think about
                       if anon can realistically access it and disseminate it
                       so it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have
                       any intelligence capacity except for the technical
                       ability by a very small number of its members to
                       infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
                       information. Now what kind of information would a
                       cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
                       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
                       information be found? Government databases? Once we
                       know what kind of information is accessible, we can
                       also know more about the consequences of
                       dissemination.
                            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                       Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                       risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may
                       not understand the difference between an anon hacker
                       and a blogger.

                       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                         -------- Original Message --------

                          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                             From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
                         Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                               To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

                         you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                         going to need a lot more work

                         You need to lay out:

                         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                         trigger section is unclear
                         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                         is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                         capabilities
                         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                         security anything
                         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                         kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                         their connections

                         I also just want to point out that we have
                         reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very
                         least has some significant levels of sophistication
                         in their online presence, to include the use of
                         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
                         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also
                         conduct business online, in a protected fashion.

                         Karen Hooper
                         Latin America Analyst
                         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                         c: 512.750.7234
                         STRATFOR
                         www.stratfor.com
                         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         Link: themeData

                         Trigger

                         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy,
                         hackers. Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group
                         famous for...?, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                         Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
                         criminal cartels, including a video released
                         depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
                         screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video
                         release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                         criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing
                         identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers,
                         police, politicians, and journalists who collude
                         with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los
                         Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
                         face consequences. The potential of conflict between
                         Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                         unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                         different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
                         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
                         little experience in handling. i believe that
                         Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
                         not believe for a second that the cartels have no
                         experience with hackers.

                          

                         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
                         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect
                         Anonymous' reaction if their demands of releasing a
                         kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
                         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
                         threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so
                         we understand who this guy is and why/how he was
                         abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of
                         possessing revealing information on cartel members
                         and operations are true, cartels will likely respond
                         with violence against individuals revealed as
                         opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
                         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure
                         of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force
                         the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat
                         complexity i don't understand what this means. You
                         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                         effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
                         against Anonymous remains unanswered . However,
                         cartels will continue their threats against any
                         individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
                         or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here.
                         against the cartels.

                          

                         The Battle Space

                         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                         separate realities from each other. Anonymous
                         operates solely in sphere of the computer networks.
                         Anonymous does not experience geographical
                         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
                         exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely
                         true. They are physical people tho live in the real
                         world. They have names and addresses - although most
                         of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                         base consists of their technical capabilities in
                         hacking. Any information connected to the Internet
                         is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
                         the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst
                         of Mexico's population could be quite difficult.
                          Remember that most of what Anonymous has done are
                         DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
                         company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                         it does not really matter if you don't run
                         operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money
                         via e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on
                         the web than the jihadists.)

                         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but
                         it's power base consists of the perceived anonymity
                         that its members believe themselves to have, real or
                         otherwise, by operating through the internet. This
                         gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
                         and everything to practice general dickery. As the
                         popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
                         Only a fraction of the large web of people who
                         identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of
                         serious IT capability. 

                         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so
                         far has been from targeted arrests by Law
                         Enforcement Agencies.

                         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the
                         streets in US and Mexican cities. They are run as a
                         business, always looking to maximize profits and
                         expand. But they are bricks and mortar commerce.
                         Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
                         and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that
                         from insight. There is no reason to assume that Los
                         Zetas don't have a similar capacity.  Their power
                         base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                         escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas,
                         are experienced in facing different types of
                         threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands
                         of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each
                         other, cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement
                         Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
                         the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted
                         media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
                         bloggers in order to cover details of their
                         operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng
                         for this discussion. You need to focus on the
                         possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just
                         assume they have no cyber presence.

                          

                         Anonymous' Weapons

                         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous'
                         actions against criminal cartels has yet to be seen.
                         Anonymous' only ability to combat cartels lay in
                         information operations, mainly disseminating
                         sensitive information on cartels and propagating
                         anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced
                         websites in Mexico you mean so far and that we know
                         of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The
                         significance of a targeted information operations
                         campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
                         overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels
                         view main stream media outlets and social media
                         blogs as such a threat to their operations, that
                         they have continued to target journalists and
                         bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas
                         was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly,
                         on the body of a blogger. The message threatened any
                         users who denounce cartels on blogging websites.
                         getting repetitive here, and it's not really
                         addressing the subheading

                         As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                         internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is
                         ample reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of
                         possessing information they threaten to release. By
                         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
                         Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of
                         those individuals. Anonymous's ability to
                         disseminate sensitive information is limited by what
                         is available via the Internet. Government computers
                         connected to the Internet should always be
                         considered a possibility of an attack. However, as
                         with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                         governments computer networks, information available
                         to Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy
                         to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This
                         isn't clear at all

                          

                         Cartel's Defense

                                     A counter response to the video? by the
                         cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                         claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest
                         Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
                         hackers so... how has there not been a counter
                         response? also this undermines your statements above
                         about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
                         underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
                         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The
                         answer to that could very well give you some
                         indication to the technical ability of the cartels .
                         As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
                         wide web , the cartels will face a number of
                         challenges which rarely are posed for them Again,
                         how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
                         dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can
                         assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they
                         are working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers
                         threatening cartels, can operate in any region of
                         the world. Personal information including locations
                         is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it
                         or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                         figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
                         Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with
                         their online enemy, if they can physically reach out
                         to them. Or start employing hackers of their own
                         under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
                         Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                                     Cartels have been known to coerce the
                         services of Mexican citizens with a technical
                         background. Recruiting the help of computer science
                         majors through personal threats has been reported in
                         the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
                         Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
                         and drug trafficking, they will likely need the
                         assistance of technical experts to help combat any
                         threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                         bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
                         is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any
                         hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
                         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more
                         technical experience and resources than cartels,
                         struggle to find hackers through investigations. A)
                         How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the
                         guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that
                         not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                                     In order to compete with an online foe,
                         cartels will likely continue counter tactics they
                         are most familiar with, brute force. Cartels are
                         still capable of their HUMINT operations within
                         Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't
                         be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
                         communities will likely be targeted and interrogated
                         by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
                         of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
                         online media into submission i'm not really seeing
                         the online media-international hacking group
                         connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                         inflict harm, is something computer hackers have
                         unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether
                         the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence
                         of Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels
                         are able to seek out and capture members of the
                         hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the
                         collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any
                         inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

               --

               Sean Noonan

               Tactical Analyst

               Office: +1 512-279-9479

               Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

               Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

               www.stratfor.com

           --

           Sean Noonan

           Tactical Analyst

           Office: +1 512-279-9479

           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

           www.stratfor.com

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
","2011-10-25 02:47:49",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/157019_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
157077,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   Yes, in response to your first question. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Colby Martin\" <colby.martin@stratfor.com>
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Monday, October 24, 2011 7:47:49 PM
   Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels

   Sean, just to be clear

   Your point is that Anonymous hasn't mattered?  Is your argument that
   hackers haven't mattered either?  because if Anonymous is a mob of hackers
   as you argue, how haven't they mattered to their targets?  what about all
   the money spent fighting them?  and as Tristan just pointed out - how
   about HBGary Federal?  He said the CEO's SSN and address were posted on
   Twitter.  What about all the sensitive emails that were lost?  We have no
   way of knowing what was in those emails, or how they are being used to
   make money at the expense of HBGary.  I have always agreed that they
   haven't reached a level of threat to the US, but that surely doesn't mean
   they won't.  And there are quite a few countries, organizations, and
   people below that rather high standard who could not withstand an attack,
   including an email purge of personal emails onto the web. 

   On 10/24/11 7:33 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
     the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
     only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
     responsible.

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
     responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
     intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
     just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
     indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
     department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

     Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

     Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
     SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication
     devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining
     computer network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while
     SIGINT may be used with other intelligence disciplines in order to
     identify a hacker, it is not necessary and is no more related than any
     other intel discipline. SIGINT could help you identify a computer
     devices (not the operator) emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis,
     which is also separate from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could
     help in providing methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT
     wouldn't obtain those messages.

     In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
     are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and
     technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

     NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
     technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
     resources in R&D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA.
     But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

     Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
     for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing
     operations on the scale of causing physical damage to extremely
     sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that
     matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most
     prolific example of a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted
     mainly outside of the cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of
     this doesn't matter? Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks
     have physically damaged secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think
     you are downplaying too much the significance of exposing corporate
     secrets, halting businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by
     defacing their websites.

     On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
           arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
           foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected?
           No, of course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so
           good to be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers. 
           I'm saying they are more detectable than you think.  There is no
           such thing as truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will
           that trail in every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but
           it can lead to a place, an organization, and often, an
           individual. 

           2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
           responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
           cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this
           case HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
           capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking
           hackers. NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers
           but it does not make it SIGINT.

           Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

           The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
           people assume there is no attribution because there is no
           response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
           this, because no attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes,
           they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for lack of
           response, then I think they are wrong. 

           3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
           laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
           involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way
           there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is
           one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to
           trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood
           with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more
           complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational
           surveillance, developing exploits, developing programs and code,
           gaining access, exploiting that, and carrying out an attack. 
           Discovering exploits and writing code can be done entirely
           offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel agencies.
           Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point of the
           exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point is,
           if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
           remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
           IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
           cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
           more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
           linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
           Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
           to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
           things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time
           for your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the
           target, a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur
           without network activity. Look at everything that went into
           Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person
           with a new laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small
           part of necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't
           think we are discussing operations on the scale of causing
           physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is
           an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so
           far has not mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
           evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
           possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation, that
           even the best law enforcement and national intelligence agencies
           have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that
           it's very difficult for someone to successfully use Anonymous as a
           cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute
           it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is effective in identifying
           hackers?I don't, but I'm confident they are far better than you
           are allowing for.    They may not choose to cover it if it is
           small scale crime, however. 
           On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
             cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
             that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
             with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
             the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from
             China, may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese
             government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
             government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate
             there is little capability to distinguish.

             It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
             operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets
             from SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual
             responsible for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have
             turned to SIGINT organizations for collections on computer
             related material, but this was due to the US being behind in
             cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
             However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of
             years.

             Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As
             an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go
             to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the
             online activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
             accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
             etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never
             use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
             description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible
             security cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

             Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
             these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied
             to specific computer-related activities because of the
             difficulty in identifying individuals.

             I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be blown,
             would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a
             common participant in \"Anonymous\" activities, was working for a
             State? Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that
             State agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter
             buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

             On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
               bit)

               1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
               actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't,
               but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first
               real case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
               people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
               as a serious or strategic threat. 

               2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
               actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as
               a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could
               probably still be attributed if important enough to those
               agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings this
               issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies they
               did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an
               publicized attacks in the past, even before they were carried
               out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
               sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
               coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted
               Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
               damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data
               security, but this is no different than the OC groups stealing
               your credit card information.  LE will go after them, have
               some success, but the threat is not that large. 
               On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                 I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
                 have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
                 nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
                 threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
                 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                 most of the cases, they are the a**gooda** guys, sort of a
                 Robin Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when it
                 comes to their interactions with the cartels is the dubious
                 role they play: at the same time they can be fighting crime
                 by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can also
                 put lives in risk.

                 However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
                 Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth,
                 can conduct a cyber attack under a**Anonymousa** is
                 worrisome.
                 (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                 If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
                 websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
                 know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
                 interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
                 far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries
                 are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
                 them to achieve any particular goal?

                 On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                   everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                   doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                   caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on
                   journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding
                   of the situation.  This has long term implications in not
                   just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
                   their actions and they act without understanding the
                   environment.  It was the same when they released
                   information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
                   Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                     discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on
                     what type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The
                     video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
                     personal information on cartels as well as states a
                     member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
                     outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
                     kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous
                     Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be
                     an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
                     Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
                     speculation.

                     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                     distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                     government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                     Internet with a statements denouncing Mexicoa**s
                     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
                     individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October
                     10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes
                     bold threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico.
                     Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
                     police, politicians, and journalists who collude with
                     criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
                     release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
                     consequences. In the Anonymousa** video, this coming
                     November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could expect
                     Anonymousa** reaction if their demands of releasing a
                     kidnapped member are not met. The potential of conflict
                     between Mexicoa**s criminal cartels and hackers,
                     presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of
                     cartels lashing out at online bloggers, but I havena**t
                     seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
                     from hackers before. 

                     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                         a*-c-    Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                     security threat to Mexican cartels.
                         a*-c-    Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                     exploit online media
                         a*-c-    Anonymous hackers do not have to be in
                     Mexico to lash out at cartels

                     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                     pose a threat
                         a*-c-    It is unknown if Anonymousa**s claims to
                     possess identifiable information on cartel members
                         a*-c-    It is unknown what information Anonymous
                     could acquire on cartels
                         a*-c-    Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                     communications, identifiable information on cartels
                     members have to be considered in the realm of
                     possibilities for
                                 Anonymous
                                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated ita**s
                     ability to reveal illicit online activity (child
                     pornography rings)

                     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                     ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                     result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                     limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
                     in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                     possible retribution. They may not even know the impact
                     of any online assault of cartels.
                         a*-c-    Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                     journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                     understand some of these individuals are forced to
                     collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                     often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                     halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals
                     will not have a significant impact on cartel            
                           operations. Politicans have been accused of
                     working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor)
                     before, however there has yet to be any consequences
                     from this.
                         a*-c-    Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                     extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                     operations.
                             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                     science community before, coercing computer science
                     majors into working for them.
                             o    This provides the cartels with the
                     possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                      

                     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                       idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                       here.

                       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern
                       with the discussion:

                           a*-c-    we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                       that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                           a*-c-    \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a
                       difference between stealing bank records from
                       government computers and overloading www.loszetas.com
                       main page.
                           a*-c-    There's no thought out process of what
                       sort of information could anon have on the cartels.
                       What kind of info is kept online and accessible to
                       potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
                       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
                       politicians and businessmen who need to worry about
                       what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                       bloggers and media were killed in previous instances.
                       Was it because they revealed operational details,
                       because they acted as informants, because they exposed
                       links with officials or because they somehow sullied
                       the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                       information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                           a*-c-    Once you identify this info - think about
                       if anon can realistically access it and disseminate it
                       so it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have
                       any intelligence capacity except for the technical
                       ability by a very small number of its members to
                       infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
                       information. Now what kind of information would a
                       cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
                       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
                       information be found? Government databases? Once we
                       know what kind of information is accessible, we can
                       also know more about the consequences of
                       dissemination.
                           a*-c-    What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                       Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                       risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may
                       not understand the difference between an anon hacker
                       and a blogger.

                       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                         -------- Original Message --------

                          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                             From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
                         Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                               To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

                         you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                         going to need a lot more work

                         You need to lay out:

                         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                         trigger section is unclear
                         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                         is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                         capabilities
                         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                         security anything
                         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                         kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                         their connections

                         I also just want to point out that we have
                         reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very
                         least has some significant levels of sophistication
                         in their online presence, to include the use of
                         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
                         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also
                         conduct business online, in a protected fashion.

                         Karen Hooper
                         Latin America Analyst
                         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                         c: 512.750.7234
                         STRATFOR
                         www.stratfor.com
                         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         --
                         Sean Noonan
                         Tactical Analyst
                         Office: +1 512-279-9479
                         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
                         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
                         www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-25 03:18:15",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/157077_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
157151,"[alpha] INSIGHT - AZ/RUSSIA/TURKEY/IRAN - the energy soap opera -
 AZ is in trouble
","   Met with the adviser to SOCAR president. The president is currently in
   Ankara trying to finalize negotiations with Turkey for gas transit. The
   adviser I met with is going to Brussels tomorrow to meet with NATO (will
   explain why further below.)

   The adviser is Western-educated, obviously knows how to handle himself in
   a negotiation, but opened up quite a bit in the discussion.

   The first step AZ is focusing on is to get this agreement with Turkey,
   which he gives a a 50/50 chance of being finalized tomorrow (Wednesday) in
   Ankara. The basic premise of the deal is Turkey guarantees purchase of 6
   bcm for its domestic market.  Turkey then has to guarantee 10 bcm for
   TRANSPORT (not necessarily purchase for itself) for Az's buyers in Europe.
   He couldn't disclose the price that they're currently negotiating over 6
   bcm, but said the Turkish press has been claiming some prices favorable of
   course to Turkish interests. He said though that the price was very much
   competitive in comparison to the high price TUrkey pays to Russia for its
   natural gas, and AZ understands that it needs to keep that price
   competitive to get this deal through. He said that Turkey and AZ have
   agreed on a price and that the remaining issues being negotiated right now
   have to do with technical details on quality of gas, regulations, etc.
   These are all 25 year contracts.  AZ's main priority right now is simply
   to guarantee somehow, some way that it will have a market for 16 bcm by
   2017.  The Azerbaijanis don't really care which route it takes (of course
   they're looking out for their financial interests,) but the main thing is
   to just make sure they are able to sell this amount of gas no matter what.
   (keep this in mind when it comes to Russia..)

   After AZ makes this agreement with Turkey, then it will decide which
   transport route is most feasible/favorable to their interests.  Contrary
   to what the press is saying, I don't get the impression at all that AZ is
   close to picking the transport route yet.  He explained all 8 main
   criteria that AZ uses to compare the different routes (ITGI, TAP, Nabucco,
   the most recent SEEP) - price of gas, tariff, transport, regulation,
   political feasibility, project feasibility, etc. He avoided saying if any
   one of these projects is more favorable than the others, but pointed out
   that there are issues with each. Nabucco of course is very ambitious and
   the funding for the project is unclear. (He referred to the fact that only
   Az is committed to supply.) For TAP he said it may be more technically
   feasible, then he said there were 'political problems' there. I asked
   whether he meant between Turkey and Greece and he said no, but if you look
   at the map it would go through Greece, Albania and Turkey, and 2 out of
   those 3 countries have issues with each other. (Didn't realize that the
   Greece-Albania/Macedonia factor was that big a deal in this, but
   apparently it is.) He also didn't seem too thrilled with ITGI, either,
   mainly blaming it on problems with Greek regulations and bureaucracy and
   being consumed with its own financial turmoil.  He seemed most interested
   in the South Eastern European Project, the most recent one that BP is
   involved in. The problem he said is that SEEP is not that mature yet in
   all the feasibility studies and what-not, but what's most attractive about
   it is that it requires far less construction and thus is less costly than
   the other 3 options.  There is no plan yet for sponsorship on SEEP.  SOCAR
   would need a significant stake in any of these projects as a major
   shareholder, but they haven't really advanced negotiations yet on this
   proposal with the energy firms expected to be involved from Hungary,
   Bulgaria, Romania.

   What is most interesting in all this is the Russian factor. The source
   would continue to emphasize how good and personal a relationship Aliyev
   has with Putin on these matters (as well as with top-management of
   Gazprom), but he would visibly become uncomfortable and shift in his seat
   whenever I brought up Russia. AZ understands completely that it has to
   pull off a very clever balancing act with the Russians if it intends to
   see any of these projects go through. The Russians are completely playing
   it cool. He said that the last major meeting Russia had with the
   Azerbaijanis on this was back in August. They're just watching and
   waiting.  I get the impression that the Russians are quite confident in
   the levers they have to further stall any of these alternate transit
   plans. He confirmed what I heard from another Azerbaijani diplomatic
   source earlier in the day about how in 2008 Azerbaijan made an offer to
   Russia to supply around 50 percent or so of its natural gas to the South
   Stream pipeline. This was AZ's way of making a concession to Russia to
   balance against its other energy projects that circumvent Russia.  Russia
   didn't bite, though.  The Russians gave them every excuse in the book,
   saying it wasn't technically or logistically feasible. Instead, the
   Russians said that if you want to deal, then make sure that all of AZ's 16
   bcm go through Russia, and Russia only -- not to Turkey/Europe. I asked if
   the Russians are still sticking to the same core demand today, and he said
   yes.  The Azerbaijanis are also trying to soften Russia by giving them all
   these rights on trans-Caspian route with Turkmenistan, but that's not
   working either. The AZ diplomatic source earlier in the day said that
   Russia has all these levers with Georgia already (they got the hint in
   2008 and knew Russia could have bombed BTC if it wanted to. The Russians
   also have a close relationship with Germany, which the Azerbaijanis have
   taken note of. What I'm getting from all this is that Azerbaijan is quite
   concerned that Russia may have what it takes to block these projects and
   throw off the timeline again for Shah Deniz II. SOCAR source said that
   Russia should know better than to use 'uncivilized' tactics in pursuing
   its energy interests (haha.)

   I asked both of these guys individually (the diplomatic source and the
   SOCAR source) whether that means AZ envisions having to eventually just
   give in and sell the bulk of its gas to Russia. Both reacted very
   similarly. They would look down, sigh and admit yes. Of course, AZ really,
   really does not want to do this. They don't want to become dependent on
   the Russians and know that the Russians would manipulate the hell out of
   those contracts. They're trying to convince Turkey that being so dependent
   on Russian gas is a very bad idea. It all comes down to Turkey. AZ
   absolutely needs Turkey to guarantee transit of this gas no matter what.
   If Turkey doesn't do this, AZ will have to turn back to Russia.

   What the diplomatic source stressed heavily is that the US simply isnt
   there the way it was in the 1990s when BTC was being negotiated. Back
   then, US was ready to drive that project home and force feed it to Russia.
   The Europeans don't even come close to that attitude. AZ doesn't have the
   political backing they need of an external power to see through these
   projects, in my opinion.

   I asked the SOCAR source what the plans are for expanding AZ energy
   transit to Russia. Right now AZ is exporting 1.5 bcm to Russia. He says
   that AZ wants to expand that to 2 bcm next year and then possibly expand
   to 3 bcm, but is worried that Russia will be pissed off and not agree if
   AZ and Turkey come to a deal. The currnet line to Russia is old and would
   need upgrades if they tried to reach capacity of around 7 bcm. Gazprom is
   happy to do these upgrades and more -- as long as AZ transports all 16 bcm
   to Russia first. They aren't budging on that demand.

   I asked SOCAR source if he says any shift out of Turkmenistan on
   trans-Caspian. He had an interesting reply on this -- basically, AZ's
   whole strategy on Turkmenistan is to steer clear and play nice with the
   Russians. AZ's firm policy on Turkmenistan is 'you guys sort out your
   political issues with Europe AND with Russia, get the financing, build the
   pipeline, and we guarantee you'll be able to transit gas through
   Azerbaijan.\" In other words, AZ does not want to get entangled in any
   Turkmenistan political issue with Russia. They are being extremely careful
   on that front. Don't expect any movement on this end any time soon.

   Then, I brought up the Iran factor, which I find the most fascinating in
   all this.  What I heard from the Israeli ambassador a few days ago was
   that there is another big issue cropping up with Shah Deniz II concerning
   Iran.  As part of AZ's geopolitical balancing act, it made sure Iran had a
   10% stake in the Shah Deniz consortium. Now, the US congress and sanctions
   lobby is ratcheting up the pressure saying that this makes the whole
   project sanctionable. The Israeli amb said that BP is now saying they may
   not be able to go through with the project unless AZ resolves this Iran
   issue. (What is ironic is that the SOCAR guy said they will work very
   closely with the Israeli lobby in DC to convince the congress that Iran is
   not a major problem). The guy also said that Iran is not a problem because
   1) they don't have the right of decision-making 2) SD phase II's revenue
   will go to a bank in Europe, in which Iran's money will be frozen. Source
   claims that Iranians basically agreed to participate in SD2 without
   getting an immediate interest. The SOCAR source said that BP hasn't put it
   in that blunt terms, but he admitted this is becoming a big issue. He
   described how impossible it's going to be for AZ to deal with this because
   the legislation already dictates that AZ can't simply 'kick out' a member
   of the consortium. The consortium shareholder must also agree to leave. 
   Plus, AZ really does not want to piss off the Iranians right now. The
   securitiy tensions are seriously increasing between AZ and Iran (will
   explain in more detail later), and the Israeli cooperation with AZ isn't
   really helping alleviate those tensions, either. Instead, AZ is trying to
   convince NATO (This is why SOCAR source is going to Brussels tomorrow as
   he later admitted,) and the US that the cost of trying to exclude Iran is
   not worth it. THey are trying to assure US, BP, NATO, etc. that Iran
   'can't profit' off the SHah Deniz project anyway because all the money
   they get from it is going to European banks where their assets are frozen
   (not a very convincing argument, if you ask me.)  More importantly,
   they're saying that if the US tries to make Shah Deniz II contingent on
   kicking Iran out, then the whole southeastern corridor project is doomed.
   In fact, AZ could just send 10 bcm to Iran instead at a very favorable
   price. He went on to say, 'better yet, we could give 5 bcm to Russia and 5
   bcm to Iran'.\" Then let's see what US says.

   This is a really tough negotiation that AZ is getting into right now. In
   December, AZ is sending a high-level delegation to the US to try to
   convince them to not screw this up over Iran. The source joked at the end
   that our conversation (which got pretty intense) was a good rehearsal for
   his meeting at NATO HQ in Brussels, where he basically has to give the
   argument that i just outlined. I think it's going to be very difficult for
   AZ to make this case, though. Should have more perspective on this issue
   from the Israelis after a dinner meeting tonight.

   Trying to make AZ into a Dubai - transit hub for flights, searching for
   niche in non-oil sector - cheaper for refueling for asia flights to stop
   in Baku, expand Elat port
","2011-10-25 15:03:16",1,"2012-03-02 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/157151_-alpha-insight-az-russia-turkey-iran-the-energy-soap-opera.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
157158,"Re: MORE* - Re: G3* - LEBANON/CYPRUS - FM to go to Cyprus for talks
	on	maritime border, says Qabbani
","   hah - i was expecting this. now, turkey seems to be countering Cyprus'
   move by partnering with Lebanon. There are couple of dynamics here:
   - Cyrpus and Lebanon signed their maritime treaty in 2007 and at the time
   everything was fine.
   - Israel found vast nat gas reserves in Leviathan and Tamal. 
   - Lebanon and Israel have a dispute over EEZ demarcation (Leb claims that
   Israel breaches 860 sq km of its EEZ space).
   - Cyprus knows that it is able to push its exploration ambitions thanks to
   the disagreements btw Turkey and Isr (bear in mind that Cyprus and Isr
   signed a maritime agreement few months after Mavi Marmara incident). So, I
   don't think that it will adjust its treaty with Lebanon at the expense of
   Israel.
   - Turkey sees an opportunity to use Leb/Isr dispute as a means to contain
   Cyprus and Israel, but again, what can it do?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Michael Wilson\" <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
   To: \"alerts\" <alerts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, October 19, 2011 6:44:24 PM
   Subject: MORE* - Re: G3* - LEBANON/CYPRUS - FM to go to Cyprus for talks
   on        maritime border, says Qabbani

   Mansour: Turkish delegation to discuss Lebanona**s maritime treaty with
   Cyprus
   October 19, 2011   share
        
   http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=323702

   Minister of Foreign Affairs Adnan Mansour said on Wednesday that Turkey
   a**will send a team to hold discussions with Lebanese officials regarding
   [Lebanona**s] maritime treaty with Cyprus, since Ankara has its own point
   of view regarding the treaty,a** the National News Agency reported.

   Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu had told Prime Minister Najib
   Mikati that his country rejects Lebanona**s maritime treaty with Cyprus.

   Mansour also said that Iranian ambassador to Lebanon Ghadanfar Roken
   Abadia**s visit to Lebanona**s Foreign Ministry on Thursday will tackle
   preparations for Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehia**s upcoming
   visit to Lebanon next week.

   On 10/17/11 11:58 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     FM to go to Cyprus for talks on maritime border, says Qabbani
     October 17, 2011   share
        
     http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=322952

     Parliamentary Energy and Water Committee chief Mohammad Qabbani said on
     Monday that Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour will head to Cyprus to
     continue talks about amending the maritime treaty between the two
     countries.

     a**Mansour will head to Cyprus to amend the treaty made with Cyprus
     concerning Lebanona**s economic zone and to prepare for the treaty [to
     demarcate the border] with Cyprus,a** the National News agency quoted
     Qabbani as saying.

     a**[Simultaneously] discussions will be held with Syria to demarcate the
     maritime borders between [Lebanon and Syria],a** he added.

     Qabbani also said that preparations will start in the first half of 2012
     to give licenses for companies seeking to drill for petroleum resources
     along Lebanona**s maritime coast.

     In July, Israel's cabinet approved a map of the Jewish State's proposed
     maritime borders with Lebanon, which is to be submitted to the UN.

     Following Israela**s approval of the map, Energy Minister Gebran Bassil
     countered that Lebanon will not give up its maritime rights.

     Lebanon and Israel differ on their interpretation of their maritime
     borders, which has become a contentious issue following the discovery of
     potential offshore petroleum resources.

     To read more:
     http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=322952#ixzz1b3gKKkB2
     Only 25% of a given NOW Lebanon article can be republished. For
     information on republishing rights from NOW Lebanon:
     http://www.nowlebanon.com/Sub.aspx?ID=125478

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-20 09:44:15",1,"2012-03-10 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/157158_re-more-re-g3-lebanon-cyprus-fm-to-go-to-cyprus-for-talks-on.html","emre.dogru@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
157578,"[alpha] Occupy Wall Street (DHS analysis)
","3","2011-10-25 18:04:51",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/157578_-alpha-occupy-wall-street-dhs-analysis-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com","attach/13/13637_DHS IP Special.pdf"
159826,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored cyber
   warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing that, since you
   can conduct a cyber attack without associating with a hacker group and
   still deny / cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual attacking
   US computer assets from China, may be working by himself or on behalf of
   the Chinese government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
   government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate there is
   little capability to distinguish.

   It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network operations do
   not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from SIGINT would not
   directly help you track an individual responsible for hacking State run
   servers. In the past, I have turned to SIGINT organizations for
   collections on computer related material, but this was due to the US being
   behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
   However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of years.

   Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an extreme
   scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a Starbucks with
   free public wifi, and never attribute the online activity to something
   revealing (accessing personal email accounts, tweeting, entering personal
   information to the laptop, etc..), and begin hacking government email
   accounts then never use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
   description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible security
   cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

   Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to these
   enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to specific
   computer-related activities because of the difficulty in identifying
   individuals.

   I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be blown, would be
   the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common participant in
   \"Anonymous\" activities, was working for a State? Anonymous has denounced
   state governments before, if that State agent organizes an attack amongst
   his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

   On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a bit)

     1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything actually
     harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but i'm very
     doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real case where they
     could do some minor damage--to individual people, not not to an
     organization or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
     threat. 

     2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually pretty
     good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover, but that would be
     pretty easy to bungle, and could probably still be attributed if
     important enough to those agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually
     brings this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies
     they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an publicized
     attacks in the past, even before they were carried out.  The attack on
     the Playstation Network was more sophisticated than anonymous' usual
     work (though potentially coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that
     distracted Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
     damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data security, but
     this is no different than the OC groups stealing your credit card
     information.  LE will go after them, have some success, but the threat
     is not that large. 
     On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

       Link: themeData

       I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
       broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
       almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
       Reviewing their list of attacks
       (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of the
       cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the internet
       . The interesting thing when it comes to their interactions with the
       cartels is the dubious role they play: at the same time they can be
       fighting crime by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can
       also put lives in risk.

       However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by Anonymous.
       The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can conduct a cyber
       attack under \"Anonymous\" is worrisome.
       (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

       If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government websites,
       or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know more about these
       guys. Who they are? What are they interested in? How they operate? Who
       they have targeted so far? How can I defend myself from them? In what
       countries are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
       them to achieve any particular goal?

       On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can
         build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to
         innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing
         on journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the
         situation.  This has long term implications in not just Mexico. 
         They don't consider the consequences of their actions and they act
         without understanding the environment.  It was the same when they
         released information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
         Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
           possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
           Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by Anonymous,
           threatens revealing personal information on cartels as well as
           states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
           outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped.
           According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous
           Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers in
           Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although
           that is speculation.

           Link: themeData
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
           denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
           individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
           most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
           the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
           identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists
           who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los
           Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
           consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
           was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
           their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
           potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and
           hackers, presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
           lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting
           on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

           What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
           threat to Mexican cartels.
                o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
           media
                o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash
           out at cartels

           While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
           threat
                o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
           identifiable information on cartel members
                o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire
           on cartels
                o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
           communications, identifiable information on cartels members have
           to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                       Anonymous
                       o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
           illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

           Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
           ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result,
           their understanding of cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous
           may act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but
           this may blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even
           know the impact of any online assault of cartels.
                o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
           will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
           individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
           drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
           halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not
           have a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
           Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
           Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
           consequences from this.
                o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
           are willing to go protect their operations.
                   o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                   o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
           community before, coercing computer science majors into working
           for them.
                   o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
           discovering hackers within Mexico.

            

           On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

             Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
             there are several issues to address and fix here.

             These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
             discussion:

                  o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine
             but we can't gloss over that fact
                  o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
             between stealing bank records from government computers and
             overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                  o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
             information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
             kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
             talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
             politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
             going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
             killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
             operational details, because they acted as informants, because
             they exposed links with officials or because they somehow
             sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
             information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                  o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
             realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a
             measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity
             except for the technical ability by a very small number of its
             members to infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
             information. Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on
             a network that is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
             Where else could information be found? Government databases?
             Once we know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
             know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                  o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
             trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
             killings done by people who may not understand the difference
             between an anon hacker and a blogger.

             On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

               wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                   Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                   From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
               Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                     To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

               you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need
               a lot more work

               You need to lay out:

               a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
               section is unclear
               b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
               therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
               c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
               anything
               d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
               anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

               I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
               insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
               levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
               the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
               is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
               business online, in a protected fashion.

               Karen Hooper
               Latin America Analyst
               o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
               c: 512.750.7234
               STRATFOR
               www.stratfor.com
               On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

               On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Link: themeData

               Trigger

               Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
               lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
               denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
               released depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
               screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels.
               Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican? American?
               taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude
               with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
               release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
               The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels
               and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
               cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los
               Zetas leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
               little experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
               experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
               that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                

               In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
               mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
               their demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be
               mentioned right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
               threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so we
               understand who this guy is and why/how he was abducted. are
               not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
               information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
               will likely respond with violence against individuals revealed
               as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?.
               It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who
               collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving
               the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
               means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
               effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
               Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
               their threats against any individual using online media WC....
               you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers
               here. against the cartels.

                

               The Battle Space

               Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
               realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
               of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
               geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
               exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
               are physical people tho live in the real world. They have
               names and addresses - although most of them are likely outside
               of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their technical
               capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
               Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
               the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's
               population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
               what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
               Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
               revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run
               operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
               e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than
               the jihadists.)

               Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
               base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
               believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
               through the internet. This gives an opening for people
               disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
               dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience =
               troll. Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
               themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious IT
               capability. 

               The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
               been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

               The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US
               and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking
               to maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
               commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
               and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from
               insight. There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't
               have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
               amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels
               like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of
               threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel
               on cartel violence. While battling each other, cartels still
               face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
               avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
               have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
               bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok...
               but that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need
               to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't
               just assume they have no cyber presence.

                

               Anonymous' Weapons

               Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
               criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability
               to combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
               disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
               anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites
               in Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
               admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
               guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
               campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
               overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main
               stream media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
               to their operations, that they have continued to target
               journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
               Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
               the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
               denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
               here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

               As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
               risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to
               suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing information they
               threaten to release. By releasing identities of individuals
               cooperating with Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life
               of those individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
               sensitive information is limited by what is available via the
               Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
               should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
               However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
               governments computer networks, information available to
               Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire. 
               what are you trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                

               Cartel's Defense

                           A counter response to the video? by the cartels
               has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a
               kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun
               addressing the threat posed by hackers so... how has there not
               been a counter response? also this undermines your statements
               above about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
               underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How did
               they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very
               well give you some indication to the technical ability of the
               cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
               wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
               rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
               whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You
               can assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they are
               working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening
               cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
               information including locations is only available if a hacker
               chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy
               enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
               Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
               online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or
               start employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
               Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                           Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
               Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
               help of computer science majors through personal threats has
               been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported
               where?.  Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
               and drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of
               technical experts to help combat any threat by computer
               hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been
               demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of
               identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
               enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
               experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find
               hackers through investigations. A) How do you know they are
               not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm
               goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
               track down

                           In order to compete with an online foe, cartels
               will likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar
               with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
               operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they
               wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
               communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
               members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
               likely continue to be used to scare online media into
               submission i'm not really seeing the online
               media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
               manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
               hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life.
               Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of
               Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able to
               seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
               Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go on and
               shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 20:38:17",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/159826_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","tristan.reed@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
160395,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these
   in the US?
    What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
   I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
   whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
   because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
   revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of understanding
   of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is expendable to
   cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of coercion.

   Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
   cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of el
   chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication as a
   tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable intelligence,
   the government will use it against the cartels. That's a physical threat,
   if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify that Anonymous can
   not directly effect physical security. Any impact to the cartel in
   revealing information will be from actions of rival cartels or the GoM.
   They may release information on a given politician being linked to the
   cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the politician will feel an impact
   (Just because Anonymous says there is a link, doesn't make it true). It
   would be up to others to take action.

   Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online activity
   (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to conduct significant
   logistics and business online. We don't know how much, but we do know they
   will have some points of operational vulnerability I have heard of cartels
   doing business online, but don't have specific examples which could be
   used in assessing their vulnerability online.

   by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested
   or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I should say,
   there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out politicians as
   colluding.
   On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

     Karen Hooper
     Latin America Analyst
     o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
     c: 512.750.7234
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com
     On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
     cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
     to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
     personal information on cartels as well as states a member had been
     kidnapped. I could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of
     the individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
     (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an
     individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
     Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

     Link: themeData
     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
     denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
     drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent
     video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels
     in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they
     specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the
     US?
      What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
     group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
     face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
     mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
     demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
     conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a
     unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at online
     bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any
     headaches from hackers before. 

     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
     Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the
     head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using
     publication as a tool to force government action. If you reveal
     actionable intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels.
     That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
     cartels

     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
     information on cartel members
          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
     cartels
          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
     identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
     realm of possibilities for
                 Anonymous
                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
     illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are
     known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't
     know how much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
     vulnerability

     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent
     world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of
     cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when
     sitting in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
     retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
     cartels.
          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
     cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
     forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
     victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
     identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
     cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
     working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor) before, however
     there has yet to be any consequences from this. by \"no consequences\"
     what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and
     that happens all the time.
          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
     willing to go protect their operations.
             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
     before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
             o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
     discovering hackers within Mexico.
     need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply publishing
     tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the same camp as
     the bloggers

      

     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
       are several issues to address and fix here.

       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
       discussion:

            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
       can't gloss over that fact
            o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
       stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
       www.loszetas.com main page.
            o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
       could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
       accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
       businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
       Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
       instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
       they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
       because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
       kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
            o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
       realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
       damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
       technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
       certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
       information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
       Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
       accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
       dissemination.
            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
       back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by
       people who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker
       and a blogger.

       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

         -------- Original Message --------

          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
             From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
         Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
               To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

         you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
         more work

         You need to lay out:

         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
         unclear
         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
         therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
         breaches their systems or exposes their connections

         I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
         insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
         of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to
         assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
         protected fashion.

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         Link: themeData

         Trigger

         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
         Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out
         at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
         Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...?
         a person talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With
         the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
         the criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
         Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group
         demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
         consequences. The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal
         cartels and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
         cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
         experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no experience
         with the cartels. I do not believe for a second that the cartels
         have no experience with hackers.

          

         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
         day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
         releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back.
         Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how
         he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing
         revealing information on cartel members and operations are true,
         cartels will likely respond with violence against individuals
         revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials
         who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
         Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this means. You
         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel
         will be able to retaliate against Anonymous remains unanswered .
         However, cartels will continue their threats against any individual
         using online media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not
         talking about bloggers here. against the cartels.

          

         The Battle Space

         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
         realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
         the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
         cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
         tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses - although
         most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base
         consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any information
         connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers.
         (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of
         Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
         what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
         Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in revenue,
         but it does not really matter if you don't run operations on the
         web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far
         less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
         consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
         themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
         internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
         and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
         goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web
         of people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of
         serious IT capability. 

         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
         targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
         Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
         maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
         commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
         issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.
         Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and escalating
         brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing
         different types of threats. Cartels are always suffering at the
         hands of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each other,
         cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels
         wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
         have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
         bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok... but
         that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus
         on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume
         they have no cyber presence.

          

         Anonymous' Weapons

         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
         criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
         combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
         sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
         statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean
         so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a
         targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
         individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
         Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
         such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
         target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
         Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
         body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce
         cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
         really addressing the subheading

         As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
         disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous
         is capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
         cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals.
         Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive information is limited
         by what is available via the Internet. Government computers
         connected to the Internet should always be considered a possibility
         of an attack. However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the
         US governments computer networks, information available to Mexico's
         intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you
         trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

          

         Cartel's Defense

                     A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet
         to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by
         Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed
         by hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also
         this undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley
         internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that
         could very well give you some indication to the technical ability of
         the cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
         wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely
         are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole
         agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume
         (and we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
         disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in
         any region of the world. Personal information including locations is
         only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject
         of the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
         work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
         online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
         employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger things
         have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                     Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
         Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of
         computer science majors through personal threats has been reported
         in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels
         operate in the world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they
         will likely need the assistance of technical experts to help combat
         any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside
         of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable
         of identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
         experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers
         through investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
         (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not
         all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                     In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
         likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
         force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
         Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
         with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be
         targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
         public display of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
         online media into submission i'm not really seeing the online
         media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
         manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer hackers
         have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
         cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to
         be seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
         the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff and
         simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 18:19:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/160395_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","tristan.reed@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
160928,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG arrested 10
     Russian spies last year, are you willing to say foreign intel is not
     capable of conducting espionage undetected?

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
     responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
     intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
     just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
     indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
     department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT. The
     question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many people assume
     there is no attribution because there is no response, but I don't think
     that is accurate.  Many people say this, because no attribution is one
     reason for no response.

     3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new laptop and
     start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack involves much more than
     a recently bought laptop.  In the same way there is an attack cycle for
     a terrorist attack or crime, there is one for a cyber attack.  A very
     simple attack may be as hard to trace as a nearly-random mugging in the
     dark in a neighborhood with much more serious crime and no CCTV
     cameras.  A more complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational
     surveillance, developing exploits, developing programs and code, gaining
     access, exploiting that, and carrying out an attack.  Discovering
     exploits and writing code can be done entirely offline, out of sight of
     law enforcement or intel agencies. Pre-operational surveillance and
     gaining access (the point of the exploit you write offline) would fit in
     my example. The point is, if you don't link your computer to
     identifiable information, you remain anonymous.  And that takes time,
     giving more time for your exposure Exposure comes from network activity
     with the target, a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can
     occur without network activity. Look at everything that went into
     Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person with a
     new laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of
     necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
     discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage to
     extremely sensitive equipment .  All of this activity provides activity
     and evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
     possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation, that even
     the best law enforcement and national intelligence agencies have trouble
     or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that it's very difficult
     for someone to successfully use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ,
     MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute it.  How do you know if NSA or
     GHQ is effective in identifying hackers? They may not choose to cover it
     if it is small scale crime, however. 
     On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored cyber
       warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing that, since
       you can conduct a cyber attack without associating with a hacker group
       and still deny / cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual
       attacking US computer assets from China, may be working by himself or
       on behalf of the Chinese government, but unless the US has other intel
       on the Chinese government's cyber warfare activities in order to
       corroborate there is little capability to distinguish.

       It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
       operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from
       SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual responsible for
       hacking State run servers. In the past, I have turned to SIGINT
       organizations for collections on computer related material, but this
       was due to the US being behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where
       to assign responsibility. However, this has changed dramatically in
       the last couple of years.

       Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an
       extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a
       Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the online
       activity to something revealing (accessing personal email accounts,
       tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop, etc..), and
       begin hacking government email accounts then never use the laptop
       again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of my appearance
       from Starbuck's patrons or possible security cameras, I can not think
       of way to identify me.

       Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to these
       enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to specific
       computer-related activities because of the difficulty in identifying
       individuals.

       I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be blown, would
       be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common
       participant in \"Anonymous\" activities, was working for a State?
       Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that State agent
       organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs
       could a LEA look for to distinguish?

       On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a bit)

         1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything actually
         harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but i'm very
         doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real case where
         they could do some minor damage--to individual people, not not to an
         organization or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
         threat. 

         2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually
         pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover, but
         that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could probably still be
         attributed if important enough to those agencies.  The recent attack
         on Sony actually brings this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves
         anonymous denies they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have
         claimed an publicized attacks in the past, even before they were
         carried out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
         sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
         coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted Sony's IT
         security).  But whoever did it, again, no real damage came of it. 
         Congress is holding hearings over data security, but this is no
         different than the OC groups stealing your credit card information. 
         LE will go after them, have some success, but the threat is not that
         large. 
         On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

           Link: themeData

           I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
           broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
           almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
           Reviewing their list of attacks
           (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of
           the cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the
           internet . The interesting thing when it comes to their
           interactions with the cartels is the dubious role they play: at
           the same time they can be fighting crime by revealing cartel
           members/supporters, but they can also put lives in risk.

           However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
           Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can
           conduct a cyber attack under \"Anonymous\" is worrisome.
           (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

           If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
           websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know
           more about these guys. Who they are? What are they interested in?
           How they operate? Who they have targeted so far? How can I defend
           myself from them? In what countries are they active? Should I
           worry about them at all? Can I use them to achieve any particular
           goal?

           On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else
             can build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they
             pose to innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico. 
             By focusing on journalists or taxi drivers they show little
             understanding of the situation.  This has long term implications
             in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
             their actions and they act without understanding the
             environment.  It was the same when they released information on
             the Sony Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt
             innocent people to prove a point. 

             On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
               possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
               Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by
               Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on cartels
               as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
               find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
               individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
               (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it
               may be an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
               Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

               Link: themeData
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
               distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government
               websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
               statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a
               video depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug
               cartels on October 10? With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
               Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
               police, politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
               cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow
               kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In the
               Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
               day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands
               of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
               conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
               presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
               lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any
               reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers
               before. 

               What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                    o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
               threat to Mexican cartels.
                    o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit
               online media
                    o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to
               lash out at cartels

               While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose
               a threat
                    o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
               identifiable information on cartel members
                    o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could
               acquire on cartels
                    o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
               communications, identifiable information on cartels members
               have to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                           Anonymous
                           o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to
               reveal illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

               Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
               ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
               result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
               limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting in
               front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
               retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online
               assault of cartels.
                    o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
               journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some
               of these individuals are forced to collude with cartels.    
                         Taxi drivers are often victims of extortion or
               coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
               individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel    
                             operations. Politicans have been accused of
               working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor) before,
               however there has yet to be any consequences from this.
                    o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent
               cartels are willing to go protect their operations.
                       o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                       o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
               community before, coercing computer science majors into
               working for them.
                       o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
               discovering hackers within Mexico.

                

               On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                 Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea
                 but there are several issues to address and fix here.

                 These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
                 discussion:

                      o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's
                 fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                      o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a
                 difference between stealing bank records from government
                 computers and overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                      o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
                 information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of
                 info is kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You
                 seem to be talking about identities, whose? If anything it's
                 dirty cops, politicians and businessmen who need to worry
                 about what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                 bloggers and media were killed in previous instances. Was it
                 because they revealed operational details, because they
                 acted as informants, because they exposed links with
                 officials or because they somehow sullied the cartel's
                 reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
                 to the cartels themselves?
                      o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon
                 can realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes
                 a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence
                 capacity except for the technical ability by a very small
                 number of its members to infiltrate certain networks and
                 databases and steal information. Now what kind of
                 information would a cartel keep on a network that is
                 connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else
                 could information be found? Government databases? Once we
                 know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
                 know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                      o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
                 trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
                 killings done by people who may not understand the
                 difference between an anon hacker and a blogger.

                 On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                   -------- Original Message --------

                    Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                       Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                       From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
                   Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                         To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

                   you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to
                   need a lot more work

                   You need to lay out:

                   a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
                   section is unclear
                   b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is,
                   and therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
                   c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
                   anything
                   d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
                   anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their
                   connections

                   I also just want to point out that we have reasonable
                   reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some
                   significant levels of sophistication in their online
                   presence, to include the use of cyber currencies and
                   significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume that
                   Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
                   protected fashion.

                   Karen Hooper
                   Latin America Analyst
                   o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                   c: 512.750.7234
                   STRATFOR
                   www.stratfor.com
                   On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                   On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                   Link: themeData

                   Trigger

                   Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
                   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
                   lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
                   statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including
                   a video released depicting...? a person talking? a voice?
                   words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent
                   video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                   criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
                   Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                   journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
                   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
                   otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
                   between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                   unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                   different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a
                   conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
                   experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
                   experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
                   that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                    

                   In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                   reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member
                   this should be mentioned right up front. Cartels have a
                   member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
                   enough details so we understand who this guy is and
                   why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims
                   of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
                   operations are true, cartels will likely respond with
                   violence against individuals revealed as opposing cartel
                   members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is
                   likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude
                   with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
                   Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
                   means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                   effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
                   Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
                   continue their threats against any individual using online
                   media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking
                   about bloggers here. against the cartels.

                    

                   The Battle Space

                   Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                   separate realities from each other. Anonymous operates
                   solely in sphere of the computer networks. Anonymous does
                   not experience geographical boundaries. All personalities
                   within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
                   not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in
                   the real world. They have names and addresses - although
                   most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                   base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking.
                   Any information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to
                   exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual
                   cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
                   be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
                   has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or
                   a big company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                   it does not really matter if you don't run operations on
                   the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They
                   are also far less dependent on the web than the
                   jihadists.)

                   Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's
                   power base consists of the perceived anonymity that its
                   members believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by
                   operating through the internet. This gives an opening for
                   people disgruntled by anything and everything to practice
                   general dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity +
                   audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
                   people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any
                   sort of serious IT capability. 

                   The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
                   been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

                   The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in
                   US and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always
                   looking to maximize profits and expand. But they are
                   bricks and mortar commerce. Yes..... but they use the
                   internet to launder money and issue commands. We know that
                   Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to
                   assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity. 
                   Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                   escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
                   experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels
                   are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
                   violence. While battling each other, cartels still face
                   arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
                   avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money,
                   cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists
                   and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
                   operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
                   discussion. You need to focus on the possible
                   vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
                   have no cyber presence.

                    

                   Anonymous' Weapons

                   Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions
                   against criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous'
                   only ability to combat cartels lay in information
                   operations, mainly disseminating sensitive information on
                   cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via social
                   media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and
                   that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                   cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of
                   a targeted information operations campaign by technically
                   elite individuals can not be overlooked should not be
                   underestimated. Cartels view main stream media outlets and
                   social media blogs as such a threat to their operations,
                   that they have continued to target journalists and
                   bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was
                   placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
                   body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
                   denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
                   here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

                   As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                   internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample
                   reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing
                   information they threaten to release. By releasing
                   identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
                   cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
                   individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
                   information is limited by what is available via the
                   Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
                   should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
                   However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                   governments computer networks, information available to
                   Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to
                   acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
                   clear at all

                    

                   Cartel's Defense

                               A counter response to the video? by the
                   cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                   claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los
                   Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by hackers
                   so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
                   undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is
                   soley internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities
                   of associated members. How did they find teh Anonymous
                   member? The answer to that could very well give you some
                   indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
                   Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web
                   , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
                   rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG
                   has whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in
                   cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
                   indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
                   cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any
                   region of the world. Personal information including
                   locations is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge
                   it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                   figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous.
                   Cartels are only capable of dealing with their online
                   enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
                   employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
                   Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                               Cartels have been known to coerce the services
                   of Mexican citizens with a technical background.
                   Recruiting the help of computer science majors through
                   personal threats has been reported in the past where? What
                   cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
                   world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will
                   likely need the assistance of technical experts to help
                   combat any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                   bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
                   unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
                   operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
                   such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and
                   resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers through
                   investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
                   (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume
                   that not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                               In order to compete with an online foe,
                   cartels will likely continue counter tactics they are most
                   familiar with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of
                   their HUMINT operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would
                   we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged
                   connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
                   and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
                   public display of violence will likely continue to be used
                   to scare online media into submission i'm not really
                   seeing the online media-international hacking group
                   connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                   inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
                   encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
                   cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will
                   remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
                   capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could
                   call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off
                   any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-25 00:07:40",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/160928_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","tristan.reed@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
161338,"Re: [latam] G3/S3* - PARAGUAY/BRAZIL - Govt passes measure creating
 50 km security zone along border with Brazil, no foreigners can own land
 there and military will review land titles;
 Govt could grant special permission in some cases and not apply thi","   One big problem I see with enforcing this is the land-owning angle more so
   than the nationality angle.  If we know that there are second generation
   Brasiguayos born in Paraguay or nationalized Brazilians, then the
   Paraguayan Govt knows it as well.  A direct attack on illegals won't
   necessarily solve any problems because some of these people are legit
   Paraguayans. This also opens the door for Brazil to voice an opinion about
   the treatment of its citizens.  On the other hand, Brazil cannot tell
   Paragauy how to handle its land reform issue.

   Also, the law does provide a process for foreigners to keep their land
   provided they show proof of the necessary documents etc.  If Paraguay
   really didn't want foreigners, I dont see why they would include this as a
   possiblity.  Lastly, the Paraguayan Govt has also run some campaigns in
   the coutry side in the last 3-4 years to help normalize the immigration
   status of Brasiguayos in small towns which would benefit workers.  This
   may not have gotten them all but efforts have been made.

   I see the real problem as land titles.  Indert has done a crappy job with
   records - lack of organization, lack of enforcement, lack of money and
   tons of corruption.  For some it's unclear who even own what.  I think
   Paraguay is trying to better idea of who owns what where legitimately and
   once they know that they can proceed with a plan. Right now there's just a
   lot of people making a lot of noise and the Govt has little control over
   the situation.  I think moves like this help the Govt take back some of
   that control.

   And worth a note is Lugo's approach trying not to make a big deal out of
   this.  He's said it's just enforcing a law that's been around for a while
   and that it's not about taking/giving rights away but regulating and
   normalizing things.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Renato Whitaker\" <renato.whitaker@stratfor.com>
   To: \"LatAm AOR\" <latam@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, October 27, 2011 2:17:34 PM
   Subject: Re: [latam] G3/S3* - PARAGUAY/BRAZIL - Govt passes measure
   creating 50 km security zone along border with Brazil, no foreigners can
   own land there and military will review land titles; Govt could grant
   special permission in some cases and not apply this law

   I can see this as being largely benign to land-holding Brasiguayos; many
   are naturalized Paraguayan citizens or at least have naturalized children
   they can pass the deed on to. This could be tricky for the Brasiguayo
   workers, though. The law doesn't specifically mention illegal laborers but
   if the army now has the right to search and ascertain the legality of a
   land plot this could couple with any sort of illegal immigrant law in
   place in Paraguay. Do we know of such laws?

   On 10/27/11 2:00 PM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

     Just to clarify in Paraguay ere is a border security bill since 2005 and
     Lugo just made a decree so that the Govt can regulate the law that
     already exists.
     http://www.abc.com.py/nota/lugo-anuncio-decreto-reglamentario-para-la-ley-de-seguridad-fronteriza/
     http://espanol.upi.com/Politica/2011/10/26/Lugo-anuncia-vigencia-de-decreto-sobre-seguridad-fronteriza/UPI-13181319624254/
     As for Brazil, so far I've not seen any Govt comments.  In OS the story
     seems to have been picked up by a paper in Parana
     http://www.parana-online.com.br/colunistas/320/88799/

     GOOGLE
     Tension along the border

     The president of Paraguay, Fernando Lugo, said on Wednesday the signing
     of the decree regulating the so-called \"Law of the Border Range,\" which
     establishes a security measure, restrictions on ownership by foreigners
     of land located within a radius of 50 km of the boundaries of the
     country.

     It is a normal measure, widely adopted around the world, based on the
     principles of sovereignty and the risk that a large foreign population,
     located on the borders of the country, can lead to the creation of
     enclaves or to alter the boundaries set .

     In the case of Paraguay, two factors add to the powder keg:
     disorganization (historical or corruption) of a State which, until
     today, even implemented a national registry of land and owners, and the
     fact that much of the Brazilian colony is installed, just within the
     border strip.

     In press statements issued yesterday morning (26), in Asuncion, Lugo
     played down any impact. \"This law does not take and not give rights.
     Let's check the land status, but who is the rightful owner should not be
     afraid,\" he said.

     The problem, however, is precisely the concept. What has to be a
     \"beneficial owner\"? Remember, at this point that where properties were
     sold by the government to more than one owner, who therefore have
     scriptures and authentic documents, are common and affect even entire
     municipalities in Paraguay.

     The judiciary, slow and without the need for clarity, not just slow, as
     it often fails to deliver decisions on time. Concrete way, only the
     uncertainty of farmers' brasiguaios \"that over the years, built their
     lives and property in the neighboring country.

     As an immediate exit, those who have not made it, there is the option to
     become naturalized Paraguayan. In the world of hypothetical solutions,
     if the law is for foreigners, this would be sufficient antidote. In the
     case of Paraguay, however, there is no simple solution or magic. Legal
     uncertainty in the field must, once and for all be eradicated from the
     land without evil (the name by which the Guarani were related to their
     paradise).

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Karen Hooper\" <hooper@stratfor.com>
     To: \"LatAm AOR\" <latam@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Thursday, October 27, 2011 1:41:37 PM
     Subject: Re: [latam] G3/S3* - PARAGUAY/BRAZIL - Govt passes measure
     creating 50 km security zone along border with Brazil, no foreigners can
     own land there and military will review land titles; Govt could grant
     special permission in some cases and not apply this law

     Has Brazil reacted to this?

     Karen Hooper
     Latin America Analyst
     o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
     c: 512.750.7234
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com
     On 10/27/11 10:05 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

       Is this the Braziguayos area?

       On 10/27/11 9:42 AM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

         will be very interesting to see just how many people in the border
         area have legal Paraguayan documents or are foreigners (or both) and
         also to what extent the Govt grants exceptions.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         GOOGLE
         Military inquire land titles in the border areas
         October 27, 2011 00:00 -
         http://www.abc.com.py/nota/militares-indagaran-titulos-de-tierras-en-las-zonas-de-frontera/
          
         The Executive Branch yesterday regulated the law that set a border
         security zone throughout the Republic. The rule prohibits foreigners
         and legal entities composed largely of foreigners, natives of
         neighboring countries of Paraguay, to own land in a strip of 50
         kilometers.

         Part of the decree that was released yesterday by the Executive that
         the law regulates border security.
         The decree gives the military the authority to verify the conditions
         of rural real estate domain, whether domestic or foreign owned.

         The case relates to the 2532 Act in force since 2005, but was never
         regulated by the power manager. Yesterday was released the 7525 Act
         which, among other things, determines what the public institutions
         responsible and the mechanism for implementing it.

         Keep in mind that the law provides for the strip of 50 kilometers
         for foreigners and some specific legal persons mentioned above. It
         also clarifies that the same can not be owners, condominium owners
         or beneficial owners of rural properties.

         By way of exception, the same law states that land may only have the
         border who have special permission by executive decree, founded on
         reasons of public interest, as those activities that generate
         employment of labor in the border security zone.

         The Act also grants authority to the Ministry of Defense to perform
         at the National Registration of the steps necessary to establish the
         zone of security.

         New feature

         The decree states that the purpose of the inventory of rural
         properties in the border region, is granted authority to the
         Ministry of Defence to identify the conditions of ownership,
         condominium or usufruct of rural land, whether they are owned by
         nationals or foreigners who are residing or exploding through
         leasing, dedicated to mining activities, industrial or trust, within
         the said reference zone.

         Foreigners who want to keep land in the time domain and meet the
         requirements established by law, mentioned above, must submit an
         application to the Ministry of National Defense.

         There is an article of the decree that clearly has to fulfill the
         mission entrusted to the Ministry of National Defense, this will
         take place in close cooperation with the Armed Forces, \"military
         personnel being fully authorized to perform the function indicated
         in coordination with the National Land Registry and the National
         Institute of Rural Development and Land (INDERT). \"

         The regulation also states that the commander of the Armed Forces
         must have the commanders of units located within the band perform
         regular safety checks and report to the Interagency Commission
         Border Security Zone (CIZOSEF), regarding compliance with the
         provisions of the Act.

         A?Blow to the property?

         The decree regulates the law that set a border security zone
         provides that managers can control the inventory or property require
         documents to people who hold land in the area of a**a**50
         kilometers. The owner or occupier of property must file papers
         within a period not exceeding 72 hours, otherwise the Office shall
         initiate appropriate action. They must file title, maps and payslips
         georeferenced property tax. Some benchmarks of the field believe
         that compliance requirements are impossible in the time allotted and
         fear is a step in the government's attack on the farmers.
         Militares indagarA!n tAtulos de tierras en las zonas de frontera
         27 de Octubre de 2011 00:00 -
         http://www.abc.com.py/nota/militares-indagaran-titulos-de-tierras-en-las-zonas-de-frontera/
          
         El Poder Ejecutivo reglamentA^3 ayer la ley que fija una zona de
         seguridad fronteriza en toda la RepA-oblica. La norma prohAbe a los
         extranjeros y a las personas jurAdicas integradas mayoritariamente
         por extranjeros, oriundos de paAses limAtrofes del Paraguay, a ser
         propietarios de tierras en una franja de 50 kilA^3metros.

         Parte del decreto que fue dado a conocer ayer por el Ejecutivo que
         reglamenta la ley de seguridad fronteriza.
         El decreto reglamentario otorga a los militares la potestad de
         verificar las condiciones de dominio de los inmuebles rurales, sean
         estos  propiedad de nacionales o extranjeros.

         El caso tiene relaciA^3n con la Ley 2532 que estA! vigente desde el
          2005, pero que nunca fue reglamentada por el poder administrador.
         Ayer fue dado a conocer el Decreto 7525 que, entre otras cosas,
         determina cuA!les serA!n las instituciones pA-oblicas encargadas y
         el mecanismo de aplicaciA^3n de la misma.

         Se debe tener en cuenta que la ley dispone la franja de 50
         kilA^3metros para extranjeros y algunas personas jurAdicas
         determinadas, citadas mA!s arriba. Asimismo, aclara que los mismos
         no pueden ser propietarios, condA^3minos o usufructuarios de
         inmuebles rurales.

         A manera de excepciA^3n, la misma ley determina que solo podrA!n
         tener tierras en esa franja fronteriza aquellos que cuenten con una
         autorizaciA^3n especial por decreto del Poder Ejecutivo, fundada en
         razones de interA(c)s pA-oblico, como aquellas actividades que
         generen ocupaciA^3n de mano de obra en la zona de seguridad
         fronteriza.

         La citada ley tambiA(c)n otorga potestad al Ministerio de Defensa
         para la realizaciA^3n ante el Servicio Nacional de Catastro de las
         diligencias necesarias para el establecimiento de dicha zona de
         seguridad.

         Nueva funciA^3n

         El decreto reglamentario indica que a los efectos de la
         realizaciA^3n del inventario de inmuebles rurales en la franja
         fronteriza, se otorga potestad al Ministerio de Defensa para
         individualizar las condiciones de dominio, condominio o usufructo de
         las tierras rurales, sean estas propiedad de connacionales o de
         extranjeros que se encuentren residiendo o explotando por medio del
         arrendamiento, dedicadas a actividades extractivas, industriales o
         fiduciarias, dentro de la mencionada zona de referencia.

         Aquellos extranjeros que quieran mantener tierras en la franja de
         dominio y cumplan con las exigencias establecidas en la ley, citadas
         anteriormente, deben presentar la solicitud correspondiente al
         Ministerio de Defensa Nacional.

         Existe un artAculo del decreto que dispone de manera clara que para
         el cumplimiento de esta misiA^3n encomendada al Ministerio de
         Defensa Nacional, esta lo llevarA! a cabo en estrecha cooperaciA^3n
         con las Fuerzas Armadas, a**quedando el personal militar plenamente
         autorizado para ejercer la funciA^3n indicada, en coordinaciA^3n con
         el Servicio Nacional de Catastro y el Instituto Nacional de
         Desarrollo Rural y de la Tierra (Indert)a**.

         La reglamentaciA^3n tambiA(c)n seA+-ala que el comandante de las
         Fuerzas Militares debe disponer que los comandantes de unidades
         ubicadas dentro de la franja de seguridad realicen periA^3dicas
          verificaciones e informen a la ComisiA^3n Interinstitucional Zona
         de Seguridad Fronteriza (CIZOSEF), respecto al cumplimiento de las
         disposiciones de la mencionada ley.

         A?Golpe a la propiedad?

         El decreto que reglamenta la ley que fija una franja de seguridad
         fronteriza dispone que los encargados del inventario o control
         pueden exigir los documentos de propiedad a las personas que
         detentan tierras en la zona de 50 kilA^3metros. El propietario u
         ocupante del inmueble debe presentar los papeles en un plazo no
         superior de 72 horas, caso contrario la ProcuradurAa iniciarA! las
         acciones pertinentes. Los mismos deben presentar tAtulos de
         propiedad, planos georreferenciados y boletas de pago del impuesto
         inmobiliario. Algunos referentes del campo creen que las exigencias
         son de cumplimiento imposible en el plazo fijado y temen que sea un
         paso mA!s del gobierno en el ataque a los productores rurales.

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 ADP
 Stratfor

 --
 Renato Whitaker
 LATAM Analyst
","2011-10-27 22:06:05",1,"2012-03-13 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/161338_re-latam-g3-s3-paraguay-brazil-govt-passes-measure-creating.html","allison.fedirka@stratfor.com","mailto:latam@stratfor.com","latam@stratfor.com",""
161628,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can build
   off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent
   people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on journalists
   or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the situation.  This has
   long term implications in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the
   consequences of their actions and they act without understanding the
   environment.  It was the same when they released information on the Sony
   Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a
   point. 

   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
     cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
     to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
     personal information on cartels as well as states a member had been
     kidnapped. I could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of
     the individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
     (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an
     individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
     Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

     Link: themeData
     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
     denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
     drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent
     video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels
     in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The
     hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
     otherwise face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming
     November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
     reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met.
     The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
     presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at
     online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing
     with any headaches from hackers before. 

     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
     Mexican cartels.
          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
     cartels

     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
     information on cartel members
          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
     cartels
          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
     identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
     realm of possibilities for
                 Anonymous
                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
     illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent
     world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of
     cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when
     sitting in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
     retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
     cartels.
          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
     cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
     forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
     victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
     identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
     cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
     working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor) before, however
     there has yet to be any consequences from this.
          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
     willing to go protect their operations.
             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
     before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
             o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
     discovering hackers within Mexico.

      

     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
       are several issues to address and fix here.

       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
       discussion:

            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
       can't gloss over that fact
            o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
       stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
       www.loszetas.com main page.
            o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
       could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
       accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
       businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
       Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
       instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
       they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
       because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
       kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
            o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
       realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
       damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
       technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
       certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
       information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
       Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
       accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
       dissemination.
            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
       back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by
       people who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker
       and a blogger.

       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

         -------- Original Message --------

          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
             From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
         Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
               To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

         you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
         more work

         You need to lay out:

         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
         unclear
         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
         therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
         breaches their systems or exposes their connections

         I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
         insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
         of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to
         assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
         protected fashion.

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         Link: themeData

         Trigger

         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
         Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out
         at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
         Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...?
         a person talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With
         the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
         the criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
         Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group
         demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
         consequences. The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal
         cartels and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
         cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
         experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no experience
         with the cartels. I do not believe for a second that the cartels
         have no experience with hackers.

          

         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
         day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
         releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back.
         Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how
         he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing
         revealing information on cartel members and operations are true,
         cartels will likely respond with violence against individuals
         revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials
         who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
         Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this means. You
         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel
         will be able to retaliate against Anonymous remains unanswered .
         However, cartels will continue their threats against any individual
         using online media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not
         talking about bloggers here. against the cartels.

          

         The Battle Space

         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
         realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
         the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
         cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
         tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses - although
         most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base
         consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any information
         connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers.
         (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of
         Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
         what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
         Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in revenue,
         but it does not really matter if you don't run operations on the
         web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far
         less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
         consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
         themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
         internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
         and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
         goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web
         of people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of
         serious IT capability. 

         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
         targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
         Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
         maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
         commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
         issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.
         Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and escalating
         brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing
         different types of threats. Cartels are always suffering at the
         hands of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each other,
         cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels
         wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
         have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
         bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok... but
         that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus
         on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume
         they have no cyber presence.

          

         Anonymous' Weapons

         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
         criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
         combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
         sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
         statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean
         so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a
         targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
         individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
         Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
         such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
         target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
         Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
         body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce
         cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
         really addressing the subheading

         As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
         disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous
         is capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
         cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals.
         Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive information is limited
         by what is available via the Internet. Government computers
         connected to the Internet should always be considered a possibility
         of an attack. However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the
         US governments computer networks, information available to Mexico's
         intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you
         trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

          

         Cartel's Defense

                     A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet
         to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by
         Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed
         by hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also
         this undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley
         internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that
         could very well give you some indication to the technical ability of
         the cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
         wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely
         are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole
         agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume
         (and we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
         disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in
         any region of the world. Personal information including locations is
         only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject
         of the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
         work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
         online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
         employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger things
         have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                     Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
         Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of
         computer science majors through personal threats has been reported
         in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels
         operate in the world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they
         will likely need the assistance of technical experts to help combat
         any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside
         of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable
         of identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
         experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers
         through investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
         (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not
         all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                     In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
         likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
         force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
         Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
         with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be
         targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
         public display of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
         online media into submission i'm not really seeing the online
         media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
         manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer hackers
         have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
         cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to
         be seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
         the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff and
         simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 17:22:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/161628_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
166004,"Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta conflict
	in context
","   Cool piece, comments and questions within

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Nate Hughes\" <nate.hughes@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 3:38:44 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

      Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

     On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a message to
     the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing with its
     campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
     governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

      

     The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
     proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It also
     urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct physical
     pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy Fawkes
     masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or physical world
     activities.  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic conspirator who was
     involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament in 1605, and who has
     become somewhat of an Anarchist icon in the United Kingdom. The British
     celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each year on Nov. 5, and the day has special
     meaning for the anarchists.  

      

     It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous set
     Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous associate
     who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The Anonymous
     associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign
     called Operation Paperstorm Also you might want to add the date he was
     picked up.

      

     The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,
     dubbed a**# OpCartela** no space. also, make it clear that this is a
     hashmark associated with twitter tagging (not looking to harp on it, but
     we need to show that we're aware of what that is with at least a
     parenthetical) is dangerous and noted that the collective would be
     assembling a hand-picked group of known and trusted associates to
     participate in a special task force to execute the operation. It asked
     supporters to use a software widget they had developed in order to
     anonymously pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to the task
     force, which will then distribute it. 

      

     With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not
     backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be
     useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous
     and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential implications.

      

     Context

      

     First it issignificant to understand that the epicenter of this event is
     Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place over the past few months in
     terms of Mexicoa**s cartel wars. The port city also serves as a critical
     transportation hub for the narcotics smuggling activities of the Los
     Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor has identified Veracruz as [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
     ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the Los
     Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

      

     One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
     cartela**s push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
     ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
     Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of over
     50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On Oct. 25,
     Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, a**El Bam
     Bam,a** who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that in
     Veracruz at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from both
     the Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

      

     Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective begin
     to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what Anonymous saw
     as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas cartel could really
     use a bit more about what led an online collective of activists into the
     mexican cartel war and why now? How does this fit with their modus
     operandi and why veracruz now and not any other place at any other time
     in the last year or two? we get at some of this below, but would get to
     the what brought anonymous into this right up front...

     , they launched Operation Paperstorm, in which activists associated with
     this is the leaderless resistance model, and we want to be clear early
     on that many of these 'associates' may be self-styled and self-appointed
     'members' of the group, not unlike ELF or ALF... the Anonymous
     collective distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz claiming the state
     government supports Los Zetas.  They conducted major leaflet
     distributions on Aug. 13, 20, and 29. They also released videos to the
     internet on the anonymous website? or on the website of the veracruz
     government? or on youtube? on Aug. 26 and 29, condemning the State of
     Veracruz. (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous video, Los Zetas allegedly
     kidnapped one of the activists involved in Operation Paperstorm.)

      

     Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting the
     stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and their bodies
     hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state.  Signs
     left with the bodies signified that Los Zetas had killed the pair
     because they had posted information pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs
     that specialize in reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the
     body of Marisol Macias Casteneda was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo
     Laredo.   Macias who worked for a local newspaper allegedly posted on
     cartel blogs using the nickname a**Laredo Girl.a** A message found with
     her body noted that she was killed by Los Zetas due to her online
     activities.

      

     Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for
     a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against the
     official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was killed by
     Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their attack on the
     Veracruz state website was because of the death of Laredo Girl. are we
     implying that this is an indication of the level of sophistication of
     anonymous activists' understanding of mexico and the cartels? I agree
     that a sentence should be added here about what it means that Anonymous
     chose to avenge Laredo Girl's death.

      

     It is also important to recognize that Anonymous was also unhappy with
     the State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to prosecute two
     individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug.
     25. The false reports alleged that a group of children had been abducted
     from a Veracruz school and the panic caused by the report allegedly
     resulted in some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed
     to the school to check o n their children. The so-called a**twitter
     terroristsa** were initially charged with offenses that could have
     carried a 30-year sentence. Anonymous, which has absolute freedom of
     speech on the internet as one of its foundational principles, took
     umbrage with this stiff penalty for the Twitter case a** especially
     because it stood in stark contrast with the impunity many cartel figures
     enjoy in Mexico. 

      

      

     Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous threatened
     Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous activist,
     Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the approaching
     Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
     ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

      

     Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a great
     deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very interesting
     response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast that it is a
     collective of people and not an organization.  As some
     Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
     accounts, suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a
     hoax and claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other activists
     suggested that the campaign should be suspended. Still other activists
     became more strident and determined in their posts, urging that the
     campaign continue. Since Anonymous is a collective, activists can pick
     and choose which actions they will participate in. that means in his
     case that those activists who want to refrain from the campaign will and
     those who want to participate will continue it.

      

     This will to continue was manifested on Oct. 29, the personal website of
     Gustavo RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the Mexican state
     of Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from Anonymous Mexico
     stating that Rosario was aZeta Do we know if that claim is true? If so,
     lets note it because it shows that Anonymous does have the ability to
     dig up factual \"dirt\" about the Veracruz govt. officials .  It was also
     reflected in the tone of the Oct. 31 message. Some activists associated
     with Anonymous clearly feel compelled to continue with the campaign due
     to the outpouring of public support they received in the wake of the
     media coverage. According to the Oct 31. Video statement:

      

     a**we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the
     voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the
     side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in
     critical moments like the one they currently live in.a**

      

     We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the
     campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

      

     Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
     better than Star Trek disagree...star wars all the way) 

      

     The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
     place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even
     degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them torturing,
     executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They also
     frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them.  As
     demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in September, Los
     Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary capability to trace
     online activity to people in thephysical world. It is not known if they
     employ their own team of dedicated cyber experts or if they rely on
     sources within the Mexican government a** although the most likely
     answer is probably a little of both. 

      

      

     In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
     following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK have
     arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly
     participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of
     activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted against the Turkish
     government for its efforts to establish a national internet filtering
     system.

      

     Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts lightly.
     Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that will damage
     Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this group has
     decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in some sort of
     response. The big question is: do theypossess the capability to
     effectively trace the organizers of the Anonymousaction against them?

      

     One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is intentionally
     amorphous a** it is also as transnational as the internet, and it would
     not be surprising if many of those chosen to participate in the
     operation against Los Zetas are located outside of Mexico in locations
     such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside the immediate reach of Los
     Zetas.

      

     But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way.  If
     Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an internet cafe,
     behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads, it will be very
     difficult to prove that they were not  associated with  Anonymous.  As
     Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is dangerous business.

      

      

     The Big Picture

      

     One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way in
     which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican middle and
     upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal cartels and
     theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in Mexico who are
     fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like
     Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen are being caught in
     a terrible bind. On one hand, they are receiving ever-increasing
     extortion demands from the cartels, while at the same time their
     business revenues are dwindling because people are afraid to go out due
     to the violence associated with those same cartels. This is forcing many
     businessmen out of business. It is also creating a great deal of
     frustration and resentment.

      

     At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries
     in the world for journalists, and many media companies practice heavy
     self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the September
     blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog del Narco, have also
     exhibited strong signs of fear inspired self-censorship.   This means
     that the legitimate press is not able to be of any real aid to the
     Mexican people. watch normative...

      

     Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
     well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymousa**
     original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some people to
     begin to talk about

     vigilante groups to fight the cartels a** though that has been attempted
     before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
     ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
     group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

      

     This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely
     on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for
     assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form of
     cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a safe way
     to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If this occurs,
     we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta controlled areas
     providing information to Anonymous, but citizens from all over the
     country.The only thing is that I don't see what Anonymous can really do
     to los Zetas.  I mean they would have the dirt on officials in the
     government who may be Zetas, but what will the Mexican government do
     about it? I don't see the US govt. being able to do anything about that
     either.  For example, what happened to the guy Gustavo Torres in
     response to the claim by Anonymous.

      

     Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in an
     effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also very
     well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information on Los
     Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more reason for
     Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.

      
     one interesting angle is that anonymous depends on anonymity -- and
     particularly novice self-styled, self-appointed members are not
     necessarily in a position to adequately guard their own autonomy

     Also, has autonomous struck out at entities as violent and capable as
     the cartels before? or is this a new move (meaning that even the
     experienced people have no practical experience in making judgments
     about dangers to individuals and the life-and-death consequences of
     dealing with the cartels...)

     If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
     Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
     releasing sensitive information what kind of sensitive information? to
     the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration in an attempt to damage Los
     Zetas. This would be an incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous
     has viewed itself as an opponent of the U.S. government in cases like
     Wikileaks.  do we have any indication that they would do this rather
     than just making it public? What to be careful if this is how we are
     going to conclude...
","2011-11-01 22:32:58",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/166004_re-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs-zeta.html","ashley.harrison@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
166209,"Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta conflict in
	context
","   Yes, that I why I mentioned the bit about Los Z picking up random people
   from an internet cafA(c) and behead them.  
   From: Ben West <ben.west@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Date: Tue, 1 Nov 2011 17:46:55 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict in context
   Just to build on my last comment - and I think this should be included in
   the piece - the cartels could just as easily try to intimidate would be
   sources ratting to anonymous as intimidate bloggers. Imagine if, after
   anonymous publishes a few juicy tidbits, Zetas hang a few headless bodies
   from a bridge accusing them of contributing to anonymous? True or not,
   cartels can intimidate both sides of the information flow and the sources
   may be more vulnerable than anonymous themselves.

   Still think a discussion of Anonymous and source handling would be pretty
   cool.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Ben West\" <ben.west@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 5:42:42 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 4:45:43 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

      Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

     On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a message to
     the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing with its
     campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
     governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

      

     The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
     proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It also
     urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct physical
     pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy Fawkes
     masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or physical world
     activities.[Is this universally or just in Mexico?  The former points to
     problems with LE cracking down on them, the latter specifically to
     cartel retribution]  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic conspirator who was
     involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament in 1605, and who has
     become somewhat of an Anarchist icon in the United Kingdom. The British
     celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each year on Nov. 5, and the day has special
     meaning for the anarchists.  

      

     It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous set
     Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous associate
     who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The Anonymous
     associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign
     called Operation Paperstorm.

      

     The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,
     dubbed \"# OpCartel\" is dangerous and noted that the collective would be
     assembling a hand-picked group of known and trusted associates to
     participate in a special task force to execute the operation.[hahahaha,
     this says something about leadership] It asked supporters to use a
     software widget[WC. is this the correct term?] they had developed in
     order to anonymously pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to
     the task force, which will then distribute it. 

      

     With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not
     backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be
     useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous
     and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential implications.

      

     Context

      

     First it issignificant to understand that the physical? geographic?
     epicenter of this event is Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place
     over the past few months in terms of Mexico's cartel wars. The port city
     also serves as a critical transportation hub for the narcotics smuggling
     activities of the Los Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor has
     identified Veracruz as [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
     ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the Los
     Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

      

     One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa cartel's
     push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
     ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
     Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of over
     50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On Oct. 25,
     Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, \"El Bam Bam,\"
     who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that in Veracruz
     at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from both the
     Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

      

     Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective begin
     to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what Anonymous saw
     as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas cartel, they launched
     Operation Paperstorm, in which activists who associated themselves with
     the Anonymous collective distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz
     claiming the state government supports Los Zetas.  They conducted major
     leaflet distributions on Aug. 13, 20, and 29. They also released videos
     to the internet on Aug. 26 and 29, condemning the State of Veracruz.
     (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous video, Los Zetas allegedly kidnapped
     one of the activists involved in Operation Paperstorm.)

      

     Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting the
     stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and their bodies
     hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state.  Signs
     left with the bodies signified that Los Zetas had killed the pair
     because they had posted information pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs
     that specialize in reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the
     body of Marisol Macias Casteneda was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo
     Laredo.   Macias who worked for a local newspaper allegedly posted on
     cartel blogs using the nickname \"Laredo Girl.\" A message found with her
     body noted that she was killed by Los Zetas due to her online
     activities.

      

     Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for
     a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against the
     official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was killed by
     Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their attack on the
     Veracruz state website was because of the death of Laredo Girl. [can you
     attempt to explain why they linked it with veracruz?]

      

     It is also important to recognize that some members of Anonymous [again
     I hate referring to Anonymous as one entity] was also unhappy with the
     State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to prosecute two
     individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug.
     25. The false reports alleged that a group of children had been abducted
     from a Veracruz school and the panic caused by the report allegedly
     resulted in some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed
     to the school to check o n their children. The so-called \"twitter
     terrorists\" were initially charged with offenses that could have carried
     a 30-year sentence. Those involved in this campaign from Anonymous,
     which claims absolute freedom of speech on the internet as one of its
     foundational principles, took umbrage with this stiff penalty for the
     Twitter case - especially because it stood in stark contrast with the
     impunity many cartel figures enjoy in Mexico. 

      

      

     Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous threatened
     Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous activist,
     Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the approaching
     Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
     ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

      

     Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a great
     deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very interesting
     response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast that it is a
     collective of people and not an organization.  As some
     Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
     accounts[does this mean accounts of people in support of the attack?],
     suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a hoax and
     claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other activists suggested
     that the campaign should be suspended. Still other activists became more
     strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign
     continue. Since Anonymous is a collective, activists can pick and choose
     which actions they will participate in. that means in his case that
     those activists who want to refrain from the campaign will and those who
     want to participate will continue it.  [i see how this paragraph fits
     into your analysis the way you have it written, but I think it might go
     better at the front.  You could use the 'anonymous discussion' as a
     trigger, explain it's \"collective\" qualities and then go into the rest
     of the analysis.  This way I feel much less bad about how we refer to
     'anonymous']

      

     This will to continue was manifested[something is off in the previous
     part of the sentence] on Oct. 29, the personal website of Gustavo
     RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the Mexican state of
     Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from Anonymous Mexico
     stating that Rosario was aZeta.  It was also reflected in the tone of
     the Oct. 31 message. Some activists associated with Anonymous clearly
     feel compelled to continue with the campaign due to the outpouring[WC. 
     Did they really get an outpouring? seemed like they got a lot of
     criticism and also support for going against the cartels] of public
     support they received in the wake of the media coverage. According to
     the Oct 31. Video statement: (did we see specific examples of \"public
     support\" or are we just going off of the youtube statement CLAIMING that
     they got lots of support?)

      

     \"we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the
     voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the
     side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in
     critical moments like the one they currently live in.\"

      

     We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the
     campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

      

     Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
     better than Star Trek. What's Star Trek?) 

      

     The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
     place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even
     degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them torturing,
     executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They also
     frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them.  As
     demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in September, Los
     Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary capability to trace
     online activity to people in thephysical world. It is not known if they
     employ their own team of dedicated cyber experts or if they rely on
     sources within the Mexican government - although the most likely answer
     is probably a little of both.  [what about just old-fashioned human
     intelligence?  Many people discuss blogger identities both online and
     offline, something they could've picked up without network-based
     forensics.  'My brother blogs about...' and on from there.  Or by
     tracing the information the blogger had in the real world, and
     eventually getting back to the blogger]

   Tristan was talking about how the cartels were even kidnapping computer
   science students and forcing them to track anonymous down. Need to check
   with him on specifics though

      

      

     In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
     following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK have
     arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly
     participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of
     activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted against the Turkish
     government for its efforts to establish a national internet filtering
     system. [Need something to make a point here, maybe something like:] 
     The reality is that there is no such thing as anonymity, on the internet
     or otherwise.  Any action leaves some trail, whether digitial or
     physical.  In the same way that hackers from Anonymous develop exploits
     to access confidential information, law enforcement agencies and even
     cartels could get around encryption, examine patterns of activity and
     investigate leads that in the end identify a real person behind a
     computer. 

      

     Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts lightly.
     Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that will damage
     Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this group has
     decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in some sort of
     response. The big question is: do theypossess the capability to
     effectively trace the organizers of the Anonymousaction against them?

      

     One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is intentionally
     amorphous - it is also as transnational as the internet, and it would
     not be surprising if many of those chosen to participate in the
     operation against Los Zetas are located outside of Mexico in locations
     such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside the immediate reach of Los
     Zetas.(the US is not out of reach, at least not on the border:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111005-mexico-security-memo-defining-cross-border-violence)

      

     But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way.  If
     Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an internet cafe,
     behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads, it will be very
     difficult to prove that they were not  associated with  Anonymous.  As
     Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is dangerous business.(it
     would certainly be within the cartel's capacity to kill innocents and
     blame anonymous in the attempt to intimidate them into stopping their
     activity)

      

      

     The Big Picture

      

     One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way in
     which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican middle and
     upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal cartels and
     theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in Mexico who are
     fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like
     Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen are being caught in
     a terrible bind. On one hand, they are receiving ever-increasing
     extortion demands from the cartels, while at the same time their
     business revenues are dwindling because people are afraid to go out due
     to the violence associated with those same cartels. This is forcing many
     businessmen[enterprises?] out of business. It is also creating a great
     deal of frustration and resentment.

      

     At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries
     in the world for journalists, and many media organizations practice
     heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the
     September blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog del Narco,
     have also exhibited strong signs of fear inspired self-censorship.  
     This means that the legitimate press is not able to be of any real aid
     to the Mexican people.

      

     Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
     well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymous'
     original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some people to
     begin to talk about

     vigilante groups to fight the cartels - though that has been attempted
     before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
     ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
     group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

      

     This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely
     on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for
     assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form of
     cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a perceived
     safe way to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If this
     occurs, we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta controlled
     areas providing information to Anonymous, but citizens from all over the
     country.

      

     Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in an
     effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also very
     well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information on Los
     Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more reason for
     Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.

      

     If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
     Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
     releasing sensitive information to the U.S. Drug Enforcement
     Administration in an attempt to damage Los Zetas. This would be an
     incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous has viewed itself as an
     opponent of the U.S. government in cases like Wikileaks. (Anonymous has
     made it clear that the value they provide is a safe and private medium
     through which to pass this damning information. Their stated priority is
     to publicize information that people send to them. But, do they have a
     way to protect their sources? They likely don't have much collective
     experience in source handling. I imagine a lot of the details they get
     could put their sources in serious trouble. If I were a semi-smart
     Mexican who knew some super detailed information on the cartels, I would
     think long and hard before handing it over to these guys. This may be a
     separate piece entirely, but I think we need a discussion on source
     handling and how good hackers don't necessarily make good intelligence
     agents.)

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   STRATFOR

   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967

   www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-02 01:50:05",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/166209_re-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs-zeta.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
166280,"[CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
   cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
   to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing personal
   information on cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I
   could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
   being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
   Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers
   in Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
   speculation.

   Link: themeData
   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
   denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
   drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
   criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
   addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent video
   release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
   Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
   politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
   consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
   demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
   conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a unique
   threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at online bloggers,
   but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
   from hackers before. 

   What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
        o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
   Mexican cartels.
        o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
        o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
   cartels

   While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
        o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
   information on cartel members
        o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
   cartels
        o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
   identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
   realm of possibilities for
               Anonymous
               o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit
   online activity (child pornography rings)

   Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent world
   of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of cartel
   activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
   in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
   retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
   cartels.
        o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will cost
   lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are forced
   to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often victims of
   extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
   individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel                  
   operations. Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero
   & Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any consequences
   from this.
        o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
   willing to go protect their operations.
           o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
           o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
   before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
           o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of discovering
   hackers within Mexico.

    

   On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there are
     several issues to address and fix here.

     These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the discussion:

          o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
     can't gloss over that fact
          o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
     stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
     www.loszetas.com main page.
          o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
     could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
     accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
     identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
     businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
     Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
     instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
     they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
     because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
     kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
          o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
     realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
     damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
     technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
     certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
     information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
     internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
     Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
     accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
     dissemination.
          o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace back
     attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by people
     who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker and a
     blogger.

     On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

       wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

       -------- Original Message --------

        Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
           Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
           From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
       Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
             To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

       you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
       more work

       You need to lay out:

       a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
       unclear
       b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and therefore
       their vulnerabilities and capabilities
       c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
       d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
       breaches their systems or exposes their connections

       I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable insight
       that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels of
       sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of cyber
       currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume
       that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a protected
       fashion.

       Karen Hooper
       Latin America Analyst
       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
       c: 512.750.7234
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

       On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       Link: themeData

       Trigger

       Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers. Anonymous,
       a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out at drug
       cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
       criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...? a person
       talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most
       recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
       criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican?
       American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who
       collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
       release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. The
       potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
       presents an unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
       different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
       Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
       believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do not
       believe for a second that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

        

       In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
       day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
       releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up front.
       Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
       enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how he was
       abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
       information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels will
       likely respond with violence against individuals revealed as opposing
       cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely
       that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will
       force the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
       don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
       Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
       against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
       their threats against any individual using online media WC.... you
       mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here. against
       the cartels.

        

       The Battle Space

       Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate realities
       from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of the computer
       networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical boundaries. All
       personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
       not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in the real
       world. They have names and addresses - although most of them are
       likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their
       technical capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
       Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's
       of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
       be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous has done are
       DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big company with a
       website that brings in revenue, but it does not really matter if you
       don't run operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
       e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than the
       jihadists.)

       Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
       consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
       themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
       internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything and
       everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme goes,
       anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
       people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious
       IT capability. 

       The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
       targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

       The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
       Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to maximize
       profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar commerce. Yes.....
       but they use the internet to launder money and issue commands. We know
       that Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to assume that
       Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by
       large amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like
       Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of threats.
       Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
       violence. While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
       Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in the
       flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media outlets.
       Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to cover details of
       their operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
       discussion. You need to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the
       cartels. Don't just assume they have no cyber presence.

        

       Anonymous' Weapons

       Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
       criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to combat
       cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating sensitive
       information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via
       social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and that
       we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to cartels, they
       cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a targeted information
       operations campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
       overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream
       media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
       operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
       bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed with a
       dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a blogger. The
       message threatened any users who denounce cartels on blogging
       websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not really addressing the
       subheading

       As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
       disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous is
       capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
       releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican cartels,
       Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals. Anonymous's ability
       to disseminate sensitive information is limited by what is available
       via the Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
       should always be considered a possibility of an attack. However, as
       with the compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
       networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence collection
       may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This
       isn't clear at all

        

       Cartel's Defense

                   A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet to
       see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by Los
       Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
       hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
       undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley internet
       based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How
       did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well
       give you some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
       Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
       cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed for
       them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies dedicated to
       fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
       indicating that) they are working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers
       threatening cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
       information including locations is only available if a hacker chooses
       to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
       figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels are only
       capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can physically
       reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of their own under their
       payroll? Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                   Cartels have been known to coerce the services of Mexican
       citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of computer
       science majors through personal threats has been reported in the past
       where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
       world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will likely need
       the assistance of technical experts to help combat any threat by
       computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has
       been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying
       any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
       such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources than
       cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations. A) How do
       you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???)
       B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
       track down

                   In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
       likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
       force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
       Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
       with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
       and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
       of violence will likely continue to be used to scare online media into
       submission i'm not really seeing the online media-international
       hacking group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
       inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely encountered
       before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the
       confidence of Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able
       to seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos
       could call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any
       inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 16:32:57",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/166280_-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","tristan.reed@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
166779,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   Good point. 
   In terrorist terms they are more like grassroots people than AQ core. 
   From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:11:05 -0500
   To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
   Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They are
   a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
   online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do this
   in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people joining
   Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or something
   like that. 

   Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

   On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
     these in the US?
      What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
     I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
     whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
     because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
     revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
     understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
     expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
     coercion.

     Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
     cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of el
     chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication as a
     tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable intelligence,
     the government will use it against the cartels. That's a physical
     threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify that
     Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact to the
     cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival cartels or
     the GoM. They may release information on a given politician being linked
     to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the politician will feel
     an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a link, doesn't make it
     true). It would be up to others to take action.  I think the way you
     have it worded in the above sentence is good.  Follow with a sentence
     explaining the rest of it, because readers will have the same question
     Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat to cartels would come in
     what information anonymous could expose that is useful to their enemies'

     Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
     activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to conduct
     significant logistics and business online. We don't know how much, but
     we do know they will have some points of operational vulnerability I
     have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't have specific
     examples which could be used in assessing their vulnerability online.

     by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
     arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
     should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
     politicians as colluding.
     On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

       Karen Hooper
       Latin America Analyst
       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
       c: 512.750.7234
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
       Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
       possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
       Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using the
       banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
       cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
       find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
       kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
       Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting
       flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the Operation
       Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is good and
       will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a quick
       explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding something in
       the explaining the flyers will work]

       Link: themeData
       Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
       denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate websites,
       lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
       denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a
       masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With
       the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
       the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities
       of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude with
       criminal cartels do they specify whether or not these are all in
       Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
       group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
       face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
       was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
       their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
       potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
       presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational criminal
       organization, it's not really unique.  Many such organizations do
       their crimes online, and have been hacked in response--like the
       nigerian princess scams. I think you should just say it's a unique
       threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out at online bloggers,
       but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
       from hackers before. 

       What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
            o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat
       to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to
       the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using
       publication as a tool to force government action. If you reveal
       actionable intelligence, the government will use it against the
       cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
            o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
       media
            o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
       at cartels

       While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
       threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

               -The threat is in the information they can expose that may be
   of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or other
   cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but i could
   imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the public).

            o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
       identifiable information on cartel members 
            o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
       cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
       section/paragraph]
            o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
       identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
       the realm of possibilities for
                   Anonymous
                   o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
       illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are
       known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't
       know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
       operational vulnerability

      -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
   (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
   cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
   replaceable. 
               -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents have
   access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any sort of
   existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

       Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
       world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that some
       of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to the
       violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is there
       are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems very
       possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have joined
       up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of cartel
       activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other countries may
       act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but this may
       blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even know the
       impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the part below and above is
       written rather normatively.  We need to take that out.  just state the
       facts]
            o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
       cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
       forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
       victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
       identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
       cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
       working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor) before, however
       there has yet to be any consequences from this. by \"no consequences\"
       what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and
       that happens all the time.
            o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
       willing to go protect their operations.
               o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
               o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
       community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
       them.
               o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
       discovering hackers within Mexico.
       need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply publishing
       tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the same camp as
       the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that their damage
       will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can do--limited.  But
       maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are no longer
       challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

        

       On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

         Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
         are several issues to address and fix here.

         These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
         discussion:

              o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
         we can't gloss over that fact
              o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
         between stealing bank records from government computers and
         overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
              o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
         information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
         kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
         talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
         politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
         going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
         killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
         operational details, because they acted as informants, because they
         exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied the
         cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
         to the cartels themselves?
              o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
         realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
         damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
         technical ability by a very small number of its members to
         infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information. Now
         what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that is
         connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
         information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
         of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
         consequences of dissemination.
              o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
         back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done
         by people who may not understand the difference between an anon
         hacker and a blogger.

         On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

           wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

           -------- Original Message --------

            Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
               Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
               From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
           Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                 To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

           you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
           lot more work

           You need to lay out:

           a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
           is unclear
           b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
           therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
           c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
           d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
           who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

           I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
           insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
           of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
           cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason
           to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
           protected fashion.

           Karen Hooper
           Latin America Analyst
           o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
           c: 512.750.7234
           STRATFOR
           www.stratfor.com
           On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

           On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Link: themeData

           Trigger

           Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
           depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
           exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
           makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
           releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
           politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
           The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
           member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
           between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
           unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
           operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
           Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
           believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
           not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience with
           hackers.

            

           In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as
           a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
           releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
           front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit
           back. Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and
           why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of
           possessing revealing information on cartel members and operations
           are true, cartels will likely respond with violence against
           individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean
           Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of
           GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take
           action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand
           what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
           effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against Anonymous
           remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue their threats
           against any individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
           or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here. against the
           cartels.

            

           The Battle Space

           Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
           realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
           the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
           boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
           cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
           tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses -
           although most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
           base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any
           information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by
           hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the
           midst of Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember
           that most of what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if
           you are Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
           revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run operations
           on the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are
           also far less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

           Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
           consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
           themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
           internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
           and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
           goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large
           web of people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort
           of serious IT capability. 

           The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
           from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

           The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
           Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
           maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
           commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
           issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
           is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
           capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
           and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
           experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
           always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence. While
           battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement
           Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of
           drugs and money, cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering
           journalists and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
           operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
           discussion. You need to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of
           the cartels. Don't just assume they have no cyber presence.

            

           Anonymous' Weapons

           Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
           criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
           combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
           sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
           statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you
           mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their
           video to cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance
           of a targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
           individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
           Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
           such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
           target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by
           Los Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
           the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
           denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here,
           and it's not really addressing the subheading

           As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
           disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
           Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
           release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
           Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
           individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
           information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
           Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
           considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
           compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer networks,
           information available to Mexico's intelligence collection may not
           be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
           clear at all

            

           Cartel's Defense

                       A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
           yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
           member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
           threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
           response? also this undermines your statements above about how
           Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
           vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
           Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you some
           indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As Anonymous
           exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the cartels
           will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed for them
           Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies dedicated to
           fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good
           intel indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
           cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any region
           of the world. Personal information including locations is only
           available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject of
           the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
           work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
           online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
           employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger
           things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                       Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
           Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help
           of computer science majors through personal threats has been
           reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since
           cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
           trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
           experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
           identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
           unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers operating
           outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such as the FBi,
           with far more technical experience and resources than cartels,
           struggle to find hackers through investigations. A) How do you
           know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???)
           B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult
           to track down

                       In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
           likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
           force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
           Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?. 
           Individuals with alleged connections to hacker communities will
           likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco
           banners and public display of violence will likely continue to be
           used to scare online media into submission i'm not really seeing
           the online media-international hacking group connection here.  The
           cruel manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
           hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether
           the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous
           will remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
           capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the
           collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience
           that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 20:33:26",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/166779_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
167090,"Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta conflict
	in context
","     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 4:45:43 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

      Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

     On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a message to
     the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing with its
     campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
     governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

      

     The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
     proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It also
     urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct physical
     pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy Fawkes
     masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or physical world
     activities.[Is this universally or just in Mexico?  The former points to
     problems with LE cracking down on them, the latter specifically to
     cartel retribution]  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic conspirator who was
     involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament in 1605, and who has
     become somewhat of an Anarchist icon in the United Kingdom. The British
     celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each year on Nov. 5, and the day has special
     meaning for the anarchists.  

      

     It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous set
     Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous associate
     who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The Anonymous
     associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign
     called Operation Paperstorm.

      

     The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,
     dubbed a**# OpCartela** is dangerous and noted that the collective would
     be assembling a hand-picked group of known and trusted associates to
     participate in a special task force to execute the operation.[hahahaha,
     this says something about leadership] It asked supporters to use a
     software widget[WC. is this the correct term?] they had developed in
     order to anonymously pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to
     the task force, which will then distribute it. 

      

     With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not
     backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be
     useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous
     and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential implications.

      

     Context

      

     First it issignificant to understand that the physical? geographic?
     epicenter of this event is Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place
     over the past few months in terms of Mexicoa**s cartel wars. The port
     city also serves as a critical transportation hub for the narcotics
     smuggling activities of the Los Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor
     has identified Veracruz as [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
     ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the Los
     Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

      

     One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
     cartela**s push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
     ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
     Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of over
     50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On Oct. 25,
     Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, a**El Bam
     Bam,a** who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that in
     Veracruz at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from both
     the Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

      

     Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective begin
     to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what Anonymous saw
     as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas cartel, they launched
     Operation Paperstorm, in which activists who associated themselves with
     the Anonymous collective distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz
     claiming the state government supports Los Zetas.  They conducted major
     leaflet distributions on Aug. 13, 20, and 29. They also released videos
     to the internet on Aug. 26 and 29, condemning the State of Veracruz.
     (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous video, Los Zetas allegedly kidnapped
     one of the activists involved in Operation Paperstorm.)

      

     Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting the
     stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and their bodies
     hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state.  Signs
     left with the bodies signified that Los Zetas had killed the pair
     because they had posted information pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs
     that specialize in reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the
     body of Marisol Macias Casteneda was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo
     Laredo.   Macias who worked for a local newspaper allegedly posted on
     cartel blogs using the nickname a**Laredo Girl.a** A message found with
     her body noted that she was killed by Los Zetas due to her online
     activities.

      

     Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for
     a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against the
     official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was killed by
     Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their attack on the
     Veracruz state website was because of the death of Laredo Girl. [can you
     attempt to explain why they linked it with veracruz?]

      

     It is also important to recognize that some members of Anonymous [again
     I hate referring to Anonymous as one entity] was also unhappy with the
     State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to prosecute two
     individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug.
     25. The false reports alleged that a group of children had been abducted
     from a Veracruz school and the panic caused by the report allegedly
     resulted in some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed
     to the school to check o n their children. The so-called a**twitter
     terroristsa** were initially charged with offenses that could have
     carried a 30-year sentence. Those involved in this campaign from
     Anonymous, which claims absolute freedom of speech on the internet as
     one of its foundational principles, took umbrage with this stiff penalty
     for the Twitter case a** especially because it stood in stark contrast
     with the impunity many cartel figures enjoy in Mexico. 

      

      

     Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous threatened
     Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous activist,
     Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the approaching
     Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
     ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

      

     Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a great
     deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very interesting
     response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast that it is a
     collective of people and not an organization.  As some
     Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
     accounts[does this mean accounts of people in support of the attack?],
     suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a hoax and
     claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other activists suggested
     that the campaign should be suspended. Still other activists became more
     strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign
     continue. Since Anonymous is a collective, activists can pick and choose
     which actions they will participate in. that means in his case that
     those activists who want to refrain from the campaign will and those who
     want to participate will continue it.  [i see how this paragraph fits
     into your analysis the way you have it written, but I think it might go
     better at the front.  You could use the 'anonymous discussion' as a
     trigger, explain it's \"collective\" qualities and then go into the rest
     of the analysis.  This way I feel much less bad about how we refer to
     'anonymous']

      

     This will to continue was manifested[something is off in the previous
     part of the sentence] on Oct. 29, the personal website of Gustavo
     RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the Mexican state of
     Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from Anonymous Mexico
     stating that Rosario was aZeta.  It was also reflected in the tone of
     the Oct. 31 message. Some activists associated with Anonymous clearly
     feel compelled to continue with the campaign due to the outpouring[WC. 
     Did they really get an outpouring? seemed like they got a lot of
     criticism and also support for going against the cartels] of public
     support they received in the wake of the media coverage. According to
     the Oct 31. Video statement: (did we see specific examples of \"public
     support\" or are we just going off of the youtube statement CLAIMING that
     they got lots of support?)

      

     a**we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the
     voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the
     side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in
     critical moments like the one they currently live in.a**

      

     We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the
     campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

      

     Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
     better than Star Trek. What's Star Trek?) 

      

     The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
     place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even
     degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them torturing,
     executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They also
     frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them.  As
     demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in September, Los
     Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary capability to trace
     online activity to people in thephysical world. It is not known if they
     employ their own team of dedicated cyber experts or if they rely on
     sources within the Mexican government a** although the most likely
     answer is probably a little of both.  [what about just old-fashioned
     human intelligence?  Many people discuss blogger identities both online
     and offline, something they could've picked up without network-based
     forensics.  'My brother blogs about...' and on from there.  Or by
     tracing the information the blogger had in the real world, and
     eventually getting back to the blogger]

   Tristan was talking about how the cartels were even kidnapping computer
   science students and forcing them to track anonymous down. Need to check
   with him on specifics though

      

      

     In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
     following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK have
     arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly
     participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of
     activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted against the Turkish
     government for its efforts to establish a national internet filtering
     system. [Need something to make a point here, maybe something like:] 
     The reality is that there is no such thing as anonymity, on the internet
     or otherwise.  Any action leaves some trail, whether digitial or
     physical.  In the same way that hackers from Anonymous develop exploits
     to access confidential information, law enforcement agencies and even
     cartels could get around encryption, examine patterns of activity and
     investigate leads that in the end identify a real person behind a
     computer. 

      

     Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts lightly.
     Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that will damage
     Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this group has
     decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in some sort of
     response. The big question is: do theypossess the capability to
     effectively trace the organizers of the Anonymousaction against them?

      

     One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is intentionally
     amorphous a** it is also as transnational as the internet, and it would
     not be surprising if many of those chosen to participate in the
     operation against Los Zetas are located outside of Mexico in locations
     such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside the immediate reach of Los
     Zetas.(the US is not out of reach, at least not on the border:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111005-mexico-security-memo-defining-cross-border-violence)

      

     But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way.  If
     Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an internet cafe,
     behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads, it will be very
     difficult to prove that they were not  associated with  Anonymous.  As
     Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is dangerous business.(it
     would certainly be within the cartel's capacity to kill innocents and
     blame anonymous in the attempt to intimidate them into stopping their
     activity)

      

      

     The Big Picture

      

     One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way in
     which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican middle and
     upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal cartels and
     theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in Mexico who are
     fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like
     Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen are being caught in
     a terrible bind. On one hand, they are receiving ever-increasing
     extortion demands from the cartels, while at the same time their
     business revenues are dwindling because people are afraid to go out due
     to the violence associated with those same cartels. This is forcing many
     businessmen[enterprises?] out of business. It is also creating a great
     deal of frustration and resentment.

      

     At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries
     in the world for journalists, and many media organizations practice
     heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the
     September blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog del Narco,
     have also exhibited strong signs of fear inspired self-censorship.  
     This means that the legitimate press is not able to be of any real aid
     to the Mexican people.

      

     Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
     well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymousa**
     original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some people to
     begin to talk about

     vigilante groups to fight the cartels a** though that has been attempted
     before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
     ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
     group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

      

     This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely
     on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for
     assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form of
     cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a perceived
     safe way to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If this
     occurs, we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta controlled
     areas providing information to Anonymous, but citizens from all over the
     country.

      

     Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in an
     effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also very
     well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information on Los
     Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more reason for
     Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.

      

     If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
     Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
     releasing sensitive information to the U.S. Drug Enforcement
     Administration in an attempt to damage Los Zetas. This would be an
     incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous has viewed itself as an
     opponent of the U.S. government in cases like Wikileaks. (Anonymous has
     made it clear that the value they provide is a safe and private medium
     through which to pass this damning information. Their stated priority is
     to publicize information that people send to them. But, do they have a
     way to protect their sources? They likely don't have much collective
     experience in source handling. I imagine a lot of the details they get
     could put their sources in serious trouble. If I were a semi-smart
     Mexican who knew some super detailed information on the cartels, I would
     think long and hard before handing it over to these guys. This may be a
     separate piece entirely, but I think we need a discussion on source
     handling and how good hackers don't necessarily make good intelligence
     agents.)

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   STRATFOR

   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967

   www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-01 23:42:42",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/167090_re-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs-zeta.html","ben.west@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
167291,"[alpha] INSIGHT - CT/CYBER - cyber and internet governance issues -
	EU105
","   LG: CT/Nate, let me know if you have questions I can pass along to my
   source. Also, I can set up a call between a few of us. He mainly deals in
   governance over cyber issues, but has been deep on the security stuff in
   past

   CODE: EU105
   PUBLICATION: yes&#8232;
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Washington
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  UCAAN Chief (also advises EU and Bulgaria on IT)
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B&#8232;
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2&#8232;
   DISSEMINATION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

 Lauren, hi.
 Hope you are doing great!
 How's life?
 See attached our October issue, and below an interesting interview. If
 there's some momentum at Stratfor for those issues, would be happy to
 talk to you and/or interested parties.

 best,


 \"The United States still dominate the Internet situation\", says former
 Russian Intelligence Service general (and yes, he speaks in English,
 as one can hear from the audio of the interview, published on the url
 below). No need to click on the link, as the \"Voice of Russia\" are
 probably monitoring traffic, and where it comes from, so here's the
 whole interview:

 http://english.ruvr.ru/2011/10/30/59533092.html

 Interview with Gennady Yevstafyev, retired Lieutenant-General of
 Russian Intelligence Service.

 This week Cyber Czar of the United States Mr. Cross, he is coming to
 discuss the problems, he is coming not at the very official style,
 because in Russia there are words that Cybersecurity is threatened and
 Digital Diplomacy of the United States is a new method of
 neocolonialism and instrument of destabilization of hostile regimes
 and so on. These are exactly the words which are used in Russia.

 /But Mr. Yevsafyev do you think we could actually explain in full
 details to our listeners the essence of Cyber Diplomacy or Digital
 Diplomacy, however you call it./

 We have, first of all, to note that the cyber problem is very closely
 connected with Internet and the Internet was established in 1998,
 because at that time there was a decision to start The Internet
 Corporation for very innocent things, for assigned names and numbers,
 abbreviation is ICANN. It is based on the multi-stakeholder model, but
 whatever you say the whole thing belongs to the United States. They
 were very much ahead of technological development in cyberspace and
 they still dominate the Internet situation. Usually the problems are
 discussed in the so called Internet Government's Forums, abbreviation
 is IGF, but with the course of time it came out that it is a very
 multi-dimensional problem and Cyberspace Security is multi-sided
 because Cyberspace Security is, first of all, the security of
 day-to-day life of the international community, because invention of
 Internet and its establishment is a tremendous breakthrough in the
 usual man's life, you everything through the Internet, now. And it is
 very helpful in many ways in economic and social and all this kind of
 things. But with the course of time it came out that Internet is not
 that innocent, it could be used against the so called hostile regimes.
 We have seen this number of times.

 /But could you give us an example?/

 For example, only this year, which was very rich with all kinds of
 global cyber space manifestations, you all remember that there was a
 story of a so called Stuxnet Cyber Worm, which was introduced and
 penetrated the Iranian Nuclear Organization and to a logic stand has
 really destroyed, not physically, but, you know, it is a virtual
 thing, it destroyed the operation of many elements of Iranian Nuclear
 Industry.

 /But I've heard some analysts say that digital information
 technologies have also been used in the Balkans crisis, but is that
 truly so?/

 It has been also established, you remember when there was Balkan
 crisis, and Balkan crisis was closely connected with the activity of
 all kind of extreme Islamist movements and everybody was happy that in
 the long run the population in Kosovo and some other areas, dominated
 by Islamic religion, was introduced into the modern age through
 Internet, but then Special Services found out that numerous Internet
 cafes, which were established by hundreds of mosques around the
 Balkan-Muslim areas were, in fact, the centers through which the
 mobilization of extremist terrorist activity was arranged and after
 thorough inner investigations in the beginning of this century it was
 variably established that many of the would be conspirators and
 terrorist exchange the ideas through Internet and arrange their
 meetings and operations using the Internet facilities. So, it is not
 that simple, but nowadays we are very much in discussion of, for
 example, cyberspace attacks on hostile regimes.

 /Hostile regimes, so are we talking about direct Government
 involvement and new Foreign Policy too?/

 I'm quite sure that with certain extent, though the Americans deny
 this, but their General the Head of African Command said he was not
 rejected for any kind of weapons he asked for. African Command was
 responsible for handling of Libya's situation. Though Americans are
 trying to say that they were not using the cyberspace for attacking,
 for example, Libyan enter Aircrafts System, but funny enough the
 system, which was not a sophisticated system, but nevertheless, it
 stopped to operate.

 /You know, it is interesting, because I've been listening to Mr.
 Cross's lecture on the new opportunities, presented by the use of
 digital technologies and answering a question he reminded us of Robert
 Gates words that Cyberspace has become a new theatre of warfare, but
 then he also said that he didn't believe in Twitter Revolution and of
 course he never spoke of cyber warfare, you know./

 The problem is becoming more and more serious. Sometime ago, before
 the whole Arab Spring started the United States have distributed one
 100 000 computers free for local population in Arab countries. Of
 course, not all 100 000 computers that were distributed free found
 their way into the hands of opposition elements, but as it stands now
 major part of it was used to arrange the events of Arab Spring in
 different Arab countries: Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and so on. That made
 some people extremely worried, it was distributed free and the whole
 development, as it stands now, comes to a simple fact that Americans
 have admitted that Cyberspace is a very important instrument for their
 Foreign Policy and they are using it to impose the views on population
 and even some regimes in the outside world. Hillary Clinton is
 supposed to be godmother of creation of the new instrument of American
 Foreign Policy and we have a fact of creation special new department
 in the State Department of the United States, in the most important
 embassies they have special units, which are handling the cyber space.

 /But using for what? Can we specify the ultimate purpose of the operation?/

 There are different purposes: to prevent it's being used by terrorists
 but, on the other hand, they are using it to achieve their goals, so,
 in fact, we have a huge growing problem as it stands now. For example,
 the Pentagon, as stated, is attacked very often by hackers. This is
 another phenomena of the whole problem, and not only the private
 people are attacking but some foreign countries allegedly attack
 American net services of the Armed Forces and Navy and so on. And they
 stated that attack on their vital facilities is tent amount to
 declaring a war and in certain cases they allow themselves in reply,
 if they established and identified the source of attack and if it is
 state motivated attack, to claim that they can use nuclear weapons to
 punish the perpetrators.

 /But in that case there could always be a good justification for
 starting a war just considering the number of hacker attacks?/

 Of course, our people for example in Russia claim that there are about
 ten thousand cases of hacker attacks on government facilities in our
 country. The biggest problem of all is to identify the source of
 attack. For example, in the Stuxnet nobody was firmly sure that it was
 American or Israeli attack. Everybody is saying aloud about this but
 to prove is extremely difficult especially when we deal with countries
 of sophisticated nature and sophisticated achievements in this area.

 /But something needs to be done then. Is anything being done?/

 There is already growing effort in the world to try to find the way to
 cope with these problems and, for example, China, Russia and some
 other countries propose an international code of conduct for
 information security, their idea is to increase the role of
 governments in directing and operating the cyber space. Since
 Americans claim that they are going to defend their right to use cyber
 space without any hindrance, there is a growing difference but not
 only between Russia, China and the United States on the matter, but
 many other Western countries are also very much worried about the
 uncontrolled expansion of Internet and it being used by violent
 demonstrators, for example, in Britain the government of Britain is
 victim of many arranged demonstrations and this arrangement went
 through Internet and the Foreign Minister Hague has admitted that
 Internet requires some sort of control because it could not go
 uncontrolled like it is going now.

 /So, the problem is obviously there. But however Mr. Cross was
 insisting on what he termed as the openness of the Internet. Now the
 U.S. position as far as I understand it is that Internet should not be
 state controlled. But is there an alternative vision?/

 We have international efforts to start doing something. I already
 mentioned that there is Russian-Chine international code of conduct
 but there are meetings. For example, in Yekaterinburg recently this
 autumn there was a meeting of 52 countries arranged by our Security
 Council Office on the matters of Internet, and we have presented our
 views, Russian views, on that. Then in London on the 1st or on the 2nd
 of November there is going to be an international meeting for
 discussion of the problems of the global cyber space security.

 /But do the Americans support these efforts?/

 We must note that Americans got worried because there is definite
 effort to try to find common denominator on Internet among many
 countries. And as it is going now, it is definitely not on the
 American conditions but on the more balanced and serious attitude
 towards the possibility of controlling the cyber space. By the way,
 the treaty of collective security of former Soviet States recently had
 a meeting and there were critical elements in this meeting on this use
 of facebook, and tweeter, and youtube. This official dissemination of
 information is good but on the part of the Americans financial effort
 to support opposition and even insurgency activity in some countries,
 we have to admit that we don't have the same kind of developed
 instruments for diplomacy in Internet but people say that Washington
 has established its position in the Internet and they do not want to
 see them, they don't want to listen other countries and that's why we
 have to deal with all kinds of possibilities. For example, Americans
 would sooner or later leave Afghanistan and we will see huge problems
 for the Central Asian nations. And we already see the elements of
 American policy in the field of using cyber space to influence the
 mood and the future behavior of the population of the Central Asia
 when we are going to see that secular regimes in number of these
 countries fall. And Americans would try to introduce their elements
 into the real life in the area, which is so vital for Russia.

 /So, just let me specify, we are talking about Central Asia, an area,
 which is so far away from the U.S. itself./

 The experience shows that in Middle East, for example, Americans did
 not care. They brought out secular regimes and they now are very happy
 for a very short period of time with very dubious regimes with some
 dubious histories behind them.

 Well, Mr. Yevstafiev, thank you very much and I am quite positive that
 we are going to discuss this subject in our future programs and just
 to remind you, our guest speaker was Gennady Yevstafiev, retired
 Lieutenant General of the Russian Intelligence Service.
","2011-11-02 18:37:45",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/167291_-alpha-insight-ct-cyber-cyber-and-internet-governance-issues.html","marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com","attach/13/13943_GSC-CyberBulletin-4-October-2011.pdf"
168008,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   I disagree that Anonymous doesn't matter, but I agree the point of
   Tristan's piece is what makes this interesting.  innocent people could
   die, and that sucks.

   On 10/25/11 9:57 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     No, I didn't say that. 

     Sometimes we write about things--the most obvious and comparable example
     being Wikileaks-- that don't matter and explaining why they don't
     matter.  Another example being some of the grassroots terrorists who
     have been picked up in the US,  say Mohamad Osman Mohamad (sp?) for
     example.  He didn't matter, but we can provide a very good and cogent
     explanation of the threats he did and did not offer that few others do
     (or maybe no one else).

     But I don't think we have the expertise to truly deal with Anonymous and
     I don't care to give them more press for not doing much.  Tristan's
     piece on the other hand gets at a new and developing issue in what they
     are trying to do.  It's an anomaly i think that is worth covering.  It
     is probably the first time we will see violence as a result of their
     activities. 

     On 10/25/11 9:35 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

       So, until Anonymous doesn't become a national threat we shouldn't
       write about it?

       On 10/24/11 8:17 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         There's enough information on what's behind the Aurora attacks to
         respond and shut them down. 

         Change everything I said about SIGINT to CNO combined with
         all-source analysis and maybe human investigations.  Same point
         applies. With the low-level shit, it's usually not investigated.

         As far as I'm concerned an attack that matters is something
         seriously affects a country's capabilities relative to others.  (in
         this, intelligence can seriously affect those abilities, as it
         allows for them to be countered or become less advtantageous,
         relatively)
          

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Tristan Reed\" <tristan.reed@stratfor.com>
         To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
         Sent: Monday, October 24, 2011 7:33:59 PM
         Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels

         As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever
         identify the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target
         set was the only thing that led people to believe the Chinese
         government was responsible.

         2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
         responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
         cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case
         HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
         capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers.
         NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers but it does
         not make it SIGINT.

         Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

         Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
         SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by
         communication devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the
         signals. Combining computer network operations and SIGINT is
         innaccurate, because while SIGINT may be used with other
         intelligence disciplines in order to identify a hacker, it is not
         necessary and is no more related than any other intel discipline.
         SIGINT could help you identify a computer devices (not the operator)
         emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis, which is also separate
         from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could help in providing
         methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT wouldn't
         obtain those messages.

         In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators
         involved are specifically trained in computer science disciplines
         and technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

         NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
         technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
         resources in R&D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to
         NSA. But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO
         capabilities.

         Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary
         labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
         discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage to
         extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber
         attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered. 
         You chose the most prolific example of a cyber attack (which the
         whole operation consisted mainly outside of the cyber attack
         itself). Anything that falls short of this doesn't matter? Define
         what matters. None of anonymous' attacks have physically damaged
         secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think you are downplaying
         too much the significance of exposing corporate secrets, halting
         businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by defacing
         their websites.

         On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
               arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
               foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage
               undetected? No, of course not.  But I also would not argue
               that the SVR is so good to be immune to detection, as you are
               arguing with hackers.  I'm saying they are more detectable
               than you think.  There is no such thing as truly anonymous. 
               Everythign leaves a trail.  Will that trail in every instance
               lead to a single individual? no.  but it can lead to a place,
               an organization, and often, an individual. 

               2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
               responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to
               investigating cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to
               corroborate, in this case HUMINT is just as significant as
               SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not indicate its
               capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
               department for tracking hackers but it does not make it
               SIGINT.

               Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

               The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
               people assume there is no attribution because there is no
               response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
               this, because no attribution is one reason for no response. 
               Yes, they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for
               lack of response, then I think they are wrong. 

               3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
               laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
               involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same
               way there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime,
               there is one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be
               as hard to trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a
               neighborhood with much more serious crime and no CCTV
               cameras.  A more complicated attack, however, involves
               pre-operational surveillance, developing exploits, developing
               programs and code, gaining access, exploiting that, and
               carrying out an attack.  Discovering exploits and writing code
               can be done entirely offline, out of sight of law enforcement
               or intel agencies. Pre-operational surveillance and gaining
               access (the point of the exploit you write offline) would fit
               in my example. The point is, if you don't link your computer
               to identifiable information, you remain anonymous. Just like
               people use certain methods to build IEDs, people use certain
               mehtods to design programs and code for cyber attacks.  Over
               time, those methods become identifiable and more and more
               attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is linked back
               to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add. Being
               connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
               to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of
               those things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving
               more time for your exposure Exposure comes from network
               activity with the target, a lot of the pre-operational phase
               of an attack can occur without network activity. Look at
               everything that went into Stuxnet as a great example, that
               couldn't be done with one person with a new laptop. Writing
               the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
               for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
               discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage
               to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of
               a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not
               mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
               evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
               possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation,
               that even the best law enforcement and national intelligence
               agencies have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My
               point is that it's very difficult for someone to successfully
               use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be
               unable to attribute it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is
               effective in identifying hackers?I don't, but I'm confident
               they are far better than you are allowing for.    They may not
               choose to cover it if it is small scale crime, however. 
               On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                 I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state
                 sponsored cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in
                 actually doing that, since you can conduct a cyber attack
                 without associating with a hacker group and still deny /
                 cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual
                 attacking US computer assets from China, may be working by
                 himself or on behalf of the Chinese government, but unless
                 the US has other intel on the Chinese government's cyber
                 warfare activities in order to corroborate there is little
                 capability to distinguish.

                 It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
                 operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT.
                 Assets from SIGINT would not directly help you track an
                 individual responsible for hacking State run servers. In the
                 past, I have turned to SIGINT organizations for collections
                 on computer related material, but this was due to the US
                 being behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where to
                 assign responsibility. However, this has changed
                 dramatically in the last couple of years.

                 Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous.
                 As an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in
                 cash, go to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never
                 attribute the online activity to something revealing
                 (accessing personal email accounts, tweeting, entering
                 personal information to the laptop, etc..), and begin
                 hacking government email accounts then never use the laptop
                 again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of my
                 appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible security
                 cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

                 Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer
                 to these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities
                 tied to specific computer-related activities because of the
                 difficulty in identifying individuals.

                 I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be
                 blown, would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But
                 what if a common participant in \"Anonymous\" activities, was
                 working for a State? Anonymous has denounced state
                 governments before, if that State agent organizes an attack
                 amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs could a LEA
                 look for to distinguish?

                 On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                   In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming
                   in a bit)

                   1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
                   actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they
                   can't, but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows
                   the first real case where they could do some minor
                   damage--to individual people, not not to an organization
                   or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
                   threat. 

                   2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
                   actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous'
                   as a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and
                   could probably still be attributed if important enough to
                   those agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings
                   this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous
                   denies they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have
                   claimed an publicized attacks in the past, even before
                   they were carried out.  The attack on the Playstation
                   Network was more sophisticated than anonymous' usual work
                   (though potentially coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS
                   attacks that distracted Sony's IT security).  But whoever
                   did it, again, no real damage came of it.  Congress is
                   holding hearings over data security, but this is no
                   different than the OC groups stealing your credit card
                   information.  LE will go after them, have some success,
                   but the threat is not that large. 
                   On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                     I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity
                     to have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our
                     readers no nothing, or almost nothing about what this
                     group is and the threat it poses. Reviewing their list
                     of attacks
                     (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                     most of the cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a
                     Robin Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when
                     it comes to their interactions with the cartels is the
                     dubious role they play: at the same time they can be
                     fighting crime by revealing cartel members/supporters,
                     but they can also put lives in risk.

                     However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed
                     by Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on
                     Earth, can conduct a cyber attack under \"Anonymous\" is
                     worrisome.
                     (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                     If I run an organization, if I am responsible for
                     government websites, or if I am just a internet user, I
                     would like to know more about these guys. Who they are?
                     What are they interested in? How they operate? Who they
                     have targeted so far? How can I defend myself from them?
                     In what countries are they active? Should I worry about
                     them at all? Can I use them to achieve any particular
                     goal?

                     On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                       nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                       everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                       doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                       caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing
                       on journalists or taxi drivers they show little
                       understanding of the situation.  This has long term
                       implications in not just Mexico.  They don't consider
                       the consequences of their actions and they act without
                       understanding the environment.  It was the same when
                       they released information on the Sony Playstation
                       network to protest Sony.  They hurt innocent people to
                       prove a point. 

                       On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                         discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is
                         on what type of threat Anonymous can pose to
                         cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens
                         revealing personal information on cartels as well as
                         states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find
                         any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
                         individual being kidnapped. According to their
                         facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous
                         Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
                         posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
                         Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

                         Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                         distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                         government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via
                         the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
                         criminal cartels, including a video depicting a
                         masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
                         October 10? With the most recent video release,
                         Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal
                         cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
                         identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                         journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The
                         hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow
                         kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In the
                         Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                         mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                         reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
                         member are not met. The potential of conflict
                         between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
                         presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of
                         cartels lashing out at online bloggers, but I
                         haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with
                         any headaches from hackers before. 

                         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct
                         physical security threat to Mexican cartels.
                              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                         exploit online media
                              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in
                         Mexico to lash out at cartels

                         While not certain, there is a potential for
                         Anonymous to pose a threat
                              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to
                         possess identifiable information on cartel members
                              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous
                         could acquire on cartels
                              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                         communications, identifiable information on cartels
                         members have to be considered in the realm of
                         possibilities for
                                     Anonymous
                                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's
                         ability to reveal illicit online activity (child
                         pornography rings)

                         Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in
                         the ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in
                         Mexico. As a result, their understanding of cartel
                         activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with
                         confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but
                         this may blind them to any possible retribution.
                         They may not even know the impact of any online
                         assault of cartels.
                              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                         journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                         understand some of these individuals are forced to
                         collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                         often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                         halcones. Revealing the identity of these
                         individuals will not have a significant impact on
                         cartel                   operations. Politicans have
                         been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
                         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to
                         be any consequences from this.
                              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                         extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                         operations.
                                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                                 o    Cartels have reached out to the
                         computer science community before, coercing computer
                         science majors into working for them.
                                 o    This provides the cartels with the
                         possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                          

                         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like
                           the idea but there are several issues to address
                           and fix here.

                           These are the bullets of my main analytical
                           concern with the discussion:

                                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                           that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                                o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a
                           difference between stealing bank records from
                           government computers and overloading
                           www.loszetas.com main page.
                                o     There's no thought out process of what
                           sort of information could anon have on the
                           cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
                           accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
                           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's
                           dirty cops, politicians and businessmen who need
                           to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
                           Think about why the bloggers and media were killed
                           in previous instances. Was it because they
                           revealed operational details, because they acted
                           as informants, because they exposed links with
                           officials or because they somehow sullied the
                           cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                           information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                                o     Once you identify this info - think
                           about if anon can realistically access it and
                           disseminate it so it causes a measure of damage.
                           Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except
                           for the technical ability by a very small number
                           of its members to infiltrate certain networks and
                           databases and steal information. Now what kind of
                           information would a cartel keep on a network that
                           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
                           Where else could information be found? Government
                           databases? Once we know what kind of information
                           is accessible, we can also know more about the
                           consequences of dissemination.
                                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                           Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not,
                           there risks to be a lot of killings done by people
                           who may not understand the difference between an
                           anon hacker and a blogger.

                           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                             -------- Original Message --------

                              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs     
                                       Cartels                                
                                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500        
                                 From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>     
                             Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>               
                                   To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>               

                             you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                             going to need a lot more work

                             You need to lay out:

                             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                             trigger section is unclear
                             b) what our assessment of the online cartel
                             presence is, and therefore their vulnerabilities
                             and capabilities
                             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                             security anything
                             d) how far the cartels would be willing to
                             travel to kill anyone who breaches their systems
                             or exposes their connections

                             I also just want to point out that we have
                             reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the
                             very least has some significant levels of
                             sophistication in their online presence, to
                             include the use of cyber currencies and
                             significant IT capacity. There is no reason to
                             assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
                             business online, in a protected fashion.

                             Karen Hooper
                             Latin America Analyst
                             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                             c: 512.750.7234
                             STRATFOR
                             www.stratfor.com
                             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
","2011-10-25 17:35:41",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/168008_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
168783,"Re: intel guidance - europe
","   According to the person from the IMF whom I have talked with, \"Greek
   authorities are monitoring the cash flow position closely and they believe
   that they can manage until mid-December.\"

   This graphic shows what they mean by mid-December (I can't way for
   December 29 to arrive!):

   Greek payments
   On 11/2/11 10:11 PM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

     We still haven't heard the opinion of the IMF! I think we have to find
     out what role the troika plays in handing out the money. What if the
     money is handed out despite the protests (at least in the media) from
     Merkel and Sarkozy's side? That is a possibility right?

     On 11/2/11 9:57 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

 On it! The FODs are in France right now & said nothing is decided (and i mean nothing) until either Friday or the 8th in Berlin. I am trying to set up a session to game out all possibilities for Fri with FODs. They're being cautious in France. They also reminded me that the date for Med in Greece is up in the air--meaning Russia could cancel or speed it up.

 Sent from my iPhone

 On Nov 2, 2011, at 9:23 PM, Peter Zeihan <zeihan@stratfor.com> wrote:


 The Germans and French have cut off bailout money to Greece. This means Greece will run out of money very quickly and default. Perhaps even before the referendum. The timeline for the European crisis just accelerated disastrously.

 Questions we need to break down:

 1) Kristen: Need to dive into Greek politics tomorrow to see if we can form a forecast as to whether Papa-G can survive the confidence vote. That's probably going to need to be tomorrow's diary? If the answer is no, then this unwinds somewhat.

 2) Adriano: Assuming the answer to #1 is yes, we need to find out how long Greece can last with the money in Athens' pockets right now, with no additional outlays from the EFSF. The IMF is likely the best source of unbiased (well, less biased) information in that regard.

 3) Christoph: We need to be sure that German control of the EFSF is as strong as we think it is. Time to make some friends at the Facility to get their point of view of this latest twist to the crisis.

 4) Lauren: I'm floored that the Russians aren't being tapped. This is getting disturbingly serious. Please buzz your FODs (friends of Dvorkovich) again to see if anything is changing as regards the G20/EFSF/$$$ commitments.

 5) Everyone else: Its possible the Germans/French are going to try and reach out in light of the Greek situation to build up the EFSF. China, Korea and Brazil are the three states that'll be at the G20 (besides Russia) who could theoretically make a meaningful contribution. Considering that they are all en route at present the chances of hearing something in their capitals is slim, but its worth seeing if we can pick up anything.








 --
 Christoph Helbling
 ADP
 STRATFOR

 --
 Adriano Bosoni - ADP
","2011-11-03 17:06:18",1,"2012-02-28 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/168783_re-intel-guidance-europe-.html","adriano.bosoni@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com","attach/13/13981_Greek payments.jpg"
170037,"Re: MORE*: G3/B3 - GREECE - Greece to call referendum on new EU
	aid	deal
","   Well this'll get exciting

   On Oct 31, 2011, at 9:01 PM, Michael Wilson <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
   wrote:

     Some clarity from these articles. The referendum won't be until next
     year, probably January. But there will be a vote on whether to have the
     referendum, this week, on Friday, and it will be tied to a confidence
     vote which he is expected to pass with 3 votes

     Greek PM gambles on referendum for new debt deal; vote expected early
     2012

      
     http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/markets/greek-prime-minister-calls-referendum-on-new-debt-deal-no-date-given/2011/10/31/gIQA5NdjZM_story.html

     By Associated Press, Updated: Monday, October 31, 4:39 PM

     ATHENS, Greece a** Taking a huge political gamble, Greecea**s prime
     minister announced Monday that his debt-strapped country will hold a
     referendum on the new European debt deal reached last week a** the first
     such vote in 37 years.

     Prime Minister George Papandreou appeared to take many lawmakers by
     surprise by saying that a hard-bargained agreement that took months for
     Europea**s leaders to hammer out will be put to a public ballot.
     He gave no date or other details on the proposed referendum, which would
     be the first in Greece since 1974, when the monarchy was abolished by a
     landslide vote months after the collapse of a military dictatorship.

     a**This will be the referendum: The citizen will be called upon to say a
     big a**yesa** or a big a**noa** to the new loan arrangement,a**
     Papandreou told Socialist members of parliament. a**This is a supreme
     act of democracy and of patriotism for the people to make their own
     decision ... We have a duty to promote the role and the responsibility
     of the citizen.a**
     The move allows Socialist lawmakers a** who have been vilified by an
     increasingly hostile public during months of strikes, sit-ins and
     violent protests over rounds of austerity measures a** to pass the
     responsibility for the countrya**s fate to the Greek people themselves.

     Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, a constitutional law professor,
     said the referendum was called after opposition parties repeatedly
     failed to side with the government in negotiations between Greece and
     other eurozone members.
     a**Greece is living through a drama, from which it must be released by
     asking the people to express its will,a** Venizelos told parliament.

     a**Each citizen will make his own decision, with responsibility, in a
     process that will provide a national sense of relief and recovery.a**

     Later he told private Antenna television: a**It is very clear: The new
     agreement will be submitted to parliament for approval and then
     submitted to the judgment of the Greek people ... the Greek people can
     of course say a**noa** but must bear in mind the consequences of that
     decision.a**
     Venizelos indicated the referendum would be held early next year, after
     weeks of complex negotiations to finalize details of the new agreement.

     The new debt deal aims to seek 50 percent losses for private holders of
     Greek bonds and provide the troubled eurozone member with a*NOT100
     billion ($140 billion) in additional rescue loans.

     Papandreoua**s government has seen its majority reduced to just three
     seats in parliament and its approval ratings plummet amid harsh
     austerity measures that are sending the country into a fourth year of
     recession in 2012.

     The EU statistics agency Eurostat estimated in a report issued Monday
     that unemployment in Greece reached 17.6 percent in July a** even higher
     than the Greek estimate for that month of 16.5 percent.

     a**This is just the latest twist in the unfolding Greek tragedy,a** said
     Sony Kapoor, managing director of Re-Define, a London-based think tank.

     a**With an irresponsible opposition that is promising Greek voters the
     moon, it is very difficult to see how this referendum could be won under
     the ongoing gut-wrenching austerity.a**

     Greece calls referendum on EU bail-out
     http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/68748490-03f5-11e1-98bc-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1cPlCODKu
     Last updated: October 31, 2011 10:46 pm
     By Kerin Hope in Athens, Peter Spiegel in Brussels and Telis Demos in
     New York
     Greek Prime Minister George PapandreouGetty

     Greecea**s prime minister unexpectedly announced a referendum to approve
     a second EU bail-out deal for his austerity-hit country, less than a
     week after it was agreed with international creditors at a European
     Union summit.

     George Papandreou made the pledge on Monday night in a speech to
     lawmakers in his fractious PanHellenic Socialist Movement (Pasok) party
     but did not set a specific date for the vote.

     a**We have faith in our citizens, we believe in their judgment and
     therefore in their decision,a** Mr Papandreou said after rejecting a
     call for early elections by some socialist politicians. a**All the
     countrya**s political forces should support the [bail-out] agreement.
     The citizens will do the same once they are fully informed.a**

     The premiera**s move reinforced concerns that Greecea**s fraught
     domestic politics are spiralling out of control amid growing popular
     anger over public sector job cuts and tax increases. Strikes and violent
     demonstrations have become frequent in Athens and other cities.

     The referendum also looked likely to cause alarm in Brussels, Paris and
     Berlin after Mr Papandreoua**s assurances at Wednesdaya**s summit that
     Greece was determined to maintain a steady pace of reform.

     Thanks to some help from the European Commission, we have a bit more
     clarity on where European leaders will be spending the new a*NOT130bn in
     Greek bail-out aid

     One senior EU official told the Financial Times that Mr Papandreou had
     appeared reticent about the components of the bail-out package during
     talks at last weeka**s summit of EU presidents and prime ministers but
     no one was prepared for the referendum announcement that came a**like a
     bolt out of the bluea**.
     a**I dona**t think anyone expected this,a** the official said. a**The
     calculation has to be this is the only way [Papandreou] believes he can
     get this through.a**

     a**With an irresponsible opposition that is promising Greek voters the
     moon, it is very difficult to see how this referendum could be won,a**
     added Sony Kapoor, head of Re-Define, an economic consultancy. a**The
     decision is good for democracy but is likely to make the euro crisis
     worse by heightening uncertainty in this very fragile environment.a**

     The announcement exacerbated declines in the euro and equities, as
     investors feared that angry Greek voters could derail the painstakingly
     negotiated plan.

     The euro fell to a session low of $1.3827, down more than 2 per cent on
     the day and erasing its gains from last week, when the deal was first
     announced. US stocks accelerated their decline as well, with the S&P 500
     index ending the day down 2.5 per cent. It was the indexa**s worst
     one-day fall in nearly a month, ending what had been stocksa** best
     month since 1991, with a gain of 10.7 per cent, on a sour note.

     An opinion poll published on Sunday showed that more than 60 per cent of
     Greeks were opposed to the terms of the new bail-out, which would
     include another 100,000 job losses over the next three years and big
     cuts in pensions.

     The vote would probably be held in January, when Greek bondholders were
     expected to sign up for a voluntary 50 per cent haircut being negotiated
     with the International Institute of Finance, wrapping up the new
     bail-out package. One Athens banker said: a**This is a worrying decision
     by the prime minister. It could derail the whole process even before
     ita**s properly started.a**

     The premier also announced that a vote of confidence in his government
     would be held this week to endorse the referendum proposal. That vote
     would follow a three-day debate on Greecea**s worsening economic and
     social problems

     Antonis Samaras, the conservative opposition leader, immediately
     rejected the proposal, arguing that a referendum was a**not the way
     outa**.

     a**The only option is elections and, like Ireland and Portugal, to
     request the obviously necessary changes in the bail-out agreement,a** he
     added, referring to proposals by leaders of the two other eurozone
     member states that are implementing EU-IMF programmes.

     Mr Papandreou said this year he might call a referendum on reforms of
     Greecea**s political system but ruled out a vote on its relationship
     with the eurozone. His sudden reversal came as a shock, according to
     party officials. a**This is another upset in a situation that is already
     volatile,a** one said.

     Greece to Hold Referendum on New Debt Deal
     By NIKI KITSANTONIS and RACHEL DONADIO
     Published: October 31, 2011

       
     http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/01/world/europe/greece-to-hold-referendum-on-new-debt-deal.html
     ATHENS a** In a surprise move that jolted Europe and put his political
     future in play, Prime Minister George A. Papandreou announced Monday
     that his government would hold a referendum on a new aid package for
     Greece, putting austerity measures a** and potentially membership in the
     euro zone a** to a popular vote for the first time.

     Analysts said the vote on the austerity package did not immediately
     threaten the comprehensive agreement reached by European leaders last
     week to shore up the euro zone. More likely, they said, a rejection by
     the voters would be treated as a vote of no confidence in the government
     and lead to early elections.

     But the decision to go ahead with the vote introduces a note of
     uncertainty in what had seemed to be a done deal. The anxiety stirred up
     by those fears hammered United States financial markets on Monday,
     showing once again how the domestic politics of even the smallest
     members of the European Union can create troubles that not only threaten
     the currency but reverberate around the globe.

     Addressing lawmakers on Monday evening, Mr. Papandreou said the decision
     on whether to adopt the deal, which includes fresh financial assistance,
     debt relief and deeply unpopular austerity measures, properly belonged
     to the Greek people.

     a**Let us allow the people to have the last word, let them decide on the
     countrya**s fate,a** he said.

     The move was widely seen as an effort by Mr. Papandreou to shore up his
     flagging political fortunes and to avoid the instability of early
     elections. The center-right opposition has opposed the bulk of the
     austerity program, and the prime ministera**s popular support has
     dwindled as Greeks have been hit by a seemingly endless series of tax
     increases and wage and pension cuts.

     A referendum would in effect shift responsibility for the nationa**s
     painful economic choices from Mr. Papandreoua**s Socialist Party onto
     the public.

     By framing the debate as one of continuing to use the euro or returning
     to the drachma, the move also appeared to give the Greek government a
     bit more breathing room a** and leverage a** in negotiations with Europe
     over the debt deal, proving that a matter that some in Germany had hoped
     had been settled last week still had the potential to be reopened.

     a**Ita**s not motivated by the intention of some sort of brinkmanship
     with Europe, but it may have this sort of positive or negative
     effect,a** said George Pagoulatos, a professor of European politics and
     economy at the Athens University of Economics and Business. a**It raises
     the stakes. Ita**s about, a**Will we remain in the euro with a lower
     public debt or will we lose everything that we will achieve?a** a**

     At a time when Mr. Papandreou is under intense political and social
     pressure, including from members of his own Socialist Party, the move
     was seen as the last card he could play.

     It was still unclear how the referendum question would be posed, but Mr.
     Papandreou said the vote would be on whether Greeks supported the debt
     deal and the program of austerity measures in exchange for foreign aid.

     The stakes are extremely high. A no vote would not only be likely to
     bring down the Greek government, it could break the deal between Greece
     and its so-called troika of foreign lenders a** the European Union,
     European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund a** which have
     demanded structural changes and austerity measures in exchange for aid.

     Without the aid, Greece would not be able to meet its expenses and would
     default on its debt, and send shockwaves through the euro zone and the
     world economy.

     Mr. Papandreou also said that he would seek a parliamentary vote of
     confidence in his administration, just four months after winning a
     similar vote before pushing an earlier batch of austerity measures into
     law. The vote of confidence is expected to be held on Friday evening,
     and Mr. Papandreou is expected to squeak by with his narrow three-vote
     majority in Parliament.
     Government officials said the referendum would probably be held in
     January, essentially buying the government time while the details of the
     debt deal are hammered out.

     Addressing lawmakers on Monday evening, Finance Minister Evangelos
     Venizelos raised the stakes further by framing the debate as one of
     Greece staying in the euro zone a** the group of 17 European Union
     countries that use the euro. a**Ita**s for the people to decide to stay
     in Europe or go back to the drachma,a** he said.

     Takis Michas, a political analyst and the project director of Forum for
     Greece, an Athens research institute, said posing the question this way
     was a**a master stroke on behalf of Papandreou in the sense it is
     forcing the various parties to take a very responsible position.a**

     a**If he succeeds in framing the issue as being one of remaining in the
     euro zone, obviously he is going to get a huge yes,a** Mr. Michas added.
     a**But it depends on whether he can frame the question in those
     terms.a**

     Under the Greek Constitution, the government must propose the language
     of the referendum, which would need to be approved by Parliament and
     then by the president.

     Some analysts said the referendum was an invitation for instability.
     a**People are very discontented with him personally and toward his
     economic policy, and in these kinds of circumstances when the debate is
     very passionate and things are tense, holding a referendum could be
     risky,a** said Alexis Papahelas, the editor of the center-right daily
     Kathimerini.

     a**If the referendum fails, obviously everything will be in disarray,a**
     he added. a**Probably we will go to elections, but we have a very big
     chance that the country would go into a disorderly default.a**

     Last Thursday, after European leaders and the International Monetary
     Fund had finally reached an accord, Mr. Papandreou had hailed a**a new
     day for Europe and for Greece.a** But the deal has proved broadly
     unpopular among Greeks, who do not understand how it will translate into
     immediate relief.

     Papandreou Calls on Greeks to Back EU Debt Accord in Referendum
     October 31, 2011, 9:05 PM EDT

     http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-31/papandreou-calls-on-greeks-to-back-eu-debt-accord-in-referendum.html

     Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said voters
     will give him support to forge ahead with economic reforms as he pledged
     a referendum on the European Uniona**s latest accord on the nationa**s
     financing.

     a**For the new agreement, we must go to a referendum for Greeks to
     decide,a** Papandreou told lawmakers of his ruling socialist Pasok party
     in statements carried live yesterday from Athens on state-run Vouli TV.
     a**Democracy is alive and well and Greeks are being called to rise to a
     national duty beyond the regular electoral processes.a**

     Papandreoua**s gambit risks pushing the country into default if rejected
     by voters, and raises the ante with dissidents inside his own party.
     Papandreoua**s popularity has plunged after a raft of austerity measures
     cut pensions and wages, increased taxes and sparked a wave of social
     unrest. An opinion poll published Oct. 29 showed most Greeks believe the
     accord on a new bailout package and a debt writedown is negative.

     a**Papandreou could lose the referendum, which means that new elections
     would have to be called,a** Thomas Costerg, European economist at
     Standard Chartered Bank in London, said in an e-mail. a**Heightened
     Greek uncertainty could propagate to other fragile euro-area countries,
     in particular Italy.a**

     Most of the 1,009 people surveyed on Oct. 27, the day the agreement was
     announced, said the accord should be put to a referendum, according to
     the results of the Kapa Research SA poll, published in To Vima
     newspaper. Forty-six percent said theya**d oppose the plan at such a
     referendum. In the same poll, more than seven in 10 favored Greece
     remaining in the euro.

     Confidence Vote

     Papandreou also told lawmakers hea**ll seek a vote of confidence in
     parliament. The referendum will likely be held after details of the EU
     accord are wound up, Papandreou said. The vote of confidence will begin
     tomorrow and conclude late on Nov. 4, according to statements yesterday
     by House Speaker Filipos Petsalnikos.

     EU leaders carved out a second aid package for Greece at a summit in
     Brussels lasting into the early hours of Oct. 27, after Papandreou
     scraped together parliamentary approval for the second round of
     austerity measures in four months. Greece will receive 130 billion euros
     ($180 billion) in public funds plus a 50 percent writedown on Greek
     debt, following a fully taxpayer- funded package of 110 billion euros
     extended in May 2010.

     Venizelosa**s View

     a**I can no longer look at polls where the majority is against the
     agreement, the majority is against the program, but a majority is also
     in favor of staying in the euro,a** Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos
     said on Antenna TV after Papandreou announced his decision. A a**noa**
     vote at the referendum would lead to a**developmentsa** that the
     government would assess, Venizelos said.

     Papandreou, whose term ends in 2013, is seeking renewed support to push
     through measures including job cuts to turn around an economy that is
     set to shrink 5.5 percent this year. The program involves new taxes and
     cuts in spending to plug the EUa**s second-biggest budget gap.

     The state budget deficit widened to 19.2 billion euros in the January to
     end-September period from 16.7 billion euros a year earlier, according
     to an e-mailed statement from the Athens-based Finance Ministry
     yesterday.

     Opposition parties repeated their call for elections. Papandreoua**s
     plans are a**recklessa** and put Greecea**s EU membership at risk, lead
     opposition New Democracy party spokesman Yiannis Michelakis said.

     a**Dangerousa**

     Papandreou a**has tossed Greecea**s future in Europe in the air like a
     coin,a** Michelakis said in an e-mailed statement from NDa**s Athens
     offices yesterday. a**He is dangerous and must go. There is a solution:
     elections now. Ita**s the safest a**referendum.a**a**

     Papandreou now has just a three-seat majority in parliament and won
     approval for his latest austerity package amid protests that left one
     person dead. The budget measures prompted a near- rebellion in
     Papandreoua**s party and violence in the streets.

     The New Democracy party, led by Antonis Samaras, would win 22 percent of
     the vote in elections, with Papandreoua**s Pasok party receiving 14.7
     percent, and neither getting enough to form a majority in Parliament,
     according to the Kapa poll. More than 26 percent of voters said they
     were undecided on who to back. The margin of error is 3.09 percentage
     points.

     Separately, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association said
     that the euro-area proposals for Greek bonds appear to involve a**a
     voluntary exchange that would not be binding on all holders,a**
     according to an e-mailed statement.

     a**As such, it does not appear to be likely that the euro zone proposal
     will trigger payments under existing CDS contracts,a** the statement
     said. a**However, whether or not it does so will be decided by the
     Determinations Committee on the basis of specific facts, if a request is
     made to them.a**

     The ISDA statement late yesterday follows a review of whether the
     proposal would constitute a a**credit eventa** for holders of
     credit-default swaps linked to the securities.

     --With assistance from Jennifer Ryan in London and Antonis Galanopoulos
     in Athens. Editors: Digby Lidstone, Craig Stirling, Kevin Costelloe

     To contact the reporters responsible for this story: Maria Petrakis in
     Athens at mpetrakis@bloomberg.net; Natalie Weeks in Athens at
     nweeks2@bloomberg.net; Marcus Bensasson in Athens at
     mbensasson@bloomberg.net

     To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tim Quinson at
     tquinson@bloomberg.net

     Greek PM calls referendum on new EU aid deal
     http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/31/us-greece-referendum-idUSTRE79U5PQ20111031
     By Dina Kyriakidou and Harry Papachristou

     ATHENS | Mon Oct 31, 2011 6:50pm EDT

     (Reuters) - Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou called an unexpected
     referendum on Monday on the EU bailout deal for his debt-ridden country,
     a move that could necessitate a snap election if a public angry with
     swinging austerity measures rejects the deal.

     Pressured by his own lawmakers to share the heavy political burden of
     belt-tightening with other parties, Papandreou said he needed wider
     political support for the fiscal measures and structural reforms
     required by international lenders.

     \"We trust citizens, we believe in their judgment, we believe in their
     decision,\" he told ruling Socialist party deputies. \"In a few weeks the
     (EU) agreement will be a new loan contract... we must spell out if we
     are accepting it or if we are rejecting it.\"

     Analysts said holding a referendum was a baffling decision, given that
     the latest survey showed a majority of Greeks taking a negative view of
     the bailout deal.

     Opposition parties reacted angrily, accusing Papandreou of looking for a
     way out for his embattled party by dragging Greece, which has seen
     violent clashes between protesters and riot police, through a lengthy
     period of political instability.

     The euro extended losses against the dollar after the announcement,
     tumbling more than 2 percent to a session low.

     Papandreou, grappling with Greece's worst financial crisis in 40 years,
     had discussed holding a referendum but many people were shocked at the
     prospect of weary, disgruntled citizens being asked to decide whether to
     accept or reject the bailout.

     \"Mr. Papandreou is dangerous, he tosses Greece's EU membership like a
     coin in the air,\" said conservative opposition New Democracy party
     spokesman Yannis Michelakis. \"He cannot govern and instead of
     withdrawing honorably, he dynamites everything.\"

     New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras will visit President Karolos
     Papoulias on Tuesday to discuss developments and push for snap
     elections, party officials said.

     Weekend polls showed most Greeks took a negative view of the decision by
     euro zone leaders last week to hand cashed-strapped Athens a second,
     130-billion-euro bailout and a 50-percent write-down on its enormous
     debt to make it sustainable.

     \"I never expected Papandreou to take such a dangerous and frivolous
     decision,\" said Dora Bakoyanni, former foreign minister and leader of
     the small center-right Democratic Alliance party. \"Tomorrow all the
     international media will say that Greece itself is putting the EU deal
     at risk.\"

     Germany issued a statement saying the EU was working hard to put the
     second Greek aid package in place by the end of the year and had no
     comment on the referendum. EU leaders hammered out the deal last week,
     fearing the Greek debt crisis would speed to other euro zone countries
     and shake global markets.

     \"If there was to be a referendum, we may reasonably conclude that they
     may not accept the austerity measures. We may conclude that it will
     bring the pack of cards tumbling down,\" said Howard Wheeldon, senior
     strategist at BGC Partners in London.

     Papandreou also said he would ask for a vote of confidence to secure
     support for his policy for the rest of his four-year term, which expires
     in 2013.

     Analysts said he was likely to win that, despite dissent among his
     parliamentary team. He was forced to expel a senior party member for
     voting against part of his latest austerity package and others warned
     him it was the last time they would vote for measures they did not
     believe in.

     Parliament officials said the confidence debate would begin on
     Wednesday, with a vote on Thursday or Friday.

     LEGALITY QUESTIONED

     Papandreou said the referendum would ask Greeks whether or not they
     agreed to the deal and would take place in a few weeks. Finance Minister
     Evangelos Venizelos told Greek TV it would probably be held early next
     year.

     But parliamentarians questioned its legality under the constitution,
     which does not allow referendums on economic issues, only on matters of
     great national importance.

     The last time Greeks held a referendum was in December 1974, when they
     voted to abolish the monarchy shortly after the collapse of a military
     dictatorship.

     \"It's debatable whether the constitution allows such a referendum,\" said
     Fotis Kouvelis, leader of the small Democratic Left party. \"The country
     must go to early elections. Given the situation, it's the most honorable
     solution.\"

     For a referendum result to be binding, there must be a minimum 40
     percent turnout on issues of \"crucial national importance\" and 50
     percent on a law that has already been voted on in parliament and
     \"regulates a serious social issue,\" according to legislation enacted
     earlier this year. It was not clear which option the government would
     favor.

     \"If the referendum answer is no, Papandreou has to resign,\" said Costas
     Panagopoulos, an analyst at polling firm Alco.

     \"In the meantime what will happen with the decisions the EU took last
     week? I cannot understand what the prime minister wants to do. It could
     be the only way he has to leave the government, to share
     responsibility.\"

     Nearly 60 percent of Greeks view Thursday's EU summit agreement on the
     new bailout package as negative or probably negative, a survey showed on
     Saturday.

     Several lawmakers have defected from Papandreou's Socialist party over
     the packages of austerity measures enacted to qualify for bailout
     payments under last year's aid agreement, and the party trails in
     opinion polls.

     New Democracy is rising fast in opinion polls, but no party would win
     outright if polls were held now, leading to coalition governments or
     repeated elections.

     \"The prime minister is obviously stuck in a dead end and he is leading
     the country down a very dangerous slope,\" said far right LAOS party MP
     Makis Voridis.

     Greek Vote Threatens Bailout
     Premier Calls for Surprise Referendum Days After European Leaders OK Aid
     Deal

         EUROPE NEWS
         NOVEMBER 1, 2011
      http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204394804577010091283798750.html
     By ALKMAN GRANITSAS, MARCUS WALKER and COSTAS PARIS

     ATHENSa**Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou stunned Europe by
     announcing a referendum on his country's latest bailouta**a high-stakes
     gamble that could undermine the international effort to preserve the
     euro.

     A \"yes\" vote in the referendum could deflate the massive street protests
     and strikes that threaten to paralyze Greece as it tries to enact a
     brutal austerity program to earn rescue loans from the euro zone and the
     International Monetary Fund.

     A \"no\" vote, however, could bring down the government and cut off
     international funding for Greece, leaving the country facing a financial
     meltdown. The government expects to hold the referendum in January.

     Some Greek government officials believe a defeat in the referendum could
     propel their country out of the euro zone. Many European policy makers
     fear that a messy Greek default could spark a financial-market panic
     that would particularly affect Italy, a major European economy that's
     already struggling to retain investors' trust.

     Mr. Papandreou's dramatic announcement, which he delivered late Monday
     in a speech to lawmakers, renders the outcome of Europe's debt crisis
     more uncertain than ever. It comes less than a week after euro-zone
     leaders agreed on a \"comprehensive package\" of measures to keep Greece
     afloat, reassure financial markets and stabilize the region. That
     agreement was supposed to ensure that Athens avoids a unilateral debt
     default, restructures its debts in cooperation with bondholders, and
     cuts its budget deficit further in return for a a*NOT130 billion ($180
     billion) bailout.

     With the fate of the deal in the lap of Greek voters, the euro crisis is
     likely to dominate this week's summit of the Group of 20 leading global
     economies in Cannes, France. For months, the U.S. government has been
     pressing Europe to resolve the two-year-old Greek debt crisis, which is
     undermining investor confidence in ever-growing swaths of the euro
     currency zone. The lingering uncertainty, in turn, has hurt confidence
     in global financial markets, and the looming referendum will only
     accentuate that.

     The announcement in Athens roiled financial markets late Monday, pushing
     the euro down 2.1% against the dollar to $1.3859, the European
     currency's biggest one-day slide in six months. Already-weak U.S. stocks
     sank further into the red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its
     worst daily decline in a month, falling 276.10 points, or 2.26%, to
     11955.01. \"Maybe the [Greek bailout] deal is in jeopardy,\" said Stephen
     Leuer, a floor trader at X-FA trading. \"Any sort of doubt is definitely
     going to set us back,\" he said, adding that U.S. markets are \"very
     sensitive\" to news from Europe at present.

     Greece's embattled leader decided to go for a referendum as a way of
     shoring up support for the drastic government spending cuts and tax
     hikes that his country's parlous finances have forced him to enact,
     Greek officials say.

     Mr. Papandreou, who inherited a fiscal mess after winning election in
     2009 as head of a Socialist administration, has had to slash Greeks'
     cherished welfare entitlements to please the country's international
     creditors, in the face of opposition from labor unions and parts of his
     own party.

     Prime Minister George Papandreou announces a referendum on a debt deal.

     The mild-mannered, U.S.-born premier floated the idea of a referendum
     earlier this year as public hostility to austerity mounted, but he
     backed off amid fears that such a move would be destabilizing for Greece
     and for Europe.

     In recent weeks, however, public and parliamentary patience with
     austerity and an ever-deepening recession has stretched thin, weakening
     Mr. Papandreou's authority.

     The government needs a stronger democratic mandate to implement last
     week's bailout agreement with Europe and the IMF, Mr. Papandreou told a
     stunned audience of Socialist lawmakers on Monday. For that, he said,
     \"we need to go to a referendum.\"

     The question put to voters will be simple, he said: \"Do we want to adopt
     the new agreement? Or do we want to reject it?\" The popular verdict
     would be binding, he added. \"If the Greek people do not want it to be
     implemented, very simply it won't be implemented.\"

     What would happen next is anything but clear. A binding voter rejection
     of Europe's terms for a bailout would leave euro-zone leaders such as
     German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy
     with a bitter choice. Either they let Greece default on its a*NOT355
     billion of public debt, risking panic throughout Europe's
     government-bond markets and banking sectors; or they cave in and offer
     Greece more generous bailout terms.

     Relaxing Greece's bailout terms would anger voters in Germany and other
     countries who are already resentful of having to subsidize Greece, a
     country that is widely viewed in Europe as having lived beyond its means
     for years. It could also prompt other recipients of rescue
     loansa**Ireland and Portugala**to demand similarly generous treatment.
     That, in turn, would test both the political tolerance and the financial
     wherewithal of Europe's core economies to support weaker euro nations.

     A Greek referendum on its bailout, for the first time in the two-year
     crisis, would put what many Greeks view as draconian spending cuts
     demanded by Athens' international creditors to a democratic test. The
     result of the vote could reverberate around the euro zone, putting
     pressure on governments in other European countries that are enacting
     austerity measures to stem the debt crisis to ask for their voters'
     consent.

     Opinion polls suggest Mr. Papandreou faces a struggle to convince an
     increasingly angry electorate. A survey published at the weekend showed
     that 58.9% of Greeks oppose last week's European deal; there are fears
     that the planned debt restructuring will bring further pain while
     yielding few benefits for the country.

     The poll, the first since last week's bailout deal was struck, showed
     that some 54.2% of Greeks thought a national referendum should be called
     to approve the new aid deal, while only 40% thought Parliament should
     decide.

     However, Mr. Papandreou is betting that voters may approve the bailout
     package if they are forced to confront the alternative of national
     bankruptcy and a possible exit from the euro.

     Some Greek officials say the referendum question could be worded in such
     a way that voters see it as a matter of Greece's continued euro
     membership. The recent opinion poll showed 72.5% of Greeks want to stay
     in the euro zone. \"The actual meaning of the referendum is a choice
     between the euro and the drachma,\" the traditional Greek currency, a
     senior Socialist official said.

     In a bid to shore up flagging support within his own party, Mr.
     Papandreou also called for a fresh vote of confidence in his
     governmenta**just months after narrowly winning such a vote in June.

     On 10/31/11 2:22 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

       vote of confidence and the referendum are two separate things, not
       attached. He has already employed the vote of confidence before and
       presumably could get it again. This is why it was so important last
       week or so when the MP resigned both party and seat so PASOK could put
       someone in who was indebted to the party

       The referendum is what im not sure he could win. Also will be
       interesting to see which comes first

       On 10/31/11 2:15 PM, Kristen Cooper wrote:

         Well, if it has a confidence vote attached to it and fails,
         Papandreou wouldn't necessarily be the one the EU is negotiating
         with. There are a couple different aspects here, but I don't think
         this was a move to negotiate a better deal with the EU. This is as
         about as good as deal as they could possibly hope for.

         I think with a referendum, he's essentially calling the public out -
         \"Look, this is the deal I got. Take it or leave it.\" If its
         approved, then you undermine the legitimacy of the people striking
         and protesting over the deal. If if it fails - along with an
         attached confidence vote - fails, then that means somebody else has
         to come up with a concrete alternative to the plan - which no one
         has credibly come forth with yet.

         On 10/31/11 2:45 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

           Remember that in September there were reports (subsequently
           denied) that they would hold a referendum on the Euro. This is
           just a referendum on the new EU aid deal, but I imagine will serve
           a similar political role

           If it gets approved he has legitimacy. If it doesnt he can better
           negotiate with EU I guess. Scary to think what happens if its not
           approved...

           Greece says not considering referendum on euro

            http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/20/greece-referendum-idUSA8E7JO01720110920

           ATHENS, Sept 20 | Tue Sep 20, 2011 3:41am EDT

           (Reuters) - Greece denied a report on Tuesday that it was
           considering holding a referendum on the country's membership in
           the euro zone.

           Kathimerini daily wrote on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources, that
           Prime Minister George Papandreou was considering calling for a
           referendum on whether Greece should continue to tackle its debt
           crisis within the euro zone or by exiting the single currency.

           The government has long said it was planning a referendum on
           political reforms but has repeatedly denied that it would concern
           the country's euro membership.

           Asked if the referendum would be about staying in the euro zone,
           deputy government spokesman Angelos Tolkas said: \"No. We haven't
           discussed such an issue, definitely not.\"

           He said the government had put to parliament on Monday a bill
           aimed at allowing the country to hold referenda but without
           specifying any issue.

           \"Yesterday we tabled a bill about referenda ... but we have not
           discussed anything more than holding a referendum.\" (Reporting by
           Angeliki Koutantou; writing by Ingrid Melander; editing by Michael
           Winfrey)

           Greece may hold referendum on euro zone membership: report

              
           http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/20/us-greece-referendum-idUSTRE78J07W20110920
           Mon Sep 19, 2011 8:57pm EDT

           (Reuters) - Greece may hold a voter referendum on euro zone
           membership as a way to strengthen the government's hand in dealing
           with the debt crisis within the euro zone or by exiting the single
           currency, the Kathimerini English language newspaper reported on
           its website on Tuesday.

           Prime Minister George Papandreou is considering calling for the
           referendum as pressure has mounted from all sides with Greece's
           foreign creditors pushing for quicker budget cuts, while
           large-scale citizen street protests against austerity are held
           almost daily, the newspaper said, citing unnamed sources.

           A bill to be submitted in parliament, paving the way for a
           referendum, is to be discussed in the coming days, the newspaper
           added.

           For the newspaper website, see: www.ekathimerini.com

           Papandreou had earlier resisted any referendum, but now thinks
           such a vote could bring a fresh mandate for his Socialist
           government to continue with an austerity drive backed by Greece's
           international lenders, the newspaper said.

           The cabinet is reportedly split, with several ministers calling
           for drastic action including early elections at an emergency
           meeting on Sunday, the newspaper said, while others want to avoid
           a referendum or new polls.

           (Writing by Ed Layne in Singapore; Editing by Yoko Nishikawa)

           On 10/31/11 1:34 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

             Greece to hold referendum on new debt deal

             (AP) a** 10 minutes ago
             http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jKv9sosbqxb_nvPl5iOA50fQfTkQ?docId=630021ce8f5d4b55b858d29d616e23c4
             ATHENS, Greece (AP) a** Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou
             says his country will hold a referendum on a new European debt
             deal reached last week.

             Papandreou gave no date on other details of proposed referendum
             on the deal that aims to seek 50 percent losses for private
             holders of Greek bonds and provide the troubled eurozone member
             with euro100 billion ($140 billion) in additional rescue loans.

             Papandreou, addressing Socialist members of parliament Monday,
             also said he would seek a vote of confidence in parliament.

             His Socialist government has seen its majority reduced to just
             three seats in parliament and its approval ratings plummet amid
             harsh austerity measures that are likely to send the country
             into a fourth year of recession in 2012.

             Papandreou calls for referendum in Greece
             Mon, Oct 31 2011, 18:18 GMT | FXstreet.com
             http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=5ede6cce-fa68-4d8a-a580-14808203a3ad

             FXstreet.com (CA^3rdoba) a** The Prime Minister of Greece,
             George Papandreou called for a referendum to ask whether to
             accept the new bailout or not. He said he will call for a vote
             of confidence and rejected elections.

             It was reported also that the PM mentioned that the government
             may need to nationalize some banks in order to recapitalized
             them. After a period of time the banks would be privatized.

             Papandreou Says EU Decisions Will Relieve Greece of Debt Burden
             October 31, 2011, 1:43 PM EDT
             http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-31/papandreou-says-eu-decisions-will-relieve-greece-of-debt-burden.html

             Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou
             said the country had secured a a**historic decisiona** at last
             weeka**s summit of European Union leaders that will allow Greece
             to a**look to our futurea** with less uncertainty.

             a**The EU summit decisions open up a new era for Europe and a
             new era for Greece,a** Papandreou said in comments to ruling
             party lawmakers in Athens televised on state-run Vouli TV today.
             The decisions taken by EU leaders early on Oct. 27 will reduce
             Greecea**s debt by about 100 billion euros, Papandreou said.

             To contact the reporter on this story: Marcus Bensasson in
             Athens at mbensasson@bloomberg.net

             Papandreou Says Greek Elections to be Held in 2013 as Scheduled
             October 31, 2011, 1:55 PM EDT
             http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-31/papandreou-says-greek-elections-to-be-held-in-2013-as-scheduled.html

             Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou
             said his government faced a challenge to exploit the window of
             opportunity provided by the decisions taken last week by
             European Union leaders on a second financing package for the
             country.

             Papandreou said the priority was to a**lock ina** the decisions
             of the summit. He said elections would be held as scheduled in
             2013. He spoke in Athens in comments televised live on state-run
             Vouli TV.

             On 10/31/11 1:22 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

               Greece to call referendum on new EU aid deal

               http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/31/us-greece-referendum-idUSTRE79U5PQ20111031

               ATHENS | Mon Oct 31, 2011 2:09pm EDT
               (Reuters) - The Greek government will hold a referendum on a
               new EU aid package, calling on voters to say whether they want
               to adopt it or not, Prime Minister George Papandreou said on
               Monday.

               \"We trust citizens, we believe in their judgment, we believe
               in their decision,\" he told ruling socialist party lawmakers.

               Nearly 60 percent of Greeks view Thursday's EU summit
               agreement on a new 130 billion euro bailout package as
               negative or probably negative, a survey showed on Saturday.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-01 03:06:32",1,"2012-02-29 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/170037_re-more-g3-b3-greece-greece-to-call-referendum-on-new-eu-aid.html","zeihan@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
170561,"[alpha] INSIGHT - GREECE - nat gas/oil producer;
	dollar bloc? - OCH007
","   SOURCE: OCH007
   ATTRIBUTION: Old China Hand
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Well connected financial source
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: I really can't judge this one.  I know he is well
   connected in general but also speaks to some crackpots as well.
   SPECIAL HANDLING: none
   SOURCE HANDLER: Meredith/Jen

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-04 19:50:37",1,"2012-03-01 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/170561_-alpha-insight-greece-nat-gas-oil-producer-dollar-bloc.html","marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com","attach/14/14029_msg-21776-22574.png
attach/14/14030_msg-21776-22575.png"
170773,"Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta conflict in
	context
","   He has long been pegged as a Zeta supporter in the Mexican Media and even
   the LA Times. There are videos all over Youtube that say he's a crook.
    
   From: Marko Primorac <marko.primorac@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Date: Tue, 1 Nov 2011 17:25:49 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict in context
   Great stuff -- I guess one thing you may want to maybe that no legal
   action has been taken against Rosario Torres to date over the Anonymous
   posting.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Matt Mawhinney\" <matt.mawhinney@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 5:16:18 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   One comment in blue. 

   On 11/1/11 4:51 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     also i don't think widget is the appropriate term - script maybe?
     protocol? kevin might actually know the technical term.

     On 11/1/11 4:48 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       I think it might be good to mention what was said in the dispatch
       discussion: that this is a brand new type of cyber attack against
       cartels, exposing rather than intel collection and disruption, which
       is what government agencies do.

       On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

          Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

         On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a
         message to the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing
         with its campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
         governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

          

         The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
         proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It
         also urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct
         physical pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase
         Guy Fawkes masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or
         physical world activities.  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic
         conspirator who was involved in a plot to bomb the British
         Parliament in 1605, and who has become somewhat of an Anarchist icon
         in the United Kingdom. The British celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each
         year on Nov. 5, and the day has special meaning for the anarchists. 
         Not incorrect but the use of the Guy Fawkes mask as the face of Anon
         stems from the graphic novel and subsequent Hollywood movie V for
         Vendetta.

          

         It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous
         set Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous
         associate who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The
         Anonymous associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous
         leaflet campaign called Operation Paperstorm.

          

         The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los
         Zetas, dubbed \"# OpCartel\" I am not sure if the hashtag is not just
         the twitter handle, should be checked is dangerous and noted that
         the collective would be assembling a hand-picked group of known and
         trusted associates to participate in a special task force to execute
         the operation. It asked supporters to use a software widget they had
         developed in order to anonymously pass information pertaining to
         drug trafficking to the task force, which will then distribute it. 

          

         With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous
         not backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would
         be useful to provide some context to the present conflict between
         Anonymous and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential
         implications.

          

         Context

          

         First it issignificant to understand that the epicenter of this
         event is Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place over the past
         few months in terms of Mexico's cartel wars. The port city also
         serves as a critical transportation hub for the narcotics smuggling
         activities of the Los Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor has
         identified Veracruz as [link
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
         ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the
         Los Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

          

         One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
         cartel's push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
         ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
         Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of
         over 50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On
         Oct. 25, Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, \"El
         Bam Bam,\" who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that
         in Veracruz at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from
         both the Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

          

         Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective
         begin to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what
         Anonymous saw as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas
         cartel, they launched Operation Paperstorm, in which activists
         associated with the Anonymous collective distributed leaflets
         throughout Veracruz claiming the state government supports Los
         Zetas.  They conducted major leaflet distributions on Aug. 13, 20,
         and 29. They also released videos to the internet on Aug. 26 and 29,
         condemning the State of Veracruz. (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous
         video, Los Zetas allegedly kidnapped one of the activists involved
         in Operation Paperstorm.)

          

         Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting
         the stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and
         their bodies hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo,
         Tamaulipas state.  Signs left with the bodies signified that Los
         Zetas had killed the pair because they had posted information
         pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs that specialize in reporting on the
         Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the body of Marisol Macias Casteneda
         was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo Laredo.   Macias who worked
         for a local newspaper allegedly posted on cartel blogs using the
         nickname \"Laredo Girl.\" A message found with her body noted that she
         was killed by Los Zetas due to her online activities.

          

         Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility
         for a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against
         the official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was
         killed by Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their
         attack on the Veracruz state website was because of the death of
         Laredo Girl.

          

         It is also important to recognize that Anonymous was also unhappy
         with the State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to
         prosecute two individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on
         Twitter on Aug. 25. The false reports alleged that a group of
         children had been abducted from a Veracruz school and the panic
         caused by the report allegedly resulted in some two dozen traffic
         accidents as terrified parents rushed to the school to check o n
         their children. The so-called \"twitter terrorists\" were initially
         charged with offenses that could have carried a 30-year sentence.
         Anonymous, which has absolute freedom of speech on the internet as
         one of its foundational principles, took umbrage with this stiff
         penalty for the Twitter case - especially because it stood in stark
         contrast with the impunity many cartel figures enjoy in Mexico. 

          

          

         Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous
         threatened Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous
         activist, Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the
         approaching Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
         ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

          

         Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a
         great deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very
         interesting response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast
         that it is a collective of people and not an organization.  As some
         Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
         accounts, suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a
         hoax and claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other
         activists suggested that the campaign should be suspended. Still
         other activists became more strident and determined in their posts,
         urging that the campaign continue. Since Anonymous is a collective,
         activists can pick and choose which actions they will participate
         in. that means in his case that those activists who want to refrain
         from the campaign will and those who want to participate will
         continue it.

          

         This will to continue was manifested on Oct. 29, the personal
         website of Gustavo RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the
         Mexican state of Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from
         Anonymous Mexico stating that Rosario was aZeta -  It was also
         reflected in the tone of the Oct. 31 message. Some activists
         associated with Anonymous clearly feel compelled to continue with
         the campaign due to the outpouring of public support they received
         in the wake of the media coverage. According to the Oct 31. Video
         statement:

          

         \"we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as
         the voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are
         on the side of the people, and we cannot let down the people,
         especially in critical moments like the one they currently live in.\"

          

         We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue
         the campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

          

         Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
         better than Star Trek)  Star Wars III-IV are, the rest don't exist
         in my book.

          

         The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
         place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and
         even degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them
         torturing, executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They
         also frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them. 
         As demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in
         September, Los Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary
         capability to trace online activity to people in thephysical world.
         It is not known if they employ their own team of dedicated cyber
         experts or if they rely on sources within the Mexican government -
         although the most likely answer is probably a little of both. 

          

          

         In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
         following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK
         have arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who
         allegedly participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested
         dozens of activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted
         against the Turkish government for its efforts to establish a
         national internet filtering system.

          

         Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts
         lightly. Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that
         will damage Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this
         group has decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in
         some sort of response. The big question is: do theypossess the
         capability to effectively trace the organizers of the
         Anonymousaction against them?

          

         One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is
         intentionally amorphous - it is also as transnational as the
         internet, and it would not be surprising if many of those chosen to
         participate in the operation against Los Zetas are located outside
         of Mexico in locations such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside
         the immediate reach of Los Zetas.

          

         But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way. 
         If Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an
         internet cafe, behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads,
         it will be very difficult to prove that they were not  associated
         with  Anonymous.  As Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is
         dangerous business.

          

          

         The Big Picture

          

         One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way
         in which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican
         middle and upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal
         cartels and theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in
         Mexico who are fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities,
         especially places like Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz,
         businessmen are being caught in a terrible bind. On one hand, they
         are receiving ever-increasing extortion demands from the cartels,
         while at the same time their business revenues are dwindling because
         people are afraid to go out due to the violence associated with
         those same cartels. This is forcing many businessmen out of
         business. It is also creating a great deal of frustration and
         resentment.

          

         At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous
         countries in the world for journalists, and many media companies
         practice heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of
         the September blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog
         del Narco, have also exhibited strong signs of fear inspired
         self-censorship.   This means that the legitimate press is not able
         to be of any real aid to the Mexican people.

          

         Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
         well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymous'
         original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some
         people to begin to talk about

         vigilante groups to fight the cartels - though that has been
         attempted before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
         ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
         group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

          

         This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to
         rely on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups
         for assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form
         of cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a
         safe way to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If
         this occurs, we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta
         controlled areas providing information to Anonymous, but citizens
         from all over the country.

          

         Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in
         an effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also
         very well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information
         on Los Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more
         reason for Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.
         Eventually Anonymous could turn their sites on the other cartels. I
         wonder if the other cartels are thinking of Anonymous more as a
         potential threat/annoyance or a way to weaken the Zetas. Probably  a
         little bit of both at this point.

          

         If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
         Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
         releasing sensitive information to the U.S. Drug Enforcement
         Administration in an attempt to damage Los Zetas. This would be an
         incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous has viewed itself as
         an opponent of the U.S. government in cases like Wikileaks. 

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Matt Mawhinney
 ADP
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: 512.744.4300 A| M: 267.972.2609 A| F: 512.744.4334
 www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-02 01:51:45",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/170773_re-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs-zeta.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
170777,"Re: G3/B3* - GREECE - Papa speech: rejects snap elections,
	doesn't resign	and still defends referendum
","   Its not whether or not its a good idea. Its whether any government can
   govern if it capitulates to the eu without a referendum. When the cost
   hits home and there was neither an election nor a referendum the public
   could destroy the political elite and make greece ungovernable.

   This is an agonizing deal for the public. Papa is desperately searching
   for a way to get the public buy in without suspension of aid by the eu.

   He is in a terrible spot and I see no exit for him. He will be crushed by
   default now or by an enraged public in a few weeks.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 4 Nov 2011 19:03:46 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: G3/B3* - GREECE - Papa speech: rejects snap elections,
   doesn't resign and still defends referendum
   But the original point is that he maintains the referendum was a good
   idea... for him. No contest on it being irrelevant at this point.

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Nov 4, 2011, at 19:01, Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   wrote:

     I don't think the referendum idea came from extraneous forces but was a
     misguided attempt to discharge responsibility. As you said, the
     pressures on P are EU and domestic, the referendum came from neither.
     Therefore, id there is one thing he knows he will do it's NOT having a
     referendum.

     Sent from my iPhone
     On Nov 4, 2011, at 18:56, \"George Friedman\"
     <friedman@att.blackberry.net> wrote:

       He doesn't know what he will do. He is riding the tiger caught between
       the eu leadership and the public. Pay no attention to what he wants
       and pay attention to the forces on him. We've seen him whirling like a
       dervish for days.

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
       Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Fri, 4 Nov 2011 18:43:56 -0500 (CDT)
       To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
       ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
       Subject: Re: G3/B3* - GREECE - Papa speech: rejects snap elections,
       doesn't resign and still defends referendum
       If Peter meant that Papa still thinks the referendum was the best idea
       I agree with him. If he means papa is still thinking of doing it in
       the future I'm with Kristen.
       Sent from my iPhone
       On Nov 4, 2011, at 17:58, Kristen Cooper <kristen.cooper@stratfor.com>
       wrote:

         I don't think that is what he said. He spent most the time
         explaining why he called it in the first place but not still having
         it.

         Kristen Cooper
         512.619.9414
         On Nov 4, 2011, at 18:53, Peter Zeihan <zeihan@stratfor.com> wrote:

           I mean papa is still saying that's his plan

           On Nov 4, 2011, at 5:41 PM, Kristen Cooper
           <kristen.cooper@stratfor.com> wrote:

             I really don't think the referendum is still on. He gave that up
             awhile ago. There is NO way he would win a confidence vote if
             people thought he was still going to call a referendum
             On Nov 4, 2011, at 6:23 PM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

               Still on the referendum
               Awesome
               On Nov 4, 2011, at 5:10 PM, Marc Lanthemann
               <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com> wrote:

                 nothing exciting or historic

                 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8846201/Debt-crisis-live.html

                 21.58 Papandreou closes his speech, rejecting talk of snap
                 elections:

                 We need to be level-headed. We are managing a crisis. We
                 need to strengthen democratic institutions or we will wound
                 democracy. We must be organised and Greece must be governed
                 without interuption. We require level-headedness, not
                 frenzy. Political parties which are going to be
                 collaborating cannot be a government on a status quo that is
                 dying.

                 What i want is to operate for today and tomorrow but not for
                 yesterday. Let's go for the citizens of Greece, for a
                 country that can be proud and dignified. I want to remind
                 foreign leaders that they should have belief in the Greek
                 people. This country is made of hard stuff and the country
                 does what it is meant to do.

                 I ask for a vote of confidence so our country has a
                 government to take necessary steps of security over the next
                 few months. The country supercedes all of us. United, we can
                 go forward.

                 21.43 More humble talk from Mr Papandreou:
                 I did not see politics as profession. I can contribute to
                 general good. When I am under criticism i want to send a
                 clear message, I hope my actions can bring about a different
                 culture in political life of the country and media and
                 citizens.

                 21.41 He opens the door for a coalition government to be
                 formed.

                 21.40 Mr Papandreou insists he is not \"clinging to power\".
                 He says he is not interested in that. The floor claps.

                 21.37 More from Mr Papandreou:

                 I broke a taboo with the referendum [...] Going against the
                 norm was for the benefit of Greece. We do have differences,
                 but we also see priorities of countries and these can best
                 be served with collaborations.
                 A transitional government would mean catastrophe. This
                 should not happen. Snap elections would mean the bail-out
                 would be up in the air.

                 21.35 He says early elections would be a \"catastrophe\".

                 21.29 Mr Papandreou continues:
                 It is in the interest of the Greek nation, this bailout. I
                 am curious how all oppositions oppose this. What did they
                 fear? Rejection by greek people of bailout?
                 [The referendum] was a democratic decision which shook the
                 markets.
                 But we the Greek nation exists which finally must decide.
                 Many on the right and on the left said we were bothering our
                 partners, and therefore there was hypocracy abound.
                 [So] yes financial markets exist, but first of all people
                 exist.

                 21.17 Mr Papandreou asks Parliament for greater
                 collaboration and cooperation. He says:
                 The bailout allows us to write-off a large part of our debt
                 in the next few months [it] permits us to give the energy to
                 build a Greece of growth.

                 Greek people, There is no problem with your deposits in the
                 banks because of the bailout. They are even more guaranteed
                 with us in the eurozone.

                 [...] This bailout is tremendous opportunity to rebuild
                 country on new foundations.

                 Papandreou steps up to address the Greek parliament on
                 Fridsy (Photo: AP)

                 21.12 There are shades of the British Commons as George
                 Papandreou finally takes the mic. He blames the previous
                 government for multiplying the debt and the a**tragic
                 mistakesa** that have been made. He adds:
                 We are living through a new trial, and some of us wish to
                 forget what has happened in the past.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-05 01:09:25",1,"2012-02-29 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/170777_re-g3-b3-greece-papa-speech-rejects-snap-elections-doesn-t.html","friedman@att.blackberry.net","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
170819,"Re: G3/B3* - GREECE - Papa speech: rejects snap elections,
	doesn't resign	and still defends referendum
","   But then why didn't we see a more widespread public support for the
   referendum? If anything the Greeks were relieved to not have to vote on
   the issue. 
   To expand on a popular metaphor from the FT, the Greeks know they're sick,
   don't want the medicine but also no one  wants to be the one to refuse it.
   Agree that P is screwed anyway.
   Sent from my iPhone
   On Nov 4, 2011, at 19:09, \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
   wrote:

     Its not whether or not its a good idea. Its whether any government can
     govern if it capitulates to the eu without a referendum. When the cost
     hits home and there was neither an election nor a referendum the public
     could destroy the political elite and make greece ungovernable.

     This is an agonizing deal for the public. Papa is desperately searching
     for a way to get the public buy in without suspension of aid by the eu.

     He is in a terrible spot and I see no exit for him. He will be crushed
     by default now or by an enraged public in a few weeks.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
     Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 4 Nov 2011 19:03:46 -0500 (CDT)
     To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: G3/B3* - GREECE - Papa speech: rejects snap elections,
     doesn't resign and still defends referendum
     But the original point is that he maintains the referendum was a good
     idea... for him. No contest on it being irrelevant at this point.

     Sent from my iPhone
     On Nov 4, 2011, at 19:01, Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
     wrote:

       I don't think the referendum idea came from extraneous forces but was
       a misguided attempt to discharge responsibility. As you said, the
       pressures on P are EU and domestic, the referendum came from neither.
       Therefore, id there is one thing he knows he will do it's NOT having a
       referendum.

       Sent from my iPhone
       On Nov 4, 2011, at 18:56, \"George Friedman\"
       <friedman@att.blackberry.net> wrote:

         He doesn't know what he will do. He is riding the tiger caught
         between the eu leadership and the public. Pay no attention to what
         he wants and pay attention to the forces on him. We've seen him
         whirling like a dervish for days.

         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
         Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
         Date: Fri, 4 Nov 2011 18:43:56 -0500 (CDT)
         To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
         ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
         Subject: Re: G3/B3* - GREECE - Papa speech: rejects snap elections,
         doesn't resign and still defends referendum
         If Peter meant that Papa still thinks the referendum was the best
         idea I agree with him. If he means papa is still thinking of doing
         it in the future I'm with Kristen.
         Sent from my iPhone
         On Nov 4, 2011, at 17:58, Kristen Cooper
         <kristen.cooper@stratfor.com> wrote:

           I don't think that is what he said. He spent most the time
           explaining why he called it in the first place but not still
           having it.

           Kristen Cooper
           512.619.9414
           On Nov 4, 2011, at 18:53, Peter Zeihan <zeihan@stratfor.com>
           wrote:

             I mean papa is still saying that's his plan

             On Nov 4, 2011, at 5:41 PM, Kristen Cooper
             <kristen.cooper@stratfor.com> wrote:

               I really don't think the referendum is still on. He gave that
               up awhile ago. There is NO way he would win a confidence vote
               if people thought he was still going to call a referendum
               On Nov 4, 2011, at 6:23 PM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

                 Still on the referendum
                 Awesome
                 On Nov 4, 2011, at 5:10 PM, Marc Lanthemann
                 <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com> wrote:

                   nothing exciting or historic

                   http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8846201/Debt-crisis-live.html

                   21.58 Papandreou closes his speech, rejecting talk of snap
                   elections:

                   We need to be level-headed. We are managing a crisis. We
                   need to strengthen democratic institutions or we will
                   wound democracy. We must be organised and Greece must be
                   governed without interuption. We require level-headedness,
                   not frenzy. Political parties which are going to be
                   collaborating cannot be a government on a status quo that
                   is dying.

                   What i want is to operate for today and tomorrow but not
                   for yesterday. Let's go for the citizens of Greece, for a
                   country that can be proud and dignified. I want to remind
                   foreign leaders that they should have belief in the Greek
                   people. This country is made of hard stuff and the country
                   does what it is meant to do.

                   I ask for a vote of confidence so our country has a
                   government to take necessary steps of security over the
                   next few months. The country supercedes all of us. United,
                   we can go forward.

                   21.43 More humble talk from Mr Papandreou:
                   I did not see politics as profession. I can contribute to
                   general good. When I am under criticism i want to send a
                   clear message, I hope my actions can bring about a
                   different culture in political life of the country and
                   media and citizens.

                   21.41 He opens the door for a coalition government to be
                   formed.

                   21.40 Mr Papandreou insists he is not \"clinging to power\".
                   He says he is not interested in that. The floor claps.

                   21.37 More from Mr Papandreou:

                   I broke a taboo with the referendum [...] Going against
                   the norm was for the benefit of Greece. We do have
                   differences, but we also see priorities of countries and
                   these can best be served with collaborations.
                   A transitional government would mean catastrophe. This
                   should not happen. Snap elections would mean the bail-out
                   would be up in the air.

                   21.35 He says early elections would be a \"catastrophe\".

                   21.29 Mr Papandreou continues:
                   It is in the interest of the Greek nation, this bailout. I
                   am curious how all oppositions oppose this. What did they
                   fear? Rejection by greek people of bailout?
                   [The referendum] was a democratic decision which shook the
                   markets.
                   But we the Greek nation exists which finally must decide.
                   Many on the right and on the left said we were bothering
                   our partners, and therefore there was hypocracy abound.
                   [So] yes financial markets exist, but first of all people
                   exist.

                   21.17 Mr Papandreou asks Parliament for greater
                   collaboration and cooperation. He says:
                   The bailout allows us to write-off a large part of our
                   debt in the next few months [it] permits us to give the
                   energy to build a Greece of growth.

                   Greek people, There is no problem with your deposits in
                   the banks because of the bailout. They are even more
                   guaranteed with us in the eurozone.

                   [...] This bailout is tremendous opportunity to rebuild
                   country on new foundations.

                   Papandreou steps up to address the Greek parliament on
                   Fridsy (Photo: AP)

                   21.12 There are shades of the British Commons as George
                   Papandreou finally takes the mic. He blames the previous
                   government for multiplying the debt and the a**tragic
                   mistakesa** that have been made. He adds:
                   We are living through a new trial, and some of us wish to
                   forget what has happened in the past.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-05 01:20:12",1,"2012-02-29 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/170819_re-g3-b3-greece-papa-speech-rejects-snap-elections-doesn-t.html","marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,friedman@att.blackberry.net",""
171808,"Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta conflict
	in context
","   Just to build on my last comment - and I think this should be included in
   the piece - the cartels could just as easily try to intimidate would be
   sources ratting to anonymous as intimidate bloggers. Imagine if, after
   anonymous publishes a few juicy tidbits, Zetas hang a few headless bodies
   from a bridge accusing them of contributing to anonymous? True or not,
   cartels can intimidate both sides of the information flow and the sources
   may be more vulnerable than anonymous themselves.

   Still think a discussion of Anonymous and source handling would be pretty
   cool.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Ben West\" <ben.west@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 5:42:42 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 4:45:43 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

      Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

     On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a message to
     the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing with its
     campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
     governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

      

     The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
     proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It also
     urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct physical
     pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy Fawkes
     masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or physical world
     activities.[Is this universally or just in Mexico?  The former points to
     problems with LE cracking down on them, the latter specifically to
     cartel retribution]  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic conspirator who was
     involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament in 1605, and who has
     become somewhat of an Anarchist icon in the United Kingdom. The British
     celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each year on Nov. 5, and the day has special
     meaning for the anarchists.  

      

     It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous set
     Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous associate
     who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The Anonymous
     associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign
     called Operation Paperstorm.

      

     The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,
     dubbed a**# OpCartela** is dangerous and noted that the collective would
     be assembling a hand-picked group of known and trusted associates to
     participate in a special task force to execute the operation.[hahahaha,
     this says something about leadership] It asked supporters to use a
     software widget[WC. is this the correct term?] they had developed in
     order to anonymously pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to
     the task force, which will then distribute it. 

      

     With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not
     backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be
     useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous
     and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential implications.

      

     Context

      

     First it issignificant to understand that the physical? geographic?
     epicenter of this event is Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place
     over the past few months in terms of Mexicoa**s cartel wars. The port
     city also serves as a critical transportation hub for the narcotics
     smuggling activities of the Los Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor
     has identified Veracruz as [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
     ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the Los
     Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

      

     One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
     cartela**s push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
     ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
     Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of over
     50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On Oct. 25,
     Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, a**El Bam
     Bam,a** who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that in
     Veracruz at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from both
     the Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

      

     Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective begin
     to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what Anonymous saw
     as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas cartel, they launched
     Operation Paperstorm, in which activists who associated themselves with
     the Anonymous collective distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz
     claiming the state government supports Los Zetas.  They conducted major
     leaflet distributions on Aug. 13, 20, and 29. They also released videos
     to the internet on Aug. 26 and 29, condemning the State of Veracruz.
     (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous video, Los Zetas allegedly kidnapped
     one of the activists involved in Operation Paperstorm.)

      

     Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting the
     stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and their bodies
     hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state.  Signs
     left with the bodies signified that Los Zetas had killed the pair
     because they had posted information pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs
     that specialize in reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the
     body of Marisol Macias Casteneda was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo
     Laredo.   Macias who worked for a local newspaper allegedly posted on
     cartel blogs using the nickname a**Laredo Girl.a** A message found with
     her body noted that she was killed by Los Zetas due to her online
     activities.

      

     Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for
     a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against the
     official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was killed by
     Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their attack on the
     Veracruz state website was because of the death of Laredo Girl. [can you
     attempt to explain why they linked it with veracruz?]

      

     It is also important to recognize that some members of Anonymous [again
     I hate referring to Anonymous as one entity] was also unhappy with the
     State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to prosecute two
     individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug.
     25. The false reports alleged that a group of children had been abducted
     from a Veracruz school and the panic caused by the report allegedly
     resulted in some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed
     to the school to check o n their children. The so-called a**twitter
     terroristsa** were initially charged with offenses that could have
     carried a 30-year sentence. Those involved in this campaign from
     Anonymous, which claims absolute freedom of speech on the internet as
     one of its foundational principles, took umbrage with this stiff penalty
     for the Twitter case a** especially because it stood in stark contrast
     with the impunity many cartel figures enjoy in Mexico. 

      

      

     Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous threatened
     Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous activist,
     Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the approaching
     Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
     ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

      

     Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a great
     deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very interesting
     response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast that it is a
     collective of people and not an organization.  As some
     Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
     accounts[does this mean accounts of people in support of the attack?],
     suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a hoax and
     claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other activists suggested
     that the campaign should be suspended. Still other activists became more
     strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign
     continue. Since Anonymous is a collective, activists can pick and choose
     which actions they will participate in. that means in his case that
     those activists who want to refrain from the campaign will and those who
     want to participate will continue it.  [i see how this paragraph fits
     into your analysis the way you have it written, but I think it might go
     better at the front.  You could use the 'anonymous discussion' as a
     trigger, explain it's \"collective\" qualities and then go into the rest
     of the analysis.  This way I feel much less bad about how we refer to
     'anonymous']

      

     This will to continue was manifested[something is off in the previous
     part of the sentence] on Oct. 29, the personal website of Gustavo
     RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the Mexican state of
     Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from Anonymous Mexico
     stating that Rosario was aZeta.  It was also reflected in the tone of
     the Oct. 31 message. Some activists associated with Anonymous clearly
     feel compelled to continue with the campaign due to the outpouring[WC. 
     Did they really get an outpouring? seemed like they got a lot of
     criticism and also support for going against the cartels] of public
     support they received in the wake of the media coverage. According to
     the Oct 31. Video statement: (did we see specific examples of \"public
     support\" or are we just going off of the youtube statement CLAIMING that
     they got lots of support?)

      

     a**we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the
     voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the
     side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in
     critical moments like the one they currently live in.a**

      

     We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the
     campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

      

     Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
     better than Star Trek. What's Star Trek?) 

      

     The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
     place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even
     degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them torturing,
     executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They also
     frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them.  As
     demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in September, Los
     Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary capability to trace
     online activity to people in thephysical world. It is not known if they
     employ their own team of dedicated cyber experts or if they rely on
     sources within the Mexican government a** although the most likely
     answer is probably a little of both.  [what about just old-fashioned
     human intelligence?  Many people discuss blogger identities both online
     and offline, something they could've picked up without network-based
     forensics.  'My brother blogs about...' and on from there.  Or by
     tracing the information the blogger had in the real world, and
     eventually getting back to the blogger]

   Tristan was talking about how the cartels were even kidnapping computer
   science students and forcing them to track anonymous down. Need to check
   with him on specifics though

      

      

     In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
     following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK have
     arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly
     participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of
     activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted against the Turkish
     government for its efforts to establish a national internet filtering
     system. [Need something to make a point here, maybe something like:] 
     The reality is that there is no such thing as anonymity, on the internet
     or otherwise.  Any action leaves some trail, whether digitial or
     physical.  In the same way that hackers from Anonymous develop exploits
     to access confidential information, law enforcement agencies and even
     cartels could get around encryption, examine patterns of activity and
     investigate leads that in the end identify a real person behind a
     computer. 

      

     Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts lightly.
     Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that will damage
     Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this group has
     decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in some sort of
     response. The big question is: do theypossess the capability to
     effectively trace the organizers of the Anonymousaction against them?

      

     One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is intentionally
     amorphous a** it is also as transnational as the internet, and it would
     not be surprising if many of those chosen to participate in the
     operation against Los Zetas are located outside of Mexico in locations
     such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside the immediate reach of Los
     Zetas.(the US is not out of reach, at least not on the border:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111005-mexico-security-memo-defining-cross-border-violence)

      

     But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way.  If
     Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an internet cafe,
     behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads, it will be very
     difficult to prove that they were not  associated with  Anonymous.  As
     Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is dangerous business.(it
     would certainly be within the cartel's capacity to kill innocents and
     blame anonymous in the attempt to intimidate them into stopping their
     activity)

      

      

     The Big Picture

      

     One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way in
     which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican middle and
     upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal cartels and
     theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in Mexico who are
     fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like
     Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen are being caught in
     a terrible bind. On one hand, they are receiving ever-increasing
     extortion demands from the cartels, while at the same time their
     business revenues are dwindling because people are afraid to go out due
     to the violence associated with those same cartels. This is forcing many
     businessmen[enterprises?] out of business. It is also creating a great
     deal of frustration and resentment.

      

     At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries
     in the world for journalists, and many media organizations practice
     heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the
     September blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog del Narco,
     have also exhibited strong signs of fear inspired self-censorship.  
     This means that the legitimate press is not able to be of any real aid
     to the Mexican people.

      

     Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
     well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymousa**
     original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some people to
     begin to talk about

     vigilante groups to fight the cartels a** though that has been attempted
     before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
     ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
     group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

      

     This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely
     on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for
     assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form of
     cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a perceived
     safe way to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If this
     occurs, we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta controlled
     areas providing information to Anonymous, but citizens from all over the
     country.

      

     Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in an
     effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also very
     well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information on Los
     Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more reason for
     Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.

      

     If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
     Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
     releasing sensitive information to the U.S. Drug Enforcement
     Administration in an attempt to damage Los Zetas. This would be an
     incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous has viewed itself as an
     opponent of the U.S. government in cases like Wikileaks. (Anonymous has
     made it clear that the value they provide is a safe and private medium
     through which to pass this damning information. Their stated priority is
     to publicize information that people send to them. But, do they have a
     way to protect their sources? They likely don't have much collective
     experience in source handling. I imagine a lot of the details they get
     could put their sources in serious trouble. If I were a semi-smart
     Mexican who knew some super detailed information on the cartels, I would
     think long and hard before handing it over to these guys. This may be a
     separate piece entirely, but I think we need a discussion on source
     handling and how good hackers don't necessarily make good intelligence
     agents.)

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   STRATFOR

   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967

   www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-01 23:46:55",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/171808_re-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs-zeta.html","ben.west@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
175366,"Fwd: Emre's new sources - Source update
","   Sources

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Meredith Friedman\" <mfriedman@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Emre Dogru\" <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>, \"scott stewart\"
   <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, December 22, 2010 4:45:51 PM
   Subject: RE: Emre's new sources - Source update

   Good job Emre - we'll send you to more conferences I think:)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Emre Dogru [mailto:emre.dogru@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, December 22, 2010 2:57 AM
   To: scott stewart; Meredith Friedman
   Subject: Emre's new sources - Source update
   Hey Meredith and Scott, I would like to give you a brief update about my
   new sources after the security conference that I attended this past
   weekend. (Meredith, I asked Scott to give me permission to attend this
   conference in November to expand my source network). List below does not
   include all new sources, but those who can and willing to cooperate. I
   believe these new sources will enhance our ability to gather information
   on technical issues such as energy, military and foreign trade.

   Cheers,
   Emre

   Source: One guy and one lady from Turkish State petroleum company (TPAO).
   Guy is an expert on energy security in the Middle East and the lady works
   on the Caucasus, Central Europe and Black Sea. They both are responsible
   for natural gas and oil.
   Status: They are really willing to cooperate and at the end of the
   conference we have a personal relationship. Will be exchanging views and
   information with them in the future. I am pretty confident that they will
   provide us valuable information. They also told me that they will talk to
   their superior this week to buy a Stratfor institutional subscription. I
   will let you know when I hear from them.

   Source: Expert in the Turkish army's strategic research center.
   Status: Willing to cooperate. Exchanged contact information. But I'm not
   sure about his qualifications.

   Source: Turkish air force official, head of strategic planning. He says he
   writes speech notes for air force commander when he attends national
   security council.
   Status: He was very willing to talk during lunch and dinner. He said he
   would be happy to provide information to me if I've questions.

   Source: Turkish diplomat at Turkish FM's NATO department.
   Status: Promised each other to exchange information. I know many people
   from NATO department but could get in touch with him if needed.

   Source: Expert in Undersecretary for Foreign Trade.
   Status: I didn't meet this guy at the security conference. I knew him from
   my undergraduate studies. We met in a reception at least five years ago. I
   had to get some information from foreign trade institution for a special
   report that I will be working this week. He  helped me to get in touch
   with people could answer my questions, who gave me tons of information for
   my research. They said I could ask them anything that I would like to know
   in the future.

   Source update: My main Kurdish source (TR 705), who informed us about PKK
   ceasefires three times in the past, has become a member of the Turkish
   main opposition party's (CHP) leadership as a result of the congress that
   was held this past weekend.

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-22 16:03:40",1,"2012-02-27 02:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/175366_fwd-emre-s-new-sources-source-update-.html","emre.dogru@stratfor.com","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com",""
177382,"Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
","   The thing about protests in Europe is that Europeans can protest like it's
   their job. Protests happen very frequently and security forces as well as
   politicians give protesters a very long leash. And typically, protesters
   remain peaceful in return. I don't know much about Spanish politics, but
   from watching tons of protests in Europe, I know that it would take a lot
   for any protests to rise to the level or effecting real political change.

   Tactically, these are the thing we want to pay attention to for protests:

   Where are the protests being held? Are the protesters wandering loosely
   around in the streets or are they tightly congealed in one central spot to
   show how massive they are for the cameramen? It sounds like the 15-M
   started figuring out in May that amassing your forces in one spot is a
   good tactic for force multiplication. Where is the largest public square
   in Madrid? Is it Puerta del Sol or is there another bigger one? Do we have
   pictures from those last protests to assess approximately how many people
   showed up?

   Is the pre-election rally ban a hard law on the books or is it just more
   of a tradition? Do police have the legal authority to break up protests
   leading up to the election or is it murky? How many days previous to the
   election is this ban in place? Have security forces given any indication
   of whether they will allow these protests or shut them down? Is there any
   precedent for breaking this ban?

   What do we know about 15-M? Do they have any mainstream political support?
   If they don't, who's in the best position to exploit the attention they
   could potentially grab with their protests?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Christoph Helbling\" <christoph.helbling@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Friday, November 11, 2011 8:02:28 AM
   Subject: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters

   There are just so many countries in Europe and each one could spark a new
   'little' European crisis.
   The scheduled Spanish protests next week caught my attention while a I was
   writing up the calendar. The protesters already have their square, what if
   a protester dies next week?
   (Might be taking it too far but still worth thinking about)

   Potential discussion:

   Six days before the Spanish general elections on Nov. 20 protesters plan
   to hold rallies at over 100 locations in Madrid, disrespecting the
   pre-election rally ban. On Twitter and Facebook, some activists called for
   a rally in the Puerta del Sol square on November 19, normally a day of
   \"reflection\" ahead of the vote, during which political action is usually
   banned.
   The a**indignantsa** or 15-M as the protesters call the movements, started
   their protests May 15 at Puerta del Sol square in Madrid protesting
   against state spending cuts, unemployment and corruption. The movement
   brought tens of thousands to the streets days before the local election
   May 22, and made headlines by maintaining protest camps at city squares
   around the country. It is a relatively well organized movement with the
   Asamblea Sol that acts as organizer (therefore different from the occupy
   movement). The 15-M movement was formed in reaction to Spain's high youth
   unemployment (46%!) and dire future prospects for the young.
   At first the movement was seen as too idealistic and heterogeneous, but it
   has recently been influencing the political discourse. The politicians
   are  trying to appeal to its supporters ahead of the parliamentary
   elections on November 20. The movements response to this is: \"If citizens
   should hear the parties' messages, it is also time for the parties to
   listen to the citizens from whom, we fear, they are so separated\"
   Over the last couple of weeks Spain hasna**t received a lot of attention
   because everybody concentrated on Greece and Italy. No outside officials
   have been applying pressure on Spain and therefore the protesters dona**t
   really blame outside forces for the miserable state the country finds
   itself in. The protesters are mostly young and feel misrepresented by the
   political elite. It is unlikely that the Spanish conservatives, who will
   probably win the elections, are able to incorporate the wishes of the
   youth that is protesting. Further, since the movements plan to disrespect
   rally bans it will be interesting to see how the authorities will react.
   Will they try to stop the protesters?
   So far the European crisis has been on a political and financial level,
   these protests could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain and spark to
   other countries. Are these protests going to breed the future leaders of
   Europe?

 --
 Christoph Helbling
 ADP
 STRATFOR
","2011-11-11 15:42:12",1,"2012-03-23 07:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/177382_re-discussion-spanish-protesters-.html","ben.west@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
177586,"Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
","   and so back to Christoph's original point, I think we really do need to be
   watching for emerging leaders in these protests who can play the populist
   card and present themselves as the savior from the elites.  this is the
   ideal environment for fresh ideologies and leaders to be born

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: friedman@att.blackberry.net, \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Friday, November 11, 2011 10:25:11 AM
   Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters

    Europeans aren't protesting the approval of a new EU constitutional
   amendment. They're protesting out of fear that they're going to lose the
   roof on their heads.  the more basic your demands, the more likely the
   protests will turn violent, and we can already see that the elites
   handling the crisis won't be able to manage this crisis in the end. the
   musical chairs we're seeing right now in the Greek and Italian governments
   is likely only the beginning. we have to see that as the manifestation of
   a much broader crisis in confidence, not on a national level, but on the
   european level.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
   To: \"Analysts Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Friday, November 11, 2011 10:14:24 AM
   Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters

   Europe has not had mass violent protests since the 1960s although it has
   had violence and terrorism. Its been quiet since the 1990s if you ignore
   yugoslavia.

   The europeans regard this new period as normal and the past as irrelevant.
   It seems to me that the radical shifts in structure returns europe to its
   prior state and with it mass violence becomes likely not just possible.
   Europe has a violent history and that history is not so long ago.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Colby Martin <colby.martin@stratfor.com>
   Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2011 10:10:30 -0600 (CST)
   To: <analysts@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
   I am not sure how you can argue European protesters are not going to turn
   to violence and the authorities won't resort to draconian measures to
   suppress them.  Right now the unemployed still have those nice little
   social programs (especially in Spain) to support them so I agree right now
   they should remain low key.  But if the gov't has to reduce those programs
   or cut them altogether, the protests could turn into bad in a hurry.  I
   just want to make sure this isn't the European argument that \"they\" are
   more civilized, therefore violence is a thing of the past. (I throw up in
   my mouth a little every time a European tells me this)

   On 11/11/11 9:51 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

     I see your point, but what i dont agree with is when we imply that
     protests that happened in Tunisia can be compared to possible future
     ones in Europe. the word protests is very different when you compare
     north africa and european nations. A protest during the Arab spring,
     implied death injured and so on. A protest in europe (i.e Italy and
     Spain) is just a march that isnt a big deal. Rome marches were the same,
     nothing happened despite the fact that the Media made a big deal out of
     literally burnt cars by punks.

     On 11/11/11 9:48 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

       You're changing the argument. Your assertion that things can't spread
       from country to country because they are based on national issues is
       flawed. You have similar economic conditions in almost every European
       country at the moment. The issues aren't the same as what existed in
       the Arab world last winter, and nor are the nature of the regimes in
       power. No one is saying that. What we're saying is that Tunisia
       provides an example of how protest movements have the ability to
       spread to other countries that feature similar socioeconomic
       conditions.

       On 11/11/11 9:38 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

         Protests in Egypt that spread all over the place were based on the
         ability of people to say what they want and be able to get a decent
         rule of law and government. In Europe we have that, unfortunately we
         have a shitty economy, the protests are there but are unrelated
         because each country has its own way to approach the economic
         issues. We wont kill each other like people in north Africa, were
         past that, and again no offense to people from the region. Europeans
         live for the most part in democracies, expressing a discontent
         (which is what is happening now) is different from fighting for your
         freedom (i.e Egypt, Tunisia, Libya)

         On 11/11/11 9:34 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

           Without wading into the particulars of this discussion, I will
           just say that your logic re: national protests not being able to
           spread to other countries is flawed. How were the gripes of
           Egyptians last January related to the national uprising in
           Tunisia? And so on.

           On 11/11/11 9:19 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

             I personally don't agree with this statement \"these protests
             could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain and spark to
             other countries\". What we have in Europe is NATIONAL protests.
             These protests focus on the NATIONAL parliament and cannot
             therefore spread in Europe. You might have them in several
             countries but i dont think they spread because they are
             unrelated (despite the same economic shitty background) Plus,
             protests of this kind are usually peaceful, there is a decent
             level of understanding within the crowds that protests that
             killing each other isn't going to make a difference. Now we
             might have like always the 20 idiots that ruin it for everyone
             (think of the Rome revolts) but i dont foresee any dead or
             injured people. Protests dont automatically imply \"bad\" events
             to come

             On 11/11/11 8:02 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

               these protests could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain
               and spark to other countries. Are these protests going to
               breed the future leaders of Europe?

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-03-23 07:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/177586_re-discussion-spanish-protesters-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com,friedman@att.blackberry.net",""
177614,"Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
","   violence is human nature. you dont \"learn\" how to stop it. you learn how
   to use a compass, you learn how to build a nuclear reactor, how to
   manufacture birth control. societies don't \"learn\" their way out of hate
   and fear of the unknown. humans have and will continue to react violently
   against it. urbanized intellectuals can be some of the most savage
   individuals when their systems break down. there is a very thin veil
   between civilization and savagery.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Carlos Lopez Portillo\" <carlos.lopezportillo@stratfor.com>
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Friday, November 11, 2011 10:23:28 AM
   Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters

   I agree in this one. Maybe they have learned from history, maybe they
   haven't, and will experience new things in a new developing world context,
   with more technology, communications, sort of global logic. Recent and
   historical events, as Bayless said, can have connections (1960s-1970s
   social movements), that's for granted (French Revolution ideas is a very
   good example). But I think that in this particular protest in Spain, it
   will be more a national type of unrest belonging to Spanish issues more
   than a viral-European one.

   On 11/11/11 10:14 AM, George Friedman wrote:

     Europe has not had mass violent protests since the 1960s although it has
     had violence and terrorism. Its been quiet since the 1990s if you ignore
     yugoslavia.

     The europeans regard this new period as normal and the past as
     irrelevant. It seems to me that the radical shifts in structure returns
     europe to its prior state and with it mass violence becomes likely not
     just possible. Europe has a violent history and that history is not so
     long ago.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Colby Martin <colby.martin@stratfor.com>
     Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2011 10:10:30 -0600 (CST)
     To: <analysts@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
     I am not sure how you can argue European protesters are not going to
     turn to violence and the authorities won't resort to draconian measures
     to suppress them.  Right now the unemployed still have those nice little
     social programs (especially in Spain) to support them so I agree right
     now they should remain low key.  But if the gov't has to reduce those
     programs or cut them altogether, the protests could turn into bad in a
     hurry.  I just want to make sure this isn't the European argument that
     \"they\" are more civilized, therefore violence is a thing of the past. (I
     throw up in my mouth a little every time a European tells me this)

     On 11/11/11 9:51 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

       I see your point, but what i dont agree with is when we imply that
       protests that happened in Tunisia can be compared to possible future
       ones in Europe. the word protests is very different when you compare
       north africa and european nations. A protest during the Arab spring,
       implied death injured and so on. A protest in europe (i.e Italy and
       Spain) is just a march that isnt a big deal. Rome marches were the
       same, nothing happened despite the fact that the Media made a big deal
       out of literally burnt cars by punks.

       On 11/11/11 9:48 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

         You're changing the argument. Your assertion that things can't
         spread from country to country because they are based on national
         issues is flawed. You have similar economic conditions in almost
         every European country at the moment. The issues aren't the same as
         what existed in the Arab world last winter, and nor are the nature
         of the regimes in power. No one is saying that. What we're saying is
         that Tunisia provides an example of how protest movements have the
         ability to spread to other countries that feature similar
         socioeconomic conditions.

         On 11/11/11 9:38 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

           Protests in Egypt that spread all over the place were based on the
           ability of people to say what they want and be able to get a
           decent rule of law and government. In Europe we have that,
           unfortunately we have a shitty economy, the protests are there but
           are unrelated because each country has its own way to approach the
           economic issues. We wont kill each other like people in north
           Africa, were past that, and again no offense to people from the
           region. Europeans live for the most part in democracies,
           expressing a discontent (which is what is happening now) is
           different from fighting for your freedom (i.e Egypt, Tunisia,
           Libya)

           On 11/11/11 9:34 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

             Without wading into the particulars of this discussion, I will
             just say that your logic re: national protests not being able to
             spread to other countries is flawed. How were the gripes of
             Egyptians last January related to the national uprising in
             Tunisia? And so on.

             On 11/11/11 9:19 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

               I personally don't agree with this statement \"these protests
               could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain and spark to
               other countries\". What we have in Europe is NATIONAL protests.
               These protests focus on the NATIONAL parliament and cannot
               therefore spread in Europe. You might have them in several
               countries but i dont think they spread because they are
               unrelated (despite the same economic shitty background) Plus,
               protests of this kind are usually peaceful, there is a decent
               level of understanding within the crowds that protests that
               killing each other isn't going to make a difference. Now we
               might have like always the 20 idiots that ruin it for everyone
               (think of the Rome revolts) but i dont foresee any dead or
               injured people. Protests dont automatically imply \"bad\" events
               to come

               On 11/11/11 8:02 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

                 these protests could lead to an open societal crisis in
                 Spain and spark to other countries. Are these protests going
                 to breed the future leaders of Europe?

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

 --
 Carlos Lopez Portillo M.
 ADP
 STRATFOR
 M: +1 512 814 9821
 www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-11 17:32:01",1,"2012-03-23 07:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/177614_re-discussion-spanish-protesters-.html","kevin.stech@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
177632,"Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
","   In the case of Spain I would like to reiterate the extremely artificial
   notion that is \"Spain\". The country has a particular brand of popular
   revolt, one that tends to degenerate into regionalism and/or anarchism.

   As the economic glue that binds the country dissolves with the euro
   crisis, it seems like we could be headed to a repeat of history - a
   succession of increasingly weak democratically elected yet inefficient
   governments in conjunction with the rise of fringe violent groups
   (especially separatists) that will prompt a strong backlash and the
   re-emergence of a heavier handed central government.

   Essentially Spain has always been bound as a nation by either money or
   fear - they don't have money anymore...

   On 11/11/11 10:31 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     and so back to Christoph's original point, I think we really do need to
     be watching for emerging leaders in these protests who can play the
     populist card and present themselves as the savior from the elites. 
     this is the ideal environment for fresh ideologies and leaders to be
     born

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
     To: friedman@att.blackberry.net, \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Friday, November 11, 2011 10:25:11 AM
     Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters

      Europeans aren't protesting the approval of a new EU constitutional
     amendment. They're protesting out of fear that they're going to lose the
     roof on their heads.  the more basic your demands, the more likely the
     protests will turn violent, and we can already see that the elites
     handling the crisis won't be able to manage this crisis in the end. the
     musical chairs we're seeing right now in the Greek and Italian
     governments is likely only the beginning. we have to see that as the
     manifestation of a much broader crisis in confidence, not on a national
     level, but on the european level.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
     To: \"Analysts Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Friday, November 11, 2011 10:14:24 AM
     Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters

     Europe has not had mass violent protests since the 1960s although it has
     had violence and terrorism. Its been quiet since the 1990s if you ignore
     yugoslavia.

     The europeans regard this new period as normal and the past as
     irrelevant. It seems to me that the radical shifts in structure returns
     europe to its prior state and with it mass violence becomes likely not
     just possible. Europe has a violent history and that history is not so
     long ago.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Colby Martin <colby.martin@stratfor.com>
     Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2011 10:10:30 -0600 (CST)
     To: <analysts@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
     I am not sure how you can argue European protesters are not going to
     turn to violence and the authorities won't resort to draconian measures
     to suppress them.  Right now the unemployed still have those nice little
     social programs (especially in Spain) to support them so I agree right
     now they should remain low key.  But if the gov't has to reduce those
     programs or cut them altogether, the protests could turn into bad in a
     hurry.  I just want to make sure this isn't the European argument that
     \"they\" are more civilized, therefore violence is a thing of the past. (I
     throw up in my mouth a little every time a European tells me this)

     On 11/11/11 9:51 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

       I see your point, but what i dont agree with is when we imply that
       protests that happened in Tunisia can be compared to possible future
       ones in Europe. the word protests is very different when you compare
       north africa and european nations. A protest during the Arab spring,
       implied death injured and so on. A protest in europe (i.e Italy and
       Spain) is just a march that isnt a big deal. Rome marches were the
       same, nothing happened despite the fact that the Media made a big deal
       out of literally burnt cars by punks.

       On 11/11/11 9:48 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

         You're changing the argument. Your assertion that things can't
         spread from country to country because they are based on national
         issues is flawed. You have similar economic conditions in almost
         every European country at the moment. The issues aren't the same as
         what existed in the Arab world last winter, and nor are the nature
         of the regimes in power. No one is saying that. What we're saying is
         that Tunisia provides an example of how protest movements have the
         ability to spread to other countries that feature similar
         socioeconomic conditions.

         On 11/11/11 9:38 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

           Protests in Egypt that spread all over the place were based on the
           ability of people to say what they want and be able to get a
           decent rule of law and government. In Europe we have that,
           unfortunately we have a shitty economy, the protests are there but
           are unrelated because each country has its own way to approach the
           economic issues. We wont kill each other like people in north
           Africa, were past that, and again no offense to people from the
           region. Europeans live for the most part in democracies,
           expressing a discontent (which is what is happening now) is
           different from fighting for your freedom (i.e Egypt, Tunisia,
           Libya)

           On 11/11/11 9:34 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

             Without wading into the particulars of this discussion, I will
             just say that your logic re: national protests not being able to
             spread to other countries is flawed. How were the gripes of
             Egyptians last January related to the national uprising in
             Tunisia? And so on.

             On 11/11/11 9:19 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

               I personally don't agree with this statement \"these protests
               could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain and spark to
               other countries\". What we have in Europe is NATIONAL protests.
               These protests focus on the NATIONAL parliament and cannot
               therefore spread in Europe. You might have them in several
               countries but i dont think they spread because they are
               unrelated (despite the same economic shitty background) Plus,
               protests of this kind are usually peaceful, there is a decent
               level of understanding within the crowds that protests that
               killing each other isn't going to make a difference. Now we
               might have like always the 20 idiots that ruin it for everyone
               (think of the Rome revolts) but i dont foresee any dead or
               injured people. Protests dont automatically imply \"bad\" events
               to come

               On 11/11/11 8:02 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

                 these protests could lead to an open societal crisis in
                 Spain and spark to other countries. Are these protests going
                 to breed the future leaders of Europe?

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-11 17:44:26",1,"2012-03-23 07:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/177632_re-discussion-spanish-protesters-.html","marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
177695,"Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
","   We are strictly talking about the idea of contagion, not the nature of the
   disease. It's like how in the First World, a really bad cough spreads
   around an office full of cubicle, and in Africa, people are spreading
   around HIV or Ebola or some other bad shit. There is still a contagion
   effect occuring, whether you're talking #firstworldproblems or
   #arabspring.

   Just trying to shoot down the incorrect notion that a \"national\" protest
   in Spain does not have the ability to inspire French, Italian, Greek,
   Belgian (ha!), Austrian, Portuguese, Irish, British, whoever else to do
   the same. Even if they are more civilized and inherently democratic by
   nature of their upbringing in a decadent society in which people speak
   multiple languages and only wave their respective flags during the World
   Cup, they still look around at what is happening in neighboring countries
   and get inspired.

   On 11/11/11 9:51 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

     I see your point, but what i dont agree with is when we imply that
     protests that happened in Tunisia can be compared to possible future
     ones in Europe. the word protests is very different when you compare
     north africa and european nations. A protest during the Arab spring,
     implied death injured and so on. A protest in europe (i.e Italy and
     Spain) is just a march that isnt a big deal. Rome marches were the same,
     nothing happened despite the fact that the Media made a big deal out of
     literally burnt cars by punks.

     On 11/11/11 9:48 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

       You're changing the argument. Your assertion that things can't spread
       from country to country because they are based on national issues is
       flawed. You have similar economic conditions in almost every European
       country at the moment. The issues aren't the same as what existed in
       the Arab world last winter, and nor are the nature of the regimes in
       power. No one is saying that. What we're saying is that Tunisia
       provides an example of how protest movements have the ability to
       spread to other countries that feature similar socioeconomic
       conditions.

       On 11/11/11 9:38 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

         Protests in Egypt that spread all over the place were based on the
         ability of people to say what they want and be able to get a decent
         rule of law and government. In Europe we have that, unfortunately we
         have a shitty economy, the protests are there but are unrelated
         because each country has its own way to approach the economic
         issues. We wont kill each other like people in north Africa, were
         past that, and again no offense to people from the region. Europeans
         live for the most part in democracies, expressing a discontent
         (which is what is happening now) is different from fighting for your
         freedom (i.e Egypt, Tunisia, Libya)

         On 11/11/11 9:34 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

           Without wading into the particulars of this discussion, I will
           just say that your logic re: national protests not being able to
           spread to other countries is flawed. How were the gripes of
           Egyptians last January related to the national uprising in
           Tunisia? And so on.

           On 11/11/11 9:19 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

             I personally don't agree with this statement \"these protests
             could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain and spark to
             other countries\". What we have in Europe is NATIONAL protests.
             These protests focus on the NATIONAL parliament and cannot
             therefore spread in Europe. You might have them in several
             countries but i dont think they spread because they are
             unrelated (despite the same economic shitty background) Plus,
             protests of this kind are usually peaceful, there is a decent
             level of understanding within the crowds that protests that
             killing each other isn't going to make a difference. Now we
             might have like always the 20 idiots that ruin it for everyone
             (think of the Rome revolts) but i dont foresee any dead or
             injured people. Protests dont automatically imply \"bad\" events
             to come

             On 11/11/11 8:02 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

               these protests could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain
               and spark to other countries. Are these protests going to
               breed the future leaders of Europe?

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701
","2011-11-11 17:01:07",1,"2012-03-23 07:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/177695_re-discussion-spanish-protesters-.html","bayless.parsley@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
177761,"Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
","   In some European countries most of the conditions are already there:

   - High rate of youth unemployment
   - Marginalized sectors of the population
   - Inability of the current political system to channel the discontent

   So far, Europeans have chosen the \"civilized path\": Punishing the
   government by voting for the opposition. The big question is what happens
   when the opposition is also incapable of solving problems.

   On 11/11/11 10:14 AM, George Friedman wrote:

     Europe has not had mass violent protests since the 1960s although it has
     had violence and terrorism. Its been quiet since the 1990s if you ignore
     yugoslavia.

     The europeans regard this new period as normal and the past as
     irrelevant. It seems to me that the radical shifts in structure returns
     europe to its prior state and with it mass violence becomes likely not
     just possible. Europe has a violent history and that history is not so
     long ago.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Colby Martin <colby.martin@stratfor.com>
     Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2011 10:10:30 -0600 (CST)
     To: <analysts@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
     I am not sure how you can argue European protesters are not going to
     turn to violence and the authorities won't resort to draconian measures
     to suppress them.  Right now the unemployed still have those nice little
     social programs (especially in Spain) to support them so I agree right
     now they should remain low key.  But if the gov't has to reduce those
     programs or cut them altogether, the protests could turn into bad in a
     hurry.  I just want to make sure this isn't the European argument that
     \"they\" are more civilized, therefore violence is a thing of the past. (I
     throw up in my mouth a little every time a European tells me this)

     On 11/11/11 9:51 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

       I see your point, but what i dont agree with is when we imply that
       protests that happened in Tunisia can be compared to possible future
       ones in Europe. the word protests is very different when you compare
       north africa and european nations. A protest during the Arab spring,
       implied death injured and so on. A protest in europe (i.e Italy and
       Spain) is just a march that isnt a big deal. Rome marches were the
       same, nothing happened despite the fact that the Media made a big deal
       out of literally burnt cars by punks.

       On 11/11/11 9:48 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

         You're changing the argument. Your assertion that things can't
         spread from country to country because they are based on national
         issues is flawed. You have similar economic conditions in almost
         every European country at the moment. The issues aren't the same as
         what existed in the Arab world last winter, and nor are the nature
         of the regimes in power. No one is saying that. What we're saying is
         that Tunisia provides an example of how protest movements have the
         ability to spread to other countries that feature similar
         socioeconomic conditions.

         On 11/11/11 9:38 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

           Protests in Egypt that spread all over the place were based on the
           ability of people to say what they want and be able to get a
           decent rule of law and government. In Europe we have that,
           unfortunately we have a shitty economy, the protests are there but
           are unrelated because each country has its own way to approach the
           economic issues. We wont kill each other like people in north
           Africa, were past that, and again no offense to people from the
           region. Europeans live for the most part in democracies,
           expressing a discontent (which is what is happening now) is
           different from fighting for your freedom (i.e Egypt, Tunisia,
           Libya)

           On 11/11/11 9:34 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

             Without wading into the particulars of this discussion, I will
             just say that your logic re: national protests not being able to
             spread to other countries is flawed. How were the gripes of
             Egyptians last January related to the national uprising in
             Tunisia? And so on.

             On 11/11/11 9:19 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

               I personally don't agree with this statement \"these protests
               could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain and spark to
               other countries\". What we have in Europe is NATIONAL protests.
               These protests focus on the NATIONAL parliament and cannot
               therefore spread in Europe. You might have them in several
               countries but i dont think they spread because they are
               unrelated (despite the same economic shitty background) Plus,
               protests of this kind are usually peaceful, there is a decent
               level of understanding within the crowds that protests that
               killing each other isn't going to make a difference. Now we
               might have like always the 20 idiots that ruin it for everyone
               (think of the Rome revolts) but i dont foresee any dead or
               injured people. Protests dont automatically imply \"bad\" events
               to come

               On 11/11/11 8:02 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

                 these protests could lead to an open societal crisis in
                 Spain and spark to other countries. Are these protests going
                 to breed the future leaders of Europe?

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

 --
 Adriano Bosoni - ADP
","2011-11-11 17:25:08",1,"2012-03-23 07:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/177761_re-discussion-spanish-protesters-.html","adriano.bosoni@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,friedman@att.blackberry.net",""
178936,"Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
","   ahah well yea European revolutions took place. But what im saying is that
   we are past that. Thats why i dont see these protests as actual \"protest\"
   but rather as just expression of discontent in a very democratic way.

   On 11/11/11 9:43 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     1848

     Europeans are no different than those Third World Arabs.

     (With all due respect, of course.)

     On 11/11/11 9:36 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

       With all due respect to people in Tunisia and/or third world
       countries, Europeans behave A LOT differently when it comes to
       protests. That of course doesnt mean that stuff might go down. And i
       totally see your concern with the Puerta del Sol square. What i think
       is that in Tunisia stuff spread around for different reasons. The arab
       spring type protests are of completely different nature than the one
       in Europe.

       On 11/11/11 9:31 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

         The protests in Tunisia were national still they jumped to other
         countries. I agree with you that we aren't likely to see a pan
         European movement.
         I was taking it a bit far when I was speaking about dead protesters
         and in the case of Spain I'm not speaking about protesters attacking
         each other like in Greece, I'm speaking about clashes with the
         authorities. The regional government apparently added the Puerta del
         Sol square to the ban list although it wasn't on that list during
         the May elections. I might be reading it wrongly but to me that
         seems like a provocation.

         On 11/11/11 9:19 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

           I personally don't agree with this statement \"these protests could
           lead to an open societal crisis in Spain and spark to other
           countries\". What we have in Europe is NATIONAL protests. These
           protests focus on the NATIONAL parliament and cannot therefore
           spread in Europe. You might have them in several countries but i
           dont think they spread because they are unrelated (despite the
           same economic shitty background) Plus, protests of this kind are
           usually peaceful, there is a decent level of understanding within
           the crowds that protests that killing each other isn't going to
           make a difference. Now we might have like always the 20 idiots
           that ruin it for everyone (think of the Rome revolts) but i dont
           foresee any dead or injured people. Protests dont automatically
           imply \"bad\" events to come

           On 11/11/11 8:02 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

             these protests could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain
             and spark to other countries. Are these protests going to breed
             the future leaders of Europe?

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Christoph Helbling
 ADP
 STRATFOR

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701
","2011-11-11 16:43:30",1,"2012-03-23 07:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/178936_re-discussion-spanish-protesters-.html","antonio.caracciolo@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
179068,"Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
","   More statements like preislers coming from germany
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2011 10:40:20 -0600 (CST)
   To: Benjamin Preisler<ben.preisler@stratfor.com>
   Cc: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>; Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
   what will it take to bring those types into the street?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Benjamin Preisler\" <ben.preisler@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>, friedman@att.blackberry.net
   Sent: Friday, November 11, 2011 10:38:40 AM
   Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters

   I'd really watch out to not overestimate these people's suffering (with
   all due respect to their personal plight). In Greece demonstrators are
   pretty much working insiders protecting their rents against a government
   actually being forced to reform. We're not talking about dirt-poor
   desperate people with no future such as in Tunisia. In Spain I believe
   demonstrations are more dominated by younger university educated types,
   protests are also much smaller. The same holds true for Italy I think. My
   point being, we're not looking at your typical 'revolutionary' potential
   of people with nothing to lose willing to risk anything. Those guys aren't
   out on the street yet. Once they are out there, these protests actually
   matter in a system-threatening manner until then I wouldn't worry about it
   too much.

   On 11/11/2011 05:25 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

      Europeans aren't protesting the approval of a new EU constitutional
     amendment. They're protesting out of fear that they're going to lose the
     roof on their heads.  the more basic your demands, the more likely the
     protests will turn violent, and we can already see that the elites
     handling the crisis won't be able to manage this crisis in the end. the
     musical chairs we're seeing right now in the Greek and Italian
     governments is likely only the beginning. we have to see that as the
     manifestation of a much broader crisis in confidence, not on a national
     level, but on the european level.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
     To: \"Analysts Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Friday, November 11, 2011 10:14:24 AM
     Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters

     Europe has not had mass violent protests since the 1960s although it has
     had violence and terrorism. Its been quiet since the 1990s if you ignore
     yugoslavia.

     The europeans regard this new period as normal and the past as
     irrelevant. It seems to me that the radical shifts in structure returns
     europe to its prior state and with it mass violence becomes likely not
     just possible. Europe has a violent history and that history is not so
     long ago.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Colby Martin <colby.martin@stratfor.com>
     Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 11 Nov 2011 10:10:30 -0600 (CST)
     To: <analysts@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
     I am not sure how you can argue European protesters are not going to
     turn to violence and the authorities won't resort to draconian measures
     to suppress them.  Right now the unemployed still have those nice little
     social programs (especially in Spain) to support them so I agree right
     now they should remain low key.  But if the gov't has to reduce those
     programs or cut them altogether, the protests could turn into bad in a
     hurry.  I just want to make sure this isn't the European argument that
     \"they\" are more civilized, therefore violence is a thing of the past. (I
     throw up in my mouth a little every time a European tells me this)

     On 11/11/11 9:51 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

       I see your point, but what i dont agree with is when we imply that
       protests that happened in Tunisia can be compared to possible future
       ones in Europe. the word protests is very different when you compare
       north africa and european nations. A protest during the Arab spring,
       implied death injured and so on. A protest in europe (i.e Italy and
       Spain) is just a march that isnt a big deal. Rome marches were the
       same, nothing happened despite the fact that the Media made a big deal
       out of literally burnt cars by punks.

       On 11/11/11 9:48 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

         You're changing the argument. Your assertion that things can't
         spread from country to country because they are based on national
         issues is flawed. You have similar economic conditions in almost
         every European country at the moment. The issues aren't the same as
         what existed in the Arab world last winter, and nor are the nature
         of the regimes in power. No one is saying that. What we're saying is
         that Tunisia provides an example of how protest movements have the
         ability to spread to other countries that feature similar
         socioeconomic conditions.

         On 11/11/11 9:38 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

           Protests in Egypt that spread all over the place were based on the
           ability of people to say what they want and be able to get a
           decent rule of law and government. In Europe we have that,
           unfortunately we have a shitty economy, the protests are there but
           are unrelated because each country has its own way to approach the
           economic issues. We wont kill each other like people in north
           Africa, were past that, and again no offense to people from the
           region. Europeans live for the most part in democracies,
           expressing a discontent (which is what is happening now) is
           different from fighting for your freedom (i.e Egypt, Tunisia,
           Libya)

           On 11/11/11 9:34 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

             Without wading into the particulars of this discussion, I will
             just say that your logic re: national protests not being able to
             spread to other countries is flawed. How were the gripes of
             Egyptians last January related to the national uprising in
             Tunisia? And so on.

             On 11/11/11 9:19 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

               I personally don't agree with this statement \"these protests
               could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain and spark to
               other countries\". What we have in Europe is NATIONAL protests.
               These protests focus on the NATIONAL parliament and cannot
               therefore spread in Europe. You might have them in several
               countries but i dont think they spread because they are
               unrelated (despite the same economic shitty background) Plus,
               protests of this kind are usually peaceful, there is a decent
               level of understanding within the crowds that protests that
               killing each other isn't going to make a difference. Now we
               might have like always the 20 idiots that ruin it for everyone
               (think of the Rome revolts) but i dont foresee any dead or
               injured people. Protests dont automatically imply \"bad\" events
               to come

               On 11/11/11 8:02 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

                 these protests could lead to an open societal crisis in
                 Spain and spark to other countries. Are these protests going
                 to breed the future leaders of Europe?

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +216 22 73 23 19
 www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-11 17:42:15",1,"2012-03-23 07:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/179068_re-discussion-spanish-protesters-.html","friedman@att.blackberry.net","","bhalla@stratfor.com,analysts@stratfor.com",""
180174,"Re: analysis for comment - europe, where we are right now
","   nice wrap-up

   2 comments

   1. When talking about Berlusconi's parliamentary majority, i think it's
   also worth mentioning his media empire that gives him and his allies a lot
   of clout in a crisis like this.  There have already been rallies organized
   by the editors of newspapers owned by his supporters that condemn the
   global markets of attempting a coup d'etat in Italy. Didn't Berlusconi
   even say speciically that he would back Monti, but make his presence felt
   in parliament?  sounds like a threat to really screw things up in order to
   keep his legacy alive.

   2.  What's the limit for Italian borrowing rates?  we're watching it creep
   up and up, but what's the ballpark at which Italy can no longer take it
   and have to default?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Michael Wilson\" <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 1:25:20 PM
   Subject: Re: analysis for comment - europe, where we are right now

   On 11/14/11 12:17 PM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

     Over the weekend the German press was abuzz with potential solutions to
     the ongoing European financial crisis. Treaty changes and new
     enforcement mechanisms are being discussed within German political
     parties with some proposals likely to hit debate within a few weeks.
     Chancellor Angela Merkel even started putting out some tentative
     deadlines, with the penciled-in goal to have fully treaty revision texts
     ready to submit to national parliaments for ratification by the spring
     of 2012.

   note this is from a source to reuters

     In the German mind, the European financial crisis wouldna**t have
     happened had not Europea**s integrative processes been much more deeply
     developed, and they are seizing the crisis in an attempt to impose that
     solution on a somewhat fractious Europe.

      

     The Germans have a point. Fixing a crisis of this magnitude does indeed
     require a full fiscal union. Until there is a singular government that
     can regulate the entire eurozone and redistribute resources as
     necessary, Europe will at best be lurching from crisis to crisis. But
     just as the tools for managing modern Europe are insufficient for the
     job, so too are the tools for pushing Europe towards a full union.
     Parliaments across Northern Europe have already made their displeasure
     known, and new funding for the bailout programs for the eurozonea**s
     weaker states appears to be off the table. Without a transnational
     political system or a larger transnational bailout program, it is
     difficult to envision a process that could lead Europe to stronger
     central governance. But that is the challenge before the Germans at
     present, and here is how theya**re trying to make it all work.

      

     First, if the Southern European governments cannot implement the
     necessary austerity, then those governments must be changed. Using
     control over the bailout fund and the EUa**s largest market, heavy
     influence over the Commission, and old fashioned political arm-twisting,
     the Germans have already brought about the fall of (now former) Prime
     Minister George Papandreou and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.
     In their place are to be national unity governments that hopefully can
     achieve what elected governments could not.

      

     Second, all EU states must agree to new treaty changes that streamline a
     host of decisionmaking processes in favor of Northern Europe,
     specifically Germany. There is quite a laundry list of issues to be
     fixed. The ECB voting structure may will be changed to heavily favor
     larger states (currently Malta has the same say as Germany) I dont think
     this is true, We had a discussion on this a few weeks ago. There is
     already GDP weighting, they just want to make it more so. States who run
     excessive deficits can be brought before the European Court of Justice.
     The European Commission, the bailout fund and other European structures
     will be able to intervene directly in the fiscal processes of struggling
     European states.

   I would also mention recent 6 pack legislation which will already be able
   to withold structural and CAP funds

      

     Third, beyond treaty changes, constitutional amendments must be adopted
     by all eurozone members to hardwire budgetary controls in at the
     national level -- along with pre-approval for European institutions to
     intervene should those controls be violated. Collectively these measures
     are intended to push all eurozone states into budgetary surplus (after
     interest payments are included) so that Southern Europea**s debt
     mountains can be whittled down over time.

      

     And perhaps most critically, to keep all of this -- the shift in
     governments and certainly the treaty change approvals -- out of the
     hands of the European publics. Votes on European issues often transform
     into referendums on governments, and there are very few European
     governments these day who enjoy strong public support. Of particular
     fear is that any actual referendums would wholeheartedly reject not only
     the integrative steps that might lead Europe out of the crisis, but even
     reject the slapdash solutions -- such as the Greek bailout program --
     that are keeping the European system from blowing apart.

     But getting from here to there is no small challenge.

   Somehwere you could also mention Spain looks set to try to get ahead of
   this. Even though PP in Spain looks set to win its own minority it will
   bring in a \"professional/independent\" econ manager

      

     As events of the past week have already amply demonstrated, arranging
     the resignation of the previous government leaders was the easy part --
     forming reliable replacement governments is another matter entirely.
     European institutions have attempted to get the entire Greek political
     leadership to commit themselves in writing to the austerity programs no
     matter should they find themselves in charge of the government in the
     future. Yet the (former) opposition -- led by New Democracy leader
     Antonis Samaras -- not only refused to make such commitments, but is
     already lobbying against the very austerity measures that the national
     unity government was expressly formed to implement.

      

     Italya**s current political situation is even more curious. Berlusconi
     has indeed resigned, and Mario Monti has been selected to succeed him --
     but Monti lacks a government. Say what you will about Berlusconi (and
     therea**s a lot to be said) but he is the only person in post-WWII
     reconstruction Italy who has ever been able to hold a government
     together to term. He was also not the person -- or leading the party --
     who was so fervently against austerity measures. So now Monti somehow
     has to cobble together a government that somehow weasels its way around
     the fact that Berlusconia**s People of Freedoma**s Party of the
     anti-austerity Northern League are the largest and third-largest parties
     in the parliament. Therea**s also the largely overlooked detail that
     Berlusconi has only resigned from the prime ministera**s chair -- not
     from politics. It doesna**t take a particular creative mind to imagine
     what the most powerful Italian politician/businessman leading the
     largest parliamentary block thinks about the coalition of forces that
     edged him out of power.

      

     Even if technocrats such as Monti or new Greek Prime Minister Lucas
     Papademos can somehow form stable governments and piece together serious
     austerity packages and even sign off on German-mandated
     constitutional/treaty revisions, those actions will still need to be
     approved by their respective parliaments. Having technocrats in charge
     might be nice -- even wise -- but completely short-circuiting the
     democratic process is simply not possible.

      

     The democratic deficit becomes of particular importance once the issue
     of unrest and strikes are taken into account. Governments -- even
     national unity governments -- seen as caving to the Germans are going to
     be challenged by citizens who do not wish to suffer economically,
     particularly under rules established by outsiders. Technocratic
     governments are viable options for very short-term needs if the policies
     in question have popular acquiescence. But these technocratic
     governments are being implemented expressly to avoid a popular vote,
     with the leaders of those governments asserting that they will need to
     remain in power until at least 2013. A far more likely outcome of this
     process is that these governments will radicalize the population,
     driving wedges between increasingly angry publics and elites already
     widely viewed as disconnected from reality.

   Though also I think there has been some popular (though maybe only
   editorial elite) acclamation for technocrats as people who can actually
   get shit done as opposed to feuding elites

      

     But perhaps the biggest flaw in the developing plan is that it assumes
     that no one will notice its flaws. Markets trade on events of the day,
     and simply in the past 24 hours many of the plana**s shortcomings in
     Greece and Italy have boiled to the surface. Bond markets have become
     ever-more-distrustful of whatever the latest and greatest announcement
     out of Europe for solving the crisis is. Italian borrowing costs are now
     at a 14-year high. Germany has found that sort of financial pressure
     useful in bringing Italy to bear -- would Berlusconi have stepped aside
     otherwise? But ita**s a very dangerous tool: should rates go too high
     too fast Italy will have no choice but to default, and its 1.9 trillion
     euro in debt would crash not only the Italian economy but the
     Continental banking sector in a matter of days.

      

     Its not as if Greece and Italy are the end of Europea**s problems,
     either. Ireland may have proved itself as the bailout state most loyally
     implementing austerity by both spirit and letter, but the Irish
     tenaciously defend their overall sovereignty. Their government is not
     likely to give way to a national unity government, nor is it likely that
     the Irish will settle for anything less than a full national referendum
     on any EU treaty changes. And lest anyone forget, the Irish have vetoed
     major European treaties before.

      

     Spain also presents a major stumbling block. National parliamentary
     elections will be held just one week from now, and a government with a
     fresh political mandate is not the sort of government that the Germans
     will be able to force to adopt this or that policy. Spain may have shown
     a greater tolerance for cutting spending and its overall debt load may
     be only half of Italya**s, but its budget deficit is nearly double.

   yeah but PP looks set to win a majority, meaning it wont have to rely on
   bribing regional parties. Also they are looking to implement the same
   technocratic economic governance by bringin

   Spain's likely new gov't seeks crisis manager for economy
   http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/10/spain-election-ministers-idUSLDE7A905V20111110

   Nov 10 (Reuters) - Centre-right opposition leader Mariano Rajoy, poised to
   win Spain's Nov. 20 parliamentary election, is seeking an internationally
   respected figure for economy minister to win over nervous investors in the
   deepening euro zone crisis.

   Analysts and insiders from Rajoy's People's Party (PP) say he wants a
   manager with clout and experience, but not necessarily someone from within
   the party.

   The PP could separate the Economy Ministry into two, with one for economy
   and one for finance, as it was under the last centre-right government.

   Rajoy, expected to oust the Socialists who have been in power for more
   than seven years, will implement drastic spending cuts and economic
   reforms that could revive production in the medium term but will push the
   economy into recession next year.

   Following are some of the names most frequently mentioned for Economy
   Minister by political and financial sources:

   Luis de Guindos (51)

   De Guindos is director of the respected Spanish business school Instituto
   de Empresa and an independent board member of the energy group Endesa. He
   is said to speak with Rajoy frequently.

   He served as economy secretary -- a high-ranking position reporting to the
   Economy Minister -- under the previous conservative Prime Minister Jose
   Maria Aznar from 2002 to 2004. He also held other key positions within the
   ministry from 1996.

   De Guindos was chief executive of Lehman Brothers Spain and Portugal
   2006-2008, and later responsible for the financial division of
   PriceWaterhouseCoopers.

   Cristobal Montoro (61)

   Montoro heads the People's Party economic team and acts as a kind of
   shadow economy minister. He sits in the European Parliament for the PP, as
   well as in the lower house of parliament in Spain.

   Montoro was economy secretary, also under Aznar, from 1996 to 2000 and
   then finance minister from 2000 to 2004.

   Some political pundits are doubtful Montoro has the international clout to
   make the position of economy minister in the current climate, though his
   place close to Rajoy is likely to guarantee some important post within the
   economic team.

   Josep Pique (56)

   A Catalan businessman and politician, Josep Pique is chairman of the
   Spanish airline Vueling and president of the influential Barcelona-based
   think tank Circulo de Economia.

   He served in the PP government from 1996 to 2003 first as industry
   minister, then government spokesman and later foreign minister and
   minister of science.

   From 2003 to 2007, Pique headed the PP in Catalonia, a region where the
   party has traditionally been weak.

   Fernando Becker (56)

   Head of corporate resources at the Spanish energy group Iberdrola, Becker
   holds a doctorate in economics.

   He was previously the president of the state lender, the Official Credit
   Institute, under the Aznar government and up until 1999.

   He also served as an economics advisor to the regional government of
   Castilla y Leon.

   Becker is said to be close to the conservative think tank FAES, which is
   presided over by Aznar. And he attended college with Rajoy.

   Francisco Gonzalez (67)

   Gonzalez has been chairman and chief executive of Spain's second largest
   bank BBVA since 2000. He is the vice-chairman of the Institute of
   International Finance (IIF) and sits on the International advisory
   committee of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

   Although Gonzalez speaks frequently with Rajoy and has well-established
   ties to the PP, he is not seen as likely to jump at a political position.

     Therea**s plenty of room for things to go (disastrously) wrong. Even
     quiet Belgium -- with a national debt right at 100 percent of GDP -- has
     lurking landmines. While the pro-European Belgians might be more willing
     to give a national unity government a try than other states, it has now
     been 517 days since Belgium had a government. Any a**unitya** government
     that is forced upon Belgium would be, well, forced upon it.

      

     Save Italy, all of these states could trigger a financial cascade that
     could bring down the entire European edifice. The only reason that Italy
     is an exception is that its big enough that it would bring Europe down
     all by itself.

      

      

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-14 22:35:17",1,"2012-04-01 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/180174_re-analysis-for-comment-europe-where-we-are-right-now-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
181299,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged \"Anonymous\" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise \"anonymous\"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
","2011-11-10 19:47:39",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/181299_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
183498,"Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
","   Ok lets put the idea of killing aside.
   Still youth unemployment is at 46%! A lot of university graduates with
   spare time to discuss and think. I'm sure they're discussing their future
   and that looks shit, so something has to change in their opinion.

   On 11/11/11 9:43 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

     ahah well yea European revolutions took place. But what im saying is
     that we are past that. Thats why i dont see these protests as actual
     \"protest\" but rather as just expression of discontent in a very
     democratic way.

     On 11/11/11 9:43 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

       1848

       Europeans are no different than those Third World Arabs.

       (With all due respect, of course.)

       On 11/11/11 9:36 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

         With all due respect to people in Tunisia and/or third world
         countries, Europeans behave A LOT differently when it comes to
         protests. That of course doesnt mean that stuff might go down. And i
         totally see your concern with the Puerta del Sol square. What i
         think is that in Tunisia stuff spread around for different reasons.
         The arab spring type protests are of completely different nature
         than the one in Europe.

         On 11/11/11 9:31 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

           The protests in Tunisia were national still they jumped to other
           countries. I agree with you that we aren't likely to see a pan
           European movement.
           I was taking it a bit far when I was speaking about dead
           protesters and in the case of Spain I'm not speaking about
           protesters attacking each other like in Greece, I'm speaking about
           clashes with the authorities. The regional government apparently
           added the Puerta del Sol square to the ban list although it wasn't
           on that list during the May elections. I might be reading it
           wrongly but to me that seems like a provocation.

           On 11/11/11 9:19 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:

             I personally don't agree with this statement \"these protests
             could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain and spark to
             other countries\". What we have in Europe is NATIONAL protests.
             These protests focus on the NATIONAL parliament and cannot
             therefore spread in Europe. You might have them in several
             countries but i dont think they spread because they are
             unrelated (despite the same economic shitty background) Plus,
             protests of this kind are usually peaceful, there is a decent
             level of understanding within the crowds that protests that
             killing each other isn't going to make a difference. Now we
             might have like always the 20 idiots that ruin it for everyone
             (think of the Rome revolts) but i dont foresee any dead or
             injured people. Protests dont automatically imply \"bad\" events
             to come

             On 11/11/11 8:02 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

               these protests could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain
               and spark to other countries. Are these protests going to
               breed the future leaders of Europe?

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Christoph Helbling
 ADP
 STRATFOR

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Antonio Caracciolo
 Analyst Development Program
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin,TX 78701

 --
 Christoph Helbling
 ADP
 STRATFOR
","2011-11-11 16:49:31",1,"2012-03-23 07:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/183498_re-discussion-spanish-protesters-.html","christoph.helbling@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
183507,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-11 13:59:34",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/183507_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
183896,"Re: DISCUSSION - Spanish protesters
","The \"indignant citizens movement\" is intended to be transnational - It star=
ted in Spain with the local elections in May. But the youth protesters in G=
reece seized on the idea this summer. They've popped up in other places too=
 - Italy, the UK, France and even Germany. The protesters are all locals pr=
otesting national issues but the concept of there being some sense of solid=
arity amongst the unemployed youth of Europe is already there.


On Nov 11, 2011, at 10:01 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

> We are strictly talking about the idea of contagion, not the nature of th=
e disease. It's like how in the First World, a really bad cough spreads aro=
und an office full of cubicle, and in Africa, people are spreading around H=
IV or Ebola or some other bad shit. There is still a contagion effect occur=
ing, whether you're talking #firstworldproblems or #arabspring.
>=20
> Just trying to shoot down the incorrect notion that a \"national\" protest =
in Spain does not have the ability to inspire French, Italian, Greek, Belgi=
an (ha!), Austrian, Portuguese, Irish, British, whoever else to do the same=
. Even if they are more civilized and inherently democratic by nature of th=
eir upbringing in a decadent society in which people speak multiple languag=
es and only wave their respective flags during the World Cup, they still lo=
ok around at what is happening in neighboring countries and get inspired.
>=20
>=20
>=20
> On 11/11/11 9:51 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:
>>=20
>> I see your point, but what i dont agree with is when we imply that prote=
sts that happened in Tunisia can be compared to possible future ones in Eur=
ope. the word protests is very different when you compare north africa and =
european nations. A protest during the Arab spring, implied death injured a=
nd so on. A protest in europe (i.e Italy and Spain) is just a march that is=
nt a big deal. Rome marches were the same, nothing happened despite the fac=
t that the Media made a big deal out of literally burnt cars by punks.
>>=20
>> On 11/11/11 9:48 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:
>>>=20
>>> You're changing the argument. Your assertion that things can't spread f=
rom country to country because they are based on national issues is flawed.=
 You have similar economic conditions in almost every European country at t=
he moment. The issues aren't the same as what existed in the Arab world las=
t winter, and nor are the nature of the regimes in power. No one is saying =
that. What we're saying is that Tunisia provides an example of how protest =
movements have the ability to spread to other countries that feature simila=
r socioeconomic conditions.
>>>=20
>>>=20
>>>=20
>>>=20
>>>=20
>>>=20
>>>=20
>>>=20
>>>=20
>>> On 11/11/11 9:38 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:
>>>>=20
>>>> Protests in Egypt that spread all over the place were based on the abi=
lity of people to say what they want and be able to get a decent rule of la=
w and government. In Europe we have that, unfortunately we have a shitty ec=
onomy, the protests are there but are unrelated because each country has it=
s own way to approach the economic issues. We wont kill each other like peo=
ple in north Africa, were past that, and again no offense to people from th=
e region. Europeans live for the most part in democracies, expressing a dis=
content (which is what is happening now) is different from fighting for you=
r freedom (i.e Egypt, Tunisia, Libya)
>>>>=20
>>>> On 11/11/11 9:34 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:
>>>>>=20
>>>>> Without wading into the particulars of this discussion, I will just s=
ay that your logic re: national protests not being able to spread to other =
countries is flawed. How were the gripes of Egyptians last January related =
to the national uprising in Tunisia? And so on.
>>>>>=20
>>>>>=20
>>>>>=20
>>>>>=20
>>>>> On 11/11/11 9:19 AM, Antonio Caracciolo wrote:
>>>>>>=20
>>>>>> I personally don't agree with this statement \"these protests could l=
ead to an open societal crisis in Spain and spark to other countries\". What=
 we have in Europe is NATIONAL protests. These protests focus on the NATION=
AL parliament and cannot therefore spread in Europe. You might have them in=
 several countries but i dont think they spread because they are unrelated =
(despite the same economic shitty background) Plus, protests of this kind a=
re usually peaceful, there is a decent level of understanding within the cr=
owds that protests that killing each other isn't going to make a difference=
. Now we might have like always the 20 idiots that ruin it for everyone (th=
ink of the Rome revolts) but i dont foresee any dead or injured people. Pro=
tests dont automatically imply \"bad\" events to come
>>>>>>=20
>>>>>> On 11/11/11 8:02 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:
>>>>>>>=20
>>>>>>> these protests could lead to an open societal crisis in Spain and s=
park to other countries. Are these protests going to breed the future leade=
rs of Europe?
>>>>>>=20
>>>>>> --=20
>>>>>> Antonio Caracciolo
>>>>>> Analyst Development Program
>>>>>> STRATFOR
>>>>>> 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
>>>>>> Austin,TX 78701
>>>>>=20
>>>>=20
>>>> --=20
>>>> Antonio Caracciolo
>>>> Analyst Development Program
>>>> STRATFOR
>>>> 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
>>>> Austin,TX 78701
>>>=20
>>=20
>> --=20
>> Antonio Caracciolo
>> Analyst Development Program
>> STRATFOR
>> 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
>> Austin,TX 78701
>=20
","2011-11-11 17:08:40",1,"2012-03-23 07:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/183896_re-discussion-spanish-protesters-.html","kristen.cooper@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
184236,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
","   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-17 14:01:00",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/184236_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
185945,"Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran
","   I am not saying that we should believe something only when it hits the OS.
   My point is about proceeding forward from a single source report. We
   shouldn't completely dismiss it but the issue is confirmation before
   something related pops up in the OS.

   On 11/14/11 9:30 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Yes but an intelligence agency that secures a single piece of insight
     that is then corroborated by the infamous OS leads one to believe that
     either the same source is responsible for both or perhaps there is smoke
     that indicates a fire?    We tend to not believe things unless there is
     OS.  The best intel never see's the light of day.  I'm more circumspect
     when it is in the OS...unless of course, we planted it.  

     p.s. I'm offended that we may believe an Iranian before a Jew. 

     cc:  APAC, JINSA. 

     On 11/14/2011 8:21 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

       As an intelligence entity we can't simply accept a single piece of
       insight as truth.

       On 11/14/11 9:10 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

         Guerrilla actions behind enemy lines.  

         If we think the Izzies have set back waiting on Iran to create a
         bomb we are like the CIA with their inability to predict just about
         anything. 

         Check INSIGHT I posted last week that everyone discounted.  How come
         if its not in OS we nash our teeth?  Intelligence agencies exist to
         have sources.  That is what we are.  

         On 11/14/2011 8:06 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

           Penetrating a major military installation and causing a blast is a
           totally different ballgame. Not saying it can't happen. But we
           can't assume that because they did stuxnet that they are capable
           of doing this blast as well. It is a huge leap in capabilities.

           Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
           Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
           Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 08:03:34 -0600 (CST)
           To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
           ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran
           It clearly does not. Look at the thousand centrifuges. Please
           reread the 2 stuxnet analyses.

           There are enough iranians who have aliyah'd to israel that they
           could easily train a persian looking, farsi speaking jew to go
           into Iran for sabotage and not get caught. I don't know that this
           is happening nor do I assume that there would not be mistakes, but
           its very possible to do this undetected. The key is recruiting
           human agents on the bases. This was clearly done with stuxnet,
           though it may have been unknowingly

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
           Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
           Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:59:47 -0600 (CST)
           To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
           ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran
           Yeah this seems really unlikely. '79 was a whole different
           reality. The security establishment has the placed locked down.
           Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Abe Selig <abe.selig@stratfor.com>
           Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
           Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:45:14 -0600 (CST)
           To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
           ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran
           There are still about 20,000 Jews in Iran (Tehran and Esfahan
           mostly), but IMO, they are far too scared of being accused as
           Israeli spies too actually help Israel out.

           On 11/14/11 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             Ah.  As stick said, they would more likely use proxies.  But if
             not,  special operations forces do often move undetected.  Don't
             think of them as going in on a helicopter, think of them as
             going in with a group of migrant workers crossing the border. 
             There used to be a lot of jews in Iran, not so much anymore,
             that's who I would recruit form. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
             To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
             Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 7:11:15 AM
             Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
             blast in Iran

             See insight below.
             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
             Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
             Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:10:06 -0600 (CST)
             To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
             ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
             Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
             blast in Iran
             what commandos?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
             To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
             Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 6:39:07 AM
             Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
             blast in Iran

             How did Israeli commandos get to operate deep inside Iran
             without being detected?
             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
             Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
             Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 05:54:41 -0600 (CST)
             To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
             ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
             Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
             blast in Iran
             I agree.  The argument here is that the proponents of
             conventional war are ones that want the oil prices--but is it
             really that simple?  What about other economic effects?  For
             Israel, by this argument, it doesn't matter what method as long
             as it sets Iran back----I agree with this.  However, the
             confidence that this guy has does not show publicly.  By that, I
             mean look at what Dagan was saying a year ago, and how quiet
             Israeli leaders have been.  Suddenly they are really pushing the
             issue, and while Dagan isn't it, his line is that conventional
             war would be a mistake, not that Iran doesn't need to be dealt
             with.  I don't really like trying to interpret public
             statements, but I think there is something here, and that's why
             I keep pushing this. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: \"Chris Farnham\" <chris.farnham@stratfor.com>
             To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
             Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 7:22:52 PM
             Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
             blast in Iran

             I think the info that Fred sent in previously needs to be looked
             quite seriously here.

             The insight seems like quite a stretch however it has been put
             out there for some reason or another and is now playing in to
             what we are seeing.

             Insight below:

             Source below was asked to clarify his remarks that the nuclear
             infrastructure had been destroyed.  Source response:

             Israeli commandos in collaboration with Kurd forces destroyed
             few underground facilities mainly used for the Iranian defense
             and nuclear research projects.

             Despite the reports in the media and against any public
             knowledge, the promoter of a massive Israeli attack on Syria is
             the axis India-Russia-Turkey-Saudi Arabia. The axis
             US-Germany-France-China is against such an attack from obvious
             reasons. Not many people know that Russia is one of Israel's
             largest military partners and India is Israel's largest client.

             If a direct conflict between Iran and Israel erupts, Russia and
             Saudi Arabia will gain the advantages on oil increasing prices.
             On the other hand, China and Europe are expected to loose from
             an oil crisis as a result of a conflict. Based on Israeli plans,
             the attack on Iran will last only 48 hours but will be so
             destructive that Iran will be unable to retaliate or recover and
             the government will fall. It is hard to believe that Hamas or
             Hezbollah will try to get involved in this conflict.

             In the open media many are pushing and expecting Israel to
             launch a massive attack on Iran. Even if the Israelis have the
             capabilities and are ready to attack by air, sea and land, there
             is no need to attack the nuclear program at this point after the
             commandos destroyed a significant part of it.

             If a massive attack on Iran happens soon, then the attack will
             have political and oil reasons and not nuclear. It is also very
             hard to believe that the Israelis will initiate an attack unless
             they act as a contractor for other nations or if Iran or its
             proxies attack first. With the revealed of the new UN report the
             Israelis have green light to take care of the Iranian proxies in
             Gaza and Lebanon now with the entire world watching Iran. I
             think that we should expect escalations on these fronts rather
             than an Israeli attack on Iran.

             On 11/7/11 8:09 AM, Chris Farnham wrote: Ah, what? Israel has
             already destroyed the Iranian prog/infra and this is all being
             engineered by Europeans so people forget about the economy
             crisis?!

             How and when did the Israelis destroy the infra on the ground?

             Why is that we see the vast majority of the increase in pressure
             coming from Israel (I mean straight from people's mouths) and
             from the US (Such as Albright in the WaPo)?

             Would anyone actually accept that this could let the Europeans
             forget about the Euro crisis, something they have been
             experiencing every day for over a year?!

             Do we attribute any credibility to this item at all? I don't
             even see what possible disinfo purposes this could serve.

             On 11/7/11 7:54 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

               Code: IL701
               Publication: for background
               Attribution: none
               Source Description - Confirmed Israeli Intelligence Agent
               Source reliability: Still testing
               Item credibility: untested
               Source handler: Fred

               Source was asked what he thought of reports that the Israelis
               were preparing a military offensive against Iran.  Response:

               I think this is a diversion. The Israelis already destroyed
               all the Iranian nuclear infrastructure on the ground weeks
               ago. The current \"let's bomb Iran\" campaign was ordered by the
               EU leaders to divert the public attention from their at home
               financial problems. It plays also well for the US  since
               Pakistan, Russia and N. Korea are mentioned in the report. 

               The result of this campaign will be massive attacks on Gaza
               and strikes on Hezbollah in both Lebanon and Syria.

               --

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
             To: analysts@stratfor.com
             Sent: Monday, 14 November, 2011 11:52:04 AM
             Subject: Re: S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
             Iran

             wow, that's an extremely revealing statement.  The Israelis (i
             believe it was even Barak then too) made very similar comments
             following the Stuxnet news as well.  THe whole 'I'm not going to
             admit publicly that we did it, but boy that was nice.' 

             i think we need a piece laying out the details as far as we know
             of what happened and where and point out the holes in the
             accident theory. i think our assessment on the constraints of an
             Israeli attack on Iranian sites holds. It's the sabotage efforts
             where the most resources are being concentrated, which makes a
             lot of strategic and tactical sense for Israel and US in dealing
             with Iran at this stage

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: \"Ben West\" <ben.west@stratfor.com>
             To: \"alerts\" <alerts@stratfor.com>
             Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 2:40:06 PM
             Subject: S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
             Iran

             Interesting comments by the defense minister.

             http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i28MvYyqR9sGxc2cZ4U1QlPPQFLA?docId=CNG.93c1b5af9b6cb71a17bf389563809eb2.a1
             Israel hails deadly blast in Iran

             (AFP) - 1 hour ago 

             JERUSALEM - Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak on Sunday hailed
             the deadly munitions blast at a base of Iran's elite
             Revolutionary Guards and hoped for more such incidents.

             \"I don't know the extent of the explosion,\" he told military
             radio, asked about the incident. \"But it would be desirable if
             they multiply.\"

             Iran said earlier that a senior general who pioneered an
             artillery and missile unit was among the 17 Guards reported
             killed in Saturday's blast at Bid Ganeh, near the town of Malard
             on the western outskirts of Tehran.

             Guards spokesman commander Ramezan Sharif said the blast, which
             Iran said was an accident, occurred as \"ammunition was taken out
             of the depot and was being moved outside toward the appropriate
             site.\"

             Set up after the 1979 Islamic revolution to defend Iran, the
             Guards are in charge of the Islamic republic's missile
             programme, including Shahab-3 missiles with a range of 2,000
             kilometres (1,200 miles) capable of hitting Israel.

             Saturday's blast came amid international condemnation of Iran
             since the release of a new UN nuclear watchdog report accusing
             Tehran of working towards the development of nuclear warheads to
             fit inside its medium-range missiles.

             Israeli officials have in past weeks warned Iran of the
             possibility of military strikes against its nuclear sites.

             Ben West
             Tactical Analyst
             STRATFOR
             512-744-4300
             ext. 4340

             --

             Chris Farnham
             Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
             Australia Mobile: 0423372241
             Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
             www.stratfor.com

             --
             Sean Noonan
             Tactical Analyst
             STRATFOR
             T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
             www.STRATFOR.com

             --
             Sean Noonan
             Tactical Analyst
             STRATFOR
             T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
             www.STRATFOR.com

             --
             Sean Noonan
             Tactical Analyst
             STRATFOR
             T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
             www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 -
 Abe Selig
 Officer, Operations Center
 STRATFOR
 T: 512.279.9489 | M: 512.574.3846
 www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-14 15:40:05",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/185945_re-alpha-s3-g3-israel-iran-barak-hails-munitions-blast-in.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
187311,"Re: [Eurasia] SPAIN/ECON - Spain's likely new gov't seeks
	crisis	manager for economy
","   patsy and technocrats are two different things (and yes there can be
   overlap)

   a patsy is someone to take the fall

   a technocrat is to get shit done that needs to be done

   but yes

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Michael Wilson\" <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, November 10, 2011 10:17:21 AM
   Subject: Re: [Eurasia] SPAIN/ECON - Spain's likely new gov't seeks
   crisis        manager for economy

   to be less flippant

   EU officials know how unpopular what they have to do is. The public does
   not want to do what is needed to be done. The elites can't do what the
   public wants them to do though, because that threatens their interests

   So they look for technocrats (or as Peter calls them patsy's) to implement
   what needs to be done so that hopefully they can avoid some of the blame

   On 11/10/11 9:39 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     Seems like we are seeing the rise of the technocrats

     On 11/10/11 9:02 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

           Spain's likely new gov't seeks crisis manager for economy

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/10/spain-election-ministers-idUSLDE7A905V20111110

       MADRID Nov 10 (Reuters) - Centre-right opposition leader Mariano
       Rajoy, poised to win Spain's Nov. 20 parliamentary election, is
       seeking an internationally respected figure for economy minister to
       win over nervous investors in the deepening euro zone crisis.

       Analysts and insiders from Rajoy's People's Party (PP) say he wants a
       manager with clout and experience, but not necessarily someone from
       within the party.

       The PP could separate the Economy Ministry into two, with one for
       economy and one for finance, as it was under the last centre-right
       government.

       Rajoy, expected to oust the Socialists who have been in power for more
       than seven years, will implement drastic spending cuts and economic
       reforms that could revive production in the medium term but will push
       the economy into recession next year.

       Following are some of the names most frequently mentioned for Economy
       Minister by political and financial sources:

       Luis de Guindos (51)

       De Guindos is director of the respected Spanish business school
       Instituto de Empresa and an independent board member of the energy
       group Endesa. He is said to speak with Rajoy frequently.

       He served as economy secretary -- a high-ranking position reporting to
       the Economy Minister -- under the previous conservative Prime Minister
       Jose Maria Aznar from 2002 to 2004. He also held other key positions
       within the ministry from 1996.

       De Guindos was chief executive of Lehman Brothers Spain and Portugal
       2006-2008, and later responsible for the financial division of
       PriceWaterhouseCoopers.

       Cristobal Montoro (61)

       Montoro heads the People's Party economic team and acts as a kind of
       shadow economy minister. He sits in the European Parliament for the
       PP, as well as in the lower house of parliament in Spain.

       Montoro was economy secretary, also under Aznar, from 1996 to 2000 and
       then finance minister from 2000 to 2004.

       Some political pundits are doubtful Montoro has the international
       clout to make the position of economy minister in the current climate,
       though his place close to Rajoy is likely to guarantee some important
       post within the economic team.

       Josep Pique (56)

       A Catalan businessman and politician, Josep Pique is chairman of the
       Spanish airline Vueling and president of the influential
       Barcelona-based think tank Circulo de Economia.

       He served in the PP government from 1996 to 2003 first as industry
       minister, then government spokesman and later foreign minister and
       minister of science.

       From 2003 to 2007, Pique headed the PP in Catalonia, a region where
       the party has traditionally been weak.

       Fernando Becker (56)

       Head of corporate resources at the Spanish energy group Iberdrola,
       Becker holds a doctorate in economics.

       He was previously the president of the state lender, the Official
       Credit Institute, under the Aznar government and up until 1999.

       He also served as an economics advisor to the regional government of
       Castilla y Leon.

       Becker is said to be close to the conservative think tank FAES, which
       is presided over by Aznar. And he attended college with Rajoy.

       Francisco Gonzalez (67)

       Gonzalez has been chairman and chief executive of Spain's second
       largest bank BBVA since 2000. He is the vice-chairman of the Institute
       of International Finance (IIF) and sits on the International advisory
       committee of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

       Although Gonzalez speaks frequently with Rajoy and has
       well-established ties to the PP, he is not seen as likely to jump at a
       political position.

        

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +216 22 73 23 19
 www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-10 17:54:32",1,"2012-04-01 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/187311_re-eurasia-spain-econ-spain-s-likely-new-gov-t-seeks-crisis.html","peter.zeihan@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
191102,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA
	-	Turkey	mobilizing	forces	for	Syria? - ME1461
","   He's right about there being relevant nearby bases. Omar has the details
   on those. Question is if we can get any perspective into the extent and
   nature of preparations at those bases, if the key units at these bases
   have been reinforced and if additional units have been dispatched to
   forward positions along the border.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2011 16:42:20 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA - Turkey mobilizing forces for
   Syria? - ME1461
   can he specify in more detail what military presence is actually at the
   border (even if meant more for posturing?)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Emre Dogru\" <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 22, 2011 4:35:07 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA -
   Turkey        mobilizing        forces        for        Syria? - ME1461

   Here is what I talked with Faruk:
   He says he just got back from an official meeting in Ankara. He didn't
   hear of such a deployment. He says Turkey has no plan to intervene in
   Syria in a specific time-frame or before a deadline. But Turkey has a
   very-well developed contingency plan that may be implemented should the
   need arise according to the events that take place in Syria. The plan was
   elaborated back in March 2011, and revised in June 2011. Turkey's allies,
   including the US, are aware of this plan. The plan includes creating a
   buffer-zone in northern Syria (I sent specifics of this plan in another
   insight before - pasted below) only if the unrest or civil war in Syria 1)
   Creates a massive refugee crisis 2) Threatens the border security 3)
   Provides PKK with an opportunity to attack on Turkey more easily. But
   Turkey does not have any intention to take an action on Syria unless these
   conditions occur. Turkey will not act without US/NATO involvement anyway.
   That said, it's very normal to constantly revise the military preparations
   near the border. Land forces commander's visit can be considered in this
   context. Also, keep in mind that Turkish pilgrims were attacked in Syria
   the other day. Turkey may conduct a small-scale exercise near the border
   to remind Syria of possible consequences. But Turkey does not need to send
   500 tanks to the border or another type of military mobilization to do
   this. There are military bases in Gaziantep, Mardin and Antakya that have
   enough capacity to take necessary measures, unless an all-out war breaks
   out. Turkey has no intention to go war with Syria, unless Syria wages war
   on Turkey. But it has all plans and resources ready.
   --- earlier insight on bufferzone---
   Buffer-zone plan is not new. This was being elaborated by Ankara since
   March 2011. Current increase in media reports on this issue is
   psychological warfare against Assad. The Turkish army does not have a
   psychical preparation (deployment of troops, tanks etc.) near the border
   at the moment. Turkey needs to have a \"light\" UNSC resolution and be able
   to interpret it for its own purposes. But the important thing here is to
   have unwavering US/European/Arab League support, even if the Russians and
   Chinese do not actively support.

   Turkey needs to contain and control the PKK activity. That's Turkey's main
   concern. The second one is to stop an immigration wave if/when the civil
   war breaks out. However, unlike the initial discussions between the US and
   Turkey that a buffer-zone should cover as much as 100 kilometers deep
   inside Syrian borders, Turkey is able to do this five kilometers at most,
   but mainly one kilometer. Depending on the part of the border, five, one
   and zero kilometers deep buffer-zone will serve its purpose. This will
   also increase Turkey's intelligence capabilities 10-20 kilometers deep in
   Syria.

   Syria owns a faction within PKK, but Assad is not actively encouraging
   them to attack on Turkey for the moment.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, November 23, 2011 12:15:15 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA - Turkey
   mobilizing        forces        for        Syria? - ME1461

   And also remember that he may be passing on rumors or whatever. But if the
   turkish army is mobilizing it will be known and we can find out.

   I just want people remembering that we have a lot of sources in a lot of
   places. Going to os is good but not enough.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2011 16:13:01 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA - Turkey mobilizing forces for
   Syria? - ME1461
   Emre's on it. 

   keep in mind the source on this - Iranian mil source that may be trying to
   spread rumors and get Turkey to react.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 22, 2011 4:02:07 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA - Turkey mobilizing forces
   for        Syria? - ME1461

   500 tanks is about two divisions. They would normally be supported by
   about 20,000 troops. Assume that the 2000 is 20000 and what he is saying
   is a multidivisional invasion of syria. Mobilizing a deploying a force
   that big can't be hidden. It is certainly enough to take northern syria.
   But as I said, it would be a new chapter in turkish history and if they do
   it, it won't be because they want democracy in turkey.

   See if there is any confirmation on this. Go to emre on this.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Colby Martin <colby.martin@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 22 Nov 2011 15:55:58 -0600 (CST)
   To: <alpha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA - Turkey mobilizing forces for
   Syria? - ME1461
   two points.  500 tanks (even if they aren't all actually tanks) is A LOT. 
   2000 SF is not a lot, and to argue that small a force could hold the
   Syrian coast is laughable.  At most it is our assessment they could
   possibly pester the coast while the real invasion comes from Turkey, but
   keep in mind there are already 36,000 Turkish troops already in Cyprus. 

   On 11/22/11 3:51 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     Is there anything related to this in OS so far besides the Turkish army
     chief's visit to the border?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
     To: watchofficer@stratfor.com
     Sent: Tuesday, November 22, 2011 2:54:05 PM
     Subject: INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA - Turkey mobilizing forces for Syria? -
     ME1461

     SOURCE: ME1461
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Iranian military attache in lebanon
     PUBLICATION: yes
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: C
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: ??
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

     ** Are there any signs of this happening??

     In the course of talking about the Iranian missile base explosion, the
     source said that the Turks have readied 500 tanks for a limited invasion
     of northern Syria. He also said  that the Turks flew to northern Cyprus
     a special force contingent of 2,000 for occupying a 20kms stretch of the
     Syrian coast.

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-22 23:47:26",1,"2012-03-06 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/191102_re-alpha-insight-turkey-syria-turkey-mobilizing-forces-for.html","hughes@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
199603,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - PAKISTAN - Sequence of events in NATO attack
 -	PK001
","   What does 'embrace shahadat' mean?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Friday, 2 December, 2011 12:41:57 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - PAKISTAN - Sequence of events in NATO attack
   -        PK001

   From colonel source at army headquarters

                     CHRONOLOGY OF EVENTS-26 November 2011

   A*          15-30 minutes after midnight 2-3 helicopters appeared and
   started engaging Volcano Post ; communication broke down

   A*          Boulder Post engaged helicopters with 12.7 mm Anti Aircraft
   guns and all available weapons

   A*          Helicopters engaged Boulder post and communication with both
   the posts broke down

   A*          Because the communication had broken down, Company Commander
   Major Mujahid moved from Company headquarters to assess the situation and
   embraced shahadat as he reached  the Boulder Post

   A*          All channels (Coordination Mechanism) activated

   A*          Confirmation received that helicopters had pulled back by
   about 0105 hours

   A*          Since both the posts (Volcano and Boulder) were out of
   communication, commanding officer ordered neighbouring companyA*s company
   commander (Major Mustafa) to reinforce Boulder Post

   A*          This reinforcement got pinned down due to re-engagement by
   helicopters

   A*          26 air burst rounds of artillery were fired by own troops
   against the helicopters

   A*          Engagement from both sides lasted, intermittently till
   approximately 0215 hours

   A*          The magnitude of the incident only transpired at day break

   A*          Corps Commander landed at the posts early morning

    

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-12-02 04:52:00",1,"2012-02-29 23:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/199603_re-alpha-insight-pakistan-sequence-of-events-in-nato-attack.html","chris.farnham@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
201031,"","   Ok, that makes sense

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Dec 5, 2011, at 9:43 PM, \"George Friedman\"
   <friedman@att.blackberry.net> wrote:

     It does check out with what I heard in caracas but that increases the
     chance its gossip.

     If this is a source you suspect may have value, you have to take control
     od him. Control means financial, sexual or psychological control to the
     point where he would reveal his sourcing and be tasked. This is
     difficult to do when you are known to be affiliated with an intelligence
     organization. The decision on approach would not come from you but from
     your handler. This is because you're position is too close to the source
     and your judgment by definition suspect. Each meeting would be planned
     between you and your handler and each meeting would have a specific goal
     not built around discussing the topic of interest which would ideally be
     hidden but in analyzing him personally and moving toward control.
     The justification for the op would be specific classes of information
     and on gaining control the first step would be determining his access.
     If he failed the test contact would be terminated.

     the problem of analysts in the field is that they tend to want to
     discuss the topic, which raises the targets awareness, rather than focus
     on establishing the control relationship.

     So from a professional point of view this target knows your affiliation,
     understands your interests and you have not established any control
     which is defined as a high confidence in his obedience.

     So washington is filled with gossip with people whose access is not
     established.

     Just laying this out so you understand the core challenge. To be
     effective your goal is the person and not the subject. Otherwise its
     gossip which is information that you cannot definitively confirm.

     This is intended to start our conversation on your next phase.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>
     Date: Mon, 5 Dec 2011 20:30:10 -0600 (CST)
     To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
     Subject: Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
     struggle, etc. - VZ302
     Yes, I have much to learn and I may be just an analyst, but i'm not 100%
     incapable of evaluating a source i've known for a while.  I've listened
     to waht you've told me about reading a source (the Turk with the
     twitch.) I figured out what this source's twitch is in reading his
     eyes.  I've gotten much better in evaluating what info to take more
     seriously and what info to disregard. The info i included below is what
     I would consider more seriously and seems to check out with what we've
     seen elsewhere.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
     To: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Monday, December 5, 2011 9:26:02 PM
     Subject: Fw: Fwd: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
     struggle, etc. - VZ302

     The problem with analyst sources is they are unqualified. This means
     that we don't have clarity on their sources and therefore can't evaluate
     accuracy. This could be valuable humint or pure rumint.

     One of the reasons I want you to execute missions is to learn how to
     evaluate sources. This is a very difficult art but one you must learn.

     The gut is to be trusted only after its well trained.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>
     Date: Mon, 5 Dec 2011 20:14:51 -0600 (CST)
     To: George Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Fwd: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
     struggle, etc. - VZ302

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
     To: watchofficer@statfor.com
     Sent: Monday, December 5, 2011 9:13:24 PM
     Subject: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
     struggle, etc. - VZ302

     SOURCE: VZ302
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: well-connected VZ source working with Israel
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: B - source is anti-Chavez, but I've gotten better at
     reading him over the years to tell when he's feeding me shit and when
     he's giving useful info - his info on the VZ regime has checked out, but
     i tend to be more skeptical on iran-related info
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha, scrub source info and also make sure rest of
     latam team sees this
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

     Chavez's health - the tumor started as a growth close to the prostate,
     it spread to the colon, which is what led to a lot of confusion in the
     OS about the treatment of prostate v. colon cancer  in hormonal v.
     chemotherapy. A reliable source on the medical has explained that the
     cancer has spread to the lymph nodes and into the bone marrow up to the
     spine, ie. very serious.

     Chavez temporarily stopped the chemo in order to make an appearance at
     the recent CELAC meeting.  The medical team is made up of both Russian
     and Cuban doctors. Both sides are clashing.  THe Russian team blamed the
     Cubans for an improper surgery the first time in trying to remove the
     tumor. The second surgery over the summer was basically the Russian team
     trying to clean up the Cuban team's mistakes. The Russians complain that
     the Cubans dont have the right imagery treatment to properly treat
     Chavez.  The Cuban medical diagnosis is 2 years. The Russian medical
     diagnosis, due to improper medical equipment, is less than one year. The
     source on the medical team complains that Chavez is a very 'bad
     patient.' He doesn't listen to his doctors, he ceases treatment when he
     has to make a public appearance. Now the Russian and the Chinese doctors
     are going at it because Chavez sought hte advice of a Chinese doctor
     that advocates more natural treatments and the Russians are saying this
     is horse shit treatment. only chavez can get the most politicized
     medical team in the world.
     (note - if you see medical reports on Chavez's health in WSJ or Brazil's
     Veja magazine, it's probably coming from this source.)

     Who replaces Chavez?
     I would keep my eye on FM Nicolas Maduro. Maduro is loyal as a dog to
     Chavez. (the source knows Maduro personally, from the days that Maduro
     was a driver of the metro bus.)  At the same time, maduro is seen as the
     most pragmatic in the regime.  If Chavez's health deteriorates
     significantly before the scheduled Oct 2012 elections, expect him to
     proclaim Maduro as his successor in one way or another. You can already
     see him propping up Maduro in a lot of ways. This is less risky than
     Chavez going through with elections, winning, suddenly dying and then a
     power struggle among the Chavistas breaking out. It will be much harder
     in this latter scenario for Maduro to assert himself against rival
     Chavistas like Diosdado Cabello, Rafiel Ramirez, etc.

     Remember that there are four key players propping up the regime - China,
     Cuba, Russia, Iran. All four are split on how to manage a post-Chavez
     regime. China and Russia are more insulated, as they've tried to get
     away from Chavez the personality, to preserving Chavismo, the regime.
     Russia has set up a specific task force (note the Patrushev visits) to
     help manage the post-chavez transition. Both China and Russia are
     backing Maduro as their preferred successor. Cuba, however, is in
     trouble.  They can't count on a Maduro to continue subsidizing them with
     thousands of barrels of oil every day. No one is really paying attention
     to Cuba - they can;t count on the Europeans for investment. Without VZ,
     they're screwed. The Cubans so far have been backing Adan Chavez
     (Chavez's brother) as the preferred candidate, but he doesnt have the
     same following. Cuba may shift to backing Maduro. (At this point in the
     convo, i brought up the possibility of Cuba, having the best intel on
     VZ, using that intel to leverage with the US and open up its options -
     he agreed that's what the Castros will do to survive but he hasnt seen
     serious signs of this.. yet.)

     Maduro is seen as more of a Lula candidate. He has a following, he has
     charisma, but he's also a balancer. He's the kind of guy that would open
     up to the US and keep tight with everyone else, but that still makes
     Iran nervous.  The source seems to think that Obama in his second term
     would open up to Maduro (and this is something that he is actively
     working on.)

     The opposition -
     Venezuela is divided into 5 different strata - A, B, C, D, E - A ++ is
     the elite of the elite, the boli-bourgeoisie that that Chavez has very
     successfully vilified. Chavez doesn't give a shit about these guys. His
     base is the D and E.
     Capriles Radonski, Leopoldo Lopez, Maria Corina Machado are all the A++
     - way too elitist. They can't win over the chavista vote.
     The only one that has a real chance is Pablo Perez - Zulia governor -
     he's actually seen as one of the people.  The conversation between him
     adn the Castros is jsut starting up. (i asked if Perez is talking to
     Maduro yet - he says not yet.)

     guess who has been most cooperative with us lately?   The military
     elite.  These guys have been living the good life. They love women...
     lots of women. THey love booze. They love bora bora. They are easy to
     bribe. They dont care about chavez. they care about maintaining their
     current lifestyles. We've seen a lot of these military elite reach out
     to us lately, trying to insulate themselves in a post-Chavez scenario.

     This is why you'll see Chavez investing a lot of time and money in
     developing the militia. They're his best insurance policy. The more of a
     problem the militia can create on the streets, the more the military
     elite will hestiate before acting against him or his potential
     successor.

     The intent of the ley de precios is very simple. The money laundering
     schemes in food, pharmaceuticals, energy parts, etc. etc. have gotten
     worse./ Completely unchecked.  This price controls law is the
     government's way of controlling opposition campaign spending. Very
     straightforward - they have the legal justification to intimidate
     corporations into cutting back their support for the opposition, or
     else, their company is taken over. This will allow the state more
     control of the private sector.

     (side note) - we were talking a bit about a recent PdVSA-Iran joint
     venture. They shifted their main base of operations from Caracas to
     Ankara, though. This has become a trend lately, where a lot of Iran's
     sanctions circumventing oeprations in VZ are quietly being relocated to
     Turkey. Part of Turkey's balancing act with Iran.

     these were the main points. will update with more..little fuzzy from
     wine right now.
","2011-12-06 03:50:15",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/201031_.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","","friedman@att.blackberry.net",""
201547,"Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
 struggle, etc. - VZ302
","   Yes, I have much to learn and I may be just an analyst, but i'm not 100%
   incapable of evaluating a source i've known for a while.  I've listened to
   waht you've told me about reading a source (the Turk with the twitch.) I
   figured out what this source's twitch is in reading his eyes.  I've gotten
   much better in evaluating what info to take more seriously and what info
   to disregard. The info i included below is what I would consider more
   seriously and seems to check out with what we've seen elsewhere.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
   To: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, December 5, 2011 9:26:02 PM
   Subject: Fw: Fwd: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
   struggle, etc. - VZ302

   The problem with analyst sources is they are unqualified. This means that
   we don't have clarity on their sources and therefore can't evaluate
   accuracy. This could be valuable humint or pure rumint.

   One of the reasons I want you to execute missions is to learn how to
   evaluate sources. This is a very difficult art but one you must learn.

   The gut is to be trusted only after its well trained.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Date: Mon, 5 Dec 2011 20:14:51 -0600 (CST)
   To: George Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Fwd: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
   struggle, etc. - VZ302

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: watchofficer@statfor.com
   Sent: Monday, December 5, 2011 9:13:24 PM
   Subject: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power struggle,
   etc. - VZ302

   SOURCE: VZ302
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: well-connected VZ source working with Israel
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B - source is anti-Chavez, but I've gotten better at
   reading him over the years to tell when he's feeding me shit and when he's
   giving useful info - his info on the VZ regime has checked out, but i tend
   to be more skeptical on iran-related info
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha, scrub source info and also make sure rest of
   latam team sees this
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   Chavez's health - the tumor started as a growth close to the prostate, it
   spread to the colon, which is what led to a lot of confusion in the OS
   about the treatment of prostate v. colon cancer  in hormonal v.
   chemotherapy. A reliable source on the medical has explained that the
   cancer has spread to the lymph nodes and into the bone marrow up to the
   spine, ie. very serious.

   Chavez temporarily stopped the chemo in order to make an appearance at the
   recent CELAC meeting.  The medical team is made up of both Russian and
   Cuban doctors. Both sides are clashing.  THe Russian team blamed the
   Cubans for an improper surgery the first time in trying to remove the
   tumor. The second surgery over the summer was basically the Russian team
   trying to clean up the Cuban team's mistakes. The Russians complain that
   the Cubans dont have the right imagery treatment to properly treat
   Chavez.  The Cuban medical diagnosis is 2 years. The Russian medical
   diagnosis, due to improper medical equipment, is less than one year. The
   source on the medical team complains that Chavez is a very 'bad patient.'
   He doesn't listen to his doctors, he ceases treatment when he has to make
   a public appearance. Now the Russian and the Chinese doctors are going at
   it because Chavez sought hte advice of a Chinese doctor that advocates
   more natural treatments and the Russians are saying this is horse shit
   treatment. only chavez can get the most politicized medical team in the
   world.
   (note - if you see medical reports on Chavez's health in WSJ or Brazil's
   Veja magazine, it's probably coming from this source.)

   Who replaces Chavez?
   I would keep my eye on FM Nicolas Maduro. Maduro is loyal as a dog to
   Chavez. (the source knows Maduro personally, from the days that Maduro was
   a driver of the metro bus.)  At the same time, maduro is seen as the most
   pragmatic in the regime.  If Chavez's health deteriorates significantly
   before the scheduled Oct 2012 elections, expect him to proclaim Maduro as
   his successor in one way or another. You can already see him propping up
   Maduro in a lot of ways. This is less risky than Chavez going through with
   elections, winning, suddenly dying and then a power struggle among the
   Chavistas breaking out. It will be much harder in this latter scenario for
   Maduro to assert himself against rival Chavistas like Diosdado Cabello,
   Rafiel Ramirez, etc.

   Remember that there are four key players propping up the regime - China,
   Cuba, Russia, Iran. All four are split on how to manage a post-Chavez
   regime. China and Russia are more insulated, as they've tried to get away
   from Chavez the personality, to preserving Chavismo, the regime. Russia
   has set up a specific task force (note the Patrushev visits) to help
   manage the post-chavez transition. Both China and Russia are backing
   Maduro as their preferred successor. Cuba, however, is in trouble.  They
   can't count on a Maduro to continue subsidizing them with thousands of
   barrels of oil every day. No one is really paying attention to Cuba - they
   can;t count on the Europeans for investment. Without VZ, they're screwed.
   The Cubans so far have been backing Adan Chavez (Chavez's brother) as the
   preferred candidate, but he doesnt have the same following. Cuba may shift
   to backing Maduro. (At this point in the convo, i brought up the
   possibility of Cuba, having the best intel on VZ, using that intel to
   leverage with the US and open up its options - he agreed that's what the
   Castros will do to survive but he hasnt seen serious signs of this.. yet.)

   Maduro is seen as more of a Lula candidate. He has a following, he has
   charisma, but he's also a balancer. He's the kind of guy that would open
   up to the US and keep tight with everyone else, but that still makes Iran
   nervous.  The source seems to think that Obama in his second term would
   open up to Maduro (and this is something that he is actively working on.)

   The opposition -
   Venezuela is divided into 5 different strata - A, B, C, D, E - A ++ is the
   elite of the elite, the boli-bourgeoisie that that Chavez has very
   successfully vilified. Chavez doesn't give a shit about these guys. His
   base is the D and E.
   Capriles Radonski, Leopoldo Lopez, Maria Corina Machado are all the A++ -
   way too elitist. They can't win over the chavista vote.
   The only one that has a real chance is Pablo Perez - Zulia governor - he's
   actually seen as one of the people.  The conversation between him adn the
   Castros is jsut starting up. (i asked if Perez is talking to Maduro yet -
   he says not yet.)

   guess who has been most cooperative with us lately?   The military elite. 
   These guys have been living the good life. They love women... lots of
   women. THey love booze. They love bora bora. They are easy to bribe. They
   dont care about chavez. they care about maintaining their current
   lifestyles. We've seen a lot of these military elite reach out to us
   lately, trying to insulate themselves in a post-Chavez scenario.

   This is why you'll see Chavez investing a lot of time and money in
   developing the militia. They're his best insurance policy. The more of a
   problem the militia can create on the streets, the more the military elite
   will hestiate before acting against him or his potential successor.

   The intent of the ley de precios is very simple. The money laundering
   schemes in food, pharmaceuticals, energy parts, etc. etc. have gotten
   worse./ Completely unchecked.  This price controls law is the government's
   way of controlling opposition campaign spending. Very straightforward -
   they have the legal justification to intimidate corporations into cutting
   back their support for the opposition, or else, their company is taken
   over. This will allow the state more control of the private sector.

   (side note) - we were talking a bit about a recent PdVSA-Iran joint
   venture. They shifted their main base of operations from Caracas to
   Ankara, though. This has become a trend lately, where a lot of Iran's
   sanctions circumventing oeprations in VZ are quietly being relocated to
   Turkey. Part of Turkey's balancing act with Iran.

   these were the main points. will update with more..little fuzzy from wine
   right now.
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-03-01 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/201547_re-insight-venezuela-update-on-chavez-s-health-power.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","","friedman@att.blackberry.net",""
202526,"Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power struggle, etc. - VZ302
","   It does check out with what I heard in caracas but that increases the
   chance its gossip.

   If this is a source you suspect may have value, you have to take control
   od him. Control means financial, sexual or psychological control to the
   point where he would reveal his sourcing and be tasked. This is difficult
   to do when you are known to be affiliated with an intelligence
   organization. The decision on approach would not come from you but from
   your handler. This is because you're position is too close to the source
   and your judgment by definition suspect. Each meeting would be planned
   between you and your handler and each meeting would have a specific goal
   not built around discussing the topic of interest which would ideally be
   hidden but in analyzing him personally and moving toward control.
   The justification for the op would be specific classes of information and
   on gaining control the first step would be determining his access. If he
   failed the test contact would be terminated.

   the problem of analysts in the field is that they tend to want to discuss
   the topic, which raises the targets awareness, rather than focus on
   establishing the control relationship.

   So from a professional point of view this target knows your affiliation,
   understands your interests and you have not established any control which
   is defined as a high confidence in his obedience.

   So washington is filled with gossip with people whose access is not
   established.

   Just laying this out so you understand the core challenge. To be effective
   your goal is the person and not the subject. Otherwise its gossip which is
   information that you cannot definitively confirm.

   This is intended to start our conversation on your next phase.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Date: Mon, 5 Dec 2011 20:30:10 -0600 (CST)
   To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
   struggle, etc. - VZ302
   Yes, I have much to learn and I may be just an analyst, but i'm not 100%
   incapable of evaluating a source i've known for a while.  I've listened to
   waht you've told me about reading a source (the Turk with the twitch.) I
   figured out what this source's twitch is in reading his eyes.  I've gotten
   much better in evaluating what info to take more seriously and what info
   to disregard. The info i included below is what I would consider more
   seriously and seems to check out with what we've seen elsewhere.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
   To: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, December 5, 2011 9:26:02 PM
   Subject: Fw: Fwd: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
   struggle, etc. - VZ302

   The problem with analyst sources is they are unqualified. This means that
   we don't have clarity on their sources and therefore can't evaluate
   accuracy. This could be valuable humint or pure rumint.

   One of the reasons I want you to execute missions is to learn how to
   evaluate sources. This is a very difficult art but one you must learn.

   The gut is to be trusted only after its well trained.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Date: Mon, 5 Dec 2011 20:14:51 -0600 (CST)
   To: George Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Fwd: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
   struggle, etc. - VZ302

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: watchofficer@statfor.com
   Sent: Monday, December 5, 2011 9:13:24 PM
   Subject: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power struggle,
   etc. - VZ302

   SOURCE: VZ302
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: well-connected VZ source working with Israel
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B - source is anti-Chavez, but I've gotten better at
   reading him over the years to tell when he's feeding me shit and when he's
   giving useful info - his info on the VZ regime has checked out, but i tend
   to be more skeptical on iran-related info
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha, scrub source info and also make sure rest of
   latam team sees this
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   Chavez's health - the tumor started as a growth close to the prostate, it
   spread to the colon, which is what led to a lot of confusion in the OS
   about the treatment of prostate v. colon cancer  in hormonal v.
   chemotherapy. A reliable source on the medical has explained that the
   cancer has spread to the lymph nodes and into the bone marrow up to the
   spine, ie. very serious.

   Chavez temporarily stopped the chemo in order to make an appearance at the
   recent CELAC meeting.  The medical team is made up of both Russian and
   Cuban doctors. Both sides are clashing.  THe Russian team blamed the
   Cubans for an improper surgery the first time in trying to remove the
   tumor. The second surgery over the summer was basically the Russian team
   trying to clean up the Cuban team's mistakes. The Russians complain that
   the Cubans dont have the right imagery treatment to properly treat
   Chavez.  The Cuban medical diagnosis is 2 years. The Russian medical
   diagnosis, due to improper medical equipment, is less than one year. The
   source on the medical team complains that Chavez is a very 'bad patient.'
   He doesn't listen to his doctors, he ceases treatment when he has to make
   a public appearance. Now the Russian and the Chinese doctors are going at
   it because Chavez sought hte advice of a Chinese doctor that advocates
   more natural treatments and the Russians are saying this is horse shit
   treatment. only chavez can get the most politicized medical team in the
   world.
   (note - if you see medical reports on Chavez's health in WSJ or Brazil's
   Veja magazine, it's probably coming from this source.)

   Who replaces Chavez?
   I would keep my eye on FM Nicolas Maduro. Maduro is loyal as a dog to
   Chavez. (the source knows Maduro personally, from the days that Maduro was
   a driver of the metro bus.)  At the same time, maduro is seen as the most
   pragmatic in the regime.  If Chavez's health deteriorates significantly
   before the scheduled Oct 2012 elections, expect him to proclaim Maduro as
   his successor in one way or another. You can already see him propping up
   Maduro in a lot of ways. This is less risky than Chavez going through with
   elections, winning, suddenly dying and then a power struggle among the
   Chavistas breaking out. It will be much harder in this latter scenario for
   Maduro to assert himself against rival Chavistas like Diosdado Cabello,
   Rafiel Ramirez, etc.

   Remember that there are four key players propping up the regime - China,
   Cuba, Russia, Iran. All four are split on how to manage a post-Chavez
   regime. China and Russia are more insulated, as they've tried to get away
   from Chavez the personality, to preserving Chavismo, the regime. Russia
   has set up a specific task force (note the Patrushev visits) to help
   manage the post-chavez transition. Both China and Russia are backing
   Maduro as their preferred successor. Cuba, however, is in trouble.  They
   can't count on a Maduro to continue subsidizing them with thousands of
   barrels of oil every day. No one is really paying attention to Cuba - they
   can;t count on the Europeans for investment. Without VZ, they're screwed.
   The Cubans so far have been backing Adan Chavez (Chavez's brother) as the
   preferred candidate, but he doesnt have the same following. Cuba may shift
   to backing Maduro. (At this point in the convo, i brought up the
   possibility of Cuba, having the best intel on VZ, using that intel to
   leverage with the US and open up its options - he agreed that's what the
   Castros will do to survive but he hasnt seen serious signs of this.. yet.)

   Maduro is seen as more of a Lula candidate. He has a following, he has
   charisma, but he's also a balancer. He's the kind of guy that would open
   up to the US and keep tight with everyone else, but that still makes Iran
   nervous.  The source seems to think that Obama in his second term would
   open up to Maduro (and this is something that he is actively working on.)

   The opposition -
   Venezuela is divided into 5 different strata - A, B, C, D, E - A ++ is the
   elite of the elite, the boli-bourgeoisie that that Chavez has very
   successfully vilified. Chavez doesn't give a shit about these guys. His
   base is the D and E.
   Capriles Radonski, Leopoldo Lopez, Maria Corina Machado are all the A++ -
   way too elitist. They can't win over the chavista vote.
   The only one that has a real chance is Pablo Perez - Zulia governor - he's
   actually seen as one of the people.  The conversation between him adn the
   Castros is jsut starting up. (i asked if Perez is talking to Maduro yet -
   he says not yet.)

   guess who has been most cooperative with us lately?   The military elite. 
   These guys have been living the good life. They love women... lots of
   women. THey love booze. They love bora bora. They are easy to bribe. They
   dont care about chavez. they care about maintaining their current
   lifestyles. We've seen a lot of these military elite reach out to us
   lately, trying to insulate themselves in a post-Chavez scenario.

   This is why you'll see Chavez investing a lot of time and money in
   developing the militia. They're his best insurance policy. The more of a
   problem the militia can create on the streets, the more the military elite
   will hestiate before acting against him or his potential successor.

   The intent of the ley de precios is very simple. The money laundering
   schemes in food, pharmaceuticals, energy parts, etc. etc. have gotten
   worse./ Completely unchecked.  This price controls law is the government's
   way of controlling opposition campaign spending. Very straightforward -
   they have the legal justification to intimidate corporations into cutting
   back their support for the opposition, or else, their company is taken
   over. This will allow the state more control of the private sector.

   (side note) - we were talking a bit about a recent PdVSA-Iran joint
   venture. They shifted their main base of operations from Caracas to
   Ankara, though. This has become a trend lately, where a lot of Iran's
   sanctions circumventing oeprations in VZ are quietly being relocated to
   Turkey. Part of Turkey's balancing act with Iran.

   these were the main points. will update with more..little fuzzy from wine
   right now.
","2011-12-06 03:43:19",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/202526_re-insight-venezuela-update-on-chavez-s-health-power.html","friedman@att.blackberry.net","","bhalla@stratfor.com",""
204278,"[alpha] INSIGHT - MYANMAR - political struggles - via CN65
","   CN65 has a Burmese source that was educated at LSE and was until recently
   working in Beijing as trade and investment adviser for a well connected
   firm there.  He is now back in Myanmar.  CN65 sent him our latest Myanmar
   piece and his response is below.

   SOURCE: via CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes, but without attribution (please speak with me first)
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Speak with me before any publication
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

         It covers all the main bits and it is exactly more or less what
         everyone feels.
         What is quite interesting for me (and this is just me) is there is a
         power game being played between the president and the
         vice-president.
         The VP is very close to the Chinese and is generally very unpopular.
         I think all these visits etc is going to marginalise the VP even
         more.
         We shall see.
","2011-12-07 18:09:22",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/204278_-alpha-insight-myanmar-political-struggles-via-cn65-.html","marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
204627,"Re: INSIGHT - military intervention in Syria, post withdrawal status of forces
","   That makes sense. No one is planning a war.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Date: Tue, 6 Dec 2011 19:04:13 -0600 (CST)
   To: <secure@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - military intervention in Syria, post withdrawal
   status of forces
   the NATO forces that conducted the Libya campaign are still in
   replenishment mode. i asked how long it would take to replenish their
   supplies and be ready for another operations, and they said depending on
   the orders they get it could be done in a matter of weeks if needed, but
   they haven't been put on that kind of an urgent schedule yet

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: secure@stratfor.com
   Sent: Tuesday, December 6, 2011 6:57:59 PM
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - military intervention in Syria, post withdrawal
   status of forces

   sorry, just remembering more bits.

   when we were talking about wehther the US would be able to convey the
   message to Iran starting in 2012 that the US isn't going anywhere, they
   stressed that Iran has its eyes all over Ali al Salim air base in Kuwait. 
   Expect to see a pretty signfiicant build=up of aircraft there

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: secure@stratfor.com
   Sent: Tuesday, December 6, 2011 6:55:29 PM
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - military intervention in Syria, post withdrawal
   status of forces

   one more thing, i was talking on the way out to one of the USAF women in
   the office who introduced me to her husband working out of the J8 Force
   Structure office. When we were talking about Iran, she was talking about
   how incredible some of the imagery was coming out of Isfahan post-blast.
   It was pretty clear that she was talking sabotage ops. Those blasts
   weren't all accidental

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: secure@stratfor.com
   Sent: Tuesday, December 6, 2011 6:49:18 PM
   Subject: INSIGHT - military intervention in Syria, post withdrawal status
   of forces

   A few points I wanted to highlight from meetings today --

   I spent most of the afternoon at the Pentagon with the USAF strategic
   studies group - guys who spend their time trying to understand and explain
   to the USAF chief the big picture in areas where they're operating in. It
   was just myself and four other guys at the Lieutenant Colonel level,
   including one French and one British representative who are liaising with
   the US currently out of DC.

   They wanted to grill me on the strategic picture on Syria, so after that I
   got to grill them on the military picture. There is still a very low level
   of understanding of what is actually at stake in Syria, what's the
   strategic interest there, the Turkish role, the Iranian role, etc. After a
   couple hours of talking, they said without saying that SOF teams
   (presumably from US, UK, France, Jordan, Turkey) are already on the ground
   focused on recce missions and training opposition forces. One Air Force
   intel guy (US) said very carefully that there isn't much of a Free Syrian
   Army to train right now anyway, but all the operations being done now are
   being done out of 'prudence.'  The way it was put to me was, 'look at this
   way - the level of information known on Syrian OrBat this month is the
   best it's been since 2001.'  They have been told to prepare contingencies
   and be ready to act within 2-3 months, but they still stress that this is
   all being done as contingency planning, not as a move toward escalation.

   I kept pressing on the question of what these SOF teams would be working
   toward, and whether this would lead to an eventual air camapign to give a
   Syrian rebel group cover. They pretty quickly distanced themselves from
   that idea, saying that the idea 'hypothetically' is to commit guerrilla
   attacks, assassination campaigns, try to break the back of the Alawite
   forces, elicit collapse from within. There wouldn't be a need for air
   cover, and they wouldn't expect these Syrian rebels to be marching in
   columns anyway.

   They emphasized how the air campaign in Syria makes Libya look like a
   piece of cake.  Syrian air defenses are a lot more robust and are much
   denser, esp around Damascus and on the borders with Israel, Turkey. THey
   are most worried about mobile air defenses, particularly the SA-17s that
   they've been getting recently.  It's still a doable mission, it's just not
   an easy one.

   The main base they would use is Cyprus, hands down. Brits and FRench would
   fly out of there. They kept stressing how much is stored at Cyprus and how
   much recce comes out of there. The group was split on whether Turkey would
   be involved, but said Turkey would be pretty critical to the mission to
   base stuff out of there. EVen if Turkey had a poltiical problem with
   Cyprus, they said there is no way the Brits and the FRench wouldn't use
   Cyprus as their main air force base. Air Force Intel guy seems pretty
   convinced that the Turks won't participate (he seemed pretty pissed at
   them.)

   There still seems to be a lot of confusion over what a military
   intervention involving an air campaign would be designed to achieve.   It
   isn't clear cut for them geographically like in Libya, and you can't just
   create an NFZ over Homs, Hama region. This would entail a countrywide SEAD
   campaign lasting the duration of the war.  They dont believe air
   intervention would happen unless there was enough media attention on a
   massacre, like the Ghadafi move against Benghazi. They think the US would
   have a high tolerance for killings as long as it doesn't reach that very
   public stage.  Theyre also questiioning the skills of the Syrian forces
   that are operating the country's air defenses currently and how
   signfiicant the Iranian presence is there. Air Force Intel guy is most
   obsessed with the challenge of taking out Syria's ballistic missile
   capabilities and chem weapons.  With Israel rgiht there and the regime
   facing an existential crisis, he sees that as a major complication to any
   military intervention.

   The post 2011 SOFA with Iraq is still being negotiated. These guys were
   hoping that during Biden's visit that he would announce a deal with
   Maliki, but no such luck.  They are gambling ont he idea that the Iraqis
   remember the iran-iraq war and that maliki is not going to want to face
   the threat of Iranian jets entering Iraqi air space.  THey say that most
   US fighter jets are already out of Iraq and transferred to Kuwait. They
   explained that's the beauty of the air force, the base in Kuwait is just a
   hop, skip and jump away from their bases in Europe, ie. very easy to
   rapidly build up when they need to.  They don't seem concerned about the
   US ability to restructure its forces to send a message to Iran. They gave
   the example of the USS Enterprise that was supposed to be out of
   commission already and got extended another couple years to send to the
   gulf. WHen the US withdraws, we'll have at least 2 carriers in the gulf
   out of centcom and one carrier in the Med out of EuCom. I asked if the
   build-up in Kuwait and the carrier deployments are going to be enough to
   send a message to Iran that the US isn't going anywhere. They responded
   that Iran will get the message if they read the Centcom Web Site. STarting
   Jan. 1 expect them to be publishing all over the place where the US is
   building up.

   Another concern they have about an operation in Syria is whether Iran
   could impede operations out of Balad air force base in Iraq.

   The French representative was of hte opinion that Syria won't be a
   libya-type situation in that France would be gung-ho about going in. Not
   in an election year. The UK rep also emphasized UK reluctance but said
   that the renegotiation of the EU treaty undermines the UK role and that UK
   would be looking for ways to reassert itself on the continent ( i dont
   really think a syria campaign is the way to do that.) UK guy mentioned as
   an aside that the air force base commander at Cyprus got switched out from
   a maintenance guy to a guy that flew Raptors, ie someone that understands
   what it means to start dropping bombs. He joked that it was probably a
   coincidence.

   Prior to that, I had a meeting with an incoming Kuwaiti diplomat (will be
   coded as KU301.) His father was high up in the regime, always by the
   CP's/PM's side. The diplo himself still seems to be getting his feet wet
   in DC (the new team just arrived less than 2 weeks ago,) but he made
   pretty clear that Kuwait was opening the door to allowing US to build up
   forces as needed.  THey already have a significant presence there, and a
   lot of them will be on 90-day rotations. He also said that the SOFA that
   the US signs with Baghdad at the last minute will be worded in such a way
   that even allowing one trainer in the country can be construed to mean
   what the US wants in terms of keeping forces in Iraq. Overall, I didnt get
   the impression from him that Kuwait is freaked out about the US leaving. 
   Everyhting is just getting rearranged.  The Kuwaitis used to be much
   better at managing their relations with Iran, but ever since that spy ring
   story came out  a year ago, it's been bad.  He doesn't think Iran has
   significant covert capabililiteis in the GCC states, though they are
   trying. Iranian activity is mostly propaganda focused. He said that while
   KSA and Bahrain they can deal with it as needed and black out the media,
   Kuwait is a lot more open and thus provides Iran with more oppotunity to
   shape perceptions (he used to work in inforamtion unit in Kuwait.) He says
   there is a sig number of kuwaitis that listen to Iranian media like Al
   Alam especially.

   On the Kuwaiti political scene - the government is having a harder time
   dealing with a more emboldened opposition, but the opposition is still
   extremely divided, esp among the Islamists. The MPs now all have to go
   back to their tribes to rally support for the elections to take place in
   Feb. Oftentimes an MP in Kuwait city will find out that he has lost
   support back home with the tribe, and so a lot of moeny is handed out.The
   govt is hoping that witha  clean slate they can quiet the opposition down.
   A good way of managing the opposition he said is to refer cases to the
   courts, where they can linger forever. good way for the govt to buy time. 
   He doesnt believe the Arab League will take significant action against
   Syria - no one is interested in military intervention. they just say it to
   threaten it.
","2011-12-07 02:05:46",1,"2012-03-06 07:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/204627_re-insight-military-intervention-in-syria-post-withdrawal.html","friedman@att.blackberry.net","","bhalla@stratfor.com",""
206896,"[alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Alawite officer defections? - ME1473 and
	ME1507
","   ** The coup scenario seems most likely in my opinion. And if these reports
   of Alawite officer defections are true, then that is a potential sign that
   the unity of the army (that matters) is breaking.  There are also rumors
   of the Syrian FM resigning, but a source claims that Bashar refused his
   resignation for fear of exposing the problems he's having within the
   regime.

   SOURCE: ME1473 and ME1507
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1473 is a well-connected Syrian political analyst; 
   ME1507 is a prominent Syrian opposition activist based out of Beirut
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: ME1473 - B-C; ME1507 - C (opposition bias)
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B-C
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   ME1473 and ME1507 say military defections are a real challenge both to the
   defectors and the regime. Army defectors are instantly killed should they
   be arrested.  One Alawite officer (lieutenant colonel Mohammad Musa)
   defected during the summer and was immediately killed. The two sources
   gave e an identical assessment about regime reaction to defections.
   Defectors that are captured by the forces of the regime are killed with no
   regard to their sectarian affiliation. Since the Alawites operate as a
   cohesive network, defections among them have been more difficult than for
   Sunnis. ME1507 told me that 1200 troops defected yesterday in the north
   and they included five Alawite officers. In Der'a, 20 Alawite officers
   have defected since Asad gave his ominous interview to the ABC. The
   interview, in which Asad said he was not responsible for killing
   demonstrators, has convinced many Alawite officers that Asad is trying to
   exonerate himself and implicate his Alawite supporters. He says Asad gave
   a stupid interview that will accelerate a Alawite led coup to oust him.

   ME1473 says a military coup in Syria is likely to happen within few weeks.
   He says there are many hurdles to overcome before a coup occurs. Alawite
   officers have demands and they want to make sure they will not be targeted
   after Asad's overthrow. He says what is currently being debated includes
   surrendering political authority to Sunnis, while Alawites maintain
   control of the army and Sunnis assume control of the air force. He says
   the post-Asad political system in Syria will observe the presence of a
   delicate balance of power that would make it virtually impossible for
   members of one sect to persecute another sect. The ouster of Asad is a
   matter of successfully dealing with the nuances of Syrian society and its
   heterogenous components.
","2011-12-15 01:26:17",1,"2012-03-15 20:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/206896_-alpha-insight-syria-alawite-officer-defections-me1473-and.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
209631,"INSIGHT - SYRIA - military/intel reshuffle
","9","2008-07-11 21:52:11",1,"2012-03-13 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/209631_insight-syria-military-intel-reshuffle-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,watchofficer@stratfor.com",""
209776,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - CHINA - China and Latam in 2012 - CN13
","   This is awesome.

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Dec 16, 2011, at 5:37, Allison Fedirka <allison.fedirka@stratfor.com>
   wrote:

     SOURCE: CN13
     ATTRIBUTION: Sino-Latam expert
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Founder of SinoLatin Capital
     PUBLICATION: Yes, with no attribution.  Per Karen's request.
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: A/B
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

     So here is what I see happening in 2012: Chinese companies will realize
     that many of their investments in Latam have been failures:
     - Example: Beidahuang in Argentina (Rio Negro)
     - Example: Zijin Mining in Peru - Examples: Shunde Ruixin in Chile

     Failures have happened for a number of reasons:
     1. Lack of understanding of how to do deals overseas, and especially in
     Latam
     2. Perception that the having a relationship with Latam government (ie.
     The President or whomever) is good enough
     3. The President of the country in many cases can't control what is
     going on in a particular province, and Chinese firms need to understand
     that the local political situation is what really matters (national
     politics is almost irrelevant)
     4. Not hiring competent advisors. Not hiring advisors at all. Why?
     Mainly because it's difficult for Chinese firms to pay money for
     \"advice\" and also in some cases there isn't a relationship with the
     advisor. So the trust isn't there
     5. Overpaying for some assets.
     6. Underpaying for some assets. In instances where Chinese underpaid,
     they bought the wrong asset. It may have been cheap, but that's because
     it was located next to the narcotrafficker drug logistics corridor :)

     The lessons learned? Those that have lost face won't look inwardly. They
     will blame it \"on the Peruvians.\"
     a:,*aa(R)*aa*\"c,S:*e^2*aa-oS:ae**eu*a:,*aaYEN 1/2. Others will be
     more circumspect. There is a Biblical proverb that says that if you
     rebuke a wise man, he will appreciate it and grow wiser. And there are a
     number of wise people running Chinese companies. Smart people will learn
     from their mistakes and do things better the next time around.

     Another trend that I see is that Chinese companies will start doing
     manufacturing deals. Particularly in Brazil. Excavator companies like
     Sany or Zoomlion will buy manufacturing plants in Brazil because they
     need to get into the Brazil market. There's going to be an explosion of
     activity in this sector.

     What isn't clear is what China will do in the Castro-Chavez sphere of
     influence (e.g. Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua). In Cuba
     there are Chinese firms that built offshore oil rigs. In Venezuela they
     are building rail lines. And in Bolivia they are trying to get a hold of
     lithium. But I don't see much real investment capital being put at risk.
     For all the talk about China's \"investments\" in Venezuela, a careful
     review will show that China isn't really investing. They are just buying
     cheap oil from the Venezuelans, selling it at a markup to the Americans,
     and with the profits they build railroads (with Chinese equipment,
     contractors, etc). China wins in every which way without putting down a
     dime of their own capital. On a related note, a month or so ago, thieves
     broke into the house of the Head of China Railroad Group in Caracas. It
     seems the fellow was held up at gunpoint while the looters stole
     everything that wasn't nailed down. Don't get me going on what is going
     on in Venezuela. What a mess. It will end very badly for the Chavistas.

     In the Taiwan sphere of influence (Caribbean, Central America,
     Paraguay), I see China making economic inroads. But I don't think anyone
     cares anymore if the particular country recognizes Taiwan. China is
     doing things in Guatemala, the Dominican Republic, etc. From a political
     standpoint, nobody seems to care.

     Latin America's 'Honeymoon Period' with China is transitioning into a
     more mature marriage. On the plus side, both sides are understanding
     each other better. On the negative side, both sides are understanding
     each other better :). The more you get to know someone, the more the
     warts come out. Chinese firms are increasingly seen as not transparent,
     culturally insensitive, capricious and greedy. Latins are viewed by the
     Chinese as un-serious, lazy, and burdened with overly complex labor
     laws, environmental groups and excessive bureaucracy. Will any of this
     impede business? In my book no. This is a marriage in which both sides
     really, really need each other. China needs to acquire resources in
     order to grow while Latin America needs to sell resources in order to
     grow. I think that 2012 will be another year of \"settling in\" and both
     sides will get more and more used to each other. I liken it to being in
     the bathroom brushing your teeth while your wife is on the john. When
     you get to that point, you know the honeymoon period is over :).

     Our firm is still deeply committed to China and Latin America. We act as
     a bridge that allows both sides to understand each other and we're
     betting our personal and professional careers on the growing linkages
     between the two regions. So for all the perceived negativity above,
     please interpret it for what it is: an un-jaundiced view of the
     situation that isn't prejudicial or political. We've been at this now
     for some time and despite the hiccups, we're still very optimistic. We
     want China and Latin America to succeed, and we see things getting a

     --
     Allison Fedirka
     South America Correspondent
     STRATFOR
     US Cell: +1.512.496.3466 A| Brazil Cell: +55.11.9343.7752
     www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-12-16 23:34:10",1,"2012-03-05 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/209776_re-alpha-insight-china-china-and-latam-in-2012-cn13-.html","hooper@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
209919,"[alpha] RE-SENDING WITH SOURCE CODE - INSIGHT - PNA - Ideology
 behind leadership at Ma'an News Agency - PS200
","   Per Jenn's request.

   On 12/17/11 11:03 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     Sending straight to alpha because no WO on. Replying to this thread
     because it's in reference to the bias we should be aware of from Ma'an
     News Agency, whose story Mikey just pasted in response to the insight on
     what's happening at Pal camps in Lebanon. Source is new, just met him on
     my trip. He's a journalist who works for Ma'an. Insight below is his
     response to my questions about wtf his boss was saying in the article I
     pasted below the insight ('Palestinian editor says Jerusalem will be
     liberated with \"military honor\"'):

     Nasser [Ma'an editor in chief Nasr al-Lahham] is the man but he's a nut.
     I know him well. Israelis know him too, he used to report from the
     Knesset and interviewed I think their president once at his home. 
     His point here, seems to me, is Abbas' strategy of building institutions
     and restoring security, rather than violently resisting, is key to
     liberating Palestine. He's telling the recruits they're just as
     important and valuable as Hezbollah and don't let anyone tell you
     otherwise 
     Here's the inside scoop on Nasser and the key to understanding how Maan
     remains the only truly independent news source in Palestine: He's a
     decades long supporter of the Popular Front, was president of the PFLP
     at Bethlehem Univ. and went to jail six years for it. 
     As a PFLP supporter, he detests organized religion and its mixing in
     politics (Hamas) just as much as he hates
     materialism/capitalism/corruption (Fatah). (On that second point, he's
     probably the most beloved media personality in the country and has huge
     influence, yet he never thought to move out of the refugee camp where he
     was born. Badass.) 
     The other important thing to know about Nasser, more important than
     anything else I just mentioned, is that he is batshit insane. Really do
     love the guy but something is off up there, trust me. He will spout out
     the craziest theories every once in a while ** 
     ----------------------------------------

     Palestinian editor says Jerusalem will be liberated with \"military
     honor\"

     Ma'an News Agency reports at 0429 gmt that its editor in chief Nasr
     al-Lahham, delivered a speech to a group of 600 Palestinian security
     personnel at Jericho's Palestinian Academy for Security Sciences, also
     known as Al-Istiqlal University. The event was attended by several
     high-ranking security figures such as Tawfiq al-Tirawi, head of the
     university board of management, and Nayif Jaradat, the academy's acting
     president.

     The report says that Al-Lahham \"spoke about the occupation and how most
     of the young Jewish people do not know the meaning of the word
     occupation, because they have been brainwashed by the Israeli military
     and media establishments.\"

     He praises Palestinian [National] Authority (PNA) President Mahmud
     Abbas, and likens him to Palestinian figures such as Yasir Arafat and
     Khalid Mish'al, explaining that \"all of them refused to give up on any
     right.\"

     Al-Lahham calls for an end to the criticism of Palestinians via
     satellite television and urges the media to respect the \"conscience of
     the Palestinian youth,\" adding that such criticism is tantamount to
     \"criticizing a whole generation's will of resistance and defiance.\" He
     continues: \"You are the future. I stand before you, and I see no
     difference between you and Hezbollah fighters in south Lebanon. They
     liberated their homeland and you will liberate Jerusalem, God willing.\"
     He concludes his speech by saying \"I swear in the pure blood of your
     father that we will pray in Jerusalem and you will liberate it with your
     military honour.\"

     Source: Ma'an News Agency website, Bethlehem, in Arabic 0429 gmt 30 Nov
     11

     BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc 011211 sg

     On 12/16/11 2:59 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

    Fatah figure denies plan to eliminate Salafists in Lebanese refugee camp 
                                                                             
    Text of report by independent, non-governmental Palestinian Ma'an News   
    Agency website                                                           
                                                                             
    [\"Exclusive\" report: \"Al-Maqdah: Fatah not preparing plan to eliminate   
    Jund al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam\"]                                        
                                                                             
    Bethlehem, 15 December (Ma'an) - Munir al-Maqdah, commander of the Fatah 
    movement's general headquarters in Lebanon, denied that Palestinian      
    forces in the Ayn al-Hulwah refugee camp in south Lebanon are planning   
    to eliminate operatives from the Jund al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam         
    organizations. These organizations have been accused of being behind the 
    assassination of 2nd lieutenant Ashraf al-Qadiri, escort of Mahmud Isa,  
    also known as Al-Linu, commander of the Palestinian Armed Struggle.      
                                                                             
    Al-Maqdah told Ma'an's radio network that the political leadership in    
    Ayn al-Hulwah has set up a committee to investigate the assassination,   
    but not to eliminate any particular operative or individual. He said     
    that no one is untouchable, no matter what happens, and that anyone      
    whose name is called should immediately head to the special committee in 
    the camp, and if that person is found guilty, he will be turned over to  
    the Lebanese army.                                                       
                                                                             
    Al-Maqdah said \"there are no operatives from Fatah al-Islam or Jund      
    al-Sham in the camp, and this was an isolated incident.\" He added that   
    there are ongoing meetings in the camp \"because there are people who     
    want to spark clashes in the camps, both internally and with their       
    neighbours, and undermine the stability and security in the camps.\"      
                                                                             
    Asked about the reconciliation and the latest meeting between            
    Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas and HAMAS Political Bureau chief      
    Khalid Mish'al in Cairo, Al-Maqdah said this was a positive step towards 
    the future Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital. He said the  
    reconciliation is a Palestinian demand and a force to confront Israel    
    with, and expressed hope that this demand will be fully and clearly      
    realized.                                                                
                                                                             
    Source: Ma'an News Agency website, Bethlehem, in Arabic 1851 gmt 15 Dec  
    11                                                                       
                                                                             
    BBC Mon ME1 MEEauosc 161211 nan                                          

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2011

 --

       On 12/15/11 7:44 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

         Fatah Official Says Jund al-Sham Killed al-Lino's Bodyguard

         http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/23367-fatah-official-says-jund-al-sham-killed-al-linos-bodyguard

         by Naharnet Newsdesk 36 minutes ago

         A Fatah official has accused members of the militant group Jund
         al-Sham of assassinating the bodyguard of Palestinian Armed Struggle
         chief Mahmoud Issa, who goes by the nom de guerre of al-Lino.

         The official, who refused to be identified, told al-Liwaa daily
         published Thursday that a Jund al-Sham militant opened fire on
         28-year-old Ashraf al-Qaderi at the Palestinian refugee camp of Ain
         el-Hilweh on Wednesday, killing him instantly.

         Cautious calm prevailed on Thursday in the camp that lies near the
         southern port city of Sidon.

         But the official said that the remaining members of Jund al-Sham are
         seeking to create tension after several security incidents, bombings
         and shootings at the camp.

         He added that several members of the militant group had been
         arrested by the Palestinian Armed Struggle and handed over to
         Lebanese authorities.

         The official hinted that al-Qaderi's killing was aimed at taking
         vengeance at the arrests.

         Keeping an eye on those cookey Palestinians with their guns and
         their shooting. Oy vey! [nick]

         Palestinian commander's bodyguard killed in Lebanon

         http://www.nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=342778

         December 15, 2011

         The bodyguard of a top Palestinian commander was shot dead on
         Wednesday in a refugee camp in southern Lebanon, a local official
         said.

         \"At around 10:00 p.m., a masked gunman shot and killed Ashraf Qadiri
         at his shop here in the Ain al-Hilweh camp,\" said Munir Maqdah, in
         charge of security at the camp near the southern coastal city of
         Saida.

         Qadiri was a bodyguard for Mohammed Abdel Hamid Issa, alias
         \"Al-Lino,\" the head of Palestinian party Fatah's police force in Ain
         al-Hilweh.

         Maqdah said Fatah forces had gone on alert and deployed throughout
         the camp, adding that the shooter had not yet been identified.

         Wednesday's shooting was the second such incident this week
         targeting one of Issa's bodyguards.

         Ain al-Helweh, the largest Palestinian camp in the country, is home
         to about 50,000 refugees and is known to harbor extremists and
         fugitives.

         By long-standing convention, the Lebanese army does not enter the
         country's 12 refugee camps, leaving security inside to the
         Palestinians themselves.

         The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian refugees
         (UNRWA) estimates that some 425,000 Palestinian refugees are living
         in Lebanon, a country with a population of four million.

         Others, however, estimate the number to be closer to 250,000.

         -AFP/NOW Lebanon

         --

         On 11/29/11 12:03 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           I don't think al-Saiqa has been very active since at least the
           1990s.  Their militant history has as far as I'm aware always been
           fighting within Lebanon and Syria, not towards Israel (though they
           did claim some int'l terror attacks in the 1980s).  That is all
           very different from the rocket attacks the last 24 hours, not to
           mention that Saiqa didn't claim those.   

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: \"Marc Lanthemann\" <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
           To: \"alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
           Sent: Tuesday, November 29, 2011 11:30:13 AM
           Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA/LEBANON - Syrian activity in Pal
           camps -        ME1403

           SOURCE: ME1403
           ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
           SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Fatah military source in Lebanon
           PUBLICATION: yes
           SOURCE RELIABILITY: B - good track record in reporting
           ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
           SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
           SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

           the PA has damning evidence about the intention of the Syrian
           regime to cause trouble in Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon.
           Dozens of Syrian men have in recent weeks moved into major camps
           such as Ain al-Hilwa, Sabra & Shatila, al-Biddawi and al-Burj
           al-Shimali. The Syrians appear bent of exploding the security
           situation in the camps should the security situation in Syria go
           out of control. This will be part of the Syrian regime's efforts
           to hold Lebanon hostage and to use it in order to negotiate a deal
           with the West.

           The Syrians believe that the French are leading the Western
           efforts to isolate the Syrian regime. They are also aware that the
           French feel they have a moral and historical responsibility
           towards Lebanon. Therefore, the Syrians seem to want to use
           Lebanon to stop the French diplomatic drive against the regime in
           Damascus. The Syrians arriving into camps in Lebanon belong to
           al-Saeqa Palestinian guerrilla movement, which is largely seen as
           an extention of the Syrian army intelligence.

           --
           Sean Noonan
           Tactical Analyst
           STRATFOR
           T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
           www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-12-17 19:44:13",1,"2012-02-27 02:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/209919_-alpha-re-sending-with-source-code-insight-pna-ideology.html","bayless.parsley@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
211021,"Re: [alpha] RE-SENDING WITH SOURCE CODE - INSIGHT - ISRAEL - Convo
 with an IDF intel officer - IL200
","   sorry IL200 not IS

   On 12/17/11 12:43 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     This is per Jenn's request.

     On 12/15/11 10:30 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       Source is an old friend from college who is now a major in IDF
       intelligence. Had not seen one another in years. Very secretive of
       what they do; seemed pretty suspicious about what exactly I was doing
       in Israel. Nothing too groundbreaking, just some interesting
       observations.

       - When I used the term \"Arab Spring\" early on in our conversation, I
       was reprimanded. \"Don't call it the Arab Spring. We call it 'The
       Upheaval' where I work.\" When I tried to explain that we typically
       scoff at calling it the Arab Spring as well, I was cut off, so that I
       could hear another lecture about how horrible Arabs were. Israelis
       aren't the nicest people most of the time.

       - Opsec at IDI (Israel Defense Intelligence) seems pretty extreme. If
       you try to email this person, you don't hear back for a month, minimum
       - usually even longer. Reason is because no websites that have
       passwords are allowed at work. Emails for internal comms only.

       - Source is in D.C. frequently for meetings with DIA. When I asked if
       they are often trained by the Americans, the response was a smirk and,
       \"We like to think we don't need the Americans to train us.\" IDI,
       source said, is \"more creative\" than American counterparts. The way
       they work sounded similar in philosophy to STRATFOR, actually. For
       example, there is a specific officer who is referred to as the
       \"Devil's advocate\" at the IDI offices. This person is allowed to
       challenge any random paper on any topic, produced by someone of any
       rank. If a paper is written that says, hypothetically, that Bashar
       will fall in three weeks, the Devil's advocate can then say, \"Okay,
       I'm challenging this assertion. Now, I want you to write the exact
       opposite argument and play out the logic.\" Source did not deny that
       they, too, can fall prey to groupthink like any other intelligence
       body, but was a firm believe that this was a good way to avoid it.

       - \"Where are the moderates in the Muslim world?\" That was the theme of
       the conversation on source's end. If you listen to this person, you
       come away with the notion that the Israelis seem extremely unnerved
       about the future of the region, with the primary focus being on the
       Iranian threat. (Again, this is not groundbreaking insight.)

       - Source openly said that none of this shit would be happening right
       now had Obama not abandoned Mubarak like he did. When I later
       criticized Bush for shattering the balance of power in the PG, source
       shot back, \"Well what about Obama?\" I said that Obama had maintained
       the same FP as Bush, a claim with which the source agreed. And yet the
       source loves Bush's policies and hates Obama's. Israelis are not a fan
       of Barack.

       - Because Obama abandoned Mubarak, source lamented the fact that Egypt
       was no longer the leader of the Arab world. This does not mean source
       believes the MB is on the verge of completely taking power in Egypt -
       (I specifically asked if that was the belief the IDI holds) - but it
       does mean that there is a steep drop in faith that the SCAF has
       ability to maintain the status quo. Overall I found the message on
       Egypt a bit confusing.

       - Part of the reason that the message was confused message imo is
       because the source openly admits that in the IDI, people have a
       singular focus on the outside world. Like STRATFOR, they are largely
       disconnected with domestic politics. So the Syria people identify with
       Syria, the Hezbollah people will jokingly say stuff like, \"I am in
       Hezbollah\" when you ask them their AOR, etc.

       - The IDI is very much focused on the Shiite crest ranging from Iran
       to Lebanon. Iran is the primary threat in the world today. Source was
       heavily concerned with how Yemen plays into this as well; much moreso
       than what we talk about. \"AQAP is in control of south fucking Yemen,
       for God's sake.\" Source says they jokingly refer to AQAP as \"AQHP\"
       after the HP printer bombs that got seized on those DHL flights a few
       years back.

       - The IDI is operating on the assumption that Yemen will be completely
       out of water in eight years. I asked if this was their own assessment
       and source said, \"No, it's public information. You can find it on
       Wikipedia.\" I think it took about one second for the source to realize
       retarded that sounded, citing Wikipedia when you're a major at the
       IDI, and so immediately it was amended with, \"there have been studies
       published.\" Fear about Yemen running out of water is mass migrations
       into KSA, which Iran could exploit.

       - When I said that there were people in the Israeli
       government/military/intel community who reads STRATFOR, source said,
       \"I can check on that for you.\" Thanks.
","2011-12-17 20:01:41",1,"2012-02-27 02:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/211021_re-alpha-re-sending-with-source-code-insight-israel-convo.html","bayless.parsley@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
211492,"RE: RES: Muito obrigado
","    Dear Reva

    Curious destiny - this map was originally drafted, a long time ago, to
   study the radio waves from Navy communication stations in Brasilia and
   Recife.My merit was to see that it was also a geopolitical map.finally it
   will arrive in your office in Washington D.C.

   I will be spending a few days with my wife  (vacation) in New York. I'll
   mail the map from the Big Apple so that it will come to you as quickly as
   possible.

   My postal address remains (hopefully)

   J. A. de Macedo Soares
   SAEI/GSI/PR
   Palacio do Planalto
   Prac,a dos 3 Poderes
   Brasilia/DF - BRAZIL
   CEP: 70150-900

   Glad to know that you will be spending some time in Brazil...we hope it
   will be quieter than the Middle East nowadays

   All the best and do send me a word by e-mail when this map gets to
   Washington

   Jose Antonio

   -----Mensagem original-----
   De: Reva Bhalla
   Para: macesoares@planalto.gov.br
   Enviada em: 19/02/2011 15:01
   Assunto: Re: RES: Muito obrigado

   Jose Antonio,

   You have no idea how happy your email has made me!  I was so heartbroken
   to have lost that map.  I was at a bar catching up with some friends
   yesterday and a guy next to me saw the huge smile that came across my
   face when I saw your message, he turned to me and said 'wow, I would
   like to know what to do to make a girl smile like that!'  I don't think
   he would have ever guessed it had to do with a world map with Brazil in
   the center, haha..

   Muito muito obrigado, Jose Antonio!  You are so wonderful to find and
   send me the map. It will hang proudly in Washington, DC.  I'm also
   making plans for next year to spend at least 6 months to a year in
   Brazil, so can't wait to be back in your part of the world soon enough!

   I hope you've been doing well. The Mideast has kept us sleep-deprived
   for weeks, but the work has been good.

   My home address in DC is:

   Reva Bhalla
   1400 S. Joyce Street # 311
   Arlington, VA 22202

   Likewise, please send me your address, as there is something that I
   would like to send you as a thank you for all the kindness and
   hospitality you displayed during my visit to your beautiful country.

   Thank you again!! 

   Abrac,os,
   Reva

   On Feb 18, 2011, at 3:09 PM, macesoares@planalto.gov.br
   <mailto:macesoares@planalto.gov.br>  wrote:

   February 18, 2011
    
   Dear Ms. Reva,
    
   We managed to find another copy of the map that was stolen.
   We were really saddened at the prospect of your office not having,
   finally,
   a world map with the right point of view.
    
   To what address should  I send this very suspicious looking tube with
   the map?
    
   best regards
    
   Jose Antonio

   -----Mensagem original-----
   De: Reva Bhalla [ mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com
   <mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com> ]
   Enviada em: quarta-feira, 12 de janeiro de 2011 21:47
   Para: Jose Antonio Macedo Soares
   Assunto: Muito obrigado

   Senhor Macedo Soares,

   I wanted to express my gratitude again to you and your colleagues for
   taking the time to meet with me in Brasilia. It was an honor and
   privilege for me to engage in such a stimulating discussion in the
   situation room and to be given a tour of the presidential palace.  This
   is a side of Brazil that not many people get to see, and I have you to
   thank for giving me that opportunity.

   I have terrible news, though!  That beautiful map that you so kindly
   gave to me was stolen from me in the airport. I had it in a case
   attached to my bag, and the next thing I knew, it was gone.  I've been
   calling the airports and airlines for the past several days hoping to
   track it down, but haven't had any luck so far.  I am heartbroken, to
   say the least. I really loved that map and was so honored to have it. In
   any case, thank you so much for giving it to me in the first place. It
   was a really special gift.

   After spending time with the cariocas in Rio, the Itamaraty crowd in
   Brasilia, the gauchos in Rio Grande do Sul and all kinds of Paulistas in
   SP, I am leaving your beautiful country with a much better understanding
   of the Brazilian soul.  I plan to be back soon and hope to see you
   again. Please let me know if you have plans to visit Washington, DC or
   Texas. We would love to host you.

   In the meantime, I hope we can stay in touch and collaborate on various
   projects in the future.

   With warmest wishes,

   Reva

   Reva Bhalla
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Analyst - Middle East, South Asia, Latin America
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com <http://www.stratfor.com>
   +1 (512) 699-8385 (mobile)
","2011-02-20 02:41:25",1,"2012-03-26 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/211492_re-res-muito-obrigado-.html","macesoares@planalto.gov.br","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com",""
211497,"FW: [Analytical & Intelligence Comments] RE: WikiLeaks and the Afghan War
","We need to make this guy our friend.=20



-----Original Message-----
From: responses-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:responses-bounces@stratfor.com=
] On Behalf Of vinay448@yahoo.co.in
Sent: Thursday, July 29, 2010 5:38 AM
To: responses@stratfor.com
Subject: [Analytical & Intelligence Comments] RE: WikiLeaks and the Afghan =
War

MAJ GEN VINAY BHATNAGAR sent a message using the contact form at=20=20
https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

One of the interesting aspects brought out by these leaks is the support th=
e=20=20
ISI has given the Taliban to attack Indian Missions and Activities in=20=20
Afganistan. These are authetic reports, acknowledged by US officals. US Aid=
=20=20
to Pakistan is also diverted to support other terrorist organisations, whic=
h=20=20
not only act in India, but also against US interests in Afganistan and=20=
=20
Pakistan.
Pakistan, as a nation has always craftly followed the principle of \" Runnin=
g=20=20
with the Hare, while Hunting with the Hound\"
.We in India have no reason to ever believe the soundness of their desire t=
o=20=20
have peace with India-- Peace would destroy the traditional muscle the=20=
=20
Pakistani Army wields in running that country.
As for the US and it's Allies in Afganistan, they have no option but to \"Gr=
in=20=20
On\" at the intricacies that  unfold !




Source:=20=20
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100726_wikileaks_and_afghan_war?utm_source=
=3DGWeekly&utm_medium=3Demail&utm_campaign=3D1007027&utm_content=3Dreadmore=
&elq=3D7d68179903a242c1a84164085bfc85fc
","2010-07-29 13:32:00",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/211497_fw-analytical-and-intelligence-comments-re-wikileaks-and-the.html","scott.stewart@stratfor.com","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com",""
213877,"INSIGHT - Brazil - energy policy
"," From a lunch meeting with Dilma Rousseff's former energy advisor for  
Rio Grande do Sul

The source downloaded a ton of the most recent energy data on Brazil  
onto my computer. Will pass along to the research team and Peter for  
reference. He has also offered to put us in touch with whoever we need  
from Petrobras. This source is going to be mostly used to expand into  
other relationships in the energy sector.

One interesting thing to note -- out of all the issues I've discussed  
in various meetings in Brazil -- foreign policy, police corruption,  
organized crime, drug trafficking, terrorism, security, defense, etc.,  
the one issue that has been by far the most sensitive is energy.  It's  
not just my imagination, either. Paulo has noticed the same thing.  
Everyone feels extremely reluctant to discuss anything related to  
energy strategy. This source in particular was really uncomfortable  
talking about Petrobras strategy himself and preferred for us to just  
speak with them directly. Those working on the strategic side of  
Petrobras won't discuss anything on the phone. Even in later meetings  
in Sao Paulo, a source's body language totally switched from extremely  
engaged to guarded the second we went into a discussion on Petrobras's  
moves. It's really strange. When I inquired about it, the answer I got  
was that it was a highly strategic issue for Brazil so people aren't  
as open to talking about it.

This source talked a lot about how Brazil's big focus is on self- 
sufficiency and provided all the data and maps to back that up.  Every  
source acknowledges that since the nationalizations and military  
occupation of the energy facilities in Bolivia, Brazil is extremely  
cautious with La Paz and is working toward dramatically reducing any  
dependency it has on Bolivia for nat gas.

When we were talking about Argentina, he brought up an interesting  
example of an agreement Brazil and Argentina came up with a few years  
ago in which Brazil would provide Argentina with hydropower while  
Argentina would provide natural gas to Brazil in return. The purpose  
of the deal was to show the 'strategic partnership' that the two  
countries have (we've seen a lot of examples of this, the latest one  
being Argentina's offer to help build infrastructure in Brazil for the  
World Cup.)  Now, Argentina isn't shipping nat gas to Brazil anymore  
because it's having trouble supplying its own market. Brazil is still  
exporting hydropower though. SHows the growing imbalance between the  
two.

The govt intends to throw whatever money it needs to for the pre-sal  
investment. So much is hinged on this thing, and they are throwing  
everythign they've got at the whole endeavor. The source claims that  
there's no preference Brazil is giving to certain companies over  
others -- they plan to build a big international consortium with  
Petrobras of course having the largest stake and veto power in all pre- 
sal exploration deals.

The source knows Dilma well and worked a lot of years with her. He  
knows her style and said that he doesn't expect much change at all int  
he way of energy reform. As he put it, all the energy reforms  
implemented over the past 8 years all came from Dilma's head. Lula  
didn't get into that. As he sees it, most of that work has been done.
","2011-01-19 03:51:47",1,"2012-03-26 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/213877_insight-brazil-energy-policy-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
213929,"INSIGHT - BRAZIL - Defense issues
"," From a meeting with the editor-in-chief of Defesa-Net (the Brazilian  
version of Jane's Intelligence.)  We have signed a confederation  
partnership with Defesa Net, so any Latam/Brazil defense-related  
issues can be forwarded to myself and Paulo as we keep in contact with  
this source.  On a separate note, I have another diplomatic source who  
has offered to put us in contact with both the Brazilian defense  
minister (Jobim) and the new foreign minister.


** One thing to keep in mind -- Defesa-Net's mindset is very much like  
STRATFOR's.  They're located in southern Brazil, near Porto Alegre  
(which honestly feels a lot like Austin in a lot of respects.)  They  
realize the benefit of keeping some safe distance from Brasilia and  
they're focused on sifting through the headlines, the noise, etc. to  
tell what's really going on. There are rumors also that Defesa Net is  
used as an outlet for leaks by Brazilian military officials.

While in my meetings with Brazilian generals and security officials in  
Rio and Brasilia made it sound like Brazil more or less had a plan,  
this source kept stressing that the Brazilian defense establishment is  
sorely lacking in one main area:  strategy.  He openly admits that the  
nuclear subs really make very little sense.  He recalls how in 2006 he  
was tracking the submarine tenders when Brazil was considering buying  
subs from the Germans.. then, all of a sudden, in 2008 (on what  
appears to Lula's and Jobim's initiatives)  Brazil comes up with this  
nuclear sub idea. As he put it, it made for good headlines, but made  
very little strategic sense.  Nuclear subs are NOT quiet, not  
efficient, require lots of maintenance that Brazil in inexperienced  
with, etc. It's a decision that hasn't been thought through.  If you  
refer back to the notes from my meeting with the generals in Rio,  
though, they basically say that it's more about HAVING the subs as a  
deterrent more than anything.  The source agrees that there is  
consensus in pursuing the nuclear subs regardless.

Similarly, he says Embraer has created a new defense unit (last  
year.)  Then he said, 'for what? who knows. we're still figuring it  
out.\"  It's been made very clear that Dilma is giong to be protecting  
her state champions, including Embraer, Petrobras, Vale, etc. He also  
said how there are similar questions when it comes to Brazilian  
helicopter purchases... they need these helos to operate in the  
Amazon, but the ones they're buying from the Europeans, Russians, etc.  
don't necessarily stand up to the humidity in these conditions. It's  
very expensive to operate in the Amazon.

The source went into some detail in describing Dilma's style.  Dilma  
is a technocrat, first and foremost, a protective mother for Brazil,  
not ideological. She studies up on all the issues, asks a lot of  
questions, expects her ministers to be extremely well-prepared and to  
have a Plan B ready.  This isn't something that Brazilian officials  
are apparently used to. I could see that tension in both the  
diplomatic and miltiary circles as they're expecting to hit a lot of  
walls with Dilma. Everybody seems to believe that Dilma is highly  
competent, though.

This is why she is now ordering a sort of overhaul on the fighter jet  
situation. She is reviewing everything from scratch. Boeing has upped  
the offer more recently, trying to give assurances on technology  
transfer. This source doesn't seem to think that the tech transfer is  
as significant as others are making it out to be (but Im not so sure  
about this.)  We expect this source to keep us updated on what happens  
with the fighter jet deal -- my money is still on the French, but this  
decision doesn't seem to be coming any time soon.

Another reason why the French are so interested in these military  
deals with Brazil -- the French have a satellite launching point in  
Guyana and need Brazilian cooperation to protect that site.

The source admits that Brazil wants regional leadership, it just  
doesn't want the negative parts associated with such a role. In other  
words, Brazil doesn't want to make hard decisions.

He spent some time talking about the Islamic communities in the tri- 
border area as well.  He described this area mainly as a 'refuge' for  
Islamist militant groups milling around the area. They know that if  
they target Brazil, the risk losing that refuge (again, another reason  
why Brazil is so careful with its terrorism application and why Lula  
has been trying to be nice to Iran and hamas as well) he said how a  
lot of the Arab families living in the tri-border area are blackmailed  
by militant groups back in the Mideast -- where they are forced to  
provide a place to stay, prtoection, etc or else their family back  
home in the MIdeast gets hurt.  Seems like Brazil monitors a lot of  
these comms.  He also said Brazilian intel authorities are on alert  
and track every Islamic holiday. This is a region that they watch,  
even if they don't like to talk about it.

He said how a lot of the arms coming into the drug trafficking groups  
in Brazil come from Angola (those go to Rio mainly) and Nigeria (those  
go to SP mainly)
","2011-01-19 03:51:58",1,"2012-03-26 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/213929_insight-brazil-defense-issues-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
215368,"Re: PDVSA guys are FLIRTY...
","   whatever, dog ballz

   Marko Papic wrote:

     No seriously... why are Peter and I cc-ed to this dirty dirty dirty girl
     talk? I'm not complaining... just a little confused...

     ----- Original Message -----
     From: \"Karen Hooper\" <hooper@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Lauren Goodrich\" <goodrich@stratfor.com>
     Cc: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>, \"Peter Zeihan\"
     <zeihan@stratfor.com>, \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Monday, December 8, 2008 1:24:55 PM GMT -05:00 Colombia
     Subject: Re: PDVSA guys are FLIRTY...

     send them to DC, they can take me shopping any time.

     i'll just be sure to bring my chastity belt... and mace.

     Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       Have to admit... Russians are sooooo severe and paranoid... meeting
       with dummy, flirty Venezuelans is nice after my looooong day.
       They keep offering to take me \"shopping tonight' to buy me \"whatever I
       want\"... I have declined for the record.
       Though if godfather wasn't picking me up in 20 min, I might play...
       they're fun (and veeeery high up in pdvsa).

       Karen Hooper wrote:

         Taladre, bebe, taladre!!!

         (drill, baby, drill, for the language-challenged.... lauren, i think
         you should practice saying that to your new \"friends\")

         Reva Bhalla wrote:

           those PDVSA guys have multiple drilling talents, if you catch my
           drift...

           and NO im not speaking from experience. it's the meds talking...

           Karen Hooper wrote:

             An STD-free team player, thank you very much.

             Reva Bhalla wrote:

               psh, what kind of team player are you?

               Karen Hooper wrote:

                 Hah!

                 I'm soooooooo not sleeping with PDVSA reps for this job.
                 Sorry guys.

                 Lauren Goodrich wrote:

                   Drinking with them right now.
                   Will return with goodies.
                   Geez, Karen. All you need do is sleep with these guys and
                   you got them. (PS... Not willing to sleep with them for
                   you--sorry)

                   Sent from my iPhone

                 --
                 Karen Hooper
                 Latin America Analyst
                 Stratfor
                 206.755.6541
                 www.stratfor.com

             --
             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             Stratfor
             206.755.6541
             www.stratfor.com

         --
         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         Stratfor
         206.755.6541
         www.stratfor.com

       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       Stratfor
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

     --
     Karen Hooper
     Latin America Analyst
     Stratfor
     206.755.6541
     www.stratfor.com

     --
     Marko Papic

     Stratfor Junior Analyst
     C: + 1-512-905-3091
     marko.papic@stratfor.com
     AIM: mpapicstratfor
","2008-12-08 19:30:17",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/215368_re-pdvsa-guys-are-flirty-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","","zeihan@stratfor.com,goodrich@stratfor.com,hooper@stratfor.com,marko.papic@stratfor.com",""
215654,"Fw: extraordinary achievement
","   Storm clouds lifting.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Ibrahim Kalin <ibrahimkalin@gmail.com>
   Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2010 20:08:42 -0500 (CDT)
   To: George Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: extraordinary achievement
   dear george.
   i understand your dilemma! it is more a reflection of the realities of
   turkish society and politics than an error or failure in your analysis.
   such a complicated society as turkey does not lend itself to neat
   categories.
   but there are, as you know very well, different levels of analysis and
   they can be applied to the religious and political trends in turkey. this
   holds true for the gulen movement as well as the secularists (and ak party
   and others). part of the reason why there is always a very strong reaction
   to an analysis that seems to leave out one piece of the puzzle is that
   there is a deep sense of existential threat in almost all social and
   political movements/groups in turkey. the modern turkish republic was
   founded upon a zero-sum game for various historical reasons and security
   in the widest sense of the term has been the top priority of the
   republican elites for many decades. paradoxically and rather sadly, it has
   created similar emotions and reactions among the non-state elites, leading
   to a mirror image. ak party, probably the most successful political
   movement in recent turkish history in terms of its ability to project a
   new social imagination across the turkish society (i just came back from a
   major rally in diyarbakir where pm erdogan embraced the entire country
   with its turks, kurds, arabs, etc, without stepping on anyone's toe- a
   nearly impossible job!).
   regarding the gulen movement, there are many points that need to be
   considered. but i know this is not what you ask in your message.
   the best thing to do is to reach fethullah gulen himself. but that might
   too cumbersome. my suggestion is to contact ekrem dumanli, editor-in-chief
   of zaman newspaper. i will be happy to introduce you to him.
   regards,
   ibrahim

   2010/9/1 George Friedman <gfriedman@stratfor.com>

     Dear Ibrahim:

     Stratfor appears to have achieved the impossible.* We are disliked by
     the secularists for spreading the idea of neo-Ottomanism and now by the
     Gulen movement as agents of foreign powers (I guess that means the U.S.
     and Israel).* It is hard to offend both groups but we have done it.* My
     view of our analysis of the Gulen movement is that it described it as
     what it was--a powerful strand of the Turkish polity.* We have been
     accused of saying that they were violent (we didn't) and of being
     foreign agents (we aren't).*

     The responses are in a way understandable, but at the same time it is a
     bit troubling.* I doubt that there is any group as favorably inclined to
     Turkey as Stratfor is at this moment and we take a lot of grief from the
     Armenians and Jews for this. I am particularly pressured but I take
     perverse pride in resisting.*

     So I write asking some advice.* I have nothing against the Gulen
     movement.* I find it interesting and important and worth the time and
     effort we spent studying them.* We understood what they wanted but what
     we gave them was, in an American context, not at all negative.* They are
     a powerful group to be taken seriously.* I am inclined to call someone
     if not to smooth things over but to make it clear that I have no
     animosity toward them--simply to set that part of the record straight,
     and to listen to particularly criticisms.* Detailed objections have been
     scarce.*

     Do you have any suggestion on whether and how to proceed.* I know this
     might be delicate for you so if you want to decline involvement I
     entirely understand.

     George

     --

     George Friedman

     Founder and CEO

     Stratfor

     700 Lavaca Street

     Suite 900

     Austin, Texas 78701

     Phone* 512-744-4319

     Fax* 512-744-4334
","2010-09-04 02:51:00",1,"2012-03-07 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/215654_fw-extraordinary-achievement-.html","friedman@att.blackberry.net","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com",""
215681,"=?utf-8?Q?Re:_Stratfor_A_nalizi_hakk=C4=B1nda_habe_rler?=
","   Fascinating..

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Sep 7, 2010, at 9:32 AM, \"George Friedman\"
   <friedman@att.blackberry.net> wrote:

     Fyi.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: ibrahimkalin@gmail.com
     Date: Tue, 7 Sep 2010 03:46:07 -0500 (CDT)
     To: George Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>; Kamran
     Bokhari<bokhari@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: ibrahimkalin@gmail.com
     Subject: Fw: Stratfor A nalizi hakkA:+-nda habe rler
     Dear george and kamran.
     I asked some media outlets to write about the stratfor report on turkey
     and the balkans and below are the links to the news reports they
     produces.
     Ibrahim

     Bu e-posta, Turkcell BlackBerry ile gAP:nderilmiAA*tir.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: volkan durmaz <volkan.durmaz@hotmail.com>
     Date: Tue, 7 Sep 2010 11:36:07 +0300
     To: Esra Kirecci KDK<esrakirecci@gmail.com>
     Cc: A:DEGbrahim KalA:+-n<ibrahimkalin@gmail.com>; cemalettin haAA*imi
     kdk<chasimi@gmail.com>
     Subject: Stratfor A nalizi hak kA:+-nda habe rler

     Esra HanA:+-m;
      
      
     STRATFOR Analizi hakkA:+-nda internet basA:+-nA:+-nda AS:A:+-kan
     haberlerin baAA*lA:+-calarA:+- (bugA 1/4n itibariyle) aAA*aA:*A:+-daki
     gibidir;
      
     http://www.cnnturk.com/2010/dunya/09/06/stratfordan.turkiye.balkanlar.analizi/588951.0/index.html
      
     http://www.starkibris.net/index.asp?haberID=69680
      
     http://www.turkishny.com/headline-news/2-headline-news/38163-stratfordan-turkiye-balkanlar-analizi
      
     http://www.haberx.com/Default.aspx?p=17&n=10441819&fn=1
      
     http://www.guncelhaber.com/dunya/stratfordan-turkiye-balkanlar-analizi-527402.html
      
     http://www.aktifhaber.com/news_detail.php?id=324889
      
       
      
     Volkan 
     KDK 
","2010-09-07 15:44:05",1,"2012-03-07 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/215681_-utf-8-q-re-_stratfor_a_nalizi_hakk-c4-b1nda_habe_rler-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","","friedman@att.blackberry.net",""
218047,"[alpha] INSIGHT - PNG - Two PMs - CN65
","   **intel on the OS report below.

   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   If Somare tries to pass anything through the House, he will fail, and
   under the Westminster tradition that triggers cause for the G-G to appoint
   another PM even if there's been no vote of no confidence.

   Uncle Ben is advising O'Neill. Peter is sitting in Parliament challenging
   Somare to bring on a vote on anything, such as a new Speaker. Of course a
   defeat provides a trigger. 

   We believe Peter will eventually prevail because the Chamber supports him.
   This is what Westminster democracy is about. 
   The business community wants Peter, as does Australia. Somare returns PNG
   to a cess pit of corruption, incompetence and mediocrity. Need I regale
   you with the details of my meeting last year with Somare's housing
   minister who was stoned on betel nut?
   It is wrong though that business put O'Neill in place: it was Uncle Ben
   and his Highlands circle, along with others like Babani. These are the
   sensible people. 

           Papua New Guinea in crisis with two PMs, two police chiefs

     PAPUA New Guinea plunged into a constitutional crisis yesterday as Peter
     O'Neill, rejecting a Supreme Court ruling that removed him as prime
     minister, occupied the government benches in parliament and broke though
     a police barricade at the Governor-General's residence.

     Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd said PNG had entered uncharted
     waters since Monday's Supreme Court split ruling that reinstated Michael
     Somare and prompted armed police to stand guard at the vice-regal
     residence in Port Moresby .

     About 60 MPs loyal to Mr O'Neill stormed past the police at the gates of
     Government House yesterday and insisted on a meeting with
     Governor-General Michael Oglio.

     \"We are unarmed and we're the legitimate government,\" they chanted
     according to the ABC.

     Standing at the gates of Government House, Mr O'Neill declared: \"As
     parliament speaks today, I am the prime minister of the country, and
     Somare is trying to hijack it with some hooligan policemen.\"

     Some of the police guarding Government House are loyal to Sir Michael.
     One of his first acts when the court ordered he return to government was
     to reinstate former police commissioner Fred Yakasa and oust Mr
     O'Neill's appointee Tom Kulunga.

     Mr O'Neill said Mr Oglio had met with him briefly yesterday and said he
     had agreed to meet Sir Michael, the founding father of PNG and known as
     the grand chief, today.

     \"I cannot discuss the details of that meeting because he has to afford
     the same level of courtesy to the grand chief,\" Mr O'Neill said.

     \"He will meet with the grand chief tomorrow. He will then write to both
     of us and express his decision on the best way to move forward.\"

     Shots were fired outside Government House on Monday night, and yesterday
     Mr O'Neill's treasurer Don Polye urged the MPs to be peaceful amid a
     heavily armed police presence.

     \"We must sit. There is no need for shooting. I urge you all to sit down
     and be peaceful,\" Mr Polye said.

     Sir Michael is understood to be at the popular Ela Beach Hotel in Port
     Moresby, where he has set up cabinet made up mostly of ministers from
     his previous government. Sir Michael's daughter Betha told the news
     agency Agence-France Presse that her father had made it to Government
     House and been sworn in, although this could not be confirmed elsewhere.

     \"The PM has already gone into Government House and he's already signed
     off on the instruments recognising Sir Michael as prime minister,\" she
     said.

     But she added that his ministers had been prevented from joining him
     after Mr O'Neill and dozens of his MPs blockaded the building. \"What's
     happening at the gates of Government House is that the government, or
     the rogues that were ousted, have blocked off the Government House
     gates,\" she said. \"So the people that are supposed to be sworn in cannot
     be sworn in.\"

     Mr Ogio was seeking legal advice yesterday, including from private
     lawyers, before deciding which claimant to swear in.

     Sir Michael Ogio - appointed Governor-General this year when Sir Michael
     was unquestionably the prime minister - swore in Mr O'Neill at the
     August 2 parliamentary sitting that elected him after Speaker Jeffery
     Nape ruled that the top office was vacant.

     At that stage, Sir Michael - who has run the country for almost half of
     its 36 years of independence - had been away in Singapore for four
     months undergoing medical treatment.

     The Supreme Court led by Chief Justice Salamo Injia ruled by 3-2 on
     Monday that the prime ministership was not vacant, since Sir Michael had
     neither resigned nor been ruled medically unfit to govern.

     Sir Michael, 75, yesterday denied his health would prevent him from
     returning to office. \"My doctor in Singapore believes that my health is
     as good as any. I'm well enough to be a 40 year old again,\" he told the
     ABC.

     Sir Michael's claim to the prime ministership rests with the 3-2 ruling.
     Mr O'Neill's claim rests with his re-election yesterday by parliament,
     69-0, following the judgment.

     Mr Nape said during the emergency parliament sitting that he would only
     recognise the government of Mr O'Neill, whose MPs refused to vacate the
     government's side of the chamber. Adding to the chaos yesterday, the
     rivals pushed ahead with appointments, leaving the country with two
     cabinets and two police chiefs.

     The police, divided between Mr O'Neill's commissioner, Mr Kulunga, and
     Sir Michael's new appointment, Mr Yakasa, were playing a key role in
     choosing which group could gain access to key institutions of state and,
     most importantly, to the Governor-General. The armed police outside the
     Governor-General's residence were loyal to Sir Michael, the ABC
     reported.

     Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd told ABC radio from New York he was \"deeply
     concerned\" about the situation in the former Australian mandate.

     \"Obviously there are heightened political intentions within Port Moresby
     with two, as it were, alternative prime ministers. This is unknown
     terrain in Papua New Guinea,\" Mr Rudd said.

     \"But we of course have been urging calm on the part of all parties. The
     PNG Defence Force has been directed to remain within barracks.

     \"We have a very, very protracted political dispute between a number of
     politicians in Port Moresby.

     \"We therefore have a responsibility to support a peaceful resolution to
     this dispute - violence would help nobody - and that's what we intend to
     do while at the same time fully respecting Papua New Guinea's
     sovereignty.

     \"We therefore will be watching these developments very closely and using
     quiet diplomacy with all parties. Our immediate concern is simply to
     await the deliberations of the Governor-General.\"

     Australians in Papua New Guinea have been warned to stay away from
     crowded areas, particularly near the court and government buildings.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +216 22 73 23 19
 www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-12-14 15:14:35",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/218047_-alpha-insight-png-two-pms-cn65-.html","ben.preisler@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
219735,"INSIGHT - BRAZIL - the future of Mercosur, pre-sal, etc
","   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Reva Bhalla <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
     Date: January 18, 2011 6:40:36 PM CST
     From a meeting in Sao Paulo with Sergio Fausto, one of the main
     architects of Plano Real -- the plan that rescued Brazil from economic
     calamity. Fausto heads up the Cardoso Institute in SP, highly connected
     in official policy circles. We have established a good working
     relationship with him and his institute.
     On the future of Mercosur --
     He agrees that Brazil has more or less grown out of Mercosur.  He
     explained how Brazil imposed the 4 + 1 voting rule when the group was
     created because Brazil mainly wanted to prevent Argentina from signing
     bilateral deals with the US.  Now, the situation has flipped. Brazil is
     in a stronger position and wants to sign bilateral deals of its own. At
     the same time, Brazil is afraid of Arg signing a bilateral deal with the
     Chinese and undercutting Brazilian sales in the Argentine market.
     He doesn't think Mercosur will revert from a customs union to an FTA,
     but he think it's more possible that a resolution could be introduced to
     abolish the 4+1 rule and lower the external tariff to allow members more
     flexibility in signing bilateral deals. Still, he made clear that none
     of this would be moving any time soon. Again, Brazil is worried about an
     Argentina- China deal. Business and labor unions in SP are uniting on
     this issue, trying to push for change, but he thinks this will still
     drag out for some time. 
     He described Brazil's integration dilemma (similar to what I heard from
     others.)  Brazil's borders have remained more or less unchanged, while
     Spanish America has been divided up over and over again. The Brazilian
     fear is that Spanish America will again view Brazil as a threat and that
     that fear will produce another Simon Bolivar-type attempt to unify
     Spanish America against Brazil ( the Colombians that I talked to, btw,
     find this idea hilarious. they know they're not uniting iwth anyone any
     time soon and they can see plainly that Brazil is trying to be the
     regional hegemon.)  Overall, the source is very skeptical of
     integration, but definitely sees the logic in Brazil wanting Chile and
     Argentina to balance against Brazil so that Brazil isn't seen as another
     US. 
     On Pre-Sal investment -- again, we noticed that he got more distant and
     cautious when talking about energy issues.  He said that the recent
     changes in regulation that give the state more authority over Pre-Sal
     (Fed govet has veto power in each exploration deal.) would likely lead
     to more preference toward state-owned firms in choosing members of hte
     pre-sal consortium.  As he said \"a Chinese state firm will feel more
     comfortable working on this project.\" -- when i asked him to clarify, he
     seemed to be saying brazil prefers to deal with pre-sal on a state to
     state basis.
     ** This source is helping get us the data on Brazilian investment in the
     region and Brazilian population migration in the region for graphics we
     want to produce
","2011-01-19 14:24:04",1,"2012-03-26 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/219735_insight-brazil-the-future-of-mercosur-pre-sal-etc-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
220936,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA/EU/CA/Caucasus - Energy politics
","   PUBLICATION: background/analysis
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Ambassador-at-large for energy security, Czech
   Republic and chief of CR's nuclear tender for Temelin
   SOURCE  Reliability :  B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2 
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
   The level of distrust between Ukraine and Russia is unbelievable. You know
   it's bad when they are using guys like me to communicate with each other.
   There is a very, very small number of people who actually know what's
   going on in the nat gas negotiations -- Putin, Medvedev, head of Naftogaz,
   Miller of Gazprom, Yanukovich and maybe the FM. By trust, I mean,  for
   example, you, Reva  and I have a deal. I sell X amount to you, we settle
   on an amount to trim from the top and keep for ourselves, clean the books,
   etc. Now, all of a sudden, I am replaced. You don't the person you're
   dealing with anymore and if he will uphold his end of the deal. Thoughout
   the 1990s things worked fine. Over the past few years, though, ppl kept
   getting replaced and nobody could trust each other. This is how we got to
   the last cutoff.
   Putin's strategy during the last cutoff was the following:
   Russia know Ukraine is stealing X amount of gas. Russia will send Z amount
   of gas promised to Europe plus the X amount of gas Ukraine was stealing.
   The objective was to portray Ukraine as the villain, while Russia could be
   seen as the dependable partner. Bulgaria, Slovakia and Serbia were the
   only ones who be feeling the shortages.
   When I met with Putin and Sechin during this cutoff, I was very blunt with
   them. I told them the strategy doesn't work. We in Czech Republic,
   Slovakia, etc. will survive without Russian gas. We will process other
   fuel, it may be dirty, but who cares. We are also getting offers at a
   third of the price from Qatar and others. So, Russia doesn't have that
   leverage that it had in 2006. These moves only encourage the Europeans to
   find other suppliers.  This is a problem for Putin... there are people who
   saw the flaws of the strategy but were not able to speak up. It backfired.
     You know me, I am an atheist. I don't believe when the Bible says to
   turn the other cheek... I say if someone hits you, hit them twice back.
    This is about getting even with the Russians. We want Russia to take us
   seriously.
   Russia is very much in control of Ukrainian decision-making. Only a very
   small number of people are in the know there. The Russians don't need
   direct ownership of the energy sector to have the influence they're
   looking for right now. They were very well prepared for making their
   comeback in Ukraine. It is a well-oiled machine there.
   Kyrgyzstan was a message for the Chinese primarily.  China's presence in
   the 'Stans is the big issue right now, and the Russians need to keep China
   within limits. China brings in money and infrastructure, but when you talk
   to the regimes of these countries, they don't feel comfortable dealing
   with the Chinese like they do with the Russians. THey know the Russians -
   Russia is the default language, they know they work, etc. The Chinese come
   in on a completely different scale. These regimes are very paranoid.. if
   you look at the succession lines of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, they are all
   daughters. These govts are looking for security, and that is where Russia
   holds the upper hand over China.
   Russia is bankrupt save for the extractive industries. They having the
   oil, gas, mining, etc., but that is not a developed economy. They are not
   in good shape and there is serious thought behind the modernization plan.
   The big threat for Russia right now is not coming from the West... it
   comes from the East (China) and from the South (Islam.)   The Russians are
   showing some cooperation with US on Iran, but they haven't done anything,
   and they dont need to. It's a low-risk strategy. They aren't losing
   anything there.
   I don't have faith in Turkey's energy deal with Azerbaijan for Shah Deniz.
   It is remarkable to what degree Azerbaijan is under Russian influence.
   THey are thinking about their survival. The Azerbaijanis cannot agree to a
   final deal on Shah Deniz II.  When I was in Baku recently, they showed me
   a 3-D topographic map of Armenia, AZ, Nagorno. You can see very clearly
   that once (and if) the Armenians cross over with Russian backing, it is a
   flat path to Baku.  The Russians told them during the Georgia war that
   Georgia could just be the first stop... pretty direct threat. The
   Azerbaijanis are terrified of this. The difference between now and when
   BTC came online is that the US was actually there back then with a
   strategy. US is nonexistent in this game right now. Even the Europeans are
   disconnected. AZ, Georgia, Ukraine don't have others to turn to. All
   Russia has to do is pay off enough people or make a move in a certain
   enclave of Georgia to shut down BTC. AZ cannot only turn West... again,
   it's a matter of survival.
   Belarus will cave into Russian demands. Lukashenko knows he has no choice.
   That's 50 percent of his revenue gone otherwise, and he knows that. He is
   a nuisance for the Russians, but he isn't getting help form elsewhere.
   Even the Europeans have reproached him. 
   The Russians are very paranoid about Europe's energy plans. Sechin keeps
   asking me what is the secret plan, what are the Europeans plotting, etc. I
   tell them there is no secret plan. I wish there were one, but there really
   is not.
   The decision on building South Stream won't come until 2013-2014, after
   Nord Stream is completed. So far, Nord Stream is on track for completion,
   but it goes against Russia's energy strategy of avoiding transit states.
   The Russians are not happy with my appointment for the nuclear tender.
   They think I am anti-Russian.  The bid is between Rosatom, Areva and
   Westinghouse (Source met with Westinghouse day before our mtg). No two
   companies can enter jointly.. that would be breaking the rules of the
   tender at this stage. If Rosatom and Westinghouse try to do that for sake
   of US-Russia cooperation, then Areva would win by default. 
","2010-08-09 03:36:14",1,"2012-03-04 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/220936_insight-russia-eu-ca-caucasus-energy-politics-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
221408,"Turkey update
","   Response from Ali Aslan from Zaman included below. He wants to meet with
   George and have us publish a \"clarification\" op-ed on our web site before
   they publish it in their newspapers..
   George, how would you like to proceed? This guy is based in DC.

   Sent from my iPhone
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: \"Ali Aslan\" <aslan@alihalit.com>
     Date: September 2, 2010 7:33:30 AM EDT
     To: \"'Reva Bhalla'\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
     Subject: RE: Request

     Dear Reva,
     I'm writing this letter after my consultations with top editors of Zaman
     and
     Today's Zaman on how to pursue with Dr. Friedman's request. I
     understand your representative in Turkey has also approached Zaman.
     We appreciate Dr. Friedman's interest in writing an Op-Ed for us. In
     principle, there should be no problem with that. But we think Zaman
     should
     not be the first avenue for such a clarification. The priority should be
     given to Stratfor subscribers and other audience in the West who have
     been
     immensely misled with your report. They deserve a clarification and
     hopefully a correction more than our audience in Turkey. We might always
     republish Mr. Friedman's piece after it appears in your website and
     circulated to your subscribers, provided that it meets our editorial
     policy
     standards.
     My editors are taking this issue very seriously; hence they have
     encouraged
     me to meet with Dr. Friedman personally to convey some of our concerns
     with
     the report. We believe such a dialogue could help Mr. Friedman better
     understand our position and kindly address them in his clarification,
     setting the tone for future Stratfor reports which would strike the
     right
     balance.  Please let me know if you can facilitate such a meeting or
     advise
     me how to proceed with this request.
     Your report depicts Turkey divided into secularist and Islamist camps
     and
     you clearly put our newspaper in the latter category -which we strongly
     reject- since you have labeled Zaman 'Gulenist' and in your eyes Gulen
     movement is 'Islamist'. It's a gross injustice. Our newspaper and
     readership
     body may even suffer from legal implications both in Turkey and
     elsewhere,
     given the fact that 'Islamist' is a popular label often used for radical
     movements and terrorists such as Osama bin Laden as well. That makes
     Zaman a
     direct party rather than a mere intellectual interlocutor in this
     debate.
     Therefore, we keep all our rights reserved.
     I look forward to hearing from you on our meeting request with Dr.
     Friedman.
     Thank you for your help and cooperation in advance.
     Best regards,
     Ali Aslan
     Washington Correspondent
     Zaman
     -----Original Message-----
     From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Wednesday, September 01, 2010 10:58 AM
     To: Ali Aslan
     Subject: Request
     Dear Ali,
     I hope you are doing well. I am writing to you with a request. Dr.  
     George Friedman would like to write an op-ed for Zaman to explain our  
     position. Is this something you would publish?
     My very best,
     Reva
","2010-09-02 14:24:58",1,"2012-03-03 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/221408_turkey-update-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,bokhari@stratfor.com,emre.dogru@stratfor.com",""
224103,"RE: Private Meeting/Luncheon with Governor of the Saudi general Investment Authority
","   yes, I ain't going.  I hate towel heads

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, March 09, 2009 9:02 AM
   To: Fred Burton
   Subject: Re: Private Meeting/Luncheon with Governor of the Saudi general
   Investment Authority
   thanks, Fred! can i go to this in your place?
   On Mar 9, 2009, at 9:00 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

      

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Motamedi, Yasmin [mailto:YMotamedi@USChamber.com] 
     Sent: Monday, March 09, 2009 8:59 AM
     To: Motamedi, Yasmin
     Subject: Private Meeting/Luncheon with Governor of the Saudi general
     Investment Authority

To view this email as a web page, go here.                                       

     I hope this email finds you well.  By way of introduction, I am the
     Executive Director for the U.S. Chamber Commerce, Middle East and Africa
     Affairs program. 
     I wanted to take a moment to introduce myself, but also wanted to bring
     to your attention that on the 23rd of March, 2009, the U.S. Chamber of
     Commerce is hosting Governor Amr Al-Dabbagh, Chairman, Saudi
     Arabia General Investment Authority (SAGIA).  David Chavern, the
     Chamber's Chief Operating Office will be hosting this event, along with
     General Daniel Christman, Senior Counselor to President, U.S. Chamber of
     commerce.  Corporate sponsors will have a chance to meet privately with
     the Governor, prior to the luncheon where the Governor will give a
     speech. 
     I am attaching the invitation to the event, as well as the sponsorship
     brochure, for your review and consideration. 
     If you would like to discuss this further, or if you need additional
     details, please do not hesitate to contact me. 
     Thank you for your consideration.
     Have a nice day. 
     Regards,
     Yasmin Motamedi
     Yasmin Motamedi 
     Executive Director 
     Middle East and Africa Affairs 
     United States Chamber of Commerce 
     1615 H Street, N.W. 
     Washington, D.C. 20062-2000 
     Tel: +1 202.463.5671
     Fax: +1 202.463.3114
     Email: ymotamedi@uschamber.com
     http://www.uschamber.com/international/mideast
     : 
     This e-mail and any attachments contain information from the US Chamber
     of Commerce and intended solely for the use of the named recipient(s).
     This e-mail may contain privileged and/or confidential communications.
     Any dissemination by anyone other than an intended recipient is
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     any further viewing of the e-mail or any attachments or from making any
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     error, notify the sender immediately and delete the e-mail, any
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     any printouts.  E-mail transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or
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     therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the
     contents of this message, which arise as a result of e-mail
     transmission. If verification is required please request a hard-copy
     version.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

mideast-afr_banner081223                                                         
                     uscc_logo_100x100                  SAGIA                    
                                                                                 
                         The U.S. Chamber of Commerce                            
                                                                                 
                        Is pleased to Invite you to a                            
                                                                                 
                                    Luncheon                                     
                                                                                 
                                     with                                        
                                                                                 
                   His Excellency Amr bin Abdullah Al-Dabbagh                    
                                                                                 
                      Governor and Chairman of the Board,                        
                                                                                 
               Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA)                
                                                                                 
                             Monday, March 23, 2009                              
                             1:00 p.m. - 2:15 p.m.                               
                                                                                 
                            U.S. Chamber of Commerce                             
                          International Hall of Flags                            
                      1615 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC                        
                                                                                 
                     CLICK HERE FOR R E G I S T R A T I O N                      

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     <SAGIA Sponsorship Form.pdf><SAGIA Invitation.pdf>
","2009-03-09 15:03:51",1,"2012-03-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/224103_re-private-meeting-luncheon-with-governor-of-the-saudi.html","burton@stratfor.com","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com",""
233212,"INSIGHT - US/UK/French view on Libya operation
","   from a closed door mtg with a few US, one UK and one French air force
   colonels
   USAF could not be more thrilled with the resolution. They are practically
   jumping out of their seats to do this operation --- it's a dream op, as
   they call it - flat terrain, close to the coast, easy targets. no prob. 
   What's funny is they're only looking at the 'op' as preventing Ghadafi
   from retaking Benghazi. These guys aren't the decision-makers, obviously,
   but the US guys are simply not looking at the 'what's next' question. They
   brush it off as, we'll get the rebel forces into a mean fighting force,
   they'll handle the rest.  We took a group of rag tag Afghans who were
   repressed into nothing and turned them into fighters, why can't we do it
   with Libyans. (uhh...)  They were amazed at my skepticism.
   The Egyptians are on the ground, arming and training the rebels. 
   From their perspective this whole operation is a UK-French-driven
   campaign. The US was in many ways pushed into it. The resolution was
   almost completely drafted by the Brits.
   The UK guy says UK is driven by energy interests in this campaign. BP
   post-oil spill is suffering in US< other options are to expand in Siberia
   (problems with Russia), Vietnam and .. libya.  They see a Ghadafi ouster
   as the best way to meet their energy interests.
   The French are more complicated.  They dont' need the energy. The French
   had a multi-billion dollar contract signed with Ghadafi for 40 Rafale
   jets, that was going to be the saving grace for the French defense
   industry. Then the French (so he claims) hear about AQIM threats backed by
   Ghadafi on French targets, and they got pissed. Sarkozy painted himself in
   a corner. More than that, though, (and this is what the british and the
   french guy agreed on,) was that this was France really, really wanting to
   show that it can DO this. To prove its relevance.
   The Germans are opposed, but they all commented on how Germany abstained.
   Germany has the stigma of being too close to Russia these days and they
   think Merkel is trying to balance a bit more with the US and plus wanted
   to look good in a leadership position in the UNSC (acting responsibly,
   etc. instead of flat out voting against.)
   The French guy was pissed b/c, as they claim, the French and the Brits and
   the US air force all ready to go. They can start bombing within hours.
   But, they started bitching about the petty bureaucracy.  The US Navy now
   wants to make sure it gets involved and are saying Tuesday to get into
   position, maybe Wed start the operation
   ** Note - George believes this is the US deliberately buying time and
   tryign to bluff ghadafi into a negotiation. They don't want this war.
   Certainly Gates doesn't.
   This has to be a US=-led operation. No question.  All their excrcises and
   the way NATO is configured only allows for a US-led operation. They have
   yet to sort out all the ohter command and control issues. It sounds like
   it'll be a giant mess.
   There's also some fighting going on over what anti-air defense systems to
   employ since the US has some new fancy stuff and they want to 'give it
   away' or reveal their capabilities in something like this.  This is all
   central European air defenses anyway. They seem extremely confident in the
   intel they have on EADs.  Not so much about who's who in the opposiiton
   (but let the agency, SF guys, allies like Egypt worry about that.)
   So, all in all, a lot of stereotypes confirmed. The Air Force is trying to
   jump the gun, saying piece of cake, we got this, who cares about what
   happens next.  I'm sure the army is thinking you're out of your mind.
   we're not getting ourselves into this.  US appears to be buying time and
   NATO unity on this operation is not assured. NATO may deploy a few jets -
   keeping close to the mandate of 'protecting civilians' - if Ghadafi
   doesn't shoot, NATO won't shoot (french guy seemed to be pretty clear that
   the French wouldn't act if Q held to the ceasefire.)
   So... maybe we'll have a weekend? I probably just jinxed us.
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-03-06 07:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/233212_insight-us-uk-french-view-on-libya-operation-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
257534,"Fwd: Thank you (please do not publish this email on your website)
","   A letter from a reader.  I thought you'd all appreciate it.

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Thank you (please do not publish this email on your website) 
      Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2011 20:38:15 -0500                              
      From: James F Smith                                                
        To: letters@stratfor.com <letters@stratfor.com>                  

   Dear Mr. Friedman and Stratfor Team,

    

   My background is CIA and our company is comprised of former DOD, CIA and
   former law enforcement personnel. We provide services for those same
   groups in the form of training, security and information collection.

    

   As such, I am routinely asked to make guest appearance on various national
   / international television and radio programs to discuss issues of
   national security, intelligence, counter-terrorism and related matters.

    

   My intent is to thank you for your organization's excellent service of
   intelligence reporting and analysis. Outstanding just doesn't cut it -
   professionally competent, salient, germane, concise are all descriptors
   that describe your organization's work product. I routinely refer to your
   site prior to on-camera appearances to do a sanity-check on my talking
   points.

    

   Keep up the great work ladies and gentlemen. You're doing a great service
   to your subscribers.

    

   Respectfully,

    

   Jamie

    

   (as I requested above, please do not reprint or publish this email - thank
   you.)

    

    

   Jamie Smith

   SCG, LLC

   www.scginternational.com

   jamie@scginternational.com

   +1 757 469 9512 m

   +1 757 390 3356 o

   +1 703 995 4550 f

   1369 Laskin Road, Suite 5

   Virginia Beach, Virginia 23451, USA

    

   U.S. Veteran Owned & Operated

   The information in this communication and any attachments herein are
   confidential and may be legally privileged. It is intended solely for the
   use of the individual or entity to whom it is addressed and others
   authorized to receive it. This email may also contain information in
   reference to certain commodities that are not able to be exported without
   a valid license issued by the U.S. Department of State - Directorate of
   Defense Trade Controls, as prescribed in the International Traffic in Arms
   Regulations (ITAR), Title 22, Code of Federal Regulation, Parts 120-130.
   If you are not the intended recipient you are hereby notified that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution or taking action in reliance of the
   contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful.

    
","2011-02-16 04:49:42",1,"2012-03-19 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/257534_fwd-thank-you-please-do-not-publish-this-email-on-your.html","gfriedman@stratfor.com","","allstratfor@stratfor.com",""
262159,"Please Invoice TUSIAD $150,000 ($75K initial fee today)
","","2011-03-24 15:46:13",1,"2012-03-11 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/262159_please-invoice-tusiad-150-000-75k-initial-fee-today-.html","wright@stratfor.com","","oconnor@stratfor.com,george.friedman@stratfor.com,Don.kuykendall@stratfor.com,cs@stratfor.com,kelly.tryce@stratfor.com,susan.copeland@stratfor.com,rob.bassetti@stratfor.com,meredith.friedman@stratfor.com,holly.sparkman@stratfor.com,fernando.jaimes@stratfor.com","attach/9/9718_Proposal - TUS.pdf"
274107,"RE: Confederation - Turkey
","   I sent you an email summary that I had Reva give me so I could follow it
   better. Take a look at that and then let me know when you're available. I
   can do it in the next half hour if you can.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, March 18, 2010 4:47 PM
   To: 'Meredith Friedman'
   Subject: RE: Confederation - Turkey

   That would be good. When did you want to meet on this?

    

   From: Meredith Friedman [mailto:mfriedman@stratfor.com]
   Sent: March-18-10 5:27 PM
   To: 'Kamran Bokhari'
   Subject: RE: Confederation - Turkey

    

   I hadn't planned for Reva to have contact with potential confederation
   issues until pretty much the last minute when we hadn't gotten anywhere
   with your guy so actually asked her to call David when she was in Turkey.
   But I'd like to talk to you and fill you in on what she found out and who
   she met with there re confederation.

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, March 18, 2010 3:21 PM
   To: 'Meredith Friedman'
   Subject: RE: Confederation - Turkey

   Oh, ok. I wasn't aware of your dealings through Reva. I knew she was going
   to have source meetings but didn't know you had tasked her on
   confederation related issues.

    

   As to the issue of needing Sabah and Zaman, I think we need to have
   perspectives from both sides of the political faultline in Turkey. So we
   should go with both Hurriyet and one of the other two. Who would be
   handling Hurriyet?

    

   The other thing is that I have been pressing my contact on this quite a
   bit. And now if we pull back it will look bad. Kinda like what happened
   when I went to Turkey back in '07 and we were looking to hire a country
   director for the SRM project. I got a bunch of resumes and then that plan
   never materialized. It created an awkward situation.

    

   Whether we go with Sabah or Zaman I think we should approach this through
   my contact since he is a senior official and close to the leadership of
   both groups. Besides I have had him working on it well before Reva's trip.
    

    

   I can definitely delegate responsibility to someone else if need be and
   maintain oversight on the flow of information. Right now we are still
   struggling to get these deals operational. Once they are then it is just a
   matter of making sure every week that they are sending info and tasking
   them. Kinda like how I handle sources.

    

   From: Meredith Friedman [mailto:mfriedman@stratfor.com]
   Sent: March-18-10 3:56 PM
   To: 'Kamran Bokhari'
   Subject: RE: Confederation - Turkey

    

   I need to update you on Reva's meetings and our plans as well. I just got
   an email from David as I'd written to him last night. We are planning a
   trip there as well...early June.

    

   Basically I had Reva call David while she was there and they had dinner -
   I needed to know why the silence from him. He explained a lot about their
   problems and actually is now more comfortable in moving ahead with the
   collaboration. They have others as well so we're not the only one they're
   partnering with. So Reva met wtih him as well as with folks from Today's
   Zaman and Cihan the owners. Would we want Saban and Today's Zaman? I was
   pulling out all the plugs since we weren't getting any traction...now
   we're getting traction in all places it seems. I wonder if since Reva met
   with the Zaman guys so they know more about us already we should go with
   them? If you feel a need to follow through on Sabah as well we can do that
   too. As long as you can handle all these contacts/sources. Who works for
   you who could help on some of them? I have Lauren handing off the Kyiv
   Post to Eugene just because she has several other r'ships already. Is
   there someone in MESA we could train to handle a Sabah or Zaman under your
   oversight?

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, March 18, 2010 2:29 PM
   To: 'Meredith Friedman'
   Subject: RE: Confederation - Turkey

   Both Sabah and Zaman groups are pro-govt. My main Turkish contact (the
   adviser to the pm) suggested either of the two. He said he would first
   contact Sabah and if that didn't work he would go for Zaman. For now it
   seems like Sabah is working. I am all for having more than one. Hurriyet
   is actually much better qualitatively given that they have been around
   more longer. We will need to get with David Judson on that. I myself plan
   to be in Turkey for a week in May.

    

   From: Meredith Friedman [mailto:mfriedman@stratfor.com]
   Sent: March-18-10 3:01 PM
   To: 'Kamran Bokhari'
   Subject: RE: Confederation - Turkey

    

   Where does Sabah Group fit politically? Reva also met with folks at both
   Hurriyet and Today's Zaman so I'm looking at several partners in Turkey to
   balance out the information flow and keep any one side from thinking we're
   working against them by only partnering with the other side. Your
   thoughts? Who owns Sabah group do you know? We have Dogan who owns
   Hurriyet and others and Cihan News Agency who owns Today's Zaman and
   others.  

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, March 18, 2010 1:35 PM
   To: 'Meredith Friedman'
   Subject: Confederation - Turkey

   Meredith, my contact emailed me saying that the Sabah Group is interested
   in our proposal and is discussing it internally and will soon get back to
   the contact. Meanwhile, I have not heard back from my guy at Dawn but I
   have pinged him again.

    
","2010-03-18 22:50:19",1,"2012-03-12 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/274107_re-confederation-turkey-.html","","","bokhari@stratfor.com",""
274307,"RE: Confederation Projects for Turkey
","   As I said yesterday you can introduce me by email and I'll handle the
   explanation of what we are interested in doing etc...just think it would
   be appropriate for you to connect us rather than me emailing them cold.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, March 17, 2010 3:05 PM
   To: Meredith Friedman
   Subject: Re: Confederation Projects for Turkey
   cool, this helps
   On Mar 17, 2010, at 3:03 PM, Meredith Friedman wrote:

     This is not about published material, it's about a relationship where we
     can ask questions when there's a critical event in a certain country.
     Here is an outline of a draft initial letter I would send to someone who
     doesn't know STRATFOR very well. I amend it and fit it to each case and
     often leave out parts altogether. AS you can see there is nothing here
     that would bring up the shadow cia reputation. We are clearly producers
     of international affairs news. 
      

     We are looking to develop a relationship with a news organization in
     Ukraine and thought Kyiv Post would be a good potential partner for
     STRATFOR. We are looking for a news organization with which we can
     exchange ideas, information and reports about items of interest to our
     analysts at STRATFOR. In return we would offer you access to our
     analysis, share information and reports and give some exclusive
     interviews to your journalists at Kyiv Post. Ukraine is an important
     country in the region and we would like to be able to access a better
     level of information and understanding by working directly with some of
     Kyiv Post's journalists.

     STRATFOR focuses only on international affairs issues and we do not
     cover areas that many traditional news organizations cover such as
     sports, the arts or advertising. Our focus is on understanding global
     events through the view of geopolitics. We also have a security team
     that analyzes and collects information on issues of security that would
     affect people traveling on business or leisure throughout the world.
     That team focuses on terrorism, drug trafficking, kidnappings and things
     of that nature relating to personal and corporate security.

     What I propose is that we give you a complimentary account to
     STRATFOR.com so you can read for yourself and get better acquainted with
     our products. We would then offer access to a small group of your
     journalists (who you would designate) and would exchange information,
     research and analysis with them. We would provide one point of contact
     here at STRATFOR to work with a main point of contact at your end who
     you would designate.

     The result we are looking for is a deeper understanding of Ukraine and
     the region for STRATFOR's readers. We would hopefully provide your
     readers with a better understanding of areas you are interested in as
     well. This relationship can only increase the excellence of both our
     products and will hopefully lead to further collaboration in the future
     as we get to know and work with each other successfully. I see the first
     stage as the \"getting to know\" each other phase and strengthening our
     products to improve our news gathering and production.

     If you are interested in moving forward on this idea I will send you a
     draft agreement that you can look over and add your own comments or
     revisions. Meanwhile, would you like to have a STRATFOR account set up
     in your name so you can access our analyses and reports? If there is
     someone else who should have access in addition to you please send me
     their email addresses as well.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Wednesday, March 17, 2010 2:54 PM
     To: Meredith Friedman
     Subject: Re: Confederation Projects for Turkey
     sure, i was just asking how you explain the collaboration because the
     zaman guys are an interesting case... we'll have to be careful with this
     shadow CIA reputation
     will also help me reach out to other potential confederation partners if
     I can understand better how you explain the collaboration. otherwise a
     lot of ppl come back with 'we publish everything on our web site'
     On Mar 17, 2010, at 2:50 PM, Meredith Friedman wrote:

       Introduce me as the VP of Communications for STRATFOR and say that I
       would like to discuss with them the idea of a collaboration between
       STRATFOR and X to exchange information, research and ideas that are
       useful to our analysts and to their journalists. I'll get into the
       rest. Does that work?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Wednesday, March 17, 2010 2:42 PM
       To: Meredith Friedman
       Subject: Re: Confederation Projects for Turkey
       yeah, it seems like you and George met with the nationalist/secularist
       types, but the Gulen/AKP faction is extremely important as well.  I'll
       follow up with the Cihan/Zaman guys and the EnergyReport contact. can
       you send me a quick brief on how you typically explain the information
       exchange to these agencies?  that will help me set this up for you.
       On Mar 17, 2010, at 2:38 PM, Meredith Friedman wrote:

         I'm going to follow up with David Judson then...and what about the
         Today's Zaman guys? I just checked and of all the several dozen
         journalists we met there and who interviewed George there were none
         from Zaman. Do you want to email the main person thee who you think
         I should follow up with and cc me and introduce us?  You can do the
         same with the best person at Energy Report as well.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
         Sent: Tuesday, March 16, 2010 10:43 PM
         To: Meredith Friedman
         Subject: Confederation Projects for Turkey
         CONFEDERATION PROJECTS FOR TURKEY
         Cihan News Agency -- owns Zaman, Today's Zaman and other major
         Turkish media agencies
         Cihan provides news to: CNN International, BBC, NBC, MTV, CBS, ABC,
         Al-Jazeera, Abu Dhabi Tv, ARD, ZDF, SAT 1, TF1, Canal +, RAI, Tve,
         Antena 3, TV2 Denmark, Nos Tv, MJTV, NTV Japan, KBS, NTV Russia,
         TV6, IRIB, MEGA Channel, Bloomberg, MSMBC, ANS, Lider Tv and others.
         They have staff in Central Asia, Mideast, Balkans, Europe, South
         America, Africa, Far East. Permanent offices in places like Gaza,
         Kabul, Arbil.
         Political ideology:  Gulenist/loyal to ruling AKP
         My contact:  Abdulhamit Bilici (a.bilici@zaman.com.tr) - General
         Director of Cihan News Agency and columnist for Zaman
         Today's Zaman -- English-language version of Zaman; direct
         competitor to Hurriyet
         Has partnership with British daily The Times
         Political ideology: Gulenist/loyal to ruling AKP
         My contact: Bulent Kenes (b.kenes@todayszaman.com) - Editor in Chief
         of Today's Zaman  (both he and Bilici are extremely influential
         within the Gulen movement.)
         Additional contact:  Ali Aslan aslan@alihalit.com - columnist for
         Today's Zaman, based in Washington, DC
         Note -- I had a preliminary discussion with Mr. Bilici and Mr. Kenes
         about a partnership when I met with them at Zaman HQ in Istanbul. I
         also know their primary contact in DC. They would need a bit more
         explanation and coaxing. Their immediate response was that they
         publish all the information that they get on their Web site. What we
         would have to better explain is that we're looking for a direct
         partnership. If we have a deal with Hurriyet, then we should also
         have a deal with Cihan/Zaman to balance out politically.
         Dogan News Agency -  owns Hurriyet, Turkish Daily News and others
         Direct competitor to Cihan News Agency
         Political ideology:  A lot more neutral, but more in line with the
         nationalist/secularist camp
         Contacts:  Haluk Tukel - CEO of Dogan media group and
         Secretary-General of TUSIAD - main business association dominated by
         nationalist/secularists;  David Judson, editor in chief of Hurriyet
         - david.judson@tdn.com.tr;  Taylan Bilgic - managing editor of
         Hurriyet - taylan.bilgic@tdn.com.tr
          
         Note -- had dinner with David Judson, who explained why he was
         hesitant before to sign a deal with STRATFOR since Dogan media has
         been under attack by the Gulenists and AKP and are facing major tax
         evasion fines. They didnt want to also get branded as working with a
         'shadow CIA'. Now he feels they have enough partnerships under his
         belt to move forward with STRATFOR.  My meeting with Haluk Tukel got
         cancelled last minute, but we're in touch via email and I think I'll
         be able to meet him when he's in DC in a couple weeks.
         EnergyReport  - An energy-focused magazine written in Turkish and
         English. Launched January 2010, monthly circulation. 
         Contacts:  Gulcin Fatma Kabasakalli (fkabasakalli@yahoo.com, +90 530
         363 14 84);   Faruk Demir - mfd2030@gmail.com ( 0.530.592 46 09)
         This is a very polished energy publication run by the topmost energy
         expert in Turkey, Faruk Demir and his assistant, Fatma Kabasakalli,
         who is the editor in chief. Faruk Demir was formerly on the Turkish
         national security council. Now he conducts a lot of energy
         negotiations on behalf of Turkey, but keeps a bit of distance from
         the government to give him some flexibility. He and his assistant
         are extremely well-connected. The magazine also has a lot of good
         analysis and insider information. They are already planning on
         publishing one of George's weeklies in their next publication. I'll
         bring a copy of the magazine when I come to Austin next week. If we
         set up a formal partnership with them, we can have regular access to
         the best resources on Turkey's energy relations with Russia,
         Azerbaijan, Europe, Central Asia, US, etc. This would be extremely
         useful for our source efforts.  I met with Faruk and Fatma for lunch
         while in Istanbul and discussed a partnership with Fatma. I will be
         seeing Faruk in DC in a couple weeks.
","2010-03-18 18:50:55",1,"2012-03-03 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/274307_re-confederation-projects-for-turkey-.html","","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com",""
275566,"RE: Follow up from STRATFOR and visit
","David -

A trust continuum is a fine description - mostly we want to have access to
someone there who can answer questions we may have when following an issue
or if something critical breaks someone we can call to get details
locally. Often these may be things that do not seem important to you but
are to us- and vice versa - although I mostly see us both focusing on
things we mutually see as important. And having you confirm something,
amplify it or put it in context or tell us we're looking at it the wrong
way is all valuable to us.

I have not yet had a chance to hear of your regionscape project but will
be sure to ask Reva about it. We certainly share your interest in not
getting damaged. I will keep you informed of any other collaborations we
move forward with in Turkey. And anything confidential you share with us
will stay with us. I'm glad you had a chance to visit with Reva. I was
speaking with Kamran yesterday and he is also looking at a trip there in
May he told me. So you may see a few of us from Stratfor in the near
future.

So, next steps. Shall I resend the draft collaboration agreement or do you
still have it? If so, feel free to make any suggested revisions you wish
and send back to me. We can get this signed so we can move forward.

I will also keep you informed of George and my plans regarding our June
visit.

Take care David and I really do look forward to seeing you again and
visiting Istanbul soon.

Best,
Meredith

-----Original Message-----
From: David Judson [mailto:david.judson@tdn.com.tr] 
Sent: Thursday, March 18, 2010 2:38 PMA t
To: Meredith Friedman
Subject: RE: Follow up from STRATFOR and visit

Hi Meredith:

I think this sounds fine. My understanding of the essential model we are
trying to put together is that it is really what I might call a trust
continuum. As I explained to Reva, at the moment we have nothing
particularly concrete to offer beyond what we put on our web site. We have
an idea for an Economist style intelligence unit, shelved since late 2008
when the world became a bit darker, but that remains far from concrete.
So, the value we can offer is to confirm something for you, or amplify or
try and draw a bit of context. Farmers chatting about seed varieties over
the fence, so to speak. Kind of what reasonable should be doing anyway,
not something that necessarily requires reciprocity. In short, I like you
and George. And I like Reva. Your note describes the terms well. I briefed
the editors here on the essence of this after speaking to Reva. So we are
at your service.

Again informally, we are trying to come to a better understanding of our
\"near abroad\" in particular. Reva may have spoken to you of our
\"Regionscape\" project which unlike our intelligence unit is very much
alive. Looking over our shoulder, any advice you might give us on this
would be much appreciated.

The concern we share is not getting damaged, having something slip out of
this continuum. This is not something I fear. I am, of course, aware of
who your other potential collaborator is. I am quite sure you can keep
confidences on anything we might share and I know matters will not travel
to these folks. And that is really my only concern, which I say has
effectively been ameliorated. So we're in business.

I should emphasize that the competition between ourselves and the Zaman
group is rather assymetrical. They like to perceive us as a competitor. As
Reva's notes will reflect, they certainly have plenty of nasty things to
say about us, and about me in fact. All which I hope I answered. They do
this publicly from time to time as well. Which we do not. And we wish them
all the best, privately and publicly. We operate in two very different
conceptual planes. I am not sure how best to describe this, but it is
certainly not competition.

The dates you suggest should be fine from here. I have been trying to
organize my own trip to the East Coast but distractions keep popping up.
And while I would like to visit a good friend recently here from Dallas,
that's at last as far as fall. So late May or June will probably be our
best bet. But if we can be of assistance in the interim, please let me
know. By the way, your fellow Emre here is a classmate of one of our
reporters. This might prove useful in some way.

And give my regards to Reva. I enjoyed our dinner very much. And also say
hi to George.

Best


David



________________________________
From: Meredith Friedman [mfriedman@stratfor.com]
Sent: Thursday, March 18, 2010 4:50 PM
To: David Judson
Subject: Follow up from STRATFOR and visit


Hello David -

Reva is back from her trip to Turkey and has filled me in on her various
meetings. She really enjoyed her time in Turkey and said she loves it the
most of any country she's visited yet...and she gets around quite a bit.

We discussed the issues you've been facing regarding a collaboration with
us and I fully understand. It seems out best approach is to have several
collaborations in Turkey so that we get all points of view and do not
alienate one political perspective over the other. Since we aim for
objectivity that is fine with us and I will pursue that goal. I understand
from Reva that you would be fine with us having several partners in Turkey
as well. Please let me know if that is not the case.

We can move forward any way you would suggest. I have yet to approach the
other news organization Reva suggested but will email them today to begin
a discussion with them about a collaboration as well. We do not plan to
publicize these collaborations anyway, so if you are comfortable moving
forward on our partnership with Hurriyet we can do so or we can wait until
and do them both around the same time. Again, at this stage we are not
looking for you to redistribute our content at all but for more of an
exchange of information, research and some analysis between our analysts
and your journalists.

George and I are planning a visit to Istanbul in early June and I wanted
to give you a heads up to see if you will be there at that time? I'm
thinking somewhere between May 31- June 5. Please let me know if you will
be in Istanbul then so we can meet up again.

I look forward to your reply.

Best regards,

Meredith


Meredith Friedman
VP, Communications
STRATFOR
www.stratfor.com<http://www.stratfor.com/>
512 744 4301 - office
512 426 5107 - cell
<mailto:PR@Stratfor.com>
","2010-03-19 22:15:27",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/275566_re-follow-up-from-stratfor-and-visit-.html","","","david.judson@tdn.com.tr",""
275955,"RE: From Ibrahim 
","   OK Great - I'll wait till Tuesday to make flight reservations inside
   of Turkey then. Thanks much Kamran.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, May 07, 2010 1:52 PM
   To: 'Meredith Friedman'
   Subject: RE: From Ibrahim

   He just got back to me saying he will coordinate the dates and get back to
   me on Monday.

    

   From: Meredith Friedman [mailto:mfriedman@stratfor.com]
   Sent: May-07-10 2:36 PM
   To: 'Kamran Bokhari'
   Subject: RE: From Ibrahim

    

   Yes it really would:)

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, May 07, 2010 1:35 PM
   To: 'Meredith Friedman'
   Subject: RE: From Ibrahim

   Understood. Would be really cool if we can get meetings with both the fm
   and the president. But let's see how the dates shape on their end.

    

   From: Meredith Friedman [mailto:mfriedman@stratfor.com]
   Sent: May-07-10 2:29 PM
   To: 'Kamran Bokhari'
   Subject: RE: From Ibrahim

    

   Plan would be to return to Istanbul late on June 3 if possible.  Thanks
   much.

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, May 07, 2010 1:27 PM
   To: 'Meredith Friedman'
   Subject: RE: From Ibrahim

   Cool. Emailing him now. Let's see what he says about the dates.

    

   From: Meredith Friedman [mailto:mfriedman@stratfor.com]
   Sent: May-07-10 2:25 PM
   To: 'Kamran Bokhari'
   Subject: RE: From Ibrahim

    

   Oops... I just saw this after sending the previous email. Can we lock down
   which dates we can do these meetings? We can be in Ankara June 2 or June
   3. if we can schedule them on those two days that would work fine for our
   itinerary.

    

   Let's plan on doing these since he's got agreement on them and if at all
   possible do them on June 2-3.

    

   That would be wonderful.

    

   Meredith

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, May 07, 2010 11:45 AM
   To: 'Meredith Friedman'
   Subject: From Ibrahim
   Importance: High

    

   From: ibrahimkalin@gmail.com
   Sent: May-07-10 12:44 PM
   To: Kamran Bokhari
   Subject: Re: Update on Friedmans

    

   Dear kamran.
   I spoke to foreign minister davutoglu and he agreed to meet the friedmans.
   In fact, we were checking his schedule for an appointment. I was also
   going to check with president gul for a meeting.

   We could also set up meetings with other officials, mps and thin tanks. We
   could have them give a public lecture as well.

   But if they prefer to postpone their visit to november, that's fine too.
   We will try but can't promise the meetings with the president and the fm
   in november.
   Regards,
   Ibrahim

   Bu e-posta, Turkcell BlackBerry ile go:nderilmistir.
","2010-05-07 21:15:31",1,"2012-03-13 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/275955_re-from-ibrahim-.html","","","bokhari@stratfor.com",""
276754,"RE: Notes on the meeting with confederation source - Sabah PoC
","   Emre - this is perfect and exactly why we need you working with our
   confederation partners. I think I understand why your relationship with
   Alparslan at Sabah is more personal and cordial than with Guler at HDN
   because Alparslan is, at root, a journalist who follows the issues and
   knows the details even though he also runs the shop. Remember, Guler is a
   business development manager so she's not the person who knows the details
   of international issues as say Taylan or one of the other journalists
   does. Gulan's role is sort of like mine or Jen's where she is there to
   oversee and manage the relationship and make sure questions get answered
   but I think you need to still develop a stronger personal relationship
   with Taylan and the other guy who I met and whose name I keep forgetting.
    
   I would suggest having a lunch with Gulan and Taylan and going through the
   same type of discussion with them on how we can help them more. Also
   please thank them for the great article they put out from the interview
   with George on our last day there. Did you see it? I think Alparslan is at
   the same point David Judson was at when we arrived there - they want the
   collaboration but realize there's more to it than one managing editor can
   handle himself and you worked through that problem with him at your lunch
   and I expect now he will find that very smart person to do the actual work
   under his supervision. David mentioned they have a very smart woman there
   - Bilcek or some such name - and I think she's been reading STRATFOR on
   her own for a while. But let's see who he chooses.
    
   We may have you visit with our other partners in Georgia and Azerbaijan at
   some future point if needed. Pity you don't speak Russian...our APA editor
   in chief doesn't speak English - just Azeri and Russian. But you'd manage
   fine with a translator. Anyway I am very pleased with the outcome of your
   lunch meeting. It's what is needed to make these partnerships effective
   and valuable for them as we discussed on our call yesterday.
    
   Now let's see if they follow through and get that new POC at Sabah.
    
   Meredith
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Emre Dogru [mailto:emre.dogru@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, June 22, 2010 8:15 AM
   To: Meredith Friedman
   Cc: Jennifer Richmond; scott stewart
   Subject: Notes on the meeting with confederation source - Sabah PoC
   I had a lunch today with our Sabah PoC Alparslan and a to-be diplomacy
   correspondent Mehmet Ali (who currently hangs out with Alparslan as a part
   of his training).

   We talked about recent political developments and than ways to improve the
   cooperation between Sabah and Stratfor. I explained him in detail what we
   do, what kind of information we collect and how we analyze them. We talked
   about the differences between Stratfor's work and journalism, but also the
   valuable information that we can share. I gave examples (such as Gaza
   flotilla crisis, Kyrgyzstan etc.) to show him how we do a great job in
   both collecting and analyzing information especially from the regions
   where Sabah may face difficulties in getting insight. I also advised him
   to ask Stratfor analysts' opinions on a variety of issues. I also talked
   him about our plans to build a new website to publish articles from other
   sources and how this could help Sabah to increase its international
   profile. I told him that we've partners in other countries, such as
   Azerbaijan and Georgia, from which we can get information that Sabah asks
   for. I think he has a much better idea now on what issues/countries Sabah
   can benefit from Stratfor and he seemed very interested in getting these
   information from us.

   I asked him his opinion on how things go on Sabah's side. He says he
   thinks Sabah's mechanism (in cooperation with Stratfor) does not work as
   efficient as it should be. This is because he is usually out of the office
   and cannot communicate with the people who work in the office. For
   instance last time I called him to ask whether Turkey used UAVs he was on
   a trip to Cyprus and it took more time than usual to get me the
   information. He will probably find a smart-cookie who will manage our
   relation with different desks of Sabah because the main problem that they
   face now is the lack of cooperation among their departments. He says all
   departments of Sabah will be notified about our role with Sabah, and they
   will provide all information anytime to this person (who Alparslan will
   choose) who will ask on behalf of us. This will be especially useful when
   we ask something that can be found in Ankara. Of course, Alparslan will
   supervise the mechanism and make sure that it works well.

   One thing I've noticed in meetings with HDN and Sabah people is that two
   things help to get our sources' attention. First, is to show during
   discussions that I'm personally on top of international events. Second is
   to explain in detail what Stratfor does and what we can provide them. I
   can also say that I've a more personal and cordial relationship with
   Alparslan now (more than HDN PoC Guler).

   Let me know if you've questions.

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-06-22 15:43:11",1,"2012-02-29 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/276754_re-notes-on-the-meeting-with-confederation-source-sabah-poc-.html","","","richmond@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,emre.dogru@stratfor.com",""
276784,"FW: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL
","    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Meredith Friedman
   Sent: Saturday, May 29, 2010 4:56 PM
   To: Ozan Batarc,ikar
   Cc: 'Mu:jdat Uluc,am'; ibrahimkalin@gmail.com; 'meredith friedman'
   Subject: RE: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL
   Dear Ozan:
    
   Mr Ibrahim Kalin mentioned that he would arrange a car and driver for any
   of our needs while in Istanbul. I know you are planning to pick us up upon
   our arrival at Istanbul STt airport on Monday afternoon. I need to warn
   you that we have a lot of luggage so I dont' know the type of car you will
   be driving but we have 3 large suitcases and 2 carry on bags (we are
   traveling for about a month non stop!!)  Are you also arranging for the
   other transportation needs we have? If so I am going to tell you what is
   confirmed at the moment.
    
   On Tuesday, June 1 we should not have any needs at this moment as we will
   have several meetings at our hotel.
    
   On Wednesday, June 2 we have 3 meetings confirmed and then need to get to
   the airport for a flight to Ankara at 11:55p.m. so we probably need to go
   straight from the Public Lecture meeting to the airport. I will get the
   address for Is Towers and the location of the Public Lecture and send to
   you as well. Or if you are not handling these transportation needs please
   put me in touch with whoever is handling them.
    
   Thank you for all your generous help.
    
   Best,
   Meredith Friedman
   001 512 426 5107
    
    

   Wednesday, June 2

    

    

   12:00 - 1:30p.m.

    

   Lunch meeting at ISBANK - Is Towers

    

   with Mr Ozince. Mr Koc and Mr Turkakin

    

    

    

   2:30p.m. or 3:00p.m. (exact time will be confirmed in the next day or
   so) Meeting at Sabah

    

   SABAH GAZETESI

   BARBAROS BULVARI, NO: 153

   BALMUMCU, BESIKTAS, ISTANBUL

    

   ALPARSLAN AKKUS (alparslan.akkus@sabah.com.tr) - Foreign News Editor

   +90 212 354 3424

   Mr. Albayrak, Editor

    

    

    

   7:00-9:00p.m. Public Lecture: Topic \"Turkey and the Imbalance of US
   Foreign Policy.\"

    

    

   From Istanbul IST Airport to Ankara depart at 11:55p.m.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Ozan Batarc,ikar [mailto:ozan@selenagroup.com]
   Sent: Friday, May 28, 2010 1:45 AM
   To: mfriedman@stratfor.com
   Cc: 'Mu:jdat Uluc,am'; ibrahimkalin@gmail.com
   Subject: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL

   Dear Mr. & Mrs. Friedman,

    

   Warm greetings and best wishes from Istanbul.

   Please kindly note that; me or one of my friends will be there at the
   airport to meet you with a signboard with your name on it. If you miss our
   representative at the airport please feel free to contact me. My GSM
   number is 0090 532 796 62 26.

    

   Best regards,

   OZAN BATARC,IKAR

   SELENA GROUP

   Istanbul Du:nya Ticaret Merkezi

   A1 Blok Kat 8 No 291, 34149

   Yesilko:y - Istanbul / Turkey

   Tel : + 90 212 465 00 90

   Fax : + 90 212 465 65 40

    
","2010-05-31 00:17:15",1,"2012-03-09 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/276784_fw-your-arrival-to-istanbul-.html","","","meredith.friedman@stratfor.com",""
276899,"Thanking you
","   Dear Ibrahim -
    
   Just to let you know we had a very good meeting with Sabah just now and
   signed the MoU. We introduced our Turkish STRATFOR representative, Emre
   Dogru, to them and he will coordinate the collaboration as he lives here
   in Istanbul.
    
   Hope all is going well with you.
    
   Best,
   Meredith Friedman
   STRATFOR
   001 512 426 5107
","2010-06-02 15:38:36",1,"2012-03-12 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/276899_thanking-you-.html","","","ibrahimkalin@gmail.com",""
277400,"Please invoice and charge credit card Booz Allen Hamilton $20,790 - renewal (paid $19,800 last year)
","","2011-03-29 16:02:55",1,"2012-02-27 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/277400_please-invoice-and-charge-credit-card-booz-allen-hamilton-20.html","wright@stratfor.com","","oconnor@stratfor.com,george.friedman@stratfor.com,Don.kuykendall@stratfor.com,cs@stratfor.com,kelly.tryce@stratfor.com,rob.bassetti@stratfor.com,holly.sparkman@stratfor.com,fernando.jaimes@stratfor.com","attach/17/17225_Stratfor Servi.pdf"
280201,"RE: New Sabah POCs
","   Great thanks Emre. Hopefully we'll have time to meet these editors too
   when we're in Istanbul in November...

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Emre Dogru [mailto:emre.dogru@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, September 21, 2010 6:55 AM
   To: Jennifer Richmond; Meredith Friedman
   Subject: New Sabah POCs
   Our POC from Sabah Alparslan Akkus asked me to pass along the new POC
   list. All three are foreign news editors of Sabah and as Alparslan says,
   they will have more time to read and summarize our material to be used by
   Sabah as well as to provide information that we demand as soon as
   possible. The first one on the list, Sule Guner, will be my main POC. I
   will have a meeting with them at their earliest convenience.

   Please let me know when they are added to our subscription list so that I
   can check it with them. Let me know if you've questions.

   Thanks

   SULE GU:NER
   Sule.guner@sabah.com.tr

   BERCAN TUTAR
   Bercan.tutar@sabah.com.tr

   OKAN UMRUK
   Okan.umruk@sabah.com.tr

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-09-21 17:33:03",1,"2012-03-01 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/280201_re-new-sabah-pocs-.html","","","richmond@stratfor.com,emre.dogru@stratfor.com",""
280329,"RE: Turkish News Agencies
","   We have a Turkish partner already if you look at the sheet I sent out -
   it's Hurriyet Daily News - we have a verbal agreement and are waiting to
   get it signed. Kamran already is working with one of their journalists and
   we met David Judson the editor in Chief when we were in Turkey so it's a
   good relationship. Are you suggesting we should not go with this group? We
   can re-evaluate since they haven't signed the agreement yet...but will
   things change there again? Talk to Kamran about this too please.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, November 25, 2009 9:58 AM
   To: Meredith Friedman; George Friedman
   Subject: Turkish News Agencies
   Hi Meredith,
   I've been working on figuring out the Turkish media landscape because
   there are a ton of major changes underway. In a nutshell, the
   Islamist-rooted AKP party has been buying up a bunch of media agencies to
   clamp down on dissent and clip the military's wings. So, it's making the
   major media group - Dogan group - bankrupt (very Russian of them). Media
   in Turkey has lately become extremely political with Hurriyet putting out
   columns on how the AKP is using these investigations to silence the
   military and then other agencies owned by the Islamist group Gulen (hated
   by the military) putting out pro-AKP, anti-military stories.
   We definitely do not want to get caught in the crossfire of this media
   battle. As I was discussing with George earlier, there's a ton of paranoia
   in Turkey over all this and we can't afford to get branded as either
   pro-AKP or pro-military. It'll hurt our source efforts either way.
   So, I've asked Emre to list out all the major agencies and their political
   biases (see below), and we've narrowed down the list to a few that are
   mostly neutral and are quality news services in terms of breadth, depth
   and access.  We decided on Anatolian News Agency, NTVMSNBC. if we go with
   Hurriyet or Taraf we would get good insight from the military perspective,
   but we would need to keep the relationship covert.
   Emre is returning to Turkey next week and can put us in touch with
   whomever we need. He also has a few contacts within these agencies. I'm
   going to sit down and discuss this more with him today to figure out who
   exactly we need to talk to. Will keep you updated on this.
   Thanks,
   Reva
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Emre Dogru <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
     Date: November 25, 2009 9:43:31 AM CST
     To: Middle East AOR <mesa@stratfor.com>
     Subject: [MESA] Turkish News Agencies
     Reply-To: Middle East AOR <mesa@stratfor.com>
     Newspapers in English
     Zaman / Zaman Daily News: Owned by Gulen, pro-AKP
     Hurriyet Daily News: Owned by Dogan Media Group. anti-AKP and having
     troubles due to tax fine.
     World Bulletin: Islamist-Conservative, pro-AKP

     Newspapers in Turkish
     Dogan Media Group
     Radikal: Social-democrat, mostly neutral
     Hurriyet: Popular, anti-AKP
     Milliyet: Popular, neutral, slightly anti-AKP
     Others
     Taraf: Liberal-Democrat, anti-TSK (Army). Almost all documents we see in
     media about TSK (coup strategies, weaknesses of TSK during PKK
     operations etc.) are published by Taraf.
     NTVMSNBC: Online newspaper owned by Dogus Media Group. Neutral.
     Yeni Cag: Ultra-nationalist
     Yeni Safak: pro-AKP. News director Fehmi Koru is media advisor of PM
     Erdogan.
     Vakit: Islamist, but not pro-AKP because it is closer to banned Welfare
     Party tradition. (Founders of AKP used to be members of Welfare Party.)
     Its successor is  Felicity Party but has no significant vote.
     Firat News Agency: pro-Kurdish/PKK
     Anatolian News Agency: Neutral.
     Sabah: Liberal, owned by Calik Group (The Group that also owns \"Genel
     Enerji\" that operates in N. Iraq)
     Cumhuriyet: Strictly secular, anti-AKP. Its chief editor Mustafa Balbay
     was investigated in Ergenekon Probe.

 --
 C. Emre Dogru
 STRATFOR Intern
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 +1 512 226 3111
","2009-11-25 17:31:15",1,"2012-03-12 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/280329_re-turkish-news-agencies-.html","","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,bokhari@stratfor.com,reva.bhalla@stratfor.com",""
281563,"FW: Her Games
","   There were some earlier encrypted emails from Fred to George and you
   before I got involved that I should see but for some reason G's and my pgp
   is not working - can you forward me a couple from around end of January
   subject line Her Games and The Next Chapter and Re...also one where G laid
   out his strategy to you both but I dont' know what the subject line of
   that was. I want to make sure I'm up to speed on all details and G is busy
   writing the weekly...plus we still haven't gotten our PGP keys synching.
   Much appreciated.
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, January 29, 2010 7:20 AM
   To: 'George Friedman'
   Cc: scott stewart
   Subject: Her Games
","2010-02-22 02:58:53",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/281563_fw-her-games-.html","","","scott.stewart@stratfor.com",""
281798,"STRATFOR MONITOR- ARGENTINA - Falkland Islands oil exploration
","   Reports from Malvina government authorities say that the companies Border
   and Southern Ltd and BHP Billiton are prepared to start exploring the
   Southern waters of the Falkland islands as soon as possible.  They are
   even evaluating the possibility of bringing a new oil platform or drilling
   boat to the area in the event they are unable to use the Ocean Guardian
   (the drilling boat that caused the recent rift among the govts).  Through
   these measures, Border and Southern Ltd and BHP Billiton will be the
   latest companies to join oil exploration activities in the islands (after
   Desire Petroleum and Rockopper Exploration), which are currently in waters
   North of the islands.  Desire and Rockopper are the companies
   that contracted the Ocean Guardian from Diamond Offshore Drilling Intl;
   Billiton could also use the Ocean Guardian. 

   Island authorities have said that drilling in southern waters is a more
   delicate issue environmentally speaking.  However, according to their
   studies, oil companies are saying that their activities will not interfere
   with commercial fishing in the area (the principal form of income for the
   islands).  Some experts are saying that the two drilling areas are an
   underwater continuation of the Andes. They are also located very close to
   the well that YPF wants to explore in Argentine waters.  The expert also
   said that the exploratory phase in southern waters would take about 70
   days, though he said that he could not estimate a start date given the
   variables over equipment availability.

    
","2010-03-05 16:38:28",1,"2012-02-27 22:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/281798_stratfor-monitor-argentina-falkland-islands-oil-exploration-.html","","","zucha@stratfor.com,meredith.friedman@stratfor.com,Howard.Davis@nov.com,Pete.Miller@nov.com,Andrew.bruce@nov.com,David.rigel@nov.com,loren.singletary@nov.com",""
281936,"RE: Sabah
","Great - let me know when you hear something. 

-----Original Message-----
From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Sunday, April 11, 2010 7:18 AM
To: Meredith Friedman
Subject: Re: Sabah

Response from contact: 

hi kamran. the sabah people will respond on monday.ibrahim
---

Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network  
","2010-04-11 20:32:53",1,"2012-03-12 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/281936_re-sabah-.html","","","bokhari@stratfor.com",""
282635,"[alpha] Insight processing reminder
","   Anyone sending insight through to the list needs to remember the new
   coding we have scoring everything on an A-F scale.  I am pasting the
   directions again below.  Pay particular attention to the directions under
   item credibility.

   Also, Mikey made a good point the other day.  Often we will task a source
   asking for feedback on a particular OS piece.  When we do that please also
   include the piece being referenced so that it completes the insight. 
   Sometimes we don't know what the source is referencing, making it
   confusing.

   Finally, where possible its also a good idea to include the original
   (scrub them where needed) questions for the same reason mentioned above on
   the OS pieces.  Where that is not possible and where necessary, please
   give a general idea on the tasking to better understand the sources
   references.  Also, when you include the (scrubbed) questions - and again,
   I know that's not always appropriate - it helps others trying to learn the
   sourcing and insight process to learn how we task sources.

   SOURCE: code
   ATTRIBUTION: this is what we should say if we use this info in a
   publication, e.g. STRATFOR source/source in the medical industry/source on
   the ground, etc
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: this is where we put the more concrete details of the
   source for our internal consumption so we can better understand the
   source's background and ability to make the assessments in the insight.
   PUBLICATION: Yes or no.  If you put yes it doesn't mean that we will
   publish it, but only that we can publish it.
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A-F. A being the best and F being the worst.  This
   grades the source overall - access to information, timeliness,
   availability, etc.  In short, how good is this source?
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: A-F.  A = we can take this info to the bank; B = Good
   insight but maybe not entirely precise; C = Insight is only partially
   true; D = There may be some interest in the insight, but it is mostly
   false or just pure speculation; F = Likely to be disinformation.
   SPECIAL HANDLING: often this is \"none\" but it may be something like, \"if
   you use this we need to be sure not to mention the part about XXX in
   thepublication\" or any other special notes
   SOURCE HANDLER: the person who can take follow-up questions and
   communicate with the source

   Remember that you are not limited to only putting down the letter score
   and are encouraged to give insight into WHY you are picking that score.  I
   know we are often in a hurry, but this is very helpful for everyone
   understanding biases, uniqueness and other factors that make the insight
   pertinent (or not).

   If there are any questions, please ask.

   Jen

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-08-11 23:48:03",1,"2012-02-27 02:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/282635_-alpha-insight-processing-reminder-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
283431,"RE: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL
","   Thank you very much Ibrahim. We will be ready by 10:30a.m. to go to SETA. 
    
   We look forward to meeting Taha Ozhan and also Cemalettin Hasimi tomorrow.
    
   Best,
   Meredith
   mobile 001 512 426 5107

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: ibrahimkalin@gmail.com [mailto:ibrahimkalin@gmail.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, June 02, 2010 8:26 AM
   To: Meredith Friedman; Taha Ozhan; Cemalettin Hasimi
   Subject: Re: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL
   Dear meredith and george. Your program tomorrow will start at 11.00 am at
   the seta foundation where you will have a closed roundtable with a group
   of journalists and think-tank experts. It is being coordinate by taha
   ozhan, seta's director. I am copying this message to him.
   Tomorrow my colleague cemalettin hasimi will accompany you to seta and
   pick you up from the hotel. He is also cc'ed.

   Ibrahim

   Bu e-posta, Turkcell BlackBerry ile go:nderilmistir.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Meredith Friedman\" <mfriedman@stratfor.com>
   Date: Wed, 2 Jun 2010 01:57:43 -0500
   To: <ibrahimkalin@gmail.com>
   Cc: 'meredith friedman'<meredith.friedman@stratfor.com>
   Subject: RE: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL
   Dear Ibrahim-
    
   Thank you so much. We also look forward to seeing you and meetings in
   Ankara. We will be at the Hilton International hotel. There is a driver
   picking us up when we arrive at 1a.m. on June 3. Let us know the time for
   our first meeting when you have that locked in.
    
   Also re tonight I hope it goes well too. Do you know if there is any
   security for this event since it's a public event? Do they normally check
   people coming in to the hall or no?
    
   Best regards,
   Meredith

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: ibrahimkalin@gmail.com [mailto:ibrahimkalin@gmail.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, June 02, 2010 1:48 AM
   To: Meredith Friedman
   Subject: Re: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL
   Dear meredith. We look forward to seeing you in ankara tomorrow. I hope
   the event tonight goes well.
   What hotel will you be staying at in ankara? I will send a car for you.
   Ibrahim

   Bu e-posta, Turkcell BlackBerry ile go:nderilmistir.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Meredith Friedman\" <mfriedman@stratfor.com>
   Date: Wed, 2 Jun 2010 01:40:13 -0500
   To: 'Ozan Batarc,ikar'<ozan@selenagroup.com>
   Cc: 'Mu:jdat Uluc,am'<mulucam@kultursanat.org>; <ibrahimkalin@gmail.com>
   Subject: RE: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL
   Thank you Ozan - that sounds good. Also tomorrow night June 3 we will
   return to Istanbul on a 7p.m. Turkish Airlines flight from Ankara that
   arrives IST at 8:05p.m. If that changes at all to a later flight we'll
   notify you but please have a driver to meet us tomorrow night when we
   return as well.
    
   Best,
    
   Meredith Friedman

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Ozan Batarc,ikar [mailto:ozan@selenagroup.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, June 02, 2010 1:30 AM
   To: 'Meredith Friedman'
   Cc: 'Mu:jdat Uluc,am'; ibrahimkalin@gmail.com
   Subject: RE: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL

   Dear Mrs. Friedman,

   Good morning. Here are the answers of your questions.

    

    1. Public Lecture will be at CRR Concert Hall. So it is close to your
       hotel.
    2. If your meeting at Sabah finishes at 4:30 PM, than you will have time
       to go back to your hotel and you should leave the hotel around 6:20 PM
       (but not later than that)
    3. You wrote me that you flight to Ankara is at 23:55 so you suppose to
       be at the airport not later than 23:10. That means you suppose to move
       to airport at 22:40. Well under this circumstances you may have some
       time to go back to the hotel. You will have about an hour to spend.
    4. The driver will be there at the hotel at 11:15 as I mentioned before.
       If you can not find him at the lobby please call me.

    

   Best regards,

    

   OZAN BATARC,IKAR

   SELENA GROUP

   Istanbul Du:nya Ticaret Merkezi

   A1 Blok Kat 8 No 291, 34149

   Yesilko:y - Istanbul / Turkey

   Tel : + 90 212 465 00 90

   Fax : + 90 212 465 65 40

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Meredith Friedman [mailto:mfriedman@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, June 01, 2010 6:52 PM
   To: 'Ozan Batarc,ikar'
   Cc: 'Mu:jdat Uluc,am'; ibrahimkalin@gmail.com
   Subject: RE: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL

    

   Dear Ozan -

    

   Thank you for meeting us when we arrived in Istanbul yesterday. We have
   the 3 meetings tomorrow that I sent you but I don't know the address of
   the Public Lecture meeting at 7p.m. - do you know where it is or shall I
   write to our contact to ask?

    

   Also will we have time to come back to our hotel after the afternoon
   meeting at Sabah which should go probably from 3p.m.- 4:30p.m.?

    

   Second will we have time to come back to the hotel after the public
   lecture before going to the airport as we'll need to pick up some luggage
   to take with us. Please advise on timing for needing to leave for the
   airport and whether we should bring our luggage when we leave to go to the
   public lecture?

    

   best regards,

    

   Meredith Friedman

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Ozan Batarc,ikar [mailto:ozan@selenagroup.com]
   Sent: Friday, May 28, 2010 1:45 AM
   To: mfriedman@stratfor.com
   Cc: 'Mu:jdat Uluc,am'; ibrahimkalin@gmail.com
   Subject: YOUR ARRIVAL TO ISTANBUL

   Dear Mr. & Mrs. Friedman,

    

   Warm greetings and best wishes from Istanbul.

   Please kindly note that; me or one of my friends will be there at the
   airport to meet you with a signboard with your name on it. If you miss our
   representative at the airport please feel free to contact me. My GSM
   number is 0090 532 796 62 26.

    

   Best regards,

   OZAN BATARC,IKAR

   SELENA GROUP

   Istanbul Du:nya Ticaret Merkezi

   A1 Blok Kat 8 No 291, 34149

   Yesilko:y - Istanbul / Turkey

   Tel : + 90 212 465 00 90

   Fax : + 90 212 465 65 40

    
","2010-06-02 15:35:22",1,"2012-03-12 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/283431_re-your-arrival-to-istanbul-.html","","","tozhan@setav.org,ibrahimkalin@gmail.com,chasimi@gmail.com",""
286265,"FW: monitor guidance
","11","2009-07-21 02:01:51",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/286265_fw-monitor-guidance-.html","","","zucha@stratfor.com","attach/20/20529_Eurasia.doc
attach/20/20531_mesa.doc
attach/20/20532_Africa.doc
attach/20/20534_East Asia.doc
attach/20/20537_briefers.doc
attach/20/20539_Latam.doc"
287636,"FW: monitor guidance
","28","2009-07-17 22:17:57",1,"2012-02-28 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/287636_fw-monitor-guidance-.html","","","hooper@stratfor.com","attach/20/20529_Eurasia.doc
attach/20/20531_mesa.doc
attach/20/20532_Africa.doc
attach/20/20534_East Asia.doc
attach/20/20537_briefers.doc
attach/20/20539_Latam.doc"
287965,"RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2 - one more thought
","   One other thing -- from a branding perspective if we're serious about
   Quality, Status and Mystique I think showing too much of our inner
   workings devalues our Mystique. People don't know how we collect our
   intelligence and that's one of the cool, mysterious things about STRATFOR.
   Seeing raw intelligence come in would be cool for a few weeks but then it
   would become another expected product and we lose our mystique a little on
   source collection.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Meredith Friedman
   Sent: Thursday, October 01, 2009 9:55 AM
   To: scott stewart; friedman@att.blackberry.net; 'Darryl O'Connor'; 'Aaric
   Eisenstein'; 'Peter Zeihan'; 'George Friedman';
   maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
   Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
   Thanks, Stick, for laying this out. I have to say I support your position
   on this. As you mentioned yesterday, our sources would be talking to
   Reuters or other news organizations if they wanted their ideas published
   directly (even as anonymous sources) but they are not - they are talking
   to us because they know we protect not only their identity but use what
   they say in a careful way in our analysis or as sitreps.
    
   On the reverse side, if we blacked out every category of our source
   descriptions and coding it would be silly and make people wonder if we
   weren't making them up ourselves. We already show a lot of leg by sharing
   our internal intelligence guidance with our customers - that is sexy and
   something that makes us unique. I agree we would lose some of our best
   sources for intelligence if we began publishing what they send us in raw
   format no matter how carefully we try to disguise their identity.
    
   Meredith

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart [mailto:scott.stewart@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, October 01, 2009 9:43 AM
   To: friedman@att.blackberry.net; 'Darryl O'Connor'; 'Aaric Eisenstein';
   'Peter Zeihan'; 'George Friedman'; maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
   Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'; 'Meredith Friedman'
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
   OK, I have taken 24 hours to relax, calm down and think about this
   concept.
    
   Here are my thoughts.
    
    
   1) This may be a decent marketing idea, but in my opinion it is a terrible
   intelligence idea. In addition to the point I made yesterday about many of
   our sources not wanting to be paraded into the spotlight, it is also
   important to remember that we have sources in places like Iran, Syria,
   China and Russia who could be traced if we allowed that much of their
   writings and information to be published in raw form.  Allowing an
   intelligence service to isolate all the source reporting coming from that
   country would be very attractive to them and they would certainly attempt
   to determine who we are talking to, and who is talking to us, on a regular
   basis.
    
   We have an ethical responsible to do our best to protect our people - and
   from a purely selfish perspective if one of our people is identified and
   then whacked, arrested, or cowed by the authorities into no longer
   reporting, we can quickly lose an asset that have taken us years to
   develop.  This will hurt our publishing operations, and will not be
   sustainable in the long run.  We need to protect our most valuable -- and
   in most cases, our most sensitive -- sources for the future of the
   company. 
    
   2) We could do something like this with less-sensitive sources who agree
   to be published directly, but those less-sensitive sources will lack the
   sex appeal that Aaric is looking for and that will make this a rather
   bland product offering.
    
   3) Based on 1 and 2, it is my recommendation that we continue to handle
   insight as it is. That is, using it to inform our analysis and to make
   sure our published work remains very strong, and our CIS customers stay
   informed.  We can also continue to use critical pieces of insight directly
   as the basis for sitreps.  
    
   I have calmed down from yesterday, but I still feel very strongly that
   continuing to handle insight as we do is the best course of action for us
   as an intelligence company.
    
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@att.blackberry.net]
   Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 12:31 PM
   To: scott stewart; Darryl O'Connor; 'Aaric Eisenstein'; 'Peter Zeihan';
   George Friedman; maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
   Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
   We need to sit down and consider this. Sources we can't use are useless.
   Promiscuous use of sensitive sources is dangerous. This is an ongoing
   dilemma of intelligence. Since we aren't journalists there may be ways to
   deal with this. We need a policy. Stick, please put out your thoughts on
   this and then we will follow up. In the meantime we fold sensitive
   intelligence into analyses or sitreps on a case by case basis.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"scott stewart\"
   Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2009 12:18:26 -0400
   To: 'Darryl O'Connor'<oconnor@stratfor.com>; 'Aaric
   Eisenstein'<eisenstein@stratfor.com>; 'Peter
   Zeihan'<peter.zeihan@stratfor.com>; 'George
   Friedman'<gfriedman@stratfor.com>; <maverick.fisher@stratfor.com>
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2

   This is what I said to Aaric Monday. We really need to protect our people
   and our sources.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Darryl O'Connor [mailto:oconnor@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 12:05 PM
   To: 'Aaric Eisenstein'; 'scott stewart'; 'Peter Zeihan'; 'George
   Friedman'; maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
   Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
   my concern:
    
   does the source have website access?  let's assume so.  would they
   have the piss scared out of them to see their own words on our website?
   enough piss scared out of them to not want to be a source anymore?  
    
   this is not really my area and not trying to horn in on someone else's
   territory, but i thought it wouldn't hurt to ask the question.  
    
   over and out.
     

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Aaric Eisenstein [mailto:eisenstein@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 10:55 AM
   To: 'scott stewart'; 'Peter Zeihan'; 'George Friedman';
   maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
   Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'
   Subject: FW: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
   Can we publish the Insight below - redacted on source of course - as a
   test of the \"raw\" format as opposed to putting it into an article?  It'll
   be interesting to see what kind of feedback we get on the new format. 
   This Insight as good flavor in its raw form.
    
   Aaric S. Eisenstein
   Chief Innovation Officer
   STRATFOR
   512-744-4308
   512-744-4334 fax
   aaric.eisenstein@stratfor.com
   Follow us on http://Twitter.com/stratfor
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Peter Zeihan [mailto:zeihan@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 10:51 AM
   To: Aaron Colvin
   Cc: Secure List
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
   interesting -- they've put in a clod because they don't think he's smart
   enough to do anything

   would hate to be the clod

   clods are disposable

   Aaron Colvin wrote:

     SOURCE CODE: IR2

     PUBLICATION: Not Applicable

     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Tehran-based freelance journalist/analyst who is
     well plugged into the system

     ATTRIBUTION: Not Applicable

     SOURCE RELIABILITY: B

     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2

     SPECIAL HANDLING: Not Applicable

     DISTRIBUTION: Secure

     SOURCE HANDLER: Kamran

     I think the composition is very interesting. Jalili is no seasoned
     diplomat but he is someone both SL and Sepah could trust since his lower
     intellectual and political stature makes it less likely that he shows
     any independent streaks on tactical matters-- as someone like Larijani
     could have. The other two are career diplomats-technocrats with
     extensive knowledge of their respective fields. Jalili needs them for
     advice on legal niceties and for general political considerations. The
     third negotiator's presence is in indeed interesting. As you have
     noted, the  presence of someone from the Minstry of Economic Affairs
     serves to show Iran's seriouness in the talks. But it is just for the
     show as Iran knows that the talks will fail.
","2009-10-01 17:06:58",1,"2012-02-27 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/287965_re-insight-iran-delegation-to-geneva-ir2-one-more-thought-.html","","","mfriedman@stratfor.com,gfriedman@stratfor.com,oconnor@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,darryl.oconnor@stratfor.com,eisenstein@stratfor.com,friedman@att.blackberry.net,peter.zeihan@stratfor.com,maverick.fisher@stratfor.com,Richard.parker@stratfor.com,grant.perry@stratfor.com",""
290339,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
","   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marc Lanthemann\" <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-14 20:55:23",1,"2012-02-28 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/290339_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
290835,"MUST READ: New GV Process
","   Beginning today, we will put in place a new GV monitoring procedure.
    
   1. Watch officers will continue to post items to the alerts list to flag
   them as potential GV monitors. 
    
   2. Briefers will be responsible for sorting through those alerts (among
   other material), and will post those items that actually require monitors
   to a GV Folder on Clearspace
   (http://clearspace.stratfor.com/community/analysts/gv). That folder will
   be a central list of GV requests.
    
   3. Analysts will then produce GV Monitors for the requests in the folder
   and post them to the analyst list as usual.
    
   4. After any necessary discussion of the monitor is resolved on the
   list, the analyst will post the final GV Monitor as a reply to the request
   in the GV folder.
    
   5. A briefer will move completed GV requests from main GV folder into an
   archive folder, which will be a central repository for past GVs. The
   object is to keep that GV folder as near to empty as possible.
    
    
   This process incorporates briefers better into the GV process, and places
   on them the burden of sifting through the many items flagged for GV by the
   Watch Officers (who should keep up the good work). As GV monitors will
   only be written when requested by at least one briefer, we will avoid
   producing monitors that are not ultimately sent to any client (which
   currently happens).
    
   If analysts see items they think the briefers missed or underestimated the
   significance of, they should, of course, bring them to the briefers'
   attention. And briefers will continue to ask whether analysts think some
   developments are important enough to warrant a GV. This process is not
   meant to replace individual communication.
    
   This GV folder will give everyone a clear picture of which GV requests are
   outstanding, allowing better prioritization; and it will alert us when
   there is a backlog.
    
   Analysts will not need to check the GV folder constantly; they can receive
   email notifications whenever a new item is posted (go to
   http://clearspace.stratfor.com/community/analysts/gv and select \"Receive
   email notifications\" in the \"Actions & Notifications\" box on the right) or
   opt to use the space's RSS feed (also in the A&R box). GV requests that
   remain unanswered for 3 hours will automatically generate an email alert
   to the secure list.
    
   We are continuing to work on ways to improve the GV system. Please contact
   me with any questions.
    
    
   Joseph de Feo
   Briefer
   STRATFOR
   T: 703-469-2182 x2185
   F: 703-469-2189
   defeo@stratfor.com 
   _______________________
   www.stratfor.com
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
","2007-10-22 13:45:12",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/290835_must-read-new-gv-process-.html","defeo@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
291885,"MUST READ -- Welcome to the secure list
","   Hi everyone,
    
   As we are shifting the way we operate and adding new overseas monitors to
   the Stratfor team, we need to also change our own procedures to ensure our
   own efficiency, as well as the protection of our clients.
    
   Currently, the bulk of information in the company flows through the
   analysts@stratfor.com list, which the analysts, interns, writers,
   briefers, etc. belong to. The monitors need to be able to view the
   information flowing through the list to pick up on what issues we're
   looking at, see what information has already been posted and gradually get
   a feel of what's geopolitically significant. At the same time, it is
   unnecessary for monitors to be exposed to any client-related material that
   makes it to the list, including GV monitors and client reports/projects.
    
   To resolve this issue, we have created a new list called
   secure@stratfor.com. This list is to only be used for CLIENT-RELATED
   MATERIAL and anything else that should be shielded from the intern and
   monitor pools. From now on, DO NOT post anything client-related to the
   analysts@stratfor.com list. Only analysts (from geopol, public policy and
   security), briefers, writers and relevant managers belong to the secure
   list.
    
   Please discipline yourself to send client-related material to the secure
   list. This new system will help us manage the content of the analysts list
   and protect our clients' interests.
    
   A full list of the people on the secure list is added below. Let myself
   and IT know if someone is missing.
    
   Thanks,
    
   Reva Bhalla
   Strategic Forecasting Inc.
   Director of Geopolitical Analysis
   T: (512) 744-4316
   F: (512) 744-4334
   www.stratfor.com
    

      
     Rodger Baker
     Reva Bhalla
     Peter Zeihan
     Kamran Bokhari
     Mark Schroeder
     Jen Richmond
     Nate Hughes
     Lina Reznikov
      
     Amy Dalton
     Anya Alfano
     Joseph de Feo
      
     Bart Mongoven
     Kathy Morson
     Sarah Campbell
     Dan Kornfield
      
     Andrew Teekell
     Dan Burgess
      
      
     Marla Dial
     Walt Howerton
     Michael McCullar
     Lori Slaugenhoupt
     Les McLain
     Robin Blackburn
     Maverick Fisher
     Rachel Swindle
     Jeremy Edwards
      
     Fred Burton
     Mike Parks
     Scott Stewart
     Ron Moore
     George Friedman
","2006-11-15 22:11:41",1,"2012-02-27 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/291885_must-read-welcome-to-the-secure-list-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
293020,"(More)  INSIGHT - Terrorist Threat - CONUS ** Internal Use Only - Do Not Forward ** 
","   ** Internal Use Only - Do Not Forward **
    
   From an FBI HQS internal assessment --
    
   NYC, Washington, Seattle, Boston, Philadelphia and cities where there are
   major oil refineries.
    
   Detroit possibly because of  the border and large Arab population.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, August 27, 2007 7:05 PM
   To: 'CT'; 'Analysts'
   Subject: INSIGHT - Terrorist Threat - CONUS ** Internal Use Only - Do Not
   Forward **
   ** Internal Use Only - Do Not Forward **
    
   FBI advises in confidence and not for publication that the probability is
   very high that a major act of terror will occur any day in a large U.S.
   port city. 
    
   Small scale cells are not the fear, but a large event that will cause a
   significant amount of U.S. lives and economic chaos.  There have been a
   large number of suspected jihadis who have infiltrated into the United
   States that the FBI cannot find, in concert with a significant uptick in
   chatter (SIGINT) and the movement of terrorists and supplies (food and
   water) into caves in Afghanistan, in anticipation of large scale U.S.
   reprisals. 
    
   The FBI does not believe DC will be hit, but were unable to identify any
   specific cities other than \"a large U.S. port city.\"   
    
   After further assessment, the FBI believes the Seattle ferry surveillance
   were al-Qaeda suspects sent to \"ping the system as a false positive\" to
   tie up investigative resources.
    
   Situation was described as grave. 
    
   I have no further information. 
","2007-08-28 14:53:57",1,"2012-07-31 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/293020_-more-insight-terrorist-threat-conus-internal-use-only-do.html","burton@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,analysts@stratfor.com,ct@stratfor.com",""
294692,"FW: monitor guidance
","13","2009-07-21 02:00:50",1,"2012-06-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/294692_fw-monitor-guidance-.html","","","hooper@stratfor.com","attach/20/20529_Eurasia.doc
attach/20/20531_mesa.doc
attach/20/20532_Africa.doc
attach/20/20534_East Asia.doc
attach/20/20537_briefers.doc
attach/20/20539_Latam.doc"
299114,"Geopolitical Intelligence Report - Russia: Kosovo and the Asymmetry of Perceptions
","Here I am, an inveterate communist hater and yet I am pulling for Russia on 
this.  Why?  Because the U.S. has no business siding with or aiding the 
Kosovans in what they do.  The Kosovans are Muslims, which means they are 
our enemies.  They even allied -- as did the Bosnian Muslims - in WWII with 
the Germans in slaughtering hundreds of thousands of Christian Serbs and 
opposing the Allies, whereas the Serbs were our allies, and saved hundreds 
(if not thousands) of American and British airmen who were shot down in that 
area.

In the 90s, the U.S. went against the Serbs because it suited Clinton's 
political purposes by demonizing them to draw attention away from his 
pittypat with Monica, and drawing DNC money from Red China, in exchange for 
arranging the supply of our missile technology to them, as well as making 
other financial committments to them, such as the import of 600,000 AK47s 
immediately prior to the changes to the Gun Control Act in 1994.  Clinton 
has been and continues to be slime in every respect and his political 
ambitions have placed America in jeopardy and worked against America's 
allies.  So in the end, it is not really the Russians I am pulling for, but 
the Serbs.  They deserve much, much better from us -- and even separate from 
them, we had no right to strike a deal with the Russians on the issue and 
then backstab them.

In the 21st century, threats to America are coming from Red China and Islam, 
and any American leadership should recognize the need to gather with all 
others with out common interests (Russia, Europe, India, and some of the far 
Eastern nations) into a mutually protective coalition.  We have no business 
making enemies of them.
*************************

----- Original Message ----- 
From: \"Stratfor\" <noreply@stratfor.com>
To: <fhwandell@accessbee.com>
Sent: Tuesday, December 18, 2007 4:30 PM
Subject: Geopolitical Intelligence Report - Russia: Kosovo and the Asymmetry 
of Perceptions


>
>
> Stratfor: Geopolitical Intelligence Report - December 18, 2007
>
>
> Join the conversation! Read and respond to George Friedman's new blog, 
> Friedman Writes Back
>
> http://blogs.stratfor.com/friedman/
>
> just a first taste of the new features coming soon in Stratfor 2.0.
>
> http://www.stratfor.com/offers/071124-stratfor2/
>
>  Russia: Kosovo and the Asymmetry of Perceptions
>
>
>
> By George Friedman
>
> Kosovo appears to be an archaic topic. The Yugoslavian question was a 
> 1990s issue, while the Kosovo issue has appeared to be one of those 
> conflicts that never quite goes away but isn't regarded very seriously by 
> the international community. You hear about it but you don't care about 
> it. However, Kosovo is getting very serious again.
>
> The United States and Europe appear committed to making Kosovo, now a 
> province of Serbia, an independent state. Of course, Serbia opposes this, 
> but more important, so does Russia. Russia opposed the original conflict, 
> but at that point it was weak and its wishes were irrelevant. Russia 
> opposes independence for Kosovo now, and it is far from the weak state it 
> was in 1999 -- and is not likely to take this quietly. Kosovo's potential 
> as a flash point between Russia and the West makes it important again. 
> Let's therefore review the action to this point.
>
> In 1999, NATO, led by the United States, conducted a 60-day bombing 
> campaign against Yugoslavia and its main component, Serbia. The issue was 
> the charge that Yugoslavia was sponsoring the mass murder of ethnic 
> Albanians in Kosovo, just as it had against Bosnian Muslims. The campaign 
> aimed to force the Yugoslav army out of Kosovo while allowing a NATO force 
> to occupy and administer the province.
>
> Two strands led to this action. The first was the fear that the 
> demonstrable atrocities committed by Serbs in Bosnia were being repeated 
> in Kosovo. The second was the general feeling dominant in the 1990s that 
> the international community's primary task was dealing with rogue states 
> behaving in ways that violated international norms. In other words, it was 
> assumed that there was a general international consensus on how the world 
> should look, that the United States was the leader of this international 
> consensus and that there was no power that could threaten the United 
> States or the unity of the vision. There were only weak, isolated rogue 
> states that had to be dealt with. There was no real risk attached to these 
> operations. Yugoslavia was identified as one of those rogue states. The 
> United States, without the United Nations but with the backing of most 
> European countries, dealt with it.
>
> There was no question that Serbs committed massive atrocities in Bosnia, 
> and that Bosnians and Croats carried out massive atrocities against Serbs. 
> These atrocities occurred in the context of Yugoslavia's explosion after 
> the end of the Cold War. Yugoslavia had been part of an arc running from 
> the Danube to the Hindu Kush, frozen into place by the Cold War. Muslims 
> had been divided by the line, with some living in the former Soviet Union 
> but most on the other side. The Yugoslav state consisted of Catholics, 
> Orthodox Christians and Muslims; it was communist but anti-Soviet and 
> cooperated with the United States. It was an artificial state imposed on 
> multiple nationalities by the victors of World War I and held in place 
> after World War II by the force field created by U.S.-Soviet power. When 
> the Soviets fell, the force field collapsed and Yugoslavia detonated, 
> followed later by the rest of the arc.
>
> The NATO mission, then, was to stabilize the western end of this arc, 
> Yugoslavia. The strategy was to abolish the multinational state created 
> after World War I and replace it with a series of nation-states -- such as 
> Slovenia and Macedonia -- built around a coherent national unit. This 
> would stabilize Yugoslavia. The problem with this plan was that each 
> nation-state would contain substantial ethnic minorities, regardless of 
> attempts to redraw the borders. Thus, Bosnia contains Serbs. But the 
> theory was that small states overwhelmingly consisting of one nationality 
> could remain stable in the face of ethnic diversity so long as there was a 
> dominant nation -- unlike Yugoslavia, where there was no central national 
> grouping.
>
> So NATO decided to re-engineer the Balkans much as they were re-engineered 
> after World War I. NATO and the United States got caught in a weird 
> intellectual trap. On the one hand, there was an absolute consensus that 
> the post-World War II borders of Europe were sacrosanct. If that wasn't 
> the case, then Hungarians living in Romanian Transylvania might want to 
> rejoin Hungary, Turkish regions of Cyprus might want to join Turkey, 
> Germany might want to reclaim Silesia and Northern Ireland might want to 
> secede from the United Kingdom. All hell could break loose, and one of the 
> ways Europe avoided hell after 1945 was a cardinal rule: No borders would 
> shift.
>
> The re-engineering of Yugoslavia was not seen as changing borders. Rather, 
> it was seen as eliminating a completely artificial state and freeing 
> genuine nations to have their own states. But it was assumed that the 
> historic borders of those states could not be changed merely because of 
> the presence of other ethnic groups concentrated in a region. So the 
> desire of Bosnian Serbs to join Serbia was rejected, both because of the 
> atrocious behavior of the Bosnian Serbs and because it would have shifted 
> the historic borders of Bosnia. If all of this seems a bit tortured, 
> please recall the hubris of the West in the 1990s. Anything was possible, 
> including re-engineering the land of the south Slavs, as Yugoslavia's name 
> translates in English.
>
> In all of this, Serbia was seen as the problem. Rather than viewing 
> Yugoslavia as a general failed project, Serbia was seen not so much as 
> part of the failure but as an intrinsically egregious actor that had to be 
> treated differently than the rest, given its behavior, particularly 
> against the Bosnians. When it appeared that the Serbs were repeating their 
> actions in Bosnia against Albanian Muslims in 1999, the United States and 
> other NATO allies felt they had to intervene.
>
> In fact, the level of atrocities in Kosovo never approached what happened 
> in Bosnia, nor what the Clinton administration said was going on before 
> and during the war. At one point, it was said that hundreds of thousands 
> of men were missing, and later that 10,000 had been killed and bodies were 
> being dissolved in acid. The post-war analysis never revealed any 
> atrocities on this order of magnitude. But that was not the point. The 
> point was that the United States had shifted to a post-Cold War attitude, 
> and that since there were no real threats against the United States, the 
> primary mission of foreign policy was dealing with minor rogue states, 
> preventing genocide and re-engineering unstable regions. People have 
> sought explanations for the Kosovo war in vast and complex conspiracies. 
> The fact is that the motivation was a complex web of domestic political 
> concerns and a genuine belief that the primary mission was to improve the 
> world.
>
> The United States dealt with its concerns over Kosovo by conducting a 
> 60-day bombing campaign designed to force Yugoslavia to withdraw from 
> Kosovo and allow NATO forces in. The Yugoslav government, effectively the 
> same as the Serbian government by then, showed remarkable resilience, and 
> the air campaign was not nearly as effective as the air forces had hoped. 
> The United States needed a war-ending strategy. This is where the Russians 
> came in.
>
> Russia was weak and ineffective, but it was Serbia's only major ally. The 
> United States prevailed on the Russians to initiate diplomatic contacts 
> and persuade the Serbs that their position was isolated and hopeless. The 
> carrot was that the United State agreed that Russian peacekeeping troops 
> would participate in Kosovo. This was crucial for the Serbians, as it 
> seemed to guarantee the interests of Serbia in Kosovo, as well as the 
> rights of Serbs living in Kosovo. The deal brokered by the Russians called 
> for a withdrawal of the Serbian army from Kosovo and entry into Kosovo of 
> a joint NATO-Russian force, with the Russians guaranteeing that Kosovo 
> would remain part of Serbia.
>
> This ended the war, but the Russians were never permitted -- let alone 
> encouraged -- to take their role in Serbia. The Russians were excluded 
> from the Kosovo Force (KFOR) decision-making process and were isolated 
> from NATO's main force. When Russian troops took control of the airport in 
> Pristina in Kosovo at the end of the war, they were surrounded by NATO 
> troops.
>
> In effect, NATO and the United States reneged on their agreement with 
> Russia. Russian President Boris Yeltsin and the Russian Foreign Ministry 
> caved in the face of this reneging, leaving the Russian military -- which 
> had ordered the Kosovo intervention -- hanging. In 1999, this was a fairly 
> risk-free move by the West. The Russians were in no position to act.
>
> The degree to which Yeltsin's humiliation in Kosovo led to the rise of 
> Vladimir Putin is not fully understood. Putin represented a faction in the 
> intelligence-military community that regarded Kosovo as the last straw. 
> There were, of course, other important factors leading to the rise of 
> Putin, but the Russian perception that the United States had 
> double-crossed them in an act of supreme contempt was a significant 
> factor. Putin came to office committed to regaining Russian intellectual 
> influence after Yeltsin's inertia.
>
> The current decision by the United States and some European countries to 
> grant independence to Kosovo must be viewed in this context. First, it is 
> the only case in Yugoslavia in which borders are to shift because of the 
> presence of a minority. Second, it continues the policy of re-engineering 
> Yugoslavia. Third, it proceeds without either a U.N. or NATO mandate, as 
> an action supported by independent nations -- including the United States 
> and Germany. Finally, it flies in the face of Russian wishes.
>
> This last one is the critical point. The Russians clearly are concerned 
> that this would open the door for the further redrawing of borders, paving 
> the way for Chechen independence movements, for example. But that isn't 
> the real issue. The real issue is that Serbia is an ally of Russia, and 
> the Russians do not want Kosovar independence to happen. From Putin's 
> point of view, he came to power because the West simply wouldn't take 
> Russian wishes seriously. If there were a repeat of that display of 
> indifference, his own authority would be seriously weakened.
>
> Putin is rebuilding the Russian sphere of influence in the former Soviet 
> Union. He is meeting with the Belarusians over reintegration. He is 
> warning Ukraine not to flirt with NATO membership. He is reasserting 
> Russian power in the Caucasus and Central Asia. His theme is simple: 
> Russia is near and strong; NATO is far away and weak. He is trying to 
> define Russian power in the region. Though Kosovo is admittedly peripheral 
> to this region, if no European power is willing to openly challenge 
> Russian troops in Kosovo, then Russia will have succeeded in portraying 
> NATO as a weak and unreliable force.
>
> If the United States and some European powers can create an independent 
> Kosovo without regard to Russian wishes, Putin's prestige in Russia and 
> the psychological foundations of his grand strategy will suffer a huge 
> blow. If Kosovo is granted independence outside the context of the United 
> Nations, where Russia has veto power, he will be facing the same crisis 
> Yeltsin did. If he repeats Yeltsin's capitulation, he will face 
> substantial consequences. Putin and the Russians repeatedly have warned 
> that they wouldn't accept independence for Kosovo, and that such an act 
> would lead to an uncontrollable crisis. Thus far, the Western powers 
> involved appear to have dismissed this. In our view, they shouldn't. It is 
> not so much what Putin wants as the consequences for Putin if he does not 
> act. He cannot afford to acquiesce. He will create a crisis.
>
> Putin has two levers. One is economic. The natural gas flowing to Europe, 
> particularly to Germany, is critical for the Europeans. Putin has a large 
> war chest saved from high energy prices. He can live without exports 
> longer than the Germans can live without imports. It is assumed that he 
> wouldn't carry out this cutoff. This assumption does not take into account 
> how important the Kosovo issue is to the Russians.
>
> The second option is what we might call the \"light military\" option. 
> Assume that Putin would send a battalion or two of troops by air to 
> Belgrade, load them onto trucks and send them toward Pristina, claiming 
> this as Russia's right under agreements made in 1999. Assume a squadron of 
> Russian aircraft would be sent to Belgrade as well. A Russian naval 
> squadron, including the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, already is 
> headed to the Mediterranean . Obviously, this is not a force that could 
> impose anything on NATO. But would the Germans, for example, be prepared 
> to open fire on these troops?
>
> If that happened, there are other areas of interest to Russia and the West 
> where Russia could exert decisive military power, such as the Baltic 
> states. If Russian troops were to enter the Baltics, would NATO rush 
> reinforcements there to fight them? The Russian light military threat in 
> Kosovo is that any action there could lead to a Russian reaction 
> elsewhere.
>
> The re-engineering of the Balkans always has assumed that there is no 
> broader geopolitical price involved. Granting Kosovo independence would 
> put Russia in a position in which interests that it regards as fundamental 
> are challenged. Even if the West doesn't see why this should be the case, 
> the Russians have made clear that it is so -- and have made statements 
> essentially locking themselves into a response or forcing themselves to 
> accept humiliation. Re-engineering a region where there is no risk is one 
> thing; re-engineering a region where there is substantial risk is another.
>
> In our view, the Russians would actually welcome a crisis. Putin wants to 
> demonstrate that Russia is a great power. That would influence thinking 
> throughout the former Soviet Union, sobering eastern Central Europe as 
> well -- and Poland in particular. Confronting the West as an equal and 
> backing it into a corner is exactly what he would like. In our view, Putin 
> will seize the Kosovo issue not because it is of value in and of itself 
> but because it gives him a platform to move his strategic policy forward.
>
> The Germans have neither the resources nor the appetite for such a crisis. 
> The Americans, bogged down in the Islamic world, are hardly in a position 
> to deal with a crisis over Kosovo. The Russian view is that the West has 
> not reviewed its policies in the Balkans since 1999 and has not grasped 
> that the geopolitics of the situation have changed. Nor, in our view, has 
> Washington or Berlin grasped that a confrontation is exactly what the 
> Russians are looking for.
>
> We expect the West to postpone independence again, and to keep postponing 
> it. But the Albanians might force the issue by declaring unilateral 
> independence. The Russians would actually be delighted to see this. But 
> here is the basic fact: For the United States and its allies, Kosovo is a 
> side issue of no great importance. For the Russians, it is both a 
> hot-button issue and a strategic opportunity. The Russians won't roll over 
> this time. And the asymmetry of perceptions is what crises are made of.
>
> Tell George what you think
>
> Get your own copy
>
>
>
>
> Stratfor Premium members can access regular updates, in-depth analysis and 
> expanded coverage on this issue by logging in at http://www.stratfor.com/ 
> . If you are not a Premium member and are interested in gaining full 
> access to Stratfor, please click here [ 
> http://www.stratfor.com/current.php?ref=alert ] to take advantage of our 
> special introductory rates.
>
> Contact Us
> Analysis Comments - mailto:analysis@stratfor.com
> Customer Service, Access, Account Issues - mailto:service@stratfor.com
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
","2007-12-19 02:01:29",1,"2012-07-01 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/299114_geopolitical-intelligence-report-russia-kosovo-and-the.html","fhwandell@accessbee.com","","responses@stratfor.com",""
299775,"RE: CLIENT PROJECT - MUST READ
","   Here's some guidance on the industry trends/market conditions point:
    1. issues concerning petroleum supply/price (as stated) -- this is the
       biggest item to note, especially as it affects MNCs
    2. nationaliziation of oil (anything that might make it harder for the
       chem company to get petroleum, which is their major input)
    3. increasing regulation of chemicals/products or talk of increasing
       regulation (health and environmental concerns, or ways to block MNCs
       from selling things in your AOR)
    4. increasing regulation of industrial facilities or talk of increasing
       regulation (anything to make it harder for a facility to operate or
       for a new facility to be built)
    5. product recalls and import/export issues of products (like the mattel
       fiasco in china last year)
    6. overall treatment of MNCs in your AOR
    
    
    
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, February 27, 2008 7:46 PM
   To: secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: CLIENT PROJECT - MUST READ
   Importance: High
   Another MATCH fishing task that's going to require input from the whole
   team.  This one is due MARCH 4, at 1pm CST to Joe deFeo (cc me). No edit
   required.
    
   Stay tuned for more guidance on this as the project develops. Read the
   tasking order carefully.
    
   TASK:
    
   The client asked for BRIEF bullet points on current and potential risks
   facing the chemicals industry in general, any current or potential risks
   facing the following companies specifically:

   Formosa Plastics Corporation
   CMX
   Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.
   Lyondell
   Rockwood Specialties Group, Inc.
   Chemtura Corporation
   ICC Industries
   Symrise
   Gen-Tek
    
    

   This is a large number of companies, and we will limit aspects of the
   research to keep this manageable for us and the client.

    

   Final product should include the following:

    

    1. Overview of current or potential threats facing the chemicals industry
       in general. (TO BE DONE BY PUBLIC POLICY TEAM -- Kathy in lead)

         a. market conditions, industry trends

   b.      NGOs, labor

    2. Threats facing the above companies or their main products specifically
       (please include brief lists of major products in the final research
       paper). (LIST WILL BE COMPILED AND POLISHED BY RESEARCH TEAM; Items a,
       b, c below will be compiled by the Analysts. Public policy will be
       taking the lead on a lot of this, but the regional analysts will also
       need to provide any relevant bullets on the points below)
   PUBLIC POLICY TEAM -- Will need to provide guidance on what kinds of
   industry trends and market conditions would be most relevant for the
   chemical industry.
     a. Current or potential threats from market conditions, industry trends
        directly affecting the companies (e.g., petroleum supply and price)
     b. Current or potential threats from NGOs, labor campaigns facing the
        companies or their products specifically (e.g., campaigns against PVC
        affect Formosa) 
     c. Current security threats; client only needs to be aware of any known
        security issues facing the companies. Quick notes only, no
        predictions/assessments needed. Do not spend a large amount of time
        on security.

   FOR RESEARCH TEAM --  First find out each company's most important
   products; be on the lookout especially for the following substances/terms:

   .   plastics, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) or vinyl, plastic additives (such
   as Bisphenol A or phthalates), polycarbonate plastics

   .   flame retardants (brominated flame retardants, polybrominated diphenyl
   ethers or PBDEs; e.g., Octa-BDE and Deca-BDE)

   .   perfluorinated chemicals (also called non-stick chemicals, PFOS and
   PFOA)

   .   Substances involving chlorine, fluorine, bromine

    

   Do not spend a large amount of time on a company if there seem to be no
   specific threats to it.

    

   To help determine NGO and labor threats against these specific companies,
   we have researched the facility locations for each. The full list can be
   found below.

    

   The research team will be sending out a well-organized list of the
   products each of these companies produce so you can have that background
   information handy.

    

   .         Formosa Plastics Corporation (biggest PVC resins manufacturer
   worldwide; many subsidiaries, focus on the Taiwanese parent and Formosa
   Plastics USA)

    

   LOCATIONS:

    

   EAST ASIA - Taiwan

   NORTH AMERICA - US

    

   .         CMX (previously Schoor De Palma; not sure what chemicals work it
   does)

    

   LOCATIONS:

    

   NORTH AMERICA - New Jersey, Arizona, Pennsylvania, New York, Maryland,
   Florida, Nevada and Mexico

    

   .         Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (major supplier of atmospheric
   and specialty gases [e.g., hydrogen] for industrial, healthcare, and
   commercial use; semiconductor materials; natural gas liquefaction;
   manufacturing locations worldwide)

   .          

   LOCATIONS:

    

   AFRICA - South Africa

   LATAM - Brazil, Mexico, Trinidad and Tobago

   NORTH AMERICA - Canada

   EAST ASIA - China, HK, Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Taiwan,
   Japan, Thailand

   SOUTH ASIA - India

   EUROPE - Belgium, Czech Repub, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy,
   Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, UK

   MIDEAST - Algeria, Turkey, Israel, Qatar, UAE

    

    

   .         Lyondell (Houston-based; big producer of ethylenes,
   polyproylenes -- also diacetyl [popcorn lung chemical], I think; refinery
   operations)

    

   LOCATIONS:

    

   NORTH AMERICA - US

   LATAM - Brazil

   EUROPE - Netherlands, France

   EAST ASIA - China, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan

   SOUTH ASIA - India

   .         Rockwood Specialties Group, Inc. (U.S.-based manufacturer of
   specialty chemicals, among other things; focus on the chem., additives,
   coatings divisions)

    

   LOCATIONS:

    

   EUROPE - France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden,
   Switzerland, UK, Austria, Czech Republic

    

   EAST ASIA- Australia, China, Singapore, Taiwan

    

   LATAM- Brazil, Mexico, Chile

    

   NORTH AMERICA- US, Canada

    

   MESA - India, Turkey,

    

   AFRICA - South Africa

    

   .         Chemtura Corporation (U.S. company; makes plastic additives,
   flame retardants, fluorinated compounds -- big trouble, all)

    

   LOCATIONS:

    

   EAST ASIA - China, Australia, South Korea, Thailand, Singapore

   LATAM - Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Ecuador

   EURASIA - Czech Rep, France, Greece, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Kazakhstan,
   Moldova, Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia,
   Switzerland, UK, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Belarus

   MESA - Turkey, India, Saudi Arabia

    

   (to check what kind of activities in each country -
   http://www.chemtura.com/corporate/v/index.jsp?vgnextoid=7f0597b9cc85c010VgnVCM10000052d7010aRCRD&vgnextchannel=7f0597b9cc85c010VgnVCM10000052d7010aRCRD&vgnextfmt=default)

    

    

   .         ICC Industries (pharma chemicals and others; might still be
   involved in generic drug manufacturing)

   LOCATIONS:

    

   EURASIA - United Kingdom, Hungary, Romania, Czech Rep, Slovakia, Russia
   (production facilities); Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Belgium,
   Netherlands, Poland Serbia (trading offices)

    

   EAST ASIA - China (production facilities); Indonesia, Japan (trading
   offices)

    

   MESA - Israel (production facilities); Turkey (Trading offices)

    

    

   .         Symrise (German -- food additives and fragrance; what
   specifically?)

    

   LOCATIONS:

    

   LATAM - Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Taiwan, Thailand,
   Venezuela

   EURASIA - Poland, Russia, Netherlands, Ukraine, UK, Italy, Spain

   MESA - India, Turkey

   EAST ASIA - Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand

   AFRICA - South Africa

    

    

   .         Gen-Tek (pharma/personal care chemicals, fuel additives)

    

   LOCATIONS:

    

   NORTH AMERICA - US, Canada

   LATAM - Brazil

    

    
","2008-02-28 02:15:27",1,"2012-02-27 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/299775_re-client-project-must-read-.html","morson@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
309308,"Re: FOR COMMENT - Conclusion to Egypt monograph - Contemporary
	Challenges: Life After Mubarak
","   Hola Reva,
   Can we go ahead and edit the for comment version of the monograph? Thanks!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, December 12, 2011 4:22:40 PM
   Subject: FOR COMMENT - Conclusion to Egypt monograph -
   Contemporary        Challenges: Life After Mubarak

    

   Contemporary Challenges: Life After Mubarak

    

   Early 2011 was a dramatic period in modern Egyptian history. The
   mainstream mediaa**s narrative on the Arab Spring portrayed popular
   uprisings as the driving force that swept away the regime of Hosni Mubarak
   and opened the door to democracy. But a closer examination indicates that
   the rules of the past still apply. Concentration of power, physical
   isolation from the outside world, and dependence upon outside forces for
   economic security remain the trifecta that drives Egyptian society and
   governmental development.

   To understand the Arab Spring one must first understand the factors that
   led to it. This is a discussion that must begin, not with the aspirations
   of those that protested in Tahrir square, but with the strategic
   imperatives of the military, the true vanguard of the Egyptian state.

   Nassera**s plan to elevate the military as the vanguard of society worked,
   but in years after Nassera**s death the military itself shifted position.
   Rather than partnering with the Soviets to create a regional sphere of
   influence, the military evolved its vanguard position in Egyptian society
   into a system of ossified control. The state still owned nearly everything
   of worth, but it was managed by and for the benefit of the military brass.
   Everything from banks to import/export to agriculture -- already heavily
   influenced by the military under the vanguard system -- was consolidated
   into a series of military oligarchies. Rather than working to elevate
   Egypt economically, the military oligarchs mostly divvied up the local
   spoils and lived large.

   This was a stable system from the late-1970s until the mid-2000s.
   Egypta**s shielded geography limited the ability of any international
   economic interest to challenge the military staffsa** personal fiefdoms.
   Egypta**s partnership with the Americans mitigated international pressure
   of all sorts, and in many ways even Egypta**s ostracism from the Arab
   world due to its treaty with Israel allowed Egypta**s generals to rule
   Egypt however they saw fit.

   As (now deposed) President Mubarak aged, however, an internal challenge
   arose to the military oligarchy in the form of the former presidenta**s
   son, Gamal Mubarak, who wanted to transform Egypt from a military
   oligarchy into a more traditional Egyptian dynasty. Doing this required
   the breaking of the militarya**s hold on the economy. Gamal and his allies
   -- often with the express assistance of international institutions like
   the World Bank -- worked to a**privatizea** Egyptian state assets to
   themselves. This process was a direct threat to the militarya**s political
   and economic position at the top of Egyptian society. The military also
   viewed Gamal, who never completed his military service, as a political
   neophyte, incapable of understanding and managing the countrya**s security
   imperatives.

   The result was the a**Arab Springa**. In the months leading up to the
   January demonstrations, Egypta**s top generals were delivering very stern
   ultimatums to the president to abandon any hope of passing the reins to
   Gamal while looking at their options to unseat Mubarak via more
   unconventional means. The military strategically positioned itself early
   on in the demonstration as the honest broker and guardian of the
   protesters, taking care to avoid a violent crackdown on the demonstrators
   while Mubaraka**s internal security forces were vilified on the streets.
   Such a light hand was not due to lack of capacity, but due to lack of
   need. The demonstrations provided the generals with the means to dismantle
   the Mubarak legacy, the biggest liability to their own livelihood, while
   maintaining the paramount role of the military. 

   But perhaps the most central indication that the a**revolutiona** was
   misconstrued comes from the participation levels. On the day that Mubarak
   ultimately stepped down the protests reached their peak. By the most
   aggressive estimate only 750,000 people -- less than 1 percent of the
   population of densely populated Egypt a** took to the streets. In true
   revolutions such as that which overthrew Communism in Central Europe or
   the shah in Iran, the proportion regularly breached 10 percent and on
   occasions even touched 50 percent. In short, Egypta**s Arab Spring was a
   palace coup, not a revolution.

   But the militarya**s Mubarak removal strategy did not come without risks.
   The military would much prefer to return to the days of ruling behind the
   scenes while leaving day to day governing to a civilian government that
   ultimately answers to the generals. But the political opening that the
   military helped to create has also greatly complicated matters: the
   military must now employ a much more complex balancing act at home to
   altogether keep the civilian government impotent, the opposition divided
   and foreign funding flowing toward a half-hearted democratic transition.

   With trade and tourism severely curtailed as a result of Egypta**s
   political unrest, the military must place extra effort in keeping up
   democratic appearances with the west now that the country is once against
   dependent upon the economic largess of outside powers. In dealing with the
   opposition at home, the military is no stranger to divide-and-conquer
   tactics and has maintained a robust intelligence service to keep tabs on
   already severely divided opposition. But the signs of strain are already
   showing, as the military now needs to learn how to manage an
   Islamist-concentrated opposition in parliament as opposed to its usual
   practice of making mass arrests and breaking up sporadic demonstrations.
   The rewriting of Egypta**s constitution a** a process that the military
   intends to fully control a** is likely to be one of several major
   disappointments that the opposition is likely to contend with in the
   months ahead, adding more friction to the already delicate arrangements
   the military has been seeking out with key opposition factions in trying
   to remove this fight from the streets.

   The more attention the Egyptian military must devote to internal matters,
   the more its problems will grow in the immediate neighborhood. A
   US-Arab-Turkish consensus on the need to contain Iran has Syria to the
   north in the regional spotlight, where a domestic political crisis is fast
   evolving into a regional proxy battle. Meanwhile, Islamist Palestinian
   movement Hamas is preparing itself for change to come out of Damascus
   (where its politbureau is currently headquartered,) while trying to
   leverage the political evolution that is already well under way in Egypt.
   The political legitimacy being granted to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt
   via this political transition has provided Hamas, an outgrowth of the MB,
   with an opportunity to rebrand itself as a mainstream political operator,
   one that is just as capable as the Egyptian MB to break out of political
   isolation in Gaza. 

   But Hamas will have to do more than a public relations campaign to break
   out of isolation.  The Egyptian military, which shares Israela**s interest
   in keeping Hamas contained and the Sinai buffer clear of foreign threats,
   remains the biggest obstacle to Hamasa** strategic objective of dominating
   the Palestinian political scene without Egyptian and Israeli shackles.
   Hamas would like to see a political evolution in Egypt that results in an
   Egyptian Islamist government friendly to Hamas and hostile to Israeli
   interests. This is an ambitious agenda, but is one likely worth working
   toward from the point of view of the Hamas leadership. The best chance
   that Hamas has in accelerating this evolution is by creating a crisis of
   legitimacy for the Egyptian military by drawing the military into a
   conflict with Israel. This can be accomplished in a variety of ways, and
   there is no shortage of militant proxies that have benefited from the
   Egyptian militarya**s political distractions to expand their area of
   operations in the Sinai. Israel is already frustrated by the Egyptian
   militarya**s slackened control over the Sinai and tends to revert to a
   more preemptive regional posture when neighborhood threats cross a certain
   line. Add to this the potential for Iran and Syria to exercise their
   militant proxy options to take the attention off regime change campaigns
   in Damascus, and Egypt could find itself in the midst of a Sinai crisis
   with Israel that both sides have spent the past 33 years desperately
   trying to avoid.

   This is not an evolution that will take place overnight. After all, Israel
   and Egypt went to war in 1973 to create the very peace that they are
   trying to preserve. This peace treaty is the foundation of external
   security for both sides of the Sinai peninsula and it will take a lot of
   organization and effort to break it apart, but the coming years will also
   put place the Arab-Israeli balance of power, as defined by peace between
   Egypt and Israel, under an unprecedented level of strain.

   --
   Maverick Fisher
   Director, Writers and Graphics
   STRATFOR
   221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
   Austin, TX 78701
   T: +1 512 744 4322 | F: +1 512 744 4334
   www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-12-13 17:02:27",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/309308_re-for-comment-conclusion-to-egypt-monograph-contemporary.html","fisher@stratfor.com","","McCullar@stratfor.com,reva.bhalla@stratfor.com",""
321063,"Re: Ranch
","   Very funny. Hawley must have told you I got it stuck last weekend.

   Steve McCoy wrote:

 Looks like it is getting another good rain now.

 Be careful if you go to the Mexican Flat - you might get your suburban stuck.....

  

   --
   Michael McCullar
   Senior Editor, Special Projects
   STRATFOR
   E-mail: mccullar@stratfor.com
   Tel: 512.744.4307
   Cell: 512.970.5425
   Fax: 512.744.4334
","2010-03-16 11:13:21",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/321063_re-ranch-.html","mccullar@stratfor.com","","bill.daves@e2mpartners.com,Steve.McCoy@transwestern.net,Alan.Harrington@transwestern.net,bhawley@lockelord.com,jimtarpley@att.net",""
339396,"RE: Insight - The Dems & Dirty Tricks ** Internal Use Only - Pls Do Not Forward ** 
","   Well, look at it this way. The Dems quit pretending and admitted to
   themselves that to win it you have to get off your high horse and play
   dirty when you have to. And they won.
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, November 07, 2008 7:41 AM
   To: secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: Insight - The Dems & Dirty Tricks ** Internal Use Only - Pls Do
   Not Forward **
   ** Internal Use Only - Pls Do Not Forward **
    
   1) The black Dems were caught stuffing the ballot boxes in Philly and Ohio
   as reported the night of the election and Sen. McCain chose not to
   fight.   The matter is not dead inside the party.  It now becomes a matter
   of sequence now as to how and when to \"out\".  
    
   2) It appears the Dems \"made a donation\" to Rev. Jesse (no, they would
   never do that!) to keep his yap shut after his diatribe about the Jews and
   Israel.  A little bird told me it was a \"nice six-figure donation\".  This
   also becomes a matter of how and when to out.  
    
   3) The hunt is on for the sleezy Russian money into O-mans coffers.  A
   smoking gun has already been found.  Will get more on this when the time
   is right.  My source was too giddy to continue.  Can you say Clinton and
   ChiCom funny money?   This also becomes a matter of how and when to out.  
","2008-11-07 14:45:50",1,"2012-02-27 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/339396_re-insight-the-dems-and-dirty-tricks-internal-use-only-pls.html","howerton@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
347043,"Insight - McCain #5 ** internal use only - Pls do not forward ** 
","   Further --
    
   After discussions with his inner circle, which explains the delay in his
   speech, McCain decided not to pursue the voter fraud in PA and Ohio,
   despite his staff's desire to make it an issue.  He said no.  Staff felt
   they could get a federal injunction to stop the process.  McCain felt the
   crowds assembled in support of Obama and such would be detrimental to our
   country and it would do our nation no good for this to drag out like last
   go around, coupled with the possibility of domestic violence. 
    
   My guy said many were shocked, but after reflecting upon his decision,
   thought he put the country first.  
    
   -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    
   Curiously, there are whispers of McCain being set up by the Cheney/Bush
   crowd, because McCain was never liked by either.   Some are shocked he did
   so well.  Coupled with serious errors in tactics.  Some made no sense. 
   For example, the Hispanics in Florida loved Palin but his camp would never
   send her there when easy money was to be had.  My guy said Rove and
   company want to bring in someone they can control next go around.  McCain
   was not controllable.  Jeb Bush's name is being discussed.   Source
   advised Rick Davis was an arsehole and McCain's econ team had no clue,
   trusting in academics vice business-people.  The Jewish crowd was split
   and money never flowed.  For example, McCain staff only gave $3000.00 for
   nationwide ads, when Obama put in $500,000 targeting the Jewish community
   in Florida alone. 
    
   I'll see what more I can collect on this. 
","2008-11-05 14:40:28",1,"2012-02-27 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/347043_insight-mccain-5-internal-use-only-pls-do-not-forward-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
363668,"Re: FOR EDIT - GUATEMALA MASSACRE TACTICAL ANALYSIS - 110519
","   blue

   On 5/19/11 9:11 AM, Reginald Thompson wrote:

     -----------------
     Reginald Thompson

     Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741

     OSINT
     Stratfor

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Colby Martin\" <colby.martin@stratfor.com>
     To: analysts@stratfor.com
     Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 9:59:41 AM
     Subject: Re: FOR EDIT - GUATEMALA MASSACRE TACTICAL ANALYSIS - 110519

     By saying the elites represent the state we mean so in terms of
     practicality.  If you look back over the history of Guatemala, the
     landed elites ARE the government/economy.  During the conflict it was
     these elites and the CIA who overthrew the Guzman government after they
     became fearful the United Fruit Company wasn't the last landowners who
     were going to lose their unused land.   Sandra (and any other candidate)
     will always have problems with the elites when they seek the indigenous
     vote because the elites believe (and correctly) that they are the
     country, and without them you may when a popular vote, but you won't
     have any actual power to speak of.  For all intent, they believe
     themselves to be Guatemala, and in their minds without them the country
     is nothing more than a collection of tribes (and they mean that as
     racist as it sounds).

     This attack is significant and \"different\" for a few reasons.  It is the
     worst massacre in Guatemala since 96.  Guatemalans themselves (who live
     with constant violence) are particularly spooked by this event, the
     savagery of it, and the fact that civilians were killed for no other
     reason than they were there.  It is obvious they did not have the
     intelligence the Zetas were after, and more than likely the Zetas
     already knew where Salguero was and what he was doing.  So the question
     is, why kill a bunch of poor farmers who don't know something you
     already do know? 
     It is seen as an attack on both aspects of society, the indigenous
     trabajadores and the landed elite, with the message  being \"we are here
     and if you get in the way you are dead.\"   The use of Mexican Zetas
     instead of Guatemalans (according to a survivor) is also significant
     because of the politics in the region.  When I was there in 2006-2007
     the Colombians were pushing into Guatemala to take over the drug
     corridors. Sure it wasn't just the Colombian links to the Zetas, BLO,
     Chapo, etc? These guys tend to come up from the south to hand over
     drugs, conduct business with Mexicans and Central Americans, etc but
     they don't \"control\" the routes  The story on the Columbians was
     anecdotal.  Have a good friend who is ex D2/G2 who told me that one of
     our buddies had just been killed by Colombians outside of Moralas (where
     some of these workers killed in the massacre were from) and that the
     Colombians were pushing into Guatemala to take over the trade.  He said
     that he thought it was \"funny\" the Colombians thought they could just
     \"take over\" as this was Guatemala and it would always be controled by
     Guatemalans.  His point was that they wouldn't scare easily, and if that
     is what the Colombians thought, they were in for a suprise.  The
     Guatemalans fought back with particular ferocity, because Guatemala was
     going to be run by Guatemalans, and no one else.  The Mexican cartels
     seem to understand this, and although there are Mexican DTOs in the
     country, it is so because they work WITH the Guatemalans who control the
     routes .    Even if this was a one off attack on Otto Salguero and his
     family, the use of Mexicans would still be significant.  In a country
     where having someone killed cost about 7 USD, it was unnecessary unless
     their was a larger point being made. 

     I think the cartels are gearing up for something we long knew was
     coming.  They are possibly no longer willing to share the spoils with
     the Guatemalans, and so they are now willing to push the war into
     Guatemala on a larger scale in order to take the routes Sure that's not
     reading too much into this though? It could just be a case of \"remember
     who we are, don't fuck with us\", not so much a message of rejection to
     the Guatemalans.  It absolutly could be reading too much into it, and
     that is why we should hedge that is a possibility, not a certainty.  But
     considering the issues we speak of in the piece, I do not believe this
     was just a heads up.  This of course will bring in the military but not
     to stop the violence, but to secure the routes for Sandra and her ilk I
     think we may be getting a little ahead of ourselves in saying this. I
     mean yes, in practical terms, when you consider the amount of former and
     current military men involved in drug trafficking (plus the rumors of
     Torres's involvement in this), the military does have the effect of
     securing the routes for these people. However, I don't think this is the
     primary reason, nor should we even consider it that. Remember that, when
     the Zetas kill 27 people in Peten, the Guatemalan gov't faces some real
     pressures from abroad (read: the US) and domestically (from the general
     public and businesses that are freaked out over these killings). In
     practice, yes, the army acts as the biggest cartel, just as in Mexico.
     But they're also a tool to be used by the gov't in an actual CT role
     (albeit somewhat ineffectively). It's more multi-faceted than just
     saying that they'll roll in simply seize the routes. .Yes, I wrote this
     in context to my theories above.  I defintely believe the military will
     have a CT role to play, but the biggest fear is the military becoming
     involved, because no matter their intentions, they would not be able to
     resist the DTO's and the money.  Just as Stick has argued that the
     longer the Mexican Army is involved in the fight against DTO's, the more
     chance their is of their corruption.  The expansion of the military's
     role in Guatemala is something the people are stuggling with.  Yes they
     need protection, but do they trust the military to provide it?    What I
     am hearing from sources is that by drawing the military into any
     conflict is a worst case scenario, and one the Guatemalans themselves
     are terrified of.  It is also precisely what just happened.

     On 5/19/11 7:59 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

       also 'grisly', 'horrific', etc.

       the elite landowners don't 'represent' the state.... in fact, Sandra
       has a real problem on her hands with the landed elite the more she
       tries to go down the populist/indigenous vote grabbing route.  The
       landed elite are a powerful part of the state, but represent is not
       the right word

       i also don't see the basis for this claim \"We expect this to be the
       beginning of a trend which will have dramatic effect upon the
       geopolitics of the country and the greater Central American region. \"

       what is this supposed dramatic effect on the geopolitics of Guatemala
       and CA?  The Zetas have been there for a long time, likely with the
       cooperation of Sandra Torres and her allies. The Zetas also use
       messages like this to intimidate all the time. This analysis treats
       the event as if something radically new is happening.  The mass
       killing is notable for sure, but I really do not see this at all
       having a fundamental impact on Central American geopolitics

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
       To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
       Cc: \"Writers@Stratfor. Com\" <writers@stratfor.com>, \"scott stewart\"
       <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>
       Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 7:55:48 AM
       Subject: Re: FOR EDIT - GUATEMALA MASSACRE TACTICAL ANALYSIS - 110519

       Please take these loaded words out of the analysis as I suggested
       yesterday:
       massacre (it's a mass murder)
       sadistic (this is now a 'personality disorder' and we are not
       shrinks.  Please describe in dry, tactical terms)
       slaughter (we simply don't use words like this)
       On 5/18/11 6:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

         On the night of 14/15 May, 27-29 Guatemalan laborers were
         slaughtered on the farm of a regional landowner near the village of
         San Benito, Peten Department, Guatemala's northernmost province. The
         mass killing appears to be the work of Mexico's Los Zetas cartel,
         due to the combination of the cartel's known presence in the region,
         its control of Chiapas and Campeche states [LINK:
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20101218-mexican-drug-wars-bloodiest-year-date]
         bordering Peten on the north and west, and the grisly display of
         beheaded and dismembered victims. Somewhat out of character, though,
         was that they wrote the narco-message on a wall of a building with
         blood - using a victim's leg as the writing implement - which is not
         common for Los Zetas. However it has become clear over the last two
         years that Los Zetas tend to kill victims in particularly sadistic
         ways when time allows and a message needs to be sent - the result
         being a fearsome reputation. That this event occurred and involved
         Los Zetas, is not what makes the massacre significant. When taken
         together, several unusual aspects of this event present the
         probability that a significant shift is in progress in the dynamics
         of Zeta activities in northern Guatemala.

          

         Peten Department is remote, underdeveloped, and the people are
         strongly independent and distrustful of the Guatemalan government
         (this will be rewritten/reworked by Colby to convey more accurately
         in a single sentence the significance of the culture of the region
         vis-`a-vis outsiders, govt, kaibiles, etc...). It is known that Los
         Zetas over the years have recruited many Guatemalan kaibiles [LINK:
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110209-mexican-cartels-and-guatemalan-politics],
         current or former Guatemalan special forces soldiers, to the point
         that there is a high likelihood that Zetas operating in Guatemala,
         the Yucatan, and southern Mexico are from Guatemala. Based upon
         reported testimony of two of the survivors of the massacre the
         attackers wore military-style fatigues (not uncommon), and that they
         had Mexican accents. The presence of a large group of Mexican Zeta
         enforcers leads to the possibility that this group was sent into
         Peten Department for a specific purpose. In the context of a long
         presence of Guatemalan Zetas in the region, we ask why this change
         in operations came about.

          

         Further, the surviving witnesses indicated that the gunmen were
         demanding to know the whereabouts of the landowner, Otto Salguero,
         and as the peasants had just arrived to work for Salguero the
         previous week they would not have possessed any useful knowledge to
         extract - as opposed to that which long-time employees likely would
         possess. While interrogating the peasants regarding the whereabouts
         of Salguero - who was not on the property at the time - the peasants
         were killed, then methodically decapitated. But there are large
         anomalies evident in the event.

          

         According to reports from Latin American media, the Zeta force was
         camped in a what was described as a redoubt nearby for several days
         - most likely in surveillance of Salguero's residence and
         activities, judging by the proximity of their camp to the target's
         house - and as such probably knew that their apparent target was not
         on the property when they attacked. Additionally it was reported
         that, at the time the attack began, Salguero was attending the
         funeral of his niece and her father-in-law - who had been killed the
         previous day by Zetas when the pair were delivering ransom money for
         another family member. The Zetas killed and beheaded the people they
         were interrogating, presumably because the peasants could offer no
         information, but the Zetas likely knew where their target was - and
         why. The conflicting information then points to the potential that
         Los Zetas slaughtered the peasants knowing they were not relevant to
         whatever activities Salguero was engaged in that made him a Zeta
         target in the first place. There are indications in the media that
         Salguero's activities have been counter to Zeta interests for
         several years, however as there is little clarity yet in this aspect
         of the chain of events, STRATFOR is in the process of corroborating
         rumored connections before giving them credence in analysis on this
         situation.

          

         Regarding the contradiction of reported information and historical
         evidence, another element in play is the leaving of witnesses: Los
         Zetas typically does not do so unless the group wishes to deliver a
         pointed message, though there have been occasions when a victim has
         \"played dead\" until the Zetas depart, as occurred at the massacre of
         the Central American migrants in San Fernando last year [LINK:
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100826_revelations_72_migrants_deaths].
         As reported in Guatemalan news on the event, while one survivor did
         so by \"playing dead\" after he was wounded, a woman was specifically
         and pointedly spared. She apparently was told by the Zeta leader
         that she would be spared because of her daughters, who were with her
         and reportedly whom she had attempted to protect by covering them
         with her body. As it happens the woman is pregnant as well, but that
         may not have played into the decision to allow her to live. What is
         not known at this point about the Zetas sparing her and her
         children, is what message she may have been specifically instructed
         to convey after the event came to light.

          

         There remains a great deal of uncertain or uncorroborated
         information surrounding the massacre in Peten. STRATFOR is
         monitoring the developments closely, for there are many questions to
         be answered. It is clear though, from the known facts and the
         identified anomalies, that a profound message was being sent. Based
         upon the available information STRATFOR's initial take is that the
         message was the violence, that because Mexicans were used rather
         than Guatemalans, Los Zetas are there, no one is safe - from the
         average peasant to the elite landowners (who represent the state).
         The more gruesome the scene created by Los Zetas, the more it will
         remind the Guatemalan people of the horrific acts of the death
         squads during that country's 36 year civil war - and the death
         squads were kaibiles, who now are aligned with Los Zetas. The
         connection will have been made. The primal fear this event instilled
         in Guatemalans has been evidenced by STRATFOR's sources in that
         country flatly refusing to discuss or even acknowledge it as having
         happened. We expect this to be the beginning of a trend which will
         have dramatic effect upon the geopolitics of the country and the
         greater Central American region. The second part of this discussion,
         next week, will examine those wider implications which we perceive
         to have been triggered by the massacre at San Benito.

          

          

          

          

         Victoria Allen
         Tactical Analyst (Mexico)
         Strategic Forecasting
         512-279-9475
         victoria.allen@stratfor.com
         \"There is nothing more necessary than good intelligence to frustrate
         a designing enemy, & nothing requires greater pains to
         obtain.\" -- George Washington

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com
","2011-05-19 16:40:03",1,"2012-03-01 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/363668_re-for-edit-guatemala-massacre-tactical-analysis-110519-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
363803,"Security Weekly : The Bin Laden Operation: Tapping Human Intelligence
","    Stratfor logo                                                             
   The Bin Laden Operation: Tapping Human Intelligence                        
                                                                              
    May 26, 2011                                                              
                                                                              
    Readers Comment on STRATFOR Reports                                       
                                                                              
    By Fred Burton                                                            
                                                                              
    Since May 2, when U.S. special operations forces crossed the              
    Afghan-Pakistani border and killed Osama bin Laden, international media   
    have covered the raid from virtually every angle. The United States and   
    Pakistan have also squared off over the U.S. violation of Pakistan's      
    sovereign territory and [IMG] Pakistan's possible complicity in hiding    
    the al Qaeda leader. All this surface-level discussion, however, largely  
    ignores almost 10 years of intelligence development in the hunt for bin   
    Laden.                                                                    
                                                                              
    While the cross-border nighttime raid deep into Pakistan was a daring     
    and daunting operation, the work to find the target - one person out of   
    180 million in a country full of insurgent groups and a population        
    hostile to American activities on its soil - was a far greater            
    challenge. For the other side, the challenge of hiding the world's most   
    wanted man from the world's most funded intelligence apparatus created a  
    clandestine shell game that probably involved current or former           
    Pakistani intelligence officers as well as competing intelligence         
    services. The details of this struggle will likely remain classified for  
    decades.                                                                  
                                                                              
    Examining the hunt for bin Laden is also difficult, mainly because of     
    the sensitivity of the mission and the possibility that some of the       
    public information now available could be disinformation intended to      
    disguise intelligence sources and methods. Successful operations can      
    often compromise human sources and new intelligence technologies that     
    have taken years to develop. Because of this, it is not uncommon for      
    intelligence services to try to create a wilderness of mirrors to         
    protect sources and methods. But using open-source reporting and human    
    intelligence from STRATFOR's own sources, we can assemble enough          
    information to draw some conclusions about this complex intelligence      
    effort and raise some key questions.                                      
                                                                              
     The Challenge                                                            
                                                                              
    Following the 9/11 attacks, finding and killing bin Laden became the      
    primary mission of the U.S. intelligence community, particularly the      
    CIA. This mission was clearly laid out in a presidential \"finding,\" or    
    directive, signed on Sept. 17, 2001, by then-U.S. President George W.     
    Bush. By 2005 it became clear to STRATFOR that bin Laden was deep inside  
    Pakistan. Although the Pakistani government was ostensibly a U.S. ally,   
    it was known that there were elements within it sympathetic to al Qaeda   
    and bin Laden. In order to find bin Laden, U.S. intelligence would have   
    to work with - and against - Pakistani intelligence services.             
                                                                              
    Finding bin Laden in a hostile intelligence environment while friends     
    and sympathizers were protecting him represented a monumental             
    intelligence challenge for the United States. With bin Laden and his      
    confederates extremely conscious of U.S technical intelligence            
    abilities, the search quickly became a human-intelligence challenge.      
    While STRATFOR believes bin Laden had become tactically irrelevant since  
    9/11, he remained symbolically important and a focal point for the U.S.   
    intelligence effort. And while it appears that the United States has      
    improved its intelligence capabilities and passed an important test,      
    much remains undone. Today, the public information surrounding the case   
    illuminates the capabilities that will be used to find other high-value   
    targets as the U.S. effort continues.                                     
                                                                              
    The official story on the intelligence that led to bin Laden's            
    Abbottabad compound has been widely reported, leaked from current and     
    former U.S. officials. It focuses on a man with the cover name Abu Ahmed  
    al-Kuwaiti, a Pakistani Pashtun born in Kuwait who became bin Laden's     
    most trusted courier. With fluency in Pashto and Arabic, according to     
    media reports, al-Kuwaiti would be invaluable to al Qaeda, and in order   
    to purchase bin Laden's property and run errands he would also need to    
    be fluent in Urdu. His position as bin Laden's most trusted courier made  
    him a key link in disrupting the organization. While this man supposedly  
    led the United States to bin Laden, it took a decade of revamping U.S.    
    intelligence capabilities and a great deal of hard work (and maybe even   
    a lucky break) to actually find him.                                      
                                                                              
    The first step for U.S. intelligence services after Bush's directive was  
    focusing their efforts on bin Laden and the al Qaeda leadership.          
    Intelligence collection against al Qaeda was under way before 9/11, but   
    after the attacks it became the No. 1 priority. Due to a lack of human    
    intelligence in the region and allies for an invasion of Afghanistan,     
    the CIA revived connections with anti-Taliban forces in Afghanistan and   
    with Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) directorate in order    
    to oust the Taliban government and accrue intelligence for use in         
    disrupting al Qaeda. The connections were built in the 1980s as the CIA   
    famously operated through the ISI to fund militant groups in Afghanistan  
    fighting the Soviet military. Most of these links were lost when the      
    Soviets withdrew from the Southwest Asian state and the CIA nominally     
    declared victory. Pakistan, left with Afghanistan and these militant      
    groups, developed a working relationship with the Taliban and others for  
    its own interests. A coterie of ISI officers was embedded with different  
    militant groups, and some of them became jihadist sympathizers.           
                                                                              
    U.S. intelligence budgets were severely cut in the 1990s in light of the  
    \"peace dividend\" following the fall of the Soviet Union, as some U.S.     
    leaders argued there was no one left to fight. Intelligence collection    
    was a dirty, ambiguous and dangerous game that U.S. politicians were not  
    prepared to stomach. John Deutch, the director of the CIA from 1995 to    
    1996, gutted the CIA's sources on what was known as the \"Torricelli       
    Principle\" (named after then-Rep. Robert Torricelli), which called for    
    the removal of any unsavory characters from the payroll. This meant       
    losing sources in the exact kind of organizations U.S. intelligence       
    would want to infiltrate, including militants in Southwest Asia.          
                                                                              
    The CIA began to revive its contacts in the region after the 1998 U.S.    
    Embassy bombings in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. While    
    the U.S. intelligence community was looking for bin Laden at this time,   
    he was not a high priority, and U.S. human-intelligence capabilities in   
    the region were limited. The United States has always had trouble with    
    human intelligence - having people sitting at computers is less of a      
    security risk than having daring undercover operatives running around in  
    the field - and by the end of the 1990s it was relying on technological   
    platforms for intelligence more than ever.                                
                                                                              
    The United States was in this state on Sept. 12, 2001, when it began to   
    ramp up its intelligence operations, and al Qaeda was aware of this. Bin  
    Laden knew that if he could stay away from electronic communications,     
    and generally out of sight, he would be much harder to track. After       
    invading Afghanistan and working with the ISI in Pakistan, the United     
    States had a large number of detainees who it hoped would have            
    information to breach bin Laden's operational security. From some mix of  
    detainees caught in operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan (particularly  
    with the help of the ISI), including Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and Abu Farj  
    al-Libi, came information leading to an important bin Laden courier       
    known by various names, including Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti. (His actual       
    identity is still unconfirmed, though his real name may be Sheikh Abu     
    Ahmed.)                                                                   
                                                                              
    The efficacy of enhanced interrogation and torture techniques is          
    constantly debated - they may have helped clarify or obfuscate the        
    courier's identity (some reports say Mohammed tried to lead               
    investigators away from him). What is clear is that U.S. intelligence     
    lacked both a sophisticated and nuanced understanding of al Qaeda and,    
    most important, human sources with access to that information. With the   
    United States not knowing what al Qaeda was capable of, the fear of a     
    follow-on attack to 9/11 loomed large.                                    
                                                                              
    Anonymous U.S. intelligence officials told Reuters the breakthrough came  
    when a man named Hassan Ghul was captured in Iraq in 2004 by Kurdish      
    forces and turned over to the United States. Little is known about        
    Ghul's identity except that he is believed to have worked with Abu Musab  
    al-Zarqawi and to have given interrogators information about a man named  
    \"al-Kuwaiti\" who was a courier between al-Zarqawi and al Qaeda            
    operational commanders in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Ghul was then given   
    over to the Pakistani security services; he is believed to have been      
    released in 2007 and to now be fighting somewhere in the region.          
                                                                              
    While U.S. intelligence services got confirmation of al-Kuwaiti's role    
    from al-Libi, they could not find the courier. It is unknown if they      
    gave any of this information to the Pakistanis or asked for their help.   
    According to leaks from U.S. officials to AP, the Pakistanis provided     
    the National Security Agency (NSA), the main U.S. communications          
    interception agency, with information that allowed it to monitor a SIM    
    card from a cellphone that had frequently called Saudi Arabia. In 2010,   
    the NSA intercepted a call made by al-Kuwaiti and began tracking him in   
    Pakistan. Another U.S. official told CNN that the operational security    
    exercised by al-Kuwaiti and his brother made them difficult to trail,     
    but \"an elaborate surveillance effort\" was organized to track them to     
    the Abbottabad compound.                                                  
                                                                              
    From then on, the NSA monitored all of the cellphones used by the         
    couriers and their family members, though they were often turned off and  
    had batteries removed when the phones' users went to the Abbottabad       
    compound or to other important meetings. The compound was monitored by    
    satellites and RQ-170 Sentinels, stealth versions of unmanned aerial      
    vehicles (UAVs), which were reportedly flown over the compound.           
    According to The Wall Street Journal, the National                        
    Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) even built a replica of the          
    compound for CIA Director Leon Panetta and other officials. The NGA is    
    the premier U.S. satellite observation agency, which could have watched   
    the goings-on at the compound and even spotted bin Laden, though it       
    would have been difficult to confirm his identity.                        
                                                                              
    Some of these leaks could be disingenuous in order to lead the public     
    and adversary intelligence agencies away from highly classified sources   
    and methods. But they do reflect long-believed assessments of the U.S.    
    intelligence community regarding its advanced capability in               
    technology-based intelligence gathering as well as the challenges it      
    faces in human-intelligence collection.                                   
                                                                              
     The Utility of Liaison Relationships                                     
                                                                              
    Historically, U.S. intelligence officers have been white males, though    
    the CIA has more recently begun hiring more minorities, including those   
    from various ethnic and linguistic groups important to its mission (or    
    at least those who can pass the polygraph and full-field background       
    investigation, a substantial barrier). Even when intelligence officers    
    look the part in the countries in which they operate and have a native    
    understanding of the cultures and languages, they need sources within     
    the organizations they are trying to penetrate. It is these sources,      
    recruited by intelligence officers and without official or secret         
    status, who are the \"agents\" providing the information needed back at     
    headquarters. The less an intelligence officer appears like a local the   
    more difficult it is to meet with and develop these agents, which has     
    led the United States to frequently depend on liaison services - local    
    intelligence entities - to collect information.                           
                                                                              
    Many intelligence services around the world were established with         
    American support or funding for just this purpose. The most dependent     
    liaison services essentially function as sources, acquiring information   
    at the local CIA station's request. They are often made up of             
    long-serving officers in the local country's military, police or          
    intelligence services, with a nuanced understanding of local issues and   
    the ability to maintain a network of sources. With independent            
    intelligence services, such as Israel's Mossad, there has been roughly    
    an equal exchange of intelligence, where Israeli sources may recruit a    
    human source valuable to the United States and the CIA may have           
    satellite imagery or communications intercepts valuable to the Israelis.  
                                                                              
    Of course, this is not a simple game. It involves sophisticated players   
    trying to collect intelligence while deceiving one another about their    
    intentions and plans - and many times trying to muddy the water a little  
    to hide the identity of their sources from the liaison service. Even the  
    closest intelligence relationships, such as that between the CIA and the  
    British Secret Intelligence Service, have been disrupted by moles like    
    Kim Philby, a longtime Soviet plant who handled the liaison work between  
    the two agencies.                                                         
                                                                              
    Since most U.S. intelligence officers serve on rotations of only one to   
    three years - out of concern they will \"go native\" or to allow them to    
    return to the comfort of home - it becomes even more challenging to       
    develop long-term human-intelligence sources. While intelligence          
    officers will pass their sources off to their replacements, the liaison   
    service becomes even more valuable in being able to sustain source        
    relationships, which can take years to build. Liaison relationships,      
    then, become a way to efficiently use and extend U.S. intelligence        
    resources, which, unlike such services in most countries, have global     
    requirements. The United States may be the world's superpower, but it is  
    impossible for it to maintain sources everywhere.                         
                                                                              
     Liaison and Unilateral Operations in the Hunt for Bin Laden              
                                                                              
    In recent years, U.S. intelligence has worked with Pakistan's ISI most    
    notably in raids throughout Pakistan against senior al Qaeda operatives   
    like Abu Zubaydah, Ramzi bin al-Shibh, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and Abu     
    Farj al-Libi. We can also presume that much of the information used by    
    the United States for UAV strikes comes through sources in Pakistani      
    intelligence as well as those on the Afghan side of the border. Another   
    example of such cooperation, also to find bin Laden, is the CIA's work    
    with the Jordanian General Intelligence Department, an effort that went   
    awry in the Khost suicide attack. Such is the risk with liaison           
    relationships - to what extent can one intelligence officer trust         
    another's sources and motives? Nevertheless, these liaison networks were  
    the best the United States had available, and huge amounts of resources   
    were put into developing intelligence through them in looking for major   
    jihadists, including bin Laden.                                           
                                                                              
    The United States is particularly concerned about Pakistan's              
    intelligence services and the possibility that some of their officers     
    could be compromised by, or at least sympathetic to, jihadists. Given     
    the relationships with jihadists maintained by former ISI officers such   
    as Khalid Khawaja and Sultan Amir Tarar (known as Colonel Imam), who      
    were both held hostage and killed by Pakistani militants, and most        
    famously former ISI Director Hamid Gul, there is cause for concern.       
    These three are the most famous former ISI officers with links to         
    jihadists, but because they were (or are) long retired from the ISI and   
    their notoriety makes them easy to track to jihadists, they have little   
    influence on either group. But the reality is that there are current ISI  
    and military officers sympathizing or working with important jihadist     
    groups. Indeed, it was liaison work by the CIA and Saudi Arabia that      
    helped develop strong connections with Arab and Afghan militants, some    
    of whom would go on to become members of al Qaeda and the Taliban. The    
    ISI was responsible for distributing U.S.- and Saudi-supplied weapons to  
    various Afghan militant groups to fight the Russians in the 1980s, and    
    it controlled contact with these groups. If some of those contacts        
    remain, jihadists could be using members of the ISI rather than the       
    other way around.                                                         
                                                                              
    Due to concerns like these, according to official statements and leaked   
    information, U.S. intelligence officers never told their Pakistani        
    liaison counterparts about the forthcoming bin Laden raid. It appears     
    the CIA developed a unilateral capability to operate within Pakistan,     
    demonstrated by the Raymond Davis shooting in January as well as the bin  
    Laden raid. Davis was a contractor providing security for U.S.            
    intelligence officers in Pakistan when he killed two reportedly armed     
    men in Lahore, and his case brought the CIA-ISI conflict out in the       
    open. Requests by Pakistani officials to remove more than 300 similar     
    individuals from the country show that there are a large number of U.S.   
    intelligence operatives in Pakistan. Other aspects of this unilateral     
    U.S. effort were the tracking of bin Laden, further confirmation of his   
    identity and the safe house the CIA maintained in Abbottabad for months   
    to monitor the compound.                                                  
                                                                              
     The CIA and the ISI                                                      
                                                                              
    Even with the liaison relationships in Pakistan, which involved meetings  
    between the CIA station chief in Islamabad and senior members of the      
    ISI, the CIA ran unilateral operations on the ground. Liaison services    
    cannot be used to recruit sources within the host government; this must   
    be done unilaterally. This is where direct competition between            
    intelligence services comes into play. In Pakistan, this competition may  
    involve different organizations such as Pakistan's Intelligence Bureau    
    or Federal Investigation Agency, both of which have counterintelligence   
    functions, or separate departments within the ISI, where one department   
    is assigned to liaison while others handle counterintelligence or work    
    with militant groups. Counterintelligence officers may want to disrupt    
    intelligence operations that involve collecting information on the        
    host-country military, or they may simply want to monitor the foreign     
    intelligence service's efforts to recruit jihadists. They can also feed   
    disinformation to the operatives. This competition is known to all        
    players and is not out of the ordinary.                                   
                                                                              
    But the U.S. intelligence community is wondering if this ordinary         
    competition was taken to another level - if the ISI, or elements of it,   
    were actually protecting bin Laden. The people helping bin Laden and      
    other al Qaeda operatives and contacts in Abbottabad were the same        
    people the CIA was competing against. Were they simply jihadists or a     
    more resourceful and capable state intelligence agency? If the ISI as an  
    institution knew about bin Laden's location, it would mean it outwitted   
    the CIA for nearly a decade in hiding his whereabouts. It would also      
    mean that no ISI officers who knew his location were turned by U.S.       
    intelligence, that no communications were intercepted and that no leaks   
    reached the media.                                                        
                                                                              
    On the other hand, if someone within the ISI was protecting bin Laden     
    and keeping it from the rest of the organization, it would mean the ISI   
    was beaten internally and the CIA eventually caught up by developing its  
    own sources and was able to find bin Laden on its own. As we point out    
    above, the official story on the bin Laden intelligence effort may be     
    disinformation to protect sources and methods. Still, this seems to be a  
    more plausible scenario. American and Pakistani sources have told         
    STRATFOR that there are likely jihadist sympathizers within the ISI who   
    helped bin Laden or his supporters. Given that Pakistan is fighting its   
    own war with al Qaeda-allied groups like Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, the   
    country's leadership in Islamabad has no interest in protecting them.     
    Furthermore, finding an individual anywhere, especially in a foreign      
    country with multiple insurgencies under way, is an extremely difficult   
    intelligence challenge.                                                   
                                                                              
    Assuming the official story is mostly true, the bin Laden raid            
    demonstrates that U.S. intelligence has come full circle since the end    
    of the Cold War. It was able to successfully collect and analyze          
    intelligence of all types and develop and deploy on-the-ground            
    capabilities it had been lacking to find an individual who was hiding     
    and probably protected. It was able to quickly work with special          
    operations forces under CIA command to carry out an elaborate operation   
    to capture or kill him, a capability honed by the U.S. Joint Special      
    Operations Command (JSOC) in the development of its own capture-and-kill  
    capabilities in Iraq and Afghanistan. The CIA is responsible for          
    missions in Pakistan, where, like the JSOC, it has demonstrated an        
    efficient and devastating capability to task UAV strikes and conduct      
    cross-border raids. The bin Laden raid was the public proof of concept    
    that the United States could collect intelligence and reach far into      
    hostile territory to capture or kill its targets.                         
                                                                              
    It is unclear exactly how the U.S. intelligence community has been able   
    to develop these capabilities, beyond the huge post-9/11 influx of money  
    and personnel (simply throwing resources at a problem is never a          
    complete solution). The United States faced Sept. 11, 2001, without       
    strategic warning of the attacks inspired by bin Laden, and then it       
    faced a tactical threat it was unprepared to fight. Whatever the new and  
    improved human-intelligence capabilities may be, they are no doubt some   
    function of the experience gained by operatives in a concerted, global    
    campaign against jihadists. Human intelligence is probably still the      
    biggest U.S. weakness, but given the evidence of unilateral operations    
    in Pakistan, it is not the weakness it used to be.                        
                                                                              
     The Intelligence Battle Between the U.S. and Pakistan                    
                                                                              
    The [IMG] competition and cooperation among various intelligence          
    agencies did not end with the death of Osama bin Laden. Publicity         
    surrounding the operation has led to calls in Pakistan to eject any and   
    all American interests in the country. In the past few years, Pakistan    
    has made it difficult for many Americans to get visas, especially those   
    with official status that may be cover for intelligence operations.       
    Raymond Davis was one of these people. Involved in protecting             
    intelligence officers who were conducting human-intelligence missions,    
    he would have been tasked not only with protecting them from physical     
    threats from jihadists but also with helping ensure they were not under   
    the surveillance of a hostile intelligence agency.                        
                                                                              
    Pakistan has only ratcheted up these barriers since the bin Laden raid.   
    The Interior Ministry announced May 19 that it would ban travel by        
    foreign diplomats to cities other than those where they are stationed     
    without permission from Pakistani authorities. The News, a Pakistani      
    daily, reported May 20 that Interior Minister Rehman Malik chaired a      
    meeting with provincial authorities on regulating travel by foreigners,   
    approving their entry into the country and monitoring unregistered        
    mobile phones. While some of these efforts are intended to deal with      
    jihadists disguised within large groups of Afghan nationals, they also    
    place barriers on foreign intelligence officers in the country. While     
    non-official cover is becoming more common for CIA officers overseas,     
    many are still traveling on various diplomatic documents and thus would   
    require these approvals. The presence of intelligence officers on the     
    ground for the bin Laden raid shows there are workarounds for such        
    barriers that will be used when the mission is important enough. In       
    fact, according to STRATFOR sources, the CIA has for years been           
    operating in Pakistan under what are known as *Moscow rules* - the        
    strictest tradecraft for operating behind enemy lines - with clandestine  
    units developing human sources and searching for al Qaeda and other       
    militant leaders.                                                         
                                                                              
    And this dynamic will only continue. Pakistani Foreign Secretary Salman   
    Bashir told The Wall Street Journal on May 6 that another operation like  
    the bin Laden raid would have \"terrible consequences,\" while U.S.         
    President Barack Obama told BBC on May 22 that he would authorize         
    similar strikes in the future if they were called for. Pakistan, as any   
    sovereign country would, is trying to protect its territory, while the    
    United States will continue to search for high-value targets who are      
    hiding there. The bin Laden operation only brought this clandestine       
    competition to the public eye.                                            
                                                                              
    Bin Laden is dead, but many other individuals on the U.S. high-value      
    target list remain at large. With the bold execution and ultimate         
    success of the Abbottabad raid now public, the overarching American       
    operational concept for hunting high-value targets has been demonstrated  
    and the immense resources that were focused on bin Laden are now freed    
    up. While the United States still faces intelligence challenges, those    
    most wanted by the Americans can no longer take comfort in the fact that  
    bin Laden is eluding his hunters or that the Americans are expending any  
    more of their effort looking for him.                                     
                                                                              
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    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
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    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
","2011-05-26 11:01:12",1,"2012-03-01 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/363803_security-weekly-the-bin-laden-operation-tapping-human.html","noreply@stratfor.com","mailto:stratforaustin@stratfor.com","allstratfor@stratfor.com",""
364732,"Re: Wikileaks
","Stand down, got the lads on culling the materials.

------Original Message------
From: Mike Parks
To: 'Fred Burton'
Subject: RE: Wikileaks
Sent: Jul 26, 2010 1:50 PM

Maybe - but it would take me a long time(I emphasize \"me\" - more technically
savvy people might do better. There are over 90K pieces in the cache.

-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Monday, July 26, 2010 11:24 AM
To: Mike Parks
Subject: Re: Wikileaks

can you cull 'em out?

Mike Parks wrote:
> Bunch of DSS surveillance reports (Ambo's detail) in the wikileaks cache.
","2010-07-26 20:52:39",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/364732_re-wikileaks-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","longbow99@earthlink.net",""
364817,"Fw: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks
","     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2010 18:52:03 +0000
   To: Colby Martin<colby.martin@stratfor.com>; CT AOR<ct@stratfor.com>;
   George Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: burton@stratfor.com
   Subject: Re: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks
   We probably asked the ASIS to monitor Wiki coms and email, after the
   soldier from Potomac was nabbed. So, its reasonable to assume we probably
   already know who has done it.

   The delay could be figuring out how to declassify and use the Aussie intel
   on Wiki.

   Wiki holding on to other docs is to protect their sources.

   The owner is a peacenik. He needs his head dunked in a full toilet bowl at
   Gitmo.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Colby Martin <colby.martin@stratfor.com>
   Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2010 13:47:38 -0500 (CDT)
   To: <burton@stratfor.com>; CT AOR<ct@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks

 Sorry if this has been seen but it is a good article and goes with what we are
                                    saying.

                       WikiLeaks' Afghan Documents and Me

  http://motherjones.com/mojo/2010/07/wikileaks-afghan-documents-and-me-source

   a** By Adam Weinstein

   | Sun Jul. 25, 2010 10:28 PM PDT

   a** Flickr/ Jabber1990 (Creative Commons)

   [For more on the WikiLeaks Afghan document dump, read posts by Kevin Drum
   here and senior editor Dave Gilson here.]

   Here's a cliche for you: A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. And
   here's a fact: A little knowledge is precisely what Julian Assange and his
   WikiLeaks cohorts have given us in the \"Afghan War Diary.\" The intimation
   by Assange (and the media outlets he cherry-picked to preview the data) is
   that these are the Pentagon Papers of the Afghan war. Certainly there are
   a few eyebrow-raising details in the bunch, as Mark Mazzetti, Chris
   Chivers & Co. at the New York Times point out. But in truth, there's not
   much there. I know, because I've seen many of these reports beforea**at
   least, thousands of similar ones from Iraq, when I was a contractor there
   last year.

   I haven't been through everything yet, but most of what you see on
   WikiLeaks are military SIGACTS (significant activity reports). These are
   theoretically accessible by anyone in Iraq, Afghanistan, or the Tampa,
   Florida-based US Central Commanda**soldiers and contractorsa**who have
   access to the military's most basic intranet for sensitive data, the
   Secret Internet Protocol Router Network (SIPRNet). Literally thousands of
   people in hundreds of locations could read them, and any one of them could
   be the source for WikiLeaks' data. I regularly went through the daily
   SIGACT reports in Iraq, not because my job required it, but because my
   colleagues and I were curious. We heard mortars or car bombs explode in
   the distance at night, and we couldn't help but wonder: What the hell was
   that? Every time a US unit engaged the enemy, encountered munitions, saw
   or heard something go boom, caught a criminal, or located a weapons cache,
   a report was filed. So, each morning when I entered my office on Camp
   Victory, I fired up my SIPR terminal and checked the SIGACTS for
   interesting stuff. 

   The first time I did it, my pupils dilated. A vein in my throat warmed.
   The reporter in me did backflips. I was about to breathe pure oxygen.

   By day three or four, I was bored to tears. Here's what I learned:

   Some SIGACTS are more detailed than others; most are mundane. Only a few
   in WikiLeaks' bunch fall in the former category. For example, an October
   2009 missive provides harrowing details of a battle in which Combat
   Outpost Keating was overrun by Taliban fighters; Chivers at the NYT did an
   amazing job of reconstructing that terrible massacre, in which eight US
   soldiers died and 23 were wounded. But most SIGACTS are much more
   routine-sounding; for instance, the Battle of Wanat on July 13, 2008, was
   actually the deadliest battle of the war for US forces so far, and a
   source of major controversy. Yet its secret report sounds dull by
   comparison.

   Probably the most significant thing about the SIGACTS is that they're
   counted and graphed by the military as a metric of how we're doing, and
   the obvious thing about the Afghan War Diary is that there are tons more
   entries for recent months in 2008 and 2009 than there were in previous
   months through the war. That's also a function of numbers of US and
   coalition forces; just as crime goes up when you put more cops on the
   street, SIGACTS probably should go up when you put more boots on the
   ground. And bear in mind, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison; more
   SIGACTS may mean more good things, like arrests and caches found, rather
   than civilian and coalition casualties. Even so, the most recent numbers
   are pretty sobering.

   There are two categories of data in the WikiLeaks files that could be
   really interestinga**and could cause some serious repercussions. One is
   the military's FRAGOs, fragmentary orders. These are strategic directives
   from headquarter to junior military commands in the field, and they cover
   pretty much everythinga**from orders on how to deal with detainees to an
   on-base visit by the wrestling stars of WWE. WikiLeaks provides a log of
   these FRAGOs, but doesn't have the orders themselves. It's a great
   bibliographic resource for reporters with time on their hands to file a
   FOIA request for the actual orders. But in the meantime, it's not much by
   itself.

   The other interesting data are notes from what the military calls
   KLEsa**key leader engagements. Military officers, as well as officials
   from State, USAID, and other agencies regularly meet with important
   players in a war zone to get their take on the situation. Often they're
   dull and tell the interviewers little they didn't already know; sometimes,
   though, they give insight to \"atmospherics\"a**how Afghan locals feel about
   US forces or the Taliban. Many of these key leaders take their lives into
   their hands; from my experience in Iraq, I know that numerous Shiites,
   Sunnis and Kurds with high standing among their tribesa**and among our
   enemiesa**took time to brief US officials, often to dish dirt on crooked
   or violent elements in their vicinity. If they were ever outed as
   collaborators with American forces, they'd be as good as dead. And
   Wikileaks has 16 pages of secret military KLEs with individuals and groups
   in Afghanistan, spanning six years. No names are redacted. In this case,
   what retired general James Jones, the White House national security
   adviser, said yesterday is correct: WL is putting some lives at serious
   risk with that particular data dump.

   I'll keep running through to see if there's anything else of importance.
   But most of this information is tactical nuts and bolts, devoid of
   context, and largely useless for a war narrative; what would be far more
   valuable than this stuff is the strategic/political data: military info
   that's TOP SECRET or above, which I haven't seen yet; or stuff from the
   State Department or provincial reconstruction teams (PRTs). (One
   interesting item: A November 2006 report on the WL site suggests that at
   least one PRTa**a team of anthropologists, political and developmental
   specialists, and soldiers sent out to assist local Afghans in rebuilding
   their nationa**engaged in propaganda, feeding broadcast information to
   local radio stations. It's not exactly damning, but it doesn't quite jibe
   with the PRTs' benevolent mission statement, either.)

   By and large, like most of the stunts pulled by Assange, this one's long
   on heat and short on light, nothing you didn't already know if you were
   paying attention to our wars. (And to the extent that you weren't, well, I
   guess the leak is on the whole a good thing.) For the best color
   commentary on this document dump, check out the very succinct analysis of
   Abu Muqawama at the Center for a New American Security. He pretty much
   says it all.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: \"CT AOR\" <ct@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, July 26, 2010 1:23:16 PM
   Subject: Re: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks

   Stick and I could find the suspect in 3 days.

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
   Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2010 12:47:07
   To: CT AOR<ct@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks

   The first is an excerpt from an intelligence summary probably sent to
   thousands; the second appears to be a DIA report, but could also be a
   retransmitted CIA document possibly through DIA reports, based on the
   the way the names are bracketed w/the ((.  The brackets around the names
   goes back to the old days, when this denoted that the names should be
   cataloged on index cards by the ladies back home.

   Matthew Powers wrote
   > Attached are the only two reports that I have been able to find so far
   > that deal with Gul.  These are both classified secret.  I am still
   > trying to figure out who would have produced them, but wanted to post
   > them in case someone here would know.
   >
   > MAGNETIC IED THREAT IN KABUL
   > Organization(s) Involved: OPPOSING MILITANT FORCES
   > 31 DEC 2006, CJTF-76 INTSUM, NIS
   > 20061231-RC-C G2 -N/I S
   > IED THREAT WARN - RC-C, KABUL, SIED & RCIED (MAGNETIC MINES), 30 DEC - 1
   > JAN  07
   > Importance: High
   > Classification: NATO/ISAF SECRET
   > FYI.  Extract from:
   > CJTF-76 Air Component Coordination Element (ACCE)
   > CJTF-76 Air Support Operations Center (ASOC)
   > Bagram Airfield, Afghanistan
   > INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
   > 30 Dec 06
   > (290300Z Dec 06 - 300259Z Dec 06)
   > Country-Wide Threats:
   > (N/I R) On approximately 17 December 2006, following a meeting between
   > senior members of the TALIBAN leadership in NOWSHAHRA, Pakistan
   > (GEOCOORD NOT AVAILABLE), which included General Hamid GUL, the former
   > Chief of Inter-Services Intelligence  (ISI) Directorate of Pakistan.
   > During this meeting GUL claimed he dispatched three unidentified
   > individuals to KABUL City (GEOCOORD: 42S WD 15172 19937) to carry out
   > IED attacks during the Eid celebration.  GUL instructed two of the
   > individuals to plant IEDs along the roads frequently utilized by
   > Government of Afghanistan (GOA) and ISAF vehicles.  The third individual
   > is to carry out a suicide attack utilizing a suicide vest against GOA or
   > ISAF entities.  Reportedly GULs final comment to the three
   > individuals was make the snow warm in KABUL, basically telling them to
   > set KABUL aflame.
   > (N/I R) The three individuals traveled from SOROBI (GEOCOORD: 42S WD
   > 6817430407), SOROBI District KABUL Province to their current location in
   > the MUSAYI District, KABUL Province, (GEOCOORD NOT AVAILABLE) NFI.  The
   > two individuals tasked with planting the IEDs will employ two types of
   > IEDs, these being remotely detonated IEDs and a supposedly new Chinese
   > made magnetic mine.  The three individuals tasked with conducting these
   > attacks will be assisted in entering KABUL City by a group of five
   > unidentified individuals, described as a KABUL Province criminal gang
   > that is associated with General AMANULLAH GOUZAR, the current KABUL City
   > Chief of Police.
   > (N/I R) The Chinese made magnetic mines were described as a metal plate
   > with a magnet attached to one side and the explosives to the other.  The
   > mines are to be planted on roads frequently used by ISAF and GOA forces
   > throughout KABUL, utilizing the snow as camouflage.  Reportedly, once a
   > vehicle drives over the camouflaged plated mine the magnetic side will
   > attach itself to the passing vehicle.  As the vehicle departs the area
   > one of the unidentified individuals acting as a spotter will contact the
   > second individual, who will be located on higher ground overlooking the
   > road, via a cellular phone notifying him the package was picked up.  In
   > addition, the spotter will also relay the vehicle description to include
   > its license plate number or vehicle description.  Once the second
   > individual receives this information and observes the vehicle he will
   > then remotely detonate the mine.  GUL reportedly has received
   > approximately 50 of these mines in order for them to carry out their
   > operation.
   >
   >
   >
   >
   >
   >
   > INS MEET TO PLAN AN SVBIED ATTACK
   > Organization(s) Involved: FOREIGN FIGHTERS,INTER-SERVICES INTELLIGENCE
   > DIRECTORATE,OPPOSING MILITANT FORCES
   > 14 JAN 2009, TF CASTLE INTSUM 4311, NSI
   >
   > (SECRET//REL TO USA, ISAF, NATO) AAF MOVE BLUE JINGLE TRUCK VBIED TO
   > SAROBI DISTRICT
   >
   > ON 5 JANUARY 2009, FROM 2100 TO 2300 HOURS LOCAL TIME, AAF COMMANDERS
   > ((NAZIR)), ((HALLIMULLAH)), ((MALANG)) BASED IN WANA, SOUTH WAZIRISTAN
   > AGENCY (SWA), FEDERALLY ADMINISTERED TRIBAL AREAS (FATA), PAKISTAN, HELD
   > A MEETING TO DISCUSS THEIR PLANS TO AVENGE THE DEATH OF ZAMARAI.  THE
   > MEETING WAS CONDUCTED AT THE RESIDENCE OF HAJI ((YACOUB)) IN WANA.  ALSO
   > IN ATTENDANCE WERE THREE UNIDENTIFIED OLDER ARAB MALES, WHO WERE
   > CONSIDERED IMPORTANT.  (SOURCE COMMENT:  THE ARABS WERE BELIEVED TO BE
   > IMPORTANT BECAUSE THEY HAD A LARGE SECURITY CONTINGENT WITH THEM.) AT
   > LEAST ONE OF THE THREE UNIDENTIFIED ARABS IN ATTENDANCE WAS PROFICIENT
   > IN THE PASHTUN LANGUAGE AND THE ARABS WERE ACCOMPANIED BY APPROXIMATELY
   > 20 ARAB BODYGUARDS.  ((HAMID GUL)), A FORMER MEMBER OF PAKISTAN'S
   > INTER-SERVICES INTELLIGENCE (ISI), WAS IN ATTENDANCE AT THE MEETING
   > ALSO.  HAMID GUL WAS DESCRIBED AS BEING AN OLDER MAN AND A VERY
   > IMPORTANT PERSON FROM ISI.  (COMMENT:  HAMID GUL WAS DIRECTOR GENERAL OF
   > ISI FROM 1987-1989 AND, ACCORDING TO ISI, HAS NOT BEEN AN OFFICIAL WITH
   > ISI SINCE THAT TIME.  IT WAS NOT KNOWN WHETHER HAMID GUL WAS ACTING WITH
   > THE KNOWLEDGE OR CONSENT OF ISI, OR WHETHER ANY PORTIONS OF ISI WERE
   > AWARE OF HIS ACTIVITIES.)
   > THE MEETING ATTENDEES WERE SADDENED BY THE NEWS OF ZAMARAI'S DEATH AND
   > DISCUSSED PLANS TO COMPLETE ZAMARAI'S LAST MISSION BY FACILITATING THE
   > MOVEMENT OF A SUICIDE VEHICLE-BORNE IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICE (SVBIED)
   > FROM PAKISTAN TO AFGHANISTAN THROUGH THE KHAN PASS, VARIANT:  KHAND
   > PASS.  (COMMENT:  THE KHAN PASS IS LOCATED IN SWA AND HAS BEEN
   > FREQUENTLY USED BY AAF AND ARAB FORCES IN THE PAST.)  THE SVBIED WAS
   > DESCRIBED AS A DARK BLUE MAZDA JINGA TRUCK WITH A GRAYISH WHITE HOOD.
   > AS OF 3 JANUARY, THE SVBIED WAS LOCATED IN AZAM WARSAK, SWA.  DURING THE
   > MEETING, THE ATTENDEES FORMULATED THE PLAN TO MOVE THE SVBIED, DRIVEN BY
   > AN UNIDENTIFIED ARAB, ON 10 JANUARY 2009 THROUGH THE KHAN PASS.  THE
   > MILITANTS PLANNED TO TARGET SAROBI, AFGHANISTAN, WITH THE SVBIED.
   > (COMMENT: SAROBI IS LIKELY A REFERENCE TO SAROBI DISTRICT, PAKTIKA
   > PROVINCE.) HAMID GUL ENCOURAGED THE AAF LEADERS TO FOCUS THEIR OPERATION
   > INSIDE OF AFGHANISTAN IN EXCHANGE FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN'S
   > SECURITY FORCES TURNING A BLIND EYE TO THE PRESENCE OF AAF COMMANDERS
   > AND FIGHTERS IN PAKISTAN (NFI).  ADDITIONALLY, THE AAF LEADERS APPROVED
   > A PLAN TO SEND 50 ARAB AND 50 WAZIRI FIGHTERS TO GHAZNI PROVINCE,
   > AFGHANISTAN IN EARLY FEBRUARY 2009.  ACCORDING TO HAMID GUL, THE AERIAL
   > THREATS IN THE AREA WERE CONTROLLED FROM THE AIRPORT IN WANA.
   >
   >
   > scott stewart wrote:
   >>
   >> Thanks. Matt Powers from Research is working it too.
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >> *From:* ct-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:ct-bounces@stratfor.com] *On
   >> Behalf Of *Ryan Abbey
   >> *Sent:* Monday, July 26, 2010 1:26 PM
   >> *To:* CT AOR
   >> *Subject:* Re: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >> On it.
   >>
   >>
   ------------------------------------------------------------------------
   >>
   >> *From: *\"scott stewart\" <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>
   >> *To: *\"CT AOR\" <ct@stratfor.com>
   >> *Sent: *Monday, July 26, 2010 1:16:40 PM
   >> *Subject: *[CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks
   >>
   >> Ryan and Colby,
   >>
   >>
   >> Can you guys please look into this?
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >> *From:* scott stewart [mailto:scott.stewart@stratfor.com]
   >> *Sent:* Monday, July 26, 2010 1:15 PM
   >> *To:* 'Analyst List'
   >> *Cc:* 'CT AOR'
   >> *Subject:* RE: Guidance on the leaks
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >> Yes, it would be good to know where the information on Gul came from.
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >> Ia**ll get some people on it.
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >> *From:* analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   >> [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] *On Behalf Of *George Friedman
   >> *Sent:* Monday, July 26, 2010 1:09 PM
   >> *To:* analysts@stratfor.com
   >> *Subject:* Guidance on the leaks
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >> There was a huge amount of low level information in the leaks.  It was
   >> overwhelmingly low level tactical reports and trivia.
   >>
   >> There was one thing in them that wasn't.  That was the stuff that
   >> concerned ISI operations in Afghanistan as well as memos on
   >> conversations between senior U.S. officials and Pakistani officials.
   >> That stuff had much higher clearance and ought not have been in
   >> databases containing after-action reports by small units.  The ISI is
   >> technically friendly intelligence agency and the discussion of their
   >> covert operations in Afghanistan potentially reveals sources and
   >> methods that are tightly compartmentalized, if for no other reason
   >> than to keep the political fallout for a minimum.
   >>
   >> As in any intelligence dump, I'm not interested in 99 percent of the
   >> stuff.  It is this 1 percent that interests me for two reasons.
   >> First, it should not have resided in the same database as the other
   >> stuff.  Second, very few people should have clearance to both
   >> databases on a need to know basis. In other words, the person with
   >> access to the ISI file might have clearance to tactical combat
   >> reports, but normally he would be noticed accessing them.
   >>
   >> Regardless of classification, all systems have document tracking and
   >> basic usage warnings. If someone were to access all of these
   >> documents, he would be noticed.  So the issue is first, what was the
   >> ISI file doing mingled with tactical intelligence and who who would
   >> have the ability and need to access both, because at this level of
   >> usage, he would be noticed.
   >>
   >> In a case like this, you ignore the 99 percent.  You focus on the 1
   >> percent that shouldn't have been buried.
   >>
   >> I need someone to search what is available for information on ISI and
   >> Gul.  See what you can find.  I am going to hold the Weekly until this
   >> is done.
   >>
   >> --
   >>
   >> George Friedman
   >>
   >> Founder and CEO
   >>
   >> Stratfor
   >>
   >> 700 Lavaca Street
   >>
   >> Suite 900
   >>
   >> Austin, Texas 78701
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >> Phone  512-744-4319
   >>
   >> Fax  512-744-4334
   >>
   >>
   >>
   >> --
   >> Ryan Abbey
   >> Tactical Intern
   >> Stratfor
   >> ryan.abbey@stratfor.com
   >>
   >
   > --
   > Matthew Powers
   > STRATFOR Research ADP
   > Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
   >
","2010-07-26 20:54:24",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/364817_fw-ct-fw-guidance-on-the-leaks-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","longbow99@earthlink.net",""
365135,"Re: [CT] Afghan Sources in Wikileaks
","   He's a dumb ass

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"scott stewart\" <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>
   Date: Mon, 2 Aug 2010 14:18:03 -0400
   To: 'Fred Burton'<burton@stratfor.com>
   Subject: FW: [CT] Afghan Sources in Wikileaks

   He might enjoy prison...

    

    

   From: ct-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:ct-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf
   Of Fred Burton
   Sent: Monday, August 02, 2010 2:12 PM
   To: CT AOR
   Subject: Re: [CT] Afghan Sources in Wikileaks

    

   I think they are setting Manning up for a Treason prosecution (death
   penalty) and a life plea if he rolls over on others.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Matthew Powers <matthew.powers@stratfor.com>

   Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com

   Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2010 13:03:47 -0500

   To: CT >> 'CT AOR'<ct@stratfor.com>

   ReplyTo: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>

   Subject: [CT] Afghan Sources in Wikileaks

    

   Below are a few of the leaked documents that appear to out Afghan
   informants, with relevant sections bolded.  Certainly not an exhaustive
   list, am only up through March 2007, likely many more, but did not want
   e-mail to become unwieldy. 

   3/27/2007 4:30

   Size and Composition of Patrol:  29 x US, 1 x CAT 1 TERP, 30 x ANA (6 x
   HMMWVs, 3 x Ford Rangers)

   A.Type of patrol:Mounted AND Dismounted

   B.Task and Purpose of Patrol: 3/C conducts leader engagement, QA/QC of
   various projects, and ANP assessment in Sar Hawze district vicinity WB 015
   645 NLT 270430MAR07, in order to assess governance and security conditions
   of the district and provide support to the district level government.   

   C.Time of Return: 1100Z

   D.Routes used and Approximate times from point A to B:
              
   >From Grid/FOB To Grid/FOB Route Travel
   FOB OE Sar Hawze District center RTE Jeep / Navigator (100 mins), 10-25
   km/h
   Sar Hawze District center FOB OE RTE Navigator / Jeep (100 mins), 10-25
   km/h

   E.Disposition of routes used: RTE Jeep remains green, however, river
   crossings are becoming slightly more difficult due to the highly
   trafficked bypasses.  Water levels appear to be average, but the roads
   leading to the crossings are degraded significantly.  The grid WB 10602
   47169 remains treacherous, as LNs have dug away at the mountain to allow
   traffic to pass, however, the erosion next to the road will
   catastrophically fail during the next influx of precipitation.  RTE
   Navigator remains amber at best, and is still heavily pitted and deformed
   from the hundreds of potholes caused by heavy traffic and rainfall. 
   Recommend to propose RTE Navigator as a road project. 
       

   F.Intelligence: (HUMINT/PROPHET/OBSERVATION): Conducted a private meeting
   with one of the police chiefs sources.  His name is Abdul Rahman.  In this
   meeting he told us that earlier this morning he spotted Engineer Mujeed
   along with 25 other personnel.  He said that Mujeed was heavily armed and
   was in the middle of a movement near the town of Kandele.  We were told
   that the group was split into 2 groups.  One of 12 and the other 14.  This
   source told that he has only seen Mujeed twice before in his life but was
   certain it was him.  The groups were wearing predominantly black and white
   garb, and there was a donkey spotted with them.  The source, Rahman,
   informed us that he was moving about an historic area in the vicinity of
   Kandele, a small village consisting of two compounds.  Additionally, Wali
   Mohammed said that he enjoys freedom of maneuver in the area and he has
   occupied a fighting position/cave in that area.  When asked how far away
   the group was spotted, the source estimated about 30km to the north
   northeast.  The group was armed with AK-47s, RPGs, and rockets (probably
   RPGs).  The source has reported to Wali Muhammad  that the last time
   Mujeed was in the area approximately 6 months ago, he came to Rahmans
   compound and burned supplies given to him by coalition forces and
   threatened to kill people the next time the LNs cooperate or receive
   anything from the CFs.  At the time of reporting, Wali Mohammad said he
   had his ANP out in Sar Hawze investigating to see if they could gather
   more information.  The source also told us that the only way to get to his
   location was to dismount vehicles in the vicinity of WB 075 603, the
   village of Towdabay, and move into the mountains.  Rahman seemed genuinely
   concerned for the safety of Sar Hawze, and even more so, he appeared to be
   very loyal to Wali Mohammed.  Rahman was open with his information,
   appeared to rattle off the information quickly, and was formerly a UNAMA
   employee.  It is interesting to note, Wali Mohammed  has a lot of support
   from the local people and will be a key player for future missions.  He
   has started an informant program (unknown how it is funded) that employs
   multiple sources to gain intelligence for him.  The sources include a
   female source that works all around the district, and a special source in
   the village of Martsak  currently, the Martsak source is in Miram Shah
   conducting intelligence gathering for Wali Mohammed.  The sources report
   to Wali Mohammed at random times, but roughly once a month.  Wali Mohammed
   was very careful in protecting the sources identify  he removed all
   unnecessary personnel from the room, only allowing his bodyguard and us to
   remain.  NFTR.

   G.Local Nationals encountered:  
   Name: Wali Mohammed
   Position: Police Chief of Sar Hawze
   Location: Sar Hawze district center
   General Information:  Today, Wali Mohammed was very anxious to inform us
   that one of his sources had information regarding Engineer Mujeed  this is
   the second time he has reported information on Mujeed in the past 4 days. 
   He appears to remain concerned for the safety of his people, and was very
   willing to accompany our patrol to assess the projects in his village. 
   Today was a major IO victory, as the villagers of Sar Hawze were able to
   see US forces, ANP from Sar Hawze, elders of Sar Hawze, and ANA all
   working together as one, cooperating to improve the village of Sar Hawze
   as we walked from project to project.  As mentioned above, Wali Mohammed
   impressed us with his use of LN sources to gain situational awareness on
   enemy activity in his district.  This is something never before seen in AO
   Destroyer, and we were quite pleased with his proactivty and concern. 

   Name: Pir Mohommed
   Position: Sar Hawze Elder
   Location: Sar Hawze district center
   General Information:   Despite the abrupt ending to our engagement with
   him at FOB OE, he was not upset at all with US forces and greeted very
   warmly with hugs.  He was escorted by Ghulam, and immediately asked us how
   we were doing and was very receptive our visit.  He was happy to see us
   because of our developing relationship and also because of our frequent
   visits.  We spoke to him about the projects and our last visit  he showed
   us all of the projects sites as promised in our last engagement and was
   extremely friendly.  We believe atmospherics in the village were
   significantly more positive due to our growing relationship with Pir
   Mohammed. 

   Name: Abdul Rahman
   Position: Source for Wali Mohammed
   Location: Sar Hawze district center
   General Information:   Kharooti tribe, Sipadre sub-tribe, and his fathers
   name is Mohammed Hussein.  He was very straight forward and got to the
   point.  He provided all information he knew, and also answered all
   questions that we had for him.  He was relaxed being around coalition
   forces, even the ANA commander, and seemed genuinely concerned.  Although
   we cannot verify, the manner in which he provided information to us seemed
   to be honest.  We look forward to hearing follow-up reports from him, and
   he mentioned that he would return to Wali Mohammed with further
   information on Mujeed as soon as it became available.  He seemed very
   loyal to Wali Mohammed and the objective of gathering intelligence.

   3/23/2007 0:00

   SUBJECT:  

   Size and Composition of Patrol:  18x US, 1x Cat 1 TERP

   A.Type of patrol:Mounted

   B.Task and Purpose of Patrol: 1/D/2-87 IN conducts Leader Engagement/HCA
   Distro in Sharmakhel and Moni Khel NLT 0900z 22 MAR 2007 and 0700z 23 MAR
   2007 IOT conduct win support of the people of Afghanistan and assess
   effectiveness of IROA leadership.

   C.Time of Return:

   D.Routes used and Approximate times from point A to B:
              
   >From Grid/FOB To Grid/FOB Route Travel
   Margha COB Sharmakhel RTE EXCEL 10-15 km/h
   Sharmakhel Margha COB RTE EXCEL 10-15 km/h
   Margha COB Moni Khel RTE EXCEL 10-15 km/h
   Moni Khel Margha COB RTE EXCEL 10-15 km/h

   E.Local Nationals encountered: 
   A.
   Name: Shabib
   Fathers Name: Habib Gul
   Tribe: Babubli
   Sub-tribe: Haji Khel
   Village:  Marghah
   Location: Marghah COB
   Position: Informant
   General Information:
   Reported that Zardran (commander) is holding a meeting in about 2-3 days
   with about 300-400 Taliban. He is planning on holding the meeting at
   Mameed Millah, which is a large compound located on a mountain near the
   village of Harseen. He stated that the 300-400 Taliban are staging at
   Miramshah. Shabib received this information from his brother who is a Taxi
   driver, who goes from Marghah to Miramshah Pakistan. The informant stated
   that his motive for giving us the information was that his nephew is in
   the ANA at Bermel and he wanted to protect him.

   B.
   Name: Adam Khan
   Fathers Name: Hajab Khan 
   Tribe: Safiuli
   Sub-tribe: Misman Khel
   Village: Moni Khel
   Location: Moni Khel
   General Information:
   We engaged him and a few of his neighbors about the local area. He stated
   that they are pleased to see that the Americans have built a COB at
   Marghah but he was concerned that it was not safe for the herders in the
   area because they go into the mountains to retrieve there sheep and goats.
   He is worried that we would think that the herders were Taliban. He also
   wanted us to try to build a dam because it would benefit all of the local
   farmers.

   C.
   Name: Akbar
   Fathers Name: Shawa Khan   
   Tribe:  Shaifali
   Sub-tribe: Sharmakhel
   Village: Sharmakhel
   Position: Grocery store owner
   Location: Sharmakhel
   General Information:
   Spoke with him for about 15 minutes. We spoke about his local business. He
   stated that 50-80 people visit his shop everyday and the shop is opened
   from 7AM to about 6 PM. He was not overly happy about the COB and wasnt
   really receptive to our presence. He really wasnt interested in hearing
   what we had to say.

   F.Disposition of local security:
   G.HCA Products Distributed: 8 water Jugs, 10 boxes of chai, 4 cans of baby
   formula, 10 bags of flour, 20 notebooks

   H.Atmospherics: (reception of HCA, reactions to ANSF and Coalition forces,
   etc): In both of the villages that we visited the children were the first
   to greet us. After about 5 minutes the adult males from the villages came
   out to speak with us. They were real receptive to the HCA and wanted us to
   help the villages more. 

   I.Afghan Conservation Corps nominations/Status:

   J.Conclusion and Recommendation (Patrol Leader): (Include to what extent
   the mission was accomplished and recommendations as to patrol equipment
   and tactics.)

   The mission was accomplished. The tailgate med caps have been effective in
   the past and we should see positive results from them in the local area
   around the COP. We need to continue to engage the Local villages around
   the COP in order to build a good relationship between the locals and team
   headhunter which will increase the amount of walk in sources. Nothing
   further.

   12/5/2006 0:00

   Meeting with COL Shahwali, ANP Provincial Officer. Discussion Items:
   During lunch, discussed the recent NY Times article which discussed the
   poor ANP. Shahwali says MoI has said the article is incorrect.  I told him
   I believe the comments regarding poor accountability and corruption were
   correct.  We discussed it in some
   more detail.

   Discussed several bits of information:

   1) Moulawi Sharrif, occassionally operating in his property in Janikhel
   district, near Shakhilabad, but
   usually in Pakistan or Dubai (where he owns a business) is still
   supporting TB activities financially and was involved in the murder of
   Adam Khan, former Shakhilabad SG.  His nephew, Sayed Sanad, was captured
   and killed by the tribe of Adam Khan after the murder.  Five others were
   detained and confessed to complicity in the murder but the tribe asked for
   their release, saying the killing of Sayed was retribution enough. Most of
   this has been reported before, to include the info re: Moulawi Shariff. 
   Niam, a farmer in JK, maintains Shariff&amp;amp;apos;s property and
   interests in his absence.

   2) an ANP informant went to Auband, Ghazni and spoke to Moulawi
   Shamsullah, reportedly a very influential TB leader... he said that the
   one legged mullah in Mest, at the Kalagee Mosque is still greatly
   influencing the mullahs and TB in the areas around Mest and KK.  Other
   information pertaining to the one legged (missing right leg) nameless
   Mullah suggests he was associated with the S-BAD DC burning and the
   assassination of Adam Khan.  Adam Khan&amp;amp;apos;s wife reported seeing
   a one legged man leading activity the night of Khan&amp;amp;apos;s murder.

   3) Gul Mohammad, owns a pharmacy in Shakhilabad, from KK, gave fuel to TB
   for the burning of the SBAD DC.  Prior to the attack, Gul reportedly
   inflated the numbers and tried to scare the locals and the ANP (told them
   to give their weapons to the TB if they attacked), said 60 - 70 men were
   going to attack IOT scare ANP away.

   We discussed the fact that ANP should detain individuals they believe are
   complicit in crimes.  Numerous excuses were made by the SBAD SG. 
   Discussed the MK event a week ago re: Taj Mohammad, further ingerpointing
   between ANP and ANA, discussed the need for ANSF cooperation.

   Discussed ongoing district center project, Ajmal Khan asked for us to ask
   the contractor to stop work as the concrete cannot settle any more this
   season and to resume work in the spring.

   Re: solar lights in district, asked for the lights to be emplaced soon
   before the holes ice up and work is no longer possible.  Holes are dug and
   ready.

   Requested Ajmal Khan bring us a list of needy families in SBAD for
   possible HA distro.

   Shahwali said that EN Mujeed has come down from his mountain area and is
   living somewhere else in Sar Hawza.  Shawali will try to get more
   information.  Says many locals in Paktika believe Mujeed is being paid by
   the GoA or CF and that is why no one is taking any action against him. 
   Reported by the Shura in a meeting with SH SG Qadir Gul,
   Mujeed&amp;amp;apos;s men fired an RPG at a CF helo that flew overhead 3
   days ago, no contact.

   end of report.

   Additional Meeting Attendees: Ajmal Khan, Shakhilabad Sub-Governor; Ajmal,
   linguist
    
   PRT Assessment: It was a good chance to meet Ajmal Khan.  He is full of
   excuses on why he and his ANP cannot do things.  Blamed numerous things
   other than their own ineffectiveness.  Shahwali, as always, was full of
   information and cooperative.

   11/19/2006 0:00

   Meeting with Afghan National Security Force. Meeting led by Govenor Gulab
   Mangol to Discuss the upcoming Operation West Hammer. Discussion Items:
   Role of the CF; Role of the ANP; Role fo the ANA; Use of Auxillary ANP/
   Local Tribemen; CSS Plan for resupply and payment of Auxillary ANP;
   Location of enemy and denial enemy movement.
    
   Problem Mitigation Before Next Meeting: The kandak XO and the ANP CoP will
   talk with Alishang CoP and Elder Ashraf from Gonopol seperately about
   supporting the GioA and the CF for Alishang with people and weapons
    
   Additional Meeting Attendees: ANA Kandak XO, Jon; ANP Provincial CoP
   Omaryar; PRT Commander Lt Col Bredenkamp; PRT S2 CPT Lendo; PRT PTAT Team
   Chief TSgt Pacheco; Dyn-Corp Team Chief Mark.
    
   The PRT informed the GoA officially of the existence of Operation West
   Hammer and what the CF were planning on doing during the operation. The
   PRT informed the Governor, as well as the ANA and the ANP about the plan
   and asked for thier input on how the PRT can positively affect the
   province with the help of the GoA. The Governor was very supportive but
   could not understand that this operation is a shaping operation for future
   kinetic Operation to be conducted by 4/82nd ABN BN. He was very happy that
   it would happy. He was concerned that the enemy would escape through the
   mountains and return to terrorize the people after we leave. He was
   concerned about the ANSF and the CF would not be able to close with and
   kill the enemy becuase the enemy would leave when they heard the CF
   coming. He was concerned that we would not know where the enemy was
   concentrated and spend ost of our time looking for them. He was concerned
   that the collateral damage be limited and that the women, children, and
   non-combatants be able to leave a village before the CF and ANSF engaged
   the insurgents in the villages. He also stressed the need for OPSEC with
   his people and stressed that the operation not leave the room.

   He also mentioned that Zier Jon, who is a THT informant, is a double agent
   and that he provides most of his data to the enemy.
   The Kandak XO breifed the plan to incorporate the Alishang CoP and why he
   has the most to loose or to gain. He was the right person for the job
   becuase he was able to explain it with description and first hand
   knowledge. It was also good that it came from him as to make it look like
   an Afghan Plan and not a US plan that we were pushing on the Afghans.

   The provincial CoP had a few issues with the plan about Command and
   Control etc. His first issue was where the people that we are planning on
   using are coming from. When we explained it he was very interested in
   bringing them under the umbrella of the ANP as to have C2 on them and not
   to create a warlord out of the Alishang CoP. We all agreed on this. We
   should be able to bring them under the employment of ANP augmentees. He
   was also concerned about feeding them and paying them. This was taken care
   of when we said that they
   would be paid as augmentees. Our commander brought up a good point though.
   Why do these people ned money to fight when they fought the Russians
   without pay. The answer was that they needed money to feed thier
   familites. MTF. The CDR also brought up the fact there is a man in the
   Gonopol, an elder named Ashraf, that has offered to assist the CF and the
   GoA if and when they enter the Gonopol. The ANA XO and the CoP said that
   they would ask Ashraf to come in and they would look into using him, if
   not for forces to help, than for PID purposes. The meeting was concluded
   with the Governor asking for the next ANSF meeting to be held at the PRT
   with nly the ANA, ANP, PRT, and Gov in attendence. The S2 asked why the
   NDS was not involved and the Gov stated that they could not trust the NDS
   director. This is telling of the current relatiohsip with the NDS. Alot to
   do with DR. Abdullah no doubt. The ANA XO and the ANP CoP stated that they
   would have a COA drawn up for submission to the Govenor on Tues at the
   ANSF meeting at the PRT. This will be first ANSF meeting in over 2 months.
   Definitley a step in the right direction.

   1/28/2004 0:00

   TRANSLATION OF A NIGHT LETTER IVO ORGUN-E: THE POLICE CHIEF OF ZORMAT PD
   GAVE THE LETTER TO USSF.  IT WAS HAND WRITTEN ON A PRINTED TALIBAN
   LETTERHEAD.  THE LETTERHEAD IS PRINTED IN PASHTO AND ENGLISH.  THE POLICE
   CHIEF STATES THAT THE LETTER WAS PASSED TO AN INFORMANT (WOULD NOT
   DISCLOSE ID) FROM MAULAWE ABDUL RAZAAQ. RAZAAQ CLAIMS TO BE A DISAFFECTED
   MEMBER OF THE ZORMAT AREA TALIBAN.  RAZAAQ STATED THAT A MEETING OF THE
   ADDRESSORS WAS HELD AT THE VILLAGE OF SULTANI, NEAR ORGUN-E.  POLICE CHIEF
   STATES THAT THE TERM &amp;amp;quot;PISTOL&amp;amp;quot; REFERS TO A
   PEN-TYPE ZIP GUN THAT FIRES A SMALL CALIBER PISTOL ROUND.  THE CONTACT
   PROVIDED HIM WITH SUCH A DEVICE AND HE TURNED IT OVER TO US.  THE LETTER
   WAS WRITTEN ON 22 JAN 04 AND READS:

   HELLO MY FRIENDS, BROTHER ABDULLAH, DR. SARWAR, MAULAWE KHILOLAH, DEAR
   MULLAH AKHTAR, HAJI JUMA GUL, MULLAH HAJI SHER.

   FROM SAFE RAHMAN MONSUR, GUL RAHMAN, MAULAWE ABDUL RAZAAQ, AMIR MOHAMMED
   SUMADI,

   DR. SARWAR SHOULD KNOW THAT GUL RAHMAN&amp;amp;apos;&amp;amp;apos;S FAMILY
   NEEDS MONEY. TELL HIS FAMILY THAT GUL RAHMAN WAS INJURED BUT IS FINE NOW.
   AND DEAR DR. SARWAR, THE FOUR MOTORCYCLES THAT WE SENT ARE FOR MULLAH
   AKHTAR, ALUM GUL, KHUDI NAZER, AND HAJI SHER.  EACH INDIVIDUAL IS ALSO TO
   RECEIVE 10,000 RUPEES. AND ANYONE WHO NEEDS A PISTOL, PLEASE GIVE HIM ONE.
   OUR JIHAD WILL NEVER BE OVER AGAINST THE CHRISTIANS AND JEWS.  DO NOT
   ALLOW PEOPLE TO TAKE A VOTER CARD.  DROP FLIERS AT EVERYONES HOME TELLING
   THEM NOT TO VOTE. THOSE THAT DO WILL HAVE NO REASON TO COMPLAIN BECAUSE OF
   THE CONSEQUENCES.

   FROM GUL RAHMAN, HELLO TO MY FRIEND DR. SARWAR. AND FROM GAMAR DEN, ZURMAT
   SAYS THAT DR. SARWAR KNOWS AHMED ZI, THE SECURITY GUARD OF THE ZORMAT
   BAZAAR, IS TO RECEIVE 5,000 RUPEES BECAUSE HE IS HELPING OUR FRIENDS VERY
   MUCH. 

   PLEASE SEND RESPONSE BACK BY ABDULLAH OF AHMED KHIEL VILLAGE AND PLEASE
   DR. SARWAR PAY OUR MEN AND YOU WILL BE PAID BACK BY ABDUL RAZAAQ.  DEAR
   DR. SARWAR, YOU TOLD ME THAT YOU HAD PREPARED 15 PEOPLE WHO WERE READY FOR
   JIHAD BUT ONLY TWO HAVE SHOWN UP.
","2010-08-02 20:19:43",1,"2012-02-29 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/365135_re-ct-afghan-sources-in-wikileaks-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","scott.stewart@stratfor.com",""
366609,"Fw: Comrade J - More details about the autopsy (and colon cancer)
","   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
   Date: Sun, 26 Sep 2010 10:01:56 -0400
   To: 'TACTICAL'<tactical@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Comrade J - More details about the autopsy (and colon cancer)
   Looks like the autopsy was actually completed before his death was made
   public, and sounds like he also had colon cancer.

   http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20100926/ARTICLE/9261027/2055/NEWS?Title=An-espionage-mystery-solved-on-an-autopsy-slab

   To print this article, open the file menu and choose Print.
   Printed on page A1

                 An espionage mystery solved on an autopsy slab

   By BARBARA PETERS SMITH

   Published: Sunday, September 26, 2010 at 1:00 a.m.

   In Moscow and Washington, if not in his adopted home of Osprey,
   speculation has sizzled about what -- or who -- killed Sergei Tretyakov,
   former KGB agent and perhaps the most prominent Russian defector of the
   post-Cold War era.

   But now it seems that Tretyakov, 53, was done in by an extra helping of
   chicken pot pie.

   Dr. Russell S. Vega, chief medical examiner for Florida's District 12,
   certified this month that the ex-spy choked to death in June. Vega also
   revealed that Tretyakov's days might have been numbered anyway -- by an
   advanced, and apparently undetected, cancer of the colon.

   It was a forensic investigation that nearly did not happen.

   When Helen Tretyakov found her husband unconscious on the living room
   floor June 13 and called 911, she and the paramedics responded as though
   he had suffered a heart attack.

   After an 18-minute attempt at resuscitation failed, the paramedics
   pronounced him dead at 7:28 p.m.

   Because Tretyakov had a doctor willing to sign his death certificate after
   the apparent heart attack, Vega said, his office initially had no interest
   in the case. That changed the next day, after a call from the Sheriff's
   Office.

   \"Additional information was presented to us about his background and
   history,\" Vega said, \"which automatically raised a degree of suspicion
   that wouldn't have existed in an average citizen's death of this type.
   Based on that additional layer of suspicion, that's when we got involved,
   and asserted jurisdiction over the case and brought him in for an
   autopsy.\"

   Tretyakov has been described as the most important defector ever from
   Russia to the United States. His acceptance of FBI protection in October
   2000 was linked to the high-profile arrest, four months later, of FBI
   agent Robert Phillip Hanssen on charges of selling secrets to Russia. At
   the time of his arrest, Hanssen's mother, Vivian, was living in Venice.

   In March 2001, a month after the Hanssen case broke, Tretyakov settled
   with his wife, Helen, in the peaceful Park Trace neighborhood near Pine
   View School, where they lived for more than nine years. Two weeks after he
   died there, Russian espionage was once again in the news, with the U.S.
   arrest and deportation of 10 suspected spies.

   Greeting some of those deportees on their return to Russia in July, Prime
   Minister Vladimir Putin said darkly that \"traitors always end badly. They
   finish up as drunks, addicts, on the street. Recently one, for instance,
   ended his existence abroad and it was not clear what the point of it all
   was.\"

   But as spy watchers avidly wondered whether Putin was hinting at foul play
   against Tretyakov, Vega had already found the 5-inch-long piece of chicken
   that ended the life of the former spy.

   Vega's final report was not made public until after all toxicological and
   other lab reports had been completed.

   \"In this particular case, I played on the side of caution and waited for
   all the tests to come back before finalizing the cause of death,\" he said.
   \"In most cases I would not have done that; I would have certified it right
   then.\"

   Vega conducted the autopsy on June 15, after his investigator had
   interviewed Helen Tretyakov and the first responders. At this point, death
   from heart disease was still considered the most likely possibility.

   \"We knew he had a history of being a pretty heavy drinker, and being
   overweight, and having high blood pressure and high cholesterol,\" Vega
   said. \"When I get that history from anybody, and it's somebody who has an
   apparent sudden collapse, then 95 times out of a hundred or more, when we
   get those cases it's going to be a sudden death from heart disease.\"

   Helen Tretyakov did not make her husband's death public until July 9 --
   the same day the Russian spy exchange occurred -- calling a Washington,
   D.C., radio station to say he had died of coronary arrest. So at the time
   Vega was examining the body, only law enforcement agencies and Tretyakov's
   family and friends knew he had died. Vega said he received no pressure
   from the FBI or anyone else.

   \"You know what? I took the extra degrees of scrutiny because I knew it was
   important to do so,\" he said. \"But intellectually I knew what was going on
   from the beginning. I said this is not going to be a suspicious case; I
   don't think this guy would have been knocked off by ex-KGB agents or
   something like that. It turns out that was true, but my initial assertion
   that it was a natural death was wrong. It was a non-suspicious kind of
   accidental death.\"

   Proceeding with a thorough but routine autopsy, Vega looked for scars that
   might provide evidence of poisoning, and found none. He did see some
   evidence of underlying heart disease. But he also found colon cancer: a
   large tumor that, in his opinion, could have proven fatal if not diagnosed
   within a few months. Because it was not fully obstructing the colon, Vega
   said, the tumor was probably asymptomatic, and there is no evidence
   Tretyakov was aware of it. There were also indications that the cancer
   might have been in the process of spreading to Tretyakov's liver.

   Coming to the end of his examination, Vega said, \"I was leaning toward the
   heart being the cause of death. And that's when I was examining the neck
   structures and found the very large obstruction in the airway.\"

   Even then, he said, it did not feel like a dramatic discovery.

   \"We find stuff in the airways pretty frequently. So when you first get a
   hint that there's something in there, I'm not necessarily thinking this is
   a choking death,\" he said. \"It was not until I realized that this was
   nothing that had been sitting around in the stomach for a while. It was
   really lodged, and a very long piece. I was absolutely convinced that it
   was a real choking death.\"

   Sending his investigator back to interview Helen Tretyakov, Vega learned
   she had made one of her husband's favorite dishes that night, chicken pot
   pie.

   \"He had apparently finished dinner, and was going to make a cocktail,\"
   Vega said. \"It appears that he decided to have an additional helping, and
   that additional helping was the one that got stuck.\"

   Choking deaths are rare in adults, Vega said, unless they have some
   neurological disorder that makes it hard to swallow. But choking sometimes
   occurs when a person is intoxicated.

   \"There's no way to tell for certain\" if that was the case with Tretyakov,
   Vega said. \"I can tell you, in a general way, intoxication can impede
   somebody's ability to clear their airway. And he had a pretty good alcohol
   level, so I think probably in this case it did contribute.\"

   The official cause of death for Sergei Tretyakov of Osprey is now a matter
   of public record: asphyxia due to airway obstruction. That may not
   discourage gossip by international espionage enthusiasts, but Vega
   considers the case closed. He also considers it memorable.

   \"If you take away the whole spy thing,\" he said, \"it was an interesting
   case because of such an obvious large food bolus that was causing the
   choking. We just don't see them that often.\"

   This story appeared in print on page A1

   Copyright (c) 2010 HeraldTribune.com - All rights reserved. Restricted use
   only.
","2010-09-26 17:55:18",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/366609_fw-comrade-j-more-details-about-the-autopsy-and-colon-cancer.html","burton@stratfor.com","","spytalk@comcast.net",""
368059,"FW: Terrorism Intelligence Report - Security Contractors in Iraq: Tactical -- and Practical -- Considerations
","   From a senior FBI Hqs agent and former DSS agent. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: jimcasey58@aol.com [mailto:jimcasey58@aol.com]
   Sent: Thursday, October 11, 2007 4:43 PM
   To: burton@stratfor.com
   Subject: Re: Terrorism Intelligence Report - Security Contractors in Iraq:
   Tactical -- and Practical -- Considerations
   Good Stuff Fred! I can just picture you and I strapping on a big 'ol one
   and leading a Blackwater team into a dangerous motorcade!  OK, so maybe
   the most dangerous thing we do is cut in line at Starbucks.  We're
   too old (and smart) for this other shit.  Jim 
    
","2007-10-12 14:22:35",1,"2012-03-01 23:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/368059_fw-terrorism-intelligence-report-security-contractors-in.html","burton@stratfor.com","","stewart@stratfor.com,responses@stratfor.com",""
368368,"Re: What a day
","   I think he is screwed.

   The FBI Asst Director letter to State has not been acted on. State setting
   on it for a reason. Could be him or us collectively.
   Surmise the CIA has done him in due to his contacts with the ISI. FBI told
   me the Agency doesn't like us.

   With the DHS download of his cell and laptop, we need Steve F to generate
   the paper on what to do if the FBI shows up.

   His phone and cell numbers would also be downloaded into NSA.

   At this point, his status would be revoked I would say, entry barred as an
   undesireable alien. State would view his end run on the Canadian PPT as an
   effort to screw them.

   He could try to walk in to the US Emb Ottawa and volunteer to work for the
   CIA, who may be willing to help. Maybe not.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: George Friedman <gfriedman@stratfor.com>
   Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2010 11:26:47 -0500
   To: Fred Burton<burton@stratfor.com>
   Cc: <bokhari@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: What a day
   Too complicated for me.  I will talk with Kamran and then you can after. 

   On 10/10/10 09:33 , Fred Burton wrote:

 Yes, pls use my cell -- 512-632-9839

 Kamran Bokhari wrote:

 Today
 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

 -----Original Message-----
 From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
 Date: Sun, 10 Oct 2010 09:25:09
 To: <bokhari@stratfor.com>
 Cc: George Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>
 Subject: Re: What a day

 Today or Monday?

 Kamran Bokhari wrote:
  

 Will be talking to George at 1 central. If you can make it, can do a 3-way.

 ------Original Message------
 From: Fred Burton
 To: Kamran Bokhari
 Cc: friedman@att.blackberry.net
 Cc: George Friedman
 Subject: Re: What a day
 Sent: Oct 9, 2010 11:05 AM

 As a suggestion, it may be good to regroup Monday and think through next
 steps.

 Kamran Bokhari wrote:

    

  When's a good time for you guys?

 On 10/8/2010 11:44 PM, George Friedman wrote:


      

 I'm sorry this happened kamran.  I don't know how to solve this problem and neither does fred. Let's talk when you feel up to it.


 ------Original Message------
 From: Kamran Bokhari
 To: George Friedman
 To: Fred Burton
 ReplyTo: Kamran Bokhari
 Subject: What a day
 Sent: Oct 8, 2010 10:11 PM

 After five hours of waiting in a detention area at the border with the family we were denied entry because I have been refused visa in the past. Essentially after almost six years there is zero difference in my status in the eyes of U.S. authorities. Went through several rounds of questioning. In fact, they brought 3 DHS agents from their field office in Buffalo to interrogate me. Pretty much every single question was about my job and the people that I meet when I travel to my aor. They took my wallet, my phones, my laptops and went thru everything. Even asked me for my passwords to the laptops and blackberries. Completely humiliated, disgusted, and frustrated. In the end my wife and my children were crying and Chandni blaming me for ruining their lives. I need to think about what I am going to do moving forward.
 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T


 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T


        

 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
    

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334
","2010-10-10 19:01:01",1,"2012-03-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/368368_re-what-a-day-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com",""
369305,"WikiLeaks
","Jim:  How bad will the next round be?  Got any idea?  Thx

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2010-11-27 19:45:40",1,"2012-03-01 23:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/369305_wikileaks-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","jimcasey58@aol.com",""
369979,"Re: WikiLeaks question
","Did that one enlisted Army dude leak all that stuff?  

------Original Message------
From: Michael Posillico
To: Fred Burton {6}
Subject: Re: WikiLeaks question
Sent: Nov 27, 2010 12:50 PM

No but the G is very concerned particularly on Iraq traffic which will expose the underbelly of our role

----- Original Message -----
From: burton@stratfor.com <burton@stratfor.com>
To: Posillico, Michael
Sent: Sat Nov 27 13:42:33 2010
Subject: WikiLeaks question

Mike:  How bad will the next round be?  Got any idea?  Thx

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T


Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2010-11-27 20:01:54",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/369979_re-wikileaks-question-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","PosillicoM2@state.gov",""
370352,"Re: Julian Assange arrest
","   Revenge is a dish best served cold.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"William \\"Bill\\" O'Chee\" <william@himalayaconsulting.biz>
   Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 21:57:49 +1000
   To: <burton@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: Julian Assange arrest
   Sadly he didn't have a car accident on the way there.
   William Oa**Chee
   aa**aa\"*aa>>* 
   Partner
   Himalaya Consulting
   Australia:      +61 422 688886
   China mob:  +86 1365 1001069
   On 07/12/2010, at 9:52 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Thx

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"William \\"Bill\\" O'Chee\" <william@himalayaconsulting.biz>
     Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 21:23:40 +1000
     To: <fred.burton@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Julian Assange arrest
     Dear Fred,
     In Jen's absence, I thought I should send you this:
     http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/technology/technology-news/wikileaks-founder-arrested-in-london-20101207-18ogq.html
     Hooray!
     Best regards,
     William Oa**Chee
     aa**aa\"*aa>>* 
     Partner
     Himalaya Consulting
     Australia:      +61 422 688886
     China mob:  +86 1365 1001069
","2010-12-07 13:27:46",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/370352_re-julian-assange-arrest-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","william@himalayaconsulting.biz",""
370901,"Fw: Megrahi
","   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: fduggan@comcast.net
   Date: Sat, 4 Dec 2010 23:19:05 +0000 (UTC)
   To: Fred Burton<burton@stratfor.com>
   Cc: scott stewart<scott.stewart@stratfor.com>; Mike
   Parks<longbow99@earthlink.net>
   Subject: Re: Megrahi
   I have seen some press/internet stuff that he is living in a \"luxury
   villa\" with two luxury cars in the driveway. I dont know what classifies
   as luxury in Libya but he did have several million dollars in his bank
   account and the family had always been well taken care of according to
   reports.
   As to BP, I  can send you some stuff. BP admitted they lobbied the British
   Govt, \"without naming Megrahe\", urging the Brits to get the Prisoner
   Transfer negotiaitons moving since it was holding up the old contract they
   had signed with Libya. There  was only one Libyan in a Scottish jail so 
   they did have to name him. Also, the Scottish govt was lobbied by a Libyan
   business group  and BP was part of that group. Foreign Secretary Jack
   Straw  admitted the pressure from BP. It all goes back to what is  now
   called \"the deal in  the desert\" in 2007 between Tony Blair and the
   Libyans to sign a Prisoner Transfer  Agreement, and the same day the 
   Libyans finally  agreed to an oil contract with BP. They the Libyans
   diddled the oil company for a couple of years, telling them nothing was
   going  to happen until Megrahi was back home in  Libya. The Scots were not
   a part of the Prisoner Transfer  Agreement  and  resented it, but they got
   cute and  released the murderer on \"compassionate  release\" instead of the
   Prisoner Transfer Agreement. The Minister for Justice, Kenny MacAskill, is
   the one that did this (obviously not by himself) and thought he could make
   this case without actually producing any real evidence that Megrahi was
   dying. It all blew up in his  face since the little bastard Megrahi is
   still alive after being released in August 2009.
   Frank
   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: fduggan@comcast.net
   Cc: \"scott stewart\" <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>, \"Mike Parks\"
   <longbow99@earthlink.net>
   Sent: Saturday, December 4, 2010 9:03:33 AM
   Subject: Re: Fwd: Megrahi Family to Sue Over False Imprisonment

   Frank -

   Do we know what the suspect is doing in Libya or where he is living?

   Do you guys have any contacts or sources that could locate him?

   My mind is turning on how we can possibly get to him or write about it.

   Also, did you guys find any smoking guns w/his release linked to British
   oil deals w/Libya?

   Thanks,  Fred

   fduggan@comcast.net wrote:
   >
   > ----- Forwarded Message -----
   > From: fduggan@comcast.net
   > To: \"eileen walsh\" <EileenWals@aol.com>, \"brian flynn\"
   > <BrianF@schlossbergflynn.com>, \"Melanie Daniels\"
   > <jerzybird@gmail.com>, \"Kristie Smith\" <kristiesmith56@hotmail.com>,
   > \"wendy morton\" <wsmphx@hotmail.com>, \"glenn and carole johnson\"
   > <Johnsonvpaf103@comcast.net>, \"Jack Schultz\" <jackschultz@webtv.net>,
   > \"george williams\" <Geedubblu@aol.com>, \"judy o'rourke\"
   > <jlorourk@syr.edu>, joandater@yahoo.com, SLS92718@aol.com,
   > theonehiding@gmail.com, marylouciulla@optonline.net,
   > kathyted715@gmail.com, mstratis@optonline.net
   > Sent: Friday, December 3, 2010 7:24:46 PM
   > Subject: Re: Megrahi Family to Sue Over False Imprisonment
   >
   > This the same thing that his son arranged at Georgetown University - a
   > video interview which is part of an expensive public relations
   > initiative to show Gadhafi as a responsible leader. This one was at
   > the London School of Economics, and as usual, it is a PR disaster when
   > he shows himself to be a nutcase. The Scottish government is handling
   > it well by saying that they stand by the conviction of guilt and that
   > he had an unprecedented \"prison\" arrangement with a kitchen, cable TV,
   > prayer room and whatever else he wanted. The Libyan government paid
   > for it all, as well as a residence nearby for his family.
   > Frank
   >
   >  
   >
   >
   http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/politics/Megrahi39s-family-to-sue-over.6648587.jp?articlepage=2
   >
   >  
   >
   > */
   > /**//**//*
   >
   >  
   >
   >  
   >
","2010-12-05 01:16:41",1,"2012-03-23 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/370901_fw-megrahi-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","alfano@stratfor.com",""
373613,"Re: Athens:  COS Welch Killing
","   Fred,
    
   I remember very little about the Welch case.  I believe 17 November was
   responsible and it wouldn't be surprised if an FSN didn't collaborate,
   which led to his assassination.  I just can't remember!   After returning
   from my tour in Israel, I was assigned to OSO as a senior Inspector. 
   Greece was a critical threat for terrorism Post and one of the posts we
   inspected because of 17 November (Marxist-Leninist) terrorists attacks and
   the Greek Government's inability to stop them.  As I remember, many
   believed the government was infiltrated by 17 November members and as you
   are well aware, the Greeks kept a close eye on U.S. Diplomats to identify
   intelligence officers; FSN's would have no problem knowing who was or who
   was not an intelligence officer.  Unfortunately, Welch would have been
   easily identified and targeted not only by the Greek Government, but 17
   November.
    
   Steve
    
   In a message dated 4/17/2011 1:34:11 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
   burton@stratfor.com writes:

     Steve:

     I've heard from a pretty good Agency source that Welch was set up by an
     Embassy FSN. 

     Have you ever heard that?

     Thanks much, Fred

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2011-04-18 02:33:29",1,"2012-03-03 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/373613_re-athens-cos-welch-killing-.html","SRG47@aol.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
373660,"Re: Bruno
","   maybe your israeli source can tell you that? but it's a nice start for an
   investigative novel.
   too bad Genoud isn't arround anymore, he would have known for sure
   On 16.06.2011, at 16:12, Fred Burton wrote:

     Who last saw Bruno and when?  Where was he located? 

     On 6/16/2011 9:03 AM, Nadav Schirman wrote:

       i'd love to find him and talk to him, wouldn't you?
       On 16.06.2011, at 16:00, Fred Burton wrote:

         More from the same source:

         With Carlos protected in jail, the Israelis were asked by their
         allies to go after Carlos* right hand, Bruno Breguet. The Israelis
         knew Bruno very well since  1970 when he was arrested in Israel by
         Mossad as a member of the *People*s Front* for carrying illegal
         explosives. He was then convicted to 15 years in prison but was
         released before the term agreeing to collaborate with the Israelis.
         He disappeared in November 95 when he sailed from Switzerland to
         Italy.

          

         On 6/16/2011 8:56 AM, Nadav Schirman wrote:

 very interesting. but why would the israelis be interested in him, they were not interested in carlos at all.


 On 16.06.2011, at 15:52, Fred Burton wrote:


 From a Israeli intelligence contact:

 Bruno was picked up by an Israeli navy commando and brought to a
 friendly port in the Medditeranean. There he was picked up by a team
 with two white vans to an unknown destination. The agents were
 americans. There were rummors that he was taken to a CIA secret site and
 he died during the interogation. I personally  believe that he is living
 under a new identity somewhere in South America.
","2011-06-16 16:15:04",1,"2012-03-12 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/373660_re-bruno-.html","nadav.schirman@me.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
373667,"Re: Research Question
","   Carlos was captured in August 1994.  Bruget disappears in November 1995.   
   I do not  believe the intell on Carlos came from Bruget.  It came from the 
   Sudanese who wanted to regain our favor after we put them on our           
   state-sponsored list.  I do not see our hands in the Bruget disappearance  
   - not really our style.  Not French, Swiss ( he was a                      
   Swiss citizen), or German syles either.  Israelis would have no reason to  
   go after him - Carlos yes, but not Bruget.  No, I think either one of the  
   Palestinian terrorist groups or an Arab intell service did this.  Of       
   course, Bruget could have planned this disappearance.  Maybe he is in a    
   small dacha in Argentina (sic)?  No Fred, I think this is an Arab hit but  
   we will never be sure.                                                     
                                                                              
   May I ask why you are interested in this case?  Book subject?  Heard you   
   wrote one on the 1970s murder of the Israeli air attache in Maryland - a   
   BSO hit.                                                                   
                                                                              
   Regards                                                                    
                                                                              
                                                                              
   --- On Mon, 4/25/11, Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com> wrote:              
                                                                              
     From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>                                  
     Subject: Re: Research Question                                           
     To: \"Dennis Pluchinsky\" <dpluchinsky@rocketmail.com>                     
     Date: Monday, April 25, 2011, 9:34 AM                                    
                                                                              
     Hummm....I seem to recall us tipping off the Frogs to Carlos'            
     whereabouts in The Sudan.  Is it feasible we flipped Bruget and he was   
     used to locate Carlos?                                                   
                                                                              
     On 4/25/2011 11:32 AM, Dennis Pluchinsky wrote:                          
                                                                              
       Bruget and Koop were arrested in early 1980s, not 1990s.               
                                                                              
       All open source info states he disappeared on November 12, 1995.       
       Either kidnapped and killed by an intelligence agency or               
       Palestinians.  Simply put, a mystery.  How important is this to you?   
       I could use a chit and contact a former RAF analyst at the BfV who is  
       now retired and ask him.  Personally, I think Bruget was killed by     
       either Syrian, or Iraqi intelligence services because of his knowledge 
       of Carlos' work for these states.  You must know that Carlos published 
       his bio in 2004 and in 2009 sent President Obama a letter asking for   
       help in finding Bruget - all open source.  Proof on who kidnapped /    
       killed Bruget will be hard to come by - but a lot speculations.  As    
       you know, there are many mysteries in this field that will never be    
       solved.                                                                
                                                                              
       --- On Mon, 4/25/11, Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com> wrote:          
                                                                              
         From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>                              
         Subject: Re: Research Question                                       
         To: \"Dennis Pluchinsky\" <dpluchinsky@rocketmail.com>                 
         Date: Monday, April 25, 2011, 9:10 AM                                
                                                                              
         What happened to him?  Was he rendered?                              
                                                                              
         On 4/25/2011 11:09 AM, Dennis Pluchinsky wrote:                      
                                                                              
           Yes, he was arrested in Paris in the 1990s along with Carlos's     
           girlfriend Magadelan Koop.  Carlos carried out several attacks on  
           French targets and even sent a threat letter to the French         
           Minister of interior.  French held fast.  Both were eventually     
           released.  Koop in Venezuela and Bruguet disappeared ....          
                                                                              
           --- On Mon, 4/25/11, Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com> wrote:      
                                                                              
             From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>                          
             Subject: Research Question                                       
             To: dpluchinsky@rocketmail.com                                   
             Date: Monday, April 25, 2011, 9:00 AM                            
                                                                              
             Hello Dennis,                                                    
                                                                              
             Do you recall a terrorist by the name of Bruno Breguet, who      
             disappeared                                                      
             in 1995 on a ferry from Italy to Greece?                         
                                                                              
             He was linked to Carlos.                                         
                                                                              
             Thanks much, Fred                                                
","2011-04-25 18:44:22",1,"2012-03-05 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/373667_re-research-question-.html","dpluchinsky@rocketmail.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
373680,"Re: Bruno Breguet
","   In a message dated 4/25/2011 11:21:54 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
   burton@stratfor.com writes:

     http://www.heraldscotland.com/carlos-the-jackal-asks-obama-for-help-in-tracking-down-disappeared-terrorist-1.829024

   Fred,
    
   I remember him and I never heard the CIA had taken him.  Back in 1995 they
   didn't do that.  The Agency didn't even snatch Carlos back then.  He was
   running around so publicly that anyone could have taken him if they
   wanted.  With all the information he had in his head, I'd be surprised if
   his former associates would let him leave the life that easily.  Nov 17
   was such a secret organization that if he knew any of them and thought
   about going straight (and possibly talking), they would have killed him. 
   Nobody really ever talked about Nov 17, so killing him would have been a
   good example to anyone who was contemplating it.
    
   The French incident where they tried to blow up the power plant was the
   one the Amcit was involved in.  I thought he did some time in France
   before moving on to Greece, as did Kopp and Bruguet. 
    
   Scott
","2011-04-26 14:37:59",1,"2012-03-03 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/373680_re-bruno-breguet-.html","Trippsb@aol.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
373798,"Re: Athens and Welch killing
","   In a message dated 4/23/2011 12:28:27 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
   burton@stratfor.com writes:

     Scott - Was Carlos linked to Nov 17?   Thanks

     On 4/23/2011 11:10 AM, Trippsb@aol.com wrote:

       He may have been stationed there, but there was a Nov 17 task force
       that operated for years running down every lead (and I mean every, I
       located one of the nephews of an American associate of Carlos, who had
       close ties to Nov 17 so they could pitch him, another thing that never
       made it into my EERs).  It included natives, native speakers, former
       case officers stationed there...some very good people, among the best
       I worked with.  I'm sure they would have run that lead to ground.  My
       first case out there was trashing one of their sources who they cut
       off right away.  I knew a lot of what they were doing, especially when
       it came to embassy employees because I could access their files
       without anyone getting upset at the Agency looking at FSNs or
       employees.  Some of the DO officers can never admit they were wrong. 
       It goes to the narcissism that makes them good at what they do.
        
       Sorry we missed you in DC.  I got a really crappy cold and breathing
       all over everyone and hacking on them would have made me wildly
       popular.
        
       Scott
        
       In a message dated 4/23/2011 9:47:40 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
       burton@stratfor.com writes:

         The source claims he was stationed in Athens w/the DO and the COS
         dismissed the allegation w/out further investigation. 

         On 4/22/2011 8:22 PM, Trippsb@aol.com wrote:

           In a message dated 4/17/2011 1:32:56 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
           burton@stratfor.com writes:

             Scott,

             I've heard from a pretty good Agency source that Welch was set
             up by an Embassy FSN. 

             Have you ever heard that?

             Thanks much, Fred

             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

           Fred,
            
           No, and I worked with the task force chasing them.  It was a sub
           group under Mike Freeman...
            
           Scott

   Fred,
    
   I don't remember any direct links.  There were people who were Carlos
   associates who lived or to Greece, that kind of thing.  The fellow
   travelers of terrorism.  The theory was that they all knew each other so
   maybe you could follow the daisy chain, like drug cases, one would give
   you another higher up.  One was an American who was a Carlos associate in
   France (?) who blew up a communication tower if I remember correctly. 
   Either he or his wife (she wasn't a US cit) were the ones of interest.  I
   found a relative here, who I passed off to the N17 people, who they were
   going to use to contact him.  I did several of those (N17, Sikhs) and once
   they were comfortable with me, I'd pass them off to the \"pros\".  The guy
   was also traveling to the US for the first big World Bank radical pissing
   match, but I was never able to find him in the huge gaggle and they didn't
   want him picked off at port of entry by INS, not to mention they weren't
   sure INS would really find him when he entered, nor were they very
   enamored that INS would be able to do it gently, vice hammering the guy.
    
   I don't remember the guy's name, but i would recognize it again if someone
   ran it by me. 
    
   Scott
","2011-04-23 22:02:55",1,"2012-03-03 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/373798_re-athens-and-welch-killing-.html","Trippsb@aol.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
373807,"Re: Research Question
","   Bruget and Koop were arrested in early 1980s, not 1990s.                   
                                                                              
   All open source info states he disappeared on November 12, 1995.  Either   
   kidnapped and killed by an intelligence agency or Palestinians.  Simply    
   put, a mystery.  How important is this to you?  I could use a chit and     
   contact a former RAF analyst at the BfV who is now retired and ask         
   him.  Personally, I think Bruget was killed by either Syrian, or Iraqi     
   intelligence services because of his knowledge of Carlos' work for these   
   states.  You must know that Carlos published his bio in 2004 and in 2009   
   sent President Obama a letter asking for help in finding Bruget - all open 
   source.  Proof on who kidnapped / killed Bruget will be hard to come by -  
   but a lot speculations.  As you know, there are many mysteries in this     
   field that will never be solved.                                           
                                                                              
   --- On Mon, 4/25/11, Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com> wrote:              
                                                                              
     From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>                                  
     Subject: Re: Research Question                                           
     To: \"Dennis Pluchinsky\" <dpluchinsky@rocketmail.com>                     
     Date: Monday, April 25, 2011, 9:10 AM                                    
                                                                              
     What happened to him?  Was he rendered?                                  
                                                                              
     On 4/25/2011 11:09 AM, Dennis Pluchinsky wrote:                          
                                                                              
       Yes, he was arrested in Paris in the 1990s along with Carlos's         
       girlfriend Magadelan Koop.  Carlos carried out several attacks on      
       French targets and even sent a threat letter to the French Minister of 
       interior.  French held fast.  Both were eventually released.  Koop in  
       Venezuela and Bruguet disappeared ....                                 
                                                                              
       --- On Mon, 4/25/11, Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com> wrote:          
                                                                              
         From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>                              
         Subject: Research Question                                           
         To: dpluchinsky@rocketmail.com                                       
         Date: Monday, April 25, 2011, 9:00 AM                                
                                                                              
         Hello Dennis,                                                        
                                                                              
         Do you recall a terrorist by the name of Bruno Breguet, who          
         disappeared                                                          
         in 1995 on a ferry from Italy to Greece?                             
                                                                              
         He was linked to Carlos.                                             
                                                                              
         Thanks much, Fred                                                    
","2011-04-25 18:32:14",1,"2012-03-05 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/373807_re-research-question-.html","dpluchinsky@rocketmail.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
373860,"Re: Bruno
","   i think so
   On 16.06.2011, at 17:20, Fred Burton wrote:

     Is the General still alive? 

     On 6/16/2011 10:02 AM, Nadav Schirman wrote:

       why did they want to protect him?
       don't forget the french had a vendetta. the DST used their best
       hunter,  General Rondot, to hunt him. Catching him was a political
       joker for interior minister of the time as Carlos has seeded terror
       across france when M was in prison. 
       if you can talk to Rondot that will be a big thing as well.
       On 16.06.2011, at 16:18, Fred Burton wrote:

         More --

         On Carlos: There are few reasons why the Israeli*s never targeted
         Carlos the Jackal. One of the reasons is that he was never a threat
         to the Israeli national security or the *head* of any anti-Israelis
         mission that he was accounted for. Many operations were blamed on
         him because people didn't now who had committed them. Carlos was
         addicted to alcohol and was drunk most of the day, hanging out and
         not hiding from anyone. Mossad considered him a non-threat and
         dismissed him as not worthy of their attention even though they knew
         where he was living.

         His locations were under surveillance and known at all times by the
         French, Germans, Americans, Israelis and other Easter European
         countries. Most of his *career* he was an *insider* for vary intel
         agencies. As you well know he became an official spy for the Eastern
         Germany regime in 1979. Since he was just a gangster, had no
         religion, and fighting for the Palestinian cause was a good cover
         for him, he sold the information he collected on Arab countries also
         to Western intel agencies for good money.

         The reason the French and the Americans decided to arrest him in 94
         is to protect him. A coalition of Arab intel agencies led by the
         Iraqis were on their way to assassin him on his way from Syria to
         Czechoslovakia where he planned to go to retrieve funds. The plan
         was to attack him in Budapest were he owned few safe homes.

          

         On 6/16/2011 9:03 AM, Nadav Schirman wrote:

           i'd love to find him and talk to him, wouldn't you?
           On 16.06.2011, at 16:00, Fred Burton wrote:

             More from the same source:

             With Carlos protected in jail, the Israelis were asked by their
             allies to go after Carlos* right hand, Bruno Breguet. The
             Israelis knew Bruno very well since  1970 when he was arrested
             in Israel by Mossad as a member of the *People*s Front* for
             carrying illegal explosives. He was then convicted to 15 years
             in prison but was released before the term agreeing to
             collaborate with the Israelis. He disappeared in November 95
             when he sailed from Switzerland to Italy.

              

             On 6/16/2011 8:56 AM, Nadav Schirman wrote:

 very interesting. but why would the israelis be interested in him, they were not interested in carlos at all.


 On 16.06.2011, at 15:52, Fred Burton wrote:


 From a Israeli intelligence contact:

 Bruno was picked up by an Israeli navy commando and brought to a
 friendly port in the Medditeranean. There he was picked up by a team
 with two white vans to an unknown destination. The agents were
 americans. There were rummors that he was taken to a CIA secret site and
 he died during the interogation. I personally  believe that he is living
 under a new identity somewhere in South America.
","2011-06-16 17:37:20",1,"2012-03-05 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/373860_re-bruno-.html","nadav.schirman@me.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
373862,"Assange
","just told SkyNews concerns for US extradition

More and more likely

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2010-12-17 15:32:59",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/373862_assange-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","tactical@stratfor.com",""
373982,"Re: [CT] Untangling the Bizarre CIA Links to the Ground Zero Mosque
","   The Imam is an operational asset of the FBI.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2010 07:22:26 -0500
   To: CT AOR<ct@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [CT] Untangling the Bizarre CIA Links to the Ground Zero Mosque
   [very conspiratorial, but interesting]
   Untangling the Bizarre CIA Links to the Ground Zero Mosque
   New York Observer
   By Mark Ames
   September 10, 2010 | 2:36 p.m
   http://www.observer.com/2010/politics/untangling-new-intrigue-behind-ground-zero-mosque

   So far, the debate over the proposed Islamic center near Ground Zero has
   unfolded along predictable lines, with the man at the center of the
   project, Imam Feisal Abdul Rauf, drawing attacks from the right painting
   him as a terrorist sympathizer with ties to Hamas and the Muslim
   Brotherhood.

   But meanwhile, links between the group behind the controversial mosque,
   the CIA and U.S. military establishment have gone unacknowledged.

   For instance, one of the earliest backers of the nonprofit group, the
   Cordoba Initiative, that is spearheading the Ground Zero mosque, is a
   52-year-old Scarsdale, New York, native named R. Leslie Deak. In addition
   to serving on the group's board of advisors since its founding in 2004 by
   Imam Feisal Abdul Rauf, Deak was its principal funder, donating $98,000 to
   the nonprofit between 2006 and 2008. This figure appears to represent
   organization's total operating budget-though, oddly, the group reported
   receipts of just a third of that total during the same time period.

   Deak describes himself as a \"Practicing Muslim with background in
   Christianity and Judaism, [with] in-depth personal and business
   experiences in the Middle East, living and working six months per year in
   Egypt.\" Born into a Christian home, Deak became an Orthodox Jew and
   married a Jewish woman before converting to Islam when he married his
   current wife, Moshira Soliman, with whom he now lives in Rye.

   Leslie Deak's resume also notes his role as \"business consultant\" for
   Patriot Defense Group, LLC, a private defense contractor with offices in
   Winter Park, Florida, and in Tucson. The only names listed on the firm's
   website are those of its three \"strategic advisers.\" These include retired
   four-star General Bryan \"Doug\" Brown, commander of the U.S. Special
   Operations Command until 2007, where he headed \"all special operations
   forces, both active duty and reserve, leading the Global War On
   Terrorism,\" and James Pavitt, former deputy director for operations at the
   Central Intelligence Agency, where he \"managed the CIA's globally deployed
   personnel and nearly half of its multi-billion dollar budget\" and \"served
   as head of America's Clandestine Service, the CIA's operational response
   to the attacks of September 11, 2001.\"

   Besides Pavitt, Brown and a third advisor, banker Alexander Cappello, the
   Patriot Defense Group is so secretive it doesn't even name its management
   team, instead describing its anonymous CEO as a former Special Forces and
   State Department veteran, the group's managing director as a former CIA
   officer experienced in counter-terrorism in hostile environments and the
   group's corporate intelligence head as a \"23-year veteran of the U.S.
   Secret Service who worked on the personal security details of former
   Presidents Bush and Clinton.\"

    

   Leslie Deak and Moshira Soliman/ PanachePrive

    

   Patriot Defense Group's primary business involves leveraging its
   government connections and know-how. The firm is divided into two
   divisions: one that \"focuses exclusively on the needs of the U.S. military
   and law enforcement communities as well as the requirements of friendly
   foreign governments,\" and a corporate division, which \"provides business
   intelligence and specialized security services to corporate clients and
   high net-worth family enterprises.\"

   So, to recap: From 2006 to 2008, R. Leslie Deak worked as a \"business
   consultant\" to this super-secretive security contractor with ties to the
   CIA and counterterrorism forces, and in those same three years he also
   donated nearly $100,000 in seed money to the foundation now advocating the
   construction of the so-called Ground Zero Mosque.

   Interestingly, during the same three-year period during which the Deak
   Family Foundation was financing the Cordoba Initiative, Deak also donated
   a total of $101,247 to something called the National Defense University
   Foundation. The National Defense University is a network of war and
   strategy colleges and research centers (including the National War
   College) funded by the Pentagon, designed to train specialists in military
   strategy. The organization recently announced a November 5 dinner gala in
   honor of Defense Secretary and former CIA chief Robert Gates. Sponsors
   include Northrup Grumman, Boeing, Lockheed Martin and...the Patriot
   Defense Group.

   Deak also sits on the NDUF's board of directors, the chairman of which is
   Mark Treanor, the former general counsel for Wachovia bank from 1998
   through its collapse in 2008 and a major bundler of campaign donations for
   the McCain-Palin ticket in 2008. Wachovia, now owned by Wells Fargo, was
   recently fined $160 million for laundering \"at least $110 million\" in
   Mexican drug money between 2003 and 2008, while Treanor was Wachovia's
   general counsel, though the figure is likely higher since Wachovia
   admitted it didn't put any controls on at least $420 billion-that's
   billion-in cash moved through its network of Mexico currency exchanges.

   Which leads to another odd coincidence: Laundering money for drug lords is
   what brought down Deak & Co., the company run by Leslie Deak's father,
   Nicholas Deak, years ago. The elder Deak, a former top intelligence
   commander during World War II for the OSS (the forerunner of the CIA), was
   the founder of Deak-Perera, which became for a time one of the world's
   biggest foreign currency and gold dealers. But in 1984, a Presidential
   Commission on Organized Crime accused the firm of acting as a money
   laundering operation for Columbia drug cartels, who reportedly brought
   sacks of cash containing tens of millions of dollars into Deak's Manhattan
   offices. By the end of 1984, Deak & Co. had declared bankruptcy, and a
   year later, Nicholas Deak was murdered in the company's headquarters at 29
   Broadway by a deranged homeless woman.

   After the firm went bankrupt and Leslie Deak was left on his own, the
   corporation was broken up and sold off in pieces. One company that traces
   its beginnings to the defunct Deak empire is Goldline International, a
   business concern well known to fans of Glenn Beck as well as California
   investigators. Goldline is to Glenn Beck what General Electric was to
   Ronald Reagan: The company sponsors Beck's TV and radio shows as well as
   his touring act, and Beck is its public face. The Los Angeles County
   District Attorney's office, along with the Santa Monica City Attorney's
   office, are currently investigating Goldline for defrauding customers by
   railroading gullible customers into buying their most debased products.

   Speaking of Glenn Beck, it has been reported that Saudi Prince Al-Waleed
   bin Talal, the second-largest shareholder in News Corp., the parent
   company Fox News, which airs Beck's program, is also a major funder of
   Imam Rauf's projects, as Jon Stewart viewers heard all about last week.

   Coincidences happen, of course. (For instance, Pamela Geller, the blogger
   who's become the leading voice denouncing the mosque project was once,
   bizarrely enough, associate publisher of The New York Observer.)

   But add to this array of unexpected connections the work of Imam Rauf on
   behalf of the U.S. government-which includes serving as an FBI
   \"consultant\" and being recruited as a spokesperson by longtime George W.
   Bush confidante Karen Hughes, who headed up the administration's
   propaganda efforts in the Muslim world-and a compelling picture begins to
   emerge. Bush's favorite Imam, with backing from a funder with connections
   to the CIA, the Pentagon and the currency trading company that now
   sponsors rightwing firebrand Glenn Beck, proposes to build a mosque around
   the corner from the site of the most devastating terrorist attack ever
   visited on America. In the name of \"[cultivating] understanding among all
   religions and cultures,\" he puts forth a project that offends a majority
   of Americans and deals a significant setback to the broader acceptance of
   Muslim-Americans. It's a little like Billy \"White Shoes\" Johnson claiming
   the only reason he moonwalks after scoring a touchdown is to lower
   tensions on the football field and raise the other team's spirits.

   Whether the Cordoba Initiative ever gets its way with the Ground Zero
   Mosque, it may well have a lasting legacy at odds with its stated
   intention: By damaging the very moderates and progressives who actually
   view New York, and the nation as a whole, as a tolerant melting pot, and
   strengthening the position demagogues on both sides, it will almost
   certainly deal a setback to interfaith relations. It will also help to
   hobble the Democratic party. Which just might have been the point all
   along.

   Either that, or it's merely a coincidence that this controversy has
   erupted now, during crucial mid-term elections. In which case we can all
   go back to what we were doing before-either denouncing the Park51 Mosque
   as an affront to Americans, or championing it as a symbol of our
   fundamental rights-playing our accustomed roles in a drama that seems too
   perfect, somehow, to believe.
   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2010-09-13 14:38:35",1,"2012-02-27 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/373982_re-ct-untangling-the-bizarre-cia-links-to-the-ground-zero.html","burton@stratfor.com","","ct@stratfor.com",""
375123,"Fw: [CT] Assange-Manning Link Not Key to WikiLeaks Case
","   Not for Pub --

   We have a sealed indictment on Assange.

   Pls protect

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2011 08:16:53 -0600
   To: CT AOR<ct@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [CT] Assange-Manning Link Not Key to WikiLeaks Case
   January 25, 2011 3:37 PM
   Assange-Manning Link Not Key to WikiLeaks Case

   http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162-20029521-503543.html

   A report that investigators have so far failed to establish a direct link
   between the founder of the document-dumping website WikiLeaks and the Army
   private accused of providing the site with hundreds of thousands of secret
   State Department cables won't derail the military's case as much as it
   might seem.

   The case against Army Pfc. Bradley Manning didn't hinge on investigators
   uncovering a direct link to WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange anyway, CBS
   News National Security Correspondent David Martin reports.

   Special Section: WikiLeaks

   On Monday, NBC News reported that military officials said Manning couldn't
   be directly linked to Assange in allegedly handing off the cables and
   other secret documents that led to last summer's publication of the
   Afghanistan and Iraq war logs.

   But no one ever thought there was direct contact between Assange and
   Manning, Martin reports. Assange meeting or e-mailing Manning would be
   like the director of the Central Intelligence Agency meeting or e-mailing
   a CIA agent. The theory of the case is that Assange orchestrated the leak
   through cut outs deliberately designed to immunize himself from charges of
   espionage.

   In his own e-mails, Manning refers to himself as a source for Assange even
   though he did not give the documents to Assange but allegedly to a third
   person while home on Christmas leave, Martin reports.

   Attorney General Eric Holder has said the Justice Department was
   considering filing espionage charges in the case.

   Meanwhile, Manning continues to be held in a military brig while the Army
   considers prosecuting him. He has been charged with illegally obtaining
   more than 150,000 secret cables and giving more than 50 of them and a
   classified video to an unauthorized person.

   Manning's lawyer told The Associated Press Friday that a mental-health
   investigation to determine if Manning can stand trial will likely begin in
   February.
   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2011-01-26 15:23:28",1,"2012-02-28 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/375123_fw-ct-assange-manning-link-not-key-to-wikileaks-case-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
375919,"On Carlos the Jackal & Wadi Haddad
","   Hello Fred,

    

   The information I have is based on a mix of public and classified
   information that I was exposed to during my service in Israel and Europe
   and, since I*m not sure what information is still classified, please do
   not mention my name as a source if you decide to use the information
   bellow.

   As you know, the Eastern European communist block of countries, in
   addition to Arab countries, were safe havens for both Carlos and Wadi.
   Ceausescu and his regime in Romania together with ex-Yugoslavia, East
   Germany and Hungary were all protecting the Palestinian organizations and
   Carlos.

   Part of the information I have was also obtained from General Pacepa, who
   was Ceausescu*s chief of foreign intelligence service and also from German
   archives.

    

   On Wadi Haddad: contrary to Aharon Klein and other publications on *behalf
   of* Mossad officers, the killing of Haddad by Mossad with poisoned
   chocolate is just a nice fiction story. Haddad was indeed on the Mossad
   assassination list and a *Red Page* order was given on his name along with
   other names such as Kamal Adwan, Hussein Abad Al-Chir, Mohammed Boudia,
   Abu Daud and others.

    

   However, he died from Leukemia that he suffered for a long time. The
   version of Mossad*s assassination played good for all the parties,
   presenting Wadi as a hero and Mossad as an assassins organization that the
   terrorists should be afraid of. Wadi*s death also cleared the way for
   Carlos to approach the Middle Eastern leaders and offer his services to
   them.

   Please keep in mind that Wadi was an Orthodox Christian and not a Muslim
   Palestinian. It is really hard to claim that he fought for the Palestinian
   cause. He was recruited by the Russians while still being in Amman, Jordan
   where he ran a clinic together with George Habash. Wadi used the
   Palestinian cause to form a Marxist-Leninist terrorist arm that never
   served the Palestinian cause. He was *removed* from the Mossad*s
   assassination list per the Russians request. The Russians paid the
   Israelis a high price for this request.

   On Carlos: There are few reasons why the Israeli*s never targeted Carlos
   the Jackal. One of the reasons is that he was never a threat to the
   Israeli national security or the *head* of any anti-Israelis mission that
   he was accounted for. Many operations were blamed on him because people
   didn't now who had committed them. Carlos was addicted to alcohol and was
   drunk most of the day, hanging out and not hiding from anyone. Mossad
   considered him a non-threat and dismissed him as not worthy of their
   attention even though they knew where he was living.

   His locations were under surveillance and known at all times by the
   French, Germans, Americans, Israelis and other Easter European countries.
   Most of his *career* he was an *insider* for vary intel agencies. As you
   well know he became an official spy for the Eastern Germany regime in
   1979. Since he was just a gangster, had no religion, and fighting for the
   Palestinian cause was a good cover for him, he sold the information he
   collected on Arab countries also to Western intel agencies for good money.

   The reason the French and the Americans decided to arrest him in 94 is to
   protect him. A coalition of Arab intel agencies led by the Iraqis were on
   their way to assassin him on his way from Syria to Czechoslovakia where he
   planned to go to retrieve funds. The plan was to attack him in Budapest
   were he owned few safe homes.

    

   With Carlos protected in jail, the Israelis were asked by their allies to
   go after Carlos* right hand, Bruno Breguet. The Israelis knew Bruno very
   well since  1970 when he was arrested in Israel by Mossad as a member of
   the *People*s Front* for carrying illegal explosives. He was then
   convicted to 15 years in prison but was released before the term agreeing
   to collaborate with the Israelis. He disappeared in November 95 when he
   sailed from Switzerland to Italy.

    

   Please feel free to contact me for any other additional information you
   consider valuable.

    

   I*ll send you shortly information on encryption software.

    

   Best regards,

   David

   On Mon, Jun 13, 2011 at 11:31 AM, Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com> wrote:

     Hello David,

     Sorry for the delay in response, I'm to the point where I can no longer
     keep up w/the volume of email and phone calls I receive. 

     My research question centers on Wadi Haddad, formerly of the PFLP.  I've
     seen reports in various books that he was poisoned by means of
     chocolates by the MOSSAD.    Is that true?   Secondly, why didn't the
     MOSSAD target Carlos the Jackal for elimination? 

     Thank you,
     Fred
      

     On 6/10/2011 10:46 AM, David Dafinoiu wrote:

       Fred, I trust all is well.

        

       I finally took a brake to follow up with you on few topics that we
       discussed during our meeting.

        

       We agreed that you will send me information on the research that you
       would like me to help you with for your new book.

        

       Also, I attached here the contact information for the decision maker
       on partnerships with vendors at the Joint Task Force North: LTC
       Centurion at Ingrid.Centurion@jtfn.northcom.mil, (915) 313-7727.

        

       I spoke with Greg Yavner, the CEO and President of Texas-Israel
       Chamber of Commerce, about you and we would like to offer you to join
       our Homeland Security and Defense committee where my partner Dan
       Cofall is the chairman. The chamber is a great business hub and could
       be a great source of business for Stratfor too.

        

       I*ll also send you more info on our company in the next days. Jay and
       Laurie said hello.

        

       Have a great weekend.

       David

       --
       Cordially,
        
       David Dafinoiu
       President

       NorAm Intelligence
       Mobile: 646-678-2905
       david@dafinoiu.com
       dd@noramintel.com
       http://noramintel.com
        
       
       The information contained in this facsimile or electronic message is
       confidential information intended for the use of the individual or
       entity named above. If the reader of this message is not the intended
       recipient, or an employee or agent responsible for delivering this
       message to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any
       dissemination, or copying of this communication is strictly
       prohibited. If this message contains non-public personal information
       about any consumer or customer of the sender or intended recipient,
       you are further prohibited under penalty of law from using or
       disclosing the information to any third party by provisions of the
       federal Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act. If you have received this facsimile or
       electronic message in error, please immediately notify us by telephone
       or email and return or destroy the original message to assure that it
       is not read, copied, or distributed by others.

   --
   Cordially,
    
   David Dafinoiu
   President
   NorAm Intelligence
   Mobile: 646-678-2905
   david@dafinoiu.com
   dd@noramintel.com
   http://noramintel.com
    
   
   The information contained in this facsimile or electronic message is
   confidential information intended for the use of the individual or entity
   named above. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient,
   or an employee or agent responsible for delivering this message to the
   intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, or
   copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If this message
   contains non-public personal information about any consumer or customer of
   the sender or intended recipient, you are further prohibited under penalty
   of law from using or disclosing the information to any third party by
   provisions of the federal Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act. If you have received
   this facsimile or electronic message in error, please immediately notify
   us by telephone or email and return or destroy the original message to
   assure that it is not read, copied, or distributed by others.
","2011-06-15 20:42:22",1,"2012-03-05 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/375919_on-carlos-the-jackal-and-wadi-haddad-.html","david@dafinoiu.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
375925,"Re: On Bruno
","   Hello Fred,

    

   I called few former colleagues that I worked with in Germany and Eastern
   Europe and also pulled out some private information I have on Bruno. I
   also confirmed few details with public source information.

    

   Bruno*s (code name *Luca*) last known trip started on November 11, 1995,
   with his girlfriend and their daughter Shona, 2 years old, when they
   boarded a ferry in the Greek port of Igoumenitsa on their way to Ancona,
   Italy, which was an approx 15 hours trip.  Arrived at Ancona, where the
   Italian customs were informed about Bruno*s presence on the ferry, and
   being on the Italian intelligence red list as *persona non grata*, he was
   separated from his girlfriend and his daughter, and sent back with the
   ferry to Igoumenitsa.

    

   The Italians were warned of Bruno*s presence on the ferry by the Greek
   police. The Greek secret service waited for him back in Igoumenitsa to
   pick him up. Apparently the Greeks were acting on behalf of French
   authorities now. He was living part of the year in Perdika, a small Greek
   village not far from Igoumenitsa, with the knowledge and the protection of
   the country*s secret service since 1994. After Carlos was arrested, Bruno
   was spending the time between Greece, Italy and Austria. Bruno*s problems
   started when the Greeks and the French found out that he was a double
   agent.

    

   While the Greeks were waiting to pick him up at the port, an Israeli Navy
   commando team accompanied by a war ship and a helicopter, that had a
   mission close to Cyprus, were sent after Bruno to extract him before the
   he gets in the port. He was picked up 17 minutes before the ferry arrived
   in the port of Igoumenitsa.

  After the mysterious disappearing there were rumors that it was a special
  operation supported by NATO naval forces, which is not true. There were few
  individuals in European ports at that time presenting themselves as NATO
  officers, but they were Mossad and US Navy Intel. Mossad officers with
  European citizenship posed as 'NATO officials' in many other previous missions
  around the world, including the Middle East.

   Another version was that Bruno was abducted by the Greek secret service in
   an operation of thugs linked to the case of Carlos and sponsored by Paris.

    

   Another version was that Bruno was hiding in the ferry out of fear* a
   non-sense version since the Greek secret service searched the ferry in the
   port. The rumors about his dead body being in Greece were based on the
   fact that he never contacted his family after the disappearing.

   Back in 1994, four Swiss terrorists were arrested and detained for several
   weeks by the Department General of Switzerland because they were suspected
   of belonging to what Stasi used to call \"Separat\", the code name for the
   Carlos Group. Their names were passed to the Hungarian secret services by
   Bruno during one of his trips to Austria. The Hungarians passed the names
   to the Swiss.

   The US intelligence community had good relationship with the Hungarians in
   1995, where the Americans had few secret bases. After the delivery of
   Bruno by the Israelis to the Americans (I*m not sure about the agency, but
   it could be the Navy intelligence) in a friendly port, Bruno was taken to
   Hungary. I just learned that Bruno left Budapest, Hungary under a new
   identity at the end of 1997 to South America. The most likely destination
   was Cuba.

   An evidence that he was still alive in 1996 was the fact that his initial
   patron, the Swiss Nazi Francois Genoud, was looking for him too. Francois
   had the information on Bruno*s possible locations from one or more
   ex-Stasi officers with connections in the Hungarian secret service. Genoud
   also had ties to UBL that was looking after Bruno in Arab countries. Much
   of bin Laden group's international activities took place in the Geneva
   offices of Saudi Investment Company, managed by board members that
   included Baudoin Dunant, who represented Francois Genoud when he was on
   trial for participation in international terrorism.

   The CIA and the Israelis tried to take Genoud out in October 1993 when he
   escaped a Mossad assassination attempt at his home in Switzerland. Since
   then he became aware that the Israelis were closing in on him.

   I arrived in Budapest in May 1996, but never heard about Bruno after the
   mission in the Mediterranean. In the next few days I left Budapest to
   Switzerland via Austria and Germany. I*m not sure if Genoud knew about
   Bruno*s location, even if he was well connected in the CIA. I*m not even
   sure that the CIA knew Bruno*s location. I just learned that in June 1997
   he was still in the Hungarian secret service custody.  

    

   However, Genoud died few days later on May 30, 1996 when he just returned
   from a restaurant to his home town on Lake Lausanne. This time he was
   poisoned for real and died immediately. The media reported that his
   friends and relatives accompanied him back to his house, where one of his
   lunch companions prepared him a lethal cocktail per Genoud requests. At
   least this time the Mossad was not accused for the assassination :)

   If it is true that Bruno left to Cuba in 1997 and is still alive, then he
   should be 62 years old today. His daughter, Shona, should be 18 years old.

   I*ll continue investigating the case and keep you informed.

   Best regards,

   David

   On Wed, Jun 15, 2011 at 5:03 PM, Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com> wrote:

     Yes in deed.  Most interested.  I don't think we grabbed him because
     that was on my watch. 
     On 6/15/2011 2:39 PM, David Dafinoiu wrote:

       On the contrary to what many people believe, Mossad is not
       assasinating people that easy. Even the most recent incident in Dubai
       was an accident, they tried to bring the victim to Israel and exchange
       him with the Israeli soldier in Iranian's custody.

       Bruno was picked up by an Israeli navy commando and brought to a
       friendly port in the Medditeranean. There he was picked up by a team
       with two white vans to an unknown destination. The agents were
       americans. There were rummors that he was taken to a CIA secret site
       and he died during the interogation. I personally  believe that he is
       living under a new identity somewhere in South America. I left the
       Navy in 96 and have not heard about him since then. I can try to find
       out more on him if you are interested.

       Best regards, David

       Sent from my NorAm portable Galaxy(c)

       David Dafinoiu
       President

       NorAm Intelligence

       Mobile: 646-678-2905
       david@dafinoiu.com
       dd@noramintel.com
       http://noramintel.com

       On Jun 15, 2011 1:48 PM, \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com> wrote:

   --
   Cordially,
    
   David Dafinoiu
   President
   NorAm Intelligence
   Mobile: 646-678-2905
   david@dafinoiu.com
   dd@noramintel.com
   http://noramintel.com
    
   
   The information contained in this facsimile or electronic message is
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","2011-06-17 20:06:49",1,"2012-03-05 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/375925_re-on-bruno-.html","david@dafinoiu.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
375951,"Re: Question
","Hi Fred,
I don't believe we're interested! We might be interested in advertising 
in the program.

David Cohen
ThunderCloud Subs
www.thundercloud.com
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pages/ThunderCloud-Subs/38315210779
512-479-8805


On 7/18/11 9:04 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
> Hello David,
>
> We are putting together our final list of sponsors and wanted to
> double-check w/TCloud to see if there would be interest?   The team and
> booster club would also reciprocate w/team meals.
>
> Thanks!  Fred
>
> On 5/31/2011 8:38 AM, T Cloud wrote:
>> What size is the sign? How much is it?
>>
>> David Cohen
>> ThunderCloud Subs
>> www.thundercloud.com
>> Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pages/ThunderCloud-Subs/38315210779
>> 512-479-8805
>>
>>
>> On 5/28/11 4:45 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
>>> Would Thundercloud have any interest in sponsoring a scoreboard sign
>>> for the Westwood High School (NW Austin) Girls Softball field?  Tough
>>> to raise sponsors for the girls when football rules in Texas and the
>>> high school students and families frequent the Thunderclouds near the
>>> school.  The sign would also be visible from the neighborhood streets
>>> and the field is used my many club teams.  Thank you, Fred Burton
>>>
>>>
","2011-07-20 16:31:24",1,"2012-03-05 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/375951_re-question-.html","T_Cloud@austin.rr.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
376053,"Fw: Pan Am 103
","   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Ronald Duchin\" <Duchin@stratfor.com>
   Date: Sun, 7 Nov 2010 17:14:39 -0500
   To: <fduggan@comcast.net>
   Cc: 'Fred Burton'<fred.burton@stratfor.com>
   Subject: RE: Pan Am 103

   Frank:

    

   Pardon my late response to your email. I have been up to my ears in
   Stratfor briefings this week and this is the first free day that I have
   had. I am glad that you wrote to Fred Burton and Scott Stewart. They are
   both valuable, professional  guys and are part of the STRATFOR hierarchy.

   As I am sure that Chet told you, I am still with STRATFOR creating
   business in the Washington area. Would love to hook up with you and Chet
   for lunch and to share stories.

   -Ron

    

   Ronald A. Duchin

   (Office) 703-407-4297

   (Cell) 703-407-4297

    

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: fduggan@comcast.net [mailto:fduggan@comcast.net]
   Sent: Tuesday, November 02, 2010 10:40 PM
   To: Ronald Duchin
   Subject: Fwd: Pan Am 103

    

   Hey Ron. I just found this article your guys wrote last year. It is great,
   and will be put to good use as I fight with the contrarians.  I saw Chet
   Nagle at a party last night for just a few minutes and we didnt get much
   time to chat. Hope you are well.
   Frank
   ----- Forwarded Message -----
   From: fduggan@comcast.net
   To: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Mike Parks\" <longbow99@earthlink.net>, \"scott stewart\"
   <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 2, 2010 10:26:57 PM
   Subject: Re: Pan Am 103

   Thanks Fred. John Bennan called me last Aug 19th, the day before Megrahi
   was released, to say that he had just spoken to Scottish Justice Minister
   Kenny MacAskill, at the request of President Obama.  We were still not
   sure what MacAskill was going to do, but John Brennan said they were
   assured there would not be any \"celebratory activities.\" That assurance
   was clearly not honored.
   I will add you and Mike Parks to my email list. Thanks for all your
   support.
   All the best,
   Frank Duggan

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: \"scott stewart\" <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>, fduggan@comcast.net
   Cc: \"Mike Parks\" <longbow99@earthlink.net>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 2, 2010 8:42:44 PM
   Subject: RE: Pan Am 103

   Hello Frank,

    

   Horrible event. 

    

   I would be honored to send you a signed copy of my book Ghost, which
   discusses my read (from the DSS end) on the Libyan attack.   Pls also add
   me to the mailing list, if you can. 

    

   Our CT office started and operated the Rewards for Justice Program (am
   copying former agent Mike Parks) and we set the initial $2 million dollar
   reward on the heads of the Libyans responsible.  

    

   Simply shocking to me that we allowed the hand-over to the Libyans.  Have
   you been given any sort of briefing by State or the Agency on what really
   took place?  

    

   How can we help you?  

    

   Best Regards,

    

   Fred

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart [mailto:scott.stewart@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, November 02, 2010 7:16 PM
   To: fduggan@comcast.net
   Cc: 'Fred Burton'
   Subject: RE: Pan Am 103

   Yes, Gannon is a great guy, as is my colleague Ron Duchin.

    

   I'm cc:ing another of my Stratfor colleagues on this message. His name is
   Fred Burton and he worked the Pan-Am 103 investigation for DS.   It is
   indeed personal for us.

    

   Is there anything we can do to help you and your organization?

   ~s

    

    

   From: fduggan@comcast.net [mailto:fduggan@comcast.net]
   Sent: Tuesday, November 02, 2010 5:48 PM
   To: scott stewart
   Subject: Re: Pan Am 103

    

   Good to hear from you, Scott. That paper on the Lockerbie bombing was
   spectacular and I am embarrassed I never saw it before. I knew a bunch of
   Stratfor guys in years past (Ron Duchin, Buckley Carlson, Blumel (forget
   his first name) and some other guys I helped in your efforts on Bankruptcy
   reform about ten years ago.
   That Pan Am flight was amazing- it is very rare that I dont meet someone
   who knew someone connected to the bombing, and like you, it becomes
   personal. A lot of guys knew Matt Gannon, including John Brennen, now the
   terrorism czar, and it is personal with him too. The Gannon family was
   large, as you know, so I assume your friend is Richard Gannon. He is a
   good guy, very quiet, and shows up every year at the memorial service we
   have at Arlington Cemetery. I will add you to my mailing list and you will
   get more shit than you want, but you can just delete it. Thanks again, and
   let's stay in touch.
   All the best,
   Frank Duggan

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"scott stewart\" <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>
   To: fduggan@comcast.net
   Sent: Tuesday, November 2, 2010 3:57:25 PM
   Subject: Stratfor Reader Response

   Hello Frank,

    

   Thank you for the very kind words. I lost two colleagues on Pan-Am 103
   (Dan O'Connor and Ron Lariviere) and the brother of a third colleague
   (Matt Gannon) was also killed on that flight.

    

   I'd like to thank you for all the efforts your organization makes to help
   bring those who murdered my colleagues and the rest of the Pan-Am 103
   victims to justice.

    

   Warmest regards,

   Scott Stewart

    

    

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: [Letters to STRATFOR] RE: Libya: A Hero's Welcome 
      Date: Tue, 2 Nov 2010 14:28:52 -0500 (CDT)              
      From: fduggan@comcast.net                               
        To: letters@stratfor.com                              

    

  sent a message using the contact form at https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

  

 This is the best and clearest explanation of the bombing and the evidence 

 against Libya that I have seen. I have always had great admiration for 

 Stratfor but I must admit, I just found this year old article. It will be 

 very helpful in light of the persistent charges from the Libya shills and 

 Megrahi supporters who try to point the finger away from Libya. Thank you 

 very much.

 Frank Duggan, President

 Victims of Pan Am Flight 103, Inc.

  

  

  

 RE: Libya: A Hero's Welcome

  

 Frank Duggan

 fduggan@comcast.net

 President, Victims of Pan Am Flight 103, Inc

 416 N. St. Asaph Street

  

 Alexandria

 Virginia

 22314

 United States

 703 548 8311

  

   No virus found in this incoming message.
   Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
   Version: 9.0.864 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3233 - Release Date: 11/02/10
   02:34:00

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   No virus found in this message.
   Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
   Version: 10.0.1153 / Virus Database: 424/3234 - Release Date: 11/02/10
","2010-11-07 23:17:06",1,"2012-03-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/376053_fw-pan-am-103-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","stewart@stratfor.com",""
377839,"Re: XXX
","Med issue is still not 100 percent in Gs mind.

------Original Message------
From: Anya Alfano
To: burton@stratfor.com
Cc: Korena Zucha
Subject: Re: XXX
Sent: Jan 15, 2010 1:25 PM

Nothing new that I've found.  Are there any priorities about what else
we need to know at this point? 

On 1/15/2010 2:21 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
> Any update on The Lord of Dripping Springs?
>
> Daddy G told me yesterday he's figuring out a way to make her disappear.  
>
> How?  He has no idea.
>
> She was holding court yesterday per Stick.
>
> G also briefed Peter and told him to stay mum.
>
>
> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>   


Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2010-01-15 20:28:12",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/377839_re-xxx-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","anya.alfano@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
378182,"Re: MX1 concerned about Wikileaks
","   State has pulled the plug on OGA access to their cables.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"scott stewart\" <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>
   Date: Sun, 5 Dec 2010 13:02:33 -0500
   To: 'Marko Papic'<marko.papic@stratfor.com>; 'Fred
   Burton'<burton@stratfor.com>
   Cc: 'Alex Posey'<alex.posey@stratfor.com>; 'Ben
   West'<ben.west@stratfor.com>
   Subject: RE: MX1 concerned about Wikileaks

   This makes a lot of sense. The Wikileaks case will do the same thing (at
   least for a while) for a lot of countries as far as their contact with the
   Americans go.

    

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Saturday, December 04, 2010 9:33 PM
   To: Fred Burton
   Cc: Alex Posey; scott stewart; Ben West
   Subject: Re: MX1 concerned about Wikileaks

    

   I doubt they would scrub his name. The only repercussion for MX1 would be
   that he said something embarrassing and Wiki is all about publishing
   embarrassing statements. He is concerned that if the Juarez briefs are
   published, they might have him saying something negative about GOM, that
   is really his only concern.

   The interesting thing he highlighted is that it is going to be more
   difficult to be frank with Americans now. There is concern that more such
   leaks could happen. From Mexicans' standpoint they are not really afraid
   of giving secrets to Americans. They are scared that they are frank, blast
   corruption/incompetence in MXC, and then get fired when those cables are
   leaked.

   MX1 says that this is a bad thing because it is already difficult to get
   Mexicans to be frank about how much GOM sucks. First you have the
   nationalism issue, then the fact that many just don't like Americans, and
   now the ones that want to be frank are afraid they'll lose their job when
   GOM finds out they said Calderon has his head up his ass and that the
   Consul General is taking money from the Zetas.

   He has not seen any that U.S. diplomats from Juarez consulate wrote and he
   wouldn't have written any himself of course.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Alex Posey\" <alex.posey@stratfor.com>, \"scott stewart\"
   <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>, \"Ben West\" <ben.west@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Saturday, December 4, 2010 8:00:37 AM
   Subject: Re: MX1 concerned about Wikileaks

   He should be concerned.

   On a positive note, I've seen a few names scrubbed out by the Wiki edit
   process, but have no idea who is doing this or their guidance.

   Has he seen any that he has written?

   Marko Papic wrote:
   > I only now managed to talk to MX1 about Wikileaks. He had a lot of
   > interesting insight about the language used by U.S. diplomats and the
   > effect that the leaks are having on his own work and that of his
   > colleagues. One thing he stressed is how unreliable the memos are.
   > From his own experience -- having written hundreds -- the memos
   > exaggerate the importance of information and sources for a reason, the
   > diplomats are trying to justify their own existence and position. He
   > did think some of the U.S. titles were quite ludicrous -- such as the
   > one on cat in Turkmenistan.
   >
   > On a more serious note, MX1 indicated that he is very concerned about
   > the Mexican batch of leaked memos. He said that thus far only 6 have
   > been released, however, in total there are over a thousand.
   > Apparently, there are 19 from Juarez. He knows the American
   > counterparts in the Juarez Consulate very well. In his words, they
   > ended up under a table of quite a few establishments drunk out of
   > their mind together. He worries that the memos these diplomats wrote
   > might cite him. In fact, he thinks that no other Mexican diplomat from
   > El Paso consulate made the effort as much as he did to reach out to
   > the Americans across the Rio in Juarez.
   >
   > He is not worried about any actual intel being leaked. He says he
   > didn't leak any Mexican national secrets. The problem is that one of
   > the American diplomats may have cited a conversation they had and said
   > something like \"subject looked nervous\" or \"subject is highly doubtful
   > of GOM ability to do X\" and get him into trouble. He has a policy of
   > being as frank as possible with American law enforcement and diplomats
   > and it could very well come out that he was blasting GOM in one of the
   > memos. Knowing how Mexicans are when it comes to national criticism
   > (not very good) he may get fucked.
   >
   > I told him not to sweat it. We always need interns. ;)
   >
   >
   > --
   >
   > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
   >
   > Marko Papic
   >
   > Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
   >
   > STRATFOR
   >
   > 700 Lavaca Street - 900
   >
   > Austin, Texas
   >
   > 78701 USA
   >
   > P: + 1-512-744-4094
   >
   > marko.papic@stratfor.com
   >

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-12-05 19:44:48",1,"2012-03-03 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/378182_re-mx1-concerned-about-wikileaks-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","scott.stewart@stratfor.com,marko.papic@stratfor.com,ben.west@stratfor.com,alex.posey@stratfor.com",""
379052,"Fw: [CT] Former Turk intel guy says Gulen is CIA front--in Central Asia
","   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Thu, 06 Jan 2011 17:19:32 -0600
   To: CT AOR<ct@stratfor.com>; mesa<mesa@stratfor.com>; EurAsia
   Team<eurasia@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [CT] Former Turk intel guy says Gulen is CIA front--in Central
   Asia
   *No idea who this guy is, but this is at least pretty entertaining. It's
   interesting that Baer admits the CIA hadn't recruited any 'agents' in Kyrg
   and Uzb in the '90s, unless he is mocking the use of the word 'agent'
   instead of 'officer.'

   Posted at 5:08 PM ET, 01/ 5/2011
   Islamic group is CIA front, ex-Turkish intel chief says
   http://voices.washingtonpost.com/spy-talk/2011/01/islamic_group_is_cia_front_ex-.html
   By Jeff Stein

   A memoir by a top former Turkish intelligence official claims that a
   worldwide moderate Islamic movement based in Pennsylvania has been
   providing cover for the CIA since the mid-1990s.

   The memoir, roughly rendered in English as \"Witness to Revolution and Near
   Anarchy,\" by retired Turkish intelligence official Osman Nuri Gundes, says
   the religious-tolerance movement, led by an influential former Turkish
   imam by the name of Fethullah Gulen, has 600 schools and 4 million
   followers around the world.

   In the 1990s, Gundes alleges, the movement \"sheltered 130 CIA agents\" at
   its schools in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan alone, according to a report on
   his memoir Wednesday by the Paris-based Intelligence Online newsletter.

   The book has caused a sensation in Turkey since it was published last
   month.

   Gulen could not be reached for comment.

   But two ex-CIA officials with long ties to Central Asia cast doubt on
   Gundes's charges.
   Former CIA operative Robert Baer, chief of the agency's Central Asia and
   Caucasus operations from 1995 through 1997, called the allegations bogus.
   \"The CIA didn't have any `agents' in Central Asia during my tenure,\" he
   said.

   It's possible, Baer granted, that the CIA \"turned around this ship after I
   left,\" but only the spy agency could say for sure, and the CIA does not
   comment on operational sources and methods.

   A U.S. intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity, also
   said Gundes's \"accounts are ringing no bells whatsoever.\"

   Likewise, Graham Fuller, a former CIA station chief in Kabul and author of
   \"The Future of Political Islam,\" threw cold water on Gundes's allegations
   about Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.

   \"I think the story of 130 CIA agents in Gulen schools in Central Asia is
   pretty wild,\" Fuller said by e-mail.

   \"I should hasten to add that I left CIA in 1987 -- nearly 25 years ago --
   and I have absolutely no concrete personal knowledge whatsoever about
   this. But my instincts tell me the claim is highly improbable.\"

   Fuller added, \"I cannot even imagine trying to credibly sell such a scheme
   with a straight face within the agency. As for Nuri Gundes, I am not aware
   of who he is or what he has written. But there is a lot of wild stuff
   floating around in Turkey on these issues and Gulen is a real hot button
   issue.\"

   Imam Gulen, \"whose views are usually close to U.S. policy,\" according to
   Intelligence Online,[for real?] favors toleration of all religions,
   putting his movement in direct competition with al-Qaeda and other radical
   groups for the affection of Muslims across Central Asia, the Middle East
   and even Europe and Africa, where it has also expanded its reach.

   Gundes, who was Istanbul station chief for Turkey's MIT intelligence
   agency, \"personally supervised several investigations into Gulen's
   movement in the 1990s,\" according to the newsletter's report on his
   memoir, which has not been translated into English. The purpose of
   Gundes's investigation was not immediately clear. His own religious views
   could not be determined, but the influence of radical Islamist forces in
   Turkey swelled in the 1990s.

   The imam left Turkey in 1998 and settled in Saylorsburg, Pa., where the
   movement is headquartered. According to Intelligence Online, he obtained a
   residence permit only in 2008 with the help of Fuller and George Fidas,
   whom it described as head of the agency's outreach to universities.

   Fuller says that's wrong.

   \"I did not recommend him for a residence permit or anything else. As for
   George Fidas, I have never even heard of him and don't know who he is.\"

   \"What I did do,\" Fuller explained, \"was write a letter to the FBI in early
   2006 ...at a time when Gulen's enemies were pressing for his extradition
   to Turkey from the U.S. In the post 9/11 environment, they began spreading
   the word that he was a dangerous radical. In my statement to the FBI I
   offered my views...that I did not believe he posed a security threat of
   any kind to the U.S. I still believe that today, as do a large body of
   scholars on contemporary Islam.

   \"I do not at all consider Gulen a radical or dangerous.\" Fuller continued.
   \"Indeed in my view--and I have studied a lot of Islamist movements
   worldwide--his movement is perhaps one of the most encouraging in terms of
   the evolution of contemporary Islamic political and social thinking...\"

   Fidas could not be reached for comment, nor would the CIA answer questions
   about him. George Washington University's Elliot School of International
   Affairs lists him as a visiting professor and \"Director for Outreach in
   the Office of the Assistant Director of Central Intelligence for Analysis
   and Production.\"

   But the title was abolished when the Directorate of National Intelligence
   was created several years ago, an informed source said.
   2011
   01
   05
   17
   08

   By Jeff Stein  | January 5, 2011; 5:08 PM ET

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2011-01-07 00:28:58",1,"2012-03-07 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/379052_fw-ct-former-turk-intel-guy-says-gulen-is-cia-front-in.html","burton@stratfor.com","","jh@hornfischerlit.com",""
379356,"Re: WikiLeaks plans 'major' announcement within hours as Pentagon bracesfor massive Iraq war leak
","   DOD and DHS are the problem.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: James Casey <jimcasey58@aol.com>
   Date: Fri, 22 Oct 2010 14:39:34 -0400
   To: <burton@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: WikiLeaks plans 'major' announcement within hours as Pentagon
   braces for massive Iraq war leak
   This is why...........even though the FBI is always the first to be
   criticized for not playing nice-nice in the sandbox.............the
   concept of \"widely sharing of information\" is not always a great idea. 
   For a number of years I have used the very example of \"a slick sleeved
   private, siting in a tent in Baghdad, looking at thousands of classified
   reports on SIPRNET\", as a bad way to business.  Even I didn't think that
   was going to be the exact scenario that has played out with this WikiLeaks
   fiasco.  Maybe everybody at the DNI and DHS who have been pimping the
   \"share by rule, withhold by exception,\" concept for the last nine years
   will change their tune a little, and acknowledge that \"need to know\" is
   still a valuable idea. 

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: 'James Casey' <jimcasey58@aol.com>
   Sent: Fri, Oct 22, 2010 1:16 pm
   Subject: FW: WikiLeaks plans 'major' announcement within hours as Pentagon
   braces for massive Iraq war leak

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, October 22, 2010 12:15 PM
   To: 'Tactical'
   Subject: WikiLeaks plans 'major' announcement within hours as Pentagon
   braces for massive Iraq war leak
   By PAULINE JELINEK and RAPHAEL G. SATTER Associated Press Writers
   LONDON - The WikiLeaks website is poised to release what the Pentagon
   fears is the largest cache of secret U.S. documents in history - hundreds
   of thousands of intelligence reports that could amount to a classified
   history of the war in Iraq.
   U.S. officials said Friday they were racing to contain the damage from the
   imminent release, while NATO's top official told reporters he feared that
   lives could be put at risk by the mammoth disclosure.
   NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen said any release would create \"a very
   unfortunate situation.\"
   \"I can't comment on the details of the exact impact on security, but in
   general I can tell you that such leaks ... may have a very negative
   security impact for people involved,\" he told reporters Friday in Berlin
   following a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
   In a posting to Twitter, the secret-spilling website said there would be a
   \"major WikiLeaks announcement in Europe\" at 0900 GMT (5 a.m.
   EDT) Saturday. The group has revealed almost nothing publicly about the
   nature of the announcement.
   Meanwhile, a team of more than a hundred analysts from across the U.S.
   military, led by the Defense Intelligence Agency, has been combing through
   the Iraq documents they think will be released in anticipation of the
   leak.
   Called the Information Review Task Force, its analysts have pored over the
   documents and used word searches to try to pull out names and other issues
   that would be particularly sensitive, officials have said.
   The task force has informed U.S. Central Command of some of the names of
   Iraqis and allies and other information they believe might be released
   that could present a danger, officials have said, noting that - unlike the
   WikiLeaks previous disclosure of some 77,000 documents from Afghanistan -
   in this case they had advance notice that names may be exposed.
   Once officials see what is publicly released, the command \"can quickly
   push the information down\" to forces in Iraq, Marine Corps Col.
   Dave Lapan, a Defense Department spokesman, said Friday in Washington.
   \"Centcom can jump into action and take whatever mitigating steps\"
   might be needed, Lapan said.
   While the latest WikiLeaks revelations may not change public perceptions
   of the Iraq war - it has been extremely unpopular in Europe and divides
   opinion in the United States - they could provide new insight about a
   conflict that seemed headed for success after the invasion in 2003 before
   descending into a yearslong, blood-soaked struggle.
   The documents could shed light on the root causes of the insurgency, for
   instance, or the growth of sectarian violence that blighted Baghdad and
   other Iraqi cities. It may also give a behind-the-scenes glimpse at some
   of the major episodes of the war - like the manhunt for insurgent chief
   Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, or the killing of U.S. security contractors on March
   31, 2004, by a mob in Fallujah, an incident which ultimately led to the
   U.S. assault on the Iraqi city.
   Wikileaks' previous release in July of secret war documents from Iraq and
   Afghanistan outraged the Pentagon, which accused the group of being
   irresponsible. Fogh Rasmussen said Friday that leaks of this nature \"may
   put soldiers as well as civilians at risk.\"
   It appears that those fears - which the military has invoked in its appeal
   to WikiLeaks and the media not to publish the documents - have yet to
   materialize. A Pentagon letter obtained by The Associated Press reported
   that no U.S. intelligence sources or practices were compromised by the
   Afghan war logs' disclosure.
   Still, the military feels any classified documents release can harm
   national security and raise fears for people who might consider
   cooperating with the U.S. in the future, Lapan said.
   Ryan Crocker, U.S. ambassador to Iraq from 2007-08, said the disclosures
   would be more worrisome if the U.S. were still fully engaged in combat in
   Iraq - but he still sees it as a major problem.
   \"I'd really be worried if - as looks to be the case - you have Iraqi
   political figures named in a context or a connection that can make them
   politically and physically vulnerable to their adversaries,\" he told a
   conference Friday at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in
   Washington.
   \"That has an utterly chilling effect on the willingness of political
   figures to talk to us - not just in Iraq but anywhere in the world,\" he
   said.
   ___
   Jelinek reported from Washington. National Security Writer Robert Burns in
   Washington and Associated Press Writer Melissa Eddy in Berlin contributed
   to this report.


   No virus found in this incoming message.
   Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
   Version: 9.0.862 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3212 - Release Date: 10/22/10
   01:34:00
","2010-10-22 21:15:37",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/379356_re-wikileaks-plans-major-announcement-within-hours-as.html","burton@stratfor.com","","jimcasey58@aol.com",""
380329,"RE: [TACTICAL] Ali Mohammadi
","   Actually, it all tracks very well with what we already published.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, January 25, 2010 3:31 PM
   To: Alex Posey
   Cc: Fred Burton; TACTICAL; secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: Re: [TACTICAL] Ali Mohammadi
   are we publishing this info?
   On Jan 25, 2010, at 2:23 PM, Alex Posey wrote:

     He thinks A-dogg's camp had him whacked and thinks HZ operatives did
     it.  Hence the comment about the pic of Abu Nasser at the bomb scene.

     Fred Burton wrote:

 The Prof believes he was killed by Iranian security/intel?

 Meaning, an Iranian govt sanctioned assassination inside Iran?

 Alex Posey wrote:
  

 Prof thinks Iranians killed him to send a message to Academia to chill
 out and because it was easy to blame it on the West

 Fred Burton wrote:
    

 Who killed him?

 Alex Posey wrote:
  
      

 Spoke with a former colleague of Masoud Ali Mohammadi and who is
 currently a Physics professor at Chapman University outside of L.A.  He
 definitely had an agenda and was very long winded in his responses.

 Attached is the document he prepared for me over the weekend that has
 photos of Ali Mohammadi, photo of memorial outside his office at Tehran
 University as well as his funeral procession.  The document also had
 copies of the letter Ali Mohammadi wrote to the President of Tehran
 University asking him to condemn the raids on the student's dorms after
 the election by the Basijis and Police, copy of a statement of
 clarification of Ali Mohammadi's field of interest by his colleagues at
 Tehran University, as well as a letter from the American Physical
 Society expressing its condolences to the Physics Society of Iran.

 Last saw Ali Mohammadi in 1995 in Iran but kept up email contact up
 until about year ago, but has been in contact with several of his
 students and other Iranian friends after Ali Mohammadi's death.
 -----------------------------------------------
 Forgive the jumpiness, but the Prof was all over the place.

 >From our convo:

 Ali Mohammadi's area of expertise was in Dark Energy and string theory.
 NOT in anything that was remotely related to nuclear physics.  Pointed
 out that Iran Atomic Energy Organization came out and stated that Ali
 Mohammadi had never worked them.

 Ali Mohammadi gave an approximate 70 min (has a recording but hasn't
 sent it to me) talk about the current political unrest in Iran at a
 weekly kind of open forum at Tehran University, where people give talks
 about a variety of subjects, on Jan. 5 - a week before his death.  Ali
 Mohammadi was invited to talk about the political unrest, but was warned
 not to go (wouldn't say by whom).  Ali Mohammadi talked about how
 regardless if the elections was fair or not there was significant
 section of the Iranian nation that was upset with the current
 administration and that the regime need not ignore the sector of Iranian
 society but address their concerns.   Ali Mohammadi was asked combative
 and challenging questions by A-dogg supporters in the audience.  Ali
 Mohammadi wanted to answer these questions in next weeks talk with
 larger audience.  End of recording.

 During his early years (1980s) Ali Mohammadi was not active in politics
 (not party of 1979 revolution like previously thought, according to
 prof).  Ali Mohammadi was in the first class of physics PhD students in
 Iran at Shiraz University in 1981, and he chose to state to show that
 Iran was capable of producing world class physicists without having to
 go abroad for an education - indicative of his nationalism.  There were
 four in his class and he was the first to graduate.  One of the other
 three in his class ended up being a parliament member who ended up
 writing on his blog about Ali Mohammadi's death (sympathetic and worried).

 Ali Mohammadi was a true believer of the system, but when A-dogg came to
 power he began to lose faith in the system and started to become more
 politically active.  Ali Mohammadi started to become really active about
 three years ago and would gather students for rallies.

 Activity outside of Iran:

 Ali Mohammadi was very active outside of Iran, particularly with the
 SESAME project (Synchrotron-light for Experimental Science and
 Applications in the Middle East).  He was the Iranian representative in
 the project and routinely interacted with many western scientists
 (http://www.sesame.org.jo/Council/CouncilMembers.aspx).

 Side Convo:

 On a side note.  Several of the people the Prof speaks to in Iran are
 saying that Hezbollah operatives have been transferred to Iran after the
 elections and are being used to crack down on the opposition.  Prof said
 that he has a picture of Abu Nasser at the bomb scene of Ali Mohammadi
 that was posted on FARS but was quickly taken down.  I have asked for it
 but has yet to send it to me.




 --
 Alex Posey
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 alex.posey@stratfor.com


 ------------------------------------------------------------------------

    
        

 --
 Alex Posey
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 alex.posey@stratfor.com

    

 --
 Alex Posey
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 alex.posey@stratfor.com
","2010-01-25 21:34:09",1,"2012-03-06 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/380329_re-tactical-ali-mohammadi-.html","scott.stewart@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,alex.posey@stratfor.com,tactical@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
380431,"RE: More on Ali Mohammadi
","It is noisy spectacular, draws tons of attention and gives the MOIS and
Sepah a major excuse to root out all the Zionist spies causing such wanton
destruction in the very heart of the revolutionary city of Iran. (Also
scares the crap out of all the other dissidents.) 

 

-----Original Message-----
From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Tuesday, January 26, 2010 5:43 PM
To: scott stewart; Alex Posey; secure@stratfor.com; Tactical
Subject: Re: More on Ali Mohammadi

And a bomb doesn't?

------Original Message------
From: scott stewart
To: Fred
To: Alex Posey
To: secure@stratfor.com
To: Tactical
Subject: RE: More on Ali Mohammadi
Sent: Jan 26, 2010 4:34 PM

Shooter could be seen and would leave ballistic evidence, also would not
draw much attention. Too quiet. 

This was a spectacular, evil Jewish terrorist attack against the Iranian
heartland. 

Better stamp out the menace hard. 
 

-----Original Message-----
From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, January 26, 2010 5:23 PM
To: Alex Posey; secure@stratfor.com; Tactical
Subject: Re: More on Ali Mohammadi

Awful lot of trouble to whack a guy when you can shoot him in the back of
the head and still blame our lovely Israeli allies.  

By bomb makes little sense.  

Only Stick or George would think of that.  I would prefer to torture then
shoot.  Better chance of success.

His old lady could have pulled out that morning to buy goats milk or pita.

------Original Message------
From: Alex Posey
To: secure@stratfor.com
To: Tactical
Subject: More on Ali Mohammadi
Sent: Jan 26, 2010 4:05 PM

Not sure we had seen this before/
--------------------------------------------------------------

Alex,

You might be interested in the following report from the The Green Path
Movement:

Dr. Ali-Mohammadi?s House Raided Prior to His Assassination  One day before
his assassination, Professor Ali-Mohammadi?s house was raided by Ministry of
Information agents. Also, his documents were reportedly confiscated.
Moreover, two weeks prior to his assassination the professor resigned from
all responsibilities of cooperating with nuclear organizations.
Following his assassination, the professor?s family was threatened by
intelligence agents in order to prevent the possibility of news circulating
about the raid on the house.
There were numerous intelligence agents present at the scene, even during
the memorial service.
Dr. Ali-Mohammadi, a prominent university professor who supported the Green
Movement, was assassinated on January 12, 2010 by a remote-controlled bomb
that went off at the front of his house in northern Tehran.

Regards,

XXXXXXX

--
Alex Posey
Tactical Analyst
STRATFOR
alex.posey@stratfor.com



Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T



Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2010-01-27 00:14:54",1,"2012-03-06 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/380431_re-more-on-ali-mohammadi-.html","scott.stewart@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,alex.posey@stratfor.com,tactical@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
380540,"Re: On Bruno
","   Fred,

   You are very welcome, this research took me back to the good days, and I
   really enjoyed doing it.

   I started conducting a social media research on the subject and identified
   an individual connected to Bruno. His name is Ute Mu:lle. Ute is a German
   living in Switzerland with connections to Hammas* leadership in Syria and
   Gaza.

   I would like to gather more information on the subject from public sources
   before I approach any official intel sources. This is mostly because I*m
   afraid that someone will start wondering about my interest on the subject
   and I want to make sure that we don*t step on any toes.

   I will keep you informed on the research. Good luck in NY this week, I
   wish I could join your presentation there but I have to be in Dallas this
   week.

   Best regards.

   David

   On Fri, Jun 17, 2011 at 1:50 PM, Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com> wrote:

     Fact is much stranger then fiction my friend.  Where is Bruno or his
     daughter now?  Thanks very much for the efforts. 
     On 6/17/2011 1:06 PM, David Dafinoiu wrote:

       Hello Fred,

        

       I called few former colleagues that I worked with in Germany and
       Eastern Europe and also pulled out some private information I have on
       Bruno. I also confirmed few details with public source information.

        

       Bruno*s (code name *Luca*) last known trip started on November 11,
       1995, with his girlfriend and their daughter Shona, 2 years old, when
       they boarded a ferry in the Greek port of Igoumenitsa on their way to
       Ancona, Italy, which was an approx 15 hours trip.  Arrived at Ancona,
       where the Italian customs were informed about Bruno*s presence on the
       ferry, and being on the Italian intelligence red list as *persona non
       grata*, he was separated from his girlfriend and his daughter, and
       sent back with the ferry to Igoumenitsa.

        

       The Italians were warned of Bruno*s presence on the ferry by the Greek
       police. The Greek secret service waited for him back in Igoumenitsa to
       pick him up. Apparently the Greeks were acting on behalf of French
       authorities now. He was living part of the year in Perdika, a small
       Greek village not far from Igoumenitsa, with the knowledge and the
       protection of the country*s secret service since 1994. After Carlos
       was arrested, Bruno was spending the time between Greece, Italy and
       Austria. Bruno*s problems started when the Greeks and the French found
       out that he was a double agent.

        

       While the Greeks were waiting to pick him up at the port, an Israeli
       Navy commando team accompanied by a war ship and a helicopter, that
       had a mission close to Cyprus, were sent after Bruno to extract him
       before the he gets in the port. He was picked up 17 minutes before the
       ferry arrived in the port of Igoumenitsa.

  After the mysterious disappearing there were rumors that it was a special
  operation supported by NATO naval forces, which is not true. There were few
  individuals in European ports at that time presenting themselves as NATO
  officers, but they were Mossad and US Navy Intel. Mossad officers with
  European citizenship posed as 'NATO officials' in many other previous missions
  around the world, including the Middle East.

       Another version was that Bruno was abducted by the Greek secret
       service in an operation of thugs linked to the case of Carlos and
       sponsored by Paris.

        

       Another version was that Bruno was hiding in the ferry out of fear* a
       non-sense version since the Greek secret service searched the ferry in
       the port. The rumors about his dead body being in Greece were based on
       the fact that he never contacted his family after the disappearing.

       Back in 1994, four Swiss terrorists were arrested and detained for
       several weeks by the Department General of Switzerland because they
       were suspected of belonging to what Stasi used to call \"Separat\", the
       code name for the Carlos Group. Their names were passed to the
       Hungarian secret services by Bruno during one of his trips to Austria.
       The Hungarians passed the names to the Swiss.

       The US intelligence community had good relationship with the
       Hungarians in 1995, where the Americans had few secret bases. After
       the delivery of Bruno by the Israelis to the Americans (I*m not sure
       about the agency, but it could be the Navy intelligence) in a friendly
       port, Bruno was taken to Hungary. I just learned that Bruno left
       Budapest, Hungary under a new identity at the end of 1997 to South
       America. The most likely destination was Cuba.

       An evidence that he was still alive in 1996 was the fact that his
       initial patron, the Swiss Nazi Francois Genoud, was looking for him
       too. Francois had the information on Bruno*s possible locations from
       one or more ex-Stasi officers with connections in the Hungarian secret
       service. Genoud also had ties to UBL that was looking after Bruno in
       Arab countries. Much of bin Laden group's international activities
       took place in the Geneva offices of Saudi Investment Company, managed
       by board members that included Baudoin Dunant, who represented
       Francois Genoud when he was on trial for participation in
       international terrorism.

       The CIA and the Israelis tried to take Genoud out in October 1993 when
       he escaped a Mossad assassination attempt at his home in Switzerland.
       Since then he became aware that the Israelis were closing in on him.

       I arrived in Budapest in May 1996, but never heard about Bruno after
       the mission in the Mediterranean. In the next few days I left Budapest
       to Switzerland via Austria and Germany. I*m not sure if Genoud knew
       about Bruno*s location, even if he was well connected in the CIA. I*m
       not even sure that the CIA knew Bruno*s location. I just learned that
       in June 1997 he was still in the Hungarian secret service custody.  

        

       However, Genoud died few days later on May 30, 1996 when he just
       returned from a restaurant to his home town on Lake Lausanne. This
       time he was poisoned for real and died immediately. The media reported
       that his friends and relatives accompanied him back to his house,
       where one of his lunch companions prepared him a lethal cocktail per
       Genoud requests. At least this time the Mossad was not accused for the
       assassination :)

       If it is true that Bruno left to Cuba in 1997 and is still alive, then
       he should be 62 years old today. His daughter, Shona, should be 18
       years old.

       I*ll continue investigating the case and keep you informed.

       Best regards,

       David

       On Wed, Jun 15, 2011 at 5:03 PM, Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
       wrote:

         Yes in deed.  Most interested.  I don't think we grabbed him because
         that was on my watch. 
         On 6/15/2011 2:39 PM, David Dafinoiu wrote:

           On the contrary to what many people believe, Mossad is not
           assasinating people that easy. Even the most recent incident in
           Dubai was an accident, they tried to bring the victim to Israel
           and exchange him with the Israeli soldier in Iranian's custody.

           Bruno was picked up by an Israeli navy commando and brought to a
           friendly port in the Medditeranean. There he was picked up by a
           team with two white vans to an unknown destination. The agents
           were americans. There were rummors that he was taken to a CIA
           secret site and he died during the interogation. I personally 
           believe that he is living under a new identity somewhere in South
           America. I left the Navy in 96 and have not heard about him since
           then. I can try to find out more on him if you are interested.

           Best regards, David

           Sent from my NorAm portable Galaxy(c)

           David Dafinoiu
           President

           NorAm Intelligence

           Mobile: 646-678-2905
           david@dafinoiu.com
           dd@noramintel.com
           http://noramintel.com

           On Jun 15, 2011 1:48 PM, \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
           wrote:

       --
       Cordially,
        
       David Dafinoiu
       President
       NorAm Intelligence
       Mobile: 646-678-2905
       david@dafinoiu.com
       dd@noramintel.com
       http://noramintel.com
        
       
       The information contained in this facsimile or electronic message is
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   --
   Cordially,
    
   David Dafinoiu
   President
   NorAm Intelligence
   Mobile: 646-678-2905
   david@dafinoiu.com
   dd@noramintel.com
   http://noramintel.com
    
   
   The information contained in this facsimile or electronic message is
   confidential information intended for the use of the individual or entity
   named above. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient,
   or an employee or agent responsible for delivering this message to the
   intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, or
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","2011-06-19 22:38:29",1,"2012-03-12 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/380540_re-on-bruno-.html","david@dafinoiu.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
380738,"RE: more lies
","We need to list strictly work-related things, not fantasies about her
personal life. 

-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Tuesday, February 09, 2010 10:17 PM
To: scott stewart
Cc: 'korena zucha'; 'Anya Alfano'
Subject: Re: more lies

It's all work related, to include lying to the entire staff.

scott stewart wrote:
> We need to focus on the work-related stuff.  
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
> Sent: Tuesday, February 09, 2010 10:07 PM
> To: scott stewart; 'korena zucha'; Anya Alfano
> Subject: more lies
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
","2010-02-10 04:33:39",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/380738_re-more-lies-.html","scott.stewart@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,anya.alfano@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
380848,"Re: Reuters media query --wikileaks
","   The release of the material in the first place, but this is what nations
   do. Rule number one in this business: There are no friendly intelligence
   services.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: <Peter.Apps@thomsonreuters.com>
   Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2010 20:02:31 +0000
   To: <burton@stratfor.com>; <kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com>
   Subject: RE: Reuters media query --wikileaks

   Any thoughts on what the most serious part of the information released so
   far is? The encouraging diplomats to spy, the Saudi/Iran material or
   simply the release of the data in the first place?

    

   From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: 28 November 2010 19:38
   To: Apps, Peter M. (M Edit Ops); Kyle Rhodes
   Subject: Re: Reuters media query --wikileaks

    

   Serious

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: <Peter.Apps@thomsonreuters.com>

   Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2010 19:31:52 +0000

   To: <burton@stratfor.com>; <kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com>

   Subject: RE: Reuters media query --wikileaks

    

   Serious damage control or manageable damage control?

    

   From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: 28 November 2010 19:23
   To: Apps, Peter M. (M Edit Ops); Kyle Rhodes
   Subject: Re: Reuters media query --wikileaks

    

   Peter,

   It becomes damage control for Foggy Bottom to manage and presents foreign
   intelligence liaison issues.

   Fred

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: <Peter.Apps@thomsonreuters.com>

   Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2010 18:41:33 +0000

   To: <kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com>; <burton@stratfor.com>

   Subject: Reuters media query --wikileaks

    

   Hi Fred,

    

   Wondering if you have any quick thoughts on wiki leaks -- at least, what
   we've seen so far. Anything earthshattering? Or is the real impact going
   to be the way in which diplomats are more circumspect in the indications
   from now on? Strikes me that one of the lessons of this is how much easier
   the information age has made it to steal gigantic quantities of
   information in one go...

    

   Any thoughts greatly received,

    

   Peter

    

   Peter Apps

   Political Risk Correspondent

   Reuters News

    

   Thomson Reuters

    

   Direct line: +44 20 7542 0262

   Mobile: +44 7990 560586

   E-mail: peter.apps@thomsonreuters.com

    

   This email was sent to you by Thomson Reuters, the global news and
   information company.
   Any views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender,
   except where the sender specifically states them to be the views of
   Thomson Reuters.

   This email was sent to you by Thomson Reuters, the global news and
   information company.
   Any views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender,
   except where the sender specifically states them to be the views of
   Thomson Reuters.

   This email was sent to you by Thomson Reuters, the global news and
   information company.
   Any views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender,
   except where the sender specifically states them to be the views of
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","2010-11-28 21:12:33",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/380848_re-reuters-media-query-wikileaks-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com,Peter.Apps@thomsonreuters.com",""
381032,"Fw:
","
------Original Message------
From: George Friedman
To: Scott Stewart
To: 'George Friedman'
To: Fred Burton
ReplyTo: friedman@att.blackberry.net
Subject: Re:
Sent: Jan 28, 2010 4:47 PM

We could try but it wouldn't work. 

Not worried about the blowback as much as you guys are. This will mature the team when it blows. A lot more care will emerge. 
------Original Message------
From: scott stewart
To: 'George Friedman'
To: Fred Burton
Subject: RE:
Sent: Jan 28, 2010 4:23 PM

Copy. Is there any way we can begin to separate here from the rest of the
company? Cause her to  do her projects on her own from home?



Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2010-01-29 00:17:37",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/381032_fw-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","anya.alfano@stratfor.com,zucha@stratfor.com",""
381527,"XXX
","Any update on The Lord of Dripping Springs?

Daddy G told me yesterday he's figuring out a way to make her disappear.  

How?  He has no idea.

She was holding court yesterday per Stick.

G also briefed Peter and told him to stay mum.


Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2010-01-15 20:21:22",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/381527_xxx-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","anya.alfano@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
382150,"Re: Info - Another MOSSAD Intelligence Operation  ** internal useonly - pls do not forward **
","   Back in the day, the Agency were in just about every major MNC with
   international operations. Today, I know one.

   How many Chinese or Israeli companies have plants?
   Oh about 90 percent.

   Who is swirling around the intel bowl?

   Er...the one who holds birthday parties for double agents because we have
   none.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 25 Mar 2010 17:30:02 -0500
   To: Fred Burton<burton@stratfor.com>
   Cc: 'Secure List'<secure@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: Info - Another MOSSAD Intelligence Operation ** internal use
   only - pls do not forward **
   And why wouldn't the Chinese (especially) or Americans doing this too?

   Fred Burton wrote:

     Business intelligence. 
      
     There is a MOSSAD operative under business cover stealing other
     companies secrets from this group. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Sean Noonan [mailto:sean.noonan@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Thursday, March 25, 2010 5:27 PM
     To: Fred Burton
     Cc: 'Secure List'
     Subject: Re: Info - Another MOSSAD Intelligence Operation ** internal
     use only - pls do not forward **
     I'll look into this a little more, but I would find it hard to believe
     that a number of other agencies haven't also infiltrated it. 

     Fred Burton wrote:

       http://www.scip.org/
        
       According to the FBI (not for attribution) the MOSSAD has infiltrated
       this organziation.   
        

                                   About SCIP

       The Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals (SCIP) is a
       global nonprofit membership organization for everyone involved in
       creating and managing business knowledge. Our mission is to enhance
       the success of our members through leadership, education, advocacy,
       and networking.

       Specifically, SCIP provides education and networking opportunities for
       business professionals working in the rapidly growing field of
       competitive intelligence (the legal and ethical collection and
       analysis of information regarding the capabilities, vulnerabilities,
       and intentions of business competitors). Many SCIP members have
       backgrounds in market research, strategic analysis, or science and
       technology.

       Established in 1986, today SCIP has chapters around the world, with
       individual members in nations around the globe. In addition, SCIP has
       alliance partnerships with independent affiliate organizations in many
       countries.

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-03-25 23:45:39",1,"2012-03-15 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/382150_re-info-another-mossad-intelligence-operation-internal.html","burton@stratfor.com","","sean.noonan@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
382246,"Fw: [CT] [OS] GREECE/US/CT - Greek police match launcher used inUSembassy hit
","     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2010 13:23:21 +0000
   To: CT AOR<ct@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [CT] [OS] GREECE/US/CT - Greek police match launcher used in
   USembassy hit
   The chances the Greeks did this on their own are slim. We probably matched
   the forensics and letting them claim credit.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Wilson <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2010 08:20:12 -0500
   To: <ct@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [CT] [OS] GREECE/US/CT - Greek police match launcher used in
   US embassy hit

   Zack Dunnam wrote:

     Greek police match launcher used in US embassy hit
     Friday, June 18, 2010; 8:31 AM

     http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/18/AR2010061802223.html

     ATHENS, Greece -- Greek police say a rocket-propelled grenade launcher
     found in a suspected radical hideout was used against the U.S. embassy
     in Athens three years ago.

     A far-left group called Revolutionary Struggle claimed the audacious
     Jan. 2007 attack on Greece's most heavily guarded foreign embassy, which
     caused no injuries and minor damage.

     Police arrested six suspected group members in April, and seized what is
     believed to have been Revolutionary Struggle's main arsenal in an Athens
     flat. The haul included the launcher, RPGs, firearms and explosives.

     A police statement Friday said laboratory tests have confirmed the
     launcher was used against the embassy.

     The six suspects, all self-declared anarchists, have been charged with
     terrorism and attempted murder.
","2010-06-18 15:25:15",1,"2012-03-03 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/382246_fw-ct-os-greece-us-ct-greek-police-match-launcher-used.html","burton@stratfor.com","","PosillicoM2@state.gov",""
382437,"Re: Comrade J on Polish Plane Crash
","   I don't know how he knows, but WITSEC had him in DC to meet with foreign
   intelligence officers during the nuclear summit.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 22 Apr 2010 20:50:03 -0400
   To: burton@stratfor.com<burton@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Marko Papic<marko.papic@stratfor.com>; Secure
   List<secure@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: Comrade J on Polish Plane Crash
   Comrade J still has the ability to communicate with ppl who would know
   something like that..?

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Apr 22, 2010, at 8:16 PM, \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com> wrote:

     Interesting

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Marko Papic <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
     Date: Thu, 22 Apr 2010 16:55:53 -0600
     To: Fred Burton<burton@stratfor.com>
     Cc: 'Secure List'<secure@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: Comrade J on Polish Plane Crash
     This was actually one of the theories that one of my contacts also gave
     me. But the intention was not to kill Kacynzki, just make his life
     difficult by forcing him to land in Minsk and therefore miss the Katyn
     Massacre ceremonies set to begin in an hour from landing. But instead,
     the pilots tried to land anyways and crashed the flight.

     Fred Burton wrote:

       The Russians purposefully denied the aircraft the ability to land
       knowing that the Polish President would either force the pilot to land
       based upon their own leadership analysis collection of the President's
       m.o.; or the plane would return and not land at the location. 
        
       He claims purposeful act.  His words not mine. 
        
       Reportedly, the Russians have similar plans (scenarios) for other
       foreign leaders that can be pulled off the shelf if desired by
       Putin/FSB.
        
       Follow up questions welcomed. 
        
        
        
        

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-04-23 03:11:33",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/382437_re-comrade-j-on-polish-plane-crash-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,marko.papic@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
382535,"Comrade J
","Confirmed the KGB hit on Zia.
","2010-04-03 01:45:19",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/382535_comrade-j-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com",""
383068,"Re: names20
","   I'm gonna turn down future WM work, aint worth the angst

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 16 Apr 2010 17:51:41 -0500 (CDT)
   To: <burton@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: names20
   FYI. Beth told me that GF isn't a fan of doing business with Scott but
   that we wouldn't turn work down just because of that. If we are going to
   do it, and anything really, then we are only going to do it for a good
   price.

   I don't think Scott would have liked that response so I went with the one
   below :)

   Ill flash the work. Anya will start on this next week.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Korena Zucha\" <zucha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Friday, April 16, 2010 5:49:20 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: names20

   Woho, u did pull that answer out of your rear!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 16 Apr 2010 17:34:18 -0500 (CDT)
   To: <burton@stratfor.com>
   Cc: korena zucha<korena.zucha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: names20
   Tell him we pulled both numbers out of our rears! Can say something along
   the lines of this-

   The old pricing was based on an hourly rate, which we no longer use. Our
   pricing model for such reports has increased in particular as these
   projects require dedicated time by our briefers and analysts, which is
   time spent away from our usual daily projects.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: \"korena zucha\" <korena.zucha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Friday, April 16, 2010 3:56:48 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Fw: names20

   ?
   -----Original Message-----
   From: \"Scott McHugh\" <Scott.Mchugh@wal-mart.com>
   Date: Fri, 16 Apr 2010 15:47:31
   To: Fred Burton<burton@stratfor.com>
   Subject: RE: names20

   Fred,
   Use this email as authorization to proceed with the project for both
   candidates with the delivery deadlines noted in the tasking email.

   Just out of curiosity:  why has the price for this service increased so
   much?  The assessment Stratfor conducted for Stephan Fanderal in 2008
   was only $5K and I was curious as to what drove the spike in price?

   Regards
   Scott

   ***All of the terms and conditions enumerated in the Non Disclosure
   Agreement previously signed between Stratfor and WMT remain in effect
   for this project.***    

    

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, April 16, 2010 2:08 PM
   To: Scott McHugh
   Subject: Re: names20

   Scott - From our business folks, let me know, Thanks Fred

   We are capable of completing the reports. Since we no longer use hourly
   rates, the cost of the reports would be $8,000 each. 50 percent of the
   payment for each report would be due upon your written agreement of
   these terms (and the start of our work) while the remaining half would
   be due upon delivery within the deadlines you have given. While we will
   provide you with a formal proposal next Monday for your signature,
   written confirmation of these terms will suffice in the meantime in
   order to get the reports to you by when needed. Please let me know if
   these terms are agreeable as soon as possible.

   Scott McHugh wrote:
   > Fred,
   >
   > Candidate #1 (Need report in @ 2 weeks):  
   >
   > Purpose of the research: We are seeking a check on the candidate from
   a
   > character, integrity, ethics and honesty perspective and also want to
   > gain any available insight into the candidates personality and
   > leadership style to assess whether or not the candidate will be able
   to
   > fit into the Walmart culture.  
   >  
   > Name: PER BANK:
   >
   > Unknown DPOB but based upon the resume it may be Denmark @ 1968
   >
   > Residence: Markskellet 20
   >                      Hilleroed 3400
   >                      Denmark
   > Telephone:  +45 4386 4386
   >
   > Education: University of Odense, Denmark and University of Bournemouth
   > in Bournemouth, UK:  Degree in Manufacturing Engineering (1992)      
   >
   > Currently (since 3/09) Employed by TESCO PLC, Hertfordshiire, UK
   > Previous Employer (2001-2009): COOP DANMARK, Albertslund, Denmark
   > Previous (2001-2001) MASTERFOODS, Copenhagen, Denmark
   > 1998-2000: INWEAR GROUP
   > 1992-1998: DANFOSS
   > 1986-1988: Danish Army- First Lieutenant
   >
   >
   > CANDIDATE # 3 (Need report in @ 3 weeks)
   > Purpose of the research: We are seeking a check on the candidate from
   a
   > character, integrity, ethics and honesty perspective and also want to
   > gain any available insight into the candidates personality and
   > leadership style to assess whether or not the candidate will be able
   to
   > fit into the Walmart culture.
   >
   > Name:        CONROY, Avril M. MCIM        
   > DPOB:        March 30th, 1968, Ireland
   > Status:         Married with 2 children
   > Telephone:        +7916 1754556
   >
   > EDUCATION
   > 1980 - 1986        Our Lady's Bower, Athlone Co. Westmeath, IRELAND
   > *        Intermediate Certificate - 1984
   > *        Leaving Certificate - 1986 (HONORS)
   > *        Kellogg Sales and Marketing 2005
   > *        Insead World Class Leadership 2006
   > *        Full Member of Chartered Institute of Marketing 2009
   >
   > Sept 2008- present Performance Unit Leader Central Russia
   > TNK-Management.
   >
   > Feb 2008- Sept 2008 Director of Brand and Marketing TNK-BP Management.
   >
   > April 2005-Feb 2008 General Director BP Retail Moscow
   >
   > April 2001- 2005 BP Retail Moscow, Operations Manager
   >         
   > June 1998 - Jan 2001  BP Retail Moscow, Shops Network Manager
   >         
   > February 1997 - May 1998  Nesco LTD.  Moscow
   > Nesco was a leading food distributor in Russia and part of the MKS
   group
   > in Cyprus.          
   >         
   > July 1994 - August 1997    Irlasto  plc        Moscow
   >         Irlasto plc is an Irish retailing specialist involved in a
   > number of diversified operations in Moscow.
   >
   > August 1992 - July 1994        Heatons Ltd.        Ireland
   >         Heatons Ltd. is a major Irish retailing chain with twenty shops
   > nationwide, whose principal areas of business are fashion and
   homecare.
   > *        Store Manager with particular responsibility for establishing
   > new outlets.
   >
   > March 1984 - August 1992        Dunnes Stores Ltd.        Ireland
   >
   > -----Original Message-----
   > From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   > Sent: Friday, April 16, 2010 8:09 AM
   > To: Scott McHugh
   > Subject: names
   >
   > Hello Scott,
   >
   > Can I get the names of the two folks we discussed yesterday?
   >
   > Thanks, Fred
   > -----------------------------------------
   > **********************************************************************
   > This email and any files transmitted with it are confidential and
   > intended solely for the individual or entity to whom they are
   > addressed. If you have received this email in error destroy it
   > immediately.
   > **********************************************************************
   > Walmart Confidential
   > **********************************************************************
   >  
","2010-04-17 00:53:18",1,"2012-02-27 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/383068_re-names20-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","zucha@stratfor.com",""
383267,"Re: Athens and Welch killing
","   In a message dated 4/17/2011 1:32:56 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
   burton@stratfor.com writes:

     Scott,

     I've heard from a pretty good Agency source that Welch was set up by an
     Embassy FSN. 

     Have you ever heard that?

     Thanks much, Fred

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

   Fred,
    
   No, and I worked with the task force chasing them.  It was a sub group
   under Mike Freeman...
    
   Scott
","2011-04-23 03:22:51",1,"2012-03-03 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/383267_re-athens-and-welch-killing-.html","Trippsb@aol.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
383383,"R: Bruno Breguet
","Good question. I did some research on it but its still a mystery. let me to=
 reopen my file. best

________________________________________
Da: Fred Burton [burton@stratfor.com]
Inviato: luned=EC 30 maggio 2011 17.40
A: Olimpio Guido
Oggetto: Bruno Breguet

Guido --

Bruno Breguet, a Swiss pro-Palestinian revolutionary, disappeared in
1995 on a ferry from Italy bound for Greece.   He was close to Carlos
the Jackal and Magdalena Kopp.

Who grabbed or killed him?

Thanks, Fred=
","2011-05-30 18:06:51",1,"2012-03-05 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/383383_r-bruno-breguet-.html","GOlimpio@rcs.it","","burton@stratfor.com",""
383433,"Re: On Carlos the Jackal & Wadi Haddad
","   On the contrary to what many people believe, Mossad is not assasinating
   people that easy. Even the most recent incident in Dubai was an accident,
   they tried to bring the victim to Israel and exchange him with the Israeli
   soldier in Iranian's custody.

   Bruno was picked up by an Israeli navy commando and brought to a friendly
   port in the Medditeranean. There he was picked up by a team with two white
   vans to an unknown destination. The agents were americans. There were
   rummors that he was taken to a CIA secret site and he died during the
   interogation. I personally  believe that he is living under a new identity
   somewhere in South America. I left the Navy in 96 and have not heard about
   him since then. I can try to find out more on him if you are interested.

   Best regards, David

   Sent from my NorAm portable Galaxy(c)

   David Dafinoiu
   President

   NorAm Intelligence

   Mobile: 646-678-2905
   david@dafinoiu.com
   dd@noramintel.com
   http://noramintel.com

   On Jun 15, 2011 1:48 PM, \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com> wrote:
","2011-06-15 21:39:00",1,"2012-03-16 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/383433_re-on-carlos-the-jackal-and-wadi-haddad-.html","david@dafinoiu.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
384492,"Re: [DSonlineforum] Alledged Leak of 260,000 Classified and Sensitive State Department Cables
","   Geez...
   What was his motive?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Posillico, Michael\" <PosillicoM2@state.gov>
   Date: Tue, 8 Jun 2010 20:38:23 -0400
   To: <burton@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [DSonlineforum] Alledged Leak of 260,000 Classified and
   Sensitive State Department Cables
   If they were only State documenrs it would not be so bad.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: Posillico, Michael
   Sent: Tue Jun 08 19:35:10 2010
   Subject: Fw: [DSonlineforum] Alledged Leak of 260,000 Classified and
   Sensitive State Department Cables

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Brent Barker <barkerbso@yahoo.com>
   Date: Tue, 8 Jun 2010 16:13:16 -0700 (PDT)
   To: DSonlineforum@yahoogroups.com<DSonlineforum@yahoogroups.com>
   Subject: [DSonlineforum] Alledged Leak of 260,000 Classified and Sensitive
   State Department Cables
    

    
   Mike,
    

   The Pentagon has launched an intensive investigation of a 22-year-old Army
   intelligence analyst named Bradley Manning, who claims to have been the
   source of the video leak earlier this year of the 2007 U.S. helicopter
   attack that killed two Reuters employees in Iraq.

    Manning claims to have downloaded 260,000 diplomatic cables from U.S.
   government computer networks containing classified and embarrassing
   material such as American diplomats' very candid assessments of foreign
   leaders, mainly in the Middle East.

   The LA Times
    
   http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2010/06/oil-spill-cable-spill-secrets.html 
    
   Also in The Daily Beast, entitled \"The State Department's Worst
   Nightmare.\"
    
   http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-06-08/state-department-anxious-about-diplomatic-secrets-bradley-manning-allegedly-downloaded/

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","2010-06-09 02:40:38",1,"2012-02-29 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/384492_re-dsonlineforum-alledged-leak-of-260-000-classified-and.html","burton@stratfor.com","","PosillicoM2@state.gov",""
385135,"STAFF - ICJB coordinators/board
","   Shana Ortman and Claire Rosenfeld are the US coordinators for ICJB.

   http://www.studentsforbhopal.org/node/57
   Advisory Board
   The Students for Bhopal Advisory Board is the national leadership body for
   SfB, representing the North American grassroots supporters of the
   International Campaign for Justice in Bhopal. Composed of approximately 7
   volunteer members as well as the US staff member of ICJB, the Advisory
   Board coordinates the actions, projects, and initiatives undertaken by
   ICJB/SfB in North America.

   Who is on the Advisory Board?
   Shana Blustein Ortman
   U.S. Coordinator, International Campaign for Justice in Bhopal; SfB
   Advisory Board Member
   Shana has worked on social and environmental justice for the past 10
   years, and she is extremely moved and inspired by the struggle for Justice
   in Bhopal.  Before becoming the U.S. Coordinator for ICJB in April 2008,
   she spent nearly four years at ForestEthics, where she was the Lead
   Organizer on the Paper Campaign.  Her work focused on leadership
   development and creating grassroots organizing for a campaign that is
   transforming the catalog industry and protecting Endangered Forests. Most
   notably, in 2006, they won the Victoria's Dirty Secret campaign, a three
   year campaign that included over 750 grassroots actions across North
   America.  Shana got her B.A. in Humanities, with a focus on Children's
   Literature and Social Change from New College of California in 2005.  She
   also spent two years studying Anthropology at Grinnell College, where she
   was very involved with student activism for environmental justice and
   human rights.   

   Claire Rosenfeld
   U.S. Coordinator, International Campaign for Justice in Bhopal; SfB
   Advisory Board Member

   Claire got involved with ICJB when she spent a week in July/2008 at the
   Sambhavna Trust Clinic in Bhopal.  She interned over summer with Shana at
   ICJB in San Francisco and organized the hugely successful curry cook-off
   fundraiser. Claire earned her B.A. in Cultural Studies and Foreign
   Languages (Spanish, Hindi) at the Evergreen State College in Olympia, WA.
   As part of the advisory board, she hopes to collaborate with groups
   committed to resolving the ongoing tragedy and provide her own insight
   about the direction of the campaign in North America. She brings her
   strong belief that corporate profit should never come at the price of
   human lives.

   Tony Millard
   SfB Advisory Board Member
   Tony graduated from the Northwestern University Medill School of
   Journalism in 2006, and he is currently working as a producer, writer and
   editor for an XM satellite medical radio station called ReachMD. In his
   first year on the AB, he helped to coordinate our extensive media campaign
   throughout the entire 2008 Padyatra, which included frequent press
   releases and outreach to news and information outlets across a variety of
   mediums throughout the United States.

   Having volunteered at the Sambhavna Clinic in Bhopal for most of a year
   spanning parts of 2006 and 2007, he hasa firm, first-hand perspective of
   the situation on the ground in Bhopal. From Sambhavna to the dilapidated
   factory, to Oriya Basti and Hamidia Hospital, to the oft-protested home of
   the chief minister of Madhya Pradesh in Shamla Hills, his knowledge of
   Bhopal is a benefit to our strategizing and planning actions here in the
   United States. This applies particularly from the standpoint of
   communicating to others the extent of the devastation across Bhopal, but
   more importantly, the spirit of the Bhopalis who continue to fight for
   Justice.

   Diana Katgara
   SfB Advisory Board Member
   Diana had the chance to spend some time in Bhopal and get to know a number
   of people there. These people who are strong, brillliant, loving,
   creative, inspirational, funny, musical, articulate, insightful, caring,
   full of hope and who will never ever give up fighting for justice for
   themselves and fighting to ensure that what has happened to Bhopalis
   doesn't happen to others have become an important part of her life.
   &#8232;&#8232;The grave injustices that have happened and continue to
   happen in Bhopal are unacceptable. From December 3rd, 1984 onwards
   Bhopalies have witnessed the horrors of losing their loved ones and
   continue to be lied to and cheated out of effective health care, clean
   water, safety against deadly poisons, the ability to earn, the right not
   to have to feed babies contaminated breast milk, just to name a few
   things. And yet, they continue to have hope and love and show care to
   eachother and those of us who ask if we can stand alongside them. They
   continue to have hope and trust that the world will not let this injustice
   continue.&#8232;&#8232;Over the last year and a half she hasseen the
   creative and meaningful ways that the SfB has supported the Bhopal
   Campaign in the US and she thinks it would be great to bring some of that
   over to Canada.

   Yogesh Simmhan
   SfB Advisory Board Member
   Yogesh brings his passion for justice to the Advisory Board--he hopes to
   improve the lives of Bhopalis, and fight corporate greed and government
   apathy. Co-founder of AID at the Indiana University, Bloomington, Yogesh
   organized all Bhopal-related events at his university from 2003-2007
   including vigils, protests, panel discussions with Ryan Bodyani and Rajan
   Sharma, and a Bhopal photo exhibit. Additionally, he has worked with
   Amnesty International in picketing a talk by Dow CEO Andrew Liveris in
   Indianapolis.   In 2006 he helped host the Students for Bhopal conference
   in Bloomington. Yogesh has experience in letter writing, media management,
   and event organizing. He sees the approaching 25th anniversary of the gas
   tragedy as an important opportunity: \"The looming 25th  anniversary is a
   crucial juncture for our campaign and SfB needs all the support possible
   to mobilize across the US. This is the time for everyone associated with
   the campaign to stand up and be counted, and I'm answering this call.\"

   Ellen Shifrin
   SFB Advisory Board Member
   A former professor and administer, Ellen has strong communication and
   organizational skills.   Her involvement with the campaign for justice in
   Bhopal began in 2008, but she was involved with Amnesty International for
   many years.   She has been invited to table at the UN Association of
   Canada, Toronto event on Water and the AI Business&Human Rights
   conference, The Case for Water as a Human Right.   Having traveled to the
   subcontinent eight times, Ellen is looking forward to combining her
   deep-rooted passions for human rights and India.
   Why do you believe in justice for Bhopal?
   \"Bhopal serves not only as a situation in itself, but also as a model for
   people in other places fighting the same type of violations. There are so
   many levels on which to work for justice in Bhopal - human and
   environmental rights, politics, economics, and the human spirit. So
   because Bhopal will always be with us in one way or another, because the
   fight of the gas and water-affected people is wholly non-violent, because
   the spirit of the survivors is so strong--all these are reasons why I want
   to be part of the Advisory Board, why I want to be more involved, and why
   I feel it's such an important cause to be whole-heartedly committed to.\"

    

    

    

   Leonid Chindelevitch
   SFB Advisory Board Member

   After being involved with the Bhopal campaign for 3 years at the local
   level and gained experience in activities ranging from making banners and
   folding my body in the shape of various letters to preparing budget
   requests and coordinating the chapter's activities, Leonid has taken the
   next step of joining the campaign's Advisory Board. He expects to make
   significant contribution to SfB by organizing fundraising events,
   recruiting new members to the campaign and contacting the media. In
   addition, he hopes to bring new insights into campaign strategies on the
   25th anniversary of the Bhopal disaster.

    

   Interested in joining the Advisory Board?
   In the fall there are Advisory Board nominations for positions that last
   for one year.  Occasionally there are openings during other parts of the
   year.  Email shana@panna.org to learn more.

    

    

   Past Members of the Advisory Board
   Pragya Bhagat (2007-09)

   Association for India's Development, Austin

   Aqueue Freechild (2004-2009)

   US Strategy Coordinator, ICJB

   Daniel Yeow (2007-08)

   Amnesty International, Columbia University

   Raghav Kaushik (2006-2007)

   Ryan Bodyani (2004-2007)

   Student Coordinator, ICJB
","2010-12-23 19:49:45",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/385135_staff-icjb-coordinators-board-.html","morson@stratfor.com","","mongoven@stratfor.com,morson@stratfor.com,defeo@stratfor.com,pubpolblog.post@blogger.com",""
385196,"Fw: Army intel analyst arrested in Wikileaks video Probe
","272","2010-06-07 18:35:02",1,"2012-03-01 23:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/385196_fw-army-intel-analyst-arrested-in-wikileaks-video-probe-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","PosillicoM2@state.gov","attach/13/13219_envelope.gif
attach/33/33382_Brad-Manning-Out-of-Uniform.jpg
attach/33/33383_Brad-Manning-in-uniform.jpg
attach/33/33385_adrian_1-300x200.jpg"
385387,"Fw: Wikileaks founder currently in the U.S.
","     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Shane Harris <shanewharris@gmail.com>
   Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2010 12:10:45 -0400
   To: Fred Burton<burton@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Wikileaks founder currently in the U.S.

   He's speaking on a panel today in Vegas.*
   http://data.nicar.org/conference/lasvegas10/showcase*

   --
   Shane Harris
   www.shaneharris.com
   202-489-4827 (mobile)
   202-862-3513 (office)
   Twitter: shanewharris
   Read THE WATCHERS: www.shaneharris.com/thewatchers
","2010-06-11 18:11:33",1,"2012-03-01 23:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/385387_fw-wikileaks-founder-currently-in-the-u-s-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","tactical@stratfor.com",""
385427,"Re: [CT] CYPRUS/US/RUSSIA - Cypriot authorities searching spysuspect's laptop
","   We had the Cypriot service on our payroll for years. I don't know who
   currently owns them. Highest bidder no doubt. We would not need the
   original, just first generation.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Mon, 5 Jul 2010 11:09:11 -0500 (CDT)
   To: CT AOR<ct@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [CT] CYPRUS/US/RUSSIA - Cypriot authorities searching spy
   suspect's laptop
   Yes, the issue is whether or not the Cypriots hand over the gear to the
   US. 

   Fred Burton wrote:

 I doubt they have the forensic capabilities to handle looking for
 inbeded messages.  The real question is will the Russians or US conduct
 the exams?


 Kristen Cooper wrote:
  

 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/05/AR2010070501301.html


   Cypriot authorities searching spy suspect's laptop

 By MENELAOS HADJICOSTIS
 The Associated Press
 Monday, July 5, 2010; 10:55 AM

 NICOSIA, Cyprus -- Cyprus police are searching the contents of a
 confiscated laptop belonging to an alleged Russian spy who has vanished,
 the east Mediterranean island's justice minister said on Monday.

 Loucas Louca says U.S. authorities have requested the laptop and \"more
 than one\" USB memory stick belonging to 54-year-old Christopher Metsos.

 Louca said the laptop and USB memory sticks were confiscated on June 29
 when Metsos was arrested trying to board a flight to Budapest, Hungary.
 The items were not returned to Metsos after a Cyprus court released him
 on $33,000 bail on June 30, after which he promptly disappeared.

 Metsos is wanted in the U.S. on charges that he supplied money to a spy
 ring that operated under deep cover in the suburbs. He arrived in Cyprus
 June on 17, traveling on a Canadian passport.

 The minister said the search is part of routine procedure to determine
 whether the laptop contains information relevant to the case, legally
 enabling Cypriot authorities to turn the laptop and memory sticks over
 to U.S. authorities.

 Cyprus Attorney General Petros Clerides will decide whether the
 retrieved information warrants the laptop's transfer to U.S.
 authorities, Louca said.

 \"We have no reason to keep the laptop if the Attorney General decides
 so,\" Louca told the Associated Press.

 The minister said that Canada's ambassador to Greece and Cyprus, Renata
 E. Wielgosz, confirmed that the passport Metsos was using is genuine,
 but said it was obtained using the identity of a boy who died at the age
 of 5.

 Cyprus President Dimitris Christofias said Metsos has likely fled the
 island.

 Metsos' disappearance deeply embarrassed Cyprus authorities. But
 Christofias deflected U.S. Justice department criticism, saying U.S.
 authorities were slow in providing certain documents to Cypriot police.

 Louca said he has asked for a report detailing events surrounding
 Metsos' disappearance.

    

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com


   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   Office: +1 512-279-9479
   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-07-05 18:11:34",1,"2012-03-14 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/385427_re-ct-cyprus-us-russia-cypriot-authorities-searching.html","burton@stratfor.com","","ct@stratfor.com",""
385469,"=?Windows-1252?B?UmU6IFtDVF1bT1NdIElDRUxBTkQvVVMvTUlMIC0gVmljdG9yeSBmb3IgV2lraUxlYWtzIGluIEljZWxhbmSScyBQYXJsaWFtZW50?=
","   Until an Icelander is beheaded by a jihadi...

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2010 13:07:57 -0500
   To: CT AOR<ct@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [CT] [OS] ICELAND/US/MIL - Victory for WikiL eaks in
   Iceland's Parliament
   Note the analysis at the very bottom, this won't keep people like
   Wikileaks protected, but it will help. 

   Daniel Ben-Nun wrote:

                 Victory for WikiLeaks in Iceland's Parliament

     By ROBERT MACKEY

     An Al Jazeera English video report explained the Icelandic Modern Media
     Initiative in March.

     At 4 a.m. on Thursday, at the end of an all-night session, Iceland's
     Parliament, the Althing, voted unanimously in favor of a package of
     legislation aimed at making the country a haven for freedom of
     expression by offering legal protection to whistle-blower Web sites like
     WikiLeaks, which helped to craft the proposal.

     As the Web site Ice News reports, \"One of the inspirations for the
     proposal was the dramatic August 2009 gagging of of Iceland's national
     broadcaster, RUV by Iceland's then largest bank, Kaupthing.\"

     One of the sponsors of the proposal in the Althing, Birgitta Jonsdottir,
     told my colleague Noam Cohen in February that Iceland hoped to become
     \"the inverse of a tax haven,\" by offering journalists and publishers
     some of the most aggressive protections for free speech and
     investigative journalism in the world. \"They are trying to make
     everything opaque,\" she said. \"We are trying to make it transparent.\"

     As Mr. Cohen explained in an article on the package of laws that passed
     on Thursday:

         The proposal, the Icelandic Modern Media Initiative, combines in a
     single piece of legislation provisions from around the world:
     whistle-blower laws and rules about Internet providers from the United
     States; source protection laws from Belgium; freedom of information laws
     from Estonia and Scotland, among others; and New York State's law to
     counteract \"libel tourism,\" the practice of suing in courts, like
     Britain's, where journalists have the hardest time prevailing. [...]

         The plan to make Iceland a world leader in journalism protection
     took shape in December with the assistance of two leaders of the
     whistle-blower Web site WikiLeaks.org, Julian Assange and Daniel
     Schmitt, whose publish-nearly-anything ideology has given them personal
     experience with news media laws around the globe.

     On Tuesday, Philip Shenon of The Daily Beast reported that Mr. Assange
     had told supporters that the site would soon release another video of an
     American military strike that killed civilians:

         After several days underground, the founder of the secretive Web
     site WikiLeaks has gone public to disclose that he is preparing to
     release a classified Pentagon video of a U.S. airstrike in Afghanistan
     last year that left as many as 140 civilians dead, most of them children
     and teenagers.

         In an e-mail message obtained by The Daily Beast that was sent to
     WikiLeaks supporters in the United States Tuesday, Julian Assange, the
     Web site's Australian-born founder, also defends a 22-year-old Army
     intelligence specialist who is now under arrest in Kuwait on charges
     that he leaked classified Pentagon combat videos, as well as 260,000
     State Department cables, to WikiLeaks.

     It is not yet clear how much help the new legislation will provide to
     foreign journalists trying to shield themselves behind Icelandic law. As
     the Nieman Journalism Lab notes:
         In his analysis of the proposal - \"Fortress Iceland? Probably Not.\"
     - Arthur Bright of the Citizen Media Law Project has noted that in one
     major test case of cross-border online libel law, \"publication\" was
     deemed to occur at the point of download - meaning that serving a
     controversial page from Iceland won't keep you from getting sued in
     other countries. But if nothing else, it would probably prevent your
     servers from being forcibly shut down.
     Monroe Price, who runs a program in comparative media law at the
     University of Oxford, told The Independent in London, \"As an exercise in
     aspirations, it's a bold and important endeavor.\" But, he added, \"if
     it's a significant issue like a national security question, then the
     charging jurisdiction will figure out ways of asserting its power.\"

     --
     Daniel Ben-Nun
     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-06-17 20:10:43",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/385469_-windows-1252-b.html","burton@stratfor.com","","ct@stratfor.com",""
385949,"Re:
","Agree, we just met with Dr. Litton and have some good advice.  More to follow.

------Original Message------
From: George Friedman
To: Scott Stewart
To: 'George Friedman'
To: Fred Burton
ReplyTo: friedman@att.blackberry.net
Subject: Re:
Sent: Jan 28, 2010 4:47 PM

We could try but it wouldn't work. 

Not worried about the blowback as much as you guys are. This will mature the team when it blows. A lot more care will emerge. 
------Original Message------
From: scott stewart
To: 'George Friedman'
To: Fred Burton
Subject: RE:
Sent: Jan 28, 2010 4:23 PM

Copy. Is there any way we can begin to separate here from the rest of the
company? Cause her to  do her projects on her own from home?



Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2010-01-29 00:14:47",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/385949_re-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,friedman@att.blackberry.net",""
386254,"Re:
","There is a tremendous learning opportunity about trust, source vetting, fabricators and deception operations.

------Original Message------
From: George Friedman
To: Scott Stewart
To: 'George Friedman'
To: Fred Burton
ReplyTo: friedman@att.blackberry.net
Subject: Re:
Sent: Jan 28, 2010 4:47 PM

We could try but it wouldn't work. 

Not worried about the blowback as much as you guys are. This will mature the team when it blows. A lot more care will emerge. 
------Original Message------
From: scott stewart
To: 'George Friedman'
To: Fred Burton
Subject: RE:
Sent: Jan 28, 2010 4:23 PM

Copy. Is there any way we can begin to separate here from the rest of the
company? Cause her to  do her projects on her own from home?



Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2010-01-29 00:23:53",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/386254_re-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,friedman@att.blackberry.net",""
386477,"Re: Fwd: Manning & Wiki Founder Arrest/Prosecution?
","   Emre:

   We cannot source the comment specifically to the FBI, but can say a
   reliable Stratfor source reports.....

   Fry means pay severely for his actions in the intel lingo.

   I think Manning could get the death penalty. Depends if the DOD goes after
   him for espionage vice unauthorized disclosure.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Emre Dogru <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 3 Dec 2010 02:37:05 -0600 (CST)
   To: burton<burton@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Confederation<confed@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Fwd: Manning & Wiki Founder Arrest/Prosecution?
   Hey Fred, one of our confed partners (Sabah daily) would like to use this
   information without any attribution. But he just wonders if your source
   used \"fry\" in the sense that Manning should be executed by electrocution,
   or does it mean something else in intel business lingo?
   Thanks

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>, \"TACTICAL\"
   <tactical@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, December 2, 2010 8:16:14 PM
   Subject: Manning & Wiki Founder Arrest/Prosecution?

   >From a very senior man @ the FBI -- (not for attribution to the FBI pls)

   ------------------------------------------------------------------

   There is no way the administration wants to put him on trial.  That
   would be a huge circus.  Manning should fry and hopefully will

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-03 14:50:05",1,"2012-02-29 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/386477_re-fwd-manning-and-wiki-founder-arrest-prosecution-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","emre.dogru@stratfor.com,confed@stratfor.com",""
386876,"Re: FRACK - W.Va. eyes fluid disclosure; quote from Lachelt
","   I don't know.  Threaten the fluids' profitability, and they'll make more
   money By leaving the US market.   At least that is what I thought.

   On Mar 8, 2010, at 6:22 PM, Kathleen Morson <morson@stratfor.com> wrote:

     did we ever figure out who looses when nat gas companies agree to
     disclose frack fluid ingredients?  halliburton of course -- what are the
     others?   why does rex not care?

     ----- Original Message -----
     From: \"Joseph de Feo\" <defeo@stratfor.com>
     To: mongoven@stratfor.com, morson@stratfor.com, defeo@stratfor.com,
     \"pubpolblog post\" <pubpolblog.post@blogger.com>
     Sent: Monday, March 8, 2010 3:14:40 PM GMT -08:00 US/Canada Pacific
     Subject: FRACK - W.Va. eyes fluid disclosure; quote from Lachelt

     Lachelt raises the example of an Alabama requirement that coalbed
     methane extraction use a toxic-free freshwater process as evidence that
     industry could do better.

     ---
     http://www.wvobserver.com/2010/03/house-bill-eyes-shale-gas-drilling/
     The Observer | House Bill Eyes Shale Gas Drilling
     3 March 2010

     by Glenn Scherer

     The rush to tap vast natural gas reserves trapped in the Marcellus Shale
     bedrock underlying rural West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York, and Ohio
     has led to a heated regional debate concerning the safety of a
     controversial drilling process known as a**fracking,a** or natural gas
     hydraulic fracturing. Legislation introduced in the West Virginia House
     by Delegate Tim Manchin, D-Marion, would begin to regulate the large
     volume of water withdrawn for drilling and fracturing. It would also
     require drilling companies to identify the contents of potentially
     polluting frac fluids, and set up a system for tracking the disposal of
     those fluids.

     Fracking, combined with horizontal drilling, is a process by which
     millions of gallons of water, mixed with a brew of chemicals and sand,
     are pumped thousands of feet underground, then forced sideways for as
     much as a mile, shattering bedrock strata, and thereby releasing natural
     gas impounded there. High-end estimates say that there may be more than
     500 trillion cubic feet of natural gas locked up in the Marcellus Shale,
     enough to supply the entire United States for two years. The value of
     the gas could be as high as $1 trillion.

     Fracking in shale, say public health advocates, differs from traditional
     petroleum fracking. The oil industry has been using freshwater for
     decades offshore without concerns of chemical contamination of
     groundwater.

     At issue are safety claims made by the drilling industry, as compared to
     a growing number of citizen complaints about polluted air, poisoned
     drinking water, dead livestock, and an industrial infrastructure
     inappropriate to rural and suburban landscapes. Fracking damage has been
     reported in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas,
     Louisiana, New Mexico, Kansas, Colorado, Montana, Virginia, Washington,
     and Wyoming.

     In September 2009, for example, in Dimmick, Pennsylvania an 8,000-gallon
     gas drilling wastewater spill involving toxic frack chemicals caused a
     major fish kill in Stephens Creek. Also in Dimmick last year, a home
     drinking water well exploded after it was contaminated by methane from a
     fracking operation. In 2007, a home blew up near Cleveland, Ohio, when
     it was infiltrated by methane from a fracked natural gas well.

     A catastrophic fish kill that wiped out all life on a 30-mile stretch of
     pristine Dunkard Creek on the West Virginia-Pennsylvania border has also
     raised questions about fracking safety. Though officials are still
     uncertain as to the disastera**s cause, one source under investigation
     is the improper disposal of contaminated frack wastewater.

     Other U.S. communities have reported fracking problems. Last year, the
     air above the little town of DISH Texas (pop. 181) turned so foul that
     officials used one sixth of the annual municipal budget to fund an air
     quality study. Findings showed that local air seriously violated state
     carcinogenic and neurotoxin safety standards. Fumes are reportedly
     rising from natural gas wells, compressors, condensate tanks and
     pipelines a** part of massive fracking operations there, says the Denton
     Record-Chronicle.

     In Louisiana, also last year, 16 cattle died after a**apparently
     drinking from mysterious fluid adjacent to a natural gas drilling
     rig,a** according to  the Shreveport Times. In 2008, in Hill County,
     Texas, three landowners found their pristine drinking water wells
     polluted with sulfates and toluenea**a gasoline additive and solvent
     toxic to humans and animals. All three properties are adjacent to
     fracking wells, reports the Fort Worth Weekly.

     The potential for harm from fracking is not yet known. The concern is
     that frack water, polluted with toxins, is left underground and could
     over the years rise through strata to contaminate groundwater. The
     problem, environmental advocates say, is that neither industry nor
     government has done any long-term studies. What is known is that
     aquifers once polluted are nearly impossible to clean up.

     Other worries center around the millions of gallons of flowback water
     that do return to the surface at each well, which must be treated as
     hazardous waste because it contains toxic fracking chemicals, plus
     toxins leached from bedrock such as benzene and radioactive materials.
     Open pits, used to store wastewater, can leak into groundwater and also
     cause air pollution. Toxic wastewater either must be trucked to already
     overtaxed waste treatment plants for cleanup, or injected back
     underground.

     Finally, there are concerns about the pressures that the fracking
     infrastructure places on communities. The tens of thousands of new
     fracking wells planned for the Marcellus Shale will need acres each for
     well pads, plus land for noisy air-polluting compressors, wastewater
     tanks and pits, and miles of pipeline (which may leak) and new roads.
     Rural homeowners who abut drilling sites compare the foul air and
     constant roar of compressors to living in an industrial zone.

     Oil and Gas Accountability Project Director Gwen Lachelt thinks the
     industry isna**t looking hard enough for solutions, and notes for
     example that offshore fracking wells, and coalbed methane wells in
     Alabama are required to use a**freshwater fracka** when drilling, a
     process that is free of toxic chemicals. a**So why doesna**t industry
     use freshwater frack in shale drilling?a** she asks. a**The industry has
     armies of engineers and scientists. I have all the faith in the world in
     them that they can develop fracturing fluids that are not harmful to
     public health and wildlife.a**

     Fracking worries have resulted in a push in West Virginia, Pennsylvania,
     New York and Ohio to strengthen state safeguards regarding fracking
     operations. In Pennsylvania, a statewide debate is ongoing whether to
     allow further expansion of natural gas drilling on state forestlands.

     The West Virginia bill, should it become law, would give public-health
     advocates what theya**ve been asking for, and what industry has been so
     far unwilling to provide: a table of contents about what is in the
     fracking fluids. The Bush administration had exempted fracking from the
     Safe Drinking Water Act, allowing industry to guard fracking fluids as
     trade secrets. Without a list of those chemicals, states and citizens
     cannot know what toxins to test for in potentially contaminated drinking
     water. This so-called Halliburton Loophole especially benefited Dick
     Cheneya**s former employer Halliburton, inventor of the fracking
     process.

     Some in Congress want to pass the FRAC Act (the Fracturing
     Responsibility and Awareness of Chemicals Bill; S.1215, and H.R. 2766),
     requiring drilling companies to make fracking chemicals public, and
     allowing EPA to set fracking minimum standards for states to enforce.
     The economic downturn has dimmed likelihood of FRAC Act passage this
     year.

     Still, many in the natural gas industry resist revealing secret frack
     chemicals. a**It is much like asking Coca-Cola to disclose the formula
     of Coke,a** said Ron Heyden, a Halliburton executive, in testimony
     before the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission in 2008.

     Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson speaking at a January 2010 congressional hearing
     concerning the $41 billion merger of Exxon with XTO Energy (one of the
     worlda**s biggest natural gas drilling companies), said he could support
     revealing toxic frack mixes. He added that, by combining the hydraulic
     fracturing and horizontal drilling processes a**we can now find and
     produce unconventional natural gas supplies miles below the surface in a
     safe, efficient and environmentally responsible manner.a** Exxon has
     threatened to nix its XTO acquisition if Congress makes fracking
     a**illegal or commercially impractical.a**

     At press time, Del. Manchina**s bill was moving toward a vote in the
     House. Senate passage remains uncertain.

     A(c) 2010 www.blueridgepress.com
","2010-03-09 00:33:32",1,"2012-03-01 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/386876_re-frack-w-va-eyes-fluid-disclosure-quote-from-lachelt-.html","mongoven@stratfor.com","","morson@stratfor.com,defeo@stratfor.com,pubpolblog.post@blogger.com",""
386972,"Re: Fw: J Dead.  Game on.
","   Spy round up was linked to J's death. Was an effort to shake the trees
   looking for leads to the killer. It also explains why the swap happened so
   quickly.

   May make a better tearline for next week?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kyle Rhodes <kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2010 11:06:58 -0500
   To: <burton@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: Fw: J Dead. Game on.
   10-4

   You mentioned that we have some intel on this that we can't release yet -
   any word on if/when we can release the intel? Would it be something pretty
   juicy in the media's eyes? I assume it's something to do with his death
   being not-so-natural...

   Fred Burton wrote:

     Kyle, I can handle any Comrade J interviews but would need flexibility.
     I'm balancing off site meetings and deadlines on forms for my publisher.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
     Date: Fri, 9 Jul 2010 16:03:21 +0000
     To: Sean Noonan<sean.noonan@stratfor.com>;
     Tactical<tactical@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: burton@stratfor.com
     Subject: Re: J Dead. Game on.
     FBI told the widow (PROTECT) that foul play has been ruled out.

     She doesn't believe it.

     Nor does JJ or Pete Earley.

     But it also explains why the group was swapped so quickly AFTER the
     group was rolled up so quickly.

     The last point I will be able to nail down.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
     Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2010 09:57:51 -0500
     To: Tactical<tactical@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: J Dead. Game on.
     yep.  we won't know for awhile, if ever. 

     scott stewart wrote:

       Could be. It is hard to tell. Everything in this area is purposefully
       muddied up by both sides.

        

        

        

       From: Sean Noonan [mailto:sean.noonan@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Friday, July 09, 2010 10:30 AM
       To: anya.alfano@stratfor.com
       Cc: Korena Zucha; Tactical Group; Fred Burton
       Subject: Re: J Dead. Game on.

        

       I'm beginning to wonder if this is all a series of mistakes.  Maybe
       FBI flipped out when Tret died  and went after these guys, but didn't
       really know what they were doing.  That would explain the quick trade,
       just as well as a failed 'shaking of trees'

       devil's advocate thinking

       Anya Alfano wrote:

       True. And maybe he was murdered in a way that made it look natural?
       All the good spy stuff. It is strange that jj mentions that the
       toxicology still isn't back. Long time for a high priority case. We
       knew what Michael Jackson died of in a week

       Anya Alfano
       STRATFOR

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>

       Date: Fri, 9 Jul 2010 09:17:17 -0500 (CDT)

       To: <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>

       Cc: Sean Noonan<sean.noonan@stratfor.com>; Tactical
       Group<tactical@stratfor.com>

       Subject: Re: J Dead. Game on.

        

       He did have a history of high blood pressure. Would be awfully big
       coincidence though.

       Anya Alfano wrote:

       Might be her choice. Maybe she just wants the whole mess to disappear,
       especially now that it's killed her husband. Maybe she thinks she's
       next if she says too much more?

       Anya Alfano
       STRATFOR

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>

       Date: Fri, 9 Jul 2010 09:06:22 -0500 (CDT)

       To: Sean Noonan<sean.noonan@stratfor.com>

       Cc: Tactical<tactical@stratfor.com>

       Subject: Re: J Dead. Game on.

        

       Would the US govt have an interest in making everyone believe (and
       pressuring Helen go along with it) that J died of natural causes if
       that wasn't the case?

       Sean Noonan wrote:

       http://www.wtop.com/?nid=25&sid=1999036

 --

 Sean Noonan

 Tactical Analyst

 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com

  

  

 --

 Sean Noonan

 Tactical Analyst

 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Kyle Rhodes
 Public Relations Manager
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com

 kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com
 +1.512.744.4309
 www.twitter.com/stratfor
 www.facebook.com/stratfor
","2010-07-09 18:10:56",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/386972_re-fw-j-dead-game-on-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","brian.genchur@stratfor.com,kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com",""
387213,"Re: FW: the letter
","Wonder if they tried to pull up \"HMRShippingUK.net\".  Game over....

On 2/12/2010 3:24 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
> Have the Indians also been invited to the party?
>
> scott stewart wrote:
>   
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Peter Zeihan [mailto:zeihan@stratfor.com] 
>> Sent: Friday, February 12, 2010 3:17 PM
>> To: scott stewart
>> Subject: the letter
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>
>> Subject:
>> Re: Hello my friends
>> From:
>> \"Marko Papic\" <mpapic@gmail.com>
>> Date:
>> Thu, 11 Feb 2010 20:39:17 -0500
>> To:
>> <L.A.Anderson@hmrshippinguk.net>
>>
>> To:
>> <L.A.Anderson@hmrshippinguk.net>
>> CC:
>> <cooper.a.kristen@gmail.com>, <peter.zeihan@stratfor.com>
>>
>>
>> Hey Andrew,
>>
>> Thank you for your email.
>>
>> What are you thinking about? And for how many people? The latter makes a
>> difference since if we invite a large number of people from Stratfor, we
>> would want to make it accessible and relatively work-hour related (so
>> happy hour -- unfortunately as lame as that sounds -- would have to do).
>>
>> Alternatively, if you are thinking of something more private and
>> low-key, we could plan for a nice dinner somewhere, or perhaps even
>> better a lunch.
>>
>> That said, if we want to really give Lauren something that she (and all
>> of us) would enjoy... how about going and doing something fun... like
>> paintball. Lauren is always talking about how she would kick everyone's
>> ass in paintball. Well... what better way to celebrate her birthday then
>> to let her kill all of us (with paint of course... of course, just
>> paint...).
>>
>> We could also think of some sort of an event on Town Lake.
>>
>> I can help you out with these ideas. Just note that I am on vacation in
>> Taos between the 11th and 22nd of March. I will be here for March 23rd
>> -- which I believe is her birthday -- but I will miss the weekend that
>> preceeds it.
>>
>> Cheers,
>>
>> Marko
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On Thu, Feb 11, 2010 at 9:51 AM, L. Andrew Anderson
>> <L.A.Anderson@hmrshippinguk.net <mailto:L.A.Anderson@hmrshippinguk.net>>
>> wrote:
>>
>>     Hello Kristen, Marko and Peter,
>>
>>      
>>
>>     I apologize for this contact without a proper introduction of such
>>     correspondence. But I understand from Lauren that you would not take
>>     affront to such a gesture.
>>
>>      
>>
>>     My contact has purpose in that I hope to work with your
>>     “Strat-clique” on plans for Ella’s 30th birthday. I have attempted
>>     to contact Miss Reva, but she must have overlooked my communications.
>>
>>      
>>
>>     Lauren and I had originally planned on celebrating her Pearl
>>     Anniversary in Italy with your participation, though with the
>>     barrage of engagement and wedding events, she has regrettably
>>     insisted on postponing for one year this trip. This was her idea and
>>     not mine, as I beg your pardon for such anticipation. Also, her
>>     close friend Jennifer shall be giving birth around Ella’s birthday,
>>     so our stubborn Birthday Girl has insisted on spending her day in
>>     the States.
>>
>>      
>>
>>     I have quite a few ideas stored away though she is adamant about
>>     neglecting this celebration. Thus far, I have rented a private yacht
>>     for us to get away far from land for a few days. Her family has the
>>     obligatory dinner planned the week of her birthday at the River Oaks
>>     Country Club.
>>
>>      
>>
>>     So I am open to your suggestions and inevitable plotting on what
>>     else we can do, especially among her Stratfor mates. I firmly
>>     believe that we need something outside of my private kidnapping of
>>     her and her family’s stodgy dinner.
>>
>>      
>>
>>     Let me know if we can work together in this endeavor. I am open to
>>     your suggestions and plotting. I hope you can aide my poor attempts
>>     to please all her requests on such an occasion.
>>
>>      
>>
>>     Your servant and friend,
>>
>>     L. Andrew
>>     ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>
>>     Rt. Hon Andrew Anderson
>>
>>      
>>
>>           Lord of Kenton Park
>>
>>      
>>
>>                Her Majesty The Queen’s Royal Shipping
>>
>>      
>>
>>                Anderson Shipping, UK
>>
>>      
>>
>>                     Aldwych House, 71-91 Aldwych London, UK WC2B 4HN
>>                     Service: 20.3287.8860
>>
>>      
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>     
","2010-02-12 21:49:47",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/387213_re-fw-the-letter-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
387524,"Re: Yes men prank today?
","   Ok, just thought I heard something.  Never mind.  

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Feb 19, 2010, at 2:40 PM, Kathleen Morson <morson@stratfor.com> wrote:

     they appear to be in sante fe for a benefit on their  movie this monday.

     there's a sante fe reporter article about them that lists little actions
     that people can take in the sante fe area -- one of them is for the
     independent petroleum association of mountain states and to register for
     a \"washington call in\" event IPAMS is doing.

     Target: The Independent Petroleum Association of Mountain States, a
     trade association that represents 400 a**independent oil and natural gas
     producersa** including Shell, BP and Halliburton

     The problem: IPAMS claims to be dedicated to a**building a sustainable
     energy future,a** but it lobbies against alternative energy and devotes
     the bulk of its advocacy to ensuring the continued primacy of fossil
     fuels.

     The prank: Register for the IPAMS a**Washington call up.\" Bring 10
     friends and perform a musical theater piece in the middle of the keynote
     speech. RSVP for the briefing by emailing Becca Ness or calling
     303-623-0987. Be sure to use a good pseudonym!

                                  YES, PLEASE

   THE YES MEN FIX THE WORLDNEW MEXICO

     By: Zane Fischer 02/17/2010

     http://sfreporter.com/stories/yes_please/5365/

     As a 14-year-old fan of both Jimmy Carter and George Orwell, 1984 was a
     tough year for me. 

     I was convinced Ronald Reagan would find a way to ensure an Orwellian
     dystopia and that a dark future was at hand.

     It turns out I was right.

     But the plot proved to be a lot bigger than Ronald Reagan, and Big
     Brother manifested more as a corporate medusa than a monolithic
     government. 

     If Ia**d known what to look for, the signs were sitting right in front
     of the sleepy rural town in which I grew up.

     On Dec. 3, 1984, 32 tons of toxic methyl isocyanate gas leaked out of
     a Union Carbide Corporation plant in Bhopal, India. Death toll numbers
     vary depending on the source, but between 4,000 and 18,000 people were
     dead within two weeks.

     Meanwhile, just a few miles west of my home in Bishop, Calif., and
     upriver from the sweet little stream that trickled past my house, Union
     Carbide was running the largest tungsten mine in the United States. In
     my town, Union Carbide was a source of good jobs and local benevolence.
     Union Carbide guys were heroes.

     I can remember my mother explaining to me that big companies werena**t
     always as responsible as they should be and would sometimes cut corners
     and take advantage of the poverty in other countries, but that the
     neighbor who worked at the mine wasna**t necessarily a bad person. 

     As the years wore on, people continued to die by the thousands in
     Bhopal. Union Carbide claimed it was not responsible and it abandoned
     the Bhopal plant, leaving behind another 390 tons of toxic chemicals
     that continue to leak into the groundwater to this day. The disaster
     there is now frequently cited as the worst industrial disaster in
     history.

     Twenty years after the Bhopal leak, on Dec. 3, 2004, a spokesman for Dow
     Chemical Company, which had purchased Union Carbide in 1999, announced
     on BBC World News that the company would pay reparations to the people
     of Bhopal and foot the bill for a comprehensive cleanup.

     In a little more than 20 minutes, the value of Dow stock dropped by $2
     billion. The spokesman was a hero.

     But he didna**t work for Dow. He was Andy Bichlbaum. He was a Yes Man.

     <SFIinfo.jpg>The Yes Men, an activist organization that uses parody and
     satire to bring attention to government and corporate misdeeds, came to
     prominence when they participated in the faux World Trade Organization
     website, gatt.org, which was launched in tandem with the protest-riddled
     1999 WTO meeting in Seattle, Wash. 

     Bichlbaum and fellow Yes Man Mike Bonanno have spent the 10 years since
     engaged in increasingly elaborate and far-reaching activist stunts.

     In 2000, the group spoofed President George W Busha**s election website,
     prompting Bush to say, famously, a**there ought to be limits to
     freedom.a**

     Among its many pranks striking at the core of social and economic
     issues, the Yes Men, in corporate or spokesman guise, have proposed that
     McDonalda**s include 20 percent post consumer waste in its hamburgers,
     announced that the US Department of Housing and Urban Development would
     do right by impoverished citizens left homeless by Hurricane Katrina and
     suggested that Africa could be better managed through the use of
     slavery.

     More recently, the Yes Men held a press conference in which they
     announced the US Chamber of Commercea**s newfound support for
     alternative energy and pretended to be representatives of the Canadian
     government at the climate change conference in Copenhagen, Denmark.

     As a result of Yes Men actions and film projects, thousands of articles
     have been written about otherwise-ignored issues. They have become the
     de facto publicity and propaganda arm of social-justice activism and,
     this week, theya**re on the loose in Santa Fe. SFR spoke to Bichlbaum
     about life as a Yes Man, and asked the group to provide some
     hypothetical a**actionsa** for some usual New Mexico suspects.

      

     WHO ARE THOSE UNMASKED MEN?

     SFR: An article in Mother Jones recently argued that Yes Men high jinks
     have degenerated to the level of mere entertainment, that it has become
     difficult to parse your attacks on corporations like Dow Chemical and
     Halliburton from the social or celebrity antics of Borat or Ashton
     Kutcher.
     AB: Really? I havena**t seen that. But, you know, wea**re just trying to
     get an important message out through the means that are available to us,
     the avenues that we are good at. We are doing what we can to publicize
     and drum up enthusiasm and engagement surrounding issues that we and a
     great many other people consider to be important. Certainly we use
     humor. And certainly entertainment can be about making people laugh, but
     also about something greater. Borat, for example, makes some points
     beyond simple jokes; therea**s a kind of a thesis in there. But the Yes
     Men are activists who are using comedy and Ia**m not sure therea**s a
     direct comparison to comedians who may have some activist element or
     some amount of social agenda that appears in their routines. 

     Is humor an effective way of cutting to the heart of our most pressing
     social, economic and political issues?
     Laughter is a simple tool that gets publicity and that results in
     articles being written and in the development of a broad audience. If
     what youa**re doing isna**t funnya**and I suppose you could correlate
     that to entertainment valuea**then your audience is likely to be a lot
     smaller. But ita**s possible that ridiculing those who are in fact
     ridiculous or whose ideas and actions are somewhat ridiculous can
     translate to some popular and progressive power. Some believe that humor
     is a potent political weapon; humor may have kneecapped Sarah Palina**s
     run for vice president or it may have toppled the Soviet Union. I
     dona**t know if I believe that exactly, but humor certainly is a
     powerful component of human belief and experience.

     If the Yes Men differ so significantly from comedians, what about
     self-declared activists with a different agenda, like James Oa**Keefe
     and Robert Flanagan and others involved in the controversial ACORN
     videos and the attempt to infiltrate US Sen. Mary Landrieua**s office?
     Oh, those guys are rank amateurs. I mean, going in and messing with a
     senatora**s phone lines and not even bothering to make fake ID? Ita**s
     just unbelievably stupid. Ita**s also not at all like what we do. They
     seem to be about hurting people who are in a position of weakness or
     hurting people who are trying to help people who are in a position of
     weakness. Wea**re more interested in stopping and exposing people who
     are hurting others. I mean, I dona**t actually understand the motivation
     for those guys: How can you put so much energy into hurting people? I
     know theya**re using the, uh, a**fair and balanceda** argument, but that
     doesna**t play with what amounts to a fraudulent sting-style operation
     perpetrated under false pretenses. Again, what we do is something a
     little different.

     But waita*|when you posed as a US Chamber of Commerce representative,
     you didna**t have any business cards when questioned. Why not?
     Good point. I guess my only defense is that we were engaging in
     political theater. We werena**t up to something definitively illegal. We
     were not trying to do something that we knew could land us in jail.
     Therea**s performance and therea**s amoral, illegal behavior, and I
     think the difference is perceptible.

     Do you think that Yes Men actions have been effective?
     Well, it gets media attention for sure. And, as I said, I think if that
     attention relates to a larger, cohesive campaign then, yes, it can be
     very effective.

     <fast_-l.jpg>Whata**s an example of relating to a broader strategy?
     Our sort of multifaceted attacks on Dow Chemical related to the Bhopal
     disaster were highly coordinated with groups that are dedicated to
     helping the victims in Bhopal or raising awareness about the incident.
     At the Copenhagen climate conference we worked with the Climate Debt
     Agents. We sort of drum up attention for causes that many other people
     and groups are already working on. Everything we do comes down to
     pointing out when economic policies place the rights of capital before
     the needs of people and the environment. Thata**s the key problem that
     wea**re always driving at and we can usually frame our actions within
     the context of other organizations that are dedicated to some aspect of
     that fight.

     Is corporatocracy the primary problem facing the US today?
     I think I can agree with that. Yes, yes it is.

     Is there an official Yes Men response to the US Supreme Courta**s recent
     assertion that the rights of corporations extend to unlimited campaign
     contributions?
     Just the obvious: Ita**s horrifying. Ita**s exactly the wrong direction
     to go in and, as a nation, wea**d better not let it stick. Ita**s so
     totally bad. The only way to ever see progressive legislation would be
     to end corporate lobbyinga**perioda**and this ruling, of course, goes in
     exactly the opposite direction.

     In some opposition to the usual position of the more conservative
     justices, that ruling appears to attack statesa** rights, as a great
     many states have laws governing corporate contributions. Do you think
     states will become the front line on this battle?
     I guess Ia**m not up enough on that as I should be. I dona**t really
     know what role the states will play.

     Your presentation in Santa Fe serves as a benefit for the Santa Fe Art
     Institute. Are the Yes Men artists?
     I dona**t know. I guess it depends on who is asking. Or who is being
     asked. Ora*|I dona**t really think of it that way, I dona**t wonder
     about how to define what we do; I just think of it as doing something.

     Why are so few of us doing something?
     I dona**t know that either. Ita**s a good question. Maybe most of us
     dona**t realize how fun it is to start doing something. Trying to make
     things better may not sound like a good time but, I promise, there can a
     lot of fun in it.

     Are you able to hint at any new targets on the horizon or do you have to
     feign innocence?
     Well, the list of potential targets is, regrettably, almost endless. But
     right now, I feel like wea**ve just finish
","2010-02-19 21:47:10",1,"2012-02-27 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/387524_re-yes-men-prank-today-.html","mongoven@stratfor.com","","morson@stratfor.com,defeo@stratfor.com",""
387545,"STAFF - Ryan Bodanyi works for NWF now
","   http://www.nwf.org/News-and-Magazines/Media-Center/Faces-of-NWF/Ryan-Bodanyi.aspx
   Ryan Bodanyi
   National Grassroots Organizer
   Great Lakes Regional Center - Ann Arbor, MI
   Contact
   Ryan Bodanyi is the National Grassroots Organizer for the National
   Wildlife Federation.

   Ryan mobilizes NWF supporters to take action in support of comprehensive
   climate and clean energy legislation.

   A lifelong Michigan resident, Ryan graduated with a degree in
   Environmental Public Policy from the University of Michigan before
   founding Students for Bhopal, which organized support for the survivors of
   the 1984 chemical disaster in Bhopal, India.  Ryan has also worked for
   Greenpeace, Clean Water Action, and the Clean Air Task Force, and
   currently works with NWF to organize support for comprehensive climate
   change legislation.
","2010-12-23 19:45:19",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/387545_staff-ryan-bodanyi-works-for-nwf-now-.html","morson@stratfor.com","","mongoven@stratfor.com,morson@stratfor.com,defeo@stratfor.com,pubpolblog.post@blogger.com",""
387684,"=?Windows-1252?B?UmU6IFtDVF1bT1NdIElDRUxBTkQvVVMvTUlMIC0gVmljdG9yeSBmb3IgV2lraUxlYWtzIGluIEljZWxhbmSScyBQYXJsaWFtZW50?=
","   Who funds WikiLeaks? Could this be a Russian front company? The dude needs
   to be locked up.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2010 13:07:57 -0500
   To: CT AOR<ct@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [CT] [OS] ICELAND/US/MIL - Victory for WikiL eaks in
   Iceland's Parliament
   Note the analysis at the very bottom, this won't keep people like
   Wikileaks protected, but it will help. 

   Daniel Ben-Nun wrote:

                 Victory for WikiLeaks in Iceland's Parliament

     By ROBERT MACKEY

     An Al Jazeera English video report explained the Icelandic Modern Media
     Initiative in March.

     At 4 a.m. on Thursday, at the end of an all-night session, Iceland's
     Parliament, the Althing, voted unanimously in favor of a package of
     legislation aimed at making the country a haven for freedom of
     expression by offering legal protection to whistle-blower Web sites like
     WikiLeaks, which helped to craft the proposal.

     As the Web site Ice News reports, \"One of the inspirations for the
     proposal was the dramatic August 2009 gagging of of Iceland's national
     broadcaster, RUV by Iceland's then largest bank, Kaupthing.\"

     One of the sponsors of the proposal in the Althing, Birgitta Jonsdottir,
     told my colleague Noam Cohen in February that Iceland hoped to become
     \"the inverse of a tax haven,\" by offering journalists and publishers
     some of the most aggressive protections for free speech and
     investigative journalism in the world. \"They are trying to make
     everything opaque,\" she said. \"We are trying to make it transparent.\"

     As Mr. Cohen explained in an article on the package of laws that passed
     on Thursday:

         The proposal, the Icelandic Modern Media Initiative, combines in a
     single piece of legislation provisions from around the world:
     whistle-blower laws and rules about Internet providers from the United
     States; source protection laws from Belgium; freedom of information laws
     from Estonia and Scotland, among others; and New York State's law to
     counteract \"libel tourism,\" the practice of suing in courts, like
     Britain's, where journalists have the hardest time prevailing. [...]

         The plan to make Iceland a world leader in journalism protection
     took shape in December with the assistance of two leaders of the
     whistle-blower Web site WikiLeaks.org, Julian Assange and Daniel
     Schmitt, whose publish-nearly-anything ideology has given them personal
     experience with news media laws around the globe.

     On Tuesday, Philip Shenon of The Daily Beast reported that Mr. Assange
     had told supporters that the site would soon release another video of an
     American military strike that killed civilians:

         After several days underground, the founder of the secretive Web
     site WikiLeaks has gone public to disclose that he is preparing to
     release a classified Pentagon video of a U.S. airstrike in Afghanistan
     last year that left as many as 140 civilians dead, most of them children
     and teenagers.

         In an e-mail message obtained by The Daily Beast that was sent to
     WikiLeaks supporters in the United States Tuesday, Julian Assange, the
     Web site's Australian-born founder, also defends a 22-year-old Army
     intelligence specialist who is now under arrest in Kuwait on charges
     that he leaked classified Pentagon combat videos, as well as 260,000
     State Department cables, to WikiLeaks.

     It is not yet clear how much help the new legislation will provide to
     foreign journalists trying to shield themselves behind Icelandic law. As
     the Nieman Journalism Lab notes:
         In his analysis of the proposal - \"Fortress Iceland? Probably Not.\"
     - Arthur Bright of the Citizen Media Law Project has noted that in one
     major test case of cross-border online libel law, \"publication\" was
     deemed to occur at the point of download - meaning that serving a
     controversial page from Iceland won't keep you from getting sued in
     other countries. But if nothing else, it would probably prevent your
     servers from being forcibly shut down.
     Monroe Price, who runs a program in comparative media law at the
     University of Oxford, told The Independent in London, \"As an exercise in
     aspirations, it's a bold and important endeavor.\" But, he added, \"if
     it's a significant issue like a national security question, then the
     charging jurisdiction will figure out ways of asserting its power.\"

     --
     Daniel Ben-Nun
     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-06-17 20:15:31",1,"2012-02-29 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/387684_-windows-1252-b.html","burton@stratfor.com","","ct@stratfor.com",""
388134,"Yes Men monitoring 03-25-11
","   Yes Man Mike Bonanno (Igor Vamos) was to give a lecture on 3/24 at Temple
   University in Philadelphia. The event was sponsored by \"Produce
   Exhibitions, The Temple Film Department, and The Tyler Art History
   Department.\" No details of the presentation were offered.

   -       A screening of The Yes Men Fix The World is scheduled as a
   follow-up event on 3/28.

   -       The Yes Men's booking agency Evil Twin Booking is based in
   Philadelphia.

   Regards,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-03-25 18:10:11",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/388134_yes-men-monitoring-03-25-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","mkolleth@dow.com,sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
388336,"Bhopal update - 12-21-10
","   Scot, Tomm,

   PTI issued a short review of the year's top media stories and titled it
   \"Bhopal gas verdict, compensation issues made headlines in MP.\" The first
   half of the article summarizes the Bhopal court verdicts for the former
   UCIL officials including Keshub Mahindra, the issue of Warren Anderson's
   departure from India, and that the \"compensation issue is yet to be
   settled.\"  The latter cites Abdul Jabbar on the shortcomings of the
   enhanced compensation package. Multiple pickups through India media
   websites.

   http://news.in.msn.com/national/article.aspx?cp-documentid=4724505

   The Hindu's front page of the Delhi and Mumbai editions includes an
   article on the BJP criticizing the Congress party on numerous fronts. The
   story reported comments from BJP leader Nirmala Sitharaman at a press
   conference. Among other topics, he referred to Congress'
   \"[allowing]...William [sic] Anderson...chief of Union Carbide to get
   away.\" Full text available on request.

   The only activist communication at this time is one new tweet from Colin
   Toogood: \"In US? This might be worth looking at\" includes a link to an
   online petition through the Consumer Wellness Center with an appeal to
   \"Stop HR 2751 Food Safety Act.\" There is no indication of any connection
   between the BMA and activism on the FSA. The issue named is that the bill
   could interfere somehow with \"access to locally grown fresh produce.\"

   Please note: AIM will be closing for the Christmas and New Year holidays
   on Wed., Dec. 22 at 3PM Eastern and reopen on Mon., Jan. 3 at 8AM.

   A weekly monitoring report will be issued on Wednesday. Monitoring will
   continue on a limited scale through the holidays with occasional reports
   issued as necessary.

   Please let me know if you require any other arrangements.

   Merry Christmas,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2010-12-21 17:22:17",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/388336_bhopal-update-12-21-10-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
389024,"Yes Men monitoring 05-06-11
","   Several media items had Yes Men content:

   -       Toronto's York University announced Andy Bichlbaum will be the
   keynote speaker for the Digital Activism and the Environment portion of
   the 2011 Summer Institute in Film to be held May 11 to 17 at the school.
   Bichlbaum will tailor the Yes Men's lecture into \"The Yes Men Fix Canada\"
   on May 11 at Ontario College of Art & Design University Auditorium. A Yes
   Lab will also be held for students attending the institute. Dow is noted
   in the enthusiastically complimentary press release as one of the Yes
   Men's \"legendary\" identity correction targets.

   http://news.yorku.ca/2011/05/03/digital-activism-the-environment-york-university%E2%80%99s-summer-institute-in-film-features-the-yes-men/

   -       A press advisory from the Stedelijk Museum in Amsterdam, the
   Netherlands announced Yes Man Mike Bonanno will appear there on May 27 for
   the Artists in Public lecture series. Bonanno will appear with Nomeda &
   Gediminas Urbonas, a husband-and-wife team of artists from Lithuania. They
   were part of a group that they established the JUTEMPUS exhibition space
   in Vilnius in 1993.

   http://museumpublicity.com/2011/04/30/stedelijk-museum-amsterdam-hosts-april-30-2011-skor-foundation-for-art-and-public-domain-stedelijk-museum-amsterdam-artists-in-public-3-lecture/

   -       The Nation magazine's website has a current blog post on the US
   Uncut activist group that notes the Yes Men were involved with the \"GE tax
   rebate\" prank on April 15.

   http://www.thenation.com/blog/160301/no-future-no-peace

   -       The Chicago Journal, a Chicago Loop media site, reported last
   week's Midwest Generation announcement of a power plant in a South Loop
   neighborhood was a hoax. A Chicago Public Radio reporter was credited with
   \"grilling\" activist Sam Sommers it was revealed Sommers' real name is
   Lindsey Dietzler. Dietzler said \"he was inspired to stage the whole thing
   by workshops taught by political performance artists The Yes Men.\"
   Alderman Bob Fioretti said the action \"seriously undercut\" the work of
   those who are trying to \"clean up Chicago's power plants.\"

   http://www.chicagojournal.com/News/In-The-Paper/05-04-2011/South_Loop_power_plant_debunked_as_a_hoax

   -       The Knoxville (TN) News-Sentinel published a commentary by PR
   professional Mary Beth West, who criticized Andy Bichlbaum's appearance at
   the University of Tennessee in March as damaging to journalistic ethics
   and teaching wrong thinking to students. West also criticized the
   university for allowing the presentation without an appropriate
   counterpoint \"about the consequences of flagrant dishonesty as a modus
   operandi.\"

   http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2011/may/01/deceptive-practices-troubling/

   The Yes Men themselves have been quiet this week.

   Regards,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-05-06 21:08:54",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389024_yes-men-monitoring-05-06-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","mkolleth@dow.com,sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
389297,"Bhopal update- 03-03-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   Things are much quieter today on the Bhopal issue.

   Bhopal Central Chronicle and the Daily Pioneer both posted articles
   sourced from PTI on the ICJB protest against Dow participating in the
   Aquatech trade show. BCC's piece was quite short; the Pioneer posted an
   abbreviated version of the longer PTI wire piece from Wednesday afternoon.

   http://dailypioneer.com/321593/Gas-survivors-lash-out-at-Centre-Maharashtra-Govts.html

   Daily Pioneer also posted for the Bhopal edition of its website media
   today a short version of Tuesday's ICJB press release criticizing the
   BMHRC's practices in drug trials that included gas victims.

   http://dailypioneer.com/321607/Gas-victims-allege-they-were-being-used-as-guinea-pigs.html

   French media site Journal del Environment posted an article on the
   upcoming ICMR report on cancer incidence in Bhopal and possible links to
   MIC gas exposure. This article has a response from Sarangi criticizing the
   findings. He said data was only collected at \"5 of the 64 hospitals and
   clinics that should have been followed.  There is also a problem of data
   presentation, they talk about contaminated areas instead of talking to
   people affected by the gas.  Finally, in this report, no mention is made
   of pollution lanappe table.\"

   http://www.journaldelenvironnement.net/article/bhopal-la-ville-des-cancers,21879

   Also, NYT reporter Eric Lipton wrote an article on Louisiana charity the
   Jindal Foundation, to which Dow contributed $100,000. The paragraph on Dow
   noted neither it nor UCC have been fined for a December 2009 chemical
   spill in St. Charles parish, despite the state proposing a fine for the
   companies. The article as a whole questions whether companies are
   influencing Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal through the charitable
   foundation, which is run under his wife's name.

   http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/03/us/politics/03jindal.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

   Things are also quiet on the activist end.

   -       Dharmesh Shah emailed the ICJB distribution list with the IBNS
   articles on the Aquatech trade show.

   -       Colin Toogood, who had yesterday tweeted with excitement about
   Aquatech dissociating from Dow, followed it up with one expressing
   disappointment on the show officials refuting the ICJB's press
   announcement.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-03-03 17:14:57",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389297_bhopal-update-03-03-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
389346,"Bhopal update - 01-27-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   Colin Toogood posted on Twitter and Facebook calls for readers to \"rate\"
   the Bhopali documentary on the Slamdance Film Festival website. So far,
   there are 41 reviews posted - most are just a single statement and the
   vast majority are complimentary. There is a post from BMA praising
   Carlson's work and promoting the BMA website. The full list of reviews
   will be provided later in the day.

   -       Toogood also posted links to the BMA profile of gardener Ratna;
   the BMA Wordpress blog, which has two new links; and a pickup of the
   Project Censored article that has been reported here previously.

   -       The BMA Wordpress updates are a link to the Times of India article
   on \"imposters\" of gas-affected patients receiving care at the BMHRC, and
   one of archived Bhopal photos on India Today.

   Amnesty USA groups, AID and other non-resident Indian organizations in the
   US continue to post notices of protests and rallies in support of Binayak
   Sen this week through Sunday, Jan. 30.

   In the media,

   -       Indian Express reported the Reserve Bank of India       listed
   Environment & Forests Minister Jairam Ramesh's \"environment-sensitive
   policies\" as a factor in \"an almost 36 percent dip\" in Foreign Direct
   Investment (FDI). The article itself did not mention Bhopal, but it drew
   more than a dozen comments, one of which was apparently from ICJB
   member/environmental reporter Nityanand Jayaraman, who did bring up
   Bhopal. The comments as a whole praised Ramesh's policies and credited the
   FDI reduction to \"rampant government corruption.\"

   http://www.indianexpress.com/news/rbi-blames-jairams-policies-for-fdi-dip/742560/0

   -       Charleston Gazette published an op-ed on Bayer ending MIC
   production, by hazmat consultant Fred Millar. He called for stricter
   government regulations on \"ultrahazardous\" materials and facilities.
   Bhopal was mentioned in reference to the having the \"same ultrahazarodous
   bulk storage process\" as the Institute plant.

   http://wvgazettemail.com/Opinion/OpEdCommentaries/201101260960

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-01-27 18:05:28",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389346_bhopal-update-01-27-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
389625,"Re: Insight- Sharif Mobley
","   And Stratfor

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"scott stewart\" <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 9 Apr 2010 08:00:38 -0400
   To: 'Aaron Colvin'<aaron.colvin@stratfor.com>; 'Fred
   Burton'<burton@stratfor.com>
   Subject: RE: Insight- Sharif Mobley

   It is not unusual for nuts to gravitate to places like Yemen and groups
   like AQAP.

    

    

    

   From: Aaron Colvin [mailto:aaron.colvin@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, April 09, 2010 6:44 AM
   To: scott stewart; Fred Burton
   Subject: Insight- Sharif Mobley

    

   Heard from a very reliable source close to the folks who debriefed Mobely
   that the dude's a] bat shit crazy; and b] he's going to die here. USG is
   convinced that they're going to kill him. Also, he was not part of AQAP.
   Security simply picked him up on suspicions and his shady affiliations.
   Apparently, when they debriefed him he was singing Lionel Richie and
   cracking odd jokes the whole time, either aware or simply unaware that
   they're either going to throw him off a roof [common practice here] or
   they'll put him face down with an AK round to the back of the head.

   Running to another meeting. Call me if you need anything.
","2010-04-09 14:01:38",1,"2012-02-29 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389625_re-insight-sharif-mobley-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","scott.stewart@stratfor.com,aaron.colvin@stratfor.com",""
389743,"Re: Cavuto
","   Border violence

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"scott stewart\" <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>
   Date: Wed, 5 May 2010 16:31:11 -0400
   To: <burton@stratfor.com>
   Subject: RE: Cavuto

   What did you talk about.

    

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, May 05, 2010 4:27 PM
   To: Kyle Rhodes; Grant Perry
   Cc: Korena Zucha; Anya Alfano; Scott Stewart
   Subject: Fw: Cavuto

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: <Tony.Vermillion@emerson.com>

   Date: Wed, 5 May 2010 20:25:39 +0000

   To: <burton@stratfor.com>

   Subject: Cavuto

    

   Fred,

    

   Just saw you on Cavuto - good job.  Very few people get this - the only
   way to turn the tide is education and lots of military presence.

    

   Thanks,

    

   Tony Vermillion

   Emerson Global Security

   (314) 553-2461

   tony.vermillion@emerson.com

    

    
","2010-05-05 22:31:59",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389743_re-cavuto-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","scott.stewart@stratfor.com",""
389793,"","   A hero?
    Avaaz is right.  It's not illegal but it does make you accessory to being
   an asshole. Real people are being tortured by governments that Avaaz and
   Assange probably like more than the US, all the while the two of them
   denounce US 'torture' at Guantanamo.  
   They are like the crazy IPS/CISPES/SDS people who were so full of hate
   that they could not see that they are doing so much more bad than they at
   doing good.
   I'm in favor of using whatever trumped up charge is available to get this
   guy and his servers off the streets.  And I'd feed that shit head soldier
   to the first pack of wild dogs I could find.
   Or perhaps just do to him whatever the Iranians are doing to our sources
   there.

   On Dec 9, 2010, at 7:22 PM, Kathleen Morson <morson@stratfor.com> wrote:

     Got this today from Avaaz.  This reminds me of a item I saw on the local
     news last night - Berkeley is gearing up for a resolution calling
     Manning a hero.

     --------

     Dear friends,

     The chilling intimidation campaign against WikiLeaks (when they have
     broken no laws) is an attack on freedom of the press and democracy. We
     urgently need a massive public outcry to stop the crackdown -- let's get
     to 1 million voices and take out full page ads in US newspapers this
     week! 

     The massive campaign of intimidation against WikiLeaks is sending a
     chill through free press advocates everywhere.

     Legal experts say WikiLeaks has likely broken no laws. Yet top US
     politicians have called it a terrorist group and commentators have urged
     assassination of its staff. The organization has come under massive
     government and corporate attack, but WikiLeaks is only publishing
     information provided by a whistleblower. And it has partnered with the
     world's leading newspapers (NYT, Guardian, Spiegel etc) to carefully vet
     the information it publishes.

     The massive extra-judicial intimidation of WikiLeaks is an attack on
     democracy. We urgently need a public outcry for freedom of the press and
     expression. Sign the petition to stop the crackdown and forward this
     email to everyone -- let's get to 1 million voices and take out full
     page ads in US newspapers this week!

     http://www.avaaz.org/en/wikileaks_petition/?vl

     WikiLeaks isn't acting alone -- it's partnered with the top newspapers
     in the world (New York Times, The Guardian, Der Spiegel, etc) to
     carefully review 250,000 US diplomatic cables and remove any information
     that it is irresponsible to publish. Only 800 cables have been published
     so far. Past WikiLeaks publications have exposed government-backed
     torture, the murder of innocent civilians in Iraq and Afghanistan, and
     corporate corruption.

     The US government is currently pursuing all legal avenues to stop
     WikiLeaks from publishing more cables, but the laws of democracies
     protect freedom of the press. The US and other governments may not like
     the laws that protect our freedom of expression, but that's exactly why
     it's so important that we have them, and why only a democratic process
     can change them.

     Reasonable people can disagree on whether WikiLeaks and the leading
     newspapers it's partnered with are releasing more information than the
     public should see. Whether the releases undermine diplomatic
     confidentiality and whether that's a good thing. Whether WikiLeaks
     founder Julian Assange has the personal character of a hero or a
     villain. But none of this justifies a vicious campaign of intimidation
     to silence a legal media outlet by governments and corporations. Click
     below to join the call to stop the crackdown:

     http://www.avaaz.org/en/wikileaks_petition/?vl

     Ever wonder why the media so rarely gives the full story of what happens
     behind the scenes? This is why - because when they do, governments can
     be vicious in their response. And when that happens, it's up to the
     public to stand up for our democratic rights to a free press and freedom
     of expression. Never has there been a more vital time for us to do so.

     With hope,
     Ricken, Emma, Alex, Alice, Maria Paz and the rest of the Avaaz team.

     SOURCES:

     Law experts say WikiLeaks in the clear (ABC)
     http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2010/s3086781.htm

     WikiLeaks are a bunch of terrorists, says leading U.S. congressman (Mail
     Online)
     http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1333879/WikiLeaks-terrorists-says-leading-US-congressman-Peter-King.html

     Cyber guerrillas can help US (Financial Times)
     http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d3dd7c40-ff15-11df-956b-00144feab49a.html#axzz17QvQ4Ht5

     Amazon drops WikiLeaks under political pressure (Yahoo)
     http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20101201/tc_afp/usdiplomacyinternetwikileakscongressamazon

     \"WikiLeaks avenged by hacktivists\" (PC World):
     http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/212701/operation_payback_wikileaks_avenged_by_hacktivists.html

     US Gov shows true control over Internet with WikiLeaks containment
     (Tippett.org)
     http://www.tippett.org/2010/12/us-gov-shows-true-control-over-internet-with-wikileaks-containment/

     US embassy cables culprit should be executed, says Mike Huckabee (The
     Guardian)
     http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/01/us-embassy-cables-executed-mike-huckabee

     WikiLeaks ditched by MasterCard, Visa. Who's next? (The Christian
     Science Monitor)
     http://www.csmonitor.com/Innovation/Horizons/2010/1207/WikiLeaks-ditched-by-MasterCard-Visa.-Who-s-next

     Assange's Interpol Warrant Is for Having Sex Without a Condom (The
     Slatest)
     http://slatest.slate.com/id/2276690/

     Support the Avaaz community! We're entirely funded by donations and
     receive no money from governments or corporations. Our dedicated team
     ensures even the smallest contributions go a long way -- donate here.
","2010-12-10 03:34:36",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389793_.html","mongoven@stratfor.com","","morson@stratfor.com,defeo@stratfor.com,pubpolblog.post@blogger.com",""
389807,"Bhopal update - 03-30-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   There is very little to report at this time. New media is negligible -
   only a few mentions of the Bhopal gas accident as a point of reference.

   Colin Toogood posted a few items on the BMA Facebook and Twitter accounts,
   including basic event details for the April 7 screening of the Bhopali
   film at UC Berkeley - 6 p.m. in Boalt Hall, Room 105, Berkeley School of
   Law.

   -       Toogood also posted the CBI extradition approval came from the
   \"Indian Supreme Court,\" when he linked to a 3/23 media item reporting the
   decision came from the CMM.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-03-30 17:01:29",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389807_bhopal-update-03-30-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
389850,"Update: Yes Men monitoring - 03-15-11
","   The CM-Life website now has a report posted from Bichlbaum's appearance
   Monday evening.

   CMU Art Gallery Director Anne Gochenour said \"protest art\" is the current
   season's theme for the Dept. of Art's Barstow Lecture series. She said the
   Yes Men \"bring light to the dishonesty they find in marketing and
   business.\"

   The article reported Bichlbaum described the Yes Men's Bhopal/BBC action
   as an example of the hoaxes they conduct, and that he said, \"We want to
   put pressure on companies to do the right thing.\"

   Many of the attendees were art students on class assignments and free
   entertainment, and that some professors used the lecture as a substitute
   for regularly scheduled classes.

   http://www.cm-life.com/2011/03/15/73415/

    

   Regards,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-03-15 21:05:43",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389850_update-yes-men-monitoring-03-15-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
389910,"Bhopal update - 03-21-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   The Associated Press reported late this morning Judge Goodwin has granted
   the plaintiffs in Nye v. Bayer CropScience 20 days to modify their
   complaint against the company. According to plaintiffs' attorney William
   DePaulo, this is about possible claims of property damages and medical
   monitoring that were mentioned in last week's media.

   http://www.wvgazette.com/ap/ApTopStories/201103210467

   Other monitoring has been fairly quiet.

   -       Colin Toogood posted a few tweets - runner Jenny Hards raised 120
   pounds for the BMA by running the Lisbon Half Marathon on Sunday; he
   \"liked\" two Yes Men videos on YouTube; and he posted links to Friday's AP
   story about Bayer's decision not to produce MIC, the Hindu piece on the
   Bhopal photo exhibit at Chennai, and Max Carlson's petition to Pres.
   Obama.

   -       A US community of arts media known as EDGE has posted the
   Philadelphia CineFest press release that mentions the Bhopali film will be
   screened there. The press release was on several EDGE city websites
   including New York and Boston.

   -       Hawaii News Now Blog posted an article on \"Exxon, Bhopal, Tepco
   and executive responsibility\" that includes a paragraph on Warren Anderson
   that is fairly sympathetic in tone. The writer mentioned an NYT article in
   which \"Anderson said he had become a recluse because he felt it would
   dishonor those killed to be seen enjoying, say, a meal in a restaurant.\"

   http://blogs.hawaiinewsnow.com/howard/2011/03/exxon-bhopal-tepso-and-executive-responsibility.html?cid=6a01287768a2b5970c0147e35a81d7970b

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-03-21 17:51:59",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389910_bhopal-update-03-21-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
389922,"Yes Men monitoring 03-04-11
","   The Yes Men have been communicating this week about supporting environment
   activist Tim DeChristopher during his trial in Utah this week on charges
   of false representation during a 2008 Bureau of Land Management land
   auction. The Yes Men posted on their blog and tweeted about
   DeChristopher's trial, and ended the blog post with \"With any luck, we'll
   be back in touch soon with news of some great new opportunities.\"

   -       There has been no follow-up reporting from the Yes Lab event in
   New York City last Saturday. The topic was to have been a company in the
   food industry. Whether or not it is connected, Global Exchange emailed an
   invitation to participate in an action targeting Hershey Chocolate Co.
   about unfair labor practices in cocoa production.

   Yes Men appearances

   -       March 8, Albany, NY - Mike Bonanno to present on Guerilla Media
   101 at the Sanctuary for Independent Media,.

   -       March 10, Knoxville, TN - Bonanno and Bichlbaum are to conduct a
   \"pranking workshop\" at the Univ. of Tenn and do a \"presentation\" The YM
   film will be shown on March 7 as a preview event.

   http://www.knoxville.com/news/2011/feb/27/art-theater-briefs/?partner=RSS

   Media

   3/1 The UK Guardian's Ecologist publication included an interview with the
   YM in NYC. Most of the content is the usual description of the pair and
   their efforts, with the obligatory mention of the BBC/Bhopal hoax as one
   that generated ripples in the media and financial markets. The Yes Men are
   noted as being involved with USunCut, an activist movement targeting the
   financial and tax institutions. (This group was behind recent protests
   targeting the World Bank and Bank of America.)

   http://www.theecologist.org/how_to_make_a_difference/climate_change_and_energy/792772/they_took_on_dow_and_halliburton_but_who_are_the_yes_men.html

   3/4 The Albany (NY) Times-Union included Bonanno's 3/8 engagement in its
   arts event listings.

   http://www.timesunion.com/entertainment/article/Scene-Heard-1040717.php

   The Kansan, Univ. of Kansas daily media, published both a preview and
   event report on the 2/27 screening of the YM film.

   http://www.kansan.com/news/2011/feb/27/truth-seekers-put-political-activism-film/

   Film screenings

   4/27 Lynchburg, VA -Lynchburg College will show the YM film as part of its
   Year of Sustainability Film Series; a \"short\" discussion may follow.

   4/29, Geneva, IL - the United Church of Christ will show the YM film as
   part of its Justice Movie Series

   Regards,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-03-04 21:41:54",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389922_yes-men-monitoring-03-04-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","mkolleth@dow.com,sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
389943,"Bhopal update - 03-07-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   Colin Toogood tweeted a link to a CNN-IBN Special Report video on the
   BMHRC drug trials the Bhopal NGOs say used gas victims as \"human guinea
   pigs.\" The tone of the 3-minute piece is accusatory and demanding but does
   not mention Dow or focus on the gas accident itself. The figures
   previously released by the ICJB from RTI documents on the drug trials are
   presented again, with one case story of \"Laxmi\" and her husband, who has
   died. He was found to have been part of a drug trial following a visit to
   the hospital for heart problems.

   http://ibnlive.in.com/videos/144814/bhopal-gas-victims-guinea-pigs-for-drug-trials.html

   -       Toogood also tweeted a link to last week's press release about Dow
   as a sponsor of the Special Olympics World Summer Games.

   Hindustan Times published an opinion piece by Delhi-based political
   commentator Ashok Malik about the \"curious choice\" of Parliament in
   turning down PJ Thomas for India's Central Vigiliance Commissioner (CVC).
   While Justice JS Verma was apparently selected for the post, Justice AH
   Ahmadi was also proposed. Malik pointed out Ahmadi's controversial
   position as chair of BMHRC during the time the above-mentioned drug trials
   took place.

   http://www.hindustantimes.com/A-curious-choice/Article1-670250.aspx

   In activist information:

   -       AID Boston has been deemed the host chapter for the organization's
   North American annual conference on Memorial Day weekend.

   -       Diane Wilson will be the keynote speaker on Saturday, March 12 at
   the Environmental Action 2011 conference at Bentley University in Waltham,
   MA.

   -       The BMA website has only been updated with three more sections
   from Sarangi's book introduction: \"Double standards of safety,\" \"Profit
   before people,\" and \"A disaster waiting to happen.\"

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-03-07 17:18:28",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/389943_bhopal-update-03-07-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
390036,"Bhopal update - 04-13-11 afternoon
","   Scot, Tomm,

   In today's print media, there were six appearances, all somewhat short.
   Three appeared above the fold: The Pioneer published \"Govt seeks harsher
   penalty for accused, files curative plea in SC\" at the top of page 5; The
   Hindu published \"Hearing today on curative petitions in Bhopal gas case\"
   at the top of page 15; and The Times of India Mumbai edition published
   \"Who negotiated paltry Bhopal deal?\" at the top of page 16. Three appeared
   below the fold: The Asian Age published \"Centre, MP failed to consult
   people panels\" at the bottom of page 8; and The Hindustan Times New Delhi
   and Mumbai editions published a two sentence mention of the upcoming
   hearing on the bottom of pages 8 and 9, respectively.

   In activist news:

   The Bhopal Medical Appeal shared a link to its site on the social media
   news site Reddit.com. As of this report, it had a positive rating of 732
   points, showing 64% approval. 
   http://www.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/comments/gndnt/til_that_in_1984_a_union_carbide_plant_in_bhopal/

   Regards,

   Marissa Martin

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-04-13 17:50:13",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/390036_bhopal-update-04-13-11-afternoon-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
390037,"Bhopal update - 01-20-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   LiveMint referred to the Bhopal gas accident in an article about
   preferential treatment of an Indian diplomat accused of assaulting his
   wife. This also appeared on an interior page of the epaper.

   http://www.indiainfoline.com/Markets/News/Immunity-from-justice/5058751852

   UMass - Amherst news announced a new science curriculum designed to
   address \"real world problems,\" one of which is noted to be the \"Bhopal
   disaster.\" I will look into this further.

   http://www.umass.edu/loop/talkingpoints/articles/119266.php

   Colin Toogood posted tweets and on Facebook about the Daily Pioneer report
   of gas NGO BGPSSS protesting a week ago at the Bhopal Memorial Hospital,
   and also offered links to YouTube for an Annie Leonard video. The links do
   not provide her content, so am unable to determine what was Toogood's
   point.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-01-20 15:22:27",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/390037_bhopal-update-01-20-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
390072,"Yes Men monitoring 04-01-11
","   The Kalamazoo Gazette reported Mike Bonanno (Igor Vamos) spoke on 3/29 at
   Western Michigan University's Miller Auditorium as the keynote for the
   Kalamazoo Peace Center's 30th Annual Peace Week.

   KPC spokesman Ben Ayer said Bonanno would \"talk about journalism in a free
   society, recognizing media spin versus good reporting, truth versus
   perception in political theater, good data collection research and
   analysis techniques.\"

   The Gazette included three paragraphs describing the 1984 Bhopal action
   and referred to \"DOW\" (all caps) Chemical multiple times.

   http://www.mlive.com/news/kalamazoo/index.ssf/2011/03/yes_men_to_speak_at_western_mi.html

   -       The event was listed on the WMU website as part of Monday's news.
   It is not clear whether this is part of the school's print news. This
   announcement includes Ayer's description of Bonanno's 90-minute
   presentation, but does not mention Dow at all.

   Bonanno is to be joined by Tim DeChristopher, the activist who was
   recently convicted on charges of fraud for disrupting a federal oil and
   gas lease auction.

   The Yes Men Fix the World trailer is also offered on the web page.

   http://www.wmich.edu/wmu/news/2011/03/078.shtml

   -       There does not appear to have been any follow up media on the
   event.

   The NY Protest message board posted that \"The Yes Men\" and Tim
   DeChristopher will appear this afternoon from 4 - 6:30 p.m. at the
   Gallatin Theatre in NYC. The event is to be \"an interactive workshop and
   brainstorm.\" The contact for the event is Ashwini Srinivasamohan, NYU
   Sustainability program assistant, Outreach and Engagement.

   The Yes Men tweeted about being part of a new book titled \"The Next
   Eco-Warriors: 22 Young Men and Women Who Are Saving the Planet.\" The book
   by Emily Hunter and Farley Mowat does include a chapter on the Yes Men. It
   is to be released on April 22, in observance of Earth Day. Hunter is the
   daughter of \"Greenpeace co-founders Robert and Bobbi Hunter.\" The book's
   listing on Amazon.com can be seen here:

   http://www.amazon.com/dp/1573244864/ref=tsm_1_fb_lk#_

   Regards,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-04-01 21:26:58",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/390072_yes-men-monitoring-04-01-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","mkolleth@dow.com,sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
390080,"Bhopal update - 03-16-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   The Central Michigan Life report on Jacques Servin's presentation to CMU
   students on Monday now has a 1-minute video accompanying the print story.

   He talked briefly about the goal of \"bringing under-reported news into the
   spotlight\" and mentioned the Bhopal/BBC action, saying \"they got onto BBC
   posing as a spokesman for the Dow Chemical Corporation.\" Some of the video
   appears to be a direct interview with the reporter, some is of the
   lecture.

   -       Colin Toogood posted the link to the CM-Life story on the BMA's
   Twitter account.

   http://vimeo.com/21077015

   A Nashville \"Scene\" entertainment media event posting announced Bonanno
   and Bichlbaum's engagement at Vanderbilt Univ. tonight.

   http://www.nashvillescene.com/pitw/archives/2011/03/16/pick-of-the-day-the-yes-men-at-vanderbilt

   Media

   IBN-Live reported on the ICMR's cancer assessment in Bhopal, that cancer
   rates increased more than 70% from 1989-2008 \"in areas affected by\" MIC.
   Two doctors quoted said MIC can't be ruled out when considering causes of
   cancer.

   http://ibnlive.in.com/news/bhopal-gas-tragedy-cancer-rates-treble/146063-3.html

   Times of India published an article titled \"Like Bhopal, Fukushima may
   haunt future.\" As with the majority of recent articles on the nuclear
   crisis in Japan, the Bhopal gas tragedy is cited, but that is all.

   -       This article was posted on the BMA website today as new \"news.\"

   http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Like-Bhopal-Fukushima-may-haunt-future/articleshow/7714818.cms

   MoneyLife magazine published the next installment of \"how to\" articles on
   use of the RTI act. The author is again Vinita Deshmuhk, who offered
   instructions on \"writing a letter to the authorities for inspection of
   files under Section 4 of the RTI Act.\" She related the communication steps
   she took \"in the case of Dow\" when requesting to see government files, and
   noted a letter template has since been devised.

   http://www.moneylife.in/article/on-writing-a-letter-to-the-authorities-for-inspection-of-files-under-section-4-of-the-rti-act/14783.html

   The Weekend Leader, an Indian publication, posted a profile of Alok Pratap
   Singh titled \"Bhopal gas victims see some hope as Alok Pratap Singh's
   fight yields fruit.\" The article appears to be from January, as the legal
   system information is on the MP HC's orders to Dow to present the UCC
   merger documentation and to the GoI's Task Force on the steps taken for
   \"removing toxic waste from the infamous plant.\"

   http://www.theweekendleader.com/page.php?cy=Crusade&title=Smelling-success&id=371

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-03-16 16:32:20",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/390080_bhopal-update-03-16-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
391125,"ENB Vol. 25 No. 66 - UNGA Working Group on Marine Biodiversity - Issue #1
","","2011-05-31 03:56:10",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/391125_enb-vol-25-no-66-unga-working-group-on-marine-biodiversity.html","iisd-rs@iisd.org","","enb@lists.iisd.ca","attach/33/33586_image006.gif
attach/33/33588_image008.png
attach/33/33589_image009.gif
attach/33/33590_image014.jpg
attach/33/33591_image013.jpg
attach/33/33592_image003.gif
attach/33/33594_image007.jpg
attach/33/33595_image011.gif
attach/33/33596_image002.jpg
attach/33/33597_image010.gif
attach/33/33598_image001.jpg
attach/33/33599_image005.gif
attach/33/33600_image012.gif
attach/33/33601_image004.gif
attach/33/33793_image013.jpg
attach/33/33796_image014.png"
391208,"Bhopal update - 05-11-11 Media #1
","   Scot, Tomm,

   Global and Indian wire services have reported on the Indian Supreme Court
   decision to dismiss the CBI petition for enhancing the criminal charges
   for the Bhopal gas tragedy against the UCIL officials. It is reported that
   the MP Sessions Court still has the option to reframe the charges.

   The activists and gas NGOs are predictably upset, charging the Indian
   government and CBI with denying justice for the victims and pledging to
   renew their efforts.

   Associated Press, Agence France Presse and Reuters all included mentions
   of Dow's position on the Bhopal issue; initial reports from Indian wire
   services did not mention Dow.

   -       Associated Press briefly reported the situation that resulted in
   the curative petition, then the SC's decision to deny the CBI's request on
   the grounds it \"never gave a sufficient explanation for why it had waited
   14 years to reinstate the stronger charges to gain longer sentences.\"
   Rachna Dhingra was the only activist quoted, lamenting, \"Once again the
   Bhopal gas tragedy victims are being denied justice.\" The curative
   petition for increased compensation from UCC is noted as being on the SC's
   docket.

   This report is trending through US and Canadian morning media with pickups
   seen on US major media websites including WSJ, NYT, Washington Post and
   Forbes.com, although not prominently featured.

   http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/indian-supreme-court-rejects-plea-for-harsher-penalties-for-bhopal-gas-leak/2011/05/11/AFlLDhmG_story.html

   -       AFP quoted the SC opinion that \"the curative petition is based on
   a plea that is wrong and fallacious.\" Gas NGO leader Balkrishna Namdeo is
   cited along with Dhingra, relating the gas victims' \"shock\" over the
   verdict and resolution to \"express our anger across India.\" Dhingra said
   the victims are now focused on the MP state court, where the \"state
   government and police have also filed petitions...asking for harsher
   sentences.\"

   Canadian and some international pickups of this report appear to be
   trending.

   http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5h14ipR_XxVHavzLw3KnU0ULef16g?docId=CNG.a29f570c0237fa3493609b25e0f549ae.751

   -       Reuters issued a report, but there does not appear to be much
   pickup, which has been the case with this source in the past several
   months on Bhopal news.

     The piece includes a quote from the SC opinion that \"The materials
     produced do not meet the requirement (for homicide)\" and one from
     Satinath Sarangi about \"the message the Supreme Court is sending...that
     [companies] can come, you can maim, you can kill and you can get away
     with two years.\"

   http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/11/india-bhopal-court-idUSL3E7GB17420110511

   -       PTI reported Additional Solicitor General Indira Jai Singh's
   explanation on the Sessions Court's option to frame the more harsher
   charges against the UCIL officials. The activists are calling for
   day-to-day hearings in that court. This article included an expanded
   response from Sarangi, who \"alleged that the state organs, including
   judiciary, were not keen on justice to Bhopal gas victims.\"

   Several Indian major media sites posted the PTI article as the first
   report on the SC opinion.

   http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article2009088.ece

   -       IANS quoted activist leaders Abdul Jabbar and ND Jayaprakash, who
   echoed the charges of justice denied and the gas victims being \"ignored\"
   and \"denied justice.\" Jayaprakash explained the victims hopes for the MP
   government to \"set up a special court and pursue the case on a priority
   basis, possibly within the next six months the entire retrial must end.\"

   Hindustan Times and other major media sites also posted this article in
   various forms.

   http://www.inewsone.com/2011/05/11/26-years-still-no-justice-say-bhopal-survivors-activists/49656

   -       India Blooms News Service quoted Rashida Bee, who announced a
   \"rally in evening to protest the verdict,\" claimed India \"is a country
   without human rights\" and proclaimed a (somewhat dubious) comparison
   between the recent killing of Osama bin Laden by US forces and that India
   \"could let go a US company that killed so many people in Bhopal.\"

     This piece noted the renewed extradition effort for Warren Anderson.

   http://www.indiablooms.com/EnvironmentDetailsPage/environmentDetails110511d.php

   -       IANS reported the BJP responded to the SC decision as \"a `telling
   comment on the government's attitude'\" toward the Bhopal gas victims and
   that it \"is not at all interested to punish the guilty.\" BJP spokesperson
   Prakash Javadekar referred to Anderson being allowed to leave India in the
   days after the gas accident.

   http://news.webindia123.com/news/Articles/India/20110511/1747999.html

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-05-11 16:10:17",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/391208_bhopal-update-05-11-11-media-1-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
391344,"Bhopal update - 03-31-11 Media
","   Scot, Tomm,

   The morning television appearance of Max Carlson did not take place as he
   had indicated - the broadcast will be monitored again on Friday.

   In other media,

   -       Carlson was to appear on a Southern California Public Radio
   program called The Madeleine Brand Show.  A working link to hear the
   broadcast has not been located.

   http://www.scpr.org/programs/madeleine-brand/2011/03/31/bhopali/

   -       PR Web announced the launch of the online photojournalism magazine
   Auto de Fe. This is the publication for which Jack Laurenson visited
   Bhopal last year and his report is in the first edition, which is freely
   available online. Laurenson is the journalist who became ill after
   visiting the former UCIL factory site and claimed it was from toxic waste
   exposure. His report is solidly from the activist perspective, saying UCC
   \"openly dumped its highly lethal waste in the surrounding areas for
   countless years,\" using extreme adjectives to describe conditions in
   Bhopal and the parties involved in the issue. He consistently refers to
   Satinath Sarangi as \"Dr. Saringi\" and describes his interview with MP
   Minister for Bhopal Gas Relief and Rehabilitation Babulal Guar
   skeptically. The text is interspersed with Laurenson's photographs.

   http://www.prweb.com/releases/2011/3/prweb8248388.htm

   http://www.autodefe.com/articles/106861-bhopal-now-the-enduring-tragedy?sms_ss=facebook&at_xt=4d8c89bbc66bfd9b%2C0

   -       In India, IANS reported the MP state ordered Guar's department to
   pay Bhopal gas widows a pension of Rs 1,000 per month for the next five
   years.

   http://www.asianage.com/india/bhopal-gas-tragedy-widows-get-rs1000-pension-946

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-03-31 22:19:53",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/391344_bhopal-update-03-31-11-media-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
391504,"Re: Wikileaks founder currently in the U.S.
","   Is he an Aussie?

   As a foreign national, we could revoke his travel status and deport.

   Could also be taken into custody as a material witness.

   We COULD have a sealed indictment and lock him up. Depends upon how far
   along the military case is.

   Did not read the profile.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Shane Harris <shanewharris@gmail.com>
   Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2010 12:31:35 -0400
   To: burton@stratfor.com<burton@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: Wikileaks founder currently in the U.S.
   Agreed. I'm surprised he came! Did you read the New Yorker profile of him?
   He's extraordinarily paranoid. 
   Can our people detain him on anything just based on suspicion re the
   cables? Would probably be a PR nightmare for the administration. 

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Jun 11, 2010, at 12:18 PM, \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com> wrote:

     I would not be surprised the FBI talks to him while there or seizes his
     laptop...

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Shane Harris <shanewharris@gmail.com>
     Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2010 12:10:45 -0400
     To: Fred Burton<burton@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Wikileaks founder currently in the U.S.

     He's speaking on a panel today in Vegas. 
     http://data.nicar.org/conference/lasvegas10/showcase 

     --
     Shane Harris
     www.shaneharris.com
     202-489-4827 (mobile)
     202-862-3513 (office)
     Twitter: shanewharris
     Read THE WATCHERS: www.shaneharris.com/thewatchers
","2010-06-11 18:36:45",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/391504_re-wikileaks-founder-currently-in-the-u-s-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","shanewharris@gmail.com",""
391555,"Re: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
","   Maybe, but he's choked on the national stage a few times now.  I can't get
   past his smile...makes him look sleazy.

   burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Bobby Jindel? He's some sort of Indian.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
     Date: Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:58:58 -0500
     To: <burton@stratfor.com>
     Cc: Bartholomew Mongoven<mongoven@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
     Tim Pawlenty is about as close as the GOP gets to a sharp, young and
     eligible governor. 

     burton@stratfor.com wrote:

       Romney can't make it. Mormons are viewed as Voo Doo.

       We need a sharp young Governor.

       I also like Michelle Bachman.

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: \"Bartholomew Mongoven\" <mongoven@stratfor.com>
       Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 16:52:13 -0500
       To: 'Anya Alfano'<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>; <burton@stratfor.com>
       Subject: RE: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
       Pawlenty is good. 
        
       I think Romney could do it if he is himself.  He was as badly handled
       in 2008 as Al Gore was in 2000.  It should have been his nomination
       and he screwed it all up.
        
       Newt might actually pull the trigger.
        
       I think Huckabee could do it just to piss off people like me.
        
       I would tell Jeb that his time came and went when Katrina went under
       water.
        
       Frist would love to do it, but it'll take time for him to get up and
       running. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 4:46 PM
       To: burton@stratfor.com
       Cc: Bartholomew Mongoven
       Subject: Re: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
       The neocons on top of my hill all want Tim Pawlenty. 

       burton@stratfor.com wrote:

         The GOP folks I talk to are pushing Jeb Bush. I think that is a
         mistake. Who else is out there?

         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Bartholomew Mongoven\" <mongoven@stratfor.com>
         Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 16:39:03 -0500
         To: 'Anya Alfano'<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
         Cc: 'Fred Burton'<burton@stratfor.com>
         Subject: RE: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
         Depends on where you are.  In your neck of the woods, people tend to
         think no one can do the right thing in Washington.  They think the
         world here is so corrupt that progress will always be stifled by the
         moneyed interests.  (Of course, the fact is that on domestic policy,
         it's like foreign policy -- the president can have his ideals but
         there are very few things he can do that won't screw up the
         country.  So he doesn't do them.  Watch climate, for instance.  It's
         not corporate lobbying holding him from a deal, it's China.  He
         won't commit economic suicide just to make environmentalists happy. 
         The environmentalists don't think it's suicide, so they think Obama
         has sold out.  It's sad really.)
          
         I think Mrs. P is far closer to a D.C. view of things.  The liberal
         factions in DC think Obama is being a pussy.  They don't want a
         climate deal that kills the US economy and gives everything to the
         Chinese, but they want someone to stand up to the Chinese and say
         \"this is the way it's going to be.\"  From a West Coast
         liberal perspective, that's inflaming rivalry and inviting
         conflict.  From an East Coast perspective, that's the only way to
         get a climate bill.  Right now, he's not going to commit suicide
         (Bay Area approach) but he's not going to back the Chinese down
         (Mrs. P) either. 
          
         Obama needs to get in a fight and do something really mean and
         unfair to the right. (Gays in the military/revoke Don't Ask Don't
         tell). He's afraid of the backlash.  He could also tell the banks to
         go screw themselves. Either way, he needs to do something that says
         he doesn't care about losing political capital.  By front loading
         health care and climate, he made being politically safe his primary
         objective.  He doesn't think he can afford to piss people off until
         those two are done.  (Back to Emanuel, whose job is to tell him that
         he shouldn't front load all of his controversial proposals.)
          
          
          
          

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
         Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 4:17 PM
         To: Bartholomew Mongoven
         Cc: 'Fred Burton'
         Subject: Re: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
         Bart, do you believe Mrs. P's thoughts are fairly mainstream among
         Obama supporters, or are most still fairly content?  I feel like I
         hear comments similar to Mrs. P all the time on other various
         issues, but my viewpoint is probably fairly skewed.  (Marx himself
         couldn't satisfy half the people here.)

         Bartholomew Mongoven wrote:

           I don't disagree that Biden is a weasel.  I think Emanuel is
           emasculating Obama by selling him on clever Clintonesque
           tactics. I would love to see Obama with someone more principled
           and less clever as Chief of Staff.  He needs a James Baker and he
           has a Donald Regan.  At least Clinton had Panetta at first to tell
           him when to not be a pussy.  Without Panetta Clinton was just a
           great tactician but he didn't get anything done (except get
           re-elected).
            
            

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
           Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 3:58 PM
           To: 'Bartholomew Mongoven'; 'Anya Alfano'
           Subject: RE: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
           She blames Obama and Biden.  I dropped Emanuel into the soup and
           she said that he would be added to her list.  She believes Biden
           is weasel and Obama is a pussy.  I want her to fund my bid for
           Congress.  Yes, I can be bought.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Bartholomew Mongoven [mailto:mongoven@stratfor.com]
           Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 10:55 AM
           To: 'Fred Burton'; 'Anya Alfano'
           Subject: RE: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
           I remember that she had misgivings about supporting him during the
           primaries.  I assume that rather than support a challenger, she'll
           just sit out 2012 (unless Obama finds a spine).  I'd love to know
           if there was any talk about whether she and her set think it's him
           or his staff (esp. Emanuel) who is making his presidency so
           muddled so far.
            
            

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
           Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 9:02 AM
           To: 'Bartholomew Mongoven'; 'Anya Alfano'
           Subject: FW: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
           Mrs. P

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
           Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 8:01 AM
           To: 'Secure List'
           Subject: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
           From a billionaire Democratic fundraiser --
            
           The billionaire (who also funds ACORN) is greatly disappointed
           over Obama's \"weakness and wimpyness\" towards China (\"Fred, they
           only understand strength\") and Obama's failure to meet with the
           Dhali Lama.    The fundraiser stated he/she was personally
           disappointed (\"betrayed\") for helping Obama get into The White
           House and does not intend to support Obama next election, absent a
           drastic turn-around. 
            
            
","2009-11-06 23:08:21",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/391555_re-insight-china-tibet-obama-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,mongoven@stratfor.com",""
391771,"Bhopal update - 06-14-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   Hindustan Times reported on a group of disaster victims in India who
   \"still await justice\" - the families of those killed in the 1997 Uphaar
   cinema fire. The [Association of Victims of the Uphaar Tragegy] president
   Neelam Krishnamoorthy invoked the Bhopal gas tragedy regarding a 2009
   legislative proposal by the AVUT for \"legislation to prevent man-made
   tragedies in public places. For over two years, the matter has been
   pending with the Law Commission.\"

   http://www.hindustantimes.com/Uphaar-victims-still-await-justice/Article1-709079.aspx

   Rachna Dhingra emailed the ICJB distribution list with an item that has
   nothing to do with the Bhopal issue.

   She passed along a post from a left-wing US blog discussing a US Chamber
   of Commerce letter to Cass Sunstein, administrator of the Office of
   Information and Regulatory Affairs, \"telling him to block the regulation
   of extremely dangerous chemicals in consumer plastics,\" i.e. phthalates
   and BPA.

   Dow is mentioned at the end of the post, along with P&G, as having
   \"contributed millions to the Chamber's war chest in recent years.\"

   http://www.americablog.com/2011/06/us-chamber-of-commerce-fighting.html

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-06-14 17:18:45",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/391771_bhopal-update-06-14-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
391809,"Bhopal update - 08-09-11 Media #2
","   Scot, Tomm,

   UK media coverage of the Olympics stadium issue:

   -       The Daily Telegraph quoted \"Laurie Flynn, chairman of the trustees
   of the Bhopal Medical Appeal\" as being \"appalled\" at the Dow sponsorship,
   and called for the \"Olympic Movement\" to reconsider the stadium wrap deal.
   Flynn said there are \"court cases involving Dow outstanding in India and
   the United States, and that `many hundreds of people' had been
   contaminated in the years since the disaster.\"

   Dow's position on Bhopal is not given, but the London Olympic Committee
   statement about Dow, Bhopal and the sponsorship is.

   There was one brief comment about the Olympics being all about \"hard
   cash\"; the article has been shared about 35 times.

   http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/olympics/8689856/London-2012-Olympics-sponsor-criticised-over-links-to-firm-responsible-for-Bhopal-disaster-Union-Carbide.html

   -       A second Telegraph article reported on the current rioting in
   London taking place at the same time 200 Olympic delegates were arriving
   in the city. One version of this article tied Flynnn's comments about Dow
   and Bhopal at the end. Full text available on request.

   -       The Times reported \"Olympic curtain deal is 'dancing on graves of
   Bhopal' with much the same content as the BBC's article, although
   Sarangi's quotes are paraphrased. Sports Minister Hugh Robertson said
   since the IOC had signed the ten-year sponsorship with Dow, \"there was no
   reason we should not follow them.\" Dow's position on the Bhopal issue ends
   the piece. Full text available on request; online access appears to
   require paid subscription.

   India media:

   -       PTI reported the Indian Olympic Association (IOA) expressed
   \"concern\" over the Dow sponsorship and Bhopal issue. The group's acting
   president, VK Malhotra said the GoI \"should look into it.\" This piece was
   picked up multiple times in India media, with print appearances in The
   Mint (p9, in \"need to know\" briefs) and Daily Pioneer's New Delhi edition
   (p16, sports section, bottom).

   http://www.rediff.com/sports/report/ioa-shows-concern-at-london-games-link-with-dow-chemical/20110809.htm

   -       A post of the 8/8 PTI story on the wrap sponsorship received
   several reader comments, including \"Killed those DOW Chemical b'tards
   there itself.\"

     (Daily Pioneer's print edition paired the two PTI stories on p16 at the
     bottom)

   http://www.rediff.com/sports/slide-show/slide-show-1-bhopal-gas-disaster-wrap-over-london-olympics/20110808.htm

   -       Hindustan Times' sports sections include a commentary by writer B
   Shrikant, who pointed out Malhotra \"forgets that his organization receives
   money from [Dow] via IOC.\" Shirkant added \"IOC's deal with Dow Chemicals
   is already a year old and can't be terminated now because of Malhotra's
   \"grave concerns.\"

     This appeared in the Mumbai (p 18) and New Delhi (p 21) editions.

   http://www.hindustantimes.com/Malhotra-bites-the-hand-that-feeds-IOA/Article1-731022.aspx

   -       Asian Age's New Delhi print edition included a short item titled
   \"British Olympics organisers play down Dow issue.\" The three paragraph
   article consists of one saying the LOC \"tried to play down the
   controversy\" over Dow's sponsorship, the second relates briefly Dow's
   purchase of UCC, and the third lists the several corporate Olympic
   partners. Full text available on request. The positioning is p8 on the
   left side, just above the fold.

   -       IANS reported on the activist intent to hold \"a parallel Olympics
   in London,\" quoting BMA trustee Tim Edwards, who is currently in Bhopal.
   He added, \"Bhopal is not the only place where Dow or Union Carbide has
   killed thousands of people from their poisonous units. They did it in
   Costa Rica, Indonesia and Vietnam too. So all the people and the children
   who became disabled will participate in this special Olympics.\" This
   article also included comments from Sarangi, Abdul Jabbar and Farha
   Edwards (Tim's wife).

   http://www.deccanherald.com/content/182298/parallel-games-disabled-dow-sponsors.html

   -       IANS, Daily Pioneer and Daily News & Analysis also reported on the
   ICJB's support of Anna Hazare's anti-corruption campaign and their press
   release about the drugs supplied for gas victims. DNA's Indore print
   edition placed the report at the top center of p5.

   http://www.nagalandpost.com/ChannelNews/National/NationalNews.aspx?news=TkVXUzEwMDAwMzgwNA%3d%3d-ZT7iVDRvptM%3d

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-08-09 17:49:35",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/391809_bhopal-update-08-09-11-media-2-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
392233,"Fw: Wikileaks founder currently in the U.S.
","     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Shane Harris <shanewharris@gmail.com>
   Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2010 12:10:45 -0400
   To: Fred Burton<burton@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Wikileaks founder currently in the U.S.

   He's speaking on a panel today in Vegas.*
   http://data.nicar.org/conference/lasvegas10/showcase*

   --
   Shane Harris
   www.shaneharris.com
   202-489-4827 (mobile)
   202-862-3513 (office)
   Twitter: shanewharris
   Read THE WATCHERS: www.shaneharris.com/thewatchers
","2010-06-11 18:11:44",1,"2012-03-01 23:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/392233_fw-wikileaks-founder-currently-in-the-u-s-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","PosillicoM2@state.gov",""
392305,"Re: [CT] [Analytical & Intelligence Comments] RE: The Dismantlingof a Suspected Russian Intelligence Operation
","   I'll send him a response back.

   Clearly, either an old UK or Aussie cold warrior who understands the risk
   and knows the Great Game.

   Strobe and Gore (as VP) were agents of influence of the KGB.

   I shutter to think how many Obama appointees are reporting to the enemy.
   Fortunately, Biden is too dumb to be reporting to anyone.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 02 Jul 2010 07:28:08 -0500
   To: CT AOR<ct@stratfor.com>; EurAsia Team<eurasia@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [CT] [Analytical & Intelligence Comments] RE: The Dismantling
   of a Suspected Russian Intelligence Operation
   any thoughts?

   cj.ward@tastel.net.au wrote:

     Christopher John Ward (Dr) sent a message using the contact form at
     https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

     For the authors.

     Please accept my sincerest congratulations on a most comprehensive and
     comprehensible paper.  As a retired counterintelligence expert (sorry
     not to be able to tell you more by law), there are a few comments I
     would like to address perhaps in the form of a description or my
     world-view concerning Russian intelligence operations abroad.

     Firstly , it concerns me greatly that the mainstream press appears to
     have problems with the situation in Russia.  I served through the
     greater part of the Cold War and  became aware of the number of times it
     nearly became \" hot,\" in fact many more times than revealed in history
     books. In the early 1980s, there was no hint that the USSR would implode
     but I held the view then that even if communism was renounced as the
     doctrinal basis for Soviet actions, the West would still have to content
     with a fairly formidable power and certainly one that would continue
     with imperial pretensions first directed under the Czars especially a
     desire for warm water ports.

     The disastrous wipeout of the Soviet/Russian economy after the fall of
     the Berlin Wall and the events of 1991 in Moscow led to so-called
     assistance from the West, principally the US, to transform the command
     economy of Russia and introduce free-market principles. Under the
     auspices of the Clinton administration, a seemingly experienced team
     went to Moscow to assist the Russians. The true story of that adventure
     put me in mind of  post- Civil War US history, when the South was
     invaded by carpetbaggers. That scandal had two interesting players on
     the US side namely, Vice-President Al Gore and Strobe Talbott, about
     whom some of my FBI acquaintances had deep misgivings, more latterly
     solidified by Comrade J,  the SVR defector.  There was also a
     Congressional Enquiry which was not widely publicized: it can be found
     at http://www.fas.org/news/russia/2000/russia/

     The chaos of those years was bound to lead to authoritarian leadership.
     In a mirror image of what happened to the Weimar Republic in Germany
     (which produced Hitler), Russia could not continue under Boris Yeltsin
     and when it was announced that a somewhat obscure former KGB lieutenant
     colonel Vladimir Putin would replace him as president, I became as
     curious as any Russia watcher. Because I write under several different
     names, I don't expect to get any credit for the term - the
     \"Putinization\" of Russia which I described as a process of consolidation
     of power and a shakeout of vested interests. It was known for years that
     the Russia maffiya was under the control of the KGB and the corruption
     that went with the old Soviet nomenklatura was replaced by perks and new
     corruption for the siloviki, which became the basis of Putin's power. By
     my estimation, the consolidation of Russia under Putin, which I
     described as Putinism, was complete half way through his second term of
     president. In many respects, with freedom of religion and toleration of
     free enterprise up to a point, Russia differed from the Soviet Union.

     However, while many institutions of the communist regime were removed
     or  overhauled, the intelligence services were not affected to any great
     deal, despite a great deal of wishful thinking in the West and
     sleight-of-hand in Moscow: it was always business as usual. The GRU,
     which was always underestimated by Western services continued unchecked
     and unreformed and Putin increased their budget, built a new
     headquarters and announced the identity of George Koval to the press as
     one of the key GRU agents who had penetrated the US nuclear program. I
     read about the case of the so-called baseball spy with incredulity
     because his name is barely mentioned in any book concerning the spy
     rings focused on the US government and the Manhattan project. It was
     distinctly out of character for a former KGB officer to laud the GRU.

     The division of the KGB into the SVR and FSB doesn't require any comment
     from me because it was all pretty public and many of the same old names
     cropped up in  new positions. I was retired by then but old spy catchers
     rarely fade away: they become disenchanted and sometimes feel betrayed.

     I find it quite astonishing as well as alarming that for years, there
     have been reports both official and unofficial that the level of Russian
     espionage against the West exceeded Cold War levels. Indeed, Joseph
     Farah's G2 has a regular who is closely connected with UK intelligence
     and the message has been the same. From what I have been able to
     ascertain, the principal focus of legal rezidencies has been to collect
     scientific and technical information but influence operations and work
     among emigres apparently continues.

     I am not in a position to judge why the illegal ring was wound up at
     this time. Surely, when Pres. Obama was having a cheeseburger with
     Dmitry Medvedev recently, he knew that the FBI had closed the trap and I
     wondered idly why he didn't bother to ask the Russian President about
     the levels of espionage and perhaps give him a gentle warning. As
     anybody involved in counterintelligence is aware, illegal espionage
     rings are expensive, time-consuming and resource hungry and require a
     high degree of professionalism and patriotism. It is fairly obvious that
     the legal residency of the SVR was used to service special needs of the
     illegal network, using brush contacts and dead drops. Judging by the
     number of people rounded up, this was more than one illegal network and
     fairly obviously, the FBI, probably in conjunction with NSA managed to
     intercept messages and conduct high quality surveillance on suspects,
     including those from the Russian mission at the UN. It will be
     interesting to see whether the US Department of State  asks for the
     quiet removal of the official who  serviced in the ring in New York. In
     my view, officers from the Illegals Directorate are usually fairly
     difficult to identify and leaving them in place is a calculated risk.

     In summing up, I have to agree with everything you have written about
     the case but the fact remains that the US public, along with most of the
     Western world, has failed to see that the Russians still have grand
     objectives and that espionage is a key tool in gathering critical
     information and influencing opinion. The Russians intend to become a
     great power but they will not be able to match the US. On the other
     hand, they are making overtures to all their old allies from the days of
     the Soviet Union and adding a few new ones.

     I will not pretend to be a wiseacre about George W. Bush and the global
     war on terror. I watched it happen live on TV on that dreadful day, 9/11
     and my heart went out to former acquaintances in the US as well as
     friends. The much vaunted `peace dividend,' which saw drastic reductions
     in the size of security and intelligence organizations after the Cold
     War was deemed to be over and won,  produced a massive loss of
     experience and coverage, which can never be completely replaced. It is
     to the credit of the FBI that their counterintelligence staff rounded up
     10 out of the 11 suspects. There has been much talk about US
     intelligence organizations failing to \"join the dots\" about 9/11 and
     subsequent terrorist activity and I hope that it is possible to persuade
     some of those arrested to confess their crimes and for
     counterintelligence to carefully delineate everything they got right in
     this instance. The fringe dwellers of the press and media are doing
     their best to laugh at this particular case which reveals their total
     ignorance of firstly the Cold War and why the US and its allies
     confronted the UtSSR and secondly, the almost total triumph of the left
     in airbrushing history.   I am quite sure that it will be publicly
     demonstrated that this case had it all in the vernacular, brush
     contacts, dead drops, surveillance, plenty of film and  the material to
     illustrate that the SVR still uses the same training methods and
     tradecraft as the KGB. I continue to be astounded by the number of
     so-called experts who believe that this illegal network was somehow
     superfluous to requirements and their product could be gained through
     Google or by other means. Yet anyone with a background in intelligence
     knows full well why illegal networks are established and maintained.

     Lastly, US illegal networks in Russia have usually been compromised
     either by traitors at home or the thoroughness of the KGB.  I doubt that
     it is any easier today.

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2010-07-02 14:48:58",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/392305_re-ct-analytical-and-intelligence-comments-re-the.html","burton@stratfor.com","","ct@stratfor.com,eurasia@stratfor.com",""
392546,"Bhopal update - 07-25-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   There were several more pickups of the Bhopal NGOs' press statement from
   Saturday, including India Today, which laid out in fairly clear reporting
   the sequence of events between UCC and the GoI that the NGOs were trying
   to vilify.

   India Today bought into some of the activist point of view, describing the
   negotiated settlement as seeking \"exemption from any liability\"; the four
   types of injury classes as \"camouflaging\" potential long-term health
   effects from the gas leak; and as \"shocking\" that the settlement specified
   UCC was not subject to \"future claims...arising out of, or connected with,
   the Bhopal gas leak disaster against either or both of them, their
   affiliates, directors, officers and employees.\"

   The article also noted the settlement \"freed Carbide of any liability in
   India.\"

   Rachna Dhingra emailed the text of the India Today article to the
   \"remember Bhopal\" email distribution list.

   http://indiatoday.intoday.in/site/story/bhopal-gas-tragedy-union-carbide-india-deal/1/146044.html

   -       The Indian Muslims (TwoCircles.net, Ummid.com) post of the NGOs
   press statement was titled \"Documents reveal Union Carbide wanted to pay
   compensation to victims.\"

   -       The Daily News & Analysis appears to be the only print paper that
   published items on the NGOs' press conference, with articles on the front
   page (below the fold) on p5 at the top, of the Indore edition. The
   Saturday edition had a p5 version of the PTI article in which Rachna
   Dhingra claimed there was 27,000 more tonnes of chemical waste at the
   former UCIL factory site's solar ponds. Full texts available on request.

   Law et al News reported on the Maharashtra government's application for
   intervention in the MP High Court case on transportation and disposal of
   the Bhopal factory waste. This version also refers to the material as
   \"radioactive.\" The article does provide the filing's two main points:

   -       A No Objection Certificate for the waste transport was not
   obtained, and

   -       Madhya Pradesh has an incinerator

   The rest of the article appears to be identical to that reported yesterday
   from the Daily Pioneer.

   This article was posted on the BMA website.

   http://www.lawetalnews.com/NewsDetail.asp?newsid=4395

   Times of India reported the DRDO and its parent the Defence Research
   Development Establishment (DRDE) told the ToI the waste material is not
   hazardous, is \"nowhere as dangerous as the gas that caused the Bhopal
   tragedy, and is not likely to cause any damage due to any accident.\" The
   article related the DRDO process at the incinerator,which \"should not be
   confused with the Bhopal gas leak.\" The DRDO applied for approval for the
   incineration from the Ministry of Environment and Forests, which it said
   \"may be enough\" and is \"expected at any time.\" The DRDO reiterated the
   state of Madhya Pradesh is responsible for transporting the material.

   The article did note: \"At the same time, some experts, including
   government officials, were of the opinion that the waste should be cleaned
   up by Dow Chemicals of the USA. This would be an example of 'polluter
   pays' principle, they said.\"

   http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/nagpur/Bhopal-waste-not-hazardous-says-DRDO/articleshow/9349720.cms

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-07-25 18:11:52",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/392546_bhopal-update-07-25-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
392580,"Bhopal update - 07-11-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   Business Standard reported over the weekend the chemical waste from the
   former UCIL factory is to be disposed of at a Defense Research and
   Development (DRDO) facility at Nagpur. According to the article, approval
   has already been granted by the MP Pollution Control Board and DRDO is
   said to be ready to do the work \"any time.\"

   The article ended with a quote from Rachna Dhingra, who said Environment
   Minister Jairam Ramesh assured the NGOs they would \"be informed whenever
   there is movement of waste.\"

   The piece was also in the 7/9 print edition on p4 in the top right-hand
   corner.

   http://business-standard.com/india/news/union-carbide-toxic-waste-to-be-disposedat-drdo-nagpur/442112/

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-07-11 16:24:04",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/392580_bhopal-update-07-11-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
392726,"Bhopal update 09-19-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   IANS reported the Bhopal NGOs are putting together a \"traveling Bhopal gas
   tragedy museum\" in the form of a bus that is intended to tour the country
   for eleven months through most of 2012, then return to Bhopal to be a
   permanent exhibit. The project is planned to be ready to open by April
   2012, be on display in Bhopal for one month, then set out on tour.

   A new fund, the Remember Bhopal Trust, has been set up for the museum, and
   museologist Rama Lakshmi has been engaged by the gas survivors to curate
   the exhibit. Lakshmi told IANS museums \"telling the stories of social
   movements\" are found across the globe as \"safe sites for unsafe ideas\"
   such as the Holocaust or Apartheid.

   Satinath Sarangi said the bus museum is being developed because the
   gas-affected have not been consulted over any government-led gas accident
   memorial plans, and \"the government has no moral right to memorialise
   because it is complicit in the injustice meted out to the community.\"

   The piece has been picked up about a dozen times across Indian media.

   http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/bhopal-gas-tragedy-feeds-a-people-s-museum_732338.html

   Sarangi appeared on NewsX live panel program \"Waking the Green Giant\" with
   CSE Deputy Director General Chandra Bhushan and Greenpeace India
   campaigner Divya Raghunathan (also spelled Raghunandan). The 26-minute
   program covered a lot of ground, moving from water and air pollution to
   food contamination, and also the Bhopal gas tragedy (at 19:51 in the
   program). Sarangi highlighted \"The Other Disaster\" of pre-gas leak UCIL's
   waste disposal, which he said was designed by UCC and resulted in the
   broader environmental contamination and \"horrific birth defects\" in the
   current population.

   The moderator asked about the DRDO incineration proposal, with Sarangi
   responding the DRDO has been incinerating chemical weapons without the
   knowledge of the Maharashtra Pollution Control Board. Raghunanthan
   recalled the 2002 campaign of \"1,000 Bhopals\" to raise awareness of other
   industrial pollution sites in the country.

   In an interesting point near the end of the program was Bhushan defending
   Jairam Ramesh's decisions during his tenure as Environment and Forests
   Minister.

   The program is available to view on YouTube, although there have only been
   about 30 viewings. The program was uploaded on Sept. 17; it was unclear
   when it was broadcast.

   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adU8uP8rUW0

   Daily News & Analysis reported the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI)
   reported the Bhopal gas victims were subjected to unethical drug trials at
   the Bhopal Memorial Hospital and Research Center. An inspection team also
   found other regulatory violations at the hospital during a visit in August
   2010. There is no indication of any ramifications of the DCGI's report.
   The MP government's report on the drug trials is still pending.

   The article appeared on the front page of DNA's Indore edition today.

   http://daily.bhaskar.com/article/MP-BHO-unethical-drug-trials-on-gas-victims-dgci-fumes-2441457.html

   Youth Kiwaaz, an Indian youth politics and law forum, published an
   analysis titled \"The Role Economic Forces Played In Influencing Legal
   Developments After Bhopal Gas Leak.\" The conclusion is \"The failure of the
   Indian government to hold the UCC liable and pierce the corporate veil
   goes to show that UOI was ready to industrialize the nation even at the
   cost of the Bhopal victims.\"

   http://www.youthkiawaaz.com/2011/09/the-role-economic-forces-played-in-influencing-legal-developments-after-bhopal-gas-leak/

   Economic Times published a lengthy report on the \"Life and Death of Shehla
   Masood,\" the Right To Information activist from who was shot and killed
   outside her Bhopal home several weeks ago. The writer observed the Bhopal
   gas activist community \"has never really warmed up to Shehla's cause,\"
   which Rachna Dingra commented may have been because \"she wasn't so known
   in activist circles.\" She noted RTI activists tend to be more \"involved
   with government.\"

   http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/The-life-and-death-of-Shehla-Masood/848087/

   Also of interest, the Sundance Film Festival is going to spend one day of
   its 2012 festival screening films in nine cities around the country,
   including Ann Arbor.

   http://realscreen.com/2011/09/16/sundance-film-festival-traveling-to-nine-american-cities/

   The only activist information to report at this time, is the ICJB Boston
   (Boston 4 Bhopal) group has a meeting this evening in Cambridge, possibly
   to prepare for protesting Friday's Dow recruiting session at Tufts.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-09-19 18:33:57",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/392726_bhopal-update-09-19-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
393353,"Bhopal update - 10-10-11 bandh protest Oct 11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   Five organizations representing Bhopal gas victims have called for a
   Bhopal Bandh (a large strike) to be held on Tuesday, October 11. The
   protest is to demand the Centre and state government \"present actual
   figures of health damages...in the curative petition that would be heard
   in the Supreme Court soon.\" According to Satinath Sarangi and Rachna
   Dhingra, \"Union Carbide, Dow Chemical and both the governments have
   presented thoroughly unscientific data on the deaths and health damage
   caused by the disaster,\" and they alleged that internal Union Carbide
   documents \"showed that 93 percent of the survivors have been wrongfully
   categorized as temporarily injured\" and given the wrong compensation. The
   groups stated they have \"received support from all workers, traders and
   mass organizations for the proposed bandh.\" The Pioneer and IBNS reported
   the groups will also \"be taking out an awareness rally from Peer Gate on
   Monday at 3pm.\"

   -IANS

   http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=462718&version=1&template_id=40&parent_id=22

   -UNI

   http://news.webindia123.com/news/articles/India/20111008/1847348.html

   -The Pioneer

   http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/12106-bhopal-bandh-on-tuesday-to-support-gas-victims.html

   -IBNS

   http://www.newkerala.com/news/2011/worldnews-83369.html

   http://www.newkerala.com/news/2011/worldnews-83885.html

    

    

   Marissa Martin

   Business Intelligence Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

    

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.

    
","2011-10-10 16:55:28",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/393353_bhopal-update-10-10-11-bandh-protest-oct-11-.html","mmartin@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
393478,"Yes Men monitoring 10-14-11
","   Yes Man Andy Bichlbaum has traveled to Los Angeles for the \"Occupy\" action
   there. A short YouTube video shows him explaining he had \"spent lots of
   time\" at the Occupy New York protest and the LA version is \"lovely, keep
   it up.\"

   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukyZlhnppH4

   The Yes Men tweeted once this week, encouraging readers to join the Occupy
   New York gathering.

   Regards,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-10-14 22:11:26",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/393478_yes-men-monitoring-10-14-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","mkolleth@dow.com,sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
393640,"DOW CONFIDENTIAL -- Bhopal monitoring 09-09-11
","","2011-09-10 00:05:12",1,"2012-02-27 20:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/393640_dow-confidential-bhopal-monitoring-09-09-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com,JDavis5@dow.com,rchitkara@dow.com","attach/34/34506_Activist info 09-08-11 BMA - factsheet.pdf
attach/34/34511_Activist info 09-08-11 Wikileaks - Dow.pdf
attach/34/34720_Blog 09-05-11 Games Monitor.pdf
attach/34/34721_Activist info 09-05-11 BMA%20Briefing.pdf
attach/34/34722_Activist info 09-05-11 Bhopali - ICJB conference.pdf
attach/34/34736_Activist email 09-07-11 YM fundraising.pdf
attach/34/34737_Social media 09-07-11 ICJB US conference - Facebook.pdf
attach/34/34738_Social media 09-03 to 09-09-11 anti-Dow Olympic FB page.pdf
attach/34/34739_Social media 09-07-11 ICJB US conference attendees - Facebook.pdf
attach/34/34740_Activist info 09-09-11 YM kickstarter page.pdf
attach/34/34741_Activist info 09-08-11 GP Intl blog.pdf"
393642,"Bhopal update - 09-06-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   The media so far today is all tangential to the core Bhopal issues.

   -       Three are pieces on the need for a National Health Bill in India,
   mostly based on a speech by N.R. Madhava Menon, who \"referred to the 
   Bhopal Gas Tragedy\" as illustrating \"inadequate\" government resources and
   programs to address health and justice needs. The appearances were via
   IANS, PTI, and India Pharma News.

   IANS: 
   http://in.news.yahoo.com/early-enactment-national-health-bill-needed-175817027.html

   -       Four are on literary references to the Bhopal Gas Tragedy: the
   Siddhartha Deb book \"The Beautiful and the Damned\" that includes a section
   on gas activist Abdul Jabbar, (Business Standard, India Today and The
   Brooklyn Rail); a fiction piece by Shashi Warrior, \"So Betrayed\" relates a
   gas survivor's account of the how the tragedy affected his family's lives;
   (Business Standard); and a Frontline review of two books on corruption in
   India included a photo of the Bhopal gas activists submitting RTI
   applications in New Delhi.

   http://www.flonnet.com/stories/20110923281907500.htm

   -       Mail Today cited the Bhopal gas tragedy in workplace rulings  by
   the Indian Supreme Court in an article on judicial activism in Pakistan.

   From activist resources:

   -       The Chingari Trust blog posted a photo and note from Slumdog
   Millionaire actor Dev Patel resulting from a recent visit he made to the
   Chingari facility. He complimented Champa Devi Shukla and Rashida Bee as
   \"extraordinary individuals.\"

   -       UK activist Ian Jarvis posted a new item to his blog reporting on
   his stay at the Sambhavna Clinic. This post was solely about the workings
   of the clinic's environmentally friendly clothes washer.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-09-06 17:25:05",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/393642_bhopal-update-09-06-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
393926,"Bhopal update - 09-16-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   The BMA website has a new issue of the \"777\" BMA newsletter, credited as
   the Summer 2011 issue. The issue features the Chingari Trust, the water
   supply situation in Bhopal, the Bhopali film, and the Glastonbury
   Festival. There are only a few items that are truly interesting.

   -       Peter Finnigan wrote an introductory column to the issue and said
   the \"long legal and political struggle\" has brought \"further
   frustrations,\" noting the Supreme Court dismissed the criminal case
   curative petition. He explained briefly the remaining curative petition
   issues on compensation amounts and eligibility, and said the remediation
   issue is at a \"legal stalemate.\"

     Finnigan also noted the BMA hopes the Bhopali documentary \"will be
     widely available in the near future.\"

   -       The Chingari Trust article is unremarkable, but is accompanied by
   photos from \"Alex Masi/Focus For Humanity.\"

   -       Colin Toogood wrote a brief article on the issue of supplying
   water to Bhopal's gas-affected neighborhoods as \"the ongoing crisis.\" He
   reported the pipeline system project \"was rudimentary and laid along the
   ground, making it easily ruptured.\" Most residents still rely on the water
   tankers arriving, although the frequency of delivery varies from 2-3 days
   to more than a week, which leaves the residents to rely on the water pumps
   that are alleged to be contaminated.

   -       A report on the Bhopali film has description from film maker Max
   Carlson about his and Kirk Palayan's visits to Bhopal and the events and
   information used to create the film. The piece ends with \"Release details
   for `Bhopali' are still being finalized.\"

   -       The Glastonbury Festival report by Roz Shearn claims the event was
   highly successful, as \"literally thousands of people came to visit\" the
   BMA's installation of tent and \"sculpture garden.\" Shearn explained the
   BMA litterpicker fundraising was intended to \"make a link between cleaning
   up Glastonbury and cleaning up Bhopal.\" A list of the individuals involved
   in the effort is included.

     Due to the size of the file (nearly 4MB), the issue is available on
     request, either in its entirety, or as the individual articles.

   The BMA Twitter and Facebook accounts have just one new item - a CSRWire
   press release about a Merck water, sanitation and hygiene initiative in
   India. The BMA comment is: \"This is a decent initiative. But, wouldn't it
   be great to see another well-known US Corporation clean all of the heavy
   metals, volatile organic compounds and solvents out of the ground water in
   Bhopal?\"

   The only media to report today is a Down To Earth article asking why the
   Bhopal dharnas in New Delhi did not receive the same resources and
   considerations as the Anna Hazare RTI protest.

   http://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/idea-corruption

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-09-16 20:45:45",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/393926_bhopal-update-09-16-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
393929,"Climate Change Daily Feed - 15 September 2011 - Climate Change Policy & Practice
","                Having trouble viewing this email? Please try our Browser Version.                 
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ 
|  IISD                                                                                          | 
|Reporting                                                                                       | 
|Services              Climate Change Daily Feed - Climate Change Policy & Practice              | 
|- Climate A daily compilation of items recently posted to the Climate Change Policy & Practice  | 
| Change               knowledgebase of international activities on climate change               | 
|Policy &                                                                                        | 
|Practice                                                                                        | 
|                                Latest News - 15 September 2011                                 | 
| GEF Promotes Climate Change Dialogue with       63rd CDM Executive Board Meeting Agenda Open   | 
| African Youth                                   for Comments                                   | 
|     Read More: GEF Promotes Climate Change       Read More: 63rd CDM Executive Board Meeting   | 
|          Dialogue with African Youth                       Agenda Open for Comments            | 
|                                                                                                | 
| 14_September 2011: The Global Environment       12_September 2011: The Executive Board of the  | 
| Facility (GEF), through the                     Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) has invited  | 
| initiative Connect4Climate has initiated an     input from the public on the annotated agenda  | 
| interactive dialogue on climate change issues   for its 63rd meeting, which is scheduled to    | 
| amongst African youth and social media users    take place from 25-29 September 2011, in       | 
| around the world. continued...                  Quito, Ecuador. continued...                   | 
|                                                                                                | 
| UNDP Launches Guidebook on Designing National   FAO Launches Global Soil Partnership for Food  | 
| Climate Financing Mechanisms                    Security and Climate Change Adaptation and     | 
|     Read More: UNDP Launches Guidebook on       Mitigation                                     | 
|      Designing National Climate Financing            Read More: FAO Launches Global Soil       | 
|                   Mechanisms                      Partnership for Food Security and Climate    | 
|                                                        Change Adaptation and Mitigation        | 
| 14_September 2011: The UN Development                                                          | 
| Programme (UNDP) has launched report that       9_September 2011: The Food and Agriculture     | 
| provides a step-by-step guide to developing     Organization of the UN (FAO) is calling for a  | 
| countries in setting up national climate funds  renewed international effort to promote and    | 
| and in making informed decisions on climate     assure healthy and fertile soils as a          | 
| financing options. The guidebook, \"Blending     component of the new Global Soil Partnership   | 
| Climate Finance through National Climate        for Food Security and Climate Change           | 
| Funds: A Guidebook for the Design and           Adaptation and Mitigation. continued...        | 
| Establishment of National Funds to Achieve                                                     | 
| Climate Change Priorities,\" is based on UNDP's                                                 | 
| experience with 750 funds comprising over US$5                                                 | 
| billion in resources from various donors.                                                      | 
| continued...                                                                                   | 
|                                                                                                | 
|             Climate Change Policy & Practice Calendar: Current & Upcoming Events               | 
|  Centralized Annual Reviews 2011                    Bonn, Germany            29 Aug - 24 Sep   | 
|  28th Session on the European Forestry                                                         | 
|  Commission Working Party on the                        Turkey               12 Sep - 16 Sep   | 
|  Management of Mountain Watersheds                                                             | 
|  Fourth Special Session of the African                                                         | 
|  Ministerial Conference on the                       Bamako, Mali            12 Sep - 16 Sep   | 
|  Environment (AMCEN)                                                                           | 
|  Asia Regional Meeting Preparatory to              Bali, Indonesia           14 Sep - 16 Sep   | 
|  UNCCD COP 10                                                                                  | 
|  Researchers' Workshop and Conference on                                                       | 
|  Climate Change and Migration in Asia and        Manila, Philippines         14 Sep - 16 Sep   | 
|  the Pacific                                                                                   | 
|  The Ocean Carbon Cycle at a Time of                Paris, France            14 Sep - 16 Sep   | 
|  Change: Synthesis and Vulnerabilities                                                         | 
|  CLEAN-Linking Open Data Webinar                       virtual                   15 Sep        | 
|  15th Meeting of the Adaptation Fund                Bonn, Germany            15 Sep - 16 Sep   | 
|  Board                                                                                         | 
|  26th Meeting of the Joint Implementation           Bonn, Germany            15 Sep - 16 Sep   | 
|  Supervisory Committee                                                                         | 
|  Pre-UNFCCC COP 17 African Energy             Johannesburg, South Africa     15 Sep - 16 Sep   | 
|  Ministers Conference                                                                          | 
|  International Symposium on Costs and                                                          | 
|  Benefits of REDD Plus: What, Who, How          Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia       19 Sep - 20 Sep   | 
|  and When?                                                                                     | 
|  Quantifying and managing land use                 Campinas, Brazil          19 Sep - 21 Sep   | 
|  impacts of bioenergy                                                                          | 
|  63rd Meeting of the CDM Executive Board            Bonn, Germany            19 Sep - 23 Sep   | 
|  AU Regional Geothermal Working Group              Kampala, Uganda           19 Sep - 23 Sep   | 
|  Meeting                                                                                       | 
|  FANRPAN Annual High Level Regional Food              Swaziland              19 Sep - 23 Sep   | 
|  Security Policy Dialogue                                                                      | 
|  UN Private Sector Forum: Access to       New York, United States of America     20 Sep        | 
|  Energy For All                                                                                | 
|  UNGA High-Level Event on Desertification New York, United States of America     20 Sep        | 
|  CBD Africa Regional Consultation and                                                          | 
|  Capacity Building Workshop on REDD+,          Cape Town, South Africa       20 Sep - 23 Sep   | 
|  Including on Relevant Biodiversity                                                            | 
|  Safeguards                                                                                    | 
|  UNFCCC Workshop on Promoting Risk                                                             | 
|  Management Approaches on the Specific                                                         | 
|  Needs and Concerns of Developing Country           Bonn, Germany                21 Sep        | 
|  Parties Arising from the Impact of the                                                        | 
|  Implementation of Response Measures                                                           | 
|  Experts Meeting on Climate Change                                                             | 
|  Education for Sustainable Development             Nassau, Bahamas           21 Sep - 23 Sep   | 
|  and Adaptation in SIDS                                                                        | 
|  Seventh \"Environment for Europe\"                 Astana, Kazakhstan         21 Sep - 23 Sep   | 
|  Ministerial Conference                                                                        | 
|                                                                                                | 
|    Subscribe to our iCalendar and your computer will gain access to all the events listed in   | 
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","2011-09-15 20:01:58",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/393929_climate-change-daily-feed-15-september-2011-climate-change.html","iisd-rs@iisd.org","","mongoven@stratfor.com",""
394197,"Bhopal update - 06/01/11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   The BMA website has been updated with the three most recent Dow-related
   media items:

   -       The Express Buzz commentary from 5/30 on the Anderson extradition
   issue

   -       The PTI article reporting on the CIC's recommendation the Ministry
   of External Affairs release RTI-requested documents about Anderson

   -       The Economic Times article reporting the Ag Ministry sent notices
   to DAS India asking why it should not delist DAS product registrations.

   Colin Toogood posted on Twitter and Facebook links to the Express Buzz
   commentary with the note \"A tale of two legal battles.\"

   Print media today Asian Age, Indian Express (New Delhi editions) and Daily
   News & Analysis (Mumbai edition) included reports on the CIC
   recommendation to release the GoI communications regarding Anderson. All
   were below the fold on interior pages.

   TwoCircles.net published an enhanced version of the CIC story, saying the
   recommendation was to \"make public all letters that [the MEA] has issued
   or received concerning Bhopal gas leak of December 1984.\"

   This story reported the RTI application by Afroz Alam \"Sahil\" \"includes
   all correspondence between the ministry and Central Bureau of
   Investigation (CBI) from April 1984 to July 1995; photocopies of all
   letters written by the ministry to any department; letters received by the
   ministry from the Central Government and the Madhya Pradesh Government
   concerning Bhopal gas leak; and details of all expenditure incurred by the
   ministry.\"

   The CI Commissioner cited the documents should be released as they are \"of
   significance to the general public, especially the families of the victims
   who have been awaiting justice since over last two decades.\"

   http://twocircles.net/2011jun01/cic_orders_foreign_ministry_reveal_bhopal_letters.html

   Economic Times published an error-riddled report that \"a special court\"
   for India's Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) \"framed\" charges against
   two government officials who allegedly received payments to register
   pesticide products for De-Nocil. This article by Rajender Nagaroki said
   the payments were made by DAS India Ltd. Mumbai, \"a subsidiary of Dow
   Chemicals,\" rather than by DE-Nocil.

   It also refered to \"the Dow scam\" as being \"unearthed by the U.S.
   Securities and Exchange Commission\" in 2007, which \"fined Dow Chemicals
   $325,000 for bribing the officials in India.\"

   The piece ended with a reference to Dow's 2001 merger with UCC, \"which was
   lying closed after the 1984 Bhopal gas tragedy.\"

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/environment/pollution/cbi-files-chargesheet-in-dow-pesticide-case/articleshow/8671900.cms

   Indian media reported the Delhi Police removed a ban it had imposed on
   protests at \"key\" areas in the city such as Jantar Mantar and India Gate.
   The action was the result of a lawsuit filed by Bhopal gas victim Bano Bi
   from the 2010 ICJB protest at Jantar Mantar when the activists were not
   allowed to camp at the protest site, but had to repair to another location
   each evening. Future applications for protest permits to use the sites
   will be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

   The Hindu, Hindustan Times and Indian Express each published in-house
   reports.

   Hindu  http://www.hindu.com/2011/06/01/stories/2011060161570400.htm

   HT 
   http://www.hindustantimes.com/After-HC-order-prepare-for-rallies-at-India-Gate/Article1-704240.aspx

   HT 
   http://www.hindustantimes.com/Be-ready-for-major-traffic-jams-at-India-Gate/Article1-704235.aspx

   IE 
   http://www.indianexpress.com/news/ban-on-protests-at-jantar-mantar-india-gate-lifted/797877/0

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-06-01 19:43:06",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/394197_bhopal-update-06-01-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
394241,"Yes Men monitoring - 07-22-11 - updated
","   The Sacramento Bee on 7/17 reported on activists that employ hoaxes,
   including Yes Men's Bhopal/BBC hoax and the Yes Men partnering with
   Rainforest Action Network to hijack Chevron's \"Yes, We Can\" ad campaign. A
   communications firm representative stated corporations like Dow \"make
   things worse for themselves when they step in\" to respond to the Yes Men's
   actions, such as when Dow \"loudly distanced itself from a humane gesture
   like compensating the victims of the tragic accident at Bhopal, still
   suffering 20 years later. Bichlbaum was quoted at length and answered
   questions on some other Yes Men actions, including the SurvivaBall. Sierra
   Club chairman Carl Pope spoke highly of the Yes Men, because companies
   \"must rebut\" when they are the victim of Yes Men actions.

   http://www.sacbee.com/2011/07/17/3773241/these-giant-organizations-were.html

   The Yes Men have been quiet again this week, there are no updates to
   report from their websites or social media.

   -       A few other Twitter users are seeing physical similarities between
   Andy Bichlbaum and James Murdoch, and are calling for Bichlbaum to be cast
   as Murdoch in a movie version of the News of the World/News Corp scandal.

   -       AlterNet posted the Yes! magazine article from last week in which
   Bichlbaum and Bonanno chose four other \"protests that shook the world
   (with laughter)\" and the publication editors added the BBC/Bhopal hoax for
   a total of five pranks.

   Regards,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-07-22 23:39:22",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/394241_yes-men-monitoring-07-22-11-updated-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","mkolleth@dow.com,sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
394301,"Bhopal update - 11-14-11 Media #1
","   Scot, Tomm

   Here are the initial wire reports on the ICJB's press conference:

   -       AP reported \"at least 21\" Indian Olympians called for LOCOG to
   drop Dow's sponsorship, calling it \"offensive to the spirit of the Olympic
   Games.\" The only person quoted by AP is Safreen Khan of Children Against
   Dow-Carbide, who said \"hundreds of children are being born disabled\" and
   blamed Dow for the lack of remediation in Bhopal. LOCOG is noted as
   standing firm on the Dow sponsorship, and Dow's position on the Bhopal
   issue is given. The article noted Dow's India office referred inquiries to
   the US headquarters.

   http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/45284750

   -       IBNS issued what is likely the closest iteration of the ICJB press
   release, as usual. Three Olympians appeared at the press conference in
   Bhopal: \"Inam - Ur - Rehman, B P Govinda, Syed Ali and Jalaluddin Rizvi,\"
   and said, \"national and international Olympians should oppose the unholy
   alliance with the poisoner of Bhopal. \"

     Representatives of the five Bhopal activist groups & NGOs are quoted -
     Safreen Khan, Dhingra, Rashida Bee, Balkrishna Namdeo and Nawab Khan.
     Bee said neither PM Singh's office nor the Indian Olympic Association
     have responded or acted on the ICJB's request that they contact LOCOG
     and demand Dow's sponsorship be dropped.

   http://www.newkerala.com/news/2011/worldnews-106332.html

   -       PTI published a brief report from Chennai that Hockey Olympians
   Vasudevan Baskaran and Charles Cornelius held a press conference in
   conjunction with the ICJB's press event in Bhopal.

   http://www.newkerala.com/news/2011/worldnews-106332.html

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-11-14 15:28:50",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/394301_bhopal-update-11-14-11-media-1-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
394732,"Bhopal update - 08-11-11 media #1
","   Scot, Tomm,

   Maharashtra media the Hitavada published on its front two pages an article
   previewing the Jabalpur High Court hearing scheduled for today on the
   question of whether the Bhopal factory chemical waste can and will be sent
   to the DRDO incinerator near Nagpur. The article related the legal filings
   and rulings leading up to today's hearing. It also reported the MP state
   documents about the site have been supplied to the Maharashtra Pollution
   Control Board, and the MPCB `is likely seek more time\" for the report it
   was due to provide the court today. The \"state\" (presumably Maha) \"has set
   up an expert committee of high level officials to study the [MP] reports.\"
   However, the MPCB's analysis of samples it was directed to collect from
   the factory site \"could not be done\" to meet today's deadline \"due to
   Monsoon session [sic] and oil spill near Mumbai.\"

   The hearing today is scheduled to include \"NGOs and others who are seeking
   intervention in the matter and recall of order.\" Full text available on
   request.

   IBNS reported the ICJB sent its letter to PM Singh about Dow's Olympic
   sponsorship, as previously mentioned, and to the president of the Indian
   Olympic Associaiton. The NGO group also said petitions would be circulated
   among athletes and the British public for signatures and \"to register
   their protest on Dow's sponsorship.\" The report quoted Rachna Dhingra on
   behalf of the BGIA, who alleged Dow's action in addressing UCC issues in
   the US but not in India is \"racist.\"

   The Bhopal activists said \"The Organising Committees of Olympics hugely
   underestimate the negative fallout\" that can occur from Dow's sponsorship.

   http://www.indiablooms.com/NewsDetailsPage/newsDetails110811c.php

   The AroundtheRings Olympics blog reported \"Dow rejects criticisms\" of its
   Olympic sponsorship. In addition to Dow's position statement, the article
   included the BMA's blog comments by Lorraine Close and those from Indian
   Olympic Association president V.K. Malhotra calling for Dow's sponsorship
   to be cancelled.

   http://www.aroundtherings.com/articles/view.aspx?id=37640

   Daily News & Analysis reported the MP govt \"on Tuesday set up an inquiry
   commission to examine the various aspects of the [Bhopal gas] accident.\"
   The panel is to consider the \"role of the state administration and others
   in the arrest, release and providing safe passage to Warren Anderson (UCC
   chief), leading to his ascension (sic)\" and \"basic issues such whether the
   UCC plant was set up in compliance of strict regulations, and whether it
   was equipped with adequate safety measures and whether it took safety
   measures in disposal of the hazardous waste.\" Some observers are skeptical
   of the move, calling it politically expedient, while others considered it
   \"better late than never.\"

   http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_27-years-later-mp-sets-up-panel-to-probe-bhopal-gas-leak_1574710

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-08-11 16:42:01",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/394732_bhopal-update-08-11-11-media-1-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
395232,"Bhopal update - 11-08-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   The Independent published a clarification statement on Dow regarding the
   11/3 \"Bhopal poisoner\" headline and the 2001 acquisition of UCC. The note,
   not currently available online, included: \"There should be therefore no
   suggestion that Dow were in any way responsible for the 1984 Bhopal
   disaster\" and the detail that UCIL \"had responsibility for the day to day
   operation of the plant,\" not UCC. Full text available on request.

   Huffington Post UK reported on McDonald's providing training for \"key
   staff\" of the London Olympics. Near the end, the article included a list
   of the Games' main sponsors, with three sentences explaining the criticism
   aimed at Dow over the Bhopal issue. Amnesty's call for LOCOG to \"reassess
   their association\" with Dow is also mentioned.

   http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/11/08/london-2012-mcdonalds-train-staff_n_1081340.html?ref=uk

   A Current TV post on Len Aldis' Agent Orange Activist Group on the topic
   of \"Bring down Monsanto\" has a lengthy comment by \"JanforGore\" about \"DOW,
   Dupont and those companies which provided the chemical weapons of war and
   other toxic products that still affect subsequent generations of humans
   from Vietnam, to Bhopal, to the U.S.\" The comment included a paragraph
   about former Mich. Gov. Jennifer Granholm and her brief tenure on the Dow
   board.

   AOAG page:  http://current.com/1jb6ikc

   Comment page: 
   http://current.com/community/93530679_bring-down-monsanto.htm

   PTI reported on anti-nuclear activist demands for information on the
   proposed Koodankulam Nuclear Power plant. The protesters said they \"should
   not be left in the lurch like the Bhopal gas victims.\"

   http://www.rediff.com/news/report/anti-nuke-leaders-demand-status-paper-on-koodankulam-plant/20111108.htm

   Signatures:

   -       The UK Early Day Motion has one new signer: Greg Mulholland from
   Leeds North West, of the Liberal Democrats party.

   -       The Change.org petition to Lord Coe currently has 868 signatures.

   The BMA Twitter and Facebook pages posted links to email directly to UK
   govt officials and ask them to sign the EDM. Other new links include:

   -       A post on IOC website TeamUSA.org of the 11/3 AP article on the UK
   MPs questioning Dow's Olympic sponsorship credentials

   -       The 11/4 Siaset article on the CIC directing BMHRC to comply with
   Rachna Dhingra's RTI requests.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-11-08 18:38:50",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/395232_bhopal-update-11-08-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
395271,"Bhopal update - 11-10-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   The BMA Facebook and Twitter feeds posted links to Agent Orange activist
   Len Aldis' website \"Britain-Vietnam Friendship Society,\" and the Midland
   Daily News article on Dow funding remediation of the Tittabawassee River
   near its Midland plant.

   -       The BVFS link was introduced by BMA as \"More Dow (and Monsanto)
   fun and games with Agent Orange.\" The BVFS site links to an online
   petition addressed to Pres. Obama calling for reversal of the 2009 U.S.
   Supreme Court decision against Vietnamese people seeking compensation from
   Dow and Monsanto. The BMA's Colin Toogood appears to be the most recent
   person to sign the petition.

   -       BMA's comment on the MDN story is \"Dow to clean up! er, in the 
   US...\"

   The BMA's Change.org petition to Lord Coe has about 925 signatures this
   morning. Petition originator Lorraine Close had urged supporters to reach
   1,000 signatures yesterday.

   Media

   -       Discovery Channel's green website Treehugger.com reported on
   Coca-Cola's initiative to recycle all of the clear PET bottles at the
   London Olympics, then questioned the validity of the Games \"green\" claims,
   based on Dow's sponsorship of the Olympic stadium wrap. At that point,
   Treehugger's Business/Corporate Responsibility reporter Rachel Cernansky
   inserted quotes from the 11/3 Independent and AP articles on the MP's
   questioning Lord Coe on the Dow sponsorship decision.

     The article has not received any comments, but has been tweeted 55
     times.

   http://www.treehugger.com/corporate-responsibility/coca-cola-launch-major-recycling-iniative-london-olympics.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+treehuggersite+%28Treehugger%29

   -       Pacific Free Press, a Left media source based in British Columbia,
   posted a lengthy and particularly vitriolic article by a retired British
   \"counsellor\" named Terrence Stone. He includes the Bhopal gas accident
   among several topics covered in the piece. On the Bhopal topic, he claims
   \"all those deaths were murders\"; \"The management of Union Carbide back in
   the USA gloated over the money they'd saved by cutbacks in safety,
   ignoring repeated warnings of imminent catastrophe\"; and \"Dow Chemical
   eventually ended up buying the still unsafe plant and is one of the major
   producers of pesticides in India today, along with Monsanto.\"

     Stone and his wife had traveled to South Asia last year and crossed
     paths with \"an American couple who belong to The Friends of Bhopal,\" who
     gave him Dominque LaPierre's book It Was Five Past Midnight in Bhopal.
     The other topics in the article are Agent Orange and Napalm use during
     the Vietnam war (specifically in Cambodia), and former Secretary of
     State Henry Kissinger's \"Operation Breakfast\" campaign of bombing in
     Cambodia.

   http://www.pacificfreepress.com/news/1-/10140-same-as-it-ever-was-murder-inc-sequels.html

   -       A US EPA press release about a Missouri pharmaceutical company
   paying a fine for environmental violations ends with a description of the
   US Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act (EPCRA) being
   enacted in the wake of the Bhopal gas accident and \"a later toxic release
   from a West Virginia chemical plant.\"

   http://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/0/f4d30b69ceaf486d8525794300620ead?OpenDocument

   -       Film review website Pajiba included the Bhopal gas accident in an
   article about man-made or natural disasters the writer would like to see
   used as \"backdrops for a Hollywood disaster movie.\"

   http://www.pajiba.com/pajiba_storytellers/10-manmade-and-natural-disasters-that-would-make-awesome-badass-backdrops-for-a-hollywood-disaster-movie.php

   Also of interest, a Dow Corning press release announced it will \" feature
   silicone-based solutions for use in transdermal drug delivery, topical
   treatment and pharmaceutical processing at CPhI India 2011, 30 Nov - 2 Dec
   2011 at Bombay Exhibition Centre, Mumbai, India.\"

   This may be a protest opportunity for the Bhopal activists, especially
   given the recent controversy over questionable ethics involved in the
   BMHRC's inclusion of gas-affected patients in drug trials.

   http://www.webwire.com/ViewPressRel.asp?aId=149026

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-11-10 17:22:42",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/395271_bhopal-update-11-10-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
395677,"Bhopal update - 11-23-11 media
","   Scot, Tomm,

   India Blooms News Service (IBNS) picked up the Tessa Jowell press release
   from the UK Labour Party website and noted \", in India on the other hand
   there is a situation where neither the Sports Minister or any MP in the
   Congress or the opposition has raised any objections to the issue of Dow
   sponsoring the Olympics.\"

   The article cited Rachna Dhingra describing the ICJB petition opposing the
   sponsorship that was signed by the 22 former Olympians from India, and the
   several officials to whom it was addressed. The remainder of the article
   quoted from Jowell's press release.

   http://www.newkerala.com/news/2011/worldnews-112293.html

   Hindustan Times reported on opposition to the planned Jaitapur nuclear
   power plant, discussing political opposition by the Shiv Sena party and
   local activist protests planned for Dec. 3, \"a day of protests against
   industrial disasters.\"

   Shiv Sena: 
   http://www.hindustantimes.com/News-Feed/mumbai/Sena-targets-state-over-Jaitapur-again/Article1-772799.aspx

   Local protest: 
   http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-news/Mumbai/After-seven-months-protests-begin-again/Article1-772803.aspx

   Daily News & Analysis published an oddly written article about \"noted
   ecologist Madhav Gadgil\" calling for citizens to \"ensure\" laws written for
   environmental protection during \"progress.\" Gadgil claimed to have
   discovered \"rampant falsification of statistics by government officials\"
   while conducting research on \"the Bhopal gas tragedy and the Goa mining
   scam.\" No specifics were offered. Full text available on request.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-11-23 17:02:21",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/395677_bhopal-update-11-23-11-media-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
395771,"RE: more lies
","Yeah, but he saved hers earlier, so they're even. 



-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Wednesday, February 10, 2010 7:58 AM
To: Scott Stewart
Cc: Anya Alfano; 'korena zucha'
Subject: Re: more lies

I didn't know she saved his life?    

------Original Message------
From: Scott Stewart
To: Fred Burton
Cc: Anya Alfano
Cc: 'korena zucha'
Subject: RE: more lies
Sent: Feb 10, 2010 6:35 AM

I think we should definitely include the stuff where she mischaracterizes
Stratfor and her work for us to others. Afghanistan travel, burkah,
bulletproof vest, saving Nate's life etc.  We could do a separate category
for that.  




-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, February 09, 2010 11:45 PM
To: Scott Stewart
Cc: Anya Alfano; 'korena zucha'
Subject: Re: more lies

Are lies about her work locations work related or considered part of her
fantasy? 

Just not sure which is what.
","2010-02-10 14:07:20",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/395771_re-more-lies-.html","scott.stewart@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,anya.alfano@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
395929,"Bhopal update - 08-03-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   Daily Pioneer reported the Bhopal District and Sessions court issued
   notices to the CBI and the eight former UCIL officials who were convicted
   in 2010 on criminal charges in the Bhopal gas accident. The notices were
   about the MP State's request to revise the sentences imposed on the men
   for stricter punishment. The State had also filed an appeal in the case.
   The next hearing on the sentence revision is set for August 20, while the
   appeal has been placed on hold.

   http://www.dailypioneer.com/358003/Gas-tragedy-Bhopal-district-court-issues-notice-to-CBI.html

   Coincidentally, the Indian journal Economic & Political Weekly published
   in its July 30 issue a 2+ page defense of the Supreme Court's rejecting
   the criminal case curative petition (aka Bhopal Criminal Curative). The
   writer is SC advocate Raghav Shankar. He argued the curative petition was
   the wrong legal vehicle for the CBI's effort and criticism of the SC
   decision \"is based on an inadequate understanding\" of India's judicial
   process. Shankar pointed out the MP Sessions court can indeed reframe the
   charge if there is \"new evidence...that speaks directly to the knowledge
   of [Keshub] Mahindra and others\" about the potential for harm due to
   management decisions. However, he concluded \"justice would probably be
   best served\" if the CBI withdrew its revision petition and pursued the
   appeal for enhanced punishment. The CBI has said the sentence should have
   been \"two years [imprisonment] per wrongful death caused, with sentences
   running consecutively.\" This would have resulted in sentences of up to
   10,000 years.

   Full text should be available here in pdf format: 
   http://epw.in/epw/uploads/articles/16357.pdf

   Alternate access:  http://epw.in

   Indian environmental magazine Down To Earth published a report on the
   chemical waste disposal issue, but only through about July 15. The article
   quoted both Satinath Sarangi and Rachna Dhingra, although neither referred
   to the activist-preferred remedy of Dow shipping the material out of the
   country for disposal. Sarangi criticized government agencies for not
   obtaining proper clearances for the process and Dhingra repeated her
   question about \"the other 27,000 tonnes of waste lying outside the factory
   that is contaminating the groundwater and the air.\"

   http://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/bhopal-s-toxic-waste-raises-stink

   Business Standard published a staff-generated report on the GoI
   expenditures requests that PTI reported on Tuesday. The Bhopal
   compensation reference is brief.

   Not available online, the article appeared on p4 of the epaper edition.

   From activist resources:

   Colin Toogood posted on Twitter and Facebook a link to a Natural News
   article on a Minnesota Court of Appeals ruling that proprietors of organic
   farms may sue neighboring non-organic operations for \"trespass\" of
   drifting agricultural chemicals.

   http://www.naturalnews.com/033216_GMO_contamination_lawsuits.html

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-08-03 17:34:37",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/395929_bhopal-update-08-03-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
396300,"DOW CONFIDENTIAL: Bhopal Monitoring Report Friday, December 02, 2011
","Contact AIM for more Information                                                                                                                                         
Significant Activist Activity                                                                                                                                            
 India anniversary events: ICJB protests, rail roko; PAN People's Tribunal; Panel on nuclear laws                                                                        
 UK anniversary events: Scottish Parliament Motion, BMA events                                                                                                           
 US anniversary events: Boston Occupy rally, film screening; Austin \"die-in\"                                                                                             
 12/2 Amnesty UK: LOCOG should admit it \"made a mistake\" in awarding Dow the stadium wrap sponsorship                                                                    
 12/2 Greenpeace blog: Tell LOCOG to drop Dow, sign change.org petition                                                                                                  
 12/2 B. Gardiner post called for \"one final push\" for LOCOG \"to do the right thing\"                                                                                     
 Change.org petitions: more than 6,500 signatures for LOCOG; Indian athlete adresses IOA president                                                                       
Media                                                                                                                                                                    
 11/30 PTI: Jabbar, BPGMUS to protest at CM Chouhan's house                                                                                                              
 12/1 IBNS: Chingari Trust commemoration                                                                                                                                 
 12/1 ToI: Olympians, UK MP Navin Shah to lead Bhopal rally                                                                                                              
  Bhopal anniversary media summary: Dec. 1-2                                                                                                                             
 12/2 Global media: Bhopal anniversary protests - Coe, Malhotra, Olympic stadium effigies burned                                                                         
 12/2 AP: Lengthy review of Dow Olympics sponsorship controversy; Gardiner compared wrap to 'skin' of Bhopal victims                                                     
 12/2 India media: Gas NGO plans for 'rail roko' on Saturday                                                                                                             
 12/1-2 UK, India media: Gardiner on Activist/MP/Celebrity letter to LOCOG; \"legal challenge\" possible                                                                   
 12/1 Telegraph UK: Newham request to drop Dow denied by LOCOG                                                                                                           
 12/1 Down to Earth: GoI, CPCB report to MP HC approves of Bhopal factory waste disposal at DRDO site near Nagpur                                                        
 12/1 Telegraph India: Former Indian Olympians wrote to Sports minister Maken                                                                                            
 12/2 CNN-IBN: Dow affidavit filed with Indian SC on compensation issue                                                                                                  
 Local media: MDN; MLive pickups of AP articles                                                                                                                          
 11/30 Sportz Power: IOA meeting challenges - members traveling; boycott not called for by IOA members                                                                   
 12/2 Grist, Guardian blog: PAN PPT \"trial of pesticide companies\" seeks to find wider audience for information                                                          
 11/29 BBC radio: In-depth discussion of boycott possibility - Verma, Sarangi among guests                                                                               
Activist Activity                                                                                                                                                        
 Bhopali film screenings: London, MIT, NYC, Pittsburgh, Toronto, Madison; film also available for download                                                               
 PAN PPT session 12/3-6 will \"share the testimonies of...the trial's witnesses with a wider audience\"                                                                    
 12/1 London Assembly press release: questions previously submitted to LOCOG, London mayor                                                                               
 Blogs: UK sports writers criticize India boycott idea                                                                                                                   
 Social media: BMA, Twitter campaign for petition; US activist comments on Granholm's program                                                                            
 12/1 PR Green: No Pesticide Day observance in Puerto Rico                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                         
India anniversary events: ICJB protests, rail roko; PAN People's Tribunal; Panel on nuclear laws                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                         
ICJB events planned in Bhopal as indicated on the schedule it had issued at the beginning of the week:                                                                   
 - 12/1 at 1 p.m. - Burn effigy of Dow at Lily Talkies Crossing                                                                                                          
 - 12/2 - noon to 3 p.m. - Rally with \"replica of Olympic stadium\" and an effigy of Lord Coe \"as a mouthpiece of Dow Chemicals\" that are to be burned at the \"public     
meeting\" at the end of the rally. \"National Olympians M/s Ashok Dhyanchand, Jalaluddin Rizvi, Sameer Daad and a member of the London Assembly, Navin Shah will be part   
of this rally.\"                                                                                                                                                          
 - 12/3 Rail Roko - time/place to be determined                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                         
12/2-3 Separately, gas NGO BGPMUS led by Abdul Jabbar plans to hold a \"dharna\" protest outside MP Chief Minister Chouhan's residence.                                    
                                                                                                                                                                         
12/3-6 in Bangalore, Pesticide Action Network will hold its Permanent People's Tribunal \"trial\" of pesticide/agrichemical companies. See entry under Activist Activity   
for details.                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                         
12/3 in New Delhi at 2 p.m., the Coalition for Nuclear Disarmament (CNDP) will hold a panel discussion on India's nuclear safety and civil liability legislation.        
Panelists will be ND Jayaprakash, Gopal Krishna, Achin Vanaik, Suvrat Raju, Prabir Purkayastha, and PK Sundaram. Admiral (ret.) L. Ramdas will chair the event. The      
location is Urdu Ghar, 212, Den Dayal Upadhyaya Marg, New Delhi.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                         
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UK anniversary events: Scottish Parliament Motion, BMA events                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                         
A motion has been tabled in the Scottish Parliament on the occasion of the 27th Bhopal gas disaster anniversary. The motion, *S4M-01472, is credited to Joan McAlpine    
who is also a reporter for the Scotsman. The motion \"condemns\" Dow Chemical for a perceived \"poor human rights record\" and calls on Scottish MPs to support the Scottish 
Friends of Bhopal letter calling for LOCOG to review the Dow sponsorship deal. The letter is to be submitted to The Times. Full text of the motion is attached.          
                                                                                                                                                                         
BMA emailed its list of events for the anniversary, including:                                                                                                           
-     \"2 minutes of silence at the G20\" in a meeting chaired by UK MP Barry Gardiner at the Durban, South Africa conference. Gardiner also intended to make use of his   
time there to expand the network of supporters for the campaign against Dow's Olympic sponsorship.                                                                       
-     Scottish Friends of Bhopal \"memorial service\" (plaque dedication at Greyfriars Kirk in Edinburgh)                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                         
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US anniversary events: Boston Occupy rally, film screening; Austin \"die-in\"                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                         
Only two Bhopal anniversary \"actions\" were announced in the U.S:                                                                                                         
Boston, MA                                                                                                                                                               
12/2 - noon to 1 p.m. An ICJB-Boston Bhopal anniversary presentation at the OccupyBoston campaign location in Dewey Square. Topic: \"the tragedy and how Bhopal's fight   
has also been emblematic of the struggles of the 99% against corporations.\"                                                                                              
       - 7 p.m Bhopali film screening at MIT with discussion by Max Carlson, Sanjay Verma and ICJB members.                                                              
Austin, TX                                                                                                                                                               
12/2 - 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. Die-in at UT-Austin West Mall behind the fountain.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                         
Several creenings of the Bhopali film are scheduled for various locations around the US. through the upcoming week. Further details are provided in the Activist         
Activity section below.                                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/2 Amnesty UK: LOCOG should admit it \"made a mistake\" in awarding Dow the stadium wrap sponsorship                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                         
Amnesty UK has issued a statement on the Bhopal anniversary and criticizing LOCOG for being \"irresponsible\" in saying it does not see Dow having any responsibility on   
the Bhopal issue.                                                                                                                                                        
Amnesty Int'l Business and Human Rights leader Seem Joshi said: \"LOCOG should publicly state that ongoing human rights concerns were not considered prior to the         
contract being given to the Dow Chemical Company and that they made a mistake.\"                                                                                          
Full text attached.                                                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/2 Greenpeace blog: Tell LOCOG to drop Dow, sign change.org petition                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                         
Greenpeace has posted a blog statement about the Bhopal anniversary, headlined \"Tell London Olympics Committee to Drop the Dow Chemical Company.\" The statement explains 
the accident process, followed by the allegation that Union Carbide \"has never taken full responsibility for the destruction it caused at Bhopal.\" The post also charges 
Dow with similar actions of \"downplaying.complicity for the disaster.\" It ends with an appeal for readers to sign the change.org petition addressed to LOCOG. Full text  
attached.                                                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/2 B. Gardiner post called for \"one final push\" for LOCOG \"to do the right thing\"                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                         
UK MP Barry Gardiner posted an item on the Labour party website titled \"We cannot allow London Olympics to add insult to injury for victims of Bhopal.\" He claimed       
leadership of the campaign against Dow's Olympic sponsorship and that \"we now need one final push to ensure LOCOG do the right thing, and to protect the international   
reputation of the London 2012 games.\"                                                                                                                                    
He asked readers to sign the Change.org petition and said \"We have teamed up with change.org\" on the petition, which is apparently why it was moved to the front of the  
change.org website as a \"featured\" petition and has jumped so quickly in signatures. Full text attached.                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                         
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Change.org petitions: more than 6,500 signatures for LOCOG; Indian athlete adresses IOA president                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                         
The Change.org petition (sometimes being called \"Lorraine's campaign\") addressed to Lord Coe asking for review of the Dow sponsorship has gained momentum, reaching a    
total of more than 6,500 signatures, compared to Wednesday afternoon when it had only 1,200 signatures. The goal is 10,000 signatures. Barry Gardiner claims to have     
\"teamed up\" with change.org, resulting in this petition being moved to the front of the activist/petition website, thus attracting more attention.                       
                                                                                                                                                                         
Another change.org petition was posted addressed to V K Malhotra, acting president of the Indian Olympic Association, and calling for \"Boycott Dow-lympics.\" The         
petition rationale combines Bhopal and Agent Orange issues in Vietnam as reasons for wanting India to boycott the Olympics.                                              
There are currently 26 signatures with a goal of 100. The petition is credited to Jalaluddin Rizvi, a 1984 Indian Olympic hockey player.                                 
                                                                                                                                                                         
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11/30 PTI: Jabbar, BPGMUS to protest at CM Chouhan's house                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                         
PTI reported Abdul Jabbar \"threatened of holding a dharna\" on 12/2-3 at CM Chouhan's residence as an anniversary observance. Jabbar addressed the media, complaining the 
\"district court\" has \"a total lack of seriousness\" in hearing the case on enhancing the sentences in the Bhopal criminal case. He also said the GoI and MP state have    
not implemented the several projects or programs for the gas victims that have been announced \"in the last 18 months.\"                                                   
http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_bhopal-gas-tragedy-organisation-accuses-centre-state-of-inaction_1619422                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/1 IBNS: Chingari Trust commemoration                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                         
-        IBNS reported Chingari Trust children, their parents, and clinic staff \"paid condolences\" to the Bhopal gas tragedy victims with a \"small peaceful candle march 
from Chingari rehabilitation centre to D.I.G. Bungalow Square, in the evening.\" The services offered by the trust were also described.                                   
http://www.washingtonbanglaradio.com/content/123774911-children-pay-homage-bhopal-victims                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/1 ToI: Olympians, UK MP Navin Shah to lead Bhopal rally                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                         
Times of India reported the former Olympians Ashok Dhyanchand, Jalaluddin Rizvi, Sameer Daad and others planned to lead the Bhopal anniversary rally from the Bharat     
Talkies to the former UCIL factory. UK MP Navin Shah \"said he was joined by the Labour Party's Friends of India and a cross-party coalition of MPs at the Olympic site\"  
to protest the Dow stadium wrap sponsorship.                                                                                                                             
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bhopal/Ex-Olympians-to-lead-rally-for-gas-survivors/articleshow/10947069.cms                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                         
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Bhopal anniversary media summary: Dec. 1-2                                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                         
Global media provided coverage of the Bhopal anniversary events beginning 12/1 with NGO press releases announcing the several anniversary rallies and activities in      
Bhopal, followed by reporting as each event occurred. Associated Press, UK Press Association, SkyNews, IANS and PTI issued wire stories that received considerable       
pickup.                                                                                                                                                                  
-        AP posted two items - an initial report of the 12/2 rally and effigy burnings, and a later in-depth report on the Olympic stadium sponsorship controversy. Each 
received 100+ pickups, especially across the US markets.                                                                                                                 
-       UKPA and SkyNews reports on the 12/2 events were seen across the UK and Canada, with approx. 50 pickups total.                                                   
-       IANS and PTI items were used mainly by Indian media outlets. These also reported on Barry Gardiner, Ken Livingston, sports figures and \"celebrities\" signing a   
letter to LOCOG calling for the stadium wrap deal to be cancelled.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/2 Global media: Bhopal anniversary protests - Coe, Malhotra, Olympic stadium effigies burned                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                         
A succession of wire articles reported on the Bhopal gas tragedy anniversary protests in Bhopal: First the UK's SkyNews, then the UK Press Association, then the AP.     
-   SkyNews gave a fairly high-level overview of the Olympics protest situation, simply stating \"protests are being held\" over the next few days during the anniversary  
period and the activists are \"angry\" about Dow's Olympic sponsorship deal. The IOA meeting and prior reports of voting to boycott are mentioned. The stadium wrap plan   
is described and the pressure being put on LOCOG, but no details or names of groups/individuals. Dow's position on Bhopal is briefly noted.                              
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/protests-over-olympic-deal-chemical-firm-095056665.html                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                         
-   UK Press Association reported more detail from the Bhopal rallies, noting \"more than 200\" took part in the march to the former UCIL factory site and burned effigies 
of Coe and Malhotra. MP CM Chouhan's letter to Sports minister Maken is mentioned, as is the letter to LOCOG from the 21 Indian athletes asking for Dow's sponsorship to 
be dropped. Dow's Bhopal position is briefly mentioned, as is the GoI \"seeking an additional 1.7 billion dollars for the victims from Union Carbide, and activists       
accuse Dow of not cleaning up contamination in Bhopal.\" Malhotra and LOCOG's most recent statement about not boycotting and not dropping the wrap sponsorship are        
included. The five Bhopal gas NGOs plan for the railway blockade on Saturday ends the piece. About 50 pickups mainly in UK local and regional media, as well as the      
Independent.                                                                                                                                                             
http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/world-news/bhopal-survivors-burn-coe-effigy-2952674.html                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                         
-  AP issued a report very similar to the UKPA's, credited to reporter Rafiq Maqbool. This was seen in 100+ media outlets in the UK, Canada and US. Pickups of note      
include MLive.com, Washington Post, Washington Examiner, Toronto Star, San Francisco Chronicle, CBS News, ABC News, Salon.com, Huffington Post, Seattle                  
Post-Intelligencer, Seattle Times, Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Miami Herald, Boston.com and SI.com.                                                                        
http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2011/12/02/bhopal_survivors_protest_dows_olympic_sponsorship/                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                         
-   BBC issued a report on the protests with a slightly more local perspective, quoting Coe's statement on being \"satisfied\" that Dow is not responsible for the Bhopal  
issue. Ken Livingstone is mentioned as having made a statement \"earlier this week\" that \"urged a rethink on Dow Chemical's role.\" Malhotra's statement was included on   
the IOA not holding a boycott vote but \"the issue would be raised with the organizers.\"                                                                                  
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-16001266                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                         
-  IANS issued a report from the protests, quoting UK MP Navin Shah and ICJB activist Rachna Dhingra. Shah called Dow's Olympic sponsorship deal \"disgusting,\" said the  
issue has been introduced in the London Assembly, and \"the Indian government should raise the issue with the Olympics Organizing Committee\" or face pressure from Indian 
leaders to do so. Dhingra said if the deal is not cancelled, the activists \"will hold a Bhopal Olympics to coincide with the event. Children with congenital             
disabilities caused due to the gas leak and Vietnamese children hurt by Dow's Agent Orange will perform at the Bhopal Olympics.\" Several pickups, mainly in Indian media 
outlets.                                                                                                                                                                 
Wall Street Journal's India RealTime blog linked to a post of IANS' previous report on the anniversary protest plans.                                                    
http://www.inewsone.com/2011/12/02/sebastian-coes-effigy-burnt-on-bhopal-gas-tragedys-27th-anniversary/94275                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                         
 - UK's Daily Mail posted a series of photos from the day's protests, showing the Coe, Malhotra and stadium effigies prior to and while being burned; an official photo  
of Coe; and images of the protesters.                                                                                                                                    
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2069167/Sebastian-Coe-effigy-burned-Bhopal-protesters-furious-chemical-firms-links-2012-London-Olympics.html                     
                                                                                                                                                                         
 - Daily Pioneer reported BJP state president and MP Prabhat Jha sympathized with the gas victims and said the government should do more for them.                       
http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/24937-bjp-fight-for-gas-tragedy-victims-will-continue-jha.html                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                         
 - Daily Pioneer reported separately Navin Shah said now he has begun a petition asking \"people from India and UK to create pressure on LOCOG to reconsider its          
position.\"                                                                                                                                                               
http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25022-protestors-burn-olympic-games-partners-effigies.html                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/2 AP: Lengthy review of Dow Olympics sponsorship controversy; Gardiner compared wrap to 'skin' of Bhopal victims                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                         
A lengthy AP story by Danika Kirka and Ravi Nessman explored the controversy over Dow sponsoring the Olympic stadium wrap, describing the company's \"Top\" sponsor        
designation by the International Olympic Committee and the difficulties that status presents to Lord Coe's ability to back down from stadium sponsorship.                
The Bhopal, environmental, and human rights activist groups objections are described, as are Dow and UCC's positions regarding the Bhopal tragedy.                       
Comments of note include Scott Rosner, Wharton Sports Business Initiative, who discussed \"the risk of the association and the sponsorship backfiring\" and impacting the  
Games.                                                                                                                                                                   
Conversely, UK MP Barry Gardiner, Labour Party and head of Labour Friends of India, said the Bhopal people are offended to the point a stadium wrap produced by Dow      
\"might as well be the skin of the families that died [in the gas accident].\"                                                                                             
The article appeared under at least two titles: \"London Olympics under fire for Dow Chemical ties\" and \"London Olympics under fire for Dow Chemical ties.\"               
Current pickups are primarily U.S., including: Washington Post, San Francisco Chronicle, CBS News, ABC News, Seattle Times, Minneapolis Star-Tribune, SI.com, Denver     
Post, Newsday, ESPN, Huffington Post and NPR.                                                                                                                            
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/industries/big-sponsor-big-problem-dows-links-to-bhopal-disaster-reflect-on-2012-london-olympics/2011/12/02/gIQAtEJPLO_story.html 
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/2 India media: Gas NGO plans for 'rail roko' on Saturday                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                         
Indian media have reported further on the rail roko event planned for Saturday.                                                                                          
-   The Hindu reported Rachna Dhingra said the NGOs have been talking with the government for six months about changing the data used in the curative petition on        
compensation. The groups intend to keep the trains stopped until the GoI capitulates to their demand.                                                                    
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article2681980.ece                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                         
-  Daily Pioneer reported details of locations where the blockades are likely to occur. Law enforcement is to be deployed. Activist Balkrishna Namdeo said the protests  
are to be non-violent, but they are willing to be arrested.                                                                                                              
http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25028-voluntary-organisations-call-for-rail-roko-today.html                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/1-2 UK, India media: Gardiner on Activist/MP/Celebrity letter to LOCOG; \"legal challenge\" possible                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                         
Hindustan Times reported UK MP Barry Gardiner said the Labour Friends of India planned \"press events and meetings with legislators 'across the world'\" on the occasion   
of the Bhopal anniversary. Gardiner also said he will personally meet G20 political leaders in Durban, S. Africa on Saturday \"to raise concerns about 'Dow's failure to  
remediate the site at Bhopal and to take proper environmental and social corporate responsibility.'\"                                                                     
In London, Ken Livingstone is to \" launch a public petition of 'thousands of signatures' at the Olympic site at Stratford.\"                                              
http://www.hindustantimes.com/News-Feed/Athletics/British-MPs-want-Dow-ousted/Article1-776747.aspx                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                         
The Independent reported \"more than a hundred\" individuals and rights groups have called for LOCOG to cancel Dow's sponsorship deal. According to this brief article,    
Ken Livingstone has been joined by Noam Chomsky, Martin Sheen \"and a host of Indian Olympians and politicians\" in signing a letter requesting the sponsorship be         
reconsidered. While no link to the letter is offered, it appears to suggest this is a different letter than the ones previously reported.                                
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/olympics/leading-figures-demand-ban-on-olympic-sponsor-6271128.html                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                         
The Hindu reported on the letter to LOCOG signed by MPs, \"celebrities\" and others including Livingstone, Simon Hughes, MP Pritti Patel, Noam Chomsky, Martin Sheen,      
Indra Sinha and several Indian film and sports figures. Chomsky is quoted, describing the Bhopal gas victims as having \"every right to expect us to join them in their   
courageous efforts\" at enforcing accountability for \"one of the worst corporate crimes in history, and to gain some compensation for their suffering.\" Gardiner and      
Livingstone are also quoted on the rationale for asking LOCOG to reconsider Dow's sponsorship.                                                                           
http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/article2681773.ece                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                         
The Hindu's Business Line expanded on the reporting on the above-mentioned letter, quoting Ken Livingstone, apparently from today's press conference in London:          
\"We will certainly be looking at the possibility of a legal challenge. If we can't afford a wrap for the stadium I'd rather not have one than have one contaminated by   
the death of 25,000 people.\"                                                                                                                                             
Coe's statement of confidence in Dow not having liabilities for the Bhopal gas leak, and a brief rendition of the history of the stadium wrap conclude the article.      
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/article2681580.ece?ref=wl_agri-biz                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/1 Telegraph UK: Newham request to drop Dow denied by LOCOG                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                         
Telegraph UK reported LOCOG rejected the anticpated request from Newham Borough's council to review Dow's sponsorship. Newham mayor Robin Wales said he is disappointed  
in the decision.                                                                                                                                                         
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/sport/jmagnay1/100022044/london-2012-olympics-diary-locog-rejects-newhams-call-for-dow-chemical-sponsorship-review/                         
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/1 Down to Earth: GoI, CPCB report to MP HC approves of Bhopal factory waste disposal at DRDO site near Nagpur                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                         
Down to Earth, India's environment magazine, reported the GoI and Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) submitted a report to the Jabalpur bench of the MP High Court   
on Nov. 22 and are still in favor of disposing of the chemical waste from the former UCIL plant site in Bhopal at the DRDO facility near Nagpur. This article claims the 
report \"ignores some vital facts,\" which are the Maharashtra PCB said the DRDO facility is not suitable for disposing of heavy metals, the DRDO facility has not been    
functional for the past two years, and the MPCB must conduct a hearing into the matter. Reportedly, no formal application has been made to the MPCB for such a hearing.  
The stay on transport of the chemical waste has been extended to Dec. 9, when the Maharashtra government is to reply in the Jabalpur court to the GoI report.            
http://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/environment-ministry-cpcb-endorse-burning-bhopals-toxic-waste-nagpur                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/1 Telegraph India: Former Indian Olympians wrote to Sports minister Maken                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                         
India's Telegraph reported the 21 ex-Olympians have each written to Sports minister Maken \"reminding him of the US giant's link with the tragedy.\" Maken has not         
responded to the Olympians or CM Chouhan's letters yet. The article reported Maken asked the cabinet secretariat for input and was referred to the Ministry for External 
Affairs. An unidentified sports ministry official said that agency can't ask Indian athletes not to participate in an international event, and \"It is for the government 
as a whole to decide whether it wants to oppose Dow's sponsorship.\"                                                                                                      
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1111201/jsp/nation/story_14822936.jsp                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/2 CNN-IBN: Dow affidavit filed with Indian SC on compensation issue                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                         
CNN-IBN reported Dow representatives filed an affidavit with the Indian Supreme Court saying the company will not pay more compensation for the Bhopal gas tragedy, the  
settlement was \"more than adequate and fair,\" it was 3 times more than required by Indian law, and UCC was not responsible for the daily operation of the UCIL plant as  
it was under Indian control. Few pickups so far.                                                                                                                         
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/dow-refuses-to-pay-more-to-bhopal-victims/208059-3.html                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                         
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Local media: MDN; MLive pickups of AP articles                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                         
11/30 Midland Daily News print edition ran the AP article from Monday, located on page A3 at the top.                                                                    
12/2 MLive.com picked up both of the day's AP articles on the Bhopal anniversary protests and the Olympic stadium sponsorship.                                           
                                                                                                                                                                         
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11/30 Sportz Power: IOA meeting challenges - members traveling; boycott not called for by IOA members                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                         
Indian sports media SportzPower published an article reporting the IOA meeting on 12/5 \"is not going to happen,\" partly because IOA secretary general Raja Randhir Singh 
will be traveling to Lausanne, Switzerland that day. Unidentified \"top sources\" also indicated none of the former Olympians who signed are IOA members, and that none of 
the active athletes \"have written anything\" about the Dow sponsorship.                                                                                                   
This article reported the IOC \"has been circulating\" a document with background on the Bhopal gas accident and subsequent activities of the Indian governments and UCC   
\"to place on the table the facts of the case against the detractors, who are linking Dow Chemical Company with Union Carbide Company.\"                                   
http://www.sportzpower.com/?q=content/dow-chemicals-issue-no-concern-ioa-has-no-issue-london-2012-0                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/2 Grist, Guardian blog: PAN PPT \"trial of pesticide companies\" seeks to find wider audience for information                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                         
The UK's Guardian environment blog reported on the PAN People's Tribunal \"trial of pesticide companies\" that begins in Bangalore on Saturday. The blog post focuses on   
bee colony collapse syndrome that is blamed on neonicotiniod pesticides.                                                                                                 
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2011/dec/02/pesticides-bees?newsfeed=true                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                         
Grist.com posted an article on the PPT, saying \"Whether or not the trial will have any real impact on the these companies' bottom lines is hard to predict, but PAN is   
using the occasion to share the testimonies of several of the trial's witnesses with a wider audience.\"                                                                  
http://www.grist.org/industrial-agriculture/2011-11-30-pesticide-on-trial                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                         
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11/29 BBC radio: In-depth discussion of boycott possibility - Verma, Sarangi among guests                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                         
BBC Asian Network radio program host Nihal entertained discussion of whether and why India should boycott the London Olympics over Dow's sponsorship of the stadium      
wrap. Telephone guests on the one-hour program were (in order of appearance) Bhopal activist Sanjay Verma, reporter Sangeeta (last name unclear), UK MP Rashnara Ali,    
Indian freelance sports writer Norris Pritham, BMA trustee/Sambhavna Clinic administrator Sathuy Sarangi, and call-in participant Priya.                                 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b017j3lg/Nihal_Boycotting_the_Olympics_for_political_reasons./                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                         
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Bhopali film screenings: London, MIT, NYC, Pittsburgh, Toronto, Madison; film also available for download                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                         
Bhopali documentary film screenings are to take place around the Bhopal anniversary. ICJB activist Sanjay Verma is scheduled for at least two appearances screenings at  
MIT and in New York City.                                                                                                                                                
 Bhopali documentary director Max Carlson tweeted that the film is now available on demand from distributor IndiePix. The distributor's website indicates half of the    
proceeds go to the Bhopal Medical Appeal website Bhopal.org.                                                                                                             
Screenings:                                                                                                                                                              
-        11/30  Frontline Club in London, UK with \"special guest speaker Indra Sinha, award winning writer of Animal's People\"                                           
-        12/1  University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, by AID Pittsburgh                                                                                               
-        12/2  Bloor Street United Church of Canada, Toronto, as part of Amnesty International Film Festival, followed by a talk by Amnesty and ICJB US advisory board   
member Ellen Shifrin                                                                                                                                                     
-        12/3  MIT  followed by discussion with Sanjay Verma from Bhopal, filmmaker Max Carlson, and ICJB members                                                        
-        12/8  IndieScreen, Williamsburgh, New York City, \"followed by a Q&A with Sanjay Verma, activist & survivor of the 1984 Union Carbide Gas Disaster in Bhopal.    
50% of proceeds will go to Bhopal.org\" (AIM note: This had been previously scheduled for 12/1)                                                                           
-        12/10 screening and panel at Alwan for the Arts, NYC (an \"Arab community\" venue), \"followed by a serious panel discussion with survivor & activist Sanjay       
Verma, Director Max Carlson, AID NYC and many more TBA\"                                                                                                                  
-        University of Wisconsin - Madison's Indian Graduate Student Association (IGSA) is hosting a screening of the Bhopali film, but the date is unclear. The post    
reads \"December 6, Saturday,\" 7 p.m. at the Marquee Theatre, Union South, 1308 W. Dayton St.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                         
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PAN PPT session 12/3-6 will \"share the testimonies of...the trial's witnesses with a wider audience\"                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                         
The Pesticide Action Network's Permanent People's Tribunal (PPT) scheduled for Dec. 3-6 will be held in Bangalore, India.                                                
 - \"Jurors\" are to include \"include renowned legal experts such as Gurdial Singh Nijjar, Director of the Centre of Excellence for Biodiversity Law at the University     
Malaya; Pananchand Jain, retired Rajasthan High Court Justice; and Upendra Baxi, former President of the Indian Society of International Law.[and] scientists and        
experts such as Dr. Ricarda A. Steinbrecher, a biologist and geneticist with the German Federation of Scientists.\"                                                       
 - The PPT website posted a schedule for livestreaming of the proceedings and when the main speakers will be on. Full text attached.                                     
                                                                                                                                                                         
PAN UK, PAN Asia Pacific (PAN AP) and PAN North America (PANNA) each posted several documents on the event with focus tailored to the respective regions, but do not     
specify allegations against Dow beyond the De-Nocil payments issue.                                                                                                      
-     The PAN UK press release includes several bulleted notes for editors on pesticide issues, so is being attached as a representative sample. All the documents are   
available on request.                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/1 London Assembly press release: questions previously submitted to LOCOG, London mayor                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                         
London Assembly member John Biggs issued a press release about his questioning of Coe, LOCOG CEO Deighton and London mayor Johnson about the appropriateness of the Dow  
sponsorship. Biggs stated his opposition to the sponsorship and included excerpts from transcripts of meetings on Oct. 19 and Nov. 16 when he posed his questions. Biggs 
is the Assembly member representing the constituency including Tower Hamlet, Newham, Barking & Dagenham and the City of London.                                          
http://www.london.gov.uk/media/press_releases_assembly_member/news-john-biggs-olympic-legacy-should-not-include-bhopal                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                         
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Blogs: UK sports writers criticize India boycott idea                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                         
Two sports writer blogs have posts about the potential Indian boycott:                                                                                                   
-        Alan Hubbard of the Independent called the boycott rumor \"nothing but a storm in a teacup.\" He observed, \"In any case, boycotts don't work\" and cited the       
Moscow and Los Angeles boycotts, where \"some athletes may miss out on the bandwagon driven by politicians, but the Games show rolls on regardless.\" Hubbard tacitly      
discounted Tessa Jowell's protestations, pointing out \"all London 2012 board members must have known of, and surely, approved, the financial arrangements with Dow when  
it was made.\" (Hubbard's post has a few typographical errors that alter the meaning of some phrases, such as IOA president Malhotra \"has given assurances that there     
will be a boycott.\")                                                                                                                                                     
http://www.insidethegames.biz/blogs/15025-alan-hubbard-indian-olympic-boycott-rumours-were-nothing-but-a-storm-in-a-teacup                                               
                                                                                                                                                                         
-        John Goodbody of the Sunday Times described the boycott call as \"a flurry of mild concern.from the unlikely source of India.\" Goodbody quoted several of the    
parties involved in the conversation but drew no further conclusions.                                                                                                    
http://www.sportsfeatures.com/olympicsnews/story/49210/john-goodbody-the-spectre-of-boycotts-can-always-return-to-the-olympic-games                                      
                                                                                                                                                                         
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Social media: BMA, Twitter campaign for petition; US activist comments on Granholm's program                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                         
BMA's Facebook and Twitter posts include                                                                                                                                 
 - Multiple links to prior media and activist items about the boycott discussion, DAS India's blacklisting, etc.                                                         
 - Link to a 9-minute YouTube video on the Bhopal gas tragedy. The video is not from a recognizable source, has few views.                                               
                                                                                                                                                                         
Anti-Dow Olympics Facebook page:                                                                                                                                         
 - Farah Edwards posted on the a link to BBC radio phone-in program \"Nihal\" (see media item above) about whether India should boycott the games. Edwards and Lorraine    
Close were upset about the \"patronizing\" treatment of the topic. Close asked if the Edwards (Tim and Farah) would support her if she wrote to the BBC about the program. 
-   Posts between Lorraine Close and photojournalist Jack Laurenson discussed promotion of her Change.org petition via Twitter as it surpassed 6,000 signatures.         
                                                                                                                                                                         
12/2 Twitter searches for Bhopal as a topic revealed a few hundred tweets, mainly with tie-in to the Olympic sponsorship controversy. Several individuals, including     
Laurenson and \"Debbie Aitken\" have sent messages to multiple recipients with the same request to support the campaign to drop Dow's sponsorship.                         
A few tweets of interest:                                                                                                                                                
-  Mischa Husain of BBC: \"Amnesty received a letter last week in which Lord Sebastian Coe dismissed #humanrights concerns about Dow.\"                                    
-  Greenpeace: \"27th anniversary of #Bhopal tragedy today yet #London2012 sponsors Dow Chemical still not held to account\"                                               
-   Jaqueline Magnay: \"Indians protesters respectful of seb coe. In burning him they dressed him in a suit. #bhopal\"                                                     
-    Weldon Kennedy: \"Lorraine telling the story of her experience in #Bhopal and her petition\"; \"Ken talking about crime of Dow sponsoring Olympics\" (these each had    
photos, see attached)                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                         
12/2 Climate change and water activist JanforGore (Janet Moore) has commented recently on Jennifer Granholm's new show on CurrentTV, with references to Granholm's brief 
stint on Dow's board and the Bhopal and dioxin issues. The latest comment is found here:                                                                                 
http://current.com/groups/current-video/93563579_granholm-i-dont-want-this-show-to-be-about-talking-points.htm                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                         
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12/1 PR Green: No Pesticide Day observance in Puerto Rico                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                         
Puerto Rico Green media reported on World Day of No Pesticide Use as a Bhopal gas tragedy commemoration. On Dec. 3, the Organization Boricua Eco-Organic Agriculture in  
a \"brigade in the community of Hato Rey Nuns\" will plant a garden without pesticides and invited public participation. A subsequent \"brigdade\" is planned for Dec. 10    
December at the Jibaro Project in Bo.  Minillas in San German.                                                                                                           
Spanish language article: http://www.miprv.com/dia-mundial-del-no-uso-de-plaguicidas-recordando-el-desastre-en-bhopal/                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                         
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  --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   
                                                                                                                                                                         
                                                                  Allis Information Management, Inc..                                                                    

   Please remove me from this mailing list.

    
","2011-12-03 03:42:01",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/396300_dow-confidential-bhopal-monitoring-report-friday-december-02.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","mongoven@stratfor.com","attach/35/35360_Activist_info_12-01-11_PPT_livestreaming_schedule.pdf
attach/35/35362_Blog_12-02-11_Greenpeace_statement.pdf
attach/35/35364_Activist_info_12-02-11_Amnesty_Intl_statement.pdf
attach/35/35365_Activist_info_11-17-11_PAN_UK_-_PPT_full_press_release.pdf
attach/35/35366_Scottish_Parliament_Motion_S4M-01472.pdf"
396396,"Yes Men monitoring 10-20-11
","","2011-10-20 22:30:53",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/396396_yes-men-monitoring-10-20-11-.html","mmartin@allisinfo.com","","mkolleth@dow.com,sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com","attach/35/35382_Activist email 10-17-11 YL - BFFs.doc"
396510,"DOW CONFIDENTIAL: Bhopal Monitoring Report Friday, December 09, 2011
","Contact AIM for more Information                                                                                                                                                     
Significant Activist Activity                                                                                                                                                        
 Amnesty USA online action addressed to USOC; Amnesty Int'l; Amnesty Canada; AI USA blog post                                                                                        
 Barry Gardiner: website posts of Hindu, \"Dow Olympic campaign\" update                                                                                                               
 12/3 Rail Roko turns violent, protesters injured and arrested; CM Chouhan agreed to compensation data demand; roko cancelled                                                        
 Petition: Goal attained, extended to 15,000 signatures                                                                                                                              
 Parliament motions: 19 supporters of Scottish motion; UK Early Day stalled at 21                                                                                                    
Media                                                                                                                                                                                
 Local media: Midland Daily News, Saginaw News                                                                                                                                       
 US anniversary actions: ICJB Boston; AID Austin (TX)                                                                                                                                
 12/3 PTI, India Today, ToI: UCC affidavit filing; Dow not recognizing India's juridiction over it                                                                                   
 12/7 Telegraph UK: LOCOG sustainability report favorable to Dow                                                                                                                     
 12/8 BBC: Dow committed to Olympic sponsorship                                                                                                                                      
 Olympic Media Summary                                                                                                                                                               
 12/3 Hindu: Activist coalition, Chomsky statement                                                                                                                                   
 12/3 BBC: Video report from BMA/Livingstone press conference at Olympic stadium                                                                                                     
 12/3 Guardian Ecologist: Blog promotes L. Close petition                                                                                                                            
 12/4-5 Express, Hindu: Tamil Nadu politicians urge boycott of Games                                                                                                                 
 12/5-6 Financial Times, Channel 4: Jowell interviews on opposing Dow Olympics sponsorship                                                                                           
 12/5 Global media: IOA statement on \"concern\" over \"tainted\" company sponsoring Olympics                                                                                            
 12/6 India media: IOA concern includes India's future bid for Olympics while Dow stil an IOC partner                                                                                
 12/6 Global media: IOC to IOA - \"talk to the athletes\" about Dow sponsorship                                                                                                        
 12/8 Telegraph UK: Two reports from Deighton's presentation at IOC meeting                                                                                                          
 12/6 Guardian: Dhingra, Gardiner welcomed IOA 'concern'; Commentary article cites BMA's Close                                                                                       
 12/6 Tribune India: Sarangi - IOA, GoI communications \"token efforts\"                                                                                                               
 12/6 Siaset: Aslam Sher Khan press event: wrote letter to S Gandhi, offered support to UK MPs                                                                                       
 12/7 PTI, SportzPower: IOA to meet, discuss Dow sponsorship issues 12/9, 12/15                                                                                                      
 12/9 Guardian blog: Recap of Olympics news included London borough politcs involving anti-Dow campaign                                                                              
 12/8 Reuters, PTI: Indian athletes let Dow find \"redemption\" via Olympic sponsorship; will follow GoI lead on Dow issue                                                             
 12/8 Indian Express: ICJB to hold \"Bhopal Olympics\"                                                                                                                                 
 Commentaries/editorials: Mid-Day Mumbai, Times of India, Bhopal Chronicle; Sri Lanka, UK media                                                                                      
 Bhopal Anniversary Media Summary                                                                                                                                                    
 12/3 Global media: Bhopal anniversary effigy burnings and protests                                                                                                                  
 12/3 Global media: Rail roko violence                                                                                                                                               
 12/4 AP: Rail roko violence aftermath                                                                                                                                               
 12/4 TwoCircles: Rail roko protest overview; 1/3/12 deadline for MP to submit \"correct\" data to SC                                                                                  
 12/5 PTI, DNA: 15 Rail roko arrests include gas NGO leader Balkrishna Namdeo                                                                                                        
 12/6 Pioneer: State responsible for rail violence                                                                                                                                   
 12/6-8 India media: MP, ICJB, MP HRC to hold enquiries into violence                                                                                                                
 12/6 Pioneer: Jabbar - ICJB partly responsible for rail violence                                                                                                                    
 12/9 ANI: Bhopal protest of police for rail roko violence calls for Chouhan to resign, threatens to 'ransack' his residence                                                         
 12/8 ToI: Bhopal residents complain of police harassment on questioning over rail roko                                                                                              
 12/7 PTI: Abdul Jabbar wants special courts for gas victims, MP to submit 'correct' data to SC                                                                                      
 12/9 DNA: Chouhan calls for Rs 10 lakh in compensation for 10,000 more gas victims                                                                                                  
 12/4 Express on Sunday: Chingari Trust                                                                                                                                              
 12/5 Pioneer: Chingari Trust awards                                                                                                                                                 
 12/8 Common Dreams: PANNA announced results of People's Tribunal - \"Big 6\" agrichem firms \"guilty\" of human rights violations                                                       
Activist Activity                                                                                                                                                                    
 12/4 BhopalNow website: first posting promotes Sambhavna, Chingari facilities                                                                                                       
 12/6 Force Change petition addressed to Liveris to \"assume corporate responsibility\" and clean up Bhopal                                                                            
 Bhopali film: Invitations to screenings; review; interview with Verma and Carlson                                                                                                   
 Ted Jeory blog: Bhopal visit during anniversary events; Newham mayor supports anti-Dow campaign                                                                                     
 BMA website updates: Bhopali interview; Environmentalist article; Anniversary event reports                                                                                         
 Blogs: Current.com; Toxics Watch; Hadida; sports blogs; UK Progressive; New Internationalist                                                                                        
 Message boards: Nayaran - ICJB action calls during rail violence; Games Monitor posts                                                                                               
 Social media: Farah Edwards driving BMA social media                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Amnesty USA online action addressed to USOC; Amnesty Int'l; Amnesty Canada; AI USA blog post                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Amnesty USA posted an online action addressed to the US Olympic Committee on the Bhopal anniversary and asking it to \"raise the issue of Dow's failure to address the long-standing  
environmental and human rights concerns about the Bhopal gas disaster in the Association of National Olympic Committees Executive Council Meeting on 6 December in Switzerland.\"     
(emphasis added)                                                                                                                                                                     
The online letter also calls for the IOC to amend is Sustainable Sourcing Code to include \"an explicit attention to human rights concerns.\"                                          
Amnesty is seeking for itself \"and other groups the opportunity to convey to the Olympic Committee their concerns about Dow's response to the Bhopal tragedy, and that the LOCOG     
prioritize the outstanding needs of survivors of the tragedy.\"                                                                                                                       
Full text of the letter is attached.                                                                                                                                                 
 - The BMA Twitter feed posted links to the AI USA website, and tweeted once to Amnesty Sweden/Holland.                                                                              
 - As is typical, Amnesty USA has not invested in ongoing promotion of the Bhopal issue, touching on it only in context of the Bhopal anniversary and then returning to more normal  
Amnesty topics.                                                                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Amnesty Int'l posted the Bhopal annivesary press statement by Business and Human Rights director Seema Joshi that was initially posted by Amnesty UK on 12/2.                        
http://www.amnestyusa.org/news/news-item/london-2012-organizers-must-not-forget-bhopal-disaster                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/5 Amnesty Canada website and Amnesty USA's Human Rights blog posted Bhopal items.                                                                                                 
- The Canada site began with a large photo on the front page of an elderly Bhopal activist and linked to the text of the UK Amnesty statement from 12/2, but no apparent link for a  
direct online action. It is also not listed in the Write for Rights campaign as a current issue.                                                                                     
 - The AI USA blog by Govind Acharya linked to the online action to contact the USOC and to Lorraine Close's change.org petition.                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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Barry Gardiner: website posts of Hindu, \"Dow Olympic campaign\" update                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Barry Gardiner's website had the following updates:                                                                                                                                  
The 12/2 Hindu article with quotes from himself and Noam Chomsky opposing the Dow Olympic sponsorship                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
An update on the Dow Olympic Campaign said it \"is gathering momentum\" and Gardner has \"been busy campaigning with Labour Friends of India.\" He listed six action updates:            
- \"Events in 3 continents\" on the 27the Bhopal gas tragedy anniversary - UK, India and Africa                                                                                        
- GoI's instruction to the IOA to communicate with LOCOG and the IOC                                                                                                                 
- Gardiner \"raised the issue of the ongoing contamination at Bhopal to leading politicians from 18 of the G20 countries\" while at the Climate Change Conference in Durban, S. Africa 
- Navin Shah represented the Labour Friends group at the Bhopal events                                                                                                               
- \"Ken Livingstone attended a press conference organized by Labour Friends of India at the Olympic Stadium in Stratford. Ken officially endorsed our campaign at the change.org      
website.\"                                                                                                                                                                            
- \"On Friday released a letter to LOCOG signed by over a hundred celebrities, politicians and Olympians.\" The update indicated the list of supporters was provided, but no content   
was available.                                                                                                                                                                       
Gardiner ended by saying Coe \"must realize if he does not listen\" to the protesters, the protests \"will continue during the games themselves, and the sporting spectacle will be     
overshadowed by the toxic cloud of Dow.\"                                                                                                                                             
Full text attached.                                                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/3 Rail Roko turns violent, protesters injured and arrested; CM Chouhan agreed to compensation data demand; roko cancelled                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The 12/3 Bhopal rail roko protest turned violent with injuries reported among the protesters, police and media persons. Reports vary on how the clash with police began.             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Bhopal activists posted a flurry of emails and message board posts calling for telephone calls to PM Singh's office, the MP Chief Minister's office and the Environment and Forests  
ministry office.                                                                                                                                                                     
Subsequent posts reported MP CM Chouhan \"agreed on all demands of the survivor groups\" and a written statement was said to have been issued from Chouhan's office. As a result of    
Chouhan capitulating, the rail roko was called off. Details of the CM's statement were promised to follow.                                                                           
- An initial ICJB statement posted on its website reported the rail roko turned violent, but it did not mention the Chief Minister capitulating to the demands. That statement       
claimed:                                                                                                                                                                             
\"Police in riot gear with shields and \"lathis\", long heavy clubs, turned out in force and began to attack the survivors, sparing neither the old, women and children.                
\"Phone reports speak of people hit by stones and lathis covered in blood. One person is said to be critical in hospital. Many have been arrested. Bodies are lying on the ground in  
scenes reminiscent of the gas disaster of which today is the 27th anniversary. \" (emphasis added)                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
- A brief update to the post simply stated CM Chouhan agreed to the NGOs demands and to lobby the PM on their behalf.                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/4 ICJB's website was updated with a report on people injured at the rail protest, claiming a teen may lose his hand after being hit by a rubber bullet fired by police. The       
report claimed there were 50,000 at the protest, while media reports had said 15,000. A section said there is \"huge public anger at Dow and Coe\" over the Olympics sponsorship. Full 
text attached.                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The site also posted a new image titled \"Dow's poison is killing London's Olympics as Dow attempts to censor criticism.\" That linked to a post of the 12/2 AP story by Kirka and     
Nessman.                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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Petition: Goal attained, extended to 15,000 signatures                                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Lorraine Close's change.org petition has reached its initial goal of 10,000 signatures and the goal has been raised to 15,000.                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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Parliament motions: 19 supporters of Scottish motion; UK Early Day stalled at 21                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The Scottish Parliament Motion by Joan McAlpine marking the Bhopal gas tragedy anniversary has been signed by 19 supporters: Rob Gibson, Mark McDonald, Dennis Robertson, Humza      
Yousaf, Mike MacKenzie, David Torrance, John Mason, Sandra White, Annabelle Ewing, Adam Ingram, Patrick Harvie, Gil Paterson, Dave Thompson, Kenneth Gibson, Roderick Campbell, Bill 
Kidd, Christina McKelvie, Margaret Burgess, and Linda Fabiani.                                                                                                                       
 - This is the fourth such SPM, with others filed for the 19th, 20th and 22 anniversaries, and one in support of US activist Diane Wilson when she was arrested for trespassing at   
UCC's Seadrift, TX plant. The several motions are attached.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The UK Early Day Motion by Keith Vaz calling for LOCOG to reconsider the Dow sponsorship deal has not gained any new signers and remains at 21.                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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Local media: Midland Daily News, Saginaw News                                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/3 Midland Daily News ran Friday's AP article by Kirka and Nessman, pp1-2. Bottom left of front page, across fold of second page                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/6 Saginaw News reporter Kathryn Lynch-Morin posted an article on the Bhopal activist opposition to Dow's Olympic sponsorship. She tied together media reports on the              
effigy-burning and protest in Bhopal for the anniversary observances, and today's Reuters report on the IOC advising the IOA to talk with the Indian athletes about the sponsorship. 
The article ended with four paragraphs quoting Scot on Dow's Olympic partnership, and Lynch-Morin inviting public input on whether the activists are right to blame Dow, and whether 
a boycott would \"send a message to Dow or hurt Indian sports.\"                                                                                                                       
Seven comments were posted by eaders. The majority of the comments were in Dow's defense, the others, posted by \"greenspleen\" are more sympathetic to the activist viewpoint.        
http://www.mlive.com/business/mid-michigan/index.ssf/2011/12/bhopal_victims_continue_to_pro.html#comments                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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US anniversary actions: ICJB Boston; AID Austin (TX)                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/5 The UT-Austin Daily Texan reported on AID Austin's Bhopal anniversary die-in and campaign opposing Dow's Olympic sponsorship. The group was collecting signatures on a petition 
they hope to use to spur \"current and former UT Olympians\" to make statements opposing the sponsorship.                                                                              
http://www.dailytexanonline.com/news/2011/12/04/aid-austin-seeks-support-removing-dow-chemicals-olympic-sponsorship                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/7 India New England published a report from the ICJB Boston anniversary events of 12/3 titled \"Bhopal Occupies Boston.\"                                                           
About 40 people attended the ICJB presentation by activist Saif Pathan at noon in Dewey Square. The messages reported were - Dow is avoiding responsibility for remediation of       
former UCIL factory site and compensation to gas accident victims, and greenwashing its image with the London 2012 Olympics sponsorship.                                             
Following that event, the group \"marched\" to Copley Square and joined a larger Occupy demonstration, where they displayed Bhopal banners, distributed flyers among the crowd, and    
\"talked to people about the struggle for survivors' rights.\"                                                                                                                         
The Bhopali film screening at MIT had a \"packed audience of about 70 people.\" Following the film, Bhopal resident and activist Sanjay Verma told the audience \"the international     
support for the cause was increasing every year,\" and encouraged people to sign Lorraine Close's petition opposing the Olympic sponsorship.                                          
http://www.indianewengland.com/ME2/dirmod.asp?sid=&nm=&type=Publishing&mod=Publications%3A%3AArticle&mid=8F3A7027421841978F18BE895F87F791&tier=4&id=556EEDBF136748DD915A1C88429E58B7 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/3 PTI, India Today, ToI: UCC affidavit filing; Dow not recognizing India's juridiction over it                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
PTI reported on the UCC affidavit filed with the Indian Supreme Court rebutting the curative petition calling for more compensation to be paid for the Bhopal gas victims. Pickups   
have been seen by Economic Times, Indian Express and DNA.                                                                                                                            
http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_dow-chemicals-opposes-higher-compensation-for-bhopal-gas-victims_1620981                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
India Today also reported on the filing, with a few details of interest. The document is said to include assertions that a large surplus of funds remained with the GoI after the    
gas victims were paid, and that the GoI should return the initial settlement amount to UCC if it reopened the settlement case. Also, the article reported UCC said the GoI needed to 
provided proof of the earning capacity of the gas victims for the purposes of calculating compensation.                                                                              
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/bhopal-gas-tragedy-compensation-union-carbide-vs-government/1/162583.html                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Times of India posted a report on the UCC affidavit filing on the curative petition. It included a few quotes from the document, including that Dow \"has not submittted to the       
jurisdiction of the Supreme Court or any other court in India.\"                                                                                                                      
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Bhopal-gas-tragedy-Wont-submit-to-Supreme-Court-jurisdiction-says-Dow-Chemicals/articleshow/10974484.cms                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/7 Telegraph UK: LOCOG sustainability report favorable to Dow                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
UK Telegraph's Jacquelin Magnay included new sustainability review information in a report on Rogge's direction to the IOA to talk about Dow's sponsorship with the Indian athletes. 
IOA acting president Malhotra said discussion about Dow will be on the agenda for the IOA executive board meeting on Dec. 15 as the issue \"has become a global concern.\"             
Dow's position on Bhopal was given, followed by two paragraphs reporting \"LOCOG sustainability watchdog Shaun McCarthy supported [Dow's] position.\"                                  
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/columnists/jacquelin-magnay/8939596/London-2012-Olympics-Jacques-Rogge-backs-chemical-giant-Dow-over-Bhopal-disaster.html                           
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/8 BBC: Dow committed to Olympic sponsorship                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                     
BBC reported on Dow's stated commitment to remain as a sponsor for the London 2012 Olympic Games. The article included a timeline of events involving Dow  in India and development  
of the London Games.                                                                                                                                                                 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16089139                                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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Olympic Media Summary                                                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Media coverage of the anti-Dow Olympics campaign began slowly, with single reports on activist statements in the Hindu (Chomsky, Gardiner); Guardian's Ecologist blog (L. Close      
petition); Express News (Tamil Nadu politicians Vaiko and Thirumavalavan); and Financial Times (Jowell).                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
GOI/Indian Olympic Association's (IOA) statement  it would communicate with IOC over concerns about Dow's sponsorship received global media attention with reports from AP, AFP,     
Reuters, and Indian wire services IANS, UNI, ANI, IBNS, and PTI.                                                                                                                     
- AP usage was highest in US and Canada (about 50 pickups)                                                                                                                           
- AFP, Reuters were mainly used internationally (about 25 to 35 each)                                                                                                                
- PTI appeared most used in India, while the rest of Indian wires appeared about evenly split                                                                                        
- Int'l Business Times, First Post issued original reports                                                                                                                           
- WSJ India RealTime blog posted Indian wire links twice                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
IOC statement confirming Dow's suitability and counseling IOA to talk with India's athletes received coverage by Reuters, Int'l Business Times, Guardian, PTI, and India's media     
majors. Reuters was used by New York Times, Yahoo! News, some US broadcast outlets, and filtered through international and sports media over two days. Indian media coverage was     
widespread, including numerous PTI pickups, Times of India (TOI), Hindu, Economic Times, SportzPower and the Statesman.                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                     
PTI reported IOA to meet 12/9, 12/17 to discuss \"Dow issues.\" Multiple pickups throughout Indian media.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Print editions of India's major media published articles Sunday through Thursday on these stories, mainly in the Sports sections.                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Commentary appeared from many quarters                                                                                                                                               
- Hindustan Times - editorial said Dow should use sponsorship money to \"clean up poisons\"                                                                                            
- Mid-Day Mumbai - hypocrisy of India protesting Dow Olympic sponsorship while letting the company operate in India                                                                  
- SportzPower - suggested is GOI using stalling tactic on Olympic protests in hopes momentum will slow                                                                               
- TOI - point/counterpoint editorials on Dow sponsorship and Indian boycott; questioning why India did not protest sponsorship in 2010                                               
- Central Chronicle - Rizvi's change.org petition surpassing 750 signatures puts \"significant pressure\" on IOA for 12/15 meeting                                                     
- Sri Lanka Guardian - Dow risking reputation and good will over Olympic sponsorship                                                                                                 
- North West Times (London)- criticized Coe for Dow sponsorship, encouraged readers to email UK Culture commission in protest                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Individual articles reported responses from multiple stakeholders:                                                                                                                   
- Tribune India: ICJB leaders Sarangi, Dhingra, Sarangi called the IOA message to IOC a \"token effort\"; Dhingra promised a \"Bhopal Olympics\"                                         
- Siaset: Aslam Sher Khan called for an Olympic boycott, promised to bring up Dow sponsorship \"in a big way\" at 12/15 IOA meeting                                                    
- Reuters, PTI -  Current top Indian athletes are either against a boycott or noncommittal when asked                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/3 Hindu: Activist coalition, Chomsky statement                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
 - The Hindu published an article about the cross-party activist coalition targeting Dow with quotes from Noam Chomsky 'backing' the campaign against Dow's Olympic sponsorship      
because \"the people of Bhopal have struggled to enforce accountability for one of the worst coporate crimes in history.\"                                                             
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-international/article2682675.ece                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/3 BBC: Video report from BMA/Livingstone press conference at Olympic stadium                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
 BBC posted a video report was from the BMA's press conference held 12/2 outside the Olympic stadium. Activist representatives addressing the press were Lorraine Close, Tim Edwards 
and Farah Edwards. Ken Livingstone was not on camera. The reporter said of the stadium sponsorship, \"it looks like the campaigners aren't going to get their way\" although it does   
present problems for LOCOG. Lorraine Close described in a fairly passionless manner the issues facing the Bhopal gas victims and the rationale for involving Dow in the issues.      
Farah Edwards asserted the gas victims may go on a hunger strike nearer or during the Olympics \"if the wrap stays.\" Close's change.org petition was briefly shown on screen.         
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-16011649                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/3 Guardian Ecologist: Blog promotes L. Close petition                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The UK Guardian's Ecologist blog promoted Lorraine Close's change.org petition to Lord Coe opposing the Dow stadium wrap sponsorship.                                                
http://www.theecologist.org/how_to_make_a_difference/campaigning_the_basics/1154320/petition_to_stop_dow_chemical_partnering_with_2012_london_olympics.html                          
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/4-5 Express, Hindu: Tamil Nadu politicians urge boycott of Games                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Express News Service reported two Tamil Nadu politicians, MDMK leader Vaiko and VCK leader Thol Thirumavalavan, told the media India should boycott the Olympics unless Dow's        
sponsorship is cancelled.                                                                                                                                                            
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/boycott-dowsponsored-london-olympics-vaiko/208474-60-118.html                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The HIndu also reported Vaiko and Tirumavalavan appealing to the IOA and GoI to pressure LOCOG to drop the Dow sponsorship deal.                                                     
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/article2687974.ece                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/5-6 Financial Times, Channel 4: Jowell interviews on opposing Dow Olympics sponsorship                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Financial Times reported on Tessa Jowell's involvement in the campaign opposing Dow's Olympic sponsorship. She said she considers the sponsorship deal \"provocative\" and that she    
would never do anything to \"inflict damage on the Games.\" The article described the opposition campaign as attracting \"little interest in India outside of Bhopal\" and said Jowell   
was not successful in meeting with Indian officials last week to discuss the sponsorship. She denied a conflict of interest exists between her LOCOG board membership and the        
opposition campaign. She said she is \"seeking a 'negotiated solution'\" with two possible solutions - Dow withdraws or \"offers what she called a 'substantial programme of            
mitigation.'\"                                                                                                                                                                        
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b1149dd8-1eb3-11e1-bae4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1fd1TIYz8                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Channel 4 News posted a brief article and video report on India protesting Dow's Olympic sponsorship. The text article contained the basic items about the IOA, LOCOG and Dow        
statements, while the video included an approximately 4-minute interview of Tessa Jowell by Channel 4 news reader Jon Snow. Snow asked if Jowell had \"seen this problem coming,\" to  
which she replied by describing events of her trip to India last week. Jowell was to have spoken at a sports conference which was cancelled, and she thought this was because the    
GoI was afraid she would use that platform to talk about Bhopal and Dow. She said she would not have done so.                                                                        
Jowell said she met with \"a number of people who are concerned, including the senior counsel for the Indian government on the Indian Olympic Association issue and the five NGOs.\"   
Snow prompted her about the original question, and Jowell began to list \"options,\" including that Dow could withdraw since the wrap was only to \"enhance the appearance of the       
stadium for television.\" On further prompting, she admitted she did not know about the sponsorship until September and had \"been pursuing it ever since.\"                            
http://www.channel4.com/news/indian-government-protests-dow-olympic-sponsorship                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/5 Global media: IOA statement on \"concern\" over \"tainted\" company sponsoring Olympics                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
AP, AFP, Reuters, IANS, UNI and IBNS issued wire reports related to the Indian Olympic Association statement about Dow's Olympic sponsorship.                                        
 - AP and UNI reported the IOA would communicate to LOCOG the Bhopal gas victims are \"strongly protesting\" Dow's sponsorship of the stadium wrap. Dow's position on the Bhopal issue 
and the purchase of UCC were given in the second paragraph of the report. IOA said it was not happy that \"tainted\" sponsors were being associated with the Games. IOA acting         
president V K Malhotra said the topic would be addressed at a 12/15 meeting.                                                                                                         
AP http://www.timesunion.com/news/article/Indian-Olympic-group-unhappy-over-Dow-sponsorship-2344972.php                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                     
 - AP had approximately 50 pickups, mostly in US and Canadian local, regional and broadcast outlets, as well as Washington Post, Washington Examiner, SF Examiner and New Orleans    
Times-Picayune websites.                                                                                                                                                             
 - AFP, Reuters and IANs pickups were between two and three dozen each.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Several media outlets posted in-house reports on the IOA's instructions and intent to convey to LOCOG and/or the IOC that the GoI, NGOs and others are \"unhappy\" with Dow's Olympic  
sponsorship. WSJ's IndiaRealTime blog included the Indian Express version of the story at the top of its daily headlines collection. The content was much the same as reported       
above.                                                                                                                                                                               
 - PTI http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-news/NewDelhi/India-to-raise-issue-of-Dow-Olympics-sponsorship/Article1-778111.aspx                                                       
 - International Business Times http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/261171/20111205/2012-london-olympics-india-raise-issue-dow.htm                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                     
 - IANS reported more detail from Malhotra's statement, saying IOA \"[understands] the feelings of the players, government and the NGOs [and] will try to make the games organisers   
aware of the feeling of the people who have suffered in that tragedy. It is not only the Indians who are protesting this sponsorship, there has been an outcry against this world    
over from various NGO's and other bodies. It is no longer a local issue.'\"                                                                                                           
This article said the GoI asked the IOA to address the issue with LOCOG and \"ask them to reconsider their move.\"                                                                     
http://in.news.yahoo.com/ioa-convey-concern-bhopal-victims-london-organisers-124750787.html                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                     
 - AFP Reuters, and IANS went a step further into the GoI/IOA communications, reporting the Sports Ministry asked the IOA to \"raise this matter immediately with the IOC (emphasis   
added) while keeping the [GoI] informed.\"                                                                                                                                            
Sports minister A J Maken wrote to the IOA, \"expressing his concern over the Dow issue that has been vehemently criticized by the Bhopal Gas leak victims and even by several former 
Olympians.\"                                                                                                                                                                          
Reuters http://in.news.yahoo.com/india-raise-issue-dow-olympics-sponsorship-073535293.html (picked up by The Guardian)                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
 - PTI and ANI also provided more coverage of the GoI's instructing the IOA to communicate with Olympics officials about the Dow sponsorship. In a first article, PTI quoted         
extensively from an emailed statement from Dow that, \"misrepresentation of facts is wrong,\" while a second article quoted extensively from Sports minister Maken's statement. He     
called it \"insensitive to the Bhopal gas victims\" for the IOC to move ahead with the sponsorship.                                                                                    
PTI1: http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_misrepresentation-of-facts-is-wrong-dow-chemical_1621872                                                                                  
PTI2: http://www.rediff.com/sports/report/insensitive-bhopal-gas-victims-maken-ioc-dow-chemicals-union-carbide/20111205.htm                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                     
 - ANI reported Sarangi commented favorably about the GoI's move, but said \"much more\" still needed to be done in terms of political consensus to maintain the campaign's momentum.  
http://www.dailyindia.com/show/474535.php                                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/6 India media: IOA concern includes India's future bid for Olympics while Dow stil an IOC partner                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Several Indian media outlets published further reporting on the IOA's statement on Monday to the IOC and LOCOG:                                                                      
 - Telegraph India reported part of the concern over Dow's sponsorship is its position as an IOC partner through the 2020 Games, for which India had planned to bid. It also         
reported the letter to IOA from the Sports ministry was written by Rahul Bhatnagar, a joint secretary at the ministry.                                                               
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1111206/jsp/nation/story_14844874.jsp                                                                                                                  
 - The Hindu and NDTV also reported India would like to bid to host a future Games, and has asked the \"Indian mission in London to get more details from the organizers\" about Dow's 
sponsorship. Hindu noted Liveris is an India-US CEO Forum member, \"but has stayed away from the meetings...due to the sensitivities involved.\"                                       
Hindu http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article2689249.ece                                                                                                                       
 - Times of India and PTI reported Sports Minister A J Maken urged the IOC to \"consider the sentiments\" involving Bhopal and Dow, said he \"won't let Bhopal down,\" and that it       
\"would be embarrassing that on one hand we are asking for extradition of [Warren Anderons] and on the other hand we are partnering with those people.\"                               
ToI http://www.timesnow.tv/Wont-let-Bhopal-down-says-Maken/articleshow/4390681.cms                                                                                                   
- Express News Service, SportzPower, Economic Times and the Statesman also posted reports on the IOA statement.                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/6 Global media: IOC to IOA - \"talk to the athletes\" about Dow sponsorship                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Reuters and a few other media outlets reported IOC president Jacques Rogge \"urged the IOA to talk to its athletes\" about the protests over Dow's Olympic sponsorship. He reiterated  
the IOC's position that Bhopal was a \"horrific catastrophe\" with which India has \"a lot of emotion,\" but Dow \"was not involved in the Bhopal issue.\" He added that every call for    
India to boycott the games \"is a measure that is hurting Indian sport and I am glad to say that there is no intention at the level of the IOA to consider such actions.\"             
This Bhopal content is in the second half of the article, which is titled and initially about soccer (football) global leader Havelange resigning from the IOC.                      
There were approximately two dozen pickups of the story, including the New York Times, Yahoo! Eurosport, South Africa's Sunday Tribune and Independent Online, and a handful of US   
broadcast outlets.                                                                                                                                                                   
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2011/12/06/sports/olympics/sports-us-olympics-rogge.html?_r=1&hp                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
International Business Times also reported on the meeting, with an article specifically on instructing the IOA to talk with the Indian athletes and that boycotting would \"hurt      
Indian sport.\"                                                                                                                                                                       
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/262133/20111206/boycotting-london-olympics-2012-hurt-indian-sport.htm                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/8 Telegraph UK: Two reports from Deighton's presentation at IOC meeting                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The UK Telegraph published two items by Jacqueline Magnay mentioning Dow's sponsorship and Bhopal:                                                                                   
 - The first was a report on the IOC's decision add Ireland to the Olympic torch relay route. This contained a brief mention of Dow as part of LOCOG's presentation to the IOC this  
week.                                                                                                                                                                                
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/olympics/8944065/London-2012-Olympics-torch-relay-to-visit-Ireland.html                                                                             
 - The second reported the IOC heard from LOCOG CEO Paul Deighton to expect opposition to Dow's sponsorship to be ongoing. Ken Livingstone's interest in the issue, the Coe effigy   
burning, IOA being pressured on the topic and today's statement by Indian athlete Gagan Narang are also noted.                                                                       
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/olympics/8944225/London-2012-Olympics-International-Olympic-Committee-braced-for-Dow-protests.html                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/9 UK Telegraph's Olympics diary blog included a summary of Thursday's blog post reporting LOCOG CEO Deighton told the IOC continued protest over Dow's sponsorship is expected.   
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/sport/shart/100022330/london-2012-olympics-diary-mcdonalds-fails-to-get-staff-into-games-spirit/                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/6 Guardian: Dhingra, Gardiner welcomed IOA 'concern'; Commentary article cites BMA's Close                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The UK's Guardian reported both Rachna Dhingra and Barry Gardiner made statements about the IOA's message to the IOC. Dhingra said the NGOs asked for that action six months ago,    
and \"welcome it, but it needs to go further.\" Gardiner said the GoI and IOA \"have done the right thing by standing up to Dow's involvement.... LOCOG must realize that this issue    
will not go away, and the longer they leave the decision to kick out Dow the larger the protests will grow.\"                                                                         
No online article, full text available on request.                                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The Guardian also published a commentary by Richard Williams criticizing the stadium wrap, Dow's sponsorship and quoting BMA activist Lorraine Close in describing contaminated      
water and surroundings in Bhopal. Readers are encouraged to sign Close's change.org petition asking Lord Coe to drop Dow's sponsorship.                                              
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2011/dec/05/london-olympics-dow-bhopal-legacy?newsfeed=true                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/6 Tribune India: Sarangi - IOA, GoI communications \"token efforts\"                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Tribune India posted a lengthy article on the IOA's communication to IOC. Sarangi is cited, saying government effort is a \"token exchange of words and gestures\" and the GoI \"should 
categorically state that it will make no compromise on the matter of a corporation which is responsible for the poisoning and death of thousands of people.\"                         
The article ends with a section labeled \"The Dow Story,\" relating that UCC was an early investor in India, UCIL ownership of the Bhopal facility, and \"After the accident, UCC       
downplayed damages and diverted attention and liability on the local company to escape criminal and civil liability. Later, it absolved itself completely of all responsibility by   
merging with the $9.3-billion Dow Chemical, one of the world's largest chemical companies.\"                                                                                          
http://www.tribuneindia.com/2011/20111206/main7.htm                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/6 Siaset: Aslam Sher Khan press event: wrote letter to S Gandhi, offered support to UK MPs                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
India's Siaset Daily posted a lengthy article by Pervez Bari about Aslam Sher Khan making statements to the press about writing to Sonia Gandhi, Barry Gardiner, Keith Vaz and Tessa 
Jowell about the Dow sponsorship. The letter to Gandhi, which was copied to \"all the members of the Congress Working Committee,\" called for IOA to make a formal protest to LOCOG.   
To the British MPs, Sher Khan offered his support and had a reply from Vaz. He called for Indian MPs to \"take up the issue,\" as have the UK MPs, and claimed he would \"not hesitate  
to don the (anti-corruption) role of Anna Hazare in getting proper justice to the victims and survivors..\" He also said he will bring up the Bhopal issue \"in a big way at the       
former Olympians meeting\" as part of the 12/15 IOA meeting.                                                                                                                          
 - PTI, ToI and UNI also reported more briefly from Sher Khan's press event.                                                                                                         
http://www.siasat.com/english/news/ex-olympian-aslam-sher-writes-sonia-dow-chemical-sponsorship-london-olympics                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/7 PTI, SportzPower: IOA to meet, discuss Dow sponsorship issues 12/9, 12/15                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                     
PTI reported the IOA will meet on 12/9  to discuss the issues regarding Dow's Olympic sponsorship, according to IOA vice-president Tarlochan Singh. The article also noted the       
executive board and general body meeting will take place December 15, as widely reported. Tarlochan said, \"The matter has to be thoroughly discussed, we can't take a decision on    
our own. The sentiments of the people of Bhopal are also important.\" The article was picked up by multiple India outlets, including Economic Times, Times of India, IBNLive, India   
Today and Zee News.                                                                                                                                                                  
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/et-cetera/ioa-calls-meeting-to-discuss-dow-olympic-sponsorship-row/articleshow/11019537.cms                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
SportzPower confirmed the 12/9 meeting reported by PTI . SportzPower said the IOA \"has gone on a back foot\" as its secretary general Raja Randhir Singh is in Switzerland meeting    
with the IOC, and acting president V K Malhotra \"remaining silent,\" so vice president Tarlochan Singh has apparently taken the lead on the \"crisis.\" The article described the       
week's developments from Indian agencies and the IOC, and ended with \"Last learnt, the IOA will stick to its position on Indian participating in London Games, but the athletes in   
the committee, many of whom are from Bhopal, will not accept that.\"                                                                                                                  
http://www.sportzpower.com/?q=content/ioa-pushing-participating-london-games-athletes-commoners-oppose                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/9 Guardian blog: Recap of Olympics news included London borough politcs involving anti-Dow campaign                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
A Guardian blog post by Dave Hill recapped the GoI/IOA communication to IOC, and its response. He referred back to the 12/2 activist coalition press conference at the Olympic       
stadium and noted BMA said Dow is \"shifting\" responsibility for Bhopal to the Indian governments. Hill also quoted Ken Livingstone from the press conference saying if he is elected 
Mayor of London next May, \"he would be 'looking for a legal challenge to try and drop Dow Chemical' and in the meantime would be 'writing personally to Seb Coe to say I think this  
is a catastrophic error and it isn't going to go away.'\"                                                                                                                             
Hill mentioned the Newham council's support of the anti-Dow campaign, and that Tower Hamlets mayor Lutfur Rahman is also in favor of the campaign.  He referred readers to Ted       
Jeory's latest blog post about Rahman's support.                                                                                                                                     
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/davehillblog/2011/dec/08/dow-olympic-stadium-wrap-cross-party-opposition                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/8 Reuters, PTI: Indian athletes let Dow find \"redemption\" via Olympic sponsorship; will follow GoI lead on Dow issue                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Reuters reported India's first athlete to qualify for the London Olympics, marksman Gagan Narang, said Dow's Olympics sponsorship is an opportunity for the company to gain          
\"redemption\" and should be allowed. He agreed with IOC president Rogge that a boycott would only hurt the Indian athletes, and stated the athletes are to go to the Games as         
ambassadors for their country.                                                                                                                                                       
Pickups were not extensive, mainly Reuters and Yahoo! outlets.                                                                                                                       
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/08/olympics-india-boycott-idUSL3E7N83LW20111208                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
PTI reported Indian tennis player Sania Mirza said she would follow the government's instructions on the issue of a boycott: \"As athletes we will go with what the country decides.\" 
Multiple pickups                                                                                                                                                                     
http://sports.in.msn.com/tennis/article.aspx?cp-documentid=5648177                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The UK Press Association posted a report on UK female cyclist Emma Pooley on her involvement in an Afghan human rights campaign. She was asked about \"the controversy surrounding    
Dow Chemical Company's involvement with London's showpiece Olympic stadium,\" and answered \"generally\" about \"almost all\" large multinational companies having \"a breach of ethics    
somewhere.\" The article then gave a description of the controversy issues. The piece was reposted on the Financial Mail's Women's Forum.                                             
http://www.fmwf.com/features/2011/12/olympic-athlete-calls-for-womens-rights-in-afghanistan/                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/8 Indian Express: ICJB to hold \"Bhopal Olympics\"                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Indian Express reported Rachna Dhingra stated the ICJB would do everything it could to hold a \"Bhopal Olympics\" with children from Bhopal, Vietnam, Nicaragua \"and other countries.\" 
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/Bhopal-may-defy-IOC-with-own--Olympics-/885241/                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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Commentaries/editorials: Mid-Day Mumbai, Times of India, Bhopal Chronicle; Sri Lanka, UK media                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/4 Deccan Herald has posted an editorial titled \"Dow's stink,\" calling LOCOG's sponsorship award \"insenstive and in poor taste.\" A boycott by India is considered an option, but   
unfair to Indian athletes.                                                                                                                                                           
http://www.deccanherald.com/content/209367/dows-stink.html                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/7 Mid-Day Mumbai published a strong commentary by Ranjona Banerji on the GoI and Indian public's \"hypocrisy\" over the Bhopal gas tragedy. Banerji asked why Dow's Olympic         
sponsorship is \"so unbearable\" when Dow's presence in India is not, and cites the Jaipur foot camps and Habitat for Humanity. Banerji blamed the government and \"unconvincing\"       
politicians for not doing enough for the gas victims, and asked successive questions about why the victims have not received enough compensation, who is responsible for it, and     
suggested using \"bribes saved after Lokpal Bill is passed to fund the needed compensation.\" The column concluded the campaign to cancel Dow's Olympic sponsorship \"looks like one    
more way to create a lot of hot air amounting to precisely nothing substantial for the people of Bhopal.\"                                                                            
http://www.mid-day.com/news/2011/dec/071211-opinion-The-hypocrisy-of-the-Bhopal-tragedy.htm                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/7 Indian sports media SportzPower reported it has accessed the note from India's Ministry of External Affairs to the PM's Office regarding Dow's Olympic sponsorship and posted   
some excerpts.                                                                                                                                                                       
The report began with Rogge's statement to the IOA about talking with its athletes and acknowledging the emotional sensitivity of the Bhopal issue. SportzPower pragmatically noted  
\"Rogge's line of argument is only to be expected.\"                                                                                                                                   
The note excerpts were that Coe told the Indian mission in London he and LOCOG are satisfied with the Dow sponsorship decision \"and offered to make a presentation for the Mission   
on the issue. The Mayor of London has indicated he would like to know our thinking in this matter, give the importance of the relations between India and the United Kingdom.\"       
The note indicated the Mission was directed to \"seek presentation from [LOCOG] and share the presentation with the Ministry of Youth Affairs and Sports.\"                            
SportzPower concluded the GoI was \"going through the proper channels\" but LOCOG's response was predictable, and asked if the GoI's actions were \"showing serious intent when the     
real intention is to buy time under the expectation that the protests will lose momentum over the coming months? More than likely.\"                                                  
http://www.sportzpower.com/?q=content/rogge-asks-ioa-settle-dow-row-indian-athletes-govt                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/7 Times of India published two editorial pieces with opposing viewpoints on the Olympic sponsorship issue.                                                                        
 - One called the sponsorship and the IOC's support of it morally offensive and in violation of the Olympic spirit.                                                                  
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/opinion/edit-page/Cannot-evade-moral-issues/articleshow/11022713.cms                                                                         
 - The other said talk of an Indian boycott \"is going a step too far\" and questioned whether it was \"truly advisable to hold sport ransom to a political and legal issue in this     
manner?\" Examples of winning Olympic performances in unlikely circumstances given included Jesse Owens' four gold medals in Nazi Berlin.                                             
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/opinion/edit-page/Sport-should-transcend-politics/articleshow/11022747.cms                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                     
A Times of India sports column writer found it \"curious\" the IOA had not objected to Dow's IOC partnership when it was announced in 2010. The inevitability of Dow working with all  
the National Olympic Committees before and during the London Games was \"of critical importance to India,\" and \"under such a scenario, India may even ask the IOC to reconsider its   
deal with Dow.\" The piece covered the Sports ministry's letter to the IOA about communicating with the IOC on the matter, and the IOC's response. The article ended by mentioning    
Lord Coe's assurance Dow \"was not involved in the gas disaster in Bhopal,\" and that he \"pooh-poohed\" the possibility of an Indian boycott.                                           
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/events-tournaments/london-olympics/Govt-asks-IOA-to-take-up-Dow-issue-with-IOC/articleshow/10998872.cms                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Bhopal Central Chronicle reported on the \"other\" change.org petition that was addressed to the IOA and intended for athletes to sign. The item has gathered 900 signatures of 1,000  
targeted. The Chronicle reporter claimed the petition surpassing 750 signatures made it a significant pressure on the IOA going into the Dec. 15 meeting.                            
http://www.centralchronicle.com/ioa-faces-new-pressure-to-boycott-dow-olympic-2012.html                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Sri Lanka Guardian posted a commentary about Dow risking its reputation and good will over the Olympics sponsorship. This included a description of DAS India being blacklisted.     
http://www.srilankaguardian.org/2011/12/dow-chemical-now-facing-image-issues-in.html                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
UK local media North West Times published a lengthy letter to the editor criticizing Lord Coe for the Dow sponsorship and claiming it would result in \"big protests and disrupt the  
Games,\" with the possibility of \"bringing Wembley and other venues to a standstill.\" The letter encouraged readers to email the Culture, Media and Sport commission \"asking for the  
decision to be reversed,\" and to sign Lorraine Close's change.org petition. No name was provided, full text is available on request.                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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Bhopal Anniversary Media Summary                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/2 BBC and Reuters reported on the Bhopal anniversary protests and effigy burnings held Friday. Limited pickup of the Reuters story.                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/3 The ICJB's rail roko protest and resulting violence drew global coverage led by AP and AFP. AP issued an update to its original wire story, with more than 100 combined         
pickups; the AFP piece received about two dozen pickups.                                                                                                                             
Indian media reported heavily on the events, sending successive posts from the scene as the news developed. PTI, IBNS, UNI, Pioneer, DNA and broadcast news covered the event. PTI   
and Pioneer were most prolific in filing reports, and PTI was widely picked up by Indian and Asian media outlets.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/4 AP issued a follow-up report from Bhopal with reactions from activists and public figures. Fewer than 50 pickups were seen, spread across international outlets and a handful   
in the US, mainly broadcast outlets.                                                                                                                                                 
Indian media majors published in-house reporting on the violence aftermath, including the Hindu, Hindustan Times, Times of India, Daily News & Analysis (DNA) and Asian Age.         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/5-7 A variety of Indian media reported NGOs, public figures and agencies either called for or announced enquiry panels to investigate the rail roko violence.                     
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/3 Global media: Bhopal anniversary effigy burnings and protests                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Reuters issued an article on the campaign against Dow's Olympics sponsorship, the proposed boycott by Indian athletes, Malhotra's statement the IOA would not entertain a boycott    
vote, MP CM Chouhan's letter to India's Sports Minister, and the gas NGOs demands for more compensation.                                                                             
Few pickups.                                                                                                                                                                         
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/260538/20111202/dow-chemical-s-sponsorship-london-olympics-angers.htm                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
BBC posted a report on the protest and burning of effigies of Lord Coe and IOA president Malhotra, the gas NGOs demands for more compensation, and Dow's response to criticism of    
its sponsoring the Olympic stadium wrap.                                                                                                                                             
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-16001266                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/3 Global media: Rail roko violence                                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Associated Press initially reported on the rail roko and the resulting violence. About 15,000 people were reported to have participated. Reporter Rafiq Maqbool cited ICJB's Rachna  
Dhingra saying the police \"charged the protesters with sticks\" (called 'lathi') and at least three people were hospitalized with injuries. Maqbool reported the protesters threw     
stones at the police and that several police vehicles were burned or damaged. He also cited Dhingra saying \"the government has undermined the [Bhopal gas] victims\" over             
compensation for the 1984 accident. The NGOs demand for $8.1 billion from Dow is mentioned, as well as the GoI's bid for $1.7 billion from Dow. Dow's position on the Bhopal issue   
is included briefly.                                                                                                                                                                 
An updated version of this article reported CM Chouhan agreed to \"back thier campaign and lobby the Prime Minister for his support\" and the rail roko was subsequently cancelled.    
Numerous US and international pickups, including the Wall Street Journal website, Washington Post, San Francisco Chronicle, Business Week and NPR websites.                          
http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_27th-anniversary-of-the-bhopal-gas-disaster-turns-violent_1620727                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Agence France Press reported Dhingra said the protest was \"peaceful agitation but the police used force against us in a bid to silence us.\" An MP official said the police \"were     
acting under a law prohibiting unlawful assembly.\"  Chouhan's call for India to boycottt the Olympics was included, as was a brief version of Dow's position statement on the Bhopal 
liabilities. Multiple pickups.                                                                                                                                                       
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hkyhWDqQ1mBqA8dlL7UHvQbxtgMw?docId=CNG.794d1157fe2364fc0e0dcd6a77edbd08.131                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                     
India Blooms News Service posted two items on the police response to the protest, quoting an activist saying shots may have been fired.                                              
http://www.indiablooms.com/NewsDetailsPage/2011/newsDetails031211g.php                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
PTI reported Abdul Jabbar condemned the violence and called for the release of those who had been arrested.                                                                          
http://expressbuzz.com/nation/bhopal-gas-tragedy-violence-marks-anniversary/339807.html                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                     
UNI reported CM Chouhan said there will be in an inquiry into the day's violence.                                                                                                    
http://news.webindia123.com/news/Articles/India/20111203/1884050.html                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Pioneer posted several reports describing the events of the day, including:                                                                                                          
- Stone-throwers were \"youth\" taking cover in the \"maze of bylanes\" opening on to the area where the rail roko was held. It includes a listing of the ten people who were reported   
as hospitalized after the protest - seven were police or media.                                                                                                                      
http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25174-maze-of-bylanes-gave-stone-pelters-the-edge.html                                                                                 
 - Congress party leaders \"slammed\" the MP govt and police for the violence at the rail roko.                                                                                        
http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25176-bhuria-singh-slams-mp-govt-for-police-action-on-survivors.html                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/4 AP: Rail roko violence aftermath                                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The AP issued a follow-up story by Rafiq Mabool reporting on the rail roko and the protesters' clash with police. Rachna Dhingra was cited as describing the confrontation, and      
decrying the government's \"betrayal [and] undermininng the victims.\" CM Chouhan's promise to support the gas NGO demands to PM Singh and the subsequent cancellation of the rail     
roko were mentioned. The previously-used content about the NGOs demanding $8.1 billion more in compensation from Dow was included, as was Dow's position on the Bhopal settlement.   
 The article endsed with the NGOs, \"a few officials\" and the 21 former Olympians opposing Dow's Olympic sponsorship.                                                                 
Several pickups in US regional media outlets and international media, primarily in Pakistan.                                                                                         
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2011/dec/04/gas-leak-survivors-protest-settlement/                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/4 TwoCircles: Rail roko protest overview; 1/3/12 deadline for MP to submit \"correct\" data to SC                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                     
TwoCircles.net Muslim Indian media posted a long and detailed review of Saturday's protest, mashing together multiple media reports. While the writing gets unclear in a few places, 
it is a good overview of the entire event and has a few items not seen elsewhere                                                                                                     
 - NGO leader Balkrishna Namdeo said the groups have set a deadline of Jan. 3 for CM Chouhan to submit \"correct figures before the Supreme Court or else the survivors would again   
stop trains.\"                                                                                                                                                                        
 - Chouhan told the activists they can have representatives there when he meets with PM Singh, and that a special court for the gas victims cases \"will be considered.\" He also      
promised a \"team of experts\" would assess damage to \"population and environment due to gas leak\" and compensation demands would be based on the findings.                            
http://twocircles.net/2011dec04/bopal_gas_tragedy_police_beats_survivors_train_blockade.html                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/5 PTI, DNA: 15 Rail roko arrests include gas NGO leader Balkrishna Namdeo                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The aftermath of Saturday's rail roko reported about 15 arrests were made.                                                                                                           
 -PTI reported \"around 70\" people were identified from videos as being involved in the stone throwing and will apparently be pursued and charged. Gas NGO leader Balkrishna Namdeo   
is being targeted by police as \"identified on video.\"                                                                                                                                
http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_violence-on-bhopal-gas-tragedy-anniversary-15-arrested_1621669                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
 - DNA reported \"500\" unidentified persons have had charges registered by police for arson and stone throwing at the protest.                                                        
http://daily.bhaskar.com/article/MP-BHO-bhopal-gas-tragedy-cases-against-500-people-for-arson-2616125.html                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/6 Pioneer: State responsible for rail violence                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Pioneer reported Congress Party Member of Parliament (Ujjain) Premchand Guddu filed a memorandum with the MP government saying the state is \"responsible for all that happened on    
Saturday.\" He said the police and state officials had plenty of prior notice the rail roko was planned.                                                                              
http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25749-cong-mp-demands-high-level-probe-into-rail-roko-incident.html                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/6-8 India media: MP, ICJB, MP HRC to hold enquiries into violence                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
IBNS reported the ICJB issued a press statement condemning the violence at the rail roko and stating they will perform their own enquiry into the matter, \"presided over by a        
retired judge of the High Court or Supreme Court.\" They have called again for the release of all 14 men still in police custody and said they will help survivors \"gather evidence   
and initiate formal proceedings against those responsible for the violence, including the police.\" The NGOs apologized to the media people who were injured. The article was not     
available for online access, full text available on request.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Several media items reported on press statements issued Tuesday about the rail roko violence in Bhopal.                                                                              
 - UNI, DNA, The Pioneer, Indian Express and Ummid reported on the ICJB press conference, citing Sarangi and Rashida Bee on claims the police initiated the confrontation, their     
intent to hold an independent inquiry, and calls for individuals to bring evidence from the incident. Sarangi said of gas NGO leader Balkrishna Namdeo, if they had evidence to      
substantiate the charges against him, the group \"will ourselves walk him to the jail.\"                                                                                               
Ummid's report, by Pervez Bari, included content on the ICJB apologizing to the media persons who were injured or lost equipment and vehicles during the melee, and a listing of     
women attending the press conference who had been injured. These include Hazra Bee, Bano Bee, and \"Ms Rafat\" [of Children Against Dow-Carbide].                                      
UNI: http://www.ummid.com/news/2011/December/07.12.2011/bhopal_gas_victims_on_police.htm                                                                                             
Pioneer: http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25987-gas-victim-organisations-blame-police-admin-for-violence-on-anniversary-day.html                                    
Ummid: http://www.ummid.com/news/2011/December/07.12.2011/bhopal_gas_victims_on_police.htm                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                     
- PTI reported separately on state Congress party members president Kantilal Burhia and MP Preme Chand Guddu making statements about the police response to the rail roko. Burhia    
\"strongly condemned\" the police force, while Guddu sent a memo to the MP governor demanding a \"high level inquiry into the police action.\"  The memo explained the local law         
enforcement were forewarned of the protest and did not take precautionary measures.                                                                                                  
http://zeenews.india.com/news/madhya-pradesh/bhuria-condemns-police-action-on-gas-victims_745594.html                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
CNN-IBN reported the Madhya Pradesh Human Rights Commission criticized the MP government for the \"police brutality on protesting Bhopal gas victims\" and asked to be given a         
detailed report on the violence.                                                                                                                                                     
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/hrc-pulls-up-mp-govt-for-lathicharge-on-gas-victims/209115-3.html                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/6 Pioneer: Jabbar - ICJB partly responsible for rail violence                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The Pioneer reported Abdul Jabbar and the BGPMUS said the ICJB NGOs are partly responsible for Saturday's violence. He criticized the state government for not fulfilling projects   
and programs it promised to the gas victims.                                                                                                                                         
http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25751-organisations-divided-over-rail-roko-incident.html                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/9 ANI: Bhopal protest of police for rail roko violence calls for Chouhan to resign, threatens to 'ransack' his residence                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                     
ANI reported a protest was held in Bhopal by gas victims \"against police personnel\" for the rail roko violence. However, the group demonstrating is not reported to be associated    
with any of the gas NGOs. The protest was \"supported by\" the Congress party, and the group called for CM Chouhan's resignation. A spokesman also \"warned the state government of a   
similar backlash and threatened Chief Minister Chauhan with ransacking his house.\"                                                                                                   
http://www.newstrackindia.com/newsdetails/253966                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/8 ToI: Bhopal residents complain of police harassment on questioning over rail roko                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Times of India reported Bhopal residents of the Jehangirabad and Aishbagh locales are complaining of being harassed by police and questioned about the rail roko violence on Dec. 3. 
The Communist Party of India (Marxist) may hold a demonstration to protest the \"alleged police excesses\" on Dec. 3.                                                                  
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bhopal/Cops-harassing-us-for-Dec-3-protests/articleshow/11031304.cms                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/7 PTI: Abdul Jabbar wants special courts for gas victims, MP to submit 'correct' data to SC                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                     
PTI reported BGPMUS convenor Abdul Jabbar again called for CM Chouhan to \"take a clear stand on the death toll and injuries\" data from the 1984 gas accident. Jabbar said Chouhan's  
letter to PM Singh is \"not enough\" and the state does not need any special dispensation to establish a special court to hear gas victims' cases.                                     
http://ibnlive.in.com/generalnewsfeed/news/come-clear-on-death-injury-figures-in-gas-tragedy-jabbar/922548.html                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/9 DNA: Chouhan calls for Rs 10 lakh in compensation for 10,000 more gas victims                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                     
DNA reported CM Chouhan has asked the GoI to pay Rs 10 lakhs to the families of another 10,047 persons whose deaths were attributable to the 1984 gas accident.                      
http://daily.bhaskar.com/article/MP-BHO-bhopal-gas-tragedy-cm-asks-for-rs-10-lakh-each-for-the-victims-2626677.html                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/4 Express on Sunday: Chingari Trust                                                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Express on Sunday Whitehall editor Ted Jeory reported from Bhopal on the Chingari Trust and juxtaposing its services and needs to the money being spent by Dow on the Olympic        
stadium wrap. Jeory included quotes from both Rashida Bee and Champi Devi Shukla, who deemed Dow \"'our enemy' because 'they should show some morality, clean the waste and take it   
back to America.'\"                                                                                                                                                                   
He said the BMA and other campaigners are \"glad of the renewed global attention brought by Lord Coe's decision to give Dow a clean bill of health,\" because the campaign against Dow 
had been \"losing momentum.\"                                                                                                                                                          
This piece has content that is may have been sourced from an InterPress Service piece dated Friday, which is available on request.                                                   
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/287679/-Bhopal-tragedy-was-like-a-dance-of-death-                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/5 Pioneer: Chingari Trust awards                                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Chingari Trust announced its annual Women Against Corporate Crime award, which went to \"two courageous women of the Lok Samiti in Mehndiganj near Varanasii.e. Urmila Vishwakarma    
and Urmila Patel. They are recognized for their fight against a multinational goliath i.e. Coca Cola along with the local Pollution Control Board, Ground Water Authority and Uttar  
Pradesh State Government swinging between the local vote-bank and a huge MNCs persuasive power.\"                                                                                     
http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25731-chingari-award-for-women-against-corporate-crime-distributed.html                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/8 Common Dreams: PANNA announced results of People's Tribunal - \"Big 6\" agrichem firms \"guilty\" of human rights violations                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
PANNA issued a press release announcing Permanent People's Tribunal found the \"Big 6\" agrichemical companies \"guilty\" of human rights violations. PANNA co-director Kathryn Gilje    
described the event, and the press piece listed several of the individuals who testified and each ones' topic.                                                                       
http://www.commondreams.org/newswire/2011/12/07-17                                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The Hindu had published two items on the PAN Permanent People's Tribunal while it was in session on Bangalore. Dow's primary connection to the PPT is the Bhopal issue.              
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-karnataka/article2685948.ece                                                                                                     
- Endosulfan victims were the first to testify at the PPT.                                                                                                                           
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/article2687912.ece                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/4 BhopalNow website: first posting promotes Sambhavna, Chingari facilities                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Photojournalist Jack Laurenson announced a new website he calls BhopalNow to  aid the campaigns for the gas victims. The exact purpose of the site was not clear, other than he said 
he could not let Bhopal be simply another article he produced.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/6  Laurenson posted the first item on BhopalNow.org. The post is a \"comment piece\" by him and Lorraine Close, describing the Sambhavna Clnic and the Chingari Therapy Centre, the 
activist perception of Bhopal and Dow, and encouraging readers to sign Close's change.org petition addressed to Lord Coe. Full text attached.                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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12/6 Force Change petition addressed to Liveris to \"assume corporate responsibility\" and clean up Bhopal                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
A new petition about Bhopal is addressed to Andrew Liveris and calls for him/Dow to \"assume corporate responsibility for [and] clean up Bhopal, India's environment.\" The item is    
posted a site called Force Change and does not appear likely to attract attention. The poster is a UC-Berkeley graduate named Emmeline Sun. There is no clear connection to ICJB or  
AID activists, she has posted five petitions on topics ranging from affirmative action to \"police brutality against 'occupy' protesters.\"                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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Bhopali film: Invitations to screenings; review; interview with Verma and Carlson                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/5 An email update was sent about the Bhopali film, announcing its availability online, with half of proceeds supporting \"Bhopal.org\" (the BMA), and listing the three screenings  
from 12/3 to 12/10 in Boston and NYC.                                                                                                                                                
 - A fellow filmmaker, Chris Portal, posted a review of the film on his blog. He attended the MIT screening on 12/2 and recommended the film. He noted IndiePix said it would have a 
theatrical release that has not happened yet.                                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/9 Film blog MoviePass posted interviews with ICJB activist Sanjay Verma and Bhopali film maker Max Carlson prior to the documentary screening at the IndieScreen Theatre in       
Brooklyn on Thursday evening.                                                                                                                                                        
 - Verma described his gradual involvement with the activist campaign, stepping in where his brother Sunil had left off in the campaign, and encouraged viewers to \"tell other       
people about Bhopal.\"                                                                                                                                                                
 - Carlson referred to Verma as a \"big inspiration\" in producing the documentary.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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Ted Jeory blog: Bhopal visit during anniversary events; Newham mayor supports anti-Dow campaign                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Express on Sunday Whitehall editor Ted Jeory updated his blog with two posts from his weekend in Bhopal.                                                                             
 - The first chronicles his personal experiences there, including time with UK MP Navin Shah,  Sarangi and Dhingra, and Abdul Jabbar. He also visited the Chingari Rehabilitation    
Center and attended the protests on Friday and Saturday. Multiple photos adorn the post.                                                                                             
He wrote that Coe should visit Bhopal \"and try to understand the anger first hand,\" and labeled Dow, Coe, Rogge and Hughes all \"morally deficient\" for their stance on the Bhopal    
issue.                                                                                                                                                                               
One item of interest - he said Sarangi had spent a large part of the weekend disguised \"to avoid the police.\"                                                                        
 - The second post is mainly his article from Sunday's Express about the work of the Chingari Trust.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/8 Ted Jeory's blog reposted Rahman's own blog post stating his position against Dow's sponsorship and the text of his letter to Lord Coe. Jeory and Rahman called for several     
other politicians to sign on to the letter, one of whom has done so. Those invited to sign were Josh Peck (Labour), Peter Golds (Conservative), Stephanie Eaton (Lib Dem - signed),  
and Fozol Miah (Respect).                                                                                                                                                            
Rahman wrote that he had the Dow issue on his council meeting agenda but ran out of time to address it.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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BMA website updates: Bhopali interview; Environmentalist article; Anniversary event reports                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The BMA website has several updates:                                                                                                                                                 
 - The Carlson section of the MoviePass blog post reported above                                                                                                                     
 - The full text of Environmentalist journal article \"Bhopal's Never Ending Disaster\" by Richard Ansell and Andrew Tinsley. The piece was published in October but not available in  
full at that time. The lengthy article reviews Bhopal's \"first' and \"second\" disasters, and the legal proceedings. The journal report ends with suggesting an \"alternative approach\" 
for site remediation \"independent of the court actions\": A full site investigation backed by the EU consisting of double-blind sampling by labs in India and Europe, desk studies by 
EU consultancies and \"eventual site clean-up work.\" An addendum has a personal report by Tinsley from an April 2011 visit to Bhopal and the former UCIL factory site. Full text      
available on request.                                                                                                                                                                
 - A report from \"Nagendra in Sambhavna\" on the 12/2-3 anniversary events in Bhopal. The post includes two local press clippings with photos from the Friday rally.                  
 - An updated post on the Scottish Friends of Bhopal memorial event and plaque dedication at Greyfriars Kirk.                                                                        
 - An anniversary poem by BMA member Jade De Vries.                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
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Blogs: Current.com; Toxics Watch; Hadida; sports blogs; UK Progressive; New Internationalist                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Current.com, the same venue that hosts Granholm's new TV program, has a post from \"JanforGore,\" titled \"Drop Dow as a partner for London 2012 olympic games.\" It has a link to       
Lorraine Close's change.org petition, a brief explanation of the activist rationale and three comments, also posted by JanforGore, with further media items on the Bhopal issue.     
JanforGore is Janet Moore, a water issues activist who has posted several times on Current.com posts Granholm's program, usually mentioning dioxin.                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                     
India's Toxics Watch Alliance blogger Gopal Krishna has added nine posts of Bhopal-related items since Friday, including:                                                            
 - The 12/6 Hindu article he retitled \"Dowlympics\"                                                                                                                                   
 - A letter he wrote to the Governor of Madhya Pradesh calling for a Truth Commission about the rail roko violence and use of the \"correct\" death and injury figures for the         
curative petition                                                                                                                                                                    
- India's Sports Ministry instructions to IOA on communicating the \"concern\" over Dow's sponsorship                                                                                  
- Protest on \"Bhopal Day\" against the Jaitapur Nuclear Project                                                                                                                       
- A theory that the release of Warren Anderson in 1984 and Adil Shahryar from US custody in 1985 were linked                                                                         
- Times of India article reporting on UCC Supreme Court filing regarding compensation already paid and Dow not being subject to SC jurisdiction                                      
- The rail roko violence                                                                                                                                                             
- A panel discussion in Pune on the Bhopal accident anniversary, about India's nuclear safety regulation and civil liability legislation                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/7 Sports blog Insidethegames posted a column by Independent on Sunday reporter Alan Hubbard, who criticized the increase in cost for the London Games opening ceremony. In        
exploring alternative uses for -L-40 million, he suggested using \"some of it to do the decent thing and pay for the  controversial 'wrap' shroud for the stadium and hand Dow        
Chemical back their -L-7 million ($11 million/?8 million), thus appeasing those both here and in India angered by what is considered an insult to the victims of the Bhopal          
disaster.\"                                                                                                                                                                           
http://www.insidethegames.biz/blogs/15107                                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/7 Insidethegames posted a report by Duncan Mackay about Rogge's reply to the IOA and statement in support of Dow's partnership.                                                   
http://www.insidethegames.biz/olympics/summer-olympics/2012/sponsors/15103-rogge-backs-dow-chemical-over-olympic-sponsorship                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/8 A blog titled \"UK Progressive\" posted an article criticizing Dow and the Olympic sponsorship as incongruent in terms of Dow's history. Author Theodora Filis also listed        
several questions pertaining to the Indian curative petitions regarding the criminal charges, environmental contamination and remediation, and Dow's \"lack of sustainable efforts in 
India, and the rest of the world.\"                                                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/9 UK alternative media New Internationalist has a blog post by an Alan Hughes promoting the campaign against Dow's Olympic sponsorship. The piece begins with a description of    
the 1984 accident, the compensation discrepancies, MP CM Chouhan's recent support of the gas NGOs demands, and the IOA/IOC/LOCOG statements regarding the Games, Dow's sponsorship   
and discussion of an Indian boycott.                                                                                                                                                 
Hughes wrote of Dow: \"this is not the first time Dow Chemicals has been accused of playing dirty games,\" referring to napalm production and \"leaking poisonous plutonium in the US,  
for which they were sued,\" and \"multiple sites in the US\" he said are \"harmful and.dangerous owing to [Dow's] irresponsible activities.\"                                             
The recent Bhopal anniversary events in India were described as \"successful.\"                                                                                                        
Readers are asked to sign Lorraine Close's change.org petition. Full text available on request.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                   Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Message boards: Nayaran - ICJB action calls during rail violence; Games Monitor posts                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                     
12/5 ICJB activist Shweta Nayaran emailed to several related activist distribution lists a call for action to contact the MP Chief Minister's office with two demands:               
 - Set up of a \"Truth Commission with participation of survivor's organizations\" to investigate the violence at Saturday's rail roko.                                                
 - Immediate release of \"all detainees and suspension of all legal action\" pending a report from the above-mentioned commission.                                                     
Nayaran's email alleges the violence was \"triggered by the police,\" photos show police \"pelting stones,\" and the police are targeting Muslim youth from gas-affecte families as a    
means of \"settling religious scores.\" Some of the youth are reported to have been stripped and \"tortured in at least two police stations in Bhopal.\"                                 
The email also reported NGO leader Balkrishna Namdeo \"has been charged with murderous assault punishable by ten years of rigorous imprisonment.\"                                     
Full text available on request.                                                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
The London Games Monitor message board posted multiple media items on the Dow sponsorship topic through the week. A listing of the posts is available on request.                    
                                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                   Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Social media: Farah Edwards driving BMA social media                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Farah Edwards Khan appears to be a main driver of the BMA social media campaign, as she posted about 160 tweets in the first four days of December. The topics vary from requesting  
others to sign Lorraine Close's petition, to posting  links to media items to updates on the rail roko and information/conversation tweets with others. Recipients of interest       
include Lorraine Close and Indra Sinha.                                                                                                                                              
One tweet indicated Express on Sunday journalist Ted Jeory was in Bhopal for the anniversary.                                                                                        
Full text of the twitter list is available on request.                                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                     
Social media activity on the Bhopal topics peaked on the weekend, with over 150 tweets on Sunday alone. That is not viral, but definitely indicative of an extended conversation.    
Full text available on request.                                                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                     
BMA's Twitter and Facebook feeds have consisted mainly on media links, recommendations for tweet recipients to sign Close's petition, and links to the Amnesty International UK and  
USA statements/action on the Dow sponsorship.                                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                   Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                     
  --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   
                                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                        Allis Information Management, Inc..                                                                          

   Please remove me from this mailing list.

    
","2011-12-10 00:55:40",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/396510_dow-confidential-bhopal-monitoring-report-friday-december-09.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","mongoven@stratfor.com","attach/35/35407_Activist_info_12-03-11_AI_USA_to_USOC.pdf
attach/35/35408_Blog_12-05-11_AI_USA_action_call.pdf
attach/35/35411_Activist_info_12-05-11_B_Gardiner_site.pdf"
396520,"Re: STAFF - ICJB coordinators/board
","   Yeah the whole thing is weird.  Ortman was first working out of PANNA's
   office (and on PANNA's staff list) but apparently ICJB is still under
   PANNA's wing but PANNA no longer lists Ortman on staff.  If you want to
   send a donation to ICJB you still send it to PANNA c/o Ortman, though.

   On 12/23/2010 1:56 PM, Joseph de Feo wrote:

     Ortman has been the coordinator for years.  Rosenfeld is newer to the
     post -- probably this year.  Anyway, seems odd that ICJB needs two.

     On 12/23/2010 1:49 PM, Kathleen Morson wrote:

       Shana Ortman and Claire Rosenfeld are the US coordinators for ICJB.

       http://www.studentsforbhopal.org/node/57
       Advisory Board
       The Students for Bhopal Advisory Board is the national leadership body
       for SfB, representing the North American grassroots supporters of the
       International Campaign for Justice in Bhopal. Composed of
       approximately 7 volunteer members as well as the US staff member of
       ICJB, the Advisory Board coordinates the actions, projects, and
       initiatives undertaken by ICJB/SfB in North America.

       Who is on the Advisory Board?
       Shana Blustein Ortman
       U.S. Coordinator, International Campaign for Justice in Bhopal; SfB
       Advisory Board Member
       Shana has worked on social and environmental justice for the past 10
       years, and she is extremely moved and inspired by the struggle for
       Justice in Bhopal.  Before becoming the U.S. Coordinator for ICJB in
       April 2008, she spent nearly four years at ForestEthics, where she was
       the Lead Organizer on the Paper Campaign.  Her work focused on
       leadership development and creating grassroots organizing for a
       campaign that is transforming the catalog industry and protecting
       Endangered Forests. Most notably, in 2006, they won the Victoria's
       Dirty Secret campaign, a three year campaign that included over 750
       grassroots actions across North America.  Shana got her B.A. in
       Humanities, with a focus on Children's Literature and Social Change
       from New College of California in 2005.  She also spent two years
       studying Anthropology at Grinnell College, where she was very involved
       with student activism for environmental justice and human rights.   

       Claire Rosenfeld
       U.S. Coordinator, International Campaign for Justice in Bhopal; SfB
       Advisory Board Member

       Claire got involved with ICJB when she spent a week in July/2008 at
       the Sambhavna Trust Clinic in Bhopal.  She interned over summer with
       Shana at ICJB in San Francisco and organized the hugely successful
       curry cook-off fundraiser. Claire earned her B.A. in Cultural Studies
       and Foreign Languages (Spanish, Hindi) at the Evergreen State College
       in Olympia, WA. As part of the advisory board, she hopes to
       collaborate with groups committed to resolving the ongoing tragedy and
       provide her own insight about the direction of the campaign in North
       America. She brings her strong belief that corporate profit should
       never come at the price of human lives.

       Tony Millard
       SfB Advisory Board Member
       Tony graduated from the Northwestern University Medill School of
       Journalism in 2006, and he is currently working as a producer, writer
       and editor for an XM satellite medical radio station called ReachMD.
       In his first year on the AB, he helped to coordinate our extensive
       media campaign throughout the entire 2008 Padyatra, which included
       frequent press releases and outreach to news and information outlets
       across a variety of mediums throughout the United States.

       Having volunteered at the Sambhavna Clinic in Bhopal for most of a
       year spanning parts of 2006 and 2007, he hasa firm, first-hand
       perspective of the situation on the ground in Bhopal. From Sambhavna
       to the dilapidated factory, to Oriya Basti and Hamidia Hospital, to
       the oft-protested home of the chief minister of Madhya Pradesh in
       Shamla Hills, his knowledge of Bhopal is a benefit to our strategizing
       and planning actions here in the United States. This applies
       particularly from the standpoint of communicating to others the extent
       of the devastation across Bhopal, but more importantly, the spirit of
       the Bhopalis who continue to fight for Justice.

       Diana Katgara
       SfB Advisory Board Member
       Diana had the chance to spend some time in Bhopal and get to know a
       number of people there. These people who are strong, brillliant,
       loving, creative, inspirational, funny, musical, articulate,
       insightful, caring, full of hope and who will never ever give up
       fighting for justice for themselves and fighting to ensure that what
       has happened to Bhopalis doesn't happen to others have become an
       important part of her life. **The grave injustices that have happened
       and continue to happen in Bhopal are unacceptable. From December 3rd,
       1984 onwards Bhopalies have witnessed the horrors of losing their
       loved ones and continue to be lied to and cheated out of effective
       health care, clean water, safety against deadly poisons, the ability
       to earn, the right not to have to feed babies contaminated breast
       milk, just to name a few things. And yet, they continue to have hope
       and love and show care to eachother and those of us who ask if we can
       stand alongside them. They continue to have hope and trust that the
       world will not let this injustice continue.**Over the last year and a
       half she hasseen the creative and meaningful ways that the SfB has
       supported the Bhopal Campaign in the US and she thinks it would be
       great to bring some of that over to Canada.

       Yogesh Simmhan
       SfB Advisory Board Member
       Yogesh brings his passion for justice to the Advisory Board--he hopes
       to improve the lives of Bhopalis, and fight corporate greed and
       government apathy. Co-founder of AID at the Indiana University,
       Bloomington, Yogesh organized all Bhopal-related events at his
       university from 2003-2007 including vigils, protests, panel
       discussions with Ryan Bodyani and Rajan Sharma, and a Bhopal photo
       exhibit. Additionally, he has worked with Amnesty International in
       picketing a talk by Dow CEO Andrew Liveris in Indianapolis.   In 2006
       he helped host the Students for Bhopal conference in Bloomington.
       Yogesh has experience in letter writing, media management, and event
       organizing. He sees the approaching 25th anniversary of the gas
       tragedy as an important opportunity: \"The looming 25th  anniversary is
       a crucial juncture for our campaign and SfB needs all the support
       possible to mobilize across the US. This is the time for everyone
       associated with the campaign to stand up and be counted, and I'm
       answering this call.\"

       Ellen Shifrin
       SFB Advisory Board Member
       A former professor and administer, Ellen has strong communication and
       organizational skills.   Her involvement with the campaign for justice
       in Bhopal began in 2008, but she was involved with Amnesty
       International for many years.   She has been invited to table at the
       UN Association of Canada, Toronto event on Water and the AI
       Business&Human Rights conference, The Case for Water as a Human
       Right.   Having traveled to the subcontinent eight times, Ellen is
       looking forward to combining her deep-rooted passions for human rights
       and India.
       Why do you believe in justice for Bhopal?
       \"Bhopal serves not only as a situation in itself, but also as a model
       for people in other places fighting the same type of violations. There
       are so many levels on which to work for justice in Bhopal - human and
       environmental rights, politics, economics, and the human spirit. So
       because Bhopal will always be with us in one way or another, because
       the fight of the gas and water-affected people is wholly non-violent,
       because the spirit of the survivors is so strong--all these are
       reasons why I want to be part of the Advisory Board, why I want to be
       more involved, and why I feel it's such an important cause to be
       whole-heartedly committed to.\"

        

        

        

       Leonid Chindelevitch
       SFB Advisory Board Member

       After being involved with the Bhopal campaign for 3 years at the local
       level and gained experience in activities ranging from making banners
       and folding my body in the shape of various letters to preparing
       budget requests and coordinating the chapter's activities, Leonid has
       taken the next step of joining the campaign's Advisory Board. He
       expects to make significant contribution to SfB by organizing
       fundraising events, recruiting new members to the campaign and
       contacting the media. In addition, he hopes to bring new insights into
       campaign strategies on the 25th anniversary of the Bhopal disaster.

        

       Interested in joining the Advisory Board?
       In the fall there are Advisory Board nominations for positions that
       last for one year.  Occasionally there are openings during other parts
       of the year.  Email shana@panna.org to learn more.

        

        

       Past Members of the Advisory Board
       Pragya Bhagat (2007-09)

       Association for India's Development, Austin

       Aqueue Freechild (2004-2009)

       US Strategy Coordinator, ICJB

       Daniel Yeow (2007-08)

       Amnesty International, Columbia University

       Raghav Kaushik (2006-2007)

       Ryan Bodyani (2004-2007)

       Student Coordinator, ICJB
","2010-12-23 20:01:59",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/396520_re-staff-icjb-coordinators-board-.html","morson@stratfor.com","","mongoven@stratfor.com,defeo@stratfor.com,pubpolblog.post@blogger.com",""
396636,"Bhopal update 12-08-11 media
","   Scot, Tomm,

   Reuters reported India's first athlete to qualify for the London Olympics,
   marksman Gagan Narang, said Dow's Olympics sponsorship is an opportunity
   for the company to gain \"redemption\" and should be allowed. He agreed with
   IOC president Rogge that a boycott would only hurt the Indian athletes,
   and stated the athletes are to go to the Games as ambassadors for their
   country.

   Pickups are not extensive, mainly Reuters and Yahoo! outlets - UK &
   Ireland, Africa, Singapore, SBS, World News Australia, Eurosport, Yahoo!
   Sports, and Yahoo! Xtra blogs.

   http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/08/olympics-india-boycott-idUSL3E7N83LW20111208

   SportzPower reported the IOA plans to meet on Friday to discuss \"all the
   issues\" of Dow's Olympic sponsorship, and Rogge's recommendation to that
   body.

   This is the only media to confirm the Dec. 9 meeting reported by PTI
   earlier this week. SportzPower said the IOA \"has gone on a back foot\" as
   its secretary general Raja Randhir Singh is in Switzerland meeting with
   the IOC, and acting president V K Malhotra \"remaining silent,\" so vice
   president Tarlochan Singh has apparently taken the lead on the \"crisis.\"
   The article described the week's developments from Indian agencies and the
   IOC, and ended with \"Last learnt, the IOA will stick to its position on
   Indian participating in London Games, but the athletes in the committee,
   many of whom are from Bhopal, will not accept that.\"

   http://www.sportzpower.com/?q=content/ioa-pushing-participating-london-games-athletes-commoners-oppose

   PTI reported Indian tennis player Sania Mirza said she would follow the
   government's instructions on the issue of a boycott: \"As athletes we will
   go with what the country decides.\" Picked up by MSN India, Pioneer,
   Siaset, Rediff, Express India, Sify, and I4U, a Delaware-based media
   outlet.

   http://sports.in.msn.com/tennis/article.aspx?cp-documentid=5648177

   Bhopal Central Chronicle reported on the \"other\" change.org petition that
   was addressed to the IOA and intended for athletes to sign. The item has
   gathered 900 signatures of 1,000 targeted. The Chronicle reporter claimed
   the petition surpassing 750 signatures made it a significant pressure on
   the IOA going into the Dec. 15 meeting.

   http://www.centralchronicle.com/ioa-faces-new-pressure-to-boycott-dow-olympic-2012.html

   UK local media North West Times published a lengthy letter to the editor
   criticizing Lord Coe for the Dow sponsorship and claiming it would result
   in \"big protests and disrupt the Games,\" with the possibility of \"bringing
   Wembley and other venues to a standstill.\" The letter encouraged readers
   to email the Culture, Media and Sport commission \"asking for the decision
   to be reversed,\" and to sign Lorraine Close's change.org petition. No name
   was provided, full text is available on request.

   Indian Express reported on Rachna Dhingra stating the ICJB will do
   everything it can to hold a \"Bhopal Olympics\" with children from Bhopal,
   Vietnam, Nicaragua \"and other countries.\"

   http://www.indianexpress.com/news/Bhopal-may-defy-IOC-with-own--Olympics-/885241/

    

   Sri Lanka  Guardian posted a commentary about Dow risking its reputation
   and good will over the Olympics sponsorship. This included a description
   of DAS India being blacklisted.

   http://www.srilankaguardian.org/2011/12/dow-chemical-now-facing-image-issues-in.html

   Times of India reported Bhopal residents of the Jehangirabad and Aishbagh
   locales are complaining of being harassed by police and questioned about
   the rail roko violence on Dec. 3. The Communist Party of India (Marxist)
   may hold a demonstration to protest the \"alleged police excesses\" on Dec.
   3.

   http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bhopal/Cops-harassing-us-for-Dec-3-protests/articleshow/11031304.cms

   Times of India also reported on the MP Human Rights Commission calling for
   an explanation from the Bhopal district collector and the senior police
   superintendant about Saturday's violence.  A dozen questions posed by the
   HRC regarding details of the incident were included in the article.

   http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-12-07/indore/30486428_1_rail-roko-gas-shells-police-force

   PANNA issued a press release announcing Permanent People's Tribunal found
   the \"Big 6\" agrichemical companies \"guilty\" of human rights violations.
   PANNA co-director Kathryn Gilje described the event, and the press piece
   listed several of the individuals who testified and each ones' topic.

   http://www.commondreams.org/newswire/2011/12/07-17

    The print editions had six instances of the PTI story announcing the
   IOA's intent to discuss Dow's Olympic sponsorship at the next IOA
   meeting.  All were in the Sports sections:

   Hindustan Times - New Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chandigarh, all on p 15
   or 16, all located below the fold on the right hand side

   Times of India's Mumbai edition had \"snapshot\" version of the article on p
   25 in the top right corner

   Asian Age's New Delhi edition had the \"brief\" version in the top left
   corner.

   Times of India's Mumbai edition also included the two point-counterpoint
   editorials on the sponsorship that were reported on Wednesday.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-12-08 18:39:55",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/396636_bhopal-update-12-08-11-media-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
397199,"Bhopal update - 02-15-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   The petition by Max Carlson now has 276 signatures.

   Becky Moss posted on the BMA website the Focus For Humanity press release
   from 2/11 announcing Alex Massi's NGO Assignment Fellowship to fund his
   partnership with BMA.

   On Twitter:

   -       Becky Moss has posted four tweets this month. The first two were
   on the protests in Egypt, the last two are links to media on Bhopal item:
   HT on the Samar Jodha photo exhibit and India Today on the ICJB press
   release about the BHMRC drug trials

   -       The Yes Men tweeted about the US Chamber of Commerce \"plotting
   forged emails, documents to trick (AND smear) opponents. [see media item
   below]

   -       MIC activist Nancy Swan tweeted three media links on the suit
   against Bayer CropScience on the MIC restart

   In the media:

   -       Indian Express reported former CBI official BR Lall wrote in his
   book \"Free the CBI - Power Games in Bhopal and Other Cases\" that Law
   Minister V Moily \"blindly\" accused and \"punished\" people who \"said
   something against him or...against his master.\" The article ended with the
   Bhopal content previously reported on the book, that the GoI's settlement
   with Union Carbide was a \"sellout.\"

   http://www.indianexpress.com/news/cbi-officer-who-probed-bhopal-gas-leak-hits-back-at-moily/750131/

   -       Associated Press reported an Ecuadorean court found Chevron guilty
   of environmental damage and imposed an $8.6 billion fine. The Bhopal gas
   leak and the BP oil spill are cited as other \"major environmental damage
   payments.\" As usual with AP items, there have been more than 300 pickups.

   http://news.findlaw.com/ap_stories/f/1310/02-14-2011/20110214172000_08.html

   -       Detroit News published an article on Andrew Liveris' access to the
   Obama White House and \"reaping benefits\" from the relationship: i.e. the
   Dow Kokkam battery business. The activists will likely take exception to
   the report; expect at the least derisive posts on social media feeds.

   http://www.detnews.com/article/20110215/BIZ/102150332/1001

   Institute, WV

   -       Charleston Examiner reported a clarification of Judge Goodwin's
   injunction against Bayer producing MIC at the Institute facility. The
   company can work on \"reconfiguring\" the MIC plant, but not actually
   produce the chemical.

   http://www.examiner.com/environmental-news-in-charleston/federal-judge-explains-scope-of-restraining-order-on-bayer-s-production-of-mic

   -       Charleston Gazette reported on Bayer's work on the MIC plant and
   related training procedures. Both of these pieces referred to Bhopal in
   the context of the lawsuit against Bayer.

   http://wvgazettemail.com/News/201102141454

   -       Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) deemed the 1984 Bhopal
   gas tragedy as the \"Worst industrial accident\" in a list of the \"worst
   eco-catastrophes of all time.\" Greenpeace Australia Pacific campaigner
   Steve Campbell said Bhopal \"is a stark reminder that close scrutiny of
   corporations is critical...\" The Bhopal entry said UCC \"got away with
   paying just $470 million\" in compensation.

   http://www.abc.net.au/environment/articles/2011/02/15/3135546.htm

   -       Left online media Global Post reported on India whistleblowers
   being killed who have used documents obtained via the Right To Information
   (RTI) act to reveal corruption in the country. A 2010 photo with the
   article shows Bhopal campaigners with RTI requests about the Nuclear
   Liability Bill.

   http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/india/110214/right-to-information-law-corruption

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-02-15 17:57:22",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/397199_bhopal-update-02-15-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
397224,"Re: MX1
","   Would like to meet, let me look at my schedule. We should keep him away
   from S4 for source protection.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Date: Wed, 30 Jun 2010 15:57:53 -0500
   To: Fred Burton<burton@stratfor.com>; Alex Posey<alex.posey@stratfor.com>;
   Ben West<ben.west@stratfor.com>
   Subject: MX1
   MX1 is coming to town on Friday. Will be available at noon for lunch and
   has indicated that he would want to meet with anyone that wants to talk to
   him.

   Just tell me if you are down. Something near the office -- Gumbos -- would
   probably work.

   I would not be attending.

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-06-30 23:54:32",1,"2012-03-03 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/397224_re-mx1-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","marko.papic@stratfor.com,ben.west@stratfor.com,alex.posey@stratfor.com",""
397418,"INSIGHT - BRAZIL - Rio favela crackdowns
","   Will elaborate on a lot of this later, but here are just some initial
   thoughts on what I've observed here so far.  Have some *awesome* pics,
   video and audio recordings from this favela trip that we'll be able to use
   for a report.
   Yesterday, I visited the favela, Santa Marta, with 3 of my local contacts.
   Santa Marta was the first Rio favela to have been pacified under the UPP
   strategy (where the army and police go in first, drive out the drug
   traffickers and the police occupy the favela for the long-term while
   promoting social, economic development, providing services, etc.)
   You seriously cannot help but be impressed by this model.  I not only had
   my own reaction to what we saw, but also saw the reactions of the three
   Cariocas (from Rio) I was with. They had never thought it would be
   possible to enter a favela like this. The Rio government is actively
   trying to get more locals to come and see the favela for themselves and
   take a tour. Literally, they have a tourist - style kiosk at the bottom of
   the favela hill with a glossy guide in Portuguese and English of the
   favela with a map pointing out all the main areas.  They have a cable car
   that takes you to the top of the hill as well.  It is completely bizarre.
   We went up to the top of the hill where the UPP police command is located
   (strategically, you can see why the first step of the favela pacification
   campaigns is to establish the command at the top of the hill. From the top
   of the command, a bright yellow church in the favela is in clear line of
   sight. The church was the primary watch point for the drug traffickers. In
   going through the maze of the favela, you can see how this is tactical
   nightmare for anyone on the other side of the guerrilla campaign. So many
   chokepoints, easy jumping access, blind spots, etc. 
   UPP pacification started 4 years ago in this favela, but there were still
   big shootouts up to a year ago. The owner of the apartment i am staying at
   was just telling me how her nieces go to a school nearby (many of the
   nicest places in Rio have a perfect view of this favela next door) and how
   the school had to be evacuated, a perimeter set up, etc. when the
   shootouts were still happening a year ago. What I saw yesterday was
   complete tranquility in this favela. We went up to the top of the UPP
   command and started chatting with the chief of police there and his
   assistant. They, like pretty much all Brazilians I've met, had no issues
   in chatting, having a beer with us, showing us the entire police command
   and answering whatever questions we had. It was extremely laid back (have
   recordings of those conversations that I'll transcribe later.)
   He basically described how previous attempts at pacification didn't work,
   no one had trust in the police that they would stay, police weren't
   trained in dealing with the population, social development, etc. The
   police would leave an escape route through the back for the traffickers to
   escape and got paid in the end. Police militias rapidly developed,
   corruption grew, it was a mess. There was no comprehensive strategy. The
   police that came in used a lot of violence, they were hated by the favela
   dwellers and then once the army left, the drug traffickers just came back
   in. Under the UPP campaign (the one being followed now for all favelas,)
   they come in by force with the army, marines, special forces, helicopters,
   etc., drive out the drug traffickers and then establish a police command.
   The police conduct regular patrols, provide services, set up electricity,
   sewage, dish networks, employments, free tuition at local schools for the
   kids, etc.  You can see the effect. In walking through the police command,
   I saw all these pictures and chair rankings for violin and cello classes
   that were being held there. Kids all over the favela looked totally
   relaxed, completely unfazed by our presence and by me taking pictures of
   them, generally quite happy, playing soccer, painting walls, flying kites,
   etc. You still see a lot of crazy wiring around the favela, but also brand
   new light installations, electricity meters, HDTV satellite dishes, etc.
   All the dwellings in Santa Marta have their own number and address so
   they're integrated with the state. Kids in the favela get to go to school
   for free in some of the really nice schools in Rio, all part of the
   integration effort. 
   The policeman we talked to said the locals in Santa Marta play a 'symbolic
   tax' for the services, but he laughed and said they still complain.  Just
   as an example of the trust i could see between the police and the locals
   there, when we climbed to the top of the favela around this insanely
   bullet-ridden wall, I saw the chief of the police command at the top
   helping a kid fly a kite. There's pretty much complete integration, very
   laid back feeling throughout.
   Ironically, I felt safer in this favela than I have anywhere else in Rio,
   including the richest parts, where petty theft is rampant
   the police commander explained how their biggest problem moving forward is
   training and resources. To give an idea of scale, Rocinha (where most of
   the most wanted drug traffickers are and/or have fled) is seven times the
   size of Santa Marta. They acknowledge they don't have nearly enough police
   recruits to go in an occupy like they've done here (in Santa Marta, the
   police command is staying for a minimum of 25 years - it's an occupation.)
   The police we talked to all think the head of CV (Red Command is in
   Rocinha.) I've been asking around a lot to see what the next favela target
   will be for the police... the two military generals I met with this
   morning (more insight on that meeting later) are saying Rocinha and the
   main favelas in the west part of Rio, where most of the construction for
   the WC and Olympics is taking place (there's more land there for
   development.)  They don't want to announce the next target of course,
   since that would deny them whatever strategic surprise they can retain.
   Salaries are the biggest issue, according to the UPP commander.   The
   state needs to raise the pay to motivate more police recruits to do this
   work. I asked him what the pay of the kite watcher boy was (the boys who
   would fly a certain color kite to alert the drug traffickers when the
   police were coming) versus the patrol soldiers. The kite watcher made -
   50-1000 Rs per month. Pay of patrol officer, about 1,500-2000 Rs per
   month 
   CV (Red Command) lost their command hq with the pacification of Santa
   Marta. You can still see remnants of violence everywhere - giant bullet
   holes, faded CV graffiti, stories from the locals there. We had a beer at
   a small bar midway down the favela overlooking all of Rio. He was telling
   us how much better things are now.. before the before the drug dealers
   would come force him to make food for them without paying, and there was
   nothing he could do to resist or force payment. All the kids hang out
   there to watch the new flat screen tv he has set up when the electricity
   goes out.
   As far as the supply chain goes, most of the marijuana comes from the
   northeast, cocaine and marijuana from colombia, bolivia, paraguay. Brazil
   primarily is dealing iwth sales, production is on an extremely limited
   scale. Everyone acknowledges the market isn't going away.
   I am following up this visit with visits to unpacified favelas as well,
   both in Rio and Sao Paulo. I won't be able to get the pictures and videos
   i want from those trips for security reasons, but I do want to get that
   perspective to compare the two. This UPP project is extremely important
   for the government's social development needs. They need to show that they
   control large swathes of urban territory that were previously conceded to
   the drug traffickers (in the 1980s you had situations where the governor
   in Rio prevented the police from even entering the favela.)   The Brig-Gen
   i was speaking to this morning was saying how they need to keep the
   momentum going. Brazilians are seeing that the model is working and they
   have to follow through. The biggest problem is still time and resource
   constraints. Resources, because they simply don't have enough police, much
   less well-trained police, to go into the more massive favelas and occupy
   them. Time, because with the Olympics and WC coming up, the last thing
   Brazil wants is the world watching shootouts with drug traffickers on TV
   in Rio.  I'm not sure how they're going to do it, and i'm not sure they
   know either. My impression is that they are going to keep going ahead with
   this for this year at least -- with Rocinha favela being a major target.
   My question then is what are teh drug trafficking groups going to do?
   They're already aligning with each other in the face of a common enemy
   (the state and the UPP campaign.)  The most effective way to hit back at
   the state and get them to back off is to threaten civilian targets that
   would tarnish brazil's image when it's in the global spotlight. The
   general i spoke to said a lot of officials in the govt don't like to
   acknowledge this threat, but it is definitely there. At that point, I
   suspect they'd have to reach some sort of accommodation, even if it's a
   temporary one.  What we need to watching for is the Rocinha crackdown and
   expansion to the favelas in the western sector of Rio and the reaction of
   the drug groups.  
","2011-01-03 22:52:52",1,"2012-03-26 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/397418_insight-brazil-rio-favela-crackdowns-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
397495,"Fwd: INSIGHT - GREECE - Monetary troubles rumor mill
","   Per our discussion.  Going back to a previous ...
   Sent from my iPhone
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
     Date: January 16, 2010 5:00:14 PM EST
     To: marko.papic@stratfor.com, \"Analysts\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: INSIGHT - GREECE - Monetary troubles rumor mill
     Reply-To: friedman@att.blackberry.net, Analyst List
     <analysts@stratfor.com>

     Understood. But I would like you and the others dealing with greece to
     explain the significance of greece's problems to the world or region. Is
     important that in selecting a subject to for attention we begin by
     defining the significance of ths subject. We spend a lot of time
     addressing issues whose importance needs definition.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: marko.papic@stratfor.com
     Date: Sat, 16 Jan 2010 15:31:10 -0600 (CST)
     To: friedman@att.blackberry.net<friedman@att.blackberry.net>; Analyst
     List<analysts@stratfor.com>
     Cc: Analysts<analysts@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: INSIGHT - GREECE - Monetary troubles rumor mill
     Its not really important for the region how or why Greece is in trouble.
     I wasjust replying to the insight I saw. 

     On Jan 16, 2010, at 3:09 PM, \"George Friedman\"
     <friedman@att.blackberry.net> wrote:

       Why is this of interest to us?

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: marko.papic@stratfor.com
       Date: Sat, 16 Jan 2010 14:58:43 -0600 (CST)
       To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
       Cc: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
       Subject: Re: INSIGHT - GREECE - Monetary troubles rumor mill
       The second point is 100% correct. 

       On Jan 16, 2010, at 1:53 PM, Robert Reinfrank
       <robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com> wrote:

         I had read rumors about this as well. I know it's just a rumor, and
         that we're talking about Greece statistics, but it seems consistent
         with the massive upward revisions of their budget deficit,  from 6
         to close to 13 percent. 

         **************************
         Robert Reinfrank
         STRATFOR
         Austin, Texas
         W: +1 512 744-4110
         C: +1 310 614-1156
         On Jan 16, 2010, at 12:37 PM, Laura Jack <laura.jack@stratfor.com>
         wrote:

           CODE: GR101
           PUBLICATION: background
           ATTRIBUTION: Greek sources in the EU
           SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Greek attorney in Brussels who ran for
           Parliament in Athens with PASOK
           SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
           ITEM CREDIBILITY: 4 (rumor and hearsay)
           SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:  Analysts
           HANDLER: Laura

           This is all rumor mill in Brussels, but comes from a Greek source
           who has good government contacts:

           1 - Allegedly, the current Greek government purposefully
           exacerbated the deficit problem in 2009 (with the goals of pinning
           all economic problems on the previous administration and also
           possibly to get more help from international bodies) by paying
           some accounts due early. For instance, payments that would have
           been okay to make in January 2010 were paid early in Nov or
           December 2009 to purposefully increase govt spending.

           2 - There are suspicions that Karamanlis used the fires as an
           excuse to call elections because he saw that the shit was about to
           hit the fan on the government's financial situation.

           3 - When I asked about the IMF team looking at the Greek books my
           source laughed and said, \"that's assuming they even show them the
           right books.\"

           <laura_jack.vcf>
","2010-01-17 00:57:08",1,"2012-03-17 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/397495_fwd-insight-greece-monetary-troubles-rumor-mill-.html","mongoven@stratfor.com","","morson@stratfor.com",""
397988,"Re: Assange
","   Funny...and probably good advice. It's not Doubleday, specifically - it's
   the Knopf side, but hopefully they do well.

   Happy holidays!
   Jason
    
   From: George Friedman [mailto:gfriedman@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, December 27, 2010 05:44 PM
   To: Kaufman, Jason
   Subject: Assange
    
   You guys are publishing him?  Get it out fast.  This guys shelf life may
   not be all you hope. He is always one step away from a crazed moment, like
   comparing himself to Martin Luther King and saying that 50 percent of the
   people in the world believe that.  The deck is not completely full. 

   I'd say get to market in two months. Enjoy.
   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334
","2010-12-28 18:00:09",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/397988_re-assange-.html","JKaufman@randomhouse.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com",""
398032,"Bhopal update - 10-25-11 media
","   Scot, Tomm,

   The Amnesty press release objecting to Dow's Olympic sponsorship has had
   at least a dozen pickups in US, Canada, India and global media, but
   apparently not by the major wire services. The piece that was reported on
   Monday evening was seen via the following websites: States News Service,
   Common Dreams, PTI, Daily Bhaskar, allvoices, Canada Views, Yuba Net,
   Management (Netherlands), Tolerance.ca, Times of India, MSN India,
   Economic Times, Indian Express, and Business Standard.

   http://www.commondreams.org/newswire/2011/10/24-5

   IANS reported the Bhopal NGOs issued a press release of their own on the
   Olympics sponsorship topic. Rachna Dhingra complained about India's Prime
   Minister and the Indian Olympic Association (IOA) not writing to the LOCOG
   to protest Dow's sponsorship. IOA acting president Vijay Kumar Malhotra
   had said he would write a letter, but has not. The gas NGOs have written
   to PM Singh asking him to write to the LOCOG, which he has not done. The
   NGOs said they will themselves write directly to Lord Coe on the matter.
   Dhingra mentioned the Amnesty letter to Coe.

   This piece has had about 10 pickups, all in Indian media except for Yahoo!
   News. Pickups include India Gazette, Yahoo, allvoices, Daji World, Kerala
   Next, WebIndia123, Indians in Thailand, Mangalorean, NewsOne, and
   TwoCircles.net.

   Full text of the press release does not appear to be available at this
   time.

   http://story.indiagazette.com/index.php/ct/9/cid/701ee96610c884a6/id/200419580/cs/1/ht/Bhopal%20gas%20victims%20slam%20Dow%20sponsoring%20London%20Olympics/

   Daily News & Analysis published a print article on the ICJB press release,
   which is very similar to the IANS account. The article appeared in the DNA
   Indore edition on p5 in the top left corner.

   India's Telegraph reported a 33-year-old woman is now the \"head of the
   Bhopal royals' religious endowments.\" Saba Ali Khan said she \"wanted to
   visit some Bhopal gas survivors\" on a recent visit to the city, but
   \"circumstances forced her to cancel the trip.\" The circumstances had to do
   with the government razing \"a few homes in an unauthorized colony at Arif
   Nagar, which has dwellings of gas survivors.\" Full text available on
   request.

   In Spain, Eldiariomontanes published an article about the Yes Men's pranks
   that does not appear to be favorable to the activists. The BBC/Bhopal hoax
   is mentioned.

   Spanish language: 
   http://www.eldiariomontanes.es/v/20111025/sociedad/destacados/acidas-travesuras-20111025.html

   The activist report will follow shortly.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-10-25 17:00:53",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/398032_bhopal-update-10-25-11-media-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
398088,"Yes Men monitoring - 02-04-11
","   Yes Man Andy Bichlbaum will appear on Thursday, Feb. 10 as a \"discussant\"
   at a session of the College Arts Association Conference in New York City.
   The session on \"The Art of Pranks\" will be held at 9:30 a.m. in the Nassau
   Suite of the Hilton New York.

   http://conference.collegeart.org/2011/sessions/sessions.php?period=2011-02-10

   Bichlbaum was also recently interviewed for PBS program MediaShift by
   fellow Parsons The New School for Design faculty member Mark Hannah. The
   topic of was \"the ethics of WikiLeaks.\" Bichlbaum is a supporter of Mark
   Assange's work, saying WikiLeaks is \"the manifestation of the promise of
   the Internet: To bring about more democracy.\" Hannah differed with
   Bichlbaum, concluding that Assange's intent is to be in the spotlight
   himself, where the Yes Men \"Men are happy to make a spectacle of
   themselves in order to bring public attention to corporate exploitation
   and malfeasance.\"

   http://www.pbs.org/mediashift/2011/02/the-yes-mens-bichlbaum-discusses-ethics-of-wikileaks033.html

   Yes Men Fix The World Screenings have been added to the calendar:

   -       Sat, Feb. 5 in Fayetteville, NC at the Cameo Art House Theatre.
   Sponsored by Sustainable Sandhills Promotions, a post-film discussion be
   held.

   -       Tues, Feb. 8 in Lethbridge, AB at Galilleo's Lounge, Student Union
   Building, Univ. of Lethbridge. Sponsored by Cinema Politica.

   -       Thurs, Mar. 10 in Toronto, ONT at the National Film Board, 150
   John St. Sponsored by the Elementary Teachers of Toronto Political Acion
   Committee. The event speaker is Steve Shallhorn, Exec. Dir. Of Labour
   Education Centre, who \"has worked across the world with Greenpeace and has
   a long history of community involvement in Toronto.\"

   -       Mon., Mar. 14 in Albuquerque, NM at the Univ. of NM's SUB Theater
   Room 1003. Sponsored by the People Before Profit film series. Post-film
   discussions during the series are led by professors and graduate students.

   Regards,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-02-04 20:25:02",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/398088_yes-men-monitoring-02-04-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","mkolleth@dow.com,sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
398199,"Bhopal update - 11-02-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   PTI reported this morning the Bhopal NGO BGPMUS led by Abdul Jabbar wrote
   to PM Singh and \"demanded that the government must demand that the British
   Government and the London Olympic Committee to reject DOW Chemicals
   sponsorship.\" The NGO expanded on their demand, saying if the sponsorship
   is not dropped, India should boycott the Games altogether.

   http://zeenews.india.com/sports/others/india-must-boycott-london-games-if-dow-sponsors-gas-victims_731669.html

   Indian Express and Asian Age reported the Central Information Commission
   has gotten involved in RTI requests from Rachna Dhingra. The hospital had
   denied her document requests, saying it \"was run by an autonomous trust
   created by the Supreme Court of India.\" The CIC has now ordered the
   BMHRC's director to appoint \"a public information officer and an appellate
   authority\" by the end of this week, and fulfill Dhingra's requests by Dec.
   5.

   The articles have only appeared in the print editions at this time. Full
   text available on request.

   Oklahoma State University student media The Daily O'Collegian has a
   commentary by a Freshman in Liberal Studies who cited the Bhopal gas
   accident and Warren Anderson. The commentary is a criticism of capitalism
   and globalization in general.

   http://www.ocolly.com/global-economy-spreads-endemic-global-suffering-1.2678666

   From the activist resources:

   -       A new BMA Facebook page reported a BMA representative attended the
   Scottish Green Party Conference 2011. The BMA rep was not identified.

   -       A new BMA Twitter post reported a new video was posted on the
   group's YouTube channel. The item is 13 minutes long, had only been viewed
   6 times and did not successfully load for viewing.

   -       An Olympics blog titled Playthegame.org posted The Hindu's article
   on the Amnesty Int'l letter to LOCOG objecting to the stadium wrap
   sponsorship. According to its website, \"Play the Game aims to strengthen
   the basic ethical values of sport and encourage democracy, transparency
   and freedom of  expression in world sport. Play the Game is an independent
   institution funded by the Danish Ministry of Culture, the Danish
   Gymnastics and Sports Associations (DGI) and the Danish Federation of
   Company Sports (DFIF).\"

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-11-02 16:34:06",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/398199_bhopal-update-11-02-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
398228,"Yes Men monitoring 02-11-11
","   2/6 The UK's Guardian published an article titled \"Ethical pioneers change
   the way we live\" that included Yes Men Andy Bichlbaum and MIke
   Bonanno among the \"pioneers.\" The article cited the Bhopal/BBC hoax in
   introducing the pair. The following several paragraphs discussed the Yes
   Lab concept of teaching direct media action and described the Chevron \"We
   Agree\" hoax campaign. Bonanno said the Yes Lab network numbers about
   100,000 who are \"chomping at the bit to do something themselves.\"

   Several left and online media outlets have reposted the article.

   http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/feb/06/ethical-living-martha-lane-fox%20http://fb.me/DpfAGa0v

   -       Colin Toogood tweeted a link to the article and posted the link on
   the BMA's Facebook page.

   Western Canada arts/activist magazine Art+Threat republished a review of
   The Yes Men Fix the World that had appeared originally in Nov. 2010 in
   Montreal's Concordia College newspaper The Concordian.

   http://artthreat.net/2011/02/yes-men-fix-the-world-review/

   Best regards,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-02-11 19:57:38",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/398228_yes-men-monitoring-02-11-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","mkolleth@dow.com,sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
398561,"Bhopal update - 11-16-11 Activist
","   Scot, Tomm,

   BMA is actively sending tweets urging recipients to \"Vote to dump Dow\" on
   the Guardian website poll asking \"Should Olympic chiefs dump Dow?\" More
   than 50 messages have been sent in the past few hours.

   The voting results are not visible until after the poll closes, but the
   page has been recommended 367 times so far.

   Three comments have also been posted, all critical of Dow. One of the
   comments is from Pesticide Action Network UK (PAN-UK), which named EDF as
   another Olympic sponsor considered \"dodgy.\"

   http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/poll/2011/nov/15/olympics-2012-dow?fb=native

   Rachna Dhingra and Tim Edwards each emailed the poll URL to the
   \"Remember-Bhopal\" distribution list and encouraged recipients to vote
   \"Yes.\"

   Edwards also emailed 8 URLs for a \"selection of UK coverage\" on Tuesday.

   The ICJB website, Bhopal.net, front page has undergone a partial
   transition, with a new image of a Bhopal torch light rally and a
   reorganization of the information on the page. The site's interior pages
   do not appear to have changed. A snapshot of the new layout is attached.

   The Games Monitor watchdog blog and message board posted Tuesday's BMA
   press announcement and Times of India's report on Coe's hearing testimony
   on the Dow sponsorship.

   Four new screenings of the Bhopali film have been announced from Nov. 30
   to Dec. 2. The events are posted on the film's Facebook page.

   -       11/30 Writer and BMA co-founder Indra Sinha will (host/present?)
   the film screening at the Frontline Club in London at 6:30 p.m.

   -       12/1 The Indie Screen in Brooklyn, NY

   -       12/1 Pittsburgh University, presented by AID Pittsburgh at 7 pm.

   -       12/2 Amnesty International Film Festival, Bloor Street United
   Church in Toronto, Ontario at 11 a.m.

   Also, there is a new AID chapter at George Washington University in
   Washington, D.C. No details have been released about the group, other than
   it was founded \"with the help of a few AID JHU (Johns Hopkins Univ)
   students.\"

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-11-16 21:12:36",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/398561_bhopal-update-11-16-11-activist-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
398679,"Re: GOOGLE's Jared Cohen update
","Marty Lev, the security director and Eric Schmidt the CEO (GOOGLE)

George Friedman wrote:
> We need your sources classified in our system. I have no idea who this
> source is, where he is located or how reliable he is.  You have
> fantastic and invaluable sources but you have to get with Stick to
> build them into our system. Otherwise we can't make good use of them. 
> Please get together on this guys.
>
> On 02/14/11 09:17 , Fred Burton wrote:
>> ** Note comment about Cohen.  The inference is relative to Cohen working
>> for the State Dept and WH to support Arab regime changes.
>>
>>
>> Did C go into Gaza?  Thanks
>>
>> -------- Original Message --------
>>
>> No we told him not too.  He's not happy but accepting of it.  Also,
>> thinking I may be on the right track about him despite his denials. 
>>
>> I will call you Wednesday to discuss more
>>
>>
>>
>>     
>
> -- 
>
> George Friedman
>
> Founder and CEO
>
> STRATFOR
>
> 221 West 6^th Street
>
> Suite 400
>
> Austin, Texas 78701
>
>  
>
> Phone: 512-744-4319
>
> Fax: 512-744-4334
>
>  
>
","2011-02-14 16:25:24",1,"2012-03-14 22:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/398679_re-google-s-jared-cohen-update-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com",""
398705,"Bhopal update - 036-14-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   Colin Toogood posted on the BMA's Facebook and Twitter pages that BMA will
   do a talk on Wed. at 3p.m. for the Student International Development
   Society at the Univ. of Sussex. He asked the Brighton-area networks to
   re-post the event announcement.

   The only media to report at this time is an India participant media piece
   from The Ground Report complaining about corruption at the ministerial
   levels of government. This piece by a Proloy Bagchi invoked Ram
   Jethalmani's allegation last summer that the Congress party \"received
   payments from Union Carbide...after the Bhopal gas tragedy\" and added the
   public outrage against the UCIL criminal case convictions as evidence of
   \"the collusive arrangement between the then Union Government and UCC.\"

   http://www.groundreport.com/Politics/Of-venal-ministers-and-their-corrupt-parties/2936521

   As through the weekend, there are pieces on India's nuclear power debate
   in light of the Japan disaster that also cite the Bhopal gas tragedy.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-03-14 16:13:14",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/398705_bhopal-update-036-14-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
399265,"New video on climate change and hydropower
","   Dear CLIMATE-L,

   International Rivers has created a state-of-the-art Google Earth 3-D tour
   and video narrated by Nigerian activist Nnimmo Bassey, Chair of Friends of
   the Earth International and winner of the prestigious Right Livelihood
   Award. The production was launched yesterday at COP17 in Durban.

   The tour illustrates how melting glaciers in the Himalayas may lead to
   higher flood and safety risks for communities living downstream of dams.
   The tour plunges the viewer deep inside one of Brazil's dirtiest
   reservoirs, at the Tucurui Dam, to visualize how rotting organic material
   creates methane gas, which bubbles up from dam reservoirs to emit
   greenhouse gases in the tropics. The tour visualizes what smaller,
   decentralized projects would look like that could more efficiently
   eradicate energy poverty in Africa than large dams, while also reducing
   the economic risks of drought-crippled dams.

   To access the video on the International Rivers website, you may click
   here: http://www.internationalrivers.org/en/google-earth-climate

   Thank you,
   Zachary

   --
   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
   Zachary Hurwitz
   Policy Program Coordinator
   + 1 510 848 1155 x313 / skype: zacharyhurwitz
   Fax: +1 510 848 1008
   zachary@internationalrivers.org
   www.internationalrivers.org
   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
   Follow us: Blog / Facebook / Twitter

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","2011-11-29 19:39:40",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/399265_new-video-on-climate-change-and-hydropower-.html","zachary@internationalrivers.org","","climate-l@lists.iisd.ca",""
399448,"The Weekly
","   Congratulations on your Weekly. I very much agree with it, and it deserves
   wider circulation by one means or another.
   The problem is that while Stratfor and some other outlets - as well as
   insiders - have known and do appreciate what is going on in the world, the
   vast majority of people have not. I'm not talking about the great unwashed
   here - the people who  fall over for Oprah Winfrey or who don't read the
   news - but even the so called sophisticates and other couch potatoes who
   pretend to be well informed. This includes a good many media folk, and
   most of those who pose as television pundits. When I have said - in this
   case on CNBC - that negotiations have been going on with the Taliban
   (before they actually were announced), that Germany was moving closer to
   Russia, that the US could not defend Georgia, to take some examples, I
   have been greeted with incredulity by my well educated, mostly American,
   interlocutors. I studied the debates on Afghanistan in the UK and
   Australian parliaments line for line, and there was very little to suggest
   that any significant politician was as well informed as the ordinary
   Stratfor subscriber. They repeated the well rehearsed slogans about
   'fighting terrorism' and 'supporting the troops'.  I've also read columns
   of stuff in so called serious newspapers like the FT, The Observer etc
   etc. With some exceptions, most need a reality check. As you've said many
   times, they are too concerned on reporting what people say (largely spin)
   rather than what they actually do. 
   So it is not surprising that these people were given a wake up cal by the
   WikiLeaks stuff, because they were not paying attention, which is a real
   problem. In that sense, in my view, WL has served a purpose. 
   If anything it proves the need for more of the chattering classes and
   media to subscribe to Stratfor. You could take half a dozen of the more
   sensatonal WL leaks and say: 'If you'd subscribed to Stratfor you would
   have known this a year ago\". They would then have known that the Saudis
   were in a fret about Iran long before Assange got round to telling them.
   He's obviously has delusions of his own importance, but I don;t seem him
   as a criminal. He does need to keep his dick under control. 
   C
   --
   Colin Chapman
","2010-12-16 01:18:36",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/399448_the-weekly-.html","colin@colinchapman.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com",""
399501,"BHOPAL - ICJB Annual conference article
","   For some reason the article cuts off, but good to know Gary Cohen went to
   this year's ICJB meeting. Wasn't he away from this for a few years?

   http://www.lokvani.com/lokvani/article.php?article_id=6832
    

   International Campaign For Justice In Bhopal Hosts Annual Conference  
   Press release
   10/13/2010

   Students and Professionals Concerned for Bhopal Meet in Cambridge, MA
   Cambridge-The International Campaign for Justice in Bhopal (ICJB) hosted
   its 6th Annual North American Conference this past weekend to discuss
   ongoing health and environmental issues in Bhopal, India.
   On December 3, 1984 a gas leak from Union Carbide India Limited, a
   U.S.-owned chemical manufacturing site, devastated the central Indian city
   of Bhopal. To this day acute and chronic toxic contamination from the
   disaster has left 25,000 dead, and over 500,000 affected. Dow Chemical
   Corporation (Midland, MI), who acquired Union Carbide in 2001, refuses to
   clean up the abandoned pesticide plant, which has caused a growing
   environmental and public health crisis.
   30 concerned activists from throughout the U.S., and a couple from Europe,
   met on MIT's campus to learn about the Bhopal disaster from field experts.
   They now aim to mobilize their own community members on the human rights
   issue.
   Conference organizers Shana Ortman (San Francisco), Claire Rosenfeld
   (Olympia, WA), and Leonid Chindelevitch (Cambridge, MA) warn that \"we all
   live in Bhopal.\" Keynote speaker Gary Cohen, director of the Environmental
   Health Fund, echoed this reality when he said, \"the same chemicals are in
   our veins.\" In other words, toxic contamination occurs on a smaller scale
   all over the world and even in our own communities.
   Only 10% of Bhopalis have access to uncontaminated water; toxins from the
   pesticide plant are spreading into the city's water table, causing
   cancers, chronic diseases, and birth defects. ICJB would like the Obama
   administration
","2010-12-23 20:19:23",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/399501_bhopal-icjb-annual-conference-article-.html","morson@stratfor.com","","mongoven@stratfor.com,morson@stratfor.com,defeo@stratfor.com,pubpolblog.post@blogger.com",""
400961,"FW: Failure of Stratfor-Stratcap deal
","   Don,

    

   Let's talk before I respond to Shea.  Give me a call at your convenience. 

    

   Best,

    

   Steve

    

    

    

                              CIRCULAR 230 NOTICE

   In accordance with Treasury Regulations, please note that any tax advice
   given herein (and in any attachments) is not intended or written to be
   used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of (i) avoiding
   tax penalties or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another
   party any transaction or matter addressed herein.

    

                             

   This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential information
   belonging to the sender which is legally privileged. The information is
   intended only for the use of the individual or entity named above. If you
   are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or the taking of any action regarding
   the contents of this e-mailed information is strictly prohibited. If you
   have received this transmission in error, please immediately notify us by
   return e-mail, then delete the original message.

    

   From: Shea Morenz [mailto:shea.morenz@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, July 25, 2011 9:09 AM
   To: Don Kuykendall
   Cc: Feldhaus, Stephen; George Friedman; bherzog@willkie.com
   Subject: Re: Failure of Stratfor-Stratcap deal

    

   Don: 10:30am it is

    

   Steve/Bruce: pls send a clear list of any outstanding items at this point
   ASAP. This is not the only issue outstanding.

    

   Thx

   ---------------------

   Shea B. Morenz

   713-410-9719

   shea@morenzfamily.com

    

    

   Sent from my iPhone

   On Jul 25, 2011, at 7:19 AM, Don Kuykendall <kuykendall@stratfor.com>
   wrote:

     How about 10:30 or 1:30, which ever is best for you.  I have a lunch and
     a 3:30.

     Sent from my iPad

     On Jul 25, 2011, at 6:50 AM, Shea Morenz <shea.morenz@stratfor.com>
     wrote:

       Don: what time is best for you today. Also, where are we re: the
       Stratcap Man Co doc?

       ---------------------

       Shea B. Morenz

       713-410-9719

       shea@morenzfamily.com

        

        

       Sent from my iPhone

       On Jul 23, 2011, at 11:41 PM, Don Kuykendall <kuykendall@stratfor.com>
       wrote:

         All is fine.  Shea and I are getting together Monday to work things
         out.  We blamed everything on the lawyers.  The result will be a
         frustrating StratCap and Service agreement that you and Bruce will
         vomit over.  So be it.  George, Shea and I are on the same wave
         length and are willing to have loose ends in the contract to get the
         business deal done.  The three of us have an understanding that goes
         beyond whatnots in the future that might happen.  If we can't trust
         each other, then things are going to fail regardless what the
         contract reads.  StratCap and STRATFOR are the same investment to
         Shea, George and me.  That's the way we move forward.  Do not spend
         time, you neither Bruce, on the service agreement until you hear
         from Shea or me.  

         Don

          

         Sent from my iPhone

         On Jul 23, 2011, at 1:13 PM, \"Feldhaus, Stephen\"
         <sf@feldhauslaw.com> wrote:

           Thanks, George.  I am glad you have gotten into the mix.  Life is
           too short for us to do this deal if it is going to involve the
           type of dealings that we have had with Bruce over the past four
           months (and Shea has to take some responsibility for the way Bruce
           has handled himself-Bruce may be the operator, but Shea read the
           documents and had them explained to him by Bruce, and he didn't
           put a stop to it).

            

           I am inclined to believe that this is going to work out.  Shea not
           only has a lot involved in making sure that this does work out,
           but from what Don has learned about Shea, what Bruce has done is
           not typical of who Shea is or how he operates.

            

           One point of reference.  Shea was with Goldman Sachs, but he was
           head of their regional private wealth group.  He was a
           relationship guy, not a deal guy.  He might have been around
           deals, but he has never done anything like this before.  So I
           think it is important for all of us to realize that he is most
           likely learning as he goes.  Our goal is to make sure he doesn't
           learn some really bad habits that will make living with him hell
           for us.  But if in the course of your talks you happen to find out
           that the bad habits are his, and not just Bruce's, let's all run
           for the hills.

            

           Best,

            

           Steve

            

            

            

                              CIRCULAR 230 NOTICE

           In accordance with Treasury Regulations, please note that any tax
           advice given herein (and in any attachments) is not intended or
           written to be used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the
           purpose of (i) avoiding tax penalties or (ii) promoting, marketing
           or recommending to another party any transaction or matter
           addressed herein.

            

                             

           This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential
           information belonging to the sender which is legally privileged.
           The information is intended only for the use of the individual or
           entity named above. If you are not the intended recipient, you are
           hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution, or the
           taking of any action regarding the contents of this e-mailed
           information is strictly prohibited. If you have received this
           transmission in error, please immediately notify us by return
           e-mail, then delete the original message.

            

           From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@att.blackberry.net]
           Sent: Saturday, July 23, 2011 1:59 PM
           To: Feldhaus, Stephen; George Friedman; Don Kuykendall
           Subject: Re: Failure of Stratfor-Stratcap deal

            

           Shea has asked for a meeting this evening with me and don. I made
           it clear that I expect a complete change of approach precisely
           along your lines. I asked him whether, as a director of stratfor
           he would vote for stratfor to accept the services agreement. This
           is my litmus test.

           My goal here is a sea change in his attitude and tht he accept
           full responsibility for the documents produced. I will propose the
           removal of bruce and if he refuses ask him to pay for him. I do
           not pay for being fucked.

           I suspect this will work out from his attitude.

           Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: \"Feldhaus, Stephen\" <sf@feldhauslaw.com>

           Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2011 12:34:50 -0500 (CDT)

           To: Mr. George Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>; Mr. Don R.
           Kuykendall<kuykendall@stratfor.com>

           ReplyTo: \"Feldhaus, Stephen\" <sf@feldhauslaw.com>

           Subject: Re: Failure of Stratfor-Stratcap deal

            

           Guys,

           You have my total support. Here's an observation that you may wish
           to use.

           We have been approaching this entire process from the perspective
           of what is necessary for success, that is, how should this work to
           give us the highest chance of succeeding with an expanded Stratfor
           and a successful Stratcap. Just look at all the work you've been
           doing George to gear up to support Stratcap. You'll see the same
           approach in my draft of the services agreement. Bruce has not had
           that focus at all. He has been concerned with legalities, and has
           hasn't always been a straight shooter even there. His Stratcap LLC
           Agreement is so one sided as to defy the concept that this is a
           joint effort toward a common goal. In Bruce's approach, Stratcap
           is totally Shea's baby, and we get whatever piece of it we are
           clever enough to negotiate, in the face of his one sided draft,
           while at the same time having a unlimited obligation to support
           it.

           I'm concerned that if we keep going like we've been going, we'll
           have to be referring to the rule book frequently to determine how
           we go forward. We'll also be putting our successful business at
           the risk of demands from Shea that have no boundaries. That's not
           the kind of partnership that I think any of us are looking for.

           I'm hoping you'll find Shea willing to be a good partner, and that
           we can get this back on track. It's in your--and his--hands.

           Best,

           Steve

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: George Friedman <gfriedman@stratfor.com>

           Date: Sat, 23 Jul 2011 11:34:01 -0400

           To: Shea Morenz<shea@morenzfamily.com>; don
           kuykendall<don.kuykendall@stratfor.com>; Feldhaus,
           Stephen<sf@feldhauslaw.com>;
           bherzog@willkie.com<bherzog@willkie.com>

           Subject: Failure of Stratfor-Stratcap deal

            

           Gentleman:

           As you know I have stayed out of the negotiations to this point. I
           am not entering the negotiations now.  I am simply looking back on
           the course of the negotiations, the current status, comparing it
           to the absolute requirements I expressed to Shea at the beginning,
           and pointing out that the agreement, and above all the tone of the
           negotiations, have failed to meet my requirements as stated
           clearly to Shea, and that therefore, I can't agree to this deal.

           I pointed out to Shea that any agreements had to contain the
           following elements:

           1: The interests of the two companies had to be completely
           aligned.
           2: I had to have a completely non-adversarial relationship with
           Shea.
           3: Nothing could threaten Don and my control of Stratfor except
           that we explicitly agree to that.
           4: I must not, under any circumstances be \"Dr. Kooped,\" that is
           turned into a powerless figurehead, without power, ridiculed for
           the failures of others.

           These were not economic issues . They were existential issues of
           how I planned to live my life.  In reviewing the negotiations and
           current documents, my clearly stated requirements have not only
           not been met, but to the contrary, have been ignored.

           Let me begin with the negotiations which have been nasty, brutish
           and long.  I don't know if what I have observed from afar is
           simply a clumsy attempt at a good/cop bad cop routine or that Shea
           literally couldn't control Bruce, and I frankly don't care. What
           is of concern to me is that the singularly unpleasant approach to
           the negotiations of Bruce represents Shea's values and that I can
           expect more of it in the future. I won't live in that environment
           so the atmosphere of the negotiations for me is a deal killer. 
           Whether Bruce was acting at Shea's behest or Shea simply permitted
           that to go forward, Bruce's behavior is a serious red flag to me
           about what life would be like working with Shea.

           Let me review the way this deal has emerged.  We began at the
           Headliners Club where Shea proposed an investment of $2.5 million
           dollars. That was reduced to $2.25 million.  I am not comfortable
           with that sort of behavior, but I suppose it is something that
           businessmen need to do and let it pass.  I then discovered that
           agreeing to the investment accelerated the payment of taxes by
           $300 thousand dollars. Certainly this is merely an acceleration
           but it does draw down our immediate cash availability and made me
           quite unhappy.  Finally, the absurd legal fees of the
           negotiations--where I actually have to pay for Bruce's clumsy
           attempts to undermine the process--draws it down another $200
           thousand.  We have gone from $2.5 million for 10 percent of the
           company to an effective investment of perhaps $1.75 million for
           the same ten percent.  Frankly, the deal has become a lot less
           attractive to me.  I understand that Shea is investing the $2.25
           million, but I have to look at it in terms of what we get, not
           what he has put in. 

           Still, the deal remained feasible.  What pushed it out of the
           realm of possibility was the services agreement.  In that
           agreement, Stratfor agrees to provide StraCap with an unspecified
           and unlimited intelligence service in support of StratCap. 
           Neither Shea nor I have any real idea what the amount will be.  We
           are at the very beginning of understanding what will be required. 
           In effect, under this agreement, Stratfor is writing a blank check
           to StratCap that is not even limited by the amount investment. 
           Stratfor's liability is limited only by StratCap's needs, which
           are unknown and inherently unknowable at this point. 

           I can imagine easily a scenario in which StratCap's demands
           outstrips Stratfor's means to the point that StratCap would hold
           Stratfor in default and even push it into bankruptcy with StratCap
           the major creditor.  Nothing in the course of the negotiations
           gives me the slightest hope that Bruce would not do this in a
           heart beat and that Shea wouldn't let him.  I regard the proposed
           service agreement as a threat to the survival of Stratfor as a
           company under Don and my control. 

           Let me remind everyone that my interest in the deal was to build
           Stratfor publishing and to participate in StratCap.  Under this
           agreement, all money will have to be tasked to StratCap, since
           Stratfor has incurred an unlimited liability.  Capping the
           liability is not in my interest either.  I would not have accepted
           Shea's investment simply for Stratfor. We have avoided outside
           investment at all costs. It was the possibility of StratCap that
           interested me.  A capped amount invested in supporting StratCap
           increases the likelihood of failure and I have no intention of
           being the Chairman of a failed investment fund.  StratCap has to
           be fully funded for intelligence operations and Shea's investment
           in Stratfor cannot be the sole and unlimited source of that
           funding.

           I don't know what it will cost to support StratCap.  But it is our
           mutual ignorance of that, and my insistence that StratCap have
           every chance to be successful and that Stratfor use the money to
           grow its publishing business that makes the current proposal
           inconceivable.  It leaves Stratfor without investment capital for
           its publishing business until and if we learn whether the amount
           required is within its needs--and disastrous consequences if the
           needs are being Stratfor's resources. An artificial cap endangers
           StratCap and eliminates my interest in investment. I will not be
           the public image of StratCap, ridiculed for the failure of an
           enterprise that was built to fail.

           My understanding with Shea was that we would--as is the only
           option--collegially attack these problems with a commitment of
           both of us to making both companies work. I feel that Shea has
           broken his agreement in two ways.  First, he has attempted to
           create business obligations for Stratfor that are open ended and
           potentially disastrous.  Second, he has done so without
           guaranteeing the success of StratCap given the fact that we don't
           know what it will take.  The premature and thoughtless
           negotiations that have taken place violate common sense, but do
           create a situation in which StratCap can overwhelm Stratfor.
           Obviously, I won't permit this.

           In addition, all that has happened has violated the fundamental
           principles I laid out at the beginning.  These were both
           non-negotiable and and consistently violated both in the
           negotiating process and in the final business arrangements.  We
           are in the absurd position where I am to be Chairman of a company
           with an adversarial relationship with a company I am CEO of, while
           Shea is President of a company that is an adversary of a company
           on whose board he serves.  Sheer madness.

           From where I sit, this deal is dead. Given the time, effort and
           hopes that were devoted to this, I am prepared for a final
           discussion confined to Shea, Don and myself. the issue is two
           fold.  First, how do we resurrect a relationship in which my
           existential requirements are respected.  Second how do we align
           the interests of the two companies.  I have to confess that I am
           not optimistic but I will have this discussion if Shea wishes.

           I am leaving for Indonesia tomorrow evening and at that time
           moving on with my life.  I will have things to explain in the
           company where we have proceeded to implement our obligations to
           StratCap in good faith.  The only thing more painful that aborted
           an enterprise that was already underway, would be implementing it
           in the current terms and atmosphere.  That will not happen.

           George

           --

           George Friedman

           Founder and CEO

           STRATFOR

           221 West 6th Street

           Suite 400

           Austin, Texas 78701

            

           Phone: 512-744-4319

           Fax: 512-744-4334

            
","2011-07-25 15:11:11",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/400961_fw-failure-of-stratfor-stratcap-deal-.html","sf@feldhauslaw.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,kuykendall@stratfor.com",""
401468,"noble energy
","   As I'm sure you are aware, Noble energy is trying to drill in Greek Cyprus
   waters, and Turkey is raising hell over it. Basically, because they can
   since Greece is a mess right now anyway.  The move to deploy frigates
   seems to be part of this.

   I was just talking to David (the bf), whose best friend's dad is the head
   of Noble Energy. They were all having dinner in houston and the dad was
   talking about how the Turks are creating a nightmare for them with this
   whole warships thing. David was telling him about what I do, and how we do
   a lot of work with Turkey, and the dad wants to talk to me about this.
   Might turn into a business opportunity, you never know. But this family
   has houses all over the world, the dad speaks 10 languages, living in
   Cyprus right now, used to be in Quito and before that, Vietnam, has all
   kinds of crazy connections and crazy dealings with shady people. I might
   be able to learn some interesting things from him. And maybe we could help
   them understand what the Turks are actually going to do...

   Background on the issue that Emre wrote up earlier-

   This is more of a summary of the current situation and questions that
   arise from it. Please feel free to add your comments/questions before I
   tap sources.

   Below is the area where American Noble Energy is supposed to start
   exploratory oil and natural gas drillings in early October according to
   the right granted by Greek Cyprus in 2008. (Attention: Leviathan and Tamar
   are Israeli wells, not Cyprus)

   As far as energy matters are concerned, there is not much to say. Since no
   exploration took place yet, there is no estimation of reserves that would
   tells us how far Cyprus would be willing to push the deal. However, given
   the gigantic reserves found in Israeli offshore fields, ita**s very
   possible that the same would be the case for Cyprus. At least this is the
   hope of Greek Cyprus.

   As you know, Turkish Cyprus is only recognized by Turkey, whereas Greek
   Cyprus is the official government of the entire island and a member of the
   EU, which is not recognized by Turkey. So, this is an issue of national
   sovereignty more than energy production, though Turkey does not want to
   lose energy reserves as well.

   What has happened so far;

   Greek Cyprus side:

   - Greek Cyprus FM sought political support in Israel. They keep saying
   that Israel supports them, but I really doubt that Israel would get
   involved in this controversy for Greek Cyprus while it is having its a)
   own offshore reserves dispute with Lebanon b) troubles with Turkey.

   - Greece is mostly quiet, for a good reason. Athens gives support to
   Cyprus, though only rhetorical. I also have not seen any important
   statement from the EU.

   - Greek Cyprus says it will block energy chapter of Turkey/EU membership
   negotiations. Greek Cyprus has already blocked eight chapters anyway and
   membership talks are in coma. So, this threat does not mean anything for
   Turkey. Even if it did, EU members have their own individual energy
   dealings with Turkey.

   - No statement from Noble Energy yet, neither from the US government.

   Overall, Greek Cyprus has nothing that can stop Turkey.

   Turkey side:

   - Turkey says TPAO will start drillings there as well. I am not sure if
   TPAO is able to do that on its own. Fourth well in the Black Sea oil
   exploration project is operated by TPAO, but the platform is owned by
   Petrobras. (to be replaced by ExxonMobil). So, this does not look very
   credible to me.

   - Most significant tool is, though, Turkeya**s decision to put military
   options on the table to be used in eastern Med, seemingly against Israel.
   Turkey never said it would use it against Cyprus, but if Turkey considers
   eastern Med as its turf that it is ready to defend militarily, there is
   not so much that Greek Cyprus can do to prevent it. This also increases
   risks for Noble Energy when it comes to investment decisions.

   - Turkish MFA also said today that Turkey and Turkish Cyprus agreed to
   conclude a continental shelf delimitation agreement should the Greek
   Cypriot administration proceed with offshore drilling activities in the
   south of the island. Meaningless political/legal move.

   Questions moving forward:

   Noble Energy: What are the plans of Noble Energy? Are they planning to
   move on with the deal? If so, how and when? Is there Noble Energy's
   platform off Cyprus? 

   Turkey: Is Turkey floating the idea of using the military threat against
   Cyprus? Can TPAO drill in southern Cyprus?

   Cyprus: What are the options of Greek Cyprus? What can they do to move on?

    

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-16 04:35:49",1,"2012-03-01 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/401468_noble-energy-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com",""
401899,"Bhopal update - 08-09-11 Media #1
","   Scot, Tomm,

   As you've no doubt seen, BBC News published an updated article on the
   Bhopal activist response to the Olympic stadium sponsorship, this time
   quoting Satinath Sarangi. He called Dow's sponsorship a \"dance on the
   graves of Bhopal gas victims\" and promised protests in \"Bhopal, Delhi and
   London, if necessary.\"

   The article noted former Olympic gold medal hockey player Aslam Sher Khan
   is calling for India to boycott the London games over the sponsorship.

   Dow's position on Bhopal and the London games, as well as the London
   Olympic Committee statement regarding the sponsorship were also included.

   The article has been shared on social media directly from the BBC News
   website 187 times, so far. There are no comments posted on the news page.

   The reporter is Shahzeb Jillani.

   http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-14443516

   India's Environment News Service reported Chemicals and Fertilizers
   Minister Srikant Kumar Jena told Parliament the DRDO will dispose of the
   Bhopal factory waste by incineration at the Borkhedi facility near Nagpur.
   The article cited the NEERI report assessing the environmental situation
   at the defunct factory, which credited contamination of soil and
   groundwater to chemical disposal from 1969 to 1984, and not to the 1984
   gas accident. There was no mention of the court or regulatory issues
   regarding the disposal.

   http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/aug2011/2011-08-08-01.html

   IBNS reported the Bhopal NGOs burnt an effigy representing \"Corruption in
   medical care, rehabilitation and compensation disbursement\" in solidarity
   with Anna Hazare's opposition to the GoI's Jan Lokpal anti-corruption
   bill. The Bhopal protest took place in front of the former UCIL factory.
   In Mumbai, Hazare burnt copies of the proposed legislation. This issue
   does not appear to involve action against Dow.

   http://www.indiablooms.com/NewsDetailsPage/newsDetails090811k.php

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-08-09 15:06:36",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/401899_bhopal-update-08-09-11-media-1-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
402117,"Bhopal update - 04-05-11 PM
","   Scot, Tomm,

   Documentary distributor MercuryMedia posted a press release announcing the
   films it will be offering at MIPTV in Cannes, France this week, including
   the Bhopali film.

   http://www.mercurymedia.org/news/mercury-announce-fresh-slate-and-new-sales-ahead-of-miptv/

   -       Documentary media RealScreen picked up the press statement.

   http://realscreen.com/2011/04/01/mercurymedia-heads-to-cannes-with-sales-kissinger/

   In India, PTI reported on MS Ahluwalia holding a press conference about a
   project to preserve tiger habitat. When asked about the WikiLeaks cables,
   he said the content indicating \"he took sides with Dow Chemicals on the
   issue of removing hazardous waste from the Union Carbide Plant\" was
   \"totally wrong.\" He added that the \"matter is in the court and with the
   group of ministers for a decision.\"

   http://governancenow.com/news/regular-story/plan-panel-pledges-more-project-tiger

   In activist communication, Leonid Chindelevitch posted at mid-day Monday
   on the Act-MA message board an invitation to the screening of the Bhopali
   film at Tufts University that evening. There has been no indication yet
   how that event was attended.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-04-05 22:54:06",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/402117_bhopal-update-04-05-11-pm-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
402168,"Re: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks
","   We probably asked the ASIS to monitor Wiki coms and email, after the
   soldier from Potomac was nabbed. So, its reasonable to assume we probably
   already know who has done it.

   The delay could be figuring out how to declassify and use the Aussie intel
   on Wiki.

   Wiki holding on to other docs is to protect their sources.

   The owner is a peacenik. He needs his head dunked in a full toilet bowl at
   Gitmo.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Colby Martin <colby.martin@stratfor.com>
   Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2010 13:47:38 -0500 (CDT)
   To: <burton@stratfor.com>; CT AOR<ct@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks

 Sorry if this has been seen but it is a good article and goes with what we are
                                    saying.

                       WikiLeaks' Afghan Documents and Me

  http://motherjones.com/mojo/2010/07/wikileaks-afghan-documents-and-me-source

   a** By Adam Weinstein

   | Sun Jul. 25, 2010 10:28 PM PDT

   a** Flickr/ Jabber1990 (Creative Commons)

   [For more on the WikiLeaks Afghan document dump, read posts by Kevin Drum
   here and senior editor Dave Gilson here.]

   Here's a cliche for you: A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. And
   here's a fact: A little knowledge is precisely what Julian Assange and his
   WikiLeaks cohorts have given us in the \"Afghan War Diary.\" The intimation
   by Assange (and the media outlets he cherry-picked to preview the data) is
   that these are the Pentagon Papers of the Afghan war. Certainly there are
   a few eyebrow-raising details in the bunch, as Mark Mazzetti, Chris
   Chivers & Co. at the New York Times point out. But in truth, there's not
   much there. I know, because I've seen many of these reports beforea**at
   least, thousands of similar ones from Iraq, when I was a contractor there
   last year.

   I haven't been through everything yet, but most of what you see on
   WikiLeaks are military SIGACTS (significant activity reports). These are
   theoretically accessible by anyone in Iraq, Afghanistan, or the Tampa,
   Florida-based US Central Commanda**soldiers and contractorsa**who have
   access to the military's most basic intranet for sensitive data, the
   Secret Internet Protocol Router Network (SIPRNet). Literally thousands of
   people in hundreds of locations could read them, and any one of them could
   be the source for WikiLeaks' data. I regularly went through the daily
   SIGACT reports in Iraq, not because my job required it, but because my
   colleagues and I were curious. We heard mortars or car bombs explode in
   the distance at night, and we couldn't help but wonder: What the hell was
   that? Every time a US unit engaged the enemy, encountered munitions, saw
   or heard something go boom, caught a criminal, or located a weapons cache,
   a report was filed. So, each morning when I entered my office on Camp
   Victory, I fired up my SIPR terminal and checked the SIGACTS for
   interesting stuff. 

   The first time I did it, my pupils dilated. A vein in my throat warmed.
   The reporter in me did backflips. I was about to breathe pure oxygen.

   By day three or four, I was bored to tears. Here's what I learned:

   Some SIGACTS are more detailed than others; most are mundane. Only a few
   in WikiLeaks' bunch fall in the former category. For example, an October
   2009 missive provides harrowing details of a battle in which Combat
   Outpost Keating was overrun by Taliban fighters; Chivers at the NYT did an
   amazing job of reconstructing that terrible massacre, in which eight US
   soldiers died and 23 were wounded. But most SIGACTS are much more
   routine-sounding; for instance, the Battle of Wanat on July 13, 2008, was
   actually the deadliest battle of the war for US forces so far, and a
   source of major controversy. Yet its secret report sounds dull by
   comparison.

   Probably the most significant thing about the SIGACTS is that they're
   counted and graphed by the military as a metric of how we're doing, and
   the obvious thing about the Afghan War Diary is that there are tons more
   entries for recent months in 2008 and 2009 than there were in previous
   months through the war. That's also a function of numbers of US and
   coalition forces; just as crime goes up when you put more cops on the
   street, SIGACTS probably should go up when you put more boots on the
   ground. And bear in mind, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison; more
   SIGACTS may mean more good things, like arrests and caches found, rather
   than civilian and coalition casualties. Even so, the most recent numbers
   are pretty sobering.

   There are two categories of data in the WikiLeaks files that could be
   really interestinga**and could cause some serious repercussions. One is
   the military's FRAGOs, fragmentary orders. These are strategic directives
   from headquarter to junior military commands in the field, and they cover
   pretty much everythinga**from orders on how to deal with detainees to an
   on-base visit by the wrestling stars of WWE. WikiLeaks provides a log of
   these FRAGOs, but doesn't have the orders themselves. It's a great
   bibliographic resource for reporters with time on their hands to file a
   FOIA request for the actual orders. But in the meantime, it's not much by
   itself.

   The other interesting data are notes from what the military calls
   KLEsa**key leader engagements. Military officers, as well as officials
   from State, USAID, and other agencies regularly meet with important
   players in a war zone to get their take on the situation. Often they're
   dull and tell the interviewers little they didn't already know; sometimes,
   though, they give insight to \"atmospherics\"a**how Afghan locals feel about
   US forces or the Taliban. Many of these key leaders take their lives into
   their hands; from my experience in Iraq, I know that numerous Shiites,
   Sunnis and Kurds with high standing among their tribesa**and among our
   enemiesa**took time to brief US officials, often to dish dirt on crooked
   or violent elements in their vicinity. If they were ever outed as
   collaborators with American forces, they'd be as good as dead. And
   Wikileaks has 16 pages of secret military KLEs with individuals and groups
   in Afghanistan, spanning six years. No names are redacted. In this case,
   what retired general James Jones, the White House national security
   adviser, said yesterday is correct: WL is putting some lives at serious
   risk with that particular data dump.

   I'll keep running through to see if there's anything else of importance.
   But most of this information is tactical nuts and bolts, devoid of
   context, and largely useless for a war narrative; what would be far more
   valuable than this stuff is the strategic/political data: military info
   that's TOP SECRET or above, which I haven't seen yet; or stuff from the
   State Department or provincial reconstruction teams (PRTs). (One
   interesting item: A November 2006 report on the WL site suggests that at
   least one PRTa**a team of anthropologists, political and developmental
   specialists, and soldiers sent out to assist local Afghans in rebuilding
   their nationa**engaged in propaganda, feeding broadcast information to
   local radio stations. It's not exactly damning, but it doesn't quite jibe
   with the PRTs' benevolent mission statement, either.)

   By and large, like most of the stunts pulled by Assange, this one's long
   on heat and short on light, nothing you didn't already know if you were
   paying attention to our wars. (And to the extent that you weren't, well, I
   guess the leak is on the whole a good thing.) For the best color
   commentary on this document dump, check out the very succinct analysis of
   Abu Muqawama at the Center for a New American Security. He pretty much
   says it all.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: \"CT AOR\" <ct@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, July 26, 2010 1:23:16 PM
   Subject: Re: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks

   Stick and I could find the suspect in 3 days.

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
   Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2010 12:47:07
   To: CT AOR<ct@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks

   The first is an excerpt from an intelligence summary probably sent to
   thousands; the second appears to be a DIA report, but could also be a
   retransmitted CIA document possibly through DIA reports, based on the
   the way the names are bracketed w/the ((.  The brackets around the names
   goes back to the old days, when this denoted that the names should be
   cataloged on index cards by the ladies back home.

   Matthew Powers wrote
   > Attached are the only two reports that I have been able to find so far
   > that deal with Gul.  These are both classified secret.  I am still
   > trying to figure out who would have produced them, but wanted to post
   > them in case someone here would know.
   >
   > MAGNETIC IED THREAT IN KABUL
   > Organization(s) Involved: OPPOSING MILITANT FORCES
   > 31 DEC 2006, CJTF-76 INTSUM, NIS
   > 20061231-RC-C G2 -N/I S
   > IED THREAT WARN - RC-C, KABUL, SIED & RCIED (MAGNETIC MINES), 30 DEC - 1
   > JAN  07
   > Importance: High
   > Classification: NATO/ISAF SECRET
   > FYI.  Extract from:
   > CJTF-76 Air Component Coordination Element (ACCE)
   > CJTF-76 Air Support Operations Center (ASOC)
   > Bagram Airfield, Afghanistan
   > INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
   > 30 Dec 06
   > (290300Z Dec 06 - 300259Z Dec 06)
   > Country-Wide Threats:
   > (N/I R) On approximately 17 December 2006, following a meeting between
   > senior members of the TALIBAN leadership in NOWSHAHRA, Pakistan
   > (GEOCOORD NOT AVAILABLE), which included General Hamid GUL, the former
   > Chief of Inter-Services Intelligence  (ISI) Directorate of Pakistan.
   > During this meeting GUL claimed he dispatched three unidentified
   > individuals to KABUL City (GEOCOORD: 42S WD 15172 19937) to carry out
   > IED attacks during the Eid celebration.  GUL instructed two of the
   > individuals to plant IEDs along the roads frequently utilized by
   > Government of Afghanistan (GOA) and ISAF vehicles.  The third individual
   > is to carry out a suicide attack utilizing a suicide vest against GOA or
   > ISAF entities.  Reportedly GULs final comment to the three
   > individuals was make the snow warm in KABUL, basically telling them to
   > set KABUL aflame.
   > (N/I R) The three individuals traveled from SOROBI (GEOCOORD: 42S WD
   > 6817430407), SOROBI District KABUL Province to their current location in
   > the MUSAYI District, KABUL Province, (GEOCOORD NOT AVAILABLE) NFI.  The
   > two individuals tasked with planting the IEDs will employ two types of
   > IEDs, these being remotely detonated IEDs and a supposedly new Chinese
   > made magnetic mine.  The three individuals tasked with conducting these
   > attacks will be assisted in entering KABUL City by a group of five
   > unidentified individuals, described as a KABUL Province criminal gang
   > that is associated with General AMANULLAH GOUZAR, the current KABUL City
   > Chief of Police.
   > (N/I R) The Chinese made magnetic mines were described as a metal plate
   > with a magnet attached to one side and the explosives to the other.  The
   > mines are to be planted on roads frequently used by ISAF and GOA forces
   > throughout KABUL, utilizing the snow as camouflage.  Reportedly, once a
   > vehicle drives over the camouflaged plated mine the magnetic side will
   > attach itself to the passing vehicle.  As the vehicle departs the area
   > one of the unidentified individuals acting as a spotter will contact the
   > second individual, who will be located on higher ground overlooking the
   > road, via a cellular phone notifying him the package was picked up.  In
   > addition, the spotter will also relay the vehicle description to include
   > its license plate number or vehicle description.  Once the second
   > individual receives this information and observes the vehicle he will
   > then remotely detonate the mine.  GUL reportedly has received
   > approximately 50 of these mines in order for them to carry out their
   > operation.
   >
   >
   >
   >
   >
   >
   > INS MEET TO PLAN AN SVBIED ATTACK
   > Organization(s) Involved: FOREIGN FIGHTERS,INTER-SERVICES INTELLIGENCE
   > DIRECTORATE,OPPOSING MILITANT FORCES
   > 14 JAN 2009, TF CASTLE INTSUM 4311, NSI
   >
   > (SECRET//REL TO USA, ISAF, NATO) AAF MOVE BLUE JINGLE TRUCK VBIED TO
   > SAROBI DISTRICT
   >
   > ON 5 JANUARY 2009, FROM 2100 TO 2300 HOURS LOCAL TIME, AAF COMMANDERS
   > ((NAZIR)), ((HALLIMULLAH)), ((MALANG)) BASED IN WANA, SOUTH WAZIRISTAN
   > AGENCY (SWA), FEDERALLY ADMINISTERED TRIBAL AREAS (FATA), PAKISTAN, HELD
   > A MEETING TO DISCUSS THEIR PLANS TO AVENGE THE DEATH OF ZAMARAI.  THE
   > MEETING WAS CONDUCTED AT THE RESIDENCE OF HAJI ((YACOUB)) IN WANA.  ALSO
   > IN ATTENDANCE WERE THREE UNIDENTIFIED OLDER ARAB MALES, WHO WERE
   > CONSIDERED IMPORTANT.  (SOURCE COMMENT:  THE ARABS WERE BELIEVED TO BE
   > IMPORTANT BECAUSE THEY HAD A LARGE SECURITY CONTINGENT WITH THEM.) AT
   > LEAST ONE OF THE THREE UNIDENTIFIED ARABS IN ATTENDANCE WAS PROFICIENT
   > IN THE PASHTUN LANGUAGE AND THE ARABS WERE ACCOMPANIED BY APPROXIMATELY
   > 20 ARAB BODYGUARDS.  ((HAMID GUL)), A FORMER MEMBER OF PAKISTAN'S
   > INTER-SERVICES INTELLIGENCE (ISI), WAS IN ATTENDANCE AT THE MEETING
   > ALSO.  HAMID GUL WAS DESCRIBED AS BEING AN OLDER MAN AND A VERY
   > IMPORTANT PERSON FROM ISI.  (COMMENT:  HAMID GUL WAS DIRECTOR GENERAL OF
   > ISI FROM 1987-1989 AND, ACCORDING TO ISI, HAS NOT BEEN AN OFFICIAL WITH
   > ISI SINCE THAT TIME.  IT WAS NOT KNOWN WHETHER HAMID GUL WAS ACTING WITH
   > THE KNOWLEDGE OR CONSENT OF ISI, OR WHETHER ANY PORTIONS OF ISI WERE
   > AWARE OF HIS ACTIVITIES.)
   > THE MEETING ATTENDEES WERE SADDENED BY THE NEWS OF ZAMARAI'S DEATH AND
   > DISCUSSED PLANS TO COMPLETE ZAMARAI'S LAST MISSION BY FACILITATING THE
   > MOVEMENT OF A SUICIDE VEHICLE-BORNE IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICE (SVBIED)
   > FROM PAKISTAN TO AFGHANISTAN THROUGH THE KHAN PASS, VARIANT:  KHAND
   > PASS.  (COMMENT:  THE KHAN PASS IS LOCATED IN SWA AND HAS BEEN
   > FREQUENTLY USED BY AAF AND ARAB FORCES IN THE PAST.)  THE SVBIED WAS
   > DESCRIBED AS A DARK BLUE MAZDA JINGA TRUCK WITH A GRAYISH WHITE HOOD.
   > AS OF 3 JANUARY, THE SVBIED WAS LOCATED IN AZAM WARSAK, SWA.  DURING THE
   > MEETING, THE ATTENDEES FORMULATED THE PLAN TO MOVE THE SVBIED, DRIVEN BY
   > AN UNIDENTIFIED ARAB, ON 10 JANUARY 2009 THROUGH THE KHAN PASS.  THE
   > MILITANTS PLANNED TO TARGET SAROBI, AFGHANISTAN, WITH THE SVBIED.
   > (COMMENT: SAROBI IS LIKELY A REFERENCE TO SAROBI DISTRICT, PAKTIKA
   > PROVINCE.) HAMID GUL ENCOURAGED THE AAF LEADERS TO FOCUS THEIR OPERATION
   > INSIDE OF AFGHANISTAN IN EXCHANGE FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN'S
   > SECURITY FORCES TURNING A BLIND EYE TO THE PRESENCE OF AAF COMMANDERS
   > AND FIGHTERS IN PAKISTAN (NFI).  ADDITIONALLY, THE AAF LEADERS APPROVED
   > A PLAN TO SEND 50 ARAB AND 50 WAZIRI FIGHTERS TO GHAZNI PROVINCE,
   > AFGHANISTAN IN EARLY FEBRUARY 2009.  ACCORDING TO HAMID GUL, THE AERIAL
   > THREATS IN THE AREA WERE CONTROLLED FROM THE AIRPORT IN WANA.
   >
   >
   > scott stewart wrote:
   >>
   >> Thanks. Matt Powers from Research is working it too.
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >> *From:* ct-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:ct-bounces@stratfor.com] *On
   >> Behalf Of *Ryan Abbey
   >> *Sent:* Monday, July 26, 2010 1:26 PM
   >> *To:* CT AOR
   >> *Subject:* Re: [CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >> On it.
   >>
   >>
   ------------------------------------------------------------------------
   >>
   >> *From: *\"scott stewart\" <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>
   >> *To: *\"CT AOR\" <ct@stratfor.com>
   >> *Sent: *Monday, July 26, 2010 1:16:40 PM
   >> *Subject: *[CT] FW: Guidance on the leaks
   >>
   >> Ryan and Colby,
   >>
   >>
   >> Can you guys please look into this?
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >> *From:* scott stewart [mailto:scott.stewart@stratfor.com]
   >> *Sent:* Monday, July 26, 2010 1:15 PM
   >> *To:* 'Analyst List'
   >> *Cc:* 'CT AOR'
   >> *Subject:* RE: Guidance on the leaks
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >> Yes, it would be good to know where the information on Gul came from.
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >> Ia**ll get some people on it.
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >> *From:* analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   >> [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] *On Behalf Of *George Friedman
   >> *Sent:* Monday, July 26, 2010 1:09 PM
   >> *To:* analysts@stratfor.com
   >> *Subject:* Guidance on the leaks
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >> There was a huge amount of low level information in the leaks.  It was
   >> overwhelmingly low level tactical reports and trivia.
   >>
   >> There was one thing in them that wasn't.  That was the stuff that
   >> concerned ISI operations in Afghanistan as well as memos on
   >> conversations between senior U.S. officials and Pakistani officials.
   >> That stuff had much higher clearance and ought not have been in
   >> databases containing after-action reports by small units.  The ISI is
   >> technically friendly intelligence agency and the discussion of their
   >> covert operations in Afghanistan potentially reveals sources and
   >> methods that are tightly compartmentalized, if for no other reason
   >> than to keep the political fallout for a minimum.
   >>
   >> As in any intelligence dump, I'm not interested in 99 percent of the
   >> stuff.  It is this 1 percent that interests me for two reasons.
   >> First, it should not have resided in the same database as the other
   >> stuff.  Second, very few people should have clearance to both
   >> databases on a need to know basis. In other words, the person with
   >> access to the ISI file might have clearance to tactical combat
   >> reports, but normally he would be noticed accessing them.
   >>
   >> Regardless of classification, all systems have document tracking and
   >> basic usage warnings. If someone were to access all of these
   >> documents, he would be noticed.  So the issue is first, what was the
   >> ISI file doing mingled with tactical intelligence and who who would
   >> have the ability and need to access both, because at this level of
   >> usage, he would be noticed.
   >>
   >> In a case like this, you ignore the 99 percent.  You focus on the 1
   >> percent that shouldn't have been buried.
   >>
   >> I need someone to search what is available for information on ISI and
   >> Gul.  See what you can find.  I am going to hold the Weekly until this
   >> is done.
   >>
   >> --
   >>
   >> George Friedman
   >>
   >> Founder and CEO
   >>
   >> Stratfor
   >>
   >> 700 Lavaca Street
   >>
   >> Suite 900
   >>
   >> Austin, Texas 78701
   >>
   >>  
   >>
   >> Phone  512-744-4319
   >>
   >> Fax  512-744-4334
   >>
   >>
   >>
   >> --
   >> Ryan Abbey
   >> Tactical Intern
   >> Stratfor
   >> ryan.abbey@stratfor.com
   >>
   >
   > --
   > Matthew Powers
   > STRATFOR Research ADP
   > Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
   >
","2010-07-26 20:52:03",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/402168_re-ct-fw-guidance-on-the-leaks-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,ct@stratfor.com,colby.martin@stratfor.com",""
403121,"Bhopal update - 09-27-11 media
","   Scot, Tomm,

   Media items today are on the Yes Men and Diane Wilson.

   -       A stock trader calling himself Alessio Rastani told BBC news
   anchors \"Goldman Sachs rules the world\" and he dreams of the next
   recession as an opportunity to make money. Someone decided he looks like
   Andy Bichlbaum (there is some resemblance) and asked if Rastani is the
   same person who played Jude Finisterra in the 1984 BBC/Bhopal hoax. While
   Rastani is clearly not Bichlbaum, the story is gaining traction and the
   1984 video clip of \"Finisterra\" is being reposted on numerous websites,
   including the Washington Post.

     According to the Post, the Yes Men issued a statement confirming Rastani
     is not a Yes Man, but \"\"He's a real trader who is, for one reason or
     another, being more honest than usual.\" Neither the Yes Men or Yes Lab
     websites are currently available to confirm the statement.

   http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/blogpost/post/alessio-rastani-trader--or-prankster--tells-bbc-market-is-toast-video/2011/09/27/gIQAAber1K_blog.html

   -       Iowa's Heartland Connection announced Diane Wilson will appear in
   Fairfield, IA on Oct. 5 at the Jefferson County Farmers & Neighbors, Inc.
   annual meeting \"Corporate Accountability: One Woman's Struggle and
   Triumph.\" The preview article is actually a quite good summary of Wilson's
   activism. Her Bhopal activism and pursuit of Warren Anderson are included
   in the article but are not the main focus. Event sponsors are The Leopold
   Group Sierra Club, Sustainable Living Coalition, KRUU-FM, and Radish
   Magazine.

   http://www.heartlandconnection.com/news/story.aspx?id=667695

   There is nothing new to report from the activist sources at this time.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-09-27 17:18:25",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/403121_bhopal-update-09-27-11-media-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
403126,"Yes Men monitoring 11-18-11
","","2011-11-18 20:40:34",1,"2012-02-27 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/403126_yes-men-monitoring-11-18-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","mkolleth@dow.com,sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com","attach/36/36542_Social media 11-12 to 11-18-11 YM FB.pdf
attach/36/36543_Activist info 11-10-11 YM Bonanno - Stockholm.pdf
attach/36/36544_Social media 11-12 to 11-18-11 YM Twitter.pdf
attach/36/36545_Activist info 11-14-11 Yes Lab - APEC.pdf
attach/36/36546_Activist info 11-16-11 YL - OWS day of action.pdf"
403291,"DOW CONFIDENTIAL: Bhopal Monitoring Report (no Friday report) Wednesday,
 November 23, 2011
","Contact AIM for more Information                                                                                                                                       
Significant Activist Activity                                                                                                                                          
 11/22 Early Day Motion: 2 new signers, 19 total                                                                                                                       
 Commission on Sustainable London 2012: Interim statement regarding Dow's sponsorship                                                                                  
 Blog: T Jeory on political opposition to Dow sponsorship                                                                                                              
 11/21 PANNA press release on PPT: videos and updates wil be available from sessions                                                                                   
Media                                                                                                                                                                  
 11/21 C&EN: Dow Olympic sponsorship; GoI sees Liveris as \"too controversial\" for India-US CEO Forum                                                                   
 11/22 Labour Party: T. Jowell asks Sustainability Commission to release documents, decisions on Dow and Bhopal                                                        
 11/20 Economic Times: ICJB sees opportunity to \"get Dow on record as an interested party\"; UK MPs playing politics with sponsorship                                   
 11/19 Asian Age: Open letter to London mayoral candidate claims Boris Johnson will loose Asian votes over Dow sponsorship                                             
 11/22 Guardian blog: Discussion on Asian Age letter and Livingstone's response                                                                                        
 11/23 Guardian: Report on T. Jowell press release asking for Dow documents from Sustainability Commission                                                             
 11/23 Guardian: Coe again defended LOCOG decision on Dow as a sponsor                                                                                                 
 11/23 PTI, IANS: MP CM Chouhan to GoI Sports Min: protest Dow sponsorship or boycott Olympics                                                                         
 11/23 IBNS: T. Jowell Labour party press release                                                                                                                      
 11/21 Hackney Gazette: MP Diane Abbott slammed Olympic corporate sponsorships; credited Bhopal deaths to Dow                                                          
 11/22 Around The Rings: Reported on MP Abbott's criticisms of coporate sponsorships for Olympics                                                                      
 11/20 Express on Sunday: Fabric stadium wrap panels tested; Coe and Gardiner quoted                                                                                   
 11/21 Daily Star: Columnist Sally Bercow - LOCOG should not have accepted Dow sponsorship                                                                             
Activist Activity                                                                                                                                                      
 Petition: 1080 signatures                                                                                                                                             
 Bhopali film screenings: Univ. of Pittsburgh; Frontline Club in London; IDFA                                                                                          
 Website updates: ICJB: Rail Roko instructions; SfB - change.org petition                                                                                              
 11/28 UW-Madison \"Slow Food for Bhopal\" fundraiser                                                                                                                    
 Blogs: Sporting News - Olympics activism; Jarvis - final post from Bhopal; Antinuclear blog from Australia                                                            
 Activist email: R. Dhingra - C&EN article; anti-Bayer activists - PPT case on bee deaths from Bayer pesticides                                                        
 Message boards: PAN press releases; Asian Age open letter                                                                                                             
 Social media: BMA; anti-Dow Facebook page; Jeory; Jowell; Gardiner; Labour Party                                                                                      
 Yes Men: OSW drum circle for Bloomberg                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/22 Early Day Motion: 2 new signers, 19 total                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/22 Two new signers, for a total of 19, have been added to Keith Vaz' Early Day Motion calling for Dow's sponsorship to be \"reconsidered\":                           
-  Fabian Hamilton,  Labour Party Leeds North East                                                                                                                     
-  Anas Sarwar,  Labour Party Glasgow Central                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
Commission on Sustainable London 2012: Interim statement regarding Dow's sponsorship                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                       
On 11/17 the Commission for a Sustainable London 2012 posted an \"interim statement\" regarding \"concerns\" about the stadium wrap sponsorship. The statement             
acknowledged \"a number of stakeholders, including Amnesty International and Labour Friends of India,\" expressed concern, and said the commission is \"speaking to key   
parties to fully understand the origins of these concerns.\" A further statement may be issued \"in due course\" if it is deemed appropriate and necessary.               
 - Several activist resources posted links to the statement. The Games Monitor watchdog blog posted the entire statement with the subject: \"2012 Sustainability        
notices problem with Dow!\"                                                                                                                                             
http://www.cslondon.org/2011/01/commissions-official-statement-on-olympic-stadium-bid-process/                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                       
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Blog: T Jeory on political opposition to Dow sponsorship                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/23 Ted Jeory, Express on Sunday's Whitehall editor, posted on his blog (attached) the stadium wrap sponsorship issue \"is starting to enter pretty serious political 
territory\" and listed three new developments:                                                                                                                          
\"1. Lib Dem deputy leader Simon Hughes has today signed up to the cross-[arty [sic] campaign to force Locog to reconsider its decision. he has added his name to a     
letter that has been sent to Lord Coe, which I'll detail below. Tory MP Priti Patel is also on board.                                                                  
\"2. Shadow Olympics Minister (& Olympics Board member) Tessa Jowell has stepped up her own rhetoric, a) by writing to the Chair of the Commission for a Sustainable    
London 2012 to demand disclosure of important tender documents around the deal; and b) asking for a meeting with Dow themselves.                                       
\"3. Locally, Olympic host borough Tower Hamlets Council is expected to lodge a formal objection with Locog about the deal after a vote next week.\"                     
 - Hughes and Patel signed on to the BMA/Amnesty/Friends of Labour letter, not Keith Vaz' Early Day Motion. Jeory included the text of the letter and the lists of MPs 
and Indian Olympians who have signed it.                                                                                                                               
 - Jeory provided the text of the Tower Hamlets Council's resolution to \"lodge a formal objection with Locog\" about the Dow sponsorship, and to join and assist the    
campaign calling for LOCOG to \"reverse its decision\" about the sponsorship. The council plans to write to Lord Coe, Secretary of State for Culture, Jeremy Hunt MP and 
LOCOG CEO Paul Deighton.                                                                                                                                               
 - Jeory promised \"There will be further political developments by the end of this week, watch this space.\"                                                            
 - Jeory also included the text of Tessa Jowell's press release reported below.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/21 PANNA press release on PPT: videos and updates wil be available from sessions                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                       
A press release from PANNA about the Permanent People's Tribunal quoted PANNA co-director Kathryn Gilje, cited the allegations of \"widespread and egregious human      
rights violations\" to be heard against the six agrichemical companies, and promised updates on and YouTube videos from the proceedings would be made available through 
the PAN website.                                                                                                                                                       
http://www.enewspf.com/latest-news/science-a-environmental/28937-prosecutors-issue-summons-to-the-six-largest-pesticide-manufacturers-for-human-rights-violations.html 
                                                                                                                                                                       
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11/21 C&EN: Dow Olympic sponsorship; GoI sees Liveris as \"too controversial\" for India-US CEO Forum                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                       
Chemical & Engineering News reporter Jean-Francios Tremblay posted a short article on the Olympic stadium controversy, saying \"Union Carbide acquisitions [sic]        
shadows Dow at Olympics.\"                                                                                                                                              
In addition to briefly relating the past week's events, the piece ends with a paragraph on the Indo-US CEO Forum, reporting from an unidentified Indian source the GoI 
\"is exerting pressure\" for Liveris to be \"removed\" from the forum because the GoI \"considers Liveris' membership in the forum \"too controversial.\" Dow was said to     
have denied that is the situation.                                                                                                                                     
http://cen.acs.org/articles/89/i47/Bhopals-Legacy.html                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                       
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11/22 Labour Party: T. Jowell asks Sustainability Commission to release documents, decisions on Dow and Bhopal                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                       
The UK Labour party's website posted a report that MP Tessa Jowell wrote to Shaun McCarthy, the Chair of the Commission for a Sustainable London 2012, inquiring       
whether the commission will release for public consumption:                                                                                                            
-        Information it received \"to determine Dow's commitment to sustainability\" for the London Games                                                                
-        Whether it received any information countering \"the information provided by Dow about their commitment to sustainability\"                                     
-        And whether the commission discussed the Bhopal issue, its relationship to Dow, \"and whether any decision was taken in relation to that.\"                     
The article reported Jowell asked requested a meeting with Dow, reiterated the three questions Jowell says must be answered:                                           
-        Is Dow's conduct since the 2001 UCC acquisition \"consistent with the Olympics sustainability goals?                                                           
-        Did LOCOG seek other input on Dow and the Bhopal issue?                                                                                                       
-        Is there a reputational risk to the 2012 Games in relation to the wrap sponsorship, even if Dow should win Bhopal-issue legal battles.                        
Jowell said: \"It's better that we have an unwrapped stadium, rather than a stadium wrapped in the continuing controversy of Dow Chemical's sponsorship.\"               
http://www.labour.org.uk/process-of-arriving-at-decisions-transparent,2011-11-22                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                       
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11/20 Economic Times: ICJB sees opportunity to \"get Dow on record as an interested party\"; UK MPs playing politics with sponsorship                                    
                                                                                                                                                                       
Economic Times published a report on the past week's events regarding Dow's Olympics sponsorship.                                                                      
 - Rachna Dhingra was cited to support the activist case. The article said: \"For Bhopal activists, it's not just an opportunity to embarass Dow, but also a chance to  
get Dow on record as an interested party.\" IIT Madras not allowing Dow to recruit is mentioned. Amnesty Int'l spokesperson Aloys Ligault indicated the activists want  
to meet with both Dow and LOCOG, but have not received a response to requests.                                                                                         
 - Scot Wheeler was quoted on Dow's position on Bhopal, its Olympic sponsorship and responsibilities, and UCC \"managing its own liabilities.\"                          
- According to unidentified UK politicians, Dow officials are expected in London next week to meet with MPs, LOCOG and activists. A LOCOG official said \"it is too     
late\" for the wrap deal to be cancelled.                                                                                                                               
- The article suggested some of the UK MPs support of the call for LOCOG to drop Dow is political, with Tessa Jowell possibly aiming to embarass London mayor Boris    
Johnson during an election year, and Louise Mensch seeking to advance her career. Anti-US sentiment stemming from \"harsh treatment\" of BP for the Gulf of Mexico oil   
spill is also thought to play a factor in the opposition to Dow.                                                                                                       
Economic Times' Sunday print edition included on the article on p10.                                                                                                   
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-company/corporate-trends/bhopal-stretches-dow-chemicals-london-curtain/articleshow/10795100.cms                       
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/19 Asian Age: Open letter to London mayoral candidate claims Boris Johnson will loose Asian votes over Dow sponsorship                                              
                                                                                                                                                                       
Asian Age published an open letter from Farrukh Dhondy to Ken Livingstone, a candidate for Mayor of London. Dhondy ridiculed the Olympic stadium wrap, criticized as   
\"hypocritical\" Dow's  \"sustainable\" characterization of the wrap, and mentioned the Indian athletes' petition to LOCOG objecting to Dow's sponsorship. He suggested    
Livingstone has some leverage in the election, as current mayor Boris Johnson has lost popularity due to decisions regarding the Games. Dhondi suggested since         
the Games will open 60 days after the election, \"A new mayor could tear down the 'wrap' or allow us Londoners to non-violently demonstrate against it.\"                
Dhondy is a British novelist and playwright of Parsi descent.                                                                                                          
http://www.asianage.com/columnists/something-s-rotten-city-london-041                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/22 Guardian blog: Discussion on Asian Age letter and Livingstone's response                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                       
A Guardian blog by Dave Hill discussed Farrukh Dhondy's open letter in Asian Age to London mayoral candidate Ken Livingstone. Hill described the Olympic stadium       
sponsorship \"controversy\" and statements by Sebastian Coe, Barry Gardiner, and Amnesty Int'l on the topic. He noted Tessa \"Jowell's concern has particular             
significance in that she sits on the Olympic Board alongside Coe, culture secretary Jeremy Hunt and one Boris Johnson.\"                                                
Hill asked Livingstone's office for a reaction to the open letter, and wrote:                                                                                          
\"Ken's concern is that we do not have a them-and-us Games where corporate interests override other considerations. There are concerns about Dow and the Olympic        
stadium and people will want to be reassured that Locog's clear ethical, sustainable and environmental criteria are being met so that we have a Games for everyone.    
\"I'm not sure how much of a \"yes\" that is, but it does seem to send a broader message about principles and inclusiveness - one I sense Ken might be delivering more    
frequently as next year's mayoral election draws nearer.\"                                                                                                              
Two readers commented on the blog post - one asked \"What was Tessa Jowell doing on the Olympic board when the deal was approved, then?\"                                
The other comment, from Rosalind Hardie, mentioned Dow's production of Napalm and Latin American banana workers seeking compensation for pesticide exposure as         
additional issues.                                                                                                                                                     
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/davehillblog/2011/nov/22/olympic-stadium-wrap-controversy-ken-livingstone?newsfeed=true                                             
                                                                                                                                                                       
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11/23 Guardian: Report on T. Jowell press release asking for Dow documents from Sustainability Commission                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                       
The Guardian reported on Tessa Jowell's open letter to the Sustainability commission wanting documents on the Dow sponsorship decision process. The article included   
comments from MP Barry Gardiner that Hughes and Khan supporting the campaign \"shows that momentum is building against Locog's decision,\" and \"Locog must reverse its   
decision now, before the London 2012 reputation is irrevcoverably [sic] damaged.\"                                                                                      
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/nov/22/tessa-jowell-olympic-sponsorship-dow?CMP=twt_gu                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/23 Guardian: Coe again defended LOCOG decision on Dow as a sponsor                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                       
The Guardian reported Lord Coe has again defended LOCOG's choice of Dow as the sponsor for the stadium wrap. This was in an article on football (soccer) as an         
appropriate sport for the Olympics, after a runner had alleged \"most athletes\" did not believe football should be included.                                            
On LOCOG's sponsorship decision, Coe said the committee is not \"out of step with public opinion on the issue: \"We always have a good feel for public opinion. We're a  
good listening organisation. Nobody would remotely suggest that the Bhopal disaster in 1984 was anything other than a human tragedy on an extraordinary scale.\"        
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/nov/23/football-london-2012-lord-coe?newsfeed=true                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                       
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11/23 PTI, IANS: MP CM Chouhan to GoI Sports Min: protest Dow sponsorship or boycott Olympics                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                       
PTI and IANS reported MP CM Chouhan has written to India's Sports Minister Ajay Maken calling for the GoI to \"lodge a strong protest\" against Dow's sponsorship of the 
Olympic stadium wrap or to consider boycotting the Games. Chouhan called the sponsorship \"inappropriate\" and suggested the money for the wrap \"would be far better     
spent in alleviating to some extent the misery suffered by the people of Bhopal.\"                                                                                      
PTI http://ibnlive.in.com/generalnewsfeed/news/consider-olympics-boycott-due-to-dow-link-mp-cm-to-govt/912845.html                                                     
IANS http://zeenews.india.com/sports/others/protest-dow-s-sponsorship-of-london-olympics-chouhan-urges-maken_732797.html                                               
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/23 IBNS: T. Jowell Labour party press release                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                       
India Blooms News Service (IBNS) picked up the Tessa Jowell press release from the UK Labour Party website and noted, \"in India on the other hand there is a situation 
where neither the Sports Minister or any MP in the Congress or the opposition has raised any objections to the issue of Dow sponsoring the Olympics.\"                  
The article cited Rachna Dhingra describing the ICJB petition opposing the sponsorship that was signed by the 22 former Olympians from India, and the several          
officials to whom it was addressed. The remainder of the article quoted from Jowell's press release.                                                                   
http://www.newkerala.com/news/2011/worldnews-112293.html                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                       
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11/21 Hackney Gazette: MP Diane Abbott slammed Olympic corporate sponsorships; credited Bhopal deaths to Dow                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                       
Hackney Gazette reporter Emma Bartholomew quoted MP Diane Abbott complaining about the \"[Olympic] sponsors associated with ill health and death,\" i.e. Coca-Cola,      
McDonald's and Dow. Of Dow, Abbot is reported to have said it \"was once responsible for killing 15,000 people\" from the Bhopal gas accident.                           
http://www.hackneygazette.co.uk/news/hackney_mp_diane_abbott_slams_dow_s_sponsorship_of_olympic_stadium_1_1131872                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                       
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11/22 Around The Rings: Reported on MP Abbott's criticisms of coporate sponsorships for Olympics                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                       
Around The Rings posted a brief article about MP Diane Abbott's railing against corporate sponsorships, as reported by the Hackney Gazette.                            
http://www.aroundtherings.com/articles/view.aspx?id=38580                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/20 Express on Sunday: Fabric stadium wrap panels tested; Coe and Gardiner quoted                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                       
Express on Sunday published another short item by Whitehall editor Ted Jeory, who said some test panels of the fabric stadium wrap were put on the venue last week. He 
quoted both MP Barry Gardiner and Lord Coe on their respective stances about the wrap and Dow's sponsorship.                                                           
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/284808/Fury-grows-over-2012-deal                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/21 Daily Star: Columnist Sally Bercow - LOCOG should not have accepted Dow sponsorship                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                       
UK tabloid media Daily Star published a commentary by columnist Sally Bercow discussing the broad issue of corporate sponsorship of the London Games. While admitting  
sponsorships are necessary to produce the Games, Bercow exclaimed \"the Olympic organisers should never have agreed to jump into bed with [Dow]. Some sponsorship deals 
just shouldn't be done.\"                                                                                                                                               
Bercow is the wife of House of Commons Speaker John Bercow.                                                                                                            
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/starsays/view/221641/A-word-from-our-sponsor/                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                       
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Petition: 1080 signatures                                                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                       
The Change.org petition currently has about 1080 signatures.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
Bhopali film screenings: Univ. of Pittsburgh; Frontline Club in London; IDFA                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                       
 Bhopali film screenings                                                                                                                                               
-        The Bhopali documentary was shown Saturday, 11/19 at the University of Pennsylvania, sponsored by AID and the South Asia Center                               
-        A Jan. 30, 2012 screening is scheduled at the Frontline Club in London, a supporter of independent media, with Indra Sinha and Tim Edwards to hold a Q&A. The 
Bhopali film Facebook page had previously listed a Nov. 30 screening at the Frontline Club. There is no mention of that date on the club website.                      
http://www.frontlineclub.com/events/                                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                       
The Bhopali film was scheduled for four screenings at the IDFA (Independent Documentary Film Festival Amsterdam) from 11/19 through 11/23. The film's page on the      
festival website shows it has received no votes and no updates during its run. IDFA is one of the major global markets for documentary sales and distribution.         
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
Website updates: ICJB: Rail Roko instructions; SfB - change.org petition                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/20 Bhopal.net added 2 new pages: one with instructions for participants of the Rail Roko protest on 12/3, and the other titled \"We are all being poisoned,\" with    
lists of pesticide residues said to have been found on fruits and vegetables in India.                                                                                 
 - The Rail Roko instructions were given in a drawing, which is attached. Participants are to gather groups of 15-20 adults and children, march on cue to railroad     
tracks and lie down in groups on the tracks.                                                                                                                           
The protest will be cancelled if the response from the GoI that was promised from the activists' meeting with the Chemical and Fertilizers ministry secretary is       
received before 12/3. A response to the NGOs' demands regarding the death and injury figures used in the compensation curative petition was promised in 10 days from   
the Nov. 3 meeting. No reports have been seen about the response.                                                                                                      
 - The Bhopal.net front page also shows a new image of Olympic rings with the label \"Bhopal olympics.\" The intent of the image is not clear.  Excerpted images and     
texts are attached.                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/19 The Students for Bhopal/ICJB North America website was updated with an image and short description of Lorraine Close's change.org petition and \"why it is        
important\" to sign.                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
11/28 UW-Madison \"Slow Food for Bhopal\" fundraiser                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                       
UWisconsin - Madison's Physcians for Social Responsibility chapter is holding a \"Slow Food for Bhopal\" dinner and Bhangra dance performance on Monday, Nov. 28. The    
event was spearheaded by Jasmine Wiley, a med student who spent a month \"working in medical clinics in Bhopal.\" Drs. Ann Behrmann, a pediatrician, and Lalita du       
Perron, PhD organized the trip. The dinner event description discusses the Chingari Trust as the beneficiary of funds raised.                                          
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
Blogs: Sporting News - Olympics activism; Jarvis - final post from Bhopal; Antinuclear blog from Australia                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                       
UK Sporting News blogger/reporter Linus Fernandes posted an update on the Dow Olympic sponsorship and the Bhopal issue. Fernandes had written on the topic in August   
soon after the wrap sponsorship was announced. The current assessment called the Amnesty International letter to Lord Coe \"the only progress on the matter.            
Prefacing excerpts from the Amnesty communication, Fernandes introduced the wrap sponsorship topic, saying \"Dow fail [sic] to recognize their liability towards the    
victims of the 1984 Bhopal gas tragedy.\" He also noted \"a letter\" to PM Singh \"has yet to be responded to. Inertia reigns.\"                                            
Fernandes mentioned Amnesty had previously protested Dow's Live Earth Run for Water sponsorship, and brought up groundwater contamination in the Bhopal factory        
vicinity.                                                                                                                                                              
He ended by bringing up BMA volunteer Lorraine Close's change.org petition and asking \"Can any good come from the above petition? More importantly, can any bad?\"      
                                                                                                                                                                       
Sambhavna volunteer therapist Ian Jarvis wrote a final diary installment on his blog as he prepared to leave. Among other topics, Jarvis mentioned preparations for    
the Rail Roko protest on 12/3. He seemed somewhat incredulous at the lengths to which the activists are willing to go, but complimented their enthusiasm for the       
event.                                                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                       
An Australian blog titled \"Antinuclear\" posted an open letter from Fr. Xavier Pinto in Goa to Australian PM Julia Gillard asking, \"Please don't sell uranium to        
India.\" The post's introduction cited the Bhopal gas tragedy, saying \"India has enough trouble on this front.\"                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                       
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Activist email: R. Dhingra - C&EN article; anti-Bayer activists - PPT case on bee deaths from Bayer pesticides                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                       
Rachna Dhingra emailed the Chemical & Engineering News article titled \"Bhopal's legacy\" from the magazine's current issue to the Remember-bhopal distribution list.    
                                                                                                                                                                       
German-based anti-Bayer activists CBGnetwork emailed a document on Bayer pesticides causing bee deaths. This is part of the \"case\" against Bayer to be presented at    
the Permanent People's Tribunal in Bangalore.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
Message boards: PAN press releases; Asian Age open letter                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                       
The Chennai environmental groups' message boards have posts by Rahul Muraldiharan of the PAN UK press release about the people's tribunal, and Nity Jayaraman posted   
the Asian Age open letter to Ken Livingstone.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
Social media: BMA; anti-Dow Facebook page; Jeory; Jowell; Gardiner; Labour Party                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                       
In addition to the usual BMA Twitter and Facebook accounts having multiple new posts of links to media and activist posts,                                             
 - Ted Jeory, Tessa Jowell, Barry Gardiner and the UK Labour Party have all posted tweets about Jowell's press release and/or the Guardian report on it.               
 - One BMA link of note is to the Parliament video archive of the Culture, Media and Sport committee hearing on 11/15. The activist comment is \"watch Coe squirm.\"     
http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Main/Player.aspx?meetingId=9440&player=silverlight                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                     Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                       
Yes Men: OSW drum circle for Bloomberg                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                       
The Yes Men have been busy at Occupy Wall Street activities this week, including a 24-hour drum circle session that began Sunday afternoon near Mayor Bloomberg's      
home, and designating the area near the mayor's house as a \"no First Amendment zone\" when protesters were kept at a distance from the residence.                       
The Yes Men and several other social media accounts posted on Twitter and Facebook about the drum circle announcement.                                                 
The Yes Men's social media accounts and Yes Lab website had three blog posts reporting on the drum circle and one result of a woman being fired from her day job for   
taking part and describing Bloomberg as a \"warlord.\" Full text available on request.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                       
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                                                                 Allis Information Management, Inc..                                                                   

   Please remove me from this mailing list.

    
","2011-11-23 23:49:03",1,"2012-02-27 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/403291_dow-confidential-bhopal-monitoring-report-no-friday-report.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","mongoven@stratfor.com","attach/35/35162_Activist info 11-20-11 ICJB - new pages.pdf
attach/35/35166_Blog 11-20-11 Jarvis - Sambhavna volunteer.pdf
attach/35/35577_Blog 11-23-11 L Fernandes - Sporting News.pdf
attach/36/36557_Blog 11-23-11 Ted Jeory.pdf
attach/36/36566_Social_media_11-23-11_UK_politics_-_Twitter.pdf
attach/36/36567_Social_media_11-19_to_11-23-11_anti-Dow_Olympics_-_FB.pdf
attach/36/36568_Activist_info_11-20-11_RailRoko-English8001.pdf
attach/36/36569_Social_media_11-19_to_11-23-11_BMA_-_FB.pdf"
403310,"Yes Men monitoring 05-27-11
","   Yes Men Mike Bonanno and Andy Bichlbaum are making appearances on the
   opposite ends of the Earth - Bonanno is still lecturing in Europe, while
   Bichlbaum is at the MountainFilm festival in Telluride, Colorado.

   -       Hein Wils of the Stedelijk Museum in Amsterdam tweeted about
   Bonanno lecturing there today.

   -       A German politics website has posted a full 1.5 hour video of
   Bonanno's lecture in Vienna.

   http://ichmachpolitik.at/questions/1163

   -       Huffington Post and a USA Today travel blog both briefly mentioned
   Bichlbaum's presence at the festival in Telluride.

   HuffPo 
   http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jerry-cope/environmental-activism-33_b_867446.html

   USA Today 
   http://travel.usatoday.com/alliance/destinations/venturethere/post/2011/05/Mountainfilm-Inspires/171538/1

   In other media

   -       The UK's Guardian published a commentary by Jonathon Paige on the
   UK Uncut movement, in which he said they need \"more spectacle\" to \"avoid
   becoming the anti-cuts Hare Krishnas, routinely chanting in the high
   street.\" The Yes Men's BBC/Bhopal hoax, and their more recent
   collaboration with US Uncut in targeting GE, are included in a list of
   \"four spectacles that got the message across.\" The other three are the
   Boston Tea Party of 1773, the poll tax riot in London, 1990, and \"the
   Yippies invade Wall Street, 1967.\"

   http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/27/uk-uncut-yes-men-anti-cuts

   -       The Hartford (CT) Advocate newsgroup ran a report this week about
   the Yes Men/US Uncut prank on GE.

   http://www.hartfordadvocate.com/news/national/nh-activists-punk-ge-by-saying-the-company-would-repay-federal-taxes-it-legally-dodged-20110524,0,7485145.story

   -       The current issue of The Progressive magazine has an interview
   with The Yes Men. Text of the article is not currently available.

   Regards,

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-05-27 20:21:09",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/403310_yes-men-monitoring-05-27-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","mkolleth@dow.com,sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
403637,"Bhopal update - 11-15-11 media
","   Scot, Tomm,

   The UK Independent published a second article about drug trials in India,
   this one specific to the BMHRC. Writer Nina Lakhani said the information
   sources were \"secret reports\" showing \"drug trials funded by western
   pharmaceutical firms at the Indian hospital set up for survivors of the
   Bhopal disaster violated international ethical standards and could have
   put patients at risk.\"

   The reports cited are likely documents accessed by ICJB leader Rachna
   Dhingra via RTI requests that have been reported here previously.

   Dow is not mentioned, the article focuses on pharmaceutical companies
   including Theravance, Pfizer, GSK and Sanofi, and the drug trial practices
   at the hospital. Dhingra termed the conduct of the trials \"disgusting and
   appalling,\" and the Bhopal gas survivors who were subjected to the trials
   \"doubly victimized.\" A case study of Ramadhar Shrivastave is included; he
   is the same patient highlighted in recent media items about the drug trial
   controversy.

   http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/?rid=201028415&cat=hfu8sjsy4hjfjdha

   -       Daily News & Analysis published a commentary on Monday's broader
   Independent report on drug trials in India. Full text available on
   request.

   Olympics media

   Ummid.com and Siaset published an article by Indian Muslim reporter Pervez
   Bari, who folded together several topics regarding Bhopal.

   He started with the information from the Bhopal and Chennai press
   conferences, listed the 21 former Olympians who signed the ICJB petition,
   and the text of the ICJB . He included expanded comments from Dhingra,
   regarding the UK MPs actions based on \"initiative of the BGIA\" (Bhopal
   Group for Information and Action).

   After the several comments from Monday's ICJB press statement and one from
   Sarangi, Bari revisited the activist allegations regarding Dow, its
   relationship to and responsibilities for UCC, the polluter pays principle,
   UCC's lease obligation to return the factory site to the MP govt \"in its
   original condition,\" the GoI court petition for Dow to fund the site
   remediation, and the activist claim of double standards and racist
   policies regarding UCC business in the US and India.

   http://ummid.com/news/2011/November/15.11.2011/olymipans_against_dow_chemicals.htm

   Four print editions of Indian papers had short articles, mainly sourced
   from PTI,  on Monday's press conferences, all located in the Sports
   sections and positioned below the fold:

   Hindustan Times' New Delhi and Chandigarh editions, Asian Age New Delhi
   edition, and the Pioneer New Delhi edition. The Pioneer version can be
   read online:

   http://www.dailypioneer.com/sports/20514-singles.html

   ANI issued wire and video reports on Monday's press conferences, which
   appeared on a handful of India media websites. The two reports are much
   the same. Two former Olympic hockey players interviewed, their comments in
   Hindi on the video are subtitled in English. Comments include that if Dow
   has enough money for Olympic sponsorships, they should compensate the
   Bhopal gas victims. A photo of Warren Anderson and others from the 1984
   gas accident are shown at the end over audio stating Dow purchased UCC in
   2001.

   The statements from the two men were included in the ANI print report.

   Text: 
   http://in.news.yahoo.com/ex-indian-olympians-voice-anger-over-dow-chemicals-061826174.html

   Video: 
   http://www.indianexpress.com/video/sports/22/indian-olympians-slam-dow/6602

   UK communist media Morning Star included the Indian Olympians petition
   information in a report on Olympics security concerns.

   http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/news/content/view/full/111936

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-11-15 16:14:31",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/403637_bhopal-update-11-15-11-media-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
404322,"Bhopal update - 12-12-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   Since email capability has been limited the past few days, here is a recap
   of the weekend media and monitoring results, plus today's new media.

   12/11 AP reported Lord Coe's said in Beijing LOCOG is \"comfortable\" with
   Dow as the Olympic stadium wrap sponsor and the Bhopal gas tragedy is a
   separate issue. The report had approx. 250 pickups, largely in US media,
   although the Canadian Press Association did pick it up. These include New
   York Times, Washington Post, Washington Examiner, Washington Times, Boston
   Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, San Francisco Examiner, Denver Post, Miami
   Herald, Seattle Times, Bloomberg Business Week, Yahoo! News, FOX News &
   Business, Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Detroit Free Press and at least two
   Michigan television outlets - WNEM TV 5 Saginaw and WILX TV Lansing.

    - Asian Age published the AP article on p10 of Monday's New Delhi
   edition, in the middle of the International page.

   http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/head-of-london-2012-olympic-organizing-committee-says-hes-comfortable-with-dows-sponsorship/2011/12/11/gIQAxeGmmO_story.html?wprss=rss_world

   12/12 BBC posted a nearly identical report on Coe's statement. The UK
   Press Association and some Australian media also reported the story.

   http://www.ukbbcnews.com/london-2012-primary-says-he-can-handle-dow-sponsorship.html

    12/11 PTI and UK Morning Star posted articles on Coe's comment, each with
   much the same content as the AP article. Few pickups of the PTI piece so
   far.

   PTI: 
   http://expressbuzz.com/sport/london-olympics-coe-defends-dow-connection/342373.html 

   12/11 The UK Guardian reported on Coe's visit to Beijing and ended with
   four paragraphs on the controversy over Dow's sponsorship. Sports writer
   Owen Gibson framed that part of the article on budgetary issues for LOCOG.
   On the Dow sponsorship, Gibson noted it would be an agenda item on the
   IOA's upcoming meeting.

   http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/dec/11/lord-coe-london-2012-youth

   12/12 PTI  reported IOA secretary general Randhir Singh said the question
   of how to \"put forth the sentiments of the people of India against Dow
   Chemical\" will be decided by the IOA General Body at its meeting on
   Thursday. He affirmed India will not boycott the games but the IOA may
   write to the IOC.

   When asked about Coe's statement from Beijing of commitment to Dow's
   sponsorship, Singh said he would not comment.

   \"Asked about IOC chief Jacques Rogge's comments that India should talk to
   the athletes first before thinking of boycotting the Olympics, Randhir
   said, `Gagan Narang has expressed his view and we are talking to the
   athletes.'\" 

   http://www.deccanherald.com/content/211197/gbm-decide-ioas-future-steps.html

   12/12 NDTV reported Satinath Sarangi made a statement today in response to
   Coe's comment in Beijing, and reiterated the gas victims' call for India
   to boycott the games. He called Coe \"a mouthpiece for Dow.\"

   http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/dow-row-bhopal-activist-hits-out-at-london-olympics-organising-committee-chairman-157168 

   12/12 IBNLive posted a 1:49 min video report on the LOCOG and ICJB
   statements, with comment via telephone from Sarangi, who said the gas NGOs
   will meet with the IOA and say, \"get a spine\" and stand up to LOCOG and
   IOC. He said Coe has never asked the gas victims why Dow is still dealing
   with Bhopal-related issues in India.

   http://ibnlive.in.com/news/london-olympics-panel-backs-dow-as-sponsor/210965-2.html 

   12/10 Times of India reported GoI Sports minister Ajay Maken was asked
   about the Dow sponsorship and replied the IOA has been asked to \"stake a
   strong decision on it.\" He also said it was not up to him to protest.

    - This appeared in the sport sections of Hindustan Times and DNA print
   editions on Saturday. The articles were short and positioned below the
   fold.

   http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/events-tournaments/london-olympics/Maken-asks-IOA-to-take-a-strong-decision-on-Dow-issue/articleshow/11049349.cms

   12/12 PTI reported BJP MP Maya Singh brought up in India's Rajya Sabha the
   question of Dow's Olympic sponsorship and asked her fellow legislators to
   join her in calling for India to boycott the Games over the sponsorship.

   http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/events-tournaments/london-olympics/Will-India-take-part-in-Dow-sponsored-Olympics-BJP-asks-Govt/articleshow/11082198.cms

   12/12 London business media City AM reported the Dow sponsorship issue is
   currently \"leading Olympic buzz.\" The analysis came from BT, \"the official
   communications services provider\" for the Games.

   http://www.cityam.com/news-and-analysis/olympic-media-buzz-london-2012-partners-6

   12/10 Ted Jeory reported in Express on Sunday that MP Barry Gardiner is
   claiming LOCOG \"misled\" MPs \"over the savings to be made from the [stadium
   wrap] sponsorship contract\" and \"the entire procurement process is a
   sham.\" Gardiner is reported to be writing to Culture, Media and Sports
   committee chair John Whittingdale about his concerns. The article claimed
   the Olympic Delivery Authority (ODA) said in October 2010 eliminating the
   wrap would save 7 million pounds, when a vendor had bid the work at about
   1.5 million GBP. \"The suspicion is that Dow...was always the favorite.'

   http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/289238/Dow-s-2012-bid-faces-MPs-probe

   12/11 ANI picked up Ted Jeory's Express on Sunday article about Barry
   Gardiner casting doubt on LOCOG's procurement process and whether Dow was
   \"always the favourite\" for the wrap sponsorship. Half a dozen pickups, DNA
   the only major media.

   http://www.newkerala.com/news/2011/worldnews-124408.html

   12/10 Times of India also reported from Nagpur the stay on transporting
   waste material from the former UCILI factory site has been extended to
   Dec. 19. The stay was extended on a GoI request for more time to file a
   reply to the Maharashtra Pollution Control Board's objections to filing a
   no-objection certificate on the waste material transportation.

   http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/nagpur/Toxic-waste-PIL-deferred-till-Dec-19/articleshow/11053512.cms 

   12/10 IBNS posted a new ICJB press statement announcing the gas NGOs
   marked International Human Rights Day with a march to the MP governor's
   house and presented a memo with six demands relative to the human rights
   of the gas victims. Full text of the press statement, the letter to the
   governor, and the list of demands are attached.

   http://www.indiablooms.com/NewsDetailsPage/2011/newsDetails101211n.php

    

   12/11 IANS reported a Madhya Pradesh government website for the Bhopal gas
   tragedy relief and rehabilitation department \"shows old figures\" regarding
   the compensation paid to gas victims. The article noted the gas NGOs
   demands for \"correct\" figures to be used for compensation calculation.
   Sadhna Karnik of the Bhopal Gas Peedith Sangharsh Sahyog Samiti said the
   website content is indicative of \"the duel standards of the government\"
   and criticized both the Congress and BJP parties for \"playing with the
   emotions of the Bhopal tragedy survivors.\"

   About 15 pickups seen, including Hindustan Times, Economic Times,
   TwoCircles.net and Indian Gazette.

   http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-news/Bhopal/Government-website-on-Bhopal-gas-tragedy-shows-old-figures/Article1-780540.aspx 

   12/11 Guardian/Observer websites in the UK reported architectural (or
   maybe just art) critic Rowan Moore included the decorative wrap of the
   Olympic stadium on a list of the worst architectural ideas of 2011. He
   called the wrap \"pointless [and] supplied courtesy of the
   Bhopal-implicated Dow Chemical Company.\"

   http://www.guardian.co.uk/culture/2011/dec/11/best-architecture-2011-rowan-moore 

   On the activist side,

   12/11  Rachna Dhingra emailed the ICJB press statement about their Human
   Rights Day observances and included a link to a song written to describe
   the \"human rights violations\" visited upon the protesters at the rail roko
   demonstration. The post on YouTube is nearly 10 minutes long and is
   accompanied by a repetitive slide show of images from the rail roko and
   other commonly used photos from Bhopal.

   12/11 Farah Edwards Khan has made quite the push on Twitter to promote
   Lorraine Close's petition to Lord Coe, which currently has about 10,500
   signatures. \"Fareeta\" tweeted about the petition to at least 30 Twitter
   users including Jane Fonda, Gloria Steinam and Naomi Klein.

   She also tweeted on Friday \"all very quiet on the Dow stadium wrap. is
   this the calm before the storm.\"

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-12-12 17:41:32",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/404322_bhopal-update-12-12-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
404472,"Bhopal update - 12-14-11 IOA media PM
","   Scot, Tomm,

   Wall Street Journal, BBC, Telegraph, Around The Rings, Morning Star and
   Associated Press all issued reports on Malhotra's statement this morning
   that IOA will call for Dow's Olympic sponsorship to be dropped.

   WSJ reported on the impending IOA meeting, Malhotra's comment about a
   \"tainted company\" being an \"unacceptable\" Olympic sponsor, and Dow's
   position on the Bhopal issue.

   http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203893404577098430687092216.html

   BBC reported on the IOA's call for Dow's sponsorship to be dropped, but it
   \"stopped short of boycotting the Games, that LOCOG and Coe are
   \"comfortable\" with the sponsorship and his statement to that end, the
   effigy burning in Bhopal, and quoted Keith Wiggins as part of Dow's
   position on the Bhopal issue.

   http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-16190673

   Telegraph (UK) reporter Jacquelin Magnay wrote in the context of British
   MPs and celebrities calling for LOCOG to withdraw Dow's sponsorship, and
   supporting the campaign by signing the most active petition (although not
   identified as Lorrain Close's change.org effort). Malhotra's statement
   from this morning is included, prefacing comments by Gardiner questioning
   LOCOG's procurement process. The Sustainability Commission's findings
   validating the process are also noted. The article ends with two lists of
   names, about 20 celebrities and 28 politicians, who have signed on to
   support the campaign against Dow.

   http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/olympics/8956176/London-2012-Olympics-British-politicians-demand-London-drops-Dow-as-Olympic-Stadium-sponsor.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

   Associated Press issued a short wire report that is very similar to the
   initial PTI article this morning in quotes from Malhotra on the Olympic
   ideals of \"love, brotherhood and transparency.\" It briefly described the
   Bhopal gas accident, Dow's position regarding it and Coe's support of Dow
   as an Olympic sponsor. The piece ends by noting Gardiner indicated \"the
   Indian committee's opposition should lead organizers to rethink the
   sponsorship plans.\"

   True to form for an AP release, there have been about 100 pickups since
   early afternoon, mainly in the US and including ABC News, CBS News,
   Washington Post, Washington Examiner, Boston Globe, San Francisco
   Chronicle, Seattle Times, Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Minneapolis
   Star-Tribune, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, CBS Marketwatch, SI.com, CNN,
   Yahoo! News, Breitbart, Salon.com, Huffington Post, and numerous broadcast
   and regional media outlets.

   http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/india-olympic-body-london-games-cut-dow-15154756

   Around the Rings reported from the AFP article, quoting Malhotra as
   planning to \"express our displeasure\" to LOCOG and ask for Dow's
   sponsorship to be dropped. Both Dow and the activist positions are stated
   briefly. IOC secretary general Randhir Singh said the \"sentiments of the
   people...cannot be ignored.\" Sher Khan's call for boycotting the Games is
   included, as is Malhotra's assurance of no boycott.

   http://www.aroundtherings.com/articles/view.aspx?id=38784

   Morning Star, UK communist media, quoted from the initial PTI report and
   titled it: \"India asks London to throw out Dow.\" Malhotra's intent for the
   IOA to coordinate with the GoI on the issue is included, as is Dow's
   position on the Bhopal issue, and Coe's support of Dow as an Olympic
   sponsor. The piece ends by noting Tessa Jowell's position that \"Dow should
   withdraw from sponsorship of the wrap.\"

   http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/index.php/news/content/view/full/113146

   The Guardian reported Barry Gardiner has written to Culture, Media and
   Sport minister John Whittingdale calling for an \"urgent inquiry\" into the
   stadium wrap procurement process. Gardiner contended \"a simple Google
   search would have revealed numerous other cases that showed that Dow could
   only be a significant reputational risk to the London 2012 Games.\" The
   article simply noted \"demonstrations\" against Dow's sponsorship have
   occurred, and the IOA said it will ask LOCOG to drop Dow's sponsorship.

   http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/dec/14/london-2012-dow-chemical-mp-inquiry

   IANS issued a brief quote from Aslam Sher Khan from a telephone contact,
   in which he sympathized with the Olympic athletes for wanting to make use
   of their training investments, but \"being a Bhopali,\" believed India
   should not participate in an Olympics with Dow sponsorship. Very limited
   pickup seen.

   http://sports.ndtv.com/othersports/othersports/item/182405-dont-participate-in-london-olympics-aslam-sher-khan

   Other media today include:

    - IBNS hosted an online chat with Satinath Sarangi and Rachna Dhingra on
   the Dow sponsorship and \"India's stance.\" The Dec. 12 discussion covered
   about two dozen questions from participants. Sarangi and Dhingra's answers
   are not surprising and do not reveal any new information.

   http://ibnlive.in.com/chat/view/764.html

    - PTI and UNI reported on Nagpur MP Muttemwar's concern over the GoI plan
   to dispose of the Bhopal factory waste at the DRDO facility, and that he
   has written to PM Singh to \"draw his attention towards the issue.\"

   PTI 
   http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/wire-news/planned-incinerationbhopal-toxic-wastenagpur-opposed_633525.html

   UNI 
   http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/nagpur/Muttemwar-opposes-Bhopal-toxins-entry/articleshow/11101735.cms

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-12-14 22:58:14",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/404472_bhopal-update-12-14-11-ioa-media-pm-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
404643,"Re: CORP: Bhopal 25 coming up
","   Maybe the Yes Men were the pinnacle.  They made an argument in their way
   on their terms -- that this is a corporate problem and a part of the a
   larger whole that the Yes Men work.  They're the only anti-corporate group
   that has joined with the Bhopal groups.

   Where is SCI or RAN or even Greenpeace on this?  On one hand, the EHF
   folks haven't found a way to branch out beyond occasional AI mentions, but
   at the same time, the larger anti-corporate movement has avoided Bhopal
   very nicely.  Will Chevron get the same pass? 

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Joseph de Feo\" <defeo@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Bart Mongoven\" <mongoven@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Kathleen Morson\" <morson@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, November 9, 2009 11:06:36 AM GMT -05:00 US/Canada Eastern
   Subject: Re: CORP: Bhopal 25 coming up

   The professional anti-Dow types have made a slight nod toward expanded
   activity, but never followed through on it -- the idea of \"other Bhopals\"
   that were the fault of Dow or others. For the past few years it has mostly
   just been a spot on a website occasionally updated with a blog post about
   different multinationals elsewhere in India (e.g., the SIPCOT work by the
   Global Community Monitor affiliates). Now I don't even think blog posts go
   up there anymore.

   One area in which you might argue the Dow campaign has been successful was
   in the R&D site battle outside Pune. Dow had to change its plans. But that
   wasn't really a result of the Bhopal-based activists' strategic skills; it
   seems they mostly provided one more weapon (the Bhopal issue) and likely
   some small amount of funding that helped propel/prolong a campaign that
   was going to be difficult for Dow just because of the religious
   associations of the area near the site  and political gain to be had by
   pandering to some locals in an election year. The Dow people could try to
   repeat that elsewhere, but I'm not sure they'd find the perfect storm
   again.

   The Yes Men had their London \"B'eau Pal\" stunt in London, but again, that
   wasn't any indication of an expansion. Same issue and complaints,
   statement urging people to check out the Bhopal Medical Appeal.

   Bart Mongoven wrote:

     We're only a month away from the 25th anniversary of Bhopal.  The
     objective of the Dow Campaign, as far as I can tell, has been the same
     as the upcoming RAN Chevron campaign -- to make an impossible demand
     upon a major multinational in order to bring attention to the
     fundamental problems with laws relating to corporate accountability. 

     With less than a month to go, you'd think that the major players --
     especially Amnesty -- would have branched out from Bhopal to make a
     broader set of issues.  I don't see any evidence of it.  AI Canada
     included Bhopal in a Demand Dignity release in September.  The
     intenrational secretariat has a small link on its website.  That's all
     I've seen outside of the dedicated anti-Dow establishment -- those
     groups paid to hate Dow (PANNA, SfB). 

     The anger is legitimate and the campaign framing has been done pretty
     well.  If they can't manage to use the 25th anniversary to broaden the
     issue, they probably won't be able to.  They may as well just let Dow or
     some proxy clean the site because keeping the site unremediated hasn't
     helped the anti-corproate cause; hasn't much helped the anti-Dow cause;
     and probably isn't doing a heck of a lot of good for the Bhopalis on
     whose behalf the activists claim to be working.

     The Chevron campaign is remarkably similar in its unrealistic demand. 
     Is it a follow up or an admission that the first thrust failed?

     Am I missing a node of activity or a major campaign that is to come? 
     Has the Dow campaign been more successful than I think?
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/404643_re-corp-bhopal-25-coming-up-.html","mongoven@stratfor.com","","morson@stratfor.com,defeo@stratfor.com",""
404678,"Bhopal update - 12-06-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   The Reuters article reported earlier does not appear to have gotten much
   more pickup at this time.

   In other media

    - Channel 4 News posted a brief article and video report on India
   protesting Dow's Olympic sponsorship. The text article contained the basic
   items about the IOA, LOCOG and Dow statements. The video, however included
   an approximately 4-minute interview of Tessa Jowell by Channel 4 news
   reader Jon Snow. Snow asked if Jowell had \"seen this problem coming,\" to
   which she replied by describing events of her trip to India last week.
   Jowell was to have spoken at a sports conference but was cancelled, she
   thinks because the GoI was afraid she would use that platform to talk
   about Bhopal and Dow. She said she would not have done so.

   Jowell said she met with \"a number of people who are concerned, including
   the senior counsel for the Indian government on the Indian Olympic
   Association issue and the five NGOs.\"

   Snow prompted her about the original question, and Jowell began to list
   \"options,\" including that Dow could withdraw since the wrap was only to
   \"enhance the appearance of the stadium for television.\" On further
   prompting, she admitted she did not know about the sponsorship until
   September and has \"been pursuing it ever since.\"

   http://www.channel4.com/news/indian-government-protests-dow-olympic-sponsorship

   India's Siaset Daily posted a lengthy article by Pervez Bari about Aslam
   Sher Khan making statements to the press about writing to Sonia Gandhi,
   Barry Gardiner, Keith Vaz and Tessa Jowell about the Dow sponsorship. The
   letter to Gandhi, which was copied to \"all the members of the Congress
   Working Committee,\" called for IOA to make a formal protest to LOCOG. To
   the British MPs, Sher Khan offered his support and had a reply from Vaz.
   He called for Indian MPs to \"take up the issue,\" as have the UK MPs, and
   claimed he would \"not hesitate to don the (anti-corruption) role of Anna
   Hazare in getting proper justice to the victims and survivors....\" He also
   said he will bring up the Bhopal issue \"in a big way at the former
   Olympians meeting\" as part of the Dec. 15 IOA meeting.

    - PTI and UNI also reported more briefly from Sher Khan's press event.

   http://www.siasat.com/english/news/ex-olympian-aslam-sher-writes-sonia-dow-chemical-sponsorship-london-olympics

   Business Standard reported IOA executive board members C P Singh Deo and
   Parsh Nath Mukherjee said the Dow sponsorship issue is not on the agenda
   for the IOA's 12/15 meeting, that the issue is being handled by the
   government and is not up to the IOA to address.

   http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/dow-as-games-sponsor-no-reason-to-boycott-olympics/457726/

   The UK's Guardian reported both Rachna Dhingra and Barry Gardiner made
   statements about the IOA's message to the IOC. Dhingra said the NGOs had
   asked for that action six months ago, and \"welcome it, but it needs to go
   further.\" Gardiner said the GoI and IOA \"have done the right thing by
   standing up to Dow's involvement.... LOCOG must realize that this issue
   will not go away, and the longer they leave the decision to kick out Dow
   the larger the protests will grow.\"

   No online article, full text available on request.

   The Guardian also published a commentary by Richard Williams criticizing
   the stadium wrap, Dow's sponsorship and quoting BMA activist Lorraine
   Close in describing contaminated water and surroundings in Bhopal. Readers
   are encouraged to sign Close's change.org petition asking Lord Coe to drop
   Dow's sponsorship.

   http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2011/dec/05/london-olympics-dow-bhopal-legacy?newsfeed=true

   Several Indian media outlets published further reporting on the IOA's
   statement on Monday to the IOC and LOCOG:

    - Telegraph India reported the part of the concern over Dow's sponsorship
   is its position as an IOC partner through the 2020 Games, for which India
   had planned to bid. It also reported the letter to IOA from the Sports
   ministry was written by Rahul Bhatnagar, a joint secretary at the
   ministry.

   http://www.telegraphindia.com/1111206/jsp/nation/story_14844874.jsp

    - The Hindu and NDTV also reported India would like to bid to host a
   future Games, and has asked the \"Indian mission in London to get more
   details from the organizers\" about Dow's sponsorship. Hindu noted Liveris
   is an India-US CEO Forum member, \"but has stayed away from the
   meetings...due to the sensitivities involved.\"

   Hindu  http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article2689249.ece

   NDTV 
   http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/dows-olympics-sponsorship-row-govt-can-take-up-the-issue-if-needed-says-maken-155693

    - Times of India and PTI reported Sports Minister A J Maken urged the IOC
   to \"consider the sentiments\" involving Bhopal and Dow, said he \"won't let
   Bhopal down,\" and that it \"would be embarrassing that on one hand we are
   asking for extradition of [Warren Anderons] and on the other hand we are
   partnering with those people.\"

   ToI 
   http://www.timesnow.tv/Wont-let-Bhopal-down-says-Maken/articleshow/4390681.cms

   PTI 
   http://news.oneindia.in/2011/12/06/consider-sentiments-of-bhopal-gas-victims-maken-to-ioc.html

   Express News Service, SportzPower, Economic Times and the Statesman also
   posted reports on the IOA statement.

   CNN-IBN reported the Madhya Pradesh Human Rights Commission criticized the
   MP government for the \"police brutality on protesting Bhopal gas victims\"
   and asked to be given a detailed report on the violence.

   http://ibnlive.in.com/news/hrc-pulls-up-mp-govt-for-lathicharge-on-gas-victims/209115-3.html

   IBNS reported the ICJB issued a press statement condemning the violence at
   the rail roko and stating they will perform their own enquiry into the
   matter, \"presided over by a retired judge of the High Court or Supreme
   Court.\" They have called again for the release of all 14 men still in
   police custody and said they will help survivors \"gather evidence and
   initiate formal proceedings against those responsible for the violence,
   including the police.\" The NGOs apologized to the media people who were
   injured. The article was not available for online access, full text
   available on request.

   The Pioneer, however, reported Abdul Jabbar and the BGPMUS said the ICJB
   NGOs are partly responsible for Saturday's violence. He criticized the
   state government for not fulfilling projects and programs it promised to
   the gas victims.

   http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25751-organisations-divided-over-rail-roko-incident.html

   A second Pioneer article reported Congress Party Member of Parliament
   (Ujjain) Premchand Guddu filed a memorandum with the MP government saying
   the state is \"responsible for all that happened on Saturday.\" He said the
   police and state officials had plenty of prior notice the rail roko was
   planned.

   http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25749-cong-mp-demands-high-level-probe-into-rail-roko-incident.html

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-12-06 19:28:35",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/404678_bhopal-update-12-06-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
406677,"Bhopal update - 04-21-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   There does not appear to be new media on the SC hearings on the curative
   petitions.

   -       The Times News Network papers reported people in India seeking
   compensation from companies will have to pay 1% of the amount being
   sought, to the GoI's Environment Ministry as a fee for the National Green
   Tribunal. The article used the Bhopal gas accident victims as an example.
   People who fall below the Poverty Line will not be subject to the fees.

   http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/environment/pollution/victims-to-pay-for-demanding-compensation-from-polluters/articleshow/8042532.cms

   -       Daily News & Analysis reported \"[Shiv] Sena has a history of
   hijacking issues\" to suit the party's own ends. This article actually
   reports on the Jaitapur Nuclear Power Plant issue, not the WikiLeaks
   exposure of alleged Shiv Sena involvement with Dow's Pune R&D center
   project. However, the R&D center issue is used as an example of the party
   \"hijacking\" issues.

   http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report_shiv-sena-has-history-of-hijacking-issues_1534249

   -       The Hindu reported several well-known activists, including Bhopal
   NGO leader Satinath Sarangi, are going to be on a \"yatra\" from Tarapur to
   Jaitapur on April 23-25 as an anti-nuclear protest.

   http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article1707645.ece

   -       Huntington News, a WV media outlet, published a review of Diane
   Wilson's new book,  Diary of an Eco-Outlaw. The book is said to include a
   description of her \"Bhopal protest\" of climbing a cooling tower at Dow's
   Seadrift plant in 2002.

   http://www.huntingtonnews.net/3439

   In activist resources:

   -       ICJB activist Dharmesh Shah emailed to the group's distribution
   lists the 4/19 Hindustan Times article on the Nationalist Congress Party
   calling for an investigation of Shiv Sena MP Shivajirao Adhalrao Patil
   over WikiLeaks reporting he was \"involved\" with Dow on establishing the
   Pune R&D center project.

   -       ICJB's India co-ordinator Rachna Dhingra is scheduled to return to
   the US as a keynote speaker for the AID US annual conference on May 28-30
   in Boston. There is only one session specifically noted so far where she
   will speak, on Saturday, May 28. The topic is \"Justice for Bhopal.\"

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-04-21 19:54:56",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/406677_bhopal-update-04-21-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
407397,"FW: Client working list
","","2011-04-23 16:48:48",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/407397_fw-client-working-list-.html","kuykendall@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com","attach/5/5728_image001.png
attach/37/37035_client list.xls"
407784,"DOW CONFIDENTIAL: Bhopal Monitoring Report Friday, November 18, 2011
","Contact AIM for more Information                                                                                                                                                                                             
Significant Activist Activity                                                                                                                                                                                                
 11/14 Bhopal, Chennai press events announce ICJB petition to LOCOG signed by 22 Indian ex-Olympians                                                                                                                         
 11/15 BMA/Amnesty/Labour Friends of India press event in London opposed Dow sponsorship                                                                                                                                     
 11/16-17 BMA: Heavily tweeted link to Guardian poll \"Should Olympic chiefs dump Dow?\"                                                                                                                                       
 PAN Int'l \"people's tribunal\" 12/3-6 to \"indict\" agrichemical companies for \"gross violations of human rights\"                                                                                                              
Media                                                                                                                                                                                                                        
 Olympics sponsorship media summary                                                                                                                                                                                          
 11/14 AP, India media: Bhopal, Chennai press conferences by ex-Olympians opposing Dow sponsorship                                                                                                                           
 11/15-18 Global media: London Olympics - Coe defends LOCOG, Dow; BMA et al press event opposes sponsorship                                                                                                                  
 11/15-18 Local media: MDN, MLive, WNEM; UK local letters and columns                                                                                                                                                        
 11/14 Saginaw News: Reporter questions whether Bhopal \"shadow\" affects Dow                                                                                                                                                  
 11/12 Hindustan Times: GoI cancelled registrations for four Dow Agrosciences products                                                                                                                                       
 11/15 Ummid: Pervez Bari article on Olympics and standing activist allegations against Dow                                                                                                                                  
 11/18 IANS, Telegraph: Greenpeace, \"Bhopal survivors\" object to new nuclear civil liabilities rules                                                                                                                         
 11/14 Asian Voice: Keith Vaz interview of Colin Toogood on Bhopal and BMA                                                                                                                                                   
 11/14-11/17 Independent, Socialist Party UK: BMHRC drug trials commentary                                                                                                                                                   
 11/17 Hard News: activist RTI requests GoI documents on Anderson extradition                                                                                                                                                
 11/18 Derby Evening Telegraph: Animal's People review                                                                                                                                                                       
Activist Activity                                                                                                                                                                                                            
 Bhopali film: Screenings scheduled in Amsterdam, Toronto, London, NYC, Pittsburgh, Boston                                                                                                                                   
 ICJB website: new front page layout; Rail Roko information/justification                                                                                                                                                    
 BMA website: media items on Dow's Olympic sponsorship; play day for Chingari Trust children                                                                                                                                 
 Amnesty: Bhopal presentation slides for Group 133; Annual Write-A-Thon on Dec. 11                                                                                                                                           
 Change.org petition now over 1,000 signatures                                                                                                                                                                               
 Activist email: Dhingra, Edwards send media items to Remember-Bhopal list                                                                                                                                                   
 AID: new chapter at George Washington Univ.                                                                                                                                                                                 
 Message boards: Games Monitor; Chennai and Delhi enviro groups                                                                                                                                                              
 Blogs: BMA volunteer Ian Jarvis updates on life at clinic                                                                                                                                                                   
 Social media: BMA Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube; anti-Dow Olympics Facebook                                                                                                                                                
 Yes Men: Yes Lab actions at APEC in Hawai'i; Bonanno to conduct Yes Lab in Sweden 12/14-16; Mark Rudd at Yes Lab 11/17                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/14 Bhopal, Chennai press events announce ICJB petition to LOCOG signed by 22 Indian ex-Olympians                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The International Campaign for Justice in Bhopal and former Indian Olympic hockey players coordinated press conferences in Bhopal and Chennai to announce at least 22 athletes had signed the ICJB's petition to Olympics    
officials and PM Singh calling for Dow's Olympic sponsorship to be dropped, or for India to boycott the London Games.                                                                                                        
The ICJB press statement quoted representatives of the five Bhopal activist groups & NGOs - Safreen Khan, Rachna Dhingra, Rashida Bee, Balkrishna Namdeo and Nawab Khan.                                                     
The Olympians statement recommended: \"national and international Olympians should oppose the unholy alliance with the poisoner of Bhopal.\" The Olympians who participated in the press conferences were:                     
 - In Bhopal: Inam - Ur - Rehman, B P Govinda, Syed Ali and Jalaluddin Rizvi.                                                                                                                                                
 - In Chennai: Vasudevan Baskaran and Charles Cornelius                                                                                                                                                                      
The AP and Indian media reported on the press conferences, as indicated in the media section below.                                                                                                                          
The ICJB's press statement, the petition addressed to Olympic officials, and the list of athletes who have signed it are attached.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/15 BMA/Amnesty/Labour Friends of India press event in London opposed Dow sponsorship                                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Bhopal Medical Appeal, Amnesty Int'l and the Labour Friends of India held a press event in London to publicize their opposition to Dow's Olympic stadium wrap sponsorship.                                                   
A preview of the press release was posted on Google Docs and distributed a few days prior via Twitter to several media and activist contacts.                                                                                
BMA tweeted the link to 11 other Twitter users: NDTV; Olympics watchdog blog Games Monitor and its administrator Julian Cheyne; anti-corporate activists Adbusters; environmental and legal activists EarthRights            
International; environmental/anti-pesticide contacts: This Is Ecocide; Shift Soil; No Mo Pesticides; Pesty Pesticides; and AntiDrifters; and the London Olympics Information account (The announcement tweet not displayed   
on that page).                                                                                                                                                                                                               
The press release was phrased in quite inflammatory terms, including the title of \"Growing scandal over Olympic stadium sponsor\" and that Dow \"having been recently found guilty of SERIOUS MALPRACTICE [emphasis            
theirs]...cannot be considered an appropriate sponsor of the London Olympics stadium.\"                                                                                                                                       
Representatives of the \"cross-party\" coalition appearing at the event were MP and Labour Friends of India leader Barry Gardiner, and Tim and Farah Edwards of BMA. The press release promised \"the great-great-granddaughter 
of the last \"Begum of Bhopal (the Bhopal Royal Family) and herself a survivor of the Bhopal disaster.\" This is presumably Mrs. Edwards.                                                                                      
Considerable global media coverage of the press conference ensued, much of it folded into reports on Lord Coe's testimony before Parliament's Culture, Media and Sports Committee, as indicated in the media reporting       
below.                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
The activist coalition press statement is attached.                                                                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/16-17 BMA: Heavily tweeted link to Guardian poll \"Should Olympic chiefs dump Dow?\"                                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
UK media the Guardian posted an online poll in its sports section asking \"Should Olympic chiefs dump Dow?\"                                                                                                                   
BMA sent numerous tweets urging recipients to \"Vote to dump Dow\" on the poll, sending more than 50 messages in a few hours, and several more before the poll closed.                                                         
Final poll results: 91.6% thought Dow should be removed as a sponsor.                                                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Three comments were also posted on the poll page, all critical of Dow. One of the comments was from Pesticide Action Network UK (PAN-UK), which named EDF as another Olympic sponsor considered \"dodgy.\"                     
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/poll/2011/nov/15/olympics-2012-dow?fb=native                                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
PAN Int'l \"people's tribunal\" 12/3-6 to \"indict\" agrichemical companies for \"gross violations of human rights\"                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/16 The Ecologist, a member of the UK's Guardian media network, reported Pesticide Action Network Int'l announced a \"Permanent People's Tribunal\" (PPT) session will be held from Dec. 3-6 \"to indict Agrochemical         
Transnationals for gross violations of human rights.\"                                                                                                                                                                        
The targeted companies and organizations are:                                                                                                                                                                                
Dow, Monsanto, DuPont, Bayer CropSciences, Syngenta, BASF, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Trade Organization.                                                                                
PAN has a website dedicated to the PPT session, with a case summary and a petition to sign with a goal of 10,000 signatures by Dec. 3. The petition currently has about 430 signatures.                                      
This refers visitors to PAN Asia Pacific contact and social media resources. The case summary is attached.                                                                                                                   
http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/1122020/monsanto_bayer_and_dow_face_trial_for_systematic_human_rights_abuses.html                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/17  PAN UK posted similar documents with a few more details, including giving Bangalore, India as the location for the PPT session, and identifying some \"legal experts\" and scientists who are named to the \"jury.\"      
These are Gurdial Singh Nijjar, Director of the Centre of Excellence for Biodiversity Law at the University Malaya; Pananchand Jain, retired Rajasthan High Court Justice; and Upendra Baxi, former President of the Indian  
Society of International Law.[and] scientists and experts such as Dr. Ricarda A. Steinbrecher, a biologist and geneticist with the German Federation of Scientists.\"                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/18 PAN North America (PANNA) also posted an announcement and executive summary of the planned PPT. The executive summary is closest in format and content to the PAN UK version, with the main exception of offering      
U.S.-based individuals as available for interviews:                                                                                                                                                                          
 - Kathyrn Gilje, PANNA co-director                                                                                                                                                                                          
 - Jeannie Economos, Farmworker Association of Florida                                                                                                                                                                       
 - Paige Tomaselli, Center for Food Safety                                                                                                                                                                                   
 - Viola Waghiyi, Alaska Community Action on Toxics                                                                                                                                                                          
 - Ana Duncan Pardo, Toxic Free NC                                                                                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Any or all of the remaining documents are available on request.                                                                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Olympics sponsorship media summary                                                                                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Global media reporting on Dow's sponsorship of the London Olympic stadium wrap ran heavily from Monday, 11/14, through Wednesday, 11/16. Reports began with the Indian activist and athletes press events in Bhopal and      
Chennai, then moved to London with reports first on Lord Coe's testimony before Parliament's Culture, Media and Sport committee, and followed by the \"cross-party\" activist coalition press event.                           
 - Associated Press reports led the rmedia all three days, with global pickups each time. Washington Post, Boston Globe, NBC Sports and FOX Sports were the main U.S. major media outlets to use the piece. Regional leading 
media pickups include Detroit News, San Francisco Chronicle, along with numerous U.S. and Canadian broadcast and media websites.  The initial report from London contained an error, stating Dow had purchased the Union     
Carbide plant in Bhopal in 2001. An updated version of the story corrected the statement.                                                                                                                                    
 - UK major media the Independent, Guardian, BBC and Channel 4 reported on the London events, as did wire services UK Press Association, PTI, IANS and ANI, and UK communist media Morning Star.                             
 - Agence France Presse issued a wire story, but received limited pickup.                                                                                                                                                    
 - The Hindu was the only Indian major media to publish a print report on the London events.                                                                                                                                 
 - Several video reports on the London events were broadcast, including Channel 4, Al Jazeera, and NewsXLive. These invariably began with the activist coalition event at the Olympic stadium, and included on-camera        
comments from Barry Gardiner, Farah or Tim Edwards.                                                                                                                                                                          
 - IOC news website Around The Rings has published updates on the events, as well.                                                                                                                                           
 - Local pickups included Midland Daily News, MLive.com and WNEM television.                                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/14 AP, India media: Bhopal, Chennai press conferences by ex-Olympians opposing Dow sponsorship                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Associated Press reported \"at least 21\" Indian Olympians called for LOCOG to drop Dow's sponsorship, calling it \"offensive to the spirit of the Olympic Games.\" The only person quoted by AP was Safreen Khan of Children    
Against Dow-Carbide, who said \"hundreds of children are being born disabled\" and blamed Dow for the lack of remediation in Bhopal. LOCOG was noted as standing firm on the Dow sponsorship, and Dow's position on the Bhopal 
issue was given. The article noted Dow's India office referred inquiries to the US headquarters.                                                                                                                             
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/45284750                                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
IBNS issued the closest iteration of the ICJB press release, as usual. Three Olympians appeared at the press conference in Bhopal: \"Inam - Ur - Rehman, B P Govinda, Syed Ali and Jalaluddin Rizvi,\" and said, \"national and 
international Olympians should oppose the unholy alliance with the poisoner of Bhopal. \"                                                                                                                                     
Representatives of the five Bhopal activist groups & NGOs were quoted - Safreen Khan, Rachna Dhingra, Rashida Bee, Balkrishna Namdeo and Nawab Khan. Bee said neither PM Singh's office nor the Indian Olympic Association   
have responded or acted on the ICJB's request that they contact LOCOG and demand Dow's sponsorship be dropped.                                                                                                               
http://www.newkerala.com/news/2011/worldnews-106332.html                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
PTI reported from Chennai that Hockey Olympians Vasudevan Baskaran and Charles Cornelius held a press conference in conjunction with the ICJB's press event in Bhopal.                                                       
http://www.newkerala.com/news/2011/worldnews-106332.html                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
UNI quoted Bhopal activist leader Sarangi, saying it is \"unfortunate\" neither the GoI or \"IOC\" [mistake for IOA?] were taking any action, while UK MPs are protesting the sponsorship. He also said efforts are being made   
to \"rope in more Olympians - including from other countries - in the campaign to protest Dow's sponsorship.\"                                                                                                                 
http://news.webindia123.com/news/Articles/India/20111114/1871539.html                                                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Yahoo! India News posted a video report by NBS News of the Bhopal press conference. The 1:45 minute clip showed several men sitting at a table in front of microphones while the reporter voice over explained the           
situation. Sarangi and \"sports person\" Syed Ali were interviewed on camera but both spoke in Hindi. The clip is titled \"Bhopal tragedy shadow over London Olympics.\"                                                         
http://in.news.yahoo.com/video/national-22564751/bhopal-tragedy-shadow-over-london-olympics-27248836.html#crsl=%252Fvideo%252Fnational-22564751%252Fbhopal-tragedy-shadow-over-london-olympics-27248836.html                 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Around the Rings posted a report on the press conferences.                                                                                                                                                                   
http://www.aroundtherings.com/articles/view.aspx?id=38505                                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
UK communist media Morning Star included the Indian Olympians petition information in a report on Olympics security concerns.                                                                                                
http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/news/content/view/full/111936                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/15 Four print editions of Indian papers had short articles, mainly sourced from PTI, on the press conferences, all located in the Sports sections and positioned below the fold: Hindustan Times' New Delhi and           
Chandigarh editions, Asian Age New Delhi edition, and the Pioneer New Delhi edition.                                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/15 ANI issued similar wire and video reports on the press conferences. Two former Olympic hockey players were interviewed, with English subtitles on their comments in Hindi, including if Dow has enough money for       
Olympic sponsorships, they should compensate the Bhopal gas victims. A photo of Warren Anderson and others from the 1984 gas accident were at the end over audio stating Dow purchased UCC in 2001.                          
The statements from the two men were included in the ANI print report.                                                                                                                                                       
Text: http://in.news.yahoo.com/ex-indian-olympians-voice-anger-over-dow-chemicals-061826174.html                                                                                                                             
Video: http://www.indianexpress.com/video/sports/22/indian-olympians-slam-dow/6602                                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/16 The Hindu and Times of India published reports on Monday's press conferences. The ToI article inferred the 1984 gas tragedy played a part in Bhopal producing fewer star hockey players than prior to the accident,    
and quoted Salim Abassi about not recovering from the gas effects that \"may have cut short\" his athletic career.                                                                                                             
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bhopal/Hockey-stars-decry-DOW-move-to-sponsor-Olympics/articleshow/10749075.cms                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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11/15-18 Global media: London Olympics - Coe defends LOCOG, Dow; BMA et al press event opposes sponsorship                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
AP reported Lord Coe testified at a Parliament hearing of the Culture, Media and Sport committee and stated LOCOG's commitment to and confidence in Dow as an Olympic sponsor and its ethics. This report did not mention    
the planned activist protest in London. Global pickups trended through mid-day U.S. time to more than 100 pickups.                                                                                                           
http://news.yahoo.com/london-olympic-organizers-wont-scrap-dow-deal-145242640.html                                                                                                                                           
 - An update was issued mid-afternoon to correct the third sentence stating Dow purchased the UCIL factory in Bhopal in 2001.                                                                                                
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2011/11/15/sports/s065232S11.DTL&type=business                                                                                                                              
 - A shorter version was also seen: http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/index.ssf/story/london-olympic-organizers-wont-scrap-dow-deal/e9f9eec28189496ba544ed04469c081f                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Several other sources issued reports, including BBC, AFP, the UK Press Association (UKAP), Channel 4, Guardian, the Labour Party and Morning Star UK.                                                                        
BBC issued two articles, one primarily on Coe's Parliamentary testimony to the Culture, Media and Sport Committee, the other on the activist protest and press release.                                                      
-   The Coe article included a brief background on Dow, the stadium wrap and Dow's purchase of UCC. Coe stated his satisfaction that Dow did not have any functional connection to the UCIL facility, and the Indian Supreme 
Court \"upheld on two previous occasions\" the validity of UCC's settlement for the Bhopal gas accident. Keith Vaz and Tessa Jowell voicing their concerns to Coe was also noted. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15745449  
-   The protest article is longer and quoted Sarangi for the Bhopal Group for Information and Action (BGIA), former Olympic hockey player Aslam Sher Khan, and unidentified Dow and Games 2012 spokespersons. Sarangi called 
Dow's sponsorship \"an dance on the graves of Bhopal gas victims\" and promised \"protest rallies in Bhopal, Delhi and London if necessary.\" Khan said India should \"lodge a strong protest,\" and he had written to the Indian  
Olympic Association, PM Singh and the Sports ministry.                                                                                                                                                                       
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-14443516                                                                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Agence France Presse reported Coe \"defended\" the Dow sponsorship, stated 15,000 as the death toll from the Bhopal gas tragedy, and that \"Dow bought Union Carbide in 2001 and has ever since denied responsibility\" for the  
gas accident. The opposition by \"several Indian athletes\" and Jowell's \"concern\" preface a quote from Coe that he is \"the grandson of an Indian so I am not completely unaware\" of the Bhopal issue, but stands by the       
sponsorship. Times of India is the only known pickup of this article at this time.                                                                                                                                           
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/events-tournaments/london-olympics/Olympics-Coe-defends-Dow-deal-in-face-of-Bhopal-protests/articleshow/10744820.cms                                                               
 - UK Press Association's version was very similar to the AFP wire report.                                                                                                                                                   
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5jbFhQthLXTmph8I12FZbBxBxBa-Q?docId=B35046781321366580A00                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Channel 4 UK news provided background on the wrap deal, the Bhopal accident and Dow's position on Bhopal. It introduced the campaign by a \"cross-party coalition of MPs, survivors and Indian Olympians\" opposing Dow's      
sponsorship, and mentioned the IOC's support of the sponsorship. MP Barry Gardiner, Chair of Labour Friends of India, and the leader of the activist coalition admitted LOCOG \"had set high environmental, social and        
ethical standards,\" but called the Dow contract decision \"a mistake and it must be set right.\"  This article tried to name the Dow spokesperson \"Scott Walker\" as the source of Dow's position statement.                    
http://www.channel4.com/news/row-over-olympic-sponsors-bhopal-links                                                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The Guardian posted a report on the wrap sponsorship issue and an online sports poll asking \"Should Olympic chiefs ditch Dow?\"  .                                                                                            
The article drew mainly from Coe's hearing testimony and questions from other MPs. Coe told the panel he had met with Vaz and Jowell, but \"insisted he had not heard anything\" from the Indian Olympic Committee about a     
potential boycott by India's athletes. Conservative MP Louise Mensch called LOCOG's decision on the Dow sponsorship \"very worrying,\" to which Coe responded LOCOG had \"looked at the issue very carefully\" and cited Dow's   
IOC global partner status.                                                                                                                                                                                                   
MP Steve Rotheram asked \"whether Dow could be replaced if the company did the 'honourable thing' and withdrew from sponsoring the wrap, the Locog chief executive, Paul Deighton, said it was 'getting very late' to do so   
and had no indication that the company would pull out.\"                                                                                                                                                                      
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/nov/15/olympic-dow-sponsorship-protests-mps http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/poll/2011/nov/15/olympics-2012-dow?newsfeed=true                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The Labour Party reported just Tessa Jowell's three points of concern she says \"Dow Chemical needs to urgently answer\":                                                                                                      
-  Is Dow's conduct since the UCC acquisition \"consistent with the Olympics' sustainability aims?\"                                                                                                                           
-  Did LOCOG seek input from other groups than Dow on the Bhopal issue?                                                                                                                                                      
-  \"...even if Dow win their legal battles against Bhopal survivors and the Indian Government, is there a reputational risk to London 2012 in their sponsorship of the Olympic Stadium wrap?\"\"                               
http://www.labour.org.uk/dow-chemical-needs-to-answer-questions-regarding-bhopal,2011-11-15                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
UK communist media Morning Star posted a brief report on LOCOG's commitment to Dow's sponsorship, the \"Indian athletes and rights organizations\" letters to LOCOG, and Dow's position on the Bhopal issue.                   
http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/news/content/view/full/111989                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/16 The Guardian published a report on the activist coalition press statement, with a little more detail on the activist groups and the campaign itself. The groups described Coe as \"stonewalling\" questions about the    
sponsorship. Coe's responses to the questions on the selection process and Dow's compliance with LOCOG requirements are also included. This article does not appear to be currently available online; full text available on 
request.                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/16 Indian media reported on Tuesday's events in London events.                                                                                                                                                            
- IBNS posted a report calling Dow's sponsorship \"tainted\" and said \"British MPs are up in arms\" over the issue, despite Coe's commitment to the stadium wrap deal. The wire story covered the activist coalition press      
statement and quoted from UK media on Coe describing Dow's selection. Dow's position statement is given at the end, and is unique in including the sentence regarding the MP state's control of the site and responsibility  
for remediation.                                                                                                                                                                                                             
http://www.indiablooms.com/SportsDetailsPage/2011/sportsDetails161111c.php                                                                                                                                                   
- ANI issued a short wire report on Coe's statements to the committee.                                                                                                                                                       
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/lord-coe-defends-blood-bhopal-dows-sponsorship-london-064028359.html                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/17 The Hindu summarized this week's media on the Dow Olympic sponsorship, drawing mainly from the activist coalition statements. Dow's position on Bhopal and Lord Coe's statements on the matter were included. The      
article appeared in the Delhi print edition.                                                                                                                                                                                 
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article2633719.ece                                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/17 The Independent published a column by Diane Abbott, MP for Hackney North and Stoke Newington and Shadow Public Health Minister, who complained the Games have \"lost touch with reality,\" and that corporate            
sponsorships have not helped the matter. She called Dow's sponsorship \"distinctly unhealthy.\"                                                                                                                                
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/diane-abbott-the-games-that-lost-touch-with-reality-6263191.html                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/18 Around the Rings published a Sponsor Spotlight report with a brief report on Lord Coe's statements defending the Dow sponsorship.                                                                                      
http://www.aroundtherings.com/articles/view.aspx?id=38533                                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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11/15-18 Local media: MDN, MLive, WNEM; UK local letters and columns                                                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/15 Local MIchigan media picked up the AP report on events in London regarding Dow's Olympic sponsorship, including MLive.com (Saginaw News), WNEM TV-5 websites, and the print edition of the Midland Daily News - p2     
across the fold on the left side.                                                                                                                                                                                            
http://www.mlive.com/newsflash/index.ssf/story/london-olympic-organizers-wont-scrap-dow-deal/e9f9eec28189496ba544ed04469c081f                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
11/17-18 Local UK media columns and letters addressed the Dow sponsorship and the Olympics in general.                                                                                                                       
 - Wharf.uk reported on the activist coalition press event. http://www.wharf.co.uk/2011/11/mps-urge-locog-to-ditch-deal-w.html                                                                                               
 - Scottish Daily Record columnist Joan Burnie used the Dow sponsorship controversy to complain about the Games overall as \"becoming more farcical, as well as expensive, by the day.\"                                       
http://blogs.dailyrecord.co.uk/joanburnie/2011/11/watching-our-money-go-up-in-olympic-flam.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheDailyRecord%2FJoanBurnie+%28The+Daily+Record+-+Joan+Burnie%29  
-  East End Advertiser published a letter by Agent Orange activist Len Aldis criticizing Dow's sponsorship and invoking the AO and napalm issues. Bhopal was not mentioned. Full text available on request.                  
 - East End Advertiser also published a comment that Bethnal Green and Bow MP Rushanara Ali \"has called upon\" LOCOG to \"rethink their use of the Dow Chemical Company as a stadium sponsor.\" Full text available on request. 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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11/14 Saginaw News: Reporter questions whether Bhopal \"shadow\" affects Dow                                                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Saginaw News posted an MLive.com article titled \"Is the Bhopal disaster still casting a shadow on Dow Chemical?\" by business and economic issues reporter Kathryn Lynch-Morin.                                               
The context of the article is Liveris' possibly being \"dropped from\" the Indo-US CEO Forum and the company's connection, or lack thereof, to the Bhopal gas tragedy.                                                         
Morin cited Dow statements regarding the CEO Forum, the Bhopal gas tragedy, and Responsible Care.                                                                                                                            
After mentioning the press statements in India regarding the ICJB's Olympic athlete petition, Lynch-Morin closed with:                                                                                                       
\"Is the Bhopal disaster still unfairly casting a shadow on Dow Chemical?\"                                                                                                                                                    
No comments were posted on this item.                                                                                                                                                                                        
http://www.mlive.com/business/mid-michigan/index.ssf/2011/11/is_the_bhopal_disaster_still_c.html                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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11/12 Hindustan Times: GoI cancelled registrations for four Dow Agrosciences products                                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Hindustan Times reported the registrations for the four DAS India pesticides that have been at issue in the De-Nocil cases have been cancelled by the GoI.                                                                   
http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-news/NewDelhi/Govt-bars-Dow-unit-from-selling-4-pesticides/Article1-768367.aspx                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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11/15 Ummid: Pervez Bari article on Olympics and standing activist allegations against Dow                                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Ummid published a long article by Indian Muslim reporter Pervez Bari, who folded together several topics regarding Bhopal.                                                                                                   
He started with the information from the Bhopal and Chennai press conferences, listed the 21 former Olympians who signed the ICJB petition, and text from the ICJB press statement. He included expanded comments from       
Dhingra saying the UK MPs actions are based on \"initiative of the BGIA\" (Bhopal Group for Information and Action).                                                                                                           
Bari revisited the activist allegations regarding Dow, its relationship to and responsibilities for UCC, the polluter pays principle, UCC's lease obligation to return the factory site to the MP govt \"in its original      
condition,\" the GoI court petition for Dow to fund the site remediation, and the activist claim of double standards and racist policies regarding UCC business in the US and India.                                          
http://ummid.com/news/2011/November/15.11.2011/olymipans_against_dow_chemicals.htm                                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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11/18 IANS, Telegraph: Greenpeace, \"Bhopal survivors\" object to new nuclear civil liabilities rules                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
India's Telegraph and IANS reported Greenpeace and \"Bhopal survivors\" reacted angrily at the terms of the GoI's Rules of the Civil Liability for Nuclear Damages Act that were issued on Thursday. \"Campaigners...warned of  
'another Bhopal'\" in terms of compensation and environmental contamination, should a nuclear facility accident occur. Greenpeace member Karuna Raina alleged the GoI places \"foreign interest...above the wellbeing of its   
people.\"                                                                                                                                                                                                                     
Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/india/8896591/India-angers-Bhopal-survivors-over-nuclear-decision.html                                                                                             
IANS: http://www.inewsone.com/2011/11/17/india-caved-in-to-foreign-pressure-on-nuclear-liability/90944                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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11/14 Asian Voice: Keith Vaz interview of Colin Toogood on Bhopal and BMA                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Asian Voice, a UK tabloid newspaper, published an interview with BMA's Toogood done by Keith Vaz. Toogood talked a little about his life before BMA, what he does for BMA, and long term goals. Dow is not                   
mentioned. Toogood focuses on providing services for the gas victims \"and hopefully the justice they deserve.\" He cited the \"ongoing environmental contamination\" and the \"second disaster\" of water contamination. He       
acknowledged BMA is a \"tiny charity,\" \"there is so little awareness\" of continuing issues in Bhopal, and people assume \"the Bhopal disaster was all resolved many years ago.\" Full text available on request.                
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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11/14-11/17 Independent, Socialist Party UK: BMHRC drug trials commentary                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
UK Independent posted two articles on the Bhopal Memorial Hospital and Research Center drug trials:                                                                                                                          
- The first focused on pharmaceutical companies using impoverished Indian people as \"guinea pigs,\" with one short paragraph on the drug trials. Full text available on request.                                              
- The second article was specific to the BMHRC. Writer Nina Lakhani said the information sources were \"secret reports\" showing \"drug trials funded by western pharmaceutical firms at the Indian hospital set up for         
survivors of the Bhopal disaster violated international ethical standards and could have put patients at risk.\"The reports cited are likely documents accessed by ICJB leader Rachna Dhingra via RTI requests that have been 
reported here previously. Dow is not mentioned, the article focuses on pharmaceutical companies including Theravance, Pfizer, GSK and Sanofi, and the drug trial practices at the hospital. Dhingra termed the conduct of    
the trials \"disgusting and appalling,\" and the Bhopal gas survivors who were subjected to the trials \"doubly victimized.\" A case study of Ramadhar Shrivastave is included; he is the same patient highlighted in recent     
media items about the drug trial controversy.                                                                                                                                                                                
http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/?rid=201028415&cat=hfu8sjsy4hjfjdha                                                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
- Daily News & Analysis published a commentary on Monday's broader Independent report on drug trials in India. Full text available on request.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
- The Socialist Party UK media also included a brief report on the BMHRC drug trials controversy.                                                                                                                            
http://www.socialistparty.org.uk/issue/694/13161/16-11-2011/fast-news                                                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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11/17 Hard News: activist RTI requests GoI documents on Anderson extradition                                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Indian media Hard News published a report on an activist's RTI requests to access GoI documents on the Warren Anderson extradition efforts. Afroz Alam Sahil was provided with CBI and Ministry of External Affairs          
documents from 1992-94, which he said indicated the agencies did not try to expedite the process.                                                                                                                            
The lengthy article mentioned the curative petition on Bhopal victims compensation was originally scheduled to begin hearings on Oct. 17, \"but it has been postponed.\"                                                       
http://www.hardnewsmedia.com/2011/11/4214                                                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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11/18 Derby Evening Telegraph: Animal's People review                                                                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The UK's Derby Evening Telegraph published a local book group review of Indra Sinha's novel Animal's People. Full text available on request.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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Bhopali film: Screenings scheduled in Amsterdam, Toronto, London, NYC, Pittsburgh, Boston                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Upcoming screenings scheduled for the Bhopali documentary include:                                                                                                                                                           
-        11/18-11/23, International Documentary Film Festival Amsterdam (IDFA) - four screenings: 11/18, 19, 20, 23. No indication whether either Carlson or Payalan will attend.                                            
-        11/25. Amnesty Int'l Film Festival - Toronto screening with Ellen Shifrin, ICJB North America advisory board member, also AI Toronto Business & Human Rights Team, and Aube Giroux, a Canadian activist filmmaker.  
-        11/30 Frontier Club, London. Writer and BMA co-founder Indra Sinha will attend (host/present?)                                                                                                                      
-        12/1 The Indie Screen in Brooklyn, NY                                                                                                                                                                               
-        12/1 Pittsburgh University, presented by AID Pittsburgh                                                                                                                                                             
-        12/2 Amnesty International Film Festival, Bloor Street United Church of Canada in Toronto                                                                                                                           
-        12/3 MIT campus at 6:30 p.m. \"followed by a Q&A with members of ICJB.                                                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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ICJB website: new front page layout; Rail Roko information/justification                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The front page of the ICJB website, Bhopal.net, front page has undergone a partial transition, with a new image of a Bhopal torch light rally and a reorganization of the information on the page. The site's interior pages 
do not appear to have changed.                                                                                                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The site was also updated with five pages of information regarding the Rail Roko protest that is planned for Bhopal on Dec. 3.                                                                                               
The posts include:                                                                                                                                                                                                           
- An appeal for readers to \"change your reservations now\" to avoid traveling by train on 12/3. The text includes an apology for the inconvenience, \"but stopping the trains is the only effective way we can think of to get 
our urgent and important message through to the prime minister & government.\"                                                                                                                                                
- The posts are all about compensation for the gas victims - the UCC settlement amount, how it was calculated, the GoI's \"promise to make amends for its betrayal in 1989\" with the curative petition on compensation, and   
the claimed inaccuracy of data submitted with the curative petition, as compared to ICMR data. Comparisons using charts and tables are made between settlements for the U.S. Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, the \"Mangalore rail     
crash,\" and \"Uphaar cinema fire.\"                                                                                                                                                                                            
- A page on \"the first betrayal\" claims Warren Anderson met with the Indian ambassador in Washington early in 1985 and was told the GoI \"had an open mind\" but wanted UCC \"to take the first step\" in proposing a            
settlement. A proposal was reportedly delivered at a subsequent \"top secret meeting\" between UCC, UCIL and GoI officials, followed by the formal proposal on March 4, 1985.                                                  
Full text attached.                                                                                                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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BMA website: media items on Dow's Olympic sponsorship; play day for Chingari Trust children                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
BMA posted four new items on its website, including three of the recent media items on Dow's Olympic sponsorship:                                                                                                            
-        An excerpt from the Independent's initial article on Tuesday, 11/15, with the title \"Coe shrugs off Bhopal protest.\"                                                                                                
-        The Guardian's poll on whether LOCOG should drop Dow's sponsorship.                                                                                                                                                 
-        The Channel 4 article on the sponsorship issue.                                                                                                                                                                     
-        Photos and description of a picnic and play day for Chingari Trust children at a park in Bhopal.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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Amnesty: Bhopal presentation slides for Group 133; Annual Write-A-Thon on Dec. 11                                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The Amnesty Group 133 (Somerville, MA) message board posted the slides from Leonid Chindelevitch's ICJB presentation Nov. 8. The 28 slides do not contain much new information. The Olympics campaign plan is the same that  
was posted on the AID Boston chapter minutes from 10/23. The new items are:                                                                                                                                                  
  * Dates for local events - 12/3  Bhopali documentary screening at MIT; a workshop on 11/13 \"on activism-life balance\" - by Hillary Rettig.                                                                                 
  * The 'Plan of Action\" reiterated:                                                                                                                                                                                         
       * \"reach out - US Olympians, Dow victims from all 5 continents, Allies (Amnesty International, AID, Agent Orange, Greenpeace, BMA, etc)                                                                               
       * \"Mobilize awareness on Dec 3rd and 10th                                                                                                                                                                             
       * \"Hold parallel Olympics for Dow victims                                                                                                                                                                             
       * \"Strategy via the Olympic organizing committee\" (no further explanation of this)                                                                                                                                    
  * A victory over \"Dow's hypocrisy\" was claimed because 6 ICJB members \"disrupted\" the Live Earth Run in 2010 and \"It was not held again in 2011!\"                                                                          
  * Past events mentioned included the walks from Bhopal to Delhi and the \"B'eau Pal Water\" Yes Men/BMA prank                                                                                                                
Due to the file size, the slides are available on request.                                                                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Amnesty Group 133 plans to hold its Annual Global Write-A-Thon on Sunday, Dec. 11 in the Center Court of Boston's Prudential Building. The ICJB Boston action plan regarding Dow's Olympics sponsorship includes Dec. 10,    
World Human Rights Day, as an action date this year. Given Chindelevitch's recent presentation, the public event is a candidate for some type of ICJB activity.                                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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Change.org petition now over 1,000 signatures                                                                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
As of Nov. 18, the Change.org petition addressed to Lord Coe currently has about 1,030 signatures.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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Activist email: Dhingra, Edwards send media items to Remember-Bhopal list                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Rachna Dhingra emailed to the Remember-Bhopal distribution list the full text of Tuesday's Independent article claiming \"secret reports\" as the source material for reporting on the BMHRC drug trials.                      
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Dhingra and Tim Edwards each emailed Wednesday's poll URL to the \"Remember-Bhopal\" distribution list and encouraged recipients to vote \"Yes.\"                                                                                
Edwards also emailed 8 URLs for a \"selection of UK coverage\" on Tuesday.                                                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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AID: new chapter at George Washington Univ.                                                                                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
There is a new AID chapter at George Washington University in Washington, D.C. No details have been released about the group, other than it was founded \"with the help of a few AID JHU (Johns Hopkins Univ) students.\"      
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
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Message boards: Games Monitor; Chennai and Delhi enviro groups                                                                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The Games Monitor watchdog blog and message board posted Tuesday's BMA press announcement and Times of India's report on Coe's hearing testimony on the Dow sponsorship.                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
ICJB activist Shweta Nayaran shared the Guardian poll link on the message boards for the Chennai-based environmental group Lets Save Our Oceans and Reclaim Our Beaches, and the IITD4Bhopal IIT Delhi group.                
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Blogs: BMA volunteer Ian Jarvis updates on life at clinic                                                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Sambhavna Clinic volunteer therapist Ian Jarvis posted a Week 11 diary update about life at the clinic. His main topics are the Muslim Eid festival, and challenges of electrical power access at the clinic.                
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Social media: BMA Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube; anti-Dow Olympics Facebook                                                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
BMA's Facebook page was updated with the same three posts as the website:                                                                                                                                                    
-       An excerpt from the Independent's initial article on Tuesday, 11/15, with the title \"Coe shrugs off Bhopal protest.                                                                                                  
-       The Guardian's poll on whether LOCOG should drop Dow's sponsorship.                                                                                                                                                  
-       The Channel 4 article on the sponsorship issue.                                                                                                                                                                      
The page also included a link to the Hindustan Times article from 11/12 about GoI cancelling registrations for the four DAS India products. Photojournalist Jack Laurenson posted several comments criticizing Dow's Olympic 
sponsorship and remarks made by Lord Coe regarding the issue.                                                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
BMA's Twitter account tweeted the link to the Guardian's poll, announcing that 91.6% thought Dow should be removed as a sponsor. The account also posted several links to recent media, and a link to the Bhopali Facebook   
announcement of the film screening at MIT on Dec. 1.                                                                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Al Jazeera's video report on the anti-Dow UK activists was \"liked\" by BMA on YouTube.                                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The anti-Dow Olympic sponsorship Facebook page has many of the same posts as the BMA page, and a few others.                                                                                                                 
-        Rosalind Hardie posted a link to the KIM Foundation, with the comment \"Dow were also manufacturers of Agent Orange and Napalm used against civilians in the Vietnam War.\"                                           
-        Lorraine Close posted the Ecologist article on the PAN people's tribunal session about the agrichemical companies                                                                                                   
-        Close also remarked her Change.org petition exceeded 1,000 signatures, and asked for continued sharing of the link to it.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Yes Men: Yes Lab actions at APEC in Hawai'i; Bonanno to conduct Yes Lab in Sweden 12/14-16; Mark Rudd at Yes Lab 11/17                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The Yes Men reported a Yes Lab action took place at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) conference in Honolulu, Hawai'i on 11/12, where Occupy Hawai'i activist and \"renowned guitarist Makana\" was to perform      
instrumental music, but instead sang a protest song he called \"We Are the Many\" and displayed a shirt reading \"Occupy With Aloha.\" The audience included heads of states from the U.S., China, Canada, Indonesia and         
elsewhere.                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
The prank received local media coverage in the Honolulu Star Advertiser, as well as blog posts by the Yes Men.                                                                                                               
http://www.staradvertiser.com/s?action=login&f=y  (requires subscription or available on request)                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Univ. of Hawai'i  Manoa media Ka Leo had reported successively on Yes Man Mike Bonanno's appearances in the state at the \"alterna* APEC's Forum(to)Festival\" event Nov. 9-13. Bonanno encouraged forum participants to       
respond creatively to \"give APEC the attention it deserves.\" There was no mention of Makana as a forum participant.                                                                                                          
http://www.kaleo.org/news/forum-encourages-creative-response-to-apec-1.2667628                                                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
Bonanno is scheduled to appear on Dec. 14 at Stockholm arts blog Sugarcube Gallery to lecture and \"conduct a yeslab [sic] in various sites, including KKH, Sugarcube and Stockholm at large.\" Bonanno's visit is to be Dec.  
14-16. The event is \"part of the Budget Recalcitrance Program conceived by Amanda Newall at the Royal Institute of Art.\"                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
The Nov. 17 Occupy Wall Street day of action was promoted by the Yes Lab blog, which concurrently announced the week's \"Revolutionaries Live!\" speaker was Mark Rudd, who was a \"national symbol of student revolt\" as part  
of the SDS faction the Weathermen in the 1960s..                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table of Contents 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             
                                                                                            Allis Information Management, Inc..                                                                                              

   Please remove me from this mailing list.

    
","2011-11-19 00:39:50",1,"2012-02-27 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/407784_dow-confidential-bhopal-monitoring-report-friday-november-18.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","mongoven@stratfor.com","attach/35/35124_Activist email 11-14-11 ICJB press release.pdf
attach/35/35125_Activist info 11-14-11 ICJB Olympian Endorsements.pdf
attach/35/35128_Activist info 11-14-11 ICJB athlete petition.pdf
attach/35/35551_Activist info 11-17-11 ICJB - Rail Roko.pdf
attach/37/37070_PAN_-_PPT_press_release_11-14-11.pdf
attach/37/37073_Activist_info_11-12-11_BMA_press_statement.pdf
attach/37/37074_PPT_AgChem_case_summary_11-16-11.pdf"
408316,"Bhopal update - 11-30-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   UK media continued reporting on the IOA not voting on an Olympic boycott,
   with the latest items including a comment from Lord Coe: \"I have very,
   very close links with the Indian national Olympic committee and I have
   never had any sense at all, privately or publicly, that there was any
   appetite for a boycott.\"

   Articles have been seen the Guardian, the Mirror, some local/regional
   outlets and a few international outlets. The texts are all very similar.

   Guardian: 
   http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/nov/29/lord-coe-india-boycott-london-2012?newsfeed=true

   Midland Daily News today has the AP article from Monday, located on page
   A3 at the top.

   Indian sports media SportzPower published an article reporting the IOA
   meeting on 12/5 \"is not going to happen,\" partly because IOA secretary
   general Raja Randhir Singh will be traveling to Lausanne, Switzerland that
   day. Unidentified \"top sources\" also indicated none of the former
   Olympians who signed are IOA members, and that none of the active athletes
   \"have written anything\" about the Dow sponsorship.

   This article reported the IOC \"has been circulating\" a document with
   background on the Bhopal gas accident and subsequent activities of the
   Indian governments and UCC \"to place on the table the facts of the case
   against the detractors, who are linking Dow Chemical Company with Union
   Carbide Company.\"

   http://www.sportzpower.com/?q=content/dow-chemicals-issue-no-concern-ioa-has-no-issue-london-2012-0

   Marketing Week published a commentary about Olympic sponsorships in
   general, that sponsoring companies comprise \"a veritable rogues gallery of
   the corporate reputation that hardly adheres to the Olympic motto of
   `faster, higher, stronger.\" BP, Lloyds TSB and Thomas Cook are named in
   this regard. Further comment includes: \"Today, most of the companies big
   enough to afford an Olympic sponsorship and desperate enough to seek out
   global recognition are often those most in need of reputational rescue.\"

   -       Tim Edwards emailed a link to the article to the Remember-Bhopal
   distribution list and included the last item quoted.

   http://www.marketingweek.co.uk/opinion/the-olympic-rings-hide-a-multitude-of-sins/3032347.article

   IBNS published the ICJB press statement about Sambhavna staff
   participation in the Bhopal anniversary events. DNA published a brief item
   from that.

   PTI reported Abdul Jabbar \"threatened of holding a dharna\" on 12/2-3 at CM
   Chouhan's residence as an anniversary observance. Jabbar addressed the
   media, complaining the \"district court\" has \"a total lack of seriousness\"
   in hearing the case on enhancing the sentences in the Bhopal criminal
   case. He also said the GoI and MP state have not implemented the several
   projects or programs for the gas victims that have been announced \"in the
   last 18 months.\"

   http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_bhopal-gas-tragedy-organisation-accuses-centre-state-of-inaction_1619422

   In Nagpur, the Hitavada reported DRDO joint director, Dr. G P Meshram,
   presented at an Indo Finland workshop at NEERI on \"The Genomic Tools in
   Bio-remediation.\" The Hitavada asked Meshram about possible applications
   of bio-remediation for the Bhopal factory waste, to which he apparently
   responded positively. (The writing and grammar are not entirely clear.)
   Full text available on request.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-11-30 18:51:55",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/408316_bhopal-update-11-30-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
408906,"Bhopal update - 07-26-11
","   Scot, Tomm,

   The Bhopal gas NGOs held a \"huge rally\" (photo in DNA paper looks like
   300-400 people), marched from the Bhopal Talkies theatre and presented to
   the Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister and Governor a memo for Prime Minister
   Singh calling for the curative petition on compensation and the UCC
   settlement to be revised with \"facts and figures consistent with the
   actual damage caused by the disaster.\" Rachna Dhingra was quoted on behalf
   of the Bhopal Group for Information and Action, offering to \"point out
   lacunae [gaps/holes] in the curative petition.\"

   She said the current form of the curative petition \"would only serve to
   misinform the Supreme Court regarding the extent of damage caused by the
   corporation and it would thus be an obstruction to the delivery of justice
   to the Bhopal victims.\"

   The DNA article was not found online, but the Daily Pioneer also reported
   on the protest. DNA's coverage was on p5 of the Indore edition at the top
   of the page with one short column of text and a 3-column wide photo.

   http://www.dailypioneer.com/355968/Gas-tragedy-survivors-submit-memorandum-to-Guv-seek-PMs-intervention.html

   Mail Today published an editorial comment on the curative petition and
   called for it to be \"withdrawn from the Supreme Court, amended suitably
   and filed again.\"

   The article was not found online.

   Al Jazeera published a lengthy article by high-profile activist Vandana
   Shiva in which she cited the Bhopal gas disaster as an example of
   corporations as sources of \"toxic pollution.\" The article was a general
   condemnation of capitalism and the current Indian administration.

   http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/07/2011722134648714404.html

   CSR Wire published a review by Elaine Cohen of a book titled \"Corporate
   Social Responsibility: An Ethical Approach,\" by Mark Schwarz. Cohen wrote:
   \"The heart of the book, however, is a grand debate between Milton Friedman
   and The Body Shop positions on a range of CSR-related case studies\" and
   the Bhopal gas tragedy is grouped with the Johnson & Johnson Tylenol
   contamination incident and \"the river blindness story and Merck, the
   pharmaceutical company.\"

   http://www.csrwire.com/blog/posts/65-a-review-of-corporate-social-responsibility-an-ethical-approach

   Express News Service reported a film festival at Thiruvananthapuram will
   include \"After the Genocide,\" based on the Bhopal tragedy. (This film is
   not familiar to me) 
   http://expressbuzz.com/cities/thiruvananthapuram/old-partner-to-be-opening-film/297801.html

   The BMA website posted the India Today article on the NGOs' press
   statement about the compensation and mortality/morbidity figures, and
   posted Twitter and Facebook links to the post.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-07-26 17:11:41",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/408906_bhopal-update-07-26-11-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
408954,"Re: Ambassador Djalal
","   You guys need a life. Or dinner on my deck when temp goes down 10 or 20
   degrees. And you both hang out with women who are way beyond your low
   stations in life. As do I. K
    
   From: Karl Rove [mailto:kr@rove.com]
   Sent: Sunday, September 04, 2011 07:43 PM
   To: George Friedman <gfriedman@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Kerry Cammack
   Subject: Re: Ambassador Djalal
    
   I've been doing it for years and little has helped
   On Sep 4, 2011, at 7:38 PM, George Friedman wrote:

     Thanks. I'm already doing damage control on teh Cammack matter.

     On 09/04/11 19:30 , Karl Rove wrote:

       will do -- he has a call into me as well
       I will tell him you inquired and then make it happen
       both of us need to worry about what the public knowledge that we know
       Cammack could do to our respective reputations
       On Sep 4, 2011, at 6:45 PM, George Friedman wrote:

         Karl:

         Dino Djalal is the Indonesian Ambassador to the United States and
         someone I have known for a bit.  On a trip to Jakarta where I met
         with the President, he approached me asking whether I could help in
         arranging a visit for him with President Bush in order to offer his
         formal gratitude for improving relations with Indonesia during his
         administration. I gathered that this visit was of importance to his
         President who is deeply grateful to President Bush and wants it
         formally transmitted.

         I said that I would do what I could, which in m case consists of
         bringing the matter to Kerry's attention.  I certainly am not aware
         of all of the dynamics here, but I do know that President Bush was
         regarded very fondly in Indonesia during my visit. I do not think
         there is any hidden agenda in this.  Should such a visit be
         possible, it would certainly please the Ambassador and President of
         Indonesia.

         If there is any way I can help facilitate this, please let me know. 
         Thank you for your help in advance.

         Best,

         George Friedman
         On 09/04/11 13:01 , Kerry Cammack wrote:

           George, please contact Karl to coordinate the request you are
           honoring from the Indonesian ambassador to the US for a courtesy
           call and visit with President Bush.  Karl believes the President
           would favorably respond to the request but of course that is
           contingent on timing and other scheduling commitments.  Karl, the
           ambassador is a friend of Georgei? 1/2s who has reached out to 
           him for assistance in arranging this meeting.  Thanks for helping
           my friend George respond to this request.   Best,  Kerry

            

           Kerry N. Cammack

           Cammack & Strong, P.C.

           919 Congress Avenue, Suite 1400

           Austin, TX 78701

           Tele:(512) 472-9919

           Fax:(512) 476-6441

            

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         George Friedman

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         STRATFOR

         221 West 6th Street

         Suite 400

         Austin, Texas 78701

          

         Phone: 512-744-4319

         Fax: 512-744-4334

          

     --

     George Friedman

     Founder and CEO

     STRATFOR

     221 West 6th Street

     Suite 400

     Austin, Texas 78701

      

     Phone: 512-744-4319

     Fax: 512-744-4334

      
","2011-09-05 04:16:21",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/408954_re-ambassador-djalal-.html","kncammack@cammacklaw.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,kr@rove.com",""
409205,"Bhopal update - 08-08-11 media
","   Scot, Tomm,

   Coverage of the activist displeasure over the Olympic stadium wrap is
   mainly in India at this point in time.

   Chemical Week, however, published an article by Alex Scott that is more
   critical of the wrap's sustainability than the Bhopal issue. Scott
   referred to the Express Sunday article \"Olympic Stadium `is Stained by the
   Blood of Bhopal\" and wrote, \"Dow purchased Union Carbide several years ago
   and with it the burden of any outstanding  blame for the accident.\" He
   also said, \"Some environmental experts I have talked to are not
   particularly impressed by the Wrap material, however\"; but he did not cite
   anyone in particular. Scott is CW's Executive Editor, Web and Environment.

   http://www.chemweek.com/chem_ideas/Alex-Scott/Dow-Olympic-Wrap-Shrouded-in-Criticism-too-Much-Looking-Back-or-Not-Enough-Looking-Forward_36770.html

   PTI reported they received a statement from the London Olympic Committee
   defending the Dow sponsorship, saying \"\"It is a matter of record that the
   plant at the time of this human tragedy was not owned by Dow Chemical. Dow
   was appointed as the supplier of the wrap following a rigorous procurement
   process.  All of our suppliers must work within our own sustainable
   sourcing code and reflect our values and sustainability requirements.\"

   The report combined the LOC statement; Dow's press information on the
   wrap; Rachna Dhingra's comment on the \"message to Seb Coe\" and Dow's \"PR
   machine working for them day and night; Greenpeace's characterization of
   the sponsorship as \"offensive\"; and BMA activist Lorrain Close's comment
   regarding \"abuse and neglect\" of \"some of the poorest people, while being
   positively reinforced by Olympic organizers and the UK government.\"
   Multiple pickups by online media.

   http://www.asianage.com/india/dow-chemicals-icing-cake-london-olympics-activists-furious-392

   Print edition coverage

   -       Hindustan Times' front pages of all four English language editions
   today had the in-house report by Depankar De Sarkar. The Kolkata edition
   had the article at as the lead story with the child's funeral image, while
   New Delhi, Mumbai and Chandigarh editions placed the piece at the bottom
   of the page with a photo of the Olympic stadium.

   -       HT's sports also had the hockey players' reactions condemning the
   Olympics deal.  New Delhi - p18 top, Kolkata - p16 top, Chandigarh - p13
   bottom, Mumbai - p18 middle below the fold

   -       Times of India's Mumbai edition had an introduction to the
   Olympics story on the bottom of the front page, the story on p22

   -       Economic Times had the ANI report on p4 in a \"pitch report\" column
   and a \"thumbs down\" rating.

   NewsXLive posted a 49-second video report on YouTube: a London anchor read
   bullet points from activist statement over images from the 1984 gas leak:

   \"campaigners outraged\"; \"Children in the city [Bhopal] are still being
   born maimed\" and activists called for \"widespread protest\" and \"Bhopal
   Olympics.\" Only Greenpeace was specifically cited, with text shown from GP
   spokesperson Arundhati Muthu. Fewer than a dozen views at 8 a.m.

   IBNS reported the ICJB will be joining anti-corruption activist Anna
   Hazare in agitations over the GoI's anti-corruption bill that they
   \"condemn.\" Protests over this are planned in Bhopal on Tuesday \"at the
   Union Carbide factory,\" and unspecified \"solidarity action in Bhopal from
   August 16.\" The ICJB is again raising the issue of \"irregularities in the
   purchase of medicine for gas victims.\" They had held a 19-day fast in
   March 2007 over this, which resulted in several being charged with
   attempted suicide, which have not been resolved. The survivors groups
   claim the Ministry of Bhopal Gas Tragedy has \"sabotaged\" the Supreme
   Court's Monitoring Committee that was supposed to have oversight.

   http://www.indiablooms.com/NewsDetailsPage/newsDetails080811k.php

   AlterNet picked up the Al Jazeera report on pharmaceutical testing on poor
   populations in India, including at the Bhopal Memorial Hospital and
   Research Center.

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-08-08 17:53:50",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/409205_bhopal-update-08-08-11-media-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
410181,"FW: Manning & Wiki Founder Arrest/Prosecution?
","   Holy crap, we're passing Fred's rantings to confederation partners?

    

    

    

   From: Emre Dogru [mailto:emre.dogru@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, December 03, 2010 3:37 AM
   To: burton
   Cc: Confederation
   Subject: Fwd: Manning & Wiki Founder Arrest/Prosecution?

    

   Hey Fred, one of our confed partners (Sabah daily) would like to use this
   information without any attribution. But he just wonders if your source
   used \"fry\" in the sense that Manning should be executed by electrocution,
   or does it mean something else in intel business lingo?

    

   Thanks

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>, \"TACTICAL\"
   <tactical@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, December 2, 2010 8:16:14 PM
   Subject: Manning & Wiki Founder Arrest/Prosecution?

   >From a very senior man @ the FBI -- (not for attribution to the FBI pls)

   ------------------------------------------------------------------

   There is no way the administration wants to put him on trial.  That
   would be a huge circus.  Manning should fry and hopefully will

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-03 11:54:04",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/410181_fw-manning-and-wiki-founder-arrest-prosecution-.html","scott.stewart@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com",""
410270,"Wikileaks Weekly Comments Compiled
"," --
 Matthew Powers
 STRATFOR Researcher
 Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
","2010-12-13 17:56:59",1,"2012-02-29 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/410270_wikileaks-weekly-comments-compiled-.html","matthew.powers@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,analysts@stratfor.com","attach/37/37263_Wikileaks Weekl - Comments Compiled.doc"
410485,"Article on Wikileaks
","","2011-01-11 08:09:05",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/410485_article-on-wikileaks-.html","generalhamidgul@gmail.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com","attach/37/37276_Aljazeera Wikileaks.pdf"
412101,"Fwd: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power
 struggle, etc. - VZ302
","     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: watchofficer@statfor.com
   Sent: Monday, December 5, 2011 9:13:24 PM
   Subject: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA - Update on Chavez's health, power struggle,
   etc. - VZ302

   SOURCE: VZ302
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: well-connected VZ source working with Israel
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B - source is anti-Chavez, but I've gotten better at
   reading him over the years to tell when he's feeding me shit and when he's
   giving useful info - his info on the VZ regime has checked out, but i tend
   to be more skeptical on iran-related info
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha, scrub source info and also make sure rest of
   latam team sees this
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   Chavez's health - the tumor started as a growth close to the prostate, it
   spread to the colon, which is what led to a lot of confusion in the OS
   about the treatment of prostate v. colon cancer  in hormonal v.
   chemotherapy. A reliable source on the medical has explained that the
   cancer has spread to the lymph nodes and into the bone marrow up to the
   spine, ie. very serious.

   Chavez temporarily stopped the chemo in order to make an appearance at the
   recent CELAC meeting.  The medical team is made up of both Russian and
   Cuban doctors. Both sides are clashing.  THe Russian team blamed the
   Cubans for an improper surgery the first time in trying to remove the
   tumor. The second surgery over the summer was basically the Russian team
   trying to clean up the Cuban team's mistakes. The Russians complain that
   the Cubans dont have the right imagery treatment to properly treat
   Chavez.  The Cuban medical diagnosis is 2 years. The Russian medical
   diagnosis, due to improper medical equipment, is less than one year. The
   source on the medical team complains that Chavez is a very 'bad patient.'
   He doesn't listen to his doctors, he ceases treatment when he has to make
   a public appearance. Now the Russian and the Chinese doctors are going at
   it because Chavez sought hte advice of a Chinese doctor that advocates
   more natural treatments and the Russians are saying this is horse shit
   treatment. only chavez can get the most politicized medical team in the
   world.
   (note - if you see medical reports on Chavez's health in WSJ or Brazil's
   Veja magazine, it's probably coming from this source.)

   Who replaces Chavez?
   I would keep my eye on FM Nicolas Maduro. Maduro is loyal as a dog to
   Chavez. (the source knows Maduro personally, from the days that Maduro was
   a driver of the metro bus.)  At the same time, maduro is seen as the most
   pragmatic in the regime.  If Chavez's health deteriorates significantly
   before the scheduled Oct 2012 elections, expect him to proclaim Maduro as
   his successor in one way or another. You can already see him propping up
   Maduro in a lot of ways. This is less risky than Chavez going through with
   elections, winning, suddenly dying and then a power struggle among the
   Chavistas breaking out. It will be much harder in this latter scenario for
   Maduro to assert himself against rival Chavistas like Diosdado Cabello,
   Rafiel Ramirez, etc.

   Remember that there are four key players propping up the regime - China,
   Cuba, Russia, Iran. All four are split on how to manage a post-Chavez
   regime. China and Russia are more insulated, as they've tried to get away
   from Chavez the personality, to preserving Chavismo, the regime. Russia
   has set up a specific task force (note the Patrushev visits) to help
   manage the post-chavez transition. Both China and Russia are backing
   Maduro as their preferred successor. Cuba, however, is in trouble.  They
   can't count on a Maduro to continue subsidizing them with thousands of
   barrels of oil every day. No one is really paying attention to Cuba - they
   can;t count on the Europeans for investment. Without VZ, they're screwed.
   The Cubans so far have been backing Adan Chavez (Chavez's brother) as the
   preferred candidate, but he doesnt have the same following. Cuba may shift
   to backing Maduro. (At this point in the convo, i brought up the
   possibility of Cuba, having the best intel on VZ, using that intel to
   leverage with the US and open up its options - he agreed that's what the
   Castros will do to survive but he hasnt seen serious signs of this.. yet.)

   Maduro is seen as more of a Lula candidate. He has a following, he has
   charisma, but he's also a balancer. He's the kind of guy that would open
   up to the US and keep tight with everyone else, but that still makes Iran
   nervous.  The source seems to think that Obama in his second term would
   open up to Maduro (and this is something that he is actively working on.)

   The opposition -
   Venezuela is divided into 5 different strata - A, B, C, D, E - A ++ is the
   elite of the elite, the boli-bourgeoisie that that Chavez has very
   successfully vilified. Chavez doesn't give a shit about these guys. His
   base is the D and E.
   Capriles Radonski, Leopoldo Lopez, Maria Corina Machado are all the A++ -
   way too elitist. They can't win over the chavista vote.
   The only one that has a real chance is Pablo Perez - Zulia governor - he's
   actually seen as one of the people.  The conversation between him adn the
   Castros is jsut starting up. (i asked if Perez is talking to Maduro yet -
   he says not yet.)

   guess who has been most cooperative with us lately?   The military elite. 
   These guys have been living the good life. They love women... lots of
   women. THey love booze. They love bora bora. They are easy to bribe. They
   dont care about chavez. they care about maintaining their current
   lifestyles. We've seen a lot of these military elite reach out to us
   lately, trying to insulate themselves in a post-Chavez scenario.

   This is why you'll see Chavez investing a lot of time and money in
   developing the militia. They're his best insurance policy. The more of a
   problem the militia can create on the streets, the more the military elite
   will hestiate before acting against him or his potential successor.

   The intent of the ley de precios is very simple. The money laundering
   schemes in food, pharmaceuticals, energy parts, etc. etc. have gotten
   worse./ Completely unchecked.  This price controls law is the government's
   way of controlling opposition campaign spending. Very straightforward -
   they have the legal justification to intimidate corporations into cutting
   back their support for the opposition, or else, their company is taken
   over. This will allow the state more control of the private sector.

   (side note) - we were talking a bit about a recent PdVSA-Iran joint
   venture. They shifted their main base of operations from Caracas to
   Ankara, though. This has become a trend lately, where a lot of Iran's
   sanctions circumventing oeprations in VZ are quietly being relocated to
   Turkey. Part of Turkey's balancing act with Iran.

   these were the main points. will update with more..little fuzzy from wine
   right now.
","2011-12-06 03:14:51",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/412101_fwd-insight-venezuela-update-on-chavez-s-health-power.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com",""
412522,"Bhopal update 12-02-11 Media 2
","   Scot, Tomm,

   The Hindu reported on the letter to LOCOG signed by MPs, \"celebrities\" and
   others. Prof. Noam Chomsky is quoted in this item, describing the Bhopal
   gas victims as having \"every right to expect us to join them in their
   courageous efforts\" at enforcing accountability for \"one of the worst
   corporate crimes in history, and to gain some compensation for their
   suffering.\" Gardiner and Livingstone are also quoted on the rationale for
   asking LOCOG to reconsider Dow's sponsorship.

   http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/article2681773.ece

   The Hindu's Business Line expanded on the reporting on the above-mentioned
   letter, quoting Ken Livingstone, apparently from today's press conference
   in London:

   \"We will certainly be looking at the possibility of a legal challenge. If
   we can't afford a wrap for the stadium I'd rather not have one than have
   one contaminated by the death of 25,000 people.\"

   Coe's statement of confidence in Dow not having liabilities for the Bhopal
   gas leak, and a brief rendition of the history of the stadium wrap
   conclude the article.

   http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/article2681580.ece?ref=wl_agri-biz

   Daily Mail posted a series of photos from the day's protests in Bhopal,
   showing the Coe, Malhotra and stadium effigies prior to and while being
   burned; an official photo of Coe; and images of the protesters.

   http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2069167/Sebastian-Coe-effigy-burned-Bhopal-protesters-furious-chemical-firms-links-2012-London-Olympics.html

   Indian media have reported further on the rail roko event planned for
   Saturday.

   -       The Hindu reported Rachna Dhingra said the NGOs have been talking
   with the government for six months about changing the data used in the
   curative petition on compensation. The groups intend to keep the trains
   stopped until the GoI capitulates to their demand.

   http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article2681980.ece

   -       Daily Pioneer reported details of locations where the blockades
   are likely to occur. Law enforcement is to be deployed. Activist
   Balkrishna Namdeo said the protests are to be non-violent, but they are
   willing to be arrested.

   http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25028-voluntary-organisations-call-for-rail-roko-today.html

   Daily Pioneer reported BJP state president and MP Prabhat Jha claimed
   solidarity with the gas NGOs and said the government should do more for
   them.

   http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/24937-bjp-fight-for-gas-tragedy-victims-will-continue-jha.html

   Indian media also reported on other stories related to the anniversary
   protests: the ICJB press statements and the effigy burnings. Daily Pioneer
   reported Navin Shah said now he has begun a petition asking \"people from
   India and UK to create pressure on LOCOG to reconsider its position.\"

   http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/bhopal/25022-protestors-burn-olympic-games-partners-effigies.html

   The UK's Guardian environment blog reported on the PAN People's Tribunal
   \"trial of pesticide companies\" that begins in Bangalore on Saturday. The
   blog post focuses on bee colony collapse syndrome that is blamed on
   neonicotiniod pesticides.

   http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2011/dec/02/pesticides-bees?newsfeed=true

   The Friday Indian print editions included two items on Daily News &
   Analysis' Bhopal page in the Indore edition. One reported on the Chingari
   Trust children's rally held on Dec. 1 to commemorate the Bhopal accident
   anniversary, the other reported the ICMR's call for research proposals to
   study the long term effects of MIC exposure in the gas tragedy victims has
   only received two responses, so the submission deadline has been extended
   to Dec. 31.

   -       Two Hindustan Times editions - New Delhi and Chandigarh - included
   the article \"British MPs want Dow ousted.\" Both were in the sports
   sections off to the right side of the page - one at the top and the other
   across the fold.

   Also, Sports Illustrated columnist Brian Cazeneuve updated and corrected
   Thursday's post about the London Olympics and Dow's sponsorship.

   http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/brian_cazeneuve/11/30/Olympic-Notebook/index.html?eref=si_more

   Ann Sigsby

   Senior Analyst

   Allis Information Management

   www.allisinfo.com

   989-835-5811

   The pages comprising this e-mail contain CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION from
   Allis Information Management, Inc. This information is intended solely for
   use by the individual entity named as the recipient, be aware that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or use of the contents of this e-mail
   is strictly prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error, please
   forward back to the sender immediately.    
","2011-12-03 00:38:10",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/412522_bhopal-update-12-02-11-media-2-.html","asigsby@allisinfo.com","","sbwheeler@dow.com,tomm_sprick@yahoo.com,mediarelations@unioncarbide.com,CMKnochel@dow.com",""
448795,"WEB ALERT! Stratfor Corp Site
","   Submit_Date: 08-16-06 17:24

   FormID: Contact_Us_StratforCom

   Salutation: Mr

   FirstName: Fabio

   LastName: Cajueiro

   Phone: 55-21-2299-2111

   Email: fabcaj@policiamilitar.rj.gov.br

   HowDidYouHear: Magazine

   Message:

   I received an e-mail from a military officer here in Brazil, with this
   message:
   \"Exclusivo * Os estrategistas do Palacio do Planalto entraram em panico
   com o teor explosivo de um documento tambem enviado ao Senado, na
   quarta-feira passada, pela entidade denominada *Para o Bem da America
   Latina*, abastecida de informac,oes pelo servic,o internacional da CIA, a
   agencia central de inteligencia dos Estados Unidos. A entidade enviou ao
   presidente Lula da Silva e aos senadores um dossie denunciando que a
   corrupc,ao no Brasil esta financiando o crime organizado e o terrorismo.

   O documento cita nominalmente os responsaveis por uma grande movimentac,ao
   de *dinheiro sujo* que sai do Brasil para o exterior. Foram denunciados:
   tres governadores, 25 deputados, 178 prefeitos, 133 desembargadores e 245
   juizes. A entidade calcula que a rede de corrupc,ao conte com 2.500
   funcionarios dos poderes Judiciario, Legislativo e Executivo. O maior
   problema e que o esquema estaria financiando a ac,ao de grupos
   terroristas, que promovem as recentes ac,oes de guerrilha urbana no Pais.

   O documento ao Senado deixa bem claro: *O relatorio e para alertar todos
   os senadores sobre a real situac,ao que a Presidencia da Republica esta
   omitindo, por conta da campanha eleitoral. A maior cidade da America do
   Sul esta sitiada por uma celula terrorista. Esperam-se ataques de grandes
   proporc,oes ate as eleic,oes*. O quadro preocupa a *Aguia*. A Secretaria
   de Estado dos EUA, Condoleezza Rice, manifestou semana passada, por
   telefone, ao presidente George W. C. Bush, sua preocupac,ao com situac,ao
   politica e do avanc,o do terror no Brasil.

   Jornais norte-americanos ja colocam o Brasil em sexto lugar na
   preocupac,ao com redes de terrorismo. Os EUA temem que celulas terroristas
   que atuam junto com a organizac,ao criminosa Primeiro Comando da Capital
   tenham ligac,oes com grupos muc,ulmanos e da Europa, como o IRA (Exercito
   Republicano Irlandes) e o ETA (grupo separatista basco). Os guerrilheiros
   daqui do Brasil estariam recebendo ordens vindas da Colombia e da
   Venezuela. As armas viriam do Paraguai, onde foi recentemente desbaratada
   uma *celula de fornecedores*. O armamento entraria pelos estados do Parana
   e Mato Grosso.

   Uma prova da ac,ao organizada dos terroristas, nos moldes europeus ou do
   Oriente Medio, foi o sequ:estro do reporter da Rede Globo em Sao Paulo,
   Gulherme Portanova. Ele foi libertado aos 30 minutos desta segunda-feira,
   no bairro do Morumbi, na Zona Sul de Sao Paulo. Ficou em poder dos
   bandidos deste `as 8 horas da manha de sabado, quando foi dominado junto
   com o auxiliar tecnico Alexandre Calado, que foi solto antes para cumprir
   uma missao dos bandidos.

   A libertac,ao do jornalista dependeria da divulgac,ao de um video, de 3
   minutos e 5 segundos de durac,ao, por suposta ordem do PCC. A Globo
   obedeceu seguindo os conselhos de sua consultoria de seguranc,a, que e
   ligada ao servic,o secreto ingles. No DVD, exibido pela TV Globo de Sao
   Paulo, `a 0h 28min de domingo, um criminoso faz criticas ao sistema
   penitenciario brasileiro. O marginal, supostamente ligado ao PCC, defende
   um mutirao para revisao de penas, melhores condic,oes carcerarias, e
   contra o RDD (Regime Diferencial Disciplinado).

   O PCC paulista ja e considerado uma celula terrorista mais forte que o
   Hezbollah que e combatido por Israel, no Libano. O relatorio da ONG ligada
   `a CIA e `a Direc,ao Nacional de Inteligencia dos EUA ressalta que o
   presidente Bush esta preocupado com Cuba, com a Venezuela e agora com o
   Brasil. Nao sera surpresa se, ao longo desta semana, o presidente Lula da
   Silva receber uma ligac,ao da Casa Branca, advertindo sobre o problema, e
   cobrando uma soluc,ao energica contra a organizac,ao dos terroristas,
   sobretudo na triplice fronteira entre o Brasil, a Argentina e o Paraguai.

   Ataque ao governo petista

   O relatorio da *aguia* deixa claro aos senadores e ao proprio governo
   brasileiro que as recentes mega-operac,oes da Policia Federal, com prisoes
   de desembargadores, politicos e ate de militares, causou estarrecimento ao
   servic,o de inteligencia norte-americano.

   A entidade considera evidentes os indicios de explorac,ao politica nas
   operac,oes da PF, *em func,ao da situac,ao de um governo que esta
   enlameado na corrupc,ao e que nos ultimos momentos comec,a uma cac,a `as
   bruxas, jogando com relatorios sobre denuncias de corrupc,ao que ha anos
   ja se sabia*.

   O relatorio aponta que a situac,ao e muito mais grave do que a indicada
   pelo Secretario de Seguranc,a de Sao Paulo, Saulo Abreu de Castro, que foi
   ameac,ado de processo por sugerir que haveria ligac,oes entre o Partido
   dos Trabalhadores e o Primeiro Comando da Capital * fato que foi repudiado
   pelo presidente Lula da Silva e por seu partido.\"

   Do you know or may write something about this?
   I don't translate this in order to show you as I received.
   If you can send me an answer without breaking your national security or
   protocols, we appreciate.

   Sicerely,

   Major Cajueiro

   OtherComment: Military and Law Enforcement Inquiry

   ----------------------------------------------------------------------
   IP Address: 200.222.27.249

   TimeStamp: Wed, 16 Aug 2006 17:37:02 -0500

   UserAgent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.1; pt-BR; rv:1.8.0.6)
   Gecko/20060728 Firefox/1.5.0.6
","2006-08-17 00:37:02",1,"2012-08-02 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/448795_web-alert-stratfor-corp-site-.html","noreply@stratfor.com","","service@stratfor.com",""
492003,"The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography
","    Stratfor logo                                                             
   The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography     
                                                                              
    July 14, 2011 | 1216 GMT                                                  
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
    STRATFOR                                                                  
                                                                              
    Editor*s Note: This is the 15th in a series of STRATFOR monographs on     
    the geopolitics of countries influential in world affairs.                
                                                                              
    RELATED SPECIAL TOPIC PAGE                                                
      * Geopolitical Monographs: In-depth Country Analysis                    
                                                                              
    South America is a geographically challenging land mass. The bulk of its  
    territory is located in the equatorial zone, making nearly all of the     
    northern two-thirds of its territory tropical. Jungle territory is the    
    most difficult sort of biome to adapt for human economic activity.        
    Clearing the land alone carries onerous costs. Soils are poor. Diseases   
    run rampant. The climate is often too humid to allow grains to ripen.     
    Even where rivers are navigable, often their banks are too muddy for      
    construction, as with the Amazon.                                         
                                                                              
    As the tropics dominate South America, the continent*s economic and       
    political history has been problematic. Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname and   
    French Guiana are fully within the tropical zone, and as such always      
    have faced difficulties in achieving economic and political stability,    
    though the discovery of [IMG] oil in Venezuela improved that country*s    
    economic trajectory. Throughout the tropical zones nearly all of the      
    population lives within a few dozen kilometers of the coast. For the      
    most part, however, those coasts are not naturally sculpted to encourage  
    interaction with the outside world. Natural ports * deepwater or          
    otherwise * are few and far between.                                      
                                                                              
    There are, however, two geographic features on the continent that break   
    this tropical monotony.                                                   
                                                                              
    The first is the Andean mountain chain. The Andes run along the           
    continent*s western edge, giving rise to a handful of littoral and        
    transmountain cultures physically separated from the continent*s eastern  
    bulk and thus largely left to develop according to their own devices.     
    Colombia and Ecuador straddle the tropics and the Andes, with their       
    economic cores not being coastal, but instead elevated in the somewhat    
    cooler and dryer Andean valleys, which mitigates the difficulties of the  
    tropics somewhat. Farther south are the arid transmountain states of      
    Peru and Bolivia. Peru has achieved some degree of wealth by largely      
    ignoring its own interior except when seeking resource extraction         
    opportunities, instead concentrating its scant capital on the de facto    
    city-state of Lima. In contrast, landlocked Bolivia is trapped in a       
    perennial struggle between the poor highlanders of the Altiplano and the  
    agriculturally rich region of the lowland Medialuna.                      
                                                                              
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
    The combination of mountains and jungle greatly limits the degree to      
    which states in this arc * from French Guiana in the northeast to         
    Bolivia in the southwest * can integrate with each other or the outside   
    world. In all cases, basic transport is extremely difficult; tropical     
    diseases are often a serious issue; there are few good ports;             
    agricultural development is both more labor and capital intensive         
    compared to more traditional food-producing regions; humidity and heat    
    hinder conventional grain production; and the ruggedness of the           
    mountains raises the costs of everything.                                 
                                                                              
    Historically, the only way these states have achieved progress toward     
    economic development is by accepting dependence on an external (and       
    usually extraregional) power willing to provide investment capital.       
    Without this, these states simply lack the capital generation capacity    
    to meet their unique and staggering infrastructure challenges.            
    Consequently, the broader region is severely underdeveloped, and the      
    residents of most of these states are generally quite poor. While some    
    may be able to achieve relative wealth under the right mix of             
    circumstances, none has the ability to be a significant regional * much   
    less global * power.                                                      
                                                                              
    The second exception to the tropical dominance of South America is the    
    temperate lands of the Southern Cone. Here, the summers are dry enough    
    to allow traditional grains to ripen, while cooler weather * especially   
    winter insect kills * limits the impact of disease outbreaks. Unlike the  
    scattered populations of the Andean region, the Southern Cone is one      
    large stretch of mostly flat, moderately watered territory. The bulk of   
    that land lies in Argentina, with significantly smaller pieces in         
    Uruguay, Paraguay and Brazil. The only remaining country on the           
    continent is where the temperate Southern Cone overlaps with the Andean   
    mountain zone: Chile, one of the world*s most physically isolated         
    states. It takes longer to fly from Santiago to Lima than it does to fly  
    from London to Moscow, and longer to sail from Santiago to Buenos Aires   
    than it does from New York City to London. Chile consequently does not    
    participate significantly in the politics of the Southern Cone.           
                                                                              
    In stark contrast to the mountains and jungle that dominate the majority  
    of South America, the Southern Cone flatlands are the best land on the    
    continent. Their flatness, combined with their natural prairies, lowers   
    the cost of construction, and the temperate climate makes them rich       
    agricultural zones. But the real advantage lies in the region*s river     
    structure. The Parana, Uruguay and Paraguay rivers combined with the Rio  
    de la Plata * a massive estuary that empties into the Atlantic between    
    contemporary Buenos Aires and Montevideo * are all navigable for a great  
    portion of their length.                                                  
                                                                              
    Moving goods via water costs about 10 to 30 times less than moving the    
    same goods by truck. Such riverine transport systems therefore generate   
    massive amounts of capital with little difficulty compared to             
    land-transport systems. Collectively, this river network overlaying the   
    agricultural flatlands is known as the Rio de la Plata region.            
                                                                              
    These rivers are particularly valuable for agricultural regions such as   
    the Rio de la Plata. Wheat, corn, soybeans and the like suffer from a     
    weak value-to-bulk ratio * oftentimes transporting them great distances   
    can only be done at an economic loss. Water transport allows for          
    foodstuffs to cheaply and easily be brought not just downstream but to    
    the ocean and then the wider world. Russia presents a strong contrast to  
    the Rio de la Plata region. Its famines often directly result from the    
    inability to bring foodstuffs to the cities efficiently because its       
    navigable rivers are not well situated * meaning foodstuffs must be       
    transported by truck or train.                                            
                                                                              
    The most important geographic fact on the continent is that the Rio de    
    la Plata region*s rivers are navigable both independently and             
    collectively via a system of canals and locks. Only the Greater           
    Mississippi River network of North America has more kilometers of         
    interconnected maritime transport options. This interconnectivity allows  
    greater economies of scale, greater volumes of capital generation and     
    larger populations, and it greatly enhances the establishment of a        
    single political authority. In contrast, the separate rivers of the       
    North European Plain have given rise to multiple, often mutually          
    hostile, nationalities. Argentina controls the mouth of the Rio de la     
    Plata and the bulk of the navigable stretches of river. This leaves the   
    Uruguayans, Paraguayans and Brazilians at a disadvantage within the       
    region. (Brazilian power is greater overall than Argentine power, but     
    not in the critical capital-generating geography of the Rio de la Plata   
    region.)                                                                  
                                                                              
     The Brazilian Geography                                                  
                                                                              
    Most of Brazil*s territory does not lie within these Southern Cone        
    lands. Instead, roughly one-third of Brazil*s 8.5 million square          
    kilometers is composed of vast tracts of challenging jungle, with the     
    Amazon Basin being the most intractable of all. While there are many      
    potential opportunities to exploit minerals, they come with daunting      
    infrastructure costs.                                                     
                                                                              
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
    South of the Amazon Basin lies a unique region known as the cerrado, a    
    vast tropical savannah with extremely acidic soils. However, because the  
    heat and humidity is far less intense than in the jungle, the cerrado     
    can be made economically viable by brute force. The cost, however, is     
    extreme. In addition to the massive infrastructure challenges * the       
    cerrado lacks any navigable rivers * the land must in essence be          
    terraformed for use: cleared, leveled and fertilized on an industrial     
    scale to make it amenable to traditional crops. There is also the issue   
    of distance. The cerrado is an inland region, so shipping any supplies    
    to or produce from the region comes at a hefty transport cost. Brazil     
    has spent the greater part of the past three generations engaged in       
    precisely this sort of grand effort.                                      
                                                                              
    Luckily for the Brazilians, not all of Brazil*s lands are so difficult.   
    About 600,000 square kilometers of Brazil is considered traditionally     
    arable. While this represents only 7 percent of the country*s total land  
    area, that still constitutes a piece of arable territory roughly the      
    size of Texas or France. All of that land lies in the country*s southern  
    reaches. But much of that territory lies in the interior, where it is     
    not easily accessible. Brazil*s true core territories are less than one   
    quarter of this 7 percent, about the size of Tunisia or Montana,          
    straddling the area where the tropical zone gives way to the temperate    
    lands of the Southern Cone. These areas formed the core of Brazil*s       
    original settlements in the early colonial period, and these lands        
    formed the population core of Brazil for the first three centuries of     
    its existence. As such, the topography of these lands has had an almost   
    deterministic impact on Brazil*s development. Understanding that          
    topography and its legacy is central to understanding what is empowering  
    Brazil to evolve * and hampering Brazil from evolving * into a major      
    power in the years to come.                                               
                                                                              
    Two obvious characteristics stand out regarding this core Brazilian       
    region. First, it is semi-tropical, so development in the region faces a  
    somewhat less intense version of the challenges described above for       
    fully tropical zones. Second, and more critical, the Brazilian interior   
    is a raised plateau * called the Brazilian Shield * which directly abuts  
    Brazil*s Atlantic coast along nearly the entirety of the country*s        
    southeastern perimeter. The drop from the shield to the Atlantic is       
    quite steep, with most of the coast appearing as a wall when viewed from  
    the ocean * the source of the dramatic backdrops of most Brazilian        
    coastal cities. This wall is called the [IMG] Grand Escarpment, and most  
    Brazilian cities in this core region * Rio de Janeiro, Vitoria, Santos    
    and Porto Alegre * are located on small, isolated pockets of relatively   
    flat land where the escarpment falls to the sea.                          
                                                                              
    The primary problem this enclave topography presents is achieving         
    economies of scale. In normal development patterns, cities form around    
    some sort of core economic asset, typically a river*s head of navigation  
    (the maximum inland point that a sizable cargo vessel can reach) or a     
    port or nexus of other transport options. The city then spreads out,      
    typically growing along the transport corridors, reflecting that access   
    to those transport corridors provides greater economic opportunities and  
    lower economic costs. So long as somewhat flat land remains available,    
    the city can continue growing at low cost. In time, nearby cities often   
    start merging into each other, allowing them to share labor, capital,     
    infrastructure and services. Economies of scale proliferate and such      
    megacities begin generating massive amounts of capital and skilled labor  
    from the synergies.                                                       
                                                                              
    Megacities * such as New York City, Los Angeles, London, Paris, Tokyo,    
    Buenos Aires, Istanbul and Shanghai * form the core of the global         
    economic system. This *standard* development pattern has been repeated    
    the world over. The premier American example is the *megalopolis* region  
    of cities on the American Eastern Seaboard stretching from Washington to  
    Boston, encompassing such major locations as Baltimore, Philadelphia,     
    New York, Hartford and Providence. In Europe, a similar conglomeration    
    contains the many cities of the German Rhine Valley. In both cases,       
    major and minor cities alike merge into an urban/suburban conglomeration  
    where the resources of each location are shared with and bolstered by     
    the others. In all such cases, the common characteristic is the           
    existence of land upon which to expand.                                   
                                                                              
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
    That land is precisely what Brazil*s core territory lacks. The Grand      
    Escarpment comes right down to the ocean throughout the Brazilian         
    southern coast. Brazil*s cities, therefore, are forced to develop on      
    small enclaves of relatively flat land in the few areas where the         
    escarpment has not pushed all the way to the sea. The lack of a coastal   
    plain means no small cities can form between the major cities. Any        
    infrastructure built by one city never serves another city, and linking   
    the cities requires climbing up the escarpment onto the shield itself,    
    traversing the shield and then going back down the escarpment to the      
    other cities, a difficult and costly endeavor in terms of both time and   
    engineering. Because Brazil does not have direct access to the navigable  
    rivers of the Rio de la Plata region, it has to scrounge for capital to   
    apply to this capital-intensive project. Absolute limitations on land     
    area also drive up the cost of that land, injecting strong inflation      
    into the mix right at the beginning and raising development costs.        
    Enclavic geography is not something that can be *grown out of* or         
    *developed around.* The topography is constant, and these cities simply   
    cannot synergize each other * a modern, low capital-cost city cannot be   
    built on the side of a cliff. Moreover, since these enclaves are          
    Brazil*s primary points of interaction with the outside world, they       
    represent a constant, permanent restriction on Brazil*s ability to grow.  
                                                                              
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
    To this day, Brazil has very few major highways and railways because      
    even where the topography does allow for the possibility, the costs       
    still are much higher than in flatter lands farther south. The country    
    lacks a major coastal road system, as the escarpment is simply too steep  
    and too close to the coast. Following the Brazilian coastline makes       
    clear how Brazil*s coastal roads are almost exclusively two-lane, and     
    the coastal cities * while dramatic * are tiny and crammed into whatever  
    pockets of land they can find. And most of the country is still without   
    a rail network; much of that soy, corn and rice that the country has      
    become famous for exporting reaches the country*s ports by truck, the     
    most expensive way to transport bulk goods.                               
                                                                              
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
    STRATFOR photo                                                            
    The Grand Escarpment drops almost directly down to the coast in most      
    portions of southern Brazil. This photograph vividly illustrates how the  
    Grand Escarpment starkly limits Rio de Janeiro*s development. Brazil*s    
    southern coastal cities have developed along similar patterns, lacking    
    the traditional hinterlands of major cities elsewhere in the world.       
                                                                              
    The one exception to the rule is Sao Paulo state, centered on the city    
    of the same name. Only Sao Paulo has sufficient flat lands to follow a    
    more standard development pattern and thus achieve any economies of       
    scale. It is also the only portion of Brazil that possesses anything      
    resembling the modern, integrated infrastructure that follows more        
    traditional development patterns. Unsurprisingly, this single state       
    accounts for more than one-third of Brazil*s gross domestic product       
    (GDP) despite only serving as home to one-fifth of the country*s          
    population. As recently as 1950, Sao Paulo state produced more than       
    one-half Brazil*s economic output.                                        
                                                                              
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
    Unfortunately, Sao Paulo is not a coastal city. The escarpment at Sao     
    Paulo is too steep and the coastal enclave * the port of Santos * is too  
    small to take full advantage of Sao Paulo*s potential. Sao Paulo sits at  
    an elevation of about 800 meters atop the Brazilian Shield, some 70       
    kilometers inland. (In comparison, the U.S. city at the Mississippi       
    River*s head of navigation, Minneapolis, Minn., sits at less than 200     
    meters elevation despite being 3,000 kilometers inland.) This sharp       
    elevation change helps mitigate the climatic impact of the region*s       
    near-tropical conditions that predominate on the coast, but comes at the  
    dauntingly high capital and engineering costs required to link the city   
    and state to the coast. So while Sao Paulo is indeed a major economic     
    center, it is not one deeply hardwired into Brazil*s coastal cities or    
    to the world at large.                                                    
                                                                              
    The lack of economies of scale and the difficulty of integrating local    
    infrastructure forces bottlenecks. The worst of those bottlenecks occur   
    where the coastal enclaves interact with the outside world * in Brazil*s  
    ports * and it is here that Brazil faces the biggest limiting factor in   
    achieving economic breakout. Brazil is correctly thought of as a major    
    exporter of any number of raw commodities, but the hostility of its       
    geography to shipping and the inability of its cities to integrate have   
    curtailed port development drastically. The top seven Brazilian ports     
    combined have less loading capacity than the top U.S. port, New Orleans,  
    and all Brazilian ports combined have considerably less loading capacity  
    than the top two U.S. ports, New Orleans and Houston.                     
                                                                              
    Building a more sustainable Brazil cannot be done on the coast; there     
    simply is not enough land there to feed a growing nation. But climbing    
    up the Grand Escarpment to develop the interior introduces a new          
    problem.                                                                  
                                                                              
    The coastal ridge at the top of the Grand Escarpment also divides         
    drainage basins. Within a few dozen kilometers of the southeastern        
    coast, South American rivers flow west, not east, ultimately emptying     
    into the Rio de la Plata network. As the early Brazilian cities           
    attempted to develop interior hinterlands, those hinterlands found        
    themselves more economically intertwined with Argentine and Paraguayan    
    lands to the south than with their parent communities to the east. For    
    many in the interior it was cheaper, easier and faster to float products  
    down the rivers to the megaport of Buenos Aires than to lug them by land  
    up and over the Brazilian coastal mountain ranges and down the Grand      
    Escarpment to the middling disconnected ports of coastal Brazil.          
    Similarly, it was far easier to sail down the Atlantic coast and up the   
    Rio de la Plata Basin onto the Parana than expend the cost of building    
    on-land infrastructure. Brazil*s early efforts to develop integration     
    within its own territories paradoxically led to an economic dependence    
    upon its southern neighbors that weakened intra-Brazilian relationships.  
                                                                              
    Those southern neighbors took advantage of this situation, leaving        
    Brazil struggling to control its own land. Unlike the U.S. independence   
    experience, in which all of the colonies were part of the same            
    administration and battled as one against their colonial overlord, South  
    America was a patchwork of different entities, all of which fought for    
    their independence in the same 15-year period. Paraguay achieved          
    independence in 1811, Argentina in 1818 and Brazil in 1823. Immediately   
    upon independence, the region*s new states struggled for control of the   
    waterways that held the key to being the dominant, integrated economic    
    power of the Southern Cone. Since Brazil was the last of the region*s     
    states to break away from its former colonial master, it had the least    
    time to consolidate in preparation for post-independence wars, and its    
    enclave nature made such consolidation far more challenging than that of  
    other Southern Cone states. Brazil accordingly did very badly in the      
    ensuing conflicts.                                                        
                                                                              
    Those early wars resulted in Uruguay*s separation from Brazil and the     
    removal of Brazilian authority to above the heads-of-navigation on all    
    of the Rio de la Plata region*s rivers. All of the rivers* navigable      
    lengths were now shared between Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay, leaving  
    capital-poor Brazil sequestered in its highland semi-tropical             
    territories. Argentina and Paraguay rose rapidly in economic and          
    military might, while Brazil languished with little more than plantation  
    agriculture for more than a century.                                      
                                                                              
    The next two generations of regional competition focused on Argentina     
    and Paraguay, which struggled for control of the Rio de la Plata          
    maritime system. That competition came to a head in the 1864-1870 War of  
    the Triple Alliance in which Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay eventually     
    won after a brutal struggle with Paraguay. Fully 90 percent of the male   
    Paraguayan population died in the conflict, nearly destroying Paraguay    
    as a country; its demography did not finally rebalance until the 1990s.   
    With Brazil*s wings clipped and its more serious regional rival all but   
    destroyed, Argentina fashioned Paraguay and Uruguay into economic         
    satellites, leveraging the region*s river systems to become a global      
    economic power. By 1929 it had the world*s fourth-highest per capita      
    GDP. Brazil, in contrast, remained impoverished and relatively isolated   
    for decades.                                                              
                                                                              
    Nor was Brazil united. Between the economic pull of Argentina and its     
    rivers and the disconnected nature of the enclavic coast, regionalism     
    became a major feature of Brazilian politics. Contact between the         
    various pieces of Brazil was difficult, while contact with the outside    
    world was relatively easy, making integration of all kinds * political,   
    economic, and cultural * often elusive.                                   
                                                                              
    Regionalism remains a major issue in Brazilian politics, with strong      
    rivalries triggering divisions among states and between states and the    
    federal government. The preponderance of power at the beginning of the    
    20th century lay in the hands of the wealthier states, Minas Gerais and   
    Sao Paulo. For many years, control of the central government alternated   
    between the two states. This left Brazil*s remaining states isolated      
    politically, prodding them to seek economic opportunities globally while  
    defining their identities locally. For the better part of a century,      
    *Brazil* was less a national concept as much as it was a geographic       
    concept. Rio de Janeiro and Rio Grande do Sul states, for example, in     
    many ways started acting like independent countries. This state of        
    affairs lasted until very recently.                                       
                                                                              
     Brazil*s Inflation Trap                                                  
                                                                              
    Brazil*s biggest problem * which began with the colonial settlement       
    process and continues to the current day * is that it is simply not       
    capable of growth that is both sustained and stable. Economic growth      
    anywhere in the world is inflationary: Demand for arable land, labor,     
    transport, capital and resources pushes the prices of all of these        
    inputs up. Growth in most places can continue until those inflationary    
    pressures build and eventually overtake any potential benefit of that     
    growth. At that point, growth collapses due to higher costs and a         
    recession sets in. Brazil*s burden to bear is that land, labor,           
    transport infrastructure and capital exist in such extreme scarcity in    
    Brazil that any economic growth almost instantly turns inflationary.      
    Arable land, transport infrastructure and capital have already been       
    discussed, but labor requires a more thorough examination, particularly   
    given contemporary Brazil*s population of 194 million.                    
                                                                              
    The labor issue is rooted in Brazil*s oligarchic economic system,         
    something that also has a geographic origin. Brazil suffers from low      
    capital generation and high capital costs * the opposite of most of the   
    world*s economic power centers. In those power centers, the relative      
    omnipresence of capital allows a democratization of economic power.       
                                                                              
    In the American experience, anyone could easily venture out of the        
    cities into the lands of the Greater Mississippi Basin and, within a      
    year or two, be exporting agricultural produce to both American and       
    European cities. In Brazil, by contrast, massive amounts of capital were  
    needed simply to build roads up the Grand Escarpment. The prospect of a   
    common citizen establishing an independent economic existence in that     
    sort of environment was unrealistic, as the only people who had the       
    capacity to *build* Brazil were those who entered the country with their  
    own pre-existing fortunes. So while the early American experience * and   
    the industrialization that followed * was defined by immigrants from      
    Europe*s rural poor seeking land, Brazil was started on its path by rich  
    Portuguese settlers who brought a portion of their fortunes with them.    
                                                                              
    The American culture of small businesses long predates independence,      
    whereas its Brazilian equivalent did not take root until the immigration  
    waves of the late 19th century. As could be expected in a location where  
    capital was rare but the needs for capital were high, these oligarchs     
    saw no reason to share what infrastructure they built with anyone * not   
    even with each other.                                                     
                                                                              
    Complicating matters was that early Brazil did not have full access to    
    that France-sized piece of arable land * most of it lay in the interior   
    on the wrong side of the Grand Escarpment. The tropical climate           
    drastically limited agricultural options. Until the mid-20th century,     
    the only crops that could be grown en masse were plantation crops, first  
    and most famously sugar, but in time coffee, citrus, bananas and          
    tobacco. But unlike more traditional cereal crops that only require a     
    few weeks of attention per year, such tropical crops are far more labor   
    intensive in their planting, tending, harvesting and transport. Tobacco   
    had to be cut and dried; sugar had to be cut, cooked and refined.         
    Whereas a grain field can be quickly harvested and dumped into a truck,   
    harvesting and transporting bananas, for example, takes much longer.      
                                                                              
    These characteristics impacted Brazil in two critical ways.               
                                                                              
    First, the capital required for these plantations was so great that       
    smallholders of the American model were largely shut out. No              
    smallholders meant no small towns that could form kernels of education    
    and industrialization. Instead, plantations meant company towns where     
    economic oligarchies gave birth to political oligarchies. In time, the    
    political and economic power imbalance would provide the foundation for   
    the Brazilian military governments of the 20th century. Even in modern    
    times, Brazil*s geography continues to favor oligarchic plantation        
    farming to family farming. At present, 85 percent of farms in the United  
    States * a country with a reputation for factory farming * are 500 acres  
    or fewer, whereas 70 percent of Brazilian farms are 500 acres or more.    
                                                                              
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
                                                                              
    Time has not moderated this trend, but rather deepened it. In the latter  
    half of the 20th century, Brazil launched a massive agricultural          
    diversification effort that included the clearing of vast swaths of land  
    in the interior, some of it in the cerrado and some as far inland as the  
    Bolivian border. Among other agricultural products, some of these new     
    lands were appropriate for corn and soybeans, crops normally quite        
    amenable to farmers of a more modest capital base. But the cerrado        
    requires massive inputs before agriculture can be attempted, and the      
    interior lands are often in excess of 1,000 kilometers from Brazil*s      
    perennially overworked ports. The twin development and infrastructure     
    costs wound up reinforcing the oligarchic nature of the Brazilian         
    agricultural system to the point that the average *new* Brazilian farm    
    is six times the size of the farms of *old* Brazil.                       
                                                                              
    Second, plantation agriculture calls for unskilled labor, a pattern that  
    continues into the modern day. Unlike the more advanced New World         
    colonies * which enjoyed access to easier transport and thus more         
    capital, yielding the kernels of urbanization, an educational system and  
    labor differentiation * Brazil relied on slave labor. It was the last     
    country in the Western Hemisphere to outlaw slavery, a step it took in    
    1888.                                                                     
                                                                              
    A lack of skilled labor means, among other things, a smaller middle       
    class and lower internal consumption than other states at a similar       
    level of development. Consequently, Brazil has a small number of landed   
    elite and a large majority of poor. As of 2011, fully one in four         
    Brazilians eke out a living in Brazil*s infamous slums, the favelas.      
    According to the Gini coefficient, a sociological measure of income       
    inequality, Brazil has been the most unequal of the world*s major states  
    for decades.                                                              
                                                                              
    Taken together, Brazil faces inflationary barriers at every stage of the  
    growth cycle. Starting a business requires capital, which is in short     
    supply and held by a privileged class. Shipping goods requires scarce     
    infrastructure, which is insufficient to needs, expensive and often       
    owned by a privileged class. Any increase in demand for either of these   
    inputs puts upward pressure on the associated costs. Expanding a          
    business requires skilled labor, but there is not a deep skilled labor    
    pool, so any hiring quickly results in wage spirals. And holding          
    everything back is the still-disconnected nature of the Brazilian         
    cities, so there are few economies of scale. More than anywhere else in   
    the world, growth triggers inflation * which kills growth.                
                                                                              
    Consequently, Brazil has been characterized by below-average growth and   
    above-average inflation for centuries and thus has traditionally been     
    underindustrialized compared to most other developing states. Even        
    before the oligarchs* interests are factored in, any infrastructure       
    projects that make sense will be linked to projects with good foreign     
    cash-generating potential, which quickly narrows the list of likely       
    projects to agriculture and mining (all commodities are U.S.-dollar       
    denominated).                                                             
                                                                              
    As such, Brazil has had little choice but to focus on the production or   
    extraction of primary commodities such as sugar and iron ore. Such        
    capital-intensive industries not only reinforce the oligarchic system     
    but also skew the economy*s output. As of 2010, fully 70 percent of       
    Brazil*s exports are dollar-denominated, with 45 percent of exports by    
    value consisting of raw commodities. This may help Brazil*s               
    (dollar-denominated) bottom line, but it does nothing to address its      
    chronic infrastructure, labor, inequality or inflationary restraints.     
                                                                              
    It is thus unsurprising that Brazil has not yet emerged as a major        
    global power. It cannot economically expand without killing itself with   
    inflation. Its skilled labor pool and capital markets are woefully        
    insufficient for its needs, and the oligarchs have a vested interest in   
    keeping things that way. Even efforts to expand out of the country*s      
    various traps have in many ways only entrenched the system. Moreover,     
    what growth Brazil has enjoyed in recent years has been because of the    
    combination of a broad rise in commodity prices and heavy foreign         
    investment into Brazilian infrastructure to get at those commodities,     
    not because of anything Brazil has done.                                  
                                                                              
    This hardly means that Brazil is either a failed state or that its past   
    is condemned to be its future. What this does mean is that if Brazil is   
    to rise as a major power something has to change. And two things have     
    changed, in fact: Argentina, and the way Brazilians view their country.   
                                                                              
     Modern Argentina*s Decline                                               
                                                                              
    Argentina has everything necessary to become a major global power. Its    
    lands are flat and temperate, its rivers are navigable and                
    interconnected, and it enjoys the buffer of distance from major           
    competitors and ample resources to fuel a rise to greatness. Indeed,      
    throughout its first century of independence, Argentina moved from        
    victory to victory * first over Brazil, then Paraguay, and then into the  
    ranks of the world*s richest states. Standing in Argentina*s shadow, it   
    is no surprise that Brazilians developed the tendency to be humble and    
    passive, unwilling to challenge their rich and dynamic southern           
    neighbor.                                                                 
                                                                              
    In the aftermath of the War of the Triple Alliance, Argentina enjoyed a   
    historic boom. European immigrants arrived en masse, and the              
    opportunities of the Rio de la Plata allowed for the creation and         
    metabolization of massive amounts of capital. Alone among the Latin       
    American states, Argentina generated a substantial middle class. But      
    Argentina had two weaknesses, and from roughly 1930 on, Argentina*s       
    trajectory has been downward.                                             
                                                                              
    First, unlike in Anglo America, land in Argentina was not widely          
    distributed to individual landholders. Like elsewhere in Latin America,   
    Argentina began with an oligarchic landholder system that left most of    
    the population economically dependent on a small, wealthy elite. A        
    successful backlash to this autocratic structure came in the form of      
    labor unrest that propelled the populist Peron regime to power.           
                                                                              
    The legacy of Peronism is the enhancement of autocratic power by          
    political mobilization of the lower and middle classes. This power has    
    remained consolidated under the control of a strongman * or in the case   
    of the contemporary government, a strongwoman * whose influence over the  
    institutions of the state is near total. Other institutions are much      
    weaker than the presidency, and as a result, policymaking in Argentina    
    is highly dependent on the individual in power at any given time.         
    Populist demands have overpowered more conventional policies for decades  
    on end, resulting in Argentina*s slow and irregular decline for nearly a  
    century.                                                                  
                                                                              
    Second, the vast distance of Argentina from the rest of the world         
    greatly shaped Argentine perceptions. Tucked away at the bottom of the    
    Atlantic, Argentina is one of the world*s most sequestered states. Once   
    Brazil and Paraguay had been contained as local threats, the next         
    closest threat to Argentina was the United Kingdom, some 12,000           
    kilometers away. As in the United States, such large distances allowed a  
    large degree of cultural insulation and national savings. (There was no   
    need to maintain a large standing military.)                              
                                                                              
    But there is a critical difference between the two experiences. The       
    Americans were some 7,000 kilometers closer to potential rivals and thus  
    on occasion were reminded that they are not, in fact, alone. Events such  
    as the 1814 burning of Washington, the European willingness to ignore     
    the Union blockade during the Civil War, the 1941 bombing of Pearl        
    Harbor and, most recently, 9/11 unsurprisingly have had a major impact    
    on the American psyche. Each shocked the Americans out of complacency     
    and spurred them to overreact to the sudden *surprise* that the rest of   
    the world exists. In those subsequent spasms of activity, the Americans   
    remake themselves. This process entails a great deal of disruption in     
    the United States and abroad, but it keeps the Americans adaptable.       
                                                                              
    Argentina*s greater distance from world affairs means that they have      
    suffered no such revivals following intrusions into their geographic      
    utopia. The War of the Triple Alliance is now 140 years past. The war     
    over the Falklands Islands, known to Argentines as the Malvinas, was the  
    one notable instance in which Argentina sought interaction with the       
    outside world. Buenos Aires initiated conflict with a far superior        
    military power * the United Kingdom * and the resulting political and     
    military defeat crushed the standing of the Argentine military, heavily   
    contributing to the decline and fall of the military government.          
    Although the Falklands War had a huge political impact, it did not pose   
    the kind of challenge to Argentine core elements of prosperity that       
    would require a concerted effort at reform and self-renewal. As a         
    result, Argentina has neglected to address national problems that have    
    crept up on it over the decades.                                          
                                                                              
    Recent developments underline this tendency. An economic crisis in        
    2001-2002 placed a new populist government in power that defaulted on     
    the country*s debt, which freed Buenos Aires of the need to make          
    interest payments. Rather than seize the opportunity to rebalance the     
    Argentine economic and political system onto a sounder footing that       
    leveraged the country*s geographic blessings, the state instead spent     
    the savings on mass subsidies to bolster its populist credentials. High   
    growth resulted, but the policies were only paid for by hollowing out     
    the country*s capital stock and distorting the economy to the point       
    where fundamental industries * from cattle farming to wheat               
    growing to energy production * have now begun to fail. High taxes         
    combined with high consumption encouraged by large subsidies and price    
    controls have crippled business owners and agriculturalists alike. The    
    subsidies have proven particularly problematic, as they have locked the   
    government into ever-increasing expenditures expressly linked to the      
    populist patronage the people demand as their right. Consequently,        
    Buenos Aires only wields limited influence in South America and little    
    to none beyond the continent.                                             
                                                                              
    With all that said, Argentina is still the power in South America with    
    the clearest, most likely growth path. It still holds the Rio de la       
    Plata*s river network and it still holds the Pampas, the best farmland    
    in the Southern Hemisphere. What it cannot seem to figure out is how to   
    make use of its favorable position. So long as that remains the case *    
    so long as the natural dominant power of the Southern Cone remains in     
    decline * other powers have at least a chance to emerge. Which brings us  
    back to Brazil.                                                           
                                                                              
     Modern Brazil*s Success                                                  
                                                                              
    Brazil*s challenges are legion, but at core they are as simple as these   
    two issues: Brazil*s geography works against it, and its economy is       
    trapped by inflation. The Brazilians have spent decades struggling        
    against these two facts, and in the past generation they have finally     
    achieved significant progress.                                            
                                                                              
       Brazil*s Struggle With Geography                                       
                                                                              
    As discussed, Brazil*s core coastal territories present the country with  
    a variety of difficulties that no amount of local development can         
    overcome. Yet Brazil does sport a broad swath of arable land in its       
    interior which is flatter, more temperate and largely unified             
    topographically * the trick is uniting the coastal territories on the     
    east side of the Grand Escarpment with the interior in a way that does    
    not undermine the authority of the state. From the 1870s until the 1980s  
    Brazilian development strategy therefore was relatively straightforward:  
    expand the country*s infrastructure, kilometer by painstaking kilometer,  
    into those interior arable zones. The sheer size of the territories that  
    could be put under plow partially overcame the inflationary and           
    transport bottlenecks that limited Brazil*s core coastal regions.         
                                                                              
    While early expansion certainly weakened central authority by             
    encouraging economic links to Argentina, as that expansion built upon     
    itself and developed economies of scale, interior Brazil became a         
    formidable economic engine in and of itself. And while Brazil*s gaze      
    still lingered on the attractiveness of the Rio de la Plata*s transport   
    network, Brazil was sizable enough to have independent economic heft.     
    Under those circumstances, association with coastal Brazil was an         
    economic complication rather than an economic catastrophe.                
                                                                              
    By the 1970s several interlocking factors started solidifying the many    
    interior success stories:                                                 
                                                                              
      * Argentina*s deepening malaise lessened the attractiveness of the Rio  
        de la Plata*s rivers.                                                 
      * Brazil finally cleared enough interior lands so that more easily      
        shippable conventional cereals were starting to be produced in large  
        quantities, producing a more positive value-bulk ratio in the         
        transport of Brazilian agricultural produce that somewhat eased its   
        transport problem.                                                    
      * Brazil*s interior expansion took it right up to the borders of        
        Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay, and after some tentative moments,      
        Brazilian infrastructure and capital started moving across the        
        borders and integrating the agricultural lands of the border states   
        into the broader Brazilian economy. Argentina did little to resist.   
        Bit by bit Argentina lost influence in the three states and by 2011   
        all three have become de facto Brazilian economic satellites.         
      * Foreign investors saw sufficient potential in the Brazilian interior  
        that they were willing to invest increasing sums of their own         
        capital in underwriting both the country*s interior development       
        projects and its efforts to assimilate the three border states.       
                                                                              
    Surprisingly, the clear-cutting of the interior provided the basis of     
    Brazilian political liberalization. One of the many downsides of an       
    oligarchic economic system is that politics tend to become as             
    concentrated as wealth. Yet in clearing the land Brazil created           
    artificial trade ways * roads * that allowed some Brazilians to strike    
    out on their own (though they were not as efficient as rivers).           
    Currently there are some 2.6 million landholders with farms of between 5  
    and 100 acres (anything less is a subsistence farm, while anything more   
    verges into the category of high-capital factory farms). That is 2.6      
    million families who have a somewhat independent economic * and           
    political * existence. Elsewhere in the world, that is known as a middle  
    class. The environmental price was steep, but without this very new       
    class of landholder, Brazilian democracy would be on fairly shaky         
    ground.                                                                   
                                                                              
    The interior expansion effort solved none of the coastal bottleneck       
    issues, but the constellation of forces certainly conspired to ease       
    Brazil*s path. But perhaps the most important aspect of this interior     
    push was that Brazil ceased to be simply a geographic concept. The        
    rising importance of the interior * best symbolized by the relocation of  
    the political capital to the interior city of Brasilia in 1960 * diluted  
    the regional leanings of the coastal cities. The lands of the interior    
    saw themselves first and foremost as Brazilian, and as that identity      
    slowly gained credence, the government finally achieved sufficient        
    gravitas and respect to begin addressing the country*s other major        
    challenge.                                                                
                                                                              
       Inflation                                                              
                                                                              
    No economic strategy can allow Brazil to achieve the magic mix of         
    locally determined, strong growth with low inflation. At most, Brazil     
    can have two of the three. For most of the 20th century, Brazilian        
    governments tended to favor growth as a means of containing social        
    unrest and mustering resources for the government, even at the cost of    
    inflation. But since inflation tends disproportionately to harm the       
    poor, the already-wide income gap between the oligarchs and the rest of   
    the population only widened. Since 2006, strong global commodity prices   
    have allowed the Brazilian economy to grow fairly rapidly, but those      
    commodity prices are based on factors wholly beyond Brazil*s control. As  
    with every other commodity cycle, this one, too, will come to an end,     
    triggering all the economic dislocation with which Brazilians are all     
    too familiar.                                                             
                                                                              
    Unless of course, the government changes the game * which it has done.    
                                                                              
    The macroeconomic strategy of the current regime, along with that of a    
    string of governments going back to the early 1990s, is known             
    colloquially as the *real plan* (after Brazil*s currency, the real). In   
    essence, the strategy turned Brazil*s traditional strategy of growth at   
    any cost on its head, seeking instead low inflation at any cost.          
    Subsidies were eliminated wholesale across the economy, working from the  
    understanding that consumption triggered inflation. Credit * whether      
    government or private, domestic or foreign * was greatly restricted,      
    working from the assumption that the Brazilian system could not handle    
    the subsequent growth without stoking inflation. Government spending was  
    greatly reduced and deficit spending largely phased out on the            
    understanding that all forms of stimulus should be minimized to avoid     
    inflation.                                                                
                                                                              
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
    In practice, this led to a series of policies that most economists        
    interpreted as rather orthodox, consisting of extremely low government    
    debt; extremely restrained government activity; and extremely well        
    capitalized, heavily regulated and conservative banks. These strict       
    inflation control policies have achieved a high degree of economic        
    stability. Inflation plunged from more than 2,000 percent a year to the   
    single digits. But those gains came at a cost: Between 1980 and 2005,     
    Brazil has shifted from one of the world*s fastest growing economies      
    with one of the highest inflation rates to one of the lowest inflation    
    economies with one of the lowest (if somewhat irregular) growth rates.    
                                                                              
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
    But the real plan is not an orthodox economic policy. Economic orthodoxy  
    stems from the belief that constrained credit, limited government and     
    low inflation are policy tools designed to maximize growth. Orthodox      
    policies are means to an end. The real plan approaches the question from  
    the other side, in which strong growth is the enemy because it causes     
    runaway inflation that destroys economic, political and social            
    stability. As such, constrained credit, limited government and low        
    inflation are the goals of the real plan, not the means. The distinction  
    is sufficiently critical to bear repeating: Growth is the enemy of the    
    real plan, not its goal.                                                  
                                                                              
    What results is not so much a difference between perception and reality   
    but between what the Brazilian government intended and what the           
    international markets perceive those intentions to be. Investors across   
    the world believe the real plan*s ends are in actuality its means * and   
    they interpret those ends as being in perfect sync with their interests.  
    Thus, foreign investors have been voting for Brazil and the real plan     
    with their money. Inward investment to Brazil is at historical highs,     
    with the Brazilian Central Bank projecting the country*s 2011 foreign     
    direct investment take at a stunning $60 billion.                         
                                                                              
    All this money is working against the real plan*s goals: introducing      
    credit where the government seeks to constrain credit, overfunding banks  
    that the government wants to keep tightly regulated, encouraging          
    spending that the government deems dangerous. Brazilians may be feeling   
    richer because of the cheap, imported credit, but for government          
    planners the environment is becoming ever more dangerous, threatening     
    the hard-won stability that the real plan seeks to sustain. At the time   
    of this writing, annualized inflation has edged up to 6 percent, right    
    at the government*s redline.                                              
                                                                              
    The true success of the real plan lies in achieving economic stability    
    and, most of all, control. Brazil*s geographic and social challenges are  
    daunting, and no government could hope to address them competently if it  
    could not first master local macroeconomic forces. In this, the real      
    plan has performed to design. While hardly dead, inflation is restrained  
    * and that has given the government space to start addressing the myriad  
    other issues the country faces.                                           
                                                                              
    As with the interior expansion plan, the success of the real plan has     
    changed how Brazilians feel about their country. When inflation burned    
    through poor citizens* savings, when it destroyed livelihoods and         
    condemned tens of millions to lives of poverty, faith in central          
    institutions was lacking. The real plan may not promise great growth or   
    even great wealth, but it has delivered price stability * and with price  
    stability people can lay at least a limited groundwork for their own      
    futures. Savings holds value from year to year. Purchasing power is       
    constant. These are basic economic factors that most of the developed     
    world takes for granted but which are relatively new to the current       
    generation of Brazilians * and Brazilians rightly credit their central    
    government with achieving them.                                           
                                                                              
    Just as the interior expansion effort provided all of the Brazilian       
    states with a vested political interest in the Brazil project, the real   
    plan has provided all of the Brazilian states with a vested economic      
    interest in the central government. It is not so much that the real plan  
    removed the structural and geographic causes of Brazil*s inflation        
    problem * which is impossible to do * but it proved to Brazilians that    
    their country could be economically stable and that their government      
    could act in the interests of Brazil in its totality rather than simply   
    for whichever state happened to hold the presidency at the time.          
                                                                              
     Brazil*s Geopolitical Imperatives                                        
                                                                              
    Geopolitical imperatives are broad, strategic goals a country must        
    pursue if it is to achieve security and success. These are                
    non-ideological paths determined by the geography of a given country and  
    by the geography of its neighbors. Geopolitical imperatives typically     
    nest: The second imperative is dependent upon the first imperative, the   
    third upon the second, and so on. This is not the case for Brazil,        
    however.                                                                  
                                                                              
    Since Brazil occupies such a difficult geography, it has traditionally    
    been a weak state that has lacked the resources and institutional         
    capacity to greatly impact the world around it. Its first three           
    imperatives reflect this. As such, the order in which those imperatives   
    might be attained is largely determined by the constellation of forces    
    in Brazil*s near abroad * factors for the most part beyond the            
    Brazilians* ability to manipulate * rather than any decision-making       
    process in Brasilia. Brazil can only push to achieve these imperatives    
    as circumstances beyond its control allow.                                
                                                                              
       Imperative One: Protect the Coast                                      
                                                                              
    The Brazilian southern coast contains the country*s core territories.     
    However, the ruggedness of that coast and the disconnected enclave        
    nature of the core territories mean that infrastructure linking the       
    coastal territories will not ensure mutual defense. The only way Brazil   
    can protect its core itself is to cultivate a naval force of sufficient   
    strength to deter would-be predatory powers. Without such a navy, Brazil  
    would shatter into a series of (most likely mutually hostile)             
    city-states. And without a navy any Brazilian exports are utterly at the  
    mercy of more maritime-oriented entities.                                 
                                                                              
    But Brazil is capital poor and cannot afford such a navy. Historically,   
    this has led Brasilia to seek alliances with whatever the dominant        
    Atlantic power has happened to be in order to hold the traditionally      
    more powerful Argentina in check. In the first half of the 19th century,  
    the Brazilians sought out a favorable relationship with the British. But  
    the deeper expression of this imperative came from Brazil*s enthusiastic  
    embracing of the United States* Monroe Doctrine. Nearly alone among       
    Western Hemispheric powers, Brazil expressed enthusiasm for the American  
    neo-colonial policy of barring European states from the Western           
    Hemisphere, largely because it could not stand up to those powers         
    without assistance.                                                       
                                                                              
    Even today, Brazil*s navy is unable to patrol the Brazilian               
    coastline reliably beyond the Brazilian core territories. Thus, Brazil    
    maintains close * if not exactly friendly * relations with the United     
    States both to ensure that America never views Brazil as a state of       
    concern and as a hedge against other potential threats.                   
                                                                              
       Imperative Two: Selectively Expand into the Interior                   
                                                                              
    Developing (or outsourcing) a navy is one means of protecting Brazil*s    
    core. Another is to expand that core into new areas not so exposed to a   
    hostile navy. In this, Brazil faces several challenges. The coastal       
    enclaves are not large enough to generate their own economies of scale,   
    so reaching inland requires the expenditure of massive resources Brazil   
    simply does not have. As such, Brazil*s inland expansion has been         
    halting, slow and piecemeal and driven by an often badly coordinated mix  
    of government, oligarchic and foreign interests. The obvious target for   
    this expansion is into the subtropical and temperate regions of the       
    country*s south, not the tropical zone of the north.                      
                                                                              
    However, the farther these new territories are from the coast, the more   
    integrated they will naturally become into the capital-rich lands of the  
    Rio de la Plata region to the south. Ironically, in achieving strategic   
    depth and a better economic position, Brazil risks its territory          
    becoming more fully integrated into its neighbors, as opposed to the      
    Brazilian core.                                                           
                                                                              
    In this challenge, however, also lies an opportunity. When the economies  
    and populations of Brazil*s interior regions are small, they naturally    
    gravitate towards Argentina*s sphere of influence. But as they grow they  
    eventually reach a critical mass in terms of influence, which brings us   
    to the third imperative.                                                  
                                                                              
       Imperative Three: Expand into the Rio de la Plata Region               
                                                                              
    The solution lies in increasing Brazilian influence to the south so that  
    those territories ultimately answer to Brazilian economic and political   
    decision-making. Like the first two imperatives, this requires decades    
    of slow efforts to make any progress. It has only been in the past        
    generation that Brazil has created enough capital to encroach into the    
    Argentina-Brazilian buffer states of Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay.       
    Brazil has invested heavily into Bolivian energy and agriculture. Most    
    Bolivian foodstuffs are now sold to or through Brazil to the outside      
    world. Natural gas * responsible for by far the largest component of      
    Bolivian state income * is under the direct management of Brazilian       
    state-owned energy company Petroleos Brasileiros (Petrobras). In          
    Paraguay, Brazilians have migrated in significant numbers and are the     
    dominant investors in the economy * particularly in electricity, as the   
    two are partners in the Itaipu Dam. Brazilian (and Argentine) cash fuels  
    Uruguay*s vibrant financial sector, and Brazilian-born Uruguayan          
    citizens now own a majority of Uruguay*s farmland.                        
                                                                              
    The next logical question * something the normally nonconfrontational     
    Brazilians are currently struggling with * is what to do once economic    
    control has been seized but political control is not yet in place. Here   
    the Brazilians come up against an odd cultural barrier: Nonconfrontation  
    is hardwired into the Brazilian psyche. Even today, with the Brazilian    
    economy growing and Argentina continuing to struggle, there exists a      
    belief in government circles that Brazil needs to concentrate on          
    striking an equilibrium with Argentina, with perhaps the inclusion of     
    even Chile in a trilateral balance of power in the region (the Chileans   
    for their part want little to do with the Southern Cone and even less to  
    do with the Argentine-Brazilian balance of power).                        
                                                                              
    For all practical purposes, Brazil has already secured dominance in the   
    three buffer states * Uruguay, Bolivia and Paraguay are all but economic  
    satellites of Brazil * but in light of Brazil*s historically passive      
    foreign policy these states rarely shirk from demanding better terms out  
    of Brasilia. Uruguay charges steep fees on Brazilian cargo. Paraguay      
    recently was able to triple the cost of electricity produced by the       
    Itaipu Dam, Brazil*s single-largest source of electricity, and routinely  
    receives financial aid from Brazil and Mercosur. The Bolivian government  
    regularly confronts Medialuna landowners who are for all intents and      
    purposes are fully integrated into the Brazilian economy, and it has not  
    been shy about its attempts to nationalize energy assets owned by         
    Brazilian interests. If Brazil is going to make its gains stick, at some  
    point it will need to devise a strategy for formalizing its control of    
    the buffer states. That means, among other things, learning to be less    
    accommodating.                                                            
                                                                              
    There also looms a much more significant * potentially bruising *         
    competition. Brazil cannot be truly secure until at the very least it     
    controls the northern shore of the Rio de la Plata. That requires         
    significant penetration into Paraguay and de facto control of Uruguay     
    and of select pieces of northern Argentina. Were that to happen,          
    Brazil*s interior would have direct access to one of the world*s most     
    capital-rich regions. The marriage of such capital generation capacity    
    to Brazil*s pre-existing bulk will instantly transform Brazil into a      
    power with global potential.                                              
                                                                              
    But not before. Without these territories, the Southern Cone balance of   
    power remains in place no matter how weak Argentina becomes. So long as   
    Argentina can exercise functional independence, it persists as a          
    possible direct threat to Brazil, constrains Brazil*s ability to          
    generate its own capital and exists as a potential ally of extraregional  
    powers that might seek to limit Brazil*s rise.                            
                                                                              
    The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power's Struggle with Geography    
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
       Imperative Four: Challenge the Dominant Atlantic Power                 
                                                                              
    Should Brazil manage to consolidate control over the Rio de la Plata      
    basin the game changes greatly. At this point Brazil is no longer a       
    vulnerable, enclave-based state facing extreme challenges to its          
    development. Instead, Brazil would control the majority of the continent  
    and command broad swaths of easily developed arable land. Instead of      
    cowering in fear of regional naval powers, it would be the dominant       
    regional naval power. With that transformation, Brazil would not see      
    extraregional navies as friends protecting it from Argentina but as       
    enemies seeking to constrain its rise.                                    
                                                                              
    Obviously, this imperative will be well beyond Brazil*s reach for many    
    decades. Not only is Brazil*s navy far smaller than that of states with   
    one-third its population, it is nowhere close to commanding the Rio de    
    la Plata region. Until that happens, Brazil has no choice but to align    
    with whatever the Atlantic*s dominant power happens to be. To do          
    otherwise would risk the country*s exports and its overall economic and   
    political coherence.                                                      
                                                                              
     Contemporary Challenges: Escaping the Trap                               
                                                                              
    Contemporary Brazil faces three interlocking problems that pose severe    
    structural challenges to all of the economic stability it improbably has  
    attained: an overvalued currency, Mercosur and China.                     
                                                                              
    As to currency, investor enthusiasm for Brazil*s recent stability and     
    theoretical growth prospects has flooded the country with external        
    funding. In addition to complicating always-critical inflation concerns,  
    all that capital is having a demonstrable impact on the Brazilian         
    currency, pushing the real up by more than 50 percent in just the past    
    two years, and doubling it since 2003.                                    
                                                                              
    For Brazil*s commodity exports * all of which are dollar-denominated *    
    this has no demonstrable impact, but for the country*s industrial         
    exports this currency appreciation is disastrous. Because Brazil*s        
    infrastructure is inadequate and the country is capital poor, Brazil      
    produces very little that is high value-added; Such industries are the    
    providence of capital-rich, low-transport-cost economies such as Germany  
    and Japan. Instead, Brazil*s predominantly low- and medium-value-added    
    industries compete heavily on price. A 50 percent increase in the         
    currency largely guts any price competitiveness enjoyed by Brazil*s       
    sheltered industries. The only Brazilian firms benefiting from the mix    
    of impacts are those few high-skill firms that happen to price their      
    products in U.S. dollars, most notably oil firm Petrobras and aerospace   
    firm Embraer * which, while world class by any definition, are not        
    representative of the broader Brazilian economic structure.               
                                                                              
    Second, Brazil has limited itself with the highly distorting and          
    damaging trade network known as Mercosur. Recall that an oligarchy has    
    long dominated the Brazilian economy, controlling most of the country*s   
    scarce capital and enjoying a privileged economic and political           
    position. Unlike most trade agreements * which are negotiated by          
    governments on behalf of the corporate world * Brazil*s oligarchic        
    background meant these oligarchs negotiated Mercosur on behalf of the     
    Brazilian government.                                                     
                                                                              
    This abnormal process radically changed the end result. A normal trade    
    deal removes barriers to trade and exposes companies in all the affected  
    countries to competition from each other. In Mercosur*s case, the         
    various Brazilian industrialists were able to block off entire swaths of  
    the economy for themselves, largely eliminating foreign competition. As   
    such, Brazil*s industrial sector is shielded from competition with        
    outside forces * and even from most other forces within Mercosur. Add in  
    a 50 percent currency appreciation and Brazil*s industrial base is now    
    one of the world*s least competitive.                                     
                                                                              
    Third, Brazil has allowed competition from the one power most capable of  
    destroying that sheltered industrial base: China. Throughout the past     
    decade, Brazilian governments have sought Chinese investment largely to   
    help alleviate some of the country*s transport bottlenecks. The Chinese,  
    hungry for Brazilian resources, have happily complied. But that           
    infrastructure development has come at the cost of granting Chinese       
    firms Brazilian market access, and that access * and even the investment  
    * is damaging the Brazilian system.                                       
                                                                              
    At its core it is a difference in development models. The Chinese system  
    is based on ultraloose capital access aimed at maximizing employment and  
    throughput, regardless of the impact on profitability and inflation *     
    about as far as possible from the real plan. This has had a number of     
    negative side effects on the Chinese system, but as regards Brazil, it    
    has resulted in a flood of subsidized Chinese imports.                    
                                                                              
    The China trap is catching Brazil in three ways. The first is direct      
    competition for market share in Brazil. The Chinese yuan is de facto      
    pegged to the dollar, so Brazilian goods are now even less competitive    
    versus Chinese goods on the domestic market (even before one takes into   
    account that Chinese goods are for all intents and purposes subsidized).  
    Second, China is engaging in indirect competition for market share by     
    shipping goods into Brazil via other Mercosur member states * a fact      
    that has prompted Brazil to raise non-tariff barriers that penalize       
    Mercosur partners in an effort to stem Chinese competition. Third, the    
    Chinese are among those international investors whose cash is pushing     
    the value of the real ever upward. With every dollar the Chinese invest   
    into Brazilian commodity production, the real goes just a bit higher and  
    Chinese goods edge out their Brazilian counterparts just a bit more.      
                                                                              
    Resisting these trends will require some clever and quick policymaking    
    along with a remarkable amount of political bravery. For example,         
    scrapping Mercosur and adopting free market policies would throw the      
    Brazilian market open to global competition. That would decimate          
    Brazil*s inefficient industrial base in the short run with the expected   
    knock-on impact on employment, making it a policy the oligarchic and      
    powerful labor unions alike would oppose. But it is difficult to imagine  
    Brazilian industry progressing past its current stunted level if it is    
    not forced to play on a larger field, and weakening the hold of the       
    oligarchs is now at least a century overdue. Two more years of a rising   
    currency and an enervating Chinese relationship will surely destroy much  
    of the progress the Brazilians have painstakingly made in recent          
    decades.                                                                  
                                                                              
    The current president, Dilma Rousseff, is a non-charismatic, no-nonsense  
    technocrat well known for demanding respect and results, a good person    
    to have in office given the nature of Brazil*s [IMG] contemporary         
    challenges. Success in any free market-oriented reforms would require     
    brutal and rapid changes in Brazil*s standard operating procedures *      
    changes that would undoubtedly come with serious political risks. The     
    alternative is to continue to pursue protectionist, defensive policies    
    while allowing international forces to shape Brazil rather than Brazil    
    developing the means to shape international forces. This could well be    
    the path Brazil follows. After all, the damage being inflicted by         
    Mercosur and the China relationship are direct outcomes of policies       
    Brazil chose to follow, rather than anything produced by Brazil*s         
    geography.                                                                
                                                                              
    We do not mean to belittle Brazilians* achievements to date. Taming       
    their lands, taming inflation and crafting a series of economic sectors   
    fully deserving of international acclaim are no small feats. But          
    insufficient infrastructure, an ossified oligarchy, a shallow skilled     
    labor pool and the looming question of Argentina continue to define the   
    Brazilian position. The maintenance of that position remains largely      
    beyond the control of the Brazilian government. The economy remains       
    hooked on commodities whose prices are set far beyond the continent.      
    Their ability to supply those commodities is largely dependent upon       
    infrastructure in turn dependent upon foreign financing. Even Brazilian   
    dominance of their southern tier is as much a result of what Argentina    
    has done wrong as opposed to what Brazil has done right.                  
                                                                              
    For Brazil to emerge as a significant extraregional power, Brazilians     
    must first address a lengthy list of internal and regional issues. These  
    include * but are hardly limited to * moving beyond their oligarchic      
    economic system, ensuring that Argentina will never again threaten it     
    and formalizing their dominant position in the border states of Bolivia,  
    Paraguay, and Uruguay. These cannot be accomplished easily, but doing so  
    is the price Brazilians must pay if they are to be the masters of their   
    own destiny rather than simply accepting an environment crafted by        
    others.                                                                   
                                                                              
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","2011-07-19 15:04:26",1,"2012-08-02 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/492003_the-geopolitics-of-brazil-an-emergent-power-s-struggle-with.html","","","krijgsman@sympatico.ca",""
520140,"[Custom Intelligence Services] Greece and Military risks
","Luke Sullivan sent a message using the contact form at  
https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

Dear Sir,

I work with Macquarie Group ( Australian listed investment bank ) and we have  
clients that would be interested to hear from a well versed commentator on  
Greece that can talk through the history of the military's involvement in  
government. We would sometimes go back to the brookings institute to engage  
professionals on these sorts of topics but on this occasion I thought that i  
would reach out to you. We would engage in a fee for service arrangement if  
we thik there is interest. Thanks
","2011-11-02 15:38:02",1,"2012-03-07 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/520140_-custom-intelligence-services-greece-and-military-risks-.html","Luke.Sullivan@Macquarie.com","","service@stratfor.com",""
558496,"email of Fred Burton
","Hi.

I am looking for the e-mail of Mr. Burton. Would be glad, if you can send it.

Thank you.



Sincerely,

Veni Markovski

Senior Advisor for International Projects
<http://www.daits.government.bg/>State Agency for IT and Communications
<http://www.government.bg/>Council of Ministers | REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA
----------------
email: <mailto:veni@veni.com>veni@veni.com | email2: 
<mailto:veni@daits.government.bg>veni@daits.government.bg
office: +1-646-873-7708 | office2: +359-2-401-8008 | fax: +1-212-319-5955
Bulgarian Consulate General, 121 E 62nd Str., New York, NY 10021, USA
","2008-08-10 23:45:37",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/558496_email-of-fred-burton-.html","veni@daits.government.bg","","service@stratfor.com",""
589605,"Re: WEB ALERT! Stratfor Corp Site
","Mr. Faron,

We read about you in a newspaper(\"O Globo\" - 16/07/2006) here, in Rio de 
Janeiro, Brazil, and they called you as \"Private CIA\". They wrote that 
you prevised the invasion of Lebanon by Israel.
After that we would like to know your services, specially for Public 
Safety, Law Enforcement,Organized Crime, Military Power, IT, 
Telecomunications, C4ISR, SIGINT, COMINT, Terrorism and 
Counterterrorism, with details and prices.
I am a Major from Rio de Janeiro Military Police Department, in Brazil, 
working as Intelligence Advisor, and Manager of R&D from 
DETEL(www.detel.rj.gov.br)of CMGC(www.gabmilitar.rj.gov.br).
I received e-mails from your directors Mike Parks and Fred Burton in 
order to use a premium subscribe for a short period.
We would like to understand how you analyze Brazilian questions if you 
don´t work with our language.

Major Cajueiro
Intelligence Advisor
Manager of R&D
DETEL

Stratfor Service escreveu:
>
> Maj. Cajueiro,
>
> Stratfor only prints in English, so I can confidently say that piece 
> is not our work. I have sent this on to my analysts to see of they can 
> provide any feedback.
>
> If you find that you need further assistance, the Customer Service 
> Department is available by phone at 1-877-9STRAT4 between the hours of 
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> service@stratfor.com <mailto:service@stratfor.com>.
>
> Faron Sagebiel
>
> Stratfor Customer Service
>
> Ph: 512-744-4087
>
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>
> * *
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> *Get Free Time on Your Subscription with Stratfor’s New Referral 
> Rewards Program! *
>
> */Ask me how you can have extra days, months or years added to your 
> subscription with Stratfor’s new Referral Rewards Program! Or find out 
> at www.stratfor.com/referral <http://www.stratfor.com/referral>. /*
>
> -----Original Message-----
> *From:* Strategic Forecasting Web Site [mailto:noreply@stratfor.com]
> *Sent:* Wednesday, August 16, 2006 5:37 PM
> *To:* Information - Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
> *Subject:* WEB ALERT! Stratfor Corp Site
>
> **Submit_Date:** 08-16-06 17:24
>
> **FormID:** Contact_Us_StratforCom
>
> **Salutation:** Mr
>
> **FirstName:** Fábio
>
> **LastName:** Cajueiro
>
> **Phone:** 55-21-2299-2111
>
> **Email:** fabcaj@policiamilitar.rj.gov.br
>
> **HowDidYouHear:** Magazine
>
> **Message:**
>
> I received an e-mail from a military officer here in Brazil, with this 
> message:
> \"Exclusivo – Os estrategistas do Palácio do Planalto entraram em 
> pânico com o teor explosivo de um documento também enviado ao Senado, 
> na quarta-feira passada, pela entidade denominada “Para o Bem da 
> América Latina”, abastecida de informações pelo serviço internacional 
> da CIA, a agência central de inteligência dos Estados Unidos. A 
> entidade enviou ao presidente Lula da Silva e aos senadores um dossiê 
> denunciando que a corrupção no Brasil está financiando o crime 
> organizado e o terrorismo.
>
> O documento cita nominalmente os responsáveis por uma grande 
> movimentação de “dinheiro sujo” que sai do Brasil para o exterior. 
> Foram denunciados: três governadores, 25 deputados, 178 prefeitos, 133 
> desembargadores e 245 juízes. A entidade calcula que a rede de 
> corrupção conte com 2.500 funcionários dos poderes Judiciário, 
> Legislativo e Executivo. O maior problema é que o esquema estaria 
> financiando a ação de grupos terroristas, que promovem as recentes 
> ações de guerrilha urbana no País.
>
> O documento ao Senado deixa bem claro: “O relatório é para alertar 
> todos os senadores sobre a real situação que a Presidência da 
> República está omitindo, por conta da campanha eleitoral. A maior 
> cidade da América do Sul está sitiada por uma célula terrorista. 
> Esperam-se ataques de grandes proporções até as eleições”. O quadro 
> preocupa a “Águia”. A Secretária de Estado dos EUA, Condoleezza Rice, 
> manifestou semana passada, por telefone, ao presidente George W. C. 
> Bush, sua preocupação com situação política e do avanço do terror no 
> Brasil.
>
> Jornais norte-americanos já colocam o Brasil em sexto lugar na 
> preocupação com redes de terrorismo. Os EUA temem que células 
> terroristas que atuam junto com a organização criminosa Primeiro 
> Comando da Capital tenham ligações com grupos muçulmanos e da Europa, 
> como o IRA (Exército Republicano Irlandês) e o ETA (grupo separatista 
> basco). Os guerrilheiros daqui do Brasil estariam recebendo ordens 
> vindas da Colômbia e da Venezuela. As armas viriam do Paraguai, onde 
> foi recentemente desbaratada uma “célula de fornecedores”. O armamento 
> entraria pelos estados do Paraná e Mato Grosso.
>
> Uma prova da ação organizada dos terroristas, nos moldes europeus ou 
> do Oriente Médio, foi o seqüestro do repórter da Rede Globo em São 
> Paulo, Gulherme Portanova. Ele foi libertado aos 30 minutos desta 
> segunda-feira, no bairro do Morumbi, na Zona Sul de São Paulo. Ficou 
> em poder dos bandidos deste às 8 horas da manhã de sábado, quando foi 
> dominado junto com o auxiliar técnico Alexandre Calado, que foi solto 
> antes para cumprir uma missão dos bandidos.
>
> A libertação do jornalista dependeria da divulgação de um vídeo, de 3 
> minutos e 5 segundos de duração, por suposta ordem do PCC. A Globo 
> obedeceu seguindo os conselhos de sua consultoria de segurança, que é 
> ligada ao serviço secreto inglês. No DVD, exibido pela TV Globo de São 
> Paulo, à 0h 28min de domingo, um criminoso faz críticas ao sistema 
> penitenciário brasileiro. O marginal, supostamente ligado ao PCC, 
> defende um mutirão para revisão de penas, melhores condições 
> carcerárias, e contra o RDD (Regime Diferencial Disciplinado).
>
> O PCC paulista já é considerado uma célula terrorista mais forte que o 
> Hezbollah que é combatido por Israel, no Líbano. O relatório da ONG 
> ligada à CIA e à Direção Nacional de Inteligência dos EUA ressalta que 
> o presidente Bush está preocupado com Cuba, com a Venezuela e agora 
> com o Brasil. Não será surpresa se, ao longo desta semana, o 
> presidente Lula da Silva receber uma ligação da Casa Branca, 
> advertindo sobre o problema, e cobrando uma solução enérgica contra a 
> organização dos terroristas, sobretudo na tríplice fronteira entre o 
> Brasil, a Argentina e o Paraguai.
>
> Ataque ao governo petista
>
> O relatório da “águia” deixa claro aos senadores e ao próprio governo 
> brasileiro que as recentes mega-operações da Polícia Federal, com 
> prisões de desembargadores, políticos e até de militares, causou 
> estarrecimento ao serviço de inteligência norte-americano.
>
> A entidade considera evidentes os indícios de exploração política nas 
> operações da PF, “em função da situação de um governo que está 
> enlameado na corrupção e que nos últimos momentos começa uma caça às 
> bruxas, jogando com relatórios sobre denúncias de corrupção que há 
> anos já se sabia”.
>
> O relatório aponta que a situação é muito mais grave do que a indicada 
> pelo Secretário de Segurança de São Paulo, Saulo Abreu de Castro, que 
> foi ameaçado de processo por sugerir que haveria ligações entre o 
> Partido dos Trabalhadores e o Primeiro Comando da Capital – fato que 
> foi repudiado pelo presidente Lula da Silva e por seu partido.\"
>
> Do you know or may write something about this?
> I don´t translate this in order to show you as I received.
> If you can send me an answer without breaking your national security 
> or protocols, we appreciate.
>
> Sicerely,
>
> Major Cajueiro
>
>
>
> **OtherComment:** Military and Law Enforcement Inquiry
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> IP Address: 200.222.27.249
>
> TimeStamp: Wed, 16 Aug 2006 17:37:02 -0500
>
> UserAgent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.1; pt-BR; rv:1.8.0.6) 
> Gecko/20060728 Firefox/1.5.0.6
>
","2006-08-17 22:55:43",1,"2012-08-02 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/589605_re-web-alert-stratfor-corp-site-.html","fabcaj@policiamilitar.rj.gov.br","","service@stratfor.com",""
679231,"INDIA/PAKISTAN/CT- LeT planned to kill CM Modi using car: WikiLeaks
","[We knew it...Wikileak (though not original source of Info, but acted as ve=
ctor/parasite) confirmed it...]

LeT planned to kill CM Modi using car: WikiLeaks

Monday, December 6, 2010, 8:32 [IST]=20


New Delhi, Dec 6: The United States diplomatic cables released by whistle-b=
lowing website WikiLeaks revealed that the terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba =
(LeT) had planned an attack on Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi.

The LeT planed the plot to assassinate Narendra modi just seven months afte=
r 2008 Mumbai terrorist attack. The plan was to kill Modi was described as =
\"operations=E2=80=A6involving a car\" in the diplomatic cable sent from the =
office of the Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton.

The cable described that the plot on Modi was planned by a Pakistan LeT mem=
ber Shafiq Khafa and scheduled to carry out by Indian LeT member Sameer Hus=
sein.

The cable sent on Jun 2009 said, \"LeT member Shafiq Khafa, possibly prepari=
ng for operation, and Hussein -- an India-based Lashkar-e-Taiba member -- c=
ontinued operational planning on three tasks in early June. The tasks were =
associated with a possible operation against Gujarat chief minister Narendr=
a Modi, the establishment of a training camp and unspecified work involving=
 a car. Hussein would coordinate his activities with an India-based colleag=
ue identified as Sameer.\" Read: =E0=A4=B9=E0=A4=BF=E0=A4=A8=E0=A5=8D=E0=A4=
=A6=E0=A5=80 =E0=A4=AE=E0=A5=87=E0=A4=82 The cable also exposed that LeT wa=
s searching for ideal sites in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala for differe=
nt operations.


--=20
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/679231_india-pakistan-ct-let-planned-to-kill-cm-modi-using-car.html","animesh.roul@stratfor.com","","os@stratfor.com",""
700446,"PAKISTAN/US- Plea to ban WikiLeaks dismissed
","
[This leaks biz is getting out of hand in India and Pak as well. In think tanks and media circle (esp in India) US is loosing its stature for double standard and people are praising wikileaks...Very hard to regain the lost ground for US...AR]


Plea to ban WikiLeaks dismissed
Updated at: 0918 PST, Friday, December 03, 2010
http://www.geo.tv/


 LAHORE: The Lahore High Court has dismissed a plea by a local lawyer Arif Gondal to ban the WikiLeaks in Pakistan, Geo News reported Friday.The petitioner was of the view that the leaks were defaming the leadership of the country and must be banned inside Pakistan.

-- 
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/700446_pakistan-us-plea-to-ban-wikileaks-dismissed-.html","animesh.roul@stratfor.com","","os@stratfor.com,mesa@stratfor.com",""
707735,"Re: [CT] [OS] S3* - SPAIN/CUBA - Spain arrests suspected Cuban AQ
 operative
","   sounds like another grassroots propagandist with no real operational
   plans.  But Majorca would've been a pretty high profile target. (the
   spanish should arrest the doping doctors on the islands too)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marc Lanthemann\" <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   To: alerts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Tuesday, September 20, 2011 3:34:09 PM
   Subject: [OS] S3* - SPAIN/CUBA - Spain arrests suspected Cuban AQ
   operative

   cuban aq?

   http://www.cnn.com/2011/09/20/world/europe/spain-al-qaeda-arrest/

                   Spain arrests suspected al Qaeda operative

   From Al Goodman, CNN
   updated 2:43 PM EST, Tue September 20, 2011
   STORY HIGHLIGHTS
     * NEW: The suspect has been taken to Madrid for arraignment
     * The Cuban national was arrested on the resort island of Mallorca
     * Spanish authorities say he was attempting to recruit for al Qaeda
     * Mallorca is a popular tourist draw for many Europeans

   Madrid, Spain (CNN) -- Spanish Civil Guards have arrested a Cuban man on
   the Mediterranean island of Mallorca on suspicion of belonging to Al
   Qaeda, the Interior Ministry said in a statement Tuesday.

   The suspect, identified only by his initials J.E.F.M., \"had undergone a
   process of radicalization in recent years,\" the statement said. The arrest
   was made in Cala Ratjada, on the northeast side of Mallorca, about 80
   kilometers (50 miles) from the island's capital, Palma de Mallorca.

   Authorities have been investigating the suspect since last year. He is
   wanted for allegedly recruiting and indoctrinating others for the
   terrorist group and for distributing public messages aimed at provoking
   terrorist attacks, the statement said.

   Spain's Balearic archipelago in the Mediterranean is a popular tourist
   resort for Spaniards and others from Europe, with large contingents of
   Britons and Germans visiting or residing there.

   An Interior Ministry spokeswoman, speaking under customary anonymity, said
   the 24-year-old suspect has been taken to Madrid for arraignment before
   the National Court, which handles terrorism cases. Under Spanish law, he
   can be held for up to 72 hours before arraignment.

   The suspect had 1,120 radical videos on the Internet, mostly produced by
   him, and he was the administrator of various internet channels, the
   Interior Ministry said. He used the internet for the radical
   indoctrination of other individuals, the statement said.

   Authorities seized various portable computers, external hard drives and
   USB memory sticks, according to the ministry.

   Since the Madrid train bombings of 2004 that killed 191 people and wounded
   1,800 others, Spanish police have arrested more than 400 suspected al
   Qaeda militants or collaborators. Most have been of North African or
   Middle Eastern origin, with a few from Latin America, the spokeswoman
   said.

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   Office: +1 512-279-9479
   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-21 13:21:06",1,"2012-08-06 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/707735_re-ct-os-s3-spain-cuba-spain-arrests-suspected-cuban-aq.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","mailto:ct@stratfor.com","ct@stratfor.com",""
725029,"Punish Dow Chemicals: US legislators
","Punish Dow Chemicals: US legislators                                                                     
14 Jun 2008, 2225 hrs IST,IANS                                                                           
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Pollution/Punish_Dow_Chemicals_US_legislators/articleshow/3129704.cms 
                                                                                                         
                                                                                                         
                                                                                                         
NEW DELHI: Expressing solidarity with the Bhopal gas leak victims, 16 US House of Congress members led   
by Padma Bhushan Frank Pallone Jr have urged Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to bring Dow Chemicals to     
justice.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                         
Their letter dated June 5 is strong in its criticism of the US-based Dow Chemical, which took over Union 
Carbide, in whose plant the disaster took place on December 2-3, 1984.                                   
                                                                                                         
\"The conduct of American corporations outside the US is a long-standing concern of ours. In this case,   
US corporations have refused to submit to the jurisdiction of foreign (Indian) courts. It is outrageous  
that the executives of Union Carbide and its successor, Dow Chemical, have yet to be brought to          
justice,\" the letter reads.                                                                              
                                                                                                         
In the Bhopal gas leak holocaust, often called the world's worst industrial disaster, the Union Carbide  
pesticide plant leaked over 40 tonnes of methyl isocyanate (MIC) gas, which killed at least 3,800 people 
and affected many thousands.                                                                             
                                                                                                         
The US legislators' letter is the latest in a tide of support that has flowed in from overseas,          
including endorsements from British and Scottish MPs, Amnesty International, and more than 100 eminent   
writers and artists.                                                                                     
                                                                                                         
The letter, a copy of which was given to the media by a group of survivors holding protests and an       
indefinite hunger strike here, said: \"We are writing to express our support for the people of Bhopal,    
India, victims of the world's worst industrial disaster in 1984.                                         
                                                                                                         
\"The survivors marched 500 miles in February and March from Bhopal to New Delhi, where they have been    
for over 60 days. We urge you to personally meet the survivor groups and address their long-standing     
demands for justice and a life of dignity,\" said the letter addressed to the prime minister.             
                                                                                                         
Nearly 100 people including survivors, victims' family members and activists supporting the cause are    
protesting near Jantar Mantar in the heart of New Delhi. They say they won't stop the protest unless     
Manmohan Singh meets them and solves their problems.                                                     
Besides Pallone Jr, the Congress members who have signed the letter include Patrick Kennedy, Barbara Lee 
and Steve Rothman.                                                                                       
                                                                                                         
Nityanand Jayraman, an activist on protest, said that the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) has received     
over 5,027 faxes urging him to meet the victims and listen to their demands.                             
                                                                                                         
While the PMO responded to their demands with a letter, organisations of gas leak survivors have found   
the response unsatisfactory.                                                                             
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/725029_punish-dow-chemicals-us-legislators-.html","animesh.roul@stratfor.com","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com",""
731607,"Re: [CT] Anonymous potential
","   Ah, OK I was unaware of this. We will get something out soon. 
   From: Jacob Shapiro <jacob.shapiro@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>
   Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 07:54:36 -0500
   To: <ct@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [CT] Anonymous potential
   we are still interested in it, last i heard the discussion was going to be
   redrafted and sent out again.

   On 10/24/11 7:41 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

     yes, understood.  I didn't know they chose not to publish it.  We had
     talked about narrowing the focus.

     On 10/24/11 7:35 AM, scott stewart wrote:

       Remember, just because OPS choses not to publish something at a
       particular time does not mean that we stop following the issue. 
       From: Colby Martin <colby.martin@stratfor.com>
       Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>
       Date: Sun, 23 Oct 2011 11:19:29 -0500
       To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>
       Subject: [CT] Anonymous potential
       I don't know what happened to our anonymous piece Tristan was going to
       write, but I still think a look is valuable.  They don't just have to
       do denial of service attacks, but release of personal information -
       such as what they did against Sony Playstation and now these douche
       bags.  What would happen if they could hack into an email account of a
       public figure and find connections to El Chapo?  What if they found
       bank accounts shared by public officials and cartel members?  What if
       websites they targeted had names and addresses of officials in any
       country linked to child porno rings?  I just think that we need to
       look at what Anonymous could do to change their MO, and become more
       effective than just shutting down websites. 

       Anonymous Hacks Lolita City Alleged Porn Ring

       First Posted: 10/22/11 11:29 AM ET Updated: 10/22/11 03:21 PM ET

       The \"hacktivist\" group Anonymous has uncovered what it says was a
       massive child pornography ring, according to the Examiner.

       The hackers targeted several websites, including \"Lolita City,\" which
       the Guardian says included 1,589 users.

       The attack was part of Anonymous' \"Operation Darknet.\" The Guardian
       explains that \"Darknet websites are part of the Invisible Web,
       sometimes called the Deep Web, containing content that is not part of
       the Surface Web, which is indexed by standard search engines.\"

       Anonymous published the usernames of those who frequent Lolita City,
       which, the Guardian reports, had 100 gigabytes of child porn.

       \"We have been targeting them in secret for a while now, taking down
       their servers as much as possible,\" one hacker named Arson told Gawker
       in a chat. \"We decided to seek media attention for this operation so
       that we may get the resources needed to shut them down on a more
       permanent basis.\"

       Some of the username's are explicit, while others are just creepy and
       ominous. Take the monickers \"redhotchily\", \"PantyhosePedo\" and
       \"PureEvil\" as examples.

       Unlike its reported attempts to \"erase\" the New York Stock Exchange,
       or its alleged involvement in the Playstation hack, the uncovering of
       an alleged child porn ring is unlikely to bring Anonymous much scorn.

       This latest Anonymous mission is more in line with the group's
       targeting of the nearly universally despised Westboro Baptist Church.

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

   --
   Jacob Shapiro
   STRATFOR
   Director, Operations Center
   cell: 404.234.9739
   office: 512.279.9489
   e-mail: jacob.shapiro@stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 15:19:01",1,"2012-03-06 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/731607_re-ct-anonymous-potential-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:ct@stratfor.com","ct@stratfor.com,jacob.shapiro@stratfor.com",""
745547,"Re: [CT] [TACTICAL]  Palantir (software)
","   Oh shit, I was way off.  I mixed these guys up with another company in my
   head.  Kerley is right about it's analytical functions.  The main public
   platform they are selling can crunch a lot of data and is used to identify
   and track fraudulent activity. These guys also came up for working with
   HBGary in trying to monitor wikileaks.

   I think Palantir is up to some shadier stuff to.  Including funding
   facebook........  (palantir's CEO is even depicted in the movie)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   To: \"CT AOR\" <ct@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 8, 2011 3:30:52 PM
   Subject: Re: [CT] [TACTICAL]  Palantir (software)

   Yes, I think they do deep packet inspection stuff.  To oversimplify, this
   means the ability to look through internet traffic very carefully. 
   Similar to the stuff the Syrians were recently reported to be using. 

   Great for monitoring people who think they are anonymous, and, wait for
   it.......attribution!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Rodger Baker\" <rbaker@stratfor.com>
   To: \"CT AOR\" <ct@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"TACTICAL\" <tactical@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 8, 2011 3:27:23 PM
   Subject: Re: [TACTICAL] [CT] Palantir (software)

   I'm pretty sure I demoed one of their systems once.

   http://www.palantirtech.com/government

   On Nov 8, 2011, at 3:16 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

   > ** anybody heard of this software?
   >
   > --------------------------------------------------------------------
   >
   > a company called Palantir, and it was their software that DHS/ICE used
   > to help light up the Zeta network. You'll recall that the sweep of
   > arrests was massive. I think there was a report that said there was some
   > kind of law enforcement action in all 50 states, in addition to Mexico
   > and other countries.

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
   www.STRATFOR.com

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
   www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-08 23:07:18",1,"2012-02-27 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/745547_re-ct-tactical-palantir-software-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","mailto:ct@stratfor.com","ct@stratfor.com",""
746568,"Re: [CT] Anonymous and Occupy divergence...in the Iowa caucuses
","   occupying the caucasus themselves would be impossible -- as Sean noted its
   direct participatory democracy...each congressional district is split into
   not-so-small number of precincts, withe separate meeting places for
   democrats and republicans

   so my home town -- population 26k -- had 12 caucasus locations

   the greater des moines are (cue the laughter) would have something like 25
   times that

   and there is one other nice thing about Iowa -- the roads leading out are
   in immaculate condition

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   To: \"CT AOR\" <ct@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Peter Zeihan\" <peter.zeihan@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, November 9, 2011 9:30:51 PM
   Subject: Anonymous and Occupy divergence...in the Iowa caucuses

   Ironically after all my Anonymous bashing, i want to point out a very
   minor development. Mainly because it's funny to me. 

   I mentioned the Occupy Des Moines protest last week sometime.  It is very
   small, and a lot like Austin's.  They have been planning for a few weeks
   to Occupy the Iowa caucuses.  For those of you that don't know about the
   practice of the most important local democratic process in the world, the
   Iowa Caucuses are the first round of true competition between presidential
   candidates.  Unlike voting in a primary, it's more like a town hall
   meeting with much debate and discussion--a very open democratic form.  A
   candidate doesn't have to win Iowa necessarily to get the presidential
   nomination, but it serves to weed most of the bad ones early on in the
   race  (Iowans are fallible, they have made mistakes too). It's the one
   time that Iowa has an influence on politics, and I often say it is Iowa's
   one good thing.  I think it's January 3. 

   Back to the protestors.  Their plan has been developing to \"occupy\"
   candidate's offices.  That really means protest in front of the offices,
   which if you think of all the little shitty strip malls you see around,
   one small section would be a campaign office.  They have no security, and
   allow a lot of access to candidates if they choose to campaign in Iowa.
   The Occupy Des Moines group are not at all planning to disrupt the
   Caucuses functioning.  Though I wouldn't be surprised if they protested
   outside caucus meeting places, or more likely, brought their signs and
   slogans in with them.  These people are experienced organizers (as it
   comes to des moines), and know that if they have a political impact, one
   of the best places to aim it is the Caucuses. 

   Now here comes \"Anonymous.\"  Those of you that read the Wired background
   know that their real effect has been in popularizing \"memes.\"  One of
   these was actually Occupy Wall Street- 
   http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/20/occupy-wall-street-anonymous-connection_n_1021665.html 
   The mob of computer users and protest movement have been running on
   parallel tracks for awhile, and have served to mutually reinforce each
   other.

   Whoever from Anonymous made this new video about the Caucuses has made an
   ass out of themselves.  The video recommends actually shutting down the
   Caucuses.  That is both tactically dumb for the Occupy movement, but also
   totally antithetical to its general ideology.  For example, a Caucus
   functions very similarly to the Occupy General Assembly meetings--direct
   participatory democracy. 

   The Des Moines organizers have already spoken up- saying they have nothing
   to do with this \"Anonymous\" bullshit.  I'm happy to see I left them with
   some sense of realism.  This little event is not going to matter very
   much, but it shows how uncoordinated Anonymous is. 

   See the article below, the video is at the link. 

   Video calls for shutting down Iowa caucuses; the group Anonymous claims
   responsibility
   Jason Clayworth
   4:55 PM, Nov 6, 2011
   http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/11/06/video-calls-for-shutting-down-iowa-caucuses-the-group-anonymous-claims-responsibility/

   An anarchist-style movement that has caught the attention of the FBI and
   taken credit for hacking into military and corporate websites has now
   claimed responsibility for creating a video that urges its supporters to
   shut down the Iowa caucuses.

   Local authorities say they are aware of the video, are preparing for
   possible action by the group and are in contact with the presidential
   campaigns about the issue.

   A computer-generated voice in the online video, which had received more
   than 1,600 views by Sunday evening, says, a**Both parties are desecrating
   the American democracy and committing crimes against humanity on behalf of
   the American people.a**

   It continues: a**The primaries and caucuses put on by these parties are
   part of an elaborate scam that deceives the public into voting for
   candidates that serve the private interests of the mega corporations.
   These parties have deliberately driven tens of millions of people into
   poverty.a**

   It later says: a**We are calling upon you to occupy the campaign offices
   of presidential headquarters in Des Moines, Iowa, on Dec. 27, and
   peacefully shut down the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3.a**

   The group is believed to have no centralized operational leadership and
   appears to be piggybacking on the Occupy Des Moines movement.

   But Occupy Des Moines leaders say therea**s a difference: The Iowa
   groupa**s planned sit-ins at presidential campaign headquarters are not
   intended to shut down the Iowa caucuses, they say. Rather, they want to
   target presidential candidates and big-moneyed corporations that activists
   say are pulling the strings behind the scenes.

   While there are similarities between the groupsa** beliefs, they are
   separate, Occupy Des Moines participants emphasized Sunday.

   a**I dona**t like it one bit,a** former Rep. Ed Fallon, a Des Moines
   Democrat and participant in Occupy Des Moines, said of the video on
   Sunday. a**It doesna**t fit with my definition of Gandhi- and Martin
   Luther King Jr.-style nonviolence. The core of nonviolent action is truth.
   And if you are doing everything you can to be truthful, then you should be
   up front and transparent. No distorting of your voice or hiding.a**

   FBI sees Anonymous as security threat

   The Anonymous movement has become a potential national security threat,
   according to an article published in September by the Associated Press.

   The FBI has carried out more than 75 raids and arrested at least 16 people
   this year in connection with illegal Internet hacking jobs for which the
   group has claimed responsibility, according to the AP. One demonstration
   disrupted traffic in San Francisco as a protest after the Bay Area Rapid
   Transit system shut off cell service to deter a planned protest of a
   police shooting on a subway platform.

   The group also claimed responsibility for hacking the online payment
   processing center PayPal after it had suspended WikiLeaksa** account after
   WikiLeaks published sensitive U.S. government intelligence documents, the
   AP reported.

   Three of the Iowa campaign headquarters of presidential candidates are in
   Urbandale a** those of Michele Bachmann, a U.S. representative from
   Minnesota; former Godfathera**s Pizza CEO Herman Cain; and former
   Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

   Urbandale police are aware of the video, and while they arena**t releasing
   details of their security plans, authorities will be prepared should the
   demonstrations take an illegal turn, Urbandale officer Randy Peterson said
   Sunday.

   a**Wea**ll just try to address any issue as they arise,a** Peterson said.

   Occupy movement: We dona**t plan to interfere with voting

   Occupy Des Moines, an offshoot of an anti-Wall Street protest group, last
   week announced plans to launch nonviolent sit-ins inside campaign offices
   in the final week before the Iowa caucuses. Some of the groupa**s members
   have said they expect large-scale arrests, but they have emphasized they
   do not plan to commit violence or interfere with voting.

   a**There might be some overlapa** in what the groups believe, a**but
   Anonymous speaks for themselves and the Occupy Movement speaks for
   itself,a** said David Goodner, a demonstrator who often speaks on behalf
   of Occupy Des Moines. a**Whether the public can understand that or not,
   Ia**m not sure, but for me therea**s a clear difference.a**

   State officials were preparing for a variety of public safety scenarios
   associated with the Iowa caucuses before the video was released, said John
   Benson, a public information officer for Iowaa**s Homeland Security and
   Emergency Management Division

   a**Obviously with the video that theya**ve put out and some of the other
   work theya**re doing, that certainly increases your overall awareness,a**
   Benson said. a**But to say wea**re going to do something specific in our
   planning process, we cana**t say that right now, but it certainly has our
   attention.a**

   Party leaders: Let caucuses proceed

   Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Matt Strawn said the partya**s state
   central committee will discuss the situation at its next meeting.

   a**Successive generations of Iowans of both political parties have worked
   awfully hard to make sure Iowans have this opportunity to participate in
   this first-in-the-nation caucus,a** Strawn said. a**I certainly will do
   anything in my power to keep outside agitators from ruining something that
   a lot of people have worked very hard for over a long period of time.a**

   The integrity of the Iowa caucuses would be eroded should attempts to shut
   them down be successful, said Iowa Democratic Party Chairwoman Sue
   Dvorsky.

   a**If anyone is coming and planning to make it so the participants of the
   caucus cannot have a civil and civic conversation, then of course that
   would erode the integrity of the caucuses, and it flies in the face of
   what the caucuses are,a** Dvorsky said. a**Theya**re the most basic
   long-standing tradition in this country of neighbors coming together to
   talk about political issues.a**

   She continued: a**Ia**m hoping Iowans can protect their ability to speak
   freely and respectfully with their neighbors.a**

   About Anonymous

   Anonymous emerged in 2003 from an Internet chat channel where members
   organized web incidents for their own amusement.

   By 2008, the prankster nature of Anonymous morphed into a**hacktivism,a**
   where members sabotaged websites and leaked confidential information for
   political purposes, according to law enforcement authorities.

   The group has no formal leadership and is generally considered to be more
   of a movement than an organization. As the name implies, its members
   generally dona**t identify themselves.

   The group has generally concentrated on Internet hacking. This summer, it
   claimed credit for hacking into a Booz Allen Hamilton website and leaking
   email addresses of 90,000 U.S. military personnel and hacking a Monsanto
   Co. website and releasing personal data on 2,500 employees.

   Sources: USA Today and the Associated Press

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
   www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-10 14:15:47",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/746568_re-ct-anonymous-and-occupy-divergence-in-the-iowa-caucuses-.html","peter.zeihan@stratfor.com","mailto:ct@stratfor.com","ct@stratfor.com,sean.noonan@stratfor.com",""
748498,"[CT] Police move to shut down Occupy camps
","             Protesters arrested as police clear Occupy encampments

   By Ashley Hayes, CNN
   updated 4:57 PM EST, Sun November 13, 2011

   (CNN) -- Numerous arrests took place in several Western cities as police
   moved in to clear Occupy encampments over the weekend, authorities said.

   In Portland, Oregon, unrest continued into Sunday morning as protesters
   defied a midnight Saturday deadline for the Occupy encampments to close.

   Tensions abated later Sunday as police attempted to peacefully close city
   parks, but flared at one park when protesters refused to leave. Police
   said on Twitter those refusing to leave Chapman Square were being
   arrested.

   Portland police Sgt. Pete Simpson estimated Sunday afternoon that more
   than a dozen people were arrested. Chapman Square was the last city park
   where protesters were gathered, as the others had been vacated as of
   Sunday afternoon, he said.

   Video posted on the website of CNN affiliate KGW showed officers in riot
   gear holding batons facing off with protesters. Simpson said the officers
   were in the gear as a precaution, and were joined by other assisting
   agencies. \"We needed the manpower because we used up a lot of resources
   yesterday (Saturday),\" he said.

   The operation was \"pretty methodical,\" although a few demonstrators had
   scuffled with officers, he said.

   Video showed authorities dismantling tents at the camp.

   Once the parks are cleared, temporary fencing will be erected so repairs
   can be made, Simpson said. The parks are \"pretty beat up,\" he added.

   One officer was struck in the leg earlier Sunday by a projectile thrown
   from a crowd, and was taken to a hospital, but the injuries were not
   life-threatening, authorities said. One protester was arrested in a
   separate incident overnight, Simpson said.

   Video from the scene showed masses of protesters on downtown streets. In
   the early-morning hours Sunday, police told demonstrators to leave the
   streets or face arrest. All but two of the demonstrators followed that
   order, retreating into several parks, KGW reported.

   \"A lot of people packed up and left today,\" police Lt. Robert King said.
   But hundreds of people showed up in the early morning hours -- some of
   whom have not been affiliated with the Occupy movement until now --
   apparently hoping to witness a police confrontation, King said.

   Early Sunday, Mayor Sam Adams praised police for showing professionalism
   in a \"very tense situation.\"

   Police declared the parks closed as of midnight, Simpson said, \"and
   they'll remain closed. They're not going to be open until they're
   repaired.\"

   Police and parks department employees were on the scene for the closures,
   helping people and removing debris from parks, he said. Those who needed a
   place to stay were being referred to shelters, Simpson said.

   \"We're going to be very patient,\" Adams said earlier Sunday. \"I'm
   prioritizing patience ... In order for us to do this peacefully, we need
   the time and folks on the ground need the time to do their work right.\"

   One member of Occupy Portland, however, said demonstrators were not
   planning to budge.

   \"We're talking about issues that matter to people's lives,\" Kari Koch told
   CNN. Authorities can order them to leave, but protesters have a right to
   assembly and a right to free speech, she said. \"We're not going to back
   down and leave the parks just because it's inconvenient for the mayor to
   have us here.\"

   The Occupy Portland movement, on Twitter, was calling for additional
   protesters as camps were coming down.

   What started as the Occupy Wall Street movement in New York in September
   has spread across major cities worldwide as a call to action against
   unequal distribution of wealth.

   In Philadelphia, Mayor Michael Nutter said Sunday he was increasing police
   presence near the Occupy Philly camp and asking the city's police
   commissioner to \"establish structures and strategic positioning and
   deployment of officers on a regular basis in that location.\"

   What began as a peaceful protest 39 days ago has given way to increasing
   public safety and public health concerns, Nutter told reporters.

   A woman reported she was sexually assaulted Saturday night in a tent at
   the encampment, Nutter said. In addition, there is the threat of fire near
   historic City Hall and concerns about litter, public urination, defecation
   and graffiti, he said.

   Numerous reports of thefts and assaults in the encampment have been made,
   and 15 emergency medical runs were made between October 6 and November 11,
   he said.

   In addition, a maintenance project is set to begin soon on City Hall, one
   of several, he said. A $50 million renovation is planned for Dilworth
   Plaza, where protesters have camped.

   Occupy Philly's general assembly voted Friday night not to move from the
   plaza, and members have not responded in recent weeks to expressions of
   concern from the city, which has repeatedly tried to work with the
   protesters, he said. \"Many of the people that we talked to in the
   beginning of this event and activity are now gone,\" he said.

   \"We have things we need to do,\" Nutter said. \"I understand that they have
   things on their mind as Americans and wish to express their free speech. I
   understand that, I get that, I've defended that. The things we're talking
   about, the activities that are going on, are not about free speech.
   They're public health and public safety concerns that have nothing to do
   with Wall Street and corporations.\"

   The protesters are \"purposely standing in the way of nearly 1,000 jobs for
   Philadelphians at a time of high unemployment,\" Nutter said. \"They are
   blocking Philadelphians from taking care of their families.\"

   \"Misconduct is not about free speech,\" the mayor said, \"and the behavior
   we're now seeing is running squarely into the needs of our city government
   that also represents the 99%. As mayor of the city of Philadelphia, I
   represent the 99% also.\"

   CNN affiliate WPVI reported a suspect was arrested in the alleged sexual
   assault.

   Meanwhile, in Salt Lake City, police said on Twitter 19 people were
   arrested Saturday night as authorities moved in to clear an Occupy Salt
   Lake encampment at a downtown park.

   Police had ordered protesters to leave the park after a man was found dead
   late Thursday night. The cause of death was thought to be carbon monoxide
   poisoning and a drug overdose, CNN affiliate KSTU reported.

   \"We can no longer tolerate individuals camping on our streets,\" Salt Lake
   City Police Chief Chris Burbank told reporters.

   However, \"only camping is over,\" Salt Lake City Mayor Ralph Becker's
   office said on Twitter -- protests can continue at the park. KSTU reported
   authorities said protesters would be allowed to have a 24-hour presence
   and one building, but the tents had to go.

   Since camping began at the park, Becker's office said in the statement,
   \"local law enforcement has responded to a dramatically increased amount of
   criminal activity in the park, and has made over 90 arrests in the area
   since early October.\"

   A melee involving 30 people on Wednesday night led to four arrests,
   Becker's office said, and public safety \"has become increasingly
   questionable. Additionally, the amount of human and animal waste, as well
   as drug paraphernalia, is an escalating public concern.\"

   As police moved in Saturday evening, according to video from the scene,
   protesters chanted, \"This is what a police state looks like.\"

   \"Our rights to assembly, which are embodied in the First Amendment, are
   still being violated,\" protester Jesse Fruhwirth told KSTU. \"Our
   forefathers are speaking to us, telling us that this is what assembly
   looks like. Not being able to camp here severely limits the ability of us
   to keep our coalition together.\"

   \"Many thanks to all for a peaceful resolution,\" Salt Lake City police
   tweeted late Saturday.

   In Denver, police in riot gear arrested 17 people Saturday night as they
   cleared furniture and tents from an Occupy encampment near the city's
   civic center, police spokesman Sonny Jackson told CNN. The main issue, he
   said, was that the items were blocking a right of way.

   \"People are welcome to come back and protest, but we don't want them to do
   it in a way that's not safe,\" Jackson said.

   In Oakland, California, police issued a third notice for demonstrators to
   vacate city parks on Saturday, police spokeswoman Officer Johnna Watson
   told CNN. The protesters had not complied with that order, Watson said.

   A second notice was issued Saturday morning after a fatal shooting near
   the camp, according to CNN affiliate KCBS.  A man in his early 20s was
   shot Friday. Authorities said one of the suspects has been \"a frequent
   resident at the encampment over the past several days,\" KCBS said.

   Also Saturday, 27 protesters were arrested in St. Louis after defying an
   existing park curfew, authorities said.

   Ben West
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   512-744-4300
   ext. 4340
","2011-11-13 23:03:57",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/748498_-ct-police-move-to-shut-down-occupy-camps-.html","ben.west@stratfor.com","mailto:ct@stratfor.com","ct@stratfor.com",""
758143,"Re: [CT] Anonymous 101: Introduction to the Lulz
","   So far extremely underwhelming, as expected. 

   10 points to whoever came up with this phrase \"ultra-coordinated
   motherfuckery\" 

   Unfortunately it is applied to people who are completely uncoordinated and
   couldn't fuck anything.  You can be sure I will find a better use for this
   phrase in the future.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marc Lanthemann\" <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   To: \"CT AOR\" <ct@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 8, 2011 2:48:49 PM
   Subject: [CT] Anonymous 101: Introduction to the Lulz

   pretty good cultural overview of anon but useless in terms of figuring out
   \"tactical\" details.

   On 11/8/11 1:30 PM, Melissa Taylor wrote:

 Haven't read it, but looks very interesting.  This is Part I.

 Recommend reading at link for pics.


 Anonymous 101: Introduction to the Lulz

 http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2011/11/anonymous-101/all/1

 November 8, 2011  |
 5:30 am

 (Any decent coverage of Anonymous is going to verge on some NSFW material at points. There will be questionable language and strange imagery.)

 Last week the net and the media were ablaze with the news that Anonymous might be taking on the Zeta drug cartel in Mexico, a story that has morphed into wider drug corruption story, and led to one American law enforcement official in North Carolina being named as a gang conspirator.

 Also this year, anons released documents on, or d0xed, several police organization and one prominent police vendor in retaliation for heavy-handed law enforcement reactions to occupations associated with the Occupy Wall Street movement. Theya**ve fought with child pornographers, hacked Sony repeatedly, and even tried to releasing compromising pictures to blackmail Bay Area Rapid Transit spokesman Linton Johnson into resigning. (Johnson claimed to have authored and then defended BARTa**s controversial decision to shut off mobile phone service in BART stations to pre-empt an anti-police brutality protest.)

 Theya**ve created law enforcement excitement thata**s verged on panic, given net and media pundits hyperbolic logorrhea about a**cyber terrorisma** and a**cyber freedoma**, and happily skipped between damn funny, deeply disturbing, and self-aggrandizing, depending on the mood of the hive mind at the moment.

 But what is Anonymous?

 In this in-depth series a**Anonymous: Beyond the Mask,a** wea**re going to do our best to answer that.

 NYU Professor and Anonymous researcher Biella Coleman compares Anonymous to the trickster god archetype.

 a**The trickster does exist across America, across Europe, really across the world and it is not in myth but in embodied in group and living practice: in that of the prankster, hacker, the phreaker, the troller (all of whom, have their own unique elements of course, but so does each trickster),a** she wrote in Social Text.

 The trickster isna**t the good guy or the bad guy, ita**s the character that exposes contradictions, initiates change and moves the plot forward. One minute, the loving and heroic trickster is saving civilization. A few minutes later the same trickster is cruel, kicking your ass and eating babies as a snack.

 The conversation about Anonymous points to this trickster nature, veering between praise and fear, with the media at a loss for even how to describe them.

 Wea**ve tried hacker group, notorious hacker group, hacktivists, the Internet Hate Machine, pimply-faced, basement-dwelling teenagers, an activist organization, a movement, a collective, a vigilante group, online terrorists, and any number of other fantastical and colorful terms. None of them have ever really fit. Anonymous has constantly forced us to reach for the thesaurus a** revealing that as a whole, we in the media have no idea what Anonymous really is or what it means.

 It wasna**t until I downloaded and listened to Lulz: A corruption of LOLa**s second album, Corruption, that I grasped what Anonymous really is.

 Ita**s a culture.

 It takes cultures to have albums, idioms, and iconography, and I was swimming in these and more. Anonymous is a nascent and small culture, but one with its own aesthetics and values, art and literature, social norms and ways of production, and even its own dialectic language.

 It is no wonder we in the media and the wider culture are often confused. Any study of Anonymous must be anthropological, taking into account the way people exist in different societies. The media has just been looking for an organization with a leader who could explain why Anonymous seems to do weird things. Not only that, but Anonymous seems to be built around doing weird things, and even has a term for it: the lulz.

 The lulz (a corruption of LOL, online shorthand for laugh out loud) is the most important and abstract thing to understand about Anonymous, and perhaps the internet itself. The lulz is laughing instead of screaming. Ita**s a laughter of embarrassment and separation. Ita**s schadenfreude. Ita**s not the anesthetic humor that makes days go by easier, ita**s humor that heightens contradictions. The lulz is laughter with pain in it. It forces you to consider injustice and hypocrisy, whichever side of it you are on in that moment.

 In the culture of Anonymous, the lulz is the reason for doing. Anonymous wasna**t made for easy times; the trickster sleeps when all is well.
 Inevitablity

 Cultures dona**t emerge from vacuums, and Anonymous is no exception. The birthplace of Anonymous is a website called 4chan founded in 2003, that developed an a**anything goesa** random section known as the /b/ board. 4chan itself comes from Japanese language predecessor called 2chan, founded in 2001. Before that, the lulz and hacker pranking was alive and well in old-school IRC chat rooms, EFnet, and the 1990s hacker scene.

 But if youa**re going back that far, add as influences Mondo 2000, and publications like RE/Search, and a billion shitty zines that were dead by 1996. But those all came from something, too.

 Hacker culture, and almost all of computer culture back in the day is shot through with the Discordian edge of 1960/1970s counter-culture and Robert Anton Wilson and Robert Sheaa**s Illuminatus. So from there ita**s the yippies, Andy Kaufmann, and the Situationists we need to first comprehend, or do we head back to early 20th century absurdists of Dada? Or maybe we venture all the way to that olde booke of epic trolling lulze, Tristram Shandy?

 Wea**re all the way to 1759 now.

 Perhaps this means the 1960s Discordians are right, and therea**s a Ha Ha Only Serious giggle that is cosmic in nature. That there is a part of reality, a force of physics, that is actually a Fundamental Sense of Humor. But the gravity we deal with can only be explained to an even larger amount of Dark Humor, woven into the fabric of the universe.

 The point is Anonymous, despite the false shock of contemporary news reporting, isna**t sui generis. Ita**s not a surprise, and it didna**t spring fully formed from the forehead of Ceiling Cat.

 In this place and time, with the exhaustion of political discourse, the overwhelming pressures of modern life, and rise of the internet, the stochastic network organism of Anonymous was inevitable.

 I will confess up front that I love Anonymous, but not because I think theya**re the heroes.

 Like Alan Moorea**s character V who inspired Anonymous to adopt the Guy Fawkes mask as an icon and fashion item, youa**re never quite sure if Anonymous is the hero or antihero. The trickster is attracted to change and the need for change, and thata**s where Anonymous goes. But they are not your personal army a** thata**s Rule 44 a** yes, there are rules. And when they do something it never goes quite as planned. The internet has no neat endings.

 The trickster as myth proved so compelling that the network made it real. Anonymous, the neta**s trickster, emerged like supernatural movie monster out of the misty realm of ideas and into the real world.

 a**Ultra-coordinated motherfuckerya**

 But to be historical, leta**s start with 4chan.org, a wildly popular board for sharing images and talking about them, and in particular, 4chana**s /b/ board (Really, really, NSFW). /b/ is a web forum where posts have no author names and there are no archives and ita**s explicitly about anything at all. This technological format meeting with the internet in the early 21st Century gave birth to Anonymous, and it remains the mothera**s teat from which Anonymous sucks. (Rule 22)

 Once you pull your hands away from your face and start looking, /b/ is hard to look away from.

 /b/ is the id of the internet, the collective unconsciousa**s version of the place from which the base drives arise. There is no sophistication in the slurs, sexuality, and destruction in the savage landscape of /b/ a** it is the natural state of networked man.

 In this, it has a kind of innocence and purity. Terms like a**niggera** and a**faggota** are common, but not there because of racism and bigotry a** though racism and bigotry are easily found there. Their use is there to keep you out. These words are heads on pikes warning you that further in it gets much worse, and it does.

 Nearly any human appetite is acceptable, nearly any flaw exploited, and probably photographed with a time stamp. But /b/ reminds us that the id is the seat of creative energy. Much of it, hell even most of it, is harmless or even sweet. People reach out for help on /b/, and they find encouragement and advice. The id and /b/ are the foxholes of those who feel powerless and disenfranchised.

 Thata**s what youa**ll find in /b/, the unspoken. a**/b/tardsa**, as denizens of the board are called and call themselves, create incest porn, fantasize about beating women, look for dataviz examples or coding tips. They are grown men that really want to talk about a**My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic.a** Maybe ita**s ironic, maybe ita**s not. (Ia**m told by one such brony that the show is just a lot better than youa**d expect.)

 At some moment lost in its unrecorded history, /b/ and Anonymous reached an inflection point, and the id spilled into the rest of the net in the form of a**ultra-coordinated motherfuckery,a** as one anon described it Coleman. This was the ability to use the technological tools of social coordination so quickly and well that anons working together could collectively attack targets for any perceived slight, or just for fun, without those targets ever having a chance to see it coming or defend themselves.

 These came to be called a**raids.a**

 Over time raids took many forms, eventually moving into the regular world. They could look like protests, massively coordinated pranks, distributed denial of service attacks (DDOS) or straight-up hacking attacks. D0xing, ordering unpaid pizzas, signing people up for embarrassing junk mail were all common raids. Therea**s a raid that you know for sure. Ita**s likely youa**ve even participated, and even more likely youa**ve been a victim of it; the rickroll. The rickroll began as a tool of the /b/tard/Anonymous raid, before spreading so far into the culture that the Oregon legislature and even the US Speaker of the House were rickrolling the world.

 Anonymous spat out other memes like lolcats and pedobear that spread far enough for their origins to be lost to many, but with little profound effect on the rest of the world.

 Even then Anonymous had a vigilante streak, and it could be downright mean. Theya**d d0x someone who abused a cat. In particular they went after abusers of cats, because Anonymous loves cats and pictures of cats. They blocked the pool at the online kida**s game Habbo Hotel with black, generously froa**d avatars declaring a**Pool is closed due to AIDSa** as a protest to perceived racism on the part of Habboa**s admins.

 But Anonymous was never particularly focused. Raids could be devastating or funny, but either way they came and went quickly, the neta**s own little tornado system. Anonymous was never anyonea**s personal army, and never stayed on any one topic for very long.

 It took Tom Cruise to change all that and give Anonymous a political consciousness. Specifically, Tom Cruise as cringe-worthy Scientologist.

 Birth of the a**Moralfagsa**

 A video of a disturbingly manic Cruise leaked out of Scientology in January 2008, and the notably litigious church tried to force hosting services and Gawker to take it down with legal nastygrams.

 But the video contained some truly epic lulz, and Anonymous wouldna**t let it die. The churcha**s effort to kill it off so enraged Anons they decided to destroy the church itself. By enraged, I mean a pissy kind of laughing and spitting at once. For Anonymous being mad meant wanting to troll the church very hard, but it was never to get serious, because getting serious for Anons meant losing.

 To accomplish this op (short for operation), Anons created Project Chanology, which arguably marked both the birth of political consciousness for Anonymous, and the development of its methods of taking mass action.

 Destroying the church was going to be aggro funny, as well as require a lot of dancing. Many have wondered since then, were they serious about destroying the church, or was it all a joke?

 The answer is yes, and understanding that is vital to understanding Anonymous.

 Therea**s no proof that the people that started Project Chanology had any personal beefs against the Church of Scientology beyond their secondhand annoyance at the Churcha**s litigious history and attempted suppression of speech. But probably most importantly, the Church was rampantly guilty of feeding the trolls. (Rule 14)

 But Project Chanology was the perfect way for the people who did have a history with Scientology to jump under the wing of the haughty and lulzy collective. Scientology had pursued its detractors with mean spirited ruthlessness, delving into critica**s personal lives, following them with investigators and ruining their reputations.

 Anonymous didna**t care. Call them rapists, and theya**d laughingly tell you they were child rapists. Accuse them of any crime, and they could point to worse on /b/. Anonymity and the a**words will never hurt mea** ethic that arose out of the aesthetic of extremes on 4chan made them immune to the Churcha**s arsenal.

 But some existing Anons, and the ones that came in from the community of Scientology detractors, really cared about winning this one. They wanted to be the good guys and Scientology to play the bad guys. The Church, they reasoned, hurt people, took their money, and lied to them under the guise of being caretakers and teachers.

 Anonymous claimed to do all those bad things too, but didna**t really, and would never promise to take care of you and teach you, but sometimes did anyway.

 As Coleman put it in her study, they were the perfect nemeses. But Anons caring about doing the right thing is about morality, and morality, at least straight morality, is not the lulz. Many veterans saw this as a corruption of the purity of Anonymous a** the cancer that was killing /b/.

 On February 10, 2008, the a**moralfagsa** took the whole thing to a new level. They set up meeting times and places in cities around the world, bought masks and made signs.

 Anons left the internet by the thousands and showed up in front of church locations and Scientology centers around the world, many wearing their new Guy Fawkes masks, V for Vendetta movie merchandise sold by Warner Brothers, to obscure their identities.

 They played music and walked around with signs which both accused Scientology of crimes and referenced obscure internet memes. They met each other in meat space for the first time. They partied with their own in front of aghast Scientologists in more than 90 cities.

 For the first time, the internet had shown up on the real street, en masse.

 And yes, they brought Long Cat.

 Coming soon: Part Two: Three Years of Epic Trolling the Church of Scientology, the LOIC, and OpPayback

 This post is part of a special series from Quinn Norton, who is embedding with Occupy protestors and going beyond the headlines with Anonymous for Wired.com. For an introduction to the series, read Quinna**s description of the project.


 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
   www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-08 23:55:18",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/758143_re-ct-anonymous-101-introduction-to-the-lulz-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","mailto:ct@stratfor.com","ct@stratfor.com",""
761478,"Venezuela's Government Grasps Greater Economic Control
","    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Venezuela's Government Grasps Greater Economic Control                     
                                                                              
    December 5, 2011 | 1219 GMT                                               
    Venezuela's Government Grasps Greater Economic Control                    
    JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images                                             
    A Venezuelan soldier monitors French-owned supermarket Exito in Caracas   
    after Venezuela nationalized the chain in 2010                            
    Summary                                                                   
                                                                              
    Venezuela officially unveiled the Law of Costs and Prices, legislation    
    meant to regulate the price of basic goods, on Nov. 23. The law           
    established the National Superintendency of Costs and Prices, which will  
    use a process that is not entirely clear to establish a new price         
    structure designed to address Venezuela's inflation problem. The law      
    gives Caracas more power to threaten companies with fines, seizures and   
    expropriations, and is an attempt to gain control over larger portions    
    of Venezuela's economy.                                                   
                                                                              
    Analysis                                                                  
    Related Links                                                             
      * Special Report: Venezuela's Unsustainable Economic Paradigm           
      * Venezuela: The Message Behind a Nationalization Threat                
      * Venezuela: Food Prices to Increase                                    
      * Venezuela: Government Expands Business Nationalization Powers         
      * Venezuela: Higher Food Prices, Less Stability for Chavez              
                                                                              
    The Venezuelan government Nov. 23 officially unveiled a law designed to   
    regulate the price of basic goods: the Law of Costs and Prices. The law,  
    which has been highly anticipated since its announcement in August,       
    created the National Superintendency of Costs and Prices (Sundecop),      
    which has begun implementing a new price structure designed to address    
    Venezuela's 25-30 percent annual inflation and its challenges with food   
    shortages. Sundecop will set a band of prices for each product, and       
    companies found violating price restrictions will face punishments        
    ranging from fines to expropriation. As STRATFOR has previously           
    discussed, the law is likely to worsen shortages and inflation in         
    Venezuela and to create more opportunities for corruption. It is          
    becoming clear that the law is key to the government's efforts to place   
    greater swaths of Venezuela's economy under state control.                
                                                                              
    The first phase of implementation involves a state audit of companies'    
    accounting procedures, meant to establish a maximum sale price for food,  
    hygiene and cleaning products, and is expected to take 90 days. Sundecop  
    will set the prices of these goods Dec. 15 through a process that is not  
    entirely clear. The companies will have until Jan. 15 to implement the    
    pricing. Meanwhile, the government has frozen the prices of 19 products,  
    including fruit juice, disposable diapers and soap. Starting in January,  
    Sundecop will begin auditing a wider range of products, including         
    pharmaceuticals.                                                          
                                                                              
    Sundecop's head, National Superintendent of Costs Karlin Granadillo, was  
    appointed by President Hugo Chavez and reports to him directly. Chavez    
    clearly intends to heavily influence the superintendency. On the day the  
    new law was implemented, Chavez made a statement to the press explicitly  
    singling out products from a number of foreign companies - including      
    Pepsi Cola, Heinz Foods, Nestle, Manpa, Alimentos Polar, Coca Cola,       
    Biopapel, Agrofruit, Unilever Andina, Johnson & Johnson, Knorr and Glaxo  
    SmithKline - and warning the companies against corruption.                
                                                                              
    The Law of Costs and Prices was enacted to address inflation, which the   
    Venezuelan government is blaming on so-called \"speculators\" - a loosely   
    defined term that can apply to individuals and organizations that         
    actively attempt to create shortages in order to drive up prices, as      
    well as to companies that happen to have reserves of basic goods they     
    have not yet shipped to local markets. The broad interpretation of the    
    term \"speculators\" and the government's proclivity for expropriation      
    mean that the government will most likely use the law to seize control    
    of the production and distribution of basic goods.                        
                                                                              
    In fact, immediately following the implementation of the law, the         
    Venezuelan National Guard seized 210 metric tons of powdered milk after   
    an inspection of the facilities of Italian firm Parmalat, which Caracas   
    had accused of hoarding. Parmalat contested the seizure, alleging that    
    the Venezuelan Ministry for Food and the Agricultural Supply and          
    Services Corporation had already designated the milk for distribution,    
    but Chavez rejected Parmalat's claim and threatened to expropriate the    
    firm. Parmalat backed down almost immediately, releasing a public         
    statement apologizing personally to the president, saying, \"We regret     
    the discomfort created by our statement ... and offer our sincere         
    apologies to you and the government you lead.\" Milk has become a          
    strategic good in Venezuela amid persistent and worsening shortages and   
    25-30 percent inflation on basic goods. Milk is not the only product      
    deemed strategic, however, and Parmalat is not the only company that has  
    been affected by state seizures. Chavez said the Venezuelan National      
    Guard has seized smaller but still notable amounts of rice, cornmeal,     
    vegetable oil, sugar and coffee under the auspices of Sundecop's new      
    rules.                                                                    
                                                                              
    One of the uncertainties surrounding the Law of Costs and Prices is that  
    Article 16 of the law states that Sundecop's price regulations do not     
    necessarily cancel existing price regulations. This means there will be   
    multiple price control mechanisms at work, with inconsistent reporting    
    requirements and compliance mechanisms. According to Venezuelan Central   
    Bank Director Armando Leon, there are approximately 500,000 existing      
    price regulations; Sundecop's efforts will raise that number to 1.5       
    million. Unless the price regimes are rationalized with one another,      
    these parallel systems are likely to lead to greater confusion for        
    businesses, more irregularities, and more government action against       
    private producers and retailers.                                          
                                                                              
    The law is a clear attempt by the government to secure greater control    
    over the already highly government-influenced basic-goods market. Having  
    failed in earlier attempts to control goods distribution through          
    subsidiaries of [IMG] Venezuelan state owned oil company Petroleos de     
    Venezuela, the government is using the direct threats of expropriation    
    and force to control distribution. Increased seizures of basic goods by   
    government authorities can be expected as the law is implemented, and     
    affected companies may go out of business.                                
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
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    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
","2011-12-05 13:49:47",1,"2012-04-30 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/761478_venezuela-s-government-grasps-greater-economic-control-.html","noreply@stratfor.com","mailto:global@stratfor.com","allstratfor@stratfor.com",""
791684,"BBC Monitoring Alert - IRAN
","    Iran TV releases footage of \"kidnapped\" researcher State-run Iranian TV  
    Channel two (IRTV1) in its 1600 gmt bulletin on 7 June broadcast a video 
    report on Shahram Amiri, an Iranian researcher, who had disappeared      
    about a year ago in Saudi Arabia's Medina and Iran says that in fact he  
    had been kidnapped.                                                      
                                                                             
    The news reader said: \"The Islamic Republic of Iran announced recently   
    that it has documents and proofs indicating that Shahram Amiri had been  
    kidnapped through an operation by the American intelligence forces and   
    transferred to America. A few days ago a video clip was received from    
    Shahram Amiri by the Iranian intelligence body which reveals the truth.\" 
                                                                             
    Video showed Shahram Amiri in a room with headphones on while recording  
    his message on 5 April 2010. He introduced himself and said: \"I'm        
    Shahram Amiri, an expert and researcher of Malek Ashtar University of    
    Technology. At the moment I'm in Tucsan, a city in America's Arizona. I  
    was kidnapped in a joint operation by the American intelligence, CIA's   
    terror and kidnap teams and Saudi's Istikhbarat on 13 Khordad 1388 [3    
    June 2009] from Medina. They took me to a house located somewhere that I 
    didn't know. They gave me an anaesthetic injection. When I became        
    conscious I was in a big [voice interrupted] towards America During the  
    eight months that I was kept in America, I was subject to the most       
    severe tortures and psychological pressures by the American intelligence 
    investigation groups. And the main aim behind these investigation teams  
    and the pressure imposed on me was to make me take part in an interview  
    conducted by an American media source and claim that I was! an important 
    figure in Iran's nuclear programme and I had sought asylum in America at 
    my own will. And [to say] while seeking asylum I took some very          
    important documents and a laptop with classified information on Iran's   
    military nuclear programme in it to America from my country The main aim 
    from this was to impose political pressure on the Islamic Republic of    
    Iran and in fact condemning [Iran] and proving lies that America has     
    been constantly saying against the Islamic Republic of Iran.\"            
                                                                             
    He urged human rights bodies and organizations for their support and to  
    help him to go back to Iran.                                             
                                                                             
    The news reader said the video had reached the Iran \"through special     
    means\".                                                                  
                                                                             
    Source: Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran Network 2, Tehran, in     
    Persian 1600 gmt 7 Jun 10                                                
                                                                             
    BBC Mon alert ME1 MEPol sr                                               

              (c) Copyright British Broadcasting Corporation 2010
","2010-06-07 16:51:05",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/791684_bbc-monitoring-alert-iran-.html","marketing@mon.bbc.co.uk","","translations@stratfor.com",""
817740,"BRA/BRAZIL/AMERICAS
","   Table of Contents for Brazil

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   1) NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 112 (June 24, 2010) -- TOPIC OF THE WEEK (1
   of 6)
   Yonhap headline: \"NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 112 (June 24, 2010)\"
   2) Brazil Economic Issues 23 Jun 10
   3) China, Portuguese-Speaking Countries Explore Trade Opportunities
   Xinhua: \"China, Portuguese-Speaking Countries Explore Trade Opportunities\"
   4) Brazil Crime and Narcotics Issues 23 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   5) (Special for CAFS) Brazil, Angola Ink Cooperation Agreements
   Xinhua: \"(Special for CAFS) Brazil, Angola Ink Cooperation Agreements\"
   6) PRC President Hu Jintao Arrives in Canada for State Visit, G20 Summit
   Xinhua: \"2nd LD Writethru: Chinese President Arrives in Canada for Stat e
   Visit, G20 Summit\"
   7) NO Highlights: Brazil Political Issues 23 Jun 10
   8) Brazil Political Issues 22 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   9) Paraguay Press 23 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   10) Petrobras Announces New Deepwater Oil Find
   \"Petrobras Makes New Deepwater Oil Find\" -- EFE Headline
   11) S. Korea Hosts Industrial Plant Cooperation Forum
   12) Southern Cone Crime and Narcotics Issues 22-23 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   13) Syrian Press 23 Jun 10
   The following lists selected items from the Syrian press on 23 June. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615 , (202)
   338-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735.
   14) Argentina Political and Economic Issues 23 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov.
   15) Heavy Rains, Floods Death Toll Rises to 44
   \"Death Toll in Brazil Floods Climbs to 44\" -- EFE Headline
   16) Xinhua 'Interview': There Is Room for Trade Improvement Between
   Zimbabwe And China
   Xinhua \"Interview\": \"There Is Room for Trade Improvement Between Zimbabwe
   And China\"
   17) Brazil's Amorim Says Iran 'Must Respond' to Nuclear Concerns
   \"Iran Must Respond to Nuclear Concerns: Brazil\" -- AFP headline
   18) Brazilian Foreign Minister Visits Bulgaria, Defends Nuclear Deal With
   Iran
   \"Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Luiz Nunes Amorim Visits\" -- BTA
   headline
   19) Angolan President Arrives in Brazi l on Official Visit
   Unattributed report: \"Angolan President Dos Santos Arrives in Brazil\"
   20) Kikwete Appoints New Envoys to Sweden, Canada
   Unattributed report: \"Kikwete Transfers Ambassadors\"
   21) News Roundup 22, 23 Jun
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov
   22) Taiwan-made Shirts Worn By Nine Teams In 2010 World Cup
   By Chao Yu-fan and Frances Huang
   23) Observers Blame Kim Jong Il for DPRK's 'Foolish' World Cup Tactics
   Unattributed report: \"Kim Jong-il Blamed For N.Korea's Foolish World Cup
   Tactics\"
   24) Xinhua 'Roundup': Exports, Manufacturing Boost Mexico's Economic
   Recovery
   Xinhua \"Roundup\": \"Exports, Manufacturing Boost Mexico's Economic
   Recovery\"
   25) Brazil Condemns Sanctions Imposed on Syria
   \"Brazil Condemns Sanctions Imposed on Syria\" -- NOW Lebanon Headline
   26) Brazil Economic Issues 21-22 Jun 10
   .

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   1) Back to Top
   NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 112 (June 24, 2010) -- TOPIC OF THE WEEK (1 of
   6)
   Yonhap headline: \"NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER NO. 112 (June 24, 2010)\" - Yonhap
   Thursday June 24, 2010 02:26:27 GMT
   SEOUL (Yonhap) -- Despite football fever sweeping the country, North
   Koreans were disappointed and dispirited when their football players
   failed to advance to the round of 16 in the World Cup finals in South
   Africa early this week.North Korea crashed out of the competition after a
   humiliating defeat to Portugal by 7-0 in their second Group G match on
   June 21.The setback pushed North Korea to the bottom of the standings of
   Group G, which also includes Braz il and Ivory Coast.The North Koreans
   earlier had lost to Brazil 1-2, while Portugal had fought a scoreless draw
   with Ivory Coast.North Korea now are scheduled to play Ivory Coast in
   their final group-stage match but its result wouldn't affect the team's
   elimination from the tournament, effectively ending its hopes.It is first
   time in more than four decades that North Korea has qualified for the
   World Cup, a rare point of pride for a nation struggling to feed its
   people, locked in a standoff with world powers over its nuclear
   ambitions.Pyongyang citizens were hugely disappointed after their national
   football team suffered a 7-0 pounding from Portugal at the World Cup, a
   report said on June 22.Choson Sinbo, a pro-North Korean newspaper printed
   in Japan, reported from the North Korean capital that as Pyongyang
   citizens watched the live coverage on the team's second Group G game on
   (North) Korean Central TV Broadcasting Station (KCBSTV), their emotions
   quickly went from \"an ticipation and excitement to frustration and
   disappointment.\"The North kept the game close after allowing only one goal
   in the first half, but Portugal exploded with six scores in the second
   half for the most lopsided win at this year's World Cup so far.North Korea
   has been eliminated from the tournament, regardless of its result against
   the Ivory Coast in the final group match.\"High expectations only bred huge
   disappointments,\" the report said. \"After watching the opponent's great
   skills with their own eyes, they (Pyongyang residents) were at a loss for
   words.\"Football is the most popular sport in North Korea.The game was
   billed as the rematch of the quarterfinal showdown from the 1966 World
   Cup.North Korea made its World Cup debut at the 1966 tournament in
   England, where it became the first Asian nation to advance to the top
   eight after upsetting Italy 1-0.In their attempt to reach the semifinals,
   however, the North Koreans that year lost 5-3 to Po rtugal, despite an
   initial 3-0 lead.To this day, the North Koreans are the only Asian team to
   progress beyond the first round at the World Cup finals.Choson Sinbo
   added, however, that the North's valiant showing during the 2-1 loss to
   the World Cup favorite Brazil in the opener still remained in the hearts
   of many fans and that the North Koreans believe the performance was not a
   fluke.In a separate item, the paper reported from Cape Town, South Africa,
   that the team's striker Jong Tae-se offered a tearful apology to the North
   Koreans for the loss.Jong, a forward for Kawasaki Frontale who is dubbed
   the \"People's Rooney,\" usually has been open about his team's hopes in
   South Africa.\"I felt we were virtually even in the first half, but we lost
   our concentration in the second half and committed many mistakes,\" Jong
   told the paper. \"We wanted to take revenge for the 1966 game and we're
   sorry to our supporters that we couldn't pull it off.We will win the n ext
   match against the Ivory Coast and meet the expectations.\"The normally
   loquacious Jong, who has failed to score during the World Cup, later
   slipped out of another entrance, away from the crush of reporters without
   showing up for the media event, heading straight for the team bus.Dejected
   and dispirited, the North Korean team left the stadium in Cape Town as
   fast as it could, shuffling past reporters with heads bowed.Yet North
   Korea's coverage of this World Cup has been unprecedented, with stat e TV
   airing delayed footage of many matches in full -- including that of its
   rival, South Korea.In the past only snippets of World Cup matches were
   shown, sometimes weeks later.After showing the team's 2-1 loss to Brazil
   last week a day after the match was played, state TV announced on June 21
   that the much-anticipated match against Portugal would be aired alive.It
   was the first North Korean soccer match played overseas to air live back
   home.This year, the North Koreans made a notable splash as they defeated
   Asian strongholds Iran and Saudi Arabia in the regional qualifiers.But
   that record seemed irrelevant on June 21, even after putting up a tough
   battle against Brazil last week.\"The team that took part in the 1966 World
   Cup was loved (by the people of North Korea) as it was well combined with
   personal technique and teamwork,\" North Korean coach Kim Jong-hun recalled
   in a post-match press conference.Kim, appearing somber throughout the
   conference, took blame for his team's loss, saying he failed to control
   his players' strong emotions and to implement proper countermeasures.Asked
   if countermeasures really mattered in the face of Portugal's goal rally,
   the coach responded by repeating that he failed to control the
   formation.Preparing for the Portugal showdown, the North Korean players
   had shown strong motivation to avenge their loss 44 years ago. \"Revenge,\"
   said midfielder An Yong-hak at a recent press conference. \"We will try to
   get revenge for 1966.\"But at the post-match mixed zone conference, most of
   them refused to speak. \"Not today, please,\" team captain Pak Nam-chol said
   as he whisked past reporters.An, one of the few who spoke, acknowledged
   the match result was \"unexpectedly bad.\" \"We should self-reflect for
   having collapsed in the final moments and not doing our best,\" said An,
   the midfielder for the Japanese pro club Omiya Ardija.Despite recording
   their biggest World Cup loss ever and effectively falling out of the
   competition, the North Koreans expressed their will to fight on in the
   remaining match for their compatriots back home.An said that his teammates
   will \"let go of regrets\" and go chin-up against the Ivory Coast. \"We may
   not be able to reach our goal, but with the final match remaining, we will
   prepare for it well,\" said An, adding that the team enjoys Pyongyang's
   full support.After an impressive performance against Braz il last week,
   North Korea's players feasted on noodles delivered by their top envoy in
   South Africa as they geared up to avenge the 1966 World Cup loss to
   Portugal, reports said on June 21.Choson Sinbo said North Korean
   Ambassador to South Africa An Hui-jong brought noodles to the squad and
   expressed hope that the food made from local rice and corn would shore up
   their strength against Portugal.The paper did not say when the envoy
   brought the noodles, but quoted the players as calling the taste
   \"special.\"Last week, the North's Korean Central TV Broadcasting Station
   aired the recorded footage of its side's first group match against Brazil,
   in which the team lost by one goal despite having the lowest ranking among
   the 32 World Cup finalists.According to Choson Sinbo report, the North
   Korean capital, Pyongyang, looked like \"a deserted city\" on June 16, when
   its citizens went home early to watch the Brazil match.North Korea has
   been given the rights to broadc ast all matches of the South Africa World
   Cup under an agreement with the Asia-Pacific Broadcasting Union.Disputes
   arose last week when South Korean broadcaster SBS said it had the
   exclusive World Cup broadcast rights to the Korean Peninsula.SBS later
   retracted its claim.(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English --
   Semiofficial news agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   2) Back to Top
   Brazil Economic Issues 23 Jun 10 - Brazil -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 24, 2010 04:18:43 GMT
   http://www.estadao.com.br/ http://www.estadao.com.br ) Brazil, A ngola
   Sign Privileged Partnership Agreement

   - Sao Paulo Agencia Brasil's Renata Giraldi reports that President Luiz
   Inacio Lula da Silva will sign today a privileged partnership agreement
   with Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos. According to the report,
   with the partnership, Brazil and Angola agree that the presidents of the
   two countries shall meet at least once a year and that the dialogue among
   ministers shall be expanded in all the sectors. Story notes that the idea
   is for Brazil to supply knowledge and technology in the areas of
   agriculture, health, and education, in addition to defense, and intensify
   the implementation of the Angolan public health system and higher
   education and technical programs. (Brasilia Agencia Brasil WWW-Text in
   Portuguese -- Government-owned news agency. URL: as of filing date:
   http://www.agenciabrasil.gov.br/ ) Lula Again To Supports Changes in World
   Bank, IMF

   - Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo's Tania Monteiro reports that a fter
   signing eight cooperation agreements in the areas of defense, health,
   agriculture, culture, and education between Brazil and Angola, President
   Lula stated in a speech at Itamaraty, that he will again support this
   weekend during the G-20 meeting the need for changes in the World Bank and
   IMF policies and their position regarding poor and developing countries.
   According to Lula \"the World Bank and the IMF must once and for all
   abandon all their obsolete dogmas with absurd conditions.\" Petrobras
   Postpones Capitalization Plan Until September

   - Sao Paulo Agencia Estado reports that Petrobras yesterday announced that
   it has postponed to September its capitalization plans. According to the
   report, the company was working to issue stocks in July but had to change
   its plans to wait for the conclusion of price assessment on oil reserves
   for 5 billion barrels, which will be used by the government to increase
   the company's capital. (Sao Paulo Agencia Estado in Port uguese -
   Center-right, largely pro-administration news agency) Volume of Foreign
   Investment in Fixed Income Amounts to $12 Billion This Year

   - Sao Paulo Valor reports that the financial crisis in Europe, which has
   raised the volatility of the international financial market and risk
   aversion, did not reduce the appetite of foreign investors for Brazilian
   fixed income bonds. According to the report, with the high interest rat e,
   foreign investors purchased $4.02 billion in fixed income bonds in May,
   which accounts for almost half the investments of this type in 2009 ($9.08
   billion). According to the report, the volume of foreign investments in
   fixed income in Brazil from January to May amounts to $12.07 billion. (Sao
   Paulo Valor Online in Portuguese - Website of financial daily published
   jointly by the Folha and Globo media conglomerates; URL:

   http://www.valoronline.com.br/ http://www.valoronline.com.br ) Volume of
   Imports Grew by 41.5% Until May - Sao Paulo Valo r's Sergio Lamucci
   reports that the increase in imports in 2010 is impressive: from January
   to May the volume of imports rose by 41.5% in relationship to the same
   period of 2009, while prices went up only 1.7% below the variation of
   domestic inflation. According to the report, the strength of domestic
   demand and the strong exchange rate led to an increase particularly in the
   volume of imports of intermediary goods (such as steel, plastic, and
   chemical products), which recorded an increase of 51.3% in the first five
   months of the year, and durable goods (vehicles and electro-electronic
   goods), which rose by 77.1%. Deficit of Industrial Trade Balance Expected
   To Increase

   - Sao Paulo Valor's Marta Watanabe reports that the combination of an
   unfavorable exchange rate for exports and the competitiveness in price of
   imports is expected to increase further the transformation industry's
   trade balance deficit, which has reached almost $19 billion in the first
   five months of th e year.

   The following media were scanned and no file worthy items were noted:

   (Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo Online in Portuguese - Website of generally
   critical of the government, top-circulation newspaper; URL:
   http:www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp)

   (Description of source: Sao Paulo Brasil Economico - Online version of
   economic daily; URL:

   http://www.brasileconomico.com.br/ www.brasileconomico.com.br )

   (Rio de Janeiro JB Online in Portuguese - Website of center-right
   commercial daily affiliated to the Catholic Church; URL:

   http://jbonline.terra.com.br/ http://jbonline.terra.com.br )(Rio de
   Janeiro O Globo Online in Portuguese -- Website of Rio de Janeiro's top
   circulation daily, part of the Globo media conglomerate; URL:

   http://oglobo.globo.com/ http://oglobo.globo.com )(Brasilia Correio
   Braziliense Online in Portuguese -- Website of pro-government daily
   generally differs from printed version, which is available on site to
   subscribe rs; URL:

   http://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/ http://www.correiobraziliense.com.br
   )(Porto Alegre Zero Hora (Internet version-WWW) --- Porto Alegre's leading
   daily

   http://zerohora.com.br URL:http://zerohora.com.br )

   (Brasilia Jornal de Brasilia (Internet Version-WWW) in Portuguese ---
   Brasilia daily URLhttp://www.jornaldebrasilia.com.br/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   3) Back to Top
   China, Portuguese-Speaking Countries Explore Trade Opportunities
   Xinhua: \"China, Portuguese-Speaking Countries Explore Trade Opportunities\"
   - Xinhua
   Thursday June 24, 2010 03:30:07 GMT
   LISBON, June 23 (Xinhua) -- About 500 entrepreneurs from China and
   Portuguese-speaking countries gathered here Wednesday to explore trade
   opportunities.

   The delegates are from Portugal, Brazil, Angola, Mozambique, Cape Verde,
   Guinea-Bissau, East Timor, the Chinese mainland and China's Macao Special
   Administrative Region (SAR).Portuguese Minister of Economy Vieira da Silva
   attended the meeting.Zhang Wei, vice president of the China Council for
   the Promotion of International Trade, told the meeting that Chinese
   entrepreneurs hope to deepen cooperation with Portugal and other
   Portuguese-speaking countries, especially in areas such as tourism,
   agriculture, energy and health.\"We hope that Europe can overcome this
   economic crisis soon,\" he said,adding that the situation \"has great
   influence on the Chinese exports and the yuan (the Chinese currency), as
   well as the U.S. dollar. \"Delegates said the meeting has economic
   importance, for it generates business.According to the latest official
   data, the trade volume between China and Portuguese-speaking countries
   increased 91 percent year-on-year in April, despite the global financial
   crisis.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's
   official news service for English-language audiences (New China News
   Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   4) Back to Top
   Brazil Crime and Narcotics Issues 23 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Brazil -- OSC Summary
   Thursday June 24, 2010 01:27:36 GMT
   On 23 June Lucian a Alvarez reports in Sao Paulo O Estado de Sao Paulo
   Digital that a National Drug Policy Secretariat (Senad) poll of 18,000
   Brazilian university students revealed that 60% of them consumed alcohol
   over the 30 days preceding the interview against 38.3% of a sample of the
   overall population; 25.9% had used illegal drugs, against 4.5% of the
   overall population. The drug and alcohol study group of Sao Paulo
   University's (USP) Medical School joined the Senad to prepare the study
   that interviewed students at 100 private and public universities in
   Brazil's 26 capital cities plus the Federal District. Paulina Duarte, head
   of Senad, explained that the administration intends to formulate policies
   to deal with drug use based on the study. USP psychiatrist Arthur Guerra
   de Andrade conveyed that it will be a challenge to find a way to reach out
   to the students. Knowing the downside of drug consumption does not
   discourage them from using narcotics, he affirmed. Many of the st udents
   use alcohol and other drugs simultaneously. The study showed that one in
   every four respondents drinks excessively and 3% qualify as dependents.
   The poll also revealed that 18% of the students said that they had driven
   under the influence of alcoholic beverages; 27% rode in vehicles driven by
   drunk people; and 43.4% had consumed alcohol and other drugs
   simultaneously; 26.1% of the students had consumed marijuana, hashish, or
   skunk; 13.8% had used amphetamines; 12.4% had used tranquilizers of some
   sort without a medical prescription, and 7.7% had used cocaine. (Sao Paulo
   O Estado de Sao Paulo Digital in Portuguese -- website of conservative,
   influential daily, critical of the government; URL:

   http://www.estadao.com.br/ http://www.estadao.com.br/ )

   Federal Police Prepare to Strike for Higher Pay --

   On 22 June Sao Paulo O Estado de Sao Paulo Digital reports that although
   President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva recently stated that he is not going t
   o grant any new salary increases in 2010, the Federal Police (PF) will be
   on alert as of 22 June, which means that a strike may be launched at any
   time. The PF are demanding increases that range from 18.73% to 38.42%.

   Equipment Installed in Federal Penitentiaries Infringe Attorney-Convict
   Confidentiality Rights --

   On 23 June Lucas Ferraz and Matheus Leitao report in Sao Paulo Folha de
   Sao Paulo that according to a classified Depen, the Justice Ministry's
   National Penitentiary Department, document the federal government built
   four federal penitentiaries equipped to record audio and images of
   conversations that inmates have with their attorneys, which conflicts with
   legislation in force. Sandro Avelar, a Depen director, affirmed that court
   orders are required to switch on the system. According to seven prison
   guards there is equipment available to record conversations in the rooms
   used for conjugal visits in the penitentiaries also. The documents wit h
   the information were delivered to the National Justice Council (CNJ) and
   the National Public Prosecutors' Council (CNMP). The PF are investigating
   the release of images said to have been made in the Campo Grande, Mato
   Grosso do Sul, federal penitentiary, on the YouTube website. (Sao Paulo
   Folha de Sao Paulo (Internet Version-WWW) in Portuguese --- Center-left
   daily, generally critical of the government; top-circulation newspaper.
   URL:http://www.folha.uol.com.br/)

   Brazil Listed Among Ecstasy Suppliers in UNODC Report --

   On 22 June Italo Nogueira reports in Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo that the
   UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) report lists Brazil as an ecstasy
   exporter for the first time. Although the amount is irrelevant, a ccording
   to the UNODC, ecstasy left Brazil to supply Europe. The Federal Police
   (PF) does not have details of the cases. In 2008 and 2009 authorities
   closed two ecstasy manufacturing plants; one of them, in Imarui, Santa
   Cata rina, made 2 million doses of ecstasy in slightly over one year, or
   three times the 620,000 doses seized by the PF in 2002 to 2009.

   Legislation Limits Prison Terms to 30 Year Maximum --

   On 23 June Rio de Janeiro Globo G1 website reports that in 2009, 497 of
   the 508 convicts sentenced to spend over 100 years in Brazilian prisons
   are men and 11 are women, according to the National Penitentiary
   Department's Integrated System of Penitentiary Information (Infopen).
   According to legislation currently in force, convicts spend a maximum 30
   years in prison, however. (Rio de Janeiro Globo G1 (Internet Version-WWW)
   in Portuguese --- Rio de Janeiro Globo Network website - center-right,
   generally pro-government URL:http://g1.globo.com/) Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
   City Luxury Store Proprietor Accused of Import Frauds --

   On 23 June Fausto Macedo and Bruno Tavares report in Sao Paulo O Estado de
   Sao Paulo Digital that on 22 June a Sao Paulo federal court installed
   crimina l procedures against entrepreneur Tania Bulhoes Grendene Bartelle
   and 13 other people accused of import frauds, illegal remittance abroad,
   falsehood, currency exchange fraud, as well as transnational illicit
   association. According to public prosecutors the group ran a scheme that
   imported under-invoiced luxury goods sold at two Bulhoes' stores in Sao
   Paulo City. Investigations link the scheme to a similar operation
   uncovered in July 2005 and run by Daslu, a Sao Paulo City luxury boutique.
   The Bulhoes scheme used the same importers as Daslu. Military Police Close
   DVD Replication Facility, Seize 5,000 Pirated DVDs in Sao Paulo City Slum
   --

   On 23 June Rio de Janeiro Globo G1 website reports that on 22 June at
   night a Military Police (PM) operation uncovered a clandestine disc
   replication operation installed behind a bar in the Ayrton Senna
   shantytown of Jardim Angela, a district on the south side of Sao Paulo
   City, and seized 5,000 recorded DVDs, 2,500 virgin dis cs, and six
   computers. The owner of the property claims to have rented it but the PM
   did not find the tenant. Military Police Foil Plan to Rob Bank of Brazil,
   Central Bank in Sao Paulo Hinterland --

   On 23 June Rio de Janeiro Globo G1 website reports that according to
   Military Police (PM) a gang that dug two tunnels into a Bank of Brazil
   branch in Sao Jose dos Campos, Sao Paulo, planned to rob the facility
   later this week probably on 25 June, during the Brazil-Portugal World Cup
   of soccer game. The PM arrested one person and found the tunnels on 23
   June but the Federal Police (PF) will take over the investigation in view
   of the fact that the establishment is also a Central Bank (BC) deposit.
   The PM found the opening of one tunnel linked a house to the rain water
   drain system and a second one from the system to the BB's safe. BB
   employees called in police due to noise the gang made while digging the
   tunnel. Rio de Janeiro Federal Police Investigate Office rs Suspected of
   Corruption in Rio de Janeiro --

   On 22 June Rio de Janeiro Globo G1 website reports that Federal Police
   (PF) union representatives are keeping abreast of investigations into a
   device installed in one of the rooms at the PF office in Nova Iguacu, in
   Rio de Janeiro's Baixada Fluminense region. According to the PF the device
   was legally installed to eavesdrop on two officers suspected of
   corruption. Mato Grosso do Sul Military Police Seize 363 Kg of Marijuana
   in Mato Grosso do Sul Hinterland --

   On 23 June Mato Grosso do Sul Capitan Bado reports on 22 June Military
   Police (PM) arrested Genaro Medina da Silva, 19, and seized 363 kg of
   marijuana from the luggage compartment of the Fiat Palio Weekend with
   Ituiutaba, Minas Gerais, license plates HGN-2013, in Sidrolandia, Minas
   Gerais. Silva picked up the marijuana in Ponta Pora and intended to take
   it to Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul. The PM also arrested Julio August
   Fretes, 44, employed by the State Sanitary Defense Agency, Iagro, who was
   driving a Honda Civic with Campo Grande license plates HRR-5879, escorting
   Silva. (Capitan Bado, Mato Grosso do Sul regional news website --- URL:

   http://www.capitanbado.com http://www.capitanbado.com ) Parana Federal
   Highway Police Seize 5.5 Metric Tons of Marijuana in Parana Hinterland --

   Updating the report filed on 22 June (LAP20100623020001) Mato Grosso do
   Sul Capitan Bado reports that on 21 June the Federal Highway Police (PRF)
   seized 5.5 metric tons of marijuana in Cascavel, Parana, on board a truck
   with Laranjeiras do Sul, Parana, license plates CZB-8059, loaded with
   corn. The PRF arrested driver L.J.P., 32, and passenger J.E.R.S., 48,
   driving the truck from Foz do Iguacu, Parana, to Rio de Janeiro. Federal
   Police Detain Minor, Seize 4,500 Cartons of Contraband Paraguayn
   Cigarettes in Parana Hinterland --

   On 23 June the Brasilia Justice Ministry's Federal Police Department
   website reports that on 22 June Federal Police (PF) seized 4,500 cartons
   of cigarettes in a warehouse in Guaira, Parana, along with a GM Blazer
   loaded with boxes of cigarettes. The PF detained a minor who confessed
   that he smuggled the cigarettes in from Paraguay, via river. (Brasilia
   Justice Ministry - Federal Police Department (WWW) -Text in Portuguese ---
   Justice Ministry's Federal Police Department website
   URL:http://www.dpf.gov.br/)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   5) Back to Top
   (Special for CAFS) Brazil, Angola Ink Cooperation Agreements
   Xinhua: \"(Special for CAFS) Brazil, Angola Ink Cooperation Agreements\" -
   Xinhua
   Thursday June 24, 2010 00:52:58 GMT
   BRASILIA, June 23 (Xinhua) -- Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da
   Silva and his visiting Angolan counterpart Jose Eduardo dos Santos signed
   on Wednesday a series of agreements on cooperation in technology, science
   and agriculture.

   The agreements will allow students exchanges, the creation of an
   scientific investigation network, the exchange of information on
   agriculture techniques and an understanding protocol on new credits.During
   a lunch in honor of Santos, Lula said that both countries \"are convinced
   of the need to build a more fair international order. The reform of the
   global institutions cannot ignore the growing importance of Africa and
   South America.\"Lula also stressed the importance of the multilateral
   finance institutions to help rebuild Angola, whose nearly 30-year-old
   civil war ended eight years ago.Meanwhile, Santos supported Brazil's bid
   for a permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council and stressed
   the importance of the agreements signed to strengthen ties between both
   countries.\"It is about information exchange, a strategic alliance in
   important areas, such as the transfer of technology and knowledge,\" Santos
   said.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official
   news service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   6) Back to Top
   PRC President Hu Jintao Arrives in Canada for State Visit, G20 Summit
   Xinhua: \"2nd LD Writethru: Chinese President Arrives in Canada for State
   Visit, G20 Summit\" - Xinhua
   Thursday June 24, 2010 00:26:46 GMT
   (Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news
   service for English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   7) Back to Top
   NO Highlights: Brazil Political Issues 23 Jun 10 - Brazil -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 22:47:39 GMT
   M

   8) Back to Top
   Brazil Political Issues 22 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   os cinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Brazil -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 22:32:32 GMT
   -- .The lead editorial in Sao Paulo O Estado de Sao Paulo looks at the
   acknowledgement by Foreign Minister Celso Amorim in a recent interview
   published in the London Financial Times that Brazil \"got its fingers
   burned\" in its effort to broker an agreement between the West and Iran on
   Tehran's controversial nuclear program. According to the editors, \"Brazil
   did not go to bat for Iran because the United States encouraged it to do
   so only to then turn its back. At least from the time that the visit of
   Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinezhad (to Brasilia) was being planned in
   November of last year, the administration visibly took on the intent of
   promoting itself as a mediator of the dispute surrounding the nuclear
   program suspected of being used to produce an atomic bomb. In the
   estimation of Ita maraty (Palace), the initiative would give Brazil the
   equivalent in the political arena of what 'investment grade' means for the
   country's financial transactions. Such certainty, if not hubris, led the
   government to treat as unpatriotic the warnings about the disparity
   between the (real) costs and (possible) benefits of the Lulaist
   undertaking to disarm a confrontation that in the final analysis
   intertwines itself with the chronic conflicts of the Middle East and with
   the strategic interests of the United States.\" (Sao Paulo O Estado de S.
   Paulo digital in Portuguese -- Website of conservative, influential daily,
   critical of the government; URL:

   http://www.estadao.com.br/ http://www.estadao.com.br ) (OSC is translating
   this item) Former Ambassador Evaluates 'Hurried Desire' for 'International
   Star Power'

   - Contributing a guest article to Sao Paulo O Estado de Sao Paulo, former
   Ambassador to the United States Rubens Barbosa writes that in light of
   Brazil's growing stature on the world stage, traditional regional
   frameworks such as the Mercosur trade bloc and Latin America are proving
   too small for the global interests of the country. In Barbosa's view, only
   a lack of \"political will\" stands in the way of domestic structural
   reforms that would \"complete the country's modernization process.\" At the
   same time, however, the veteran diplomat cautions that a \"hasty desire for
   international star power for domestic electoral political ends\" has placed
   that process \"in check\". Said haste, Barbosa maintains, has produced
   \"mistakes in our foreign policy that could complicate the path of mature
   (Brazilian) affirmation in the world - a path which a successful staging
   of the World Cup (in 2014) and Olympic Games (in 2016) could enhance even
   further.\" (OSC is translating this item) Former Foreign Minister
   Criticizes 'Sectarianization' of Foreign Policy

   - Writing a guest article in the 20 June edition of Sao Paulo O Estado de
   Sao Paulo, former Foreign Minister Celso Lafer offers the following view:
   \"The sectarianization of foreign policy, with its ideological slant, has
   served as a route to obfuscate and place on a secondary tier its
   dimensions as a policy of state, which taking into account the persistency
   factors in Brazil's international placement, contribute to guarantee the
   foreign predictability and reliability of the country. I notice that the
   partisan posture of those responsible for the current administration's
   foreign policy has considerably enabled the critical bruising directed at
   this policy. These individuals have, with no historical basis, formatted
   the Lula presidency as the 'Zero Milestone' for Brazilian diplomacy. Those
   who sow the wind of discrediting reap the whirlwind of dissent.\" (OSC is
   translating this item) Domestic Political Censored Text from Planning
   Ministry Website Addressed Progress of Agrarian Reform

   - Lu Ai ko Otta reports in Sao Paulo O Estado de Sao Paulo that the text
   which the Planning Ministry removed from one of its websites following
   complaints by cabinet ministers included a critical assessment of agrarian
   reform under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The document, which O
   Estado obtained, asserts that \"so far, agrarian reform in earnest has
   taken place.\" \"Despite having now gained access to land and some
   services,\" the text continues, \"the quality of life of these (resettled)
   populations remains in many cases the same as it was before they were
   resettled.\" The document also points to the lack of a \"culture of
   evaluation, willing to test the real effects of the (agrarian) policy as a
   whole.\" The critique also maintains that the government has concentrated
   credits designed to promote family agriculture in the south of the country
   at the expense of the northeast, where such activity \"is reminiscent of
   conditions of extreme poverty.\" The text cites farming census data showing
   that only 20% of small rural land parcels up to 500 hectares in size
   received technical assistance from the government while 60% owners of land
   parcels exceeding 500 hectares and no greater than 2,500 hectares received
   such aid. Presidential Campaign Serra Rejects 'Terrorism' From Rousseff
   Camp

   - Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo reports that Brazilian Social Democracy
   Party (PSDB) presidential candidate Jose Serra used a 21 June roundtable
   discussion sponsored by the newspaper to reject what he called \"terrorism\"
   by the campaign of Worker's Party (PT) presidential candidate Dilma
   Rousseff, whom he accused of spreading rumors that if elected he would
   resume the privatization process that took place during the tenure of
   former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) and would end the Family
   Bonus program - one of the Lula administration's most popular initiatives.
   Serra also called on Rousseff to publicl y apologize for her camp's
   alleged involvement in hiring retired intelligence agents to compile
   incriminating information on the PSDB in general and Serra in particular.
   In reference to comments by Rousseff that the Revenue Department was
   responsible for unsealing confidential banking and financial records
   belonging to a senior PSDB official, Serra said: \"Why would the Revenue
   Department of an administration from a party unseal and randomly leak
   somebody's records? It was not at random. I think the best thing to do
   when there has been an obvious error is to apologize.\" The PSDB
   presidential contender did not directly criticize President Lula and
   described himself as a \"candidate of advancement\" rather than of
   opposition. Addressing Brazilian efforts to broker an agreement with Iran
   on the issue of uranium enrichment, Serra said that the country had \"gone
   down a road from where there is no going back.\" He added: \"I would not
   have had that n egotiation because I do not trust a dictator. Relatively
   speaking, it is like the people who trusted Hitler in Munich.\" Serra also
   reiterated his view that Planalto Palace is not putting enough pressure on
   the government of Bolivian President Evo Morales to curb the smuggling of
   cocaine into Brazil. (Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo Online in Portuguese -
   Website of generally critical of the government, top-circulation
   newspaper; URL: http:www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp) Rousseff Rebuffs
   Experience Issue

   - Sao Paulo O Estado de Sao Paulo 's Tiago Decimo reports that Dilma
   Rousseff rebuffed questions regarding her lack of managerial experience,
   saying that \"the difference is that we know how to do things and they
   (opposition candidates) don't.\" Appearing at an event in Salvador (Bahia
   State) alongside vice-presidential candidate and former Chamber of
   Deputies President Michel Temer (Brazilian Democratic Movement Party, PMDB
   - Sao Paulo), Rousseff alluded to the S erra campaign's slogan \"Brazil Can
   Do More,\" saying that \"we are different from those who come around
   promising to do more; because they didn't and we did.\" She described
   herself as the \"right and left hands\" of President Lula and defended her
   credentials to seek the presidency, asserting that \"there was no
   administration project, at the end of the first (Lula) term and in the
   second term, that I did not coordinate.\" \"Some projects I not only
   coordinated but drew up, like the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC), My
   House My Life, and Electricity for All,\" she said. Rousseff said the
   opposition \"is getting managerial experience mixed up with electoral
   experience; not having electoral experience means a new way of making
   policy, but I even regret not having electoral experience.\" The PT
   presidential hopeful also pledged to capitalize on what she called \"a
   unique opportunity to stop being an emerging country and bec ome a
   developed one.\" Flanked by vice-presidential running mate Michel Temer (l)
   and PMDB gubernatorial candidate Geddel Vieira Lima, Rousseff greets
   supporters in Salvador (Bahia State)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   9) Back to Top
   Paraguay Press 23 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Paraguay -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 19:32:39 GMT
   -- Asuncion ABC Color reports that this morning the Senate elected Oscar
   Gonzalez Daher of the Colorado Party (National Republican Association-ANR)
   as the new Senate preside nt. (Asuncion ABC Color Digital in Spanish --
   Website of leading daily, highly critical of ANR-Colorado Party, owned by
   entrepreneur Aldo Zuccolillo; URL:http://www.abc.com.py) President Lugo
   shakes hand with officers during military ceremony (Source: ABC Color)
   Military Chief Says Armed Forces 'Alert' To Combat Armed Group

   -- ABC Color reports that Military Forces Commander General Juan Oscar
   Velazquez yesterday said that the Armed Forces are \"alert\" to combat the
   Paraguayan People's Army, EPP.He explained that the military forces are
   always prepared to fulfill any mission in the country.Asked what he thinks
   of the EPP statement calling on the military to revolt against the legally
   established authorities, Velazquez said that his mission is established in
   the Constitution.He made this comment in the facilities of the Military
   Justice Service Directorate (DSJM) where a ceremony headed by President
   Fernando Lugo was held to celebrate the DSJM 123 rd anniversa ry. Analyst
   Says EPP Creates Cells To Disorient Security Forces

   -- Asuncion Ultima Hora carries an article by political analyst Justiniano
   Riveros saying that the EPP is divided in three cells to create
   disorientation and to avoid being captured by the security forces.Asuncion
   La Nacion reports that political and military analyst Horacio Galeano
   Perrone predicts that the EPP will carry out kidnappings in urban areas.
   (Asuncion Ultima Hora.com in Spanish -- Website of leading daily; Majority
   shareholder business and media entrepreneur A.J.Vierci; URL:
   http://www.ultimahora.com/) (OSC will provide a full translation of this
   item) Brazilian Security Forces on Alert To Prevent EPP Operations

   -- ABC Color carries an article by political analyst Roque Gonzalez Vera
   stating that Brazilian Police and Army units stationed near the Apa River
   across Concepcion Department, Paraguay, are in state of alert to prevent
   EPP members from using Brazilian territory to take refuge or as transit
   for their operations.According to intelligence reports, the EPP column
   that escaped from Kurusu de Hierro is now divided in two groups, the
   article says. Government Investigates House Construction by EPP

   -- Ultima Hora reports that security organizations are investigating house
   constructions for \"social\" purpose by the EPP in Kurusu de Hierro and
   Tacuati with money collected from kidnappings, Interior Minister Rafael
   Filizzola admitted yesterday.He said that the sale of construction
   material in those regions has increased considerably and therefore, the
   government cannot rule out that the money came from the ransom paid for
   the release of kidnapped victims. Ministry Announces Establishment of
   Diplomatic Relations With Uganda

   -- Ultima Hora reports that the Foreign Ministry yesterday announced that
   Paraguay on 18 June established diplomatic relations with Uganda in New
   York.Jose Antonio Dos Santos, the Paraguayan representative at the Uni ted
   Nations, and his Ugandan counterpart Ruhakana Rugunda signed the
   documents. 'Landless Peasants' Threaten Land Invasions

   -- ABC Color carries a report datelined General Resquin, San Pedro
   Department, stating that the Departmental Coordinating Board for Agrarian
   Reform and Sovereignty yesterday announced that thousands of alleged
   \"landless peasants\" are ready to invade the land of 22,000 hectares owned
   by (Brazilian agricultural businessman) Ulisses Rodrigues Teixeira and the
   ranch Carla Maria of 15,000 hectares owned by Jose Bogarin.Peasant leader
   Jose Rodriguez, who belongs to the Free Fatherland Party (PPL), said that
   many peasant organizations are withdrawing their support for President
   Fernando Lugo because he has not fulfilled his promises. No Selection

   : Ciudad del Este Vanguardia

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   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries re garding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   10) Back to Top
   Petrobras Announces New Deepwater Oil Find
   \"Petrobras Makes New Deepwater Oil Find\" -- EFE Headline - EFE
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 19:16:05 GMT
   The oil was found in the Albacora Leste concession, which Petrobras
   jointly operates with Spanish energy firm Repsol, the Brazilian company
   said.

   The crude lies some 130 kilometers (80 miles) off the coast of Rio de
   Janeiro state at a depth of 4,536 meters (14,870 feet).

   Petrobras' preliminary estimates indicate the presence of good-quality,
   light oil, although more drilling is needed to determine the size of the
   reserves and their productivity, as well as the viability of extracting
   the crude without making additional investment.

   On 4 June, Petrobras announced the discovery of medium oil with an
   American Petroleum Institute gravity of 29 degrees, also in the Campos
   Basin, which accounts for 90 percent of Brazilian crude production.

   The firm said then that that discovery may hold 380 million barrels of
   recoverable oil and natural gas.

   Petrobras, Brazil's largest firm and one of the world's fastest-growing
   oil companies, produces an average of 2.5 million barrels of oil
   equivalent per day in Brazil and its fields abroad.

   The company has a presence in more than two-dozen countries in the
   Americas, Africa, Asia, Europe and Oceania.

   Shares of Petrobras, a global leader in deepwater oil exploration and
   production, trade on the Sao Paulo, New York, Madrid and Buenos Aires
   stock exchanges, but the Brazilian government retains control through a
   golden share.

   (Description of Source: Madrid EFE in English -- independent Spanish press
   agency)

   Material in the World News Conn ection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   11) Back to Top
   S. Korea Hosts Industrial Plant Cooperation Forum - Yonhap
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 21:12:15 GMT
   S Korea-industrial plant

   S. Korea hosts industrial plant cooperation forumSEOUL, June 24 (Yonhap)
   -- South Korea were to host an industrial plant cooperation forum in Seoul
   Thursday to help local companies secure fresh contracts in Africa and
   Latin American countries, the government said.The Ministry of Knowledge
   Economy said the one-day event is expected to be represented by 350
   corporate leaders, government officials and international organizations
   from countries such as Paraguay, Ghana, Cambodia and Brazil.It said
   prospective contracts worth up to US$7.0 billion won are to be discussed
   in talks between countries wanting to place orders and local industrial
   plant manufacturers, in oil and gas, electric power and marine
   construction areas.\"The gathering aims to help South Korean companies
   diversify away from the Middle East which accounted for 60 percent of all
   deals in 2009,\" a ministry official said. Over dependence in the Middle
   East could become a liability if there is a sudden drop in international
   energy prices or if unexpected geopolitical risks arise in the regionsIn
   2009, South Korea won overseas orders worth $46.3 billion, making the
   industry a key player for economic growth. The total secured marks a sharp
   increase from $25.4 billion tallied for 2006 and just $8.4 billion in
   2004.South Korea has the engineering knowhow, expertise and price
   competitiveness to win foreign deals and has won high marks for meeting
   construction and deli very deadlines.In addition to corporate talks, the
   Korea Plant Industries Association has arranged a forum, which will
   include an international plant export financial seminar attended by
   executives from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development,
   Asian Development Bank and BNP Paribas.The meeting will allow the
   participants to exchange views on how to finance large projects and to
   make use of funds from oil-rich Middle East countries for large
   projects.(Description of Source: Seoul Yonhap in English -- Semiofficial
   news agency of the ROK; URL: http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   12) Back to Top
   Southern Cone Crime and Narcotics Issues 22 -23 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Southern Cone -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 20:41:22 GMT
   -- Buenos Aires Clarin reports on 21 June that Brazilian customs officials
   seized more than 1 metric ton of cocaine that was being transported by
   ship from Argentina to Spain. The Brazilian customs officials conducted
   the operation in the port of Santos (Brazil) and the authorities are
   investigating whether the cocaine belongs to a drug-trafficking ring that
   exports cocaine from Buenos Aires in fruit boxes. The cocaine was in two
   containers camouflaged with apples. Jose Antonio Mendez, chief inspector
   of the Santos Federal Revenue Secretariat, told the EFE news agency that
   the operation was conducted after the Argentine Customs Directorate issued
   an alert notice. The authorities are now seeking to confirm wheth er the
   ship carrying the cocaine was one of the ships that had left from Buenos
   Aires used by an organization that exported drugs in fruit boxes. This
   drug-trafficking ring was detected through Operation White Apple, which
   led to the seizure of 1,625 kg of cocaine in the port of Buenos Aires.
   Following this operation, the Argentine courts determined that two ships
   had already left and that one of them was about to arrive in Spain and the
   other one was the one detected by the Brazilian law enforcement
   authorities. Virginia Messi writes in Buenos Aires Clarin on 19 June that
   the company that shipped the apples is Frutol Inc., which is located in
   Allen (Rio Negro Province). This company has sent 17 shipments abroad over
   the past year to different companies. The main destination of these
   shipments was Spain. A businessman from Rio Negro Province is the only
   person arrested in connection with this case. The man was in charge of the
   packing process of the apples. The apple shipme nt seized during Operation
   White Apple had left Rio Negro Province on 4 June and arrived in Buenos
   Aires on 8 June, but the container with the apples was opened on 16 June.
   (Buenos Aires Clarin.com in Spanish -- Online version of
   highest-circulation, tabloid-format daily owned by the Clarin media group;
   generally critical of government; URL: http://www.clarin.com ) Article in
   Portuguese carrying photograph of the cocaine camouflaged with apples
   (clarin.com, 21 June)

   Cocaine Seized in Port of Santos Amounts to 3,349 Kg

   -- Buenos Aires Clarin reports on 23 June that the Brazilian law
   enforcement authorities have already seized 3,349 kg of cocaine in the
   port of Santos (Brazil) after being alerted by the Argentine courts about
   the existence of a cocaine shipment in two containers on board a ship. The
   seized cocaine was valued at 150 million euros. Agent from Brazil's
   Federal Revenue Secretariat inspects seized cocaine (clarin.com, 23 June)

   GN Seizes 566 K g of Marijuana in Misiones Province

   -- The official website of the National Border Guard (GN) of Argentina on
   23 June carries a report datelined Buenos Aires stating that GN personnel
   seized 566 kg of marijuana hidden in the ruins of the abandoned facilities
   of a place used to dry yerba mate in Colonia Santa Rosa in Misiones
   Province on 22 June. The GN personnel found 18 burlap bags containing 445
   marijuana bricks inside an oven. The seized marijuana is worth more than 2
   million pesos ($509,000). (National Border Guard of the Argentine Nation
   -- Official website of the Argentine National Border Guard; URL:
   http://www.gendarmeria.gov.ar ) Oven where the marijuana was found
   (gendarmeria.gov.ar, 23 June)

   CHILE Counternarcotics Agents Seize 26 Kg of Cocaine Base Paste in Biobio
   Region

   --Santiago El Mercurio on 22 June carries a report by Giovanni Calabrano
   datelined Concepcion stating that the Antinarcotics Brigade of the
   Investigations Police (PDI) arreste d two individuals carrying two
   suitcases containing 26 kg of cocaine base paste, which equal to
   approximately 300,000 doses, on 20 June. The seized cocaine base paste was
   valued at 300 million pesos ($566,000). This is the largest cocaine base
   paste shipment seized in the Biobio Region in 2010. The seized drug was
   going to be distributed in Greater Concepcion and in neighboring
   provinces. The PDI agents conducted this operation following an 18-month
   investigation along with personnel from the Talcahuano Attorney General's
   Office, which detected that the cocaine base paste was being transported
   from Calama in northern Chile. The PDI agents intercepted the detainees at
   the Agua Amarilla toll station at the intersection with the Itata Highway.
   The detainees were identified as Jorge Toro Saldana, 22, and Julio
   Martinez Bravo, 30. (Santiago El Mercurio Online in Spanish -- Website of
   privately owned, top-circulation, conservative daily, belonging to the
   Edwards family mediagroup ; URL: http://www.elmercurio.cl ) The seized
   cocaine base paste (tercera.com, 21 June)

   Civilian Police Seize More Than 2.2 Kg of Cocaine at Los Libertardores
   Border Crossing

   -- Andres Orrego writes in Santiago La Tercera on 22 June that personnel
   from the Civilian Police arrested an Argentine woman whose initials are
   G.A.V.G., 18, near Los Libertadores border crossing for trying to smuggle
   2.216 kg of high-purity cocaine into Chile. The seized cocaine was valued
   at 44 million pesos ($83,000). The woman was traveling in a bus coming
   from the city of Mendoza (Argentina). The woman is a member of an
   international drug-trafficking ring operating in Mendoza and sending drugs
   to Santiago. (Santiago La Tercera Online in Spanish -- Website of
   conservative daily. Belongs to the Copesa Group of Opus Dei member Alvaro
   Saieh. Requires subscription; URL: http://www.tercera.com ) Investigations
   Police Seize More Than 200 Kg of Marijuana in Temuco

   -- Santiago La Terc era reports on 22 June that PDI personnel conducted an
   eight-month investigation that led to the seizure of more than 200 kg of
   marijuana and the arrest of six people who were members of an
   international drug-trafficking ring in the city of Temuco. The PDI
   determined that the drug-trafficking ring smuggled the cocaine into Chile
   through border crossings with Argentina and then distributed it in
   Santiago, Temuco, and other cities in southern Chile. The ringleader had
   escaped to Argentina from the Osorno Prison after he was sentenced to life
   imprisonment for parricide. Investigations Police Seize More Than 3 Kg of
   Drugs

   -- Santiago La Tercera reports on 23 June that personnel from the PDI
   Criminal Investigations Brigade arrested a micro-drug trafficke r in his
   home in Diego Portales neighborhood in Puente Alto and seized more than 3
   kg of cocaine and marijuana after people residing in the area reported the
   man's activities. The seized drugs were valued at 6 million peso s
   ($11,280). PARAGUAY Police Destroy One-Hectare Marijuana Plantation in
   Caazapa Department

   -- Asuncion ABC Color on 21 June carries a report by correspondent Antonio
   Caballero datelined Caazapa (Caazapa Department) stating that policemen
   found a one-hectare marijuana plantation at a ranch in Yuti district on 20
   June. Antinarcotics Prosecutor Miguel A. Cardenas ordered destroying the
   marijuana plantation. According to police information, the ranch is owned
   by Guillermo Sheffer, a rancher from the city of Yegros. Sheffer is
   believed to be marijuana middleman who grows marijuana in his property.
   (Asuncion ABC Color Digital in Spanish -- Website of leading daily, highly
   critical of ANR-Colorado Party, owned by entrepreneur Aldo Zuccolillo;
   URL: http://www.abc.com.py) Police Seize 211 Kg of Marijuana in Itapua
   Department

   -- Asuncion Ultima Hora reports on 22 June that Police personnel seized
   211 kg of pressed marijuana at a vehicle checkpoint at the 48-km marker of
   Highway No. 6 in Bella Vista (Itapua Department). The marijuana was being
   transported in a pickup truck, whose driver escaped abandoning the vehicle
   and the marijuana. (Asuncion Ultima Hora.com in Spanish -- Website of
   leading daily; Majority shareholder business and media entrepreneur
   A.J.Vierci; URL: http://www.ultimahora.com/ ) Senad Agents Seize 748 Kg of
   Marijuana in Itapua Department

   -- Asuncion ABC Color reports on 22 June that special agents from the
   National Antinarcotics Secretariat (Senad) seized more than 748 kg of
   pressed marijuana in San Juan del Parana (Itapua Department) on 21 June.
   The seized marijuana had to be picked up at an abandoned house and then
   transported to Argentina for its redistribution. The Senad conducted the
   operation in an inhabited property in Paraiso neighborhood in San Juan del
   Parana, south of Encarnacion. No arrests were made in connection with this
   case. Another group of drug traffickers was apparently in charge of
   picking up the marijuana and cross the Parana River with it over to
   Argentina. Part of the seized marijuana was going to be sold in the
   Argentine border area. Customs Officials Seize Smuggled Goods Worth
   $192,000 -- Asuncion Ultima Hora reports on 22 June that the National
   Customs Directorate seized smuggled goods worth a total 865.9 million
   guaranis ($192,400) including 901 Nokia-, Motorola-, and LG-brand cell
   phones, as well as Brazilian sugar bags, powder soap, cooking oil, and
   medicines in Alto Parana Department. Customs officials also seized a
   Toyota Dyna in Central Department and seized sugar, cooking oil, caramel
   spread, powder soap, and powdered milk worth 83 million guaranis
   ($18,500). Senad Personnel Seize 330 Kg of Marijuana in Itapua Department

   -- Asuncion Ultima Hora on 23 June reports that the Senad announced on 23
   June that Senad agents arrested four drug traffickers and seized 330 kg of
   marijuana in a property in the locality of Edelira Cuatro Bocas in Itapua
   Dep artment. The marijuana was in 14 bags. The detainees were identified
   as Rufino Benitez Quintana, 48; W.F., 17; Ramon Gomez, 46; and Pedro
   Rojas, 44.The final destination of the marijuana was Argentina and it is
   valued at more than $300,000 in Argentina. URUGUAY

   No selection TRIBORDER AREA

   No selection

   The following media were scanned and no file-worthy items were found:
   Montevideo El Observador, Montevideo El Pais, and Montevideo La Republica.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   13) Back to Top
   Syrian Press 23 Jun 10
   The following lists selected items from the Syrian press on 23 June. To
   request additional processing, please call OSC at (800) 205-8615, (202) 33
   8-6735; or fax (703) 613-5735. - Syria -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 18:44:37 GMT
   http://thawra.alwehda.gov.sy/ http://thawra.alwehda.gov.sy)

   In a 275-word editorial in Tishrin entitled \"Iraq As We See it and the
   Arab Sees it,\" Chief Editor Samirah al-Masalimah says: \"Iraq has
   constituted a historical, nationalistic, and regional depth for Syria
   since the dawn of history, because of all the common factors, both
   physical or moral, and by virtue of all the facts of past decades, and
   perhaps centuries, that have shown that Syria and Iraq have formed toward
   each other that emotion that no one can ignore. No one can break the ties
   or abolish the relationship from conscience or memory alike.\" She adds:
   \"Everyone in the region, and beyond, is aware of the challenges that Syria
   faced, from the moment that brute force was used against the people of
   Iraq, its history, and its state at the hands of American occupation, and
   since the advanced Mosad Brigades started interfering with its national
   unity, social fabric, and even its state structure, and existence; Syria
   stood in word and deed against all this interference, the occupation, and
   the shamelessness of others on the soil of Iraq.\"Al-Masalimah concludes:
   \"Therefore, and not in terms of any other concept, that (Syria's)
   eagerness for Iraq's unity, security, stability, and its future must be
   understood. And here too, everyone should be aware of the backgrounds of
   our political discourse about Iraq, and Syria's insistence on the
   establishment of a national government in Iraq that is all-inclusive, does
   not exclude anyone, deepens national reconciliation, and can be an entry
   to the return of security and stability to Iraq and the region in
   general.\" (Description of source: Damascus Tishrin Online in Arabic --
   Website of the government-owned newspaper; URL:
   < br>http://tishreen.info/ http://tishreen.info)

   In a 600-word article in Al-Ba'th entitled \"The World Cup and the Arab
   Street,\" Ziyad Amin al-Qadi says that \"the World Cup grabs the interest of
   popular classes across the globe, because it carries with it factors of
   excitement, while the various audio-visual, print, and electronic media
   play an important role in highlighting the event.\" \"However,\" the writer
   adds, \"this World Cup was preceded by an event that shook the feelings of
   humanity in the world, and was represented by the Zionist crime of naval
   piracy against the Freedom Flotilla.\"He goes on to say that the \"Arab
   popular mood interacted with this major sporting event, but without
   ignoring the political context of its national issues,\" indicating that,
   despite the spread of the various flags of participating countries on Arab
   streets, \"it is striking that in the midst of all the flags flown on
   balconies, and roofs of houses and cars, to note the absence of the
   American flag, although the United States's football performance has
   evolved recently.\" He explains that by the fact that \"the Arab street has
   not forgotten the aggressive practices of the United States against our
   people, and our nation, by supporting the Zionist regime's crimes\" in
   Palestine, Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, Sudan, and Somalia, in addition to \"the
   issuance of the Syria Accountability Act.\" He concludes: \"The mood of the
   Arab street confirmed that enjoying an exciting World Cup will not make
   the Arabs forget their causes, and demonstrated that a beautiful football
   display by Western teams will not be able to beautify the positions of
   those countries.\" (Description of source: Damascus Al-Ba'th Online in
   Arabic -- Website of the newspaper of the ruling Ba'th Party; URL:

   http://www.albaath.news.sy/ http://www.albaath.news.sy)

   Al-Watan publishes a 2,350-word interview with the Brazilian ambassador in
   Syria, Edgar Antonio Cassiano, conducted by Hassan Hashim, in which
   Cassiano praises the forthcoming visit of President Bashar al-Asad to
   Brazil, stressing that \"the meeting between al-Asad and Brazilian
   President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will be warmly welcomed.\" Cassiano
   adds that \"this first visit of President al-Asad to Brazil is historic,
   and important on various levels, and is similar in meaning and objectives
   to the first visit paid by President da Silva to Syria in 2003, just after
   the occupation of Iraq.\" He also notes that \"the historic feature of the
   visit stems from the similarity of circumstances experienced by the two
   countries.\"The ambassador indicates that \"the conviction of the world
   public opinion is that Syria is a solution to many of the problems of the
   region.\" He notes that President al-Asad's visit \"will open the door to
   the possibility of increasing the volume of trade exchange between the two
   countries, with the need for this to be preceded by sending economic and
   trade delegations from Syria to Brazil, and vice versa.\" (Description of
   source: Damascus Al-Watan Online in Arabic -- Website of the independent
   daily; URL:

   http://www.alwatan.sy/ http://www.alwatan.sy)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   14) Back to Top
   Argentina Political and Economic Issues 23 Jun 10
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov. - Argentina - OSC Summary
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 18:02:10 GMT
   - Buenos Aires Clarin reports th at a plenary meeting of the Lower House
   Energy, Maritime Interests, and Foreign Relations Committees yesterday
   \"unanimously\" passed a bill that \"prohibits all persons physical or
   juridical, national or foreign,\" from developing hydrocarbon activities on
   the Argentine continental shelf \"without authorization.\" It also
   contemplates \"tough sanctions\" for companies that break the law. It goes
   to the floor today and could be approved if there is quorum to session.
   (OSC translating as LAP20100623021002) National Timerman Denies 'Parallel
   Diplomacy'

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Mariano Obarrio reports that with the evident
   desire to close the cabinet crisis unleashed by Jorge Taiana's surprising
   resignation as soon as possible, Cristina Kirchner took the oath of office
   yesterday from the new foreign minister, Hector Timerman, who made his
   contribution to removing the most conflictive issues from center stage and
   denied the existence of p arallel diplomacy with Venezuela. Meanwhile,
   Timerman traveled to New York last night for the UN Decolonization
   Committee meeting tomorrow, after which he will travel to Canada to
   participate with the president in the G-20 meeting. (Buenos Aires
   lanacion.com in Spanish -- Website of conservative, second
   highest-circulation daily; generally critical of government; URL:

   http://www.lanacion.com.ar/ http://www.lanacion.com.ar ) (OSC translating
   as LAP20100623021001) Ceremony Reportedly Lasts 'Four Minutes'

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Mariana Veron reports, in an article headlined
   \"A ceremony of four minutes, without the joy or Kirchnerite euphoria,\"
   that for the first time in the seven years of the Kirchnerite
   administration the swearing-in of a new minister was \"not a fiesta\"
   yesterday and, unlike any of the previous cabinet changes, there was a
   \"climate of apathy and dejection\" in the White Room, the least crowded in
   recent years: onl y about 80 persons. Its capacity is for over 200. The
   ruling-party activists, who always add \"color\" to the tensest moments, did
   not participate and the tension was \"palpable.\" Meanwhile, the time that
   former President Nestor Kirchner dedicated to the few Mothers and
   Grandmothers of Plaza de Mayo, who came to accompany Timerman, contrasted
   with the \"five seconds\" that he took to greet his former foreign minister
   and although sources close to them denied that there was tension between
   them, they made no effort to display distension or warmth in front of the
   cameras. The president was \"a little more cordial, but no less cutting\"
   and after taking the oath from Timerman she went directly to Taiana,
   kissed him, and said \"thanks for everything.\" \"Thank you,\" stammered
   Taiana, whose smile was stiff. He was one of the first to leave,
   accompanied arm-in-arm by Defense Minister Nilda Garre and greeted by the
   \"entire\" ; cabinet, which was bidding him farewell amid the \"resounding
   resignation\" with which he \"surprised\" the officials last Friday. Clarin's
   Natasha Niebieskikwiat adds that the \"coldness\" toward Taiana in Casa
   Rosada yesterday and the fact that Kirchner did \"not\" greet him made
   \"some\" officials wonder if she or her husband decided the \"reprimand\" of
   Taiana last Friday. Meanwhile, Timerman has confirmed most of Taiana's
   officials and appointed Antonio Trombetta as his cabinet chief. Congress
   To Receive Former Ambassador to Venezuela With Sights on Kirchner, De Vido

   - Buenos Aires Clarin's Martin Bravo reports that Eduardo Sadous will be
   in the Lower House Foreign Relations Committee today. The session will be
   \"secret\" and the opposition considers that sufficient guarantee for
   Sadous, a career diplomat, to express everything that he knows without
   violating the confidentiality that Timerman demanded from him. Meanwhile,
   several opposition deputies stated yesterday that they would focus their
   questions on the \"parallel embassy\" in Caracas, in which Kirchner and
   Planning Minister Julio De Vido were reportedly involved. (Buenos Aires
   Clarin.com in Spanish -- Online version of highest-circulation,
   tabloid-format daily owned by the Clarin media group; generally critical
   of government; URL:

   http://www.clarin.com/ http://www.clarin.com ) Government Doubles Pressure
   on Sadous

   - Buenos Aires Clarin adds in a sidebar that Cabinet Chief Anibal
   Fernandez said yesterday that \"neither the diplomat nor or any other
   official can break the secret about certain types of information that we
   are obliged by law to maintain in said state.\" Buenos Aires Governor Urges
   Officials To Enter Digital Era

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Pablo Morosi reports from La Plata that with
   his sights on next year's presidential elections, Daniel Scioli announced
   on his Twitter page yesterday, after a cabinet meeting, that he had
   instructed his officials to analyze the phenomenon of the social networks
   and to design the most effective way to utilize them \"massively\" in the
   different government areas. Former Opposition Allies Not To Meet

   - Buenos Aires La Nacion's Jaime Rosemberg reports that one year since
   their 2009 midterm election victory, Deputy Francisco de Narvaez (Federal
   Peronism-Buenos Aires) and City Mayor Mauricio Macri have rejected an
   invitation from Deputy Felipe Sola (Federal Peronism-Buenos Aires) to join
   him in San Nicolas next Monday for the \"virtual\" launching of his
   presidential candidacy and criticized his \"having decided alone.\" Economic
   President Launches Credit Line for Farming Sector

   - Buenos Aires Clarin reports in a photo of a ceremony in Casa Rosada
   yesterday, that Cristina Kirchner presented a credit line for small- and
   medium-sized farmers and rural contractors to purchase n ational farming
   machinery. El Cronista adds that the credit is for 270 million pesos
   ($68.7 million) at 9% annually. This is the government's \"third nod to
   this sector in less than 10 days.\" La Nacion adds that fights have broken
   out in the Argentine Agrarian Federation (FAA), and impacted on the
   Liaison Board, over the presence of one of its leaders in one of the
   ceremonies in which the president launched subsidies for farmers. (Buenos
   Aires Clarin.com in Spanish -- Online version of highest-circulation,
   tabloid-format daily owned by the Clarin media group; generally critical
   of government; URL:

   http://www.clarin.com/ http://www.clarin.com )

   President addressing farmers (Clarin)

   Government To Reform Farm Employment Law

   - Buenos Aires El Cronista adds that before yesterday's ceremony in Casa
   Rosada, Cristina Kirchner signed a bill to modify the Rural Worker Law and
   sent it to Congress. It aims at eliminating the so-called \"sun-to-s un\"
   working day on farms and to implement working days of eight hours, 44
   hours weekly, until 1300 on Saturday, and Sunday off. Labor Minister
   Carlos Tomada explained that the initiative intended to \"cover an old debt
   that we had with the rural workers,\" 1.3 million persons, \"replace a
   dictatorship law, and reverse the levels of rural workers' lack of
   protection and precarious employment.\" Trucker Boss 'Lowered Pretensions,'
   Signed for 25% Wage Hike

   - Buenos Aires Clarin's Carlos Galvan reports that General Workers Union
   (CGT) leader Hugo Moyano \"lowered his pretensions\" yesterday and signed an
   agreement for the Truckers Union for a wage increase of 25%, in three
   stages, which \"can appear modest\" if compared to what other unions got,
   but is in \"total\" alignment with what Casa Rosada considers an
   \"appropriate increase.\" Tomada stressed \"the efforts made by the parties
   to reach this agreement.\" However, the negotiation does not appear to have
   been \"too complicated.\" Furthermore it was resolved in \"less than two
   weeks.\" Meanwhile, faithful to his custom, Moyano negotiated \"personally\"
   with the sector businessmen. Not even his son Pablo participated. He is at
   the World Cup in South Africa and his brother Facundo was reportedly \"on
   safari around there.\"

   Moyano and Tomada (Clarin)

   Trade Surplus Falls 25% in May

   - Buenos Aires El Cronista's Natalia Donato reports that in five months
   the trade surplus fell 27% on 2009 to $6.157 billion: the National
   Institute of Statistics and Census (Indec) announced yesterday that
   exports totaled $6.479 billion in May, 25% up year-on-year, and imports
   $4.574 billion, 72% up year-on-year: a surplus of $1.905 billion: 25.1%
   down on the $2.542 billion posted in May 2009. This fall could affect
   dollar entry in the second half of the year and put greater pressure on
   the exchange market, controlled thus far by the Central Bank (BCRA),
   despite sustained capital flight, which averages about $1 billion monthly.
   Cristina Kirchner seemed to reflect this concern yesterday when she said
   that it was of \"key\" importance to \"continue substituting imports.\"
   (Buenos Aires El Cronista.com in Spanish -- Website of independent
   newspaper owned by Spain's Recoletos Group, focusing on financial
   information; URL:

   http://www.cronista.com/ http://www.cronista.com )

   \"Collapse of the surplus\" - Argentine trade balance, dollar

   million/billions, 2010 to end May (El Cronista)

   Central Bank Reinforces Coffers

   - Buenos Aires El Cronista reports that with the export sector continuing
   to liquidate intensely on the exchange market yesterday, the BCRA
   purchased $140 million and not only sustained the peso-dollar exchange
   rates, but also increased international reserves, which are now near $50
   billion and close to exc eeding the absolute record of $50.517 billion on
   27 March 2008. Economy Minister Announces 66% Swap Adherence, Operation
   Closed

   - Buenos Aires Telam reports at 1048 (1448 GMT) that in a press conference
   in the Economy Ministry, Amado Boudou has announced that \"another $12.067
   billion entered the swap,\" \"66% acceptance,\" stressed that that was
   \"comfortably\" above expectations, and announced, in reply to a question,
   that \"we have taken the decision to maintain it closed.\" (Buenos Aires
   Telam in Spanish -- Official website of government-owned news agency; URL:

   http://www.telam.com.ar/ http://www.telam.com.ar ) Border dispute over
   pulp mill Cristina Kirchner, Jose Mujica Speak by Phone

   - Buenos Aires Clarin's Niebieskikwiat reports that the president and her
   Uruguayan counterpart spoke by phone last Monday and, according to
   important sources, she updated him on her cabinet changes. They also
   advanced in their \"pos t-Botnia\" relationship, as their inner circles call
   it, and in the creation of joint Uruguay River monitoring, which could
   include Brazil, although Brazilian sources consulted by Clarin displayed
   no interest in the initiative and stated that they had received no formal
   request, but they did display willingness to cooperate in \"any diplomatic
   direction\" that would help to unblock the long dispute in the Mercosur.
   Mayors Reinitiate Dialog

   - Buenos Aires El Cronista reports that Juan Jose Bahillo and Omar Lafluf,
   mayors of Gualeguaychu and Rio Negro, respectively, have reinitiated
   dialog \"to work together,\" said Bahillo, who added that he asked Lafluf,
   whose department includes Fray Bentos, that Botnia would not transport
   merchandise for the paper-pulp mill on Highway 136 or the international
   bridge \"not to create new points of tension\" with the environmentalists.
   Lafluf considered the request \"reasonable\" and committed to med iating
   with the company.

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   15) Back to Top
   Heavy Rains, Floods Death Toll Rises to 44
   \"Death Toll in Brazil Floods Climbs to 44\" -- EFE Headline - EFE
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 17:40:53 GMT
   Emergency-management officials in Pernambuco say 15 people have died in
   the state and more than 42,000 have been forced to leave their homes.

   The situation is even worse in neighboring Alagoas, where 29 people are
   confirmed dead and 607 others remain missing, while 74,515 residents have
   lost their homes.

   Many of the state's towns were submerged as the Mundau and Paraiba surged
   to as much as 12 meters (39 feet) above normal levels. The floodwaters
   have begun to recede in some communities, leaving behind tons of garbage
   and debris.

   After a brief respite at the beginning of the week, the heavy rains
   resumed Tuesday night and forecasters are calling for continued wet
   weather.

   Brazil's armed forces are aiding police and firefighters in rescue and
   recovery efforts.

   Authorities are also using cadaver dogs to search for bodies, including
   some animals that did similar duty in Haiti after the 12 January
   earthquake. With many schools covered in mud and others pressed into
   service as shelters, the Alagoas education department moved up the break
   scheduled for July.

   Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva plans to visit the region
   Thursday to survey the damage.

   (Description of Source: Madrid EFE in English -- independent Spanish press
   agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is gener ally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   16) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Interview': There Is Room for Trade Improvement Between Zimbabwe
   And China
   Xinhua \"Interview\": \"There Is Room for Trade Improvement Between Zimbabwe
   And China\" - Xinhua
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 17:41:55 GMT
   By Gretinah Machingura

   HARARE, June 23 (Xinhua) -- A senior Zimbabwean government official said
   on Wednesday that there is room for trade improvement between Zimbabwe and
   China given the two countries' long history of friendly bilateral
   relations.Zimbabwean Economic Planning and Investment Promotion Permanent
   Secretary Desire Sibanda told Xinhua in an interv iew that Zimbabwe is
   instituting measures to lure more Chinese investors into the country, and
   would soon conduct road shows in China to market its investment potential
   to the Asian giant.\"There are a number of African countries that are
   trading with China more than ourselves so we need to dramatically improve
   in that area,\" he said.He said the Zimbabwe Investment Authority, the
   country's investment promotion body, is currently being restructured into
   a one-stop investment shop to enhance efficiency. \"China normally trades
   with countries that have economic zones. Zambia has economic zones where
   Chinese companies are operating so we also need to expedite
   operationalization of our one- stop investment shop to lure Chinese
   investors,\" Sibanda said.He said the Zimbabwen government would in the
   future open an investment office in China to coordinate Chinese investment
   into Zimbabwe, noting that countries such as Botswana have investment
   offices in the Asian co untry.While Sibanda could not provide latest trade
   figures between Zimbabwe and China, trade between the two countries was
   reported to have reached 500 million U.S. dollars in 2008.This was on the
   back of continued sound political ties between the two countries and the
   adoption of the \"Look East\" policy by the then government of President
   Robert Mugabe in 2003.Since the turn of the decade China has become one of
   Zimbabwe's business partners after Western countries started shunning the
   Southern African nation over alleged human rights abuses.The Asian giant
   has already emerged as the largest single importer of Zimbabwe's key
   export crop, tobacco. The Tobacco Industry and Marketing Board indicated
   in October last year that although China had not imported tobacco between
   May and September 2009, the country was still the number one importer with
   7. 281 tons.There are now many Chinese companies operating in Zimbabwe in
   such sectors as retail, mining, agriculture and man ufacturing.Sibanda
   said the Chinese were previously worried about the issue of the exchange
   rate and hyperinflation prevailing in the country prior to the adoption of
   multiple currencies early last year.\"But now those issues have been sorted
   out. There is no exchange rate risk in our economy now and the investment
   climate is highly conducive,\" he said.Sibanda said the positive growth in
   Gross Domestic Product has also made Zimbabwe an attractive investment
   destination.Zimbabwe's GDP has risen from negative growth rates of 10
   percent in 2008 to around 5 percent now, Sibanda said.\"The Chinese want to
   invest in growing economies and with our GDP now in the positive territory
   we believe we are now better placed to attract investment from China,\" he
   said.He said the interest by Chinese investors in Zimbabwe is also seen in
   the growing number of business delegations that started coming into the
   country soon after political and economic stability returned to the
   country following the formation of the inclusive government in February
   last year.Sibanda noted that global trade is increasingly moving to
   Brazil, China, Russia and India and he pointed out that it is imperative
   for Zimbabwe to follow the trend.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in
   English -- China's official news service for English-language audiences
   (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   17) Back to Top
   Brazil's Amorim Says Iran 'Must Respond' to Nuclear Concerns
   \"Iran Must Respond to Nuclear Concerns: Brazil\" -- AFP headline - AFP
   (North European Service)
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 13:36:42 GMT
   (Description of Source: Paris AFP in English -- North European Service of
   independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   18) Back to Top
   Brazilian Foreign Minister Visits Bulgaria, Defends Nuclear Deal With Iran
   \"Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Luiz Nunes Amorim Visits\" -- BTA
   headline - BTA
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 12:26:33 GMT
   (Description of Source: Sofia BTA in English -- state-owned but
   politically neutral press agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the so
   urce cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   19) Back to Top
   Angolan President Arrives in Brazil on Official Visit
   Unattributed report: \"Angolan President Dos Santos Arrives in Brazil\" -
   PANA Online
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 12:27:34 GMT
   (Description of Source: Dakar PANA Online in English -- Website of the
   independent news agency with material from correspondents and news
   agencies throughout Africa; URL:
   http://www.panapress.com/english/index.htm)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited.Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder.Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   20) Back to Top
   Kikwete Appoints New Envoys to Sweden, Canada
   Unattributed report: \"Kikwete Transfers Ambassadors\" - Daily News Online
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 11:31:19 GMT
   (Description of Source: Dar es Salaam Daily News Online in English --
   Website of the state-owned daily; URL: http://dailynews.co.tz)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   21) Back to Top
   News Roundup 22, 23 Jun
   For assistance with multimedia elements, contact OSC at 1-800-205-8615 or
   oscinfo@rccb.osis.gov - Iran - OSC Summary
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 08:10:01 GMT
   The following is a roundup of reports appearing in the Iranian media
   sources in English, and news and commentaries published in non-US media on
   22 and 23 June 2010. This roundup is in the following sections: (Click on
   the links to go to the desired section) POLITICS/DIPLOMACY NUCLEAR ISSUE
   ECONOMY/ENERGY MILITARY/SECURITY TERRORISM/CRIME/NARCOTICS
   DISSENT/OPPOSITION SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY SOCIETY/RELIGION HEALTH/MEDICINE
   CULTURE/MEDIA/SPORTS COMMENTARIES/ANALYSES/INTERVIEWS

   POLITICS/DIPLOMACY IRNA: \"President Ahmadinejad receives Syrian VP\"

   (Wed, 23 Jun) President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad received visiting Syrian
   Vice-President Farouq Ash-Shara here on Tuesday evening. In the meeting,
   President Ahmadinejad said that Iran and Syria have common view points on
   the world and regional issues and added that Tehran and Damascu s unity
   and unanimity deranged arrogance powers' plans. According to the report of
   the Presidential Office website, President Ahmadinejad said that the
   consolidated ties between the two countries are not political and
   sectional and according to the background whenever the two countries have
   entered an arena, it has always been with victory. He underlined that
   enemies in their own unclean goals to isolate Iran and Syria and
   stabilizie the Zionist regime in the region have failed and added that
   enemies are in a weak position, now. Confirming the Syrian VP's statement
   that the existence of the Zionist regime now is facing with a big question
   mark, Ahmadinejad said that this event is a reality and is a big victory
   which will be a preface for bigger events. Referring to the Tehran
   Declaration and appreciating Syria's supporting stance on Iran's nuclear
   program, Ahmadinejad said that as a matter of fact by the Tehran
   Declaration a new front was created against the arrogance powers and
   undoubtedly Iran and Syria are the central nucleus of the front. He
   concluded that the main factor which determines world future problems
   would be the existence of brotherly ties between independent and freedom
   loving countries which should be expanded and strengthened. Farouq
   ash-Shara, meanwhile, called the Tehran-Damascus relations strategic and
   said that goals and programs which the two countries follow are beneficial
   to the regional and world nations. He said that the regional nations
   should determine their own fate and added that this region owns rich
   resources and wealth and has been the birthplace of great civilizations,
   so these countries have the ability and capacity to build their own future
   without aliens' presence. Referring to the unjust measures of the UN
   Security Council, the Syrian VP said that the Security Council,
   International Atomic Energy Agency and other international organizations,
   related to the United Nations, whom had been created to solve wor ld
   problems as authorities should be obliged and committed to the frameworks
   which had been founded for. (Back to top) Press TV: \"Iran students protest
   Majlis bill\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Hundreds of Iranian students have staged a demonstration in
   front of the Parliament in protest at a bill passed by lawmakers regarding
   the Islamic Azad University. The bill allows the University to donate its
   property worth $200 billion dollars for public purposes. The government
   says the bill violates the articles of association of the Supreme Council
   of Cultural Revolution. The body, chaired by President Mahmoud
   Ahmadinejad, supervises the country's universities. The ongoing
   controversy between the government and the Azad University started after
   the government decided to take control of the university. However,
   according to Khabar Online news service, Majlis members voted for the
   public endowment of the university's properties under the condition that
   the premises belong to the university's board of trustees. The Islamic
   Azad University, founded in 1982, is the country's largest private chain
   of universities that consists of 357 branches and satellite campuses
   throughout the country and an enrollment of 1.4 million students. In terms
   of enrollment, the university is the third largest university in the world
   after India's Indira Gandhi National Open University and Pakistan's Allama
   Iqbal Open University. (Back to top) Mehr News Agency: \"Larijani calls
   harsh response to Azad University bill vindictive\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani has harshly criticized the
   opponents of a parliamentary bill on Islamic Azad University. The bill,
   which was approved on Sunday, allows Islamic Azad University to donate its
   properties for public purposes. The university's board of trustees had
   previously decided to endow the properties of the university. There has
   been strong opposition to the bill by some groups, especially those
   aligned to the administration, which claim it is in violation of the
   articles of association of the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution.
   On Tuesday, Larijani said there is a difference between constructive
   criticism and disparaging remarks, and this should be remembered when
   assessing the performance of the branches of government. \"If the norms are
   observed in the criticism of (government) branches, it will be good and
   will promote the progress of that branch, but (this should) not (be done)
   with bad language,\" Larijani stated in a speech to the lawmakers. Larijani
   said certain groups are trying to loudly blow the trumpet of their
   opposition in order to drown out the revolutionary voice of the parliament
   and called their response vindictive and ugly. The bill, if implemented,
   could enhance and empower the education system, he noted. Larijani also
   asserted that what the lawmakers chose to ratify, if endorsed by the
   Guardian Council, will come into force and should be r espected. However,
   in response to the parliament's ratification of the bill, a number of
   university students gathered outside the Majlis on Tuesday to voice their
   opposition to the bill. Some MPs also left the open session of the Majlis
   and joined the demonstration outside. The students also called for the
   resignation of Majlis Education and Research Committee Chairman Ali
   Abbaspour. (Back to top) IRNA: \"Iran protests to Security Council over
   resolution on false claims\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iran has protsted to United Nations Security Council over
   passing resulition 1929 on the basis of false accusations. Iran's Supreme
   National Security Council said in a letter to the UN Security Council that
   the resolution has been on the basis of false accusations and contrary to
   the expectations of the international community. (Back to top) Fars News
   Agency: \"Iran renews offer to help US harness oil spill\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ra min Mehman-Parast
   underlined Tehran's technical capability to help the US control the oil
   spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and said Tehran is ready to study
   Washington's request for help in this regard. The issue will be studied if
   the US administration asks for it,\" Mehman-Parast said in his weekly press
   conference here in Tehran today, stressing that Iran has the required
   expertise and skillful human resources in this ground. The spokesman said
   that resolving the problem of the oil spill and the resulting slick in the
   Gulf of Mexico is a humanitarian issue that encourages all countries to
   provide the necessary aids to reduce the vast and drastic effects of the
   incident on the environment. The remarks by Mehman-Parast came a day after
   The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) announced that its experts are
   prepared to control the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. \"The experience
   of Iranians' presence in curbing oil spills in a number of neighboring
   states in the Persi an Gulf, such as Kuwait, demonstrates Iranian
   capabilities and skills and the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps is ready
   to help curb the oil spill (in the Gulf of Mexico),\" Commander of the
   IRGC's Khatam ol-Anbia Headquarters General Rostam Qassemi stated. Qassemi
   reminded the environmental threat posed by the oil spill to the Caribbean
   states and nations, and stated, \"Despite new sanctions, the IRGC is
   prepared to fulfill its humanitarian duty in this regard and use its
   exclusive and indigenous capability in the Gulf of Mexico.\" Earlier on May
   24, Iranian Oil Minister Masoud Mir-Kazzemi had voiced the country's
   preparedness to aid the US in cleaning the massive oil spill in Mexico's
   Gulf Coast which threatens the surrounding environment. The BP-leased
   Deepwater Horizon rig exploded on April 20, killing 11 workers, and sank
   two days later. Ever since, hundreds of thousands of gallons of oil,
   perhaps even millions, have been spewing each day into the sea. The re
   sulting slick, now the size of a small country, threatens to leave
   Louisiana's fishing and coastal tourism industries in tatters, ruin
   pristine nature reserves, and cause decades of harm to the ecology of
   fragile marshes that are a haven for rare wildlife and migratory birds.
   The Obama administration has been forced to defend its response to the
   disaster as some Republicans have sought to portray it as its Katrina, an
   allusion to president Bush's mishandling of the response to the hurricane
   that devastated Louisiana in 2005. (Back to top) Fars News Agency:
   \"Spokesman advises EU to take opportunity for cooperation with Iran\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehman-Parast asked
   the European countries not to lose the chance for expanding their
   cooperation with Tehran. \"Europeans are expected to take the existing
   opportunities for developing cooperation and not to deprive themselves of
   this cooperation,\" Mehman-Parast told repor ters in his weekly press
   conference in Tehran on Tuesday. Asked about Iran's reaction to the
   implementation of the recent anti-Iran UN Security Council sanctions by
   Europe, he said the EU has not yet made a decision on the issue, but
   meantime stressed, \"These paths will not lead to results.\" On French
   President Nicolas Sarkozy's preparedness to talk with Tehran on its
   nuclear issue within the framework of the International Atomic Energy
   Agency (IAEA), Mehman-Parast pointed out that such positions are in
   opposition to the French government's performance and compliance with the
   US policies for sanctioning Iran. Meantime, he announced Tehran's
   preparedness to attend all bilateral and multilateral talks if Iran's
   principled rights are secured in such negotiations. (Back to top) IRNA:
   \"Iran hails Egypt's move to break Gaza siege\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehman-Parast said Tuesday
   that Iran hailed Egypt's recent move on opening of its borders with the
   Gaza Strip to transport humanitarian aid to the enclave. Following the
   Zionist regime's fatal attack on a peace flotilla which was sailing
   humanitarian aid to Gaza, Cairo decided earlier in June to open the Rafah
   border crossing with Gaza and end the Israeli blockade on the Palestinian
   territory. Speaking to reporters at his weekly press briefing,
   Mehman-Parast expressed hope that Cairo would pay due attention to the
   expectations of the international community as well as Egypt's historic
   duty for supporting the oppressed people of Gaza. Commenting on reports
   that said Iran was to send humanitarian aid for Gazans, Mehman-Parast said
   necessary arrangements were made by the government of Egypt for carrying
   the cargo into the Gaza Strip. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: \"Iran to
   send aid cargo to Gaza next week\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iran will send a convoy of humanitarian aids to the besieged
   Palestinians in the Gaza Strip next week. Iran's Red C rescent Society
   plans to send a ship carrying Iran's aids to the Gaza Strip, spokesman of
   the ship said on Tuesday, adding that the convoy is scheduled to leave the
   country's southern port city of Bandar Abbas next week. \"The Iranian Red
   Crescent Society's aid ship, dubbed as 'Gaza Children Ship' and carrying
   1,100 tons of medicine and foodstuff, will leave the port of Bandar Abbas
   and the pier of Bahonar next week,\" Abdulrauf Adibzadeh said. \"Five RC
   personnel and five reporters will also leave for Gaza on the ship,\" the
   spokesman stated, adding that Iran will officially issue the names and
   photos of the crews and passengers. In addition to 50 tons of medications,
   the ship will carry basic commodities and supplies needed by the besieged
   people, including blankets, cooking oil, canned food, detergents, flour,
   soap, sugar, water, children clothes, toys and balloons. Adibzadeh further
   said that the ship will have a 14-day voyage and all the necessity permis
   sions have already been Okayed. He noted that the cargo will respect all
   the international laws and regulations and will have no military support.
   (Back to top) Press TV: \"Iran bashes UAE officials' behavior\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) A top Iranian official says 'irresponsible' remarks made by
   certain authorities of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will harm Tehran-Abu
   Dhabi relations. \"A central plank of Teh ran's foreign policy is to
   enhance relations with neighbors and Muslim countries, and to promote
   unity in the Islamic community\", spokesperson for the Iranian Parliament's
   National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Kazem Jalai told IRNA. He
   was talking in response to the UAE Federal National Council Speaker Abdul
   Aziz Al Ghurair's inappropriate behavior in a meeting of the
   Inter-Parliamentary Union's (IPU) Executive Committee in Dubai which
   resulted in the Iranian delegates walking out of the session. \"Certain
   countries swayed by the US and other Western states promote Iranophobia in
   the region and across the world. They make undiplomatic remarks out of
   naivety and profiteering, which has a negative impact on reciprocal ties\",
   said Jalali. Iran's representative to the Dubai meeting added the West
   seeks peace in the Middle East with the aim of selling military weapons
   and creating a false competition in the region to advance its own
   interests. \"The UAE owes the better part of its economic development to
   Iran and Iranian investors\", Jalali underlined. Unfortunately, he added,
   irresponsible behavior and comments by some UAE officials have created 'a
   wall of mistrust' in the court of Iranian public opinion. (Back to top)
   IRNA: \"Rahimi: Iran calls for unified stands with Syria, Turkey, Iraq\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi said on Tuesday
   that ties between Iran and Syria are very consolidated and expressed the
   hope that a unified stands would be takeb by Iran, Syri a, Turkey and Iraq
   to help deepen such relations. Rahimi made the remarks in a meeting with
   visiting Syrian Vice President Farouq al Sharaa on Tuesday. The Islamic
   Republic of Tehran has always stood by Damascus at international
   gatherings and thanked Syria for its friendly and brotherly attitude to
   the Tehran Declaration, Rahimi said. The Islamic Republic of Iran has done
   its best to build confidence with the international community and Tehran
   Declaration proved the country's sincerity to this effect, he said.
   Referring to the attack of the Zionist regime on the Gaza aid flotilla, he
   said the inhuman behavior has brought the Zionists disgrace for its
   trampling upon all regulations of human society. The Islamic Republic of
   Iran and Syria are on the forefront of defending the oppressed Palestinian
   people, he said, adding that global developments have created a suitable
   opportunity for Iran, Syria and other freedom loving countries to help
   resolve the issue. \"During my v isit to Syria, we made some very good
   decisions on economic issues,\" he said. The two sides are determined to
   further uphold and broaden current level of political relations, Rahimi
   said. Iran hopes that Syria will successfully re-take the occupied lands
   and celebrate the occasion in Golan Heights, he said. The Syrian vice
   president, for his part, praised Tehran Declaration and said \"We believe
   that Iran's development belongs to all nations in the region.\" Iran and
   Syria have adopted similar stands on the issue of Palestine and the two
   countries through collective cooperation with other countries of the
   region such as Turkey and Iraq should thwart plots of the Zionists.
   Dispatch of Gaza flotilla has inflicted heavy blow on the Zionist regime
   and left crucial impacts on the global community, he said, adding that
   Iran and Syria through expansion of regional cooperation with Turkey and
   Brazil can neutralize pressures being exerted by the enemies and bring
   prosper ity and dignity for freedom loving nations. Ties between Iran and
   Syria are very amicable and deep-rooted, he said and called for more
   cooperation in dealing with existing challenges in the region. (Back to
   top) IRNA: \"Mashaei: Ties between Iran, Kuwait a model for regional
   countries\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Presidential Advisor and Head of Presidential Office
   Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei said on Tuesday that the broad-based and
   deep-rooted relations between Iran and Kuwait could turn into an exemplary
   model for other countries of the region. Mashaei made the remarks in a
   meeting with the Kuwaiti emir's special envoy Tareq Abdullah Al Faraj who
   is carrying a written message for the Iranian president. Existing ties
   between Iran and Kuwait are historical and brotherly and the two sides
   enjoy ample potentials that could be used to help broaden mutual and
   regional cooperation, Mashaei said. Tehran is ready to bolster all out
   relations with Kuwait, he pointed out. The Middle East region is now the
   most significant spot in the world and the countries of the region enjoy
   high capabilities for expansion of mutual as well as international
   cooperation, he said. Iran and Kuwait could play a leading role in
   regional developments, he said. The Kuwaiti envoy, for his part, called
   for expansion of relations between the two countries and said no one can
   sow seeds of discord between them. Given profound cultural and historical
   relations between the two countries, he said Kuwait is determined to
   broaden mutual and regional cooperation with Iran mainly in economic
   fields. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: \"Speaker: US prestige harmed by
   UNSC resolution\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani said the recent
   US-sponsored UN Security Council resolution against Iran harmed
   Washington's prestige and creditability. Speaking in a meeting between
   members of the parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy
   Commission and head of I ran's representative offices at the UN, Larijani
   reminded Washington's demands for a nuclear deal with Iran through Brazil
   and Turkey, and said after the two reached a deal with Tehran, the US
   acted the opposite and sponsored a resolution against Iran. \"The US has
   even forgotten its pledges to Brazil and Turkey. This is not political
   cleverness; it only promotes mistrust in the international stage,\" he
   said. West's reaction not only surprised, but also angered Turkish and
   Brazilian officials who had started talks with Tehran at the US request.
   Ankara and Brasilia expected a positive reaction from the US and its
   western allies after they struck the nuclear swap deal with Tehran, and
   they were astonished to see Washington's belligerent approach and adoption
   of fresh sanctions against Iran. The US-sponsored sanctions resolution was
   approved at the UN Security Council on June 9 with Brazil and Turkey's
   opposition and Lebanon's abstention. Larijani said the already deep
   mistrust between Iran and the US was even made deeper after Washington's
   recent move. He also pointed to the sanctions resolution and said despite
   western claims that the resolution is against the Iranian government not
   against the nation, inspecting ships, confiscating cargos and sanctioning
   transactions imposes limitations on the people. Iran is under four rounds
   of UN Security Council sanctions for turning down West's calls to give up
   its right of uranium enrichment, saying the demand is politically tainted
   and illogical. Tehran says sanctions and pressures merely consolidate
   Iranians' national resolve to continue the path. (Back to top) Press TV:
   \"Anti-Hezbollah campaign to face lawsuit\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) A member of the Lebanese parliament says the resistance
   movement of Hezbollah might file a lawsuit against those trying to distort
   the group's image. Hezbollah parliament member Nawaf Mousawi told the
   Lebanese media on Monday that the lawsuit would targe t \"anyone whom
   investigation shows to have taken funds from the US\" for political use.
   Earlier last week, the lawmaker said USD 500 million had been spent by the
   US and certain Arab countries to bribe people into criticizing Hezbollah.
   Mousawi implicated several Lebanese municipality officials and other
   political figures in the country in the bribery case. He also noted that
   the money was spent through the United States Agency for International
   Development. Meanwhile, the US embassy in Lebanon issued a statement to
   dismiss the allegation, saying that the US was committed to supporting
   Lebanon, its government, and its people. \"We provided this support
   transparently to the people and media, unlike others. The US is committed
   to continuing this support, and these baseless accusations will not change
   that,\" the statement read. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: \"Former Speaker
   calls for expansion of all-out ties between Iran, Algeria\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Former Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Gholam Ali Haddad
   Adel stressed the necessity for the development of relations between Iran
   and Algeria in all the different political, economic and cultural fields.
   Haddad Adel, who is now the head of the parliament's cultural commission,
   made the remarks in a meeting with the visiting Head of Algeria-Iran
   Parliamentary Friendship Group, Zobaideh Kharbash, here in Tehran on
   Tuesday. Haddad Adel hailed the good and friendly relations between the
   two countries, and said Iranian people respect the Algerian nation not
   only for the country's historical record and geographical importance but
   also for the Algerians' war of independence against colonialist powers. He
   also pointed to the growing tend of bilateral ties and mutual cooperation
   between Iran and Algeria, and underscored the necessity for the expansion
   of parliamentary relations between the two nations. Kharbash, for her
   part, described the relations between Iran and Algeria a s friendly and
   age-old, and called for an increase in reciprocal visits by the two
   countries' officials in a bid to deepen the bilateral ties. She also
   referred to the common positions of both countries on many international
   issues, including Palestine, and said the Algerian government believes
   that the Gaza siege should be ended. (Back to top) NUCLEAR ISSUE Press TV:
   \"Russia seeks US 'guarantees' on Iran\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Russia wants the US to guarantee that its unilateral
   sanctions imposed against Iran over its nuclear program will not affect
   Russian companies, a Kremlin aid says. Sergei Prikhodko, a senior Kremlin
   adviser on foreign policy, told reporters in Moscow on Tuesday that Russia
   has been affected by previous UN Security Council sanctions on Iran. A
   number of laws introduced in Germany to implement the (sanctions)
   resolution appeared to ban the transportation of Russia's cargo via
   Germany to Iran, he said. \"There have been no such cases from the US side
   so far, but we want to prevent them and have some guarantees concerning
   the issue,\" RIA Novosti quoted Prikhodko as saying on Tuesday. The UN
   Security Council imposed a fourth round of sanctions against Iran on June
   9, despite opposition from Turkey and Brazil. On Thursday, Russian
   President Dmitry Medvedev criticized unilateral US and European sanctions
   against Iran, warning the move might worsen the situation. Russia has
   called the unilateral sanctions \"disappointing,\" saying such moves could
   undermine future cooperation on Iran. \"We are extremely disappointed that
   neither the United States nor the European Union heeds our calls to
   refrain from such moves,\" Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov
   said last week. (Back to top) IRNA: \"IAEA continues non-stop nuclear
   inspections in Iran--envoy\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Vienna -- Iran's envoy to International Atomic Energy Agency
   (IAEA) in Vienna said Tuesday the agency cont inues its ceaseless
   inspections of the nuclear sites in the country. In an exclusive interview
   with IRNA, Ali-Asghar Soltaniyeh said Iran cooperates with IAEA and its
   inspectors within the framework of the regulations of the
   Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). \"If IAEA inspectors do not fulfill their
   responsibilities and give untrue or incomplete reports which cause
   jeopardizing cooperation between Iran and the IAEA, Tehran will demand
   crossing off their names from the list of Iran-related inspectors,\" he
   said. He underlined that new inspectors can surely do the job with no
   interrupton in the inspection process. Soltaniyeh said that two IAEA
   inspectors have already been eliminated from the list for the same reason.
   (Back to top) Press TV: \"'IAEA needs to be run professionally'\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki says Director
   General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Yukiya Amano
   should run the agency with a prof essional approach. Mottaki made the
   remarks in the wake of Tehran's decision to bar the entrance of two UN
   nuclear inspectors to Iran who had provided the agency with false
   information on Iran's nuclear program. \"This is actually a bylaw notice to
   Amano to take care that his inspectors do not violate the regulations of
   the international body,\" said Mottaki in a televised interview late
   Monday. Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Ali Akbar Salehi
   announced on Monday that the two inspectors would be barred from entering
   the country for passing false information about Iran's nuclear program to
   the IAEA and revealing information precipitately. Tehran has asked the
   IAEA to appoint two new inspectors for the job. Mottaki further reiterated
   that the fresh sanctions imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council (UNSC)
   would be to no avail and said they would be a heavy defeat for Western
   states \"which have been trying to impede Iran's peaceful nuclear activiti
   es.\" The UNSC endorsed a US-sponsored sanctions resolution against Iran on
   June 9 over its uranium enrichment program. The US-proposed resolution was
   passed with 12 votes after UNSC member states Brazil and Turkey voted
   against the new sanctions and Lebanon abstained from voting. (Back to top)
   Press TV: \"Mottaki: France N-talk offer, positive\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki describes French
   President Nicolas Sarkozy's offer to hold nuclear talks with Iran as a
   \"positive approach.\" \"We believe there are serious signs that France is
   willing to start an independent approach in some areas,\" ISNA quoted
   Mottaki as saying in a televised interview late Monday. \"Some French
   officials have such will and we consider the approach as positive. If more
   serious signs emerge, then Europe can enter a new phase to play role (on
   the nuclear issue),\" the senior official added. Sarkozy's offer to hold
   talks with th e Islamic Republic over its nuclear program follows a very
   recent UN Security Council resolution against the country over its uranium
   enrichment program. In a meeting with his Russian counterpart Dmitry
   Medvedev, Sarkozy had expressed France's readiness to start talks with
   Iran \"without delay.\" According to Sarkozy's spokesman, negotiations with
   Iran would be held \"on the basis of Brazilian and Turkish efforts\"
   regarding the fuel swap with Tehran \"and the response sent out by Russia,
   France and the United States.\" (Back to top) Press TV: \"Brazil hails
   Iran's nuclear stance\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim says Iran's
   willingness to adhere to the Tehran nuclear declaration, despite recent
   sanctions, is \"positive.\" \"There is a will to maintain the deal as a base,
   which is positive because after what happened in the (UN) Security
   Council, you could fear a less flexible reaction on Iran's side,& quot;
   Amorim told reporters during a visit to Bucharest on Tuesday. \"I am
   encouraged by the fact that in spite of a lot of rhetoric, which is
   natural, President Ahmadinejad said that the Tehran declaration (as the
   nuclear fuel swap deal is known) was still on the table,\" AFP quoted the
   top Brazilian diplomat as saying... On Tuesday, Turkish Foreign Minister
   Ahmet Davutoglu voiced Ankara's commitment to work with Brazil in seeking
   a solution to Iran's nuclear issue. \"We still believe a solution can be
   found. We are determined to continue our efforts...Brazil will continue to
   be with us,\" Davutoglu said. (Back to top) Mehr News Agency: \"Rejection of
   two IAEA inspectors justified: official\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast has
   stated that Iran's request for the replacement of two IAEA inspectors is
   justified. This request is within the rights of the Islamic Republic and
   the inspectors from the Internation al Atomic Energy Agency should
   thoroughly perform their duties, Mehmanparast said at his weekly press
   briefing on Tuesday. Asked why Iran denied two of the agency's inspectors
   access to the country's nuclear facilities, he said promulgating false
   information and leaking reports to irrelevant bodies were outside the
   purview of the inspectors' duties. Thus, Tehran has asked the IAEA to
   dispatch new inspectors, he added. The Foreign Ministry spokesman
   maintained that Iran is not opposed to inspections and is committed to
   cooperating with the agency. Elsewhere in his remarks, Mehmanparast
   dismissed the United Nations sanctions resolution against Iran as
   propaganda but added that it will affect Tehran's ties with countries that
   endorsed the sanctions through their yes votes. He also confirmed reports
   that Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has written letters to 12
   members of the UN Security Council regarding the sanctions resolution,
   saying the letters will soon be subm itted. The Iranian Foreign Ministry
   spokesman also stated that the letters of the Vienna Group (Russia,
   France, and the United States), which were sent on June 9 in reply to
   Iran's letter about the Tehran declaration on a nuclear fuel swap, mainly
   dealt with side issues. The Islamic Republic's response to the Vienna
   Group is being finalized and will soon be sent, he added. Mehmanparast
   said that the issues surrounding the nuclear fuel exchange should not be
   overshadowed by extralegal demands. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman
   stated that the request made by some Western countries for further
   negotiation with Iran over its nuclear activities shortly after the
   adoption of the anti-Iranian resolution was in line with the West's carrot
   and stick approach, adding that such a policy only works in the West
   itself. The West's approach will only complicate matters, he observed.
   Commenting on the similar appeal made by European Union foreign policy
   chief Catherine Ashton for more talks on the issue, Mehmanparast said she
   had failed to seize an opportunity that had been on the table for a long
   time. She has sent a letter to Tehran calling for the resumption of
   negotiation and will get her response soon, he said. Mehmanparast pointed
   out that the Tehran declaration provided a unique opportunity for
   negotiation with Iran. On the European Union's decision to impose
   unilateral sanctions on Iran, he advised the Europeans to choose their
   path carefully. They should not undermine their cooperation with Iran
   through imposing unlawful sanctions on the country, he added. (Back to
   top) ECONOMY/ENERGY IRNA: \"100,000-rial bank notes to arrive in market
   tomorrow\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) The Central Bank of Iran is to present the market with
   100,000-rial bank notes as of Wednesday June 23, it was announced here on
   Tuesday. CBI Secretary-General Mahmoud Ahmadi made the remarks while
   talking to reporters on the sidelines of a ceremony to unveil the paper
   mon ey. He added that 10 million pieces of the 100,000-rial bank note has
   so far been printed. (Back to top) Press TV: \"Pakistan not pulling out of
   Iran deal: PM\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Pakistan has reiterated that Islamabad will not back out of
   a 7.6-billion dollar deal with Iran, stressing that the country has no
   obligations to follow US decisions. \"We are not bound to implement US
   decisions,\" Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani said during a
   working lunch with lawmakers on Tuesday, a Press TV correspondent
   reported. Gilani made the remarks one day after reports said he had
   promised to respect a pending US legislation expected to tighten
   Washington's unilateral restrictions against Iran. \"We will follow if the
   UN imposes these sanctions,\" the premier stressed, adding that he was
   seeking to clarify his earlier statements and \"get it right.\" On June 12,
   the energy-starved South Asian country penned a gas pipeline deal with
   neighbor ing Iran, under which Tehran agrees to deliver 21.2 million cubic
   meters (750 million cubic feet) of natural gas per day to Pakistan from
   2014. US President Barack Obama's special envoy to Afghanistan and
   Pakistan Richard Holbrooke said Monday he had warned Pakistan that the
   expected sanctions could be \"comprehensive\" and target any countries or
   firms involved in the deal. The White House, seeking to increase pressure
   on Tehran, imposed its first set of unilateral sanctions immediately after
   the UN Security Council adopted a fourth round of punitive measure against
   Iran over its nuclear program. Iran firmly rejects Western allegations
   that its nuclear program harbors a secret military drive and says it aims
   to employ the peaceful aspects of the technology for civilian electricity
   generation and medical research. (Back to top) Fars News Agency:; \"Iran
   dismisses reports on halt in electricity exports to Iraq\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iran on Tuesday rejected s ome media reports alleging that
   the country has stopped supplying its western neighbor, Iraq, with
   electricity. \"Iran has not stopped export of electricity to Iraq and 500
   mw of electricity is being exported to the country at present,\" Deputy
   Energy Minister for Electricity and Energy Affairs Mohammad Behzad told
   FNA. \"The export of electricity to Iraq is carried out at five or six
   different points at present and what is heard about stopping Iran's
   electricity exports from (the western city of) Kermanshah to Diyala
   (province) in Iraq is not true,\" Behzad added. Meantime, he didn't dismiss
   the possibility of a drop in the voltage of the transferred electricity as
   a result of the hot summertime weather. Iraqi state television had
   allegedly reported that Iran had stopped supplying Iraq's national grid
   with 250 megawatts it had previously been sending down a power line from
   the Iranian province of Kermanshah to the neighboring Diyala province. The
   television report gave no other immediate details of the supply agreement
   between the two countries or the reason for its suspension by Iran. (Back
   to top) Fars News Agency: \"Turkmenistan rejects reports on stop of oil
   swap with Iran\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Turkmenistan's Foreign Ministry strongly rejected alleged
   media reports that the country has or will stop swap of oil with Iran. A
   senior Turkmen Foreign Ministry spokesman announced in a news conference
   in Ashgabat on Monday that the alleged report about Turkmenistan's
   decision to halt oil swap with Iran \"is not true\". Last Thursday, Reuters
   had quoted an unknown source as claiming that Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan
   may redirect oil exports to Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiisk rather
   than shipping it to Iran due to the new round of UN Security Council
   sanctions against Iran. Reuters also alleged that the Kazakh and Turkmen
   barrels would be directed through the Baku-Makhachkala-Novorossiisk
   pipeline originat ing in the Azeri capital on the shore of the Caspian
   Sea. Iran, which faces new UN Security Council sanctions, has swap
   arrangements with Central Asian producers under which it imports crude
   into Caspian ports and supplies equivalent barrels to buyers and tanker
   ships in the Persian Gulf. Kazakhstan has been pumping oil to Iran at a
   rate of 1.2 million tons per year. Turkmenistan exports 2 million tons of
   oil each year, but it is unclear how much goes to Iran. (Back to top) The
   Peninsula: \"Iran allots land for Qatar's trade center\"

   (Wed, 23 Jun) DOHA: The Iranian Ambassador to Qatar, Abdullah Sohrabi,
   yesterday said that Iran has allotted land at Bushehr for setting up
   Qatar's permanent trade centre. The planned centre will be set over 20,000
   square metres and is expected to boost trade between the two countries.
   Sohrabi visited The Peninsula newspaper's office yesterday and met its
   Editor-in-Chief Khaled Al Sayed. The move, the ambassador said, comes in k
   eeping with an agreement signed between the two counties several years
   ago. As for the Iranian trade centre in Qatar, Sohrabi said that the issue
   was discussed with the Chairman of Qatar Chamber of Commerce and Industry
   (QCCI). \"QCCI Chairman has promised to speed up the establishment of the
   trade centre,\" he added. (Back to top) IRNA: \"Iran labor minister in
   Ankara for bilateral talks\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Ankara -- Minister of Labor and Social Affairs Abdolreza
   Sheikholeslami, heading a delegation, arrived here on Tuesday to review
   the issues of mutual interest with Turkish officials. The minister's visit
   is taking place at the official invitation of his Turkish counterpart Omer
   Dincer. Sheikholeslami and Dincer are to discuss Tehran-Ankara's growing
   trade and economic cooperation later today. Talking to IRNA upon arrival
   at Ankara's airport, the Iranian minister said that his current visit is
   aimed at further expansion of all-out ties between the tw o sides. He
   announced that a protocol on bilateral labor cooperation is to be inked by
   the two countries. On Iran's great potentials in the areas of labor and
   social affairs, the minister said the Islamic Republic of Iran is first in
   vocational training in the Mideast region. During his three-day official
   visit, the Iranian minister is to meet with Turkish Minister of Public
   Works and Housing Mustafa Demir. He is also to meet and confer with
   Turkish chairman of Iran-Turkey Joint Economic and Trade Commission Cevdet
   Yilmaz. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: \"Iran's steel production exceeds
   1mln tons for 2nd consecutive month\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) The World Steel Association announced on Tuesday that Iran
   produced more than a million tons of steel in May, showing a stable
   increase in the country's steel production for the second month in row.
   \"The production of steel in Iran in May 2010 showed an 8% increase in
   comparison with the same period last year and reach ed 1.027mln tons,\" the
   worldsteel announced in its report. Based on the report, Iran had produced
   948,000 tons of steel in May 2009. \"It is for the second consecutive month
   that production of steel in Iran surpasses one million tons,\" the report
   said, adding, \"Iran's steel production had reached 1.033mln tons in
   April.\" Meantime, Iran's official reports had earlier announced that the
   total volume of steel production in the country reached 1.993mln tons in
   the first two months of the current Iranian year, showing a 6% increase
   compared with the same period last year. A statement issued by the Iranian
   Mines and Mining Industries Development and Renovation Organization
   (IMIDRO) earlier this month said that exports value of Iran's raw steel
   had also witnessed a 19% increase during the first two months of the
   current Iranian year (started on March 21). Iran has exported 138,776 tons
   of raw steel ($81,481,000) that shows a 19% increase in terms of value. I
   ran's former First Vice-President Parviz Davoudi last year had announced
   the country's plans for achieving self-sufficiency in steel production,
   saying that Iran intended to become the world's fourth steel producer in
   the near future. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: \"Iran, Italy study
   cooperation between Free Trade Zones\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iranian Ambassador to Roma Seyed Mohammad Ali Hosseini and
   authorities of Italy's free port of Trieste discussed ways to expand trade
   ties between the two sides. Hosseini was in Trieste to visit the port's
   infrastructures and meet with the relevant authorities, including
   President of the Port of Trieste Claudio Boniciolli. During the meeting,
   the two sides discussed cooperation between the Italian port and Iran's
   free trade zones, specially southern trade zones of Kish Island and Bandar
   Abbas. Elaborating on the potentials and facilities of Iran's free trade
   zones, Hosseini briefed the Italian side about tourism-related infr
   astructures in Kish Island. The Iranian and Italian officials also studied
   the possibility of cooperation between the two countries' shipping lines
   in transferring cargos and passengers. The two sides also underlined the
   necessity for an exchange of delegations in specific fields. (Back to top)
   MILITARY/SECURITY Press TV: \"Israel to spy on Iran with new satellite\"

   (Wed, 23 Jun) Israel says it has launched a new spy satellite in a
   southern military base which will reportedly enable Tel Aviv to spy on
   Iran's nuclear facilities. \"A few minutes ago...Israel launched the Ofek-9
   (Horizon-9) satellite from the Palmachim base,\" AFP quoted the Israeli
   Foreign Ministry as saying in a statement on Tuesday. \"The results of the
   launch are being examined by the technical team,\" the statement added. The
   ministry did not elaborate on the satellite, but Israel's public radio
   said the device, like its predecessors in the Ofek series, is cable of
   taking h igh resolution pictures. Developed by Israel Aircraft Industries
   and launched on a Shavit rocket, the satellite is aimed at monitoring
   Iran's nuclear program, the radio added. According to director of Israel's
   military space program Chaim Eshed, the Ofek-9 -- which is Israel's sixth
   spy satellite in space -- is expected to increase the speed at which
   Israel can receive high-resolution images of subjects of interest. Israel,
   which is the Middle East's sole wielder of some 200 to 300 nuclear
   warheads, accuses Iran of making efforts to produce nuclear weapons. This
   is while the International Atomic Energy Agency has in numerous reports
   asserted that its inspectors and surveillance equipment have found no
   evidence of diversion in Iran's declared nuclear material. (Back to top)

   http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100622/wl--mideast--afp/mideastisraelspyspace--20100622195314
   AFP: \"Israel launches spy satellite: defence ministry Press TV: \"Iran
   renews call for S.300 de livery\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) The Iranian defense minister says Russia will be responsible
   for the \"damages\" caused by its failure to deliver the S-300 missile
   defense system to Iran. Ahmad Vahidi said on Tuesday that the delivery of
   the air-defense systems would not violate Russian or international laws.
   His remarks come five days after Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign
   Affairs Andrey Denisov said that Moscow would freeze the delivery of the
   S-300 air-defense missiles system to Iran as it was against the new round
   of UN sanctions on Tehran... \"Russia has a duty to fulfill its
   obligations... Implementing the S-300 deal is not against Russian laws or
   i nternational regulations,\" Vahidi was quoted by Fars News Agency as
   saying. \"It is obvious that (Russia) is responsible for the damages caused
   by its failure to implement the deal,\" he added. Vahidi also said that
   Russia would soon announce its official stance on the issue and that Iran
   would make no further comments until then. (Back to top) Press TV: \"IRGC
   ready to tackle new threats\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) A top commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps
   (IRGC) says the IRGC develops its strategy based on new threats. \"The
   IRGC's Navy will formulate a strategy proportional to new threats\", IRGC's
   Navy Commander Rear Admiral Ali Fadawi was quoted by IRNA as saying on
   Tuesday. He was referring to new threats by the US and the Zionist regime
   of Israel. \"The trend of modernization, equipment and overhaul at the IRGC
   is gaining momentum\", the admiral further told an annual conference of the
   IRGC's Navy. He underscored the IRGC's Navy should channel its
   potentialities into countering new threats. (Back to top) Fars News
   Agency: \"Iranian Navy ready to inspect foreign vessels\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iranian Army's Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah
   Sayyari announced that the Navy is prepared to inspect the foreign ves
   sels passing through Iran's territorial waters once required by the
   parliament. \"In case of approval by the Islamic Consultative Assembly, we
   will reciprocate any possible threat of inspection of Iranian cargo
   ships,\" Sayyari said in a meeting with parliament's National Security and
   Foreign Policy Commission Chairman Alaeddin Boroujerdi and Defense
   Commission members here on Monday. The UN Security Council approved a
   sanctions resolution against Iran on June 9 which envisages inspection of
   Iranian vessels. Also during the meeting, Boroujerdi reiterated that if
   any country embarks on inspecting Iranian vessels, the Navy will not allow
   its ships to pass through the country's territorial waters without
   inspection. \"Unilateral inspection (of Iranian ships) is not compatible
   with the Islamic Republic's might and our national pride,\" he added.
   Elsewhere, he referred to the deployment of alien forces in the region,
   and stressed that military presence of the arro gant and trans-regional
   powers in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is not acceptable to Iran.
   \"We will not allow them to weaken the Islamic Republic of Iran's might
   through their presence,\" Boroujerdi added. (Back to top) IRNA: \"Iran-Oman
   border guards sign cooperation agreement\"

   (Wed, 23 Jun) Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province -- Commander of Hormuzgan
   border guard announced signing of a cooperation agreement between Iran and
   Oman border guards. On the sidelines of the closing ceremony of the fifth
   joint meeting of commanders of Iran and Oman border guards on Tuesday,
   Colonel Elyas Rastin told reporters that considering more than 470
   kilometers of common sea border between Iran and Oman Iran is willing to
   expand cooperation in protecting this common border. He also said that in
   recent years several joint meetings have been held between the two
   countries in this regard. The Iranian official added that one of the most
   important agreements in th e latest meeting was in the field of fishery.
   Upon the agreement, if fishermen from each side enter mistakenly into the
   other side's littoral waters, they should be extradited to their own
   country for investigation. Intensification of anti-drug missions within
   common sea border, exchanging border information, and prevention of
   organized crimes in this region were among other agreements reached in the
   meeting. The fifth joint meeting of Iran-Oman border guards started here
   on Sunday June 20, 2010. (Back to top) TERRORISM/CRIME/NARCOTICS Press TV:
   \"Iran puts 10 Rigi accomplices on trial\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) An Iranian official says 10 suspected Jundallah terrorists
   are facing trial for plotting attacks in retaliation for the arrest of
   their leader, Abdolmalek Rigi. Iran executed the ringleader of the
   Pakistan-based Jundallah terrorist group on Sunday, three months after his
   arrest by Iranian security forces on February 23 on a flight from Dubai to
   Kyrgyzstan. \" ;The public hearing of 10 accomplices of Abdolmalek Rigi
   opens later this evening,\" Head of the Sistan-Baluchestan Justice
   Department Ebrahim Hamidi said on Tuesday. The co-conspirators are charged
   with Moharebeh (waging war on God) for their membership in and active
   support of the terrorist group. Under Iranian law, Moharebeh is a crime
   punishable by the death penalty. \"Following Abdolmalek Rigi's arrest a
   number of (Jundallah) terrorists sought to enter the country, but their
   efforts were unsuccessful due to...the timely intervention of the
   intelligence forces, the military and the Islamic Revolution Guards
   Corps,\" Hamidi explained , saying that the 10 suspects were arrested
   during these operations. Hamidi also rejected as without basis \"Western
   claims that Rigi was not permitted legal council,\" stressing that the
   Islamic Republic treats all cases without bias. The judiciary's website
   also announced that following Rigi's execution, many of his form er
   associates had repented, and that authorities were working on a program
   that would grant temporary clemency to rebels who lay down arms. It added
   that while up to 300 people had already received pardons and lived with
   their families, another 100 cases were being processed. Rigi was charged
   with 79 counts of armed robbery, bombing operations, and armed attacks on
   civilians. His brother, Abdulhamid, was executed in May. (Back to top)
   Press TV: \"Iran blames US, UK for Afghan drugs\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Chief of Iran's anti-narcotics police blames US and Britain
   for the persisting drug problem in Afghanistan charging that their
   anti-narcotics policies involves deceptions and double standards. Brig.
   Gen. Hamidreza Hosseinabadi said in a meeting with deputy director of
   Russia's Anti-narcotics Agency Oleg Sukhanov that US and Britain have
   abandoned the fight against narcotics and are supposedly only after
   terrorism, despite the fact that terrorism in Afghanistan is f ueled and
   financed by drug trafficking, IRNA reported Tuesday. Referring to UN
   figures showing that over 10,000 tons of opium is kept in the warehouses
   of drug dealers in the country, he emphasized that the US-led foreign
   forces have not done a thing towards destroying such vast amounts of
   drugs. Hosseinabadi asserted that he believes that the transit of drugs
   out of Afghanistan is principally done through military bases in the
   country which remain in control of American and British forces. The
   Russian official thanked Hosseinabadi for Iran's efforts in fighting drugs
   and emphasized on the need for the cooperation of regional countries in
   containing the drug flow. Noting that there are over two million drug
   addicts in Russia, 90 percent of whom consume Heroin, he added that 30
   percent of Afghanistan's drugs are transited to Central Asia through its
   northern borders and it would not be possible to contain this major
   outflow of narcotics without the cooperation of Iran and int ernational
   bodies. (Back to top) Fars News Agency: 'Police seize 205 kg of opium in
   southeastern Iran\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iran's law enforcement police squads have seized large
   amounts of illicit drugs in a single operation in the country's
   southeastern province of Sistan and Balouchestan, a senior provincial
   police chief announced on Tuesday. Commander of Sistan and Balouchestan's
   Public Security Police Masoud Heidari announced that 205 kg of opium was
   seized from a truck on Zahedan-Bam road. Heidari added that after a series
   of intelligent operations police forces found out that drug-traffickers
   planned to smuggle large amounts of opium from the region to the central
   Iran, and they subsequently intensified security measures along the road
   for several days. Following the intensification of the security measures,
   police forces suspected the truck and discovered the opium cargo
   skillfully planted inside the vehicle, he added. Zahedan is the capital
   city of the Sistan and Balouchestan province. Southeastern Iran is close
   to the world's number one opium producer, Afghanistan, and
   drug-traffickers view this region as the start of a transit route to drug
   markets in Europe. (Back to top) SOCIETY/RELIGION IRNA: \"Supreme Leader
   condolence message for demise of late Imam son-in-law\"

   (Wed, 23 Jun) Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali
   Khamenei in a message condoled with late Imam Khomeini's family for the
   demise of Imam's son in-law Mr. Aarabi. In his message, the supreme leader
   asked for patience for demised's family members and requested divine
   blessing and forgiveness for the demised person. (Back to top) HEALTH
   /MEDICINE Press TV: \"Iranians find new strains of tuberculosis\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Iranian researchers have discovered two new strains of
   tubercles bacillus, which are believed to be resistant to the existing
   treatments. Ali Akbar Velayati, the head of Tuberculosis and Respirator y
   Disorders Research Center, told IRIB News Agency that neither of the
   existing medications is capable of treating the newly-discovered strains
   of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. He added that the two strains were
   discovered by Dr Farnian from Tuberculosis and Respiratory Disorders
   Research Center in two separate joint studies conducted in collaboration
   with Malaysian and Belarus researchers. Velayati went on to say that
   Iranian scientists have also succeeded in producing nano-crystals which
   can penetrate the membrane of the drug-resistant tubercles bacillus,
   adding that this finding can pave the way for the development of new
   anti-TB medication. The head of Tuberculosis and Respiratory Disorders
   Research Center added that drug-resistant tuberculosis has become a global
   concern, turning tuberculosis into a fatal disease. (Back to top)
   CULTURE/MEDIA/SPORTS Press TV: \"Tehran exhibits World War II docs\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Tehran's Sa'ad Abad Cultural and Historical Co mplex has
   displayed documents related to damages imposed on Iran as a result of the
   Second World War. The exhibition was inaugurated on Tuesday morning in a
   wartime shelter which was built by the Pahlavi monarch in the 1940s. \"Out
   of four thousand documents revealing the destructions imposed on Iran in
   World War II, 275 were selected of which only 120 were put on display due
   to space constraints,\" said Rozita Salehi Nezami, the head of the
   exhibition. \"The documents reveal that despite Iran's neutral stance at
   the time of the war, we suffered great damages and loss,\" CHTN quoted
   Salehi Nezami as saying. \"The photos show the presence of allies in Iran
   and also the demolition of hospitals and railways are among the many
   damages we suffered during the war,\" she further explained. On the
   sidelines of the inauguration ceremony Hamid Baqaie, Iran's Vice-President
   and the head of Iran's Cultural Heritage Organization, said that \"Despite
   the huge a mount of losses, Iran has not received any compensation.\" The
   top official called for legal action to seek compensation for the damage.
   (Back to top) COMMENTARIES/ANALYSES/INTERVIEWS The Nation (Pakistan):
   \"Pakistan to follow UN not US sanctions against Iran: PM\" by Abrar Saeed

   (Wed, 23 Jun) ISLAMABAD - Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani has said
   that Pakistan is not bound to follow US sanctions on Iran, however, it
   will stand by its international obligation in case UN comes up with
   sanctions on Iran.\"As far as US is concerned we are not bound to follow
   the sanctions, but if these are slapped by the United Nations, we will
   consider the same under the obligation of international law,\" Prime
   Minister Gilani said.Addressing a luncheon given in honour of
   parliamentarians here on Tuesday, the Prime Minister clarified his remarks
   made on Monday at Garhi Khuda Bux about the impact on the over US $7
   billion Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project if sanctions were imposed by
   the US or the UN on Iran.In his address to the MPs, the Premier said that
   all state institutions should work within their constitutional ambit for
   achieving the collective good and for the welfare of the masses.
   Dispelling the impression of any clash like situation between the
   institutions, he said that the Government enjoyed good relations with all
   the state institutions and quickly added that certain elements wanted to
   create conflict between the Government and the Judiciary but all such
   attempts would fail. He further said that the Judiciary was trying to
   bring about social justice in the society.Prime Minister Gilani said the
   people of Pakistan had elected its representatives for a period of five
   years with a view to solve their problems.Gilani said the Government had
   never claimed that there were no problems or it knew the solution to all
   ills, but said that it was learning from experience and its mistakes.He
   said the Government had good ties w ith the Opposition, media and all
   other pillars of the state and believed that the country could progress
   and move forward by adhering to the policy of reconciliation and
   consensus.He said the Government with the support of all political forces
   in the country forged a strong policy against the militants and the entire
   nation stood as one. He further said that it was the strength of the
   masses that the Government had frustrated those elements which had
   challenged the writ of the Government in Swat and Malakand. (Back to top)
   TheNation: \"Pakistan not bound to US sanctions on Iran: Gilani\"

   (Tue, 22 Jun) Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani says Pakistan will go
   ahead with a plan to import natural gas from Iran even if the US levies
   additional sanctions on the Mideast country. Speaking at a luncheon to
   parliamentarians on Tuesday, Gilani said, \"We are not bound to implement
   the US decisions. We will follow if the United Nations impose the
   sanctions.\" Gi lani's comments Tuesday come two days after the U.S.
   special envoy to Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, said new sanctions being
   finalized by Congress could affect the deal with Iran. The prime minister
   said Pakistan would reconsider the gas deal if it violated U.N. sanctions,
   but not those levied unilaterally by the U.S. (Back to top) The Nation
   Editorial: \"Yielding to pressure\"

   (Wed, 23 Jun) ONE day US representative Richard Holbrooke makes a public
   statement before the media that his country has no objection to the
   Iranian gas pipeline project; the very next day, he backtracks, very
   likely on being upbraided by Washington, and qualifies it with the remark
   that the US was drafting a legislation against Iran, which might
   jeopardise it. Then, while at Multan, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood
   Qureshi sharply reacts by saying, \"we have to look after our interests\".
   He was confident that the project did not come under the purview of the UN
   sanctions that, in any case, Pakistan would follow, giving the clear
   impression that it has taken the decision to go ahead, whatever the
   American law might say. The nation, not only seething with anger at the
   government's obsequious attitude to the US but also under stress for a
   long list of worries and desperately wanting to get rid of the agony of
   loadshedding, was elated at this posture, which reflected the need to
   serve the national interest and befitted the behaviour of a sovereign
   state.Sadly, however, that feeling was not to last long. Soon afterwards,
   the official view took a sharp turn, and a tame acceptance of the US
   pressure became evident. All that talk of fiercely preserving our national
   interest and sovereign right in the conduct of relations with any country
   and the nation's euphoria that at last Pakistan was coming into its own,
   abruptly ended as Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani told newsmen at Garhi
   Khuda Bux that Pakistan would abide by the American sanctions i.e. as
   stipul ated in the legislation on the anvil in the US. Blatantly denying
   the stark reality that has, of late, become characteristic of Prime
   Minister's utterances, he maintained, \"we will not act under anyone's
   dictation.\" (Back to top) The News (Pakistan): \"Taking dictation\"

   (Wed, 23 Jun) The possibility that our government is more pliant to the
   interests of the US than to its own people was driven home strongly by the
   prime minister's unexpected comments on Monday in Garhi Khuda Bux. He
   stated that Pakistan was likely to abide by US sanctions on Iran - a move
   that would put an end to the $ 7.6 billion gas pipeline project with Iran.
   Confusingly, on Tuesday Mr Gilani appeared to contradict himself by saying
   that Pakistan was not bound to follow the restrictions placed on Iran by
   the US, and that we would consider the implementation of sanctions in the
   light of our 'international obligations'. Be that as it may, it is obvious
   the indication that the fina l signatures may not be put on the deal came
   in response to pressure from US Special Envoy Richard Holbrooke who was
   recently in Islamabad.Scrapping the deal would mean a still more acute
   energy crisis in the country. The pipeline is essential to meeting our
   energy needs over the next two decades. The agreement with Tehran was
   close to being finalized. For some time, Iran has been asking Pakistan to
   finalize this deal. One wonders why this was not done faster - before
   Washington could twist arms with so much force. Even now, there is nothing
   to prevent Islamabad from going ahead to buy gas from Iran. Why Pakistan,
   as a sovereign state, should feel compelled to follow the US lead on Iran
   is a question that will undoubtedly be put to the prime minister and other
   government members. The lack of power to run mills and machines has
   already inflicted massive losses and left thousands workless. People elect
   governments to protect their interests. Mr Gilani's remarks suggest this
   on e is doing just the opposite. We urge the government to review any
   decision taken in this respect. It is vital that the welfare of the people
   of Pakistan be put ahead of all else. It is also important that regional
   ties be strengthened. The PM emphasized this himself with reference to
   India. It holds equally true as far as ties go with Iran. The scrapping of
   the deal, after it has been announced amidst much fanfare, will do nothing
   to build ties with Tehran and has already evoked angry voices across
   Pakistan. (Back to top) AFP: \"UAE applies tougher measures on Iran trade\"

   (Wed, 23 Jun) firms in the United Arab Emirates are increasingly coming
   under tougher measures in line with UN sanctions against Tehran over its
   nuclear drive, a senior Iranian businessman said on Tuesday.\"We are
   observing a very strict application of the UN sanctions against Iran,\"
   Morteza Masoumzadeh, vice-president of the Iranian Business Council in
   Dubai, told AFP.Masoumzade h said the implementation of sanctions started
   about two years ago but have \"become tougher in the past couple of months
   especially at Dubai ports.\"\"All containers that arrive to the UAE for
   Iranian traders and which are normally sent to Iran by smaller vessels,
   have now to be unloaded and put into new containers, which cost the
   traders 1,000 extra dollars per container,\" he said.On June 9, the UN
   Security Council slapped a fourth round of sanctions on Iran over its
   controversial nuclear drive, this time tightening the noose on military
   and financial transactions.The resolution bans the sale to Iran of eight
   new types of heavy weapons and applies new restrictions on Iranian
   investments abroad.For years, Iran maintained active trade relations with
   Dubai, one of seven emirates making up the UAE, with the trade volume
   estimated at about 10 billion dollars a year, mostly of Iranian
   imports.Masoumzadeh said newly arriving Iranian merchants are facing
   several r estrictions as many of them are denied a license to operate
   while others have to undergo tougher procedures.These measures \"will
   affect the overall trade relations between the UAE and Iran,\" estimated to
   have dropped to seven billion dollars last year from about 10 billion
   dollars previously, he said.The \"UAE is no longer Iran's first trade
   partner as it has slipped to the third place,\" Masoumzadeh said.The
   Dubai-based Gulf News daily on Monday quoted an unnamed UAE official as
   saying the Gulf state has closed down 40 international and local firms as
   part of a crackdown on companies that violate UN sanctions on Iran.These
   companies have been dealing in \"dual-use and dangerous materials banned
   under UN resolutions and the nuclear non-proliferation treaty,\" the
   official said.Masoumzadeh however said he was unaware of any closures
   among the 1,000 companies that come under the Iranian Business
   Council.\"There are 8,000 Iranian companies in the U AE out of which nearly
   1,000 are members of the IBC. However, none of the alleged 40 Iranian
   companies that they were shut down were members of the IBC,\" he said.\"I
   have no information about any of those companies that has been closed.\"
   (Back to top) The Gazette (Canada): \"Canada strengthens Iranian sanctions;
   Activists urge even toughter measures\" by Juliet O'Neill and Norma
   Greenaway

   (Wed, 23 Jun) Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced a tightening of
   Canadian sanctions targeting Iran's nuclear industry yesterday, just days
   before he is to host a G8 summit where heightened pressure on Iran will be
   a prominent international security theme.The measures to implement a
   recent United Nations Security Council resolution will have little if any
   impact on Canada's economic relationship with Iran, comprising mostly
   Canadian grain exports.Iranian-born human rights activist Nazanin
   Afshin-Jam and Liberal MP Irwin Cotler also released a report endorsed by
   about 100 scholars, activists and parliamentarians -including three former
   Canadian prime ministers -calling for broader, tougher sanctions to punish
   the Iranian regime for systemic and widespread human rights
   violations.However, analyst Anthony Seaboyer, a Queen's University expert
   on Iran's nuclear program, said Canada's compliance with UN sanctions
   against Iran's nuclear pursuits may be undermined by the federal
   government's plan to sign a civilian nuclear agreement next week with
   India -a country that has not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty.Iran is
   a signatory to the treaty, but is accused of breaching it by pursuing
   nuclear weapons production. Signatories are not allowed to develop weapons
   if they don't already have them and signatories are not supposed to
   support civilian nuclear progra

   22) Back to Top
   Taiwan-made Shirts Worn By Nine Teams In 2010 World Cup
   By Chao Yu-fan and Frances Huang - Central News Agency
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 05:13:45 GMT
   Brussels, June 23 (CNA) -- Nine of the soccer teams in the 2010 World Cup
   are wearing uniforms made of recycled materials manufactured by Taiwanese
   textile companies, the European Parliament magazine reported recently.

   Wang Chen-tai, head of the news division at the Taipei Representative
   Office in the EU and Belgium, was quoted in the magazine as saying that
   while Taiwan does not have a team in the World Cup, it has supplied
   uniforms for the international sports event.Wang said the uniforms are
   evidence of Taiwan's cutting-edge technology in the textile sector and its
   commitment to reducing carbon emissions and protecting the global
   environment.The Taiwan sportswear supplied to the nine teams and retailers
   were made from 13 million recycled polyethylene terephthalate (PET)
   bottles, with each sports shirt requiring eight recycled PET bottles on
   average, he said.The World Cup teams wearing the Taiwan-made sports
   uniforms are Brazil, the Netherlands, Portugal, the United States, South
   Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Serbia and Slovakia.The manufacturing
   process involved breaking down the PET bottles which were then extruded
   into polyester fiber and spun into fabric, according to the Taiwan Textile
   Research Institute (TTRI).To color the shirts, the Taiwan manufacturers
   employed a dyeing technology that meets global green standards, which is
   an indication that Taiwan has become a world leader in that particular
   production area, the institute said.It took years of research by the
   Taiwan textile sector and the TTRI to develop that manufacturing
   technology, it added.Apart from its entry into the world's premier soccer
   competition, Wang said, Taiwan-made environmentally friendly sportswear
   has also become popular among multinational sports goods
   brands.(Description of Sou rce: Taipei Central News Agency in English --
   \"Central News Agency (CNA),\" Taiwan's major state-run press agency;
   generally favors ruling administration in its coverage of domestic and
   international affairs; URL: http://www.cna.com.tw)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   23) Back to Top
   Observers Blame Kim Jong Il for DPRK's 'Foolish' World Cup Tactics
   Unattributed report: \"Kim Jong-il Blamed For N.Korea's Foolish World Cup
   Tactics\" - Chosun Ilbo Online
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 06:43:03 GMT
   A source who knows Kim Jong-hun's playing style very well said that the
   match against Portugal was not played in a way the North Korean coach
   wanted and that he must have been pressured from someone outside. \"Kim
   Jong-hun, who is composed and laid-back, adheres to defense-oriented
   tactics since he was formerly a defender, but North Korea played an
   unreasonable offense-oriented tactics at the time when the gap was
   widening,\" the source said.It appears that North Korea had high hopes of
   the game, which it broadcast live for the first time in its history. Kim
   Yong-hyun, a professor at Dongguk University, said, \"The North Korean
   leadership seems to have wanted to consolidate its hold and look for ways
   to turn the tables through a victory in the World Cup as it is struggling
   both economically and diplomatically.\" Another government official said,
   \"The brave display of discipline against Brazil on June 16 raised the bar
   for the North Korean team and instilled extravagant hopes in people.\"The
   atmosphere in the North is said to be subdu ed after the rout. Kim
   Sung-min, who heads radio channel Free North Korea Radio, said, \"We
   contacted North Koreans, and they said that they feel let down and upset.
   There are people who said they were so upset that they drank themselves
   senseless and that they can never forgive the players.\"

   (Description of Source: Seoul Chosun Ilbo Online in English -- English
   website carrying English summaries and full translations of vernacular
   hard copy items of the largest and oldest daily Chosun Ilbo, which is
   conservative in editorial orientation -- strongly nationalistic,
   anti-North Korea, and generally pro-US; URL: http://english.chosun.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   24) Back to Top
   Xinhua 'Roundup': Exports, Manufacturing Boost Mexico's Economic Recovery
   Xinhua \"Roundup\": \"Exports, Manufacturing Boost Mexico's Economic
   Recovery\" - Xinhua
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 05:34:00 GMT
   MEXICO CITY, June 22 (Xinhua) -- Mexico's exports and manufacturing
   industry gained momentum in the last six months, giving the country's
   economy a lift.

   Mexico's National Statistics Agency (NSA) reported this week the country's
   exports registered a year-on-year growth of 23.6 percent in the first
   quarter, up from 7.3 percent a quarter earlier.In response, Banamex,
   Mexico's second largest bank, commented that \"the rapid expansion of auto
   sales overseas and growth in manufacturing are pushing export growth.\"The
   most significant manufacturing growth was registered in the production of
   cars and trucks, which was completely pushed by U.S. de mand.There are
   also signs of recovery in maquilas, the country's small factories that
   import raw materials or semi-finished goods and export consumer goods to
   the United States.\"The auto sector is showing growing exports and
   production,\" Carlos Gonzalez Martinez, chief economist at Scotiabank
   Inverlat, told Xinhua, adding that \"maquila employment is also showing a
   small recovery over the last two or three months.\"The Mexican Auto
   Industry Association reported this month that auto production surged 65.3
   percent in May compared with a year earlier, while exports increased 73.9
   percent.Also in June, the NSA reported that employment by manufacturers,
   maquilas, and export service providers, the so-called IMMEX grouping,
   climbed 6.2 percent in March compared with a year earlier. In Chihuahua, a
   state most closely linked to U.S.-bound exports, IMMEX employment rose by
   14.1 percent.The IMMEX survey covered nearly 5,300 businesses across the
   nation, but 75 percent of the businesses are concentrated in eight states
   -- Chihuahua, Baja California, Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas, Coahuila, the state
   of Mexico, Jalisco and Sonora. Both Baja California and Nuevo Leon
   reported double-digit employment increases.Mexico is emerging from a slump
   that wiped off 10.3 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) in the
   second quarter of 2009, its worst period, in the aftermath of the
   financial crisis in the U.S. housing industry.Many Mexican banks are owned
   by U.S. and Spanish banks, which were hard hit by the collapsing property
   market in the U.S. As a result, problems north of the border were quickly
   felt by Mexican manufacturers and consumers. Exports suffered a decline of
   15.2 percent during January 2009, their worst month.As the crisis hit, the
   Mexican government worked hard to find buyers for its products apart from
   the United States, which buys around 80 percent of all Mexican exports,
   reaching out to France and Brazil via government export promotio n agency
   ProMexico.Other nations in Latin America experienced less dramatic
   economic shocks thanks to a looser link to the United States. Brazil, with
   14 percent of its exports going to the United States, experienced a merely
   0.2-percent economic decline during 2009, according to the Brazilian
   Institute of Geography and Statistics.While this year's figures are
   impressive, experts believe the Mexican economy will continue to suffer
   from its excessive dependence on the United States.However, analysts said
   the government's efforts to diversify its trade partners are expected to
   pay off and give the country a more stable and sustainable export
   pattern.(Description of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's
   official news service for English-language audiences (New China News
   Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   25) Back to Top
   Brazil Condemns Sanctions Imposed on Syria
   \"Brazil Condemns Sanctions Imposed on Syria\" -- NOW Lebanon Headline - NOW
   Lebanon
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 10:00:34 GMT
   Brazilian Ambassador to Syria Edgar Antonio Cassiano told Syrian newspaper

   Al-Watan on Wednesday that his country condemns all sanctions imposed on
   Syria,\"since we realize that (this step) is not a way to resolve disputes
   betweenstates.\" He added Syrian President Bashar al-Assads expected visit
   to Brazil isof upmost importance.He also said that Brazil decided to push
   for a nuclear swap deal between Iran,Turkey and Brazil in order to reach a
   peaceful solution to Tehrans nucleardrive, which western countries have
   said aims to build a nuclear bomb.T he UN security Council imposed a
   fourth round of sanctions on Iran over itsnuclear program earlier this
   month despite the three-party agreement to sendIrans uranium abroad for
   enrichment.Regarding Israel, the ambassador said Brasilia condemns all
   forms of violence,\"especially the Israeli offensive on Gaza (two years
   ago). We reiterate ourrejection to such actions.\"-NOW Lebanon(Description
   of Source: Beirut NOW Lebanon in English -- A privately-funded pro-14
   March coalition, anti-Syria news website; URL: www.nowlebanon.com)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.

   26) Back to Top
   Brazil Economic Issues 21-22 Jun 10
   . - Brazil -- OSC Summary
   Wednesday June 23, 2010 05:29:22 GMT
   - Sao Paulo Agencia Brasil reports on 22 June that according to data from
   the Central Bank (BC)'s weekly Focus bulletin with projections from the
   financial market on the key indicators of the Brazilian economy, Brazil's
   economic growth will reach 7.06% this year, up from the previous
   projection of 6.99%. According to the report, this is the 14% consecutive
   increase in projections. Story adds that the projection for 2011 was
   maintained at 4.5%. (Brasilia Agencia Brasil WWW-Text in Portuguese --
   Government-owned news agency. URL: as of filing date:
   http://www.agenciabrasil.gov.br/) Mantega Says Brazil To React To Increase
   in Real Value

   - Brasilia Correio Braziliense's Gabriel Capriolli and Vera Batista report
   on 22 June that Finance Minister Guido Mantega stated that the government
   has tools to avoid a massive inflow of dollars in case the European
   economy recovers. \"When the European economy recovers, and it seems that
   it is, there will be pressure with the inflow of funds to Brazil. We might
   then record a valuation in our currency, which of course we will try to
   prevent,\" he stated. Mantega also deemed positive the possibility that
   China will adopt a more flexible exchange rate and allow the fluctuation
   of the currency, but complained of the slow pace of the process. (Brasilia
   Correio Braziliense Online in Portuguese -- Website of pro-government
   daily generally differs from printed version, which is available on site
   to subscribers; URL:

   http://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/ http://www.correiobraziliense.com.br
   ) Stock Exchange Increases Following China's Decision To Adopt Flexible
   Exchange Rate - Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo's Claudia Violante reports
   on 22 June that China's decision to adopt a flexible exchange rate for the
   yuan has led to a positive start to the week in the Sao Paulo Stock
   Exchange (Bovespa), which increased ye sterday pulled by Vale and steel
   company stocks. (Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo digital in Portuguese --
   Website of conservative, influential daily, critical of the government;
   URL:

   http://www.estadao.com.br/ http://www.estadao.com.br ) Vale to Invest $90
   Billion in 5 Years

   - Sao Paulo Valor reports on 22 June that Vale Company is preparing the
   investment plan worth $90 billion for the next 5 year, 70% of which in
   Brazil. According to the report, some $40 billion will be invested in new
   iron ore projects and the company plans to increase production from 300
   million to 450 million tons per year until 2014. (Sao Paulo Valor Online
   in Portuguese - Website of financial daily published jointly by the Folha
   and Globo media conglomerates; URL:

   http://www.valoronline.com.br http://www.valoronline.com.br ) Petrobras
   Announces $224 Billion Investment Plan

   - Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo's Kelly Lima reports on 21 June that the
   Brazilian Petroleum Corporat ion (Petrobras) maintained its investment
   plans close to the volume that had been approved in March by the managing
   board and the company announced today that it will invest $224 billion
   from 2010 to 2014, $212.3 billion of which in Brazil and $11.7 billion (5%
   of the total) in the international area. According to the report, the
   volume announced represents an average investment volume of $44.8 billion
   per year. In related news, another report by Kelly Lima in O Estado on 21
   June adds that the Petrobras business plan for 2010-2014 maintained the
   company's growth targets at a rate of 9.4% per year until 2014 or 7.1% per
   year by 2020. According to the report, the company's oil production target
   is 3.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2014 and a projected
   5.4 million in 2020, namely 2.98 million barrels per day in Brazil in 2014
   and 3.95 mil lion barrels in 2014. Trade Surplus Amounts to $806 Million
   in Third Week of June

   - Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo's Sa ndra Manfrini reports on 21 June
   that the Brazilian trade balance recorded a surplus of $806 million in the
   third week of June (14 to 20) according to data released on 21 June by the
   Ministry of Development, Industry, and Foreign Trade (MDIC). According to
   the report, in five business days, exports amounted to $4.075 billion and
   imports to $3.269 billion. Mantega Deems Chinese Decision on Exchange Rate
   'Good Start'

   - Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo's Adriana Fernandes reports on 21 June
   that according to Mantega, China's decision to work toward a more flexible
   exchange rate for its currency is a good start, but its impact on the
   global exchange rate balance will depend on the speed with which this will
   take place. (OSC is translating this item) Analysts Expect 'Soft Landing'
   for Brazilian Economy Following Excessive Growth

   - Sao Paulo O Estado de S. Paulo's Fernando Dantas reports on 21 June that
   according to most analysts, the Brazilian economy is expected to h ave a
   \"soft landing\" after the excessive growth in early 2010, which means that
   the scenario starting late this year and particularly in 2011 is not
   expected to be bad, but not enthusiastic either. Op-Ed Discusses
   Perceptions Between US, Brazil

   - Sao Paulo Valor carries an op-ed on 21 June by Sergio Leo on the
   diplomatic and trade issues between Brazil and the United States.

   (OSC is translating this item)

   The following media were scanned and no file worthy items were noted:

   (Sao Paulo Folha de Sao Paulo Online in Portuguese - Website of generally
   critical of the government, top-circulation newspaper; URL:
   http:www1.folha.uol.com.br/fsp)

   (Description of source: Sao Paulo Brasil Economico - Online version of
   economic daily; URL:

   http://www.brasileconomico.com.br www.brasileconomico.com.br )

   (Rio de Janeiro JB Online in Portuguese - Website of center-right
   commercial daily affiliated to the Catholic Church; URL:

   http://jbonline.terra.com.br http://jbonline.terra.com.br )(Rio de Janeiro
   O Globo Online in Portuguese -- Website of Rio de Janeiro's top
   circulation daily, part of the Globo media conglomerate; URL:

   http://oglobo.globo.com http://oglobo.globo.com )(Porto Alegre Zero Hora
   (Internet version-WWW) --- Porto Alegre's leading daily

   http://zerohora.com.br/ URL:http://zerohora.com.br )

   (Brasilia Jornal de Brasilia (Internet Version-WWW) in Portuguese ---
   Brasilia daily URLhttp://www.jornaldebrasilia.com.br/)

   (Sao Paulo Agencia Estado in Portuguese - Center-right, largely
   pro-administration news agency)

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.
","2010-06-24 12:30:04",1,"2012-08-02 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/817740_bra-brazil-americas-.html","dialogbot@smtp.stratfor.com","","translations@stratfor.com",""
865756,"Re: [latam] BRAZIL - Interesting interview,
	analysis of recent favel wars and reorganization
","   it's y'all, haha. get it right, fedirka
   please write to him and send him our own analysis. good way to start a
   dialogue.
   On Dec 7, 2010, at 1:06 PM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

     this other 'specialist' aslo had and interesting take on the situation. 
     I may try stalking him if we think he'd be interesting to write to/talk
     with.  Some of his comments were right in line with our analysis which
     is always cool.  (so this is my virtual pat on the back to ya'all? 
     y'all? ya'll?)

     \"Quem acha que a batalha do Alemao vai acabar com o trafico, esta
     enganado\", afirma escritor
     Carlos Amorim contesta a onda otimista desencadeada pelas recentes
     ac,oes policiais no Rio de Janeiro

  29/11/2010 -
  http://www.clicrbs.com.br/diariocatarinense/jsp/default.jsp?uf=2&section=Geral&newsID=a3124725.htm

     Um dos maiores especialistas no estudo de facc,oes criminosas e crime
     organizado no pais, o escritor Carlos Amorim contesta a onda otimista
     desencadeada pelas recentes ac,oes policiais no Rio de Janeiro. Autor de
     tres livros sobre o tema (Comando Vermelho * a historia secreta do crime
     organizado, Ed. Record, 1994, ganhador do Jabuti do mesmo ano; CV-PCC -
     A irmandade do crime, 2004; e O Assalto ao Poder, 2010), o jornalista,
     que dedicou mais da metade de sua vida a pesquisar a criminalidade no
     Brasil, afirma que combater os traficantes das favelas e apenas parte de
     um processo mais complexo.

     * Quem acha que a batalha do Alemao vai acabar com o trafico ou o crime,
     esta enganado. O Comando Vermelho ocupava aquela area ha quase 30 anos,
     inclusive com hoteis para receber seus fornecedores estrangeiros e seus
     socios do PCC. Quanto tempo os militares ficarao por la? Nossos
     governantes nem sabem direito o que e crime organizado. Os chefes do
     trafico de drogas e de armas, da pirataria e do contrabando, nao moram
     em favelas e nao serao presos.

     O escritor tambem questiona a falta de atenc,ao do governo do Rio `as
     milicias e `a corrupc,ao policial.

     * Por que o governador Sergio Cabral nao aproveitou a ofensiva contra o
     crime organizado para atacar tambem as milicias, que ocupam quase cem
     favelas na cidade? Esses grupos paramilitares agem como forc,as
     auxiliares da policia. Por que nao aproveitou o momento de mobilizac,ao
     para anunciar um plano de reforma do aparelho policial e combate `a
     corrupc,ao entre as forc,as da lei? Estava na hora de fazer tudo isso?
     Nao! Essa hora ja passou ha muito tempo! Depois do calor das emoc,oes,
     tudo isso escorrega para o silencio.

     Em site especial, entenda o caso:

     Amorim aposta que os ataques da semana passada nao sao apenas uma
     represalia `a instalac,ao das Unidades de Policia Pacificadora (UPPs) no
     RJ. Na sua avaliac,ao, os incendios podem ter sido motivados pela
     transferencia de lideranc,as da facc,ao para presidios em outros
     Estados, alem de servir como moeda de troca para uma eventual tregua
     durante a Copa do Mundo e as Olimpiadas.

     * A explicac,ao oficial e de que eles estavam perdendo territorios para
     as Unidades de Policia Pacificadora (UPPs). Dificil de acreditar, porque
     essas unidades existem apenas em 12 (agora 13) das mais de mil favelas
     cariocas, uma gota no oceano. Em todos os levantes do crime organizado,
     ha sempre uma pauta de reivindicac,oes. Essas reivindicac,oes nao saem
     na midia e sao tratadas discretamente entre criminosos e autoridades.
     Foi assim nos ataques do Comando Vermelho nos anos 1980 e 1990, quando
     os criminosos orquestravam rebelioes sangrentas e metralhavam predios
     publicos no Rio de Janeiro. Nesse periodo, o governador Moreira Franco
     sofreu dois atentados `a bala, escapando por pouco. Essas ac,oes foram
     planejadas. E qual era a pauta de reivindicac,oes? O fim do isolamento
     das lideranc,as da organizac,ao no recem criado presidio de seguranc,a
     maxima de Bangu Um. * detalha.

     Apesar de as autoridades gauchas negarem que a violencia no Estado possa
     se equiparar ao Rio de Janeiro, o escritor tem uma visao mais pessimista
     sobre o tema.

     * O crime organizado esta presente em todo o pais, inclusive no Rio
     Grande do Sul. Nas cadeias, impera a vontade e a ideologia das
     organizac,oes criminosas. As rotas do trafico se estendem sobre o sul do
     Brasil, com vistas `a Argentina e ao Uruguai, e, dai, para a Africa e
     Europa. O numero de apreensoes de drogas e de pessoas envolvidas com o
     trafico no Sul so faz aumentar a cada ano. O Sul virou uma rota
     alternativa, fugindo da pressao repressiva no Sudeste. Infelizmente, a
     ac,ao dos bandidos so pode ser medida em escalas nacional e
     internacional * finaliza.

     On 12/7/2010 1:00 PM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

       This dude is a Prof at Universidade Rural do Rio de Janeiro and is a
       sociologist.  Interesting interview and analysis of the situation.  If
       between google translate and the Portguese there's still a desire for
       a more detailed summary let me know and we can pull one together
       later.

       Uma guerra pela regeografizac,ao do Rio de Janeiro. Entrevista 
       especial com Jose Claudio Alves                                
       Texto publicado em 01 de Dezembro de 2010 - 16h07              
         http://www.portogente.com.br/texto.php?cod=36709             
                                                                      
       *O que esta por tras desses conflitos urbanos e uma            
       reconfigurac,ao da geopolitica do crime na cidade*. Assim      
       descreve o sociologo Jose Claudio Souza Alves a motivac,ao     
       principal dos conflitos que estao se dando entre traficantes e 
       a policia do Rio de Janeiro. Na entrevista a seguir, concedida 
       `a IHU On-Line por telefone, o professor analisa a composic,ao 
       geografica do conflito e reflete as estrategias de             
       reorganizac,ao das facc,oes e milicias durante esses embates.  
       *A midia nos faz crer * sobretudo a Rede Globo esta empenhada  
       nisso * que ha uma luta entre o bem e o mal. O bem e a         
       seguranc,a publica e a policia do Rio de Janeiro e o mal sao   
       os traficantes que estao sendo combatidos. Na verdade, isso e  
       uma falacia. Nao existe essa realidade. O que existe e essa    
       reorganizac,ao da estrutura do crime*, explica.                
                                                                      
       Jose Claudio Souza Alves e graduado em Estudos Sociais pela    
       Fundac,ao Educacional de Brusque. E mestre em sociologia pela  
       Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro e doutor,   
       na mesma area, pela Universidade de Sao Paulo. Atualmente, e   
       professor na Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro      
       e membro do Iser Assessoria..                                  
                                                                      
       Confira a entrevista.                                          
                                                                      
       IHU On-Line * O que esta por tras desses conflitos atuais no   
       Rio de Janeiro?                                                
                                                                      
       Jose Claudio Alves * O que esta por tras desses conflitos      
       urbanos e uma reconfigurac,ao da geopolitica do crime na       
       cidade. Isso ja vem se dando ha algum tempo e culminou na      
       situac,ao que estamos vivendo atualmente. Ha elementos         
       presentes nesse conflito que vem de periodos maiores da        
       historia do Rio de Janeiro, um deles e o surgimento das        
       milicias que nada mais sao do que estruturas de violencia      
       construidas a partir do aparato policial de forma mais         
       explicita. Elas, portanto, controlarao varias favelas do RJ e  
       serao inseridas no processo de expulsao do Comando Vermelho e  
       pelo fortalecimento de uma outra facc,ao chamada Terceiro      
       Comando. Ha uma terceira facc,ao chamada Ada, que e um         
       desdobramento do Comando Vermelho e que opera nos confrontos   
       que vao ocorrer junto a essa primeira facc,ao em determinadas  
       areas. Na verdade, o Comando Vermelho foi se transformando num 
       segmento que esta perdendo sua hegemonia sobre a organizac,ao  
       do crime no Rio de Janeiro. Quem esta avanc,ando, ao longo do  
       tempo, sao as milicias em articulac,ao com o Terceiro Comando. 
                                                                      
       Um elemento determinante nessa reconfigurac,ao foi o           
       surgimento das UPPs a partir de uma politica de ocupac,ao de   
       determinadas favelas, sobretudo da zona sul do RJ. Seus        
       interesses estao voltados para a questao do capital do         
       turismo, industrial, comercial, terceiro setor, ou seja, o     
       capital que estara envolvido nas Olimpiadas. Entao, a expulsao 
       das favelas cariocas feita pelas UPPs ocorre em cima do        
       segmento do Comando Vermelho. Por isso, o que esta acontecendo 
       agora e um rearranjo dessa estrutura. O Comando Vermelho esta  
       indo agora para um confronto que aterroriza a populac,ao para  
       que um novo acordo se estabelec,a em relac,ao a areas e        
       espac,os para que esse segmento se estabelec,a e sobreviva.    
                                                                      
       IHU On-Line * Mas, entao, o que esta em jogo?                  
                                                                      
       Jose Claudio Alves * Nao esta em jogo a destruic,ao da         
       estrutura do crime, ela esta se rearranjando apenas. Nesse     
       rearranjo quem vai se sobressair sao, sobretudo, as milicias,  
       o Terceiro Comando * que vem crescendo junto e operando com as 
       milicias * e a politica de seguranc,a do Estado calcada nas    
       UPPs * que nao alteraram a relac,ao com o trafico de drogas. A 
       midia nos faz crer * sobretudo a Rede Globo esta empenhada     
       nisso * que ha uma luta entre o bem e o mal. O bem e a         
       seguranc,a publica e a policia do Rio de Janeiro e o mal sao   
       os traficantes que estao sendo combatidos. Na verdade, isso e  
       uma falacia. Nao existe essa realidade. O que existe e essa    
       reorganizac,ao da estrutura do crime.                          
                                                                      
       A realidade do RJ exige hoje uma analise muito profunda e      
       complexa e nao essa espetacularizac,ao midiatica, que tem um   
       objetivo: escorrac,ar um segmento do crime organizado e        
       favorecer a constelac,ao de outra composic,ao hegemonica do    
       crime no RJ.                                                   
                                                                      
       IHU On-Line * Por que esse confronto nasceu na Vila Cruzeiro?  
                                                                      
       Jose Claudio Alves * Porque a partir dessa reconfigurac,ao que 
       foi sendo feita das milicias e das UPPs (Unidades de           
       Policiamento Pacificadoras), o Comando Vermelho comec,ou a     
       estabelecer uma base operacional muito forte no Complexo do    
       Alemao. Este lugar envolve um conjunto de favelas com um       
       conjunto de entradas e saidas. O centro desse complexo e       
       constituido de areas abertas que sao remanescentes de matas.   
       Essa estruturac,ao geografica e paisagistica daquela regiao    
       favoreceu muito a presenc,a do Comando Vermelho la. Mas se     
       observarmos todas as operac,oes, veremos que elas estao        
       seguindo o eixo da Central do Brasil e Leopoldina, que sao     
       dois eixos ferroviarios que conectam o centro do RJ ao         
       suburbio e `a Baixada Fluminense. Todos os confrontos estao    
       ocorrendo nesse eixo.                                          
                                                                      
       IHU On-Line * Por que nesse eixo, em especifico?               
                                                                      
       Jose Claudio Alves * Porque, ao longo desse eixo, ha varias    
       comunidades que ainda pertencem ao Comando Vermelho. Nao tao   
       fortemente estruturadas, nao de forma organizada como no       
       Complexo do Alemao, mas sao comunidades que permanecem como    
       nucleos que sao facilmente articulados. Por exemplo: a favela  
       de Vigario Geral foi tomada pelo Terceiro Comando porque hoje  
       as milicias controlam essa favela e a de Parada de Lucas a     
       alugam para o Terceiro Comando. Mas ao lado, cerca de dois     
       quilometros de distancia dessa favela, existe uma menor que e  
       a favela de Furquim Mendes, controlada pelo Comando Vermelho.  
       Logo, as operac,oes que estao ocorrendo agora em Vigario       
       Geral, Jardim America e em Duque de Caxias estao tendo um      
       nucleo de operac,ao a partir de Furquim Mendes. O objetivo     
       maior e, portanto, desmobilizar e rearranjar essa              
       configurac,ao favorecendo novamente o Comando Vermelho.        
                                                                      
       Entao, o combate no Complexo do Alemao e meramente simbolico   
       nessa disputa. Por isso, invadir o Complexo do Alemao nao vai  
       acabar com o trafico no Rio de Janeiro. Ha varios pontos onde  
       as milicias e as diferentes facc,oes estao instaladas. O mais  
       drastico e que quem vai morrer nesse confronto e a populac,ao  
       civil e inocente, que nao tem acesso `a comunicac,ao, saude,   
       luz... Ha todo um drama social que essa populac,ao vai ser     
       submetida de forma injusta, arbitraria, ignorante, estupida,   
       meramente voltada aos interesses midiaticos, de venda de       
       imagens e para os interesses de um projeto de politica de      
       seguranc,a publica que ressalta a execuc,ao sumaria. No Rio de 
       Janeiro a execuc,ao sumaria foi elevada `a categoria de        
       politica publica pelo atual governo.                           
                                                                      
       IHU On-Line * Em que contexto geografico esta localizado a     
       Vila Cruzeiro?                                                 
                                                                      
       Jose Claudio Alves * A Vila Cruzeiro esta localizada no que    
       nos chamamos de zona da Leopoldina. Ela esta ao pe do Complexo 
       do Alemao, so que na face que esse complexo tem voltada para a 
       Penha. A Penha e um bairro da Leopoldina. Essa regiao da       
       Leopoldina se constituiu no eixo da estrada de ferro           
       Leopoldina, que comec,a na Central do Brasil, passa por Sao    
       Cristovao e dali vai seguir por Bom Sucesso, Penha, Olaria,    
       Vigario Geral * que e onde eu moro e que e a ultima parada da  
       Leopoldina e ai se entra na Baixada Fluminense com a estac,ao  
       de Duque de Caxias.                                            
                                                                      
       Esse *corredor* foi um dos maiores eixos de favelizac,ao da    
       cidade do Rio de Janeiro. A favelizac,ao que, inicialmente,    
       ocorre na zona sul nao encontra a possibilidade de adensamento 
       maior. Ela fica restrita a algumas favelas. Tirando a da       
       Rocinha, que e a maior do Rio de Janeiro, os outros complexos  
       todos * como o da Mare e do Alemao * estao localizados no eixo 
       da zona da Leopoldina ate Avenida Brasil. A Leopoldina e de    
       1887-1888, ja a Avenida Brasil e de 1946. E nesse prazo de     
       tempo que esse eixo se tornou o mais favelizado do RJ. Logo, a 
       Vila Cruzeiro e apenas uma das faces do Complexo do Alemao e e 
       a de maior facilidade para a entrada da policia, onde se pode  
       fazer operac,oes de grande porte como foi feita na             
       quinta-feira, dia 25-11. No entanto, isso nao expressa o       
       Complexo do Alemao em si.                                      
                                                                      
       A Mare fica do outro lado da Avenida Brasil. Ela tem quase 200 
       mil habitantes. Uma parte dela pertence ao Comando Vermelho, a 
       outra parte e do Terceiro Comando. Por que nao se faz nenhuma  
       operac,ao num complexo tao grande ou maior do que o do Alemao? 
       Ninguem cita isso! Por que nao se entra nas favelas onde os o  
       Terceiro Comando esta operando? Porque o Terceiro Comando ja   
       tem acordo com as milicias e com a politica de seguranc,a. Por 
       isso, as atuac,oes se dao em cima de uma das faces mais        
       frageis do Complexo do Alemao, como se isso fosse alguma coisa 
       significativa.                                                 
                                                                      
       IHU On-Line * Estando a Vila Cruzeiro numa das faces do        
       Complexo, por que o Alemao se tornou o reduto de fuga dos      
       traficantes?                                                   
                                                                      
       Jose Claudio Alves * A estrutura dele e muito mais complexa    
       para que se fac,a qualquer tipo de operac,ao la. Ha facilidade 
       de fuga, porque ha varias faces de saida. Nao e uma favela que 
       a policia consegue cercar. Mesmo juntando a policia do RJ      
       inteiro e o Exercito Nacional jamais se conseguiria cercar o   
       complexo. O Alemao e muito maior do que se possa imaginar.     
       Entao, e uma area que permite a reorganizac,ao e               
       reestruturac,ao do Comando Vermelho. Mas existem varias outras 
       bases do Comando Vermelho pulverizadas em toda a area da       
       Leopoldina e Central do Brasil que estao tambem operando.      
                                                                      
       Mesmo que se consiga ocupar todo o Complexo do Alemao, o       
       Comando Vermelho ainda tem possibilidades de reestruturac,ao   
       em outras pequenas areas. Ninguem fala, por exemplo, da        
       Baixada Fluminense, mas Duque de Caxias, Nova Iguac,u,         
       Mesquita, Belford Roxo sao areas que hoje estao sendo          
       reconfiguradas em termos de trafico de drogas a partir da ida  
       do Comando Vermelho para la.                                   
                                                                      
       Por exemplo, um bairro de Duque de Caxias chamado Olavo Bilac  
       e proximo de uma comunidade chamada Mangueirinha, que e um     
       morro. Essa comunidade ja e controlada pelo Comando Vermelho   
       que esta adensando a elevac,ao da Mangueirinha e Olavo Bilac   
       ja esta sentindo os efeitos diretos dessa reocupac,ao. Mas     
       ninguem esta falando nada sobre isso.                          
                                                                      
       A realidade do Rio de Janeiro e muito mais complexa do que se  
       possa imaginar. O Comando Vermelho, assim como outras facc,oes 
       e milicias, estabelece relac,ao direta com o aparato de        
       seguranc,a publica do Rio de Janeiro. Em todas essas areas ha  
       trafico de armas feito pela policia, em todas essas areas o    
       trafico de drogas permanece em func,ao de acordos com o        
       aparato policial.                                              
                                                                      
       IHU On-Line * Podemos comparar esses traficantes que estao     
       coordenando os conflitos no RJ com o PCC, de Sao Paulo?        
                                                                      
       Jose Claudio Alves * So podemos analisar a historia do Rio de  
       Janeiro, fazendo um retrospecto da historia e da geografia. O  
       PCC, em Sao Paulo, tem uma trajetoria muito diferente das      
       facc,oes do Rio de Janeiro, tanto que a estrutura do PCC se da 
       dentro dos presidios. Quando a midia noticia que os            
       traficantes no Rio de Janeiro presos estao operando os         
       conflitos, leia-se, por tras disso, que a estrutura            
       penitenciaria do Estado se transformou na estrutura            
       organizacional do crime. Nao estou dizendo que o Estado foi    
       corrompido. Estou dizendo que o proprio estado em si e o       
       crime. O mercado e o Estado sao os grandes problemas da        
       sociedade brasileira. O mercado de drogas, articulado com o    
       mercado de seguranc,a publica, com o mercado de trafico de     
       drogas, de roubo, com o proprio sistema financeiro brasileiro, 
       e quem tem interesse em perpetuar tudo isso.                   
                                                                      
       A articulac,ao entre economia formal, economia criminosa e     
       aparato estatal se da em Sao Paulo de uma forma diferente em   
       relac,ao ao Rio de Janeiro. Expulsar o Comando Vermelho dessas 
       areas interessa `a manutenc,ao economica do capital. O que ha  
       de semelhanc,a sao as operac,oes de terror, operac,oes de      
       confronto aberto dentro da cidade para reestruturar o crime e  
       reorganiza-lo em patamares mais favoraveis ao segmento que     
       esta ganhando ou perdendo.                                     
                                                                      
       IHU On-Line * Como o senhor avalia essa politica de            
       instalac,ao das UPPs * Unidades de Policiamento Pacificadoras  
       nas favelas do Rio de Janeiro?                                 
                                                                      
       Jose Claudio Alves * E uma politica midiatica de visibilidade  
       de seguranc,a no Rio de Janeiro e Brasil. A presidente eleita  
       quase transformou as UPPs na politica de seguranc,a publica do 
       pais e quer reproduzir as UPPs em todo o Brasil. A UPP e uma   
       grande farsa. Nas favelas ocupadas pelas UPSs podem ser        
       encontrados ex-traficantes que continuam operando, mas com     
       menos intensidade. A desigualdade social permanece, assim como 
       o nao acesso `a saude, educac,ao, propriedade da terra,        
       transporte. A policia esta la para garantir o nao tiroteio,    
       mas isso nao garante a nao existencia de crimes. A meu ver,    
       ate agora, as UPPs sao apenas formas de fachada de uma         
       politica de seguranc,a e economica de grupos de capitais       
       dominantes na cidade para estabelecer um novo projeto e        
       reconfigurac,ao dessa estrutura.                               
                                                                      
       IHU On-Line * A tensao no Rio de Janeiro, neste momento, e     
       diferente de outros momentos de conflito entre policia e       
       traficantes?                                                   
                                                                      
       Jose Claudio Alves * Sim, porque a dimensao e mais ampla, mais 
       aberta. Dizer que eles estao operando de forma desarticulada,  
       desesperada, desorganizada e uma mentira. A estrutura que o    
       Comando Vermelho organiza vem sendo elaborada ha mais de cinco 
       anos e ela tem sido, agora, colocada em pratica de uma forma   
       muito mais intensa do que jamais foi visto.                    
                                                                      
       A grande questao e saber o que se opera no fundo imaginario e  
       simbolico que esta sendo construido de quem sao, de fato, os   
       inimigos da sociedade fluminense e brasileira. Essa questao    
       vai ter efeitos muito mais venosos para a sociedade            
       empobrecida e favelizada. E isso que esta em jogo agora.       
","2010-12-07 20:13:04",1,"2012-08-02 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/865756_re-latam-brazil-interesting-interview-analysis-of-recent.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:latam@stratfor.com","latam@stratfor.com",""
866124,"Random Business Idea - Network Security
","   I'm sure this has been thought of before at STRATFOR so excuse the
   redundancy. I was reading a solid Forbes article on Assange and it said
   that a large number of deep pocket corporations were looking into
   leak-focused network security after these Wikileak episodes.

   I was wondering if it was possible for us to get some of that
   \"leak-focused\" gravy train. This is an obvious fear sale, so that's a good
   thing. And we have something to offer that the IT security companies
   don't, mainly our focus on counter-intelligence and surveillance that Fred
   and Stick know better than anyone on the planet.

   We do a lot of good work with all the personal/executive security analysis
   as well. Could we develop some ideas and procedures on the idea of
   \"leak-focused\" network security that focuses on preventing one's own
   employees from leaking sensitive information.

   The point here is that I am sure there are certain procedures and
   precautions that companies should employ that go beyond installing network
   security network to deal with potential leaks. In fact, Im not so sure
   this is an IT problem that requires an IT solution.

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-12-09 02:38:51",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/866124_random-business-idea-network-security-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
868821,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   yes, marc called them a mob - and that seems accurate

   On 10/24/11 1:33 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     Good point. 
     In terrorist terms they are more like grassroots people than AQ core. 
     From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
     Reply-To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:11:05 -0500
     To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
     Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They
     are a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
     online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do
     this in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people
     joining Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or
     something like that. 

     Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

     On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
       these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
       I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
       whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
       because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
       revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
       understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
       expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
       coercion.

       Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
       cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of
       el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication
       as a tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable
       intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels. That's a
       physical threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify
       that Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact
       to the cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival
       cartels or the GoM. They may release information on a given politician
       being linked to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the
       politician will feel an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a
       link, doesn't make it true). It would be up to others to take action. 
       I think the way you have it worded in the above sentence is good. 
       Follow with a sentence explaining the rest of it, because readers will
       have the same question Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat
       to cartels would come in what information anonymous could expose that
       is useful to their enemies'

       Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
       activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to
       conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how
       much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
       vulnerability I have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't
       have specific examples which could be used in assessing their
       vulnerability online.

       by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
       arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
       should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
       politicians as colluding.
       On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
         possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
         Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using
         the banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
         cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
         find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
         being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico
         and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
         posting flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the
         Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is
         good and will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a
         quick explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding
         something in the explaining the flyers will work]

         Link: themeData
         Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
         denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate
         websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
         statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
         depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
         October 10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold
         threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
         releasing identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they specify
         whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
          What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
         group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
         face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
         their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
         potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
         presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational
         criminal organization, it's not really unique.  Many such
         organizations do their crimes online, and have been hacked in
         response--like the nigerian princess scams. I think you should just
         say it's a unique threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out
         at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels
         dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
         threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a
         gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for
         the using publication as a tool to force government action. If you
         reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it against
         the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
         media
              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
         at cartels

         While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
         threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

                 -The threat is in the information they can expose that may
     be of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or
     other cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but
     i could imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the
     public).

              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
         identifiable information on cartel members 
              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
         cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
         section/paragraph]
              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
         identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
         the realm of possibilities for
                     Anonymous
                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
         illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels
         are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We
         don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
         operational vulnerability

        -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
     (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
     cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
     replaceable. 
                 -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents
     have access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any
     sort of existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

         Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
         world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that
         some of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to
         the violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is
         there are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems
         very possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have
         joined up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of
         cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other
         countries may act with confidence when sitting in front of a
         computer, but this may blind them to any possible retribution. They
         may not even know the impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the
         part below and above is written rather normatively.  We need to take
         that out.  just state the facts]
              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
         will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
         individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
         drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
         halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not have
         a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
         Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
         consequences from this. by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you
         mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens all
         the time.
              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
         are willing to go protect their operations.
                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                 o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
         community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
         them.
                 o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
         discovering hackers within Mexico.
         need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply
         publishing tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the
         same camp as the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that
         their damage will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can
         do--limited.  But maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are
         no longer challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

          

         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
           there are several issues to address and fix here.

           These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
           discussion:

                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
           we can't gloss over that fact
                o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
           between stealing bank records from government computers and
           overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
           information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
           kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
           politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
           going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
           killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
           operational details, because they acted as informants, because
           they exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied
           the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is
           damaging to the cartels themselves?
                o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
           realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure
           of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for
           the technical ability by a very small number of its members to
           infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information.
           Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that
           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
           information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
           of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
           consequences of dissemination.
                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
           back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings
           done by people who may not understand the difference between an
           anon hacker and a blogger.

           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                 From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
             Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                   To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

             you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
             lot more work

             You need to lay out:

             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
             is unclear
             b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
             therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
             d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
             who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

             I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
             insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
             levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
             the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
             is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
             business online, in a protected fashion.

             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
             c: 512.750.7234
             STRATFOR
             www.stratfor.com
             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             Link: themeData

             Trigger

             Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
             Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
             out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
             denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
             depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
             exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
             makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
             releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
             politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
             The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
             member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
             between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
             unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
             operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
             Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
             believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
             not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience
             with hackers.

              

             In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned
             as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
             demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned
             right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening
             to hit back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
             guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous'
             claims of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
             operations are true, cartels will likely respond with violence
             against individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you
             mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
             disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the
             GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
             don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
             Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
             against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
             continue their threats against any individual using online media
             WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about
             bloggers here. against the cartels.

              

             The Battle Space

             Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
             realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
             of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
             geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
             exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
             are physical people tho live in the real world. They have names
             and addresses - although most of them are likely outside of MX.)
              Anonymous' power base consists of their technical capabilities
             in hacking. Any information connected to the Internet is
             vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of
             individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population
             could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
             has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
             company with a website that brings in revenue, but it does not
             really matter if you don't run operations on the web. Los Z
             don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far less
             dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

             Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
             base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
             believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
             through the internet. This gives an opening for people
             disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
             dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
             Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
             themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious IT
             capability. 

             The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
             from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

             The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
             Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
             maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
             commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
             and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight.
             There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
             capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
             and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
             experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
             always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
             While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
             Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
             the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media
             outlets. Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to
             cover details of their operations. ok... but that's kind of a
             red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus on the
             possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
             have no cyber presence.

              

             Anonymous' Weapons

             Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
             criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
             combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
             disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
             anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites in
             Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
             admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
             guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
             campaign by technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
             should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream media
             outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
             operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
             bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed
             with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a
             blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce cartels
             on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
             really addressing the subheading

             As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
             risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
             Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
             release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
             Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
             individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
             information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
             Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
             considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
             compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
             networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence
             collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to
             say here? This isn't clear at all

              

             Cartel's Defense

                         A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
             yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
             member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
             threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
             response? also this undermines your statements above about how
             Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
             vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
             Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you
             some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
             Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
             cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed
             for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
             dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and
             we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
             disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can
             operate in any region of the world. Personal information
             including locations is only available if a hacker chooses to
             divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
             figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels
             are only capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can
             physically reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of
             their own under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
             Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                         Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
             Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
             help of computer science majors through personal threats has
             been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
             Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
             trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
             experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
             identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
             is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
             operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such
             as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources
             than cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations.
             A) How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
             kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are
             equally difficult to track down

                         In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
             likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with,
             brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
             operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they
             wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
             communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
             members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
             likely continue to be used to scare online media into submission
             i'm not really seeing the online media-international hacking
             group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
             inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
             encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel
             violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to be
             seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
             the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff
             and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
             inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 20:39:58",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/868821_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
868970,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   Brown

   On 10/24/11 11:50 AM, Morgan Kauffman wrote:

     If you're going to cover the vigilante/robin-hood aspect, I found this
     in today's sweeps: 
     http://arstechnica.com/business/news/2011/10/anonymous-takes-down-darknet-child-porn-site-on-tor-network.ars?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss
     and 
     http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2395175,00.asp#fbid=KvMufY_Mq3a

     They've got a sub-group that tries to hunt down child-abuse sites and
     users - last week they published a list of 1500 names of visitors to one
     site, in addition to performing a couple of DDoS attacks to the server.

     On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

       Link: themeData

       I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
       broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
       almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
       Reviewing their list of attacks
       (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of the
       cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the internet
       . The interesting thing when it comes to their interactions with the
       cartels is the dubious role they play: at the same time they can be
       fighting crime by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can
       also put lives in risk.

       However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by Anonymous.
       The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can conduct a cyber
       attack under \"Anonymous\" is worrisome.
       (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

       If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government websites,
       or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know more about these
       guys. Who they are? What are they interested in? How they operate? Who
       they have targeted so far? How can I defend myself from them? In what
       countries are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
       them to achieve any particular goal?

       On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can
         build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to
         innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing
         on journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the
         situation.  This has long term implications in not just Mexico. 
         They don't consider the consequences of their actions and they act
         without understanding the environment.  It was the same when they
         released information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
         Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
           possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
           Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by Anonymous,
           threatens revealing personal information on cartels as well as
           states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
           outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped.
           According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous
           Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers in
           Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although
           that is speculation.

           Link: themeData
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
           denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
           individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
           most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
           the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
           identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists
           who collude with criminal cartels. No mention of banks that accept
           their laundered money? That is when they would be a threat to
           their bottom line. They can always buy cabbies, cops, politicos
           and journos but tracing banks.  The hacker group demanded Los
           Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
           consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
           was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
           their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
           potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and
           hackers, presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
           lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting
           on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

           What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
           threat to Mexican cartels.
                o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
           media
                o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash
           out at cartels

           While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
           threat
                o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
           identifiable information on cartel members
                o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire
           on cartels
                o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
           communications, identifiable information on cartels members have
           to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                       Anonymous
                       o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
           illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

           Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
           ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result,
           their understanding of cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous
           may act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but
           this may blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even
           know the impact of any online assault of cartels.
                o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
           will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
           individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
           drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
           halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not
           have a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
           Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
           Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
           consequences from this.
                o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
           are willing to go protect their operations.
                   o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                   o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
           community before, coercing computer science majors into working
           for them.
                   o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
           discovering hackers within Mexico.

            

           On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

             Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
             there are several issues to address and fix here.

             These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
             discussion:

                  o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine
             but we can't gloss over that fact
                  o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
             between stealing bank records from government computers and
             overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                  o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
             information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
             kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
             talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
             politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
             going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
             killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
             operational details, because they acted as informants, because
             they exposed links with officials or because they somehow
             sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
             information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                  o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
             realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a
             measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity
             except for the technical ability by a very small number of its
             members to infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
             information. Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on
             a network that is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
             Where else could information be found? Government databases?
             Once we know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
             know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                  o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
             trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
             killings done by people who may not understand the difference
             between an anon hacker and a blogger.

             On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

               wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                   Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                   From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
               Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                     To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

               you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need
               a lot more work

               You need to lay out:

               a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
               section is unclear
               b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
               therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
               c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
               anything
               d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
               anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

               I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
               insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
               levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
               the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
               is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
               business online, in a protected fashion.

               Karen Hooper
               Latin America Analyst
               o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
               c: 512.750.7234
               STRATFOR
               www.stratfor.com
               On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

               On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Link: themeData

               Trigger

               Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
               lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
               denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
               released depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
               screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels.
               Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican? American?
               taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude
               with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
               release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
               The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels
               and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
               cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los
               Zetas leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
               little experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
               experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
               that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                

               In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
               mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
               their demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be
               mentioned right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
               threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so we
               understand who this guy is and why/how he was abducted. are
               not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
               information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
               will likely respond with violence against individuals revealed
               as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?.
               It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who
               collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving
               the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
               means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
               effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
               Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
               their threats against any individual using online media WC....
               you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers
               here. against the cartels.

                

               The Battle Space

               Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
               realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
               of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
               geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
               exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
               are physical people tho live in the real world. They have
               names and addresses - although most of them are likely outside
               of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their technical
               capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
               Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
               the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's
               population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
               what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
               Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
               revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run
               operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
               e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than
               the jihadists.)

               Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
               base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
               believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
               through the internet. This gives an opening for people
               disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
               dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience =
               troll. Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
               themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious IT
               capability. 

               The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
               been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

               The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US
               and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking
               to maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
               commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
               and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from
               insight. There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't
               have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
               amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels
               like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of
               threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel
               on cartel violence. While battling each other, cartels still
               face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
               avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
               have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
               bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok...
               but that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need
               to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't
               just assume they have no cyber presence.

                

               Anonymous' Weapons

               Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
               criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability
               to combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
               disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
               anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites
               in Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
               admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
               guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
               campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
               overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main
               stream media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
               to their operations, that they have continued to target
               journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
               Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
               the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
               denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
               here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

               As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
               risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to
               suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing information they
               threaten to release. By releasing identities of individuals
               cooperating with Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life
               of those individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
               sensitive information is limited by what is available via the
               Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
               should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
               However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
               governments computer networks, information available to
               Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire. 
               what are you trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                

               Cartel's Defense

                           A counter response to the video? by the cartels
               has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a
               kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun
               addressing the threat posed by hackers so... how has there not
               been a counter response? also this undermines your statements
               above about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
               underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How did
               they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very
               well give you some indication to the technical ability of the
               cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
               wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
               rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
               whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You
               can assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they are
               working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening
               cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
               information including locations is only available if a hacker
               chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy
               enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
               Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
               online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or
               start employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
               Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                           Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
               Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
               help of computer science majors through personal threats has
               been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported
               where?.  Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
               and drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of
               technical experts to help combat any threat by computer
               hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been
               demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of
               identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
               enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
               experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find
               hackers through investigations. A) How do you know they are
               not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm
               goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
               track down

                           In order to compete with an online foe, cartels
               will likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar
               with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
               operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they
               wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
               communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
               members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
               likely continue to be used to scare online media into
               submission i'm not really seeing the online
               media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
               manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
               hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life.
               Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of
               Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able to
               seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
               Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go on and
               shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

 --
 Sincerely,

 Marko Primorac
 Tactical Analyst
 marko.primorac@stratfor.com
 Tel: +1 512.744.4300
 Cell: +1 717.557.8480
","2011-10-24 18:59:47",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/868970_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","marko.primorac@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
870971,"RE: Random Business Idea - Network Security
","   I believe this is the article Marko is talking about.

    

   WikiLeaks' next target is big business, Assange says

   Andy Greenberg, Forbes.com

   Date: Wed. Dec. 1 2010 7:39 PM ET

   http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/World/20101201/forbes-assange-interview-101201/

    

   In a rare interview, Assange tells Forbes that the release of Pentagon and
   State Department documents are just the beginning. His next target: big
   business.

    

   Early next year, Julian Assange says, a major American bank will suddenly
   find itself turned inside out. Tens of thousands of its internal documents
   will be exposed on Wikileaks.org with no polite requests for executives'
   response or other forewarnings. The data dump will lay bare the finance
   firm's secrets on the Web for every customer, every competitor, every
   regulator to examine and pass judgment on.

    

   When? Which bank? What documents? Cagey as always, Assange won't say, so
   his claim is impossible to verify. But he has always followed through on
   his threats. Sitting for a rare interview in a London garden flat on a
   rainy November day, he compares what he is ready to unleash to the damning
   e-mails that poured out of the Enron trial: a comprehensive vivisection of
   corporate bad behavior. \"You could call it the ecosystem of corruption,\"
   he says, refusing to characterize the coming release in more detail. \"But
   it's also all the regular decision making that turns a blind eye to and
   supports unethical practices: the oversight that's not done, the
   priorities of executives, how they think they're fulfilling their own
   self-interest.\"

    

   This is Assange: a moral ideologue, a champion of openness, a control
   freak. He pauses to think-a process that occasionally puts our
   conversation on hold for awkwardly long interludes. The slim 39-year-old
   WikiLeaks founder wears a navy suit over his 6-foot-2 frame, and his once
   shaggy white hair, recently dyed brown, has been cropped to a sandy
   patchwork of blonde and tan. He says he colors it when he's \"being
   tracked.\"

    

   \"These big-package releases. There should be a cute name for them,\" he
   says, then pauses again.

    

   \"Megaleaks?\" I suggest, trying to move things along.

    

   \"Yes, that's good-megaleaks.\" His voice is a hoarse, Aussie-tinged
   baritone. As a teenage hacker in Melbourne its pitch helped him
   impersonate IT staff to trick companies' employees into revealing their
   passwords over the phone, and today it's deeper still after a recent bout
   of flu. \"These megaleaks . . . they're an important phenomenon. And
   they're only going to increase.\"

    

   He'll see to that. By the time you're reading this another giant dump of
   classified U.S. documents may well be public. Assange refused to discuss
   the leak at the time FORBES went to press, but he claims it is part of a
   series that will have the greatest impact of any WikiLeaks release yet.
   Assange calls the shots: choosing the media outlets that splash his
   exposes, holding them to a strict embargo, running the leaks
   simultaneously on his site. Past megaleaks from his information insurgency
   over the last year have included 76,000 secret Afghan war documents and
   another trove of 392,000 files from the Iraq war. Those data explosions,
   the largest classified military security breaches in history, have roused
   antiwar activists and enraged the Pentagon.

    

   Admire Assange or revile him, he is the prophet of a coming age of
   involuntary transparency. Having exposed military misconduct on a grand
   scale, he is now gunning for corporate America. Does Assange have
   unpublished, damaging documents on pharmaceutical companies? Yes, he says.
   Finance? Yes, many more than the single bank scandal we've been
   discussing. Energy? Plenty, on everything from BP to an Albanian oil firm
   that he says attempted to sabotage its competitors' wells. Like
   informational IEDs, these damaging revelations can be detonated at will.

    

   Long gone are the days when Daniel Ellsberg had to photocopy thousands of
   Vietnam War documents to leak the Pentagon Papers. Modern whistleblowers,
   or employees with a grudge, can zip up their troves of incriminating
   documents on a laptop, USB stick or portable hard drive, spirit them out
   through personal e-mail accounts or online drop sites-or simply submit
   them directly to WikiLeaks.

    

   What do large companies think of the threat? If they're terrified, they're
   not saying. None would talk to us. Nor would the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
   WikiLeaks \"is high profile, legally insulated and transnational,\" says
   former Commerce Department official James Lewis, who follows cybersecurity
   for the Center for Strategic & International Studies. \"That adds up to a
   reputational risk that companies didn't have to think about a year ago.\"

    

   Already U.S. laws wrapped into financial reform this year expand
   whistleblower incentives to offer six- and seven-digit rewards to staffers
   in any industry who report malfeasance. WikiLeaks adds another, new form
   of corporate data breach: It offers the conscience-stricken and vindictive
   alike a chance to publish documents largely unfiltered, without censors or
   personal repercussions, thanks to privacy and encryption technologies that
   make anonymity easier than ever before. WikiLeaks' technical and
   ideological example has inspired copycats from Africa to China and rallied
   transparency advocates to push for a new, legal promised land in the
   unlikely haven of Iceland. It's also fueling a race in the cybersecurity
   industry and in Washington to find technology that can plug information
   leaks once for all.

    

   Today Assange looks tired, his eyes narrowed and the skin beneath them
   puffy, as if he's unused to even England's gloomy daylight. He has no
   permanent home. \"We're like a traveling production company; everyone moves
   somewhere, and we put on a production,\" he sighs. \"We haven't had any rest
   since April.\" In Sweden, where many of the group's servers are based, a
   warrant has now been issued for his arrest on rape charges. He's denied
   the accusations, arguing they amount to smear tactics. He's also afraid to
   set foot in several other countries, including the U.S., fearing that
   officials will find reasons to detain him. No question that WikiLeaks
   would be in trouble if he were jailed: A spokeswoman says it has a
   \"contingency plan,\" but without Assange there is no public face.
   Meanwhile, his resources have been drained by defections from his
   organization; some old friends and associates have taken issue with his
   autocratic style.

    

   None of which has stopped him from picking new fights. The promised
   release of bank documents would be the largest assault by WikiLeaks on the
   corporate sector, and Assange says the business community should expect
   plenty of sequels. In early October the site shut down its
   document-submission system; Assange says it was receiving more information
   than it could find resources to publish, thousands of additions a day at
   some points. The total is more gigabytes of data than he can count. \"Our
   pipeline of leaks has been increasing exponentially as our profile rises,\"
   he says, drawing a curve upward in the air with one hand.

    

   If even a fraction of his claims are borne out, he's already sitting on a
   crypt of data any three-letter spy agency would kill for. The world's most
   vocal transparency advocate is now one of the world's biggest keepers of
   secrets. And about half of those revelations, says Assange, relate to the
   private sector.

    

   Over the last four years he has been so busy embarrassing various
   governments, from Washington to the corrupt Kenyan regime of Daniel arap
   Moi, that many forget the corporate scandals already on WikiLeaks' trophy
   wall. In January 2008 the site posted documents alleging that the Swiss
   bank Julius Baer hid clients' profits from even the Swiss government,
   concealing them in what seemed to be shell companies in the Cayman
   Islands. The bank filed a lawsuit against WikiLeaks for publishing data
   stolen from its clients. Baer later dropped the suit-but managed to stir
   up embarrassing publicity for itself. The next year WikiLeaks published
   documents from a pharma trade group implying that its lobbyists were
   receiving confidential documents from and exerting influence over a World
   Health Organization project to fund drug research in the developing world.
   The resulting attention helped crater the WHO project.

    

   In September 2009 commodities giant Trafigura filed an injunction that
   prevented British media from mentioning a damaging internal report. The
   memo showed the company had dumped tons of toxic waste in the Ivory Coast,
   chemicals that allegedly sickened 100,000 locals. But it couldn't stop
   WikiLeaks from publishing the information. Trafigura eventually paid more
   than $200 million in settlements.

    

   How can an American corporation respond to a Wiki attack? Lawsuits won't
   work: WikiLeaks is legally shielded in the U.S. by its role as a mere
   conduit for documents. Even if a company somehow won a judgment against
   WikiLeaks, that wouldn't shut it down. Assange spreads the site's assets
   over many countries. \"There's no single target to drop a bomb on,\" says
   Eric Goldman, a law professor at Santa Clara University.

    

   The best protection? With a dash of irony Icelandic WikiLeaks staffer
   Kristinn Hrafnsson suggests that companies change their ways to avoid
   targeting. \"They should resist the temptation to enter into corruption,\"
   he says. Don Tapscott, coauthor of The Naked Corporation (Free Press,
   2003), agrees. His simplistic conclusion: \"Open your own kimono. You're
   going to be naked. So you have to dig deep, look at your whole operation,
   make sure that integrity is part of your bones.\"

    

   Most corporations, instead, are turning to cybersecurity to shield their
   private parts. Despite dozens of calls to companies in tech, energy and
   finance, none wanted to talk about antileaking strategies. But a Forrester
   Research study found that about a quarter of companies in the U.S., the
   U.K., France, Germany and Canada were implementing leak-focused security
   software in 2010, and another third are considering that option. A study
   last year by the Ponemon Institute, a privacy-research consultancy in
   Traverse City, Mich., found that 60% of employees admit to taking
   sensitive data before they leave a company.

    

   *****

    

   Some of the more intriguing antileak work is being done by Uncle Sam. In
   an unmarked government building on the edge of a residential Arlington,
   Va. neighborhood, a cybersecurity researcher named Peiter Zatko shows just
   how easily leaks can occur. He lays out a blow-by-blow history of one
   insider data theft: The suspect searched broadly over the network to find
   anything related to critical infrastructure, then returned to manually
   probe a few interesting files. \"Then he walked away with enough
   information to shut down big chunks of the telephone systems in the United
   States,\" Zatko says matter-of-factly.

    

   Who was that shadowy data smuggler? \"That was me,\" says the 39-year-old
   researcher, giggling bashfully.

    

   Zatko is not your typical Department of Defense employee. Even in his new
   Beltway digs, he prefers to be called \"Mudge,\" the hacker handle he used
   during decades of exploring the dark corners of the Internet. Frank Heidt,
   a former security staffer at MCI and several military contractors, says
   that when he first read Zatko's exploit research in mid-1990s hacker
   zines, he thought that Mudge must be the pseudonym of a group. \"He was so
   prolific that I thought he couldn't be one person,\" Heidt says. In 1998,
   as part of the L0pht hacker think tank, Zatko testified in a congressional
   hearing that he and his friends could shut down the Internet in 30
   minutes.

    

   Since March Zatko has also been a lead cybersecurity researcher at the
   Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the mad-scientist wing of the
   Pentagon devoted to projects that occasionally result in breakthroughs
   like the Internet and GPS. Zatko's new pet project may be equally
   ambitious: He aims to rid the world of digital leaks.

    

   The telephone system theft case that Zatko dissected in a Darpa conference
   room was a test, demonstrating that anyone with access to a network could
   steal data without detection, despite the system's expensive security
   software. Now his challenge is to fix the problem. Since August he has led
   a project known as the Cyber Insider Threat, or Cinder. Like most Darpa
   initiatives it's an X-Prize-style open invitation for ideas; recipients
   typically get tens of millions of dollars in government funding.
   Thirty-five entrants, mostly tiny companies, have already publicly signed
   up, many more in secret. \"We're looking to everyone from academia to
   startups to large government contractors,\" says Zatko. \"We're not looking
   for evolutionary improvement. We want to pull the rug out from the problem
   altogether.\"

    

   It's a well-worn carpet. Since late 2007 every major security software
   vendor, from McAfee to Symantec to Trend Micro, has spent hundreds of
   millions of dollars to acquire companies in the so-called Data-Leak
   Prevention (DLP) industry-software designed to locate and tag sensitive
   information, and then guard against its escape at the edges of a firm's
   network.

    

   The problem: DLP doesn't work. Data is simply created too quickly, and
   moved around too often, for a mere filter to catch it, says Richard
   Stiennon, an analyst for security consultancy IT-Harvest, in Birmingham,
   Mich. \"For DLP to function, all the stars have to align,\" he says. \"This
   is a huge problem that can't be stopped with a single layer of
   infrastructure.\"

    

   More fashionable now is network forensics: the process of constantly
   collecting every fingerprint on a company's servers to trace an intruder
   or leaker after the fact-and, perhaps, deter the next one. That's a bit
   like fighting the next war according to the last one. Still, revenue at
   NetWitness, a prominent Herndon, Va. startup in that budding field, has
   leaped from $250,000 to $40 million since 2006. While the software
   generally gathers data and makes it easily available to queries, it
   doesn't pinpoint culprits. \"There's nothing in current technology that can
   do this in an automated fashion,\" says Shawn Carpenter, principal
   forensics analyst at NetWitness. \"You need a Columbo.\"

    

   Or, better yet, a robo-Columbo. Darpa's Zatko has been working on a system
   of automatically identifying what he calls \"malicious missions\": insider
   activity aimed at stealing data from inside a company's firewall, whether
   it's a Dell PC remotely hijacked by a Chinese cyberspy or Bradley
   Mannings, the U.S. soldier accused of leaking classified documents about
   combat in Afghanistan to WikiLeaks. Zatko's system would monitor networks
   in real-time for just the sort of data-stealing behavior he would perform
   himself: steps like scouring large areas of the network for a certain
   file, dumping piles of data to external storage hardware or sending
   encrypted files out over the Internet. No single episode would signal a
   leak; instead, the software would link acts in a probabilistic chain,
   triggering an alert only if a string of events points to purposeful data
   theft.

    

   Some of that leaky behavior isn't what a casual observer might expect.
   Consider the cyber footprints left by Robert Hanssen, a former FBI agent
   serving a life sentence in a Colorado supermax prison for selling
   intelligence to the Soviets over two decades. Every few days Hanssen would
   stop his normal activities and make a single query to a server across the
   network, a pattern he repeated for years. That server, Zatko says, held
   the counterintelligence database. Hanssen was searching for himself, a
   routine check to see if he'd finally been found out.

    

   \"You put all these things together into the different components of the
   mission,\" says Zatko. \"I'm looking for these new rhythms, new tells, new
   interrelations and requirements.\"

    

   Cinder wasn't created to combat WikiLeaks-in fact, it predates WikiLeaks'
   biggest military scandals. But Zatko has nonetheless found himself
   squarely in opposition to Assange's mission-a strange face-off, given that
   the two men once traveled in the same hacker circles, during the years
   when Assange went by the hacker handle Mendax (a Latin reference to the
   \"splendidly deceptive\" in the poet Horace's Odes) and reveled in accessing
   corporate and government systems without authorization. Neither will
   reveal much about their past encounters, but Assange says that they \"were
   in the same milieu.\" Asked about Assange, Zatko says only, \"I have very
   pleasant memories of those old days.\"

    

   WikiLeaks' founder, in fact, seems to have trouble accepting that Mudge is
   working for the other side. \"He's a clever guy, and he's also highly
   ethical,\" says Assange. \"I suspect he would have concerns about creating a
   system to conceal genuine abuses.\" He dismisses Cinder as just another
   system of digital censorship. And those systems, he says, will always
   fail, just as China's Great Firewall can't stop well-informed and
   determined dissident Internet users. \"Censorship might work for the
   average person but not for highly motivated people,\" Assange says. \"And
   our people are highly motivated.\"

    

   *****

    

   Shutting down WikiLeaks wouldn't stop the growing movement of transparency
   agitators. They now have a nation-size ally: Iceland. Since WikiLeaks
   scored a major scoop unearthing the corrupt loans that helped destroy that
   country's largest bank, the volcanic island is fast on its way to becoming
   the conduit for a global flood of leaks.

    

   It began when Kaupthing Bank collapsed in October 2008-a calamitous chain
   reaction that has strapped Iceland with $128 billion in debts, around
   $400,000 per capita. Ten months later Bogi Agustsson, a Walter
   Cronkite-ish anchor for Icelandic national broadcaster RUV, appeared on
   the evening news and explained that a legal injunction had prevented the
   station from airing a prepared expose on Kaupthing. Viewers who wanted to
   see the material, he suggested, should visit a site called Wikileaks.org.

    

   Those who took Agustsson's advice found a summary of Kaupthing's loan book
   posted on the site, detailing more than $6 billion funneled from
   Kaupthing's coffers to its own proprietors and companies they owned, often
   with little or no collateral; $900 million went to Olafur Olafsson, a
   major investor in Kaupthing who, on his birthday, flew in Elton John from
   England, along with a grand piano, for a one-hour concert. \"The banks had
   been eaten from the inside out,\" says Kristinn Hrafnsson, a former
   investigative reporter in Reykjavik who now works with WikiLeaks.

    

   A government investigation is still going on; no criminal charges have
   been filed. But WikiLeaks became a household name in Iceland. In December
   2009 Assange and Daniel Domscheit-Berg, a German who then worked with
   WikiLeaks, were invited to keynote a free-speech conference in Reykjavik.
   Their talk echoed an idea from American cyberlibertarian John Perry
   Barlow, calling for a \"Switzerland of bits.\" Iceland, with its independent
   spirit and recent taste of explosive whistle-blowing, they suggested,
   could become the digital doppelga:nger of a tax haven: a safe harbor for
   transparency, where it's open season on government and business
   secrets-and leakers are protected by law.

    

   The idea might have gone nowhere if not for Birgitta Jonsdottir. Assange's
   message captivated the 43-year-old poet and self-styled
   \"realist-anarchist.\" She wasn't just another idealistic protester with a
   goth wardrobe and hipster haircut. In the chaotic political environment
   that followed the national financial crisis, Jonsdottir had been elected
   to Iceland's parliament, the Althingi, in April 2009.

    

   Working with the country's transparency activists, she pulled together the
   Icelandic Modern Media Initiative, or Immi. The initiative would bring to
   Iceland all the source-protection, freedom of information and transparency
   laws from around the world and even set up a Nobel-style international
   award for work in the field of free expression. Jonsdottir pushed through
   a unanimous resolution to create a series of bills to implement Immi. They
   would also make Iceland the most friendly legal base for whistleblowers on
   Earth.

    

   Velkomin, as Icelanders would say, to Leakistan.

    

   \"The more that companies resist, the more information will get out about
   them,\" says Jonsdottir when we meet in Reykjavik's Hressingarskalinn cafe,
   around the corner from the parliament building. \"They can't hide anymore.
   The war is over. They lost.\" In Jonsdottir's vision Iceland will attract
   both mainstream media and WikiLeaks-like organizations to move their data
   to Iceland, enjoying legal protection, just as another firm might
   incorporate in a tax-sheltering island in the Caribbean.

    

   She may be getting a bit ahead of herself. Immi has yet to become law,
   though it has backing from powerful figures, including both Iceland's
   minister of justice and the head of its progressive party. Even if it
   does, Immi likely wouldn't offer much legal protection to organizations
   whose assets and staff aren't physically in the country; they could still
   be sued anywhere else in the world, given that their digital and print
   publications could appear globally. Immi could also face resistance from
   the U.S. and the EU-particularly when it comes to military matters. As
   Marc Thiessen, a conservative pundit, wrote on the blog of the American
   Enterprise Institute in August, \"Immi calls into question Iceland's
   seriousness as a NATO ally, and Iceland needs to realize there will be
   consequences for its actions.\" There could be a backlash for exposing
   corporate secrets, too. Alastair Mullis, a professor of law at East Anglia
   University in Britain, says, \"It's possible that Iceland will become the
   defamation capital of the world.\"

    

   Jonsdottir and fellow Immi creator Smari McCarthy are pushing ahead
   anyway. Immi, they say, doesn't fashion new laws; it cherry-picks existing
   statutes from around the world (source shields from Sweden, libel
   protection from New York State, protected communications with journalists
   from Belgium, among them). \"We're basing our legislation on laws that have
   already withstood attacks,\" says Jonsdottir. Defamation and other concerns
   like child pornography and copyright violations, she argues, would still
   be illegal in Iceland and wouldn't be sheltered.

    

   Nor is the idea to protect WikiLeaks itself, Jonsdottir points out. The
   site doesn't need help: Its data and submissions process are carefully
   encrypted, and its infrastructure is spread over enough
   countries-including some servers in a bombproof, underground bunker in
   Sweden-that taking it offline is already nearly impossible.

   Instead Immi would foster a new wave of media organizations and
   whistleblower outlets that don't rely on WikiLeaks' technical savvy or
   resources. Already a handful of smaller, leak-focused conduits-regional
   sites like Africa-focused SaharaReporters or Thaileaks.info-have published
   damning data. Immi's McCarthy says he's been approached by media
   organizations from Rwanda to Chechnya. German WikiLeaks staffer Daniel
   Domscheit-Berg, disgruntled with Assange's laser focus on infrequent
   megaleaks, has left the organization along with several others to create
   his own spinoff. \"In the end there must be a thousand WikiLeaks,\" he told
   Der Spiegel in September.

    

   Iceland certainly has the infrastructure for a lot of informational
   mischief. Half an hour outside Reykjavik, on a landscape that resembles
   Mars covered in snow, the Thor Data Center is preparing for an influx of
   bytes. By 2011 it hopes to have thousands of servers in its
   aluminum-plant-turned-server-farm, powered by ultracheap geothermal energy
   and cooled by free arctic air. Iceland's biggest Web host, ironically
   named 1984 Web Hosting, is excited about the boost Immi could give its
   business. \"I created this company to prevent thought control,\" says Mordur
   Ingolfsson, its chief executive. \"In my humble opinion, Immi is the most
   important thing to happen to this godforsaken island since the Sagas were
   written.\" (That's 600-plus years.)

    

   Jonsdottir agrees: \"WikiLeaks was an important icebreaker. It was the tip.
   Immi is the rest of the wedge, and it will open up everything.\" (She is
   less thrilled to learn that Assange speaks of Immi as his personal
   creation.)I ask Assange how he expects companies to cope with a world
   where hundreds of WikiLeak-alikes may soon exist. His three-part
   prescription is earnest-if a bit patronizing: \"Do things to encourage
   leaks from dishonest competitors. Be as open and honest as possible. Treat
   your employees well.\"

   He also wants to clear up a misunderstanding. Despite his revolutionary
   reputation, he's not antibusiness. He bristles at the media's focus on his
   teenage years as a computer hacker who broke into dozens of systems, from
   the Department of Defense to Nortel, and was eventually convicted on 25
   charges of computer fraud and fined thousands of dollars.

    

   Instead, he prefers to think of himself as an entrepreneur. He tells the
   story of a free-speech-focused Internet service provider he cofounded in
   1993, known as Suburbia. It was, to hear him tell it, the blueprint for
   WikiLeaks-in one instance, when the Church of Scientology demanded to know
   who had posted antichurch information on one site, he refused to help.
   (\"He has titanium balls,\" says David Gerard, that site's creator.) \"I saw
   it early on, without realizing it: potentiating people to reveal their
   information, creating a conduit,\" Assange says. \"Without having any other
   robust publisher in the market, people came to us.\"

    

   Leaks merely lubricate the free market, he says, settling into the couch
   and clearly enjoying giving me a lecture on economics. (Later, as a
   45-minute interview pushes into two hours, he ignores his handler, who
   keeps urging him to leave for his next appointment.) He cites the example
   of the Chinese Sanlu Group, whose milk powder contained toxic melamine in
   2008. While poisoning its customers, Sanlu also gained an advantage over
   competitors and might have forced more of them to taint their products,
   too, or go bankrupt-if Sanlu hadn't been exposed in the Chinese press. \"In
   the struggle between open and honest companies and dishonest and closed
   companies, we're creating a tremendous reputational tax on the unethical
   companies,\" he says.

    

   Of course, Assange's tax isn't as equitable as it sounds. He alone decides
   where to apply the penalty, choosing the targets and when to expose them
   with a touch of theatrical grandstanding-and with zero accountability. For
   better-and worse-WikiLeaks has become the Julian Assange Show. As a
   photographer begins shooting, Assange wonders aloud if the coat he's
   wearing might have been produced by a labor-exploiting company. A few
   minutes later he jokes about his \"messiah complex.\"

    

   Like any true believer, Assange sees his work in simple terms. Markets, he
   reminds me, can't exist without information. Business will come to
   appreciate what he offers. And if that requires a few painful scandals in
   the process?

    

   Assange doesn't miss a beat. \"Pain for the guilty.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Wednesday, December 08, 2010 19:39
   To: analysts
   Subject: Random Business Idea - Network Security

    

   I'm sure this has been thought of before at STRATFOR so excuse the
   redundancy. I was reading a solid Forbes article on Assange and it said
   that a large number of deep pocket corporations were looking into
   leak-focused network security after these Wikileak episodes.

   I was wondering if it was possible for us to get some of that
   \"leak-focused\" gravy train. This is an obvious fear sale, so that's a good
   thing. And we have something to offer that the IT security companies
   don't, mainly our focus on counter-intelligence and surveillance that Fred
   and Stick know better than anyone on the planet.

   We do a lot of good work with all the personal/executive security analysis
   as well. Could we develop some ideas and procedures on the idea of
   \"leak-focused\" network security that focuses on preventing one's own
   employees from leaking sensitive information.

   The point here is that I am sure there are certain procedures and
   precautions that companies should employ that go beyond installing network
   security network to deal with potential leaks. In fact, Im not so sure
   this is an IT problem that requires an IT solution.

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-12-09 07:11:02",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/870971_re-random-business-idea-network-security-.html","kevin.stech@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
872882,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   if anonymous outs taxi cab drivers working with Zeta, they are dead.  that
   is both simple and devastating.  If they release email accounts of GOM
   folks, and there are cartel members in that address book that would be
   devastating.  I think our definitions of devastating are different.  I
   agree the ability of these folks to bring down governments is minimal, but
   I am willing to bet the next deep throat scenario will come via a hacker
   and information they are able to steal. 

   On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  The question is if the attack is high
     priority enough.  Many people assume there is no attribution because
     there is no response, but I don't think that is accurate. 
     has NSA told you otherwise?  i am unclear, are you saying the entire
     darknet is mapped, or could be mapped, only it isn't because the NSA
     doesn't care or doens't share? 
     3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new laptop and
     start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack involves much more than
     a recently bought laptop.  In the same way there is an attack cycle for
     a terrorist attack or crime, there is one for a cyber attack.  A very
     simple attack may be as hard to trace as a nearly-random mugging in the
     dark in a neighborhood with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.
     so simple=low damage, and complicated = more damage?  if you hacked
     Calderon's blackberry and found out who his contacts were, and one of
     them was Chapo's sister, it would be simple and devastating.  A more
     complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational surveillance,
     developing exploits, developing programs and code, gaining access,
     exploiting that, and carrying out an attack.  And that takes time,
     giving more time for your exposure. Look at everything that went into
     Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person with a
     new laptop.  All of this activity provides activity and evidence which
     helps for attribution.  Of course it is always possible to develop an
     attack, just like any other operation, that even the best law
     enforcement and national intelligence agencies have trouble or cannot
     attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that it's very difficult for
     someone to successfully use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID,
     Aman, etc, be unable to attribute it.  They may not choose to cover it
     if it is small scale crime, however. 
     On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored cyber
       warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing that, since
       you can conduct a cyber attack without associating with a hacker group
       and still deny / cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual
       attacking US computer assets from China, may be working by himself or
       on behalf of the Chinese government, but unless the US has other intel
       on the Chinese government's cyber warfare activities in order to
       corroborate there is little capability to distinguish.

       It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
       operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from
       SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual responsible for
       hacking State run servers. In the past, I have turned to SIGINT
       organizations for collections on computer related material, but this
       was due to the US being behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where
       to assign responsibility. However, this has changed dramatically in
       the last couple of years.

       Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an
       extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a
       Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the online
       activity to something revealing (accessing personal email accounts,
       tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop, etc..), and
       begin hacking government email accounts then never use the laptop
       again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of my appearance
       from Starbuck's patrons or possible security cameras, I can not think
       of way to identify me.

       Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to these
       enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to specific
       computer-related activities because of the difficulty in identifying
       individuals.

       I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be blown, would
       be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common
       participant in \"Anonymous\" activities, was working for a State?
       Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that State agent
       organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs
       could a LEA look for to distinguish?

       On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a bit)

         1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything actually
         harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but i'm very
         doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real case where
         they could do some minor damage--to individual people, not not to an
         organization or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
         threat. 

         2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually
         pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover, but
         that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could probably still be
         attributed if important enough to those agencies.  The recent attack
         on Sony actually brings this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves
         anonymous denies they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have
         claimed an publicized attacks in the past, even before they were
         carried out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
         sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
         coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted Sony's IT
         security).  But whoever did it, again, no real damage came of it. 
         Congress is holding hearings over data security, but this is no
         different than the OC groups stealing your credit card information. 
         LE will go after them, have some success, but the threat is not that
         large. 
         On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

           Link: themeData

           I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
           broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
           almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
           Reviewing their list of attacks
           (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of
           the cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the
           internet . The interesting thing when it comes to their
           interactions with the cartels is the dubious role they play: at
           the same time they can be fighting crime by revealing cartel
           members/supporters, but they can also put lives in risk.

           However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
           Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can
           conduct a cyber attack under \"Anonymous\" is worrisome.
           (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

           If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
           websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know
           more about these guys. Who they are? What are they interested in?
           How they operate? Who they have targeted so far? How can I defend
           myself from them? In what countries are they active? Should I
           worry about them at all? Can I use them to achieve any particular
           goal?

           On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else
             can build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they
             pose to innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico. 
             By focusing on journalists or taxi drivers they show little
             understanding of the situation.  This has long term implications
             in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
             their actions and they act without understanding the
             environment.  It was the same when they released information on
             the Sony Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt
             innocent people to prove a point. 

             On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
               possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
               Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by
               Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on cartels
               as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
               find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
               individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
               (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it
               may be an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
               Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

               Link: themeData
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
               distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government
               websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
               statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a
               video depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug
               cartels on October 10? With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
               Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
               police, politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
               cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow
               kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In the
               Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
               day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands
               of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
               conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
               presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
               lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any
               reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers
               before. 

               What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                    o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
               threat to Mexican cartels.
                    o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit
               online media
                    o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to
               lash out at cartels

               While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose
               a threat
                    o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
               identifiable information on cartel members
                    o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could
               acquire on cartels
                    o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
               communications, identifiable information on cartels members
               have to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                           Anonymous
                           o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to
               reveal illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

               Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
               ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
               result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
               limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting in
               front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
               retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online
               assault of cartels.
                    o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
               journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some
               of these individuals are forced to collude with cartels.    
                         Taxi drivers are often victims of extortion or
               coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
               individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel    
                             operations. Politicans have been accused of
               working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor) before,
               however there has yet to be any consequences from this.
                    o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent
               cartels are willing to go protect their operations.
                       o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                       o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
               community before, coercing computer science majors into
               working for them.
                       o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
               discovering hackers within Mexico.

                

               On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                 Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea
                 but there are several issues to address and fix here.

                 These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
                 discussion:

                      o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's
                 fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                      o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a
                 difference between stealing bank records from government
                 computers and overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                      o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
                 information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of
                 info is kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You
                 seem to be talking about identities, whose? If anything it's
                 dirty cops, politicians and businessmen who need to worry
                 about what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                 bloggers and media were killed in previous instances. Was it
                 because they revealed operational details, because they
                 acted as informants, because they exposed links with
                 officials or because they somehow sullied the cartel's
                 reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
                 to the cartels themselves?
                      o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon
                 can realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes
                 a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence
                 capacity except for the technical ability by a very small
                 number of its members to infiltrate certain networks and
                 databases and steal information. Now what kind of
                 information would a cartel keep on a network that is
                 connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else
                 could information be found? Government databases? Once we
                 know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
                 know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                      o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
                 trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
                 killings done by people who may not understand the
                 difference between an anon hacker and a blogger.

                 On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                   -------- Original Message --------

                    Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                       Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                       From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
                   Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                         To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

                   you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to
                   need a lot more work

                   You need to lay out:

                   a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
                   section is unclear
                   b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is,
                   and therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
                   c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
                   anything
                   d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
                   anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their
                   connections

                   I also just want to point out that we have reasonable
                   reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some
                   significant levels of sophistication in their online
                   presence, to include the use of cyber currencies and
                   significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume that
                   Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
                   protected fashion.

                   Karen Hooper
                   Latin America Analyst
                   o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                   c: 512.750.7234
                   STRATFOR
                   www.stratfor.com
                   On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                   On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                   Link: themeData

                   Trigger

                   Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
                   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
                   lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
                   statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including
                   a video released depicting...? a person talking? a voice?
                   words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent
                   video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                   criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
                   Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                   journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
                   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
                   otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
                   between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                   unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                   different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a
                   conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
                   experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
                   experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
                   that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                    

                   In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                   reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member
                   this should be mentioned right up front. Cartels have a
                   member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
                   enough details so we understand who this guy is and
                   why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims
                   of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
                   operations are true, cartels will likely respond with
                   violence against individuals revealed as opposing cartel
                   members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is
                   likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude
                   with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
                   Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
                   means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                   effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
                   Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
                   continue their threats against any individual using online
                   media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking
                   about bloggers here. against the cartels.

                    

                   The Battle Space

                   Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                   separate realities from each other. Anonymous operates
                   solely in sphere of the computer networks. Anonymous does
                   not experience geographical boundaries. All personalities
                   within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
                   not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in
                   the real world. They have names and addresses - although
                   most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                   base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking.
                   Any information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to
                   exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual
                   cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
                   be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
                   has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or
                   a big company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                   it does not really matter if you don't run operations on
                   the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They
                   are also far less dependent on the web than the
                   jihadists.)

                   Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's
                   power base consists of the perceived anonymity that its
                   members believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by
                   operating through the internet. This gives an opening for
                   people disgruntled by anything and everything to practice
                   general dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity +
                   audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
                   people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any
                   sort of serious IT capability. 

                   The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
                   been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

                   The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in
                   US and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always
                   looking to maximize profits and expand. But they are
                   bricks and mortar commerce. Yes..... but they use the
                   internet to launder money and issue commands. We know that
                   Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to
                   assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity. 
                   Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                   escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
                   experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels
                   are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
                   violence. While battling each other, cartels still face
                   arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
                   avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money,
                   cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists
                   and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
                   operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
                   discussion. You need to focus on the possible
                   vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
                   have no cyber presence.

                    

                   Anonymous' Weapons

                   Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions
                   against criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous'
                   only ability to combat cartels lay in information
                   operations, mainly disseminating sensitive information on
                   cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via social
                   media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and
                   that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                   cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of
                   a targeted information operations campaign by technically
                   elite individuals can not be overlooked should not be
                   underestimated. Cartels view main stream media outlets and
                   social media blogs as such a threat to their operations,
                   that they have continued to target journalists and
                   bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was
                   placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
                   body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
                   denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
                   here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

                   As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                   internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample
                   reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing
                   information they threaten to release. By releasing
                   identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
                   cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
                   individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
                   information is limited by what is available via the
                   Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
                   should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
                   However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                   governments computer networks, information available to
                   Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to
                   acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
                   clear at all

                    

                   Cartel's Defense

                               A counter response to the video? by the
                   cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                   claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los
                   Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by hackers
                   so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
                   undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is
                   soley internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities
                   of associated members. How did they find teh Anonymous
                   member? The answer to that could very well give you some
                   indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
                   Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web
                   , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
                   rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG
                   has whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in
                   cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
                   indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
                   cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any
                   region of the world. Personal information including
                   locations is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge
                   it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                   figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous.
                   Cartels are only capable of dealing with their online
                   enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
                   employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
                   Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                               Cartels have been known to coerce the services
                   of Mexican citizens with a technical background.
                   Recruiting the help of computer science majors through
                   personal threats has been reported in the past where? What
                   cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
                   world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will
                   likely need the assistance of technical experts to help
                   combat any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                   bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
                   unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
                   operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
                   such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and
                   resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers through
                   investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
                   (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume
                   that not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                               In order to compete with an online foe,
                   cartels will likely continue counter tactics they are most
                   familiar with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of
                   their HUMINT operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would
                   we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged
                   connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
                   and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
                   public display of violence will likely continue to be used
                   to scare online media into submission i'm not really
                   seeing the online media-international hacking group
                   connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                   inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
                   encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
                   cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will
                   remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
                   capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could
                   call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off
                   any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 22:29:35",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/872882_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
873251,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can build
   off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent
   people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on journalists
   or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the situation.  This has
   long term implications in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the
   consequences of their actions and they act without understanding the
   environment.  It was the same when they released information on the Sony
   Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a
   point. 

   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
     cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
     to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
     personal information on cartels as well as states a member had been
     kidnapped. I could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of
     the individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
     (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an
     individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
     Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

     Link: themeData
     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
     denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
     drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent
     video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels
     in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The
     hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
     otherwise face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming
     November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
     reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met.
     The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
     presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at
     online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing
     with any headaches from hackers before. 

     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
     Mexican cartels.
          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
     cartels

     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
     information on cartel members
          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
     cartels
          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
     identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
     realm of possibilities for
                 Anonymous
                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
     illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent
     world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of
     cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when
     sitting in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
     retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
     cartels.
          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
     cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
     forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
     victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
     identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
     cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
     working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor) before, however
     there has yet to be any consequences from this.
          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
     willing to go protect their operations.
             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
     before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
             o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
     discovering hackers within Mexico.

      

     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
       are several issues to address and fix here.

       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
       discussion:

            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
       can't gloss over that fact
            o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
       stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
       www.loszetas.com main page.
            o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
       could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
       accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
       businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
       Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
       instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
       they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
       because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
       kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
            o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
       realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
       damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
       technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
       certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
       information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
       Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
       accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
       dissemination.
            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
       back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by
       people who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker
       and a blogger.

       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

         -------- Original Message --------

          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
             From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
         Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
               To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

         you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
         more work

         You need to lay out:

         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
         unclear
         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
         therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
         breaches their systems or exposes their connections

         I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
         insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
         of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to
         assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
         protected fashion.

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         Link: themeData

         Trigger

         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
         Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out
         at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
         Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...?
         a person talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With
         the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
         the criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
         Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group
         demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
         consequences. The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal
         cartels and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
         cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
         experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no experience
         with the cartels. I do not believe for a second that the cartels
         have no experience with hackers.

          

         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
         day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
         releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back.
         Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how
         he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing
         revealing information on cartel members and operations are true,
         cartels will likely respond with violence against individuals
         revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials
         who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
         Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this means. You
         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel
         will be able to retaliate against Anonymous remains unanswered .
         However, cartels will continue their threats against any individual
         using online media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not
         talking about bloggers here. against the cartels.

          

         The Battle Space

         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
         realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
         the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
         cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
         tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses - although
         most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base
         consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any information
         connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers.
         (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of
         Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
         what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
         Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in revenue,
         but it does not really matter if you don't run operations on the
         web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far
         less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
         consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
         themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
         internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
         and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
         goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web
         of people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of
         serious IT capability. 

         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
         targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
         Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
         maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
         commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
         issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.
         Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and escalating
         brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing
         different types of threats. Cartels are always suffering at the
         hands of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each other,
         cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels
         wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
         have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
         bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok... but
         that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus
         on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume
         they have no cyber presence.

          

         Anonymous' Weapons

         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
         criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
         combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
         sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
         statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean
         so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a
         targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
         individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
         Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
         such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
         target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
         Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
         body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce
         cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
         really addressing the subheading

         As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
         disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous
         is capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
         cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals.
         Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive information is limited
         by what is available via the Internet. Government computers
         connected to the Internet should always be considered a possibility
         of an attack. However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the
         US governments computer networks, information available to Mexico's
         intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you
         trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

          

         Cartel's Defense

                     A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet
         to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by
         Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed
         by hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also
         this undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley
         internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that
         could very well give you some indication to the technical ability of
         the cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
         wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely
         are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole
         agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume
         (and we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
         disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in
         any region of the world. Personal information including locations is
         only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject
         of the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
         work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
         online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
         employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger things
         have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                     Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
         Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of
         computer science majors through personal threats has been reported
         in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels
         operate in the world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they
         will likely need the assistance of technical experts to help combat
         any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside
         of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable
         of identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
         experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers
         through investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
         (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not
         all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                     In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
         likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
         force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
         Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
         with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be
         targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
         public display of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
         online media into submission i'm not really seeing the online
         media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
         manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer hackers
         have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
         cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to
         be seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
         the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff and
         simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 17:22:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/873251_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
874103,"Re: [latam] Falklands Monitoring/Repping Guidance
","   I believe they have had a sub rotation in the region since 82

   Nate Hughes wrote:

     We want to watch the Ocean Guardian rig and any Argentinian attempt to
     interfere or intimidate operations. Any Argentine naval or air activity
     in the vicinity of the Falklands right now should at the very least be
     noted, if not repped. Any UK reinforcements being deployed or arriving
     on station in the Falklands should be noted and repped unless they are
     simply rotational (one destroyer or detachment of fighters replacing
     another, for example.

     The heart of this is watching for actual developments and physical
     deployments. There will be no shortage of rhetoric flying out of Buenos
     Aires on this. But it is a keen awareness of what is actually happening
     that will help us sift through the rhetoric.

     UK assets on station:
     -the guided missile destroyer HMS York (D98)
     -the offshore patrol vessel HMS Clyde (P-284)
     -the Royal Fleet Auxiliary tanker Wave Ruler (A-390)
     -four Typhoon air superiority fighters

     You probably won't see it, but keep an eye out for any indication that
     there is a British sub on station.

     Probably want to dig and see if we can find a Falkland Islands paper.
     --
     Nathan Hughes
     Director of Military Analysis
     STRATFOR
     nathan.hughes@stratfor.com

 --
 Alex Posey
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 alex.posey@stratfor.com
","2010-02-22 16:11:32",1,"2012-02-27 22:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/874103_re-latam-falklands-monitoring-repping-guidance-.html","alex.posey@stratfor.com","mailto:latam@stratfor.com","hughes@stratfor.com,latam@stratfor.com",""
874331,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   I disagree that Anonymous doesn't matter, but I agree the point of
   Tristan's piece is what makes this interesting.  innocent people could
   die, and that sucks.

   On 10/25/11 9:57 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     No, I didn't say that. 

     Sometimes we write about things--the most obvious and comparable example
     being Wikileaks-- that don't matter and explaining why they don't
     matter.  Another example being some of the grassroots terrorists who
     have been picked up in the US,  say Mohamad Osman Mohamad (sp?) for
     example.  He didn't matter, but we can provide a very good and cogent
     explanation of the threats he did and did not offer that few others do
     (or maybe no one else).

     But I don't think we have the expertise to truly deal with Anonymous and
     I don't care to give them more press for not doing much.  Tristan's
     piece on the other hand gets at a new and developing issue in what they
     are trying to do.  It's an anomaly i think that is worth covering.  It
     is probably the first time we will see violence as a result of their
     activities. 

     On 10/25/11 9:35 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

       So, until Anonymous doesn't become a national threat we shouldn't
       write about it?

       On 10/24/11 8:17 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         There's enough information on what's behind the Aurora attacks to
         respond and shut them down. 

         Change everything I said about SIGINT to CNO combined with
         all-source analysis and maybe human investigations.  Same point
         applies. With the low-level shit, it's usually not investigated.

         As far as I'm concerned an attack that matters is something
         seriously affects a country's capabilities relative to others.  (in
         this, intelligence can seriously affect those abilities, as it
         allows for them to be countered or become less advtantageous,
         relatively)
          

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Tristan Reed\" <tristan.reed@stratfor.com>
         To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
         Sent: Monday, October 24, 2011 7:33:59 PM
         Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels

         As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever
         identify the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target
         set was the only thing that led people to believe the Chinese
         government was responsible.

         2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
         responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
         cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case
         HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
         capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers.
         NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers but it does
         not make it SIGINT.

         Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

         Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
         SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by
         communication devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the
         signals. Combining computer network operations and SIGINT is
         innaccurate, because while SIGINT may be used with other
         intelligence disciplines in order to identify a hacker, it is not
         necessary and is no more related than any other intel discipline.
         SIGINT could help you identify a computer devices (not the operator)
         emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis, which is also separate
         from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could help in providing
         methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT wouldn't
         obtain those messages.

         In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators
         involved are specifically trained in computer science disciplines
         and technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

         NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
         technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
         resources in R&D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to
         NSA. But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO
         capabilities.

         Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary
         labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
         discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage to
         extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber
         attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered. 
         You chose the most prolific example of a cyber attack (which the
         whole operation consisted mainly outside of the cyber attack
         itself). Anything that falls short of this doesn't matter? Define
         what matters. None of anonymous' attacks have physically damaged
         secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think you are downplaying
         too much the significance of exposing corporate secrets, halting
         businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by defacing
         their websites.

         On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
               arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
               foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage
               undetected? No, of course not.  But I also would not argue
               that the SVR is so good to be immune to detection, as you are
               arguing with hackers.  I'm saying they are more detectable
               than you think.  There is no such thing as truly anonymous. 
               Everythign leaves a trail.  Will that trail in every instance
               lead to a single individual? no.  but it can lead to a place,
               an organization, and often, an individual. 

               2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
               responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to
               investigating cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to
               corroborate, in this case HUMINT is just as significant as
               SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not indicate its
               capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
               department for tracking hackers but it does not make it
               SIGINT.

               Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

               The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
               people assume there is no attribution because there is no
               response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
               this, because no attribution is one reason for no response. 
               Yes, they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for
               lack of response, then I think they are wrong. 

               3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
               laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
               involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same
               way there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime,
               there is one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be
               as hard to trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a
               neighborhood with much more serious crime and no CCTV
               cameras.  A more complicated attack, however, involves
               pre-operational surveillance, developing exploits, developing
               programs and code, gaining access, exploiting that, and
               carrying out an attack.  Discovering exploits and writing code
               can be done entirely offline, out of sight of law enforcement
               or intel agencies. Pre-operational surveillance and gaining
               access (the point of the exploit you write offline) would fit
               in my example. The point is, if you don't link your computer
               to identifiable information, you remain anonymous. Just like
               people use certain methods to build IEDs, people use certain
               mehtods to design programs and code for cyber attacks.  Over
               time, those methods become identifiable and more and more
               attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is linked back
               to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add. Being
               connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
               to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of
               those things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving
               more time for your exposure Exposure comes from network
               activity with the target, a lot of the pre-operational phase
               of an attack can occur without network activity. Look at
               everything that went into Stuxnet as a great example, that
               couldn't be done with one person with a new laptop. Writing
               the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
               for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
               discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage
               to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of
               a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not
               mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
               evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
               possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation,
               that even the best law enforcement and national intelligence
               agencies have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My
               point is that it's very difficult for someone to successfully
               use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be
               unable to attribute it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is
               effective in identifying hackers?I don't, but I'm confident
               they are far better than you are allowing for.    They may not
               choose to cover it if it is small scale crime, however. 
               On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                 I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state
                 sponsored cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in
                 actually doing that, since you can conduct a cyber attack
                 without associating with a hacker group and still deny /
                 cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual
                 attacking US computer assets from China, may be working by
                 himself or on behalf of the Chinese government, but unless
                 the US has other intel on the Chinese government's cyber
                 warfare activities in order to corroborate there is little
                 capability to distinguish.

                 It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
                 operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT.
                 Assets from SIGINT would not directly help you track an
                 individual responsible for hacking State run servers. In the
                 past, I have turned to SIGINT organizations for collections
                 on computer related material, but this was due to the US
                 being behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where to
                 assign responsibility. However, this has changed
                 dramatically in the last couple of years.

                 Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous.
                 As an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in
                 cash, go to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never
                 attribute the online activity to something revealing
                 (accessing personal email accounts, tweeting, entering
                 personal information to the laptop, etc..), and begin
                 hacking government email accounts then never use the laptop
                 again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of my
                 appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible security
                 cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

                 Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer
                 to these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities
                 tied to specific computer-related activities because of the
                 difficulty in identifying individuals.

                 I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be
                 blown, would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But
                 what if a common participant in \"Anonymous\" activities, was
                 working for a State? Anonymous has denounced state
                 governments before, if that State agent organizes an attack
                 amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs could a LEA
                 look for to distinguish?

                 On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                   In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming
                   in a bit)

                   1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
                   actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they
                   can't, but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows
                   the first real case where they could do some minor
                   damage--to individual people, not not to an organization
                   or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
                   threat. 

                   2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
                   actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous'
                   as a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and
                   could probably still be attributed if important enough to
                   those agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings
                   this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous
                   denies they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have
                   claimed an publicized attacks in the past, even before
                   they were carried out.  The attack on the Playstation
                   Network was more sophisticated than anonymous' usual work
                   (though potentially coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS
                   attacks that distracted Sony's IT security).  But whoever
                   did it, again, no real damage came of it.  Congress is
                   holding hearings over data security, but this is no
                   different than the OC groups stealing your credit card
                   information.  LE will go after them, have some success,
                   but the threat is not that large. 
                   On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                     I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity
                     to have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our
                     readers no nothing, or almost nothing about what this
                     group is and the threat it poses. Reviewing their list
                     of attacks
                     (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                     most of the cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a
                     Robin Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when
                     it comes to their interactions with the cartels is the
                     dubious role they play: at the same time they can be
                     fighting crime by revealing cartel members/supporters,
                     but they can also put lives in risk.

                     However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed
                     by Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on
                     Earth, can conduct a cyber attack under \"Anonymous\" is
                     worrisome.
                     (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                     If I run an organization, if I am responsible for
                     government websites, or if I am just a internet user, I
                     would like to know more about these guys. Who they are?
                     What are they interested in? How they operate? Who they
                     have targeted so far? How can I defend myself from them?
                     In what countries are they active? Should I worry about
                     them at all? Can I use them to achieve any particular
                     goal?

                     On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                       nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                       everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                       doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                       caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing
                       on journalists or taxi drivers they show little
                       understanding of the situation.  This has long term
                       implications in not just Mexico.  They don't consider
                       the consequences of their actions and they act without
                       understanding the environment.  It was the same when
                       they released information on the Sony Playstation
                       network to protest Sony.  They hurt innocent people to
                       prove a point. 

                       On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                         discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is
                         on what type of threat Anonymous can pose to
                         cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens
                         revealing personal information on cartels as well as
                         states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find
                         any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
                         individual being kidnapped. According to their
                         facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous
                         Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
                         posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
                         Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

                         Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                         distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                         government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via
                         the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
                         criminal cartels, including a video depicting a
                         masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
                         October 10? With the most recent video release,
                         Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal
                         cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
                         identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                         journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The
                         hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow
                         kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In the
                         Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                         mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                         reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
                         member are not met. The potential of conflict
                         between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
                         presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of
                         cartels lashing out at online bloggers, but I
                         haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with
                         any headaches from hackers before. 

                         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct
                         physical security threat to Mexican cartels.
                              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                         exploit online media
                              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in
                         Mexico to lash out at cartels

                         While not certain, there is a potential for
                         Anonymous to pose a threat
                              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to
                         possess identifiable information on cartel members
                              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous
                         could acquire on cartels
                              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                         communications, identifiable information on cartels
                         members have to be considered in the realm of
                         possibilities for
                                     Anonymous
                                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's
                         ability to reveal illicit online activity (child
                         pornography rings)

                         Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in
                         the ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in
                         Mexico. As a result, their understanding of cartel
                         activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with
                         confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but
                         this may blind them to any possible retribution.
                         They may not even know the impact of any online
                         assault of cartels.
                              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                         journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                         understand some of these individuals are forced to
                         collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                         often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                         halcones. Revealing the identity of these
                         individuals will not have a significant impact on
                         cartel                   operations. Politicans have
                         been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
                         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to
                         be any consequences from this.
                              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                         extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                         operations.
                                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                                 o    Cartels have reached out to the
                         computer science community before, coercing computer
                         science majors into working for them.
                                 o    This provides the cartels with the
                         possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                          

                         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like
                           the idea but there are several issues to address
                           and fix here.

                           These are the bullets of my main analytical
                           concern with the discussion:

                                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                           that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                                o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a
                           difference between stealing bank records from
                           government computers and overloading
                           www.loszetas.com main page.
                                o     There's no thought out process of what
                           sort of information could anon have on the
                           cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
                           accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
                           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's
                           dirty cops, politicians and businessmen who need
                           to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
                           Think about why the bloggers and media were killed
                           in previous instances. Was it because they
                           revealed operational details, because they acted
                           as informants, because they exposed links with
                           officials or because they somehow sullied the
                           cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                           information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                                o     Once you identify this info - think
                           about if anon can realistically access it and
                           disseminate it so it causes a measure of damage.
                           Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except
                           for the technical ability by a very small number
                           of its members to infiltrate certain networks and
                           databases and steal information. Now what kind of
                           information would a cartel keep on a network that
                           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
                           Where else could information be found? Government
                           databases? Once we know what kind of information
                           is accessible, we can also know more about the
                           consequences of dissemination.
                                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                           Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not,
                           there risks to be a lot of killings done by people
                           who may not understand the difference between an
                           anon hacker and a blogger.

                           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                             -------- Original Message --------

                              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs     
                                       Cartels                                
                                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500        
                                 From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>     
                             Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>               
                                   To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>               

                             you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                             going to need a lot more work

                             You need to lay out:

                             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                             trigger section is unclear
                             b) what our assessment of the online cartel
                             presence is, and therefore their vulnerabilities
                             and capabilities
                             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                             security anything
                             d) how far the cartels would be willing to
                             travel to kill anyone who breaches their systems
                             or exposes their connections

                             I also just want to point out that we have
                             reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the
                             very least has some significant levels of
                             sophistication in their online presence, to
                             include the use of cyber currencies and
                             significant IT capacity. There is no reason to
                             assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
                             business online, in a protected fashion.

                             Karen Hooper
                             Latin America Analyst
                             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                             c: 512.750.7234
                             STRATFOR
                             www.stratfor.com
                             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
","2011-10-25 17:35:41",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/874331_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
875135,"RE: Random Business Idea - Network Security
","   You're right that it's really not a technological issue. There's a great
   technology for keeping your private data private already. It's called
   mandatory access control and it's been around for decades. The issue is
   more subtle since you're dealing with people leaking stuff they've been
   cleared to see. And now you're in the realm of grey matter.

    

   And it seems to me that here, as in many other things, an ounce of
   prevention is worth a pound of cure. I think that prevention can be boiled
   down to having a cohesive team with members that feel enfranchised. You
   don't leak your classified material, you leak their classified material.
   So if you want to be shady and exploit other people, fine. Just make sure
   you are on the same page with your co-conspirators and everybody gets a
   cut.

    

   If your company sells baby cribs and your employees are church-going
   soccer moms, then you might want to tone down the Dr. Evil routine.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Thursday, December 09, 2010 00:16
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: Random Business Idea - Network Security

    

   That is the one...

   Forbes mentions how companies are now focusing on \"leak-proof\" network
   security. Interesting. I think that we would have a possible in there
   since that is not just about IT. But I don't really know what I am talking
   about.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Kevin Stech\" <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, December 9, 2010 12:11:02 AM
   Subject: RE: Random Business Idea - Network Security

   I believe this is the article Marko is talking about.

    

   WikiLeaks' next target is big business, Assange says

   Andy Greenberg, Forbes.com

   Date: Wed. Dec. 1 2010 7:39 PM ET

   http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/World/20101201/forbes-assange-interview-101201/

    

   In a rare interview, Assange tells Forbes that the release of Pentagon and
   State Department documents are just the beginning. His next target: big
   business.

    

   Early next year, Julian Assange says, a major American bank will suddenly
   find itself turned inside out. Tens of thousands of its internal documents
   will be exposed on Wikileaks.org with no polite requests for executives'
   response or other forewarnings. The data dump will lay bare the finance
   firm's secrets on the Web for every customer, every competitor, every
   regulator to examine and pass judgment on.

    

   When? Which bank? What documents? Cagey as always, Assange won't say, so
   his claim is impossible to verify. But he has always followed through on
   his threats. Sitting for a rare interview in a London garden flat on a
   rainy November day, he compares what he is ready to unleash to the damning
   e-mails that poured out of the Enron trial: a comprehensive vivisection of
   corporate bad behavior. \"You could call it the ecosystem of corruption,\"
   he says, refusing to characterize the coming release in more detail. \"But
   it's also all the regular decision making that turns a blind eye to and
   supports unethical practices: the oversight that's not done, the
   priorities of executives, how they think they're fulfilling their own
   self-interest.\"

    

   This is Assange: a moral ideologue, a champion of openness, a control
   freak. He pauses to think-a process that occasionally puts our
   conversation on hold for awkwardly long interludes. The slim 39-year-old
   WikiLeaks founder wears a navy suit over his 6-foot-2 frame, and his once
   shaggy white hair, recently dyed brown, has been cropped to a sandy
   patchwork of blonde and tan. He says he colors it when he's \"being
   tracked.\"

    

   \"These big-package releases. There should be a cute name for them,\" he
   says, then pauses again.

    

   \"Megaleaks?\" I suggest, trying to move things along.

    

   \"Yes, that's good-megaleaks.\" His voice is a hoarse, Aussie-tinged
   baritone. As a teenage hacker in Melbourne its pitch helped him
   impersonate IT staff to trick companies' employees into revealing their
   passwords over the phone, and today it's deeper still after a recent bout
   of flu. \"These megaleaks . . . they're an important phenomenon. And
   they're only going to increase.\"

    

   He'll see to that. By the time you're reading this another giant dump of
   classified U.S. documents may well be public. Assange refused to discuss
   the leak at the time FORBES went to press, but he claims it is part of a
   series that will have the greatest impact of any WikiLeaks release yet.
   Assange calls the shots: choosing the media outlets that splash his
   exposes, holding them to a strict embargo, running the leaks
   simultaneously on his site. Past megaleaks from his information insurgency
   over the last year have included 76,000 secret Afghan war documents and
   another trove of 392,000 files from the Iraq war. Those data explosions,
   the largest classified military security breaches in history, have roused
   antiwar activists and enraged the Pentagon.

    

   Admire Assange or revile him, he is the prophet of a coming age of
   involuntary transparency. Having exposed military misconduct on a grand
   scale, he is now gunning for corporate America. Does Assange have
   unpublished, damaging documents on pharmaceutical companies? Yes, he says.
   Finance? Yes, many more than the single bank scandal we've been
   discussing. Energy? Plenty, on everything from BP to an Albanian oil firm
   that he says attempted to sabotage its competitors' wells. Like
   informational IEDs, these damaging revelations can be detonated at will.

    

   Long gone are the days when Daniel Ellsberg had to photocopy thousands of
   Vietnam War documents to leak the Pentagon Papers. Modern whistleblowers,
   or employees with a grudge, can zip up their troves of incriminating
   documents on a laptop, USB stick or portable hard drive, spirit them out
   through personal e-mail accounts or online drop sites-or simply submit
   them directly to WikiLeaks.

    

   What do large companies think of the threat? If they're terrified, they're
   not saying. None would talk to us. Nor would the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
   WikiLeaks \"is high profile, legally insulated and transnational,\" says
   former Commerce Department official James Lewis, who follows cybersecurity
   for the Center for Strategic & International Studies. \"That adds up to a
   reputational risk that companies didn't have to think about a year ago.\"

    

   Already U.S. laws wrapped into financial reform this year expand
   whistleblower incentives to offer six- and seven-digit rewards to staffers
   in any industry who report malfeasance. WikiLeaks adds another, new form
   of corporate data breach: It offers the conscience-stricken and vindictive
   alike a chance to publish documents largely unfiltered, without censors or
   personal repercussions, thanks to privacy and encryption technologies that
   make anonymity easier than ever before. WikiLeaks' technical and
   ideological example has inspired copycats from Africa to China and rallied
   transparency advocates to push for a new, legal promised land in the
   unlikely haven of Iceland. It's also fueling a race in the cybersecurity
   industry and in Washington to find technology that can plug information
   leaks once for all.

    

   Today Assange looks tired, his eyes narrowed and the skin beneath them
   puffy, as if he's unused to even England's gloomy daylight. He has no
   permanent home. \"We're like a traveling production company; everyone moves
   somewhere, and we put on a production,\" he sighs. \"We haven't had any rest
   since April.\" In Sweden, where many of the group's servers are based, a
   warrant has now been issued for his arrest on rape charges. He's denied
   the accusations, arguing they amount to smear tactics. He's also afraid to
   set foot in several other countries, including the U.S., fearing that
   officials will find reasons to detain him. No question that WikiLeaks
   would be in trouble if he were jailed: A spokeswoman says it has a
   \"contingency plan,\" but without Assange there is no public face.
   Meanwhile, his resources have been drained by defections from his
   organization; some old friends and associates have taken issue with his
   autocratic style.

    

   None of which has stopped him from picking new fights. The promised
   release of bank documents would be the largest assault by WikiLeaks on the
   corporate sector, and Assange says the business community should expect
   plenty of sequels. In early October the site shut down its
   document-submission system; Assange says it was receiving more information
   than it could find resources to publish, thousands of additions a day at
   some points. The total is more gigabytes of data than he can count. \"Our
   pipeline of leaks has been increasing exponentially as our profile rises,\"
   he says, drawing a curve upward in the air with one hand.

    

   If even a fraction of his claims are borne out, he's already sitting on a
   crypt of data any three-letter spy agency would kill for. The world's most
   vocal transparency advocate is now one of the world's biggest keepers of
   secrets. And about half of those revelations, says Assange, relate to the
   private sector.

    

   Over the last four years he has been so busy embarrassing various
   governments, from Washington to the corrupt Kenyan regime of Daniel arap
   Moi, that many forget the corporate scandals already on WikiLeaks' trophy
   wall. In January 2008 the site posted documents alleging that the Swiss
   bank Julius Baer hid clients' profits from even the Swiss government,
   concealing them in what seemed to be shell companies in the Cayman
   Islands. The bank filed a lawsuit against WikiLeaks for publishing data
   stolen from its clients. Baer later dropped the suit-but managed to stir
   up embarrassing publicity for itself. The next year WikiLeaks published
   documents from a pharma trade group implying that its lobbyists were
   receiving confidential documents from and exerting influence over a World
   Health Organization project to fund drug research in the developing world.
   The resulting attention helped crater the WHO project.

    

   In September 2009 commodities giant Trafigura filed an injunction that
   prevented British media from mentioning a damaging internal report. The
   memo showed the company had dumped tons of toxic waste in the Ivory Coast,
   chemicals that allegedly sickened 100,000 locals. But it couldn't stop
   WikiLeaks from publishing the information. Trafigura eventually paid more
   than $200 million in settlements.

    

   How can an American corporation respond to a Wiki attack? Lawsuits won't
   work: WikiLeaks is legally shielded in the U.S. by its role as a mere
   conduit for documents. Even if a company somehow won a judgment against
   WikiLeaks, that wouldn't shut it down. Assange spreads the site's assets
   over many countries. \"There's no single target to drop a bomb on,\" says
   Eric Goldman, a law professor at Santa Clara University.

    

   The best protection? With a dash of irony Icelandic WikiLeaks staffer
   Kristinn Hrafnsson suggests that companies change their ways to avoid
   targeting. \"They should resist the temptation to enter into corruption,\"
   he says. Don Tapscott, coauthor of The Naked Corporation (Free Press,
   2003), agrees. His simplistic conclusion: \"Open your own kimono. You're
   going to be naked. So you have to dig deep, look at your whole operation,
   make sure that integrity is part of your bones.\"

    

   Most corporations, instead, are turning to cybersecurity to shield their
   private parts. Despite dozens of calls to companies in tech, energy and
   finance, none wanted to talk about antileaking strategies. But a Forrester
   Research study found that about a quarter of companies in the U.S., the
   U.K., France, Germany and Canada were implementing leak-focused security
   software in 2010, and another third are considering that option. A study
   last year by the Ponemon Institute, a privacy-research consultancy in
   Traverse City, Mich., found that 60% of employees admit to taking
   sensitive data before they leave a company.

    

   *****

    

   Some of the more intriguing antileak work is being done by Uncle Sam. In
   an unmarked government building on the edge of a residential Arlington,
   Va. neighborhood, a cybersecurity researcher named Peiter Zatko shows just
   how easily leaks can occur. He lays out a blow-by-blow history of one
   insider data theft: The suspect searched broadly over the network to find
   anything related to critical infrastructure, then returned to manually
   probe a few interesting files. \"Then he walked away with enough
   information to shut down big chunks of the telephone systems in the United
   States,\" Zatko says matter-of-factly.

    

   Who was that shadowy data smuggler? \"That was me,\" says the 39-year-old
   researcher, giggling bashfully.

    

   Zatko is not your typical Department of Defense employee. Even in his new
   Beltway digs, he prefers to be called \"Mudge,\" the hacker handle he used
   during decades of exploring the dark corners of the Internet. Frank Heidt,
   a former security staffer at MCI and several military contractors, says
   that when he first read Zatko's exploit research in mid-1990s hacker
   zines, he thought that Mudge must be the pseudonym of a group. \"He was so
   prolific that I thought he couldn't be one person,\" Heidt says. In 1998,
   as part of the L0pht hacker think tank, Zatko testified in a congressional
   hearing that he and his friends could shut down the Internet in 30
   minutes.

    

   Since March Zatko has also been a lead cybersecurity researcher at the
   Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the mad-scientist wing of the
   Pentagon devoted to projects that occasionally result in breakthroughs
   like the Internet and GPS. Zatko's new pet project may be equally
   ambitious: He aims to rid the world of digital leaks.

    

   The telephone system theft case that Zatko dissected in a Darpa conference
   room was a test, demonstrating that anyone with access to a network could
   steal data without detection, despite the system's expensive security
   software. Now his challenge is to fix the problem. Since August he has led
   a project known as the Cyber Insider Threat, or Cinder. Like most Darpa
   initiatives it's an X-Prize-style open invitation for ideas; recipients
   typically get tens of millions of dollars in government funding.
   Thirty-five entrants, mostly tiny companies, have already publicly signed
   up, many more in secret. \"We're looking to everyone from academia to
   startups to large government contractors,\" says Zatko. \"We're not looking
   for evolutionary improvement. We want to pull the rug out from the problem
   altogether.\"

    

   It's a well-worn carpet. Since late 2007 every major security software
   vendor, from McAfee to Symantec to Trend Micro, has spent hundreds of
   millions of dollars to acquire companies in the so-called Data-Leak
   Prevention (DLP) industry-software designed to locate and tag sensitive
   information, and then guard against its escape at the edges of a firm's
   network.

    

   The problem: DLP doesn't work. Data is simply created too quickly, and
   moved around too often, for a mere filter to catch it, says Richard
   Stiennon, an analyst for security consultancy IT-Harvest, in Birmingham,
   Mich. \"For DLP to function, all the stars have to align,\" he says. \"This
   is a huge problem that can't be stopped with a single layer of
   infrastructure.\"

    

   More fashionable now is network forensics: the process of constantly
   collecting every fingerprint on a company's servers to trace an intruder
   or leaker after the fact-and, perhaps, deter the next one. That's a bit
   like fighting the next war according to the last one. Still, revenue at
   NetWitness, a prominent Herndon, Va. startup in that budding field, has
   leaped from $250,000 to $40 million since 2006. While the software
   generally gathers data and makes it easily available to queries, it
   doesn't pinpoint culprits. \"There's nothing in current technology that can
   do this in an automated fashion,\" says Shawn Carpenter, principal
   forensics analyst at NetWitness. \"You need a Columbo.\"

    

   Or, better yet, a robo-Columbo. Darpa's Zatko has been working on a system
   of automatically identifying what he calls \"malicious missions\": insider
   activity aimed at stealing data from inside a company's firewall, whether
   it's a Dell PC remotely hijacked by a Chinese cyberspy or Bradley
   Mannings, the U.S. soldier accused of leaking classified documents about
   combat in Afghanistan to WikiLeaks. Zatko's system would monitor networks
   in real-time for just the sort of data-stealing behavior he would perform
   himself: steps like scouring large areas of the network for a certain
   file, dumping piles of data to external storage hardware or sending
   encrypted files out over the Internet. No single episode would signal a
   leak; instead, the software would link acts in a probabilistic chain,
   triggering an alert only if a string of events points to purposeful data
   theft.

    

   Some of that leaky behavior isn't what a casual observer might expect.
   Consider the cyber footprints left by Robert Hanssen, a former FBI agent
   serving a life sentence in a Colorado supermax prison for selling
   intelligence to the Soviets over two decades. Every few days Hanssen would
   stop his normal activities and make a single query to a server across the
   network, a pattern he repeated for years. That server, Zatko says, held
   the counterintelligence database. Hanssen was searching for himself, a
   routine check to see if he'd finally been found out.

    

   \"You put all these things together into the different components of the
   mission,\" says Zatko. \"I'm looking for these new rhythms, new tells, new
   interrelations and requirements.\"

    

   Cinder wasn't created to combat WikiLeaks-in fact, it predates WikiLeaks'
   biggest military scandals. But Zatko has nonetheless found himself
   squarely in opposition to Assange's mission-a strange face-off, given that
   the two men once traveled in the same hacker circles, during the years
   when Assange went by the hacker handle Mendax (a Latin reference to the
   \"splendidly deceptive\" in the poet Horace's Odes) and reveled in accessing
   corporate and government systems without authorization. Neither will
   reveal much about their past encounters, but Assange says that they \"were
   in the same milieu.\" Asked about Assange, Zatko says only, \"I have very
   pleasant memories of those old days.\"

    

   WikiLeaks' founder, in fact, seems to have trouble accepting that Mudge is
   working for the other side. \"He's a clever guy, and he's also highly
   ethical,\" says Assange. \"I suspect he would have concerns about creating a
   system to conceal genuine abuses.\" He dismisses Cinder as just another
   system of digital censorship. And those systems, he says, will always
   fail, just as China's Great Firewall can't stop well-informed and
   determined dissident Internet users. \"Censorship might work for the
   average person but not for highly motivated people,\" Assange says. \"And
   our people are highly motivated.\"

    

   *****

    

   Shutting down WikiLeaks wouldn't stop the growing movement of transparency
   agitators. They now have a nation-size ally: Iceland. Since WikiLeaks
   scored a major scoop unearthing the corrupt loans that helped destroy that
   country's largest bank, the volcanic island is fast on its way to becoming
   the conduit for a global flood of leaks.

    

   It began when Kaupthing Bank collapsed in October 2008-a calamitous chain
   reaction that has strapped Iceland with $128 billion in debts, around
   $400,000 per capita. Ten months later Bogi Agustsson, a Walter
   Cronkite-ish anchor for Icelandic national broadcaster RUV, appeared on
   the evening news and explained that a legal injunction had prevented the
   station from airing a prepared expose on Kaupthing. Viewers who wanted to
   see the material, he suggested, should visit a site called Wikileaks.org.

    

   Those who took Agustsson's advice found a summary of Kaupthing's loan book
   posted on the site, detailing more than $6 billion funneled from
   Kaupthing's coffers to its own proprietors and companies they owned, often
   with little or no collateral; $900 million went to Olafur Olafsson, a
   major investor in Kaupthing who, on his birthday, flew in Elton John from
   England, along with a grand piano, for a one-hour concert. \"The banks had
   been eaten from the inside out,\" says Kristinn Hrafnsson, a former
   investigative reporter in Reykjavik who now works with WikiLeaks.

    

   A government investigation is still going on; no criminal charges have
   been filed. But WikiLeaks became a household name in Iceland. In December
   2009 Assange and Daniel Domscheit-Berg, a German who then worked with
   WikiLeaks, were invited to keynote a free-speech conference in Reykjavik.
   Their talk echoed an idea from American cyberlibertarian John Perry
   Barlow, calling for a \"Switzerland of bits.\" Iceland, with its independent
   spirit and recent taste of explosive whistle-blowing, they suggested,
   could become the digital doppelga:nger of a tax haven: a safe harbor for
   transparency, where it's open season on government and business
   secrets-and leakers are protected by law.

    

   The idea might have gone nowhere if not for Birgitta Jonsdottir. Assange's
   message captivated the 43-year-old poet and self-styled
   \"realist-anarchist.\" She wasn't just another idealistic protester with a
   goth wardrobe and hipster haircut. In the chaotic political environment
   that followed the national financial crisis, Jonsdottir had been elected
   to Iceland's parliament, the Althingi, in April 2009.

    

   Working with the country's transparency activists, she pulled together the
   Icelandic Modern Media Initiative, or Immi. The initiative would bring to
   Iceland all the source-protection, freedom of information and transparency
   laws from around the world and even set up a Nobel-style international
   award for work in the field of free expression. Jonsdottir pushed through
   a unanimous resolution to create a series of bills to implement Immi. They
   would also make Iceland the most friendly legal base for whistleblowers on
   Earth.

    

   Velkomin, as Icelanders would say, to Leakistan.

    

   \"The more that companies resist, the more information will get out about
   them,\" says Jonsdottir when we meet in Reykjavik's Hressingarskalinn cafe,
   around the corner from the parliament building. \"They can't hide anymore.
   The war is over. They lost.\" In Jonsdottir's vision Iceland will attract
   both mainstream media and WikiLeaks-like organizations to move their data
   to Iceland, enjoying legal protection, just as another firm might
   incorporate in a tax-sheltering island in the Caribbean.

    

   She may be getting a bit ahead of herself. Immi has yet to become law,
   though it has backing from powerful figures, including both Iceland's
   minister of justice and the head of its progressive party. Even if it
   does, Immi likely wouldn't offer much legal protection to organizations
   whose assets and staff aren't physically in the country; they could still
   be sued anywhere else in the world, given that their digital and print
   publications could appear globally. Immi could also face resistance from
   the U.S. and the EU-particularly when it comes to military matters. As
   Marc Thiessen, a conservative pundit, wrote on the blog of the American
   Enterprise Institute in August, \"Immi calls into question Iceland's
   seriousness as a NATO ally, and Iceland needs to realize there will be
   consequences for its actions.\" There could be a backlash for exposing
   corporate secrets, too. Alastair Mullis, a professor of law at East Anglia
   University in Britain, says, \"It's possible that Iceland will become the
   defamation capital of the world.\"

    

   Jonsdottir and fellow Immi creator Smari McCarthy are pushing ahead
   anyway. Immi, they say, doesn't fashion new laws; it cherry-picks existing
   statutes from around the world (source shields from Sweden, libel
   protection from New York State, protected communications with journalists
   from Belgium, among them). \"We're basing our legislation on laws that have
   already withstood attacks,\" says Jonsdottir. Defamation and other concerns
   like child pornography and copyright violations, she argues, would still
   be illegal in Iceland and wouldn't be sheltered.

    

   Nor is the idea to protect WikiLeaks itself, Jonsdottir points out. The
   site doesn't need help: Its data and submissions process are carefully
   encrypted, and its infrastructure is spread over enough
   countries-including some servers in a bombproof, underground bunker in
   Sweden-that taking it offline is already nearly impossible.

   Instead Immi would foster a new wave of media organizations and
   whistleblower outlets that don't rely on WikiLeaks' technical savvy or
   resources. Already a handful of smaller, leak-focused conduits-regional
   sites like Africa-focused SaharaReporters or Thaileaks.info-have published
   damning data. Immi's McCarthy says he's been approached by media
   organizations from Rwanda to Chechnya. German WikiLeaks staffer Daniel
   Domscheit-Berg, disgruntled with Assange's laser focus on infrequent
   megaleaks, has left the organization along with several others to create
   his own spinoff. \"In the end there must be a thousand WikiLeaks,\" he told
   Der Spiegel in September.

    

   Iceland certainly has the infrastructure for a lot of informational
   mischief. Half an hour outside Reykjavik, on a landscape that resembles
   Mars covered in snow, the Thor Data Center is preparing for an influx of
   bytes. By 2011 it hopes to have thousands of servers in its
   aluminum-plant-turned-server-farm, powered by ultracheap geothermal energy
   and cooled by free arctic air. Iceland's biggest Web host, ironically
   named 1984 Web Hosting, is excited about the boost Immi could give its
   business. \"I created this company to prevent thought control,\" says Mordur
   Ingolfsson, its chief executive. \"In my humble opinion, Immi is the most
   important thing to happen to this godforsaken island since the Sagas were
   written.\" (That's 600-plus years.)

    

   Jonsdottir agrees: \"WikiLeaks was an important icebreaker. It was the tip.
   Immi is the rest of the wedge, and it will open up everything.\" (She is
   less thrilled to learn that Assange speaks of Immi as his personal
   creation.)I ask Assange how he expects companies to cope with a world
   where hundreds of WikiLeak-alikes may soon exist. His three-part
   prescription is earnest-if a bit patronizing: \"Do things to encourage
   leaks from dishonest competitors. Be as open and honest as possible. Treat
   your employees well.\"

   He also wants to clear up a misunderstanding. Despite his revolutionary
   reputation, he's not antibusiness. He bristles at the media's focus on his
   teenage years as a computer hacker who broke into dozens of systems, from
   the Department of Defense to Nortel, and was eventually convicted on 25
   charges of computer fraud and fined thousands of dollars.

    

   Instead, he prefers to think of himself as an entrepreneur. He tells the
   story of a free-speech-focused Internet service provider he cofounded in
   1993, known as Suburbia. It was, to hear him tell it, the blueprint for
   WikiLeaks-in one instance, when the Church of Scientology demanded to know
   who had posted antichurch information on one site, he refused to help.
   (\"He has titanium balls,\" says David Gerard, that site's creator.) \"I saw
   it early on, without realizing it: potentiating people to reveal their
   information, creating a conduit,\" Assange says. \"Without having any other
   robust publisher in the market, people came to us.\"

    

   Leaks merely lubricate the free market, he says, settling into the couch
   and clearly enjoying giving me a lecture on economics. (Later, as a
   45-minute interview pushes into two hours, he ignores his handler, who
   keeps urging him to leave for his next appointment.) He cites the example
   of the Chinese Sanlu Group, whose milk powder contained toxic melamine in
   2008. While poisoning its customers, Sanlu also gained an advantage over
   competitors and might have forced more of them to taint their products,
   too, or go bankrupt-if Sanlu hadn't been exposed in the Chinese press. \"In
   the struggle between open and honest companies and dishonest and closed
   companies, we're creating a tremendous reputational tax on the unethical
   companies,\" he says.

    

   Of course, Assange's tax isn't as equitable as it sounds. He alone decides
   where to apply the penalty, choosing the targets and when to expose them
   with a touch of theatrical grandstanding-and with zero accountability. For
   better-and worse-WikiLeaks has become the Julian Assange Show. As a
   photographer begins shooting, Assange wonders aloud if the coat he's
   wearing might have been produced by a labor-exploiting company. A few
   minutes later he jokes about his \"messiah complex.\"

    

   Like any true believer, Assange sees his work in simple terms. Markets, he
   reminds me, can't exist without information. Business will come to
   appreciate what he offers. And if that requires a few painful scandals in
   the process?

    

   Assange doesn't miss a beat. \"Pain for the guilty.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Wednesday, December 08, 2010 19:39
   To: analysts
   Subject: Random Business Idea - Network Security

    

   I'm sure this has been thought of before at STRATFOR so excuse the
   redundancy. I was reading a solid Forbes article on Assange and it said
   that a large number of deep pocket corporations were looking into
   leak-focused network security after these Wikileak episodes.

   I was wondering if it was possible for us to get some of that
   \"leak-focused\" gravy train. This is an obvious fear sale, so that's a good
   thing. And we have something to offer that the IT security companies
   don't, mainly our focus on counter-intelligence and surveillance that Fred
   and Stick know better than anyone on the planet.

   We do a lot of good work with all the personal/executive security analysis
   as well. Could we develop some ideas and procedures on the idea of
   \"leak-focused\" network security that focuses on preventing one's own
   employees from leaking sensitive information.

   The point here is that I am sure there are certain procedures and
   precautions that companies should employ that go beyond installing network
   security network to deal with potential leaks. In fact, Im not so sure
   this is an IT problem that requires an IT solution.

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-12-09 07:34:50",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/875135_re-random-business-idea-network-security-.html","kevin.stech@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
877901,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   Sean, just to be clear

   Your point is that Anonymous hasn't mattered?  Is your argument that
   hackers haven't mattered either?  because if Anonymous is a mob of hackers
   as you argue, how haven't they mattered to their targets?  what about all
   the money spent fighting them?  and as Tristan just pointed out - how
   about HBGary Federal?  He said the CEO's SSN and address were posted on
   Twitter.  What about all the sensitive emails that were lost?  We have no
   way of knowing what was in those emails, or how they are being used to
   make money at the expense of HBGary.  I have always agreed that they
   haven't reached a level of threat to the US, but that surely doesn't mean
   they won't.  And there are quite a few countries, organizations, and
   people below that rather high standard who could not withstand an attack,
   including an email purge of personal emails onto the web. 

   On 10/24/11 7:33 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
     the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
     only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
     responsible.

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
     responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
     intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
     just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
     indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
     department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

     Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

     Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
     SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication
     devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining
     computer network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while
     SIGINT may be used with other intelligence disciplines in order to
     identify a hacker, it is not necessary and is no more related than any
     other intel discipline. SIGINT could help you identify a computer
     devices (not the operator) emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis,
     which is also separate from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could
     help in providing methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT
     wouldn't obtain those messages.

     In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
     are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and
     technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

     NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
     technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
     resources in R&D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA.
     But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

     Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
     for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing
     operations on the scale of causing physical damage to extremely
     sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that
     matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most
     prolific example of a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted
     mainly outside of the cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of
     this doesn't matter? Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks
     have physically damaged secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think
     you are downplaying too much the significance of exposing corporate
     secrets, halting businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by
     defacing their websites.

     On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
           arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
           foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected?
           No, of course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so
           good to be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers. 
           I'm saying they are more detectable than you think.  There is no
           such thing as truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will
           that trail in every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but
           it can lead to a place, an organization, and often, an
           individual. 

           2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
           responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
           cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this
           case HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
           capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking
           hackers. NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers
           but it does not make it SIGINT.

           Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

           The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
           people assume there is no attribution because there is no
           response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
           this, because no attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes,
           they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for lack of
           response, then I think they are wrong. 

           3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
           laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
           involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way
           there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is
           one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to
           trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood
           with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more
           complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational
           surveillance, developing exploits, developing programs and code,
           gaining access, exploiting that, and carrying out an attack. 
           Discovering exploits and writing code can be done entirely
           offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel agencies.
           Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point of the
           exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point is,
           if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
           remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
           IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
           cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
           more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
           linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
           Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
           to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
           things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time
           for your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the
           target, a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur
           without network activity. Look at everything that went into
           Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person
           with a new laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small
           part of necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't
           think we are discussing operations on the scale of causing
           physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is
           an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so
           far has not mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
           evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
           possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation, that
           even the best law enforcement and national intelligence agencies
           have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that
           it's very difficult for someone to successfully use Anonymous as a
           cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute
           it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is effective in identifying
           hackers?I don't, but I'm confident they are far better than you
           are allowing for.    They may not choose to cover it if it is
           small scale crime, however. 
           On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
             cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
             that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
             with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
             the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from
             China, may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese
             government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
             government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate
             there is little capability to distinguish.

             It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
             operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets
             from SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual
             responsible for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have
             turned to SIGINT organizations for collections on computer
             related material, but this was due to the US being behind in
             cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
             However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of
             years.

             Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As
             an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go
             to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the
             online activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
             accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
             etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never
             use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
             description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible
             security cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

             Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
             these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied
             to specific computer-related activities because of the
             difficulty in identifying individuals.

             I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be blown,
             would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a
             common participant in \"Anonymous\" activities, was working for a
             State? Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that
             State agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter
             buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

             On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
               bit)

               1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
               actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't,
               but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first
               real case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
               people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
               as a serious or strategic threat. 

               2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
               actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as
               a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could
               probably still be attributed if important enough to those
               agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings this
               issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies they
               did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an
               publicized attacks in the past, even before they were carried
               out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
               sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
               coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted
               Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
               damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data
               security, but this is no different than the OC groups stealing
               your credit card information.  LE will go after them, have
               some success, but the threat is not that large. 
               On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                 Link: themeData

                 I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
                 have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
                 nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
                 threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
                 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                 most of the cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a Robin
                 Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when it comes
                 to their interactions with the cartels is the dubious role
                 they play: at the same time they can be fighting crime by
                 revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can also put
                 lives in risk.

                 However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
                 Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth,
                 can conduct a cyber attack under \"Anonymous\" is worrisome.
                 (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                 If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
                 websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
                 know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
                 interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
                 far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries
                 are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
                 them to achieve any particular goal?

                 On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                   everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                   doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                   caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on
                   journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding
                   of the situation.  This has long term implications in not
                   just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
                   their actions and they act without understanding the
                   environment.  It was the same when they released
                   information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
                   Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                     discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on
                     what type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The
                     video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
                     personal information on cartels as well as states a
                     member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
                     outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
                     kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous
                     Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be
                     an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
                     Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
                     speculation.

                     Link: themeData
                     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                     distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                     government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                     Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's criminal
                     cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
                     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
                     most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats
                     towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
                     releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
                     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
                     cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a
                     fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In
                     the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                     mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                     reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
                     member are not met. The potential of conflict between
                     Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a unique
                     threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at
                     online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on
                     cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

                     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                     security threat to Mexican cartels.
                          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                     exploit online media
                          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico
                     to lash out at cartels

                     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                     pose a threat
                          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to
                     possess identifiable information on cartel members
                          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous
                     could acquire on cartels
                          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                     communications, identifiable information on cartels
                     members have to be considered in the realm of
                     possibilities for
                                 Anonymous
                                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability
                     to reveal illicit online activity (child pornography
                     rings)

                     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                     ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                     result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                     limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
                     in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                     possible retribution. They may not even know the impact
                     of any online assault of cartels.
                          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                     journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                     understand some of these individuals are forced to
                     collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                     often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                     halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals
                     will not have a significant impact on cartel            
                           operations. Politicans have been accused of
                     working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor)
                     before, however there has yet to be any consequences
                     from this.
                          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                     extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                     operations.
                             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                     science community before, coercing computer science
                     majors into working for them.
                             o    This provides the cartels with the
                     possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                      

                     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                       idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                       here.

                       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern
                       with the discussion:

                            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                       that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                            o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a
                       difference between stealing bank records from
                       government computers and overloading www.loszetas.com
                       main page.
                            o     There's no thought out process of what sort
                       of information could anon have on the cartels. What
                       kind of info is kept online and accessible to
                       potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
                       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
                       politicians and businessmen who need to worry about
                       what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                       bloggers and media were killed in previous instances.
                       Was it because they revealed operational details,
                       because they acted as informants, because they exposed
                       links with officials or because they somehow sullied
                       the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                       information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                            o     Once you identify this info - think about
                       if anon can realistically access it and disseminate it
                       so it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have
                       any intelligence capacity except for the technical
                       ability by a very small number of its members to
                       infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
                       information. Now what kind of information would a
                       cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
                       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
                       information be found? Government databases? Once we
                       know what kind of information is accessible, we can
                       also know more about the consequences of
                       dissemination.
                            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                       Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                       risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may
                       not understand the difference between an anon hacker
                       and a blogger.

                       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                         -------- Original Message --------

                          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                             From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
                         Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                               To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

                         you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                         going to need a lot more work

                         You need to lay out:

                         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                         trigger section is unclear
                         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                         is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                         capabilities
                         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                         security anything
                         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                         kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                         their connections

                         I also just want to point out that we have
                         reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very
                         least has some significant levels of sophistication
                         in their online presence, to include the use of
                         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
                         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also
                         conduct business online, in a protected fashion.

                         Karen Hooper
                         Latin America Analyst
                         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                         c: 512.750.7234
                         STRATFOR
                         www.stratfor.com
                         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         Link: themeData

                         Trigger

                         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy,
                         hackers. Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group
                         famous for...?, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                         Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
                         criminal cartels, including a video released
                         depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
                         screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video
                         release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                         criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing
                         identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers,
                         police, politicians, and journalists who collude
                         with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los
                         Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
                         face consequences. The potential of conflict between
                         Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                         unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                         different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
                         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
                         little experience in handling. i believe that
                         Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
                         not believe for a second that the cartels have no
                         experience with hackers.

                          

                         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
                         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect
                         Anonymous' reaction if their demands of releasing a
                         kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
                         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
                         threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so
                         we understand who this guy is and why/how he was
                         abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of
                         possessing revealing information on cartel members
                         and operations are true, cartels will likely respond
                         with violence against individuals revealed as
                         opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
                         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure
                         of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force
                         the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat
                         complexity i don't understand what this means. You
                         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                         effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
                         against Anonymous remains unanswered . However,
                         cartels will continue their threats against any
                         individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
                         or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here.
                         against the cartels.

                          

                         The Battle Space

                         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                         separate realities from each other. Anonymous
                         operates solely in sphere of the computer networks.
                         Anonymous does not experience geographical
                         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
                         exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely
                         true. They are physical people tho live in the real
                         world. They have names and addresses - although most
                         of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                         base consists of their technical capabilities in
                         hacking. Any information connected to the Internet
                         is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
                         the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst
                         of Mexico's population could be quite difficult.
                          Remember that most of what Anonymous has done are
                         DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
                         company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                         it does not really matter if you don't run
                         operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money
                         via e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on
                         the web than the jihadists.)

                         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but
                         it's power base consists of the perceived anonymity
                         that its members believe themselves to have, real or
                         otherwise, by operating through the internet. This
                         gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
                         and everything to practice general dickery. As the
                         popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
                         Only a fraction of the large web of people who
                         identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of
                         serious IT capability. 

                         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so
                         far has been from targeted arrests by Law
                         Enforcement Agencies.

                         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the
                         streets in US and Mexican cities. They are run as a
                         business, always looking to maximize profits and
                         expand. But they are bricks and mortar commerce.
                         Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
                         and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that
                         from insight. There is no reason to assume that Los
                         Zetas don't have a similar capacity.  Their power
                         base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                         escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas,
                         are experienced in facing different types of
                         threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands
                         of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each
                         other, cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement
                         Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
                         the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted
                         media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
                         bloggers in order to cover details of their
                         operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng
                         for this discussion. You need to focus on the
                         possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just
                         assume they have no cyber presence.

                          

                         Anonymous' Weapons

                         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous'
                         actions against criminal cartels has yet to be seen.
                         Anonymous' only ability to combat cartels lay in
                         information operations, mainly disseminating
                         sensitive information on cartels and propagating
                         anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced
                         websites in Mexico you mean so far and that we know
                         of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The
                         significance of a targeted information operations
                         campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
                         overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels
                         view main stream media outlets and social media
                         blogs as such a threat to their operations, that
                         they have continued to target journalists and
                         bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas
                         was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly,
                         on the body of a blogger. The message threatened any
                         users who denounce cartels on blogging websites.
                         getting repetitive here, and it's not really
                         addressing the subheading

                         As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                         internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is
                         ample reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of
                         possessing information they threaten to release. By
                         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
                         Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of
                         those individuals. Anonymous's ability to
                         disseminate sensitive information is limited by what
                         is available via the Internet. Government computers
                         connected to the Internet should always be
                         considered a possibility of an attack. However, as
                         with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                         governments computer networks, information available
                         to Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy
                         to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This
                         isn't clear at all

                          

                         Cartel's Defense

                                     A counter response to the video? by the
                         cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                         claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest
                         Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
                         hackers so... how has there not been a counter
                         response? also this undermines your statements above
                         about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
                         underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
                         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The
                         answer to that could very well give you some
                         indication to the technical ability of the cartels .
                         As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
                         wide web , the cartels will face a number of
                         challenges which rarely are posed for them Again,
                         how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
                         dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can
                         assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they
                         are working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers
                         threatening cartels, can operate in any region of
                         the world. Personal information including locations
                         is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it
                         or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                         figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
                         Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with
                         their online enemy, if they can physically reach out
                         to them. Or start employing hackers of their own
                         under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
                         Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                                     Cartels have been known to coerce the
                         services of Mexican citizens with a technical
                         background. Recruiting the help of computer science
                         majors through personal threats has been reported in
                         the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
                         Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
                         and drug trafficking, they will likely need the
                         assistance of technical experts to help combat any
                         threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                         bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
                         is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any
                         hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
                         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more
                         technical experience and resources than cartels,
                         struggle to find hackers through investigations. A)
                         How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the
                         guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that
                         not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                                     In order to compete with an online foe,
                         cartels will likely continue counter tactics they
                         are most familiar with, brute force. Cartels are
                         still capable of their HUMINT operations within
                         Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't
                         be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
                         communities will likely be targeted and interrogated
                         by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
                         of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
                         online media into submission i'm not really seeing
                         the online media-international hacking group
                         connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                         inflict harm, is something computer hackers have
                         unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether
                         the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence
                         of Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels
                         are able to seek out and capture members of the
                         hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the
                         collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any
                         inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

               --

               Sean Noonan

               Tactical Analyst

               Office: +1 512-279-9479

               Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

               Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

               www.stratfor.com

           --

           Sean Noonan

           Tactical Analyst

           Office: +1 512-279-9479

           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

           www.stratfor.com

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
","2011-10-25 02:47:49",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/877901_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
878708,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   Yes, in response to your first question. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Colby Martin\" <colby.martin@stratfor.com>
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Monday, October 24, 2011 7:47:49 PM
   Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels

   Sean, just to be clear

   Your point is that Anonymous hasn't mattered?  Is your argument that
   hackers haven't mattered either?  because if Anonymous is a mob of hackers
   as you argue, how haven't they mattered to their targets?  what about all
   the money spent fighting them?  and as Tristan just pointed out - how
   about HBGary Federal?  He said the CEO's SSN and address were posted on
   Twitter.  What about all the sensitive emails that were lost?  We have no
   way of knowing what was in those emails, or how they are being used to
   make money at the expense of HBGary.  I have always agreed that they
   haven't reached a level of threat to the US, but that surely doesn't mean
   they won't.  And there are quite a few countries, organizations, and
   people below that rather high standard who could not withstand an attack,
   including an email purge of personal emails onto the web. 

   On 10/24/11 7:33 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
     the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
     only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
     responsible.

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
     responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
     intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
     just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
     indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
     department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

     Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

     Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
     SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication
     devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining
     computer network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while
     SIGINT may be used with other intelligence disciplines in order to
     identify a hacker, it is not necessary and is no more related than any
     other intel discipline. SIGINT could help you identify a computer
     devices (not the operator) emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis,
     which is also separate from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could
     help in providing methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT
     wouldn't obtain those messages.

     In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
     are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and
     technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

     NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
     technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
     resources in R&D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA.
     But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

     Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
     for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing
     operations on the scale of causing physical damage to extremely
     sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that
     matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most
     prolific example of a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted
     mainly outside of the cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of
     this doesn't matter? Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks
     have physically damaged secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think
     you are downplaying too much the significance of exposing corporate
     secrets, halting businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by
     defacing their websites.

     On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
           arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
           foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected?
           No, of course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so
           good to be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers. 
           I'm saying they are more detectable than you think.  There is no
           such thing as truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will
           that trail in every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but
           it can lead to a place, an organization, and often, an
           individual. 

           2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
           responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
           cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this
           case HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
           capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking
           hackers. NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers
           but it does not make it SIGINT.

           Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

           The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
           people assume there is no attribution because there is no
           response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
           this, because no attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes,
           they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for lack of
           response, then I think they are wrong. 

           3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
           laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
           involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way
           there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is
           one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to
           trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood
           with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more
           complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational
           surveillance, developing exploits, developing programs and code,
           gaining access, exploiting that, and carrying out an attack. 
           Discovering exploits and writing code can be done entirely
           offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel agencies.
           Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point of the
           exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point is,
           if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
           remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
           IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
           cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
           more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
           linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
           Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
           to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
           things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time
           for your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the
           target, a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur
           without network activity. Look at everything that went into
           Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person
           with a new laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small
           part of necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't
           think we are discussing operations on the scale of causing
           physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is
           an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so
           far has not mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
           evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
           possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation, that
           even the best law enforcement and national intelligence agencies
           have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that
           it's very difficult for someone to successfully use Anonymous as a
           cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute
           it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is effective in identifying
           hackers?I don't, but I'm confident they are far better than you
           are allowing for.    They may not choose to cover it if it is
           small scale crime, however. 
           On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
             cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
             that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
             with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
             the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from
             China, may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese
             government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
             government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate
             there is little capability to distinguish.

             It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
             operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets
             from SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual
             responsible for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have
             turned to SIGINT organizations for collections on computer
             related material, but this was due to the US being behind in
             cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
             However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of
             years.

             Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As
             an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go
             to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the
             online activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
             accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
             etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never
             use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
             description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible
             security cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

             Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
             these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied
             to specific computer-related activities because of the
             difficulty in identifying individuals.

             I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be blown,
             would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a
             common participant in \"Anonymous\" activities, was working for a
             State? Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that
             State agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter
             buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

             On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
               bit)

               1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
               actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't,
               but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first
               real case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
               people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
               as a serious or strategic threat. 

               2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
               actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as
               a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could
               probably still be attributed if important enough to those
               agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings this
               issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies they
               did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an
               publicized attacks in the past, even before they were carried
               out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
               sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
               coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted
               Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
               damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data
               security, but this is no different than the OC groups stealing
               your credit card information.  LE will go after them, have
               some success, but the threat is not that large. 
               On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                 I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
                 have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
                 nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
                 threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
                 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                 most of the cases, they are the a**gooda** guys, sort of a
                 Robin Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when it
                 comes to their interactions with the cartels is the dubious
                 role they play: at the same time they can be fighting crime
                 by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can also
                 put lives in risk.

                 However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
                 Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth,
                 can conduct a cyber attack under a**Anonymousa** is
                 worrisome.
                 (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                 If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
                 websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
                 know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
                 interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
                 far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries
                 are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
                 them to achieve any particular goal?

                 On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                   everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                   doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                   caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on
                   journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding
                   of the situation.  This has long term implications in not
                   just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
                   their actions and they act without understanding the
                   environment.  It was the same when they released
                   information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
                   Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                     discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on
                     what type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The
                     video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
                     personal information on cartels as well as states a
                     member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
                     outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
                     kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous
                     Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be
                     an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
                     Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
                     speculation.

                     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                     distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                     government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                     Internet with a statements denouncing Mexicoa**s
                     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
                     individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October
                     10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes
                     bold threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico.
                     Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
                     police, politicians, and journalists who collude with
                     criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
                     release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
                     consequences. In the Anonymousa** video, this coming
                     November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could expect
                     Anonymousa** reaction if their demands of releasing a
                     kidnapped member are not met. The potential of conflict
                     between Mexicoa**s criminal cartels and hackers,
                     presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of
                     cartels lashing out at online bloggers, but I havena**t
                     seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
                     from hackers before. 

                     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                         a*-c-    Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                     security threat to Mexican cartels.
                         a*-c-    Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                     exploit online media
                         a*-c-    Anonymous hackers do not have to be in
                     Mexico to lash out at cartels

                     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                     pose a threat
                         a*-c-    It is unknown if Anonymousa**s claims to
                     possess identifiable information on cartel members
                         a*-c-    It is unknown what information Anonymous
                     could acquire on cartels
                         a*-c-    Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                     communications, identifiable information on cartels
                     members have to be considered in the realm of
                     possibilities for
                                 Anonymous
                                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated ita**s
                     ability to reveal illicit online activity (child
                     pornography rings)

                     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                     ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                     result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                     limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
                     in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                     possible retribution. They may not even know the impact
                     of any online assault of cartels.
                         a*-c-    Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                     journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                     understand some of these individuals are forced to
                     collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                     often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                     halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals
                     will not have a significant impact on cartel            
                           operations. Politicans have been accused of
                     working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor)
                     before, however there has yet to be any consequences
                     from this.
                         a*-c-    Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                     extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                     operations.
                             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                     science community before, coercing computer science
                     majors into working for them.
                             o    This provides the cartels with the
                     possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                      

                     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                       idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                       here.

                       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern
                       with the discussion:

                           a*-c-    we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                       that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                           a*-c-    \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a
                       difference between stealing bank records from
                       government computers and overloading www.loszetas.com
                       main page.
                           a*-c-    There's no thought out process of what
                       sort of information could anon have on the cartels.
                       What kind of info is kept online and accessible to
                       potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
                       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
                       politicians and businessmen who need to worry about
                       what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                       bloggers and media were killed in previous instances.
                       Was it because they revealed operational details,
                       because they acted as informants, because they exposed
                       links with officials or because they somehow sullied
                       the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                       information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                           a*-c-    Once you identify this info - think about
                       if anon can realistically access it and disseminate it
                       so it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have
                       any intelligence capacity except for the technical
                       ability by a very small number of its members to
                       infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
                       information. Now what kind of information would a
                       cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
                       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
                       information be found? Government databases? Once we
                       know what kind of information is accessible, we can
                       also know more about the consequences of
                       dissemination.
                           a*-c-    What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                       Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                       risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may
                       not understand the difference between an anon hacker
                       and a blogger.

                       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                         -------- Original Message --------

                          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                             From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
                         Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                               To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

                         you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                         going to need a lot more work

                         You need to lay out:

                         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                         trigger section is unclear
                         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                         is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                         capabilities
                         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                         security anything
                         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                         kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                         their connections

                         I also just want to point out that we have
                         reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very
                         least has some significant levels of sophistication
                         in their online presence, to include the use of
                         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
                         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also
                         conduct business online, in a protected fashion.

                         Karen Hooper
                         Latin America Analyst
                         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                         c: 512.750.7234
                         STRATFOR
                         www.stratfor.com
                         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         --
                         Sean Noonan
                         Tactical Analyst
                         Office: +1 512-279-9479
                         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
                         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
                         www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-25 03:18:15",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/878708_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
882131,"Re: Random Business Idea - Network Security
","   That is the one...

   Forbes mentions how companies are now focusing on \"leak-proof\" network
   security. Interesting. I think that we would have a possible in there
   since that is not just about IT. But I don't really know what I am talking
   about.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Kevin Stech\" <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, December 9, 2010 12:11:02 AM
   Subject: RE: Random Business Idea - Network Security

   I believe this is the article Marko is talking about.

    

   WikiLeaks' next target is big business, Assange says

   Andy Greenberg, Forbes.com

   Date: Wed. Dec. 1 2010 7:39 PM ET

   http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/World/20101201/forbes-assange-interview-101201/

    

   In a rare interview, Assange tells Forbes that the release of Pentagon and
   State Department documents are just the beginning. His next target: big
   business.

    

   Early next year, Julian Assange says, a major American bank will suddenly
   find itself turned inside out. Tens of thousands of its internal documents
   will be exposed on Wikileaks.org with no polite requests for executivesa**
   response or other forewarnings. The data dump will lay bare the finance
   firma**s secrets on the Web for every customer, every competitor, every
   regulator to examine and pass judgment on.

    

   When? Which bank? What documents? Cagey as always, Assange wona**t say, so
   his claim is impossible to verify. But he has always followed through on
   his threats. Sitting for a rare interview in a London garden flat on a
   rainy November day, he compares what he is ready to unleash to the damning
   e-mails that poured out of the Enron trial: a comprehensive vivisection of
   corporate bad behavior. a**You could call it the ecosystem of
   corruption,a** he says, refusing to characterize the coming release in
   more detail. a**But ita**s also all the regular decision making that turns
   a blind eye to and supports unethical practices: the oversight thata**s
   not done, the priorities of executives, how they think theya**re
   fulfilling their own self-interest.a**

    

   This is Assange: a moral ideologue, a champion of openness, a control
   freak. He pauses to thinka**a process that occasionally puts our
   conversation on hold for awkwardly long interludes. The slim 39-year-old
   WikiALeaks founder wears a navy suit over his 6-foot-2 frame, and his once
   shaggy white hair, recently dyed brown, has been cropped to a sandy
   patchwork of blonde and tan. He says he colors it when hea**s a**being
   tracked.a**

    

   a**These big-package releases. There should be a cute name for them,a** he
   says, then pauses again.

    

   a**Megaleaks?a** I suggest, trying to move things along.

    

   a**Yes, thata**s gooda**megaleaks.a** His voice is a hoarse, Aussie-tinged
   baritone. As a teenage hacker in Melbourne its pitch helped him
   impersonate IT staff to trick companiesa** employees into revealing their
   passwords over the phone, and today ita**s deeper still after a recent
   bout of flu. a**These megaleaks . . . theya**re an important phenomenon.
   And theya**re only going to increase.a**

    

   Hea**ll see to that. By the time youa**re reading this another giant dump
   of classified U.S. documents may well be public. Assange refused to
   discuss the leak at the time FORBES went to press, but he claims it is
   part of a series that will have the greatest impact of any WikiLeaks
   release yet. Assange calls the shots: choosing the media outlets that
   splash his exposA(c)s, holding them to a strict embargo, running the leaks
   simultaneously on his site. Past megaleaks from his information insurgency
   over the last year have included 76,000 secret Afghan war documents and
   another trove of 392,000 files from the Iraq war. Those data explosions,
   the largest classified military security breaches in history, have roused
   antiwar activists and enraged the Pentagon.

    

   Admire Assange or revile him, he is the prophet of a coming age of
   involuntary transparency. Having exposed military misconduct on a grand
   scale, he is now gunning for corporate America. Does Assange have
   unpublished, damaging documents on pharmaceutical companies? Yes, he says.
   Finance? Yes, many more than the single bank scandal wea**ve been
   discussing. Energy? Plenty, on everything from BP to an Albanian oil firm
   that he says attempted to sabotage its competitorsa** wells. Like
   informational IEDs, these damaging revelations can be detonated at will.

    

   Long gone are the days when Daniel Ellsberg had to photocopy thousands of
   Vietnam War documents to leak the Pentagon Papers. Modern whistleblowers,
   or employees with a grudge, can zip up their troves of incriminating
   documents on a laptop, USB stick or portable hard drive, spirit them out
   through personal e-mail accounts or online drop sitesa**or simply submit
   them directly to WikiLeaks.

    

   What do large companies think of the threat? If theya**re terrified,
   theya**re not saying. None would talk to us. Nor would the U.S. Chamber of
   Commerce. WikiLeaks a**is high profile, legally Ainsulated and
   transnational,a** says former Commerce Department official James Lewis,
   who follows cybersecurity for the Center for Strategic & International
   Studies. a**That adds up to a reputational risk that companies didna**t
   have to think about a year ago.a**

    

   Already U.S. laws wrapped into financial reform this year expand
   whistleblower incentives to offer six- and seven-digit rewards to staffers
   in any industry who report malfeasance. WikiALeaks adds another, new form
   of corporate data breach: It offers the conscience-stricken and vindictive
   alike a chance to publish documents largely unfiltered, without censors or
   personal repercussions, thanks to privacy and encryption technologies that
   make anonymity easier than ever before. WikiALeaksa** technical and
   ideological example has inspired copycats from Africa to China and rallied
   transparency advocates to push for a new, legal promised land in the
   unlikely haven of Iceland. Ita**s also fueling a race in the
   cyberAsecurity industry and in Washington to find technology that can plug
   information leaks once for all.

    

   Today Assange looks tired, his eyes narrowed and the skin beneath them
   puffy, as if hea**s unused to even Englanda**s gloomy daylight. He has no
   permanent home. a**Wea**re like a traveling production company; everyone
   moves somewhere, and we put on a production,a** he sighs. a**We havena**t
   had any rest since April.a** In Sweden, where many of the groupa**s
   servers are based, a warrant has now been issued for his arrest on rape
   charges. Hea**s denied the accusations, arguing they amount to smear
   tactics. Hea**s also afraid to set foot in several other countries,
   including the U.S., fearing that officials will find reasons to detain
   him. No question that WikiALeaks would be in trouble if he were jailed: A
   spokeswoman says it has a a**contingency plan,a** but without Assange
   there is no public face. Meanwhile, his resources have been drained by
   defections from his organization; some old friends and associates have
   taken issue with his autocratic style.

    

   None of which has stopped him from picking new fights. The promised
   release of bank documents would be the largest assault by WikiLeaks on the
   corporate sector, and Assange says the business community should expect
   plenty of sequels. In early October the site shut down its
   document-submission system; Assange says it was receiving more information
   than it could find resources to publish, thousands of additions a day at
   some points. The total is more gigabytes of data than he can count. a**Our
   pipeline of leaks has been increasing exponentially as our profile
   rises,a** he says, drawing a curve upward in the air with one hand.

    

   If even a fraction of his claims are borne out, hea**s already sitting on
   a crypt of data any three-letter spy agency would kill for. The worlda**s
   most vocal transparency advocate is now one of the worlda**s biggest
   keepers of secrets. And about half of those revelations, says Assange,
   relate to the private sector.

    

   Over the last four years he has been so busy embarrassing various
   governments, from Washington to the corrupt Kenyan regime of Daniel arap
   Moi, that many forget the corporate scandals already on WikiLeaksa**
   trophy wall. In January 2008 the site posted documents alleging that the
   Swiss bank Julius Baer hid clientsa** profits from even the Swiss
   government, concealing them in what seemed to be shell companies in the
   Cayman Islands. The bank filed a lawsuit against WikiLeaks for publishing
   data stolen from its clients. Baer later dropped the suita**but managed to
   stir up embarrassing publicity for itself. The next year WikiLeaks
   published documents from a pharma trade group implying that its lobbyists
   were receiving confidential documents from and exerting influence over a
   World Health Organization project to fund drug research in the developing
   world. The resulting attention helped crater the WHO project.

    

   In September 2009 commodities giant Trafigura filed an injunction that
   prevented British media from mentioning a damaging internal report. The
   memo showed the company had dumped tons of toxic waste in the Ivory Coast,
   chemicals that allegedly sickened 100,000 locals. But it couldna**t stop
   WikiLeaks from publishing the information. Trafigura eventually paid more
   than $200 million in settlements.

    

   How can an American corporation respond to a Wiki attack? Lawsuits wona**t
   work: WikiLeaks is legally shielded in the U.S. by its role as a mere
   conduit for documents. Even if a company somehow won a judgment against
   WikiLeaks, that wouldna**t shut it down. Assange spreads the sitea**s
   assets over many countries. a**Therea**s no single target to drop a bomb
   on,a** says Eric Goldman, a law professor at Santa Clara University.

    

   The best protection? With a dash of irony Icelandic WikiALeaks staffer
   Kristinn Hrafnsson suggests that companies change their ways to avoid
   targeting. a**They should resist the temptation to enter into
   corruption,a** he says. Don Tapscott, coauthor of The Naked Corporation
   (Free Press, 2003), agrees. His simplistic conclusion: a**Open your own
   kimono. Youa**re going to be naked. So you have to dig deep, look at your
   whole operation, make sure that integrity is part of your bones.a**

    

   Most corporations, instead, are turning to cybersecurity to shield their
   private parts. Despite dozens of calls to companies in tech, energy and
   finance, none wanted to talk about antileaking strategies. But a Forrester
   Research study found that about a quarter of companies in the U.S., the
   U.K., France, Germany and Canada were implementing leak-Afocused security
   software in 2010, and another third are considering that option. A study
   last year by the Ponemon Institute, a privacy-research consultancy in
   Traverse City, Mich., found that 60% of employees admit to taking
   sensitive data before they leave a company.

    

   *****

    

   Some of the more intriguing antileak work is being done by Uncle Sam. In
   an unmarked government building on the edge of a residential Arlington,
   Va. neighborhood, a cybersecurity researcher named Peiter Zatko shows just
   how easily leaks can occur. He lays out a blow-by-blow history of one
   insider data theft: The suspect searched broadly over the network to find
   anything related to critical infrastructure, then returned to manually
   probe a few interesting files. a**Then he walked away with enough
   information to shut down big chunks of the telephone systems in the United
   States,a** Zatko says matter-of-factly.

    

   Who was that shadowy data smuggler? a**That was me,a** says the
   39-year-old researcher, giggling bashfully.

    

   Zatko is not your typical Department of Defense employee. Even in his new
   Beltway digs, he prefers to be called a**Mudge,a** the hacker handle he
   used during decades of exploring the dark corners of the Internet. Frank
   Heidt, a former security staffer at MCI and several military contractors,
   says that when he first read Zatkoa**s exploit research in mid-1990s
   hacker zines, he thought that Mudge must be the pseudonym of a group.
   a**He was so prolific that I thought he couldna**t be one person,a** Heidt
   says. In 1998, as part of the L0pht hacker think tank, Zatko testified in
   a congressional hearing that he and his friends could shut down the
   Internet in 30 minutes.

    

   Since March Zatko has also been a lead cybersecurity researcher at the
   Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the mad-scientist wing of the
   Pentagon devoted to projects that occasionally result in breakthroughs
   like the Internet and GPS. Zatkoa**s new pet project may be equally
   ambitious: He aims to rid the world of digital leaks.

    

   The telephone system theft case that Zatko dissected in a Darpa conference
   room was a test, demonstrating that anyone with access to a network could
   steal data without detection, despite the systema**s expensive security
   software. Now his challenge is to fix the problem. Since August he has led
   a project known as the Cyber Insider Threat, or Cinder. Like most Darpa
   initiatives ita**s an X-Prize-style open invitation for ideas; recipients
   typically get tens of millions of dollars in government funding.
   Thirty-five entrants, mostly tiny companies, have already publicly signed
   up, many more in secret. a**Wea**re looking to everyone from academia to
   startups to large government contractors,a** says Zatko. a**Wea**re not
   looking for evolutionary improvement. We want to pull the rug out from the
   problem altogether.a**

    

   Ita**s a well-worn carpet. Since late 2007 every major security software
   vendor, from McAfee to Symantec to Trend Micro, has spent hundreds of
   millions of dollars to acquire companies in the so-called Data-Leak
   Prevention (DLP) industrya**software designed to locate and tag sensitive
   information, and then guard against its escape at the edges of a firma**s
   network.

    

   The problem: DLP doesna**t work. Data is simply created too quickly, and
   moved around too often, for a mere filter to catch it, says Richard
   Stiennon, an analyst for security consultancy IT-Harvest, in Birmingham,
   Mich. a**For DLP to function, all the stars have to align,a** he says.
   a**This is a huge problem that cana**t be stopped with a single layer of
   infrastructure.a**

    

   More fashionable now is network forensics: the process of constantly
   collecting every fingerprint on a companya**s servers to trace an intruder
   or leaker after the facta**and, perhaps, deter the next one. Thata**s a
   bit like fighting the next war according to the last one. Still, revenue
   at NetWitness, a prominent Herndon, Va. startup in that budding field, has
   leaped from $250,000 to $40 million since 2006. While the software
   generally gathers data and makes it easily available to queries, it
   doesna**t pinpoint culprits. a**Therea**s nothing in current technology
   that can do this in an automated fashion,a** says Shawn Carpenter,
   principal forensics analyst at NetAWitness. a**You need a Columbo.a**

    

   Or, better yet, a robo-Columbo. Darpaa**s Zatko has been working on a
   system of automatically identifying what he calls a**malicious
   missionsa**: insider activity aimed at stealing data from inside a
   companya**s firewall, whether ita**s a Dell PC remotely hijacked by a
   Chinese cyberspy or Bradley Mannings, the U.S. soldier accused of leaking
   classified documents about combat in Afghanistan to WikiLeaks. Zatkoa**s
   system would monitor networks in real-time for just the sort of
   data-stealing behavior he would perform himself: steps like scouring large
   areas of the network for a certain file, dumping piles of data to external
   storage hardware or sending encrypted files out over the Internet. No
   single episode would signal a leak; instead, the software would link acts
   in a probabilistic chain, triggering an alert only if a string of events
   points to purposeful data theft.

    

   Some of that leaky behavior isna**t what a casual observer might expect.
   Consider the cyber footprints left by Robert Hanssen, a former FBI agent
   serving a life sentence in a Colorado supermax prison for selling
   intelligence to the Soviets over two decades. Every few days Hanssen would
   stop his normal activities and make a single query to a server across the
   network, a pattern he repeated for years. That server, Zatko says, held
   the counterintelligence database. Hanssen was searching for himself, a
   routine check to see if hea**d finally been found out.

    

   a**You put all these things together into the different components of the
   mission,a** says Zatko. a**Ia**m looking for these new rhythms, new tells,
   new interrelations and requirements.a**

    

   Cinder wasna**t created to combat WikiLeaksa**in fact, it predates
   WikiLeaksa** biggest military scandals. But Zatko has nonetheless found
   himself squarely in opposition to Assangea**s missiona**a strange
   face-off, given that the two men once traveled in the same hacker circles,
   during the years when Assange went by the hacker handle Mendax (a Latin
   reference to the a**splendidly deceptivea** in the poet Horacea**s Odes)
   and reveled in accessing corporate and government systems without
   authorization. Neither will reveal much about their past encounters, but
   Assange says that they a**were in the same milieu.a** Asked about Assange,
   Zatko says only, a**I have very pleasant memories of those old days.a**

    

   WikiLeaksa** founder, in fact, seems to have trouble accepting that Mudge
   is working for the other side. a**Hea**s a clever guy, and hea**s also
   highly ethical,a** says Assange. a**I suspect he would have concerns about
   creating a system to conceal genuine abuses.a** He dismisses Cinder as
   just another system of digital censorship. And those systems, he says,
   will always fail, just as Chinaa**s Great Firewall cana**t stop
   well-informed and determined dissident Internet users. a**Censorship might
   work for the average person but not for highly motivated people,a**
   Assange says. a**And our people are highly motivated.a**

    

   *****

    

   Shutting down WikiLeaks wouldn't stop the growing movement of transparency
   agitators. They now have a nation-size ally: Iceland. Since WikiLeaks
   scored a major scoop unearthing the corrupt loans that helped destroy that
   countrya**s largest bank, the volcanic island is fast on its way to
   becoming the conduit for a global flood of leaks.

    

   It began when Kaupthing Bank collapsed in October 2008a**a calamitous
   chain reaction that has strapped Iceland with $128 billion in debts,
   around $400,000 per capita. Ten months later Bogi Agustsson, a Walter
   Cronkite-ish anchor for Icelandic national broadcaster RUV, appeared on
   the evening news and explained that a legal injunction had prevented the
   station from airing a prepared exposA(c) on Kaupthing. Viewers who wanted
   to see the material, he suggested, should visit a site called
   Wikileaks.org.

    

   Those who took Agustssona**s advice found a summary of Kaupthinga**s loan
   book posted on the site, detailing more than $6 billion funneled from
   Kaupthinga**s coffers to its own proprietors and companies they owned,
   often with little or no collateral; $900 million went to Olafur Olafsson,
   a major investor in Kaupthing who, on his birthday, flew in Elton John
   from England, along with a grand piano, for a one-hour concert. a**The
   banks had been eaten from the inside out,a** says Kristinn Hrafnsson, a
   former investigative reporter in Reykjavik who now works with WikiLeaks.

    

   A government investigation is still going on; no criminal charges have
   been filed. But WikiLeaks became a household name in Iceland. In December
   2009 Assange and Daniel Domscheit-Berg, a German who then worked with
   WikiALeaks, were invited to keynote a free-speech conference in Reykjavik.
   Their talk echoed an idea from American cyberAlibertarian John Perry
   Barlow, calling for a a**Switzerland of bits.a** Iceland, with its
   independent spirit and recent taste of explosive whistle-blowing, they
   suggested, could become the digital doppelgACURnger of a tax haven: a safe
   harbor for transparency, where ita**s open season on government and
   business secretsa**and leakers are protected by law.

    

   The idea might have gone nowhere if not for Birgitta Jonsdottir.
   Assangea**s message captivated the 43-year-old poet and self-styled
   a**realist-anarchist.a** She wasna**t just another idealistic protester
   with a goth wardrobe and hipster haircut. In the chaotic political
   environment that followed the national financial crisis, Jonsdottir had
   been elected to Icelanda**s parliament, the Althingi, in April 2009.

    

   Working with the countrya**s transparency activists, she pulled together
   the Icelandic Modern Media Initiative, or Immi. The initiative would bring
   to Iceland all the source-protection, freedom of information and
   transparency laws from around the world and even set up a Nobel-style
   international award for work in the field of free expression. Jonsdottir
   pushed through a unanimous resolution to create a series of bills to
   implement Immi. They would also make Iceland the most friendly legal base
   for whistleblowers on Earth.

    

   Velkomin, as Icelanders would say, to Leakistan.

    

   a**The more that companies resist, the more information will get out about
   them,a** says Jonsdottir when we meet in Reykjavika**s Hressingarskalinn
   cafA(c), around the corner from the parliament building. a**They cana**t
   hide anymore. The war is over. They lost.a** In Jonsdottira**s vision
   Iceland will attract both mainstream media and WikiALeaks-like
   organizations to move their data to Iceland, enjoying legal protection,
   just as another firm might incorporate in a tax-sheltering island in the
   Caribbean.

    

   She may be getting a bit ahead of herself. Immi has yet to become law,
   though it has backing from powerful figures, including both Icelanda**s
   minister of justice and the head of its progressive party. Even if it
   does, Immi likely wouldna**t offer much legal protection to organizations
   whose assets and staff arena**t physically in the country; they could
   still be sued anywhere else in the world, given that their digital and
   print publications could appear globally. Immi could also face resistance
   from the U.S. and the EUa**particularly when it comes to military matters.
   As Marc Thiessen, a conservative pundit, wrote on the blog of the American
   Enterprise Institute in August, a**Immi calls into question Icelanda**s
   seriousness as a NATO ally, and Iceland needs to realize there will be
   consequences for its actions.a** There could be a backlash for exposing
   corporate secrets, too. Alastair Mullis, a professor of law at East Anglia
   University in Britain, says, a**Ita**s possible that Iceland will become
   the defamation capital of the world.a**

    

   Jonsdottir and fellow Immi creator Smari McCarthy are pushing ahead
   anyway. Immi, they say, doesna**t fashion new laws; it cherry-picks
   existing statutes from around the world (source shields from Sweden, libel
   protection from New York State, protected communications with journalists
   from Belgium, among them). a**Wea**re basing our legislation on laws that
   have already withstood attacks,a** says Jonsdottir. Defamation and other
   concerns like child pornography and copyright violations, she argues,
   would still be illegal in Iceland and wouldna**t be sheltered.

    

   Nor is the idea to protect WikiLeaks itself, Jonsdottir points out. The
   site doesna**t need help: Its data and submissions process are carefully
   encrypted, and its infrastructure is spread over enough
   countriesa**including some servers in a bombproof, underground bunker in
   Swedena**that taking it offline is already nearly impossible.

   Instead Immi would foster a new wave of media organizations and
   whistleblower outlets that dona**t rely on WikiALeaksa** technical savvy
   or resources. Already a handful of smaller, leak-focused
   conduitsa**regional sites like Africa-focused SaharaReporters or
   Thaileaks.infoa**have published damning data. Immia**s McCarthy says
   hea**s been approached by media organizations from Rwanda to Chechnya.
   German WikiLeaks staffer Daniel Domscheit-Berg, disgruntled with
   Assangea**s laser focus on infrequent megaleaks, has left the organization
   along with several others to create his own spinoff. a**In the end there
   must be a thousand WikiLeaks,a** he told Der Spiegel in September.

    

   Iceland certainly has the infrastructure for a lot of informational
   mischief. Half an hour outside Reykjavik, on a landscape that resembles
   Mars covered in snow, the Thor Data Center is preparing for an influx of
   bytes. By 2011 it hopes to have thousands of servers in its
   aluminum-plant-turned-server-farm, powered by ultracheap geothermal energy
   and cooled by free arctic air. Icelanda**s biggest Web host, ironically
   named 1984 Web Hosting, is excited about the boost Immi could give its
   business. a**I created this company to prevent thought control,a** says
   Mordur Ingolfsson, its chief executive. a**In my humble opinion, Immi is
   the most important thing to happen to this godforsaken island since the
   Sagas were written.a** (Thata**s 600-plus years.)

    

   Jonsdottir agrees: a**WikiLeaks was an important icebreaker. It was the
   tip. Immi is the rest of the wedge, and it will open up everything.a**
   (She is less thrilled to learn that Assange speaks of Immi as his personal
   creation.)I ask Assange how he expects companies to cope with a world
   where hundreds of WikiLeak-alikes may soon exist. His three-part
   prescription is earnesta**if a bit patronizing: a**Do things to encourage
   leaks from dishonest competitors. Be as open and honest as possible. Treat
   your employees well.a**

   He also wants to clear up a misunderstanding. Despite his revolutionary
   reputation, hea**s not antibusiness. He bristles at the mediaa**s focus on
   his teenage years as a computer hacker who broke into dozens of systems,
   from the Department of Defense to Nortel, and was eventually convicted on
   25 charges of computer fraud and fined thousands of dollars.

    

   Instead, he prefers to think of himself as an entrepreneur. He tells the
   story of a free-speech-focused Internet service provider he cofounded in
   1993, known as Suburbia. It was, to hear him tell it, the blueprint for
   WikiLeaksa**in one instance, when the Church of Scientology demanded to
   know who had posted antichurch information on one site, he refused to
   help. (a**He has titanium balls,a** says David Gerard, that sitea**s
   creator.) a**I saw it early on, without realizing it: potentiating people
   to reveal their information, creating a conduit,a** Assange says.
   a**Without having any other robust publisher in the market, people came to
   us.a**

    

   Leaks merely lubricate the free market, he says, settling into the couch
   and clearly enjoying giving me a lecture on economics. (Later, as a
   45-minute interview pushes into two hours, he ignores his handler, who
   keeps urging him to leave for his next appointment.) He cites the example
   of the Chinese Sanlu Group, whose milk powder contained toxic melamine in
   2008. While poisoning its customers, Sanlu also gained an advantage over
   competitors and might have forced more of them to taint their products,
   too, or go bankrupta**if Sanlu hadna**t been exposed in the Chinese press.
   a**In the struggle between open and honest companies and dishonest and
   closed companies, wea**re creating a tremendous reputational tax on the
   unethical companies,a** he says.

    

   Of course, Assangea**s tax isna**t as equitable as it sounds. He alone
   decides where to apply the penalty, choosing the targets and when to
   expose them with a touch of theatrical grandstandinga**and with zero
   accountability. For bettera**and worsea**WikiLeaks has become the Julian
   Assange Show. As a photographer begins shooting, Assange wonders aloud if
   the coat hea**s wearing might have been produced by a labor-exploiting
   company. A few minutes later he jokes about his a**messiah complex.a**

    

   Like any true believer, Assange sees his work in simple terms. Markets, he
   reminds me, cana**t exist without information. Business will come to
   appreciate what he offers. And if that requires a few painful scandals in
   the process?

    

   Assange doesna**t miss a beat. a**Pain for the guilty.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Wednesday, December 08, 2010 19:39
   To: analysts
   Subject: Random Business Idea - Network Security

    

   I'm sure this has been thought of before at STRATFOR so excuse the
   redundancy. I was reading a solid Forbes article on Assange and it said
   that a large number of deep pocket corporations were looking into
   leak-focused network security after these Wikileak episodes.

   I was wondering if it was possible for us to get some of that
   \"leak-focused\" gravy train. This is an obvious fear sale, so that's a good
   thing. And we have something to offer that the IT security companies
   don't, mainly our focus on counter-intelligence and surveillance that Fred
   and Stick know better than anyone on the planet.

   We do a lot of good work with all the personal/executive security analysis
   as well. Could we develop some ideas and procedures on the idea of
   \"leak-focused\" network security that focuses on preventing one's own
   employees from leaking sensitive information.

   The point here is that I am sure there are certain procedures and
   precautions that companies should employ that go beyond installing network
   security network to deal with potential leaks. In fact, Im not so sure
   this is an IT problem that requires an IT solution.

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-12-09 07:16:08",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/882131_re-random-business-idea-network-security-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
883572,"[alpha] Occupy Wall Street (DHS analysis)
","3","2011-10-25 18:04:51",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/883572_-alpha-occupy-wall-street-dhs-analysis-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com","attach/13/13637_DHS IP Special.pdf"
884921,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   Good point. 
   In terrorist terms they are more like grassroots people than AQ core. 
   From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:11:05 -0500
   To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
   Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They are
   a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
   online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do this
   in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people joining
   Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or something
   like that. 

   Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

   On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
     these in the US?
      What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
     I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
     whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
     because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
     revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
     understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
     expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
     coercion.

     Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
     cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of el
     chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication as a
     tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable intelligence,
     the government will use it against the cartels. That's a physical
     threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify that
     Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact to the
     cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival cartels or
     the GoM. They may release information on a given politician being linked
     to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the politician will feel
     an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a link, doesn't make it
     true). It would be up to others to take action.  I think the way you
     have it worded in the above sentence is good.  Follow with a sentence
     explaining the rest of it, because readers will have the same question
     Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat to cartels would come in
     what information anonymous could expose that is useful to their enemies'

     Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
     activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to conduct
     significant logistics and business online. We don't know how much, but
     we do know they will have some points of operational vulnerability I
     have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't have specific
     examples which could be used in assessing their vulnerability online.

     by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
     arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
     should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
     politicians as colluding.
     On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

       Karen Hooper
       Latin America Analyst
       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
       c: 512.750.7234
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
       Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
       possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
       Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using the
       banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
       cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
       find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
       kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
       Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting
       flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the Operation
       Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is good and
       will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a quick
       explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding something in
       the explaining the flyers will work]

       Link: themeData
       Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
       denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate websites,
       lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
       denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a
       masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With
       the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
       the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities
       of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude with
       criminal cartels do they specify whether or not these are all in
       Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
       group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
       face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
       was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
       their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
       potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
       presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational criminal
       organization, it's not really unique.  Many such organizations do
       their crimes online, and have been hacked in response--like the
       nigerian princess scams. I think you should just say it's a unique
       threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out at online bloggers,
       but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
       from hackers before. 

       What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
            o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat
       to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to
       the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using
       publication as a tool to force government action. If you reveal
       actionable intelligence, the government will use it against the
       cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
            o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
       media
            o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
       at cartels

       While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
       threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

               -The threat is in the information they can expose that may be
   of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or other
   cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but i could
   imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the public).

            o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
       identifiable information on cartel members 
            o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
       cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
       section/paragraph]
            o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
       identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
       the realm of possibilities for
                   Anonymous
                   o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
       illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are
       known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't
       know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
       operational vulnerability

      -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
   (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
   cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
   replaceable. 
               -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents have
   access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any sort of
   existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

       Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
       world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that some
       of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to the
       violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is there
       are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems very
       possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have joined
       up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of cartel
       activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other countries may
       act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but this may
       blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even know the
       impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the part below and above is
       written rather normatively.  We need to take that out.  just state the
       facts]
            o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
       cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
       forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
       victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
       identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
       cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
       working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor) before, however
       there has yet to be any consequences from this. by \"no consequences\"
       what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and
       that happens all the time.
            o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
       willing to go protect their operations.
               o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
               o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
       community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
       them.
               o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
       discovering hackers within Mexico.
       need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply publishing
       tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the same camp as
       the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that their damage
       will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can do--limited.  But
       maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are no longer
       challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

        

       On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

         Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
         are several issues to address and fix here.

         These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
         discussion:

              o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
         we can't gloss over that fact
              o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
         between stealing bank records from government computers and
         overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
              o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
         information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
         kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
         talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
         politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
         going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
         killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
         operational details, because they acted as informants, because they
         exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied the
         cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
         to the cartels themselves?
              o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
         realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
         damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
         technical ability by a very small number of its members to
         infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information. Now
         what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that is
         connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
         information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
         of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
         consequences of dissemination.
              o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
         back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done
         by people who may not understand the difference between an anon
         hacker and a blogger.

         On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

           wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

           -------- Original Message --------

            Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
               Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
               From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
           Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                 To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

           you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
           lot more work

           You need to lay out:

           a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
           is unclear
           b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
           therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
           c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
           d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
           who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

           I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
           insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
           of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
           cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason
           to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
           protected fashion.

           Karen Hooper
           Latin America Analyst
           o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
           c: 512.750.7234
           STRATFOR
           www.stratfor.com
           On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

           On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Link: themeData

           Trigger

           Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
           depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
           exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
           makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
           releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
           politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
           The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
           member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
           between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
           unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
           operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
           Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
           believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
           not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience with
           hackers.

            

           In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as
           a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
           releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
           front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit
           back. Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and
           why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of
           possessing revealing information on cartel members and operations
           are true, cartels will likely respond with violence against
           individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean
           Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of
           GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take
           action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand
           what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
           effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against Anonymous
           remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue their threats
           against any individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
           or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here. against the
           cartels.

            

           The Battle Space

           Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
           realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
           the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
           boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
           cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
           tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses -
           although most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
           base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any
           information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by
           hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the
           midst of Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember
           that most of what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if
           you are Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
           revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run operations
           on the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are
           also far less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

           Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
           consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
           themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
           internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
           and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
           goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large
           web of people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort
           of serious IT capability. 

           The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
           from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

           The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
           Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
           maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
           commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
           issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
           is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
           capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
           and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
           experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
           always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence. While
           battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement
           Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of
           drugs and money, cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering
           journalists and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
           operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
           discussion. You need to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of
           the cartels. Don't just assume they have no cyber presence.

            

           Anonymous' Weapons

           Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
           criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
           combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
           sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
           statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you
           mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their
           video to cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance
           of a targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
           individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
           Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
           such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
           target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by
           Los Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
           the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
           denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here,
           and it's not really addressing the subheading

           As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
           disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
           Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
           release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
           Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
           individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
           information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
           Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
           considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
           compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer networks,
           information available to Mexico's intelligence collection may not
           be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
           clear at all

            

           Cartel's Defense

                       A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
           yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
           member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
           threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
           response? also this undermines your statements above about how
           Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
           vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
           Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you some
           indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As Anonymous
           exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the cartels
           will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed for them
           Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies dedicated to
           fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good
           intel indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
           cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any region
           of the world. Personal information including locations is only
           available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject of
           the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
           work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
           online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
           employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger
           things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                       Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
           Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help
           of computer science majors through personal threats has been
           reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since
           cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
           trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
           experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
           identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
           unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers operating
           outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such as the FBi,
           with far more technical experience and resources than cartels,
           struggle to find hackers through investigations. A) How do you
           know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???)
           B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult
           to track down

                       In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
           likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
           force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
           Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?. 
           Individuals with alleged connections to hacker communities will
           likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco
           banners and public display of violence will likely continue to be
           used to scare online media into submission i'm not really seeing
           the online media-international hacking group connection here.  The
           cruel manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
           hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether
           the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous
           will remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
           capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the
           collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience
           that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 20:33:26",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/884921_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
887782,"[alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA/AZ/US/VZ/RUSSIA/TAIWAN - Erdogan's
 cancer, Turkish plan for Syria and more - TR325
","   SOURCE: TR325 and his business partner
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former NSC official in Turkey, adviser to Erdogan,
   energy expert negotiator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   TR325's business partner has an old classmate friend who was the lead
   surgeon on Erdogan's most recent operation. He said that Erdogan has colon
   cancer, but they haven't seen the second biopsy results yet to see if it's
   metastasized. In the last operation, they cut out 20 cm of Erdogan's colon
   (I just looked up that the average colon is about 1.5m long.)  That's a
   really significant operation. Erdogan is not going to be able to travel
   for a while, and he's going to have to carry around with him a colonoscopy
   bag for at least 2-3 months.  The prognosis is not looking good, though.
   The surgeon said they were estimating 2 years for him.

   This is very likely going to cause major splits within the AKP.  Gul
   doesn't have much support.  Davutoglu is paranoid that everyone else is
   trying to undermine him (there's a definite competition between him and
   TR325.)  When I asked who Erdgogan trusts, two names were mentioned - Ali
   Babacan (Deputy PM) and Taner Yildiz (energy minister.)  Both sources were
   asking how the US is likely to react to this situation.  Would they try to
   back the military like the old days?  CHP is still very much divided. Both
   seemed to think the military won't be able to take advantage of the
   situation.

   On Syria - the conversation centered on how far Turkey is actually going
   to go.  TR325 explained that the Turkish plan is centered on civil war in
   Syria.  Officially, it's Turkey providing the main training,a rms and
   support to FSA. Unofficially, US and TUrkey are doing this together in
   deploying SOF for this mission.  Notice all the talk in the press now
   about civil war breaking out in Syria. This is the narrative Turkey and US
   want to build.  I pointed out that creating the conditions for civil war -
   actual neighborhood to neighborhood fighting - is still pretty difficult
   considering that the Alawite forces are still holding together, but he
   seemed to think that this can escalate within 2 months time. He also said
   without saying that they're working on making that happen. He acknowledges
   it'll be messy and it will take a lot of blood and time for a Sunni power
   to emerge in syria, but that this is the Turkish obligation.

   The Turkish plan to preempt the instability that would result from civil
   war conditions is to implement the buffer zone 5-40km into Syrian
   territory and set up refugee camps.  I asked what levers Iran and Syria
   have to get Turkey to back off in relation to PKK.  He said
   (half-jokingly) that Karilan is Turkey's man (ie. turkey can actually
   negotiate with him.)  But he said PKK third-in-command (still need to get
   this guy's name) answers to Syria and Iran. Turkey knows this very well
   and he says Syria and Iran are already making moves to threaten attacks
   via this faction.

   I'm left with a lot of questions --

   Given the instability that is likely to result within AKP over Erdogan's
   health, would Turkey really be making bold foreign policy moves, such as
   helping to create a civil war in Syria?

   Turkey appears very confident that Syria/Iran have the means to play the
   PKK card. Why risk that?

   Turkey knows they'll be dealing with a massive refugee crisis in Syria -
   why propel that situation?

   Some other points -

   TR325 believes AZ wiill be able to export 5-7bcm via ITGI for SDII. 
   Russia has its stake in Edison to keep a foothold in that route.  The rest
   he agrees is likely going to have to be shipped to Russia eventually since
   the Europeans aren't financing anything right now. He did say that SOCAR
   is flush with money right now and could actually put money down on these
   projects if they have the market demand and client base to do it.

   They were both asking me what is happening with Trinidad and Tobago. I
   told them I have no idea. They were asking because they are involved in a
   business deal to sell conventional subs to Trinidad and Tobago. They're
   assuming the US is preparing something for VZ.  They are also involved in
   similar submarine sales to Taiwan and Japan.
","2011-12-10 20:04:53",1,"2012-03-06 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/887782_-alpha-insight-turkey-syria-az-us-vz-russia-taiwan-erdogan-s.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
888840,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN/US/SYRIA - Iran reaching out to US on
	post-Assad set-up? - ME1 and ME1386
","   What does the source think about the possibility of a palace coup that
   isn't accepted by the SNC, FSA, people in the street or some combination
   thereof? Also does source know what the Iranians think about such a
   scenario (assuming they have considered it)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 6:07:16 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN/US/SYRIA - Iran reaching out to US on
   post-Assad set-up? - ME1 and ME1386

   my bad, that should read HZ politburo

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Michael Wilson\" <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 10:00:59 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN/US/SYRIA - Iran reaching out to US on
   post-Assad set-up? - ME1 and ME1386

   You say HZ source but notes say member of Hamas politburo

   On 12/13/11 9:29 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Reva's note - this is extremely interesting, especially the bolded part
     below. DOes Iran really think it can convince the US to collaborate with
     them on regime change in SYria in such a way that will end up in Iran's
     favor? the whole point of the US focusing in on Syria is to contain Iran
     in the first place. This sounds like the Iranians are getting to be in
     an increasingly desperate position. Always be wary of source bias, but
     why would a HZ source want to spread info on the weakness of the Syrian
     regime and the lack of options for Iran?  I do believe the part about
     Iran preferring a palace coup over the Turkish strategy of building up
     an opposition via FSA.

     SOURCE: ME1 and ME1386
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1 and member of Hamas politburo
     PUBLICATION: Yes - worth a tactical analysis
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: B-C
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: B-C
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

     Marhaba Reva,
     I strongly believe that Asad's regime will fall in 2012. The
     conventional wisdom that Asad will survive, because both Iran and Israel
     view him with favor, is a thing of the past. The situation in Syria has
     reached the point of no return. It is true than nine months of
     demonstrations have not brought down the regime but, by the same token,
     regime brutality and heavy handedness have not quelled the uprising. If
     anything, the level of hostilities and army defections is on the rise.

     The breaking point will come when the military establishment realizes
     that Asad must go. There are signs that the military establishment is
     beginning to disintegrate. I talked to [ME1386] and he told me that
     Alawite officers and enlisted men are beginning to join the ranks of the
     FSA. This represents a major development. Alawite officers are divided
     since many of them are unhappy about the use of excessive force against
     Sunni protesters.  Alawite officers are aware that Asad is trying to
     find an asylum for himself and his family should his regime become
     unslavageable. This is upsetting many Alawites who are coming to realize
     that Asad will abandon them. If so, they reason that it would be
     suicidal to continue to win the wrath of the Sunnis. Walid al-Muallim
     offered to resign but Asad turned down his request. This is a clear
     indicator that many of Asad's men are realizing that they are putting a
     vain fight against the burgeoning uprising.

     The Iranians are weighing in the situation in Syria very carefully. One
     must read beyond the public statements of the Iranians, especially
     ayatollah Khamenei. Both Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have concluded that
     Asad's regime cannot be rescued. It is perfectly understood that the
     regime in Damascus will fall along lines similar to the Libyan model.
     There will have to be a coup in Damascus, be it a military or political
     one.

     One must not dismiss the pragmatism of Khamenei. Iran appears to be
     willing to use its influence in Syria to stage a coup, provided that it
     is able to ensure that the new leadership will continue to pursue
     excellent relations with Tehran. The Iranians have approached the
     Americans on this. In the past, Iran collaborated with the U.S. on the
     ouster of Saddam Hussein and Iran won big in Iraq. The Iranians would
     not mind working again on ousting Asad if they can secure good results
     in Syria. Syria's contiguity to Iraq allows Iran to play a direct role
     in the affairs of Damascus.

     The Iranians feel they need to act on Syria soon because the Turks have
     their own plans for Syria and are not coordinating with the Iranians. He
     says the Turks are moving slowly but systematically. Iran does not want
     to allow Turkey to take over Syria. Whereas the Turks are coordinating
     with the Brotherhood and the FSA, the Iranians prefer a palace coup in
     damascus in order to maintain their ties with Asad's successors. What is
     delaying action in Syria is the fact that the U.S. has not yet decided
     on the shape of the post-Asad political system. Nevertheless, he insists
     that Asad's regime will fall, although the future of Syria after the
     regime change remains nebulous.

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com

   --
   Nick Grinstead
   Regional Monitor
   STRATFOR
   Beirut, Lebanon
   +96171969463
","2011-12-13 17:09:09",1,"2012-03-06 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/888840_re-alpha-insight-iran-us-syria-iran-reaching-out-to-us-on.html","nick.grinstead@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
895998,"falklands so far
","   Summary

    

   On the twenty-fifth anniversary of the Falklands War, Argentina has cut
   off oil exploration cooperation with the UK in the area and is ramping up
   rhetoric claiming full sovereignty over the islands and their resources. 
   President Kirchner likely intends for this to serve as an outlet for
   domestic unrest that might otherwise sour prospects for upcoming
   presidential elections in October.  This unrest includes strikes and
   protests due to inflation/wage concerns, political feuds and demands for
   stronger investigations into past government atrocities.  His
   administration will maintain its provocative rhetoric for the rest of the
   year, but steer clear of actual confrontation with the UK.

    

   Analysis

    

   Argentina announced late March 27 that it is withdrawing from an oil and
   gas exploration partnership with the UK around the Falkland Islands
   (Spanish: Malvinas), territory contested by both countries in a war
   twenty-five years ago.  Simultaneously, government officials are loudly
   discussing the country's claim to sovereignty over the area, an issue that
   has not been spotlighted for some time.

    

   This is a calculated decision on the part of the Argentine government,
   designed to channel public discontent away from domestic problems where
   the government might be to blame, and towards a foreign object where the
   government represents the peoples' own nationalist passions.  This
   suggests that Argentina will take a hard stance on the issue for several
   months, but will avoid taking it so far that it would jeopardize its
   diplomatic relationship with the UK.

    

   Argentina will have presidential elections in October, and President
   Nestor Kirchner is widely expected to be reelected if he chooses to run;
   otherwise his wife Cristina, currently a Senator, is expected to succeed
   her husband.  The Kirchners have enjoyed widespread popularity over the
   past three years while overseeing sustained 8 percent economic growth
   rates, pulling the country out of its dismal economic collapse in 2001.  

    

   Yet beneath the surface, discontent has been brewing. 

    

    
","2007-03-28 19:48:04",1,"2012-02-27 22:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/895998_falklands-so-far-.html","kornfield@stratfor.com","","araceli.santos@stratfor.com",""
896885,"Re: [latam] [CT] How Guatemala's fragile democracy nearly went
	`narco'
","   These types of exercises are very common and last only a short time.
     There is no residual troop presence.

    

   There may be some private security guys running around, but no USMC,
   especially with the USG restrictions on doing business with the
   Guatemalans. We are not even allowed to sell them guns. Providing US
   Marines to protect a Canadian company when we are already stretched thin
   for ground troops is a non-starter.

    

    

    

    

    

   From: ct-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:ct-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf
   Of Colby Martin
   Sent: Tuesday, July 20, 2010 4:01 PM
   To: CT AOR
   Cc: 'LATAM'
   Subject: Re: [CT] How Guatemala's fragile democracy nearly went `narco'

    

   I was in Nebaj during this time and although you can say some of it was
   well deserved paranoia on the side of the Guatemalans, having a 1000 US
   marines in San Marcos while there were riots and gun fights over the
   Marlin mine was reason for consternation.  The projects had been going on
   since 1995 but the marines came with support troops and no one believed
   they were there just to build schools and take care of patients.  I do not
   believe they were there only for humanitarian projects, especially after
   sitting in on meetings of the people's movement against the Marlin mine. 
   Goldcorp is a Canadian company but as the article below states the
   protection of the mine was secondary, and achieved by just being a
   presence in the area.  More importantly it gives the locals a sense that
   US marines are benign and there to help.  Basic counterinsurgency
   tactics.  To add to the general fear of the population, General Otto Perez
   Molina gave a campaign speech in Nebaj (where he was commander during many
   of the massacres of Ixil Mayans) where he bussed in hundreds of supporters
   to hear him speak and there were snipers on the roof of the police
   building across from the town square where he was speaking and security
   forces everywhere in the town.  It  is accepted as fact in this area that
   US forces or proxies are active in the area, and I have met more than a
   few dudes in the mountain(ish) passes of Northwestern Guatemala who I
   would bet my last dollar were not your average hiker.  

   US Deploys Troops Across Latin America In 'Goodwill' Gesture
   http://gsn.civiblog.org/blog/Guatemala/_archives/2007/2/3/2706052.html
   by Patrick on Sat 03 Feb 2007 04:58 PM GMT  |  Permanent Link  |  Cosmos
   1,000 US marines are coming to Guatemala to carry out humanitarian work in
   San Marcos. The announcement received a bit of coverage in the press back
   in November when Congress approved the move, but little now with the
   programmed deployment starting in February [there's now been an article in
   Prensa Libre 13-02-2007]. The US Ambassador James Derham described the
   reason for the initiative in a statement as:

   \"This humanitarian exercise provides the United States the opportunity to
   deploy and train Military Reserve and National Guard troops.\"

   The Frente Nacional de Lucha called the arrival of US troops in Guatemala
   a threat to peace. They quoted Sandino Asturias, Centro de Estudios de
   Guatemala (CEG) who disputed how 'humanitarian' the intentions are:

   \"Para nadie es un secreto el interes geopolitico de los Estados Unidos en
   la region y en particular en Guatemala. Aqui lo grave es que en esencia se
   trata del uso del territorio guatemalteco para entrenar tropas militares
   extranjeras. Eso es una flagrante violacion a la soberania nacional. El
   hecho que lo disfracen de obras sociales y de infraestructura tiene aun
   otro objetivo perverso: el acostumbrar a la poblacion a la presencia de
   las tropas norteamericanas y que de alguna forma esta sea aceptable por el
   publico en general.\"

   Whatever the truth it's not hard to be cynical when this same programme of
   'Nuevos Horizontes' is repeated all across the region each year since
   1995: Dominican Republic, Peru, Nicaragua, Panama, El Salvador, etc. Given
   the timing- just in the run up to the elections, let's hope there's not a
   repeat of interference the US demonstrated in Nicaragua (according to the
   OAS) last year.

   Background

   Nuevos Horizontes/ New Horizons is an engineer humanitarian civic
   assistance exercise designed to give training to U.S. military units in
   civilian construction or medical care services. Participating U.S. troops
   build basic infrastructure (roads, bridges, schools, wells, etc.) and
   provide medical, dental and veterinary services. Information from a
   'Civilian's guide to U.S. defence and security assistance to Latin
   America'.

   >From Guatemala to Colombia: The Regional Integration of Gold and Bullets
   is an article in ZNET by Sandra Cuffe that analyzes the role of
   militarization as a part of the control of territory, natural resources
   and people, and raises doubts about the so-called war on drug trafficking
   in mining districts.  A comparison is drawn between Plan Colombia and the
   current situation in the gold mining region of San Marcos, Guatemala.

   More on US interference in the Nicaraguan election from Quest for Peace.

   It's also worth noting the irony that these humanitarian military
   manoeuvres are taking place while a US court is showing great 'humanity'
   jailing, on counts of trespass, peaceful protestors against WHINSEC
   (previously known as the School of the Americas) blamed for military-led
   human rights abuses across Latin America. Many graduates of the school
   trained in the US were from the Guatemalan military and are amongst those
   cited by various reports and legal actions for their responsibility in
   gross human rights violations.

   Marines Provide Guatemala Mission Support for Continuing Promise 2008
   http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2008/06/mil-080602-nns09.htm

   scott stewart wrote:

   There are already US marines on the ground there protecting the Montana
   mines.  

    

   Say what?

    

    

    

    

   From: ct-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:ct-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf
   Of Colby Martin
   Sent: Tuesday, July 20, 2010 9:26 AM
   To: CT AOR
   Cc: LATAM
   Subject: Re: [CT] How Guatemala's fragile democracy nearly went `narco'

    

   This ties into what we were talking about with Colom.  Everyone blames the
   wife for drug connections but there is no difference.  One theory about
   the office being tapped was that it wasn't by drug traffickers but by us. 
   I am trying to get everyone to talk to me about this but there is so much
   fear there now.  I really think we should be looking into whether Otto
   Perez Molina is the US backed choice for president there and although he
   has connections to the drug trade (who doesn't) he would be the candidate
   to get into line with Calderon and the drug war in return for
   financial/military support.  There are already US marines on the ground
   there protecting the Montana mines.  

   Alex Posey wrote:

   How Guatemala's fragile democracy nearly went `narco'
    
   Earlier this year, Guatemala nearly came under mobsters' control -- but an
   outspoken former Spanish judge yanked the nation from the precipice.

   BY TIM JOHNSON
   McClatchy News Service

   GUATEMALA CITY -- For a 17-day period that ended last month, Guatemala
   seemed to be falling under the direct control of suspected mobsters. A
   lawyer leading a posse of unsavory characters became the attorney general
   and started dismantling the state's legal apparatus.

   Central America's most populous country teetered on the edge of ``going
   narco.''

   Although the appointment of Conrado Reyes as attorney general has now been
   annulled and Guatemala's fragile democracy survived the ordeal, it's still
   on a tightrope, advocates for democracy and human rights say.

   A rugged coffee-growing nation of 13.5 million people, 40 percent of them
   disenfranchised Mayan Indians, Guatemala has largely been off the world's
   radar screen. But as U.S. anti-narcotics aid poured into Mexico and
   Colombia, bad guys flooded the region in between.

   Guatemala became a prime destination. While institutions of state appear
   to function, corruption is rampant, and narcotics are pervasive. Some 275
   to 385 tons of South American cocaine transits Guatemala each year, almost
   enough to satisfy all U.S. demand, according to a March estimate by the
   State Department.

   Syndicates from neighboring Mexico brought violence to the steps of power.
   Cartel enforcers demanding an end to a crackdown on organized crime dumped
   four decapitated human heads on the steps of Congress and other downtown
   Guatemala City sites on June 10.

   Drug gangs operate largely unhindered. As many as seven of Guatemala's 22
   provinces may not be under government control, making it ``one of the
   world's most dangerous countries,'' according to a report June 22 by the
   International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based organization.

   Impunity is the rule. A weak judicial system keeps most of Guatemala's
   corrupt politicians, hired assassins, arms traffickers and drug dealers
   out of prison. It got so bad that the United Nations set up a special
   commission in 2006 to help Guatemala dismantle its vast clandestine
   networks of organized crime, and by doing so, gave Guatemalans hope for
   justice.

   It remains a distant goal. Even though President Alvaro Colom's
   administration has sacked more than 2,000 police officers from the
   national force, corruption corrodes the pillars of state. The last two
   national police chiefs are in jail on narcotics charges. Two former
   interior ministers are fugitives.

   Leading the U.N.'s International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala
   was Carlos Castresana, a hard-charging and outspoken former Spanish judge.
   At high personal cost, he yanked Guatemala back from the precipice last
   month in an extraordinary chain of events.

   A starting point for the drama occurred at noon May 25 when Colom
   administered the oath of office as attorney general to Reyes, a lawyer. At
   the time, few suspected that Reyes might be fronting for criminal
   interests. After all, he'd come out on top in a selection process of 29
   candidates led by the deans of the nation's nine law schools, the chief of
   its Supreme Court and two other top legal officials.

   Scratch a little further, though, and there's more evidence of Guatemala's
   pervasive corruption. Legal reforms earlier this decade gave the deans of
   law schools an outsized role in selecting judges, magistrates and the
   attorney general, so the academic posts go to those who are backed by deep
   pockets and sometimes have shady backgrounds.

   `THEY SPEND BUCKETS'

   At the only national university, San Carlos, lobbying for the post of dean
   of the law school is intense, said Eduardo Stein, a former Guatemalan vice
   president who coordinates a truth commission that's looking into Honduras'
   2009 removal of its president. ``They spend buckets of money in parties,
   in gifts and in T-shirts. It's like a political campaign,'' Stein said.

   When the selection committee met to mull over the six finalists for
   attorney general, it gathered for only 15 minutes, a sign of an
   under-the-table agreement.

   Still, no one thought that Reyes would be so blatant as to take a
   suspected mobster to his swearing-in. To the surprise of attendees,
   standing nearby was Juan Roberto Garrido Perez, a former army captain
   whose U.S. visa had been revoked because of suspicions of links to
   narcotics trafficking. Garrido's shady connections are said to go beyond
   drugs. Castresana later would accuse Garrido of links to alien smuggling,
   the murder of a human rights activist's son and a 2006 heist of $9 million
   at the Guatemala City airport, where Garrido was then the security chief.
   During the heist, security cameras went on the blink.

   Once sworn in as attorney general, Reyes seized personal control of
   criminal investigations and the most sensitive bureau of the Public
   Ministry, the Special Methods Unit, which handles wiretaps of major drug
   traffickers, corrupt army officers, tycoons and politicians.

   SWEPT AWAY

   Within days of Reyes' takeover, more than a dozen seasoned prosecutors
   who'd been handling sensitive cases involving political murders,
   corruption and drug trafficking were swept out of their jobs, imperiling
   cases such as a pending trial of former President Alfonso Portillo
   (2000-04) on charges of embezzling $15.7 million.

   Asked why he sacked the prosecutors, Reyes told reporters: ``They weren't
   doing anything.''

   With key prosecutors gone, and suspected mafiosos calling the shots,
   however, Castresana saw his work coming undone.

   In desperation, he resigned June 7, issuing a broadside against Reyes:
   ``He is not the prosecutor that Guatemala deserves. He has ties with
   illicit organizations. His election was arranged by law firms that defend
   drug traffickers.''

   Foreign governments leaned heavily on Guatemala, and its Constitutional
   Court felt compelled to act. On June 11, it annulled Reyes' selection as
   attorney general. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon named a renowned
   Costa Rican corruption buster, Francisco Dall'Anese, to replace Castresana
   as the head of the U.N.-backed impunity commission, whose mandate expires
   next year.

   ``Guatemala is at an inflection point,'' said Helen Mack, the head of the
   Myrna Mack Foundation, named for her anthropologist sister, who was slain
   by an army death squad in 1990. Unless a variety of social forces act
   urgently to protect the rule of law, she said, ``we will lose the state.''

   Read more:
   http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/07/19/v-fullstory/1737894/how-a-fragile-democracy-nearly.html#ixzz0uEQhis51

 --

 Alex Posey

 Tactical Analyst

 STRATFOR

 alex.posey@stratfor.com
","2010-07-20 23:17:51",1,"2012-03-08 06:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/896885_re-latam-ct-how-guatemala-s-fragile-democracy-nearly-went.html","scott.stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:latam@stratfor.com","ct@stratfor.com,latam@stratfor.com",""
897220,"Re: Meeting
","   I'll forward that to the marketing list, Daniel - it's a good idea to put
   in the hopper. Thanks!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Daniel Ben-Nun\" <daniel.ben-nun@stratfor.com>
   To: friedman@att.blackberry.net, \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, June 3, 2010 3:40:50 PM
   Subject: Re: Meeting

   Every time I hear you guys say the phrase \"<insert name> reads STRATFOR\" I
   think to myself...wow, that phrase could make a great marketing campaign.

   Just think of the bumper stickers you could make for our readers all over
   the world...

   Obama reads STRATFOR
   Serbia reads STRATFOR
   Putin reads STRATFOR
   DavutoA:*lu reads STRATFOR
   Turkey reads STRATFOR
   Israel reads STRATFOR
   US ARMY reads STRATFOR etc. etc.

   This list goes on. I'm not sure we can use politicians' names, but country
   names could work well too and all you have to do is offer them on the
   website.

   Sounds like a pretty inexpensive and catchy marketing campaign to me.
   That's my two cents.

   On 6/3/10 10:47 AM, George Friedman wrote:

 Didn't accept the idea that the military is pro-israeli. Denied that he wanted an opportunity to break with israel. Nothing serious. But damn he reads us.
 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

 -----Original Message-----
 From: Reva Bhalla <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
 Date: Thu, 3 Jun 2010 10:44:24
 To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>; Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
 Subject: Re: Meeting

 what mistakes did he point out?


 On Jun 3, 2010, at 10:43 AM, George Friedman wrote:

  

 Just met with turkish foreign minister. One thing you should know.
 He reads stratfor and knows what we say on turkey in detail. And
 points out mistakes.
 Just thought you should know. Now don't freeze up or anything.
 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
    

  

 --
 Daniel Ben-Nun
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-06-03 22:43:31",1,"2012-03-13 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/897220_re-meeting-.html","dial@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
898587,"Draft of Handbook Chapter on Organization
","","2010-08-08 20:53:46",1,"2012-02-29 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/898587_draft-of-handbook-chapter-on-organization-.html","gfriedman@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com","attach/62/62169_Handbook--Organization.doc"
901056,"[alpha] source evaluations - must read
","   This is the first in several emails on our sourcing and insight
   collections.  To begin with, we will be meeting with everyone who has
   sources to evaluate them on the criteria and scoring below.  I will be in
   touch with everyone who has a source list within the next few weeks.  If
   you have sources but no source list, then you need to create one.  I will
   give details on this in a separate email. 

   All of those who need to update or create their list need to do so by
   Monday and send them to both myself and Anya.  If you need a source code
   number range, email me and I will get this set up for you so you can start
   the process.  For analysts with compiled lists with uncoded sources,
   please code these ASAP unless they are genuinely a one-off and then give
   an explanation.

   In the meantime, it would be best if everyone with sources start to
   evaluate each source by looking at least the past five insights and start
   to score them based on the criteria and scoring below so you are not
   scrambling when we are ready to set up an evaluation with you.  Also, from
   here on out, start to think about sources with these criteria and scoring
   in mind.  This will be the first of many periodic insight evaluations so
   its best for everyone to get acquainted with this method.

   For Watch Officers, please also start to think along these lines when you
   are reading insight.  In the future we will also look to you as objective
   source evaluators.  Also, please start to read the insight carefully and
   comment on it the same as you would a piece from OS.  As Reva said in our
   meeting today, we are starting to refocus on intel and insight.  As Watch
   Officers, you are well placed to comment on any anomalies presented in
   insights and compare it with what is being said in the media.

   If there are any questions or concerns, please ask.

   Jen

                               Sourcing Criteria

   The following are the proposed criteria for analyzing both sources and
   insight.

    

   1.     Source Timeliness

   2.     Source Accessibility/Position

   3.     Source Availability

   4.     Insight Credibility

   5.     Insight Uniqueness

    

    

   Source Timeliness:  This is the average grade on how long this particular
   source turns around tasks and replies to inquiries.  It may change but is
   more of a static indicator.

    

   Source Accessibility: Accessibility weighs the source's position to have
   certain knowledge in a particular field.  So, for example, if we are
   looking for energy insight and the source is an official in an energy
   agency, his or her Accessibility would be ranked higher than if s/he was a
   banker giving insight on energy.  While we would welcome a banker giving
   his/her insight, a good source may not have a high accessibility ranking
   if they aren't in a position to offer reliable insight on a certain topic.
   The source's access to decision makers, specific training or education in
   the desired topic area, specific knowledge of events/situations/incidents
   can also be considered.

    

   Source Availability:  How often can we go to this source?  Are they
   someone we can tap daily, weekly, monthly, yearly?

    

   Insight Credibility:  This is our assessment of the veracity of the
   insight offered.  Here we need to consider whether or not this is
   disinformation, speculation, correct data or knowledgeable interpretation.
   Any bias that the source is displaying or any specific viewpoints or
   personal background the source is using in the assessment provided should
   also be considered.

    

   Insight Uniqueness:  Is this insight something that could be found in OS? 
   If it is but the analysis of the information is unique, it would still
   have a high uniqueness ranking.  Or, if it is concrete data, but is
   something that is only offered to industry insiders, i.e. stats that
   aren't published but that aren't secret, it would still have a high
   uniqueness score.

    

    

                                    Scoring

   All of the above factors will be scored on an A-F scale, with A being
   exemplary and F being useless. 

    

   Source Timeliness:

   A = turnaround within 24 hours

   B = turnaround within 48 hours

   C = turnaround within a week

   D = turnaround within a month

   F = lucky to receive a reply at all

    

   Source Accessibility:

   A = Someone with intimate knowledge of the particular insight

   B = Someone within the industry but whose knowledge of the topic is not
   exact (e.g. if we were asking someone in the oil industry about natural
   gas)

   C = Someone working close to the industry who doesn't have intimate
   knowledge of a particular topic but can speak to it intelligently (e.g. a
   financial consultant asked to gauge the movement of the stock market)

   D = Someone who may know a country but doesn't have any concrete insight
   into a particular topic but can offer rumors and discussions heard on the
   topic

   F = Someone who has no knowledge of a particular industry at all

    

   Source Availability:

   A = Available pretty much whenever

   B = Can tap around once a week

   C = Can tap about once a month

   D = Can tap only several times a year

   F = Very limited availability

    

   Insight Credibility:

   A = We can take this information to the bank

   B = Good insight but maybe not entirely precise

   C = Insight is only partially true

   D = There may be some interest in the insight, but it is mostly false or
   just pure speculation.

   F = Likely to be disinformation

    

   Insight Uniqueness:

   A = Can't be found anywhere else

   B = Can only be found in limited circles

   C = Insight can be found in OS, but the source has an interesting
   take/analysis

   D = Insight can be found in OS, but still may not be common knowledge

   F = Insight is accessible in numerous locations

    

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-08-10 04:51:43",1,"2012-02-27 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/901056_-alpha-source-evaluations-must-read-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","watchofficer@stratfor.com,alpha@stratfor.com",""
904949,"Re: [latam] INTRO: Falklands/Malvinas drilling
","   er, weak.
   look forward to seeing what Allison and Paulo can collect on this. This
   could make a good analysis on Brazil's FP outlook for the region
   On Sep 21, 2010, at 2:10 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     so brazil is establishing itself as a protector of Argentina?
     interesting...
     i guess they can afford to do so if they perceive Argentina as being
     that week
     On Sep 21, 2010, at 2:09 PM, Paulo Gregoire wrote:

       Yes I will try to get insight. Brazil has mentioned a few times that
       the South Atlantic is a  blue amazon  and that no northern country
       should be occupying it.  Since Lula came to power Brazil has shown
       signs of support to Argentina in the Malvinas issue.
       They do not want to have the UK next to the pre-salt reserves.

       Paulo Gregoire
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
       To: \"LatAm AOR\" <latam@stratfor.com>
       Sent: Wednesday, September 22, 2010 3:37:57 AM
       Subject: Re: [latam] INTRO: Falklands/Malvinas drilling

       This is very strange that Petrobras is involved (also interesting that
       Spain is backing Argentina up).
       Paulo, can you try to collect insight on what is going on here?
       Petrobras participating in this project is a pretty strong show of
       support for Argentina in a dispute where Argentina has looked
       completely helpless.  Why is Brazil/Petrobras doing this?
       On Sep 21, 2010, at 1:35 PM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

         Not sure who Mercopress is but they tend to report on
         Malvinas/Falklands stuff more completely than other news outlets and
         a bit faster than Argentine press.  The two articles below are the
         initial announcement (was repped) that the Govt plans its own
         exploration activities and the second is the most recent article
         saying that exploration plans are still on track for the start of
         Dec 2010.  The initial announcement was well timed, just about a
         week after the natl holiday for Malvinas in Argentina (April 2).

         For now it looks like YPF-Repsol, Petrobras and Pan American Energy
         will participate in the exploration.  Not sure how PAE's association
         with British Petroleum would affect things (if at all).  I'm not
         sure why I though Uruguay was somehow involved (wishful
         thinking?).  

         April 9th 2010 - 02:57 UTC
         - http://en.mercopress.com/2010/04/09/argentina-to-drill-two-wells-next-to-falklands-waters-in-last-quarter

     Argentina to drill two wells next to Falklands* waters in last quarter

         Several oil companies operating in Argentina have teamed up to begin
         hydrocarbons explorations close to Falklands* waters. The companies
         have programmed to spend 140 million US dollars in two exploratory
         wells for which they have contracted a special drilling vessel,
         according to reports in the Buenos Aires press.
         Companies involved are YPF, Brazil*s Petrobras and PAE which is an
         association of Argentina*s Bridas and British Petroleum.
         The vessel *Stena DriMax* is scheduled to drill two 2.000 metres
         wells in an area 320 kilometres from Rio Grande and 498 kilometres
         from Rio Gallegos.
         Although not many details of the operation have been disclosed
         *Stena DriMax* should be arriving in the last quarter of the year
         and will count with three support vessels operating from Comodoro
         Rivadavia as the logistics base.
         An estimated 250 people will be involved in the drilling round, says
         the Buenos Aires press. The vessel can accommodate 180 people.
         YPF has drilled in the South Atlantic, mainly offshore Chubut
         province in relatively shallow waters but this time the operation is
         to take place at an average depth of 500 metres according to the
         Buenos Aires press.
         Stena DrillMax is currently operating off-shore Brazil contracted by
         YPF parent company, Spain*s Repsol.
         The initiative apparently has been spurred by the Argentine
         government in response to the exploratory drilling round in
         Falklands* waters by four British companies with the oil rig Ocean
         Guardian, and which has infuriated Argentine authorities and upset
         public opinion.
         The first well drilled in the north Falkland basin by Desire
         Petroleum showed abundant signs of oil and gas but was finally
         sealed since it lacked the sufficient commercial volumes.
         According to the Stena Drilling website, the company is a wholly
         owned subsidiary of Stena AB, Gothenburg, Sweden and is one of the
         world's foremost independent drilling contractors.
         In 1989 and 1996 Stena acquired Houlder Marine Drilling and Ben Line
         Steamers / Atlantic Drilling respectively; and with them, history
         and pedigree dating back to the mid-1970s. The acquisitions were
         strategic in providing Stena Drilling, not only with worthy drilling
         units, but also with staff and personnel, who brought invaluable
         operational experience and success into the Company.
         Today, Stena Drilling manages a global business, holding a portfolio
         of successful, past and present operations in the North Sea, US Gulf
         of Mexico, South East Asia, Mediterranean, Caribbean, South America,
         Australia, North Africa and West Africa. In expanding its fleet of
         well-maintained drilling units, the Company has had an active role
         in building and converting rigs and, in doing so, pioneering some of
         the most leading-edge technologies and innovations in the drilling
         world.
         The 228 metres long Stena DrillMax was built by Samsung Heavy
         Industries, South Korea and is described as a dynamically positioned
         drilling vessels designed for year round world wide operations in
         ultra deep waters. She has a water depth capacity of 10.000 ft and
         35.000 deep drilling with a variable deck load of 15.000 tons. 

         Argentina confirms drilling in Malvinas basin for next December
         September 15th 2010 - 05:46
         UTC - http://en.mercopress.com/2010/09/15/argentina-confirms-drilling-in-malvinas-basin-for-next-december
         The Argentine press confirmed that following the contracting of a
         semi-submersible rig from the Swedish company Stensa, a consortium
         of Argentine based oil companies will begin exploratory drilling in
         the Malvinas basin next December.
         The consortium which includes YPF-Repsol, Pan American Energy and
         Petrobras will be drilling half way between the Falkland Islands and
         Tierra del Fuego, in what is considered the most austral
         hydrocarbons offshore exploratory operation in Argentine history.
         The initiative is seen as a strong reply from Argentina to the
         exploratory round in Falklands* waters which the government of
         President Cristina Kirchner has condemned and rejected as *illegal*
         since these are *disputed waters*, according to the Argentine
         argument.
         At least five London quoted companies have drilled or have announced
         plans to drill in Falklands* waters taking advantage of the *Ocean
         Guardian* rig.
         In Buenos Aires Defence ministry strategy considers the southwest
         Atlantic as *the soft belly of Argentina* and the policy has been to
         sponsor oil related activities in the area to contain the
         *encroaching* British companies, according to Argentina*s Cronista
         Comercial, a financial newspaper close to the government.
         *A positive result in the area would give a boost to the industry,
         and investments, and also most importantly signal defence of our
         sovereignty*, said an Argentine Defence ministry source.
         The consortium involved in the coming drilling round is estimated to
         pour into the operation 140 million US dollars. A 3D survey of the
         area to be explored was recently finished and analyzed.
         Apparently the project was almost cancelled at the end of last year,
         but YPF was finally able to contract a semi-submersible rig which
         has the necessary fittings to stand weather conditions in the South
         Atlantic. Built to stand ten metre waves the rig is permanently
         fixed to its position by a GPS system and four independent turbines.
         The vessel will be operating in waters 1.500 metres deep and
         drilling is expected to exceed 3.000 metres.
         Spain*s Repsol-YPF has sold some of its YPF assets back to Argentine
         interests, particularly the Eskenazi family which is very close to
         the Kirchner couple and had promised to go ahead with the Malvinas
         basin project.
","2010-09-21 21:15:37",1,"2012-02-27 22:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/904949_re-latam-intro-falklands-malvinas-drilling-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:latam@stratfor.com","latam@stratfor.com",""
909781,"Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
","   We need to change that.  A simple email to IT before a trip gets you off
   the list. 
   From: Kamran Bokhari <bokhari@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2011 16:51:42 -0400
   To: <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
   Ok, but even when I have been outside the continent I have still been on
   secure. 
   On 7/29/11 4:03 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     Yeah. We don't consider Canada to really be overseas.  
     From: Kamran Bokhari <bokhari@stratfor.com>
     Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2011 15:49:34 -0400
     To: <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
     I have always been secure even though I am always overseas.

     On 7/29/11 2:59 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       Ok, good question.

       The secure list is not supposed to have anyone overseas on it.  (And
       as a side note, if you are traveling overseas you need to get yourself
       off this list while out of the country.)  We have many WOs overseas
       and so when we send something to secure it is just one more way we are
       trying to protect sourcing by not having it sent over international
       wires (yes, of course, there are many ways that foreigners can access
       any insight sent from anywhere at anytime, but it is somewhat more
       secure when we email only within CONUS).  So either a source or
       insight that is highly sensitive needs to go to the secure list only,
       and that means that we send it in ourselves because the overseas WOs
       won't be able to pick it up.

       Alpha goes to analysts/writers (and the few others selected on this
       list) and not ADPs or Interns, including to analysts/writers overseas.

       On 7/29/11 1:50 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

         your last line in the P.S.... said to send things directly to
         secure... I wanted to know if that meant only to secure or to alpha
         too.
         I think there is still some confusion over which list is which.
         On 7/29/11 1:47 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

           I don't understand your question.  This applies to both lists. 
           All sources need IDs (as mentioned in my PS - does that answer
           your question?).

           As to the question of sending from BBs, I definitely understand
           that issue.  When you return to your computer, please reply to the
           insight sent out with the full coding.  We need this info to
           really track insight and any changes over time.

           On 7/29/11 1:45 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

             secure or alpha?

             On 7/29/11 1:41 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

 We've gotten lazy on insight source IDs again.  Not only do you need to
 put the source code in the subject line, but all of these categories
 need to be filled out for every single insight sent to the list.

 SOURCE: code
 ATTRIBUTION: this is what we should say if we use this info in a
 publication, e.g. STRATFOR source/source in the medical industry/source
 on the ground, etc
 SOURCE DESCRIPTION: this is where we put the more concrete details of
 the source for our internal consumption so we can better understand the
 source's background and ability to make the assessments in the insight
 PUBLICATION: Yes or no.  If you put yes it doesn't mean that we will
 publish it, but only that we can publish it.
 SOURCE RELIABILITY: A-F, A being the best and F being the worst.  this
 grades the turnaround time of this source in responding to requests
 ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1-10, 1 being the best and 10 being the worst (we may
 change the range here in the future).  this changes a lot based on the
 info provided.  1 is \"you can take this to the bank\" and 10 would be an
 example of maybe - \"this is a totally ridiculous rumor but something
 that is spreading on the ground\"
 SPECIAL HANDLING: often this is \"none\" but it may be something like, \"if
 you use this we need to be sure not to mention the part about XXX in the
 publication\" or any other special notes
 SOURCE HANDLER: the person who can take follow-up questions and
 communicate with the source

 If you have any questions, concerns or suggestions, let me know.  I'll
 be back in the office next Tues so if you want to discuss this process
 in person we can do so soon.  In the meantime, remember that every piece
 of insight needs this ENTIRE ID unless it is just something that you
 picked up off the ground from a source that you will likely not hear
 from again.  Even then, you should fill out the entire ID and in the
 SOURCE field simply say - n/a with a description on why we are not
 coding them.

 Jen
 PS: Also remember that is something is highly sensitive to send directly
 - not thru a WO - to the \"secure\" list.  Secure list insights still need
 the above ID tags.


             --
             Lauren Goodrich
             Senior Eurasia Analyst
             STRATFOR
             T: 512.744.4311
             F: 512.744.4334
             lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
             www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.comwww.stratfor.com

         --
         Lauren Goodrich
         Senior Eurasia Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: 512.744.4311
         F: 512.744.4334
         lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.comwww.stratfor.com
","2011-07-29 22:58:35",1,"2012-02-27 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/909781_re-alpha-sourcing-insight-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
910301,"Re: [latam] INTRO: Falklands/Malvinas drilling
","   They think that Argentina is not a threat. They are more afraid of the UK
   because they associate it with NATO.

   The latest Brazil s national plan of defense says that the South Atlantic
   should be one of Brazils security priorities.

    

   Paulo Gregoire
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"LatAm AOR\" <latam@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 22, 2010 4:10:46 AM
   Subject: Re: [latam] INTRO: Falklands/Malvinas drilling

   so brazil is establishing itself as a protector of Argentina?

   interesting...
   i guess they can afford to do so if they perceive Argentina as being that
   week
   On Sep 21, 2010, at 2:09 PM, Paulo Gregoire wrote:

     Yes I will try to get insight. Brazil has mentioned a few times that the
     South Atlantic is a  blue amazon  and that no northern country should
     be occupying it.  Since Lula came to power Brazil has shown signs of
     support to Argentina in the Malvinas issue.
     They do not want to have the UK next to the pre-salt reserves.

     Paulo Gregoire
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
     To: \"LatAm AOR\" <latam@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Wednesday, September 22, 2010 3:37:57 AM
     Subject: Re: [latam] INTRO: Falklands/Malvinas drilling

     This is very strange that Petrobras is involved (also interesting that
     Spain is backing Argentina up).
     Paulo, can you try to collect insight on what is going on here?
     Petrobras participating in this project is a pretty strong show of
     support for Argentina in a dispute where Argentina has looked completely
     helpless.  Why is Brazil/Petrobras doing this?
     On Sep 21, 2010, at 1:35 PM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

       Not sure who Mercopress is but they tend to report on
       Malvinas/Falklands stuff more completely than other news outlets and a
       bit faster than Argentine press.  The two articles below are the
       initial announcement (was repped) that the Govt plans its own
       exploration activities and the second is the most recent article
       saying that exploration plans are still on track for the start of Dec
       2010.  The initial announcement was well timed, just about a week
       after the natl holiday for Malvinas in Argentina (April 2).

       For now it looks like YPF-Repsol, Petrobras and Pan American Energy
       will participate in the exploration.  Not sure how PAE's association
       with British Petroleum would affect things (if at all).  I'm not sure
       why I though Uruguay was somehow involved (wishful thinking?).  

       April 9th 2010 - 02:57 UTC
       - http://en.mercopress.com/2010/04/09/argentina-to-drill-two-wells-next-to-falklands-waters-in-last-quarter

    Argentina to drill two wells next to Falklandsa** waters in last quarter

       Several oil companies operating in Argentina have teamed up to begin
       hydrocarbons explorations close to Falklandsa** waters. The companies
       have programmed to spend 140 million US dollars in two exploratory
       wells for which they have contracted a special drilling vessel,
       according to reports in the Buenos Aires press.
       Companies involved are YPF, Brazila**s Petrobras and PAE which is an
       association of Argentinaa**s Bridas and British Petroleum.
       The vessel a**Stena DriMaxa** is scheduled to drill two 2.000 metres
       wells in an area 320 kilometres from Rio Grande and 498 kilometres
       from Rio Gallegos.
       Although not many details of the operation have been disclosed
       a**Stena DriMaxa** should be arriving in the last quarter of the year
       and will count with three support vessels operating from Comodoro
       Rivadavia as the logistics base.
       An estimated 250 people will be involved in the drilling round, says
       the Buenos Aires press. The vessel can accommodate 180 people.
       YPF has drilled in the South Atlantic, mainly offshore Chubut province
       in relatively shallow waters but this time the operation is to take
       place at an average depth of 500 metres according to the Buenos Aires
       press.
       Stena DrillMax is currently operating off-shore Brazil contracted by
       YPF parent company, Spaina**s Repsol.
       The initiative apparently has been spurred by the Argentine government
       in response to the exploratory drilling round in Falklandsa** waters
       by four British companies with the oil rig Ocean Guardian, and which
       has infuriated Argentine authorities and upset public opinion.
       The first well drilled in the north Falkland basin by Desire Petroleum
       showed abundant signs of oil and gas but was finally sealed since it
       lacked the sufficient commercial volumes.
       According to the Stena Drilling website, the company is a wholly owned
       subsidiary of Stena AB, Gothenburg, Sweden and is one of the world's
       foremost independent drilling contractors.
       In 1989 and 1996 Stena acquired Houlder Marine Drilling and Ben Line
       Steamers / Atlantic Drilling respectively; and with them, history and
       pedigree dating back to the mid-1970s. The acquisitions were strategic
       in providing Stena Drilling, not only with worthy drilling units, but
       also with staff and personnel, who brought invaluable operational
       experience and success into the Company.
       Today, Stena Drilling manages a global business, holding a portfolio
       of successful, past and present operations in the North Sea, US Gulf
       of Mexico, South East Asia, Mediterranean, Caribbean, South America,
       Australia, North Africa and West Africa. In expanding its fleet of
       well-maintained drilling units, the Company has had an active role in
       building and converting rigs and, in doing so, pioneering some of the
       most leading-edge technologies and innovations in the drilling world.
       The 228 metres long Stena DrillMax was built by Samsung Heavy
       Industries, South Korea and is described as a dynamically positioned
       drilling vessels designed for year round world wide operations in
       ultra deep waters. She has a water depth capacity of 10.000 ft and
       35.000 deep drilling with a variable deck load of 15.000 tons. 

       Argentina confirms drilling in Malvinas basin for next December
       September 15th 2010 - 05:46
       UTC - http://en.mercopress.com/2010/09/15/argentina-confirms-drilling-in-malvinas-basin-for-next-december
       The Argentine press confirmed that following the contracting of a
       semi-submersible rig from the Swedish company Stensa, a consortium of
       Argentine based oil companies will begin exploratory drilling in the
       Malvinas basin next December.
       The consortium which includes YPF-Repsol, Pan American Energy and
       Petrobras will be drilling half way between the Falkland Islands and
       Tierra del Fuego, in what is considered the most austral hydrocarbons
       offshore exploratory operation in Argentine history.
       The initiative is seen as a strong reply from Argentina to the
       exploratory round in Falklandsa** waters which the government of
       President Cristina Kirchner has condemned and rejected as
       a**illegala** since these are a**disputed watersa**, according to the
       Argentine argument.
       At least five London quoted companies have drilled or have announced
       plans to drill in Falklandsa** waters taking advantage of the a**Ocean
       Guardiana** rig.
       In Buenos Aires Defence ministry strategy considers the southwest
       Atlantic as a**the soft belly of Argentinaa** and the policy has been
       to sponsor oil related activities in the area to contain the
       a**encroachinga** British companies, according to Argentinaa**s
       Cronista Comercial, a financial newspaper close to the government.
       a**A positive result in the area would give a boost to the industry,
       and investments, and also most importantly signal defence of our
       sovereigntya**, said an Argentine Defence ministry source.
       The consortium involved in the coming drilling round is estimated to
       pour into the operation 140 million US dollars. A 3D survey of the
       area to be explored was recently finished and analyzed.
       Apparently the project was almost cancelled at the end of last year,
       but YPF was finally able to contract a semi-submersible rig which has
       the necessary fittings to stand weather conditions in the South
       Atlantic. Built to stand ten metre waves the rig is permanently fixed
       to its position by a GPS system and four independent turbines. The
       vessel will be operating in waters 1.500 metres deep and drilling is
       expected to exceed 3.000 metres.
       Spaina**s Repsol-YPF has sold some of its YPF assets back to Argentine
       interests, particularly the Eskenazi family which is very close to the
       Kirchner couple and had promised to go ahead with the Malvinas basin
       project.
","2010-09-21 21:15:38",1,"2012-02-27 22:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/910301_re-latam-intro-falklands-malvinas-drilling-.html","paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com","mailto:latam@stratfor.com","latam@stratfor.com",""
942090,"Geopolitical Weekly : Taking Stock of WikiLeaks
","    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Taking Stock of WikiLeaks                                                  
                                                                              
    December 14, 2010                                                         
                                                                              
    Germany and the Failure of Multiculturalism                               
                                                                              
    By George Friedman                                                        
                                                                              
    Julian Assange has declared that geopolitics will be separated into       
    pre-\"Cablegate\" and post-\"Cablegate\" eras. That was a bold claim.         
    However, given the intense interest that the leaks produced, it is a      
    claim that ought to be carefully considered. Several weeks have passed    
    since the first of the diplomatic cables were released, and it is time    
    now to address the following questions: First, how significant were the   
    leaks? Second, how could they have happened? Third, was their release a   
    crime? Fourth, what were their consequences? Finally, and most            
    important, is the WikiLeaks premise that releasing government secrets is  
    a healthy and appropriate act a tenable position?                         
                                                                              
    Let's begin by recalling that the U.S. State Department documents         
    constituted the third wave of leaks. The first two consisted of           
    battlefield reports from Iraq and Afghanistan. Looking back on those as   
    a benchmark, it is difficult to argue that they revealed information      
    that ran counter to informed opinion. I use the term \"informed opinion\"   
    deliberately. For someone who was watching Iraq and Afghanistan with      
    some care over the previous years, the leaks might have provided          
    interesting details but they would not have provided any startling        
    distinction between the reality that was known and what was revealed.     
    If, on the other hand, you weren't paying close attention, and WikiLeaks  
    provided your first and only view of the battlefields in any detail, you  
    might have been surprised.                                                
                                                                              
    Let's consider the most controversial revelation, one of the tens of      
    thousands of reports released on Iraq and Afghanistan and one in which a  
    video indicated that civilians were deliberately targeted by U.S.         
    troops. The first point, of course, is that the insurgents, in violation  
    of the 1949 Geneva Conventions, did not go into combat wearing armbands   
    or other distinctive clothing to distinguish themselves from              
    non-combatants. The Geneva Conventions have always been adamant on this   
    requirement because they regarded combatants operating under the cover    
    of civilians as being responsible for putting those civilians in harm's   
    way, not the uniformed troops who were forced to distinguish between      
    combatants and non-combatants when the combatants deliberately chose to   
    act in violation of the Geneva Conventions.                               
                                                                              
    It follows from this that such actions against civilians are inevitable   
    in the kind of war Iraqi insurgents chose to wage. Obviously, this        
    particular event has to be carefully analyzed, but in a war in which      
    combatants blend with non-combatants, civilian casualties will occur,     
    and so will criminal actions by uniformed troops. Hundreds of thousands   
    of troops have fought in Iraq, and the idea that criminal acts would be   
    absent is absurd. What is most startling is not the presence of           
    potentially criminal actions but their scarcity. Anyone who has been      
    close to combat or who has read histories of World War II would be        
    struck not by the presence of war crimes but by the fact that in all the  
    WikiLeaks files so few potential cases are found. War is controlled       
    violence, and when controls fail - as they inevitably do - uncontrolled   
    and potentially criminal violence occurs. However, the case cited by      
    WikiLeaks with much fanfare did not clearly show criminal actions on the  
    part of American troops as much as it did the consequences of the         
    insurgents violating the Geneva Conventions.                              
                                                                              
    Only those who were not paying attention to the fact that there was a     
    war going on, or who had no understanding of war, or who wanted to        
    pretend to be shocked for political reasons, missed two crucial points:   
    It was the insurgents who would be held responsible for criminal acts     
    under the Geneva Conventions for posing as non-combatants, and there      
    were extraordinarily few cases of potential war crimes that were          
    contained in the leaks.                                                   
                                                                              
    The diplomatic leaks are similar. There is precious little that was       
    revealed that was unknown to the informed observer. For example, anyone   
    reading STRATFOR knows we have argued that it was not only the Israelis   
    but also the Saudis that were most concerned about Iranian power and      
    most insistent that the United States do something about it. While the    
    media treated this as a significant revelation, it required a profound    
    lack of understanding of the geopolitics of the Persian Gulf to regard    
    U.S. diplomatic cables on the subject as surprising.                      
                                                                              
    U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates' statement in the leaks that the      
    Saudis were always prepared to fight to the last American was             
    embarrassing, in the sense that Gates would have to meet with Saudi       
    leaders in the future and would do so with them knowing what he thinks    
    of them. Of course, the Saudis are canny politicians and diplomats and    
    they already knew how the American leadership regarded their demands.     
                                                                              
    There were other embarrassments also known by the informed observer.      
    Almost anyone who worries about such things is aware that Italian Prime   
    Minister Silvio Berlusconi is close to the Russians and likes to party    
    with young women. The latest batch of leaks revealed that the American    
    diplomatic service was also aware of this. And now Berlusconi is aware    
    that they know of these things, which will make it hard for diplomats to  
    pretend that they don't know of these things. Of course, Berlusconi was   
    aware that everyone knew of these things and clearly didn't care, since   
    the charges were all over Italian media.                                  
                                                                              
    I am not cherry-picking the Saudi or Italian memos. The consistent        
    reality of the leaks is that they do not reveal anything new to the       
    informed but do provide some amusement over certain comments, such as     
    Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitri Medvedev       
    being called \"Batman and Robin.\" That's amusing, but it isn't             
    significant. Amusing and interesting but almost never significant is      
    what I come away with having read through all three waves of leaks.       
                                                                              
    Obviously, the leaks are being used by foreign politicians to their own   
    advantage. For example, the Russians feigned shock that NATO would be     
    reassuring the Balts about defense against a potential Russian invasion   
    or the Poles using the leaks to claim that solid U.S.-Polish relations    
    are an illusion. The Russians know well of NATO plans for defending the   
    Baltic states against a hypothetical Russian invasion, and the Poles      
    know equally well that U.S.-Polish relations are complex but far from     
    illusory. The leaks provide an opportunity for feigning shock and anger   
    and extracting possible minor concessions or controlling atmospherics.    
    They do not, however, change the structure of geopolitics.                
                                                                              
    Indeed, U.S. diplomats come away looking sharp, insightful and decent.    
    While their public statements after a conference may be vacuous, it is    
    encouraging to see that their read of the situation and of foreign        
    leaders is unsentimental and astute. Everything from memos on senior      
    leaders to anonymous snippets from apparently junior diplomats not only   
    are on target (in the sense that STRATFOR agrees with them) but are also  
    well-written and clear. I would argue that the leaks paint a flattering   
    picture overall of the intellect of U.S. officials without revealing,     
    for the most part, anything particularly embarrassing.                    
                                                                              
    At the same time, there were snarky and foolish remarks in some of the    
    leaks, particularly personal comments about leaders and sometimes their   
    families that were unnecessarily offensive. Some of these will damage     
    diplomatic careers, most generated a good deal of personal tension and    
    none of their authors will likely return to the countries in which they   
    served. Much was indeed unprofessional, but the task of a diplomat is to  
    provide a sense of place in its smallest details, and none expect their   
    observations ever to be seen by the wrong people. Nor do nations ever     
    shift geopolitical course over such insults, not in the long run. These   
    personal insults were by far the most significant embarrassments to be    
    found in the latest release. Personal tension is not, however,            
    international tension.                                                    
                                                                              
    This raises the question of why diplomats can't always simply state       
    their minds rather than publicly mouth preposterous platitudes. It could  
    be as simple as this: My son was a terrible pianist. He completely        
    lacked talent. After his recitals at age 10, I would pretend to be        
    enthralled. He knew he was awful and he knew I knew he was awful, but it  
    was appropriate that I not admit what I knew. It is called politeness     
    and sometimes affection. There is rarely affection among nations, but     
    politeness calls for behaving differently when a person is in the         
    company of certain other people than when that person is with colleagues  
    talking about those people. This is the simplest of human rules. Not      
    admitting what you know about others is the foundation of civilization.   
    The same is true among diplomats and nations.                             
                                                                              
    And in the end, this is all I found in the latest WikiLeaks release: a    
    great deal of information about people who aren't American that others    
    certainly knew and were aware that the Americans knew, and now they have  
    all seen it in writing. It would take someone who truly doesn't           
    understand how geopolitics really works to think that this would make a   
    difference. Some diplomats may wind up in other postings, and perhaps     
    some careers will be ended. But the idea that this would somehow change   
    the geopolitics of our time is really hard to fathom. I have yet to see   
    Assange point to something so significant that that it would justify his  
    claim. It may well be that the United States is hiding secrets that       
    would reveal it to be monstrous. If so, it is not to be found in what     
    has been released so far.                                                 
                                                                              
    There is, of course, the question of whether states should hold secrets,  
    which is at the root of the WikiLeaks issue. Assange claims that by       
    revealing these secrets WikiLeaks is doing a service. His ultimate        
    maxim, as he has said on several occasions, is that if money and          
    resources are being spent on keeping something secret, then the reasons   
    must be insidious. Nations have secrets for many reasons, from            
    protecting a military or intelligence advantage to seeking some           
    advantage in negotiations to, at times, hiding nefarious plans. But it    
    is difficult to imagine a state - or a business or a church - acting      
    without confidentiality. Imagine that everything you wrote and said in    
    an attempt to figure out a problem was made public? Every stupid idea     
    that you discarded or clueless comment you expressed would now be pinned  
    on you. But more than that, when you argue that nations should engage in  
    diplomacy rather than war, taking away privacy makes diplomacy            
    impossible. If what you really think of the guy on the other side of the  
    table is made public, how can diplomacy work?                             
                                                                              
    This is the contradiction at the heart of the WikiLeaks project. Given    
    what I have read Assange saying, he seems to me to be an opponent of war  
    and a supporter of peace. Yet what he did in leaking these documents, if  
    the leaking did anything at all, is make diplomacy more difficult. It is  
    not that it will lead to war by any means; it is simply that one cannot   
    advocate negotiations and then demand that negotiators be denied          
    confidentiality in which to conduct their negotiations. No business       
    could do that, nor could any other institution. Note how vigorously       
    WikiLeaks hides the inner workings of its own organization, from how it   
    is funded to the people it employs.                                       
                                                                              
    Assange's claims are made even more interesting in terms of his           
    \"thermonuclear\" threat. Apparently there are massive files that will be   
    revealed if any harm comes to him. Implicit is the idea that they will    
    not be revealed if he is unharmed - otherwise the threat makes no sense.  
    So, Assange's position is that he has secrets and will keep them secret   
    if he is not harmed. I regard this as a perfectly reasonable and          
    plausible position. One of the best uses for secrets is to control what   
    the other side does to you. So Assange is absolutely committed to         
    revealing the truth unless it serves his interests not to, in which case  
    the public has no need to know.                                           
                                                                              
    It is difficult to see what harm the leaks have done, beyond              
    embarrassment. It is also difficult to understand why WikiLeaks thinks    
    it has changed history or why Assange lacks a sufficient sense of irony   
    not to see the contradiction between his position on openness and his     
    willingness to keep secrets when they benefit him. But there is also      
    something important here, which is how this all was leaked in the first   
    place.                                                                    
                                                                              
    To begin that explanation, we have to go back to 9/11 and the feeling in  
    its aftermath that the failure of various government entities to share    
    information contributed to the disaster. The answer was to share          
    information so that intelligence analysts could draw intelligence from    
    all sources in order to connect the dots. Intelligence organizations      
    hate sharing information because it makes vast amounts of information     
    vulnerable. Compartmentalization makes it hard to connect dots, but it    
    also makes it harder to have a WikiLeaks release. The tension between     
    intelligence and security is eternal, and there will never be a clear     
    solution.                                                                 
                                                                              
    The real issue is who had access to this mass of files and what controls  
    were put on them. Did the IT department track all external drives or      
    e-mails? One of the reasons to be casual is that this was information     
    that was classified secret and below, with the vast majority being at     
    the confidential, no-foreign-distribution level. This information was     
    not considered highly sensitive by the U.S. government. Based on the      
    latest trove, it is hard to figure out how the U.S. government decides    
    to classify material. But it has to be remembered that given their level  
    of classification these files did not have the highest security around    
    them because they were not seen as highly sensitive.                      
                                                                              
    Still, a crime occurred. According to the case of Daniel Ellsberg, who    
    gave a copy of the Pentagon Papers on Vietnam to a New York Times         
    reporter, it is a crime for someone with a security clearance to provide  
    classified material for publication but not a crime for a publisher to    
    publish it, or so it has become practice since the Ellsberg case. Legal   
    experts can debate the nuances, but this has been the practice for        
    almost 40 years. The bright line is whether the publisher in any way      
    encouraged or participated in either the theft of the information or in   
    having it passed on to him. In the Ellsberg case, he handed it to         
    reporters without them even knowing what it was. Assange has been         
    insisting that he was the passive recipient of information that he had    
    nothing to do with securing.                                              
                                                                              
    Now it is interesting whether the sheer existence of WikiLeaks            
    constituted encouragement or conspiracy with anyone willing to pass on    
    classified information to him. But more interesting by far is the         
    sequence of events that led a U.S. Army private first class not only to   
    secure the material but to know where to send it and how to get it        
    there. If Pfc. Bradley Manning conceived and executed the theft by        
    himself, and gave the information to WikiLeaks unprompted, Assange is     
    clear. But anyone who assisted Manning or encouraged him is probably      
    guilty of conspiracy, and if Assange knew what was being done, he is      
    probably guilty, too. There was talk about some people at MIT helping     
    Manning. Unscrambling the sequence is what the Justice Department is      
    undoubtedly doing now. Assange cannot be guilty of treason, since he      
    isn't a U.S. citizen. But he could be guilty of espionage. His best       
    defense will be that he can't be guilty of espionage because the          
    material that was stolen was so trivial.                                  
                                                                              
    I have no idea whether or when he got involved in the acquisition of the  
    material. I do know - given the material leaked so far - that there is    
    little beyond minor embarrassments contained within it. Therefore,        
    Assange's claim that geopolitics has changed is as false as it is bold.   
    Whether he committed any crime, including rape, is something I have no    
    idea about. What he is clearly guilty of is hyperbole. But contrary to    
    what he intended, he did do a service to the United States. New controls  
    will be placed on the kind of low-grade material he published. Secretary  
    of Defense Gates made the following point on this:                        
                                                                              
      \"Now, I've heard the impact of these releases on our foreign policy     
      described as a meltdown, as a game-changer, and so on. I think those    
      descriptions are fairly significantly overwrought. The fact is,         
      governments deal with the United States because it's in their           
      interest, not because they like us, not because they trust us, and not  
      because they believe we can keep secrets. Many governments - some       
      governments - deal with us because they fear us, some because they      
      respect us, most because they need us. We are still essentially, as     
      has been said before, the indispensable nation.\"                        
                                                                              
      \"Is this embarrassing? Yes. Is it awkward? Yes. Consequences for U.S.   
      foreign policy? I think fairly modest.\"                                 
                                                                              
    I don't like to give anyone else the final word, but in this case Robert  
    Gates' view is definitive. One can pretend that WikiLeaks has redefined   
    geopolitics, but it hasn't come close.                                    
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
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    \"This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR\"                  
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
","2010-12-14 11:10:05",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/942090_geopolitical-weekly-taking-stock-of-wikileaks-.html","noreply@stratfor.com","","duchin@stratfor.com",""
948956,"INSIGHT - MOLDOVA - Part 4 - Future Challenge for Russia in Moldova
","   SOURCE: MD101
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Washington & Chisinau
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Head of Moldovan Lobby in Washington, but lives
   partially in Chisinau & super close to most politicians
   PUBLICATION: yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   THE FUTURE OF MOLDOVA

   Russia will consolidate Moldova a** no one doubts this. But the question
   is whether Russia can start to influence the new generation.

   The older generation and the people from the countryside of Moldova
   considers themselves Moldovan a** and tied to its old ways and Moscow. But
   the new generation and those in the capital consider themselves either
   pro-Western Moldovan or actually tied to Romanian identity (not the
   country, which is important to distinguish).

   It was this younger generation that rioted last time, but they are only in
   the capital and not the rest of the country. The older generation plus
   anyone in the country highly outnumbers the younger or capital generation.

   Also, the Communists and Voronin are great at literally knocking on the
   doors in the countryside to influence this population.

   Russia just needs to influence the capital/younger population. Russia is
   trying to do this with expanding its ties with non-Communist parties. But
   it hasna**t been successful thus far and needs to really make this its
   next focus after the next election.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-10-01 04:11:20",1,"2012-03-05 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/948956_insight-moldova-part-4-future-challenge-for-russia-in.html","chris.farnham@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
952814,"Re: INSIGHT - MOLDOVA - Part 3 - Germany, US, Romania, Ukraine
","     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Chris Farnham\" <chris.farnham@stratfor.com>
   To: \"analysts\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, September 30, 2010 9:10:53 PM
   Subject: INSIGHT - MOLDOVA - Part 3 - Germany, US, Romania, Ukraine

   SOURCE: MD101
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Washington & Chisinau
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Head of Moldovan Lobby in Washington, but lives
   partially in Chisinau & super close to most politicians
   PUBLICATION: yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   GERMANY

   As far as Germany, Germans have a**historica** ties to having former
   villages and pockets of former population in Moldova. Russia kicked them
   out, so there is a strange resentment between Germany and Russia over
   Moldova.  yeah, this is a huge factor in both Moldova and Romania

   But this isna**t a red-line.

   Instead, it is more about how the Moldova solidification will ripple
   through Central Europe. But Germany can contain Russiaa**s move if it gets
   an answer on Transdniestria. This will allow Germany to say to Europe
   a**see, if we work with Russia, then we can accept your ruling there.
   Germanya**s representative on the issue a** Patricia Flor a** told Russia
   that if Moscow could get a resolution between Transdniestria and Moldova
   started then Germany would be more open to Russia controlling the country.
   Germany also said that if Russia could get a resolution started then the
   rest of the EU would see it as a positive step in security assurances to
   Europe.

   I have this feeling as well. I am wondering what he means by \"Gets an
   answer\"... on what? Just what Russia plans to do in general? Troops
   specifically?

   This basically goes with our initial take that Germany is testing Russia's
   level of commitment and security cooperation. Moldova is not a do or die
   situation for Germany. Germany can survive with Moldova in Russia's hands.
   It has been for the past 20 years anyway.
   UKRAINE, ROMANIA & US

   Ukraine is on board with whatever Russia wants on the Moldova issue,
   moreover it will help Russia with whatever is needed to help consolidate
   the country.

   Romania is simply terrible at influencing the country. Sure it wants to
   hold Moldova from Russia and to its own. But Romania has not done any
   grassroots moves. The US as asked Romania to set up NGOs, media, etca*|.
   it hasna**t. Romania tried after the last election to set up a Moldova
   Fund to invest in the countrya**but it has only given 100 million euros
   thus far a** which is nothing.

   The US has NO ONE interested in the country. Literally, the lobby in
   Washington has no ties in government a** especially Congress, Senate, NSC,
   etc. The only thing is a Moldova desk at State a** which means nothing.
   There is even no USAID to Moldova. Sure MMC gives some money to Moldova,
   but only $262 million.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-10-01 13:52:39",1,"2012-03-05 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/952814_re-insight-moldova-part-3-germany-us-romania-ukraine-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
953563,"[alpha] INSIGHT - CHINA - Chinese coal imports - WW steel
 Production - (VIA) CN65
","   SOURCE:  CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes, no attribution
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

     Coal imports into China remain at low level
     After falling to a 23-month low of 6.8 Mt in February, China's coal
     imports in March climbed by 2.3 Mt month-on-month to 9.1 Mt, according
     to latest data from China Customs Statistics. This is, however, still
     6.1 Mt or 40% lower year-on-year, mainly due to unfavourable price
     differentials between domestic and international supplies. Total
     imports in the 1q11 of 32.4 Mt were 11.1 Mt lower than the previous
     quarter, compared with 44.4 Mt in the corresponding period last year.
     Do not forget that China has considerable logistical problems moving her
     domestic coal 'internally' to end users which periodically results in
     her being
     forced to increase imports to maintain supplies to her power stations
     and steel
     mills, which is why China's imports for coal remain 'lumpy'.
     China is fast developing her large Mongolian coal supplies, which I am
     told
     includes cokaing coal, however once again logistic problems 'bottle
     neck'
     the supply chain to end users and as vast as these coal supplies are
     expected to
     be they can only sumpliment her needs, they cannot replace them. As
     China's
     demand for energy (coal fired) and steel production (coking coal)
     increases, Her
     overall demand for imported coal 'on average' can be expected to
     increase.
     Global steel production hit a new record
     World crude steel production rose 7.0% year-on-year to a new monthly
     record of 129.3 Mt in March, according to data from the World Steel
     Association. Total global output in the 1q11 was 371.5 Mt, up 8.8%
     from the year-ago level. Asia contributed 64% of total production in
     the first three months of the year, at 237.3 Mt, with an increase of
     9.1% year-on-year. January-March production in Europe was 6.9% higher
     at 45.6 Mt while the US produced 7.1% more year-on-year.
     This simply emphasises the real problem for steel producers and end
     users.
     The increasing WW demand for iron ore and coking coal continues to
     outpace WW
     ability to physically mine and export it and is the one fact that will
     sustain a
     rising trend in both iron ore and coal prices at the expense of dry bulk
     freight
     which is hugely over supplied as compared to maximum possible exports.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
","2011-04-21 16:50:32",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/953563_-alpha-insight-china-chinese-coal-imports-ww-steel.html","ben.preisler@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
955624,"INSIGHT - MOLDOVA - Part II - Transdniestria & Russia
","   SOURCE: MD101
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Washington & Chisinau
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Head of Moldovan Lobby in Washington, but lives
   partially in Chisinau & super close to most politicians
   PUBLICATION: yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   TRANSDNIESTRIA

   The a**suspensiona** of financial aid and cooperation between banks to
   Transdniestria has three facets. First off, it is only the a**officiala**
   suspension of funds. Russia only recognized that it gave funds officially
   to Transdniestria a few years ago. So the funds will now just be
   unofficial. No one believes that the funds will stop a** especially in
   Transdniestria.

   The next issue is that Russia is sick of the political situation inside of
   Transdniestria surrounding the funds. In February Russia sent a letter to
   President Smirnov to not a**misusea** funds from Russia. Russia knew that
   the funds were being handled by Smirnova**s son, Oleg, who heads the main
   bank in the secessionist republic. Meaning the funds stayed inside the
   Smirnov family and didna**t impact the people in Transdniestria a** so it
   is hard for it to influence the people. So, Russia then did an a**audita**
   of the transfers and found a bunch of discrepancies a** giving them the
   ability to justify the a**officiala** cut-off. Now Russia can funnel the
   funds their own way.

   Lastly, this is a statement for Moldova proper and the region a** as if
   Russia is more interested in Moldova proper instead of Transdniestria.
   This made it look to Moldova proper that Russia was pulling its support
   for Transdniestriaa*| leading the public in Moldova to consider linking to
   Moscow. It is all about influencing the elections.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-10-01 04:10:28",1,"2012-03-05 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/955624_insight-moldova-part-ii-transdniestria-and-russia-.html","chris.farnham@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
955839,"RE: Labor Day Review of Where We Are
","   Can I get 30 minutes of G's time sometime this week?

    

   From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@att.blackberry.net]
   Sent: Tuesday, September 06, 2011 3:07 PM
   To: Kevin Stech
   Subject: Re: Labor Day Review of Where We Are

    

   Sure

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Kevin Stech\" <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>

   Date: Tue, 6 Sep 2011 15:02:20 -0500 (CDT)

   To: 'George Friedman'<gfriedman@stratfor.com>

   Subject: RE: Labor Day Review of Where We Are

    

   I would like to talk with you about these and other thoughts. Can I have
   Susan schedule something?

    

   From: Kevin Stech [mailto:kevin.stech@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, September 05, 2011 7:02 PM
   To: George Friedman
   Cc: rbaker@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Labor Day Review of Where We Are

    

   George,

    

   There is a part of the company that you did not mention in this missive,
   and that is the research department. There was probably no need to make
   this mention, but I want to make sure a few things are on your radar.

    

   Research is a group that must grow and evolve in step with other changes
   occurring within the company. I've identified several large gaps in our
   capabilities that I plan to help remedy. I have attached a word document
   with my thoughts. Please give them due consideration.

    

   Thank you,

    

   Kevin

    

    

   From: stratforaustin-bounces@stratfor.com
   [mailto:stratforaustin-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of George Friedman
   Sent: Monday, September 05, 2011 14:55
   To: allstratfor
   Subject: Labor Day Review of Where We Are

    

   THIS IS FOR INTERNAL STRATFOR USE ONLY. DO NOT SHARE THIS DOCUMENT OR
   DISCUSS IT OUTSIDE OF STRATFOR.

    

    

    

   I hope you've all had a great Labor Day Weekend. This Labor Day marks a
   turning point in Stratfor's history, and I wanted to share my thoughts
   with you and some plans. It used to be, not so long ago, that we were so
   small that information flowed to all hands by itself.  It is hard for me
   to recognize sometimes that this is no longer true, so I will provide an
   extensive review of where we are and what is coming.  Some of this will be
   old hat to some of you; some of this will be new.  This is an attempt to
   start getting everyone on the same page. 

    

   Historically, Stratfor was unique in a number of ways. First, we accepted
   no advertising. Second, we charged for our subscriptions. Finally, we were
   revenue driven. We build the company from our revenues.  This kept us
   independent, it kept us free to experiment-and at times fail, it kept us
   tight. We were reaching a point where we our revenues did not keep up with
   our needs and market opportunities.

    

   Shea Morenz provided us with two opportunities.  First, he made an
   investment in Stratfor designed to give us the capital needed to build our
   staff and our marketing.  Second, he proposed a new venture, StratCap,
   which would allow us to utilize the intelligence we were gathering about
   the world in a new but related venue-an investment fund. Where we had
   previously advised other hedge funds. We would now have our own, itself
   fully funded by Shea.  Shea invested over $2 million in Stratfor and more
   in StratCap. In return he took a seat on Stratfor's board and a minority
   position in Stratfor, whose control remains in Don's and my hands.  It was
   a good deal for Stratfor, a good deal for StratCap, and since the deal
   closed officially on August 1, we now have the task of doing what we all
   want-building Stratfor and StratCap.

    

   Our cash position is not spectacular by any means, but we have the
   resources to build the kind of company we want, when that investment is
   combined with our revenues.  With cash under control we need to address
   the next problem-people. We all are doing more than our share to keep
   things going.  In some ways that good but it can be overdone, and we are
   overdoing it throughout the company.  Our job now is to expand the team. 
   Money is one element of that, but relieving the pressure we are under in a
   way increases the pressure, because we have to recruit and train new
   people. So it gets harder before it gets easier, and that's the point we
   are at.

    

   Let's divide our departments into two groups.  There are those departments
   that must train their own people, particularly in intelligence beyond the
   normal training needed by new employees.  We do that because no one thinks
   of the world like Stratfor, and that means that we can't hire people from
   other organizations, or at least not without a major training programming,
   which in our experience lasts up to two years.  Then there are departments
   that don't have this burden and that can hire people readily from other
   organizations.  Both groups of departments must grow and train, but the
   burden of training is much heavier in the Intelligence departments that
   train their staff from the bottom up than on other departments.  It is
   important for everyone to understand this distinction.  It is not that
   people in Intelligence are more important or more valuable than those in
   other departments.  It just means they face different problems in growing
   and that if they don't grow, other things can't happen.

    

   Now let's consider the tasks ahead.  First and foremost-and always first
   and foremost-we must be the world's leading private intelligence
   organization (and one of the finest intelligence organizations, period)
   and we must sell our intelligence through publishing.  Our current staff
   has done an outstanding job, but they are thin and sometimes we are weak. 
   We must do better in economics, and we must make certain that no AOR
   depends on only one person. There are lots of things that are needed. 

    

   Second, we are committed to supporting StratCap, a private fund that will
   begin operations some time this coming spring. What StratCap will do is
   use our Stratfor's intelligence and analysis to trade in a range of
   geopolitical instruments, particularly government bonds, currency and the
   like in the world's emerging markets.  Shea Morenz initiated this idea and
   leads it.  At the root of StratCap is a simple idea: Stratfor should put
   its money where its mouth is.  It does not conflict with Stratfor, but is
   an extension of it.

    

   Do not think of StratCap as an outside organization.  It will be integral
   to Stratfor, in the sense that much of the intelligence we are developing
   is useful to Stratcap as well as Stratfor.  The organizational and legal
   distinctions are real and important, but StratCap is linked to Stratfor
   intellectually and contractually.  It will be useful to you if, for the
   sake of convenience, you think of it as another aspect of Stratfor and
   Shea as another executive in Stratfor. 

    

   Let me also add that it is our commitment that all our team will benefit
   if StratCap is successful through some mechanism to be defined. This isn't
   an attempt to get you to work harder for the same money.  But that
   discussion must wait until the legal and administrative relationships of
   StratCap and its relation to Stratfor are worked out and reviewed by
   something called \"compliance officers,\" people who make certain that we do
   not violate any regulations. 

    

   From that point of view, StratCap is something under construction.  You
   can see Shea Morenz hammering away building it in the corner office he
   took from Darryl. In the world of StratCap, corner offices are marketing
   tools.  This points to the fact that StratCap will be building its own
   staff and they come from a different world from Stratfor with a different
   culture.  That said, we have a great deal to learn from StratCap to
   strengthen Stratfor's understanding of economics and it has much to learn
   from us.  We are already working on mock portfolios and trades, testing
   our skills.  Kendra, Korena, Melissa, Jen, Peter, Meredith and myself are
   all involved in this along with Shea and Alfredo, a trader that makes us
   easy to understand compared to him. It's going pretty well in fact, but
   supporting StratCap will be a cultural and intellectual challenge.  It's
   important now to recognize that it is already here, growing and we will
   accommodate to it and it to us.

    

   I want to emphasize is that there is neither a legal, intellectual nor
   moral tension between Stratfor and StratCap.  We will continue to publish
   what we think is true.  StratCap is interested in our broad ideas but
   mostly in the obscure nuggets picked up by intelligence that are usually
   of little interest to our general readers.  My pledge to you and our
   readers is that our publication will remain untouched by StratCap-because
   they are merely different sides of the same coin, intelligence.

    

   We have also been asked to help the United States Marine Corps and other
   government intelligence organizations to teach them how Stratfor does what
   it does, and train them in becoming government Stratfors. We are beginning
   this project by preparing a three-year forecast for the Commandant of the
   Corps.  This is a double honor for us.  First, the professional
   intelligence community is acknowledging us as being the gold standard of
   intelligence.  Second, we are being asked to use our honest and unhedged
   views to support what is for Stratfor-an American company-its homeland. 
   Again, as with StratCap, there is no tension. We will tell the U.S.
   government precisely what we tell our readers and we think ourselves.  Our
   first lesson to the government is that intelligence organizations exist to
   make decision makers uncomfortable, not to make them feel better about
   their decisions. I didn't come this far to compromise on that. 

    

   Add to this that the fact that Turkish Chamber of Commerce (not its name
   but close enough; its name is TUSIAD) asked us to preside over their 40th
   anniversary celebration, and that the Turkish Foreign Minister and Energy
   Minister will speak at the event, and you can see both our global
   recognition and our commitment to speak the same words to every country.
   We can serve the world from the same platform.

    

   So think about it.  We have three triumphs.  First, our publication is now
   read by almost 300,000 people (counting our corporate accounts).  We are a
   major force around the world.  Second, Shea-a guy who has played with the
   big boys at Goldman Sachs, asked us to play in the majors with him. 
   Third, the USMC has asked for our help, and with them others in the
   defense community.  These are three validations of us that are precious to
   me.

    

   Obviously, there is no way in the world that we can do all these
   things-plus the endless little projects that we must do all the time-with
   the staff we have.  And given that we take two years to train new
   analysts, and all of this is on us now-we have an urgent problem.  We
   can't punt opportunities at hand and continue at our current size. Nor can
   we easily expand.  So we will therefore expand with difficulty.  There is
   no choice.  Our Analyst Development Program is the means where we train
   people and find new analysts as well as find some staff for publishing
   (watch officers, monitors, operations center and writers all under Jenna
   Colley). We will have the largest group of ADPs ever this fall, starting
   next week.  About 13 people at last count will be joining us.  This is a
   huge percentage of the number of analysts on staff. Ideally all will work
   out well and our crisis will be over.  That's unlikely but our crisis will
   be mitigated by January 1. Doing this will put a huge burden on
   Intelligence, who must do their work and also train these people, but
   there is no choice.  This is the year when we break out.  I promise to
   work side by side with the team in training and growing he organization. 
   I also promise that if we succeed, we will become one of the most
   significant and prestigious foreign policy publications in the world-and
   those that made it happen will be known.  I know there are questions about
   by-lines. You know my hesitation, but we will figure out together someway
   to make sure that the glory is shared.

    

   Intelligence is divided into three parts.  There is Strategic Intelligence
   (under Rodger assisted by Reva) that is organized geographically.  There
   is Tactical Intelligence (under Stick, assisted by Nate Hughes) that is
   organized thematically-organized crime, cyber-warfare, military,
   terrorism, security, financial flows, supply chain and so on.  There is
   then intelligence gathering, under Meredith, assisted by Jen Richmond that
   is building sources from around the world.  All of them must grow
   dramatically.  The first two will grow mostly out of the ADP pool. The
   latter will be done by extensive work in the field.  But it is the Writers
   Group that is making the most impressive evolution.  Under Jenna (and Tim
   French and Maverick) it has moved into the heart of intelligence, writing
   as well as editing.  Everyone should watch this team. They are pioneering
   things the world hasn't seen yet. Along with Watch Officers, monitors and
   the operations center, this unit is translating intelligence into product
   with increasing effectiveness.  It is now organizationally mature and
   ready to both grow and sustain the growth of Intelligence.

    

   This growth will put a tremendous strain on other departments. Leticia has
   done a tremendous job in Human Resources, but the job has grown much
   greater than she can possibly manage.  Just the process of getting visas
   for new ADPs is overwhelming, and at least half of these come from other
   countries.  We have selected an HR consulting firm to support her in the
   coming months and other solutions will be found to sustain this. HR will
   become more effective in the next months. In addition, we are retaining a
   law firm to create a policy for Stratfor on Foreign Corrupt Practices
   Act.  I don't plan to do the perp walk and I don't want anyone here doing
   it either.  We need some clear guidelines on the law and are getting them,
   particularly as we ramp our intelligence capability. Similarly finance has
   kept us all going and similarly it has to expand, although it is a shade
   less pressured than HR is.

    

   IT faces a huge challenge.  Traditional IT organizations focus on the
   development of new capabilities for a company and sustaining complex
   systems. At Stratfor, the focus must also be on sustaining basic systems
   like phones, email, configuring and fixing laptops and cell phones and so
   on-the basic tools that make our work possible and which are a particular
   challenge in a global company operating 24-7.  That gives our IT
   department a different shape and tempo than exists in other companies.
   With this class of ADPs, 24-7 will become very real.  IT is under pressure
   to maintain its focus on improving the web site and corporate systems but
   has a special and intense mission of supporting a growing, global company
   at the ground level, and the pressure is never going to be greater than
   now with all the new people coming on board in all departments. Creating
   an IT department that fits our peculiar needs will be Frank's challenge.

    

   I want to also point to two departments that are performing extremely
   well.  Customer Service at Stratfor is among the best in the business.  We
   daily get emails praising their work. John Gibbons has done an amazing job
   keeping this going.  More subscribers mean more customer service of
   course.

    

   Also to be mentioned is he on-line marketing team who has just done
   something very impressive. There is usually a slump in subscriptions after
   a Red Alert, and there was one, but in a matter of weeks they pitched in
   and turned it around with some strange and wonderful campaigns.  They have
   broken their forecast in spite of a pretty quiet world.  Its amazing the
   kind of ads that work!

    

   Let's turn to marketing and sales and the future.  Our readership is now
   about 5 percent of the Economist when we exclude corporate (not sure why
   we exclude corporate but that's what we do).  That means that we have
   probably saturated a good part of the early adopters market-the early
   adopters who love us and have built us-and put up with our weaknesses.
   It's kind of like people who supported Apple in its dark days, putting up
   with promising but not yet mature computers.  If you haven't read,
   \"Crossing the Chasm,\" a rare business book that is actually helpful,
   please take a look at it.  It will explain much of what we are trying to
   achieve in marketing.

    

   We have no choice but to grow.  If we stay this size someone larger, with
   deep pockets will notice the market we have created and come in after us. 
   We won't be able to compete.  The only protection is market share, to be
   so dominant a force in the market that no one challenges us and our own
   deep pockets.  For this we must grow revenue and that means readership. 
   The place we must grow is in the mainstream.  I don't mean by mainstream
   CNN. I mean readers who are interested in what we have, but aren't
   fanatics, groupies and wannabes.  These people have higher standards in
   production values, and less forgiveness for mistakes. They don't buy the
   mystique.  They buy the publication. That's where most of our customers
   are and where we have to go.

    

   Obviously this is one of the reasons we need more people.  It is also the
   reason we must deliver in new ways.  Grant Perry and his team are looking
   at ways to create a unique, Stratfor video culture. I see this myself as
   consisting of much longer and serious conversations among analysts
   moderated by an anchor, documentaries, briefings. Perhaps our Sitreps
   should all be delivered via video and audio (there is I think huge demand
   for audio products in cars, or so many people tell me).  All of this will
   evolve in unexpected directions under Grant, Colin, Brian, Andrew and
   others who will join them. This is part of our own evolution into the
   mainstream, on our own terms, with our own voice. What you see above, by
   the way, are simply my own ideas, not fully thought out.  Whatever Grant
   and his team produce will be uniquely Stratfor.

    

   Other than that we shall see.  What markets we will enter, and how we
   enter them is not yet known. We do know that the current Stratfor product,
   however enhanced, will be our only offering.  We will not be developing
   new products for markets. 

    

   We have hired a consultant, Mark Stacey, who will guide this process.  We
   will also be bringing in a consulting firm to do survey research and
   interviews to teach us more about our current readers, readers who won't
   buy us, and readers who would buy us if they had heard of us.  Our choice
   was between hiring staff to give us a plan or hiring consultants to give
   us a plan and then hiring permanent staff to execute it.  The latter is
   the safest-we avoid a staff without the skill to do what we need whom
   instead craft a plan to do what they already know.  In addition to this
   initiative, we are participating in the University of Texas Business
   School program where a team of graduate students will essentially parallel
   the work of our outside consultants, giving us a double check on the
   data. 

    

   The goal here is to have a marketing and sales plan in place for execution
   on January 1.  From where I sit, the biggest challenge we have is that too
   many people have never heard of us.  At a meeting I can encounter someone
   who has subscribed for years and next to him is a person in the same
   industry that has never heard of us.  It is difficult selling to people
   who have never heard of us.  So our challenge-before trying to sell to
   them-is to increase awareness of who we are.  This is called branding and
   it's different from selling.  It is the precursor.  We will start with
   branding in January. That means there will be marketing people around
   asking many questions in the coming months, frequently the same ones.
   Please work with all of them.  In the end, we will have a plan with a high
   likelihood of success.

    

   Parallel to all of this, the executives (without Don, Steve Feldhaus or
   myself-the board members) are going through a planning process of their
   own, coordinated by Frank Ginac.  Not being on it (and not wanting to be
   informed of what is going on as there should be yet another set of eyes on
   things other than mine) I can't tell you what they are doing.  However,
   the deal we have on this is that as CEO, I will proceed with implementing
   my own plans that I've outlined here, and will consider their proposals
   when I see them. If the decision point is past when they make their
   recommendation on a subject, the recommendation will not be considered. 
   If they come in with recommendations before decision points, their
   recommendations will be taken very seriously.  This allows the company to
   move forward and an alternative planning model to be brought on line when
   it is ready.

    

   The company has become too large and complex for any one person to know
   what is going on.  I am moving (with difficulty) from the role of an early
   entrepreneur, knowing everything going on and getting involved in it, to
   the CEO of a company at the inflexion point.   The inflexion point is the
   point all companies dream of and few achieve-when they start really taking
   off.  This is a great point and a dangerous one.  Unless the company
   changes the way it does things, inflexion aborts.  I am trying to change
   what I do.

    

   There are some things that have to remain my responsibility.  Building
   Intelligence and publishing and particularly training new staff are things
   that I should oversee.  Building the intelligence capabilities of the
   company along with Meredith is also my responsibility.  Creating new
   models to support Stratcap and helping to train Stratcap in the
   capabilities of Stratfor is mine. Overseeing our training of the Marine
   Corps is something I want to do.  Kendra will be my deputy for this, but
   this leaves a large load on me.

    

   Along with this, for better or worse, I am the public face of Stratfor. 
   My speeches and travels build the brand, create intelligence
   opportunities, and give me a clearer vision of how the world works.  I
   will be doing a lot of traveling to do these things, and I will combine
   them with the Geopolitical Journeys concept that seems to have hit a
   nerve.  During my travels I will be doing articles, videos and writing a
   book based on those journeys, on the world's borderlands.  Between that
   and making contacts for Stratfor and StratCap, I will be busy.

    

   Along with that load is going to be setting the broad direction of the
   company.  Through long and sometimes painful experience I have learned
   that ultimate responsibility can be delegated but not abandoned.  It's an
   old military principle that applies here. I have a vision for Stratfor and
   while I will delegate, I will not turn over responsibility because I
   can't.

    

   That means that we will need an evolving management structure.  I've asked
   Don who is formally President of Stratfor to join Darryl in both the day
   to day management of the company and in what we still call \"the business
   side.\"  One day we will simply be one company, but right now we are still
   two sides of one company.  Don and Darryl will now manage that side,
   implementing our plans there.  I will not disappear, but become
   intermittent on daily management but deeply focused on intelligence.

    

   One of the other things I must do is prepare a succession plan.  In some
   parts that are well developed, I already have that plan.  In other parts,
   we have to build an organization to have a succession plan.  But it is my
   intention that Stratfor survive me (no, I'm not feeling poorly and can
   still kick your ass).  I want to build this into the world's finest
   intelligence service, private and free to speak its mind.  I see this as
   the most lasting contribution I can make, and I am serious about making
   sure Stratfor goes on.

    

   We are all at the inflexion point where the level of effort temporarily
   soars until new resources are brought on line.  They couldn't have been
   staged in earlier because there weren't resources available.  But now they
   can't wait, because the moment will pass and perhaps never return.  For
   everything there is a \"now.\"  This is now.

    

   I ask only one specific thing of all of you. If you don't understanding
   anything here; if you want to learn more; if something worries you and
   your boss can't clear it up, come directly to me. I will be available
   until the last week of September when I go with others to Turkey.  Please,
   please, please, do not engage in a round of paranoia or speculation based
   on lack of data.  Just set a time to see me and let's discuss it. 
   StratFantasy (a new term) is I really believe the greatest danger to
   success that we have face.

    

   This is a long review, but many have said they'd like to know where we are
   and what we are doing.  This is about as comprehensive as I can get. There
   will be more such reports.  There are no short versions about where we are
   and what we are doing.

    

    

   OH YES-THIS IS FOR INTERNAL STRATFOR USE ONLY. DO NOT SHARE THIS DOCUMENT
   OR DISCUSS IT OUTSIDE OF STRATFOR.

    

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   STRATFOR

   221 West 6th Street

   Suite 400

   Austin, Texas 78701

    

   Phone: 512-744-4319

   Fax: 512-744-4334

    
","2011-09-06 22:59:42",1,"2012-02-29 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/955839_re-labor-day-review-of-where-we-are-.html","","","copeland@stratfor.com",""
956994,"Re: Cat3 for comment - Argentina/China - An intensifying trade spat
","   not as good as China when you compare demand, also have to look at price
   competitiveness
   On May 19, 2010, at 11:13 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

     This looks good.  My only thought is Argentina is playing a dangerous
     game that could backfire at negotiations.  China has alternative for soy
     imports.  Argentina doesn't seem to have that many alternatives for
     Chinese exports, or do they?

     Reva Bhalla wrote:

       hah, wow. i got my election dates completely mixed up. thanks for
       comments. will incorporate
       On May 19, 2010, at 11:04 AM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

         Reva Bhalla wrote:

           In a move that is sure to escalate Argentina's ongoing trade spat
           with China, Argentina's Ministry of Tourism and Industry announced
           May 19 that it has imposed new anti-dumping measures on Chinese
           and Indonesian textiles. The new measures impose a 14.28 percent
           duty on Chinese polyester yarn and a 7.52 percent duty on
           Indonesian polyester yarn. In the midst of the global economic
           crisis in 2009, Argentina imposed 18 anti-dumping measures on
           Chinese goods, ranging from steel to pipes to textiles, as Buenos
           Aires watched its balance of trade surplus gradually shrink under
           economic pressures at home and abroad (Argentina reported a trade
           deficit with China of $600 million in the first two months of
           2010.)

           Beijing's retaliation strategy quickly honed in on Argentina's
           soybean product exports to China. On April 1, China issued a
           warning to importers of Argentine soybean oil, claiming that
           Argentina's soybean oil contained unacceptably high traces of
           solvents. Shortly thereafter, China transferred the right to issue
           permits for soy imports to the Ministry of Commerce, where central
           government authorities stopped issuing permits to import Argentine
           soybean oil. While Argentina reportedly supplied China with 77
           percent of its soybean oil in 2009, Argentina's overall market
           share of Chinese soybean imports has fallen from 33 percent in
           2007/08 to 15 percent in 2008/09 due to severe drought conditions
           and the government's ongoing battle with local farmers over the
           state's populist-driven price controls and export tariffs on
           Grains (yes they tax other food products but the big protests were
           related to grains) food products.

           Chinese soybean demand is meanwhile on a steady rise, and the
           Chinese government has been encouraging Chinese firms to search
           for alternative sources of soybean products. Those alternative
           sources are mainly Brazil and  the United States, who already
           export large volumes of soybean to China and have the capacity to
           expand that trade. China is also looking to move up the value
           chain in soybean production and reduce imports of soybean oil by
           expanding its domestic crushing capacity, an endeavor in which US
           firms ADM, Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus are heavily invested.
           STRATFOR sources have indicated that the Chinese ban on Argentine
           soybean oil was in part intended to apply pressure on Buenos Aires
           to repeal its anti-dumping measures on Chinese goods, but
           Argentina instead appears to be trying to bolster its own
           bargaining position by imposing fresh duties on Chinese goods
           before an Argentine trade delegation heads to Beijing May 31-June
           1 to try and work these issues out.

           Argentina is likely to struggle in finding alternatives to offset
           the loss in soybean trade with China. Argentine farmers, already
           under heavy financial duress  have shifted to exportable crops
           like soybeans that are not consumed in Argentina (and thus not
           subject to state price controls) in an attempt to turn a profit . 
           Through hefty export taxes, the government has been trying to
           force farmers into producing more essential foods, like wheat,
           that can be produced and consumed at home, but such price-capped
           crops are not profitable for farmers to sell at home. may want to
           state this sentence first, which helps explain the farmers' shift
           to soy (and then in turn the govts reaction to try and get other
           grains produced) At the same time, soybean farmers are also seeing
           their market share reduced abroad due to the state's spats with
           major buyers like China. Since Argentina is currently in harvest
           season, farmers have laid off protests for now in hopes of a more
           profitable export season beginning in June, but the state's
           reprieve from farmer protests could be short-lived may want to
           explain why - farmers can easily return to protests and or decide
           to temporarily not sell/store their grain if govt controls prevent
           them from getting a profit. While Argentina could look to
           alternative soybean importers in the EU, Japan, Mexico and other
           countries to help compensate for a decline in Chinese trade,
           Argentine farmers would be doing so on the spot market, where they
           already face immense trouble in accessing credit due to
           Argentina's prolonged debt crisis and where the price of Argentine
           grains would be less competitive. The continued deterioration of
           the agricultural sector, exacerbated by trade spats like the one
           playing out currently between Beijing and Buenos Aires, is likely
           to be a significant contributor to social unrest in the five-month
           build -up to the Oct. 2011 presidential elections. um, Oct 2011 is
           17 months off.  but can still talk about problems she's facing
           politically and an opposition congress.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-05-19 18:23:39",1,"2012-03-05 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/956994_re-cat3-for-comment-argentina-china-an-intensifying-trade.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
958029,"INSIGHTS - RUSSIA - Details on the privatizations (multiple sources)
","   LG: I have been working on this with a slew of sources for months (some of
   it since last year).  The reason it took so long is because I had to cross
   check EVERY piece of intel against 3+ other sources because the amount of
   disinformation was astonishing. Because of this, it is hard to send out
   info separately.

   I have not included all the dirt on each company during such a
   privatization because it is not yet translated, but I'll send all that out
   in the interactive request Sunday.

   CODES & DESCRIPTIONS:
   RU131 a** Kremlin thinktanker on econ & pol
   RU171 a** Russian diplomat
   RU157 a** Russian state thinktanker
   RU138 a** Russian econ analyst
   RU134 a** Kremlin economist
   RU102 a** Deputy in ProsGen
   RU131 a** Kremlin policy analyst
   RU108 a** Kremlin strategist
   RU114 a** Aton Anlayst

   The privatizations are about to open soon with the sale of minority shares
   in a dozen companies. The plan is called the a**New Privatization
   Initiativea** and was created in 2009 (LG: which is when Stratfor first
   heard about ita**see intel from Dec 2009). The privatizations are in 2
   categories called a**companiesa** and a**asset companiesa** with the
   former privatization lasting through 2012 and the latter through 2014.

   The company privatizations (not the assets) are expected to earn the
   Russian government an estimated $29 billion. The company privatizations
   are the first list below. The assetsa**which will be made up of 5,000
   small companies mostly made up of firms and assets picked up during the
   financial crisisa** are expected to earn another $20 billion. The largest
   of these a**asseta** companies are also listed below.  So total, the
   government has the potential to earn is $50 billion by end of 2014

   The one thing that the government is still waiting on is the estimations
   if the privatizations can go forward now or wait until the market is ready
   to handle them. But there are already quite a few large investors ready to
   take on this enormous project.

   The government is expected to use the money to eliminate the countrya**s
   budget deficit by 2014 and give it extra stabilization cash all before the
   elections (both 2011 & 2012). This is key because the confidence in the
   government may be high, but everything needs to be perfect and foolproof
   before the elections. Both Kudrin and the economic ministry are working
   together on the economic side of this. The new Kremlin budget is to rely
   upon internal borrowings and income from the privatization of state
   companies. Russia will rely less on external markets.

   Theoretically the shares are up for grabs from both foreign and domestic
   investors.
   It is publicly unclear how the process will take place, though privately
   we all know it will be via Kremlin a**mutual agreementsa** between the
   bidding companies and the Kremlin. Then the decision will be put through
   parliament a** though this is a non-issue.

   On June 15, 2010, a series of amendments came into effect on the laws
   a**On Privatization of State and Municipal Propertya** (aka, Privatization
   Amendments). The amendments give the Kremlin the ability to a**engage
   foreign and domestic entities to arrange and manage the privatization
   processa** on behalf of the Russian firms. Before the Kremlin had to
   influence the deals unless they owned all the pieces being privatized, now
   they can arrange it all no matter if the actual property belongs to
   certain governmental agencies or ministries, etc.

   Many sources did slyly say that should the government decide to
   nationalize in the future it can, but they cana**t say that right now or
   it would scare investors away ;).

   The privatization scheme is a Kudrin plan that has Medvedev-Putina**s
   blessing. Kudrina**s plan is for a**balancea** (LG: which wea**ve
   discussed a million times). Kudrin knows that he cana**t really fully
   privatize these companies, but can still earn enormous cash for small
   pieces of them. It is the balance between the 90s chaos and the 2003-7
   siloviki nationalizations.

   But many in the Kremlin and these companies are against the move. For
   example, Transneft CEO Tokarev (KGB in Dresden with Putin) is against the
   privatization.

   Once these privatizations are done, Kudrin would like to retire. He is
   exhausted by the entire ordeal, but has to see it through because he is
   one of the only men both Putin and Medvedev trust to tackle such a
   project. Also, he knows his luck is almost up with the Sechin clan, who
   would have had him killed by now if he werena**t personally protected by
   the tandem. Instead Sechina**s crew settled for Kudrina**s team instead.

   The move to first put VTB on the market was a plan pushed by Gref
   (Sberbanka**s chairman). There will be 2 tranches of shares put out of
   VTBa**s. The first tranche will be 10 percent and the second will be for
   25 percent. The top company in the running is US investment fund Texas
   Pacific Group. They have already traveled to Russia and spoken with First
   Deputy Premier Shuvalov about this. The first tranche will sell for $3
   billion a** with VTB valued at $30 billion. Another company interested in
   the next tranche is Merill Lynch.

   **any company planning to sell more than ~10% will do it in multiple
   tranches in order to see if the first part will be successful & give the
   government time to reconsider good or bad.

   **the more strategic companies can not have state shares below 75%

   Company                Government Stake            Stake for Sale       
       Status
   Rosneft                           75.16%                           
   24.16%                Stake size under \"review\"
   Transneft                        78.10%                         3-27.1%   
                   Stake size under \"review\"
   Sovkomflot                    100%                                25%   
   VTB Bank                    85.50%                            24.50%   
   Rosselxozbank                100%                                49%   
   Russian Railways            100%                            34.99%       
               via subsidiary
   Federal Grid Company    79.11%                        28.11%           
           Stake size under \"review\"
   RusHydro                        60.38%                        9.38%   
   United Grain Company    100%                         10- 25%   
   Rosagroleasing                99.90%                         10-24%   
   Rosspirtprom                    100%                          10-25%    
   Sberbank                        60.30%                            9.30%   

   A TASTE OF THE ASSETS FOR SALE a** (these alone are $4b)
   Novorossiisk Seaport a** 20%
   Vanino Seaport a** 55%
   Yenisei River Shipping Company a** 25.5%
   Sakhalin Sea Shipping Company a** 25.5%
   Murmansk Seaport a** 34%
   SG-Trans Moscow a** 100%
   Tuapse Seaport a** 25%
   Volga River Shipping 25.5%
   Murmansk Sea Shipping Company a** 25.5%
   Northwestern Sea Shipping (St. Petes) a** 25.5%
   Koltsova Airport (Ekatrinburg) a** 34.5%
   Tomachevo Airport (Novosibirsk) a** 51%

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-10-08 22:08:52",1,"2012-02-29 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/958029_insights-russia-details-on-the-privatizations-multiple.html","reginald.thompson@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
959180,"INSIGHT - MOLDOVA - Part 3 - Germany, US, Romania, Ukraine
","   SOURCE: MD101
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Washington & Chisinau
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Head of Moldovan Lobby in Washington, but lives
   partially in Chisinau & super close to most politicians
   PUBLICATION: yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   GERMANY

   As far as Germany, Germans have a**historica** ties to having former
   villages and pockets of former population in Moldova. Russia kicked them
   out, so there is a strange resentment between Germany and Russia over
   Moldova.

   But this isna**t a red-line.

   Instead, it is more about how the Moldova solidification will ripple
   through Central Europe. But Germany can contain Russiaa**s move if it gets
   an answer on Transdniestria. This will allow Germany to say to Europe
   a**see, if we work with Russia, then we can accept your ruling there.
   Germanya**s representative on the issue a** Patricia Flor a** told Russia
   that if Moscow could get a resolution between Transdniestria and Moldova
   started then Germany would be more open to Russia controlling the country.
   Germany also said that if Russia could get a resolution started then the
   rest of the EU would see it as a positive step in security assurances to
   Europe.

   UKRAINE, ROMANIA & US

   Ukraine is on board with whatever Russia wants on the Moldova issue,
   moreover it will help Russia with whatever is needed to help consolidate
   the country.

   Romania is simply terrible at influencing the country. Sure it wants to
   hold Moldova from Russia and to its own. But Romania has not done any
   grassroots moves. The US as asked Romania to set up NGOs, media, etca*|.
   it hasna**t. Romania tried after the last election to set up a Moldova
   Fund to invest in the countrya**but it has only given 100 million euros
   thus far a** which is nothing.

   The US has NO ONE interested in the country. Literally, the lobby in
   Washington has no ties in government a** especially Congress, Senate, NSC,
   etc. The only thing is a Moldova desk at State a** which means nothing.
   There is even no USAID to Moldova. Sure MMC gives some money to Moldova,
   but only $262 million.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-10-01 04:10:53",1,"2012-03-05 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/959180_insight-moldova-part-3-germany-us-romania-ukraine-.html","chris.farnham@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
960134,"RE: ANALYSIS PROPOSAL - 2 - Intelligence on Luzhkov's replacement. 
","   Sounds good. Let's keep it tight.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Lauren Goodrich
   Sent: Monday, October 11, 2010 2:57 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: ANALYSIS PROPOSAL - 2 - Intelligence on Luzhkov's replacement.

    

   Over the weekend, Russia's ruling party, United Russia submitted a list of
   candidates to President Dmitri Medvedev to fill the position of Mayor of
   Moscow. Our intelligence from Moscow has said that the most likely choice
   to replace Luzhkov will be Deputy Premier Sergei Sobyanin. Of course,
   Russia is fickle with who finally gets the important governmental spots.
   But intelligence has told Stratfor that Sobyanin was a choice by Putin to
   repay Medvedev for finally sacking Luzhkov. He is a great compromise and
   works well with all power circles in the country. He also has a firm hand
   and creative background to start tackling the tough reforms that Moscow
   needs.

   450 words
   can be out now & can run whenever. 

   INTELLIGENCE:

   CODE: RU102
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Prosecutor General's office
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Deputy ProsGen
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   HANDLER: Lauren

   Thus far, Sobyanin has the post. He is Putin's boy and everyone knows it.
   But he is on very friendly terms with Medvedev. Medvedev won major points
   with Putin by finally and easily removing Luzhkov. Now Putin has replied
   by putting in one of his loyalists, who is very responsive to Medvedev and
   his group. Sobyanin is also a good choice - he has a strong hand over
   cutting the bullshit in the capital.

   CODE: RU102
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Prosecutor General's office
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Deputy ProsGen
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   HANDLER: Lauren

   Luzhkov's ousting was never about Luzhkov - as we all know - it was about
   Baturina and her mob ties. Ousting Luzhkov was the first step. Now it is
   her turn. Criminal investigations from our office into Baturina over her
   company Inteko, its finances, her finances and the OC ties to it are all
   underway. This is going to be a nasty fight.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-10-11 21:07:29",1,"2012-02-29 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/960134_re-analysis-proposal-2-intelligence-on-luzhkov-s-replacement.html","scott.stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
960565,"RE: LA Terror Plot (not for pub - pls do not forward)  
","   The surveillance detection was identified by the TrapWire surveillance
   system.    I'm getting the details on the recons and m.o.   The matter is
   very dicey.  Pls don't pass this around.  Thanks  

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, September 22, 2010 8:33 PM
   To: secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: LA Terror Plot (not for pub - pls do not forward)
   According to a very good source responsible for domestic surveillance
   operations, an extremely serious al Qaeda terror plot has been uncovered
   targeting a financial institution, an entertainment center and a
   government office bldg in Los Angeles.  The same terrorist surveillance
   team conducted pre-operational surveillance of all three sites.   The
   group is currently under watch....
    
   Note -- The NSC has refused disclosure due to the election.  Gotta love
   it.  I'll know more tomorrow. 

   No virus found in this incoming message.
   Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
   Version: 9.0.851 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3152 - Release Date: 09/22/10
   01:34:00
","2010-09-23 23:54:36",1,"2012-07-24 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/960565_re-la-terror-plot-not-for-pub-pls-do-not-forward-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
962665,"INSIGHT - IRAN/SYRIA - Some details on IRGC and HZ presence in
 Syria - ME1*
","   SOURCE: sub-source via ME1
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Source 1 is a HZ student activist; Source 2 is a HZ
   media source; both via ME1
   PUBLICATION: Yes - can sitrep
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: C
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: C
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
   can post as STRATFOR sources linked to Hezbollah claim .....  include that
   info has not been verified.

   The first source says 42 IRGC members and 27 HZ fighters were killed in
   Syria during July.  Syrian cargo plane transported the dead Iranians to
   Tehran and several vans transported dead HZ men to Lebanon. He says there
   are in Syria about 3,000 IRGC men and 2,000 HZ fighters, in addition to
   300 Amal Movement men and 200 SNSP militiamen. The IRGC men are leading
   the pro-regime armed gangs. Syrian soldiers who refuse to open fire on
   protesters are killed by the Iranians and pro-Syrian Lebanese allies. The
   Iranians and Lebanese usually stand behind Syrian troops and  kill Syrian
   soldiers immediately if they refuse to open fire. The 17 Syrian troops
   dumped in the Orontes River in Hama were killed by HZ men.  HZ fighters
   are unmistakable because they are bearded and the authorities in Damascus
   say they are salafis. The second source has unconditionally verified the
   claims of the first source
","2011-08-16 19:11:43",1,"2012-03-08 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/962665_insight-iran-syria-some-details-on-irgc-and-hz-presence-in.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","","watchofficer@stratfor.com",""
963091,"INSIGHT - MOLDOVA - the German-Russian talks on Transdniestria
	viewed in Moldova
","   SOURCE: think tank analyst, close to the current Moldovan ambassador to
   the US
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Source
   PUBLICATION: for background
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: 1/2
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1/2 (it's more his analysis on the matter plus some info
   on EU/Germany knowledge)
   DISTRIBUTION: eurasia, analysts
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Antonia

   Let me know if anything is not understandable - translated from a Romanian
   that was much metaphorical.

   On the EU(Germany)-Russia security cooperation - the Moldovans think in
   geographic terms that are very limited; only few persons that have read a
   bit more on history and geography realizes that Moldova is located in the
   'error margin' of the discussions between Russia and Germany. The problem
   that I'm seeing is not related to the 2 partners but to the fact that the
   US is out of the equation, out of the security discussions in the region
   and particularly out of the discussions on Transnistria. This can't be
   advantageous for Moldova: it is better to have on your side the US and the
   EU and not only the EU. The third party presence in the negotiation
   diminishes the possibility to conclude on something that is against the
   Moldovan interest. In the same time, at a larger scale, the substitution
   or the diminishing in importance of the NATO Council-Russia 'partnership'
   and the fact that more parties are involved in the negotiation process on
   the matter makes it less probable that we see any surprises in the future.
   On the other side, the Russians are saying that Russia must not be
   conditioned on anything before signing the pact on the new security
   architecture on Europe.
   The most important problem for Moldova - in case all the discussions go
   further at the operational level - is the fact that we're not prepared for
   the next step. The Moldovan MFA is not discussing with the president, with
   the parliament, etc. In the same time, I've noticed that the people in
   Bruxelles don't know about the negotiations content between Germany and
   Russia, the EU has given its approval in a 'post factum' manner while the
   Germans don't want to talk about it even if they are the only ones knowing
   anything.

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-10-14 10:17:25",1,"2012-03-05 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/963091_insight-moldova-the-german-russian-talks-on-transdniestria.html","chris.farnham@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
964991,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
","   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marc Lanthemann\" <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-14 20:55:23",1,"2012-02-28 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/964991_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
966063,"INSIGHT - Libya - Info about Opposition Leadership - LY0700
","   Source Code: LY700
   PUBLICATION: No, for background only
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Govt security contractor on US Govt assignment in
   Libya
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: Still testing
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   Follow up from information earlier today --

   Just to put a bow on this,

    

   1.  Abdel-Hakim Belhaj (45 yrs old and pictured in photo below talking on
   mobile), is the new head of the newly created Tripoli Military Council
   (new as of last week of August), with control of some 8,000 troops, the
   biggest fighting force in Libya.

    

   2.  Belhaj has the support of the leader of the rebels' National
   Transitional Council, Mustafa Abdul-Jalil.

    

   3.  Belhaj is former leader of an Islamic militant group (1996 he was
   leader of the now-dissolved Libyan Islamic Fighting Group).

    

   a.    Some branches have had connections with al-Qaida in Sudan,
   Afghanistan or Pakistan. He says in 2004 he was picked up and tortured by
   the agency at a black site prison in Thailand.

    

   4.  Belhaj was sent to Libya's Abu Salim prison, where Gadhafi's regime
   held many political prisoners.

    

   a.       Libyan government freed Belhaj and 33 other members of the
   Islamic Fighting Group in March 2010. Belhaj agreed to renounce violence
   as part of an initiative by Gadhafi's son Seif al-Islam, who at the time
   was considered a reformist voice.

    

   IMPORTANT CONNECTION:

    

   1.           The man that I made a contact with (Mehdi al-Harati,
   commander of the Tripoli Revolutionary Brigade) was appointed as the
   deputy commander of the Tripoli Military Council. He is a strong
   confederate of Belhaj and I've tried to get someone in the current
   administration to consider that he could be used to get close to /
   establish relationship with Belhaj and perhaps upwards thru to Abdul-Jalil
   (...keep your enemies closer). Hard to get folks to listen / think.
","2011-09-14 20:34:01",1,"2012-03-19 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/966063_insight-libya-info-about-opposition-leadership-ly0700-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","zucha@stratfor.com,fred.burton@stratfor.com,watchofficer@stratfor.com",""
966303,"INSIGHT - CHINA - RIO ESPIONAGE - CN65 [Analytical & Intelligence
	Comments] RE: Australia,	China: Accusations of Espionage
","So my Aussie intelligence source that I was so worried about because he 
stayed in China incommunicado for over a week decides to get in touch 
with me via STRATFOR!  Ha.  Well anyways, I am resending this as insight 
in case not everyone picks this up.  This is very important and wish 
like hell we woulda got it this morning before I wrote up the CSM.  I 
guess we can always update next week or do a stand-alone piece - thoughts?


SOURCE: CN65
ATTRIBUTION: Former Australian State Senator
SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Source is well-connected politically, militarily 
and economically.  He has become a
private businessman helping foreign companies with M&As
PUBLICATION: Yes
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
SPECIAL HANDLING: None


>
> Hey Jen,
>
> Just back in Australia, but still only in Perth.  Won't get back to
> Brisbane until 1000 GMT on 10th July.  Happy to take a call after 
> that. You may have missed a related issue on this story.
>
> The day in arrived in China the media announced proposed changes to the
> laws on state secrets.  These include increasing the range of things 
> which
> could constitute revealing or stealing \"state secrets\".  Of course 
> stealing
> them, or deliberately revealing them, can attract a death sentence.  The
> exact details are contained in clippings, which are in my checked 
> luggage. I will get them once I get home.
>
> In my talks, the Chinese officials were turning themselves inside out 
> over
> Chinalco, and the line given in the official media curiously blamed the
> Opposition.  The reason for this is simply that the Government and Rio
> don't want to admit that they got it seriously wrong.  You recall my
> comment on the clipping you showed me?  The problem is that they tried to
> push their bargaining position too hard instead of revising the deal to
> make it more immediately palatable.
>
> Interestingly, the arrests come not just during the protracted iron ore
> negotiations, but on the very weekend that Rio successfully concluded its
> rights issue to replace most of the cash they were to get from 
> Chinalco.  I
> think these guys were really pissed off by that, and wanted to do 
> something
> to lash out at Rio.  Also, they may have figured that arresting these 
> guys
> would lead to a capitulation by Rio at the negotiating table.
>
> Rudd is copping a flogging for failing to say anything at all on the
> matter, even though the Australian has been in the bag for four days.  
> You
> need to see Greg Sheridan's article in the Australian today.  Also, you
> have a fan at the Australian Fin Review, as Stratfor commentary made up
> half the back page in the Chanticleer column there.
>
> I got out of China a week late, and was very worried for myself for a
> week, but all turned out okay.
>
> Hope all is well at your end.
>
> Bill
>
>
> Source: 
> http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090708_australia_china_accusations_espionage 
>
","2009-07-10 05:05:33",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/966303_insight-china-rio-espionage-cn65-analytical-and-intelligence.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
967715,"INSIGHT - MOLDOVA - part 1 - Internal fight & Russia's hand
","   SOURCE: MD101
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Washington & Chisinau
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Head of Moldovan Lobby in Washington, but lives
   partially in Chisinau & super close to most politicians
   PUBLICATION: yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   INTERNAL FIGHT & RUSSIAa**S HAND

   First off, Russian influence has never left Moldova. Any politician (save
   those who have no real power) never are serious when they say that they
   are willing to go towards the West.

   The coalition could have been popular in the country if they had one more
   year. The coalition started a series of reforms this past year, but they
   wona**t start taking affect until another year from now. But the people
   dona**t care. They want something tangible now.

   So two things happened in the coalition that has broken it apart. First PM
   Filat struck out on his own and began this huge push across the country to
   raise pensions. Sure, this is a good move in the country, but he did it as
   he and his partya**s plan a** not the coalitiona**s. This was the nail in
   the coffin for the so-called pro-European coalition. By the way, this
   coalition was never really pro-European since both Filat and Lupu work
   with the Russians constantly.

   Then Lupu began forming its formal ties back with Russia. Lupu held out in
   the coalition much longer than anyone expected. The problem was that the
   coalition never gave Lupua**s PDM anything a** meaning any position in the
   government. What was the point of Lupua**s PDM staying in the coalition?

   Now the question is who will work with the Communistsa**since they will
   most likely gain 40% of the vote. On a side note, the Communists are
   debating whether their candidate will be Grechanaya or Stratan.

   Lupu use to be Voronina**s right hand in the Communists. Not because he
   actually believes in the Communist Party, but it was an opportunity for
   him to launch himself in the country. Lupu is an opportunist. When he left
   to start his own party, Voronin lost all respect for Lupu and the
   Communists branded him a traitor. But Lupu has solidified the power of his
   party by expanding his ties with Russia a** hence the tie with ER.

   The next possibility is Filat.

   Russia has asked Voronin to throw his weight either behind Lupu or to
   build a coalition with Filat. Voronin refuses to side with Lupu, so the
   most likely outcome is a coalition with Filat.

   Either way though, Russia will have a victory in ousting the Romanian camp
   a** meaning Ghimpua**s group. He is the only really non-Russia friendly
   force. He is Romanian President Basescua**s lapdog. But Ghimpu doesna**t
   have really any support, especially as he tried to blatently tried to
   rally support for the pro-Romanian movement in the country.

   But no matter what, this election is more about solidifying publicly the
   Russian presence in the country, more than Russia a**re-gaininga** the
   country. Russiaa**s presence never left. It is everywhere a** the media,
   the parties, in the countryside, etc.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-10-01 04:09:55",1,"2012-03-05 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/967715_insight-moldova-part-1-internal-fight-and-russia-s-hand-.html","chris.farnham@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
968422,"Re: Der Spiegel on Iraq War Logs
","   So what is new about that? Abu-G has already been detailed. Besides, what
   is US going to do about Iraqi on Iraqi? 

   On Oct 22, 2010, at 5:52 PM, Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com> wrote:

     Humanitarian-wise the Iraqi prisoner abuse will be one of the big
     issues.  Al-J points out FRAGO 242 and FRAGO 039, fragmentary orders
     that require not reporting or reporting prisoner abuse by Iraqi security
     forces. The above sample from the documents mentions them. 

DET ABUSE SUMMARY

     Date
     May 16 2005, 1115
     Type/Category
     Other/Other
     Location
     Al-Musayab, Babylon (MND-C)
     Coordinates
     32.9061584473, 44.1552238464,
     Summary: This is the first mention of fragmentary order (FRAGO) 242,
     which prohibits US forces from conducting any more than a preliminary
     investigation of alleged detainee abuse, unless coalition forces are
     allegedly involved. (The order can be overridden by higher headquarters,
     but there is little evidence that it was in more than a handful of
     cases.)
     NO COALITION FORCES WERE AWARE OR INVOLVED IN THE ABUSE. IRAQI ON IRAQI
     DETAINEE ABUSE SUMMARY 3 18 MAY 2005

     1. IRAQI ON IRAQI (NO US FORCES PERSONNEL WERE INVOLVED) NOTE: MNCI
     FRAGO 039 DTD 29 APRIL 2005 HAS MODIFIED FRAGO 242 AND NOW REQUIRES
     REPORTS OF IRAQI ON IRAQI ABUSE BE REPORTED THROUGH OPERATIONAL
     CHANNELS. INCIDENTS OF DETAINEE ABUSE COMMITTED BY IRAQI FORCES FALL
     WITH MNF-IS CCIR #8. REPORTING WILL BE MADE USING THE FORMAT ATTACHED TO
     MNCI FRAGO 039. PROVIDED THE INITIAL REPORT CONFIRMS US FORCES WERE NOT
     INVOLVED IN THE DETAINEE ABUSE, NO FURTHER INVESTIGATION WILL BE
     CONDUCTED UNLESS DIRECTED BY HHQ.

     ACTION REQUIRED: INITIAL REPORT FORWARDED TO HHQ. ACTION TAKEN: INITIAL
     REPORTS FOR ALL OF THE INCIDENTS DESCRIBED BELOW ARE ATTACHED AND WILL
     BE FORWARDED TO MNCI.

     A. DESCRIPTION OF INCIDENT INVOLVING DETAINEE #0484: DETAINEE #0484,
     [REDACTED], WAS RECEIVED AT RDF KALSU BY GYSGT QUIROZ AT APPROXIMATELY
     0915, 16 MAY 2005. SND WAS TRANSPORTED TO RDF KALSU BY [REDACTED] OF B
     CO. 1-155 INFANTRY FROM FOB ISKANDARIAYAH. SND WAS BROUGHT TO THE RDF
     KALSU WEARING A SLING ON HIS LEFT ARM. SND WAS MEDICALLY EXAMINED BY HM3
     BELIN WHO FOUND SND HAD HIS LEFT ARM HYPER-EXTENDED BY IRAQI POLICE. NO
     COALITION FORCES WERE INVOLVED IN THE INCIDENT. GYSGT QUIROZ REPORTED
     THE INCIDENT TO 1ST LT VARGAS, OIC, RDF KALSU. SND STATED THAT HE WAS
     CAPTURED BY IRAQI POLICE ON 13 MAY 2005 AND TAKEN TO THE MUSAYYIB POLICE
     STATION WHERE HE WAS BEATEN BY IRAQI POLICE.

     B. DESCRIPTION OF INCIDENT INVOLVING DETAINEE #0487: DETAINEE #0487,
     FASIL ALI KLAB WAS RECEIVED AT RDF KALSU BY GYSGT QUIROZ AT
     APPROXIMATELY 0915, 16 MAY 2005. SND WAS TRANSPORTED TO RDF KALSU BY SFC
     WILLIAMS OF B CO, 1-155 INFANTRY FROM FOB ISKANDARIAYAH. SND WAS BROUGHT
     TO THE RDF KALSU WITH BRUISES TO HIS BUTTOCKS. SND WAS MEDICALLY
     EXAMINED BY H

     On 10/22/10 5:43 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       Al Jazeera first video:
       http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2010/10/20101022202210771944.html
       On 10/22/10 5:40 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         10/22/2010
          
         The WikiLeaks Iraq War Logs
         Greatest Data Leak in US Military History
         http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,724845,00.html

         In the greatest leak in the history of the United States military,
         WikiLeaks plans to publish 391,832 classified documents on the Iraq
         on the Internet. The field reports from soldiers cast a new light on
         the war -- documenting in a unique way how the highly armed American
         military was helpless in the conflict for years. By SPIEGEL Staff

         First there were hundreds of thousands of documents from the
         Afghanistan conflict, and now there are hundreds of thousands from
         the Iraq war. WikiLeaks intends to publish a massive collection of
         internal war logs from the United States military early Saturday
         morning. They include some 391,832 field reports from US soldiers
         from a Pentagon database. Taken together, they represent a kind of
         diary of the Iraq war between 2004 and 2009.

         DER SPIEGEL, the London Guardian and the New York Times have
         analyzed and reviewed the documents together with other media
         sources. As was the case with the around 77,000 Afghanistan war logs
         published by WikiLeaks in July, SPIEGEL has taken every measure
         possible to ensure that lives are not put at risk. This includes
         redacting the names of those individuals who could be targeted for
         revenge or of those places at risk of being targeted for collective
         reprisals. The danger publication of the reports could create for
         informants and soldiers in Iraq is the primary concern of the US
         government, which is currently seeking to take action against
         WikiLeaks.

         \"We deplore WikiLeaks for inducing individuals to break the law,
         leak classified documents,\" the Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff
         Morrell told SPIEGEL (see the box below, \"US Reaction to Iraq War
         Logs,\" for the full statement), \"and then cavalierly share that
         secret information with the world, including our enemies.\"

         US REACTION TO IRAQ WAR LOGS
         Click on the headlines to read the responses to SPIEGEL provided by
         Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell ...
         On the Planned WikiLeaks Publication
         \"We deplore WikiLeaks for inducing individuals to break the law,
         leak classified documents and then cavalierly share that secret
         information with the world, including our enemies. We know terrorist
         organizations have been mining the leaked Afghan documents for
         information to use against us and this Iraq leak is more than four
         times as large. By disclosing such sensitive information, WikiLeaks
         continues to put at risk the lives of our troops, their coalition
         partners and those Iraqis and Afghans working with us. The only
         responsible course of action for WikiLeaks at this point is to
         return the stolen material and expunge it from their websites as
         soon as possible.\"
         On the Episodes Detailed in the Documents
         \"We strongly condemn the unauthorized disclosure of classified
         information and will not comment on these leaked documents other
         than to note that 'significant activities' reports are initial, raw
         observations by tactical units. They are essentially snapshots of
         events, both tragic and mundane, and do not tell the whole story.
         That said, the period covered by these reports has been
         well-chronicled in news stories, books and films and the release of
         these field reports does not bring new understanding to Iraq's
         past.\"

         \"However, it does expose secret information that could make our
         troops even more vulnerable to attack in the future. Just as with
         the leaked Afghan documents, we know our enemies will mine this
         information looking for insights into how we operate, cultivate
         sources, and react in combat situations, even the capability of our
         equipment. This security breach could very well get our troops and
         those they are fighting with killed.\"
         WikiLeaks, the Pentagon argued, continues to put at risk the lives
         of troops, their coalition partners and Iraqis. In addition, Morrell
         added, the reports are \"initial, raw observations by tactical units.
         They are essentially snapshots of events, both tragic and mundane,
         and do not tell the whole story.\" Besides, the Pentagon added, the
         period covered in the reports has already been well-chronicled in
         news stories, books and films.

         A War that Lasted Longer than WWII

         SPIEGEL nevertheless decided to publish the documents because they
         expose additional dimensions to the war. The brief, matter-of-fact
         incident reports offer an unusual perspective on a war that lasted
         longer than World War II.

         They show the everyday aspects of the campaign as US soldiers
         experienced it. The thousands of threat analyses, attack reports and
         arrest records allow a very precise reconstruction of the escalation
         of the sectarian battle between the Shiites and Sunnis, how it
         brutalized Iraqi society and how kidnappings, executions and the
         torture of prisoners became routine practices. The reports also
         provide some evidence that neighboring countries including Syria and
         Iran were involved in the war. SPIEGEL ONLINE will be running a
         series of stories in the coming days shedding additional light on
         aspects of the war, and readers can also browse the complete
         WikiLeaks database in an interactive Iraq map prepared by SPIEGEL
         ONLINE. On Monday, SPIEGEL ONLINE will publish this week's WikiLeaks
         Iraq cover story in English.

         PHOTO GALLERY

             *
             *
             *

         15  Photos
         Photo Gallery: Images of a Bloody War

         The documents included in the WikiLeaks database aren't of the
         highest level of classification -- at most, they are \"secret,\" but
         not \"top secret.\" As such, many of the most sensational events in
         the Iraq war don't make an appearance, including the torture scandal
         at Abu Ghraib. There are other weaknesses, as well -- they are
         one-sided and subjective, unverifiable and, in many cases, were
         produced on the battlefield, making it easier for errors to slip
         through.

         However, they have the cumulative effect of painting a precise
         picture of an asymmetrical war, one in which a superpower equipped
         with state-of-the-art weaponry often stands helpless on the
         battlefield against individual fighting units, as brutal as they are
         nimble. The material shows how the constant state of fear paralyzed
         the world's last remaining superpower. Is the next bomb about to go
         off? Is it around the corner? On the side of the road? Or strapped
         to the body of an insurgent?

         'Bomb Explosion,' 'Under Enemy Fire,' 'Discoveries of Weapons'

         The war logs begin on Jan. 1, 2004, a day on which seven explosions
         were reported between Kirkuk in northern Iraq and Basra in the
         south, and end on Dec. 31, 2009, when three attacks were reported.
         With terms like \"bomb explosion,\" \"under enemy fire\" and
         \"discoveries of weapons,\" the Iraq logs try to make the war fit into
         the rough grid of military terminology. But there is one key
         difference between the Afghanistan war logs and these: The Iraq
         reports are all from a war that had already been officially declared
         as having been won. George W. Bush, the US president and commander
         in chief at the time, declared on May 1, 2003 on the aircraft
         carrier USS Abraham Lincoln that \"major combat operations in Iraq
         have ended.\" The field reports show that his statement proved to be
         untrue for years to come.

         The soldiers' reports sometimes have a very reserved tone -- for
         example, when it comes to the deployments of their fellow soldiers
         who are hunting suspected insurgents, when patrols are ambushed or
         when weapons caches are discovered. They are everyday scenes from a
         war.

         And often the horrors that occurred are hidden in military
         abbreviations. The numbers and letters \"13xAIF KIA,\" for example,
         stand for 13 enemies killed (\"13 anti-Iraqi forces killed in
         action\") -- as happened on July 12, 2007, when US attack helicopters
         became notorious around the world for the \"Collateral Murder\"
         operation in which they fired on innocent Iraqis. The fact that
         something must have gone awry in the mission is clear in the
         classified document because there were also \"2xLN children WIA\" --
         \"3 local national children wounded in action.\"

         But other reports express the extent of the horror of the war more
         clearly. As tensions mount within the Iraqi population starting in
         2004, acts of the greatest cruelty take place. In June 2005, for
         example, the death of six members of a family near Baqouba are
         documented, a typical incident at that time. The killers tied the
         victims' hands behind their back and then cut off their heads,
         laying them next to their corpses on the ground. The nine-year-old
         grandson was forced to die the same way as his grandfather. At
         another point, US soldiers report that a commander with the Shiite
         Mahdi militia killed his wife. She evidently saw him commit an
         \"extra-legal killing\" -- a murder -- and she filmed him doing it on
         a mobile phone.

         The documents show hundreds of thousands of times what can happen to
         a society at war -- how it gradually slips to the point of
         self-destruction and the verge of breakdown. During those years, a
         full-blown civil war between ethnic groups in Iraq was only barely
         prevented.

         INTERACTIVE MAP: THE DEADLY EVENTS OF NOV. 23, 2006
         One Day in Iraq: SPIEGEL ONLINE documents the 70 deadly events of
         Nov. 23, 2006, as they are depicted in the WikiLeaks war logs.
         Murders, executions, attacks -- they show a picture of the brutal
         daily life in a country torn by civil war. Now you can read about a
         day that was just like many others in Iraq -- from the perspective
         of American soldiers. Visit the interactive map ...
         Recently, Bush's successor, Barack Obama, also officially declared
         the end of combat operations. On September 1, Operation Iraqi
         Freedom was replaced by Operation New Dawn. But aside from the
         excessively optimistic terminology, there were no signs of triumph
         to be seen. There were no flag-bedecked aircraft carriers or
         returning veterans being cheered as they marched up Broadway in New
         York.

         President Obama, long an opponent of what he once called a \"dumb
         war,\" pointed out that the war had not only cost many lives, but had
         also come at a high financial cost. \"We spent a trillion dollars at
         war, often financed by borrowing from overseas,\" he said. At the
         very same place where his predecessor had announced the start of the
         war, Obama declared its end in a tone suggesting that a completely
         different, considerably more humble nation had emerged from the
         conflict.

         Devastating Effects

         According to official figures, 3,884 US soldiers died between 2004
         and 2009, an additional 224 soldiers from allied nations, well over
         8,000 members of the Iraqi security forces (reasonably reliable
         figures are missing for 2004) and 92,003 Iraqi civilians whose
         deaths are documented by at least one source. Together, this makes
         more than 104,111 deaths, a figure that approximates the number of
         victims reported dead in these documents, namely 109,032. And
         although this war wasn't nearly as devastating in terms of the sheer
         number of casualties as the Vietnam War, with its 3 million deaths,
         its effects on the standing of the United States in the world have
         been no less devastating.

         One month before the beginning of the invasion, Bush had blustered
         that the overthrow of dictator Saddam Hussein and \"a new regime in
         Iraq would serve as a dramatic and inspiring example of freedom for
         other nations in the region.\" But the military that withdrew after
         seven years of war was a demoralized force that had long since
         ceased to believe in the noble goals of the campaign.

         The documents faithfully reflect this change. In the roughly 400,000
         documents, the word \"democracy\" appears only eight times. The
         \"improvised explosive devices\" which instilled fear in the hearts of
         American soldiers, however, are mentioned 146,895 times.

         Editor's Note: The next issue of DER SPIEGEL is currently in
         production and the magazine's main feature article on the WikiLeaks
         Iraq war logs will be published on SPIEGEL ONLINE International in
         English on Monday.
         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
","2010-10-23 00:55:13",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/968422_re-der-spiegel-on-iraq-war-logs-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
970494,"Re: INSIGHT - CHINA - RIO ESPIONAGE - CN65 [Analytical & Intelligence
	Comments] RE: Australia,	China: Accusations of Espionage
","   In this piece he mentions that the Chinese always target a Chinese foreign
   national.  That is what I got from my sources and from all the research we
   did on other cases seems to be exclusively the case.  I did not come
   across one westerner without Chinese decent that was ever implicated in
   such a case.   Chinese is Chinese no matter what your passport says. 

   Matthew Gertken wrote:

     Here's the Greg Sheridan article Jen's source mentions. It isn't
     brilliant or anything, but it pretty well captures the anger in
     Australia right now. And you have to admit, he's got a point. This was a
     really baldfaced move by China and this article is an example of the
     enormous domestic pressure that must be coming to bear on Rudd.

     Big risk in nasty business
     Greg Sheridan, Foreign editor | July 10, 2009
     http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25759154-5013460,00.html

     Article from:  The Australian

     THE arrest and detention in Shanghai of senior Australian Rio Tinto
     executive Stern Hu represents a grave crisis in Australia's relationship
     with China.

     It is a serious miscalculation by Beijing, and threatens to do lasting
     harm to China's interests, not only in Australia, but throughout the
     Western world.

     Rio Tinto is one of the biggest mining companies in the world. Recently
     it has earned the ire of official China (China Inc, as it's sometimes
     described) in two ways.

     It has pulled out of a huge deal in which the wholly Chinese government
     owned Chinalco was going to buy nearly $20 billion of Rio. And it is
     involved in tense negotiations over iron ore prices.

     And now Rio's number two man in China, a Chinese Australian, and three
     of his Chinese employees, are in custody, ludicrously on suspicion of
     espionage and stealing Chinese state secrets.

     Often when the Chinese state is under stress it reverts to Cold War
     rhetoric and indeed Cold War impulses.

     But really, to arrest a senior Rio executive for espionage? In 2009?

     This surely is 30 years out of date.

     These arrests always tend to be of ethnic Chinese, no matter what their
     citizenship, as though Beijing does not recognise the foreign
     nationality of anyone of Chinese blood.

     But if Australian executives cannot have difficult business dealings and
     negotiations in China without being arrested, this is a grievous
     development.

     The story has been reported widely internationally, on various forms of
     media including CNN and Bloomberg.

     Rio is a giant in the mining world. If Chinese authorities capriciously
     detain executives from companies such as Rio, what lessons will the
     international business community draw from this?

     Most of all, however, this is a crisis for the Rudd government. There is
     an air of contempt in the way the Chinese authorities have failed to
     respond to Australian government requests for information and for
     consular access to MrHu until today.

     What does the much touted Australia-China relationship add up to if
     Beijing treats Canberra with such conspicuous discourtesy and
     indifference? Or, more likely, are the Chinese deliberately sending a
     message? If so, it's a chilling message.

     If the Rudd government cannot secure Mr Hu's release within a few days,
     it will be seen as having zero influence with Beijing.

     Kevin Rudd's ambition to be a \"zhengyou\" to China, a good friend who can
     tell even unpleasant truths, will be torn to shreds.

     If the Rudd government cannot resolve this matter quickly, then every
     positive thing it ever says about its relations with Beijing will not be
     worth the hot air they take to say.

     The frequent talk of a special relationship between Australia and China
     will be seen as fatuous sentimentality.

     But the Chinese are risking serious interests as well.

     Their action against Mr Hu greatly strengthens those such as Nationals
     Senate leader Barnaby Joyce who argue against any strategic partnership
     between Australia and China, while China's many apologists in Australia
     will be deeply discredited.

     This nasty business needs to be resolved very quickly.

     Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       So my Aussie intelligence source that I was so worried about because
       he stayed in China incommunicado for over a week decides to get in
       touch with me via STRATFOR!  Ha.  Well anyways, I am resending this as
       insight in case not everyone picks this up.  This is very important
       and wish like hell we woulda got it this morning before I wrote up the
       CSM.  I guess we can always update next week or do a stand-alone piece
       - thoughts?

       SOURCE: CN65
       ATTRIBUTION: Former Australian State Senator
       SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Source is well-connected politically, militarily
       and economically.  He has become a
       private businessman helping foreign companies with M&As
       PUBLICATION: Yes
       SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
       ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
       DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
       SPECIAL HANDLING: None

         Hey Jen,

         Just back in Australia, but still only in Perth.  Won't get back to
         Brisbane until 1000 GMT on 10th July.  Happy to take a call after
         that. You may have missed a related issue on this story.

         The day in arrived in China the media announced proposed changes to
         the
         laws on state secrets.  These include increasing the range of things
         which
         could constitute revealing or stealing \"state secrets\".  Of course
         stealing
         them, or deliberately revealing them, can attract a death sentence. 
         The
         exact details are contained in clippings, which are in my checked
         luggage. I will get them once I get home.

         In my talks, the Chinese officials were turning themselves inside
         out over
         Chinalco, and the line given in the official media curiously blamed
         the
         Opposition.  The reason for this is simply that the Government and
         Rio
         don't want to admit that they got it seriously wrong.  You recall my
         comment on the clipping you showed me?  The problem is that they
         tried to
         push their bargaining position too hard instead of revising the deal
         to
         make it more immediately palatable.

         Interestingly, the arrests come not just during the protracted iron
         ore
         negotiations, but on the very weekend that Rio successfully
         concluded its
         rights issue to replace most of the cash they were to get from
         Chinalco.  I
         think these guys were really pissed off by that, and wanted to do
         something
         to lash out at Rio.  Also, they may have figured that arresting
         these guys
         would lead to a capitulation by Rio at the negotiating table.

         Rudd is copping a flogging for failing to say anything at all on the
         matter, even though the Australian has been in the bag for four
         days.  You
         need to see Greg Sheridan's article in the Australian today.  Also,
         you
         have a fan at the Australian Fin Review, as Stratfor commentary made
         up
         half the back page in the Chanticleer column there.

         I got out of China a week late, and was very worried for myself for
         a
         week, but all turned out okay.

         Hope all is well at your end.

         Bill

         Source:
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090708_australia_china_accusations_espionage
","2009-07-10 05:56:18",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/970494_re-insight-china-rio-espionage-cn65-analytical-and.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
970630,"Re: S-weekly for comments - Wikileaks, Lots of Fuss About Nothing
","   very nice. Really glad we're saying this. Thoughts within.

     WikiLeaks, Lots of Fuss About Nothing

      

     On Friday Oct. 22, the organization known as WikiLeaks published a cache
     of 391,832 classified documents on their website. The documents are
     mostly field reports filed by U.S. forces in Iraq from January 2004 to
     December 2009 (the months of May 2004 and March 2009 are somehow missing
     from the cache.) The bulk of the documents (379,565) were classified at
     the secret level with a handful of them being might explain that this is
     lower confidential. The remainder of the documents are unclassified.
     This large batch of documents are believed to have been released by
     Private First Class Bradley Manning, who was arrested in May 2010 by the
     U.S. Army's Criminal Investigations Command and charged with
     transferring thousands of classified documents onto his personal
     computer and then transmitting them to an unauthorized person. Manning
     is also believed to have been the source of the classified material
     [link http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100726_wikileaks_and_afghan_war ]
     released by WikiLeaks pertaining to the war in Afghanistan in July
     2010. 

      

     Like the Afghan war documents, WikiLeaks released the Iraq documents to
     a number of news outlets for analysis several weeks in advance. These
     news organizations included the New York Times, Der Spiegel, The
     Guardian and al Jazeera, and they each released special reports and
     websites to coincide with the formal release of the documents to the
     public by WikiLeaks.   

      

     Due to its investigation of Manning, the U.S. government also had a
     pretty good idea of what the material was before it was released and had
     formed a special task force to review the material for sensitive and
     potentially damaging information prior to the release. The Pentagon has
     denounced the release of the information, which it views as a crime, has
     demanded the return of its stolen property might make it clear how
     absurd this is a.) because it is electronic data and b.) after it has
     been released in electronic form on the internet, and has warned that
     the documents place Iraqis at risk for retaliation and also place the
     lives of U.S. troops at risk from terrorist groups who are mining the
     documents for tidbits of operational information than can be exploited
     to conduct attacks.

      

     When one takes a careful look at the classified documents released by
     WikiLeaks, it becomes quickly apparent that they have revealed very few
     true secrets. Indeed the main points being emphasized by al Jazeera and
     the other media outlets after all the intense research they conducted
     before the public release of the documents seem to highlight a number of
     issues that were well-known and well-chronicled for years prior to the
     release:  The U.S. knew the Iraqi government was torturing its own
     people; many civilians were killed during the six years the documents
     covered; sectarian? death squads were operating inside Iraq; and, the
     Iranian government was funding  Shiite militias. None of this is news.
     But, when one takes a step back from the documents themselves and looks
     at the larger picture, there are some other very interesting issues that
     have been raised by the release of these documents, and the reaction to
     the release. 

      

     The Documents

      

     The documents released in this cache of classified documents were taken
     from the U.S. government's Secret Internet Protocol Router Network
     (SIPRNet) a network that is used to distribute classified but not
     particularly sensitive information.  SIPRNet is only authorized for the
     transmission of information up to the secret level. It cannot be used
     for top secret or more closely guarded intelligence that is classified
     at the Secret level. The regulations by which information is classified
     by the U.S. government are outlined in Executive Order 13526. Under that
     order, secret is the second-highest level of classification and applies
     to information that, if released, would be reasonable expected to cause
     serious damage to U.S. national security.

      

     Due to the nature of SIPRNet, most of the information that was
     downloaded from it and sent to WikiLeaks was raw field reports from the
     U.S. troops in Iraq. These reports discussed things the units
     encountered, such as IED attacks, ambushes, the bodies of murdered
     civilians, friendly fire incidents, traffic accidents, etc.  For the
     most part they were raw information reports and not vetted, processed
     intelligence. The documents also did not contain reports that were the
     result of intelligence collection operations, and therefore did not
     reveal sensitive intelligence sources and methods.

      

     To provide a sense of the material involved, we will choose two of the
     reports randomly. The first report we encounter is a report classified
     at the secret level from an Military Police company reporting that the
     Iraqi Police found a dead body that had been executed in a village with
     a redacted name on Oct. 28, 2006. In another secret-level report we see
     that on January 1, 2004, the Iraqi police called a military police unit
     in Baghdad to report that an improvised explosive device had detonated
     and that there was another suspicious object found at the scene. The
     military police unit responded, confirmed the presence of the suspicious
     object and then called an explosive ordnance disposal unit which
     responded to the site and destroyed the second IED.  Now, while it may
     have been justified to classify such reports at the secret level at the
     time they were written under provisions designed to protect information
     pertaining to military operations, clearly, the release of these two
     reports in Oct. 2010 has not caused any serious damage to U.S. national
     security.

      

     Another factor to consider when reading raw information reports from the
     field is that while they offer a degree of granular detail that cannot
     be found in higher level intelligence analysis, they can often be
     misleading or otherwise erroneous.  As anyone who has ever interviewed a
     witness can tell you, in a stressful situation people often miss or
     misinterpret important factual details. That's just how most people are
     wired.  This situation can be compounded when a witness is placed in a
     completely alien culture. This is not to say that all these reports are
     flawed, but just to note the fact that that raw information reports must
     often be double-checked and vetted before they can be used in creating a
     reliable estimate of the situation on the battlefield, and the readers
     of these documents obviously will not have the ability to conduct that
     type of follow-up.

      

     Few True Secrets

      

     In reality, there are very few true secrets in the cache of documents
     released by WikiLeaks, and by true secrets we mean things that would
     cause serious damage to national security. And no, we are not about to
     point out the things that we believe to be truly damaging. However, it
     is important to understand up front that something that causes
     embarrassment and discomfort to a specific administration or agency does
     not necessarily cause damage to national security. and can actually
     serve to expose flaws (sometimes things are classified within the system
     precisely because they are embarrasing)

      

     As to the charges that the documents are being mined by terrorist groups
     for information that can be used in attacks against U.S. troops deployed
     overseas, this is undoubtedly true. It would be foolish for the Taliban
     the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) and other militant groups not to read
     the documents and attempt to benefit from them. However, there are very
     few things noted in these reports pertaining to the tactics, techniques
     and procedures (TTP) used by U.S. forces that could not be learned by
     simply observing combat operations -and the Taliban and ISI have been
     carefully studying U.S. TTP every hour of every day for many years now.
     These documents are far less valuable than years of careful, direct
     observation and regular, first-hand interaction.

     This is a really valuable point you don't see being made elsewhere.
     Might be valuable to expand into another graph and really emphasize here
     -- particularly how absurd the idea is that combatants that have been
     intensely engaged with us for the better part of a decade are really
     going to learn anything operationally useful from after-action reports
     -- or perhaps even that some U.S. report about an informant at that low
     of a level would reveal something new to the Taliban, which has a far
     greater local situational awareness of who talks to the U.S. and what
     they said than anyone doing reporting at the secret level does.

      

     This is not to say that the alleged actions of Manning were somehow
     justified. From the statements released by the government in connection
     with the case, Manning knew the information was classified and needed to
     be protected. He also appeared to know that his actions were illegal and
     could land him in trouble. 

      

     This is also not a justification for the actions of Wikipedia and the
     media outlets who are exploiting and profiting from the release of this
     information. However, what we are saying is that the hype surrounding
     the release is just that. There were a lot of classified documents
     released, but very few of them contained information that would truly
     shed new light on the actions of U.S. troops in Iraq or their allies or
     cause damage to the national security of the United States. While the
     amount of information released in this case was huge, it was clearly far
     less damaging than the information released by convicted spies such as
     Robert Hanssen and Aldrich Ames - information that crippled intelligence
     operations and directly resulted in the murder of Americans and American
     sources?.

      

     Culture of Classification

      

     Perhaps one of the most interesting facets of the WikiLeaks case is that
     is serves to highlight the culture of classification
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/i_could_tell_you_id_have_kill_you_cult_classification_intelligence
     that is so pervasive inside the U.S. government.  Only 204 of the
     391,832 documents were classified at the confidential level, while
     379,565 of them were classified at the secret level. This highlights the
     propensity of the U.S. government culture to classify documents at the
     highest possible classification, rather than at the lowest level truly
     required to protect said information. More is better.  

      

     Furthermore, while much of this material may have been somewhat
     sensitive at the time it was reported, most of that sensitivity has been
     lost over time, and many of the documents, like the two reports
     referenced above,  certainly no longer need to be classified.  EO 13256
     provides the ability for classifying agencies to set dates for materials
     to be declassified, and  indeed, according to the EO a date for
     declassification is supposed to be set every time a document is
     classified. But in practice, such declassification provisions are rarely
     used and most people just expect the documents to remain classified for
     the entire authorized period, which is 10 years in most cases and 25
     years when dealing with sensitive topics such as intelligence sources
     and methods or nuclear weapons.

      

     This culture of classification tends to creates so much classified
     material that it then becomes very difficult for government employees
     and security managers to determine what is really sensitive and what
     truly needs to be protected.  It also tends to reinforce the belief
     among government employees that knowledge is power and that one can
     become powerful by having access to information and denying that access
     to others. This belief then can often contribute to the bureaucratic
     jealously that results in the failure to share intelligence - a practice
     that was criticized so heavily in the 9/11 Commission Report.

      

     One of the things that will be important to watch in the wake of the
     WikiLeaks cases is how those who are a part of the culture of
     classification react to these events. Some U.S. government agencies,
     such as the FBI have bridled under the post 9/11 era mandates to share
     their information more widely and have been trying to scale back their
     sharing. As anyone who has dealt with the FBI can attest, they tend to
     be a semi-permeable membrane when it comes to the flow of information.
     Intelligence only flows one way - in -- and does not flow back out. But
     the FBI is certainly not alone. There are many organizations which are
     very hesitant to share information with other government agencies, even
     when those agencies have a legitimate need-to-know. they also guard
     their information closely for precisely this reason -- they don't think
     others properly vet or have the proper procedures in place to safeguard
     their information. so the default is not to share.

      

     Although the WikiLeaks case did not result in the disclosure of FBI or
     CIA information, and did not even shed much light on the DOD's
     intelligence collection activities, there are certainly people and
     organizations in the U.S. government who will attempt to use the case as
     bureaucratic justification for continuing to classify information at the
     highest possible levels and for controlling the access to the
     intelligence they generate even more stringently i.e. sharing it with
     less people.
     would conclude along these lines: this wikileaks business is partially a
     symptom of the utter overloading of the classification system with every
     possible piece of information when it serves no value to classify it.
     That overloading and overclassification actually weakens the system (as
     we saw with manning) and thereby endangers (though not directly in this
     case) the stuff the system exists to protect.
     The problem is not wait and see. We know the answer. The
     bureaucracy(ies) will treat the symptom with further classification,
     further restrictions on information sharing and further curtailment of
     accessibility to the lowest levels of classification. These are all
     exactly the opposite things they should be doing. So the ultimate damage
     that manning did was to strengthen a system that was already broken.
     That's the real irony.

      

      

     Scott Stewart

     STRATFOR

     Office: 814 967 4046

     Cell: 814 573 8297

     scott.stewart@stratfor.com

     www.stratfor.com
","2010-10-27 00:07:52",1,"2012-02-29 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/970630_re-s-weekly-for-comments-wikileaks-lots-of-fuss-about.html","hughes@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
971109,"Re: INSIGHT - BRAZIL - On military purchases
","   there was a lengthy Economist article just recently about how a German
   industrial giant (maybe Siemens) had really turned around after years of
   corrupt practices. It is one thing to make it illegal, it is another to
   actually clean house and end the practices. So the French may be further
   behind the curve on the latter -- also, they're getting desperate on the
   Rafale, since they're going to have to start shutting down the line
   eventually...

   On 10/18/2010 11:08 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

     PUBLICATION: If needed
     SOURCE: US505
     ATTRIBUTION: U.S. officials in Brazil
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: FSO stationed in Rio, in charge of econ cooperation
     SOURCE  Reliability : A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY:
     DISTRIBUTION: Secure
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Marko

     Asked a good source of mine in Rio what he thought about our internal
     discussion on Brazil and its military purchases. This was a phone
     conversation from Sunday, so I am going from memory on a lot of this.
     This was his answer:

     You are correct to be asking yourself what in God's name Brasilia is
     doing. Look, Brazilian navy is shit. It is a joke, and I would know
     because I talk to our military personnel at the consulate all the time
     about this. That they went for nuclear subs makes no sense. In fact, the
     fact they want the Rafale's and Gripen's is a joke too. The F-18 is the
     best piece of hardware. We even gave them as much tech transfer as we
     give anyone, short of the Israelis. We literally gave them a package
     that said \"you get everything, shade under the Israeli deal.\" It is a
     great deal and anyone would love to have it. Instead they're looking at
     the Rafale, which is overpriced even with price cuts, and the Gripen
     which is just shit. You purchase Gripen's if you're Slovakia.

     Our thinking, and we are pretty unified on this view, here at the
     Consulate and in the wider diplo community is that there are some
     serious kick backs going on. Brazil is an astonishingly corrupt country.
     However, our Treasury Department forbids us to pad their wallets the way
     the French can. That really is it. Remember that deal in Pakistan that
     led to the deaths of a bunch of French officials? Guess what that was
     about? Sale of three French submarines for $1 billion. The French
     supposedly had a kick back deal with Pakistan, which is why Pakistan
     bought the subs in the first place. [MP: later the French reneged on
     paying the kickback, which -- the theory goes -- resulted in the deaths
     of French engineers in 2002].

     I can't prove anything, and don't quote me on this, but the purchase of
     the submarines is so singularly stupid that it has to be part of some
     kickbacks. Lula is probably looking for retirement money. And look, the
     purchase came interestingly close to the end of his term. Same with the
     jets. Our Treasury Department is really vindictive on bribes. We can't
     do any real business because of it in a corrupt place like Brazil. The
     French have no such problems [MP: not saying I disagree, but I believe
     the French have also made bribing illegal].

     So I am sorry that I can't give you some grand explanation that talks of
     Brazil's grand strategy. It is our assessment that this is purely about
     bribes and the French using strategies they have applied in the past
     here in Brazil. The only difference is that Brazil now has money, lots
     of it, so it can do this stuff. I mean is it a coincidence that they are
     buying so much French stuff? The French know how to bribe.

     --

     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

     Marko Papic

     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

     STRATFOR

     700 Lavaca Street - 900

     Austin, Texas

     78701 USA

     P: + 1-512-744-4094

     marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-10-18 17:14:03",1,"2012-02-27 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/971109_re-insight-brazil-on-military-purchases-.html","hughes@stratfor.com","","marko.papic@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
973511,"Re: Taksim attack
","   How about JITM and other deep state forces?  Remember that Turkey tried to
   bomb a Kurdish cafe (if I remember correctly in 2007 in Shirnakh), but the
   guy was seized by the people sitting in the cafe before he gets away.  
   I must say that I have been calling PKK contacts since last night to get a
   statement about the bombing, but no answer.  Not just me, even other
   journalist friends have been calling, but no answer as well.  
   So I think they will say something shortly about the ceasefire and the
   Istanbul bombing.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Emre Dogru\" <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, November 1, 2010 1:12:41 PM
   Subject: Re: Taksim attack

   There are many points that needs to be considered when talking about
   whether this was a PKK attack or not. Briefly, I think this attack was
   organized by a) either a extremist faction of PKK that wants to prevent
   the talks between the government and PKK (which are not going very well
   already b) PKK core, but blaming independent groups within itself to avoid
   criticism from Kurdish politicians.

   Given the reasons that we wrote in the piece, the first culprit appears to
   be PKK. But of course, we cannot be sure about it. Therefore, we can start
   looking at this why other groups may not be perpetrators.

   Why this is unlikely to be the work of AQ and leftist groups? For AQ,
   we've couple of reasons. First, AQ's main target is not the Turkish police
   even though they do not avoid killing police. AQ usually aims to kill
   Christians and Jews and the institutions that represent them. Remember
   HSBC, Consulate and Synagog bombings in Istanbul in 2003. Many civilians
   and police were killed at the time, but the main target was not the
   police. But in Taksim case, the attacker intentionally targeted the
   police. Second, we know from OS and insight that AQ activity in Turkey
   seems to be under control since 2003. It is also fair to assume that
   Turkish and foreign intel agencies are in cooperation to avoid further
   attacks. A quick look at OS shows that AQ members and even sympathizers
   are arrested almost on a weekly basis.

   A leftist organization, as we mentioned DHKP-C in the piece, seems a more
   plausible possibility. But there are two issues here. First, senior
   security analysts say that the MO and the bomb that the attacker used does
   not seem to be a leftist work. Second, Kurdish politicians immediately
   floated the idea that this could be a leftist attack since some of their
   militants were arrested few days ago, which means that they want to acquit
   PKK. An important detail is that a leftist organization would protest
   something in Taksim square on the same day. I don't believe that DHKP-C
   was unaware of this.

   Now, I need to list the points that why this is likely to be a PKK attack:

   First, there are two arguments that we mentioned in the piece: a) end of
   ceasefire b) a similar attack to the police in June. But there are further
   points that makes it understandable why PKK is the main culprit. As I
   wrote several times in Turkey updates, PKK - government talks are on the
   verge of breakdown. You have no idea how critical KCK trial (trail of
   Kurdish politicians) is for PKK. And what I read and hear, government does
   not intend to compromise with PKK over KCK trial. A prominent Kurdish
   political figure Aysel Tugluk, who talks with Ocalan twice a month, said
   few days ago that \"very bad things could happen\". Right after the attack,
   none of the Kurdish politicians immediately condemned the attack and they
   were being very cautious while talking about PKK. I'm sure they suspect
   this could be a PKK attack.

   Above is the political context. Now let's have a closer look how the
   attack was organized. It's true that PKK rarely uses suicide bombers, but
   it is not out of their MO. Many PKK suicide bombers (one of them targeted
   prime minister's building this past summer) were thwarted. This was also
   the case before 2009 local elections. Moreover, the guy was not merely a
   suicide bomber. He was shot down by a police right after he detonated the
   first bomb. Police chief said they found \"button\" of an IED next to his
   body. This means that there was another bomb that he could use if he had
   time. Talking about Taksim, it is true that it is a bold target for PKK.
   But PKK made attacks in many bold areas in the past. The fact that Taksim
   is an entertainment area does not make it special. PKK bombed downtown of
   Kurdish city Diyarbakir two years ago, which killed several Kurdish school
   children. This was a bolder attack by PKK.

   Lastly, we can say a guy who claims to be PKK spokesman said this was not
   a PKK attack makes everything clear. I would say not really. PKK does not
   usually claim attacks. It attacks and kills, and everybody knows it is
   PKK. It denies its responsibility when there is a controversial attack
   such as this one. But who cares? PKK killed seven soldiers in Resadiye in
   2007 when the peace talks were going on. They first denied but then
   accepted it. There is a huge case that dates back to 1993, when 33
   non-armed soldiers were killed. PKK still denies it but even senior
   members later confessed that it was PKK's attack. Therefore, I would say
   PKK is a pragmatic organization that it can deny attacks even if it knows
   that a faction of PKK did it.

   Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     There are two types of suicide bombers generally speaking. First is the
     obvious case of jihadists who are religiously motivated to engage in
     this m.o. Second, are non-religious groups such as the Tamil rebels in
     SL and others who don't have the same quantity of human bombers in their
     arsenal as do jihadists. So, when they use them these are for really
     important occasions in which the bomber understands that he/she is
     giving up his/her life in a mission that will greatly enhance the
     group's cause. I am not leaning towards the possibility of jihadist
     involvement, but the Taksim attack doesn't fit with the what a secular
     group would view as a critical task. So, we need to dig deeper.

     On 10/31/2010 12:30 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

       2 questions, then:
       When was the last time pkk did a suicide attack? I can't recall
       exactly but I don't think the attack on the military post around the
       time of the flotilla incident was suicide.
       How long does pkk usually take to claim attacks? What are their forums
       saying?
       We need a better sense of whether internally pkk is surprised by the
       attack and whether there is internal tension because of it. (Yerevan,
       that's all you)

       Sent from my iPhone
       On Oct 31, 2010, at 11:10 AM, Yerevan Saeed
       <yerevan.saeed@stratfor.com> wrote:

         Called the PKK, but dont pick up the phone. Probably they know why I
         am calling and trying to prepare an answer.  will try again. 
         I agree with you about al Qaeda activities recently. I highly doubt
         PKK to resort to suicide bombing at the moment, if it was just a
         bomb, then I would says, yes, probably this is the act of the PKK. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
         To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
         Sent: Sunday, October 31, 2010 7:03:17 PM
         Subject: Taksim attack

         I'm not that convinced this is pkk, at least pkk core. When was the
          
         last time they did a suicide hit? Hitting taksim is also really  
         gutsy...that is the ideal target for any bomber. We've been seeing a
          
         lot more restraint from these guys in light of the akp's
         negotiations  
         with pkk, krg, etc. Doesn't mean that ceasefire couldn't have broken
          
         down, but this kind of attack gives the military an excuse to tell
         the  
         akp its approach toward pkk isn't working and use lublic support to
          
         reassert itself. Pkk is already under pressure from the krg side.
         The  
         one thing working for them is that with winter approaching it'll be
          
         that much harder for the military to pursue them.

         There has been some AQ activity in turkey, so I wouldn't rule that
         out  
         yet. There could also be a splinter pkk faction unhappy with the  
         negotiations. Yerevan, we need to see how pkk is reacting to this  
         attack. There hasn't been any claim or denial yet, right,

         Sent from my iPhone

         --
         Yerevan Saeed
         STRATFOR
         Phone: 009647701574587
         IRAQ

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

   --
   Yerevan Saeed
   STRATFOR
   Phone: 009647701574587
   IRAQ
","2010-11-01 11:54:47",1,"2010-03-10 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/973511_re-taksim-attack-.html","yerevan.saeed@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
973892,"INSIGHT - CN65 Re: [OS] CHINA/ENERGY - Coal-powered energy consumption
	to decrease in Q4: NEA
","   In response to this article.

   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator.  Source is 
   well-connected politically, militarily and economically.  He has become a
   private businessman helping foreign companies with M&As
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2/3
   DISTRIBUTION: East Asia
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen
   I don't believe it at all.  They say this stuff all the time, just as they
   say that they are going to be self-sufficient in coal this year!
   But they are still building coal fired power plants fast than they are
   putting them out of commission.  Usually these comments are made with the
   intention to try to influence commodity prices.  Consider the statements
   they have made about iron ore consumption.

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: [OS] CHINA/ENERGY - Coal-powered energy consumption to         
               decrease in Q4: NEA                                            
         Date: Wed, 27 Oct 2010 12:47:44 -0500                                
         From: Clint Richards <clint.richards@stratfor.com>                   
     Reply-To: The OS List <os@stratfor.com>                                  
           To: The OS List <os@stratfor.com>                                  

     Coal-powered energy consumption to decrease in Q4: NEA

     http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/greenchina/2010-10/27/content_11465639.htm

     2010-10-27 14
       
     China's demand for coal-powered energy is expected to drop in the fourth
     quarter. But China's energy authorities say diesel and petrol
     consumption will remain high.

     The National Energy Administration, the energy sector's governing body,
     believes the government's efforts to cut emissions will bear fruit in
     the fourth quarter.

     Wang Siqiang, an official at National Energy Administration, says demand
     for coal will cool. That's due to the slower growth of the industry.

     Wang also says the annual net import of coal is expected to increase by
     16 percent from a year ago.

     \"We predict that the demand and supply of coal will be largely balanced
     in the fourth quarter, and supply is relatively abundant,\" said Wang
     Siqiang

     Wang also says investment in power plants will remain relatively strong,
     with the whole year's newly built installed capacity expected to reach
     90 million kilowatts.

     He says some regions in the Southwest and Central China will experience
     a crunch in hydro-power supply, due to lower water volumes in some
     rivers during the winter season.

     According to Wang, the supply of processed oil will be sufficient in the
     last quarter of this year, with demand continuing its growth trend.

     Diesel fuel consumption is forecast to retain growth, as industrial
     manufacturing and construction engineering enter peak season.

     Petrol consumption is also expected to experience a boom, with
     burgeoning car sales.
","2010-10-28 03:18:20",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/973892_insight-cn65-re-os-china-energy-coal-powered-energy.html","michael.wilson@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
976931,"Re: INSIGHT - CHINA/AUSTRALIA - General observations and Sino-Oz
	relations	- CN65
","   probably two things

   1) capital flight - into things like bonds, real estate and such --
   non-FDI investments -- most of this is probably NOT from the major
   corps/state

   2) resource acquisition - one of the nice things about china's financial
   model is that there is little return for making a profit, so spending $4
   billion for a $2 billion asset is considered a-ok

   there can obviously be overlap as anything that is a 2) is certainly
   considered a reliable hard asset that is out of the country

   On 9/28/2010 9:02 AM, Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

     In response to some of Matt's queries.  We were talking the other day
     and he noted that the Chinese seemed to be investing in anything and
     everything.  We had a lively discussion on whether or not this was an
     indication of capital flight.  He thought it wasn't this as much as it
     was the attempt to put the money in a place far away from government
     control.  But he did concede that there could be some element of capital
     flight insofar as there was nothing with high ROI in China.  Although he
     argues that there are plenty of projects to invest in in China, but it
     isn't about opportunity as much as it is ROI.  To that though he pointed
     out that the Chinese really weren't all that interested in ROI in their
     overseas investments either, although it was a nice bene.  We have
     argued in the past that their primary concern is supply-line security,
     which I think is still correct, but they are investing in projects in
     Australia recently that the source argues does not do much to secure
     supply-lines.  At any rate, this is a bit of an extension of this
     conversation in relation to Matt's recent questions.  Sources responses
     are in red.

     SOURCE: CN65
     ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
     natural resources
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator.  Source is 
     well-connected politically, militarily and economically.  He has become
     a
     private businessman helping foreign companies with M&As
     PUBLICATION: Yes but with no attribution
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3/4
     DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

       So there are a couple of things that we are watching.  China's foreign
       policy seems to have become considerably more feisty in the past year,
       and there are basically two theories for explaining this behavior: a
       centralized theory (in which more assertive foreign policy is being
       generated at the top central leadership) and a de-centralized theory
       (in which Hu Jintao and the central leaders are seen as weak, and
       powerful forces within China are each pushing their own interests
       internationally). In the latter theory we hypothesize that there are
       different elements within the Chinese system (such as different
       ministries, outward-looking SOEs, and the PLA) pushing their
       interests, leading to more assertive behavior on several fronts, but
       that these are relatively uncoordinated and not necessarily following
       orders from the central leadership.

       What are your thoughts?  This touches on our last convo of the varied
       companies that are combing Oz for investments.  Any more thoughts on
       this appreciated. 

     I'm noting an interesting trend in that there are fewer big investments,
     and more \"non-traditional\" investments, such as real estate.  I describe
     these as non-traditional, in that most investment has, hitherto, been
     aimed at achieving resource security or resource sovereignty (the
     Chinese have never been good at distinguishing the difference).  Now,
     the investments seem very different, and are aimed at things which are
     simply financial.  The question is why are they doing this?
     I think it is decentralised, and based on the objectives of the elite in
     control of state owned companies.  If this is so, it leaves serious
     doubts about the authority of the NDRC, which is supposed to vet
     outbound investment.  The alternative is that NDRC remains strong, but
     that this investment is made with hard currency that never came onshore.
      I specialised in washing this sort of money in Latin America 20 years
     ago, and there are lots of ways of doing it.

       On a similar note, what do you think about the progress and
       limitations of Sino-Australian defense ties, especially in regards to
       China's seemingly new assertiveness mentioned above?  Is there any
       coordination with the Americans when Australia holds talks with
       Chinese military and defense officials?  How do the Australians
       perceive and plan to respond to the increasingly active Chinese
       foreign policy in the Pacific islands? 

     Generally Australia takes a dim view of others messing around in our
     backyard, even the New Zealanders.  You can guess the attitude to China.
      I don't know about talking to the Americans.  The PLAN thing was noted
     last week, but there have been various exercises with them, and these
     make sense to an extent, since we have a shared interest in protecting
     seaborne trade between the two countries, especially ships passing
     through the Malacca Straits.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 richmond@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 X4105
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-09-28 16:43:59",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/976931_re-insight-china-australia-general-observations-and-sino-oz.html","zeihan@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
976964,"Re: S-weekly for comments - Wikileaks, Lots of Fuss About Nothing
","   Good piece.  A few comments below.  Also, I think people are going to be
   wondering why a private first class who obviously wasn't trustworthy would
   be in the position to read these files.  You address it, essentially, by
   inferring that this information is not all that sensitive; however, it
   would be nice to see a sentence on the matter (that would presumably say
   that shit happens). 

   scott stewart wrote:

     WikiLeaks, Lots of Fuss About Nothing

      

     On Friday Oct. 22, the organization known as WikiLeaks published a cache
     of 391,832 classified documents on their website. The documents are
     mostly field reports filed by U.S. forces in Iraq from January 2004 to
     December 2009 (the months of May 2004 and March 2009 are somehow missing
     from the cache.) The bulk of the documents (379,565) were classified at
     the secret level with a handful of them being confidential. I don't
     think most ppl know the difference between secret and confidential.  The
     remainder of the documents are unclassified. This large batch of
     documents are believed to have been released by Private First Class
     Bradley Manning, who was arrested in May 2010 by the U.S. Army's
     Criminal Investigations Command and charged with transferring thousands
     of classified documents onto his personal computer and then transmitting
     them to an unauthorized person. Manning is also believed to have been
     the source of the classified material [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100726_wikileaks_and_afghan_war ]
     released by WikiLeaks pertaining to the war in Afghanistan in July
     2010. 

      

     Like the Afghan war documents, WikiLeaks released the Iraq documents to
     a number of news outlets for analysis several weeks in advance. These
     news organizations included the New York Times, Der Spiegel, The
     Guardian and al Jazeera, and they each released special reports and
     websites to coincide with the formal release of the documents to the
     public by WikiLeaks.   

      

     Due to its investigation of Manning, the U.S. government also had a
     pretty good idea of what the material was before it was released and had
     formed a special task force to review the material for sensitive and
     potentially damaging information prior to the release. The Pentagon has
     denounced the release of the information, which it views as a crime, has
     demanded the return of its stolen property, and has warned that the
     documents place Iraqis at risk for retaliation and also place the lives
     of U.S. troops at risk from terrorist groups who are mining the
     documents for tidbits of operational information than can be exploited
     to conduct attacks.

      

     When one takes a careful look at the classified documents released by
     WikiLeaks, it becomes quickly apparent that they have revealed very few
     true secrets. Indeed the main points being emphasized by al Jazeera and
     the other media outlets after all the intense research they conducted
     before the public release of the documents seem to highlight a number of
     issues that were well-known and well-chronicled for years prior to the
     release:  The U.S. knew the Iraqi government was torturing its own
     people; many civilians were killed during the six years the documents
     covered; death squads were operating inside Iraq; and, the Iranian
     government was funding  Shiite militias. None of this is news. But, when
     one takes a step back from the documents themselves and looks at the
     larger picture, there are some other very interesting issues that have
     been raised by the release of these documents, and the reaction to the
     release. 

      

     The Documents

      

     The documents released in this cache of classified documents were taken
     from the U.S. government's Secret Internet Protocol Router Network
     (SIPRNet) a network that is used to distribute classified but not
     particularly sensitive information.  SIPRNet is only authorized for the
     transmission of information up to the secret level. It cannot be used
     for top secret or more closely guarded intelligence that is classified
     at the Secret level. The regulations by which information is classified
     by the U.S. government are outlined in Executive Order 13526. Under that
     order, secret is the second-highest level of classification and applies
     to information that, if released, would be reasonable expected to cause
     serious damage to U.S. national security.

      

     Due to the nature of SIPRNet, most of the information that was
     downloaded from it and sent to WikiLeaks was raw field reports from the
     U.S. troops in Iraq. These reports discussed things the units
     encountered, such as IED attacks, ambushes, the bodies of murdered
     civilians, friendly fire incidents, traffic accidents, etc.  For the
     most part they were raw information reports and not vetted, processed
     intelligence. The documents also did not contain reports that were the
     result of intelligence collection operations, and therefore did not
     reveal sensitive intelligence sources and methods.

      

     To provide a sense of the material involved, we will choose two of the
     reports randomly. The first report we encounter is a report classified
     at the secret level from an Military Police company reporting that the
     Iraqi Police found a dead body that had been executed in a village with
     a redacted name on Oct. 28, 2006. In another secret-level report we see
     that on January 1, 2004, the Iraqi police called a US military police
     unit in Baghdad to report that an improvised explosive device had
     detonated and that there was another suspicious object found at the
     scene. The military police unit responded, confirmed the presence of the
     suspicious object and then called an explosive ordnance disposal unit
     which responded to the site and destroyed the second IED.  Now, while it
     may have been justified to classify such reports at the secret level at
     the time they were written under provisions designed to protect
     information pertaining to military operations, clearly, the release of
     these two reports in Oct. 2010 has not caused any serious damage to U.S.
     national security.

      

     Another factor to consider when reading raw information reports from the
     field is that while they offer a degree of granular detail that cannot
     be found in higher level intelligence analysis, they can often be
     misleading or otherwise erroneous.  As anyone who has ever interviewed a
     witness can tell you, in a stressful situation people often miss or
     misinterpret important factual details. That's just how most people are
     wired.  This situation can be compounded when a witness is placed in a
     completely alien culture. This is not to say that all these reports are
     flawed, but just to note the fact that that raw information reports must
     often be double-checked and vetted before they can be used in creating a
     reliable estimate of the situation on the battlefield, and the readers
     of these documents obviously will not have the ability to conduct that
     type of follow-up. There's also a selection bias.  It is not necessary
     to mention, but a view of the on-the-ground situation is going to be
     tainted by the fact that people don't report seeing butterflys and
     double rainbows.  If someone wants to know what life was/is like for
     soldiers in Iraq these are only part of the picture.

      

     Few True Secrets

      

     In reality, there are very few true secrets in the cache of documents
     released by WikiLeaks, and by true secrets we mean things that would
     cause serious damage to national security. And no, we are not about to
     point out the things that we believe to be truly damaging. However, it
     is important to understand up front that something that causes
     embarrassment and discomfort does not necessarily cause damage to
     national security.

      

     As to the charges that the documents are being mined by terrorist groups
     for information that can be used in attacks against U.S. troops deployed
     overseas, this is undoubtedly true. It would be foolish for the Taliban
     the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) and other militant groups not to read
     the documents and attempt to benefit from them. However, there are very
     few things noted in these reports pertaining to the tactics, techniques
     and procedures (TTP) used by U.S. forces that could not be learned by
     simply observing combat operations -and the Taliban and ISI have been
     carefully studying U.S. TTP every hour of every day for many years now.
     These documents are far less valuable than years of careful observation.

      

     This is not to say that the alleged actions of Manning were somehow
     justified. From the statements released by the government in connection
     with the case, Manning knew the information was classified and needed to
     be protected. He also appeared to know that his actions were illegal and
     could land him in trouble. 

      

     This is also not a justification for the actions of Wikipedia Wikileaks.
     Certain they aren't connected to Wikipedia. and the media outlets who
     are exploiting and profiting from the release of this information.
     However, what we are saying is that the hype surrounding the release is
     just that. There were a lot of classified documents released, but very
     few of them contained information that would truly shed new light on the
     actions of U.S. troops in Iraq or their allies or cause damage to the
     national security of the United States. While the amount of information
     released in this case was huge, it was clearly far less damaging than
     the information released by convicted spies such as Robert Hanssen and
     Aldrich Ames - information that crippled intelligence operations and
     killed people.

      

     Culture of Classification

      

     Perhaps one of the most interesting facets of the WikiLeaks case is that
     is serves to highlight the culture of classification that is so
     pervasive inside the U.S. government.  Only 204 of the 391,832 documents
     were classified at the confidential level, while 379,565 of them were
     classified at the secret level. This highlights the propensity of the
     U.S. government culture to classify documents at the highest possible
     classification, rather than at the lowest level truly required to
     protect said information. More is better.   Unclear if you are stating
     this as the writer or if you are stating the US perspective.  You
     address it below, but suggest making it clear here.

      

     Furthermore, while much of this material may have been somewhat
     sensitive at the time it was reported, most of that sensitivity has been
     lost over time, and many of the documents, like the two reports
     referenced above,  certainly no longer need to be classified.  EO 13256
     provides the ability for classifying agencies to set dates for materials
     to be declassified, and  indeed, according to the EO a date for
     declassification is supposed to be set every time a document is
     classified. But in practice, such declassification provisions are rarely
     used and most people just expect the documents to remain classified for
     the entire authorized period, which is 10 years in most cases and 25
     years when dealing with sensitive topics such as intelligence sources
     and methods or nuclear weapons.  Is it not used because its just another
     beauracratic thing to do or because people are covering their asses?

      

     This culture of classification tends to creates so much classified
     material that it then becomes very difficult for government employees
     and security managers to determine what is really sensitive and what
     truly needs to be protected.  It also tends to reinforce the belief
     among government employees that knowledge is power and that one can
     become powerful by having access to information and denying that access
     to others. This belief then can often contribute to the bureaucratic
     jealously that results in the failure to share intelligence - a practice
     that was criticized so heavily in the 9/11 Commission Report.  

      

     One of the things that will be important to watch in the wake of the
     WikiLeaks cases is how those who are a part of the culture of
     classification react to these events. Some U.S. government agencies,
     such as the FBI have bridled under the post 9/11 era mandates to share
     their information more widely and have been trying to scale back their
     sharing. As anyone who has dealt with the FBI can attest, they tend to
     be a semi-permeable membrane when it comes to the flow of information.
     Intelligence only flows one way - in -- and does not flow back out. But
     the FBI is certainly not alone. There are many organizations which are
     very hesitant to share information with other government agencies, even
     when those agencies have a legitimate need-to-know.

      

     Although the WikiLeaks case did not result in the disclosure of FBI or
     CIA information, and did not even shed much light on the DOD's
     intelligence collection activities, there are certainly people and
     organizations in the U.S. government who will attempt to use the case as
     bureaucratic justification for continuing to classify information at the
     highest possible levels and for controlling the access to the
     intelligence they generate even more stringently i.e. sharing it with
     less people. It will be interesting to watch and see if they are
     successful in their efforts to roll back some of the post 9/11
     information sharing mandates based on the large amount of media
     attention the WikiLeaks case has generated.

      

      

     Scott Stewart

     STRATFOR

     Office: 814 967 4046

     Cell: 814 573 8297

     scott.stewart@stratfor.com

     www.stratfor.com
","2010-10-26 21:44:29",1,"2012-03-01 23:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/976964_re-s-weekly-for-comments-wikileaks-lots-of-fuss-about.html","melissa.taylor@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
977100,"Re: FOR COMMENT: Likely ETA attacks in Mallorca
","   In response, the Spanish government temporarily suspended travel at the
   island's ports and airport in an alleged alleged? effort to capture those
   responsible for the attacks.

   -Yeah, that's the reason that the police gave, although my first thought
   was that maybe there was a threat to transportation and so they wanted to
   close it down. 

   Karen Hooper wrote:

     Ben West wrote:

     Two police officers died when a small improvised explosive device (IED)
     detonated July 30 outside a police barracks in Palmanova, Spain, a small
     coastal town on the Mediterranean Spanish island of Mallorca, a
     destination popular with European tourists. The relatively limited
     damage from the blast is consistent with a device -- containing probably
     no more than 10 pounds of explosive -- being attached to a parked car,
     most likely near the vehicle's gas tank.  A second device was later
     found and defused in the same area, with unconfirmed reports saying that
     it, too, was placed under a police vehicle. In response, the Spanish
     government temporarily suspended travel at the island's ports and
     airport in an alleged alleged? effort to capture those responsible for
     the attacks.
      
     No one has claimed responsibility for the bombing, though authorities
     suspect that it was carried out by the Basque separatist militant group
     Euskadi ta Askatasuna (ETA). Indeed, the targeting of police officers
     and the use of an IED concealed in a car matches previous ETA attacks.
     Mallorca does not have a significant history of ETA activity, with the
     noteworthy exception of the group's 2005 plan to assassinate Spanish
     King Juan Carlos I there which was disrupted by police.  ETA is known to
     conduct attacks in tourist areas such as Malaga in 2002, and the popular
     tourist area in Madrid, Callao Square in 2000 and while today's attack
     certainly took place in an area with lots of tourists, it was not
     specifically against a tourist target.  Certainly the island's tourist
     industry will suffer as a side-affect though, as the ports and airports
     on the island were temporarily shut down to search for culprits.  (Palma
     de Mallorca airport is the second busiest in Spain, with upwards of
     90,000 passengers traveling through there per day during the tourist
     season.)   

     Today's attack is the second in as many days, the third time in the past
     year that suspected ETA militants clustered their attacks within a two
     day period, as seen in the timeline below. This is a tactic likely put
     in place with a design to maximize public exposure in the press, as
     consecutive attack generally garner more attention than single, isolated
     attacks.

     ETA attacks in the past year:

     July 30: An explosive device placed under a police patrol vehicle
     detonated, killing two officers

     July 29: An explosive laden van detonated outside Civil Guard barracks
     in Burgos

     July 10: An explosive device was detonated outside a Basque socialist
     party office in XXX

     June 19: An explosive device killed a Spanish policeman as he was
     leaving for work in Arrigorriaga [LINK]

     March 26: An explosive device detonated outside the home of a
     businessman in Basque country.

     February 9: An explosive device detonated in Madrid, causing physical
     damage but harming no one.

     January 16: Police defused two explosive devices near a television
     tower.

     December 31: An explosive device fitted to a car detonated at the
     regional broadcasting network headquarters in Bilbao.

     December 3: Gunmen shot and killed a man in Azpetia, Basque country

     December 2: A car bomb exploded at the University of Navarra in
     Pampalona, injuring 17.

     September 22: A car bomb exploded outside a military school in Catabria
     region, killing a soldier and wounding another.

     September 21: Suspected ETA militants threw Molotov Cocktails at a
     police station in Ondarroa, injuring 10 people

     September 21: A car bomb exploded in Vitoria after an anonymous phone
     call warned of an attack.

     With a changing demographic and political climate in the Basque
     autonomous region, STRATFOR has noted that ETA, with less support in its
     Basque autonomous region, is likely to become more violent as it becomes
     more desperate. As Basque country overall grows more moderate, ETA will
     be left with only the most extreme members who could very well deviate
     from the common ETA practices of avoiding civilians, calling attacks in
     ahead of time and conducting attacks in the middle of the night when
     casualties are less likely.  

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890

     --
     Karen Hooper
     Latin America Analyst
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890
","2009-07-30 21:36:50",1,"2012-08-06 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/977100_re-for-comment-likely-eta-attacks-in-mallorca-.html","ben.west@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
982788,"Re: Discussion - Turkey/MIL - The Turkish Navy
","   Overview on proficiencies/repuations:
   Details and sources attached
     * Turkish Naval Training parallels US training with prep schools,
       academies, specialized centers
     * Turkish Navy lacks training, but has other modern training facilities
     * Submarine Training Center is professional and has several specialized
       courses, trains foreign navies, but no mention of hands-on training
     * Turkish Navy gains experience from exercises with NATO, US, Israel,
       and Russia (some are annual and have continued for up to 8 years)
     * The U.S. Navy transferred command of the Combined Maritime Forces'
       (CMF) counterpiracy task force to the Turkish Navy May 3, suggesting
       the Turkish Navy has some training and experience necessary to lead.
     * Both Russian and US Navy representatives have made positive comments
       about Turkish Navy after exercises:
          * A United States naval officer experienced in joint operations
            with the Turkish navy wrote that all crews were \"trained to a
            level far exceeding the capabilities of their platforms.\" 
          * \"The Turkish navy is very strong and has deep traditions. We've
            sharpened our inter-operational ability with them.\" said ship
            commander Sergey Okhrenchuk.

   Peter Zeihan wrote:

     black see has a lot of $$$ on it -- remember that it is the terminus for
     the Danube, so it is a major trade hub for Europe from Bavaria on down
     through the balkans

     which isn't to say that the greeks play there much

     what i'm saying is that greece's competes in the north central med and
     that's it, and its range of competition is roughly matched by the
     resources they have available

     turkey is in three seas -- black, agean and eastern med -- but its got a
     relatively small land area to draw strength from AND it faces different
     competitors in each realm....its a resources to needs mismatch and
     explains why the ottomans were never known as particularly competent
     sailors

     cyprus is a mess -- it'll never have a big navy, but its a helluva
     aircraft carrier

     Nate Hughes wrote:

       well, they're also the only country with concerns in both bodies of
       water. I mean, so long as it doesn't become home to a major Russian
       fleet, what does Greece care about the Black Sea? Do they trade there
       a lot? Seems like the Black Sea has a ways to go before it really
       becomes a commercial hot spot like the Baltic has the potential to
       be...

       Agree, since Turkey also has significant requirements for a ground
       combat capability and air force that the navy requirement may be
       onorous. Can try to pull numbers on that as well.

       How strategic vs. petty is Cyprus?

       Peter Zeihan wrote:

         seems to me that the ratio of coastline and competitors to the
         resources that they have to throw at their navy is absolutely
         horrible

         the only reason they can hope to compete navally is because the
         straits allow them to shuffle fleets back and forth while denying
         that benefit to competitors

         Nate Hughes wrote:

           First way I want to look at this piece is geographic. Turkey is a
           peninsula with a limited river system and a mountainous interior.
           Communication and commerce by sea is not as natural as it is for
           the Greeks, but certainly an important part of a modern economy.

           It is literally at the crossroads of two continents and two bodies
           of water. The Bosporus and Dardanelles can be controlled fairly
           well from land so long as Turkey has firm control of both banks.

           Nevertheless, there are Greek islands up and down the Turkish west
           coast that are essentially in artillery range of Turkish
           population centers. And if Turkey wants to not only control the
           Bosporus and Dardanelles but actually control access for Istanbul
           to the Mediterranean and beyond, it has to be able to tango with
           the Greeks in the Aegean.

           There's also the Cyprus issue.

           In addition, it has to ensure that it is the dominant power in the
           Black Sea. So you've got a navy that has to be spread pretty
           broadly, but can be massed pretty quickly too as long as Turkish
           control of the critical sealanes and straits remains strong.

           >From the late '90s up until this latest deal with Germany for six
           new subs (not unexpected or surprising in and of itself), Turkey
           has been broadly expanding its fleet -- from submarines to
           frigates to patrol boats. In terms of raw equipment, it is well
           ahead of Russia or anybody else on the Black Sea and Greece, too
           -- though Greece is much closer matched than even the Russians.

           Kendra is looking more into their proficiencies and reputation as
           sailors. Will also be pulling together some insight questions.

           But initial thoughts?
           --
           Nathan Hughes
           Military Analyst
           STRATFOR
           512.744.4300 ext. 4102
           nathan.hughes@stratfor.com
","2009-07-02 20:01:33",1,"2012-03-09 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/982788_re-discussion-turkey-mil-the-turkish-navy-.html","kendra.vessels@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com","attach/97/97137_Turkish_Navy_Rep.doc"
983788,"RE: DISCUSSION - Obama policy for mideast
","   BB, being the man of honor that he is, intends to let Obama know (I've
   been told man to man) that he is the vanguard of the State of Israel, with
   the hell bent intentions (Bush like I may add) of neutralizing the Iranian
   nuclear menace, because he trusts this Presidency about as much as I
   do.   For that, he gets my man of the year award. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
   Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2009 3:41 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: DISCUSSION - Obama policy for mideast
   Bibi is coming to town soon. The rumor is that in a few weeks Obama will
   be unveiling a new road map, calling for a two-state solution, yadda
   yadda.
   Now everyone knows that the Israeli-Palestinian issue is going nowhere.
   It's the geopolitical quicksand for any president trying to build a
   legacy. And especially now since the Israelis can hang Iran over the US's
   head, dont have to concede on anything and Bibi is going to be a hard ass
   on this for sure.
   So, Obama, why take this on so early in your presidency? it's not going to
   score you points, and you've gotta ton of other shit on your plate to
   worry about. is this more about PR stunts to win friends in the Islamic
   world?  a distraction from af/pak?
","2009-05-12 22:54:48",1,"2012-03-27 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/983788_re-discussion-obama-policy-for-mideast-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
991928,"INSIGHT - US/Pakistan - Government and Military Relations - PK700
","   Source Code: PK700
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former Pakistani intelligence officer
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: C (personal opinion/analysis and speculation)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   Source sent these comments with the article \"Thinking the Unthinkable\" by
   Abdus Salam Akhtar:

   A sample of the reaction to Mullens statement in Pakistan. I think the
   trust and the partnership has been very very badly damaged. People think
   this as the third betrayal of Pakistan by USA and the worst outcome has
   been the opportunity to those opposing Pakistan,s help/participation  to
   gloat and have something to say. The more US media or the officials blame
   The ISI the more they make it impossible for any one to even utter a word
   of support for US. 
   I am surprised that the US authorities have not yet learnt that in
   Pakistan there is very high value placed on respect. You can achieve a lot
   by talking nicely and secretly but insulting a nation and behaving like
   the proverbial ugly American will only earn you hostility. The national
   make up of Afghans and Pakistanis is not very different and both have
   fairly pronounced suicidal tendencies. I pray better sense prevails and
   damage repair exercise is undertaken. The entire political leadership
   across the board met yesterday and agreed to stand with the Army and The
   ISI.
","2011-09-30 18:43:15",1,"2012-02-27 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/991928_insight-us-pakistan-government-and-military-relations-pk700-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","fred.burton@stratfor.com,watchofficer@stratfor.com",""
994037,"INSIGHT - ECON/IRELAND - Moody's LATEST Analyses on Ireland
","   Not yet published, DO NOT FORWARD TO ANYONE.

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-11-10 20:40:32",1,"2012-02-27 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/994037_insight-econ-ireland-moody-s-latest-analyses-on-ireland-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:econ@stratfor.com","econ@stratfor.com","attach/97/97446_sovereign risk report 11 8_Final dg.pdf
attach/97/97447_ireland againV2.docx"
999236,"Re: anybody have questions for former Spanish PM Aznar
","   he is impeccably dressed. the most beautiful hair... so silky and shiny! i
   might ask him what shampoo he uses
   On Nov 16, 2010, at 3:41 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     Como se dice \"Movember\" en espanol?

     <moz-screenshot-68.png>

     On 11/16/10 3:33 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       Uh, how about a party for stratfor in his (or one of his friends')
       mediterranean villa?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Michael Wilson <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
       Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Tue, 16 Nov 2010 15:32:32 -0600
       To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
       ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
       Subject: Re: anybody have questions for former Spanish PM Aznar
       can i crash on his couch?

       On 11/16/10 3:26 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

         can you just tell him \"good call on blaming ETA\" for me?

         On 11/16/10 3:18 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

           he's teaching our class today

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
","2010-11-16 22:44:36",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/999236_re-anybody-have-questions-for-former-spanish-pm-aznar-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1001359,"Re: Former Spanish PM Azner
","   Haha, I'm glad you noticed those gorgeous locks as well
   Aznar could have been exaggerating the ETA in VZ stuff, but who knows

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Nov 16, 2010, at 6:35 PM, Reginald Thompson
   <reginald.thompson@stratfor.com> wrote:

     At least 20 camps? Pretty impressive. That's more than I've seen in OS,
     where so far all they've been focusing on is the Guasdalito camp where
     Cubillas was allegedly at, but it's quite possible all those former
     etarras are spread out all over the place. I would he's a lot more open
     about heaping criticisms on Chavez since I heard him speak at Trinity
     back in 2004, where he referred to him as \"an interesting man.\" My
     brother has a picture of himself with Aznar at that event. Every time I
     look at it I really do think, it's always his hair that I notice.....

     -----------------
     Reginald Thompson

     Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741

     OSINT
     Stratfor

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Tuesday, November 16, 2010 5:26:21 PM
     Subject: Former Spanish PM Azner

     Wow, SeA+-or presidente is hardcore.. Way more extreme than even the  
     Israeli officials I've heard speak. He honestly believes that all  
     terrorists are the same and that nothing short of total war can defeat  
     them. He is adamantly against any kind of negotiation with terrorists  
     and criticizes France, Germany and others heavily in this regard. He  
     attributes French and German \"weakness\" on counterterrorism to their  
     larger Muslim populations. He said OBL's statement on retaking Andaluz  
     is all he heard and the Germans and French just didn't get it. He says  
     poverty has zero connection to terrorism and that developmental aid  
     policies are useless. On ETA, he said the ceasefires are just time  
     buying measures, nothing more. In Catalonia he says the regional govt  
     encourages Muslim immigration from Pakistan, Algeria, etc because they  
     can more easily linguistically integrate them as opposed to Spanish-
     speaking immigrants. This is also where the most radical imams are in  
     the country. He also said ETA has at least 20 camps in Venezuela and  
     ggat farc and eta work with each other in training l, weapons, etc.

     Overall, he's very ideological and hardline. Good reminder of the  
     personal role in poltics (though he also paid for that and is  
     embarassed by his loss)

     Also, great hair.

     Sent from my iPhone
","2010-11-17 00:44:52",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1001359_re-former-spanish-pm-azner-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1002984,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   Brown

   On 10/24/11 11:50 AM, Morgan Kauffman wrote:

     If you're going to cover the vigilante/robin-hood aspect, I found this
     in today's sweeps: 
     http://arstechnica.com/business/news/2011/10/anonymous-takes-down-darknet-child-porn-site-on-tor-network.ars?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss
     and 
     http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2395175,00.asp#fbid=KvMufY_Mq3a

     They've got a sub-group that tries to hunt down child-abuse sites and
     users - last week they published a list of 1500 names of visitors to one
     site, in addition to performing a couple of DDoS attacks to the server.

     On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

       Link: themeData

       I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
       broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
       almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
       Reviewing their list of attacks
       (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of the
       cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the internet
       . The interesting thing when it comes to their interactions with the
       cartels is the dubious role they play: at the same time they can be
       fighting crime by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can
       also put lives in risk.

       However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by Anonymous.
       The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can conduct a cyber
       attack under \"Anonymous\" is worrisome.
       (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

       If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government websites,
       or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know more about these
       guys. Who they are? What are they interested in? How they operate? Who
       they have targeted so far? How can I defend myself from them? In what
       countries are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
       them to achieve any particular goal?

       On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can
         build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to
         innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing
         on journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the
         situation.  This has long term implications in not just Mexico. 
         They don't consider the consequences of their actions and they act
         without understanding the environment.  It was the same when they
         released information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
         Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
           possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
           Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by Anonymous,
           threatens revealing personal information on cartels as well as
           states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
           outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped.
           According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous
           Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers in
           Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although
           that is speculation.

           Link: themeData
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
           denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
           individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
           most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
           the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
           identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists
           who collude with criminal cartels. No mention of banks that accept
           their laundered money? That is when they would be a threat to
           their bottom line. They can always buy cabbies, cops, politicos
           and journos but tracing banks.  The hacker group demanded Los
           Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
           consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
           was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
           their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
           potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and
           hackers, presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
           lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting
           on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

           What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
           threat to Mexican cartels.
                o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
           media
                o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash
           out at cartels

           While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
           threat
                o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
           identifiable information on cartel members
                o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire
           on cartels
                o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
           communications, identifiable information on cartels members have
           to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                       Anonymous
                       o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
           illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

           Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
           ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result,
           their understanding of cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous
           may act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but
           this may blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even
           know the impact of any online assault of cartels.
                o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
           will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
           individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
           drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
           halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not
           have a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
           Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
           Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
           consequences from this.
                o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
           are willing to go protect their operations.
                   o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                   o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
           community before, coercing computer science majors into working
           for them.
                   o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
           discovering hackers within Mexico.

            

           On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

             Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
             there are several issues to address and fix here.

             These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
             discussion:

                  o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine
             but we can't gloss over that fact
                  o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
             between stealing bank records from government computers and
             overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                  o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
             information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
             kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
             talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
             politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
             going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
             killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
             operational details, because they acted as informants, because
             they exposed links with officials or because they somehow
             sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
             information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                  o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
             realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a
             measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity
             except for the technical ability by a very small number of its
             members to infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
             information. Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on
             a network that is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
             Where else could information be found? Government databases?
             Once we know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
             know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                  o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
             trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
             killings done by people who may not understand the difference
             between an anon hacker and a blogger.

             On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

               wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                   Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                   From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
               Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                     To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

               you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need
               a lot more work

               You need to lay out:

               a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
               section is unclear
               b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
               therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
               c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
               anything
               d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
               anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

               I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
               insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
               levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
               the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
               is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
               business online, in a protected fashion.

               Karen Hooper
               Latin America Analyst
               o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
               c: 512.750.7234
               STRATFOR
               www.stratfor.com
               On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

               On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Link: themeData

               Trigger

               Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
               lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
               denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
               released depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
               screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels.
               Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican? American?
               taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude
               with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
               release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
               The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels
               and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
               cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los
               Zetas leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
               little experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
               experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
               that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                

               In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
               mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
               their demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be
               mentioned right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
               threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so we
               understand who this guy is and why/how he was abducted. are
               not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
               information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
               will likely respond with violence against individuals revealed
               as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?.
               It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who
               collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving
               the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
               means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
               effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
               Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
               their threats against any individual using online media WC....
               you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers
               here. against the cartels.

                

               The Battle Space

               Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
               realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
               of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
               geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
               exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
               are physical people tho live in the real world. They have
               names and addresses - although most of them are likely outside
               of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their technical
               capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
               Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
               the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's
               population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
               what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
               Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
               revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run
               operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
               e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than
               the jihadists.)

               Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
               base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
               believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
               through the internet. This gives an opening for people
               disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
               dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience =
               troll. Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
               themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious IT
               capability. 

               The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
               been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

               The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US
               and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking
               to maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
               commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
               and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from
               insight. There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't
               have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
               amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels
               like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of
               threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel
               on cartel violence. While battling each other, cartels still
               face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
               avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
               have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
               bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok...
               but that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need
               to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't
               just assume they have no cyber presence.

                

               Anonymous' Weapons

               Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
               criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability
               to combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
               disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
               anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites
               in Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
               admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
               guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
               campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
               overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main
               stream media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
               to their operations, that they have continued to target
               journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
               Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
               the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
               denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
               here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

               As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
               risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to
               suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing information they
               threaten to release. By releasing identities of individuals
               cooperating with Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life
               of those individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
               sensitive information is limited by what is available via the
               Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
               should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
               However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
               governments computer networks, information available to
               Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire. 
               what are you trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                

               Cartel's Defense

                           A counter response to the video? by the cartels
               has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a
               kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun
               addressing the threat posed by hackers so... how has there not
               been a counter response? also this undermines your statements
               above about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
               underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How did
               they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very
               well give you some indication to the technical ability of the
               cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
               wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
               rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
               whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You
               can assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they are
               working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening
               cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
               information including locations is only available if a hacker
               chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy
               enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
               Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
               online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or
               start employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
               Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                           Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
               Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
               help of computer science majors through personal threats has
               been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported
               where?.  Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
               and drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of
               technical experts to help combat any threat by computer
               hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been
               demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of
               identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
               enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
               experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find
               hackers through investigations. A) How do you know they are
               not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm
               goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
               track down

                           In order to compete with an online foe, cartels
               will likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar
               with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
               operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they
               wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
               communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
               members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
               likely continue to be used to scare online media into
               submission i'm not really seeing the online
               media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
               manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
               hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life.
               Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of
               Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able to
               seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
               Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go on and
               shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

 --
 Sincerely,

 Marko Primorac
 Tactical Analyst
 marko.primorac@stratfor.com
 Tel: +1 512.744.4300
 Cell: +1 717.557.8480
","2011-10-24 18:59:47",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1002984_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","marko.primorac@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1003207,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   I agree. I haven't seen any defining attributes of Anonymous as a group.
   They may not even know the identities of each other. There are several
   facebook / twitter Anonymous pages, which seem to be run by different
   individuals.

   What about defining Anonymous in terms of the individual? Instead of
   saying Anonymous attacking cartels, Individuals acting under the Anonymous
   name....

   -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents have access to,
   and doubt they have such information that provides any sort of existential
   threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 
   This is a problem with the threat assessment. Technically, anything cartel
   related (emails, online transactions, Mexican LEA information, etc.) would
   be available to a hacker, but we don't know if they have had access to
   this information, or if the hackers interested in harming cartels are
   capable. It's not even confirmed hackers have revealing information on
   cartel supporters which the video claims.

   On 10/24/11 1:11 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They
     are a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
     online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do
     this in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people
     joining Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or
     something like that. 

     Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

     On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
       these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
       I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
       whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
       because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
       revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
       understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
       expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
       coercion.

       Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
       cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of
       el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication
       as a tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable
       intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels. That's a
       physical threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify
       that Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact
       to the cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival
       cartels or the GoM. They may release information on a given politician
       being linked to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the
       politician will feel an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a
       link, doesn't make it true). It would be up to others to take action. 
       I think the way you have it worded in the above sentence is good. 
       Follow with a sentence explaining the rest of it, because readers will
       have the same question Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat
       to cartels would come in what information anonymous could expose that
       is useful to their enemies'

       Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
       activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to
       conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how
       much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
       vulnerability I have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't
       have specific examples which could be used in assessing their
       vulnerability online.

       by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
       arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
       should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
       politicians as colluding.
       On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
         possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
         Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using
         the banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
         cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
         find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
         being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico
         and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
         posting flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the
         Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is
         good and will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a
         quick explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding
         something in the explaining the flyers will work]

         Link: themeData
         Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
         denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate
         websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
         statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
         depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
         October 10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold
         threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
         releasing identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they specify
         whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
          What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
         group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
         face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
         their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
         potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
         presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational
         criminal organization, it's not really unique.  Many such
         organizations do their crimes online, and have been hacked in
         response--like the nigerian princess scams. I think you should just
         say it's a unique threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out
         at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels
         dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
         threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a
         gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for
         the using publication as a tool to force government action. If you
         reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it against
         the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
         media
              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
         at cartels

         While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
         threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

                 -The threat is in the information they can expose that may
     be of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or
     other cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but
     i could imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the
     public).

              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
         identifiable information on cartel members 
              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
         cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
         section/paragraph]
              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
         identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
         the realm of possibilities for
                     Anonymous
                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
         illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels
         are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We
         don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
         operational vulnerability

        -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
     (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
     cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
     replaceable. 
                 -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents
     have access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any
     sort of existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

         Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
         world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that
         some of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to
         the violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is
         there are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems
         very possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have
         joined up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of
         cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other
         countries may act with confidence when sitting in front of a
         computer, but this may blind them to any possible retribution. They
         may not even know the impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the
         part below and above is written rather normatively.  We need to take
         that out.  just state the facts]
              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
         will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
         individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
         drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
         halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not have
         a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
         Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
         consequences from this. by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you
         mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens all
         the time.
              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
         are willing to go protect their operations.
                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                 o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
         community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
         them.
                 o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
         discovering hackers within Mexico.
         need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply
         publishing tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the
         same camp as the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that
         their damage will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can
         do--limited.  But maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are
         no longer challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

          

         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
           there are several issues to address and fix here.

           These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
           discussion:

                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
           we can't gloss over that fact
                o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
           between stealing bank records from government computers and
           overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
           information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
           kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
           politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
           going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
           killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
           operational details, because they acted as informants, because
           they exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied
           the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is
           damaging to the cartels themselves?
                o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
           realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure
           of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for
           the technical ability by a very small number of its members to
           infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information.
           Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that
           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
           information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
           of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
           consequences of dissemination.
                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
           back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings
           done by people who may not understand the difference between an
           anon hacker and a blogger.

           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                 From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
             Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                   To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

             you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
             lot more work

             You need to lay out:

             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
             is unclear
             b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
             therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
             d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
             who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

             I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
             insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
             levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
             the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
             is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
             business online, in a protected fashion.

             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
             c: 512.750.7234
             STRATFOR
             www.stratfor.com
             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             Link: themeData

             Trigger

             Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
             Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
             out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
             denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
             depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
             exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
             makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
             releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
             politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
             The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
             member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
             between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
             unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
             operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
             Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
             believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
             not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience
             with hackers.

              

             In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned
             as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
             demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned
             right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening
             to hit back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
             guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous'
             claims of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
             operations are true, cartels will likely respond with violence
             against individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you
             mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
             disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the
             GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
             don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
             Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
             against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
             continue their threats against any individual using online media
             WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about
             bloggers here. against the cartels.

              

             The Battle Space

             Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
             realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
             of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
             geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
             exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
             are physical people tho live in the real world. They have names
             and addresses - although most of them are likely outside of MX.)
              Anonymous' power base consists of their technical capabilities
             in hacking. Any information connected to the Internet is
             vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of
             individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population
             could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
             has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
             company with a website that brings in revenue, but it does not
             really matter if you don't run operations on the web. Los Z
             don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far less
             dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

             Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
             base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
             believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
             through the internet. This gives an opening for people
             disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
             dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
             Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
             themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious IT
             capability. 

             The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
             from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

             The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
             Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
             maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
             commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
             and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight.
             There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
             capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
             and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
             experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
             always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
             While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
             Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
             the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media
             outlets. Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to
             cover details of their operations. ok... but that's kind of a
             red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus on the
             possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
             have no cyber presence.

              

             Anonymous' Weapons

             Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
             criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
             combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
             disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
             anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites in
             Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
             admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
             guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
             campaign by technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
             should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream media
             outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
             operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
             bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed
             with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a
             blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce cartels
             on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
             really addressing the subheading

             As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
             risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
             Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
             release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
             Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
             individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
             information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
             Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
             considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
             compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
             networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence
             collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to
             say here? This isn't clear at all

              

             Cartel's Defense

                         A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
             yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
             member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
             threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
             response? also this undermines your statements above about how
             Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
             vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
             Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you
             some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
             Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
             cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed
             for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
             dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and
             we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
             disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can
             operate in any region of the world. Personal information
             including locations is only available if a hacker chooses to
             divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
             figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels
             are only capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can
             physically reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of
             their own under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
             Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                         Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
             Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
             help of computer science majors through personal threats has
             been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
             Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
             trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
             experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
             identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
             is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
             operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such
             as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources
             than cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations.
             A) How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
             kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are
             equally difficult to track down

                         In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
             likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with,
             brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
             operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they
             wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
             communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
             members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
             likely continue to be used to scare online media into submission
             i'm not really seeing the online media-international hacking
             group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
             inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
             encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel
             violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to be
             seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
             the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff
             and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
             inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 20:50:49",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1003207_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","tristan.reed@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1003423,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   Sean, just to be clear

   Your point is that Anonymous hasn't mattered?  Is your argument that
   hackers haven't mattered either?  because if Anonymous is a mob of hackers
   as you argue, how haven't they mattered to their targets?  what about all
   the money spent fighting them?  and as Tristan just pointed out - how
   about HBGary Federal?  He said the CEO's SSN and address were posted on
   Twitter.  What about all the sensitive emails that were lost?  We have no
   way of knowing what was in those emails, or how they are being used to
   make money at the expense of HBGary.  I have always agreed that they
   haven't reached a level of threat to the US, but that surely doesn't mean
   they won't.  And there are quite a few countries, organizations, and
   people below that rather high standard who could not withstand an attack,
   including an email purge of personal emails onto the web. 

   On 10/24/11 7:33 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
     the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
     only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
     responsible.

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
     responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
     intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
     just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
     indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
     department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

     Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

     Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
     SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication
     devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining
     computer network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while
     SIGINT may be used with other intelligence disciplines in order to
     identify a hacker, it is not necessary and is no more related than any
     other intel discipline. SIGINT could help you identify a computer
     devices (not the operator) emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis,
     which is also separate from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could
     help in providing methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT
     wouldn't obtain those messages.

     In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
     are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and
     technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

     NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
     technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
     resources in R&D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA.
     But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

     Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
     for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing
     operations on the scale of causing physical damage to extremely
     sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that
     matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most
     prolific example of a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted
     mainly outside of the cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of
     this doesn't matter? Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks
     have physically damaged secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think
     you are downplaying too much the significance of exposing corporate
     secrets, halting businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by
     defacing their websites.

     On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
           arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
           foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected?
           No, of course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so
           good to be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers. 
           I'm saying they are more detectable than you think.  There is no
           such thing as truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will
           that trail in every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but
           it can lead to a place, an organization, and often, an
           individual. 

           2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
           responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
           cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this
           case HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
           capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking
           hackers. NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers
           but it does not make it SIGINT.

           Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

           The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
           people assume there is no attribution because there is no
           response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
           this, because no attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes,
           they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for lack of
           response, then I think they are wrong. 

           3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
           laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
           involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way
           there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is
           one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to
           trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood
           with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more
           complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational
           surveillance, developing exploits, developing programs and code,
           gaining access, exploiting that, and carrying out an attack. 
           Discovering exploits and writing code can be done entirely
           offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel agencies.
           Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point of the
           exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point is,
           if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
           remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
           IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
           cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
           more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
           linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
           Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
           to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
           things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time
           for your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the
           target, a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur
           without network activity. Look at everything that went into
           Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person
           with a new laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small
           part of necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't
           think we are discussing operations on the scale of causing
           physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is
           an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so
           far has not mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
           evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
           possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation, that
           even the best law enforcement and national intelligence agencies
           have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that
           it's very difficult for someone to successfully use Anonymous as a
           cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute
           it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is effective in identifying
           hackers?I don't, but I'm confident they are far better than you
           are allowing for.    They may not choose to cover it if it is
           small scale crime, however. 
           On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
             cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
             that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
             with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
             the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from
             China, may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese
             government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
             government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate
             there is little capability to distinguish.

             It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
             operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets
             from SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual
             responsible for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have
             turned to SIGINT organizations for collections on computer
             related material, but this was due to the US being behind in
             cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
             However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of
             years.

             Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As
             an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go
             to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the
             online activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
             accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
             etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never
             use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
             description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible
             security cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

             Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
             these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied
             to specific computer-related activities because of the
             difficulty in identifying individuals.

             I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be blown,
             would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a
             common participant in \"Anonymous\" activities, was working for a
             State? Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that
             State agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter
             buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

             On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
               bit)

               1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
               actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't,
               but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first
               real case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
               people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
               as a serious or strategic threat. 

               2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
               actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as
               a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could
               probably still be attributed if important enough to those
               agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings this
               issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies they
               did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an
               publicized attacks in the past, even before they were carried
               out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
               sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
               coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted
               Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
               damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data
               security, but this is no different than the OC groups stealing
               your credit card information.  LE will go after them, have
               some success, but the threat is not that large. 
               On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                 Link: themeData

                 I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
                 have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
                 nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
                 threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
                 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                 most of the cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a Robin
                 Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when it comes
                 to their interactions with the cartels is the dubious role
                 they play: at the same time they can be fighting crime by
                 revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can also put
                 lives in risk.

                 However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
                 Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth,
                 can conduct a cyber attack under \"Anonymous\" is worrisome.
                 (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                 If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
                 websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
                 know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
                 interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
                 far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries
                 are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
                 them to achieve any particular goal?

                 On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                   everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                   doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                   caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on
                   journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding
                   of the situation.  This has long term implications in not
                   just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
                   their actions and they act without understanding the
                   environment.  It was the same when they released
                   information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
                   Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                     discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on
                     what type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The
                     video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
                     personal information on cartels as well as states a
                     member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
                     outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
                     kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous
                     Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be
                     an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
                     Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
                     speculation.

                     Link: themeData
                     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                     distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                     government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                     Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's criminal
                     cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
                     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
                     most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats
                     towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
                     releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
                     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
                     cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a
                     fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In
                     the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                     mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                     reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
                     member are not met. The potential of conflict between
                     Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a unique
                     threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at
                     online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on
                     cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

                     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                     security threat to Mexican cartels.
                          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                     exploit online media
                          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico
                     to lash out at cartels

                     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                     pose a threat
                          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to
                     possess identifiable information on cartel members
                          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous
                     could acquire on cartels
                          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                     communications, identifiable information on cartels
                     members have to be considered in the realm of
                     possibilities for
                                 Anonymous
                                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability
                     to reveal illicit online activity (child pornography
                     rings)

                     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                     ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                     result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                     limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
                     in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                     possible retribution. They may not even know the impact
                     of any online assault of cartels.
                          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                     journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                     understand some of these individuals are forced to
                     collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                     often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                     halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals
                     will not have a significant impact on cartel            
                           operations. Politicans have been accused of
                     working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor)
                     before, however there has yet to be any consequences
                     from this.
                          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                     extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                     operations.
                             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                     science community before, coercing computer science
                     majors into working for them.
                             o    This provides the cartels with the
                     possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                      

                     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                       idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                       here.

                       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern
                       with the discussion:

                            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                       that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                            o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a
                       difference between stealing bank records from
                       government computers and overloading www.loszetas.com
                       main page.
                            o     There's no thought out process of what sort
                       of information could anon have on the cartels. What
                       kind of info is kept online and accessible to
                       potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
                       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
                       politicians and businessmen who need to worry about
                       what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                       bloggers and media were killed in previous instances.
                       Was it because they revealed operational details,
                       because they acted as informants, because they exposed
                       links with officials or because they somehow sullied
                       the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                       information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                            o     Once you identify this info - think about
                       if anon can realistically access it and disseminate it
                       so it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have
                       any intelligence capacity except for the technical
                       ability by a very small number of its members to
                       infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
                       information. Now what kind of information would a
                       cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
                       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
                       information be found? Government databases? Once we
                       know what kind of information is accessible, we can
                       also know more about the consequences of
                       dissemination.
                            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                       Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                       risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may
                       not understand the difference between an anon hacker
                       and a blogger.

                       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                         -------- Original Message --------

                          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                             From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
                         Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                               To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

                         you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                         going to need a lot more work

                         You need to lay out:

                         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                         trigger section is unclear
                         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                         is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                         capabilities
                         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                         security anything
                         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                         kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                         their connections

                         I also just want to point out that we have
                         reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very
                         least has some significant levels of sophistication
                         in their online presence, to include the use of
                         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
                         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also
                         conduct business online, in a protected fashion.

                         Karen Hooper
                         Latin America Analyst
                         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                         c: 512.750.7234
                         STRATFOR
                         www.stratfor.com
                         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         Link: themeData

                         Trigger

                         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy,
                         hackers. Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group
                         famous for...?, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                         Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
                         criminal cartels, including a video released
                         depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
                         screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video
                         release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                         criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing
                         identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers,
                         police, politicians, and journalists who collude
                         with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los
                         Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
                         face consequences. The potential of conflict between
                         Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                         unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                         different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
                         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
                         little experience in handling. i believe that
                         Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
                         not believe for a second that the cartels have no
                         experience with hackers.

                          

                         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
                         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect
                         Anonymous' reaction if their demands of releasing a
                         kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
                         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
                         threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so
                         we understand who this guy is and why/how he was
                         abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of
                         possessing revealing information on cartel members
                         and operations are true, cartels will likely respond
                         with violence against individuals revealed as
                         opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
                         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure
                         of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force
                         the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat
                         complexity i don't understand what this means. You
                         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                         effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
                         against Anonymous remains unanswered . However,
                         cartels will continue their threats against any
                         individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
                         or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here.
                         against the cartels.

                          

                         The Battle Space

                         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                         separate realities from each other. Anonymous
                         operates solely in sphere of the computer networks.
                         Anonymous does not experience geographical
                         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
                         exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely
                         true. They are physical people tho live in the real
                         world. They have names and addresses - although most
                         of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                         base consists of their technical capabilities in
                         hacking. Any information connected to the Internet
                         is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
                         the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst
                         of Mexico's population could be quite difficult.
                          Remember that most of what Anonymous has done are
                         DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
                         company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                         it does not really matter if you don't run
                         operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money
                         via e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on
                         the web than the jihadists.)

                         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but
                         it's power base consists of the perceived anonymity
                         that its members believe themselves to have, real or
                         otherwise, by operating through the internet. This
                         gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
                         and everything to practice general dickery. As the
                         popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
                         Only a fraction of the large web of people who
                         identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of
                         serious IT capability. 

                         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so
                         far has been from targeted arrests by Law
                         Enforcement Agencies.

                         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the
                         streets in US and Mexican cities. They are run as a
                         business, always looking to maximize profits and
                         expand. But they are bricks and mortar commerce.
                         Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
                         and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that
                         from insight. There is no reason to assume that Los
                         Zetas don't have a similar capacity.  Their power
                         base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                         escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas,
                         are experienced in facing different types of
                         threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands
                         of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each
                         other, cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement
                         Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
                         the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted
                         media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
                         bloggers in order to cover details of their
                         operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng
                         for this discussion. You need to focus on the
                         possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just
                         assume they have no cyber presence.

                          

                         Anonymous' Weapons

                         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous'
                         actions against criminal cartels has yet to be seen.
                         Anonymous' only ability to combat cartels lay in
                         information operations, mainly disseminating
                         sensitive information on cartels and propagating
                         anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced
                         websites in Mexico you mean so far and that we know
                         of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The
                         significance of a targeted information operations
                         campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
                         overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels
                         view main stream media outlets and social media
                         blogs as such a threat to their operations, that
                         they have continued to target journalists and
                         bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas
                         was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly,
                         on the body of a blogger. The message threatened any
                         users who denounce cartels on blogging websites.
                         getting repetitive here, and it's not really
                         addressing the subheading

                         As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                         internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is
                         ample reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of
                         possessing information they threaten to release. By
                         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
                         Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of
                         those individuals. Anonymous's ability to
                         disseminate sensitive information is limited by what
                         is available via the Internet. Government computers
                         connected to the Internet should always be
                         considered a possibility of an attack. However, as
                         with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                         governments computer networks, information available
                         to Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy
                         to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This
                         isn't clear at all

                          

                         Cartel's Defense

                                     A counter response to the video? by the
                         cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                         claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest
                         Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
                         hackers so... how has there not been a counter
                         response? also this undermines your statements above
                         about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
                         underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
                         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The
                         answer to that could very well give you some
                         indication to the technical ability of the cartels .
                         As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
                         wide web , the cartels will face a number of
                         challenges which rarely are posed for them Again,
                         how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
                         dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can
                         assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they
                         are working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers
                         threatening cartels, can operate in any region of
                         the world. Personal information including locations
                         is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it
                         or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                         figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
                         Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with
                         their online enemy, if they can physically reach out
                         to them. Or start employing hackers of their own
                         under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
                         Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                                     Cartels have been known to coerce the
                         services of Mexican citizens with a technical
                         background. Recruiting the help of computer science
                         majors through personal threats has been reported in
                         the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
                         Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
                         and drug trafficking, they will likely need the
                         assistance of technical experts to help combat any
                         threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                         bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
                         is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any
                         hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
                         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more
                         technical experience and resources than cartels,
                         struggle to find hackers through investigations. A)
                         How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the
                         guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that
                         not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                                     In order to compete with an online foe,
                         cartels will likely continue counter tactics they
                         are most familiar with, brute force. Cartels are
                         still capable of their HUMINT operations within
                         Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't
                         be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
                         communities will likely be targeted and interrogated
                         by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
                         of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
                         online media into submission i'm not really seeing
                         the online media-international hacking group
                         connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                         inflict harm, is something computer hackers have
                         unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether
                         the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence
                         of Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels
                         are able to seek out and capture members of the
                         hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the
                         collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any
                         inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

               --

               Sean Noonan

               Tactical Analyst

               Office: +1 512-279-9479

               Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

               Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

               www.stratfor.com

           --

           Sean Noonan

           Tactical Analyst

           Office: +1 512-279-9479

           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

           www.stratfor.com

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
","2011-10-25 02:47:49",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1003423_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1003511,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   Yes, in response to your first question. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Colby Martin\" <colby.martin@stratfor.com>
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Monday, October 24, 2011 7:47:49 PM
   Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels

   Sean, just to be clear

   Your point is that Anonymous hasn't mattered?  Is your argument that
   hackers haven't mattered either?  because if Anonymous is a mob of hackers
   as you argue, how haven't they mattered to their targets?  what about all
   the money spent fighting them?  and as Tristan just pointed out - how
   about HBGary Federal?  He said the CEO's SSN and address were posted on
   Twitter.  What about all the sensitive emails that were lost?  We have no
   way of knowing what was in those emails, or how they are being used to
   make money at the expense of HBGary.  I have always agreed that they
   haven't reached a level of threat to the US, but that surely doesn't mean
   they won't.  And there are quite a few countries, organizations, and
   people below that rather high standard who could not withstand an attack,
   including an email purge of personal emails onto the web. 

   On 10/24/11 7:33 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
     the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
     only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
     responsible.

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
     responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
     intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
     just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
     indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
     department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

     Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

     Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
     SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication
     devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining
     computer network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while
     SIGINT may be used with other intelligence disciplines in order to
     identify a hacker, it is not necessary and is no more related than any
     other intel discipline. SIGINT could help you identify a computer
     devices (not the operator) emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis,
     which is also separate from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could
     help in providing methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT
     wouldn't obtain those messages.

     In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
     are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and
     technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

     NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
     technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
     resources in R&D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA.
     But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

     Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
     for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing
     operations on the scale of causing physical damage to extremely
     sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that
     matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most
     prolific example of a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted
     mainly outside of the cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of
     this doesn't matter? Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks
     have physically damaged secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think
     you are downplaying too much the significance of exposing corporate
     secrets, halting businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by
     defacing their websites.

     On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
           arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
           foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected?
           No, of course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so
           good to be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers. 
           I'm saying they are more detectable than you think.  There is no
           such thing as truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will
           that trail in every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but
           it can lead to a place, an organization, and often, an
           individual. 

           2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
           responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
           cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this
           case HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
           capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking
           hackers. NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers
           but it does not make it SIGINT.

           Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

           The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
           people assume there is no attribution because there is no
           response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
           this, because no attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes,
           they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for lack of
           response, then I think they are wrong. 

           3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
           laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
           involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way
           there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is
           one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to
           trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood
           with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more
           complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational
           surveillance, developing exploits, developing programs and code,
           gaining access, exploiting that, and carrying out an attack. 
           Discovering exploits and writing code can be done entirely
           offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel agencies.
           Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point of the
           exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point is,
           if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
           remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
           IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
           cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
           more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
           linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
           Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
           to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
           things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time
           for your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the
           target, a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur
           without network activity. Look at everything that went into
           Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person
           with a new laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small
           part of necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't
           think we are discussing operations on the scale of causing
           physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is
           an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so
           far has not mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
           evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
           possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation, that
           even the best law enforcement and national intelligence agencies
           have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that
           it's very difficult for someone to successfully use Anonymous as a
           cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute
           it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is effective in identifying
           hackers?I don't, but I'm confident they are far better than you
           are allowing for.    They may not choose to cover it if it is
           small scale crime, however. 
           On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
             cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
             that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
             with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
             the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from
             China, may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese
             government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
             government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate
             there is little capability to distinguish.

             It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
             operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets
             from SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual
             responsible for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have
             turned to SIGINT organizations for collections on computer
             related material, but this was due to the US being behind in
             cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
             However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of
             years.

             Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As
             an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go
             to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the
             online activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
             accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
             etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never
             use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
             description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible
             security cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

             Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
             these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied
             to specific computer-related activities because of the
             difficulty in identifying individuals.

             I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be blown,
             would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a
             common participant in \"Anonymous\" activities, was working for a
             State? Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that
             State agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter
             buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

             On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
               bit)

               1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
               actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't,
               but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first
               real case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
               people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
               as a serious or strategic threat. 

               2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
               actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as
               a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could
               probably still be attributed if important enough to those
               agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings this
               issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies they
               did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an
               publicized attacks in the past, even before they were carried
               out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
               sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
               coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted
               Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
               damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data
               security, but this is no different than the OC groups stealing
               your credit card information.  LE will go after them, have
               some success, but the threat is not that large. 
               On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                 I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
                 have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
                 nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
                 threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
                 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                 most of the cases, they are the a**gooda** guys, sort of a
                 Robin Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when it
                 comes to their interactions with the cartels is the dubious
                 role they play: at the same time they can be fighting crime
                 by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can also
                 put lives in risk.

                 However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
                 Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth,
                 can conduct a cyber attack under a**Anonymousa** is
                 worrisome.
                 (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                 If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
                 websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
                 know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
                 interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
                 far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries
                 are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
                 them to achieve any particular goal?

                 On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                   everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                   doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                   caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on
                   journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding
                   of the situation.  This has long term implications in not
                   just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
                   their actions and they act without understanding the
                   environment.  It was the same when they released
                   information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
                   Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                     discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on
                     what type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The
                     video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
                     personal information on cartels as well as states a
                     member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
                     outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
                     kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous
                     Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be
                     an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
                     Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
                     speculation.

                     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                     distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                     government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                     Internet with a statements denouncing Mexicoa**s
                     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
                     individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October
                     10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes
                     bold threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico.
                     Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
                     police, politicians, and journalists who collude with
                     criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
                     release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
                     consequences. In the Anonymousa** video, this coming
                     November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could expect
                     Anonymousa** reaction if their demands of releasing a
                     kidnapped member are not met. The potential of conflict
                     between Mexicoa**s criminal cartels and hackers,
                     presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of
                     cartels lashing out at online bloggers, but I havena**t
                     seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
                     from hackers before. 

                     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                         a*-c-    Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                     security threat to Mexican cartels.
                         a*-c-    Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                     exploit online media
                         a*-c-    Anonymous hackers do not have to be in
                     Mexico to lash out at cartels

                     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                     pose a threat
                         a*-c-    It is unknown if Anonymousa**s claims to
                     possess identifiable information on cartel members
                         a*-c-    It is unknown what information Anonymous
                     could acquire on cartels
                         a*-c-    Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                     communications, identifiable information on cartels
                     members have to be considered in the realm of
                     possibilities for
                                 Anonymous
                                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated ita**s
                     ability to reveal illicit online activity (child
                     pornography rings)

                     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                     ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                     result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                     limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
                     in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                     possible retribution. They may not even know the impact
                     of any online assault of cartels.
                         a*-c-    Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                     journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                     understand some of these individuals are forced to
                     collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                     often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                     halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals
                     will not have a significant impact on cartel            
                           operations. Politicans have been accused of
                     working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor)
                     before, however there has yet to be any consequences
                     from this.
                         a*-c-    Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                     extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                     operations.
                             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                     science community before, coercing computer science
                     majors into working for them.
                             o    This provides the cartels with the
                     possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                      

                     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                       idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                       here.

                       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern
                       with the discussion:

                           a*-c-    we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                       that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                           a*-c-    \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a
                       difference between stealing bank records from
                       government computers and overloading www.loszetas.com
                       main page.
                           a*-c-    There's no thought out process of what
                       sort of information could anon have on the cartels.
                       What kind of info is kept online and accessible to
                       potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
                       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
                       politicians and businessmen who need to worry about
                       what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                       bloggers and media were killed in previous instances.
                       Was it because they revealed operational details,
                       because they acted as informants, because they exposed
                       links with officials or because they somehow sullied
                       the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                       information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                           a*-c-    Once you identify this info - think about
                       if anon can realistically access it and disseminate it
                       so it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have
                       any intelligence capacity except for the technical
                       ability by a very small number of its members to
                       infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
                       information. Now what kind of information would a
                       cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
                       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
                       information be found? Government databases? Once we
                       know what kind of information is accessible, we can
                       also know more about the consequences of
                       dissemination.
                           a*-c-    What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                       Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                       risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may
                       not understand the difference between an anon hacker
                       and a blogger.

                       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                         -------- Original Message --------

                          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                             From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
                         Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                               To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

                         you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                         going to need a lot more work

                         You need to lay out:

                         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                         trigger section is unclear
                         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                         is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                         capabilities
                         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                         security anything
                         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                         kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                         their connections

                         I also just want to point out that we have
                         reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very
                         least has some significant levels of sophistication
                         in their online presence, to include the use of
                         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
                         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also
                         conduct business online, in a protected fashion.

                         Karen Hooper
                         Latin America Analyst
                         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                         c: 512.750.7234
                         STRATFOR
                         www.stratfor.com
                         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         --
                         Sean Noonan
                         Tactical Analyst
                         Office: +1 512-279-9479
                         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
                         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
                         www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-25 03:18:15",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1003511_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1004860,"Re: anybody have questions for former Spanish PM Aznar
","   Uh, how about a party for stratfor in his (or one of his friends')
   mediterranean villa?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Wilson <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
   Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 16 Nov 2010 15:32:32 -0600
   To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: anybody have questions for former Spanish PM Aznar
   can i crash on his couch?

   On 11/16/10 3:26 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     can you just tell him \"good call on blaming ETA\" for me?

     On 11/16/10 3:18 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

       he's teaching our class today

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
","2010-11-16 22:33:58",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1004860_re-anybody-have-questions-for-former-spanish-pm-aznar-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1006351,"Re: Former Spanish PM Azner
","   At least 20 camps? Pretty impressive. That's more than I've seen in OS,
   where so far all they've been focusing on is the Guasdalito camp where
   Cubillas was allegedly at, but it's quite possible all those former
   etarras are spread out all over the place. I would he's a lot more open
   about heaping criticisms on Chavez since I heard him speak at Trinity back
   in 2004, where he referred to him as \"an interesting man.\" My brother has
   a picture of himself with Aznar at that event. Every time I look at it I
   really do think, it's always his hair that I notice.....

   -----------------
   Reginald Thompson

   Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741

   OSINT
   Stratfor

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 16, 2010 5:26:21 PM
   Subject: Former Spanish PM Azner

   Wow, SeA+-or presidente is hardcore.. Way more extreme than even the  
   Israeli officials I've heard speak. He honestly believes that all  
   terrorists are the same and that nothing short of total war can defeat  
   them. He is adamantly against any kind of negotiation with terrorists  
   and criticizes France, Germany and others heavily in this regard. He  
   attributes French and German \"weakness\" on counterterrorism to their  
   larger Muslim populations. He said OBL's statement on retaking Andaluz  
   is all he heard and the Germans and French just didn't get it. He says  
   poverty has zero connection to terrorism and that developmental aid  
   policies are useless. On ETA, he said the ceasefires are just time  
   buying measures, nothing more. In Catalonia he says the regional govt  
   encourages Muslim immigration from Pakistan, Algeria, etc because they  
   can more easily linguistically integrate them as opposed to Spanish-
   speaking immigrants. This is also where the most radical imams are in  
   the country. He also said ETA has at least 20 camps in Venezuela and  
   ggat farc and eta work with each other in training l, weapons, etc.

   Overall, he's very ideological and hardline. Good reminder of the  
   personal role in poltics (though he also paid for that and is  
   embarassed by his loss)

   Also, great hair.

   Sent from my iPhone
","2010-11-17 00:35:40",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1006351_re-former-spanish-pm-azner-.html","reginald.thompson@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1009016,"[alpha] Occupy Wall Street (DHS analysis)
","3","2011-10-25 18:04:51",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1009016_-alpha-occupy-wall-street-dhs-analysis-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com","attach/13/13637_DHS IP Special.pdf"
1009309,"Re: Research Request - Europe/MIL - Fighter Jet Market
","   Here is my summary of Gripen and its place in Saab.  More information is
   in the attached document.

   Military aeronautics sales account for 9,183 million Swedish Kroners
   (about 1.3 billion dollars), or about 38% of Saab's total business, and
   Gripen fighters are the core of this.  Gripen has sold a total of about 50
   aircraft overseas since it started production in the mid 90's.  The
   company has made a big push for large sales in Brazil and India, and
   without one or both of these contracts coming through it seems unlikely
   that Gripen will continue as a major player past 2012.  The Gripen NG is
   the newest model, and has yet to find a buyer.  The JSF and Eurofighter
   have too much of the market claimed between them, and the natural clients
   for the Gripen fighters, second-tier powers looking to upgrade their air
   capabilities, are mostly facing financial constraints. When Norway and the
   Netherlands chose the JSF in the last year it was a big blow to Gripen. 
   The following Bloomberg article is an excellent summary of their problems:
   http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&tkr=BA:US&sid=a48CogGIxMy0

   Marko Papic wrote:

     Yeah... the \"born of jets\" is just a tag line ;)

     ----- Original Message -----
     From: \"Nate Hughes\" <hughes@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
     Cc: \"Kristen Cooper\" <kristen.cooper@stratfor.com>, \"Rami Naser\"
     <rami.naser@stratfor.com>, \"Matthew Powers\"
     <matthew.powers@stratfor.com>, \"Antonia Colibasanu\"
     <colibasanu@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 1:56:43 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
     Central
     Subject: Re: Research Request - Europe/MIL - Fighter Jet Market

     heh. then we need a first look at Saab the corporate entity. Ignore any
     news about the automotive arm.

     Marko Papic wrote:

       Saab has not owned the car wing since 1990.

       ----- Original Message -----
       From: \"Nate Hughes\" <hughes@stratfor.com>
       To: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
       Cc: \"Kristen Cooper\" <kristen.cooper@stratfor.com>, \"Rami Naser\"
       <rami.naser@stratfor.com>, \"Matthew Powers\"
       <matthew.powers@stratfor.com>, \"Antonia Colibasanu\"
       <colibasanu@stratfor.com>
       Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 1:45:38 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
       Central
       Subject: Re: Research Request - Europe/MIL - Fighter Jet Market

       Let's take a closer look at Saab as a corporate entity. Did GM just
       own the Saab car brand/the automotive arm of Saab? Saab's automotive
       troubles are just one element of Saab as an industrial entity, just
       like the Gripen is. Let's map it out and get a sense of the
       overarching corporate status of Saab as an entity.

       Marko Papic wrote:

         Thanks guys... I will hit you up with questions if I have them.

         I am going to do the piece on Gripen then, probably for tmrw.

         ----- Original Message -----
         From: \"Kristen Cooper\" <kristen.cooper@stratfor.com>
         To: \"Nate Hughes\" <hughes@stratfor.com>
         Cc: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>, \"Rami Naser\"
         <rami.naser@stratfor.com>, \"Matthew Powers\"
         <matthew.powers@stratfor.com>, \"Antonia Colibasanu\"
         <colibasanu@stratfor.com>
         Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 1:09:38 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
         Central
         Subject: Re: Research Request - Europe/MIL - Fighter Jet Market

         nate and marko - attached and below is the research on the first
         tranche of questions. Much thanks to Antonia, Matthew and Rami for
         helping pull info on this.

         Matthew is currently looking into the specifics of each company as
         requested in the second part of the research and Rami is taking the
         more detailed look into the global fighter jet market.

         hit me up with any questions - kristen

         Contents

         i. Details of proposed price, technology transfer and indigenous
         production

         a. France - Dassault Aviationn SA's (AM.FR)

                     b. US - Boeing Co. (BA) F-18

                     c. Sweden - Saab Gripen NG

         ii. Saab's economic situation

         iii. Gripen sales and tenders

                     a. Gripen NG tenders

                     b. Gripens in service

          

          

          

         Brazil's Embraer is looking to purchase 36 fighter planes under the
         country's proposed FX-2 program.

          

         i. Three Potential Deals:

          

         a. France - Dassault Aviationn SA's (AM.FR)

          

           o Deal for 36 Rafale fighters
           o est. pricing ranges from $82 to $130 million price per unit (not
             including weapons and support)
                o ~$4 to 7 billion for aircraft sales alone - est. $10
                  billion in total sale
           o Sept. 10 - a Brazilian official speaking to AFP on condition of
             anonymity said Sarkozy wrote to da Silva promising \"unrestricted
             access to technology\" in the Dassault offer - this statement
             prompted issuing of similar statements by both US and Saab
             representatives
           o Sept. 29 - According to statement by Embraer's VP, Rafales deal
             woud be for \"flight-ready planes\" (limiting local industry
             participation)

          

          

         Rafale Fighter Deal:

           o Sept. 8 - France has struck a landmark outline accord to sell 36
             Rafale fighters for between four and seven billion dollars to
             Brazil, potentially the first foreign customer for the expensive
             jet, officials said.
           o A Dassault spokesman said the company hopes to finalize the sale
             in 2010
           o Throughout its tender process, Brazil has emphasized that full
             technology-sharing took priority over cost.

          

         French-Brazil Strategic Relationship:

           o Lula said that his country wanted closer military ties with
             France. \"We are definitively consolidating a strategic
             partnership we started in 2005,\" Lula said in a joint news
             conference with Sarkozy in Brasilia.
           o The deal adds to 10 billion dollars' worth of agreements Brazil
             has already struck with France to buy five submarines (one to be
             converted to nuclear power) and 50 military transport
             helicopters.
           o Brazil's only aircraft carrier is a mothballed vessel bought
             from France in 2000.
           o France is also to buy about 10 military transport aircraft
             Brazil's air force plans to build with Embraer, the national
             aircraft manufacturer.
           o The military transport planes that Brazil is selling, the
             KC-390, are designed to carry lighter loads than the delayed
             Airbus A400 heavy military transport plane France is committed
             to.

          

          

         French Company:

           o France would back Dassault Aviation's bid for the contract to
             build 36 fighter planes for Brazil's air force, the official
             said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of palace
             rules.
           o The deal would be key for Dassault, which has not yet had a
             foreign buyer for its Rafale.
           o The Rafale is one of three planes in competition for the
             Brazilian contract, along with Chicago-based Boeing's F-18 Super
             Hornet and Saab's Gripen NG.
           o French daily Le Monde, which participated in the interview,
             quoted the Brazilian leader as suggesting the French bid had a
             \"comparative advantage\" over those of its rivals.

          

         Brazil's Request:

           o Brazil's air force has not given a price tag for the 36 jets,
             which it hopes to have delivered by 2014. The total number of
             jets ordered could also increase up to 100.
           o Agencia Estado news service said it could be between $2.2
             billion and $2.5billion.

          

          

         b. US - Boeing Co. (BA) F-18

           o Aug. 10 - Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) notifies
             Congress of potential sale to Government of Brazil including:

         .        28  F/A-18E Super Hornet Aircraft

         .        8    F/A-18F Super Hornet Aircraft

         .        72  F414-GE-400 installed engines

         .        host of spare parts and munitions

          

         Estimated value of total sale = $7 billion

         ~ $90 million per unit for the F/A-18s

          

           o Sept. 9 - US Embassy in Brazil issues statement:

          

              o US govt. has issued a final approval on transfer of \"all
                necessary and advanced technologies associated with the U.S.
                Government's offer of the F/A-18 Super Hornet\"

          

              o \"Boeing's multi-billion dollar offset package to be invested
                directly into the Brazilian aerospace industry will transfer
                technology related to military design and production, provide
                autonomy in key areas of program support, and develop a broad
                Brazilian aerospace industry beyond just fighter aircraft,
                through direct involvement with the world's largest aerospace
                company.\"

          

         *Note: the US government's notification to Congress of a possible
         sale to Brazil of F-18s states that \"offsets agreements associated
         with this proposed sale are expected,\" it does not mention either
         advanced technology transfer or local assembly, as claimed in the
         statement made by the US Embassy in Brazil.

          

          

          

         c. Sweden - Saab Gripen NG

          

           o Tender for 36 Gripen NGs

         ~ $60 million per unit

          

           o Sept. 29 - According to a statement from Embraer's VP, Saab is
             offering a \"pre-production deal giving Brazil opportunity to
             develop from scratch-knowledge of the plane\" - and that the NGs
             would have \"important locally produced components\" - and the
             development of the jet would bring \"important technological
             benefits\"

          

          

         From Saab's NG tender proposal to Brazil -

          

          - Transfer of Technology

         The Transfer of Technology (ToT) programme will guarantee full
         involvement in future capability development and maximize Brazilian
         industrial autonomy through the transfer of unique and highly
         advanced competencies.

         The ToT will include:

           o Design, development and integration of hardware, avionics,
             software and systems on the Gripen NG
           o Transfer of Advanced Technologies and key High-Tech competencies
             for example Sensor Fusion, Low-Observability (LO) and Stealth.

         Saab guarantees unrivalled access to all levels of technology,
         including full access to Gripen NG source codes.

          - Offset

         The proposal will deliver Offset equal to the contract value. The
         Offset programme will transfer unique and advanced technologies and
         know-how to appropriate Brazilian industrial and institutional
         parties with the objective of developing national capabilities.

         - Support solution

         The logistics concept is designed to meet the requirements of
         the Brazilian Air Force and makes maximum usage of existing
         Brazilian infrastructure.

         The training programme utilizes the existing infra-structure
         together with synthetic training aids and the Gripen system in order
         to maximize the training benefit.

         - Partnership

         COMAER and Brazilian industry would become partners with the Swedish
         Air Force and Saab in the design, development and integration of
         future technology programmes for the Gripen NG.

         Early Brazilian involvement in the Gripen NG design and development
         will give the Brazilian Air Force and industry unrivalled access to
         all levels of technology now and for the future.

         *Note: According to a recent interview with Jane's analyst, Craig
         Cafferty -

         \"While Saab could offer good industrial participation and
         technology, \"some of the key components included in the Gripen NG
         such as the engine and AESA radar are not made by Saab or a Swedish
         company thereby making full technology transfer impossible.\"

         The Gripen's engine is made by US company General Electric, and
         therefore subject to US export controls, while the advanced
         active-array, multi-targeting radar is made by Italian firm Selex.\"

          

          

          

         ii. Saab's economic situation

          

         1.      Saab - Gripen history (not nec related, but just in case you
         need it) - see here:
         http://www.gripen.com/en/GripenFighter/TheGripenFighter.htm

         2.      Saab problems starting in 2008: GM decided to sell Saab this
         year due to financial problems. They are still in talks and there is
         certain that there is pressure on the future of Saab... with all
         that it can mean for its financial stability. The Swedish government
         has announced (Jan. 2009) plans to provide up to $3.19 billion in
         credit guarantees and emergency loans to Saab and Volvo, which Ford
         Motor Co. put up for sale last month in a bid to raise additional
         funds. (http://www.thelocal.se/16808/20090109/) That's all I could
         find on the guarantees part.

         Last details on the deal:

           o The buy-out of Saab Automobile by the Koenigsegg Group hangs in
             the balance after co-owner Baard Eker states the company could
             withdraw if business is not concluded in the next few days.
             According to an article in business daily Dagens Industri the
             deal is at risk of caving in. \"If things aren't in place by
             September 30, then we are out,\" Eker told Norwegian newspaper
             Dagens Naeringsliv. They include negotiations with the European
             Investment Bank (EIB) over a loan of around four billion Swedish
             crowns as well as discussions with Sweden's National Debt Office
             (Riksga:lden) to secure the EIB loan. Saab intend to use the
             money to develop new technology in the areas of environment and
             security. - http://www.thelocal.se/22312/20090926/
           o GM has agreed to put money in to assure it gets rid of Saab -
             http://www.thelocal.se/22098/20090915/
           o In August GM talked about the sale to Koenigsegg Group. But the
             problem is that Koenigsegg must prepare for 4 billion kronor or
             500 million dollars to take over. The report says that Beijing
             Automotive Industry Holdings, BAIC has written a letter of
             memorandum with Koenigsegg to become a small owner with capital.
              http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90884/6755109.html

          

         Figures:

         With the collapse of the auto market, it has become a particularly
         weak division, selling less than 94,000 cars in 2008, down from a
         peak of 133,000 in 2006.
         http://gm-volt.com/2009/02/20/saab-becomes-independent-from-gm-and-declares-bankruptcy/

         Under GM's stewardship, Saab rarely posted a profit and last year
         lost 3.0 billion kronor ($496.9 million at the time).

         Saab's financial woes eased a bit Jan. 17 when a Swedish court
         approved an application to write down 75 percent of the automaker's
         debts -- previously some 10 billion kronor.
         http://www.asiaone.com/Motoring/News/Story/A1Story20090618-149231.html

          

         Nice talk on how sweet Saab is if it gets the deal:

         \"The Swedish government and the Saab motor company are 100 percent
         committed to making the technology transfer,\" Swedish State
         Secretary for Defense Haakan Jevrell said at a press conference,
         accompanied by a Saab representative.
         (http://www.thelocal.se/22150/20090918/)

          

          

         iii. Gripen NG Sales

          

         a. It appears that no nation has purchased the Gripen NG model since
         Saab began trying to make sales in 2008.

         :

         As of early 2009, Saab claims to have Gripen tenders for:

         - Denmark

         - India

         - Romania

         - Brazil

         - Switzerland

          

         In addition, Saab has responded to requests for information from
         Bulgaria, Croatia, and the Netherlands.

          

          

         The Gripen NG was being considered by the Netherlands and Norway,
         but these nations have elected to go with the JSF.

          

         Denmark is still considering an offer for the Gripen NG.

          

         Gripen NG's are being considered for a huge purchase by the Indian
         airforce (100+ aircraft), but no decision is likely for some time.

          

         Brazil is the only other country that is currently considering the
         NG.

         a. Gripens currently in service:

          

         Gripen is in service with the Swedish, Czech Republic, Hungarian and
         South African Air Forces and has also been ordered by Thailand. The
         UK Empire Test Pilots' School (ETPS) is also operating Gripen as its
         advanced fast jet platform for test pilots worldwide.

           o Gripen was declared operational in the Swedish Air Force in
             1997, and 204 aircraft, including 28 two seaters, have been
             delivered.

          

           o Gripen is in full operational service with the Czech Republic
             Air Force, which has taken delivery of all of its 14 aircraft
             (12 single-seat and 2 two-seaters) to meet its national,
             European and NATO defence needs.

          

           o Gripen is also in full operational service with the Hungarian
             Air Force, which has taken delivery of all of its 14 aircraft
             (12 single-seat and 2 two-seaters) to meet its national,
             European and NATO needs.

          

           o South Africa, Gripen's first export customer, has ordered a
             fleet of 26 aircraft (9 two-seat and 17 single seat aircraft) to
             replace its existing front-line aircraft. Deliveries started in
             2008 and will be completed by 2012.

          

           o The United Kingdom's (UK) Empire Test Pilots' School (ETPS) is
             also operating Gripen as its advanced fast jet platform for test
             pilots worldwide.

          

           o In October 2007, the government of Thailand approved the
             procurement of Gripen fighters to replace the Royal Thai Air
             Force's ageing F-5 fleet, and in February 2008 Thailand and
             Sweden signed contracts for the supply of the initial six Gripen
             aircraft for the Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF) with aircraft
             delivered during 2011.

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

          

                                    Sources:

                              Gripen NG for Brazil

         Gripen offers Brazil a complete solution. Gripen NG is the world's
         most technologically advanced multi-role fighter aircraft with built
         in Net centric warfare (NCW) technologies and capabilities developed
         specifically for Brazil.

          

         The Gripen NG for Brazil in short:

           o A powerful and proven engine
           o AESA radar
           o Advanced Communication systems
           o Tactical Data Link
           o Supercruise
           o Advanced Electronic warfare
           o Strategic reach
           o Advanced Weapons Capacity

Why Brazil should choose Gripen

           o Gripen NG is the world's most technologically advanced
             multi-role fighter aircraft with built in Net centric warfare
             (NCW) technologies and capabilities developed specifically for
             Brazil.
           o Gripen will meet or exceed every operational requirement raised
             by the Brazilian Air Force in all roles - Air to Air Fighter
             BVR/WVR, Air to Surface land and sea, and recce.
           o Gripen will provide exceptional autonomous multi and swing role
             capability in normal and hostile FOB operations, and act as a
             perfect force multiplier.
           o Gripen will, over life, have a substantially lower real Life
             Cycle Cost than its nearest single engined competitor, and is
             able to operate at a fraction of the cost of its twin engined
             competitors.
           o Gripen NG is the only option for Brazil delivering next
             generation technical and military capabilities.
           o Gripen NG will allow Brazil to become a significant partner in
             the development programme and become a platform for future
             technology programmes.
           o In combination with the Industrial Cooperation program, Gripen's
             program for FAB, Brazilian Defence and industrial establishment
             will make Brazil by 2020 completely independent of the need to
             purchase combat aircraft from other countries and make it an
             exporter of aircraft like Sweden.

          

Operational capability

         As a Next Generation multi-role fighter Gripen NG has the
         operational range, payload and built-in Net Centric Warfare (NCW)
         capability to meet all the roles as defined by the Brazilian Air
         Force; both national and regional expeditionary. Brazil's NCW
         capability will be significantly enhanced by operating the Gripen NG
         in combination with the Embraer E-99 ERIEYE system.

Advanced Weapons System

         Gripen NG has a fully integrated sensor suite with total weapon
         flexibility and is able to carry weapons sourced from suppliers
         worldwide. Survivability is assured through a balance between low
         radar, Infra-Red and visible signatures and a highly advanced
         modular Electronic Warfare and Self-Protection system.

Support solution

         The logistics concept is designed to meet the requirements of
         the Brazilian Air Force and makes maximum usage of existing
         Brazilian infrastructure.

         The training programme utilizes the existing infra-structure
         together with synthetic training aids and the Gripen system in order
         to maximize the training benefit.

Partnership

         COMAER and Brazilian industry would become partners with the Swedish
         Air Force and Saab in the design, development and integration of
         future technology programmes for the Gripen NG.

         Early Brazilian involvement in the Gripen NG design and development
         will give the Brazilian Air Force and industry unrivalled access to
         all levels of technology now and for the future.

Offset

         The proposal will deliver Offset equal to the contract value. The
         Offset programme will transfer unique and advanced technologies and
         know-how to appropriate Brazilian industrial and institutional
         parties with the objective of developing national capabilities.

Production and Maintenance

         The commitment to Brazilian aerospace includes the option for
         manufacturing of Gripen NG parts and assemblies and Gripen NG Final
         assembly in Brazil.

         The maintenance concept is tailored to meet the requirements and
         capabilities of the Brazilian Industry and the FAB through:

           o Establishment of a Gripen NG maintenance centre in
             Brazil ensuring national autonomy
           o Extensive usage of existing Brazilian infra-structure securing
             cost savings and ensuring commonality

Transfer of Technology

         The Transfer of Technology (ToT) programme will guarantee full
         involvement in future capability development and maximize Brazilian
         industrial autonomy through the transfer of unique and highly
         advanced competencies.

         The ToT will include:

           o Design, development and integration of hardware, avionics,
             software and systems on the Gripen NG
           o Transfer of Advanced Technologies and key High-Tech competencies
             for example Sensor Fusion, Low-Observability (LO) and Stealth.

         Saab guarantees unrivalled access to all levels of technology,
         including full access to Gripen NG source codes.

Continued Enhancement

         Gripen Next Generation (NG) is a considerably enhanced version of
         the already proven and in-service Gripen C/D multi-role fighter.

         Designed for combat in the 21st Century Net Centric Warfare (NCW)
         environment Gripen's flexible and modular design makes continuous
         development and enhancement both low risk and cost effective. The
         Gripen NG programme covers development of all major sensors and
         avionics including data communication, self-protection systems,
         weapons integration, as well as airframe and propulsion
         enhancements.

Continued Growth

         Gripen NG is a 'low risk' platform with a funded ongoing development
         programme and guaranteed enhancements. The Gripen NG has substantial
         growth capability which will ensure that Gripen NG meets all future
         requirements.

          

          

          

         US Deal

          

          

          

         Brazil - F/A-18E/F Super Hornet Aircraft  
         (Source: US Defense Security Cooperation Agency; dated Aug. 6,
         web-posted Aug. 10, 2009)
          
           WASHINGTON --- Today the Defense Security Cooperation Agency
         (DSCA) notified Congress of a possible Foreign Military Sale to the
         Government of Brazil of 28 F/A-18E Super Hornet Aircraft, eight
         F/A-18F Super Hornet Aircraft, 72 F414-GE-400 installed engines, a
         host of spare parts and munitions at an estimated value of $7.0
         billion.

         The Government of Brazil has requested proposals from several
         foreign suppliers, including the United States, to provide the next
         generation fighter for the Brazilian Air Force. In this \"FX-2\"
         competition, the Government of Brazil has yet to select the United
         States Navy-Boeing proposal.

         This notification is being made in advance of receipt of a letter of
         request so that, in the event that the US Navy-Boeing proposal is
         selected, the United States might move as quickly as possible to
         implement the sale.

         If the Government of Brazil selects the U.S. Navy-Boeing proposal,
         the Government of Brazil will request a possible sale of:

         -- 28 F/A-18E Super Hornet Aircraft,
         -- eight F/A-18F Super Hornet Aircraft,
         -- 72 F414-GE-400 installed engines,
         -- four F414-GE-400 spare engines,
         -- 36 AN/APG-79 Radar Systems,
         -- 36 M61A2 20mm Gun Systems,
         -- 36 AN/ALR-67(V) three Radar Warning Receivers,
         -- 144 LAU-127 Launchers,
         -- 44 Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing Systems (JHMCS),
         -- 28 AIM-120C-7 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM),
         -- 28 AIM-9M Sidewinder Missiles,
         -- 60 GBU-31/32 Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM),
         -- 36 AGM-154 Joint Standoff Weapons (JSOW),
         -- 10 AGM-88B HARM Missiles, and
         -- 36 AN/ASQ-228 (V2) Advanced Targeting Forward-Looking Infrared
         (ATFLIR) Pods.

         Also included are 36 AN/ALQ-214 Radio Frequency Countermeasures. 40
         AN/ALE-47 Electronic Warfare Countermeasures Systems, 112 AN/ALE-50
         Towed Decoys, Joint Mission Planning System, support equipment,
         spare and repair parts, personnel training and training equipment,
         ferry and tanker support, flight test, software support,
         publications and technical documents, U.S. Government and contractor
         engineering, technical and logistics support services, and other
         related elements of logistics and program support.

         This proposed sale will contribute to the foreign policy and
         national security of the United States by helping to improve the
         security of a friendly country that has been, and continues to be,
         an important force for political stability and economic progress in
         South America.

         Brazil needs these aircraft to meet current and future threats. The
         proposed sale of F/A-18E/F aircraft will enhance Brazil's tactical
         aviation capabilities. An increase in capability will be accrued
         primarily due to the larger number of aircraft and the larger range
         and endurance of the F/A-18E/F. Brazil will have no difficulty
         absorbing these aircraft into its aircraft inventory. The proposed
         sale of this equipment and support will not alter the basic military
         balance in the region.

         The principal contractors will be:
         --The Boeing Company St. Louis, Mo.
         --General Electric Aircraft Engines Lynn, Mass.
         --Northrop Grumman Corporation El Segundo, Calif.
         --Raytheon Corporation El Segundo, Calif.
         --Lockheed Martin Bethesda, Md.

         Offsets agreements associated with this proposed sale are expected;
         however, specific agreements are undetermined and will be defined
         during negotiations between the purchaser and contractor.

         Implementation of this sale will require approximately eight
         contractor representatives to provide technical and logistics
         support in Brazil for two years. U.S. Government and contractor
         representatives will also participate in program management and
         technical reviews for one-week intervals twice semi-annually.

         There will be no adverse impact on U.S. defense readiness as a
         result of this proposed sale.

         This notice of a potential sale is required by law and does not mean
         the sale has been concluded.

         -ends-

         Nate Hughes wrote:

           Rami can take the lead on this, but we've got a few things on his
           plate today and Marko was hoping to get this rolling ASAP. The
           priority is the first tranche of questions for the initial Gripen
           piece.

           First, for the Gripen piece:
             * A clear understanding of the three offerings before Brazil:
                  * What has each offered specifically in terms of price,
                    tech transfer and indigenous assembly/production (not all
                    may be available, but we need to know what's out there --
                    particularly the price drop of the Gripen and price point
                    of the Rafale)
             * Just how dire/desperate is Saab? Are they trying to secure the
               deal in order to secure the deal? Or are they in more dire
               straits than that?
             * Any other takers for the NG? Even follow-on orders or for
               upgrades?
             * What has Saab managed to sell of the Gripen NGs thus far?
           Overall:
             * A careful look at each company in turn. Obviously we're
               starting with Saab. Dassault next, since I think the Rafale
               may be in worse shape than the Gripen. Eurofighter is the most
               coherent of the three at this point, I believe. For each:
                  * brief history of genesis of the program, and the business
                    case for it -- how many was each intending to sell to the
                    primary customer and how many were intended to be sold
                    abroad?
                  * In particular, what was the scheme and why did it fail?
                    For example, the Gripen was specifically designed as a
                    low cost, and low-life cycle-cost alternative to the
                    other designs on the market. Supposed to be a solid
                    plane. Certainly not competing directly with the Joint
                    Strike Fighter. What gives?
                  * Let's get a key sense of exactly where each fighter was
                    supposed to be sold... country by country. Marko can then
                    quickly lay out the macroeconomics of why country X or Y
                    could no longer afford this or that fighter.
                  * Key export agreements/failures to secure them. Timeline
                    for each. (I want to be careful about correlation of the
                    Iraq war with the sales of the Gripen. Even if they
                    correlate, that doesn't mean causation necessarily. Let's
                    get dates but also look at the production schedule for
                    the Gripen)
             * Might be good to get a bit of a sense of the evolution of the
               global fighter jet market as a whole, so we can fit European
               efforts in with American and Russian efforts.
             * Can we get a sense of all NEW Jet Fighter orders from 2000
               onwards? I am making 2000 up as arbitrary number... but it
               would be good to get a really detailed excel worksheet going
               with ALL fighter jet sales. Let's concentrate first on NEW
               fighters, not repurchased, since that will make things easier
               and we can decide if we need repurchased later. There has to
               be a study out there on this.
             * Let's see if we can't dig up some analysis of this situation.
               We're not the first to contemplate this. What are industry
               rags and European circles saying about it?
           --
           Nathan Hughes
           Director of Military Analysis
           STRATFOR
           512.744.4300 ext. 4097
           nathan.hughes@stratfor.com

 --
 Kristen Cooper
 Researcher
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com
 512.744.4093 - office
 512.619.9414 - cell
 kristen.cooper@stratfor.com

 --
 Matthew Powers
 STRATFOR Intern
 Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com

 --
 Matthew Powers
 STRATFOR Intern
 Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
","2009-09-30 21:39:12",1,"2012-02-27 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1009309_re-research-request-europe-mil-fighter-jet-market-.html","matthew.powers@stratfor.com","","researchers@stratfor.com","attach/97/97774_Gripen Company Summary.doc"
1010563,"[CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
   cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
   to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing personal
   information on cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I
   could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
   being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
   Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers
   in Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
   speculation.

   Link: themeData
   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
   denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
   drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
   criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
   addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent video
   release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
   Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
   politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
   consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
   demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
   conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a unique
   threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at online bloggers,
   but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
   from hackers before. 

   What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
        o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
   Mexican cartels.
        o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
        o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
   cartels

   While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
        o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
   information on cartel members
        o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
   cartels
        o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
   identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
   realm of possibilities for
               Anonymous
               o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit
   online activity (child pornography rings)

   Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent world
   of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of cartel
   activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
   in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
   retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
   cartels.
        o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will cost
   lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are forced
   to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often victims of
   extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
   individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel                  
   operations. Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero
   & Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any consequences
   from this.
        o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
   willing to go protect their operations.
           o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
           o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
   before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
           o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of discovering
   hackers within Mexico.

    

   On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there are
     several issues to address and fix here.

     These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the discussion:

          o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
     can't gloss over that fact
          o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
     stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
     www.loszetas.com main page.
          o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
     could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
     accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
     identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
     businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
     Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
     instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
     they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
     because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
     kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
          o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
     realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
     damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
     technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
     certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
     information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
     internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
     Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
     accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
     dissemination.
          o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace back
     attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by people
     who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker and a
     blogger.

     On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

       wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

       -------- Original Message --------

        Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
           Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
           From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
       Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
             To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

       you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
       more work

       You need to lay out:

       a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
       unclear
       b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and therefore
       their vulnerabilities and capabilities
       c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
       d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
       breaches their systems or exposes their connections

       I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable insight
       that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels of
       sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of cyber
       currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume
       that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a protected
       fashion.

       Karen Hooper
       Latin America Analyst
       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
       c: 512.750.7234
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

       On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       Link: themeData

       Trigger

       Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers. Anonymous,
       a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out at drug
       cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
       criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...? a person
       talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most
       recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
       criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican?
       American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who
       collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
       release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. The
       potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
       presents an unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
       different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
       Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
       believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do not
       believe for a second that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

        

       In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
       day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
       releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up front.
       Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
       enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how he was
       abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
       information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels will
       likely respond with violence against individuals revealed as opposing
       cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely
       that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will
       force the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
       don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
       Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
       against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
       their threats against any individual using online media WC.... you
       mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here. against
       the cartels.

        

       The Battle Space

       Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate realities
       from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of the computer
       networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical boundaries. All
       personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
       not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in the real
       world. They have names and addresses - although most of them are
       likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their
       technical capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
       Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's
       of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
       be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous has done are
       DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big company with a
       website that brings in revenue, but it does not really matter if you
       don't run operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
       e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than the
       jihadists.)

       Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
       consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
       themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
       internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything and
       everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme goes,
       anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
       people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious
       IT capability. 

       The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
       targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

       The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
       Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to maximize
       profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar commerce. Yes.....
       but they use the internet to launder money and issue commands. We know
       that Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to assume that
       Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by
       large amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like
       Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of threats.
       Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
       violence. While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
       Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in the
       flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media outlets.
       Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to cover details of
       their operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
       discussion. You need to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the
       cartels. Don't just assume they have no cyber presence.

        

       Anonymous' Weapons

       Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
       criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to combat
       cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating sensitive
       information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via
       social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and that
       we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to cartels, they
       cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a targeted information
       operations campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
       overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream
       media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
       operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
       bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed with a
       dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a blogger. The
       message threatened any users who denounce cartels on blogging
       websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not really addressing the
       subheading

       As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
       disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous is
       capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
       releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican cartels,
       Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals. Anonymous's ability
       to disseminate sensitive information is limited by what is available
       via the Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
       should always be considered a possibility of an attack. However, as
       with the compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
       networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence collection
       may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This
       isn't clear at all

        

       Cartel's Defense

                   A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet to
       see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by Los
       Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
       hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
       undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley internet
       based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How
       did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well
       give you some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
       Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
       cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed for
       them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies dedicated to
       fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
       indicating that) they are working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers
       threatening cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
       information including locations is only available if a hacker chooses
       to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
       figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels are only
       capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can physically
       reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of their own under their
       payroll? Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                   Cartels have been known to coerce the services of Mexican
       citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of computer
       science majors through personal threats has been reported in the past
       where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
       world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will likely need
       the assistance of technical experts to help combat any threat by
       computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has
       been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying
       any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
       such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources than
       cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations. A) How do
       you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???)
       B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
       track down

                   In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
       likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
       force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
       Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
       with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
       and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
       of violence will likely continue to be used to scare online media into
       submission i'm not really seeing the online media-international
       hacking group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
       inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely encountered
       before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the
       confidence of Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able
       to seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos
       could call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any
       inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 16:32:57",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1010563_-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","tristan.reed@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1010679,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can build
   off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent
   people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on journalists
   or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the situation.  This has
   long term implications in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the
   consequences of their actions and they act without understanding the
   environment.  It was the same when they released information on the Sony
   Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a
   point. 

   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
     cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
     to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
     personal information on cartels as well as states a member had been
     kidnapped. I could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of
     the individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
     (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an
     individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
     Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

     Link: themeData
     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
     denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
     drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent
     video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels
     in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The
     hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
     otherwise face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming
     November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
     reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met.
     The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
     presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at
     online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing
     with any headaches from hackers before. 

     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
     Mexican cartels.
          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
     cartels

     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
     information on cartel members
          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
     cartels
          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
     identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
     realm of possibilities for
                 Anonymous
                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
     illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent
     world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of
     cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when
     sitting in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
     retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
     cartels.
          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
     cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
     forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
     victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
     identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
     cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
     working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor) before, however
     there has yet to be any consequences from this.
          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
     willing to go protect their operations.
             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
     before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
             o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
     discovering hackers within Mexico.

      

     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
       are several issues to address and fix here.

       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
       discussion:

            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
       can't gloss over that fact
            o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
       stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
       www.loszetas.com main page.
            o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
       could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
       accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
       businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
       Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
       instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
       they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
       because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
       kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
            o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
       realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
       damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
       technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
       certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
       information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
       Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
       accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
       dissemination.
            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
       back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by
       people who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker
       and a blogger.

       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

         -------- Original Message --------

          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
             From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
         Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
               To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

         you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
         more work

         You need to lay out:

         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
         unclear
         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
         therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
         breaches their systems or exposes their connections

         I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
         insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
         of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to
         assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
         protected fashion.

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         Link: themeData

         Trigger

         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
         Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out
         at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
         Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...?
         a person talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With
         the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
         the criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
         Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group
         demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
         consequences. The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal
         cartels and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
         cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
         experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no experience
         with the cartels. I do not believe for a second that the cartels
         have no experience with hackers.

          

         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
         day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
         releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back.
         Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how
         he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing
         revealing information on cartel members and operations are true,
         cartels will likely respond with violence against individuals
         revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials
         who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
         Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this means. You
         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel
         will be able to retaliate against Anonymous remains unanswered .
         However, cartels will continue their threats against any individual
         using online media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not
         talking about bloggers here. against the cartels.

          

         The Battle Space

         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
         realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
         the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
         cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
         tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses - although
         most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base
         consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any information
         connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers.
         (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of
         Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
         what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
         Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in revenue,
         but it does not really matter if you don't run operations on the
         web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far
         less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
         consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
         themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
         internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
         and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
         goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web
         of people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of
         serious IT capability. 

         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
         targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
         Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
         maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
         commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
         issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.
         Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and escalating
         brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing
         different types of threats. Cartels are always suffering at the
         hands of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each other,
         cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels
         wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
         have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
         bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok... but
         that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus
         on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume
         they have no cyber presence.

          

         Anonymous' Weapons

         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
         criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
         combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
         sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
         statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean
         so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a
         targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
         individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
         Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
         such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
         target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
         Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
         body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce
         cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
         really addressing the subheading

         As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
         disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous
         is capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
         cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals.
         Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive information is limited
         by what is available via the Internet. Government computers
         connected to the Internet should always be considered a possibility
         of an attack. However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the
         US governments computer networks, information available to Mexico's
         intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you
         trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

          

         Cartel's Defense

                     A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet
         to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by
         Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed
         by hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also
         this undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley
         internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that
         could very well give you some indication to the technical ability of
         the cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
         wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely
         are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole
         agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume
         (and we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
         disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in
         any region of the world. Personal information including locations is
         only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject
         of the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
         work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
         online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
         employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger things
         have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                     Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
         Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of
         computer science majors through personal threats has been reported
         in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels
         operate in the world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they
         will likely need the assistance of technical experts to help combat
         any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside
         of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable
         of identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
         experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers
         through investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
         (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not
         all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                     In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
         likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
         force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
         Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
         with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be
         targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
         public display of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
         online media into submission i'm not really seeing the online
         media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
         manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer hackers
         have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
         cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to
         be seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
         the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff and
         simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 17:22:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1010679_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1011072,"Re: INSIGHT - VZ/Colombia - VZ regime stability and Makled
","   dude, yeah.. Cabello is serious shit.  Everyone was speculating he would
   be the one to replace Chavez.  I'll be writing on this as soon as i get
   the OK from the source
   On Nov 19, 2010, at 4:49 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     heh I just realized Diosdao's maternal last name is
     Rondon....confusing!!

     Cabello held down the presidency for Chavez during the 2002 coup and I
     think was vice-president at one point around then

     On 11/19/10 4:35 PM, Reginald Thompson wrote:

       PUBLICATION: analysis/background
       ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
       SOURCE DESCRIPTION:VZ302
       SOURCE  Reliability :  B
       ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
       DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
       SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
       There's been heavy negotiation between VZ and Colombia and US over
       Makled extradition
       US has given approval to Colombia's extradition of Makled to VZ (as we
       suspected)
       Unclear exactly what all the Colombian demands are, but from what I've
       been able to gather, Colombia has given a list to VZ of the most
       senior guerillas that they want extradited. US is demanding info from
       VZ on VZ banks and their connections to narco-trafficking and Iran so
       they can build cases against them. 
       Source seemed surprised that US isn't pushing for more... as he said
       'what can I say, this is how the Obama adminstration has been with
       this issue. There isn't a real strategy. If it were me, I would hold
       Makled over Chavez's head and extract as much as possible from him,
       but they're going soft on this.\" there's also no coordination. DoJ
       says they want Mackled but they have to raise it to the level of the
       presidency and state to get it going. They're not focused on it at
       all. DEA can't coordinate either. 
       (side note - this clarifies a bit what Uribe told me about the US
       having to 'raise its voice' in demanding Makled. I think the
       Colombians are surprised that the US isn't pushing more on this. As
       the source says, Santos is not naive.)
       Before Chavez supported Rangel, Rangel and the most senior general
       went to CHavez and asked 'who are you going to side with?\" Chavez
       didn't have much choice but to do something, liket his promotion to
       show the rest that he wasn't going to betray them over Makled. 
       Watch Diosdado Cabello and Tomas Rondon. They're out. Completely
       sidelined. Even their cell phones that they use for a direct line to
       the president have been taken away. They knew too much. From what
       we've been able to gather, the total amount of money laundered between
       the two reaches as high as $15 billion (!)
       I asked how is VZ containing them if they know too much. He laughed
       and said Reva, Reva... I'm sure the Cubans can take of that.
       He agrees that all the activity around the housing projects is a rush
       job for them to launder more money, but will get more info on that in
       a couple weeks. 
       Below is some info on Cabello and Rondon that Reggie compiled for me:
       Diosdado Cabello
         * .         Cabello is currently the Vice President of the Central
           PSUV Political Region
       o   He attended meetings earlier this month of the PSUV National
       Directorate where the *three Rs* program to relaunch the revolution
       has been a topic of discussion (link)
       o   Journalist Miguel Salazar seems to imply in a column from this
       month that Cabello is one of Chavez*s protected associates, despite
       his apparent falling out with him and that he has his eyes set on the
       presidency of the national assembly (link)
       S:  Interesting aside: Salazar claims Cabello acted as financier for
       the La Piedrita paramilitary group, which attacked opposition news
       organizations.
       o   Cabello has been linked to several scandals in recent news
       stories. These include:
       S:  The BusCaracas program in Caracas was meant to be a bus line to be
       completed in Aug. 2009, while Cabello was minister of public works.
       The first stage of the project may be completed in the first quarter
       of 2011 (link).
       S:  Legislator Julio Garcia Jarpa has criticized Cabello for promising
       in 2009 to deliver 400 houses in Tachira state that were never
       completed (link).

        

       Tomas Sanchez Rondon
         * .         Sanchez Rondon is still in charge of Bolivariana de
           Seguros and Seguros La Previsora (link)
       o   He  was accused of corruption in anonymous e-mails that claimed he
       had brought one of his sons, Ronald Sanchez Mejia, aboard but without
       an official title (link)
       S:  Ronald reportedly negotiates insurance coverage with state-owned
       firms, is in charge of collecting payments and maintaining relations
       with customers. 
       o   I don*t really understand what Sanchez Rondon is accused of in the
       email, because it goes around in circles and never really goes into
       specific charges past the fraudulent employment of his son. However,
       it seems that the firm Bolivariana de Seguros functions irregularly
       and apparently employs many people but doesn*t really have much
       business. It appears to be some sort of insurance fraud.
       they know too much - the amount of money that has been laundered $15
       billion
       housing -- need to launder more money
       belarus
       radar equipment -- 
       giving to 
       a deal in Abu Dhabi 
       recent paid by the VZ re

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
","2010-11-19 23:49:06",1,"2012-03-09 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1011072_re-insight-vz-colombia-vz-regime-stability-and-makled-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1011703,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG arrested 10
     Russian spies last year, are you willing to say foreign intel is not
     capable of conducting espionage undetected?

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
     responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
     intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
     just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
     indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
     department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT. The
     question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many people assume
     there is no attribution because there is no response, but I don't think
     that is accurate.  Many people say this, because no attribution is one
     reason for no response.

     3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new laptop and
     start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack involves much more than
     a recently bought laptop.  In the same way there is an attack cycle for
     a terrorist attack or crime, there is one for a cyber attack.  A very
     simple attack may be as hard to trace as a nearly-random mugging in the
     dark in a neighborhood with much more serious crime and no CCTV
     cameras.  A more complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational
     surveillance, developing exploits, developing programs and code, gaining
     access, exploiting that, and carrying out an attack.  Discovering
     exploits and writing code can be done entirely offline, out of sight of
     law enforcement or intel agencies. Pre-operational surveillance and
     gaining access (the point of the exploit you write offline) would fit in
     my example. The point is, if you don't link your computer to
     identifiable information, you remain anonymous.  And that takes time,
     giving more time for your exposure Exposure comes from network activity
     with the target, a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can
     occur without network activity. Look at everything that went into
     Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person with a
     new laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of
     necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
     discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage to
     extremely sensitive equipment .  All of this activity provides activity
     and evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
     possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation, that even
     the best law enforcement and national intelligence agencies have trouble
     or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that it's very difficult
     for someone to successfully use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ,
     MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute it.  How do you know if NSA or
     GHQ is effective in identifying hackers? They may not choose to cover it
     if it is small scale crime, however. 
     On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored cyber
       warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing that, since
       you can conduct a cyber attack without associating with a hacker group
       and still deny / cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual
       attacking US computer assets from China, may be working by himself or
       on behalf of the Chinese government, but unless the US has other intel
       on the Chinese government's cyber warfare activities in order to
       corroborate there is little capability to distinguish.

       It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
       operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from
       SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual responsible for
       hacking State run servers. In the past, I have turned to SIGINT
       organizations for collections on computer related material, but this
       was due to the US being behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where
       to assign responsibility. However, this has changed dramatically in
       the last couple of years.

       Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an
       extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a
       Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the online
       activity to something revealing (accessing personal email accounts,
       tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop, etc..), and
       begin hacking government email accounts then never use the laptop
       again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of my appearance
       from Starbuck's patrons or possible security cameras, I can not think
       of way to identify me.

       Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to these
       enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to specific
       computer-related activities because of the difficulty in identifying
       individuals.

       I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be blown, would
       be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common
       participant in \"Anonymous\" activities, was working for a State?
       Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that State agent
       organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs
       could a LEA look for to distinguish?

       On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a bit)

         1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything actually
         harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but i'm very
         doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real case where
         they could do some minor damage--to individual people, not not to an
         organization or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
         threat. 

         2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually
         pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover, but
         that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could probably still be
         attributed if important enough to those agencies.  The recent attack
         on Sony actually brings this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves
         anonymous denies they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have
         claimed an publicized attacks in the past, even before they were
         carried out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
         sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
         coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted Sony's IT
         security).  But whoever did it, again, no real damage came of it. 
         Congress is holding hearings over data security, but this is no
         different than the OC groups stealing your credit card information. 
         LE will go after them, have some success, but the threat is not that
         large. 
         On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

           Link: themeData

           I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
           broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
           almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
           Reviewing their list of attacks
           (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of
           the cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the
           internet . The interesting thing when it comes to their
           interactions with the cartels is the dubious role they play: at
           the same time they can be fighting crime by revealing cartel
           members/supporters, but they can also put lives in risk.

           However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
           Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can
           conduct a cyber attack under \"Anonymous\" is worrisome.
           (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

           If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
           websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know
           more about these guys. Who they are? What are they interested in?
           How they operate? Who they have targeted so far? How can I defend
           myself from them? In what countries are they active? Should I
           worry about them at all? Can I use them to achieve any particular
           goal?

           On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else
             can build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they
             pose to innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico. 
             By focusing on journalists or taxi drivers they show little
             understanding of the situation.  This has long term implications
             in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
             their actions and they act without understanding the
             environment.  It was the same when they released information on
             the Sony Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt
             innocent people to prove a point. 

             On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
               possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
               Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by
               Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on cartels
               as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
               find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
               individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
               (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it
               may be an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
               Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

               Link: themeData
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
               distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government
               websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
               statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a
               video depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug
               cartels on October 10? With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
               Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
               police, politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
               cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow
               kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In the
               Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
               day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands
               of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
               conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
               presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
               lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any
               reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers
               before. 

               What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                    o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
               threat to Mexican cartels.
                    o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit
               online media
                    o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to
               lash out at cartels

               While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose
               a threat
                    o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
               identifiable information on cartel members
                    o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could
               acquire on cartels
                    o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
               communications, identifiable information on cartels members
               have to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                           Anonymous
                           o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to
               reveal illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

               Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
               ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
               result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
               limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting in
               front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
               retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online
               assault of cartels.
                    o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
               journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some
               of these individuals are forced to collude with cartels.    
                         Taxi drivers are often victims of extortion or
               coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
               individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel    
                             operations. Politicans have been accused of
               working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor) before,
               however there has yet to be any consequences from this.
                    o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent
               cartels are willing to go protect their operations.
                       o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                       o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
               community before, coercing computer science majors into
               working for them.
                       o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
               discovering hackers within Mexico.

                

               On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                 Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea
                 but there are several issues to address and fix here.

                 These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
                 discussion:

                      o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's
                 fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                      o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a
                 difference between stealing bank records from government
                 computers and overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                      o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
                 information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of
                 info is kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You
                 seem to be talking about identities, whose? If anything it's
                 dirty cops, politicians and businessmen who need to worry
                 about what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                 bloggers and media were killed in previous instances. Was it
                 because they revealed operational details, because they
                 acted as informants, because they exposed links with
                 officials or because they somehow sullied the cartel's
                 reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
                 to the cartels themselves?
                      o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon
                 can realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes
                 a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence
                 capacity except for the technical ability by a very small
                 number of its members to infiltrate certain networks and
                 databases and steal information. Now what kind of
                 information would a cartel keep on a network that is
                 connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else
                 could information be found? Government databases? Once we
                 know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
                 know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                      o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
                 trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
                 killings done by people who may not understand the
                 difference between an anon hacker and a blogger.

                 On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                   -------- Original Message --------

                    Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                       Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                       From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
                   Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                         To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

                   you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to
                   need a lot more work

                   You need to lay out:

                   a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
                   section is unclear
                   b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is,
                   and therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
                   c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
                   anything
                   d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
                   anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their
                   connections

                   I also just want to point out that we have reasonable
                   reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some
                   significant levels of sophistication in their online
                   presence, to include the use of cyber currencies and
                   significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume that
                   Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
                   protected fashion.

                   Karen Hooper
                   Latin America Analyst
                   o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                   c: 512.750.7234
                   STRATFOR
                   www.stratfor.com
                   On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                   On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                   Link: themeData

                   Trigger

                   Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
                   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
                   lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
                   statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including
                   a video released depicting...? a person talking? a voice?
                   words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent
                   video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                   criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
                   Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                   journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
                   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
                   otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
                   between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                   unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                   different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a
                   conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
                   experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
                   experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
                   that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                    

                   In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                   reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member
                   this should be mentioned right up front. Cartels have a
                   member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
                   enough details so we understand who this guy is and
                   why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims
                   of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
                   operations are true, cartels will likely respond with
                   violence against individuals revealed as opposing cartel
                   members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is
                   likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude
                   with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
                   Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
                   means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                   effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
                   Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
                   continue their threats against any individual using online
                   media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking
                   about bloggers here. against the cartels.

                    

                   The Battle Space

                   Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                   separate realities from each other. Anonymous operates
                   solely in sphere of the computer networks. Anonymous does
                   not experience geographical boundaries. All personalities
                   within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
                   not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in
                   the real world. They have names and addresses - although
                   most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                   base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking.
                   Any information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to
                   exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual
                   cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
                   be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
                   has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or
                   a big company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                   it does not really matter if you don't run operations on
                   the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They
                   are also far less dependent on the web than the
                   jihadists.)

                   Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's
                   power base consists of the perceived anonymity that its
                   members believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by
                   operating through the internet. This gives an opening for
                   people disgruntled by anything and everything to practice
                   general dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity +
                   audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
                   people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any
                   sort of serious IT capability. 

                   The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
                   been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

                   The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in
                   US and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always
                   looking to maximize profits and expand. But they are
                   bricks and mortar commerce. Yes..... but they use the
                   internet to launder money and issue commands. We know that
                   Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to
                   assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity. 
                   Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                   escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
                   experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels
                   are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
                   violence. While battling each other, cartels still face
                   arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
                   avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money,
                   cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists
                   and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
                   operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
                   discussion. You need to focus on the possible
                   vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
                   have no cyber presence.

                    

                   Anonymous' Weapons

                   Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions
                   against criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous'
                   only ability to combat cartels lay in information
                   operations, mainly disseminating sensitive information on
                   cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via social
                   media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and
                   that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                   cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of
                   a targeted information operations campaign by technically
                   elite individuals can not be overlooked should not be
                   underestimated. Cartels view main stream media outlets and
                   social media blogs as such a threat to their operations,
                   that they have continued to target journalists and
                   bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was
                   placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
                   body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
                   denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
                   here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

                   As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                   internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample
                   reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing
                   information they threaten to release. By releasing
                   identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
                   cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
                   individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
                   information is limited by what is available via the
                   Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
                   should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
                   However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                   governments computer networks, information available to
                   Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to
                   acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
                   clear at all

                    

                   Cartel's Defense

                               A counter response to the video? by the
                   cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                   claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los
                   Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by hackers
                   so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
                   undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is
                   soley internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities
                   of associated members. How did they find teh Anonymous
                   member? The answer to that could very well give you some
                   indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
                   Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web
                   , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
                   rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG
                   has whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in
                   cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
                   indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
                   cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any
                   region of the world. Personal information including
                   locations is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge
                   it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                   figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous.
                   Cartels are only capable of dealing with their online
                   enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
                   employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
                   Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                               Cartels have been known to coerce the services
                   of Mexican citizens with a technical background.
                   Recruiting the help of computer science majors through
                   personal threats has been reported in the past where? What
                   cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
                   world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will
                   likely need the assistance of technical experts to help
                   combat any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                   bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
                   unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
                   operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
                   such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and
                   resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers through
                   investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
                   (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume
                   that not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                               In order to compete with an online foe,
                   cartels will likely continue counter tactics they are most
                   familiar with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of
                   their HUMINT operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would
                   we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged
                   connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
                   and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
                   public display of violence will likely continue to be used
                   to scare online media into submission i'm not really
                   seeing the online media-international hacking group
                   connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                   inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
                   encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
                   cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will
                   remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
                   capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could
                   call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off
                   any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-25 00:07:40",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1011703_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","tristan.reed@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1012575,"Re: INSIGHT - RUSSIA/CzR - expelled Russian diplos
","   Russian bias? never!
   There is a good point that the Soviets prompted the antinuclear movement
   in the West in the 1960s.... it was a movement that wasn't really there
   until they sparked it & that movement is still there today. Russia is good
   at the grassroots movements & what they are doing in CzR makes alot of
   sense.
   This movement against the US radar is a strong one in CzR (was like 68% of
   ppl). It is one of the top issues for a very fragile government..........
   a great move by Moscow.

   Eugene is doing a shorty on this.

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

     hah, love the bias
     On Aug 18, 2009, at 11:11 AM, Aaron Colvin wrote:

        

       CODE: RU101
       PUBLICATION: yes
       ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
       SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Senior within the Kremlin circle  
       SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
       ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
       DISTRIBUTION: Analysts, CT, Briefers
       SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
        
        
       The Czechs are accusing the diplomats of being SVR with the goal of
       influencing public opinion and causing resistance against building of
       the US radar at Brdy. As if the Czechs need any help being against the
       American invasion of their country. Not that a little nudging hurts.
       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-08-18 18:40:00",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1012575_re-insight-russia-czr-expelled-russian-diplos-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,ct@stratfor.com,briefers@stratfor.com",""
1013806,"Re: Research Request - Europe/MIL - Fighter Jet Market
","   Attached is my summary of the Dassault and Rafale's place in it.

   The Rafale is not the main component of Dassault's business.  62% of sales
   come from sales of the Falcon business jet. Defense sales make up the
   rest, with 31% from sales to France; while foreign defense sales account
   for only 7%.  However, no Rafales have been sold overseas.  Total sales
   were 3.75 Billion euros in 2008.

   The Rafale was designed primarily for use by the French government, but
   also for export.  They said they tried to develop the fighter to meet
   worldwide, as opposed to strictly western European needs.  As of 2008 120
   Rafales have been ordered by, or delivered to, the French government. 

   Kristen Cooper wrote:

     Just FYI -

     I'm working on the first bullet in the first tranche of questions

     Antonia is taking a look into Saab's situation right now.

     Kristen Cooper wrote:

       Got it.
       On Sep 30, 2009, at 10:20 AM, Nate Hughes wrote:

         Rami can take the lead on this, but we've got a few things on his
         plate today and Marko was hoping to get this rolling ASAP. The
         priority is the first tranche of questions for the initial Gripen
         piece.

         First, for the Gripen piece:
           * A clear understanding of the three offerings before Brazil:
                * What has each offered specifically in terms of price, tech
                  transfer and indigenous assembly/production (not all may be
                  available, but we need to know what's out there --
                  particularly the price drop of the Gripen and price point
                  of the Rafale)
           * Just how dire/desperate is Saab? Are they trying to secure the
             deal in order to secure the deal? Or are they in more dire
             straits than that?
           * Any other takers for the NG? Even follow-on orders or for
             upgrades?
           * What has Saab managed to sell of the Gripen NGs thus far? 
         Overall:
           * A careful look at each company in turn. Obviously we're starting
             with Saab. Dassault next, since I think the Rafale may be in
             worse shape than the Gripen. Eurofighter is the most coherent of
             the three at this point, I believe. For each:
                * brief history of genesis of the program, and the business
                  case for it -- how many was each intending to sell to the
                  primary customer and how many were intended to be sold
                  abroad?
                * In particular, what was the scheme and why did it fail? For
                  example, the Gripen was specifically designed as a low
                  cost, and low-life cycle-cost alternative to the other
                  designs on the market. Supposed to be a solid plane.
                  Certainly not competing directly with the Joint Strike
                  Fighter. What gives? 
                * Let's get a key sense of exactly where each fighter was
                  supposed to be sold... country by country. Marko can then
                  quickly lay out the macroeconomics of why country X or Y
                  could no longer afford this or that fighter. 
                * Key export agreements/failures to secure them. Timeline for
                  each. (I want to be careful about correlation of the Iraq
                  war with the sales of the Gripen. Even if they correlate,
                  that doesn't mean causation necessarily. Let's get dates
                  but also look at the production schedule for the Gripen)
           * Might be good to get a bit of a sense of the evolution of the
             global fighter jet market as a whole, so we can fit European
             efforts in with American and Russian efforts.
           * Can we get a sense of all NEW Jet Fighter orders from 2000
             onwards? I am making 2000 up as arbitrary number... but it would
             be good to get a really detailed excel worksheet going with ALL
             fighter jet sales. Let's concentrate first on NEW fighters, not
             repurchased, since that will make things easier and we can
             decide if we need repurchased later. There has to be a study out
             there on this. 
           * Let's see if we can't dig up some analysis of this situation.
             We're not the first to contemplate this. What are industry rags
             and European circles saying about it?
         -- 
         Nathan Hughes
         Director of Military Analysis
         STRATFOR
         512.744.4300 ext. 4097
         nathan.hughes@stratfor.com

 --
 Kristen Cooper
 Researcher
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com
 512.744.4093 - office
 512.619.9414 - cell
 kristen.cooper@stratfor.com

 --
 Matthew Powers
 STRATFOR Intern
 Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
","2009-09-30 22:44:11",1,"2012-02-27 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1013806_re-research-request-europe-mil-fighter-jet-market-.html","matthew.powers@stratfor.com","","hughes@stratfor.com,marko.papic@stratfor.com,kristen.cooper@stratfor.com,researchers@stratfor.com","attach/97/97874_Dassault Company Summary.doc"
1016341,"Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta conflict
	in context
","   Just to build on my last comment - and I think this should be included in
   the piece - the cartels could just as easily try to intimidate would be
   sources ratting to anonymous as intimidate bloggers. Imagine if, after
   anonymous publishes a few juicy tidbits, Zetas hang a few headless bodies
   from a bridge accusing them of contributing to anonymous? True or not,
   cartels can intimidate both sides of the information flow and the sources
   may be more vulnerable than anonymous themselves.

   Still think a discussion of Anonymous and source handling would be pretty
   cool.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Ben West\" <ben.west@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 5:42:42 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 4:45:43 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

      Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

     On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a message to
     the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing with its
     campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
     governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

      

     The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
     proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It also
     urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct physical
     pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy Fawkes
     masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or physical world
     activities.[Is this universally or just in Mexico?  The former points to
     problems with LE cracking down on them, the latter specifically to
     cartel retribution]  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic conspirator who was
     involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament in 1605, and who has
     become somewhat of an Anarchist icon in the United Kingdom. The British
     celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each year on Nov. 5, and the day has special
     meaning for the anarchists.  

      

     It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous set
     Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous associate
     who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The Anonymous
     associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign
     called Operation Paperstorm.

      

     The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,
     dubbed a**# OpCartela** is dangerous and noted that the collective would
     be assembling a hand-picked group of known and trusted associates to
     participate in a special task force to execute the operation.[hahahaha,
     this says something about leadership] It asked supporters to use a
     software widget[WC. is this the correct term?] they had developed in
     order to anonymously pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to
     the task force, which will then distribute it. 

      

     With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not
     backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be
     useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous
     and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential implications.

      

     Context

      

     First it issignificant to understand that the physical? geographic?
     epicenter of this event is Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place
     over the past few months in terms of Mexicoa**s cartel wars. The port
     city also serves as a critical transportation hub for the narcotics
     smuggling activities of the Los Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor
     has identified Veracruz as [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
     ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the Los
     Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

      

     One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
     cartela**s push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
     ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
     Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of over
     50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On Oct. 25,
     Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, a**El Bam
     Bam,a** who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that in
     Veracruz at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from both
     the Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

      

     Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective begin
     to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what Anonymous saw
     as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas cartel, they launched
     Operation Paperstorm, in which activists who associated themselves with
     the Anonymous collective distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz
     claiming the state government supports Los Zetas.  They conducted major
     leaflet distributions on Aug. 13, 20, and 29. They also released videos
     to the internet on Aug. 26 and 29, condemning the State of Veracruz.
     (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous video, Los Zetas allegedly kidnapped
     one of the activists involved in Operation Paperstorm.)

      

     Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting the
     stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and their bodies
     hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state.  Signs
     left with the bodies signified that Los Zetas had killed the pair
     because they had posted information pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs
     that specialize in reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the
     body of Marisol Macias Casteneda was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo
     Laredo.   Macias who worked for a local newspaper allegedly posted on
     cartel blogs using the nickname a**Laredo Girl.a** A message found with
     her body noted that she was killed by Los Zetas due to her online
     activities.

      

     Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for
     a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against the
     official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was killed by
     Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their attack on the
     Veracruz state website was because of the death of Laredo Girl. [can you
     attempt to explain why they linked it with veracruz?]

      

     It is also important to recognize that some members of Anonymous [again
     I hate referring to Anonymous as one entity] was also unhappy with the
     State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to prosecute two
     individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug.
     25. The false reports alleged that a group of children had been abducted
     from a Veracruz school and the panic caused by the report allegedly
     resulted in some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed
     to the school to check o n their children. The so-called a**twitter
     terroristsa** were initially charged with offenses that could have
     carried a 30-year sentence. Those involved in this campaign from
     Anonymous, which claims absolute freedom of speech on the internet as
     one of its foundational principles, took umbrage with this stiff penalty
     for the Twitter case a** especially because it stood in stark contrast
     with the impunity many cartel figures enjoy in Mexico. 

      

      

     Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous threatened
     Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous activist,
     Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the approaching
     Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
     ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

      

     Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a great
     deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very interesting
     response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast that it is a
     collective of people and not an organization.  As some
     Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
     accounts[does this mean accounts of people in support of the attack?],
     suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a hoax and
     claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other activists suggested
     that the campaign should be suspended. Still other activists became more
     strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign
     continue. Since Anonymous is a collective, activists can pick and choose
     which actions they will participate in. that means in his case that
     those activists who want to refrain from the campaign will and those who
     want to participate will continue it.  [i see how this paragraph fits
     into your analysis the way you have it written, but I think it might go
     better at the front.  You could use the 'anonymous discussion' as a
     trigger, explain it's \"collective\" qualities and then go into the rest
     of the analysis.  This way I feel much less bad about how we refer to
     'anonymous']

      

     This will to continue was manifested[something is off in the previous
     part of the sentence] on Oct. 29, the personal website of Gustavo
     RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the Mexican state of
     Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from Anonymous Mexico
     stating that Rosario was aZeta.  It was also reflected in the tone of
     the Oct. 31 message. Some activists associated with Anonymous clearly
     feel compelled to continue with the campaign due to the outpouring[WC. 
     Did they really get an outpouring? seemed like they got a lot of
     criticism and also support for going against the cartels] of public
     support they received in the wake of the media coverage. According to
     the Oct 31. Video statement: (did we see specific examples of \"public
     support\" or are we just going off of the youtube statement CLAIMING that
     they got lots of support?)

      

     a**we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the
     voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the
     side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in
     critical moments like the one they currently live in.a**

      

     We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the
     campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

      

     Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
     better than Star Trek. What's Star Trek?) 

      

     The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
     place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even
     degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them torturing,
     executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They also
     frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them.  As
     demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in September, Los
     Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary capability to trace
     online activity to people in thephysical world. It is not known if they
     employ their own team of dedicated cyber experts or if they rely on
     sources within the Mexican government a** although the most likely
     answer is probably a little of both.  [what about just old-fashioned
     human intelligence?  Many people discuss blogger identities both online
     and offline, something they could've picked up without network-based
     forensics.  'My brother blogs about...' and on from there.  Or by
     tracing the information the blogger had in the real world, and
     eventually getting back to the blogger]

   Tristan was talking about how the cartels were even kidnapping computer
   science students and forcing them to track anonymous down. Need to check
   with him on specifics though

      

      

     In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
     following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK have
     arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly
     participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of
     activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted against the Turkish
     government for its efforts to establish a national internet filtering
     system. [Need something to make a point here, maybe something like:] 
     The reality is that there is no such thing as anonymity, on the internet
     or otherwise.  Any action leaves some trail, whether digitial or
     physical.  In the same way that hackers from Anonymous develop exploits
     to access confidential information, law enforcement agencies and even
     cartels could get around encryption, examine patterns of activity and
     investigate leads that in the end identify a real person behind a
     computer. 

      

     Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts lightly.
     Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that will damage
     Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this group has
     decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in some sort of
     response. The big question is: do theypossess the capability to
     effectively trace the organizers of the Anonymousaction against them?

      

     One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is intentionally
     amorphous a** it is also as transnational as the internet, and it would
     not be surprising if many of those chosen to participate in the
     operation against Los Zetas are located outside of Mexico in locations
     such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside the immediate reach of Los
     Zetas.(the US is not out of reach, at least not on the border:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111005-mexico-security-memo-defining-cross-border-violence)

      

     But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way.  If
     Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an internet cafe,
     behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads, it will be very
     difficult to prove that they were not  associated with  Anonymous.  As
     Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is dangerous business.(it
     would certainly be within the cartel's capacity to kill innocents and
     blame anonymous in the attempt to intimidate them into stopping their
     activity)

      

      

     The Big Picture

      

     One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way in
     which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican middle and
     upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal cartels and
     theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in Mexico who are
     fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like
     Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen are being caught in
     a terrible bind. On one hand, they are receiving ever-increasing
     extortion demands from the cartels, while at the same time their
     business revenues are dwindling because people are afraid to go out due
     to the violence associated with those same cartels. This is forcing many
     businessmen[enterprises?] out of business. It is also creating a great
     deal of frustration and resentment.

      

     At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries
     in the world for journalists, and many media organizations practice
     heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the
     September blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog del Narco,
     have also exhibited strong signs of fear inspired self-censorship.  
     This means that the legitimate press is not able to be of any real aid
     to the Mexican people.

      

     Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
     well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymousa**
     original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some people to
     begin to talk about

     vigilante groups to fight the cartels a** though that has been attempted
     before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
     ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
     group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

      

     This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely
     on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for
     assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form of
     cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a perceived
     safe way to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If this
     occurs, we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta controlled
     areas providing information to Anonymous, but citizens from all over the
     country.

      

     Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in an
     effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also very
     well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information on Los
     Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more reason for
     Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.

      

     If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
     Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
     releasing sensitive information to the U.S. Drug Enforcement
     Administration in an attempt to damage Los Zetas. This would be an
     incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous has viewed itself as an
     opponent of the U.S. government in cases like Wikileaks. (Anonymous has
     made it clear that the value they provide is a safe and private medium
     through which to pass this damning information. Their stated priority is
     to publicize information that people send to them. But, do they have a
     way to protect their sources? They likely don't have much collective
     experience in source handling. I imagine a lot of the details they get
     could put their sources in serious trouble. If I were a semi-smart
     Mexican who knew some super detailed information on the cartels, I would
     think long and hard before handing it over to these guys. This may be a
     separate piece entirely, but I think we need a discussion on source
     handling and how good hackers don't necessarily make good intelligence
     agents.)

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   STRATFOR

   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967

   www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-01 23:46:55",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1016341_re-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs-zeta.html","ben.west@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1016464,"Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta conflict
	in context
","   Cool piece, comments and questions within

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Nate Hughes\" <nate.hughes@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 3:38:44 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

      Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

     On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a message to
     the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing with its
     campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
     governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

      

     The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
     proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It also
     urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct physical
     pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy Fawkes
     masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or physical world
     activities.  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic conspirator who was
     involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament in 1605, and who has
     become somewhat of an Anarchist icon in the United Kingdom. The British
     celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each year on Nov. 5, and the day has special
     meaning for the anarchists.  

      

     It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous set
     Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous associate
     who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The Anonymous
     associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign
     called Operation Paperstorm Also you might want to add the date he was
     picked up.

      

     The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,
     dubbed a**# OpCartela** no space. also, make it clear that this is a
     hashmark associated with twitter tagging (not looking to harp on it, but
     we need to show that we're aware of what that is with at least a
     parenthetical) is dangerous and noted that the collective would be
     assembling a hand-picked group of known and trusted associates to
     participate in a special task force to execute the operation. It asked
     supporters to use a software widget they had developed in order to
     anonymously pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to the task
     force, which will then distribute it. 

      

     With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not
     backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be
     useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous
     and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential implications.

      

     Context

      

     First it issignificant to understand that the epicenter of this event is
     Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place over the past few months in
     terms of Mexicoa**s cartel wars. The port city also serves as a critical
     transportation hub for the narcotics smuggling activities of the Los
     Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor has identified Veracruz as [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
     ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the Los
     Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

      

     One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
     cartela**s push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
     ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
     Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of over
     50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On Oct. 25,
     Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, a**El Bam
     Bam,a** who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that in
     Veracruz at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from both
     the Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

      

     Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective begin
     to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what Anonymous saw
     as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas cartel could really
     use a bit more about what led an online collective of activists into the
     mexican cartel war and why now? How does this fit with their modus
     operandi and why veracruz now and not any other place at any other time
     in the last year or two? we get at some of this below, but would get to
     the what brought anonymous into this right up front...

     , they launched Operation Paperstorm, in which activists associated with
     this is the leaderless resistance model, and we want to be clear early
     on that many of these 'associates' may be self-styled and self-appointed
     'members' of the group, not unlike ELF or ALF... the Anonymous
     collective distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz claiming the state
     government supports Los Zetas.  They conducted major leaflet
     distributions on Aug. 13, 20, and 29. They also released videos to the
     internet on the anonymous website? or on the website of the veracruz
     government? or on youtube? on Aug. 26 and 29, condemning the State of
     Veracruz. (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous video, Los Zetas allegedly
     kidnapped one of the activists involved in Operation Paperstorm.)

      

     Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting the
     stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and their bodies
     hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state.  Signs
     left with the bodies signified that Los Zetas had killed the pair
     because they had posted information pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs
     that specialize in reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the
     body of Marisol Macias Casteneda was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo
     Laredo.   Macias who worked for a local newspaper allegedly posted on
     cartel blogs using the nickname a**Laredo Girl.a** A message found with
     her body noted that she was killed by Los Zetas due to her online
     activities.

      

     Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for
     a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against the
     official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was killed by
     Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their attack on the
     Veracruz state website was because of the death of Laredo Girl. are we
     implying that this is an indication of the level of sophistication of
     anonymous activists' understanding of mexico and the cartels? I agree
     that a sentence should be added here about what it means that Anonymous
     chose to avenge Laredo Girl's death.

      

     It is also important to recognize that Anonymous was also unhappy with
     the State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to prosecute two
     individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug.
     25. The false reports alleged that a group of children had been abducted
     from a Veracruz school and the panic caused by the report allegedly
     resulted in some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed
     to the school to check o n their children. The so-called a**twitter
     terroristsa** were initially charged with offenses that could have
     carried a 30-year sentence. Anonymous, which has absolute freedom of
     speech on the internet as one of its foundational principles, took
     umbrage with this stiff penalty for the Twitter case a** especially
     because it stood in stark contrast with the impunity many cartel figures
     enjoy in Mexico. 

      

      

     Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous threatened
     Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous activist,
     Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the approaching
     Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
     ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

      

     Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a great
     deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very interesting
     response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast that it is a
     collective of people and not an organization.  As some
     Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
     accounts, suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a
     hoax and claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other activists
     suggested that the campaign should be suspended. Still other activists
     became more strident and determined in their posts, urging that the
     campaign continue. Since Anonymous is a collective, activists can pick
     and choose which actions they will participate in. that means in his
     case that those activists who want to refrain from the campaign will and
     those who want to participate will continue it.

      

     This will to continue was manifested on Oct. 29, the personal website of
     Gustavo RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the Mexican state
     of Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from Anonymous Mexico
     stating that Rosario was aZeta Do we know if that claim is true? If so,
     lets note it because it shows that Anonymous does have the ability to
     dig up factual \"dirt\" about the Veracruz govt. officials .  It was also
     reflected in the tone of the Oct. 31 message. Some activists associated
     with Anonymous clearly feel compelled to continue with the campaign due
     to the outpouring of public support they received in the wake of the
     media coverage. According to the Oct 31. Video statement:

      

     a**we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the
     voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the
     side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in
     critical moments like the one they currently live in.a**

      

     We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the
     campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

      

     Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
     better than Star Trek disagree...star wars all the way) 

      

     The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
     place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even
     degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them torturing,
     executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They also
     frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them.  As
     demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in September, Los
     Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary capability to trace
     online activity to people in thephysical world. It is not known if they
     employ their own team of dedicated cyber experts or if they rely on
     sources within the Mexican government a** although the most likely
     answer is probably a little of both. 

      

      

     In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
     following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK have
     arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly
     participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of
     activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted against the Turkish
     government for its efforts to establish a national internet filtering
     system.

      

     Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts lightly.
     Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that will damage
     Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this group has
     decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in some sort of
     response. The big question is: do theypossess the capability to
     effectively trace the organizers of the Anonymousaction against them?

      

     One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is intentionally
     amorphous a** it is also as transnational as the internet, and it would
     not be surprising if many of those chosen to participate in the
     operation against Los Zetas are located outside of Mexico in locations
     such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside the immediate reach of Los
     Zetas.

      

     But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way.  If
     Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an internet cafe,
     behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads, it will be very
     difficult to prove that they were not  associated with  Anonymous.  As
     Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is dangerous business.

      

      

     The Big Picture

      

     One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way in
     which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican middle and
     upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal cartels and
     theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in Mexico who are
     fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like
     Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen are being caught in
     a terrible bind. On one hand, they are receiving ever-increasing
     extortion demands from the cartels, while at the same time their
     business revenues are dwindling because people are afraid to go out due
     to the violence associated with those same cartels. This is forcing many
     businessmen out of business. It is also creating a great deal of
     frustration and resentment.

      

     At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries
     in the world for journalists, and many media companies practice heavy
     self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the September
     blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog del Narco, have also
     exhibited strong signs of fear inspired self-censorship.   This means
     that the legitimate press is not able to be of any real aid to the
     Mexican people. watch normative...

      

     Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
     well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymousa**
     original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some people to
     begin to talk about

     vigilante groups to fight the cartels a** though that has been attempted
     before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
     ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
     group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

      

     This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely
     on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for
     assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form of
     cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a safe way
     to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If this occurs,
     we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta controlled areas
     providing information to Anonymous, but citizens from all over the
     country.The only thing is that I don't see what Anonymous can really do
     to los Zetas.  I mean they would have the dirt on officials in the
     government who may be Zetas, but what will the Mexican government do
     about it? I don't see the US govt. being able to do anything about that
     either.  For example, what happened to the guy Gustavo Torres in
     response to the claim by Anonymous.

      

     Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in an
     effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also very
     well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information on Los
     Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more reason for
     Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.

      
     one interesting angle is that anonymous depends on anonymity -- and
     particularly novice self-styled, self-appointed members are not
     necessarily in a position to adequately guard their own autonomy

     Also, has autonomous struck out at entities as violent and capable as
     the cartels before? or is this a new move (meaning that even the
     experienced people have no practical experience in making judgments
     about dangers to individuals and the life-and-death consequences of
     dealing with the cartels...)

     If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
     Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
     releasing sensitive information what kind of sensitive information? to
     the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration in an attempt to damage Los
     Zetas. This would be an incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous
     has viewed itself as an opponent of the U.S. government in cases like
     Wikileaks.  do we have any indication that they would do this rather
     than just making it public? What to be careful if this is how we are
     going to conclude...
","2011-11-01 22:32:58",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1016464_re-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs-zeta.html","ashley.harrison@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1017020,"Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta conflict
	in context
","     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 4:45:43 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

      Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

     On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a message to
     the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing with its
     campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
     governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

      

     The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
     proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It also
     urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct physical
     pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy Fawkes
     masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or physical world
     activities.[Is this universally or just in Mexico?  The former points to
     problems with LE cracking down on them, the latter specifically to
     cartel retribution]  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic conspirator who was
     involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament in 1605, and who has
     become somewhat of an Anarchist icon in the United Kingdom. The British
     celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each year on Nov. 5, and the day has special
     meaning for the anarchists.  

      

     It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous set
     Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous associate
     who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The Anonymous
     associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign
     called Operation Paperstorm.

      

     The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,
     dubbed a**# OpCartela** is dangerous and noted that the collective would
     be assembling a hand-picked group of known and trusted associates to
     participate in a special task force to execute the operation.[hahahaha,
     this says something about leadership] It asked supporters to use a
     software widget[WC. is this the correct term?] they had developed in
     order to anonymously pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to
     the task force, which will then distribute it. 

      

     With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not
     backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be
     useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous
     and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential implications.

      

     Context

      

     First it issignificant to understand that the physical? geographic?
     epicenter of this event is Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place
     over the past few months in terms of Mexicoa**s cartel wars. The port
     city also serves as a critical transportation hub for the narcotics
     smuggling activities of the Los Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor
     has identified Veracruz as [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
     ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the Los
     Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

      

     One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
     cartela**s push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
     ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
     Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of over
     50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On Oct. 25,
     Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, a**El Bam
     Bam,a** who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that in
     Veracruz at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from both
     the Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

      

     Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective begin
     to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what Anonymous saw
     as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas cartel, they launched
     Operation Paperstorm, in which activists who associated themselves with
     the Anonymous collective distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz
     claiming the state government supports Los Zetas.  They conducted major
     leaflet distributions on Aug. 13, 20, and 29. They also released videos
     to the internet on Aug. 26 and 29, condemning the State of Veracruz.
     (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous video, Los Zetas allegedly kidnapped
     one of the activists involved in Operation Paperstorm.)

      

     Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting the
     stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and their bodies
     hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state.  Signs
     left with the bodies signified that Los Zetas had killed the pair
     because they had posted information pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs
     that specialize in reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the
     body of Marisol Macias Casteneda was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo
     Laredo.   Macias who worked for a local newspaper allegedly posted on
     cartel blogs using the nickname a**Laredo Girl.a** A message found with
     her body noted that she was killed by Los Zetas due to her online
     activities.

      

     Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for
     a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against the
     official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was killed by
     Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their attack on the
     Veracruz state website was because of the death of Laredo Girl. [can you
     attempt to explain why they linked it with veracruz?]

      

     It is also important to recognize that some members of Anonymous [again
     I hate referring to Anonymous as one entity] was also unhappy with the
     State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to prosecute two
     individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug.
     25. The false reports alleged that a group of children had been abducted
     from a Veracruz school and the panic caused by the report allegedly
     resulted in some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed
     to the school to check o n their children. The so-called a**twitter
     terroristsa** were initially charged with offenses that could have
     carried a 30-year sentence. Those involved in this campaign from
     Anonymous, which claims absolute freedom of speech on the internet as
     one of its foundational principles, took umbrage with this stiff penalty
     for the Twitter case a** especially because it stood in stark contrast
     with the impunity many cartel figures enjoy in Mexico. 

      

      

     Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous threatened
     Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous activist,
     Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the approaching
     Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
     ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

      

     Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a great
     deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very interesting
     response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast that it is a
     collective of people and not an organization.  As some
     Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
     accounts[does this mean accounts of people in support of the attack?],
     suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a hoax and
     claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other activists suggested
     that the campaign should be suspended. Still other activists became more
     strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign
     continue. Since Anonymous is a collective, activists can pick and choose
     which actions they will participate in. that means in his case that
     those activists who want to refrain from the campaign will and those who
     want to participate will continue it.  [i see how this paragraph fits
     into your analysis the way you have it written, but I think it might go
     better at the front.  You could use the 'anonymous discussion' as a
     trigger, explain it's \"collective\" qualities and then go into the rest
     of the analysis.  This way I feel much less bad about how we refer to
     'anonymous']

      

     This will to continue was manifested[something is off in the previous
     part of the sentence] on Oct. 29, the personal website of Gustavo
     RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the Mexican state of
     Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from Anonymous Mexico
     stating that Rosario was aZeta.  It was also reflected in the tone of
     the Oct. 31 message. Some activists associated with Anonymous clearly
     feel compelled to continue with the campaign due to the outpouring[WC. 
     Did they really get an outpouring? seemed like they got a lot of
     criticism and also support for going against the cartels] of public
     support they received in the wake of the media coverage. According to
     the Oct 31. Video statement: (did we see specific examples of \"public
     support\" or are we just going off of the youtube statement CLAIMING that
     they got lots of support?)

      

     a**we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the
     voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the
     side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in
     critical moments like the one they currently live in.a**

      

     We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the
     campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

      

     Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
     better than Star Trek. What's Star Trek?) 

      

     The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
     place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even
     degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them torturing,
     executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They also
     frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them.  As
     demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in September, Los
     Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary capability to trace
     online activity to people in thephysical world. It is not known if they
     employ their own team of dedicated cyber experts or if they rely on
     sources within the Mexican government a** although the most likely
     answer is probably a little of both.  [what about just old-fashioned
     human intelligence?  Many people discuss blogger identities both online
     and offline, something they could've picked up without network-based
     forensics.  'My brother blogs about...' and on from there.  Or by
     tracing the information the blogger had in the real world, and
     eventually getting back to the blogger]

   Tristan was talking about how the cartels were even kidnapping computer
   science students and forcing them to track anonymous down. Need to check
   with him on specifics though

      

      

     In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
     following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK have
     arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly
     participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of
     activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted against the Turkish
     government for its efforts to establish a national internet filtering
     system. [Need something to make a point here, maybe something like:] 
     The reality is that there is no such thing as anonymity, on the internet
     or otherwise.  Any action leaves some trail, whether digitial or
     physical.  In the same way that hackers from Anonymous develop exploits
     to access confidential information, law enforcement agencies and even
     cartels could get around encryption, examine patterns of activity and
     investigate leads that in the end identify a real person behind a
     computer. 

      

     Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts lightly.
     Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that will damage
     Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this group has
     decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in some sort of
     response. The big question is: do theypossess the capability to
     effectively trace the organizers of the Anonymousaction against them?

      

     One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is intentionally
     amorphous a** it is also as transnational as the internet, and it would
     not be surprising if many of those chosen to participate in the
     operation against Los Zetas are located outside of Mexico in locations
     such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside the immediate reach of Los
     Zetas.(the US is not out of reach, at least not on the border:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111005-mexico-security-memo-defining-cross-border-violence)

      

     But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way.  If
     Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an internet cafe,
     behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads, it will be very
     difficult to prove that they were not  associated with  Anonymous.  As
     Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is dangerous business.(it
     would certainly be within the cartel's capacity to kill innocents and
     blame anonymous in the attempt to intimidate them into stopping their
     activity)

      

      

     The Big Picture

      

     One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way in
     which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican middle and
     upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal cartels and
     theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in Mexico who are
     fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like
     Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen are being caught in
     a terrible bind. On one hand, they are receiving ever-increasing
     extortion demands from the cartels, while at the same time their
     business revenues are dwindling because people are afraid to go out due
     to the violence associated with those same cartels. This is forcing many
     businessmen[enterprises?] out of business. It is also creating a great
     deal of frustration and resentment.

      

     At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries
     in the world for journalists, and many media organizations practice
     heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the
     September blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog del Narco,
     have also exhibited strong signs of fear inspired self-censorship.  
     This means that the legitimate press is not able to be of any real aid
     to the Mexican people.

      

     Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
     well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymousa**
     original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some people to
     begin to talk about

     vigilante groups to fight the cartels a** though that has been attempted
     before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
     ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
     group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

      

     This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely
     on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for
     assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form of
     cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a perceived
     safe way to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If this
     occurs, we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta controlled
     areas providing information to Anonymous, but citizens from all over the
     country.

      

     Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in an
     effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also very
     well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information on Los
     Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more reason for
     Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.

      

     If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
     Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
     releasing sensitive information to the U.S. Drug Enforcement
     Administration in an attempt to damage Los Zetas. This would be an
     incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous has viewed itself as an
     opponent of the U.S. government in cases like Wikileaks. (Anonymous has
     made it clear that the value they provide is a safe and private medium
     through which to pass this damning information. Their stated priority is
     to publicize information that people send to them. But, do they have a
     way to protect their sources? They likely don't have much collective
     experience in source handling. I imagine a lot of the details they get
     could put their sources in serious trouble. If I were a semi-smart
     Mexican who knew some super detailed information on the cartels, I would
     think long and hard before handing it over to these guys. This may be a
     separate piece entirely, but I think we need a discussion on source
     handling and how good hackers don't necessarily make good intelligence
     agents.)

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   STRATFOR

   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967

   www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-01 23:42:42",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1017020_re-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs-zeta.html","ben.west@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1017409,"Re: GREECE - Greece just announced major surprise changes to its
	top	brass
","   On it. Will send out compilation shortly of what we know.

   --
   Kristen A. Cooper
   Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: (512) 744-4093 M: (512) 619-9414

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 5:59:17 PM
   Subject: Re: GREECE - Greece just announced major surprise changes to
   its        top        brass

   Agree completely with kristen. No sane politician would do this without a
   reason. Jest happened is crap.

   Someone start crawling over facts and sources. This is a nato matter so
   brussels should be buzzing.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kristen Cooper <kristen.cooper@stratfor.com>
   Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 1 Nov 2011 16:52:43 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: GREECE - Greece just announced major surprise changes to its
   top brass
   I'm mostly trying to play devil advocate here - but if these are issues
   that were long-standing or of limited significance why announce this when
   the entire cabinet including the minister of defense is supposed to be in
   an emergency cabinet?

   --
   Kristen A. Cooper
   Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: (512) 744-4093 M: (512) 619-9414

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Nate Hughes\" <nate.hughes@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Kristen Cooper\" <kristen.cooper@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 5:35:41 PM
   Subject: Re: GREECE - Greece just announced major surprise changes to its
   top brass

   another demographic to keep in mind is the civilian employees of the MoD
   (don't know if this is who we're talking about here or not...). These guys
   traditionally enjoy the privileges of state employees in terms of pension
   benefits and job security, but are likely to take a big -- even
   disproportionate -- hit as the military institutes whatever cuts but tries
   to retain as much combat capability as possible...

   On 11/1/11 4:26 PM, Kristen Cooper wrote:

       the Association of Support and Cooperation of the State Armed Forces 

     That is the equivalent of the military's union and its not clear who the
     \"executives of the Greek Armed Forces is\". The defense ministry was the
     first to condemn these guys.
     It is not at all clear that this was a cabinet decision. He needs the
     support of the whole cabinet and the Prime Minister and the President to
     do this.
     On Nov 1, 2011, at 5:18 PM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

       This is not the retired officers:

       On Sunday in a measured but pointed open letter to the government, the
       Association of Support and Cooperation of the State Armed Forces, the
       professional association of full-time staff, warned that the Greek
       Armed Forces are monitoring the governmenta**s moves a**with increased
       concerna** and that their confidence in the a**intentions of the
       statea** have been a**shakena**.

       a**The executives of the Greek Armed Forces are monitoring with
       increased concern the latest developments regarding issues related to
       their needs after retirement,a** the letter reads.

       If the Defense Minister is acting on a cabinet decision I don't see
       why he wouldn't have the power to do that.

       On 11/01/2011 09:49 PM, Kristen Cooper wrote:

         The defense minister saying he is going to replace the military
         leadership that was appointed by the party that appointed him as
         defense minister with his \"own people\".
         That isn't normal. The defense minister does not have the power to
         legally do that on his own.
         Papandreou just finished up his speech to the parliament like 30
         mins ago. The finance minister, Venizelos, never attended -
         allegedly for health reasons.
         There are varying degrees between military coup and routine shuffle.
         If the prime minister is about to be outed - maybe this is about
         cutting out the people that are more loyal to him than to the party.
         If PASOK is about lose control over the government, it doesn't
         matter who they appoint because the new government would just
         replace them.
         Also, the \"trouble brewing in the ranks\" that you are referring to
         is from retired officers who want their pension funds paid in full.
         That is different than dissent from active members of the military.
         I'm not saying this is a coup - but it is unusual and, I don't buy
         resistance to budget cuts as a sufficient answer - particularly when
         its unclear who is going to be responsible for enacting those budget
         cuts at the moment.
         On Nov 1, 2011, at 4:32 PM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

           I think the military coup theory is a bit far-fetched honestly.

           This was announced earlier as probably happening today:

           On Tuesday, he convened an unscheduled meeting of the Government
           Council for Foreign Affairs and Defence, the supreme
           decision-making body on national defense.

           According to sources within the ministry quoted by Greek daily
           Eleftherotypia, Beglitis is planning to replace the leadership of
           the military with \"his own people.\" Unnamed officials described
           his actions as \"politically mad\" and \"militarily dangerous.\"

           http://euobserver.com/19/114133

           We also knew that trouble had been brewing in the ranks:
           http://euobserver.com/13/113821

           On 11/01/2011 07:48 PM, Kristen Cooper wrote:

             All of the replaced officers were appointed by the ruling party
             in 2009 and 2010. They knew cuts to the military budget were
             coming - and they haven't made a show of resisting them.

             --
             Kristen A. Cooper
             Eurasia Analyst
             STRATFOR
             T: (512) 744-4093 M: (512) 619-9414

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: \"Nate Hughes\" <nate.hughes@stratfor.com>
             To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
             Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 2:08:43 PM
             Subject: Re: GREECE - Greece just announced major surprise
             changes to its        top brass

             no, but the perception within the Greek government may have been
             that these leaders were unwilling to accept cuts below a certain
             level. They may have replaced them with more ambitious,
             politically malleable replacements willing to accept deeper cuts
             without making a public show of it. That may be a perception or
             based on internal signals from these guys. We haven't seen
             anything publicly.

             That's a potential scenario, not necessarily what's going on.
             Point is that this isn't about solving Greece's problems, but
             that given all the political shuffling in Greece, there are a
             dozen viable scenarios where this is just a symptom or
             reflection of all of the broader shuffling.

             The only critical potential red alert scenario we need to be
             examining right now is either the pre-emptive move to stave off
             a coup or setting the stage for some sort of military-instigated
             hail mary by the powers that be to change the equation since the
             existing equation is intolerable and insoluble. As long as this
             isn't one of those two -- either Greece just barely avoided a
             military coup or is actually setting one up -- we can return to
             our discussion from the blue sky.

             On 11/1/11 12:54 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

               replacing hte top brass doesn't resolve your need for massive
               defense cuts

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

               From: \"Peter Zeihan\" <zeihan@stratfor.com>
               To: analysts@stratfor.com
               Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 12:52:22 PM
               Subject: Re: GREECE - Greece just announced major surprise
               changes to its        top brass

               just so we're all starting from the same place, we've seeing
               NOTHING before today to suggest that a military government is
               in the making

               HOWEVER, this is a piece of the world that has wavered between
               military control and non-statehood for about 2570 out of the
               past 2700 years, some of which are within living memory -
               democracy is not the normal state of affairs

               as such military movements are something we've been keeping an
               eye open for -- don't know (yet) if that's what we're seeing
               here...it could simply be that massive defense cuts are needed
               in order to meet budgetary goals (and greece has resisted them
               strongly so far)

               On 11/1/11 12:45 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

                 what talk has there been so far in Greece of imposing
                 emergency rule by the military/govt? im sure that's
                 something they've had to contemplate. what's the nature of
                 mil-civ relations in Greece?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

                 From: \"Bayless Parsley\" <bayless.parsley@stratfor.com>
                 To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
                 Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 12:44:25 PM
                 Subject: Re: GREECE - Greece just announced major surprise
                 changes to its        top brass

                 this is not really helpful, only sending along because
                 apparently people in the financial world have been joking
                 about this as the optimal option for the past week.
                 The Appalling Greek Solution: A Military Coup
                 2 comments, 0 called-out
                 + Comment now
                 http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2011/10/26/the-real-greek-solution-a-military-coup/

                 Therea**s a not very funny joke going around the financial
                 markets at the moment, that the real solution to the Greek
                 problem is a military coup. (Just to make it clear, no, of
                 course Ia**m not advocating a coup. See below) Instead of
                 Germany trying to fund the Greek debt they should instead
                 sponsor such a coup:

                   Only half in jest is it sometimes said that a better use
                   for Germanya**s money than pouring it down the drain of
                   further bail-outs would be to sponsor a Greek military
                   coup and solve the problem that waya*|..

                 The reason being that a military dictatorship cannot be in
                 the European Union. Thus, if there was such a military coup
                 Greece would immediately have to leave the EU and thus
                 whatever happened to its economy would simply be someone
                 elsea**s problem.

                 Whata**s so sad, or bitter if you prefer, about the joke is
                 that, if we ignore the little problem of it being a military
                 dictatorship, this would in fact be a good solution to Greek
                 woes. They simply cannot, under any circumstances, pay the
                 current debts so theya**re going to have to default. But
                 default in itself doesna**t solve the major problem, which
                 is that theya**re caught in a monetary union at a price
                 which makes Greek labour woefully uncompetitive.

                 Which means in turn that Greek wages, Greek living
                 standards, have to fall in order to make that labour
                 competitive. Or, if you prefer, Greek labour productivity
                 needs to rise very strngly and very quickly. Either path is
                 extremely difficult and painful. The third alternative is
                 for Greece to leave the currency union and then devalue the
                 New Drachma.

                 However, the way that the European Union and the eurozone
                 are set up a country leaving the monetary union would be
                 considered to be a shocking defeat for the whole European
                 ideal. What the military coup would allow is, as I say
                 ignoring that little detail about it being a military coup,
                 what should probably happen and would certainly be the least
                 painful way for Greece to deal with its problems: default
                 and exit from the euro.

                 That we have to joke about such horrible things as a
                 military takeover though does show quite how dysfunctional
                 European politics has become. No one really wants to talk
                 about a dictatorship as the solution to a fairly simple
                 economic problem but that is what wea**re reduced to as the
                 current system simple will not take that reasonably simple
                 solution seriously.

                 Update: Ia**ve changed the headline from a**Reala** to
                 a**Appallinga** just to make clear that of course Ia**m not
                 advocating a coup. Yes, of course I know my Greek history. I
                 can see that therea**s at least one translation of this post
                 into Greek out there and I assume that some of the sublety
                 of the English language original has got lost. I was not, do
                 not and would not advocate something like a military coup as
                 a solution to a simple economic problem. The point of the
                 post was to point out that there is a dark and bitter joke
                 going around stating that given that the EU is so
                 mismanaging this situation then that might be the best path
                 left. No, no one who tells the joke nor I in repeating it
                 think that this is the best path: or even an acceptable one.
                 The point being made is that the EU is so mismanaging
                 matters. This is a dark and bitter comment on the EU, not
                 advocacy of a course of action.

                 On 11/1/11 12:28 PM, Kristen Cooper wrote:

                   Omar and Paul are helping me get the backgrounds on the
                   guys that were replaced and who they are being replaced
                   with.

                   If you are going to have a coup from the military against
                   the government then it usually comes from the lower
                   echelon guys - which these guys probably are not. But this
                   is the equivalent of Obama and Panetta replacing the
                   entire joint chiefs.

                   All of the guys on this committee are members of the
                   ruling cabinet - members of the Parliament. The parliament
                   is supposed to be on lockdown debating the no-confidence
                   vote. All other business is supposed to be on hold. In
                   that case, they shouldn't be holding this meeting at all.
                   Let alone making surprise announcements like that.

                   As prime minister, Papandreou is supposed to be on this
                   committee. We need to find out if he was there.

                   Another thing, until this June, the current finance
                   minister and deputy prime minister, Evangelos Venizelos,
                   was the national defence minster. So, in theory, he should
                   have a pretty close read on the military's top brass,
                   knowing who is loyal and who isn't.
                   --
                   Kristen A. Cooper
                   Eurasia Analyst
                   STRATFOR
                   T: (512) 744-4093 M: (512) 619-9414

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

                   From: \"Omar Lamrani\" <omar.lamrani@stratfor.com>
                   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
                   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 1:09:46 PM
                   Subject: Re: GREECE - Greece just announced major surprise
                   changes to its        top brass

                   This is indeed rather huge. This is essentially replacing
                   the entire top military leadership in one go. There must
                   be a significant reason for this. Could it possibly be
                   military dissent against the Govt.?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

                   From: \"Kristen Cooper\" <kristen.cooper@stratfor.com>
                   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
                   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 11:59:33 AM
                   Subject: Fwd: GREECE - Greece just announced major
                   surprise changes to its        top brass

                   The government committee that appoints the top brass for
                   all service divisions is composed entirely of the ruling
                   party. I'm looking into the history of these guys.

                   This is not typical to replace the head of all of your
                   armed forces in a surprise announcement all at once.

                   --
                   Kristen A. Cooper
                   Eurasia Analyst
                   STRATFOR
                   T: (512) 744-4093 M: (512) 619-9414

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

                   From: \"Kristen Cooper\" <kristen.cooper@stratfor.com>
                   To: watchofficer@stratfor.com, \"Analyst List\"
                   <analysts@stratfor.com>
                   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 12:53:50 PM
                   Subject: GREECE - Greece just announced major surprise
                   changes to its top brass

                   We need to look into this. I don't think this is routine
                   at first glance.

                   http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/49916

                   Changes afoot for the top brass                           
                    1 Nov 2011                                               
                   (File                                                     
                         photo)                                              
                                         (File photo)                        
                                                                             
                   [IMG]                                                     
                   In a surprise move, the defence minister proposed on      
                   Tuesday evening the complete replacement of the           
                   countrya**s top brass.                                    
                                                                             
                   At an extraordinary meeting of the Government Council of  
                   Foreign Affairs and Defence (Kysea), which comprises the  
                   prime minister and other key cabinet members, Defence     
                   Minister Panos Beglitis proposed the following changes to 
                   the army, navy and air force and the general staff:       
                     * General Ioannis Giagkos, chief of the Greek National  
                       Defence General Staff, to be replaced by Lieutenant   
                       General Michalis Kostarakos                           
                     * Lieutenant General Fragkos Fragkoulis, chief of the   
                       Greek Army General Staff, to be replaced by           
                       lieutenant general Konstantinos Zazias                
                     * Lieutenant General Vasilios Klokozas, chief of the    
                       Greek Air Force, to be replaced by air marshal        
                       Antonis Tsantirakis                                   
                     * Vice-Admiral Dimitrios Elefsiniotis, chief of the     
                       Greek Navy General Staff, to be replaced by           
                       Rear-Admiral Kosmas Christidis                        
                   It is understood that the personnel changes took many     
                   members of the government and of the armed forces by      
                   surprise. (Athens News)                                   

                   --
                   Kristen A. Cooper
                   Eurasia Analyst
                   STRATFOR
                   T: (512) 744-4093 M: (512) 619-9414

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +216 22 73 23 19
 www.STRATFOR.com

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +216 22 73 23 19
 www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-01 23:10:48",1,"2012-03-07 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1017409_re-greece-greece-just-announced-major-surprise-changes-to.html","kristen.cooper@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,friedman@att.blackberry.net",""
1017421,"Re: G3* - ARGENTINA/MIL - Govt secretly developing mid-range missiles
","   How much time, technology and money does this type of improvement/upgrade
   take?  I know they've been at it for a year, but Argentina has a tendency
   to talk big but not have enough money or organization for follow through. 
   (for example Paris Club debt - they announced that payment in Fall 2008
   and still have not negotiated terms with the Club nor has the
   govt/Congress agreed on using reserves to pay the debt)  Just want to
   check how realistic implementing these changes is.

   On 11/23/2010 9:28 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     In Dec. 2009, Arg test launched the Gradicom PXC, which used solid fuel
     tech to launch a little bit over 100 km. The aim now is to improve the
     Condor II missile (which was reportedly abandoned by the Menem admin in
     the 90s). The Condor II was supposed to have a range of 1,000 miles and
     a payload of 500 kilos.  The med-term goal, according to this report, is
     for Arg to develop mid-range missiles that could carry a payload of at
     least 500 kilos up to 300 km, which would reach the Falklands.
     Nate, any thoughts on this?
     On Nov 23, 2010, at 9:21 AM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

       Falklands are about 300 miles (482 km) off the coast of Argentina. 
       I'm not much of missile expert to comment on the weapon's capabilities

       Also, to put this in context.  Yesterday was a new holiday in
       Argentina - Dia de la nacionalidad.  So there was lots of hype about
       Falkland sovereignty, etc.

         Rodger says look into this see if they can hit the falklands

         On 11/23/10 8:28 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

           Argentine Govt secretly developing mid-range missiles
           dialogbot@smtp.stratfor.com
           - Buenos Aires Perfil's Fernando Oz reports on 20 November that
           the Defence Ministry is working \"in secret\" on the development of
           a medium-range missile, Gradicom PXC 2009, and tested it
           successfully in Cordoba last December.The Planning Ministry is
           also involved in the project and plans to produce the missile on
           an industrial scale.Nobody in the Defense Ministry wants to
           comment and the US Embassy said that \"we will make no comments.\"
           En secreto, el Gobierno disena un misil nacional de mediano
           alcance
           21 de Noviembre de 2010 07:41  -
           http://www.contexto.com.ar/vernota.php?id=39144

           Desde el Ministerio de Defensa desarrollan el arma y el ministro
           De Vido lo alienta. Las Fuerzas Armadas argentinas lo usarian y el
           remanente se exportaria. Sucede al Condor II, el proyecto que veto
           EEUU.

           El Gobierno trabaja en secreto en el desarrollo de un misil de
           mediano alcance que podria igualar las prestaciones del Condor II.

           La prueba experimental del cohete Gradicom PXC 2009, que se
           realizo hace un ano, fue motivo de festejos en el Edificio
           Libertador. Ahora, los cientificos y tecnicos que trabajan en el
           proyecto tienen el visto bueno para repotenciarlo, dotarlo de un
           moderno sistema de guiado, y producirlo a escala industrial.

           Despues de realizar una profunda transformacion de la politica de
           derechos humanos en las Fuerza Armadas, la ministra de Defensa,
           Nilda Garre, busca modernizar los sistemas de defensa y ampliar la
           capacidad disuasiva del pais a traves \"del crecimiento tecnologico
           y la produccion para la defensa\".

           A principios de diciembre de 2009 se probo con exito, en la
           localidad cordobesa de Serrezuela, el lanzamiento del cohete
           Gradicom PXC 2009.

           Su combustible solido lo hace apto para aplicaciones militares,
           aunque aun no se lo utilizo con cargas explosivas y el dia de su
           bautismo de lanzamiento apenas supero los cien kilometros.

           \"Quisieramos que el nuevo misil supere los 500 kilometros de
           distancia, que tenga una propulsion con separacion y guiado, pero
           falta mucho para eso\", confio una fuente cientifica del Ministerio
           de Defensa que esta trabajando en el proyecto.

           El proyecto Gradicom (Grandes Dimensiones Compuestos) es mejorar
           \"tecnologicamente\" al misil Condor II, que fue desmantelado por el
           ex presidente Carlos Menem en los 90, como consecuencia de la
           politica exterior basada en las \"relaciones carnales\" con los
           Estados Unidos.

           El Condor II tenia un alcance de mil kilometros y podia
           transportar una bomba de 500 kilos. Por ser un misil de alcance
           medio y su uso estaba cuestionado por el Regimen de Control de la
           Tecnologia Misilistica (MTCR).

           El MTCR, establecido en abril de 1987, es una sociedad informal y
           voluntaria entre 34 paises -Argentina se incorporo en 1993- para
           prevenir la proliferacion de tecnologia misilistica. Una de sus
           misiones es contener la extension de los sistemas sin tripulacion
           de la entrega para las armas nucleares, especificamente los que
           podrian llevar una carga util minima de 500 km, al menos, hasta
           300 km.

            

           Pero en el Edificio Libertador aseguran que el proyecto Gradicom
           no viola ningun tratado internacional.

           Una segunda fuente, allegada a la Secretaria de Planeamiento del
           Ministerio de Defensa, reconocio a este diario que se trabaja para
           \"aumentar el alcance\" del misil, aunque aclaro que \"todo se hace
           dentro del marco de los tratados internacionales firmados por el
           pais\".

           La idea del Ministerio de Planificacion, tambien involucrado en el
           proyecto, es potenciar el nuevo misil y llevarlo a escala
           industrial para la exportacion y uso militar de las Fuerzas
           Armadas argentinas. Pero para eso, faltan otros pasos: \"Lo
           primero, que fue la propulsion, ya esta. Ahora estamos trabajando
           en la propulsion con separacion, y una tercera etapa sera la
           telemetria, los sensores. Lo mas complejo es el sistema de guiado
           y control completo\", explico uno de los cientificos que trabaja en
           el proyecto que se esta disenando en el Centro de Investigaciones
           Cientificas y Tecnicas de las Fuerzas Armadas (Citefa).

           \"No vamos hacer comentarios sobre el tema\", se limitaron a decir
           en la Embajada de Estados Unidos en Buenos Aires, cuando PERFIL
           consulto sobre el nuevo emprendimiento militar argentino. En los
           90, fueron las presiones norteamericanas las que terminaron con el
           Condor II.

           En la cartera que conduce Garre, nadie quiere hablar sobre las
           etapas del misterioso misil. \"Se informo lo que se debia en su
           momento, el resto es secreto porque se esta trabajando\", se
           disculparon en el entorno de la titular de Defensa. El ministro de
           Planificacion, Julio De Vido, es uno de los mas entusiasmados con
           el proyecto que en la Casa Rosada califican como \"una cuestion de
           Estado\".

           \"Vamos a poner Fabricaciones Militares (que depende de
           Planificacion) a disposicion del Ministerio de Defensa para tener
           la posibilidad de fabricar en serie el PCX 2009\", aseguro De Vido
           cuando los tecnicos civiles y militares le explicaron cuales eran
           los proximos objetivos.

           Garre y los ascensos

           La ministra de Defensa, Nilda Garre, afirmo en relacion con la
           polemica por los ascensos de los oficiales superiores de las
           Fuerzas Armadas que \"la Presidenta, como Comandante en Jefe de las
           Fuerzas Armadas, tiene facultades discrecionales y por razones de
           merito, oportunidad y conveniencia puede seleccionar o sacar de la
           lista que le han elevado las Fuerzas, a traves del Ministerio de
           Defensa, alguno de esos oficiales propuestos\".

           La funcionaria explico que \"de ninguna manera importa de quien es
           hijo el candidato a considerar\", y agrego que \"hay gente que con
           su accionar y predica ha demostrado una vocacion democratica
           clara\".

           Senalo que \"algunos de ellos son hijos de personas que estan en
           este momento condenadas por delitos graves\".

           La funcionaria cito como ejemplos, el cargo del actual general de
           brigada Diaz Bessone, con quien \"he tratado esporadicamente y es
           un hombre democratico, claramente no suscribe las ideas de su
           padre\". En este sentido, explico Garre, \"se elige el mejor
           perfil\". /perfil.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
","2010-11-23 16:39:35",1,"2012-02-27 22:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1017421_re-g3-argentina-mil-govt-secretly-developing-mid-range.html","allison.fedirka@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1017647,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
   the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
   only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
   responsible.

   2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
   responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
   intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
   just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
   indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
   department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

   Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

   Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short, SIGINT
   is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication devices,
   and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining computer
   network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while SIGINT may be
   used with other intelligence disciplines in order to identify a hacker, it
   is not necessary and is no more related than any other intel discipline.
   SIGINT could help you identify a computer devices (not the operator)
   emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis, which is also separate from
   SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could help in providing methods to
   decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT wouldn't obtain those
   messages.

   In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
   are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and technologies
   tailored specifically for computer activity.

   NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of technological
   demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous resources in R&D, so
   I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA. But their SIGINT
   capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

   Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor for
   the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing operations on
   the scale of causing physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment .
   Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas
   Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most prolific example of
   a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted mainly outside of the
   cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of this doesn't matter?
   Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks have physically damaged
   secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think you are downplaying too
   much the significance of exposing corporate secrets, halting businesses'
   revenues, and embarrassing State actors by defacing their websites.

   On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
         arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say foreign
         intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected? No, of
         course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so good to
         be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers.  I'm saying
         they are more detectable than you think.  There is no such thing as
         truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will that trail in
         every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but it can lead to
         a place, an organization, and often, an individual. 

         2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
         responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
         cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case
         HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
         capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers.
         NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers but it does
         not make it SIGINT.

         Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

         The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many people
         assume there is no attribution because there is no response, but I
         don't think that is accurate.  Many people say this, because no
         attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes, they do, and if
         they think that is the primary reason for lack of response, then I
         think they are wrong. 

         3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new laptop
         and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack involves much
         more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way there is an
         attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is one for a
         cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to trace as a
         nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood with much more
         serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more complicated attack,
         however, involves pre-operational surveillance, developing exploits,
         developing programs and code, gaining access, exploiting that, and
         carrying out an attack.  Discovering exploits and writing code can
         be done entirely offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel
         agencies. Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point
         of the exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point
         is, if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
         remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
         IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
         cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
         more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
         linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
         Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
         to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
         things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time for
         your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the target,
         a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur without
         network activity. Look at everything that went into Stuxnet as a
         great example, that couldn't be done with one person with a new
         laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of
         necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
         discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage to
         extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber
         attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  
         All of this activity provides activity and evidence which helps for
         attribution.  Of course it is always possible to develop an attack,
         just like any other operation, that even the best law enforcement
         and national intelligence agencies have trouble or cannot
         attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that it's very difficult for
         someone to successfully use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ,
         MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute it.  How do you know if NSA
         or GHQ is effective in identifying hackers?I don't, but I'm
         confident they are far better than you are allowing for.    They may
         not choose to cover it if it is small scale crime, however. 
         On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
           cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
           that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
           with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
           the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from China,
           may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese government,
           but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese government's
           cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate there is little
           capability to distinguish.

           It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
           operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from
           SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual responsible
           for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have turned to
           SIGINT organizations for collections on computer related material,
           but this was due to the US being behind in cyber warfare, and not
           knowing where to assign responsibility. However, this has changed
           dramatically in the last couple of years.

           Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an
           extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a
           Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the online
           activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
           accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
           etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never use
           the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of
           my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible security
           cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

           Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
           these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to
           specific computer-related activities because of the difficulty in
           identifying individuals.

           I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be blown,
           would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common
           participant in \"Anonymous\" activities, was working for a State?
           Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that State
           agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what
           signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

           On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
             bit)

             1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
             actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but
             i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real
             case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
             people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
             as a serious or strategic threat. 

             2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually
             pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover,
             but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could probably
             still be attributed if important enough to those agencies.  The
             recent attack on Sony actually brings this issue up- Whoever is
             calling themselves anonymous denies they did it.  And keep in
             mind how much they have claimed an publicized attacks in the
             past, even before they were carried out.  The attack on the
             Playstation Network was more sophisticated than anonymous' usual
             work (though potentially coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS
             attacks that distracted Sony's IT security).  But whoever did
             it, again, no real damage came of it.  Congress is holding
             hearings over data security, but this is no different than the
             OC groups stealing your credit card information.  LE will go
             after them, have some success, but the threat is not that
             large. 
             On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

               Link: themeData

               I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
               have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
               nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
               threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
               (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most
               of the cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a Robin Hood
               of the internet . The interesting thing when it comes to their
               interactions with the cartels is the dubious role they play:
               at the same time they can be fighting crime by revealing
               cartel members/supporters, but they can also put lives in
               risk.

               However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
               Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can
               conduct a cyber attack under \"Anonymous\" is worrisome.
               (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

               If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
               websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
               know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
               interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
               far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries are
               they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use them
               to achieve any particular goal?

               On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                 nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything
                 else can build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the
                 threat they pose to innocent people caught up in the terror
                 that is Mexico.  By focusing on journalists or taxi drivers
                 they show little understanding of the situation.  This has
                 long term implications in not just Mexico.  They don't
                 consider the consequences of their actions and they act
                 without understanding the environment.  It was the same when
                 they released information on the Sony Playstation network to
                 protest Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                 On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                   Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                   discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on what
                   type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video
                   released by Anonymous, threatens revealing personal
                   information on cartels as well as states a member had been
                   kidnapped. I could not find any sources outside of
                   Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped.
                   According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
                   Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
                   posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
                   Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

                   Link: themeData
                   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                   distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government
                   websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with
                   a statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels,
                   including a video depicting a masked individual addressing
                   Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent
                   video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                   criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
                   identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                   journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
                   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
                   otherwise face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this
                   coming November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could
                   expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of releasing a
                   kidnapped member are not met. The potential of conflict
                   between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a
                   unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out
                   at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on
                   cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

                   What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                        o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                   security threat to Mexican cartels.
                        o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit
                   online media
                        o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico
                   to lash out at cartels

                   While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                   pose a threat
                        o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
                   identifiable information on cartel members
                        o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could
                   acquire on cartels
                        o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                   communications, identifiable information on cartels
                   members have to be considered in the realm of
                   possibilities for
                               Anonymous
                               o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability
                   to reveal illicit online activity (child pornography
                   rings)

                   Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                   ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                   result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                   limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting in
                   front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                   possible retribution. They may not even know the impact of
                   any online assault of cartels.
                        o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                   journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand
                   some of these individuals are forced to collude with
                   cartels.               Taxi drivers are often victims of
                   extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
                   identity of these individuals will not have a significant
                   impact on cartel                   operations. Politicans
                   have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
                   Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be
                   any consequences from this.
                        o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent
                   cartels are willing to go protect their operations.
                           o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                           o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                   science community before, coercing computer science majors
                   into working for them.
                           o    This provides the cartels with the
                   possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                    

                   On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                     Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                     idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                     here.

                     These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with
                     the discussion:

                          o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                     that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                          o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a
                     difference between stealing bank records from government
                     computers and overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                          o     There's no thought out process of what sort
                     of information could anon have on the cartels. What kind
                     of info is kept online and accessible to potential
                     attacks? You seem to be talking about identities, whose?
                     If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and businessmen
                     who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
                     Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in
                     previous instances. Was it because they revealed
                     operational details, because they acted as informants,
                     because they exposed links with officials or because
                     they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short,
                     what kind of information is damaging to the cartels
                     themselves?
                          o     Once you identify this info - think about if
                     anon can realistically access it and disseminate it so
                     it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any
                     intelligence capacity except for the technical ability
                     by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
                     certain networks and databases and steal information.
                     Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a
                     network that is connected to the internet (aka no
                     intranet)? Where else could information be found?
                     Government databases? Once we know what kind of
                     information is accessible, we can also know more about
                     the consequences of dissemination.
                          o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                     Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                     risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may not
                     understand the difference between an anon hacker and a
                     blogger.

                     On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                       wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                       -------- Original Message --------

                        Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                           Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                           From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
                       Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                             To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

                       you've got some of the issues here, but this is going
                       to need a lot more work

                       You need to lay out:

                       a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                       trigger section is unclear
                       b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                       is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                       capabilities
                       c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
                       anything
                       d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                       kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                       their connections

                       I also just want to point out that we have reasonable
                       reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very least has
                       some significant levels of sophistication in their
                       online presence, to include the use of cyber
                       currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no
                       reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
                       business online, in a protected fashion.

                       Karen Hooper
                       Latin America Analyst
                       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                       c: 512.750.7234
                       STRATFOR
                       www.stratfor.com
                       On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                       On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                       Link: themeData

                       Trigger

                       Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy,
                       hackers. Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group
                       famous for...?, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                       Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
                       criminal cartels, including a video released
                       depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
                       screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video
                       release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                       criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities
                       of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
                       politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
                       cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a
                       fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
                       The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal
                       cartels and hackers, presents an unprecedented war
                       front for the cartels. The vastly different operations
                       of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
                       Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in
                       handling. i believe that Anonymous has no experience
                       with the cartels. I do not believe for a second that
                       the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                        

                       In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                       mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                       reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
                       member this should be mentioned right up front.
                       Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit
                       back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
                       guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If
                       Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing information
                       on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
                       will likely respond with violence against individuals
                       revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean
                       Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
                       disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will
                       force the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous
                       threat complexity i don't understand what this means.
                       You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                       effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
                       against Anonymous remains unanswered . However,
                       cartels will continue their threats against any
                       individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
                       or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here.
                       against the cartels.

                        

                       The Battle Space

                       Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                       separate realities from each other. Anonymous operates
                       solely in sphere of the computer networks. Anonymous
                       does not experience geographical boundaries. All
                       personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber
                       space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical
                       people tho live in the real world. They have names and
                       addresses - although most of them are likely outside
                       of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their
                       technical capabilities in hacking. Any information
                       connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by
                       hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel
                       members in the midst of Mexico's population could be
                       quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
                       has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
                       Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings
                       in revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't
                       run operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money
                       via e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on
                       the web than the jihadists.)

                       Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's
                       power base consists of the perceived anonymity that
                       its members believe themselves to have, real or
                       otherwise, by operating through the internet. This
                       gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
                       and everything to practice general dickery. As the
                       popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only
                       a fraction of the large web of people who identify
                       themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious IT
                       capability. 

                       The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far
                       has been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement
                       Agencies.

                       The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets
                       in US and Mexican cities. They are run as a business,
                       always looking to maximize profits and expand. But
                       they are bricks and mortar commerce. Yes..... but they
                       use the internet to launder money and issue commands.
                       We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There is
                       no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a
                       similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
                       amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence.
                       Cartels like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing
                       different types of threats. Cartels are always
                       suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
                       While battling each other, cartels still face arrests
                       by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid
                       any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
                       have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and
                       online bloggers in order to cover details of their
                       operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for
                       this discussion. You need to focus on the possible
                       vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
                       have no cyber presence.

                        

                       Anonymous' Weapons

                       Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions
                       against criminal cartels has yet to be seen.
                       Anonymous' only ability to combat cartels lay in
                       information operations, mainly disseminating sensitive
                       information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
                       statements via social media and defaced websites in
                       Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As
                       Anonymous admitted in their video to cartels, they
                       cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a
                       targeted information operations campaign by
                       technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
                       should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream
                       media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
                       to their operations, that they have continued to
                       target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message
                       signed by Los Zetas was placed with a dead female
                       body  more relevantly, on the body of a blogger. The
                       message threatened any users who denounce cartels on
                       blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's
                       not really addressing the subheading

                       As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                       internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample
                       reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing
                       information they threaten to release. By releasing
                       identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
                       cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
                       individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
                       sensitive information is limited by what is available
                       via the Internet. Government computers connected to
                       the Internet should always be considered a possibility
                       of an attack. However, as with the compartmentalized
                       nature of the US governments computer networks,
                       information available to Mexico's intelligence
                       collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you
                       trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                        

                       Cartel's Defense

                                   A counter response to the video? by the
                       cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                       claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los
                       Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
                       hackers so... how has there not been a counter
                       response? also this undermines your statements above
                       about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
                       underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members.
                       How did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to
                       that could very well give you some indication to the
                       technical ability of the cartels . As Anonymous exists
                       in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
                       cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely
                       are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
                       whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in
                       cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
                       indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
                       cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in
                       any region of the world. Personal information
                       including locations is only available if a hacker
                       chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack
                       is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
                       work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of
                       dealing with their online enemy, if they can
                       physically reach out to them. Or start employing
                       hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger
                       things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                                   Cartels have been known to coerce the
                       services of Mexican citizens with a technical
                       background. Recruiting the help of computer science
                       majors through personal threats has been reported in
                       the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since
                       cartels operate in the world of urban violence and
                       drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance
                       of technical experts to help combat any threat by
                       computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside
                       of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is unlikely
                       cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
                       operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement
                       agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
                       experience and resources than cartels, struggle to
                       find hackers through investigations. A) How do you
                       know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
                       kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all
                       hackers are equally difficult to track down

                                   In order to compete with an online foe,
                       cartels will likely continue counter tactics they are
                       most familiar with, brute force. Cartels are still
                       capable of their HUMINT operations within Mexico
                       \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?. 
                       Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
                       communities will likely be targeted and interrogated
                       by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
                       of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
                       online media into submission i'm not really seeing the
                       online media-international hacking group connection
                       here.  The cruel manners in which cartels inflict
                       harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
                       encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
                       cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous
                       will remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek
                       out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
                       Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go
                       on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
                       inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

             --

             Sean Noonan

             Tactical Analyst

             Office: +1 512-279-9479

             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

             www.stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-25 02:33:59",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1017647_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","tristan.reed@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1017743,"[Eurasia] GREECE - Referendum will not be on euro, ministers say
","   This seems like pretty empty rhetoric as I don't think anyone was ever
   saying that the referendum would be on whether to stay in the eurozone or
   not - but rather that the consequences of the public rejecting the terms
   of the bailout would be expulsion from the euro.

   Referendum will not be on euro, ministers say
       2 Nov 2011
   http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/49924

   Government officials have given assurances that the question that will
   appear on ballot papers in the planned referendum will be on the loan
   contract and the October 27 decision of the eurozone summit of the leaders
   and not on Greece's membership of the eurozone.
    
   \"Nobody doubts the European prospect of the country,\" deputy government
   spokesman Angelos Tolkas told the main evening news bulletin on private
   Mega TV. \"This government has taken all the measures for Greece to remain
   strong in the euro.\"
    
   The comments came as Prime Minister George Papandreou was meeting with G20
   leaders on November 2.
    
   Earlier French and German officials said that a Greek referendum on the
   latest EU bailout deal must happen as soon as possible - and preferably
   before mid-December - to keep to a minimum the period of economic and
   political uncertainty.
    
   Germany's finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, urged Greece to stick to
   the aid plan agreed with the eurozone and IMF on October 26 and to avoid
   the dangerous instability posed by the prospect of a referendum.
    
   \"It would be helpful if clarity is achieved as soon as possible on which
   path Greece wants to take,\" Schaeuble told the Hamburger Abendblatt
   newspaper
    
   Meanwhile, French European Affairs Minister Jean Leonetti said that any
   referendum should be held \"as soon as possible\". Asked if it would better
   for the poll to be completed by mid-December, he said: \"It would be
   important that things are decided that way.\"
    
   German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy have
   summoned Papandreou to crisis talks in Cannes, France, at a summit of G20
   world economies. Preliminary indications are that Merkel, Sarkozy and
   other G20 leaders will meet at 6.30pm local time, and that a smaller
   meeting will follow with Papandreou at 9pm. Ta Nea daily is also reporting
   that Papandreou will hold a separate meeting with US President Barack
   Obama.
    
   In a rare televised address on the steps of the Elysee palace in Paris on
   November 1, Sarkozy did not hide his frustration with Papandreoua**s
   decision to call a referendum, while Merkela**s reaction was more
   measured.
    
   \"This announcement took the whole of Europe by surprise,\" Sarkozy said.
   \"The plan ... is the only way to solve Greece's debt problem.\"
    
   Advance warning
    
   German European Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said in a newspaper
   interview on November 2 that Papandreou's actions had \"made the situation
   considerably worse for countries which don't have the highest credit
   rating, and the danger of further setbacks is rising\".
    
   He told the daily Die Welt that the Greek leader should have given
   European leaders advance warning of his referendum plans at their twin
   summits last week. The mass-circulation Bild daily said \"even the
   chancellor was taken by surprise\".
    
   \"My worry is that we will have an unstable situation until the referendum.
   The Greeks have many good grounds to vote for the package. The steps we
   decided on are a good opportunity for their country. But there's a lot of
   frustration and resignation in Greece. If the Greeks actually vote no, the
   consequences are unforeseeable,\" said Oettinger, the EU energy
   commissioner.
    
   However, government spokesman Elias Mossialos denied on November 2 that EU
   leaders were unaware of Papandreoua**s plans to call a referendum.
    
   \"Prime Minister George Papandreou had informed our European partners of
   his intentions, but he had not informed them on the exact date of their
   announcement,a** he told private radio station Vima. a**It lies with the
   Greek prime minister when and in what way a political initiative is
   announced. It's a part of our national sovereignty and our political
   initiatives.
    
   Backing
    
   Papandreou won the backing of his cabinet in the early hours of November 2
   to hold a referendum on latest Brussels bailout deal.
    
   The cabinet unanimously backed a proposal after a marathon seven-hour
   meeting that lasted until 3am on Wednesday morning, according to an
   official announcement issued after the meeting.
    
   Ministers also expressed \"full support\" for the vote of confidence in the
   government called by Papandreou, debate on which begins Wednesday
   afternoon and ends with a roll-call vote at midnight Friday.
    
   Some of his party lawmakers called for him to quit, accusing him of
   endangering Greek euro membership with his shock decision to call a
   popular vote, a move that pummelled the euro and global stocks. But the
   cabinet support at least gives him a stay of execution before a confidence
   vote in parliament on November 4.
    
   \"The referendum will be a clear mandate and a clear message in and outside
   Greece on our European course and participation in the euro,\" Papandreou
   told a cabinet meeting that lasted seven hours, a statement from his
   office said. \"No one will be able to doubt Greece's course within the
   euro.\"
    
   Speaking after the cabinet meeting, government spokesman Mossialos said
   that the technical procedures, the exact date of the referendum and the
   wording of the question to be put to the citizens will be worked out by a
   governmental committee and submitted to the cabinet \"in a relatively short
   time\" so that the referendum may be held \"by the end of the year, if
   possible\".
    
   Speaking to public broadcaster Net, Interior Minister Haris Kastanidis
   said that the referendum date could be moved forward from January if all
   the details of the loan agreement has been completed.
    
   \"There is a possibility that the referendum will take place earlier, in
   December,\" he said.
    
   Kastanidis also lashed out at the banking sector, as well as the
   opposition parties, for their stance. He charged that very few banks \"have
   put their hand in their pocket to confront the crisis\" and that they are
   \"confronting the crisis with state support\".
    
   Commenting on Friday's confidence vote, the interior minister also
   revealed that the government will carry on even if it hangs on by the skin
   of its teeth, with a single vote from an independent MP.
    
   Speaking to his parliamentary group at noon on November 2, main opposition
   New Democracy (ND) leader Antonis Samaras warned that the Pasok government
   was \"desperate and dangerous\" and pledged that an ND government would do
   everything necessary to attain Greece's fiscal targets.
    
   Samaras said this could only be done with a different policy that would
   give hope and prospects to the country. (Athens News, Reuters, AMNA)

   --
   Kristen A. Cooper
   Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: (512) 744-4093 M: (512) 619-9414
","2011-11-02 23:48:48",1,"2012-02-29 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1017743_-eurasia-greece-referendum-will-not-be-on-euro-ministers-say.html","kristen.cooper@stratfor.com","mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com","eurasia@stratfor.com",""
1018845,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   Good point. 
   In terrorist terms they are more like grassroots people than AQ core. 
   From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:11:05 -0500
   To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
   Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They are
   a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
   online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do this
   in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people joining
   Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or something
   like that. 

   Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

   On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
     these in the US?
      What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
     I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
     whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
     because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
     revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
     understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
     expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
     coercion.

     Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
     cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of el
     chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication as a
     tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable intelligence,
     the government will use it against the cartels. That's a physical
     threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify that
     Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact to the
     cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival cartels or
     the GoM. They may release information on a given politician being linked
     to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the politician will feel
     an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a link, doesn't make it
     true). It would be up to others to take action.  I think the way you
     have it worded in the above sentence is good.  Follow with a sentence
     explaining the rest of it, because readers will have the same question
     Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat to cartels would come in
     what information anonymous could expose that is useful to their enemies'

     Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
     activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to conduct
     significant logistics and business online. We don't know how much, but
     we do know they will have some points of operational vulnerability I
     have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't have specific
     examples which could be used in assessing their vulnerability online.

     by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
     arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
     should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
     politicians as colluding.
     On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

       Karen Hooper
       Latin America Analyst
       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
       c: 512.750.7234
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
       Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
       possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
       Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using the
       banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
       cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
       find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
       kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
       Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting
       flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the Operation
       Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is good and
       will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a quick
       explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding something in
       the explaining the flyers will work]

       Link: themeData
       Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
       denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate websites,
       lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
       denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a
       masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With
       the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
       the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities
       of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude with
       criminal cartels do they specify whether or not these are all in
       Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
       group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
       face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
       was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
       their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
       potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
       presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational criminal
       organization, it's not really unique.  Many such organizations do
       their crimes online, and have been hacked in response--like the
       nigerian princess scams. I think you should just say it's a unique
       threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out at online bloggers,
       but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
       from hackers before. 

       What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
            o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat
       to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to
       the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using
       publication as a tool to force government action. If you reveal
       actionable intelligence, the government will use it against the
       cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
            o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
       media
            o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
       at cartels

       While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
       threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

               -The threat is in the information they can expose that may be
   of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or other
   cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but i could
   imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the public).

            o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
       identifiable information on cartel members 
            o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
       cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
       section/paragraph]
            o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
       identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
       the realm of possibilities for
                   Anonymous
                   o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
       illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are
       known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't
       know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
       operational vulnerability

      -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
   (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
   cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
   replaceable. 
               -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents have
   access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any sort of
   existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

       Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
       world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that some
       of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to the
       violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is there
       are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems very
       possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have joined
       up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of cartel
       activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other countries may
       act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but this may
       blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even know the
       impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the part below and above is
       written rather normatively.  We need to take that out.  just state the
       facts]
            o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
       cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
       forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
       victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
       identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
       cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
       working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor) before, however
       there has yet to be any consequences from this. by \"no consequences\"
       what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and
       that happens all the time.
            o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
       willing to go protect their operations.
               o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
               o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
       community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
       them.
               o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
       discovering hackers within Mexico.
       need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply publishing
       tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the same camp as
       the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that their damage
       will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can do--limited.  But
       maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are no longer
       challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

        

       On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

         Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
         are several issues to address and fix here.

         These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
         discussion:

              o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
         we can't gloss over that fact
              o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
         between stealing bank records from government computers and
         overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
              o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
         information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
         kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
         talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
         politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
         going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
         killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
         operational details, because they acted as informants, because they
         exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied the
         cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
         to the cartels themselves?
              o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
         realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
         damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
         technical ability by a very small number of its members to
         infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information. Now
         what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that is
         connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
         information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
         of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
         consequences of dissemination.
              o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
         back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done
         by people who may not understand the difference between an anon
         hacker and a blogger.

         On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

           wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

           -------- Original Message --------

            Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
               Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
               From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
           Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                 To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

           you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
           lot more work

           You need to lay out:

           a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
           is unclear
           b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
           therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
           c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
           d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
           who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

           I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
           insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
           of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
           cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason
           to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
           protected fashion.

           Karen Hooper
           Latin America Analyst
           o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
           c: 512.750.7234
           STRATFOR
           www.stratfor.com
           On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

           On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Link: themeData

           Trigger

           Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
           depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
           exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
           makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
           releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
           politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
           The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
           member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
           between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
           unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
           operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
           Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
           believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
           not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience with
           hackers.

            

           In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as
           a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
           releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
           front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit
           back. Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and
           why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of
           possessing revealing information on cartel members and operations
           are true, cartels will likely respond with violence against
           individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean
           Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of
           GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take
           action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand
           what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
           effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against Anonymous
           remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue their threats
           against any individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
           or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here. against the
           cartels.

            

           The Battle Space

           Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
           realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
           the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
           boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
           cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
           tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses -
           although most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
           base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any
           information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by
           hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the
           midst of Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember
           that most of what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if
           you are Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
           revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run operations
           on the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are
           also far less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

           Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
           consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
           themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
           internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
           and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
           goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large
           web of people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort
           of serious IT capability. 

           The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
           from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

           The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
           Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
           maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
           commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
           issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
           is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
           capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
           and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
           experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
           always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence. While
           battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement
           Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of
           drugs and money, cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering
           journalists and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
           operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
           discussion. You need to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of
           the cartels. Don't just assume they have no cyber presence.

            

           Anonymous' Weapons

           Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
           criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
           combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
           sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
           statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you
           mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their
           video to cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance
           of a targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
           individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
           Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
           such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
           target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by
           Los Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
           the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
           denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here,
           and it's not really addressing the subheading

           As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
           disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
           Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
           release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
           Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
           individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
           information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
           Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
           considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
           compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer networks,
           information available to Mexico's intelligence collection may not
           be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
           clear at all

            

           Cartel's Defense

                       A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
           yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
           member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
           threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
           response? also this undermines your statements above about how
           Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
           vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
           Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you some
           indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As Anonymous
           exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the cartels
           will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed for them
           Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies dedicated to
           fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good
           intel indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
           cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any region
           of the world. Personal information including locations is only
           available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject of
           the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
           work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
           online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
           employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger
           things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                       Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
           Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help
           of computer science majors through personal threats has been
           reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since
           cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
           trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
           experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
           identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
           unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers operating
           outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such as the FBi,
           with far more technical experience and resources than cartels,
           struggle to find hackers through investigations. A) How do you
           know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???)
           B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult
           to track down

                       In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
           likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
           force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
           Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?. 
           Individuals with alleged connections to hacker communities will
           likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco
           banners and public display of violence will likely continue to be
           used to scare online media into submission i'm not really seeing
           the online media-international hacking group connection here.  The
           cruel manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
           hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether
           the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous
           will remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
           capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the
           collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience
           that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 20:33:26",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1018845_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1022457,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored cyber
   warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing that, since you
   can conduct a cyber attack without associating with a hacker group and
   still deny / cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual attacking
   US computer assets from China, may be working by himself or on behalf of
   the Chinese government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
   government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate there is
   little capability to distinguish.

   It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network operations do
   not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from SIGINT would not
   directly help you track an individual responsible for hacking State run
   servers. In the past, I have turned to SIGINT organizations for
   collections on computer related material, but this was due to the US being
   behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
   However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of years.

   Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an extreme
   scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a Starbucks with
   free public wifi, and never attribute the online activity to something
   revealing (accessing personal email accounts, tweeting, entering personal
   information to the laptop, etc..), and begin hacking government email
   accounts then never use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
   description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible security
   cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

   Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to these
   enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to specific
   computer-related activities because of the difficulty in identifying
   individuals.

   I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be blown, would be
   the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common participant in
   \"Anonymous\" activities, was working for a State? Anonymous has denounced
   state governments before, if that State agent organizes an attack amongst
   his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

   On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a bit)

     1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything actually
     harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but i'm very
     doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real case where they
     could do some minor damage--to individual people, not not to an
     organization or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
     threat. 

     2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually pretty
     good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover, but that would be
     pretty easy to bungle, and could probably still be attributed if
     important enough to those agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually
     brings this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies
     they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an publicized
     attacks in the past, even before they were carried out.  The attack on
     the Playstation Network was more sophisticated than anonymous' usual
     work (though potentially coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that
     distracted Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
     damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data security, but
     this is no different than the OC groups stealing your credit card
     information.  LE will go after them, have some success, but the threat
     is not that large. 
     On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

       Link: themeData

       I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
       broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
       almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
       Reviewing their list of attacks
       (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of the
       cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the internet
       . The interesting thing when it comes to their interactions with the
       cartels is the dubious role they play: at the same time they can be
       fighting crime by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can
       also put lives in risk.

       However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by Anonymous.
       The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can conduct a cyber
       attack under \"Anonymous\" is worrisome.
       (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

       If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government websites,
       or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know more about these
       guys. Who they are? What are they interested in? How they operate? Who
       they have targeted so far? How can I defend myself from them? In what
       countries are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
       them to achieve any particular goal?

       On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can
         build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to
         innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing
         on journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the
         situation.  This has long term implications in not just Mexico. 
         They don't consider the consequences of their actions and they act
         without understanding the environment.  It was the same when they
         released information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
         Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
           possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
           Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by Anonymous,
           threatens revealing personal information on cartels as well as
           states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
           outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped.
           According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous
           Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers in
           Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although
           that is speculation.

           Link: themeData
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
           denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
           individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
           most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
           the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
           identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists
           who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los
           Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
           consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
           was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
           their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
           potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and
           hackers, presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
           lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting
           on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

           What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
           threat to Mexican cartels.
                o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
           media
                o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash
           out at cartels

           While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
           threat
                o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
           identifiable information on cartel members
                o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire
           on cartels
                o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
           communications, identifiable information on cartels members have
           to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                       Anonymous
                       o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
           illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

           Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
           ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result,
           their understanding of cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous
           may act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but
           this may blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even
           know the impact of any online assault of cartels.
                o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
           will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
           individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
           drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
           halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not
           have a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
           Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
           Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
           consequences from this.
                o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
           are willing to go protect their operations.
                   o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                   o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
           community before, coercing computer science majors into working
           for them.
                   o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
           discovering hackers within Mexico.

            

           On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

             Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
             there are several issues to address and fix here.

             These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
             discussion:

                  o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine
             but we can't gloss over that fact
                  o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
             between stealing bank records from government computers and
             overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                  o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
             information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
             kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
             talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
             politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
             going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
             killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
             operational details, because they acted as informants, because
             they exposed links with officials or because they somehow
             sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
             information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                  o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
             realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a
             measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity
             except for the technical ability by a very small number of its
             members to infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
             information. Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on
             a network that is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
             Where else could information be found? Government databases?
             Once we know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
             know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                  o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
             trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
             killings done by people who may not understand the difference
             between an anon hacker and a blogger.

             On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

               wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                   Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                   From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
               Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                     To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

               you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need
               a lot more work

               You need to lay out:

               a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
               section is unclear
               b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
               therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
               c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
               anything
               d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
               anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

               I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
               insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
               levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
               the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
               is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
               business online, in a protected fashion.

               Karen Hooper
               Latin America Analyst
               o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
               c: 512.750.7234
               STRATFOR
               www.stratfor.com
               On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

               On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Link: themeData

               Trigger

               Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
               lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
               denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
               released depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
               screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels.
               Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican? American?
               taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude
               with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
               release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
               The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels
               and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
               cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los
               Zetas leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
               little experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
               experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
               that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                

               In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
               mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
               their demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be
               mentioned right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
               threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so we
               understand who this guy is and why/how he was abducted. are
               not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
               information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
               will likely respond with violence against individuals revealed
               as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?.
               It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who
               collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving
               the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
               means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
               effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
               Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
               their threats against any individual using online media WC....
               you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers
               here. against the cartels.

                

               The Battle Space

               Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
               realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
               of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
               geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
               exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
               are physical people tho live in the real world. They have
               names and addresses - although most of them are likely outside
               of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their technical
               capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
               Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
               the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's
               population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
               what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
               Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
               revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run
               operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
               e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than
               the jihadists.)

               Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
               base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
               believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
               through the internet. This gives an opening for people
               disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
               dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience =
               troll. Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
               themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious IT
               capability. 

               The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
               been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

               The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US
               and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking
               to maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
               commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
               and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from
               insight. There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't
               have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
               amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels
               like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of
               threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel
               on cartel violence. While battling each other, cartels still
               face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
               avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
               have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
               bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok...
               but that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need
               to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't
               just assume they have no cyber presence.

                

               Anonymous' Weapons

               Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
               criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability
               to combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
               disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
               anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites
               in Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
               admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
               guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
               campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
               overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main
               stream media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
               to their operations, that they have continued to target
               journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
               Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
               the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
               denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
               here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

               As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
               risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to
               suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing information they
               threaten to release. By releasing identities of individuals
               cooperating with Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life
               of those individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
               sensitive information is limited by what is available via the
               Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
               should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
               However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
               governments computer networks, information available to
               Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire. 
               what are you trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                

               Cartel's Defense

                           A counter response to the video? by the cartels
               has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a
               kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun
               addressing the threat posed by hackers so... how has there not
               been a counter response? also this undermines your statements
               above about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
               underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How did
               they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very
               well give you some indication to the technical ability of the
               cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
               wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
               rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
               whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You
               can assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they are
               working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening
               cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
               information including locations is only available if a hacker
               chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy
               enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
               Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
               online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or
               start employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
               Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                           Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
               Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
               help of computer science majors through personal threats has
               been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported
               where?.  Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
               and drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of
               technical experts to help combat any threat by computer
               hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been
               demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of
               identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
               enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
               experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find
               hackers through investigations. A) How do you know they are
               not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm
               goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
               track down

                           In order to compete with an online foe, cartels
               will likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar
               with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
               operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they
               wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
               communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
               members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
               likely continue to be used to scare online media into
               submission i'm not really seeing the online
               media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
               manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
               hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life.
               Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of
               Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able to
               seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
               Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go on and
               shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 20:38:17",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1022457_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","tristan.reed@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1024771,"Re: For Comment:  Wikileaks and the State Department Documents
","   When I was doing research in grad school as part of a year long study of
   the history of KSA, I went through volumes of declassified memos sent by
   the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh. One such memo, from 1947, was in response to a
   query from DoS about an incident of food poisoning at a royal party where
   a prince had died. The memo explained that the partying folks ran out of
   booze and began to brew an in house cocktail, which was the cause of the
   poisoning. That memo would have caused an uproar back then in the nascent
   KSA and King Abdul-aziz would have had some major shit to deal with.
   Luckily for the Saudis, it was a world in which there was much more
   tighter control on official communications and the kingdom existed in the
   dark ages. Today where even terrorists have access to advanced means of
   communication, any such revelations could have major consequences.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"scott stewart\" <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>
   Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2010 06:28:40 -0600 (CST)
   To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>; 'Analysts'<analysts@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Cc: 'George Friedman'<gfriedman@stratfor.com>
   Subject: RE: For Comment: Wikileaks and the State Department Documents

   Copy. Nate is going to walk this through edit for me this morning so we
   can get it out.

    

    

    

   From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@att.blackberry.net]
   Sent: Sunday, November 28, 2010 7:27 AM
   To: scott stewart; Analysts
   Cc: 'George Friedman'
   Subject: Re: For Comment: Wikileaks and the State Department Documents

    

   Exactly right. We don't know what's there. But we know this much.
   Ambassadors met foreign ministers and gave them specifics of what to
   expect. So what they expect caused them to take significant steps.

   Bottom line. We don't know what's coming. Let's just be ready.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"scott stewart\" <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>

   Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2010 06:23:22 -0600 (CST)

   To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>; 'Analysts'<analysts@stratfor.com>

   Cc: 'George Friedman'<gfriedman@stratfor.com>

   Subject: RE: For Comment: Wikileaks and the State Department Documents

    

   Thought of this way, this is wildly unpredictable. We just don't know
   what's there but washington is prepping everyone for the worst because dc
   is scared. This could certainly end the careers of us diplomats in several
   countries. We just don't know.

    

    

   --But DC also went hog wild with damage control efforts for the last two
   releases (they had that huge interagency task force), and those releases
   were not nearly as damaging as we were initially led to believe.  Remember
   that the media outlets who have been given early access to these documents
   really want to hype this for the ad revenue potential. They will beat this
   horse for all it is worth.

    

   Because of that, I want to keep this piece heavily caveated until we see
   the goods.

    

    

    

    

   From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@att.blackberry.net]
   Sent: Sunday, November 28, 2010 5:07 AM
   To: scott stewart; Analysts
   Cc: 'George Friedman'
   Subject: Re: For Comment: Wikileaks and the State Department Documents

    

   I think it may go deeper than that. It may reveal that some negotiations
   were not carried out by the us in good faith, that the us was supporting
   anti government factions in some countries, and so on. The view in europe
   is that the leaks could create a public uproar that will force short term
   policy changes. Apart from the personal impact there is a domestic
   political issue in these countries.

   One of the oddities of our classification system is the focus on sources.
   Opinions are not seen as nearly as sensitive as hard intelligence. But in
   this case the opinions of american diplomats, however its significance
   will be viewed by washington officials will be seen in a very different
   way by local media, public and politicians. It will be used against the
   united states.

   Imagine that memos from the embassy in poland ridicules the polish efforts
   in afghanistan. Might have a low clearance level in dc, but could threaten
   a government that has made its close relations with the us its platform. A
   memo treating polish soldiers as incompetent would not have a high
   secutity clearance if it was simply written by a second secretary, but
   could explode us-polish relations or bring down the government. People
   will believe this the american view. Don't use this as an example.

   So it isn't simply the family getting to read what uncle charley thinks of
   them. It is everyone the family knows at their work, their church and
   bowling league learning that a member of his family thinks uncle charley
   is bipolar, and likes young boys. Oh, and that he plans to get uncle
   charley into a deal where we take his money because he is too dumb to
   protect himself.

   Thought of this way, this is wildly unpredictable. We just don't know
   what's there but washington is prepping everyone for the worst because dc
   is scared. This could certainly end the careers of us diplomats in several
   countries. We just don't know.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"scott stewart\" <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>

   Date: Sat, 27 Nov 2010 20:53:51 -0600 (CST)

   To: 'Analyst List'<analysts@stratfor.com>

   Cc: 'George Friedman'<gfriedman@stratfor.com>

   Subject: RE: For Comment: Wikileaks and the State Department Documents

    

   To explain the blow-back potential of this release to my wife, I told her
   that it is like us going to a family reunion and then having her tell all
   my family members all the observations and comments I've made about them
   over the years to her, thinking all my comments and observations would be
   held in confidence.

    

   Everybody in the world might know that Uncle Herb is crazy or Aunt Betty
   is a lush (heck, they might even recognize the problems themselves), but
   if they learn you`ve said such things about them, they are likely to
   become quite offended, and maybe even cut you out of any inheritance.

    

   This is the kind of thing that can hurt people's pride. Same thing with
   these notes from meetings with foreign leaders.

    

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of scott stewart
   Sent: Saturday, November 27, 2010 9:33 PM
   To: 'Analyst List'
   Cc: 'George Friedman'
   Subject: For Comment: Wikileaks and the State Department Documents

    

    

   Wikileaks and the State Department Documents

    

   The latest batch of classified U.S. government documents that is being
   released by Wikileaks would appear to be very different from the others.
   Like the [link
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20101027_wikileaks_and_culture_classification]
   last two large groups of documents, this one also was allegedly downloaded
   by a U.S. Army Soldier, PFC Bradley Manning, from the U.S. government's
   Secret Internet Protocol Router Network (SIPRNet). SIPRNet is a network
   used to distribute classified but not particularly sensitive information
   classified at the secret level and below. However, while the last two
   installments of documents involved battlefield reports from U.S. forces in
   Iraq and Afghanistan, this latest group allegedly involves some 260,000
   messages authored by the U.S Department of State, many of which appear to
   have been sent by U.S. Embassies and Consulates abroad.

    

   State Department messages are called cables in State Department parlance,
   a reference that hearkens back to the days when embassies really did send
   cables rather than satellite transmissions or email messages via SIPRNet.
   The cables were intentionally placed on SIPRNet, under an information
   sharing initiative known as \"net-centric diplomacy\" that was enacted in
   the shadow of the criticism levied against the U.S. government for not
   sharing intelligence information that perhaps could have prevented the
   9/11 attacks. Net-Centric diplomacy ensured that even though Manning was a
   low-level U.S. Army soldier, he had access to hundreds of thousands of
   State Department cables by virtue of his access to SIPRNet.

    

   It is important to understand that SIPRNet only contains information
   classified at the Secret level and below. Because of this, it will not
   contain highly classified information pertaining to U.S. Government
   intelligence operations, methods or sources. This information also will
   not contain the most sensitive Diplomatic information passed between the
   State Department Headquarters in Foggy Bottom and it constellation of
   diplomatic posts overseas.  The fact that much of the diplomatic message
   traffic being released was unclassified and the most heavily classified
   was at the Secret level does not mean that the release will not cause real
   pain or embarrassment for the U.S. Government. In fact it is quite
   possible that these documents will do far more to damage U.S. foreign
   relations that the last two batches of documents released by Wikileaks.

    

   Some of the documents reportedly contain the minutes held with foreign
   leaders. Such reports may contain gossip, opinion and even evaluations of
   the intellect and mental state of foreign leaders by U.S. diplomats. While
   such details are useful to keep Foggy Bottom informed about the progress
   of such meetings and negotiations, revealing them to the public could
   prove quite embarrassing, as could reports of the U.S. government meeting
   with foreign opposition or militant groups. 

    

   We have received reports that U.S. ambassadors and their diplomatic staff
   have been meeting with representatives of foreign governments over the
   past several days to prepare them for the release of these documents. 
   Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has also reportedly been busy by phone.
   The U.S. government could be conducting this preparation out of an
   abundance of caution, and this release of documents could prove to be as
   much of a bust as the last two. It is, however, possible that this batch
   of documents will prove to be more incendiary and will provoke a much more
   dramatic international reaction. Like the rest of the world, we are
   awaiting the release of the documents so that we can attempt to make that
   assessment. 

    

    

    

   Scott Stewart

   STRATFOR

   Office: 814 967 4046

   Cell: 814 573 8297

   scott.stewart@stratfor.com

   www.stratfor.com
","2010-11-28 13:57:20",1,"2012-03-01 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1024771_re-for-comment-wikileaks-and-the-state-department-documents-.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1025066,"RE: Wikileaks
","This is also still stuff from PFC Bradley Manning. There were allegations
early on that he had downloaded something like 260,000 state department
cables. 

This is also probably secret stuff at the most and will not jeopardize any
intelligence sources and methods. But there could be political backlash. 


-----Original Message-----
From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
On Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
Sent: Thursday, November 25, 2010 2:30 PM
To: Analyst List
Cc: friedman@att.blackberry.net; Analyst List
Subject: Re: Wikileaks

Yes, will be ready to go through it with Emre. This is the last thing  
they need after getting bmd. Depending on how bad this gets it could  
create problems for akp in election yr.




Sent from my iPhone

On Nov 25, 2010, at 12:23 PM, Emre Dogru <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>  
wrote:

> I will cover mesa countries in coordination with the rest of mesa  
> team.
>
> Sent from my iPhone
>
> On Nov 25, 2010, at 20:00, \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net 
> > wrote:
>
>> We need to be ready to go through this stuff and identify things.  
>> Unlike the military stuff this seems important.
>> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2010-11-26 00:27:43",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1025066_re-wikileaks-.html","scott.stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,friedman@att.blackberry.net",""
1025329,"INSIGHT - AUSTRALIA/CHINA - Resources Tax - CN65
","   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator.  Source is 
   well-connected politically, militarily and economically.  He has become a
   private businessman helping foreign companies with M&As
   PUBLICATION: Yes but with no attribution
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   Xstrata has announced that it has cancelled all exploration in
   Queensland's NW resources province.  This is a huge area of Queensland
   centred around Mt Isa.  
   By way of explanation, Xstrata bought MIM (Mt Isa Mines) about a decade
   ago.  MIM opened up the NW minerals province in the 1920s, and the Mt Isa
   mine is still one of the world's largest producers of copper, lead, silver
   and zinc.  The province has also spawned other mines such as Mary Kathleen
   (Australia's first uranium mine), Ernest Henry (copper gold mine), George
   Fisher (lead, zinc, silver), Lady Annie (copper) and Century (the world's
   second largest zinc mine).
   This is a major statement of no confidence, and also a hit to overall
   revenue. The point to note is that if the companies do not explore on
   their exploration tenements, they forfeit them.  This leaves the door open
   for the Chinese to come in and snap them up, as I predicted.

   In another note on the topic in response to whether or not all of the
   backlash against Rudd for the resources task is really bluster and whether
   or not the mining companies can actually do anything about it more than
   just gripe:

   On Rudd and the RSPT, it is very complex.  Companies like Fortescue and
   Xstrata are serious about cancelling projects and exploration.  There is a
   difference, too, between the coal miners and the metalliferous miners.
    Coal exploration has a much lower risk profile in Australia because of
   the uniformity of the coal measure in Eastern Australia.  That is not the
   case with iron ore and other metals which are the result of volcanic,
   rather than sedimentary processes.  Coal miners will continue to invest
   but metalliferous miners will not. This is not a bluff.  These guys are
   fair dinkum.
   As to the application of the tax, Rudd is not saying that the proceeds of
   the RSPT will go to pensions.  In fact the proceeds go to consolidated
   revenue and are therefore unhypothecated.
   The Rudd line is that part of the money raised from the RSPT will go to
   fund reductions in company tax, which will then be taken from the
   companies in an increased in the company contribution to superannuation.
    Because it funds superannuation, there is not benefit to current
   pensioners.
   Bu the problem is that the RSPT has wiped billions of dollars from the
   value of the stock market, and therefore from the value of existing
   pension funds.  The increase in the company contribution rate to super
   will not, in the short to medium term, offset the losses from the value of
   share portfolios.
   Overall public sentiment is probably against the tax 55% to 45%.  If I can
   find the latest Morgan Poll figures, I shall send them to you.
   Rudd's popularity has slumped.  There has been a bounce for the Coalition.
    Some polls put the Coalition in front of a 2PP (two party preferred)
   basis, others have Labor ahead by 0.5% on a 2PP basis.  What I do know is
   that the Coalition needs more than 3% lead on a 2PP basis at the moment to
   win government, because the Australian electorate always swings to the
   government in the second half of an election campaign.
","2010-05-27 16:59:30",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1025329_insight-australia-china-resources-tax-cn65-.html","colibasanu@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1025951,"[alpha] ARGENTINA-CHINA RELATIONS - MEETING/SEMINAR AT
	ARGENTINE/THINK TANK
","   This evening I attended a meeting at the Argentine Council on Foreign
   Relations (CARI). The meeting was about Argentina-China relations. CARI is
   an Argentine think tank that was created by Argentine diplomats, scholars,
   private businesses to debate and study ArgentinaA's international
   relations.

   Today, it was CARIA's China group studies headed by a prominent Argentine
   ambassador, especially during Nestor KirchenerA's presidency that promoted
   a debate about Argentina-China relations.  I was really surprised with
   this meeting, because I thought the debate about how to deal with China
   was going to be similar to some IA've witnessed in Brazil where some
   diplomats, scholars, think tanks etca*| have started to re-think BrazilA's
   relations with China as the import of Chinese products have started to
   increase considerably.  This is not what I saw this evening at CARI. Most
   of the people at this meeting today are current Argentine diplomats and
   they were pretty much saying about how China is card that they can play
   against the US and how Argentina needs to start strengthening relations
   with China. They said that every time a high rank Chinese military officer
   comes to Argentina, the US embassy goes ballistic and the Argentine govt,
   of course, loves it. They said that Argentina needs to cooperate with
   China in the areas of biotechnology, bio-fuels, telecommunications, and
   wind power. They also said that China in terms of defense cooperation has
   categorized South America into 3 groups. One group is the one that they
   have signed most defense cooperation agreements with, which are: Brazil,
   Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay. A 2nd group is the one that they sell
   weapons: Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia. 3rd one is the one that they have
   more navy exchanges, which are the ones on the Pacific Coast: Peru, Chile,
   Ecuador, and Colombia. One of CARIA's member who is an Argentine diplomat
   said that one of the problems with China is that a lot of Latin American
   military officers are being trained in China, but Chinese military
   officers do not come to Latin America to spend some time and have some
   exchange with Latin American military officers. My feeling is that it
   seems that Argentina perceives China in a more positive way than Brazil. I
   heard several times during the meeting how China was important for
   Argentina to diversify its trade partner and also use it as a card against
   the US. 

   Paulo Gregoire
   Latin America Monitor
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-02 01:01:04",1,"2012-02-29 22:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1025951_-alpha-argentina-china-relations-meeting-seminar-at.html","paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1026631,"[Eurasia] Fwd: GREECE - Greece reshuffles military chief amid crisis
","                  Greece reshuffles military chief amid crisis

   http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/greece-reshuffles-military-chief-amid-crisis-20111102-1muen.html

   November 2, 2011 - 7:42AM

   Greece on Tuesday reshuffled its military chiefs amid a political crisis
   that could see a government downfall following a controversial decision to
   put an EU debt rescue deal to a referendum.

   A state security council under Prime Minister George Papandreou replaced
   the heads of the general staff, the army, navy and airforce, and
   discharged a dozen army and navy officers, the defence ministry said in a
   statement.

   A defence ministry source told AFP that the reshuffle was previously
   scheduled and not linked to political developments.

   But opposition parties attacked the government over the move.

   \"You're finished, hands off the armed forces,\" said conservative New
   Democracy shadow defence minister Margaritis Tzimas.

   \"There is no government in the country, one by one its lawmakers are
   jumping ship,\" Tzimas said, calling the reshuffle \"undemocratic\".

   The other parties also questioned the government's motives.

   \"This heightens the climate of uncertainty and concern among public
   opinion,\" said the Democratic Left party.

   Papandreou's shock announcement for a referendum early next year and a
   confidence vote on Friday sparked calls for early elections and a
   defection, leaving the government with just 152 deputies in the 300-seat
   parliament.

   The hard-fought deal agreed last Thursday after marathon talks in Brussels
   included an agreement to write off 100 billion euros ($A132.06 billion)
   ($137 billion) of debt owed by Greece.

   With leaders of the world's 20 biggest economies getting ready for a
   summit in Cannes focused on the economic crisis, Papandreou's unexpected
   move triggered fears that the EU's rescue efforts could rapidly unravel.

   AFP

   Read more:
   http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/greece-reshuffles-military-chief-amid-crisis-20111102-1muen.html#ixzz1cUipNwT0
   Sincerely,

   Marko Primorac
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   221 W 6th Street, Suite 400
   Austin, TX 78701
   T: +1 512.744.4300 ext. 4115 A| M: +1 717.557.8480 A| F: +1 512.744.4334
   www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-01 23:15:10",1,"2012-03-07 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1026631_-eurasia-fwd-greece-greece-reshuffles-military-chief-amid.html","marko.primorac@stratfor.com","mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com","eurasia@stratfor.com",""
1026833,"Re: G3/B3* - GREECE - Papa speech: rejects snap elections,
	doesn't resign	and still defends referendum
","   But the original point is that he maintains the referendum was a good
   idea... for him. No contest on it being irrelevant at this point.

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Nov 4, 2011, at 19:01, Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   wrote:

     I don't think the referendum idea came from extraneous forces but was a
     misguided attempt to discharge responsibility. As you said, the
     pressures on P are EU and domestic, the referendum came from neither.
     Therefore, id there is one thing he knows he will do it's NOT having a
     referendum.

     Sent from my iPhone
     On Nov 4, 2011, at 18:56, \"George Friedman\"
     <friedman@att.blackberry.net> wrote:

       He doesn't know what he will do. He is riding the tiger caught between
       the eu leadership and the public. Pay no attention to what he wants
       and pay attention to the forces on him. We've seen him whirling like a
       dervish for days.

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
       Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Fri, 4 Nov 2011 18:43:56 -0500 (CDT)
       To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
       ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
       Subject: Re: G3/B3* - GREECE - Papa speech: rejects snap elections,
       doesn't resign and still defends referendum
       If Peter meant that Papa still thinks the referendum was the best idea
       I agree with him. If he means papa is still thinking of doing it in
       the future I'm with Kristen.
       Sent from my iPhone
       On Nov 4, 2011, at 17:58, Kristen Cooper <kristen.cooper@stratfor.com>
       wrote:

         I don't think that is what he said. He spent most the time
         explaining why he called it in the first place but not still having
         it.

         Kristen Cooper
         512.619.9414
         On Nov 4, 2011, at 18:53, Peter Zeihan <zeihan@stratfor.com> wrote:

           I mean papa is still saying that's his plan

           On Nov 4, 2011, at 5:41 PM, Kristen Cooper
           <kristen.cooper@stratfor.com> wrote:

             I really don't think the referendum is still on. He gave that up
             awhile ago. There is NO way he would win a confidence vote if
             people thought he was still going to call a referendum
             On Nov 4, 2011, at 6:23 PM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

               Still on the referendum
               Awesome
               On Nov 4, 2011, at 5:10 PM, Marc Lanthemann
               <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com> wrote:

                 nothing exciting or historic

                 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8846201/Debt-crisis-live.html

                 21.58 Papandreou closes his speech, rejecting talk of snap
                 elections:

                 We need to be level-headed. We are managing a crisis. We
                 need to strengthen democratic institutions or we will wound
                 democracy. We must be organised and Greece must be governed
                 without interuption. We require level-headedness, not
                 frenzy. Political parties which are going to be
                 collaborating cannot be a government on a status quo that is
                 dying.

                 What i want is to operate for today and tomorrow but not for
                 yesterday. Let's go for the citizens of Greece, for a
                 country that can be proud and dignified. I want to remind
                 foreign leaders that they should have belief in the Greek
                 people. This country is made of hard stuff and the country
                 does what it is meant to do.

                 I ask for a vote of confidence so our country has a
                 government to take necessary steps of security over the next
                 few months. The country supercedes all of us. United, we can
                 go forward.

                 21.43 More humble talk from Mr Papandreou:
                 I did not see politics as profession. I can contribute to
                 general good. When I am under criticism i want to send a
                 clear message, I hope my actions can bring about a different
                 culture in political life of the country and media and
                 citizens.

                 21.41 He opens the door for a coalition government to be
                 formed.

                 21.40 Mr Papandreou insists he is not \"clinging to power\".
                 He says he is not interested in that. The floor claps.

                 21.37 More from Mr Papandreou:

                 I broke a taboo with the referendum [...] Going against the
                 norm was for the benefit of Greece. We do have differences,
                 but we also see priorities of countries and these can best
                 be served with collaborations.
                 A transitional government would mean catastrophe. This
                 should not happen. Snap elections would mean the bail-out
                 would be up in the air.

                 21.35 He says early elections would be a \"catastrophe\".

                 21.29 Mr Papandreou continues:
                 It is in the interest of the Greek nation, this bailout. I
                 am curious how all oppositions oppose this. What did they
                 fear? Rejection by greek people of bailout?
                 [The referendum] was a democratic decision which shook the
                 markets.
                 But we the Greek nation exists which finally must decide.
                 Many on the right and on the left said we were bothering our
                 partners, and therefore there was hypocracy abound.
                 [So] yes financial markets exist, but first of all people
                 exist.

                 21.17 Mr Papandreou asks Parliament for greater
                 collaboration and cooperation. He says:
                 The bailout allows us to write-off a large part of our debt
                 in the next few months [it] permits us to give the energy to
                 build a Greece of growth.

                 Greek people, There is no problem with your deposits in the
                 banks because of the bailout. They are even more guaranteed
                 with us in the eurozone.

                 [...] This bailout is tremendous opportunity to rebuild
                 country on new foundations.

                 Papandreou steps up to address the Greek parliament on
                 Fridsy (Photo: AP)

                 21.12 There are shades of the British Commons as George
                 Papandreou finally takes the mic. He blames the previous
                 government for multiplying the debt and the a**tragic
                 mistakesa** that have been made. He adds:
                 We are living through a new trial, and some of us wish to
                 forget what has happened in the past.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-05 01:03:38",1,"2012-02-29 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1026833_re-g3-b3-greece-papa-speech-rejects-snap-elections-doesn-t.html","marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1029168,"wikileaks tasking
","   I'd like every AOR to look at the leaks from their area.  Look for two
   things.  First, is there anything significantly embarrassing to anyone. 
   Second, is there any place where Stratfor is shown to be compeltely off
   base?
   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334
","2010-11-28 20:19:44",1,"2012-02-29 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1029168_wikileaks-tasking-.html","gfriedman@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1029237,"wikileaks mirrored
","   In case the wikileaks.org site goes down again, I've mirrored it here:

    

   https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/

    

    

    

   Kevin Stech

   Research Director | STRATFOR

   kevin.stech@stratfor.com

   +1 (512) 744-4086

    
","2010-11-28 23:07:51",1,"2012-02-29 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1029237_wikileaks-mirrored-.html","","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1030004,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged \"Anonymous\" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise \"anonymous\"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
","2011-11-10 19:47:39",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1030004_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1031554,"Re: [CT] Anonymous 101: Introduction to the Lulz
","   So far extremely underwhelming, as expected. 

   10 points to whoever came up with this phrase \"ultra-coordinated
   motherfuckery\" 

   Unfortunately it is applied to people who are completely uncoordinated and
   couldn't fuck anything.  You can be sure I will find a better use for this
   phrase in the future.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marc Lanthemann\" <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   To: \"CT AOR\" <ct@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 8, 2011 2:48:49 PM
   Subject: [CT] Anonymous 101: Introduction to the Lulz

   pretty good cultural overview of anon but useless in terms of figuring out
   \"tactical\" details.

   On 11/8/11 1:30 PM, Melissa Taylor wrote:

 Haven't read it, but looks very interesting.  This is Part I.

 Recommend reading at link for pics.


 Anonymous 101: Introduction to the Lulz

 http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2011/11/anonymous-101/all/1

 November 8, 2011  |
 5:30 am

 (Any decent coverage of Anonymous is going to verge on some NSFW material at points. There will be questionable language and strange imagery.)

 Last week the net and the media were ablaze with the news that Anonymous might be taking on the Zeta drug cartel in Mexico, a story that has morphed into wider drug corruption story, and led to one American law enforcement official in North Carolina being named as a gang conspirator.

 Also this year, anons released documents on, or d0xed, several police organization and one prominent police vendor in retaliation for heavy-handed law enforcement reactions to occupations associated with the Occupy Wall Street movement. Theya**ve fought with child pornographers, hacked Sony repeatedly, and even tried to releasing compromising pictures to blackmail Bay Area Rapid Transit spokesman Linton Johnson into resigning. (Johnson claimed to have authored and then defended BARTa**s controversial decision to shut off mobile phone service in BART stations to pre-empt an anti-police brutality protest.)

 Theya**ve created law enforcement excitement thata**s verged on panic, given net and media pundits hyperbolic logorrhea about a**cyber terrorisma** and a**cyber freedoma**, and happily skipped between damn funny, deeply disturbing, and self-aggrandizing, depending on the mood of the hive mind at the moment.

 But what is Anonymous?

 In this in-depth series a**Anonymous: Beyond the Mask,a** wea**re going to do our best to answer that.

 NYU Professor and Anonymous researcher Biella Coleman compares Anonymous to the trickster god archetype.

 a**The trickster does exist across America, across Europe, really across the world and it is not in myth but in embodied in group and living practice: in that of the prankster, hacker, the phreaker, the troller (all of whom, have their own unique elements of course, but so does each trickster),a** she wrote in Social Text.

 The trickster isna**t the good guy or the bad guy, ita**s the character that exposes contradictions, initiates change and moves the plot forward. One minute, the loving and heroic trickster is saving civilization. A few minutes later the same trickster is cruel, kicking your ass and eating babies as a snack.

 The conversation about Anonymous points to this trickster nature, veering between praise and fear, with the media at a loss for even how to describe them.

 Wea**ve tried hacker group, notorious hacker group, hacktivists, the Internet Hate Machine, pimply-faced, basement-dwelling teenagers, an activist organization, a movement, a collective, a vigilante group, online terrorists, and any number of other fantastical and colorful terms. None of them have ever really fit. Anonymous has constantly forced us to reach for the thesaurus a** revealing that as a whole, we in the media have no idea what Anonymous really is or what it means.

 It wasna**t until I downloaded and listened to Lulz: A corruption of LOLa**s second album, Corruption, that I grasped what Anonymous really is.

 Ita**s a culture.

 It takes cultures to have albums, idioms, and iconography, and I was swimming in these and more. Anonymous is a nascent and small culture, but one with its own aesthetics and values, art and literature, social norms and ways of production, and even its own dialectic language.

 It is no wonder we in the media and the wider culture are often confused. Any study of Anonymous must be anthropological, taking into account the way people exist in different societies. The media has just been looking for an organization with a leader who could explain why Anonymous seems to do weird things. Not only that, but Anonymous seems to be built around doing weird things, and even has a term for it: the lulz.

 The lulz (a corruption of LOL, online shorthand for laugh out loud) is the most important and abstract thing to understand about Anonymous, and perhaps the internet itself. The lulz is laughing instead of screaming. Ita**s a laughter of embarrassment and separation. Ita**s schadenfreude. Ita**s not the anesthetic humor that makes days go by easier, ita**s humor that heightens contradictions. The lulz is laughter with pain in it. It forces you to consider injustice and hypocrisy, whichever side of it you are on in that moment.

 In the culture of Anonymous, the lulz is the reason for doing. Anonymous wasna**t made for easy times; the trickster sleeps when all is well.
 Inevitablity

 Cultures dona**t emerge from vacuums, and Anonymous is no exception. The birthplace of Anonymous is a website called 4chan founded in 2003, that developed an a**anything goesa** random section known as the /b/ board. 4chan itself comes from Japanese language predecessor called 2chan, founded in 2001. Before that, the lulz and hacker pranking was alive and well in old-school IRC chat rooms, EFnet, and the 1990s hacker scene.

 But if youa**re going back that far, add as influences Mondo 2000, and publications like RE/Search, and a billion shitty zines that were dead by 1996. But those all came from something, too.

 Hacker culture, and almost all of computer culture back in the day is shot through with the Discordian edge of 1960/1970s counter-culture and Robert Anton Wilson and Robert Sheaa**s Illuminatus. So from there ita**s the yippies, Andy Kaufmann, and the Situationists we need to first comprehend, or do we head back to early 20th century absurdists of Dada? Or maybe we venture all the way to that olde booke of epic trolling lulze, Tristram Shandy?

 Wea**re all the way to 1759 now.

 Perhaps this means the 1960s Discordians are right, and therea**s a Ha Ha Only Serious giggle that is cosmic in nature. That there is a part of reality, a force of physics, that is actually a Fundamental Sense of Humor. But the gravity we deal with can only be explained to an even larger amount of Dark Humor, woven into the fabric of the universe.

 The point is Anonymous, despite the false shock of contemporary news reporting, isna**t sui generis. Ita**s not a surprise, and it didna**t spring fully formed from the forehead of Ceiling Cat.

 In this place and time, with the exhaustion of political discourse, the overwhelming pressures of modern life, and rise of the internet, the stochastic network organism of Anonymous was inevitable.

 I will confess up front that I love Anonymous, but not because I think theya**re the heroes.

 Like Alan Moorea**s character V who inspired Anonymous to adopt the Guy Fawkes mask as an icon and fashion item, youa**re never quite sure if Anonymous is the hero or antihero. The trickster is attracted to change and the need for change, and thata**s where Anonymous goes. But they are not your personal army a** thata**s Rule 44 a** yes, there are rules. And when they do something it never goes quite as planned. The internet has no neat endings.

 The trickster as myth proved so compelling that the network made it real. Anonymous, the neta**s trickster, emerged like supernatural movie monster out of the misty realm of ideas and into the real world.

 a**Ultra-coordinated motherfuckerya**

 But to be historical, leta**s start with 4chan.org, a wildly popular board for sharing images and talking about them, and in particular, 4chana**s /b/ board (Really, really, NSFW). /b/ is a web forum where posts have no author names and there are no archives and ita**s explicitly about anything at all. This technological format meeting with the internet in the early 21st Century gave birth to Anonymous, and it remains the mothera**s teat from which Anonymous sucks. (Rule 22)

 Once you pull your hands away from your face and start looking, /b/ is hard to look away from.

 /b/ is the id of the internet, the collective unconsciousa**s version of the place from which the base drives arise. There is no sophistication in the slurs, sexuality, and destruction in the savage landscape of /b/ a** it is the natural state of networked man.

 In this, it has a kind of innocence and purity. Terms like a**niggera** and a**faggota** are common, but not there because of racism and bigotry a** though racism and bigotry are easily found there. Their use is there to keep you out. These words are heads on pikes warning you that further in it gets much worse, and it does.

 Nearly any human appetite is acceptable, nearly any flaw exploited, and probably photographed with a time stamp. But /b/ reminds us that the id is the seat of creative energy. Much of it, hell even most of it, is harmless or even sweet. People reach out for help on /b/, and they find encouragement and advice. The id and /b/ are the foxholes of those who feel powerless and disenfranchised.

 Thata**s what youa**ll find in /b/, the unspoken. a**/b/tardsa**, as denizens of the board are called and call themselves, create incest porn, fantasize about beating women, look for dataviz examples or coding tips. They are grown men that really want to talk about a**My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic.a** Maybe ita**s ironic, maybe ita**s not. (Ia**m told by one such brony that the show is just a lot better than youa**d expect.)

 At some moment lost in its unrecorded history, /b/ and Anonymous reached an inflection point, and the id spilled into the rest of the net in the form of a**ultra-coordinated motherfuckery,a** as one anon described it Coleman. This was the ability to use the technological tools of social coordination so quickly and well that anons working together could collectively attack targets for any perceived slight, or just for fun, without those targets ever having a chance to see it coming or defend themselves.

 These came to be called a**raids.a**

 Over time raids took many forms, eventually moving into the regular world. They could look like protests, massively coordinated pranks, distributed denial of service attacks (DDOS) or straight-up hacking attacks. D0xing, ordering unpaid pizzas, signing people up for embarrassing junk mail were all common raids. Therea**s a raid that you know for sure. Ita**s likely youa**ve even participated, and even more likely youa**ve been a victim of it; the rickroll. The rickroll began as a tool of the /b/tard/Anonymous raid, before spreading so far into the culture that the Oregon legislature and even the US Speaker of the House were rickrolling the world.

 Anonymous spat out other memes like lolcats and pedobear that spread far enough for their origins to be lost to many, but with little profound effect on the rest of the world.

 Even then Anonymous had a vigilante streak, and it could be downright mean. Theya**d d0x someone who abused a cat. In particular they went after abusers of cats, because Anonymous loves cats and pictures of cats. They blocked the pool at the online kida**s game Habbo Hotel with black, generously froa**d avatars declaring a**Pool is closed due to AIDSa** as a protest to perceived racism on the part of Habboa**s admins.

 But Anonymous was never particularly focused. Raids could be devastating or funny, but either way they came and went quickly, the neta**s own little tornado system. Anonymous was never anyonea**s personal army, and never stayed on any one topic for very long.

 It took Tom Cruise to change all that and give Anonymous a political consciousness. Specifically, Tom Cruise as cringe-worthy Scientologist.

 Birth of the a**Moralfagsa**

 A video of a disturbingly manic Cruise leaked out of Scientology in January 2008, and the notably litigious church tried to force hosting services and Gawker to take it down with legal nastygrams.

 But the video contained some truly epic lulz, and Anonymous wouldna**t let it die. The churcha**s effort to kill it off so enraged Anons they decided to destroy the church itself. By enraged, I mean a pissy kind of laughing and spitting at once. For Anonymous being mad meant wanting to troll the church very hard, but it was never to get serious, because getting serious for Anons meant losing.

 To accomplish this op (short for operation), Anons created Project Chanology, which arguably marked both the birth of political consciousness for Anonymous, and the development of its methods of taking mass action.

 Destroying the church was going to be aggro funny, as well as require a lot of dancing. Many have wondered since then, were they serious about destroying the church, or was it all a joke?

 The answer is yes, and understanding that is vital to understanding Anonymous.

 Therea**s no proof that the people that started Project Chanology had any personal beefs against the Church of Scientology beyond their secondhand annoyance at the Churcha**s litigious history and attempted suppression of speech. But probably most importantly, the Church was rampantly guilty of feeding the trolls. (Rule 14)

 But Project Chanology was the perfect way for the people who did have a history with Scientology to jump under the wing of the haughty and lulzy collective. Scientology had pursued its detractors with mean spirited ruthlessness, delving into critica**s personal lives, following them with investigators and ruining their reputations.

 Anonymous didna**t care. Call them rapists, and theya**d laughingly tell you they were child rapists. Accuse them of any crime, and they could point to worse on /b/. Anonymity and the a**words will never hurt mea** ethic that arose out of the aesthetic of extremes on 4chan made them immune to the Churcha**s arsenal.

 But some existing Anons, and the ones that came in from the community of Scientology detractors, really cared about winning this one. They wanted to be the good guys and Scientology to play the bad guys. The Church, they reasoned, hurt people, took their money, and lied to them under the guise of being caretakers and teachers.

 Anonymous claimed to do all those bad things too, but didna**t really, and would never promise to take care of you and teach you, but sometimes did anyway.

 As Coleman put it in her study, they were the perfect nemeses. But Anons caring about doing the right thing is about morality, and morality, at least straight morality, is not the lulz. Many veterans saw this as a corruption of the purity of Anonymous a** the cancer that was killing /b/.

 On February 10, 2008, the a**moralfagsa** took the whole thing to a new level. They set up meeting times and places in cities around the world, bought masks and made signs.

 Anons left the internet by the thousands and showed up in front of church locations and Scientology centers around the world, many wearing their new Guy Fawkes masks, V for Vendetta movie merchandise sold by Warner Brothers, to obscure their identities.

 They played music and walked around with signs which both accused Scientology of crimes and referenced obscure internet memes. They met each other in meat space for the first time. They partied with their own in front of aghast Scientologists in more than 90 cities.

 For the first time, the internet had shown up on the real street, en masse.

 And yes, they brought Long Cat.

 Coming soon: Part Two: Three Years of Epic Trolling the Church of Scientology, the LOIC, and OpPayback

 This post is part of a special series from Quinn Norton, who is embedding with Occupy protestors and going beyond the headlines with Anonymous for Wired.com. For an introduction to the series, read Quinna**s description of the project.


 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
   www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-08 23:55:18",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1031554_re-ct-anonymous-101-introduction-to-the-lulz-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","mailto:ct@stratfor.com","ct@stratfor.com",""
1031933,"Re: has the wikileaks site stopped working for anyone else?
","   Just checked, up to 505 now.  Research is backing them up as we speak.

   Marko Papic wrote:

     Let's make sure we check like every hour to see if anything has been
     further downloaded.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Kevin Stech\" <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Cc: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Wednesday, December 1, 2010 2:03:59 PM
     Subject: RE: has the wikileaks site stopped working for anyone else?

     I've got 291 cables backed up at
     https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/

      

      

     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Marko Papic
     Sent: Wednesday, December 01, 2010 14:00
     To: Analyst List
     Cc: Reva Bhalla
     Subject: Re: has the wikileaks site stopped working for anyone else?

      

     This is why it is crucial that we download all the files whenever they
     are available.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Anya Alfano\" <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Cc: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Wednesday, December 1, 2010 1:55:23 PM
     Subject: Re: has the wikileaks site stopped working for anyone else?

     Possible explanation --

     http://www.aolnews.com/surge-desk/article/did-amazon-just-pull-the-plug-on-the-wikileaks-website/19740475

            Did Amazon Just Pull the Plug on the WikiLeaks Website?

     Updated: 6 minutes ago

     Print Text Size

     Print this page|EmailShare on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on DiggShare
     on Lifestream

     David             Knowles

     David Knowles Writer

     AOL News Surge Desk

     (Dec. 1) -- Who turned out the lights?

     Today, key portions of the WikiLeaks website went down, prompting
     speculation that Amazon.com, the host for the WikiLeaks site, may have
     bowed to pressure to sever service to the whistle-blower group, The
     Associated Press reported.

     While the main page at WikiLeaks.org has been sporadically available for
     some of the day, attempts to open a link that leads to the latest trove
     of classified U.S. government documents result in an error message.

     Amazon.com has so far offered no confirmation of its possible role in
     the partial shutdown of the WikiLeaks site. But a statement released by
     Sen. Joe Lieberman confirms that Amazon has officially given WikiLeaks
     the boot:

     This morning Amazon informed my staff that it has ceased to host the
     Wikileaks website. I wish that Amazon had taken this action earlier
     based on Wikileaks' previous publication of classified material. The
     company's decision to cut off Wikileaks now is the right decision and
     should set the standard for other companies Wikileaks is using to
     distribute its illegally seized material. I call on any other company or
     organization that is hosting Wikileaks to immediately terminate its
     relationship with them. Wikileaks' illegal, outrageous, and reckless
     acts have compromised our national security and put lives at risk around
     the world. No responsible company - whether American or foreign - should
     assist Wikileaks in its efforts to disseminate these stolen materials. I
     will be asking Amazon about the extent of its relationship with
     Wikileaks and what it and other web service providers will do in the
     future to ensure that their services are not used to distribute stolen,
     classified information.

     Since releasing more than 250,000 State Department cables on a variety
     of sensitive topics, WikiLeaks.org has undergone attacks by hackers that
     have limited availability to the documents the group also released to
     The New York Times, The Guardian, Der Spiegel and Al-Jazeera.

     According to The Washington Post, at least one of the hackers
     responsible for the attack on WikiLeaks is believed to be a \"patriotic\"
     American angered by the group's ongoing campaign to publish state
     secrets.

     With Julian Assange now being hunted by Interpol, and WikiLeaks' losing
     its American web host, it might be tempting to think that the group will
     soon be out of business. But given the fact that Assange has made it
     known that he possesses a vast amount of potentially damaging
     information yet to leak, some possibly about the Bank of America,
     there's no indication that the world has heard the last of WikiLeaks.

     On 12/1/10 1:12 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     im getting nada

     --
     Marko Papic

     STRATFOR Analyst
     C: + 1-512-905-3091
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --
     Marko Papic

     STRATFOR Analyst
     C: + 1-512-905-3091
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

 --
 Matthew Powers
 STRATFOR Researcher
 Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
","2010-12-01 21:14:51",1,"2012-02-29 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1031933_re-has-the-wikileaks-site-stopped-working-for-anyone-else-.html","matthew.powers@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com","attach/98/98172_image001.jpg"
1031974,"Re: Info - Wiki Founder
","   I would think that's the second to last place he would want to go.

   GCHQ/london police/MI5 could easily find him, and I don't see why Cameron
   and friends wouldn't be 100% agreeable to extradition.

   But you're right, this is also the last report I saw. This could actually
   mean the US has decided NOT to go after him.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Bayless Parsley <bayless.parsley@stratfor.com>
   Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2010 14:14:30 -0600
   To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: Info - Wiki Founder
   no, last he was heard from was in Britain.... and he sounded SUPER
   paranoid

   this was before shit hit the fan like it has now hit following the pub of
   the diplo cables

   WikiLeaks Founder on the Run, Trailed by Notoriety

   By JOHN F. BURNS and RAVI SOMAIYA

   10/23/10

   http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/24/world/24assange.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print

   LONDON - Julian Assange moves like a hunted man. In a noisy Ethiopian
   restaurant in London's rundown Paddington district, he pitches his voice
   barely above a whisper to foil the Western intelligence agencies he fears.

   He demands that his dwindling number of loyalists use expensive encrypted
   cellphones and swaps his own the way other men change shirts. He checks
   into hotels under false names, dyes his hair, sleeps on sofas and floors,
   and uses cash instead of credit cards, often borrowed from friends.

   \"By being determined to be on this path, and not to compromise, I've wound
   up in an extraordinary situation,\" Mr. Assange said over lunch last
   Sunday, when he arrived sporting a woolen beanie and a wispy stubble and
   trailing a youthful entourage that included a filmmaker assigned to
   document any unpleasant surprises.

   In his remarkable journey to notoriety, Mr. Assange, founder of the
   WikiLeaks whistle-blowers' Web site, sees the next few weeks as his most
   hazardous. Now he is making his most brazen disclosure yet: 391,832 secret
   documents on the Iraqi war. He held a news conference in London on
   Saturday, saying that the release \"constituted the most comprehensive and
   detailed account of any war ever to have entered the public record.\"

   Twelve weeks ago, he posted on his organization's Web site some 77,000
   classified Pentagon documents on the Afghan conflict.

   Much has changed since 2006, when Mr. Assange, a 39-year-old Australian,
   used years of computer hacking and what friends call a near genius I.Q. to
   establish WikiLeaks, redefining whistle-blowing by gathering secrets in
   bulk, storing them beyond the reach of governments and others determined
   to retrieve them, then releasing them instantly, and globally.

   Now it is not just governments that denounce him: some of his own comrades
   are abandoning him for what they see as erratic and imperious behavior,
   and a nearly delusional grandeur unmatched by an awareness that the
   digital secrets he reveals can have a price in flesh and blood.

   Several WikiLeaks colleagues say he alone decided to release the Afghan
   documents without removing the names of Afghan intelligence sources for
   NATO troops. \"We were very, very upset with that, and with the way he
   spoke about it afterwards,\" said Birgitta Jonsdottir, a core WikiLeaks
   volunteer and a member of Iceland's Parliament. \"If he could just focus on
   the important things he does, it would be better.\"

   He is also being investigated in connection with accusations of rape and
   molestation involving two Swedish women. Mr. Assange has denied the
   allegations, saying the relations were consensual. But prosecutors in
   Sweden have yet to formally approve charges or dismiss the case eight
   weeks after the complaints against Mr. Assange were filed, damaging his
   quest for a secure base for himself and WikiLeaks. Though he characterizes
   the claims as \"a smear campaign,\" the scandal has compounded the pressures
   of his cloaked life.

   \"When it comes to the point where you occasionally look forward to being
   in prison on the basis that you might be able to spend a day reading a
   book, the realization dawns that perhaps the situation has become a little
   more stressful than you would like,\" he said over the London lunch.

   Exposing Secrets

   Mr. Assange has come a long way from an unsettled childhood in Australia
   as a self-acknowledged social misfit who narrowly avoided prison after
   being convicted on 25 charges of computer hacking in 1995. History is
   punctuated by spies, defectors and others who revealed the most
   inflammatory secrets of their age. Mr. Assange has become that figure for
   the Internet era, with as yet unreckoned consequences for himself and for
   the keepers of the world's secrets.

   \"I've been waiting 40 years for someone to disclose information on a scale
   that might really make a difference,\" said Daniel Ellsberg, who exposed a
   1,000-page secret study of the Vietnam War in 1971 that became known as
   the Pentagon Papers.

   Mr. Ellsberg said he saw kindred spirits in Mr. Assange and Pfc. Bradley
   Manning, the 22-year-old former Army intelligence operative under
   detention in Quantico, Va., suspected of leaking the Iraq and Afghan
   documents.

   \"They were willing to go to prison for life, or be executed, to put out
   this information,\" Mr. Ellsberg said.

   Underlying Mr. Assange's anxieties is deep uncertainty about what the
   United States and its allies may do next. Pentagon and Justice department
   officials have said they are weighing his actions under the 1917 Espionage
   Act. They have demanded that Mr. Assange \"return\" all government documents
   in his possession, undertake not to publish any new ones and not \"solicit\"
   further American materials.

   Mr. Assange has responded by going on the run, but has found no refuge.
   Amid the Afghan documents controversy, he flew to Sweden, seeking a
   residence permit and protection under that country's broad press freedoms.
   His initial welcome was euphoric.

   \"They called me the James Bond of journalism,\" he recalled wryly. \"It got
   me a lot of fans, and some of them ended up causing me a bit of trouble.\"

   Within days, his liaisons with two Swedish women led to an arrest warrant
   on charges of rape and molestation. Karin Rosander, a spokesperson for the
   prosecutor, said last week that the police were continuing to investigate.

   In late September, he left Stockholm for Berlin. A bag he checked on the
   almost empty flight disappeared, with three encrypted laptops. It has not
   resurfaced; Mr. Assange suspects it was intercepted. From Germany, he
   traveled to London, wary at being detained on arrival. Under British law,
   his Australian passport entitles him to remain for six months. Iceland,
   another country with generous press freedoms and a strong WikiLeaks
   following, has also lost its appeal, with Mr. Assange concluding that its
   government, like Britain's, is too easily influenced by Washington. In his
   native Australia, ministers have signaled their willingness to cooperate
   with the United States if it opens a prosecution. Mr. Assange said a
   senior Australian official told him, \"You play outside the rules, and you
   will be dealt with outside the rules.\"

   He faces attack from within, too.

   After the Sweden scandal, strains within WikiLeaks reached a breaking
   point, with some of Mr. Assange's closest collaborators publicly
   defecting. The New York Times spoke with dozens of people who have worked
   with and supported him in Iceland, Sweden, Germany, Britain and the United
   States. What emerged was a picture of the founder of WikiLeaks as its
   prime innovator and charismatic force but as someone whose growing
   celebrity has been matched by an increasingly dictatorial, eccentric and
   capricious style.

   Internal Turmoil

   Effectively, as Mr. Assange pursues his fugitive's life, his leadership is
   enforced over the Internet. Even remotely, his style is imperious. In an
   online exchange with one volunteer, a transcript of which was obtained by
   The Times, he warned that WikiLeaks would disintegrate without him. \"We've
   been in a Unity or Death situation for a few months now,\" he said.

   When Herbert Snorrason, a 25-year-old political activist in Iceland,
   questioned Mr. Assange's judgment over a number of issues in an online
   exchange last month, Mr. Assange was uncompromising. \"I don't like your
   tone,\" he said, according to a transcript. \"If it continues, you're out.\"

   Mr. Assange cast himself as indispensable. \"I am the heart and soul of
   this organization, its founder, philosopher, spokesperson, original coder,
   organizer, financier, and all the rest,\" he said. \"If you have a problem
   with me,\" he told Mr. Snorrason, using an expletive, he should quit.

   In an interview about the exchange, Mr. Snorrason's conclusion was stark.
   \"He is not in his right mind,\" he said. In London, Mr. Assange was
   dismissive of all those who have criticized him. \"These are not
   consequential people,\" he said.

   \"About a dozen\" disillusioned volunteers have left recently, said Smari
   McCarthy, an Icelandic volunteer who has distanced himself in the recent
   turmoil. In late summer, Mr. Assange suspended Daniel Domscheit-Berg, a
   German who had been the WikiLeaks spokesman under the pseudonym Daniel
   Schmitt, accusing him of unspecified \"bad behavior.\" Many more activists,
   Mr. McCarthy said, are likely to follow.

   Mr. Assange denied that any important volunteers had quit, apart from Mr.
   Domscheit-Berg. But further defections could paralyze an organization that
   Mr. Assange says has 40 core volunteers and about 800 mostly unpaid
   followers to maintain a diffuse web of computer servers and to secure the
   system against attack - to guard against the kind of infiltration that
   WikiLeaks itself has used to generate its revelations.

   Mr. Assange's detractors also accuse him of pursuing a vendetta against
   the United States. In London, Mr. Assange said America was an increasingly
   militarized society and a threat to democracy. Moreover, he said, \"we have
   been attacked by the United States, so we are forced into a position where
   we must defend ourselves.\"

   Even among those challenging Mr. Assange's leadership style, there is
   recognition that the intricate computer and financial architecture
   WikiLeaks uses to shield it against its enemies has depended on its
   founder. \"He's very unique and extremely capable,\" said Ms. Jonsdottir,
   the Icelandic lawmaker.

   A Rash of Scoops

   Before posting the documents on Afghanistan and Iraq, WikiLeaks enjoyed a
   string of coups.

   Supporters were thrilled when the organization posted documents on the
   Guantanamo Bay detention operation, the contents of Sarah Palin's personal
   Yahoo email account, reports of extrajudicial killings in Kenya and East
   Timor, the membership rolls of the neo-Nazi British National Party and a
   combat video showing American Apache helicopters in Baghdad in 2007
   gunning down at least 12 people, including two Reuters journalists.

   But now, WikiLeaks has been met with new doubts. Amnesty International and
   Reporters Without Borders have joined the Pentagon in criticizing the
   organization for risking people's lives by publishing war logs identifying
   Afghans working for the Americans or acting as informers.

   A Taliban spokesman in Afghanistan using the pseudonym Zabiullah Mujahid
   said in a telephone interview that the Taliban had formed a nine-member
   \"commission\" after the Afghan documents were posted \"to find about people
   who are spying.\" He said the Taliban had a \"wanted\" list of 1,800 Afghans
   and was comparing that with names WikiLeaks provided.

   \"After the process is completed, our Taliban court will decide about such
   people,\" he said.

   Mr. Assange defended posting unredacted documents, saying he balanced his
   decision \"with the knowledge of the tremendous good and prevention of harm
   that is caused\" by putting the information into the public domain. \"There
   are no easy choices on the table for this organization,\" he said.

   But if Mr. Assange is sustained by his sense of mission, faith is fading
   among his fellow conspirators. His mood was caught vividly in an exchange
   on Sept. 20 with another senior WikiLeaks figure. In an encrypted online
   chat, a transcript of which was passed to The Times, Mr. Assange was
   dismissive of his colleagues. He described them as \"a confederacy of
   fools,\" and asked his interlocutor, \"Am I dealing with a complete retard?\"

   In London, Mr. Assange was angered when asked about the rifts. He
   responded testily to questions about WikiLeaks's opaque finances, Private
   Manning's fate and WikiLeaks's apparent lack of accountability to anybody
   but himself, calling the questions \"cretinous,\" \"facile\" and reminiscent
   of \"kindergarten.\"

   Mr. Assange has been equivocal about Private Manning, talking in late
   summer as though the soldier was unavoidable collateral damage, much like
   the Afghans named as informers in the secret Pentagon documents.

   But in London, he took a more sympathetic view, describing Private Manning
   as a \"political prisoner\" facing a jail term of up to 52 years, without
   confirming that he was the source of the disclosed war logs. \"We have a
   duty to assist Mr. Manning and other people who are facing legal and other
   consequences,\" he said.

   Mr. Assange's own fate seems as imperiled as Private Manning's. Last
   Monday, the Swedish Migration Board said Mr. Assange's bid for a residence
   permit had been rejected. His British visa will expire early next year.
   When he left the London restaurant at twilight, heading into the shadows,
   he declined to say where he was going. The man who has put some of the
   world's most powerful institutions on his watch list was, once more, on
   the move.

   Eric Schmitt contributed reporting from Washington, and Dexter Filkins
   from Kabul, Afghanistan.

   On 12/1/10 1:29 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

 Is he even still in sweden?

 -----Original Message-----
 From: Lena Bell <lena.bell@stratfor.com>
 Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
 Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2010 13:10:26
 To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
 Reply-To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
 Subject: Re: Info - Wiki Founder


 Not sure that's happening re Oz; federal police have opened up an
 investigation to see whether or not any Australian criminal laws were
 broken. - where did Nick get the insight about an agreed extradition -
 there is nothing about this on OS and of course it would mean Assange
 would have to come home first. Something he is very unlikely to do.
 GovGen hasn't ruled out canceling his passport incidentally.
 His mother has recently been interviewed by the ABC and she is scared
 that he will be \"hunted down and jailed\"...  will make it difficult to
 pursue the scenario painted below. Australians are likely to back him.
 You wouldn't believe how much press/public sentiment david hicks created
 in Guantanamo Bay. It really forced the Howard govt to change tactics...
 esp when polling results overall were so poor.**

 Bayless Parsley wrote:

 The main thing I was trying to ask about earlier was in regards to the
 logistics of actually detaining the guy.

 I got the sense that Fred was saying US agents could physically do it
 in another country. Perhaps I just misunderstood what he was trying to
 say, because I find that really hard to believe (as rendition is not
 an option in this case, which is why I brought up the fact that some
 Republican congressmen are trying to call Assange a \"terrorist\" now).

 Basic fact is that any move to arrest the guy (assuming they get an
 indictment for him) would require that a friendly government do it and
 then extradite him. Nick Miller told me the Australians have already
 offered to do this, as Assange is an Australian citizen, and Australia
 is the Canada of the southern hemisphere when it comes to its
 relations with the US.

 Also, Karen had a very good point about the sex charges. Weren't those
 dropped months ago after the initial allegations? What do ya know,
 after the US explictly warned him time and again to stop publishing
 the cables, it pops back up all of a sudden...



 On 12/1/10 12:36 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

 can you charge them with anything if they paid for the information?


 On Dec 1, 2010, at 12:35 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:


 You mean by helping Manning get the information off the networks?
 Training, computer codes, flash drives, etc??
 That's a good point.

 On 12/1/10 12:31 PM, George Friedman wrote:

 He might have facilitated or suborned the access. For example,
 provided the means for distirbuting it.

 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

 ------------------------------------------------------------------------
 *From: *Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
 *Date: *Wed, 1 Dec 2010 12:19:09 -0600 (CST)
 *To: *Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
 *ReplyTo: *Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
 *Subject: *Re: Info - Wiki Founder

 I think it's very difficult to indict him on anything though.
 MAYBE espionage, but even those laws are still too old.  I think
 your FBI contact is right (sadly).  the US can really only get the
 person who did the leak, not who published it--George also pointed
 this out over the weekend.

 What would the sealed indictment be for?

 (this is also why they will get him on some other charges in
 another country....)

 On 12/1/10 12:15 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 Sealed indictment.  Hand the warrant over to the USMS to execute.
 Happens everyday.  The USMS works w/their counterparts and lock the dude
 up.

 Bayless Parsley wrote:


 How would it work if the US wanted to catch such a high profile target
 like this? Despite what one Republican senator may have said the other
 day (can't remember who, or if it was even a senator), he's not a
 \"terrorist,\" and so rendition..... wouldn't really be an option.

 But legally, you'd have to have the host government's cooperation. Is
 there any way aside from that scenario that could lead to his arrest
 on charges of breaking US laws?


 On 12/1/10 12:12 PM, Fred Burton wrote:


 >From a very good contact @ the FBI --


 How come you guys haven't picked this left-wing lunatic WikiLeaks founder up on
 some sort of trumped up charge?

 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

 1st Amendment overprotects journalists.




 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Office: +1 512-279-9479
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Office: +1 512-279-9479
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-01 21:17:05",1,"2012-02-29 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1031974_re-info-wiki-founder-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1032380,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-11 13:59:34",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1032380_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1033040,"[alpha] INSIGHT - CHINA/AUSTRALIA - Gillard Visit - CN65
","   SOURCE:  CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3/4
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   Some high level impressions for you. 
   Gillard has caved in on human rights. Her comments on human rights in
   China were prefaced with \"this is an issue which we'll disagree...\" which
   is code for \"you can ignore this because we know you will\".
   The Labor govt have taken a tough line on foreign investment lately and
   recent cyber attacks will have fortified that view in Canberra. In
   addition BHP will be telling them they have excess capital and don't need
   Chinese investment funds as they can't invest what they have. 
   The talk of closer defence ties with China is puzzling at face value but
   probably doesn't mean much. We already have military exchanges and the CDF
   does an annual visit to meet his Chinese counterpart. The statement didn't
   offer anything new. 
   Korea was just for the anniversary of the Battle of Kapyong and because
   Gillard had to have an excuse to be absent from Australia on Anzac Day. No
   business was done there with the ROK govt. 
   Japan is a different kettle of fish. In spite of WW2 Japan has long been a
   major trade partner. Gillard's statements there should be taken at face
   value. She will also have been trying to figure out Japan's real economic
   state. 
   Economically the real joker in the pack was the place she didn't visit -
   India. China will be aware the Aust govt has allowed 100% Indian ownership
   of two major resource projects in the Galilee whereas Chinese resource
   investment has been subject to strict conditions since Sept 2009 and a
   number of takeovers of similar or smaller size have been vetoed. 
   The Gillard visit to China should be examined not in the context of what
   they got, but what China didn't get.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 richmond@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4324
 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
","2011-04-28 15:52:19",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1033040_-alpha-insight-china-australia-gillard-visit-cn65-.html","ben.preisler@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1033882,"Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta conflict in
	context
","   He has long been pegged as a Zeta supporter in the Mexican Media and even
   the LA Times. There are videos all over Youtube that say he's a crook.
    
   From: Marko Primorac <marko.primorac@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Date: Tue, 1 Nov 2011 17:25:49 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict in context
   Great stuff -- I guess one thing you may want to maybe that no legal
   action has been taken against Rosario Torres to date over the Anonymous
   posting.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Matt Mawhinney\" <matt.mawhinney@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 5:16:18 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   One comment in blue. 

   On 11/1/11 4:51 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     also i don't think widget is the appropriate term - script maybe?
     protocol? kevin might actually know the technical term.

     On 11/1/11 4:48 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       I think it might be good to mention what was said in the dispatch
       discussion: that this is a brand new type of cyber attack against
       cartels, exposing rather than intel collection and disruption, which
       is what government agencies do.

       On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

          Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

         On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a
         message to the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing
         with its campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
         governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

          

         The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
         proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It
         also urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct
         physical pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase
         Guy Fawkes masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or
         physical world activities.  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic
         conspirator who was involved in a plot to bomb the British
         Parliament in 1605, and who has become somewhat of an Anarchist icon
         in the United Kingdom. The British celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each
         year on Nov. 5, and the day has special meaning for the anarchists. 
         Not incorrect but the use of the Guy Fawkes mask as the face of Anon
         stems from the graphic novel and subsequent Hollywood movie V for
         Vendetta.

          

         It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous
         set Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous
         associate who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The
         Anonymous associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous
         leaflet campaign called Operation Paperstorm.

          

         The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los
         Zetas, dubbed \"# OpCartel\" I am not sure if the hashtag is not just
         the twitter handle, should be checked is dangerous and noted that
         the collective would be assembling a hand-picked group of known and
         trusted associates to participate in a special task force to execute
         the operation. It asked supporters to use a software widget they had
         developed in order to anonymously pass information pertaining to
         drug trafficking to the task force, which will then distribute it. 

          

         With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous
         not backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would
         be useful to provide some context to the present conflict between
         Anonymous and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential
         implications.

          

         Context

          

         First it issignificant to understand that the epicenter of this
         event is Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place over the past
         few months in terms of Mexico's cartel wars. The port city also
         serves as a critical transportation hub for the narcotics smuggling
         activities of the Los Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor has
         identified Veracruz as [link
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
         ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the
         Los Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

          

         One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
         cartel's push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
         ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
         Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of
         over 50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On
         Oct. 25, Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, \"El
         Bam Bam,\" who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that
         in Veracruz at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from
         both the Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

          

         Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective
         begin to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what
         Anonymous saw as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas
         cartel, they launched Operation Paperstorm, in which activists
         associated with the Anonymous collective distributed leaflets
         throughout Veracruz claiming the state government supports Los
         Zetas.  They conducted major leaflet distributions on Aug. 13, 20,
         and 29. They also released videos to the internet on Aug. 26 and 29,
         condemning the State of Veracruz. (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous
         video, Los Zetas allegedly kidnapped one of the activists involved
         in Operation Paperstorm.)

          

         Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting
         the stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and
         their bodies hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo,
         Tamaulipas state.  Signs left with the bodies signified that Los
         Zetas had killed the pair because they had posted information
         pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs that specialize in reporting on the
         Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the body of Marisol Macias Casteneda
         was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo Laredo.   Macias who worked
         for a local newspaper allegedly posted on cartel blogs using the
         nickname \"Laredo Girl.\" A message found with her body noted that she
         was killed by Los Zetas due to her online activities.

          

         Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility
         for a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against
         the official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was
         killed by Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their
         attack on the Veracruz state website was because of the death of
         Laredo Girl.

          

         It is also important to recognize that Anonymous was also unhappy
         with the State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to
         prosecute two individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on
         Twitter on Aug. 25. The false reports alleged that a group of
         children had been abducted from a Veracruz school and the panic
         caused by the report allegedly resulted in some two dozen traffic
         accidents as terrified parents rushed to the school to check o n
         their children. The so-called \"twitter terrorists\" were initially
         charged with offenses that could have carried a 30-year sentence.
         Anonymous, which has absolute freedom of speech on the internet as
         one of its foundational principles, took umbrage with this stiff
         penalty for the Twitter case - especially because it stood in stark
         contrast with the impunity many cartel figures enjoy in Mexico. 

          

          

         Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous
         threatened Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous
         activist, Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the
         approaching Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
         ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

          

         Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a
         great deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very
         interesting response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast
         that it is a collective of people and not an organization.  As some
         Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
         accounts, suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a
         hoax and claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other
         activists suggested that the campaign should be suspended. Still
         other activists became more strident and determined in their posts,
         urging that the campaign continue. Since Anonymous is a collective,
         activists can pick and choose which actions they will participate
         in. that means in his case that those activists who want to refrain
         from the campaign will and those who want to participate will
         continue it.

          

         This will to continue was manifested on Oct. 29, the personal
         website of Gustavo RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the
         Mexican state of Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from
         Anonymous Mexico stating that Rosario was aZeta -  It was also
         reflected in the tone of the Oct. 31 message. Some activists
         associated with Anonymous clearly feel compelled to continue with
         the campaign due to the outpouring of public support they received
         in the wake of the media coverage. According to the Oct 31. Video
         statement:

          

         \"we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as
         the voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are
         on the side of the people, and we cannot let down the people,
         especially in critical moments like the one they currently live in.\"

          

         We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue
         the campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

          

         Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
         better than Star Trek)  Star Wars III-IV are, the rest don't exist
         in my book.

          

         The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
         place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and
         even degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them
         torturing, executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They
         also frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them. 
         As demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in
         September, Los Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary
         capability to trace online activity to people in thephysical world.
         It is not known if they employ their own team of dedicated cyber
         experts or if they rely on sources within the Mexican government -
         although the most likely answer is probably a little of both. 

          

          

         In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
         following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK
         have arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who
         allegedly participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested
         dozens of activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted
         against the Turkish government for its efforts to establish a
         national internet filtering system.

          

         Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts
         lightly. Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that
         will damage Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this
         group has decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in
         some sort of response. The big question is: do theypossess the
         capability to effectively trace the organizers of the
         Anonymousaction against them?

          

         One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is
         intentionally amorphous - it is also as transnational as the
         internet, and it would not be surprising if many of those chosen to
         participate in the operation against Los Zetas are located outside
         of Mexico in locations such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside
         the immediate reach of Los Zetas.

          

         But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way. 
         If Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an
         internet cafe, behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads,
         it will be very difficult to prove that they were not  associated
         with  Anonymous.  As Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is
         dangerous business.

          

          

         The Big Picture

          

         One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way
         in which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican
         middle and upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal
         cartels and theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in
         Mexico who are fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities,
         especially places like Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz,
         businessmen are being caught in a terrible bind. On one hand, they
         are receiving ever-increasing extortion demands from the cartels,
         while at the same time their business revenues are dwindling because
         people are afraid to go out due to the violence associated with
         those same cartels. This is forcing many businessmen out of
         business. It is also creating a great deal of frustration and
         resentment.

          

         At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous
         countries in the world for journalists, and many media companies
         practice heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of
         the September blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog
         del Narco, have also exhibited strong signs of fear inspired
         self-censorship.   This means that the legitimate press is not able
         to be of any real aid to the Mexican people.

          

         Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
         well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymous'
         original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some
         people to begin to talk about

         vigilante groups to fight the cartels - though that has been
         attempted before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
         http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
         ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
         group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

          

         This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to
         rely on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups
         for assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form
         of cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a
         safe way to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If
         this occurs, we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta
         controlled areas providing information to Anonymous, but citizens
         from all over the country.

          

         Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in
         an effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also
         very well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information
         on Los Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more
         reason for Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.
         Eventually Anonymous could turn their sites on the other cartels. I
         wonder if the other cartels are thinking of Anonymous more as a
         potential threat/annoyance or a way to weaken the Zetas. Probably  a
         little bit of both at this point.

          

         If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
         Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
         releasing sensitive information to the U.S. Drug Enforcement
         Administration in an attempt to damage Los Zetas. This would be an
         incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous has viewed itself as
         an opponent of the U.S. government in cases like Wikileaks. 

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Matt Mawhinney
 ADP
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: 512.744.4300 A| M: 267.972.2609 A| F: 512.744.4334
 www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-02 01:51:45",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1033882_re-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs-zeta.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1034764,"Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran
","   I am not saying that we should believe something only when it hits the OS.
   My point is about proceeding forward from a single source report. We
   shouldn't completely dismiss it but the issue is confirmation before
   something related pops up in the OS.

   On 11/14/11 9:30 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Yes but an intelligence agency that secures a single piece of insight
     that is then corroborated by the infamous OS leads one to believe that
     either the same source is responsible for both or perhaps there is smoke
     that indicates a fire?    We tend to not believe things unless there is
     OS.  The best intel never see's the light of day.  I'm more circumspect
     when it is in the OS...unless of course, we planted it.  

     p.s. I'm offended that we may believe an Iranian before a Jew. 

     cc:  APAC, JINSA. 

     On 11/14/2011 8:21 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

       As an intelligence entity we can't simply accept a single piece of
       insight as truth.

       On 11/14/11 9:10 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

         Guerrilla actions behind enemy lines.  

         If we think the Izzies have set back waiting on Iran to create a
         bomb we are like the CIA with their inability to predict just about
         anything. 

         Check INSIGHT I posted last week that everyone discounted.  How come
         if its not in OS we nash our teeth?  Intelligence agencies exist to
         have sources.  That is what we are.  

         On 11/14/2011 8:06 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

           Penetrating a major military installation and causing a blast is a
           totally different ballgame. Not saying it can't happen. But we
           can't assume that because they did stuxnet that they are capable
           of doing this blast as well. It is a huge leap in capabilities.

           Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
           Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
           Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 08:03:34 -0600 (CST)
           To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
           ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran
           It clearly does not. Look at the thousand centrifuges. Please
           reread the 2 stuxnet analyses.

           There are enough iranians who have aliyah'd to israel that they
           could easily train a persian looking, farsi speaking jew to go
           into Iran for sabotage and not get caught. I don't know that this
           is happening nor do I assume that there would not be mistakes, but
           its very possible to do this undetected. The key is recruiting
           human agents on the bases. This was clearly done with stuxnet,
           though it may have been unknowingly

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
           Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
           Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:59:47 -0600 (CST)
           To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
           ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran
           Yeah this seems really unlikely. '79 was a whole different
           reality. The security establishment has the placed locked down.
           Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Abe Selig <abe.selig@stratfor.com>
           Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
           Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:45:14 -0600 (CST)
           To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
           ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran
           There are still about 20,000 Jews in Iran (Tehran and Esfahan
           mostly), but IMO, they are far too scared of being accused as
           Israeli spies too actually help Israel out.

           On 11/14/11 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             Ah.  As stick said, they would more likely use proxies.  But if
             not,  special operations forces do often move undetected.  Don't
             think of them as going in on a helicopter, think of them as
             going in with a group of migrant workers crossing the border. 
             There used to be a lot of jews in Iran, not so much anymore,
             that's who I would recruit form. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
             To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
             Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 7:11:15 AM
             Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
             blast in Iran

             See insight below.
             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
             Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
             Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:10:06 -0600 (CST)
             To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
             ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
             Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
             blast in Iran
             what commandos?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
             To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
             Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 6:39:07 AM
             Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
             blast in Iran

             How did Israeli commandos get to operate deep inside Iran
             without being detected?
             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
             Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
             Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 05:54:41 -0600 (CST)
             To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
             ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
             Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
             blast in Iran
             I agree.  The argument here is that the proponents of
             conventional war are ones that want the oil prices--but is it
             really that simple?  What about other economic effects?  For
             Israel, by this argument, it doesn't matter what method as long
             as it sets Iran back----I agree with this.  However, the
             confidence that this guy has does not show publicly.  By that, I
             mean look at what Dagan was saying a year ago, and how quiet
             Israeli leaders have been.  Suddenly they are really pushing the
             issue, and while Dagan isn't it, his line is that conventional
             war would be a mistake, not that Iran doesn't need to be dealt
             with.  I don't really like trying to interpret public
             statements, but I think there is something here, and that's why
             I keep pushing this. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: \"Chris Farnham\" <chris.farnham@stratfor.com>
             To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
             Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 7:22:52 PM
             Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
             blast in Iran

             I think the info that Fred sent in previously needs to be looked
             quite seriously here.

             The insight seems like quite a stretch however it has been put
             out there for some reason or another and is now playing in to
             what we are seeing.

             Insight below:

             Source below was asked to clarify his remarks that the nuclear
             infrastructure had been destroyed.  Source response:

             Israeli commandos in collaboration with Kurd forces destroyed
             few underground facilities mainly used for the Iranian defense
             and nuclear research projects.

             Despite the reports in the media and against any public
             knowledge, the promoter of a massive Israeli attack on Syria is
             the axis India-Russia-Turkey-Saudi Arabia. The axis
             US-Germany-France-China is against such an attack from obvious
             reasons. Not many people know that Russia is one of Israel's
             largest military partners and India is Israel's largest client.

             If a direct conflict between Iran and Israel erupts, Russia and
             Saudi Arabia will gain the advantages on oil increasing prices.
             On the other hand, China and Europe are expected to loose from
             an oil crisis as a result of a conflict. Based on Israeli plans,
             the attack on Iran will last only 48 hours but will be so
             destructive that Iran will be unable to retaliate or recover and
             the government will fall. It is hard to believe that Hamas or
             Hezbollah will try to get involved in this conflict.

             In the open media many are pushing and expecting Israel to
             launch a massive attack on Iran. Even if the Israelis have the
             capabilities and are ready to attack by air, sea and land, there
             is no need to attack the nuclear program at this point after the
             commandos destroyed a significant part of it.

             If a massive attack on Iran happens soon, then the attack will
             have political and oil reasons and not nuclear. It is also very
             hard to believe that the Israelis will initiate an attack unless
             they act as a contractor for other nations or if Iran or its
             proxies attack first. With the revealed of the new UN report the
             Israelis have green light to take care of the Iranian proxies in
             Gaza and Lebanon now with the entire world watching Iran. I
             think that we should expect escalations on these fronts rather
             than an Israeli attack on Iran.

             On 11/7/11 8:09 AM, Chris Farnham wrote: Ah, what? Israel has
             already destroyed the Iranian prog/infra and this is all being
             engineered by Europeans so people forget about the economy
             crisis?!

             How and when did the Israelis destroy the infra on the ground?

             Why is that we see the vast majority of the increase in pressure
             coming from Israel (I mean straight from people's mouths) and
             from the US (Such as Albright in the WaPo)?

             Would anyone actually accept that this could let the Europeans
             forget about the Euro crisis, something they have been
             experiencing every day for over a year?!

             Do we attribute any credibility to this item at all? I don't
             even see what possible disinfo purposes this could serve.

             On 11/7/11 7:54 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

               Code: IL701
               Publication: for background
               Attribution: none
               Source Description - Confirmed Israeli Intelligence Agent
               Source reliability: Still testing
               Item credibility: untested
               Source handler: Fred

               Source was asked what he thought of reports that the Israelis
               were preparing a military offensive against Iran.  Response:

               I think this is a diversion. The Israelis already destroyed
               all the Iranian nuclear infrastructure on the ground weeks
               ago. The current \"let's bomb Iran\" campaign was ordered by the
               EU leaders to divert the public attention from their at home
               financial problems. It plays also well for the US  since
               Pakistan, Russia and N. Korea are mentioned in the report. 

               The result of this campaign will be massive attacks on Gaza
               and strikes on Hezbollah in both Lebanon and Syria.

               --

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
             To: analysts@stratfor.com
             Sent: Monday, 14 November, 2011 11:52:04 AM
             Subject: Re: S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
             Iran

             wow, that's an extremely revealing statement.  The Israelis (i
             believe it was even Barak then too) made very similar comments
             following the Stuxnet news as well.  THe whole 'I'm not going to
             admit publicly that we did it, but boy that was nice.' 

             i think we need a piece laying out the details as far as we know
             of what happened and where and point out the holes in the
             accident theory. i think our assessment on the constraints of an
             Israeli attack on Iranian sites holds. It's the sabotage efforts
             where the most resources are being concentrated, which makes a
             lot of strategic and tactical sense for Israel and US in dealing
             with Iran at this stage

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: \"Ben West\" <ben.west@stratfor.com>
             To: \"alerts\" <alerts@stratfor.com>
             Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 2:40:06 PM
             Subject: S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
             Iran

             Interesting comments by the defense minister.

             http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i28MvYyqR9sGxc2cZ4U1QlPPQFLA?docId=CNG.93c1b5af9b6cb71a17bf389563809eb2.a1
             Israel hails deadly blast in Iran

             (AFP) - 1 hour ago 

             JERUSALEM - Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak on Sunday hailed
             the deadly munitions blast at a base of Iran's elite
             Revolutionary Guards and hoped for more such incidents.

             \"I don't know the extent of the explosion,\" he told military
             radio, asked about the incident. \"But it would be desirable if
             they multiply.\"

             Iran said earlier that a senior general who pioneered an
             artillery and missile unit was among the 17 Guards reported
             killed in Saturday's blast at Bid Ganeh, near the town of Malard
             on the western outskirts of Tehran.

             Guards spokesman commander Ramezan Sharif said the blast, which
             Iran said was an accident, occurred as \"ammunition was taken out
             of the depot and was being moved outside toward the appropriate
             site.\"

             Set up after the 1979 Islamic revolution to defend Iran, the
             Guards are in charge of the Islamic republic's missile
             programme, including Shahab-3 missiles with a range of 2,000
             kilometres (1,200 miles) capable of hitting Israel.

             Saturday's blast came amid international condemnation of Iran
             since the release of a new UN nuclear watchdog report accusing
             Tehran of working towards the development of nuclear warheads to
             fit inside its medium-range missiles.

             Israeli officials have in past weeks warned Iran of the
             possibility of military strikes against its nuclear sites.

             Ben West
             Tactical Analyst
             STRATFOR
             512-744-4300
             ext. 4340

             --

             Chris Farnham
             Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
             Australia Mobile: 0423372241
             Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
             www.stratfor.com

             --
             Sean Noonan
             Tactical Analyst
             STRATFOR
             T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
             www.STRATFOR.com

             --
             Sean Noonan
             Tactical Analyst
             STRATFOR
             T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
             www.STRATFOR.com

             --
             Sean Noonan
             Tactical Analyst
             STRATFOR
             T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
             www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 -
 Abe Selig
 Officer, Operations Center
 STRATFOR
 T: 512.279.9489 | M: 512.574.3846
 www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-14 15:40:05",1,"2012-03-26 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1034764_re-alpha-s3-g3-israel-iran-barak-hails-munitions-blast-in.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1035283,"Re: [Fwd: WikiLeaks Prosecution Faces Hurdles]
","   This seems like a pretty good analysis.=A0 Certainly better than most of
   our own conjecture.= =A0

   \"Given that Assange has run hundreds of thousands of classified documents
   on his web site, each one that is properly classified could be included as
   a separate count of an indictment.\"
   - I look forward to Manning and Assange facing a bajillion-thousand counts
   of espionage.=A0

   On 12/2/10 11:05 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

 =93The espionage laws, believe it or not, do not make =
 an exception for
 reporters,=94 Martin says. However, as a matter of policy, reporters and
 publishers have never been charged under espionage laws.



 Fred Burton wrote:

 -------- Original Message --------
 Subject:        WikiLeaks Prosecution Faces Hurdles
 Date:   Thu, 2 Dec 2010 12:00:46 -0500
 From:   KesslerRonald@gmail.com <KesslerRonald@gmail.com>
 Reply-To:       KesslerRonald@gmail.com
 To:     Ronald Kessler <kesslerronald@gmail.com>



     _WikiLeaks Prosecution Faces Hurdles_
     <h=
 ttp://www.newsmax.com/RonaldKessler/WikiLeaks-Assange-espionage-EricHolder/=
 2010/12/02/id/378730>


     Newsmax


   WikiLeaks Prosecution Faces Hurdles

 Thursday, December 2, 2010 11:43 AM

 *By: Ronald Kessler*

 WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange can be prosecuted in this country for
 espionage, but he may never be brought back to the United States to face
 the charges.

 That=92s the judgment of John L. Martin, arguably the country=92s foremost
 expert on the subject.

 For 25 years, Martin was in charge of espionage prosecutions by the
 Justice Department. By the time he retired in August 1997, Martin had
 supervised the prosecution of 76 spies. Only one of the prosecutions
 resulted in an acquittal.

 Attorney General Eric Holder Jr. has said the Justice Department has an
 =93active, ongoing criminal investigation=94 of Assange, who is in hiding,
 over his apparent release of classified documents.

 While Assange could be indicted, =93as long as he stays out of the United
 States, we don=92t have any jurisdiction over him,=94 Martin tells Newsmax.
 =93Moreover, because espionage is considered under international law to be
 a political offense, extradition treaties do not cover those accused of
 violating the espionage laws of any country.=94

 A major reason is that espionage laws could be applied to foreign
 intelligence officers who are under nonofficial cover and therefore have
 no diplomatic immunity from prosecution. In addition, a country such as
 Great Britain has an Official Secrets Act that would apply espionage
 laws to publishing material that other countries may not consider major
 breaches of security.

 As a result, countries are wary of supporting such laws by honoring
 extradition requests.

 =93You would never want to put your people in jeopardy by sending an
 intelligence officer without diplomatic immunity back to that country to
 face trial for violating its espionage laws,=94 says Martin, who was an
 FBI agent before becoming the country=92s chief spy prosecutor.

 So, while Assange could be charged by the United States, =93He would have
 to come into the United States voluntarily or by some ruse,=94 Martin says.

 However, aside from any treaties, Martin says a foreign country could
 decide to cooperate by putting him on a boat or airplane destined for
 this country under guard. That has happened in the past, Martin says.

 While Assange would argue that he is a journalist and therefore exempt
 from espionage laws, those laws actually have no exception for
 journalists, editors, or publishers, Martin says.

 =93The espionage laws, believe it or not, do not make an exception for
 reporters,=94 Martin says. However, as a matter of policy, reporters and
 publishers have never been charged under espionage laws.

 Martin says Assange could be charged under Section 793 of Title 18 of
 the U.S. Code, which prohibits unauthorized receipt, possession, or
 transmittal of classified documents, or under Section 798, which
 prohibits disclosure or publication of classified communications
 intelligence information.

 Given that Assange has run hundreds of thousands of classified documents
 on his web site, each one that is properly classified could be included
 as a separate count of an indictment. As a result, he could face a
 mounting prison term equivalent to a sentence of life in prison upon
 conviction, Martin says.

 The military arrested Private First Class Bradley Manning, suspected of
 being the source of the leaked documents, last May after WikiLeaks ran a
 video it had allegedly obtained from him. Taken by cameras on U.S.
 Apache helicopters, it shows several civilians, including two Reuters
 employees, being killed in a U.S. strike in Iraq in 2007.

 In an online chat, the Iraq-based intelligence analyst boasted about
 making available such classified material to the world.

 =93Since Manning did not transmit these documents to an agent of a foreign
 power, the more serious espionage offense that carries life imprisonment
 or death would not apply,=94 Martin says.

 However, =93The military will be looking to indict Manning on multiple
 counts of violating Section 793 of Title 18 of the U.S. Code by passing
 national security information to an unauthorized person,=94 Martin says.

 The government will have to establish that the documents it selects to
 be included in the prosecution =93related to the national defense, that
 they were protected information, and that the disclosure of these
 documents to unauthorized persons could damage national security,=94
 Martin says. =93You don't have to prove actual damage, only the
 possibility that it could cause damage.=94

 The fact that Manning will face a military court martial gives the
 government an advantage, Martin says.

 =93It=92s going to be a prosecution where classified documents are central
 to the government=92s case, and in that situation a military judge may
 close the courtroom to the public to take classified testimony or when
 the documents are introduced into evidence,=94 Martin says. =93You can=92t
 close a public trial in a civilian courtroom.=94

 Another advantage in a military case is that each time a soldier commits
 a violation, he can be charged with violating general orders, a separate
 crime.

 =93There's no such offense in civilian court,=94 Martin says.

 Since each properly classified document would represent a separate
 count, =93Manning would face the possibility of 100 years or more in
 prison,=94 Martin says. =93They could put him away for life if they do it
 right.=94


 *Ronald Kessler is chief Washington correspondent of Newsmax.com. View
 his previous reports and get his dispatches sent to you free via e-mail.
 Go here now <http://newsmax.com/blogs/RonaldKessler/id-69&=
 gt;.*



 =20=20

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-02 18:10:41",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1035283_re-fwd-wikileaks-prosecution-faces-hurdles-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","burton@stratfor.com,analysts@stratfor.com,sf@feldhauslaw.com,tactical@stratfor.com",""
1035582,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   yes, marc called them a mob - and that seems accurate

   On 10/24/11 1:33 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     Good point. 
     In terrorist terms they are more like grassroots people than AQ core. 
     From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
     Reply-To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:11:05 -0500
     To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
     Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They
     are a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
     online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do
     this in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people
     joining Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or
     something like that. 

     Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

     On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
       these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
       I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
       whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
       because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
       revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
       understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
       expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
       coercion.

       Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
       cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of
       el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication
       as a tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable
       intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels. That's a
       physical threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify
       that Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact
       to the cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival
       cartels or the GoM. They may release information on a given politician
       being linked to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the
       politician will feel an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a
       link, doesn't make it true). It would be up to others to take action. 
       I think the way you have it worded in the above sentence is good. 
       Follow with a sentence explaining the rest of it, because readers will
       have the same question Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat
       to cartels would come in what information anonymous could expose that
       is useful to their enemies'

       Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
       activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to
       conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how
       much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
       vulnerability I have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't
       have specific examples which could be used in assessing their
       vulnerability online.

       by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
       arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
       should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
       politicians as colluding.
       On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
         possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
         Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using
         the banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
         cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
         find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
         being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico
         and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
         posting flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the
         Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is
         good and will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a
         quick explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding
         something in the explaining the flyers will work]

         Link: themeData
         Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
         denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate
         websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
         statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
         depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
         October 10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold
         threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
         releasing identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they specify
         whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
          What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
         group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
         face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
         their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
         potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
         presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational
         criminal organization, it's not really unique.  Many such
         organizations do their crimes online, and have been hacked in
         response--like the nigerian princess scams. I think you should just
         say it's a unique threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out
         at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels
         dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
         threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a
         gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for
         the using publication as a tool to force government action. If you
         reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it against
         the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
         media
              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
         at cartels

         While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
         threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

                 -The threat is in the information they can expose that may
     be of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or
     other cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but
     i could imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the
     public).

              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
         identifiable information on cartel members 
              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
         cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
         section/paragraph]
              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
         identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
         the realm of possibilities for
                     Anonymous
                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
         illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels
         are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We
         don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
         operational vulnerability

        -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
     (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
     cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
     replaceable. 
                 -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents
     have access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any
     sort of existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

         Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
         world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that
         some of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to
         the violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is
         there are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems
         very possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have
         joined up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of
         cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other
         countries may act with confidence when sitting in front of a
         computer, but this may blind them to any possible retribution. They
         may not even know the impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the
         part below and above is written rather normatively.  We need to take
         that out.  just state the facts]
              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
         will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
         individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
         drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
         halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not have
         a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
         Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
         consequences from this. by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you
         mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens all
         the time.
              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
         are willing to go protect their operations.
                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                 o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
         community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
         them.
                 o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
         discovering hackers within Mexico.
         need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply
         publishing tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the
         same camp as the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that
         their damage will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can
         do--limited.  But maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are
         no longer challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

          

         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
           there are several issues to address and fix here.

           These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
           discussion:

                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
           we can't gloss over that fact
                o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
           between stealing bank records from government computers and
           overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
           information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
           kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
           politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
           going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
           killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
           operational details, because they acted as informants, because
           they exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied
           the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is
           damaging to the cartels themselves?
                o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
           realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure
           of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for
           the technical ability by a very small number of its members to
           infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information.
           Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that
           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
           information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
           of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
           consequences of dissemination.
                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
           back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings
           done by people who may not understand the difference between an
           anon hacker and a blogger.

           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                 From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
             Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                   To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

             you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
             lot more work

             You need to lay out:

             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
             is unclear
             b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
             therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
             d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
             who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

             I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
             insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
             levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
             the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
             is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
             business online, in a protected fashion.

             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
             c: 512.750.7234
             STRATFOR
             www.stratfor.com
             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             Link: themeData

             Trigger

             Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
             Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
             out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
             denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
             depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
             exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
             makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
             releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
             politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
             The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
             member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
             between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
             unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
             operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
             Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
             believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
             not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience
             with hackers.

              

             In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned
             as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
             demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned
             right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening
             to hit back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
             guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous'
             claims of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
             operations are true, cartels will likely respond with violence
             against individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you
             mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
             disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the
             GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
             don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
             Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
             against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
             continue their threats against any individual using online media
             WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about
             bloggers here. against the cartels.

              

             The Battle Space

             Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
             realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
             of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
             geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
             exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
             are physical people tho live in the real world. They have names
             and addresses - although most of them are likely outside of MX.)
              Anonymous' power base consists of their technical capabilities
             in hacking. Any information connected to the Internet is
             vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of
             individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population
             could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
             has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
             company with a website that brings in revenue, but it does not
             really matter if you don't run operations on the web. Los Z
             don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far less
             dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

             Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
             base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
             believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
             through the internet. This gives an opening for people
             disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
             dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
             Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
             themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious IT
             capability. 

             The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
             from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

             The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
             Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
             maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
             commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
             and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight.
             There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
             capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
             and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
             experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
             always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
             While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
             Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
             the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media
             outlets. Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to
             cover details of their operations. ok... but that's kind of a
             red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus on the
             possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
             have no cyber presence.

              

             Anonymous' Weapons

             Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
             criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
             combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
             disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
             anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites in
             Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
             admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
             guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
             campaign by technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
             should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream media
             outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
             operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
             bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed
             with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a
             blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce cartels
             on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
             really addressing the subheading

             As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
             risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
             Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
             release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
             Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
             individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
             information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
             Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
             considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
             compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
             networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence
             collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to
             say here? This isn't clear at all

              

             Cartel's Defense

                         A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
             yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
             member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
             threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
             response? also this undermines your statements above about how
             Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
             vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
             Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you
             some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
             Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
             cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed
             for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
             dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and
             we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
             disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can
             operate in any region of the world. Personal information
             including locations is only available if a hacker chooses to
             divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
             figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels
             are only capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can
             physically reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of
             their own under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
             Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                         Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
             Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
             help of computer science majors through personal threats has
             been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
             Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
             trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
             experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
             identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
             is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
             operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such
             as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources
             than cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations.
             A) How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
             kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are
             equally difficult to track down

                         In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
             likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with,
             brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
             operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they
             wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
             communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
             members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
             likely continue to be used to scare online media into submission
             i'm not really seeing the online media-international hacking
             group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
             inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
             encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel
             violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to be
             seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
             the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff
             and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
             inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 20:39:58",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1035582_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1035690,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   if anonymous outs taxi cab drivers working with Zeta, they are dead.  that
   is both simple and devastating.  If they release email accounts of GOM
   folks, and there are cartel members in that address book that would be
   devastating.  I think our definitions of devastating are different.  I
   agree the ability of these folks to bring down governments is minimal, but
   I am willing to bet the next deep throat scenario will come via a hacker
   and information they are able to steal. 

   On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  The question is if the attack is high
     priority enough.  Many people assume there is no attribution because
     there is no response, but I don't think that is accurate. 
     has NSA told you otherwise?  i am unclear, are you saying the entire
     darknet is mapped, or could be mapped, only it isn't because the NSA
     doesn't care or doens't share? 
     3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new laptop and
     start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack involves much more than
     a recently bought laptop.  In the same way there is an attack cycle for
     a terrorist attack or crime, there is one for a cyber attack.  A very
     simple attack may be as hard to trace as a nearly-random mugging in the
     dark in a neighborhood with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.
     so simple=low damage, and complicated = more damage?  if you hacked
     Calderon's blackberry and found out who his contacts were, and one of
     them was Chapo's sister, it would be simple and devastating.  A more
     complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational surveillance,
     developing exploits, developing programs and code, gaining access,
     exploiting that, and carrying out an attack.  And that takes time,
     giving more time for your exposure. Look at everything that went into
     Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person with a
     new laptop.  All of this activity provides activity and evidence which
     helps for attribution.  Of course it is always possible to develop an
     attack, just like any other operation, that even the best law
     enforcement and national intelligence agencies have trouble or cannot
     attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that it's very difficult for
     someone to successfully use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID,
     Aman, etc, be unable to attribute it.  They may not choose to cover it
     if it is small scale crime, however. 
     On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored cyber
       warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing that, since
       you can conduct a cyber attack without associating with a hacker group
       and still deny / cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual
       attacking US computer assets from China, may be working by himself or
       on behalf of the Chinese government, but unless the US has other intel
       on the Chinese government's cyber warfare activities in order to
       corroborate there is little capability to distinguish.

       It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
       operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from
       SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual responsible for
       hacking State run servers. In the past, I have turned to SIGINT
       organizations for collections on computer related material, but this
       was due to the US being behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where
       to assign responsibility. However, this has changed dramatically in
       the last couple of years.

       Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an
       extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a
       Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the online
       activity to something revealing (accessing personal email accounts,
       tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop, etc..), and
       begin hacking government email accounts then never use the laptop
       again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of my appearance
       from Starbuck's patrons or possible security cameras, I can not think
       of way to identify me.

       Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to these
       enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to specific
       computer-related activities because of the difficulty in identifying
       individuals.

       I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be blown, would
       be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common
       participant in \"Anonymous\" activities, was working for a State?
       Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that State agent
       organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs
       could a LEA look for to distinguish?

       On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a bit)

         1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything actually
         harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but i'm very
         doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real case where
         they could do some minor damage--to individual people, not not to an
         organization or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
         threat. 

         2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually
         pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover, but
         that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could probably still be
         attributed if important enough to those agencies.  The recent attack
         on Sony actually brings this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves
         anonymous denies they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have
         claimed an publicized attacks in the past, even before they were
         carried out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
         sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
         coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted Sony's IT
         security).  But whoever did it, again, no real damage came of it. 
         Congress is holding hearings over data security, but this is no
         different than the OC groups stealing your credit card information. 
         LE will go after them, have some success, but the threat is not that
         large. 
         On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

           Link: themeData

           I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
           broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
           almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
           Reviewing their list of attacks
           (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of
           the cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the
           internet . The interesting thing when it comes to their
           interactions with the cartels is the dubious role they play: at
           the same time they can be fighting crime by revealing cartel
           members/supporters, but they can also put lives in risk.

           However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
           Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can
           conduct a cyber attack under \"Anonymous\" is worrisome.
           (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

           If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
           websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know
           more about these guys. Who they are? What are they interested in?
           How they operate? Who they have targeted so far? How can I defend
           myself from them? In what countries are they active? Should I
           worry about them at all? Can I use them to achieve any particular
           goal?

           On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else
             can build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they
             pose to innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico. 
             By focusing on journalists or taxi drivers they show little
             understanding of the situation.  This has long term implications
             in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
             their actions and they act without understanding the
             environment.  It was the same when they released information on
             the Sony Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt
             innocent people to prove a point. 

             On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
               possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
               Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by
               Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on cartels
               as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
               find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
               individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
               (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it
               may be an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
               Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

               Link: themeData
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
               distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government
               websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
               statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a
               video depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug
               cartels on October 10? With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
               Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
               police, politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
               cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow
               kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In the
               Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
               day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands
               of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
               conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
               presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
               lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any
               reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers
               before. 

               What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                    o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
               threat to Mexican cartels.
                    o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit
               online media
                    o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to
               lash out at cartels

               While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose
               a threat
                    o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
               identifiable information on cartel members
                    o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could
               acquire on cartels
                    o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
               communications, identifiable information on cartels members
               have to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                           Anonymous
                           o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to
               reveal illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

               Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
               ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
               result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
               limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting in
               front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
               retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online
               assault of cartels.
                    o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
               journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some
               of these individuals are forced to collude with cartels.    
                         Taxi drivers are often victims of extortion or
               coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
               individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel    
                             operations. Politicans have been accused of
               working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor) before,
               however there has yet to be any consequences from this.
                    o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent
               cartels are willing to go protect their operations.
                       o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                       o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
               community before, coercing computer science majors into
               working for them.
                       o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
               discovering hackers within Mexico.

                

               On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                 Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea
                 but there are several issues to address and fix here.

                 These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
                 discussion:

                      o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's
                 fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                      o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a
                 difference between stealing bank records from government
                 computers and overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                      o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
                 information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of
                 info is kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You
                 seem to be talking about identities, whose? If anything it's
                 dirty cops, politicians and businessmen who need to worry
                 about what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                 bloggers and media were killed in previous instances. Was it
                 because they revealed operational details, because they
                 acted as informants, because they exposed links with
                 officials or because they somehow sullied the cartel's
                 reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
                 to the cartels themselves?
                      o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon
                 can realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes
                 a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence
                 capacity except for the technical ability by a very small
                 number of its members to infiltrate certain networks and
                 databases and steal information. Now what kind of
                 information would a cartel keep on a network that is
                 connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else
                 could information be found? Government databases? Once we
                 know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
                 know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                      o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
                 trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
                 killings done by people who may not understand the
                 difference between an anon hacker and a blogger.

                 On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                   -------- Original Message --------

                    Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                       Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                       From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
                   Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                         To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

                   you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to
                   need a lot more work

                   You need to lay out:

                   a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
                   section is unclear
                   b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is,
                   and therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
                   c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
                   anything
                   d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
                   anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their
                   connections

                   I also just want to point out that we have reasonable
                   reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some
                   significant levels of sophistication in their online
                   presence, to include the use of cyber currencies and
                   significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume that
                   Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
                   protected fashion.

                   Karen Hooper
                   Latin America Analyst
                   o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                   c: 512.750.7234
                   STRATFOR
                   www.stratfor.com
                   On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                   On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                   Link: themeData

                   Trigger

                   Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
                   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
                   lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
                   statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including
                   a video released depicting...? a person talking? a voice?
                   words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent
                   video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                   criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
                   Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                   journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
                   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
                   otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
                   between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                   unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                   different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a
                   conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
                   experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
                   experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
                   that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                    

                   In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                   reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member
                   this should be mentioned right up front. Cartels have a
                   member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
                   enough details so we understand who this guy is and
                   why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims
                   of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
                   operations are true, cartels will likely respond with
                   violence against individuals revealed as opposing cartel
                   members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is
                   likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude
                   with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
                   Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
                   means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                   effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
                   Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
                   continue their threats against any individual using online
                   media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking
                   about bloggers here. against the cartels.

                    

                   The Battle Space

                   Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                   separate realities from each other. Anonymous operates
                   solely in sphere of the computer networks. Anonymous does
                   not experience geographical boundaries. All personalities
                   within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
                   not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in
                   the real world. They have names and addresses - although
                   most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                   base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking.
                   Any information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to
                   exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual
                   cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
                   be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
                   has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or
                   a big company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                   it does not really matter if you don't run operations on
                   the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They
                   are also far less dependent on the web than the
                   jihadists.)

                   Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's
                   power base consists of the perceived anonymity that its
                   members believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by
                   operating through the internet. This gives an opening for
                   people disgruntled by anything and everything to practice
                   general dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity +
                   audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
                   people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any
                   sort of serious IT capability. 

                   The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
                   been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

                   The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in
                   US and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always
                   looking to maximize profits and expand. But they are
                   bricks and mortar commerce. Yes..... but they use the
                   internet to launder money and issue commands. We know that
                   Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to
                   assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity. 
                   Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                   escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
                   experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels
                   are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
                   violence. While battling each other, cartels still face
                   arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
                   avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money,
                   cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists
                   and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
                   operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
                   discussion. You need to focus on the possible
                   vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
                   have no cyber presence.

                    

                   Anonymous' Weapons

                   Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions
                   against criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous'
                   only ability to combat cartels lay in information
                   operations, mainly disseminating sensitive information on
                   cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via social
                   media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and
                   that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                   cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of
                   a targeted information operations campaign by technically
                   elite individuals can not be overlooked should not be
                   underestimated. Cartels view main stream media outlets and
                   social media blogs as such a threat to their operations,
                   that they have continued to target journalists and
                   bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was
                   placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
                   body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
                   denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
                   here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

                   As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                   internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample
                   reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing
                   information they threaten to release. By releasing
                   identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
                   cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
                   individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
                   information is limited by what is available via the
                   Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
                   should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
                   However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                   governments computer networks, information available to
                   Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to
                   acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
                   clear at all

                    

                   Cartel's Defense

                               A counter response to the video? by the
                   cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                   claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los
                   Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by hackers
                   so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
                   undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is
                   soley internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities
                   of associated members. How did they find teh Anonymous
                   member? The answer to that could very well give you some
                   indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
                   Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web
                   , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
                   rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG
                   has whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in
                   cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
                   indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
                   cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any
                   region of the world. Personal information including
                   locations is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge
                   it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                   figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous.
                   Cartels are only capable of dealing with their online
                   enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
                   employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
                   Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                               Cartels have been known to coerce the services
                   of Mexican citizens with a technical background.
                   Recruiting the help of computer science majors through
                   personal threats has been reported in the past where? What
                   cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
                   world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will
                   likely need the assistance of technical experts to help
                   combat any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                   bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
                   unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
                   operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
                   such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and
                   resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers through
                   investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
                   (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume
                   that not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                               In order to compete with an online foe,
                   cartels will likely continue counter tactics they are most
                   familiar with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of
                   their HUMINT operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would
                   we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged
                   connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
                   and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
                   public display of violence will likely continue to be used
                   to scare online media into submission i'm not really
                   seeing the online media-international hacking group
                   connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                   inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
                   encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
                   cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will
                   remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
                   capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could
                   call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off
                   any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 22:29:35",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1035690_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1037604,"Re: [alpha] Cryptic note from an Israeli diplomat on iran blasts
","   Agree

   I raised this a few days ago.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2011 13:48:24 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Cryptic note from an Israeli diplomat on iran blasts
   Two answers. First if you see my own comment I have this from multiple non
   diplomatic sources. Second israel wants to telegraph this. They want it to
   be known that they did it in order to intimidate the iranians. That's why
   they authorize diplomats to talk.
   The question is whether they did it or are taking credit for the accident.
   My judgment based on conversations is that they did do it. They are making
   that very public but unofficial. The mystery is how they did it.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2011 13:44:08 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Cryptic note from an Israeli diplomat on iran blasts
   I have a question on this.  Reva's original source for this is a diplomat.
    It seems to me that he or she would not have need to know, and therefore
   probably would not know what really happened operationally.  To me that
   seems to show a degree of political coordination to create a certain
   perception.  It looks to me like that is what is going on---the first peep
   about this was from Barak and then it went down the chain from there.  
   George, why do you think your sources are so confident on this missile
   base and were not on Stuxnet or the dead scientists, etc?  How is it not a
   question of timing and trying to figure out how to push harder in Iran?

   And please keep in mind that I think this was sabotage, I've been arguing
   this for months.  But I don't know, and I'm also very skeptical of such
   leaks and public claims. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 10:28:36 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Cryptic note from an Israeli diplomat on iran blasts

   Slams should be slcm. Sorry.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
   Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2011 04:24:52 +0000
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: friedman@att.blackberry.net
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Cryptic note from an Israeli diplomat on iran blasts
   Everything I'm hearing from israel is that they did it. Its not clear if
   it was spec ops or if it was slams but they are claiming it. The claims go
   too wide to be simply orchestrated. They are really gloating and my gut
   tells me its true this time. They are near dancing. Could be just crap but
   I am taking it seriously. The sources are good on this.
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <reva413@gmail.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 22:11:48 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [alpha] Cryptic note from an Israeli diplomat on iran blasts
   Iran a** lovely smoke (and as we know , there is a fire behinda*|)

   Sent from my iPhone

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
   www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-15 21:17:10",1,"2012-03-06 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1037604_re-alpha-cryptic-note-from-an-israeli-diplomat-on-iran.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1037771,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   I disagree that Anonymous doesn't matter, but I agree the point of
   Tristan's piece is what makes this interesting.  innocent people could
   die, and that sucks.

   On 10/25/11 9:57 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     No, I didn't say that. 

     Sometimes we write about things--the most obvious and comparable example
     being Wikileaks-- that don't matter and explaining why they don't
     matter.  Another example being some of the grassroots terrorists who
     have been picked up in the US,  say Mohamad Osman Mohamad (sp?) for
     example.  He didn't matter, but we can provide a very good and cogent
     explanation of the threats he did and did not offer that few others do
     (or maybe no one else).

     But I don't think we have the expertise to truly deal with Anonymous and
     I don't care to give them more press for not doing much.  Tristan's
     piece on the other hand gets at a new and developing issue in what they
     are trying to do.  It's an anomaly i think that is worth covering.  It
     is probably the first time we will see violence as a result of their
     activities. 

     On 10/25/11 9:35 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

       So, until Anonymous doesn't become a national threat we shouldn't
       write about it?

       On 10/24/11 8:17 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         There's enough information on what's behind the Aurora attacks to
         respond and shut them down. 

         Change everything I said about SIGINT to CNO combined with
         all-source analysis and maybe human investigations.  Same point
         applies. With the low-level shit, it's usually not investigated.

         As far as I'm concerned an attack that matters is something
         seriously affects a country's capabilities relative to others.  (in
         this, intelligence can seriously affect those abilities, as it
         allows for them to be countered or become less advtantageous,
         relatively)
          

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Tristan Reed\" <tristan.reed@stratfor.com>
         To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
         Sent: Monday, October 24, 2011 7:33:59 PM
         Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels

         As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever
         identify the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target
         set was the only thing that led people to believe the Chinese
         government was responsible.

         2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
         responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
         cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case
         HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
         capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers.
         NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers but it does
         not make it SIGINT.

         Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

         Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
         SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by
         communication devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the
         signals. Combining computer network operations and SIGINT is
         innaccurate, because while SIGINT may be used with other
         intelligence disciplines in order to identify a hacker, it is not
         necessary and is no more related than any other intel discipline.
         SIGINT could help you identify a computer devices (not the operator)
         emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis, which is also separate
         from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could help in providing
         methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT wouldn't
         obtain those messages.

         In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators
         involved are specifically trained in computer science disciplines
         and technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

         NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
         technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
         resources in R&D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to
         NSA. But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO
         capabilities.

         Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary
         labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
         discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage to
         extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber
         attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered. 
         You chose the most prolific example of a cyber attack (which the
         whole operation consisted mainly outside of the cyber attack
         itself). Anything that falls short of this doesn't matter? Define
         what matters. None of anonymous' attacks have physically damaged
         secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think you are downplaying
         too much the significance of exposing corporate secrets, halting
         businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by defacing
         their websites.

         On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
               arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
               foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage
               undetected? No, of course not.  But I also would not argue
               that the SVR is so good to be immune to detection, as you are
               arguing with hackers.  I'm saying they are more detectable
               than you think.  There is no such thing as truly anonymous. 
               Everythign leaves a trail.  Will that trail in every instance
               lead to a single individual? no.  but it can lead to a place,
               an organization, and often, an individual. 

               2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
               responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to
               investigating cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to
               corroborate, in this case HUMINT is just as significant as
               SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not indicate its
               capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
               department for tracking hackers but it does not make it
               SIGINT.

               Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

               The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
               people assume there is no attribution because there is no
               response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
               this, because no attribution is one reason for no response. 
               Yes, they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for
               lack of response, then I think they are wrong. 

               3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
               laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
               involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same
               way there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime,
               there is one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be
               as hard to trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a
               neighborhood with much more serious crime and no CCTV
               cameras.  A more complicated attack, however, involves
               pre-operational surveillance, developing exploits, developing
               programs and code, gaining access, exploiting that, and
               carrying out an attack.  Discovering exploits and writing code
               can be done entirely offline, out of sight of law enforcement
               or intel agencies. Pre-operational surveillance and gaining
               access (the point of the exploit you write offline) would fit
               in my example. The point is, if you don't link your computer
               to identifiable information, you remain anonymous. Just like
               people use certain methods to build IEDs, people use certain
               mehtods to design programs and code for cyber attacks.  Over
               time, those methods become identifiable and more and more
               attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is linked back
               to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add. Being
               connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
               to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of
               those things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving
               more time for your exposure Exposure comes from network
               activity with the target, a lot of the pre-operational phase
               of an attack can occur without network activity. Look at
               everything that went into Stuxnet as a great example, that
               couldn't be done with one person with a new laptop. Writing
               the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
               for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
               discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage
               to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of
               a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not
               mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
               evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
               possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation,
               that even the best law enforcement and national intelligence
               agencies have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My
               point is that it's very difficult for someone to successfully
               use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be
               unable to attribute it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is
               effective in identifying hackers?I don't, but I'm confident
               they are far better than you are allowing for.    They may not
               choose to cover it if it is small scale crime, however. 
               On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                 I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state
                 sponsored cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in
                 actually doing that, since you can conduct a cyber attack
                 without associating with a hacker group and still deny /
                 cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual
                 attacking US computer assets from China, may be working by
                 himself or on behalf of the Chinese government, but unless
                 the US has other intel on the Chinese government's cyber
                 warfare activities in order to corroborate there is little
                 capability to distinguish.

                 It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
                 operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT.
                 Assets from SIGINT would not directly help you track an
                 individual responsible for hacking State run servers. In the
                 past, I have turned to SIGINT organizations for collections
                 on computer related material, but this was due to the US
                 being behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where to
                 assign responsibility. However, this has changed
                 dramatically in the last couple of years.

                 Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous.
                 As an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in
                 cash, go to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never
                 attribute the online activity to something revealing
                 (accessing personal email accounts, tweeting, entering
                 personal information to the laptop, etc..), and begin
                 hacking government email accounts then never use the laptop
                 again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of my
                 appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible security
                 cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

                 Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer
                 to these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities
                 tied to specific computer-related activities because of the
                 difficulty in identifying individuals.

                 I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be
                 blown, would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But
                 what if a common participant in \"Anonymous\" activities, was
                 working for a State? Anonymous has denounced state
                 governments before, if that State agent organizes an attack
                 amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs could a LEA
                 look for to distinguish?

                 On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                   In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming
                   in a bit)

                   1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
                   actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they
                   can't, but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows
                   the first real case where they could do some minor
                   damage--to individual people, not not to an organization
                   or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
                   threat. 

                   2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
                   actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous'
                   as a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and
                   could probably still be attributed if important enough to
                   those agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings
                   this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous
                   denies they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have
                   claimed an publicized attacks in the past, even before
                   they were carried out.  The attack on the Playstation
                   Network was more sophisticated than anonymous' usual work
                   (though potentially coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS
                   attacks that distracted Sony's IT security).  But whoever
                   did it, again, no real damage came of it.  Congress is
                   holding hearings over data security, but this is no
                   different than the OC groups stealing your credit card
                   information.  LE will go after them, have some success,
                   but the threat is not that large. 
                   On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                     I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity
                     to have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our
                     readers no nothing, or almost nothing about what this
                     group is and the threat it poses. Reviewing their list
                     of attacks
                     (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                     most of the cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a
                     Robin Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when
                     it comes to their interactions with the cartels is the
                     dubious role they play: at the same time they can be
                     fighting crime by revealing cartel members/supporters,
                     but they can also put lives in risk.

                     However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed
                     by Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on
                     Earth, can conduct a cyber attack under \"Anonymous\" is
                     worrisome.
                     (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                     If I run an organization, if I am responsible for
                     government websites, or if I am just a internet user, I
                     would like to know more about these guys. Who they are?
                     What are they interested in? How they operate? Who they
                     have targeted so far? How can I defend myself from them?
                     In what countries are they active? Should I worry about
                     them at all? Can I use them to achieve any particular
                     goal?

                     On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                       nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                       everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                       doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                       caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing
                       on journalists or taxi drivers they show little
                       understanding of the situation.  This has long term
                       implications in not just Mexico.  They don't consider
                       the consequences of their actions and they act without
                       understanding the environment.  It was the same when
                       they released information on the Sony Playstation
                       network to protest Sony.  They hurt innocent people to
                       prove a point. 

                       On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                         discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is
                         on what type of threat Anonymous can pose to
                         cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens
                         revealing personal information on cartels as well as
                         states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find
                         any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
                         individual being kidnapped. According to their
                         facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous
                         Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
                         posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
                         Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

                         Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                         distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                         government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via
                         the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
                         criminal cartels, including a video depicting a
                         masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
                         October 10? With the most recent video release,
                         Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal
                         cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
                         identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                         journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The
                         hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow
                         kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In the
                         Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                         mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                         reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
                         member are not met. The potential of conflict
                         between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
                         presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of
                         cartels lashing out at online bloggers, but I
                         haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with
                         any headaches from hackers before. 

                         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct
                         physical security threat to Mexican cartels.
                              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                         exploit online media
                              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in
                         Mexico to lash out at cartels

                         While not certain, there is a potential for
                         Anonymous to pose a threat
                              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to
                         possess identifiable information on cartel members
                              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous
                         could acquire on cartels
                              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                         communications, identifiable information on cartels
                         members have to be considered in the realm of
                         possibilities for
                                     Anonymous
                                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's
                         ability to reveal illicit online activity (child
                         pornography rings)

                         Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in
                         the ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in
                         Mexico. As a result, their understanding of cartel
                         activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with
                         confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but
                         this may blind them to any possible retribution.
                         They may not even know the impact of any online
                         assault of cartels.
                              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                         journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                         understand some of these individuals are forced to
                         collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                         often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                         halcones. Revealing the identity of these
                         individuals will not have a significant impact on
                         cartel                   operations. Politicans have
                         been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
                         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to
                         be any consequences from this.
                              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                         extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                         operations.
                                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                                 o    Cartels have reached out to the
                         computer science community before, coercing computer
                         science majors into working for them.
                                 o    This provides the cartels with the
                         possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                          

                         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like
                           the idea but there are several issues to address
                           and fix here.

                           These are the bullets of my main analytical
                           concern with the discussion:

                                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                           that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                                o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a
                           difference between stealing bank records from
                           government computers and overloading
                           www.loszetas.com main page.
                                o     There's no thought out process of what
                           sort of information could anon have on the
                           cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
                           accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
                           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's
                           dirty cops, politicians and businessmen who need
                           to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
                           Think about why the bloggers and media were killed
                           in previous instances. Was it because they
                           revealed operational details, because they acted
                           as informants, because they exposed links with
                           officials or because they somehow sullied the
                           cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                           information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                                o     Once you identify this info - think
                           about if anon can realistically access it and
                           disseminate it so it causes a measure of damage.
                           Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except
                           for the technical ability by a very small number
                           of its members to infiltrate certain networks and
                           databases and steal information. Now what kind of
                           information would a cartel keep on a network that
                           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
                           Where else could information be found? Government
                           databases? Once we know what kind of information
                           is accessible, we can also know more about the
                           consequences of dissemination.
                                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                           Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not,
                           there risks to be a lot of killings done by people
                           who may not understand the difference between an
                           anon hacker and a blogger.

                           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                             -------- Original Message --------

                              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs     
                                       Cartels                                
                                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500        
                                 From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>     
                             Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>               
                                   To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>               

                             you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                             going to need a lot more work

                             You need to lay out:

                             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                             trigger section is unclear
                             b) what our assessment of the online cartel
                             presence is, and therefore their vulnerabilities
                             and capabilities
                             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                             security anything
                             d) how far the cartels would be willing to
                             travel to kill anyone who breaches their systems
                             or exposes their connections

                             I also just want to point out that we have
                             reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the
                             very least has some significant levels of
                             sophistication in their online presence, to
                             include the use of cyber currencies and
                             significant IT capacity. There is no reason to
                             assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
                             business online, in a protected fashion.

                             Karen Hooper
                             Latin America Analyst
                             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                             c: 512.750.7234
                             STRATFOR
                             www.stratfor.com
                             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
","2011-10-25 17:35:41",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1037771_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1039924,"Re: [TACTICAL] Thought--Re: wikileaks cablegate -	disappearing	cables
","Agree

I've asked an old crony @ State if they still view the released material
as classified out of curiosity sake.


Nate Hughes wrote:
> also, as long as Google is readily making cached pages available, I
> think we're probably good.
>
> On 12/2/2010 2:03 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
>   
>> Agree
>>
>> I've asked Steve Feldhouse, our internal counsel for his advice and
>> guidance.
>>
>> If the FBI raids the place, I'm headed for the back door.
>>
>> Kevin Stech wrote:
>>     
>>> That’s reasonable
>>>
>>> *From:* Nate Hughes [mailto:hughes@stratfor.com]
>>> *Sent:* Thursday, December 02, 2010 12:56
>>> *To:* Tactical
>>> *Cc:* Kevin Stech; 'Sean Noonan'
>>> *Subject:* Re: [TACTICAL] Thought--Re: wikileaks cablegate -
>>> disappearing cables
>>>
>>> look, technically, if it's classified, it's classified. Inappropriate
>>> handling of it continues to be a legal issue. This is why in their
>>> letters to wikileaks, the USG can insist not only that he not publish
>>> it, but that he somehow return all property (this shit was all clearly
>>> written before the digital age).
>>>
>>> But it's also absurd. And it is important for Kevin to be doing what
>>> he's doing, in the event that something that is important does leak
>>> out and is retracted. We need to be able to know what that was.
>>>
>>> Get a password on it, send a note to Fred, Stick and Rodger and carry
>>> on until instructed otherwise.
>>>
>>> On 12/2/2010 1:51 PM, Kevin Stech wrote:
>>>
>>> If there are real legal concerns I can throw a password on it
>>>
>>> *From:* Sean Noonan [mailto:sean.noonan@stratfor.com]
>>> *Sent:* Thursday, December 02, 2010 12:46
>>> *To:* Kevin Stech; Tactical
>>> *Subject:* Thought--Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearing cables
>>>
>>> Is the research website that hosts a copy of these cables public?
>>> Could we get in trouble for storing classified information?
>>>
>>> I don't mean to be nitpicky, and you guys may have already addressed
>>> this, but I wanted to double check just in case.
>>>
>>> It seems like no one will be charged with that--and sooo many other
>>> people are hosting it---but that doesn't make it legal either.
>>>
>>> On 12/2/10 12:37 PM, Kevin Stech wrote:
>>>
>>> Was it this one?
>>>  
>>> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/05TELA
>>> VIV1580.html
>>>  
>>>  
>>>
>>>     -----Original Message-----
>>>
>>>     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com <mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com>
>>>
>>> [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On
>>>
>>>     Behalf Of Fred Burton
>>>
>>>     Sent: Thursday, December 02, 2010 12:33
>>>
>>>     To: Analyst List
>>>
>>>     Subject: Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearing cables
>>>
>>>      
>>>
>>>      
>>>
>>>       New response from Wiki server on a Mossad cable/briefing I pulled up
>>>
>>>       on Day one..
>>>
>>>      
>>>
>>>      
>>>
>>>      
>>>
>>>       not found, overloaded or other issues ...
>>>
>>>      
>>>
>>>     We are sorry but we cannot answer your request at the moment.
>>>
>>>      
>>>
>>>     This may be any kind of error.
>>>
>>>      
>>>
>>>      
>>>
>>>      
>>>
>>>     Reva Bhalla wrote:
>>>
>>>         ive only gone through a couple of them,b ut these dont even seem that
>>>
>>>         sensitive to warrant a disappearing act On Dec 2, 2010, at 11:59 AM,
>>>
>>>         Karen Hooper wrote:
>>>
>>>          
>>>
>>>             Good eye, Kevin. Also, for each of them that i pulled up, Google has
>>>
>>>             a cached copy available to load.
>>>
>>>              
>>>
>>>              
>>>
>>>              
>>>
>>>             On 12/2/10 12:56 PM, Kevin Stech wrote:
>>>
>>>                 By continuously mirroring the Cablegate website, it lets me do
>>>
>>>                 certain things like monitor the timestamps of the cables very
>>>
>>>                 closely. One anomaly this has turned up is a number of disappearing
>>>
>>>                 cables. I haven't tested each one yet, but I believe the following
>>>
>>>                 cables to have been removed from the Cablegate website. Check for
>>>
>>>                 yourself.
>>>
>>>                  
>>>
>>>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10ROME173.html
>>>
>>>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10STATE17263.html
>>>
>>>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10BAKU134.html
>>>
>>>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/10LONDON131.html
>>>
>>>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/10/08RPODUBAI49.html
>>>
>>>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/08/08MUSCAT565.html
>>>
>>>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/12/08STATE134490.html
>>>
>>>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/09ASHGABAT757.html
>>>
>>>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/08/09KUWAIT760.html
>>>
>>>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/04/09RPODUBAI177.html
>>>
>>>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09ANKARA1594.html
>>>
>>>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09BAGHDAD2992.html
>>>
>>>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/01/09RIYADH181.html
>>>
>>>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/09BAGHDAD3195.html
>>>
>>>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/09DOHA728.html
>>>
>>>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2006/04/06ABUDHABI1401.html
>>>
>>>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/05TELAVIV1580.html
>>>
>>>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/07STATE152317.html
>>>
>>>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/07BAGHDAD3895.html
>>>
>>>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/01/07TELAVIV64.html
>>>
>>>                  
>>>
>>>                 You can view the backups of the original cables here.
>>>
>>>                  
>>>
>>>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/
>>>
>>>                 10ROME173.html
>>>
>>>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/
>>>
>>>                 10STATE17263.html
>>>
>>>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/
>>>
>>>                 10BAKU134.html
>>>
>>>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/
>>>
>>>                 10LONDON131.html
>>>
>>>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/10/
>>>
>>>                 08RPODUBAI49.html
>>>
>>>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/08/
>>>
>>>                 08MUSCAT565.html
>>>
>>>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/12/
>>>
>>>                 08STATE134490.html
>>>
>>>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/
>>>
>>>                 09ASHGABAT757.html
>>>
>>>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/08/
>>>
>>>                 09KUWAIT760.html
>>>
>>>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/04/
>>>
>>>                 09RPODUBAI177.html
>>>
>>>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/
>>>
>>>                 09ANKARA1594.html
>>>
>>>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/
>>>
>>>                 09BAGHDAD2992.html
>>>
>>>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/01/
>>>
>>>                 09RIYADH181.html
>>>
>>>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/
>>>
>>>                 09BAGHDAD3195.html
>>>
>>>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/
>>>
>>>                 09DOHA728.html
>>>
>>>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2006/04/
>>>
>>>                 06ABUDHABI1401.html
>>>
>>>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/
>>>
>>>                 05TELAVIV1580.html
>>>
>>>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/
>>>
>>>                 07STATE152317.html
>>>
>>>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/
>>>
>>>                 07BAGHDAD3895.html
>>>
>>>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/01/
>>>
>>>                 07TELAVIV64.html
>>>
>>>                  
>>>
>>>                 Kevin Stech
>>>
>>>                 Research Director | STRATFOR
>>>
>>>                 kevin.stech@stratfor.com <mailto:kevin.stech@stratfor.com> <mailto:kevin.stech@stratfor.com>
>>>
>>>                 +1 (512) 744-4086
>>>
>>>                  
>>>
>>>          
>>>
>>> -- 
>>>
>>>
>>> Sean Noonan
>>>
>>> Tactical Analyst
>>>
>>> Office: +1 512-279-9479
>>>
>>> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
>>>
>>> Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>>>
>>> www.stratfor.com <http://www.stratfor.com>
>>>
>>>       
","2010-12-02 20:17:17",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1039924_re-tactical-thought-re-wikileaks-cablegate-disappearing.html","burton@stratfor.com","","hughes@stratfor.com,kevin.stech@stratfor.com,tactical@stratfor.com",""
1044308,"Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearing cables
","The Foggy-Bottom Bow-Ties have their panties in a knot over a specific
Iraq cable outed yesterday.  Not sure which one.  May be yanked. 

Reva Bhalla wrote:
> ive only gone through a couple of them,b ut these dont even seem that
> sensitive to warrant a disappearing act
> On Dec 2, 2010, at 11:59 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:
>
>> Good eye, Kevin. Also, for each of them that i pulled up, Google has
>> a cached copy available to load. 
>>
>>
>>
>> On 12/2/10 12:56 PM, Kevin Stech wrote:
>>> By continuously mirroring the Cablegate website, it lets me do
>>> certain things like monitor the timestamps of the cables very
>>> closely. One anomaly this has turned up is a number of disappearing
>>> cables. I haven’t tested each one yet, but I believe the following
>>> cables to have been removed from the Cablegate website. Check for
>>> yourself.
>>>  
>>> http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10ROME173.html
>>> http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10STATE17263.html
>>> http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10BAKU134.html
>>> http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/10LONDON131.html
>>> http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/10/08RPODUBAI49.html
>>> http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/08/08MUSCAT565.html
>>> http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/12/08STATE134490.html
>>> http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/09ASHGABAT757.html
>>> http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/08/09KUWAIT760.html
>>> http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/04/09RPODUBAI177.html
>>> http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09ANKARA1594.html
>>> http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09BAGHDAD2992.html
>>> http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/01/09RIYADH181.html
>>> http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/09BAGHDAD3195.html
>>> http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/09DOHA728.html
>>> http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2006/04/06ABUDHABI1401.html
>>> http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/05TELAVIV1580.html
>>> http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/07STATE152317.html
>>> http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/07BAGHDAD3895.html
>>> http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/01/07TELAVIV64.html
>>>  
>>> You can view the backups of the original cables here.
>>>  
>>> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10ROME173.html
>>> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10STATE17263.html
>>> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10BAKU134.html
>>> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/10LONDON131.html
>>> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/10/08RPODUBAI49.html
>>> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/08/08MUSCAT565.html
>>> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/12/08STATE134490.html
>>> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/09ASHGABAT757.html
>>> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/08/09KUWAIT760.html
>>> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/04/09RPODUBAI177.html
>>> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09ANKARA1594.html
>>> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09BAGHDAD2992.html
>>> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/01/09RIYADH181.html
>>> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/09BAGHDAD3195.html
>>> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/09DOHA728.html
>>> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2006/04/06ABUDHABI1401.html
>>> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/05TELAVIV1580.html
>>> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/07STATE152317.html
>>> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/07BAGHDAD3895.html
>>> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/01/07TELAVIV64.html
>>>  
>>> Kevin Stech
>>> Research Director | STRATFOR
>>> kevin.stech@stratfor.com <mailto:kevin.stech@stratfor.com>
>>> +1 (512) 744-4086
>>>  
>
","2010-12-02 19:26:35",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1044308_re-wikileaks-cablegate-disappearing-cables-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1044330,"RE: [TACTICAL] Thought--Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearing	cables
","   That's reasonable

    

   From: Nate Hughes [mailto:hughes@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, December 02, 2010 12:56
   To: Tactical
   Cc: Kevin Stech; 'Sean Noonan'
   Subject: Re: [TACTICAL] Thought--Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearing
   cables

    

   look, technically, if it's classified, it's classified. Inappropriate
   handling of it continues to be a legal issue. This is why in their letters
   to wikileaks, the USG can insist not only that he not publish it, but that
   he somehow return all property (this shit was all clearly written before
   the digital age).

   But it's also absurd. And it is important for Kevin to be doing what he's
   doing, in the event that something that is important does leak out and is
   retracted. We need to be able to know what that was.

   Get a password on it, send a note to Fred, Stick and Rodger and carry on
   until instructed otherwise.

   On 12/2/2010 1:51 PM, Kevin Stech wrote:

   If there are real legal concerns I can throw a password on it

    

   From: Sean Noonan [mailto:sean.noonan@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, December 02, 2010 12:46
   To: Kevin Stech; Tactical
   Subject: Thought--Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearing cables

    

   Is the research website that hosts a copy of these cables public?  Could
   we get in trouble for storing classified information?

   I don't mean to be nitpicky, and you guys may have already addressed this,
   but I wanted to double check just in case. 

   It seems like no one will be charged with that--and sooo many other people
   are hosting it---but that doesn't make it legal either. 

   On 12/2/10 12:37 PM, Kevin Stech wrote:

 Was it this one?

  

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/05TELA

 VIV1580.html

  

  

 -----Original Message-----

 From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com

 [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On

 Behalf Of Fred Burton

 Sent: Thursday, December 02, 2010 12:33

 To: Analyst List

 Subject: Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearing cables

  

  

   New response from Wiki server on a Mossad cable/briefing I pulled up

   on Day one..

  

  

  

   not found, overloaded or other issues ...

  

 We are sorry but we cannot answer your request at the moment.

  

 This may be any kind of error.

  

  

  

 Reva Bhalla wrote:

 ive only gone through a couple of them,b ut these dont even seem that

 sensitive to warrant a disappearing act On Dec 2, 2010, at 11:59 AM,

 Karen Hooper wrote:

  

 Good eye, Kevin. Also, for each of them that i pulled up, Google has

 a cached copy available to load.

  

  

  

 On 12/2/10 12:56 PM, Kevin Stech wrote:

 By continuously mirroring the Cablegate website, it lets me do

 certain things like monitor the timestamps of the cables very

 closely. One anomaly this has turned up is a number of disappearing

 cables. I haven't tested each one yet, but I believe the following

 cables to have been removed from the Cablegate website. Check for

 yourself.

  

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10ROME173.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10STATE17263.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10BAKU134.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/10LONDON131.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/10/08RPODUBAI49.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/08/08MUSCAT565.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/12/08STATE134490.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/09ASHGABAT757.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/08/09KUWAIT760.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/04/09RPODUBAI177.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09ANKARA1594.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09BAGHDAD2992.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/01/09RIYADH181.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/09BAGHDAD3195.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/09DOHA728.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2006/04/06ABUDHABI1401.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/05TELAVIV1580.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/07STATE152317.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/07BAGHDAD3895.html

 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/01/07TELAVIV64.html

  

 You can view the backups of the original cables here.

  

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/

 10ROME173.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/

 10STATE17263.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/

 10BAKU134.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/

 10LONDON131.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/10/

 08RPODUBAI49.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/08/

 08MUSCAT565.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/12/

 08STATE134490.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/

 09ASHGABAT757.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/08/

 09KUWAIT760.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/04/

 09RPODUBAI177.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/

 09ANKARA1594.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/

 09BAGHDAD2992.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/01/

 09RIYADH181.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/

 09BAGHDAD3195.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/

 09DOHA728.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2006/04/

 06ABUDHABI1401.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/

 05TELAVIV1580.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/

 07STATE152317.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/

 07BAGHDAD3895.html

 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/01/

 07TELAVIV64.html

  

 Kevin Stech

 Research Director | STRATFOR

 kevin.stech@stratfor.com <mailto:kevin.stech@stratfor.com>

 +1 (512) 744-4086

  

  

    

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-02 19:56:53",1,"2012-02-29 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1044330_re-tactical-thought-re-wikileaks-cablegate-disappearing.html","","","hughes@stratfor.com,sean.noonan@stratfor.com,tactical@stratfor.com",""
1044386,"[Fwd: Re: [TACTICAL] Thought--Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearingcables]
","FYI

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: 	Re: [TACTICAL] Thought--Re: wikileaks cablegate -
disappearingcables
Date: 	Thu, 2 Dec 2010 19:44:06 +0000
From: 	Stephen M. Feldhaus <sf@feldhauslaw.com>
Reply-To: 	sf@feldhauslaw.com
To: 	Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>, sean.noonan@stratfor.com
CC: 	Mr. George Friedman <gfriedman@stratfor.com>
References:
<09c801cb924a$41645240$c42cf6c0$@stratfor.com><4CF7DE6C.5050603@stratfor.com><91BAC3A3-6793-4E91-BA61-00ABB532EB67@stratfor.com><4CF7E66A.6010908@stratfor.com><0a9a01cb9250$00d68990$02839cb0$@stratfor.com><4CF7E972.8000702@stratfor.com><0ab301cb9251$e7be8460$b73b8d20$@stratfor.com><4CF7EB34.7030101@stratfor.com>




Just got out of a meeting and saw this. We definitely should not be making these available to the public, or to our subscribers. I am not worried about our maintaining a database of the documents for our own use. 

Best,

Steve
-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
Date: Thu, 2 Dec 2010 13:53:40 
To: Tactical<tactical@stratfor.com>
Cc: 'Sean Noonan'<sean.noonan@stratfor.com>; Feldhaus, Stephen<sf@feldhauslaw.com>
Subject: Re: [TACTICAL] Thought--Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearing
	cables

Steve - Thoughts?  Thanks

Kevin Stech wrote:
>
> If there are real legal concerns I can throw a password on it
>
>  
>
> *From:* Sean Noonan [mailto:sean.noonan@stratfor.com]
> *Sent:* Thursday, December 02, 2010 12:46
> *To:* Kevin Stech; Tactical
> *Subject:* Thought--Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearing cables
>
>  
>
> Is the research website that hosts a copy of these cables public? 
> Could we get in trouble for storing classified information?
>
> I don't mean to be nitpicky, and you guys may have already addressed
> this, but I wanted to double check just in case. 
>
> It seems like no one will be charged with that--and sooo many other
> people are hosting it---but that doesn't make it legal either. 
>
> On 12/2/10 12:37 PM, Kevin Stech wrote:
>
> Was it this one?
>  
> https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/05TELA
> VIV1580.html
>  
>  
>
>     -----Original Message-----
>
>     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com <mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com>
>
> [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On
>
>     Behalf Of Fred Burton
>
>     Sent: Thursday, December 02, 2010 12:33
>
>     To: Analyst List
>
>     Subject: Re: wikileaks cablegate - disappearing cables
>
>      
>
>      
>
>       New response from Wiki server on a Mossad cable/briefing I pulled up
>
>       on Day one..
>
>      
>
>      
>
>      
>
>       not found, overloaded or other issues ...
>
>      
>
>     We are sorry but we cannot answer your request at the moment.
>
>      
>
>     This may be any kind of error.
>
>      
>
>      
>
>      
>
>     Reva Bhalla wrote:
>
>         ive only gone through a couple of them,b ut these dont even seem that
>
>         sensitive to warrant a disappearing act On Dec 2, 2010, at 11:59 AM,
>
>         Karen Hooper wrote:
>
>          
>
>             Good eye, Kevin. Also, for each of them that i pulled up, Google has
>
>             a cached copy available to load.
>
>              
>
>              
>
>              
>
>             On 12/2/10 12:56 PM, Kevin Stech wrote:
>
>                 By continuously mirroring the Cablegate website, it lets me do
>
>                 certain things like monitor the timestamps of the cables very
>
>                 closely. One anomaly this has turned up is a number of disappearing
>
>                 cables. I haven't tested each one yet, but I believe the following
>
>                 cables to have been removed from the Cablegate website. Check for
>
>                 yourself.
>
>                  
>
>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10ROME173.html
>
>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10STATE17263.html
>
>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10BAKU134.html
>
>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/10LONDON131.html
>
>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/10/08RPODUBAI49.html
>
>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/08/08MUSCAT565.html
>
>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/12/08STATE134490.html
>
>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/09ASHGABAT757.html
>
>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/08/09KUWAIT760.html
>
>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/04/09RPODUBAI177.html
>
>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09ANKARA1594.html
>
>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/09BAGHDAD2992.html
>
>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/01/09RIYADH181.html
>
>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/09BAGHDAD3195.html
>
>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/09DOHA728.html
>
>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2006/04/06ABUDHABI1401.html
>
>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/05TELAVIV1580.html
>
>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/07STATE152317.html
>
>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/07BAGHDAD3895.html
>
>                 http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/01/07TELAVIV64.html
>
>                  
>
>                 You can view the backups of the original cables here.
>
>                  
>
>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/
>
>                 10ROME173.html
>
>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/
>
>                 10STATE17263.html
>
>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/
>
>                 10BAKU134.html
>
>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/
>
>                 10LONDON131.html
>
>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/10/
>
>                 08RPODUBAI49.html
>
>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/08/
>
>                 08MUSCAT565.html
>
>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/12/
>
>                 08STATE134490.html
>
>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/
>
>                 09ASHGABAT757.html
>
>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/08/
>
>                 09KUWAIT760.html
>
>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/04/
>
>                 09RPODUBAI177.html
>
>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/
>
>                 09ANKARA1594.html
>
>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/11/
>
>                 09BAGHDAD2992.html
>
>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/01/
>
>                 09RIYADH181.html
>
>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/
>
>                 09BAGHDAD3195.html
>
>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/12/
>
>                 09DOHA728.html
>
>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2006/04/
>
>                 06ABUDHABI1401.html
>
>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2005/03/
>
>                 05TELAVIV1580.html
>
>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/
>
>                 07STATE152317.html
>
>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/11/
>
>                 07BAGHDAD3895.html
>
>                 https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2007/01/
>
>                 07TELAVIV64.html
>
>                  
>
>                 Kevin Stech
>
>                 Research Director | STRATFOR
>
>                 kevin.stech@stratfor.com <mailto:kevin.stech@stratfor.com> <mailto:kevin.stech@stratfor.com>
>
>                 +1 (512) 744-4086
>
>                  
>
>          
>
>  
>
> -- 
>
> Sean Noonan
>
> Tactical Analyst
>
> Office: +1 512-279-9479
>
> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
>
> Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>
> www.stratfor.com <http://www.stratfor.com>
>
","2010-12-02 22:49:44",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1044386_-fwd-re-tactical-thought-re-wikileaks-cablegate.html","burton@stratfor.com","","rbaker@stratfor.com,kevin.stech@stratfor.com",""
1050076,"DISCUSSION - US focus on Georgia and Ukraine ... 
","   INSIGHT:
    
   This is not Vershbow's only move. He will be tossing himself back and
   forth for the next few months between Georgia and Ukraine. He will be in
   Georgia October 19-20 and then in Ukraine in early November and Georgia in
   late November and then back again to both in December.
    
   In Georgia, Vershbow will be coordinating an expansion of US training of
   Georgian troops. It will most likely not just be defensive anymore.
    
   In Ukraine, yes, there was the BMD announcement that Kiev did not even
   know about. But the bigger concern is that under certain Western nudging,
   Ukraine will resume weapon transfers to Georgia.
    
   Vershbow's primary focus will now be on Georgia and Ukraine, but we all
   know that there is an expiration date on the Ukraine part of this
   equation.
    
   LG discussion....
    
   What the source means by the expiration date is that Vershbow can actually
   get some cool things done in Ukraine via Yushchenko. The rest of the
   political sphere - Timo, Yanu, parliament, cabinet, etc-all won't work
   with Vershbow. But Yushchenko can.
    
   Though Yushchenko has 2% approval rating, his party is split into half a
   dozen parts and he LITERALLY has no friends.... He does still control 3
   key sectors in Ukraine as President: SBU, military industrial and
   military. Yushchenko can make decisions in those sectors without having to
   consult with anyone else for the most part.
    
   So Vershbow and Yushchenko could  in theory pull off some incredible shit
   in Ukraine and Georgia...... but there is a time limit since Yushchenko
   will be out of office in 3 months.....
    
   The clock is ticking.  
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-10-09 17:52:47",1,"2012-03-02 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1050076_discussion-us-focus-on-georgia-and-ukraine-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1050427,"Re: Assange is off the hook...
","   It is possible to revoke citizenship on the grounds of being a dickhead
   except in Australia, where all of Queensland and a good part of South
   Australia, along with all of Sydney Uni would lose their passports.

   On 12/05/10 22:42 , Chris Farnham wrote:

     Is it possible to revoke some one's citizenship on the grounds of them
     being a total dickhead? 
     I don't care about the other leaks but the ones he has made that
     potentially damage Australian interests upset me. 
     If I thought I could switch this dickhead off without getting done I
     don't think I'd have too much of a problem.
     BTW, close family friend in Sweden who knows the girl that is pressing
     charges tells me that there is absolutely nothing behind it other than
     prosecutors that are looking to make a name for themselves. My friend
     speaks rather disparagingly about the girl who is claiming molestation.
     I also think the whole rape thing is incorrect for if I remember
     correctly rape was never the charge. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:23:03 PM
     Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

     What a douche.

     And I just want to be clear here... I have no problem with the leaks. I
     think they're great. And I think it may be good on some level to have
     stuff like this come out once in a while. What I can't stand is A) his
     ego trip and B) his clear anti-Americanism. Take the time to read the
     intro to Cablegate when you get the chance. This guy hates America more
     than OBL.

     What I love, however, is how nobody in the U.S. is mad about the cables.
     Hell, I have a better opinion of State Department diplomats now than I
     did before the cables. They actually said a few smart things here and
     there. I actually gave them a tip of my hat.

     I want to see him try to take on the Russians. He'd be going bald in an
     Iceland hospital within days.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:11:39 PM
     Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

     should we change our Stratfor motto now?
     Predictive, insightful intelligence...in a post-Cablegate world.
     On Dec 5, 2010, at 10:05 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

       This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: \"I believe geopolitics
      will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases.\"

       Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer
       saying how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files --
       including names of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has \"been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information age.\"

       Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
       extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
       password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly
       endangering U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would
       it not then be possible to prosecute him for espionage? 

       -- 
       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
       Marko Papic
       Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
       STRATFOR
       700 Lavaca Street - 900
       Austin, Texas
       78701 USA
       P: + 1-512-744-4094
       marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --
     Marko Papic

     STRATFOR Analyst
     C: + 1-512-905-3091
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --

     Chris Farnham
     Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
     China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
     Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334
","2010-12-06 05:53:55",1,"2012-02-28 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1050427_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html","gfriedman@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1051088,"FBI SAIC comment on WikiLeaks (internal use only pls) 
","
Hey Fred - Just got back into town to reply to your question. 

Looks pretty bad - then again, nobody knew better than us how those
State Department people write - so nobody should be surprised at some of it.
","2010-11-29 16:23:54",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1051088_fbi-saic-comment-on-wikileaks-internal-use-only-pls-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
1051844,"Re: Assange is off the hook...
","   And yeah, his theoretical argument -- one he bases everything off of -- is
   that if money is being spent to keep something secret, then it is evil.

   I don't think I've heard a more self-righteous, sweeping statement than
   that.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 11:47:05 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   Yeah but my point was that the common folk are not outraged except at
   Assange. He wanted people to be outraged at the government. Nobody is, in
   fact most people think the diplomats are doing their job. That's a change
   considering what low opinion most people have of diplomats.

   And as for my comment about wikileaks, I was being far more philosophical
   than the question of whether it is illegal or not. From time to time, you
   got to leak some stuff... it's just the way it is. It's good for the
   country. Doesn't feel nice, but it's good. Like jogging.

   But my overall point here is that Assange is just an anti-American prick
   who things he is going to leak some stuff that leaves the American people
   outraged. What an idiot. As Stewart said the other night, this is the
   country that sold weapons to Iran so that we can fund right-wing
   guerrillas in Central America. And this idiot thought we would be outraged
   by someone calling Merkel \"risk-averse\".

   He is a fucking idiot.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 11:42:17 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   Queensland= Aussie Texas.  Y'all have an attitude that Alabamans don't. 

   Last I saw Assange was charged with sexual assault, not rape.  That's
   different in the US, obviously, but no idea about Sweden. 

   And Marko, I beg to differ.  The leaks are wrong.  Are they seriously
   damaging? No, but that doesn't make it OK.  Serious laws were violated
   here, and the only reason they have some freedom of movement is because
   Wikileaks (presumably) is not state-sponsored and claim to be some sort of
   journalism.  But that is BS, these documents were stolen and published
   illegally.  We can go into the whole argument of overclassification- and
   be right to say that most of this stuff should no longer be classified. 
   That does not change the fact that the documents were classified.  Some
   sort of civil disobedience is not going to change the USG's culture of
   secrecy.  That idea by Assange is just ludicrous.  This is just an
   NGO-version of espionage and everyone involved should be arrested and
   tried accordingly (and disrupted if we can't get them to court).

   What Matt said about a large number of the American right being pretty
   pissed off about these is also true.  Assange has been called a terrorist
   many times, I think Palin wanted to hunt him down.   

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Meredith Friedman\" <mfriedman@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:21:43 AM
   Subject: RE: Assange is off the hook...

   The Landsdowne Hotel and the pub crawls...but I totally agree with your
   view on Queensland!!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Chris Farnham
   Sent: Sunday, December 05, 2010 11:17 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...
   Oh the teaching is still first rate and turned me in to the intellectual
   Adonis that I am. Was just that the majority of the company there sucked.
   Nestled between Glebe and Newtown since their gentrification hasn't
   helped, I don't think. Thank god for the Landsdowne Hotel!!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Meredith Friedman\" <mfriedman@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 1:09:42 PM
   Subject: RE: Assange is off the hook...

   I am a proud alumnus of Sydney Uni thank you very much. But it was much
   better back then....

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Chris Farnham
   Sent: Sunday, December 05, 2010 11:07 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...
   If you think you're going to get any argument out of me on Usyd you're
   going to be disappointed. 
   The place was full of left wing socialist wankers or college boy, Aviator
   wearing, popped collar rich kids. 
   Going to hazard a guess that Assange may also have studied there as well.
   Queensland is Australia's version of Alabama, only with better beaches. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"George Friedman\" <gfriedman@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:53:55 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   It is possible to revoke citizenship on the grounds of being a dickhead
   except in Australia, where all of Queensland and a good part of South
   Australia, along with all of Sydney Uni would lose their passports.

   On 12/05/10 22:42 , Chris Farnham wrote:

     Is it possible to revoke some one's citizenship on the grounds of them
     being a total dickhead? 
     I don't care about the other leaks but the ones he has made that
     potentially damage Australian interests upset me. 
     If I thought I could switch this dickhead off without getting done I
     don't think I'd have too much of a problem.
     BTW, close family friend in Sweden who knows the girl that is pressing
     charges tells me that there is absolutely nothing behind it other than
     prosecutors that are looking to make a name for themselves. My friend
     speaks rather disparagingly about the girl who is claiming molestation.
     I also think the whole rape thing is incorrect for if I remember
     correctly rape was never the charge. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:23:03 PM
     Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

     What a douche.

     And I just want to be clear here... I have no problem with the leaks. I
     think they're great. And I think it may be good on some level to have
     stuff like this come out once in a while. What I can't stand is A) his
     ego trip and B) his clear anti-Americanism. Take the time to read the
     intro to Cablegate when you get the chance. This guy hates America more
     than OBL.

     What I love, however, is how nobody in the U.S. is mad about the cables.
     Hell, I have a better opinion of State Department diplomats now than I
     did before the cables. They actually said a few smart things here and
     there. I actually gave them a tip of my hat.

     I want to see him try to take on the Russians. He'd be going bald in an
     Iceland hospital within days.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:11:39 PM
     Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

     should we change our Stratfor motto now?
     Predictive, insightful intelligence...in a post-Cablegate world.
     On Dec 5, 2010, at 10:05 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

       This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: a**I believe
      geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases.a**

       Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer
       saying how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files --
       including names of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has a**been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information
      age.a**

       Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
       extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
       password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly
       endangering U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would
       it not then be possible to prosecute him for espionage? 

       -- 
       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
       Marko Papic
       Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
       STRATFOR
       700 Lavaca Street - 900
       Austin, Texas
       78701 USA
       P: + 1-512-744-4094
       marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --
     Marko Papic

     STRATFOR Analyst
     C: + 1-512-905-3091
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --

     Chris Farnham
     Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
     China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
     Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   Office: +1 512-279-9479
   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-12-06 06:49:07",1,"2012-02-29 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1051844_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1055466,"Re: Assange is off the hook...
","   you are right, it's a \"sex by surprise charge\"!

   Sort of like...

   nevermind

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Chris Farnham\" <chris.farnham@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 11:01:04 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   If it really matters I can look in to it, but from what I am hearing that
   is not the case. 
   That's not to say that my friend is foolproof either. She knows nothing of
   law or politics, she just knows the girl in question and follows the
   news. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:57:59 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   It is about rape. They asked him to use a condom, but he apparently likes
   unprotected sex.

   Sweden has very low threshold for what constitutes rape by the way,
   according to a lawyer friend.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Chris Farnham\" <chris.farnham@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:42:16 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   Is it possible to revoke some one's citizenship on the grounds of them
   being a total dickhead? 
   I don't care about the other leaks but the ones he has made that
   potentially damage Australian interests upset me. 
   If I thought I could switch this dickhead off without getting done I don't
   think I'd have too much of a problem.
   BTW, close family friend in Sweden who knows the girl that is pressing
   charges tells me that there is absolutely nothing behind it other than
   prosecutors that are looking to make a name for themselves. My friend
   speaks rather disparagingly about the girl who is claiming molestation. I
   also think the whole rape thing is incorrect for if I remember correctly
   rape was never the charge. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:23:03 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   What a douche.

   And I just want to be clear here... I have no problem with the leaks. I
   think they're great. And I think it may be good on some level to have
   stuff like this come out once in a while. What I can't stand is A) his ego
   trip and B) his clear anti-Americanism. Take the time to read the intro to
   Cablegate when you get the chance. This guy hates America more than OBL.

   What I love, however, is how nobody in the U.S. is mad about the cables.
   Hell, I have a better opinion of State Department diplomats now than I did
   before the cables. They actually said a few smart things here and there. I
   actually gave them a tip of my hat.

   I want to see him try to take on the Russians. He'd be going bald in an
   Iceland hospital within days.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:11:39 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   should we change our Stratfor motto now?
   Predictive, insightful intelligence...in a post-Cablegate world.
   On Dec 5, 2010, at 10:05 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: a**I believe
      geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases.a**

     Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer saying
     how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files -- including
     names of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has a**been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information
      age.a**

     Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
     extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
     password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly
     endangering U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would it
     not then be possible to prosecute him for espionage? 

     -- 
     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
     Marko Papic
     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
     STRATFOR
     700 Lavaca Street - 900
     Austin, Texas
     78701 USA
     P: + 1-512-744-4094
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-12-06 06:05:28",1,"2012-02-29 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1055466_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1055857,"Re: [EastAsia] Fwd: G3* - NEW ZEALAND- NZ leader wins 2nd term,
 pledges fiscal discipline
","   thanks. misread it.  thought it meant to sell their minority stakes

   On 11/28/11 8:00 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     Selling from 74% to 51% is selling a minority stake of 23%

     On 11/28/11 7:50 AM, Anthony Sung wrote:

       I don't understand how minorities stakes can be 74%? are there rumors
       that China is planning to bid on these assets?

       also, is NZ in such a bad economic position?  18 billion deficit is
       bad but not horrid and was running a trade surplus for the first half
       of this year. they may not be awesome like OZ but they sure as hell
       ain't EU

       On 11/28/11 1:04 AM, Lena Bell wrote:

         biggest thing to note from election is that Key can now proceed with
         the planned asset sales (they're expected to raise between $NZ5
         billion to $NZ7 billion).
         49 percent of Genesis Energy is expected to be the first on the
         block, but Key has also promised to sell minority stakes in power
         companies in Meridian Energy, Mighty River Power and coal producer
         Solid Energy. The Nationals also campaigned on cutting the govt's 74
         percent stake in Air New Zealand to 51 percent.
         Why does Stratfor potentially care? Because there are a lot of
         energy assets on offer here. Let's watch and see if/how China
         responds.
         NZ is in a very different economic position to Oz - last year they
         posted a record deficit of $NZ18.4 billion - so there are definite
         opportunities for willing buyers.

         -------- Original Message --------

          Subject: G3* - NEW ZEALAND- NZ leader wins 2nd term, pledges fiscal 
                   discipline                                                 
             Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2011 08:50:39 -0600 (CST)                      
             From: Adelaide Schwartz <adelaide.schwartz@stratfor.com>         
         Reply-To: analysts@stratfor.com                                      
               To: alerts@stratfor.com                                        

         NZ leader wins 2nd term, pledges fiscal discipline
         By NICK PERRY | AP aEUR\" 1 hr 51 mins ago. Nov. 26, 2011
         http://news.yahoo.com/nz-leader-wins-2nd-term-pledges-fiscal-discipline-125705751.html
         WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) aEUR\" Prime Minister John Key
         convincingly won a second term as New Zealand's leader in elections
         Saturday that open the door for the sales of billions of dollars
         worth of government assets as part of a plan to reduce the country's
         debt.
         Key's center-right National Party has promised to get the nation's
         books in order and begin paying down foreign debt within the next
         three years. That message has taken on a new resonance after the
         country's credit rating was downgraded this year and the situation
         in Europe has shown how debt can quickly become toxic.
         The National Party dominated the election, coming up just short of
         getting enough votes to govern alone. With most of the votes
         counted, the party was projected to win 60 of the 121 seats in
         Parliament, an increase of two. Key will look to some of the minor
         parties for support in forming a stable government.
         \"Tonight New Zealanders voted for a better future, and there will be
         a better future,\" Key said in his victory speech.
         The center-left Labour party, which had opposed asset sales, won
         just 27 percent of the vote, meaning it will lose about nine of its
         43 seats. Like National, it also promised to get the books in order
         aEUR\" but Labour planned to do it by introducing a capital gains tax
         and raising the age of retirement by two years, to 67.
         Phil Goff, Labour's leader, said the party was \"bloodied, but not
         defeated.\"
         \"It wasn't our time this time,\" he told supporters. The poor showing
         makes it likely Goff will soon step aside.
         Key plans to sell minority stakes in four government-owned energy
         companies and in Air New Zealand in order to raise an estimated 7
         billion New Zealand dollars ($5.2 billion).
         The National Party's win could also open the door for more mineral
         exploration and offshore oil drilling. Labour had proposed a
         moratorium on deep-sea drilling after a cargo ship ran aground last
         month near the North Island port of Tauranga, spilling about 400
         tons of fuel into the ocean and onto local beaches.
         Key's win will also likely continue the country's warming
         relationship with the United States. For a quarter-century, New
         Zealand's ban on nuclear warships caused a rift, particularly over
         defense. However, New Zealand's small troop presence in Afghanistan
         and a promise by the U.S. to send a contingent of Marines to New
         Zealand next year point to a thaw.
         The U.S. and New Zealand are also among nine Pacific countries
         negotiating a free trade deal in the region.
         The election was also marked by the unexpected return to Parliament
         of Winston Peters, the mercurial leader of the anti-immigration New
         Zealand First party, which has shored up support among older voters
         who approve of its generous policies for them.
         New Zealand First won about 7 percent of the vote, enough for eight
         seats, after getting shut out of the last election in 2008.
         The Green party, meanwhile, enjoyed its best showing ever, winning
         11 percent of the vote.
         But the election also spelled the near-demise of the conservative
         Act party, which won five seats in the last election but this time
         could manage just one. Act party leader Don Brash announced he would
         resign Sunday.
         National's campaign hinged on the personal popularity of Key, a
         former currency trader whose easygoing demeanor appeals to many. His
         image was placed on hundreds of National billboards.
         Key's common touch was reassuring to people when a powerful
         earthquake struck Christchurch last February, said Jennifer
         Lees-Marshment, a political studies lecturer at the University of
         Auckland. It also enabled him to share in their excitement in
         October when the country's national All Blacks team won the Rugby
         World Cup.
         Voters were also deciding whether to keep their electoral system, in
         which parties win parliamentary seats based on the proportion of
         votes they receive. Some wanted to return to a winner-takes-all
         format, although polls indicated most favored sticking with the
         current system.
         The final results of that measure won't be known for two weeks. In
         early results, however, about 54 percent of voters favored keeping
         the German-style proportional system.

 --
 Anthony Sung
 ADP
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4076 | F: +1 512 744 4105
 www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Anthony Sung
 ADP
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4076 | F: +1 512 744 4105
 www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-28 15:17:00",1,"2012-07-29 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1055857_re-eastasia-fwd-g3-new-zealand-nz-leader-wins-2nd-term.html","anthony.sung@stratfor.com","mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com","eastasia@stratfor.com",""
1056763,"Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested
","One other point is this.  Ferreting out his confederates is also key. 
Find out what other disgruntled rogues inside the tent or outside.  Pile
on.  Move him from country to country to face various charges for the
next 25 years.  But, seize everything he and his family own, to include
every person linked to Wiki. 

Marko Papic wrote:
> Nate makes a good point. The arrest is not necessarily the end of
> Julian Assange. He could become a martyr in jail, particularly a
> Swedish jail, which I imagine has better amenities than my house.
>
>
> On 12/7/10 7:38 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
>> Will take weeks for extradition, unless he waves the process. 
>>
>> DOJ (Holder) won't seek prosecution on their own, but look for the GOP
>> (Congress) to press for criminal prosecution.
>>
>> Be easy to indict. 
>>
>> I would pursue Conspiracy and Political Terrorism charges and declassify
>> the death of a source someone which I could link to Wiki. 
>>  
>>
>> Nate Hughes wrote:
>>     
>>> Other thought is that I kind of feel like a lot of people were coming
>>> around to recognizing his astonishing douchebaggery and he was by this
>>> point undermining himself and his organization. If he does get tied up
>>> in the legal system, does he come out screaming all the louder? And if
>>> he does somehow get imprisoned, does he have the potential in
>>> incarceration to actually become the sort of inspirational,
>>> martryr-like (forgive the euphamism) figure that he always imagined
>>> himself to be in the free world?
>>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>> *From: * Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
>>> *Date: *Tue, 7 Dec 2010 04:42:58 -0600 (CST)
>>> *To: *Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
>>> *ReplyTo: * Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
>>> *Subject: *Discussion- Assange Arrested
>>>
>>> We had the discussion below on Friday when it was first suggested that
>>> Assange would be arrested.  Here's a bit more:
>>>
>>> London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
>>> public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to
>>> appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused
>>> by two woman in Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed
>>> through Interpol red notices, like this case, so this is no doubt
>>> about trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release of government documents. 
>>> While it's possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term
>>> viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of cables in the
>>> short-term and governments will now be concerned about what the
>>> organization may release in revenge.
>>>
>>> see discussion below.  (revenge = that encrypted 'security' file)
>>>
>>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>> *From: *\"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
>>> *To: *\"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
>>> *Sent: *Friday, December 3, 2010 10:23:51 AM
>>> *Subject: *Re: [OS] UK/US/AUSTRALIA/CT- WikiLeaks back online, Assange
>>> close        to arrest
>>>
>>> yes, most likely would not stop these.  but it could disrupt whatever
>>> might be next. 
>>>
>>> Also all this trouble with internet hosting could serve to slow down
>>> this set of leaks.  And maybe a combination of wikileaks arrest and
>>> server shutdowns could stop it. 
>>>
>>> On 12/3/10 9:20 AM, Ben West wrote:
>>>
>>>     If Assange is running the show and his staff isn't as confident as
>>>     he is, then arresting him now could very well stop the flow of
>>>     cables. But all it takes is one person to keep it going - or just
>>>     dump them all at once if it gets too dicey, and these files have
>>>     been very widely distributed so far. I can't imagine anyone
>>>     reclaiming all the documents now.
>>>
>>>
>>>     On 12/3/2010 8:54 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:
>>>
>>>         yeah also remember there was an article by nytimes i think
>>>         that alot of people on his staff were uncomfortable with the
>>>         way things were playing out, so without him there they may
>>>         loose nerve or come to their better senses
>>>
>>>         On 12/3/10 8:48 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
>>>
>>>             Yes, like Fred's source pointed out--arrest and trial
>>>             would just be a political circus.  It would probably not
>>>             disrupt wikileaks.  BUT, occasonally a leader makes an
>>>             organization, and maybe no one as capable will be willing
>>>             to fill his shoes.  Or at least, won't be able to get as
>>>             much pubilicity for wikileaks.  As you also said, it could
>>>             tarnish both Assange's and Wikileaks' repution.  That coul
>>>             dserve to discredit and undermine the group.  Maybe people
>>>             would be less inclined to leak to it, or the public would
>>>             be less inclined to pay attention--or more importantly
>>>             support wikileaks financially.  Though I admit the chance
>>>             of this causing the public to pay less attention is
>>>             minimal, and in fact would probably increase attention on
>>>             the guy. 
>>>
>>>             (though personally, getting a rapist off the street is
>>>             getting a rapist off the street.  Also, his mom owns a
>>>             puppet theater...)
>>>
>>>             On 12/3/10 8:38 AM, Ben West wrote:
>>>
>>>                 What would the overall significance of his arrest be?
>>>                 It's likely that the files are backed up elsewhere and
>>>                 that someone else could give the go-ahead for
>>>                 releasing them (that could very well already be the
>>>                 case) and if his back-ups are anything like Assange,
>>>                 they would welcome the publicity that would come to
>>>                 them by filling his shoes.
>>>
>>>                 If the British got custody of him, they could conduct
>>>                 searches or evidence that would support rape charges
>>>                 and, if they happened to find material regarding the
>>>                 leaks, that could lead to new charges. But this has
>>>                 been coming for a while, and if Assange was smart, he
>>>                 would have turned over any really sensitive stuff by
>>>                 now, which would decrease the likelihood of police
>>>                 finding anything juicy.
>>>
>>>                 Seems to me that all this really does is tarnish his
>>>                 reputation and make him look like scum. It provides
>>>                 some public distraction from all the leaked documents,
>>>                 but doesn't undermine their impact - just undermines
>>>                 the character of the person who facilitated the leaks.
>>>
>>>                 any other thoughts?
>>>
>>>                 On 12/3/2010 7:40 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
>>>
>>>                     I may have sent this out before- Assange walking
>>>                     out of a CNN interview.
>>>
>>>                     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lisa9XTRLb4
>>>
>>>                     just shows how far his head is up his ass. 
>>>
>>>                     On 12/3/10 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
>>>
>>>                         looks like Assange is in the UK and they might
>>>                         actually roll on him.
>>>
>>>                         On 12/3/10 7:31 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
>>>
>>>                             *OG source
>>>                             *
>>>                             Net closes on Assange: arrest by British
>>>                             police expected in days*
>>>                             By Mark Hughes and Jerome Taylor
>>>                             Friday, 3 December 2010
>>>                             http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/net-closes-on-assange-arrest-by-british-police-expected-in-days-2149805.html
>>>
>>>                             Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, is
>>>                             expected to be arrested in the coming days
>>>                             after Swedish prosecutors filed a new
>>>                             warrant with British authorities.
>>>
>>>                             The Independent revealed yesterday that a
>>>                             procedural error with the European Arrest
>>>                             Warrant had delayed the arrest of the
>>>                             39-year-old Australian, who is wanted in
>>>                             Sweden over sexual allegations but has
>>>                             been in England since October.
>>>
>>>                             Police in Gothenburg claim they have now
>>>                             submitted a fresh warrant to the Serious
>>>                             Organised Crime Agency. Soca is expected
>>>                             to instruct Scotland Yard to arrest Mr
>>>                             Assange and have him appear before an
>>>                             extradition hearing â€“ although as of last
>>>                             night the Metropolitan Police had yet to
>>>                             receive the warrant.
>>>
>>>
>>>                             Police sources have previously said that
>>>                             they received a letter from Mr Assange's
>>>                             UK-based lawyer, Mark Stephens, containing
>>>                             information about how to contact Mr
>>>                             Assange should they need to.
>>>
>>>                             Details of the new arrest warrant came as
>>>                             a last-ditch attempt to have the
>>>                             allegations against Mr Assange dropped
>>>                             failed. Sweden's highest court upheld the
>>>                             arrest order and refused to let him appeal
>>>                             against a lower court's ruling.
>>>
>>>                             Last night, Mr Assange's family spoke of
>>>                             their fears for his safety after
>>>                             increasingly shrill statements from
>>>                             American commentators who have called for
>>>                             his assassination. His mother, Christine
>>>                             Assange, said \"the forces that he's
>>>                             challenging are too big\".
>>>
>>>                             The arrest warrant filed with Soca states
>>>                             that he was wanted on suspicion of rape,
>>>                             sexual molestation and unlawful coercion.
>>>                             But Soca requested a new warrant. A
>>>                             spokeswoman for the Swedish National
>>>                             Police Board told the BBC that the
>>>                             original one had been refused because it
>>>                             listed only the maximum penalty for the
>>>                             most serious crime alleged, rather than
>>>                             for all of the crimes.
>>>
>>>                             When the arrest is made, Mr Assange will
>>>                             be taken before an extradition hearing at
>>>                             Westminster magistrates' court. If he
>>>                             refuses to be extradited, a judge will
>>>                             preside over an extradition hearing and
>>>                             will rule whether he should be sent to
>>>                             Sweden or discharged.
>>>
>>>                             Last night, Mr Stephens said he would
>>>                             challenge any arrest in British courts.
>>>                             \"The process in this case has been so
>>>                             utterly irregular that the chances of a
>>>                             valid arrest warrant being submitted to me
>>>                             are very small,\" he said. Mr Stephens has
>>>                             accused Swedish prosecutors of launching a
>>>                             witch-hunt against his client, who
>>>                             strongly denies the rape allegations and
>>>                             says he is being smeared because of the
>>>                             exposÃ©s published by his website.
>>>
>>>                             He has maintained that Swedish prosecutors
>>>                             have yet to provide any evidence against
>>>                             Mr Assange and have ignored his requests
>>>                             to meet with them. He also expressed
>>>                             concerns at the way the UK and Swedish
>>>                             authorities were handling the case.
>>>
>>>                             \"I feel like I am sitting in the middle of
>>>                             a surreal Swedish fairytale,\" he said.
>>>                             \"The trolls keep threatening to come on
>>>                             and keep making noises off stage. But at
>>>                             the moment, no appearance from them.\"
>>>
>>>                             In an interview with an Australian
>>>                             newspaper, Mr Assange's mother defended
>>>                             her son and lambasted hawks in the US who
>>>                             have called for his death.
>>>
>>>                             Ms Assange, who runs a puppet theatre in
>>>                             Noosa, a Queensland beach resort, defended
>>>                             her son's decision to publish thousands of
>>>                             classified US documents on the website.
>>>                             \"He sees what he's doing as doing a good
>>>                             thing in the world â€“ fighting baddies, if
>>>                             you like,\" she told Queensland's Courier-Mail.
>>>
>>>                             Ms Assange â€“ who does not even own a
>>>                             computer â€“ described her son as a hero of
>>>                             the internet. But she added that she
>>>                             feared he had \"gotten too smart for
>>>                             himself\", saying: \"I'm concerned it's
>>>                             gotten too big and the forces that he's
>>>                             challenging are too big.\" She did not want
>>>                             him \"hunted down and jailed\".
>>>
>>>                             On 12/3/10 7:24 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
>>>
>>>                                 *WikiLeaks back online, Assange close
>>>                                 to arrest*
>>>
>>>                                 Updated 2 hours 45 minutes ago
>>>                                 http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/03/3084384.htm
>>>
>>>                                 The WikiLeaks website is back online
>>>                                 with a new Swiss address after its
>>>                                 previous domain name was killed.
>>>
>>>                                 The whistleblower website's original
>>>                                 domain host, EveryDNS.net, says it
>>>                                 terminated its services because
>>>                                 Wikileaks had been coming under
>>>                                 \"massive\" cyber attacks.
>>>
>>>                                 The new address - wikileaks.ch - was
>>>                                 put online six hours after the
>>>                                 original site wikileaks.org was killed.
>>>
>>>                                 An internet trace of the new domain
>>>                                 name suggests that the site itself is
>>>                                 still hosted in Sweden and in France.
>>>
>>>                                 Web users accessing the wikileaks.ch
>>>                                 address are directed to a page under
>>>                                 the URL http://213.251.145.96/ which
>>>                                 gives them access to the former site,
>>>                                 including a massive trove of leaked US
>>>                                 diplomatic traffic.
>>>
>>>                                 The WikiLeaks website released more
>>>                                 than 250,000 secret US diplomatic
>>>                                 cables this week, which has left
>>>                                 governments around the world
>>>                                 scrambling to deal with the fallout.
>>>
>>>                                 Meanwhile, British media reports
>>>                                 Scotland Yard could arrest the site's
>>>                                 founder Julian Assange within days.
>>>
>>>                                 Prosecutors in Sweden want to question
>>>                                 Mr Assange over alleged sex crimes
>>>                                 involving two women during a visit to
>>>                                 Stockholm in August.
>>>
>>>                                 Mr Assange, who was born in Australia,
>>>                                 has not been charged and he denies the
>>>                                 allegations.
>>>
>>>                                 He reportedly avoided arrest this week
>>>                                 because Swedish authorities had filled
>>>                                 out an Interpol red notice incorrectly.
>>>
>>>                                 Britain's Independent newspaper
>>>                                 reports that police know Mr Assange's
>>>                                 whereabouts in England and are
>>>                                 expected to arrest him in the coming days.
>>>
>>>                                 Mr Assange's Stockholm-based lawyer
>>>                                 Bjoern Hurtig says he will fight his
>>>                                 client's extradition to Sweden in the
>>>                                 event of his arrest.
>>>
>>>                                 \"Together with my British colleague
>>>                                 Mark Stephens and international
>>>                                 experts, we will fight the extradition
>>>                                 warrants,\" he said.
>>>
>>>                                 A WikiLeaks spokesman says Mr Assange
>>>                                 has to remain out of the public eye
>>>                                 because he is facing assassination
>>>                                 threats following the whistleblowing
>>>                                 website's publication of the secret
>>>                                 cables.
>>>
>>>                                 Several US senators have also called
>>>                                 for him to be charged with espionage.
>>>
>>>                                 Senator Dianne Feinstein says the leak
>>>                                 is a serious breach of national
>>>                                 security and action must be taken.
>>>
>>>                                 \"We have reviewed the espionage
>>>                                 statutes and we believe it qualifies,\"
>>>                                 she said.
>>>
>>>                                 \"That this, allowed to be carried out,
>>>                                 incapacitates this nation to carry out
>>>                                 business.\"
>>>                                 -- 
>>>
>>>                                 Sean Noonan
>>>
>>>                                 Tactical Analyst
>>>
>>>                                 Office: +1 512-279-9479
>>>
>>>                                 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
>>>
>>>                                 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>>>
>>>                                 www.stratfor.com
>>>
>>>
>>>                             -- 
>>>
>>>                             Sean Noonan
>>>
>>>                             Tactical Analyst
>>>
>>>                             Office: +1 512-279-9479
>>>
>>>                             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
>>>
>>>                             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>>>
>>>                             www.stratfor.com
>>>
>>>
>>>                         -- 
>>>
>>>                         Sean Noonan
>>>
>>>                         Tactical Analyst
>>>
>>>                         Office: +1 512-279-9479
>>>
>>>                         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
>>>
>>>                         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>>>
>>>                         www.stratfor.com
>>>
>>>
>>>                     -- 
>>>
>>>                     Sean Noonan
>>>
>>>                     Tactical Analyst
>>>
>>>                     Office: +1 512-279-9479
>>>
>>>                     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
>>>
>>>                     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>>>
>>>                     www.stratfor.com
>>>
>>>
>>>                 -- 
>>>                 Ben West
>>>                 Tactical Analyst
>>>                 STRATFOR
>>>                 Austin, TX
>>>                           
>>>
>>>
>>>             -- 
>>>
>>>             Sean Noonan
>>>
>>>             Tactical Analyst
>>>
>>>             Office: +1 512-279-9479
>>>
>>>             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
>>>
>>>             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>>>
>>>             www.stratfor.com
>>>
>>>
>>>         -- 
>>>         Michael Wilson
>>>         Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
>>>         Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
>>>         Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
>>>
>>>               
>>>
>>>
>>>     -- 
>>>     Ben West
>>>     Tactical Analyst
>>>     STRATFOR
>>>     Austin, TX
>>>         
>>>
>>>
>>> -- 
>>>
>>> Sean Noonan
>>>
>>> Tactical Analyst
>>>
>>> Office: +1 512-279-9479
>>>
>>> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
>>>
>>> Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>>>
>>> www.stratfor.com
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> -- 
>>> Sean Noonan
>>> Tactical Analyst
>>> Office: +1 512-279-9479
>>> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
>>> Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>>> www.stratfor.com
>>>
>>>
>>>       
>
> -- 
>
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
>
> Marko Papic
>
> Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
>
> STRATFOR
>
> 700 Lavaca Street - 900
>
> Austin, Texas
>
> 78701 USA
>
> P: + 1-512-744-4094
>
> marko.papic@stratfor.com
>
","2010-12-07 14:50:44",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1056763_re-discussion-assange-arrested-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1056988,"Re: Wikileaks is attacking us
","Assange is going to make a nice bride in prison.  Screw the terrorist. 
He'll be eating cat food forever, unless George Soros hires him. 

Reva Bhalla wrote:
> what.... the hell is that.  
>
> On Dec 7, 2010, at 11:24 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:
>
>> would this suffice?
>>
>> <moz-screenshot-88.png>
>>
>>
>> On 12/7/10 11:13 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:
>>> when are your new book jacket pics coming out?  we need some new
>>> material.
>>>
>>>
>>> On Dec 7, 2010, at 11:12 AM, George Friedman wrote:
>>>
>>>> He is always in an awkward pose. I'm merely posed in one.
>>>> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>>>>
>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>> From: Reva Bhalla <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
>>>> Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 11:05:59
>>>> To: Marko Papic<marko.papic@stratfor.com>
>>>> Reply-To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
>>>> Cc: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>; Kevin
>>>> Stech<kevin.stech@stratfor.com>; Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
>>>> Subject: Re: Wikileaks is attacking us
>>>>
>>>> Assange v Friedman... who can look more intimidating in an awkward
>>>> pose?  Find out in the 2011 annual forecast
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Dec 7, 2010, at 11:00 AM, Marko Papic wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Potential diary? Comparing WikiLeak attack to Pearl Harbor...
>>>>>
>>>>> Will STRATFOR rebound and eventually launch a nuclear attack against
>>>>> WikiLeaks?
>>>>>
>>>>> Stay tuned... for $199 a year.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On 12/7/10 10:57 AM, George Friedman wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> So pearl harbor it wasn't.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> And while we are at it a moment to remember those that fell at
>>>>>> pearl 69 years ago today wouldn't me out of place.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> If I'm not mistaken more americans died at pearl than died in iraq.
>>>>>> Not trivializing the latter. Simply highlighting the former.
>>>>>> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>>>>>>
>>>>>> From: \"Kevin Stech\" <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>
>>>>>> Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 10:42:57 -0600 (CST)
>>>>>> To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>; 'Analyst
>>>>>> List'<analysts@stratfor.com
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> Cc: 'Reva Bhalla'<reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
>>>>>> Subject: RE: Wikileaks is attacking us
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Our research request tracking system was slowed to a crawl, and
>>>>>> brought down for about 10 minutes while I disabled access to the
>>>>>> port it was attacking.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
>>>>>> [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
>>>>>> ] On Behalf Of George Friedman
>>>>>> Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 10:41
>>>>>> To: Analysts
>>>>>> Cc: Reva Bhalla
>>>>>> Subject: Re: Wikileaks is attacking us
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Did it in anyway hinder our ability to operate.
>>>>>> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>>>>>>
>>>>>> From: \"Kevin Stech\" <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>
>>>>>> Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 10:38:55 -0600 (CST)
>>>>>> To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>; 'Analyst
>>>>>> List'<analysts@stratfor.com
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
>>>>>> Cc: 'Reva Bhalla'<reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
>>>>>> Subject: RE: Wikileaks is attacking us
>>>>>>
>>>>>> We also know that the traffic was specifically designed to test for
>>>>>> misconfigured software in an attempt to gain unauthorized web
>>>>>> content. The traffic was extremely aggressive and not at all subtle
>>>>>> or stealthy. It actually bordered on a denial of service attack.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> We also know that it wasnï¿½t originating from just any wikileaks
>>>>>> address, but from their webserver.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> These facts let us make some pretty solid guesses about whatï¿½s
>>>>>> going on. Maybe Iï¿½m never proven right, but the leading theory at
>>>>>> this point is IP spoofing.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
>>>>>> [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
>>>>>> ] On Behalf Of George Friedman
>>>>>> Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 10:35
>>>>>> To: Analysts
>>>>>> Cc: Reva Bhalla
>>>>>> Subject: Re: Wikileaks is attacking us
>>>>>>
>>>>>> And yet we don't even know that for certain. Its inference.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Here is what we know. A wikileaks address has sent some amateurish
>>>>>> traffic against a minor stratfor site.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> That's it.
>>>>>> The rest inference. It would be interesting if this escalated or we
>>>>>> had more data but until we do, it is hard to justify publishing.
>>>>>> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>>>>>>
>>>>>> From: \"Kevin Stech\" <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>
>>>>>> Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 10:32:25 -0600 (CST)
>>>>>> To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>; 'Analysts'<analysts@stratfor.com>
>>>>>> ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
>>>>>> Cc: 'Reva Bhalla'<reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
>>>>>> Subject: RE: Wikileaks is attacking us
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I completely discount the idea that Wikileaks is doing the
>>>>>> attacking. Nor do I think anyone with legitimate access to their IP
>>>>>> address or network is doing this.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I think someone outside their network is spoofing their IP address,
>>>>>> generating a lot of annoying traffic, and attempting to get their
>>>>>> IP blacklisted by automatic security processes.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@att.blackberry.net]
>>>>>> Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 10:28
>>>>>> To: Kevin Stech; Analysts
>>>>>> Cc: Reva Bhalla
>>>>>> Subject: Re: Wikileaks is attacking us
>>>>>>
>>>>>> How do you know that it is wikileaks as an organization attacking
>>>>>> and not someone using them as a mask?
>>>>>> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>>>>>>
>>>>>> From: \"Kevin Stech\" <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>
>>>>>> Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 10:16:15 -0600 (CST)
>>>>>> To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>; 'Analyst
>>>>>> List'<analysts@stratfor.com
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> Cc: 'Reva Bhalla'<reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
>>>>>> Subject: RE: Wikileaks is attacking us
>>>>>>
>>>>>> What is unique in this attack
>>>>>>
>>>>>> It is a supposed attack against us by the Wikileaks webserver. Very
>>>>>> very strange and unique, especially in light of all the
>>>>>> circumstances.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Is this an attack or someone's server gone nuts.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Definitely an attack. No two ways about it.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Is there any reason except timing to assume any link to any other
>>>>>> event.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Not sure what you mean by this.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
>>>>>> [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
>>>>>> ] On Behalf Of George Friedman
>>>>>> Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 10:13
>>>>>> To: Analysts
>>>>>> Cc: Reva Bhalla
>>>>>> Subject: Re: Wikileaks is attacking us
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Three questions.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> What is unique in this attack
>>>>>> Is this an attack or someone's server gone nuts.
>>>>>> Is there any reason except timing to assume any link to any other
>>>>>> event.
>>>>>> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>>>>>>
>>>>>> From: Rodger Baker <rbaker@stratfor.com>
>>>>>> Date: Tue, 7 Dec 2010 10:11:21 -0600 (CST)
>>>>>> To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
>>>>>> ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
>>>>>> Cc: 'Reva Bhalla'<reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
>>>>>> Subject: Re: Wikileaks is attacking us
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I do not think this is something we should write on.
>>>>>> First, do we know whether this is hitting anyone other than stech's
>>>>>> personal server?
>>>>>> second, what does it mean/matter?
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Dec 7, 2010, at 10:08 AM, scott stewart wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> This is not obsessing, the attack is actually very interesting and
>>>>>> different from anything seen in the press.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
>>>>>> [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
>>>>>> ] On Behalf Of Marko Papic
>>>>>> Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 11:07 AM
>>>>>> To: Analyst List
>>>>>> Cc: Reva Bhalla
>>>>>> Subject: Re: Wikileaks is attacking us
>>>>>>
>>>>>> But the readers would want to know...
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Is a good, \"hey, whats up over here?\"
>>>>>>
>>>>>> get Stech to write it... He knows what's up and needs to nerd out
>>>>>> on Assange.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> good publicity.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> $
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On 12/7/10 10:05 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:
>>>>>> let's not obsess over this too much.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> it's really not that important, IMO...
>>>>>>
>>>>>> we sound just as obsessed as the rest of the media over this thing.
>>>>>> let's focus on real issue.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Dec 7, 2010, at 10:03 AM, scott stewart wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Yes.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
>>>>>> [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
>>>>>> ] On Behalf Of Marko Papic
>>>>>> Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 11:00 AM
>>>>>> To: Analyst List
>>>>>> Subject: Re: Wikileaks is attacking us
>>>>>>
>>>>>> If nobody else is noticing it, might be worth a quick 300 word
>>>>>> statement on it... almost like a brief.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Hey, look... this is what is happening. We dont think WikiLeaks is
>>>>>> Douchbacking us on purpose. We ask our readers for thoughts...
>>>>>>
>>>>>> LINK: Awesome diary
>>>>>>
>>>>>> LINK: Fuck you Assange
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On 12/7/10 9:57 AM, Matthew Powers wrote:
>>>>>> I have not been able to find anyone else talking about this
>>>>>> online.  Seems even stranger if it is only Stratfor's research
>>>>>> server.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Kevin Stech wrote:
>>>>>> Any reason to think the US is not behind this? Cui bono?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
>>>>>> [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
>>>>>> ] On Behalf Of scott stewart
>>>>>> Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 09:49
>>>>>> To: 'Analyst List'; 'Marko Papic'
>>>>>> Cc: it@stratfor.com
>>>>>> Subject: RE: Wikileaks is attacking us
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I agree that option 2, is not it.  Too obvious to attack us using
>>>>>> their own system.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
>>>>>> [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
>>>>>> ] On Behalf Of Kevin Stech
>>>>>> Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 10:45 AM
>>>>>> To: 'Analyst List'; 'Marko Papic'
>>>>>> Cc: it@stratfor.com
>>>>>> Subject: RE: Wikileaks is attacking us
>>>>>>
>>>>>> There are only 3 options and theyï¿½re all hugely interesting
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Least likely: someone hacked into the wikileaks server, left it
>>>>>> running, and decided to attack stratfor
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Not likely: wikileaks doesnï¿½t like stratfor and is attacking us
>>>>>> from their webserver.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Likely: someone is spoofing wikileaks and acting like the internet
>>>>>> equivalent of an abusively drunk fratboy to get the wikileaks
>>>>>> server ip blocked from as many networks as possible
>>>>>>
>>>>>> None of those scenarios is uninteresting, but I think my theory
>>>>>> fits best.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Thoughts?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
>>>>>> [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
>>>>>> ] On Behalf Of Kevin Stech
>>>>>> Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 09:30
>>>>>> To: 'Marko Papic'; 'Analyst List'
>>>>>> Cc: it@stratfor.com
>>>>>> Subject: RE: Wikileaks is attacking us
>>>>>>
>>>>>> If these nerds were going to attack us, they wouldnï¿½t be doing it
>>>>>> from their webserver. Thatï¿½s idiotic.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
>>>>>> Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 09:29
>>>>>> To: Analyst List
>>>>>> Cc: Kevin Stech; it@stratfor.com
>>>>>> Subject: Re: Wikileaks is attacking us
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Also, we published the diary on Wikileaks last night... could that
>>>>>> have something to do with it?
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On 12/7/10 9:27 AM, Marko Papic wrote:
>>>>>> Why us then?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On 12/7/10 9:26 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:
>>>>>> ï¿½or so someone wants us to think.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The research box is currently being pounded with Internet traffic,
>>>>>> doing a very aggressive, over-the-top, amateurish security scan
>>>>>> that is not only annoying, its actually limiting functionality by
>>>>>> forcing the system to cope with 1000s of bogus requests. Itï¿½s the
>>>>>> type of thing that gets your IP address banned, or at least ignored
>>>>>> for a while.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The IP address doing this? 213.251.145.96
>>>>>>
>>>>>> So who is this asshole at 213.251.145.96? None other than
>>>>>> Wikileaks. But I donï¿½t think Wikileaks is security scanning us, nor
>>>>>> do I even think Wikileaks was hacked and someone is mounting a
>>>>>> security scan from there. I think its far more likely that people
>>>>>> are spoofing the Wikileaks IP address and acting like as big of an
>>>>>> asshole as possible in order to trip everyoneï¿½s automatic security
>>>>>> that bans and ignores the offender.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> In a nutshell, I believe someone is spoofing attacks from Wikileaks
>>>>>> in order to get their IP address blocked.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Kevin Stech
>>>>>> Research Director | STRATFOR
>>>>>> kevin.stech@stratfor.com
>>>>>> +1 (512) 744-4086
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> -- 
>>>>>>
>>>>>> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>>>>>> Marko Papic
>>>>>> Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
>>>>>> STRATFOR
>>>>>> 700 Lavaca Street - 900
>>>>>> Austin, Texas
>>>>>> 78701 USA
>>>>>> P: + 1-512-744-4094
>>>>>> marko.papic@stratfor.com
>>>>>>
>>>>>> -- 
>>>>>>
>>>>>> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>>>>>> Marko Papic
>>>>>> Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
>>>>>> STRATFOR
>>>>>> 700 Lavaca Street - 900
>>>>>> Austin, Texas
>>>>>> 78701 USA
>>>>>> P: + 1-512-744-4094
>>>>>> marko.papic@stratfor.com
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> -- 
>>>>>> Matthew Powers
>>>>>> STRATFOR Researcher
>>>>>> Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
>>>>>>
>>>>>> -- 
>>>>>>
>>>>>> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>>>>>> Marko Papic
>>>>>> Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
>>>>>> STRATFOR
>>>>>> 700 Lavaca Street - 900
>>>>>> Austin, Texas
>>>>>> 78701 USA
>>>>>> P: + 1-512-744-4094
>>>>>> marko.papic@stratfor.com
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> -- 
>>>>>>
>>>>>> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>>>>>> Marko Papic
>>>>>> Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
>>>>>> STRATFOR
>>>>>> 700 Lavaca Street - 900
>>>>>> Austin, Texas
>>>>>> 78701 USA
>>>>>> P: + 1-512-744-4094
>>>>>> marko.papic@stratfor.com
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> -- 
>>>>> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>>>>> Marko Papic
>>>>> Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
>>>>> STRATFOR
>>>>> 700 Lavaca Street - 900
>>>>> Austin, Texas
>>>>> 78701 USA
>>>>> P: + 1-512-744-4094
>>>>> marko.papic@stratfor.com
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>
>
","2010-12-07 18:40:09",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1056988_re-wikileaks-is-attacking-us-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1057220,"Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested
","Depends on what charges would stick.  Bankrupt the arsehole first, ruin
his life.  Give him 7-12 yrs for conspiracy. 

Sources will die or have died is what I've been told, which is a very
conservative but reasonable assessment.  

In looking at the Wiki docs, you can easily ID a few sources if desired,
e.g., the plot to whack the VOA broadcaster by the Iranians. 

Nicolas Miller wrote:
> Fred,
>  what would be the maximum punishment for the charges you listed? has
> there been any sources that has been killed because of wikileaks?
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> *From: *\"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
> *To: *\"nathan hughes\" <nathan.hughes@stratfor.com>, \"Analyst List\"
> <analysts@stratfor.com>
> *Sent: *Tuesday, December 7, 2010 7:38:52 AM
> *Subject: *Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested
>
> Will take weeks for extradition, unless he waves the process.
>
> DOJ (Holder) won't seek prosecution on their own, but look for the GOP
> (Congress) to press for criminal prosecution.
>
> Be easy to indict.
>
> I would pursue Conspiracy and Political Terrorism charges and declassify
> the death of a source someone which I could link to Wiki.
>  
>
> Nate Hughes wrote:
> > Other thought is that I kind of feel like a lot of people were coming
> > around to recognizing his astonishing douchebaggery and he was by this
> > point undermining himself and his organization. If he does get tied up
> > in the legal system, does he come out screaming all the louder? And if
> > he does somehow get imprisoned, does he have the potential in
> > incarceration to actually become the sort of inspirational,
> > martryr-like (forgive the euphamism) figure that he always imagined
> > himself to be in the free world?
> > ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> > *From: * Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
> > *Date: *Tue, 7 Dec 2010 04:42:58 -0600 (CST)
> > *To: *Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
> > *ReplyTo: * Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
> > *Subject: *Discussion- Assange Arrested
> >
> > We had the discussion below on Friday when it was first suggested that
> > Assange would be arrested.  Here's a bit more:
> >
> > London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
> > public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to
> > appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused
> > by two woman in Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed
> > through Interpol red notices, like this case, so this is no doubt
> > about trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release of government documents.
> > While it's possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term
> > viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of cables in the
> > short-term and governments will now be concerned about what the
> > organization may release in revenge.
> >
> > see discussion below.  (revenge = that encrypted 'security' file)
> >
> > ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> > *From: *\"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
> > *To: *\"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
> > *Sent: *Friday, December 3, 2010 10:23:51 AM
> > *Subject: *Re: [OS] UK/US/AUSTRALIA/CT- WikiLeaks back online, Assange
> > close        to arrest
> >
> > yes, most likely would not stop these.  but it could disrupt whatever
> > might be next.
> >
> > Also all this trouble with internet hosting could serve to slow down
> > this set of leaks.  And maybe a combination of wikileaks arrest and
> > server shutdowns could stop it.
> >
> > On 12/3/10 9:20 AM, Ben West wrote:
> >
> >     If Assange is running the show and his staff isn't as confident as
> >     he is, then arresting him now could very well stop the flow of
> >     cables. But all it takes is one person to keep it going - or just
> >     dump them all at once if it gets too dicey, and these files have
> >     been very widely distributed so far. I can't imagine anyone
> >     reclaiming all the documents now.
> >
> >
> >     On 12/3/2010 8:54 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:
> >
> >         yeah also remember there was an article by nytimes i think
> >         that alot of people on his staff were uncomfortable with the
> >         way things were playing out, so without him there they may
> >         loose nerve or come to their better senses
> >
> >         On 12/3/10 8:48 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
> >
> >             Yes, like Fred's source pointed out--arrest and trial
> >             would just be a political circus.  It would probably not
> >             disrupt wikileaks.  BUT, occasonally a leader makes an
> >             organization, and maybe no one as capable will be willing
> >             to fill his shoes.  Or at least, won't be able to get as
> >             much pubilicity for wikileaks.  As you also said, it could
> >             tarnish both Assange's and Wikileaks' repution.  That coul
> >             dserve to discredit and undermine the group.  Maybe people
> >             would be less inclined to leak to it, or the public would
> >             be less inclined to pay attention--or more importantly
> >             support wikileaks financially.  Though I admit the chance
> >             of this causing the public to pay less attention is
> >             minimal, and in fact would probably increase attention on
> >             the guy.
> >
> >             (though personally, getting a rapist off the street is
> >             getting a rapist off the street.  Also, his mom owns a
> >             puppet theater...)
> >
> >             On 12/3/10 8:38 AM, Ben West wrote:
> >
> >                 What would the overall significance of his arrest be?
> >                 It's likely that the files are backed up elsewhere and
> >                 that someone else could give the go-ahead for
> >                 releasing them (that could very well already be the
> >                 case) and if his back-ups are anything like Assange,
> >                 they would welcome the publicity that would come to
> >                 them by filling his shoes.
> >
> >                 If the British got custody of him, they could conduct
> >                 searches or evidence that would support rape charges
> >                 and, if they happened to find material regarding the
> >                 leaks, that could lead to new charges. But this has
> >                 been coming for a while, and if Assange was smart, he
> >                 would have turned over any really sensitive stuff by
> >                 now, which would decrease the likelihood of police
> >                 finding anything juicy.
> >
> >                 Seems to me that all this really does is tarnish his
> >                 reputation and make him look like scum. It provides
> >                 some public distraction from all the leaked documents,
> >                 but doesn't undermine their impact - just undermines
> >                 the character of the person who facilitated the leaks.
> >
> >                 any other thoughts?
> >
> >                 On 12/3/2010 7:40 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
> >
> >                     I may have sent this out before- Assange walking
> >                     out of a CNN interview.
> >
> >                     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lisa9XTRLb4
> >
> >                     just shows how far his head is up his ass.
> >
> >                     On 12/3/10 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
> >
> >                         looks like Assange is in the UK and they might
> >                         actually roll on him.
> >
> >                         On 12/3/10 7:31 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
> >
> >                             *OG source
> >                             *
> >                             Net closes on Assange: arrest by British
> >                             police expected in days*
> >                             By Mark Hughes and Jerome Taylor
> >                             Friday, 3 December 2010
> >                            
> http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/net-closes-on-assange-arrest-by-british-police-expected-in-days-2149805.html
> >
> >                             Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, is
> >                             expected to be arrested in the coming days
> >                             after Swedish prosecutors filed a new
> >                             warrant with British authorities.
> >
> >                             The Independent revealed yesterday that a
> >                             procedural error with the European Arrest
> >                             Warrant had delayed the arrest of the
> >                             39-year-old Australian, who is wanted in
> >                             Sweden over sexual allegations but has
> >                             been in England since October.
> >
> >                             Police in Gothenburg claim they have now
> >                             submitted a fresh warrant to the Serious
> >                             Organised Crime Agency. Soca is expected
> >                             to instruct Scotland Yard to arrest Mr
> >                             Assange and have him appear before an
> >                             extradition hearing â€“ although as of last
> >                             night the Metropolitan Police had yet to
> >                             receive the warrant.
> >
> >
> >                             Police sources have previously said that
> >                             they received a letter from Mr Assange's
> >                             UK-based lawyer, Mark Stephens, containing
> >                             information about how to contact Mr
> >                             Assange should they need to.
> >
> >                             Details of the new arrest warrant came as
> >                             a last-ditch attempt to have the
> >                             allegations against Mr Assange dropped
> >                             failed. Sweden's highest court upheld the
> >                             arrest order and refused to let him appeal
> >                             against a lower court's ruling.
> >
> >                             Last night, Mr Assange's family spoke of
> >                             their fears for his safety after
> >                             increasingly shrill statements from
> >                             American commentators who have called for
> >                             his assassination. His mother, Christine
> >                             Assange, said \"the forces that he's
> >                             challenging are too big\".
> >
> >                             The arrest warrant filed with Soca states
> >                             that he was wanted on suspicion of rape,
> >                             sexual molestation and unlawful coercion.
> >                             But Soca requested a new warrant. A
> >                             spokeswoman for the Swedish National
> >                             Police Board told the BBC that the
> >                             original one had been refused because it
> >                             listed only the maximum penalty for the
> >                             most serious crime alleged, rather than
> >                             for all of the crimes.
> >
> >                             When the arrest is made, Mr Assange will
> >                             be taken before an extradition hearing at
> >                             Westminster magistrates' court. If he
> >                             refuses to be extradited, a judge will
> >                             preside over an extradition hearing and
> >                             will rule whether he should be sent to
> >                             Sweden or discharged.
> >
> >                             Last night, Mr Stephens said he would
> >                             challenge any arrest in British courts.
> >                             \"The process in this case has been so
> >                             utterly irregular that the chances of a
> >                             valid arrest warrant being submitted to me
> >                             are very small,\" he said. Mr Stephens has
> >                             accused Swedish prosecutors of launching a
> >                             witch-hunt against his client, who
> >                             strongly denies the rape allegations and
> >                             says he is being smeared because of the
> >                             exposÃ©s published by his website.
> >
> >                             He has maintained that Swedish prosecutors
> >                             have yet to provide any evidence against
> >                             Mr Assange and have ignored his requests
> >                             to meet with them. He also expressed
> >                             concerns at the way the UK and Swedish
> >                             authorities were handling the case.
> >
> >                             \"I feel like I am sitting in the middle of
> >                             a surreal Swedish fairytale,\" he said.
> >                             \"The trolls keep threatening to come on
> >                             and keep making noises off stage. But at
> >                             the moment, no appearance from them.\"
> >
> >                             In an interview with an Australian
> >                             newspaper, Mr Assange's mother defended
> >                             her son and lambasted hawks in the US who
> >                             have called for his death.
> >
> >                             Ms Assange, who runs a puppet theatre in
> >                             Noosa, a Queensland beach resort, defended
> >                             her son's decision to publish thousands of
> >                             classified US documents on the website.
> >                             \"He sees what he's doing as doing a good
> >                             thing in the world â€“ fighting baddies, if
> >                             you like,\" she told Queensland's
> Courier-Mail.
> >
> >                             Ms Assange â€“ who does not even own a
> >                             computer â€“ described her son as a hero of
> >                             the internet. But she added that she
> >                             feared he had \"gotten too smart for
> >                             himself\", saying: \"I'm concerned it's
> >                             gotten too big and the forces that he's
> >                             challenging are too big.\" She did not want
> >                             him \"hunted down and jailed\".
> >
> >                             On 12/3/10 7:24 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
> >
> >                                 *WikiLeaks back online, Assange close
> >                                 to arrest*
> >
> >                                 Updated 2 hours 45 minutes ago
> >                                
> http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/03/3084384.htm
> >
> >                                 The WikiLeaks website is back online
> >                                 with a new Swiss address after its
> >                                 previous domain name was killed.
> >
> >                                 The whistleblower website's original
> >                                 domain host, EveryDNS.net, says it
> >                                 terminated its services because
> >                                 Wikileaks had been coming under
> >                                 \"massive\" cyber attacks.
> >
> >                                 The new address - wikileaks.ch - was
> >                                 put online six hours after the
> >                                 original site wikileaks.org was killed.
> >
> >                                 An internet trace of the new domain
> >                                 name suggests that the site itself is
> >                                 still hosted in Sweden and in France.
> >
> >                                 Web users accessing the wikileaks.ch
> >                                 address are directed to a page under
> >                                 the URL http://213.251.145.96/ which
> >                                 gives them access to the former site,
> >                                 including a massive trove of leaked US
> >                                 diplomatic traffic.
> >
> >                                 The WikiLeaks website released more
> >                                 than 250,000 secret US diplomatic
> >                                 cables this week, which has left
> >                                 governments around the world
> >                                 scrambling to deal with the fallout.
> >
> >                                 Meanwhile, British media reports
> >                                 Scotland Yard could arrest the site's
> >                                 founder Julian Assange within days.
> >
> >                                 Prosecutors in Sweden want to question
> >                                 Mr Assange over alleged sex crimes
> >                                 involving two women during a visit to
> >                                 Stockholm in August.
> >
> >                                 Mr Assange, who was born in Australia,
> >                                 has not been charged and he denies the
> >                                 allegations.
> >
> >                                 He reportedly avoided arrest this week
> >                                 because Swedish authorities had filled
> >                                 out an Interpol red notice incorrectly.
> >
> >                                 Britain's Independent newspaper
> >                                 reports that police know Mr Assange's
> >                                 whereabouts in England and are
> >                                 expected to arrest him in the coming
> days.
> >
> >                                 Mr Assange's Stockholm-based lawyer
> >                                 Bjoern Hurtig says he will fight his
> >                                 client's extradition to Sweden in the
> >                                 event of his arrest.
> >
> >                                 \"Together with my British colleague
> >                                 Mark Stephens and international
> >                                 experts, we will fight the extradition
> >                                 warrants,\" he said.
> >
> >                                 A WikiLeaks spokesman says Mr Assange
> >                                 has to remain out of the public eye
> >                                 because he is facing assassination
> >                                 threats following the whistleblowing
> >                                 website's publication of the secret
> >                                 cables.
> >
> >                                 Several US senators have also called
> >                                 for him to be charged with espionage.
> >
> >                                 Senator Dianne Feinstein says the leak
> >                                 is a serious breach of national
> >                                 security and action must be taken.
> >
> >                                 \"We have reviewed the espionage
> >                                 statutes and we believe it qualifies,\"
> >                                 she said.
> >
> >                                 \"That this, allowed to be carried out,
> >                                 incapacitates this nation to carry out
> >                                 business.\"
> >                                 --
> >
> >                                 Sean Noonan
> >
> >                                 Tactical Analyst
> >
> >                                 Office: +1 512-279-9479
> >
> >                                 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
> >
> >                                 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
> >
> >                                 www.stratfor.com
> >
> >
> >                             --
> >
> >                             Sean Noonan
> >
> >                             Tactical Analyst
> >
> >                             Office: +1 512-279-9479
> >
> >                             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
> >
> >                             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
> >
> >                             www.stratfor.com
> >
> >
> >                         --
> >
> >                         Sean Noonan
> >
> >                         Tactical Analyst
> >
> >                         Office: +1 512-279-9479
> >
> >                         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
> >
> >                         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
> >
> >                         www.stratfor.com
> >
> >
> >                     --
> >
> >                     Sean Noonan
> >
> >                     Tactical Analyst
> >
> >                     Office: +1 512-279-9479
> >
> >                     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
> >
> >                     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
> >
> >                     www.stratfor.com
> >
> >
> >                 --
> >                 Ben West
> >                 Tactical Analyst
> >                 STRATFOR
> >                 Austin, TX
> >                          
> >
> >
> >             --
> >
> >             Sean Noonan
> >
> >             Tactical Analyst
> >
> >             Office: +1 512-279-9479
> >
> >             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
> >
> >             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
> >
> >             www.stratfor.com
> >
> >
> >         --
> >         Michael Wilson
> >         Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
> >         Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
> >         Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
> >
> >              
> >
> >
> >     --
> >     Ben West
> >     Tactical Analyst
> >     STRATFOR
> >     Austin, TX
> >        
> >
> >
> > --
> >
> > Sean Noonan
> >
> > Tactical Analyst
> >
> > Office: +1 512-279-9479
> >
> > Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
> >
> > Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
> >
> > www.stratfor.com
> >
> >
> >
> > --
> > Sean Noonan
> > Tactical Analyst
> > Office: +1 512-279-9479
> > Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
> > Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
> > www.stratfor.com
> >
> >
","2010-12-07 14:47:59",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1057220_re-discussion-assange-arrested-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1057231,"RE: USE ME Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested
","   Yeah its like, phew, good thing Napster got its ass owned and people don't
   share pirated media anymore.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
   Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 07:53
   To: Analyst List
   Cc: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: USE ME Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested

    

   Wikileaks itself may struggle to survive but the idea that's put out
   there, that anyone with the bandwidth and servers to support such a system
   can act as a prime outlet of leaks. Ppl are obsessed with this kind of
   stuff. The idea behind it won't die

   Sent from my iPhone

   On Dec 7, 2010, at 8:43 AM, Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com> wrote:

     *Here's my full set of thoughts.  This may be a little too informal for
     our regular articles.  Hopefully this addresses the questions that have
     already come up. 

     London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
     public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to
     appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused
     by two woman in Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed
     through Interpol red notices, like this case, so this is no doubt about
     trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release of government documents.  While it's
     possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term viability of
     WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of cables in the short-term and
     governments will now be concerned about what the organization may
     release in revenge.

     Leadership is extremely important in non-governmental organizations that
     have not institutionalized.  From terrorist grous  to charities [LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923_death_top_indonesian_militant],
     these organizations often ebb and flow along with their founders. 
     WikiLeaks is a new organization that has a created a novel method for an
     old practice- leaking confidential government information in an attempt
     to influence politics.  Leaking will not go away with Assange's arrest,
     but WikiLeaks might. 

     WikiLeaks created itself with Assange as the only public face-- he leads
     supports, drives donations, and faces criticism.  This has made many in
     the organization unhappy, and some have left it after disagreeing with
     him.  If Assange were to face charges in Sweden for sexual assault or
     new charges in the UK or US and was found guilty, WikiLeaks would still
     need someone to operate it.  Assange may have someone waiting in the
     wings, but that is not evident. 

     WikiLeaks has also suffered logistically and as a brand.  As national
     governments put pressure on its infrastructure, its websites have been
     shut and most importantly its main source of funding- PayPal- has closed
     WikiLeaks account.  With such pressure and government monitoring, future
     leakers may be too afraid of getting intercepted and go elsewhere. 
     Moreover, this new set of documents have not worked out like Assange
     expected- the public is not angry at the State Department, but many are
     angry at Assange and his organization. 

     Assange's arrest won't stop the continued leaks of this large batch of
     US State Department cables.  It also won't shut down WikiLeaks, which
     still maintains its website and the ability to collect information from
     leakers.  So in the short-term, WikiLeaks will maintain.  The question
     remains if it has created a truly sustainable institutions-- one where
     leaders are replacable, members can adapt to changing circumstance, and
     representatives can aid and inspire new leakers. 

     If Asange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
     coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, will
     he be able to maintain WikiLeaks image?  That is hard to say, but
     growing public criticism of him indicates his inability to grow
     WikiLeaks support base.  Western govrenments also fear whatever is
     contained in his ___ file, for which he threatens to release an
     encryption key if something happens to him.  WikiLeaks has already
     released its most damaging documents-- its attempt to get public
     attention-- and they haven't amounted to much.  This new file likely
     contains no more damaging information, but instead is full of names. 
     The names of sources who will be at risk and those of diplomats,
     military or intelligence officers who could lose their jobs. 

     WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations do--the
     ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
     circumstances.  Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR cannot
     speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he isn't,
     WikiLeaks will struggle to survive. 

     On 12/7/10 6:36 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     I would imagine the most politically \"exciting\" stuff has been published
     (much of which we already knew) but some of the less sexy things may be
     more damaging when released or released uncensored b/c it burns sources
     and people's careers (a few people have already lost their jobs in
     western countries...what about sources in less democratic countries)

     On 12/7/10 5:18 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

     I am not clear about your argument in the last line. Why this arrest
     could disrupt long-term viability of Wikileaks? I would say the
     opposite, that there might be short-term disruptions (latest release was
     two days ago) but Wikileaks will work in the long-term. They already
     have over 250K documents and if they release them at the same pace,
     Wikileaks will have very long-term viability. Also, Ben's point below
     about possibly backed up documents is worth considering. 

      

     One more question. How do we now that Wikileaks has more sensitive
     information that governments should be concerned about as a revenge?
     Recall George's initial argument that they probably published most
     sensitive information at the very beginning to draw attention. 

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Tuesday, December 7, 2010 12:42:49 PM
     Subject: Discussion- Assange Arrested

     We had the discussion below on Friday when it was first suggested that
     Assange would be arrested.  Here's a bit more:

     London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
     public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to
     appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused
     by two woman in Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed
     through Interpol red notices, like this case, so this is no doubt about
     trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release of government documents.  While it's
     possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term viability of
     WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of cables in the short-term and
     governments will now be concerned about what the organization may
     release in revenge.

     see discussion below.  (revenge = that encrypted 'security' file)

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Friday, December 3, 2010 10:23:51 AM
     Subject: Re: [OS] UK/US/AUSTRALIA/CT- WikiLeaks back online, Assange
     close        to arrest

     yes, most likely would not stop these.  but it could disrupt whatever
     might be next. 

     Also all this trouble with internet hosting could serve to slow down
     this set of leaks.  And maybe a combination of wikileaks arrest and
     server shutdowns could stop it. 

     On 12/3/10 9:20 AM, Ben West wrote:

     If Assange is running the show and his staff isn't as confident as he
     is, then arresting him now could very well stop the flow of cables. But
     all it takes is one person to keep it going - or just dump them all at
     once if it gets too dicey, and these files have been very widely
     distributed so far. I can't imagine anyone reclaiming all the documents
     now.

     On 12/3/2010 8:54 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     yeah also remember there was an article by nytimes i think that alot of
     people on his staff were uncomfortable with the way things were playing
     out, so without him there they may loose nerve or come to their better
     senses

     On 12/3/10 8:48 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     Yes, like Fred's source pointed out--arrest and trial would just be a
     political circus.  It would probably not disrupt wikileaks.  BUT,
     occasonally a leader makes an organization, and maybe no one as capable
     will be willing to fill his shoes.  Or at least, won't be able to get as
     much pubilicity for wikileaks.  As you also said, it could tarnish both
     Assange's and Wikileaks' repution.  That coul dserve to discredit and
     undermine the group.  Maybe people would be less inclined to leak to it,
     or the public would be less inclined to pay attention--or more
     importantly support wikileaks financially.  Though I admit the chance of
     this causing the public to pay less attention is minimal, and in fact
     would probably increase attention on the guy. 

     (though personally, getting a rapist off the street is getting a rapist
     off the street.  Also, his mom owns a puppet theater...)

     On 12/3/10 8:38 AM, Ben West wrote:

     What would the overall significance of his arrest be? It's likely that
     the files are backed up elsewhere and that someone else could give the
     go-ahead for releasing them (that could very well already be the case)
     and if his back-ups are anything like Assange, they would welcome the
     publicity that would come to them by filling his shoes.

     If the British got custody of him, they could conduct searches or
     evidence that would support rape charges and, if they happened to find
     material regarding the leaks, that could lead to new charges. But this
     has been coming for a while, and if Assange was smart, he would have
     turned over any really sensitive stuff by now, which would decrease the
     likelihood of police finding anything juicy.

     Seems to me that all this really does is tarnish his reputation and make
     him look like scum. It provides some public distraction from all the
     leaked documents, but doesn't undermine their impact - just undermines
     the character of the person who facilitated the leaks.

     any other thoughts?

     On 12/3/2010 7:40 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     I may have sent this out before- Assange walking out of a CNN interview.

     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lisa9XTRLb4

     just shows how far his head is up his ass. 

     On 12/3/10 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     looks like Assange is in the UK and they might actually roll on him.

     On 12/3/10 7:31 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     *OG source
     Net closes on Assange: arrest by British police expected in days
     By Mark Hughes and Jerome Taylor
     Friday, 3 December 2010
     http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/net-closes-on-assange-arrest-by-british-police-expected-in-days-2149805.html

     Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, is expected to be arrested in the
     coming days after Swedish prosecutors filed a new warrant with British
     authorities.

     The Independent revealed yesterday that a procedural error with the
     European Arrest Warrant had delayed the arrest of the 39-year-old
     Australian, who is wanted in Sweden over sexual allegations but has been
     in England since October.

     Police in Gothenburg claim they have now submitted a fresh warrant to
     the Serious Organised Crime Agency. Soca is expected to instruct
     Scotland Yard to arrest Mr Assange and have him appear before an
     extradition hearing - although as of last night the Metropolitan Police
     had yet to receive the warrant.

     Police sources have previously said that they received a letter from Mr
     Assange's UK-based lawyer, Mark Stephens, containing information about
     how to contact Mr Assange should they need to.

     Details of the new arrest warrant came as a last-ditch attempt to have
     the allegations against Mr Assange dropped failed. Sweden's highest
     court upheld the arrest order and refused to let him appeal against a
     lower court's ruling.

     Last night, Mr Assange's family spoke of their fears for his safety
     after increasingly shrill statements from American commentators who have
     called for his assassination. His mother, Christine Assange, said \"the
     forces that he's challenging are too big\".

     The arrest warrant filed with Soca states that he was wanted on
     suspicion of rape, sexual molestation and unlawful coercion. But Soca
     requested a new warrant. A spokeswoman for the Swedish National Police
     Board told the BBC that the original one had been refused because it
     listed only the maximum penalty for the most serious crime alleged,
     rather than for all of the crimes.

     When the arrest is made, Mr Assange will be taken before an extradition
     hearing at Westminster magistrates' court. If he refuses to be
     extradited, a judge will preside over an extradition hearing and will
     rule whether he should be sent to Sweden or discharged.

     Last night, Mr Stephens said he would challenge any arrest in British
     courts. \"The process in this case has been so utterly irregular that the
     chances of a valid arrest warrant being submitted to me are very small,\"
     he said. Mr Stephens has accused Swedish prosecutors of launching a
     witch-hunt against his client, who strongly denies the rape allegations
     and says he is being smeared because of the exposes published by his
     website.

     He has maintained that Swedish prosecutors have yet to provide any
     evidence against Mr Assange and have ignored his requests to meet with
     them. He also expressed concerns at the way the UK and Swedish
     authorities were handling the case.

     \"I feel like I am sitting in the middle of a surreal Swedish fairytale,\"
     he said. \"The trolls keep threatening to come on and keep making noises
     off stage. But at the moment, no appearance from them.\"

     In an interview with an Australian newspaper, Mr Assange's mother
     defended her son and lambasted hawks in the US who have called for his
     death.

     Ms Assange, who runs a puppet theatre in Noosa, a Queensland beach
     resort, defended her son's decision to publish thousands of classified
     US documents on the website. \"He sees what he's doing as doing a good
     thing in the world - fighting baddies, if you like,\" she told
     Queensland's Courier-Mail.

     Ms Assange - who does not even own a computer - described her son as a
     hero of the internet. But she added that she feared he had \"gotten too
     smart for himself\", saying: \"I'm concerned it's gotten too big and the
     forces that he's challenging are too big.\" She did not want him \"hunted
     down and jailed\".

     On 12/3/10 7:24 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     WikiLeaks back online, Assange close to arrest

     Updated 2 hours 45 minutes ago
     http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/03/3084384.htm

     The WikiLeaks website is back online with a new Swiss address after its
     previous domain name was killed.

     The whistleblower website's original domain host, EveryDNS.net, says it
     terminated its services because Wikileaks had been coming under
     \"massive\" cyber attacks.

     The new address - wikileaks.ch - was put online six hours after the
     original site wikileaks.org was killed.

     An internet trace of the new domain name suggests that the site itself
     is still hosted in Sweden and in France.

     Web users accessing the wikileaks.ch address are directed to a page
     under the URL http://213.251.145.96/ which gives them access to the
     former site, including a massive trove of leaked US diplomatic traffic.

     The WikiLeaks website released more than 250,000 secret US diplomatic
     cables this week, which has left governments around the world scrambling
     to deal with the fallout.

     Meanwhile, British media reports Scotland Yard could arrest the site's
     founder Julian Assange within days.

     Prosecutors in Sweden want to question Mr Assange over alleged sex
     crimes involving two women during a visit to Stockholm in August.

     Mr Assange, who was born in Australia, has not been charged and he
     denies the allegations.

     He reportedly avoided arrest this week because Swedish authorities had
     filled out an Interpol red notice incorrectly.

     Britain's Independent newspaper reports that police know Mr Assange's
     whereabouts in England and are expected to arrest him in the coming
     days.

     Mr Assange's Stockholm-based lawyer Bjoern Hurtig says he will fight his
     client's extradition to Sweden in the event of his arrest.

     \"Together with my British colleague Mark Stephens and international
     experts, we will fight the extradition warrants,\" he said.

     A WikiLeaks spokesman says Mr Assange has to remain out of the public
     eye because he is facing assassination threats following the
     whistleblowing website's publication of the secret cables.

     Several US senators have also called for him to be charged with
     espionage.

     Senator Dianne Feinstein says the leak is a serious breach of national
     security and action must be taken.

     \"We have reviewed the espionage statutes and we believe it qualifies,\"
     she said.

     \"That this, allowed to be carried out, incapacitates this nation to
     carry out business.\"

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

      

 --

 Ben West

 Tactical Analyst

 STRATFOR

 Austin, TX

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

      

 --

 Michael Wilson

 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR

 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

  

      

 --

 Ben West

 Tactical Analyst

 STRATFOR

 Austin, TX

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

     --
     Sean Noonan
     Tactical Analyst
     Office: +1 512-279-9479
     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
     www.stratfor.com

     --
     --
     Emre Dogru
     STRATFOR  
     Cell: +90.532.465.7514
     Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
     emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
     www.stratfor.com

 --

 Michael Wilson

 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR

 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

  

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-07 14:58:50",1,"2012-02-28 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1057231_re-use-me-re-discussion-assange-arrested-.html","kevin.stech@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1058451,"Re: diary for comment
","   Nice work threading the needle on this one. Couple thoughts:

   Make clear and link back to our diary from last week that no serious
   person doubts that international diplomacy entails duplicity and
   deception. Read machiavelli.

   Also, whatever wikileaks can claim to have achieved, it has also
   substantially undermined candid exchange between nations. Diplomacy
   necessarily and has always entailed discretion and confidence. Without
   unveilling anything of watergate or even mcchrystal rolling stone
   revelatory, they've (without cause, other than the principle of the thing)
   thrown back the curtain that allows nations to function in a pragmatic
   sense, if not a rhetorical one -- thereby undermining the process without
   any clear gain. (I'm rambling on this graph a bit so don't run with it
   verbatim, but trying to emphasize that he's undermined how nations have
   interacted for hundreds of years for no clear reason, so as fun as these
   are to read, it's a little unproductive in the middle of a period of
   serious geopolitical maneuvering...)

   \"...technological advancements have long since minimized the utility of
   mobile archery...\" Need something about horse-mobile

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Date: Mon, 6 Dec 2010 19:59:35 -0600 (CST)
   To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: diary for comment

   Julian Assange, spokesman for Wikileaks, said over the weekend that
   \"geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post- Cablegate phases.\" A
   number of developments on Monday seemed to support his bold thesis. But
   STRATFOR nonetheless disagrees. 

    

   Another batch of released cables on Monday included a note from the U.S.
   Secretary of State Hilary Clinton asking U.S. diplomats abroad to gather a
   list of sites sensitive to U.S. national security interests. In the cable,
   Clinton asked for an updated list of sites \"which, if destroyed, disrupted
   or exploited, would likely have an immediate and deleterious effect on the
   United States.\" The disclosure sparked immediate outrage with U.S.
   officials, with the U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley
   commenting that the release \"amounts to giving a targeting list to groups
   like al-Qaida\".

    

   Meanwhile, STRATFOR sources in the U.S. as well as foreign intelligence
   agencies and diplomatic corps have continued on Monday to speak to us
   about how the leaks have indeed had a negative effect on their ability to
   conduct diplomatic business as usual. A senior foreign diplomat of a
   critical country to Washington's interests working inside the U.S.
   revealed to us that they are apprehensively waiting to see if their name
   is in the cables. Their candor with U.S. diplomats - often done at the
   expense of home government and as an attempt to build credibility with
   U.S. counterparts - may very well cost them their job if conversations are
   revealed. A precedent has been set within that country's foreign ministry,
   the diplomat acknowledged, of pulling back on speaking honestly about
   government deficiencies with U.S. officials.

    

   U.S. intelligence and diplomatic officials have also expressed
   frustration, with particularly negative implications for operations in the
   Middle East.  The U.S. intelligence community is also looking for ways to
   further compartmentalize information (LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20101201_dispatch_wikileaks_and_implications_intelligence_sharing
   ) to prohibit similar disclosures in the future.

    

   Repercussions of Cablegate therefore are serious and global, not confined
   only to American statecraft. Diplomacy and intelligence professions may
   very well consider classifying its eras as pre- and post- Cablegate.

    

   But we take issue with the thesis that the Cablegate will mark geopolitics
   itself. Geopolitics is a set of constraints imposed primarily by geography
   -- with demographics and technology playing roles as well -- that limit
   strategic options for leaders. Belgium may want to be a world power - and
   it may have dabbled in the pursuit of such power in the jungles of the
   Congo -- but its existence is defined by its geography as a buffer between
   France and Germany. Mongolia may once have dominated vast stretches of the
   Eurasian steppe, but technological advancements have long since minimized
   the utility of mobile archery.

    

   One could argue that Cablegate introduces a new set of constraints,
   constraints of open information that will limit how governments pursue
   their national interests. But the episode does not actually affect one set
   of countries disproportionately over others. In fact, as much as the U.S.
   will now be hampered in intelligence sharing among its diplomats and
   intelligence officials a much less technologically advanced country will
   be hampered in getting its point across in a frank manner. It is not clear
   if anyone wins or loses. Power structures established by geography,
   demographics and technology remain unaffected. One continues to be either
   constrained or enabled by their particular circumstances.

    

   Diplomacy and intelligence work are crafts of manipulating and alleviating
   the constraints of geopolitics.  They are not constraints or enablers
   themselves. Diplomats and intelligence officials will adapt to the new set
   of constraints in their work --much as they adapted to the telegraph or
   the photocopy machine -- and this will take time, resources and training.
   But ultimately geopolitics remains unaffected.

    

   Perhaps we have misread Assange's point. Perhaps behind the thesis that
   Cablegate would change geopolitics is not a simple argument of new
   constraints and enablers emerging, but rather the assumption that the
   revelation of supposed cynicism and insidious scheming of U.S. diplomats
   would by itself create a call for change within the American - and global
   -- society. This has not happened. In fact, the U.S. public - as well as
   publics across the globe - seem to be very much aware of what their
   diplomats are doing and how they are going about their business. They are,
   as Joseph Stalin once wrote, quite aware that \"sincere diplomacy is no
   more possible than dry water or wooden iron.\"

    

    

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-12-07 03:13:46",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1058451_re-diary-for-comment-.html","nathan.hughes@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1060101,"Re: Assange is off the hook...
","   If it really matters I can look in to it, but from what I am hearing that
   is not the case. 
   That's not to say that my friend is foolproof either. She knows nothing of
   law or politics, she just knows the girl in question and follows the
   news. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:57:59 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   It is about rape. They asked him to use a condom, but he apparently likes
   unprotected sex.

   Sweden has very low threshold for what constitutes rape by the way,
   according to a lawyer friend.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Chris Farnham\" <chris.farnham@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:42:16 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   Is it possible to revoke some one's citizenship on the grounds of them
   being a total dickhead? 
   I don't care about the other leaks but the ones he has made that
   potentially damage Australian interests upset me. 
   If I thought I could switch this dickhead off without getting done I don't
   think I'd have too much of a problem.
   BTW, close family friend in Sweden who knows the girl that is pressing
   charges tells me that there is absolutely nothing behind it other than
   prosecutors that are looking to make a name for themselves. My friend
   speaks rather disparagingly about the girl who is claiming molestation. I
   also think the whole rape thing is incorrect for if I remember correctly
   rape was never the charge. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:23:03 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   What a douche.

   And I just want to be clear here... I have no problem with the leaks. I
   think they're great. And I think it may be good on some level to have
   stuff like this come out once in a while. What I can't stand is A) his ego
   trip and B) his clear anti-Americanism. Take the time to read the intro to
   Cablegate when you get the chance. This guy hates America more than OBL.

   What I love, however, is how nobody in the U.S. is mad about the cables.
   Hell, I have a better opinion of State Department diplomats now than I did
   before the cables. They actually said a few smart things here and there. I
   actually gave them a tip of my hat.

   I want to see him try to take on the Russians. He'd be going bald in an
   Iceland hospital within days.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:11:39 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   should we change our Stratfor motto now?
   Predictive, insightful intelligence...in a post-Cablegate world.
   On Dec 5, 2010, at 10:05 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: a**I believe
      geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases.a**

     Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer saying
     how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files -- including
     names of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has a**been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information
      age.a**

     Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
     extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
     password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly
     endangering U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would it
     not then be possible to prosecute him for espionage? 

     -- 
     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
     Marko Papic
     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
     STRATFOR
     700 Lavaca Street - 900
     Austin, Texas
     78701 USA
     P: + 1-512-744-4094
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-06 06:01:04",1,"2012-02-28 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1060101_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html","chris.farnham@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1061018,"RE: Random Business Idea - Network Security
","   Well governments are another matter I think. There is almost no possible
   way, with probably a couple tiny exceptions, to enfranchise your entire
   bureaucracy. So instead billions will be spent on wildly complex
   mechanisms to not only control the information you don't have access to,
   but to control the information you do have access to. Which basically
   amounts to controlling you.

    

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, December 09, 2010 00:38
   To: Kevin Stech
   Subject: Re: Random Business Idea - Network Security

    

   Or as Assange says in that interview: \"treat your employees well\".

   Great point. Problem is, that doesn't sell. ;)

   Imagine telling that to our leadership... lol

   On 12/9/10 12:34 AM, Kevin Stech wrote:

   You're right that it's really not a technological issue. There's a great
   technology for keeping your private data private already. It's called
   mandatory access control and it's been around for decades. The issue is
   more subtle since you're dealing with people leaking stuff they've been
   cleared to see. And now you're in the realm of grey matter.

    

   And it seems to me that here, as in many other things, an ounce of
   prevention is worth a pound of cure. I think that prevention can be boiled
   down to having a cohesive team with members that feel enfranchised. You
   don't leak your classified material, you leak their classified material.
   So if you want to be shady and exploit other people, fine. Just make sure
   you are on the same page with your co-conspirators and everybody gets a
   cut.

    

   If your company sells baby cribs and your employees are church-going
   soccer moms, then you might want to tone down the Dr. Evil routine.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Thursday, December 09, 2010 00:16
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: Random Business Idea - Network Security

    

   That is the one...

   Forbes mentions how companies are now focusing on \"leak-proof\" network
   security. Interesting. I think that we would have a possible in there
   since that is not just about IT. But I don't really know what I am talking
   about.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Kevin Stech\" <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, December 9, 2010 12:11:02 AM
   Subject: RE: Random Business Idea - Network Security

   I believe this is the article Marko is talking about.

    

   WikiLeaks' next target is big business, Assange says

   Andy Greenberg, Forbes.com

   Date: Wed. Dec. 1 2010 7:39 PM ET

   http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/World/20101201/forbes-assange-interview-101201/

    

   In a rare interview, Assange tells Forbes that the release of Pentagon and
   State Department documents are just the beginning. His next target: big
   business.

    

   Early next year, Julian Assange says, a major American bank will suddenly
   find itself turned inside out. Tens of thousands of its internal documents
   will be exposed on Wikileaks.org with no polite requests for executives'
   response or other forewarnings. The data dump will lay bare the finance
   firm's secrets on the Web for every customer, every competitor, every
   regulator to examine and pass judgment on.

    

   When? Which bank? What documents? Cagey as always, Assange won't say, so
   his claim is impossible to verify. But he has always followed through on
   his threats. Sitting for a rare interview in a London garden flat on a
   rainy November day, he compares what he is ready to unleash to the damning
   e-mails that poured out of the Enron trial: a comprehensive vivisection of
   corporate bad behavior. \"You could call it the ecosystem of corruption,\"
   he says, refusing to characterize the coming release in more detail. \"But
   it's also all the regular decision making that turns a blind eye to and
   supports unethical practices: the oversight that's not done, the
   priorities of executives, how they think they're fulfilling their own
   self-interest.\"

    

   This is Assange: a moral ideologue, a champion of openness, a control
   freak. He pauses to think-a process that occasionally puts our
   conversation on hold for awkwardly long interludes. The slim 39-year-old
   WikiLeaks founder wears a navy suit over his 6-foot-2 frame, and his once
   shaggy white hair, recently dyed brown, has been cropped to a sandy
   patchwork of blonde and tan. He says he colors it when he's \"being
   tracked.\"

    

   \"These big-package releases. There should be a cute name for them,\" he
   says, then pauses again.

    

   \"Megaleaks?\" I suggest, trying to move things along.

    

   \"Yes, that's good-megaleaks.\" His voice is a hoarse, Aussie-tinged
   baritone. As a teenage hacker in Melbourne its pitch helped him
   impersonate IT staff to trick companies' employees into revealing their
   passwords over the phone, and today it's deeper still after a recent bout
   of flu. \"These megaleaks . . . they're an important phenomenon. And
   they're only going to increase.\"

    

   He'll see to that. By the time you're reading this another giant dump of
   classified U.S. documents may well be public. Assange refused to discuss
   the leak at the time FORBES went to press, but he claims it is part of a
   series that will have the greatest impact of any WikiLeaks release yet.
   Assange calls the shots: choosing the media outlets that splash his
   exposes, holding them to a strict embargo, running the leaks
   simultaneously on his site. Past megaleaks from his information insurgency
   over the last year have included 76,000 secret Afghan war documents and
   another trove of 392,000 files from the Iraq war. Those data explosions,
   the largest classified military security breaches in history, have roused
   antiwar activists and enraged the Pentagon.

    

   Admire Assange or revile him, he is the prophet of a coming age of
   involuntary transparency. Having exposed military misconduct on a grand
   scale, he is now gunning for corporate America. Does Assange have
   unpublished, damaging documents on pharmaceutical companies? Yes, he says.
   Finance? Yes, many more than the single bank scandal we've been
   discussing. Energy? Plenty, on everything from BP to an Albanian oil firm
   that he says attempted to sabotage its competitors' wells. Like
   informational IEDs, these damaging revelations can be detonated at will.

    

   Long gone are the days when Daniel Ellsberg had to photocopy thousands of
   Vietnam War documents to leak the Pentagon Papers. Modern whistleblowers,
   or employees with a grudge, can zip up their troves of incriminating
   documents on a laptop, USB stick or portable hard drive, spirit them out
   through personal e-mail accounts or online drop sites-or simply submit
   them directly to WikiLeaks.

    

   What do large companies think of the threat? If they're terrified, they're
   not saying. None would talk to us. Nor would the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
   WikiLeaks \"is high profile, legally insulated and transnational,\" says
   former Commerce Department official James Lewis, who follows cybersecurity
   for the Center for Strategic & International Studies. \"That adds up to a
   reputational risk that companies didn't have to think about a year ago.\"

    

   Already U.S. laws wrapped into financial reform this year expand
   whistleblower incentives to offer six- and seven-digit rewards to staffers
   in any industry who report malfeasance. WikiLeaks adds another, new form
   of corporate data breach: It offers the conscience-stricken and vindictive
   alike a chance to publish documents largely unfiltered, without censors or
   personal repercussions, thanks to privacy and encryption technologies that
   make anonymity easier than ever before. WikiLeaks' technical and
   ideological example has inspired copycats from Africa to China and rallied
   transparency advocates to push for a new, legal promised land in the
   unlikely haven of Iceland. It's also fueling a race in the cybersecurity
   industry and in Washington to find technology that can plug information
   leaks once for all.

    

   Today Assange looks tired, his eyes narrowed and the skin beneath them
   puffy, as if he's unused to even England's gloomy daylight. He has no
   permanent home. \"We're like a traveling production company; everyone moves
   somewhere, and we put on a production,\" he sighs. \"We haven't had any rest
   since April.\" In Sweden, where many of the group's servers are based, a
   warrant has now been issued for his arrest on rape charges. He's denied
   the accusations, arguing they amount to smear tactics. He's also afraid to
   set foot in several other countries, including the U.S., fearing that
   officials will find reasons to detain him. No question that WikiLeaks
   would be in trouble if he were jailed: A spokeswoman says it has a
   \"contingency plan,\" but without Assange there is no public face.
   Meanwhile, his resources have been drained by defections from his
   organization; some old friends and associates have taken issue with his
   autocratic style.

    

   None of which has stopped him from picking new fights. The promised
   release of bank documents would be the largest assault by WikiLeaks on the
   corporate sector, and Assange says the business community should expect
   plenty of sequels. In early October the site shut down its
   document-submission system; Assange says it was receiving more information
   than it could find resources to publish, thousands of additions a day at
   some points. The total is more gigabytes of data than he can count. \"Our
   pipeline of leaks has been increasing exponentially as our profile rises,\"
   he says, drawing a curve upward in the air with one hand.

    

   If even a fraction of his claims are borne out, he's already sitting on a
   crypt of data any three-letter spy agency would kill for. The world's most
   vocal transparency advocate is now one of the world's biggest keepers of
   secrets. And about half of those revelations, says Assange, relate to the
   private sector.

    

   Over the last four years he has been so busy embarrassing various
   governments, from Washington to the corrupt Kenyan regime of Daniel arap
   Moi, that many forget the corporate scandals already on WikiLeaks' trophy
   wall. In January 2008 the site posted documents alleging that the Swiss
   bank Julius Baer hid clients' profits from even the Swiss government,
   concealing them in what seemed to be shell companies in the Cayman
   Islands. The bank filed a lawsuit against WikiLeaks for publishing data
   stolen from its clients. Baer later dropped the suit-but managed to stir
   up embarrassing publicity for itself. The next year WikiLeaks published
   documents from a pharma trade group implying that its lobbyists were
   receiving confidential documents from and exerting influence over a World
   Health Organization project to fund drug research in the developing world.
   The resulting attention helped crater the WHO project.

    

   In September 2009 commodities giant Trafigura filed an injunction that
   prevented British media from mentioning a damaging internal report. The
   memo showed the company had dumped tons of toxic waste in the Ivory Coast,
   chemicals that allegedly sickened 100,000 locals. But it couldn't stop
   WikiLeaks from publishing the information. Trafigura eventually paid more
   than $200 million in settlements.

    

   How can an American corporation respond to a Wiki attack? Lawsuits won't
   work: WikiLeaks is legally shielded in the U.S. by its role as a mere
   conduit for documents. Even if a company somehow won a judgment against
   WikiLeaks, that wouldn't shut it down. Assange spreads the site's assets
   over many countries. \"There's no single target to drop a bomb on,\" says
   Eric Goldman, a law professor at Santa Clara University.

    

   The best protection? With a dash of irony Icelandic WikiLeaks staffer
   Kristinn Hrafnsson suggests that companies change their ways to avoid
   targeting. \"They should resist the temptation to enter into corruption,\"
   he says. Don Tapscott, coauthor of The Naked Corporation (Free Press,
   2003), agrees. His simplistic conclusion: \"Open your own kimono. You're
   going to be naked. So you have to dig deep, look at your whole operation,
   make sure that integrity is part of your bones.\"

    

   Most corporations, instead, are turning to cybersecurity to shield their
   private parts. Despite dozens of calls to companies in tech, energy and
   finance, none wanted to talk about antileaking strategies. But a Forrester
   Research study found that about a quarter of companies in the U.S., the
   U.K., France, Germany and Canada were implementing leak-focused security
   software in 2010, and another third are considering that option. A study
   last year by the Ponemon Institute, a privacy-research consultancy in
   Traverse City, Mich., found that 60% of employees admit to taking
   sensitive data before they leave a company.

    

   *****

    

   Some of the more intriguing antileak work is being done by Uncle Sam. In
   an unmarked government building on the edge of a residential Arlington,
   Va. neighborhood, a cybersecurity researcher named Peiter Zatko shows just
   how easily leaks can occur. He lays out a blow-by-blow history of one
   insider data theft: The suspect searched broadly over the network to find
   anything related to critical infrastructure, then returned to manually
   probe a few interesting files. \"Then he walked away with enough
   information to shut down big chunks of the telephone systems in the United
   States,\" Zatko says matter-of-factly.

    

   Who was that shadowy data smuggler? \"That was me,\" says the 39-year-old
   researcher, giggling bashfully.

    

   Zatko is not your typical Department of Defense employee. Even in his new
   Beltway digs, he prefers to be called \"Mudge,\" the hacker handle he used
   during decades of exploring the dark corners of the Internet. Frank Heidt,
   a former security staffer at MCI and several military contractors, says
   that when he first read Zatko's exploit research in mid-1990s hacker
   zines, he thought that Mudge must be the pseudonym of a group. \"He was so
   prolific that I thought he couldn't be one person,\" Heidt says. In 1998,
   as part of the L0pht hacker think tank, Zatko testified in a congressional
   hearing that he and his friends could shut down the Internet in 30
   minutes.

    

   Since March Zatko has also been a lead cybersecurity researcher at the
   Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the mad-scientist wing of the
   Pentagon devoted to projects that occasionally result in breakthroughs
   like the Internet and GPS. Zatko's new pet project may be equally
   ambitious: He aims to rid the world of digital leaks.

    

   The telephone system theft case that Zatko dissected in a Darpa conference
   room was a test, demonstrating that anyone with access to a network could
   steal data without detection, despite the system's expensive security
   software. Now his challenge is to fix the problem. Since August he has led
   a project known as the Cyber Insider Threat, or Cinder. Like most Darpa
   initiatives it's an X-Prize-style open invitation for ideas; recipients
   typically get tens of millions of dollars in government funding.
   Thirty-five entrants, mostly tiny companies, have already publicly signed
   up, many more in secret. \"We're looking to everyone from academia to
   startups to large government contractors,\" says Zatko. \"We're not looking
   for evolutionary improvement. We want to pull the rug out from the problem
   altogether.\"

    

   It's a well-worn carpet. Since late 2007 every major security software
   vendor, from McAfee to Symantec to Trend Micro, has spent hundreds of
   millions of dollars to acquire companies in the so-called Data-Leak
   Prevention (DLP) industry-software designed to locate and tag sensitive
   information, and then guard against its escape at the edges of a firm's
   network.

    

   The problem: DLP doesn't work. Data is simply created too quickly, and
   moved around too often, for a mere filter to catch it, says Richard
   Stiennon, an analyst for security consultancy IT-Harvest, in Birmingham,
   Mich. \"For DLP to function, all the stars have to align,\" he says. \"This
   is a huge problem that can't be stopped with a single layer of
   infrastructure.\"

    

   More fashionable now is network forensics: the process of constantly
   collecting every fingerprint on a company's servers to trace an intruder
   or leaker after the fact-and, perhaps, deter the next one. That's a bit
   like fighting the next war according to the last one. Still, revenue at
   NetWitness, a prominent Herndon, Va. startup in that budding field, has
   leaped from $250,000 to $40 million since 2006. While the software
   generally gathers data and makes it easily available to queries, it
   doesn't pinpoint culprits. \"There's nothing in current technology that can
   do this in an automated fashion,\" says Shawn Carpenter, principal
   forensics analyst at NetWitness. \"You need a Columbo.\"

    

   Or, better yet, a robo-Columbo. Darpa's Zatko has been working on a system
   of automatically identifying what he calls \"malicious missions\": insider
   activity aimed at stealing data from inside a company's firewall, whether
   it's a Dell PC remotely hijacked by a Chinese cyberspy or Bradley
   Mannings, the U.S. soldier accused of leaking classified documents about
   combat in Afghanistan to WikiLeaks. Zatko's system would monitor networks
   in real-time for just the sort of data-stealing behavior he would perform
   himself: steps like scouring large areas of the network for a certain
   file, dumping piles of data to external storage hardware or sending
   encrypted files out over the Internet. No single episode would signal a
   leak; instead, the software would link acts in a probabilistic chain,
   triggering an alert only if a string of events points to purposeful data
   theft.

    

   Some of that leaky behavior isn't what a casual observer might expect.
   Consider the cyber footprints left by Robert Hanssen, a former FBI agent
   serving a life sentence in a Colorado supermax prison for selling
   intelligence to the Soviets over two decades. Every few days Hanssen would
   stop his normal activities and make a single query to a server across the
   network, a pattern he repeated for years. That server, Zatko says, held
   the counterintelligence database. Hanssen was searching for himself, a
   routine check to see if he'd finally been found out.

    

   \"You put all these things together into the different components of the
   mission,\" says Zatko. \"I'm looking for these new rhythms, new tells, new
   interrelations and requirements.\"

    

   Cinder wasn't created to combat WikiLeaks-in fact, it predates WikiLeaks'
   biggest military scandals. But Zatko has nonetheless found himself
   squarely in opposition to Assange's mission-a strange face-off, given that
   the two men once traveled in the same hacker circles, during the years
   when Assange went by the hacker handle Mendax (a Latin reference to the
   \"splendidly deceptive\" in the poet Horace's Odes) and reveled in accessing
   corporate and government systems without authorization. Neither will
   reveal much about their past encounters, but Assange says that they \"were
   in the same milieu.\" Asked about Assange, Zatko says only, \"I have very
   pleasant memories of those old days.\"

    

   WikiLeaks' founder, in fact, seems to have trouble accepting that Mudge is
   working for the other side. \"He's a clever guy, and he's also highly
   ethical,\" says Assange. \"I suspect he would have concerns about creating a
   system to conceal genuine abuses.\" He dismisses Cinder as just another
   system of digital censorship. And those systems, he says, will always
   fail, just as China's Great Firewall can't stop well-informed and
   determined dissident Internet users. \"Censorship might work for the
   average person but not for highly motivated people,\" Assange says. \"And
   our people are highly motivated.\"

    

   *****

    

   Shutting down WikiLeaks wouldn't stop the growing movement of transparency
   agitators. They now have a nation-size ally: Iceland. Since WikiLeaks
   scored a major scoop unearthing the corrupt loans that helped destroy that
   country's largest bank, the volcanic island is fast on its way to becoming
   the conduit for a global flood of leaks.

    

   It began when Kaupthing Bank collapsed in October 2008-a calamitous chain
   reaction that has strapped Iceland with $128 billion in debts, around
   $400,000 per capita. Ten months later Bogi Agustsson, a Walter
   Cronkite-ish anchor for Icelandic national broadcaster RUV, appeared on
   the evening news and explained that a legal injunction had prevented the
   station from airing a prepared expose on Kaupthing. Viewers who wanted to
   see the material, he suggested, should visit a site called Wikileaks.org.

    

   Those who took Agustsson's advice found a summary of Kaupthing's loan book
   posted on the site, detailing more than $6 billion funneled from
   Kaupthing's coffers to its own proprietors and companies they owned, often
   with little or no collateral; $900 million went to Olafur Olafsson, a
   major investor in Kaupthing who, on his birthday, flew in Elton John from
   England, along with a grand piano, for a one-hour concert. \"The banks had
   been eaten from the inside out,\" says Kristinn Hrafnsson, a former
   investigative reporter in Reykjavik who now works with WikiLeaks.

    

   A government investigation is still going on; no criminal charges have
   been filed. But WikiLeaks became a household name in Iceland. In December
   2009 Assange and Daniel Domscheit-Berg, a German who then worked with
   WikiLeaks, were invited to keynote a free-speech conference in Reykjavik.
   Their talk echoed an idea from American cyberlibertarian John Perry
   Barlow, calling for a \"Switzerland of bits.\" Iceland, with its independent
   spirit and recent taste of explosive whistle-blowing, they suggested,
   could become the digital doppelga:nger of a tax haven: a safe harbor for
   transparency, where it's open season on government and business
   secrets-and leakers are protected by law.

    

   The idea might have gone nowhere if not for Birgitta Jonsdottir. Assange's
   message captivated the 43-year-old poet and self-styled
   \"realist-anarchist.\" She wasn't just another idealistic protester with a
   goth wardrobe and hipster haircut. In the chaotic political environment
   that followed the national financial crisis, Jonsdottir had been elected
   to Iceland's parliament, the Althingi, in April 2009.

    

   Working with the country's transparency activists, she pulled together the
   Icelandic Modern Media Initiative, or Immi. The initiative would bring to
   Iceland all the source-protection, freedom of information and transparency
   laws from around the world and even set up a Nobel-style international
   award for work in the field of free expression. Jonsdottir pushed through
   a unanimous resolution to create a series of bills to implement Immi. They
   would also make Iceland the most friendly legal base for whistleblowers on
   Earth.

    

   Velkomin, as Icelanders would say, to Leakistan.

    

   \"The more that companies resist, the more information will get out about
   them,\" says Jonsdottir when we meet in Reykjavik's Hressingarskalinn cafe,
   around the corner from the parliament building. \"They can't hide anymore.
   The war is over. They lost.\" In Jonsdottir's vision Iceland will attract
   both mainstream media and WikiLeaks-like organizations to move their data
   to Iceland, enjoying legal protection, just as another firm might
   incorporate in a tax-sheltering island in the Caribbean.

    

   She may be getting a bit ahead of herself. Immi has yet to become law,
   though it has backing from powerful figures, including both Iceland's
   minister of justice and the head of its progressive party. Even if it
   does, Immi likely wouldn't offer much legal protection to organizations
   whose assets and staff aren't physically in the country; they could still
   be sued anywhere else in the world, given that their digital and print
   publications could appear globally. Immi could also face resistance from
   the U.S. and the EU-particularly when it comes to military matters. As
   Marc Thiessen, a conservative pundit, wrote on the blog of the American
   Enterprise Institute in August, \"Immi calls into question Iceland's
   seriousness as a NATO ally, and Iceland needs to realize there will be
   consequences for its actions.\" There could be a backlash for exposing
   corporate secrets, too. Alastair Mullis, a professor of law at East Anglia
   University in Britain, says, \"It's possible that Iceland will become the
   defamation capital of the world.\"

    

   Jonsdottir and fellow Immi creator Smari McCarthy are pushing ahead
   anyway. Immi, they say, doesn't fashion new laws; it cherry-picks existing
   statutes from around the world (source shields from Sweden, libel
   protection from New York State, protected communications with journalists
   from Belgium, among them). \"We're basing our legislation on laws that have
   already withstood attacks,\" says Jonsdottir. Defamation and other concerns
   like child pornography and copyright violations, she argues, would still
   be illegal in Iceland and wouldn't be sheltered.

    

   Nor is the idea to protect WikiLeaks itself, Jonsdottir points out. The
   site doesn't need help: Its data and submissions process are carefully
   encrypted, and its infrastructure is spread over enough
   countries-including some servers in a bombproof, underground bunker in
   Sweden-that taking it offline is already nearly impossible.

   Instead Immi would foster a new wave of media organizations and
   whistleblower outlets that don't rely on WikiLeaks' technical savvy or
   resources. Already a handful of smaller, leak-focused conduits-regional
   sites like Africa-focused SaharaReporters or Thaileaks.info-have published
   damning data. Immi's McCarthy says he's been approached by media
   organizations from Rwanda to Chechnya. German WikiLeaks staffer Daniel
   Domscheit-Berg, disgruntled with Assange's laser focus on infrequent
   megaleaks, has left the organization along with several others to create
   his own spinoff. \"In the end there must be a thousand WikiLeaks,\" he told
   Der Spiegel in September.

    

   Iceland certainly has the infrastructure for a lot of informational
   mischief. Half an hour outside Reykjavik, on a landscape that resembles
   Mars covered in snow, the Thor Data Center is preparing for an influx of
   bytes. By 2011 it hopes to have thousands of servers in its
   aluminum-plant-turned-server-farm, powered by ultracheap geothermal energy
   and cooled by free arctic air. Iceland's biggest Web host, ironically
   named 1984 Web Hosting, is excited about the boost Immi could give its
   business. \"I created this company to prevent thought control,\" says Mordur
   Ingolfsson, its chief executive. \"In my humble opinion, Immi is the most
   important thing to happen to this godforsaken island since the Sagas were
   written.\" (That's 600-plus years.)

    

   Jonsdottir agrees: \"WikiLeaks was an important icebreaker. It was the tip.
   Immi is the rest of the wedge, and it will open up everything.\" (She is
   less thrilled to learn that Assange speaks of Immi as his personal
   creation.)I ask Assange how he expects companies to cope with a world
   where hundreds of WikiLeak-alikes may soon exist. His three-part
   prescription is earnest-if a bit patronizing: \"Do things to encourage
   leaks from dishonest competitors. Be as open and honest as possible. Treat
   your employees well.\"

   He also wants to clear up a misunderstanding. Despite his revolutionary
   reputation, he's not antibusiness. He bristles at the media's focus on his
   teenage years as a computer hacker who broke into dozens of systems, from
   the Department of Defense to Nortel, and was eventually convicted on 25
   charges of computer fraud and fined thousands of dollars.

    

   Instead, he prefers to think of himself as an entrepreneur. He tells the
   story of a free-speech-focused Internet service provider he cofounded in
   1993, known as Suburbia. It was, to hear him tell it, the blueprint for
   WikiLeaks-in one instance, when the Church of Scientology demanded to know
   who had posted antichurch information on one site, he refused to help.
   (\"He has titanium balls,\" says David Gerard, that site's creator.) \"I saw
   it early on, without realizing it: potentiating people to reveal their
   information, creating a conduit,\" Assange says. \"Without having any other
   robust publisher in the market, people came to us.\"

    

   Leaks merely lubricate the free market, he says, settling into the couch
   and clearly enjoying giving me a lecture on economics. (Later, as a
   45-minute interview pushes into two hours, he ignores his handler, who
   keeps urging him to leave for his next appointment.) He cites the example
   of the Chinese Sanlu Group, whose milk powder contained toxic melamine in
   2008. While poisoning its customers, Sanlu also gained an advantage over
   competitors and might have forced more of them to taint their products,
   too, or go bankrupt-if Sanlu hadn't been exposed in the Chinese press. \"In
   the struggle between open and honest companies and dishonest and closed
   companies, we're creating a tremendous reputational tax on the unethical
   companies,\" he says.

    

   Of course, Assange's tax isn't as equitable as it sounds. He alone decides
   where to apply the penalty, choosing the targets and when to expose them
   with a touch of theatrical grandstanding-and with zero accountability. For
   better-and worse-WikiLeaks has become the Julian Assange Show. As a
   photographer begins shooting, Assange wonders aloud if the coat he's
   wearing might have been produced by a labor-exploiting company. A few
   minutes later he jokes about his \"messiah complex.\"

    

   Like any true believer, Assange sees his work in simple terms. Markets, he
   reminds me, can't exist without information. Business will come to
   appreciate what he offers. And if that requires a few painful scandals in
   the process?

    

   Assange doesn't miss a beat. \"Pain for the guilty.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marko Papic
   Sent: Wednesday, December 08, 2010 19:39
   To: analysts
   Subject: Random Business Idea - Network Security

    

   I'm sure this has been thought of before at STRATFOR so excuse the
   redundancy. I was reading a solid Forbes article on Assange and it said
   that a large number of deep pocket corporations were looking into
   leak-focused network security after these Wikileak episodes.

   I was wondering if it was possible for us to get some of that
   \"leak-focused\" gravy train. This is an obvious fear sale, so that's a good
   thing. And we have something to offer that the IT security companies
   don't, mainly our focus on counter-intelligence and surveillance that Fred
   and Stick know better than anyone on the planet.

   We do a lot of good work with all the personal/executive security analysis
   as well. Could we develop some ideas and procedures on the idea of
   \"leak-focused\" network security that focuses on preventing one's own
   employees from leaking sensitive information.

   The point here is that I am sure there are certain procedures and
   precautions that companies should employ that go beyond installing network
   security network to deal with potential leaks. In fact, Im not so sure
   this is an IT problem that requires an IT solution.

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

    

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-12-09 07:44:55",1,"2012-02-27 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1061018_re-random-business-idea-network-security-.html","","","marko.papic@stratfor.com",""
1062505,"Re: WikiLeaks cables: Shell boasts it has infiltrated Nigerian
	government
","I'm sure Shell Corporate Security is hating life right about now.  

I would not be surprised to see a few Nigerian govt officials to be
locked up or blown up as a result. 

Since Shell has a U.S. footprint, the FCPA DOJ investigations will be
following suit.

MNC worst nightmare....


Fred Burton wrote:
>   WikiLeaks cables: Shell boasts it has infiltrated Nigerian government
>
> US embassy cables reveal top executive's claims that company 'knows
> everything' about key decisions in oil-rich Niger Delta
>
> The oil <http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/oil> giant Shell claimed it
> has inserted its staff into all key ministries of the Nigerian
> government, giving it access to politicians' every move in the oil-rich
> Niger Delta, according to a leaked US diplomatic cable.
>
> The company's top executive in Nigeria
> <http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/nigeria> told US diplomats that Shell
> had seconded employees to every relevant department and so knew
> \"everything that was being done in those ministries\". She boasted that
> the Nigerian government had \"forgotten\" about the extent of Shell's
> infiltration and were unaware of how much the company knew about its
> deliberations.
>
> The cache of secret dispatches from Washington's embassies in Africa
> also revealed that the Anglo-Dutch oil firm swapped intelligence with
> the US, in one case providing US diplomats with the names of Nigerian
> politicians it suspected of supporting militant activity and requesting
> information from the US on whether the militants had acquired
> anti-aircraft missiles.
>
> Other cables rreveal:
>
> • US diplomats fear that Kenya could erupt in violence worse than that
> experienced after the election in 2008 unless rampant government
> corruption is tackled.
>
> • America asked Uganda to let it know if its army intended to commit war
> crimes based on US intelligence – but did not try to prevent war crimes
> taking place.
>
> • Washington's ambassador to the troubled African state of Eritrea
> described its president, Isaias Afwerki, as a cruel \"unhinged dictator\"
> who's regime was \"one bullet away from implosion\".
>
> The latest revelations came on a day that saw hackers sympathetic to
> WikiLeaks target Mastercard and Visa over their decision to block
> payments to the whistleblowers' website who's founder, Julian Assange,
> spent a second night in prison after a judge refused him bail ahead of
> an extradition hearing to face questioning over sexual assault charges
> in Sweden.
>
> Campaigners tonight said the revelation about Shell in Nigeria
> demonstrate the tangled links between the oil firm and politicians in
> the country where, despite billions of dollars in oil revenue, 70% of
> people live below the poverty line.
>
> Cables from Nigeria show how Ann Pickard
> <http://www.shell.com.au/home/content/aus/aboutshell/who_we_are/leadership>,
> then Shell's vice-president for sub-Saharan Africa, sought to share
> intelligence with the US government on militant activity and business
> competition in the contested Niger Delta — and how, with some
> prescience, she seemed reluctant to open up because of a suspicion the
> US government was \"leaky\".
>
> But that did not prevent Pickard disclosing the company's reach into
> Nigerian government when she met US ambassador Robin Renee Sanders,
> recorded in a confidential memo from the American embassy in Abuja on 20
> October 2009.
>
> At the meeting Pickard related how the company had obtained a letter
> showing that the Nigerian government had invited bids for oil
> concessions from China. She said the Minister of State for Petroleum
> Resources Odein Ajumogobia had denied the letter had been sent but Shell
> knew similar correspondence had taken place with China and Russia
> <http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/russia>.
>
> The ambassador reported: \"She said the GON [government of Nigeria] had
> forgotten that Shell had seconded people to all the relevant ministries
> and that Shell consequently had access to everything that was being done
> in those ministries.\"
>
> Nigeria is Africa's leading oil producer and the eighth biggest exporter
> in the world, accounting for 8% of US oil imports. Although a recent UN
> report largely exonerated the company, critics accuse Shell, the biggest
> operator in the delta, and other companies, of causing widespread
> pollution and environmental damage
> <http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/cif-green/2010/nov/09/niger-delta-shell-crisis>
> in the region. Militant groups engaged in hostage-taking and sabotage
> have proliferated.
>
> The WikiLeaks disclosure was today seized on by campaigners as evidence
> of Shell's vice-like grip on the country's oil wealth. \"Shell and the
> government of Nigeria are two sides of the same coin,\" said Celestine
> AkpoBari, programme officer for Social Action Nigeria.
>
> \"Shell is everywhere. They have an eye and an ear in every ministry of
> Nigeria. They have people on the payroll in every community, which is
> why they get away with everything. They are more powerful than the
> Nigerian government.\"
>
> The criticism was echoed by Ben Amunwa of the London-based oil watchdog
> Platform <http://platformlondon.org>. \"Shell claims to have nothing to
> do with Nigerian politics,\" he said. \"In reality, Shell works deep
> inside the system, and has long exploited political channels in Nigeria
> to its own advantage.\"
>
> Nigeria tonight strenuously denied the claim. Levi Ajuonoma, a spokesman
> for state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation
> <http://www.nnpcgroup.com>, said: \"Shell does not control the government
> of Nigeria and has never controlled the government of Nigeria. This
> cable is the mere interpretation of one individual. It is absolutely
> untrue, an absolute falsehood and utterly misleading. It is an attempt
> to demean the government and we will not stand for that. I don't think
> anybody will lose sleep over it.\"
>
> Another cable released today, from the US consulate in Lagos and dated
> 19 September 2008, claims that Pickard told US diplomats that two named
> regional politicians were behind unrest in the Rivers state. She also
> asked if the American diplomats had any intelligence on shipments of
> surface to air missiles (SAMs) to militants in the Niger Delta.
>
> \"She claimed Shell has 'intelligence' that one to three SAMs may have
> been shipped to Nigerian militant groups, although she seemed somewhat
> sceptical of that information and wondered if such sensitive systems
> would last long in the harsh environment of the Niger Delta in the care
> of groups not known for their preventive maintenance practices,\" the
> cable said.
>
> Pickard also said Shell had learned from the British government details
> of Russian energy company Gazprom's ambitions to enter the Nigerian
> market. In June last year Gazprom signed a $2.5bn (£1.5bn) deal with the
> state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation to build refineries,
> pipelines and gas power stations.
>
> Shell put a request to the US consulate for potentially sensitive
> intelligence about its possible rival, which she said had secured a
> promise from the Nigerian government of access to 17 trillion cubic feet
> of natural gas – roughly a tenth of Nigeria's entire reserves.
>
> \"Pickard said that that amount of gas was only available if the GON were
> to take concessions currently assigned to other oil companies and give
> them to Gazprom. She assumed Shell would be the GON's prime target.\"
> Pickard alleged that a conversation with a Nigerian government minister
> had been secretly recorded by the Russians. Shortly after the meeting in
> the minister's office she received a verbatim transcript of the meeting
> \"from Russia\", according to the memo.
>
> The cable concludes with the observation that the oil executive had
> tended to be guarded in discussion with US officials. \"Pickard has
> repeatedly told us she does not like to talk to USG [US government]
> officials because the USG is 'leaky'.\" She may be concerned that...bad
> news about Shell's Nigerian operations will leak out.\"
>
> Shell declined to comment on the allegations, saying: \"You are seeking
> our views on a leaked cable allegedly containing information about a
> private conversation involving a Shell representative, but have declined
> to share this cable or to permit us sufficient time to obtain
> information from the person you say took part in the conversation on the
> part of Shell. In view of this, we cannot comment on the alleged
> contents of the cable, including the correctness or incorrectness of any
> statements you say it contains.\"
>
>   
","2010-12-08 22:58:01",1,"2012-03-01 23:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1062505_re-wikileaks-cables-shell-boasts-it-has-infiltrated-nigerian.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,tactical@stratfor.com,africa@stratfor.com",""
1063815,"Re: [CT] Anonymous and Occupy divergence...in the Iowa caucuses
","   occupying the caucasus themselves would be impossible -- as Sean noted its
   direct participatory democracy...each congressional district is split into
   not-so-small number of precincts, withe separate meeting places for
   democrats and republicans

   so my home town -- population 26k -- had 12 caucasus locations

   the greater des moines are (cue the laughter) would have something like 25
   times that

   and there is one other nice thing about Iowa -- the roads leading out are
   in immaculate condition

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   To: \"CT AOR\" <ct@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Peter Zeihan\" <peter.zeihan@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, November 9, 2011 9:30:51 PM
   Subject: Anonymous and Occupy divergence...in the Iowa caucuses

   Ironically after all my Anonymous bashing, i want to point out a very
   minor development. Mainly because it's funny to me. 

   I mentioned the Occupy Des Moines protest last week sometime.  It is very
   small, and a lot like Austin's.  They have been planning for a few weeks
   to Occupy the Iowa caucuses.  For those of you that don't know about the
   practice of the most important local democratic process in the world, the
   Iowa Caucuses are the first round of true competition between presidential
   candidates.  Unlike voting in a primary, it's more like a town hall
   meeting with much debate and discussion--a very open democratic form.  A
   candidate doesn't have to win Iowa necessarily to get the presidential
   nomination, but it serves to weed most of the bad ones early on in the
   race  (Iowans are fallible, they have made mistakes too). It's the one
   time that Iowa has an influence on politics, and I often say it is Iowa's
   one good thing.  I think it's January 3. 

   Back to the protestors.  Their plan has been developing to \"occupy\"
   candidate's offices.  That really means protest in front of the offices,
   which if you think of all the little shitty strip malls you see around,
   one small section would be a campaign office.  They have no security, and
   allow a lot of access to candidates if they choose to campaign in Iowa.
   The Occupy Des Moines group are not at all planning to disrupt the
   Caucuses functioning.  Though I wouldn't be surprised if they protested
   outside caucus meeting places, or more likely, brought their signs and
   slogans in with them.  These people are experienced organizers (as it
   comes to des moines), and know that if they have a political impact, one
   of the best places to aim it is the Caucuses. 

   Now here comes \"Anonymous.\"  Those of you that read the Wired background
   know that their real effect has been in popularizing \"memes.\"  One of
   these was actually Occupy Wall Street- 
   http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/20/occupy-wall-street-anonymous-connection_n_1021665.html 
   The mob of computer users and protest movement have been running on
   parallel tracks for awhile, and have served to mutually reinforce each
   other.

   Whoever from Anonymous made this new video about the Caucuses has made an
   ass out of themselves.  The video recommends actually shutting down the
   Caucuses.  That is both tactically dumb for the Occupy movement, but also
   totally antithetical to its general ideology.  For example, a Caucus
   functions very similarly to the Occupy General Assembly meetings--direct
   participatory democracy. 

   The Des Moines organizers have already spoken up- saying they have nothing
   to do with this \"Anonymous\" bullshit.  I'm happy to see I left them with
   some sense of realism.  This little event is not going to matter very
   much, but it shows how uncoordinated Anonymous is. 

   See the article below, the video is at the link. 

   Video calls for shutting down Iowa caucuses; the group Anonymous claims
   responsibility
   Jason Clayworth
   4:55 PM, Nov 6, 2011
   http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/11/06/video-calls-for-shutting-down-iowa-caucuses-the-group-anonymous-claims-responsibility/

   An anarchist-style movement that has caught the attention of the FBI and
   taken credit for hacking into military and corporate websites has now
   claimed responsibility for creating a video that urges its supporters to
   shut down the Iowa caucuses.

   Local authorities say they are aware of the video, are preparing for
   possible action by the group and are in contact with the presidential
   campaigns about the issue.

   A computer-generated voice in the online video, which had received more
   than 1,600 views by Sunday evening, says, a**Both parties are desecrating
   the American democracy and committing crimes against humanity on behalf of
   the American people.a**

   It continues: a**The primaries and caucuses put on by these parties are
   part of an elaborate scam that deceives the public into voting for
   candidates that serve the private interests of the mega corporations.
   These parties have deliberately driven tens of millions of people into
   poverty.a**

   It later says: a**We are calling upon you to occupy the campaign offices
   of presidential headquarters in Des Moines, Iowa, on Dec. 27, and
   peacefully shut down the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3.a**

   The group is believed to have no centralized operational leadership and
   appears to be piggybacking on the Occupy Des Moines movement.

   But Occupy Des Moines leaders say therea**s a difference: The Iowa
   groupa**s planned sit-ins at presidential campaign headquarters are not
   intended to shut down the Iowa caucuses, they say. Rather, they want to
   target presidential candidates and big-moneyed corporations that activists
   say are pulling the strings behind the scenes.

   While there are similarities between the groupsa** beliefs, they are
   separate, Occupy Des Moines participants emphasized Sunday.

   a**I dona**t like it one bit,a** former Rep. Ed Fallon, a Des Moines
   Democrat and participant in Occupy Des Moines, said of the video on
   Sunday. a**It doesna**t fit with my definition of Gandhi- and Martin
   Luther King Jr.-style nonviolence. The core of nonviolent action is truth.
   And if you are doing everything you can to be truthful, then you should be
   up front and transparent. No distorting of your voice or hiding.a**

   FBI sees Anonymous as security threat

   The Anonymous movement has become a potential national security threat,
   according to an article published in September by the Associated Press.

   The FBI has carried out more than 75 raids and arrested at least 16 people
   this year in connection with illegal Internet hacking jobs for which the
   group has claimed responsibility, according to the AP. One demonstration
   disrupted traffic in San Francisco as a protest after the Bay Area Rapid
   Transit system shut off cell service to deter a planned protest of a
   police shooting on a subway platform.

   The group also claimed responsibility for hacking the online payment
   processing center PayPal after it had suspended WikiLeaksa** account after
   WikiLeaks published sensitive U.S. government intelligence documents, the
   AP reported.

   Three of the Iowa campaign headquarters of presidential candidates are in
   Urbandale a** those of Michele Bachmann, a U.S. representative from
   Minnesota; former Godfathera**s Pizza CEO Herman Cain; and former
   Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

   Urbandale police are aware of the video, and while they arena**t releasing
   details of their security plans, authorities will be prepared should the
   demonstrations take an illegal turn, Urbandale officer Randy Peterson said
   Sunday.

   a**Wea**ll just try to address any issue as they arise,a** Peterson said.

   Occupy movement: We dona**t plan to interfere with voting

   Occupy Des Moines, an offshoot of an anti-Wall Street protest group, last
   week announced plans to launch nonviolent sit-ins inside campaign offices
   in the final week before the Iowa caucuses. Some of the groupa**s members
   have said they expect large-scale arrests, but they have emphasized they
   do not plan to commit violence or interfere with voting.

   a**There might be some overlapa** in what the groups believe, a**but
   Anonymous speaks for themselves and the Occupy Movement speaks for
   itself,a** said David Goodner, a demonstrator who often speaks on behalf
   of Occupy Des Moines. a**Whether the public can understand that or not,
   Ia**m not sure, but for me therea**s a clear difference.a**

   State officials were preparing for a variety of public safety scenarios
   associated with the Iowa caucuses before the video was released, said John
   Benson, a public information officer for Iowaa**s Homeland Security and
   Emergency Management Division

   a**Obviously with the video that theya**ve put out and some of the other
   work theya**re doing, that certainly increases your overall awareness,a**
   Benson said. a**But to say wea**re going to do something specific in our
   planning process, we cana**t say that right now, but it certainly has our
   attention.a**

   Party leaders: Let caucuses proceed

   Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Matt Strawn said the partya**s state
   central committee will discuss the situation at its next meeting.

   a**Successive generations of Iowans of both political parties have worked
   awfully hard to make sure Iowans have this opportunity to participate in
   this first-in-the-nation caucus,a** Strawn said. a**I certainly will do
   anything in my power to keep outside agitators from ruining something that
   a lot of people have worked very hard for over a long period of time.a**

   The integrity of the Iowa caucuses would be eroded should attempts to shut
   them down be successful, said Iowa Democratic Party Chairwoman Sue
   Dvorsky.

   a**If anyone is coming and planning to make it so the participants of the
   caucus cannot have a civil and civic conversation, then of course that
   would erode the integrity of the caucuses, and it flies in the face of
   what the caucuses are,a** Dvorsky said. a**Theya**re the most basic
   long-standing tradition in this country of neighbors coming together to
   talk about political issues.a**

   She continued: a**Ia**m hoping Iowans can protect their ability to speak
   freely and respectfully with their neighbors.a**

   About Anonymous

   Anonymous emerged in 2003 from an Internet chat channel where members
   organized web incidents for their own amusement.

   By 2008, the prankster nature of Anonymous morphed into a**hacktivism,a**
   where members sabotaged websites and leaked confidential information for
   political purposes, according to law enforcement authorities.

   The group has no formal leadership and is generally considered to be more
   of a movement than an organization. As the name implies, its members
   generally dona**t identify themselves.

   The group has generally concentrated on Internet hacking. This summer, it
   claimed credit for hacking into a Booz Allen Hamilton website and leaking
   email addresses of 90,000 U.S. military personnel and hacking a Monsanto
   Co. website and releasing personal data on 2,500 employees.

   Sources: USA Today and the Associated Press

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
   www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-10 14:15:47",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1063815_re-ct-anonymous-and-occupy-divergence-in-the-iowa-caucuses-.html","peter.zeihan@stratfor.com","mailto:ct@stratfor.com","ct@stratfor.com,sean.noonan@stratfor.com",""
1067796,"Re: USE ME Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested
","Take down the money.  Go after his infrastructure.   The tools we are
using to nail and de-construct Wiki are the same tools used to dismantle
and track aQ.  Thank Cheney & 43.  Big Brother owns his liberal
terrorist arse. 

Bayless Parsley wrote:
> On 12/7/10 7:43 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
>> *Here's my full set of thoughts.  This may be a little too informal
>> for our regular articles.  Hopefully this addresses the questions
>> that have already come up. 
>>
>> London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
>> public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to
>> appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape,
>> accused by two woman in Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are
>> passed through Interpol red notices, like this case, so this is no
>> doubt about trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release of government
>> documents.  While it's possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt
>> the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of
>> cables in the short-term and governments will now be concerned about
>> what the organization may release in revenge.
>>
>> Leadership is extremely important in non-governmental organizations
>> that have not institutionalized.  From terrorist grous  to charities
>> [LINK:
>> http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923_death_top_indonesian_militant],
>> these organizations often ebb and flow along with their founders. 
>> WikiLeaks is a new organization that has a created a novel method for
>> an old practice- leaking confidential government information in an
>> attempt to influence politics.  Leaking will not go away with
>> Assange's arrest, but WikiLeaks might. 
>> *
>> Assange created Wikileaks with himself* as the only public face-- he
>> leads supports, drives donations, and faces criticism.  This has made
>> many in the organization unhappy, and some have left it after
>> disagreeing with him. *I don't think ppl are unhappy that he is the
>> supreme leader; i think they're unhappy b/c he's a dick head who
>> doesn't allow anyone else to voice any opinions whatsoever. there is
>> a difference.*  If Assange were to face charges in Sweden for sexual
>> assault or new charges in the UK or US and was found guilty,
>> WikiLeaks would still need someone to operate it.  Assange may have
>> someone waiting in the wings, but that is not evident. 
>>
>> WikiLeaks has also suffered logistically and as a brand.  As national
>> governments put pressure on its infrastructure, its websites have
>> been shut and most importantly its main source of funding- PayPal-
>> has closed WikiLeaks account. *Does MasterCard own PayPal? I saw
>> something in an OS article about MasterCard cutting off WikiLeaks'
>> accounts*
>> With such pressure and government monitoring, future leakers may be
>> too afraid of getting intercepted and go elsewhere.  Moreover, this
>> new set of documents have not worked out like Assange expected- the
>> *U.S. *public is not angry at the State Department, but many are
>> angry at Assange and his organization. 
>> *
>> Immediately following Assange's arrest, WikiLeaks spokesperson
>> **Kristinn Hrafnsson said that it would not stop the group's
>> operations. Indeed, whether Assange remains behind bars or not, it
>> most likely will not* stop the continued leaks of this large batch of
>> US State Department cables.  It also won't shut down WikiLeaks, which
>> still maintains its website *(albeit currently on a Swiss server,
>> after its initial URL's were deactivated..or something in computer
>> speak, I don't know)* and the ability to collect information from
>> leakers.  So in the short-term, WikiLeaks will maintain.  The
>> question remains if it has created a truly sustainable institutions--
>> one where leaders are replacable, members can adapt to changing
>> circumstance, and representatives can aid and inspire new leakers. 
>>
>> If Asange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
>> coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape,
>> will he be able to maintain WikiLeaks image *define that image; I
>> would argue that this point is largely irrelevant. it's not like
>> there have been hundreds of leakers just dishing out info to him b/c
>> they admire him. it was Bradley Manning who did it in one fell
>> swoop*.?  That is hard to say, but growing public criticism of him
>> indicates his inability to grow WikiLeaks support base.  *the
>> following sentence does not flow with the previous parts of this
>> para* Western govrenments also fear whatever is contained in his ___
>> file, for which he threatens to release an encryption key if
>> something happens to him.  WikiLeaks has already released its most
>> damaging documents *this is our theory; we don't know if this is true
>> or not *-- its attempt to get public attention-- and they haven't
>> amounted to much.  This new file likely contains no more damaging
>> information, but instead is full of names.  The names of sources who
>> will be at risk and those of diplomats, military or intelligence
>> officers who could lose their jobs. 
>>
>> WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations
>> do--the ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
>> circumstances.  Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR
>> cannot speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he
>> isn't, WikiLeaks will struggle to survive. 
>>
>>
>> On 12/7/10 6:36 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:
>>> I would imagine the most politically \"exciting\" stuff has been
>>> published (much of which we already knew) but some of the less sexy
>>> things may be more damaging when released or released uncensored b/c
>>> it burns sources and people's careers (a few people have already
>>> lost their jobs in western countries...what about sources in less
>>> democratic countries)
>>>
>>> On 12/7/10 5:18 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:
>>>> I am not clear about your argument in the last line. Why this
>>>> arrest could disrupt long-term viability of Wikileaks? I would say
>>>> the opposite, that there might be short-term disruptions (latest
>>>> release was two days ago) but Wikileaks will work in the long-term.
>>>> They already have over 250K documents and if they release them at
>>>> the same pace, Wikileaks will have very long-term viability. Also,
>>>> Ben's point below about possibly backed up documents is worth
>>>> considering. 
>>>>
>>>> One more question. How do we now that Wikileaks has more sensitive
>>>> information that governments should be concerned about as a
>>>> revenge? Recall George's initial argument that they probably
>>>> published most sensitive information at the very beginning to draw
>>>> attention. 
>>>>
>>>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>> *From: *\"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
>>>> *To: *\"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
>>>> *Sent: *Tuesday, December 7, 2010 12:42:49 PM
>>>> *Subject: *Discussion- Assange Arrested
>>>>
>>>> We had the discussion below on Friday when it was first suggested
>>>> that Assange would be arrested.  Here's a bit more:
>>>>
>>>> London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
>>>> public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due
>>>> to appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape,
>>>> accused by two woman in Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely
>>>> are passed through Interpol red notices, like this case, so this is
>>>> no doubt about trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release of government
>>>> documents.  While it's possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt
>>>> the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release
>>>> of cables in the short-term and governments will now be concerned
>>>> about what the organization may release in revenge.
>>>>
>>>> see discussion below.  (revenge = that encrypted 'security' file)
>>>>
>>>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>> *From: *\"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
>>>> *To: *\"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
>>>> *Sent: *Friday, December 3, 2010 10:23:51 AM
>>>> *Subject: *Re: [OS] UK/US/AUSTRALIA/CT- WikiLeaks back online,
>>>> Assange close        to arrest
>>>>
>>>> yes, most likely would not stop these.  but it could disrupt
>>>> whatever might be next. 
>>>>
>>>> Also all this trouble with internet hosting could serve to slow
>>>> down this set of leaks.  And maybe a combination of wikileaks
>>>> arrest and server shutdowns could stop it. 
>>>>
>>>> On 12/3/10 9:20 AM, Ben West wrote:
>>>>
>>>>     If Assange is running the show and his staff isn't as confident
>>>>     as he is, then arresting him now could very well stop the flow
>>>>     of cables. But all it takes is one person to keep it going - or
>>>>     just dump them all at once if it gets too dicey, and these
>>>>     files have been very widely distributed so far. I can't imagine
>>>>     anyone reclaiming all the documents now.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>     On 12/3/2010 8:54 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:
>>>>
>>>>         yeah also remember there was an article by nytimes i think
>>>>         that alot of people on his staff were uncomfortable with
>>>>         the way things were playing out, so without him there they
>>>>         may loose nerve or come to their better senses
>>>>
>>>>         On 12/3/10 8:48 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
>>>>
>>>>             Yes, like Fred's source pointed out--arrest and trial
>>>>             would just be a political circus.  It would probably
>>>>             not disrupt wikileaks.  BUT, occasonally a leader makes
>>>>             an organization, and maybe no one as capable will be
>>>>             willing to fill his shoes.  Or at least, won't be able
>>>>             to get as much pubilicity for wikileaks.  As you also
>>>>             said, it could tarnish both Assange's and Wikileaks'
>>>>             repution.  That coul dserve to discredit and undermine
>>>>             the group.  Maybe people would be less inclined to leak
>>>>             to it, or the public would be less inclined to pay
>>>>             attention--or more importantly support wikileaks
>>>>             financially.  Though I admit the chance of this causing
>>>>             the public to pay less attention is minimal, and in
>>>>             fact would probably increase attention on the guy. 
>>>>
>>>>             (though personally, getting a rapist off the street is
>>>>             getting a rapist off the street.  Also, his mom owns a
>>>>             puppet theater...)
>>>>
>>>>             On 12/3/10 8:38 AM, Ben West wrote:
>>>>
>>>>                 What would the overall significance of his arrest
>>>>                 be? It's likely that the files are backed up
>>>>                 elsewhere and that someone else could give the
>>>>                 go-ahead for releasing them (that could very well
>>>>                 already be the case) and if his back-ups are
>>>>                 anything like Assange, they would welcome the
>>>>                 publicity that would come to them by filling his
>>>>                 shoes.
>>>>
>>>>                 If the British got custody of him, they could
>>>>                 conduct searches or evidence that would support
>>>>                 rape charges and, if they happened to find material
>>>>                 regarding the leaks, that could lead to new
>>>>                 charges. But this has been coming for a while, and
>>>>                 if Assange was smart, he would have turned over any
>>>>                 really sensitive stuff by now, which would decrease
>>>>                 the likelihood of police finding anything juicy.
>>>>
>>>>                 Seems to me that all this really does is tarnish
>>>>                 his reputation and make him look like scum. It
>>>>                 provides some public distraction from all the
>>>>                 leaked documents, but doesn't undermine their
>>>>                 impact - just undermines the character of the
>>>>                 person who facilitated the leaks.
>>>>
>>>>                 any other thoughts?
>>>>
>>>>                 On 12/3/2010 7:40 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
>>>>
>>>>                     I may have sent this out before- Assange
>>>>                     walking out of a CNN interview.
>>>>
>>>>                     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lisa9XTRLb4
>>>>
>>>>                     just shows how far his head is up his ass. 
>>>>
>>>>                     On 12/3/10 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
>>>>
>>>>                         looks like Assange is in the UK and they
>>>>                         might actually roll on him.
>>>>
>>>>                         On 12/3/10 7:31 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
>>>>
>>>>                             *OG source
>>>>                             *
>>>>                             Net closes on Assange: arrest by
>>>>                             British police expected in days*
>>>>                             By Mark Hughes and Jerome Taylor
>>>>                             Friday, 3 December 2010
>>>>                             http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/net-closes-on-assange-arrest-by-british-police-expected-in-days-2149805.html
>>>>
>>>>                             Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder,
>>>>                             is expected to be arrested in the
>>>>                             coming days after Swedish prosecutors
>>>>                             filed a new warrant with British
>>>>                             authorities.
>>>>
>>>>                             The Independent revealed yesterday that
>>>>                             a procedural error with the European
>>>>                             Arrest Warrant had delayed the arrest
>>>>                             of the 39-year-old Australian, who is
>>>>                             wanted in Sweden over sexual
>>>>                             allegations but has been in England
>>>>                             since October.
>>>>
>>>>                             Police in Gothenburg claim they have
>>>>                             now submitted a fresh warrant to the
>>>>                             Serious Organised Crime Agency. Soca is
>>>>                             expected to instruct Scotland Yard to
>>>>                             arrest Mr Assange and have him appear
>>>>                             before an extradition hearing â€“
>>>>                             although as of last night the
>>>>                             Metropolitan Police had yet to receive
>>>>                             the warrant.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>                             Police sources have previously said
>>>>                             that they received a letter from Mr
>>>>                             Assange's UK-based lawyer, Mark
>>>>                             Stephens, containing information about
>>>>                             how to contact Mr Assange should they
>>>>                             need to.
>>>>
>>>>                             Details of the new arrest warrant came
>>>>                             as a last-ditch attempt to have the
>>>>                             allegations against Mr Assange dropped
>>>>                             failed. Sweden's highest court upheld
>>>>                             the arrest order and refused to let him
>>>>                             appeal against a lower court's ruling.
>>>>
>>>>                             Last night, Mr Assange's family spoke
>>>>                             of their fears for his safety after
>>>>                             increasingly shrill statements from
>>>>                             American commentators who have called
>>>>                             for his assassination. His mother,
>>>>                             Christine Assange, said \"the forces
>>>>                             that he's challenging are too big\".
>>>>
>>>>                             The arrest warrant filed with Soca
>>>>                             states that he was wanted on suspicion
>>>>                             of rape, sexual molestation and
>>>>                             unlawful coercion. But Soca requested a
>>>>                             new warrant. A spokeswoman for the
>>>>                             Swedish National Police Board told the
>>>>                             BBC that the original one had been
>>>>                             refused because it listed only the
>>>>                             maximum penalty for the most serious
>>>>                             crime alleged, rather than for all of
>>>>                             the crimes.
>>>>
>>>>                             When the arrest is made, Mr Assange
>>>>                             will be taken before an extradition
>>>>                             hearing at Westminster magistrates'
>>>>                             court. If he refuses to be extradited,
>>>>                             a judge will preside over an
>>>>                             extradition hearing and will rule
>>>>                             whether he should be sent to Sweden or
>>>>                             discharged.
>>>>
>>>>                             Last night, Mr Stephens said he would
>>>>                             challenge any arrest in British courts.
>>>>                             \"The process in this case has been so
>>>>                             utterly irregular that the chances of a
>>>>                             valid arrest warrant being submitted to
>>>>                             me are very small,\" he said. Mr
>>>>                             Stephens has accused Swedish
>>>>                             prosecutors of launching a witch-hunt
>>>>                             against his client, who strongly denies
>>>>                             the rape allegations and says he is
>>>>                             being smeared because of the exposÃ©s
>>>>                             published by his website.
>>>>
>>>>                             He has maintained that Swedish
>>>>                             prosecutors have yet to provide any
>>>>                             evidence against Mr Assange and have
>>>>                             ignored his requests to meet with them.
>>>>                             He also expressed concerns at the way
>>>>                             the UK and Swedish authorities were
>>>>                             handling the case.
>>>>
>>>>                             \"I feel like I am sitting in the middle
>>>>                             of a surreal Swedish fairytale,\" he
>>>>                             said. \"The trolls keep threatening to
>>>>                             come on and keep making noises off
>>>>                             stage. But at the moment, no appearance
>>>>                             from them.\"
>>>>
>>>>                             In an interview with an Australian
>>>>                             newspaper, Mr Assange's mother defended
>>>>                             her son and lambasted hawks in the US
>>>>                             who have called for his death.
>>>>
>>>>                             Ms Assange, who runs a puppet theatre
>>>>                             in Noosa, a Queensland beach resort,
>>>>                             defended her son's decision to publish
>>>>                             thousands of classified US documents on
>>>>                             the website. \"He sees what he's doing
>>>>                             as doing a good thing in the world â€“
>>>>                             fighting baddies, if you like,\" she
>>>>                             told Queensland's Courier-Mail.
>>>>
>>>>                             Ms Assange â€“ who does not even own a
>>>>                             computer â€“ described her son as a hero
>>>>                             of the internet. But she added that she
>>>>                             feared he had \"gotten too smart for
>>>>                             himself\", saying: \"I'm concerned it's
>>>>                             gotten too big and the forces that he's
>>>>                             challenging are too big.\" She did not
>>>>                             want him \"hunted down and jailed\".
>>>>
>>>>                             On 12/3/10 7:24 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
>>>>
>>>>                                 *WikiLeaks back online, Assange
>>>>                                 close to arrest*
>>>>
>>>>                                 Updated 2 hours 45 minutes ago
>>>>                                 http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/03/3084384.htm
>>>>
>>>>                                 The WikiLeaks website is back
>>>>                                 online with a new Swiss address
>>>>                                 after its previous domain name was
>>>>                                 killed.
>>>>
>>>>                                 The whistleblower website's
>>>>                                 original domain host, EveryDNS.net,
>>>>                                 says it terminated its services
>>>>                                 because Wikileaks had been coming
>>>>                                 under \"massive\" cyber attacks.
>>>>
>>>>                                 The new address - wikileaks.ch -
>>>>                                 was put online six hours after the
>>>>                                 original site wikileaks.org was killed.
>>>>
>>>>                                 An internet trace of the new domain
>>>>                                 name suggests that the site itself
>>>>                                 is still hosted in Sweden and in
>>>>                                 France.
>>>>
>>>>                                 Web users accessing the
>>>>                                 wikileaks.ch address are directed
>>>>                                 to a page under the URL
>>>>                                 http://213.251.145.96/ which gives
>>>>                                 them access to the former site,
>>>>                                 including a massive trove of leaked
>>>>                                 US diplomatic traffic.
>>>>
>>>>                                 The WikiLeaks website released more
>>>>                                 than 250,000 secret US diplomatic
>>>>                                 cables this week, which has left
>>>>                                 governments around the world
>>>>                                 scrambling to deal with the fallout.
>>>>
>>>>                                 Meanwhile, British media reports
>>>>                                 Scotland Yard could arrest the
>>>>                                 site's founder Julian Assange
>>>>                                 within days.
>>>>
>>>>                                 Prosecutors in Sweden want to
>>>>                                 question Mr Assange over alleged
>>>>                                 sex crimes involving two women
>>>>                                 during a visit to Stockholm in August.
>>>>
>>>>                                 Mr Assange, who was born in
>>>>                                 Australia, has not been charged and
>>>>                                 he denies the allegations.
>>>>
>>>>                                 He reportedly avoided arrest this
>>>>                                 week because Swedish authorities
>>>>                                 had filled out an Interpol red
>>>>                                 notice incorrectly.
>>>>
>>>>                                 Britain's Independent newspaper
>>>>                                 reports that police know Mr
>>>>                                 Assange's whereabouts in England
>>>>                                 and are expected to arrest him in
>>>>                                 the coming days.
>>>>
>>>>                                 Mr Assange's Stockholm-based lawyer
>>>>                                 Bjoern Hurtig says he will fight
>>>>                                 his client's extradition to Sweden
>>>>                                 in the event of his arrest.
>>>>
>>>>                                 \"Together with my British colleague
>>>>                                 Mark Stephens and international
>>>>                                 experts, we will fight the
>>>>                                 extradition warrants,\" he said.
>>>>
>>>>                                 A WikiLeaks spokesman says Mr
>>>>                                 Assange has to remain out of the
>>>>                                 public eye because he is facing
>>>>                                 assassination threats following the
>>>>                                 whistleblowing website's
>>>>                                 publication of the secret cables.
>>>>
>>>>                                 Several US senators have also
>>>>                                 called for him to be charged with
>>>>                                 espionage.
>>>>
>>>>                                 Senator Dianne Feinstein says the
>>>>                                 leak is a serious breach of
>>>>                                 national security and action must
>>>>                                 be taken.
>>>>
>>>>                                 \"We have reviewed the espionage
>>>>                                 statutes and we believe it
>>>>                                 qualifies,\" she said.
>>>>
>>>>                                 \"That this, allowed to be carried
>>>>                                 out, incapacitates this nation to
>>>>                                 carry out business.\"
>>>>                                 -- 
>>>>
>>>>                                 Sean Noonan
>>>>
>>>>                                 Tactical Analyst
>>>>
>>>>                                 Office: +1 512-279-9479
>>>>
>>>>                                 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
>>>>
>>>>                                 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>>>>
>>>>                                 www.stratfor.com
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>                             -- 
>>>>
>>>>                             Sean Noonan
>>>>
>>>>                             Tactical Analyst
>>>>
>>>>                             Office: +1 512-279-9479
>>>>
>>>>                             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
>>>>
>>>>                             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>>>>
>>>>                             www.stratfor.com
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>                         -- 
>>>>
>>>>                         Sean Noonan
>>>>
>>>>                         Tactical Analyst
>>>>
>>>>                         Office: +1 512-279-9479
>>>>
>>>>                         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
>>>>
>>>>                         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>>>>
>>>>                         www.stratfor.com
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>                     -- 
>>>>
>>>>                     Sean Noonan
>>>>
>>>>                     Tactical Analyst
>>>>
>>>>                     Office: +1 512-279-9479
>>>>
>>>>                     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
>>>>
>>>>                     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>>>>
>>>>                     www.stratfor.com
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>                 -- 
>>>>                 Ben West
>>>>                 Tactical Analyst
>>>>                 STRATFOR
>>>>                 Austin, TX
>>>>                                 
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>             -- 
>>>>
>>>>             Sean Noonan
>>>>
>>>>             Tactical Analyst
>>>>
>>>>             Office: +1 512-279-9479
>>>>
>>>>             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
>>>>
>>>>             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>>>>
>>>>             www.stratfor.com
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>         -- 
>>>>         Michael Wilson
>>>>         Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
>>>>         Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
>>>>         Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
>>>>
>>>>                     
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>     -- 
>>>>     Ben West
>>>>     Tactical Analyst
>>>>     STRATFOR
>>>>     Austin, TX
>>>>               
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> -- 
>>>>
>>>> Sean Noonan
>>>>
>>>> Tactical Analyst
>>>>
>>>> Office: +1 512-279-9479
>>>>
>>>> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
>>>>
>>>> Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>>>>
>>>> www.stratfor.com
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> -- 
>>>> Sean Noonan
>>>> Tactical Analyst
>>>> Office: +1 512-279-9479
>>>> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
>>>> Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>>>> www.stratfor.com
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> -- 
>>>> --
>>>> Emre Dogru
>>>> STRATFOR  
>>>> Cell: +90.532.465.7514
>>>> Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
>>>> emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
>>>> www.stratfor.com
>>>
>>> -- 
>>> Michael Wilson
>>> Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
>>> Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
>>> Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
>>>
>>>       
>>
>> -- 
>>
>> Sean Noonan
>>
>> Tactical Analyst
>>
>> Office: +1 512-279-9479
>>
>> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
>>
>> Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>>
>> www.stratfor.com
>>
>
","2010-12-07 14:55:40",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1067796_re-use-me-re-discussion-assange-arrested-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1068170,"Re: Assange is off the hook...
","   It is about rape. They asked him to use a condom, but he apparently likes
   unprotected sex.

   Sweden has very low threshold for what constitutes rape by the way,
   according to a lawyer friend.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Chris Farnham\" <chris.farnham@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:42:16 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   Is it possible to revoke some one's citizenship on the grounds of them
   being a total dickhead? 
   I don't care about the other leaks but the ones he has made that
   potentially damage Australian interests upset me. 
   If I thought I could switch this dickhead off without getting done I don't
   think I'd have too much of a problem.
   BTW, close family friend in Sweden who knows the girl that is pressing
   charges tells me that there is absolutely nothing behind it other than
   prosecutors that are looking to make a name for themselves. My friend
   speaks rather disparagingly about the girl who is claiming molestation. I
   also think the whole rape thing is incorrect for if I remember correctly
   rape was never the charge. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:23:03 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   What a douche.

   And I just want to be clear here... I have no problem with the leaks. I
   think they're great. And I think it may be good on some level to have
   stuff like this come out once in a while. What I can't stand is A) his ego
   trip and B) his clear anti-Americanism. Take the time to read the intro to
   Cablegate when you get the chance. This guy hates America more than OBL.

   What I love, however, is how nobody in the U.S. is mad about the cables.
   Hell, I have a better opinion of State Department diplomats now than I did
   before the cables. They actually said a few smart things here and there. I
   actually gave them a tip of my hat.

   I want to see him try to take on the Russians. He'd be going bald in an
   Iceland hospital within days.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:11:39 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   should we change our Stratfor motto now?
   Predictive, insightful intelligence...in a post-Cablegate world.
   On Dec 5, 2010, at 10:05 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: a**I believe
      geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases.a**

     Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer saying
     how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files -- including
     names of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has a**been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information
      age.a**

     Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
     extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
     password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly
     endangering U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would it
     not then be possible to prosecute him for espionage? 

     -- 
     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
     Marko Papic
     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
     STRATFOR
     700 Lavaca Street - 900
     Austin, Texas
     78701 USA
     P: + 1-512-744-4094
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-12-06 05:57:59",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1068170_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1069315,"[EastAsia] Fwd: G3* - NEW ZEALAND- NZ leader wins 2nd term,
	pledges fiscal discipline
","   biggest thing to note from election is that Key can now proceed with the
   planned asset sales (they're expected to raise between $NZ5 billion to
   $NZ7 billion).
   49 percent of Genesis Energy is expected to be the first on the block, but
   Key has also promised to sell minority stakes in power companies in
   Meridian Energy, Mighty River Power and coal producer Solid Energy. The
   Nationals also campaigned on cutting the govt's 74 percent stake in Air
   New Zealand to 51 percent.
   Why does Stratfor potentially care? Because there are a lot of energy
   assets on offer here. Let's watch and see if/how China responds.
   NZ is in a very different economic position to Oz - last year they posted
   a record deficit of $NZ18.4 billion - so there are definite opportunities
   for willing buyers.

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: G3* - NEW ZEALAND- NZ leader wins 2nd term, pledges fiscal       
             discipline                                                       
       Date: Sat, 26 Nov 2011 08:50:39 -0600 (CST)                            
       From: Adelaide Schwartz <adelaide.schwartz@stratfor.com>               
   Reply-To: analysts@stratfor.com                                            
         To: alerts@stratfor.com                                              

   NZ leader wins 2nd term, pledges fiscal discipline
   By NICK PERRY | AP aEUR\" 1 hr 51 mins ago. Nov. 26, 2011
   http://news.yahoo.com/nz-leader-wins-2nd-term-pledges-fiscal-discipline-125705751.html
   WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) aEUR\" Prime Minister John Key convincingly
   won a second term as New Zealand's leader in elections Saturday that open
   the door for the sales of billions of dollars worth of government assets
   as part of a plan to reduce the country's debt.
   Key's center-right National Party has promised to get the nation's books
   in order and begin paying down foreign debt within the next three years.
   That message has taken on a new resonance after the country's credit
   rating was downgraded this year and the situation in Europe has shown how
   debt can quickly become toxic.
   The National Party dominated the election, coming up just short of getting
   enough votes to govern alone. With most of the votes counted, the party
   was projected to win 60 of the 121 seats in Parliament, an increase of
   two. Key will look to some of the minor parties for support in forming a
   stable government.
   \"Tonight New Zealanders voted for a better future, and there will be a
   better future,\" Key said in his victory speech.
   The center-left Labour party, which had opposed asset sales, won just 27
   percent of the vote, meaning it will lose about nine of its 43 seats. Like
   National, it also promised to get the books in order aEUR\" but Labour
   planned to do it by introducing a capital gains tax and raising the age of
   retirement by two years, to 67.
   Phil Goff, Labour's leader, said the party was \"bloodied, but not
   defeated.\"
   \"It wasn't our time this time,\" he told supporters. The poor showing makes
   it likely Goff will soon step aside.
   Key plans to sell minority stakes in four government-owned energy
   companies and in Air New Zealand in order to raise an estimated 7 billion
   New Zealand dollars ($5.2 billion).
   The National Party's win could also open the door for more mineral
   exploration and offshore oil drilling. Labour had proposed a moratorium on
   deep-sea drilling after a cargo ship ran aground last month near the North
   Island port of Tauranga, spilling about 400 tons of fuel into the ocean
   and onto local beaches.
   Key's win will also likely continue the country's warming relationship
   with the United States. For a quarter-century, New Zealand's ban on
   nuclear warships caused a rift, particularly over defense. However, New
   Zealand's small troop presence in Afghanistan and a promise by the U.S. to
   send a contingent of Marines to New Zealand next year point to a thaw.
   The U.S. and New Zealand are also among nine Pacific countries negotiating
   a free trade deal in the region.
   The election was also marked by the unexpected return to Parliament of
   Winston Peters, the mercurial leader of the anti-immigration New Zealand
   First party, which has shored up support among older voters who approve of
   its generous policies for them.
   New Zealand First won about 7 percent of the vote, enough for eight seats,
   after getting shut out of the last election in 2008.
   The Green party, meanwhile, enjoyed its best showing ever, winning 11
   percent of the vote.
   But the election also spelled the near-demise of the conservative Act
   party, which won five seats in the last election but this time could
   manage just one. Act party leader Don Brash announced he would resign
   Sunday.
   National's campaign hinged on the personal popularity of Key, a former
   currency trader whose easygoing demeanor appeals to many. His image was
   placed on hundreds of National billboards.
   Key's common touch was reassuring to people when a powerful earthquake
   struck Christchurch last February, said Jennifer Lees-Marshment, a
   political studies lecturer at the University of Auckland. It also enabled
   him to share in their excitement in October when the country's national
   All Blacks team won the Rugby World Cup.
   Voters were also deciding whether to keep their electoral system, in which
   parties win parliamentary seats based on the proportion of votes they
   receive. Some wanted to return to a winner-takes-all format, although
   polls indicated most favored sticking with the current system.
   The final results of that measure won't be known for two weeks. In early
   results, however, about 54 percent of voters favored keeping the
   German-style proportional system.
","2011-11-28 08:04:59",1,"2012-07-29 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1069315_-eastasia-fwd-g3-new-zealand-nz-leader-wins-2nd-term-pledges.html","lena.bell@stratfor.com","mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com","eastasia@stratfor.com",""
1072269,"Re: Assange is off the hook...
","      a**I believe geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate
      phases.a**

   I think we should write a diary tomorrow -- barring anything truly
   important -- on why this dickhead is wrong.

   I volunteer.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
   To: \"Analysts\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:10:50 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   Think of this. He is saying he is dedicated to revealing the truth.
   However he will not reveal the truth if he is let off on rape charges.

   What a piece of work.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Date: Sun, 5 Dec 2010 22:05:28 -0600 (CST)
   To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Assange is off the hook...
   This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: a**I believe
      geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases.a**

   Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer saying
   how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files -- including names
   of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has a**been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information
      age.a**

   Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
   extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
   password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly endangering
   U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would it not then be
   possible to prosecute him for espionage?

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-12-06 06:17:01",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1072269_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,friedman@att.blackberry.net",""
1074383,"Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested
","   Fred,
    what would be the maximum punishment for the charges you listed? has
   there been any sources that has been killed because of wikileaks?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: \"nathan hughes\" <nathan.hughes@stratfor.com>, \"Analyst List\"
   <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, December 7, 2010 7:38:52 AM
   Subject: Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested

   Will take weeks for extradition, unless he waves the process.

   DOJ (Holder) won't seek prosecution on their own, but look for the GOP
   (Congress) to press for criminal prosecution.

   Be easy to indict.

   I would pursue Conspiracy and Political Terrorism charges and declassify
   the death of a source someone which I could link to Wiki.
    

   Nate Hughes wrote:
   > Other thought is that I kind of feel like a lot of people were coming
   > around to recognizing his astonishing douchebaggery and he was by this
   > point undermining himself and his organization. If he does get tied up
   > in the legal system, does he come out screaming all the louder? And if
   > he does somehow get imprisoned, does he have the potential in
   > incarceration to actually become the sort of inspirational,
   > martryr-like (forgive the euphamism) figure that he always imagined
   > himself to be in the free world?
   > ------------------------------------------------------------------------
   > *From: * Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   > *Date: *Tue, 7 Dec 2010 04:42:58 -0600 (CST)
   > *To: *Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
   > *ReplyTo: * Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   > *Subject: *Discussion- Assange Arrested
   >
   > We had the discussion below on Friday when it was first suggested that
   > Assange would be arrested.  Here's a bit more:
   >
   > London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
   > public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to
   > appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused
   > by two woman in Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed
   > through Interpol red notices, like this case, so this is no doubt
   > about trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release of government documents.
   > While it's possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term
   > viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of cables in the
   > short-term and governments will now be concerned about what the
   > organization may release in revenge.
   >
   > see discussion below.  (revenge = that encrypted 'security' file)
   >
   > ------------------------------------------------------------------------
   > *From: *\"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   > *To: *\"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   > *Sent: *Friday, December 3, 2010 10:23:51 AM
   > *Subject: *Re: [OS] UK/US/AUSTRALIA/CT- WikiLeaks back online, Assange
   > close        to arrest
   >
   > yes, most likely would not stop these.  but it could disrupt whatever
   > might be next.
   >
   > Also all this trouble with internet hosting could serve to slow down
   > this set of leaks.  And maybe a combination of wikileaks arrest and
   > server shutdowns could stop it.
   >
   > On 12/3/10 9:20 AM, Ben West wrote:
   >
   >     If Assange is running the show and his staff isn't as confident as
   >     he is, then arresting him now could very well stop the flow of
   >     cables. But all it takes is one person to keep it going - or just
   >     dump them all at once if it gets too dicey, and these files have
   >     been very widely distributed so far. I can't imagine anyone
   >     reclaiming all the documents now.
   >
   >
   >     On 12/3/2010 8:54 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:
   >
   >         yeah also remember there was an article by nytimes i think
   >         that alot of people on his staff were uncomfortable with the
   >         way things were playing out, so without him there they may
   >         loose nerve or come to their better senses
   >
   >         On 12/3/10 8:48 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
   >
   >             Yes, like Fred's source pointed out--arrest and trial
   >             would just be a political circus.  It would probably not
   >             disrupt wikileaks.  BUT, occasonally a leader makes an
   >             organization, and maybe no one as capable will be willing
   >             to fill his shoes.  Or at least, won't be able to get as
   >             much pubilicity for wikileaks.  As you also said, it could
   >             tarnish both Assange's and Wikileaks' repution.  That coul
   >             dserve to discredit and undermine the group.  Maybe people
   >             would be less inclined to leak to it, or the public would
   >             be less inclined to pay attention--or more importantly
   >             support wikileaks financially.  Though I admit the chance
   >             of this causing the public to pay less attention is
   >             minimal, and in fact would probably increase attention on
   >             the guy.
   >
   >             (though personally, getting a rapist off the street is
   >             getting a rapist off the street.  Also, his mom owns a
   >             puppet theater...)
   >
   >             On 12/3/10 8:38 AM, Ben West wrote:
   >
   >                 What would the overall significance of his arrest be?
   >                 It's likely that the files are backed up elsewhere and
   >                 that someone else could give the go-ahead for
   >                 releasing them (that could very well already be the
   >                 case) and if his back-ups are anything like Assange,
   >                 they would welcome the publicity that would come to
   >                 them by filling his shoes.
   >
   >                 If the British got custody of him, they could conduct
   >                 searches or evidence that would support rape charges
   >                 and, if they happened to find material regarding the
   >                 leaks, that could lead to new charges. But this has
   >                 been coming for a while, and if Assange was smart, he
   >                 would have turned over any really sensitive stuff by
   >                 now, which would decrease the likelihood of police
   >                 finding anything juicy.
   >
   >                 Seems to me that all this really does is tarnish his
   >                 reputation and make him look like scum. It provides
   >                 some public distraction from all the leaked documents,
   >                 but doesn't undermine their impact - just undermines
   >                 the character of the person who facilitated the leaks.
   >
   >                 any other thoughts?
   >
   >                 On 12/3/2010 7:40 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
   >
   >                     I may have sent this out before- Assange walking
   >                     out of a CNN interview.
   >
   >                     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lisa9XTRLb4
   >
   >                     just shows how far his head is up his ass.
   >
   >                     On 12/3/10 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
   >
   >                         looks like Assange is in the UK and they might
   >                         actually roll on him.
   >
   >                         On 12/3/10 7:31 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
   >
   >                             *OG source
   >                             *
   >                             Net closes on Assange: arrest by British
   >                             police expected in days*
   >                             By Mark Hughes and Jerome Taylor
   >                             Friday, 3 December 2010
   >                            
   http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/net-closes-on-assange-arrest-by-british-police-expected-in-days-2149805.html
   >
   >                             Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, is
   >                             expected to be arrested in the coming days
   >                             after Swedish prosecutors filed a new
   >                             warrant with British authorities.
   >
   >                             The Independent revealed yesterday that a
   >                             procedural error with the European Arrest
   >                             Warrant had delayed the arrest of the
   >                             39-year-old Australian, who is wanted in
   >                             Sweden over sexual allegations but has
   >                             been in England since October.
   >
   >                             Police in Gothenburg claim they have now
   >                             submitted a fresh warrant to the Serious
   >                             Organised Crime Agency. Soca is expected
   >                             to instruct Scotland Yard to arrest Mr
   >                             Assange and have him appear before an
   >                             extradition hearing a** although as of last
   >                             night the Metropolitan Police had yet to
   >                             receive the warrant.
   >
   >
   >                             Police sources have previously said that
   >                             they received a letter from Mr Assange's
   >                             UK-based lawyer, Mark Stephens, containing
   >                             information about how to contact Mr
   >                             Assange should they need to.
   >
   >                             Details of the new arrest warrant came as
   >                             a last-ditch attempt to have the
   >                             allegations against Mr Assange dropped
   >                             failed. Sweden's highest court upheld the
   >                             arrest order and refused to let him appeal
   >                             against a lower court's ruling.
   >
   >                             Last night, Mr Assange's family spoke of
   >                             their fears for his safety after
   >                             increasingly shrill statements from
   >                             American commentators who have called for
   >                             his assassination. His mother, Christine
   >                             Assange, said \"the forces that he's
   >                             challenging are too big\".
   >
   >                             The arrest warrant filed with Soca states
   >                             that he was wanted on suspicion of rape,
   >                             sexual molestation and unlawful coercion.
   >                             But Soca requested a new warrant. A
   >                             spokeswoman for the Swedish National
   >                             Police Board told the BBC that the
   >                             original one had been refused because it
   >                             listed only the maximum penalty for the
   >                             most serious crime alleged, rather than
   >                             for all of the crimes.
   >
   >                             When the arrest is made, Mr Assange will
   >                             be taken before an extradition hearing at
   >                             Westminster magistrates' court. If he
   >                             refuses to be extradited, a judge will
   >                             preside over an extradition hearing and
   >                             will rule whether he should be sent to
   >                             Sweden or discharged.
   >
   >                             Last night, Mr Stephens said he would
   >                             challenge any arrest in British courts.
   >                             \"The process in this case has been so
   >                             utterly irregular that the chances of a
   >                             valid arrest warrant being submitted to me
   >                             are very small,\" he said. Mr Stephens has
   >                             accused Swedish prosecutors of launching a
   >                             witch-hunt against his client, who
   >                             strongly denies the rape allegations and
   >                             says he is being smeared because of the
   >                             exposA(c)s published by his website.
   >
   >                             He has maintained that Swedish prosecutors
   >                             have yet to provide any evidence against
   >                             Mr Assange and have ignored his requests
   >                             to meet with them. He also expressed
   >                             concerns at the way the UK and Swedish
   >                             authorities were handling the case.
   >
   >                             \"I feel like I am sitting in the middle of
   >                             a surreal Swedish fairytale,\" he said.
   >                             \"The trolls keep threatening to come on
   >                             and keep making noises off stage. But at
   >                             the moment, no appearance from them.\"
   >
   >                             In an interview with an Australian
   >                             newspaper, Mr Assange's mother defended
   >                             her son and lambasted hawks in the US who
   >                             have called for his death.
   >
   >                             Ms Assange, who runs a puppet theatre in
   >                             Noosa, a Queensland beach resort, defended
   >                             her son's decision to publish thousands of
   >                             classified US documents on the website.
   >                             \"He sees what he's doing as doing a good
   >                             thing in the world a** fighting baddies, if
   >                             you like,\" she told Queensland's
   Courier-Mail.
   >
   >                             Ms Assange a** who does not even own a
   >                             computer a** described her son as a hero of
   >                             the internet. But she added that she
   >                             feared he had \"gotten too smart for
   >                             himself\", saying: \"I'm concerned it's
   >                             gotten too big and the forces that he's
   >                             challenging are too big.\" She did not want
   >                             him \"hunted down and jailed\".
   >
   >                             On 12/3/10 7:24 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
   >
   >                                 *WikiLeaks back online, Assange close
   >                                 to arrest*
   >
   >                                 Updated 2 hours 45 minutes ago
   >                                
   http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/03/3084384.htm
   >
   >                                 The WikiLeaks website is back online
   >                                 with a new Swiss address after its
   >                                 previous domain name was killed.
   >
   >                                 The whistleblower website's original
   >                                 domain host, EveryDNS.net, says it
   >                                 terminated its services because
   >                                 Wikileaks had been coming under
   >                                 \"massive\" cyber attacks.
   >
   >                                 The new address - wikileaks.ch - was
   >                                 put online six hours after the
   >                                 original site wikileaks.org was killed.
   >
   >                                 An internet trace of the new domain
   >                                 name suggests that the site itself is
   >                                 still hosted in Sweden and in France.
   >
   >                                 Web users accessing the wikileaks.ch
   >                                 address are directed to a page under
   >                                 the URL http://213.251.145.96/ which
   >                                 gives them access to the former site,
   >                                 including a massive trove of leaked US
   >                                 diplomatic traffic.
   >
   >                                 The WikiLeaks website released more
   >                                 than 250,000 secret US diplomatic
   >                                 cables this week, which has left
   >                                 governments around the world
   >                                 scrambling to deal with the fallout.
   >
   >                                 Meanwhile, British media reports
   >                                 Scotland Yard could arrest the site's
   >                                 founder Julian Assange within days.
   >
   >                                 Prosecutors in Sweden want to question
   >                                 Mr Assange over alleged sex crimes
   >                                 involving two women during a visit to
   >                                 Stockholm in August.
   >
   >                                 Mr Assange, who was born in Australia,
   >                                 has not been charged and he denies the
   >                                 allegations.
   >
   >                                 He reportedly avoided arrest this week
   >                                 because Swedish authorities had filled
   >                                 out an Interpol red notice incorrectly.
   >
   >                                 Britain's Independent newspaper
   >                                 reports that police know Mr Assange's
   >                                 whereabouts in England and are
   >                                 expected to arrest him in the coming
   days.
   >
   >                                 Mr Assange's Stockholm-based lawyer
   >                                 Bjoern Hurtig says he will fight his
   >                                 client's extradition to Sweden in the
   >                                 event of his arrest.
   >
   >                                 \"Together with my British colleague
   >                                 Mark Stephens and international
   >                                 experts, we will fight the extradition
   >                                 warrants,\" he said.
   >
   >                                 A WikiLeaks spokesman says Mr Assange
   >                                 has to remain out of the public eye
   >                                 because he is facing assassination
   >                                 threats following the whistleblowing
   >                                 website's publication of the secret
   >                                 cables.
   >
   >                                 Several US senators have also called
   >                                 for him to be charged with espionage.
   >
   >                                 Senator Dianne Feinstein says the leak
   >                                 is a serious breach of national
   >                                 security and action must be taken.
   >
   >                                 \"We have reviewed the espionage
   >                                 statutes and we believe it qualifies,\"
   >                                 she said.
   >
   >                                 \"That this, allowed to be carried out,
   >                                 incapacitates this nation to carry out
   >                                 business.\"
   >                                 --
   >
   >                                 Sean Noonan
   >
   >                                 Tactical Analyst
   >
   >                                 Office: +1 512-279-9479
   >
   >                                 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   >
   >                                 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   >
   >                                 www.stratfor.com
   >
   >
   >                             --
   >
   >                             Sean Noonan
   >
   >                             Tactical Analyst
   >
   >                             Office: +1 512-279-9479
   >
   >                             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   >
   >                             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   >
   >                             www.stratfor.com
   >
   >
   >                         --
   >
   >                         Sean Noonan
   >
   >                         Tactical Analyst
   >
   >                         Office: +1 512-279-9479
   >
   >                         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   >
   >                         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   >
   >                         www.stratfor.com
   >
   >
   >                     --
   >
   >                     Sean Noonan
   >
   >                     Tactical Analyst
   >
   >                     Office: +1 512-279-9479
   >
   >                     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   >
   >                     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   >
   >                     www.stratfor.com
   >
   >
   >                 --
   >                 Ben West
   >                 Tactical Analyst
   >                 STRATFOR
   >                 Austin, TX
   >                          
   >
   >
   >             --
   >
   >             Sean Noonan
   >
   >             Tactical Analyst
   >
   >             Office: +1 512-279-9479
   >
   >             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   >
   >             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   >
   >             www.stratfor.com
   >
   >
   >         --
   >         Michael Wilson
   >         Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   >         Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
   >         Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
   >
   >              
   >
   >
   >     --
   >     Ben West
   >     Tactical Analyst
   >     STRATFOR
   >     Austin, TX
   >        
   >
   >
   > --
   >
   > Sean Noonan
   >
   > Tactical Analyst
   >
   > Office: +1 512-279-9479
   >
   > Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   >
   > Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   >
   > www.stratfor.com
   >
   >
   >
   > --
   > Sean Noonan
   > Tactical Analyst
   > Office: +1 512-279-9479
   > Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   > Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   > www.stratfor.com
   >
   >
","2010-12-07 14:42:51",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1074383_re-discussion-assange-arrested-.html","nicolas.miller@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1074401,"RE: USE ME Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested
","    

   WikiLeaks has already released its most damaging documents-- its attempt
   to get public attention-- and they haven't amounted to much.  This new
   file likely contains no more damaging information, but instead is full of
   names.  The names of sources who will be at risk and those of diplomats,
   military or intelligence officers who could lose their jobs. 

    

   --And if they release these names, they come off looking like total jerks
   who don't care about the lives and welfare of innocent people and this
   will further serve to alienate global netizens, and turn public opinion
   further against Wikileaks.

    

    

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Sean Noonan
   Sent: Tuesday, December 07, 2010 8:44 AM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: USE ME Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested

    

   *Here's my full set of thoughts.  This may be a little too informal for
   our regular articles.  Hopefully this addresses the questions that have
   already come up. 

   London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and public
   spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to appear in a
   court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused by two woman in
   Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed through Interpol red
   notices, like this case, so this is no doubt about trying to disrupt
   WikiLeaks release of government documents.  While it's possible that
   Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it
   will not stop the release of cables in the short-term and governments will
   now be concerned about what the organization may release in revenge.

   Leadership is extremely important in non-governmental organizations that
   have not institutionalized.  From terrorist grous  to charities [LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923_death_top_indonesian_militant],
   these organizations often ebb and flow along with their founders. 
   WikiLeaks is a new organization that has a created a novel method for an
   old practice- leaking confidential government information in an attempt to
   influence politics.  Leaking will not go away with Assange's arrest, but
   WikiLeaks might. 

   WikiLeaks created itself with Assange as the only public face-- he leads
   supports, drives donations, and faces criticism.  This has made many in
   the organization unhappy, and some have left it after disagreeing with
   him.  If Assange were to face charges in Sweden for sexual assault or new
   charges in the UK or US and was found guilty, WikiLeaks would still need
   someone to operate it.  Assange may have someone waiting in the wings, but
   that is not evident. 

   WikiLeaks has also suffered logistically and as a brand.  As national
   governments put pressure on its infrastructure, its websites have been
   shut and most importantly its main source of funding- PayPal- has closed
   WikiLeaks account.  With such pressure and government monitoring, future
   leakers may be too afraid of getting intercepted and go elsewhere. 
   Moreover, this new set of documents have not worked out like Assange
   expected- the public is not angry at the State Department, but many are
   angry at Assange and his organization. 

   Assange's arrest won't stop the continued leaks of this large batch of US
   State Department cables.  It also won't shut down WikiLeaks, which still
   maintains its website and the ability to collect information from
   leakers.  So in the short-term, WikiLeaks will maintain.  The question
   remains if it has created a truly sustainable institutions-- one where
   leaders are replacable, members can adapt to changing circumstance, and
   representatives can aid and inspire new leakers. 

   If Asange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
   coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, will he
   be able to maintain WikiLeaks image?  That is hard to say, but growing
   public criticism of him indicates his inability to grow WikiLeaks support
   base.  Western govrenments also fear whatever is contained in his ___
   file, for which he threatens to release an encryption key if something
   happens to him.  WikiLeaks has already released its most damaging
   documents-- its attempt to get public attention-- and they haven't
   amounted to much.  This new file likely contains no more damaging
   information, but instead is full of names.  The names of sources who will
   be at risk and those of diplomats, military or intelligence officers who
   could lose their jobs. 

   WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations do--the
   ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
   circumstances.  Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR cannot
   speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he isn't,
   WikiLeaks will struggle to survive. 

   On 12/7/10 6:36 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

   I would imagine the most politically \"exciting\" stuff has been published
   (much of which we already knew) but some of the less sexy things may be
   more damaging when released or released uncensored b/c it burns sources
   and people's careers (a few people have already lost their jobs in western
   countries...what about sources in less democratic countries)

   On 12/7/10 5:18 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

   I am not clear about your argument in the last line. Why this arrest could
   disrupt long-term viability of Wikileaks? I would say the opposite, that
   there might be short-term disruptions (latest release was two days ago)
   but Wikileaks will work in the long-term. They already have over 250K
   documents and if they release them at the same pace, Wikileaks will have
   very long-term viability. Also, Ben's point below about possibly backed up
   documents is worth considering. 

    

   One more question. How do we now that Wikileaks has more sensitive
   information that governments should be concerned about as a revenge?
   Recall George's initial argument that they probably published most
   sensitive information at the very beginning to draw attention. 

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, December 7, 2010 12:42:49 PM
   Subject: Discussion- Assange Arrested

   We had the discussion below on Friday when it was first suggested that
   Assange would be arrested.  Here's a bit more:

   London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and public
   spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.  He is due to appear in a
   court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape, accused by two woman in
   Sweden.  Charges of sexual assault rarely are passed through Interpol red
   notices, like this case, so this is no doubt about trying to disrupt
   WikiLeaks release of government documents.  While it's possible that
   Assange's arrest could disrupt the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it
   will not stop the release of cables in the short-term and governments will
   now be concerned about what the organization may release in revenge.

   see discussion below.  (revenge = that encrypted 'security' file)

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Friday, December 3, 2010 10:23:51 AM
   Subject: Re: [OS] UK/US/AUSTRALIA/CT- WikiLeaks back online, Assange
   close        to arrest

   yes, most likely would not stop these.  but it could disrupt whatever
   might be next. 

   Also all this trouble with internet hosting could serve to slow down this
   set of leaks.  And maybe a combination of wikileaks arrest and server
   shutdowns could stop it. 

   On 12/3/10 9:20 AM, Ben West wrote:

   If Assange is running the show and his staff isn't as confident as he is,
   then arresting him now could very well stop the flow of cables. But all it
   takes is one person to keep it going - or just dump them all at once if it
   gets too dicey, and these files have been very widely distributed so far.
   I can't imagine anyone reclaiming all the documents now.

   On 12/3/2010 8:54 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

   yeah also remember there was an article by nytimes i think that alot of
   people on his staff were uncomfortable with the way things were playing
   out, so without him there they may loose nerve or come to their better
   senses

   On 12/3/10 8:48 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

   Yes, like Fred's source pointed out--arrest and trial would just be a
   political circus.  It would probably not disrupt wikileaks.  BUT,
   occasonally a leader makes an organization, and maybe no one as capable
   will be willing to fill his shoes.  Or at least, won't be able to get as
   much pubilicity for wikileaks.  As you also said, it could tarnish both
   Assange's and Wikileaks' repution.  That coul dserve to discredit and
   undermine the group.  Maybe people would be less inclined to leak to it,
   or the public would be less inclined to pay attention--or more importantly
   support wikileaks financially.  Though I admit the chance of this causing
   the public to pay less attention is minimal, and in fact would probably
   increase attention on the guy. 

   (though personally, getting a rapist off the street is getting a rapist
   off the street.  Also, his mom owns a puppet theater...)

   On 12/3/10 8:38 AM, Ben West wrote:

   What would the overall significance of his arrest be? It's likely that the
   files are backed up elsewhere and that someone else could give the
   go-ahead for releasing them (that could very well already be the case) and
   if his back-ups are anything like Assange, they would welcome the
   publicity that would come to them by filling his shoes.

   If the British got custody of him, they could conduct searches or evidence
   that would support rape charges and, if they happened to find material
   regarding the leaks, that could lead to new charges. But this has been
   coming for a while, and if Assange was smart, he would have turned over
   any really sensitive stuff by now, which would decrease the likelihood of
   police finding anything juicy.

   Seems to me that all this really does is tarnish his reputation and make
   him look like scum. It provides some public distraction from all the
   leaked documents, but doesn't undermine their impact - just undermines the
   character of the person who facilitated the leaks.

   any other thoughts?

   On 12/3/2010 7:40 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

   I may have sent this out before- Assange walking out of a CNN interview.

   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lisa9XTRLb4

   just shows how far his head is up his ass. 

   On 12/3/10 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

   looks like Assange is in the UK and they might actually roll on him.

   On 12/3/10 7:31 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

   *OG source
   Net closes on Assange: arrest by British police expected in days
   By Mark Hughes and Jerome Taylor
   Friday, 3 December 2010
   http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/net-closes-on-assange-arrest-by-british-police-expected-in-days-2149805.html

   Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, is expected to be arrested in the
   coming days after Swedish prosecutors filed a new warrant with British
   authorities.

   The Independent revealed yesterday that a procedural error with the
   European Arrest Warrant had delayed the arrest of the 39-year-old
   Australian, who is wanted in Sweden over sexual allegations but has been
   in England since October.

   Police in Gothenburg claim they have now submitted a fresh warrant to the
   Serious Organised Crime Agency. Soca is expected to instruct Scotland Yard
   to arrest Mr Assange and have him appear before an extradition hearing -
   although as of last night the Metropolitan Police had yet to receive the
   warrant.

   Police sources have previously said that they received a letter from Mr
   Assange's UK-based lawyer, Mark Stephens, containing information about how
   to contact Mr Assange should they need to.

   Details of the new arrest warrant came as a last-ditch attempt to have the
   allegations against Mr Assange dropped failed. Sweden's highest court
   upheld the arrest order and refused to let him appeal against a lower
   court's ruling.

   Last night, Mr Assange's family spoke of their fears for his safety after
   increasingly shrill statements from American commentators who have called
   for his assassination. His mother, Christine Assange, said \"the forces
   that he's challenging are too big\".

   The arrest warrant filed with Soca states that he was wanted on suspicion
   of rape, sexual molestation and unlawful coercion. But Soca requested a
   new warrant. A spokeswoman for the Swedish National Police Board told the
   BBC that the original one had been refused because it listed only the
   maximum penalty for the most serious crime alleged, rather than for all of
   the crimes.

   When the arrest is made, Mr Assange will be taken before an extradition
   hearing at Westminster magistrates' court. If he refuses to be extradited,
   a judge will preside over an extradition hearing and will rule whether he
   should be sent to Sweden or discharged.

   Last night, Mr Stephens said he would challenge any arrest in British
   courts. \"The process in this case has been so utterly irregular that the
   chances of a valid arrest warrant being submitted to me are very small,\"
   he said. Mr Stephens has accused Swedish prosecutors of launching a
   witch-hunt against his client, who strongly denies the rape allegations
   and says he is being smeared because of the exposes published by his
   website.

   He has maintained that Swedish prosecutors have yet to provide any
   evidence against Mr Assange and have ignored his requests to meet with
   them. He also expressed concerns at the way the UK and Swedish authorities
   were handling the case.

   \"I feel like I am sitting in the middle of a surreal Swedish fairytale,\"
   he said. \"The trolls keep threatening to come on and keep making noises
   off stage. But at the moment, no appearance from them.\"

   In an interview with an Australian newspaper, Mr Assange's mother defended
   her son and lambasted hawks in the US who have called for his death.

   Ms Assange, who runs a puppet theatre in Noosa, a Queensland beach resort,
   defended her son's decision to publish thousands of classified US
   documents on the website. \"He sees what he's doing as doing a good thing
   in the world - fighting baddies, if you like,\" she told Queensland's
   Courier-Mail.

   Ms Assange - who does not even own a computer - described her son as a
   hero of the internet. But she added that she feared he had \"gotten too
   smart for himself\", saying: \"I'm concerned it's gotten too big and the
   forces that he's challenging are too big.\" She did not want him \"hunted
   down and jailed\".

   On 12/3/10 7:24 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

   WikiLeaks back online, Assange close to arrest

   Updated 2 hours 45 minutes ago
   http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/03/3084384.htm

   The WikiLeaks website is back online with a new Swiss address after its
   previous domain name was killed.

   The whistleblower website's original domain host, EveryDNS.net, says it
   terminated its services because Wikileaks had been coming under \"massive\"
   cyber attacks.

   The new address - wikileaks.ch - was put online six hours after the
   original site wikileaks.org was killed.

   An internet trace of the new domain name suggests that the site itself is
   still hosted in Sweden and in France.

   Web users accessing the wikileaks.ch address are directed to a page under
   the URL http://213.251.145.96/ which gives them access to the former site,
   including a massive trove of leaked US diplomatic traffic.

   The WikiLeaks website released more than 250,000 secret US diplomatic
   cables this week, which has left governments around the world scrambling
   to deal with the fallout.

   Meanwhile, British media reports Scotland Yard could arrest the site's
   founder Julian Assange within days.

   Prosecutors in Sweden want to question Mr Assange over alleged sex crimes
   involving two women during a visit to Stockholm in August.

   Mr Assange, who was born in Australia, has not been charged and he denies
   the allegations.

   He reportedly avoided arrest this week because Swedish authorities had
   filled out an Interpol red notice incorrectly.

   Britain's Independent newspaper reports that police know Mr Assange's
   whereabouts in England and are expected to arrest him in the coming days.

   Mr Assange's Stockholm-based lawyer Bjoern Hurtig says he will fight his
   client's extradition to Sweden in the event of his arrest.

   \"Together with my British colleague Mark Stephens and international
   experts, we will fight the extradition warrants,\" he said.

   A WikiLeaks spokesman says Mr Assange has to remain out of the public eye
   because he is facing assassination threats following the whistleblowing
   website's publication of the secret cables.

   Several US senators have also called for him to be charged with espionage.

   Senator Dianne Feinstein says the leak is a serious breach of national
   security and action must be taken.

   \"We have reviewed the espionage statutes and we believe it qualifies,\" she
   said.

   \"That this, allowed to be carried out, incapacitates this nation to carry
   out business.\"

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com

    

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com

    

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com

    

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com

    

 --

 Ben West

 Tactical Analyst

 STRATFOR

 Austin, TX

    

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com

    

 --

 Michael Wilson

 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR

 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

  

    

 --

 Ben West

 Tactical Analyst

 STRATFOR

 Austin, TX

    

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   Office: +1 512-279-9479
   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com

 --

 Michael Wilson

 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR

 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

  

    

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-07 14:54:03",1,"2012-02-29 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1074401_re-use-me-re-discussion-assange-arrested-.html","scott.stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1075446,"Re: [Eurasia] Monti, a government without politicians
","   as a rule academics do very badly in the real world -- ive more confidence
   in the bankers

   regardless, this should be fun to watch

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Adriano Bosoni\" <adriano.bosoni@stratfor.com>
   To: \"EurAsia AOR\" <eurasia@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, November 16, 2011 3:46:31 PM
   Subject: [Eurasia] Monti, a government without politicians

   This is an interesting profile of the new Monti cabinet... only the second
   time in Italian history when a technical government is 100%
   politician-free (the previous one being the Dini government of 95-96). The
   press is already calling Monti \"The Professor\" (Prodi has the same
   nickname)... I'm afraid the press is creating excessive hype around the
   new government...

   Monti, a government without politicians
   November 16, 2011

   http://www3.lastampa.it/politica/sezioni/articolo/lstp/430140/

   A government of professors, rectors, officials, bankers. A government of
   few women (only three, although in leading roles), gray hair (63 years
   average age). And with no politicians.

   The professor sends two messages: one to markets on the \"seriousness\" and
   \"quality\" of his team, the other to the parties. Monti ensures that the
   solidity of its executive is not challenged by the absence of politicians,
   but rather is enhanced precisely because there would be \"embarrassment\" by
   their presence.

   After reading the composition of the Executive (which sees himself leading
   Economic Affairs), the Professor stresses that the guiding star of his
   government will be a quest to ensure growth. \"The reliance on one person
   of the Ministry of Economic Development and Infrastructure - says of the
   appointment of Corrado Passera - corresponds to a logic that I want to
   emphasize: the initiatives for economic growth and development will be at
   the center of my government.\"

   Former Commissioner knows that the greatest obstacles will be in the
   Parliament. Thus he is showing his best diplomatic skills. First Monti
   thanks the political and social forces \"for the partnership had during the
   consultations.\" Then, his predecessor, Silvio Berlusconi to whom he sends
   \"cordial greetings\" with \"respect and attention to the work he has done.\"

   The Monti government, as well as having cut the number of Ministers (now
   16, Berlusconi had 23) and being born in record time (67 hours after
   receiving President Napolitano's request), stands to have a 100% technical
   profile. Palazzo Chigi will be full of specialists, recruited in
   university classrooms and offices of the ministries, not because of their
   political cloak but only for their expertise.

   A military man goes to defense, a former prefect of the Interior, an
   ambassador for Foreign Affairs, not to mention Monti taking the Economy
   Ministry: this is the impression that the new PM wanted to give his team,
   in which, after the push and pull of Letta and Amato, in the end they have
   not even entered as representatives of their party.

   But the Executive will not be weakened: \"The armor of this government
   depends on our ability to act and to explain the significance of their
   actions: this is the armor that I will try with my ministers\".

 --
 Adriano Bosoni - ADP
","2011-11-17 14:24:57",1,"2012-03-02 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1075446_re-eurasia-monti-a-government-without-politicians-.html","peter.zeihan@stratfor.com","mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com","eurasia@stratfor.com",""
1075760,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA - protest update
","   [LG: let's rep this]

   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Within the Prosecutor General
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   HANDLER: Lauren

   As I've been relaying, everyone is on high alert. The streets are filled
   with militia, interior forces & riot police. The Europeysky shopping mall
   and Kievsky rail station are closed -- the two locations of the proposed
   protests. All main squares in the city are closed. Cars are being diverted
   away from all main squares and the mall. From the extremists skinhead and
   Muslim websites, their so-called plans are to try to clash once the sun
   goes down, so 8 or 9 pm. But we are locking the city down -- no small feat
   for a city like Moscow.

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-15 11:48:22",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1075760_insight-russia-protest-update-.html","colibasanu@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1078390,"MORE Re: INSIGHT - CN65 Re: [Fwd: [OS] AUSTRALIA/MINING -Australia
	treasurer	rules out retreat over mining tax]
","   I asked the source if it really looks like Rudd and his party would lose
   to the LNP what would be the change that they backtrack on the tax, to
   which he responds:  Little.  They've dug themselves such an enormous hole
   (if you forgive the irony about the pun) that if they backtrack they will
   be even worse off.  It was backtracking on emissions trading which caused
   their problems originally.

   Jennifer Richmond wrote:

     Just an opinion, of course, from the opposition.

     SOURCE: CN65
     ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
     natural resources
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator.  Source is 
     well-connected politically, militarily and economically.  He has become
     a
     private businessman helping foreign companies with M&As
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
     DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

     You need to understand that the Treasurer is (a) not terribly smart, and
     (b) the most appalling grub you have ever met.  He has made his
     political career by smear and innuendo against anyone and anything in
     his way.  Not a terribly satisfactory individual.
     I am, as a matter of interest, campaign manager for the LNP in his seat.
      It iwll be a tough ask, though, because of the redistribution.

       Thought you would be interested.

       -------- Original Message --------

        Subject: [OS] AUSTRALIA/MINING -Australia treasurer rules out retreat 
                 over mining tax                                              
           Date: Thu, 27 May 2010 10:28:41 -0500                              
           From: Michael Wilson <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>                 
       Reply-To: The OS List <os@stratfor.com>                                
             To: os >> The OS List <os@stratfor.com>                          

       Australia treasurer rules out retreat over mining tax
        27 May 2010 - 09H54 
       http://www.france24.com/en/20100527-australia-treasurer-rules-out-retreat-over-mining-tax

       AFP - The architect of Australia's controversial new resources tax
       rejected any weakening of the proposal Thursday, as pension funds
       warned miners that their vocal opposition was only hurting share
       prices.

       Treasury secretary Ken Henry also denied the planned 40 percent \"super
       tax\" on mining profits would deter investment or raise Australia's
       sovereign risk, following repeated warnings by industry giants such as
       Rio Tinto.

       There is \"a lot of colour in the debate at the moment,\" Henry, who
       unveiled the tax earlier this month, told the Senate.

       \"An enormous amount has been said by mining executives and
       commentators recently about the impact of the resource super profits
       tax on mining investment.

       \"But I can say to you that today, we remain very confident of our
       forecasts for mining investment included in the budget.\"

       The government proposes updating the current royalties system with a
       40 percent tax on profits over six percent, to claim a greater share
       of an Asian-driven mining boom tipped to last decades.

       Mining companies believe the tax is too heavy and will drive away
       investment and jobs, derailing Australia's economic recovery, which
       has been exceptional by developed-world standards. Several firms have
       put projects on hold.

       The tax has prompted a concerted industry campaign, in turn dismissed
       as scare tactics by the government, including TV and newspaper adverts
       and a series of public warnings.

       On Thursday, a body representing Australia's mandatory pensions
       industry urged the miners to tone down their \"overtly political\"
       rhetoric, partly blaming the resources industry for a sudden slump in
       share prices and fund values.

       \"(This) very well resourced and very consistent public relations and
       media campaign is possibly causing greater uncertainty and affecting
       share prices of major resources companies, in the context of some
       clearly very concerning news which continues to arrive out of Europe,\"
       said Industry Super Network chief David Whitely.

       \"I think the expectation that industry super (superannuation) funds
       would have on the major miners and the resources sector, as
       shareholders in these companies, is that they would cease this quite
       clear and overtly political campaign,\" Whitely told ABC Radio.

       Meanwhile Henry tempered expectations that the tax's threshold might
       be raised from six to 12 percent, after Treasurer Wayne Swan said he
       was \"not ruling any of these things in or out\" during consultations
       with miners.

       \"I am not aware of any decisions having been taken to make fundamental
       changes to the tax plan,\" Henry said.

       He also rejected suggestions that the mining industry, which accounts
       for some 40 percent of Australia's exports by value, had saved the
       country from recession during last year's global downturn.

       \"These statements are not supported by the facts,\" said Henry, noting
       that the sector shed 15 percent of its jobs in 2009.

       \"Had every industry in Australia behaved in the same way, our
       unemployment rate would have increased from 4.6 percent to 19 percent
       in six months,\" he added.

       A group of prominent Australian economists and academics issued a
       public letter this week backing Henry's tax and dismissing the
       industry campaign against it as \"misinformation\".

       But Citi analysts Thursday warned that uncertainty around the tax
       could delay some projects by up to 12 months and permanently scuttle
       others, hitting government plans to return the budget to surplus
       within three years.

       -- Dow Jones Newswires contributed to this report --
       Click here to find out more!

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Watchofficer
 STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-05-28 04:33:23",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1078390_more-re-insight-cn65-re-fwd-os-australia-mining-australia.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1078864,"Re: WikiLeaks & Julian Assange
","   Mostly its a revelation to the ignorant. If you pay little attention to
   foreign affairs but suddenly focused on this because of media attention,
   you might think some of this is significant. If your well versed, its the
   unimportant scraps of conversations. This is the same as with the iraqi
   and afghan reports. Nothing was of significance there either.

   Woodward and bernstein were fed their story by lent and the fbi. They
   weren't investigators. They were stenographers. This isn't investigation
   either. Its more like dumpster diving and only getting the top layer of
   the garbage and thinking it was gold.

   J

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Rodger Baker\" <rbaker@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2010 19:34:54 -0600 (CST)
   To: Colin Chapman<chapman@stratfor.com>; <rbaker@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: rbaker@stratfor.com, Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Analysts<analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: WikiLeaks & Julian Assange
   My point is that this isn't a taRgeted look at anything. It is a
   completely random selection of material, not even released in a way to
   tell a narrative. There is a signicant difference between this and
   specific leaks of targeted information.

   I'm not arguing tjhat rich people aren't helping spread this. And maybe
   some journalists will eventually use some if this to point them into the
   direection of some important investigation.

   But I have a hard time seeing these releases as some sort of journalistic
   tour du force. And reception is less changing politics than voyeuristic
   pleasure.

   --
   Sent via BlackBerry from Cingular Wireless

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Colin Chapman <chapman@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2010 19:04:11 -0600 (CST)
   To: <rbaker@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: WikiLeaks & Julian Assange
   I did make the point about context and also said it is precisely because
   investigative journalism has died in much of the press that WL can
   flourish. (Along with many other internet operations).  And actually some
   of the stuff I have seen on WL had already been leaked to the press.
    WikiLeaks is raw, but I am not sure publication of a confidential
   document in this form and passed over on a memory stick is any different
   from a printed document handed over by a public official or whistleblower
   to a journalist, or indeed to a private intelligence company. Breaches of
   security are by the providers, not the messengers. As to spin, I disagree.
   Spinning interferes with truth. Rio Tinto was spinning that it sought
   leniency from the Chinese for Stern Hu. All the time it was providing
   secret information on his finances to the Chinese government, thereby
   condemning him to a more serious sentence. The US state department
   pretended Rudd was a great friend of the US (as indeed he was) while at
   the same time working with a leading conspirator to get rid of him. That
   these things happen it is not surprising, but when we find out about them
   they should be published not in 50 years time when a historian decides to
   write a book, but now
   On 11/12/2010, at 10:46 AM, Rodger Baker wrote:

     Much of the discussion today wasn't about assange, but about these
     wiki-supporting internet vigilantes, who sit around and mess with vidsa
     and mastercard web services. These sorts are geeks in their nom's
     basement.

     But even if funded, they do nothing to offer understanding, context,
     explanation of the material. It is a data dump. Well funded, perhaps,
     but with little value added.

     As for sick of spindoctors, I don't know. They are just spinning things
     in anothjer direction. Politically motivated, yes. Cutting through spin?
     No way. Just spinning another direction.

     As for woodward, the wiki folks aren't investigative journalists, just
     thieves. They didn't do any work, just downloaded a memory stick if
     stolen documents. 

     -- 
     Sent via BlackBerry from Cingular Wireless

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Marko Papic <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
     Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2010 16:50:43 -0600 (CST)
     To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>; chapman<chapman@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: WikiLeaks & Julian Assange
     Nor, in my opinion, are they, as Marko suggests, young men destined for
     greatness.

     I did not say that. I said that they are young men DISILLUSIONED by
     greatness and ego. 

     BIG difference.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Colin Chapman\" <chapman@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Friday, December 10, 2010 4:46:20 PM
     Subject: WikiLeaks & Julian Assange

     It is wrong to characterise the WikiLeaks leaders as geeks operating
     from Mum's basement.
     Nor, in my opinion, are they, as Marko suggests, young men destined for
     greatness.
     That may be the way it reads inside America, but outside the US they are
     the Woodsteins of the internet age. They are well funded, and their
     patrons are those, who - like the voters in recent elections in Britain,
     US and Australia - who are sick of spin doctors and politicians telling
     lies. (In that sense they are like Stratfor!). The weakness is that WL
     stuff is raw and unprocessed, often not in context. 
     One of the participants in the WikiLeaks publishing operation has today
      described a visit by their correspondent to the WikiLeaks HQ in rural
     England. It's not Mum's basement, but a Georgian mansion, obviously
     donated by a generous benefactor. Many of these benefactors are
     broadcasters and rich lawyers, such as Geoffrey Robinson, who are strong
     advocates of press freedom. By its description it sounds to me as if it
     this place is in Norfolk, where my son lives, about 120 miles north east
     of London. The correspondent makes it clear that the people around
     Assange were not geeks.
     It is worth reading this article, found at 

     http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/how-i-met-julian-assange-and-secured-the-american-embassy-cables-20101210-18sxj.html

     This isn't to say that much of their stuff is either important, or
     relevant in the world of geopolitics. But some of the recent material
     is. The duplicity of Rio Tinto in feeding the Chinese secretly  data
     about its staff, including Stern HU, while simultaneously pleading for
     his release, and the many other commercial revelations are examples. 
     Finally, surely the approach here is to treat each 'leak' on its merits
     as an event, either worthy of attention or not, rather than the product
     of anarchists. If newspapers were doing their job properly,if they were
     following the edict of the great London Times editor Thomas Delane that
     'the duty of the press is disclosure' , there would be little space for
     Wikileaks. Much of the media, particularly in metropolitan America, has
     resigned from investigative journalism, preferring instead to feed off
     the corporate and government spin doctors for serious news, and publish
     tedious 'lifestyle' sections. 

     Colin

     -- 
     Marko Papic

     STRATFOR Analyst 
     C: + 1-512-905-3091
     marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-12-11 02:44:04",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1078864_re-wikileaks-and-julian-assange-.html","friedman@att.blackberry.net","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","rbaker@stratfor.com,analysts@stratfor.com,chapman@stratfor.com",""
1079543,"STRATFOR Reader Response - Taking Stock of WikiLeaks
","   Jack,

   I don't think there's much of a doubt that there is some legitimacy to
   suggestions that WikiLeaks could have been better with redaction. With the
   diplomatic cables especially, there has absolutely been a fallout with
   cooperative diplomatic persons being outed.

   But in the case of Afghanistan, we take a different view. The Taliban is a
   adept and aware adversary. And it is a grassroots phenomenon with
   considerable local support. These guys watch what U.S. troops do and where
   they go extraordinarily closely. So the idea that they need to read U.S.
   reports to figure out who is working with the Americans simply does not
   ring true to us.

   Are the leaks ideal or helpful? Of course not. But the claims of their
   danger seem largely overblown to us.

   We appreciate your question and close readership.

   Cheers,

   Nate
   --
   Nathan Hughes
   Director
   Military Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-15 22:17:42",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1079543_stratfor-reader-response-taking-stock-of-wikileaks-.html","hughes@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","jackk@chicagobancorp.com",""
1084229,"Espionage Act Presents Challenges for WikiLeaks Indictment
","   Comments from the experts.  As I said before, I still don't think the
   Supreme Court has set a clear line on this issue.  Note Holder's statement
   too--suggests Fred's info is true that they may try to prosecute Assange
   under other laws. 
   Espionage Act Presents Challenges for WikiLeaks Indictment
   Sweeping Anti-Spying Law 'Makes Felons of Us All,' Legal Expert Says
   http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wikileaks-indictment-us-charge-julian-assange-espionage-act/story?id=12369173
   29 comments
   By DEVIN DWYER
   Dec. 13, 2010

   As the U.S. Justice Department crafts a legal case against WikiLeaks'
   Julian Assange for the publication of thousands of secret government
   cables, legal experts are warning that any indictment under the Espionage
   Act may also implicate the news media -- and Americans who've read the
   cables or shared them with their friends.

   The World War I-era law is broadly written and criminalizes anyone who
   possesses or transmits any \"information relating to the national defense\"
   which an individual has \"reason to believe could be used to the injury of
   the United States or to the advantage of any foreign nation.\"

   If WikiLeaks, which allegedly did not steal the documents, is guilty of
   espionage for printing them, so too might be the New York Times, U.K.'s
   The Guardian, and Germany's Der Spiegel, which have replicated and
   disseminated the materials worldwide, some experts say.

   Individual users of Twitter and Facebook and other social media who spread
   links to the documents far and wide, or even discussed the contents in
   public, could also technically be liable.

   \"One of the flaws in the Espionage Act is that it draws no distinction
   between the leaker or the spy and the recipient of the information, no
   matter how far downstream the recipient is,\" said American University law
   professor Stephen Vladeck, an expert in national security law.

   \"There's no difference in the statute between Assange and someone at home
   who opens up something that Assange has posted on his website knowing that
   it's classified,\" he said.

   The sweeping and vague nature of the law may explain why the federal
   government recently warned all employees not to read WikiLeaks' cables or
   any news reports pertaining to them because the information is still
   classified.

   Several universities around the country have also warned students who
   might seek careers with the federal government not to post links to
   WikiLeaks content or discuss the cables publicly through social media.

   \" [The Espionage Act] criminalizes all casual discussions of such
   disclosures by persons not authorized to receive them to other persons not
   authorized to receive them... in other words, all tweets sending around
   those countless news stories, all blogging on them, and all dinner party
   conversations about their contents,\" wrote Benjamin Wittes, a legal
   analyst with the Brookings Institution, on the blog LawFare.

   \"Taken at its word, the Espionage Act makes felons of us all,\" he said.

  Feds Weigh Approaches to Charging Assange

   Vladeck said the complexity of the situation may explain why the U.S.
   government and Attorney General Eric Holder have not yet charged Assange
   with a crime.

   Still, Jennifer Robinson, one of Assange's attorneys, told ABC News last
   week that she's hearing an indictment under the Espionage Act could be
   imminent.

   \"Our position of course is that we don't believe it applies to Mr. Assange
   and that in any event he's entitled to First Amendment protection as
   publisher of Wikileaks and any prosecution under the Espionage Act would
   in my view be unconstitutional and puts at risk all media organizations in
   the U.S.,\" Robinson said.

   Only once in the history of the Espionage Act has the U.S. government
   brought a case against someone other than the thief of secret information.
   That prosecution failed, Vladeck said.

   But Holder cautioned reporters last week that the Espionage Act isn't the
   only law under which the Justice Department might charge Assange.

   \"I don't want to get into specifics here, but people would have a
   misimpression if the only statute you think that we are looking at is the
   Espionage Act,\" he said. \"That is certainly something that might play a
   role, but there are other statutes, other tools that we have at our
   disposal.\"

   Experts say Assange could also be charged with trafficking in stolen
   government property or conspiracy, if investigators can demonstrate a link
   between Assange and the alleged source of the leak, Army Private Bradley
   Manning.

   Manning, who is believed to have stolen the documents in his role as a
   military intelligence analyst, is being held in a U.S. military prison in
   Quantico, Va. He likely faces charges for espionage.

   As for liability of the news media, a recent report from the Congressional
   Research Service suggests there may be sufficient legal precedent to keep
   them off the hook.

   \"Leaks of classified information to the press have only rarely been
   punished as crimes, and we are aware of no case in which a publisher of
   information obtained through unauthorized disclosure by a government
   employee has been prosecuted for publishing it,\" the report reads.

   \"There may be First Amendment implications that would make such a
   prosecution difficult, not to mention political ramifications based on
   concerns about government censorship.\"

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-15 17:40:26",1,"2012-02-29 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1084229_espionage-act-presents-challenges-for-wikileaks-indictment-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1087385,"LUGGAGE FOUND!!
","   Godfather just called.... he \"found\" my luggage in CA..... don't want to
   know how or who died.....
   But it'll be in the States in a few days!
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-12-15 00:16:03",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1087385_luggage-found-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","goodrich@stratfor.com,reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,hooper@stratfor.com,nathan.hughes@stratfor.com,ben.sledge@stratfor.com,marko.papic@stratfor.com,matt.gertken@stratfor.com,kristen.cooper@stratfor.com,kevin.stech@stratfor.com,peter.zeihan@stratfor.com,bayless.parsley@stratfor.com,ben.west@stratfor.com,alex.posey@stratfor.com,eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com",""
1090102,"Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT: Russian interior ministry cuts - 1
","   Bring me a billionaire English lord. Thanks ;)

   Peter Zeihan wrote:

     bring us chocolate

     from switerland

     not kent

     kent food is naaaaaaaasty

     Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       I'm in Kent, suppose to head to Switzerland on Thurs......
       unless you need me home now-- which I really want to do-- so you
       should order me home!
       \"Sorry, my boss has ordered me back to Austin\"

       George Friedman wrote:

         hey, are you back from Switzerland yet?  Where are you now world
         traveler?

         Lauren Goodrich wrote:

           Its mainly bureaucracy.
           Mainly all the FSB guys who have cushy jobs there now

           Eugene Chausovsky wrote:

             The specifics of the cut have yet to be released - this is just
             a shorty update that confirms the insight from our previous
             piece on the Interior Ministry. I'm sure we will be addressing
             this more in-depth in the near future.

             Nate Hughes wrote:

               any idea where these cuts are being made? Across the board?
               Primarily in internal security and police troops? Trimming the
               bureaucracy? Some detail would help us understand the ways in
               which the interior ministry may be weakened. If it isn't known
               where, we should probably caveat that explicitly, maybe
               offering some perspective on options...

                 Russian President Dmitri Medvedev signed a presidential
                 decree Dec 24 which calls for a 20 percent reduction in the
                 personnel of the country's Interior Ministry by Jan 1, 2012.
                 The Interior Ministry has been subject to serious state
                 scrutiny over the past few months, particularly since the
                 death of Sergei Magnitsky, a Russian lawyer working for
                 London-based Hermitage Capital who died in prison due to
                 allegedly harsh conditions. The Interior Ministry controls
                 Russia's prison system, as well as the country's police
                 force and a powerful contingent of roughly 200,000 troops
                 (LINK).

                 Medvedev's recent announcement confirms previous STRATFOR
                 insight (LINK) that the Interior Ministry would be a prime
                 target in the Kremlin clan wars (LINK), which pits chief
                 Kremlin aid Vladislav Surkov and his clan of GRU and the
                 civiliki (a group of economic and legal technocrats) against
                 deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin and his FSB clan
                 consisting of siloviki (or strongmen). Surkov has long had
                 his sights set on the Interior Ministry, and FSB stronghold,
                 and this latest move indicates that he was successful in
                 persuading Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin that the
                 Interior Ministry required some serious purging. This
                 announcement shows that the clan wars are heating up, and
                 STRATFOR will continue to closely monitor the situation as
                 it unfolds.

           --
           Lauren Goodrich
           Director of Analysis
           Senior Eurasia Analyst
           STRATFOR
           T: 512.744.4311
           F: 512.744.4334
           lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
           www.stratfor.com

         --

         George Friedman

         Founder and CEO

         Stratfor

         700 Lavaca Street

         Suite 900

         Austin, Texas 78701

         Phone  512-744-4319

         Fax  512-744-4334

       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --
   Karen Hooper
   Latin America Analyst
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-12-28 16:50:24",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1090102_re-analysis-for-comment-russian-interior-ministry-cuts-1-.html","hooper@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1092275,"[alpha] OBL
","We told the Pakis after we killed him.  But, will praise GOP publicly.  All spin and bullshit.


Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2011-05-02 05:33:15",1,"2012-02-29 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1092275_-alpha-obl-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1092740,"INSIGHT - BRAZIL - defense matters
","   Summary of meetings at the Scoala de Guerra in Rio with a Brazilian Major
   General and Air Force commander. Have a very good relationship with one
   general in particular for future questions on Brazilian defense
   The biggest priority for the Brazilian military right now is
   modernization. A military is like a dog you keep in your backyard. Our dog
   has gotten really old, it's losing a lot of teeth, even going blind in one
   eye. We don't need a Rottweiller, per se, but we do need a good guard dog,
   just to let everyone know 'we're here.'  For example, we really don't like
   the idea of the U.S. Fourth Fleet coming near the Pre-Salt fields.
   One of the biggest changes we've been adjusting to over the past few years
   is a change in the chain of military command to include a larger civilian
   role. The creation of ministry of defense was an important aspect of this.
   Now we have more of a discussion between government and military on major
   issues. Civil-mil relations are healthy now. It took time since the
   military dictatorship only ended in 1985, but Brazilians understand now
   that defense is not just for the military, it's for the nation. I would
   say that trust has been rebuilt only very recently. We were a bit
   concerned over how Dilma (former guerrilla) would act with the military,
   but she was very careful in her inauguration speech (i'm forgetting the
   exact line now -- but something about how she would not hold resentment
   against the military, which came as a big sigh of relief)
   We have a problem in developing a military industrial complex (we really
   dont have one right now) -- our own military is our worst customer. 
   When we want to develop something and export it, the government will first
   ask, well, how many of those do we have first?  typically, we would have
   0, and there was always an issue of money. We were never used to having a
   real defense budget.  So the miltary has found a way to 'lease' certain
   military equipment to the different branches of the armed forces so Brazil
   can say they have X many, so we can export Y many. 
   Brazil's defense mentality is all about deterrence. We are not looking for
   wars, but we want to build own defenses. (this is something that is really
   stressed a lot - brazil has absolute zero interest in conflict - they want
   peace with all their neighbors, etc - sounds a lot like turkey)
   Yes there is a rivalry with Argentina, but we have an accommodation. We
   don't have a war posture toward Argentina -- in fact, Brazil wants the
   Argentina economy to recover so Mercosur can work [note -- this is along
   the same lines of what Ambassador Azambuja described to me.] I have really
   strong relationships with all my Argentine defense counterparts.. the
   biggest deference I see between us and them is that their morale is really
   down.  Brazil is different -- our military-civil transition was the
   smoothest in the region if you compare it to Argentina and Chile. 
   Our Amazon strategy is all about territorial sovereignty. This is a
   growing focus of Brazilian defense priorities. the problem traces back to
   the 1850s, but even if you look really recently, there was a book written
   in the 1980s (forget the name)  - that discussed the internationalization
   of the Amazon. This book really freaked Brazil out. Brazil is seriously
   concerned about all the foreign players in Amazon, NGOs, American biotech
   companies etc. operating there under the impression that the Amazon falls
   under this genre of international 'public goods'.  The Amazon belongs to
   Brazil. We are blessed with resources, (as Azumbaja said, we are a
   freshwater superpower.) There is a sort of conspiracy that is seriously
   framing the mindset of the government and military that believes an
   outside force could begin a secessionist movement with the Indians in the
   Amazon and threaten Brazil's territorial sovereignty.
   So, Brazil is building up defenses and is setting up double perimeter in
   Amazon -- 3 battalions deployed to the Amazon so far. Before we had no
   means of patrolling those borders, but now we do have water, air and land
   patrols to interdict smugglers and prevent FARC from crossing over and
   buying food and supplies as they would do regularly in the past.  
   Jet fighter deal
   We are frustrated. The longer they wait to decide, the more they are
   putting the country at risk. - Lula should have announced it. Right now we
   are having to lease old Mirages from the Israelis. This needs to move
   forward.
   Brazil doesn't want to have a diverse set of military suppliers -- it's a
   logistical nightmare
   The French option makes sense and we are leaning heavily toward the
   Rafales for strategic reasons.
   Tech transfer is crucial in this deal.
   We are tired of this 'old lady from Idaho' problem with the US Congress.
    Some old lady in Idaho sees on TV how we are fighting favelas and crime
   in Rio and someone writes to their congressman and says don't give brazil
   those fighter jets.  We're sick of these restrictions.
   Boeing has tried to sweeten the deal by saying they will give  'adquate
   tech sharing,' whatever that means. Brazil doesn't want to deal with those
   restricitons anymore.  We had a huge problem dealing with the Tucano
   aircraft - We wanted to sell these Tucanos to VZ, but then US said we
   can't.  So then what happens?  VZ buys from Russia. That's very
   frustrating for us. Then the US makes a big deal about Russian arms sales
   in South America. Well, the US is facilitating those sales.
   There is a complete consensus that Brazil is going to move forward with
   the nuclear submarine strategy. Again, it's based on deterrence - to say
   'we have it.'
   Dilma always asks - what is the cascade effect for the jet fighters,
   nuclear submarines?
   she'll only approve these initiatives if they will produce jobs, and they
   will.
   The military is also very involved in development projects that the
   government really cares about, which helps build trust - Dilma has kept
   all continuity with the Brazilian defense appointments, and this is good
   for us. 
   Chile is arming itself, VZ is arming itself, Brazil feels the pressure.
   not we don't see this as an urgent arms race. We do need to get moving,
   though.
   Most of Brazil's attention is on Paraguay -- we need political stability
   and stability over the Itaipu arrangements -  we send reminders, but dont
   want to interfere directly in neighbors' affairs
   from journalist - Brazil doesn't have an official definition of
   'terrorism'  Instead, it's referred to as drug trafficking. Reason is
   Brazil doesn't want to give any impression or make itself a target for
   terrorists. THis was expressed in the Wikileaks.
   (rest of these notes are included with more context in the favela insight
   i sent out a couple days ago)
   Army should be in reserve role for favela crackdown, but police not yet
   reliable, trained, etc.
   Rocinha next likely target -- favelas in west sector of Rio where all the
   construction is happening for the games
   Govt is building trust, but needs to act fast, prevent the drug groups
   from aligning and going on offensive - twisting the arm of the state
   problem is with the games coming up, not enough time - can[t have
   crackdowns on tv - major dilemma for the government
","2011-01-05 13:00:37",1,"2012-03-26 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1092740_insight-brazil-defense-matters-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,nathan.hughes@stratfor.com",""
1092847,"=?Windows-1252?B?UmU6IERJU0NVU1NJT04gLSBUVVJLRVkvQ1QgLSBIZXpib2xsYWgsIFBLSywgR3VsZW4gYW5kIEFLUJJzIG5ldyBLdXJkaXNoIFN0cmF0ZWd5?=
","   This can become a good piece because it intersects a number of Turkey
   trends we are following, I.e., Elections, Kurdish separatism, and the AKP
   v Secularist struggle. You have the material here. So it shouldn't take
   too much time. But for the purposes of a proposal you need to zoom out of
   the details and provide a simple and clear thesis of what it is that this
   piece is going to be about and its significance.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Emre Dogru <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 7 Jan 2011 07:12:16 -0600 (CST)
   To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: DISCUSSION - TURKEY/CT - Hezbollah, PKK, Gulen and AKPa**s new
   Kurdish Strategy
   I'm willing to transform this discussion into a piece but not sure if it
   is too local and/or a delicate issue. Thoughts would be much appreciated.

   Top-brass militants of Turkish Hezbollah have been released two days ago -
   after staying 10 years in prison a** as a result of a law in Turkish penal
   code that the Turkish government recently changed. Ia**m not going to talk
   about the details of the new law, but briefly their cases will continue
   while they are outside of prison. This may not be a law that is
   specifically about Hezbollah, but it is clearly Hezbollah that benefits
   the most from it. And not surprisingly, Ergenekon culprits the least.

   Why does Hezbollah matter? We need to look deeper into its history to
   understand this. First, what I would prefer to call as the first period of
   Hezbollah.

   Hezbollah was active in 1980s and especially in 1990s, and especially in
   fight against PKK in Southeastern Turkey. Turkish Hezbollah and PKK are
   the two main rivals there, with Hezbollah being very Islamist and PKK a**
   still a** quite secularist. This struggle, of course, was in Turkish
   Statea**s very interest and today there is no doubt that Hezbollah gained
   a lot of power in late 1990s with Turkish a**deepa** statea**s support to
   counterweight PKK. However, it became much more powerful than the Turkish
   State expected. In 2000, Turkish special forces made operations against
   the group and killed its leader Velioglu. Turkish media revealed how
   Hezbollah killed and tortured people (its rivals, moderate Islamists and
   even its own members), and buried them in the backyard of their
   cell-houses. In revenge, Hezbollah killed police chief of the main Kurdish
   province Diyarbakir. (As a side note, my Kurdish source from Diyarbakir
   told me that this police chief interrogated leader of Hezbollaha**s armed
   wing and learned every detail about Hezbollaha**s ties to the State. Then
   he came out and said he was the black box of the Turkish state. He was
   killed that week in the downtown of Diyarbakir. So, ita**s very likely
   that the State supported his killing by Hezbollah).

   Second period started in 2000. Hezbollaha**s leader was killed and all
   top-brass was jailed. Hezbollah renounced armed struggle, and founded many
   newspapers, websites, and associations instead. It became more civilized
   and expanded its civil network. It has been working as a civil society
   organization in the region with activities very much in parallel with
   PKKa**s civilian organization. Today, its members and sympathizers are
   estimated to be around hundreds of thousands of people. It should be kept
   in mind that even though they tried to be a national - Islamist group,
   they were unable to spread beyond Kurdish areas.

   Now, we are about to see the third period of Hezbollah. Release of
   top-brass Hezbollah is going to revitalize the group. But of course one
   question remain: why now?

   There are three main movements/bloc that claim they have right and power
   to get involved in the Kurdish issue. First, Hezbollah/Mazlum-Der (its
   civil society organization). Second, PKK/DTK (civil organization)/BDP
   (political party). Third, Gulen movement. Erdogan is on top of these three
   movements and makes sure that they constantly balance each other off. He
   plays them against each other and does not allow any of them to gain
   enough power to challenge his government. This strategy allows Erdogan to
   buy time, without getting really involved in thorny issues. Never forget
   that the Kurdish issue is the biggest problem of the Turkish Republic and
   how politically risky it is. Erdogan will settle the Kurdish issue when he
   becomes president, not now. For now, he needs time. Hence, balance of
   power between these groups.

   >From this background information, the pattern shows us that Erdogan is
   now pushing Hezbollah against the other two. Why? Because there is only
   six months left before the parliamentary elections and PKK/DTK/BDP bloc is
   currently dominating the political debate about the Kurdish issue. They
   successfully opened the discussion on bi-lungualism, behaved very
   cautiously not to provoke anyone and dominated the issue over the past few
   weeks. Ia**m sure they also created rifts within the AKP and the State as
   to how to deal with them. As an example, Gul seems to have a rhetoric that
   is closer to PKK than Erdogan. Moreover, it is important that PKK does not
   attack for the moment. This gives a momentum to its popular base. Overall,
   things are going well for PKK bloc.

   But, something much more important happened three weeks ago, that could
   seriously challenge Erdogana**s game plans. For the first time, PKKa**s
   leader Ocalan offered cooperation to Gulen movement with a message from
   his prison. If you think how PKK is strong in the region and prevented
   almost all activities of the Gulen movement, this becomes really
   game-changing. The two blocs, PKK and Gulen have remained silent since
   then but there is no reason to rule out the possibility that they have
   been holding back-channel talks. Imagine what would a cooperation between
   the two main blocs mean to the AKP. Erdogan could not tolerate such a
   possibility. My guess is that Erdogan told this to his unofficial
   chief-of-staff Mucahit Arslan, who is the closest to Hezbollah bloc in
   AKP, to organize this push. My sources who travel with Erdogan's
   delegation abroad told me that Arslan is the king of Erdogan's delegation,
   in charge of everything and everyone.

   Now, reports say that Hezbollah is mulling how to participate 2011
   elections. They may participate as independent candidates or support a
   political party. It is not important whether they will support AKP, which
   I see unlikely. But there is no question that they will strongly counter
   PKK in the Kurdish regions, which is in AKPa**s best interest.

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-01-07 14:27:27",1,"2012-03-08 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1092847_-windows-1252-b.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1094236,"Re: Insight - CIA Killings ** pls do not forward **
","   leaving the middle and upper management in the hands of people trained in
   the 1990s--a very different world and very different training missions.

   That really seems to me as an intrinsic problem... not just for the
   intelligence community, but also for the State, the military, etc.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"George Friedman\" <gfriedman@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Cc: friedman@att.blackberry.net
   Sent: Monday, January 4, 2010 8:45:44 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: Insight - CIA Killings ** pls do not forward **

   There is a good and a bad reason for doing this.  The bad reason is that
   you either don't understand the difference or you don't have enough
   trained staff.  That's DIA's problem--both of them.

   But there is no inherent reason why an analyst can't learn the operators
   craft and vice versa.  Granted there are profound issues of personality
   type, but there are those who can bridge that.  However, to bridge that
   requires time, training, mentoring and maturing.  It also requires time in
   both roles for the person to learn where analysis stops and operations. 
   And it requires training by people who understand and accept both sides.

   This is very hard to do in a war where many of the senior people have
   left.  Over the past ten years a stunning number of people in the IC have
   retired, leaving the middle and upper management in the hands of people
   trained in the 1990s--a very different world and very different training
   missions. Their numbers and skill are missing and limits their mentoring
   ability.  People are happy if they get baseline capable analysts and
   operators, let alone cross-breeding them.

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

     i had heard a while back how in Iraq especially they would allow a lot
     more analysts in DIA and other agencies to interact more directly with
     sources... sounds like a trend that grew out of limited resources
     On Jan 4, 2010, at 8:34 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

       The spooks told me tonight that DOD have lost 350 soldiers in similar
       events but it has never made the press. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On
       Behalf Of George Friedman
       Sent: Monday, January 04, 2010 8:31 PM
       To: Analysts
       Subject: Re: Insight - CIA Killings ** pls do not forward **
       At the age of 25 or so an analyst or an ops officer are about equally
       skilled in the field. The training prepares you to start learning. The
       problem is that they haven't got enough experience out there. Twenty
       years in do as opposed to di makes a big difference. In my view
       getting trained at the farm and spending a year in camaroon prepares
       you for squat. The problem isn't the directorate but that both
       directirates have kids playing way abobe their pay grade.
       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
       Date: Mon, 4 Jan 2010 20:28:29 -0600
       To: 'Analyst List'<analysts@stratfor.com>
       Subject: RE: Insight - CIA Killings ** pls do not forward **
       An OPS officer is in the field from the DO, the clandestine service. 
       He/she  is specifically trained in HUMINT collection, asset
       development and asset operation.  They run the assets and work out the
       commo bwt the source and OPS officer.  Ops officers are also called
       case officers.   
        
       An analyst (the DI) reads the reports collected by the OPS officer and
       very rarely meets w/a HUMINT source, unless its an intelligence
       liaison source.  
        
       Training and skillset are apples and oranges. 
        
        

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On
       Behalf Of Sean Noonan
       Sent: Monday, January 04, 2010 8:18 PM
       To: Analyst List
       Subject: Re: Insight - CIA Killings ** pls do not forward **
       Fred, can you clarify what exactly a \"analyst vice clandestine
       operational officer\" position is?  

       Fred Burton wrote:

         Fiasco
          
         When balls are dropped in this business, they are usually fatal. 
          
         The call from an operational asset for an emergency meeting should
         have sent off the alarm bells. 
          
         The only rational explanation is the call went to the Jordanian GID
         handler first, than the Jordanian spook caused the CIA meeting. 
         Very Arab like.    (lesson learned:  Never, ever let an operational
         asset control the meeting site, especially in Injun Country.) 
          
         Obviously, the double agent told his terrorist handlers that he
         would not be checked for bombs or weapons.  This operation has been
         in the works for a long time. 
          
         My hats off to aQ.  Job well done. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On
         Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
         Sent: Monday, January 04, 2010 8:04 PM
         To: Analyst List
         Subject: Re: Insight - CIA Killings ** pls do not forward ** 
         wow, there are all kinds of lessons built into this
         On Jan 4, 2010, at 8:02 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

           Politics and CIA political correctness. 
            
           Since 9-11, analysts (like John Brennan, who was COS Riyadh w/zero
           ops training) are placed in operational management jobs.   
            
           This analyst believed their source.  First mistake in agent
           handling.  Source was running the analyst.  Lesson learned. 
            
           Inexperience field personnel pushed out due to the scope of duties
           that surpass CIA's bandwidth. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On
           Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
           Sent: Monday, January 04, 2010 7:58 PM
           To: Analyst List
           Subject: Re: Insight - CIA Killings ** pls do not forward ** 
           why was an analyst handling the source?
           On Jan 4, 2010, at 7:56 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

             ** Note  -- This cannot be sourced to the CIA.  Pls do not
             forward **
              
             According to a CIA source, there are several factors that caused
             the catastrophic incident.  Preliminary assessment follows: 
              
             1) Inexperienced analyst vice clandestine operational officer
             brought the asset into the secure setting. 
              
             2) The gathering of approx. 13 CIA staff should never have
             occurred.  
              
             3) Failure to screen the source for weapons or bombs.  Asset
             handling 101.
              
             4) COS Amman and COS Afghanistan have been recalled for
             \"consultations.\"
              
             5) Jordanian spooks arrived Langley today. 
              
              
              
              
              
              
              
              

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Research Intern
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
    

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334
","2010-01-05 03:48:06",1,"2012-07-29 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1094236_re-insight-cia-killings-pls-do-not-forward-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,friedman@att.blackberry.net",""
1094301,"[alpha] Killed by Ground Branch
","CIA 
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2011-05-02 05:12:09",1,"2012-02-29 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1094301_-alpha-killed-by-ground-branch-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1094322,"[alpha] OBL
","Reportedly, we took the body with us.  Thank goodness.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2011-05-02 05:26:15",1,"2012-02-29 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1094322_-alpha-obl-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1094536,"Re: OBL's corpse
","   Bogus pics and bogus news stories of burials at sea.

   Makes the US look dodgy and encourages distrust that the whole thing is
   real...., conspiracy, CIA, Illuminati, etc.

   Wonder if it's just a confluence of events or just a consequence of the
   internet and the loonies it brings out.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Monday, 2 May, 2011 7:26:06 PM
   Subject: OBL's corpse

   If body dumped at sea, which I doubt, the touch is very Adolph Eichman
   like.  The Tribe did the same thing with the Nazi's ashes. 

   We would want to photograph, DNA, fingerprint, etc. 

   His body is a crime scene and I don't see the FBI nor DOJ letting that
   happen. 

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 186 0122 5004
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-05-02 13:35:44",1,"2012-03-06 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1094536_re-obl-s-corpse-.html","chris.farnham@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1096148,"Occupy's 'nerve center' staffed by Soros activists
","                        To View As Web Page Click Here.                       

   +------------------------------------------------------------------------+
   |Newsletter - TeaParty.org                                               |
   |                                                                        |
   |                            Secret Funding!                             |
   |                                                                        |
   |                        Occupy's 'Nerve Center'                         |
   | The so-called leaderless Occupy movement has just been caught          |
   | red-handed operating what appears to be a nerve center staffed by      |
   | professional agitators deeply tied to groups funded by billionaire     |
   | activist George Soros.                                                 |
   |                                                                        |
   | The groups, most prominent among them being the Tides Center, have     |
   | been involved with Occupy since the anti-Wall Street movement's        |
   | inception.                                                             |
   |                                                                        |
   | The radical connections have been largely missed by the general        |
   | public. CNN, the only news media outlet to receive exclusive access to |
   | Occupy's alleged headquarters, did not fully identify the activists    |
   | found running it.                                                      |
   |                    Fax a Flag - Wake Up Washington                     |
   | Last week, CNN ran a piece titled \"Exclusive: Inside the offices of    |
   | Occupy Wall Street.\"                                                   |
   |                                                                        |
   | The article and accompanying video purport to depict \"a few dozen      |
   | Occupy Wall Street organizers\" who \"show up to work every day at an    |
   | office building in the heart of Manhattan's Financial District.\"       |
   |                                                                        |
   | CNN surmised \"the office space appears to be the movement's nerve      |
   | center,\" a notion denied by Occupy leaders interviewed by the news     |
   | network.                                                               |
   |                                                                        |
   | Continued the piece: \"But the volunteers who plan future actions,      |
   | network with other Occupy protests and deal with logistical issues     |
   | insisted the location is not Occupy Wall Street's headquarters.\"       |
   |                                                                        |
   | The news network maintained it visited Occupy's nerve center. CNN      |
   | reported the Occupy office boasts a finance committee that manages     |
   | expenses and donations; a communications group that disseminates       |
   | information agreed upon by consensus and a housing group to make       |
   | sleeping arrangements for protesters.                                  |
   |                                                                        |
   | CNN quoted activist Han Shan, identifying him only as \"a member of     |
   | Occupy Wall Street's press relations and direct-action working         |
   | groups.\"                                                               |
   |                                                                        |
   | \"This is just an office space that a handful of people have tried to   |
   | make a resource for the Occupy Wall Street movement,\" Shan stated.     |
   |                                                                        |
   | \"Everybody is looking around trying to figure out where the heck the   |
   | headquarters is, and the truth of the matter is this movement is       |
   | bigger than any piece of geography, than any piece of real estate,     |
   | than any square block.\"                                                |
   |                                                                        |
   | Shan's radical resume goes far beyond Occupy. He is the former program |
   | director for the Tides Center-funded Ruckus Society and an activist    |
   | with the Tides-funded Adbusters.                                       |
   | For Price of Six-pack and a Pizza You Can Support the Tea Party for a  |
   |                                 Month!                                 |
   | Shan was listed as the contact person for protests outside the 2000    |
   | Democratic National Convention. Those protests were sponsored by both  |
   | Adbusters and Ruckus.                                                  |
   |                                                                        |
   | Shan previously pulled off a stunt at the Mall of America in           |
   | Minneapolis, where he reportedly climbed to the top of the building    |
   | and unfurled a 600-square-foot cartoon that depicted the earth falling |
   | through a broken shopping bag. The action was aimed at getting mall    |
   | visitors to ditch their purchases, go home and observe Thanksgiving    |
   | Friday as \"Buy Nothing Day.\"                                           |
   |                                                                        |
   | Since 1992, \"Buy Nothing Day\" has been sponsored annually by the       |
   | Vancouver-based Media Foundation, which publishes Adbusters.           |
   |                                                                        |
   | Adbusters magazine is reported to have come up with the Occupy Wall    |
   | Street idea after Arab Spring protests toppled governments in Egypt,   |
   | Libya and Tunisia. The Adbusters website serves as a central hub for   |
   | Occupy's planning.                                                     |
   |                                                                        |
   | Working with the Ruckus Society, Shan was a leader of the 1999 World   |
   | Trade Organization protests in Seattle that turned violent. Ruckus     |
   | helped to spark those riots.                                           |
   |                                                                        |
   | Ruckus is directly tied to Occupy. WND previously reported how         |
   | official direct-action training resources for recent Occupy events     |
   | include several manuals from the Ruckus Society, which trains radical  |
   | activists in \"direct action\" techniques.                               |
   |                                                                        |
   | Ruckus was also listed as a \"friend and partner\" of the Occupy Days of |
   | Action held last month.                                                |
   |                                                                        |
   | Ruckus is funded by the Tides Center, which has been involved in       |
   | Occupy since the movement's onset.                                     |
   |                                                                        |
   | Another grantee of Tides is the Adbusters magazine. MoveOn org, which  |
   | has joined Occupy, is funded by Tides.                                 |
   |                                                                        |
   | Tides functions as a money tunnel where major leftist donors provide   |
   | large sums that are channeled to hundreds of radical groups. One       |
   | prominent Tides donor is Soros.                                        |
   |                                                                        |
   | Besides accepting major donations from Tides, Ruckus is also funded    |
   | directly by Soros' own Open Society Institute.                         |
   |                                                                        |
   | Meanwhile, another Occupy staffer loosely identified by CNN is Haywood |
   | Carey, who is labeled simply as an Occupy \"activist.\" KEEP READING -   |
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   |                Opinions From Tea Party's Secret Blogger                |
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   |  Warning - This blog posting has not been corrected or spell checked.  |
   |                      It is raw Freedom of Speech.                      |
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   |                        We Still Have The Power                         |
   | The States Have the Constitutional Power to Pass Legislation           |
   | Prescribing Presidential Ballot Access Requirements Including          |
   | Determining Whether a Candidate Meets the Eligibility Requirements of  |
   | Article II, Section 1, Clause 5                                        |
   |                                                                        |
   | I am so excited about this blog. It's wonderful it's great it brings   |
   | hope. Why you ask?                                                     |
   |                                                                        |
   | First I have to tell you this put a huge ole smile on my face and joy  |
   | in my heart and I bet your asking why?                                 |
   |                                                                        |
   | 1. What is says is Obama doesn't stand a chance against the law suits  |
   | that can be brought against him in each State. It describes what and   |
   | how we came from using the term Natural Born Citizen to Citizen and    |
   | what the Constitution and Courts have upheld in regards to those       |
   | terms.                                                                 |
   |                                                                        |
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   | President also apply to the House of Representatives and Senate.       |
   |                           Join Command Center                          |
   | 3. It means that the States all have the right to pass laws requiring  |
   | long form birth certificate proof of citizenship for those offices.    |
   |                                                                        |
   | 4. It also clarifies the intentions of the Constitution to what a      |
   | Citizen is and that illegal aliens that come here and have their       |
   | babies, those babies are not automatically Citizens and are not        |
   | automatically eligible to our rights and privileges as the Feds would  |
   | have us believe.                                                       |
   |                                                                        |
   | 5. It means that if your City, and Counties or what name you use for   |
   | your local governing bodies, have stipulations in their requirements   |
   | for people running for you Mayor, City Council, Sheriff, School Board  |
   | members, County boards etc. any office that is held by an elected or   |
   | appointed position, that they are to be citizens of the United States  |
   | are all subject to question. :)                                        |
   |                                                                        |
   | At least that's what I get out of it.....I'm not a constitutional wiz  |
   | or a lawyer, but to me that's what if means.                           |
   |                                                                        |
   | Then guys and gals we have to go to work big time. Time is running     |
   | out. Join the Tea Party to learn how to become an activist. We should  |
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","2011-12-15 17:18:44",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1096148_occupy-s-nerve-center-staffed-by-soros-activists-.html","teaparty@e.teaparty.org","","internships@stratfor.com",""
1097638,"Re: OBL's corpse
","   Body is Dover bound, should be here by now. 

   On 5/2/2011 6:35 AM, George Friedman wrote:

     Eichmann was seen alive for many months on trial before being sentenced
     to death and executed. No one wanted a monument to him so they cremated
     him. But i dont know anyone who claimed he wasnt eicjhman. No comparison
     with suddenly burying him at sea without any chance to view him which i
     doubt happened.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
     Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Mon, 2 May 2011 06:26:07 -0500 (CDT)
     To: <analysts@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Subject: OBL's corpse
     If body dumped at sea, which I doubt, the touch is very Adolph Eichman
     like.  The Tribe did the same thing with the Nazi's ashes. 

     We would want to photograph, DNA, fingerprint, etc. 

     His body is a crime scene and I don't see the FBI nor DOJ letting that
     happen. 
","2011-05-02 13:36:41",1,"2012-02-29 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1097638_re-obl-s-corpse-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,friedman@att.blackberry.net",""
1097811,"[alpha] Blowback
","FBI sees retaliation attacks in CONUS 

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2011-05-02 05:22:49",1,"2012-02-29 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1097811_-alpha-blowback-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1100512,"INSIGHT - World Crude Steel Production - (via) CN65
","   **Report sent by CN65

   SOURCE: CN65 (via CN65)
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator working in PNG
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   World Crude Steel Production

   The Latest data from The World Steel Association shows a 1% decline in
   global
   crude steel production in December 2010 on the previous month total was
   116.2 Mt,
   which was however 8.4 Mt higher than in the same month in 2009.

   I think this fairly suggests that the Global recovery since The GFC is
   well
   on track and it is not 'just' China.

   Total global crude steel production in 2010 was 1,395.5 Mt, 15% higher
   than
   in the previous year which is a big number except for the fact that the
   GFC forced a very significant reduction pretty much everywhere
   'except for China'

   Month-on-month increases were seen in the majority of steel producing
   regions including the US (+0.3 Mt to 6.7 Mt), China (+1.4 Mt to 51.5
   Mt) and Japan (+0.2 Mt to 9.2 Mt). However in the EU, production fell
   from the previous month (-1.7 to 13.0 Mt).

   German Imports of Iron Ore Drop to 3.46 Mt in November German imports of
   iron ore dropped 17% month-on-month in November to 3.46 Mt BUT this took
   the January to November 2010 total in German to 39.48 Mt, 10.66 Mt higher
   that in the same period of 2009 when Germany and others were still
   recovering from The GFC.

   Obviously as WW steel production continues to increase then demand
   for Ore and Coking coal remains strong and continues to expand 'ahead'
   of Physical supply and therefore keeps these commodity prices trending
   higher at a time when total DWCC for its carriage continues to
   grow ahead of Physical export volumes which forces dry bulk freight
   rates to trend lower, even with extraordinary factors of Congestion
   (and slow steaming) and additional tonne miles through longer haul
   which fo however reduce DWCC availability.

   Having said this, I still say 'watch out' for a significant recovery in
   druy bulk rates 'led by capers' then flowing down into Panamax resp
   Supramax sizes once the current unsustainably low levels have been
   rationailsed by this market and DWCC supply having been redistributed
   (Including layups - especially Capers) and the equation reset in Owners
   favour, albeit that any bounce will be relatively short lived and have
   a limited upside for Capers, panamax, Supramax, high/lows for Handies
   remaining relatively stable for reasons previously explained.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-01-24 20:22:32",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1100512_insight-world-crude-steel-production-via-cn65-.html","reginald.thompson@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1101457,"continuation of insinuating reva sleeps with sources
","(17:09) Bayless Parsley: you have been the latam analyst for like two 
seconds
(17:10) Bayless Parsley: how the fuck did you get all this
(17:10) Reva Bhalla: coffee  
(17:10) Bayless Parsley: so that's what they're calling it these days, huh
(17:10) Reva Bhalla: haha
(17:10) Reva Bhalla: shut the hell up
(17:10) Bayless Parsley: amazing
(17:12) Bayless Parsley: it's a good thing G doesn't want you as the new 
africa analyst
(17:12) Bayless Parsley: risk of AIDS is too high
(17:12) Reva Bhalla: OMG
(17:12) Reva Bhalla: BAYLESS
(17:12) Reva Bhalla: FUCKING
(17:12) Reva Bhalla: PARSLEY
(17:12) Bayless Parsley: ????
(17:12) Bayless Parsley: i'm talking about if you have an open cut
(17:12) Bayless Parsley: and your source, also has an open cut
(17:12) Bayless Parsley: and you accidentally bump into him with open cuts!!
(17:13) Reva Bhalla: haha i hate you
","2010-02-11 00:13:41",1,"2012-02-27 02:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1101457_continuation-of-insinuating-reva-sleeps-with-sources-.html","bayless.parsley@stratfor.com","","kevin.stech@stratfor.com",""
1102490,"[EastAsia] INSIGHT - CHINA - Growth - (via) CN65
","   **Source is actually an Ernst & Young Analyst writing to CN65.  Nothing
   ground-breaking, but confirmation of what we already know.

   SOURCE: CN65 (via CN65)
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator working in PNG
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2/3
   DISTRIBUTION: EA, Econ
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   Some things about Chinese growth figures:

   -  they are a bit dodgy, because regional economies are told that they
   need, say, 10% growth, and voila, they report 10% growth
   -  statistics are still not accurate. for example, in 2007 (i think) the
   Chinese decided that its economy was suddenly 16% larger than what they
   thought it was.  The reporting of services sector output is still a bit
   dodgy
   -  i think the best way to forecast Chinese growth is from the supply
   side - ie. to look at their potential growth rate in terms of Labour Force
   growth + Productivity Growth = GDP and then have a think about the risks
   around that.  I always recommended a wide variance around China's growth
   forecast because the whole show could fall over because of the massive
   misallocations in the market (eg.  investment is directed at only certain
   industries, the exchange rate is held low to promote exports, interest
   rates are held at different levels in different industry sectors etc etc).
   -  So, until about 2015, you will see a continuation of the massive
   labour force growth (peasants coming in from the farms).  That said, wages
   and inflation are slowly starting to rise.   While labour productivity is
   still strong, capital productivity is starting to decline as China
   inevitably becomes a capital rich developed country.  The upshot is that
   10% is the absolute max that China can now grow given the current
   structure
   of the economy.  I would expect China to grow between 8-10% until 2015,
   then things will switch from the export sector to domestic demand,
   particularly as China commit to the pension reforms that will allow the
   people to spend more of their money (at the moment savings is 50% of
   GDP!!!!!).

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-01-24 14:09:16",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1102490_-eastasia-insight-china-growth-via-cn65-.html","colibasanu@stratfor.com","mailto:eastasia@stratfor.com","eastasia@stratfor.com,econ@stratfor.com",""
1102694,"[alpha] Body
","Airborne to CONUS

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2011-05-02 05:41:24",1,"2012-02-29 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1102694_-alpha-body-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1102718,"[alpha] Body bound for Dover, DE on CIA plane
","Than onward to the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology in Bethesda.

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2011-05-02 05:51:12",1,"2012-02-29 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1102718_-alpha-body-bound-for-dover-de-on-cia-plane-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1102724,"Re: B3* - GREECE/EU/ECON - Greek bonds fall as EU says budget deficit
	forecast unreliable
","   by cheap i mean inexpensive.

   Robert Reinfrank wrote:

     Calling bullshit on their stats is a pretty cheap way to talk bond
     prices down and add pressure on Greece to reform.

     **************************
     Robert Reinfrank
     STRATFOR
     Austin, Texas
     W: +1 512 744-4110
     C: +1 310 614-1156

     On Jan 12, 2010, at 6:40 AM, Antonia Colibasanu
     <colibasanu@stratfor.com> wrote:

       EU report released on Jan. 8 but posted today -
       http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/COM_2010_REPORT_GREEK/EN/COM_2010_REPORT_GREEK-EN.PDF

         http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=a_XY.hXYSyAI

         Greek Bonds Fall as EU Says Budget Deficit Forecast Unreliable
         Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A

         By Andrew Davis

         Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Greek bonds fell after the European
         Commission said there have been \"severe irregularities\" in the
         nation's statistical data, leaving the accuracy of the European
         Union's largest budget deficit in doubt.

         The declines drove the yield on Greece's two-year note 16 basis
         points higher, the most in almost a month, after the commission
         said in a report today \"the lack of reliability and the shortage of
         evidence supporting the deficit figure reported\" in two revisions
         by the government in April and October left the data \"in question.\"
         An International Monetary Fund team arrived in Greece today to aid
         the government in its efforts to tame the deficit.

         \"You have all these stories about the IMF visiting Greece, the
         European Commission and a reversal in risk appetite\" hurting bonds,
         said Peter Schaffrik, an interest-rate strategist at Commerzbank
         AG in London. \"A combination of these factors will weigh on Greece.\"

         The EU is stepping up scrutiny of Prime Minister George Papandreou's
         efforts to tame a deficit forecast to be equivalent to 12.7 percent
         of the country's gross domestic product this year, more than four
         times the region's set limit. EU President Herman van Rompuy will
         hold talks with Papandreou today, a week after an EU team spent
         three days in Athens.

         \"Unless the institutional weaknesses identified in this report
         are addressed and proper checks and balances introduced, the
         reliability of Greek deficit and debt data will remain in question,\"
         the EU said in its report today.

         Yield Premium

         The declines for Greek bonds drove up the extra yield investors
         demand to hold the country's 10-year notes instead of
         similar-maturity German bonds, the benchmark European securities, by
         14 basis points to 232, the highest since Jan. 4. The difference
         averaged 55 basis points over the past 10 years.

         Credit-default swaps on Greece rose 20.5 basis points to 276,
         according to CMA DataVision prices. That means it costs $276,000 a
         year to protect $10 million of the government's debt from default
         for five years.

         Papandreou's government will complete this week a new
         deficit-reduction plan that aims to cut the shortfall to within the
         EU's 3 percent limit in 2012 and avoid punishment under the EU's
         excessive-deficit procedure. The plan will be presented to the
         Brussels-based commission this month and European finance ministers
         will rule on the measures at a meeting on Feb. 15-16.

         Today's report marks the EU's latest challenge to Greek statistical
         data, after revisions in 2004 indicated the country shouldn't have
         qualified to join the euro. Greece has met the EU's deficit target
         once since joining the euro, according to Commission figures in
         November. That was in 2006, when the shortfall was 2.9 percent.

         Earlier Revisions

         \"The most recent revisions are an illustration of the lack of
         quality of the Greek fiscal statistics and of Greek macroeconomic
         statistics in general and show that the progress in the compilation
         of fiscal statistics in the country, and the intense scrutiny by
         Eurostat since 2004, have not sufficed to bring the quality of Greek
         fiscal data to the level reached by other EU Member States,\" the
         report said.

         Concern about the government's worsening finances prompted Fitch
         Ratings, Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's to all cut
         the country's creditworthiness in December and fueled
         investor concern about a possible debt default.

         The difference in yield between Greek and German 10-year government
         debt widened to 276 basis points on Dec. 21, the most since March
         17.

         Greece's deficit has prompted speculation from some investors
         that the rest of the EU would save the country from default if such
         a move were necessary. The EU will support Greece's efforts to tame
         the deficit, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero,
         who holds the EU's rotating presidency, said last week in Brussels.

         How far support from the EU or ECB would go remains unclear. ECB
         Executive Board member Juergen Stark said in a Jan. 6 interview in
         Italian newspaper Il Sole-24 Ore that \"markets are deluding
         themselves\" if they are counting on a bailout.

         To contact the reporter on this story: Andrew Davis in Rome at
         abdavis@bloomberg.net
         Last Updated: January 12, 2010 06:37 EST
","2010-01-12 18:53:08",1,"2001-03-13 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1102724_re-b3-greece-eu-econ-greek-bonds-fall-as-eu-says-budget.html","robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com","mailto:econ@stratfor.com","econ@stratfor.com",""
1103141,"INSIGHT - EGYPT - Info on April 6, gov't tone on \"good students\"
	and bad MB, Kifaya
","   information about the crackdown targeting April 6, the difference between
   April 6 and Kifaya, arrest of El Baradei supporter, the orgins of April 6
   and the observation that the government is trying to draw a distinction
   between \"good students\" and the bad MB (though, I have not see any
   evidence of this, but it could just be because we can't collect every
   public statement issued by the gov't using English media)

   PUBLICATION: Background/analysis
   SOURCE: RS501
   ATTRIBUTION:STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Revolutionary leader
   SOURCE  Reliability : B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2-3
   DISTRIBUTION:Analyst
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Bayless/Marko

   Bayless,

   We have just spoken with some of our friends in Egypt and have learned few
   things

    

   -          That \"softening the language\" about \"good students\" while being
   harsh on Muslim Brotherhood still is main trend [BP: This tracks with what
   Marko was saying about how he thinks Mubarak will eventually come out and
   try to embrace the 'student', aka pro-democracy groups movement, while
   saying 'baaad Islamists, bad.']

   -          That besides his announcement that he will come back and
   participate in demonstrations tomorrow El Baradei may have lost part of
   his authority due to \"absence in key days\" factor (the same reason why
   political opposition is not considered to be legitimate in Tunisia)

   -          That may be guy named Noor, former presidential candidate whose
   authority among protestors rises and

   -          That tomorrow MB will pull their move on streets, so it may be
   even more dramatic.

   -          We got a bit better insight among the groups and how theywe
   organizing last few days, but still look into mapping it.

   -           Regarding your question, seems that one of our friends from
   April 6, and their key men for online organizing (kind of what \"David
   Plouffe was for barrack obama) Mohammed Adel, was arrested last night and
   treated brutally. Among others, who were arrested last night, was Dr.
   Mustafa Al Nagar general coordinator of the popular campaign in support of
   El Baradei. He was arrested and transferred to unknown destination.
   Knowing Egyptians, and how they were fast in moving towards
   \"personalization\" I expect their names to emerge in protesters and media.

    

   We have gotten, though, answers to part of your questions, as we have
   spoken to other friends in Egypt:

    

   [the following part is an email the source copied and pasted to me; i have
   included the questions i was asking in red above the answers]

   Regarding the questions below, here are my answers:

   1) State-owned Nile News TV ran a report on Jan. 25 that was very
   disparaging of all the protesters. But the thing that interested me the
   most was the statement made in the broadcast was: \"This is the first time
   political movements such as 6 April movement, National Association for
   Change and Kifaya are mentioned in state television.\"

   What?! That cannot be true, man. Is it really? Can you please ask your
   friends at April 6?

   1) No, this is wrong! It is not the first time state tv mentions
   opposition groups. Nile News TV is part of the state-owned Egypt News
   Sector. They mentioned April6 and Kefaya and Elbaradei many many times
   before. Of course, they do not always say nice things about them. But at
   least in mentioning them they recognize that they exist!

   2) I read on the April 6 website their little \"About Us\" page in English:
   http://shabab6april.wordpress.com/shabab-6-april-youth-movement-about-us-in-english/

   I am very interested in the reference to Mahalla in 2007. What is so
   special about that place to them?
   2) Mahalla 2007 protests were the spark that started April6 Movement from
   the very beginning. In 2007, labor force in Mahalla (the largest
   industrial city of Egypt) started huge demonstrations against poverty and
   unfair work conditions. Those demonstrations were suppressed brutally by
   the police [BP: emphasis mine; just noting it was not the military]. So,
   activists all over Egypt, especially in Cairo called upon launching
   protests nation-wide, all over the country, against corruption, poverty,
   and low salaries. This protest was planned to happen on April6. This is
   how \"April6\" movement got their name.
   3) What is April 6's relationship with Kifaya?

   3) As far as I know there is no direct relationship between April6 and
   Kefaya except that some of the members of April6 were former members of
   Youth for Change sub-group affiliated to Kefaya. But both are independent
   movements that are not directly linked. Also, it is noteworthy that April6
   are mostly composed of liberal young students, while Kefaya is composed of
   leftist (socialist) older activists and intellectuals.

   I hope this is helpful.
","2011-01-27 19:25:44",1,"2012-06-18 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1103141_insight-egypt-info-on-april-6-gov-t-tone-on-good-students.html","michael.wilson@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1105205,"Re: G3/B3/GV - CHINA/CANADA/ENERGY -
	China	Invests	in	Canadian	Oil-Export Project
","   it is Prince Rupert that is the gateway they're talking about. i'll send
   here next a PR release I dug up, on plans for Prince Rupert port and
   infrastructure.

   On 1/21/11 8:33 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

     yeah - that might be better for PR reasons

     they'll need a mega-massive port expansion for that tho -- add in a
     couple billion more

     On 1/21/2011 8:28 AM, Mark Schroeder wrote:

       i think BC is actually building a new port/new infrastructure up in
       the northern part of the province, Prince Rupert I believe.

       I can try to get a bit of insight on this if I'm lucky.

       On 1/21/11 8:25 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

         while technically possible, going over the Canadian Rockies would be
         a technical challenge to say the least

         im guessing that the price tag on this would easily go above $15b
         (about triple what the current estimate is)

         there's are very good reasons why all the crude goes south on flat
         land to the midwest

         so not impossible, but china would have to pony up for all of that
         itself (its done stranger things for less, so who knows)

         Vancouver as an oil supertanker port -- now THAT would do some
         interesting things to Canada's view of China

         On 1/20/2011 10:19 PM, Chris Farnham wrote:

           Will this undermine the supply to the US at all? [chris]

                  China Invests in Canadian Oil-Export Project

             * http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704747904576094513925922294.html?mod=WSJASIA_hps_LEFTTopWhatNews

  By EDWARD WELSCH

           CALGARY-China is helping to finance the development of a proposed
           $5.51 billion dollar oil pipeline to Canada's West Coast that
           would open the Asian market to Canadian crude, which is now
           chiefly consumed by the U.S.

           State-owned China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., or Sinopec, is among
           a consortium of Canadian oil producers and Asian refiners
           investing $100 million in Enbridge Inc.'s proposed Northern
           Gateway pipeline, Enbridge Chief Executive Pat Daniel said during
           a Web cast investor conference Thursday.

           The Northern Gateway pipeline would pipe an average of 525,000
           barrels of crude oil a day from Canada's oil-sands region to a
           port in British Columbia, from which it would be shipped to Asian
           markets. Regulators aren't expected to rule on whether the project
           can go forward until next year. If approved, construction is
           scheduled to be completed in 2016.

           Canada's oil sands hold an estimated 170 billion barrels of oil,
           making it the second-largest oil reserve in the world, after Saudi
           Arabia's. The U.S. is the only export market for Canadian crude
           oil, and Canada is the U.S.'s largest single supplier.

           \"We think it is hugely in Canada's national best interest to have
           a second outlet for our crude oil,\" Mr. Daniel said, \"...so that
           we can become a price-maker with regard to crude-oil pricing,
           instead of a price-taker.\"

           Sinopec and other investors have put up $100 million to help
           Northern Gateway get through the regulatory process, which
           includes producing environmental-impact studies and consulting
           with native and environmental groups-some of which oppose the
           project.

           Mr. Daniel said Enbridge itself has already spent $100 million on
           the regulatory process. The Calgary-based pipeline company applied
           for approval to build Northern Gateway in May, and expects
           Canada's federal energy regulator to approve it by the middle of
           2012.

           Mr. Daniel said confidentiality agreements prohibited him from
           naming the other investors, but said he could name Sinopec because
           the news had been previously reported by Canadian newspaper the
           National Post.

           The proposal has met fierce criticism from native groups and
           environmental nongovernmental organizations. Some warn of the risk
           of spills from the pipeline or from oil tankers, while others are
           chiefly opposed to further growth of the oil-sands industry, which
           has come under fire for its substantial greenhouse-gas emissions
           and fears of water contamination.

           Mr. Daniel said he is confident Enbridge could win over
           opposition. The company in November proposed giving a 10% equity
           stake to native groups in an attempt to win them over, Daniel
           said.

           \"That's been very well received and we're hoping to bring more
           First Nations on side as a result of that,\" he said.

           U.S.-listed shares of Enbridge closed down 39 cents at $55.32 on
           the New York Stock Exchange Thursday.

           Write to Edward Welsch at edward.welsch@dowjones.com

           --

           Chris Farnham
           Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
           China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
           Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
           www.stratfor.com
","2011-01-21 15:38:57",1,"2012-06-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1105205_re-g3-b3-gv-china-canada-energy-china-invests-in-canadian.html","mark.schroeder@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1106053,"Re: On bombing Iran
","The point is what is Israel's next move?  Bob and Mike are experts, but
both also understand that what we think is really not the issue.  I also
know what BB will do, i.e., protect the State of Israel.  One can look
at MOSSAD's recent covert activities and get a sense of their mindset.
I also think they will assassinate A-Dogg.  His helo will have a
malfunction.

Kamran Bokhari wrote:
> /The National Journal Online/ recently solicited submissions
> <http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1103080116673&s=587&e=001zZCK7RjAkKotG9fO6_BsMQTLf85siLqbdpGanhUklt1BcxdBjf8iJmMyphxq2VMVMK_ce1s0AQRbba6B5cDZGL4DIXtBJ1tqQXHJ4Xnv3RZSSq9wW4ZSvxaIKtV9oLb3H7yw0tfeHDfEjImJWfltpgMs6TRM0l8qNAuo52xJSRZRF9k8jV0Y-8Gc-rWII7Q3> from
> a variety of different Middle East experts on what policy steps the U.S.
> should next take toward Iran. Of the ten submissions that were
> published, none of them advised Washington to use military force.
> *Michael F. Scheuer *called upon the administration to make a public
> statement that there will be no military action, or support of one,
> against Iran. *Michael Brenner* argued that embracing the opposition
> movement in Iran could be \"the kiss of death.\" *James Jay Carafano
> *maintained that the U.S. should adopt tough sanctions against Iran as
> well as \"shame Iran for its horrific human rights record.\" And *Robert
> Baer proposed a \"don't do anything about Iran\" policy since *Iran's
> military dictatorship thrives on conflict and hostility.
> 
>  
> 
","2010-02-22 17:21:03",1,"2012-03-27 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1106053_re-on-bombing-iran-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1108169,"Re: B2* - Greek fury at EU partners over 'psychology of looming
	collapse'
","   Papandreu is of course correct. Greece really is \"the lab animal\" in the
   tussle between the EU and the markets. The EU is using the Greek example
   to send two messages: 1. First is to the rest of the Club Med: there may
   be an implicit bailout at the end of teh rainbow, but it is one bloody
   rainbow that!, and 2) To the markets that the EU will bail out, so dont
   dump the bonds.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Antonia Colibasanu\" <colibasanu@stratfor.com>
   To: \"alerts\" <alerts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Sunday, February 14, 2010 2:33:51 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: B2* - Greek fury at EU partners over 'psychology of looming
   collapse'

   *this is reported by FT online 8 hours ago but was in print edition of
   yesterday. so no rep :(

   http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1ee4cdfe-183c-11df-9256-00144feab49a.html

   Greek fury at EU partners over 'psychology of looming collapse'

   By Kerin Hope in Athens, Quentin Peel in Berlin and Tony,Barber in
   Brussels

   Published: February 13 2010 02:00 | Last updated: February 13 2010 02:00

   Greece yesterday unleashed a fierce attack on its European Union partners,
   accusing them of creating a \"psychology of looming collapse\" a day after
   they had pledged support for the country's crisis-hit government.

   George Papandreou, Greek prime minister, said that, in the eurozone's
   first big test, Greece had become \"a laboratory animal in the battle
   between Europe and the markets\".

   In a televised address to his cabinet, he criticised other EU members for
   sending \"mixed messages about our country . . . that have created a
   psychology of looming collapse which could be self-fulfilling\".

   Mr Papandreou blamed the European Commission for failing to crack down on
   the previous conservative government's \"criminal record\" in falsifying
   statistics. \"This has undermined the responsibility of the European
   institutions with international markets,\" he said.

   His outburst is likely to infuriate the very leaders whose help Mr
   Papandreou needs. It came as it emerged there would be no more talk of
   financial assistance until Athens had persuaded the EU that it had a
   sustainable austerity programme in place.

   Germany is insisting Athens bears initial responsibility for restoring
   confidence in Greece. Angela Merkel, German chancellor, resisted French
   efforts to come up with an explicit bail-out package at Thursday's summit
   of EU leaders in Brussels.

   Officials in Paris said Ms Merkel's insistence on additional efforts by
   Greece to cut its budget deficit came close to thwarting agreement at the
   summit. According to sources in Athens, she called for a rise in Greek
   value-added tax of 1 percentage point, in addition to extra spending cuts.
   Herman Van Rompuy, EU president, drafted a compromise before the summit
   started.

   Ms Merkel's tough stance has overwhelming political and popular support in
   Germany.

   Members of both government and opposition parties in the Bundestag said
   there would be no parliamentary support for a Greek rescue package without
   clear evidence of drastic cuts in spending. Eurozone finance ministers are
   due to meet on Monday, but no detailed rescue plan will be on their
   agenda.

   Additional reporting by Ben Hall in Paris

   Eurozone economy, Page 5 Editorial Comment, Page 10 Man in the News, Page
   11 Lex, Page 24

   Marko Papic wrote:

        EU needs to step up anti-speculation moves: Greek PM
       12 February 2010, 15:07 CET
       http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/greece-economy-debt.2oo
       (ATHENS) - The European Union needs to become a more active and better
       coordinated force on international markets, the Greek prime minister
       said on Friday, as his country struggles to restore its global
       financial standing.

       \"Today ... the credibility of Europe and its willingness to stand up
       to international markets are at stake,\" George Papandreou said a day
       after the European Union undertook to stand by Greece as it confronts
       a debt and public deficit crisis.

       An EU summit declaration on Thursday contained no concrete measures to
       help Greece, but Papandreou said after the meeting that it nonetheless
       amounted to a clear warning to speculators.

       The cost of borrowing for Greece on bond markets has risen sharply of
       late in response to the country's debt burden and on fears that its
       proposed measures might not be enough to strengthen public finances.

       Some commentators, however, have said the problems Greece has faced in
       raising funds are due to speculative attacks in the market.

       \"My feeling is that Europe has still not understood its capacity to
       draft rules and policies to confront international markets,\"
       Papandreou told a cabinet meeting Friday.

       He said it was unfortunate that while the EU had thrown its \"political
       support\" behind Greece's effort to shore up its public finances, \"the
       struggle against the impressions and psychology of the markets lacks
       punch, to say the least.\"

       He said: \"Greece is neither an economic nor a political superpower and
       cannot lead such a campaign by itself.\"

       He said: \"There is a lack of coordination among the different
       components of the (European Union executive) commission, the European
       Union and the European Central Bank. There are even differences among
       them.\"

       Greece has caused consternation in the 16-nation eurozone with a
       public deficit that comes to 12.7 percent of gross domestic product
       and a debt that amounts to 113 percent of output.

       Both figures are far in excess of eurozone regulations and have led to
       an erosion of Greek credibility on financial markets.

       Moody's Investors Service has estimated that Greece must allocate 15.1
       percent of its revenues to interest payments, about twice the ratio
       for two other debt-burdened eurozone members, Spain and Portugal.

       The comparable figures are 7.0 percent for Spain and 7.1 percent for
       Portugal, according to Moody's.

       Text and Picture Copyright 2010 AFP.

       Mike Jeffers
       STRATFOR
       Austin, Texas
       Tel: 1-512-744-4077
       Mobile: 1-512-934-0636

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-02-14 11:12:41",1,"2001-03-13 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1108169_re-b2-greek-fury-at-eu-partners-over-psychology-of-looming.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:econ@stratfor.com","econ@stratfor.com",""
1111729,"Re: Goggle Shitstorm Moving to Gaza (internal use only)
","   Cohen's rabbi is Eric Schmidt and Obama lackey.

   My source is trying to find out if the billionaire owners are backing
   Cohen's efforts for regime change.

   I'm thinking about having the Palestinians pick him up.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2011 13:22:55 -0600 (CST)
   To: Fred Burton<burton@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Secure List<secure@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: Goggle Shitstorm Moving to Gaza (internal use only)
   Why hasn't Google cut ties to Cohen yet? Or is Cohen's activity being
   endorsed by those higher up in the co. than your contact?

   On 2/10/11 1:20 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 Jared Cohen, the Google policy official who met w/the Google Gypo Exec,
 ONE HOUR before the poor chap was nabbed, is off to Gaza next
 week....per a very good Google source.

 Cohen, a Jew, is bound to get himself whacked....

 Google is not clear if Cohen is operating w/a State Dept/WH license, or
 a hippie activist.

 Google may be more important than Obama.  Their lefty billionaire owners
 think they can change the world.  I would prefer Google run the world
 vice the WH.
","2011-02-10 20:26:49",1,"2012-03-14 22:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1111729_re-goggle-shitstorm-moving-to-gaza-internal-use-only-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,zucha@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
1112549,"Fw: [CT] Assange-Manning Link Not Key to WikiLeaks Case
","   Not for Pub --

   We have a sealed indictment on Assange.

   Pls protect

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2011 08:16:53 -0600
   To: CT AOR<ct@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [CT] Assange-Manning Link Not Key to WikiLeaks Case
   January 25, 2011 3:37 PM
   Assange-Manning Link Not Key to WikiLeaks Case

   http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162-20029521-503543.html

   A report that investigators have so far failed to establish a direct link
   between the founder of the document-dumping website WikiLeaks and the Army
   private accused of providing the site with hundreds of thousands of secret
   State Department cables won't derail the military's case as much as it
   might seem.

   The case against Army Pfc. Bradley Manning didn't hinge on investigators
   uncovering a direct link to WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange anyway, CBS
   News National Security Correspondent David Martin reports.

   Special Section: WikiLeaks

   On Monday, NBC News reported that military officials said Manning couldn't
   be directly linked to Assange in allegedly handing off the cables and
   other secret documents that led to last summer's publication of the
   Afghanistan and Iraq war logs.

   But no one ever thought there was direct contact between Assange and
   Manning, Martin reports. Assange meeting or e-mailing Manning would be
   like the director of the Central Intelligence Agency meeting or e-mailing
   a CIA agent. The theory of the case is that Assange orchestrated the leak
   through cut outs deliberately designed to immunize himself from charges of
   espionage.

   In his own e-mails, Manning refers to himself as a source for Assange even
   though he did not give the documents to Assange but allegedly to a third
   person while home on Christmas leave, Martin reports.

   Attorney General Eric Holder has said the Justice Department was
   considering filing espionage charges in the case.

   Meanwhile, Manning continues to be held in a military brig while the Army
   considers prosecuting him. He has been charged with illegally obtaining
   more than 150,000 secret cables and giving more than 50 of them and a
   classified video to an unauthorized person.

   Manning's lawyer told The Associated Press Friday that a mental-health
   investigation to determine if Manning can stand trial will likely begin in
   February.
   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2011-01-26 15:23:28",1,"2012-01-29 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1112549_fw-ct-assange-manning-link-not-key-to-wikileaks-case-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
1112696,"Re: When Hedge funds attack
","   they actually do expropriate... ask J.C. Flowers!

   It is a perfect way to pass the buck, Europeans know this game and have
   played it for centuries:

   - pick some rich people, CHECK
   - preferably American, CHECK
   - preferably dining in an expensive Manhattan restaurant, CHECK
   - with a private dining room, CHECK
   - blame them for everything, including the Black Death, CHECK
   - build some shower rooms... getting there

   Robert Reinfrank wrote:

     Having dinner and taking each others' temperature is not colluding or
     illegal. However, with all their huffing and puffing about the euro,
     Eurozone governments are essentially saying that it is illegal for any
     one to question the integrity of their currency (or public finances, or
     whatever). Hence, they intimidate and threaten to--if they don't
     actually-- expropriate, regulate, tax, sue, and imprison.  Government is
     going to bully and scare every which way it can, and hedge funds are an
     easy, high-profile target-- \"hedge fund\" packs even more punch than
     \"speculators,\" and everyone knows how they caused the financial crisis,
     right? This is simply a diversionary tactic. 

     Peter Zeihan wrote:

       if they are actually colluding, the JD had better go after them

       making market bets is one thing -- actively collaborating in doing so
       is flatly illegal

       Marko Papic wrote:

         Interesting stuff... Why is the Justice Department going after hedge
         funds? Pressure from Europe?

         March 4, 2010
         http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/04/business/global/04bets.html?pagewanted=print

              Traders Seek Out the Next Greece in an Ailing Europe

         By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ and GRAHAM BOWLEY

         Is Spain the next Greece? Or Italy? Or Portugal?

         Even as Greece pledged anew on Wednesday to rein in its runaway
         budget deficit, briefly easing the anxiety over its perilous
         finances, traders on both sides of the Atlantic weighed the risks -
         and potential rewards - posed by the groaning debts of other
         European governments.

         While investors welcomed news that Athens would raise taxes and cut
         spending by $6.5 billion this year, analysts warned the moves might
         not be enough to avert a bailout for Greece or to contain the crisis
         shaking Europe and its common currency, the euro.

         Indeed, some banks and hedge funds have already begun to turn their
         attention to other indebted nations, particularly Portugal, Spain,
         Italy and, to a lesser degree, Ireland.

         The role of such traders has become increasingly controversial in
         Europe and the United States. The Justice Department's antitrust
         division is examining whether at least four hedge funds colluded on
         a bet against the euro last month.

         \"If the problems of Greece aren't addressed now, there is a risk the
         market will focus on the next weakest link in the chain,\" said Jim
         Caron, global head of interest rate strategy at Morgan Stanley.

         Whatever the outcome in Athens, the debt crisis in Europe threatens
         to tip the financial, as well as political, balance of power across
         the Continent. With Germany and France emerging as the most likely
         rescuers, leaders in Berlin and Paris could end up dictating fiscal
         policy in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain.

         And in the months ahead, fears about the growing debt burden
         elsewhere in Europe are likely to return, according to investors and
         strategists. That is particularly worrying given that Western
         European countries must raise more than half a trillion dollars this
         year to refinance existing debts and cover their widening budget
         gaps.

         The way fear can spread from capital to capital reminds Mr. Caron of
         how the American financial crisis played out. \"What people are doing
         in the markets is no different from what they did with the banks,\"
         he said. \"First it was Bear Stearns, then it was Lehman Brothers and
         so on. That's what people are worried about.\"

         France and Germany are emerging as the crucial backers of any
         lifeline for Greece, but they have slow growth and budget troubles
         of their own - deficits equaling 6.3 percent of gross domestic
         product in Germany and 7.5 percent in France. And among voters in
         both countries, \"there is very little appetite for rescues,\" said
         Marco Annunziata, chief economist for Unicredit.

         The most vulnerable country after Greece, some analysts say, is
         Spain, which has been mired in a deep recession. Facing an
         unemployment rate of 20 percent, a budget gap of more than 10
         percent of gross domestic product, and an economy expected to shrink
         by 0.4 percent this year, Madrid has little wiggle room if investors
         shun an expected 85 billion euros in new bond offerings this year.

         Spain's neighbor Portugal is also vulnerable. Large budget and trade
         deficits, combined with a shortage of domestic savings, leave
         Portugal dependent on foreign investors. And, as in Greece, there
         may be little political will to slash spending or raise taxes.

         That's in sharp contrast to Ireland, which had been a source of
         anxiety last year. New austerity measures, including a government
         hiring freeze and public sector wage cuts, have put it in a stronger
         position as it raises 19 billion euros this year.

         The Italian government is also heavily indebted - it has more than
         $2 trillion in total exposure - but it is also in a slightly
         stronger position than Spain or Portugal because its economy is
         expected to grow by 0.9 percent this year and 1.0 percent next year.
         In addition, its budget is not as far out of whack, with the deficit
         this year expected to equal 5.4 percent of G.D.P.

         According to Kenneth J. Heinz of Hedge Fund Research, the big hedge
         funds are now evaluating the response by other European countries in
         extending a lifeline to Greece before they probe weaknesses and
         opportunities in other countries.

         Hedge funds, banks and other institutions are still wagering on a
         drop in the euro as well as the British pound.

         Those trades have been controversial for months in Europe. But the
         debate shifted to the United States on Wednesday, after it emerged
         that at least four hedge funds had been asked by the Justice
         Department to turn over trading records and other documents. That
         request followed a dinner in New York last month where, among
         several other subjects, representatives of some of these hedge funds
         discussed betting against the euro.

         The funds that received the letters - Greenlight Capital, SAC
         Capitol Advisors, Paulson & Company and Soros Fund Management - are
         among the best-known names in the hedge fund universe. Greenlight
         and SAC declined to comment, as did the Justice Department. Paulson
         & Company, whose representatives did not attend the dinner, also
         declined to comment.

         In a statement, Michael Vachon, a spokesman for Soros Fund
         Management, denied any wrongdoing and said, \"It has become
         commonplace to direct attention toward George Soros whenever
         currency markets are in the news.\"

         The dinner, in a private room at the Park Avenue Townhouse
         restaurant in Manhattan on Feb. 2, involved about 20 people and was
         characterized as an \"ideas round table\" by several who attended. But
         people present at the dinner or knowledgeable about the discussion
         said the idea of shorting the euro occupied only a few minutes of
         the conversation.

         The presentation on the euro, by SAC, lasted less than five minutes,
         according to these people.

         Notes provided by one of the firms that attended the dinner
         summarized the discussion on the euro state: \"Greece is important
         but not that important; instead you have to start thinking about
         every other country. What's after Greece? Spain, Ireland, Portugal.\"

         James S. Chanos, a hedge fund investor who has not been making bets
         on the euro, defended the positions taken by hedge funds, calling
         the inquiries into their activities \"witch hunts.\"

         \"Hedge funds and short-sellers are being blamed for the failings of
         other people,\" he said. Nevertheless, the anxiety in Europe is
         reflected on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, where trading in
         futures on the euro soared to a record $60 billion in February - up
         71 percent from a year ago.

         \"The Greek story is putting downward pressure on the euro,\" said
         Derek Sammann, a managing director at the CME. According to CME
         data, hedge funds are in their most bearish position in a decade in
         shorting the euro, said Mary Ann Bartels of Bank of America Merrill
         Lynch.

         \"They have been short for a while, but in the past two weeks have
         really pressed it,\" she said.

                U.S. Probes Hedge Fund Bets Against Euro: Source

         whole article is interesting

         By REUTERS
         http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2010/03/03/business/business-us-markets-euro-investigation.html?_r=1&pagewanted=print

         Filed at 1:32 p.m. ET

         NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. Justice Department has launched an
         investigation into whether hedge funds might have acted together in
         betting against the euro, a source familiar with the situation said
         on Wednesday.

         The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter,
         said the department has asked hedge funds including SAC Capital
         Advisors LP, Greenlight Capital Inc, Soros Fund Management LLC and
         Paulson & Co to retain trading records and emails relating to the
         euro.

         SAC, Greenlight and Paulson declined comment to Reuters about the
         reported request, while Soros Fund Management failed to respond to
         inquiries. The Justice Department also declined to comment.

         The euro has come under selling pressure during the Greek debt
         crisis, losing over 10 percent since November, and the newspaper
         said the request, dated February 26, coincided with its article
         describing gatherings of hedge fund managers where the euro was
         discussed.

         The Justice Department's letter said the antitrust division \"has
         opened an investigation into agreements among various hedge funds
         that trade euro contracts,\" the newspaper quoted a source as saying.

         The letter requested that the funds \"preserve all documents\" and
         electronic communications relating to agreements to trade the euro
         or communications about agreements to trade currencies, the source
         said.

         The letter being described matches the description of a preservation
         order, where the Justice Department asks for information to be
         retained that would help them determine if there was a plan to
         collude or enforcement of that collusion, said Andrew Gavil, who
         teaches antitrust law at Howard University.

         \"Either could be very damning and could lead to criminal
         indictments,\" he said.

         The reported Justice Department probe comes at a time when financial
         institutions are facing scrutiny over their role in the Greek
         financial crisis.

         Critics accuse Wall Street firms of exacerbating the crisis by first
         helping governments mask their debts through derivatives deals only
         to benefit later by driving down the value of securities related to
         them.

         Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S.
         central bank was looking into derivatives transactions that
         financial firms made with Greece.

         But the idea of collusion among hedge fund traders made no sense to
         Evan Stewart, an antitrust expert with the law firm Zuckerman
         Spaeder LLP.

         \"Hedge fund managers tend to.... make their own bets and generally
         guard the secrecy of their own bets because they think they're
         smarter than the next guy,\" he said.

         \"It's hard to understand what the motivation would be for hedge fund
         managers to collude... but maybe there's some evidence that they
         tried.\"

         Adair Turner, chairman of Britain's Financial Services Authority,
         said on Tuesday that the total amount of CDS short positions in the
         area of Greek problem debt was only 3 percent to 4 percent of
         outstanding Greek sovereign debt.

         \"The biggest driver is confidence levels and actions of long
         investors,\" he said.

         (Reporting Jennifer Ablan in New York and Diane Bartz in Washington;
         Editing by Neil Fullick and Tim Dobbyn)

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-03-04 17:59:49",1,"2011-03-15 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1112696_re-when-hedge-funds-attack-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:econ@stratfor.com","econ@stratfor.com",""
1113282,"RE: ANALYST TASKING -  CLIENT QUESTION - Israeli strike against Iran
","   When they loose their HUMINT coverage they will move. 
    
   Thus far, elements of their disruption strategy has been working from what
   I understand. 
    
   When the window closes, BB knows what he must do.  We won't be given any
   warning, similar to their strike on Abu Jihad. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Nate Hughes
   Sent: Wednesday, February 24, 2010 4:56 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: ANALYST TASKING - CLIENT QUESTION - Israeli strike against
   Iran
   The Israelis are wily bastards, so you can't rule anything out.

   They should be able to range most targets in Iran with their newer Jericho
   ballistic missiles, though that's not going to get you bunker busting
   without nukes and they'd only use -- if any -- a handful because that's
   part of their nuclear deterrent.

   Same deal with the sub-launched cruise missiles. But these are thought to
   be more limited in range and also aren't going to get you either the
   bunker busting or quantities you need.

   So you need the air force. The strike package would be impacted
   significantly by the route. This is a big, complex operation no matter how
   you slice it. But the shorter the route, the more targets they can hit.

   But the US would take several weeks to do this. That isn't realistic for
   the izzies. They'll conduct BDA and might be able to get a few follow-on
   strikes but they don't have friends and the airspace issue is key.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Peter Zeihan <zeihan@stratfor.com>
   Date: Wed, 24 Feb 2010 16:44:15 -0600
   To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: ANALYST TASKING - CLIENT QUESTION - Israeli strike against
   Iran
   that's not the question -- the question is that if they go solo, what can
   they hit iran with?

   Nate Hughes wrote:

     If Iran crosses a red line, yes, Israel will act unilaterally if forced
     to. Exactly where the red line for Israel is -- that's a key unknown
     because Israel is laying on the rhetoric pretty think right now in order
     to shift perceptions and get more prompt, effective action.

     As far as we know, Israel's Jericho arsenal of ballistic missiles is
     equipped primarily as part of the nuclear deterrent -- something it'll
     need if it has any doubts about the effectiveness of its attempt to
     destroy Iran's nuclear weapons program. At the end of the day, they do,
     because they know that unilaterally, they'll only be setting it back,
     not making a good shot at destroying it.

     Thus even when it comes down to the unilateral strike, there will be
     some interest in implicating the U.S. in the conflict and getting it to
     come in and act.

     But the attack itself will likely center around an air campaign. Some
     ballistic missiles and submarine-launched cruise missiles may be used to
     supplement the attack, but without the use of nuclear weapons, only a
     large air campaign has the capacity to haul the ordnance to the number
     of sites necessary to even attempt to pull this off -- especially the
     heavy 5,000 lb bunker busters Israel would use to attempt to destroy
     hardened and deeply buried facilities.

     Airspace is an issue, and using Iraq's presents a number of political
     problems (not the least that it is controlled by the USAF). How that is
     addressed will be a significant factor in how this plays out and the
     length of an air campaign that Israel can sustain -- and not just the
     practical issue of range, but the political issue of the use of which
     airspace.

     The Israelis can absolutely sustain air operations at a high rate of
     intensity, but at that range, they have very limited tanker assets and
     generally go for more of the hit and be gone before anybody knows they
     were there angle. But that's not how a complex air campaign works --
     they need to be able to carry out battle damage assessments and conduct
     follow on strikes. Not clear how long that will be feasible which is
     part of the problem to begin with.

     Korena, I'll be offline for a bit, but give me a call if you need to
     talk this.

     On 2/24/2010 5:30 PM, Karen Hooper wrote:

       Team,

       In regards to an Israeli strike against Iran, we have written that the
       range and complexity of such an air campaign means that an air
       campaign carried out in coordination with the United States would
       likely be significantly more comprehensive and more effective -
       something Israel wants. However, should all diplomatic efforts fail
       and in the worst case scenario, do we think Israel would strike
       against Iran without assistance from the U.S. regardless if it is a
       comprehensive attack or not? Does Israel even have the capability to
       solely launch strikes against Iran without the assistance of the U.S.?
       If so, how long of a strike could Israel sustain with its current
       missile load--what capability does Israel have to sustain an air
       campaign to strike all desired targets?

       Feedback needed by COB. Let me know if you have any questions.

       --
       Karen Hooper
       Director of Operations
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com

       --
","2010-02-25 01:39:33",1,"2012-03-27 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1113282_re-analyst-tasking-client-question-israeli-strike-against.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,nathan.hughes@stratfor.com",""
1113596,"Re: movements.org founder Cohen
","The dude is a loose canon. 

GOOGLE is trying to stop his entry into Gaza now because the dude is
like scorched earth. 

Its unclear to GOOGLE if he's driving w/out a license, but GOOGLE
believes he's on a specific mission of \"regime change\" on the part of
leftest fools inside the WH who are using him for their agendas. 

I would hope the Shabak pick him up for \"an interview\". 

Kamran Bokhari wrote:
> Speaking to him @ 6PM this evening.
>
> ------Original Message------
> From: Scott Stewart
> To: Fred Burton
> To: 'Secure List'
> Subject: RE: movements.org founder Cohen
> Sent: Feb 11, 2011 1:34 PM
>
> Actually, he might be worth watching...
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
> Sent: Friday, February 11, 2011 1:22 PM
> To: Secure List
> Subject: movements.org founder Cohen
>
> Is bound for Gaza Monday....he was in Tunisia BEFORE the shit hit the
> fan and was in Cairo four days before Ghonim was nabbed...
>
> Check out movements.org public sponsor...(hint:  The place Stick worked.)
>
>
>
> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>   
","2011-02-11 19:42:49",1,"2012-03-06 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1113596_re-movements-org-founder-cohen-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","bokhari@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
1113965,"Re: discussion: who is next?
","   Iran failed -- we could go back and bring up those reasons why
   (overestimation of the protesters by themselves, underestimation of A-Dogg
   and his base, and no real foreign access into that base to manipulate
   loyalties). There was plenty of access to tweeters, but this didn't speak
   to the regime that stood solid and did not fracture.

   Now in Egypt, there was extensive consultations between the military and
   foreign (the US) throughout the protests. We don't know what was told to
   whom, but we do know it was extensive. All this besides whatever the
   tweeters were sending in.

   I'm not sure if in Tunisia there was as extensive consultations between
   the military calling it quits on Ben Ali and any outside pressure or
   consultations?

   On 2/11/11 4:14 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     One major thing about this- Cohen has been working on this for a long
     time. Maybe not revolutions per se (I don't know his motives), but in
     spreading free speech and political organization through social media.
     He was the one who told twitter not to stop service during Iran 2009.

     Iran failed.

     Tunisia and egypt had underlying causes that social media was used as a
     tool. (Read the Sweekly, blah blah blah). Maybe they have figured out
     now how to target things. But I think they are much more like CANVAS
     providing training and better tools, so when the right situation comes
     about they are ready to go.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Mark Schroeder <mark.schroeder@stratfor.com>
     Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Fri, 11 Feb 2011 13:45:37 -0600 (CST)
     To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: discussion: who is next?
     it would be pretty great to be able to fast-forward a couple of months
     and see who is next, and then walk it back. we all agree on that, we all
     agree on wanting to understand patterns.

     maybe there's just some small group of twitting free-lancers who are
     eager to stir up social protest movements, maybe they have an agenda,
     maybe they're just looking for a huge rush even if it risks trouble like
     being blindfolded and beaten in some stank cell.

     but if they're looking to stir up dissent among old-guard Arab regimes,
     and see where that goes as far as shaking them up, they won't be looking
     outside the Middle East, and they won't be looking at lower-ranking
     states. been there, done that.

     On 2/11/11 1:26 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

       Wait are you saying there is an intntnl conspiracy driving all this in
       a coordinated fashion?

       On 2011 Feb 11, at 14:14, Mark Schroeder <mark.schroeder@stratfor.com>
       wrote:

         Just to look at it in another way. On the one hand, there are states
         that are facing revolutionary/successionist pressures and that we
         can monitor the protests there.

         On the other hand, going off of Fred's thoughts of any
         Cohen/Google/WH thing going on -- who's higher in the ranking of
         significance that we could also look at as next? Tunisia was
         small-fry, to test out methods. Egypt was pretty big fry, and that
         was pretty successful timing-wise, less than 3 weeks. Going from
         Tunisia to Egypt to a chump state (say, Yemen) might not be the
         intention or desire. Not to rule those out -- protesters and their
         supporters will take what they can get --  and I'm not saying that
         protesting will get any easier (or success being likely) when going
         up in a ranking of significance, but now there are 2 case studies
         under the belt and next could be bigger and more juicy targets even
         if they will be difficult.

         On 2/11/11 12:16 PM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

           First Tunisia, now Egypt.
            
           While obviously protests are key to all this, bear in mind that at
           least in the Egyptian case this is more an internal military
           succession issue than a revolution, so we need to examine other
           states in the same light.

           Rather than respond to this thread, please start up new threads
           for each individual state that any of you think might be facing
           revolutionary/successionist pressure.

           Pls funnel your initial thoughts through Bayless so that we only
           have one thread per country.

           Remember: this is the question from all of our clients who are
           interested in the topic of Egypt.
","2011-02-11 23:30:13",1,"2012-03-14 22:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1113965_re-discussion-who-is-next-.html","mark.schroeder@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,sean.noonan@stratfor.com",""
1115826,"Re: US Bank - Dirty Money
","   I have a cost. It is money spent on something and that has a profit.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Kevin Stech\" <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 5 May 2011 15:07:13 -0500 (CDT)
   To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>; 'Karen Hooper'<hooper@stratfor.com>;
   'Sean Noonan'<sean.noonan@stratfor.com>; 'Secure
   List'<secure@stratfor.com>
   Subject: RE: US Bank - Dirty Money

   What do you mean by \"flow through effect\"

    

   From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@att.blackberry.net]
   Sent: Thursday, May 05, 2011 15:05
   To: Kevin Stech; Karen Hooper; Sean Noonan; Secure List
   Subject: Re: US Bank - Dirty Money

    

   Those numbers assume a profit margin of 25 percent which is absurdly low.
   Moreover it fails to take into account that the primary cost is labor
   which has a massive flow through effect.

   The likely profit margin on drugs is about 80 percent for the primary
   transporter. No one is going to risk his life on a 25 percent margin deal.
   Youre better investing in other things without risk.

   Dying for a 25 percent return doesnt happen. Smuggle drugs is dramarically
   more profitable.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Kevin Stech\" <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>

   Date: Thu, 5 May 2011 14:58:49 -0500 (CDT)

   To: 'Karen Hooper'<hooper@stratfor.com>; <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>;
   <secure@stratfor.com>

   Subject: RE: US Bank - Dirty Money

    

   The $40 bn estimate is revenues, not profits. The common profit estimates
   you see are in the $10 bn range.

    

   From: Karen Hooper [mailto:hooper@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, May 05, 2011 12:30
   To: sean.noonan@stratfor.com; secure@stratfor.com
   Subject: Re: US Bank - Dirty Money

    

   WF bought wachovia, and yeah, the case was settled last year with no
   criminal charges pursued. Sounds like Fred's contact is doing a follow up
   investigation. I'm less interested in the laundering so much as the size
   of it and where it ends up. The exit of that much money from Mexico is no
   small thing. We're never going to get a full picture of how the drug trade
   affects the financial system in Mex, but it's worth tracking the pieces.
   Also, the $40 bn estimate of drug profits has always seemed low, and these
   data points reinforce that.

   Sent from my iPhone

   On May 5, 2011, at 13:11, \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com> wrote:

     Btw, if this is new it is wells fargo not wachovia.

     WF already paid fines for some of these shenanigans

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>

     Date: Thu, 5 May 2011 11:55:57 -0500 (CDT)

     To: 'Secure List'<secure@stratfor.com>

     Subject: Re: US Bank - Dirty Money

      

     Two different things here: 1) The Wachovia bust detailed in the article
     I sent out said that Wachovia handled $378.4 bn in transfers from casas
     de cambio (CDC) in 2004-2007 that they're calling shady (though they
     haven't verified just HOW shady all of it is). 2) Fred's contact says
     his contact has seen $70 bn laundered as a part of an ongoing
     investigation, but we don't know yet know over what timeframe.

     Could be that the CDC transfers are majority legitimate, but why
     transfer cash TO the United States? Usually the flow of legitimate
     remittances goes the other way, and that's the amount the DEA case
     sanctioned Wachovia for failing to properly monitor under money
     laundering laws.

     I'll try to dig up more details from the Wachovia investigation.

      

     On 5/5/11 12:43 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     Wait, so it was way more than $70B?

      

     Maybe not all of that was cartel cash... 

      

     From: Karen Hooper [mailto:hooper@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Thursday, May 05, 2011 12:24 PM
     To: 'Secure List'
     Subject: Re: US Bank - Dirty Money

      

     Right. What i'm saying is that Wachovia ALONE handled ~$125 billion per
     year in shady cash from Mexico from 2004-2007. And that doesn't even
     count the money that stayed in cash, went to the Bahamas or stayed in
     Mexico.

     That makes the $40 bn per year stat seem pretty miniscule, no?
      

      

     On 5/5/11 12:00 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     That is $40B a year. Not all of it was laundered by one institution.
     Some is still physically hauled as bulk cash.

      

     From: Karen Hooper [mailto:hooper@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Thursday, May 05, 2011 11:45 AM
     To: Secure List
     Subject: Re: US Bank - Dirty Money

      

     Any word on the rate of flow? $70 bn is much bigger than the $40 billion
     estimates that we've seen over the years. 

      

     The volume of cash handled in the Wachovia case also suggests something
     on the order of $125 bn per year being laundered by a single method.
     That's a LOT of money, and a lot more than we've discussed.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: burton@stratfor.com
     To: \"Karen Hooper\" <hooper@stratfor.com>, \"Secure List\"
     <secure@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Thursday, May 5, 2011 11:25:50 AM
     Subject: Re: US Bank - Dirty Money

     The money laundered was new, framed as exposing next week or words to
     that effect.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>

     Date: Thu, 5 May 2011 09:39:12 -0500 (CDT)

     To: Secure List<secure@stratfor.com>

     Subject: Re: US Bank - Dirty Money

      

     Over what timeframe did your contact handle that $70 billion?

     On 5/5/11 10:31 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     The GOM has hired the ex-CIA group to find additional monies laundered
     by Wachovia. Same group are being used against British Tobacco.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>

     Date: Thu, 5 May 2011 09:27:48 -0500 (CDT)

     To: Secure List<secure@stratfor.com>

     Subject: Re: US Bank - Dirty Money

      

     Here's a good one:

     How a big US bank laundered billions from Mexico's murderous drug gangs
     Ed Vulliamy
     The Observer,     Sunday 3 April 2011
     http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/03/us-bank-mexico-drug-gangs

     A soldier guards marijuana that is being incinerated in Tijuana, Mexico.
     Photograph: Guillermo Arias/AP
     On 10 April 2006, a DC-9 jet landed in the port city of Ciudad del
     Carmen, on the Gulf of Mexico, as the sun was setting. Mexican soldiers,
     waiting to intercept it, found 128 cases packed with 5.7 tons of
     cocaine, valued at $100m. But something else - more important and
     far-reaching - was discovered in the paper trail behind the purchase of
     the plane by the Sinaloa narco-trafficking cartel.

     During a 22-month investigation by agents from the US Drug Enforcement
     Administration, the Internal Revenue Service and others, it emerged that
     the cocaine smugglers had bought the plane with money they had laundered
     through one of the biggest banks in the United States: Wachovia, now
     part of the giant Wells Fargo.

     The authorities uncovered billions of dollars in wire transfers,
     traveller's cheques and cash shipments through Mexican exchanges into
     Wachovia accounts. Wachovia was put under immediate investigation for
     failing to maintain an effective anti-money laundering programme. Of
     special significance was that the period concerned began in 2004, which
     coincided with the first escalation of violence along the US-Mexico
     border that ignited the current drugs war.

     Criminal proceedings were brought against Wachovia, though not against
     any individual, but the case never came to court. In March 2010,
     Wachovia settled the biggest action brought under the US bank secrecy
     act, through the US district court in Miami. Now that the year's
     \"deferred prosecution\" has expired, the bank is in effect in the clear.
     It paid federal authorities $110m in forfeiture, for allowing
     transactions later proved to be connected to drug smuggling, and
     incurred a $50m fine for failing to monitor cash used to ship 22 tons of
     cocaine.

     More shocking, and more important, the bank was sanctioned for failing
     to apply the proper anti-laundering strictures to the transfer of
     $378.4bn - a sum equivalent to one-third of Mexico's gross national
     product - into dollar accounts from so-called casas de cambio (CDCs) in
     Mexico, currency exchange houses with which the bank did business.

     \"Wachovia's blatant disregard for our banking laws gave international
     cocaine cartels a virtual carte blanche to finance their operations,\"
     said Jeffrey Sloman, the federal prosecutor. Yet the total fine was less
     than 2% of the bank's $12.3bn profit for 2009. On 24 March 2010, Wells
     Fargo stock traded at $30.86 - up 1% on the week of the court
     settlement.

     The conclusion to the case was only the tip of an iceberg, demonstrating
     the role of the \"legal\" banking sector in swilling hundreds of billions
     of dollars - the blood money from the murderous drug trade in Mexico and
     other places in the world - around their global operations, now bailed
     out by the taxpayer.

     At the height of the 2008 banking crisis, Antonio Maria Costa, then head
     of the United Nations office on drugs and crime, said he had evidence to
     suggest the proceeds from drugs and crime were \"the only liquid
     investment capital\" available to banks on the brink of collapse.
     \"Inter-bank loans were funded by money that originated from the drugs
     trade,\" he said. \"There were signs that some banks were rescued that
     way.\"

     Wachovia was acquired by Wells Fargo during the 2008 crash, just as
     Wells Fargo became a beneficiary of $25bn in taxpayers' money.
     Wachovia's prosecutors were clear, however, that there was no suggestion
     Wells Fargo had behaved improperly; it had co-operated fully with the
     investigation. Mexico is the US's third largest international trading
     partner and Wachovia was understandably interested in this volume of
     legitimate trade.

     Jose Luis Marmolejo, who prosecuted those running one of the casas de
     cambio at the Mexican end, said: \"Wachovia handled all the transfers.
     They never reported any as suspicious.\"

     \"As early as 2004, Wachovia understood the risk,\" the bank admitted in
     the statement of settlement with the federal government, but, \"despite
     these warnings, Wachovia remained in the business\". There is, of course,
     the legitimate use of CDCs as a way into the Hispanic market. In 2005
     the World Bank said that Mexico was receiving $8.1bn in remittances.

     During research into the Wachovia Mexican case, the Observer obtained
     documents previously provided to financial regulators. It emerged that
     the alarm that was ignored came from, among other places, London, as a
     result of the diligence of one of the most important whistleblowers of
     our time. A man who, in a series of interviews with the Observer, adds
     detail to the documents, laying bare the story of how Wachovia was at
     the centre of one of the world's biggest money-laundering operations.

     Martin Woods, a Liverpudlian in his mid-40s, joined the London office of
     Wachovia Bank in February 2005 as a senior anti-money laundering
     officer. He had previously served with the Metropolitan police drug
     squad. As a detective he joined the money-laundering investigation team
     of the National Crime Squad, where he worked on the British end of the
     Bank of New York money-laundering scandal in the late 1990s.

     Woods talks like a police officer - in the best sense of the word:
     punctilious, exact, with a roguish humour, but moral at the core. He was
     an ideal appointment for any bank eager to operate a diligent and
     effective risk management policy against the lucrative scourge of high
     finance: laundering, knowing or otherwise, the vast proceeds of
     criminality, tax-evasion, and dealing in arms and drugs.

     Woods had a police officer's eye and a police officer's instincts - not
     those of a banker. And this influenced not only his methods, but his
     mentality. \"I think that a lot of things matter more than money - and
     that marks you out in a culture which appears to prevail in many of the
     banks in the world,\" he says.

     Woods was set apart by his modus operandi. His speciality, he explains,
     was his application of a \"know your client\", or KYC, policing strategy
     to identifying dirty money. \"KYC is a fundamental approach to anti-money
     laundering, going after tax evasion or counter-terrorist financing. Who
     are your clients? Is the documentation right? Good, responsible banking
     involved always knowing your customer and it still does.\"

     When he looked at Wachovia, the first thing Woods noticed was a
     deficiency in KYC information. And among his first reports to his
     superiors at the bank's headquarters in Charlotte, North Carolina, were
     observations on a shortfall in KYC at Wachovia's operation in London,
     which he set about correcting, while at the same time implementing what
     was known as an enhanced transaction monitoring programme, gathering
     more information on clients whose money came through the bank's offices
     in the City, in sterling or euros. By August 2006, Woods had identified
     a number of suspicious transactions relating to casas de cambio
     customers in Mexico.

     Primarily, these involved deposits of traveller's cheques in euros. They
     had sequential numbers and deposited larger amounts of money than any
     innocent travelling person would need, with inadequate or no KYC
     information on them and what seemed to a trained eye to be dubious
     signatures. \"It was basic work,\" he says. \"They didn't answer the
     obvious questions: 'Is the transaction real, or does it look synthetic?
     Does the traveller's cheque meet the protocols? Is it all there, and if
     not, why not?'\"

     Woods discussed the matter with Wachovia's global head of anti-money
     laundering for correspondent banking, who believed the cheques could
     signify tax evasion. He then undertook what banks call a \"look back\" at
     previous transactions and saw fit to submit a series of SARs, or
     suspicious activity reports, to the authorities in the UK and his
     superiors in Charlotte, urging the blocking of named parties and large
     series of sequentially numbered traveller's cheques from Mexico. He
     issued a number of SARs in 2006, of which 50 related to the casas de
     cambio in Mexico. To his amazement, the response from Wachovia's Miami
     office, the centre for Latin American business, was anything but
     supportive - he felt it was quite the reverse.

     As it turned out, however, Woods was on the right track. Wachovia's
     business in Mexico was coming under closer and closer scrutiny by US
     federal law enforcement. Wachovia was issued with a number of subpoenas
     for information on its Mexican operation. Woods has subsequently been
     informed that Wachovia had six or seven thousand subpoenas. He says this
     was \"An absurd number. So at what point does someone at the highest
     level not get the feeling that something is very, very wrong?\"

     In April and May 2007, Wachovia - as a result of increasing interest and
     pressure from the US attorney's office - began to close its relationship
     with some of the casas de cambio. But rather than launch an internal
     investigation into Woods's alerts over Mexico, Woods claims Wachovia
     hung its own money-laundering expert out to dry. The records show that
     during 2007 Woods \"continued to submit more SARs related to the casas de
     cambio\".

     In July 2007, all of Wachovia's remaining 10 Mexican casa de cambio
     clients operating through London suddenly stopped doing so. Later in
     2007, after the investigation of Wachovia was reported in the US
     financial media, the bank decided to end its remaining relationships
     with the Mexican casas de cambio globally. By this time, Woods says, he
     found his personal situation within the bank untenable; while the bank
     acted on one level to protect itself from the federal investigation into
     its shortcomings, on another, it rounded on the man who had been among
     the first to spot them.

     On 16 June Woods was told by Wachovia's head of compliance that his
     latest SAR need not have been filed, that he had no legal requirement to
     investigate an overseas case and no right of access to documents held
     overseas from Britain, even if they were held by Wachovia.

     Woods's life went into freefall. He went to hospital with a prolapsed
     disc, reported sick and was told by the bank that he not done so in the
     appropriate manner, as directed by the employees' handbook. He was off
     work for three weeks, returning in August 2007 to find a letter from the
     bank's compliance managing director, which was unrelenting in its tone
     and words of warning.

     The letter addressed itself to what the manager called \"specific
     examples of your failure to perform at an acceptable standard\". Woods,
     on the edge of a breakdown, was put on sick leave by his GP; he was
     later given psychiatric treatment, enrolled on a stress management
     course and put on medication.

     Late in 2007, Woods attended a function at Scotland Yard where
     colleagues from the US were being entertained. There, he sought out a
     representative of the Drug Enforcement Administration and told him about
     the casas de cambio, the SARs and his employer's reaction. The Federal
     Reserve and officials of the office of comptroller of currency in
     Washington DC then \"spent a lot of time examining the SARs\" that had
     been sent by Woods to Charlotte from London.

     \"They got back in touch with me a while afterwards and we began to put
     the pieces of the jigsaw together,\" says Woods. What they found was - as
     Costa says - the tip of the iceberg of what was happening to drug money
     in the banking industry, but at least it was visible and it had a name:
     Wachovia.

     In June 2005, the DEA, the criminal division of the Internal Revenue
     Service and the US attorney's office in southern Florida began
     investigating wire transfers from Mexico to the US. They were traced
     back to correspondent bank accounts held by casas de cambio at Wachovia.
     The CDC accounts were supervised and managed by a business unit of
     Wachovia in the bank's Miami offices.

     \"Through CDCs,\" said the court document, \"persons in Mexico can use hard
     currency and ... wire transfer the value of that currency to US bank
     accounts to purchase items in the United States or other countries. The
     nature of the CDC business allows money launderers the opportunity to
     move drug dollars that are in Mexico into CDCs and ultimately into the
     US banking system.

     \"On numerous occasions,\" say the court papers, \"monies were deposited
     into a CDC by a drug-trafficking organisation. Using false identities,
     the CDC then wired that money through its Wachovia correspondent bank
     accounts for the purchase of airplanes for drug-trafficking
     organisations.\" The court settlement of 2010 would detail that \"nearly
     $13m went through correspondent bank accounts at Wachovia for the
     purchase of aircraft to be used in the illegal narcotics trade. From
     these aircraft, more than 20,000kg of cocaine were seized.\"

     All this occurred despite the fact that Wachovia's office was in Miami,
     designated by the US government as a \"high-intensity money laundering
     and related financial crime area\", and a \"high-intensity drug
     trafficking area\". Since the drug cartel war began in 2005, Mexico had
     been designated a high-risk source of money laundering.

     \"As early as 2004,\" the court settlement would read, \"Wachovia
     understood the risk that was associated with doing business with the
     Mexican CDCs. Wachovia was aware of the general industry warnings. As
     early as July 2005, Wachovia was aware that other large US banks were
     exiting the CDC business based on [anti-money laundering] concerns ...
     despite these warnings, Wachovia remained in business.\"

     On 16 March 2010, Douglas Edwards, senior vice-president of Wachovia
     Bank, put his signature to page 10 of a 25-page settlement, in which the
     bank admitted its role as outlined by the prosecutors. On page 11, he
     signed again, as senior vice-president of Wells Fargo. The documents
     show Wachovia providing three services to 22 CDCs in Mexico: wire
     transfers, a \"bulk cash service\" and a \"pouch deposit service\", to
     accept \"deposit items drawn on US banks, eg cheques and traveller's
     cheques\", as spotted by Woods.

     \"For the time period of 1 May 2004 through 31 May 2007, Wachovia
     processed at least $$373.6bn in CDCs, $4.7bn in bulk cash\" - a total of
     more than $378.3bn, a sum that dwarfs the budgets debated by US state
     and UK local authorities to provide services to citizens.

     The document gives a fascinating insight into how the laundering of drug
     money works. It details how investigators \"found readily identifiable
     evidence of red flags of large-scale money laundering\". There were
     \"structured wire transfers\" whereby \"it was commonplace in the CDC
     accounts for round-number wire transfers to be made on the same day or
     in close succession, by the same wire senders, for the ... same
     account\".

     Over two days, 10 wire transfers by four individuals \"went though
     Wachovia for deposit into an aircraft broker's account. All of the
     transfers were in round numbers. None of the individuals of business
     that wired money had any connection to the aircraft or the entity that
     allegedly owned the aircraft. The investigation has further revealed
     that the identities of the individuals who sent the money were false and
     that the business was a shell entity. That plane was subsequently seized
     with approximately 2,000kg of cocaine on board.\"

     Many of the sequentially numbered traveller's cheques, of the kind dealt
     with by Woods, contained \"unusual markings\" or \"lacked any legible
     signature\". Also, \"many of the CDCs that used Wachovia's bulk cash
     service sent significantly more cash to Wachovia than what Wachovia had
     expected. More specifically, many of the CDCs exceeded their monthly
     activity by at least 50%.\"

     Recognising these \"red flags\", the US attorney's office in Miami, the
     IRS and the DEA began investigating Wachovia, later joined by FinCEN,
     one of the US Treasury's agencies to fight money laundering, while the
     office of the comptroller of the currency carried out a parallel
     investigation. The violations they found were, says the document,
     \"serious and systemic and allowed certain Wachovia customers to launder
     millions of dollars of proceeds from the sale of illegal narcotics
     through Wachovia accounts over an extended time period. The
     investigation has identified that at least $110m in drug proceeds were
     funnelled through the CDC accounts held at Wachovia.\"

     The settlement concludes by discussing Wachovia's \"considerable
     co-operation and remedial actions\" since the prosecution was initiated,
     after the bank was bought by Wells Fargo. \"In consideration of
     Wachovia's remedial actions,\" concludes the prosecutor, \"the United
     States shall recommend to the court ... that prosecution of Wachovia on
     the information filed ... be deferred for a period of 12 months.\"

     But while the federal prosecution proceeded, Woods had remained out in
     the cold. On Christmas Eve 2008, his lawyers filed tribunal proceedings
     against Wachovia for bullying and detrimental treatment of a
     whistleblower. The case was settled in May 2009, by which time Woods
     felt as though he was \"the most toxic person in the bank\". Wachovia
     agreed to pay an undisclosed amount, in return for which Woods left the
     bank and said he would not make public the terms of the settlement.

     After years of tribulation, Woods was finally formally vindicated,
     though not by Wachovia: a letter arrived from John Dugan, the
     comptroller of the currency in Washington DC, dated 19 March 2010 -
     three days after the settlement in Miami. Dugan said he was \"writing to
     personally recognise and express my appreciation for the role you played
     in the actions brought against Wachovia Bank for violations of the bank
     secrecy act ... Not only did the information that you provided
     facilitate our investigation, but you demonstrated great personal
     courage and integrity by speaking up. Without the efforts of individuals
     like you, actions such as the one taken against Wachovia would not be
     possible.\"

     The so-called \"deferred prosecution\" detailed in the Miami document is a
     form of probation whereby if the bank abides by the law for a year,
     charges are dropped. So this March the bank was in the clear. The week
     that the deferred prosecution expired, a spokeswoman for Wells Fargo
     said the parent bank had no comment to make on the documentation
     pertaining to Woods's case, or his allegations. She added that there was
     no comment on Sloman's remarks to the court; a provision in the
     settlement stipulated Wachovia was not allowed to issue public
     statements that contradicted it.

     But the settlement leaves a sour taste in many mouths - and certainly in
     Woods's. The deferred prosecution is part of this \"cop-out all round\",
     he says. \"The regulatory authorities do not have to spend any more time
     on it, and they don't have to push it as far as a criminal trial. They
     just issue criminal proceedings, and settle. The law enforcement people
     do what they are supposed to do, but what's the point? All those people
     dealing with all that money from drug-trafficking and murder, and no one
     goes to jail?\"

     One of the foremost figures in the training of anti-money laundering
     officers is Robert Mazur, lead infiltrator for US law enforcement of the
     Colombian Medellin cartel during the epic prosecution and collapse of
     the BCCI banking business in 1991 (his story was made famous by his
     memoir, The Infiltrator, which became a movie).

     Mazur, whose firm Chase and Associates works closely with law
     enforcement agencies and trains officers for bank anti-money laundering,
     cast a keen eye over the case against Wachovia, and he says now that
     \"the only thing that will make the banks properly vigilant to what is
     happening is when they hear the rattle of handcuffs in the boardroom\".

     Mazur said that \"a lot of the law enforcement people were disappointed
     to see a settlement\" between the administration and Wachovia. \"But I
     know there were external circumstances that worked to Wachovia's
     benefit, not least that the US banking system was on the edge of
     collapse.\"

     What concerns Mazur is that what law enforcement agencies and
     politicians hope to achieve against the cartels is limited, and falls
     short of the obvious attack the US could make in its war on drugs: go
     after the money. \"We're thinking way too small,\" Mazur says. \"I train
     law enforcement officers, thousands of them every year, and they say to
     me that if they tried to do half of what I did, they'd be arrested. But
     I tell them: 'You got to think big. The headlines you will be reading in
     seven years' time will be the result of the work you begin now.' With
     BCCI, we had to spend two years setting it up, two years doing
     undercover work, and another two years getting it to trial. If they want
     to do something big, like go after the money, that's how long it takes.\"

     But Mazur warns: \"If you look at the career ladders of law enforcement,
     there's no incentive to go after the big money. People move every two to
     three years. The DEA is focused on drug trafficking rather than money
     laundering. You get a quicker result that way - they want to get the
     traffickers and seize their assets. But this is like treating a sick
     plant by cutting off a few branches - it just grows new ones. Going
     after the big money is cutting down the plant - it's a harder door to
     knock on, it's a longer haul, and it won't get you the short-term
     riches.\"

      

     The office of the comptroller of the currency is still examining whether
     individuals in Wachovia are criminally liable. Sources at FinCEN say
     that a so-called \"look-back\" is in process, as directed by the
     settlement and agreed to by Wachovia, into the $378.4bn that was not
     directly associated with the aircraft purchases and cocaine hauls, but
     neither was it subject to the proper anti-laundering checks. A FinCEN
     source says that $20bn already examined appears to have \"suspicious
     origins\". But this is just the beginning.

     Antonio Maria Costa, who was executive director of the UN's office on
     drugs and crime from May 2002 to August 2010, charts the history of the
     contamination of the global banking industry by drug and criminal money
     since his first initiatives to try to curb it from the European
     commission during the 1990s. \"The connection between organised crime and
     financial institutions started in the late 1970s, early 1980s,\" he says,
     \"when the mafia became globalised.\"

     Until then, criminal money had circulated largely in cash, with the
     authorities making the occasional, spectacular \"sting\" or haul. During
     Costa's time as director for economics and finance at the EC in
     Brussels, from 1987, inroads were made against penetration of banks by
     criminal laundering, and \"criminal money started moving back to cash,
     out of the financial institutions and banks. Then two things happened:
     the financial crisis in Russia, after the emergence of the Russian
     mafia, and the crises of 2003 and 2007-08.

     \"With these crises,\" says Costa, \"the banking sector was short of
     liquidity, the banks exposed themselves to the criminal syndicates, who
     had cash in hand.\"

     Costa questions the readiness of governments and their regulatory
     structures to challenge this large-scale corruption of the global
     economy: \"Government regulators showed what they were capable of when
     the issue suddenly changed to laundering money for terrorism - on that,
     they suddenly became serious and changed their attitude.\"

     Hardly surprising, then, that Wachovia does not appear to be the end of
     the line. In August 2010, it emerged in quarterly disclosures by HSBC
     that the US justice department was seeking to fine it for anti-money
     laundering compliance problems reported to include dealings with Mexico.

      

     \"Wachovia had my resume, they knew who I was,\" says Woods. \"But they did
     not want to know - their attitude was, 'Why are you doing this?' They
     should have been on my side, because they were compliance people, not
     commercial people. But really they were commercial people all along.
     We're talking about hundreds of millions of dollars. This is the biggest
     money-laundering scandal of our time.

     \"These are the proceeds of murder and misery in Mexico, and of drugs
     sold around the world,\" he says. \"All the law enforcement people wanted
     to see this come to trial. But no one goes to jail. \"What does the
     settlement do to fight the cartels? Nothing - it doesn't make the job of
     law enforcement easier and it encourages the cartels and anyone who
     wants to make money by laundering their blood dollars. Where's the risk?
     There is none.

     \"Is it in the interest of the American people to encourage both the drug
     cartels and the banks in this way? Is it in the interest of the Mexican
     people? It's simple: if you don't see the correlation between the money
     laundering by banks and the 30,000 people killed in Mexico, you're
     missing the point.\"

     Woods feels unable to rest on his laurels. He tours the world for a
     consultancy he now runs, Hermes Forensic Solutions, counselling and
     speaking to banks on the dangers of laundering criminal money, and how
     to spot and stop it. \"New York and London,\" says Woods, \"have become the
     world's two biggest laundries of criminal and drug money, and offshore
     tax havens. Not the Cayman Islands, not the Isle of Man or Jersey. The
     big laundering is right through the City of London and Wall Street.

     \"After the Wachovia case, no one in the regulatory community has sat
     down with me and asked, 'What happened?' or 'What can we do to avoid
     this happening to other banks?' They are not interested. They are the
     same people who attack the whistleblowers and this is a position the
     [British] Financial Services Authority at least has adopted on legal
     advice: it has been advised that the confidentiality of banking and
     bankers takes primacy over the public information disclosure act. That
     is how the priorities work: secrecy first, public interest second.

     \"Meanwhile, the drug industry has two products: money and suffering. On
     one hand, you have massive profits and enrichment. On the other, you
     have massive suffering, misery and death. You cannot separate one from
     the other.

     \"What happened at Wachovia was symptomatic of the failure of the entire
     regulatory system to apply the kind of proper governance and adequate
     risk management which would have prevented not just the laundering of
     blood money, but the global crisis.\"

     On 5/4/11 9:29 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     this is in OS. 

     Many big stories on it. 

     On 5/4/11 7:53 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 One of my trusted former CIA cronies reports Wachovia laundered $70

 billion (yes billion) for the MX drug cartels per an on-going

 investigation.  His company has been hired by the MX govt to look for

 drug money.

  

  

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
","2011-05-05 22:12:26",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1115826_re-us-bank-dirty-money-.html","friedman@att.blackberry.net","","kevin.stech@stratfor.com",""
1116312,"INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: Canvas fostering revolutions
","   SOURCE CODE: SR501

   PUBLICATION: NO

   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: CANVAS leader

   ATTRIBUTION: Not yet, not unless they let us publish

   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A

   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 5

   SPECIAL HANDLING:

   DISTRIBUTION: Secure

   SOURCE HANDLER: Marko

   Translated from source:

   To explain the plan of action we sent, it is a how-to guide for
   revolution, obviously. It is all explained in our Revolution Guide (the
   encyclopedia of mayhem) under the chapter \"HOw to Plan Campaigns\".

   When somebody asks us for help, as in Vene case, we usually ask them the
   question \"and how would you do it\". That means that the first thing is to
   create a situational analysis (the word doc I sent you) and after that
   comes \"Mission Statement\" (still left to be done) and then \"Operational
   Concept\", which is the plan for campaign. For this case we have three
   campaigns: unification of opposition, campaign for September elections and
   parallel with that a \"get out and vote\" campaign.

   In NORMAL circumstances, activists come to us and work in a worksho[ on
   exactly this sort of a format. We only guide them. This is why plans end
   up being so efficient later on, because the activist themselves created
   them and are absolutely theirs, ie authentic. We only give them the tools
   to use them. In Venezuela's case, because of the complete disaster that
   the place is, because of suspicion between oppositoon groups and
   disorganization, we have to do the initial analysis. Whether they go on to
   next steps really depends on them, in other words depends on whether they
   will become aware that because of a lack of UNITY they can lose the race
   before it has started.

   By the way Venezuela's security culture is nonexistent. They are retarded
   and talk out of their ass. It is absolutely a joke.
","2010-01-13 23:49:39",1,"2012-06-18 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1116312_insight-venezuela-canvas-fostering-revolutions-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
1116408,"Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: Canvas ramping up
","   heh, love the 'how to' guide. let's sell it to Chavez
   On Jan 12, 2010, at 3:49 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     SOURCE CODE: SR501 
     PUBLICATION: NO
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: CANVAS leader
     ATTRIBUTION: Not yet, not unless they let us publish 
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 5
     SPECIAL HANDLING: 
     DISTRIBUTION: Secure
     SOURCE HANDLER: Marko 
     See attached document. It is CANVAS's strategy for Venezuela. They are
     ramping up their work there. Very active. The document comes to me with
     the following email: 
     \"This year we are definitely ramping up activity in Venezuela. They have
     elections i September and we are in close connection with activists from
     there and people trying to help them (please keep this to yourself for
     now, no publication). The first phase of our preparation is under way.
     According to CANVAS's \"Plan Format\" model (which activists apply in
     workshops) there are four stages to successful strategy: 
     1. Situational Analysis (which we are doing now)
     2. Concept of oepration (what is to be done)
     3. Execution phase (How the hell we are going to win this war?)
     4. Technology operations (administration, logistics, coordination and
     communication). 
     This is the model, by the way, that we showed George in Colorado and
     that is the basis of our \"powergraph\". 
     This is the foundation for our draft analysis of what we are planning to
     do in Venezuela. That is attached. 
     <VENEZUELA CANVAS NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION.docx>
","2010-01-12 22:51:02",1,"2012-06-18 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1116408_re-insight-venezuela-canvas-ramping-up-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","","marko.papic@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
1116441,"INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: Canvas ramping up
","","2010-01-12 22:49:50",1,"2012-06-18 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1116441_insight-venezuela-canvas-ramping-up-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com","attach/100/100251_VENEZUELA CANVAS NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION.docx"
1116544,"Re: Insight--for internal use only--On pain of agony
","   No wonder Medvedev has 2 trips planned to Turkey this spring..... Russia
   will try to take advantage.

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

     yes... turkey isn't only using Iran as the cause for the break. look at
     turkey's public outrage over the Israeli offensive in Gaza as an
     example. Turkey is already pretty tight with Russia, but this doesn't
     mean Turkey has to necessarily get closer to Russia. Turkey will play
     nice with the Russians but also wants to show it can play on its own
     On Feb 20, 2010, at 11:14 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       I meant to say, if not for Iran, would he look for other
       places/weaknesses in the US/Israel relationship to cause a break? 
       And, if he did break with these two, would it mean necessarily that he
       would move closer to Russia?

       Reva Bhalla wrote:

         US and Israel are the ones that matter. it's about redefining
         Turkey's role as an independent power
         On Feb 20, 2010, at 11:04 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

           Erdogan is looking to break with the US and Israel?  Are there
           other possible places he could do this, if he is actively trying?

           George Friedman wrote:

             Turkey would break with israel and the united states. It would
             be an opportunity erdogan is looking for. 

             Iran would become more visible but not more powerful. A year
             after the attack its underlying weakness would still be there
             and its dependence on turkey greater. 

             In my view the ourtcome of this is turkish power. But remeber,
             my insight is not that israel will attack. Its that kissinger
             thinks they will attack. Huge difference. 

             $

             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
             Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 15:55:16 +0000
             To: Secure List<secure@stratfor.com>
             Subject: Re: Insight--for internal use only--On pain of agony
             All my sources - regardless of factional affiliation - are
             convinced that Iran is preparing for war and one that will make
             the regime more stronger. Did you see Bob Baer make the same
             argument in TIME? Any attack on Iran will make it very difficult
             for Turkey. It will be forced to take a stand against the war
             and there could be trouble with the United States. Such a
             conflict will be a test of Turkey's resurgence and moves towards
             a more independent foreign policy. 

             ---

             Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
             Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 15:47:49 +0000
             To: Kamran Bokhari<bokhari@stratfor.com>; George
             Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>; Secure
             List<secure@stratfor.com>
             Subject: Re: Insight--for internal use only--On pain of agony
             I believe th us will premempt. But there is no clear time line.

             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
             Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 15:43:38 +0000
             To: George Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>; Secure
             List<secure@stratfor.com>
             Subject: Re: Insight--for internal use only--On pain of agony
             Understood. What is your own assessment of the view that the
             Israelis will attack?

             ---

             Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: George Friedman <gfriedman@stratfor.com>
             Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 09:41:03 -0600
             To: Secure List<secure@stratfor.com>
             Subject: Insight--for internal use only--On pain of agony
             Internal use only

             Some nuggets from meeting:

             Kissinger believes that the Israelis are in a panic and will
             attack Iran.  Erdogan has made it clear to him that he plans to
             break with Israel at some point and reorient toward the Islamic
             world. He intends to be their leader.  Paul Volcker regards the
             Greek crisis as potentially a mortal blow for the EU. He would
             like to see an IMF tranche.  He also said that Nicholas Brady is
             behind both this and the Volcker principles Obama adopted.  When
             I asked Brady how he expects to get the the U.S. to go along
             with an IMF bailout, he shrugged and said they won't, but that's
             the only choice.  Volcker is now doubtful the Euro can survive. 
             Brady is convinced it will.  Kissinger thinks Volcker and Brady
             are missing the real crisis which is in Iran and potentially
             Russia. Volcker also says that the Bank of England and the
             French will go along with the Volcker rules on an international
             basis--that is returning to a variety of Glass-Steagal.  The
             Japanese will do whatever is said, and in Germany only Deutsche
             Bank really makes decisions. Sarkozy told him he would come in. 
             So there may be an international convention on restructuring
             banks under way--Volcker is pretty careful in what he says and
             doesn't promote himself more than the average bear, so this may
             be the case.  Nick Brady thinks so too.

             Total confusion on situation in China, but more on Obama.  They
             don't understand who is running China policy. The decision to
             meet with the Dalia Lama strikes them as particularly bizarre. 
             But China is the least of the discussion.  It is about Greece
             and Iran.  China is kind of an afterthought.

             I asked Tim Reed who ran Resolution Trust Corporation during the
             S&L crisis under Nick Brady whether a new RTC would have been
             better as a supplement to TARP and he agreed but said that
             Paulsen was so panicked he wasn't thinking and Bernaecke and he
             were just responding.  

             One sense I'm getting here is that the American elite, along
             with Europe's, China's and just about everyone but Russia's his
             suffering from three problems:  First, none are really aware of
             the political pressures on other elites.  Second, they
             completely misunderstand the alienation of the publics, three,
             except for Volcker, they think this can be handled by the elites
             among themselves.  We have a crisis of the elites, in my view.  

             I get to hold forth in an hour or so, and I'm going to argue
             that Iran is going out of control because of the elite crisis. 
             No decision making is going on and the decisions that are being
             made won't be supported in the public. The only country that is
             acting decisively and can do so is Russia.

             This is for our own internal use.  This must not be published or
             discussed outside Stratfor.
             -- 
             George Friedman
             Founder and CEO
             Stratfor
             700 Lavaca Street
             Suite 900
             Austin, Texas 78701
             Phone  512-744-4319
             Fax  512-744-4334

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com



    

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com



    

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-02-20 20:37:58",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1116544_re-insight-for-internal-use-only-on-pain-of-agony-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","bokhari@stratfor.com,richmond@stratfor.com,reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,friedman@att.blackberry.net,secure@stratfor.com",""
1117571,"INSIGHT - Part II of Turkey trip
","   (sent out first part of insight last week. this is the second part)

   After meeting with the group of energy experts, Emre and I headed to
   Istanbul*s business district, where I had a meeting scheduled through
   Isbank with the CEO of Sabanci Holding Co. Sabanci is the largest business
   conglomerate in Turkey * it is, essentially, the Turkish economy. 
   Sabanci, along with Koc, are the two big business groups that really
   matter in the country and belong to the traditional, Istanbul elite, ie.
   the Kemalist-nationalists.

    

   The office building is, as expected, overwhelmingly gorgeous. We were
   shown to a fancy meeting room with a view of the entire city. In walks in
   the Sabanci CEO, dressed very refined, spoke perfect English. He was
   obviously the elite of the elites. 

    

   Overall, I felt pretty intimidated in this meeting. The Sabanci guy was
   oozing with confidence and made very clear that his company has been and
   will remain the driver of the Turkish economy.  We discussed how Turkey
   was able to cope so well with the financial crisis. He described how
   extremely flexible Turkish businesses were, and how his business agents
   went out looking for new markets when the European markets started
   crashing. He said they found markets in random places like Ivory Coast and
   Togo.  Sabanci*s cement company recorded profit in 2009 by finding new
   customers in Africa.

    

   He kept emphasizing how more competition is good for business. Otherwise,
   businesses can grow complacent. He acknowledged there is a power struggle
   happening, but how the growth of the Anatolian business class was good. He
   didn*t seem the least bit threatened. His whole attitude was that no one
   could compete with Sabanci. If you look at the numbers, he*s right.
   Sabanci is huge compared to the others. At the same time, AKP makes up for
   their lack of financial leverage in sheer numbers. The support of all
   these Anatolian small and medium businesses adds up. He said how Sabanci
   dominates the overseas markets, but doesn*t really have many guys along
   the Turkish borders in the Mideast where the AKP is lifting visa regimes
   and opening the borders.  That policy is designed to help the Anatolian
   business class loyal to AKP. Overall, we didn*t learn anything
   particularly new from this meeting, but it helped immensely just to get a
   direct impression of what Turkey*s nationalist/secularist/elitist business
   class looks and feels like.  They still act like they can*t be touched by
   the government and that they*re unstoppable.

    

   That night I was supposed to meet with the head of Dogan media group at my
   hotel. At the last minute, he cancelled saying he had something come up at
   work. It felt a little suspicious to me, though. I got the feeling that
   Dogan was still really nervous about talking to us since they*re under
   attack and he knew I had been talking to Gulen people.

    

   A side anecdote * That night, Emre and I went to the grand bazaar. I
   wanted to find one of those old Ottoman maps. I found the guy that sells
   them and bargained hard with him for a good hour. We ended up becoming
   friends afterward and went to smoke sheesha and have tea after we made our
   deal. I asked him about how business has been in the past few years and he
   said it*s been hard, they have to pay really high taxes, but that they
   have benefited from having more Arabs coming to Turkey with the lifing of
   the visa restrictions * a good example of AKP strategy working to help the
   small business owners.

    

   Friday, March 12

    

   Early in the morning, we had a breakfast meeting with TUSKON, the main
   business association loyal to AKP and dominated by Gulenists. These are
   the guys who are raising the Anatolian business class. This meeting was
   arranged by Cehan Usak from the Gulenist organization we visited. We met
   with Hakan Tasci, the US representative of TUSKON, and Dr. Mustafa M.
   Gunay, TUSKON*s Secretary-General. They were in a modest office building
   in a not that great part of town (huge contrast to the Sabanci group), but
   they laid out a huge Turkish breakfast for us and were extremely welcoming
   and forthcoming.

    

   Tasci was very familiar with Stratfor. He*s an example of an Anatolian
   businessman who has been well educated, raised in a Gulenist school and
   then sent abroad for the organization. Dr. Gunay made it seem like he
   didn*t really know much about Stratfor. After I explained a bit about the
   company and what I hoped to learn from them, they both launched into their
   own speeches. Again, I was struck by how they answered my questions
   without me even having to ask them. The breakfast lasted for nearly an
   hour and 40 minutes.. they weren*t in a rush to see us leave, despite how
   busy they were. They were clearly told to spend time with us and give us
   the full treatment.

    

   At first, the discussion started out as very business-focused with Tasci,
   the US representative. They talked about how rapidly Tuskon has grown in
   Turkey just over the past 5 years as part of the AKP*s strategy to raise
   its own Anatolian business class. They say that they understand that
   they*re nowhere near the level of the Istanbul giants like Sabanci, Koc,
   etc.,but that they just want to share a small piece of the pie to make
   Turkey more democratic, shared among equals, etc.

    

   Tuskon doesn*t try to compete as much with the markets that the Istanbul
   giants dominate. Instead, they have found new markets in Africa, Middle
   East, Central Asia, etc. This is why the AKP has been lifting visa
   restrictions in places like Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, etc. They want to open
   the borders and use commerce to spread Turkish influence. Tuskon is the
   main vehicle for this effort.

    

   Tuskon organizes these major conferences and business summits all over the
   world and they do this thing that they call *match-making*, where they*ll
   match the Anatolian businessmen with a customer in each of these
   countries, and thus incorporate them into a lucrative supply chain. They
   organize conferences for various geographic regions, then merged all of
   them and created a *World Trade Bridge* where they gather Turkish and
   international businessmen as well as translators to facilitate their
   communication. They showed us a video on this. The video had the exact
   same dramatic music and narrator as the first Gulenist propaganda film
   that we saw a couple days earlier. Emre and I got a big kick out of that.
   From then on, we had to say everything in the Gulenist propaganda voice.

    

   After we talked about the business model for some time with Tasci, Dr.
   Gunay took over and then launched into the Gulenist propaganda. Again, I
   was surprised by how they were very openly representing themselves as
   Gulenist. Dr. Gunay kept talking about what a brilliant man Fethullah
   Gulen was. At the same time, he dismissed the idea of this being a battle
   between Islamists and secularists. He proclaimed himself to be a
   secularist and then said secularists don*t even know the meaning of
   secularism. He said that Tuskon includes Armenians, and even Atheists. The
   main message was that they are not fundamentialists. Then he goes into
   that same exact speech we heard before about peace, love, harmony,
   humanity, democratic ideals, etc. He kept telling me how they approach
   everything with humanistic ideals. They are out to create world peace,
   distribute soup to hungry Haitians, etc. He kept saying *our friends* do
   this and *our friends* do that, referring to the Gulen movement.  He said
   when Hurrican Katrina hit and they received a check for some business
   summit expenses, they returned the same amount of money and made it a
   donation. When I asked about the financing, he said it*s all done
   independently. Tuskon pays its own way for these summits, doesn*t take
   money from the government, etc. (how much of that is true is up for
   debate, of course).

    

   They also talked a lot about the Gulenist schools. They say that the
   curriculums focus on the sciences, English language, etc., not necessarily
   an Islamist agenda. The goal is raise well-bred kids in these schools.
   Plus, they learn Turkish and develop an affinity to the Turkish state.
   Again when I asked about financing for all these top notch schools, he
   kind of waved it off and said that it*s not expensive to build schools in
   places like Africa.

    

   The basic model is this: Anatolian businessmen have family firms that
   produce salt shakers, t-shirts, whatever. They want to be able to produce
   and sell. Tuskon gives them clients. They then send Gulenists to live in
   these countries where they*re selling and set up schools. That way, they
   learn the local language and overcome the language barrier when Turkish
   officials comes to visit. They raise their kids in the best schools and
   then when they come back, they take the lead of the company or are
   integrated within the government. Thorughout all this, Gulen ensures they
   maintain conservative, *family* values while being exposed to a globalized
   world.

    

   .When we talked about the relationship between the Gulen movement and the
   state, Dr. Gunay was insistent that the government does not give them any
   breaks. He said it*s the government that*s dependent on them. He said they
   use the Gulenist schools like embassies. President Gul will ask Tuskon to
   organize his visit to Africa, they then work with the schools they have
   set up there to gather represenatives and organize facilities for the
   events. He also openly acknowledged that they*re used as intelligence
   posts, though he didn*t say that directly. He said that they have many
   deep connetions in these countries with the government, business,
   opposition, etc. So, when Turkey has a problem in X country, say
   Kazakhstan, then they call on the GUlenist school representative or Tuskon
   rep for information.

    

   I brought up the fact that not all countries are comfortable with the
   ideas of these Gulenist schools. Uzbekistan, for example, has banned them.
   Azerbaijan has been trying to get rid of them. He downplayed the whole
   thing, saying that even where the schools have been banned, the
   governments are still *our friends* and allow us to work with other
   schools.

    

   Tasci, who is based in DC, didn*t seem as hardcore Gulenist as the other
   guy. I caught him making some cringing looks when Dr. Gunay was unleashing
   the propaganda. I think he could tell we already knew quite a bit about
   the movement. Tasci seems a lot more business-minded than
   ideologically-motivated. I*ll be meeting with him again soon in DC.

    

    

   Cengiz Candar

    

   Cengiz Candar is a highly respected political analyst and journalist in
   Turkey. He was a former advisor to Ozal  from 1991-1993. Whenever he
   writes an article, every major newspaper in Turkey prints it and listens
   to what he says. Ask Emre, he*s a huge fan of his as well. Everyone I
   talked to in Turkey about Cengiz said he is the best analyst they have. He
   is still highly connected in the current government and seems to be
   involved in various negotiations, particularly when it comes to anything
   related to the Kurdish issue.  Cengiz is an older man, very blunt, to the
   point, geopolitically-minded. He*s basically the Turkish version of
   George.

   Cengiz attracts a lot of controversy because of his views on the Kurdish
   issue. He is one of the rare Turks who openly speaks about a *Kurdistan*
   region and acknowledges Kurdish history. He is very close to the Iraqi
   Kurdish leadership as well.  I focused the discussion on the AKP*s
   strategy toward the Kurds both inside Turkey and in the broader region,
   particularly Iraq.

   He started out with a very long history of the Kurds and the territory
   they claim. He explained how following the Treaty of Sevres, Turkey could
   not afford to give Kurds an identity that would undermine the post-Ottoman
   identity of the Turkish state created by Ataturk. But, he said, the
   Kurdistan region is the natural area of competition between Turkey and
   Iran. He explained how in the first Gulf War, the debate in Turkey was
   over how Iran could use the situation to fill a power vacuum in Kurdistan
   and challenge Turkey. At that time, there were discussions of addressing
   the Kurdish issue openly within Turkey to facilitate Turkey*s strategy in
   northern Iraq. But that strategy didn*t get very far, especially with the
   following uptick in PKK violence.

   But again, in 2003, when the US invaded Iraq, the same security concerns
   arose. Turkey wanted to keep Iran at bay and didn*t want to create a power
   vacuum in northern Iraq. But before Turkey could address the Kurdish issue
   as a security issue in Iraq, it had to first deal with its own Kurdish
   problem at home. It wouldn*t make sense to deny the existence of Kurds in
   Turkey when you are fighting Kurds in an insurgency emanating from Iraq.
   This is when we saw the idea taking root again that Turkey has to
   acknowledge the Kurdish cultural identity and integrate them into society.
   Cengiz appears to be a major driver behind the AKP*s efforts to continue
   with this Kurdish initiative and forge closer ties with the KRG
   leadership.  In essence, the idea is that Turkey can guarantee the
   economic and political security of the Iraqi Kurds, and in return the
   Iraqi Kurds will have to respect Turkey*s territorial rights.

   But this isn*t just about northern Iraq for Turkey. The Turks know that
   Turkmens in Iraq are not the sufficient outlet for Turkey to expand its
   influence in Iraq and in the Gulf. Turkey also works with Iraqi Sunni and
   Shiite leaders, but at the end of the day, the Shiites turn to Iran for
   guidance and the Sunnis turn to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, etc. He says Iranian
   influence in Iraq is not as much as people might think.

   Therefore, Turkey needs Kurds in Iraq. They also need Turkey to export
   their goods. By using Turkish influence over the Kurds in Iraq, Turkey can
   expand its influence in the country and then use Iraq as a launchpad for
   influence in the Gulf. They can*t just skip over Iraq to reach the Saudis.
   Turkey has made progress in areas around its own borders in places like
   Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, etc. But to reach the Gulf, they need Iraq first.

    

   We talked about how the AKP stumbled a bit in its Kurdish opening
   initiative, but it isn*t dead.  He said that the MIT (national
   intelligence) led the effort in negotiating with Ocalan and PKK to allow
   PKK rebels from Maghmur and Qandil to return to Turkey. That caused major
   blowback inside Turkey, though. After that, the PM had the police take
   over the initiative. This is when we saw the crackdown on DTP/PKK in
   Turkey as well as in Europe.

    

   Will be seeing Cengiz again in DC in a few weeks.

    

   IsBank

    

   We met Friday afternoon with the representatives at Isbank. Caglan had
   with her their senior banking and economic analysts. Again, the contrast
   between the humble Gulenist organizations and these huge fancy corporate
   buildings was remarkable. At Isbank, everyone was very young, attractive,
   hip, modern.

    

   They had a full presentation prepared for us on Turkey*s macroeconomy,
   which they had done for their clients.  Most of what they showed us
   confirmed what we already had prepared in our own economic assessment, but
   they really helped us to understand what allowed Turkey to cope with the
   financial crisis so well. A lot of Turkish businessmen were able to react
   quickly to the crisis and find new markets. Still, they a long way to
   recover their losses from 2009.

    

   Our question about the cyclical downturn in industrial production was
   answered. The econ researcher said the automotive industry constitutes 50%
   of Turkey*s industrial production. In times of financial stress, people
   usually sacrifice their automobile expenses. They don*t need to get that
   second car for their wife, kind of thing. Also everyone knows that car
   dealers usually give discounts at the end of the year, and so plan for
   that. Automobile industry is also huge for Turkish employment rates since
   2.5 million people work in this industry.

    

   Turkey passed more than 100 legal arrangements after the 2001 banking
   crisis with the aim of increasing transparency in the banking sector. They
   described how they have to report their transactions on a daily basis, and
   how that transparency really helped Turkey in this crisis whereas the
   European states were dealing with major transparency issues. Turkey also
   wasn*t exposed to toxic assets like the others were. NPL concerns are also
   calming down. Their main concern is inflation... they expect further rate
   hikes this year as the government will be spending heavily in the lead-up
   to elections.

    

   I asked about how the power struggle plays out in the banking sector. They
   were all pretty clearly anti-Gulenist so it was easy to talk to them about
   it. They said the government doesn*t have a concrete channel within the
   banking sector to support their own allies, but they are in a position to
   influence banks through individual channels. Ziraat bank is an example of
   this. They said that they don*t really see cases in which the big banks
   like Isbank, traditionally dominated by the nationalist/secularists, have
   denied financing to the Anatolian businessmen and to AKP projects. They
   don*t create obstacles for investment. At the same time, they see the
   struggle play out when you see businessmen like Calik getting contracts
   with AKP*s help.

    

   I have a lot more detailed info on the Turkish economic assessment, but
   all that info is in my suitcase, which is floating around Frankfurt still.
   The Isbank people are also putting us on their private client mailing list
   so we can get their monthly econ assessments. They are really thorough and
   are a great resource for us to monitor Turkey's economic health.
","2010-03-16 17:38:22",1,"2012-03-10 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1117571_insight-part-ii-of-turkey-trip-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1118135,"Re: B2 Re: B3* - GREECE/EU/IMF - Papandreou: It's time for Europe,
	otherwise there is the IMF
","   heh - the IMF would be a lot meaner than europe

   Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

     confirmation here

     http://www.ana-mpa.gr/anaweb/user/showplain?maindoc=8483656&service=142

     PM leaves open prospect of Greek recourse to IMF if EU backing not
     forthcoming, gov't source says

        Prime minister George Papandreou left open the prospect of Greece
     taking recourse in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) if Greece is
     not financially backed by the EU, speaking to a lengthy Cabinet meeting
     on Wednesday during which supplementary measures for the economy were
     discussed, according to a senior government official.

        The same official added that EU backing is the main goal and
     orientation of the government.

        Another official said that the anticipated reactions to the measures,
     due to be announced in the next few hours, are understandable, but the
     government is determined for the country's survival.

        Government economic circles said that the measures to be announced
     will not affect the pensioners' benefits, while VAT rebates to farmers
     will be increased from the current 7 percent to 11 percent.

     Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

       Poor translation from Google but I think Papandreou says that if EU
       won't give, they'll have to ask IMF - I'll keep looking to confirm
       (see red bold below)

       Papandreou: It's time for Europe, otherwise there is the IMF
       Tetarty, 03 03 2010 12:39 Wednesday 03 03 2010 12:39
       E-mail Print PDF

       Papoulias-Papandreou-003 Tyn anti%drasy ty*s Eurwpajky%*s E%nwsy*s
       perime%nei o Prwthupourgo%*s meta% tyn apo%fasy gia tyn efarmogy% twn
       me%trwn ecugi%ansy*s ty*s Ellyniky%*s oikonomi%a*s, enw% milw%nta*s
       sto upourgiko% Sumbou%lio, to%nise pw*s emei%*s steko%maste sto u%qo*s
       twn perista%sewn. The reaction of the European Union expects the Prime
       Minister following the decision to implement the consolidation
       measures of the Greek economy, while speaking at the Council of
       Ministers, stressed that we stand to the occasion. To mesyme%ri, o
       Giw%rgo*s Papandre%ou enyme%rwse ton Pro%edro ty*s Dymokrati%a*s gia
       ta ne%a me%tra. At noon, George Papandreou briefed the President of
       the Republic on the new measures. \" Ku%rie Pro%edre, du%skole*s
       apofa%sei*s se mia du%skoly stigmy% gia ty xw%ra \" ane%fere o
       Prwthupourgo%*s, apeuthuno%meno*s pro*s ton Ka%rolo Papou%lia kata% ty
       suna%ntysy% tou*s sto Proedriko% Me%garo. \"Mr President, difficult
       decisions at a difficult moment for the country,\" said the Prime
       Minister, he appealed to the Karolos Papoulias during their meeting at
       the Presidential Palace. \"Du%skole*s me%re*s\" ei%pe apo% tyn pleura%
       tou o k. Papou%lia*s, upogrammi%zonta*s o%ti \" pre%pei na apokty%soume
       tyn koinwniky% aciopisti%a me koinwniky% euaisthysi%a kai nomi%zw o%ti
       se auto% tha antapokrithei% o ellyniko%*s lao%*s, o%tan peistei% o%ti
       ei%nai swsta% kai di%kaia ta me%tra kai o%ti pre%pei na prosfe%roun
       perisso%tera autoi% pou e%xoun perisso%tera \". \"Rainy day\" said the
       part of Mr. Papoulias stressed that \"we must have social credibility
       of social awareness and I think this will meet the Greek people, when
       convinced that it is properly and fairly and that measures should be
       offer more people who have more. \"

       \"Du%skole*s me%re*s, alla% anagkai%a ta o%sa apofasi%same. Py%rame
       du%skole*s apofa%sei*s se mia du%skoly kata%stasy\" to%nise o k.
       Papandre%ou milw%nta*s me ton k. Papou%lia. \"Difficult days, but need
       what we decided. We took tough decisions in a difficult situation,\"
       said Papandreou, speaking with Mr. Papoulias.

       O Prwthupourgo%*s symei%wse o%ti y xw%ra ma*s bre%thyke sty di%ny tou
       kuklw%na, twn pistwtw%n kai twn diethnw%n agorw%n kai pro%sthese pw*s,
       \"dei%xnoume, y Ella%da kai o ellyniko%*s lao%*s o%ti mporei%
       acio%pista na pai%rnei apofa%sei*s\". The Prime Minister noted that the
       country we found the vortex of the storm, creditors and international
       markets, adding that, \"showing, Greece and the Greek people that can
       reliably make decisions.\"

       \"Aname%noume dikai%w*s pia tyn eurwpajky% allyleggu%y kai ei%nai y
       a%lly pleura% auty%*s ty*s sumfwni%a*s\" to%nise o k. Papandre%ou kai
       e%kane lo%go gia istoriky% euthu%ny kai ty*s Eurw%py*s. \"We are
       waiting right now for European solidarity and the other side of this
       agreement,\" said Mr. Papandreou spoke of historical responsibility and
       Europe.
       Ako%my, o Prwthupourgo%*s ane%fere o%ti \"ei%nai pia auto% to anagkai%o
       by%ma gia na pa%me se mia ma%xy gia mega%le*s allage%*s\" kai me%tra
       koinwniky%*s dikaiosu%ny*s kai prostasi%a*s tou poli%ty, w%ste na
       ce%rei ple%on o%ti y politei%a se%betai ton i%dio kai ta xry%mata% tou
       kai tou dymiourgei% prooptike%*s gia ergasi%a kai ana%ptucy. Even the
       Prime Minister stated that \"this is no longer necessary step to go
       into a battle for big changes\" and measures of social justice and
       protection of citizens to know now that the state respects himself and
       his money and raises outlook work and development.

       \"Auty% ty ma%xy di%noume kai tha ty dw%soume o%loi, y kube%rnysy mazi%
       kai di%pla me ton ellyniko% lao%\", to%nise o Prwthupourgo%*s. \"This
       battle we will give to everyone, with the government and side with the
       Greek people,\" said the Prime Minister.

       \"Ku%rie pro%edre, ei%nai swsta% auta% pou le%te\" ei%pe o k.
       Papou%lia*s. \"Mr President, it is correct what you say,\" Mr.
       Papoulias. Upogra%mmise de, o%ti \"pre%pei na apokty%soume tyn
       koinwniky% aciopisti%a me koinwniky% euaisthysi%a kai nomi%zw o%ti se
       auto% tha antapokrithei% o ellyniko%*s lao%*s, o%tan peistei% o%ti
       ei%nai swsta% kai di%kaia ta me%tra kai o%ti pre%pei na prosfe%roun
       perisso%tera autoi% pou e%xoun perisso%tera\". Underlined that \"we must
       have social credibility of social awareness and I think this will meet
       the Greek people, when convinced that it is properly and fairly and
       that the measures should provide more people who have more.\"

       O k. Papandre%ou symei%wse me ty seira% tou o%ti pre%pei na ei%nai
       analogika% ta ba%ry. Papandreou noted in turn that it must be
       proportionate weights.

       O Prwthupourgo%*s euxari%styse ton pro%edro ty*s Dymokrati%a*s gia tyn
       prwtobouli%a tou na anala%bei to Tamei%o Sty%ricy*s gia tyn oikonomi%a
       ty*s xw%ra*s, ka%ti pou pro%teine o pro%edro*s ty*s Bouly%*s
       Fi%lippo*s Petsa%lniko*s. The Prime Minister thanked the President of
       the Republic for his initiative to take the Fund to support the
       country's economy, which suggested the chairman of the House Philippos
       Petsalnikos.

       Meta% ty suna%ntysy% tou me ton Pro%edro ty*s Dymokrati%a*s, o
       Prwthupourgo%*s e%kane lo%go gia \"du%skole*s apofa%sei*s pou den y%tan
       aplw%*s epilogy%, alla% y%tan ana%gky na pa%roume\". After his meeting
       with President of the Republic, the Prime Minister spoke of \"difficult
       decisions that were not merely choice, but we needed to take.\"

       O Prwthupourgo%*s ecy%gyse o%ti oi sugkekrime%ne*s apofa%sei*s ei%nai
       anagkai%e*s gia tyn epibi%wsy ty*s xw%ra*s ma*s, ty*s oikonomi%a*s
       ma*s, gia na fu%gei y Ella%da apo% ty di%ny kai twn kerdosko%pwn kai
       ty*s dusfy%mysy*s. The Prime Minister explained that these decisions
       are necessary for the survival of our country, our economy, to leave
       the Greece of the vortex and speculators and defamation.

       \"Na anasa%noume, gia na mpore%soume na dw%soume kai auty% ty ma%xy\"
       ei%pe xaraktyristika% o k. Papandre%ou. \"To breathe, to be able to
       give and this battle\" said Mr Papandreou.

       O Prwthupourgo%*s to%nise o%ti o i%dio*s kai y kube%rnysy di%noun
       mazi% kai di%pla ston ellyniko% lao% ty ma%xy gia mia pio di%kaiy
       koinwni%a, gia ti*s mega%le*s allage%*s pou tha fe%roun ana%ptucy,
       douleie%*s kai prooptiky% ston to%po. The Prime Minister stressed that
       he and the government pay close together and the Greek people to fight
       for a fairer society for major changes that will bring growth, jobs
       and view the site.

       Sugkekrime%na, o k. Papandre%ou styn topothe%tysy% tou sto Upourgiko%
       Sumbou%lio gia tyn efarmogy% twn me%trwn, ei%pe metacu% a%llwn o%ti
       tw%ra y%rthe y w%ra ty*s Eurw%py*s: \" Emei%*s analamba%noume ti*s
       euthu%ne*s ma*s kai steko%maste sto u%qo*s twn perista%sewn, to i%dio
       perime%noume na pra%cei kai y EE \". Specifically, Mr. Papandreou to
       put him in the Cabinet to implement the measures, said among other
       things, that now it is time for Europe: \"We undertake our
       responsibilities and we stand to the occasion, so expect to do and the
       EU .

       Epi%sy*s, episy%mane o%ti an den upa%rcei ousiastiky% politiky%
       sty%ricy kai eggu%ysy apo% ta eurwpajka% o%rgana, ei%nai anoixto% to
       sena%rio prosfugy%*s ty*s xw%ra*s sto Diethne%*s Nomismatiko% Tamei%o.
       It also commented that if there is substantial political support and
       guaranteed by the European institutions, open the application scenario
       of the country at the International Monetary Fund.

       Su%mfwna me plyrofori%e*s, o Prwthupourgo%*s styri%xthyke o%so pote%
       kai anepifu%lakta apo% o%lo to Upourgiko% Sumbou%lio, sto opoi%o,
       su%mfwna me kubernytiko% ste%lexo*s, upy%rce perisullogy%, enw%
       diatupw%thyke y a%poqy o%ti ei%nai katanoyte%*s oi anameno%mene*s
       antidra%sei*s, wsto%so ekei%no pou kuriarxei% ei%nai y
       apofasistiko%tyta ty*s kube%rnysy*s sto na epibiw%sei y xw%ra.
       According to reports, Prime Minister and supported ever more strongly
       from the Cabinet, which, according to government figures, was
       gathering, and expressed the view that understanding of the expected
       reactions, however, that dominates the government's determination to
       survive the country.

       O%loi antilambano%maste tyn krisimo%tyta twn stigmw%n , ei%pe a%llo
       ste%lexo*s tou oikonomikou% epitelei%ou ty*s kube%rnysy*s,
       anagnwri%zonta*s pw*s tha upa%rcoun orisme%ne*s arnytike%*s
       sune%peie*s styn oikonomiky% drastyrio%tyta kai ti*s time%*s, wsto%so
       to%nise, o%ti auty% ty stigmy% proe%xei y apokata%stasy ty*s
       dunato%tyta*s ty*s xw%ra*s gia daneismo%. We all understand the
       gravity of the dots, \"said another member of the economic staff of the
       government, recognizing that there will be some negative impact on
       economic activity and prices, but stressed that this time it is
       important to restore the country's ability to borrow.

       Oi i%dioi ku%kloi to%nisan tauto%xrona, o%ti me ti*s prospa%theie*s
       pou kataba%llei y Ella%da ste%lnetai e%na ceka%tharo my%numa pro*s
       ti*s agore%*s kai tyn Eurwpajky% Epitropy%, o%ti y xw%ra eca%ntlyse ta
       perithw%ria% ty*s apo% tyn a%poqy ty*s ly%qy*s me%trwn. The same
       circles also stressed that the efforts Greece has sent a clear message
       to the markets and the European Commission, the country has exhausted
       the margins in terms of measures.
        

       Pyge%*s: NET, NET 105.8, APE-MPE Sources: NET, NET 105.8, ANA-MPA
","2010-03-03 14:45:58",1,"2001-03-13 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1118135_re-b2-re-b3-greece-eu-imf-papandreou-it-s-time-for-europe.html","zeihan@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1118344,"Re: Google's Cohen Activist Role
","   I am speaking to him tomorrow.

   On 2/10/2011 4:53 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 State is behind these events

 Sean Noonan wrote:

 I sent this out yesterday to tactical.

 On 2/10/11 3:04 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 Oh my, the State Dept is the orgs public sponsor....plot thickens.

 Fred Burton wrote:
    

       JARED COHEN

 *Co-Founder and Board Member*

 **

 Jared Cohen is the Director of Google Ideas, a new entity at Google
 aiming to re-frame and act on old challenges in new and innovative ways.
 He is also an Adjunct Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, where
 he focuses on terrorism and counter-radicalization, the impact of
 connection technologies, and \"21st century statecraft.\"Previously, he
 served for four years as a member of the State Department's Policy
 Planning Staff under both Secretaries of State Condoleezza Rice and
 Hillary Clinton. In this capacity, he advised on the Middle East, South
 Asia, counter-terrorism, counter-radicalization, and the development of
 the \"21st century statecraft\" agenda. He is twice a recipient of the
 Secretary of State's Meritorious Honor Award.

 Cohen is author of the books Children of Jihad: A Young American's
 Travels Among the Youth of the Middle East and One Hundred Days of
 Silence: America and the Rwanda Genocide. He has also written several
 articles, including \"Diverting the Radicalization Track\" (Policy Review)
 and \"Iran's Young Opposition\" (SAIS Review). He received his BA from
 Stanford University and his M.Phil in International Relations from
 Oxford University, where he studied as a Rhodes Scholar.

 Cohen has traveled extensively throughout Africa, where he examined
 issues related to democracy, governance, and genocide. He has also
 conducted research in Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon,
 looking at opposition groups, the spread of technology, and interviewing
 militants ranging from Hezbollah to several Al-Qaeda affiliated groups.
 He is fluent in Swahili. In his spare time, he enjoys painting,
 collecting presidential campaign memorabilia, and reading about Tudor
 England. He has twice served as a juror at the Tribeca Film Festival.



 Fred Burton wrote:
  
      

 Google source advises that Cohen was part of the founding group. Google,
 Facebook, others

 Fred Burton wrote:
  
    
        

 http://www.movements.org/


 Ben West wrote:
  
    
      
          

 This is what i get at that link



 On 2/10/2011 2:27 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
    
      
        
            

 From Source --

 A site created to help online organization of groups and individuals to
 move democracy in stubborn nations.  Funded through public-private
 partnerships.

 Ben West wrote:
    
      
        
          
              

 I don't think this website is registered. It just has an add for
 breitling watches.

 On 2/10/2011 2:16 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
      
        
          
            
                

 http://movements.com/hc3.asp

 ** Source advises this umbrella group is linked to Cohen and Google.
    
        
          
            
              
                  

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX
  
      
        
          
            
                

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX
  
    
      
        
            

 --

 Sean Noonan

 Tactical Analyst

 Office: +1 512-279-9479

 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com


   --
","2011-02-10 23:48:07",1,"2012-03-14 22:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1118344_re-google-s-cohen-activist-role-.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,sean.noonan@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com","attach/6/6434_Signature.JPG"
1119571,"Re: INSIGHT - Turkey - Gulen, business cycle, Africa, IMF, etc.
","   This is not how the Gulenists operate. They are ambitious and working on a
   bottoms-up approach to change the Kemalist nature of the state. But they
   will not openly violate religious principles to promote them. This sounds
   like conspiracy theory. I know many Gulenists and they are nothing like
   this. I don't think this part should be published.

   ---

   Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 13:25:21 -0600
   To: Secure List<secure@stratfor.com>
   Subject: INSIGHT - Turkey - Gulen, business cycle, Africa, IMF, etc.
   PUBLICATION: For Turkey analysis series that I'm working on
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: extremely well-informed and well-connected Turkish
   source based in DC
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:  secure
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
   (this was a meeting to get me ready for my trip to Turkey. For security
   reasons, we're not going to publish the Turkey series on Gulen till after
   I come back)
   Gulen 'sleeper' cells
   I talked to him about what I learned from another source about the
   Gulenist 'sleeper families'. He confirmed that this is the case and
   explained in more detail how it works. Essentially you will have a family
   where the wife will be very modern, no headscarf, the man can go drinking,
   vacation on the French Riviera, get a Russian prostitute, etc., the kids
   will grow up secular, socialize with military kids in school. The whole
   time though you will have them report regularly to a case officer in
   Gulen, who will place them strategically in institutions where they need
   to build influence.  We also discussed the specific ways in which the
   Gulen targets its opponents or potential agents of influence (some good
   things for me to be aware of given stratfor's profile in turkey - very
   similar to the Chinese method of buying influence on a grassroots level).
   In short, it's very difficult to tell who you're talking to. You could be
   sitting down with someone bashing AKP and drinking whiskey, and they could
   be a hardcore Gulenist.
   Gulen's Relationship with AKP
   We've talked about AKP's symbiotic, but often tense relationship with
   Gulen. Need to note that Gulen doesn't like Erdogan. When the AKP last
   faced the threat of being banned, Gulen supported them through the whole
   ordeal, but as soon as it was clear AKP would remain, orders were given to
   Gulen media to attack Erdogan in the news. Gulen is much closer
   ideologically to Gul and Davutoglu. Need to watch this dynamic closely.
   How to tell a Gulenist
   -Gulenists will not refer to the Gulen movement as Gulen, but as Hoca
   Ofendi; anti-Gulenists will refer to it as Gulen or worse, by the leaders
   first name Faitullah
   - see how paranoid the person you are talking to is with their phone. If
   they bring it to a mtg and leave the battery in, they could be Gulenist,
   ie. not afraid to talk. If they are paranoid and disassemble or check
   their phone at the front lobby (this is apparently common now in Turkey),
   then they are afraid of Gulen/police surveillance. 
   - when talking to a man, pay attention to the metal of their ring.
   Hardcore Islamists won't wear gold and will wear silver instead. It is a
   very symbolic thing in Turkey religiously to go from gold to silver or
   vice-versa
   - Gulenists love to use cosmic and galactic sounding names for their
   organizations - anything to do with space, milky way, time (zaman), peace
   and harmony, etc.
   Gulen Influence in Police Intelligence
   I asked how the Gulen developed into such an unbelievably sophisticated
   intelligence organization. He explained in detail how the Gulen were able
   to build so much influence within the police intelligence. The police were
   always the weaker force in Turkey. It was always the military intelligence
   of course that had the most clout. The way he explained it was that the
   gendarmerie, the branch of the Turkish armed forces that patrols the
   countryside (outside of police control) controlled some 97% of the
   country, while the police controlled some 3% of the population in urban
   Turkey. In the early 1990s, the PM at the time, Ciller, while very
   secular, thought it would be a good idea to build up the police intel as a
   way to counter the military and balance power more effectively. The US at
   the time supplied the Turkish police at the time with surveillance
   technology and other forms of technical equipment and expertise (remember
   this was a time when cell phone technology was starting to take off). The
   Turks then developed an indigenous capability and empowered themselves
   through that. The Gulen started early in placing their people in the
   police ranks, realizing that the institution would rise to power. Today,
   the police intelligence is the main institution driving all these
   Ergenekon investigations, tax audits, etc. It's a political tool, and a
   very effective one at that.
   Turkey won't take IMF loan
   Turkey won't take the IMF loan. They'll continue to keep the issue alive
   but string it along and make clear that they're past the worst part of the
   economic storm.  Why won't they take it?  IMF is placing a condition on
   the loan for Turkey to create an independent tax audit body. There's no
   way AKP/Gulen could agree to that. The tax audits are what allows them to
   neutralize their business and media opponents (very Russian-like).
   Rise of AKP oligarchs
   Strongest areas of Gulen/AKP influence -- police, lower judiciary,
   ministry of foreign affairs, newly established universities
   AKP/Gulen is still far behind the nationalists in the banking sector. Emre
   and I are breaking down the top 10 Forbes Turkish business families over
   the past several years, and clearly the mainstay secular families
   (Sabanci, Koc, Dogan, etc) are dominant. That said, the AKP/Gulen may not
   have the support of the multi-billionaires, but the strength of the
   small-med business families cannot be ignored. These together make up a
   powerful force. 
   In our discussion, we broke down the four types of business families in
   modern Turkey
   a) Those that are staunchly secular/nationalist, anti-AKP and anti-Gulen
   (Koc, Dogan)
   b) Those that are secular/nationalist and anti-Gulen but more neutral
   toward AKP out of business interest (Sabanci, Sahenk (NTV), Dogus,
   Ozyegin)
   c) Those that are pro-AKP, fake supporters of Gulen for their own business
   and personal protection - (Calik, Zorlu)
   d) Those that are legitimately pro-AKP and pro-Gulen - (Ulkher)
   The Gulen Business Cycle
   (this is so cool... i'm going to create a visual graphic of this cycle for
   the series we publish)
   This is how the Gulen spreads beyond Turkey in business territory:
   Say I'm a button maker for dress shirts in Denizli, Konya, Kayseri,
   Gaziantep, etc (these are all more conservative provinces where AKP/Gulen
   has strong support). If I support AKP/Gulen, then they will arrange a spot
   for me in the supply chain and set up contracts for me with all the shirt
   makers I need to do business with. If I don't cooperate, they'll deny me
   land, and I'll have the tax auditing office come after me.
   Gulen in Africa
   Now, to spread internationally, we've talked already about how Gulen is in
   the balkans, a lot of the former Soviet space, etc but it's more difficult
   to operate in some of these areas where they don't know Islam or where you
   have strong authoritarian regimes.  Africa, however, is perfect because
   you have little to no transparency, it's virgin territory and it's
   chaotic, lots of Muslims and undeveloped.
   Gulen/AKP will organize a big business forum in X African country. Usually
   organized by Tuscan business lobby group. Tuscan will work with the MFA
   officials and the ambassador there to faciltate your business contacts.
   You'll get a lucrative contract. In return, you donate a sizable sum to
   fund a school in the country. These Gulenist schools (note - i have tons
   of research on this - many of them are also in the US) have top-notch
   facilities and disciplines, ie. where the elites of these countries would
   send their kids. The idea is to indoctrinate the children of these state
   leaders early in these schools so that when they rise to power, they are
   already tied into Gulen. Very sophisticated, deliberate and long-term
   approach to build influence in these countries. A lot of the elites in
   these countries will become paranoid because they can't be sure if these
   kids will turn on them and charge them for not being good Muslims, etc.
   The point is for the Gulen to be able to influence political decisions and
   raise the political elite in these countries. 
   To map out where Gulen is operating, we are going to look at a couple
   things:
   a) where Turkey has opened up new embassies recently (there's been a ton)
   b) new Turkish Airlines routes that have opened recently 
   * note Calik just got a contract for a refinery in Sudan .. beat out the
   Indian bid. AKP/Gulen helped facilitate this deal. They're focused a lot
   on Sudan lately.
   Gulen and universities
   Turkey's long-established universities are run and dominated by the
   secularist/nationalists. But Gulen is creating its new class of
   universities. In past 7 years, the number of universities in Turkey has
   grown from 70 to 140.. nearly doubled. These are all privately funded by
   Gulenist businessmen. I'll be checking out some of these universities
   while I'm there. 
   have a lot more, but these were some of the highlights. 
","2010-02-20 22:41:08",1,"2012-03-16 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1119571_re-insight-turkey-gulen-business-cycle-africa-imf-etc-.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
1120794,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA - nationalism
","    

   CODE: RU157
   PUBLICATION:  yes/background
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Moscow
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Kremlin thinktank
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISSEMINATION: Analysts
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   There is a massive rise in nationalism, but it must be carefully
   explained.

   There is a clear difference between Russian Muslims and Foreign Muslims.

    

   Social discrimination is not about religion. It isn't about being Muslim.
   It is about being a part of a different culture. For example, those
   nationals protesting in the squares recently weren't protesting Islam, but
   different cultures and terrorism. (We discussed how this was different
   than the protests in the US, like the Mosque protest. Those protests were
   against Mosques and Islam-not about them being socially different.)

    

   Muslims live in pockets in Moscow and do not conform to Russian society.
   They are considered criminal and disruptive. Even their kids are
   considered poor students and disruptive in schools.

    

   So the nationals are first against different cultural identities, and then
   second against religious identities.

    
   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-02-23 17:13:55",1,"2012-02-29 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1120794_insight-russia-nationalism-.html","michael.wilson@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1121800,"Re: GOOGLE & Iran ** internal use only - pls do not forward **
","GOOGLE is getting WH and State Dept. support & air cover.   In reality,
they are doing things the CIA cannot do.  But, I agree with you.  He's
going to get himself kidnapped or killed.  Might be the best thing to
happen to expose GOOGLE's covert role in foaming up-risings, to be
blunt.  The US Govt can then disavow knowledge and GOOGLE is left
holding the shit bag. 

scott stewart wrote:
> Cohen might end up having an accident if he is not careful. This is not
> child's play. 
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
> Sent: Sunday, February 27, 2011 9:28 AM
> To: Secure List
> Subject: GOOGLE & Iran ** internal use only - pls do not forward ** 
>
> *** PLS DO NOT FORWARD -- SOLE SOURCE
>
> ** Extracted from an internal email to a senior Google Executive.  The
> msg is from Jared Cohen (the former policy appointee @ State) and
> discusses Cohen's plans on meeting w/Iranians. 
>
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
> ------------------------------------------------
>
>
> I wanted to follow-up and get a sense of your latest thinking on the
> proposed March trip to UAE, Azerbaijan, and Turkey.  The purpose of this
> trip is to exclusively engage the Iranian community to better understand
> the challenges faced by Iranians as part of one of our Google Ideas
> groups on repressive societies.
>
> Here is what we are thinking:
>
> Drive to Azerbaijan/Iranian border and engage the Iranian communities
> closer to the border (this is important because we need the Azeri
> Iranian perspective)
>
>   
","2011-02-27 15:31:56",1,"2012-03-14 22:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1121800_re-google-and-iran-internal-use-only-pls-do-not-forward-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","scott.stewart@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
1122191,"Egypt - Google ** Suggest you read 
","** Cohen had dinner in Cairo the night before the Google Exec was picked
up by GOE State Security.....one-hour after the dinner, the Gypo exec
was grabbed off the streets heading into a friends apt.  

More to follow.....

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/09/07/jared_cohen


  State Department Innovator Goes to Google
  <http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/09/07/jared_cohen>


    Jared Cohen, a high-profile advocate of the State Department's
    forays into \"21st-century statecraft,\" is leaving Foggy Bottom for
    New York. In an exclusive interview with FP, he talks about his time
    at State and his new project: building a \"think/do tank\" called
    Google Ideas.
","2011-02-09 15:05:19",1,"2012-03-14 22:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1122191_egypt-google-suggest-you-read-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
1122461,"Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - AKP spat with largest media group - TR5
","   yep, and im going to be getting additional insight on this from a source
   tomorrow to flesh it all out for the analysis we're working on on the
   media crackdown
   On Jan 19, 2010, at 8:33 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     Confirms some of what Emre heard from his contact at the paper.
      
     SOURCE CODE: TR5
     PUBLICATION: If we want to 
     SOURCE: A senior editor at Hurriyet
     ATTRIBUTION: Turkish media sources
     SOURCE RELIABILITY:  A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Not Applicable 
     DISTRIBUTION: Secure
     SOURCE HANDLER: Kamran
      
     hi kamran
     i am including a pdf file, which may help you track the process, it has
     a good timeline on the tax cases. our web site also has a section
     (\"power to tax, power to destroy\") in which we publish important new
     about the dispute.
      
     There is a criminal case against dogan family members, regarding
     allegations of purchasing cheap paper from abroad but showing it
     expensive, thus \"cheating\" shareholders... but we doubt it will end with
     jail terms. so thats an exaggeration.
     the real issue is the \"forced divestment\" here, as Dogan Media Group is
     forced to downsize as if an invisible agreement is in place with the
     government. i.e. divest and i'll lift the tax cases against you... so
     dogan is indeed in talks with the ipek-koza group, regarded as
     pro-government, to sell part of his empire. the talks may come to a
     conclusion in less than a month, and a group of media outlets including
     Milliyet may be sold for around half a billion dollars.
     The dogan group has decided to use \"professional CEOs\" from outside the
     family. so first aydin dogan resigned. his daughters may also, in time,
     leave their posts to CEOs from outside the family. ertugrul o:zko:k, the
     20-year editorinchief of Hu:rriyet, has also resigned and left his post
     to Enis Berberoglu, the Ankara representative of the newspaper. But
     contrary to what the FT wrote, for example, Berberoglu is a journalist
     that has been criticising the government much harsher than Ozko:k.
     <DMG.pdf>
","2010-01-19 15:34:23",1,"2012-03-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1122461_re-insight-turkey-akp-spat-with-largest-media-group-tr5-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","","bokhari@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
1122770,"Re: Euro finance ministers to agree on Greek aid: source | CALENDAR
	MAR 15
","   Here are some of the options for what could happen tomorrow:

   1. They say they agree to the idea of establishing a facility. Changes
   nothing.

   2. They say they are planning to establish a facility. Changes nothing.

   3. They say they are currently establishing a facility. Changes nothing.

   4. They say they have established a facility. Depends on the details.

   If they announce a facility, it'll likely be composed of guarantees.
   Guaranteeing Greek debt would probably lower CDS spreads and Greece's
   borrowing costs slightly, but the impact would only be at the margin.
   Since the Greek economy will continue to contract, there's no reason why
   Greece's borrowing costs won't, at the very least, stay elevated, and thus
   continue to undermine the efficacy of Athens' austerity measures.

   The fact is that the only thing that will substantially help Greece is
   loans at far below market rates. Unfortunately, even if the Eurozone
   agrees to supply Greece with 0% loans, while it will ameliorate the
   imminent threat of a liquidity crisis (for now), that credit line will do
   nothing to help get Greece back on a sustainable fiscal path.
","2010-03-15 02:40:47",1,"2001-03-13 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1122770_re-euro-finance-ministers-to-agree-on-greek-aid-source.html","robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1127361,"Re: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup plot
","   I agree, but keep in mind that this election will be the last greatest
   opportunity for Gulen to own AKP. Erdogan will not run for PM again, he
   will become president. AKP's votes (without Erdogan's leadership) may tend
   to decrease in the next elections after this one. Also, do not think that
   Gulen wants these MPs out of the blue. The movement will increase AKP's
   votes as well, so it wants its share and maybe a bit more.

   Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     150 is a huge #. I see this as a way for Gulen to subvert the AKP.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Emre Dogru <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
     Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2011 12:50:53 -0600 (CST)
     To: <bokhari@stratfor.com>; Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup
     plot
     I really don't know and I don't think this can be found out accurately.
     We can know this at ministerial level at best. President Gul and FM
     Davutoglu are close to Gulen, for example.

     Kamran Bokhari wrote:

       How many Gulenites in the current parliament?

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Emre Dogru <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
       Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2011 12:42:30 -0600 (CST)
       To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>; Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
       ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
       Subject: Re: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup
       plot
       I think it's not AKP, but Gulen movement that takes this step.

       AKP came under criticism from the opposition and from the US, when
       generals and some other journalists were arrested two weeks ago. Thus,
       it doesn't make sense for AKP to arrest two more journalists (who most
       people believe unrelated to any of plots against AKP) and create more
       controversy ahead of elections. Erdogan is a pragmatic guy, he would
       not want more pressure before elections that would increase public
       fear against AKP. So, Gulen movement puts pressure on AKP by making
       these arrests. The question is why. I discussed this with our Turkish
       friend who came to Austin recently. He says Gulenists want 150 MPs
       from AKP if Erdogan wants less pressure. It's basically a
       post-election bargaining.
       friedman@att.blackberry.net wrote:

         Explain why akp would take this step. It seems to energize oppostion
         rather than strengthen akp. What is their thinking?

         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Emre Dogru <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
         Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
         Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2011 11:38:16 -0600 (CST)
         To: <analysts@stratfor.com>
         ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
         Subject: Re: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup
         plot
         There is a point here that is related to the discussion that Rodger,
         Kamran, Reva and I had while I was writing the PKK piece last week.
         They argued that PKK ending ceasefire could create an opening for
         opposition to use regional unrest as cover to topple the AKP. I said
         this was unlikely.
         Arrests of these two journalists made a huge impact in Turkey. They
         are accused of being linked to Ergenekon. Turkish political agenda
         is currently overwhelmed by these arrests since no one believes that
         they are part of such plan. I can say that so far I have not seen
         the Turkish media being so outspoken about the fear that AKP
         creates, the auto-censure that they have to apply and how they fear
         being arrested because of their opposition against AKP/Gulen
         movement. Some journalists marched on Saturday to protest the
         arrests, all ministers (including Erdogan) had to make some mild
         statements to distance AKP from arrests, which nobody bought.
         But the point here is that even at such a period when AKP is seen as
         most autocratic government and there is huge criticism against it,
         neither there were mass protests on the streets, nor opposition
         tried to exploit it. If there is an opportunity to use regional
         unrest as cover to show how undemocratic AKP is, this is it. But it
         did not take place yet. I think this proves my point.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Nate Hughes\" <hughes@stratfor.com>
         To: \"alerts\" <alerts@stratfor.com>
         Sent: Sunday, March 6, 2011 4:53:02 PM
         Subject: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup
         plot

         Turkey jails two more journalists over coup plot
         http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/06/us-turkey-plot-idUSTRE7251G920110306

         9:09am EST
         By Ibon Villelabeitia
         ANKARA (Reuters) - A court on Sunday charged two more prominent
         journalists with links to an alleged plot to topple the Turkish
         government in a case that has raised worries of media freedom in
         Turkey.
         Ahmet Sik and Nedim Sener, who have written investigative books
         about Turkey's clandestine \"deep state\" activities, were detained on
         Thursday with six other journalists after police raided their homes
         at dawn. They were jailed pending trial.
         Another prominent journalist, Soner Yalcin, who runs a news website
         critical of the government, was charged last month as part of the
         same case, which has turned the political heat on the government
         before elections in June.
         The arrests of journalists in Turkey, a country which has applied to
         join the European Union, has also drawn expressions of concern from
         the United States, the EU and Human Rights Watch about Ankara's
         commitment to democratic principles and free media.
         Human Right Watch said on Saturday such developments had a \"chilling
         effect\" on free speech and urged Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's
         government to respect press freedom.
         Authorities say the arrests are part of an investigation into an
         alleged plot by a murky ultra-nationalist group known as Ergenekon
         to overthrow Erdogan's AK Party government.
         But critics say the case is being used to silence media critical of
         the AK government, which has a huge majority in parliament and
         controls levers of state power.
         Sik is already on trial over a book he co-wrote about the Ergenekon
         group. He had also written stories in a now-defunct magazine about
         diaries by a formal navy commander outlining the existence of an
         alleged coup plan against Erdogan's government.
         Sener has written books about the investigation into the killing of
         Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink in 2007, in which members of
         Turkey's clandestine state apparatus have long been suspected of
         having a role.
         The government is expected to easily win a third consecutive term in
         parliamentary elections in June.
         Erdogan has said the arrests have nothing to do with the government
         but the case threatens to become an election issue.
         Thousands of people, many of them journalists, marched in Ankara and
         Istanbul on Friday in response to the detentions and chanted
         anti-government slogans.
         Public opinion was behind the government after the first Ergenekon
         arrests back in 2007, particularly of retired military and police
         officers, as few Turks want a return to the coups that blighted the
         country in the late 20th century.
         But skepticism set in as the case broadened and police detained
         academics, journalists, civil society workers, and in one case, a
         transsexual singer. Hundreds have been taken in and many suspects
         have been held for more than two years.
         The trials reflect a lingering mistrust between the traditionally
         secular establishment and a ruling party that critics say retains
         Islamist leanings.
         The AK Party, which swept establishment parties from power in 2002,
         is regarded by investors as the most market-friendly party due to
         Turkey's economic success over the past decade.
         Critics accuse Erdogan of having an authoritarian streak and say AK
         has lost its reformist spirit after eight years in power.
         --
         Nathan Hughes
         Director
         Military Analysis
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com

         --
         --
         Emre Dogru
         STRATFOR  
         Cell: +90.532.465.7514
         Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
         emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-03-06 19:57:56",1,"2012-03-07 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1127361_re-g3-s3-turkey-two-more-journalists-jailed-over-coup-plot-.html","emre.dogru@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,bokhari@stratfor.com",""
1128807,"Update - Re: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup
	plot
","   Head of police intelligence in Istanbul, Ali Fuat Yilmazer, was sacked
   yesterday. He was very close to Erdogan. Yilmazer used to manage all
   arrests of journalists, academicians and soldiers in various cases such as
   Ergenekon, Sledgehammer etc. that AKP uses to limit its rivals' moves.
   However, as we discussed before, recent arrests increased fear against
   AKP's authoritarianism because everybody knows last arrests have nothing
   to do with those plot cases.

   In response to your question below on Sunday (why AKP allows these arrests
   if they energize opposition), I argued that it's not AKP, but Gulen
   movement (through police intelligence) that exceeded its limits by
   arresting more journalists in order to put pressure on Erdogan and get
   more MPs in the next parliament. Police and police intelligence in
   particular is owned by Gulen movement. Sacking of head of Istanbul police
   intelligence Yilmazer by PM Erdogan thus proves my theory. This move means
   Erdogan strikes back to Gulen ahead of elections and says he will not get
   under their pressure. Both sides tested each other. Now room is open for
   negotiation.

   Emre Dogru wrote:

     I think it's not AKP, but Gulen movement that takes this step.

     AKP came under criticism from the opposition and from the US, when
     generals and some other journalists were arrested two weeks ago. Thus,
     it doesn't make sense for AKP to arrest two more journalists (who most
     people believe unrelated to any of plots against AKP) and create more
     controversy ahead of elections. Erdogan is a pragmatic guy, he would not
     want more pressure before elections that would increase public fear
     against AKP. So, Gulen movement puts pressure on AKP by making these
     arrests. The question is why. I discussed this with our Turkish friend
     who came to Austin recently. He says Gulenists want 150 MPs from AKP if
     Erdogan wants less pressure. It's basically a post-election bargaining.
     friedman@att.blackberry.net wrote:

       Explain why akp would take this step. It seems to energize oppostion
       rather than strengthen akp. What is their thinking?

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Emre Dogru <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
       Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2011 11:38:16 -0600 (CST)
       To: <analysts@stratfor.com>
       ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
       Subject: Re: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup
       plot
       There is a point here that is related to the discussion that Rodger,
       Kamran, Reva and I had while I was writing the PKK piece last week.
       They argued that PKK ending ceasefire could create an opening for
       opposition to use regional unrest as cover to topple the AKP. I said
       this was unlikely.
       Arrests of these two journalists made a huge impact in Turkey. They
       are accused of being linked to Ergenekon. Turkish political agenda is
       currently overwhelmed by these arrests since no one believes that they
       are part of such plan. I can say that so far I have not seen the
       Turkish media being so outspoken about the fear that AKP creates, the
       auto-censure that they have to apply and how they fear being arrested
       because of their opposition against AKP/Gulen movement. Some
       journalists marched on Saturday to protest the arrests, all ministers
       (including Erdogan) had to make some mild statements to distance AKP
       from arrests, which nobody bought.
       But the point here is that even at such a period when AKP is seen as
       most autocratic government and there is huge criticism against it,
       neither there were mass protests on the streets, nor opposition tried
       to exploit it. If there is an opportunity to use regional unrest as
       cover to show how undemocratic AKP is, this is it. But it did not take
       place yet. I think this proves my point.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: \"Nate Hughes\" <hughes@stratfor.com>
       To: \"alerts\" <alerts@stratfor.com>
       Sent: Sunday, March 6, 2011 4:53:02 PM
       Subject: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup plot

       Turkey jails two more journalists over coup plot
       http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/06/us-turkey-plot-idUSTRE7251G920110306

       9:09am EST
       By Ibon Villelabeitia
       ANKARA (Reuters) - A court on Sunday charged two more prominent
       journalists with links to an alleged plot to topple the Turkish
       government in a case that has raised worries of media freedom in
       Turkey.
       Ahmet Sik and Nedim Sener, who have written investigative books about
       Turkey's clandestine \"deep state\" activities, were detained on
       Thursday with six other journalists after police raided their homes at
       dawn. They were jailed pending trial.
       Another prominent journalist, Soner Yalcin, who runs a news website
       critical of the government, was charged last month as part of the same
       case, which has turned the political heat on the government before
       elections in June.
       The arrests of journalists in Turkey, a country which has applied to
       join the European Union, has also drawn expressions of concern from
       the United States, the EU and Human Rights Watch about Ankara's
       commitment to democratic principles and free media.
       Human Right Watch said on Saturday such developments had a \"chilling
       effect\" on free speech and urged Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's
       government to respect press freedom.
       Authorities say the arrests are part of an investigation into an
       alleged plot by a murky ultra-nationalist group known as Ergenekon to
       overthrow Erdogan's AK Party government.
       But critics say the case is being used to silence media critical of
       the AK government, which has a huge majority in parliament and
       controls levers of state power.
       Sik is already on trial over a book he co-wrote about the Ergenekon
       group. He had also written stories in a now-defunct magazine about
       diaries by a formal navy commander outlining the existence of an
       alleged coup plan against Erdogan's government.
       Sener has written books about the investigation into the killing of
       Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink in 2007, in which members of
       Turkey's clandestine state apparatus have long been suspected of
       having a role.
       The government is expected to easily win a third consecutive term in
       parliamentary elections in June.
       Erdogan has said the arrests have nothing to do with the government
       but the case threatens to become an election issue.
       Thousands of people, many of them journalists, marched in Ankara and
       Istanbul on Friday in response to the detentions and chanted
       anti-government slogans.
       Public opinion was behind the government after the first Ergenekon
       arrests back in 2007, particularly of retired military and police
       officers, as few Turks want a return to the coups that blighted the
       country in the late 20th century.
       But skepticism set in as the case broadened and police detained
       academics, journalists, civil society workers, and in one case, a
       transsexual singer. Hundreds have been taken in and many suspects have
       been held for more than two years.
       The trials reflect a lingering mistrust between the traditionally
       secular establishment and a ruling party that critics say retains
       Islamist leanings.
       The AK Party, which swept establishment parties from power in 2002, is
       regarded by investors as the most market-friendly party due to
       Turkey's economic success over the past decade.
       Critics accuse Erdogan of having an authoritarian streak and say AK
       has lost its reformist spirit after eight years in power.
       --
       Nathan Hughes
       Director
       Military Analysis
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com

       --
       --
       Emre Dogru
       STRATFOR  
       Cell: +90.532.465.7514
       Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
       emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-03-11 11:13:08",1,"2012-03-07 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1128807_update-re-g3-s3-turkey-two-more-journalists-jailed-over-coup.html","emre.dogru@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,friedman@att.blackberry.net",""
1129067,"INSIGHT - IRAN/US: More on pro-democracy group funding
","   PUBLICATION: background/analysis
   SOURCE: CANVAS leader SR 501
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY :  A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY:  A
   DISTRIBUTION:  Secure
   SOURCE HANDLER: Marko
   (This is now Marko's translation):

   Here are a few more details about this whole thing... From the meetings I
   had with this administration and according to my fellow pro-democracy
   contacts, I can tell you that this Administration is acting like an
   elephant in a china store. From one side you have these cuts of
   pro-democracy programs so as to protect from Tehran's assertions that DC
   is funding revolution, but from the other side you have the tactic
   negotiations-sanctions-engagement will bring the situation exactly where
   Cheney wanted it: war.

   I mean imagine the scenario where negotiations failed, deadlines have
   passed and now is time to threaten war. Iran knows that with Russians
   behind their back and thousands of kilometers of border that cannot be
   controlled, Iran has nothing to fear from US. Sanctions will obviously
   follow but they will be A) inefficient, B) strengthen the regime (if you
   do a comparative analysis of how UN sanctions against Serbia strengthened
   Slobo's and Arkan's regime by giving them monopoly over gasoline and
   foreign trade you will see that Tehran CANNOT WAIT for sanctions [MP:
   Arkan is petty thief, war criminal turned OC boss who ran Milosevic's
   paramilitaries and ran the gasoline black market during sanctions, making
   himself and Slobo BILLIONS)). At the end, Israel loses its nerve and
   attacks.

   Which is exactly how Cheney would have wanted! Hilarious isn't it...

   By the way, Republicans are already all over this. Find McCaine's
   performance on Fox over the weekend when the healthcare bill passed where
   on the question of Iran he openly answers that Democrats have left the
   people of Iran to suffer and that the Republicans will ask for a new law
   to help the Iranian opposition...
","2010-01-05 18:19:08",1,"2012-06-18 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1129067_insight-iran-us-more-on-pro-democracy-group-funding-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
1130782,"Re: G3/B3 - GREECE/EU/ECON - IMF to set Greek terms in potential
	challenge	to Europe
","   all he's saying is that the IMF isnt going to do anything special for
   greece, just because its a member of this currency bloc.  if theres an IMF
   program, the IMF is going to run it.  they're not going to get into a
   power sharing situation with the EU, or provide funds without the
   attendant control over the austerity program.  thats it.

   On 3/30/10 07:49, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     no, he's saying if Greece asks, there will be one

     but this idea of the IMF deciding on its own how to carry it through...
     this gets back to my questions over the past few weeks. Strauss-Kahn is
     talking almost as if the IMF can act as an autonomous entity, rather
     than as a reflection of the votes allotted to member states according to
     their quotas

     or perhaps i'm just reading it wrong, and all Strauss-Kahn is saying is
     that it will certainly not be the Greeks determining the rates they
     receive on any IMF loan. (but if this is the case, i don't see why the
     Bloomberg reporter would write that this is \"reflecting tensions with
     European leaders over a possible rescue.\")

     Emre Dogru wrote:

       So, Kahn is making clear that this will be indeed an IMF rescue plan
       and IMF will put the rules.

       Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

         http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aMZ5CNhPtaPo

         IMF to Set Greek Aid Terms in Potential Challenge to Europe
         Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A

         By Agnes Lovasz

         March 30 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund would
         dictate terms of assistance it provides Greece, Managing Director
         Dominique Strauss-Kahn said, reflecting tensions with European
         leaders over a possible rescue.

         Leaders of the 16-nation euro region last week endorsed a
         combination of IMF and bilateral loans at market interest rates
         should Greece run out of fund-raising options, while saying they
         would maintain control over the process.

         Any Greek package would \"be an IMF program decided by the IMF as it
         happens with each and every country,\" Strauss-Kahn said in an
         interview on a flight to Bucharest from Warsaw today. \"The IMF will
         define the conditionality, as we do with any country.\"

         Strauss-Kahn's comments signaled a potential turf battle with
         European leaders. Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who
         chairs the panel of euro-area finance ministers, said last week that
         he \"would have preferred\" a \"purely European\" plan. European Central
         Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, who initially opposed an IMF
         role, said European governments will remain in control of the terms.

         By accepting an IMF role, the euro-area leaders bowed to German
         Chancellor Angela Merkel's insistence that up to half of any loans
         for Greece come from the Washington-based lender of last resort.

         Bond Sale

         Greece, battling the European Union's highest budget deficit, sold 5
         billion euros ($6.7 billion) of a new seven-year bond yesterday,
         testing investors' confidence in the EU aid pledge. The notes fell
         in the first trading day, with the yield premium widening about 5
         basis points to 339 basis points over benchmark German debt. The
         yield rose to 6.078 percent from an issue yield of 6.001 percent.

         The sale took care of all of Greece's funding needs for April,
         Petros Christodoulou, head of the nation's debt agency, said
         yesterday.

         Strauss-Kahn said the IMF won't get involved until Greece asks it
         for assistance.

         \"If, and it's a big if, Greece asks for support, we will provide
         support for Greece as one of our members, as we do with any other
         member,\" he said in the interview.

         He said in Warsaw yesterday Greece might be able to solve its
         financing problems alone in the markets, and \"hopefully\" won't need
         the IMF. The IMF has \"no role\" in a possible rescue for Greece until
         the country requests a loan program from the Washington-based fund.

         In Greece's Hands

         \"There's no step\" to be taken by the IMF at the moment, Strauss-Kahn
         said in the interview. \"Everything is in the hands of the Greeks,
         not in our hand. We never go to a country and say you need a
         program, it's always the other way around. Until a country comes to
         us, we have no role, and it's the same for Greece.\"

         He declined to speculate on how much money Greece may be able to
         borrow. It will be a multiple of the country's IMF quota, which will
         depend on the fund's assessment of the country's needs, he said.

         The Greek government is counting on wage cuts and tax increases to
         shave its budget deficit to 8.7 percent of gross domestic product
         this year from 12.7 percent in 2009, the highest in the euro's
         11-year history.

         \"It seems to be the right thing to do,\" Strauss-Kahn said, adding
         that he currently wasn't in a position to predict if any additional
         measures will be needed.

         To contact the reporter on this story: Agnes Lovasz in London at
         alovasz@bloomberg.net
         Last Updated: March 30, 2010 04:34 EDT

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-03-30 14:54:54",1,"2001-03-13 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1130782_re-g3-b3-greece-eu-econ-imf-to-set-greek-terms-in-potential.html","kevin.stech@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,bayless.parsley@stratfor.com",""
1133861,"Re: [alpha] GOOGLE - Cohen & Hosting of Terrorists
","If you go, pls sell copies of my books. 

On 3/22/2011 9:18 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:
> I am invited to this conference. Perhaps I should reconsider.
>
> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
> Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
> Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2011 09:07:36 
> To: Matthew Powers<matthew.powers@stratfor.com>
> Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
> Cc: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
> Subject: Re: [alpha] GOOGLE - Cohen & Hosting of Terrorists
>
> The conference will feature \"formers\" from urban African American gangs,
> rural white power gangs, neo Nazis gangs, Latin American gangs, Asian
> gangs, and former nationalist extremists from Ireland, Europe, and Asia,
> as well as Islamist extremists from the Middle East, North Africa, and
> Southeast Asia.
>
> ** Star Wars bar?   GOOGLE has become the new Bob Dylan, Sam Cooke and
> The Beatles trying to make social change.
>
> Why can't they worry about making better widgets and Gmail?
>
> I'm calling the GOOGLE founders later today.  What will this do to my
> GOOGLE stock?
>
> Fred's motto # 2 - Money does not buy sanity.
>
>
> On 3/22/2011 8:57 AM, Matthew Powers wrote:
>> http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/21/cfr_and_google_team_up_to_battle_violent_extremism
>>
>>
>>
>> Fred Burton wrote:
>>> >From a senior GOOGLE exec:
>>>
>>>
>>> By the way - Jared (COHEN) heeded the advice not to go to Turkey or UAE
>>> for those
>>> meetings. Other Googlers are hosting those meetings.
>>>
>>> You should see some
>>> stories about us hosting a \"formers\" event in June in Dublin.
>>>
>>> This is a
>>> meeting of 100 former terrorists, gang members, and other basic
>>> troublemakers.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> (Fred's note -- Can we find information on the Dublin event?  May be a
>>> good place for me to do a book signing!  WTF is wrong with these rich
>>> arseholes?  Money does not buy sanity.)
>>>
>> --
>> Matthew Powers
>> STRATFOR Senior Researcher
>> Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
","2011-03-22 15:31:34",1,"2012-03-14 22:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1133861_re-alpha-google-cohen-and-hosting-of-terrorists-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1134490,"RE: DISCUSSION - Risking the wrath of George and playing the
	devil'sadvocate on Iran-Israel-US 
","I'm with Reva.  

BB will attack Iran when he looses his intel window.  

>From my lips to your ears.

Plus, he doesn't trust Obama.  Do you?   

-----Original Message-----
From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
On Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
Sent: Tuesday, March 23, 2010 5:11 PM
To: Analyst List
Subject: DISCUSSION - Risking the wrath of George and playing the
devil'sadvocate on Iran-Israel-US 

I'm going to play the devil's advocate on the Iran-Israel-US issue.  
George is obviously the authority on Israel, but we could all benefit from
some competitive analysis on an issue of this magnitude.

The situation:  US-Israeli relations are under stress following an Israeli
decision to flare up the settlement issue. Meanwhile, the US has backed off
of \"crippling\" sanctions against Iran, is reiterating its interest in
reaching out diplomatically to Iran and is publicly standing up to Israel on
the settlement/Palestinian issue.

Iran, meanwhile, is sitting cool. They rejected Obama's Nowruz message and
are quite content with the way things are playing out between Israel and US.
In other words, we don't see Iran under pressure to respond to the US's
diplomatic opening and since the June election, the Iranian regime has
reasserted its authority over the state.

a)  Domestic Israeli politics certainly plays into the US-Israel crisis.
Bibi is trying to manage a very polarized Cabinet, with guys like Lieberman
on one end and Barak on the other.  The centrist figures like Livni are
sitting in the opposition. REMEMBER, however, that the Israeli elections
were in Feb. 2009.  Bibi has been managing this Cabinet for a while.  It's
not like this is something new, although internal political tensions can and
do arise. Last time this happened we saw the Gaza offensive.

b)  If you look at Israel's strategic imperatives, the threat of a nuclear
Iran outweighs the threat of the Palestinians. The Palestinians, in their
current form, are fractured politically, economically, militarily and
geographically. This allows Israel to  
argue that it has no Palestinian negotiating partner to deal with.   
That suits Israel just fine. THe more divided the Palestinians, the better.
As we've written in our own analysis, the Palestinian threat in its current
form (and without a hostile Egypt) is a nuisance, not a strategic threat.
As Israel has flared up the settlements issue, we've seen Hamas and Fatah
actually working toward reconciliation, which works AGAINST the Israeli
strategic interest.

c)  The potential for a nuclear Iran poses a strategic threat to Iran.
Israel is a tiny place with a tiny population that doesn't want to risk
getting wiped off the map.


George argued in today's meeting that the Israeli decision to flare up the
settlements issue when VP Biden visited was purely political and
non-strategic. As he said, the right hand did not know what the left hand
was doing, and Bibi did not anticipate that the US would respond so
strongly. He was just attending to a domestic political issue to hold his
coalition together.


I disagree.

Keep in mind the strategic imperatives above. You cannot ignore the fact
that this settlements spat between the US and Israel comes right as the US
has backed off crippling sanctions against Iran.  Go back 1 month. Israel
was making clear that deadline after deadline had passed and that the
diplomatic chapter had closed. Bibi also said he wanted crippling sanctions
by mid-Feb while reiterating that the military option remained on the table.
For a while, the US echoed the ISraeli tone on the Iran issue. Then, we saw
a shift.  As the US tried to deal with Russia and China, as new intel
assessments were likely coming in, as Obama examined closely what would be
at stake the day after such a strike, etc., the US backed off the hardline
approach.  Instead, the US circulated a draft of sanctions that were most
clearly NOT crippling, by removing the energy sanctions from the draft.

Israel at that point realized it's running short of options. The US was
saying it's not going to get pushed around on the Iran issue and that it
could afford to buy time.  This is an issue, i would argue, that would
enflame members of Bibi's Cabinet. If Iran is designated as the number one
foreign policy threat, and Bibi, who prides himself as someone who knows how
to deal with the Americans, can't get the US to deliver on Iran, then that
would constitute a political crisis.

It is at this point that we see Israel flare up another issue --
settlements.  This is an issue that would pacify the right-wingers in Bibi's
Cabinet.  I do not believe this sprung up out of nowhere. and I don't see
how this can be viewed in isolation of the shift we saw this past quarter in
how the US has decided to deal with Iran.  No, everything doesn't have to be
interlinked and sometimes politics really is politics. A big element of this
is Israeli domestic politics, but I don't think that's all there is to it
given the factors above.

Finally, we've discussed to some extent what would Israel do if it realizes
it's run into a dead-end on Iran.  It could try to work out a Plan B with
the US.  As George mentioned, Plan B could involve keeping US troops in
Iraq.

Two problems I have with that:  a) that goes against US imperatives -- why
would we want to remain bogged down in Iraq?  we can still use regional
allies like Turkey and Saudi Arabia to keep a balance. IT's not llike Iran
is able to completely dominate the Iraqi state. That needs to be put into
perspective

b) how does keeping US troops in Iraq contain an Iranian nuclear threat?  If
you look at Iran's core imperatives, a long-term US presence in Iraq
(especially as the US is in Afghanistan) increases  
Iranian insecurity, thus increasing the need for defense, ie. a nuke.   
If you look at the military reality of the situation, the US can't easily
neutralize the Iranian nuclear program through military action.  
So, again, what does keeping US troops in IRaq do for the nuclear threat?

Also note that the Israelis themselves have been coupling statements on the
Iranian threat with what's happening with the crisis over settlements.
Netanyahu did this today, and Ashkenazi did this today when he said anyone
who thinks an opposition force in Iran is sufficient to contain the nuclear
threat is smoking crack. I'm paraphrasing, but that is exactly the message
the US is delivering to Israel in trying to stave off action against Iran --
that a military strike will bring about all kinds of mess, and that it would
knock the wind out of a legitimate opposition force. Israel's message is
'yeah, we don't buy that.'

I'm not tying down to old assumptions, but I'm seeing some real flaws in the
new assumptions that are being introduced as we go through this quarterly
process. Let's work this out.
","2010-03-23 23:29:23",1,"2012-03-27 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1134490_re-discussion-risking-the-wrath-of-george-and-playing-the.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1136251,"RE: Plane Crash
","   FWIW - Comrade J (the highest ranking Soviet defector in history)
   confirmed his services assassination of Pres. Zia in Pakistan.   

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Matthew Gertken
   Sent: Saturday, April 10, 2010 11:56 AM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: Plane Crash
   well it is rather suspicious

   Lauren Goodrich wrote:

     The conspiracy theorists will hate that the Russians get to lead this
     investigation.

     Marko Papic wrote:

       Note that this all comes from the Russian side... We won't know until
       we find the Black Box and I have a feeling that Russians are going to
       stall on giving it to the Poles. This could be a start of another
       diplomatic incident. Just a heads up on that.

       OR, Putin could continue his charm offensive, especially if the
       apparently dumb arrogant Polish pilot really is at fault (disobeying
       traffic control order?! So freaking Polish... \"A Russian is not going
       to tell Polish presidential plane what to do!\" sort of a thing), then
       it gives Putin an opportunity to act magnanimously again.

       Either way, Russia WINS big time. Which is becoming quite a trend.

       ----- Original Message -----
       From: \"Michael Wilson\" <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
       To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
       Sent: Saturday, April 10, 2010 11:49:18 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
       Central
       Subject: Re: Plane Crash

       A few articles

       On 4/10/2010 11:46 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

         Has there been further details on the final few minutes of the plane
         crash?  Pilot contact w/the tower?  

       Russia: Kaczynski's pilot ignored ground command
       10 Apr 2010 15:07:51 GMT
       Source: Reuters

       http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LDE6390DM.htm

       MOSCOW, April 10 (Reuters) - The pilot of the plane which crashed on
       Saturday, killing Polish President Lech Kaczynski, ignored several
       orders not to land from Russian air traffic control, a Russian
       military official was quoted as saying.

       Kaczynski, his wife and at least 95 others were killed when the aged
       Tupolev Tu-154 they were travelling in crashed in a forest while
       trying to land near the Russian city of Smolensk.

       \"At a distance of 2.5 kilometres (1.5 miles) the head of air traffic
       control ascertained that the crew had increased the speed of the
       descent,\" the first deputy chief of the Russian Air Force's general
       staff, Alexander Alyoshin, was quoted as saying by Interfax news
       agency.

       \"The head of the air traffic control group gave a command to the crew
       to put the aircraft into the horizontal position and when the crew did
       not implement this order, several times gave orders to divert to an
       alternative airport,\" he said.

       \"Despite this, the crew continued the descent. Unfortunately this
       ended in tragedy,\" he said. (Reporting by Dmitry Sergeyev, editing by
       Tim Pearce)

       http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LDE639054.htm
        
       Pilot error may have caused Polish crash-local spokesman
       10 Apr 2010 09:38:33 GMT
        
       SMOLENSK, Russia, April 10 (Reuters) - Pilot error was a possible
       reason for the plane crash that killed Polish President Lech Kaczynski
       and central bank governor Slawomir Skrzypek on Saturday, a spokesman
       for the Smolensk local government said.
        
       \"The pilot was advised to land in Minsk, but decided to land in
       Smolensk,\" said the spokesman, Andrei Yevseyenkov. The plane crashed
       in thick fog about 2 km (1.3 miles) from the airport in the western
       Russian region of Smolensk. (Reporting by Lidia Kelly, writing by
       Robin Paxton, editing by Tim Pearce

       Both \"black boxes\" found at Polish air crash site - Russian minister

       Both \"black boxes\" (flight data recorders) of Polish President Lech
       Kaczynski's Tu-154 aircraft, which crashed near Smolensk on 10 April,
       have been found at the site of the crash, Interfax news agency
       reported Emergencies Ministry Sergey Shoygu as saying on the same day.

       \"The flight data recorders, both telemetry and speech, have been found
       at the scene of the disaster. The analysis of them, which should shed
       light on the causes of the disaster, has already begun,\" he was quoted
       as saying.

       \"The trajectory of the aircraft's flight, which I have now gone over
       twice, suggests that the deviation from the runway was not only in
       terms of height, but also laterally at least 150 m,\" he was quoted as
       saying.

       According to Shoygu's information, the aircraft was completely
       destroyed and fragments of the plane are distributed over quite a
       large area, the report said.

       \"The destruction, by all appearances, begun from the left wing, which
       has been found 500 m. from the remains of the fuselage,\" Shoygu said.

       Asked by Polish journalists whether the reason for the crash was the
       inadequate length of the runway, Shoygu replied that the Severnyy
       aerodrome could receive aircraft of any class.

       Source: Interfax news agency, Moscow, in Russian 1400 gmt 10 Apr 10

       BBC Mon Alert FS1 FsuPol EU1 EuroPol hb

       Polish leader's plane crash unlikely related to state of airfield -
       general

       Deputy Commander of the Russian Air Force for Air Defence Lt-Gen
       Sergey Razygrayev has said that he does not believe the crash of the
       Tu-154 aircraft carrying a Polish delegation headed by Polish
       President Lech Kaczynski on 10 April was related to the condition of
       the airfield, Interfax news agency reported that day. The plane had
       crashed when coming into land at Severnyy airfield near Smolensk.

       \"The Severnyy aerodrome is first class and I don't think that this
       disaster is somehow connected with it [the aerodrome],\" the general
       was reported as telling Ekho Moskvy radio on the same day.

       But he stressed that \"information on this issue is quite scant, and it
       is still too early to draw any conclusion\", the report said.

       Source: Interfax news agency, Moscow, in Russian 0828 gmt 10 Apr 10

       BBC Mon Alert FS1 FsuPol EU1 EuroPol hb

       http://en.rian.ru/world/20100410/158510776.html

        

       Polish president's body 'found' in crash wreckage - source

       The body of Polish President Lech Kaczynski may have been found in the
       wreckage of the plane that crashed earlier on Saturday in western
       Russia, a highly-placed police source told RIA Novosti.

       Speaking from the scene of the clean-up operation, the source said
       however that \"additional tests, including DNA,\" would be needed to
       identify many of the bodies.

       All 97 people on board died when a plane carrying Kaczynski, his wife,
       and a delegation of senior officials crashed in thick fog while
       attempting to land at Smolensk airport.

       Kaczynski was on his way to a ceremony in nearby Katyn to commemorate
       the memory of some 20,000 Polish officers killed by Soviet secret
       police during World War Two.

        

     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
","2010-04-10 18:59:27",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1136251_re-plane-crash-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1138152,"Re: [OS] FINLAND - Finland May Double Atomic Power to Cut Russia
	Imports
","   The Finns import 100 percent of the natural gas from Russia. They are also
   relatively flat, so while they do have a lot of water and rivers they
   usually don't run in a way that would be conducive to large hydropower
   dams. This means that they only get 18 percent of power from hydro.

   This is also one of the best examples of how say an anti-nuclear power NGO
   would serve Russian interests. Were Finland to build 3 more nuclear
   reactors, it would no longer be dependent on Russia for electricity.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Laura Jack\" <laura.jack@stratfor.com>
   To: \"The OS List\" <os@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2010 5:59:11 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: [OS] FINLAND - Finland May Double Atomic Power to Cut Russia
   Imports

   http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601095&sid=ajnVybZbdA0M

   Finland May Double Atomic Power to Cut Russia Imports (Update1)
   Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A

   By Kati Pohjanpalo and Diana ben-Aaron

   April 15 (Bloomberg) -- Finland, the European Uniona**s biggest power
   consumer per capita, may double nuclear energy production in the next 10
   years to wean the Nordic nation off Russian electricity imports that
   reached a record high in 2009.

   Fortum Oyj, Finlanda**s largest utility, Teollisuuden Voima Oyj, and a
   group led by E.ON AG want permission to build three reactors in addition
   to the current four. The government plans to make a decision this month.

   a**Ita**s first and foremost to be able to replace Russian electricity
   imports,a** Finance Minister Jyrki Katainen said in an interview. a**We
   should not be dependent on them and there is no sense in paying Russia for
   electricity we could produce ourselves.a** He is chairman of the National
   Coalition Party, the smaller government coalition member, which supports
   granting permits to all applicants provided they meet all criteria.

   Finlanda**s reliance on imports, which come mainly from Russia and supply
   15 percent of all power, make the country vulnerable because of its
   energy-intensive industries such as papermaking and winters where
   temperatures in the north can remain below freezing for six months,
   supporters of the building program say. Opponents say nuclear energy is
   too dangerous and Finland should seek other options.

   a**Ita**s worrying that three-quarters of Finlanda**s imported energy
   comes from Russia, including 100 percent of natural gas,a** said Ilkka
   Kananen, head of the National Emergency Supply Agency. a**Electricity
   imports are a structural vulnerability and a risk to supply security.a**

   Russia cut gas deliveries to Ukraine three times in five years in a
   pricing dispute, the last row in January 2009, which lasted three weeks,
   causing disrupted supplies and widespread shortages in eastern and Western
   Europe.

   Minus 50

   Electricity consumption in Finland is the highest in the EU and more than
   double Germanya**s per capita use, in part because temperatures in winter
   can drop to as low as minus 50 degrees Centigrade (minus 58 degrees
   Fahrenheit). The nationa**s main option for increased energy independence
   lies with nuclear power because it lacks the oil and gas supplies of
   Russia and Norway.

   a**We have to reach our security of supply goal even in peak load
   situations,a** said Juha Naukkarinen, head of Finnish Energy Industries,
   which represents power producers. a**All applicants should get the permit
   and let them evaluate when to build.a**

   In 2009, Finlanda**s nuclear reactors generated one-third of the
   nationa**s 68.7 terawatt hours of electricity output, while hydropower
   accounted for 18 percent, Statistics Finland data show. Finland consumed a
   total of 80.8 million terawatt hours, with the difference made up by
   imports.

   At Least One

   Russian electricity cost Finland 365 million euros ($497 million) last
   year and accounted for three-quarters of all imported electricity, the
   statistics office said.

   Finance Minister Katainen is at odds with Prime Minister Matti
   Vanhanena**s Centre party, which is pushing for a mixture of new nuclear
   power and renewable energy. Economy Minister Mauri Pekkarinen, a Centre
   Party member, has said the government is unlikely to issue three new
   permits.

   a**We can easily see from the debate what the outcome will be,a** said
   Tapio Litmanen, a sociology professor at the University of Jyvaeskylae in
   central Finland who has edited a book on the nuclear power industry. a**At
   least one new license will be given.a**

   Finland, which has four working reactors, was second behind the U.K. among
   western nations to start building additional nuclear plants following the
   Chernobyl meltdown in Ukraine in 1986.

   a**Unnecessarya**

   Teollisuuden Voima, or TVO, one of the three applicants, is building the
   countrya**s fifth reactor, the worlda**s largest, on the west coast with
   Areva SA. The original target cost was 3 billion euros, though Areva has
   set aside 2.3 billion euros for cost overruns, the company said on March
   4.

   Environmental groups also point to construction delays at the TVO
   Olkiluoto-3 reactor, set to open three years late in 2012, as an example
   of the complexities and hazards associated with nuclear energy.

   Nuclear power is a**unnecessary for Finland at this time,a** said Janne
   Bjoerklund, the Finnish Association for Nature Conservationa**s nuclear
   campaign coordinator. a**Even one new atomic reactor will make Finland a
   nuclear power exporter.a**

   After Finnish electricity consumption fell 7.4 percent last year, the
   biggest drop since World War II as the recession trimmed output and the
   forest industry shuttered capacity, critics say thata**s evidence new
   reactors are not needed and the industrya**s consumption forecast is too
   high.

   TVO and Fortum, which are partly government owned, have selected sites and
   waste repository locations for their new plants. Fennovoima, 34 percent
   owned by E.ON, has narrowed possible locations down to two in northern
   Finland.

   Capacity

   E.ON, which runs power plants in Germany, the U.K. and Sweden, posted net
   income of 5.33 billion euros last year, adjusted to exclude changes in the
   value of fuel hedging. Shares of the Dusseldorf, Germany-based company
   have declined 2.5 percent so far this year. E.ON gained 0.5 percent to
   28.54 euros as of 11:13 a.m. in Frankfurt.

   Finlanda**s four reactors have a capacity of about 2,700 megawatts.
   Olkiluoto-3 will produce 1,600 megawatts. The proposed three new reactors
   would add from 3,500 megawatts to 6,100 megawatts. The government predicts
   electricity usage of about 100 terawatt hours in 2030, while the Finnish
   energy industry forecasts it will grow faster.

   New power sources are also needed to replace plants that come to the end
   of their lifespan and are taken offline. Fortuma**s two Loviisa reactors
   will be shuttered in 2027 and 2030. Of Finlanda**s current power plants,
   only Olkiluoto-3 and some hydropower plants will be generating electricity
   in 2050, Finnish Energy Industriesa** data shows.

   To contact the reporters on this story: Kati Pohjanpalo in Helsinki at
   kpohjanpalo@bloomberg.net; Diana ben-Aaron in Helsinki at
   dbenaaron1@bloomberg.net.
   Last Updated: April 15, 2010 05:26 EDT

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-04-15 13:40:33",1,"2012-08-01 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1138152_re-os-finland-finland-may-double-atomic-power-to-cut-russia.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1138211,"RE: G3 - US/ISRAEL-'No PM-Obama meeting scheduled'
","   BB dislikes Obama immensely.  After hosting Biden, the last thing he wants
   to do is kiss Obama's arse. 
    
   From my lips to your ears. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Rodger Baker
   Sent: Friday, March 19, 2010 5:14 PM
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Cc: alerts
   Subject: Re: G3 - US/ISRAEL-'No PM-Obama meeting scheduled'
   no caveat. just facts - Whitehouse says no meeting scheduled at this
   time. 
   On Mar 19, 2010, at 5:11 PM, Reginald Thompson wrote:

we should caveat this, saying \"no meeting was planned\", cause the possibility of
a meeting wasn't ruled out

     'No PM-Obama meeting scheduled'                                          

     http://www.jpost.com/LandedPages/PrintArticle.aspx?id=171318
     3.19.10
     The White House said Friday that no meeting has been scheduled between
     US President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu for next
     week, despite a Fox News report of a planned parley. White House
     officials, however, didn't rule out the potential for such a meeting to
     be added to the schedule early next week, when Netanyahu is in town to
     address the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
     On Thursday night, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke with
     Netanyahu over the phone. The two discussed the Ramat Shlomo
     construction crisis, and Netanyahu proposed mutual confidence building
     measures between Israel and the Palestinians in the West Bank. The media
     was not provided with specifics as to the measures considered, although
     the Prime Minister's Office noted that these had been agreed upon by
     Netanyahu's inner cabinet.

     With the Netanyahu government still drafting a formula on construction
     in Jerusalem to satisfy the Americans, the Prime Minister's Office said
     on Thursday that US Middle East envoy George Mitchell is scheduled to
     arrive here on Sunday to work toward indirect talks between Israel and
     the Palestinians.

     Mitchell was originally expected last week, but postponed his trip amid
     reports that he was awaiting Israeli answers to demands that Clinton had
     made, following the Ramat Shlomo construction flap.

     One of her demands was reportedly for Netanyahu to cancel the Ramat
     Shlomo project.

     Mitchell is scheduled to meet both Netanyahu and  Barak before the two
     of them leave for the US Sunday evening to attend the American Israel
     Public Affairs Committee's annual policy conference.

     Netanyahu on Thursday asked Barak to accompany him on the visit, which
     will take place during one of the most difficult patches in US-Israeli
     relations in years.

     Although no meetings with top-level US officials have yet been set,
     Netanyahu - despite the current tension - is expected to meet both
     Clinton and Vice President Joe Biden.

     The White House confirmed that Biden held a telephone conversation with
     Netanyahu on Tuesday, and agreed to meet with him.

     The last time Netanyahu went to Washington, to address the Jewish
     Federations of North America's annual conference in November, lack of
     the coordination with the White House resulted in an awkwardly arranged
     last-minute meeting.

     A repeat performance was to have been avoided next week by Obama's being
     out of town during Netanyahu's visit. But now, as Netanyahu returns to
     speak to AIPAC on Monday, amid even greater tensions with the US
     administration than existed in November, a similar potential for
     diplomatic discomfort arises.

     At this point, the White House is saying nothing about the president's
     schedule next week, with aides noting the decision to cancel the planned
     trip to Indonesia and Australia had only just been announced. The Prime
     Minister's Office also said it was too early to discuss a meeting, and
     that the focus of Netanyahu's visit was on the AIPAC conference.

     Obama's trip was scrapped so he could concentrate on turning up
     sufficient votes for his major domestic priority, a teetering health
     care bill that he wants to see Congress pass before its spring recess at
     the end of March. That means, at the very least, that large chunks of
     Obama's calendar in the coming days will be devoted to dealing with the
     legislation, not the Middle East.

     Obama, meanwhile, tried to dial down the crisis atmosphere in US-Israeli
     relations, saying on Wednesday night that the American and Israel people
     have a \"special bond\" even if recent actions in Jerusalem harmed the
     peace process.

     Obama told Fox News that \"friends are going to disagree sometimes\" and
     criticized Interior Minister Eli Yishai of Shas for taking moves that
     \"weren't helpful\" to the peace process.

     But Obama noted that Netanyahu \"acknowledged as much and apologized for
     it.\"

     A planning committee within Yishai's ministry approved 1,600 units of
     housing in east Jerusalem during Biden's visit to Israel last week,
     embarrassing the US government and setting off the current diplomatic
     row.

     Obama stressed that \"we need both sides to take steps to make sure that
     we can rebuild trust,\" and criticized the Palestinians for rioting at
     the rededication of the Hurva Synagogue in the the Old City's Jewish
     Quarter.

     Asked whether there was a crisis in the Jerusalem-Washington
     relationship, Obama answered negatively, saying, \"Israel is one of our
     closest allies\" and that \"we and the Israeli people have a special bond
     that's not going to go away.\"

     Obama added that he \"specifically sent\" Biden to Israel \"to send a
     message of support and reassurance about my belief that Israel's
     security is sacrosanct and that we have a host of shared interests.\"

     Also in the Fox interview, Obama reiterated America's intention to
     prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons in the face of setbacks to
     its strategy of engaging Teheran.

     \"We are going to go after aggressive sanctions. We haven't taken any
     options off the table,\" he said, a phrase leaving open the possibility
     of using military force, which the administration has largely
     de-emphasized while pursuing its diplomatic outreach.

     \"We are going to keep on pushing.\" Obama declared, \"It is one of our
     highest priorities to make sure that Iran doesn't possess a nuclear
     weapon.\"

     Ambassador to the US Michael Oren, meanwhile, emphasized the need to
     work with the administration on that priority, in an op-ed piece in
     Thursday's New York Times, agreeing with Obama's assessment that
     relations are not in crisis.

     \"American-Israeli cooperation is vital to meeting the direst challenge
     facing both countries and the entire world: denying nuclear weapons to
     Iran,\" he wrote. \"Though we may disagree with the White House at certain
     stages of the peace process, we must never allow such differences to
     obscure the purpose we share or to raise doubts about the unbreakable
     bonds between us.\"

     Oren again denied having said that US-Israel ties were at their lowest
     point in 35 years while giving a confidential briefing to
     consuls-general on Saturday evening, as had been reported in the Hebrew
     media.

     \"Israel and America enjoy a deep and multi-layered friendship, but even
     the closest of allies can sometimes disagree. Such a disagreement began
     last week,\" he wrote. \"While this discord was unfortunate, it was not a
     historic low point in United States-Israel relations.\"

     Biden also put the fracas in perspective when addressing the Radio & TV
     Correspondents' Dinner on Wednesday night, when top US officials are
     known to deliver speeches parodying themselves, current events and their
     political opponents.

     \"Trying to negotiate a lasting peace between Palestinians and Israelis
     is tough - but it was a hell of a nice break from health care,\" he said,
     referring to the administration's efforts to twist enough arms to get
     the bill passed.

     He also said, to laughter and applause, \"I love travel, but it's great
     to be back in a place where a boom in housing construction is actually a
     good thing.\"

No Netanyahu-Obama meeting scheduled

     http://www.jta.org/news/article/2010/03/19/1011226/netanyahu-obama-to-meet-report

     3.19.10

     WASHINGTON (JTA) -- No meeting with President Obama has been scheduled
     for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to the United
     States.

     Obama administration officials rejected a Fox News report Friday that
     the two leaders would meet in the Oval Office on Tuesday; nothing has
     been scheduled yet, the officials told JTA.

     Netanyahu's visit follows two weeks of tension triggered by Israel's
     announcement of a housing construction project in eastern Jerusalem
     during what was supposed to have been a friendly visit by U.S. Vice
     President Joe Biden.

     Officials at the Israeli embassy said they did not know of any planned
     Obama-Netanyahu meeting.

     Netanyahu will be in Washington to address the American Israel Public
     Affairs Committee annual policy conference. Obama was going to be away,
     on a tour of the Far East, but the White House announced Thursday that
     the trip was canceled because Obama is determined to shepherd his health
     care package through Congress. Since then, speculation has abounded
     about whether the two leaders would meet. A snub would be seen as a
     major humiliation for Netanyahu.

     On Thursday, Netanyahu phoned U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham
     Clinton and outlined for her measures he proposed to smooth the waters
     and entice the Palestinian Authority, which had suspended peace
     negotiations because of the announcement, back to talks.

     Neither side revealed the nature of Netanyahu's proposals, but media
     have suggested that Netanyahu might quietly suspend the Jerusalem
     housing project.

     Reginald Thompson

     ADP
     Stratfor
","2010-03-19 23:25:13",1,"2012-03-27 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1138211_re-g3-us-israel-no-pm-obama-meeting-scheduled-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1140035,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT- US/MENA-  Movements.org
","   Good work Sean.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2011 16:17:19 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT- US/MENA- Movements.org
   He is a co-founder and board member.  So he oversees the show, but isn't
   doing day-to-day work. 

   On 3/29/11 4:12 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     So what is Cohen's current ties with them?

     On 3/29/11 4:04 PM, Reginald Thompson wrote:

       SOURCE: n/a
       ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source   
       SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Main organizer at movements.org   
       PUBLICATION: Some is not for publication.  Rest is background   
       SOURCE RELIABILITY:
       ITEM CREDIBILITY:  [in terms of knowing what movements.org is doing,
       they are A-1, but in terms of what the other groups are doing, source
       is not great]
       SPECIAL HANDLING: none
       SOURCE HANDLER: Sean

       My Notes:

       How Movements.org got started:  [This part is not for publication]
       in 2008 it became apparent to the USG that they needed to do public
       diplomacy over the internet.  So Jared Cohen was at DoS then and
       played a major role in starting the organization.  The main goal was
       just spreading the good word about the US.  Similar inititiaves have
       come aobut in 21st Century Diplomacy and Civil Society 2.0, but
       movments.org has since split from the US government.  A key turning
       point in leading to its creates was seeing Oscar Morales organize a
       Global Day of Protest against FARC in 2008.  This is the first time
       social networking was really used to organize a protest.  [This part
       is not for publication]

       Three goals- Taking people wanting social change from the internet to
       constructive activism by:
           1. monopolizing on initial success (this generally means getting
       popular on facebook)
           2. Staying secure
           3. Peer-to-peer training

       Currently choosing \"Unlikely Leaders\" to be invited to the next Global
       Summit.  These are people that for example start a facebook activisit
       group that becomes very popular and then suddenly are completely
       unprepared--much like April 6 in Egypt.  CANVAS will also be invited. 
       Source is familiar with them, but has not been through their
       training. 

       they are part of a network of NGOs ready to negotiate with Facebook
       when activist accounts are deleted or hacked.  Movements.org wants a
       sort of Facebook customer service to be created just to deal with
       activism, since there are positives and negatives to allowing
       anonymous accounts, and those will probably never be allowed anyway. 

       Movements.org is engaging with these groups once they actually get
       popular.  This is the main criteria for their involvement, or inviting
       them to their Summits. 

       Answer to the neutrality issue-- \"we are by no means trying to
       overthrow governments.\" Movements.org goal is to develop civil society
       and social movements.  

       [Not for Pub.  And don't let this get back to RS501, for now]
       \"Serbia is exactly what we don't want to see\"---Otpor needed a
       political leader and was able to create that, but Dindic was assinated
       in 2003 and the momentum of Otpor has not been maintained
       afterwards.   [Not for pub]

       The Internet is helpful in bring people together, but the hard part is
       keeping them together.  The first real examples politically were the
       color revolutions and now MENA.  But the challenge has been keeping
       the momentum going to keep these social movements alive.  They were a
       case study in the power of technology for short-term political change,
       but that's it. 

       Movements.org was communicating with someone at April 6 who said they
       had established different cells across Cairo in case one group was
       arrested.  [not sure if we knew this]

       Egyptians are now presented with two choices--1. to find a political
       leader and take power or, 2. To create a sustainable social movement. 
       Source sees this as a dichotomy. 
       Manuel Castells is the only academic to have really examined the
       internet in terms of social networks. 

       Agrees with S-weekly on Social media.  The impetus for these
       revolutions is there already, social media is just tapping into that. 

       MY THOUGHTS AND IMPRESSIONS
       First, to explain the thing about Serbia- the source is pretty set on
       trying to create these long-term sustainable social movements that are
       effective over various issues, rather than new political parties that
       take power.  The criticism of OTPOR is interesting, and is telling
       about how Movements.org would like to work. 

       I get the idea that this organization is actually farther behind then
       we are--understaffed and inexperienced.  I don't mean this critically,
       because really no one is that experienced in online organization--they
       are breaking new ground.  They have a pretty good understanding of the
       challenges presented by social media--and that is really what they are
       focusing on, but don't really have solutions yet.  Their main response
       to this is to develop this peer-to-peer training done through people
       they designate as ambassadors to work with others in their own country
       or region.  So really what Movements.org is doing right now is
       creating a database of training materials and valuable networks for
       groups to learn from each other--not doing direct training like
       CANVAS. 

       They are also doing everything after things get started--waiting for
       these groups to get big, then trying to work with them.  This means
       they aren't identifying countries or groups to start some shit in. 
       Though, I get the impression they would like to be more active in th
       emore oppresive countries like Cuba and Myanmar.   You can probably
       see how the idealism bleeds through. 

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2011-03-29 23:45:20",1,"2012-03-06 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1140035_re-alpha-insight-us-mena-movements-org-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1141030,"INSIGHT - IRAN/US: Pro-Democracy groups less funding
","   PUBLICATION: background/analysis
   SOURCE: CANVAS leader SR 501
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY :  A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY:  A
   DISTRIBUTION:  Secure
   SOURCE HANDLER: Marko

   From our CANVAS source (he wrote it all in English, not my translation)

   Iran policy is largely made in the NSC under Dennis Ross. There is a
   growing
   Iran function at the State Department under Deputy Assistant Secretary
   John
   Limbert.

   Under previous congresses, appropriations for Iran democracy programs
   increased from
   $1.5 million in Fiscal Year 2004 to $60 million in Fiscal Year 2008.

   For Fiscal Year 2009, the Bush Administration requested $65 million for
   Iran democracy
   programs.
   But with a Democratic White House and Congress, the final FY 2009 omnibus
   appropriations bill came to the House floor with no line item for Iran
   democracy.
   Instead, the majority invented a new account a** the Near East Regional
   Democracy Fund
   a** and gave it only $25 million.

   While no official document exists stating the purpose of this fund
   (appropriately
   nicknamed the NERD), State Department officials claim it will be used for
   Iran democracy programs. But to date, none of the funds have been
   obligated a**
   and Fiscal Year 2009 ended on September 30.

   On October 6, the Boston Globe reported that at least four groups that
   previously
   received funding for Iran democracy programs had been cut off by the Obama
   Administration. Most notable were the Iran Human Rights Documentation
   Center, which
   received word its State Department grant was terminated just as it was
   ramping up
   investigations into the post-election crackdown -- and Freedom House Iran,
   a leader in
   exposing the regimea**s violence via cell phone images, photographs and
   eye
   witness
   testimony.

   USAID & State offered $20m from July 2008 to end June 2009 but spent none
   of
   this.

   After the June 12, 2009, the NSC decided to neutralize the effect of
   existing programs, which had all begun under Bush. Apparently the
   rationale
   was that the US did not want to be seen to interfere in Iranian internal
   politics. The US does not want to give the Iranian regime an excuse to say
   no during the nuclear talks nor provide the EU 3 (UK, France, Germany)
   with
   the opportunity to claim that the US is not serious about engagement.

   As a result, the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center, Freedom House,
   IFES and IRI had substantial funding requests turned down.

   USAID & State gave $3m to ABA to train Iranian lawyers and IRD, an
   organization that mainly does economic development, received $3m to do a
   Persian language website. We know than IFES has received a smal amount of
   continuation funding for existing projects.
","2010-01-05 18:08:33",1,"2012-06-18 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1141030_insight-iran-us-pro-democracy-groups-less-funding-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
1142108,"Re: INSIGHT-BOLIVIA-St. Dept source's take on Morales
","Back in the day, we would have been planning his (and Chavez's)
helicopter \"accident.\"  Guess I'm getting old, I think its best to keep
these lads around for comic relief.  Evo and Chevez belong in the US
Congress and could probably get elected.

Korena Zucha wrote:
> SOURCE CODE: BOL701
> ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR security source
> SOURCE DESCRIPTION: State Dept. source in Bolivia
> PUBLICATION: if desired
> SOURCE RELIABILITY: Still testing
> ITEM CREDIBILITY: Still testing
> DISTRIBUTION: Secure
> SPECIAL HANDLING:  None
> SOURCE HANDLER: Fred
> 
> In response to Evo Morales saying 'Chicken causes baldness and
> homosexuality'--
> 
> Evo says stupid things every day, but the local media here (which is
> under his thumb) protects him in their 'lack of reporting' or twisting
> it for disinformation purposes.  Unfortunately for him, he was
> addressing an international audience so he could not be protected by his
> lackey media drones from the international press.  For the first time,
> the world got to see firsthand what a buffoon this 4th grade educated,
> narco-trafficking, murderous thug is.  He is NOT the messiah and genius
> that everyone touts him to be.  His rhetoric is anti-US and
> anti-Capitalism, so he is the darling to the ultra-left and self-hating
> US citizens (Danny Glover, Sean Penn, Oliver Stone, etc.)  He is
> destroying Bolivia like Chavez is destroying Venezuela.  However, there
> are now chinks in his armor.  His recent hypocrisy was to dispatch his
> Minister of Finance last week to the US to engage those 'evil
> capitalists' there to invest in Bolivia.  And, this was only a few days
> after he lashed out (ala MO of Fidel Castro) on the evils of capitalism
> and how the US was responsible for everything bad in the world.  Over
> the weekend, Evo announced his government is engaging Vietnam and North
> Korea to establish formal diplomatic relations with them, open embassies
> and exchange ambassadors in an attempt to strengthen socialist
> governments to destroy the US and capitalism.  He speaks of Robert
> Mugabe as a 'dear freedom fighter' who is doing great things for
> Zimbabwe.  If George W. Bush made a stupid statement like his
> genetically modified chicken (and drinking Coca Cola, consuming Alka
> Shelzer, both were made in his diatribes but omitted by the media), the
> MSM (CNN, MSBNC, et all) would beat this Bush statement to death.  You
> hear nothing from them when idiots like Chavez and Evo speak.  This
> media bias is the double standard the left-leaning MSM media is guilty
> of.  If they were doing their job, instead of being coconspirators in
> their liberal politics, FoxNews would not be needed to balance out
> objectivity.  Finally, the nomination of Evo for the Nobel Peace Prize
> was just formally accepted yesterday as a result for his \"Mother Earth\"
> Summit [aka, vehement anti-US, anti-Capitalism (specifically targeting
> Coca Cola), anti-UN, pro-coca (sic cocaine) and narco-trafficking
> platform that was embraced by 22,000 anti-US, left-wing anarchists in
> attendance] as a result of the recent Climate Change Summit in Cochabamba.
","2010-04-27 19:06:01",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1142108_re-insight-bolivia-st-dept-source-s-take-on-morales-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","zucha@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
1143273,"RE: ANALYSIS FOR QUICK COMMENT- CAT. 3 - TURKEY: AKP fights back
","   I don't disagree with you but this is all very new and in flux so it would
   be best if we didn't come out strongly that the AKP has contained the
   military. The TSK is not without cards and they are using them. Last week
   we had a brief on how they are again trying to get a case through the
   judiciary to have the ruling party outlawed on charges of supporting
   Kurdish separatism.  

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of George Friedman
   Sent: February-22-10 8:55 AM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: ANALYSIS FOR QUICK COMMENT- CAT. 3 - TURKEY: AKP fights back

    

   We know that there is tension between the government and the military.  It
   seems to me that the government is having no problem controlling the
   military elements. As this incidence shows the government knows what they
   are doing and arrests them when it feels like them.  Why isn't the
   conclusion here about the weakness of the secular forces and the strength
   of the Islamists.  This seems a very one-sided struggle.

   Emre Dogru wrote:

   with Kamran's approval. the sooner published the better. there is nothing
   about this in international media yet.

   A raid has started early in the morning in the houses and offices of the
   retired Turkish generals and some others were arrested Feb. 22. The reason
   of the recent investigation (which is the biggest against the retired and
   serving military officials so far) is the so-called Balyoz (Sledgehammer)
   plan (LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/sitrep/20100121_turkey_coup_plan_was_part_military_exercise_program)
   that reportedly outlined the plan of the Turkish army in 2003 to intervene
   should anti-secular movements get out of hand. Former 1st Army General
   Cetin Dogan, deputy commander of Turkish Armed Forces Ergin Saygun, navy
   general Ozden Ornek and air forces general Ibrahim Firtina are among those
   who are accused of being involved in army's plots to topple the ruling
   Justice and Development Party (AKP).

   Sledgehammer Plan was revealed in last January. The plan allegedly
   contains actions that the Turkish army was supposed to take in 2003, such
   as bombing a mosque in Istanbul and shutting down a Turkish jet plane over
   the Aegean Sea to blame Greece, in order to create necessary conditions to
   call state of emergency and repeal the government to take over the
   authority. Top commander of the Turkish Army Ilker Basbug, however,
   fiercely condemned those allegations. Former commander of the 1st Army
   Cetin Dogan, who is the main responsible of the plan, defended the
   Sledgehammer Plan as a war exercise and a usual contingency plan.

   There is already an ongoing probe since 2007 against the former soldiers,
   journalists and academicians who are accused of creating an organization
   called Ergenekon to topple the AKP government. Since it's beginning, AKP
   used Ergenekon probe to crack down on military and civilian forces that
   may pose challenge to AKP. Whether the recent Sledgehammer plan will be
   merged with the Ergenekon case remains to be seen. But the fact that some
   of the arrested generals are being sent to Istanbul to be questioned by
   Ergenekon prosecutors supports this possibility.

   The raid comes at a time when the struggle between the Islamist-rooted
   Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Turkey's strictly secular civilian
   and military bureaucracy intensified within the judiciary.(LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/node/154795). AKP government came under pressure
   with the recent spat within the judiciary over the allegations of
   interfering to the independence of judges and prosecutors. However, with
   the investigation and arrest of retired generals over the Sledgehammer
   Plan, AKP shows its ability to stave off such accusations and contain
   army's traditional influence in Turkish politics.

 --

 Emre Dogru

  

 STRATFOR

 +1.512.279.9468

 emre.dogru@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

    

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

    

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334
","2010-02-22 15:01:03",1,"2012-03-14 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1143273_re-analysis-for-quick-comment-cat-3-turkey-akp-fights-back-.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1143509,"Re: Classic Drew.... (hilarious)...
","   Drew intends to have the cast broken & recast every other week. He already
   thought of that. Rediculous man. 

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Feb 22, 2010, at 4:02 PM, Ben West <ben.west@stratfor.com> wrote:

     You can't maintain dignity and grace with the amount of foot cheese he's
     going to have after wearing that thing for 9 weeks.

     Kevin Stech wrote:

       when i broke my arm in high school i rocked a ninja turtles cast for 2
       months.  hows that for dignity and grace.

       On 02-22 15:48, Nate Hughes wrote:

         nah, I rent my suits. And I had not the dignity and grace of Kenton
         Park to maintain.

         On 2/22/2010 4:45 PM, Kristen Cooper wrote:

           is that what you did, nate?
           ----- Original Message -----
           From: \"Nate Hughes\" <hughes@stratfor.com>
           To: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
           Cc: \"Lauren Goodrich\" <goodrich@stratfor.com>, \"Matt Gertken\"
           <matt.gertken@stratfor.com>, \"Robert Reinfrank\"
           <robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com>, \"Eugene Chausovsky\"
           <eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com>, \"Ben West\"
           <ben.west@stratfor.com>, \"Benjamin Sledge\"
           <ben.sledge@stratfor.com>, \"Alex Posey\" <alex.posey@stratfor.com>,
           \"Bayless Parsley\" <bayless.parsley@stratfor.com>, \"Michael Wilson\"
           <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>, \"Kevin Stech\"
           <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>, \"Kristen Cooper\"
           <kristen.cooper@stratfor.com>, \"Reva Bhalla\"
           <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>, \"Karen Hooper\" <hooper@stratfor.com>,
           \"nate hughes\" <nathan.hughes@stratfor.com>
           Sent: Monday, February 22, 2010 3:05:52 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
           Central
           Subject: Re: Classic Drew.... (hilarious)...

           I suggest finding a few suits he can part with and slicing up the
           leg. That way the dignity and grace of Kenton Park may be
           maintained and there is extra cause to be fitted for new suits in
           9 weeks.

           On 2/22/2010 4:03 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

             The flag in front of Casa Papic will fly at half mast in honor
             of Rt. Hon Andrew Anderson , Lord of Kenton Park.

             Lauren Goodrich wrote:

                
               So Andrew broke his foot today playing football with his
               mates. What would you guess he is most upset about? The pain?
               Being crippled? Nooooooooooa*|a*| not being able to wear his
               suits for the next 9 weeksa*| it is classic Drew (text below):
                
                
               I am in a cast for the next 9 weeks. That means 9 weeks of
               \"Suiting Down\". Today is a somber, somber, very somber day.
               People try to prepare you for days like this, but the reality
               is that no one can prepare you. Not even experiencing it once
               before can prepare you. It is traumatic each and every time it
               happens. The memorial is yet to be scheduled. If there is any
               silver lining in today's black hole of events, it is that the
               obligatory \"Suit Re-birth\", just over two months from now,
               will be remarkable enough to be famous. Till then I am living
               in a world of disarray.
                
                

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890
","2010-02-22 23:13:43",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1143509_re-classic-drew-hilarious-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","hughes@stratfor.com,reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,hooper@stratfor.com,nathan.hughes@stratfor.com,ben.sledge@stratfor.com,marko.papic@stratfor.com,matt.gertken@stratfor.com,kristen.cooper@stratfor.com,kevin.stech@stratfor.com,bayless.parsley@stratfor.com,ben.west@stratfor.com,michael.wilson@stratfor.com,alex.posey@stratfor.com,eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com,robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com",""
1144263,"Re: [latam] tasking - CHINA/ARGENTINA/ECON - China concerned about
 Argentina's protectionist trend: official
","   paulo sergio gregoire wrote:

     There is a lot of good and cheap land available in the states of Piaui,
     Tocantins, Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso. These states have
     attracted many farmers from southern Brazil in the last years. The
     governor of Mato Grosso is the one of the biggest soybeans producers in
     the world and he is also from the south. It is a growing business in
     Brazil.
     Argentina has had trade disputes with everyone, including Brazil. Last
     year, they wanted to impose a quota on electronics coming from Brazil
     because they want to develop their own industry in southern Argentina.
     This current Argentine administration hasn't paid much attention to the
     agricultural business, which has caused a lot of discontentment in the
     agricultural sector.

     Karen Hooper wrote:

       Does Brazil have the excess capacity to completely replace Argentina's
       exports to China? This would be pretty devastating to the argentine
       agricultural sector (which, i might add is at extreme odds with the
       government, and their policies are not at all in lockstep). On the
       other hand, China is a HUGE market, and there are only a handful of
       places in the world that produce soybeans. If Brazil radically ramped
       up production, are there other markets that would absorb Argentine
       soy? Seems plausible, every time i turn around they're making
       something new out of soy....

       On 4/22/10 9:47 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

         depends on what the Chinese do. If they significantly cut Argentine
         soy imports, where is Argentina going to find that big of a
         replacement market?
         On Apr 22, 2010, at 8:45 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

           so there've been brewing trade frictions for some time then

           not exactly a shocker i guess -- arg has been seeing its trade
           position wither everywhere, with only brazil maintaining and only
           china expanding their interactions, makes sense that china would
           therefore be the point of most friction

           see any breakpoints coming?

           Reva Bhalla wrote:

             here is the timeline:
             last year, when the global econ crisis was hitting hard,
             Argentina passed two anti-dumping measures against China to try
             and mitigate their widening trade deficit with China. 
             Then, on April 1, China said Argentina oil contains unacceptably
             high traces of solvents.  Argentina said that's BS.  Then less
             than a couple weeks later, China transferred the right to issue
             permits for soy imports to the Ministry of Commerce. By giving
             this authority to central authorities, the Chinese govt is able
             to place tighter restrictions on these imports.
             Argentina supplied China with 77% of their soy last year.
              Brazil and the US would be pretty eager to make up the
             difference, though China seems to also be using this to boost
             its domestic soy industry.  China hasn't stopped importing soy
             from Argentina amid this trade dispute, but reports indicate
             that the imports have slowed. 
             On Apr 22, 2010, at 8:05 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

               think i'm getting lost

               so china complained that arg soy is contaminated, so arg
               responded to the complaint by launching a couple anti-dumping
               investigations which china feels are protectionist?

               Reva Bhalla wrote:

                 and Brazil stands to gain from this. They've already said
                 that they'll replace the Argentine soy to China with their
                 own
                 On Apr 22, 2010, at 7:50 AM, Matt Gertken wrote:

                   It's about the soy issue. The Chinese have threatened
                   countermeasures on Argentine soybeans saying the hexane
                   levels are too high (they officially raised the issue in
                   late March). They are responding to Argentina's initiation
                   of two anti-dumping investigations against Chinese
                   imports. 

                   Not sure about your point on protectionism -- the Chinese
                   have been using this term, and accusing everyone of doing
                   it, since at least the Sept G20 meeting if not before.
                   This is their mantra right now -- everyone is
                   protectionist except China. 

                   Peter Zeihan wrote:

                     no idea -- let's find out

                     Jennifer Richmond wrote:

                       Does this have anything to do with the ongoing soy
                       issue?  I think it is stemming from this and is a
                       one-off issue and not indicative of a growing trend.

                       Peter Zeihan wrote:

                         let's find out what -- its not so much that Arg is a
                         canary in the coal mine for anything, but there's
                         three things that come to mine

                         1) china in the past has offered credit outside of
                         intl norms to Arg -- has that happened? is it in
                         danger?
                         2) Arg has massively de-industrialized in recent
                         years -- this suggests that there may be a
                         (successful?) effort to reverse that trend -- if
                         there is we need to understand it
                         3) China is playing with fire whenever it uses the
                         word 'protectionist' -- i doubt they used it lightly

                         bottom line: could be several interesting things
                         going on here

                         Chris Farnham wrote:

                           China concerned about Argentina's protectionist    
                           trend: official                                    

                     English.news.cn                                             
                     2010-04-22        [IMG]Feedback[IMG]Print[IMG]RSS[IMG][IMG]
                     13:36:38          

                           http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/indepth/2010-04/22/c_13262679.htm

                           BUENOS AIRES, April 21 (Xinhua) -- China is
                           concerned about Argentina's growing tendency to
                           impose protectionist measures on Chinese products,
                           which has already hurt bilateral ties, a Chinese
                           trade official said.

                           Visiting Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Jiang
                           Yaoping made the comments in an interview with
                           Xinhua Tuesday here in Buenos Aires before leaving
                           the South American nation after a 48-hour visit.

                           -- 

                           Chris Farnham
                           Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent , STRATFOR
                           China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
                           Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
                           www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com



  

       --
       Karen Hooper
       Director of Operations
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
","2010-04-22 16:27:18",1,"2012-03-05 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1144263_re-latam-tasking-china-argentina-econ-china-concerned-about.html","paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com","mailto:latam@stratfor.com","latam@stratfor.com",""
1146247,"Comrade J (KGB Defector) 
","More to follow --

From Comrade J, the highest ranking Soviet defector to the U.S.


Did the KGB try to identify \"Ramon Garcia\" who repeatedly
stated that he would not identify himself to his employer in his letters
to the KGB and the GRU?

I was not involved in Hanssen's case. But as far as I remember, the work
with Hanssen was very well supervised. In this particular case there
were no specific efforts made to find out who and what Hanssen was. In
the Soviet/Russian intelligence there is an understanding (Hanssen's
case): DO NOT DIG AT ALL. They were professionals, there was no need to
identify him while he keeps providing exceptionally sensitive information.
","2010-04-02 22:10:36",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1146247_comrade-j-kgb-defector-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","sean.noonan@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
1146487,"Re: OBL take -- quick response needed
","   ISI should know by now since they have the homeowner.  There is much more
   to the story on The Courier which ISI doesn't know. 

   On 5/13/2011 6:18 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     You know this reminds me of a discussion I had on NPR's Diane Rehm Show
     back in July '07. I was on with Peter Brookes (former deputy assistant
     secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific affairs in the second Bush
     administration) and the State Dept's current CT Coordinator, Daniel
     Benjamin. These two guys kept saying how ObL was in the tribal belt
     while I argued that he was much deeper in K-P province. God knows how
     many years were wasted chasing the sob in the tribal belt.

     On 5/13/2011 7:04 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

       The investigative key would be two prong to uncover the links to Paki
       ISI and Mil:

       1) The Homeowner

       2) The Courier

       Both are known quantities.

       On 5/13/2011 5:56 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

         Could be anyone of Lt. Col or below rank. Then again it could be a
         retired military officer still serving as a civie in the
         directorate. Or a consultant/contractor who work in the field. Or
         even a civilian official (60 percent are civilians in the ISI).
         Since most army officers including the chief are deputed to the ISI
         for a max of 3 years, we are really talking about people who are
         career intel officers. Then there is a large cadre of retired army
         personnel outside the security establishment. Good luck sifting
         through the jungle.

         On 5/13/2011 5:29 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

           Not further specified.  But, it may help explain why the ISI chief
           has offered to resign, which is the noble way out.  He can be the
           fall guy for domestic consumption.   It would be best if he
           defected. 

           On 5/13/2011 4:23 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

             What does source mean by mid to senior level. As for retired, I
             can think of a number of them. So, that is not really
             surprising. 

             On 5/13/2011 2:27 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

               Same response as before:

               Mid to senior level ISI and Pak Mil with one retired Pak Mil
               General that had knowledge of the OBL arrangements and safe
               house.

               Names unk to me and not provided.

               Specific ranks unk to me and not provided.

               But, I get a very clear sense we (US intel) know names and
               ranks.

               I also do not know if we have passed this info to the GOP.

               If I was in command, I would not pass the info to the GOP,
               because we can't trust them. I would piece meal the names off
               and bury in a list of other non-related names for internal ISI
               traces in a non-alerting fashion, to see what the Pakis tell
               us.

               I may also trade one or two names for the captured tail
               rudder.

               Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

               From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
               Date: Fri, 13 May 2011 12:22:31 -0500 (CDT)
               To: Kamran Bokhari<bokhari@stratfor.com>
               Cc: Sean Noonan<sean.noonan@stratfor.com>; Secure
               List<secure@stratfor.com>
               Subject: Re: OBL take -- quick response needed
               I may be able to get that, let me ask. 

               On 5/13/2011 12:21 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

                 No surprises here. We will never find out their departments
                 but their ranks would be very telling.

                 On 5/13/2011 11:19 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                   awesome.  Please see what you can find out about what kind
                   of department they are in, or area they cover. 

                   On 5/13/11 9:58 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

 More on # 3 --

 Several w/in ISI and Pak Mil, less than 12.

 More on this later.


 On 5/12/2011 3:26 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

 1 specific operational plans

 2 communications with franchise groups (like AQAP)

 3 connections to anyone associated with the Pakistani state


 ------Original Message------
 From: Fred Burton
 To: Secure List
 Subject: OBL take -- quick response needed
 Sent: May 12, 2011 15:25

 I can get access to the materials seized from the OBL safe house.

 What are the top (not 45) questions we want addressed?


                   --

                   Sean Noonan

                   Tactical Analyst

                   Office: +1 512-279-9479

                   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                   www.stratfor.com

                 --

             --

         --

     --
","2011-05-14 01:47:27",1,"2012-02-27 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1146487_re-obl-take-quick-response-needed-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","bokhari@stratfor.com,sean.noonan@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com","attach/6/6434_Signature.JPG"
1146565,"RE: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview
","   Our friend responds as follows:

    

   I believe he is seeking to do several things:

   1. He wants to distance himself from the ihh, another aid organization
   with Islamic roots.
   2. He wants to protect his community from any possible attack because of
   its aid/educational work.
   3. He is saying he would have done things differently.
   4. He may be heeding the U.S. sensitivities regarding Israel.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of George Friedman
   Sent: June-04-10 3:10 PM
   To: Reva Bhalla; Analysts
   Subject: Re: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   It just split a bit more open wouldn't you say.

   Write a factual cat 2 and let's pull together what we can. Kamran has the
   main channel for understanding this.

   This was not something I was led to see as an issue.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>

   Date: Fri, 4 Jun 2010 14:06:26 -0500

   To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>; Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>

   Subject: Re: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   by whom?  Ibrahim?

    

   Zaman is the main Gulenist institution

    

   there have always been tensions between the AKP and Gulen. That split is
   already open

    

   On Jun 4, 2010, at 2:05 PM, George Friedman wrote:

   Let's keep the cat 2 factual and not draw conclusions yet. Let's see what
   kamran gets. We need to gage how this will impact the turkish government.

   I know that I was steered away from zaman to sabah by him. I think there
   may be a split opening.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>

   Date: Fri, 4 Jun 2010 14:02:21 -0500 (CDT)

   To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>

   Subject: Re: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   im on it

    

    

   On Jun 4, 2010, at 2:01 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

   Sounds like a way for AKP to move to a safe distance as well. Let us a do
   a CAT 2 on this.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
   Sent: June-04-10 2:57 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   NOte that he's very noticeably distancing his movment from the IHH

    

    

   On Jun 4, 2010, at 1:51 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

   This should be repped.  

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On
   Behalf Of Bayless Parsley
   Sent: June-04-10 2:50 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   Reclusive Turkish Imam Criticizes Gaza Flotilla
   http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704025304575284721280274694.html#printMode

   6/4/10

   By JOE LAURIA

   SAYLORSBURG, Pa.-Imam Fethullah Gu:len, a controversial and reclusive U.S.
   resident who is considered Turkey's most influential religious leader,
   criticized a Turkish-led flotilla for trying to deliver aid without
   Israel's consent.

   Speaking in his first interview with a U.S. news organization, Mr. Gu:len
   spoke of watching news coverage of Monday's deadly confrontation between
   Israeli commandos and Turkish aid group members as its flotilla approached
   Israel's sea blockade of Gaza. \"What I saw was not pretty,\" he said. \"It
   was ugly.\"

   Mr. Gu:len said organizers' failure to seek accord with Israel before
   attempting to deliver aid \"is a sign of defying authority, and will not
   lead to fruitful matters.\"

   Mr. Gu:len's views and influence within Turkey are under growing scrutiny
   now, as factions within the country battle to remold a democracy that is a
   key U.S. ally in the Middle East. The struggle, as many observers
   characterize it, pits the country's old-guard secularist and military
   establishment against Islamist-leaning government workers and ruling
   politicians who say they seek a more democratic and religiously tolerant
   Turkey. Mr. Gu:len inspires a swath of the latter camp, though the extent
   of his reach remains hotly disputed.

   His words of restraint come as many in Turkey gave flotilla members a
   hero's welcome after two days of detention in Israel. Prime Minister Recep
   Tayyip Erdogan of the ruling Justice and Development Party condemned
   Israel's moves as \"bullying\" and a \"historic mistake.\"

   Mr. Gu:len said he had only recently heard of IHH, the Istanbul-based
   Islamic charity active in more than 100 countries that was a lead flotilla
   organizer. \"It is not easy to say if they are politicized or not,\" he
   said. He said that when a charity organization linked with his movement
   wanted to help Gazans, he insisted they get Israel's permission. He added
   that assigning blame in the matter is best left to the United Nations.

   Mr. Gu:len has long cut a baffling figure, as critics and adherents have
   sparred over the nature of his influence in Turkey and the extent of his
   reach. Leading a visitor on Wednesday past his front corridor-adorned with
   a map of Turkey, a verse from the Quran and a photograph of a Turkish F-16
   jet over the Bosphorus-he portrayed himself an apolitical teacher. \"I do
   not consider myself someone who has followers,\" he said.
   More

       * Opinion: Turkey's Radical Drift
       * New Aid Ship Heads to Gaza
       * Israel Explores Easing Its Blockade of Gaza
       * Turkish Group Sees Victory in Martyrdom
       * Israel's Isolation Deepens
       * In Israel and Abroad, Raid Spurs Criticism of Military's Judgment
       * Aboard Marmara, Skirmish Turns Deadly
       * Complete Coverage: WSJ.com/Mideast 

   Born in eastern Turkey in 1941, Mr. Gu:len became a state-licensed imam at
   17, after three years of formal education and studies with Sufi masters.
   In a Turkey largely under the sway of a military-secularist establishment,
   he built a national organization of Islamic study and boarding halls,
   gaining support of many wealthy Muslims but at times running afoul of the
   law.

   While in the U.S. in 1999 for medical treatment, he was charged in Turkey
   with attempting to create an Islamic state- anathema under Turkey's
   secularist constitution. He stayed in Pennsylvania, where he now lives on
   a 25-acre estate in the Pocono Mountains. Over the years, he said, he has
   left the estate twice.

   Mr. Gu:len preaches nonviolence, dialogue between Western and Muslim
   worlds, and an educational tradition that combines study of science and
   Islam. His newspaper columns, weekly Internet sermons and other messages
   have been collected into more than 60 books. His adherents number, by
   various estimates, three million to eight million.

   Followers have established hundreds of schools in more than 100 countries
   and run an insurance company and an Islamic bank, Asya, that its 2008
   annual report said had $5.2 billion in assets. They own Turkey's largest
   daily newspaper, Zaman; the magazine Aktion; a wire service; publishing
   companies; a radio station and the television network STV, according to
   Helen Rose Ebaugh, a University of Houston sociologist and author of \"The
   Gu:len Movement.\" She says followers donate up to one-third of their
   income to independent Gu:len-linked foundations.

   Ms. Ebaugh said Mr. Gu:len doesn't sit on the boards of Asha bank nor any
   foundation or editorial boards of Gu:len-sympathetic magazines, newspapers
   or television stations. In the interview, the imam said he had no
   financial interest in any holdings.

   Mr. Gu:len's detractors see him as a cult-like leader whose empire aims to
   train an Islamic elite who will one day rebuild the Turkish state. Soner
   Cagaptay, a Gu:len critic who is a Turkey analyst at the Washington
   Institute for Near East Policy, says the Turkish police force may be
   largely influenced by the imam through Gu:len sympathizers in key
   positions-effectively creating a counterbalance to Turkey's powerful
   military, a secularist bastion.

   \"I am not a leader of a faction or someone who would cause some state
   officials to follow me despite their official duties,\" Mr. Gu:len said in
   the interview.

   The U.S. has \"immense ambivalence\" about Mr. Gu:len, said Graham Fuller,
   an ex-Central Intelligence Agency officer who is a resident consultant at
   the Rand Corp. in British Columbia.

   \"On the one hand they do perceive him as very moderate and doing many
   positive things,\" Mr. Fuller said. But Washington has long thrown its lot
   behind the secularist followers of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, he says, viewing
   them \"as the only narrative to what Turkish politics is all about.\"

   The U.S. State Department declined to comment about Mr. Gu:len for this
   article.

   In 2007, U.S. Homeland Security moved to deny Mr. Gu:len
   permanent-resident status in the U.S., rejecting his claim of exceptional
   ability as an educator. \"The record contains overwhelming evidence that
   plaintiff is primarily the leader of a large and influential religious and
   political movement with immense commercial holdings,\" the government
   wrote.

   Mr. Gu:len won on appeal after getting 29 letters of support, including
   one from Mr. Fuller.

   The imam disputed Homeland Security's characterization. He goes only so
   far as to provide guidance to those who ask, he said.

   The 2002 election of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, opened a
   new era for Mr. Gu:len and those he inspires, given their common foe in
   the military-secularist establishment.

   The AKP says it has no political ties to Mr. Gu:len. The imam says critics
   have linked him, falsely, to Turkey's current and previous leaders. \"I do
   not have and have never had any relationship with a movement that has
   political aspirations,\" he said. \"I am just a Turkish citizen.\"

   Last month, Mr. Gu:len's followers founded the Assembly of Turkic American
   Federations in Washington, a lobbying and umbrella organization for some
   180 local non-profit foundations around the U.S. involved in education and
   culture.

   An English-language Turkish newspaper reported that Mr. Gu:len has told
   his followers they couldn't visit him on his Poconos estate if they didn't
   first donate to their local congressman. Mr. Gulen denies making the
   remark.

   Mr. Gu:len said that for Muslims, benefiting their community is both an
   Islamic and humanitarian duty, and that he would be happy if those who
   respect him support their lawmakers in the name of democracy and
   humanitarianism.

   \"I hear that some people in the United States consider Turkey as sitting
   at the epicenter of radicalism,\" Mr. Gu:len said. The new federation's
   lobbying would aim \"to reflect through sincere, pro-dialog and open-minded
   people the true nature of Turkey's realities.\"

   Write to Joe Lauria at newseditor@wsj.com

    

    

    
","2010-06-04 22:44:23",1,"2012-03-12 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1146565_re-turkey-israel-gulen-criticizes-flotilla-in-wsj-interview-.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","gfriedman@stratfor.com,analysts@stratfor.com",""
1147093,"Re: INSIGHT: PKK and alledged Israel role
","   Fascinating stuff, Yerevan. Good work. Makes a lot of sense from the PKK
   point of view to play up the Israeli links. Will definitely be using this
   insight for our analysis

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Jun 5, 2010, at 3:56 PM, Yerevan Saeed <yerevan.saeed@stratfor.com>
   wrote:

     hello, I sent out this Insight earlier to WO, but did not get posted,
     probably cz its weekend. I am sending it for you so that it can be used
     if found useful.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Yerevan Saeed\" <yerevan.saeed@stratfor.com>
     To: \"watchofficer\" <watchofficer@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Saturday, June 5, 2010 10:58:17 AM
     Subject: INSIGHT: PKK and alledged Israel role

      

     Source: PKK close associate and advisor

     Source credibility: Really new

     Distribution: Mesa, Analysts

     Source handler: Yerevan

     Last night, I met a close PKK associate who is from Iraq, but works for
     the PKK as advisor. we had a chat about the current situaion in Turkey
     and the Flotilla in Gaza.  He said some interesting staff about PKK and
     Israel role in the recent demonstrations in Southeast Turkey.

      

     He told me that Israel is doing everything possible to make noises in
     Turkey via Kurdish channels to bring up Kurdish issue to the eyes of the
     international community in the hope of reducing the public relation cam
     paign agianst it by Turkey. He said that the Kurds are Israel's only
     option at the moment to put pressure on Turkey.

      

      

      

     The source said, there will be  more dmonstrations and protests in
     Turkey at the present time.

      

     Regarding the PKK break of its ceasefire, he said that PKK delibrately
     chose this time, in fact they did not want to break the ceasefire at
     least officially, but the Flotilla and the nature of Israel and Turkey
     relations made PKK to break the ceasefire to plant the seed in the minds
     of the Turks that there is a real relation between PKK and Israel.

      

     The source said that worsening Israel/Turkey relations will help PKK
     very much, since Turkey has used Israeli intelligence to target PKK and
     has been provided with hich tech by Israel.

      

     the source said that PKK is very carefully handling with the situation
     in Turkey and there will be more attacks and demonstrations for two
     things.

      

     1- to try to undermine Turkey/Israel relations as much as possible.

     2- PKK thinks that this is the best time to make the Kurdish issue to be
     heard in the outside world, especailly after Erdogan said tat Hamas is
     not a terrorist organization.

      

     the source said that the leadership of the PKK is very happy about the
     statements made by the Turkish officials about Hamas.

      

     I asked him if there is a real relations between PKK and Israel. he said
     he does not know, but PKK is happy about the current situation happening
     between Israel and the PKK.
     --
     Yerevan Saeed
     STRATFOR
     Phone: 009647701574587
     IRAQ

     --
     Yerevan Saeed
     STRATFOR
     Phone: 009647701574587
     IRAQ
","2010-06-05 23:13:26",1,"2012-03-14 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1147093_re-insight-pkk-and-alledged-israel-role-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,yerevan.saeed@stratfor.com",""
1147293,"Re: wall st firms in deep shit
","Real interest rates are negative (i.e. below inflation), and the Fed and
Treasury are every day loosening their definition of what's possible. 
These factors are very inflationary, although not in an immediate
sense.  In the immediate present, investors are fleeing stocks for the
perceived safety of bonds.  As another wave or two of price inflation
hits, that perception of safety will erode drastically.  Investors will
demand higher interest rates to compensate.  Rapid issuance of Treasury
bonds to cover ballooning obligations (plus bailouts) will also drive
interest rates up.  Bonds of all stripes should suffer heavily in the
next couple years.  Look to short Treasuries and Eurodollar CD's over
the coming months, especially if the Fed cuts its target rate further. 
There are also easy to use ETF's that will track the inverse movement of
key interest rates.  You just buy shares and sit on em.

Not sure if this screws anybody else, but it will personally make you money.

Fred Burton wrote:
> How do I personally make money and screw everybody else is what every
> rational Stratfor subscriber is thinking today (like me.)   
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
> On Behalf Of Kevin Stech
> Sent: Sunday, September 14, 2008 7:47 PM
> To: Analyst List
> Subject: wall st firms in deep shit
>
> Lehman and Merrill are both set to declare bankruptcy unless they are bought
> or bailed.  Lehman especially looks doomed. AIG is planning a major asset
> sale to remain solvent.  Should be an interesting day in the markets
> tomorrow.
>
> --
> Kevin R. Stech
> Monitor/Researcher
> STRATFOR
> Ph: 512.744.4086
> Em: kevin.stech@stratfor.com
>
> _______________________________________________
> Analysts mailing list
>
> LIST ADDRESS:
> analysts@stratfor.com
> LIST INFO:
> https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
> LIST ARCHIVE:
> https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts
>
> _______________________________________________
> Analysts mailing list
>
> LIST ADDRESS:
> analysts@stratfor.com
> LIST INFO:
> https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
> LIST ARCHIVE:
> https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts
>   

-- 
Kevin R. Stech
Monitor/Researcher
STRATFOR
Ph: 512.744.4086
Em: kevin.stech@stratfor.com

_______________________________________________
Analysts mailing list

LIST ADDRESS:
analysts@stratfor.com
LIST INFO:
https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
LIST ARCHIVE:
https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts
","2008-09-15 14:56:21",1,"2011-03-15 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1147293_re-wall-st-firms-in-deep-shit-.html","kevin.stech@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1147341,"Re: wall st firms in deep shit
","Source is unnamed official who was present at today's meetings at the
Manhattan Fed bldg.

Partial list of mtg participants:
 Paulson, Timothy Geithner, president of the New York Fed, Securities
and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox, and a host of CEOs,
including Vikram Pandit of Citigroup Inc., Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase
& Co., John Mack of Morgan Stanley, Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs
Group Inc., and Merrill Lynch & Co.'s John Thain.

Govt officials tried to broker a Lehman buyout, but would not backstop
the deal as with Bear. Nobody would bite.

The source said the Fed and Treasury pushed B. of A. to buy Merrill.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hCKSS1sJl3_Z9F0al2ztN1YxGO-gD936ORQG3
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/apwire/61b43e203125201d23e6cf65050fbc25.htm

George Friedman wrote:
> Source on Merrill? 
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
> On Behalf Of Kevin Stech
> Sent: Sunday, September 14, 2008 7:47 PM
> To: Analyst List
> Subject: wall st firms in deep shit
>
> Lehman and Merrill are both set to declare bankruptcy unless they are bought
> or bailed.  Lehman especially looks doomed. AIG is planning a major asset
> sale to remain solvent.  Should be an interesting day in the markets
> tomorrow.
>
> --
> Kevin R. Stech
> Monitor/Researcher
> STRATFOR
> Ph: 512.744.4086
> Em: kevin.stech@stratfor.com
>
> _______________________________________________
> Analysts mailing list
>
> LIST ADDRESS:
> analysts@stratfor.com
> LIST INFO:
> https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
> LIST ARCHIVE:
> https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts
>
> _______________________________________________
> Analysts mailing list
>
> LIST ADDRESS:
> analysts@stratfor.com
> LIST INFO:
> https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
> LIST ARCHIVE:
> https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts
>   

-- 
Kevin R. Stech
Monitor/Researcher
STRATFOR
Ph: 512.744.4086
Em: kevin.stech@stratfor.com

_______________________________________________
Analysts mailing list

LIST ADDRESS:
analysts@stratfor.com
LIST INFO:
https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
LIST ARCHIVE:
https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts
","2008-09-15 04:01:17",1,"2011-03-15 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1147341_re-wall-st-firms-in-deep-shit-.html","kevin.stech@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1148174,"MORE (reply from CN65) Re: INSIGHT - CHINA/MINING - new source(s)
","   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator.  Source is 
   well-connected politically, militarily and economically.  He has become a
   private businessman helping foreign companies with M&As
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   I think that small companies cannot compete in terms of technology or
   capital.  Of that there is no doubt.  But where foreign companies do get
   access to tenements, they always seem to lose out because the mining
   sector in China is one of the most corrupt sectors of all.
   In witness of the latter point consider a recent case that came to light
   in China about May 25-26 in the China Daily.  It involved a suit brought
   by a local magistrate against a mining company owner in Southern China for
   profits he claims should have been distributed out of the mine.  The
   magistrate was a shareholder.
   The company owner disputed the claim on the basis that the magistrate had
   somehow forfeited or abandoned his shares in the company (there seems to
   have been some capital reconstruction at some stage in the past).  The
   main reason for this argument was that in 2005 (?) the government had
   prohibited government officials, and especially magistrates, from being
   shareholders in mining companies because of the endemic corruption this
   engendered.
   The magistrate won his case. The company owner was seeking an appeal.
    Informed commentary said that the magistrate was entitled to win in
   contract law, but the local court in the area had failed to consider the
   fact he should not have had any shareholding at all.
   This is the supervening corruption which makes issues of government policy
   of marginal importance.
   Ironically, this corruption is one of the impediments to Chinese interests
   not having accumulated even greater stakes in the resources sector in
   Australia.  They simply cannot get it in their heads that the rule of law
   applies to mining projects in Australia.  They refuse to believe that they
   have a right to receive a mining lease subject only to complying with
   relevant environmental permitting conditions.  They think you have no
   credibility unless you tell them they need to bribe someone!!!

   Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

     Source code: New acquaintance 
     Publication: If so desired but more useful as back ground info
     Source description: Source has worked for a number of Chinese mining
     groups and works in close contact with the Ministry of Land and
     Resources
     Attribution: Mining source in China
     Source reliability: B/C (source is new to me)
     Item credibility: 1-2 (pretty commonly held knowledge)
     Distribution: analysts
     Source handler: Chris

     Chit chat from a BBQ last night. 
     Source tells me: 
     - of a foreign company that had paid for prospecting rights near Dalian
     and when they finally found gold the government told them that they
     couldn't dig it up for environmental reasons. Now of course the Chinese
     are getting ready to dig it up. 
     Another group (who I know the GM of as well) who had gone through 7
     years of prep, building local infrastructure, getting screwed by local
     forms and extorted by the local security orgs was finally ready to begin
     extraction when the Chinese gave them some BS reason and kicked them out
     of the project. The Chinese are now of course removing that gold from
     the ground themselves. 
     Local mining interests have pressured the government to block foreign
     mining investment because the locals cannot compete with foreign
     technology. 
     Another chap at the BBQ, a foreigner who seems to be pretty with it here
     and runs a pretty profitable marketing/PR firm tells me that he has been
     in the \"war room\" of CIC and says that it was breathe taking. He says
     that divided up in to industries are all the companies that export to
     China and there are internal departments that collect share holder info
     for each company and who's task it is to buy up ownership of said
     exporters to China. 
     Will be chatting to these guys more down the track. 

     --

     Chris Farnham
     Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent , STRATFOR
     China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
     Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

     --

     Chris Farnham
     Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent , STRATFOR
     China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
     Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-06-07 17:42:55",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1148174_more-reply-from-cn65-re-insight-china-mining-new-source-s-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1149294,"Confed Fuckhouse
"," --
 Matthew Powers
 STRATFOR Senior Researcher
 Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
","2011-04-04 23:14:10",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1149294_confed-fuckhouse-.html","matthew.powers@stratfor.com","","kevin.stech@stratfor.com","attach/102/102203_stratfor - confederation program.xlsx"
1151645,"Re: wall st firms in deep shit
","   Its a us government guarantee. Fdic will be covered and insurance rates
   hiked down the road.

   What are the asian markets doing?

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kevin Stech <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>
   Date: Sun, 14 Sep 2008 21:19:14 -0500
   To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>; Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: wall st firms in deep shit

   From NYT:

   \"Administration officials acknowledged this week that more bank failures
   are inevitable, and the main protection for depositors - the Federal
   Deposit Insurance Corporation - is likely to exhaust the reserves it has
   built over the years from bank insurance premiums.\"

   This has been my concern for a while.  Before the credit crunch began 1
   year ago, FDIC held approximately one penny of reserves for every dollar
   of deposits it guaranteed.  At some point FDIC will have to be rescued as
   well.

   friedman@att.blackberry.net wrote:

 Markets already discounted lehmann. Merrill will be stunning. The end of the quarter is nigh. Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T  -----Original Message----- From: Kevin Stech <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>  Date: Sun, 14 Sep 2008 21:01:17 To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com> Subject: Re: wall st firms in deep shit   Source is unnamed official who was present at today's meetings at the Manhattan Fed bldg.  Partial list of mtg participants:  Paulson, Timothy Geithner, president of the New York Fed, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox, and a host of CEOs, including Vikram Pandit of Citigroup Inc., Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase & Co., John Mack of Morgan Stanley, Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Merrill Lynch & Co.'s John Thain.  Govt officials tried to broker a Lehman buyout, but would not backstop the deal as with Bear. Nobody would bite.  The source said the Fed and Treasury pushed B. of A. to buy Merrill. http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hCKSS1sJl3_Z9F0al2ztN1YxGO-gD936ORQG3http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/apwire/61b43e203125201d23e6cf65050fbc25.htm  George Friedman wrote:  

 Source on Merrill?  -----Original Message----- From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Kevin Stech Sent: Sunday, September 14, 2008 7:47 PM To: Analyst List Subject: wall st firms in deep shit  Lehman and Merrill are both set to declare bankruptcy unless they are bought or bailed.  Lehman especially looks doomed. AIG is planning a major asset sale to remain solvent.  Should be an interesting day in the markets tomorrow.  -- Kevin R. Stech Monitor/Researcher STRATFOR Ph: 512.744.4086 Em: kevin.stech@stratfor.com  _______________________________________________ Analysts mailing list  LIST ADDRESS:analysts@stratfor.com LIST INFO:https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts LIST ARCHIVE:https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts  _______________________________________________ Analysts mailing list  LIST ADDRESS:analysts@stratfor.com LIST INFO:https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts LIST ARCHIVE:https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts     

  -- Kevin R. Stech Monitor/Researcher STRATFOR Ph: 512.744.4086 Em: kevin.stech@stratfor.com  _______________________________________________ Analysts mailing list  LIST ADDRESS:analysts@stratfor.com LIST INFO:https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts LIST ARCHIVE:https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts _______________________________________________ Analysts mailing list  LIST ADDRESS:analysts@stratfor.com LIST INFO:https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts LIST ARCHIVE:https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts  

 -- Kevin R. Stech Monitor/Researcher STRATFOR Ph: 512.744.4086 Em: kevin.stech@stratfor.com
","2008-09-15 04:21:32",1,"2011-03-15 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1151645_re-wall-st-firms-in-deep-shit-.html","friedman@att.blackberry.net","","analysts@stratfor.com,kevin.stech@stratfor.com",""
1151790,"RE: INSIGHT - Iran/Iraq/US - iranian response to sanctions in Iraq
","   As I see it the Iranians are in a sort of a bind on how the can use Iraq
   against the United States. On one hand, things are looking pretty good in
   terms of Tehran's Shia allies dominating the next government, which means
   Iran filling the geopolitical vacuum created by the withdrawal of U.S.
   forces. That alone could force the American hand. So, it is not clear if
   the IRI wants to light a fire under its western neighbor and ruin its own
   position. Keep in mind that the al-Sadrite militia is more of a symbolic
   tool than a real one. It is no longer the fighting force it used to be and
   by (Iranian) design. The Iranians have other non-brand name entities that
   they can rely on should the need arise.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
   Sent: June-15-10 10:05 AM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - Iran/Iraq/US - iranian response to sanctions in
   Iraq

    

   yes, have some additional insight on what the Iranians have been planning
   for the Sadrites and their comeback

    

    

   On Jun 15, 2010, at 8:47 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

   we wrote about al-Sadrite's decision to reactivate Mahdi Army and Iranian
   moves behind it on April 23
   (http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100423_iraq_sectarian_tensions_and_alsadrite_reemergence)
   Radical Iraqi Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr's movement has called on its
   armed wing, the Mehdi Army, to help the country's security forces protect
   its Shiite majority against militant attacks. Senior al-Sadrite leader
   Baha al-Araji criticized the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki
   for incompetence in failing to prevent recent bombings.
   ...
   In other words, the statement about reviving the al-Sadrite militia is not
   just about sectarian power struggles, but also intra-Shia power politics.
   At a higher level, talk of resuscitating the Mehdi Army could also be a
   signal from Iran - which is closely controlling the evolution of the
   al-Sadrite movement - to the United States that Washington must accept an
   Iranian-leaning Shiite-dominated Iraqi government or risk having its
   drawdown plans upset by sectarian warfare. At this preliminary stage, it
   is unclear whether the Mehdi Army will be re-activated - and if so, in
   what shape or form. But in the context of Iraqi government formation and
   the continuing U.S.-Iranian fight for Iraq, the development is key amidst
   growing sectarian tensions.
   Peter Zeihan wrote:

   how seriously do we take this bit:

   The source says Iran has decided to reactivate the Mahdi army. 

   Reginald Thompson wrote:

   PUBLICATION: analysis/background

   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: well-connected Arab journalist working for BBC,
   focused on Iraq
   SOURCE  Reliability :  C 
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

    

   Iran's answer to the new sanctions will begin in Iraq. The formation of a
   grand coalition between the State of Law Coalition and the Iraqi National
   Coalition is the first step in Iran's answer. Iran will complicate matters
   in Iraq for the US in a way that makes the redeployment of the US troops a
   daunting matter.

   The source says Iran has decided to reactivate the Mahdi army. He says he
   expects al-Qaeda's terror attacks in Iraq to resurge now that they have
   decided to escalate their pressure on their common US \"enemy.\"  He does
   not expect Iraqi Shiites to start any military provocations of US troops
   in Iraq immediately. They want, nevertheless, to convince the US that this
   is a ready option for them. The source expects the political and security
   situation in Iraq to deteriorate. He says Iranian president mahmud
   Ahmadinejad has consolidated his power in Iran and has, in fact, assumed
   the operational prerogatives of Ayatollah Khamene

 --

 Emre Dogru

  

 STRATFOR

 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514

 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468

 emre.dogru@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

    
","2010-06-15 16:14:32",1,"2012-08-05 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1151790_re-insight-iran-iraq-us-iranian-response-to-sanctions-in.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1153672,"Re: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview
","   It think this is going to take the turks by surprise. Kamran. Write to
   ibrahim and get his reaction.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 4 Jun 2010 13:57:41 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview
   NOte that he's very noticeably distancing his movment from the IHH
   On Jun 4, 2010, at 1:51 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     This should be repped.  
      
     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On
     Behalf Of Bayless Parsley
     Sent: June-04-10 2:50 PM
     To: Analyst List
     Subject: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview
      
     Reclusive Turkish Imam Criticizes Gaza Flotilla
     http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704025304575284721280274694.html#printMode

     6/4/10

     By JOE LAURIA

     SAYLORSBURG, Pa.*Imam Fethullah Gu:len, a controversial and reclusive
     U.S. resident who is considered Turkey's most influential religious
     leader, criticized a Turkish-led flotilla for trying to deliver aid
     without Israel's consent.

     Speaking in his first interview with a U.S. news organization, Mr.
     Gu:len spoke of watching news coverage of Monday's deadly confrontation
     between Israeli commandos and Turkish aid group members as its flotilla
     approached Israel's sea blockade of Gaza. \"What I saw was not pretty,\"
     he said. \"It was ugly.\"

     Mr. Gu:len said organizers' failure to seek accord with Israel before
     attempting to deliver aid \"is a sign of defying authority, and will not
     lead to fruitful matters.\"

     Mr. Gu:len's views and influence within Turkey are under growing
     scrutiny now, as factions within the country battle to remold a
     democracy that is a key U.S. ally in the Middle East. The struggle, as
     many observers characterize it, pits the country's old-guard secularist
     and military establishment against Islamist-leaning government workers
     and ruling politicians who say they seek a more democratic and
     religiously tolerant Turkey. Mr. Gu:len inspires a swath of the latter
     camp, though the extent of his reach remains hotly disputed.

     His words of restraint come as many in Turkey gave flotilla members a
     hero's welcome after two days of detention in Israel. Prime Minister
     Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the ruling Justice and Development Party
     condemned Israel's moves as \"bullying\" and a \"historic mistake.\"

     Mr. Gu:len said he had only recently heard of IHH, the Istanbul-based
     Islamic charity active in more than 100 countries that was a lead
     flotilla organizer. \"It is not easy to say if they are politicized or
     not,\" he said. He said that when a charity organization linked with his
     movement wanted to help Gazans, he insisted they get Israel's
     permission. He added that assigning blame in the matter is best left to
     the United Nations.

     Mr. Gu:len has long cut a baffling figure, as critics and adherents have
     sparred over the nature of his influence in Turkey and the extent of his
     reach. Leading a visitor on Wednesday past his front corridor*adorned
     with a map of Turkey, a verse from the Quran and a photograph of a
     Turkish F-16 jet over the Bosphorus*he portrayed himself an apolitical
     teacher. \"I do not consider myself someone who has followers,\" he said.
     More

         * Opinion: Turkey's Radical Drift
         * New Aid Ship Heads to Gaza
         * Israel Explores Easing Its Blockade of Gaza
         * Turkish Group Sees Victory in Martyrdom
         * Israel's Isolation Deepens
         * In Israel and Abroad, Raid Spurs Criticism of Military's Judgment
         * Aboard Marmara, Skirmish Turns Deadly
         * Complete Coverage: WSJ.com/Mideast 

     Born in eastern Turkey in 1941, Mr. Gu:len became a state-licensed imam
     at 17, after three years of formal education and studies with Sufi
     masters. In a Turkey largely under the sway of a military-secularist
     establishment, he built a national organization of Islamic study and
     boarding halls, gaining support of many wealthy Muslims but at times
     running afoul of the law.

     While in the U.S. in 1999 for medical treatment, he was charged in
     Turkey with attempting to create an Islamic state* anathema under
     Turkey's secularist constitution. He stayed in Pennsylvania, where he
     now lives on a 25-acre estate in the Pocono Mountains. Over the years,
     he said, he has left the estate twice.

     Mr. Gu:len preaches nonviolence, dialogue between Western and Muslim
     worlds, and an educational tradition that combines study of science and
     Islam. His newspaper columns, weekly Internet sermons and other messages
     have been collected into more than 60 books. His adherents number, by
     various estimates, three million to eight million.

     Followers have established hundreds of schools in more than 100
     countries and run an insurance company and an Islamic bank, Asya, that
     its 2008 annual report said had $5.2 billion in assets. They own
     Turkey's largest daily newspaper, Zaman; the magazine Aktion; a wire
     service; publishing companies; a radio station and the television
     network STV, according to Helen Rose Ebaugh, a University of Houston
     sociologist and author of \"The Gu:len Movement.\" She says followers
     donate up to one-third of their income to independent Gu:len-linked
     foundations.

     Ms. Ebaugh said Mr. Gu:len doesn't sit on the boards of Asha bank nor
     any foundation or editorial boards of Gu:len-sympathetic magazines,
     newspapers or television stations. In the interview, the imam said he
     had no financial interest in any holdings.

     Mr. Gu:len's detractors see him as a cult-like leader whose empire aims
     to train an Islamic elite who will one day rebuild the Turkish state.
     Soner Cagaptay, a Gu:len critic who is a Turkey analyst at the
     Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says the Turkish police force
     may be largely influenced by the imam through Gu:len sympathizers in key
     positions*effectively creating a counterbalance to Turkey's powerful
     military, a secularist bastion.

     \"I am not a leader of a faction or someone who would cause some state
     officials to follow me despite their official duties,\" Mr. Gu:len said
     in the interview.

     The U.S. has \"immense ambivalence\" about Mr. Gu:len, said Graham Fuller,
     an ex-Central Intelligence Agency officer who is a resident consultant
     at the Rand Corp. in British Columbia.

     \"On the one hand they do perceive him as very moderate and doing many
     positive things,\" Mr. Fuller said. But Washington has long thrown its
     lot behind the secularist followers of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, he says,
     viewing them \"as the only narrative to what Turkish politics is all
     about.\"

     The U.S. State Department declined to comment about Mr. Gu:len for this
     article.

     In 2007, U.S. Homeland Security moved to deny Mr. Gu:len
     permanent-resident status in the U.S., rejecting his claim of
     exceptional ability as an educator. \"The record contains overwhelming
     evidence that plaintiff is primarily the leader of a large and
     influential religious and political movement with immense commercial
     holdings,\" the government wrote.

     Mr. Gu:len won on appeal after getting 29 letters of support, including
     one from Mr. Fuller.

     The imam disputed Homeland Security's characterization. He goes only so
     far as to provide guidance to those who ask, he said.

     The 2002 election of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, opened a
     new era for Mr. Gu:len and those he inspires, given their common foe in
     the military-secularist establishment.

     The AKP says it has no political ties to Mr. Gu:len. The imam says
     critics have linked him, falsely, to Turkey's current and previous
     leaders. \"I do not have and have never had any relationship with a
     movement that has political aspirations,\" he said. \"I am just a Turkish
     citizen.\"

     Last month, Mr. Gu:len's followers founded the Assembly of Turkic
     American Federations in Washington, a lobbying and umbrella organization
     for some 180 local non-profit foundations around the U.S. involved in
     education and culture.

     An English-language Turkish newspaper reported that Mr. Gu:len has told
     his followers they couldn't visit him on his Poconos estate if they
     didn't first donate to their local congressman. Mr. Gulen denies making
     the remark.

     Mr. Gu:len said that for Muslims, benefiting their community is both an
     Islamic and humanitarian duty, and that he would be happy if those who
     respect him support their lawmakers in the name of democracy and
     humanitarianism.

     \"I hear that some people in the United States consider Turkey as sitting
     at the epicenter of radicalism,\" Mr. Gu:len said. The new federation's
     lobbying would aim \"to reflect through sincere, pro-dialog and
     open-minded people the true nature of Turkey's realities.\"

     Write to Joe Lauria at newseditor@wsj.com
","2010-06-04 21:00:04",1,"2012-03-12 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1153672_re-turkey-israel-gulen-criticizes-flotilla-in-wsj-interview-.html","friedman@att.blackberry.net","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1153776,"Re: INSIGHT - Turkey used UAVs during the Iraqi incursion [follow-up
	of discussion - Re: guidance on Turkey]
","   he says Turkey doesn't need Israeli assistance to fly them. (thus, Israeli
   decision to pull UAV instructors is not damaging). but of course, Turks
   may need Israeli help to fix if there is a technical problem in UAVs.

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

     so this source is claiming that Turkey doesn't need Israeli assistance
     for the UAVs?
     On Jun 17, 2010, at 8:57 AM, Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

       ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
       SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Confederation source  - Sabah (pro-government)
       PUBLICATION: Yes
       SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
       ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
       DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
       SPECIAL HANDLING: None
       SOURCE HANDLER: Emre

       Source says UAVs took off from the UAV air base in Batman (a
       southeastern province of Turkey) and provided real-time intelligence
       to the Turkish army during Turkish commandos' incursion to the
       Northern Iraq yesterday. Turkish army's press release implies this as
       well [it says they watched the operation live.emre.] No idea on how
       many UAVs were sent to Iraq. Source thinks that Turkey has the
       necessary technical capability to fly these birds. [there were reports
       few weeks ago that UAVs bought from Israel were transferred to the UAV
       air base in Batman.emre]

       George Friedman wrote:

         On the uav's. They got them. They don't know how to use and maintain
         them. Its a problem.

         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Emre Dogru <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
         Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2010 10:49:39 -0500 (CDT)
         To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
         Subject: Re: guidance on Turkey
         Turks realized that the initial passion needs to be backed with
         actions and Turkey cannot easily do that now. Turkey keeps repeating
         that no military treaty was canceled. The biggest threat that I've
         seen so far is to decrease level of diplomatic ties, which is not
         much of a threat. This what creates fissure between Gulen and Akp,
         because Gulen does not want the relations detoriated only due to
         Erdogan's rhetoric, which they think mainly for domestic political
         reasons.
         Agree that Pkk is becoming an increasingly pressing issue (I can
         tell you how Erdogan is nervous about this and how he lashes out at
         every one) But Israel's decision to pull UAV instructors is not
         huge. It doesn't make Turkey looser. After all Turkey got six of
         them and will get remaining four. Turkey will be able to fly them,
         at worst with a little delay. Also, we don't know yet the extent to
         which UAVs would be effective against Pkk. Plus, Turkey relies on
         real time intel sharing with the us more than Israel. If Israel
         starts to lobby on the US to stop this mechanism, that would be the
         nightmare of Erdogan.
         Chp has a long way to go to gain on Akp for the moment. Their main
         criticism is gov's inability on Gaza and Akp knows this. Also, we
         have a const amendment package debate ahead, I am sure Erdogan has
         several scenarios for that. 

         Sent from my iPhone
         On Jun 16, 2010, at 17:38, George Friedman <gfriedman@stratfor.com>
         wrote:

           The things I didn't want to write from the region.

           The Turks have taken a tremendous beating and the Israelis have
           come out in remarkably good position.  

           First, on the tactical side, the Israeli-Turkish intelligence
           sharing agreement required that the Turks screen the passengers on
           the ships.  This screening took place but the Israelis have now
           shown the Turks and others intelligence that the Turks either (1)
           failed to detect the intentions of a group of people in the
           flotilla or their backgrounds) (2) detected it and failed to tell
           either Israel or the United States or (3) intentionally deceived
           Israel. The passion of the first days has dissipated into internal
           feuding. Obviously the CHP is making headway against AKP, The
           Gulen-AKP squabble has shaken confidence in the movement, and
           there were some quiet comments that Devotoglu (still can't spell
           or pronounce his name) is a great man and intellectual but not up
           to power politics.  I certainly didn't have a chance to reach a
           judgment on this.  However, I got a clear sense of divisions in
           the AKP based on personalities, style and substance.  This is not
           deeper than the splits in any political party, but its there. The
           Israelis are happy as hell.  The avalanche hasn't materialized. An
           international inquiry isn't going to happen and the Turks have
           stopped demanding it, except pro forma.  The Turks have discovered
           that a propaganda coup works only when you can back it up with
           follow-on power and they just don't have that yet.

           Second, the Israelis hit them in the one place that really hurts,
           pulling trainers on UAVs.  Actually these trainers were operating
           against the PKK in recce.  The Israeli military relationship is
           not trivial for the Turks.  They are modernizing form a Cold War
           military to a modern net-centric force and they have invested
           heavily in Israeli equipment.  They urgently need this stuff to
           deal with PKK and losing these capabilities creates serious
           problems.  The issue here isn't a coup by the Army or such
           nonsense. It is that one of the things AKP must show is their
           vigor against the PKK.  This is a significant issue in Turkey and
           AKP can't put it on hold while they posture against the Israelis. 
           AKP can really lose the next election over PKK.  So, the Israeli
           move was a surgical strike against the AKP. This can, of course,
           be reversed and that is the point.  I met with the Israeli
           Ambassador to Azerbaijan and he laid out for me why this isn't the
           crisis it appeared and why countermeasures against Turkey really
           hurt.  We can expect resumption of training and assistance from
           the Israelis without announcement.

           Third, the Turks got totally hammered by the Egyptians.  They
           viewed Turkish policy as a direct attack on the Mubarak government
           and a threat to Egyptian national security.  The Egyptians were
           furious on two counts. First, the Turks didn't consult them.
           Second, the Turks didn't seem to be aware of Egypt's anti-Hamas
           policy or didn't care.  The logic of the Turkish position is that
           they move from this crisis to leadership in the Arab world.  They
           could do that, but they can't lead everyone. They need to make
           decisions on supporting Hamas and that involves alienating Egypt
           and Fatah.  They do NOT want to support Hezbollah, but they also
           don't want to break with them.  The Israelis are offering to end
           the Gaza blockade precisely because they know the Egyptians will
           do the heavy lifting for them on Hamas.  The Turkish policy on no
           enemies among their neighbors is unsupportable in the Arab world.
           Once you are involved, you will have enemies.  The core of their
           strategy is not to get deeply involved in such issues.  The logic
           of the flotilla was to get involved.  The divergent logics are
           causing a reboot in the Turkish government.  The flotilla issue is
           bleeding off while they calculate their moves.

           They are of course unhappy publicly with the U.S. rejection of
           their idea on nuclear weapons.  When pressed, they will admit they
           were in full consultation with the U.S., expected it and see this
           as a part of the negotiating process. The Turks have an odd
           naivete.  On one level they are completely sophisticated. On
           another, they seem to expect to be thanked for first efforts and
           are insulted when they aren't.  I think this has to do with
           Devotuglu who is really a theoretician more than an operator.  He
           has devoted followers who admire him deeply, but I think his
           brittleness and lack of forethought on what comes next may have
           hurt him.  

           The secular-religious shift is unbelievably rigid from the secular
           side. I had dinner with a physician whose father was a general,
           and there is no give in his position. He seemed serious about
           leaving Turkey and he believes AKP will lose the next elections. 
           I have no idea whether it will or not, but it seemed to me in
           several conversations that if AKP wins, that will create a crisis
           in the secular side much deeper than it is now.  There is a
           believe that AKP is a passing event.  If it proves not to be, that
           will be the critical point.  

           My read having gone through the region on the flotilla crisis is
           that his has not done anything to increase Arab unity, nor has it
           bought the Turks into a leadership role. More precisely, the Turks
           flinched when they saw the price that leadership would exact.  The
           Israelis have waged a superb propaganda campaign focusing on the
           attack on them and in Europe, a series of articles charging
           critics of Israel with anti-antisemitism, written by significant
           figures in Europe, has stemmed the hemorrhage.  Anti-Muslim and
           anti-Turkish feeling in  Europe is deeper than anti-Israeli
           feeling  among the public.  Intellectuals and others  of course 
           remain anti-Israeli, but they don't shape political life and the
           political leaders are not prepared to go too far with a
           pro-Turkish, pro-Arab policy.

           Obviously this could all flare up but my view was that the passion
           that was present in Turkey when I arrived was dissipated when I
           left, and that the government is starting to feel the costs of a
           break with Israel.  The Israelis will issue a scathing report on
           themselves, but only on the failure of planning.  Privately, they
           are telling the Turks that this crisis was, if not planned by
           them, their fault for failing to identify the demonstrators as
           they promised they would.  This is raising the issue in
           Turkey--very quietly--of whether this was planned (and therefore
           mishandled in the aftermath) or a mistake (in which case a failure
           in execution).  

           Certainly the sense of Turkish leadership for the Palestinians is
           no longer there.

           I will have other reports as I recover.
           -- 
           George Friedman
           Founder and CEO
           Stratfor
           700 Lavaca Street
           Suite 900
           Austin, Texas 78701
           Phone  512-744-4319
           Fax  512-744-4334

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-06-17 16:03:19",1,"2012-03-01 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1153776_re-insight-turkey-used-uavs-during-the-iraqi-incursion.html","emre.dogru@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1154178,"discussion4 - econ/financial - lehman bros next to bite the dust
","Lehman is down about 40% today as investors fear the imminent break up
of the iconic Wall st. i-bank.  They bet heavily on US mortgage backed
securities, and lost even more heavily (due to massive leverage).  There
are talks on of splitting into 2 entities, a \"good\" bank with salable
assets, and a \"bad\" bank that will sit there and hold the bag of
worthless subprime and alt-a backed MBS's and other shaky derivatives.

The questions now are:  1) will the implosion of lehman generate another
wave of counterparty risk to other banks who hold the other side of the
derivative contracts?  2) will the federal reserve step in and finance
the creation of the \"bad\" bank, much like they extended a nearly 30 bn
usd credit line to jp morgan to buy bear stearns?  3) and importantly,
what happens to the counterparties to the \"BAD\" bank when it finally
collapses?

there are a lot of worthless securities floating around out there,
propping up very large and very undeserved market capitalizations.  when
does the next round of credit losses hit?  lehman reports earnings sept.
16, so i smell a \"deal\" going down this weekend before the reportedly
giant ($3.9 bn is what i've heard) write down occurs at lehman.  watch
the breakup occur this weekend, with a panicky wave of investor flight
rippling through other financial houses.

other banks are in trouble too.  citigroup has been described by
insiders as a 'dead bank walking.'  washington mutual is also screwed.

thoughts?

-- 
Kevin R. Stech
Monitor/Researcher
STRATFOR
Ph: 512.744.4086
Em: kevin.stech@stratfor.com

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","2008-09-11 17:08:21",1,"2011-03-15 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1154178_discussion4-econ-financial-lehman-bros-next-to-bite-the-dust.html","kevin.stech@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1160182,"[alpha] Jared Cohen (GOOGLE)
","
** From a senior GOOGLE Exec reference Jared Cohen, global rabblerouser
and beatnik. 



Not that I'm aware of.  He heeded the advice to avoid Turkey and UAE and
didn't go on that trip



---------------------------------------

Is he playing a role in Libya?   Fred
","2011-03-30 14:56:37",1,"2012-03-14 22:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1160182_-alpha-jared-cohen-google-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1162055,"Re: Individual summaries- russia spying
","Colby & Sean - Good work

Sean Noonan wrote:
> Juan Lazaro/ Vicky Palaez  (Yonkers, NY)
>      -First indication of FBI surveillance:
>                     January 14, 2000 travel to unknown South American
> country. 
>      -Contacts:
>                   Russian Government Official #1, who is a verified RGO
> in the South American country
>                   Seem to have only passed information when in South
> America, but unclear 
>                    (FBI had telephone intercepts, but not clear with
> who, seems to be between the two)
>     -Travel Abroad:
>           -Palaez to South America 1/14/2000 met unknownâ€œindividualâ€ in
> Public Park (same as first surveillance)
>           -Palaez to South America February 20, 2002 met unknown
> â€œindividualâ€ in Public Park
>            -Palaez to South America January 8, 2003 to South America, no
> info on who she met or where
>            -Lazaro to South America August 25, 2007 met with Russian
> Govâ€™t Official (confirmed)
> 
> Richard Murphy and Cynthia Murphy  (Hoboken, Montclair NJ)
>     -First indication of FBI surveillance:
>                     Richard Murphy began meeting Metsos Feb 24, 2001
> (first details of one of these meetings is 3/31/2002)
>     -Contacts-
>                  Christopher R. Metsos in 2004
>                  Michael Zottoli  (Patricia Mills was present) 2004, 2009
>                  Russian Government Official #3 (3rd Secretary in
> Russia's Mission to UN in NY)
>                 Electonic Communication with Moscow
>     -Travel Abroad:
>                 Richard Murphy traveled to Moscow via Italy February 21,
> 2010 , returned March 5, 2010
> 
> Michael Zottoli and Patricia Mills  (Seattle, Arlington
>     -First indication of FBI surveillance:
>                 -June 19, 2004 meeting with Murphy
>     -Contacts
>              -Richard Murphy
>              Electronic Communication with Moscow
>     -Travel abroad  
>           -None listed
> 
> Christopher R. Metsos (Who was arrested with reversed first/middle
> name)  unknown residence
>     -First indication of FBI surveillance:
>            -Metsos began meeting Murphy at a restaurant Feb 24, 2001
> (first details of one of these meetings is 3/31/2002)
>     Contacts:
>              Richard Murphy
>              Russiang Government Official #2  (Second Secretary in
> Russian Mission to UN, NY),  2004 brush pass
>     Travel:
>           Unknown, believed to have lived in Canada
>           Arrested in Cyprus at 3am June 28 boarding flight Budapest,
> had been in Cyprus from June 17
>         
> (Listed in Cypriot news as: Robert Christopher Metsos, 55)
> 
> Donald Howard Heathfield and Tracey Lee Ann Foley  (Cambridge, Mass)
>         -First indication of FBI surveillance:
>                 -FBI searches safe deposit box listed under their names
> Jan 23, 2001
>        Contacts
>              Electronic Communication with Moscow
>         Travel
>                 Foley travels to Moscow via Paris on March, 2010
>          
> 
> 
> 
> -- 
> 
> Sean Noonan
> 
> Tactical Analyst
> 
> Office: +1 512-279-9479
> 
> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
> 
> Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
> 
> www.stratfor.com
> 
","2010-06-29 21:47:41",1,"2012-03-14 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1162055_re-individual-summaries-russia-spying-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,sean.noonan@stratfor.com,tactical@stratfor.com",""
1162925,"Re: Comrade J (CJ)
","Will ask, I don't know.

Sean Noonan wrote:
> 911 call was at 7:08pm, why did they report that he died in the morning?
> 
> Fred Burton wrote:
>> According to JJ Green at WTOP (pls protect the sourcing) CJ had high
>> cholesterol, high blood pressure and suffered from seasonal allergies
>> (pollen).  He had lost weight, but his entertainment patio looked like a
>> Georgetown bar.  Green said CJ drank wine at lunch, but did not appear
>> to be a heavy drinker in his company.  The wife will continue to provide
>> exclusive interviews with Green, which has pissed off Pete Earley the
>> author of the book.  If we have any questions for the wife, pls let me
>> know.  Thanks
>>
>>
>>
>>   
> 
> -- 
> 
> Sean Noonan
> 
> Tactical Analyst
> 
> Office: +1 512-279-9479
> 
> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
> 
> Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
> 
> www.stratfor.com
> 
","2010-07-14 21:22:17",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1162925_re-comrade-j-cj-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","sean.noonan@stratfor.com,tactical@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
1164190,"GOOGLE Loose Canon Bound for Turkey & UAE (SENSITIVE - DO NOT FORWARD)
","** A  note from a senior GOOGLE Exec.  Pls protect the origin.  The msg
pertains to Jared Cohen's plans to travel to Turkey and UAE, on the
heals of his antics in Egypt and Tunisia.  As you can see, there are
folks @ GOOGLE not happy w/his actions.....

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


I'm committed to helping Jared do his job and making Google an active
participant in the four priority areas for Google Ideas.  We do have
concerns regarding his travel there.  Right now Jared is a lightning rod
(said lovingly).  His \"baggage\" as a U.S. State Dept policymaker, his
research and publications on Muslim extremists and youth movements and
his presence in Egypt just as the uprising started presents a unique
convergence.   

I'd put them in several buckets:

   1. Following Egypt and the \"baggage\" Jared carries his engagement
      with people in the youth movements focused on Iran may be viewed
      as an instigator.  There is potential risk to Google's brand and
      each situation further perpetuates the image of Jared as a spy or
      agent of the U.S (or Israeli) Gov't. He will be receiving a lot of
      attention around the \"Formers\" event just as he will make this
      trip so his profile will be very high.
   2. There is a possibility, although we believe small right now, that
      Jared could get detained by one of the governments who sees him as
      a threat to their power and stability. 
   3. There is potential for harm to the people who meet with Jared.
      While the location of the meeting is outside Iran we should not
      discount the extent of surveillance and data gathering efforts by
      those regimes.  The identification of Jared's associates may
      result in detainment of them or their families.  

Our recommendation is that Jared take a lower profile on this specific
trip and let time pass before being visible and associated with people
known by their states to be active in challenging repressive societies.
 We can talk Friday by phone if that's convenient. 
","2011-03-10 16:52:45",1,"2012-03-14 22:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1164190_google-loose-canon-bound-for-turkey-and-uae-sensitive-do-not.html","burton@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
1166525,"RE: Comrade J on Polish Plane Crash
","   Yeah, and Putin even farted the fog first to make it all fall in line.

    

    

    

    

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, April 22, 2010 8:16 PM
   To: Marko Papic
   Cc: 'Secure List'
   Subject: Re: Comrade J on Polish Plane Crash

    

   Interesting

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic <marko.papic@stratfor.com>

   Date: Thu, 22 Apr 2010 16:55:53 -0600

   To: Fred Burton<burton@stratfor.com>

   Cc: 'Secure List'<secure@stratfor.com>

   Subject: Re: Comrade J on Polish Plane Crash

    

   This was actually one of the theories that one of my contacts also gave
   me. But the intention was not to kill Kacynzki, just make his life
   difficult by forcing him to land in Minsk and therefore miss the Katyn
   Massacre ceremonies set to begin in an hour from landing. But instead, the
   pilots tried to land anyways and crashed the flight.

   Fred Burton wrote:

   The Russians purposefully denied the aircraft the ability to land knowing
   that the Polish President would either force the pilot to land based upon
   their own leadership analysis collection of the President's m.o.; or the
   plane would return and not land at the location. 

    

   He claims purposeful act.  His words not mine. 

    

   Reportedly, the Russians have similar plans (scenarios) for other foreign
   leaders that can be pulled off the shelf if desired by Putin/FSB.

    

   Follow up questions welcomed. 

    

    

    

    

 --

  

 Marko Papic

  

 STRATFOR

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A

 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094

 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334

 marko.papic@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com
","2010-04-23 02:40:54",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1166525_re-comrade-j-on-polish-plane-crash-.html","scott.stewart@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,marko.papic@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
1168958,"Re: [CT] contradictory quotes about tretyakov autopsy
","   This July 26 date might be for public release--rather than the FBI and
   Yelena's view of it.  We really don't know. 
   We are waiting for a recording of the 911 call.  There a number of ways to
   kill people that don't show up in an autopsy. 

   And while Tretyakov wasn't in WITSEC, the FBI (and CIA presumably) are
   going to be afraid of being publicly held partly responsible for his
   death, if it was foulplay. 

   All that said, a suspicious death would trigger what happened over the
   last few weeks, even if they now know it was natural causes.

   Colby Martin wrote:

     Below are the two contradictory quotes

     >From Pete Early blog:
     http://www.peteearley.com/blog/2010/07/09/sergei-tretyakov-comrade-j-has-died/
     Helen asked those of us who were his friends to not immediately reveal
     his death until an autopsy could be performed under the supervision of
     the FBI. She was concerned that Sergei's former colleagues in Russia's
     SVR, which replaced the KGB as Russia's foreign intelligence service,
     might attempt to use his unexpected death for propaganda purposes.
     That autopsy has now been completed and it showed no evidence of foul
     play, according to an FBI official who spoke to me off-the-record.

     >From article: Former top Russian spy Sergei Tretyakov dies at 53
     http://www.svherald.com/content/associatedpress/former-top-russian-spy-sergei-tretyakov-dies-53
     The medical examiner's office in Sarasota County, Fla., is conducting an
     autopsy on Tretyakov. A woman who answered the phone at the office said
     it would be completed sometime after July 26.

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: Author of Comrade J on Tretyakov's death                       
         Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2010 10:11:42 -0500                                
         From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>                         
     Reply-To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>                           
           To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>, The OS List              
               <os@stratfor.com>, Tactical <tactical@stratfor.com>            

     http://www.peteearley.com/blog/2010/07/09/sergei-tretyakov-comrade-j-has-died/

     Sergei Tretyakov, Comrade J, has died.
     Published by Pete on July 9, 2010 in Books and Personal.
     I am sorry to announce that my good friend, Sergei Tretyakov, the
     subject of my book, Comrade J: The Untold Secrets of Russia's Master Spy
     in America After the End of the Cold War, died unexpectedly on June 13th
     in his home with his wife, Helen.
     Sergei was 53.
     Helen asked those of us who were his friends to not immediately reveal
     his death until an autopsy could be performed under the supervision of
     the FBI. She was concerned that Sergei's former colleagues in Russia's
     SVR, which replaced the KGB as Russia's foreign intelligence service,
     might attempt to use his unexpected death for propaganda purposes.
     That autopsy has now been completed and it showed no evidence of foul
     play, according to an FBI official who spoke to me off-the-record. Helen
     said her husband died from massive cardiac arrest.
     In keeping with Russian Orthodox religious traditions, a private funeral
     was held on the third day after his death. On the ninth day, more than
     200 people attended a private celebration of his life. The guests
     included close friends, neighbors and persons who had worked with him in
     the United States.
     Sergei was called \"the most important spy for the U.S. since the
     collapse of the Soviet Union\" by an FBI official in my book.
     Unfortunately, because much of what he said is still being used by U. S.
     counter-intelligence officers, it will be years before the true extent
     of his contribution can be made public - if ever.
     Sergei Olegovich Tretyakov was born Oct. 5, 1956 in Moscow and rose
     quickly through the ranks to become the second-in-command of the KGB in
     New York City between 1995 to 2000. As such, he oversaw all Russian spy
     operations against the US and its allies in New York City and within the
     United Nations.
     When he defected on Oct. 11, 2000, with Helen and their daughter,
     Ksenia, the U.S. government took the family into hiding and during the
     next five years, they lived largely \"off the grid.\" It wasn't until
     Comrade J was published and Sergei went on a book tour that his work
     both as a high-ranking KGB/SVR officer and U.S. operative was made
     public. It is thought that he spent at least three years working as a
     U.S. agent while he was still an SVR colonel in New York.
     Sergei, Helen and their daughter became U.S. citizens after they
     defected and although some federal officials feared for their safety,
     Sergei lived openly under his own name without protection - although
     when he traveled overseas, he always had an FBI escort. Sergei was
     convinced that his U.S. citizenship protected him from the SVR, even
     though he continued to publicly criticize his former colleagues,
     especially President Vladimir Putin.
     The recent arrests of eleven Russian \"illegals\" on June 28th by the FBI
     thrust Sergei's name into the news once again. The fact that he was in
     charge of all covert operations in New York City when several of the
     illegals entered the country suggested that he was aware of their
     operations and quickly led to speculation that he had tipped-off the FBI
     about the ring.
     However, on Thursday, a  informed source told me that Sergei was not
     involved in the case. Sergei told U.S. officials when he was debriefed
     about Russian \"illegal\" operations, but he did not know the individuals
     who later were arrested, my source said.
     I became close friends with Sergei and Helen while working on my book
     about their life and his career. They insisted that I stay with them in
     their home and during our weeks together, I witnessed first-hand how
     much he and Helen loved each other, their devotion to their daughter,
     and love for their new homeland. I also was delighted to discover that
     Helen was a gourmet cook!
     Sergei dispelled many of the Hollywood stereotypes of a Russian agent.
     He was well-educated, fluent in three languages, quick-witted,
     personable and able to laugh at his own mistakes when he didn't
     understand an American tradition or slang.
     He proved to be a tireless worker when I interviewed him. He would speak
     for ten hours straight, often pacing back-and-forth, in the family room
     of his house as we discussed his career. He had a fabulous memory that
     he had sharpened as a KGB/SVR officer and he refused to speculate or
     exaggerate when he discussed KGB/SVR operations.  He knew his enemies in
     Russia would use the slightest mistake to attack his credibility so he
     was scrupulous in what he said and the charges that he made.
     Having written bestselling books about two American traitors, including
     John Walker Jr., and his Family of Spies,and Aldrich Ames, the CIA
     turncoat, I was struck at how different Sergei was from U.S. traitors.
     Walker and Ames were motivated by greed and money. Sergei did not need
     money. Upon his return to Russia from New York, he was due to be
     promoted to the rank of general, which would have guaranteed him a cushy
     retirement. He had assets in Moscow worth more than two million U.S.
     dollars - money that was stripped from him after he defected.
     It was clear to me early on that he did not swtich sides for financial
     gain, but rather because he had lost faith in Russian leaders and he
     wanted a better life for his young daughter. He liked to say that he did
     not betray his homeland. Rather he and other ordinary citizens in Russia
     had been betrayed by Presidents Boris Yeltsin and Putin after the Soviet
     Union collapsed.
     Neither Walker or Ames ever wanted to become Russian citizens, but
     Sergei and his family relished their U.S. citizenship. Sergei often told
     me that Americans were naive because they took freedoms for granted and
     did not understand how unique our lives here are compared to life in an
     oppressive nation, such as Russia whose leaders often silence their
     critics, especially those in the media, with a bullet.
     One reason why I believe Sergei did not know about the 11 Russians who
     were arrested as illegals is because he did not hold back during our
     interviews in identifying persons whom he claimed were Russian spies.
     Among the individuals identified in my book were a former member of the
     Canadian Parliament, a top-ranking verification expert at the
     International Atomic Energy Agency, and a former U.N. official who
     Sergei helped place in the Oil For Food Program. That UN official
     diverted a half billion US dollars of UN humanitarian relief to Moscow
     under both the Yeltsin and Putin administrations and was rewarded by
     Putin for the thefts. Sergei was disgusted by that thievery and said so.
     In our interviews, he talked repeatedly about how Yeltsin had failed the
     Russian people by becoming a drunken stumble-bum who allowed Oligarchs
     to engorge themselves by stealing government property. He had similar
     harsh criticisms for Putin, whom Sergei described as an insignificant
     KGB officer who later as president surrounded himself with thugs. Their
     primary goal has been to enrich themselves, he charged.
     Sergei asked me to write his story at the suggestion of a director in
     the British intelligence service. They were having dinner when my name
     was mentioned because the director had read my book about Aldrich Ames
     and had admired it. Sergei waived his rights to any advance money from
     the publisher and received less than $10,000 from the book's sales even
     though it was a New York Times bestseller. Money was not his motive in
     telling his story.
     Instead, he hoped to sound a wake-up call about Russia. He was fond of
     saying that the Cold War never ended. Before the collapse of the Soviet
     Union, the KGB had a list of three main adversaries: (1.) The United
     States  (2.) NATO and (3.) China. After the KGB was disbanded and the
     SVR was formed, Sergei said a new edict came down announcing that the
     SVR had three main targets: (1.) The United States (2.) NATO and (3.)
     China.
     \"What changed?\" he asked, laughing.
     Those of us who were his friends will miss his sense of humor, his
     knowledge about Russia and KGB/SVR spy-craft,  and his almost child-like
     love for his new country.
     I was honored to write his life story and to call him my friend.
     I will miss not hearing his voice when I call.

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-07-09 18:39:28",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1168958_re-ct-contradictory-quotes-about-tretyakov-autopsy-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1169425,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - Some thoughts on US, UK, France, Turkey
","   that should be 1.3 million per day*

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 10:24:55 AM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - Some thoughts on US, UK, France, Turkey

   My briefing yesterday with the USAF's strategy group was to help prep the
   USAF chief of staff before his trip to Turkey the first week of June. In
   this meeting, there was a US lt col, French lt col guy and British group
   captain, as well as the Europe guy from the State Dept's Office of the
   Secretary (who I completely owned in the discussion. he finally quit
   trying and then literally applauded stratfor's knowledge of these issues).
   Most of the discussion I had with them centered on our view on Turkey, the
   intermarium, Turkey's power struggle, etc. so nothing new to add there.
   The State Dept is still trying to wrap its head around how to deal with
   Turkey more effectively when it's becoming clear that Turkey isn't ready
   to handle everything on its plate. THere's also a lack of understanding on
   why Azerbaijan matters in this mix.  They're about to do what sounds like
   a pretty elaborate war game within NATO, and they complain that every time
   they do this, they're not allowed to call Iran 'Iran' in the game. It's
   referred to as 'Zagros'.  Why? Because the Turks insist on not calling
   Iran by it's name in these things.

   When I brought up Libya, and asked what's next in terms of the air
   campaign, the British adn French guys had an interesting response. The
   talk of UK only having 6 more months of funding for this air campaign is
   all about inter-service rivalry, justifying budgets, etc. The Brits and
   the French really don't seem concerned at all about the financial aspect.
   THey said it's an expense, but it's not expensive. It's costing each 1.3
   million euro per month to do Libya (including the daily patrols and
   everything else).  By comparison, Afghanistan costs them 1.4 million per
   month.

   They are fine with the stalemate. The British guy, who had met with the
   British air force chief a few days ago, said that no one is really trying
   to force the issue at this point. the rebels don't want to ask for state
   recognition until they get the West back. No one seems really prepared to
   force regime change and give that commitment, but they're willing to wait
   this one out until something gives within to make Ghadafi fall
   (non-militarily.)
   The money isn't what matters. What the Brits and the FRench are really
   getting out of this mil campaign is a good, hard lesson from their
   \"American cousins\" on command and control for these missions. The lesson
   here is vital for them. THey gave all sorts of examples. When the LIbya
   campaign began, France was still coordinating its mission with the UK
   through this lt col French liaison in the Pentagon instead of directly
   with UK. Now, finally, the Brits have set up a command office in Paris for
   them to coordinate. Little things like that make a huge difference, and
   the US is helping them along the way so that they can prove they can do
   missions like this more independently and manage their neighborhood.
   Classic balance of pwoer, as they put it. French-UK cooperation has really
   benefited from this whole thing. They could really care less that it's
   about Libya. They see this mission as a very useful boost for NATO and
   that this raises the bar for new entrants.

   I countered that you can't consider it a boost for NATO when you're
   missing GERMANY (!)  They acknowledged that NATO's original purpose is
   broken. These regional realignments, with France, UK adn US working
   closely together is the new future. They still seem to think that despite
   warming German-Russian ties, they don't need to worry yet about Germany.
   Their military is still largely seen as irrelevant, and so in that sense,
   NATO is still doing the job of keeping Germany down and Russia out.

   The French guy joked that now Strauss-Kahn is out of the running, Sarkozy
   doesn't need to continue the war in Libya anymore. He's got the election
","2011-05-19 17:39:07",1,"2012-03-06 07:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1169425_re-alpha-insight-some-thoughts-on-us-uk-france-turkey-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1172894,"Re: DISCUSSION - Insight on Iranian intentions in negotiations
","   Amendment to this:

     . It could certainly go down further, but a South Korean-style presence,
     especially with troops serving in the role of a conventional deterrent,
     not carrying out internal security functions, is not something I'd
     completely rule out -- IF it can be worked out with the government in
     Baghdad. And for that, you need a government in Baghdad...

   it's not about working that out with a government in Baghdad.  Even if you
   are talking to the govt in Baghdad, you are still dealing with Iran on
   this issue. First, you have to talk the Iranians.  Hence, the
   negotiations...
   On Aug 2, 2010, at 10:05 AM, Nate Hughes wrote:

     The SOFA says all troops out by the end of 2011. This is the time at
     which Iraqi security forces are expected to be capable of handling
     internal security issues on their own.

     Because this is the language of the SOFA, the U.S. military is making
     preparations to do just that. The U.S. embassy is making preparations
     for contractors to assist DSS with all manner of security required for
     the U.S. diplomatic mission.

     But I don't think this necessarily has to be the final settlement. The
     Iraqi military is not expected to be capable of external/territorial
     defense until 2018+. A lot of that can be covered by an implicit U.S.
     security guarantee and a presence in Kuwait with a lot of pre-positioned
     gear.

     But the re-establishment of a strategic reserve (which is G's focus on
     the drawdown as I understand it) will already begin to be possible with
     the drawdown to 50K. It could certainly go down further, but a South
     Korean-style presence, especially with troops serving in the role of a
     conventional deterrent, not carrying out internal security functions, is
     not something I'd completely rule out -- IF it can be worked out with
     the government in Baghdad. And for that, you need a government in
     Baghdad...

     Kamran Bokhari wrote:

       From what I have heard from G, DC needs to pull em out. And the other
       thing is that the Iraqis won't want them to stay. As for when they
       would leave, some time late next year is what I am seeing from the
       Obama administration. Of course that could change. 
       On 8/2/2010 10:40 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

         Question: when we talk about our continued desire to get out of
         Iraq, do we actually intend (at least publicly/legally) to fully
         withdraw these final 50,000 troops, ever? Or if not \"ever,\" in the
         next five-10 years? Not familiar with what the SOFA mandates must be
         done once our combat troops are all out. And obviously the answer
         would have a huge effect on these negotiations.

         Do we really \"need\" to pull them out, or would it not be that huge
         of a strain on our military to maintain troops there, just like we
         do in Europe, Korea, and tons of other places?

         Kamran Bokhari wrote:

           There isn't much time to do anything with the remaining troops.
           They are leaving one way or another. Iran knows that. Also, the
           only situation that I can see upsetting the drawdown schedule is
           massive violence combined with the various factions rapidly
           hurling into a direction opposite to that of a power-sharing
           formula. The talks are not going anywhere but no sign that these
           guys are about to say fuck it. Also, note that July was the
           deadliest month in terms of attacks since 2008. But U.S. forces
           continue to drawdown and ahead of schedule. Iran is also not
           interested in creating problems right now because it doesn't have
           the Shia house in order with al-Maliki feuding with
           al-Hakim/al-Sadr. 

           The key issue is therefore the 50k troops that will be left
           behind. Even then the Iranians don't have to do anything
           necessarily. Just play around with U.S. perceptions. They know
           that DC needs to pull them out but can't. Not without creating a
           vacuum that Tehran would exploit. So, they say we can let you go
           with assurances if you give us what we want, which is regime
           security, lifting of sanctions, and recognition of IRI's regional
           role. Hence the bit about holding them hostage. That said, do note
           that the al-Sadrites said recently that they will not tolerate any
           long-term American bases in country even in Kurdistan. So Iran has
           that option as well. but really their goal is to play with U.S.
           perceptions to get what they want. They won't need to do much more
           unless the U.S. says the 50K are digging in for the long haul. 
            
            
           On 8/2/2010 10:14 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

             I think it's a bit of both.  The demands outlined here make
             sense. At the same time, iran will want to convey the message
             that it has the upper hand and the US needs to be the one to
             make the first move.  This is why I'd like a better
             understanding of what can Iran actually do to the remaining
             troops in Iraq to upset the withdrawal or hold the leftover
             forces hostage?
             On Aug 2, 2010, at 8:44 AM, Rodger Baker wrote:

               if these are part of backchannel messaging to DC, how do we
               interpret these? as accurate assessments of iran's views, or
               as the position Iran wants people in the US admin and policy
               positions to think is the iranian position?
               On Aug 2, 2010, at 8:20 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

                 Please read the two pieces of insight below.  They both come
                 from the same source, who (I believe)  has used this
                 communication link through S4 in attempt to send messages to
                 the US administration. I believe this message below is being
                 transmitted through a number of backchannels.
                 I think this is important for us to publish in an article so
                 we can better define the Iranian position in this stage of
                 the negotiations.  It is clear that the Iranian priority is
                 Iraq in these nuclear negotiations, which should come as no
                 surprise to STRATFOR.  My biggest question is, are the
                 Iranians overestimating their leverage over the remaining US
                 troops in Iraq?  Perhaps there is an Iranian contingency
                 plan that we haven't fully considered?  Overall, the
                 Iranians are not under any great pressure to concede
                 anything big right now. It's up to the US to answer to their
                 demands in Iraq, and it's unclear to me whether the US is
                 really that much of a blocker to what Iran wants to achieve
                 in Iraq right now. It's also unclear to what extent Iran
                 would cooperate in allowing in inspectors again and in
                 temproarily freezing enrichment.  
                 PUBLICATION: for analysis
                 ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources
                 SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Iranian diplomat -- strongly suspected
                 of using S4 as backchannel to US admin
                 SOURCE  Reliability :  D
                 ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3 
                 DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
                 SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
                 Iran has informed the USA through back channels about its
                 perspective on resolving the current standoff with regard to
                 the Iranian nuclear program. The Iranian package includes
                 the following:
                 1. Iran wants the US to cease its support to secessionist
                 ethnic groups in Iran, namely the Balochs in
                 Balochistan-Sistan and Arabs in Khuzistan (Ahwas), in
                 addition to Mujahidin e-Khalq.
                 2. Iran will suspend uranium enrichment for a year.
                 3. Iran will give international inspectors access to its
                 nuclear sites.
                 4. Iran will allow US troops to withdraw smoothly from Iraq.
                 5. The US gives Iran a free hand in Iraq and allows it to
                 form the cabinet of its choice.

                 The source believes Iran has the upper hand over the US,
                 because the Obama administration's main concern is to ensure
                 a peaceful and disruption free withdrawal from Iraq. Iran
                 can make this happen, otherwise it can easily transform US
                 troops there into hostages. The Iranians strongly feel that
                 the fate of US troops in Iraq lies within their hands. s
                 Iran has the capacity to make or unmake president Obama.

                 The Iranians have told the Americans that they will not go
                 for Allawi's prime ministership. They very much prefer the
                 weak character of Nuri al-Maliki, whom they can easily use
                 to achieve their goals in Iraq.  Iran is quite hopeful that
                 al-Maliki will become next prime minister because Ayatollah
                 Ali Sistani has quietly endorsed his candidacy. He says the
                 reappointment of Maliki will neutralize the aspirations in
                 Iraq of Syria, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Iran will not
                 compromise on Iraq. It will delay its nuclear program but it
                 will not abandon it and they have made this matter
                 absolutely clear to the Americans. He thinks Iran will
                 prevail.

                   On 7/30/2010 9:59 AM, Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

                     PUBLICATION: analysis
                     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources
                     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Iranian diplomat
                     SOURCE  Reliability :  D
                     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
                     DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
                     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
                     ** This supports my earlier assumption that Iran still
                     feels like it has enough leverage in other places to
                     avoid making any real concessions in this next round of
                     talks.
                     There is nothing the Iranians like more than discussing
                     their nuclear program.  Iran is keenly interested in
                     negotiating its nuclear options. He adds that \"we are
                     only interested in the process of negotiation and do not
                     intend to make concessions that may harm our strategic
                     nuclear objectives.\" He says the Iranians feel quite
                     safe as long as the West engages them in talks. Talking
                     is one thing and reaching firm agreements that the
                     Iranians will respect is another thing.

                     The source says the Iranians can withstand as much
                     pressure as the West can apply. The  Iranian
                     leadership's assessment is that neither the US nor
                     Israel will attack them, because the repercussions for
                     the US/Israel will be beyond their ability to withstand.
                     He says it would not make much sense for the US to
                     escalate militarily if they are so desperate to downsize
                     their miliarty presence in Iraq. He says Ahmadinejad
                     chose to sound concerned when he told Press TV last week
                     that the US will launch war against two countries in the
                     Middle East. Ahmadinejad wanted to give the impression
                     that he is concerned and that Iran may be willing to
                     make serious concessions. His real aim was to get the US
                     to engage Iran and give it more time until it achieves
                     its nuclear objectives. He says Ahmadinejad is basing
                     his assumptions on the seeming conviction that the West
                     will limit its response to diplomatic and economic
                     sanctions. He says the US may use Israel to send signals
                     to Iran by authorizing the Israelis to hit at Hizbullah
                     in Lebanon. The Iranians are serious about talks but
                     they are not serious about making concessions that can
                     undermine their nuclear abmitions. Iran's decision om
                     this matter is strategic and irreversible.
","2010-08-02 17:08:31",1,"2012-08-05 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1172894_re-discussion-insight-on-iranian-intentions-in-negotiations-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1173190,"RE: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview
","   Yes that is the puzzle.

    

   From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@att.blackberry.net]
   Sent: June-04-10 3:11 PM
   To: Kamran Bokhari; Analysts
   Subject: Re: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   Focus on the fact that this guy said something totally out of keeping not
   only with the akp, but with all turkish opinion as well as the entire
   islamic world plus every woman in england who where sensible shoes.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>

   Date: Fri, 4 Jun 2010 15:08:21 -0400

   To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>; 'Analyst List'<analysts@stratfor.com>

   Subject: RE: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   Have pinged him. Let's see how quickly he responds or even responds to
   this one at all. FG movement has a complex relationship with AKP. There
   are many within AKP who are Gulenites but they don't dominate the party.
   FG has been building itself within the educational and law enforcement
   sectors.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of George Friedman
   Sent: June-04-10 3:05 PM
   To: Analysts
   Subject: Re: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   Let's keep the cat 2 factual and not draw conclusions yet. Let's see what
   kamran gets. We need to gage how this will impact the turkish government.

   I know that I was steered away from zaman to sabah by him. I think there
   may be a split opening.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>

   Date: Fri, 4 Jun 2010 14:02:21 -0500 (CDT)

   To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>

   Subject: Re: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   im on it

    

    

   On Jun 4, 2010, at 2:01 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

    

   Sounds like a way for AKP to move to a safe distance as well. Let us a do
   a CAT 2 on this.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
   Sent: June-04-10 2:57 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   NOte that he's very noticeably distancing his movment from the IHH

    

    

   On Jun 4, 2010, at 1:51 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

   This should be repped.  

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On
   Behalf Of Bayless Parsley
   Sent: June-04-10 2:50 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: TURKEY/ISRAEL - Gulen criticizes flotilla in WSJ interview

    

   Reclusive Turkish Imam Criticizes Gaza Flotilla
   http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704025304575284721280274694.html#printMode

   6/4/10

   By JOE LAURIA

   SAYLORSBURG, Pa.-Imam Fethullah Gu:len, a controversial and reclusive U.S.
   resident who is considered Turkey's most influential religious leader,
   criticized a Turkish-led flotilla for trying to deliver aid without
   Israel's consent.

   Speaking in his first interview with a U.S. news organization, Mr. Gu:len
   spoke of watching news coverage of Monday's deadly confrontation between
   Israeli commandos and Turkish aid group members as its flotilla approached
   Israel's sea blockade of Gaza. \"What I saw was not pretty,\" he said. \"It
   was ugly.\"

   Mr. Gu:len said organizers' failure to seek accord with Israel before
   attempting to deliver aid \"is a sign of defying authority, and will not
   lead to fruitful matters.\"

   Mr. Gu:len's views and influence within Turkey are under growing scrutiny
   now, as factions within the country battle to remold a democracy that is a
   key U.S. ally in the Middle East. The struggle, as many observers
   characterize it, pits the country's old-guard secularist and military
   establishment against Islamist-leaning government workers and ruling
   politicians who say they seek a more democratic and religiously tolerant
   Turkey. Mr. Gu:len inspires a swath of the latter camp, though the extent
   of his reach remains hotly disputed.

   His words of restraint come as many in Turkey gave flotilla members a
   hero's welcome after two days of detention in Israel. Prime Minister Recep
   Tayyip Erdogan of the ruling Justice and Development Party condemned
   Israel's moves as \"bullying\" and a \"historic mistake.\"

   Mr. Gu:len said he had only recently heard of IHH, the Istanbul-based
   Islamic charity active in more than 100 countries that was a lead flotilla
   organizer. \"It is not easy to say if they are politicized or not,\" he
   said. He said that when a charity organization linked with his movement
   wanted to help Gazans, he insisted they get Israel's permission. He added
   that assigning blame in the matter is best left to the United Nations.

   Mr. Gu:len has long cut a baffling figure, as critics and adherents have
   sparred over the nature of his influence in Turkey and the extent of his
   reach. Leading a visitor on Wednesday past his front corridor-adorned with
   a map of Turkey, a verse from the Quran and a photograph of a Turkish F-16
   jet over the Bosphorus-he portrayed himself an apolitical teacher. \"I do
   not consider myself someone who has followers,\" he said.
   More

       * Opinion: Turkey's Radical Drift
       * New Aid Ship Heads to Gaza
       * Israel Explores Easing Its Blockade of Gaza
       * Turkish Group Sees Victory in Martyrdom
       * Israel's Isolation Deepens
       * In Israel and Abroad, Raid Spurs Criticism of Military's Judgment
       * Aboard Marmara, Skirmish Turns Deadly
       * Complete Coverage: WSJ.com/Mideast 

   Born in eastern Turkey in 1941, Mr. Gu:len became a state-licensed imam at
   17, after three years of formal education and studies with Sufi masters.
   In a Turkey largely under the sway of a military-secularist establishment,
   he built a national organization of Islamic study and boarding halls,
   gaining support of many wealthy Muslims but at times running afoul of the
   law.

   While in the U.S. in 1999 for medical treatment, he was charged in Turkey
   with attempting to create an Islamic state- anathema under Turkey's
   secularist constitution. He stayed in Pennsylvania, where he now lives on
   a 25-acre estate in the Pocono Mountains. Over the years, he said, he has
   left the estate twice.

   Mr. Gu:len preaches nonviolence, dialogue between Western and Muslim
   worlds, and an educational tradition that combines study of science and
   Islam. His newspaper columns, weekly Internet sermons and other messages
   have been collected into more than 60 books. His adherents number, by
   various estimates, three million to eight million.

   Followers have established hundreds of schools in more than 100 countries
   and run an insurance company and an Islamic bank, Asya, that its 2008
   annual report said had $5.2 billion in assets. They own Turkey's largest
   daily newspaper, Zaman; the magazine Aktion; a wire service; publishing
   companies; a radio station and the television network STV, according to
   Helen Rose Ebaugh, a University of Houston sociologist and author of \"The
   Gu:len Movement.\" She says followers donate up to one-third of their
   income to independent Gu:len-linked foundations.

   Ms. Ebaugh said Mr. Gu:len doesn't sit on the boards of Asha bank nor any
   foundation or editorial boards of Gu:len-sympathetic magazines, newspapers
   or television stations. In the interview, the imam said he had no
   financial interest in any holdings.

   Mr. Gu:len's detractors see him as a cult-like leader whose empire aims to
   train an Islamic elite who will one day rebuild the Turkish state. Soner
   Cagaptay, a Gu:len critic who is a Turkey analyst at the Washington
   Institute for Near East Policy, says the Turkish police force may be
   largely influenced by the imam through Gu:len sympathizers in key
   positions-effectively creating a counterbalance to Turkey's powerful
   military, a secularist bastion.

   \"I am not a leader of a faction or someone who would cause some state
   officials to follow me despite their official duties,\" Mr. Gu:len said in
   the interview.

   The U.S. has \"immense ambivalence\" about Mr. Gu:len, said Graham Fuller,
   an ex-Central Intelligence Agency officer who is a resident consultant at
   the Rand Corp. in British Columbia.

   \"On the one hand they do perceive him as very moderate and doing many
   positive things,\" Mr. Fuller said. But Washington has long thrown its lot
   behind the secularist followers of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, he says, viewing
   them \"as the only narrative to what Turkish politics is all about.\"

   The U.S. State Department declined to comment about Mr. Gu:len for this
   article.

   In 2007, U.S. Homeland Security moved to deny Mr. Gu:len
   permanent-resident status in the U.S., rejecting his claim of exceptional
   ability as an educator. \"The record contains overwhelming evidence that
   plaintiff is primarily the leader of a large and influential religious and
   political movement with immense commercial holdings,\" the government
   wrote.

   Mr. Gu:len won on appeal after getting 29 letters of support, including
   one from Mr. Fuller.

   The imam disputed Homeland Security's characterization. He goes only so
   far as to provide guidance to those who ask, he said.

   The 2002 election of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, opened a
   new era for Mr. Gu:len and those he inspires, given their common foe in
   the military-secularist establishment.

   The AKP says it has no political ties to Mr. Gu:len. The imam says critics
   have linked him, falsely, to Turkey's current and previous leaders. \"I do
   not have and have never had any relationship with a movement that has
   political aspirations,\" he said. \"I am just a Turkish citizen.\"

   Last month, Mr. Gu:len's followers founded the Assembly of Turkic American
   Federations in Washington, a lobbying and umbrella organization for some
   180 local non-profit foundations around the U.S. involved in education and
   culture.

   An English-language Turkish newspaper reported that Mr. Gu:len has told
   his followers they couldn't visit him on his Poconos estate if they didn't
   first donate to their local congressman. Mr. Gulen denies making the
   remark.

   Mr. Gu:len said that for Muslims, benefiting their community is both an
   Islamic and humanitarian duty, and that he would be happy if those who
   respect him support their lawmakers in the name of democracy and
   humanitarianism.

   \"I hear that some people in the United States consider Turkey as sitting
   at the epicenter of radicalism,\" Mr. Gu:len said. The new federation's
   lobbying would aim \"to reflect through sincere, pro-dialog and open-minded
   people the true nature of Turkey's realities.\"

   Write to Joe Lauria at newseditor@wsj.com

    

    
","2010-06-04 21:12:18",1,"2012-03-12 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1173190_re-turkey-israel-gulen-criticizes-flotilla-in-wsj-interview-.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,friedman@att.blackberry.net",""
1176673,"RE: S3* -  MESA/CT/MIL - WikiLeaks posts huge encrypted file to Web
","   Oh, I'm not saying we shouldn't watch it.

    

   We just need to watch it with a jaundiced eye and not automatically buy
   into the hype...

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marc Lanthemann
   Sent: Thursday, August 05, 2010 4:20 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S3* - MESA/CT/MIL - WikiLeaks posts huge encrypted file to
   Web

    

   I agree with your that it's most likely not exciting info. Wikileak's
   become a world recognized brand after the leak and they probably want to
   keep it that way by building up the mystique.

   However, I think it doesn't hurt to keep an eye on this and consider all
   possible scenarios.

   On 8/5/10 3:13 PM, scott stewart wrote:

   I think you may be giving the material more weight than it deserves.  The
   stuff released to date is pretty tame and lame. I can't imagine the last
   15,000 documents being qualitatively much different  if they came from the
   same source.

   Therefore, I think this is more of a publicity stunt than anything.   I
   wonder how much money Assange has raised through this \"ordeal\" of being
   persecuted by the USG?

    

    

    

    

    

    

    

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Marc Lanthemann
   Sent: Thursday, August 05, 2010 4:06 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: S3* - MESA/CT/MIL - WikiLeaks posts huge encrypted file to
   Web

    

   I came up with some more thoughts/points while discussing this with Sean:

     o The general guess is that Insurance contains the remaining 15k Afghan
       docs, but it could either be something more damaging or total bluff.
     o In any case the US govt wouldn't want to risk public dissemination.
       Which means they can't really arrest him, kill him or send him to a
       relaxation spa in Cuba or Poland.
     o Therefore Assange's life/liberty is somewhat important for US national
       security.
     o Pushing this reasoning forward, killing Assange would be detrimental
       for the US.
     o I don't know who would benefit from further leaks and political
       shitstorms in the US, but that person/government may have it in them
       to cap Assange.
     o The US needs to make sure nobody gets to him.
     o All in all, not a particularly brilliant self-preservation move from
       Assange.

   On 8/5/10 2:25 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

   FYI, talked to some of my CS/hacker-savvy friends. The file is encrypted
   using a 256 bit AES encryption, which is what the US government uses for
   classified documentation. There are no known weaknesses to this encryption
   and it would take longer than the lifetime of the sun to brute-force the
   code using all the supercomputers currently in existence. You'd need a
   super secret quantum computer or the biggest breakthrough in
   cryptoanalysis ever.

   Bottom line we'll only get access to the files when Wikileaks feels like
   releasing the password. This has been making lots of waves in the
   hacker/nerd community, and I spent some time browsing hacker forums for
   ideas. Serious people (as serious as webforum hackers can be) are talking
   about a sort of dead man trigger, password must be entered by Assange
   every X hours/days or the password is released.

   In any case, NSA is going to get a headache over this. It might even be a
   bluff and turn out to be Assange's randomly encrypted copy of Bambi.

   On 8/5/10 1:31 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

   no idea what is really on

   WikiLeaks posts huge encrypted file to Web
   The Associated Press
   Thursday, August 5, 2010; 1:30 PM

   http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/05/AR2010080504526.html

   LONDON -- Online whistle-blower WikiLeaks has posted a huge encrypted file
   named \"Insurance\" to its website, sparking speculation that those behind
   the organization may be prepared to release more classified information if
   authorities interfere with them.

   Bloggers have noted that it's 20 times larger than the batch of 77,000
   secret U.S. military documents about Afghanistan that WikiLeaks dumped
   onto the Web last month. Contributors to tech sites such as CNet have
   speculated that the file could be a way of threatening to disclose more
   information if WikiLeaks' staffers were detained or if the site was
   attacked, although the organization itself has kept mum.

   \"As a matter of policy, we do not discuss security procedures,\" WikiLeaks
   said Thursday in an e-mail response to questions about the 1.4 gigabyte
   file.

   Editor-in-chief Julian Assange was a bit more expansive - if equally
   cryptic - in his response to the same line of questioning in a television
   interview with independent U.S. news network Democracy Now!

   \"I think it's better that we don't comment on that,\" Assange said,
   according to the network's transcript of the interview. \"But, you know,
   one could imagine in a similar situation that it might be worth ensuring
   that important parts of history do not disappear.\"

   Assange, a former computer hacker, has expressed concern over his safety
   in the past, complaining of surveillance and telling interviewers that
   he's been warned away from visiting the United States.

   Since the publication of the Afghanistan files, at least one activist
   associated with the site has been questioned by U.S. authorities.
   Programmer Jacob Appelbaum, who filled in for Assange at a conference last
   month, was reportedly detained and questioned about the site by officials
   after arriving in the U.S. on a flight from the Netherlands.
   ad_icon

   U.S. officials have had harsh words for Assange, with Adm. Michael Mullen,
   chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, saying he and his colleagues had
   disclosed potentially life-threatening information and might already have
   blood on their hands.

   U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has refused to rule out the
   possibility that Assange could be a target into the military's
   investigation into the leak.

   ---

 --

 Michael Wilson

 Watch Officer, STRAFOR

 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

  

  

 --

 Michael Wilson

 Watch Officer, STRAFOR

 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

  

  

 --

 Marc Lanthemann

 Research Intern

 Mobile: +1 609-865-5782

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Marc Lanthemann

 Research Intern

 Mobile: +1 609-865-5782

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Marc Lanthemann

 Research Intern

 Mobile: +1 609-865-5782

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com
","2010-08-05 22:28:10",1,"2012-02-29 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1176673_re-s3-mesa-ct-mil-wikileaks-posts-huge-encrypted-file-to-web.html","scott.stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1177721,"Re: USE ME: B3 - ECON/GREECE - Governmental situation is evolving
","   Lots of talk that a cabinet reshuffle is coming... might mean that Papa-C
   is out (the finance minister). If Papa-D stays, however, then it is a
   really lame concession.

   On 6/15/11 10:35 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     needs to include the line at the bottom about potential elections

     On 6/15/11 10:26 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

       combine all the way to the bottom with the parts from STRATFOR sources

       PM and ND leader discuss all-party government, sources claim
           15 Jun 2011 (google says about 26 mins ago)
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43171
       Prime Minister George Papandreou held talks with main opposition New
       Democracy leader Antonis Samaras on the telephone on Wednesday, after
       a round of telephone calls with the leaders of the other political
       parties in Parliament. Their conversation lasted roughly 20 minutes.
        
       While an earlier official announcement by ND had refused to disclose
       the content of their talks before Papandreou had expressed his
       position, unnamed sources within the party [the ND] said that the
       prime minister had described the situation as extremely difficult and
       that he was prepared to consider either an all-party government or a
       broader alliance government.
        
       The same sources said that Samaras did not reject the proposal but
       made it clear that this could not work with Papandreou as prime
       minister. To this, always according to ND sources, Papandreou
       apparently replied that he was not concerned about whether he was
       prime minister.
        
       Other sources within the party announced that there would be a second
       telephone communication between the two men later on Wednesday
       afternoon.
        
       Samaras has apparently made it a condition that there is a substantial
       renegotiation of the terms of the Memorandum for the loans to Greece,
       in order to agree to an all-party government.
        
       The ND leader, who has been in continuous contact with his closest
       aides since the morning, is expected to head to his party's
       headquarters in a short while. (ANA)

       PM talks with Samaras on the phone
           15 Jun 2011 (google says about 1 hour ago)
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43169

       Prime Minister George Papandreou held talks with main opposition New
       Democracy leader Antonis Samaras on the telephone on Wednesday, after
       a round of telephone calls with the leaders of the other political
       parties in Parliament.
        
       Their conversation lasted roughly 20 minutes and ND refused to reveal
       any information concerning their talks before the prime minister
       addresses the public.
        
       Samaras, who has been in continuous contact with his closest aides
       since the morning, was expected to head to his party's headquarters
       after the conversation with Papandreou. (ANA)

       Tsipras calls for immediate elections in phone call with PM
           15 Jun 2011 (google says about 2 hours ago)
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43163

       Coalition of the Radical Left (Syriza parliamentary alliance)
       parliamentary group leader Alexis Tsipras on Wednesday called for
       immediate general elections as the only way out for the country,
       during a telephone discussion with Prime Minister George Papandreou,
       according to party sources.
        
       Papandreou called Tsipras after an extraordinary meeting with
       President of the Republic Karolos Papoulias earlier in the day, in the
       context of a round of phone calls to all political party leaders.
        
       Sources said Papandreou reiterated his government's and his own
       personal determination that the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy Framework
       programme will be passed by parliament, to which Tsipras replied that
       Syriza remained firm in its stance that the Memorandum and the
       Medium-Term programme are catastrophic for the country, and that the
       only way out, and to the benefit of stability in Greece, is immediate
       recourse to general elections.
        
       The same sources said that neither a new meeting of the Council of
       Political Party Leaders nor a one-on-one meeting with Papandreou were
       put forward during the phone discussion.
        
       Tsipras will make statements immediately after the prime minister's
       address to the nation later on Wednesday. (ANA)

       PM meets with President, rumours abound
           by (AthensNewsWeb)             15 Jun 2011 (google says about 3
       hours ago)
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43133
       Prime Minister George Papandreou met with the President of the
       Republic Karolos Papoulias, on Wednesday noon, stating that this is a
       \"historic moment\", while Greek journalists cancelled their 24-hour
       nationwide strike, as rumours abound about the possibility of a
       coalition government or snap elections.
        
       According to government sources, the prime minister will continue on
       Wednesday his round of telephone contacts with the political party
       leaders after his extraordinary meeting with Karolos Papoulias, adding
       that Papandreou had spoken only with Communist Party of Greece (KKE)
       leader Aleka Papariga and Democratic Left leader Fotis Kouvelis before
       the meeting.
        
       This clarification comes as earlier on Wednesday, a statement by
       Papandreou before the meeting with Papoulias that he was in contact
       with the party leaders to seek consensus sparked denials of such
       telephone contacts by ND and Syriza.

        
       Papandreou, the sources continued, would make an address to the people
       later on Wednesday. The government sources left open all prospects,
       but for the time being ruled out snap elections.
        
       Earlier, Pasok MP Ntinos Vrettos asked for the government to resign so
       that a new one would be formed of publicly acclaimed experts and
       politicians.
        
       On Tuesday, Florina MP Giorgos Lianis tendered his resignation as a
       member of Pasok's central committee. Lianis is keeping his parliament
       seat and will continue to serve as an independent, leaving the ruling
       Pasok party with 155 MPs.
        
       In his resignation letter addressed to the Speaker of the Parliament
       and to Prime Minister George Papandreou, Lianis stressed that he does
       not believe anymore in the government's economic policy and that \"we
       [the government] have failed and we are forced to hide the truth from
       the people\".
        
       Lianis, who started his career as a journalist, was first elected to
       parliament on Pasok's ticket in 1989 and he has served as deputy
       culture minister from 1993 to 1996.
        
       Earlier on Tuesday, Pasok MP for Kozani Alekos Athanasiadis in a radio
       interview said that he would vote against the medium-term programme.
        
       \"I will not vote for the medium-term programme and I assume my
       responsibilities,\" Athanasiadis said.
        
       The government on Thursday tabled in parliament a medium-term fiscal
       strategy framework for the economy envisaging a new round of severe
       austerity measures designed to bring in overall revenues of 28.259
       billion euros by 2015, as well as a 50 billion euros privatisation
       programme. The programme is scheduled to be put to vote in the
       300-member chamber on June 28.

       ND denies reports of Samaras meeting with PM aide
           15 Jun 2011 (google says about 5 hours ago)
       http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/43150
       Main opposition New Democracy categorically denied on Wednesday
       rumours appearing on several blogs and websites of a meeting on
       Tuesday between ND leader Antonis Samaras and a representative of
       Prime Minister George Papandreou.
        
       In a statement, ND press officer Yiannis Michelakis called the rumours
       \"absurd\" and unworthy of denial.
        
       ND further denied any telephone contact whatsoever between Samaras and
       Papandreou. (ANA)

       On 06/15/2011 03:53 PM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

         STRATFOR sources in Greece:

         Papandreou is in contact with other political leaders for some kind
         of broader consensus, maybe even some form of coalition government. 
         Tthe elections scenario is also at the forefront if no consensus is
         reached.
         A PASOK MP Mr Dinos Vrettos, asked today for a total reshuffling of
         the government, putting well known personalities from a broader
         spectrum in the new government.

         Papandreou in talks with Samaras about a coalition governement. They
         are looking at the possibility of a  \"national salvation\" government
         without Papandreou as  a prime minister. A prerogative of such a
         governement will probably be a renegotiation of the austerity
         measures. There being no time for bargaining now, first they would
         pass the measures through parliament and then try to renegotiate
         some of the measures (taxes mostly).

         --
         Marko Papic

         STRATFOR Analyst
         C: + 1-512-905-3091
         marko.papic@stratfor.com

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic
","2011-06-15 18:11:44",1,"2011-03-05 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1177721_re-use-me-b3-econ-greece-governmental-situation-is-evolving-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","watchofficer@stratfor.com",""
1180377,"Re: DISCUSSION - Insight on Iranian intentions in negotiations
","   Question: when we talk about our continued desire to get out of Iraq, do
   we actually intend (at least publicly/legally) to fully withdraw these
   final 50,000 troops, ever? Or if not \"ever,\" in the next five-10 years?
   Not familiar with what the SOFA mandates must be done once our combat
   troops are all out. And obviously the answer would have a huge effect on
   these negotiations.

   Do we really \"need\" to pull them out, or would it not be that huge of a
   strain on our military to maintain troops there, just like we do in
   Europe, Korea, and tons of other places?

   Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     There isn't much time to do anything with the remaining troops. They are
     leaving one way or another. Iran knows that. Also, the only situation
     that I can see upsetting the drawdown schedule is massive violence
     combined with the various factions rapidly hurling into a direction
     opposite to that of a power-sharing formula. The talks are not going
     anywhere but no sign that these guys are about to say fuck it. Also,
     note that July was the deadliest month in terms of attacks since 2008.
     But U.S. forces continue to drawdown and ahead of schedule. Iran is also
     not interested in creating problems right now because it doesn't have
     the Shia house in order with al-Maliki feuding with al-Hakim/al-Sadr.

     The key issue is therefore the 50k troops that will be left behind. Even
     then the Iranians don't have to do anything necessarily. Just play
     around with U.S. perceptions. They know that DC needs to pull them out
     but can't. Not without creating a vacuum that Tehran would exploit. So,
     they say we can let you go with assurances if you give us what we want,
     which is regime security, lifting of sanctions, and recognition of IRI's
     regional role. Hence the bit about holding them hostage. That said, do
     note that the al-Sadrites said recently that they will not tolerate any
     long-term American bases in country even in Kurdistan. So Iran has that
     option as well. but really their goal is to play with U.S. perceptions
     to get what they want. They won't need to do much more unless the U.S.
     says the 50K are digging in for the long haul.
     Link: themeData
     Link: colorSchemeMapping

      

      

     On 8/2/2010 10:14 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

       I think it's a bit of both.  The demands outlined here make sense. At
       the same time, iran will want to convey the message that it has the
       upper hand and the US needs to be the one to make the first move.
        This is why I'd like a better understanding of what can Iran actually
       do to the remaining troops in Iraq to upset the withdrawal or hold the
       leftover forces hostage?
       On Aug 2, 2010, at 8:44 AM, Rodger Baker wrote:

         if these are part of backchannel messaging to DC, how do we
         interpret these? as accurate assessments of iran's views, or as the
         position Iran wants people in the US admin and policy positions to
         think is the iranian position?
         On Aug 2, 2010, at 8:20 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

           Please read the two pieces of insight below.  They both come from
           the same source, who (I believe)  has used this communication link
           through S4 in attempt to send messages to the US administration. I
           believe this message below is being transmitted through a number
           of backchannels.
           I think this is important for us to publish in an article so we
           can better define the Iranian position in this stage of the
           negotiations.  It is clear that the Iranian priority is Iraq in
           these nuclear negotiations, which should come as no surprise to
           STRATFOR.  My biggest question is, are the Iranians overestimating
           their leverage over the remaining US troops in Iraq?  Perhaps
           there is an Iranian contingency plan that we haven't fully
           considered?  Overall, the Iranians are not under any great
           pressure to concede anything big right now. It's up to the US to
           answer to their demands in Iraq, and it's unclear to me whether
           the US is really that much of a blocker to what Iran wants to
           achieve in Iraq right now. It's also unclear to what extent Iran
           would cooperate in allowing in inspectors again and in temproarily
           freezing enrichment.  
           PUBLICATION: for analysis
           ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources
           SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Iranian diplomat -- strongly suspected of
           using S4 as backchannel to US admin
           SOURCE  Reliability :  D
           ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3 
           DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
           SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
           Iran has informed the USA through back channels about its
           perspective on resolving the current standoff with regard to the
           Iranian nuclear program. The Iranian package includes the
           following:
           1. Iran wants the US to cease its support to secessionist ethnic
           groups in Iran, namely the Balochs in Balochistan-Sistan and Arabs
           in Khuzistan (Ahwas), in addition to Mujahidin e-Khalq.
           2. Iran will suspend uranium enrichment for a year.
           3. Iran will give international inspectors access to its nuclear
           sites.
           4. Iran will allow US troops to withdraw smoothly from Iraq.
           5. The US gives Iran a free hand in Iraq and allows it to form the
           cabinet of its choice.

           The source believes Iran has the upper hand over the US, because
           the Obama administration's main concern is to ensure a peaceful
           and disruption free withdrawal from Iraq. Iran can make this
           happen, otherwise it can easily transform US troops there into
           hostages. The Iranians strongly feel that the fate of US troops in
           Iraq lies within their hands. s Iran has the capacity to make or
           unmake president Obama.

           The Iranians have told the Americans that they will not go for
           Allawi's prime ministership. They very much prefer the weak
           character of Nuri al-Maliki, whom they can easily use to achieve
           their goals in Iraq.  Iran is quite hopeful that al-Maliki will
           become next prime minister because Ayatollah Ali Sistani has
           quietly endorsed his candidacy. He says the reappointment of
           Maliki will neutralize the aspirations in Iraq of Syria, Turkey
           and Saudi Arabia. Iran will not compromise on Iraq. It will delay
           its nuclear program but it will not abandon it and they have made
           this matter absolutely clear to the Americans. He thinks Iran will
           prevail.

             On 7/30/2010 9:59 AM, Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

               PUBLICATION: analysis
               ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources
               SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Iranian diplomat
               SOURCE  Reliability :  D
               ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
               DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
               SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
               ** This supports my earlier assumption that Iran still feels
               like it has enough leverage in other places to avoid making
               any real concessions in this next round of talks.
               There is nothing the Iranians like more than discussing their
               nuclear program.  Iran is keenly interested in negotiating its
               nuclear options. He adds that \"we are only interested in the
               process of negotiation and do not intend to make concessions
               that may harm our strategic nuclear objectives.\" He says the
               Iranians feel quite safe as long as the West engages them in
               talks. Talking is one thing and reaching firm agreements that
               the Iranians will respect is another thing.

               The source says the Iranians can withstand as much pressure as
               the West can apply. The  Iranian leadership's assessment is
               that neither the US nor Israel will attack them, because the
               repercussions for the US/Israel will be beyond their ability
               to withstand. He says it would not make much sense for the US
               to escalate militarily if they are so desperate to downsize
               their miliarty presence in Iraq. He says Ahmadinejad chose to
               sound concerned when he told Press TV last week that the US
               will launch war against two countries in the Middle East.
               Ahmadinejad wanted to give the impression that he is concerned
               and that Iran may be willing to make serious concessions. His
               real aim was to get the US to engage Iran and give it more
               time until it achieves its nuclear objectives. He says
               Ahmadinejad is basing his assumptions on the seeming
               conviction that the West will limit its response to diplomatic
               and economic sanctions. He says the US may use Israel to send
               signals to Iran by authorizing the Israelis to hit at
               Hizbullah in Lebanon. The Iranians are serious about talks but
               they are not serious about making concessions that can
               undermine their nuclear abmitions. Iran's decision om this
               matter is strategic and irreversible.
","2010-08-02 16:40:08",1,"2012-08-05 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1180377_re-discussion-insight-on-iranian-intentions-in-negotiations-.html","bayless.parsley@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1180386,"Re: BP Oil Spill
","   Dear Sir,

   While we referred to the incident as \"a disaster on the BP- and
   Transocean-operated Deepwater Horizon oilrig April 20,\" we frequently
   referred directly to BP because it is taking lead in the emergency
   response and attempts to plug the leak. The blow-out-preventer that failed
   was built by Cameron, and the cementing that had recently been completed
   was done by Halliburton. The investigation will doubtless cast light on a
   number of service providers, and by the time the incident is over, every
   company remotely involved will have its practices affected in some way.

   I hope this clarifies our references to BP. Thank you for reading and
   writing in.

   Best from Austin,

   Matt Gertken

   Analyst
   STRATFOR


 markstan sent a message using the contact form at 
 https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

 I have noticed in the US that BP is continually mentioned as being 
 responsible and whilst they have not tried to get off the hook, I would have

 expected that Stratfor would have included that Transnational operated the 
 rig on behalf of BP and are in reality the ones responsible for the clean
 up, 
 now I suspect that transnational's pockets are in no way big enough to cover

 the costs in question. But I believe you should have included it in your 
 article.



  
","2010-05-07 15:47:11",1,"2012-03-01 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1180386_re-bp-oil-spill-.html","matt.gertken@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","mark@stanhope.org.uk",""
1180729,"Re: INSIGHT- PKK/ Ocalan
","   pls ask how the power dynamic works between Ocalan and Karayalin...
   especially when it comes to the wishes of the more radical European
   factions. Who has more clout when it comes to actual military operations.
    Not disputing that Ocalan is still the spiritual leader of PKK.
   what is AKP offering PKK in return for keeping the ceasefire through the
   referendum? how long does PKK plan to maintain the ceasefire?
   On Aug 18, 2010, at 1:18 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     CODE: N/A
     PUBLICATION: N/A
     ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor source in Iraqi-Kurdistan
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Kurdish journalist well connected with PKK and
     Kurdish officials. Some times he spends afew nights in Qandil with PKK
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
     DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
     HANDLER: Yerevan

     The source says it's a strategic mistake for anyone or government to
     think that Ocalan has lost it's clout over the PKK. He says Ocalan is
     not just a leader but is a spiritual one who has been able to hold the
     Pkk together for years despite being in Prrsion. He added that Ocalan is
     just like Sheikh Ahmed Yassin of Hamas, despite being in prison, still
     he was the leader and his directives were considered.

     He also said all rhe developments happening in Turkey now is because of
     Ocalan' strategies  and tactics to make the government move about the
     Kurdish issue. He also claimed that if Ocalan had died, then pkk had
     long been collapsed from in side.

     He said now pkk is following a new stratgy which is sanctioned by Ocalan
     which is the strategy of fighting and then give a temporal cease fire to
     both make government think that they are still there and make them to
     talk to them, which getting international attention.

     He believed that in From October the kurdish issue will see big
     attention in Turkey.

     The source is in Erbil right now, willl come back and talk  in person 
     intensively about this and pkk future plans.

     If you have any specific questions, let me know.

     Sent from my iPhone

     --
     Michael Wilson
     Watch Officer, STRATFOR
     Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
     Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
","2010-08-18 20:25:01",1,"2012-03-15 20:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1180729_re-insight-pkk-ocalan-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1181111,"INSIGHT - GREECE/ECON - Risks Abound for Austerity Vote
","   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE: EL501
   ATTRIBUTION: Greek media sources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Confed partner
   SOURCE  Reliability : A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Marko

   There is a vote for the mid-term plan on the 29th and another vote on the
   application law (of the plan) on the 30th of June.
   Chances are it will pass. There are 2 MPs that are still against it (but
   appear to be less \"adamant\" about it) and some unknown quantities (another
   2-3 I would say) that are \"suspects\".
   But nobody is really certain yet! 
   There is a 2day general strike for the 28th and 29th and there will be
   demosntrations in front of the parliament. This could play a-negative-
   part, if there are too many people, and/or some violence etc.
   Best

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2011-06-27 16:00:17",1,"2011-03-05 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1181111_insight-greece-econ-risks-abound-for-austerity-vote-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","watchofficer@stratfor.com",""
1183539,"Re: INSIGHT - AUSTRALIA - Election - CN65
","   The election is becoming difficult to call, though the sudden and
   extremely rapid rise of the opposition in the past few months doesn't bode
   well for Labor, though its support, as he mentions, was thought to still
   be greater even as little as a month ago. Obviously we aren't going to try
   to call the election. Here is our take on it from Neptune report:

   In the run-up to federal elections Aug 21, Australia's ruling Labor Party
   and Prime Minister Julia Gillard remain ahead of the opposition
   Liberal-National Coalition and its leader Tony Abbott, but the gap has
   narrowed dramatically in the past month. The Labor Party is still reeling
   after ditching its previous leader, Kevin Rudd, watering down its proposal
   to impose a tax on the windfall profits of mining companies and struggling
   to come up with a credible bid to create a regional processing center for
   asylum seekers. The election is not likely to affect the major
   geopolitically relevant trends: Australia will remain financially in a
   better position than most developed economies, it will maintain its
   support for the U.S.-led International Security Assistance Force in
   Afghanistan, and it will continue to benefit economically from China's
   growth while limiting Chinese influence in Australia. However, the
   election will impact the proposed mining super-tax, which could affect the
   country's ability to acquire, or leverage, foreign investment in its
   resources development. Critics say the law, which would not take effect
   until 2012, would drive away foreign investment, while proponents say it
   would help fix the budget deficit and rebalance the economy away from
   foreign investment-driven growth. Abbott has proposed scrapping the
   super-tax altogether while Gillard is sticking to her moderated version.

   Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

     SOURCE: CN65
     ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
     natural resources
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator.  Source is 
     well-connected politically, militarily and economically.  He has become
     a
     private businessman helping foreign companies with M&As
     PUBLICATION: Yes but with no attribution
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
     DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Jen
     Please find herewith some political background analysis from John Black,
     former Labor Party senator for Queensland.
     There are very interesting things happening here, most notably a cabinet
     leak which clearly came from the Rudd camp in the ALP.  Please see this
     article by Lenore Taylor (who is hard left, and therefore not from my
     side).
     http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/politics/gillards-credibility-takes-a-hit-and-theres-not-a-thing-she-can-do-20100728-10w35.html?autostart=1
     You should also listen to the vodcast by Tim Lester on the link.
     There is also a Newspoll out showing that Abbott and Gillard are level
     pegging on approval ratings for the first time.  If correct, this
     presages a swing to the Opposition in about a week or so.  Also,
     Sportsbet announced it had taken $25,000 of bets on the Coalition since
     the weekend, but not a single dollar on Labor!  
     http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-election/gillard-gets-the-wobbles-with-bookies-20100729-10x9f.html
     I really can't pick this campaign at all.  I thought Labor would win,
     but now I'm not sure.
","2010-07-29 15:00:45",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1183539_re-insight-australia-election-cn65-.html","matt.gertken@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1184240,"Re: S3* -  MESA/CT/MIL - WikiLeaks posts huge encrypted file to Web
","   This is a pretty cool tool to come out of the Wikileaks data
   http://ekstrabladet.dk/indsigt/warlogs-1/

   Nate Hughes wrote:

     True, but gotta watch for the ideologies. Not above breaking the law or
     anything like that, but pretty fanatical in their beliefs. This
     wikileaks guy talks a lot about 'justice' and shit like that...

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"scott stewart\" <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>
     Date: Thu, 5 Aug 2010 16:10:08 -0500 (CDT)
     To: 'Analyst List'<analysts@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Subject: RE: S3* - MESA/CT/MIL - WikiLeaks posts huge encrypted file to
     Web

     They try to portray themselves as all idealistic, but by and large, the
     hacker community is pretty mercenary. I can see him selling copies to
     intelligence agencies to make some quick scratch and build his server
     farm....  

      

     The Chinese and Russians don't leak intelligence they vacuum it up.

      

      

      

      

     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Marc Lanthemann
     Sent: Thursday, August 05, 2010 5:01 PM
     To: Analyst List
     Subject: Re: S3* - MESA/CT/MIL - WikiLeaks posts huge encrypted file to
     Web

      

     I don't think that the copies can be purchased. It's the complete
     opposite of wikileaks' mission. They are as a public dissemination
     organization, not a private intelligence agency. Selling information to
     private parties is just unthinkable to those guys, they seek the glory
     of being whistle blowers, not monetary profit. They think of themselves
     as the freedom of press' Robin Hoods, taking info from the rich and
     powerful to give to the poor and ignorant masses.

     If this is, as you said, a media operation, they wouldn't risk the
     Chinese or the Russians leaking that info and taking away their credit.
     Assuming it's similar to the previous leaks, the biggest damage those
     documents can do is by being leaked. It's not like the PRA is going to
     learn anything about out tactics they didn't know already. So China
     would only pay for this document for its potentially destabilizing
     value. This implies some sort of dissemination. If someone is going to
     leak that document it's wikileaks, ergo they won't give/sell it to
     anyone else.

     On 8/5/10 3:43 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     The sources and methods concern is already out the window. This material
     is already out there and I'm certain that anybody who wanted to purchase
     it on the side from Assange could do so.  I'm sure the Chinese and
     Russians already have complete copies, probably even the ISI has bought
     a copy.

      

     Now the issue is really more about damage control, and spinning the
     perception of events in the USGs favor.  

      

      

      

     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Sean Noonan
     Sent: Thursday, August 05, 2010 4:36 PM
     To: Analyst List
     Subject: Re: S3* - MESA/CT/MIL - WikiLeaks posts huge encrypted file to
     Web

      

     I'm not sure what you're saying here--- if you mean that Assange wants
     this to appear like a Keanue Reeves movie you are right on.  In terms of
     the US concerns, i'm pretty confident in my analysis.  There's no crazy
     conspiracy here, but the US is going to do what it can to limit and
     protect that information.  The key is protecting sources and methods. 
     While there was nothing crazy in the last file dump, it still outed
     both. I'm not saying the US is going to do any major covert operation or
     whatever to get Assange nor that they are going to be intimidated by
     this 'insurance' file.  They're going to quickly rethink how they are
     going to get him, but they're not going to be scared by this.  They
     might be more motivated to negotiate in some way. 

     Marko Papic wrote:

     I will say one thing... if you submitted this as a script to Hollywood,
     they'd say it is too ludicrous.

     Unless it was the 1990s... in which case they would cast Keanu Reeves
     as  Assange

     Sean Noonan wrote:

     I think it is actually the smartest move he could make.  The US wants
     him....pretty badly.  So, he can assume he will be pursued for arrest,
     maybe even rendition (I doubt that, and definitely doubt any
     assassination BS) wherever he goes.  Putting this file up there makes
     the US think twice about arresting him.  And Marc, you are right that
     now the US can be concerned about his well-being, especially if they
     have been given clues abou what's in the file and really don't want it
     out.  Looking at the information in the last leak, none of it was of any
     serious value (except in endangering US operatives).  Let's assume this
     is more valuable, but it's still hard to believe it is that valuable. 
     Wikileaks wants the public to think these are crazy revelations coming
     out.  For example, everything in those files people could've learned
     from reading STRATFOR, but now that it has the hype of being
     'classified' and 'leaked' more people are paying attention. 

     Even if the information is valuable enough to the US to really try to
     protect, I highly doubt whatever information this might have will be so
     damaging to the US that any foreign group or country would find it
     valuable enough to assassinate Assange.  Would any foreign intelligence
     agency or militant group dealing with the US want it leaked?  Yes,
     definitely, but it is not of such value to them to accept the risk to
     force the information out there.  At best a foreign country would offer
     him some sort of protected asylum in return for access (but would he
     accept that?  not on his ideology).

     So now the US has to figure out how to get its hand on this file, any
     other information Assange might have while having enough information for
     a prosecution and preventing the 'insurance' from being 'collected.' 
     This gives him a delay in which he can move around, maybe better protect
     himself and at worst work out a deal with the US. If the US really was
     so concerned about, he would already be in custody.  It would have to be
     truly disastrous information, and I highly doubt it is. 

     He's making a smart media ploy, and creating enough of a distraction
     that it's probably better for his personal security.  The larger his
     profile, the harder it is for US security services to arrest,
     interrogate and neutralize (I don't mean kill) him. 

     Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     I came up with some more thoughts/points while discussing this with
     Sean:

       o The general guess is that Insurance contains the remaining 15k
         Afghan docs, but it could either be something more damaging or total
         bluff.
       o In any case the US govt wouldn't want to risk public dissemination.
         Which means they can't really arrest him, kill him or send him to a
         relaxation spa in Cuba or Poland.
       o Therefore Assange's life/liberty is somewhat important for US
         national security.
       o Pushing this reasoning forward, killing Assange would be detrimental
         for the US.
       o I don't know who would benefit from further leaks and political
         shitstorms in the US, but that person/government may have it in them
         to cap Assange.
       o The US needs to make sure nobody gets to him.
       o All in all, not a particularly brilliant self-preservation move from
         Assange.

     On 8/5/10 2:25 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     FYI, talked to some of my CS/hacker-savvy friends. The file is encrypted
     using a 256 bit AES encryption, which is what the US government uses for
     classified documentation. There are no known weaknesses to this
     encryption and it would take longer than the lifetime of the sun to
     brute-force the code using all the supercomputers currently in
     existence. You'd need a super secret quantum computer or the biggest
     breakthrough in cryptoanalysis ever.

     Bottom line we'll only get access to the files when Wikileaks feels like
     releasing the password. This has been making lots of waves in the
     hacker/nerd community, and I spent some time browsing hacker forums for
     ideas. Serious people (as serious as webforum hackers can be) are
     talking about a sort of dead man trigger, password must be entered by
     Assange every X hours/days or the password is released.

     In any case, NSA is going to get a headache over this. It might even be
     a bluff and turn out to be Assange's randomly encrypted copy of Bambi.

     On 8/5/10 1:31 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     no idea what is really on

     WikiLeaks posts huge encrypted file to Web
     The Associated Press
     Thursday, August 5, 2010; 1:30 PM

     http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/05/AR2010080504526.html

     LONDON -- Online whistle-blower WikiLeaks has posted a huge encrypted
     file named \"Insurance\" to its website, sparking speculation that those
     behind the organization may be prepared to release more classified
     information if authorities interfere with them.

     Bloggers have noted that it's 20 times larger than the batch of 77,000
     secret U.S. military documents about Afghanistan that WikiLeaks dumped
     onto the Web last month. Contributors to tech sites such as CNet have
     speculated that the file could be a way of threatening to disclose more
     information if WikiLeaks' staffers were detained or if the site was
     attacked, although the organization itself has kept mum.

     \"As a matter of policy, we do not discuss security procedures,\"
     WikiLeaks said Thursday in an e-mail response to questions about the 1.4
     gigabyte file.

     Editor-in-chief Julian Assange was a bit more expansive - if equally
     cryptic - in his response to the same line of questioning in a
     television interview with independent U.S. news network Democracy Now!

     \"I think it's better that we don't comment on that,\" Assange said,
     according to the network's transcript of the interview. \"But, you know,
     one could imagine in a similar situation that it might be worth ensuring
     that important parts of history do not disappear.\"

     Assange, a former computer hacker, has expressed concern over his safety
     in the past, complaining of surveillance and telling interviewers that
     he's been warned away from visiting the United States.

     Since the publication of the Afghanistan files, at least one activist
     associated with the site has been questioned by U.S. authorities.
     Programmer Jacob Appelbaum, who filled in for Assange at a conference
     last month, was reportedly detained and questioned about the site by
     officials after arriving in the U.S. on a flight from the Netherlands.
     ad_icon

     U.S. officials have had harsh words for Assange, with Adm. Michael
     Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, saying he and his
     colleagues had disclosed potentially life-threatening information and
     might already have blood on their hands.

     U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has refused to rule out the
     possibility that Assange could be a target into the military's
     investigation into the leak.

     ---

 --

 Michael Wilson

 Watch Officer, STRAFOR

 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

  

  

 --

 Michael Wilson

 Watch Officer, STRAFOR

 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

  

  

 --

 Marc Lanthemann

 Research Intern

 Mobile: +1 609-865-5782

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Marc Lanthemann

 Research Intern

 Mobile: +1 609-865-5782

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

      

     --

     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

     Marko Papic

     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

     STRATFOR

     700 Lavaca Street - 900

     Austin, Texas

     78701 USA

     P: + 1-512-744-4094

     marko.papic@stratfor.com

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --

 Marc Lanthemann

 Research Intern

 Mobile: +1 609-865-5782

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com
","2010-08-06 15:47:53",1,"2012-02-29 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1184240_re-s3-mesa-ct-mil-wikileaks-posts-huge-encrypted-file-to-web.html","benjamin.preisler@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,nathan.hughes@stratfor.com",""
1187951,"Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Ankara's pov on DC reviewing its net	assessment
	on Turkey - TR1
","   Of course but note the following comments, which are telling:

   yes, it was a tough conversation because both issues, the iran vote and
   the gaza attack, were very recent and hot.
   needless to say, this brings many advantages and challenges. i think the
   state dpt meeting on turkey was held within this context.

   The last line is an acknowledgment that DC is in the process of reviewing
   its Turkey net assessment.

   On 8/18/2010 9:50 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

     the PR guy likes to show everything under control. Having trouble with
     the US the last thing that AKP wants right now. They are already
     disappointed with the lack of US backing following the flotilla crisis.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Antonia Colibasanu\" <colibasanu@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2010 4:21:06 PM
     Subject: INSIGHT - TURKEY - Ankara's pov on DC reviewing its net
     assessment        on Turkey - TR1

 CODE: TR1
 PUBLICATION: Not Applicable
 DESCRIPTION: Chief foreign affairs adviser to Erdogan
 ATTRIBUTION: Not Applicable
 SOURCE RELIABILITY:  A
 ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
 SPECIAL HANDLING: Not Applicable
 DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
 HANDLER: Kamran

     the ultimatum report is simply bogus. there was no such thing. whoever
     that us official who spoke (i have my guess!) to the ft is simply
     misconstruing the facts. yes, it was a tough conversation because both
     issues, the iran vote and the gaza attack, were very recent and hot.
     right now, things have considerably calmed down.
     obama called pm erdogan last week to speak about the government in iraq
     and the us plans for withdrawal. americans are happy that the iranians
     have sent a letter to the vienna group to resume talks after eid. they
     are very happy about our efforts in afghanistan. and so on.
     the flotilla attack and turkish-israeli relations remain contentious
     though the panel of inquiry has been formed but now the israelis want to
     interpret it in a different way, i.e., underestimate and reduce its
     mandate, significance, etc.
     in all of this, the us, like many others, see turkey as a stronger
     player than in the past. needless to say, this brings many advantages
     and challenges.
     i think the state dpt meeting on turkey was held within this context.

     --
     --
     Emre Dogru
     STRATFOR  
     Cell: +90.532.465.7514
     Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
     emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
     www.stratfor.com
","2010-08-18 15:58:47",1,"2012-03-16 21:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1187951_re-insight-turkey-ankara-s-pov-on-dc-reviewing-its-net.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1188949,"Info - Comrade J 
","From FBI Hqs (not for attribution)


J had high blood pressure.

-------- Original Message --------


Easy to crank that one up and get it to pop
","2010-07-09 20:28:20",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1188949_info-comrade-j-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
1190145,"Re: Comrade J (CJ)
","   911 call was at 7:08pm, why did they report that he died in the morning?

   Fred Burton wrote:

 According to JJ Green at WTOP (pls protect the sourcing) CJ had high
 cholesterol, high blood pressure and suffered from seasonal allergies
 (pollen).  He had lost weight, but his entertainment patio looked like a
 Georgetown bar.  Green said CJ drank wine at lunch, but did not appear
 to be a heavy drinker in his company.  The wife will continue to provide
 exclusive interviews with Green, which has pissed off Pete Earley the
 author of the book.  If we have any questions for the wife, pls let me
 know.  Thanks



  

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2010-07-14 20:47:15",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1190145_re-comrade-j-cj-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,tactical@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
1190693,"Info - Netanyahu  ** pls look at note 
","Netanyahu told a US Congressman friend in a 1x1 conversation that he
will not allow Iran to go nuclear \"on his watch in Israel's back-yard\"
and he intends to use every means at his disposal to see that doesn't
happen \"Mossad, bunker busting bombs, whatever it takes\", if need be.

Netanyahu also said in a sigh of frustration to the Congressman that he
doesn't think Obama understands the threat (\"rose colored glasses\" was
the exact phrase used.)

** Note -- This was a private conversation between me and Congressman,
so I would appreciate that the matter not be forwarded.  Thanks
","2010-05-14 21:37:14",1,"2012-03-06 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1190693_info-netanyahu-pls-look-at-note-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
1192707,"Re: MORE Re: INSIGHT - AUSTRALIA - Independents split - CN65
","   I thought the original Singtel Optus-Huawei bid was killed in 2009.=C2=A0
   ASIO (Aussie intelligence) was investigating Huawei at the time.=C2=A0 Is
   there a new bid?=C2=A0 (forgive me if I missed the discussion).=C2=A0

   Also, this has been Huawei's new strategy since a bunch of their bids got
   killed in the 2000s.=C2=A0 They partner with major local telecoms
   companies--like they're trying to do with Motorola in the US now.=C2=A0
   Lena Bell wrote:

     Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       The issue is that China's Huawei is bidding to do part of the NBN, and
       the Labour government is \"turning a blind eye\" to it, according to
       source.=C2=A0 Source says, \"They just refuse to believe what they've
       been told by the guys who know. The whole scheme is flawed. They're
       going to spend A$43 billion on this for a population of 22 million.
       That means almost A$2,000 per person. This just can't be made to work
       at anything like affordable costs to the consumer. That might be
       driving them into the arms of Huawei.\"

       On 9/7/2010 11:19 AM, Matt Gertken wrote:

         Chris and I were just discussing this. the plan is a national funded
         and controlled fiber optic broadband network. The security issue has
         not received nearly as much debate or discussion as the political
         debates about cost and competitiveness, even though it was
         frequently referred to during the China-Google debates. The
         criticism by some activists has been that Oz will have complete
         control over information. The complaint by national security types
         has been that a foreign sponsored hacker (such as China) would
         access a gold mine by breaking into this network, and that it should
         be coupled with a more comprehensive cyber-security plan.

         we need more info about it but here is the Oz House of Reps' latest
         report on cyber crime which was oft-cited in questions relating to
         this: =
         http://www.aph.gov.au/house/committee/coms/cybercrime/report.htm

         essentially the security risk argument is that a centrally
         administered broadband network would be more vulnerable to foreign
         attack.

         Of course will defer to Jen's source on this and would very much
         like to hear more details/specifics (or links to places to find
         them) about the security risks.

         Peter Zeihan wrote:

           how is the NBN a security risk?

           On 9/7/2010 9:44 AM, Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

             = National Broadband Network

 --=20
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com



  

     Hi (new OZ ADP) very interesting comment about security issues...
     definite split in the community about the costs, but a lot of
     Australians see it as a nation building imperative. The cost is high,
     but it's being compared to the railroads infrastructure (how that
     radically changed things), and something that is necessary.

     Matt, don't think Huawei is bidding (?) do you mean investing? (no press
     about this back home)
     Even if they did, the government would be very unlikely to ban
     investment... create too many waves.

     Also, in July Huawei joined forces with RMIT (a uni in Melbourne) to
     create a Next Generation Tech Training Centre (will train 1000 students
     over the next 3 years). Jobs out of this.
     I think it just launched its first Android phone in Oz this week too.

     Interestingly, Chinese-owned operator Asia Netcom used to provide
     services for OZ embassies...

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2010-09-08 20:15:00",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1192707_re-more-re-insight-australia-independents-split-cn65-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1194936,"Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - DC power struggle over AKP, PKK
","   sorry that should say 'if it was not yet made public'
   On Aug 18, 2010, at 8:25 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     let's dig deeper to see if there is something more to it, though. This
     source is quite reliable and i know this is an issue he has a lot of
     access to... this was something he was dealing with directly while in
     Ankara last week.
      We have two competing views a) that Ocalan from prison still exercises
     enormous influence over the group and b) that Ocalan does not carry as
     much influence as before, that MIT learned that the hard way when they
     attempted to quietly negotiate a ceasefire with him months ago, and that
     Karlyan is their main guy that they can deal with, but he faces a lot of
     resistance from more radical factions in Europe.
     we may not have seen PKK ignoring Ocalan's call for ceasefire if it was
     negotiated quietly and if it was made public. Ocalan may have given the
     directive quietly to Karalyan and it was ignored until MIT came to
     Karalyan directly.  Let's be open to the alternative and see what else
     we can get from both Turkish and Kurdish sources to see what the real
     story is.
     On Aug 18, 2010, at 8:19 AM, Yerevan Saeed wrote:

       Have we ever seen any Ocalan's directives or signals to be ignored by
       PKK or Karalyan?   I really dont think so and the PKK is committed
       with any call from Ocalan and his leadership.  I am afraid I dont
       agree with what he says about PKK/Ocalan relationship. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
       To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
       Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2010 4:06:29 PM
       Subject: Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - DC power struggle over AKP, PKK

       i may have gotten the 6 months thing wrong..i know he said several
       months ago though. The point was that they tried to negotiate with him
       several months ago, but PKK led by Karayilan ignored him.
       I disagreed with him at first as well, but he was really adamant about
       this issue and about Karayilan. He had seen some of the internal docs
       on the ceasefire and the govt's concerns over keeping Karayilan alive.
        It's also extremely important for the AKP to ensure that the Kurds
       participate in the referendum. Sounds like they can work with
       Karayilan to make that happen, but let's see
       On Aug 18, 2010, at 3:09 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

         Interesting view on Ocalan's influence over PKK and Karayilan. I do
         not completely agree with his comments, but something to bear in
         mind. I'll check this with my sources. (Also, the bit about
         negotiating ceasefire six months ago sounds inaccurate since there
         was a ceasefire in place by then. Remember, clashes started June 1)
         The thing to watch now is PKK/BDP's decision to boycott referendum.
         Against this decision, Ocalan gave signals to loosen the boycott and
         let the Kurds to go to ballots. PKK/BDP cannot understand what he is
         aiming for. Let's see if they will implement his decision.
         Rest is not new. JITEM part is related to the ethnic clashes in
         Hatay which made the AKP gov extremely nervous, as we wrote in our
         previous piece about a possible ceasefire.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Michael Wilson\" <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
         To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
         Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2010 12:59:55 AM
         Subject: INSIGHT - TURKEY - DC power struggle over AKP, PKK

         PUBLICATION: analysis/background
         ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
         SOURCE DESCRIPTION: AKP's point man in DC
         SOURCE  Reliability :  B 
         ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
         DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
         SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
         There is a huge battle taking place in DC right now between the
         pro-AKP and anti-AKP forces trying to influence the admin.  I had to
         experience it first-hand today in trying to get an answer on a
         question.. turns out this split is pretty bad, with the anti-AKP
         voice having way more influence over the State dept and the
         administration. I've also been noticing in some of these defense
         policy circles discussions on TUrkey that the perception that TUrkey
         is turning extremist under AKP has taken hold. THis is also
         manifesting in the hold-up in Congress over the nomination for the
         new US ambassador to TUrkey. Because this guy is seen as closer to
         AKP as opposed to the secularist establishment, the anti-AKP and
         Israeli lobby are influencing key senators to block the vote (a
         letter from sen. brownback to clinton was leaked yesterday.)
         From conversation with the source --
         Ocalan doesn't carry influence over the PKK like he used to. AKP
         needed to contain the PKK situation before the referendum. THey were
         willing to do anything to make it happen. When they tried to
         negotiate a ceasefire 6 months ago with Ocalan (this was done
         through MIT,) Ocalan's directives to the PKK went completely
         ignored. PKK uses Ocalan when they need him. They will lament his
         treatment in prison and follow his call, etc. to benefit from his
         charisma among the Kurds, but they dont take orders from him as much
         as they did before. THis is especially true of the PKK branches in
         Germany.  The real man in charge is Murat Karayalin in Qandil. Only
         when MIT negotiated with him this time were they able to implement
         the ceasefire. (laughing) Let's just say, we are very concerned
         about Karayalin's health. I have seen some internal document
         expressing concern that the more radical factions in Germany could
         eliminate Karayalin. We need to keep him alive. He is the only one
         who will negotiate with us and who can enforce. We can't afford to
         lose him. 
         The heron videos showing a PKK assault on the Hantepe military
         outpost are very interesting.  (Videos were broadcast by Taraf
         newspaper -- the same newspaper that has printed very detailed
         videos and other evidence that supported the AKP against the
         military in all these Ergenekon/sledgehammer cases. The video shows
         the firefight, with the PKK shooting at the troops with impunity.
         The commander called backup and no one came. 7 soldiers died)  THis
         is being seen as a deep state thing in which the military turned a
         blind eye to the attack and used the casualties to escalate the PKK
         problem and try to create issues for the AKP ahead of the
         referendum. 
         The AKP is asserting its will over the military in very strong ways.
         The military appointments issue was of course a big development.
         Erdogan actually defended Basbug (former army chief of staff) for a
         long time against hte Gulenists. The Gulenists are much more
         anti-military, while AKP realizes a need to control the military,
         but still work with them. However, when evidence came out on
         Operation Cage, which was an op led by Basbug to tarnish AKP and
         Gulen movement, Erdogan dropped him. When deciding the new military
         appointments, Basbug invited Erdogan to the security council
         meeting. Erdogan told him, no.. I don't need to go. You guys come up
         with a list, and I'll decide yes or no.' Erdogan then went to a
         meeting with some actress. THis was a huge sign.. it showed Erdogan
         has authority over them.
         The big issue for the AKP is to rein in the JITEM, the gendarmarie
         intel and ct agency. JITEM is pretty much the embodiment of deep
         state. Erdogan wants it completely purged.
         US support on the Kurdish issue will come.. THis is part of the deal
         TUrkey has with the US on Iraq. If Turkey gets what it wants from
         the US on PKK, it will be a lot more cooperative in other areas,
         including the Caucasus. I'll get more details on what that deal
         entails.
         Turkey will not compromise on Allawi. Erdogan even sent his own
         personal advisors to develop ALlawi's propaganda campaign and build
         up Sunni, Shia and Kurdish support for his bloc. THey are investing
         a lot into this. 
         So far the polls show about 54% in favor of hte referendum. Still
         hard to say that it will pass, but Erdogan sounds confident. THere
         are a lot of promises being made to Kurdish areas for example. He
         tells them I will give you Kurdish channels, courses, etc. whatever
         you want to support democratic freedom, and more changes will come
         when we change the constitution, if you side with us and vote for
         change instead of voting no with the secularists.

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


         -- 
         --
         Emre Dogru
         STRATFOR  
         Cell: +90.532.465.7514 
         Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
         emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
         www.stratfor.com

       -- 
       Yerevan Saeed
       STRATFOR 
       Phone: 009647701574587
       IRAQ
","2010-08-18 15:26:23",1,"2012-03-08 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1194936_re-insight-turkey-dc-power-struggle-over-akp-pkk-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1196005,"RE: DISCUSSION/ BUDGET - Engaging with the Hezzies
","Please keep your lips to yourself. 



-----Original Message-----
From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
On Behalf Of Fred Burton
Sent: Friday, March 06, 2009 6:02 PM
To: 'Analyst List'
Subject: RE: DISCUSSION/ BUDGET - Engaging with the Hezzies

BiBi will kill Nasrallah unless the U.S. can insure HZ is in their box.
>From my lips to your ears.   

-----Original Message-----
From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
On Behalf Of Reva Bhalla
Sent: Friday, March 06, 2009 3:01 PM
To: Analyst List
Subject: DISCUSSION/ BUDGET - Engaging with the Hezzies

sorry, im trying to hurry up b/c it's late in the day. the insight that i
sent out with ME1's and my back and forth explains it all.

1. The British are engaging HEzbollah.
2. this was a move coordinated with the US 3. that's a big break from Bush
policy, which was to completely isolate Hezbollah 4. US may not be
politically ready to deal with HZ, but it is ready to engage with syria,
which it's already doing.
5. The Syrians are in a complex situation right now, very clearly and
publicly engaging with the US, talking again with the Turks about wanting to
restart talks with the Israelis, all the while trying to reassure the
Iranians that they're not straying too far.
6. When it comes down to it, though, the syrians do not want Hezbollah
militarily empowered. They know they're going to have make some concessions,
but the direction they want to take is emboldening HZ as a POLITICAL
movement, allowing Damascus room to negotiate with US, Israel, Saudi  in
cutting off HZ's militant arm.
7. According to our HZ insight, these discussions on moving more political
are underway already int he organization, which can lead to rifts

and that's what i call chaaaaaange, baby!


On Mar 6, 2009, at 2:54 PM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

> this needs discussion before it can become a piece
>
>
> Reva Bhalla wrote:
>> Writing up an analysis on the UK move to engage Hezbollah in 
>> coordination with US moves to engage Syria, and what that means for 
>> Iran
>>
>> have a lot of info to organize, will try to get this out within the 
>> hr medium-length
","2009-03-07 00:36:58",1,"2012-03-27 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1196005_re-discussion-budget-engaging-with-the-hezzies-.html","scott.stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1196090,"Comrade J's Death by Choking
","   From an FBI source  (protect source origin) --

   Thanks Fred.  I was beating around the bush about this when we were last
   discussing as I knew from talking to Helen what the cause of death was. 
   For some reason she did not want this to be released and was happy for it
   to be a \"heart attack\".  That's why I was so insistent it was not
   suspicious.  Sergie was  a bit of a drinker, although not your usual
   fifth-of-vodka-a-night Russian;  It is not unusual for people who choke
   out like this to have a few cocktails and glasses of wine under their belt
   as it helps relax the reflux muscles, leading to the choking.  It's why if
   you ever see this at a restaurant, it's always a fat white guy. 
","2010-09-20 16:04:29",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1196090_comrade-j-s-death-by-choking-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
1198817,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN - on the Razaei assassination
","   If two MC's were used, pro intel hit.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2011 10:45:45 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN - on the Razaei assassination
   I hope we're not going by any theory.  I think three are equally
   plausible:  Israel/US hired out assassination, IRGC/Basij enforcement,
   OC-type dispute.  Can't prove anything one way or another, except the
   sponsors thought it important enough to invest some resources. 

   On 7/26/11 10:33 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     Wait aren't we going by the theory that the U.S. and/or Israel killed
     the guy?

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2011 10:30:30 -0500 (CDT)
     To: <alpha@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN - on the Razaei assassination
     I would find it hard to believe Iranian govt intel agents killed the
     wrong guy. 

     On 7/26/2011 10:27 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       Not necessarily the wrong guy---an electronics engineer could have an
       important role in gov't/defense/nuclear programs.  But I also don't
       know what his expertise specifically was.

       Given all the past research we did on different scientists, I tend to
       believe that most of the scientists at major universities are more
       associated with the government, especially if it's something that
       could play a role in national interest---and power generation at
       minimum is one. 

       Kamran, if you have something that shows the bio of another guy with a
       similar name and some bio info on this guy, that would be pretty
       relevant. 
       On 7/26/11 9:39 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

         That is what I am hearing.

         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
         Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
         Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2011 09:32:18 -0500 (CDT)
         To: <alpha@stratfor.com>
         ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
         Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN - on the Razaei assassination
         So the wrong guy was killed? 

         On 7/26/2011 9:27 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

           Not sure about that but R was not a nuclear scientist. He has been
           confused with another person with the same name.

           Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
           Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
           Date: Tue, 26 Jul 2011 09:23:49 -0500 (CDT)
           To: <alpha@stratfor.com>
           ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
           Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN - on the Razaei assassination
           ** Is this accurate? 

           Razaei was not a nuclear scientist but that did not seem to
           matter, since all graduate students in scientific fields in Iran
           are associated with the ministry of defense.

           On 7/26/2011 8:56 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

             Razaei was not a nuclear scientist but that did not seem to
             matter, since all graduate students in scientific fields in Iran
             are associated with the ministry of defense. 

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2011-07-26 18:08:51",1,"2012-03-06 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1198817_re-alpha-insight-iran-on-the-razaei-assassination-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1209471,"Fwd: Re: Zaur
","   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Re: Zaur                                       
      Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2010 23:21:48 -0600                
      From: Lauren Goodrich <lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com> 
        To: Zaur Hasanov <hasanovz@yahoo.com>              
        CC: Lauren Goodrich <goodrich@stratfor.com>        

   Hello Zaur!
   Here are my answers. I hope they reach you in time. Let me know if you
   have any follow-up questions.
   Lauren

   We are also thinking on wikileaks in Azerbaijan. What's your take on it, I
   mean of Stratfor?

    

   This latest round of WikiLeaks of more than 250,000 U.S. State Department
   diplomatic cables has revealed very little that was not previously known.
   There has not been a single Top Secret report like the Pentagon Papers of
   1971. Each of the WikiLeaks releases have instead been fairly low-level
   reports of even lower levels of classification-despite the cables being
   classified.

    

   The leaks will not affect much in ways of operation, but are instead
   diplomatically embarrassing. The cables reveal what is widely known in the
   world - that countries' representatives act one way and say another. The
   cables cut through much of the diplomatic and theatrical dialogues seen in
   public and instead lay out much of the reality between countries. But such
   frank discussions are meant to be held in confidence since there are
   larger games and balances to be held outside of a bilateral discussion.
   This is how diplomacy and the real back-channel negotiations work.

    

   Do you see in a purposeful leak by US officials or it is happened really?

    

   The U.S. at this time can not afford to have such a scandal as its
   relationships around the world are already strained, so STRATFOR believes
   that the leaks are genuine instead of purposefully orchestrated.

    

   Also what do you think Azerbaijan  can expect from the leak? There are
   tons of stories not published yet. The leak already irritates officials
   here. If wikileak will continue to publish stories about high ranking
   officials it can damage the relations between US and Azerbaijan.  

    

   The WikiLeaks on Azerbaijan were interesting in that there were two sets
   of leaks that will effect Azerbaijan's public perception.

    

   The first set of important leaks is the US officials in Baku comparing
   President Ilham Aliyev to the \"Godfather\", saying that \"the Aliyev
   administration has developed an 'organised crime' image in some quarters,
   leading some analysts to see Ilham Aliyev at times in a mafia-like role.\"
   This is a definite blast against the leadership in Azerbaijan at a time
   when the U.S. State department was already struggling with getting an
   Ambassador sent to Baku. So this leak could be another sign to Baku of the
   U.S.'s lack of taking Azerbaijan seriously. Interestingly, this
   terminology of comparing leaders to the mafia has been seen in may of the
   cables concerning former Soviet states, giving the impression that the
   State Department perhaps does not understand how governments in the region
   operate.

    

   The other set of leaks that STRATFOR finds interesting is those where
   President Aliyev discusses Baku's balance of powers in the region. How
   Azerbaijan is not against normalizing relations with Armenia pending a
   resolution on Nagorn-Karabakh, but how Russia isn't playing the a negative
   role in the process. Also, how Baku isn't tied to Ankara. Such leaks are a
   sign that Azerbaijan isn't solely dependent on the U.S. or Turkey and does
   have a constructive relationship with Russia. Such leaks reinforce to the
   U.S. that it can not dictate Azerbaijan's future, since Baku does have
   options of other major players in the region to leverage into a better
   relationship with Washington.

    

    

   On 12/3/10 3:38 AM, Zaur Hasanov wrote:

     Hey Lauren
      
     Hope you are fine.
      
     We are also thinking on wikileaks in Azerbaijan. What's your take on it,
     I mean of Stratfor?
      
     Do you see in a purposeful leak by US officials or it is happened
     really?
      
     Also what do you think Azerbaijan  can expect from the leak? There are
     tons of stories not published yet. The leak already irritates officials
     here. If wikileak will continue to publish stories about high ranking
     officials it can damage the relations between US and Azerbaijan.  
      
     Have a good day, Zaur      
      
      

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-06 06:37:06",1,"2012-02-29 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1209471_fwd-re-zaur-.html","lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com","","confed@stratfor.com",""
1216587,"Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
","   I can't speak to your particular circumstances, but that is the general
   rule.

   On 7/29/11 2:49 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     I have always been secure even though I am always overseas.

     On 7/29/11 2:59 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       Ok, good question.

       The secure list is not supposed to have anyone overseas on it.  (And
       as a side note, if you are traveling overseas you need to get yourself
       off this list while out of the country.)  We have many WOs overseas
       and so when we send something to secure it is just one more way we are
       trying to protect sourcing by not having it sent over international
       wires (yes, of course, there are many ways that foreigners can access
       any insight sent from anywhere at anytime, but it is somewhat more
       secure when we email only within CONUS).  So either a source or
       insight that is highly sensitive needs to go to the secure list only,
       and that means that we send it in ourselves because the overseas WOs
       won't be able to pick it up.

       Alpha goes to analysts/writers (and the few others selected on this
       list) and not ADPs or Interns, including to analysts/writers overseas.

       On 7/29/11 1:50 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

         your last line in the P.S.... said to send things directly to
         secure... I wanted to know if that meant only to secure or to alpha
         too.
         I think there is still some confusion over which list is which.
         On 7/29/11 1:47 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

           I don't understand your question.  This applies to both lists. 
           All sources need IDs (as mentioned in my PS - does that answer
           your question?).

           As to the question of sending from BBs, I definitely understand
           that issue.  When you return to your computer, please reply to the
           insight sent out with the full coding.  We need this info to
           really track insight and any changes over time.

           On 7/29/11 1:45 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

             secure or alpha?

             On 7/29/11 1:41 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

 We've gotten lazy on insight source IDs again.  Not only do you need to
 put the source code in the subject line, but all of these categories
 need to be filled out for every single insight sent to the list.

 SOURCE: code
 ATTRIBUTION: this is what we should say if we use this info in a
 publication, e.g. STRATFOR source/source in the medical industry/source
 on the ground, etc
 SOURCE DESCRIPTION: this is where we put the more concrete details of
 the source for our internal consumption so we can better understand the
 source's background and ability to make the assessments in the insight
 PUBLICATION: Yes or no.  If you put yes it doesn't mean that we will
 publish it, but only that we can publish it.
 SOURCE RELIABILITY: A-F, A being the best and F being the worst.  this
 grades the turnaround time of this source in responding to requests
 ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1-10, 1 being the best and 10 being the worst (we may
 change the range here in the future).  this changes a lot based on the
 info provided.  1 is \"you can take this to the bank\" and 10 would be an
 example of maybe - \"this is a totally ridiculous rumor but something
 that is spreading on the ground\"
 SPECIAL HANDLING: often this is \"none\" but it may be something like, \"if
 you use this we need to be sure not to mention the part about XXX in the
 publication\" or any other special notes
 SOURCE HANDLER: the person who can take follow-up questions and
 communicate with the source

 If you have any questions, concerns or suggestions, let me know.  I'll
 be back in the office next Tues so if you want to discuss this process
 in person we can do so soon.  In the meantime, remember that every piece
 of insight needs this ENTIRE ID unless it is just something that you
 picked up off the ground from a source that you will likely not hear
 from again.  Even then, you should fill out the entire ID and in the
 SOURCE field simply say - n/a with a description on why we are not
 coding them.

 Jen
 PS: Also remember that is something is highly sensitive to send directly
 - not thru a WO - to the \"secure\" list.  Secure list insights still need
 the above ID tags.


             --
             Lauren Goodrich
             Senior Eurasia Analyst
             STRATFOR
             T: 512.744.4311
             F: 512.744.4334
             lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
             www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com


         --
         Lauren Goodrich
         Senior Eurasia Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: 512.744.4311
         F: 512.744.4334
         lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com


 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-07-29 21:59:09",1,"2012-03-01 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1216587_re-alpha-sourcing-insight-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","","bokhari@stratfor.com",""
1218086,"Re: RESEARCH REQUEST - Brazil & Colombia sign a hot pursuit treaty
 of 50 km
","   Hey Karen - Below and attached is what I was able to pull together on
   Brazil's military presence in the Amazon region. Let me know if there is
   more you need.

   Brazil Military - Amazon Region

    

   Brazilian Military

   Army = Amazonian Command (Manaus, Amazonas) - 8th Military Region

   Navy = HQ IX Manaus, Amazonas

    

    

   Army = 120,000 + 70,000 conscripts = 190,000 total

   Jungle Infantry =

     o 5 bridgades
     o 15 battalions

    

   State police for Amazon and border patrol under army control.

    

   Navy = 67,000

   Military Command of the 9th Naval District

   Command of the fleet of Amazonas

   ComFlotAM = 5 patrol boats

    

                             Amazonas  Command - AM

                http://www.exercito.gov.br/06OMs/indiceom/am.htm

   Command of the Military Command of the Amazon - Manaus Cmdo CMA
   www.cma.eb.mil.br 

   Command of Border - Rio Negro and 5th Infantry Battalion of the Jungle -
   Sao Gabriel da Cachoeira Cmdo R Fron Black / 5 A www.cfrn5bis.eb.mil.br  

   Command of Border - Solimoes and 8th Infantry Battalion of the Jungle -
   Tabatinga Cmdo Fron Solimoes / 8 A www.8bis.eb.mil.br 

   Command of the 2nd Infantry Brigade of the Jungle - Sao Gabriel da
   Cachoeira Cmdo 2nd Bda Inf Sl

   Command of the 2nd Grouping of Engineering - Manaus Cmdo 2 gpt E

   Command of the 12th Military Region - Manaus Cmdo 12th RM

   Command of the 16th Infantry Brigade of the Jungle - Tefe Cmdo 16th Bda
   Inf Sl

   Regional Commission for Works of the 12th Military Region - Manaus CRO/12

   Company Command Military Command of the Amazon - Manaus Cia Cmdo CMA

   Company Command of the 2nd Infantry Brigade of the Jungle - Sao Gabriel da
   Cachoeira Cia Cmdo 2nd Bda Inf Sl

   Company of the 2nd Command Grouping of Engineering - Manaus Cmdo Cia 2 gpt
   E

   Company Command of the 12th Military Region - Manaus Cmdo Cia 12th RM

   Company Command 16th Infantry Brigade of the Jungle - Tefe

   Cia Cmdo 16th Bda Inf Sl

   1st Company of Statement of Jungle - Manaus 1st Cia With Sl
   1st Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Parintins 1st Del SM/29 of
   CSM
   1st Infantry Battalion of the Jungle - Manaus 1 A

   2nd Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Itacoatiara 2nd Del SM/29
   of CSM

   3rd Special Forces Company - Manaus 3rd Cia Esp F
   3rd Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Manaus 3rd Del SM/29 of
   CSM

   4th Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Tefe 4th Del SM/29 of CSM

   4th Division of Survey - Manaus 4th DL www.4dl.eb.mil.br
   4th Battalion of the Army Aviation - Manaus 4 B Av Ex
   www.4esqdavex.eb.mil.br 
   4 Center for Telematics Area - Manaus 4 CTA www.cma.eb.mil.br  
   5th Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Tabatinga 5th Del SM/29 of
   CSM

   6th Precinct of the Military Service of the 31st CSM - Humaita 6th Del
   SM/31 of CSM

   7th Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Barcelos 7th Del SM/29 of
   CSM

   12th Company of Guards - Manaus 12th Cia Gd
   12th Police Company of the Army - Manaus 12th Cia PE
   12th Inspectorate of Army Finance And Accounting - Manaus 12th ICF Ex
   12th Battalion of Supply - Manaus 12 Sup B

   16th Logistics Base - 16th Tefe Log Ba
   16 Platoon of Communications of Jungle - Tefe
     16 Pel With SL

   17th Infantry Battalion of the Jungle - Tefe 17 BIS

   21 -a Companhia de Engenharia de Construc,ao - Sao Gabriel da Cachoeira 21
   -a Cia And CNST

   22 Police Platoon of the Army - San Gabriel da Cachoeira 22 Pel PE

   29th district of Military Service - Manaus 29th CSM www.29csm.eb.mil.br 

   34 Police Platoon of the Army - Tefe 34 Pel PE

   54 Infantry Battalion of the Jungle - Humaita 54 A www.54bis.eb.mil.br

    

    

   Amazon Command Logistics

    

   1 - The Challenge of the jungle
   The Amazon Jungle contains nearly a third of the planet's tropical
   forests. It is a true \"ocean of trees.\" large and dangerous. She is so
   huge in fact, that the equivalent cross-cross the Atlantic Ocean between
   Africa and the Americas.

   The extensive and dense Amazonian forest is endowed with huge mesh basin,
   poor road network, high levels of humidity, rainfall and constant risk of
   tropical diseases, and it is the major obstacle to the logistics
   operations, either in operations or in support for organizations Military
   based in the area. There is the world no region so inhospitable and
   frightening as the Tropical Jungle.

   The 8th Military Region (8th RM) has a logistics area of responsibility of
   more than 1,500,000 km2, which represents approximately 18% of national
   territory. In real challenge to meet your Organicac,oes Military (OM)
   contingent, are employed means of the Brazilian Air Force (FAB), and
   organic car ferries and the 8th of Supply Depot (8 Sup D).

   The adversity of the environment directly influence the performance of man
   and material. The deterioration of the items of supply is a constant and
   real threat that demands the taking of special measures to preserve, such
   as conducting periodic purge of the food, the climate of depots and
   warehouses and preventive maintenance of stocked items.

   Besides these, other challenges have been defeated by the 8th RM in 1997
   to provide the necessary support to the OM under their responsibility,
   such as:

   - Creation of the lining of Maraba Hospital, opened in October 1997;

   - Production, distribution and installation of seven dental offices for
   OM;

   - Reequipping of doctors;

   - Collection and distribution of two modules of boats tactics for the 2nd
   Infantry Battalion of the Jungle (2 A - Bethlehem) and the 52 Infantry
   Battalion of the Jungle (52 A - Maraba-PA);

   - Installation of a ramp to facilitate loading and unloading, the vessel
   floating Codajas and Logistics;

   - Rationalization of the distribution of quotas of fuel to OM, offering
   economy and allowing the supply of petrol and diesel to April to March
   1998;

   - Reducing the rate of pre-availability of vehicles, by using funds from
   the Department of Transportation;

   - Fosfatizac,ao of 1880 OM regional arms of Arsenal in the War of Rio de
   Janeiro, with employment of aircraft for the transport of FAB;

   - Making operational ration alternative, using items of food in the trade,
   with great economy and good acceptance by the troop maneuvers in the
   Strait of brief and the State of Amapa;

   - Increased storage capacity of the cold chambers of OM further from
   Bethlehem and

   - The use of C-130 aircraft of the Support Plan Amazon, for carrying
   supplies, and the C-95 of the agreement with the FAB, to carry the team
   Regional Park Maintenance / 8 (Pq R Mnt / 8), General Hospital of Belem
   (HGeBe) and Regional Commission for Works / 8 (CRO / 8), and perform any
   evacuations in order to meet the entire area of responsibility of the 8th
   MR.

   2 - Insulation
   8th in the RM, the largest population density are at the margins of the
   main roads and rivers: Imperatriz (MA), Maraba, Altamira, Itaituba and
   Santarem, in Para

   Climatic conditions, the precariousness of the roads, particularly the
   Transamazon and the great distances inland to overcome, this isolation
   makes it the most difficult one for the completion of logistical support.

   3 - Large distances
   The road infrastructure priority, traditionally, means river, which are
   considered the most viable for logistical support to troops in Macapa,
   Santarem, and Itaituba Altamira, drawing up the routes of the network
   hidroviaria of the Amazon Basin.

   Addressing the troops in cantoned Oiapoque (AP) is a special challenge.
   The activity can be done by sea, rising up after the river of the same
   name or, as is currently done by the combination of the waterway to
   Macapa, the road of 620 kilometers through the BR-156, which connects one
   the capital city of Oiapoque, or by air.

   The roads south of Para, in theory, allow any support to the troops
   positioned along the highway Transamazon, ie Maraba, Altamira and
   Itaituba. However, its lack of traffic during periods of rain particularly
   difficult logistical support for these two cities, requiring the
   employment of means of inland 8 Sup D and / or aircraft of the FAB for the
   transport of supplies.

   The following table summarizes the distances to be overcome and the means
   employed by 8 Sup D to support the troops in charge of logistics 8th RM

   VENUE OF OM Road (Km) Anv C-130 (h) Ferry (days)
   Oiapoque - 1:40 5
   Macapa - 1:00 2
   Santarem - 1:30 5
   Itaituba - 2:00 6
   Altamira - 1:20 3
   Maraba 668 - --
   Empress 578 - --

   4 - The limitations of the means of communications and transport
   The communications environment in the jungle suffer effects of weather
   such as torrential rain, humidity, heat and limitations offered by the
   scarcity of roads, poor visibility at ground curled in some areas and the
   dense vegetation.

   However, the 8th MRI was able to test with success, some communications
   equipment during the \"Operation Brief\" and \"Operation Amapa\", held at the
   end of 1997.

   We used the following equipment: TW 7000; generating solar power, portable
   generator, automatic telephone exchange, telegraph handlers, all radio
   EB-11 ERC 131/TPX720 to link earth - air, maintaining contact with
   military aircraft to 50 km away , and the same at 1,000 feet altitude, TW
   2000 (run); KENWOOD with laptop or desktop, integrating radio-wire (IRF)
   and the use of brief radio station for the transmission of messages
   pre-established.

   The question of means of transport to be used in large-scale displacement
   is closely linked to the isolation of the units to be supported, the
   volume of material to be transported and the speed you wish. You can say
   that the mesh of the Eastern Amazon river meets the needs of access roads
   to large for the implementation of logistical support. However, although
   significant, the road is of poor quality, particularly in the BR-230 and
   156, during the rainy months.

   With this, the growing importance of maintenance of vehicles, the use of
   ferries and FAB for the logistical support to always reach the end of the
   line.

   5 - Support to civilian populations and indigenous
   The Army, through its military organizations (OM) distributed along the
   borders, major rivers and roads, providing essential support to
   communities and indigenous civilians.

   The 8th Military Region supports this activity, providing conditions for
   the functioning of hospitals to trim jobs and health care, both in
   personnel and in equipment and medicines.

   With the participation of the Region, the OM able to support various
   operations performing the type Civic Action Committee (ACIS) and joint
   campaigns with the Prefecture of the various towns in visits in the
   specialized field of medical health, dental and laboratory, with the
   objective to raise community spirit between the army and the local
   community.

   These activities are quite common, particularly in more isolated and
   Military Organizations, Santarem, Itaituba, north of Altamira and
   Cleveland.

    

    

                      Amazon Naval Command - 9th District

                           http://www.mar.mil.br/9dn/

    

   Organizations subordinate to the Military Command of the 9th Naval
   District

     o Command of the fleet of Amazonas
     o Capitania the Amazon River West
     o Battalion Operations Ribeirinha
     o Capitania River to Tabatinga
     o Naval Station Rio Negro
     o Deposit Naval Manaus
     o 3rd Squadron of Helicopters General Employment

    

   OM subordinated to ComFlotAM

     o P-30 Patrol Boat River Roraima
     o P-31 Patrol Boat River Rondonia
     o P-32 Patrol Boat River Amapa
     o P-20 Patrol Boat River Teixeira
     o P-21 Patrol Boat River Raposo Tavares
     o U-16 Hospital Doctor Ship Assistance Montenegro
     o U-18 Ship Assistance Hospital Oswaldo Cruz
     o U-19 Ship Assistance Hospital Carlos Chagas

    

   OM subordinated to CFAOC
   River station of Porto Velho
     Agency of River Tefe
     Agency of River Eirunepe
     Agency of Boca do Acre River
     Agency of River Guajara Mirim
     Agency of Itacoatiara River
     Agency of Parintins River

    

   Karen Hooper wrote:

     1) What are the most prominent (or any), non-Afghanistan/Pakistan hot
     pursuit agreements between countries around the world?
     2) Need a status update on Brazilian forces deployed to the Amazon
     regions: Where are they? How many are there?

     Priority 1

     Please let me know who takes this.

     It might be best to split the two questions up.

     Thanks!
     --
     Karen Hooper
     Latin America Analyst
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Kristen Cooper
 Researcher
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com
 512.744.4093 - office
 512.619.9414 - cell
 kristen.cooper@stratfor.com
","2009-03-12 16:44:43",1,"2012-08-02 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1218086_re-research-request-brazil-and-colombia-sign-a-hot-pursuit.html","kristen.cooper@stratfor.com","","hooper@stratfor.com,nathan.hughes@stratfor.com,researchers@stratfor.com","attach/105/105950_Brazil Military - Amazon Region Command.doc"
1218415,"INSIGHT - CHINA/AUSTRALIA - Gillard hacking - CN65
","   SOURCE:  CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes NO ATTRIBUTION
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen
   This government has been very cavalier about security issues in China
   including bringing their laptops to China and even leaving them in their
   hotels despite their security briefings.  Source believes that these
   computers have been hacked before. 

   These computers are on the Parliamentary network, with public email
   addresses, namely for constituents including important companies (e.g.
   Rio, BHP, etc - quasi commercial/quasi national interest).  There are
   separate ministerial computers.  At least 10 officials have been hacked on
   the Parliamentary network.  It is unclear if the ministerial computers
   have been compromised, but it is likely.  Regardless the amount of
   commercial information they could have obtained is enormous.

   The government is building the national broadband network.  It is costing
   36 billion AUD.  Huawei is still being considered for the bid. 
   Australia's security guys are going nuts.  The potential for their entire
   security apparatus to be compromised is great. 

   The increase in hacking is a test.  They think the west is weak.  They
   don't think the US will respond and they know the Australians won't
   respond. 

   The Australian that has gone missing, Yang Hengjun the spy novelist living
   in Sydney (report in OS earlier today and yesterday) didn't just retire
   from the MFA as the OS reports are saying. 

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-03-30 04:50:59",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1218415_insight-china-australia-gillard-hacking-cn65-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
1219122,"Re: CHINA/AUSTRALIA - Hanlong lifts bid for Sundance: report
","   You called after my bed-time.  I try desperately to get 6 hours and turn
   the phone off at 11pm.  Not always so, but I try.

   On 10/6/11 2:43 AM, William \"Bill\" O'Chee wrote:

     Jen,
     I tried calling you, but to no avail.
     Will try tomorrow evening your time.
     Yours,
     William O'Chee
     ********* 
     Partner
     Himalaya Consulting
     Australia:        +61 7 31033306
     Aust mob:  +61 422 688886
     China mob:   +86 1365 1001069
     On 06/10/2011, at 12:46 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       A little discussion from our side.

       -------- Original Message --------

       Subject: Re: [EastAsia] Fwd: Fwd: INSIGHT - CN65 Re: CHINA/AUSTRALIA - 
                Hanlong lifts bid for Sundance: report                        
          Date: Wed, 05 Oct 2011 09:43:06 -0500                               

       We do know that Sundance directors unanimously recommended Hanlong's
       57c cash per share offer yesterday, implying a market cap of $A1.65
       billion, or a 65.3 percent premium.

       The new offer was reportedly contingent on Sundance securing an
       agreement with govts of Cameroon and Congo to approve conventions for
       the Mbalam project. Govt approvals in these countries were not
       expected to come unless Sundance could show it had the necessary
       financing - the increased bid has done that - so I'd be surprised if
       these govts did not make regulatory approvals now.

       Sundance did the right thing by holding out for a higher bid because
       we know Hanlong wants to get its hands on the project to try and break
       the stranglehold of BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale. Hanlong chairman
       Liu Han told Sichuan Daily that the successful purchase of Sundance
       will have a huge impact on Chinese mining and Chinese iron markets.
       Liu also said that Hanlong has signed a deal with an unnamed Chinese
       construction company to build the rail and port infrastructure for the
       Mbalam project, which it said would produce iron ore at a \"very
       competitive\" $US21 a tonne.

       Don't forget that there were also insider trading allegations against
       Hanlong employees in Oz on Sept 14, although it's starting to look
       like this might not be a deal breaker. Getting a read on Oz's foreign
       investment review board (FIRB) thinking on this is going to be more
       difficult. I will say that FIRB just approved a plan (yesterday) by
       Rio Tinto and Japan's Mitsubishi to to basically mop up the remaining
       shares in coal miner Coal & Allied that they don't already own. Rio
       currently owns 75.5 percent of Coal & Allied, and Mitsubishi 10.2
       percent. They've offered $125 a share, valuing the miner at $10.8
       billion, minus the special dividend of up to $8 per share proposed by
       Coal & Allied. I mention this because sometimes it feels like FIRB
       makes approval decisions in waves...

           -------- Original Message --------

           Subject: [EastAsia] CHINA/AUSTRALIA - Hanlong lifts bid for        
                    Sundance: report                                          
              Date: Mon, 03 Oct 2011 11:19:43 -0500                           

           Hanlong lifts bid for Sundance: report

           http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Hanlong-lifts-bid-for-Sundance-report-pd20111003-M9VUK?OpenDocument&src=hp14

             Chinese group Hanlong Mining has lifted its takeover offer for
             Sundance Resources Ltd, in order to secure an agreement on the
             deal from the takeover target, according to a reports by Reuters
             Media.

             Sources told Reuters that Hanlong has raised its offer from the
             50 cents per share bid made in July. The new bid would be
             revealed by Tuesday, the sources said.

             Hanlong's initial bid valued Sundance at around $1.4 billion.

             Earlier this morning, Sundance was placed in a trading halt,
             ahead of an announcement on its possible acquisition by Hanlong.

             \"The company requests an immediate trading halt of its
             securities until open of trading on Wednesday 5 October, 2011,
             or release of an announcement by the company,\" Sundance said.

             \"The reason for the request is to provide an update regarding
             the proposal from Hanlong Mining Limited to enter into a Scheme
             of Arrangement to acquire 100 per cent of the issued capital of
             Sundance Resources Limited.\"

             An announcement would be made to the market prior to open of
             trading on Wednesday, the company said.

             Hanlong is also looking to take over Bannerman Resources Ltd,
             with a $144 million bid.

             However, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission
             (ASIC) is investigating trades by Hanlong employees in both
             Sundance Resources and Bannerman Resources and has obtained
             court orders to restrict their travel.

             In September, Hanlong Mining said it would stand down its
             executives who were being investigated by the corporate watchdog
             for suspected insider trading in the Chinese company's takeover
             targets.

             Sundance shares last traded at 43 cents a share.

             With AAP

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-06 12:35:25",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1219122_re-china-australia-hanlong-lifts-bid-for-sundance-report-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","","william@himalayaconsulting.biz",""
1219135,"Re: CHINA/AUSTRALIA - Hanlong lifts bid for Sundance: report
","   Perfect.  I'll look forward to it.  Sleep well.

   On 10/6/11 7:12 AM, William \"Bill\" O'Chee wrote:

     Dear Jen,
     I shall remember that, but I do plead I was delayed by that business
     lunch. :)
     I shall call you this evening your time.  I have just come back from a
     district RSL meeting, and am too tired for words.  You have a great day,
     and we can talk tonight about these corruption issues and other China
     matters (including Hanlong Sichuan).
     Yours,
     William O'Chee
     ********* 
     Partner
     Himalaya Consulting
     Australia:        +61 7 31033306
     Aust mob:  +61 422 688886
     China mob:   +86 1365 1001069
     On 06/10/2011, at 8:35 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       You called after my bed-time.  I try desperately to get 6 hours and
       turn the phone off at 11pm.  Not always so, but I try.

       On 10/6/11 2:43 AM, William \"Bill\" O'Chee wrote:

         Jen,
         I tried calling you, but to no avail.
         Will try tomorrow evening your time.
         Yours,
         William O'Chee
         ********* 
         Partner
         Himalaya Consulting
         Australia:        +61 7 31033306
         Aust mob:  +61 422 688886
         China mob:   +86 1365 1001069
         On 06/10/2011, at 12:46 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

           A little discussion from our side.

           -------- Original Message --------

           Subject: Re: [EastAsia] Fwd: Fwd: INSIGHT - CN65 Re:               
                    CHINA/AUSTRALIA - Hanlong lifts bid for Sundance: report  
              Date: Wed, 05 Oct 2011 09:43:06 -0500                           

           We do know that Sundance directors unanimously recommended
           Hanlong's 57c cash per share offer yesterday, implying a market
           cap of $A1.65 billion, or a 65.3 percent premium.

           The new offer was reportedly contingent on Sundance securing an
           agreement with govts of Cameroon and Congo to approve conventions
           for the Mbalam project. Govt approvals in these countries were not
           expected to come unless Sundance could show it had the necessary
           financing - the increased bid has done that - so I'd be surprised
           if these govts did not make regulatory approvals now.

           Sundance did the right thing by holding out for a higher bid
           because we know Hanlong wants to get its hands on the project to
           try and break the stranglehold of BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and
           Vale. Hanlong chairman Liu Han told Sichuan Daily that the
           successful purchase of Sundance will have a huge impact on Chinese
           mining and Chinese iron markets. Liu also said that Hanlong has
           signed a deal with an unnamed Chinese construction company to
           build the rail and port infrastructure for the Mbalam project,
           which it said would produce iron ore at a \"very competitive\" $US21
           a tonne.

           Don't forget that there were also insider trading allegations
           against Hanlong employees in Oz on Sept 14, although it's starting
           to look like this might not be a deal breaker. Getting a read on
           Oz's foreign investment review board (FIRB) thinking on this is
           going to be more difficult. I will say that FIRB just approved a
           plan (yesterday) by Rio Tinto and Japan's Mitsubishi to to
           basically mop up the remaining shares in coal miner Coal & Allied
           that they don't already own. Rio currently owns 75.5 percent of
           Coal & Allied, and Mitsubishi 10.2 percent. They've offered $125 a
           share, valuing the miner at $10.8 billion, minus the special
           dividend of up to $8 per share proposed by Coal & Allied. I
           mention this because sometimes it feels like FIRB makes approval
           decisions in waves...

               -------- Original Message --------

               Subject: [EastAsia] CHINA/AUSTRALIA - Hanlong lifts bid for    
                        Sundance: report                                      
                  Date: Mon, 03 Oct 2011 11:19:43 -0500                       

               Hanlong lifts bid for Sundance: report

               http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Hanlong-lifts-bid-for-Sundance-report-pd20111003-M9VUK?OpenDocument&src=hp14

                 Chinese group Hanlong Mining has lifted its takeover offer
                 for Sundance Resources Ltd, in order to secure an agreement
                 on the deal from the takeover target, according to a reports
                 by Reuters Media.

                 Sources told Reuters that Hanlong has raised its offer from
                 the 50 cents per share bid made in July. The new bid would
                 be revealed by Tuesday, the sources said.

                 Hanlong's initial bid valued Sundance at around $1.4
                 billion.

                 Earlier this morning, Sundance was placed in a trading halt,
                 ahead of an announcement on its possible acquisition by
                 Hanlong.

                 \"The company requests an immediate trading halt of its
                 securities until open of trading on Wednesday 5 October,
                 2011, or release of an announcement by the company,\"
                 Sundance said.

                 \"The reason for the request is to provide an update
                 regarding the proposal from Hanlong Mining Limited to enter
                 into a Scheme of Arrangement to acquire 100 per cent of the
                 issued capital of Sundance Resources Limited.\"

                 An announcement would be made to the market prior to open of
                 trading on Wednesday, the company said.

                 Hanlong is also looking to take over Bannerman Resources
                 Ltd, with a $144 million bid.

                 However, the Australian Securities and Investments
                 Commission (ASIC) is investigating trades by Hanlong
                 employees in both Sundance Resources and Bannerman Resources
                 and has obtained court orders to restrict their travel.

                 In September, Hanlong Mining said it would stand down its
                 executives who were being investigated by the corporate
                 watchdog for suspected insider trading in the Chinese
                 company's takeover targets.

                 Sundance shares last traded at 43 cents a share.

                 With AAP

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-06 14:15:20",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1219135_re-china-australia-hanlong-lifts-bid-for-sundance-report-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","","william@himalayaconsulting.biz",""
1219814,"more on anonymous
","Here ya go... xo...



Anonymous vs. Zetas Amid Mexico's Cartel Violence
November 2, 2011 | 1701 GMT


By Scott Stewart

The online activist collective Anonymous posted a message on the
Internet on Oct. 31 saying it would continue its campaign against
Mexican criminal cartels and their government supporters despite the risks.

The message urged inexperienced activists, who might not be practicing
proper online security measures, to abstain from participating. It also
urged individuals associated with Anonymous in Mexico not to conduct
physical pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy
Fawkes masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their Internet or
physical-world activities. Guy Fawkes was a British Roman Catholic
conspirator involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament on Nov. 5,
1605. The British celebrate the plot’s failure as Guy Fawkes Day each
Nov. 5. In modern times, the day has come to have special meaning for
anarchists. Since 2006, the style of the Guy Fawkes mask used in the
movie “V for Vendetta” has become something of an anarchist icon in the
United Kingdom and elsewhere.
Related Video

It was no coincidence, then, that in an Oct. 6 video Anonymous activists
set Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release an Anonymous
associate allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz. The associate reportedly was
abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign called “Operation Paperstorm.”

The Oct. 31 message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,
dubbed “Operation Cartel,” would be dangerous. It noted that some
members of the collective would form a group of trusted associates to
participate in a special task force to execute the operation. It asked
supporters to pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to the
Operation Cartel task force for publication on the Internet via a
software tool developed by Anonymous that permits the anonymous passing
of information.

When discussing Anonymous, it is important to remember that Anonymous is
not a hierarchical organization, but rather a collective of activists.
Individuals who choose to associate themselves with the collective
frequently disagree over issues addressed by the collective and are free
to choose which actions to support and/or participate in.

With Nov. 5 approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not
backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be
useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous
and Los Zetas and to address some of its potential implications.

Context

The Mexican port city of Veracruz has been the epicenter of this event.
Veracruz has been a busy place over the past few months in terms of
Mexico’s cartel wars. The port serves as a critical transportation hub
for Los Zetas narcotics smuggling. Because of this, STRATFOR has
identified Veracruz as a bellwether for determining Los Zetas’
trajectory in the coming months.

In a major recent development in Veracruz, the Sinaloa cartel began an
offensive into the Zetas stronghold using the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva
Generacion (CJNG), which, under the name “Matazetas” (Spanish for “Zeta
killers”), conducted high-profile body dumps of more than 50 alleged
low-level Zetas operatives on Sept. 20 and Sept. 22. On Oct. 25, Mexican
marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, also known as “El Bam
Bam,” who was the Zetas’ plaza boss in Veracruz. The Zetas in Veracruz
thus are feeling pressure from both the Mexican government and the CJNG.

The Anonymous Internet collective entered this dynamic in August with
its activities in Veracruz. It is common knowledge that members of
local, state and federal governments in Mexico support various cartel
groups. In the state of Veracruz, it is generally believed that some
members of the state government support Los Zetas, the dominant cartel
there. In response to this corruption, some who have associated
themselves with Anonymous launched Operation Paperstorm. These activists
distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz denouncing the state government
for supporting Los Zetas. They conducted leaflet distributions Aug. 13,
Aug. 20 and Aug. 29. They also released videos on the Internet on Aug.
26 and Aug. 29 condemning the Veracruz state government.

Activities outside Veracruz also played a part in setting the stage. On
Sept. 13, the bodies of two people who had been tortured and killed were
hung from a pedestrian overpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state. Signs
left with the bodies said Los Zetas had killed the pair because they had
posted information pertaining to the Zetas on blogs that specialize in
reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept. 26, the decapitated body of
Marisol Macias Castaneda was found in a park in Nuevo Laredo. Macias,
who worked for a local newspaper, allegedly posted on cartel blogs using
the nickname “Laredo Girl.” A message found with her body said the Zetas
killed her due to her online activities.

Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for
a distributed denial of service attack against the official website of
the state of Veracruz. Although her murder occurred outside of the
state, Anonymous said its attack on the Veracruz website was in response
to Laredo Girl’s death. This indicates that activists understand that
Los Zetas are active in both areas and suggests that Veracruz
state-based activists are driving the Anonymous campaign against Los Zetas.

Significantly, some individuals associated with Anonymous already were
unhappy with the state of Veracruz over its decision to prosecute two
individuals who had posted kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug. 25 that
proved false. According to the reports, a group of children had been
abducted from a Veracruz school. The inaccurate reports allegedly caused
some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed to the
school to check on their children. The so-called Twitter terrorists
initially were charged with offenses that could have carried a 30-year
sentence. Some associated with Anonymous, which has absolute freedom of
speech on the Internet as one of its foundational principles, took
umbrage at the prospect of such stiff penalties — especially given the
stark contrast with the impunity enjoyed by many cartel figures in Mexico.

STRATFOR began to focus on the story following the Oct. 6 release of the
video in which Anonymous activists threatened to release information
about individuals cooperating with Los Zetas if the Zetas did not
release the Anonymous activist kidnapped during Operation Paperstorm. In
light of the approaching Nov. 5 deadline, we published an analysis of
the topic on Oct. 28; the topic subsequently received a great deal of
media coverage.

This publicity has generated a very interesting response from Anonymous
that emphasizes that it is a collective, not an organization. Some
Anonymous activists began to back off the issue, erasing online user
accounts formerly associated with the campaign, suggesting the operation
against Los Zetas had been a hoax and claiming that no activist had been
kidnapped. Other activists suggested that the campaign was dangerous,
ill-advised and should be suspended. Still other activists became more
strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign
continue. As noted, Anonymous’ collective nature means activists can
select the actions they participate in, including Operation Cartel. It
would only take one dedicated individual to continue the operation.

The will to continue was manifested Oct. 29 with the hacking of the
personal website of Gustavo Rosario Torres, the former attorney general
of the Mexican state of Tabasco. The site was defaced with a message
from Anonymous Mexico stating that Rosario is a Zeta. Rosario has long
been accused in the Mexican and international media of protecting Los
Zetas, and videos long have circulated on YouTube making the same
charge. The hacking of his website thus did not provide any startling
revelation; Anonymous will have to uncover and publish original and
timely information if it hopes to do much damage to Los Zetas.

The determination by some activists to continue the operation against
Los Zetas also was reflected in the tone of the Oct. 31 message. Some
activists associated with Anonymous clearly feel compelled to continue
with the campaign over what they have characterized as an outpouring of
public support in the wake of the media coverage. According to their
Oct. 31 video statement:

“We received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the
voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the
side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in
critical moments like the one they currently live in.”

We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the
campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

Blowback

Mexico’s various cartels long have used the Internet to trumpet their
triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even degrade their enemies.
The cartels have posted videos of the torture, execution and desecration
of the corpses of rivals. They also frequently monitor narcoblogs and
sometimes even post on them. As demonstrated by the September blogger
killings in Nuevo Laredo, Los Zetas appear to possess at least some
rudimentary capability to trace online activity to people in the
physical world. They are known to employ their own team of dedicated
cyber experts and to have sources within the Mexican government.

In addition to technical intelligence, the Zetas can use old-fashioned
human intelligence to track down their online enemies. People sometimes
discuss their online identities with family and friends, and such
information can be overheard and passed to Los Zetas in return for
money. This danger was recognized in the Oct. 31 video from Anonymous
that urges participants in their campaign not to discuss their
activities with anyone.

In past Anonymous actions, like the December 2010 attack against PayPal
after the WikiLeaks scandal broke, the U.S. and British governments
arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly
participated in the attacks. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of
activists associated with Anonymous actions conducted against the
Turkish government in response to its plan to establish a national
Internet-filtering system. This indicates that some activists associated
with Anonymous are not nearly as anonymous as they would like to be.
Every action on the Internet leaves some sort of trail, making it very
difficult to be truly anonymous.

Like other Mexican cartels, Los Zetas do not take affronts lightly. Even
if Anonymous cannot provide information that damages Los Zetas smuggling
operations, the very fact that the collective has decided publicly to
challenge Los Zetas will result in some sort of response. The big
question is whether the Zetas possess the capability to trace the
organizers of the Anonymous action?

One challenge with tracking an entity such as Anonymous is that it is
intentionally amorphous. It is also as transnational as the Internet,
and it would be unsurprising if many of those chosen to participate in
the operation against Los Zetas are located in the United Sates, Europe
and other areas that are outside the Zetas’ immediate reach.

The amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way, however.
If Los Zetas abduct and execute random patrons at an Internet cafe,
behead them and place Guy Fawkes masks on their heads, it will be very
difficult to prove that they were not associated with Anonymous. Los
Zetas also could execute random people and claim they had provided
Anonymous with information in order to intimidate people from actually
cooperating with Anonymous. As Anonymous noted in its Oct. 31 video,
this is dangerous business indeed.

The Big Picture

How the Mexican public reacts to the Anonymous operation must be
watched. The criminal cartels and their violence have deeply affected
many people in Mexico’s middle and upper classes. STRATFOR talks to many
people in Mexico who fear that they or a family member will be
kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like Ciudad Juarez,
Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen find themselves in a
terrible bind. They face ever-increasing extortion demands from the
cartels while their business revenues dwindle because the violence
associated with those same cartels has frightened people into not going
out. This is forcing many small businesses to close. It also is creating
a great deal of frustration and resentment.

At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries
in the world for journalists, and many media organizations practice
heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the
September blogger killings, some of the narcoblogs, like Blog del Narco,
have exhibited strong signs of self-censorship inspired by fear. As a
result, many Mexicans believe the mainstream media are not of any real
assistance in the face of cartel violence.

Mexican citizens also are frustrated with their government, which, as
noted, is well-known for corruption. This sentiment is feeding
Anonymous’ original campaign in Veracruz. This frustration even has led
some people to begin discussing the creation of vigilante groups to
fight the cartels — though this has been attempted before in Mexico. As
we saw in the case of La Familia Michoacana, which began as such a
vigilante group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely
on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for
assistance, they may embrace Anonymous, coming to view its form of
cybervigilantism as an outlet for their frustration. If Anonymous is
perceived as a safe way to pass information pertaining to cartel
activities, we may see people from all over the country begin to share
intelligence. Such human intelligence could very well prove to be far
more damaging to the cartels than any information Anonymous activists
can dredge up electronically. As this operation is becoming more widely
publicized, the pool of people outside Mexico who might wish to
participate will likely grow. The number of people inside Mexico who
wish to provide information might grow as well.

Anonymous has taken on many powerful entities in the past, such as major
transnational corporations and governments. But the repercussions from
participating in such operations were never as grave for online
activists as they are in this case. Being identified and detained by
Scotland Yard or the FBI is a far different situation than being
identified and detained by Los Zetas.


-- 
Jennifer Richmond
richmond@stratfor.com
w: (512) 744-4324
c: (512) 422-9335
www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-03 14:42:04",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1219814_more-on-anonymous-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","","troy.may@wimex.cn",""
1220381,"signed/pending spreadsheet
","14","2011-12-09 19:16:16",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1220381_signed-pending-spreadsheet-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","","mfriedman@stratfor.com","attach/106/106104_signed partnerships.xlsx"
1220919,"Fwd: Confederation Projects for Turkey
","   FYI, for your update
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Reva Bhalla <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
     Date: March 16, 2010 10:42:51 PM CDT
     To: Meredith Friedman <mfriedman@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Confederation Projects for Turkey
     CONFEDERATION PROJECTS FOR TURKEY
     Cihan News Agency -- owns Zaman, Today's Zaman and other major Turkish
     media agencies
     Cihan provides news to: CNN International, BBC, NBC, MTV, CBS, ABC,
     Al-Jazeera, Abu Dhabi Tv, ARD, ZDF, SAT 1, TF1, Canal +, RAI, Tve,
     Antena 3, TV2 Denmark, Nos Tv, MJTV, NTV Japan, KBS, NTV Russia, TV6,
     IRIB, MEGA Channel, Bloomberg, MSMBC, ANS, Lider Tv and others. They
     have staff in Central Asia, Mideast, Balkans, Europe, South America,
     Africa, Far East. Permanent offices in places like Gaza, Kabul, Arbil.
     Political ideology:  Gulenist/loyal to ruling AKP
     My contact:  Abdulhamit Bilici (a.bilici@zaman.com.tr) - General
     Director of Cihan News Agency and columnist for Zaman
     Today's Zaman -- English-language version of Zaman; direct competitor to
     Hurriyet
     Has partnership with British daily The Times
     Political ideology: Gulenist/loyal to ruling AKP
     My contact: Bulent Kenes (b.kenes@todayszaman.com) - Editor in Chief of
     Today's Zaman  (both he and Bilici are extremely influential within the
     Gulen movement.)
     Additional contact:  Ali Aslan aslan@alihalit.com - columnist for
     Today's Zaman, based in Washington, DC
     Note -- I had a preliminary discussion with Mr. Bilici and Mr. Kenes
     about a partnership when I met with them at Zaman HQ in Istanbul. I also
     know their primary contact in DC. They would need a bit more explanation
     and coaxing. Their immediate response was that they publish all the
     information that they get on their Web site. What we would have to
     better explain is that we're looking for a direct partnership. If we
     have a deal with Hurriyet, then we should also have a deal with
     Cihan/Zaman to balance out politically.
     Dogan News Agency -  owns Hurriyet, Turkish Daily News and others
     Direct competitor to Cihan News Agency
     Political ideology:  A lot more neutral, but more in line with the
     nationalist/secularist camp
     Contacts:  Haluk Tukel - CEO of Dogan media group and Secretary-General
     of TUSIAD - main business association dominated by
     nationalist/secularists;  David Judson, editor in chief of Hurriyet -
     david.judson@tdn.com.tr;  Taylan Bilgic - managing editor of Hurriyet -
     taylan.bilgic@tdn.com.tr
      
     Note -- had dinner with David Judson, who explained why he was hesitant
     before to sign a deal with STRATFOR since Dogan media has been under
     attack by the Gulenists and AKP and are facing major tax evasion fines.
     They didnt want to also get branded as working with a 'shadow CIA'. Now
     he feels they have enough partnerships under his belt to move forward
     with STRATFOR.  My meeting with Haluk Tukel got cancelled last minute,
     but we're in touch via email and I think I'll be able to meet him when
     he's in DC in a couple weeks.
     EnergyReport  - An energy-focused magazine written in Turkish and
     English. Launched January 2010, monthly circulation. 
     Contacts:  Gulcin Fatma Kabasakalli (fkabasakalli@yahoo.com, +90 530 363
     14 84);   Faruk Demir - mfd2030@gmail.com ( 0.530.592 46 09)
     This is a very polished energy publication run by the topmost energy
     expert in Turkey, Faruk Demir and his assistant, Fatma Kabasakalli, who
     is the editor in chief. Faruk Demir was formerly on the Turkish national
     security council. Now he conducts a lot of energy negotiations on behalf
     of Turkey, but keeps a bit of distance from the government to give him
     some flexibility. He and his assistant are extremely well-connected. The
     magazine also has a lot of good analysis and insider information. They
     are already planning on publishing one of George's weeklies in their
     next publication. I'll bring a copy of the magazine when I come to
     Austin next week. If we set up a formal partnership with them, we can
     have regular access to the best resources on Turkey's energy relations
     with Russia, Azerbaijan, Europe, Central Asia, US, etc. This would be
     extremely useful for our source efforts.  I met with Faruk and Fatma for
     lunch while in Istanbul and discussed a partnership with Fatma. I will
     be seeing Faruk in DC in a couple weeks.
","2010-03-17 04:44:01",1,"2012-03-03 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1220919_fwd-confederation-projects-for-turkey-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","","richmond@stratfor.com",""
1222809,"RE: INSIGHT - RUSSIA - monster metals merger?
","   Before Fred has to ask....  How do I make money off of this???
    

   Aaric S. Eisenstein

   STRATFOR

   SVP Publishing

   700 Lavaca St., Suite 900

   Austin, TX  78701

   512-744-4308

   512-744-4334 fax

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, May 12, 2009 11:35 PM
   To: 'Secure List'; EurAsia AOR
   Subject: INSIGHT - RUSSIA - monster metals merger?
   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
    
   One set of the talks underway are for Deripaska, Potanin, Rybolovlev,
   Usmanov, Zyuzin and Abramovich to pool their assets and the allow the
   government to step in some sort of way. Of course many will be lost,
   crushed or placed as heads of the new creation. This is just one plan
   Putin threw at the olis though it isn't definite yet. I'm sure you can
   guess who would be head of the new company.
    
   LG: this would merge Rusal, Norilsk, Evraz, Mechel, Urakali and
   Metaloinvest.....
   MOSTER METALS COMPANY COMING TO EAT A CITY NEAR YOUUUU.
    
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-05-13 06:36:32",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1222809_re-insight-russia-monster-metals-merger-.html","","","goodrich@stratfor.com,eurasia@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
1223659,"merging turkey codes
","The following are sources you both use.  I am going to merge their
codes.  Please use the following codes for these people from here on out.

Bilici TR304
Kenes TR303
Sengonul TR312
Unuvar TR314
Demir TR325
Kabasakali TR324

-- 
Jennifer Richmond
China Director
Director of International Projects
richmond@stratfor.com
(512) 744-4324
www.stratfor.com
","2011-08-29 16:47:12",1,"2012-03-03 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1223659_merging-turkey-codes-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,anya.alfano@stratfor.com,emre.dogru@stratfor.com,meredith.friedman@stratfor.com",""
1225569,"Re: [EastAsia] China - Coal
","See insight sent from CN65 last night.  Good stuff.  Let me know what 
else you need.

On 8/24/11 4:28 AM, Zhixing Zhang wrote:
> heard from news that stockpile have significantly dropped in the 
> recent two weeks due to summer peak, and that it would affect winter 
> power usage.
>
> knowing that we have clients interested in the issue, let us know if 
> we need to follow this or do any updates.

-- 
Jennifer Richmond
China Director
Director of International Projects
STRATFOR
w: 512-744-4324
c: 512-422-9335
richmond@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com
","2011-08-24 12:31:31",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1225569_re-eastasia-china-coal-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","","eastasia@stratfor.com,melissa.taylor@stratfor.com",""
1226848,"INSIGHT - CN 65 Re: [OS] CHINA/MINING/GV - Imported iron ore supplies
 decline in China
","   **In response to the story below that imported iron ore supplies have
   declined.  Note that this report and the Commodore report the EA team was
   reviewing yesterday contradict, as the source notes.

   SOURCE: via CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: A - concrete data from shipbrokers say otherwise
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   And almost immediately, the propaganda begins.  The article below, based
   on the new IO index says:

     \"Xinhua analysts said sharp declines of billet price and weakening
     demand for iron ore have led to declines in imported iron ore prices.
     \"Steel companies have also cut their bid prices for iron ore due to weak
     demand for steel in the coming winter and the relatively large amount of
     remaining stock, according to Xinhua analysts.\"

   Compare this with the report you sent me today from Commodore Research,
   which stated:

     \"As we have continued to stress in recent reports, spot availability of
     capesize vessels in the Atlantic basin has remained very tight. This
     tightness, combined with an increase in congestion at Australian and
     Brazilian ports (discussed in greater detail on page 9), and an increase
     in Chinese iron ore demand has caused capesize rates to rebound.\"

   And this today from my shipbroker:

     \"Just to prove The Bears wrong, Owners counter attack picked up momentum
     yesterday, West Aussie ore miners, who were very quiet from Last Friday,
     entered the market with 'several cargoes' including 'spot spot'. This
     complimented the increased demand in The Atlantic the day before and
     with further pushing for loading Atlantic for TA and for
     fronthaul yesterday, we had a very sharp rise in spot rates across
     the board again, with The Bulls buying paper and pushing
     physicals hard.... 
     \"Exporters focus is on getting ships to sell as many tonnes as they can
     produce and get out of their ports on ships that fit their schedules
     (and mitigate congestion costs). The focus is not on whether they have
     to pay 'a few dollars more freight' to ship them. They can only of
     course do this if The Buyers focus remains to guarantee they can receive
     as much (ore and coal) as they need, which keeps FOB prices at record
     highs and freight rates at a relatively small percentage of delivered
     costs.\"

   Note very carefully the language in the Xinhua report.  It refers to
   Xinhua analysts opinions, but these are at clear variance from the data
   from shippers and shipbrokers.  If Chinese demand for IO is down, why are
   capesize charter rates up, and the number of stems fixed increasing, not
   decreasing?

     -------- Original Message --------

     Subject: [OS] CHINA/MINING/GV - Imported iron ore supplies decline in    
              China                                                           
        Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2011 19:45:00 +1000                                 

      
     Imported iron ore supplies decline in China
     English.news.cn   2011-09-27 17:26:54     FeedbackPrintRSS

     http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/business/2011-09/27/c_131163147.htm

     BEIJING, Sept. 27 (Xinhua) -- Inventories of iron ore at 25 of China's
     major sea ports dropped to 94.17 million metric tons in the week ending
     on Sept. 26, according to the Xinhua-China Iron Ore Price Index, which
     was released on Tuesday.

     Last week's supplies of imported iron ore were 320,000 metric tons lower
     than that of the previous week, down 0.34 percent week-on-week,
     according to the index.

     The price index for 63.5-percent-purity and 58-percent-purity iron ore
     imports both dropped by one point to 186 points and 155 points,
     respectively.

     Xinhua analysts said sharp declines of billet price and weakening demand
     for iron ore have led to declines in imported iron ore prices.

     Steel companies have also cut their bid prices for iron ore due to weak
     demand for steel in the coming winter and the relatively large amount of
     remaining stock, according to Xinhua analysts.

     However, price corrections for imported iron ore will be limited as a
     result of rising shipping costs, the analysts said.
","2011-09-27 13:23:02",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1226848_insight-cn-65-re-os-china-mining-gv-imported-iron-ore.html","richmond@stratfor.com","","watchofficer@stratfor.com",""
1227700,"RE: Al-Qaeda supporters working at strategic sites  ** note Paki cops..
","   Himmler said the same thing. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, April 30, 2007 2:36 PM
   To: 'Fred Burton'; analysts@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Al-Qaeda supporters working at strategic sites ** note Paki
   cops..
   This thing needs to be handled delicately and you need the right people
   involved.
    
    

   -------

   Kamran Bokhari

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   Senior Analyst, Middle East & South Asia

   T: 202-251-6636

   F: 905-785-7985

   bokhari@stratfor.com

   www.stratfor.com

    

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, April 30, 2007 3:34 PM
   To: 'Kamran Bokhari'; analysts@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Al-Qaeda supporters working at strategic sites ** note Paki
   cops..

   Lovely.  Time for internment camps. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari [mailto:bokhari@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, April 30, 2007 2:33 PM
   To: 'Fred Burton'; analysts@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: Al-Qaeda supporters working at strategic sites ** note Paki
   cops..
   Huge issue, which I had raised when Bakri a few months back had said that
   the Muslims working in British security services would eventually wage the
   future jihad.
    
    

   -------

   Kamran Bokhari

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   Senior Analyst, Middle East & South Asia

   T: 202-251-6636

   F: 905-785-7985

   bokhari@stratfor.com

   www.stratfor.com

    

   -----Original Message-----
   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, April 30, 2007 3:30 PM
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Subject: Al-Qaeda supporters working at strategic sites ** note Paki
   cops..

   By Ben Leapman, Home Affairs Correspondent, Sunday Telegraph (London)
   29/04/2007
    
   http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/04/29/nterr29.xml
    
   Suspects linked to al-Qaeda have obtained sensitive jobs in vital
   industries that could be the target of terrorist attacks, it can be
   revealed.  The individuals were uncovered by police and the security
   services in operations designed to protect key British sites such as
   transport hubs, power stations and the water supply.  Security chiefs
   believe that they may have become radicalised while already in employment,
   thus evading the strict vetting procedure for applicants for
   security-sensitive posts.  Following the discovery, the Government is to
   draft new guidelines for companies to strengthen systems for monitoring
   staff. Employees will be encouraged to report any concerns they may have
   about suspicious behaviour by colleagues.  Other elements of the critical
   national infrastructure that the Government has drawn up include plans to
   defend telecommunications, food supply, finance, key health facilities and
   the emergency services... MI5 is understood to have unmasked al-Qaeda
   sympathisers who joined its ranks during a recruitment drive aimed at
   young British Muslims, following the London bombings. At least three
   Metropolitan Police officers have also been investigated over visits they
   made to Pakistan, according to the Association of Muslim Police...
    
    
","2007-04-30 21:37:38",1,"2012-03-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1227700_re-al-qaeda-supporters-working-at-strategic-sites-note-paki.html","burton@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com,bokhari@stratfor.com",""
1227863,"RE: Humint - Israel and Syria
","Keep in mind that the final Winograd report is to be released in July, and
that's going to be much, much worse. Kadima knows Olmert is bad news, but
they have to also counter a Bibi alternative

Bibi is leading the polls -- In a separate question on who they would vote
for, the poll found that 26% of Israelis believe that Likud chairman
Binyamin Netanyahu should be prime minister, followed by Foreign Minister
Tzipi Livni (9%), former prime minister Ehud Barak (6%), Labor MK Ami Ayalon
(5%), Vice Premier Shimon Peres (4%), Israel Beiteinu leader Avigdor
Lieberman (3%), billionaire Arkadi Gaydamak (2%) and Peretz (1%). Olmert
received zero percent in the poll, Channel 2 said. 

Also, Netanyahu has set up a special team of Russian-speaking advisers to
prepare to compete for Russian votes in the next election. 

The team, which meets every few weeks, includes Benny Briskin, who served as
an adviser to Netanyahu while he was prime minister. It also includes Dr.
Zeev Hanin, a sociologist from Bar-Ilan University, Dr. Alex Feldman, an
expert on opinion polls, and Likud spokesman Dmitry Shimelfarb. 
 

-----Original Message-----
From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@mycingular.blackberry.net] 
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 3:10 PM
To: Fred Burton; 'Reva Bhalla'; Analysts
Subject: Re: Humint - Israel and Syria

Its like american politics. Hillary can say its her. Doesn't mean shit until
she has it. Its like consulting the fbi on who the next president will be.
They know what's in the papers. 

This stuff is all over the israeli papers. No secret that bibi seems to have
it except that he's as loved as hillary. But olmert is finished. 
-- 
Sent via Cingular Xpress Mail with Blackberry     

-----Original Message-----
From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
Date: Tue, 1 May 2007 15:07:45 
To:\"'Reva Bhalla'\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>,       \"'Analysts'\"
<analysts@stratfor.com>
Subject: RE: Humint - Israel and Syria


BiBi (protect) has said that Olmert is \"finished\" Thursday.  

In looking at my notes, there may be an interim short term replacement,
however, it looks like BiBi is the one that wants the job very badly.  He
said, \"it's mine, I've shored up Likud. Thank you Fred for your support of
Israel...\"   

I don't know Izzy politics as to others who may be the short term fix.     

-----Original Message-----
From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 3:01 PM
To: 'Analysts'
Subject: RE: Humint - Israel and Syria

So to clarify,  Bibi is implying that Olmert has privately indicated that
he's resigning on Thursday?

-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 3:00 PM
To: 'Reva Bhalla'; friedman@mycingular.blackberry.net; 'Peter Zeihan';
'Analysts'
Subject: RE: Humint - Israel and Syria


Thursday from BiBi (protect)  

-----Original Message-----
From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 2:57 PM
To: friedman@mycingular.blackberry.net; 'Fred Burton'; 'Peter Zeihan';
'Analysts'
Subject: RE: Humint - Israel and Syria

The reason you're hearing he's going out thursdya is b/c that's the day the
massive opposition political protests are planned. They're trying to get
everyone committed to the idea that Olmert needs to be kicked out now. I
don't think Olmert's gonna last long, but he's not going to duck out that
quickly

-----Original Message-----
From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@mycingular.blackberry.net]
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 2:55 PM
To: Fred Burton; Peter Zeihan; Analysts
Subject: Re: Humint - Israel and Syria

And if not thursday then wednesday and if not wednesday then sunday. 
-- 
Sent via Cingular Xpress Mail with Blackberry     

-----Original Message-----
From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
Date: Tue, 1 May 2007 14:53:29 
To:<friedman@mycingular.blackberry.net>,       \"'Peter Zeihan'\"
<zeihan@stratfor.com>,       \"'Analysts'\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
Subject: RE: Humint - Israel and Syria

New info -- 

Olmert is out on Thursday.

From my lips to your ears.  

 

-----Original Message-----
From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@mycingular.blackberry.net]
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 1:17 PM
To: Peter Zeihan; Fred Burton; Analysts
Subject: Re: Humint - Israel and Syria

That's open but there is no one except bibi to take over. Perez is finished.
Peres is too old. And barak is even less liked than bibi. 



-- 
Sent via Cingular Xpress Mail with Blackberry     

-----Original Message-----
From: \"Peter Zeihan\" <zeihan@stratfor.com>
Date: Tue, 1 May 2007 13:11:14
To:<burton@stratfor.com>, \"'Analysts'\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
Subject: RE: Humint - Israel and Syria

Unseat in an election? Or unseat as PM?


-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 1:08 PM
To: Analysts
Subject: Humint - Israel and Syria


From an Israeli source who spoke to Netenyahu today:

BiBi believes he can unseat Olmert and there is a movement underway to do
so.  

Source also advises the IDF cannot protect the Golan and the IDF believes
the Syrians are making plans to take it. 




  
","2007-05-01 22:26:44",1,"2012-03-27 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1227863_re-humint-israel-and-syria-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,analysts@stratfor.com,friedman@mycingular.blackberry.net",""
1227888,"RE: HUMINT - MOSSAD Covert Assistance to Saudi Intelligence
","   Fred attended budget meeting yesterday.  Will submit shrinks invoice to
   Don for services rendered.   He's pricey, but I get a volume discount
   because he is studying me for a long term paper on \"Dashboards, Mental
   Health and Meetings.\"   Ink blots of Hoppman, Jonardi, Sunshine, Howlet,
   Hargas and other assorted snake oil were shown.   Under doctors orders,
   will not attend any more.  These ruses in the future will not work.   Any
   gathering of more then me, I consider a meeting. 
    
   Either we want these towel heads as a client of not.  I can also have
   anybody we send to Riyadh beheaded.  Is Moore still on the dole? 
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Todd Hanna [mailto:hanna@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2007 9:32 AM
   To: 'Fred Burton'; 'Aaric Eisenstein'; 'Debora Henson';
   kuykendall@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: HUMINT - MOSSAD Covert Assistance to Saudi Intelligence
   I'm guessing a trip to Riyadh is not in the budget. 
    

   Todd Hanna

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   T: 512-744-4080

   F: 512-744-4334

   hanna@stratfor.com

   www.stratfor.com

    

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2007 9:32 AM
   To: 'Todd Hanna'; 'Aaric Eisenstein'; 'Debora Henson';
   kuykendall@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: HUMINT - MOSSAD Covert Assistance to Saudi Intelligence
   Might require a trip to Riyadh, but he would start with the Saudi
   Embassy.  
    
   Didn't know what Janka had covered or what he has up his sleeve with these
   camel jockies. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Todd Hanna [mailto:hanna@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2007 9:29 AM
   To: 'Fred Burton'; 'Aaric Eisenstein'; 'Debora Henson';
   kuykendall@stratfor.com
   Subject: RE: HUMINT - MOSSAD Covert Assistance to Saudi Intelligence
   If it's that easy for Mike, I say tell him to have at it.  Debora should
   be involved as well, for pricing considerations. 
    

   Todd Hanna

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   T: 512-744-4080

   F: 512-744-4334

   hanna@stratfor.com

   www.stratfor.com

    

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2007 7:52 AM
   To: 'Todd Hanna'; 'Aaric Eisenstein'; 'Debora Henson';
   kuykendall@stratfor.com
   Subject: FW: HUMINT - MOSSAD Covert Assistance to Saudi Intelligence
   Have we got the Saudi Foreign Ministry or intel service as sub clients? 
   If not, suggest we send Mike Parks, who is good friends with Prince
   Bandar, to sign them up.  $100,000 deal is nothing to these folks.  I
   think Les Janka also has contacts with these sleezy arsehole ragheads
   (Fred's personal assessment.) 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2007 7:46 AM
   To: 'Analysts'
   Subject: HUMINT - MOSSAD Covert Assistance to Saudi Intelligence
   MOSSAD is using Nicosia, Cyprus as a primary transit hub into Riyadh, to
   assist the Saudi intelligence services with intelligence collection and
   advice on Iran.  Sources advised the Saudis are playing both sides of the
   fence -- with the jihadists and the Israelis -- for fear that the U.S.
   does not have a handle on either.  
    
   Several enterprising MOSSAD officers, both past and present, are making a
   bundle selling the Saudis everything from security equipment, intelligence
   and consultation. 
    
    
","2007-05-02 16:46:09",1,"2012-03-06 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1227888_re-humint-mossad-covert-assistance-to-saudi-intelligence-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","kuykendall@stratfor.com,henson@stratfor.com,hanna@stratfor.com,aaric.eisenstein@stratfor.com",""
1229775,"One more news from Sabah on Stratfor
","   A well-known columnist of our confed partner Sabah, Emre Akoz, mentioned
   Stratfor and George in his article today. Akoz says he wishes those who
   are paranoiac about Turkish foreign policy and AKP could listen to the
   founder of American intelligence and strategic thinking center Stratfor,
   political scientist George Friedman, so that Friedman could tell them how
   Turkey will become one of the major global powers in the future.
   There is no direct reference in his article to the G's weekly on Turkey. I
   thanked him for his kinds words and sent him G's weekly on Turkey.
   Cheers,
   Emre

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-11-26 11:55:54",1,"2012-03-09 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1229775_one-more-news-from-sabah-on-stratfor-.html","emre.dogru@stratfor.com","","mfriedman@stratfor.com,richmond@stratfor.com,kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com,confed@stratfor.com",""
1230660,"Re: RESEARCH REQUEST - Brazil & Colombia sign a hot pursuit treaty
 of 50 km
","   Hey - This is kinda old. Haven't updated since I was an intern doing FARC
   but just in case it is useful - Here is a map approximating the locations
   of the FARC blocs and a breakdown of the Eastern bloc fronts - no. of
   combatants, etc. - that border Brazil.

                       FARC - Eastern Bloc                                    
        Commanders: Jorge Briceno Suarez aka \"Mono Jojoy\"                     
              \"Granobles\" aka German Briceno Suarez                           
              \"Romana\" aka Henry Castellanos Garzon                           
      Front     Department   Commander     No. of      Recent   Notes         
                                         Combantants  Activity  
                                                     Commander  believed to   
                            \"Cesar\" aka              \"Doris     be holding    
                            Gerardo                  Adriana\"   political     
   1st Front   Guaviare     Antonio              400 aka Luz    hostages      
                            Aguilar                  Dary Conde including     
                                                     arrested   Betancourt    
                                                     in 2008    
                            \"Willington\"                                      
   7th Front   Meta         aka Carlos           200             
                            Julio Vargas 
                            Medina       
                            \"El Marrano\"                                      
   10th Front  Arauca       aka Carlos           200             
                            Julio Avila  
                            \"El Negro                \"El Negro  considered to 
                            Acacio\" aka              Acacio\"    be the main   
   16th Front  Vichada      Tomas Molina         300 killed in  drug          
                            Caracas                  2007       trafficking   
                                                                front         
                            \"Hugo\" aka               \"Hugo\"                   
   22nd Front  Cundinamarca Wilmer               120 captured    
                            Antonio                  in 2003    
                            Marin Cano   
                            \"Hugo                    \"Hugo                    
                            Sandoval                 Sandoval   
   26th Front  Meta         Ruiz\" aka            130 Ruiz\"       
                            Angel Oveido             killed in  
                            Yara                     2007       
                                                     \"El                      
                            \"Jorge 40\"               Medico\" or in charge of  
   27th Front  Meta         aka Gener            200 \"El Tio\"   financial     
                            Garcia                   captured   flow
                            Molina                   March 27,  
                                                     2008       
                            \"Julian                                           
               Casanare &   Arevalo\" aka 
   28th Front  Boyaca       Aristipo             120             
                            Alponte      
                            Alvarado     
                                                                has not been  
   31st Front  Meta                              120            notable       
                                                                active        
   38th Front  Casanare &   \"Efrain              100                          
               Boyaca       Mendez\"      
   39th Frony  Vichada                           120                          
   40th Front  Meta                              350                          
                                                     \"El                      
                            \"Geovany                 Campesino\" 
                            Rodriguez\"               aka Jose   
   42nd Front  Cundinamarca aka Ernesto          110 Nerup       
                            Orjuela                  Reyes Pena 
                            Tovar                    killed     
                                                     2007       
                            \"Jorge 40\"                                        
   43rd Front  Meta         aka Gener            150             
                            Garcia       
                            Molina       
   44th Front  Meta                              120                          
                            \"Rafael                                           
               Norte de     Gutierrez\"   
   45th Front  Santander &  aka Luis             150             
               Boyaca       Eduardo      
                            Marin        
                            \"Hermides\"               \"Hermides\"               
                            aka Jose                 captured   
   51st Front  Cundinamarca Paramenides           80 in 2002,    
                            Castro                   no recent  
                                                     activity   
               Cundinamarca \"El Zarco\"                                        
   52nd Front  & Boyaca     aka Manuel           120             
                            Sierra       
                                                     \"Eliecer\"                
                            \"El Zarco\"               aka        
   53rd Front  Cundinamarca aka Manuel           120 Bertulfo    
               & Meta       Sierra                   Garcia     
                                                     captured   
                                                     in 2005    
   54th Front  Cundinamarca                       50            Believed to   
                                                                be terminated 
                            \"Nelson                             Responsible   
                            Robles\" aka                         for the       
   55th Front  Cundinamarca Julio                 70            majority of   
                            Enrique                             FARC activity 
                            Rincon Rico                         in Bogota     
                            \"Reuben\" aka                                      
                            Armando                              
                            Barbosa      
                            Tovar        
                                                     \"Jeronimo                
                                                     Aljure\"    
   56th Front  Casanare &                         80 aka Jorge   
               Boyaca                                Martinez   
                                                     captured   
                                                     in 2004    
   Antonio                  \"Chucho\" aka             Chuco      seeks to      
   Narino      Cundinamarca Marbel                50 captured   operate in    
   Front                    Zamora                   October    Bogota        
                                                     29, 2008   
   Columns and Companies in the Eastern Bloc                                  
   Front       Department   Commander    No. of      Recent     Notes         
                                         Combantants Activity   
                                                                Mobile Column 
   Alfonso     Arauca                            120            - Faction of  
   Castellanos                                                  the 10th      
                                                                Front         
   Juan Jose   Guaviare                          250            Mobile Column 
   Rondon      
   Special     former DMZ                         80            Mobile Column 
   Forces      
   Company                                                                    
   Reinel      former DMZ                         80             
   Mendez      
   Company                                                                    
   Esteban     former DMZ                         80             
   Ramirez     
   Company                                                                    
   Manuela     Cundinamarca                       50             
   Beltran     
   Company                                                                    
   Abelardo    Cundinamarca                       40             
   Romero      
   Company                                                                    
   Joaquin     Cundinamarca                      140             
   Ballen      
   Company Che former DMZ                        120                          
   Guevara     

   Kristen Cooper wrote:

     Hey Karen - Below and attached is what I was able to pull together on
     Brazil's military presence in the Amazon region. Let me know if there is
     more you need.

     Brazil Military - Amazon Region

      

     Brazilian Military

     Army = Amazonian Command (Manaus, Amazonas) - 8th Military Region

     Navy = HQ IX Manaus, Amazonas

      

      

     Army = 120,000 + 70,000 conscripts = 190,000 total

     Jungle Infantry =

       o 5 bridgades
       o 15 battalions

      

     State police for Amazon and border patrol under army control.

      

     Navy = 67,000

     Military Command of the 9th Naval District

     Command of the fleet of Amazonas

     ComFlotAM = 5 patrol boats

      

                             Amazonas  Command - AM

                http://www.exercito.gov.br/06OMs/indiceom/am.htm

     Command of the Military Command of the Amazon - Manaus Cmdo CMA
     www.cma.eb.mil.br 

     Command of Border - Rio Negro and 5th Infantry Battalion of the Jungle -
     Sao Gabriel da Cachoeira Cmdo R Fron Black / 5 A
     www.cfrn5bis.eb.mil.br  

     Command of Border - Solimoes and 8th Infantry Battalion of the Jungle -
     Tabatinga Cmdo Fron Solimoes / 8 A www.8bis.eb.mil.br 

     Command of the 2nd Infantry Brigade of the Jungle - Sao Gabriel da
     Cachoeira Cmdo 2nd Bda Inf Sl

     Command of the 2nd Grouping of Engineering - Manaus Cmdo 2 gpt E

     Command of the 12th Military Region - Manaus Cmdo 12th RM

     Command of the 16th Infantry Brigade of the Jungle - Tefe Cmdo 16th Bda
     Inf Sl

     Regional Commission for Works of the 12th Military Region - Manaus
     CRO/12

     Company Command Military Command of the Amazon - Manaus Cia Cmdo CMA

     Company Command of the 2nd Infantry Brigade of the Jungle - Sao Gabriel
     da Cachoeira Cia Cmdo 2nd Bda Inf Sl

     Company of the 2nd Command Grouping of Engineering - Manaus Cmdo Cia 2
     gpt E

     Company Command of the 12th Military Region - Manaus Cmdo Cia 12th RM

     Company Command 16th Infantry Brigade of the Jungle - Tefe

     Cia Cmdo 16th Bda Inf Sl

     1st Company of Statement of Jungle - Manaus 1st Cia With Sl
     1st Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Parintins 1st Del SM/29
     of CSM
     1st Infantry Battalion of the Jungle - Manaus 1 A

     2nd Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Itacoatiara 2nd Del
     SM/29 of CSM

     3rd Special Forces Company - Manaus 3rd Cia Esp F
     3rd Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Manaus 3rd Del SM/29 of
     CSM

     4th Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Tefe 4th Del SM/29 of
     CSM

     4th Division of Survey - Manaus 4th DL www.4dl.eb.mil.br
     4th Battalion of the Army Aviation - Manaus 4 B Av Ex
     www.4esqdavex.eb.mil.br 
     4 Center for Telematics Area - Manaus 4 CTA www.cma.eb.mil.br  
     5th Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Tabatinga 5th Del SM/29
     of CSM

     6th Precinct of the Military Service of the 31st CSM - Humaita 6th Del
     SM/31 of CSM

     7th Precinct of the 29th Military Service CSM - Barcelos 7th Del SM/29
     of CSM

     12th Company of Guards - Manaus 12th Cia Gd
     12th Police Company of the Army - Manaus 12th Cia PE
     12th Inspectorate of Army Finance And Accounting - Manaus 12th ICF Ex
     12th Battalion of Supply - Manaus 12 Sup B

     16th Logistics Base - 16th Tefe Log Ba
     16 Platoon of Communications of Jungle - Tefe
       16 Pel With SL

     17th Infantry Battalion of the Jungle - Tefe 17 BIS

     21 -a Companhia de Engenharia de Construc,ao - Sao Gabriel da Cachoeira
     21 -a Cia And CNST

     22 Police Platoon of the Army - San Gabriel da Cachoeira 22 Pel PE

     29th district of Military Service - Manaus 29th CSM www.29csm.eb.mil.br 

     34 Police Platoon of the Army - Tefe 34 Pel PE

     54 Infantry Battalion of the Jungle - Humaita 54 A www.54bis.eb.mil.br

      

      

     Amazon Command Logistics

      

     1 - The Challenge of the jungle
     The Amazon Jungle contains nearly a third of the planet's tropical
     forests. It is a true \"ocean of trees.\" large and dangerous. She is so
     huge in fact, that the equivalent cross-cross the Atlantic Ocean between
     Africa and the Americas.

     The extensive and dense Amazonian forest is endowed with huge mesh
     basin, poor road network, high levels of humidity, rainfall and constant
     risk of tropical diseases, and it is the major obstacle to the logistics
     operations, either in operations or in support for organizations
     Military based in the area. There is the world no region so inhospitable
     and frightening as the Tropical Jungle.

     The 8th Military Region (8th RM) has a logistics area of responsibility
     of more than 1,500,000 km2, which represents approximately 18% of
     national territory. In real challenge to meet your Organicac,oes
     Military (OM) contingent, are employed means of the Brazilian Air Force
     (FAB), and organic car ferries and the 8th of Supply Depot (8 Sup D).

     The adversity of the environment directly influence the performance of
     man and material. The deterioration of the items of supply is a constant
     and real threat that demands the taking of special measures to preserve,
     such as conducting periodic purge of the food, the climate of depots and
     warehouses and preventive maintenance of stocked items.

     Besides these, other challenges have been defeated by the 8th RM in 1997
     to provide the necessary support to the OM under their responsibility,
     such as:

     - Creation of the lining of Maraba Hospital, opened in October 1997;

     - Production, distribution and installation of seven dental offices for
     OM;

     - Reequipping of doctors;

     - Collection and distribution of two modules of boats tactics for the
     2nd Infantry Battalion of the Jungle (2 A - Bethlehem) and the 52
     Infantry Battalion of the Jungle (52 A - Maraba-PA);

     - Installation of a ramp to facilitate loading and unloading, the vessel
     floating Codajas and Logistics;

     - Rationalization of the distribution of quotas of fuel to OM, offering
     economy and allowing the supply of petrol and diesel to April to March
     1998;

     - Reducing the rate of pre-availability of vehicles, by using funds from
     the Department of Transportation;

     - Fosfatizac,ao of 1880 OM regional arms of Arsenal in the War of Rio de
     Janeiro, with employment of aircraft for the transport of FAB;

     - Making operational ration alternative, using items of food in the
     trade, with great economy and good acceptance by the troop maneuvers in
     the Strait of brief and the State of Amapa;

     - Increased storage capacity of the cold chambers of OM further from
     Bethlehem and

     - The use of C-130 aircraft of the Support Plan Amazon, for carrying
     supplies, and the C-95 of the agreement with the FAB, to carry the team
     Regional Park Maintenance / 8 (Pq R Mnt / 8), General Hospital of Belem
     (HGeBe) and Regional Commission for Works / 8 (CRO / 8), and perform any
     evacuations in order to meet the entire area of responsibility of the
     8th MR.

     2 - Insulation
     8th in the RM, the largest population density are at the margins of the
     main roads and rivers: Imperatriz (MA), Maraba, Altamira, Itaituba and
     Santarem, in Para

     Climatic conditions, the precariousness of the roads, particularly the
     Transamazon and the great distances inland to overcome, this isolation
     makes it the most difficult one for the completion of logistical
     support.

     3 - Large distances
     The road infrastructure priority, traditionally, means river, which are
     considered the most viable for logistical support to troops in Macapa,
     Santarem, and Itaituba Altamira, drawing up the routes of the network
     hidroviaria of the Amazon Basin.

     Addressing the troops in cantoned Oiapoque (AP) is a special challenge.
     The activity can be done by sea, rising up after the river of the same
     name or, as is currently done by the combination of the waterway to
     Macapa, the road of 620 kilometers through the BR-156, which connects
     one the capital city of Oiapoque, or by air.

     The roads south of Para, in theory, allow any support to the troops
     positioned along the highway Transamazon, ie Maraba, Altamira and
     Itaituba. However, its lack of traffic during periods of rain
     particularly difficult logistical support for these two cities,
     requiring the employment of means of inland 8 Sup D and / or aircraft of
     the FAB for the transport of supplies.

     The following table summarizes the distances to be overcome and the
     means employed by 8 Sup D to support the troops in charge of logistics
     8th RM

     VENUE OF OM Road (Km) Anv C-130 (h) Ferry (days)
     Oiapoque - 1:40 5
     Macapa - 1:00 2
     Santarem - 1:30 5
     Itaituba - 2:00 6
     Altamira - 1:20 3
     Maraba 668 - --
     Empress 578 - --

     4 - The limitations of the means of communications and transport
     The communications environment in the jungle suffer effects of weather
     such as torrential rain, humidity, heat and limitations offered by the
     scarcity of roads, poor visibility at ground curled in some areas and
     the dense vegetation.

     However, the 8th MRI was able to test with success, some communications
     equipment during the \"Operation Brief\" and \"Operation Amapa\", held at
     the end of 1997.

     We used the following equipment: TW 7000; generating solar power,
     portable generator, automatic telephone exchange, telegraph handlers,
     all radio EB-11 ERC 131/TPX720 to link earth - air, maintaining contact
     with military aircraft to 50 km away , and the same at 1,000 feet
     altitude, TW 2000 (run); KENWOOD with laptop or desktop, integrating
     radio-wire (IRF) and the use of brief radio station for the transmission
     of messages pre-established.

     The question of means of transport to be used in large-scale
     displacement is closely linked to the isolation of the units to be
     supported, the volume of material to be transported and the speed you
     wish. You can say that the mesh of the Eastern Amazon river meets the
     needs of access roads to large for the implementation of logistical
     support. However, although significant, the road is of poor quality,
     particularly in the BR-230 and 156, during the rainy months.

     With this, the growing importance of maintenance of vehicles, the use of
     ferries and FAB for the logistical support to always reach the end of
     the line.

     5 - Support to civilian populations and indigenous
     The Army, through its military organizations (OM) distributed along the
     borders, major rivers and roads, providing essential support to
     communities and indigenous civilians.

     The 8th Military Region supports this activity, providing conditions for
     the functioning of hospitals to trim jobs and health care, both in
     personnel and in equipment and medicines.

     With the participation of the Region, the OM able to support various
     operations performing the type Civic Action Committee (ACIS) and joint
     campaigns with the Prefecture of the various towns in visits in the
     specialized field of medical health, dental and laboratory, with the
     objective to raise community spirit between the army and the local
     community.

     These activities are quite common, particularly in more isolated and
     Military Organizations, Santarem, Itaituba, north of Altamira and
     Cleveland.

      

      

                      Amazon Naval Command - 9th District

                           http://www.mar.mil.br/9dn/

      

     Organizations subordinate to the Military Command of the 9th Naval
     District

       o Command of the fleet of Amazonas
       o Capitania the Amazon River West
       o Battalion Operations Ribeirinha
       o Capitania River to Tabatinga
       o Naval Station Rio Negro
       o Deposit Naval Manaus
       o 3rd Squadron of Helicopters General Employment

      

     OM subordinated to ComFlotAM

       o P-30 Patrol Boat River Roraima
       o P-31 Patrol Boat River Rondonia
       o P-32 Patrol Boat River Amapa
       o P-20 Patrol Boat River Teixeira
       o P-21 Patrol Boat River Raposo Tavares
       o U-16 Hospital Doctor Ship Assistance Montenegro
       o U-18 Ship Assistance Hospital Oswaldo Cruz
       o U-19 Ship Assistance Hospital Carlos Chagas

      

     OM subordinated to CFAOC
     River station of Porto Velho
       Agency of River Tefe
       Agency of River Eirunepe
       Agency of Boca do Acre River
       Agency of River Guajara Mirim
       Agency of Itacoatiara River
       Agency of Parintins River

      

     Karen Hooper wrote:

       1) What are the most prominent (or any), non-Afghanistan/Pakistan hot
       pursuit agreements between countries around the world?
       2) Need a status update on Brazilian forces deployed to the Amazon
       regions: Where are they? How many are there?

       Priority 1

       Please let me know who takes this.

       It might be best to split the two questions up.

       Thanks!
       --
       Karen Hooper
       Latin America Analyst
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Kristen Cooper
 Researcher
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com
 512.744.4093 - office
 512.619.9414 - cell
 kristen.cooper@stratfor.com

 --
 Kristen Cooper
 Researcher
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com
 512.744.4093 - office
 512.619.9414 - cell
 kristen.cooper@stratfor.com
","2009-03-12 16:59:41",1,"2012-08-02 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1230660_re-research-request-brazil-and-colombia-sign-a-hot-pursuit.html","kristen.cooper@stratfor.com","","hooper@stratfor.com,nathan.hughes@stratfor.com,researchers@stratfor.com","attach/107/107203_clip_image002.gif"
1234734,"PAID SOURCE NETWORK
","   Here is the first cut of the proposed system. It lays out the basic
   procedural elements. Let us discuss, critique, and refine it.

    

                Proposed System to Develop a Paid Source Network

                                        

   Our efforts to develop into a true global intelligence company which
   offers its clients, analyses and forecasts, better than anyone else,
   requires, among other things, a reliable network of well-placed sources.
   What this means is that we will have to increasingly move towards
   developing paid sources. Obviously, our financial limitations will
   determine how fast we can achieve this goal.

    

   As of now we have very few paid sources who we hired as and when we came
   to know of them and we determined that we needed to have them and that we
   could from a financial standpoint. This approach served our needs for
   quite some time but now that we are aggressively moving towards global
   operations it is essential that we have a system by which we enhance our
   source capabilities. Such a system should allow us to uniformly develop
   the network across the various aors.

    

   As each aor enhances its understanding of various parts of its respective
   region, it is only natural that it will come across the need for paid
   sources. Each aor head working with the corresponding field analyst will
   identify the need for a source in x country or y region. These two senior
   analysts - given that they are jointly responsible for maintaining
   situational awareness - will determine the need based on the geopolitical
   significance of the area/issue.

    

   Once there is a consensus within the aor that having a paid source in a
   given area is critical to their operational needs, the aor will submit a
   request to the Vice-President of Tactical Intelligence (VP-TI) with all
   the necessary details justifying their specific requirement. The VP-TI,
   working with the CFO and CEO, would already have developed a budget to
   address the needs of all the aors within the analytical group, would then
   coordinate with the relevant field analyst and the CEO in reviewing the
   request. Whether or not a particular request will be approved will be
   based on the strategic priorities of the company, financial bandwidth,
   which aor takes precedence at a given point in time, and availability of
   reliable sources.

    

   Once an approval has been issued, the VP-TI will then work with the
   relevant field analyst to identify and process suitable candidates for the
   position. The field analyst will most likely have at least one candidate
   already in the pipeline and will provide the details (identity,
   background, occupation, affiliations, location, etc) of the candidate to
   the VP-TI. While the VP-TI is the one who will decide on whether or not
   person A will be hired as a paid source, he will be heavily dependent upon
   input from the field analyst to make his decision.

    

   The final stage is one where compensation will be negotiated with the
   prospective source. The VP-TI will let the field analyst know what the
   company can offer, which will then be relayed via the field analyst to the
   source. This proposed process is complete if and when the company and the
   source agree on a particular amount.  

     

    

    
","2009-12-10 14:47:29",1,"2012-03-03 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1234734_paid-source-network-.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","","excomm@stratfor.com",""
1239829,"fyi
","","2007-09-05 15:42:07",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1239829_fyi-.html","gfriedman@stratfor.com","","mfriedman@stratfor.com,eisenstein@stratfor.com","attach/107/107978_Intelligence Glossary.doc"
1243529,"Re: IMPORTANT: Folha and STRATFOR - a cooperation
","   Hi ladies.  After reading this convo it seems you've got everything under
   control.  I have a few extra thoughts below in blue in the contract.  Keep
   me posted on what the lawyer says.  On another note, Allison, asking the
   Latam team for weekly confed questions, if you are the POC is a great
   idea.  I do it with EA and Antonia does it for Eurasia.  There is no
   reason why you shouldn't do it as well.  As for making you the official
   POC, I also have no problem with that, but I'll let Meredith make the
   final call.  Reva, like Marko, has a lot on her plate, so I'm sure she
   would welcome going through you.  Not to mention you are the best choice
   in terms of language.  I do believe that Reva is using Paulo for a lot of
   her confed work and I think that's beneficial.

   Cooperation Agreement between Strategic Forecasting, Inc. d/b/a Stratfor
   (\"STRATFOR\") and Empresa Folha da Manha S.A. (Folha de S.Paulo Newspaper)
   (\"Folha\")

    

   STRATFOR and Folha would like to form a collaboration in which
   information, reports and opinions will be shared.

    

   This agreement will remain force for a period of 12 months commencing on
   June 01, 2011 unless earlier terminated with its provisions and ending on
   June 01, 2012.  

   As already noted I don't see this as a major problem but regardless of
   whether or not we keep this clause, we should make sure that they
   understand this is more of an MOU than an official contract.  That said, I
   do understand, Allison, that we may have to be a bit more flexible in
   dealing with Latam as they like to formalize things.  This seems to be a
   problem in some European countries too.

   Within this relationship STRATFOR will receive on demand (not sure what
   the need for this word is - just that we need to specifically request?
    One of the things that I explain to our potential POCs is that we expect
   communication to flow both ways about once a week and more if there is a
   crisis.  This is just informal dialogue via emails.) regular information
   or reports from Folha as well as breaking critical items of certain events
   of interest to STRATFOR. The information from Folha will come primarily
   from Brazil, but also information the organization receives from the
   surrounding region and globally. Regular information or reports to be
   provided by Folha are subject to availability. Folha must be mentioned as
   the source of information.  The first sentence is a given, but again I
   think we need to stress we are really just trying to maintain an open (and
   mutually beneficial!) dialogue and are not expecting them to write up
   formal reports for us.  On the second sentence, I agree with Meredith.  If
   we reprint in OV they should rest assured that not only will they be cited
   but we will also use their logo to link back to their website and also
   include a link to the piece.  As for the informal weekly dialogue, this is
   not cited if used within an analysis but filtered through our geopolitical
   methodology to help us to write the analysis.
    
   STRATFOR in return will share information on a regular basis with Folha in
   areas of its main focus. STRATFOR analysts will be available for
   interviews, sometimes exclusive, with Folha. STRATFOR will also provide
   complimentary accounts and access to www.stratfor.com for the journalists
   you designate which will allow them to quote from and reference STRATFOR
   analysis. 

    

   Our two free weekly analyses (Friedman on Geopolitics and Burton/Stewart
   on Security) may be republished by Folha at any time. Any other article
   from our paid content you wish to reprint in its entirety should be
   requested on a case by case basis. STRATFOR hereby warrants to Folha that
   it is the originator or is rightfully representing the originator of  the
   Materials; that is has the authority to grant to Folha all of the rights
   granted herein; and warrants the non-infringement of any patent,
   trademark, or copyright or any other right of a 3rd party on the
   Materials.  Here we just need to make sure that they have the proper lingo
   that Kyle has given us whenever they reprint: 
   \"This report is republished with the express permission of STRATFOR and
   may not be republished by any other parties without STRATFOR's consent.\"
    With a link back to the original (and let's also get them our logos so
   they can use it to link back to the site - I'll send these in a separate
   email.)

   Both STRATFOR and Folha will support each other with background
   information and research at the request of the other. The collaboration
   and cooperation between STRATFOR and Folha shall evolve over time as each
   group's priorities and focus shift and change.

    

   The points of contact between STRATFOR and Folha will primarily be
   STRATFOR's South America Analyst, Reva Bhalla and Folha's Administrative
   Manager, Raimundo Chaves da Cunha Junior.

    

    

   Signed: ____________________________   Date:________________
                 George Friedman, CEO STRATFOR

    

    

   Signed: _____________________________ Date: ________________

                 Raimundo Chaves da Cunha Junior, Administrative Manager,
   Folha

    

    

     No worries waiting a bit to hear back from the lawyer.  I agree with
     Antonia's line about how to cite us as STRATFOR for brand reocgnition
     being included in the contract. 

     As for using and citing their reports and citing, I can work to explain
     that in my response email.  Since we mentioned them reprinting our
     reports I can see where they may have gotten some confusion and assume
     we'd be looking to do the exact same thing.

     As for the logo, I made no mention of logos when I approached them.  The
     proposed contract and conversation had already  been handed to them
     before I had been updated on our new logo project.  Renato and I checked
     their website to see if there is any partnership page and there is
     none.  The closest thing is one that features Folha Group but those are
     obviously all part of the same parent company.  They do have a folha
     book store which we may be able to work with down the line. I have no
     idea how it works but they have a spot to sell books and we print books.
     http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/institucional/
     http://livraria.folha.com.br/

     I'll wait to hear more from you guys before passing back our version of
     the contract in response to theirs.  I'm excited about this one if it
     goes through :)
     Allison

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Meredith Friedman\" <mfriedman@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Antonia Colibasanu\" <colibasanu@stratfor.com>
     Cc: \"Allison Fedirka\" <allison.fedirka@stratfor.com>, \"Jennifer
     Richmond\" <richmond@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Monday, June 6, 2011 12:47:26 PM
     Subject: Re: IMPORTANT: Folha and STRATFOR - a cooperation

     I forwarded it to our lawyer to take a quick look at - I know he's
     traveling today so not sure when he'll get a chance to review it.
     Antonia's points are very good.

     On 6/6/11 12:39 PM, Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

       I'm really happy that Folha has accepted this being its size in
       Brazil! So from the marketing perspective, this is really good!

       On the first notes that their lawyers made - regarding the reports, I
       don't think Folha is clear what we mean by reports. You should make
       clear to them that we will not publish the reports. We may integrate
       the info we get in analysis but that doesn't mean that we'll publish
       their reports. You can add as example the fact that we always cite our
       sources in the sitreps we produce based on reports publicly available.

       Also, on Stratfor name, think we should be clear that anything that
       gets published as them citing us, is under name STRATFOR not Strategic
       Forecasting as we don't want to lose the brand and people get
       confused. So maybe add a line there about this?

       On the last - referring to the originator of materials, I'd really
       like a lawyer to look at that but I don't think it's necessarily
       bad...they'll probably translate the weeklies so we need to make sure
       they don't make huge interpretation in Portuguese when they translate
       that. Most importantly, we also want to make sure that the weekly
       appears as a STRATFOR product, only translated by Folha.

       Also, should we include a paragraph about our logo on their webpage?
       I've made an attempt and attached the draft with the logo paragraph -
       let me know what you think. I think we should say in the contract as
       with the bigger media partners - and the smaller ones that have
       lawyers and bureaucracy for this sort of things - are probably going
       to be less flexible with us asking for new deals like the logo being
       put on their website after the contract is signed. So am concerned
       that they may ask for signing adendums to contracts when we ask for
       logos...

       Allison Fedirka wrote:

         Hi Meredith and Antonia (and Jen if you are reading this),

         As you already know, I've been in contact with A Folha here in Sao
         Paulo.  It's a huge newspaper in the country - well connected and
         ranked first or second in natl circulation.  They were interested in
         cooperating with us.  I've been talking with a couple of people
         about coming to a common agreement for cooperation. 

         The managing editors looked it over and liked it enough to have the
         paper's lawyers look at the agreement.  As you can see they proposed
         some changes - some of which are harmless, such as referring to the
         company by Strategic Forecasting and putting an expiration date
         (after which we could renew the agreement).  There are other changes
         that you guys (or our company lawyers if we have them) need to look
         over to decide if the agreement is acceptable.  If you guys could
         look over that and get back to me sooner than later, that'd be
         great.  Their turn around time with the lawyers was about a week.

         Two other points of business....
         1) If we are going to start any serious negotiations or challenges
         with them please give me some pointers/prompting for writing back to
         them.  I'm good at individual, unofficial lnegotiations but have
         little experience openly playgin corporate hard bally
         2) Now may be a good time figure out how to handle adding new Latam
         confed partners.  As I've mentioned to Jen and Antonia, Karen is a
         fan of how in Europe Antonia makes and handles the confed
         relationships and does a general call for questions.  Karen proposed
         that we start doing that in Latam with me since that helps avoid
         passing people around, concentrates the confed flow and avoids any
         language barriers.  I bring this up now because if we decide to move
         forward with Folha, this decision will affect the Stratfor name on
         the contract.  If Latam tries to copy Europe, Karen suggested I
         assume Antonia's role.  If we decide to hand off papers to different
         analysts, we'd most likely put Reva's name down since she does more
         with Brazil than Karen.

         I know I've thrown a lot at you gals.  The most pressing matter in
         all of this is our response to Folha's version of the contract since
         I don't want to keep them waiting too long.

         Happy Monday
         Allison

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Marie Racheline Lyn Attia\" <marie.attia@grupofolha.com.br>
         To: \"allison fedirka\" <allison.fedirka@stratfor.com>
         Sent: Friday, June 3, 2011 6:02:39 PM
         Subject: Folha and STRATFOR - a cooperation

         Dear Allison,
          
          
         Could you please see attached the Stratfor agreement with the lawyers
         changes. Do not hesitate to contact me if you have any questions.
          
         Thanks for your help.
          
         Best regrads,
          
         Marie  

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         De: Marie Racheline Lyn Attia
         Enviado: quinta-feira, 2 de junho de 2011 11:49
         Para: Allison Fedirka; Ana Estela de Sousa Pinto
         Assunto: RES: RES: RES: RES: RES: A Folha and STRATFOR - a
         cooperation
         Hi Allison,
          
         Great! If our lawyers will need something I'll be in touch with you.
          
         Regards,
          
         Marie Racheline Lyn Attia
         Gerente-Assistente Administrativa da Redac,ao
         Assistant Administrative Manager for the Editorial Staff
         Folha de S.Paulo (Brazil)
         Fone: (+55 11) 3224 7953 / 3224 7904

         http://www.folha.com.br/sobre
         http://www.folha.com.br/english

          

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         De: Allison Fedirka [allison.fedirka@stratfor.com]
         Enviado: quinta-feira, 2 de junho de 2011 11:04
         Para: Ana Estela de Sousa Pinto
         Cc: Marie Racheline Lyn Attia
         Assunto: Re: RES: RES: RES: RES: A Folha and STRATFOR - a
         cooperation
          Goodmorning,

         Ana, thank you for the introduction. 

         Marie please do not hesitate to contact
         me if with any questions or concerns - no matter how big or small. 
         In case the phone is more convenient for you than email,
         I am passing along mycell numbers. 
         Brazil: +55.11.9343.7752
         US:  +1.512.496.3466

          Takecare
         Allison

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Ana Estela de Sousa Pinto\" <ana.estela@grupofolha.com.br>
         To: \"Allison Fedirka\" <allison.fedirka@stratfor.com>
         Cc: \"Marie Racheline Lyn Attia\" <marie.attia@grupofolha.com.br>
         Sent: Thursday, June 2, 2011 8:54:13 AM
         Subject: RES: RES: RES: RES: A Folha and STRATFOR - a cooperation

         OK, Allison.

          

         I am cc-ing this to Marie Attia, who is in
         charge of dealing with the lawyers!

          

         =)

          

         Marie, if there is anything that should be added to the Stratfor
         agreement, please inform Allison.

          

         Best regards,

          

         Ana

          

         Ana Estela de Sousa Pinto
         Editora de Treinamento
         Folha de S.Paulo
         3224-3109

          

         Leia o nosso blog: http://novoemfolha.folha.blog.uol.com.br/

         Ouc,a os podcasts:
         http://search.folha.com.br/search?q=ana%20estela&site=online%2Fpodcasts

          

          

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 --
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 VP,Communications
 STRATFOR
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 221 W. Sixth Street,
 Suite 400
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 512 744 4301 - office
 512 426 5107 - cell

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-06-08 12:31:20",1,"2012-03-26 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1243529_re-important-folha-and-stratfor-a-cooperation-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","","mfriedman@stratfor.com,colibasanu@stratfor.com,allison.fedirka@stratfor.com",""
1247981,"RE: today outside lehman
","Those guys are all going to be mowing Fred's lawn! 


Aaric S. Eisenstein

Stratfor

SVP Publishing

700 Lavaca St., Suite 900

Austin, TX  78701

512-744-4308

512-744-4334 fax


-----Original Message-----
From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
On Behalf Of Fred Burton
Sent: Tuesday, October 14, 2008 8:59 PM
To: 'Analyst List'
Subject: RE: today outside lehman

HA!  This is great.  Hope the FBI takes droves away in cuffs.   

-----Original Message-----
From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
On Behalf Of Peter Zeihan
Sent: Tuesday, October 14, 2008 6:12 PM
To: 'Analysts'
Subject: today outside lehman



_______________________________________________
Analysts mailing list

LIST ADDRESS:
analysts@stratfor.com
LIST INFO:
https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
LIST ARCHIVE:
https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts
","2008-10-15 03:59:57",1,"2011-03-15 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1247981_re-today-outside-lehman-.html","","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1264928,"INSIGHT - MOLDOVA - opinion on Biden's visit
","   SOURCE: MD101

 ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Washington & Chisinau
 SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Head of Moldovan Lobby in Washington, but lives
 partially in Chisinau & super close to most politicians
 PUBLICATION: yes
 SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
 ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
 DISTRIBUTION: Analysts, eurasia
 SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren/Antonia

 I believe that the visit in Russia is meant for the 'reset relations'
 scheme. The visits in Finland and Moldova are meant to 'ballance' the
 message towards the region (that's what the Americans usually do when
 they have a high profile visit to Moscow: they usually go to Eastern
 Europe, the Balts or Ukraine or Georgia... depending on the situation).
 Honestly, I don't expect something important from the visit in Moldova -
 it's a protocol and PR/image visit.

 It's possible that Transnistria be discussed (considering the European
 initiatives) but we'll not have a break-trough sit. It could be just a
 Chinese drop... but this is also very optimistic.

 If the Moldovans will take seriously all the messages referring to the
 consolidation of non-comunists parties and promoting the reforms in all
 fields, that would be the biggest achievement of the visit - on the
 short term.

 I'll meet a Biden's adviser after the visit and will let you know more.
","2011-03-08 15:00:04",1,"2012-03-05 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1264928_insight-moldova-opinion-on-biden-s-visit-.html","ben.preisler@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,eurasia@stratfor.com",""
1265938,"RE: [CT] New Panthers' war on whites
","   I'm flying Tue morning to Dee-troit to watch the results at Miss Olaylia's
   Soul Food Kitchen and Bar.  Should be a hell of a party.  Or race riot.
    

   Aaric S. Eisenstein

   Stratfor

   SVP Publishing

   700 Lavaca St., Suite 900

   Austin, TX  78701

   512-744-4308

   512-744-4334 fax

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, October 30, 2008 3:02 PM
   To: 'Aaric Eisenstein'; 'Don Kuykendall'
   Subject: RE: [CT] New Panthers' war on whites
   Jesse Jackson has promised riots if Obama is not elected.  Our country is
   finished.  Good thing I'm old. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Aaric Eisenstein [mailto:eisenstein@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, October 30, 2008 3:00 PM
   To: 'Fred Burton'; 'Don Kuykendall'
   Subject: RE: [CT] New Panthers' war on whites
   Am naming my next child after him.
    

   Aaric S. Eisenstein

   Stratfor

   SVP Publishing

   700 Lavaca St., Suite 900

   Austin, TX  78701

   512-744-4308

   512-744-4334 fax

    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, October 30, 2008 7:21 AM
   To: 'Don Kuykendall'; aaric.eisenstein@stratfor.com
   Subject: FW: [CT] New Panthers' war on whites
   FYI

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: ct-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:ct-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf
   Of scott stewart
   Sent: Thursday, October 30, 2008 7:19 AM
   To: 'CT AOR'
   Subject: [CT] New Panthers' war on whites

 Charming....

 http://www.philly.com/philly/news/33491864.html
 
 Posted on Wed, Oct. 29, 2008
 New Panthers' war on whites
 By DANA DiFILIPPO Philadelphia Daily News
 difilid@phillynews.com 215-854-5934
 
 Some people wear their heart on their sleeve.
 
 Minister King Samir Shabazz wears his on his forehead. Right between the
 eyes.
 
 \"If you want to stop the revolution, that's what you got to hit,\"
 Shabazz said, pointing to the target tattooed onto his forehead. \"I
 fight my oppressor, and I give him the target.\"
 
 Shabazz is chairman of the New Black Panther Party's Philadelphia
 chapter. In black beret atop dreadlocks and a black military uniform, he
 spends most weekdays near City Hall condemning \"crackers\" and exhorting
 black passers-by to rise up against their \"slavemasters\" - and to give
 him $2 for the party's semi-annual newspaper.
 
 He is one of the most recognizable black militants in a city known,
 since the days of MOVE, for its vocal black-extremism community.
 
 The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC), which monitors hate activity
 globally, listed the New Black Panther Party as among the most active
 and tough-talking of black-separatist groups.
 
 Black Hebrews also have grown increasingly active in recent years,
 according to the SPLC, especially in Philadelphia, where robed street
 preachers shout out their beliefs daily near City Hall, the Convention
 Center, Germantown Avenue and other heavily trafficked areas.
 
 Followers of the movement claim that African-Americans are God's true
 chosen people because they, not the people traditionally known as Jews,
 are the real descendants of the biblical Hebrews.
 
 Their views, while often just as extreme, tend to be couched in
 religious rhetoric about \"Edomites\" (the descendants of Esau) and such
 terms that barely slow the stride of most passers-by.
 
 But Shabazz is more blunt in his views:
 
 * On whites: \"I'm about the total destruction of white people. I'm about
 the total liberation of black people. I hate white people. I hate my
 enemy. . . .\"
 
 * On Jews: \"I don't care how much they try to promote the Jewish
 Holocaust. The African people have suffered a hell of a cost. . . . \"
 
 * On Barack Obama and voting: \"He's a puppet on a string. I don't
 support no black man running for white politics. I will not vote for who
 will be the next slavemaster.\" Besides, he added, Obama is \"a Negro who
 doesn't even support reparations for black people in America.\"
 
 * On white supremacists: \"They're sissies; they want to put their
 feelings on a flier. Well, come into the black neighborhood with that
 rhetoric and we will show you what a strong awakened black man looks
 like.\"
 
 * On the Phillies: \"They can kiss my ass. The Phillies are not doing
 nothing for our 'hoods.\"
 
 Shabazz, who also considers himself a Black Hebrew, said that his
 beliefs are rooted in high school, where lessons about slavery led to an
 \"awakening.\"
 
 He doesn't like to talk about himself. He won't divulge his real name,
 which he shed years ago because it was a \"slave name that still had an
 umbilical cord on it.\"
 
 He lives \"wherever black people is, that's where I live.\"
 
 He's 38 and has children, but he won't say how many or provide any more
 details about his personal life, partly for security reasons but also
 because this reporter is a \"cracker.\"
 
 He listens to \"revolutionary, cracker-killing hip-hop\" on his headphones
 and says things like: \"I'll get black to you on that.\"
 
 And he says that he never worries what response his violent rhetoric
 might provoke in listeners.
 
 \"The only thing the cracker understands is violence,\" said Shabazz,
 whose face also bears the tattoos \"Freedom,\" \"BPG\" (Black Power Gang)
 and \"NBPP\" (New Black Panther Party). \"The only thing the cracker
 understands is gunpowder.
 
 \"You got to take violence to violence.\" *
 

    
   Scott Stewart
   STRATFOR
   Office: 814 967 4046
   Cell: 814 573 8297
   scott.stewart@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
    
","2008-10-30 21:22:46",1,"2012-03-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1265938_re-ct-new-panthers-war-on-whites-.html","","","burton@stratfor.com,kuykendall@stratfor.com",""
1272330,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these
   in the US?
    What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
   I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
   whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
   because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
   revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of understanding
   of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is expendable to
   cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of coercion.

   Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
   cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of el
   chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication as a
   tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable intelligence,
   the government will use it against the cartels. That's a physical threat,
   if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify that Anonymous can
   not directly effect physical security. Any impact to the cartel in
   revealing information will be from actions of rival cartels or the GoM.
   They may release information on a given politician being linked to the
   cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the politician will feel an impact
   (Just because Anonymous says there is a link, doesn't make it true). It
   would be up to others to take action.

   Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online activity
   (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to conduct significant
   logistics and business online. We don't know how much, but we do know they
   will have some points of operational vulnerability I have heard of cartels
   doing business online, but don't have specific examples which could be
   used in assessing their vulnerability online.

   by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested
   or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I should say,
   there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out politicians as
   colluding.
   On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

     Karen Hooper
     Latin America Analyst
     o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
     c: 512.750.7234
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com
     On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
     cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
     to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
     personal information on cartels as well as states a member had been
     kidnapped. I could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of
     the individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
     (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an
     individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
     Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

     Link: themeData
     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
     denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
     drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent
     video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels
     in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they
     specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the
     US?
      What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
     group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
     face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
     mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
     demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
     conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a
     unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at online
     bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any
     headaches from hackers before. 

     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
     Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the
     head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using
     publication as a tool to force government action. If you reveal
     actionable intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels.
     That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
     cartels

     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
     information on cartel members
          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
     cartels
          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
     identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
     realm of possibilities for
                 Anonymous
                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
     illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are
     known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't
     know how much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
     vulnerability

     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent
     world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of
     cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when
     sitting in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
     retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
     cartels.
          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
     cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
     forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
     victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
     identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
     cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
     working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor) before, however
     there has yet to be any consequences from this. by \"no consequences\"
     what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and
     that happens all the time.
          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
     willing to go protect their operations.
             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
     before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
             o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
     discovering hackers within Mexico.
     need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply publishing
     tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the same camp as
     the bloggers

      

     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
       are several issues to address and fix here.

       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
       discussion:

            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
       can't gloss over that fact
            o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
       stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
       www.loszetas.com main page.
            o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
       could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
       accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
       businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
       Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
       instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
       they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
       because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
       kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
            o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
       realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
       damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
       technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
       certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
       information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
       Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
       accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
       dissemination.
            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
       back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by
       people who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker
       and a blogger.

       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

         -------- Original Message --------

          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
             From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
         Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
               To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

         you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
         more work

         You need to lay out:

         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
         unclear
         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
         therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
         breaches their systems or exposes their connections

         I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
         insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
         of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to
         assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
         protected fashion.

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         Link: themeData

         Trigger

         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
         Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out
         at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
         Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...?
         a person talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With
         the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
         the criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
         Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group
         demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
         consequences. The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal
         cartels and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
         cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
         experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no experience
         with the cartels. I do not believe for a second that the cartels
         have no experience with hackers.

          

         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
         day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
         releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back.
         Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how
         he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing
         revealing information on cartel members and operations are true,
         cartels will likely respond with violence against individuals
         revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials
         who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
         Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this means. You
         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel
         will be able to retaliate against Anonymous remains unanswered .
         However, cartels will continue their threats against any individual
         using online media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not
         talking about bloggers here. against the cartels.

          

         The Battle Space

         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
         realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
         the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
         cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
         tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses - although
         most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base
         consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any information
         connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers.
         (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of
         Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
         what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
         Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in revenue,
         but it does not really matter if you don't run operations on the
         web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far
         less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
         consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
         themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
         internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
         and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
         goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web
         of people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of
         serious IT capability. 

         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
         targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
         Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
         maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
         commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
         issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.
         Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and escalating
         brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing
         different types of threats. Cartels are always suffering at the
         hands of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each other,
         cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels
         wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
         have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
         bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok... but
         that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus
         on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume
         they have no cyber presence.

          

         Anonymous' Weapons

         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
         criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
         combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
         sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
         statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean
         so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a
         targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
         individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
         Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
         such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
         target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
         Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
         body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce
         cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
         really addressing the subheading

         As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
         disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous
         is capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
         cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals.
         Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive information is limited
         by what is available via the Internet. Government computers
         connected to the Internet should always be considered a possibility
         of an attack. However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the
         US governments computer networks, information available to Mexico's
         intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you
         trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

          

         Cartel's Defense

                     A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet
         to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by
         Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed
         by hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also
         this undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley
         internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that
         could very well give you some indication to the technical ability of
         the cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
         wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely
         are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole
         agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume
         (and we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
         disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in
         any region of the world. Personal information including locations is
         only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject
         of the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
         work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
         online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
         employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger things
         have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                     Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
         Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of
         computer science majors through personal threats has been reported
         in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels
         operate in the world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they
         will likely need the assistance of technical experts to help combat
         any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside
         of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable
         of identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
         experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers
         through investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
         (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not
         all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                     In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
         likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
         force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
         Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
         with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be
         targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
         public display of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
         online media into submission i'm not really seeing the online
         media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
         manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer hackers
         have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
         cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to
         be seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
         the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff and
         simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 18:19:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1272330_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","tristan.reed@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1272344,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   Good point. 
   In terrorist terms they are more like grassroots people than AQ core. 
   From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:11:05 -0500
   To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
   Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They are
   a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
   online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do this
   in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people joining
   Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or something
   like that. 

   Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

   On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
     these in the US?
      What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
     I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
     whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
     because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
     revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
     understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
     expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
     coercion.

     Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
     cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of el
     chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication as a
     tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable intelligence,
     the government will use it against the cartels. That's a physical
     threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify that
     Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact to the
     cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival cartels or
     the GoM. They may release information on a given politician being linked
     to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the politician will feel
     an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a link, doesn't make it
     true). It would be up to others to take action.  I think the way you
     have it worded in the above sentence is good.  Follow with a sentence
     explaining the rest of it, because readers will have the same question
     Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat to cartels would come in
     what information anonymous could expose that is useful to their enemies'

     Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
     activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to conduct
     significant logistics and business online. We don't know how much, but
     we do know they will have some points of operational vulnerability I
     have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't have specific
     examples which could be used in assessing their vulnerability online.

     by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
     arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
     should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
     politicians as colluding.
     On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

       Karen Hooper
       Latin America Analyst
       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
       c: 512.750.7234
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
       Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
       possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
       Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using the
       banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
       cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
       find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
       kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
       Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting
       flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the Operation
       Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is good and
       will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a quick
       explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding something in
       the explaining the flyers will work]

       Link: themeData
       Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
       denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate websites,
       lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
       denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a
       masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With
       the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
       the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities
       of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude with
       criminal cartels do they specify whether or not these are all in
       Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
       group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
       face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
       was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
       their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
       potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
       presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational criminal
       organization, it's not really unique.  Many such organizations do
       their crimes online, and have been hacked in response--like the
       nigerian princess scams. I think you should just say it's a unique
       threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out at online bloggers,
       but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
       from hackers before. 

       What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
            o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat
       to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to
       the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using
       publication as a tool to force government action. If you reveal
       actionable intelligence, the government will use it against the
       cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
            o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
       media
            o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
       at cartels

       While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
       threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

               -The threat is in the information they can expose that may be
   of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or other
   cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but i could
   imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the public).

            o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
       identifiable information on cartel members 
            o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
       cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
       section/paragraph]
            o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
       identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
       the realm of possibilities for
                   Anonymous
                   o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
       illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are
       known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't
       know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
       operational vulnerability

      -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
   (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
   cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
   replaceable. 
               -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents have
   access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any sort of
   existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

       Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
       world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that some
       of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to the
       violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is there
       are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems very
       possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have joined
       up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of cartel
       activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other countries may
       act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but this may
       blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even know the
       impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the part below and above is
       written rather normatively.  We need to take that out.  just state the
       facts]
            o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
       cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
       forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
       victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
       identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
       cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
       working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor) before, however
       there has yet to be any consequences from this. by \"no consequences\"
       what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and
       that happens all the time.
            o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
       willing to go protect their operations.
               o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
               o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
       community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
       them.
               o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
       discovering hackers within Mexico.
       need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply publishing
       tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the same camp as
       the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that their damage
       will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can do--limited.  But
       maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are no longer
       challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

        

       On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

         Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
         are several issues to address and fix here.

         These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
         discussion:

              o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
         we can't gloss over that fact
              o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
         between stealing bank records from government computers and
         overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
              o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
         information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
         kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
         talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
         politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
         going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
         killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
         operational details, because they acted as informants, because they
         exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied the
         cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
         to the cartels themselves?
              o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
         realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
         damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
         technical ability by a very small number of its members to
         infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information. Now
         what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that is
         connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
         information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
         of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
         consequences of dissemination.
              o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
         back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done
         by people who may not understand the difference between an anon
         hacker and a blogger.

         On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

           wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

           -------- Original Message --------

            Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
               Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
               From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
           Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                 To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

           you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
           lot more work

           You need to lay out:

           a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
           is unclear
           b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
           therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
           c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
           d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
           who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

           I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
           insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
           of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
           cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason
           to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
           protected fashion.

           Karen Hooper
           Latin America Analyst
           o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
           c: 512.750.7234
           STRATFOR
           www.stratfor.com
           On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

           On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Link: themeData

           Trigger

           Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
           depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
           exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
           makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
           releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
           politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
           The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
           member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
           between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
           unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
           operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
           Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
           believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
           not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience with
           hackers.

            

           In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as
           a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
           releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
           front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit
           back. Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and
           why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of
           possessing revealing information on cartel members and operations
           are true, cartels will likely respond with violence against
           individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean
           Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of
           GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take
           action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand
           what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
           effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against Anonymous
           remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue their threats
           against any individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
           or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here. against the
           cartels.

            

           The Battle Space

           Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
           realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
           the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
           boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
           cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
           tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses -
           although most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
           base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any
           information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by
           hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the
           midst of Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember
           that most of what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if
           you are Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
           revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run operations
           on the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are
           also far less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

           Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
           consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
           themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
           internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
           and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
           goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large
           web of people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort
           of serious IT capability. 

           The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
           from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

           The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
           Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
           maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
           commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
           issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
           is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
           capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
           and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
           experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
           always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence. While
           battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement
           Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of
           drugs and money, cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering
           journalists and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
           operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
           discussion. You need to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of
           the cartels. Don't just assume they have no cyber presence.

            

           Anonymous' Weapons

           Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
           criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
           combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
           sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
           statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you
           mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their
           video to cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance
           of a targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
           individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
           Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
           such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
           target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by
           Los Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
           the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
           denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here,
           and it's not really addressing the subheading

           As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
           disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
           Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
           release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
           Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
           individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
           information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
           Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
           considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
           compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer networks,
           information available to Mexico's intelligence collection may not
           be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
           clear at all

            

           Cartel's Defense

                       A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
           yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
           member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
           threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
           response? also this undermines your statements above about how
           Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
           vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
           Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you some
           indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As Anonymous
           exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the cartels
           will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed for them
           Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies dedicated to
           fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good
           intel indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
           cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any region
           of the world. Personal information including locations is only
           available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject of
           the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
           work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
           online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
           employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger
           things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                       Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
           Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help
           of computer science majors through personal threats has been
           reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since
           cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
           trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
           experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
           identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
           unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers operating
           outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such as the FBi,
           with far more technical experience and resources than cartels,
           struggle to find hackers through investigations. A) How do you
           know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???)
           B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult
           to track down

                       In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
           likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
           force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
           Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?. 
           Individuals with alleged connections to hacker communities will
           likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco
           banners and public display of violence will likely continue to be
           used to scare online media into submission i'm not really seeing
           the online media-international hacking group connection here.  The
           cruel manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
           hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether
           the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous
           will remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
           capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the
           collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience
           that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 20:33:26",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1272344_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1272397,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   Yes, in response to your first question. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Colby Martin\" <colby.martin@stratfor.com>
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Monday, October 24, 2011 7:47:49 PM
   Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels

   Sean, just to be clear

   Your point is that Anonymous hasn't mattered?  Is your argument that
   hackers haven't mattered either?  because if Anonymous is a mob of hackers
   as you argue, how haven't they mattered to their targets?  what about all
   the money spent fighting them?  and as Tristan just pointed out - how
   about HBGary Federal?  He said the CEO's SSN and address were posted on
   Twitter.  What about all the sensitive emails that were lost?  We have no
   way of knowing what was in those emails, or how they are being used to
   make money at the expense of HBGary.  I have always agreed that they
   haven't reached a level of threat to the US, but that surely doesn't mean
   they won't.  And there are quite a few countries, organizations, and
   people below that rather high standard who could not withstand an attack,
   including an email purge of personal emails onto the web. 

   On 10/24/11 7:33 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
     the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
     only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
     responsible.

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
     responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
     intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
     just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
     indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
     department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

     Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

     Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
     SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication
     devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining
     computer network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while
     SIGINT may be used with other intelligence disciplines in order to
     identify a hacker, it is not necessary and is no more related than any
     other intel discipline. SIGINT could help you identify a computer
     devices (not the operator) emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis,
     which is also separate from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could
     help in providing methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT
     wouldn't obtain those messages.

     In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
     are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and
     technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

     NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
     technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
     resources in R&D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA.
     But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

     Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
     for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing
     operations on the scale of causing physical damage to extremely
     sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that
     matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most
     prolific example of a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted
     mainly outside of the cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of
     this doesn't matter? Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks
     have physically damaged secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think
     you are downplaying too much the significance of exposing corporate
     secrets, halting businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by
     defacing their websites.

     On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
           arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
           foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected?
           No, of course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so
           good to be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers. 
           I'm saying they are more detectable than you think.  There is no
           such thing as truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will
           that trail in every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but
           it can lead to a place, an organization, and often, an
           individual. 

           2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
           responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
           cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this
           case HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
           capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking
           hackers. NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers
           but it does not make it SIGINT.

           Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

           The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
           people assume there is no attribution because there is no
           response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
           this, because no attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes,
           they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for lack of
           response, then I think they are wrong. 

           3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
           laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
           involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way
           there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is
           one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to
           trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood
           with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more
           complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational
           surveillance, developing exploits, developing programs and code,
           gaining access, exploiting that, and carrying out an attack. 
           Discovering exploits and writing code can be done entirely
           offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel agencies.
           Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point of the
           exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point is,
           if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
           remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
           IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
           cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
           more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
           linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
           Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
           to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
           things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time
           for your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the
           target, a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur
           without network activity. Look at everything that went into
           Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person
           with a new laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small
           part of necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't
           think we are discussing operations on the scale of causing
           physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is
           an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so
           far has not mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
           evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
           possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation, that
           even the best law enforcement and national intelligence agencies
           have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that
           it's very difficult for someone to successfully use Anonymous as a
           cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute
           it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is effective in identifying
           hackers?I don't, but I'm confident they are far better than you
           are allowing for.    They may not choose to cover it if it is
           small scale crime, however. 
           On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
             cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
             that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
             with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
             the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from
             China, may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese
             government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
             government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate
             there is little capability to distinguish.

             It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
             operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets
             from SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual
             responsible for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have
             turned to SIGINT organizations for collections on computer
             related material, but this was due to the US being behind in
             cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
             However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of
             years.

             Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As
             an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go
             to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the
             online activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
             accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
             etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never
             use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
             description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible
             security cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

             Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
             these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied
             to specific computer-related activities because of the
             difficulty in identifying individuals.

             I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be blown,
             would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a
             common participant in \"Anonymous\" activities, was working for a
             State? Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that
             State agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter
             buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

             On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
               bit)

               1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
               actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't,
               but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first
               real case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
               people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
               as a serious or strategic threat. 

               2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
               actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as
               a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could
               probably still be attributed if important enough to those
               agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings this
               issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies they
               did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an
               publicized attacks in the past, even before they were carried
               out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
               sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
               coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted
               Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
               damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data
               security, but this is no different than the OC groups stealing
               your credit card information.  LE will go after them, have
               some success, but the threat is not that large. 
               On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                 I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
                 have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
                 nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
                 threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
                 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                 most of the cases, they are the a**gooda** guys, sort of a
                 Robin Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when it
                 comes to their interactions with the cartels is the dubious
                 role they play: at the same time they can be fighting crime
                 by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can also
                 put lives in risk.

                 However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
                 Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth,
                 can conduct a cyber attack under a**Anonymousa** is
                 worrisome.
                 (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                 If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
                 websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
                 know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
                 interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
                 far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries
                 are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
                 them to achieve any particular goal?

                 On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                   everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                   doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                   caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on
                   journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding
                   of the situation.  This has long term implications in not
                   just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
                   their actions and they act without understanding the
                   environment.  It was the same when they released
                   information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
                   Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                     discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on
                     what type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The
                     video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
                     personal information on cartels as well as states a
                     member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
                     outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
                     kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous
                     Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be
                     an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
                     Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
                     speculation.

                     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                     distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                     government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                     Internet with a statements denouncing Mexicoa**s
                     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
                     individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October
                     10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes
                     bold threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico.
                     Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
                     police, politicians, and journalists who collude with
                     criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
                     release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
                     consequences. In the Anonymousa** video, this coming
                     November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could expect
                     Anonymousa** reaction if their demands of releasing a
                     kidnapped member are not met. The potential of conflict
                     between Mexicoa**s criminal cartels and hackers,
                     presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of
                     cartels lashing out at online bloggers, but I havena**t
                     seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
                     from hackers before. 

                     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                         a*-c-    Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                     security threat to Mexican cartels.
                         a*-c-    Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                     exploit online media
                         a*-c-    Anonymous hackers do not have to be in
                     Mexico to lash out at cartels

                     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                     pose a threat
                         a*-c-    It is unknown if Anonymousa**s claims to
                     possess identifiable information on cartel members
                         a*-c-    It is unknown what information Anonymous
                     could acquire on cartels
                         a*-c-    Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                     communications, identifiable information on cartels
                     members have to be considered in the realm of
                     possibilities for
                                 Anonymous
                                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated ita**s
                     ability to reveal illicit online activity (child
                     pornography rings)

                     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                     ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                     result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                     limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
                     in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                     possible retribution. They may not even know the impact
                     of any online assault of cartels.
                         a*-c-    Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                     journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                     understand some of these individuals are forced to
                     collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                     often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                     halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals
                     will not have a significant impact on cartel            
                           operations. Politicans have been accused of
                     working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor)
                     before, however there has yet to be any consequences
                     from this.
                         a*-c-    Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                     extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                     operations.
                             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                     science community before, coercing computer science
                     majors into working for them.
                             o    This provides the cartels with the
                     possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                      

                     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                       idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                       here.

                       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern
                       with the discussion:

                           a*-c-    we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                       that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                           a*-c-    \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a
                       difference between stealing bank records from
                       government computers and overloading www.loszetas.com
                       main page.
                           a*-c-    There's no thought out process of what
                       sort of information could anon have on the cartels.
                       What kind of info is kept online and accessible to
                       potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
                       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
                       politicians and businessmen who need to worry about
                       what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                       bloggers and media were killed in previous instances.
                       Was it because they revealed operational details,
                       because they acted as informants, because they exposed
                       links with officials or because they somehow sullied
                       the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                       information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                           a*-c-    Once you identify this info - think about
                       if anon can realistically access it and disseminate it
                       so it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have
                       any intelligence capacity except for the technical
                       ability by a very small number of its members to
                       infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
                       information. Now what kind of information would a
                       cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
                       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
                       information be found? Government databases? Once we
                       know what kind of information is accessible, we can
                       also know more about the consequences of
                       dissemination.
                           a*-c-    What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                       Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                       risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may
                       not understand the difference between an anon hacker
                       and a blogger.

                       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                         -------- Original Message --------

                          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                             From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
                         Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                               To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

                         you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                         going to need a lot more work

                         You need to lay out:

                         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                         trigger section is unclear
                         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                         is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                         capabilities
                         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                         security anything
                         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                         kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                         their connections

                         I also just want to point out that we have
                         reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very
                         least has some significant levels of sophistication
                         in their online presence, to include the use of
                         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
                         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also
                         conduct business online, in a protected fashion.

                         Karen Hooper
                         Latin America Analyst
                         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                         c: 512.750.7234
                         STRATFOR
                         www.stratfor.com
                         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         --
                         Sean Noonan
                         Tactical Analyst
                         Office: +1 512-279-9479
                         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
                         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
                         www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-25 03:18:15",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1272397_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1273397,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   if anonymous outs taxi cab drivers working with Zeta, they are dead.  that
   is both simple and devastating.  If they release email accounts of GOM
   folks, and there are cartel members in that address book that would be
   devastating.  I think our definitions of devastating are different.  I
   agree the ability of these folks to bring down governments is minimal, but
   I am willing to bet the next deep throat scenario will come via a hacker
   and information they are able to steal. 

   On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  The question is if the attack is high
     priority enough.  Many people assume there is no attribution because
     there is no response, but I don't think that is accurate. 
     has NSA told you otherwise?  i am unclear, are you saying the entire
     darknet is mapped, or could be mapped, only it isn't because the NSA
     doesn't care or doens't share? 
     3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new laptop and
     start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack involves much more than
     a recently bought laptop.  In the same way there is an attack cycle for
     a terrorist attack or crime, there is one for a cyber attack.  A very
     simple attack may be as hard to trace as a nearly-random mugging in the
     dark in a neighborhood with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.
     so simple=low damage, and complicated = more damage?  if you hacked
     Calderon's blackberry and found out who his contacts were, and one of
     them was Chapo's sister, it would be simple and devastating.  A more
     complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational surveillance,
     developing exploits, developing programs and code, gaining access,
     exploiting that, and carrying out an attack.  And that takes time,
     giving more time for your exposure. Look at everything that went into
     Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person with a
     new laptop.  All of this activity provides activity and evidence which
     helps for attribution.  Of course it is always possible to develop an
     attack, just like any other operation, that even the best law
     enforcement and national intelligence agencies have trouble or cannot
     attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that it's very difficult for
     someone to successfully use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID,
     Aman, etc, be unable to attribute it.  They may not choose to cover it
     if it is small scale crime, however. 
     On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored cyber
       warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing that, since
       you can conduct a cyber attack without associating with a hacker group
       and still deny / cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual
       attacking US computer assets from China, may be working by himself or
       on behalf of the Chinese government, but unless the US has other intel
       on the Chinese government's cyber warfare activities in order to
       corroborate there is little capability to distinguish.

       It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
       operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from
       SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual responsible for
       hacking State run servers. In the past, I have turned to SIGINT
       organizations for collections on computer related material, but this
       was due to the US being behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where
       to assign responsibility. However, this has changed dramatically in
       the last couple of years.

       Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an
       extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a
       Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the online
       activity to something revealing (accessing personal email accounts,
       tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop, etc..), and
       begin hacking government email accounts then never use the laptop
       again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of my appearance
       from Starbuck's patrons or possible security cameras, I can not think
       of way to identify me.

       Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to these
       enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to specific
       computer-related activities because of the difficulty in identifying
       individuals.

       I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be blown, would
       be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common
       participant in \"Anonymous\" activities, was working for a State?
       Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that State agent
       organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs
       could a LEA look for to distinguish?

       On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a bit)

         1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything actually
         harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but i'm very
         doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real case where
         they could do some minor damage--to individual people, not not to an
         organization or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
         threat. 

         2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually
         pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover, but
         that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could probably still be
         attributed if important enough to those agencies.  The recent attack
         on Sony actually brings this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves
         anonymous denies they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have
         claimed an publicized attacks in the past, even before they were
         carried out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
         sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
         coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted Sony's IT
         security).  But whoever did it, again, no real damage came of it. 
         Congress is holding hearings over data security, but this is no
         different than the OC groups stealing your credit card information. 
         LE will go after them, have some success, but the threat is not that
         large. 
         On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

           Link: themeData

           I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
           broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
           almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
           Reviewing their list of attacks
           (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of
           the cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the
           internet . The interesting thing when it comes to their
           interactions with the cartels is the dubious role they play: at
           the same time they can be fighting crime by revealing cartel
           members/supporters, but they can also put lives in risk.

           However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
           Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can
           conduct a cyber attack under \"Anonymous\" is worrisome.
           (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

           If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
           websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know
           more about these guys. Who they are? What are they interested in?
           How they operate? Who they have targeted so far? How can I defend
           myself from them? In what countries are they active? Should I
           worry about them at all? Can I use them to achieve any particular
           goal?

           On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else
             can build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they
             pose to innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico. 
             By focusing on journalists or taxi drivers they show little
             understanding of the situation.  This has long term implications
             in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
             their actions and they act without understanding the
             environment.  It was the same when they released information on
             the Sony Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt
             innocent people to prove a point. 

             On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
               possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
               Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by
               Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on cartels
               as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
               find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
               individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
               (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it
               may be an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
               Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

               Link: themeData
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
               distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government
               websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
               statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a
               video depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug
               cartels on October 10? With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
               Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
               police, politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
               cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow
               kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In the
               Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
               day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands
               of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
               conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
               presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
               lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any
               reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers
               before. 

               What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                    o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
               threat to Mexican cartels.
                    o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit
               online media
                    o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to
               lash out at cartels

               While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose
               a threat
                    o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
               identifiable information on cartel members
                    o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could
               acquire on cartels
                    o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
               communications, identifiable information on cartels members
               have to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                           Anonymous
                           o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to
               reveal illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

               Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
               ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
               result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
               limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting in
               front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
               retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online
               assault of cartels.
                    o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
               journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some
               of these individuals are forced to collude with cartels.    
                         Taxi drivers are often victims of extortion or
               coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
               individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel    
                             operations. Politicans have been accused of
               working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor) before,
               however there has yet to be any consequences from this.
                    o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent
               cartels are willing to go protect their operations.
                       o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                       o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
               community before, coercing computer science majors into
               working for them.
                       o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
               discovering hackers within Mexico.

                

               On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                 Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea
                 but there are several issues to address and fix here.

                 These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
                 discussion:

                      o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's
                 fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                      o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a
                 difference between stealing bank records from government
                 computers and overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                      o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
                 information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of
                 info is kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You
                 seem to be talking about identities, whose? If anything it's
                 dirty cops, politicians and businessmen who need to worry
                 about what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                 bloggers and media were killed in previous instances. Was it
                 because they revealed operational details, because they
                 acted as informants, because they exposed links with
                 officials or because they somehow sullied the cartel's
                 reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
                 to the cartels themselves?
                      o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon
                 can realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes
                 a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence
                 capacity except for the technical ability by a very small
                 number of its members to infiltrate certain networks and
                 databases and steal information. Now what kind of
                 information would a cartel keep on a network that is
                 connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else
                 could information be found? Government databases? Once we
                 know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
                 know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                      o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
                 trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
                 killings done by people who may not understand the
                 difference between an anon hacker and a blogger.

                 On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                   -------- Original Message --------

                    Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                       Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                       From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
                   Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                         To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

                   you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to
                   need a lot more work

                   You need to lay out:

                   a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
                   section is unclear
                   b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is,
                   and therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
                   c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
                   anything
                   d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
                   anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their
                   connections

                   I also just want to point out that we have reasonable
                   reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some
                   significant levels of sophistication in their online
                   presence, to include the use of cyber currencies and
                   significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume that
                   Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
                   protected fashion.

                   Karen Hooper
                   Latin America Analyst
                   o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                   c: 512.750.7234
                   STRATFOR
                   www.stratfor.com
                   On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                   On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                   Link: themeData

                   Trigger

                   Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
                   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
                   lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
                   statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including
                   a video released depicting...? a person talking? a voice?
                   words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent
                   video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                   criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
                   Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                   journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
                   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
                   otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
                   between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                   unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                   different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a
                   conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
                   experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
                   experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
                   that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                    

                   In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                   reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member
                   this should be mentioned right up front. Cartels have a
                   member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
                   enough details so we understand who this guy is and
                   why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims
                   of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
                   operations are true, cartels will likely respond with
                   violence against individuals revealed as opposing cartel
                   members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is
                   likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude
                   with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
                   Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
                   means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                   effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
                   Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
                   continue their threats against any individual using online
                   media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking
                   about bloggers here. against the cartels.

                    

                   The Battle Space

                   Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                   separate realities from each other. Anonymous operates
                   solely in sphere of the computer networks. Anonymous does
                   not experience geographical boundaries. All personalities
                   within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
                   not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in
                   the real world. They have names and addresses - although
                   most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                   base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking.
                   Any information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to
                   exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual
                   cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
                   be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
                   has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or
                   a big company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                   it does not really matter if you don't run operations on
                   the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They
                   are also far less dependent on the web than the
                   jihadists.)

                   Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's
                   power base consists of the perceived anonymity that its
                   members believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by
                   operating through the internet. This gives an opening for
                   people disgruntled by anything and everything to practice
                   general dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity +
                   audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
                   people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any
                   sort of serious IT capability. 

                   The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
                   been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

                   The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in
                   US and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always
                   looking to maximize profits and expand. But they are
                   bricks and mortar commerce. Yes..... but they use the
                   internet to launder money and issue commands. We know that
                   Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to
                   assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity. 
                   Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                   escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
                   experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels
                   are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
                   violence. While battling each other, cartels still face
                   arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
                   avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money,
                   cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists
                   and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
                   operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
                   discussion. You need to focus on the possible
                   vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
                   have no cyber presence.

                    

                   Anonymous' Weapons

                   Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions
                   against criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous'
                   only ability to combat cartels lay in information
                   operations, mainly disseminating sensitive information on
                   cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via social
                   media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and
                   that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                   cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of
                   a targeted information operations campaign by technically
                   elite individuals can not be overlooked should not be
                   underestimated. Cartels view main stream media outlets and
                   social media blogs as such a threat to their operations,
                   that they have continued to target journalists and
                   bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was
                   placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
                   body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
                   denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
                   here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

                   As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                   internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample
                   reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing
                   information they threaten to release. By releasing
                   identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
                   cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
                   individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
                   information is limited by what is available via the
                   Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
                   should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
                   However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                   governments computer networks, information available to
                   Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to
                   acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
                   clear at all

                    

                   Cartel's Defense

                               A counter response to the video? by the
                   cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                   claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los
                   Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by hackers
                   so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
                   undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is
                   soley internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities
                   of associated members. How did they find teh Anonymous
                   member? The answer to that could very well give you some
                   indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
                   Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web
                   , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
                   rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG
                   has whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in
                   cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
                   indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
                   cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any
                   region of the world. Personal information including
                   locations is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge
                   it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                   figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous.
                   Cartels are only capable of dealing with their online
                   enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
                   employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
                   Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                               Cartels have been known to coerce the services
                   of Mexican citizens with a technical background.
                   Recruiting the help of computer science majors through
                   personal threats has been reported in the past where? What
                   cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
                   world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will
                   likely need the assistance of technical experts to help
                   combat any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                   bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
                   unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
                   operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
                   such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and
                   resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers through
                   investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
                   (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume
                   that not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                               In order to compete with an online foe,
                   cartels will likely continue counter tactics they are most
                   familiar with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of
                   their HUMINT operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would
                   we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged
                   connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
                   and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
                   public display of violence will likely continue to be used
                   to scare online media into submission i'm not really
                   seeing the online media-international hacking group
                   connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                   inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
                   encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
                   cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will
                   remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
                   capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could
                   call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off
                   any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 22:29:35",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1273397_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1273433,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
   the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
   only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
   responsible.

   2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
   responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
   intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
   just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
   indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
   department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

   Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

   Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short, SIGINT
   is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication devices,
   and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining computer
   network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while SIGINT may be
   used with other intelligence disciplines in order to identify a hacker, it
   is not necessary and is no more related than any other intel discipline.
   SIGINT could help you identify a computer devices (not the operator)
   emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis, which is also separate from
   SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could help in providing methods to
   decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT wouldn't obtain those
   messages.

   In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
   are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and technologies
   tailored specifically for computer activity.

   NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of technological
   demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous resources in R&D, so
   I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA. But their SIGINT
   capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

   Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor for
   the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing operations on
   the scale of causing physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment .
   Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas
   Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most prolific example of
   a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted mainly outside of the
   cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of this doesn't matter?
   Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks have physically damaged
   secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think you are downplaying too
   much the significance of exposing corporate secrets, halting businesses'
   revenues, and embarrassing State actors by defacing their websites.

   On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
         arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say foreign
         intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected? No, of
         course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so good to
         be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers.  I'm saying
         they are more detectable than you think.  There is no such thing as
         truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will that trail in
         every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but it can lead to
         a place, an organization, and often, an individual. 

         2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
         responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
         cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case
         HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
         capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers.
         NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers but it does
         not make it SIGINT.

         Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

         The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many people
         assume there is no attribution because there is no response, but I
         don't think that is accurate.  Many people say this, because no
         attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes, they do, and if
         they think that is the primary reason for lack of response, then I
         think they are wrong. 

         3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new laptop
         and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack involves much
         more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way there is an
         attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is one for a
         cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to trace as a
         nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood with much more
         serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more complicated attack,
         however, involves pre-operational surveillance, developing exploits,
         developing programs and code, gaining access, exploiting that, and
         carrying out an attack.  Discovering exploits and writing code can
         be done entirely offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel
         agencies. Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point
         of the exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point
         is, if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
         remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
         IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
         cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
         more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
         linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
         Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
         to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
         things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time for
         your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the target,
         a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur without
         network activity. Look at everything that went into Stuxnet as a
         great example, that couldn't be done with one person with a new
         laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of
         necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are
         discussing operations on the scale of causing physical damage to
         extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber
         attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  
         All of this activity provides activity and evidence which helps for
         attribution.  Of course it is always possible to develop an attack,
         just like any other operation, that even the best law enforcement
         and national intelligence agencies have trouble or cannot
         attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that it's very difficult for
         someone to successfully use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ,
         MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute it.  How do you know if NSA
         or GHQ is effective in identifying hackers?I don't, but I'm
         confident they are far better than you are allowing for.    They may
         not choose to cover it if it is small scale crime, however. 
         On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
           cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
           that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
           with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
           the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from China,
           may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese government,
           but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese government's
           cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate there is little
           capability to distinguish.

           It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
           operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from
           SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual responsible
           for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have turned to
           SIGINT organizations for collections on computer related material,
           but this was due to the US being behind in cyber warfare, and not
           knowing where to assign responsibility. However, this has changed
           dramatically in the last couple of years.

           Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an
           extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a
           Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the online
           activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
           accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
           etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never use
           the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of
           my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible security
           cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

           Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
           these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to
           specific computer-related activities because of the difficulty in
           identifying individuals.

           I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be blown,
           would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common
           participant in \"Anonymous\" activities, was working for a State?
           Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that State
           agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what
           signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

           On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
             bit)

             1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
             actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but
             i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real
             case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
             people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
             as a serious or strategic threat. 

             2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually
             pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover,
             but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could probably
             still be attributed if important enough to those agencies.  The
             recent attack on Sony actually brings this issue up- Whoever is
             calling themselves anonymous denies they did it.  And keep in
             mind how much they have claimed an publicized attacks in the
             past, even before they were carried out.  The attack on the
             Playstation Network was more sophisticated than anonymous' usual
             work (though potentially coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS
             attacks that distracted Sony's IT security).  But whoever did
             it, again, no real damage came of it.  Congress is holding
             hearings over data security, but this is no different than the
             OC groups stealing your credit card information.  LE will go
             after them, have some success, but the threat is not that
             large. 
             On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

               Link: themeData

               I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
               have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
               nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
               threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
               (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most
               of the cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a Robin Hood
               of the internet . The interesting thing when it comes to their
               interactions with the cartels is the dubious role they play:
               at the same time they can be fighting crime by revealing
               cartel members/supporters, but they can also put lives in
               risk.

               However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
               Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can
               conduct a cyber attack under \"Anonymous\" is worrisome.
               (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

               If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
               websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
               know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
               interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
               far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries are
               they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use them
               to achieve any particular goal?

               On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                 nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything
                 else can build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the
                 threat they pose to innocent people caught up in the terror
                 that is Mexico.  By focusing on journalists or taxi drivers
                 they show little understanding of the situation.  This has
                 long term implications in not just Mexico.  They don't
                 consider the consequences of their actions and they act
                 without understanding the environment.  It was the same when
                 they released information on the Sony Playstation network to
                 protest Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                 On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                   Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                   discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on what
                   type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video
                   released by Anonymous, threatens revealing personal
                   information on cartels as well as states a member had been
                   kidnapped. I could not find any sources outside of
                   Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped.
                   According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
                   Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
                   posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
                   Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

                   Link: themeData
                   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                   distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government
                   websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with
                   a statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels,
                   including a video depicting a masked individual addressing
                   Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent
                   video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                   criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
                   identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                   journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
                   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
                   otherwise face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this
                   coming November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could
                   expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of releasing a
                   kidnapped member are not met. The potential of conflict
                   between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a
                   unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out
                   at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on
                   cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

                   What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                        o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                   security threat to Mexican cartels.
                        o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit
                   online media
                        o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico
                   to lash out at cartels

                   While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                   pose a threat
                        o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
                   identifiable information on cartel members
                        o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could
                   acquire on cartels
                        o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                   communications, identifiable information on cartels
                   members have to be considered in the realm of
                   possibilities for
                               Anonymous
                               o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability
                   to reveal illicit online activity (child pornography
                   rings)

                   Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                   ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                   result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                   limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting in
                   front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                   possible retribution. They may not even know the impact of
                   any online assault of cartels.
                        o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                   journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand
                   some of these individuals are forced to collude with
                   cartels.               Taxi drivers are often victims of
                   extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
                   identity of these individuals will not have a significant
                   impact on cartel                   operations. Politicans
                   have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
                   Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be
                   any consequences from this.
                        o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent
                   cartels are willing to go protect their operations.
                           o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                           o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                   science community before, coercing computer science majors
                   into working for them.
                           o    This provides the cartels with the
                   possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                    

                   On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                     Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                     idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                     here.

                     These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with
                     the discussion:

                          o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                     that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                          o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a
                     difference between stealing bank records from government
                     computers and overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                          o     There's no thought out process of what sort
                     of information could anon have on the cartels. What kind
                     of info is kept online and accessible to potential
                     attacks? You seem to be talking about identities, whose?
                     If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and businessmen
                     who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
                     Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in
                     previous instances. Was it because they revealed
                     operational details, because they acted as informants,
                     because they exposed links with officials or because
                     they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short,
                     what kind of information is damaging to the cartels
                     themselves?
                          o     Once you identify this info - think about if
                     anon can realistically access it and disseminate it so
                     it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any
                     intelligence capacity except for the technical ability
                     by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
                     certain networks and databases and steal information.
                     Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a
                     network that is connected to the internet (aka no
                     intranet)? Where else could information be found?
                     Government databases? Once we know what kind of
                     information is accessible, we can also know more about
                     the consequences of dissemination.
                          o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                     Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                     risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may not
                     understand the difference between an anon hacker and a
                     blogger.

                     On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                       wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                       -------- Original Message --------

                        Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                           Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                           From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
                       Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                             To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

                       you've got some of the issues here, but this is going
                       to need a lot more work

                       You need to lay out:

                       a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                       trigger section is unclear
                       b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                       is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                       capabilities
                       c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
                       anything
                       d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                       kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                       their connections

                       I also just want to point out that we have reasonable
                       reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very least has
                       some significant levels of sophistication in their
                       online presence, to include the use of cyber
                       currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no
                       reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
                       business online, in a protected fashion.

                       Karen Hooper
                       Latin America Analyst
                       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                       c: 512.750.7234
                       STRATFOR
                       www.stratfor.com
                       On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                       On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                       Link: themeData

                       Trigger

                       Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy,
                       hackers. Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group
                       famous for...?, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                       Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
                       criminal cartels, including a video released
                       depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
                       screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video
                       release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                       criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities
                       of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
                       politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
                       cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a
                       fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
                       The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal
                       cartels and hackers, presents an unprecedented war
                       front for the cartels. The vastly different operations
                       of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
                       Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in
                       handling. i believe that Anonymous has no experience
                       with the cartels. I do not believe for a second that
                       the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                        

                       In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                       mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                       reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
                       member this should be mentioned right up front.
                       Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit
                       back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
                       guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If
                       Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing information
                       on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
                       will likely respond with violence against individuals
                       revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean
                       Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
                       disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will
                       force the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous
                       threat complexity i don't understand what this means.
                       You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                       effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
                       against Anonymous remains unanswered . However,
                       cartels will continue their threats against any
                       individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
                       or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here.
                       against the cartels.

                        

                       The Battle Space

                       Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                       separate realities from each other. Anonymous operates
                       solely in sphere of the computer networks. Anonymous
                       does not experience geographical boundaries. All
                       personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber
                       space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical
                       people tho live in the real world. They have names and
                       addresses - although most of them are likely outside
                       of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their
                       technical capabilities in hacking. Any information
                       connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by
                       hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel
                       members in the midst of Mexico's population could be
                       quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
                       has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
                       Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings
                       in revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't
                       run operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money
                       via e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on
                       the web than the jihadists.)

                       Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's
                       power base consists of the perceived anonymity that
                       its members believe themselves to have, real or
                       otherwise, by operating through the internet. This
                       gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
                       and everything to practice general dickery. As the
                       popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only
                       a fraction of the large web of people who identify
                       themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious IT
                       capability. 

                       The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far
                       has been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement
                       Agencies.

                       The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets
                       in US and Mexican cities. They are run as a business,
                       always looking to maximize profits and expand. But
                       they are bricks and mortar commerce. Yes..... but they
                       use the internet to launder money and issue commands.
                       We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There is
                       no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a
                       similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
                       amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence.
                       Cartels like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing
                       different types of threats. Cartels are always
                       suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
                       While battling each other, cartels still face arrests
                       by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid
                       any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
                       have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and
                       online bloggers in order to cover details of their
                       operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for
                       this discussion. You need to focus on the possible
                       vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
                       have no cyber presence.

                        

                       Anonymous' Weapons

                       Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions
                       against criminal cartels has yet to be seen.
                       Anonymous' only ability to combat cartels lay in
                       information operations, mainly disseminating sensitive
                       information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
                       statements via social media and defaced websites in
                       Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As
                       Anonymous admitted in their video to cartels, they
                       cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a
                       targeted information operations campaign by
                       technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
                       should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream
                       media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
                       to their operations, that they have continued to
                       target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message
                       signed by Los Zetas was placed with a dead female
                       body  more relevantly, on the body of a blogger. The
                       message threatened any users who denounce cartels on
                       blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's
                       not really addressing the subheading

                       As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                       internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample
                       reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing
                       information they threaten to release. By releasing
                       identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
                       cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
                       individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
                       sensitive information is limited by what is available
                       via the Internet. Government computers connected to
                       the Internet should always be considered a possibility
                       of an attack. However, as with the compartmentalized
                       nature of the US governments computer networks,
                       information available to Mexico's intelligence
                       collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you
                       trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                        

                       Cartel's Defense

                                   A counter response to the video? by the
                       cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                       claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los
                       Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
                       hackers so... how has there not been a counter
                       response? also this undermines your statements above
                       about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
                       underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members.
                       How did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to
                       that could very well give you some indication to the
                       technical ability of the cartels . As Anonymous exists
                       in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
                       cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely
                       are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
                       whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in
                       cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
                       indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
                       cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in
                       any region of the world. Personal information
                       including locations is only available if a hacker
                       chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack
                       is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
                       work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of
                       dealing with their online enemy, if they can
                       physically reach out to them. Or start employing
                       hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger
                       things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                                   Cartels have been known to coerce the
                       services of Mexican citizens with a technical
                       background. Recruiting the help of computer science
                       majors through personal threats has been reported in
                       the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since
                       cartels operate in the world of urban violence and
                       drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance
                       of technical experts to help combat any threat by
                       computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside
                       of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is unlikely
                       cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
                       operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement
                       agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
                       experience and resources than cartels, struggle to
                       find hackers through investigations. A) How do you
                       know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
                       kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all
                       hackers are equally difficult to track down

                                   In order to compete with an online foe,
                       cartels will likely continue counter tactics they are
                       most familiar with, brute force. Cartels are still
                       capable of their HUMINT operations within Mexico
                       \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?. 
                       Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
                       communities will likely be targeted and interrogated
                       by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
                       of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
                       online media into submission i'm not really seeing the
                       online media-international hacking group connection
                       here.  The cruel manners in which cartels inflict
                       harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
                       encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
                       cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous
                       will remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek
                       out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
                       Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go
                       on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
                       inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

             --

             Sean Noonan

             Tactical Analyst

             Office: +1 512-279-9479

             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

             www.stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-25 02:33:59",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1273433_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","tristan.reed@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1276410,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged \"Anonymous\" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise \"anonymous\"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
","2011-11-10 19:47:39",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1276410_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1277592,"Re: [CT] Fwd: FW: [Customer Service/Technical Issues] Atricles	onWikileaks
","   ill handle this

   On 12/8/2010 10:14 AM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     He is a paid member under a group account.

     On 12/8/2010 10:08 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       I can easily send out our last 2 or 3 articles to this guy. Who do I
       check with to see if he's a subscriber

       Writers, please see discussion below

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Marko Papic <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
       Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2010 10:06:56 -0600
       To: CT AOR<ct@stratfor.com>
       Cc: Sean Noonan<sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
       Subject: Re: [CT] Fwd: FW: [Customer Service/Technical Issues]
       Atricles on Wikileaks
       Definitely.

       I would send a request to writers to do this with ALL our wikileak
       pieces and send it to our U.S. gov't clients directly as a package.

       Show them that we care that the Administration is being stupid.

       On 12/8/10 10:04 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         if this guy is a paying customer we could reply and quickly edit out
         the word wikileaks with a find/replace in Word and send him our last
         two articles on it.  Might as well help a brother out. 
         On 12/8/10 10:02 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

           Speaking of closing the barn door after the horses have already
           run away...

           What insane overkill.

           -------- Original Message --------

            Subject: FW: [Customer Service/Technical Issues] Atricles on      
                     Wikileaks                                                
               Date: Wed, 8 Dec 2010 09:30:43 -0600                           
               From: Service <service@stratfor.com>                           
           Reply-To: Responses List <responses@stratfor.com>, Analyst List    
                     <analysts@stratfor.com>                                  
                 To: <responses@stratfor.com>                                 

 Ryan Sims
 STRATFOR
 Global Intelligence
 T: 512-744-4087
 F: 512-744-0239
 ryan.sims@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com


 -----Original Message-----
 From: noreply@stratfor.com [mailto:noreply@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of
 vickie.reschke@conus.army.mil
 Sent: Wednesday, December 08, 2010 9:15 AM
 To: service@stratfor.com
 Subject: [Customer Service/Technical Issues] Atricles on Wikileaks

 vickie.reschke sent a message using the contact form at
 https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

 The US Army is restricted from viewing any articles with the word Wikileaks

 contained within.
 Is there any way you can replace the word from the article with something
 \"Assange\" or something else if the article doesn't actually reveal the
 classified content?
 We don't want to cause a security compromise on our system, but the fallout

 from the divulged data is a valid concern.
 In the mean time, is it possible to send me the article on \"WikiLeaks and
 U.S. Critical Infrastructure\" your site published yesterday?






         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

       --

       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

       Marko Papic

       Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

       STRATFOR

       700 Lavaca Street - 900

       Austin, Texas

       78701 USA

       P: + 1-512-744-4094

       marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-12-08 17:17:13",1,"2012-02-29 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1277592_re-ct-fwd-fw-customer-service-technical-issues-atricles.html","mike.marchio@stratfor.com","","writers@stratfor.com,ct@stratfor.com,zucha@stratfor.com,wright@stratfor.com,sean.noonan@stratfor.com",""
1279275,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored cyber
   warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing that, since you
   can conduct a cyber attack without associating with a hacker group and
   still deny / cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual attacking
   US computer assets from China, may be working by himself or on behalf of
   the Chinese government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
   government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate there is
   little capability to distinguish.

   It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network operations do
   not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from SIGINT would not
   directly help you track an individual responsible for hacking State run
   servers. In the past, I have turned to SIGINT organizations for
   collections on computer related material, but this was due to the US being
   behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
   However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of years.

   Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an extreme
   scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a Starbucks with
   free public wifi, and never attribute the online activity to something
   revealing (accessing personal email accounts, tweeting, entering personal
   information to the laptop, etc..), and begin hacking government email
   accounts then never use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
   description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible security
   cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

   Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to these
   enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to specific
   computer-related activities because of the difficulty in identifying
   individuals.

   I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be blown, would be
   the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common participant in
   \"Anonymous\" activities, was working for a State? Anonymous has denounced
   state governments before, if that State agent organizes an attack amongst
   his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

   On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a bit)

     1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything actually
     harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but i'm very
     doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real case where they
     could do some minor damage--to individual people, not not to an
     organization or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
     threat. 

     2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually pretty
     good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover, but that would be
     pretty easy to bungle, and could probably still be attributed if
     important enough to those agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually
     brings this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies
     they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an publicized
     attacks in the past, even before they were carried out.  The attack on
     the Playstation Network was more sophisticated than anonymous' usual
     work (though potentially coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that
     distracted Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
     damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data security, but
     this is no different than the OC groups stealing your credit card
     information.  LE will go after them, have some success, but the threat
     is not that large. 
     On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

       Link: themeData

       I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
       broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
       almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
       Reviewing their list of attacks
       (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of the
       cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the internet
       . The interesting thing when it comes to their interactions with the
       cartels is the dubious role they play: at the same time they can be
       fighting crime by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can
       also put lives in risk.

       However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by Anonymous.
       The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can conduct a cyber
       attack under \"Anonymous\" is worrisome.
       (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

       If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government websites,
       or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know more about these
       guys. Who they are? What are they interested in? How they operate? Who
       they have targeted so far? How can I defend myself from them? In what
       countries are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
       them to achieve any particular goal?

       On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can
         build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to
         innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing
         on journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the
         situation.  This has long term implications in not just Mexico. 
         They don't consider the consequences of their actions and they act
         without understanding the environment.  It was the same when they
         released information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
         Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
           possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
           Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by Anonymous,
           threatens revealing personal information on cartels as well as
           states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
           outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped.
           According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous
           Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers in
           Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although
           that is speculation.

           Link: themeData
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
           denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
           individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
           most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
           the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
           identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists
           who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los
           Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
           consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
           was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
           their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
           potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and
           hackers, presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
           lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting
           on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

           What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
           threat to Mexican cartels.
                o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
           media
                o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash
           out at cartels

           While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
           threat
                o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
           identifiable information on cartel members
                o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire
           on cartels
                o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
           communications, identifiable information on cartels members have
           to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                       Anonymous
                       o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
           illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

           Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
           ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result,
           their understanding of cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous
           may act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but
           this may blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even
           know the impact of any online assault of cartels.
                o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
           will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
           individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
           drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
           halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not
           have a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
           Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
           Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
           consequences from this.
                o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
           are willing to go protect their operations.
                   o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                   o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
           community before, coercing computer science majors into working
           for them.
                   o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
           discovering hackers within Mexico.

            

           On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

             Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
             there are several issues to address and fix here.

             These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
             discussion:

                  o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine
             but we can't gloss over that fact
                  o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
             between stealing bank records from government computers and
             overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                  o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
             information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
             kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
             talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
             politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
             going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
             killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
             operational details, because they acted as informants, because
             they exposed links with officials or because they somehow
             sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
             information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                  o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
             realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a
             measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity
             except for the technical ability by a very small number of its
             members to infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
             information. Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on
             a network that is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
             Where else could information be found? Government databases?
             Once we know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
             know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                  o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
             trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
             killings done by people who may not understand the difference
             between an anon hacker and a blogger.

             On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

               wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                   Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                   From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
               Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                     To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

               you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need
               a lot more work

               You need to lay out:

               a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
               section is unclear
               b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
               therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
               c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
               anything
               d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
               anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

               I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
               insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
               levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
               the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
               is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
               business online, in a protected fashion.

               Karen Hooper
               Latin America Analyst
               o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
               c: 512.750.7234
               STRATFOR
               www.stratfor.com
               On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

               On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Link: themeData

               Trigger

               Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
               lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
               denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
               released depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
               screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels.
               Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican? American?
               taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude
               with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
               release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
               The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels
               and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
               cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los
               Zetas leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
               little experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
               experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
               that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                

               In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
               mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
               their demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be
               mentioned right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
               threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so we
               understand who this guy is and why/how he was abducted. are
               not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
               information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
               will likely respond with violence against individuals revealed
               as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?.
               It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who
               collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving
               the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
               means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
               effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
               Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
               their threats against any individual using online media WC....
               you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers
               here. against the cartels.

                

               The Battle Space

               Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
               realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
               of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
               geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
               exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
               are physical people tho live in the real world. They have
               names and addresses - although most of them are likely outside
               of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their technical
               capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
               Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
               the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's
               population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
               what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
               Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
               revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run
               operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
               e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than
               the jihadists.)

               Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
               base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
               believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
               through the internet. This gives an opening for people
               disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
               dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience =
               troll. Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
               themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious IT
               capability. 

               The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
               been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

               The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US
               and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking
               to maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
               commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
               and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from
               insight. There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't
               have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
               amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels
               like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of
               threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel
               on cartel violence. While battling each other, cartels still
               face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
               avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
               have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
               bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok...
               but that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need
               to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't
               just assume they have no cyber presence.

                

               Anonymous' Weapons

               Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
               criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability
               to combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
               disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
               anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites
               in Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
               admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
               guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
               campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
               overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main
               stream media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
               to their operations, that they have continued to target
               journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
               Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
               the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
               denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
               here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

               As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
               risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to
               suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing information they
               threaten to release. By releasing identities of individuals
               cooperating with Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life
               of those individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
               sensitive information is limited by what is available via the
               Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
               should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
               However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
               governments computer networks, information available to
               Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire. 
               what are you trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                

               Cartel's Defense

                           A counter response to the video? by the cartels
               has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a
               kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun
               addressing the threat posed by hackers so... how has there not
               been a counter response? also this undermines your statements
               above about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
               underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How did
               they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very
               well give you some indication to the technical ability of the
               cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
               wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
               rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
               whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You
               can assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they are
               working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening
               cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
               information including locations is only available if a hacker
               chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy
               enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
               Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
               online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or
               start employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
               Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                           Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
               Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
               help of computer science majors through personal threats has
               been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported
               where?.  Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
               and drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of
               technical experts to help combat any threat by computer
               hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been
               demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of
               identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
               enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
               experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find
               hackers through investigations. A) How do you know they are
               not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm
               goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
               track down

                           In order to compete with an online foe, cartels
               will likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar
               with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
               operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they
               wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
               communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
               members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
               likely continue to be used to scare online media into
               submission i'm not really seeing the online
               media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
               manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
               hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life.
               Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of
               Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able to
               seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
               Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go on and
               shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 20:38:17",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1279275_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","tristan.reed@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1287547,"[alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA/AZ/US/VZ/RUSSIA/TAIWAN - Erdogan's
 cancer, Turkish plan for Syria and more - TR325
","   SOURCE: TR325 and his business partner
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former NSC official in Turkey, adviser to Erdogan,
   energy expert negotiator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   TR325's business partner has an old classmate friend who was the lead
   surgeon on Erdogan's most recent operation. He said that Erdogan has colon
   cancer, but they haven't seen the second biopsy results yet to see if it's
   metastasized. In the last operation, they cut out 20 cm of Erdogan's colon
   (I just looked up that the average colon is about 1.5m long.)  That's a
   really significant operation. Erdogan is not going to be able to travel
   for a while, and he's going to have to carry around with him a colonoscopy
   bag for at least 2-3 months.  The prognosis is not looking good, though.
   The surgeon said they were estimating 2 years for him.

   This is very likely going to cause major splits within the AKP.  Gul
   doesn't have much support.  Davutoglu is paranoid that everyone else is
   trying to undermine him (there's a definite competition between him and
   TR325.)  When I asked who Erdgogan trusts, two names were mentioned - Ali
   Babacan (Deputy PM) and Taner Yildiz (energy minister.)  Both sources were
   asking how the US is likely to react to this situation.  Would they try to
   back the military like the old days?  CHP is still very much divided. Both
   seemed to think the military won't be able to take advantage of the
   situation.

   On Syria - the conversation centered on how far Turkey is actually going
   to go.  TR325 explained that the Turkish plan is centered on civil war in
   Syria.  Officially, it's Turkey providing the main training,a rms and
   support to FSA. Unofficially, US and TUrkey are doing this together in
   deploying SOF for this mission.  Notice all the talk in the press now
   about civil war breaking out in Syria. This is the narrative Turkey and US
   want to build.  I pointed out that creating the conditions for civil war -
   actual neighborhood to neighborhood fighting - is still pretty difficult
   considering that the Alawite forces are still holding together, but he
   seemed to think that this can escalate within 2 months time. He also said
   without saying that they're working on making that happen. He acknowledges
   it'll be messy and it will take a lot of blood and time for a Sunni power
   to emerge in syria, but that this is the Turkish obligation.

   The Turkish plan to preempt the instability that would result from civil
   war conditions is to implement the buffer zone 5-40km into Syrian
   territory and set up refugee camps.  I asked what levers Iran and Syria
   have to get Turkey to back off in relation to PKK.  He said
   (half-jokingly) that Karilan is Turkey's man (ie. turkey can actually
   negotiate with him.)  But he said PKK third-in-command (still need to get
   this guy's name) answers to Syria and Iran. Turkey knows this very well
   and he says Syria and Iran are already making moves to threaten attacks
   via this faction.

   I'm left with a lot of questions --

   Given the instability that is likely to result within AKP over Erdogan's
   health, would Turkey really be making bold foreign policy moves, such as
   helping to create a civil war in Syria?

   Turkey appears very confident that Syria/Iran have the means to play the
   PKK card. Why risk that?

   Turkey knows they'll be dealing with a massive refugee crisis in Syria -
   why propel that situation?

   Some other points -

   TR325 believes AZ wiill be able to export 5-7bcm via ITGI for SDII. 
   Russia has its stake in Edison to keep a foothold in that route.  The rest
   he agrees is likely going to have to be shipped to Russia eventually since
   the Europeans aren't financing anything right now. He did say that SOCAR
   is flush with money right now and could actually put money down on these
   projects if they have the market demand and client base to do it.

   They were both asking me what is happening with Trinidad and Tobago. I
   told them I have no idea. They were asking because they are involved in a
   business deal to sell conventional subs to Trinidad and Tobago. They're
   assuming the US is preparing something for VZ.  They are also involved in
   similar submarine sales to Taiwan and Japan.
","2011-12-10 20:04:53",1,"2012-03-06 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1287547_-alpha-insight-turkey-syria-az-us-vz-russia-taiwan-erdogan-s.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1288266,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   Brown

   On 10/24/11 11:50 AM, Morgan Kauffman wrote:

     If you're going to cover the vigilante/robin-hood aspect, I found this
     in today's sweeps: 
     http://arstechnica.com/business/news/2011/10/anonymous-takes-down-darknet-child-porn-site-on-tor-network.ars?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss
     and 
     http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2395175,00.asp#fbid=KvMufY_Mq3a

     They've got a sub-group that tries to hunt down child-abuse sites and
     users - last week they published a list of 1500 names of visitors to one
     site, in addition to performing a couple of DDoS attacks to the server.

     On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

       Link: themeData

       I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
       broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
       almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
       Reviewing their list of attacks
       (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of the
       cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the internet
       . The interesting thing when it comes to their interactions with the
       cartels is the dubious role they play: at the same time they can be
       fighting crime by revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can
       also put lives in risk.

       However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by Anonymous.
       The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can conduct a cyber
       attack under \"Anonymous\" is worrisome.
       (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

       If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government websites,
       or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know more about these
       guys. Who they are? What are they interested in? How they operate? Who
       they have targeted so far? How can I defend myself from them? In what
       countries are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
       them to achieve any particular goal?

       On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can
         build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to
         innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing
         on journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the
         situation.  This has long term implications in not just Mexico. 
         They don't consider the consequences of their actions and they act
         without understanding the environment.  It was the same when they
         released information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
         Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
           possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
           Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by Anonymous,
           threatens revealing personal information on cartels as well as
           states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
           outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped.
           According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous
           Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers in
           Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although
           that is speculation.

           Link: themeData
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
           denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked
           individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
           most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
           the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing
           identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists
           who collude with criminal cartels. No mention of banks that accept
           their laundered money? That is when they would be a threat to
           their bottom line. They can always buy cabbies, cops, politicos
           and journos but tracing banks.  The hacker group demanded Los
           Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
           consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
           was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
           their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
           potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and
           hackers, presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
           lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting
           on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

           What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
           threat to Mexican cartels.
                o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
           media
                o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash
           out at cartels

           While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
           threat
                o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
           identifiable information on cartel members
                o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire
           on cartels
                o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
           communications, identifiable information on cartels members have
           to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                       Anonymous
                       o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
           illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

           Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
           ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result,
           their understanding of cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous
           may act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but
           this may blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even
           know the impact of any online assault of cartels.
                o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
           will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
           individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
           drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
           halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not
           have a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
           Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
           Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
           consequences from this.
                o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
           are willing to go protect their operations.
                   o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                   o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
           community before, coercing computer science majors into working
           for them.
                   o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
           discovering hackers within Mexico.

            

           On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

             Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
             there are several issues to address and fix here.

             These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
             discussion:

                  o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine
             but we can't gloss over that fact
                  o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
             between stealing bank records from government computers and
             overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                  o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
             information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
             kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
             talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
             politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
             going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
             killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
             operational details, because they acted as informants, because
             they exposed links with officials or because they somehow
             sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
             information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                  o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
             realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a
             measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity
             except for the technical ability by a very small number of its
             members to infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
             information. Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on
             a network that is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)?
             Where else could information be found? Government databases?
             Once we know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
             know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                  o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
             trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
             killings done by people who may not understand the difference
             between an anon hacker and a blogger.

             On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

               wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                   Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                   From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
               Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                     To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

               you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need
               a lot more work

               You need to lay out:

               a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
               section is unclear
               b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
               therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
               c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
               anything
               d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
               anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

               I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
               insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
               levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
               the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
               is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
               business online, in a protected fashion.

               Karen Hooper
               Latin America Analyst
               o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
               c: 512.750.7234
               STRATFOR
               www.stratfor.com
               On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

               On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Link: themeData

               Trigger

               Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
               lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
               denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
               released depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
               screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels.
               Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican? American?
               taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude
               with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
               release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences.
               The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels
               and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
               cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los
               Zetas leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
               little experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
               experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
               that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                

               In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
               mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
               their demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be
               mentioned right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
               threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so we
               understand who this guy is and why/how he was abducted. are
               not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
               information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels
               will likely respond with violence against individuals revealed
               as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?.
               It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who
               collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving
               the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
               means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
               effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
               Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
               their threats against any individual using online media WC....
               you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers
               here. against the cartels.

                

               The Battle Space

               Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
               realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
               of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
               geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
               exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
               are physical people tho live in the real world. They have
               names and addresses - although most of them are likely outside
               of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their technical
               capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
               Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
               the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's
               population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
               what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
               Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
               revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run
               operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
               e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than
               the jihadists.)

               Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
               base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
               believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
               through the internet. This gives an opening for people
               disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
               dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience =
               troll. Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
               themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious IT
               capability. 

               The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
               been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

               The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US
               and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking
               to maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
               commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
               and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from
               insight. There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't
               have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by large
               amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels
               like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of
               threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel
               on cartel violence. While battling each other, cartels still
               face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
               avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
               have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
               bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok...
               but that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need
               to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't
               just assume they have no cyber presence.

                

               Anonymous' Weapons

               Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
               criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability
               to combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
               disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
               anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites
               in Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
               admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
               guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
               campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
               overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main
               stream media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat
               to their operations, that they have continued to target
               journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
               Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
               the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
               denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
               here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

               As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
               risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to
               suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing information they
               threaten to release. By releasing identities of individuals
               cooperating with Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life
               of those individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate
               sensitive information is limited by what is available via the
               Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
               should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
               However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
               governments computer networks, information available to
               Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire. 
               what are you trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

                

               Cartel's Defense

                           A counter response to the video? by the cartels
               has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a
               kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun
               addressing the threat posed by hackers so... how has there not
               been a counter response? also this undermines your statements
               above about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
               underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How did
               they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very
               well give you some indication to the technical ability of the
               cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
               wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
               rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has
               whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You
               can assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they are
               working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening
               cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
               information including locations is only available if a hacker
               chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy
               enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
               Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
               online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or
               start employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
               Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                           Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
               Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
               help of computer science majors through personal threats has
               been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported
               where?.  Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
               and drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of
               technical experts to help combat any threat by computer
               hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been
               demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of
               identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
               enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
               experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find
               hackers through investigations. A) How do you know they are
               not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm
               goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
               track down

                           In order to compete with an online foe, cartels
               will likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar
               with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
               operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they
               wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
               communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
               members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
               likely continue to be used to scare online media into
               submission i'm not really seeing the online
               media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
               manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
               hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life.
               Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of
               Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able to
               seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the
               Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go on and
               shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

 --
 Sincerely,

 Marko Primorac
 Tactical Analyst
 marko.primorac@stratfor.com
 Tel: +1 512.744.4300
 Cell: +1 717.557.8480
","2011-10-24 18:59:47",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1288266_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","marko.primorac@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1288283,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   I agree. I haven't seen any defining attributes of Anonymous as a group.
   They may not even know the identities of each other. There are several
   facebook / twitter Anonymous pages, which seem to be run by different
   individuals.

   What about defining Anonymous in terms of the individual? Instead of
   saying Anonymous attacking cartels, Individuals acting under the Anonymous
   name....

   -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents have access to,
   and doubt they have such information that provides any sort of existential
   threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 
   This is a problem with the threat assessment. Technically, anything cartel
   related (emails, online transactions, Mexican LEA information, etc.) would
   be available to a hacker, but we don't know if they have had access to
   this information, or if the hackers interested in harming cartels are
   capable. It's not even confirmed hackers have revealing information on
   cartel supporters which the video claims.

   On 10/24/11 1:11 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They
     are a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
     online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do
     this in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people
     joining Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or
     something like that. 

     Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

     On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
       these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
       I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
       whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
       because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
       revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
       understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
       expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
       coercion.

       Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
       cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of
       el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication
       as a tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable
       intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels. That's a
       physical threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify
       that Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact
       to the cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival
       cartels or the GoM. They may release information on a given politician
       being linked to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the
       politician will feel an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a
       link, doesn't make it true). It would be up to others to take action. 
       I think the way you have it worded in the above sentence is good. 
       Follow with a sentence explaining the rest of it, because readers will
       have the same question Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat
       to cartels would come in what information anonymous could expose that
       is useful to their enemies'

       Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
       activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to
       conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how
       much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
       vulnerability I have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't
       have specific examples which could be used in assessing their
       vulnerability online.

       by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
       arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
       should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
       politicians as colluding.
       On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
         possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
         Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using
         the banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
         cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
         find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
         being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico
         and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
         posting flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the
         Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is
         good and will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a
         quick explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding
         something in the explaining the flyers will work]

         Link: themeData
         Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
         denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate
         websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
         statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
         depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
         October 10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold
         threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
         releasing identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they specify
         whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
          What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
         group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
         face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
         their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
         potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
         presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational
         criminal organization, it's not really unique.  Many such
         organizations do their crimes online, and have been hacked in
         response--like the nigerian princess scams. I think you should just
         say it's a unique threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out
         at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels
         dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
         threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a
         gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for
         the using publication as a tool to force government action. If you
         reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it against
         the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
         media
              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
         at cartels

         While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
         threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

                 -The threat is in the information they can expose that may
     be of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or
     other cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but
     i could imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the
     public).

              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
         identifiable information on cartel members 
              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
         cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
         section/paragraph]
              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
         identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
         the realm of possibilities for
                     Anonymous
                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
         illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels
         are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We
         don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
         operational vulnerability

        -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
     (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
     cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
     replaceable. 
                 -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents
     have access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any
     sort of existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

         Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
         world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that
         some of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to
         the violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is
         there are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems
         very possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have
         joined up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of
         cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other
         countries may act with confidence when sitting in front of a
         computer, but this may blind them to any possible retribution. They
         may not even know the impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the
         part below and above is written rather normatively.  We need to take
         that out.  just state the facts]
              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
         will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
         individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
         drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
         halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not have
         a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
         Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
         consequences from this. by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you
         mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens all
         the time.
              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
         are willing to go protect their operations.
                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                 o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
         community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
         them.
                 o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
         discovering hackers within Mexico.
         need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply
         publishing tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the
         same camp as the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that
         their damage will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can
         do--limited.  But maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are
         no longer challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

          

         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
           there are several issues to address and fix here.

           These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
           discussion:

                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
           we can't gloss over that fact
                o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
           between stealing bank records from government computers and
           overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
           information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
           kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
           politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
           going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
           killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
           operational details, because they acted as informants, because
           they exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied
           the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is
           damaging to the cartels themselves?
                o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
           realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure
           of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for
           the technical ability by a very small number of its members to
           infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information.
           Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that
           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
           information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
           of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
           consequences of dissemination.
                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
           back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings
           done by people who may not understand the difference between an
           anon hacker and a blogger.

           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                 From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
             Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                   To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

             you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
             lot more work

             You need to lay out:

             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
             is unclear
             b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
             therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
             d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
             who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

             I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
             insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
             levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
             the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
             is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
             business online, in a protected fashion.

             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
             c: 512.750.7234
             STRATFOR
             www.stratfor.com
             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             Link: themeData

             Trigger

             Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
             Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
             out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
             denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
             depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
             exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
             makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
             releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
             politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
             The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
             member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
             between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
             unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
             operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
             Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
             believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
             not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience
             with hackers.

              

             In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned
             as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
             demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned
             right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening
             to hit back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
             guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous'
             claims of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
             operations are true, cartels will likely respond with violence
             against individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you
             mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
             disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the
             GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
             don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
             Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
             against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
             continue their threats against any individual using online media
             WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about
             bloggers here. against the cartels.

              

             The Battle Space

             Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
             realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
             of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
             geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
             exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
             are physical people tho live in the real world. They have names
             and addresses - although most of them are likely outside of MX.)
              Anonymous' power base consists of their technical capabilities
             in hacking. Any information connected to the Internet is
             vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of
             individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population
             could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
             has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
             company with a website that brings in revenue, but it does not
             really matter if you don't run operations on the web. Los Z
             don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far less
             dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

             Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
             base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
             believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
             through the internet. This gives an opening for people
             disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
             dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
             Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
             themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious IT
             capability. 

             The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
             from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

             The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
             Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
             maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
             commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
             and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight.
             There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
             capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
             and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
             experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
             always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
             While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
             Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
             the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media
             outlets. Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to
             cover details of their operations. ok... but that's kind of a
             red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus on the
             possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
             have no cyber presence.

              

             Anonymous' Weapons

             Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
             criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
             combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
             disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
             anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites in
             Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
             admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
             guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
             campaign by technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
             should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream media
             outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
             operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
             bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed
             with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a
             blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce cartels
             on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
             really addressing the subheading

             As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
             risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
             Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
             release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
             Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
             individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
             information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
             Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
             considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
             compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
             networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence
             collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to
             say here? This isn't clear at all

              

             Cartel's Defense

                         A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
             yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
             member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
             threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
             response? also this undermines your statements above about how
             Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
             vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
             Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you
             some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
             Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
             cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed
             for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
             dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and
             we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
             disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can
             operate in any region of the world. Personal information
             including locations is only available if a hacker chooses to
             divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
             figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels
             are only capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can
             physically reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of
             their own under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
             Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                         Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
             Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
             help of computer science majors through personal threats has
             been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
             Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
             trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
             experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
             identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
             is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
             operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such
             as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources
             than cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations.
             A) How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
             kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are
             equally difficult to track down

                         In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
             likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with,
             brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
             operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they
             wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
             communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
             members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
             likely continue to be used to scare online media into submission
             i'm not really seeing the online media-international hacking
             group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
             inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
             encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel
             violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to be
             seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
             the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff
             and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
             inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 20:50:49",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1288283_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","tristan.reed@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1290168,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else can build
   off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent
   people caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on journalists
   or taxi drivers they show little understanding of the situation.  This has
   long term implications in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the
   consequences of their actions and they act without understanding the
   environment.  It was the same when they released information on the Sony
   Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a
   point. 

   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
     cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
     to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
     personal information on cartels as well as states a member had been
     kidnapped. I could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of
     the individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
     (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an
     individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
     Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

     Link: themeData
     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
     denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
     drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent
     video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels
     in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The
     hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
     otherwise face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming
     November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
     reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met.
     The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
     presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at
     online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing
     with any headaches from hackers before. 

     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
     Mexican cartels.
          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
     cartels

     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
     information on cartel members
          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
     cartels
          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
     identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
     realm of possibilities for
                 Anonymous
                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
     illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent
     world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of
     cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when
     sitting in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
     retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
     cartels.
          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
     cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
     forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
     victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
     identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
     cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
     working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor) before, however
     there has yet to be any consequences from this.
          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
     willing to go protect their operations.
             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
     before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
             o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
     discovering hackers within Mexico.

      

     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
       are several issues to address and fix here.

       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
       discussion:

            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
       can't gloss over that fact
            o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
       stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
       www.loszetas.com main page.
            o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
       could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
       accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
       businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
       Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
       instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
       they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
       because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
       kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
            o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
       realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
       damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
       technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
       certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
       information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
       Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
       accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
       dissemination.
            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
       back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by
       people who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker
       and a blogger.

       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

         -------- Original Message --------

          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
             From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
         Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
               To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

         you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
         more work

         You need to lay out:

         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
         unclear
         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
         therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
         breaches their systems or exposes their connections

         I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
         insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
         of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to
         assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
         protected fashion.

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         Link: themeData

         Trigger

         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
         Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out
         at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
         Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...?
         a person talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With
         the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
         the criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
         Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group
         demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
         consequences. The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal
         cartels and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
         cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
         experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no experience
         with the cartels. I do not believe for a second that the cartels
         have no experience with hackers.

          

         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
         day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
         releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back.
         Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how
         he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing
         revealing information on cartel members and operations are true,
         cartels will likely respond with violence against individuals
         revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials
         who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
         Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this means. You
         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel
         will be able to retaliate against Anonymous remains unanswered .
         However, cartels will continue their threats against any individual
         using online media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not
         talking about bloggers here. against the cartels.

          

         The Battle Space

         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
         realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
         the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
         cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
         tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses - although
         most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base
         consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any information
         connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers.
         (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of
         Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
         what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
         Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in revenue,
         but it does not really matter if you don't run operations on the
         web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far
         less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
         consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
         themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
         internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
         and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
         goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web
         of people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of
         serious IT capability. 

         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
         targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
         Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
         maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
         commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
         issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.
         Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and escalating
         brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing
         different types of threats. Cartels are always suffering at the
         hands of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each other,
         cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels
         wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
         have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
         bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok... but
         that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus
         on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume
         they have no cyber presence.

          

         Anonymous' Weapons

         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
         criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
         combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
         sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
         statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean
         so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a
         targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
         individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
         Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
         such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
         target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
         Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
         body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce
         cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
         really addressing the subheading

         As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
         disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous
         is capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
         cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals.
         Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive information is limited
         by what is available via the Internet. Government computers
         connected to the Internet should always be considered a possibility
         of an attack. However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the
         US governments computer networks, information available to Mexico's
         intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you
         trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

          

         Cartel's Defense

                     A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet
         to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by
         Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed
         by hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also
         this undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley
         internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that
         could very well give you some indication to the technical ability of
         the cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
         wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely
         are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole
         agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume
         (and we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
         disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in
         any region of the world. Personal information including locations is
         only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject
         of the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
         work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
         online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
         employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger things
         have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                     Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
         Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of
         computer science majors through personal threats has been reported
         in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels
         operate in the world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they
         will likely need the assistance of technical experts to help combat
         any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside
         of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable
         of identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
         experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers
         through investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
         (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not
         all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                     In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
         likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
         force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
         Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
         with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be
         targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
         public display of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
         online media into submission i'm not really seeing the online
         media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
         manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer hackers
         have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
         cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to
         be seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
         the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff and
         simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 17:22:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1290168_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1294897,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   yes, marc called them a mob - and that seems accurate

   On 10/24/11 1:33 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     Good point. 
     In terrorist terms they are more like grassroots people than AQ core. 
     From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
     Reply-To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:11:05 -0500
     To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
     Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They
     are a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
     online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do
     this in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people
     joining Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or
     something like that. 

     Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

     On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
       these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
       I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
       whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
       because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
       revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
       understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
       expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
       coercion.

       Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
       cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of
       el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication
       as a tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable
       intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels. That's a
       physical threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify
       that Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact
       to the cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival
       cartels or the GoM. They may release information on a given politician
       being linked to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the
       politician will feel an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a
       link, doesn't make it true). It would be up to others to take action. 
       I think the way you have it worded in the above sentence is good. 
       Follow with a sentence explaining the rest of it, because readers will
       have the same question Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat
       to cartels would come in what information anonymous could expose that
       is useful to their enemies'

       Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
       activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to
       conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how
       much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
       vulnerability I have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't
       have specific examples which could be used in assessing their
       vulnerability online.

       by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
       arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
       should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
       politicians as colluding.
       On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
         possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
         Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using
         the banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
         cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
         find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
         being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico
         and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
         posting flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the
         Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is
         good and will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a
         quick explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding
         something in the explaining the flyers will work]

         Link: themeData
         Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
         denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate
         websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
         statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
         depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
         October 10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold
         threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
         releasing identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they specify
         whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
          What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
         group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
         face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
         their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
         potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
         presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational
         criminal organization, it's not really unique.  Many such
         organizations do their crimes online, and have been hacked in
         response--like the nigerian princess scams. I think you should just
         say it's a unique threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out
         at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels
         dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
         threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a
         gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for
         the using publication as a tool to force government action. If you
         reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it against
         the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
         media
              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
         at cartels

         While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
         threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

                 -The threat is in the information they can expose that may
     be of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or
     other cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but
     i could imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the
     public).

              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
         identifiable information on cartel members 
              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
         cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
         section/paragraph]
              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
         identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
         the realm of possibilities for
                     Anonymous
                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
         illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels
         are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We
         don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
         operational vulnerability

        -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
     (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
     cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
     replaceable. 
                 -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents
     have access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any
     sort of existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

         Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
         world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that
         some of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to
         the violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is
         there are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems
         very possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have
         joined up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of
         cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other
         countries may act with confidence when sitting in front of a
         computer, but this may blind them to any possible retribution. They
         may not even know the impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the
         part below and above is written rather normatively.  We need to take
         that out.  just state the facts]
              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
         will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
         individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
         drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
         halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not have
         a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
         Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
         consequences from this. by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you
         mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens all
         the time.
              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
         are willing to go protect their operations.
                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                 o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
         community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
         them.
                 o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
         discovering hackers within Mexico.
         need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply
         publishing tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the
         same camp as the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that
         their damage will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can
         do--limited.  But maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are
         no longer challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

          

         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
           there are several issues to address and fix here.

           These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
           discussion:

                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
           we can't gloss over that fact
                o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
           between stealing bank records from government computers and
           overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
           information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
           kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
           politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
           going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
           killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
           operational details, because they acted as informants, because
           they exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied
           the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is
           damaging to the cartels themselves?
                o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
           realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure
           of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for
           the technical ability by a very small number of its members to
           infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information.
           Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that
           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
           information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
           of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
           consequences of dissemination.
                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
           back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings
           done by people who may not understand the difference between an
           anon hacker and a blogger.

           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                 From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
             Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                   To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

             you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
             lot more work

             You need to lay out:

             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
             is unclear
             b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
             therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
             d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
             who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

             I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
             insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
             levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
             the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
             is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
             business online, in a protected fashion.

             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
             c: 512.750.7234
             STRATFOR
             www.stratfor.com
             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             Link: themeData

             Trigger

             Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
             Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
             out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
             denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
             depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
             exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
             makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
             releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
             politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
             The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
             member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
             between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
             unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
             operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
             Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
             believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
             not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience
             with hackers.

              

             In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned
             as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
             demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned
             right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening
             to hit back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
             guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous'
             claims of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
             operations are true, cartels will likely respond with violence
             against individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you
             mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
             disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the
             GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
             don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
             Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
             against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
             continue their threats against any individual using online media
             WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about
             bloggers here. against the cartels.

              

             The Battle Space

             Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
             realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
             of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
             geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
             exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
             are physical people tho live in the real world. They have names
             and addresses - although most of them are likely outside of MX.)
              Anonymous' power base consists of their technical capabilities
             in hacking. Any information connected to the Internet is
             vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of
             individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population
             could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
             has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
             company with a website that brings in revenue, but it does not
             really matter if you don't run operations on the web. Los Z
             don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far less
             dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

             Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
             base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
             believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
             through the internet. This gives an opening for people
             disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
             dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
             Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
             themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious IT
             capability. 

             The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
             from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

             The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
             Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
             maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
             commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
             and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight.
             There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
             capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
             and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
             experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
             always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
             While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
             Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
             the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media
             outlets. Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to
             cover details of their operations. ok... but that's kind of a
             red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus on the
             possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
             have no cyber presence.

              

             Anonymous' Weapons

             Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
             criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
             combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
             disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
             anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites in
             Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
             admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
             guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
             campaign by technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
             should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream media
             outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
             operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
             bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed
             with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a
             blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce cartels
             on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
             really addressing the subheading

             As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
             risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
             Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
             release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
             Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
             individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
             information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
             Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
             considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
             compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
             networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence
             collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to
             say here? This isn't clear at all

              

             Cartel's Defense

                         A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
             yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
             member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
             threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
             response? also this undermines your statements above about how
             Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
             vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
             Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you
             some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
             Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
             cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed
             for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
             dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and
             we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
             disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can
             operate in any region of the world. Personal information
             including locations is only available if a hacker chooses to
             divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
             figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels
             are only capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can
             physically reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of
             their own under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
             Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                         Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
             Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
             help of computer science majors through personal threats has
             been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
             Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
             trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
             experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
             identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
             is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
             operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such
             as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources
             than cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations.
             A) How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
             kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are
             equally difficult to track down

                         In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
             likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with,
             brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
             operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they
             wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
             communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
             members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
             likely continue to be used to scare online media into submission
             i'm not really seeing the online media-international hacking
             group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
             inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
             encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel
             violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to be
             seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
             the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff
             and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
             inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 20:39:58",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1294897_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1302136,"Fwd: Re: Fwd: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
 conflict in context
","   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Re: Fwd: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta    
            conflict in context                                               
      Date: Wed, 02 Nov 2011 12:14:05 -0500                                   
      From: kyle.rhodes <kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com>                            
        To: Maverick Fisher <fisher@stratfor.com>                             
        CC: Eric Brown <eric.brown@stratfor.com>, Megan Headley               
            <megan.headley@stratfor.com>, scott stewart                       
            <stewart@stratfor.com>                                            

   Some quick ideas  -today's crazy busy for me again

   \"Anonymous\" Threats In Context of Mexican Cartel Violence

   Anonymous, Cartel Conflict in Context of Ongoing Violence

   Anonymous vs The Cartels: New Chapter in Mexican Drug Conflict

   On 11/2/11 12:02 PM, Maverick Fisher wrote:

     Thoughts?

     Sent from my iPhone
     Begin forwarded message:

       From: scott stewart <stewart@stratfor.com>
       Date: November 2, 2011 11:15:37 AM CDT
       To: Maverick Fisher <fisher@stratfor.com>
       Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
       conflict in context

       I'm a terrible advertising person.
       Mexico: Examining the Anonymous/Zeta Cartel Conflict
       From: Maverick Fisher <fisher@stratfor.com>
       Date: Wed, 2 Nov 2011 11:05:04 -0500 (CDT)
       To: scott stewart <stewart@stratfor.com>
       Subject: Fwd: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
       conflict in context
       Any thoughts on tweaking the title?

       Sent from my iPhone
       Begin forwarded message:

         From: Megan Headley <megan.headley@stratfor.com>
         Date: November 2, 2011 10:54:14 AM CDT
         To: Maverick Fisher <fisher@stratfor.com>
         Cc: Kyle Rhodes <kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com>,  Eric Brown
         <eric.brown@stratfor.com>, Mike Marchio <mike.marchio@stratfor.com>
         Subject: Re: Fwd: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs.
         Zeta conflict in context

         Hey Maverick,

         You're right about this weekly. Yes, I think Mexico / Cartel should
         both be in the title if possible. Not sure if EB has other
         suggestions.

         Megan

         On 11/1/11 2:47 PM, Maverick Fisher wrote:

           Very good weekly -- I'm sure this is going to get a lot play given
           the topic, so let's be sure to pick our title wisely. I'm OK with
           Stick's title, but do you think Mexico or Cartel should be in
           there?
           Begin forwarded message:

             From: scott stewart <stewart@stratfor.com>
             Subject: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
             conflict in context
             Date: November 1, 2011 1:11:00 PM CDT
             To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
             Reply-To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
              Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context
             On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a
             message to the internet  in which it stated that it was
             continuing with its campaign against the Mexican criminal
             cartels and their governmentsupporters despite the inherent
             danger.
              
             The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be
             practicing proper online security measures to abstain from
             participating. It also urged individuals associated with
             Anonymous to not conduct physical pamphlet drops, participate in
             protests, wear or purchase Guy Fawkes masks, or use Guy Fawkes
             imagery in their internet or physical world activities.  Guy
             Fawkes was British Catholic conspirator who was involved in a
             plot to bomb the British Parliament in 1605, and who has become
             somewhat of an Anarchist icon in the United Kingdom. The British
             celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each year on Nov. 5, and the day has
             special meaning for the anarchists.  
              
             It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video,
             Anonymous set Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release
             the Anonymous associate who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz
             by Los Zetas. The Anonymous associate was reportedly abducted
             during an Anonymous leaflet campaign called Operation
             Paperstorm.
              
             The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los
             Zetas, dubbed \"# OpCartel\" is dangerous and noted that the
             collective would be assembling a hand-picked group of known and
             trusted associates to participate in a special task force to
             execute the operation. It asked supporters to use a software
             widget they had developed in order to anonymously pass
             information pertaining to drug trafficking to the task force,
             which will then distribute it. 
              
             With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of
             Anonymous not backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we
             thought it would be useful to provide some context to the
             present conflict between Anonymous and Los Zetas and to also
             address some of its potential implications.
              
             Context
              
             First it issignificant to understand that the epicenter of this
             event is Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place over the
             past few months in terms of Mexico's cartel wars. The port city
             also serves as a critical transportation hub for the narcotics
             smuggling activities of the Los Zetas cartel. Because of this,
             Stratfor has identified Veracruz as
             [link http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues ] a
             bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the
             Los Zetas cartel in the coming months. 
              
             One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
             cartel's push into the Zeta stronghold using the
             [link http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz ] Cartel
             de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
             Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps
             of over 50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and
             22.  On Oct. 25, Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo
             Pitalua-Carillo, \"El Bam Bam,\" who was Los Zetas plaza boss in
             Veracruz.  This means that in Veracruz at the present time, Los
             Zetas are feeling pressure from both the Government of Mexico
             and the CJNG.
              
             Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective
             begin to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what
             Anonymous saw as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas
             cartel, they launched Operation Paperstorm, in which activists
             associated with the Anonymous collective distributed leaflets
             throughout Veracruz claiming the state government supports Los
             Zetas.  They conducted major leaflet distributions on Aug. 13,
             20, and 29. They also released videos to the internet on Aug. 26
             and 29, condemning the State of Veracruz. (According to the Oct.
             6 Anonymous video, Los Zetas allegedly kidnapped one of the
             activists involved in Operation Paperstorm.)
              
             Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in
             setting the stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and
             killed and their bodies hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo
             Laredo, Tamaulipas state.  Signs left with the bodies signified
             that Los Zetas had killed the pair because they had posted
             information pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs that specialize in
             reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the body of
             Marisol Macias Casteneda was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo
             Laredo.   Macias who worked for a local newspaper allegedly
             posted on cartel blogs using the nickname \"Laredo Girl.\" A
             message found with her body noted that she was killed by Los
             Zetas due to her online activities.
              
             Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed
             responsibility for a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack
             conducted against the official website of the state of Veracruz.
             Although she was killed by Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas,
             Anonymous said their attack on the Veracruz state website was
             because of the death of Laredo Girl.
              
             It is also important to recognize that Anonymous was also
             unhappy with the State of Veracruz over the decision of the
             state to prosecute two individuals who had posted false
             kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug. 25. The false reports
             alleged that a group of children had been abducted from a
             Veracruz school and the panic caused by the report allegedly
             resulted in some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified
             parents rushed to the school to check o n their children. The
             so-called \"twitter terrorists\" were initially charged with
             offenses that could have carried a 30-year sentence. Anonymous,
             which has absolute freedom of speech on the internet as one of
             its foundational principles, took umbrage with this stiff
             penalty for the Twitter case - especially because it stood in
             stark contrast with the impunity many cartel figures enjoy in
             Mexico. 
              
              
             Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous
             threatened Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped
             anonymous activist, Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in
             light of the approaching Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an,
             [link http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire ] analysis
             of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  
              
             Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a
             great deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a
             very interesting response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes
             the fast that it is a collective of people and not an
             organization.  As some Anonymousactivists were backing off the
             issue, erasing online user accounts, suggesting that the
             operation against Los Zetas had been a hoax and claiming that no
             activist had been kidnapped, other activists suggested that the
             campaign should be suspended. Still other activists became more
             strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign
             continue. Since Anonymous is a collective, activists can pick
             and choose which actions they will participate in. that means in
             his case that those activists who want to refrain from the
             campaign will and those who want to participate will continue
             it.
              
             This will to continue was manifested on Oct. 29, the personal
             website of Gustavo RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of
             the Mexican state of Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a
             message from Anonymous Mexico stating that Rosario was
             aZeta.  It was also reflected in the tone of the Oct. 31
             message. Some activists associated with Anonymous clearly feel
             compelled to continue with the campaign due to the outpouring of
             public support they received in the wake of the media coverage.
             According to the Oct 31. Video statement:
              
             \"we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well
             as the voices of people crying for help. We must remember that
             we are on the side of the people, and we cannot let down the
             people, especially in critical moments like the one they
             currently live in.\"
              
             We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will
             continue the campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will
             respond.
              
             Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars
             is better than Star Trek) 
              
             The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet
             as a place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to
             taunt and even degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted
             videos of them torturing, executing and beheading members of
             opposing cartels. They also frequently monitor narco blogs and
             sometimeseven post on them.  As demonstrated by the blogger
             killings in Nuevo Laredo in September, Los Zetas appear to
             possess at least some rudimentary capability to trace online
             activity to people in thephysical world. It is not known if they
             employ their own team of dedicated cyber experts or if they rely
             on sources within the Mexican government - although the most
             likely answer is probably a little of both. 
              
              
             In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay
             Pal following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and
             the UK have arrested numerous individuals associated with
             Anonymous who allegedly participated in the attack. In June
             2011, Turkey arrested dozens of activists associated with
             Anonymousactions conducted against the Turkish government for
             its efforts to establish a national internet filtering system.
              
             Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts
             lightly. Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information
             that will damage Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact
             that this group has decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will
             result in some sort of response. The big question is: do
             theypossess the capability to effectively trace the organizers
             of the Anonymousaction against them?
              
             One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is
             intentionally amorphous - it is also as transnational as the
             internet, and it would not be surprising if many of those chosen
             to participate in the operation against Los Zetas are located
             outside of Mexico in locations such as the U.S. and Europe which
             are outside the immediate reach of Los Zetas.
              
             But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other
             way.  If Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from
             an internet cafe, behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their
             heads, it will be very difficult to prove that they
             were not associated with Anonymous.  As Anonymous noted in their
             Oct. 31 video, this is dangerous business.
              
              
             The Big Picture
              
             One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the
             way in which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the
             Mexican middle and upper classes have been deeply affected by
             the criminal cartels and theviolence the practice. We talk to
             many people in Mexico who are fearful of being kidnapped. In
             many communities, especially places like Juarez, Torreon,
             Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen are being caught in a
             terrible bind. On one hand, they are receiving ever-increasing
             extortion demands from the cartels, while at the same time their
             business revenues are dwindling because people are afraid to go
             out due to the violence associated with those same cartels. This
             is forcing many businessmen out of business. It is also creating
             a great deal of frustration and resentment.
              
             At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous
             countries in the world for journalists, and many media companies
             practice heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the
             wake of the September blogger killings some of the narco blogs,
             like Blog del Narco, have also exhibited strong signs of fear
             inspired self-censorship.   This means that the legitimate press
             is not able to be of any real aid to the Mexican people.
              
             Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government,
             which is well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment
             feeding Anonymous' original campaign in Veracruz.  This
             frustration has lead some people to begin to talk about
             vigilante groups to fight the cartels - though that has been
             attempted before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of
             [link http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks ] La
             Familia Michoacan, which originally began as such a vigilante
             group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.
              
             This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable
             to rely on their government, the media or even armed vigilante
             groups for assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to
             view its form of cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their
             frustration -- and a safe way to pass oninformation pertaining
             to cartel activities.  If this occurs, we may see people not
             just in Veracruz and other Zeta controlled areas providing
             information to Anonymous, but citizens from all over the
             country.
              
             Also, in the same way that cartels leak information
             togovernments in an effort to use them as weapons against their
             rivals, we could also very well see groups such as the Sinaloa
             cartel provide information on Los Zetas to Anonymous. This of
             course would provide even more reason for Los Zetas to strike
             out against the activist collective.
              
             If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and
             if Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could
             resort to releasing sensitive information to the U.S. Drug
             Enforcement Administration in an attempt to damage Los Zetas.
             This would be an incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous
             has viewed itself as an opponent of the U.S. government in cases
             like Wikileaks. 

           --
           Maverick Fisher
           Director, Writers and Graphics
           STRATFOR
           221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
           Austin, TX 78701
           T: +1 512 744 4322 | F: +1 512 744 4334
           www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Kyle Rhodes
 Public Relations Manager
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com

 kyle.rhodes@stratfor.com
 +1.512.744.4309
 www.twitter.com/stratfor
 www.facebook.com/stratfor
","2011-11-02 18:18:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1302136_fwd-re-fwd-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs.html","megan.headley@stratfor.com","","ryan.bridges@stratfor.com",""
1305059,"[CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
   cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
   to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing personal
   information on cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I
   could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
   being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
   Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers
   in Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
   speculation.

   Link: themeData
   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
   denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
   drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
   criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
   addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent video
   release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
   Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
   politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
   consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
   demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
   conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a unique
   threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at online bloggers,
   but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
   from hackers before. 

   What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
        o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
   Mexican cartels.
        o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
        o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
   cartels

   While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
        o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
   information on cartel members
        o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
   cartels
        o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
   identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
   realm of possibilities for
               Anonymous
               o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit
   online activity (child pornography rings)

   Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent world
   of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of cartel
   activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
   in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
   retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
   cartels.
        o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will cost
   lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are forced
   to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often victims of
   extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
   individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel                  
   operations. Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero
   & Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any consequences
   from this.
        o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
   willing to go protect their operations.
           o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
           o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
   before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
           o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of discovering
   hackers within Mexico.

    

   On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there are
     several issues to address and fix here.

     These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the discussion:

          o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
     can't gloss over that fact
          o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
     stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
     www.loszetas.com main page.
          o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
     could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
     accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
     identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
     businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
     Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
     instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
     they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
     because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
     kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
          o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
     realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
     damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
     technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
     certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
     information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
     internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
     Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
     accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
     dissemination.
          o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace back
     attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by people
     who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker and a
     blogger.

     On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

       wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

       -------- Original Message --------

        Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
           Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
           From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
       Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
             To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

       you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
       more work

       You need to lay out:

       a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
       unclear
       b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and therefore
       their vulnerabilities and capabilities
       c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
       d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
       breaches their systems or exposes their connections

       I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable insight
       that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels of
       sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of cyber
       currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume
       that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a protected
       fashion.

       Karen Hooper
       Latin America Analyst
       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
       c: 512.750.7234
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

       On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       Link: themeData

       Trigger

       Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers. Anonymous,
       a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out at drug
       cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
       criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...? a person
       talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most
       recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
       criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican?
       American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who
       collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
       release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. The
       potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
       presents an unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
       different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
       Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
       believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do not
       believe for a second that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

        

       In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
       day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
       releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up front.
       Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
       enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how he was
       abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
       information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels will
       likely respond with violence against individuals revealed as opposing
       cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely
       that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will
       force the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
       don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
       Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
       against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
       their threats against any individual using online media WC.... you
       mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here. against
       the cartels.

        

       The Battle Space

       Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate realities
       from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of the computer
       networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical boundaries. All
       personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
       not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in the real
       world. They have names and addresses - although most of them are
       likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their
       technical capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
       Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's
       of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
       be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous has done are
       DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big company with a
       website that brings in revenue, but it does not really matter if you
       don't run operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
       e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than the
       jihadists.)

       Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
       consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
       themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
       internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything and
       everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme goes,
       anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
       people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious
       IT capability. 

       The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
       targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

       The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
       Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to maximize
       profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar commerce. Yes.....
       but they use the internet to launder money and issue commands. We know
       that Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to assume that
       Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by
       large amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like
       Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of threats.
       Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
       violence. While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
       Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in the
       flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media outlets.
       Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to cover details of
       their operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
       discussion. You need to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the
       cartels. Don't just assume they have no cyber presence.

        

       Anonymous' Weapons

       Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
       criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to combat
       cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating sensitive
       information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via
       social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and that
       we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to cartels, they
       cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a targeted information
       operations campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
       overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream
       media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
       operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
       bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed with a
       dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a blogger. The
       message threatened any users who denounce cartels on blogging
       websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not really addressing the
       subheading

       As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
       disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous is
       capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
       releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican cartels,
       Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals. Anonymous's ability
       to disseminate sensitive information is limited by what is available
       via the Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
       should always be considered a possibility of an attack. However, as
       with the compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
       networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence collection
       may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This
       isn't clear at all

        

       Cartel's Defense

                   A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet to
       see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by Los
       Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
       hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
       undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley internet
       based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How
       did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well
       give you some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
       Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
       cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed for
       them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies dedicated to
       fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
       indicating that) they are working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers
       threatening cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
       information including locations is only available if a hacker chooses
       to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
       figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels are only
       capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can physically
       reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of their own under their
       payroll? Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                   Cartels have been known to coerce the services of Mexican
       citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of computer
       science majors through personal threats has been reported in the past
       where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
       world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will likely need
       the assistance of technical experts to help combat any threat by
       computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has
       been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying
       any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
       such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources than
       cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations. A) How do
       you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???)
       B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
       track down

                   In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
       likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
       force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
       Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
       with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
       and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
       of violence will likely continue to be used to scare online media into
       submission i'm not really seeing the online media-international
       hacking group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
       inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely encountered
       before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the
       confidence of Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able
       to seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos
       could call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any
       inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 16:32:57",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1305059_-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","tristan.reed@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1305171,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   Sean, just to be clear

   Your point is that Anonymous hasn't mattered?  Is your argument that
   hackers haven't mattered either?  because if Anonymous is a mob of hackers
   as you argue, how haven't they mattered to their targets?  what about all
   the money spent fighting them?  and as Tristan just pointed out - how
   about HBGary Federal?  He said the CEO's SSN and address were posted on
   Twitter.  What about all the sensitive emails that were lost?  We have no
   way of knowing what was in those emails, or how they are being used to
   make money at the expense of HBGary.  I have always agreed that they
   haven't reached a level of threat to the US, but that surely doesn't mean
   they won't.  And there are quite a few countries, organizations, and
   people below that rather high standard who could not withstand an attack,
   including an email purge of personal emails onto the web. 

   On 10/24/11 7:33 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     As far as Aurora, I haven't followed it closely. Did they ever identify
     the attackers or number of attackers? I thought the target set was the
     only thing that led people to believe the Chinese government was
     responsible.

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
     responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating cyber
     intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this case HUMINT is
     just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT capabilities does not
     indicate its capabilities in tracking hackers. NSA may have there own
     department for tracking hackers but it does not make it SIGINT.

     Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

     Wikipedia provides an indepth explanation on SIGINT . But in short,
     SIGINT is the capability in exploiting signals provided by communication
     devices, and what can be obtained by exploiting the signals. Combining
     computer network operations and SIGINT is innaccurate, because while
     SIGINT may be used with other intelligence disciplines in order to
     identify a hacker, it is not necessary and is no more related than any
     other intel discipline. SIGINT could help you identify a computer
     devices (not the operator) emitting a signal (wifi), and cryptanalysis,
     which is also separate from SIGINT but often used in conjunction, could
     help in providing methods to decrypt messages over a network, but SIGINT
     wouldn't obtain those messages.

     In order to exploit computer network operations, the operators involved
     are specifically trained in computer science disciplines and
     technologies tailored specifically for computer activity.

     NSA also is the primary agency for cryptanalysis. Because of
     technological demands of SIGINT and cryptanalysis, NSA has enormous
     resources in R&D, so I can see why the USG would move some CNO to NSA.
     But their SIGINT capabilities are not indicators of CNO capabilities.

     Writing the code and hacking was just a small part of necessary labor
     for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't think we are discussing
     operations on the scale of causing physical damage to extremely
     sensitive equipment . Well, this is an example of a cyber attack that
     matters, whereeas Anonymous so far has not mattered.  You chose the most
     prolific example of a cyber attack (which the whole operation consisted
     mainly outside of the cyber attack itself). Anything that falls short of
     this doesn't matter? Define what matters. None of anonymous' attacks
     have physically damaged secret Iranian nuclear facilities, but I think
     you are downplaying too much the significance of exposing corporate
     secrets, halting businesses' revenues, and embarrassing State actors by
     defacing their websites.

     On 10/24/11 5:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       On 10/24/11 5:07 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already The USG
           arrested 10 Russian spies last year, are you willing to say
           foreign intel is not capable of conducting espionage undetected?
           No, of course not.  But I also would not argue that the SVR is so
           good to be immune to detection, as you are arguing with hackers. 
           I'm saying they are more detectable than you think.  There is no
           such thing as truly anonymous.  Everythign leaves a trail.  Will
           that trail in every instance lead to a single individual? no.  but
           it can lead to a place, an organization, and often, an
           individual. 

           2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  SIGINT is not the NSA's only
           responsibility.  SIGINT assets do not carry over to investigating
           cyber intrusion, unless you are trying to corroborate, in this
           case HUMINT is just as significant as SIGINT. A country's SIGINT
           capabilities does not indicate its capabilities in tracking
           hackers. NSA may have there own department for tracking hackers
           but it does not make it SIGINT.

           Ok, Please define SIGINT for me. 

           The question is if the attack is high priority enough.  Many
           people assume there is no attribution because there is no
           response, but I don't think that is accurate.  Many people say
           this, because no attribution is one reason for no response.  Yes,
           they do, and if they think that is the primary reason for lack of
           response, then I think they are wrong. 

           3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new
           laptop and start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack
           involves much more than a recently bought laptop.  In the same way
           there is an attack cycle for a terrorist attack or crime, there is
           one for a cyber attack.  A very simple attack may be as hard to
           trace as a nearly-random mugging in the dark in a neighborhood
           with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.  A more
           complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational
           surveillance, developing exploits, developing programs and code,
           gaining access, exploiting that, and carrying out an attack. 
           Discovering exploits and writing code can be done entirely
           offline, out of sight of law enforcement or intel agencies.
           Pre-operational surveillance and gaining access (the point of the
           exploit you write offline) would fit in my example. The point is,
           if you don't link your computer to identifiable information, you
           remain anonymous. Just like people use certain methods to build
           IEDs, people use certain mehtods to design programs and code for
           cyber attacks.  Over time, those methods become identifiable and
           more and more attributable. This is, for example, how AURORA is
           linked back to the Chinese.  and very specific Chinese, I may add.
           Being connected or unconnected doesn't matter, eventually you have
           to use what you develop, or copy from someone, and all of those
           things can be analyzed.   And that takes time, giving more time
           for your exposure Exposure comes from network activity with the
           target, a lot of the pre-operational phase of an attack can occur
           without network activity. Look at everything that went into
           Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person
           with a new laptop. Writing the code and hacking was just a small
           part of necessary labor for the Stuxnet operation. I also don't
           think we are discussing operations on the scale of causing
           physical damage to extremely sensitive equipment . Well, this is
           an example of a cyber attack that matters, whereeas Anonymous so
           far has not mattered.   All of this activity provides activity and
           evidence which helps for attribution.  Of course it is always
           possible to develop an attack, just like any other operation, that
           even the best law enforcement and national intelligence agencies
           have trouble or cannot attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that
           it's very difficult for someone to successfully use Anonymous as a
           cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID, Aman, etc, be unable to attribute
           it.  How do you know if NSA or GHQ is effective in identifying
           hackers?I don't, but I'm confident they are far better than you
           are allowing for.    They may not choose to cover it if it is
           small scale crime, however. 
           On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored
             cyber warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing
             that, since you can conduct a cyber attack without associating
             with a hacker group and still deny / cover actions on behalf of
             the State. An individual attacking US computer assets from
             China, may be working by himself or on behalf of the Chinese
             government, but unless the US has other intel on the Chinese
             government's cyber warfare activities in order to corroborate
             there is little capability to distinguish.

             It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
             operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets
             from SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual
             responsible for hacking State run servers. In the past, I have
             turned to SIGINT organizations for collections on computer
             related material, but this was due to the US being behind in
             cyber warfare, and not knowing where to assign responsibility.
             However, this has changed dramatically in the last couple of
             years.

             Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As
             an extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go
             to a Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the
             online activity to something revealing (accessing personal email
             accounts, tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop,
             etc..), and begin hacking government email accounts then never
             use the laptop again. Unless LEA could get an accurate
             description of my appearance from Starbuck's patrons or possible
             security cameras, I can not think of way to identify me.

             Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to
             these enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied
             to specific computer-related activities because of the
             difficulty in identifying individuals.

             I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be blown,
             would be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a
             common participant in \"Anonymous\" activities, was working for a
             State? Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that
             State agent organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter
             buddies, what signs could a LEA look for to distinguish?

             On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a
               bit)

               1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything
               actually harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't,
               but i'm very doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first
               real case where they could do some minor damage--to individual
               people, not not to an organization or anything that would come
               as a serious or strategic threat. 

               2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is
               actually pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as
               a cover, but that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could
               probably still be attributed if important enough to those
               agencies.  The recent attack on Sony actually brings this
               issue up- Whoever is calling themselves anonymous denies they
               did it.  And keep in mind how much they have claimed an
               publicized attacks in the past, even before they were carried
               out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
               sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
               coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted
               Sony's IT security).  But whoever did it, again, no real
               damage came of it.  Congress is holding hearings over data
               security, but this is no different than the OC groups stealing
               your credit card information.  LE will go after them, have
               some success, but the threat is not that large. 
               On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

                 Link: themeData

                 I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to
                 have a broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no
                 nothing, or almost nothing about what this group is and the
                 threat it poses. Reviewing their list of attacks
                 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in
                 most of the cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a Robin
                 Hood of the internet . The interesting thing when it comes
                 to their interactions with the cartels is the dubious role
                 they play: at the same time they can be fighting crime by
                 revealing cartel members/supporters, but they can also put
                 lives in risk.

                 However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
                 Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth,
                 can conduct a cyber attack under \"Anonymous\" is worrisome.
                 (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

                 If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
                 websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to
                 know more about these guys. Who they are? What are they
                 interested in? How they operate? Who they have targeted so
                 far? How can I defend myself from them? In what countries
                 are they active? Should I worry about them at all? Can I use
                 them to achieve any particular goal?

                 On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   nice.  i still think the central focus, and what
                   everything else can build off of, is that Anonymous
                   doesn't know the threat they pose to innocent people
                   caught up in the terror that is Mexico.  By focusing on
                   journalists or taxi drivers they show little understanding
                   of the situation.  This has long term implications in not
                   just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
                   their actions and they act without understanding the
                   environment.  It was the same when they released
                   information on the Sony Playstation network to protest
                   Sony.  They hurt innocent people to prove a point. 

                   On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of
                     discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on
                     what type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The
                     video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
                     personal information on cartels as well as states a
                     member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources
                     outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
                     kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous
                     Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be
                     an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
                     Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
                     speculation.

                     Link: themeData
                     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
                     distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on
                     government websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                     Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's criminal
                     cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
                     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the
                     most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats
                     towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
                     releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
                     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
                     cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a
                     fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In
                     the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                     mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                     reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped
                     member are not met. The potential of conflict between
                     Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a unique
                     threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at
                     online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on
                     cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

                     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical
                     security threat to Mexican cartels.
                          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to
                     exploit online media
                          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico
                     to lash out at cartels

                     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to
                     pose a threat
                          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to
                     possess identifiable information on cartel members
                          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous
                     could acquire on cartels
                          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
                     communications, identifiable information on cartels
                     members have to be considered in the realm of
                     possibilities for
                                 Anonymous
                                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability
                     to reveal illicit online activity (child pornography
                     rings)

                     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
                     ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
                     result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
                     limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
                     in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any
                     possible retribution. They may not even know the impact
                     of any online assault of cartels.
                          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
                     journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not
                     understand some of these individuals are forced to
                     collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are
                     often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
                     halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals
                     will not have a significant impact on cartel            
                           operations. Politicans have been accused of
                     working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor)
                     before, however there has yet to be any consequences
                     from this.
                          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the
                     extent cartels are willing to go protect their
                     operations.
                             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer
                     science community before, coercing computer science
                     majors into working for them.
                             o    This provides the cartels with the
                     possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico.

                      

                     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the
                       idea but there are several issues to address and fix
                       here.

                       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern
                       with the discussion:

                            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why.
                       that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                            o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a
                       difference between stealing bank records from
                       government computers and overloading www.loszetas.com
                       main page.
                            o     There's no thought out process of what sort
                       of information could anon have on the cartels. What
                       kind of info is kept online and accessible to
                       potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
                       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
                       politicians and businessmen who need to worry about
                       what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                       bloggers and media were killed in previous instances.
                       Was it because they revealed operational details,
                       because they acted as informants, because they exposed
                       links with officials or because they somehow sullied
                       the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of
                       information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
                            o     Once you identify this info - think about
                       if anon can realistically access it and disseminate it
                       so it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have
                       any intelligence capacity except for the technical
                       ability by a very small number of its members to
                       infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal
                       information. Now what kind of information would a
                       cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
                       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
                       information be found? Government databases? Once we
                       know what kind of information is accessible, we can
                       also know more about the consequences of
                       dissemination.
                            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel?
                       Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there
                       risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may
                       not understand the difference between an anon hacker
                       and a blogger.

                       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                         -------- Original Message --------

                          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                             From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
                         Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                               To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

                         you've got some of the issues here, but this is
                         going to need a lot more work

                         You need to lay out:

                         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your
                         trigger section is unclear
                         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence
                         is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and
                         capabilities
                         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high
                         security anything
                         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to
                         kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes
                         their connections

                         I also just want to point out that we have
                         reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very
                         least has some significant levels of sophistication
                         in their online presence, to include the use of
                         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
                         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also
                         conduct business online, in a protected fashion.

                         Karen Hooper
                         Latin America Analyst
                         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                         c: 512.750.7234
                         STRATFOR
                         www.stratfor.com
                         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                         Link: themeData

                         Trigger

                         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy,
                         hackers. Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group
                         famous for...?, lashed out at drug cartels via the
                         Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
                         criminal cartels, including a video released
                         depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a
                         screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent video
                         release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                         criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing
                         identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers,
                         police, politicians, and journalists who collude
                         with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los
                         Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
                         face consequences. The potential of conflict between
                         Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                         unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                         different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
                         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have
                         little experience in handling. i believe that
                         Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
                         not believe for a second that the cartels have no
                         experience with hackers.

                          

                         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
                         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect
                         Anonymous' reaction if their demands of releasing a
                         kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
                         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is
                         threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so
                         we understand who this guy is and why/how he was
                         abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of
                         possessing revealing information on cartel members
                         and operations are true, cartels will likely respond
                         with violence against individuals revealed as
                         opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
                         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure
                         of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force
                         the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat
                         complexity i don't understand what this means. You
                         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                         effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
                         against Anonymous remains unanswered . However,
                         cartels will continue their threats against any
                         individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
                         or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here.
                         against the cartels.

                          

                         The Battle Space

                         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                         separate realities from each other. Anonymous
                         operates solely in sphere of the computer networks.
                         Anonymous does not experience geographical
                         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
                         exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely
                         true. They are physical people tho live in the real
                         world. They have names and addresses - although most
                         of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                         base consists of their technical capabilities in
                         hacking. Any information connected to the Internet
                         is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying
                         the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst
                         of Mexico's population could be quite difficult.
                          Remember that most of what Anonymous has done are
                         DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
                         company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                         it does not really matter if you don't run
                         operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money
                         via e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on
                         the web than the jihadists.)

                         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but
                         it's power base consists of the perceived anonymity
                         that its members believe themselves to have, real or
                         otherwise, by operating through the internet. This
                         gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
                         and everything to practice general dickery. As the
                         popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
                         Only a fraction of the large web of people who
                         identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of
                         serious IT capability. 

                         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so
                         far has been from targeted arrests by Law
                         Enforcement Agencies.

                         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the
                         streets in US and Mexican cities. They are run as a
                         business, always looking to maximize profits and
                         expand. But they are bricks and mortar commerce.
                         Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
                         and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that
                         from insight. There is no reason to assume that Los
                         Zetas don't have a similar capacity.  Their power
                         base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                         escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas,
                         are experienced in facing different types of
                         threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands
                         of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each
                         other, cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement
                         Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
                         the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted
                         media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
                         bloggers in order to cover details of their
                         operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng
                         for this discussion. You need to focus on the
                         possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just
                         assume they have no cyber presence.

                          

                         Anonymous' Weapons

                         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous'
                         actions against criminal cartels has yet to be seen.
                         Anonymous' only ability to combat cartels lay in
                         information operations, mainly disseminating
                         sensitive information on cartels and propagating
                         anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced
                         websites in Mexico you mean so far and that we know
                         of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The
                         significance of a targeted information operations
                         campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
                         overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels
                         view main stream media outlets and social media
                         blogs as such a threat to their operations, that
                         they have continued to target journalists and
                         bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas
                         was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly,
                         on the body of a blogger. The message threatened any
                         users who denounce cartels on blogging websites.
                         getting repetitive here, and it's not really
                         addressing the subheading

                         As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                         internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is
                         ample reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of
                         possessing information they threaten to release. By
                         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
                         Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of
                         those individuals. Anonymous's ability to
                         disseminate sensitive information is limited by what
                         is available via the Internet. Government computers
                         connected to the Internet should always be
                         considered a possibility of an attack. However, as
                         with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                         governments computer networks, information available
                         to Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy
                         to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This
                         isn't clear at all

                          

                         Cartel's Defense

                                     A counter response to the video? by the
                         cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                         claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest
                         Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
                         hackers so... how has there not been a counter
                         response? also this undermines your statements above
                         about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and
                         underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
                         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The
                         answer to that could very well give you some
                         indication to the technical ability of the cartels .
                         As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
                         wide web , the cartels will face a number of
                         challenges which rarely are posed for them Again,
                         how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
                         dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can
                         assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they
                         are working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers
                         threatening cartels, can operate in any region of
                         the world. Personal information including locations
                         is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it
                         or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                         figure it out. Hackers don't only work for
                         Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with
                         their online enemy, if they can physically reach out
                         to them. Or start employing hackers of their own
                         under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
                         Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                                     Cartels have been known to coerce the
                         services of Mexican citizens with a technical
                         background. Recruiting the help of computer science
                         majors through personal threats has been reported in
                         the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
                         Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence
                         and drug trafficking, they will likely need the
                         assistance of technical experts to help combat any
                         threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                         bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
                         is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any
                         hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
                         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more
                         technical experience and resources than cartels,
                         struggle to find hackers through investigations. A)
                         How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the
                         guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that
                         not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                                     In order to compete with an online foe,
                         cartels will likely continue counter tactics they
                         are most familiar with, brute force. Cartels are
                         still capable of their HUMINT operations within
                         Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't
                         be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
                         communities will likely be targeted and interrogated
                         by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
                         of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
                         online media into submission i'm not really seeing
                         the online media-international hacking group
                         connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                         inflict harm, is something computer hackers have
                         unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether
                         the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence
                         of Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels
                         are able to seek out and capture members of the
                         hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the
                         collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any
                         inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

               --

               Sean Noonan

               Tactical Analyst

               Office: +1 512-279-9479

               Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

               Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

               www.stratfor.com

           --

           Sean Noonan

           Tactical Analyst

           Office: +1 512-279-9479

           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

           www.stratfor.com

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
","2011-10-25 02:47:49",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1305171_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1307791,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-11 13:59:34",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1307791_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1310030,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN/US/SYRIA - Iran reaching out to US on
	post-Assad set-up? - ME1 and ME1386
","   What does the source think about the possibility of a palace coup that
   isn't accepted by the SNC, FSA, people in the street or some combination
   thereof? Also does source know what the Iranians think about such a
   scenario (assuming they have considered it)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 6:07:16 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN/US/SYRIA - Iran reaching out to US on
   post-Assad set-up? - ME1 and ME1386

   my bad, that should read HZ politburo

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Michael Wilson\" <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 10:00:59 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - IRAN/US/SYRIA - Iran reaching out to US on
   post-Assad set-up? - ME1 and ME1386

   You say HZ source but notes say member of Hamas politburo

   On 12/13/11 9:29 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Reva's note - this is extremely interesting, especially the bolded part
     below. DOes Iran really think it can convince the US to collaborate with
     them on regime change in SYria in such a way that will end up in Iran's
     favor? the whole point of the US focusing in on Syria is to contain Iran
     in the first place. This sounds like the Iranians are getting to be in
     an increasingly desperate position. Always be wary of source bias, but
     why would a HZ source want to spread info on the weakness of the Syrian
     regime and the lack of options for Iran?  I do believe the part about
     Iran preferring a palace coup over the Turkish strategy of building up
     an opposition via FSA.

     SOURCE: ME1 and ME1386
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1 and member of Hamas politburo
     PUBLICATION: Yes - worth a tactical analysis
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: B-C
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: B-C
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

     Marhaba Reva,
     I strongly believe that Asad's regime will fall in 2012. The
     conventional wisdom that Asad will survive, because both Iran and Israel
     view him with favor, is a thing of the past. The situation in Syria has
     reached the point of no return. It is true than nine months of
     demonstrations have not brought down the regime but, by the same token,
     regime brutality and heavy handedness have not quelled the uprising. If
     anything, the level of hostilities and army defections is on the rise.

     The breaking point will come when the military establishment realizes
     that Asad must go. There are signs that the military establishment is
     beginning to disintegrate. I talked to [ME1386] and he told me that
     Alawite officers and enlisted men are beginning to join the ranks of the
     FSA. This represents a major development. Alawite officers are divided
     since many of them are unhappy about the use of excessive force against
     Sunni protesters.  Alawite officers are aware that Asad is trying to
     find an asylum for himself and his family should his regime become
     unslavageable. This is upsetting many Alawites who are coming to realize
     that Asad will abandon them. If so, they reason that it would be
     suicidal to continue to win the wrath of the Sunnis. Walid al-Muallim
     offered to resign but Asad turned down his request. This is a clear
     indicator that many of Asad's men are realizing that they are putting a
     vain fight against the burgeoning uprising.

     The Iranians are weighing in the situation in Syria very carefully. One
     must read beyond the public statements of the Iranians, especially
     ayatollah Khamenei. Both Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have concluded that
     Asad's regime cannot be rescued. It is perfectly understood that the
     regime in Damascus will fall along lines similar to the Libyan model.
     There will have to be a coup in Damascus, be it a military or political
     one.

     One must not dismiss the pragmatism of Khamenei. Iran appears to be
     willing to use its influence in Syria to stage a coup, provided that it
     is able to ensure that the new leadership will continue to pursue
     excellent relations with Tehran. The Iranians have approached the
     Americans on this. In the past, Iran collaborated with the U.S. on the
     ouster of Saddam Hussein and Iran won big in Iraq. The Iranians would
     not mind working again on ousting Asad if they can secure good results
     in Syria. Syria's contiguity to Iraq allows Iran to play a direct role
     in the affairs of Damascus.

     The Iranians feel they need to act on Syria soon because the Turks have
     their own plans for Syria and are not coordinating with the Iranians. He
     says the Turks are moving slowly but systematically. Iran does not want
     to allow Turkey to take over Syria. Whereas the Turks are coordinating
     with the Brotherhood and the FSA, the Iranians prefer a palace coup in
     damascus in order to maintain their ties with Asad's successors. What is
     delaying action in Syria is the fact that the U.S. has not yet decided
     on the shape of the post-Asad political system. Nevertheless, he insists
     that Asad's regime will fall, although the future of Syria after the
     regime change remains nebulous.

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com

   --
   Nick Grinstead
   Regional Monitor
   STRATFOR
   Beirut, Lebanon
   +96171969463
","2011-12-13 17:09:09",1,"2012-03-06 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1310030_re-alpha-insight-iran-us-syria-iran-reaching-out-to-us-on.html","nick.grinstead@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1318720,"Re: [Fwd: Fred letter]
","   My edits, incorporating Matt's edits:

   Figuring out who Fred Burton is and what he does at STRATFOR isn't easy.
   His first book was called Ghost and it's a fitting title for him.

    

   Inside of STRATFOR, Fred is Chief Security Officer. He oversees a group we
   call \"tactical intelligence.\" Tactical intelligence sweats the small
   things because small things frequently turn out not to be small at all. So
   if it is something that goes boom, something that involves mayhem,
   something where people disappear, kill each other or smuggle drugs-Fred
   and his team work on it. At first glance, you may think such short-term
   details don't belong at STRATFOR, since our focus is the big picture of
   geopolitics. But those are the details that keep us honest, that can throw
   a wrench into our entire big picture assessment, forcing us to
   re-evaluate. Fred and his team constantly challenge our assumptions.

    

   To do this, Fred uses a skill set and experiences few people in the world
   possess. He began as a cop, and then moved on to the Department of State
   Security service, which protects foreign diplomats in the United States
   and American diplomats abroad. During his time in DSS, Fred got involved
   in investigations himself, in particular capturing Ramsey Youssef, the
   terrorist who bombed the World Trade Center in 1993.

    

   He's written a new book (didn't realize Fred could write; always thought
   his specialty was wisecracking at the coffee station) that's called
   \"Chasing Shadows.\" It's about the unsolved murder of an Israeli air
   attache in the 1970s in Washington and Fred's decades-long quest to solve
   it. The case sheds light on how intelligence services operate-and how
   nations play hardball with each other. It starts with the tactical details
   and builds up to the big picture of international relations, much like the
   way our tactical and geopolitical teams work together.

    

   Despite his elusive persona, Fred's more than a colleague. He's my friend
   and he covers my back-or, more precisely, he thinks I can't cover my back
   myself. Either way he's a good man and STRATFOR is lucky to have him. I
   highly recommend this book because in a fluid and personable fashion it
   tells an important story from 1973 with a lasting effect on geopolitics
   today.

    

   If you enjoy the book, you'll love the work Fred & his team produce at
   STRATFOR.... [sales pitch here?]

   On 3/7/11 4:50 PM, Matthew Solomon wrote:

     My cut at George's letter

     Figuring out who Fred Burton is and what he does isn't easy.  His first
     book was called Ghost and it's a fitting title for him.

      

     Inside of STRATFOR, Fred is Chief Security Officer. He oversees our
     security analysis, which is part of a division of the company we call
     \"tactical intelligence.  Tactical sweats the small stuff, because small
     stuff frequently turns out to be not small at all. If something goes
     boom, something involves mayhem, something makes people disappear-Fred
     and his team in tactical intelligence work on it. At first glance you
     may think this doesn't belong at STRATFOR, our focus being the big
     picture, geopolitics and the like. But the big picture can't be
     understood without the individual smaller pieces, and sometimes those
     little things are clues the ordinary mind would have never suspected.

      

     To do this, Fred uses a skill set and experiences few other people in
     the world possess. During his time in DSS, Fred ran a program that paid
     bounties to those who turned in terrorists. He eventually got involved
     in investigations himself, in particular capturing Ramsey Youssef, the
     terrorist who initially bombed the World Trade Center in 1993.

      

     He's written a new book (didn't realize Fred could write; always thought
     his specialty was wisecracking at the coffee machine) that's called
     \"Chasing Shadows.\" It's about the unsolved assassination of an Israeli
     air attache in the 1970s and how the case's unraveling sheds light on
     the manner in which intelligence services operate-and therefore how they
     play hardball with each other. It starts with small things and builds to
     the big things; similar to the way our security team builds its
     analysis.

      

     Despite his elusive persona and frequent disappearing acts, personally
     Fred's more than a colleague. He's a friend and contributes a lot to
     this organization. Either way he's a good man and STRATFOR is lucky to
     have him. I recommend you read this book because, in a fluid and
     personable fashion it tells an important story and gives you a sense
     what STRATFOR does behind the scenes and how it does it. It is an
     interesting insight into how we think and things we worry about that
     might surprise you.

     On 3/7/11 4:39 PM, Megan Headley wrote:

       Rodger's response to why we have Fred: \"eye candy\"

       On 3/7/11 3:03 PM, Darryl O'Connor wrote:

         fyi

     --

     Matthew Solomon
     Online Sales Manager
     STRATFOR

     T: 512-744-4300 ext 4095
     F: 512-744-4334
     C: 817-271-7709
     www.stratfor.com
","2011-03-08 00:15:49",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1318720_re-fwd-fred-letter-.html","megan.headley@stratfor.com","","oconnor@stratfor.com,matthew.solomon@stratfor.com",""
1327642,"Makled's Threat to the Venezuelan Regime
","    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Makled's Threat to the Venezuelan Regime                                   
                                                                              
    November 8, 2010 | 2049 GMT                                               
    Makled's Threat to the Venezuelan Regime                                  
    SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP/Getty Images                                          
    Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in Kiev on Oct. 18                       
    Summary                                                                   
                                                                              
    Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez issued a broadcast from the Cuban        
    capital Nov. 8 warning that the United States was launching a massive     
    disinformation campaign against his regime through captured drug kingpin  
    Walid Makled. Makled, who is currently being held by Colombia and is      
    being requested for extradition by the United States, is very valuable    
    to Bogota and potentially to Washington given the information he          
    allegedly possesses on money-laundering and drug-trafficking connections  
    to senior Venezuelan government members. His fate is still undetermined   
    but could have significant implications for Venezuelan-Colombian          
    relations, U.S.-Colombian relations and most important, the               
    sustainability of the Chavez regime.                                      
                                                                              
    Analysis                                                                  
                                                                              
    During a visit to the Cuban capital Nov. 8, Venezuelan President Hugo     
    Chavez made a speech in which he condemned the United States for trying   
    to manipulate the case of captured drug kingpin Walid Makled. Chavez      
    said, \"The game of the empire is to offer incentives to that man          
    (Makled), including protection, so that he can start vomiting all he      
    wants against Venezuela and its president. Then the empire will try to    
    manipulate all the lies that man can say.\" Chavez went on to say that     
    the United States can \"pretend\" to use Makled to create a list of         
    narcotrafficking and terrorism charges against Venezuela in an            
    international criminal court of justice, similar to the U.S. pursuit of   
    Panamanian military leader Manuel Noriega.                                
                                                                              
    Makled, the man responsible for Chavez's most recent display of anxiety,  
    is a Lebanese-born Venezuelan national who has earned a reputation as a   
    global drug kingpin. Upon U.S. President Barack Obama's request, Makled   
    was added to the U.S. list of most wanted drug traffickers in May 2009    
    and was arrested on Aug. 19 by Colombian police in Cucuta, Norte de       
    Santander department.                                                     
                                                                              
     Cause for Chavez's Concern                                               
                                                                              
    Makled is believed to have worked closely with senior members of the      
    Venezuelan government, possibly including Chavez himself, before his      
    relationship with the regime went sour around late 2008. According to a   
    STRATFOR source, Makled had a valuable insurance policy in dealing with   
    the Venezuelan political and military officials, always taking care to    
    record his interactions in case he needed to one day negotiate his way    
    out of a prison sentence, or worse.                                       
                                                                              
    That day has come, and Makled is now in high demand in Bogota, Caracas    
    and Washington. Colombia holds the keys to Makled's fate and understands  
    well the bargaining power it holds by keeping Makled within its           
    jurisdiction. When Colombia and Venezuela restored diplomatic and trade   
    relations in September, shortly after Colombian President Juan Manuel     
    Santos took office, STRATFOR raised the question of what additional       
    leverage Bogota might have had. The rapid rapprochement between Bogota    
    and Caracas was not solely due to Colombia's need to alleviate pressures  
    on businessmen on the border who depended on trade with Venezuela for     
    their livelihood, nor was it simply the result of a personal power        
    struggle between Santos and his more hawkish predecessor, as many         
    erroneously speculated (Santos and former President Alvaro Uribe Velez,   
    in fact, have worked very closely together on Venezuela, among other      
    issues). When STRATFOR began receiving reports of the Venezuelan          
    military quietly shutting down Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia     
    (FARC) camps and flushing FARC members back across the border into        
    Colombia, it was evident that Bogota was holding something big over       
    Chavez's head.                                                            
                                                                              
    Makled appears to be that critical factor. As STRATFOR has covered in     
    depth, the Venezuelan regime has seen a number of its massive laundering  
    rackets spiral out of control over recent months, leading to the gradual  
    decay of critical state sectors including food, electricity, energy and   
    metals. As the situation deteriorated in recent years and as the cash     
    flow to state firms was affected more, the intersection between the       
    money-laundering rackets and drug trafficking has grown deeper. For       
    example, for those state entities that are running into serious cash      
    flow problems, local drug dealers can provide local currency and filter   
    their drug money through the exchange rate regime. The drug revenues      
    could also be used to finance support for designated terrorist groups     
    like FARC and the National Liberation Army. Layered on top of these       
    relationships was Venezuela's growing relationship with Iran and          
    indications of increased Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force    
    activity in Venezuela with Chavez's approval.                             
                                                                              
    Makled's testimony, therefore, could be bought by the United States in    
    exchange for protection, a reduced sentence or other measures in order    
    to build up a case against the Chavez government on money-laundering,     
    drug-trafficking and possibly terrorism charges. Indeed, district courts  
    in Miami and New York are already building such cases against high-level  
    Venezuelan officials, prompting Chavez to publicly warn in May that a     
    district court in Miami could indict him and his inner circle on          
    money-laundering and drug-trafficking charges. It would take a decision   
    by the U.S. administration to allow these cases involving senior and      
    active members of the regime to proceed, given the diplomatic crisis      
    that would ensue, but holding that threat alone, along with the strong    
    potential for intelligence sharing between Bogota and Washington over     
    Makled, is enough to generate serious concern within the upper echelons   
    of the regime.                                                            
                                                                              
     Domestic Trouble Ahead for Chavez?                                       
                                                                              
    As the vulnerability of his government has increased, Chavez has thus     
    placed greater emphasis on the need to rapidly expand the National        
    Bolivarian Militia (a way to complicate any coup attempts against him     
    while he has become increasingly beholden to external supporters like     
    China, Cuba, Russia and Iran). Doubts over Chavez's ability to hold onto  
    power and concerns over whether senior political and military leaders     
    could be sacrificed in a bargain over criminal indictments are likely to  
    create a great deal of friction within the regime. And the more friction  
    within the regime, the more likely the unity of the armed forces will be  
    strained. This may explain why Chavez ally and confidante Gen. Henry      
    Rangel Silva, Venezuela's chief of Strategic Operational Command of the   
    armed forces, felt the need to announce Nov. 8 that the military is       
    \"wedded\" to Chavez's political project and that the president has the     
    armed forces' \"complete loyalty.\"                                         
                                                                              
    Given the controversy over Makled's capture and the other major stresses  
    on the regime, that loyalty cannot be assured. Chavez has been pressing   
    Bogota to extradite Makled to Venezuela - an act that could lead to       
    Makled's demise or disappearance. The United States is also bargaining    
    for Makled's extradition; a New York Federal Court formally indicted      
    Makled on Nov. 4. When Santos traveled to Caracas to meet with Chavez on  
    Nov. 3, the Venezuelan president urged his Colombian counterpart to hand  
    Makled over (he has been asking for his extradition since September).     
    Santos failed to give him any assurances, leading Chavez and Rangel       
    Silva to warn Nov. 8 that the United States was working to wreck the      
    Colombian-Venezuelan rapprochement.                                       
                                                                              
    The issue of Makled's extradition is likely factoring into Colombia's     
    current dealings with the United States over the status of their          
    relationship, including how to proceed with an expanded military basing   
    agreement. The agreement is in political limbo after Colombia's           
    Constitutional Court declared it unconstitutional because it was signed   
    under Uribe without congressional approval, though U.S. forces in the     
    area appear to be operating with little disruption. Though Colombia       
    remains interested in maintaining a close defense relationship with the   
    United States, it is also looking for a more equitable partnership with   
    Washington - one that will entail technology-sharing rights and free      
    trade concessions. These broader negotiations are still under way, and    
    the Makled extradition is one more bargaining chip at Bogota's disposal   
    as the United States looks to Colombia as its main military foothold in   
    South America.                                                            
                                                                              
    As of now, there is no clear answer as to what will become of Makled.     
    There is no doubt, however, that he is a prize for Bogota and             
    Washington, and his testimony could pose a significant threat to the      
    sustainability of the Chavez regime.                                      
                                                                              
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    (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
","2010-11-08 22:46:26",1,"2012-03-09 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1327642_makled-s-threat-to-the-venezuelan-regime-.html","noreply@stratfor.com","","allstratfor@stratfor.com",""
1333034,"Special Report: Venezuela's Unsustainable Economic Paradigm
","    Stratfor logo                        August 4, 2010                       
   Special Report: Venezuela's Unsustainable Economic Paradigm                
                                                                              
    August 4, 2010 | 1208 GMT                                                 
    Special Report: Venezuela's Unsustainable Economic Paradigm               
    PEDRO REY/AFP/Getty Images                                                
    Large reproductions of the Venezuelan bolivar on display in Caracas       
    Summary                                                                   
                                                                              
    Despite being a major energy exporter, Venezuela is currently mired in    
    economic recession and suffering from record-high levels of inflation, a  
    dismal condition known as \"stagflation.\" As the country's economy         
    deteriorates on a number of fronts, the government continues to struggle  
    with an electricity crisis and worsening food shortages that are          
    threatening to undermine support for the ruling party in the lead-up to   
    September legislative elections. The Venezuelan government has tried to   
    impose a range of currency controls, from currency devaluations to        
    parallel market crackdowns, in an effort to resuscitate the economy. But  
    the country's distortionary and unsustainable currency regime not only    
    is forcing more of the economy underground (leading to higher inflation   
    and shortages of basic goods), but it is also catalyzing an elaborate     
    money-laundering scheme that now appears to be spiraling out of control,  
    thereby weakening the regime's grip on power.                             
                                                                              
    Analysis                                                                  
    PDF Version                                                               
      * Click here to download a PDF of this report                           
                                                                              
    From the energy and food sectors to banks and steel mills, Venezuela has  
    been on an aggressive nationalization drive over the past four years in   
    order to draw more money into state coffers while increasing the number   
    of Venezuelan citizens who are politically (and economically) beholden    
    to the state for their livelihoods. While this policy has brought a       
    number of short-term benefits to the government, it has come at the cost  
    of gross inefficiency, mismanagement and corruption, leading to an        
    overall decline in Venezuelan productivity. In an attempt to redress the  
    extreme macroeconomic imbalances, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez was    
    forced to make a substantial adjustment to the country's fixed peg to     
    the U.S. dollar. On June 8, the Venezuelan government devalued the        
    bolivar against the dollar by 17 percent and 50 percent, simultaneously   
    creating a dual exchange-rate regime.                                     
                                                                              
     The Currency Regime                                                      
                                                                              
    An exchange rate of 2.15 bolivars per dollar was established for          
    \"essential goods,\" such as food and medicine, while all other items used  
    a weaker rate of 4.3 bolivars per dollar. The parallel market that used   
    to exist in tandem (and where, unregulated, the dollar recently cost      
    upward of 8 bolivars) is now strictly regulated by the Venezuelan         
    government in a trading band of 4.2 to 5.4 bolivars per dollar, making    
    the parallel market the third official exchange rate. For all intents     
    and purposes, that parallel market was the closest thing to a genuine     
    exchange rate that the country had because the other two rates were       
    subsidized and access to them was restricted by the government.           
                                                                              
    Clearly there are problems with the current arrangement. Although dual    
    or multi-tiered exchange rate regimes do provide the government with the  
    ability to impose tighter capital controls, address economic imbalances   
    and make imported goods more affordable, they are inefficient and         
    difficult to manage. In most economic systems, the cost of capital is     
    the single most important factor for determining growth and development,  
    and when the cost of capital has three different values, entire sectors   
    shift (and even disappear). For example, the ability to import food for   
    a third of the real market price via the \"essential\" exchange rate        
    largely destroys incentives to produce food locally. Unsurprisingly,      
    countries with such regimes most often experience lower growth and much   
    higher inflation than countries with a single, unified exchange rate. To  
    mute the very high reported inflation (about 32 percent annually,         
    according to Venezuela's central bank), the government has militantly     
    enforced price repression, which is beginning to cause shortages of even  
    the most basic goods (since it makes more financial sense for businesses  
    to stop producing altogether than be able to sell only at artificially    
    low prices).                                                              
                                                                              
    Special Report: Venezuela's Unsustainable Economic Paradigm               
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
    Second, since the parallel rate was upward of 8 bolivars per dollar       
    before the government began regulating the market, even the weakest       
    possible official rate - the 5.4 at the weakest end of the official       
    trading band - would still be overvalued. With dollars becoming harder    
    to obtain in the regulated markets, more of the economy is being driven   
    underground, and it is probably only a matter of time before another      
    black market emerges (assuming that such a market has not already         
    emerged). The existence of another parallel currency market would bring   
    the total number of foreign exchange rates in Venezuela to four - the     
    subsidized rate, the petrodollar rate, the now-regulated parallel rate    
    and a new black-market rate - the consequences of which would be          
    dizzying.                                                                 
                                                                              
    Moreover, because multi-tiered exchange-rate regimes skew the value of    
    money, they also reward particularly creative individuals and companies   
    who can figure out ways to shuffle goods back and forth through the       
    exchange regime (for example, by placing an import order for a good at    
    one rate, importing it at another and selling it at a third). The         
    various and intricate incentives that arise from distortionary currency   
    regimes invariably lead to spiraling corruption and fraud. Venezuela's    
    currency regime is no exception, especially since practically all         
    public-sector entities have the ability to import via the most            
    subsidized rate by virtue of their being public enterprises.              
                                                                              
     The Gaming Process                                                       
                                                                              
    Conspicuously enough, warehouses have recently been discovered in         
    Venezuela containing mountains of rotting food, expired medications and   
    unusable electricity-generating equipment - at a time when Venezuela is   
    ostensibly suffering from severe food and power shortages. However,       
    there's a very logical reason why the warehouses are filled with          
    \"essential\" goods. The most apparent is that the mismanagement of state   
    entities responsible for the purchasing and distribution of these goods   
    renders them unable to keep up with the logistical demands of their       
    trade. The state-run entity Bolipuertos (of which the Cuban government    
    holds a significant stake) that runs Venezuela's ports, for example, is   
    years behind on its repair schedule. As a result, goods arriving at       
    Venezuelan ports will often sit for weeks and months without the          
    necessary electricity and refrigeration to preserve them. But the less    
    obvious - and more nefarious - reason is that many of the ports are also  
    mafia-run, and Venezuela's state-owned companies and their subsidiaries   
    are exploiting their privileged access to the subsidized exchange rate    
    in order to enrich themselves. Simply put, there may be deliberation      
    behind many of these shortages.                                           
                                                                              
    Before the government began regulating the parallel market, which more    
    accurately reflected the forces of supply and demand (and thus the        
    bolivar's genuine value), private Venezuelan companies would finance      
    anywhere from 30 to 40 percent of their imports through a dollar/bolivar  
    rate of about 8. However, all state-owned enterprises can exchange just   
    2.6 bolivars for one U.S. dollar, provided that the dollar goes toward    
    importing a good on the government-determined list of essential goods.    
    So, the game is this: maximize the bolivar amount exchanged at the        
    subsidized rate, minimize the dollar amount that has to be spent on       
    importing the goods and pocket the difference.                            
                                                                              
    Overstating the price, or intended amount, of goods to be imported - be   
    they actually essential or simply deemed essential for the sake of        
    participating in this racket - would provide the importer with extra      
    U.S. dollars, as would directing the import business to friends in        
    return for cash or favors.                                                
                                                                              
    For the importers to earn the \"inefficiency premium\" they charge on this  
    process, they would want to be careful not to kill their golden goose by  
    actually meeting the market demand for goods. So long as there exists a   
    \"shortage\" of that particular good, the importers can make a strong       
    argument for why they need to import even more of the goods - hence the   
    \"inexplicable\" warehouses of essential goods containing unusable          
    power-generating equipment and rotting food.                              
                                                                              
     The Food Example                                                         
                                                                              
    While any item on the government's essential goods list is a potential    
    candidate for the scam, food is perhaps the best \"vehicle\" simply         
    because it is perishable, people have to eat and there will always be     
    demand. The drawback to food as the vehicle, from the government's point  
    of view, is that bare shelves in food markets can quickly present an      
    insurmountable challenge for even the most resilient of regimes.          
    Venezuela imports about 70 percent of its food, most of which now comes   
    from the United States, Brazil and Argentina (Caracas has sustained a de  
    facto trade embargo on Colombian food imports over the past year). Since  
    2003, the government has placed heavy price controls on foodstuffs and    
    has steadily harassed private food companies with charges of speculation  
    and fraud to justify the state's unwavering nationalization drive.        
                                                                              
    In Venezuela, the state-owned energy firm Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA)  
    - the country's main revenue stream - is also responsible for much of     
    the country's food distribution network, a primarily cash-based business  
    that makes tracking transactions all the more difficult. PDVSA            
    subsidiaries work to restrict food supply in the country, thereby         
    increasing demand and increasing their own profit when they turn around   
    and sell food on the black market. Those that have squirreled away vast   
    amounts of food can, for a hefty profit, supply the overwhelming demand   
    for food on the black market. The fact that PDVSA is responsible for      
    much of the country's food distribution makes it much easier for those    
    subsidiaries to corner the food market - they can both create the         
    shortage (by hoarding food) and be there to satisfy the pent-up demand    
    (with the food they've hoarded).                                          
                                                                              
    The two main PDVSA subsidiaries that operate in this particular           
    money-laundering scheme are PDVAL and Bariven. PDVAL was created in       
    January 2008 with a stated goal to correct the speculation of food        
    prices through its own distribution network. Bariven, the acquisition     
    arm of PDVSA, is tasked with obtaining materials for oil exploration and  
    production, but it is also involved in managing inventories for PDVSA, a  
    responsibility that extends into the food sector. From its headquarters   
    in Houston, Bariven will place an order for food imports from American    
    exporters in Texas and Louisiana. PDVSA Bank, a murky new entity whose    
    creation was announced in the summer of 2009, was set up to facilitate    
    banking agreements between PDVSA and Russian state energy giant Gazprom,  
    and is believed to provide loans for such food-import transactions.       
    (Bariven is also known to secure loans from major U.S. banks and is one   
    of a select few state entities that has preferential access with the      
    Commission of Foreign Exchange Administration in Venezuela to trade       
    bolivars for dollars to facilitate these exchanges.) Bariven will then    
    sell the food to PDVAL at a hefty discount, yet will report an even       
    transaction on the books. The food will then sit on the docks until it    
    is close to its expiration date, thus restricting supply in the           
    state-owned markets and building up demand. When the food is already      
    rotting (or close to it), it is sold on the black market for a profit     
    (it's no good to sell the food to the normal government distribution      
    network, where the price of food is tightly controlled). Since PDVAL is   
    the entity that collects all the revenue from state food distributors,    
    the bolivar-denominated proceeds from its food sales can then be          
    discreetly recycled back into PDVSA Bank, where the bolivars can be used  
    again to place ever-increasing orders that will require more dollars and  
    more imports.                                                             
                                                                              
    The orders have increased to the point that the distributors are          
    throwing out thousands of tons of rotting food. This is the root of a     
    scandal that broke in Venezuela in May, when state intelligence agents    
    began investigating the theft of powdered milk and found between 30,000   
    and 75,000 tons (estimates vary between state and opposition claims) of   
    food rotting in warehouses in Puerto Cabello, La Guaira, Maracaibo and    
    other major ports.                                                        
                                                                              
     Has the Scheme Run its Course?                                           
                                                                              
    The above example describes how the money-laundering scheme is playing    
    out in the food distribution sector, but the same concept can be applied  
    to the electricity, medicine and energy sectors. The priority of many     
    officials working in the state-owned electricity company EDELCA is to     
    enrich themselves through a similar money- laundering scheme in which     
    they can exploit and arbitrage the exchange-rate regime, place            
    exorbitant orders for parts, airbrush their books and then pocket the     
    difference. Unlike the engineers working on the power plants, state       
    electricity officials ordering parts lack technical knowledge and have    
    no interest in consulting the engineers when placing the orders. The      
    result is a mishmash of parts and equipment collecting dust in            
    warehouses while power rationing continues across the country. Even more  
    alarming is the fact that Brazilian engineers for Eurobras, a             
    Brazilian-German-Venezuelan consortium, abandoned their work on           
    Venezuela's Guri dam in May after having failed to receive their          
    paychecks from EDELCA. The work they were doing - the implementation of   
    larger and more efficient hydroelectric turbines - was highly             
    specialized and crucial to Venezuela maintaining its electricity output.  
    Yet EDELCA, having already reaped its profits from placing the contract   
    orders for the parts, apparently had little motivation to come up with    
    the funds to allow these workers to finish the job. This is why, despite  
    better-than-expected rainfall over the past couple months, Venezuela      
    remains mired in an electricity crisis since the dilapidated electricity  
    infrastructure is incapable of keeping up with demand.                    
                                                                              
    The money-laundering scheme is prevalent in many strategic sectors, but   
    the food sector brings especially unique benefits to the money            
    launderers while raising the stakes for the Venezuelan leadership. Since  
    food is perishable, it readily lends itself to hoarding and \"screw ups\"   
    when it goes rotten, requiring more orders, more dollars and more         
    imports. By contrast, while one can still make money by importing a       
    dozen hydroelectric turbines or an expensive new oil rig, there are only  
    so many excuses for having ordered the wrong piece of equipment, and the  
    black market for such equipment is not nearly as good as the black        
    market for food (which, again, is essential for survival).                
                                                                              
    While this elaborate racket has kept a good portion of state officialdom  
    financially content, the warehouses full of rotten food, expired          
    medicine and unused electricity equipment, along with the gross neglect   
    and disrepair of the Guri dam - a vital piece of the country's            
    electricity infrastructure - indicate that the state is losing control    
    over the \"essential\" sectors. In short, this racket has become so         
    prevalent that it is now threatening the core stability of the state.     
    This is why, despite the obvious political risk of exacerbating food      
    shortages and basic supplies by increasing the costs for importers, the   
    Venezuelan regime has put most of its effort in the past month into       
    cracking down on the \"speculators\" in the parallel market. The cost of    
    not doing something about these speculators has proved to be higher than  
    the cost of alienating political supporters in the lead-up to             
    legislative elections in September.                                       
                                                                              
    When the food scandal recently broke, the government was quick to name    
    its scapegoat: former PDVAL President Luis Pulido, who, along with        
    several other officials, has been arrested and put on trial for           
    corruption. The Chavez regime is using PDVAL as an example to others who  
    have taken the money-laundering scheme to dangerous levels. Many of       
    those who are most deeply entrenched in the racket and have been less     
    conscious of the long-term risk to the state are the more radical         
    officials within the Chavez government, who are now being sought out by   
    Cuban intelligence services working in league with the upper echelons of  
    the Venezuelan regime. But these efforts could be too little too late.    
    Cracking down on speculators who are operating outside the state's        
    jurisdiction may alleviate part of the problem and provide the state      
    with a cover to expand its control over key sectors, but what of the      
    vast numbers of speculators working within the state, particularly those  
    higher up the chain who could pose a real threat to the regime's hold on  
    power?                                                                    
                                                                              
    Indeed, the government's most recent attempts to rein in this food        
    scandal are already showing signs of floundering. A June 26 ban on        
    unregulated food sales passed in the wake of news about the scandal was   
    revoked shortly thereafter by the president himself, who called on        
    authorities to target the \"food mafias\" behind the gaming scheme as       
    opposed to the sellers on the streets. The problem with such a directive  
    is that those involved in the food mafias are likely to involve members   
    high up in the regime, which makes the likelihood of enforcement          
    questionable. The government is also introducing new legislation that     
    aims to sideline speculators from the gaming process by changing the      
    currency-for-food transactions altogether. The draft legislation,         
    entitled the Organic Law for the Promotion and Development of the         
    Community Economic System, calls for food in local communes to be         
    \"bought\" and \"sold\" primarily through bartering. For exchanges of         
    non-equal value, the legislation calls on communes to create their own    
    currencies (independent of the bolivar) to buy and sell food on the       
    local level. The local communes' strategy is encompassed in a package of  
    legislation dubbed \"People Power,\" which aims to undermine state and      
    city governments while augmenting the power of community councils (220    
    local communes have been listed by the government thus far.) The          
    majority of members of these communes would come from the ruling United   
    Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV,) thereby providing the regime with    
    direct access to small, local governing bodies that will stay loyal to    
    PSUV interests.                                                           
                                                                              
    Though the idea of sidelining money launderers from the cash-based food   
    industry makes strategic sense from the point of view of a government     
    trying to reverse the crippling side-effects of this gaming scheme, a     
    number of pitfalls can already be seen in this legislation. Introducing   
    dozens of alternative currencies for a specific sector will further       
    complicate the already-complicated two-tiered currency exchange regime    
    that differentiates between essential and non-essential foods, while      
    undermining an already-weak bolivar by cutting the local currency out of  
    the food trade. A proliferation of local currencies also means            
    additional layers of bureaucracy will be necessary to manage and          
    implement the new law, and more bureaucracy in Venezuela means more       
    potential for corruption. The local food currency would also eventually   
    have to be transacted into bolivars, and deep-seated corruption in the    
    higher levels of the institutions responsible for such large-scale        
    transactions could end up greatly undermining the primary objective of    
    the plan to root out speculation. In short, the government is still       
    treating the symptoms, and not the cause, of this money laundering        
    scheme and the proposals made thus far to rein in speculators look to     
    have a number of shortcomings.                                            
                                                                              
     The Legal Battle                                                         
                                                                              
    A crackdown within the regime's inner circle to rein in this racket       
    could turn politically explosive, especially when senior members of the   
    Chavez government already appear to have piles of evidence stacked        
    against them in U.S. courts. In mid-May, Chavez publicly warned in a      
    speech broadcast on state television station Venezolana de Television     
    that a U.S. district judge in Miami may soon be ordering the arrest of    
    Chavez, Vice President Elias Jaua, Minister of Planning and Finance       
    Jorge Giordani and other members of the president's inner circle,         
    \"instead of the real culprits.\" Chavez's unusual warning is yet another   
    manifestation of how the state's money-laundering scheme has grown too    
    large and too loud for the regime to manage. Venezuelan businessman and   
    banker Ricardo Fernandez Barrueco, for example, was a close associate of  
    Venezuelan political elites like Public Works and Housing Minister        
    Diosdado Cabello and the president's older brother, Adan Chavez.          
    Barrueco is believed to have used his main business front, the Proarepa   
    Group, to open a number of offshore accounts in the Caribbean, Lebanon,   
    Europe and elsewhere to store funds looted from the state oil firm and    
    its subsidiaries. Barrueco's operation eventually got too exposed and he  
    became a liability for the regime, leading to his reported arrest in      
    November 2009. But silencing Barrueco alone will not assuage the          
    regime's concerns over the evidence sitting in courts in Miami and New    
    York that could implicate senior members of the Chavez regime.            
                                                                              
     Other Beneficiaries                                                      
                                                                              
    Considering the prevalence of the black market, it would appear logical   
    that the country's unsustainable currency arrangement is benefiting a     
    number of other illicit actors. For those state entities experiencing     
    cash-flow problems, local drug dealers (who have expertise swapping       
    currency at multiple rates in multiple places) are believed to be         
    providing local currency to at least some of these firms and thus         
    filtering their drug money through the exchange-rate regime. The drug     
    revenues are also strongly believed to form the basis of Venezuela's      
    financial support for U.S.-designated terrorist groups like the           
    Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National            
    Liberation Army (ELN) - allegations which are now regaining steam         
    following Colombia's recent decision to release new evidence of           
    Venezuelan support for FARC and ELN rebels.                               
                                                                              
    Driving the U.S. interest in this issue is the connection between         
    Venezuela's money- laundering scheme and Iran. In recent years, in an     
    effort to escape the heavy weight of economic sanctions, Iran has turned  
    to Venezuela to facilitate Iran's access to Western financial markets.    
    Banco Internacional de Desarrollo (EBDI) is a financial institution       
    based in Caracas that operates under the jurisdiction of the Export       
    Development Bank of Iran, designated as a sanctions violator by the       
    European Union as recently as July 27 and by the U.S. Treasury            
    Department in October 2008 for providing financial access to the Islamic  
    Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a major force in the Iranian economy    
    and the prime target of the U.S. sanctions campaign. Though the extent    
    to which Iranian money is funneled through Venezuelan channels is         
    unclear, evidence has been building in the United States that reveals     
    murky transactions among IRGC-owned companies, a Caracas-based EBDI       
    subsidiary, PDVSA entities in Europe and the Caribbean and even banks in  
    Lebanon. And with the U.S. sanctions effort accelerating in Washington,   
    any state willing to enforce the sanctions and crack down on              
    IRGC-affiliated entities can shut down these financial loopholes at any   
    point. STRATFOR cannot quantify the Iranian-Venezuelan money-laundering   
    connection, but any such connection to the IRGC would be a red flag for   
    U.S. Treasury officials looking to fortify sanctions against Iran.        
                                                                              
    Combined with the developing money-laundering and drug-trafficking cases  
    in Miami that threaten to implicate senior members of the Venezuelan      
    regime, the Iranian link is yet another tool that Washington could use    
    to pressure the Venezuelan government should the need arise. Putting the  
    significant enforceability issues of such court cases aside, the          
    district court attorneys preparing these cases against the Chavez         
    government would not be able to launch them without the permission of     
    the Obama administration, given the diplomatic fallout that could         
    follow. So far, there are no indications that the administration is       
    looking to pick this fight with Chavez, but the mere threat that          
    Washington is now able to hang over the Chavez regime's head is enough    
    to make the Venezuelan leader nervous, hence his public warning to his    
    constituents that Washington is preparing a grand conspiracy against      
    him. The nightmare scenario for Caracas is one in which the White House   
    chooses to expose the charges against the regime and use the evidence to  
    justify a temporary cutoff of the roughly 12.5 percent of U.S. crude oil  
    imports (47 percent of Venezuelan crude exports) that the United States   
    receives from Venezuela for just enough time to crack the regime. Though  
    Venezuela is far down on the U.S. foreign-policy priority list, making    
    such a scenario extremely unlikely for the moment, Venezuela's            
    vulnerability to Washington's whims is increasing with each day that      
    this money- laundering scheme shows signs of unraveling.                  
                                                                              
    In addition to the money-laundering scheme explained above, the           
    Venezuelan economy is currently dealing with a rash of other problems:    
                                                                              
      * The devaluation has only been partly effective and the short-term     
        benefits have largely run their course. Devaluing helps recalibrate   
        the bolivar by bringing it closer to its true (lower) value, but it   
        does not address the underlying causes of continued bolivar           
        weakness. Therefore the bolivar remains overvalued and the supply of  
        foreign exchange (U.S. dollars) to the market is still restricted.    
        Cracking down on the parallel market and regulating it will likely    
        lead to the emergence of another black market. Consequently, the      
        fixed exchange rate will again become overvalued, which will          
        eventually require further devaluation (most likely after the         
        September elections), which will generate more inflation.             
      * These problems are forcing the government to take increasing control  
        of and/or regulate large sectors of the economy, while state-owned    
        companies that control the most strategic sectors are having          
        cash-flow problems and are unable to manage these sectors.            
      * The currency regime has given rise to widespread fraud and            
        corruption; the scheme described above is just the most visible one.  
        There is undoubtedly more corruption and fraud permeating the         
        system, exacerbated by the multi-tiered exchange rate and the         
        government's restricting access to it.                                
      * The economy is becoming increasing reliant on PDSVA oil revenues      
        while the non-oil economy buckles. Venezuelan non-commodity exports   
        are too expensive, and the government must increase its imports of    
        goods to make up for domestic production shortfalls. This makes the   
        economy increasingly reliant on the dollar revenues generated by the  
        state-owned oil company, which has experienced declining production   
        for almost a decade.                                                  
                                                                              
    All these problems combined are raising the political stakes for the      
    Venezuelan government. The government's response to the crisis has been   
    to bolster its control of the economy - particularly its control over     
    the most strategic sectors - in an effort to slow the economic decline.   
    The government has shut down or nationalized hundreds of businesses in    
    the wake of January's devaluation for various stated reasons, including   
    price gouging, hoarding and speculation. More recently, the government    
    made sweeping changes to the mandate of the Venezuelan Central Bank to    
    vastly expand its influence over the real economy. And in an effort to    
    both clean the books and root out the speculators, hundreds of brokerage  
    firms have been shut down by the state. Without the technical skills and  
    basic logistical ability to manage enlarged state enterprises, however,   
    the state is exacerbating the very symptoms it is trying to treat.        
    Venezuela still has dollars to draw from the central bank and the state   
    development fund Fonden to delay its day of reckoning, but it can no      
    longer conceal the unsustainability of this economic regime.              
                                                                              
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","2010-08-04 16:03:33",1,"2012-03-08 05:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1333034_special-report-venezuela-s-unsustainable-economic-paradigm-.html","noreply@stratfor.com","","allstratfor@stratfor.com",""
1334309,"Chavez's Health and Implications for Chinese Investment
","    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Chavez's Health and Implications for Chinese Investment                    
                                                                              
    June 29, 2011 | 1904 GMT                                                  
    Chavez's Health and Implications for Chinese Investment                   
    MINORU IWASAKI-Pool/Getty Images                                          
    Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez (L) and Chinese President Hu Jintao      
    Summary                                                                   
                                                                              
    The absence of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez due to health reasons     
    has caused uncertainty about Venezuela's future, and this is cause for    
    concern in China. China has made significant financial investments in     
    and commitments to Venezuela, from which Venezuela has benefited          
    greatly. China risks losing billions of dollars if Venezuela              
    destabilizes, and in the long term, it fears losing the standing          
    preferential relationship with Caracas if the government changes and      
    Venezuela begins to look elsewhere for technical expertise to accompany   
    investment.                                                               
                                                                              
    Analysis                                                                  
                                                                              
    Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez appeared on Venezuelan television June   
    29 in a recording that was reportedly made the morning of June 28. It is  
    unclear from the video exactly how healthy the South American leader is   
    after he was hospitalized in Cuba on June 10, undergoing abdominal        
    surgery apparently related to prostate cancer. Though he reportedly       
    intends to return to Caracas by July 5 for the country's independence     
    day and bicentennial celebration, it is not yet clear that he will be     
    well enough to do so. With Chavez having been in a Cuban hospital for     
    nearly three weeks, Venezuela has been rife with rumors about his         
    sickness, and a power struggle among his inner circle has been under      
    way.                                                                      
                                                                              
    There are many players with a stake in the Venezuelan regime, but one of  
    the most important in the past several years has been China, which could  
    be affected greatly by a transition in Venezuela's government. China      
    does not stand to lose much in the short term and hopes to continue       
    investing in Venezuela, but a transition away from Chavez and Caracas'    
    need for technical expertise to accompany investment could threaten       
    China's preferential standing with Venezuela.                             
                                                                              
     Chinese Interests in Venezuela                                           
                                                                              
    China has not commented officially on Chavez's illness, but China has     
    become increasingly invested in Venezuela and has built a unique          
    relationship with the Venezuelan government. Although the exact numbers   
    have been difficult to confirm, since 2005, China has made hard asset     
    investments and loans as well as commitments for further loan and         
    investments to Venezuela worth about $49.5 billion. Some of the loans     
    have reportedly been paid back in oil, and about $10 billion worth of     
    loans will reportedly be delivered in yuan, which China can print at      
    will and is only accepted as currency by the Chinese government and       
    firms. The terms on the financing vary, but China has been careful to     
    ensure that it has taken a strong role in how the money is spent, with    
    joint decision-making on the projects and a commitment to hiring Chinese  
    firms written into the agreements. Of the total amount that has been      
    invested and discussed, we estimate conservatively that China could be    
    exposed to losses of around $14 billion if Venezuela reneged on its       
    commitments.                                                              
                                                                              
    [IMG] China's interest in Venezuela is multifaceted. In the first place,  
    Venezuela has one of the largest energy reserves in the world, with       
    proven oil reserves of 211 billion barrels and 179 trillion cubic feet    
    of proven natural gas reserves. Much of this oil is so thick it requires  
    special processing before it can be shipped to a refinery. By             
    establishing a relationship with Venezuela, China not only has a chance   
    to learn some of the processing techniques for heavy, sour crude oil,     
    which is an increasing portion of the global oil mix, but it also is      
    able to actually invest in oil production that supplies its own           
    consumption market. Both of these interests are being addressed in a      
    pending deal to build a refinery with a capacity of 400,000 barrels per   
    day in China*s Guangdong province.                                        
                                                                              
    Chavez's Health and Implications for Chinese Investment                   
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
    Second, China has a global outward investment strategy that has targeted  
    Venezuela, among others, for its natural resources and opportunities for  
    Chinese business. This strategy allows China to invest its massive cash   
    surpluses in hard assets worldwide and helps it handle domestic money     
    growth. It also expands markets for Chinese exporters and state           
    infrastructure and industry. China has long invested in several           
    extremely risky countries and governments at variance with the United     
    States or the West, or otherwise viewed as at high risk of instability,   
    including North Korea, Myanmar, Iran, Sudan, Angola and Venezuela.        
    Having arrived late in the global race for resources and markets, China   
    has seized opportunities shunned by the West, and with its large cash     
    reserves and willingness to offer financing without political             
    requirements, it has attracted interest from these regimes.               
                                                                              
     Investment in Unstable Countries                                         
                                                                              
    China generally believes it can secure its investments by cultivating     
    relations across these countries' regimes and political elite, though it  
    is well aware that losses could result when it chooses to invest in       
    unstable countries. Outside of Venezuela, China has a number of           
    investments worth hundreds of billions of dollars in unstable countries.  
    STRATFOR sources suggest that China may have more than $30 billion at     
    risk in Libya, where it has recently begun negotiating with the rebels    
    to try to ensure that interests established under the regime of leader    
    Moammar Gadhafi will be protected under any potential Libyan government   
    ruled by the rebels. Chavez's illness and the instability in Libya (as    
    well as the broader Middle East and Africa) reveal a certain degree of    
    strategic weakness inherent in investing in potentially volatile          
    emerging markets, especially where China's main advantage is the          
    regime's estrangement from China's competitors in the West. The           
    potential loss of tens of billions of dollars worth of investment into    
    these economies has prompted a reconsideration of such risks, but         
    STRATFOR sources suggest that Chinese bank regulators' latest attempts    
    to pull back on foreign investments and loans have been rebuffed by the   
    Chinese national banks.                                                   
                                                                              
    For Venezuela, the relationship with China has been important for both    
    financial and political reasons. Since the 2002 coup attempt against      
    Chavez - during which the United States was quick to acknowledge the      
    military leaders that briefly took power - Venezuela has been working to  
    isolate itself from the United States by seeking alternative allies and   
    diversifying its oil export markets. As the most aggressive global        
    lender, particularly in the wake of the financial crisis when lending     
    was nearly nonexistent, and a huge consumer of oil, China has become a    
    natural partner for Venezuela. Presiding over an increasingly unstable    
    economy, Chavez has needed to increase borrowing to cover expenditures    
    and debts on a number of fronts. From a severe national housing shortage  
    to a deteriorating electricity system and an oil sector suffering from    
    severe mismanagement and underinvestment, Chavez has needed the Chinese   
    as a political backer, but most important, as a financial backer. This    
    need has meant that China has enjoyed a great deal of leverage over       
    Venezuela and made it easy for China to get the terms it wanted on the    
    loans and investments it made.                                            
                                                                              
     Implications of Chavez's Illness                                         
                                                                              
    The Venezuelan government is highly personalized, and a great deal in     
    Venezuelan politics relies on the personal preferences of Chavez. There   
    are no other leaders who are positioned to take control in a scenario     
    where Chavez is incapacitated or a change in government becomes a         
    necessity. China worries that if something were to happen to Chavez,      
    their preferential treatment and access to investments and financing      
    could dissipate. This concern to extend the relationship beyond the       
    confines of a personal relationship with Chavez can be seen in the        
    successful push that got the terms of Chinese loans written into          
    Venezuelan law. The Chinese could still make deals with a new Venezuelan  
    government, but it would require forming relationships with a whole new   
    ruling elite.                                                             
                                                                              
    In the short term, the risk posed by Chavez's current illness is that     
    there could be a destabilization of the government if he is not able to   
    return to power in the near future. This could directly threaten China's  
    in-country assets. However, unless the country dissolves into civil war   
    and outright destroys Chinese direct investments, it is unlikely that a   
    successor government would walk away from its debts to the world's        
    biggest lender. And, for China, this is a relatively small amount of      
    money, as its annual external investment totaled around $59 billion in    
    2010 alone.                                                               
                                                                              
    The longer-term reality is that China will lose its preferential access   
    to Venezuelan resources. Even if Chavez*s current illness does not bring  
    about a change in government, a transition is in the cards at some        
    point, and a change in the Venezuelan government may shift the            
    incentives that make the current partnership with China so important. It  
    is Chavez*s policy of isolation from the United States combined with      
    China*s \"no strings attached\" lending policy that makes China a perfect   
    partner for the moment.                                                   
                                                                              
    However, there are opportunity costs accruing to Venezuela as a result    
    of its commitments to China. Venezuela's oil industry is suffering from   
    a profound lack of technical expertise to accompany investments, and the  
    Chinese simply do not have the technical ability to help revive           
    dwindling production.                                                     
                                                                              
    The pressing need for Venezuela to resuscitate its oil industry with      
    foreign expertise will eventually necessitate a reconsideration of its    
    isolationist policies - and a leadership change will make this more of a  
    political possibility than it currently is under the Chavez               
    administration, as it will require a more conciliatory posture toward     
    the United States. For China, this will mean higher competition for       
    access to Venezuelan energy resources, and although no one can compete    
    with China's quantity of cash, it does not have the expertise Venezuela   
    needs.                                                                    
                                                                              
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    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
    Not For Publication                                                       
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
","2011-06-29 23:10:49",1,"2012-04-26 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1334309_chavez-s-health-and-implications-for-chinese-investment-.html","noreply@stratfor.com","mailto:stratforaustin@stratfor.com","allstratfor@stratfor.com",""
1339369,"Anonymous vs. Zetas Amid Mexico's Cartel Violence
","    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Anonymous vs. Zetas Amid Mexico's Cartel Violence                          
                                                                              
    November 2, 2011                                                          
                                                                              
    Readers Comment on STRATFOR Reports                                       
                                                                              
    By Scott Stewart                                                          
                                                                              
    The online activist collective Anonymous posted a message on the          
    Internet on Oct. 31 saying it would continue its campaign against         
    Mexican criminal cartels and their government supporters despite the      
    risks.                                                                    
                                                                              
    The message urged inexperienced activists, who might not be practicing    
    proper online security measures, to abstain from participating. It also   
    urged individuals associated with Anonymous in Mexico not to conduct      
    physical pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy    
    Fawkes masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their Internet or              
    physical-world activities. Guy Fawkes was a British Roman Catholic        
    conspirator involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament on Nov. 5,  
    1605. The British celebrate the plot's failure as Guy Fawkes Day each     
    Nov. 5. In modern times, the day has come to have special meaning for     
    anarchists. Since 2006, the style of the Guy Fawkes mask used in the      
    movie \"V for Vendetta\" has become something of an anarchist icon in the   
    United Kingdom and elsewhere.                                             
                                                                              
    Related Video                                                             
      * [IMG] Dispatch: Anonymous' Online Tactics Against Mexican Cartels     
                                                                              
    It was no coincidence, then, that in an Oct. 6 video Anonymous activists  
    set Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release an Anonymous          
    associate allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz. The associate reportedly was   
    abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign called \"Operation           
    Paperstorm.\"                                                              
                                                                              
    The Oct. 31 message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,    
    dubbed \"Operation Cartel,\" would be dangerous. It noted that some         
    members of the collective would form a group of trusted associates to     
    participate in a special task force to execute the operation. It asked    
    supporters to pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to the      
    Operation Cartel task force for publication on the Internet via a         
    software tool developed by Anonymous that permits the anonymous passing   
    of information.                                                           
                                                                              
    When discussing Anonymous, it is important to remember that Anonymous is  
    not a hierarchical organization, but rather a collective of activists.    
    Individuals who choose to associate themselves with the collective        
    frequently disagree over issues addressed by the collective and are free  
    to choose which actions to support and/or participate in.                 
                                                                              
    With Nov. 5 approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not      
    backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be        
    useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous  
    and Los Zetas and to address some of its potential implications.          
                                                                              
     Context                                                                  
                                                                              
    The Mexican port city of Veracruz has been the epicenter of this event.   
    Veracruz has been a busy place over the past few months in terms of       
    Mexico's cartel wars. The port serves as a critical transportation hub    
    for Los Zetas narcotics smuggling. Because of this, STRATFOR has          
    identified Veracruz as a bellwether for determining Los Zetas'            
    trajectory in the coming months.                                          
                                                                              
    In a major recent development in Veracruz, the Sinaloa cartel began an    
    offensive into the Zetas stronghold using the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva     
    Generacion (CJNG), which, under the name \"Matazetas\" (Spanish for \"Zeta   
    killers\"), conducted high-profile body dumps of more than 50 alleged      
    low-level Zetas operatives on Sept. 20 and Sept. 22. On Oct. 25, Mexican  
    marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, also known as \"El Bam     
    Bam,\" who was the Zetas' plaza boss in Veracruz. The Zetas in Veracruz    
    thus are feeling pressure from both the Mexican government and the CJNG.  
                                                                              
    The Anonymous Internet collective entered this dynamic in August with     
    its activities in Veracruz. It is common knowledge that members of        
    local, state and federal governments in Mexico support various cartel     
    groups. In the state of Veracruz, it is generally believed that some      
    members of the state government support Los Zetas, the dominant cartel    
    there. In response to this corruption, some who have associated           
    themselves with Anonymous launched Operation Paperstorm. These activists  
    distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz denouncing the state government  
    for supporting Los Zetas. They conducted leaflet distributions Aug. 13,   
    Aug. 20 and Aug. 29. They also released videos on the Internet on Aug.    
    26 and Aug. 29 condemning the Veracruz state government.                  
                                                                              
    Activities outside Veracruz also played a part in setting the stage. On   
    Sept. 13, the bodies of two people who had been tortured and killed were  
    hung from a pedestrian overpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state. Signs  
    left with the bodies said Los Zetas had killed the pair because they had  
    posted information pertaining to the Zetas on blogs that specialize in    
    reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept. 26, the decapitated body of    
    Marisol Macias Castaneda was found in a park in Nuevo Laredo. Macias,     
    who worked for a local newspaper, allegedly posted on cartel blogs using  
    the nickname \"Laredo Girl.\" A message found with her body said the Zetas  
    killed her due to her online activities.                                  
                                                                              
    Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for  
    a distributed denial of service attack against the official website of    
    the state of Veracruz. Although her murder occurred outside of the        
    state, Anonymous said its attack on the Veracruz website was in response  
    to Laredo Girl's death. This indicates that activists understand that     
    Los Zetas are active in both areas and suggests that Veracruz             
    state-based activists are driving the Anonymous campaign against Los      
    Zetas.                                                                    
                                                                              
    Significantly, some individuals associated with Anonymous already were    
    unhappy with the state of Veracruz over its decision to prosecute two     
    individuals who had posted kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug. 25 that  
    proved false. According to the reports, a group of children had been      
    abducted from a Veracruz school. The inaccurate reports allegedly caused  
    some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed to the       
    school to check on their children. The so-called Twitter terrorists       
    initially were charged with offenses that could have carried a 30-year    
    sentence. Some associated with Anonymous, which has absolute freedom of   
    speech on the Internet as one of its foundational principles, took        
    umbrage at the prospect of such stiff penalties - especially given the    
    stark contrast with the impunity enjoyed by many cartel figures in        
    Mexico.                                                                   
                                                                              
    STRATFOR began to focus on the story following the Oct. 6 release of the  
    video in which Anonymous activists threatened to release information      
    about individuals cooperating with Los Zetas if the Zetas did not         
    release the Anonymous activist kidnapped during Operation Paperstorm. In  
    light of the approaching Nov. 5 deadline, we published an analysis of     
    the topic on Oct. 28; the topic subsequently received a great deal of     
    media coverage.                                                           
                                                                              
    This publicity has generated a very interesting response from Anonymous   
    that emphasizes that it is a collective, not an organization. Some        
    Anonymous activists began to back off the issue, erasing online user      
    accounts formerly associated with the campaign, suggesting the operation  
    against Los Zetas had been a hoax and claiming that no activist had been  
    kidnapped. Other activists suggested that the campaign was dangerous,     
    ill-advised and should be suspended. Still other activists became more    
    strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign          
    continue. As noted, Anonymous' collective nature means activists can      
    select the actions they participate in, including Operation Cartel. It    
    would only take one dedicated individual to continue the operation.       
                                                                              
    The will to continue was manifested Oct. 29 with the hacking of the       
    personal website of Gustavo Rosario Torres, the former attorney general   
    of the Mexican state of Tabasco. The site was defaced with a message      
    from Anonymous Mexico stating that Rosario is a Zeta. Rosario has long    
    been accused in the Mexican and international media of protecting Los     
    Zetas, and videos long have circulated on YouTube making the same         
    charge. The hacking of his website thus did not provide any startling     
    revelation; Anonymous will have to uncover and publish original and       
    timely information if it hopes to do much damage to Los Zetas.            
                                                                              
    The determination by some activists to continue the operation against     
    Los Zetas also was reflected in the tone of the Oct. 31 message. Some     
    activists associated with Anonymous clearly feel compelled to continue    
    with the campaign over what they have characterized as an outpouring of   
    public support in the wake of the media coverage. According to their      
    Oct. 31 video statement:                                                  
                                                                              
      \"We received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the  
      voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the   
      side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in    
      critical moments like the one they currently live in.\"                  
                                                                              
    We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the   
    campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.                    
                                                                              
     Blowback                                                                 
                                                                              
    Mexico's various cartels long have used the Internet to trumpet their     
    triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even degrade their enemies.  
    The cartels have posted videos of the torture, execution and desecration  
    of the corpses of rivals. They also frequently monitor narcoblogs and     
    sometimes even post on them. As demonstrated by the September blogger     
    killings in Nuevo Laredo, Los Zetas appear to possess at least some       
    rudimentary capability to trace online activity to people in the          
    physical world. They are known to employ their own team of dedicated      
    cyber experts and to have sources within the Mexican government.          
                                                                              
    In addition to technical intelligence, the Zetas can use old-fashioned    
    human intelligence to track down their online enemies. People sometimes   
    discuss their online identities with family and friends, and such         
    information can be overheard and passed to Los Zetas in return for        
    money. This danger was recognized in the Oct. 31 video from Anonymous     
    that urges participants in their campaign not to discuss their            
    activities with anyone.                                                   
                                                                              
    In past Anonymous actions, like the December 2010 attack against PayPal   
    after the WikiLeaks scandal broke, the U.S. and British governments       
    arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly     
    participated in the attacks. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of      
    activists associated with Anonymous actions conducted against the         
    Turkish government in response to its plan to establish a national        
    Internet-filtering system. This indicates that some activists associated  
    with Anonymous are not nearly as anonymous as they would like to be.      
    Every action on the Internet leaves some sort of trail, making it very    
    difficult to be truly anonymous.                                          
                                                                              
    Like other Mexican cartels, Los Zetas do not take affronts lightly. Even  
    if Anonymous cannot provide information that damages Los Zetas smuggling  
    operations, the very fact that the collective has decided publicly to     
    challenge Los Zetas will result in some sort of response. The big         
    question is whether the Zetas possess the capability to trace the         
    organizers of the Anonymous action?                                       
                                                                              
    One challenge with tracking an entity such as Anonymous is that it is     
    intentionally amorphous. It is also as transnational as the Internet,     
    and it would be unsurprising if many of those chosen to participate in    
    the operation against Los Zetas are located in the United Sates, Europe   
    and other areas that are outside the Zetas' immediate reach.              
                                                                              
    The amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way, however.    
    If Los Zetas abduct and execute random patrons at an Internet cafe,       
    behead them and place Guy Fawkes masks on their heads, it will be very    
    difficult to prove that they were not associated with Anonymous. Los      
    Zetas also could execute random people and claim they had provided        
    Anonymous with information in order to intimidate people from actually    
    cooperating with Anonymous. As Anonymous noted in its Oct. 31 video,      
    this is dangerous business indeed.                                        
                                                                              
     The Big Picture                                                          
                                                                              
    How the Mexican public reacts to the Anonymous operation must be          
    watched. The criminal cartels and their violence have deeply affected     
    many people in Mexico's middle and upper classes. STRATFOR talks to many  
    people in Mexico who fear that they or a family member will be            
    kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like Ciudad Juarez,     
    Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen find themselves in a         
    terrible bind. They face ever-increasing extortion demands from the       
    cartels while their business revenues dwindle because the violence        
    associated with those same cartels has frightened people into not going   
    out. This is forcing many small businesses to close. It also is creating  
    a great deal of frustration and resentment.                               
                                                                              
    At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries   
    in the world for journalists, and many media organizations practice       
    heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the           
    September blogger killings, some of the narcoblogs, like Blog del Narco,  
    have exhibited strong signs of self-censorship inspired by fear. As a     
    result, many Mexicans believe the mainstream media are not of any real    
    assistance in the face of cartel violence.                                
                                                                              
    Mexican citizens also are frustrated with their government, which, as     
    noted, is well-known for corruption. This sentiment is feeding            
    Anonymous' original campaign in Veracruz. This frustration even has led   
    some people to begin discussing the creation of vigilante groups to       
    fight the cartels - though this has been attempted before in Mexico. As   
    we saw in the case of La Familia Michoacana, which began as such a        
    vigilante group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.                
                                                                              
    This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely  
    on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for         
    assistance, they may embrace Anonymous, coming to view its form of        
    cybervigilantism as an outlet for their frustration. If Anonymous is      
    perceived as a safe way to pass information pertaining to cartel          
    activities, we may see people from all over the country begin to share    
    intelligence. Such human intelligence could very well prove to be far     
    more damaging to the cartels than any information Anonymous activists     
    can dredge up electronically. As this operation is becoming more widely   
    publicized, the pool of people outside Mexico who might wish to           
    participate will likely grow. The number of people inside Mexico who      
    wish to provide information might grow as well.                           
                                                                              
    Anonymous has taken on many powerful entities in the past, such as major  
    transnational corporations and governments. But the repercussions from    
    participating in such operations were never as grave for online           
    activists as they are in this case. Being identified and detained by      
    Scotland Yard or the FBI is a far different situation than being          
    identified and detained by Los Zetas.                                     
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
    Not For Publication                                                       
                                                                              
    Reprinting or republication of this report on websites is authorized by   
    prominently displaying the following sentence at the beginning or end of  
    the report, including the hyperlink to STRATFOR:                          
                                                                              
    \"This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR\"                  
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
","2011-11-03 15:27:01",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1339369_anonymous-vs-zetas-amid-mexico-s-cartel-violence-.html","noreply@stratfor.com","mailto:stratforaustin@stratfor.com","allstratfor@stratfor.com",""
1346433,"Dispatch: Mainland China's \"Occupy Wall Street\" Reaction
","    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Dispatch: Mainland China's \"Occupy Wall Street\" Reaction                   
                                                                              
    October 19, 2011 | 2044 GMT                                               
    Click on image below to watch video:                                      
    [IMG]                                                                     
                                                                              
    China Director Jennifer Richmond explains why the \"Occupy Wall Street\"    
    movement failed to gain traction in mainland China.                       
                                                                              
       Editor*s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition      
       technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete        
       accuracy.                                                              
                                                                              
    Related Links                                                             
      * China Political Memo: Wenzhou Backs Away from the `Wenzhou Model'     
      * The Effects of Chinese Economic Development on Illicit Trade          
      * China Political Memo: Governmental Reforms for Economic Problems?     
                                                                              
    The \"Occupy Wall Street\" movement has gone global and there have even     
    been attempts to capitalize on this movement in various Chinese cities.   
    The \"Occupy China\" movement, however, has failed to gain traction on the  
    mainland.                                                                 
                                                                              
    We really didn't expect to see this movement transfer to mainland China;  
    however, given the Jasmine protests earlier this year, there were many    
    who were waiting to see whether or not this movement could be             
    rejuvenated by the global call to action. The global Occupy movement      
    lacks a nucleus or leadership. Despite a common theme of corporate        
    greed, there is very little direction on how to proceed and, under these  
    circumstances, we have seen no contagion effect in mainland China.        
                                                                              
    However, the Tiananmen protests in 1989 also started with very little     
    leadership or direction, and many Chinese activists that I've spoken      
    with feel that all that is needed is a spark to ignite a fire. After      
    all, there are plenty of protests localized daily in China, revolving     
    around issues such as land grabs, the environment and even corruption.    
                                                                              
    The Jasmine Movement provided a spark for organized action in China;      
    however, it quickly fizzled under an aggressive government response. The  
    Occupy China movement hasn't even gotten that far. While it is not        
    unforeseeable for a small movement to gain momentum in China, the         
    problem with both the Jasmine and the Occupy movements are that neither   
    were home-grown.                                                          
                                                                              
    Although the Jasmine movement was spearheaded by Chinese, it was done so  
    from overseas. The Occupy movement had supporters and organizers within   
    China, but the concept was foreign-generated.                             
                                                                              
    Moreover, the Chinese government and media has actually acknowledged the  
    Occupy movement in the U.S. and in the EU, taking the opportunity to      
    point out the failures of Wall Street and capitalism, while at the same   
    time, censoring any indication of an Occupy China movement. Also, many    
    Chinese do not have access to the social Internet sites that have helped  
    to ignite these movements in Western countries, namely Facebook. And      
    those that do, find this information quickly scrubbed off of similar      
    Chinese sites.                                                            
                                                                              
    Ultimately, the Chinese, even those that want change, are wary of         
    foreign influences. Anything emanating from outside of the state will be  
    used by the state to highlight foreign interference. That said the        
    domestic wealth gap and its ensuing tensions could generate a homegrown   
    movement that would threaten Beijing much more so than any Occupy Wall    
    Street movement could muster.                                             
                                                                              
    Click for more videos                                                     
                                                                              
    Give us your thoughts                          Read comments on           
    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
    For Publication                                Reader Comments            
                                                                              
    Not For Publication                                                       
                                                                              
    This report may be forwarded or republished on your website with          
    attribution to www.stratfor.com                                           
    Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact Us                                
    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
","2011-10-19 23:03:43",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1346433_dispatch-mainland-china-s-occupy-wall-street-reaction-.html","noreply@stratfor.com","","tim.duke@stratfor.com",""
1358712,"BRAZIL/ECON - bank faces allegations over Brazil
","   http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/183060f8-940d-11de-9c57-00144feabdc0.html

    US bank faces allegations over Brazil

   By Jonathan Wheatley in Sao Paulo

   Published: August 28 2009 21:06 | Last updated: August 29 2009 00:03

   The US Department of Justice has alleged that an employee of Brown
   Brothers Harriman, a US private bank, helped Brazilian clients avoid
   measures to detect money laundering and conceal the proceeds of crimes
   including fraud and tax evasion.

   The DoJ made the allegation in an application to freeze about $450m in an
   account held at BBH in New York in the name of Tiger Eye Investments
   Limited, a company registered in the Cayman Islands.

   The account was frozen on a request from the Brazilian government last
   December.

   The DoJ made its latest accusation in preparation for an Appeal Court
   hearing in October that will decide whether to maintain the freeze.
   Kenneth Counts, an investigator hired by the DoJ, said in an affidavit
   there was probable cause to believe Tiger Eye was owned by Daniel and
   Veronica Dantas, Brazilian brother and sister and business partners. Mr
   Dantas is founder and head of Opportunity, a Rio de Janeiro investment
   firm that formerly managed Citigroup's private equity interests in Brazil.
   The DoJ alleges the Tiger Eye account received redemptions from the
   Opportunity Fund, an off-shore fund managed by Opportunity and restricted
   under Brazilian law to foreign investors.

   BBH said: \"We have acted appropriately in regard to this client. There are
   no charges against BBH or any of its employees and no indication that BBH
   or its employees are under investigation by the DoJ.

   \"We are co-operating fully with the DoJ in its efforts to assist the
   Brazilian authorities.\"

   Opportunity said the restrain order was based on \"erroneous premises\". It
   added: \"Opportunity has never been involved in money laundering.
   Therefore, BBH has never helped Opportunity to launder money.\"

   Mr Counts's allegations against BBH concern instructions from Ms Dantas to
   transfer about $90m from accounts held at UBS Wealth Management in London
   and Banque Safra in Luxembourg into the Tiger Eye account in New York last
   year.

   Drawing on telephone conversations recorded by Brazilian police, his
   affidavit states: \"The BBH employee appears to tell Ms Dantas he can
   assist her to avoid providing further information to the anti-money
   laundering compliance components of two financial institutions.\"

   BBH said notwithstanding the transcript that it had provided anti-money
   laundering information.

   Last year, a Brazilian police investigation alleged the Opportunity Fund
   had been used illegally by Brazilian individuals and companies, avoiding
   tax on profits from those investments (which are tax free for foreign
   nationals) and concealing their ownership of large sums of money.

   Mr Dantas was temporarily detained twice last year for alleged crimes
   including fraud and money laundering. On both occasions he was released by
   Brazil's Supreme Court. He was found guilty in December of attempting to
   bribe a police investigator and sentenced to 10 years in prison.

   The sentence is suspended pending an appeal.

   Opportunity said: \"Daniel Dantas has never ordered, agreed with, suggested
   or participated in any offer of bribery to public agents.\"

   A further $168m was frozen in Brazil and about $46m in Britain, the DoJ
   said. To support its case at the appeals court the DoJ has presented
   documents prepared by Brazilian police which contain a list of more than
   70 individuals and companies which Brazilian authorities say invested in
   the Opportunity Fund. Among the list are dozens of individuals including
   one minor and several Brazilian companies and investment funds, including
   Opportunity companies.

   Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009. You may share using our
   article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by
   email or post to the web.
","2009-08-29 18:04:39",1,"2012-08-02 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1358712_brazil-econ-bank-faces-allegations-over-brazil-.html","kevin.stech@stratfor.com","mailto:econ@stratfor.com","econ@stratfor.com",""
1364544,"[alpha] Body bound for Dover, DE on CIA plane
","","2011-05-02 05:51:12",1,"2012-03-06 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1364544_-alpha-body-bound-for-dover-de-on-cia-plane-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1370900,"[Analytical & Intelligence Comments] RE: France: The Potential for a
	Europe-Wide Anti-Fracking Movement
","rollehogan@gmail.com sent a message using the contact form at  
https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

Stratfor,

Very insightful article although please keep in mind that the French do  
indeed have significant corporate expertise in High Pressure Fraccing. The  
French Oilfield Services company, Schlumberger, has the second largest High  
Pressure Frac fleet in the world, behind Halliburton. Schlumberger has  
approximately 1.8mln frac horsepower, 1.5mln of which is in N. America. This  
sevice line represents approximately $5.6bln in revenues for the French  
corporate giant in 2010. This doesn't weaken your argument, but it is  
reflective of the high politics at play in Paris.

Rolle Hogan




Source:  
http://www.stratfor.com/node/194202/analysis/20110511-france-potential-europe-wide-anti-fracking-movement
","2011-05-13 13:29:17",1,"2012-03-01 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1370900_-analytical-and-intelligence-comments-re-france-the.html","rollehogan@gmail.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com,mailto:responses@stratfor.com","responses@stratfor.com",""
1378798,"Re: [Eurasia] Athens' Indignants threaten political system
","   You know this happened in Mexico after the last Presidential elections and
   Calderon just let them sit there for a year and a half.

   On 6/3/11 8:26 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

     Depends on their numbers. If they get a massive group of people (very
     unlikely of course) just sitting around somewhere then it'll matter to
     some extent and at some point. But other than that you're right as long
     as they don't start rioting a bit they'll just be ignored under some
     kind of a number threshold.

     Look at Spain though, let's assume they get a few (in the high) hundreds
     for the nights and then thousands during the day. They'll force some
     kind of a reaction (especially because the Greek police cannot empty
     that square for political reasons). No idea what kind of number
     potential we're talking about with these guys though.

     On 06/03/2011 02:14 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

       Ok, so... If they refuse to vote for anyone and dont have the balls to
       riot, how do they matter? 
       It is a legit question. I am asking. 

       On Jun 3, 2011, at 8:08 AM, Benjamin Preisler
       <ben.preisler@stratfor.com> wrote:

 To Ethnos - Greece. For more than a week now the \"indignant
 citizens\" movement has been demonstrating in Athens against the
 government's drastic austerity measures. The protests are a
 symptom of a major crisis of the political system in which the
 great majority of citizens have lost faith in the parties,
 writes the left-liberal daily To Ethnos: \"Already the parties
 are discussing whether this phenomenon represents a threat to
 the political system, while others believe it is just an
 insignificant expression of anger - without political weight or
 serious repercussions. ... The people who have gathered at
 Athens' main square reject the entire structure of the system:
 the parties, trade unions, media and institutions. They are
 making the point that they won't vote for the [socialist ruling
 party] Pasok, or the [liberal-conservative opposition party] Nea
 Dimokratia, nor for the communist KKE party or the radical left
 coalition Syriza. This is why the parties are not taking a
 positive view of the demonstrators.\" (02/06/2011) +++
 http://www.ethnos.gr/article.asp?catid=22792&subid=2&pubid=63111062


 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic
","2011-06-03 15:50:23",1,"2011-03-05 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1378798_re-eurasia-athens-indignants-threaten-political-system-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com","eurasia@stratfor.com,ben.preisler@stratfor.com",""
1379157,"Re: [Eurasia] Athens' Indignants threaten political system
","   Depends on their numbers. If they get a massive group of people (very
   unlikely of course) just sitting around somewhere then it'll matter to
   some extent and at some point. But other than that you're right as long as
   they don't start rioting a bit they'll just be ignored under some kind of
   a number threshold.

   Look at Spain though, let's assume they get a few (in the high) hundreds
   for the nights and then thousands during the day. They'll force some kind
   of a reaction (especially because the Greek police cannot empty that
   square for political reasons). No idea what kind of number potential we're
   talking about with these guys though.

   On 06/03/2011 02:14 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     Ok, so... If they refuse to vote for anyone and dont have the balls to
     riot, how do they matter? 
     It is a legit question. I am asking. 

     On Jun 3, 2011, at 8:08 AM, Benjamin Preisler
     <ben.preisler@stratfor.com> wrote:

 To Ethnos - Greece. For more than a week now the \"indignant
 citizens\" movement has been demonstrating in Athens against the
 government's drastic austerity measures. The protests are a
 symptom of a major crisis of the political system in which the
 great majority of citizens have lost faith in the parties,
 writes the left-liberal daily To Ethnos: \"Already the parties
 are discussing whether this phenomenon represents a threat to
 the political system, while others believe it is just an
 insignificant expression of anger - without political weight or
 serious repercussions. ... The people who have gathered at
 Athens' main square reject the entire structure of the system:
 the parties, trade unions, media and institutions. They are
 making the point that they won't vote for the [socialist ruling
 party] Pasok, or the [liberal-conservative opposition party] Nea
 Dimokratia, nor for the communist KKE party or the radical left
 coalition Syriza. This is why the parties are not taking a
 positive view of the demonstrators.\" (02/06/2011) +++
 http://www.ethnos.gr/article.asp?catid=22792&subid=2&pubid=63111062


 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
","2011-06-03 15:26:31",1,"2011-03-05 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1379157_re-eurasia-athens-indignants-threaten-political-system-.html","ben.preisler@stratfor.com","mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com","eurasia@stratfor.com",""
1382436,"Chavez Shores up His Military Support
","    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Chavez Shores up His Military Support                                      
                                                                              
    November 12, 2010 | 1739 GMT                                              
    Chavez Shores up His Military Support                                     
    LOUAI BESHARA/AFP/Getty Images                                            
    Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in October                               
                                                                              
    Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez promoted Maj. Gen. Henry Rangel Silva,   
    currently Venezuela's chief of strategic operations for the armed         
    forces, to general in chief during a state television address late Nov.   
    11. Announcing the promotion, Chavez said \"the imperialist oligarchs      
    will never have an armed forces subordinated in the shadows to their      
    gross interests.\"                                                         
                                                                              
    The promotion comes after Rangel Silva publicly reaffirmed the loyalty    
    of the armed forces to the president Nov. 8, saying the military is       
    married to Chavez's political project. Rangel Silva added that the        
    military will not tolerate an opposition government win in 2012           
    elections, as it would try to \"sell\" the country to foreign interests.    
                                                                              
    A Chavez loyalist, Rangel Silva is thought to be one of the chief drug    
    traffickers in the Venezuelan armed forces. In 2008, the U.S. Treasury    
    Department listed Rangel Silva and Director of Military Intelligence      
    Hugo Carvajal as drug kingpins involved in financing the Revolutionary    
    Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) rebel group.                              
                                                                              
    Not by coincidence, Rangel Silva's defensive statements and his sudden    
    promotion come as Venezuelan drug kingpin Walid Makled, in Colombian      
    custody since his late August arrest, faces possible extradition to the   
    United States. Makled is thought to possess valuable recordings of        
    transactions incriminating high-ranking members of the Venezuelan         
    government in money laundering, drug trafficking and perhaps terrorism.   
    Rangel Silva, Carvajal, and Interior and Justice Minister Tareck El       
    Aissami could be on Makled's list. Given the tumult that would ensue      
    should high-ranking members of the Venezuelan government face such        
    serious criminal charges in a U.S. court, Caracas has pressed the         
    Colombian government to extradite Makled to Venezuela on the grounds      
    that he is a Venezuelan citizen.                                          
                                                                              
    Colombia is benefiting greatly from holding the threat of Makled's        
    extradition over Chavez. It is sharing intelligence from Makled with the  
    United States and would rather amplify Caracas' discomfort after years    
    of struggling to get the Venezuelan government to stop supporting FARC    
    rebels who have enjoyed refuge in Venezuela.                              
                                                                              
    As the pressure has increased, so has Caracas' desperation. By promoting  
    Rangel Silva, Chavez is attempting to reassure the armed forces that      
    regardless of Makled's fate, the president will not sacrifice his         
    loyalists to bargain his way out of a crisis. Such assurances may not     
    hold as much weight as before. High-ranking members of the government     
    may prove unwilling to gamble on Makled's fate and could make             
    contingency plans to protect their assets and themselves.                 
                                                                              
    The president's biggest fear is that such planning could destabilize his  
    government, perhaps culminating in a coup attempt down the road. This     
    explains almost daily announcements by Chavez's allies in the government  
    regarding mass expansions of the National Bolivarian Militia (NBM). The   
    NBM expansion has long upset many in the armed forces, who remain wary    
    that the NBM will encroach on their authority. The NBM is not a           
    particularly well-trained or capable fighting force, but recent efforts   
    to recruit trained soldiers to the militia indicate an effort by the      
    president to stymie possible coup plans by other segments of the armed    
    forces. The Rangel Silva promotion is thus a stark reminder that the      
    armed forces should be watched closely for any breakdowns in cohesion.    
    The potential for fissures in the military rises with the Venezuelan      
    government's vulnerabilities.                                             
                                                                              
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    on this report                                 other reports              
                                                                              
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    (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
","2010-11-12 19:19:23",1,"2012-03-09 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1382436_chavez-shores-up-his-military-support-.html","noreply@stratfor.com","","allstratfor@stratfor.com",""
1393779,"Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - Brazil's recession
","   \"Brazil's financial system has proven one of the world's more robust in
   stressed times. Tier 1 capital ratios are high (12%-13% for major banks),
   as are reserve requirements (30% pre-crisis). Domestic sources provide 96%
   of bank funding.\"  --second bullet on pg 4 of Goldman's \"Brazil vs.
   Russia: Resilience vs. Valuation\" April 7th, 2009.  attached.

 Robert Reinfrank
 STRATFOR Intern
 Austin, Texas
 P: + 1-310-614-1156
 robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

   Karen Hooper wrote:

     Do you have a source for that 95 percent number? That would surprise me
     if it were true since foreign companies control 30 percent of Brazil's
     bank deposits.

     Robert Reinfrank wrote:

       Nice work and an interesting read.  You may want to touch on the fact
       that Brazilian banks are also forbidden from lending in foreign
       currency, a practice which has trashed other emerging markets, and
       that domestic banks also account for ~95% of lending and therefore
       don't have to deal with capital flight that have completely enervated
       economies like Russia's.

 --
 Robert Reinfrank
 STRATFOR Intern
 Austin, Texas
 P: + 1-310-614-1156
 robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

       Karen Hooper wrote:

         Please let me know if you see places that are particularly wonky. I
         will make sure this gets a heavy vetting for understandability by
         the average reader before this goes to edit.

         As the financial crisis takes its toll, STRATFOR continues to watch
         the impact of the global economic downturn on Latin America, a
         region that has a history of relatively regular economic   crises.
         Perhaps uniquely for Latin America, the origins of this crisis have
         nothing to do with the Latin American policies this time around, and
         everything to do with instability in developed nations. This is cold
         comfort, however, as many developing states -- in Latin America and
         abroad -- have been shaken to the core by shrinking capital markets
         and plunging commodity prices. In this addition to STRATFOR's
         Recession Revisited series, we consider the impact of the crisis on
         Brazil, a developing country that is perhaps uniquely well suited to
         weathering the storm.
         The Geopolitics of Economics in Latin America
         >From the very beginning, Latin American states have been hampered
         in development by their own geography. With enormous geographical
         barriers to economic expansion, integration and trade, Latin
         American states started off at a disadvantage from the moment of
         independence. Without major river systems [LINK to weekly] to
         facilitate exploration, settlement, development and trade, Latin
         American governments had to attempt to forge transportation links
         throughout their countries using expensive foreign capital to build
         railways and roads. The reliance on international capital put Latin
         American countries at an immediate disadvantage, and the region's
         early history is characterized by numerous debt defaults to former
         colonizing nations. Without the ability to build reliable
         transportation networks, it has been extremely difficult for Latin
         American countries to accumulate domestic pools of capital, thus
         reinforcing the cycle of underdevelopment.

         The one river system that could potentially foster the kind of
         development that has characterized the United States is the Rio
         Plata. But the Rio Plata system is split among four countries --
         Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay -- and no one country has
         succeeded at utilizing the river's transportation potential as a
         stepping-stone towards development. Indeed, the perennial (if rather
         anti-climactic) struggle between Brazil and Argentina to exert
         maximum influence in the politics of the states that buffer the two
         South American giants (Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia) exemplifies
         the slow-rolling competition for control over the river drainage
         basin.

         At the moment, Brazil appears to be winning the struggle [LINK] for
         influence in South America, but it has been a long road for the
         Amazonian nation.

         Since independence in 1822, Brazil has bounced among many different
         economic management models. Much of Brazil's history was
         characterized by cycles of boom and bust related to oscillation in
         the price of key Brazilian commodity exports -- primarily coffee and
         sugar in the country's early history. In the 20th century, Brazil
         has gone through periodic spasms of industrial development and
         growth, punctuated by severe economic downturns, which culminated in
         an economic crisis in the late 1980's and early 1990's that was
         characterized by inflation of more than 2,400 percent per year.

         Plano Real, which finally solved Brazil's hyperinflation problem,
         was spearheaded by then-finance minister Fernando Henrique Cardoso
         in 1994 and established the currency Brazil uses today, the real.
         Aimed at cutting to the heart of the inflation problem -- massive
         and persistent government deficit spending -- Cardoso and his team
         drew up a balanced budget, and started a sustained public relations
         campaign to convince weary Brazilians that this anti-inflation plan
         would work (with an understanding that public acceptance of a new
         currency is key to maintaining its value). The real succeeded in
         maintaining a stable value, and Cardoso rode this success to the
         top, becoming president in 1995. Once in office, Cardoso pushed
         through a series of reforms. Many of these reforms necessitated a
         turnaround in Brazilian economic policy. Brazil abandoned the ideas
         of export-led growth and import substitution industrialization
         [LINK] and turned its sights towards cultivating liberal
         institutions and encouraging foreign direct investment. Cardoso's
         successor, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, continued
         the country's policies of fiscal prudence.
         Brazilian Banks
         Included in the reforms pursued in the late 1990's was the complete
         reorganization of the Brazilian banking industry. In the days of
         hyperinflation, banks were able to turn a quick buck by exploiting
         fluctuating currency value, and the whole enterprise was at once
         very profitable, highly corrupt and run by a unique set of rules.
         Once the currency was stabilized, many Brazilian banks that had poor
         accounting standards (something they could sustain with high profits
         from the hyperinflation) were unable to carry on. Several bank
         failures (in some cases of major banks) required a government
         bailout, led by the Brazilian Central Bank. Once involved in bailing
         out the banking sector, the Cardoso government was able to lift
         restrictions preventing foreign investment in banking and establish
         very conservative regulations on the sector.

         These regulations include some of the highest (if not the highest)
         reserve to deposit ratios in the world, at about 50 percent (prior
         to the crisis)***. Inspired in part because of fears that too much
         liquidity could endanger the stability of the real, this essentially
         means that for every real put into a Brazilian bank, the bank can
         lend half, but must keep the other half in a vault. For the sake of
         comparison, the United States maintains a reserve ratio of about 6.5
         percent (depending on the size of the bank and type of deposit).
         China's reserve ratio is about 15 percent.

         This does two notable things for Brazil: It slows growth because the
         banks have to maintain a tight grip on their capital, and makes the
         banks incredibly capital rich compared to other banks.

         Brazil has not been able to achieve the kind of growth it has
         yearned for, despite a relatively stable decade. Where China and
         India have seen growth rates soar, Brazil has had to be satisfied
         with a growth rate that has hovered around 5 percent in recent
         years. Though there are many reasons for this, part of Brazil's
         plodding growth rates can be linked to the reserve ratio. By
         reducing the amount of loans that can be made from bank deposits,
         Brazil permanently limits the amount of credit available to
         Brazilians. This stifles growth by restricting economic activity --
         capital is simply not as available for start-up companies to get
         loans, or existing companies to pursue innovation -- more, at least,
         than would a lower reserve ratio. This is exacerbated by a culture
         of extreme caution among Brazilian banks, which generally refrain
         from uncertain investments in order to maintain a high ratio of
         capital to risk.

         Ultimately, however, the reserve ratio also serves as a very
         effective insurance policy. Not only does it mean that banks have a
         harder time failing (if some loans go bad they still have plenty of
         cash on hand, whereas if the banks only maintained a 3 percent
         reserve ratio, it wouldn't take many bad loans to make the banks
         technically bankrupt). This also means that in a time of scarce
         capital resources the world `round, Brazil has the resources it
         needs to create liquidity. Though the Brazilian government has been
         cautious in loosening the reserves, it did let about $50 billion
         worth of reserves go in the first months after the crisis hit.

         As a result of Brazil's fiscal prudence over the past 14 or so
         years, the central bank has managed to store away $190.5 billion in
         official reserve assets***. Before the financial crisis, these
         reserves were even higher, at almost $207 billion. The government
         has another $24 billion in assets controlled by the Brazilian
         Development Bank (BNDES). In the private sector, capital
         accumulation is uniquely high, among Latin American countries.
         Because of extremely high reserve ratios on banking deposits --
         which is the percentage of each deposit that each bank has to hold
         onto, and cannot loan out -- the domestic banking sector boasts an
         impressive $100 billion in bank deposit reserves -- down 38.5
         percent from pre-crisis levels as the government has worked to
         increase credit throughout the country. Furthermore, Brazil's
         relative economic stability has earned the country the confidence of
         investors, who have responded with substantial foreign direct
         investment.
         The External Sector
         With domestic capital markets secure from the international turmoil,
         Brazil's biggest worry in the economic crisis is its external
         sector. Compared to many industrialized nations, Brazil has a
         relatively small export sector, which comprises about 13 percent of
         economic output. Of Brazil's exports, about 45 percent are
         manufactured goods, 30 percent are in raw commodities (such as oil,
         iron and soy), and the remainder is comprised mainly of
         semi-manufactured goods.

         Of Brazil's raw commodity exports, the energy sector is a
         particularly strong and promising area. Although Brazil will have to
         wait several more years before its recently discovered massive oil
         and natural gas deposits can be tapped [LINK], the country has an
         enormous amount of natural wealth that has clearly helped already --
         in Brazil's strong relationship with China -- and will continue to
         be a source of capital. Furthermore, Brazil's potential as an energy
         exporter is enhanced by the fact that it is the leading producer of
         ethanol, which means that Brazil can exploit the growing interest in
         integrating biofuels into national energy mixes. It also means that
         as soon as its oil wells do come online, they can translate much
         more quickly into exports and revenue generation. If Brazil follows
         through on plans currently under discussion to construct a
         petrochemical industry around its oil extraction, the country will
         find itself with a value-added industry that will further contribute
         to development.

         This commitment to value-added industry can be seen throughout
         Brazil's economy, which is characterized by relatively broad
         sectoral diversification. Brazil also has a substantial
         manufacturing sector. Brazil exports a number of industrial products
         that range from cars to petrochemicals to aircraft. Much of the
         industrial sector is led by a set of very able national champions.
         From Petroleos Brasilieros (Petrobras) [LINK] to Empresa Brasileira
         de Aeronautica (Embraer) [LINK], Brazil has a number of both
         publicly and privately owned companies that are extremely
         competitive in international markets, and operate with the full
         backing of the government. This well of strength is both economic
         and political. Brazil's ability to extend investment [LINK] and
         financing [LINK] -- a product of its substantial capital resources
         -- to partner countries all over the world means that Brazil has a
         growing number of opportunities even at a time of shrinking global
         wealth.

         However, Brazil's manufacturing sector has been hit the hardest by
         the downturn. While commodity exports were up just over 1 percent in
         the first quarter of 2009 as compared to the first quarter of 2008,
         manufacturing exports are down by 29.2 percent.

         In part, the impact on the external sector was caused by instability
         in the real. The financial crisis sparked immediate turmoil in the
         Brazilian currency, and the real's value tumbled almost 40 percent
         from highs in August to lows in December. The fall of the real
         sparked a trade crisis with Argentina [LINK], in which Argentina
         increased its non-tariff barriers to Brazilian goods (in order to
         protect its industries from suddenly much cheaper Brazilian
         imports), and exports to Argentina fell 49 percent from July to
         March. Over the same time period, total U.S. imports fell 34
         percent, triggering a 58 percent in Brazil's exports to the United
         States. The fall in exports came as a particularly harsh blow
         because the United States and Argentina tend to import higher
         value-added goods from Brazil. Overall, exports have dropped almost
         40 percent from highs in June -- due in part to the changing seasons
         and the fall in commodity prices -- although they have rebounded 20
         percent since January.

         Contributing to this, have been Brazilian exports to China, which
         have risen quite a bit in the wake of the crisis (after a sharp fall
         during the lead up to the U.S. financial sector's meltdown [LINK]).
         China's bid to secure access to natural resources all over the world
         has led the country to utilize its substantial capital reserves to
         cement business partnerships while prices are low, with an eye on
         securing access to the resources of the future. This has led China
         to stockpile some commodities, and seek partnerships with major
         natural resource producers, such as Brazil. Although China's
         increased imports from Brazil have been instrumental in spurring a
         current account surplus [LINK], because China's demand is primarily
         for commodities and unprocessed goods, increased trade with China
         cannot fix the damage to Brazil's manufacturing sector caused by
         collapsed trade with Argentina and the United States.

         There do appear to be some signs of recovery in the external sector
         already. After dropping by 17 percent in January, year-on-year,
         industrial production has increased for four straight months. Trade
         is recovering with some partners, including the United States. The
         Brazilian real has also begun to appreciate, although it is too
         early to say if the rally in markets around the world is here to
         stay. However, this is a mixed blessing, as the lower value for the
         real is a boon to Brazil's manufactured goods exports (commodities
         are all dollar-denominated). Brazilian Central Bank officials have
         sought to keep the Brazil at its devalued rate in order to hold on
         to the advantage.

         Unlike its southern neighbor, Argentina, which must keep its
         currency from devaluing or risk the rapid inflation of its foreign
         debt, Brazil's foreign debt profile is actually in pretty good
         shape. Brazil's foreign debt has held steady for the past several
         years, but GDP growth has brought foreign debt as a percentage of
         GDP down from 42 percent in 2002 to 12 percent in 2008. This is not
         to say that Brazil's debt structure is entirely rosy, as Brazil's
         total net public debt remains at 37 percent of GDP. With most of the
         debt held in domestic hands, it gives Brazil more flexibility to
         adjust its monetary policy vis-`a-vis its external markets, and it
         is an indication of the substantial capacity of the domestic capital
         markets.
         Conclusion
         Although Brazil has experienced a number of very serious challenges
         in relation to the international economic crisis, Brazil is
         remarkably well positioned to handle the crisis -- something that
         distinguishes Brazil from its Latin American fellows, and from
         developing nations all over the world. 

         Although Brazil's first quarter GDP measurements have not yet been
         released, the country appears to be well positioned to weather the
         storm. Official government estimates put Brazilian growth at about 1
         percent in 2009 -- which would make it one of the few states to grow
         in the coming year. Even if Brazil's economy does shrink this year,
         it will be slight. And following the recession, Brazil may well be
         one of the countries best positioned to come out of the crisis
         stronger than it went into it.

         --
         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com

     --
     Karen Hooper
     Latin America Analyst
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com
","2009-06-04 17:09:50",1,"2012-08-02 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1393779_re-analysis-for-comment-brazil-s-recession-.html","robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com,hooper@stratfor.com","attach/118/118818_Brazil vs. Russia.pdf"
1409763,"Re: Follow Up from teleconference last week
","   Steve,
   I am in Kentucky threw Wednesday and in back to back meetings Thursday, so
   Friday is the first time I can meet.  In the meantime, I know Rob and
   Holly have worked on many of those tasks so hopefully we will have
   everything at least identified regarding assignment by Friday.
   -Don
   Don R. Kuykendall 
   President & Chief Financial Officer 
   STRATFOR 
   512.744.4314 phone 
   512.744.4334 fax 
   kuykendall@stratfor.com 
     
   _______________________ 
     
   http://www.stratfor.com 
   STRATFOR 
   221 W. 6th Street 
   Suite 400 
   Austin, Texas 78701 
   From: Stephen Feldhaus <sf@feldhauslaw.com>
   Date: Fri, 17 Jun 2011 12:03:00 -0400
   To: Holly Sparkman <hsparkman@roriesparkman.com>
   Cc: Don Kuykendall <kuykendall@stratfor.com>, Rob Bassetti
   <rob.bassetti@stratfor.com>, 'Dan Rorie' <drorie@roriesparkman.com>
   Subject: RE: Follow Up from teleconference last week

   Don,

    

   Here is the flow chart and the closing checklist.

    

   My best days next week are Tuesday after 9 Texas time and Wednesday before
   11 Texas time.

    

   I am also attaching the information that I sent to Rob and Don on April 29
   regarding the information we need to gather to be able to list all the
   contracts that we are going to assign to the new operating LLC.  We also
   need this list in order to be able to review the contracts to determine
   whether we need to obtain the approval of any of our customers/etc., for
   the assignment of their contracts.  For example, I would bet that OSIS
   requires that it approve any assignment of its contract.

    

   Rob and Don, I don't know what work has been done on this list,  but we
   need to get on top of it ASAP.  Please let me know when you have something
   that you are ready to share.  Can we schedule a call at the end of next
   week on this, say Thursday afternoon at 3 Texas time?  Holly and Dan don't
   need to be on this call.

    

   Best,

    

   Steve

    

    

    

    

                              CIRCULAR 230 NOTICE

   In accordance with Treasury Regulations, please note that any tax advice
   given herein (and in any attachments) is not intended or written to be
   used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of (i) avoiding
   tax penalties or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another
   party any transaction or matter addressed herein.

    

                             

   This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential information
   belonging to the sender which is legally privileged. The information is
   intended only for the use of the individual or entity named above. If you
   are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or the taking of any action regarding
   the contents of this e-mailed information is strictly prohibited. If you
   have received this transmission in error, please immediately notify us by
   return e-mail, then delete the original message.

    

   From: Holly Sparkman [mailto:hsparkman@roriesparkman.com]
   Sent: Friday, June 10, 2011 1:39 PM
   To: Feldhaus, Stephen
   Cc: 'Don Kuykendall'; 'Rob Bassetti'; 'Dan Rorie'
   Subject: RE: Follow Up from teleconference last week

    

   If the entity is wholly owned by Stratfor, it will get pulled into GAAP
   and IRS audits which is what we are trying to avoid.  Let's discuss
   further when we speak next.  Using Philmont may be an option.

    

   Agreed on the bigger concern.

    

   Holly Sparkman

   Rorie Sparkman & Associates LLC

   512-600-3212 t

   512-350-4736 m

   www.roriesparkman.com

    

   The information contained in this e-mail is confidential and may contain
   privileged, proprietary, or otherwise private information.  If received in
   error, please destroy and notify sender.  Sender does not waive
   confidentiality or privilege, and use is prohibited.

    

    

   From: Feldhaus, Stephen [mailto:sf@feldhauslaw.com]
   Sent: Friday, June 10, 2011 12:35 PM
   To: Holly Sparkman
   Cc: 'Don Kuykendall'; 'Rob Bassetti'; 'Dan Rorie'
   Subject: RE: Follow Up from teleconference last week

    

   Holly,

    

   More on the other items later, as I am tied up until after 3:30 or so
   today, and then only free until 4:00, but I wanted to reply about NEWCO. 
   My strong advice would be to try to form a disregarded entity wholly owned
   by Stratfor to make the payments.  We are doing that now with Philmont in
   the Bahamas for overseas payments.  We could even use Philmont for that
   matter.

    

   A bigger concern is to ensure that the recipients are in fact independent
   contractors and not employees, and also that we have a mechanism to ensure
   that we can show that these are not prohibited payments, for example,
   prohibited by the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

    

   Best,

    

   Steve

    

    

    

    

                              CIRCULAR 230 NOTICE

   In accordance with Treasury Regulations, please note that any tax advice
   given herein (and in any attachments) is not intended or written to be
   used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of (i) avoiding
   tax penalties or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another
   party any transaction or matter addressed herein.

    

                             

   This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential information
   belonging to the sender which is legally privileged. The information is
   intended only for the use of the individual or entity named above. If you
   are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or the taking of any action regarding
   the contents of this e-mailed information is strictly prohibited. If you
   have received this transmission in error, please immediately notify us by
   return e-mail, then delete the original message.

    

   From: Holly Sparkman [mailto:hsparkman@roriesparkman.com]
   Sent: Friday, June 10, 2011 12:34 PM
   To: Feldhaus, Stephen
   Cc: 'Don Kuykendall'; 'Rob Bassetti'; 'Dan Rorie'
   Subject: RE: Follow Up from teleconference last week

    

   Dear Steve:

    

   I thought I sent this email on Tuesday, but I'm not sure I ever hit the
   send button.

    

   Have you had the opportunity get on Robert Philpott's schedule for next
   week for a conference call with Dan Rorie to follow up on tax
   structure/issues (item 5 below)?  I think we discussed June 15, 16 or
   17th.  Dan and I are scheduled to meet Monday to prepare an agenda list.

    

   Also, please see attached write up per item 9 below for your review.  I
   believe Don and Rob have spoken to Meredith who is supportive of the
   concept. Realistically, the Newco could be owned by anyone (Don or George)
   who is a minority shareholder of the Inc or LLC to avoid common ownership
   for purposes of GAAP audit.  Dan mentioned, too that there was a Nevada
   corporation that was set up years ago for this purpose (Universal
   Analytics), however, by search on the Nevada Secretary of State site, that
   corporation has been dissolved.  Once the approved, we are happy to do the
   legwork internally since I know you have a lot on your plate right now.

    

   Please let us know if you have any questions or need assistance with
   meeting any of the proposed due dates below.

    

   Sincerely,

   Holly

    

   Holly Sparkman

   512-350-4736

    

   From: Holly Sparkman [mailto:hsparkman@roriesparkman.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, June 01, 2011 2:33 PM
   To: 'Stephen Feldhaus'
   Cc: 'Don Kuykendall'; 'Rob Bassetti'; 'Dan Rorie'
   Subject: Follow Up from teleconference last week

    

   Dear Steve:

    

   Below is a list of notes from last Thursday's conference call regarding
   more immediate pending items.    I took the liberty of suggesting internal
   \"due date\" for tasks below.  Please let me know if you have any questions,
   require further information, or wish to suggest a different due date.

    

   1)    Steve (June 10) to request copy of Certificate of Formation and IRS
   SS-4/EIN for new Delaware LLC, provide copy to Holly/Rob

   2)      Steve (June 10)  to provide flow chart view of new proposed entity
   structure

   3)      Steve (June 10) to provide closing task list for Aug 1, 12am close

   4)      Steve (June 10) to review missing data per shareholder spreadsheet
   provided and discussed last week (and attached for your convenience), upon
   Steve's review and updates, Rob to follow up on missing data

   a.       Missing Restricted Stock Agreements: 

                                                                  i.     
   Grant Perry

                                                                ii.      Jay
   Young

   b.      Series A documentation discrepancies

                                                                  i.     
   Fred (ck/cert)

                                                                ii.      Bart
   Mongoven (agreement/cert)

                                                               iii.     
   Van/Feldhaus (dates)

   c.       83(b) elections missing copies for 5 people

   d.      Series B documentation: various

   e.      Preferred Stock, do not have copies of certificates being issued

   5)      Steve (June 3) to schedule conference call with Robert Philpott
   for week of June 13th with Dan Rorie, Don, Rob and Holly to discuss tax
   considerations for all legal entities (related to recording transaction as
   well as go forward profit allocations, etc)  Dan/Holly to prepare list of
   topics for discussion by June 10th.

   6)      Holly (June 10)  to consult with Maxwell Locke & Ritter regarding
   GAAP issues for transaction recording and go-forward audit considerations

   7)      Holly/Rob (June 10) to provide outline of state jurisdiction
   issues including employees by state with broad job description and
   coordinate with Feldhaus/Philpott for new LLC registration/recommendations
   for appropriate states

   8)      Rob (June 10)  to clean up old State of Texas registrations

   9)      Holly (June 3) to provide write up for proposed new legal entity
   to handle anonymous source payment

   10)   Holly to update shareholder list to include following (done--see
   attached)

   a.       Correction for rounding error

   b.      Removal of restricted stock distinction

   c.       Change 75% voting list to 2/3 vote list

   11)   Rob/Holly (June 17) to review files for copies of old p/s tax
   returns and work with Don to restructure current tax basis for major
   shareholders (Don, George, Feldhaus, etc), note, Holly reviewed
   preliminarily with Dan Rorie, we have expectation that there was zero tax
   basis at time of 2003 LLC treated as partnership for Federal tax was
   merged/converted to C Corp.  To extent more money was put into C Corp in
   the form of equity, may be tax basis.

         12)  Rob (June 17) to handle opening new operating account with TCB
   for new legal entity once item (1) above is received, need account open
   and ready to receive funds prior to closing.

         13)  Holly/Rob (June 30) to ready new Quickbooks online account for
   new LLC for operations prior to closing.

          14)  Rob/Holly/Fernando (June 17) to provide master contracts
   schedule identifying any contract assignment issues for discussion the
   week of June 13.

    

   Thanks,

   Holly

    

   Holly Sparkman

   Rorie Sparkman & Associates LLC

   1250 S. Capital of Texas Hwy

   Bldg 1, Suite 300

   Austin, TX  78746

   512-600-3212 t

   512-327-3411 f

   512-350-4736 m

   www.roriesparkman.com

    

   The information contained in this e-mail is confidential and may contain
   privileged, proprietary, or otherwise private information.  If received in
   error, please destroy and notify sender.  Sender does not waive
   confidentiality or privilege, and use is prohibited.

    

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   No virus found in this message.
   Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
   Version: 10.0.1375 / Virus Database: 1511/3673 - Release Date: 06/01/11
","2011-06-17 21:16:18",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1409763_re-follow-up-from-teleconference-last-week-.html","kuykendall@stratfor.com","","sf@feldhauslaw.com,rob.bassetti@stratfor.com,hsparkman@roriesparkman.com,drorie@roriesparkman.com",""
1413539,"Re: Invoice for Stratcap
","","2011-09-18 21:12:34",1,"2012-03-01 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1413539_re-invoice-for-stratcap-.html","holly.sparkman@stratfor.com","","kuykendall@stratfor.com,rob.bassetti@stratfor.com","attach/120/120562_2011 09 15 Fin.pdf"
1413548,"ME1 pay increase
","Just received word from Meredith to increase pay for ME1 to $6000 per 
month, half coded to current department, half coded to 570 (Stratcap).

-- 
Rob Bassetti
STRATFOR
Finance Department
512-744-4081
bassetti@stratfor.com
","2011-10-17 18:22:42",1,"2012-03-01 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1413548_me1-pay-increase-.html","bassetti@stratfor.com","","payroll@stratfor.com",""
1413968,"Departmental Reports
","","2011-10-20 22:08:39",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1413968_departmental-reports-.html","bassetti@stratfor.com","","kuykendall@stratfor.com,holly.sparkman@stratfor.com,fernando.jaimes@stratfor.com","attach/120/120577_511-Finance_HR, September 2011.pdf
attach/120/120579_514-IT, 9_2011.pdf
attach/120/120580_534-Customer Service, 9_2011.pdf
attach/120/120581_563-ADP, 9_2011.pdf
attach/120/120582_562-Strategic Intelligence, 9_2011.pdf
attach/120/120583_567-Multimedia, 9_2011.pdf
attach/120/120584_561-Op Center, 9_2011.pdf
attach/120/120585_564-Tactical Intelligence, 9_2011.pdf
attach/120/120586_566-Graphics, 9_2011.pdf
attach/120/120587_512-Austin Facilities, 9_2011.pdf
attach/120/120589_513-DC Facilities, 9_2011.pdf
attach/120/120590_533-Individual Sales, 9_2011.pdf
attach/120/120591_568-OSINT, 9_2011.pdf
attach/120/120592_531-Executive, 9_2011.pdf
attach/120/120593_535-Institutional Sales, 9_2011.pdf
attach/120/120595_841-International, 9_2011.pdf
attach/120/120596_565-Editors, 9_2011.pdf
attach/120/120636_000-All Departments Summary Sheet1.pdf"
1413997,"COMPLETED TASK: Swedish EU Agenda
","   Attached is the sweep document, the working programme from the office of
   the pm, and a guide to the swedish presidency from a business consultancy.

 Robert Reinfrank
 STRATFOR Intern
 Austin, Texas
 P: + 1-310-614-1156
 robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 Date:  June 23, 2009
 Analyst:  Marko Papic
 RESEARCHER: Robert (he is expecting it)
 PRIORITY: 1

 \"I need a really thorough sweep of articles about the upcoming Swedish EU Presidency. Please also check the Presidency website and try to see if there is any sense of what the agenda may be... Although that may not be as easy as it sounds.\"




   Marko Papic wrote:

     RESEARCHER: Robert (he is expecting it)
     PRIORITY: 1

     I need a really thorough sweep of articles about the upcoming Swedish EU
     Presidency. Please also check the Presidency website and try to see if
     there is any sense of what the agenda may be... Although that may not be
     as easy as it sounds.
","2009-06-23 17:21:28",1,"2012-02-29 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1413997_completed-task-swedish-eu-agenda-.html","robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com","","marko.papic@stratfor.com,interns@stratfor.com,research@stratfor.com","attach/120/120643_The Swedish EU Presidency.doc
attach/120/120644_Swedish Presidency Business Guide.pdf
attach/120/120645_Working Programme.pdf"
1414158,"Re: ME1 pay increase
","   Does Don get these emails?  He should.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Rob Bassetti\" <bassetti@stratfor.com>
   To: \"payroll\" <payroll@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, October 17, 2011 11:22:42 AM
   Subject: ME1 pay increase

   Just received word from Meredith to increase pay for ME1 to $6000 per
   month, half coded to current department, half coded to 570 (Stratcap).

   --
   Rob Bassetti
   STRATFOR
   Finance Department
   512-744-4081
   bassetti@stratfor.com
","2011-10-17 21:22:41",1,"2012-02-27 02:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1414158_re-me1-pay-increase-.html","holly.sparkman@stratfor.com","","bassetti@stratfor.com",""
1425322,"Fwd: Fwd: Faruk
","   Did this transaction to Mehmet Faruk Demir go through? Is it set up to go
   through regularly each month now? Just want to make sure I don't drop the
   ball on anything here.

   Thanks,
   Meredith

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Fwd: Faruk                                                        
      Date: Thu, 12 May 2011 16:54:22 -0500                                   
      From: Meredith Friedman <mfriedman@stratfor.com>                        
        To: 'Rob Bassetti' <rob.bassetti@stratfor.com>, 'Meredith Friedman'   
            <meredith@stratfor.com>                                           

   Rob - I will tell you about this new international payment but here are
   the details of the bank account. I'm not sure if you have everything you
   need for an international wire transfer here but if you do not please let
   me know. Thanks.

   The amount is 20k per year divided into equal monthly amounts.


   Hey George, Faruk says monthly payment is fine. Below is his bank account
   (US Dollar) information. I'm in touch with him as far as information
   gathering is concerned. Please let me know if you need anything else on
   this.
   Mehmet Faruk Demir
   GARANTI BANKASI
   Bank Account Nr: 1145/9099546
   IBAN  TR79 0006 2001 1450 0009 0995 46
   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-05-20 16:13:31",1,"2012-03-06 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1425322_fwd-fwd-faruk-.html","mfriedman@stratfor.com","","rob.bassetti@stratfor.com,meredith@stratfor.com",""
1427935,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA - them's fightin' words
","   I have been saying that Turkey is looking at a Syria beyond al-Assad but I
   doubt that it is moving this fast.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Michael Wilson <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Wed, 15 Jun 2011 16:36:59 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA - them's fightin' words
   wait, what is an NDZ?

   On 6/15/11 2:19 PM, Reginald Thompson wrote:

     PUBLICATION: background/analysis
     ATTRIBUTION: Turkish diplomatic source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION:
     Turkish diplomat in Lebanon
     Reliability : C
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 4-- we need to check on the claim that turkey will
     actually move forward with setting up a NDZ
     DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

     yesterday's phone call between Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip
     Erdogan and Syrian president Bashar Asad ended in failure. The call was
     made by Erdogan but Asad was quick to congratulate him on his party's
     third consecutive victory in parliamentary elections. Erdogan was very
     blunt. He told Asad that he did not call him to be congratulated,
     especially since Asad did not take the initiative to call. Erdogan told
     Asad he wanted to get to the point with regard to reforms. Asad said he
     is keen on reform once the army eliminates the salafis. Erdogan
     retorted: \"Do not give me excuses. You know there are no salafis.\"
     Erdogan told Asad that even if there were salafis, there was no reason
     why the authorities would punish the entire Syrian people.
     Angry Erdogan told Asad that he did not want to hear words from him any
     more. He told him the time has come for actions. Erdogan demanded a
     timetable for bringing about the reforms. He got upset when Asad said
     :\"Inshallah soon we will have a timetable.\" Erdogan came out with the
     impression that Asad was still bluffing him. Asad did not give any
     indication that his troops will terminate their military campaign. 
     Erdogan will now support any UN resolution and will go ahead with any
     requests for establishing a safe have along the border with Syria.
     Turkish assessments indicate that it will take eight months to oust Asad
     from the presidency

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
","2011-06-15 23:41:19",1,"2012-03-15 20:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1427935_re-alpha-insight-turkey-syria-them-s-fightin-words-.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1429763,"Client working list
","","2011-04-23 06:54:15",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1429763_client-working-list-.html","","","sf@feldhauslaw.com,Don.kuykendall@stratfor.com","attach/5/5728_image001.png
attach/37/37035_client list.xls"
1429826,"categories for clients
","","2010-11-27 17:52:32",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1429826_categories-for-clients-.html","","","kuykendall@stratfor.com,darryl.oconnor@stratfor.com,holly.sparkman@stratfor.com","attach/5/5728_image001.png
attach/122/122407_Client list.xls"
1431520,"Fwd: Jen Richmond's Source
","42","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-29 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1431520_fwd-jen-richmond-s-source-.html","rob.bassetti@stratfor.com","","meredith.friedman@stratfor.com,ar@stratfor.com","attach/122/122530_Bill or Credit - STRATFOR - QuickBooks Online Plus.pdf"
1443616,"RE: System for coordinating in Turkey
","   Understand and agree. Obviously, this doesn't apply to non-STRATFOR
   communications as I have personal relations with many of the people there.
    

    

   From: Emre Dogru [mailto:emre.dogru@stratfor.com]
   Sent: June-17-10 11:12 AM
   To: Meredith Friedman
   Cc: 'Reva Bhalla'; 'Kamran Bokhari'; gfriedman@stratfor.com; 'scott
   stewart'
   Subject: Re: System for coordinating in Turkey

    

   Absolutely.

   Meredith Friedman wrote:

   Yes it applies in the sense that we also need to make sure we're
   coordinating on the questions and our analysis of something. So you should
   let us know when you are going to contact a source and what about in case
   George or Reva or Kamran have an additional comment or question for that
   source. So it's not just about sources but about issues and our take on
   things. Does that make sense?

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Emre Dogru [mailto:emre.dogru@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, June 17, 2010 10:04 AM
   To: Reva Bhalla
   Cc: Meredith Friedman; 'Kamran Bokhari'; gfriedman@stratfor.com; 'scott
   stewart'
   Subject: Re: System for coordinating in Turkey

   Understood. I don't think that this applies to the discussions with the
   sources only I know (some of which speak only Turkish) because there is no
   way of overlapping, right?

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

   Sounds good. Agree on the need for coordination since a lot of our
   contacts overlap.  I briefed George this morning on a source I'll be
   having dinner with tonight, Cengiz Candar, who is visiting from Turkey and
   who Emre also knows.  Will send out a report after the meeting

    

    

   On Jun 17, 2010, at 9:55 AM, Meredith Friedman wrote:

   We need to work hard to coordinate our work in Turkey going forward since
   we have all had contact at varying times with some of the same people, in
   the same ministries and think tanks and banks etc. While the level of our
   contacts in some cases was different (e.g. George and I met with the
   Turkish FM and with CEO of IsBank, while Reva and Kamran have met with
   advisors to the FM/president and managers or directors at IsBank) we also
   have met with some of the same people (Ibrahim Kalin for example). 
   Sometimes it may be best for Emre to contact the source directly as he can
   pick up the phone, speaks the language and is on the same time zone.

   Here is how we'll make sure we don't overlap, double up, confuse or
   contradict each other and our sources going forward.

   1. Before contacting any of our sources in Turkey (or Turkish sources here
   in USA) each of you will email this list with your intended question and
   unless it's a true emergency situation, wait to get any additional
   questions or comments from this group before proceeding with your
   contact. If a discussion is needed quickly set up a quick phone call to
   clarify the issue or question to be asked with members of this group
   before contacting the source. 

   2. When you get a response from the source you will email that response to
   this group as well so you all see the response to the question asked. If
   it's information to be put out quickly as INSIGHT then use the normal
   method of getting it out through the Watch Officers. The first word after
   INSIGHT in the subject line should always be the country so that we can
   see easily what is from Turkey.

   We can refine this as we go along but it's really important now to synch
   our contacts with these sources and for you to know what George may have
   said in a meeting while we were in the country.

   I am setting up a separate system for asking and taking questions from our
   confederation partners - Hurriyet and Sabah - and will send that our
   separately. 

   Stick let us know if you have any comments on this?

    

   Meredith

    

    

 --

 Emre Dogru

  

 STRATFOR

 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514

 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468

 emre.dogru@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

 --

 Emre Dogru

  

 STRATFOR

 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514

 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468

 emre.dogru@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com
","2010-06-17 17:23:00",1,"2012-03-09 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1443616_re-system-for-coordinating-in-turkey-.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","","mfriedman@stratfor.com,gfriedman@stratfor.com,reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,emre.dogru@stratfor.com",""
1446311,"[Fwd: Re: GUIDANCE - Questions on PKK]
","   Reva and Scott, thank you for this great guidance. It's really helpful to
   think about these questions and I think we will have very detailed
   information on PKK (probably that no one else has) if we can answer even
   one third of the questions below. However, I've no idea how I can even
   start getting answers on this. Such a guidance requires an extensive
   research and preparation period, plus travels to (Diyarbakir, Sirnak,
   Ankara etc) to try to reach out to people who may be willing to share
   information with us. I don't know what Yerevan thinks but as such, I would
   say this guidance cannot be fulfilled by only calling people I know. (To
   put this into perspective, my main journalist source, Cengiz Candar,
   prepared an extensive PKK report - which was released two weeks ago - in
   six months with the financial backing of the biggest think-tank in Turkey.
   And there are still unanswered questions).

   I honestly do not believe that we will have a clear answer to the main
   question that we ask \"What's the level of Ocalan's authority\" at the end
   of this process. Recall that we tried to learn exactly the same thing few
   months ago (political conditions were similar - on which I can talk about
   more in detail) and found out that this is not a question that we can
   answer with certainty. Because such a thing would be our own
   political/social assessment that we can come up with after answering your
   questions below. (Assuming that we can).

   So, if you really think we need to engage in this effort, I believe this
   is a decision that you guys need to take at the company because there will
   be costs of time, money, people etc. Please let me (and Yerevan) know.
   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: Re: GUIDANCE - Questions on PKK      
       Date: Fri, 05 Aug 2011 12:53:13 -0400      
       From: scott stewart <stewart@stratfor.com> 
   Reply-To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com> 
         To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com> 

   I guess the other thing I would add is that we don't want to just focus on
   high-level contacts. Sometimes mid-level guys can help us get a far
   clearer view of the dynamic within the group than upper level guys who are
   insulated from the guys in the trenches.
   In this case, it would be very important to understand how the rank and
   file PKK members really feel about Ocalan and other leaders. That might be
   far different than what the PR spinners are trying to portray and help us
   identify any fractures in the Org. A 
   From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 5 Aug 2011 10:37:22 -0500 (CDT)
   To: <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: GUIDANCE - Questions on PKK
   TFL was having a discussion this morning on the questions we need to
   answer on PKK command and control.A  No issue is too complex for us to
   tackle. There is a process that we need to follow in collecting
   information on this issue. We have both Kurdish and Turkish contacts that
   can help in developing an assessment.A  The following is my guidance on
   how to approach this issue with sources and the types of questions you
   need to be asking yourself and your sources. Tactical team, if you have
   any input on this, would like to hear it.

   Questions we need to answer:

   A 

   What is the current command and control structure of the PKK?A  More
   directly, does Ocalan command as much authority as he used to over the
   movement?

   A 

   To answer this, begin with developing a foundation for the analysis:

   A 

   How would you describe PKKa**s traditional command and control structure?
   (how was the group organized between political and militant wings, what
   was the leadership structure, how are orders disseminated from the
   leadership to the rank and file members?)

   A 

   How did Ocalan maintain authority while in jail?A  Who did he rely on
   principally to carry out his orders?A  Are there examples in the past of
   other PKK leaders competing for his authority?A  How was that dealt with
   in the past?

   A 

   What are the main divisive issues that we see impacting the PKK?A A  Is it
   possible to identify the developing factions within the group? What does
   each faction stand for? Who do they look to for leadership?

   A 

   Is there a noticeable split in the group, for example, on whether PKK
   should negotiate with the government or stick largely to a militant
   campaign?A  Are there serious tensions between PKK and BDP?A  Between PKK
   and KRG?A 

   A 

   When did those splits start arising?A  What is exacerbating such splits?A 
   Examine the geopolitical climate a**A  AKPa**s renewed political mandate
   a** less of a need to cater to a Kurdish vote a** more of a need to reach
   an accommodation with the military; KRG under pressure from Iraq
   withdrawal a** needing to cooperate with both Turkey and Iran;A  Iranian
   offensive on PJAKA  Syrian unrest fueling Kurdish protests, etc.

   A 

   Take a look at the major attacks wea**ve seen recently. Were there any
   noticeable signs of tensions among the PKK leadership over those attacks?
   Contradictory statements?A  (always keep in mind that playing up splits in
   the group can also be a method of gaining plausible deniability in
   negotiations; however, if you go too far and your leadership is not taken
   seriously anymore, you lose clout in negotiations anyway.A  What's the
   reality here?A  Is Ocalan playing a double game or is he really losing his
   grip over the organization? that is the key question)

   A 

   Once you develop some background, then youa**re ready to talk to your
   sources.

   A 

   Before talking to any source, always always always be honest with yourself
   in internalizing the agenda of the source.A  The sources know who you work
   for, so dona**t kid yourself. Your goal is to get them to reveal things
   that they otherwise are not going to put in a press release.

   A 

   PKK sources will be expected to vehemently deny any splits, especially
   when theya**re under a lot of pressure as they are now.

   A 

   Turkish sources will be expected to portray the PKK as weak, fracturing
   and unreliable as negotiating partners.

   A 

   You already know that going into this. So, how do you get the answers you
   want?

   A 

   If youa**re talking to PKK. You start out with sympathizing, not with
   demanding information immediately.. Theya**re under a ton of pressure
   right now. Display your knowledge of the situation, express your
   solidaritywith their cause.A  Act annoyed by all the rumors that are
   circulating a** how KRG is coordinating with Iran against PJAK, how the
   Turks keep saying Ocalan cana**t even speak for the movement anymore.
   Dona**t put yourself in a position where the source is immediately going
   to respond with defiance.A  First take their position, then probe for
   deeper answers.A  Once you get that conversation going, talk about how PKK
   is very unique for maintaining cohesion while its leader has been isolated
   from the group in prison. That in and of itself is a remarkable feat.A 
   But then start talking about how this is difficult to maintain for any
   leader. There are a lot of pressures on the group right now (refer to the
   background above.) Who then and and does Ocalan rely on to carry out
   orders?A  How exactly are those orders delegated? Refer to specific
   attacks recently.A  Are those examples of attacks ordered by Ocalan?A  If
   they sayA  no, then you have an opening to dig deeper into the problem of
   attacks being carried out without the leadera**s discretion. If they say
   yes, then ask specifically how he is able to issue such orders and then
   how is that impacting the negotiations with the govt? bring up the fact
   that the AKP is past the elections now, doesna**t need to care as much
   about the Kurdish vote now and is a lot more worried about reaching an
   understanding with the military. Knowing this, how does PKK intend to
   respond to these pressures? And when we say PKK can we really refer to the
   group asaA  single cohesive unit? Or are there different opinions as to
   what needs to be done?A 

   A 

   Key thing is, you never want to take a stance that causes the source to
   feel threatened or act defensive. You need to identify with the source,
   internalize his agenda, keep your guard up mentally, but physically and
   emotionally show that you understand where hea**s coming from and then
   search for those small hints of tension to pick at in the discussion, all
   while maintaining respect.

   A 

   If youa**re talking to a Turkish source on this issue, you want to seek
   out someone who is very close to this issue a** not someone at the
   official level who is simply reading policy briefs.A  Who understands the
   internal dynamics of PKK on the Turkish side?A  Express your admiration
   and respect for their work, how important it is for Turkey to rely on
   people like him to develop an accurate picture of PKK.A  With all the
   tensions going on between the govt and the military, the one issue all
   turks can really agree on is the need for the military to get better at
   counterinsurgency. To do that, Turkey needs solid, accurate analysis on
   what is happening internally with PKK. Once you give the source the
   impression that you respect his information for those reasons, hea**ll
   feel more obliged to NOT feed you BS. Express your irritation at those
   Turkish officials/analysts/etc. who throw blanket statements on PKK,
   portraying thegroup as weak and totally fractured. Obv thata**s not the
   case or else Turkey wouldna**t be having this problem with the PKK and
   wouldna**ta** be calling for military reforms to improve in
   counterinsurgency.A  Express your Turkish nationalism here, how Turkey
   needs to resolve its Kurdish problem but that the first step toward doing
   that is to get an accurate read of PKKa**s internal structure and
   stresses.A  Talk about how PKK has stood out from most militant groups for
   its cohesion, how Ocalan has been able to maintainauthority for a long
   time despite his isolation. What frustrates Turkey most about negotiations
   with PKK/Ocalan?A  (feed of their replies here.A  If they claim that
   Ocalan cana**t deliver results, then ask, who can?A  And is the govt
   talking to them? )A  ask how they would describe the splits within the PKK
   and what each faction stands for. Who does Turkey believe it can negotiate
   with more effectively?A  At what point did they notice meaningful splits
   emerging in the movement? What do they attribute those splits to?A 

   Is Turkey getting any intel cooperation from the KRG on PKK?

   Now that the elections are over with, what is the developing AKP strategy
   in dealing with PKK? How does the govt intend to use the PKK issue to try
   and settle tensions with the military?A 

   A 

   Youa**ll need to feed off the replies you get in developing further
   questions.A  Same thing as before a** dona**t ever make your source feel
   hostile or stupid.A  After some time, you can express some skepticism and
   politely call BS on what they say, but do so with tact.A  Your goal should
   always be to encourage them to talk, to get them to start venting, talk to
   them in a more relaxed atmosphere if possible. Youa**re not conducting an
   interview for a newspaper article and youa**re not quoting them in the
   paper. What you need to make clear to them is that your agenda is simple
   a** to learn whata**s really happening here, and using their expertise to
   develop a deeper understanding of this issue.

   A 

   When you collect the information, then we can examine this in-house and
   check for bias and see where we can develop an analytical framework for
   the current situation.A  I want your insight emails to read more like
   lengthy conversations, not news clippings. A Youa**re not calling and
   demanding quick answers. Youa**re engaging someone in a conversation and
   need to do the necessary preparation before talking to them so you make
   them feel comfortable in sharing information with you.

   A 

   This is a start. We can expand on this and I can answer more questions.
   But this is how I would tackle this issue.

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-08-08 15:08:30",1,"2012-03-09 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1446311_-fwd-re-guidance-questions-on-pkk-.html","emre.dogru@stratfor.com","","bhalla@stratfor.com,bokhari@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,yerevan.saeed@stratfor.com",""
1457112,"Re: Dealing with the Turks
","   ok, let us know how you want to use the lever of our charging them with
   falsifying what we said. is that something you prefer to handle directly?
   On Sep 1, 2010, at 10:45 AM, George Friedman wrote:

     Ok. There are others we can approach for this. But I want to smooth the
     relation with zaman and use the lever of our charging them with
     falsifying what we said. I want to explore a counter at the heart of our
     critics.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Reva Bhalla <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
     Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 10:43:19 -0500 (CDT)
     To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
     Cc: Emre Dogru<emre.dogru@stratfor.com>; Kamran
     Bokhari<bokhari@stratfor.com>; Reva Bhalla<bhalla@stratfor.com>; George
     Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>; Meredith
     Friedman<mfriedman@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
     Bulent Kenes is in charge of Today's Zaman - English language. Ali Aslan
     is in charge of Zaman - Turkish language.  Both are Zaman.
     On Sep 1, 2010, at 10:42 AM, George Friedman wrote:

       Hold on. Who is ali and who is bulent. So far I only authorized
       contact with zaman.

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Reva Bhalla <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
       Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 10:40:15 -0500
       To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
       Cc: Emre Dogru<emre.dogru@stratfor.com>; Kamran
       Bokhari<bokhari@stratfor.com>; Reva Bhalla<bhalla@stratfor.com>;
       George Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>; Meredith
       Friedman<mfriedman@stratfor.com>
       Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
       that's good. will add that to the email response.
       if Bulent is saying no, Ali will probably say no as well. im still
       waiting for his response.
       Emre, Ali wanted to know which of his contacts we met with in Turkey,
       so it doesn't surprise me that he and Bulent are coordinating and
       exchanging emails on this.  Ali was also trying to get us to issue a
       retraction.
       On Sep 1, 2010, at 10:37 AM, George Friedman wrote:

         Further thoughts.

         Turkey has no better or influential friend than stratfor in the
         united states. We are not seeking a breach with the movement but
         will defend ourselves. We can do it in a dialog form if he wishes.

         I would say something like that.

         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
         Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 15:34:55 +0000
         To: Emre Dogru<emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
         ReplyTo: friedman@att.blackberry.net
         Cc: Reva Bhalla<reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>; Kamran
         Bokhari<bokhari@stratfor.com>; Reva Bhalla<bhalla@stratfor.com>;
         George Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>; Meredith
         Friedman<mfriedman@stratfor.com>
         Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
         Remember that we have credibility in turkey. Would it help if I
         spoke to him?

         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Emre Dogru <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
         Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 10:31:54 -0500 (CDT)
         To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
         Cc: Reva Bhalla<reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>; Kamran
         Bokhari<bokhari@stratfor.com>; Reva Bhalla<bhalla@stratfor.com>;
         George Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>; Meredith
         Friedman<mfriedman@stratfor.com>
         Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
         I was on the phone with Bulent Kenes, editor-in-chief of Today's
         Zaman, for quite a while. I explained him the situation and your
         purpose. Briefly, he said they will not publish a letter or article
         that you would write. He suggests us to write another article and
         correct mistakes that we did, send it to all our clients and \"all
         concerned\". They will greatly cite that in their newspaper if we do
         this. He says he frankly thinks that they deserve an apology due to
         the \"negative taste\" of the report. None of the things that they
         told us in our meeting was included in the report.

         Between the lines, I told him that we never defined Gulen movement
         as fundamental violent organization. He said it was Abdulhamit's
         piece and not his.

         He was pretty nice and talkative, just tried to convince me. My
         personal opinion is that trying to reach out to them shows our
         willingness to maintain dialogue and we're fine like this. Btw Reva,
         Ali Aslan told (or forwarded) the things that you wrote him to
         Bulent and Abdulhamit. Especially the parts that you got information
         from them during our meeting.

         George Friedman wrote:

           Yes. I want to at least have it on record that we tried to have
           dialogue. Use my name and no one elses. I want to write a piece.
           Make it clear I am not angry. Just misunderstood.

           Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Emre Dogru <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
           Date: Wed, 01 Sep 2010 17:48:27 +0300
           To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
           Cc: Reva Bhalla<reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>; Kamran
           Bokhari<bokhari@stratfor.com>; Reva Bhalla<bhalla@stratfor.com>;
           George Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>; Meredith
           Friedman<mfriedman@stratfor.com>
           Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
           Sabah would not want to take side by us against Zaman. They would
           prefer not to get involved in this. They are close to the
           government and government is close to Gulen movement. They don't
           want media quarrel.

           Btw, not sure if I included in the quick translation but
           Abdulhamit says we said Sabah was an Islamist newspaper.

           I can contact zaman or even Abdulhamit if you'd like.

           George Friedman wrote:

             We don't want a neutral forum. We would like the most rabid
             gulenist forum. If they will give it to us. Emre, how do you
             feel about contacting zaman and saying I would like to explain
             stratfor's position there.

             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: Reva Bhalla <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
             Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 09:43:18 -0500
             To: Emre Dogru<emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
             Cc: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>; Kamran
             Bokhari<bokhari@stratfor.com>; Reva Bhalla<bhalla@stratfor.com>;
             George Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>; Meredith
             Friedman<mfriedman@stratfor.com>
             Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
             wouldn't Sabah be a more neutral forum?
             On Sep 1, 2010, at 9:41 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

               I don't know if they would publish one in the Turkish Zaman.
               Today's Zaman is more liberal than the Turkish one, it could
               publish your letter. But I think it would be good idea to ask
               them before you write it.

               You are right, Hurriyet is not a good idea. We can easily
               become a tool in their fight.

               George Friedman wrote:

                 Emre, would they publish one? If they did I would want a
                 week for all the nuts to come out. I don't want it in
                 hurriyet.
                 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

                 From: Kamran Bokhari <bokhari@stratfor.com>
                 Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 09:35:28 -0500 (CDT)
                 To: Reva Bhalla<bhalla@stratfor.com>
                 Cc: Emre
                 Dogru<emre.dogru@stratfor.com>; <friedman@att.blackberry.net>;
                 George Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>; Meredith
                 Friedman<mfriedman@stratfor.com>
                 Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
                 I think George should write an op-ed and publish it in
                 Zaman. 

                 On 9/1/2010 10:32 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

                   We never once described Gulen as 'violent' or 'radical' or
                   anything close to that.
                   Would we be able to do a rebuttal in Sabah?  or would that
                   be a bad idea?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

                   From: \"Emre Dogru\" <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
                   To: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
                   Cc: \"Reva
                   Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>, friedman@att.blackberry.net,
                   \"George Friedman\"<gfriedman@stratfor.com>, \"Meredith
                   Friedman\" <mfriedman@stratfor.com>
                   Sent: Wednesday, September 1, 2010 9:29:48 AM
                   Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks

                   Here is what Abdulhamit Bilici says (btw, he was present
                   in the break-room before George gave lecture in Istanbul
                   conference hall, the short, bald guy)

                   Title: Strategic Scratch/defamation

                   An American researcher, Reva Bhalla, came to visit us few
                   weeks ago. Asked many questions about Gulenist schools,
                   referendum etc. We answered her questions and suggested
                   her to meet with opponents as well to see broader picture.
                   When I received the report, I noticed even though we've
                   told that the real struggle is between those who are eager
                   to maintain the statusquo and those who want change, they
                   built the entire report on Islamist - Secularist debate.
                   (He gives here names of Turkish intellectuals from
                   different nationalities and religions and says that if it
                   would be true, these people would be Islamist as well)

                   There are many faults when it comes to its objectivity. It
                   includes \"violent radical Islamist\" to define Gulen
                   movement as extreme opponents use. Report says Gulen
                   supports dialogue between religions abroad, and promotes
                   Islam at home. Isn't it interesting that it doesn't say
                   anything that could be in favor of Gulen in the West. No
                   mention about Gulen's meetings with Pope.

                   The report could mention \"Abant Platform\" (a conference
                   that Gulen movement organizes and gathers many people from
                   a wide specturm) to show that we make different people
                   come together. The report didn't say that Gulen said he
                   hates Bin Laden, (published on Zaman) because it could
                   show Gulen positive?

                   There are many errors; Turkish schools were shut down in
                   n. Iraq, Gulen praised new Turkish intel chief Fidan, a
                   Bank changed its name. Many many lies and allegations
                   without evidence.

                   Stratfor, which drew attention by showing Turkey as a
                   leader country in the future and founded by G Friedman,
                   needs to think what to do with all these lies..

                   Kamran Bokhari wrote:

                     Btw, Hurriyet putting your name on the shorter piece
                     could just be an error or something they just did as per
                     their SOP. A few years ago, the Pakistani daily, The
                     News, published one of our regular analyses with my
                     byline and even slapped a picture of me on it. It's
                     never happened again because whenever I share any of our
                     material with anyone I put the following disclaimer up
                     on top and in bold:

                     Please do not republish without permission. STRATFOR
                     reports in general are the product of a collaborative
                     effort on the part of our analytical group and not the
                     work of a single analyst. Therefore, should you need to
                     quote from this or any of our other analyses that do not
                     carry a byline, please refer to it as *STRATFOR says...*
                     Thank you.
                     On 9/1/2010 9:42 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

                       Bulent Kenes, editor in chief of Today's Zaman also
                       criticized the piece before it was published by
                       Hurriyet. I asked him what facts does he disagree with
                       and how he would portray the current situation. He did
                       not respond, because he simply did not have anything
                       to say against the facts.

                       Reva Bhalla wrote:

                         Falsifying what facts?  Not a single one of these
                         guys has produced any evidence to the contrary. Now
                         they're all hell bent on making us look like an
                         Israeli agent just because we are the only ones who
                         have discussed the Gulen in detail.
                         I'm going to send out a draft email that I've been
                         composing to respond to emails like this so we can
                         all be on the same page and deliver the same, firm
                         response. These guys really think they can dictate
                         everything we write.
                         On Sep 1, 2010, at 8:30 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

                           One of my Turkish contacts in the U.S., a Gulenist
                           sent me the following note this morning:

                           Salam; 

                           It seems that you're not preparing reports on
                           Turkey at Stratfor's anymore. It's unbelievable
                           that the report prepared by Reva Bhalla is
                           published by Stratfor despite you. There is
                           nothing to be gained from falsifying the facts. If
                           Stratfor is an institution like WINEP, this is
                           understandable. You have responsibility toward
                           your clients to portray a picture of a country
                           close to the facts. It seems that Reva Bhalla's
                           report is not prepared by this sense of
                           responsibility. 

                           What is strange is that he doesn't know Reva.
                           Also, he has seen many of our previous reports
                           Turkey but never once complained. I guess he
                           wasn't expecting one on the Gulen movement. 
                           On 9/1/2010 9:22 AM, George Friedman wrote:

                             I'm sorry hurriyet published your name but
                             stratfor publishes what it thinks is correct.
                             There is no flexibility on our part on this.
                             Once we start to bend very far on this, we are
                             finished. I will be having more substantial
                             pressure I'm sure. So be it.
                             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

                             From: Emre Dogru <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
                             Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2010 04:19:44 -0500 (CDT)
                             To: Reva Bhalla<reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
                             Cc: George Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>;
                             Kamran Bokhari<bokhari@stratfor.com>; Meredith
                             Friedman<mfriedman@stratfor.com>
                             Subject: Re: Dealing with the Turks
                             I will add my thoughts here. But before that, I
                             need to inform you that our Hurriyet Daily News
                             partners re-published our article on AKP -
                             Gulenist split
                             (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=turkey-an-emerging-akp-gulenist-split-2010-08-31),
                             by referring my name and role at Stratfor. This
                             could further complicate the things that Reva
                             laid out below. For your information, I always
                             forward our articles on Turkey to our partners
                             and some people that I know. HDN did not inform
                             me that they would re-publish our article and
                             mention my name. Please let me know what we are
                             supposed to do now.

                             Apart from this, Gulenists got over-concerned
                             following our special report given their already
                             tarnishing image in the US. We've been closely
                             following AKP's efforts to reverse this
                             situation. However, we are an American company
                             and we wrote in detail on how Gulen community
                             works and their relationship to the AKP. They
                             don't have anything to say against the facts
                             that we included, because we wrote the truth.
                             But as Reva says, the mere fact that we wrote
                             about them and how they work disturbed them
                             intensely.

                             They won't be happy unless we take their side.
                             So, I don't think that we need to work to make
                             them happy. They are extremely skeptical to us
                             because we are American, and I'm sure they
                             wonder if there is an American plan in the works
                             against Gulen and AKP and if we are a part of
                             it. I think what we need to do is to convince
                             them that there is no such a thing and we write
                             what we know, without taking side by anyone.
                             This could help us to maintain our
                             relationships. Guidance would be much
                             appreciated, especially given HDN re-published
                             our article.

                             Thanks,
                             Emre

                             Reva Bhalla wrote:

                               Just want to keep everyone informed on the
                               feedback we're getting from the Gulenists on
                               the power struggle report since they are
                               becoming a bit of an issue and since G is
                               going to be in Turkey soon. 

                               So far, feedback from the secularists,
                               military and moderate AKP types has been good.
                               The more extreme Gulenists (for example, the
                               editor of Today's Zaman and the US head of
                               Tuskon business group) are not happy with us.
                               It's quite clear that they were lovey dovey
                               with Emre and I in Turkey  because they
                               intended for us to write out their propaganda
                               and describe Gulen solely as a 'peace-loving,
                               democratic and pro-reform human rights
                               organization.'  The Gulenists are also on the
                               defensive right now with the release of a new
                               book in Turkey by a former police chief that
                               details their infiltration into police
                               intelligence.  They are being extremely
                               defensive about any Islamist connotation
                               attached to them, and are flat out denying
                               their infiltration of any of the security
                               agencies. 

                               We had credible sourcing for this report,
                               including a former Gulenist who walked me
                               through the recruitment process. Since this
                               stuff isn't discussed in English language,
                               they are naturally uncomfortable with it being
                               published.  None of the Gulenists who are
                               criticizing the report have presented
                               counter-evidence to anything we've said yet
                               and are sticking mainly to polemic arguments.
                               Notably, the Today's Zaman counterargument
                               that was published was quite tame. 

                               Now, these guys are difficult to deal with,
                               but it's important for them to realize they
                               need us just as it is important for us to keep
                               open a channel with Gulen to keep information
                               coming.  I've been trying to work out some
                               sort of damage control plan to make clear to
                               them that Stratfor is not interested in taking
                               sides in this power struggle, is an
                               influential player in the US-Turkey
                               relationship and how it behooves both sides to
                               continue working with each other.  George, do
                               you have any guidance on how to handle this so
                               we can maintain these relationships?  The
                               Gulenists can get really nasty if you get on
                               their bad side, and i want to avoid that. 

                               Thanks, 
                               R 

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-09-01 17:47:15",1,"2012-03-03 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1457112_re-dealing-with-the-turks-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","","mfriedman@stratfor.com,gfriedman@stratfor.com,bhalla@stratfor.com,bokhari@stratfor.com,friedman@att.blackberry.net,emre.dogru@stratfor.com",""
1458921,"RE: Follow Up from teleconference last week
","   Holly,

    

   I guess I don't understand the IRS and GAAP concerns.  It seems to me that
   we are going to have to account for these expenses in any event, so I
   don't how GAAP is relevant, and I would think that this structure makes us
   more, not less, susceptible to an IRS attack.  Let's discuss early next
   week.

    

   Best,

    

   Steve

    

    

    

                              CIRCULAR 230 NOTICE

   In accordance with Treasury Regulations, please note that any tax advice
   given herein (and in any attachments) is not intended or written to be
   used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of (i) avoiding
   tax penalties or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another
   party any transaction or matter addressed herein.

    

                             

   This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential information
   belonging to the sender which is legally privileged. The information is
   intended only for the use of the individual or entity named above. If you
   are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or the taking of any action regarding
   the contents of this e-mailed information is strictly prohibited. If you
   have received this transmission in error, please immediately notify us by
   return e-mail, then delete the original message.

    

   From: Holly Sparkman [mailto:hsparkman@roriesparkman.com]
   Sent: Friday, June 10, 2011 1:39 PM
   To: Feldhaus, Stephen
   Cc: 'Don Kuykendall'; 'Rob Bassetti'; 'Dan Rorie'
   Subject: RE: Follow Up from teleconference last week

    

   If the entity is wholly owned by Stratfor, it will get pulled into GAAP
   and IRS audits which is what we are trying to avoid.  Let's discuss
   further when we speak next.  Using Philmont may be an option.

    

   Agreed on the bigger concern.

    

   Holly Sparkman

   Rorie Sparkman & Associates LLC

   512-600-3212 t

   512-350-4736 m

   www.roriesparkman.com

    

   The information contained in this e-mail is confidential and may contain
   privileged, proprietary, or otherwise private information.  If received in
   error, please destroy and notify sender.  Sender does not waive
   confidentiality or privilege, and use is prohibited.

    

    

   From: Feldhaus, Stephen [mailto:sf@feldhauslaw.com]
   Sent: Friday, June 10, 2011 12:35 PM
   To: Holly Sparkman
   Cc: 'Don Kuykendall'; 'Rob Bassetti'; 'Dan Rorie'
   Subject: RE: Follow Up from teleconference last week

    

   Holly,

    

   More on the other items later, as I am tied up until after 3:30 or so
   today, and then only free until 4:00, but I wanted to reply about NEWCO. 
   My strong advice would be to try to form a disregarded entity wholly owned
   by Stratfor to make the payments.  We are doing that now with Philmont in
   the Bahamas for overseas payments.  We could even use Philmont for that
   matter.

    

   A bigger concern is to ensure that the recipients are in fact independent
   contractors and not employees, and also that we have a mechanism to ensure
   that we can show that these are not prohibited payments, for example,
   prohibited by the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

    

   Best,

    

   Steve

    

    

    

    

                              CIRCULAR 230 NOTICE

   In accordance with Treasury Regulations, please note that any tax advice
   given herein (and in any attachments) is not intended or written to be
   used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of (i) avoiding
   tax penalties or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another
   party any transaction or matter addressed herein.

    

                             

   This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential information
   belonging to the sender which is legally privileged. The information is
   intended only for the use of the individual or entity named above. If you
   are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any
   disclosure, copying, distribution, or the taking of any action regarding
   the contents of this e-mailed information is strictly prohibited. If you
   have received this transmission in error, please immediately notify us by
   return e-mail, then delete the original message.

    

   From: Holly Sparkman [mailto:hsparkman@roriesparkman.com]
   Sent: Friday, June 10, 2011 12:34 PM
   To: Feldhaus, Stephen
   Cc: 'Don Kuykendall'; 'Rob Bassetti'; 'Dan Rorie'
   Subject: RE: Follow Up from teleconference last week

    

   Dear Steve:

    

   I thought I sent this email on Tuesday, but I'm not sure I ever hit the
   send button.

    

   Have you had the opportunity get on Robert Philpott's schedule for next
   week for a conference call with Dan Rorie to follow up on tax
   structure/issues (item 5 below)?  I think we discussed June 15, 16 or
   17th.  Dan and I are scheduled to meet Monday to prepare an agenda list.

    

   Also, please see attached write up per item 9 below for your review.  I
   believe Don and Rob have spoken to Meredith who is supportive of the
   concept. Realistically, the Newco could be owned by anyone (Don or George)
   who is a minority shareholder of the Inc or LLC to avoid common ownership
   for purposes of GAAP audit.  Dan mentioned, too that there was a Nevada
   corporation that was set up years ago for this purpose (Universal
   Analytics), however, by search on the Nevada Secretary of State site, that
   corporation has been dissolved.  Once the approved, we are happy to do the
   legwork internally since I know you have a lot on your plate right now.

    

   Please let us know if you have any questions or need assistance with
   meeting any of the proposed due dates below.

    

   Sincerely,

   Holly

    

   Holly Sparkman

   512-350-4736

    

   From: Holly Sparkman [mailto:hsparkman@roriesparkman.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, June 01, 2011 2:33 PM
   To: 'Stephen Feldhaus'
   Cc: 'Don Kuykendall'; 'Rob Bassetti'; 'Dan Rorie'
   Subject: Follow Up from teleconference last week

    

   Dear Steve:

    

   Below is a list of notes from last Thursday's conference call regarding
   more immediate pending items.    I took the liberty of suggesting internal
   \"due date\" for tasks below.  Please let me know if you have any questions,
   require further information, or wish to suggest a different due date.

    

   1)    Steve (June 10) to request copy of Certificate of Formation and IRS
   SS-4/EIN for new Delaware LLC, provide copy to Holly/Rob

   2)      Steve (June 10)  to provide flow chart view of new proposed entity
   structure

   3)      Steve (June 10) to provide closing task list for Aug 1, 12am close

   4)      Steve (June 10) to review missing data per shareholder spreadsheet
   provided and discussed last week (and attached for your convenience), upon
   Steve's review and updates, Rob to follow up on missing data

   a.       Missing Restricted Stock Agreements: 

                                                                  i.     
   Grant Perry

                                                                ii.      Jay
   Young

   b.      Series A documentation discrepancies

                                                                  i.     
   Fred (ck/cert)

                                                                ii.      Bart
   Mongoven (agreement/cert)

                                                               iii.     
   Van/Feldhaus (dates)

   c.       83(b) elections missing copies for 5 people

   d.      Series B documentation: various

   e.      Preferred Stock, do not have copies of certificates being issued

   5)      Steve (June 3) to schedule conference call with Robert Philpott
   for week of June 13th with Dan Rorie, Don, Rob and Holly to discuss tax
   considerations for all legal entities (related to recording transaction as
   well as go forward profit allocations, etc)  Dan/Holly to prepare list of
   topics for discussion by June 10th.

   6)      Holly (June 10)  to consult with Maxwell Locke & Ritter regarding
   GAAP issues for transaction recording and go-forward audit considerations

   7)      Holly/Rob (June 10) to provide outline of state jurisdiction
   issues including employees by state with broad job description and
   coordinate with Feldhaus/Philpott for new LLC registration/recommendations
   for appropriate states

   8)      Rob (June 10)  to clean up old State of Texas registrations

   9)      Holly (June 3) to provide write up for proposed new legal entity
   to handle anonymous source payment

   10)   Holly to update shareholder list to include following (done--see
   attached)

   a.       Correction for rounding error

   b.      Removal of restricted stock distinction

   c.       Change 75% voting list to 2/3 vote list

   11)   Rob/Holly (June 17) to review files for copies of old p/s tax
   returns and work with Don to restructure current tax basis for major
   shareholders (Don, George, Feldhaus, etc), note, Holly reviewed
   preliminarily with Dan Rorie, we have expectation that there was zero tax
   basis at time of 2003 LLC treated as partnership for Federal tax was
   merged/converted to C Corp.  To extent more money was put into C Corp in
   the form of equity, may be tax basis.

         12)  Rob (June 17) to handle opening new operating account with TCB
   for new legal entity once item (1) above is received, need account open
   and ready to receive funds prior to closing.

         13)  Holly/Rob (June 30) to ready new Quickbooks online account for
   new LLC for operations prior to closing.

          14)  Rob/Holly/Fernando (June 17) to provide master contracts
   schedule identifying any contract assignment issues for discussion the
   week of June 13.

    

   Thanks,

   Holly

    

   Holly Sparkman

   Rorie Sparkman & Associates LLC

   1250 S. Capital of Texas Hwy

   Bldg 1, Suite 300

   Austin, TX  78746

   512-600-3212 t

   512-327-3411 f

   512-350-4736 m

   www.roriesparkman.com

    

   The information contained in this e-mail is confidential and may contain
   privileged, proprietary, or otherwise private information.  If received in
   error, please destroy and notify sender.  Sender does not waive
   confidentiality or privilege, and use is prohibited.

    

    

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   Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
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","2011-06-10 19:41:29",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1458921_re-follow-up-from-teleconference-last-week-.html","sf@feldhauslaw.com","","kuykendall@stratfor.com,rob.bassetti@stratfor.com,hsparkman@roriesparkman.com,drorie@roriesparkman.com",""
1459746,"Fwd: New action item list
","   Hi Rob,

    

   Please keep on top of your deadlines below and let me know how I can
   help.  I'll plan for thorough review if needed when I return from
   vacation.

    

   Thanks,

   Holly

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Holly Sparkman\" <holly.sparkman@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Stephen Feldhaus\" <sf@feldhauslaw.com>, \"Don Kuykendall\"
   <kuykendall@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Rob Bassetti\" <rob.bassetti@stratfor.com>, \"Dan Rorie\"
   <drorie@roriesparkman.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, July 5, 2011 9:31:20 AM
   Subject: Re: New action item list

   correction to the correction (sorry), I misunderstood.  It is recommended
   to escrow a total of $300k for prior tax obligations.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Holly Sparkman\" <holly.sparkman@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Stephen Feldhaus\" <sf@feldhauslaw.com>, \"Don Kuykendall\"
   <kuykendall@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Rob Bassetti\" <rob.bassetti@stratfor.com>, \"Dan Rorie\"
   <drorie@roriesparkman.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, July 5, 2011 9:29:07 AM
   Subject: Re: New action item list

   correction to 1. below, per Dan and Don's discussions last week,
   recommended $150k tax escrow.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Holly Sparkman\" <holly.sparkman@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Stephen Feldhaus\" <sf@feldhauslaw.com>, \"Don Kuykendall\"
   <kuykendall@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Rob Bassetti\" <rob.bassetti@stratfor.com>, \"Dan Rorie\"
   <drorie@roriesparkman.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, July 5, 2011 9:02:22 AM
   Subject: New action item list

   Good morning, Gentlemen:
    
   Below is an attempt at outlining the remaining action items for completion
   prior to deal close on July 31.  Please let me know if there is anything
   I've missed.  Rob and I are devoted to month-end close this week, so
   we've pushed deadlines to next week on other items we are responsible for.
    
   Holly
    
   Holly Sparkman
   512-350-4736
     
   NEW LIST:
    
   1.  Steve:  (July 8) Tax estimate resolution:  Currently estimating approx
   $127k to be escrowed for the payment of taxes.  I will recommend an
   additional 10% contigenency and recommend $140k be escrowed. 
   2.  Steve:  (July 8) 382 analysis feedback from Bobby.
   3. Steve:  (July 15) Pending approval for pursuing SS4/tax ID for Stratfor
   Enterprises LLC in order to open bank account and set up
   payroll/benefits/insurance contracts prior to deal close.  Received
   certificiate of formation for Stratfor Enterprises LLC and SM Stratfor
   Partners LLC. 
   4.  Steve:  (July 15) will need Cert of Formation for Newco #2 (to be
   distributed to Stratfor s/h) and Newco #3 (to hold interest in Stratcap)
   along with SS4/tax id #
   5. Rob:  (July 15) key man life insurance - new beneficiary form for
   George's policy
   6.  Rob:  (July 15) completion of files for closing, including client,
   vendor, and employee contracts needing assignment
   7.  Rob:  (July 15) commercial insurance transition as needed (add
   Stratfor Enterprises LLC, Newco #2 and Newco #3 to policies)
   8.  Letecia/Rob:  (July 15) paychex transition plan, health insurance and
   other benefits (401k, COBRA, other) contract transition as needed (add
   Stratfor Enterprises LLC to policies)
   9.  Steve/Rob (July 15) resolution of outstanding capital stock issues for
   Strategic Forecasting Inc.
   10.  Holly:  (July 15) follow up with Maxwell Locke & Ritter on any GAAP
   issues
   11. Steve/Rob (July 15) address multi-state jurisdiction issues
   for franchise, income and sales taxes and registration as needed for
   Stratfor Enterprises LLC
   12.  Holly: (July 31) prepare new online QB for Newco transition
   13.  Steve/Holly:  (July 15) address issues related to anonymous source
   payments
    
   From: Holly Sparkman <holly.sparkman@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 16 Jun 2011 09:10:37 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Stephen Feldhaus <sf@feldhauslaw.com>, Don Kuykendall
   <kuykendall@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Don Kuykendall <kuykendall@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Fwd: Follow Up from teleconference last week

   Hi Steve:

    

   I'm hoping we can speak with Philpott tomorrow while we have him on the
   phone about item 7 below. Will Bobby have an update for us per the list
   Rob sent previously regarding employees in states outside Texas and
   related nexus issues?

    

   Also, perhaps once we finish the tax and state jurisdiction overview with
   Bobby and Dan, we can stay on the line and provide updates on the other
   items listed below.  I've provided updates in red that I'm aware of.

    

   Thank you,

   Holly

    

   Holly Sparkman

   512-350-4736

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Follow Up from teleconference last week                           
      Date: Wed, 1 Jun 2011 14:33:22 -0500                                    
      From: Holly Sparkman <hsparkman@roriesparkman.com>                      
        To: 'Stephen Feldhaus' <sf@feldhauslaw.com>                           
        CC: 'Don Kuykendall' <kuykendall@stratfor.com>, 'Rob Bassetti'        
            <rob.bassetti@stratfor.com>, 'Dan Rorie'                          
            <drorie@roriesparkman.com>                                        

   Dear Steve:

    

   Below is a list of notes from last Thursdaya**s conference call regarding
   more immediate pending items.    I took the liberty of suggesting internal
   a**due datea** for tasks below.  Please let me know if you have any
   questions, require further information, or wish to suggest a different due
   date.

    

   1)    Steve (June 10) to request copy of Certificate of Formation and IRS
   SS-4/EIN for new Delaware LLC, provide copy to Holly/Rob PENDING

   2)      Steve (June 10)  to provide flow chart view of new proposed entity
   structure RECEIVED COPY FROM DON, ON AGENDA FOR TAX DISCUSSION

   3)      Steve (June 10) to provide closing task list for Aug 1, 12am close
   PENDING

   4)      Steve (June 10) to review missing data per shareholder spreadsheet
   provided and discussed last week (and attached for your convenience), upon
   Stevea**s review and updates, Rob to follow up on missing data PENDING

   a.       Missing Restricted Stock Agreements: 

                                                                  i.     
   Grant Perry

                                                                ii.      Jay
   Young

   b.      Series A documentation discrepancies

                                                                  i.     
   Fred (ck/cert)

                                                                ii.      Bart
   Mongoven (agreement/cert)

                                                               iii.     
   Van/Feldhaus (dates)

   c.       83(b) elections missing copies for 5 people

   d.      Series B documentation: various

   e.      Preferred Stock, do not have copies of certificates being issued

   5)      Steve (June 3) to schedule conference call with Robert Philpott
   for week of June 13th with Dan Rorie, Don, Rob and Holly to discuss tax
   considerations for all legal entities (related to recording transaction as
   well as go forward profit allocations, etc)  Dan/Holly to prepare list of
   topics for discussion by June 10th. SCHEDULED, AGENDA TO GO OUT BY 3PM CST
   TODAY

   6)      Holly (June 10)  to consult with Maxwell Locke & Ritter regarding
   GAAP issues for transaction recording and go-forward audit considerations
   DONE, MLR IN PROGRESS OF REVIEW, EXPECT FEEDBACK BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK

   7)      Holly/Rob (June 10) to provide outline of state jurisdiction
   issues including employees by state with broad job description and
   coordinate with Feldhaus/Philpott for new LLC registration/recommendations
   for appropriate states, ROB PROVIDED LIST, PENDING UPDATE FROM
   FELDHAUS/PHILPOTT

   8)      Rob (June 10)  to clean up old State of Texas registrations
   SUBSTANTIALLY DONE, A FEW LOOSE ENDS IN PROGRESS BY ROB

   9)      Holly (June 3) to provide write up for proposed new legal entity
   to handle anonymous source payment, HOLLY PROVIDED MEMO, NEEDS FURTHER
   DISCUSSION WITH STEVE AND ACTION

   10)   Holly to update shareholder list to include following (done--see
   attached)

   a.       Correction for rounding error

   b.      Removal of restricted stock distinction

   c.       Change 75% voting list to 2/3 vote list

   11)   Rob/Holly (June 17) to review files for copies of old p/s tax
   returns and work with Don to restructure current tax basis for major
   shareholders (Don, George, Feldhaus, etc), note, Holly reviewed
   preliminarily with Dan Rorie, we have expectation that there was zero tax
   basis at time of 2003 LLC treated as partnership for Federal tax was
   merged/converted to C Corp.  To extent more money was put into C Corp in
   the form of equity, may be tax basis. IN PROGRESS

         12)  Rob (June 17) to handle opening new operating account with TCB
   for new legal entity once item (1) above is received, need account open
   and ready to receive funds prior to closing. PENDING RECEIPT OF ITEM 1
   ABOVE

         13)  Holly/Rob (June 30) to ready new Quickbooks online account for
   new LLC for operations prior to closing. PENDING

          14)  Rob/Holly/Fernando (June 17) to provide master contracts
   schedule identifying any contract assignment issues for discussion the
   week of June 13. PENDING

    

   Thanks,

   Holly

    

   Holly Sparkman

   Rorie Sparkman & Associates LLC

   1250 S. Capital of Texas Hwy

   Bldg 1, Suite 300

   Austin, TX  78746

   512-600-3212 t

   512-327-3411 f

   512-350-4736 m

   www.roriesparkman.com

    

   The information contained in this e-mail is confidential and may contain
   privileged, proprietary, or otherwise private information.  If received in
   error, please destroy and notify sender.  Sender does not waive
   confidentiality or privilege, and use is prohibited.

    

    

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   Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
   Version: 10.0.1375 / Virus Database: 1511/3673 - Release Date: 06/01/11
","2011-07-11 22:29:43",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1459746_fwd-new-action-item-list-.html","holly.sparkman@stratfor.com","","rob.bassetti@stratfor.com",""
1477975,"[CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
   cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
   to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing personal
   information on cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I
   could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
   being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
   Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers
   in Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is
   speculation.

   Link: themeData
   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
   denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
   drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
   criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
   addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent video
   release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
   Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
   politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
   consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
   demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
   conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a unique
   threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at online bloggers,
   but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
   from hackers before. 

   What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
        o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
   Mexican cartels.
        o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
        o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
   cartels

   While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
        o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
   information on cartel members
        o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
   cartels
        o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
   identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
   realm of possibilities for
               Anonymous
               o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit
   online activity (child pornography rings)

   Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent world
   of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of cartel
   activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting
   in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
   retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
   cartels.
        o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will cost
   lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are forced
   to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often victims of
   extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
   individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel                  
   operations. Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero
   & Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any consequences
   from this.
        o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
   willing to go protect their operations.
           o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
           o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
   before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
           o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of discovering
   hackers within Mexico.

    

   On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there are
     several issues to address and fix here.

     These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the discussion:

          o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
     can't gloss over that fact
          o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
     stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
     www.loszetas.com main page.
          o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
     could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
     accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
     identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
     businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
     Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
     instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
     they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
     because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
     kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
          o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
     realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
     damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
     technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
     certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
     information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
     internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
     Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
     accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
     dissemination.
          o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace back
     attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by people
     who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker and a
     blogger.

     On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

       wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

       -------- Original Message --------

        Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
           Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
           From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
       Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
             To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

       you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
       more work

       You need to lay out:

       a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
       unclear
       b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and therefore
       their vulnerabilities and capabilities
       c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
       d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
       breaches their systems or exposes their connections

       I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable insight
       that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels of
       sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of cyber
       currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume
       that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a protected
       fashion.

       Karen Hooper
       Latin America Analyst
       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
       c: 512.750.7234
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

       On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       Link: themeData

       Trigger

       Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers. Anonymous,
       a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out at drug
       cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
       criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...? a person
       talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most
       recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
       criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican?
       American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who
       collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas
       release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. The
       potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
       presents an unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
       different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
       Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
       believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do not
       believe for a second that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

        

       In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
       day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
       releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up front.
       Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
       enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how he was
       abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing
       information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels will
       likely respond with violence against individuals revealed as opposing
       cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely
       that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will
       force the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
       don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
       Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
       against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue
       their threats against any individual using online media WC.... you
       mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here. against
       the cartels.

        

       The Battle Space

       Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate realities
       from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of the computer
       networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical boundaries. All
       personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
       not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in the real
       world. They have names and addresses - although most of them are
       likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base consists of their
       technical capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the
       Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's
       of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
       be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous has done are
       DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big company with a
       website that brings in revenue, but it does not really matter if you
       don't run operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via
       e-commerce.  They are also far less dependent on the web than the
       jihadists.)

       Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
       consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
       themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
       internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything and
       everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme goes,
       anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
       people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious
       IT capability. 

       The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
       targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

       The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
       Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to maximize
       profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar commerce. Yes.....
       but they use the internet to launder money and issue commands. We know
       that Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to assume that
       Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.  Their power base is built by
       large amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like
       Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of threats.
       Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
       violence. While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
       Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in the
       flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media outlets.
       Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to cover details of
       their operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
       discussion. You need to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the
       cartels. Don't just assume they have no cyber presence.

        

       Anonymous' Weapons

       Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
       criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to combat
       cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating sensitive
       information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via
       social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and that
       we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to cartels, they
       cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a targeted information
       operations campaign by technically elite individuals can not be
       overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream
       media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
       operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
       bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed with a
       dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a blogger. The
       message threatened any users who denounce cartels on blogging
       websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not really addressing the
       subheading

       As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
       disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous is
       capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
       releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican cartels,
       Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals. Anonymous's ability
       to disseminate sensitive information is limited by what is available
       via the Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
       should always be considered a possibility of an attack. However, as
       with the compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
       networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence collection
       may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This
       isn't clear at all

        

       Cartel's Defense

                   A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet to
       see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by Los
       Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by
       hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
       undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley internet
       based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How
       did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well
       give you some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
       Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
       cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed for
       them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies dedicated to
       fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
       indicating that) they are working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers
       threatening cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal
       information including locations is only available if a hacker chooses
       to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
       figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels are only
       capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can physically
       reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of their own under their
       payroll? Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                   Cartels have been known to coerce the services of Mexican
       citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of computer
       science majors through personal threats has been reported in the past
       where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
       world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will likely need
       the assistance of technical experts to help combat any threat by
       computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has
       been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying
       any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
       such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources than
       cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations. A) How do
       you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???)
       B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to
       track down

                   In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
       likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
       force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
       Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
       with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
       and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and public display
       of violence will likely continue to be used to scare online media into
       submission i'm not really seeing the online media-international
       hacking group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
       inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely encountered
       before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the
       confidence of Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able
       to seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos
       could call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any
       inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 16:32:57",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1477975_-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","tristan.reed@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1478111,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these
   in the US?
    What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
   I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
   whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
   because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
   revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of understanding
   of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is expendable to
   cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of coercion.

   Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
   cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of el
   chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication as a
   tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable intelligence,
   the government will use it against the cartels. That's a physical threat,
   if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify that Anonymous can
   not directly effect physical security. Any impact to the cartel in
   revealing information will be from actions of rival cartels or the GoM.
   They may release information on a given politician being linked to the
   cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the politician will feel an impact
   (Just because Anonymous says there is a link, doesn't make it true). It
   would be up to others to take action.

   Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online activity
   (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to conduct significant
   logistics and business online. We don't know how much, but we do know they
   will have some points of operational vulnerability I have heard of cartels
   doing business online, but don't have specific examples which could be
   used in assessing their vulnerability online.

   by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested
   or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I should say,
   there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out politicians as
   colluding.
   On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

     Karen Hooper
     Latin America Analyst
     o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
     c: 512.750.7234
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com
     On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
     Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible
     cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose
     to cartels. The video released by Anonymous, threatens revealing
     personal information on cartels as well as states a member had been
     kidnapped. I could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of
     the individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
     (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an
     individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the Operation
     Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

     Link: themeData
     Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for distributed
     denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government websites, lashed out at
     drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's
     criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual
     addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent
     video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels
     in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police,
     politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they
     specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the
     US?
      What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
     group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
     face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
     mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
     demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
     conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a
     unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels lashing out at online
     bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any
     headaches from hackers before. 

     What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
          o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to
     Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the
     head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using
     publication as a tool to force government action. If you reveal
     actionable intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels.
     That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
          o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media
          o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at
     cartels

     While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat
          o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess identifiable
     information on cartel members
          o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
     cartels
          o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
     identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the
     realm of possibilities for
                 Anonymous
                 o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
     illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are
     known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't
     know how much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
     vulnerability

     Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the ultra-violent
     world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a result, their understanding of
     cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when
     sitting in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
     retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of
     cartels.
          o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
     cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
     forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
     victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
     identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
     cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
     working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor) before, however
     there has yet to be any consequences from this. by \"no consequences\"
     what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and
     that happens all the time.
          o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
     willing to go protect their operations.
             o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
             o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science community
     before, coercing computer science majors into working for them.
             o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
     discovering hackers within Mexico.
     need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply publishing
     tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the same camp as
     the bloggers

      

     On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

       Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
       are several issues to address and fix here.

       These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
       discussion:

            o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we
       can't gloss over that fact
            o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference between
       stealing bank records from government computers and overloading
       www.loszetas.com main page.
            o     There's no thought out process of what sort of information
       could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and
       accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about
       identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and
       businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying.
       Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous
       instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because
       they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or
       because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what
       kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves?
            o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
       realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
       damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
       technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate
       certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of
       information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the
       internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found?
       Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is
       accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of
       dissemination.
            o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
       back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by
       people who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker
       and a blogger.

       On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

         wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

         -------- Original Message --------

          Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
             Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
             From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
         Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
               To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

         you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot
         more work

         You need to lay out:

         a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is
         unclear
         b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
         therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
         c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
         d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who
         breaches their systems or exposes their connections

         I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
         insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
         of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
         cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to
         assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
         protected fashion.

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

         On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

         Link: themeData

         Trigger

         Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
         Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out
         at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
         Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...?
         a person talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?.  With
         the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
         the criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
         Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group
         demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face
         consequences. The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal
         cartels and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the
         cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas
         leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
         experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no experience
         with the cartels. I do not believe for a second that the cartels
         have no experience with hackers.

          

         In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
         day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
         releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
         front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back.
         Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how
         he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing
         revealing information on cartel members and operations are true,
         cartels will likely respond with violence against individuals
         revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous
         members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials
         who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
         Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this means. You
         mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel
         will be able to retaliate against Anonymous remains unanswered .
         However, cartels will continue their threats against any individual
         using online media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not
         talking about bloggers here. against the cartels.

          

         The Battle Space

         Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
         realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
         the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
         boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
         cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
         tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses - although
         most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power base
         consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any information
         connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers.
         (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of
         Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of
         what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are
         Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in revenue,
         but it does not really matter if you don't run operations on the
         web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far
         less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

         Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
         consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
         themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
         internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
         and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
         goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web
         of people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of
         serious IT capability. 

         The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from
         targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

         The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
         Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
         maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
         commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
         issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
         is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity.
         Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and escalating
         brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing
         different types of threats. Cartels are always suffering at the
         hands of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each other,
         cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels
         wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels
         have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online
         bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok... but
         that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus
         on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume
         they have no cyber presence.

          

         Anonymous' Weapons

         Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
         criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
         combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
         sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
         statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean
         so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
         cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of a
         targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
         individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
         Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
         such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
         target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los
         Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
         body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce
         cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
         really addressing the subheading

         As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
         disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous
         is capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By
         releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
         cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals.
         Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive information is limited
         by what is available via the Internet. Government computers
         connected to the Internet should always be considered a possibility
         of an attack. However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the
         US governments computer networks, information available to Mexico's
         intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you
         trying to say here? This isn't clear at all

          

         Cartel's Defense

                     A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet
         to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by
         Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed
         by hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also
         this undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley
         internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated
         members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that
         could very well give you some indication to the technical ability of
         the cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world
         wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely
         are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole
         agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume
         (and we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
         disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in
         any region of the world. Personal information including locations is
         only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject
         of the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
         work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
         online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
         employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger things
         have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                     Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
         Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of
         computer science majors through personal threats has been reported
         in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels
         operate in the world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they
         will likely need the assistance of technical experts to help combat
         any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying bloggers inside
         of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable
         of identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law
         enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical
         experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers
         through investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
         (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not
         all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                     In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
         likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
         force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
         Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals
         with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be
         targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
         public display of violence will likely continue to be used to scare
         online media into submission i'm not really seeing the online
         media-international hacking group connection here.  The cruel
         manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer hackers
         have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
         cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to
         be seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
         the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff and
         simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 18:19:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1478111_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","tristan.reed@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1478219,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   Good point. 
   In terrorist terms they are more like grassroots people than AQ core. 
   From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:11:05 -0500
   To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
   Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They are
   a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
   online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do this
   in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people joining
   Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or something
   like that. 

   Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

   On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

     do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
     these in the US?
      What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
     I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
     whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
     because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
     revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
     understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
     expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
     coercion.

     Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
     cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of el
     chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication as a
     tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable intelligence,
     the government will use it against the cartels. That's a physical
     threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify that
     Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact to the
     cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival cartels or
     the GoM. They may release information on a given politician being linked
     to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the politician will feel
     an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a link, doesn't make it
     true). It would be up to others to take action.  I think the way you
     have it worded in the above sentence is good.  Follow with a sentence
     explaining the rest of it, because readers will have the same question
     Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat to cartels would come in
     what information anonymous could expose that is useful to their enemies'

     Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
     activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to conduct
     significant logistics and business online. We don't know how much, but
     we do know they will have some points of operational vulnerability I
     have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't have specific
     examples which could be used in assessing their vulnerability online.

     by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
     arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
     should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
     politicians as colluding.
     On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

       Karen Hooper
       Latin America Analyst
       o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
       c: 512.750.7234
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
       Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
       possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
       Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using the
       banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
       cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
       find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being
       kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and
       Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting
       flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the Operation
       Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is good and
       will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a quick
       explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding something in
       the explaining the flyers will work]

       Link: themeData
       Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
       denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate websites,
       lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
       denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a
       masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With
       the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards
       the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities
       of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude with
       criminal cartels do they specify whether or not these are all in
       Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
       group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
       face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
       was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
       their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
       potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
       presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational criminal
       organization, it's not really unique.  Many such organizations do
       their crimes online, and have been hacked in response--like the
       nigerian princess scams. I think you should just say it's a unique
       threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out at online bloggers,
       but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches
       from hackers before. 

       What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
            o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat
       to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to
       the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using
       publication as a tool to force government action. If you reveal
       actionable intelligence, the government will use it against the
       cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
            o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
       media
            o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
       at cartels

       While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
       threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

               -The threat is in the information they can expose that may be
   of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or other
   cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but i could
   imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the public).

            o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
       identifiable information on cartel members 
            o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
       cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
       section/paragraph]
            o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
       identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
       the realm of possibilities for
                   Anonymous
                   o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
       illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are
       known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't
       know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
       operational vulnerability

      -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
   (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
   cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
   replaceable. 
               -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents have
   access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any sort of
   existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

       Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
       world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that some
       of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to the
       violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is there
       are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems very
       possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have joined
       up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of cartel
       activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other countries may
       act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but this may
       blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even know the
       impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the part below and above is
       written rather normatively.  We need to take that out.  just state the
       facts]
            o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will
       cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are
       forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi drivers are often
       victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the
       identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on
       cartel                   operations. Politicans have been accused of
       working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor) before, however
       there has yet to be any consequences from this. by \"no consequences\"
       what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and
       that happens all the time.
            o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are
       willing to go protect their operations.
               o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
               o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
       community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
       them.
               o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
       discovering hackers within Mexico.
       need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply publishing
       tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the same camp as
       the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that their damage
       will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can do--limited.  But
       maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are no longer
       challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

        

       On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

         Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there
         are several issues to address and fix here.

         These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
         discussion:

              o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
         we can't gloss over that fact
              o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
         between stealing bank records from government computers and
         overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
              o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
         information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
         kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
         talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
         politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
         going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
         killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
         operational details, because they acted as informants, because they
         exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied the
         cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
         to the cartels themselves?
              o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
         realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of
         damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the
         technical ability by a very small number of its members to
         infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information. Now
         what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that is
         connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
         information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
         of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
         consequences of dissemination.
              o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
         back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done
         by people who may not understand the difference between an anon
         hacker and a blogger.

         On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

           wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

           -------- Original Message --------

            Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
               Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
               From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
           Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                 To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

           you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
           lot more work

           You need to lay out:

           a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
           is unclear
           b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
           therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
           c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
           d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
           who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

           I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
           insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels
           of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of
           cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason
           to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
           protected fashion.

           Karen Hooper
           Latin America Analyst
           o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
           c: 512.750.7234
           STRATFOR
           www.stratfor.com
           On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

           On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

           Link: themeData

           Trigger

           Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
           Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
           out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing
           Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
           depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
           exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
           makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
           releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
           politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
           The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
           member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
           between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
           unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
           operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
           Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
           believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
           not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience with
           hackers.

            

           In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as
           a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of
           releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up
           front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit
           back. Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and
           why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of
           possessing revealing information on cartel members and operations
           are true, cartels will likely respond with violence against
           individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean
           Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of
           GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take
           action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand
           what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
           effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against Anonymous
           remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue their threats
           against any individual using online media WC.... you mean tools?
           or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here. against the
           cartels.

            

           The Battle Space

           Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
           realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of
           the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical
           boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in
           cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They are physical people
           tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses -
           although most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
           base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any
           information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by
           hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the
           midst of Mexico's population could be quite difficult.  Remember
           that most of what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if
           you are Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in
           revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run operations
           on the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are
           also far less dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

           Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base
           consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe
           themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the
           internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything
           and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme
           goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large
           web of people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort
           of serious IT capability. 

           The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
           from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

           The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
           Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
           maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
           commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and
           issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There
           is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
           capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
           and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
           experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
           always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence. While
           battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement
           Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of
           drugs and money, cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering
           journalists and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
           operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
           discussion. You need to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of
           the cartels. Don't just assume they have no cyber presence.

            

           Anonymous' Weapons

           Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
           criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
           combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating
           sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel
           statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you
           mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their
           video to cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance
           of a targeted information operations campaign by technically elite
           individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated.
           Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as
           such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to
           target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by
           Los Zetas was placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on
           the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
           denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here,
           and it's not really addressing the subheading

           As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks
           disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
           Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
           release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
           Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
           individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
           information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
           Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
           considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
           compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer networks,
           information available to Mexico's intelligence collection may not
           be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
           clear at all

            

           Cartel's Defense

                       A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
           yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
           member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
           threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
           response? also this undermines your statements above about how
           Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
           vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
           Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you some
           indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As Anonymous
           exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the cartels
           will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed for them
           Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies dedicated to
           fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good
           intel indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
           cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any region
           of the world. Personal information including locations is only
           available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject of
           the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only
           work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their
           online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
           employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger
           things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                       Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
           Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help
           of computer science majors through personal threats has been
           reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?.  Since
           cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
           trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
           experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
           identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
           unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers operating
           outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such as the FBi,
           with far more technical experience and resources than cartels,
           struggle to find hackers through investigations. A) How do you
           know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???)
           B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult
           to track down

                       In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
           likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute
           force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within
           Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?. 
           Individuals with alleged connections to hacker communities will
           likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco
           banners and public display of violence will likely continue to be
           used to scare online media into submission i'm not really seeing
           the online media-international hacking group connection here.  The
           cruel manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer
           hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether
           the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous
           will remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
           capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the
           collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience
           that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 20:33:26",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1478219_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1478301,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   yes, marc called them a mob - and that seems accurate

   On 10/24/11 1:33 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     Good point. 
     In terrorist terms they are more like grassroots people than AQ core. 
     From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
     Reply-To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:11:05 -0500
     To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
     Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They
     are a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
     online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do
     this in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people
     joining Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or
     something like that. 

     Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

     On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
       these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
       I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
       whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
       because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
       revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
       understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
       expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
       coercion.

       Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
       cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of
       el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication
       as a tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable
       intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels. That's a
       physical threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify
       that Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact
       to the cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival
       cartels or the GoM. They may release information on a given politician
       being linked to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the
       politician will feel an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a
       link, doesn't make it true). It would be up to others to take action. 
       I think the way you have it worded in the above sentence is good. 
       Follow with a sentence explaining the rest of it, because readers will
       have the same question Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat
       to cartels would come in what information anonymous could expose that
       is useful to their enemies'

       Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
       activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to
       conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how
       much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
       vulnerability I have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't
       have specific examples which could be used in assessing their
       vulnerability online.

       by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
       arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
       should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
       politicians as colluding.
       On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
         possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
         Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using
         the banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
         cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
         find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
         being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico
         and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
         posting flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the
         Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is
         good and will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a
         quick explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding
         something in the explaining the flyers will work]

         Link: themeData
         Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
         denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate
         websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
         statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
         depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
         October 10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold
         threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
         releasing identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they specify
         whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
          What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
         group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
         face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
         their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
         potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
         presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational
         criminal organization, it's not really unique.  Many such
         organizations do their crimes online, and have been hacked in
         response--like the nigerian princess scams. I think you should just
         say it's a unique threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out
         at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels
         dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
         threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a
         gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for
         the using publication as a tool to force government action. If you
         reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it against
         the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
         media
              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
         at cartels

         While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
         threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

                 -The threat is in the information they can expose that may
     be of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or
     other cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but
     i could imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the
     public).

              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
         identifiable information on cartel members 
              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
         cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
         section/paragraph]
              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
         identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
         the realm of possibilities for
                     Anonymous
                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
         illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels
         are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We
         don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
         operational vulnerability

        -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
     (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
     cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
     replaceable. 
                 -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents
     have access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any
     sort of existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

         Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
         world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that
         some of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to
         the violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is
         there are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems
         very possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have
         joined up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of
         cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other
         countries may act with confidence when sitting in front of a
         computer, but this may blind them to any possible retribution. They
         may not even know the impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the
         part below and above is written rather normatively.  We need to take
         that out.  just state the facts]
              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
         will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
         individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
         drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
         halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not have
         a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
         Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
         consequences from this. by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you
         mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens all
         the time.
              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
         are willing to go protect their operations.
                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                 o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
         community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
         them.
                 o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
         discovering hackers within Mexico.
         need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply
         publishing tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the
         same camp as the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that
         their damage will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can
         do--limited.  But maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are
         no longer challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

          

         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
           there are several issues to address and fix here.

           These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
           discussion:

                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
           we can't gloss over that fact
                o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
           between stealing bank records from government computers and
           overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
           information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
           kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
           politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
           going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
           killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
           operational details, because they acted as informants, because
           they exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied
           the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is
           damaging to the cartels themselves?
                o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
           realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure
           of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for
           the technical ability by a very small number of its members to
           infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information.
           Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that
           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
           information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
           of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
           consequences of dissemination.
                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
           back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings
           done by people who may not understand the difference between an
           anon hacker and a blogger.

           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                 From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
             Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                   To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

             you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
             lot more work

             You need to lay out:

             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
             is unclear
             b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
             therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
             d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
             who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

             I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
             insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
             levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
             the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
             is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
             business online, in a protected fashion.

             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
             c: 512.750.7234
             STRATFOR
             www.stratfor.com
             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             Link: themeData

             Trigger

             Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
             Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
             out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
             denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
             depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
             exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
             makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
             releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
             politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
             The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
             member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
             between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
             unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
             operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
             Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
             believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
             not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience
             with hackers.

              

             In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned
             as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
             demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned
             right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening
             to hit back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
             guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous'
             claims of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
             operations are true, cartels will likely respond with violence
             against individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you
             mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
             disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the
             GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
             don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
             Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
             against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
             continue their threats against any individual using online media
             WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about
             bloggers here. against the cartels.

              

             The Battle Space

             Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
             realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
             of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
             geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
             exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
             are physical people tho live in the real world. They have names
             and addresses - although most of them are likely outside of MX.)
              Anonymous' power base consists of their technical capabilities
             in hacking. Any information connected to the Internet is
             vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of
             individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population
             could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
             has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
             company with a website that brings in revenue, but it does not
             really matter if you don't run operations on the web. Los Z
             don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far less
             dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

             Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
             base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
             believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
             through the internet. This gives an opening for people
             disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
             dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
             Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
             themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious IT
             capability. 

             The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
             from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

             The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
             Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
             maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
             commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
             and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight.
             There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
             capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
             and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
             experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
             always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
             While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
             Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
             the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media
             outlets. Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to
             cover details of their operations. ok... but that's kind of a
             red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus on the
             possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
             have no cyber presence.

              

             Anonymous' Weapons

             Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
             criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
             combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
             disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
             anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites in
             Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
             admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
             guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
             campaign by technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
             should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream media
             outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
             operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
             bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed
             with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a
             blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce cartels
             on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
             really addressing the subheading

             As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
             risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
             Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
             release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
             Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
             individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
             information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
             Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
             considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
             compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
             networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence
             collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to
             say here? This isn't clear at all

              

             Cartel's Defense

                         A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
             yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
             member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
             threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
             response? also this undermines your statements above about how
             Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
             vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
             Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you
             some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
             Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
             cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed
             for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
             dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and
             we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
             disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can
             operate in any region of the world. Personal information
             including locations is only available if a hacker chooses to
             divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
             figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels
             are only capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can
             physically reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of
             their own under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
             Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                         Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
             Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
             help of computer science majors through personal threats has
             been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
             Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
             trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
             experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
             identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
             is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
             operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such
             as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources
             than cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations.
             A) How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
             kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are
             equally difficult to track down

                         In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
             likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with,
             brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
             operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they
             wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
             communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
             members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
             likely continue to be used to scare online media into submission
             i'm not really seeing the online media-international hacking
             group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
             inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
             encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel
             violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to be
             seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
             the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff
             and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
             inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 20:39:58",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1478301_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1478323,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   if anonymous outs taxi cab drivers working with Zeta, they are dead.  that
   is both simple and devastating.  If they release email accounts of GOM
   folks, and there are cartel members in that address book that would be
   devastating.  I think our definitions of devastating are different.  I
   agree the ability of these folks to bring down governments is minimal, but
   I am willing to bet the next deep throat scenario will come via a hacker
   and information they are able to steal. 

   On 10/24/11 3:12 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     1. Look at the anonymous hackers tacked down already

     2. NSA will tell you otherwise.  The question is if the attack is high
     priority enough.  Many people assume there is no attribution because
     there is no response, but I don't think that is accurate. 
     has NSA told you otherwise?  i am unclear, are you saying the entire
     darknet is mapped, or could be mapped, only it isn't because the NSA
     doesn't care or doens't share? 
     3.  Your example is short-sighted.  You don't just open a new laptop and
     start hacking e-mail addresses.  A cyber attack involves much more than
     a recently bought laptop.  In the same way there is an attack cycle for
     a terrorist attack or crime, there is one for a cyber attack.  A very
     simple attack may be as hard to trace as a nearly-random mugging in the
     dark in a neighborhood with much more serious crime and no CCTV cameras.
     so simple=low damage, and complicated = more damage?  if you hacked
     Calderon's blackberry and found out who his contacts were, and one of
     them was Chapo's sister, it would be simple and devastating.  A more
     complicated attack, however, involves pre-operational surveillance,
     developing exploits, developing programs and code, gaining access,
     exploiting that, and carrying out an attack.  And that takes time,
     giving more time for your exposure. Look at everything that went into
     Stuxnet as a great example, that couldn't be done with one person with a
     new laptop.  All of this activity provides activity and evidence which
     helps for attribution.  Of course it is always possible to develop an
     attack, just like any other operation, that even the best law
     enforcement and national intelligence agencies have trouble or cannot
     attribute.  That's fine.  My point is that it's very difficult for
     someone to successfully use Anonymous as a cover and have NSA, GHQ, MID,
     Aman, etc, be unable to attribute it.  They may not choose to cover it
     if it is small scale crime, however. 
     On 10/24/11 1:38 PM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       I wouldn't doubt using Anonymous as a cover for state sponsored cyber
       warfare. Not sure the number of benefits in actually doing that, since
       you can conduct a cyber attack without associating with a hacker group
       and still deny / cover actions on behalf of the State. An individual
       attacking US computer assets from China, may be working by himself or
       on behalf of the Chinese government, but unless the US has other intel
       on the Chinese government's cyber warfare activities in order to
       corroborate there is little capability to distinguish.

       It is very difficult to track down hackers. Computer network
       operations do not fall under the discipline of SIGINT. Assets from
       SIGINT would not directly help you track an individual responsible for
       hacking State run servers. In the past, I have turned to SIGINT
       organizations for collections on computer related material, but this
       was due to the US being behind in cyber warfare, and not knowing where
       to assign responsibility. However, this has changed dramatically in
       the last couple of years.

       Online activities, with adequate OPSEC, truly are anonymous. As an
       extreme scenario of OPSEC: If I purchase a laptop in cash, go to a
       Starbucks with free public wifi, and never attribute the online
       activity to something revealing (accessing personal email accounts,
       tweeting, entering personal information to the laptop, etc..), and
       begin hacking government email accounts then never use the laptop
       again. Unless LEA could get an accurate description of my appearance
       from Starbuck's patrons or possible security cameras, I can not think
       of way to identify me.

       Governments, attempting to track cyber enemies, do not refer to these
       enemies as individuals. Instead as generic entities tied to specific
       computer-related activities because of the difficulty in identifying
       individuals.

       I think the most likely way for a \"Anonymous cover\" to be blown, would
       be the chatter in all the IRC channels. But what if a common
       participant in \"Anonymous\" activities, was working for a State?
       Anonymous has denounced state governments before, if that State agent
       organizes an attack amongst his IRC / Twitter buddies, what signs
       could a LEA look for to distinguish?

       On 10/24/11 12:38 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         In reply to Kerley (my comments on the discussion coming in a bit)

         1. Anonymous has not shown the capability to do anything actually
         harmful or devastating.  I'm not saying they can't, but i'm very
         doubtfoul.  Tristan's discussion shows the first real case where
         they could do some minor damage--to individual people, not not to an
         organization or anything that would come as a serious or strategic
         threat. 

         2. Attribution by the world' leading SIGINT agencies is actually
         pretty good.  I see the fear of using 'anonymous' as a cover, but
         that would be pretty easy to bungle, and could probably still be
         attributed if important enough to those agencies.  The recent attack
         on Sony actually brings this issue up- Whoever is calling themselves
         anonymous denies they did it.  And keep in mind how much they have
         claimed an publicized attacks in the past, even before they were
         carried out.  The attack on the Playstation Network was more
         sophisticated than anonymous' usual work (though potentially
         coordinated with Anonymous' DDOS attacks that distracted Sony's IT
         security).  But whoever did it, again, no real damage came of it. 
         Congress is holding hearings over data security, but this is no
         different than the OC groups stealing your credit card information. 
         LE will go after them, have some success, but the threat is not that
         large. 
         On 10/24/11 11:04 AM, Kerley Tolpolar wrote:

           Link: themeData

           I see the Zetas/Anonymous affairs as a good opportunity to have a
           broader piece on Anonymous. I believe our readers no nothing, or
           almost nothing about what this group is and the threat it poses.
           Reviewing their list of attacks
           (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anonymous_%28group%29), in most of
           the cases, they are the \"good\" guys, sort of a Robin Hood of the
           internet . The interesting thing when it comes to their
           interactions with the cartels is the dubious role they play: at
           the same time they can be fighting crime by revealing cartel
           members/supporters, but they can also put lives in risk.

           However, I believe this is only one of the threats posed by
           Anonymous. The idea that states, and anyone else on Earth, can
           conduct a cyber attack under \"Anonymous\" is worrisome.
           (http://www.zdnet.co.uk/blogs/security-bullet-in-10000166/akamai-cyber-spies-are-hiding-behind-anonymous-10024573/)

           If I run an organization, if I am responsible for government
           websites, or if I am just a internet user, I would like to know
           more about these guys. Who they are? What are they interested in?
           How they operate? Who they have targeted so far? How can I defend
           myself from them? In what countries are they active? Should I
           worry about them at all? Can I use them to achieve any particular
           goal?

           On 10/24/11 10:22 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             nice.  i still think the central focus, and what everything else
             can build off of, is that Anonymous doesn't know the threat they
             pose to innocent people caught up in the terror that is Mexico. 
             By focusing on journalists or taxi drivers they show little
             understanding of the situation.  This has long term implications
             in not just Mexico.  They don't consider the consequences of
             their actions and they act without understanding the
             environment.  It was the same when they released information on
             the Sony Playstation network to protest Sony.  They hurt
             innocent people to prove a point. 

             On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

               Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
               possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
               Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by
               Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on cartels
               as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
               find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the
               individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites
               (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it
               may be an individual posting flyers in Veracruz as part of the
               Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation.

               Link: themeData
               Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for
               distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government
               websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
               statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a
               video depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug
               cartels on October 10? With the most recent video release,
               Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in
               Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers,
               police, politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal
               cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow
               kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In the
               Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a
               day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands
               of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of
               conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
               presents a unique threat towards TCOs. We know of cartels
               lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any
               reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers
               before. 

               What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
                    o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
               threat to Mexican cartels.
                    o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit
               online media
                    o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to
               lash out at cartels

               While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose
               a threat
                    o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims to possess
               identifiable information on cartel members
                    o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could
               acquire on cartels
                    o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or
               communications, identifiable information on cartels members
               have to be considered in the realm of possibilities for
                           Anonymous
                           o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to
               reveal illicit online activity (child pornography rings)

               Anonymous hackers likely have not been involved in the
               ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico. As a
               result, their understanding of cartel activities may be
               limited. Anonymous may act with confidence when sitting in
               front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible
               retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online
               assault of cartels.
                    o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and
               journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some
               of these individuals are forced to collude with cartels.    
                         Taxi drivers are often victims of extortion or
               coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these
               individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel    
                             operations. Politicans have been accused of
               working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor) before,
               however there has yet to be any consequences from this.
                    o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent
               cartels are willing to go protect their operations.
                       o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                       o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
               community before, coercing computer science majors into
               working for them.
                       o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
               discovering hackers within Mexico.

                

               On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                 Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea
                 but there are several issues to address and fix here.

                 These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
                 discussion:

                      o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's
                 fine but we can't gloss over that fact
                      o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a
                 difference between stealing bank records from government
                 computers and overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                      o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
                 information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of
                 info is kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You
                 seem to be talking about identities, whose? If anything it's
                 dirty cops, politicians and businessmen who need to worry
                 about what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the
                 bloggers and media were killed in previous instances. Was it
                 because they revealed operational details, because they
                 acted as informants, because they exposed links with
                 officials or because they somehow sullied the cartel's
                 reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging
                 to the cartels themselves?
                      o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon
                 can realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes
                 a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence
                 capacity except for the technical ability by a very small
                 number of its members to infiltrate certain networks and
                 databases and steal information. Now what kind of
                 information would a cartel keep on a network that is
                 connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else
                 could information be found? Government databases? Once we
                 know what kind of information is accessible, we can also
                 know more about the consequences of dissemination.
                      o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to
                 trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of
                 killings done by people who may not understand the
                 difference between an anon hacker and a blogger.

                 On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

                   wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

                   -------- Original Message --------

                    Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                       Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                       From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
                   Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                         To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

                   you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to
                   need a lot more work

                   You need to lay out:

                   a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger
                   section is unclear
                   b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is,
                   and therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
                   c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security
                   anything
                   d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill
                   anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their
                   connections

                   I also just want to point out that we have reasonable
                   reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some
                   significant levels of sophistication in their online
                   presence, to include the use of cyber currencies and
                   significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume that
                   Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a
                   protected fashion.

                   Karen Hooper
                   Latin America Analyst
                   o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
                   c: 512.750.7234
                   STRATFOR
                   www.stratfor.com
                   On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

                   On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

                   Link: themeData

                   Trigger

                   Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
                   Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?,
                   lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
                   statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including
                   a video released depicting...? a person talking? a voice?
                   words on a screen? exactly when?.  With the most recent
                   video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the
                   criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of
                   Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
                   journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker
                   group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member
                   otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
                   between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
                   unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly
                   different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a
                   conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little
                   experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no
                   experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second
                   that the cartels have no experience with hackers.

                    

                   In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was
                   mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous'
                   reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member
                   this should be mentioned right up front. Cartels have a
                   member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide
                   enough details so we understand who this guy is and
                   why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims
                   of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
                   operations are true, cartels will likely respond with
                   violence against individuals revealed as opposing cartel
                   members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is
                   likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude
                   with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the
                   Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this
                   means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How
                   effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against
                   Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
                   continue their threats against any individual using online
                   media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking
                   about bloggers here. against the cartels.

                    

                   The Battle Space

                   Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two
                   separate realities from each other. Anonymous operates
                   solely in sphere of the computer networks. Anonymous does
                   not experience geographical boundaries. All personalities
                   within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space.  (That is
                   not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in
                   the real world. They have names and addresses - although
                   most of them are likely outside of MX.)  Anonymous' power
                   base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking.
                   Any information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to
                   exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual
                   cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could
                   be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
                   has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or
                   a big company with a website that brings in revenue, but
                   it does not really matter if you don't run operations on
                   the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce.  They
                   are also far less dependent on the web than the
                   jihadists.)

                   Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's
                   power base consists of the perceived anonymity that its
                   members believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by
                   operating through the internet. This gives an opening for
                   people disgruntled by anything and everything to practice
                   general dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity +
                   audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of
                   people who identify themselves as \"anonymous\" have any
                   sort of serious IT capability. 

                   The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has
                   been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

                   The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in
                   US and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always
                   looking to maximize profits and expand. But they are
                   bricks and mortar commerce. Yes..... but they use the
                   internet to launder money and issue commands. We know that
                   Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to
                   assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity. 
                   Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and
                   escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
                   experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels
                   are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel
                   violence. While battling each other, cartels still face
                   arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to
                   avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money,
                   cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists
                   and online bloggers in order to cover details of their
                   operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this
                   discussion. You need to focus on the possible
                   vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
                   have no cyber presence.

                    

                   Anonymous' Weapons

                   Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions
                   against criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous'
                   only ability to combat cartels lay in information
                   operations, mainly disseminating sensitive information on
                   cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via social
                   media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and
                   that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to
                   cartels, they cannot fight with guns.  The significance of
                   a targeted information operations campaign by technically
                   elite individuals can not be overlooked should not be
                   underestimated. Cartels view main stream media outlets and
                   social media blogs as such a threat to their operations,
                   that they have continued to target journalists and
                   bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was
                   placed with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the
                   body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who
                   denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive
                   here, and it's not really addressing the subheading

                   As stated earlier, any information connected to the
                   internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample
                   reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing
                   information they threaten to release. By releasing
                   identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican
                   cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
                   individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
                   information is limited by what is available via the
                   Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet
                   should always be considered a possibility of an attack.
                   However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US
                   governments computer networks, information available to
                   Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to
                   acquire.  what are you trying to say here? This isn't
                   clear at all

                    

                   Cartel's Defense

                               A counter response to the video? by the
                   cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous'
                   claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los
                   Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by hackers
                   so... how has there not been a counter response? also this
                   undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is
                   soley internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities
                   of associated members. How did they find teh Anonymous
                   member? The answer to that could very well give you some
                   indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
                   Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web
                   , the cartels will face a number of challenges which
                   rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG
                   has whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in
                   cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel
                   indicating that) they are working on disrupting the
                   cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any
                   region of the world. Personal information including
                   locations is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge
                   it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
                   figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous.
                   Cartels are only capable of dealing with their online
                   enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start
                   employing hackers of their own under their payroll?
                   Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                               Cartels have been known to coerce the services
                   of Mexican citizens with a technical background.
                   Recruiting the help of computer science majors through
                   personal threats has been reported in the past where? What
                   cartels? reported where?.  Since cartels operate in the
                   world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will
                   likely need the assistance of technical experts to help
                   combat any threat by computer hackers.  While identifying
                   bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is
                   unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
                   operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies
                   such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and
                   resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers through
                   investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico?
                   (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume
                   that not all hackers are equally difficult to track down

                               In order to compete with an online foe,
                   cartels will likely continue counter tactics they are most
                   familiar with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of
                   their HUMINT operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would
                   we assume they wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged
                   connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted
                   and interrogated by cartel members.  Narco banners and
                   public display of violence will likely continue to be used
                   to scare online media into submission i'm not really
                   seeing the online media-international hacking group
                   connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
                   inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
                   encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of
                   cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will
                   remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and
                   capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could
                   call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off
                   any inconvenience that Anon can inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Colby Martin
 Tactical Analyst
 colby.martin@stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 22:29:35",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1478323_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1481918,"Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels
","   I agree. I haven't seen any defining attributes of Anonymous as a group.
   They may not even know the identities of each other. There are several
   facebook / twitter Anonymous pages, which seem to be run by different
   individuals.

   What about defining Anonymous in terms of the individual? Instead of
   saying Anonymous attacking cartels, Individuals acting under the Anonymous
   name....

   -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents have access to,
   and doubt they have such information that provides any sort of existential
   threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 
   This is a problem with the threat assessment. Technically, anything cartel
   related (emails, online transactions, Mexican LEA information, etc.) would
   be available to a hacker, but we don't know if they have had access to
   this information, or if the hackers interested in harming cartels are
   capable. It's not even confirmed hackers have revealing information on
   cartel supporters which the video claims.

   On 10/24/11 1:11 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith.  They
     are a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an
     online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do
     this in writing consistently.  But let's start with shit like 'people
     joining Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or
     something like that. 

     Comments in green below.  This is coming together nicely. 

     On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

       do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of
       these in the US?
        What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?.
       I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention
       whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant
       because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in
       revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of
       understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is
       expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of
       coercion.

       Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican
       cartels.  mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of
       el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication
       as a tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable
       intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels. That's a
       physical threat, if one step removed.   Agreed, but I want to specify
       that Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact
       to the cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival
       cartels or the GoM. They may release information on a given politician
       being linked to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the
       politician will feel an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a
       link, doesn't make it true). It would be up to others to take action. 
       I think the way you have it worded in the above sentence is good. 
       Follow with a sentence explaining the rest of it, because readers will
       have the same question Karen did.  Something like 'Rather, the threat
       to cartels would come in what information anonymous could expose that
       is useful to their enemies'

       Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online
       activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to
       conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how
       much, but we do know they will have some points of operational
       vulnerability I have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't
       have specific examples which could be used in assessing their
       vulnerability online.

       by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired,
       arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time.  Point taken, I
       should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out
       politicians as colluding.
       On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

         Karen Hooper
         Latin America Analyst
         o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
         c: 512.750.7234
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:
         Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing
         possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat
         Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using
         the banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on
         cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not
         find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual
         being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico
         and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual
         posting flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the
         Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is
         good and will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a
         quick explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is.  Adding
         something in the explaining the flyers will work]

         Link: themeData
         Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective  famous for distributed
         denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate
         websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a
         statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video
         depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on
         October 10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold
         threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as
         releasing identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and
         journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they specify
         whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the US?
          What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker
         group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise
         face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th
         was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if
         their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The
         potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers,
         presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational
         criminal organization, it's not really unique.  Many such
         organizations do their crimes online, and have been hacked in
         response--like the nigerian princess scams. I think you should just
         say it's a unique threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out
         at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels
         dealing with any headaches from hackers before. 

         What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict
              o     Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security
         threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a
         gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for
         the using publication as a tool to force government action. If you
         reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it against
         the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed.  
              o     Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online
         media
              o     Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out
         at cartels

         While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a
         threat, if it had access to certain types of information:

                 -The threat is in the information they can expose that may
     be of use to any cartel enemies.  That could be to the government or
     other cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but
     i could imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the
     public).

              o     It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess
         identifiable information on cartel members 
              o     It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on
         cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this
         section/paragraph]
              o     Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications,
         identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in
         the realm of possibilities for
                     Anonymous
                     o    Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal
         illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels
         are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We
         don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of
         operational vulnerability

        -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels 
     (use the stuff you have above].  Releasing such information could hurt
     cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily
     replaceable. 
                 -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents
     have access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any
     sort of existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. 

         Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent
         world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that
         some of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to
         the violence [or something like that.  my limited understanding is
         there are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah?  it seems
         very possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have
         joined up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of
         cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other
         countries may act with confidence when sitting in front of a
         computer, but this may blind them to any possible retribution. They
         may not even know the impact of any online assault of cartels.  [the
         part below and above is written rather normatively.  We need to take
         that out.  just state the facts]
              o     Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists
         will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these
         individuals are forced to collude with cartels.               Taxi
         drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as
         halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not have
         a significant impact on cartel                   operations.
         Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero &
         Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any
         consequences from this. by \"no consequences\" what exactly do you
         mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens all
         the time.
              o     Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels
         are willing to go protect their operations.
                 o    Any hackers in Mexico are at risk.
                 o    Cartels have reached out to the computer science
         community before, coercing computer science majors into working for
         them.
                 o    This provides the cartels with the possibility of
         discovering hackers within Mexico.
         need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply
         publishing tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the
         same camp as the bloggers  [yes, i think it needs to be clear that
         their damage will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can
         do--limited.  But maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are
         no longer challenging governments, but criminal organizations]

          

         On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

           Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but
           there are several issues to address and fix here.

           These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the
           discussion:

                o     we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but
           we can't gloss over that fact
                o     \"hackers\" is a blanket term - there's a difference
           between stealing bank records from government computers and
           overloading www.loszetas.com main page.
                o     There's no thought out process of what sort of
           information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is
           kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be
           talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops,
           politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is
           going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were
           killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed
           operational details, because they acted as informants, because
           they exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied
           the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is
           damaging to the cartels themselves?
                o     Once you identify this info - think about if anon can
           realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure
           of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for
           the technical ability by a very small number of its members to
           infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information.
           Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that
           is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could
           information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind
           of information is accessible, we can also know more about the
           consequences of dissemination.
                o     What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace
           back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings
           done by people who may not understand the difference between an
           anon hacker and a blogger.

           On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote:

             wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst

             -------- Original Message --------

              Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels 
                 Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500            
                 From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>         
             Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   
                   To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>                   

             you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a
             lot more work

             You need to lay out:

             a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section
             is unclear
             b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and
             therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities
             c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything
             d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone
             who breaches their systems or exposes their connections

             I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable
             insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant
             levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include
             the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There
             is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct
             business online, in a protected fashion.

             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
             c: 512.750.7234
             STRATFOR
             www.stratfor.com
             On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

             On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote:

             Link: themeData

             Trigger

             Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers.
             Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed
             out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements
             denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released
             depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen?
             exactly when?.  With the most recent video release, Anonymous
             makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as
             releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police,
             politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels.
             The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped
             member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict
             between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an
             unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different
             operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both
             Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i
             believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do
             not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience
             with hackers.

              

             In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned
             as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their
             demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned
             right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening
             to hit back. Provide enough details so we understand who this
             guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous'
             claims of possessing revealing information on cartel members and
             operations are true, cartels will likely respond with violence
             against individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you
             mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public
             disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the
             GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i
             don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten
             Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate
             against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will
             continue their threats against any individual using online media
             WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about
             bloggers here. against the cartels.

              

             The Battle Space

             Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate
             realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere
             of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience
             geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous,
             exist solely in cyber space.  (That is not entirely true. They
             are physical people tho live in the real world. They have names
             and addresses - although most of them are likely outside of MX.)
              Anonymous' power base consists of their technical capabilities
             in hacking. Any information connected to the Internet is
             vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of
             individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population
             could be quite difficult.  Remember that most of what Anonymous
             has done are DDOS attacks.  Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big
             company with a website that brings in revenue, but it does not
             really matter if you don't run operations on the web. Los Z
             don't make much money via e-commerce.  They are also far less
             dependent on the web than the jihadists.)

             Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power
             base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members
             believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating
             through the internet. This gives an opening for people
             disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general
             dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll.
             Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify
             themselves as \"anonymous\" have any sort of serious IT
             capability. 

             The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been
             from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies.

             The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and
             Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to
             maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar
             commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money
             and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight.
             There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar
             capacity.  Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue
             and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are
             experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are
             always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence.
             While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law
             Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in
             the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media
             outlets. Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to
             cover details of their operations. ok... but that's kind of a
             red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus on the
             possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they
             have no cyber presence.

              

             Anonymous' Weapons

             Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against
             criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to
             combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly
             disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating
             anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites in
             Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous
             admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with
             guns.  The significance of a targeted information operations
             campaign by technically elite individuals can not be overlooked
             should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream media
             outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their
             operations, that they have continued to target journalists and
             bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed
             with a dead female body  more relevantly, on the body of a
             blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce cartels
             on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not
             really addressing the subheading

             As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet
             risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest
             Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to
             release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with
             Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those
             individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive
             information is limited by what is available via the Internet.
             Government computers connected to the Internet should always be
             considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the
             compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer
             networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence
             collection may not be easy to acquire.  what are you trying to
             say here? This isn't clear at all

              

             Cartel's Defense

                         A counter response to the video? by the cartels has
             yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped
             member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the
             threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter
             response? also this undermines your statements above about how
             Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the
             vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh
             Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you
             some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As
             Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the
             cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed
             for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies
             dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and
             we have good intel indicating that) they are working on
             disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can
             operate in any region of the world. Personal information
             including locations is only available if a hacker chooses to
             divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to
             figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels
             are only capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can
             physically reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of
             their own under their payroll? Stranger things have happened,
             Why not a Zetas 2.0?

                         Cartels have been known to coerce the services of
             Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the
             help of computer science majors through personal threats has
             been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?. 
             Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug
             trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical
             experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers.  While
             identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it
             is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers
             operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such
             as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources
             than cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations.
             A) How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they
             kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are
             equally difficult to track down

                         In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will
             likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with,
             brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT
             operations within Mexico \"still\"? why would we assume they
             wouldn't be?.  Individuals with alleged connections to hacker
             communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel
             members.  Narco banners and public display of violence will
             likely continue to be used to scare online media into submission
             i'm not really seeing the online media-international hacking
             group connection here.  The cruel manners in which cartels
             inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely
             encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel
             violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to be
             seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of
             the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff
             and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can
             inflict.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 20:50:49",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1481918_re-ct-discussion-anonymous-vs-cartels-.html","tristan.reed@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1483904,"Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta conflict
	in context
","   Just to build on my last comment - and I think this should be included in
   the piece - the cartels could just as easily try to intimidate would be
   sources ratting to anonymous as intimidate bloggers. Imagine if, after
   anonymous publishes a few juicy tidbits, Zetas hang a few headless bodies
   from a bridge accusing them of contributing to anonymous? True or not,
   cartels can intimidate both sides of the information flow and the sources
   may be more vulnerable than anonymous themselves.

   Still think a discussion of Anonymous and source handling would be pretty
   cool.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Ben West\" <ben.west@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 5:42:42 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 4:45:43 PM
   Subject: Re: S-weekly for Comment - Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta
   conflict        in context

   On 11/1/11 1:11 PM, scott stewart wrote:

      Placing the Anonymous vs. Zeta Conflict in Context

     On Oct. 31, the online activist collective Anonymous posted a message to
     the internet  in which it stated that it was continuing with its
     campaign against the Mexican criminal cartels and their
     governmentsupporters despite the inherent danger.

      

     The messageurged inexperienced activists who might not be practicing
     proper online security measures to abstain from participating. It also
     urged individuals associated with Anonymous to not conduct physical
     pamphlet drops, participate in protests, wear or purchase Guy Fawkes
     masks, or use Guy Fawkes imagery in their internet or physical world
     activities.[Is this universally or just in Mexico?  The former points to
     problems with LE cracking down on them, the latter specifically to
     cartel retribution]  Guy Fawkes was British Catholic conspirator who was
     involved in a plot to bomb the British Parliament in 1605, and who has
     become somewhat of an Anarchist icon in the United Kingdom. The British
     celebrate Guy Fawkes Day each year on Nov. 5, and the day has special
     meaning for the anarchists.  

      

     It is not coincidental then, that in their Oct. 6 video, Anonymous set
     Nov. 5 as the deadline for Los Zetas to release the Anonymous associate
     who was allegedly kidnapped in Veracruz by Los Zetas. The Anonymous
     associate was reportedly abducted during an Anonymous leaflet campaign
     called Operation Paperstorm.

      

     The Oct. 31message acknowledged that the operation against Los Zetas,
     dubbed a**# OpCartela** is dangerous and noted that the collective would
     be assembling a hand-picked group of known and trusted associates to
     participate in a special task force to execute the operation.[hahahaha,
     this says something about leadership] It asked supporters to use a
     software widget[WC. is this the correct term?] they had developed in
     order to anonymously pass information pertaining to drug trafficking to
     the task force, which will then distribute it. 

      

     With Nov. 5, approaching, and at least some elements of Anonymous not
     backing down on their threats to Los Zetas, we thought it would be
     useful to provide some context to the present conflict between Anonymous
     and Los Zetas and to also address some of its potential implications.

      

     Context

      

     First it issignificant to understand that the physical? geographic?
     epicenter of this event is Veracruz, which  has been a very busy place
     over the past few months in terms of Mexicoa**s cartel wars. The port
     city also serves as a critical transportation hub for the narcotics
     smuggling activities of the Los Zetas cartel. Because of this, Stratfor
     has identified Veracruz as [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111024-mexican-drug-war-update-polarization-continues
     ] a bellweather city thatwill help determine the trajectory of the Los
     Zetas cartel in the coming months. 

      

     One of the big recent developments in Veracruz was the Sinaloa
     cartela**s push into the Zeta stronghold using the [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-mexico-security-memo-zetas-defensive-veracruz
     ] Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG), which using the name
     Matazetas (Zeta killers) conducted some high-profile body dumps of over
     50 alleged low-level Zeta operatives on Sept. 20 and 22.  On Oct. 25,
     Mexican Marines arrested Carlos Arturo Pitalua-Carillo, a**El Bam
     Bam,a** who was Los Zetas plaza boss in Veracruz.  This means that in
     Veracruz at the present time, Los Zetas are feeling pressure from both
     the Government of Mexico and the CJNG.

      

     Into this dynamic flow, we had the Anonymous internet collective begin
     to take action in Veracruz in August. In response to what Anonymous saw
     as the state of Veracruz supporting the Los Zetas cartel, they launched
     Operation Paperstorm, in which activists who associated themselves with
     the Anonymous collective distributed leaflets throughout Veracruz
     claiming the state government supports Los Zetas.  They conducted major
     leaflet distributions on Aug. 13, 20, and 29. They also released videos
     to the internet on Aug. 26 and 29, condemning the State of Veracruz.
     (According to the Oct. 6 Anonymous video, Los Zetas allegedly kidnapped
     one of the activists involved in Operation Paperstorm.)

      

     Activities outside of Veracruz have also played a part in setting the
     stage. On Sept. 13, two people were tortured and killed and their bodies
     hung from a pedestrianoverpass in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas state.  Signs
     left with the bodies signified that Los Zetas had killed the pair
     because they had posted information pertaining to Los Zetas on blogs
     that specialize in reporting on the Mexican cartels. On Sept 26, the
     body of Marisol Macias Casteneda was found beheaded in a park in Nuevo
     Laredo.   Macias who worked for a local newspaper allegedly posted on
     cartel blogs using the nickname a**Laredo Girl.a** A message found with
     her body noted that she was killed by Los Zetas due to her online
     activities.

      

     Following the death of Laredo Girl, Anonymous claimed responsibility for
     a distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack conducted against the
     official website of the state of Veracruz. Although she was killed by
     Los Zetas in Nuevo Laredo Tamaulipas, Anonymous said their attack on the
     Veracruz state website was because of the death of Laredo Girl. [can you
     attempt to explain why they linked it with veracruz?]

      

     It is also important to recognize that some members of Anonymous [again
     I hate referring to Anonymous as one entity] was also unhappy with the
     State of Veracruz over the decision of the state to prosecute two
     individuals who had posted false kidnapping reports on Twitter on Aug.
     25. The false reports alleged that a group of children had been abducted
     from a Veracruz school and the panic caused by the report allegedly
     resulted in some two dozen traffic accidents as terrified parents rushed
     to the school to check o n their children. The so-called a**twitter
     terroristsa** were initially charged with offenses that could have
     carried a 30-year sentence. Those involved in this campaign from
     Anonymous, which claims absolute freedom of speech on the internet as
     one of its foundational principles, took umbrage with this stiff penalty
     for the Twitter case a** especially because it stood in stark contrast
     with the impunity many cartel figures enjoy in Mexico. 

      

      

     Following the Oct. 6 release of the video in which Anonymous threatened
     Los Zetas if they did not release the kidnapped anonymous activist,
     Stratfor began to focus on the story, and in light of the approaching
     Nov. 5 deadline, decided to publish an, [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111028-mexicos-cartels-draw-online-activists-ire
     ] analysis of the topic, which was released on Oct. 28.  

      

     Following the release of our analysis, the topic has received a great
     deal of media coverage. This publicity has generated a very interesting
     response from Anonymous -- one that emphasizes the fast that it is a
     collective of people and not an organization.  As some
     Anonymousactivists were backing off the issue, erasing online user
     accounts[does this mean accounts of people in support of the attack?],
     suggesting that the operation against Los Zetas had been a hoax and
     claiming that no activist had been kidnapped, other activists suggested
     that the campaign should be suspended. Still other activists became more
     strident and determined in their posts, urging that the campaign
     continue. Since Anonymous is a collective, activists can pick and choose
     which actions they will participate in. that means in his case that
     those activists who want to refrain from the campaign will and those who
     want to participate will continue it.  [i see how this paragraph fits
     into your analysis the way you have it written, but I think it might go
     better at the front.  You could use the 'anonymous discussion' as a
     trigger, explain it's \"collective\" qualities and then go into the rest
     of the analysis.  This way I feel much less bad about how we refer to
     'anonymous']

      

     This will to continue was manifested[something is off in the previous
     part of the sentence] on Oct. 29, the personal website of Gustavo
     RosarioTorres, the former attorney general of the Mexican state of
     Tobasco was hacked and defaced with a message from Anonymous Mexico
     stating that Rosario was aZeta.  It was also reflected in the tone of
     the Oct. 31 message. Some activists associated with Anonymous clearly
     feel compelled to continue with the campaign due to the outpouring[WC. 
     Did they really get an outpouring? seemed like they got a lot of
     criticism and also support for going against the cartels] of public
     support they received in the wake of the media coverage. According to
     the Oct 31. Video statement: (did we see specific examples of \"public
     support\" or are we just going off of the youtube statement CLAIMING that
     they got lots of support?)

      

     a**we received many expressions of support and solidarity as well as the
     voices of people crying for help. We must remember that we are on the
     side of the people, and we cannot let down the people, especially in
     critical moments like the one they currently live in.a**

      

     We therefore anticipate that some Anonymous activists will continue the
     campaign. We also believe that Los Zetas will respond.

      

     Revenge of the Sith (Yes Kamran, I agree with Isa that Star Wars is
     better than Star Trek. What's Star Trek?) 

      

     The variouscartel groups in Mexico have long used the internet as a
     place to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even
     degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of them torturing,
     executing and beheading members of opposing cartels. They also
     frequently monitor narco blogs and sometimeseven post on them.  As
     demonstrated by the blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo in September, Los
     Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary capability to trace
     online activity to people in thephysical world. It is not known if they
     employ their own team of dedicated cyber experts or if they rely on
     sources within the Mexican government a** although the most likely
     answer is probably a little of both.  [what about just old-fashioned
     human intelligence?  Many people discuss blogger identities both online
     and offline, something they could've picked up without network-based
     forensics.  'My brother blogs about...' and on from there.  Or by
     tracing the information the blogger had in the real world, and
     eventually getting back to the blogger]

   Tristan was talking about how the cartels were even kidnapping computer
   science students and forcing them to track anonymous down. Need to check
   with him on specifics though

      

      

     In past Anonymous actions, like the Dec. 2010 attack against Pay Pal
     following the Wikileaks case, governments in the U.S. and the UK have
     arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly
     participated in the attack. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of
     activists associated with Anonymousactions conducted against the Turkish
     government for its efforts to establish a national internet filtering
     system. [Need something to make a point here, maybe something like:] 
     The reality is that there is no such thing as anonymity, on the internet
     or otherwise.  Any action leaves some trail, whether digitial or
     physical.  In the same way that hackers from Anonymous develop exploits
     to access confidential information, law enforcement agencies and even
     cartels could get around encryption, examine patterns of activity and
     investigate leads that in the end identify a real person behind a
     computer. 

      

     Los Zetas, like the other Mexican cartels, do not take affronts lightly.
     Even if Anonymous is not able to provide information that will damage
     Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that this group has
     decided to challenge Los Zetas publicly will result in some sort of
     response. The big question is: do theypossess the capability to
     effectively trace the organizers of the Anonymousaction against them?

      

     One problem with an entity such as Anonymous is that it is intentionally
     amorphous a** it is also as transnational as the internet, and it would
     not be surprising if many of those chosen to participate in the
     operation against Los Zetas are located outside of Mexico in locations
     such as the U.S. and Europe which are outside the immediate reach of Los
     Zetas.(the US is not out of reach, at least not on the border:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111005-mexico-security-memo-defining-cross-border-violence)

      

     But the amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way.  If
     Los Zetas pick up and execute some random patrons from an internet cafe,
     behead them and place Guy Fawkesmasks on their heads, it will be very
     difficult to prove that they were not  associated with  Anonymous.  As
     Anonymous noted in their Oct. 31 video, this is dangerous business.(it
     would certainly be within the cartel's capacity to kill innocents and
     blame anonymous in the attempt to intimidate them into stopping their
     activity)

      

      

     The Big Picture

      

     One thing to watch as the Anonymous operation continues is the way in
     which the Mexican public reacts. Many people in the Mexican middle and
     upper classes have been deeply affected by the criminal cartels and
     theviolence the practice. We talk to many people in Mexico who are
     fearful of being kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like
     Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen are being caught in
     a terrible bind. On one hand, they are receiving ever-increasing
     extortion demands from the cartels, while at the same time their
     business revenues are dwindling because people are afraid to go out due
     to the violence associated with those same cartels. This is forcing many
     businessmen[enterprises?] out of business. It is also creating a great
     deal of frustration and resentment.

      

     At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries
     in the world for journalists, and many media organizations practice
     heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the
     September blogger killings some of the narco blogs, like Blog del Narco,
     have also exhibited strong signs of fear inspired self-censorship.  
     This means that the legitimate press is not able to be of any real aid
     to the Mexican people.

      

     Mexican citizens are also frustrated with their government, which is
     well-known for corruption.  This is the sentiment feeding Anonymousa**
     original campaign in Veracruz.  This frustration has lead some people to
     begin to talk about

     vigilante groups to fight the cartels a** though that has been attempted
     before in Mexico and as we saw in the case of [link
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090714_mexico_la_familia_michoacana_expands_its_attacks
     ] La Familia MichoacA!n, which originally began as such a vigilante
     group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.

      

     This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely
     on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for
     assistance, they may embrace Anonymous and come to view its form of
     cyber vigilantism as an outlet for their frustration -- and a perceived
     safe way to pass oninformation pertaining to cartel activities.  If this
     occurs, we may see people not just in Veracruz and other Zeta controlled
     areas providing information to Anonymous, but citizens from all over the
     country.

      

     Also, in the same way that cartels leak information togovernments in an
     effort to use them as weapons against their rivals, we could also very
     well see groups such as the Sinaloa cartel provide information on Los
     Zetas to Anonymous. This of course would provide even more reason for
     Los Zetas to strike out against the activist collective.

      

     If the Anonymous information campaign does indeed take off, and if
     Anonymous is attacked by Los Zetas, the activists could resort to
     releasing sensitive information to the U.S. Drug Enforcement
     Administration in an attempt to damage Los Zetas. This would be an
     incredible irony in light of the way Anonymous has viewed itself as an
     opponent of the U.S. government in cases like Wikileaks. (Anonymous has
     made it clear that the value they provide is a safe and private medium
     through which to pass this damning information. Their stated priority is
     to publicize information that people send to them. But, do they have a
     way to protect their sources? They likely don't have much collective
     experience in source handling. I imagine a lot of the details they get
     could put their sources in serious trouble. If I were a semi-smart
     Mexican who knew some super detailed information on the cartels, I would
     think long and hard before handing it over to these guys. This may be a
     separate piece entirely, but I think we need a discussion on source
     handling and how good hackers don't necessarily make good intelligence
     agents.)

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   STRATFOR

   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967

   www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-01 23:46:55",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1483904_re-s-weekly-for-comment-placing-the-anonymous-vs-zeta.html","ben.west@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1495201,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
","   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marc Lanthemann\" <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-14 20:55:23",1,"2012-02-28 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1495201_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1495374,"INDIA/SOUTH ASIA-Xinhua 'Roundup': Concerns Rise About Excessive Use of Police Force in Dealing With Occupy Protesters
","   Xinhua 'Roundup': Concerns Rise About Excessive Use of Police Force in
   Dealing With Occupy Protesters
   Xinhua \"Roundup\": \"Concerns Rise About Excessive Use of Police Force in
   Dealing With Occupy Protesters\" - Xinhua
   Thursday November 3, 2011 21:09:48 GMT
   TAMPA, the United States, Nov. 3 (Xinhua) -- The peace that existed
   between U.S. law enforcement authorities and the Occupy movement is now
   over as police in many U.S. cities broke into violent clashes with
   peaceful protesters, leading to concerns about the excessive use of police
   force.

   About 30 people were arrested Thursday in Oakland, California, as police
   in riot gear fired tear gas and flashed grenades to clear a downtown
   street, where supporters of the Occupy Wall Street movement gathered.As
   many as 70 demonstrators have been arrested so far in Oakland since police
   first began using tear gas and beanbag grenades last Tuesday in an empty
   building commandeered by demonstrators. About 40 people were subsequently
   arrested on various charges.The latest arrests were made after Occupy
   Oakland protesters called for a day of general strikes and attempted
   barricade of the Port of Oakland on Wednesday, both were intended to be
   non-violent.Scott Olsen, a 24 year-old former U.S. Marine who had served
   in Afghanistan, has now become a symbol of the Occupy protesters' cause
   after he was wounded in the head from a police projectile in Oakland on
   October 25.Now recovering from his head wound, Olsen has seen Occupy Wall
   Street protesters, and other Occupy demonstrators making the phrase \"We
   are all Scott Olsen\" a mantra to be chanted, as well as a slogan to be put
   on protest signs.As criticism arose from these clashes, Howard Jordan,
   chief of Oakland Police Department for Interim Police, issued a statement
   last Friday assuring the publi c that all allegations of misconduct and
   excessive use of force are being thoroughly investigated.The Occupy
   protesters have modeled themselves after the late Indian religious,
   social, and political leader Mohandas K. Gandhi, who led nationwide
   non-violent movement against the British rulers in the first half of the
   20th century.Despite this, in less than a month, clashes between police
   and demonstrators have occurred in not only Oakland, but also Nashville,
   Tennessee; Portland, Oregon, and Atlanta, Georgia.In California's state
   capital, Sacramento, Cindy Sheehan, a noted anti-war dissenter, and 20
   other protesters were detained in mid-October for not leaving a city park,
   according to the Sacramento Police Department.\"(Sacramento) Mayor (Kevin)
   Johnson understands the frustrations expressed by Occupy Sacramento and
   respects the group 's commitment to political change through peaceful
   demonstration and the democratic process,\" Joaquin McPeek, spokesman for
   the Mayor , told Xinhua.Nonetheless, \"the City has a duty to maintain a
   safe and healthy environment in its parks. The Mayor is not in favor of
   allowing certain, special groups to make exceptions to City ordinances,\"
   McPeek added.Over two dozen protesters have been arrested in Nashville,
   Tennessee, where they took over the city's Legislative Plazaare. Now,
   protesters are defying a 10pm-6am curfew, after a local judge said they
   should not be legally jailed after being arrested.Elli Whiteway,
   spokesperson for Occupy Nashville, revealed Monday that the local chapter
   of the American Civil Liberties Union has filed a federal lawsuit
   \"alleging that the (previously made) arrests and new regulations were
   violations of our First Amendment rights.\"About 30 Occupy protesters were
   arrested in Portland, Oregon on Sunday after clashes with the local
   police. Ten more demonstrators were arrested on Tuesday.Before they were
   arrested, they chanted \"the whole world is watching, the whole world is
   watching,\" a slogan used in the Chicago demonstrations in 1968 when the
   city hosted the Democratic National Convention. Blue-shirted,
   white-helmeted police physically struck many demonstrators with clubs and
   sticks and opening cans of tear gas to disseminate the protesters.In
   Denver, Colorado, black-helmeted, clear-shield clad police officers used
   on Sunday pepper spray and pepper balls on a crowd of Occupy
   demonstrators, arresting 20 in total.Even Tampa, Florida, where
   demonstrations have been comparatively mild, lost its status as the only
   site with no arrests in previous weeks as police made 10 arrests.\"It can
   be difficult for law enforcement to deal with civil protests, but officers
   should be well trained and follow that training to manage and respect the
   constitutionally respected rights of speech and assembly,\" said John
   Dingfelder, an attorney for the ACLU Mid-Florida Regional Office in
   Tampa.The U.S. Department of Justice (USDOJ) rec eives over 1,000
   complaints of police conduct every year, said USDOJ spokesman Xochitl
   Hinojosa, who refused to reveal the number of complaints regarding the
   excessive use of police force on Occupy protesters.\"If anyone wishes to
   contact us to report an incident, they can find our contact information on
   our web site and we will respond in writing,\" Hinojosa added.(Description
   of Source: Beijing Xinhua in English -- China's official news service for
   English-language audiences (New China News Agency))

   Material in the World News Connection is generally copyrighted by the
   source cited. Permission for use must be obtained from the copyright
   holder. Inquiries regarding use may be directed to NTIS, US Dept. of
   Commerce.
","2011-11-04 11:39:53",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1495374_india-south-asia-xinhua-roundup-concerns-rise-about.html","dialogbot@smtp.stratfor.com","","dialog-list@stratfor.com",""
1497330,"[alpha] Occupy Wall Street (DHS analysis)
","3","2011-10-25 18:04:51",1,"2012-02-29 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1497330_-alpha-occupy-wall-street-dhs-analysis-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com","attach/13/13637_DHS IP Special.pdf"
1500429,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged \"Anonymous\" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise \"anonymous\"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
","2011-11-10 19:47:39",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1500429_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1521269,"Re: INSIGHT - Gulen, Dogan Media Group, AKP
","   I have a few senior contacts within Hurriyet. Will ping them on this as
   well.

   ---

   Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Emre Dogru <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
   Date: Mon, 18 Jan 2010 11:29:57 +0200
   To: Reva Bhalla<bhalla@stratfor.com>; Kamran Bokhari<bokhari@stratfor.com>
   Subject: INSIGHT - Gulen, Dogan Media Group, AKP
   From the source in Hurriyet whom I met this past Saturday. A guy from the
   Dogan Media Group (I guess from the finance desk) later joined us. I got
   to know the columnist from the alumni of our Faculty. This was the first
   time that I met both.

   Hurriyet guy used to have (maybe he still does) good contacts within Gulen
   Movement (called Community). Then he got out of the community. He says
   that the hierarchy within the comm is extremely rigid. They work like in
   cell-organization. I am responsible for five persons. Another guy is
   responsible for five persons like me and so on. They are all asked about
   our \"protegee\"s financial and health situation by senior Gulenists.

   There is no other organization like this to challenge them. They are very
   very powerful within the police. And (this is just a personal opinion)
   they are working on the judiciary system to have more Gulenist judges.
   Gulenists never talk about politics with outsiders. It is almot impossible
   to get what they really think. They can discuss with you but only to a
   certain point. Then you're out. The real financial base is small-scale
   Anatolian businessmen and small shop owners. Junior Gulenists regularly
   visit them to collect the money.

   Concerning AKP - Gulen relationship: Gulen officially supports a political
   party for the first time. However, Erdogan doesn't like him (or hates
   him). The entire relationship is based on mutual interests. Gulen needs a
   powerful political party, AKP needs broad political support. They had a
   major dispute over Ergenekon. At a certain point, Erdogan thought that
   things might get screwed and wanted to back down a bit. But Gulen insisted
   on deepening the probe. In the past, the entire rhetoric of the comm. was
   based on \"tolerance\". But now, they don't show mercy for those who don't
   support them. They show target and destroy. Community acts more
   aggressively.

   After the Erdogan - Aydin Dogan spat followed by the tax fine, Dogan media
   group now is in big big trouble. Aydin Dogan might be even sent to the
   jail. In a month or so, all newspapers (except for Hurriyet) owned by
   Dogan will be sold. The client is decided: Koza Group. Koza Group is
   Gulenist and responsible for managing the budget of Gulen Comm. which is
   earmarked for media operations. The most prominent chief editor of Turkey
   (Hurriyet) was replaced by another guy after 25 years. Also, all the
   executive boards of these newspapers are being shuffled. Dogan family
   members are being replaced by 'professionals'. Tax and other things are
   just parts of this grand strategy. After this operation, around 70-80% of
   the Turkish media will be owned by Gulen. There is only one month left. (I
   asked why secular business groups don't react) They all care about the
   money and not really willing to have a war with AKP.

 --
 Emre Dogru
 STRATFOR
 +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
","2010-01-18 14:05:41",1,"2012-03-14 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1521269_re-insight-gulen-dogan-media-group-akp-.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","","bhalla@stratfor.com,bokhari@stratfor.com,emre.dogru@stratfor.com",""
1523735,"Re: Hurriyet Daily News ve Stratfor isbirligi
","   Murat Bey, anlasma uzerinde ne gibi degisilikler yapilmasi gerektigini
   dusundugunuzu gorusmeyi ben de isterim. Dilerseniz email ya da telefon
   uzerinden, dilerseniz uygun oldugunuzda Istanbul'da bir araya gelebiliriz.
   Kolayliklar,
   Emre Dogru

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Mehmet Murat Yetkin\" <murat.yetkin@hdn.com.tr>
   To: \"Emre Dogru\" <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>, \"taylan bilgic\"
   <taylanbilgic@gmail.com>
   Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2011 4:16:19 PM
   Subject: RE: Hurriyet Daily News ve Stratfor isbirligi

   DeA:*erli Emre bey,

   SAP:zleAA*meyi okudum. BU sAP:zleAA*menin HA 1/4rriyet Daily News
   gazetesinin AS:A:+-karlarA:+- doA:*rultusunda iyileAA*tirilmesi
   zorunluA:*u olduA:*u kanaatine vardA:+-m. Bu konuyu da gAP:rA 1/4AA*mek
   isterim.

   Selamlar,

   Murat Yetkin

    

   From: Emre Dogru [mailto:emre.dogru@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2011 9:34 AM
   To: Mehmet Murat Yetkin
   Subject: Re: Hurriyet Daily News ve Stratfor isbirligi

    

   Murat Bey, ekte HDN ve Stratfor arasinda imzalanmis olan anlasmayi
   gonderiyorum. Fikirlerinizi beklerim.

    

   Selamlar,

   Emre Dogru

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Mehmet Murat Yetkin\" <murat.yetkin@hdn.com.tr>
   To: \"Emre Dogru\" <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, June 15, 2011 2:21:38 PM
   Subject: RE: Hurriyet Daily News ve Stratfor isbirligi

   Merhaba Emre bey,

   A*ok teAA*ekkA 1/4r ederim.

   A:DEGAA*birliA:*i anlaAA*mamA:+-zA:+-n sizdeki kopyasA:+-nA:+- bana
   gAP:nderebilir misiniz lA 1/4tfen?

   Onun A 1/4zerinde konuAA*mak daha uygun olacaktA:+-r.

   Selamlar,

   Murat Yetkin

    

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Emre Dogru [mailto:emre.dogru@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Wednesday, June 15, 2011 12:58 PM
   To: Mehmet Murat Yetkin
   Subject: Hurriyet Daily News ve Stratfor isbirligi

    

   Merhaba Murat Bey,

   Ben Stratfor adli Amerikan uluslararasi politika arastirma sirketinin
   Turkiye ve bolge sorumlusu Emre Dogru. Oncelikle HDN'deki yeni goreviniz
   dolayisiyla sizi tebrik eder ve basarilar dilerim.

   HDN ve Stratfor arasinda David Bey'in calisma doneminde kurulmus bir
   isbirligi anlasmasi mevcut. Ben sahsen HDN'de calisan arkadaslarla cesitli
   vesilelerle gorusuyor ve fikir alisverisinde bulunuyorum. Strafor yonetimi
   ve CEO'su George Friedman bu isbirligine deger veriyor ve surdurulmesini
   arzuluyor. Eger sizin icin de uygun olursa, Istanbul'da oldugunuz bir gun
   hem sizinle tanismak, hem de iki sirket arasindaki isbirliginin icerigini
   ayrintilariyla paylasmak isterim.

   En iyi dileklerimle,
   Emre Dogru

 --

 Emre Dogru

  

 STRATFOR

 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514

 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468

 emre.dogru@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-29 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1523735_re-hurriyet-daily-news-ve-stratfor-isbirligi-.html","emre.dogru@stratfor.com","","taylanbilgic@gmail.com,murat.yetkin@hdn.com.tr",""
1526669,"Insight question from our CANVAS source
","Our CANVAS source has a question about Kurds in Iraq. He helps us a LOT 
and I'd like the three of you to help me with this question as soon as 
you can. It is fairly simple and Yerevan should be able to answer it 
pretty easily:

1. How is the autonomy of Kurds in Iraq regulated? Are there laws? What 
kind of rules they have that set them up apart from the rest of Iraq?

2. How are the Kurds organized territorially in Iraq and who wrote the 
administrative rules on this division? Was this written by the 
Americans, is it recent?


-- 
Marko Papic
Senior Analyst
STRATFOR
+ 1-512-744-4094 (O)
+ 1-512-905-3091 (C)
221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
Austin, TX 78701 - USA
www.stratfor.com
@marko_papic
","2011-05-23 16:36:21",1,"2012-06-18 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1526669_insight-question-from-our-canvas-source-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,emre.dogru@stratfor.com,yerevan.saeed@stratfor.com",""
1529211,"Re: Hurriyet Daily News ve Stratfor isbirligi
","","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-29 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1529211_re-hurriyet-daily-news-ve-stratfor-isbirligi-.html","emre.dogru@stratfor.com","","murat.yetkin@hdn.com.tr","attach/122/122089_20110615124352675.pdf"
1532300,"Gulen movement: Turkey's third power
","Gulen movement: Turkey's third power

   +------------------------------------------------------------------------+
   |  Key Points                                                            |
   |                                                                        |
   |  * Turkey's Islamist Gulen movement, while a powerful political force, |
   |    is largely an unfamiliar entity to the West.                        |
   |                                                                        |
   |  * The movement's extensive operations in various fields, including    |
   |    education and media, give it unique access and influence.           |
   |                                                                        |
   |  * While secular Turks and the military continue to have serious       |
   |    reservations about the movement, its relationship with other        |
   |    Islamists is also complicated.                                      |
   +------------------------------------------------------------------------+

   Despite its political influence in Turkey, the Gulen movement has a low
   profile in the West. Jane's charts the group's rise to prominence,
   examines its current activities and assesses its relationship with secular
   Turks, as well as the country's military and other Islamists.

   Turkey's Fethullah Gulen Community (FGC), also known as the Gulen movement
   after its founder and leader Fethullah Gulen, a Turkish Muslim preacher,
   often escapes scholarly attention. Yet no analysis of Turkey is complete
   without due attention paid to the FGC; a highly co-ordinated and
   centralised movement with many well-positioned followers, known as
   Gulenists. Some Turks deridingly refer to the movement as 'F-type' or
   'Fethullahci' (followers of Fethullah).

   According to FGC members, the organisation controls millions of dollars
   and has many organisations, including a network of high schools across the
   world that serve as signpost FGC institutions. In addition, the FGC owns
   universities, banks, non-governmental organisations and television
   networks in Turkey, as well as other countries. What is more, the FGC
   appears to have influence over the Turkish National Police (Emniyet),
   including the police's powerful domestic intelligence wing. The FGC's
   political power renders it a taboo topic in Turkey where many people shy
   away from discussing the group publicly. The Turks have a polarised view
   of Gulen: some see him as a political leader such as Iran's Ayatollah
   Khomeini, while others view him as the face of modern, non-violent, even
   reformed Islam. This and the FGC's political power makes the organisation
   worthy of closer scrutiny in an effort to map out its structure, global
   reach, message, political influence and future in Turkey.

  Background

   The FGC is considered a modernist off-shoot of Sufi Nurcu tariqat
   (religious order) in Turkey. The movement aims to transform Turkey through
   conservative social values. Many academics describe the FGC as a neo-Nurcu
   movement. Gulen, a spiritual and charismatic preacher who has been known
   to cry during interviews and public sermons, is the founder and leader of
   his own branch of Nurcu Islam. The movement emerged in the late 1970s in
   Izmir, coalescing around Gulen's personality in the late 1980s in big
   cities. Initially, Gulen espoused a tactical view of democracy in Turkey,
   saying that in order to reach the ideal Muslim society \"every method and
   path is acceptable [including] lying to people\". Gulen added that in
   reaching the movement's final goal, \"service on behalf of the movement
   would be discreet and quiet\", and that this stance constituted the
   \"founding philosophy of his movement\".

   In the late 1990s, Gulen clashed with Turkey's secular democracy. At this
   time, Turkey had a brief experience with Islamist government. The Welfare
   Party (Refah Partisi: RP) came to power in a short-lived coalition
   government in 1996. Subsequently, Turkey's secular forces, including the
   military, forced the RP to step down. Following the demise of the RP
   government, Turkey cracked down against Islamist movements and tariqats,
   including FGC, bringing a court case against Gulen on grounds that \"he was
   working to overthrow secular government in Turkey\".

   In 1998, Gulen was forced to leave Turkey to avoid prosecution on charges
   he was involved with anti-secular activities. He took refuge in the United
   States and starting running his organisation from the suburbs of New
   Jersey and then Pennsylvania through senior aides in various outlets he
   controlled.

   In the US, Gulen's message subsequently went through a significant
   transformation. He rejected some of his earlier rhetoric on dismantling
   the secular state, turning instead to emphasising tolerance in Islam, as
   well as interfaith dialogue with Judaism and Christianity, and shunned
   violence. In the late 1990s, he told his male followers their wives could
   uncover their hair. While part of the Islamic law, he said this issue of
   head covering was futurat (among the details of Islamic jurisprudence).
   This stance widened his appeal for the liberal Turks who thought of the
   Gulen movement as a more tolerable version of Islamic fundamentalism.
   Although the majority of Gulenist women continued to cover their heads,
   this verdict has sweetened his appeal for students in Gulen's network of
   schools across the world, as well as middle-class conservatives.

  Global network

   The precise number of FGC members is difficult to estimate since some
   publicly deny affinity or membership with the movement. They do not
   mention his name openly, but may refer to him as 'hocaefendi' (master
   hodja) or 'he'.

   Although the movement emerged from Turkey, today it has a global reach.
   Gulen continues to live in the US and obtained US residency in 2008. Since
   Gulen's arrival there, FGC is known to have supported the election
   campaigns of various US politicians. It has also sought their blessing by
   asking them to appear at FGC events. For instance, Hillary Clinton is
   known to have attended FGC events in the US, including a September 2007
   Ramadan breakfast organised by the Gulenist Turkish Cultural Center in New
   York City. The FGC's new found base in the US has earned Washington enmity
   inside Turkey, with some secular Turks, including many in the military,
   concluding that the movement is backed by the US as a form of moderate
   Islam to dilute Turkish secularism. Gulen and other FGC leaders'
   freewheeling presence in the US is a major source of anti-US feeling
   within the ranks of the Turkish military.

   The FGC exerts influence globally through means of modern communication,
   including its flagship newspaper and television networks, respectively
   Zaman (Time), and Samanyolu (Milky Way) - galactic, cosmic and temporal
   names are tell-tale signs of FGC institutions. The organisation has
   numerous other media arms, including Ebru TV (Water Marble) in the US, as
   well as Mehtap (Moonlight) TV and Cihan (Universe) news agency, and
   Today's Zaman, an English language newspaper that mirrors Zaman and serves
   as the FGC's window to the English-speaking world. Zaman also publishes
   local versions in a number of countries, including the US, Turkmenistan,
   Bulgaria and Azerbaijan.

   Many organisations fall under the FGC umbrella, including hundreds of
   boarding schools in Turkey, as well as the US, Europe, Central Asia, the
   Middle East and Africa. These schools provide full scholarships, excellent
   facilities and high-quality education, training the children of the elite
   in the third world and the children of FGC members in the West. In Turkey,
   the schools perform both functions. The movement also has universities,
   including Fatih University in Istanbul, and Virginia International
   University in the US, a 'Gulen-sourced' school according to an FGC
   website. The schools represent the movement's charity arm, an FGC
   trademark. Its schools and other public arms are funded by regular
   donations from FGC members.

   In Turkey, the FGC appeals to students across various educational
   institutions. First come high schools, including elite FGC Samanyolu High
   School in Ankara, which offer scholarships and stipends. At least some of
   these students are known to join the FGC. The movement also runs cramming
   schools, such as Turkey-wide FEM and ANAFEN, preparing mostly poorer high
   school students and FGC sympathiser students through the necessary
   cramming practice for college entrance exams. This is done often in
   dormitories and again with full scholarships. Graduates of the cramming
   schools usually go on to become lifelong sympathisers, members or workers
   of the movement. The FGC also runs boarding homes (Isikevi-light houses)
   for poorer college and high school students who are then provided with
   stipends and scholarships. The FGC schools, cramming schools and Isikevis
   fall under a centralised organisation. The FGC schools and educational
   endeavours are academically thriving environments and also provide a soft
   passageway into the movement. Teachers and FGC member students extoll the
   virtues of Islam in non-Muslim countries and virtues of the FGC movement
   in Muslim countries, pulling in more members.

   A number of wealthy Turks, and many mid- and small-sized business owners
   organised under the Turkish Industrialists Confederation (TUSKON), form
   the FGC's business arm. The movement also has financial institutions,
   including Bank Asya that provides interest-free Islamic banking; insurance
   company Isik Sigorta (Light Insurance); and investment arms, including
   Asya Finans (Asia Finance), a finance firm. FGC has think-tanks, including
   Washington-based Rumi Forum, and is known to be supporting programmes on
   Turkey at a number of prominent Washington think-tanks. Finally, the FGC
   has global charities, such as Kimse Yok mu (Is Anybody Out There), which
   provides disaster relief and religious giving across the world.

   It is possible to think of the FGC structure as three concentric circles
   comprising of sympathisers, members and workers. The outermost circle has
   sympathisers, including people who attend weekly discussion sessions held
   at FGC homes and others, such as the high school students, who receive FGS
   services and charity benefits. The middle circle has members, including
   businessmen whose donations support the outer circle's activities, as well
   as pay for the salaries of the inner circle. This inner circle includes
   workers, such as teachers, journalists, lobbyists and executives who work
   in FGC schools, think-tanks, lobby and business groups, and media arms,
   among others. The workers are mostly committed members of the movement.
   Some of them seem to have joined the FGC through the group's cramming
   schools, high schools and boarding homes in the 1970s and the 1980s when
   Gulen was a preacher in Turkish mosques. Known as the Altin Nesil (Golden
   Generation), this group can be considered Gulenist disciples.

   The three circles are enmeshed into one another. For example, FGC
   businesses advertise heavily on FGC media, while FGC-owned media runs
   human interest stories and profiles of FGC sympathisers, businesses and
   schools. FGC members and sympathisers take holidays in FGC-owned hotels
   and shop at FGC-owned stores and invest in FGC financial institutions.
   Graduates of FGC cramming schools funded by FGC businesses often serve as
   teachers in FGC schools overseas. Finally, FGC media, funded by FGC
   businesses, reacts sharply to any criticism directed at Fethullah Gulen.

  One voice, two messages

   The FGC rose to global prominence in the aftermath of the 11 September
   2001 attacks in the US. The movement takes pride in promoting tolerance
   towards and inter-faith dialogue with Christianity and Judaism, which are
   considered by Muslims as faiths of the book - religions recognised by
   Islam.

   The FGC relays its brand of tolerance and ecumenical dialogue through
   conferences at prestigious institutions, FGC and non-FGC alike, as well as
   coverage in FGC media and through meetings between Gulen and Jewish and
   Christian religious leaders. The FGC takes the Islam-wide characteristic
   of tolerance towards Christianity and Judaism, marketing it as an
   exclusive trademark of the movement.

   The FGC's three messages of ecumenism, interfaith dialogue and tolerance
   matured after Gulen left Turkey for the US to escape political
   persecution. Since then, the movement has explicitly stayed away from
   anti-Americanism, a telltale sign of Islamist movements globally. The
   movement's three messages, communicated through English language outlets
   such as Today's Zaman have been welcome in the West, including in the US
   and the UK. The FGC promotes inter-faith dialogue and ecumenism also in
   Turkey, sometimes to the ire of hardline Islamists.

   However, the movement's English language outlets serving the West, such as
   Today's Zaman, and Turkish language press outlets serving Turkey, such as
   Zaman, have different editorial lines on the FGC messages. While Today's
   Zaman stays loyal to this message, Zaman often strays away from it. For
   example, on 15 October 2008, Zaman ran a news story alleging that the
   current global economic downturn started when USD40 billion was
   transferred from Lehman Brothers to Israel. Although Zaman and Today's
   Zaman are twin papers, this important allegation did not find room in
   Today's Zaman. In this regard, examples hinting at two FGC voices, an
   external one for the West, and an internal one for Turkey, are plenty. On
   8 November 2008, Zaman ran a story about a Jewish family in Istanbul that
   has converted to Islam. The story suggested that the family had been
   painfully ostracised from the Turkish Jewish community, casting that
   community in an unsympathetic light. That story was also not featured in
   Today's Zaman read in the West.

   Likewise, the two papers diverged in their coverage of the 2008-09
   Israel-Gaza war. On 31 December 2008, Zaman ran a story with the headline:
   Children hauling garbage are being targeted with missiles, while this
   headline or its story was entirely missing from Today's Zaman on the same
   day, or subsequent days.

  FGC, AKP and the military

   Traditionally, the FGC has supported many political parties and stayed
   non-partisan. However, since 2001, following the establishment of the
   Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi: AKP), the
   movement has provided solid support to the AKP. While this has led many
   people to associate the movement with the AKP, that appears to be a false
   premise. Although the AKP and FGC both stand for socially conservative
   values and mix Islam and politics, they are competing political
   organisations. Moreover, there seems to be at least some ideological
   competition between the AKP and FGC. The AKP cadres view the FGC's
   singular emphasis of ecumenism and inter-faith dialogue as insincere,
   while FGC members view the AKP as a coarse movement.

   Still, the goal of holding political power in Turkey unites the FGC and
   the AKP in an alliance of convenience. For analytical purposes, it could
   be said that currently the AKP and the FGC are in a symbiotic
   co-existence. The AKP provides the FGC with an important asset, a ruling
   party that facilitates the appointment of FGC members to key bureaucratic
   positions, as well as the sheltering of FGC institutions. For example,
   during his term as Turkey's foreign minister, President Abdullah Gul
   issued a classified circular to Turkish diplomatic posts, encouraging them
   to attend events at FGC institutions and help such organisations.
   Meanwhile, the FGC provides the AKP with money, media support and voter
   mobilisation.

   Since the AKP came to power in 2002, FGC members and sympathisers are
   known to have been appointed to a number of important positions in Turkish
   government, including ministries, as well as key positions in the Turkish
   police, while many lower level and non-strategic positions in Emniyet
   remain in the hands of non-FGC people. In this regard, some in Turkey
   believe the FGC controls the technologically apt intelligence branch of
   the police, as well as the strategic personnel and overseas relations
   departments. The FGC's influence in the Emniyet and a significant part of
   Turkish domestic intelligence apparatus is a contentious issue,
   challenging the movement's claim to be a spiritual organisation. Critics
   and opponents of the FGC and the AKP, even some top brass in the Turkish
   military, fear that they are under surveillance by the FGC through the
   Turkish police. Giving credit to such claims, intelligence leaks involving
   the Turkish military often start in FGC-owned newspapers, such as Zaman.
   Meanwhile, some alarmist secular Turks assert without proof that the FGC
   is funded by the CIA to promote moderate Islam in Turkey as well as in
   Central Eurasia - it is interesting to note that in 2007, Russia started a
   crackdown on FGC infrastructure for its 'extremist' nature.

   The FGC has a tense relationship with the Turkish military. Despite its
   presence in the Emniyet and across the Turkish bureaucracy, the FGC lacks
   representation in the Turkish armed forces. This is because the Turkish
   military bi-annually reviews its staff, discharging personnel associated
   with Islamist groups and tariqats, most notably the FGC. The military's
   hardnosed attitude to FGC members has turned the FGC into its critic.
   Since 2007, FGC-owned media has been lambasting the Turkish military. This
   media has been prominently featuring allegations against the military, as
   well as leaks from Emniyet about the likely involvement of retired and
   active duty military personnel in a coup plot against the AKP government
   in the Ergenekon case, an investigation of the clandestine nationalist
   Ergenekon organisation that is currently being reviewed in a Turkish
   court. In July 2008, using intelligence files leaked from Emniyet, Zaman
   and other FGC-owned media gave prominent coverage to Ergenekon-related
   news, implicating the military's hand in the alleged coup plot.

  Turkey's third force

   Lately, while pro-AKP newspapers have shunned criticising the military,
   the FGC-owned media continues to take issue with it. This suggests
   diverging views of the Turkish military between the AKP and FGC. Whereas
   common wisdom suggests thinking of Turkey as a bipolar world of the
   'Islamist block' led by the AKP and the 'secularist block' led by the
   military, it might be useful to think of Turkey as a three-pronged country
   composed of the military, the AKP and the FGC.

   The consolidation of political and economic power in the FGC's hands and
   the movement's evolving relationship with the AKP and the Turkish military
   make such an analytical view more plausible. With its own growing base,
   the FGC might soon feel comfortable to rethink its seven-year symbiotic
   relationship with the AKP. The FGC seems to want a bigger share of Turkey.
   The movement will keep confronting the military more vigorously until it
   manages to get its members and sympathisers into the military.

   On the other hand, there are at least some signs that on the eve of
   Turkey's nationwide local elections to be held in March 2009, the FGC
   might extend limited support to parties other than the AKP in an effort to
   re-diversify its political base as a choice political strategy should the
   AKP slip politically. However, this does not mean the FGC will burn
   bridges with the AKP. Rather, looking at the benefits of a symbiotic
   relationship with a powerful political party, the movement will continue
   to support the AKP. In fact, in the unlikely event of a future showdown
   between the military and the AKP, the FGC would quickly close ranks with
   the AKP as it did in 2007 when the military issued a warning against the
   AKP on its website.

   The FGC is perhaps the best organised grass roots movement in Turkey.
   Moreover, the group has a vast social and economic organisation,
   intelligence assets, a global network and a message that appeals to the
   West, even if that message appears to be mostly for international
   consumption. The FGC is effectively a third force in Turkish politics, and
   the world will hear a lot about it in the years to come.       
","2009-11-18 01:35:26",1,"2012-03-07 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1532300_gulen-movement-turkey-s-third-power-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,emre.dogru@stratfor.com",""
1537069,"Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - some notes so far
","   no worries, Bayless. Gulenist guys loved me and I'm sure they will be
   happy to cover my wedding expenses. The only problem is that you won't be
   able to drink alcohol.

   Bayless Parsley wrote:

     that means it's going to be expensive

     Reva Bhalla wrote:

       dude im going to plan their wedding
       ----- Original Message -----
       From: \"Bayless Parsley\" <bayless.parsley@stratfor.com>
       To: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
       Cc: \"emre dogru\" <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
       Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 6:43:10 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
       Central
       Subject: Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - some notes so far

       oh and i'm sure she is just thrilled the emre pasha is road trippin'
       it with some ethnic looking american girl

       Reva Bhalla wrote:

         haha, the Albanian chick is super cute, btw. Emre Pasha has good
         taste
         ----- Original Message -----
         From: \"Bayless Parsley\" <bayless.parsley@stratfor.com>
         To: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>, \"emre dogru\"
         <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
         Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 6:39:19 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
         Central
         Subject: Re: INSIGHT - TURKEY - some notes so far

         one question: can the power of stratfor get emre laid if he ever
         ditches his albanian chick?

         Reva Bhalla wrote:

           a little anecdote i forgot to add. while we were waiting for our
           meeting at the prime minister's building, there was a young guy in
           the waiting room who was waiting for his boss who was meeting with
           Erdogan's advisor. the guy used to work for an MP and is in the
           parliament scene in Ankara. when he found out we were from
           Stratfor, he got really excited and told us about how he and his
           friend sent a letter to the parliament's head of information or
           whatever as a petition for all Turkish MPs to get Stratfor
           subscriptions. Obviously he's a big fan and this is something we
           can pursue as an institution deal. (getting the appropriate
           contact info for this).  At the AKP think tank we visited in
           Ankara today, they also told us clearly 'we know the power of
           Stratfor'. Everyone here wants to influence us one way or another.
           Turkey needs a voice in DC. THey're hoping it's us.
           ----- Original Message -----
           From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
           To: \"analysts\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
           Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2010 6:24:34 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
           Central
           Subject: INSIGHT - TURKEY - some notes so far

           Going to sum up a few meetings so far. i will go into more detail
           later when it's not 230am and not exhausted from traveling 12 hrs
           traveling between istanbul and ankara.  Emre will fill in any
           other details I've missed. We will be meeting next with two
           Turkish energy experts (send questions if you have them -- we need
           good turkey energy sources), CEO of Sabanci group (one of the
           Istanbul giants), TUSKON business association (Gulenist) and then
           on the opposite side of the political spectrum, the head of Dogan
           media, then Isbank (also a bastion for the nationalists and
           Istanbul giants)
           For the first part of my trip, Emre and I have been hanging out
           with hardcore Gulenists. We started at Zaman headquarters (Zaman
           is main Gulenist newspaper and media voice for AKP, Today's Zaman
           is the English-language daily). We met with the Editor in Chief of
           Today's Zaman and the head of Cihan news agency (which runs their
           major media outlets). Cihan is now the most powerful media outlet
           in Turkey. It used to be Hurriyet, dominated by the nationalists,
           but they're under attack (will get to that later). 
           They explicitly represented themselves as part of the 'jamaah', or
           the 'movement', as they like to call it.  The way they represent
           their agenda is that this is about democratization in Turkey,
           human rights, world peace, etc. The guy was actually quoting
           Western liberal philosophers trying to show how much in common
           they have with them in respect for these democratic values, and
           this is what's essential for Turkey's candidacy in the EU. The
           irony, they claim, is that people think because they're Islamist,
           they're fundamentalist and not modern, whereas the authoritarians
           (in their view) ie. the military, are the ones who are seen in the
           West as modern. This is what frustrates them.  So, by promoting
           this peace, love and democracy campaign, they say they are
           fighting for constitutional reform, business and political
           pluralism, civilian control over military, judicial reform, etc.
           That there is no secret agenda.  (my note -- what Emre and I
           noticed is that in all our meetings with Gulenists, they recited
           almost the same lines verbatim. they're very well rehearsed in
           selling this model. At the root of this, however, is power. The
           established elite, ie. the military, Istanbul business giants,
           etc. are being threatened by an Islamist political vehicle fueled
           by the Anatolian small-to-med business class.)  Both of the
           sources talked about how they need to raise an Anatolian business
           class to undermine the Istanbul giants (they essentially
           articulated our own theory, which was cool.).
           We discussed the Ergenekon case a lot, which gave them plenty of
           opportunity to bash the military for being so irresponsible and
           disrespectful to the civilian government. What struck us most is
           how they claim they have allies within the military, people high
           up in rank, who are disaffected with the establishment and are
           WILLING to provide leaks to the Gulenist newspapers and
           intelligence services that support these coup allegations. We
           heard the exact same story the next day at a Gulenist organization
           that we visited. More likely this is an allusion to their
           successful penetration of the military (have sent more detailed
           insight on this previously)
           We also discussed the Gulen schools that are spreading across the
           globe, expanding Turkish influence. Of course these are the
           schools with teh best resources, facilities. Students will learn
           how to speak Turkish, the national anthem, how to be the 'right
           kind of Muslim', etc. In essence, it buys them loyalty. We are
           still working on getting a complete database of Gulenist schools.
            They claim that have more than 2,000 in 200 countries so far.
           Today's Zaman editor in chief also talked about his experience at
           Turkish Daily News, which is now owned by Dogan group (which owns
           Hurriyet and is under attack now by AKP/Gulen). He said at TDN the
           tax evasion was so obvious and went into detail about how they did
           it and how his salary was parceled out to allow them to write off
           most of it.  this story was used by him to claim that they at
           Zaman didn't start this media war with Hurriyet, it was Hurriyet
           that started it because they were involved in all this bad
           business, etc. 
           The next day, Emre and I visited a major Gulenist organization
           that puts together these massive conferences all over the world to
           promote their agenda, raise funds, recruits, etc. Their office is
           in a very expensive part of Istanbul. They've got the best
           facilities, this beautiful  theater system. In short, they've got
           money. Now you have to ask yourself, where is the money coming
           from? the head of the organization that met with us and
           propagandized us kept talking about all these peace love and
           harmony efforts to spread the Gulen ideas and democratize Turkey,
           spread Turkey's influence, etc.  But their funding comes mainly
           from co-opting the Anatolian business class.  Again we heard about
           how they have allies within the military 'brave' enough to issue
           leaks on their coup plots.
           After getting a very long tour of the entire building, top to
           bottom, they sat us down for a Gulen propaganda film in their
           theater. Emre sitting in the middle of the Gulen guy and I. The
           Gulen guy is so overcome by the speech shown in the video by
           Fethullah Gulen, that he starts crying. Meanwhile im trying really
           hard not to laugh.  It was an interesting experience.
           That evening I had dinner with the editor in chief of Hurriyet,
           way on the other side of the political spectrum. He gave his
           version of the tax evasion case, said that Zaman and Gulen started
           the whole thing and that Bulent Kenes (Zaman editor who we met
           with) was part of the problem, he profiteered from that system. In
           short, it's very, very tense.  The night I met him, he had just
           found out that Zaman was suing them for running an article by
           Soner Cagaptay, who Gulenists are trying extremely hard to defame
           (it's very obvious).  This source confirmed what I have heard
           earlier about Gulen penetration of military and how they win the
           support of the Anatolian business class by giving them a lucrative
           place in the supply chain. He gave an example of the Gulen school
           influence -- he met with the Algerian ambassador - trained in a
           Gulen school, spoke fluent Turkish, extremely friendly to the
           Turkish government. A very well-oiled system.
           Today, Emre and I took a road trip to Ankara. We first visited the
           USAK think tank, which was opened by Abdullah Gul (the president)
           in 2009. THey also have a gorgeous office building. The head of
           the think tank started out by telling us what Turkish 'soft power'
           looks like. He said that during the Cold War times, Turkey looked
           at the Arab world in disgust, like they were inferiors. Now Turkey
           is paying attention to its neighborhood, wants to stabilize,e tc
           (the Davutoglu line).  What was most interesting is when he talked
           about how Turkey already has plenty to work from in the MIddle
           East. He said, Syrians, Egyptians, Iraqis, even Iranians --
           they're ALL TURKS. He says they look like Turks, they have TUrkish
           relatives from Ottoman history, they want to be like Turks, they
           love Turkish lifestyle, etc etc. He said that there is 'no such
           thing as an Arab' or Arab nationalism under Nasser. They're all
           Turks and Egypt is not a power to be taken seriously.  (if any
           Arab were in that room, their head would have probably
           exploded). they're nothing. Israel is also nothing compared to
           Turkish economic, regional, political, population power.   He went
           on to explain how Turkey can solve everyone's problems, by opening
           borders, removing visa restrictions and improving trade with
           Egypt, Syria, Iran, etc. A key part of this strategy is also to
           benefit the AKP's strategy of raising its own business class ---
           the Turkish merchants who benefit from increased trade in the
           Mideast are the Antaolian businessmen, and AKP is making sure of
           that. 
           This AKP think tank is in all the big Turkish delegations. He said
           that in their last trip to Syria, Bashar tells them he wants to
           open the border and wants to democratize (on the latter, yeah
           freakin right). He also claims that after their meetings, the
           members of the Syrian business council were practically begging
           them to stay because they said once the Turks in that delegation
           left, everything would go back to the same. Overall, we got the
           impression from several of these meetings that Turkey is extremely
           focused on the Syria track and increasingly more so on the
           Egyptian track. They expect and claim these countries welcome the
           Turks with open arms.  They also couldn't stop talkinga bout how
           Turkish television programs over satellite are spreading os much
           influence throughout the mideast and shows them how to be modern
           Turks. Saudi Arabia apparently has banned or is trying to ban
           these shows. I myself have seen how Turkish soap operas are
           extremely popular in the mideast.
           He confirmed our analysis that Russia has no intention of seeing
           through a Turkey-Armenia deal - it wouldn't make any sense. He
           says the AKP leadership was so naive to think that the talks would
           go anywhere. Now it's time to turn back to Azerbaijan and Georgia
           and fix things with them. AFter all, he says, Azerbaijan doesn't
           want to become another dependent of Russia's. 
           One other interesting thing he said about the Russian factor in
           those Armenia talks was that Turkey really expected the US to get
           more involved. He said Russia of course was an obstacle, we knew
           that. But, the US could have made concessions to Russia to allow
           this Armenia deal through. In other words, they expected the US to
           be part of a grand bargain in which the US would recognize that
           Turkey-Armenia relationship would bring all kinds of benefits, ie.
           strengthen an ally in the Caucasus, take care of the genocide
           issue, etc.  Turkey also expected US to pay a price to Russia for
           this project. Here is where there appears to be a
           misunderstanding, especially since this Armenia-Turkey deal is
           likely very low on US priorities when it comes to how to bargain
           with Russia. 
           We then met Erdogan's chief advisor at the prime minister's
           building.  This guy is also a Gulenist, but not openly so. The
           Hurriyet people say he is and Emre and i noticed the way he was
           talking on the phone and using certain phrases marked him as one.
           We got a lot of the Davutoglu diplomatic line from him (he's a
           very smooth and articulate guy, as Kamran knows). He said that
           there needs to be more time in the Iran negotiations and that
           things only got really serious in the past 6-7 months. US can't
           expect all this to happen overnight. He claims taht prior to the
           Iranian Revolution anniversary in February, that Iran actually
           agreed to the Turkey fuel swap deal. When they took the deal to
           the US, he says the US was totally unprepared then came back and
           said they can't do it. Turkey was pissed.  They feel that this, in
           addition to the Armenia issue and everything else, just goes to
           show how the Obama administration doesn't have strong political
           leadership (Bush at least fought the armenia resolution) and that
           the US doesn't understand or appreciate Turkey's role in the
           region. They feel betrayed, to use his words. He says it's
           hypocritical for US to get mad if Turkey talks to Russia when
           everyone applauds US and Russia negotiating. He says the reason
           Turkey is so active in the east is because they're actually
           receptive to them there (hint, hint - go tell your government to
           wake up and appreciate us).  He, like the guy at the AKP Usak
           think tank, talked about how Turkey needs the US as a partner in
           this region. US just needs to recognize it. 

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-03-11 08:39:14",1,"2012-03-03 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1537069_re-insight-turkey-some-notes-so-far-.html","emre.dogru@stratfor.com","","bhalla@stratfor.com,bayless.parsley@stratfor.com",""
1543329,"Re: G3* - MALAYSIA/CHINA/GV - INTERVIEW-Malaysia's Mahathir: racial
	divide	deepening
","   Gotta love Mahathir. He's pushing his autobiography and his story to help
   build support for UMNO ahead of elections. This issue about the racial
   divide has actually been a talking point for some time, we've had sources
   emphasizing it since the global recession. Reason being that when the econ
   crunch happend, the govt reverted to its gut instinct policies, which are
   pro-Malay. And now with election approaching, and Najib pushing his \"one
   malaysia\" idea, the situation is becoming even more contentious for those
   who consider themselves to suffer under pro-Malay policies, namely the
   enterprising ethnic Chinese minority. What Mahathir is doing here is
   drumming up resentment against the Chinese with the hopes of getting more
   malays out to vote, and to vote pro-Malay.

   Unlike Najib, he doesn't have to try to court the Chinese vote. The danger
   is that his statements will alienate Chinese voters that Najib needs. This
   is the predicament and one of the reasons there is a fair chance that
   Najib will not win back a two-thirds super-majority for BN, and will lose
   his job as a result. The broader ramifications if Najib can't get back the
   two-thirds super-majority are weakening of the BN, hence driving Malaysia
   closer to a time in which a real opposition can gain ground.

   On 7/7/11 10:44 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

     INTERVIEW-Malaysia's Mahathir: racial divide deepening

     07 Jul 2011 04:33

     Source: reuters // Reuters

     (Click for a Special Report on Malaysia)

     By Bill Tarrant
     http://www.trust.org/trustlaw/news/interview-malaysias-mahathir-racial-divide-deepening/

     PUTRAJAYA, Malaysia, July 7 (Reuters) - Malaysian Chinese have stopped
     supporting the government because they no longer feel they are getting
     their share of projects, former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad said.

     The former prime minister looked back on his two decades in power in a
     May interview at his office in Putrajaya, the showcase administrative
     capital he built in the 1990s and one of the \"mega-projects\" that helped
     define his regime.

     Chinese and Indians make up a third of the population but have become
     increasingly unhappy about an official policy that discriminates against
     them in favour of majority Malays.

     \"Yes, it's worse now,\" Mahathir says of the racial divide in Malaysia.
     \"During my time, I could rely on Chinese support for my party. Now the
     government is threatened with losing Chinese support.\"

     He noted that his government two decades ago bowed to Chinese demands to
     have their own schools taught in the Chinese language, and said it
     showed how accommodating it was to minority races. \"Despite having a
     national (Malay) language, they don't teach in the national language.
     They can't speak the national language.\"

     But he acknowledged that having separate schools had become a major
     factor in the racial divide.   

     \"We would like them to come to national schools. We even suggested you
     can have your Chinese school, you can have your Tamil school, but why
     not put all three schools on one campus? So they can eat together, they
     can play together, and each gets to know that in the real world they
     have to interact with different races. But the Chinese say no. They say
     if you do that, we won't support the government.\"

     Mahathir also ensured Chinese support by doling out government contracts
     to them and their Malay partners, which critics said encouraged
     corruption and cronyism. Mahathir's successors shelved big projects to
     pare down a widening fiscal deficit, at the cost of Chinese votes,
     Mahathir said.

     \"For some reason or another, the moment I stepped down, all the projects
     were stopped ... When you stop big government projects, a lot of people,
     well their businesses will go down.\"

     DON'T DEPEND ON FOREIGN INVESTMENT

     The man who made Malaysia part of the \"East Asia Miracle\" with a massive
     inflow of foreign direct investment doesn't think much of it today.

     \"We should not be too dependent on FDI anymore. We've come to the stage
     when locals can invest. They have now the capital. They have the
     technology. They know the market. And I think they can manage big
     industries.\"

     Mahathir published an 809-page autobiography, \"A Doctor in the House\",
     in March because he felt \"the need to make corrections of the opinions
     and the accusations that were levelled at me\".

     The accusation that grated the most, he said, was that he undermined the
     judiciary. The criticism is rooted in a 1988 amendment to the
     constitution that transferred powers over the judiciary to parliament.
     It essentially emasculated judicial independence, and allowed him to get
     judicial backing for his political manoeuvres from then onward.

     Dr. Mahathir could not disguise his contempt for lawyers.

     \"A doctor wants to find out about the truth of his patients so he can
     identify a treatment. A lawyer wants to get his client off the hook. And
     even if he knows the client is guilty he is going to find ways and means
     of getting him off the hook.\" (Editing by John Chalmers)

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Matt Gertken
 Senior Asia Pacific analyst
 US: +001.512.744.4085
 Mobile: +33(0)67.793.2417
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-07-08 12:09:05",1,"2012-03-06 20:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1543329_re-g3-malaysia-china-gv-interview-malaysia-s-mahathir-racial.html","matt.gertken@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1543637,"Re: Faruk
","   Emre - let's find some time to talk about Faruk tomorrow/Thursday. I want
   to organize how we're using him and make him most effective.

   Meredith

   On 4/28/11 8:51 AM, Meredith Friedman wrote:

     Got it - thanks Emre.

     --
     Sent via BlackBerry from Cingular Wireless

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Emre Dogru <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
     Date: Thu, 28 Apr 2011 07:31:20 -0500 (CDT)
     To: George Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>
     Cc: Meredith Friedman<mfriedman@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Faruk
     Hey George, Faruk says monthly payment is fine. Below is his bank
     account (US Dollar) information. I'm in touch with him as far as
     information gathering is concerned. Please let me know if you need
     anything else on this.
     Mehmet Faruk Demir
     GARANTI BANKASI
     Bank Account Nr: 1145/9099546
     IBAN  TR79 0006 2001 1450 0009 0995 46
     --
     --
     Emre Dogru
     STRATFOR  
     Cell: +90.532.465.7514
     Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
     emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Meredith Friedman
 VP,Communications
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com

 221 W. Sixth Street,
 Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 512 744 4301 - office
 512 426 5107 - cell
","2011-06-08 18:54:07",1,"2012-03-06 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1543637_re-faruk-.html","mfriedman@stratfor.com","","emre.dogru@stratfor.com,meredith@stratfor.com",""
1548887,"[TACTICAL] OBL safehouse intelligence ** note OBL's key roles
","(U) Bin Laden's written words show that counterterrorist officials
worldwide underestimated how key he remained to running the
organization, shattering the conventional thinking that he had been
reduced through isolation to being an inspirational figurehead, US
officials said in May. His personal, handwritten journal and his massive
collection of computer files show he helped plan every recent major al
Qaeda threat the United States is aware of, including plots in Europe
last year that had travelers and embassies on high alert, two officials
said. So far, no new plots have been uncovered in bin Laden's writings,
but intelligence officials say it will take weeks, if not months, to go
through them. They described the intelligence to The Associated Press
only on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk
publicly about what was found in bin Laden's hideout.
(U) The records show bin Laden was communicating from his walled
compound in Pakistan with al Qaeda's offshoots, including the Yemen
branch, which has emerged as the leading threat to the United States. US
officials have not shared any specific evidence yet that he was directly
behind the attempted Christmas Day 2009 bombing of a Detroit-bound
airliner or the nearly successful attack on cargo planes heading for
Chicago and Philadelphia, but it's now clear that they bear some of bin
Laden's hallmarks.
(U) He was well aware of US counterterrorist defenses and schooled his
followers how to work around them, the messages to his followers show.
Don't limit attacks to New York City, he said in his writings. Consider
other areas such as Los Angeles or smaller cities. Spread out the
targets. In one particularly macabre bit of mathematics, bin Laden's
writings show him musing over just how many Americans he must kill to
force the United States to withdraw from the Arab world. He concludes
that the smaller, scattered attacks since the 9/11 attacks had not been
enough. He tells his disciples that only a body count of thousands,
something on the scale of 9/11, would shift US policy. He also schemed
about ways to sow political dissent in Washington and play political
figures against one another, officials said.
(U) The communications were in missives sent via plug-in computer
storage devices called flash drives. The devices were ferried to bin
Laden's compound by couriers, a process that is slow but exceptionally
difficult to track. Intelligence officials have not identified any new
planned targets or plots in their initial analysis of the 100 or so
flash drives and five computers that Navy SEALs hauled away. In early
May, the FBI and Homeland Security Department warned law enforcement
officials nationwide to be on alert for possible attacks against trains,
though officials said there was no specific plot.
(U) Officials have not yet seen any indication that bin Laden had the
ability to coordinate timing of attacks across the various al Qaeda
affiliates in Pakistan, Yemen, Algeria, Iraq and Somalia. It is also
unclear from bin Laden's documents how much the affiliate groups
followed his guidance. The Yemen group, for instance, has embraced the
smaller-scale attacks that bin Laden's writings indicate he regarded as
unsuccessful. The Yemen branch had already surpassed his central
operation as al Qaeda's leading fundraising, propaganda and operational arm.
(U) Al Qaeda has not named bin Laden's successor, but all indications
point to his No. 2, Ayman al-Zawahri. The question is whether
al-Zawahri, or anyone, has the ability to keep so many disparate groups
under the al Qaeda banner. The groups in Somalia and Algeria, for
instance, have very different goals focused on local grievances. Without
bin Laden to serve as their shepherd, it's possible al Qaeda will
further fragment.
(U) British officials said the Americans had shared some information
with them about the bin Laden cache, but they said they had been shown
nothing concrete yet to indicate bin Laden's helped directly plan recent
terror attacks or plans in Britain — including a European plot last year
involving the threat of a Mumbai-style shooting spree in a capital. They
spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss matters of intelligence. One
British official said counterterror authorities had not been tracking
bin Laden like they had other terrorists deemed more directly involved
in operations.
","2011-06-28 17:02:33",1,"2012-03-06 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1548887_-tactical-obl-safehouse-intelligence-note-obl-s-key-roles-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:tactical@stratfor.com","tactical@stratfor.com",""
1549484,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-11 13:59:34",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1549484_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1549513,"Re: hacker questions
","   What would cause Anonymous or LulzSec to change their M.O.?  Wasn't
   Lulzsec an outgrowth, and thus a change in MO, from Anonymous?

   Top hackers only work for the NSA or the Chinese?
   On 6/28/11 5:14 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     they took the cia's website down and it didn't matter, intranet was
     still up, it's just the webpage. cyber attacks really only matter in two
     cases: one: you steal shit. two: you render critical networks useless.

     while lulzsec and anon COULD theoretically do number 2, it doesn't mean
     they ever will because it would take someone convincing a horde of nerds
     that ddos-ing a telecom system is a good idea. The most harm they can
     realistically do is by exposing secure networks' flaws and stealing
     information (number 1). For this you don't need a million people, just a
     few very good ones with gigantic computers. It's really not in the m.o.
     of either of them to do anything so serious. While top hackers are
     dangerous, they're not going to be exposing themselves as part of any
     group but most likely working either for the NSA or the Chinese.

     On 6/28/11 5:05 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       Even if they did take down the CIA's website, why would it matter? or
       in what cases would it matter?

       On 6/28/11 4:36 PM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

         Mainly the targets they're choosing: everything from government
         websites in Brazil, Chile, Peru to the Arizona PD and the freakin'
         CIA (although whether they actually brought down the CIA site or not
         isn't not confirmed). This is a considerable step-up from harassing
         some Scientologists.
         This wouldn't seem to be, by any means, \"serious\" hacking (mainly
         relying on DDOS and everything else Marc mentioned), but the fact
         that they can disrupt websites of that caliber, even for a few
         hours, is starting to attract media attention and it would mayby be
         prudent to mention something about it.

         Again, this wouldn't be a focus on Lulz-sec or Anonymous or whatever
         specifically, but rather the nature of this sort of impromptu
         cyber-harassing that can be a pain. 

         On 6/28/11 4:22 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           Renato- what makes it significant enough for us to cover?

           Marc- what makes LulzSec's capacity so remarkalble?

             the thing with anon and lulzec is that they do things for,
             drumroll, the \"lulz\" (in normal speech, for the fun of it).
             While they have pretty remarkable hacking capacity, they use it
             mostly to \"prank\" people they don't like. From teh Westboro
             Baptist Church to the CIA, most of the attacks involve either
             DDOS or changing some silly logo on a web page. The most harm
             they do is actually to corporations (stealing video game and
             porn passwords).

             Especially in the case of Anon, they do have some very talented
             hackers, but their strength comes from numbers. Basically they
             recruit amateur 4chan neckbeards sitting at their parent's house
             who think it'd be funny to take someone's website down and
             convince them to run a pre-written script that will saturate its
             servers. The problem with numbers is that it's hard to find a
             common cause that rallies enough people . For your average
             31-year old dork eating Frito's in the basement, they'll sign up
             for porn and video game attacks (see above). Coordinating
             something targeted like intelligence theft that can get you a
             one-way ticket to Bubba's bunk in jail is very hard.

             On 6/28/11 1:23 PM, Renato Whitaker wrote:

               Do we plan to address any of the recent hacker phenomenons
               like the \"Anon\" and \"lulzsec\" attempts on gov. websites? I
               mean, \"Anonymous\" is more of an idea than an actual group, but
               this could be considered a sort of electronic \"lone-wolf\", no?

               On a somewhat unrelated note, I looked up \"Lulz\" on Stratfor
               and came up with this typo: \"Both Chavez and Correa were in
               Manaos, Brazil, to meet with Brazilian President Lulz Inacio
               \"Lula\" da Silva.\"
               (http://www.stratfor.com/venezuela_chavez_says_banco_del_sur_open_november).

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 ADP

           --

           Sean Noonan

           Tactical Analyst

           Office: +1 512-279-9479

           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

           www.stratfor.com

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 ADP

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2011-06-29 01:33:34",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1549513_re-hacker-questions-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1550617,"Re: [OS] US/RUSSIA/CT- Pete Earley's blog afer announcement of
 Tretyakov's death
","   I suggest reading this carefully.  Also, would it be possible to have a
   meeting about all of this on Monday?

   Sean Noonan wrote:

     [much easier to read at the link]

     http://www.peteearley.com/blog/2010/07/10/sergeis-death-mistakes-nonsense-and-a-chuckle/#more-631
     Sergeia**s Death. Mistakes. Nonsense and a Chuckle
     Published by Pete on July 10, 2010 in Books and Personal.
     Ia**ve been a journalist for more than three decades, but Ia**ve never
     had a day like yesterday.
     My morning began at 5 a.m. when I announced on my blog that my good
     friend, Sergei Tretyakov, had died unexpectedly on June 13th. We became
     good friends while collaborating on Comrade J. I posted this news after
     speaking several times during the week to Helen, his wife, and to
     several sources in the U.S. government familiar with his case.
     I had learned about his death from Helen shortly after it happened and
     she had asked me as a family friend to keep silent about it. She was
     worried that Sergeia**s former colleagues in the Russian intelligence
     service a** the SVR a** would somehow use his death for propaganda
     purposes and attempt to embarrass and discredit him. She also was
     understandably devastated by his unexpected death, in mourning for her
     beloved husband, and did not want the media attention that she knew the
     news would bring on her family.
     Of course, I agreed. As an author and not a daily journalist, I felt I
     had the luxury of keeping silent.
     I should have known a fundamental rule about news. No one, no matter how
     well-intentioned or experienced, can control it.
     At the time, neither Helen nor I were aware of the pending arrests of 10
     Russian a**illegalsa** and when that story broke nationally, it wasna**t
     long before Sergeia**s name began being mentioned.

     Several reporters who cover the FBI and CIA began speculating that
     Sergei had tipped off U.S. officials about the Russian a**illegalsa**
     ring because several of the spies had entered the U.S.  in the late
     1990s when Sergei was the second-in-command of the SVR in New York City
     but was secretly working as a U.S. spy.
     I first learned about this speculation when a New York Post reporter
     telephoned me and asked if I thought Sergei was the source. Based on
     what I knew at the time, I said that Sergei probably was. It seemed
     logical.
     Within hours, I was getting calls from NPR, the BBC, and the major news
     networks. Everyone was searching for Sergei.
     At that point, I told Helen that it was only a matter of time before his
     death would be discovered, but she wasna**t ready emotionally to tell
     the world that Sergei had died. I began telling callers that Sergei was
     a**unavailable.a**
     Meanwhile, the illegals story continued to mushroom, especially after
     one of the a**illegalsa** a**  Anna Chapman a** was dubbed the
     a**Russian Femme Fatale.a** Suddenly, her face was everywhere and I
     began receiving more and more telephone calls.
     Where was Sergei Tretyakov? How can we reach him? Was he the source?
     DATELINE called and I agreed to an interview.  I began contacting
     sources of mine in the FBI and CIA to learn more about the
     a**illegalsa** and to my shock, I was told repeatedly that Sergei had
     nothing to do with the case. Yes, it was true that he had briefed the
     government after he had defected in October 2000 about SVR a**illegala**
     operations in New York City. But I was told that he did not know any of
     the names of the Russians who had been arrested and had not tipped off
     the FBI about the spy ring.

     During these conversations, I also learned that individuals involved in
     Sergeia**s case wanted Helen to reveal that her husband had died. I was
     told that it would be more difficult to dismiss the conspiracy theories
     that always seem to surface in spying cases if Sergei continued to be
     a**unavailable.a**
     On Thursday afternoon, I told DATELINE during a taped interview for a
     program that was to air on Sunday that Sergei was not the FBIa**s source
     for the arrests of the a**illegals.a** The producer who interviewed me
     was surprised and clearly disappointed.
     Late that night, Helen and I agreed that it was time to go public with
     Sergeia**s death. I greatly admired her courage and told her to gird
     herself for a media onslaught.
     I posted my blog at 5 a.m.and sent word to several reporters.
     Not much happened for several hours until J.J. Green, a reporter at WTOP
     radio in Washington D.C., interviewed Helen. Green had broadcast an
     excellent series about Sergei Tretyakov on WTOP earlier and like me,
     Helen had liked and trusted him. She had told him about Sergeia**s death
     and had given him an exclusive interview when he called her.
     The Associated Press picked up Greena**s story and then called me for
     information.
     It was then that things began getting strange.
     An AP reporter wrote a story that said WTOP was the first to break the
     news of Sergeia**s death. Obviously, that was wrong.  Later during the
     day, that same AP reporter sent me an email explaining why he had
     credited WTOP instead of my blog. a**WTOP is an AP member and the first
     media outlet to tip us off and report the story. Thata**s why wea**re
     giving them credit.a** Apparently plugging AP members overrode being
     accurate. But the slight was a minor irritant. There were other mistakes
     in the AP story that was now spreading news of Sergeia**s death across
     the nation and world.
     Within two hours, I had received more than fifty emails and dozens of
     telephone calls from reporters. It didna**t help that I was out of town
     conducting an interview and didna**t have enough juice in my cell phone
     to return all of the calls to answer questions.
     I also realized that I had made a mistake too in my blog. Or it appeared
     that I had.
     I had been told that the FBI had supervised an autopsy of Sergeia**s
     body to insure that there was no foul play involved in his death. 
     However, a reporter tracked down the coroner, who was actually doing the
     autopsy, and the coroner said the final results would not be available
     until late July. Then the FBI took the unusual step of issuing a
     statement saying that it had not supervised the autopsy as I had
     reported.
     I felt both angry and betrayed because my sources had told me that an
     autopsy had been done under the direction of the FBI and it had showed
     no foul play. I felt the FBI was distancing itself from Sergeia**s death
     and I didna**t know why. When I confronted my sources, I was told that
     the government did not want to officially acknowledge that Sergei was a
     spy.
     What? I exclaimed.
     In the first chapter of my book, Comrade J, I had explained that it was
     the FBI and CIA who had first introduced Sergei to me.
     Within a few hours, The New York Times was reporting that the coroner
     was now saying that an autopsy had been completed and that the FBI was
     monitoring the autopsy.
     By mid-morning, the tenor of the calls on my cell phone had changed. Now
     I was being asked about differences in the WTOP report and my blog. Why
     had Helen told me that Sergei had died from a massive heart attack when
     WTOP was saying that he had died from natural causes. Why had I said an
     autopsy had been done when the coroner was saying it hadna**t and then
     saying it had? And why had the FBI gone to the trouble of saying it had
     not supervised an autopsy when the coroner was now saying it had?
     Meanwhile, a spy museum official in Washington D.C. was still insisting
     that it was possible that Sergei had tipped off the FBI about the
     a**illegals.a**
     Late Friday afternoon, the Washington Post revealed that the White House
     had been briefed about the impending arrests of the a**illegalsa** on
     June 11th a** two days before Sergeia**s death.
     It was at that point when the conspiracy theories began surfacing on
     blogs, including this one.
     A reporter from TASS a** the Russian news service a** telephoned and
     suggested that it was highly unlikely that Sergeia**s death and the
     a**illegalsa** case were unrelated and a coincidence.
     The story was now taking on a life of its own.
     When I wrote my first spy book about John Walker Jr. and his Family of
     Spies, I quickly learned a sad truth about espionage reporting. I was on
     a radio station talking about Walker and how he had betrayed our nation
     when an outraged caller came on the air and told me that I had it all
     wrong. Walker was actually a double agent trained by the CIA. Our
     government was going to swap him with someone in Moscow so that Walker
     could steal the Kremlina**s secrets. It was total nonsense, of course,
     but the caller was absolutely certain it was true.
     Not long after that, I wrote about Aldrich Ames, the CIA traitor, and
     his involvement with Vitaly Yuchenko, a veteran KGB officer who defected
     to the US in 1985, only to change his mind a short time later and return
     to the Soviet Union. I interviewed the key players in both the U.S. and
     in Moscow about the Yuchenko case after the collapse of the Soviet
     Union, including retired KGB General Boris Solomatin who was directly
     involved in the Yuchenko investigation. There is no doubt in my mind
     that Yuchenko was a genuine defector who had simply gone home to Moscow
     after having his heart broken by the wife of a Soviet diplomat. He had
     foolishly believed that she would leave her husband in Canada and live
     happily ever after with him in America after he defected to the U.S.
     Instead, she had rebuffed him.
     However, if you check the Internet you will see lots of conspiracy
     theories about how Yuchenko was a a**fakea** defector who was sent by
     the KGB to cast suspicion away from Ames. Even Wikipedia has fallen for
     the a**Yuchenko was a fake defectora** scenario that is constantly being
     pushed by the SVR.
     Given the history of conspiracy theories in the CIA, dating back to
     James Jesus Angleton and the Nosenko affair, I will not be surprised if
     the SVR and conspiracy theorists jump on Sergeia**s death.
     No matter what I write about my good friend, there will be readers who
     will prefer to believe that he was murdered for speaking out against
     Russia. My heart goes out to Helen because this is exactly what she
     didna**t want to happen.
     But I also have to smile a bit.
     I can see my friend Sergei chuckling at the nonsense that many are
     writing about him. He always did like a good spy story.

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

     --
     Sean Noonan
     Tactical Analyst
     Office: +1 512-279-9479
     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com


   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   Office: +1 512-279-9479
   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   www.stratfor.com
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1550617_re-os-us-russia-ct-pete-earley-s-blog-afer-announcement-of.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","tactical@stratfor.com",""
1552099,"Re: [CT] [OS] US/RUSSIA/CT- Former top Russian spy Sergei	Tretyakovdies
 at	53
","   Earley's blog first posted at 0400 Central
   He also twatted about it about that time. 

   WTOP article was posted approximately 0850 Central
   JJ Green first twatted about at approximately 0900 central

   Sean Noonan wrote:

     yes, that was included in the analysis. 

     Anya Alfano wrote:

       Note in this post, Earley says J didn't know about the 10 recently
       arrested spies, per an unidentified source.  In bold below --

       On 7/9/2010 1:52 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         This was Earley's first blog post, that I sent out earlier. 
         Sometime today.  I'm not sure if you mean 'what' was the blog or
         'when' was the blog.  Seeing if Kevin can help track down the time
         it was posted.

         Sergei Tretyakov, Comrade J, has died.
         Published by Pete on July 9, 2010 in Books and Personal.
         http://www.peteearley.com/blog/2010/07/09/sergei-tretyakov-comrade-j-has-died/

         I am sorry to announce that my good friend, Sergei Tretyakov, the
         subject of my book, Comrade J: The Untold Secrets of Russia's Master
         Spy in America After the End of the Cold War, died unexpectedly on
         June 13th in his home with his wife, Helen.
         Sergei was 53.
         Helen asked those of us who were his friends to not immediately
         reveal his death until an autopsy could be performed under the
         supervision of the FBI. She was concerned that Sergei's former
         colleagues in Russia's SVR, which replaced the KGB as Russia's
         foreign intelligence service, might attempt to use his unexpected
         death for propaganda purposes.
         That autopsy has now been completed and it showed no evidence of
         foul play, according to an FBI official who spoke to me
         off-the-record. Helen said her husband died from massive cardiac
         arrest.
         In keeping with Russian Orthodox religious traditions, a private
         funeral was held on the third day after his death. On the ninth day,
         more than 200 people attended a private celebration of his life. The
         guests included close friends, neighbors and persons who had worked
         with him in the United States.
         Sergei was called \"the most important spy for the U.S. since the
         collapse of the Soviet Union\" by an FBI official in my book.
         Unfortunately, because much of what he said is still being used by
         U. S. counter-intelligence officers, it will be years before the
         true extent of his contribution can be made public - if ever.
         Sergei Olegovich Tretyakov was born Oct. 5, 1956 in Moscow and rose
         quickly through the ranks to become the second-in-command of the KGB
         in New York City between 1995 to 2000. As such, he oversaw all
         Russian spy operations against the US and its allies in New York
         City and within the United Nations.
         When he defected on Oct. 11, 2000, with Helen and their daughter,
         Ksenia, the U.S. government took the family into hiding and during
         the next five years, they lived largely \"off the grid.\" It wasn't
         until Comrade J was published and Sergei went on a book tour that
         his work both as a high-ranking KGB/SVR officer and U.S. operative
         was made public. It is thought that he spent at least three years
         working as a U.S. agent while he was still an SVR colonel in New
         York.
         Sergei, Helen and their daughter became U.S. citizens after they
         defected and although some federal officials feared for their
         safety, Sergei lived openly under his own name without protection -
         although when he traveled overseas, he always had an FBI escort.
         Sergei was convinced that his U.S. citizenship protected him from
         the SVR, even though he continued to publicly criticize his former
         colleagues, especially President Vladimir Putin.
         The recent arrests of eleven Russian \"illegals\" on June 28th by the
         FBI thrust Sergei's name into the news once again. The fact that he
         was in charge of all covert operations in New York City when several
         of the illegals entered the country suggested that he was aware of
         their operations and quickly led to speculation that he had
         tipped-off the FBI about the ring.
         However, on Thursday, a  informed source told me that Sergei was not
         involved in the case. Sergei told U.S. officials when he was
         debriefed about Russian \"illegal\" operations, but he did not know
         the individuals who later were arrested, my source said.
         I became close friends with Sergei and Helen while working on my
         book about their life and his career. They insisted that I stay with
         them in their home and during our weeks together, I witnessed
         first-hand how much he and Helen loved each other, their devotion to
         their daughter, and love for their new homeland. I also was
         delighted to discover that Helen was a gourmet cook!
         Sergei dispelled many of the Hollywood stereotypes of a Russian
         agent. He was well-educated, fluent in three languages,
         quick-witted, personable and able to laugh at his own mistakes when
         he didn't understand an American tradition or slang.
         He proved to be a tireless worker when I interviewed him. He would
         speak for ten hours straight, often pacing back-and-forth, in the
         family room of his house as we discussed his career. He had a
         fabulous memory that he had sharpened as a KGB/SVR officer and he
         refused to speculate or exaggerate when he discussed KGB/SVR
         operations.  He knew his enemies in Russia would use the slightest
         mistake to attack his credibility so he was scrupulous in what he
         said and the charges that he made.
         Having written bestselling books about two American traitors,
         including John Walker Jr., and his Family of Spies,and Aldrich Ames,
         the CIA turncoat, I was struck at how different Sergei was from U.S.
         traitors. Walker and Ames were motivated by greed and money. Sergei
         did not need money. Upon his return to Russia from New York, he was
         due to be promoted to the rank of general, which would have
         guaranteed him a cushy retirement. He had assets in Moscow worth
         more than two million U.S. dollars - money that was stripped from
         him after he defected.
         It was clear to me early on that he did not swtich sides for
         financial gain, but rather because he had lost faith in Russian
         leaders and he wanted a better life for his young daughter. He liked
         to say that he did not betray his homeland. Rather he and other
         ordinary citizens in Russia had been betrayed by Presidents Boris
         Yeltsin and Putin after the Soviet Union collapsed.
         Neither Walker or Ames ever wanted to become Russian citizens, but
         Sergei and his family relished their U.S. citizenship. Sergei often
         told me that Americans were naive because they took freedoms for
         granted and did not understand how unique our lives here are
         compared to life in an oppressive nation, such as Russia whose
         leaders often silence their critics, especially those in the media,
         with a bullet.
         One reason why I believe Sergei did not know about the 11 Russians
         who were arrested as illegals is because he did not hold back during
         our interviews in identifying persons whom he claimed were Russian
         spies.
         Among the individuals identified in my book were a former member of
         the Canadian Parliament, a top-ranking verification expert at the
         International Atomic Energy Agency, and a former U.N. official who
         Sergei helped place in the Oil For Food Program. That UN official
         diverted a half billion US dollars of UN humanitarian relief to
         Moscow under both the Yeltsin and Putin administrations and was
         rewarded by Putin for the thefts. Sergei was disgusted by that
         thievery and said so.
         In our interviews, he talked repeatedly about how Yeltsin had failed
         the Russian people by becoming a drunken stumble-bum who allowed
         Oligarchs to engorge themselves by stealing government property. He
         had similar harsh criticisms for Putin, whom Sergei described as an
         insignificant KGB officer who later as president surrounded himself
         with thugs. Their primary goal has been to enrich themselves, he
         charged.
         Sergei asked me to write his story at the suggestion of a director
         in the British intelligence service. They were having dinner when my
         name was mentioned because the director had read my book about
         Aldrich Ames and had admired it. Sergei waived his rights to any
         advance money from the publisher and received less than $10,000 from
         the book's sales even though it was a New York Times bestseller.
         Money was not his motive in telling his story.
         Instead, he hoped to sound a wake-up call about Russia. He was fond
         of saying that the Cold War never ended. Before the collapse of the
         Soviet Union, the KGB had a list of three main adversaries: (1.) The
         United States  (2.) NATO and (3.) China. After the KGB was disbanded
         and the SVR was formed, Sergei said a new edict came down announcing
         that the SVR had three main targets: (1.) The United States (2.)
         NATO and (3.) China.
         \"What changed?\" he asked, laughing.
         Those of us who were his friends will miss his sense of humor, his
         knowledge about Russia and KGB/SVR spy-craft,  and his almost
         child-like love for his new country.
         I was honored to write his life story and to call him my friend.
         I will miss not hearing his voice when I call.

         Fred Burton wrote:

           The wife dissed Early and gave JJ the exclusive.

           What was Earlys first blog on CJ's death?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
           Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com
           Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2010 12:36:42 -0500
           To: CT AOR<ct@stratfor.com>
           ReplyTo: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>
           Subject: Re: [CT] [OS] US/RUSSIA/CT- Former top Russian spy Sergei
           Tretyakov dies at 53
           Othere people getting in on the suspicions.  See see bolded
           Spy Swap Suspicions? Death of Russian Turncoat Raises Eyebrows
           http://www.aolnews.com/surge-desk/article/spy-swap-suspicions-death-of-russian-turncoat-raises-eyebrows/19548270

           Sergei Tretyakov, a Russian spy who defected to the United States
           in 2000, has died, Washington, D.C. radio station WTOP is
           reporting. The timing of the announcement is viewed suspiciously
           by some, given the spy swap that occurred between the U.S. and
           Russia today and the fact that Tretyakov apparently died last
           month. His wife, Helen, reportedly asked that his death not be
           announced until an autopsy was completed. No foul play was
           reported in the autopsy, according to WTOP......

           ...In recent weeks, it has been revealed that the FBI has been
           following the 10 Russian spies who were deported today for the
           last 10 years.

           Sean Noonan wrote:

             More details, others speculating about links to 10 Russian
             agents.
             Former top Russian spy Sergei Tretyakov dies at 53
             By BRETT ZONGKER (AP) - 28 minutes ago
             http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hnKY1X2FWlKY5ogKK_hsIU0HUnSQD9GRLAQ80

             WASHINGTON - A former top Russian spy who defected to the U.S.
             after running espionage operations from the United Nations,
             Sergei Tretyakov, has died in Florida, his wife and a friend
             said Friday. He was 53.

             News of his death last month came the same day the United States
             and Russia completed their largest swap of spies since the Cold
             War.

             Tretyakov, who defected in 2000 and later claimed his agents
             helped the Russian government steal nearly $500 million from the
             U.N.'s oil-for-food program in Iraq, died June 13. He was 53,
             according to a Social Security death record.

             WTOP Radio in Washington first reported his death Friday. His
             widow, Helen Tretyakov, told the station he died of natural
             causes.

             She asked friends not to make the death public until the cause
             was determined, according to author Pete Earley, who wrote a
             2008 book about Tretyakov. Earley wrote Friday on his blog that
             Tretyakov died of a heart attack at home and an autopsy showed
             no sign of foul play.

             The medical examiner's office in Sarasota County, Fla., said the
             autopsy report was pending. A woman who answered the phone at
             the office said it would be completed after July 26.

             \"Sergei was called 'the most important spy for the U.S. since
             the collapse of the Soviet Union' by an FBI official in my
             book,\" Earley wrote. \"Unfortunately, because much of what he
             said is still being used by U.S. counterintelligence officers,
             it will be years before the true extent of his contribution can
             be made public - if ever.\"

             A private funeral was held three days after Tretyakov's death,
             in keeping with Russian Orthodox tradition, and more than 200
             people attended a service in the days after, Earley wrote.

             Tretyakov was born Oct. 5, 1956, in Moscow. He joined the KGB
             and rose quickly to become the second-in-command of its U.N.
             office in New York between 1995 and 2000.

             His defection in 2000 was very significant, said Peter Earnest,
             director of the International Spy Museum in Washington, who
             spent more than 30 years in the CIA.

             Russia's spies in the United States would have come under
             Tretyakov's purview, Earnest said.

             For up to a decade following his defection, the FBI kept watch
             over 10 Russian agents as they tried to blend into American
             suburbia. They were arrested last week and swapped Friday in
             Vienna for four people convicted in Russia of spying for the
             U.S. and Britain.

             \"That does bring into mind the question: Is that the sort of
             information he might have shared with the U.S. authorities?\"
             Earnest said.
             Tretyakov defected to the United States with his wife and
             daughter.

             In a 2008 interview promoting Earley's book, Tretyakov said his
             agents helped the Russian government skim hundreds of millions
             of dollars from the oil-for-food program before the fall of
             Saddam Hussein in 2003. He told The Associated Press he oversaw
             an operation that helped Hussein's regime manipulate the price
             of oil sold under the program, and Russia skimmed profits.

             Tretyakov called his defection \"the major failure of Russian
             intelligence in the United States\" and warned that Russia,
             despite the end of the Cold War, harbored bad intentions toward
             the U.S.

             Tretyakov said he found it immoral to continue helping the
             Russian government.

             \"I don't see any light at the end of the tunnel. I'm not very
             emotional. I'm not a Boy Scout,\" Tretyakov said. \"And finally in
             my life, when I defected, I did something good in my life.
             Because I want to help United States.\"

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-07-09 20:07:06",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1552099_re-ct-os-us-russia-ct-former-top-russian-spy-sergei.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,ct@stratfor.com",""
1553143,"Re: [CT] Fwd: [OS] US/CT-16 Suspected 'Anonymous' Hackers Arrested
 in Nationwide Sweep
","These assholes should get the death sentence, along with their hero Julian =
Assange.

---- Original Message -----
From: Reginald Thompson &lt;reginald.thompson@stratfor.com&gt;
To: CT AOR &lt;ct@stratfor.com&gt;
Sent: Tue, 19 Jul 2011 18:48:06 -0500 (CDT)
Subject: [CT] Fwd: [OS] US/CT-16 Suspected 'Anonymous' Hackers Arrested in =
Nationwide Sweep
16 Suspected 'Anonymous' Hackers Arrested in Nationwide Sweep=20
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/07/19/exclusive-fbi-search-warrants-nat=
ionwide-hunt-anonymous/=20
7.19.11=20
Sixteen suspected members of \"Anonymous\" were arrested this morning in stat=
es across the country, from California to New York, in a federal raid on th=
e notorious hacking group.=20
The arrests Tuesday, first reported by FoxNews.com, are part of an ongoing =
investigation into Anonymous, which has claimed responsibility for numerous=
 cyberattacks against a variety of websites, including Visa and Mastercard.=
=20
The Department of Justice, in announcing the arrests and more than 35 searc=
h warrants in the case, said the case stemmed from an alleged cybertattack =
on the website PayPal over its action against controversial group WikiLeaks=
, one of the inspirations for the hacker group Anonymous.=20
Fourteen of the arrests were identified in the same indictment out of Calif=
ornia, while two separate criminal complaints filed out of courts in Newark=
, N.J., and Tampa, Fla., name the two other alleged hackers. All are believ=
ed to have been involved in carrying out nationwide coordinated distributed=
 denial of service (DDoS) attacks on multiple high-profile, billion-dollar =
companies.=20
\"In retribution for PayPal=E2=80=99s termination of WikiLeaks=E2=80=99 dona=
tion account, a group calling itself Anonymous coordinated and executed dis=
tributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks against PayPal=E2=80=99s computer=
 servers using an open source computer program the group makes available fo=
r free download on the Internet,\" the Justice Department said in a news rel=
ease.=20
The department identified the suspects in the California indictment as Chri=
stopher Wayne Cooper, 23, aka =E2=80=9CAnthrophobic;=E2=80=9D Joshua John C=
ovelli, 26, aka =E2=80=9CAbsolem=E2=80=9D and =E2=80=9CToxic;=E2=80=9D Keit=
h Wilson Downey, 26; Mercedes Renee Haefer, 20, aka =E2=80=9CNo=E2=80=9D an=
d =E2=80=9CMMMM;=E2=80=9D Donald Husband, 29, aka =E2=80=9CAnanon;=E2=80=9D=
 Vincent Charles Kershaw, 27, aka =E2=80=9CTrivette,=E2=80=9D =E2=80=9CTriv=
=E2=80=9D and =E2=80=9CReaper;=E2=80=9D Ethan Miles, 33; James C. Murphy, 3=
6; Drew Alan Phillips, 26, aka =E2=80=9CDrew010;=E2=80=9D Jeffrey Puglisi, =
28, aka =E2=80=9CJeffer,=E2=80=9D =E2=80=9CJefferp=E2=80=9D and =E2=80=9CJi=
;=E2=80=9D Daniel Sullivan, 22; Tracy Ann Valenzuela, 42; and Christopher Q=
uang Vo, 22. One individual=E2=80=99s name has been withheld by the court.=
=20
They are charged with various counts of conspiracy and intentional damage t=
o a protected computer, which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years in pri=
son and a fine of up to $250,000. Each count of conspiracy carries a maximu=
m penalty of five years in prison and a $250,000 fine.=20
Also Tuesday, Scott Matthew Arciszewski, 21, was arrested in Florida on cha=
rges of intentional damage to a protected computer for allegedly accessing =
without authorization the Tampa Bay InfraGard website and uploaded three fi=
les.=20
And Lance Moore, 21, of Las Cruces, N.M., was arrested on the New Jersey in=
dictment, which accuses him of stealing confidential business information s=
tored on AT&T=E2=80=99s servers and posting it on a file-sharing site. He i=
s charged with one count of accessing a protected computer without authoriz=
ation.=20
Some of the arrests were out of the San Francisco field office, sources sai=
d. Earlier in the day, the FBI executed search warrants at the New York hom=
es -- two in Long Island, N.Y., and one in Brooklyn, N.Y. -- of three suspe=
cted members of Anonymous, FoxNews.com reported.=20
More than 10 FBI agents arrived at the Baldwin, N.Y., home of Giordani Jord=
an with a search warrant for computers and computer-related accessories, re=
moving at least one laptop from the premises.=20
The Anonymous group is a loose collection of cybersavvy activists inspired =
by WikiLeaks and its flamboyant head Julian Assange to fight for \"Internet =
freedom\" -- along the way defacing websites, shutting down servers, and scr=
awling messages across screens web-wide.=20
The Anonymous vigilante group recently turned its efforts to the Arizona po=
lice department, posting personal information of law officers and hacking a=
nd defacing websites in response, the group claims, to the state's controve=
rsial SB1070 immigration law.=20
While Anonymous is largely a politically motivated organization, splinter g=
roup LulzSec -- which dominated headlines in the spring for a similar strea=
k of cyberattacks -- was largely in it for the thrills.=20
The metropolitan police in London arrested the first alleged member of the =
LulzSec group on June 20, a 19-year-old teen named Ryan Cleary. Subsequent =
sweeps through Italy and Switzerland in early July led to the arrests of 15=
 more people -- all between the ages of 15 and 28 years old.=20
The two groups are responsible for a broad spate of digital break-ins targe=
ting governments and large corporations, including Japanese technology gian=
t Sony, the U.S. Senate, telecommunications giant AT&T, Fox.com, and other =
government and private entities.=20
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/07/19/exclusive-fbi-search-w=
arrants-nationwide-hunt-anonymous/#ixzz1Sb8yzQ90=20
-----------------=20
Reginald Thompson=20
Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741=20
OSINT=20
Stratfor=20
","2011-07-20 04:47:57",1,"2012-02-28 19:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1553143_re-ct-fwd-os-us-ct-16-suspected-anonymous-hackers-arrested.html","christopher.ohara@stratfor.com","mailto:ct@stratfor.com","ct@stratfor.com",""
1558278,"Re: [CT] contradictory quotes about tretyakov autopsy
","   This July 26 date might be for public release--rather than the FBI and
   Yelena's view of it.  We really don't know. 
   We are waiting for a recording of the 911 call.  There a number of ways to
   kill people that don't show up in an autopsy. 

   And while Tretyakov wasn't in WITSEC, the FBI (and CIA presumably) are
   going to be afraid of being publicly held partly responsible for his
   death, if it was foulplay. 

   All that said, a suspicious death would trigger what happened over the
   last few weeks, even if they now know it was natural causes.

   Colby Martin wrote:

     Below are the two contradictory quotes

     >From Pete Early blog:
     http://www.peteearley.com/blog/2010/07/09/sergei-tretyakov-comrade-j-has-died/
     Helen asked those of us who were his friends to not immediately reveal
     his death until an autopsy could be performed under the supervision of
     the FBI. She was concerned that Sergei's former colleagues in Russia's
     SVR, which replaced the KGB as Russia's foreign intelligence service,
     might attempt to use his unexpected death for propaganda purposes.
     That autopsy has now been completed and it showed no evidence of foul
     play, according to an FBI official who spoke to me off-the-record.

     >From article: Former top Russian spy Sergei Tretyakov dies at 53
     http://www.svherald.com/content/associatedpress/former-top-russian-spy-sergei-tretyakov-dies-53
     The medical examiner's office in Sarasota County, Fla., is conducting an
     autopsy on Tretyakov. A woman who answered the phone at the office said
     it would be completed sometime after July 26.

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: Author of Comrade J on Tretyakov's death                       
         Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2010 10:11:42 -0500                                
         From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>                         
     Reply-To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>                           
           To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>, The OS List              
               <os@stratfor.com>, Tactical <tactical@stratfor.com>            

     http://www.peteearley.com/blog/2010/07/09/sergei-tretyakov-comrade-j-has-died/

     Sergei Tretyakov, Comrade J, has died.
     Published by Pete on July 9, 2010 in Books and Personal.
     I am sorry to announce that my good friend, Sergei Tretyakov, the
     subject of my book, Comrade J: The Untold Secrets of Russia's Master Spy
     in America After the End of the Cold War, died unexpectedly on June 13th
     in his home with his wife, Helen.
     Sergei was 53.
     Helen asked those of us who were his friends to not immediately reveal
     his death until an autopsy could be performed under the supervision of
     the FBI. She was concerned that Sergei's former colleagues in Russia's
     SVR, which replaced the KGB as Russia's foreign intelligence service,
     might attempt to use his unexpected death for propaganda purposes.
     That autopsy has now been completed and it showed no evidence of foul
     play, according to an FBI official who spoke to me off-the-record. Helen
     said her husband died from massive cardiac arrest.
     In keeping with Russian Orthodox religious traditions, a private funeral
     was held on the third day after his death. On the ninth day, more than
     200 people attended a private celebration of his life. The guests
     included close friends, neighbors and persons who had worked with him in
     the United States.
     Sergei was called \"the most important spy for the U.S. since the
     collapse of the Soviet Union\" by an FBI official in my book.
     Unfortunately, because much of what he said is still being used by U. S.
     counter-intelligence officers, it will be years before the true extent
     of his contribution can be made public - if ever.
     Sergei Olegovich Tretyakov was born Oct. 5, 1956 in Moscow and rose
     quickly through the ranks to become the second-in-command of the KGB in
     New York City between 1995 to 2000. As such, he oversaw all Russian spy
     operations against the US and its allies in New York City and within the
     United Nations.
     When he defected on Oct. 11, 2000, with Helen and their daughter,
     Ksenia, the U.S. government took the family into hiding and during the
     next five years, they lived largely \"off the grid.\" It wasn't until
     Comrade J was published and Sergei went on a book tour that his work
     both as a high-ranking KGB/SVR officer and U.S. operative was made
     public. It is thought that he spent at least three years working as a
     U.S. agent while he was still an SVR colonel in New York.
     Sergei, Helen and their daughter became U.S. citizens after they
     defected and although some federal officials feared for their safety,
     Sergei lived openly under his own name without protection - although
     when he traveled overseas, he always had an FBI escort. Sergei was
     convinced that his U.S. citizenship protected him from the SVR, even
     though he continued to publicly criticize his former colleagues,
     especially President Vladimir Putin.
     The recent arrests of eleven Russian \"illegals\" on June 28th by the FBI
     thrust Sergei's name into the news once again. The fact that he was in
     charge of all covert operations in New York City when several of the
     illegals entered the country suggested that he was aware of their
     operations and quickly led to speculation that he had tipped-off the FBI
     about the ring.
     However, on Thursday, a  informed source told me that Sergei was not
     involved in the case. Sergei told U.S. officials when he was debriefed
     about Russian \"illegal\" operations, but he did not know the individuals
     who later were arrested, my source said.
     I became close friends with Sergei and Helen while working on my book
     about their life and his career. They insisted that I stay with them in
     their home and during our weeks together, I witnessed first-hand how
     much he and Helen loved each other, their devotion to their daughter,
     and love for their new homeland. I also was delighted to discover that
     Helen was a gourmet cook!
     Sergei dispelled many of the Hollywood stereotypes of a Russian agent.
     He was well-educated, fluent in three languages, quick-witted,
     personable and able to laugh at his own mistakes when he didn't
     understand an American tradition or slang.
     He proved to be a tireless worker when I interviewed him. He would speak
     for ten hours straight, often pacing back-and-forth, in the family room
     of his house as we discussed his career. He had a fabulous memory that
     he had sharpened as a KGB/SVR officer and he refused to speculate or
     exaggerate when he discussed KGB/SVR operations.  He knew his enemies in
     Russia would use the slightest mistake to attack his credibility so he
     was scrupulous in what he said and the charges that he made.
     Having written bestselling books about two American traitors, including
     John Walker Jr., and his Family of Spies,and Aldrich Ames, the CIA
     turncoat, I was struck at how different Sergei was from U.S. traitors.
     Walker and Ames were motivated by greed and money. Sergei did not need
     money. Upon his return to Russia from New York, he was due to be
     promoted to the rank of general, which would have guaranteed him a cushy
     retirement. He had assets in Moscow worth more than two million U.S.
     dollars - money that was stripped from him after he defected.
     It was clear to me early on that he did not swtich sides for financial
     gain, but rather because he had lost faith in Russian leaders and he
     wanted a better life for his young daughter. He liked to say that he did
     not betray his homeland. Rather he and other ordinary citizens in Russia
     had been betrayed by Presidents Boris Yeltsin and Putin after the Soviet
     Union collapsed.
     Neither Walker or Ames ever wanted to become Russian citizens, but
     Sergei and his family relished their U.S. citizenship. Sergei often told
     me that Americans were naive because they took freedoms for granted and
     did not understand how unique our lives here are compared to life in an
     oppressive nation, such as Russia whose leaders often silence their
     critics, especially those in the media, with a bullet.
     One reason why I believe Sergei did not know about the 11 Russians who
     were arrested as illegals is because he did not hold back during our
     interviews in identifying persons whom he claimed were Russian spies.
     Among the individuals identified in my book were a former member of the
     Canadian Parliament, a top-ranking verification expert at the
     International Atomic Energy Agency, and a former U.N. official who
     Sergei helped place in the Oil For Food Program. That UN official
     diverted a half billion US dollars of UN humanitarian relief to Moscow
     under both the Yeltsin and Putin administrations and was rewarded by
     Putin for the thefts. Sergei was disgusted by that thievery and said so.
     In our interviews, he talked repeatedly about how Yeltsin had failed the
     Russian people by becoming a drunken stumble-bum who allowed Oligarchs
     to engorge themselves by stealing government property. He had similar
     harsh criticisms for Putin, whom Sergei described as an insignificant
     KGB officer who later as president surrounded himself with thugs. Their
     primary goal has been to enrich themselves, he charged.
     Sergei asked me to write his story at the suggestion of a director in
     the British intelligence service. They were having dinner when my name
     was mentioned because the director had read my book about Aldrich Ames
     and had admired it. Sergei waived his rights to any advance money from
     the publisher and received less than $10,000 from the book's sales even
     though it was a New York Times bestseller. Money was not his motive in
     telling his story.
     Instead, he hoped to sound a wake-up call about Russia. He was fond of
     saying that the Cold War never ended. Before the collapse of the Soviet
     Union, the KGB had a list of three main adversaries: (1.) The United
     States  (2.) NATO and (3.) China. After the KGB was disbanded and the
     SVR was formed, Sergei said a new edict came down announcing that the
     SVR had three main targets: (1.) The United States (2.) NATO and (3.)
     China.
     \"What changed?\" he asked, laughing.
     Those of us who were his friends will miss his sense of humor, his
     knowledge about Russia and KGB/SVR spy-craft,  and his almost child-like
     love for his new country.
     I was honored to write his life story and to call him my friend.
     I will miss not hearing his voice when I call.

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-07-09 18:39:28",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1558278_re-ct-contradictory-quotes-about-tretyakov-autopsy-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1558772,"Re: G3* - CYPRUS/US/RUSSIA - Suspected US spy arrested in Cyprus
","   score.=C2=A0 This was the one = guy not arrested Sunday, he was involved
   in the operations from Canada and handled a lot of the money.=C2=A0

   Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

     arrest was monday at 3am

               Breaking News: Suspected US spy arrested in Cyprus

              http://www.cyprus-mail.com/cyprus/breaking-news-su=
                    spected-us-spy-arrested-cyprus/20100629

                                     =C2=A0

     Published on June 29, 2010 =

     Robert Christopher Metsos, 55, was arrested at Larnaca airport at 3 am
     while preparing to board a flight to Budapest.

     He is suspected of being involved in a Russian spy ring operating in the
     USA.

     U.S. authorities said the spy ring carried out deep-cover work in the
     United States to recruit political sources and gather information for
     the Russian government.

     Authorities in the US charged 11 individuals with the plot, 10 of whom
     were arrested on Sunday in Boston, New York, New Jersey and Virginia on
     charges including conspiracy to act as unlawful agents of the Russian
     Federation and money laundering.

     Those charged include: Christopher Metsos, Richard Murphy, Cynthia
     Murphy, Donald Heathfield, Tracey Lee Ann Foley, Michael Zottoli,
     Patricia Mills, Juan Lazaro, Vicky Pelaez, Anna Chapman and Mikhail
     Semenko. All but Metsos were arrested on Sunday.

     Metsos was arrested on Monday but was later released on a
     =E2=82=AC20,000 bail after agreeing to surrender his travel documents
     and appear at a police station every day.

     Metsos came to Cyprus on June 17 and stayed at a Larnaca hotel since
     then.

     His extradition hearing will begin on July 29</= o:p>

     =C2=A0

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2010-06-29 14:47:42",1,"2012-03-14 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1558772_re-g3-cyprus-us-russia-suspected-us-spy-arrested-in-cyprus-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,analysts@stratfor.com,tactical@stratfor.com",""
1566478,"comrade J paragraph
","   Countersurveillance operations dona**t start out of thin air.A  There has
   to be a tip or a clue that puts investigators on the trail of a suspected
   and (especially) undeclared foreign agent. As suggested by interview with
   neighbors of the arrested suspects, none of them displayed unusual
   behavior that would tip them off. All had deep (even if not perfect) cover
   stories that did not raise suspicion. The criminal complaint did not
   suggest how the US government came to suspect these people of reporting
   back to the SVR in Russia, however we noticed that the timing of the
   initiation of these investigations coincides with the time period that a
   high level SVR agent stationed at Russiaa**s UN mission in New York began
   passing information to the US. Sergei Tretyakov (who told his story in the
   book a**Comrade Ja** a** his codename), passed information on to US
   authorities from within the UN mission from 1997 to 2000 before he
   defected to the US. The timing of Tretyakova**s cooperation with the US
   government and the timing of the initiation of the investigations against
   the suspects arrested this week suggests that Tretyakov may have been the
   original source that tipped off the US government. So far, the evidence is
   circumstantial a** the timing and the location match up a** but Tretyakov,
   as the SVR operative at the UN mission, certainly would have been in the
   position to know about the operations involving at least some of the
   individuals arrested June 27. A A 

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890
","2010-06-29 22:30:12",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1566478_comrade-j-paragraph-.html","ben.west@stratfor.com","","sean.noonan@stratfor.com",""
1566802,"Re: Insight Request - Turkey-Russia
","   Reva Bhalla wrote:

     Lauren, this is KICKASS. LOVE IT. Thank you so much for your work on
     this. Have comments in bold below
     On Feb 4, 2010, at 11:25 AM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       ON NUCLEAR DEAL
       From Reva: Cinar family's contract via ParkTeknic; Russia using this
       deal to show they can build reactors? Edge more into European market?
       Financing? Construction? Kickbacks?
        
       FROM SOURCE 1: deputy in energy ministry
        
       The nuclear deal between Russia and Turkey is still very new since it
       was signed on Jan. 13. Of course many of the details from the previous
       nuclear plan deal are being carried over to this deal, though nothing
       is set yet for it is the technocrats turn to write up the details. For
       now, it is just a political agreement with a few details and many
       proposals.
        
       The preparations for the details to finalize the deal will take
       between four to six months and the final signing should be no later
       than November. The plan is to have the details all worked out before
       President Medvedev goes to Turkey in the fall.
        
       Russia was concerned because of the competition for the other nuclear
       plans for the north part of Turkey by Sinopec and Turkish energy
       company Akenerji. Russia is not quite clear if that project is still
       planned or not.  
        
       I wouldn't call this deal any sort of move for Russia into Europe, for
       the Belene plant is already under construction in Bulgaria and plans
       to pour concrete on the new plant in Belarus will happen before the
       deal is finalized on this Turkish plant.   ok, as i suspected
        
       The deal will be between the same firms as last time: Inter RAO,
       Atomstroiexport, and Park Teknik.
        
       Russia is adamant that it be highly involved in this project on all
       levels-financing, construction, engineering, fuel. The way Putin put
       it in his meeting was that Russia would provide the loans, provide the
       equipment, oversee the local construction companies, take on 20-30
       percent of the contracts in Russian firms, provide the nuclear fuel
       and reprocess the spent nuclear fuel.   wow, that's pretty generous of
       Russia, no? seems like they're getting alot in return iwth the
       kickbacks listed below.
        
       Taking the spent nuclear fuel is a huge cost that Putin said Russia is
       willing to do at a discount. It was one of the aspects that Turkey
       really liked in this deal. Russia is also willing to give discounts in
       other areas, as well as, give very attractive rates on financing--
       though this is all to be worked out over the next 6 months.
        
       The deal wasn't just for the nuclear plant but Turkey is also going to
       allow Russia's Inter RAO to build a series of electricity power plant
       in the country as well-a very big project and one that Inter RAO has
       lobbied for for some time.
        
       Other kickbacks? There are a lot of deals about to go down between
       Russia and Turkey. It isn't about just the nuclear plant or the
       pipeline, but an overall understanding with a lot of things that could
       be considered kickbacks one way or another. Russia is being given the
       opportunity for first bid on some Turkish state assets  ooh, can you
       find out which ones? He completely clammed up on this after I pushed,
       so I'm trying other sources to see if I can find out what. about to be
       privatized; Russia and Turkey will be nixing their visa regime (an
       important symbolic gesture in Moscow's mind); Turkey is also asking
       its banks to use more rubles and will be settling some payments using
       the ruble; Turkey will continue to putter about any firm commitment to
       Nabucco. Russia is pretty happy over these deals.

       ON SAMSUN-CEYHAN PIPELINE:  
       From Reva: Built by Eni & Calik; Russia to supply the crude?
       Financing? Constructing? Russian kickbacks?
        
       FROM SOURCE 1: deputy in energy ministry
        
       The crude for the S-C pipeline will come from both Russia and
       Kazakhstan. Turkmenistan would also like to give crude, but they have
       not been in on the new set of negotiations.
        
       From what my source has heard, Eni has offered $4 billion for the
       \"project\" this is 1.5 for the pipeline and then 2.5 for electricity
       plants that have been earmarked onto this project (a Russia part of
       the deal).
        
       As far as the Chalik Group, they were not in on the negotiations and
       have not negotiated with Russia one-on-one as far as the S-C pipeline.
       Instead, Erdogan negotiated this deal, though it is not as if Chalik
       and Erdogan are separate. Their political pacts stretch in deals
       across the former Soviet states. Chalik has received much financial
       backing from his relationship with Erdogan, who has set state banks to
       backing many of Chalik's enterprises. Chalik also has a very close
       personal relationship with President Gul. Chalik does not like to do
       business personally with Russia when he can help it. Russia also
       prefers to do business with Erdogan which represents him essentially.
        
       So as far as the S-C is concerned, it is a Russia-Turkey deal, not a
       Chalik-Russia deal. It does not matter to us who Ergodan chooses to
       run the line on his side.  makes sense. Calik is Erdogan's project
        
        
       FROM SOURCE 2 - part of foreign affairs thinktank, energy specialist
        
       The S-C pipeline is being renegotiated after Erdogan's trip to Moscow.
       Turkey agreed to allow Russia a third of the project, moving the other
       two partners of Chalik and Eni to a third each as well. However, Italy
       has not yet agreed to this. why is Italy resisting? it seemed to me
       that they weren't resisting, but had yet to be consulted. Russia feels
       that there will be no problem in getting Italy to agree to it as long
       as Turkey sticks to this new deal. This will create a tripartite
       consortium for the project.
        
       Both Rosneft and Transneft are interested in not only being part of
       the tripartite, but should the consortium stay the 50-50 venture only
       between Eni and Chalik, then both Rosneft and Transneft are interested
       in being the construction companies in the project instead.
        
       The big competitor for the S-C pipeline, the Burgas-Alexandropoulis
       pipeline, has been halted though its already under construction with
       Transneft as a partner. The Bulgarian government has been testy
       recently, something that Russia doesn't want to put up with Sofia and
       is letting it know that there are other options for Russian projects
       and crude.
        
       The agreement between Turkey and Russia was not only over the
       pipeline, but the so-called kickbacks you mention are in further
       agreements coming up in which Russia will take part in privatization
       of Turkey's state assets. Russia of course doesn't call it kickbacks,
       but \"asset swaps.\"
        
       I have not heard of any trades between deals in Turkmenistan over the
       S-C deal.
        
        
       ON CALIK'S DEALS IN TURKMENISTAN
        
       FROM SOURCE 3 - Turkmen deputy minister
        
       There is a long, deep and personal history between Chalik and
       Turkmenistan, much of which does not have to do with Russia. Ahmet
       Chalik was a very close personal friend of blessed Turkmenbashi. Ahmet
       Chalik advised Turkmenbashi on many foreign matters, set up many tasks
       for the leader and even held many illustrious government positions.
        
       It is of my opinion-and I do not wish to speak ill of my departed
       leader-that Chalik fed on Turkmenbashi's ego, promising him that he
       could help Niyazov spread his influence into Turkey and other
       Turkish-speaking lands. It was Chalik who translated the Ruhnama into
       Turkish, English and French (Chalik even used the Ruhnama in his
       meetings where Turkish media was present in order to promote the book
       on behalf of Niyazov). It was Chalik who set up his friends from
       Turkey-Polimeks Group-to construct the great gold statues and arches
       of dedicated to the leader in Turkmenistan. wow!! love it!!

       Chalik was the contractor on the construction projects dedicated to
       Turkmenbashi like the National Library, Center for Culture and World
       of Turkmen Fairy Tales.
        
       Chalik truly was a slick eel in his dealing with Turkmenbashi, not
       that our departed leader knew this. In return Chalik reaped enormous
       wealth, deals and business in Turkmenistan-more than I had seen from
       anyone else in this country. Chalik was given rights to a series of
       textile plants (especially of the highly valued cotton trade from
       Turkmenistan, much to Mary's dismay). Chalik's GAP Insaat built
       factories-paper, cement, ammonia, fertilizer.
        
       When Chalik was given the S-C pipeline, he swore that it would be only
       Turkmen crude to fill the line. Even when Erdogan met with Niyazov in
       2003, Erdogan was the political force behind the deal. Erdogan used
       Chalik to form his own relationship with Turkmenbashi. Back in 2003,
       this was a deal between Turkmenistan and Turkey to not use Russian
       crude-something that greatly angered Moscow.
        
       It was Erdogan, Gul and Chalik who stood side-by-side at Niyazov's
       funeral representing Turkey.
        
       But everything changed with Turkmenbashi's death. Berdimukhammedov is
       not so friendly with Chalik, Erdogan or Gul. He does not trust their
       agenda and can not be swayed by flattery or ego-stroking. In
       Berdimukhammedov's view, Chalik has too much pushed his Turkish social
       and political viewpoints into Turkmenistan. Chalik has attempted to
       spread Islamic education and business principles into Turkmenistan. In
       short, Chalik is dangerous.
        
       So from what I know, Chalik can not even use Erdogan to strike deals
       on his behalf here in Turkmenistan. I have heard of some deals being
       struck by the Russians on the Turk's behalf. But the Russians are
       striking deals for many of the Turkish firms, not just Chalik. Russia
       has helped protect Turkish deals that Berdimukhammedov wanted to close
       down from Engin Group, Erdemir, Som Petrol, Ichkale and others.
        
        
       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       Stratfor
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-02-04 18:43:58",1,"2012-03-19 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1566802_re-insight-request-turkey-russia-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,emre.dogru@stratfor.com",""
1571365,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
","   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marc Lanthemann\" <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-14 20:55:23",1,"2012-02-28 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1571365_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1576235,"Re: [MESA] [OS] TURKEY - Naval forces junta planned to	undermineAKParty
 with non-Muslim assassinations
","   It is owned by a publishing house called \"Alkim\". Not owned by one of the
   big media groups. Two senior columnists and general directors:
   - Ahmet Altan: A prominent Turkish novelist. Comes from a Altan family.
   His father is Cetin Altan (journalist of Milliyet and former deputy). His
   brother is Mehmet Altan. He is an economist involved in politics more as
   an intellectual.
   - Yasemin Congar: Former CNNTURK correspondent to Washington DC.

   I don't know their relation with AKP. They don't always write pro-AKP but
   of course everything anti-TSK is in favor of AKP. The most important news
   of Taraf (at least according to me) was this: PKK attacked a border check
   point last year and killed eight soldiers. Taraf published satellite
   pictures of terrorists approaching to the check-point eight hours before
   the attack and accused the army of failing to take action against them.
   Plus, it found out that the most high-ranking soldiers of that unit left
   the commandment that day. Gen. Basbug could not give a satisfactory
   answer.

   Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     Who owns it and what is its relationship to the AKP? How old is it and
     how large of a circulation?

     ---

     Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Michael Wilson <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
     Date: Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:57:51 -0600
     To: <bokhari@stratfor.com>; Middle East AOR<mesa@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: [MESA] [OS] TURKEY - Naval forces junta planned to
     undermine AKParty with non-Muslim assassinations
     This is what Emre's turkey media list had to say about it

     Taraf: Liberal-Democrat, anti-TSK. Almost all documents we see in media
     about TSK (coup strategies, weaknesses of TSK during PKK operations
     etc.) are published by Taraf.

     Kamran Bokhari wrote:

       Isn't Taraf a pro-AKP paper?

       ---

       Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Michael Wilson <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
       Date: Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:49:39 -0600
       To: Middle East AOR<mesa@stratfor.com>
       Subject: Re: [MESA] [OS] TURKEY - Naval forces junta planned to
       undermine AK Party with non-Muslim assassinations
       wow, that sounds pretty hardcore, what's the plausibility of this/how
       does it coming out now affect what's been going on in Turkey between
       the military and the AKP

       emre?

       Emre Dogru wrote:

         http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/news-193416-naval-forces-junta-planned-to-undermine-ak-party-with-non-muslim-assassinations.html
         Naval forces junta planned to undermine AK Party with non-Muslim
         assassinations

         An anti-democratic formation within the Naval Forces Command planned
         to destroy the governing Justice and Development Party (AK Party) by
         assassinating prominent non-Muslim figures in Turkey and putting the
         blame for the killings on the party, Taraf daily reported in its
         headline story on Thursday.

         The plan was detailed in a CD seized in the office of retired Maj.
         Levent Bektas, who was arrested in April for suspected links to a
         large cache of munitions unearthed during excavations on land owned
         by the Istek Foundation in Istanbul's Poyrazko:y district. That
         discovery came as part of the investigation into Ergenekon, a
         clandestine gang whose suspected members are currently standing
         trial on charges of having plotted to overthrow the government.

         Police raided Bektas's office shortly after the discovery and seized
         a large number of documents and CDs. A technical analysis showed
         that a sinister plan against the country's non-Muslim population was
         detailed in one of the CDs, called the \"Cage Operation Action Plan.\"
         The plan was signed by Lt. Col. Ercan Kirec,tepe and was planned to
         be put into operation by a team of 41 members of the Naval Forces
         Command. The hoped-for result from the assassinations of prominent
         non-Muslim figures and propaganda and would be an increase in
         internal and external pressure on the AK Party, leading to its
         demise in politics, according to the plan.

         The action plan would be implemented to lend support to the suspects
         arrested so far as part of the Ergenekon investigation; render
         ineffective so-called psychological warfare waged by the AK Party
         and its supporters (against the military); change the course of the
         agenda in Turkey; boost the morale of the junta within the Naval
         Forces Command; and win the appreciation and support of the public.
         The blame for each of the assassinations by the junta would be put
         on the AK Party.

         The plan was divided into four phases; \"Preparation,\" \"Raising
         Fear,\" \"Shaping Public Opinion\" and \"Action.\"

         As part of the \"Preparation\" phase, the names and addresses of the
         country's prominent non-Muslims would be determined. Then it would
         be ascertained to which newspapers and magazines they subscribe;
         which schools non-Muslims work for or send their children to; which
         associations or foundations they are members of; which places of
         worship they frequent; and where they hold their religious
         celebrations and rituals.

         Then the action plan would jump to the second phase, which consisted
         of posting the subscribers of a Turkish Armenian biweekly, Agos, on
         a number of Web sites, especially the \"reactionary\" ones. The
         editor-in-chief of Agos, Hrant Dink, was shot dead in 2007 by an
         ultranationalist Turkish adolescent. Letters that included
         threatening messages would be sent to Agos subscribers, and they
         would also receive threatening phone calls. Similar messages would
         be written on a number of walls of buildings in the Adalar district,
         which is home to hundreds of non-Muslim families.

         In the \"Shaping Public Opinion\" phase, the list of Agos subscribers
         would make its way into some newspapers, and fabricated reports on
         the list would feature in those newspapers. TV debates would focus
         on the reports and columnists would be urged to write columns on
         them. The AK Party government would be accused of ignoring the
         \"approaching threat\" to the country's non-Muslim population in the
         debates. Media would recall the Sept. 6-7, 1955 incidents, a
         state-sponsored campaign designed to transfer capital from minority
         businessmen to Muslim Turks and to intimidate non-Turkish
         communities into leaving their homeland to clear the way for a
         homogeneous Turkish state. Several Web sites would be established to
         disseminate propaganda against the AK Party and criticize its
         domestic policies. The Web sites would have such names as
         \"www.tehditaltindayiz.com\" (We are under threat) and
         \"www.agosasahipcikalim.com\" (Let's protect Agos).

         The most appalling phase of the plan, \"Action,\" would include the
         assassination of prominent non-Muslim figures. As part of this
         phase, bomb attacks would be launched in Adalar; figures who defend
         the rights of non-Muslims would be assassinated; percussion bombs
         would be planted in places close to Agos; boats carrying passengers
         to the Adalar district would be bombed; prominent non-Muslim
         businessmen and artists would be kidnapped; and their homes and
         offices would be set on fire. Individuals would claim responsibility
         for the incidents on behalf of \"reactionary terrorist
         organizations.\"

         At that point, propaganda would step in, pointing to the AK Party as
         the cause of the incidents. The party would be accused of falling
         short of ensuring the security of non-Muslims in the country. The
         action plan defined Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan as an
         \"enemy.\"

         The action plan called the killings of Armenian-Turkish journalist
         Hrant Dink, Catholic priest Andrea Santoro and three Christians in
         Malatya an \"operation.\" The group aimed at fomenting chaos in
         society with those killings, but complained that the plan failed
         when large groups protested the killings in mass demonstrations.
         \"The operations created a large public outcry that non-Muslims in
         the country were the target of reactionary groups. But society stood
         by non-Muslims with a `We are all Armenians' campaign. Now, we will
         continue the propaganda, showing that the cause behind the killings
         was the AK Party and reactionary organizations,\" read the plan.

         The plan also revealed that the anti-democratic formation within the
         Naval Forces Command was being led by three admirals, identified
         with their initials F.O:., K.S. and M.F.I. Retired Maj. Levent
         Bektas, Lt. Col. Ercan Kirec,tepe, retired Col. Levent Go:ktas and
         Maj. Emre Onat also worked for the junta. All of them were arrested
         as part of the ongoing Ergenekon probe.

         Among other members of the formation were sergeant majors Halil
         Cura, Saddetin Dogan, Feridun Arslan; Maj. Emre Sezenler; and Maj.
         Emre Gu:nay. All of them were employed at the Marmara Regional
         Command. Other members at the same command were identified by their
         initials, sergeant majors D.E, T.V.A., H.D. and I.B.

         Among the members of the group at the Marmara Regional Command were
         Col. M.S., Col. Levent Gu:lmen, Maj. Erbay C,olakoglu, Maj. A.A.S.,
         Capt. B.A., Lt. Gen. B.C,., Sgt. Maj. M.A., Sgt. Maj. M.A., Maj.
         G.Y., Capt. U:.O:., Capt. B.K., Sgt. Maj. D.M., Sgt. Maj. H.E., Sgt.
         Maj. M.I. and Sgt. Maj. A.B.

         The group also had members from the Black Sea Regional Command,
         including Capt. I.Z.T., Capt. I.L.O., Maj. O:.E., Sgt. Maj. T.D.,
         Sgt. Maj. M.A. and Sgt. Maj. M.K.
         Ammunition excavated in Poyrazko:y

         Ten light anti-tank weapons, 20 percussion bombs, three other bombs,
         250 grams of C4 explosives, 19 emergency flares, 10 hand grenades,
         800 G3 bullets and a large number of cartridges for revolvers were
         found on the Istek Foundation land. The discovery followed the
         unearthing of similar underground weapons caches in January during
         digs based on maps found in the homes of two suspects -- former
         Deputy Police Chief Ibrahim Sahin and Mustafa Do:nmez, a lieutenant
         colonel who turned himself in a few days after a warrant for his
         arrest was issued.

         19 November 2009

 --
 C. Emre Dogru
 STRATFOR Intern
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 +1 512 226 3111

 --
 Michael Wilson
 STRATFOR
 Austin, Texas
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex. 4112

 --
 Michael Wilson
 STRATFOR
 Austin, Texas
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex. 4112

 --
 C. Emre Dogru
 STRATFOR Intern
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 +1 512 226 3111
","2009-11-20 00:12:53",1,"2012-03-12 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1576235_re-mesa-os-turkey-naval-forces-junta-planned-to.html","emre.dogru@stratfor.com","","bokhari@stratfor.com,mesa@stratfor.com",""
1576512,"US/CT- Occupy Wall Street Background
","   *these were sent out before, but bringing them up again
   Occupy Wall Street: FAQ
   Nathan Schneider
   September 29, 2011 
   http://www.thenation.com/article/163719/occupy-wall-street-faq

   Q: I hear that Adbusters organized Occupy Wall Street? Or Anonymous? Or US
   Day of Rage? Just who put this together anyway?

   A: All of the above, and more. Adbusters made the initial call in
   mid-July, and also produced a very sexy poster with a ballerina posed atop
   the Charging Bull statue and riot police in the background. US Day of
   Rage, the mainly internet-based creation of IT strategist Alexa O'Brien,
   got involved too and did a lot of the early legwork and tweeting.
   Anonymous-in its various and multiform visages-joined in late August. On
   the ground in New York, though, most of the planning was done by people
   involved in the NYC General Assembly, a collection of activists, artists
   and students first convened by folks who had been involved in New Yorkers
   Against Budget Cuts. That coalition of students and union workers had just
   finished a three-week occupation near City Hall called Bloombergville
   protesting the mayor's plans for budget cuts and layoffs. They had learned
   from the experience and were itching to do it again, this time with the
   hope of having a bigger impact. But no one person or group is running the
   Wall Street occupation entirely.
   Media
   [ Click for More ]

       Activist at Occupy Wall Street

   [Click to View]
   Video: Voices From Liberty Square
   We Recommend
   Watch the Livestream From Occupy Wall Street (Activism, Politics)

   Watch a live video feed from Occupy Wall Street.
   The Nation
   About the Author
   Nathan Schneider
   Nathan Schneider is an editor for the blogs Waging Nonviolence and Killing
   the Buddha, an online magazine of...
   Also by The Author
   From Occupy Wall Street to Occupy Everywhere (Activism)

   In three months, an idea and a hashtag became a worldwide movement. Here's
   how they did it.
   Nathan Schneider
   12 comments
   Occupation Nation Goes to Washington (Occupy Wall Street, Activism,
   Economy, Politics)

   The Wall Street protesters have created the template for an ambitious new
   occupation in the nation's capital.
   Nathan Schneider
   Related Topics
   Entertainment Human Interest Natural Disaster Religion Social Issues
   Technology War

   So nobody is in charge? How do decisions get made?

   The General Assembly has become the de facto decision-making body for the
   occupation at Liberty Plaza, just a few blocks north of Wall Street. (That
   was Zuccotti Park's name before 2006, when the space was rebuilt by
   Brookfield Properties and renamed after its chairman, John Zuccotti.) Get
   ready for jargon: the General Assembly is a horizontal, autonomous,
   leaderless, modified-consensus-based system with roots in anarchist
   thought, and it's akin to the assemblies that have been driving recent
   social movements around the world, in places like Argentina, Egypt's
   Tahrir Square, Madrid's Puerta del Sol and so on. Working toward consensus
   is really hard, frustrating and slow. But the occupiers are taking their
   time. When they finally get to consensus on some issue, often after days
   and days of trying, the feeling is quite incredible. A mighty cheer fills
   the plaza. It's hard to describe the experience of being among hundreds of
   passionate, rebellious, creative people who are all in agreement about
   something.

   Fortunately, though, they don't need to come to consensus about
   everything. Working alongside the General Assembly are an ever-growing
   number of committees and working groups-from Food and Media to Direct
   Action and Sanitation. Anyone is welcome to join one, and they each do
   their own thing, working in tacit coordination with the General Assembly
   as a whole. In the end, the hope is that every individual is empowered to
   make decisions and act as her or himself, for the good of the group.

   What are the demands of the protesters?

   Ugh-the zillion-dollar question. Again, the original Adbusters call asked,
   \"What is our one demand?\" Technically, there isn't one yet. In the weeks
   leading up to September 17, the NYC General Assembly seemed to be veering
   away from the language of \"demands\" in the first place, largely because
   government institutions are already so shot through with corporate money
   that making specific demands would be pointless until the movement grew
   stronger politically. Instead, to begin with, they opted to make their
   demand the occupation itself-and the direct democracy taking place
   there-which in turn may or may not come up with some specific demand. When
   you think about it, this act is actually a pretty powerful statement
   against the corruption that Wall Street has come to represent. But since
   thinking is often too much to ask of the American mass media, the question
   of demands has turned into a massive PR challenge.

   The General Assembly is currently in the midst of determining how it will
   come to consensus about unifying demands. It's a really messy and
   interesting discussion. But don't hold your breath.

   Everyone in the plaza comes with their own way of thinking about what
   they'd like to see happen, of course. Along the north end of the plaza,
   there's a collage of hundreds of cardboard signs people have made with
   slogans and demands on them. Bystanders stop and look at them, transfixed,
   all day long. The messages are all over the place, to be sure, but there's
   also a certain coherence to them. That old standby, \"People Before
   Profits,\" seems to capture the gist fairly well. But also under discussion
   are a variety of other issues, ranging from ending the death penalty, to
   dismantling the military-industrial complex, to affordable healthcare, to
   more welcoming immigration policies. And more. It can be confusing, but
   then again these issues are all at some level interconnected.

   Some news reports have been painting the protesters as unfocused, or
   worse, as hopelessly confused and uninformed. Is there any truth to that?

   Sure. In a world as complex as ours, we're all uninformed about most
   things, even if we know about a few. I remember a police officer remarking
   of the protesters on the first or second day, \"They think they know
   everything!\" That's how young people generally are. But in this case,
   noticing the over-concentration of wealth around Wall Street and its
   outsized influence in politics does not require a detailed grasp of what a
   hedge fund does or the current selling price of Apple stock. One thing
   that distinguishes these protesters is precisely their hope that a better
   world is possible. I might add that, for many Americans, such nonviolent
   direct action is the only chance of having a political voice, and it
   deserves to be taken seriously by those of us in the press.

   How many people have responded to the Adbusters call? How large is the
   group? And how large has it ever been?

   The original Adbusters call envisioned 20,000 people flooding the
   Financial District on September 17. A tenth of that probably ended up
   being there that day. Despite a massive Anonymous-powered online social
   media blitz, lots of people simply didn't know about it, and traditional
   progressive organizations like labor unions and peace groups were
   uncomfortable signing on to so amorphous an action. Over the course of a
   difficult first week, with arrests happening just about every day, new
   faces kept coming, as others filtered out to take a break. The media
   coverage after last weekend's mass arrests and alleged police brutality
   has brought many more. Now, during the day and into the night, one finds
   500 or more people in the plaza, and maybe half that sleeping over. At any
   given time, several thousand people around the world are watching the
   occupation's 24/7 livestream online.

   Rather than a mass movement from the outset, this occupation has ended up
   depending on a relatively small number of highly determined, courageous
   young activists willing to sleep outside and confront police intimidation.
   But that is changing. As word spreads about it, the crowd has been getting
   older, more diverse. Already, though, this tactic of a somewhat rowdy
   occupation has garnered influence far greater than a traditional march
   would. After all, 20,000 marched on Wall Street on May 12-protesting bank
   bailouts and budget cuts for state employees-and who remembers that?

   What would a \"win\" look like for the occupation?

   Again, that depends on whom you ask. As September 17 approached, the NYC
   General Assembly really saw its goal, again, not so much as to pass some
   piece of legislation or start a revolution as to build a new kind of
   movement. It wanted to foment similar, like-minded assemblies around the
   city and around the world, which would be a new basis for political
   organizing in this country, against the overwhelming influence of
   corporate money. That is starting to happen, as similar occupations are
   cropping up in dozens of other cities. Another big occupation has been in
   the making for months, slated to begin on October 6 at Freedom Plaza in
   Washington, DC, and the organizers of that have been visiting Liberty
   Plaza on and off, learning all they can from its successes and mistakes.

   I've heard some people saying, when Liberty Plaza was swamped with TV news
   cameras, \"We've already won!\" Others think they've hardly begun. Both, in
   some sense, are true.

   Are there cops all over the square? How bad has the police brutality been?
   If I came there, what are the risks?

   The police presence is nonstop, and there have been some very scary
   encounters with them-which also gave occasion for tremendous acts of
   courage by protesters. The worst incident was last Saturday, of course,
   but there has been very little trouble since then. A large contingent of
   protesters has no intention of getting arrested, and almost nobody is
   interested in taking pointless risks or instigating violence against
   people or property. The more that ordinary people join the cause-together
   with celebrity visitors like Susan Sarandon, Cornel West and Michael
   Moore-the less likely the police will probably be to try to suppress it.
   As one sign along Broadway says, \"Safety in Numbers! Join Us!\"

   Nonetheless, challenging the powers that be-and doing so impolitely,
   outside the bounds of a permit-is never going to be 100 percent safe. To
   the extent that this movement is effective, it will also carry risks. If
   you take part, it's not a bad idea to keep the National Lawyers Guild's
   phone number written on your arm, just in case.

   If I can't come to Wall Street, what else can I do?

   A lot of people are already taking part in important ways from afar-this
   is the magic of decentralization. Online, you can watch the livestream,
   make donations, retweet on Twitter and encourage your friends to get
   interested. People with relevant skills have been volunteering to help
   maintain the movement's websites and edit video-coordinating through IRC
   chat rooms and other social media. Soon, the formal discussions about
   demands will be happening online as well as in the plaza. Offline, you can
   join the numerous similar occupations that are starting up around the
   country or start your own.

   Finally, you can always take the advice that has become one of the several
   mantras of the movement, expressed this way by one woman at Tuesday
   night's General Assembly meeting: \"Occupy your own heart,\" she said, \"not
   with fear but with love.\"
   Nathan Schneider
   September 29, 2011  

   How Occupy Wall Street has Evolved

   http://money.cnn.com/2011/10/06/technology/occupy_wall_street/index.htm?hpt=hp_t2

   NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- When Occupy Wall Street began on September 17, the
   protest consisted of a few hundred people speaking out about corporate
   greed and inequality. They practiced tai chi in a park near Wall Street,
   painted homemade signs and discussed what their demands should be.

   Now, almost three weeks later, the once-haphazard movement is growing
   larger and more coordinated. Hundreds of people have been arrested. Large
   labor unions, including the AFL-CIO and SEIU, have joined in. When new
   arrivals turn out, volunteers swiftly equip them with donated sleeping
   bags and food. Dozens of cities nationwide have launched their own
   \"occupy\" protests in solidarity.

   Like the \"Arab Spring\" uprisings that inspired its tactics, Occupy Wall
   Street is evolving.

   From the beginning, organizers -- including activist magazine Adbusters,
   which hatched the idea and put out a call for participants back in July --
   have said they hope protesters will occupy Manhattan's Financial District
   for two months. On Day 1, no one knew what that would look like. Fast
   forward to Day 19, and Zuccotti Park is loaded with makeshift camps and
   organized \"stations\": medical, food, legal, media, security and more.

   Food and blankets have come in from donors all over the nation, said Matt
   Ingram, who was volunteering at the \"Comfort\" station on Wednesday.

   \"It's incredible to see the outpouring of support from people who can't be
   here,\" said Ingram, 28. \"It reminds you that there's still humanity, and
   that people are inherently good.\"
   Meet the Occupy Wall Street protesters

   The support from labor unions, which began signing on in late September,
   has brought hundreds more to the scene. Representatives from the groups
   have garnered attention by sending press releases about the protest.

   \"It brings us more people and more attention,\" said one twenty-something
   man who declined to give his name. \"I don't think that their cause is the
   same as most people here. But we're all angry about something, so I guess
   it's OK.\"

   The crowd and atmosphere shift depending on the day of the week. It's
   tough to leave your day job for two months straight, and so the number of
   protesters dwindles on weekdays, when those present tend to be college
   students, the unemployed and retired people. Weekends ramp back up again,
   with a larger and more diverse crowd turning out.

   Day-by day highlights: Before the protest began on Saturday, Sept. 17, the
   New York Police Department closed off Wall Street and barricaded the
   iconic bull on Broadway. A few hundred protesters gathered around the bull
   and in nearby Zuccotti Park, with the crowd growing to about 500 by the
   evening.

   On Day 3, a misty Monday, the number of protesters had fallen to about 125
   people. But the following weekend brought hundreds more people -- and the
   first spate of arrests.

   The NYPD closed Broadway that Saturday -- Day 8 of the demonstration --
   and protesters marched down the avenue. Photographer Daniel Fitzsimmons
   said that day that \"a protestor dropped to his knees in front of the Chase
   Bank on Wall Street, saying the bank took his parents' house. He was later
   arrested.\"

   Around Day 12, labor unions began signing on to show their support.

   On Day 15, this past Saturday, the tone changed sharply. The protesters
   extended the rally to Brooklyn Bridge, where hundreds were arrested and
   later released with tickets for blocking the roadway.

   \"Over 700 summonses and desk appearance tickets have been issued in
   connection with the demonstration on the Brooklyn Bridge ... after
   multiple warnings by police were given to protesters to stay on the
   pedestrian walkway,\" said NYPD Deputy Commissioner Paul Browne.

   Browne said authorities had warned protesters they would be arrested.
   Bridge traffic heading to Brooklyn from Manhattan was shut down for
   several hours.

   A few hundred people remained at Zuccotti Park on Day 19, Oct. 5,
   preparing for a late-afternoon march from Foley Square to the Financial
   District.

   Meanwhile, an Occupy Philadelphia is slated to launch Thursday, joining
   protests in Los Angeles, Boston, San Francisco, Denver and Chicago, among
   other cities.

   The protest has drawn some criticism for its lack of concrete goals. But
   the fact that Occupy Wall Street is still going strong 19 days later means
   it's done what it set out to do: Draw focus to the concerns -- and anger
   -- many Americans have about the country's growing economic gap, plant the
   seed of an organized voice, and let the protest evolve naturally.

   \"We're showing that 'we the people' really are here, present, from all
   walks of life,\" said Tammy Bick, 49, an unemployed former medical
   secretary. \"It's a meeting of the minds and a voicing of our issues. That
   alone makes it the best single experience of my life.\" To top of page
   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-16 16:28:28",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1576512_us-ct-occupy-wall-street-background-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1576594,"US/CT- Meet the Guy Who Snitched on Occupy Wall Street to the FBI
 and NYPD
","   email archive is available here:
   http://biggovernment.com/thomasryan/2011/10/14/the-email-archive-of-the-occupywallstreet-movement-anarchists-socialists-jihadists-unions-democrats/

   Meet the Guy Who Snitched on Occupy Wall Street to the FBI and NYPD
   By Adrian Chen
   Oct 15, 2011 4:47 PM
   http://gawker.com/5850054/meet-the-guy-who-snitched-on-occupy-wall-street-to-the-fbi-and-nypd

   The Occupy Wall Street protests have been going on for a month. And it
   seems the FBI and NYPD have had help tracking protesters' moves thanks to
   a conservative computer security expert who gained access to one of the
   group's internal mailing lists, and then handed over information on the
   group's plans to authorities and corporations targeted by protesters.

   Since the Occupy Wall Street protest began on September 17, New York
   security consultant Thomas Ryan has been waging a campaign to infiltrate
   and discredit the movement. Ryan says he's done contract work for the U.S.
   Army and he brags on his blog that he leads \"a team called Black Cell, a
   team of the most-highly trained and capable physical, threat and cyber
   security professionals in the world.\" But over the past few weeks, he and
   his computer security buddies have been spending time covertly attending
   Occupy Wall Street meetings, monitoring organizers' social media accounts,
   and hanging out with protesters in Lower Manhattan.

   Full size
   As part of their intelligence-gathering operation, the group gained access
   to a listserv used by Occupy Wall Street organizers called
   September17discuss. On September17discuss, organizers hash out tactics and
   plan events, conduct post-mortems of media appearances, and trade the
   latest protest gossip. On Friday, Ryan leaked thousands of
   September17discuss emails to conservative blogger Andrew Breitbart, who is
   now using them to try to smear Occupy Wall Street as an anarchist
   conspiracy to disrupt global markets.

   What may much more alarming to Occupy Wall Street organizers is that while
   Ryan was monitoring September17discuss, he was forwarding interesting
   email threads to contacts at the NYPD and FBI, including special agent
   Jordan T. Loyd, a member of the FBI's New York-based cyber security team.

   Meet the Guy Who Snitched on Occupy Wall Street to the FBI and NYPDOn
   September 18th, the day after the protest's start, Ryan forwarded an email
   exchange between Occupy Wall Street organizers to Loyd. The email exchange
   is harmless: Organizers discuss how they need to increase union
   participation in the protest. \"We need more outreach to workers. The best
   way to do that is by showing solidarity with them,\" writes organizer
   Jackie DiSalvo in the thread. She then lists a group of potential unions
   to work with.

   Another organizer named Conor responds: \"+1,000,000 to Jackie's proposal
   on working people/union struggles outreach and solidarity. Also, why not
   invite people to protest Troy Davis's execution date at Liberty Plaza this
   Monday?\"

   Five minutes after Conor sent his email, Ryan forwarded the thread-with no
   additional comment-to Loyd's FBI email address. \"Thanks!\" Loyd responded.
   He cc'd his colleague named Ilhwan Yum, a fellow cybersecurity expert at
   the agency, on the reply.

   Meet the Guy Who Snitched on Occupy Wall Street to the FBI and NYPDOn
   September 26th, Ryan forwarded another email thread to Agent Loyd. But
   this time he clued in the NYPD as well, sending the email to Dennis
   Dragos, a detective with the NYPD Computer Crimes Squad.

   The NYPD might have been very grateful he did so, since it involved a
   proposed demonstration outside NYPD headquarters at 1 Police Plaza. In the
   thread, organizers debated whether to crash an upcoming press conference
   planned by marijuana advocates to celebrate NYPD commissioner Ray Kelly
   ordering officers to halt arrests over possession of small amounts of
   marijuana.

   \"Should we bring some folks from Liberty Plaza to chant \"SHAME\" for the
   NYPD's recent brutalities on Thursday night for the Troy Davis and
   Saturday for the Occupy Wall Street march?\" asked one person in the email
   thread. (That past Saturday, the video of NYPD officer Anthony Bologna
   pepper-spraying a protester had gone viral.) Ryan promptly forwarded the
   email thread to Loyd at the FBI and Dragos at the NYPD.

   Interestingly, it was Ryan who revealed himself as a snitch. We learned of
   these emails from the archive Ryan leaked yesterday in the hopes of
   undermining the Occupy Wall Street movement. In assembling the archive of
   September17discuss emails, it appears he accidentally included some of his
   own forwarded emails indicating he was ratting out organizers.

   \"I don't know, I just put everything I had into one big package,\" Ryan
   said when asked how the emails ended up in the file posted to Andrew
   Breitbart's blog. Some security expert.

   Meet the Guy Who Snitched on Occupy Wall Street to the FBI and NYPDBut
   Ryan didn't just tip off the authorities. He was also giving information
   to companies as well. When protesters discussed demonstrating in front of
   morning shows like Today and Good Morning America, Ryan quickly forwarded
   the thread to Mark Farrell, the chief security officer at Comcast, the
   parent company of NBC Universal.

   Ryan wrote:

       Since you are the CSO, I am not sure of your role in NBC since COMCAST
   owns them.
       There is a huge protest in New York call \"Occupy Wall Street\". Here is
   an email of stunts that they will try to pull on the TODAY show.

       We have been heavily monitoring Occupy Wall Street, and Anonymous.

   \"Thanks Tom,\" Farrell responded. \"I'll pass this to my counterpart at
   NBCU.\"

   Did the FBI and/or NYPD ask him to monitor Occupy Wall Street? Was he just
   forwarding the emails on out of the goodness of his heart? In a phone
   interview with us, Ryan denied being an informant. \"I do not work with the
   FBI,\" he said.

   Ryan said he knows Loyd through their mutual involvement in the Open Web
   Application Security Project, a non-profit computer security group of
   which Ryan is a board member. Ryan said he sent the emails to Loyd
   unsolicited simply because \"everyone's curious\" about Occupy Wall Street,
   and he had a ground-eye view. \"Jordan never asked me for anything.\"

   Was he sending every email he got to the authorities? Ryan said he
   couldn't remember how many he'd passed on to the FBI or NYPD, or other
   third parties. Later he said that he only forwarded the two emails we
   noticed, detailed above.

   Meet the Guy Who Snitched on Occupy Wall Street to the FBI and NYPDBut
   even if he'd been sending them on regularly, they were probably of limited
   use to the authorities. Most of the real organizing at Occupy Wall Street
   happens face-to-face, according to David Graeber, who was one of the
   earliest organizers. \"We did some practical work on [the email list] at
   first-I think that's where I first proposed the \"we are the 99%\" motto-but
   mainly it's just an expressive forum,\" he wrote in an email. \"No one would
   seriously discuss a plan to do something covert or dangerous on such a
   list.\"

   But regardless of how many emails Ryan sent-or whether Loyd ever asked
   Ryan to spy on Occupy Wall Street-Loyd was almost certainly interested in
   the emails he received. Loyd has helped hunt down members of the
   hacktivist collective Anonymous, and he and his colleagues in the FBI's
   cyber security squad have been monitoring their involvement in Occupy Wall
   Street.

   Meet the Guy Who Snitched on Occupy Wall Street to the FBI and NYPDAt a
   New York cyber security conference one day before the protest began, Loyd
   cited Occupy Wall Street as an example of a \"newly emerging threat to U.S.
   information systems.\" (In the lead-up to Occupy Wall Street, Anonymous had
   issued threats against the New York Stock Exchange.) He told the assembled
   crowd the FBI has been \"monitoring the event on cyberspace and are
   preparing to meet it with physical security,\" according to a New York
   Institute of Technology press release.

   We contacted Loyd to ask about his relationship with Ryan and if any of
   the information Ryan passed along was of any use to the agency. He
   declined to answer questions and referred us to the FBI's press office.
   We'll post an update if we hear back from them.

   We asked Ryan again this morning about how closely he was working with the
   authorities. Again, he claimed it was only these two emails, which is
   unlikely given he forwarded them to the FBI and NYPD without providing any
   context or explaining where he'd gotten them.

   And he detailed his rationale for assisting the NYPD:

       My respect for FDNY & NYPD stems from them risking their lives to save
   mine when my house was on fire in sunset park when I was 8 yrs old. Also,
   for them risking their lives and saving many family and friends during
   9/11.

       Don't you find it Ironic that out of all the NYPD involved with the
   protest, [protesters] have only targeted the ones with Black Ribbons,
   given to them for their bravery during 9/11?

       I am sorry if we see things differently, I try to look at everything
   as a whole and in patterns. Everything we do in life and happens in life,
   there is a pattern behind it.
   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-16 15:47:24",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1576594_us-ct-meet-the-guy-who-snitched-on-occupy-wall-street-to-the.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","os@stratfor.com",""
1579528,"RE: DRAFT BRIEF - TURKEY: Another case against AKP?
","   Thanks, Emre. I'll send this one to the list.

    

   From: Emre Dogru [mailto:emre.dogru@stratfor.com]
   Sent: February-19-10 12:02 PM
   To: Kamran Bokhari
   Cc: Reva Bhalla
   Subject: DRAFT BRIEF - TURKEY: Another case against AKP?

    

   I won't be at comp. but will check my email via iphone to see whether you
   think that this is good to go.

   The general prosecutor of Turkey, Abdurrahman Yalcinkaya, started an
   investigation against the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) over
   the allegations of AKP's interference to the judiciary, which may lead to
   another dissolution case against it. The two cases that Yalcinkaya will
   scrutinize are the allegations that AKP had arranged the judges to release
   PKK militants who surrendered (LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091030_turkey_bold_moves_kurdish_issue)
   in last October and the recent battle within the judiciary over the arrest
   of a prosecutor. (LINK:
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100217_turkey_battle_over_judiciary).
   The Constitutional Court, which is dominated by secularists, nearly
   outlawed Islamist-rooted AKP in October 2008 on the charge that AKP has
   become the center of anti-secularist activities. This time, too, AKP may
   be brought to the Court, if Yalcinkaya can prove that AKP politically
   interfered to legal cases. An unnamed senior AKP official, however, told
   to Turkish daily Radikal that the government will call snap election if
   the prosecutor opens the case, even though the Turkish Prime Minister
   Tayyip Erdogan repeated several times that the general elections will be
   held in 2011 as planned.

   --

 Emre Dogru

  

 STRATFOR

 +1.512.279.9468

 emre.dogru@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com
","2010-02-19 18:08:59",1,"2012-03-14 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1579528_re-draft-brief-turkey-another-case-against-akp-.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","","bhalla@stratfor.com,emre.dogru@stratfor.com",""
1586970,"Re: Anonymous and Occupy divergence...in the Iowa caucuses
","   occupying the caucasus themselves would be impossible -- as Sean noted its
   direct participatory democracy...each congressional district is split into
   not-so-small number of precincts, withe separate meeting places for
   democrats and republicans

   so my home town -- population 26k -- had 12 caucasus locations

   the greater des moines are (cue the laughter) would have something like 25
   times that

   and there is one other nice thing about Iowa -- the roads leading out are
   in immaculate condition

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   To: \"CT AOR\" <ct@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Peter Zeihan\" <peter.zeihan@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, November 9, 2011 9:30:51 PM
   Subject: Anonymous and Occupy divergence...in the Iowa caucuses

   Ironically after all my Anonymous bashing, i want to point out a very
   minor development. Mainly because it's funny to me. 

   I mentioned the Occupy Des Moines protest last week sometime.  It is very
   small, and a lot like Austin's.  They have been planning for a few weeks
   to Occupy the Iowa caucuses.  For those of you that don't know about the
   practice of the most important local democratic process in the world, the
   Iowa Caucuses are the first round of true competition between presidential
   candidates.  Unlike voting in a primary, it's more like a town hall
   meeting with much debate and discussion--a very open democratic form.  A
   candidate doesn't have to win Iowa necessarily to get the presidential
   nomination, but it serves to weed most of the bad ones early on in the
   race  (Iowans are fallible, they have made mistakes too). It's the one
   time that Iowa has an influence on politics, and I often say it is Iowa's
   one good thing.  I think it's January 3. 

   Back to the protestors.  Their plan has been developing to \"occupy\"
   candidate's offices.  That really means protest in front of the offices,
   which if you think of all the little shitty strip malls you see around,
   one small section would be a campaign office.  They have no security, and
   allow a lot of access to candidates if they choose to campaign in Iowa.
   The Occupy Des Moines group are not at all planning to disrupt the
   Caucuses functioning.  Though I wouldn't be surprised if they protested
   outside caucus meeting places, or more likely, brought their signs and
   slogans in with them.  These people are experienced organizers (as it
   comes to des moines), and know that if they have a political impact, one
   of the best places to aim it is the Caucuses. 

   Now here comes \"Anonymous.\"  Those of you that read the Wired background
   know that their real effect has been in popularizing \"memes.\"  One of
   these was actually Occupy Wall Street- 
   http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/20/occupy-wall-street-anonymous-connection_n_1021665.html 
   The mob of computer users and protest movement have been running on
   parallel tracks for awhile, and have served to mutually reinforce each
   other.

   Whoever from Anonymous made this new video about the Caucuses has made an
   ass out of themselves.  The video recommends actually shutting down the
   Caucuses.  That is both tactically dumb for the Occupy movement, but also
   totally antithetical to its general ideology.  For example, a Caucus
   functions very similarly to the Occupy General Assembly meetings--direct
   participatory democracy. 

   The Des Moines organizers have already spoken up- saying they have nothing
   to do with this \"Anonymous\" bullshit.  I'm happy to see I left them with
   some sense of realism.  This little event is not going to matter very
   much, but it shows how uncoordinated Anonymous is. 

   See the article below, the video is at the link. 

   Video calls for shutting down Iowa caucuses; the group Anonymous claims
   responsibility
   Jason Clayworth
   4:55 PM, Nov 6, 2011
   http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/11/06/video-calls-for-shutting-down-iowa-caucuses-the-group-anonymous-claims-responsibility/

   An anarchist-style movement that has caught the attention of the FBI and
   taken credit for hacking into military and corporate websites has now
   claimed responsibility for creating a video that urges its supporters to
   shut down the Iowa caucuses.

   Local authorities say they are aware of the video, are preparing for
   possible action by the group and are in contact with the presidential
   campaigns about the issue.

   A computer-generated voice in the online video, which had received more
   than 1,600 views by Sunday evening, says, a**Both parties are desecrating
   the American democracy and committing crimes against humanity on behalf of
   the American people.a**

   It continues: a**The primaries and caucuses put on by these parties are
   part of an elaborate scam that deceives the public into voting for
   candidates that serve the private interests of the mega corporations.
   These parties have deliberately driven tens of millions of people into
   poverty.a**

   It later says: a**We are calling upon you to occupy the campaign offices
   of presidential headquarters in Des Moines, Iowa, on Dec. 27, and
   peacefully shut down the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3.a**

   The group is believed to have no centralized operational leadership and
   appears to be piggybacking on the Occupy Des Moines movement.

   But Occupy Des Moines leaders say therea**s a difference: The Iowa
   groupa**s planned sit-ins at presidential campaign headquarters are not
   intended to shut down the Iowa caucuses, they say. Rather, they want to
   target presidential candidates and big-moneyed corporations that activists
   say are pulling the strings behind the scenes.

   While there are similarities between the groupsa** beliefs, they are
   separate, Occupy Des Moines participants emphasized Sunday.

   a**I dona**t like it one bit,a** former Rep. Ed Fallon, a Des Moines
   Democrat and participant in Occupy Des Moines, said of the video on
   Sunday. a**It doesna**t fit with my definition of Gandhi- and Martin
   Luther King Jr.-style nonviolence. The core of nonviolent action is truth.
   And if you are doing everything you can to be truthful, then you should be
   up front and transparent. No distorting of your voice or hiding.a**

   FBI sees Anonymous as security threat

   The Anonymous movement has become a potential national security threat,
   according to an article published in September by the Associated Press.

   The FBI has carried out more than 75 raids and arrested at least 16 people
   this year in connection with illegal Internet hacking jobs for which the
   group has claimed responsibility, according to the AP. One demonstration
   disrupted traffic in San Francisco as a protest after the Bay Area Rapid
   Transit system shut off cell service to deter a planned protest of a
   police shooting on a subway platform.

   The group also claimed responsibility for hacking the online payment
   processing center PayPal after it had suspended WikiLeaksa** account after
   WikiLeaks published sensitive U.S. government intelligence documents, the
   AP reported.

   Three of the Iowa campaign headquarters of presidential candidates are in
   Urbandale a** those of Michele Bachmann, a U.S. representative from
   Minnesota; former Godfathera**s Pizza CEO Herman Cain; and former
   Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

   Urbandale police are aware of the video, and while they arena**t releasing
   details of their security plans, authorities will be prepared should the
   demonstrations take an illegal turn, Urbandale officer Randy Peterson said
   Sunday.

   a**Wea**ll just try to address any issue as they arise,a** Peterson said.

   Occupy movement: We dona**t plan to interfere with voting

   Occupy Des Moines, an offshoot of an anti-Wall Street protest group, last
   week announced plans to launch nonviolent sit-ins inside campaign offices
   in the final week before the Iowa caucuses. Some of the groupa**s members
   have said they expect large-scale arrests, but they have emphasized they
   do not plan to commit violence or interfere with voting.

   a**There might be some overlapa** in what the groups believe, a**but
   Anonymous speaks for themselves and the Occupy Movement speaks for
   itself,a** said David Goodner, a demonstrator who often speaks on behalf
   of Occupy Des Moines. a**Whether the public can understand that or not,
   Ia**m not sure, but for me therea**s a clear difference.a**

   State officials were preparing for a variety of public safety scenarios
   associated with the Iowa caucuses before the video was released, said John
   Benson, a public information officer for Iowaa**s Homeland Security and
   Emergency Management Division

   a**Obviously with the video that theya**ve put out and some of the other
   work theya**re doing, that certainly increases your overall awareness,a**
   Benson said. a**But to say wea**re going to do something specific in our
   planning process, we cana**t say that right now, but it certainly has our
   attention.a**

   Party leaders: Let caucuses proceed

   Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Matt Strawn said the partya**s state
   central committee will discuss the situation at its next meeting.

   a**Successive generations of Iowans of both political parties have worked
   awfully hard to make sure Iowans have this opportunity to participate in
   this first-in-the-nation caucus,a** Strawn said. a**I certainly will do
   anything in my power to keep outside agitators from ruining something that
   a lot of people have worked very hard for over a long period of time.a**

   The integrity of the Iowa caucuses would be eroded should attempts to shut
   them down be successful, said Iowa Democratic Party Chairwoman Sue
   Dvorsky.

   a**If anyone is coming and planning to make it so the participants of the
   caucus cannot have a civil and civic conversation, then of course that
   would erode the integrity of the caucuses, and it flies in the face of
   what the caucuses are,a** Dvorsky said. a**Theya**re the most basic
   long-standing tradition in this country of neighbors coming together to
   talk about political issues.a**

   She continued: a**Ia**m hoping Iowans can protect their ability to speak
   freely and respectfully with their neighbors.a**

   About Anonymous

   Anonymous emerged in 2003 from an Internet chat channel where members
   organized web incidents for their own amusement.

   By 2008, the prankster nature of Anonymous morphed into a**hacktivism,a**
   where members sabotaged websites and leaked confidential information for
   political purposes, according to law enforcement authorities.

   The group has no formal leadership and is generally considered to be more
   of a movement than an organization. As the name implies, its members
   generally dona**t identify themselves.

   The group has generally concentrated on Internet hacking. This summer, it
   claimed credit for hacking into a Booz Allen Hamilton website and leaking
   email addresses of 90,000 U.S. military personnel and hacking a Monsanto
   Co. website and releasing personal data on 2,500 employees.

   Sources: USA Today and the Associated Press

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
   www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-10 14:15:47",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1586970_re-anonymous-and-occupy-divergence-in-the-iowa-caucuses-.html","peter.zeihan@stratfor.com","","ct@stratfor.com,sean.noonan@stratfor.com",""
1587026,"[alpha] Occupy Wall Street (DHS analysis)
","3","2011-10-25 18:04:51",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1587026_-alpha-occupy-wall-street-dhs-analysis-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com","attach/13/13637_DHS IP Special.pdf"
1587164,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged \"Anonymous\" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise \"anonymous\"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
","2011-11-10 19:47:39",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1587164_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1588898,"Fw: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran
","   I captured Ramzi Yousef on a single piece of intel and you will never see
   the killer that I had killed in Shadows show up in the OS. Relying on the
   OS as corroboration makes us no better then CNN. Also, Comrade J told me
   that the KGB takes great pride in killing Zia...
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari <bokhari@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 08:22:18 -0600 (CST)
   To: <alpha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
   Iran
   As an intelligence entity we can't simply accept a single piece of insight
   as truth.

   On 11/14/11 9:10 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Guerrilla actions behind enemy lines.  

     If we think the Izzies have set back waiting on Iran to create a bomb we
     are like the CIA with their inability to predict just about anything. 

     Check INSIGHT I posted last week that everyone discounted.  How come if
     its not in OS we nash our teeth?  Intelligence agencies exist to have
     sources.  That is what we are.  

     On 11/14/2011 8:06 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

       Penetrating a major military installation and causing a blast is a
       totally different ballgame. Not saying it can't happen. But we can't
       assume that because they did stuxnet that they are capable of doing
       this blast as well. It is a huge leap in capabilities.

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
       Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 08:03:34 -0600 (CST)
       To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
       ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
       Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast
       in Iran
       It clearly does not. Look at the thousand centrifuges. Please reread
       the 2 stuxnet analyses.

       There are enough iranians who have aliyah'd to israel that they could
       easily train a persian looking, farsi speaking jew to go into Iran for
       sabotage and not get caught. I don't know that this is happening nor
       do I assume that there would not be mistakes, but its very possible to
       do this undetected. The key is recruiting human agents on the bases.
       This was clearly done with stuxnet, though it may have been
       unknowingly

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
       Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:59:47 -0600 (CST)
       To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
       ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
       Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast
       in Iran
       Yeah this seems really unlikely. '79 was a whole different reality.
       The security establishment has the placed locked down.
       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Abe Selig <abe.selig@stratfor.com>
       Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:45:14 -0600 (CST)
       To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
       ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
       Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast
       in Iran
       There are still about 20,000 Jews in Iran (Tehran and Esfahan mostly),
       but IMO, they are far too scared of being accused as Israeli spies too
       actually help Israel out.

       On 11/14/11 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         Ah.  As stick said, they would more likely use proxies.  But if
         not,  special operations forces do often move undetected.  Don't
         think of them as going in on a helicopter, think of them as going in
         with a group of migrant workers crossing the border.  There used to
         be a lot of jews in Iran, not so much anymore, that's who I would
         recruit form. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
         To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
         Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 7:11:15 AM
         Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
         blast in Iran

         See insight below.
         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
         Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
         Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:10:06 -0600 (CST)
         To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
         ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
         Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
         blast in Iran
         what commandos?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
         To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
         Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 6:39:07 AM
         Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
         blast in Iran

         How did Israeli commandos get to operate deep inside Iran without
         being detected?
         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
         Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
         Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 05:54:41 -0600 (CST)
         To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
         ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
         Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
         blast in Iran
         I agree.  The argument here is that the proponents of conventional
         war are ones that want the oil prices--but is it really that
         simple?  What about other economic effects?  For Israel, by this
         argument, it doesn't matter what method as long as it sets Iran
         back----I agree with this.  However, the confidence that this guy
         has does not show publicly.  By that, I mean look at what Dagan was
         saying a year ago, and how quiet Israeli leaders have been. 
         Suddenly they are really pushing the issue, and while Dagan isn't
         it, his line is that conventional war would be a mistake, not that
         Iran doesn't need to be dealt with.  I don't really like trying to
         interpret public statements, but I think there is something here,
         and that's why I keep pushing this. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Chris Farnham\" <chris.farnham@stratfor.com>
         To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
         Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 7:22:52 PM
         Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
         blast in Iran

         I think the info that Fred sent in previously needs to be looked
         quite seriously here.

         The insight seems like quite a stretch however it has been put out
         there for some reason or another and is now playing in to what we
         are seeing.

         Insight below:

         Source below was asked to clarify his remarks that the nuclear
         infrastructure had been destroyed.  Source response:

         Israeli commandos in collaboration with Kurd forces destroyed few
         underground facilities mainly used for the Iranian defense and
         nuclear research projects.

         Despite the reports in the media and against any public knowledge,
         the promoter of a massive Israeli attack on Syria is the axis
         India-Russia-Turkey-Saudi Arabia. The axis US-Germany-France-China
         is against such an attack from obvious reasons. Not many people know
         that Russia is one of Israel's largest military partners and India
         is Israel's largest client.

         If a direct conflict between Iran and Israel erupts, Russia and
         Saudi Arabia will gain the advantages on oil increasing prices. On
         the other hand, China and Europe are expected to loose from an oil
         crisis as a result of a conflict. Based on Israeli plans, the attack
         on Iran will last only 48 hours but will be so destructive that Iran
         will be unable to retaliate or recover and the government will fall.
         It is hard to believe that Hamas or Hezbollah will try to get
         involved in this conflict.

         In the open media many are pushing and expecting Israel to launch a
         massive attack on Iran. Even if the Israelis have the capabilities
         and are ready to attack by air, sea and land, there is no need to
         attack the nuclear program at this point after the commandos
         destroyed a significant part of it.

         If a massive attack on Iran happens soon, then the attack will have
         political and oil reasons and not nuclear. It is also very hard to
         believe that the Israelis will initiate an attack unless they act as
         a contractor for other nations or if Iran or its proxies attack
         first. With the revealed of the new UN report the Israelis have
         green light to take care of the Iranian proxies in Gaza and Lebanon
         now with the entire world watching Iran. I think that we should
         expect escalations on these fronts rather than an Israeli attack on
         Iran.

         On 11/7/11 8:09 AM, Chris Farnham wrote: Ah, what? Israel has
         already destroyed the Iranian prog/infra and this is all being
         engineered by Europeans so people forget about the economy crisis?!

         How and when did the Israelis destroy the infra on the ground?

         Why is that we see the vast majority of the increase in pressure
         coming from Israel (I mean straight from people's mouths) and from
         the US (Such as Albright in the WaPo)?

         Would anyone actually accept that this could let the Europeans
         forget about the Euro crisis, something they have been experiencing
         every day for over a year?!

         Do we attribute any credibility to this item at all? I don't even
         see what possible disinfo purposes this could serve.

         On 11/7/11 7:54 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

           Code: IL701
           Publication: for background
           Attribution: none
           Source Description - Confirmed Israeli Intelligence Agent
           Source reliability: Still testing
           Item credibility: untested
           Source handler: Fred

           Source was asked what he thought of reports that the Israelis were
           preparing a military offensive against Iran.  Response:

           I think this is a diversion. The Israelis already destroyed all
           the Iranian nuclear infrastructure on the ground weeks ago. The
           current \"let's bomb Iran\" campaign was ordered by the EU leaders
           to divert the public attention from their at home financial
           problems. It plays also well for the US  since Pakistan, Russia
           and N. Korea are mentioned in the report. 

           The result of this campaign will be massive attacks on Gaza and
           strikes on Hezbollah in both Lebanon and Syria.

           --

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
         To: analysts@stratfor.com
         Sent: Monday, 14 November, 2011 11:52:04 AM
         Subject: Re: S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
         Iran

         wow, that's an extremely revealing statement.  The Israelis (i
         believe it was even Barak then too) made very similar comments
         following the Stuxnet news as well.  THe whole 'I'm not going to
         admit publicly that we did it, but boy that was nice.' 

         i think we need a piece laying out the details as far as we know of
         what happened and where and point out the holes in the accident
         theory. i think our assessment on the constraints of an Israeli
         attack on Iranian sites holds. It's the sabotage efforts where the
         most resources are being concentrated, which makes a lot of
         strategic and tactical sense for Israel and US in dealing with Iran
         at this stage

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Ben West\" <ben.west@stratfor.com>
         To: \"alerts\" <alerts@stratfor.com>
         Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 2:40:06 PM
         Subject: S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran

         Interesting comments by the defense minister.

         http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i28MvYyqR9sGxc2cZ4U1QlPPQFLA?docId=CNG.93c1b5af9b6cb71a17bf389563809eb2.a1
         Israel hails deadly blast in Iran

         (AFP) - 1 hour ago 

         JERUSALEM - Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak on Sunday hailed the
         deadly munitions blast at a base of Iran's elite Revolutionary
         Guards and hoped for more such incidents.

         \"I don't know the extent of the explosion,\" he told military radio,
         asked about the incident. \"But it would be desirable if they
         multiply.\"

         Iran said earlier that a senior general who pioneered an artillery
         and missile unit was among the 17 Guards reported killed in
         Saturday's blast at Bid Ganeh, near the town of Malard on the
         western outskirts of Tehran.

         Guards spokesman commander Ramezan Sharif said the blast, which Iran
         said was an accident, occurred as \"ammunition was taken out of the
         depot and was being moved outside toward the appropriate site.\"

         Set up after the 1979 Islamic revolution to defend Iran, the Guards
         are in charge of the Islamic republic's missile programme, including
         Shahab-3 missiles with a range of 2,000 kilometres (1,200 miles)
         capable of hitting Israel.

         Saturday's blast came amid international condemnation of Iran since
         the release of a new UN nuclear watchdog report accusing Tehran of
         working towards the development of nuclear warheads to fit inside
         its medium-range missiles.

         Israeli officials have in past weeks warned Iran of the possibility
         of military strikes against its nuclear sites.

         Ben West
         Tactical Analyst
         STRATFOR
         512-744-4300
         ext. 4340

         --

         Chris Farnham
         Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
         Australia Mobile: 0423372241
         Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

         --
         Sean Noonan
         Tactical Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
         www.STRATFOR.com

         --
         Sean Noonan
         Tactical Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
         www.STRATFOR.com

         --
         Sean Noonan
         Tactical Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: +1 512-279-9479 | M: +1 512-758-5967
         www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 -
 Abe Selig
 Officer, Operations Center
 STRATFOR
 T: 512.279.9489 | M: 512.574.3846
 www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-14 16:00:18",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1588898_fw-alpha-s3-g3-israel-iran-barak-hails-munitions-blast-in.html","burton@stratfor.com","","bokhari@stratfor.com,sean.noonan@stratfor.com",""
1591934,"Re: [CT] [OS] RUSSIA/SYRIA/CT-8/28- GRU officer dies	while	swimming.
 ??????
","   This was reportedly the deputy head though, not just a regular
   intelligence officer.=C2=A0 I imagine he would usually travel with at
   least a small crew.

   Fred Burton wrote:

 Cable notifications; I'm sure his out of country travel ha=
 d to be
 cleared, authorized.  Only the CIA/DCI is protected.



 Fred Burton wrote:
  

 Probably not

 Ryan Abbey wrote:
    

 Would this guy not have had a security detail with him=
  ... especially
 since he was vacationing out of country???

 ------------------------------------------------------------------------
 *From: *\"Ben West\" <ben.west@stratfor.com>
 *To: *ct@stratfor.com
 *Sent: *Monday, August 30, 2010 9:47:48 AM
 *Subject: *Re: [CT] [OS] RUSSIA/SYRIA/CT-8/28- GRU officer dies
 while        swimming. ??????

   Russian intelligence official dies in Syria during \"swimming tragedy\"
 and there are no details on it?! It's like they're admitting that he was
 murdered...

 On 8/30/2010 8:37 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
      

 Relationship to Comrade J?


 Sean Noonan wrote:
        

 Lauren, when you have a second, what's with this? =
  3 articles below.
 Dude died a couple weeks ago.

 Sean Noonan wrote:
          

 *Russian Intelligence Chief Dies While Swimming*

 Updated: Saturday, 28 Aug 2010, 4:00 PM EDT
 Published : Saturday, 28 Aug 2010, 4:00 PM EDT

            

 http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/dpps/news/russian-in=
 telligence-chief-dies-while-swimming-dpgonc-km-20100828_9383926
      

 (NewsCore) - The deputy head of Russia's powerfu=
 l military
 intelligence agency died mysteriously in a swimming accident, Russian
 media reported Saturday.

 \"Several days ago, General Yuri Ivanov died while swimming,\" official
 news agency RIA Novosti quoted a military source as saying.

 The report did not give any further details on the circumstances of
 the death, or the location.

 Ivanov was deputy head of the GRU, the overseas intelligence gathering
 arm of the Russian military.

 Daily Kommersant reported that the 52-year-old had died \"tragically,\"
 wording that was repeated in an obituary in defense ministry newspaper
 Red Star, which also failed to provide any details.

 During the Soviet era the GRU was considered a rival to the KGB, the
 secret service, now known as the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR).

 Copyright 2010 AFP. All rights reserved.

 *Russian diplomat's body found on Hatay shore*
 Font Size: Larger|Smaller
 Friday, August 13, 2010
 Hatay - Anatolia News Agency

            

 http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=3Drussian-diplomats-=
 body-found-in-hatay-shores-2010-08-13
      

 A body found by fishermen on the coast of =C3=87=
 evlik in the border
 province of Hatay five days ago has been identified as Russian
 diplomat Yuri Ivanov, Anatolia News Agency reported Friday.

 The diplomat drowned while on vacation in Latakia in Syria, but his
 body could not be found despite widespread search operations.
 Authorities said the wind and waves must have dragged the body toward
 the Samanda=C4=9F district=E2=80=99s coast.

 Officials said they had been able to identify the body by
 corresponding with both domestic and international authorities and
 were helped by Ivanov=E2=80=99s cross necklace.

 The body was sent for an autopsy to the Forensic Medicine Institute in
 the neighboring province of Adana before being released to the
 diplomat=E2=80=99s relatives in Samanda=C4=9F.
 *
 Body of Russian diplomat found on Turkish coast*
 August 17, 2010 | 15:25
 http://news.am/eng/news/28007.html

 Fishermen found the body of the Russian diplomat on the Mediterranean
 coast of Turkey. Most likely the Russian diplomat drowned while on
 vacation in Syria.

 He arrived in Syria as a tourist and entered the country with
 diplomatic passport. He is not the officer of Russian Embassy in
 Syria, spokesman for the Embassy Andrey Zaytsev told RIA Novosti.

 Earlier media spread information on death of Russian diplomat Yuri
 Ivanov whose body was found by fishermen on the coast of Cevlik in the
 border province of Hatay five days ago.

 Officials said they managed to identify the body with the assistance
 of both domestic and international authorities, Hurriyet Daily News
 reported.

 --

 Sean Noonan

 Tactical Analyst

 Office: +1 512-279-9479

 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.=
 stratfor.com

            

 --

 Sean Noonan

 Tactical Analyst

 Office: +1 512-279-9479

 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.=
 stratfor.com

          

 --=20
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX



 --=20
 Ryan Abbey
 Tactical Intern
 Stratfor
 ryan.abbey@stratfor.com

      

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2010-08-30 16:07:57",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1591934_re-ct-os-russia-syria-ct-8-28-gru-officer-dies-while.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","ct@stratfor.com,eurasia@stratfor.com",""
1593553,"Re: [Fwd: RE: Mossad agent arrested over Dubai murder]
","I have VERY good information this was a contract job.  The mission was
contracted by the MOSSAD.  In essence, subbed out under contract.  The
last few hits have been subbed out.  I also have VERY good information
that the Iranian physicist hit was also a subbed out job.  More in
person at the T meeting Tuesday, can't put anything in writing.

Sean Noonan wrote:
> Ah, that makes more sense. That daily mail story was pretty sensationalized.
> 
> Looks like Melman is doing his job.  I enjoyed his article on the matter:
> 
> http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/germany-may-have-intentionally-leaked-alleged-mossad-man-s-arrest-1.295977
> 
> Fred Burton wrote:
>> No, I made no statement.  Forwarded Yossi the link to the story and that
>> was his response.
>>
>> Sean Noonan wrote:
>>   
>>> Was your statement that the arrest was over the Dubai murder? Brodsky is
>>> wanted for the passport issue.  The Sherrif of Dubai, Lt. Gen. Dhahi
>>> Khalfan Tamim (remember him?), has said they have no interest in the
>>> suspect unless directly linked to the murders themselves. 
>>>
>>> Fred Burton wrote:
>>>     
>>>> -------- Original Message --------
>>>> Subject: 	RE: Mossad agent arrested over Dubai murder
>>>> Date: 	Mon, 14 Jun 2010 08:44:02 +0300
>>>> From: 	Yossi Melman <Ymelman@haaretz.co.il>
>>>> To: 	Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Not true he was arrested by a request of germany and not dubai over the
>>>> obtaining a german passport deceptively which Was used in the murder/
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>   
>>>>       
>>> -- 
>>> Sean Noonan
>>> Tactical Analyst
>>> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
>>> Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>>> www.stratfor.com
>>>
>>>     
> 
> -- 
> Sean Noonan
> Tactical Analyst
> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
> Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
> www.stratfor.com
> 
","2010-06-14 16:41:36",1,"2012-02-27 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1593553_re-fwd-re-mossad-agent-arrested-over-dubai-murder-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","sean.noonan@stratfor.com,tactical@stratfor.com",""
1594481,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-11 13:59:34",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1594481_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1600801,"Author of Comrade J on Tretyakov's death
","   http://www.peteearley.com/blog/2010/07/09/sergei-tretyakov-comrade-j-has-died/

   Sergei Tretyakov, Comrade J, has died.
   Published by Pete on July 9, 2010 in Books and Personal.
   I am sorry to announce that my good friend, Sergei Tretyakov, the subject
   of my book, Comrade J: The Untold Secrets of Russia's Master Spy in
   America After the End of the Cold War, died unexpectedly on June 13th in
   his home with his wife, Helen.
   Sergei was 53.
   Helen asked those of us who were his friends to not immediately reveal his
   death until an autopsy could be performed under the supervision of the
   FBI. She was concerned that Sergei's former colleagues in Russia's SVR,
   which replaced the KGB as Russia's foreign intelligence service, might
   attempt to use his unexpected death for propaganda purposes.
   That autopsy has now been completed and it showed no evidence of foul
   play, according to an FBI official who spoke to me off-the-record. Helen
   said her husband died from massive cardiac arrest.
   In keeping with Russian Orthodox religious traditions, a private funeral
   was held on the third day after his death. On the ninth day, more than 200
   people attended a private celebration of his life. The guests included
   close friends, neighbors and persons who had worked with him in the United
   States.
   Sergei was called \"the most important spy for the U.S. since the collapse
   of the Soviet Union\" by an FBI official in my book. Unfortunately, because
   much of what he said is still being used by U. S. counter-intelligence
   officers, it will be years before the true extent of his contribution can
   be made public - if ever.
   Sergei Olegovich Tretyakov was born Oct. 5, 1956 in Moscow and rose
   quickly through the ranks to become the second-in-command of the KGB in
   New York City between 1995 to 2000. As such, he oversaw all Russian spy
   operations against the US and its allies in New York City and within the
   United Nations.
   When he defected on Oct. 11, 2000, with Helen and their daughter, Ksenia,
   the U.S. government took the family into hiding and during the next five
   years, they lived largely \"off the grid.\" It wasn't until Comrade J was
   published and Sergei went on a book tour that his work both as a
   high-ranking KGB/SVR officer and U.S. operative was made public. It is
   thought that he spent at least three years working as a U.S. agent while
   he was still an SVR colonel in New York.
   Sergei, Helen and their daughter became U.S. citizens after they defected
   and although some federal officials feared for their safety, Sergei lived
   openly under his own name without protection - although when he traveled
   overseas, he always had an FBI escort. Sergei was convinced that his U.S.
   citizenship protected him from the SVR, even though he continued to
   publicly criticize his former colleagues, especially President Vladimir
   Putin.
   The recent arrests of eleven Russian \"illegals\" on June 28th by the FBI
   thrust Sergei's name into the news once again. The fact that he was in
   charge of all covert operations in New York City when several of the
   illegals entered the country suggested that he was aware of their
   operations and quickly led to speculation that he had tipped-off the FBI
   about the ring.
   However, on Thursday, a  informed source told me that Sergei was not
   involved in the case. Sergei told U.S. officials when he was debriefed
   about Russian \"illegal\" operations, but he did not know the individuals
   who later were arrested, my source said.
   I became close friends with Sergei and Helen while working on my book
   about their life and his career. They insisted that I stay with them in
   their home and during our weeks together, I witnessed first-hand how much
   he and Helen loved each other, their devotion to their daughter, and love
   for their new homeland. I also was delighted to discover that Helen was a
   gourmet cook!
   Sergei dispelled many of the Hollywood stereotypes of a Russian agent. He
   was well-educated, fluent in three languages, quick-witted, personable and
   able to laugh at his own mistakes when he didn't understand an American
   tradition or slang.
   He proved to be a tireless worker when I interviewed him. He would speak
   for ten hours straight, often pacing back-and-forth, in the family room of
   his house as we discussed his career. He had a fabulous memory that he had
   sharpened as a KGB/SVR officer and he refused to speculate or exaggerate
   when he discussed KGB/SVR operations.  He knew his enemies in Russia would
   use the slightest mistake to attack his credibility so he was scrupulous
   in what he said and the charges that he made.
   Having written bestselling books about two American traitors, including
   John Walker Jr., and his Family of Spies,and Aldrich Ames, the CIA
   turncoat, I was struck at how different Sergei was from U.S. traitors.
   Walker and Ames were motivated by greed and money. Sergei did not need
   money. Upon his return to Russia from New York, he was due to be promoted
   to the rank of general, which would have guaranteed him a cushy
   retirement. He had assets in Moscow worth more than two million U.S.
   dollars - money that was stripped from him after he defected.
   It was clear to me early on that he did not swtich sides for financial
   gain, but rather because he had lost faith in Russian leaders and he
   wanted a better life for his young daughter. He liked to say that he did
   not betray his homeland. Rather he and other ordinary citizens in Russia
   had been betrayed by Presidents Boris Yeltsin and Putin after the Soviet
   Union collapsed.
   Neither Walker or Ames ever wanted to become Russian citizens, but Sergei
   and his family relished their U.S. citizenship. Sergei often told me that
   Americans were naive because they took freedoms for granted and did not
   understand how unique our lives here are compared to life in an oppressive
   nation, such as Russia whose leaders often silence their critics,
   especially those in the media, with a bullet.
   One reason why I believe Sergei did not know about the 11 Russians who
   were arrested as illegals is because he did not hold back during our
   interviews in identifying persons whom he claimed were Russian spies.
   Among the individuals identified in my book were a former member of the
   Canadian Parliament, a top-ranking verification expert at the
   International Atomic Energy Agency, and a former U.N. official who Sergei
   helped place in the Oil For Food Program. That UN official diverted a half
   billion US dollars of UN humanitarian relief to Moscow under both the
   Yeltsin and Putin administrations and was rewarded by Putin for the
   thefts. Sergei was disgusted by that thievery and said so.
   In our interviews, he talked repeatedly about how Yeltsin had failed the
   Russian people by becoming a drunken stumble-bum who allowed Oligarchs to
   engorge themselves by stealing government property. He had similar harsh
   criticisms for Putin, whom Sergei described as an insignificant KGB
   officer who later as president surrounded himself with thugs. Their
   primary goal has been to enrich themselves, he charged.
   Sergei asked me to write his story at the suggestion of a director in the
   British intelligence service. They were having dinner when my name was
   mentioned because the director had read my book about Aldrich Ames and had
   admired it. Sergei waived his rights to any advance money from the
   publisher and received less than $10,000 from the book's sales even though
   it was a New York Times bestseller. Money was not his motive in telling
   his story.
   Instead, he hoped to sound a wake-up call about Russia. He was fond of
   saying that the Cold War never ended. Before the collapse of the Soviet
   Union, the KGB had a list of three main adversaries: (1.) The United
   States  (2.) NATO and (3.) China. After the KGB was disbanded and the SVR
   was formed, Sergei said a new edict came down announcing that the SVR had
   three main targets: (1.) The United States (2.) NATO and (3.) China.
   \"What changed?\" he asked, laughing.
   Those of us who were his friends will miss his sense of humor, his
   knowledge about Russia and KGB/SVR spy-craft,  and his almost child-like
   love for his new country.
   I was honored to write his life story and to call him my friend.
   I will miss not hearing his voice when I call.

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-07-09 17:11:42",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1600801_author-of-comrade-j-on-tretyakov-s-death-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com,os@stratfor.com,tactical@stratfor.com",""
1614316,"Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran
","   The problem with Iran is that these guys have spun us in the past. 
   From: Chris Farnham <chris.farnham@stratfor.com>
   Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 08:58:19 -0600 (CST)
   To: sean noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>, Scott Stewart
   <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
   Iran
   If a source has a strong record for accuracy and the info being sent adds
   up I don't see why we need to wait for it to be corroborated.

   We also don't have the coverage in many regions that would allow us not to
   move on anything unless it was corroborated.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Chris Farnham\" <chris.farnham@stratfor.com>, \"Fred Burton\"
   <burton@stratfor.com>, \"Scott Stewart\" <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, 15 November, 2011 1:48:27 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
   Iran

   The problem is that analysts are allowed to write on a topic heavily
   relying on their own sources.

   This shouldn't happen unless the source is well corroborated. Or maybe
   shouldn't happen at all. This is something we can fix easily as the
   company gets bigger.

   And Fred, we're keeping that insight in mind. I don't take it as gospel,
   but we are well aware that parts of it are being confirmed.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Chris Farnham <chris.farnham@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 08:43:17 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
   Iran
   Disagree. As WO I see a lot of insight that we give great credit to that
   is never corroborated by OS or is at least not until much later in the
   game.

   In regards to this specific piece of insight I would strongly suggest that
   it is the kind of insight that you take notice of but until you get some
   kind of corroborating info (be it from more insight or OS) it is best to
   view critically.

   I mean if we saw this published by Alex Jones or on Debka we'd laugh at
   it.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: alpha@stratfor.com
   Sent: Tuesday, 15 November, 2011 1:30:29 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
   Iran

   Yes but an intelligence agency that secures a single piece of insight that
   is then corroborated by the infamous OS leads one to believe that either
   the same source is responsible for both or perhaps there is smoke that
   indicates a fire?    We tend to not believe things unless there is OS. 
   The best intel never see's the light of day.  I'm more circumspect when it
   is in the OS...unless of course, we planted it.  

   p.s. I'm offended that we may believe an Iranian before a Jew. 

   cc:  APAC, JINSA. 

   On 11/14/2011 8:21 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     As an intelligence entity we can't simply accept a single piece of
     insight as truth.

     On 11/14/11 9:10 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

       Guerrilla actions behind enemy lines.  

       If we think the Izzies have set back waiting on Iran to create a bomb
       we are like the CIA with their inability to predict just about
       anything. 

       Check INSIGHT I posted last week that everyone discounted.  How come
       if its not in OS we nash our teeth?  Intelligence agencies exist to
       have sources.  That is what we are.  

       On 11/14/2011 8:06 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

         Penetrating a major military installation and causing a blast is a
         totally different ballgame. Not saying it can't happen. But we can't
         assume that because they did stuxnet that they are capable of doing
         this blast as well. It is a huge leap in capabilities.

         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
         Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
         Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 08:03:34 -0600 (CST)
         To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
         ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
         Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
         blast in Iran
         It clearly does not. Look at the thousand centrifuges. Please reread
         the 2 stuxnet analyses.

         There are enough iranians who have aliyah'd to israel that they
         could easily train a persian looking, farsi speaking jew to go into
         Iran for sabotage and not get caught. I don't know that this is
         happening nor do I assume that there would not be mistakes, but its
         very possible to do this undetected. The key is recruiting human
         agents on the bases. This was clearly done with stuxnet, though it
         may have been unknowingly

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
         Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
         Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:59:47 -0600 (CST)
         To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
         ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
         Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
         blast in Iran
         Yeah this seems really unlikely. '79 was a whole different reality.
         The security establishment has the placed locked down.
         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Abe Selig <abe.selig@stratfor.com>
         Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
         Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:45:14 -0600 (CST)
         To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
         ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
         Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
         blast in Iran
         There are still about 20,000 Jews in Iran (Tehran and Esfahan
         mostly), but IMO, they are far too scared of being accused as
         Israeli spies too actually help Israel out.

         On 11/14/11 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           Ah.  As stick said, they would more likely use proxies.  But if
           not,  special operations forces do often move undetected.  Don't
           think of them as going in on a helicopter, think of them as going
           in with a group of migrant workers crossing the border.  There
           used to be a lot of jews in Iran, not so much anymore, that's who
           I would recruit form. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
           To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
           Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 7:11:15 AM
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran

           See insight below.
           Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
           Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
           Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 07:10:06 -0600 (CST)
           To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
           ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran
           what commandos?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
           To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
           Sent: Monday, November 14, 2011 6:39:07 AM
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran

           How did Israeli commandos get to operate deep inside Iran without
           being detected?
           Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
           Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
           Date: Mon, 14 Nov 2011 05:54:41 -0600 (CST)
           To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
           ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran
           I agree.  The argument here is that the proponents of conventional
           war are ones that want the oil prices--but is it really that
           simple?  What about other economic effects?  For Israel, by this
           argument, it doesn't matter what method as long as it sets Iran
           back----I agree with this.  However, the confidence that this guy
           has does not show publicly.  By that, I mean look at what Dagan
           was saying a year ago, and how quiet Israeli leaders have been. 
           Suddenly they are really pushing the issue, and while Dagan isn't
           it, his line is that conventional war would be a mistake, not that
           Iran doesn't need to be dealt with.  I don't really like trying to
           interpret public statements, but I think there is something here,
           and that's why I keep pushing this. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: \"Chris Farnham\" <chris.farnham@stratfor.com>
           To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
           Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 7:22:52 PM
           Subject: Re: [alpha] S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions
           blast in Iran

           I think the info that Fred sent in previously needs to be looked
           quite seriously here.

           The insight seems like quite a stretch however it has been put out
           there for some reason or another and is now playing in to what we
           are seeing.

           Insight below:

           Source below was asked to clarify his remarks that the nuclear
           infrastructure had been destroyed.  Source response:

           Israeli commandos in collaboration with Kurd forces destroyed few
           underground facilities mainly used for the Iranian defense and
           nuclear research projects.

           Despite the reports in the media and against any public knowledge,
           the promoter of a massive Israeli attack on Syria is the axis
           India-Russia-Turkey-Saudi Arabia. The axis US-Germany-France-China
           is against such an attack from obvious reasons. Not many people
           know that Russia is one of Israel's largest military partners and
           India is Israel's largest client.

           If a direct conflict between Iran and Israel erupts, Russia and
           Saudi Arabia will gain the advantages on oil increasing prices. On
           the other hand, China and Europe are expected to loose from an oil
           crisis as a result of a conflict. Based on Israeli plans, the
           attack on Iran will last only 48 hours but will be so destructive
           that Iran will be unable to retaliate or recover and the
           government will fall. It is hard to believe that Hamas or
           Hezbollah will try to get involved in this conflict.

           In the open media many are pushing and expecting Israel to launch
           a massive attack on Iran. Even if the Israelis have the
           capabilities and are ready to attack by air, sea and land, there
           is no need to attack the nuclear program at this point after the
           commandos destroyed a significant part of it.

           If a massive attack on Iran happens soon, then the attack will
           have political and oil reasons and not nuclear. It is also very
           hard to believe that the Israelis will initiate an attack unless
           they act as a contractor for other nations or if Iran or its
           proxies attack first. With the revealed of the new UN report the
           Israelis have green light to take care of the Iranian proxies in
           Gaza and Lebanon now with the entire world watching Iran. I think
           that we should expect escalations on these fronts rather than an
           Israeli attack on Iran.

           On 11/7/11 8:09 AM, Chris Farnham wrote: Ah, what? Israel has
           already destroyed the Iranian prog/infra and this is all being
           engineered by Europeans so people forget about the economy
           crisis?!

           How and when did the Israelis destroy the infra on the ground?

           Why is that we see the vast majority of the increase in pressure
           coming from Israel (I mean straight from people's mouths) and from
           the US (Such as Albright in the WaPo)?

           Would anyone actually accept that this could let the Europeans
           forget about the Euro crisis, something they have been
           experiencing every day for over a year?!

           Do we attribute any credibility to this item at all? I don't even
           see what possible disinfo purposes this could serve.

           On 11/7/11 7:54 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

             Code: IL701
             Publication: for background
             Attribution: none
             Source Description - Confirmed Israeli Intelligence Agent
             Source reliability: Still testing
             Item credibility: untested
             Source handler: Fred

             Source was asked what he thought of reports that the Israelis
             were preparing a military offensive against Iran.  Response:

             I think this is a diversion. The Israelis already destroyed all
             the Iranian nuclear infrastructure on the ground weeks ago. The
             current \"let's bomb Iran\" campaign was ordered by the EU leaders
             to divert the public attention from their at home financial
             problems. It plays also well for the US  since Pakistan, Russia
             and N. Korea are mentioned in the report. 

             The result of this campaign will be massive attacks on Gaza and
             strikes on Hezbollah in both Lebanon and Syria.

             --

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
           To: analysts@stratfor.com
           Sent: Monday, 14 November, 2011 11:52:04 AM
           Subject: Re: S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in
           Iran

           wow, that's an extremely revealing statement.  The Israelis (i
           believe it was even Barak then too) made very similar comments
           following the Stuxnet news as well.  THe whole 'I'm not going to
           admit publicly that we did it, but boy that was nice.' 

           i think we need a piece laying out the details as far as we know
           of what happened and where and point out the holes in the accident
           theory. i think our assessment on the constraints of an Israeli
           attack on Iranian sites holds. It's the sabotage efforts where the
           most resources are being concentrated, which makes a lot of
           strategic and tactical sense for Israel and US in dealing with
           Iran at this stage

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: \"Ben West\" <ben.west@stratfor.com>
           To: \"alerts\" <alerts@stratfor.com>
           Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2011 2:40:06 PM
           Subject: S3/G3* ISRAEL/IRAN - Barak hails munitions blast in Iran

           Interesting comments by the defense minister.

           http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i28MvYyqR9sGxc2cZ4U1QlPPQFLA?docId=CNG.93c1b5af9b6cb71a17bf389563809eb2.a1
           Israel hails deadly blast in Iran

           (AFP) - 1 hour ago 

           JERUSALEM - Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak on Sunday hailed
           the deadly munitions blast at a base of Iran's elite Revolutionary
           Guards and hoped for more such incidents.

           \"I don't know the extent of the explosion,\" he told military
           radio, asked about the incident. \"But it would be desirable if
           they multiply.\"

           Iran said earlier that a senior general who pioneered an artillery
           and missile unit was among the 17 Guards reported killed in
           Saturday's blast at Bid Ganeh, near the town of Malard on the
           western outskirts of Tehran.

           Guards spokesman commander Ramezan Sharif said the blast, which
           Iran said was an accident, occurred as \"ammunition was taken out
           of the depot and was being moved outside toward the appropriate
           site.\"

           Set up after the 1979 Islamic revolution to defend Iran, the
           Guards are in charge of the Islamic republic's missile programme,
           including Shahab-3 missiles with a range of 2,000 kilometres
           (1,200 miles) capable of hitting Israel.

           Saturday's blast came amid international condemnation of Iran
           since the release of a new UN nuclear watchdog report accusing
           Tehran of working towards the development of nuclear warheads to
           fit inside its medium-range missiles.

           Israeli officials have in past weeks warned Iran of the
           possibility of military strikes against its nuclear sites.

           Ben West
           Tactical Analyst
           STRATFOR
           512-744-4300
           ext. 4340

           --

           Chris Farnham
           Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
           Australia Mobile: 0423372241
           Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
           www.stratfor.com

           --
           Sean Noonan
           Tactical Analyst
           STRATFOR
           T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
           www.STRATFOR.com

           --
           Sean Noonan
           Tactical Analyst
           STRATFOR
           T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
           www.STRATFOR.com

           --
           Sean Noonan
           Tactical Analyst
           STRATFOR
           T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
           www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 -
 Abe Selig
 Officer, Operations Center
 STRATFOR
 T: 512.279.9489 A| M: 512.574.3846
 www.STRATFOR.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-14 15:07:15",1,"2012-03-01 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1614316_re-alpha-s3-g3-israel-iran-barak-hails-munitions-blast-in.html","stewart@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,chris.farnham@stratfor.com,sean.noonan@stratfor.com",""
1618981,"[TACTICAL] ChiCom Menace
","On at least two occasions, hackers took over U.S. satellites and
targeted their command-and-control systems, a report by the U.S.-China
Economic and Security Review Commission revealed November 16. The
incidents involved two Earth observation satellites. While it may be
difficult to trace who hacked the satellites, U.S. officials
acknowledged the incidents had to come from a nation power. U.S.
officials cannot clearly trace the incidents to China, but the report
released by the Congressionally mandated commission noted Chinese
military writings made reference to attacks on ground-based space
communications facilities.
","2011-11-23 17:48:29",1,"2012-03-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1618981_-tactical-chicom-menace-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:tactical@stratfor.com","rbaker@stratfor.com,tactical@stratfor.com",""
1624947,"Re: Anonymous
","   Well, my concern would be then stealing our credit card data from
   customers somehow. If that happens, it would bury us. Not a lot of people
   look at our website in hits.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 14:03:02 -0500 (CDT)
   To: scott stewart<stewart@stratfor.com>
   Cc: <burton@stratfor.com>; Colby Martin<colby.martin@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: Anonymous
   I'm not sure anonymous would ever give a shit about us.  But if they did,
   they would be factors of ten more likely to carry out a DDOS attack on our
   website than the chinese or russians. 

   On 10/24/11 2:01 PM, scott stewart wrote:

 We will certainly think it through, but we shouldn't be any more scared of
 these guys when we are the Chicoms or Russians.




 On 10/24/11 2:56 PM, \"burton@stratfor.com\" <burton@stratfor.com> wrote:


 We may want to think thru what we are doing so we don't get attacked.

 ------Original Message------
 From: Frank Ginac
 To: Fred Burton {6}
 Cc: Scott Stewart
 Subject: Re: Anonymous
 Sent: Oct 24, 2011 1:53 PM

 We have not deployed the new countermeasures at the co-lo. In short,
 we're no better prepared today than a month ago.

 ----- Original Message -----
 From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
 To: \"Frank Ginac\" <frank.ginac@stratfor.com>
 Cc: \"Scott Stewart\" <Scott.Stewart@stratfor.com>
 Sent: Monday, October 24, 2011 11:35:24 AM
 Subject: Anonymous

 Frank, Folks are putting together a piece of analysis on the Anonymous
 group from what I understand as it pertains to Mexico.  Are we able to
 defend ourselves from the IT space if we publish something they don't
 like?  Thanks, Fred


 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T



   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2011-10-24 21:16:31",1,"2012-03-06 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1624947_re-anonymous-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,stewart@stratfor.com,sean.noonan@stratfor.com,colby.martin@stratfor.com",""
1627842,"Re: [OS] UK/US/AUSTRALIA/CT- WikiLeaks back online, Assange close
 to arrest
","   yes, most likely would not stop these.  but it could disrupt whatever
   might be next. 

   Also all this trouble with internet hosting could serve to slow down this
   set of leaks.  And maybe a combination of wikileaks arrest and server
   shutdowns could stop it. 
   On 12/3/10 9:20 AM, Ben West wrote:

     If Assange is running the show and his staff isn't as confident as he
     is, then arresting him now could very well stop the flow of cables. But
     all it takes is one person to keep it going - or just dump them all at
     once if it gets too dicey, and these files have been very widely
     distributed so far. I can't imagine anyone reclaiming all the documents
     now.

     On 12/3/2010 8:54 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

       yeah also remember there was an article by nytimes i think that alot
       of people on his staff were uncomfortable with the way things were
       playing out, so without him there they may loose nerve or come to
       their better senses

       On 12/3/10 8:48 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         Yes, like Fred's source pointed out--arrest and trial would just be
         a political circus.  It would probably not disrupt wikileaks.  BUT,
         occasonally a leader makes an organization, and maybe no one as
         capable will be willing to fill his shoes.  Or at least, won't be
         able to get as much pubilicity for wikileaks.  As you also said, it
         could tarnish both Assange's and Wikileaks' repution.  That coul
         dserve to discredit and undermine the group.  Maybe people would be
         less inclined to leak to it, or the public would be less inclined to
         pay attention--or more importantly support wikileaks financially. 
         Though I admit the chance of this causing the public to pay less
         attention is minimal, and in fact would probably increase attention
         on the guy. 

         (though personally, getting a rapist off the street is getting a
         rapist off the street.  Also, his mom owns a puppet theater...)

         On 12/3/10 8:38 AM, Ben West wrote:

           What would the overall significance of his arrest be? It's likely
           that the files are backed up elsewhere and that someone else could
           give the go-ahead for releasing them (that could very well already
           be the case) and if his back-ups are anything like Assange, they
           would welcome the publicity that would come to them by filling his
           shoes.

           If the British got custody of him, they could conduct searches or
           evidence that would support rape charges and, if they happened to
           find material regarding the leaks, that could lead to new charges.
           But this has been coming for a while, and if Assange was smart, he
           would have turned over any really sensitive stuff by now, which
           would decrease the likelihood of police finding anything juicy.

           Seems to me that all this really does is tarnish his reputation
           and make him look like scum. It provides some public distraction
           from all the leaked documents, but doesn't undermine their impact
           - just undermines the character of the person who facilitated the
           leaks.

           any other thoughts?

           On 12/3/2010 7:40 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             I may have sent this out before- Assange walking out of a CNN
             interview.

             http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lisa9XTRLb4

             just shows how far his head is up his ass. 
             On 12/3/10 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               looks like Assange is in the UK and they might actually roll
               on him.

               On 12/3/10 7:31 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                 *OG source
                 Net closes on Assange: arrest by British police expected in
                 days
                 By Mark Hughes and Jerome Taylor
                 Friday, 3 December 2010
                 http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/net-closes-on-assange-arrest-by-british-police-expected-in-days-2149805.html

                 Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, is expected to be
                 arrested in the coming days after Swedish prosecutors filed
                 a new warrant with British authorities.

                 The Independent revealed yesterday that a procedural error
                 with the European Arrest Warrant had delayed the arrest of
                 the 39-year-old Australian, who is wanted in Sweden over
                 sexual allegations but has been in England since October.

                 Police in Gothenburg claim they have now submitted a fresh
                 warrant to the Serious Organised Crime Agency. Soca is
                 expected to instruct Scotland Yard to arrest Mr Assange and
                 have him appear before an extradition hearing - although as
                 of last night the Metropolitan Police had yet to receive the
                 warrant.

                 Police sources have previously said that they received a
                 letter from Mr Assange's UK-based lawyer, Mark Stephens,
                 containing information about how to contact Mr Assange
                 should they need to.

                 Details of the new arrest warrant came as a last-ditch
                 attempt to have the allegations against Mr Assange dropped
                 failed. Sweden's highest court upheld the arrest order and
                 refused to let him appeal against a lower court's ruling.

                 Last night, Mr Assange's family spoke of their fears for his
                 safety after increasingly shrill statements from American
                 commentators who have called for his assassination. His
                 mother, Christine Assange, said \"the forces that he's
                 challenging are too big\".

                 The arrest warrant filed with Soca states that he was wanted
                 on suspicion of rape, sexual molestation and unlawful
                 coercion. But Soca requested a new warrant. A spokeswoman
                 for the Swedish National Police Board told the BBC that the
                 original one had been refused because it listed only the
                 maximum penalty for the most serious crime alleged, rather
                 than for all of the crimes.

                 When the arrest is made, Mr Assange will be taken before an
                 extradition hearing at Westminster magistrates' court. If he
                 refuses to be extradited, a judge will preside over an
                 extradition hearing and will rule whether he should be sent
                 to Sweden or discharged.

                 Last night, Mr Stephens said he would challenge any arrest
                 in British courts. \"The process in this case has been so
                 utterly irregular that the chances of a valid arrest warrant
                 being submitted to me are very small,\" he said. Mr Stephens
                 has accused Swedish prosecutors of launching a witch-hunt
                 against his client, who strongly denies the rape allegations
                 and says he is being smeared because of the exposes
                 published by his website.

                 He has maintained that Swedish prosecutors have yet to
                 provide any evidence against Mr Assange and have ignored his
                 requests to meet with them. He also expressed concerns at
                 the way the UK and Swedish authorities were handling the
                 case.

                 \"I feel like I am sitting in the middle of a surreal Swedish
                 fairytale,\" he said. \"The trolls keep threatening to come on
                 and keep making noises off stage. But at the moment, no
                 appearance from them.\"

                 In an interview with an Australian newspaper, Mr Assange's
                 mother defended her son and lambasted hawks in the US who
                 have called for his death.

                 Ms Assange, who runs a puppet theatre in Noosa, a Queensland
                 beach resort, defended her son's decision to publish
                 thousands of classified US documents on the website. \"He
                 sees what he's doing as doing a good thing in the world -
                 fighting baddies, if you like,\" she told Queensland's
                 Courier-Mail.

                 Ms Assange - who does not even own a computer - described
                 her son as a hero of the internet. But she added that she
                 feared he had \"gotten too smart for himself\", saying: \"I'm
                 concerned it's gotten too big and the forces that he's
                 challenging are too big.\" She did not want him \"hunted down
                 and jailed\".

                 On 12/3/10 7:24 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                   WikiLeaks back online, Assange close to arrest

                   Updated 2 hours 45 minutes ago
                   http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/03/3084384.htm

                   The WikiLeaks website is back online with a new Swiss
                   address after its previous domain name was killed.

                   The whistleblower website's original domain host,
                   EveryDNS.net, says it terminated its services because
                   Wikileaks had been coming under \"massive\" cyber attacks.

                   The new address - wikileaks.ch - was put online six hours
                   after the original site wikileaks.org was killed.

                   An internet trace of the new domain name suggests that the
                   site itself is still hosted in Sweden and in France.

                   Web users accessing the wikileaks.ch address are directed
                   to a page under the URL http://213.251.145.96/ which gives
                   them access to the former site, including a massive trove
                   of leaked US diplomatic traffic.

                   The WikiLeaks website released more than 250,000 secret US
                   diplomatic cables this week, which has left governments
                   around the world scrambling to deal with the fallout.

                   Meanwhile, British media reports Scotland Yard could
                   arrest the site's founder Julian Assange within days.

                   Prosecutors in Sweden want to question Mr Assange over
                   alleged sex crimes involving two women during a visit to
                   Stockholm in August.

                   Mr Assange, who was born in Australia, has not been
                   charged and he denies the allegations.

                   He reportedly avoided arrest this week because Swedish
                   authorities had filled out an Interpol red notice
                   incorrectly.

                   Britain's Independent newspaper reports that police know
                   Mr Assange's whereabouts in England and are expected to
                   arrest him in the coming days.

                   Mr Assange's Stockholm-based lawyer Bjoern Hurtig says he
                   will fight his client's extradition to Sweden in the event
                   of his arrest.

                   \"Together with my British colleague Mark Stephens and
                   international experts, we will fight the extradition
                   warrants,\" he said.

                   A WikiLeaks spokesman says Mr Assange has to remain out of
                   the public eye because he is facing assassination threats
                   following the whistleblowing website's publication of the
                   secret cables.

                   Several US senators have also called for him to be charged
                   with espionage.

                   Senator Dianne Feinstein says the leak is a serious breach
                   of national security and action must be taken.

                   \"We have reviewed the espionage statutes and we believe it
                   qualifies,\" she said.

                   \"That this, allowed to be carried out, incapacitates this
                   nation to carry out business.\"
                   --

                   Sean Noonan

                   Tactical Analyst

                   Office: +1 512-279-9479

                   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                   www.stratfor.com

                 --

                 Sean Noonan

                 Tactical Analyst

                 Office: +1 512-279-9479

                 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                 www.stratfor.com

               --

               Sean Noonan

               Tactical Analyst

               Office: +1 512-279-9479

               Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

               Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

               www.stratfor.com

             --

             Sean Noonan

             Tactical Analyst

             Office: +1 512-279-9479

             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

             www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-03 16:23:51",1,"2012-02-28 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1627842_re-os-uk-us-australia-ct-wikileaks-back-online-assange-close.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1628042,"Re: WATCH ITEM- WikiLeaks 'Insurance File'
","   Yes.=A0 The problem is at least one other person has it too.=A0

   On 12/7/10 3:26 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 Founder needs to be water boarded until he gives us th=
 e code.

 scott stewart wrote:

 Remember what I said this morning about blow-back to them if they
 release names of innocent people.

 *From:* analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
 [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] *On Behalf Of *Sean Noonan
 *Sent:* Tuesday, December 07, 2010 3:16 PM
 *To:* Analyst List
 *Cc:* watchofficer
 *Subject:* Re: WATCH ITEM- WikiLeaks 'Insurance File'

 Though actually now I'm seeing a lot of rhetoric that the events so
 far have not reached the level for Wikileaks to release this file. Was
 it a bluff?

 LONDON -- Even though its founder is under arrest, WikiLeaks says it
 has no plans, for now, to release the code that would reveal some of
 its most important documents.

 The code is an \"insurance
 <http://www.foxnews.com=
 /world/2010/12/07/wikileaks-plans-release-insurance-file/>\"
 file that WikiLeaks says has been given to some of its supporters in
 case of an emergency. It's a key to a heavily encrypted version of the
 documents.

 A spokesman says it will only be used if \"grave matters\" take place
 involving WikiLeaks staff. But he didn't elaborate on what those might be.
 Read more:
 http://www.f=
 oxnews.com/world/2010/12/07/wikileaks-plans-release-insurance-file/#ixzz17S=
 VW0dZn

 Assange:
 \"The Cable Gate archive has been spread, along with significant
 material from the US and other countries to over 100,000 people in
 encrypted form,\" he said in the online forum. \"If something happens to
 us, the key parts will be released automatically. Further, the Cable
 Gate archives is in the hands of multiple news organizations.=94
 http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2010/1207/Will-WikiLeaks-Jul=
 ian-Assange-now-arrested-take-the-nuclear-option


 On 12/7/10 1:49 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

 Assange was denied bail this morning. They previously threatened to
 release the insurance file if their site was shut down or if Assange
 was arrested/\"persecuted.\" Now both have happened.

 Please watch for them to release it.

 --=20

 Sean Noonan

 Tactical Analyst

 Office: +1 512-279-9479

 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.=
 stratfor.com <http://www.stratfor.com>

 --=20

 Sean Noonan

 Tactical Analyst

 Office: +1 512-279-9479

 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.=
 stratfor.com <http://www.stratfor.com>


   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-07 22:32:58",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1628042_re-watch-item-wikileaks-insurance-file-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
1629270,"Re: More on Cohen
","   i think he has some interest in africa.=C2=A0 don't get some shit in your
   twatter from him.....

   info page:

   http://www.cfr.org/experts/iran-technology-and-for=
   eign-policy-terrorism/jared-cohen/b16451

   On 2/9/11 2:40 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     What?! I'm in love. How the hell does he know swahili

     On 2011 Feb 9, at 13:19, \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com> wrote:

       Hahahaha. mainly he just talks aboput his trips to egypt and nigeria.

       Bayless, you could be homies with this guy. He is also fluent in
       swahili

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: \"scott stewart\" <scott.stewart@stra= tfor.com>
       Date: Wed, 9 Feb 2011 12:13:27 -0600 (CST)
       To: 'Sean Noonan'<sean.noonan@stratfor= .com>; 'Bayless
       Parsley'<bayless.parsley@= stratfor.com>
       Subject: RE: More on Cohen

       That sounds borderline pornographic.

       <o:= p>=C2=A0

       <o:= p>=C2=A0

       From: Sean Noonan [mailto:sean.noonan@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Wednesday, February 09, 2011 1:08 PM
       To: Bayless Parsley; TACTICAL
       Subject: Re: More on Cohen

       =C2=A0

       tons of shit on his twatter

       http://twitter.com/j= aredcohen

       On 2/9/11 12:06 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       yes.

       On 2/9/11 12:05 PM, Anya Alfano wrote:

 Huffington Post is saying that Cohen was the State Dept gu=
 y responsible

 for delaying the scheduled maintenance on Twitter so the I=
 ranian

 revolution could keep going.=C2=A0 Also a mention of his A=
 YM involvement.

 =C2=A0

 Huff Post bio of Cohen here --

 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jared-cohen</o:=
 p>

 =C2=A0

 On 2/9/11 12:56 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

 Also, please make sure to continue cc'ing me on emails t=
 o tactical.

 Thx again.

 =C2=A0

 Btw The other parsley guy is my new bff. He looks like t=
 he comic

 bookstore owner from The Simpsons.

 =C2=A0

 On 2011 Feb 9, at 11:52, Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.c=
 om> wrote:

 =C2=A0

 Check out this article/interview with FP -- this Cohen=
  fellow just

 turned 29 in November.=C2=A0 Definitely a different so=
 rt of background -- he

 was a Rhodes scholar, spent time in Iran, hung out in =
 Iraq during the

 war, etc.

 =C2=A0

 http://www.foreignpolicy.com/ar=
 ticles/2010/09/07/jared_cohen

       =C2=A0

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

       =C2=A0

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2011-02-09 21:42:07",1,"2012-03-14 22:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1629270_re-more-on-cohen-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","bayless.parsley@stratfor.com",""
1630947,"Re: Profile of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange
","   yeah.  he gave a great demonstration of that in this interview:
   http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/2010/10/24/2010-10-24_wikileaks_julian_assange_walks_out_of_cnn_interview_when_asked_about_rape_charge.html

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"scott stewart\" <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Sunday, October 24, 2010 1:15:22 PM
   Subject: RE: Profile of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange

   He is a delusional nut.

    

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Sean Noonan
   Sent: Sunday, October 24, 2010 11:56 AM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: Profile of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange

    

   his ego will be his downfall

   On 10/24/10 9:51 AM, Nate Hughes wrote:

   October 23, 2010
   WikiLeaks Founder on the Run, Trailed by Notoriety
   By JOHN F. BURNS and RAVI SOMAIYA
   LONDON a** Julian Assange moves like a hunted man. In a noisy Ethiopian
   restaurant in Londona**s rundown Paddington district, he pitches his voice
   barely above a whisper to foil the Western intelligence agencies he fears.

   He demands that his dwindling number of loyalists use expensive encrypted
   cellphones and swaps his own as other men change shirts. He checks into
   hotels under false names, dyes his hair, sleeps on sofas and floors, and
   uses cash instead of credit cards, often borrowed from friends.

   a**By being determined to be on this path, and not to compromise, Ia**ve
   wound up in an extraordinary situation,a** Mr. Assange said over lunch
   last Sunday, when he arrived sporting a woolen beanie and a wispy stubble
   and trailing a youthful entourage that included a filmmaker assigned to
   document any unpleasant surprises.

   In his remarkable journey to notoriety, Mr. Assange, founder of the
   WikiLeaks whistle-blowersa** Web site, sees the next few weeks as his most
   hazardous. Now he is making his most brazen disclosure yet: 391,832 secret
   documents on the Iraqi war. He held a news conference in London on
   Saturday, saying that the release a**constituted the most comprehensive
   and detailed account of any war ever to have entered the public record.a**

   Twelve weeks ago, he posted on his organizationa**s Web site some 77,000
   classified Pentagon documents on the Afghan conflict.

   Much has changed since 2006, when Mr. Assange, a 39-year-old Australian,
   used years of computer hacking and what friends call a near genius I.Q. to
   establish WikiLeaks, redefining whistle-blowing by gathering secrets in
   bulk, storing them beyond the reach of governments and others determined
   to retrieve them, then releasing them instantly, and globally.

   Now it is not just governments that denounce him: some of his own comrades
   are abandoning him for what they see as erratic and imperious behavior,
   and a nearly delusional grandeur unmatched by an awareness that the
   digital secrets he reveals can have a price in flesh and blood.

   Several WikiLeaks colleagues say he alone decided to release the Afghan
   documents without removing the names of Afghan intelligence sources for
   NATO troops. a**We were very, very upset with that, and with the way he
   spoke about it afterwards,a** said Birgitta Jonsdottir, a core WikiLeaks
   volunteer and a member of Icelanda**s Parliament. a**If he could just
   focus on the important things he does, it would be better.a**

   He is also being investigated in connection with accusations of rape and
   molestation involving two Swedish women. Mr. Assange has denied the
   allegations, saying the relations were consensual. But prosecutors in
   Sweden have yet to formally approve charges or dismiss the case eight
   weeks after the complaints against Mr. Assange were filed, damaging his
   quest for a secure base for himself and WikiLeaks. Though he characterizes
   the claims as a**a smear campaign,a** the scandal has compounded the
   pressures of his cloaked life.

   a**When it comes to the point where you occasionally look forward to being
   in prison on the basis that you might be able to spend a day reading a
   book, the realization dawns that perhaps the situation has become a little
   more stressful than you would like,a** he said over the London lunch.

   Exposing Secrets

   Mr. Assange has come a long way from an unsettled childhood in Australia
   as a self-acknowledged social misfit who narrowly avoided prison after
   being convicted on 25 charges of computer hacking in 1995. History is
   punctuated by spies, defectors and others who revealed the most
   inflammatory secrets of their age. Mr. Assange has become that figure for
   the Internet era, with as yet unreckoned consequences for himself and for
   the keepers of the worlda**s secrets.

   a**Ia**ve been waiting 40 years for someone to disclose information on a
   scale that might really make a difference,a** said Daniel Ellsberg, who
   exposed a 1,000-page secret study of the Vietnam War in 1971 that became
   known as the Pentagon Papers.

   Mr. Ellsberg said he saw kindred spirits in Mr. Assange and Pfc. Bradley
   Manning, the 22-year-old former Army intelligence operative under
   detention in Quantico, Va., suspected of leaking the Iraq and Afghan
   documents.

   a**They were willing to go to prison for life, or be executed, to put out
   this information,a** Mr. Ellsberg said.

   Underlying Mr. Assangea**s anxieties is deep uncertainty about what the
   United States and its allies may do next. Pentagon and Justice department
   officials have said they are weighing his actions under the 1917 Espionage
   Act. They have demanded that Mr. Assange a**returna** all government
   documents in his possession, undertake not to publish any new ones and not
   a**solicita** further American materials.

   Mr. Assange has responded by going on the run, but has found no refuge.
   Amid the Afghan documents controversy, he flew to Sweden, seeking a
   residence permit and protection under that countrya**s broad press
   freedoms. His initial welcome was euphoric.

   a**They called me the James Bond of journalism,a** he recalled wryly.
   a**It got me a lot of fans, and some of them ended up causing me a bit of
   trouble.a**

   Within days, his liaisons with two Swedish women led to an arrest warrant
   on charges of rape and molestation. Karin Rosander, a spokesperson for the
   prosecutor, said last week that the police were continuing to investigate.

   In late September, he left Stockholm for Berlin. A bag he checked on the
   almost empty flight disappeared, with three encrypted laptops. It has not
   resurfaced; Mr. Assange suspects it was intercepted. From Germany, he
   traveled to London, wary at being detained on arrival. Under British law,
   his Australian passport entitles him to remain for six months. Iceland,
   another country with generous press freedoms and a strong WikiLeaks
   following, has also lost its appeal, with Mr. Assange concluding that its
   government, like Britaina**s, is too easily influenced by Washington. In
   his native Australia, ministers have signaled their willingness to
   cooperate with the United States if it opens a prosecution. Mr. Assange
   said a senior Australian official told him, a**You play outside the rules,
   and you will be dealt with outside the rules.a**

   He faces attack from within, too.

   After the Sweden scandal, strains within WikiLeaks reached a breaking
   point, with some of Mr. Assangea**s closest collaborators publicly
   defecting. The New York Times spoke with dozens of people who have worked
   with and supported him in Iceland, Sweden, Germany, Britain and the United
   States. What emerged was a picture of the founder of WikiLeaks as its
   prime innovator and charismatic force but as someone whose growing
   celebrity has been matched by an increasingly dictatorial, eccentric and
   capricious style.

   Internal Turmoil

   Effectively, as Mr. Assange pursues his fugitivea**s life, his leadership
   is enforced over the Internet. Even remotely, his style is imperious. In
   an online exchange with one volunteer, a transcript of which was obtained
   by The Times, he warned that WikiLeaks would disintegrate without him.
   a**Wea**ve been in a Unity or Death situation for a few months now,a** he
   said.

   When Herbert Snorrason, a 25-year-old political activist in Iceland,
   questioned Mr. Assangea**s judgment over a number of issues in an online
   exchange last month, Mr. Assange was uncompromising. a**I dona**t like
   your tone,a** he said, according to a transcript. a**If it continues,
   youa**re out.a**

   Mr. Assange cast himself as indispensable. a**I am the heart and soul of
   this organization, its founder, philosopher, spokesperson, original coder,
   organizer, financier, and all the rest,a** he said. a**If you have a
   problem with me,a** he told Mr. Snorrason, using an expletive, he should
   quit.

   In an interview about the exchange, Mr. Snorrasona**s conclusion was
   stark. a**He is not in his right mind,a** he said. In London, Mr. Assange
   was dismissive of all those who have criticized him. a**These are not
   consequential people,a** he said.

   a**About a dozena** disillusioned volunteers have left recently, said
   Smari McCarthy, an Icelandic volunteer who has distanced himself in the
   recent turmoil. In late summer, Mr. Assange suspended Daniel
   Domscheit-Berg, a German who had been the WikiLeaks spokesman under the
   pseudonym Daniel Schmitt, accusing him of unspecified a**bad behavior.a**
   Many more activists, Mr. McCarthy said, are likely to follow.

   Mr. Assange denied that any important volunteers had quit, apart from Mr.
   Domscheit-Berg. But further defections could paralyze an organization that
   Mr. Assange says has 40 core volunteers and about 800 mostly unpaid
   followers to maintain a diffuse web of computer servers and to secure the
   system against attack a** to guard against the kind of infiltration that
   WikiLeaks itself has used to generate its revelations.

   Mr. Assangea**s detractors also accuse him of pursuing a vendetta against
   the United States. In London, Mr. Assange said America was an increasingly
   militarized society and a threat to democracy. Moreover, he said, a**we
   have been attacked by the United States, so we are forced into a position
   where we must defend ourselves.a**

   Even among those challenging Mr. Assangea**s leadership style, there is
   recognition that the intricate computer and financial architecture
   WikiLeaks uses to shield it against its enemies has depended on its
   founder. a**Hea**s very unique and extremely capable,a** said Ms.
   Jonsdottir, the Icelandic lawmaker.

   A Rash of Scoops

   Before posting the documents on Afghanistan and Iraq, WikiLeaks enjoyed a
   string of coups.

   Supporters were thrilled when the organization posted documents on the
   GuantA!namo Bay detention operation, the contents of Sarah Palina**s
   personal Yahoo email account, reports of extrajudicial killings in Kenya
   and East Timor, the membership rolls of the neo-Nazi British National
   Party and a combat video showing American Apache helicopters in Baghdad in
   2007 gunning down at least 12 people, including two Reuters journalists.

   But now, WikiLeaks has been met with new doubts. Amnesty International and
   Reporters Without Borders have joined the Pentagon in criticizing the
   organization for risking peoplea**s lives by publishing war logs
   identifying Afghans working for the Americans or acting as informers.

   A Taliban spokesman in Afghanistan using the pseudonym Zabiullah Mujahid
   said in a telephone interview that the Taliban had formed a nine-member
   a**commissiona** after the Afghan documents were posted a**to find about
   people who are spying.a** He said the Taliban had a a**wanteda** list of
   1,800 Afghans and was comparing that with names WikiLeaks provided.

   a**After the process is completed, our Taliban court will decide about
   such people,a** he said.

   Mr. Assange defended posting unredacted documents, saying he balanced his
   decision a**with the knowledge of the tremendous good and prevention of
   harm that is causeda** by putting the information into the public domain.
   a**There are no easy choices on the table for this organization,a** he
   said.

   But if Mr. Assange is sustained by his sense of mission, faith is fading
   among his fellow conspirators. His mood was caught vividly in an exchange
   on Sept. 20 with another senior WikiLeaks figure. In an encrypted online
   chat, a transcript of which was passed to The Times, Mr. Assange was
   dismissive of his colleagues. He described them as a**a confederacy of
   fools,a** and asked his interlocutor, a**Am I dealing with a complete
   retard?a**

   In London, Mr. Assange was angered when asked about the rifts. He
   responded testily to questions about WikiLeaksa**s opaque finances,
   Private Manninga**s fate and WikiLeaksa**s apparent lack of accountability
   to anybody but himself, calling the questions a**cretinous,a**
   a**facilea** and reminiscent of a**kindergarten.a**

   Mr. Assange has been equivocal about Private Manning, talking in late
   summer as though the soldier was unavoidable collateral damage, much like
   the Afghans named as informers in the secret Pentagon documents.

   But in London, he took a more sympathetic view, describing Private Manning
   as a a**political prisonera** facing a jail term of up to 52 years,
   without confirming that he was the source of the disclosed war logs. a**We
   have a duty to assist Mr. Manning and other people who are facing legal
   and other consequences,a** he said.

   Mr. Assangea**s own fate seems as imperiled as Private Manninga**s. Last
   Monday, the Swedish Migration Board said Mr. Assangea**s bid for a
   residence permit had been rejected. His British visa will expire early
   next year. When he left the London restaurant at twilight, heading into
   the shadows, he declined to say where he was going. The man who has put
   some of the worlda**s most powerful institutions on his watch list was,
   once more, on the move.

   Eric Schmitt contributed reporting from Washington, and Dexter Filkins
   from Kabul, Afghanistan.

   --

   Nathan Hughes
   Director
   Military Analysis
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com

    

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   Office: +1 512-279-9479
   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   www.stratfor.com
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-29 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1630947_re-profile-of-wikileaks-founder-julian-assange-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","scott.stewart@stratfor.com",""
1633006,"Re: [TACTICAL] Code name Planesman
","   Hu is the president of China?!?

   Fred Burton wrote:

     I can't keep these Chinemen staright.  Who is who or is who Dr. Who ? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: tactical-bounces@stratfor.com
     [mailto:tactical-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Sean Noonan
     Sent: Friday, February 19, 2010 8:27 AM
     To: Tactical
     Subject: Re: [TACTICAL] Code name Planesman
     Yes.  Is Yu Zhensan (I misspelled the name originally).  This is also
     who the other source was referring to in some other insight.
     http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2004/dec/14/20041214-104813-7821r/

     >From CN504:
     \"In my career, I saw many cases where there was an important PRCIS link
     at some point, but the tradecraft evident in collecting information, in
     transferring the information out of the USA, and establishing and
     maintaining operational security almost always was really weak.  I often
     found myself wondering if the tradecraft I saw in a given case was
     something made up by co-conspirator Zhang San or was really PRCIS
     methodology.  \"

     I believe Zhang San is Zhensan but I i'm not sure.  FBI needs to learn
     chinese. 

     Sean Noonan wrote:

       http://books.google.com/books?id=-JkRyQX3V_IC&pg=PA49&dq=yu+zhen+shan+smith&cd=2#v=onepage&q=&f=false

       That link should work--Smith kind of writes around it on pages 48-50
       (though the whole chapter talks about Planesman).  I was pretty sure
       it was Yu Zhenshan when you sent this out last night--a senior officer
       in MSS Foreign Affairs Department.  And the way Smith wrote this, it
       seems to confirm.

       Would be great to have a meeting. 

       Fred Burton wrote:

 I can ask the FBI to arrange a meeting bwt him and us or you.  

 -----Original Message-----
 From: tactical-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:tactical-bounces@stratfor.com]
 On Behalf Of Sean Noonan
 Sent: Friday, February 19, 2010 7:45 AM
 To: Tactical
 Subject: Re: [TACTICAL] Code name Planesman

 I'm 90% sure I know who this is.  I am confirming.  And will see if I can
 find out about his whereabouts.  I sent you an email yesterday about it.



 Fred Burton wrote:
  

 Who was he?  I can make an effort to talk to him, if desired.  

 -----Original Message-----
 From: scott stewart [mailto:scott.stewart@stratfor.com]
 Sent: Friday, February 19, 2010 7:37 AM
 To: burton@stratfor.com; 'Tactical'
 Subject: RE: [TACTICAL] Code name Planesman

 Yes.

 -----Original Message-----
 From: tactical-bounces@stratfor.com
 [mailto:tactical-bounces@stratfor.com]
 On Behalf Of Fred Burton
 Sent: Thursday, February 18, 2010 11:07 PM
 To: Tactical
 Subject: [TACTICAL] Code name Planesman

 Did you note IC's info on ChiCom source/defector code named Planesman?


  
    

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com



  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-02-19 15:33:37",1,"2012-03-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1633006_re-tactical-code-name-planesman-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","tactical@stratfor.com",""
1633932,"Re: Assange is off the hook...
","   Also dude... on a note of hilarity... imagine what would happen if people
   could no longer leak or publish leaks... The entire government would stop
   working. \"Leaking\" is how shit gets done.

   Don't be mad at the \"method\", be mad at this douche.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 11:48:48 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   like jogging.......

   ?????

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:47:05 AM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   Yeah but my point was that the common folk are not outraged except at
   Assange. He wanted people to be outraged at the government. Nobody is, in
   fact most people think the diplomats are doing their job. That's a change
   considering what low opinion most people have of diplomats.

   And as for my comment about wikileaks, I was being far more philosophical
   than the question of whether it is illegal or not. From time to time, you
   got to leak some stuff... it's just the way it is. It's good for the
   country. Doesn't feel nice, but it's good. Like jogging.

   But my overall point here is that Assange is just an anti-American prick
   who things he is going to leak some stuff that leaves the American people
   outraged. What an idiot. As Stewart said the other night, this is the
   country that sold weapons to Iran so that we can fund right-wing
   guerrillas in Central America. And this idiot thought we would be outraged
   by someone calling Merkel \"risk-averse\".

   He is a fucking idiot.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 11:42:17 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   Queensland= Aussie Texas.  Y'all have an attitude that Alabamans don't. 

   Last I saw Assange was charged with sexual assault, not rape.  That's
   different in the US, obviously, but no idea about Sweden. 

   And Marko, I beg to differ.  The leaks are wrong.  Are they seriously
   damaging? No, but that doesn't make it OK.  Serious laws were violated
   here, and the only reason they have some freedom of movement is because
   Wikileaks (presumably) is not state-sponsored and claim to be some sort of
   journalism.  But that is BS, these documents were stolen and published
   illegally.  We can go into the whole argument of overclassification- and
   be right to say that most of this stuff should no longer be classified. 
   That does not change the fact that the documents were classified.  Some
   sort of civil disobedience is not going to change the USG's culture of
   secrecy.  That idea by Assange is just ludicrous.  This is just an
   NGO-version of espionage and everyone involved should be arrested and
   tried accordingly (and disrupted if we can't get them to court).

   What Matt said about a large number of the American right being pretty
   pissed off about these is also true.  Assange has been called a terrorist
   many times, I think Palin wanted to hunt him down.   

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Meredith Friedman\" <mfriedman@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:21:43 AM
   Subject: RE: Assange is off the hook...

   The Landsdowne Hotel and the pub crawls...but I totally agree with your
   view on Queensland!!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Chris Farnham
   Sent: Sunday, December 05, 2010 11:17 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...
   Oh the teaching is still first rate and turned me in to the intellectual
   Adonis that I am. Was just that the majority of the company there sucked.
   Nestled between Glebe and Newtown since their gentrification hasn't
   helped, I don't think. Thank god for the Landsdowne Hotel!!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Meredith Friedman\" <mfriedman@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 1:09:42 PM
   Subject: RE: Assange is off the hook...

   I am a proud alumnus of Sydney Uni thank you very much. But it was much
   better back then....

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com]
   On Behalf Of Chris Farnham
   Sent: Sunday, December 05, 2010 11:07 PM
   To: Analyst List
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...
   If you think you're going to get any argument out of me on Usyd you're
   going to be disappointed. 
   The place was full of left wing socialist wankers or college boy, Aviator
   wearing, popped collar rich kids. 
   Going to hazard a guess that Assange may also have studied there as well.
   Queensland is Australia's version of Alabama, only with better beaches. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"George Friedman\" <gfriedman@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:53:55 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   It is possible to revoke citizenship on the grounds of being a dickhead
   except in Australia, where all of Queensland and a good part of South
   Australia, along with all of Sydney Uni would lose their passports.

   On 12/05/10 22:42 , Chris Farnham wrote:

     Is it possible to revoke some one's citizenship on the grounds of them
     being a total dickhead? 
     I don't care about the other leaks but the ones he has made that
     potentially damage Australian interests upset me. 
     If I thought I could switch this dickhead off without getting done I
     don't think I'd have too much of a problem.
     BTW, close family friend in Sweden who knows the girl that is pressing
     charges tells me that there is absolutely nothing behind it other than
     prosecutors that are looking to make a name for themselves. My friend
     speaks rather disparagingly about the girl who is claiming molestation.
     I also think the whole rape thing is incorrect for if I remember
     correctly rape was never the charge. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:23:03 PM
     Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

     What a douche.

     And I just want to be clear here... I have no problem with the leaks. I
     think they're great. And I think it may be good on some level to have
     stuff like this come out once in a while. What I can't stand is A) his
     ego trip and B) his clear anti-Americanism. Take the time to read the
     intro to Cablegate when you get the chance. This guy hates America more
     than OBL.

     What I love, however, is how nobody in the U.S. is mad about the cables.
     Hell, I have a better opinion of State Department diplomats now than I
     did before the cables. They actually said a few smart things here and
     there. I actually gave them a tip of my hat.

     I want to see him try to take on the Russians. He'd be going bald in an
     Iceland hospital within days.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:11:39 PM
     Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

     should we change our Stratfor motto now?
     Predictive, insightful intelligence...in a post-Cablegate world.
     On Dec 5, 2010, at 10:05 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

       This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: a**I believe
      geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases.a**

       Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer
       saying how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files --
       including names of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has a**been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information
      age.a**

       Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
       extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
       password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly
       endangering U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would
       it not then be possible to prosecute him for espionage? 

       -- 
       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
       Marko Papic
       Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
       STRATFOR
       700 Lavaca Street - 900
       Austin, Texas
       78701 USA
       P: + 1-512-744-4094
       marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --
     Marko Papic

     STRATFOR Analyst
     C: + 1-512-905-3091
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --

     Chris Farnham
     Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
     China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
     Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   Office: +1 512-279-9479
   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   Office: +1 512-279-9479
   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-12-06 07:05:23",1,"2012-02-29 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1633932_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","sean.noonan@stratfor.com",""
1634202,"Re: USE ME Re: Discussion- Assange Arrested
","   If we decide to publish on this, I could probably benefit from a close
   read through from one or more of you.=C2=A0 I'm not sure my thoughts are
   coming across clearly.=C2=A0

   On 12/7/10 7:43 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     *Here's my full set of thoughts.=C2=A0 This may be a little too informal
     for our regular articles.=C2=A0 Hopefully this addresses the questions
     that have already come up.=C2=A0

     London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
     public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.=C2=A0 He = is
     due to appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of rape,
     accused by two woman in Sweden.=C2=A0 Charges of sexual assault rarely
     are passed through Interpol red notices, like this case, so this is no
     doubt about trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release of government
     documents.=C2=A0 While it's possible that Assange's arrest could disrupt
     the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it will not stop the release of
     cables in the short-term and governments will now be concerned about
     what the organization may release in revenge.

     Leadership is extremely important in non-governmental organizations that
     have not institutionalized.=C2=A0 From terrorist grous=C2=A0 to
     charities [LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090923_death_top_indonesian_militant</=
     a>], these organizations often ebb and flow along with their
     founders.=C2= =A0 WikiLeaks is a new organization that has a created a
     novel method for an old practice- leaking confidential government
     information in an attempt to influence politics.=C2=A0 Leaking will not
     go away with Assange's arrest, but WikiLeaks might.=C2=A0

     WikiLeaks created itself with Assange as the only public face-- he leads
     supports, drives donations, and faces criticism.=C2=A0 This has made
     many in the organization unhappy, and some have left it after
     disagreeing with him.=C2=A0 If Assange were to face charges in Sweden
     for sexual assault or new charges in the UK or US and was found guilty,
     WikiLeaks would still need someone to operate it.=C2=A0 Assan= ge may
     have someone waiting in the wings, but that is not evident.=C2=A0=

     WikiLeaks has also suffered logistically and as a brand.=C2=A0 As
     national governments put pressure on its infrastructure, its websites
     have been shut and most importantly its main source of funding- PayPal-
     has closed WikiLeaks account.=C2=A0 With such pressu= re and government
     monitoring, future leakers may be too afraid of getting intercepted and
     go elsewhere.=C2=A0 Moreover, this new set of documents have not worked
     out like Assange expected- the public is not angry at the State
     Department, but many are angry at Assange and his organization.=C2=A0

     Assange's arrest won't stop the continued leaks of this large batch of
     US State Department cables.=C2=A0 It also won't shut down WikiLeaks,
     which still maintains its website and the ability to collect information
     from leakers.=C2=A0 So in the short-term, WikiLea= ks will
     maintain.=C2=A0 The question remains if it has created a truly
     sustainable institutions-- one where leaders are replacable, members can
     adapt to changing circumstance, and representatives can aid and inspire
     new leakers.=C2=A0

     If Asange is extradited to Sweden and tried of one count of unlawful
     coercion, two counts of sexual molestation and one count of rape, will
     he be able to maintain WikiLeaks image?=C2=A0 That is hard to say, but
     growing public criticism of him indicates his inability to grow
     WikiLeaks support base.=C2=A0 Western govrenments also fear whatever is
     contained in his ___ file, for which he threatens to release an
     encryption key if something happens to him.=C2=A0 WikiLeaks has already
     released its most damaging documents= -- its attempt to get public
     attention-- and they haven't amounted to much.=C2=A0 This new file
     likely contains no more damaging informatio= n, but instead is full of
     names.=C2=A0 The names of sources who will be = at risk and those of
     diplomats, military or intelligence officers who could lose their
     jobs.=C2=A0

     WikiLeaks is now facing a conundrum that all new organizations do--the
     ability to maintain and transition leadership through adverse
     circumstances.=C2=A0 Maybe Assange will be released quickly-- STRATFOR
     cannot speak to the veracity of the charges against him-- but if he
     isn't, WikiLeaks will struggle to survive.=C2=A0

     On 12/7/10 6:36 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

       I would imagine the most politically \"exciting\" stuff has been
       published (much of which we already knew) but some of the less sexy
       things may be more damaging when released or released uncensored b/c
       it burns sources and people's careers (a few people have already lost
       their jobs in western countries...what about sources in less
       democratic countries)

       On 12/7/10 5:18 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

         I am not clear about your argument in the last line. Why this arrest
         could disrupt long-term viability of Wikileaks? I would say the
         opposite, that there might be short-term disruptions (latest release
         was two days ago) but Wikileaks will work in the long-term. They
         already have over 250K documents and if they release them at the
         same pace, Wikileaks will have very long-term viability. Also, Ben's
         point below about possibly backed up documents is worth
         considering.=C2=A0
         One more question. How do we now that Wikileaks has more sensitive
         information that governments should be concerned about as a revenge?
         Recall George's initial argument that they probably published most
         sensitive information at the very beginning to draw attention.=C2=A0

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@st= ratfor.com>
         To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor= .com>
         Sent: Tuesday, December 7, 2010 12:42:49 PM
         Subject: Discussion- Assange Arrested

         We had the discussion below on Friday when it was first suggested
         that Assange would be arrested.=C2=A0 Here's a bit more:

         London Metropolitan police arrested Julian Assange, the founder and
         public spokesman for WikiLeaks, at 0930 GMT December 7.=C2=A0 He is
         due to appear in a court in Westminster soon to face charges of
         rape, accused by two woman in Sweden.=C2=A0 Charges of sexual
         assault rarely are passed through Interpol red notices, like this
         case, so this is no doubt about trying to disrupt WikiLeaks release
         of government documents.=C2=A0 While it's possible that Assange's
         arrest could disrupt the long-term viability of WikiLeaks, it will
         not stop the release of cables in the short-term and governments
         will now be concerned about what the organization may release in
         revenge.

         see discussion below.=C2=A0 (revenge =3D that encrypted 'security'
         file)

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@= stratfor.com>
         To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratf= or.com>
         Sent: Friday, December 3, 2010 10:23:51 AM
         Subject: Re: [OS] UK/US/AUSTRALIA/CT- WikiLeaks back online, Assange
         close=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2= =A0=C2=A0=C2=A0to arrest

         yes, most likely would not stop these.=C2=A0 but it could disrupt
         whatever might be next.=C2=A0

         Also all this trouble with internet hosting could serve to slow down
         this set of leaks.=C2=A0 And maybe a combination of wikileaks arrest
         and server shutdowns could stop it.=C2=A0
         On 12/3/10 9:20 AM, Ben West wrote:

           If Assange is running the show and his staff isn't as confident as
           he is, then arresting him now could very well stop the flow of
           cables. But all it takes is one person to keep it going - or just
           dump them all at once if it gets too dicey, and these files have
           been very widely distributed so far. I can't imagine anyone
           reclaiming all the documents now.

           On 12/3/2010 8:54 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

             yeah also remember there was an article by nytimes i think that
             alot of people on his staff were uncomfortable with the way
             things were playing out, so without him there they may loose
             nerve or come to their better senses

             On 12/3/10 8:48 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               Yes, like Fred's source pointed out--arrest and trial would
               just be a political circus.=C2=A0 It would probably not
               disrupt wikileaks.=C2=A0 BUT, occasonally a leader makes an
               organization, and maybe no one as capable will be willing to
               fill his shoes.=C2=A0 Or at least, won't be able to get = as
               much pubilicity for wikileaks.=C2=A0 As you also said, it
               could tarnish both Assange's and Wikileaks' repution.=C2=A0
               That coul dserve to discredit and undermine the group.=C2=A0
               Maybe peop= le would be less inclined to leak to it, or the
               public would be less inclined to pay attention--or more
               importantly support wikileaks financially.=C2=A0 Though I
               admit the chance of this causing the public to pay less
               attention is minimal, and in fact would probably increase
               attention on the guy.=C2=A0

               (though personally, getting a rapist off the street is getting
               a rapist off the street.=C2=A0 Also, his mom owns a puppet
               theater...)

               On 12/3/10 8:38 AM, Ben West wrote:

                 What would the overall significance of his arrest be? It's
                 likely that the files are backed up elsewhere and that
                 someone else could give the go-ahead for releasing them
                 (that could very well already be the case) and if his
                 back-ups are anything like Assange, they would welcome the
                 publicity that would come to them by filling his shoes.

                 If the British got custody of him, they could conduct
                 searches or evidence that would support rape charges and, if
                 they happened to find material regarding the leaks, that
                 could lead to new charges. But this has been coming for a
                 while, and if Assange was smart, he would have turned over
                 any really sensitive stuff by now, which would decrease the
                 likelihood of police finding anything juicy.

                 Seems to me that all this really does is tarnish his
                 reputation and make him look like scum. It provides some
                 public distraction from all the leaked documents, but
                 doesn't undermine their impact - just undermines the
                 character of the person who facilitated the leaks.

                 any other thoughts?

                 On 12/3/2010 7:40 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                   I may have sent this out before- Assange walking out of a
                   CNN interview.

                   http://www.youtube.com/watc= h?v=3DLisa9XTRLb4

                   just shows how far his head is up his ass.=C2= =A0
                   On 12/3/10 7:32 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                     looks like Assange is in the UK and they might actually
                     roll on him.

                     On 12/3/10 7:31 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                       *OG source
                       Net closes on Assange: arrest by British police
                       expected in days
                       By Mark Hughes and Jerome Taylor
                       Friday, 3 December 2010
                       http://www.independent.co=
                       .uk/news/uk/home-news/net-closes-on-assange-arrest-by-british-police-expect=
                       ed-in-days-2149805.html

                       Julian Assange, the WikiLeaks founder, is expected to
                       be arrested in the coming days after Swedish
                       prosecutors filed a new warrant with British
                       authorities.

                       The Independent revealed yesterday that a procedural
                       error with the European Arrest Warrant had delayed the
                       arrest of the 39-year-old Australian, who is wanted in
                       Sweden over sexual allegations but has been in England
                       since October.

                       Police in Gothenburg claim they have now submitted a
                       fresh warrant to the Serious Organised Crime Agency.
                       Soca is expected to instruct Scotland Yard to arrest
                       Mr Assange and have him appear before an extradition
                       hearing =E2=80=93 although as of = last night the
                       Metropolitan Police had yet to receive the warrant.

                       Police sources have previously said that they received
                       a letter from Mr Assange's UK-based lawyer, Mark
                       Stephens, containing information about how to contact
                       Mr Assange should they need to.

                       Details of the new arrest warrant came as a last-ditch
                       attempt to have the allegations against Mr Assange
                       dropped failed. Sweden's highest court upheld the
                       arrest order and refused to let him appeal against a
                       lower court's ruling.

                       Last night, Mr Assange's family spoke of their fears
                       for his safety after increasingly shrill statements
                       from American commentators who have called for his
                       assassination. His mother, Christine Assange, said
                       \"the forces that he's challenging are too big\".

                       The arrest warrant filed with Soca states that he was
                       wanted on suspicion of rape, sexual molestation and
                       unlawful coercion. But Soca requested a new warrant. A
                       spokeswoman for the Swedish National Police Board told
                       the BBC that the original one had been refused because
                       it listed only the maximum penalty for the most
                       serious crime alleged, rather than for all of the
                       crimes.

                       When the arrest is made, Mr Assange will be taken
                       before an extradition hearing at Westminster
                       magistrates' court. If he refuses to be extradited, a
                       judge will preside over an extradition hearing and
                       will rule whether he should be sent to Sweden or
                       discharged.

                       Last night, Mr Stephens said he would challenge any
                       arrest in British courts. \"The process in this case
                       has been so utterly irregular that the chances of a
                       valid arrest warrant being submitted to me are very
                       small,\" he said. Mr Stephens has accused Swedish
                       prosecutors of launching a witch-hunt against his
                       client, who strongly denies the rape allegations and
                       says he is being smeared because of the expos=C3=A9s
                       published by his website.

                       He has maintained that Swedish prosecutors have yet to
                       provide any evidence against Mr Assange and have
                       ignored his requests to meet with them. He also
                       expressed concerns at the way the UK and Swedish
                       authorities were handling the case.

                       \"I feel like I am sitting in the middle of a surreal
                       Swedish fairytale,\" he said. \"The trolls keep
                       threatening to come on and keep making noises off
                       stage. But at the moment, no appearance from them.\"

                       In an interview with an Australian newspaper, Mr
                       Assange's mother defended her son and lambasted hawks
                       in the US who have called for his death.

                       Ms Assange, who runs a puppet theatre in Noosa, a
                       Queensland beach resort, defended her son's decision
                       to publish thousands of classified US documents on the
                       website. \"He sees what he's doing as doing a good
                       thing in the world =E2=80=93 fighting baddies= , if
                       you like,\" she told Queensland's Courier-Mail.

                       Ms Assange =E2=80=93 who does not even own a computer
                       =E2=80=93 described her son as a her= o of the
                       internet. But she added that she feared he had \"gotten
                       too smart for himself\", saying: \"I'm concerned it's
                       gotten too big and the forces that he's challenging
                       are too big.\" She did not want him \"hunted down and
                       jailed\".

                       On 12/3/10 7:24 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                         WikiLeaks back online, Assange close to arrest

                         Updated 2 hours 45 minutes ago
                         http://www.abc.net.au=
                         /news/stories/2010/12/03/3084384.htm

                         The WikiLeaks website is back online with a new
                         Swiss address after its previous domain name was
                         killed.

                         The whistleblower website's original domain host,
                         EveryDNS.net, says it terminated its services
                         because Wikileaks had been coming under \"massive\"
                         cyber attacks.

                         The new address - wikileaks.ch - was put online six
                         hours after the original site wikileaks.org was
                         killed.

                         An internet trace of the new domain name suggests
                         that the site itself is still hosted in Sweden and
                         in France.

                         Web users accessing the wikileaks.ch address are
                         directed to a page under the URL
                         http://213.251.145.96= / which gives them access to
                         the former site, including a massive trove of leaked
                         US diplomatic traffic.

                         The WikiLeaks website released more than 250,000
                         secret US diplomatic cables this week, which has
                         left governments around the world scrambling to deal
                         with the fallout.

                         Meanwhile, British media reports Scotland Yard could
                         arrest the site's founder Julian Assange within
                         days.

                         Prosecutors in Sweden want to question Mr Assange
                         over alleged sex crimes involving two women during a
                         visit to Stockholm in August.

                         Mr Assange, who was born in Australia, has not been
                         charged and he denies the allegations.

                         He reportedly avoided arrest this week because
                         Swedish authorities had filled out an Interpol red
                         notice incorrectly.

                         Britain's Independent newspaper reports that police
                         know Mr Assange's whereabouts in England and are
                         expected to arrest him in the coming days.

                         Mr Assange's Stockholm-based lawyer Bjoern Hurtig
                         says he will fight his client's extradition to
                         Sweden in the event of his arrest.

                         \"Together with my British colleague Mark Stephens
                         and international experts, we will fight the
                         extradition warrants,\" he said.

                         A WikiLeaks spokesman says Mr Assange has to remain
                         out of the public eye because he is facing
                         assassination threats following the whistleblowing
                         website's publication of the secret cables.

                         Several US senators have also called for him to be
                         charged with espionage.

                         Senator Dianne Feinstein says the leak is a serious
                         breach of national security and action must be
                         taken.

                         \"We have reviewed the espionage statutes and we
                         believe it qualifies,\" she said.

                         \"That this, allowed to be carried out, incapacitates
                         this nation to carry out business.\"
                         --

                         Sean Noonan

                         Tactical Analyst

                         Office: +1 512-279-9479</= p>

                         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967</= p>

                         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                         www.stratfor.com

                       --

                       Sean Noonan

                       Tactical Analyst

                       Office: +1 512-279-9479

                       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                       www.stratfor.com<= /p>

                     --

                     Sean Noonan

                     Tactical Analyst

                     Office: +1 512-279-9479

                     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.</= p>

                     www.stratfor.com

                   --

                   Sean Noonan

                   Tactical Analyst

                   Office: +1 512-279-9479

                   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                   www.stratfor.com

 --=20
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX

               --

               Sean Noonan

               Tactical Analyst

               Office: +1 512-279-9479

               Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

               Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

               www.stratfor.com

 --=20
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@st=
 ratfor.com


 --=20
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         ww= w.stratfor.com

         --
         Sean Noonan
         Tactical Analyst
         Office: +1 512-279-9479
         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
         www.stratfor.com

         --
         --
         Emre Dogru
         STRATFOR =C2=A0
         Cell: +90.532.465.7514
         Fixed: +1.512.279.9468 =C2=A0
         emre.dogru@stratf= or.com =C2=A0
         www.stratfor.com

 --=20
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-07 14:46:33",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1634202_re-use-me-re-discussion-assange-arrested-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","hughes@stratfor.com,marko.papic@stratfor.com,ben.west@stratfor.com",""
1634932,"Fwd: Re: [Analytical & Intelligence Comments] RE: Taking Stock of
 WikiLeaks
","   no evidence. 

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Re: [Analytical & Intelligence Comments] RE: Taking Stock of      
            WikiLeaks                                                         
      Date: Tue, 14 Dec 2010 12:28:02 -0600                                   
      From: Captain Michael Mc Cright <mse.captainmccright@gmail.com>         
        To: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>                            

 This information was mentioned during an informal conversation with a
 (retired?) Federal Employee, I am certain he would not like to be
 named, and I suppose his information was
 also of speculative nature.

 On Tue, Dec 14, 2010 at 10:54 AM, Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com> wrote:
 > Dear Sir,
 >
 > Could you share with us where you got that information?  We've noted the
 > possiblity, but have yet to see evidence of sources who have lost their
 > lives.
 >
 > Thank you,
 >
 > Sean Noonan
 >
 > On 12/14/10 9:39 AM, MSE.CaptainMcCright@gmail.com wrote:
 >
 > MSE.CaptainMcCright@gmail.com sent a message using the contact form at
 > https://www.stratfor.com/contact.
 >
 > I understand appoximately 20 people have lost their lives.
 > due to  the sensitive nature of their work and a now public disclosure.
 >
 >
 > --
 >
 > Sean Noonan
 >
 > Tactical Analyst
 >
 > Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 >
 > www.stratfor.com



 --



 Best,


 Michael Mc Cright
 Maritime Synergy Enterprises,LLC

 MSE.CaptainMcCright@gmail.com
 Home/office 713 468 3393
 Cell 832 640 3393
 Fax 713 264-8640
","2010-12-14 19:28:55",1,"2012-03-01 23:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1634932_fwd-re-analytical-and-intelligence-comments-re-taking-stock.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","responses@stratfor.com",""
1636055,"Question for Comrade J
","   Fred,

   Korena told me to send you some questions.  I don't have much since I
   haven't read much about Russian intel since KGB.  But here are some quick
   thoughts:

   1. What are the main changes in Russian intelligence since the fall of the
   Soviet Union?  especially cultural shifts?

   2. What impact did changes in funding have?  How would he judge the
   current effectiveness of Russian intel against KGB in the past?

   3. Many state that the KGB trained Iranian's MOIS in disinformation, but
   none share specifics.  Does he know anymore about what kind of training
   was done?

   4. Is Obama a russian plant?

 --
 Sean Noonan
 ADP- Tactical Intelligence
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-03-29 21:49:22",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1636055_question-for-comrade-j-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
1642526,"[Fwd: Fw: Fwd: Re: Kalashnikov from Berlin]
","

------------------------------------------------------------------------
*From: * Lauren Goodrich <lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com>
*Date: *Wed, 26 Jan 2011 10:45:01 -0600
*To: *scott stewart<scott.stewart@stratfor.com>; Anya
Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>; Fred Burton<burton@stratfor.com>
*Subject: *Fwd: Re: Kalashnikov from Berlin

This was my last written correspondence with the Kalishnikovs. They have
called me once since, but cried on the phone (literally cried) about
having me tell George to get them to the US.

I'll keep this off the lists and just between us for now.
I have Fred's questions for them, but let me know if you have more.

Fred's questions:

What did they do for the FSB/KGB? 
Why now?
Do they think Comrade J was murdered? 



-------- Original Message --------
Subject: 	Re: Kalashnikov from Berlin
Date: 	Sun, 12 Dec 2010 22:43:15 +0100
From: 	Greta Garbo <garbogreta280@googlemail.com>
To: 	Lauren Goodrich <lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com>



Hi, Lauren,
 
We are both to stay and settle professionally, so any co-operation with
co-thinkers in the West would strengthen the scope of our activity and
positions.
 
Also we have a serious political - medical agenda here. The German
doctors found at both of us Mercury (56 and 53, 7 mg/l, while adoptable
is 1-2, dangerous limit is 3 mg/l). Police investigates case of
poisoning by the Russian authorities.
 
The Times, November 20, 2010, made a 2-page placement about us, tomorrow
issue of the German Focus magazine already came out also with a
big article (p 54-57). Media reaction in the English and German Internet
space is huge, you can easily follow it.
 
We have not our laptop at hand with the registered Skype account, and I
am trying to enter into Skype from the hotel computer, but fail.
Tomorrow we will have our laptop, but if you can call us on the
land-line 0049 30 880 02 0 through the reception, or mobile 0049 15 20
608 09 61 - we could talk out some things right now.
 
Victor could offer some ideas which Jeff evaluated as fresh and usable
views.
 
Regards,
 
Marina

2010/12/12 Lauren Goodrich <lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
<mailto:lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com>>

    Hello Marina and Victor,
    It is good to hear from you. Are you both in Berlin to stay?
    It would be good to speak with you.
    My skype is l-goodrich
    Sincerely,
    Lauren Goodrich


    On 12/11/10 3:45 PM, Greta Garbo wrote:
>     Hi, Lauren,
>      
>     We are currently in Berlin, follow the Stratfor bulletins on many
>     issues, but especially were captivated by that one delineating the
>     new Berlin's role, politics and opinion in Europe. Also Victor can
>     tell more on the Moscow military-foreign policy (Jeff Nyquist put
>     smth in Internet). It looks as if we could do something useful
>     from here. Let's talk about it.
>      
>     if we exchange Skp details we can also talk by Skp. my address is
>     mary.poters
>      
>     Regards,
>      
>     Marina, Victor Kalashnikov
>     `
>     0049 1520 6080961 mobile
>      
>     e-mail: victor.kalashnikov088@gmail.com
>     <mailto:victor.kalashnikov088@gmail.com>
>     e-mail: marptchk@gmail.com <mailto:marptchk@gmail.com>
>     e-mail: garbogreta280@googlemail.com
>     <mailto:garbogreta280@googlemail.com>
>      

    -- 

    Lauren Goodrich
    Senior Eurasia Analyst
    *STRATFOR
    *T: 512.744.4311
    F: 512.744.4334
    lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com <mailto:lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com>
    www.stratfor.com <http://www.stratfor.com/>
","2011-01-26 18:47:05",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1642526_-fwd-fw-fwd-re-kalashnikov-from-berlin-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","scott.stewart@stratfor.com,anya.alfano@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com,sean.noonan@stratfor.com",""
1643516,"Comrade J - update
","The details surrounding his death and his disclosures to an
investigative journalist have been classified SECRET for the next 25
years. 
","2011-05-27 16:05:35",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1643516_comrade-j-update-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
1644311,"Re: Pakistan Journalist Vanishes: Is the ISI Involved?
","   The most interesting aspect is the killing of a journalist.  Fine line
   between an investigative journalist and spy.   When you rattle around
   topics nobody wants aired, you pay the price.  Truth tellers always get
   shot.  Its much easier to lie or make up stories. 

   On 6/1/2011 8:46 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     http://www.amazon.com/Bloodmoney-Novel-Espionage-David-Ignatius/dp/0393078116/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1306935919&sr=8-1

     i don't think we're going anywhere with this SSS thing, though it is
     interesting. 
     On 6/1/11 8:41 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

       The poor bastard went down the rabbit hole and was neutralized. 

       ISI is fully infiltrated by sympathizers and operatives.  So, he was
       killed by ISI.  Will we find a smoking gun?  No.   Will anybody care
       about this dude?  Not really.  The Agency lost an asset.  Life goes
       on.  There is a reason the CIA set up unilateral operations in
       Pakistan. 

       Suggest everyone read David Ignatius new book on CIA NOC and front
       company operations in Pakistan.  Once again, he has gotten dead
       right. 

       On 6/1/2011 8:06 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         the question, though, is still who did it. 

         It means very different things if it is the ISI, the traditional
         military, or the jihadists.  Then a question of who within those
         groups can also mean different things. Not saying we can answer that
         very easily, but who specifically killed who (with the support of
         who) would explain if there is an issue or not.  Operating between
         the intelligence services and jihadists is a very, very dangerous
         place- so it's not all that surprising that these deaths occur.  And
         as tensions go up, so will those deaths.  But we would have to know
         the same people were involved in the deaths to really know what 'the
         issue' actually is. 
         On 6/1/11 7:59 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

           The issue is not the man himself (though I am personally spooked
           out because I knew him and we met not too long ago and he wrote on
           my fb wall a day before he went missing). Instead the issue is the
           growing number of deaths of people who have been supportive of
           jihadists. Recall KK and Col Imam and now Triple-S. The other
           thing is that each of these 3 people were with the ISI at one
           point. A former army chief confirmed to me that SSS was at one
           point on the payroll. Each of these guys had a falling out with
           the official ISI but maintained links deep within the service.
           These guys have also had ties to jihadists of one type while
           pissing off other more radical types.

           Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

           From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
           Date: Wed, 1 Jun 2011 07:51:53 -0500 (CDT)
           To: Sean Noonan<sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
           Cc: Secure List<secure@stratfor.com>
           Subject: Re: Pakistan Journalist Vanishes: Is the ISI Involved?
           http://www.plutobooks.com/display.asp?K=9780745331010&

           Note his May 20 book release.

           He was living on borrowed time operating in the belly of the
           beast.  His last interview is telling.  Regardless, he's dead. 
           Life on the edge. 

           On 6/1/2011 6:34 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             Did y'all read his most recent story?
             http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/ME27Df06.html

             These three stories are pretty good on his death and what was
             going on:
             http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-05-31/syed-saleem-shahzad-suspicions-fall-on-pakistans-isi-in-journalists-death/#
             http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/leading-journalist-murdered-by-pakistani-security-service-2291604.html
             http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2074800,00.html#ixzz1NxHaX4xA
             Just throwing ideas out here.  This is such a clusterfuck I
             don't know what to think. 

             His next was to be \"Next: Recruitment and training of militants
             \"  So who was doing the recruitment and training, huh? 
             If it's anything like the first half, it sounds like he's going
             to accuse someone in the Pakistani military.  Maybe they wanted
             to stop that?

             Excerpt of new book on AQ and friends.  Says the Mumbai plan was
             ISI's and a dude under Kashmiri at LeT carried it out:
             http://www.syedsaleemshahzad.com/2011/05/who-masterminded-mumbai-attack/

             It seems just as likely jihadists could go after him for
             exposing their location (or that they thought he exposed it). 
             The reports I've read through of 'torture' were really just that
             he had been hit in the face.  That's probably pretty typical of
             any militant or criminal outfit, and while the other reports of
             his ISI meetings were more peaceful, it wouldn't be that
             difficult for them to go that far either. 

             Here's his email to the HRW:
             http://asiancorrespondent.com/56321/saleem-shahzad-dead-another-one-bites-the-dust/

             For future reference:

             Meeting details as on October 17, 2010 at the ISI headquarters
             Islamabad between DG Media Wing ISI, Rear Admiral Adnan Nazir
             and Syed Saleem Shahzad, the Bureau Chief Pakistan for Asia
             Times Online (Hong Kong). Commodore Khalid Pervaiz, the Deputy
             Director General of Media Wing ISI was also present during the
             conversation.

             Agenda of the meeting: discussion on Asia Times Online story
             published on October 15, 2010, titled Pakistan frees Taliban
             commander (see
             http://atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/LJ16Df02.html).

             The meeting discussed the following issues.

             1-Syed Saleem Shahzad told Rear Admiral Adnan that an
             intelligence channel leaked the story. However, he added that
             story was published only after a confirmation from the most
             credible Taliban source. Syed also explained that DG ISPR was
             sent a text message about the story, but he did not respond.

             2- Rear Admiral Adnan Nazir had the view that story caused a lot
             of embracement for the country but observed that issuing a
             denial from the government side is no solution. He suggested
             Syed Saleem Shahzad should write a denial of the story.

             3- Syed Shahzad refused to comply with demand and termed it
             impractical.

             4-Rear Admiral Adnan was curious to know the source of the story
             as it is a shame that information would leak from the office of
             a high profile intelligence service.

             5- Syed Shahzad called it an intelligence leak but did not
             specify the source.

             6-The conversation was held in an extremely polite and friendly
             atmosphere and there was no mince word in the room at any stage.
             Rear Admiral Adnan Nazir also offered Syed Saleem Shahzad a
             favor in following words.

             \"I must give you a favor. We have recently arrested a terrorist
             and have recovered a lot of data, dairies and other material
             during the interrogation. The terrorist had a hit list with him.
             If I find your name in the list, I will certainly let you know,\"

             (end of email)

             On 5/31/11 7:56 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

               I'm sure the ISI extracted a confession of his CIA work before
               he died. There will be a leaked story about his double agent
               work and the Pakis rub the CIA's nose in it. Its what intel
               agencies do. Tit for tat. The world will soon forget him.
               Price one pays for playing the game.

               Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

               From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
               Date: Tue, 31 May 2011 19:36:07 -0500 (CDT)
               To: Reva Bhalla<bhalla@stratfor.com>; Kamran
               Bokhari<bokhari@stratfor.com>
               ReplyTo: bokhari@stratfor.com
               Cc: Secure List<secure@stratfor.com>; Fred
               Burton<burton@stratfor.com>
               Subject: Re: Pakistan Journalist Vanishes: Is the ISI
               Involved?
               Pretty big one. Domestic and int'l media shit-storm about how
               ISI brutally killed a journalist who uncovered ties between
               navy and aQ. The big thing now is aQ penetration of ISI.

               Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

               From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>
               Date: Tue, 31 May 2011 19:29:03 -0500 (CDT)
               To: <bokhari@stratfor.com>
               Cc: Secure List<secure@stratfor.com>; Fred
               Burton<burton@stratfor.com>
               Subject: Re: Pakistan Journalist Vanishes: Is the ISI
               Involved?
               is it that much of a crisis?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

               From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
               To: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>, \"Kamran Bokhari\"
               <bokhari@stratfor.com>
               Cc: \"Secure List\" <secure@stratfor.com>
               Sent: Tuesday, May 31, 2011 7:28:02 PM
               Subject: Re: Fwd: Pakistan Journalist Vanishes: Is the ISI
               Involved?

               Yes, he is dead. But the question is why create this new
               crisis when there are no shortages of crises.

               Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

               From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
               Date: Tue, 31 May 2011 19:18:28 -0500 (CDT)
               To: Kamran Bokhari<bokhari@stratfor.com>
               Cc: Secure List<secure@stratfor.com>
               Subject: Re: Fwd: Pakistan Journalist Vanishes: Is the ISI
               Involved?
               I'm not surprised.  Have we confirmed he's dead? 

               On 5/31/2011 7:16 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

                 Heard that the ISI agents who were \"interrogating\" him
                 didn't realize he had a heart condition and when they began
                 the thrashing the guy had a heart attack and died.
                 On 5/31/2011 2:17 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

                   A reasonable man would conclude that the chap was on the
                   CIA dole, but you did not hear that from me.  Payback is a
                   bitch. 

                   -------- Original Message --------

                   Subject: Pakistan Journalist Vanishes: Is the ISI          
                            Involved?                                         
                      Date: Tue, 31 May 2011 13:15:00 -0500                   
                      From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>                 
                        To: OS <os@stratfor.com>                              

 Fears are growing for the safety of a well-known Pakistani journalist
 who has been missing for 39 hours now and, according to an international
 advocacy group, is believed to be in the custody of Pakistan's
 controversial Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Human
 Rights Watch declared that Syed Saleem Shahzad, a reporter working for
 the Hong Kong-based Asia Times Online and Adnkronos International, the
 Italian news agency, could be subject to mistreatment and even torture
 while in custody.

 UPDATE: Pakistan's main news channels are reporting that Shahzad's dead
 body has been found. One news channel broadcast what appeared to be a
 black and white image of Shahzad's face. There were visible signs of
 torture..

 Read more:
 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2074800,00.html#ixzz1NxHaX4xA


             --

             Sean Noonan

             Tactical Analyst

             Office: +1 512-279-9479

             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

             www.stratfor.com

         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
","2011-06-01 15:50:16",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1644311_re-pakistan-journalist-vanishes-is-the-isi-involved-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","sean.noonan@stratfor.com,hoor.jangda@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
1644852,"INSIGHT - Guatemala - Elections in Guatemala
","Source Code: NONE
PUBLICATION: no
SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Head of Governance for Defense Firm in Europe
SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 4
SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION: Secure Only
SPECIAL HANDLING: Confidential - Please do not disseminate outside the 
Secure list
SOURCE HANDLER: Colby

in the context of the report on the presidential candidates family 
fleeing Peten - I maintain that the Coloms are collaborating with the 
Mexicans. They are from HueHue after all...
","2011-05-20 17:40:25",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1644852_insight-guatemala-elections-in-guatemala-.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
1646125,"Re: S3/* - US/MIL - Pentagon Alerts House, Senate Panels to New Classified
 WikiLeaks Release - CALENDAR
","   tactical nuke solves everything.

   On 11/24/2010 1:43 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     adam gadahn=terrorist.  see?

     On 11/24/10 1:41 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

       no cause normally they just rape goats

       On 11/24/10 1:39 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

         word.  i thought it went without saying rapist=terrorist. 

         On 11/24/10 1:38 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

           he also a rapist apparently

           fucking swedish terrorists rapists

           On 11/24/10 1:37 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             ok, now it's time to get rid of Assange, he wants to ruin
             thanksgiving weekend.  That equals terrorist in my book. 

             On 11/24/10 1:34 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

               Pentagon Alerts House, Senate Panels to New Classified
               WikiLeaks Release
               http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-24/pentagon-warns-house-senate-defense-panels-of-more-wikileaks-documents.html
               By Tony Capaccio - Nov 24, 2010 12:23 PM CT

               The Pentagon warned the U.S. Senate and House Armed Services
               Committees that the website WikiLeaks.org \"intends to release
               several hundred thousand\" classified U.S. State Department
               cables as soon as Nov. 26.

               The documents \"touch on an enormous range of very sensitive
               foreign policy issues,\" Assistant Secretary for Legislative
               Affairs Elizabeth King wrote yesterday in an e-mail to the
               defense panels.

               \"We anticipate that the release could negatively impact U.S.
               foreign relations,\" she wrote, telling committee staff members
               that \"we will brief you once we have a better understanding of
               what documents the WikiLeaks publication contains.\"

               King said The New York Times, the U.K.'s Guardian and Der
               Spiegel of Germany \"are each currently working with WikiLeaks
               to coordinate the release of these State Department
               documents.\"

               These three publications were given advance access to two
               earlier WikiLeaks releases of U.S. military documents: almost
               400,000 related to the Iraq war dated between 2003 and 2010
               and about 75,000 from the same period on the Afghanistan war.
               The Iraq documents were published on Oct. 22 and the
               Afghanistan documents on July 25.

               `Raw Observations'

               When the Iraq documents were released, a Pentagon spokesman,
               Marine Colonel David Lapan, described them as \"raw
               observations from the tactical level of combat operations\" and
               said their publication posed a risk to national security. In
               her e-mail to lawmakers yesterday, King had similar comments
               about the State Department documents.

               \"State Department cables by their nature contain everyday
               analysis and candid assessments that any government engages in
               as part of effective foreign relations,\" she wrote. \"The
               publication of this classified information by WikiLeaks is an
               irresponsible attempt to wreak havoc and destabilize global
               security. It potentially jeopardizes lives.\"

               Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman confirmed that the e-mails
               had been sent to the two committees.

               The Pentagon \"had indications for some time\" that WikiLeaks
               planned to release more documents, Whitman said in an
               interview yesterday. \"As a result, we felt we had a
               responsibility to notify key leaders with oversight
               responsibility of the department like we normally do,\" he
               said.

               State Department spokesman Philip J. Crowley said WikiLeaks
               has previously said that it plans to release additional
               classified documents.

               `Due Diligence'

               \"We are doing due diligence,\" Crowley said in an e-mail
               yesterday. The department is \"assessing the possible impact on
               our on-going diplomatic activity and notifying both Congress
               and other governments what may occur.\"

               Crowley told reporters today in a briefing that \"we're in
               touch with our posts around the world,\" which \"have begun the
               process of notifying governments that a release of documents
               is possible in the near future.\"

               The State Department has had similar conversations with
               members of Congress \"to let them know what we are prepared
               for,\" Crowley said.

               \"The kinds of cables that posts send to Washington are
               classified,\" he said. \"They involve discussions we've had with
               government officials, with private citizens. They contain
               analysis, they contain a record of the day-to-day diplomatic
               activity that our personnel undertake.\"

               WikiLeaks receives confidential material that governments and
               business want to keep secret and posts the information on the
               Internet.

             --

             Sean Noonan

             Tactical Analyst

             Office: +1 512-279-9479

             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

             www.stratfor.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


         --

         Sean Noonan

         Tactical Analyst

         Office: +1 512-279-9479

         Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
","2010-11-24 20:53:12",1,"2012-02-29 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1646125_re-s3-us-mil-pentagon-alerts-house-senate-panels-to-new.html","alex.posey@stratfor.com","","marko.papic@stratfor.com,bayless.parsley@stratfor.com,ben.west@stratfor.com,michael.wilson@stratfor.com,sean.noonan@stratfor.com,matthew.powers@stratfor.com",""
1648013,"Re: Anonymous Hack Brings Security Firm To Its Knees
","   The illegality of hacking aside, these guys asked for it.

   On 2/17/11 9:38 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

   Anonymous Hack Brings Security Firm To Its Knees
   <http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2011/02/16/13381=
 4783/how-anonymous-exacted-revenge-on-firm-that-threatened-to-out-them><=
 /a>




 http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2011/02/16/133814783/h=
 ow-anonymous-exacted-revenge-on-firm-that-threatened-to-out-them

 The hacktivist group Anonymous is at it again. This time, it has
 humiliated an Internet security firm that threatened to out the group's
 hierarchy.

 If you remember, Anonymous has been in the news, first, because in
 support of WikiLeaks, it undertook cyberattacks that brought down the
 websites of Visa and Mastercard. Second, because it brought down the
 sites of some government entities in Egypt and helped the
 anti-government protesters with technical help. Third, because as NPR's
 Martin Kaste reported, the FBI is hot on the group's heels
 <http://www.np=
 r.org/2011/02/10/133644850/FBI-Tracks-Internet-Activists-Known-As-Anonymous=
 >.
 (Kaste has more
 <http://www.npr.org/=
 2011/02/16/133811429/e-mails-hacked-by-anonymous-raise-concerns>
 on tonight's /All Things Considered/.)

 Today, the website ArsTechnica ran a piece
 =
 <http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2011/02/anonymous-speaks-the-in=
 side-story-of-the-hbgary-hack.ars/>
 that details how Anonymous methodically went after HBGary Federal's
 digital infrastructure. Earlier this month, HBGary Federal's CEO Aaron
 Barr said the company, which specializes in analyzing vulnerabilities in
 computer security for companies and even some government agencies, had
 undertaken an investigation of Anonymous and had used social media to
 unmask the group's most important people.

 /The Financial Times/ reported:

     Of a few hundred participants in operations, only about 30 are
     steadily active, with 10 people who \"are the most senior and
     co-ordinate and manage most of the decisions,\" Mr. Barr told the
     Financial Times. That team works together in private internet relay
     chat sessions, through e-mail and in Facebook groups. Mr Barr said
     he had collected information on the core leaders, including many of
     their real names, and that they could be arrested if law enforcement
     had the same data.

 Barr said an HBGary representative was set to give a presentation at a
 security conference in San Francisco, but as soon as Anonymous got wind
 of their plans, it hacked into HBGary's servers, rifled through their
 e-mails and published them to the web. The group defaced HBGary's
 website and published the user registration database of another site
 owned by Greg Hoglund, owner of HBGary.

 Amazingly, reports ArsTechnica, Anonymous managed all this by exploiting
 easy and everyday security flaws. First, it found that the content
 management system =97 a program that allows for easy publishing to the web
 =97 had a security vulnerability. The group was able to get into the
 usernames and passwords from the database and, as ArsTechnica puts it,
 HBGary employees did not follow Internet best practices and used the
 same passwords over and over on different sites including their e-mail
 accounts, Twitter and LinkedIn accounts.

 If you're interested in the details of the operation, ArsTechnica does a
 great job at putting it in easy-to-understand words. But perhaps one of
 the more interesting things the piece manages to cull is a profile of
 the people behind Anonymous.

 The popular characterization has been that it's a bunch of kids. But
 ArsTechnica, which spoke to Anonymous members, says that:

     Anonymous is a diverse bunch: though they tend to be younger rather
     than older, their age group spans decades. Some may still be in
     school, but many others are gainfully employed office-workers,
     software developers, or IT support technicians, among other things.
     With that diversity in age and experience comes a diversity of
     expertise and ability.

 As for HBGary, the attacks forced it to pull out of the RSA Security
 conference in San Francisco, the biggest of its kind. The company posted
 a sign outside its booth
 <ht=
 tp://www.zdnet.com/blog/security/hbgary-withdraws-from-rsa-after-embarrassi=
 ng-anonymous-hack/8181>
 with the same note that's on its website
 <http://www.hbgary.com/statement.htm>:

     A group of aggressive hackers known as \"Anonymous\" illegally broke
     into computer systems and stole proprietary and confidential
     information from HBGary, Inc. This breach was in violation of
     federal and state laws, and stolen information was publicly released
     without our consent.

     In addition to the data theft, HBGary individuals have received
     numerous threats of violence including threats at our tradeshow booth.

     In an effort to protect our employees, customers and the RSA
     Conference community, HBGary has decided to remove our booth and
     cancel all talks.

     HBGary is continuing to work intensely with law enforcement on this
     matter and hopes to bring those responsible to justice.

     Thank you to all of our employees, our customers and the security
     community for your continued support.

     HBGary, Inc.

 Forbes reports
 =
 <http://blogs.forbes.com/andygreenberg/2011/02/15/hbgary-execs-run-for-c=
 over-as-hacking-scandal-escalates/>
 that HBGary has become \"toxic,\" its clients and partners cutting ties.
 It reports that CEO Barr also canceled the talk at the B-Sides
 conference, which was supposed to be about Anonymous.



   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2011-02-17 16:44:21",1,"2012-03-06 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1648013_re-anonymous-hack-brings-security-firm-to-its-knees-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","tactical@stratfor.com",""
1649504,"Re: DISCUSSION- Russian spies update
","   Or more likely a ploy to criticize Putin/the Russians.=C2=A0 Trying to get
   out there that the spies were in fact dangerous--and they were, but this
   is more of a political thing.=C2=A0

   The more I think about it and look back at the chain of events, this makes
   sense to me.=C2=A0 Gertz and the China Threat, Gertz and t= he Russia
   Threat, etc.=C2=A0
   On 12/2/10 3:09 PM, Ben West wrote:

     I would lean more towards the opinion that the Gertz leak is a ploy,
     like Fred pointed out. If there really were an active
     counter-intelligence investigation going on within the NSA, I can't
     imagine anyone wanting to get it leaked out. I guess it's a question of
     how specific this probe is. If they've got a specific person they're
     looking into, they'd want to keep it on lock-down. If they are just
     monitoring for suspicious activity, then I don't see how this leak
     reveals anything that isn't normal, everyday security efforts at the
     NSA.

     On 12/2/2010 2:50 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       that makes much more sense.=C2=A0 Thanks.=C2=A0

       On 12/2/10 2:49 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

         Putin's interview was taped Tues & a few transcripts were
         circulating, so Gertz would have most likely seen it with nearly 2
         days to come up with something.

         On 12/2/10 2:40 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

           -Putin said last night that the \"deep-cover agents...who only
           become active during crises and when diplomatic ties are severed,
           when other forms of intelligence become ineffective or
           impossible.... their activity in no way undermined the interests
           of the United States.\"=C2=A0 We discussed last night how it seems
           he was covering for their mission.=C2=A0

           -Last night, just before Putin's interview Bill Gertz published an
           article that the NSA and DIA are investigating a possible
           infiltration orchestrated by one or more of the 10 russians.=C2=A0
           His source is a former intelligence official (presumably NSA, but
           not clear).=C2=A0 FBI is handling the CI investigation which means
           that they probably got some evidence from the spies or another
           outside source (My guess is NSA would handle this internally as
           long as it could).=C2=A0=

           -We haven't written on the information that came out in the last
           few weeks about Potoyev/Shcherbakov being the source for the
           intelligence that led to their capture.=C2=A0 These lea= ks could
           be a cover for something else, but it's also about time for us to
           correct/modify our point about Comrade J.=C2=A0 = In the very
           murky world of espionage, it's impossible to tell who exactly was
           responsible for fingering the investigation that came to light in
           May/June.=C2=A0

           Here's what we can say:
           The Gertz leak may be intentional to counter Putin's
           interview.=C2=A0 It also could be the truth, and it onl underlines
           that the Russians were no amateurs and were slowly working their
           way into US government and intelligence networks.=C2=A0 They work
           much differently than the West (or Bond/Bauer movies), so the fact
           they had no major pay-off at that point does not mean they
           couldn't be damaging.=C2=A0 Then there is George's important point
           from last night--that this group caught just as they were
           \"sequencing\" to a recruiting phase.=C2=A0 That could very well
           explain the timing, quick spy trade, and this current mole
           hunt.=C2=A0

           On 12/2/10 2:14 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

             I should have caught this in the morning.=C2=A0 This bit about
             NSA/DIA is very interesting and goes to George's argument last
             night.=C2=A0

             Also note theere is a ton of dirt in here on the Chinese and
             Manas in Kyrgyzstan, and some prediction for a new provocation
             by DPRK.

             We know Gertz has a bias and gets fed by certain people.=C2= =A0
             But that doens't mean this stuff is necessarily wrong.=C2=A0 =

             On 12/2/10 1:46 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

               Inside the Ring: Counterspies hunt Russian mole inside
               National Security Agency

               By Bill Gertz
               The Washington Times
               http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/dec/1/inside-the-rin=
               g-843880610/print/
               6:46 p.m., Wednesday, December 1, 2010

               The National Security Agency (NSA) is conducting a
               counterintelligence probe at its Fort Meade, Md., headquarters
               in a top-secret hunt for a Russian agent, according to a
               former intelligence official close to the agency.

               The former official said the probe grew out of the case of 10
               Russian \"illegals,\" or deep-cover spies, who were uncovered
               last summer and sent back to Moscow after the defection of
               Col. Alexander Poteyev, a former SVR foreign intelligence
               officer who reportedly fled to the U.S. shortly before Russian
               President Dmitry Medvedev visited here in June.

               Col. Poteyev is believed to be the source who disclosed the
               U.S.-based agent network.

               NSA counterintelligence officials suspect that members of the
               illegals network were used by Russia's SVR spy agency to
               communicate with one or more agents inside the agency, which
               conducts electronic intelligence gathering and code-breaking.

               One sign that the probe is fairly advanced is that FBI
               counterintelligence agents are involved in the search.

               \"They are looking for one or more Russian spies that NSA is
               convinced reside at Fort Meade and possibly other DoD intel
               offices, like DIA [Defense Intelligence Agency],\" the former
               official said. \"NSA is convinced that at least one is at NSA.\"

               Some of the 10 illegals who were posing as U.S. citizens
               helped service Russian agents working inside the U.S.
               intelligence community, the former official said.

               No other details of the investigation could be learned.

               NSA spokeswoman Vanee Vines said in e-mail: \"I don't have any
               information to provide regarding your query.\"

               An FBI spokesman had no immediate comment.

               NSA has been the victim of several damaging spy cases dating
               back to the 1960s, when two officials defected to the Soviet
               Union.

               In 1985, NSA analyst Ronald Pelton was caught spying for
               Moscow. He had provided the Soviets with extremely damaging
               secrets, including details of an underwater electronic
               eavesdropping program on Russian military cables called
               \"Operation Ivy Bells.\"

               China in Kyrgyzstan

               A confidential State Department cable made public this week
               highlights China's role in the U.S.-led war on terrorism.

               The U.S. ambassador in far-off Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, confronted
               China's ambassador about a covert attempt by Beijing to bribe
               the government there to shut down the strategic U.S. military
               transit base at Manas in exchange for $3 billion in cash.

               The Feb. 13, 2009, cable signed by Ambassador Tatiana C.
               Gfoeller revealed that Chinese Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Zhang
               Yannian \"did not deny categorically\" the covert cash offer to
               close the base, which is a major transit and refueling point
               for U.S. troops and supplies heading into northern
               Afghanistan.

               \"After opening pleasantries, the ambassador mentioned that
               Kyrgyz officials had told her that China had offered a $3
               billion financial package to close Manas Air Base and asked
               for the ambassador's reaction to such an allegation,\" the
               cable stated.<= br>
               \"Visibly flustered, Zhang temporarily lost the ability to
               speak Russian and began spluttering in Chinese to the silent
               aide diligently taking notes right behind him. Once he had
               recovered the power of Russian speech, he inveighed against
               such a calumny, claiming that such an idea was impossible,
               China was a staunch opponent of terrorism, and China's
               attitude toward Kyrgyzstan's decision to close Manas was one
               of 'respect and understanding.' \"

               The cable highlights what observers say has been China's
               behind-the-scenes, anti-U.S. strategy of seeking to undermine
               U.S. global counterterrorism efforts.

               Mr. Zhang insisted that China's interest in Kyrgyzstan, which
               shares a border with China's restive Xinjiang province, is
               purely commercial. He then said China rejected calls by \"some
               Kyrgyz\" for China to set up a military base there to
               counterbalance Russian and U.S. influence.

               \"We want no military or political advantage. Therefore, we
               wouldn't pay $3 billion for Manas,\" Mr. Zhang was quoted as
               saying.

               Chinese intelligence personnel, however, are another story,
               according to U.S. officials who have said Beijing's
               intelligence presence is very large in the country.

               Mr. Zhang advised the U.S. ambassador on how to keep the base.
               \"Just give them $150 million in cash [per year, and] you will
               have the base,\" he said.

               The Chinese official also said several times during the
               meeting that a \"revolution in China\" is possible if the
               economy failed to improve and millions remain unemployed.

               \"In our experience, talk of revolution at home is taboo for
               Chinese,\" the cable said.

               However, observers have noted that Chinese diplomats used
               similar language in meetings with U.S. officials as scare
               tactics, warning of a coming Chinese collapse as a way to
               stave off political pressure for democratic change.
               Braced for attack

               Amid high tensions, U.S. and allied militaries are braced for
               another North Korean attack - more artillery shelling, missile
               test launches or possibly another underground nuclear blast.

               The next incident is expected in coming days after U.S.-South
               Korean joint naval exercises in the Yellow Sea that ended on
               Wednesday, said intelligence sources familiar with the region.

               North Korean military forces remain on heightened alert, as do
               South Korean forces, and the sources said the South Korean
               military is set to counter any further artillery strikes.

               One possible target being watched closely is the northernmost
               of South Korea's five northwest islands, called Baengnyeong
               Island, a major intelligence base that has been a safe harbor
               for North Korean defectors fleeing the communist state in the
               past.

               South Korea's military is prepared to carry out aggressive
               counterattacks against any new strikes.

               Intelligence analysis of the Nov. 23 artillery attack on
               Yeonpyeong Island, which killed four people and wounded 17,
               indicates that the surprise bombardment is connected to the
               ongoing leadership succession of Kim Jong-il's third son, Kim
               Jong-un, as well as to the recent disclosure by the North
               Koreans of a covert uranium-enrichment program.

               Kim Jong-un was recently promoted and has aligned himself with
               North Korean generals involved in artillery forces, according
               to the intelligence sources. Reports from North Korea
               indicated that both Kims visited the 4th Corps, whose unit
               carried out an artillery barrage before the Yeonpyeong attack.

               Gay training

               The Pentagon working group on open gays in the military sets
               out an ambitious training program to ensure that troops treat
               their colleagues, gay or straight, with dignity.

               The group, led by Army Gen. Carter Ham and Pentagon General
               Counsel Jeh Johnson, appears to shy away from what some might
               call \"sensitively training.\"

               The report's implementation plan states that \"service members
               are not expected to change their personal religious or moral
               beliefs; however, they are expected to treat all others with
               dignity and respect, consistent with the core values that
               already exist within each service.\"

               But objections to homosexuality are not grounds to request a
               transfer, reports special correspondent Rowan Scarborough.

               Says the report: Service \"members do not have the right to
               refuse duty or duty assignments based on a moral objection to
               another's sexual orientation. Service members remain obligated
               to follow orders that involve interaction with others who are
               gay or lesbian, even if an unwillingness to do so is based on
               strong, sincerely held, moral or religious beliefs.\"

               And it states that \"harassment or abuse based on sexual
               orientation is unacceptable. All service members are to treat
               one another with dignity and respect regardless of sexual
               orientation.\"

               Gay survey

               While the Pentagon working group concluded the negative impact
               on the force would be \"low\" if gays serve openly, its survey
               results present a different story.

               Republicans likely will cite some of these numbers in arguing
               in the Senate, where a vote on repeal is pending, that now is
               not the time to end the \"don't ask, don't tell\" policy, as two
               wars are being fought.

               The most striking number is that nearly 60 percent of combat
               soldiers and Marines believe open gays will hurt unit
               readiness.

               There are other similar findings, reports special
               correspondent Mr. Scarborough.

               Of respondents who said they served under a leader they
               believed to be gay, 46 percent said it had a \"mostly negative\"
               effect on the unit's performance. Only 8 percent termed it
               \"mostly positive.\"

               Of all troops asked how repeal will affect their future, 23
               percent said they will either leave the military sooner than
               planned or think about leaving. For Marines, the percentage
               was nearly 40 percent.

               If the figures are accurate, repeal would result in a surge of
               troop departures and leave the military scrambling to fill the
               ranks.

               A quarter of those surveyed also said they would shower at a
               different time if someone they believed to be gay were using
               the facility.

               Gay-rights advocates cite the survey's most publicized result:
               Seventy percent of all troops - support and combat - say
               repeal will have a positive, mixed or no effect on the force.

               =C2=A9 Copyright 2010 The Washington Times, LLC. Click he= re
               for reprint permission.
               --

               Sean Noonan

               Tactical Analyst

               Office: +1 512-279-9479

               Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

               Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

               www.stratfor.com=

             --

             Sean Noonan

             Tactical Analyst

             Office: +1 512-279-9479

             Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

             Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

             www.stratfor.com</= p>

           --

           Sean Noonan

           Tactical Analyst

           Office: +1 512-279-9479

           Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

           Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

           www.stratfor.com

         --
         Lauren Goodrich
         Senior Eurasia Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: 512.744.4311
         F: 512.744.4334
         lauren.goo= drich@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com</= font>

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

 --=20
 Ben West
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin, TX

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-02 22:19:01",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1649504_re-discussion-russian-spies-update-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1651527,"Re: FOR FAST COMMENT and EDIT- CAT 3- Tretyakov dead
","   And this - from the article by Comrade J's author - would seem to confirm
   Lauren's thoughts:

   That autopsy has now been completed and it showed no evidence of foul
   play, according to an FBI official who spoke to me off-the-record. Helen
   said her husband died from massive cardiac arrest.

   Lauren Goodrich wrote:

     But it is a source who said they're connected... not proven, right? I am
     REALLY wary to say they were connected until I see the intel.
     Also, he was 53.... Russian age of death.
     Sean Noonan wrote:

       He died two weeks before the FBI made their arrests, and about a week
       before they put undercover operations in place to make some of them. 
       The two are related.  Whether it was because the FBI has evidence of a
       Russian operation, or they were suspicious enough to 'shake the trees'
       and have bungled the whole thing, we don't know. 

       I will make this more clear in Edit. 

       Rodger Baker wrote:

         So what are we saying with this piece? that someone we knew was dead
         is dead, it happened before these arrests. Are we trying to suggest
         he was murdered? are we trying to say his death led to the arrests
         (and if so, why?)? I am not sure the purpose of what this piece is
         trying to say. What is the significance of teh death of an old
         defector a month ago?
         On Jul 9, 2010, at 9:41 AM, scott stewart wrote:

           when? why didn't we publish it then?
            
           --We were asked not to by our sources in the government.
            
           From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On
           Behalf Of Karen Hooper
           Sent: Friday, July 09, 2010 10:36 AM
           To: analysts@stratfor.com
           Subject: Re: FOR FAST COMMENT and EDIT- CAT 3- Tretyakov dead
            

           On 7/9/10 10:26 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:
           Tactical Team production.  

           Summary

           Sergei Tretyakov,  a former high level Russian intelligence
           officer who defected to the United States, was announced dead by
           Washington's WTOP Radio, July 9.  Tretyakov died on June 13, days
           before the arrest of 10 alleged Russian spies, fueling suspicion
           that the two events are somehow connected.  His wife, however, has
           said he died of natural causes.  

           Analysis

           In STRATFOR's <Security and Intelligence Weekly published June 30,
           2010http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100630_dismantling_suspected_russian_intelligence_operation>,
           we raised the connection between the initiation of the
           investigation of the eleven individuals accused of acting as
           unregistered agents of a foreign government  and a former Russian
           Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) defector, Sergei Tretyakov.
           Tretyakov worked publicly as a first secretary in Russia's UN
           mission in New York but was in fact a Colonel in Russian's Foreign
           Intelligence Service (SVR). He is known to have passed information
           to the FBI from 1997 until the time he officially defected to the
           US in October, 2000. According to the criminal complaints issued
           June 25, surveillance of some of the individuals began in January,
           2000. It is important to note that while this connection is
           circumstantial - Tretyakov was in a high level position at the SVR
           at the same time. This connection does not confirm that Tretyakov
           indeed outed the accused individuals, but it is possible that
           Tretyakov was aware of some, if not all, of the alleged Russian
           agents' role in the United States and may have passed along this
           information to U.S. intelligence officials. Generally, \"illegals\",
           as these 11 agents are called, would be run out of a different
           department of the SVR as Tretyakov.  Just as well, seven of them
           were allegedly run through SVR officers at the UN Mission, and
           those officers Tretyakov would have had knowledge of.  

           After every well-known Russian intelligence defector except
           Tretyakov was quoted in the media on the Russian spy case,
           we when? why didn't we publish it then? dug further into public
           records searches of Sergei Tretyakov and found that his records
           state that he died June 13, 2010. Sarasota County Clerk's office
           lists a death certificate filed under the name of Sergei Tretyakov
           on June 25, 2010. No cause of death is immediately available from
           those records. Tretyakov was 53 years old. 

           The first public confirmation of Tretyakov's death came through
           WTOP from Tretyakov's wife, Yelena (Helen). She told reporter JJ
           Green, who interviewed Sergei in the spring of 2010, that he died
           of natural causes. It is very significant that there was no major
           media coverage of Tretyakov's death until today, when a <US-Russia
           spy swap is being completed>
           [LINK: http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100708_russia_us_possible_spy_swap].
           Tretyakov was a high profile defector. A book telling his story of
           working for the Russian intelligence agency and defecting to the
           US was published in January, 2008. He has appeared on numerous
           national news shows and has spoken very candidly on Russia's
           intelligence apparatus and claims that Russia is still very much a
           hostile enemy of the US. 

           His apparent death also comes just two weeks before the FBI
           arrested ten individuals accused of acting as unregistered agents
           of a foreign government - in this case, Russia. The eleventh
           individual, Robert Christopher Mestos, was arrested in Cyprus June
           29, but he arrived in Cyprus June 17, just four days after the
           apparent death of Tretyakov.

           So far, we can only raise curious connections and point out that
           the timing of all of this is highly interesting. Simply the fact
           that it appears that Tretyakov is dead is extremely newsworthy in
           itself [newsworthy perhaps, but is it significant, and why from a
           Stratfor point of view outside a sitrep?]. The connections
           outlined here do not prove anything, but they are important to
           keep in mind as we continue our investigation into the 11 accused
           non-declared agents arrested June 27 and 29. 

           So far there is no indication rephrase, since his wife said
           natural causes. i'd say 'proof' or evidence for how he died of how
           Tretyakov died.  He was 53 years oldyou said that above and,
           according to the book Comrade J, he did have high blood pressure,
           it is perfectly feasible that he died innocently due to health
           complications. However, the fact that Tretyakov was a high profile
           Russian intelligence defector means that nothing can be taken for
           granted in this case. Russian defectors and dissidents have a
           history of turning up dead, often under very auspicious
           [auspicious?] circumstances.  Below is a list of previous
           defectors and dissidents who have died unusual deaths abroad:
           o     Oleg Gordievsky claims he survived an attempted poisoning
           with Thallium in London in November, 2007. He was a KGB officer in
           London but spied for the UK from 1968-1985. 
           o     Alexander Litvinenko died November 2006 from polonium 210
           poisoning in the UK. He was granted asylum in the UK after he
           claims that the FSB ordered him to kill a Russian oligarch. He
           published a book telling his story in 2002.
           o     Viktor Yuschenko, a pro-western former Ukrainian president,
           claims to have survived an alleged dioxin poisoning attempt while
           running for president in September, 2004.
           o     Yuri Shchekochikhin, a member of the Russian duma, died days
           before going to talk to the FBI in July, 2003. Suspected use of
           polonium 210

           At this point, we have no evidence that Tretyakov was
           murdered getting a little repetitive, we can only provide context
           within which his death occurred. It will require medical testing
           and investigation to determine the nature of Tretyakov's death and
           whether or not it was caused by foul play. 

           These claims which claims? are all made by Russian defectors, and
           of course have not been confirmed by Moscow.  At this point, we
           cannot conclude anything similar happened to Tretyakov, especially
           since his wife has said he died from natural causes.  This is
           completely plausible, but the chain of events is
           suspicious.  repetition

 --

 Sean Noonan

 Tactical Analyst

 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

 www.stratfor.com

  

            
           -- 
           Karen Hooper
           Director of Operations
           512.744.4300 ext. 4103
           STRATFOR
           www.stratfor.com

 --
 Sean Noonan
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 www.stratfor.com

  

     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
","2010-07-09 17:18:53",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1651527_re-for-fast-comment-and-edit-cat-3-tretyakov-dead-.html","eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1654237,"US/CT- Wikileaks Cyber Battle: Anatomy of a Hack Attack
","   Wikileaks Cyber Battle: Anatomy of a Hack Attack
   How Hackers Used 'Low Orbit Ion Cannon' to Take Down Mastercard, Visa,
   Paypal
   http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wikileaks-anonymous-cyber-attacks/story?id=12355960&tqkw=&tqshow=GMA
   By DEVIN DWYER
   Dec. 10, 2010

   \"Connect your LOICs to the Hive. Attack will start soon.\"

   With that simple call to action, and dozens like it sent out on Twitter,
   Facebook and message boards, a scrappy, decentralized coalition of
   computer users is waging an international \"cyberwar\" against U.S.
   companies that have severed ties to the controversial website WikiLeaks.

   Over the past few days, the group, known as \"Anonymous,\" has successfully
   knocked corporate websites for MasterCard, Visa and Paypal offline. There
   are also signs that it was behind attacks on Swedish government websites
   and those tied to Sarah Palin and Sen. Joe Lieberman.

   But what's most surprising about \"Operation Payback,\" cyber security
   experts say, is the simplicity of its approach to wreaking havoc on the
   web.

   The massive hack attack appears to have been orchestrated by a handful of
   organizers with control over a virtual army of tens of thousands of
   computers. The networks -- known as botnets -- can inundate their targets
   with denial of service attacks, overwhelming a site's server so that
   regular customers can't get through.

   Security experts reached by ABC News estimated that several thousand
   computer users have voluntarily dedicated their machines to the campaign,
   downloading attack software, installing it on their computers and
   connecting to a central server, called a HiveMind.

   Anonymous has posted online step-by-step instructions for download,
   telling participants that after installing the software they simply \"sit
   back and enjoy!\"

   Then, masterminds of the HiveMind input the IP address of their desired
   target, and all the affiliated computers running the special software
   begin bombarding the site.

   \"Remember: current target is api.paypal.com, port 443. We are currently
   FIRING!\" one of the HiveMind organizers posted under the Twitter handle
   AnonOpsNet late Thursday.

   The software, a simple Windows application called Low Orbit Ion Cannon, or
   LOIC, was developed decades ago to test the ability of a website to handle
   traffic. Because it's open source, meaning its code is publicly available,
   it is also easily shared and manipulated.

   \"This program just goes and grabs data on the target website at a high
   rate, in effect having no pause in your viewing of a webpage,\" said
   Barrett Lyon, an Internet security expert who created the first denial of
   service defense company in 2004 and has analyzed the ongoing cyberwar.
   \"It's basically just blasting the website using all the resources of the
   user.\"

   But the attacks don't appear to be meant to do more than create a show,
   Lyon said, noting the hackers don't seem to be seeking confidential
   company or consumer information, like credit card account numbers.

   In their manifesto posted online Thursday, Anonymous says it does not
   intend to attack the \"critical infrastructure\" of sites like Visa and
   MasterCard, but instead to disrupt their corporate websites. \"Anonymous
   does not seek to disturb the public peace nor the average internet
   citizen; for average internet citizens are most of us who are Anonymous\",
   the statement says.

  Only 1,000 Computers to Take Down Visa

   An Australian man who claims to be one of the organizers running the
   HiveMind told the Sydney Morning Herald it took only 800 computers to take
   down MasterCard, and 1,000 to take down Visa.

   But some security experts say the effort is almost certainly aided by
   collections of tens of thousands of other computers, involuntarily and
   unknowingly participating in the campaign at the direction of a master
   computer.

   \"The truth is the actual attack is not coming from those few individuals,\"
   said Peter Schlampp, a cyber security expert with Solera Networks.
   \"They're commanding an extremely broad network of.... computers being
   controlled by whatever the puppetmaster wants them to do.\"

   These secret networks, or botnets, are common, and are often amassed
   through viruses and worms without a computer user even knowing it.

   \"The infected computers can be told remotely to go do something: Send out
   spam, send out bad traffic. They can even be told to attack the Pentagon
   and steal data. They're robots,\" said Alan Paller, director of research at
   SANS Institution for Computer Security and Training.

   Paller said there are millions of computers available to would-be cyber
   attackers via botnets, making it difficult for law enforcement agencies to
   root out the threat completely. But, he added, officials can often track
   down individuals behind the botnet controls.

   Dutch National Police arrested a 16-year-old boy Wednesday in connection
   with the hack attacks, a spokesperson for the Dutch National Prosecutors
   Office told ABC News. The teen, he said, had confessed to involvement in
   the attacks on MasterCard and Visa's websites.

   But the botnets will live on.

   \"Botnets wax and wane over time, but don't go away,\" said Schampp. \"The
   only way to kill a botnet is for all the PCs to have updated antivirus and
   antimalware software or to shut down the computers.\"

   In the current battle, Paller said, resolution may more likely come
   through more cyberattacks -- from the other side.

   \"What will happen is that there are enough angry people on the side that
   doesn't like what Wikileaks did that are going to be vigilantes too.
   That's already started, he said. \"They're attacking back.\"

   ABC News' Zunaira Zaki contributed to this report.

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-10 14:03:46",1,"2012-03-06 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1654237_us-ct-wikileaks-cyber-battle-anatomy-of-a-hack-attack-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","os@stratfor.com",""
1657261,"Re: Assange is off the hook...
","   No I meant the regular people are not mad about it. Assange wanted the
   common folk to rise up against the insidious and evil diplomats. That has
   not happened. In fact, most are defending our diplomats.

   People are mad, but at Assange... not at the U.S. government.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Matthew Gertken\" <matt.gertken@stratfor.com>
   To: analysts@stratfor.com
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:40:08 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   Agree, the ego-trip and the anti-Americanism are extremely irritating. But
   not sure it is true about people in the US being mad about the cables --
   Gingrich called it terrorism, the Fox people are have been talking it up
   big time, including WSJ which has contained some more insightful but still
   rather alarmist responses to it. 

   As to the part about going after Russian info. The Chinese press has
   raised the issue of other countries being targeted next, and even went so
   far as to say that the entire scandal is a US conspiracy that will be used
   against other states. The interesting thing about this to me is the fear
   of exposure that has gone to all governments over the implications of this
   type of web dissemination for leaks. Closed govts like china see real
   danger here, as elsewhere with internet evolution. They are familiar with
   how new info dissemination patterns, however innocuous they seem when
   originated in the West, end up posing threats to their control (like
   twitter for instance)

   On 12/5/10 10:23 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     What a douche.

     And I just want to be clear here... I have no problem with the leaks. I
     think they're great. And I think it may be good on some level to have
     stuff like this come out once in a while. What I can't stand is A) his
     ego trip and B) his clear anti-Americanism. Take the time to read the
     intro to Cablegate when you get the chance. This guy hates America more
     than OBL.

     What I love, however, is how nobody in the U.S. is mad about the cables.
     Hell, I have a better opinion of State Department diplomats now than I
     did before the cables. They actually said a few smart things here and
     there. I actually gave them a tip of my hat.

     I want to see him try to take on the Russians. He'd be going bald in an
     Iceland hospital within days.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:11:39 PM
     Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

     should we change our Stratfor motto now?
     Predictive, insightful intelligence...in a post-Cablegate world.
     On Dec 5, 2010, at 10:05 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

       This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: a**I believe
      geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases.a**

       Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer
       saying how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files --
       including names of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has a**been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information
      age.a**

       Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
       extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
       password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly
       endangering U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would
       it not then be possible to prosecute him for espionage? 

       -- 
       - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
       Marko Papic
       Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
       STRATFOR
       700 Lavaca Street - 900
       Austin, Texas
       78701 USA
       P: + 1-512-744-4094
       marko.papic@stratfor.com

     --
     Marko Papic

     STRATFOR Analyst
     C: + 1-512-905-3091
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

 --
 Matthew Gertken
 Asia Pacific Analyst
 Office 512.744.4085
 Mobile 512.547.0868
 STRATFOR
 www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-12-06 05:56:29",1,"2012-02-29 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1657261_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1657727,"Re: Assange is off the hook...
","   Is it possible to revoke some one's citizenship on the grounds of them
   being a total dickhead? 
   I don't care about the other leaks but the ones he has made that
   potentially damage Australian interests upset me. 
   If I thought I could switch this dickhead off without getting done I don't
   think I'd have too much of a problem.
   BTW, close family friend in Sweden who knows the girl that is pressing
   charges tells me that there is absolutely nothing behind it other than
   prosecutors that are looking to make a name for themselves. My friend
   speaks rather disparagingly about the girl who is claiming molestation. I
   also think the whole rape thing is incorrect for if I remember correctly
   rape was never the charge. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:23:03 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   What a douche.

   And I just want to be clear here... I have no problem with the leaks. I
   think they're great. And I think it may be good on some level to have
   stuff like this come out once in a while. What I can't stand is A) his ego
   trip and B) his clear anti-Americanism. Take the time to read the intro to
   Cablegate when you get the chance. This guy hates America more than OBL.

   What I love, however, is how nobody in the U.S. is mad about the cables.
   Hell, I have a better opinion of State Department diplomats now than I did
   before the cables. They actually said a few smart things here and there. I
   actually gave them a tip of my hat.

   I want to see him try to take on the Russians. He'd be going bald in an
   Iceland hospital within days.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:11:39 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   should we change our Stratfor motto now?
   Predictive, insightful intelligence...in a post-Cablegate world.
   On Dec 5, 2010, at 10:05 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: a**I believe
      geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases.a**

     Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer saying
     how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files -- including
     names of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has a**been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information
      age.a**

     Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
     extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
     password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly
     endangering U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would it
     not then be possible to prosecute him for espionage? 

     -- 
     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
     Marko Papic
     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
     STRATFOR
     700 Lavaca Street - 900
     Austin, Texas
     78701 USA
     P: + 1-512-744-4094
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-06 05:42:16",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1657727_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html","chris.farnham@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1660708,"Random Business Idea - Network Security
","   I'm sure this has been thought of before at STRATFOR so excuse the
   redundancy. I was reading a solid Forbes article on Assange and it said
   that a large number of deep pocket corporations were looking into
   leak-focused network security after these Wikileak episodes.

   I was wondering if it was possible for us to get some of that
   \"leak-focused\" gravy train. This is an obvious fear sale, so that's a good
   thing. And we have something to offer that the IT security companies
   don't, mainly our focus on counter-intelligence and surveillance that Fred
   and Stick know better than anyone on the planet.

   We do a lot of good work with all the personal/executive security analysis
   as well. Could we develop some ideas and procedures on the idea of
   \"leak-focused\" network security that focuses on preventing one's own
   employees from leaking sensitive information.

   The point here is that I am sure there are certain procedures and
   precautions that companies should employ that go beyond installing network
   security network to deal with potential leaks. In fact, Im not so sure
   this is an IT problem that requires an IT solution.

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-29 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1660708_random-business-idea-network-security-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com,Don.kuykendall@stratfor.com,grant.perry@stratfor.com",""
1660854,"OBL take -- quick response needed
","I can get access to the materials seized from the OBL safe house. 

What are the top (not 45) questions we want addressed? 
","2011-05-12 22:25:38",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1660854_obl-take-quick-response-needed-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
1661172,"Fwd: Re: US 'to view major cyber attacks as acts of war'
","   from a source on this...

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Re: US 'to view major cyber attacks as acts of war' 
      Date: Wed, 01 Jun 2011 07:44:52 -0400                     
      From: Veni Markovski <veni@veni.com>                      
        To: Nate Hughes <hughes@stratfor.com>                   

 Nate,
 this is sooo old, that even I (though it's not a good idea to quote
 myself) wrote about it in 1998, in the Bulgarian Military Journal
 magazine (issue 5 for 1998). The article is here:
 http://www.veni.com/pastwork/voenen_zhurnal.html

 That's not a new doctrine, it is very old, there are a number of studies
 (I just re-read my article, and there are references to resolutions of
 the UN, dealing with military responses, etc.), so what comes these days
 as a news, is not a real news. It sounds fancy right now, but I doubt
 that the Pentagon will actually engage the US in real military actions
 (because, if the US responds with conventional weapons, then under the
 current international conventions, it might be considered an aggressor -
 which is not the goal of the US, one could guess).

 Plus, of course, the fact that unlike a conventional war / aggression,
 it will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to prove state
 engagement.

 Best,
 veni

 On 5/31/2011 18:13, Nate Hughes wrote:
 > Veni,
 >
 > We've been discussing this internally today. What do you make of it?
 > Any word about what the actual public statement is expected to look
 > like? We always appreciate your insight.
 >
 > Hope all is well.
 >
 > Cheers,
 >
 > Nate
 >
 >> *Cyber Combat: Act of War
 >> Pentagon Sets Stage for U.S. to Respond to Computer Sabotage With
 >> Military Force*
 >>     MAY 31, 2011
 >> http://online.wsj.com/article
 >> /SB10001424052702304563104576355623135782718.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
 >> By SIOBHAN GORMAN And JULIAN E. BARNES
 >>
 >> WASHINGTON-The Pentagon has concluded that computer sabotage coming
 >> from another country can constitute an act of war, a finding that for
 >> the first time opens the door for the U.S. to respond using
 >> traditional military force.
 >>
 >> The Pentagon's first formal cyber strategy, unclassified portions of
 >> which are expected to become public next month, represents an early
 >> attempt to grapple with a changing world in which a hacker could pose
 >> as significant a threat to U.S. nuclear reactors, subways or
 >> pipelines as a hostile country's military.
 >>
 >> In part, the Pentagon intends its plan as a warning to potential
 >> adversaries of the consequences of attacking the U.S. in this way.
 >> \"If you shut down our power grid, maybe we will put a missile down
 >> one of your smokestacks,\" said a military official.
 >>
 >> Recent attacks on the Pentagon's own systems-as well as the
 >> sabotaging of Iran's nuclear program via the Stuxnet computer
 >> worm-have given new urgency to U.S. efforts to develop a more
 >> formalized approach to cyber attacks. A key moment occurred in 2008,
 >> when at least one U.S. military computer system was penetrated. This
 >> weekend Lockheed Martin, a major military contractor, acknowledged
 >> that it had been the victim of an infiltration, while playing down
 >> its impact.
 >>
 >> The report will also spark a debate over a range of sensitive issues
 >> the Pentagon left unaddressed, including whether the U.S. can ever be
 >> certain about an attack's origin, and how to define when computer
 >> sabotage is serious enough to constitute an act of war. These
 >> questions have already been a topic of dispute within the military.
 >>
 >> One idea gaining momentum at the Pentagon is the notion of
 >> \"equivalence.\" If a cyber attack produces the death, damage,
 >> destruction or high-level disruption that a traditional military
 >> attack would cause, then it would be a candidate for a \"use of force\"
 >> consideration, which could merit retaliation.
 >> The War on Cyber Attacks
 >>
 >> Attacks of varying severity have rattled nations in recent years.
 >>
 >> June 2009: First version of Stuxnet virus starts spreading,
 >> eventually sabotaging Iran's nuclear program. Some experts suspect it
 >> was an Israeli attempt, possibly with American help.
 >>
 >> November 2008: A computer virus believed to have originated in Russia
 >> succeeds in penetrating at least one classified U.S. military
 >> computer network.
 >>
 >> August 2008: Online attack on websites of Georgian government
 >> agencies and financial institutions at start of brief war between
 >> Russia and Georgia.
 >>
 >> May 2007: Attack on Estonian banking and government websites occurs
 >> that is similar to the later one in Georgia but has greater impact
 >> because Estonia is more dependent on online banking.
 >>
 >> The Pentagon's document runs about 30 pages in its classified version
 >> and 12 pages in the unclassified one. It concludes that the Laws of
 >> Armed Conflict-derived from various treaties and customs that, over
 >> the years, have come to guide the conduct of war and proportionality
 >> of response-apply in cyberspace as in traditional warfare, according
 >> to three defense officials who have read the document. The document
 >> goes on to describe the Defense Department's dependence on
 >> information technology and why it must forge partnerships with other
 >> nations and private industry to protect infrastructure.
 >>
 >> The strategy will also state the importance of synchronizing U.S.
 >> cyber-war doctrine with that of its allies, and will set out
 >> principles for new security policies. The North Atlantic Treaty
 >> Organization took an initial step last year when it decided that, in
 >> the event of a cyber attack on an ally, it would convene a group to
 >> \"consult together\" on the attacks, but they wouldn't be required to
 >> help each other respond. The group hasn't yet met to confer on a
 >> cyber incident.
 >>
 >> Pentagon officials believe the most-sophisticated computer attacks
 >> require the resources of a government. For instance, the weapons used
 >> in a major technological assault, such as taking down a power grid,
 >> would likely have been developed with state support, Pentagon
 >> officials say.
 >>
 >> The move to formalize the Pentagon's thinking was borne of the
 >> military's realization the U.S. has been slow to build up defenses
 >> against these kinds of attacks, even as civilian and military
 >> infrastructure has grown more dependent on the Internet. The military
 >> established a new command last year, headed by the director of the
 >> National Security Agency, to consolidate military network security
 >> and attack efforts.
 >>
 >> The Pentagon itself was rattled by the 2008 attack, a breach
 >> significant enough that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs briefed
 >> then-President George W. Bush. At the time, Pentagon officials said
 >> they believed the attack originated in Russia, although didn't say
 >> whether they believed the attacks were connected to the government.
 >> Russia has denied involvement.
 >>
 >> The Rules of Armed Conflict that guide traditional wars are derived
 >> from a series of international treaties, such as the Geneva
 >> Conventions, as well as practices that the U.S. and other nations
 >> consider customary international law. But cyber warfare isn't covered
 >> by existing treaties. So military officials say they want to seek a
 >> consensus among allies about how to proceed.
 >>
 >> \"Act of war\" is a political phrase, not a legal term, said Charles
 >> Dunlap, a retired Air Force Major General and professor at Duke
 >> University law school. Gen. Dunlap argues cyber attacks that have a
 >> violent effect are the legal equivalent of armed attacks, or what the
 >> military calls a \"use of force.\"
 >>
 >> \"A cyber attack is governed by basically the same rules as any other
 >> kind of attack if the effects of it are essentially the same,\" Gen.
 >> Dunlap said Monday. The U.S. would need to show that the cyber weapon
 >> used had an effect that was the equivalent of a conventional attack.
 >>
 >> James Lewis, a computer-security specialist at the Center for
 >> Strategic and International Studies who has advised the Obama
 >> administration, said Pentagon officials are currently figuring out
 >> what kind of cyber attack would constitute a use of force. Many
 >> military planners believe the trigger for retaliation should be the
 >> amount of damage-actual or attempted-caused by the attack.
 >>
 >> For instance, if computer sabotage shut down as much commerce as
 >> would a naval blockade, it could be considered an act of war that
 >> justifies retaliation, Mr. Lewis said. Gauges would include \"death,
 >> damage, destruction or a high level of disruption\" he said.
 >>
 >> Culpability, military planners argue in internal Pentagon debates,
 >> depends on the degree to which the attack, or the weapons themselves,
 >> can be linked to a foreign government. That's a tricky prospect at
 >> the best of times.
 >>
 >> The brief 2008 war between Russia and Georgia included a cyber attack
 >> that disrupted the websites of Georgian government agencies and
 >> financial institutions. The damage wasn't permanent but did disrupt
 >> communication early in the war.
 >>
 >> A subsequent NATO study said it was too hard to apply the laws of
 >> armed conflict to that cyber attack because both the perpetrator and
 >> impact were unclear. At the time, Georgia blamed its neighbor,
 >> Russia, which denied any involvement.
 >>
 >> Much also remains unknown about one of the best-known cyber weapons,
 >> the Stuxnet computer virus that sabotaged some of Iran's nuclear
 >> centrifuges. While some experts suspect it was an Israeli attack,
 >> because of coding characteristics, possibly with American assistance,
 >> that hasn't been proven. Iran was the location of only 60% of the
 >> infections, according to a study by the computer security firm
 >> Symantec. Other locations included Indonesia, India, Pakistan and the
 >> U.S.
 >>
 >> Officials from Israel and the U.S. have declined to comment on the
 >> allegations.
 >>
 >> Defense officials refuse to discuss potential cyber adversaries,
 >> although military and intelligence officials say they have identified
 >> previous attacks originating in Russia and China. A 2009
 >> government-sponsored report from the U.S.-China Economic and Security
 >> Review Commission said that China's People's Liberation Army has its
 >> own computer warriors, the equivalent of the American National
 >> Security Agency.
 >>
 >> That's why military planners believe the best way to deter major
 >> attacks is to hold countries that build cyber weapons responsible for
 >> their use. A parallel, outside experts say, is the George W. Bush
 >> administration's policy of holding foreign governments accountable
 >> for harboring terrorist organizations, a policy that led to the U.S.
 >> military campaign to oust the Taliban from power in Afghanistan.
 >>
 >> Read more:
 >> http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304563104576355623135782718.html#ixzz1NwYdh89v
 >>
 >>
 >> *US 'to view major cyber attacks as acts of war'*
 >>
 >> 31 May 2011 - 13H04
 >>
 >> http://www.france24.com/en/20110531-us-view-major-cyber-attacks-acts-war
 >>
 >>
 >> AFP - The Pentagon has adopted a new strategy that will classify
 >> major cyber attacks as acts of war, paving the way for possible
 >> military retaliation, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.
 >>
 >> The newspaper said the Pentagon plans to unveil its first-ever
 >> strategy regarding cyber warfare next month, in part as a warning to
 >> foes that may try to sabotage the country's electricity grid, subways
 >> or pipelines.
 >>
 >> \"If you shut down our power grid, maybe we will put a missile down
 >> one of your smokestacks,\" it quoted a military official as saying.
 >>
 >> The newspaper, citing three officials who had seen the document, said
 >> the the strategy would maintain that the existing international rules
 >> of armed conflict -- embodied in treaties and customs -- would apply
 >> in cyberspace.
 >>
 >> It said the Pentagon would likely decide whether to respond
 >> militarily to cyber attacks based on the notion of \"equivalence\" --
 >> whether the attack was comparable in damage to a conventional
 >> military strike.
 >>
 >> Such a decision would also depend on whether the precise source of
 >> the attack could be determined.
 >>
 >> The decision to formalize the rules of cyber war comes after the
 >> Stuxnet attack last year ravaged Iran's nuclear program. That attack
 >> was blamed on the United States and Israel, both of which declined to
 >> comment on it.
 >>
 >> It also follows a major cyber attack on the US military in 2008 that
 >> served as a wake-up call and prompted major changes in how the
 >> Pentagon handles digital threats, including the formation of a new
 >> cyber military command.
 >>
 >> Over the weekend Lockheed Martin, one of the world's largest defense
 >> contractors, said it was investigating the source of a \"significant
 >> and tenacious\" cyber attack against its information network one week ago.
 >>
 >> President Barack Obama was briefed about the attack.
","2011-06-01 15:20:54",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1661172_fwd-re-us-to-view-major-cyber-attacks-as-acts-of-war-.html","hughes@stratfor.com","","sean.noonan@stratfor.com",""
1663327,"Re: Assange is off the hook...
","   should we change our Stratfor motto now?
   Predictive, insightful intelligence...in a post-Cablegate world.
   On Dec 5, 2010, at 10:05 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: *I believe geopolitics
      will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases.*

     Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer saying
     how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files -- including
     names of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has *been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information age.*

     Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
     extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
     password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly
     endangering U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would it
     not then be possible to prosecute him for espionage? 

     -- 
     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
     Marko Papic
     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
     STRATFOR
     700 Lavaca Street - 900
     Austin, Texas
     78701 USA
     P: + 1-512-744-4094
     marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-12-06 05:11:39",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1663327_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1664671,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN - ISI Chief ***Not for
 sharing beyond list***
","   Great insight.  The bit about the Pasha-Panetta discussion that is then
   hijacked by DoS' involvement in the Davis case is very interesting. 

   On 4/12/11 1:34 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     I think the details of the entire interaction (in addition to the actual
     conversation) provides value. Hence the context. Also, I don't want to
     upset my delicate relationship with the directorate and the wider
     military establishment so let us not share this beyond the list.

     Spoke to him over the phone on the 11th of last month. At the time he
     was very busy (the Raymond Davis issue hadn't been settled and intense
     talks were taking place). I'm actually surprised he took my call. But
     then I was using my DC cell phone, which may explain him personally
     picking up the phone.

     Given his preoccupation and my own trips to Kabul and Cairo he said let
     us try to meet and play it by ear. In the brief conversation I asked him
     what was up with him getting another extension (he hadn't gotten it at
     the time) to which he replied that he is staying on in his position for
     quite a while. He asked me if I needed any security assistance while I
     was in country and I respectfully declined the offer.

     Our meeting Monday of last week was organized by the military's pr wing
     (the 2-star heading the dept and his chief of staff) and the ISI's pr
     people (in particular a certain Colonel Zaka). The last two times I met
     the ISI chief, it was at his residence inside Joint Staff Headquarters
     at Chaklala Garrison in Rawalpindi. This time around, the meeting took
     place in the super secure headquarters in Islamabad.

     In recent years there have many a lot of new roads constructed in the
     capital, especially around the ISI headquarters and then the jihadist
     insurgency led to the closure of the main road that ran in front of the
     directorate. So, it was interesting to actually get into the facility.
     Was directed to take a side/rear road into the complex.

     Had to go through five layers of security to get into the place. There
     were five check posts each with concrete as well as delta barriers and
     several armed men. The first two layers had guys with plain clothes with
     walkie talkies and guns while the inner three had uniformed men.

     Once after the main barrier, which is an iron gate you enter the
     courtyard of the new main building adjacent to the old ones. A really
     fine structure recently completed when the current army chief was
     heading the ISI and Musharraf was in charge - from the inside it
     resembles a 5-star hotel in terms of the quality of the interior
     finishing.

     I was told by the guard at the front door to park at the rear of the
     building. So I parked and walked back to the front. Once in the building
     and making my way through the metal detector I was greeted by a
     plainclothes official who said I didn't need to take out my blackberries
     to pass through the machine and asked me to hand them over to the guys
     at the reception who were also plainclothes people.

     The guys didn't look tech savvy but I would be surprised if others
     didn't go through my list of contacts and emails. The official who was
     wearing a tie and had two devices attached to his hip with a small
     earpiece escorted me to the fourth floor and seated me in a waiting room
     which could be accessed through two wooden doors and one made of glass.
     I was early and turned on the tv and waited for about 15 minutes before
     another person in a black suit and tie came in and took me to a meeting
     room where a minute later DG-ISI Lt-Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha came in and
     greeted me warmly remarking that I had come after a long time.

     We had a 30 minute conversation, which began with him asking me what was
     happening in Libya saying that Tripoli had asked for Islamabad's
     assistance - a request that was under consideration and wanted my
     thoughts on a) what was happening there; b) what I thought Pakistan
     could do to help. He also said that the U.S. seems to have made the
     wrong decision to intervene militarily. I briefly gave him our
     assessment of the situation and suggested that sending troops to Libya
     or Bahrain was very risky (which he agreed) but added that perhaps
     Pakistan could work with Turkey since Ankara is trying to take the lead
     in a diplomatic solution to the crisis there but I didn't know what kind
     of leverage Pakistan had with the rebels or the govt. By this time an
     aide had brought in tea and cookies in a really nice set of chinaware.

     I then asked him what was the status of U.S.-Pakistani relations
     specifically CIA-ISI post Raymond Davis. He said the relationship has
     not really changed. Of course it hasn't improved but it hasn't
     deteriorated further below the existing levels and told me he would be
     in DC to discuss the issue on the 11th. He then went into the details of
     what had happened with the Raymod Davis matter saying that this issue
     could have been solved if the Americans had kept it between the CIA and
     the ISI.

     He said he called up Panetta (who said he had a really good personal
     friendship with the D-CIA saying he was the only U.S. official whom he
     had invited to his house and introduced to his wife and son) asking him
     that we should sort out the issues between our two agencies. Panetta
     told him that he couldn't because State was taking the lead on it. Pasha
     said he was disappointed at this response and knew that this was about
     to turn into a diplomatic row and media ruckus.

     At that point he said the ISI let Punjab police handle the investigation
     and no one on the Pakistani side taking responsibility. The government
     said the matter is in the hands of the courts and the courts looking at
     the foreign ministry for answers about the status of Davis' immunity.
     All of this he said could have been avoided if it were not for State
     getting involved. Ultimately he said it came back to the ISI and we were
     able to work out an arrangement with the CIA. He also said once it
     became a media issue we were really worried that Davis might be killed
     by people from within the police service. (Another 2-star I met said
     there were concerns that the Americans could have him killed and we
     would be in deep shit). We wanted him gone and as soon as possible and
     thankfully we were able to pull it off.

     But he said that there are still unresolved questions about the people
     who Davis killed. He said they were not ISI sleuths as some suspect.
     Rather, low level thugs who had a lot of cash on them and in different
     currencies, which is

     On the domestic insurgency he said you can see things are much better.
     He added that in fact the situation was really good. The attacks were
     down and limited to a certain area.

     But it would take another 10-12 years to completely get rid of the issue
     and a lot depends on how the Americans settle Afghanistan. On North
     Waziristan he said, he has been saying that we need to do an operation
     there for several years now going back to the days when I was Director
     General Military Operations and was overseeing the early days of our
     counter-insurgency efforts in the northwest. But the issue is one of
     logistics.

     The only way to mount an offensive in NW is through South Waziristan,
     which we are trying to stabilize with the building of roads and
     resettlement of locals. We also needed to stabilize the tribal agencies
     to the north of North Waziristan, which is also a work in progress. Once
     we have achieved our goals of stabilizing SW, we will move into NW.  

     At this point, the ISI chief picks up the phone and asks one his aides
     to connect him to a certain official within the directorate (he referred
     to him as Director something can't quite remember). The guy comes in
     with a cell phone and the chief speaks with the guy asking him if the
     friends had given the coordinates for south waziristan. He then asks if
     it is south of a particular area or north. After that he says that is
     all I wanted to know and hangs up and apologizes for having to make the
     call.

     On Afghanistan, he said the Americans are stuck with the old notion that
     Pakistan wants to see the Taliban come to power again in Afghanistan.
     Anti-Pakistan and pro-India analysts and advisers in the U.S. and
     elsewhere continue to feed that perception. This is an outdated view
     because Islamabad has long given up that goal given the threat to
     Pakistani security. We do not wish to see the Talibs dominate
     Afghanistan.

     On the contrary, we want to see a broad-based government that can end
     the civil war in that country, which has had a disastrous fallout for
     us. Of course the Talibs will be a key player in a post-NATO
     Afghanistan, which we feel is necessary for true peace to take place.
     But that is just an acknowledgment of a reality than a desire on our
     part to see Talibs rule Kabul.

     Even the U.S. realizes that there will be a deal with the Talibs so why
     the double standards when it comes to us (especially when we will have
     to deal with the situation once after the U.S. leaves)? Pakistan wants
     to see a friendly government - one that can maintain peace in the
     country. Such a govt can only come about when the Karzai government can
     reach a negotiated settlement with the insurgents, which is not going to
     happen by talking to the former Talibs like Zaeef, Mutawakkil, etc.

     I asked him if the Obama admin had approached Pakistan to help with the
     negotiations. He said no such thing happening, which he said was the
     problem. He added that DC and Kabul need to involve us in the process
     because if anyone can deliver it is us and we have an interest in doing
     so. Look at what happened during that incident with the meeting with the
     man who they thought was Mullah Mansoor but in reality he was a
     shopkeeper who swindled them for money and made a mockery of everyone
     including Petraeus who actually met the guy (laughs and smirks at this
     point).

     At this point the guy who brought me into the room comes and in and says
     it is time for your next meeting. The chief says give me a few more
     minutes and we continue talking and he says I really appreciate the work
     you are doing in terms of steering clear of taking any sides. I then
     thank him and we begin to walk out of the room.

     At this point I asked him if there was any change to his email address
     and Pasha says I am sorry I have not been in regular touch over email
     because these people were reading my messages and I had to have my pc
     cleaned but I am still using the old email address. I asked who was
     reading his emails and he replied there is only one entity in Pakistan
     who can do that. (I take it he meant people from within the directorate
     were doing so).

     He walked me to the elevator from where I was escorted by another young
     man in black down to the lobby from where I collected my blackberries
     and he then escorted outside and asked me where I was parked to which I
     replied at the rear of the building and he then walked me to my car
     during which I asked him how long he had been serving in the ISI and he
     said for quite some time (I had hoped he would tell me the number of
     years). He waited until I pulled out and then waved and left and I drove
     out of the complex passing the same set of security layers I had
     encountered on my way in. 

      

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2011-04-12 21:16:14",1,"2012-03-16 21:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1664671_re-alpha-insight-afghanistan-pakistan-isi-chief-not-for.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1666377,"FBI (more) on Body
","   Down & dirty done, He already sleeps with the fish....

   ** Fred's Note:  Although I don't really give a rats ass, it seems to me
   that by dropping the corpse in the ocean, the body will come back to haunt
   us....gotta be violating some sort of obscure heathen religious rule that
   will inflame islam?  I was sleeping thru that class at Langley. 

   The US Govt needs to make body pics available like the MX's do, with OBL's
   pants pulled down, to shout down the lunatics like Alex Jones and Glenn
   Beck. 

    

    
","2011-05-02 15:11:03",1,"2012-02-29 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1666377_fbi-more-on-body-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
1666395,"Re: [Social] Burlesconi orgy - WARNING NUDITY
","   Some of the photos were reportedly taken during a party held at the villa
   for a visiting Czech delegation under the leadership of former Prime
   Minister Mirek Topolanek.

   El Pais said it was unable to confirm whether the picture of the naked man
   it published was that of Mr Topolanek. Mr Berlusconi's lawyer has
   previously said such a photo existed.

   Berlusconi fury over naked photos

   Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi has reacted angrily to the publication in
   Spain of photographs showing topless women and a naked man at his villa.

   He has threatened to sue Spain's El Pais newspaper, calling the photos an
   invasion of privacy.

   The photos - banned in Italy on privacy grounds - were taken from outside
   Mr Berlusconi's villa in Sardinia during a party for a Czech delegation.

   He also faces a probe for using state aircraft to fly guests to Sardinia.

   The prime minister is said to have used Italian aircraft to ferry guests
   to and from Villa Certosa, \"almost every weekend\" between the summer of
   2007 and January of this year, El Pais reports.

   Mr Berlusconi is being investigated for misuse of public funds, and
   confirmed on Thursday that he had been formally placed under investigation
   by prosecutors.

   But he said the probe would be \"swiftly shelved\", insisting he was allowed
   to transport \"people he needs\" for security reasons.

   Mystery man

   Under the headline \"The pictures vetoed by Berlusconi\", El Pais on Friday
   published five photos shot by photographer Antonello Zappadu from outside
   the gates of the Berlusconi villa.

   In the first, the face of the Italian prime minister - recently embroiled
   in a public row over his friendship with an 18-year-old model - can be
   clearly seen. He is accompanied by several women, with the face of one of
   them pixelated by the photographer and the others obscured by an awning.

   a** These are innocent photos, there's no scandal but this is a violation
   of privacy and a scandalous aggression a**
   Silvio Berlusconi Italian Prime Minister

   El Pais said that, to protect their identities, Mr Zappadu had pixelated
   the faces of all those photographed - with the exception of Mr Berlusconi.

   The second photograph shows two topless women, one standing and one lying
   on a sun lounger in the Sardinian sunshine. The woman standing is wearing
   nothing except a skimpy set of \"thong\" bikini briefs.

   But the third picture is the most stark, showing a fully naked man leaning
   over the edge of a swimming pool.

   El Pais said the pictures were examples of the approximately 300 which
   were blocked from publication in Italy at the weekend at Mr Berlusconi's
   request.

   Some of the photos were reportedly taken during a party held at the villa
   for a visiting Czech delegation under the leadership of former Prime
   Minister Mirek Topolanek.

   El Pais said it was unable to confirm whether the picture of the naked man
   it published was that of Mr Topolanek. Mr Berlusconi's lawyer has
   previously said such a photo existed.

   Other photographs reportedly include scenes of parties attended by several
   young women, including the 18-year-old model Noemi Letizia.

   'Nothing spicy'

   Mr Berlusconi has been under pressure to explain his relationship with Ms
   Letizia since his wife, Veronica Lario, said last month she was divorcing
   him after he had attended her 18th birthday party and gave her an
   expensive necklace. He has denied having an affair with her.

   Mr Berlusconi denounced the paparazzi on Friday for violating his privacy
   and \"scandalous aggression\", saying the photographs were entirely
   \"innocent\".

   When asked by Italian state-run Rai radio why there had been several naked
   women at his villa, he replied: \"Do you take a shower dressed?\"

   \"These girls were bathing in a whirlpool bath inside a private home, and
   they were assaulted in a scandalous way.

   \"These are innocent photos, there's no scandal but this is a violation of
   privacy and a scandalous aggression.

   The 72-year-old also repeated that there had been nothing \"spicy\" in his
   relations with Ms Letizia and that he would resign \"the next minute\" if
   proved otherwise.

   His lawyer, Niccolo Ghedini, described the photographs as having
   \"originated in a crime\", adding: \"Who buys them anywhere in the world is
   committing a crime, something which should have been clear to El Pais'
   journalists,\" he said.

   'Petty'

   According to reports, prosecutors in Rome also found several pictures
   taken at Sardinia's Olbia airport before and after the parties.

   They allegedly showed Mr Berlusconi's favourite singer, Mariano Apicella,
   his assistant, and an unidentified woman getting off the prime minister's
   official plane in May last year.

   Prosecutors were forced to open an investigation into Mr Berlusconi's use
   of public assets after a complaint was filed by a consumer association,
   Codacons.

   \"It means nothing. It will be shelved very soon,\" Berlusconi told a Milan
   television station via phone on Thursday.

   \"There is a rule, passed by the prime minister's office, that allows the
   prime minister, when he uses state planes for reasons of security, to take
   with him people he feels he needs at no cost,\" he said.

   However, the newspaper La Stampa has said the regulation did not take
   effect until August, three months after the airport pictures.

   Mr Berlusconi said he had entertained several heads of state and
   government - including Mr Topolanek - at his villa in Sardinia, and had
   \"offered all that I receive from them, including shows with artistes\".

   \"But this is not a burden on the [Italian] state,\" he added.

   The prime minister called the accusations \"petty\" and suggested they had
   been timed to coincide with this week's European Parliament elections.
   Italians are set to vote on Saturday and Sunday.

   Story from BBC NEWS:
   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Robin Blackburn\" <blackburn@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Social list\" <social@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Friday, June 5, 2009 2:29:39 PM GMT -05:00 Colombia
   Subject: Re: [Social] Burlesconi orgy - WARNING NUDITY

   I love how they blurred out the faces, but not the penises.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Alex Posey\" <alex.posey@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Social list\" <social@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Friday, June 5, 2009 2:20:53 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: [Social] Burlesconi orgy - WARNING NUDITY

   http://www.elpais.com/fotogaleria/imagenes/censuradas/Berlusconi/6527-1/elpgal/

 --
 Alex Posey
 STRATFOR
 alex.posey@stratfor.com
 Office: 512.744.4303
 Cell: 512.351.6645
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1666395_re-social-burlesconi-orgy-warning-nudity-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","social@stratfor.com",""
1671459,"INSIGHT - military intervention in Syria, post withdrawal status of
 forces
","   A few points I wanted to highlight from meetings today --

   I spent most of the afternoon at the Pentagon with the USAF strategic
   studies group - guys who spend their time trying to understand and explain
   to the USAF chief the big picture in areas where they're operating in. It
   was just myself and four other guys at the Lieutenant Colonel level,
   including one French and one British representative who are liaising with
   the US currently out of DC.

   They wanted to grill me on the strategic picture on Syria, so after that I
   got to grill them on the military picture. There is still a very low level
   of understanding of what is actually at stake in Syria, what's the
   strategic interest there, the Turkish role, the Iranian role, etc. After a
   couple hours of talking, they said without saying that SOF teams
   (presumably from US, UK, France, Jordan, Turkey) are already on the ground
   focused on recce missions and training opposition forces. One Air Force
   intel guy (US) said very carefully that there isn't much of a Free Syrian
   Army to train right now anyway, but all the operations being done now are
   being done out of 'prudence.'  The way it was put to me was, 'look at this
   way - the level of information known on Syrian OrBat this month is the
   best it's been since 2001.'  They have been told to prepare contingencies
   and be ready to act within 2-3 months, but they still stress that this is
   all being done as contingency planning, not as a move toward escalation.

   I kept pressing on the question of what these SOF teams would be working
   toward, and whether this would lead to an eventual air camapign to give a
   Syrian rebel group cover. They pretty quickly distanced themselves from
   that idea, saying that the idea 'hypothetically' is to commit guerrilla
   attacks, assassination campaigns, try to break the back of the Alawite
   forces, elicit collapse from within. There wouldn't be a need for air
   cover, and they wouldn't expect these Syrian rebels to be marching in
   columns anyway.

   They emphasized how the air campaign in Syria makes Libya look like a
   piece of cake.  Syrian air defenses are a lot more robust and are much
   denser, esp around Damascus and on the borders with Israel, Turkey. THey
   are most worried about mobile air defenses, particularly the SA-17s that
   they've been getting recently.  It's still a doable mission, it's just not
   an easy one.

   The main base they would use is Cyprus, hands down. Brits and FRench would
   fly out of there. They kept stressing how much is stored at Cyprus and how
   much recce comes out of there. The group was split on whether Turkey would
   be involved, but said Turkey would be pretty critical to the mission to
   base stuff out of there. EVen if Turkey had a poltiical problem with
   Cyprus, they said there is no way the Brits and the FRench wouldn't use
   Cyprus as their main air force base. Air Force Intel guy seems pretty
   convinced that the Turks won't participate (he seemed pretty pissed at
   them.)

   There still seems to be a lot of confusion over what a military
   intervention involving an air campaign would be designed to achieve.   It
   isn't clear cut for them geographically like in Libya, and you can't just
   create an NFZ over Homs, Hama region. This would entail a countrywide SEAD
   campaign lasting the duration of the war.  They dont believe air
   intervention would happen unless there was enough media attention on a
   massacre, like the Ghadafi move against Benghazi. They think the US would
   have a high tolerance for killings as long as it doesn't reach that very
   public stage.  Theyre also questiioning the skills of the Syrian forces
   that are operating the country's air defenses currently and how
   signfiicant the Iranian presence is there. Air Force Intel guy is most
   obsessed with the challenge of taking out Syria's ballistic missile
   capabilities and chem weapons.  With Israel rgiht there and the regime
   facing an existential crisis, he sees that as a major complication to any
   military intervention.

   The post 2011 SOFA with Iraq is still being negotiated. These guys were
   hoping that during Biden's visit that he would announce a deal with
   Maliki, but no such luck.  They are gambling ont he idea that the Iraqis
   remember the iran-iraq war and that maliki is not going to want to face
   the threat of Iranian jets entering Iraqi air space.  THey say that most
   US fighter jets are already out of Iraq and transferred to Kuwait. They
   explained that's the beauty of the air force, the base in Kuwait is just a
   hop, skip and jump away from their bases in Europe, ie. very easy to
   rapidly build up when they need to.  They don't seem concerned about the
   US ability to restructure its forces to send a message to Iran. They gave
   the example of the USS Enterprise that was supposed to be out of
   commission already and got extended another couple years to send to the
   gulf. WHen the US withdraws, we'll have at least 2 carriers in the gulf
   out of centcom and one carrier in the Med out of EuCom. I asked if the
   build-up in Kuwait and the carrier deployments are going to be enough to
   send a message to Iran that the US isn't going anywhere. They responded
   that Iran will get the message if they read the Centcom Web Site. STarting
   Jan. 1 expect them to be publishing all over the place where the US is
   building up.

   Another concern they have about an operation in Syria is whether Iran
   could impede operations out of Balad air force base in Iraq.

   The French representative was of hte opinion that Syria won't be a
   libya-type situation in that France would be gung-ho about going in. Not
   in an election year. The UK rep also emphasized UK reluctance but said
   that the renegotiation of the EU treaty undermines the UK role and that UK
   would be looking for ways to reassert itself on the continent ( i dont
   really think a syria campaign is the way to do that.) UK guy mentioned as
   an aside that the air force base commander at Cyprus got switched out from
   a maintenance guy to a guy that flew Raptors, ie someone that understands
   what it means to start dropping bombs. He joked that it was probably a
   coincidence.

   Prior to that, I had a meeting with an incoming Kuwaiti diplomat (will be
   coded as KU301.) His father was high up in the regime, always by the
   CP's/PM's side. The diplo himself still seems to be getting his feet wet
   in DC (the new team just arrived less than 2 weeks ago,) but he made
   pretty clear that Kuwait was opening the door to allowing US to build up
   forces as needed.  THey already have a significant presence there, and a
   lot of them will be on 90-day rotations. He also said that the SOFA that
   the US signs with Baghdad at the last minute will be worded in such a way
   that even allowing one trainer in the country can be construed to mean
   what the US wants in terms of keeping forces in Iraq. Overall, I didnt get
   the impression from him that Kuwait is freaked out about the US leaving. 
   Everyhting is just getting rearranged.  The Kuwaitis used to be much
   better at managing their relations with Iran, but ever since that spy ring
   story came out  a year ago, it's been bad.  He doesn't think Iran has
   significant covert capabililiteis in the GCC states, though they are
   trying. Iranian activity is mostly propaganda focused. He said that while
   KSA and Bahrain they can deal with it as needed and black out the media,
   Kuwait is a lot more open and thus provides Iran with more oppotunity to
   shape perceptions (he used to work in inforamtion unit in Kuwait.) He says
   there is a sig number of kuwaitis that listen to Iranian media like Al
   Alam especially.

   On the Kuwaiti political scene - the government is having a harder time
   dealing with a more emboldened opposition, but the opposition is still
   extremely divided, esp among the Islamists. The MPs now all have to go
   back to their tribes to rally support for the elections to take place in
   Feb. Oftentimes an MP in Kuwait city will find out that he has lost
   support back home with the tribe, and so a lot of moeny is handed out.The
   govt is hoping that witha  clean slate they can quiet the opposition down.
   A good way of managing the opposition he said is to refer cases to the
   courts, where they can linger forever. good way for the govt to buy time. 
   He doesnt believe the Arab League will take significant action against
   Syria - no one is interested in military intervention. they just say it to
   threaten it.
","2011-12-07 00:49:18",1,"2012-03-06 07:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1671459_insight-military-intervention-in-syria-post-withdrawal.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
1672470,"Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian Bulgaria?
 Don't get your hopes up!
","   nice.

     Newly elected Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Boyko Borisov, has in a letter
     on July 13 asked the Economy and Energy Minister Petar Dimitrov to
     temporarily freeze the construction of the Belene nuclear power plant
     and the development of the South Stream natural gas pipeline project.
     Borisov claimed in the letter that the Bulgarian state owned companies
     involved in the two projects were not taking into account the economic
     crisis in their operations, hinting at financial malfeasance. Both the
     Belene nuclear power plant and the South Stream project are being
     developed in cooperation with Russian state owned enterprises,
     Atomstroyexport and Gazprom respectively.

     Russian influence in Bulgaria has always been considered as robust and
     the government of outgoing prime minister Sergei Stanishev did nothing
     to dispel that notion, despite Sofia's entry into the EU in 2007 under
     his leadership and the fact that it had been a member of NATO since
     2004. Bulgaria's relatively eager participation in the South Stream
     project - Russian alternative to the EU's Nabucco project - has been
     lauded as an example of the close collaboration between Moscow and Sofia
     and proof of Bulgaria's \"Trojan Horse\" status within the Western
     Alliance.

     Borisov's actions, one of his first as incoming prime minister, to
     freeze progress on the two major Russian projects within Bulgaria seem
     to suggest that he will stick to his campaign promise to play by \"EU
     rules\" on energy policy and reverse his opponent's policies of cozying
     up to Russia. He also campaigned that he would not be beholden to Moscow
     and that he would treat Russia just like any other power, thus ending
     the special relationship enjoyed by Sofia and Moscow under Stanishev's
     government.

     However, the warm relations between Bulgaria and Russia are not a modern
     phenomenon, nor are they beholden to any particular government's
     policies. The relationship is rooted in geopolitics and has withstood
     the test of time from the 19th Century until today.

     Bulgaria owes its independence from the Ottoman Empire in late 19th
     Century to Russia which fought the Russo-Turkish War with the intent of
     creating a \"Greater Bulgaria\" with sea access in both the Black Sea and
     the Aegean Sea. The Russian plan for an enlarged Bulgaria, which would
     have given Russia friendly ports in the Mediterranean, backfired by
     alarming Western powers who were forced to intervene, albeit
     diplomatically, during the 1878 Berlin Congress and thus greatly reduced
     Bulgaria's territory.

     Russia and Bulgaria continued to have a strong relationship throughout
     the 20th Century despite Bulgaria's decision to side with the Central
     Powers in the First World War and subsequently the Axis in the Second.
     As an example of its strong link to Moscow, Bulgaria refused to join the
     attack against the Soviet Union despite being officially allied with
     Nazi Germany. The subsequent communist period in Bulgaria, while not
     remembered with nostalgia, does not elicit the same kind of knee jerk
     anti-Russian feelings as in much the rest of Central and Eastern Europe.
     Bulgaria was a loyal member of the Soviet Bloc with no uprisings against
     Moscow's regional hegemony.

     The oft stated reason for Bulgaria's affinity towards Russia are the
     cultural and religious ties between the two countries and these
     certainly work well to grease the wheels of the relationship.  However,
     in reality, Bulgaria's interests are rooted in its geopolitical
     circumstances. Surrounded by entities who have historically been
     stronger and sometimes outright aggressive towards it -- namely
     Turkey/Ottoman Empire to the South, Romania to the north and
     Yugoslavia/Serbia to the West, Bulgaria has often relied on Russia to
     play the role of its protector and champion in the region.  Meanwhile,
     from the Russian perspective, Bulgaria affords it a foothold in the
     Balkans, much more reliable than the often too independently minded
     Serbia and Romania, both of which had plans of their own to become
     regional hegemons. 

     Borisov's initial moves against Russian projects in Bulgaria should
     therefore not be taken to signal a fundamental shift in Bulgaria's
     relations with Russia. Borisov's government may temper some of the overt
     signs of this strong relationship, but his move to freeze progress on
     South Stream and the Belene power plant is more likely about rooting out
     his predecessor's control of those lucrative projects than about
     fundamentally moving Bulgaria away from Russia.  Once Borisov feels that
     he and his power base are sufficiently in control of all aspects of the
     Sofia-Moscow relationship, it is very likely that Bulgaria will continue
     to be one of Russia's strongest allies within the EU and NATO.
","2009-07-13 22:01:08",1,"2012-02-27 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1672470_re-analysis-for-comment-bulgaria-russia-anti-russian.html","nathan.hughes@stratfor.com","","marko.papic@stratfor.com",""
1672788,"Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian Bulgaria?
 Don't get your hopes up!
","   I don't see why it would. Bulgaria certainly loves being the center of
   attention and in the perfect scenario both South Stream and Nabucco would
   happen and both go through Bulgaria. So if Turkey decides to do Nabucco,
   Bulgaria is quite happy with that, as long as it is still the center of
   both projects.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, July 13, 2009 3:30:12 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian
   Bulgaria? Don't get your hopes up!

   the timing of this statement is pretty interesting. same day that turkey
   signs nabucco. even if nabucco is for show, does bulgaria feel it has more
   options with TUrkey playing the field?
   On Jul 13, 2009, at 3:02 PM, Karen Hooper wrote:

     Marko Papic wrote:

     I had to cut out a LOT of info we have on Borisov simply because I am
     not sure which bits could get us into legal trouble. Nonetheless, a lot
     of that stuff is also weedy, so I think a broader geopolitical
     discussion is not out of place. 

     Newly elected Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Boyko Borisov, has in a letter
     on July 13 asked the Economy and Energy Minister Petar Dimitrov to
     temporarily freeze the construction of the Belene nuclear power plant
     and the development of the South Stream natural gas pipeline project.
     Borisov claimed in the letter that the Bulgarian state owned companies
     involved in the two projects were not taking into account the economic
     crisis in their operations, hinting at financial malfeasance. Both the
     Belene nuclear power plant and the South Stream project are being
     developed in cooperation with Russian state owned enterprises,
     Atomstroyexport and Gazprom respectively. 

     Russian influence in Bulgaria has always been considered as robust and
     the government of outgoing prime minister Sergei Stanishev did nothing
     to dispel that notion, despite Sofiaa**s entry into the EU in 2007 under
     his leadership and the fact that it had been a member of NATO since
     2004 agree that it might be a good idea to explain the motivation to do
     this while still remaining firmly in russia's pocket. Bulgariaa**s
     relatively eager participation in the South Stream project a** Russian
     alternative to the EUa**s Nabucco project a** has been lauded as an
     example of the close collaboration between Moscow and Sofia and proof of
     Bulgariaa**s a**Trojan Horsea** status within the Western Alliance.

     Borisova**s actions, one of his first as incoming prime minister, to
     freeze progress on the two major Russian projects within Bulgaria seem
     to suggest that he will stick to his campaign promise to play by a**EU
     rulesa** on energy policy and reverse his opponenta**s policies of
     cozying up to Russia. He also campaigned on the idea that that he would
     not be beholden to Moscow and that he would treat Russia just like any
     other power, thus ending the special relationship enjoyed by Sofia and
     Moscow under Stanisheva**s government. 

     However, the warm relations between Bulgaria and Russia are not a modern
     phenomenon, nor are they beholden to any particular governmenta**s
     policies. The relationship is rooted in geopolitics and has withstood
     the test of time from the 19thCentury until today. 

     Bulgaria owes its independence from the Ottoman Empire in late
     19th Century to Russia which fought the Russo-Turkish War with the
     intent of creating a a**Greater Bulgariaa** with sea access in both the
     Black Sea and the Aegean Sea. The Russian plan for an enlarged Bulgaria,
     which would have given Russia friendly ports in the Mediterranean,
     backfired by alarming Western powers who were forced to intervene,
     albeit diplomatically, during the 1878 Berlin Congress and thus greatly
     reduced Bulgariaa**s territory.

     Russia and Bulgaria continued to have a strong relationship throughout
     the 20th Century despite Bulgariaa**s decision to side with the Central
     Powers in the First World War and subsequently the Axis in the Second.
     As an example of its strong link to Moscow, Bulgaria refused to join the
     attack against the Soviet Union despite being officially allied with
     Nazi Germany. The subsequent communist period in Bulgaria, while not
     remembered with nostalgia, does not elicit the same kind of knee jerk
     anti-Russian feelings as in much the rest of Central and Eastern Europe.
     Bulgaria was a loyal member of the Soviet Bloc with no uprisings against
     Moscowa**s regional hegemony. 

     The oft stated reason for Bulgariaa**s affinity towards Russia are the
     cultural and religious ties between the two countries and these
     certainly work well to grease the wheels of the relationship.  However,
     in reality, Bulgariaa**s interests are rooted in its geopolitical
     circumstances. Surrounded by entities who have historically been
     stronger and sometimes outright aggressive towards it -- namely
     Turkey/Ottoman Empire to the South, Romania to the north and
     Yugoslavia/Serbia to the West, Bulgaria has often relied on Russia to
     play the role of its protector and champion in the region.  i would move
     this paragraph up to above where you give examples of russia being a
     protector Meanwhile, from the Russian perspective, Bulgaria affords it a
     foothold in the Balkans, much more reliable than the often too
     independently minded Serbia and Romania, both of which had plans of
     their own to become regional hegemons.  there must be some more concrete
     ties between Bulgaria to Moscow, particularly with Stanishev's close
     ties, Moscow must have a great deal in the way of economic levers. if
     so, i owuld include that as evidence for why Borisov cannot possibly be
     actually pulling away from Russia. Furthermore, Russia is in no mood to
     have a satellite drift away, and you might want to piont out that even
     if he were trying, the Russians would leverage much more than a history
     of protectorship to bring bulgaria back into line. 

     Borisova**s initial moves against Russian projects in Bulgaria should
     therefore not be taken to signal a fundamental shift in Bulgariaa**s
     relations with Russia. Borisova**s government may temper some of the
     overt signs of this strong relationship, but his move to freeze progress
     on South Stream and the Belene power plant is more likely about rooting
     out his predecessora**s control of those lucrative projects than about
     fundamentally moving Bulgaria away from Russia.  Once Borisov feels that
     he and his power base are sufficiently in control of all aspects of the
     Sofia-Moscow relationship, it is very likely that Bulgaria will continue
     to be one of Russia's strongest allies within the EU and NATO.
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-27 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1672788_re-analysis-for-comment-bulgaria-russia-anti-russian.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1673644,"Re: Russian spy ring - Update - Russian double agent 'helped crack'
 US spy ring
","   it's always been possible there were other triggers.  Though the
   coincidence of all these events is still weird. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Anya Alfano\" <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
   To: \"TACTICAL\" <tactical@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, November 11, 2010 8:15:35 AM
   Subject: Russian spy ring - Update - Russian double agent 'helped crack'
   US spy ring

   Filling in a few blanks of the story--if true, doesn't sound like Comrade
   J was actually a trigger, or possibly even involved at all. 

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: [OS] US/RUSSIA - Russian double agent 'helped crack' US spy ring 
       Date: Thu, 11 Nov 2010 01:09:16 -0600 (CST)                            
       From: Zac Colvin <zac.colvin@stratfor.com>                             
   Reply-To: The OS List <os@stratfor.com>                                    
         To: OS List <os@stratfor.com>                                        

   Kommersant not in English
   Russian double agent 'helped crack' US spy ring
   http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/20101111/twl-russia-us-spy-diplomacy-7e07afd.html
   AFP - 54 minutes ago

   MOSCOW (AFP) - A-c-A*A* A Russian spy ring broken by the United States
   this summer was detected with the help of a Russian intelligence agent
   whose daughter lives in the United States, the Kommersant daily reported
   Thursday.

   The respected business daily identified the Russian accomplice as
   Shcherbakov, a colonel with the Russian foreign intelligence service.

   It said Shcherbakov fled Russia for the United States three days prior to
   Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's June visit to Washington.

   The paper cited sources as saying that Shcherbakov's son also quit his
   post with the Russian drug control agency and fled to the United States
   shortly before Washington revealed the spy ring that month.

   His daughter has long lived in the United States, the paper said, without
   providing further details.

   \"It seems odd that no one bothered to check why a person of that rank has
   a daughter living in the United States,\" Kommersant quoted an unnamed
   intelligence source as saying.

   Shcherbakov himself turned down an important promotion last year,
   suggesting that he had already been working with Washington, the paper
   said.

   The group of 10 spies, many of whom had been working for years undercover
   in the United States as sleeper agents, returned to Russia in a July spy
   swap that saw Moscow send four Russian convicts to the West.

   Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who served as a Soviet foreign intelligence
   agent in East Germany, this summer denounced the then-unnamed Russian
   collaborator as someone whose life will end \"with boozing or drugs,\"
   Kommersant said.

   The Russian foreign intelligence agency was not immediately available for
   comment.

   --
   Zac Colvin

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   Office: +1 512-279-9479
   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   www.stratfor.com
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1673644_re-russian-spy-ring-update-russian-double-agent-helped-crack.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","tactical@stratfor.com",""
1675721,"Re: wikileaks and second wave of financial crisis
","   Who is this? Do you have a link?

   I like the way he tries to tie everything together, trying to do that is
   difficult and takes balls, so I salute him. However, I vehemently disagree
   that the state is fundamentally endangered. The EU is fraying, I will give
   him that. But what is coming up to replace it is not some dream of a 
   information based communal anarchy -- or people's court -- that I am sure
   Assange falls asleep to at night. No, in fact the fraying of the sinews
   that used to bind Europe during the Cold War has only allowed nationalism
   to creep back up in an even stronger capacity.

   The problem is that there is still a lot of anti-globalization leftist
   capacity out there, they have not been exhausted by the immediate
   post-9/11 revival of nationalism. People such as Assange (on the fringes)
   and most anti-globalization, ultra-liberal activists/academics (such as
   many of my Canadian friends/profs) feel that because they operate in such
   supranational circles, that the entire world is amenable to such
   intellectual and material existence. The problem is that they have never
   been to Oklahoma, or Afghanistan, and therefore ignore just how
   non-supranational the world really is. Just how local and very much
   national it still is.

   The problem that Assange and these new anti-globalists (anti-statists?)
   have is in replacing nationalism with something coherent, something that
   people can actually touch, feel, smell and pray to. Nationalism came in
   the late 18th early 19th Century to replace religion, in effect, in
   fulfilling a key societal role of binding un-connected people together in
   destiny. Human condition requires such a bond. It is practically universal
   to humans.

   I therefore really don't think that the nation-state, or states, are on
   the defensive. In fact, I think they are on the offensive from the 1990s,
   which were a heaven for the anti-globalists and people such as Assange.
   They are on the retreat.

   Just look at the American public reaction to the Wikileak cables. Nobody
   cares. In fact, most people are proud of the State Department diplomats
   and their ability to do the sort of cogent analysis that the cables
   reveal.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Lena Bell\" <lena.bell@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 30, 2010 9:48:20 PM
   Subject: wikileaks and second wave of financial crisis

   hi marko, this is from a great journo back home... I think it is a
   /very/ interesting piece. You might too. Looks at the second wave of the
   financial crisis (what is happening now) and the latest wikileaks as two
   processes that have come into collision... transforming the relationship
   between states, nations, information and economy.

   (he's prob reporting from europe - could possibly get in touch with him
   if you want)

   Confidential communication

    

   Rundle:
    
   As the WikiLeaks cablegate (WL-CG) revelations continue to roll out, the
   mood of defiance grows in Ireland, with calls for \"default\", for an
   immediate election, or for a citizens assembly coming from ever wider
   quarters. The euro has failed to lift on the market, suggesting that the
   vicious austerity package, has failed to convince. Down the road in
   Trafalgar Square, in the first snow of the year, the students are
   fighting a running battle with the cops, who are trying to kettle them
   around Nelson's column. Interpol has issued a warrant for Julian
   Assange, based on the warrant issued by the Swedish courts on r-pe
   allegations.

   The European Commission is investigating monopoly price fixing practices
   by Google, showing surprising backbone. The spotlight is on China, after
   WL-CG revelations that China had expressed the wish that Korea be
   reunified under Seoul. Now, joining revelations that the Arab world
   wants a strike on Iran, is confirmation that the US knows of official
   Saudi funding links to al-Qaeda, and that the US feels that Pakistan is
   a larger problem than Afghanistan in the propagation of terror.

   President Karzai -- dubbed inept and credulous in cables -- pardoned
   five heroin traffickers who were caught with more than 250 kilograms of
   the stuff en route to the streets of the West. The US began moves to
   charge Assange under the Espionage Act, and the Australian government is
   dutifully looking for something to charge him with too.

   In the House of Commons, the Lib-Dems are in chaos, preparing to abstain
   from a vote hiking up tuition fees after pledging to oppose it before
   the election, with talk of defections from the party. Revelations in the
   WL-CG cables that PMs Brown and Cameron unsuccessfully attempted to make
   a deal to avoid the extradition of Garry McKinnon, an autistic kid who
   hacked into unprotected US security networks, and is facing decades in
   jail under the one-way extradition treaty signed by Blair.

   The revelation has dealt another small but visible blow to the special
   relationship. And the UK \"put in place\" measures to shield the US during
   the Chilcot inquiry into the Iraq War. According to WL-CG. And Portugal
   has announced, in the past 15 minutes, that its banks may fail.

   Clearly something is under way, a larger shift than can be explained
   merely by the individual occurrences, substantial as they are. Two
   massive processes have come into collision -- the second wave of the
   global financial crisis, breaking strongly in Europe, hitting WikiLeaks'
   rolling wave of information storms, changing the relationship between
   state and power. The transformation of the relationship between four
   elements -- states, nations, information and economy -- has been
   categorical, and even if it recedes in the next few days (which it is
   unlikely to), it will not retreat back to the status quo.

   Something has happened, and it is worth trying to work out what, while
   it is going on.

   Taken at the broadest structural level, one could say this -- a series
   of crucial shifts going back 30 years have now come together in a manner
   that has pitched the global power system into a potential crisis of
   legitimacy. In the early 1980s, global financial transactions --
   hitherto substantially bound within states -- began to be extended
   internationally in real time, due to greater use of information
   technology as \"virtual\" markets, and then the only arena in which
   transactions took place.

   The Reagan and Thatcher victories detached economy from state
   politically, deregulating finance. The transition from the EEC to the
   EC/EU detached state structures from nation, translating them into a
   European super-state. The spread of the internet in the late '80s and
   '90s changed the relationship of information to state, making it
   materially impossible to regulate information flows via old means of
   censorship and control.

   With the global financial economy dictating terms to the superstates in
   the late '90s -- Glass-Steagall was repealed at the same time as the
   euro was launched -- and using the global net as both its medium, and
   domain for creation of new assets, the nations, the ethni rallied around
   increasingly crude expressions of solidarity, increasingly with a
   religious charge.

   The most brutal expression of this was 9/11, and the state responded by
   trying to regain some of the power it had since given up to information
   and economy. By now it was too late. The new culture, subjectivity and
   legitimacy of the cybersphere implicitly undermined the state. WikiLeaks
   is theorisation and operationalisation of that moment, which is an act
   of (collective) thought, and a changed material reality.

   The autonomous processes of a global economy, operating at the
   hyperspeed -- effectively light speed -- of an autonomous global
   information system, eventually came apart, and the debris rained down on
   the nations. The Greeks, the Irish, the Portuguese, maintaining a sense
   of community separated from the state were initially powerless. The
   states -- the EU and the US -- had a relationship only to the economy,
   not to the nation, and promptly bailed out the former at the cost of the
   latter, stealing their life, to pay off debt.

   At this point, with the legitimacy of state and economy at historic
   lows, the three major blows of WikiLeaks have decisively shifted the
   power relationship between information on the one hand, and
   state/economy on the other. From the other end, the nations are
   rebelling. \"Peoples of Europe, rise up\" the Greek Communist Party's
   slogan hung from the Acropolis chimes with WikiLeaks material and
   categorical challenge to the very fabric of state power, as expressed in
   the notion of \"inviolable diplomatic communication\".

   In Europe, oft dismissed as the old dead world, but really the cutting
   edge of the world-island, it will only take one crucial challenge from
   the nations -- a citizens challenge to state power in Ireland, for
   example -- to join the two up, in an equally dynamic fashion. Assange's
   announcement, in Forbes magazine, that WL may do a Wall Street document
   dump next effectively closes the circle.

   You can feel the change in the air, read it in every report. The more
   that the fused political-media-administrative elite try to write it off
   as \"entertaining anecdote\" while at the same time mobilising state power
   to destroy the organisation, the more they reveal that something has
   happened. The old process of leaks -- a document here and there -- only
   served to reinforce the idea that the state had an unquestionable right
   to control information, and that there could be no other way to organise
   society or create law.

   That legitimacy has had a fatal crack put it in. The whole question of
   who should know what has been put into play. There will be reversals,
   but we're used to those. As I may have mentioned, something is happening.

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1675721_re-wikileaks-and-second-wave-of-financial-crisis-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","lena.bell@stratfor.com",""
1677951,"Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian Bulgaria?
 Don't get your hopes up!
","   That spat was resolved exactly the same way that any serious Borisov move
   will be... Moscow Mayor, head of the Moscow mob, and apparently Borisov's
   close personal friend (which just goes to prove my point), Yuri Luzhkov
   sat down with Parvanov and told him he would have Russian OC set Sofia
   ablaze if Parvanov messed around...

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Korena Zucha\" <zucha@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, July 13, 2009 4:06:26 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian
   Bulgaria? Don't get your hopes up!

   Marko Papic wrote:

     I had to cut out a LOT of info we have on Borisov simply because I am
     not sure which bits could get us into legal trouble. Nonetheless, a lot
     of that stuff is also weedy, so I think a broader geopolitical
     discussion is not out of place.

     Newly elected Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Boyko Borisov, has in a letter
     on July 13 asked the Economy and Energy Minister Petar Dimitrov to
     temporarily freeze the construction of the Belene nuclear power plant
     and the development of the South Stream natural gas pipeline project.
     Borisov claimed in the letter that the Bulgarian state owned companies
     involved in the two projects were not taking into account the economic
     crisis in their operations, hinting at financial malfeasance. Both the
     Belene nuclear power plant and the South Stream project are being
     developed in cooperation with Russian state owned enterprises,
     Atomstroyexport and Gazprom respectively.

     Russian influence in Bulgaria has always been considered as robust and
     the government of outgoing prime minister Sergei Stanishev did nothing
     to dispel that notion, despite Sofiaa**s entry into the EU in 2007 under
     his leadership and the fact that it had been a member of NATO since
     2004. Bulgariaa**s relatively eager participation in the South Stream
     project a** Russian alternative to the EUa**s Nabucco project a** has
     been lauded as an example of the close collaboration between Moscow and
     Sofia and proof of Bulgariaa**s a**Trojan Horsea** status within the
     Western Alliance. What about when Bulgarian Presdent Parvanov said in
     April that the Bulgarian pipeline network is not an a**extensiona** of
     Russiaa**s networks, and that Russian state natural gas company Gazprom
     should respect Bulgariaa**s sovereignty?
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090427_russia_bulgaria_lingering_tensions

     Borisova**s actions, one of his first as incoming prime minister, to
     freeze progress on the two major Russian projects within Bulgaria seem
     to suggest that he will stick to his campaign promise to play by a**EU
     rulesa** on energy policy and reverse his opponenta**s policies of
     cozying up to Russia. He also campaigned that he would not be beholden
     to Moscow and that he would treat Russia just like any other power, thus
     ending the special relationship enjoyed by Sofia and Moscow under
     Stanisheva**s government.

     However, the warm relations between Bulgaria and Russia are not a modern
     phenomenon, nor are they beholden to any particular governmenta**s
     policies. The relationship is rooted in geopolitics and has withstood
     the test of time from the 19th Century until today.

     Bulgaria owes its independence from the Ottoman Empire in late 19th
     Century to Russia which fought the Russo-Turkish War with the intent of
     creating a a**Greater Bulgariaa** with sea access in both the Black Sea
     and the Aegean Sea. The Russian plan for an enlarged Bulgaria, which
     would have given Russia friendly ports in the Mediterranean, backfired
     by alarming Western powers who were forced to intervene, albeit
     diplomatically, during the 1878 Berlin Congress and thus greatly reduced
     Bulgariaa**s territory.

     Russia and Bulgaria continued to have a strong relationship throughout
     the 20th Century despite Bulgariaa**s decision to side with the Central
     Powers in the First World War and subsequently the Axis in the Second.
     As an example of its strong link to Moscow, Bulgaria refused to join the
     attack against the Soviet Union despite being officially allied with
     Nazi Germany. The subsequent communist period in Bulgaria, while not
     remembered with nostalgia, does not elicit the same kind of knee jerk
     anti-Russian feelings as in much the rest of Central and Eastern Europe.
     Bulgaria was a loyal member of the Soviet Bloc with no uprisings against
     Moscowa**s regional hegemony.

     The oft stated reason for Bulgariaa**s affinity towards Russia are the
     cultural and religious ties between the two countries and these
     certainly work well to grease the wheels of the relationship.  However,
     in reality, Bulgariaa**s interests are rooted in its geopolitical
     circumstances. Surrounded by entities who have historically been
     stronger and sometimes outright aggressive towards it -- namely
     Turkey/Ottoman Empire to the South, Romania to the north and
     Yugoslavia/Serbia to the West, Bulgaria has often relied on Russia to
     play the role of its protector and champion in the region.  Meanwhile,
     from the Russian perspective, Bulgaria affords it a foothold in the
     Balkans, much more reliable than the often too independently minded
     Serbia and Romania, both of which had plans of their own to become
     regional hegemons. 

     Borisova**s initial moves against Russian projects in Bulgaria should
     therefore not be taken to signal a fundamental shift in Bulgariaa**s
     relations with Russia. Borisova**s government may temper some of the
     overt signs of this strong relationship, but his move to freeze progress
     on South Stream and the Belene power plant is more likely about rooting
     out his predecessora**s control of those lucrative projects than about
     fundamentally moving Bulgaria away from Russia.  Once Borisov feels that
     he and his power base are sufficiently in control of all aspects of the
     Sofia-Moscow relationship, it is very likely that Bulgaria will continue
     to be one of Russia's strongest allies within the EU and NATO.
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-27 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1677951_re-analysis-for-comment-bulgaria-russia-anti-russian.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1681491,"Re: INSIGHT - France's change of heart
","   Can we confirm they are talking about Total? Don't forget the EDF and GDF
   deals with SouthStream, NorthStream respectively... Those deals happened
   pretty close to the Kouchner statement to be coincidence... It's just too
   much at the same time, it reeks of coordination.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Lauren Goodrich\" <goodrich@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>, \"Aaron Colvin\"
   <aaron.colvin@stratfor.com>, \"Secure List\" <secure@stratfor.com>, \"George
   Friedman\" <gfriedman@stratfor.com>, \"Eugene Chausovsky\"
   <eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com>, \"Catherine Durbin\"
   <catherine.durbin@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, September 22, 2009 11:02:07 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT - France's change of heart

   Gotcha.

    

   From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, September 22, 2009 11:42 AM
   To: Kamran Bokhari
   Cc: 'Reva Bhalla'; 'Aaron Colvin'; 'Secure List'; 'George Friedman';
   'Eugene Chausovsky'; 'Catherine Durbin'
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - France's change of heart

    

   Monster = Total ... all the energy giants are called monsters in Russia,
   it is a joke that makes no sense

   Kamran Bokhari wrote:

   Monster= Sarko?

    

   From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, September 22, 2009 11:03 AM
   To: Reva Bhalla
   Cc: Aaron Colvin; Secure List; George Friedman; Eugene Chausovsky;
   Catherine Durbin
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - France's change of heart

    

   not yet

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

   but do we know what Russia did to pressure Total?

    

   On Sep 22, 2009, at 10:00 AM, Aaron Colvin wrote:

   **decided to keep my entire BB conversation on this, so you could see my
   questions.

   CODE: RU108
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Moscow
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: senior at Putina**s think-group
   SOURCES LEVEL: high
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   DISSEMINATION: Secure, George, Eugene, Catherine
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   LG: The French seem to have a change of heart today in continuing their
   cheerleading of the sanctions. Know what changed their heart?
    
   RU108: They had some nice conversations this week.
    
   LG: Putin set them straight?
    
   RU108: Yes. And their own monster doesna**t want to be part of the US
   plans.
    
   LG: So Total also pressuring Sarko?
    
   RU108: We had a nice chat with them too. Yachts are good for that sort of
   thing.
    
   LG: Ah, got it. So ya**all got to both Paris and Total.
    
   RU108: It isna**t absolute. They want to be part of this moment. But they
   are not blindly following anymore.
    
   LG: So France is weighing all its options right now.
    
   RU108: Your leader has built a house of cards.
    
    
    
    

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

    

    

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

    

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1681491_re-insight-france-s-change-of-heart-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,goodrich@stratfor.com,bokhari@stratfor.com,reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,catherine.durbin@stratfor.com,eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com,aaron.colvin@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
1681746,"Re: Assange is off the hook...
","   If it really matters I can look in to it, but from what I am hearing that
   is not the case. 
   That's not to say that my friend is foolproof either. She knows nothing of
   law or politics, she just knows the girl in question and follows the
   news. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:57:59 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   It is about rape. They asked him to use a condom, but he apparently likes
   unprotected sex.

   Sweden has very low threshold for what constitutes rape by the way,
   according to a lawyer friend.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Chris Farnham\" <chris.farnham@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:42:16 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   Is it possible to revoke some one's citizenship on the grounds of them
   being a total dickhead? 
   I don't care about the other leaks but the ones he has made that
   potentially damage Australian interests upset me. 
   If I thought I could switch this dickhead off without getting done I don't
   think I'd have too much of a problem.
   BTW, close family friend in Sweden who knows the girl that is pressing
   charges tells me that there is absolutely nothing behind it other than
   prosecutors that are looking to make a name for themselves. My friend
   speaks rather disparagingly about the girl who is claiming molestation. I
   also think the whole rape thing is incorrect for if I remember correctly
   rape was never the charge. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, December 6, 2010 12:23:03 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   What a douche.

   And I just want to be clear here... I have no problem with the leaks. I
   think they're great. And I think it may be good on some level to have
   stuff like this come out once in a while. What I can't stand is A) his ego
   trip and B) his clear anti-Americanism. Take the time to read the intro to
   Cablegate when you get the chance. This guy hates America more than OBL.

   What I love, however, is how nobody in the U.S. is mad about the cables.
   Hell, I have a better opinion of State Department diplomats now than I did
   before the cables. They actually said a few smart things here and there. I
   actually gave them a tip of my hat.

   I want to see him try to take on the Russians. He'd be going bald in an
   Iceland hospital within days.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Sunday, December 5, 2010 10:11:39 PM
   Subject: Re: Assange is off the hook...

   should we change our Stratfor motto now?
   Predictive, insightful intelligence...in a post-Cablegate world.
   On Dec 5, 2010, at 10:05 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     This guy needs to take pills for his ego:

      He suggested, not for the first time, that he believes his document
      service has had a profound effect on world history: a**I believe
      geopolitics will be separated into pre- and post-Cablegate phases.a**

     Also, I have a question about this part (this is Assange's lawyer saying
     how Wikileaks would release full versions of all files -- including
     names of spies, etc. -- if harmed):

      WikiLeaks, Mr. Stephens said, has a**been subject to cyberattacks and
      censorship around the world and they need to protect themselves ... This
      is what they believe to be a thermonuclear device in the information
      age.a**

     Let's say the following scenario happens. Assange is arrested and
     extradicted to Sweden to face rape charges. Wikileaks releases the
     password to the insurance files. Would he not then be directly
     endangering U.S. and other country intelligence professionals? Would it
     not then be possible to prosecute him for espionage? 

     -- 
     - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
     Marko Papic
     Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
     STRATFOR
     700 Lavaca Street - 900
     Austin, Texas
     78701 USA
     P: + 1-512-744-4094
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-06 06:01:04",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1681746_re-assange-is-off-the-hook-.html","chris.farnham@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1683919,"Re: INSIGHT BATCH 1
","   Glad you like it!

   Thaere is some cool stuff i there..

   By the way, did you like the story the Belarusssians told me? About
   children and tanks?

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Eugene Chausovsky\" <eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Friday, October 2, 2009 2:02:28 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT BATCH 1

   Wow, this is some interesting stuff...the Sanader bit is crazy (though
   expected).

   Marko Papic wrote:

       ------------------------------------------------------------------

     Subject:                                                                 
     INSIGHT - CROATIAN MP RESIGNS                                            
     From:                                                                    
     Marko Papic <marko.papic@stratfor.com>                                   
     Date:                                                                    
     Thu, 17 Sep 2009 18:23:53 -0500 (CDT)                                    
     To:                                                                      
     secure <secure@stratfor.com>                                             

     To:                                                                      
     secure <secure@stratfor.com>                                             

     SOURCE CODE: SW501 (SW501 is a very well connected Swedish MEP with
     extremely close links to both the FM Carl Bildt -- his closest ally
     basically -- and the Balkans).
     PUBLICATION: No
     ATTRIBUTION:
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: NA
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: NA
     SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Secure
     SOURCE HANDLER: Marko

     Source tells us that Ivo Sanader, Croatian PM, resigned because of OC.
     Basically, he had some deal going on with the Ploce port, that is where
     Croatia is supposed to build an LNG terminal. He basically got in good
     with the OC and they told him that he had a choice to either retire from
     politics, or else they'd start killing off his family.

     He followed their orders.

     Note that I have been saying (and writing in analyses) that Croatia is
     absolutely run by OC. The country is stuffed to the brim with OC. The
     problem is that the Yugoslav Civil Wars had a serious effect on the
     entire region, allowing war profiteers to essentially continue running
     OC activities after the war. Serbia also has OC, but it is not as
     powerful as Croatia's because the assassination of Djindjic gave the
     state the impetus to clean most of the really powerful OC elements off.

       ------------------------------------------------------------------

     Subject:                                                                 
     INSIGHT - SLOVENIA/CROATIA: How they made up                             
     From:                                                                    
     Marko Papic <marko.papic@stratfor.com>                                   
     Date:                                                                    
     Thu, 17 Sep 2009 19:19:14 -0500 (CDT)                                    
     To:                                                                      
     secure <secure@stratfor.com>                                             

     To:                                                                      
     secure <secure@stratfor.com>                                             

     SOURCE CODE: SW501 (SW501 is a very well connected Swedish MEP with
     extremely close links to both the FM Carl Bildt -- his closest ally
     basically -- and the Balkans).
     PUBLICATION: No
     ATTRIBUTION:
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: NA
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: NA
     SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Secure
     SOURCE HANDLER: Marko
     According to the Swedish MEP who essentially runs all the Balkan stuff
     for Swedish FM, the key issue for continuing enlargement has been
     separating the Turkish accession process from the rest of the Balkans.
     Bildt has worked VERY hard on this issue, he essentially invited Iceland
     and gave them a green light precisely to illustrate to Germany and
     France that there is Turkish enlargement and then there is OTHER kind of
     enlargement. So the Iceland move was key.

     Once Iceland \"green light\" convinced Germany and France that this is
     possible to do, Berlin put pressure on Slovenia to let Croatia have its
     chance. This was also confirmed by CRO501 (the Croatian Ambassador to
     EU). He also said that Croatia had already offered to Slovenia what
     Zagreb gave them on Monday, so that it really did come down to the
     German pressure.

     Swedish MEP did say that both in Croatia and Macedonia's case, the
     bilateral disputes with Slovenia and Greece (respectively) play a very
     key role in allowing Zagreb and Skoplje to delay. The point is that on
     issues that Croatia and Macedonia don't want to integrate with the EU,
     they can drag their feet and then blame Slovenia and Greece for it. So
     we need to also look at that side of the coin.

     1.       Slovenian acceptance of Croatian accession

     a.       According the Swedish MEP, the key was Swedish ability to
     separate Turkey from Balkan accession. This is viewed as a key stumbling
     block for further expansion of the European Union.

     b.      The green light to Iceland is key part of this strategy. By
     giving an immediate green light to Iceland, Stockholm has been able to
     separate the two issues from one another.

     c.       Pressure was then placed on Slovenia to relent. This is
     confirmed by Croatian Ambassador to the EU, who said that what Zagreb
     gave Slovenia was in part offered in some form or another before.

     d.      But, Swedish MEP countered that at issue here was also stalling
     on part of Zagreb. For both Macedonia and Croatia, the Slovenia/Greece
     issue is just a useful tactic to hold back on required reforms and to
     blame a**thema** for why it is taking so long.

       ------------------------------------------------------------------

     Subject:                                                                 
     INSIGHT - EU: Enlargement Fatigue                                        
     From:                                                                    
     Marko Papic <marko.papic@stratfor.com>                                   
     Date:                                                                    
     Thu, 17 Sep 2009 19:23:34 -0500 (CDT)                                    
     To:                                                                      
     secure <secure@stratfor.com>                                             

     To:                                                                      
     secure <secure@stratfor.com>                                             

     SOURCE CODE: SW501 (SW501 is a very well connected Swedish MEP with
     extremely close links to both the FM Carl Bildt -- his closest ally
     basically -- and the Balkans).
     PUBLICATION: No
     ATTRIBUTION:
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: NA
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: NA
     SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Secure
     SOURCE HANDLER: Marko

     This is insight not just from Swedish MEP in charge of Balkan
     enlargement, but others as well.

     Basically, enlargement is dead. The Swedish Presidency, Carl Bildt
     personally, want to see each of the Balkan states make a step forward
     towards accession (one step minimum) during their presidency. Bildt of
     course had a very important role in the Balkans in the past, so he is a
     key player on this.

     However, Germany and France have totally stopped enlargement. The
     Swedish MEP I talked to fought very hard to have a resolution pass
     before this new parliament that said that rejection of Lisbon would NOT
     endanger enlargement. So that resolution passed. But she said that this
     current parliament would not be able to vote that resolution through
     because it is so right wing.

     The move to the right is very key, because it symbolically illustrates
     that enlargement is one of the things nobody wants to talk about. The
     French and German MEPs (who run the parliament according to most people
     I talked to) are especially opposed. Sweden is hoping for more
     enlargement because they tend to have very good relations with countries
     that they bring into the EU, it is a way to get more allies against
     France and Germany.

       ------------------------------------------------------------------

     Subject:                                                                 
     INSIGHT - SWEDEN: Carl Bildt                                             
     From:                                                                    
     Marko Papic <marko.papic@stratfor.com>                                   
     Date:                                                                    
     Thu, 17 Sep 2009 19:29:58 -0500 (CDT)                                    
     To:                                                                      
     secure <secure@stratfor.com>                                             

     To:                                                                      
     secure <secure@stratfor.com>                                             

     SOURCE CODE: SW501 (SW501 is a very well connected Swedish MEP with
     extremely close links to both the FM Carl Bildt -- his closest ally
     basically -- and the Balkans).
     PUBLICATION: No
     ATTRIBUTION:
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: NA
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: NA
     SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Secure
     SOURCE HANDLER: Marko

     I got a lot of info on Carl Bildt. Our Swedish MEP contact is basically
     his main ally. Bildt is apparently super tall, has photographic memory
     and is very smart. He has a very rocky relationship with the current
     Prime Minister because Reinfeldt was the youth leader of the Moderate
     Party when Bildt was the Prime Minister briefly and the two did not get
     along.

     Bildt believes that Sweden should become a world power. He talks a lot
     about the traditional sphere of Swedish influence in the Baltic (sort of
     like our monograph). From his experiences in the Balkans he has decided
     that he does not like Croats and Albanians.

     He is also very critical of Russia. He called Putin a \"chetnik\" in the
     middle of a meeting with an MEP group. He is essentially a personna non
     grata in Moscow. He is also at odds with Sarkozy because before Sweden
     received its EU Presidency he essentially told the French not to pull
     the same stuff they did with Czech Republic.

     He is very involved with enlargement. Sweden sees enlargement as a way
     to break the German-Frenc stranglehold on the EU. His personal goal is
     to see every Balkan state make one step forward towards accession during
     his premiership.

     I did meet his wife, who is also an MEP in the Parliament. She is
     apparently Italian and does not speak really good Swedish, so she
     couldn't get into the Swedish parliament. Instead, she campaigned for
     the European and got in.
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-29 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1683919_re-insight-batch-1-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com",""
1686093,"Did Mossad kill German politician involved in Iran-Contra scandal?
","       Did Mossad kill German politician involved in Iran-Contra scandal?

   Posted on November 22, 2010 by intelNews| Leave a comment
   Uwe           Barschel

   Uwe Barschel

   By JOSEPH FITSANAKIS  | intelNews.org |
   Accusations of Israeli involvement in the suspicious death of a German
   politician have been revived, following new autopsy evidence revealed by a
   medical examiner. The case involves the death of Christian Democratic
   Union politician Uwe Barschel, who on October 11, 1987, was found dead in
   the bathtub of room 317 of the Beau-Rivage hotel in Geneva, Switzerland.
   His sudden death occurred less than a month after he was forced to resign
   from the post of Governor of West Germany's Schleswig-Holstein state,
   following his involvement in a dirty-tricks campaign against his rival
   Bjo:rn Engholm, of Germany's Social Democratic Party. Swiss authorities,
   based on an initial postmortem that revealed lethal levels of barbiturates
   in Barschel's system, ruled the death a suicide. But now Dr Hans
   Brandenberger, who was one of the toxicological experts that examined
   Barschel, claims that he is possession of new evidence that points to
   murder as the cause of the German politician's death. Speaking on Sunday
   to Germany's quality Welt am Sonntag broadsheet, Dr Brandenberger said
   that computer analysis of the original 1987 autopsy data makes it \"next to
   certain that Barschel was injected with [the strong sedative] Noludar
   shortly before his death through the rectum\". The toxicologist claims that
   the strong tranquilizer was part of a complex cocktail of drugs that was
   force-fed to the German politician after he was sedated, probably with the
   help of a spiked drink. Dr Brandenberger's allegations have breathed new
   life to claims that Barschel was in fact murdered by Israeli intelligence
   agency Mossad, who targeted him because of his inside knowledge of
   Iran-Contra scandal dealings. Specifically, Barschel is said to have known
   about an alleged transfer of Israeli military aircraft to the Islamic
   Republic of Iran, facilitated under United States oversight through German
   mediators. Following his resignation from his governor post, he had
   threatened to publicize insider accounts of the alleged transfer. During
   the Iran-Contra Scandal (1985-1986), Israel acted as Washington's conduit
   in supplying US-made weapons to Iran and then channeling the profits to
   the Contras paramilitary mercenaries fighting Nicaragua's Sandinista
   government. Incidentally, Israel did so in full knowledge of the fact that
   the Iranian government was at that time the primary military supplier of
   Palestinian militant group Hamas.

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2010-11-22 18:01:23",1,"2012-08-05 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1686093_did-mossad-kill-german-politician-involved-in-iran-contra.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","ct@stratfor.com","attach/125/125556_first-post5.jpg"
1687728,"Re: INSIGHT - TURKMENISTAN - new daddy warbucks
","   Yeah, think about it... the financial \"groundwork\" does not in any way
   shape or form easily translate into military framework... You're talking
   about Russia's soft underbelly. If this was Africa, or Latin America, or
   some equally distant place where the Beijing and Moscow were starting off
   on the same level, I would agree with you Reva.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Rodger Baker\" <rbaker@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>, \"Lauren Goodrich\"
   <goodrich@stratfor.com>, \"Secure List\" <secure@stratfor.com>, \"Eugene
   Chausovsky\" <eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, June 23, 2009 11:19:42 AM GMT -05:00 Colombia
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - TURKMENISTAN - new daddy warbucks

   its gonna take a hell of a paradigm shift for the chinese to deploy troops
   into central asia to take on the russians. 
   On Jun 23, 2009, at 11:16 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     if China lays the financial groundwork now in Central Asia, what stops
     Beijing from raising that to a military level down the line?   Would it
     necessarily be deterred by the Russians every time?
     On Jun 23, 2009, at 11:15 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

       Again though, Russia feels that it can... on a long enough of a
       timeline... overcome any Chinese influence built up by loans to the
       region. I am not saying that this PoV is going to prove correct for
       Russia, just that this is how Russia thinks. 

       Therefore, how is this latest Chinese loan any different from Chinese
       presence in the region in the past 5 years. Russia has allowed all of
       it to come to pass because they feel they can swoop in and reap the
       benefits at a later point when the investments bear fruits. 

       The question there is whether that is the point when Russia and China
       start having some real beef... whether such conflict is \"built-in\" by
       the Russian attitude right now. But that is an alltogether different
       question. 

       ----- Original Message -----
       From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
       To: \"Rodger Baker\" <rbaker@stratfor.com>
       Cc: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>, \"Lauren Goodrich\"
       <goodrich@stratfor.com>, \"Secure List\" <secure@stratfor.com>, \"Eugene
       Chausovsky\" <eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com>
       Sent: Tuesday, June 23, 2009 11:10:37 AM GMT -05:00 Colombia
       Subject: Re: INSIGHT - TURKMENISTAN - new daddy warbucks

       I asked the same thing. Lauren said separate. and turkmenistan isn't
       in SCO
       On Jun 23, 2009, at 11:09 AM, Rodger Baker wrote:

         china was never harmless, though, which is what I was saying. But
         russia would allow China to play around because eventually perhaps
         Russia still has the upper hand in influence, and can gain more
         control over assets in region. That said, China is making numerous
         cash offers - do we know, for example, if this loan is under the
         recent deal China announced at SCO or separate? 
         But what will russia do in return? it aint gonna attack china. it
         did (again) delay its pipeline in the north to China. 
         On Jun 23, 2009, at 11:07 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

           it's thrown money, but we're in a slightly different context now.
           The region is getting hammered by the financial crisis and Russia
           has gone out of its way to screw turkmenistan. Then here comes
           China to the rescue.
           that's not very harmless from moscow's PoV, at least in my mind
           On Jun 23, 2009, at 10:56 AM, Rodger Baker wrote:

             Careful?
             China has thrown money after central asia. it is only careful in
             that it doesnt send troops like russia does. 
             On Jun 23, 2009, at 10:52 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

               now how does this balance out with Russian security guarantees
               for the Central Asians?
               China has always been very careful in treading on Moscow's
               turf. Isn't this the kind of thing that would escalate
               tensions?
               On Jun 23, 2009, at 10:49 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

                 Nice, the Chinese are a real alternative to BOTH IMF and
                 Russia... plus they have more money essentially than both. 

                 Eugene, take note of this situation... Good to maybe mention
                 in the overall Russian loan piece. 

                 ----- Original Message -----
                 From: \"Lauren Goodrich\" <goodrich@stratfor.com>
                 To: \"Secure List\" <secure@stratfor.com>, \"Eugene Chausovsky\"
                 <eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com>
                 Sent: Tuesday, June 23, 2009 10:24:02 AM GMT -05:00 Colombia
                 Subject: INSIGHT - TURKMENISTAN - new daddy warbucks

                 I literally and accidentally ran into the Turkmen energy
                 minister in the swimming pool today while we were both doing
                 lapsa*| we got to talking on the side of the pool. (no code
                 bc he won't be a regular source of course)
                   
                 We started off lightly talking about who is getting projects
                 in the country with him confirming Russia snagging a lot of
                 the infrastructure, but that China is getting some very real
                 projects like South Yolotan field which he says holds 6 tcm
                 (which would make it one of the top 5 deposits in the
                 world). China will pay $3 billion for it. 
                   
                 Then I brought up the continued Russian cut-off of natural
                 gas. He said that hea**ll return to Ashgabat on Thursday
                 where hea**ll be in meetings with Beredimukhammedov and
                 Zubkov(who is pretty much in charge of Russo-Turkmen
                 relations for the Kremlin now). Zubkov is already in
                 Ashgabat and is planning on staying a**as long as needed to
                 get things sorteda** with the Turkmen. 
                   
                 I asked if thing could get sorted with Russia in a hell of a
                 position and not budging yet. He said he did not know but
                 that when he talked to Berdimukhammedov about the Russians
                 that the prez was a**furiousa** at Russiaa**s gall to treat
                 them this way. 
                   
                 I then very uncomfortably brought up the fact that theya**re
                 losing a billion a month and that this could potentially
                 bankrupt their country. He smiled really big and said that
                 they would be just fine. That their situation looked
                 terrible this past month. Turkmen FM Meredov had gone and
                 talked to the Europeans a few weeks ago to see if they had
                 any solutions (meaning IMF loans, etc.), but that they were
                 no help at all. 
                   
                 So Meredov went to China last week striking the Yolotan
                 deal, but also another deal in which China would a**loana**
                 Turkemenistan $3-5 billion. The terms have not been
                 finalized, but China said they could get them the cash
                 quickly, which is what Ashgabat needs.
                 -- 
                 Lauren Goodrich
                 Director of Analysis
                 Senior Eurasia Analyst
                 STRATFOR
                 T: 512.744.4311
                 F: 512.744.4334
                 lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
                 www.stratfor.com
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1687728_re-insight-turkmenistan-new-daddy-warbucks-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","rbaker@stratfor.com,goodrich@stratfor.com,reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
1689669,"ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian Bulgaria?
 Don't get your hopes up!
","   Link: themeData
   Link: colorSchemeMapping

   I had to cut out a LOT of info we have on Borisov simply because I am not
   sure which bits could get us into legal trouble. Nonetheless, a lot of
   that stuff is also weedy, so I think a broader geopolitical discussion is
   not out of place.

   Newly elected Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Boyko Borisov, has in a letter
   on July 13 asked the Economy and Energy Minister Petar Dimitrov to
   temporarily freeze the construction of the Belene nuclear power plant and
   the development of the South Stream natural gas pipeline project. Borisov
   claimed in the letter that the Bulgarian state owned companies involved in
   the two projects were not taking into account the economic crisis in their
   operations, hinting at financial malfeasance. Both the Belene nuclear
   power plant and the South Stream project are being developed in
   cooperation with Russian state owned enterprises, Atomstroyexport and
   Gazprom respectively.

   Russian influence in Bulgaria has always been considered as robust and the
   government of outgoing prime minister Sergei Stanishev did nothing to
   dispel that notion, despite Sofiaa**s entry into the EU in 2007 under his
   leadership and the fact that it had been a member of NATO since 2004.
   Bulgariaa**s relatively eager participation in the South Stream project
   a** Russian alternative to the EUa**s Nabucco project a** has been lauded
   as an example of the close collaboration between Moscow and Sofia and
   proof of Bulgariaa**s a**Trojan Horsea** status within the Western
   Alliance.

   Borisova**s actions, one of his first as incoming prime minister, to
   freeze progress on the two major Russian projects within Bulgaria seem to
   suggest that he will stick to his campaign promise to play by a**EU
   rulesa** on energy policy and reverse his opponenta**s policies of cozying
   up to Russia. He also campaigned that he would not be beholden to Moscow
   and that he would treat Russia just like any other power, thus ending the
   special relationship enjoyed by Sofia and Moscow under Stanisheva**s
   government.

   However, the warm relations between Bulgaria and Russia are not a modern
   phenomenon, nor are they beholden to any particular governmenta**s
   policies. The relationship is rooted in geopolitics and has withstood the
   test of time from the 19th Century until today.

   Bulgaria owes its independence from the Ottoman Empire in late 19th
   Century to Russia which fought the Russo-Turkish War with the intent of
   creating a a**Greater Bulgariaa** with sea access in both the Black Sea
   and the Aegean Sea. The Russian plan for an enlarged Bulgaria, which would
   have given Russia friendly ports in the Mediterranean, backfired by
   alarming Western powers who were forced to intervene, albeit
   diplomatically, during the 1878 Berlin Congress and thus greatly reduced
   Bulgariaa**s territory.

   Russia and Bulgaria continued to have a strong relationship throughout the
   20th Century despite Bulgariaa**s decision to side with the Central Powers
   in the First World War and subsequently the Axis in the Second. As an
   example of its strong link to Moscow, Bulgaria refused to join the attack
   against the Soviet Union despite being officially allied with Nazi
   Germany. The subsequent communist period in Bulgaria, while not remembered
   with nostalgia, does not elicit the same kind of knee jerk anti-Russian
   feelings as in much the rest of Central and Eastern Europe. Bulgaria was a
   loyal member of the Soviet Bloc with no uprisings against Moscowa**s
   regional hegemony.

   The oft stated reason for Bulgariaa**s affinity towards Russia are the
   cultural and religious ties between the two countries and these certainly
   work well to grease the wheels of the relationship.  However, in reality,
   Bulgariaa**s interests are rooted in its geopolitical circumstances.
   Surrounded by entities who have historically been stronger and sometimes
   outright aggressive towards it -- namely Turkey/Ottoman Empire to the
   South, Romania to the north and Yugoslavia/Serbia to the West, Bulgaria
   has often relied on Russia to play the role of its protector and champion
   in the region.  Meanwhile, from the Russian perspective, Bulgaria affords
   it a foothold in the Balkans, much more reliable than the often too
   independently minded Serbia and Romania, both of which had plans of their
   own to become regional hegemons. 

   Borisova**s initial moves against Russian projects in Bulgaria should
   therefore not be taken to signal a fundamental shift in Bulgariaa**s
   relations with Russia. Borisova**s government may temper some of the overt
   signs of this strong relationship, but his move to freeze progress on
   South Stream and the Belene power plant is more likely about rooting out
   his predecessora**s control of those lucrative projects than about
   fundamentally moving Bulgaria away from Russia.  Once Borisov feels that
   he and his power base are sufficiently in control of all aspects of the
   Sofia-Moscow relationship, it is very likely that Bulgaria will continue
   to be one of Russia's strongest allies within the EU and NATO.
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-27 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1689669_analysis-for-comment-bulgaria-russia-anti-russian-bulgaria.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1689696,"Re: ANALYST FOR EDIT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian Bulgaria?
 Don't get your hopes up!
","   on it; eta for fact check: 5-5:30 (juggling edits)

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   To: \"analysts\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, July 13, 2009 3:59:38 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: ANALYST FOR EDIT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian Bulgaria? Don't
   get your hopes up!

   For posting tomorrow morning...

   Note to copyeditor: CHRIS, as our resident Bulgarian expert, please feel
   free to change anything you may think needs changing, but do let me check
   it out before it posts in that case. I will be online at the usual 6:30am,
   so I should be available for any chat you may want to have.

   Newly elected Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Boyko Borisov, has in a letter
   on July 13 asked the Economy and Energy Minister Petar Dimitrov to
   temporarily freeze the construction of the Belene nuclear power plant and
   the development of the South Stream natural gas pipeline project. Borisov
   claimed in the letter that the Bulgarian state owned companies involved in
   the two projects were not taking into account the economic crisis in their
   operations, hinting at financial malfeasance. Both the Belene nuclear
   power plant and the South Stream project are being developed in
   cooperation with Russian state owned enterprises, Atomstroyexport and
   Gazprom respectively.

   Russian influence in Bulgaria has always been considered as robust and the
   government of outgoing prime minister Sergei Stanishev did nothing to
   dispel that notion, despite Sofiaa**s entry into the EU in 2007 under his
   leadership and the fact that it had been a member of NATO since 2004.
   Bulgaria was seen as a key target for NATO and EU membership so that the
   West could block off the rest of the Balkans from Russian influence. From
   Sofiaa**s perspective, with its traditional ally Russia weakened
   throughout the 1990s and in early 2000s, there seemed to be no alternative
   to the Western alliances which promised investment and development.
   Bulgariaa**s relatively eager participation in the South Stream project
   a** Russian alternative to the EUa**s Nabucco project a** however, has
   been lauded as an example of the continuing close collaboration between
   Moscow and Sofia and proof of Bulgariaa**s a**Trojan Horsea** status
   within the Western alliances, a staunch Russian ally that West was eager,
   perhaps too eager, to envelop within its sphere.

   Borisova**s actions, one of his first as incoming prime minister, to
   freeze progress on the two major Russian projects within Bulgaria seem to
   suggest that he will stick to his campaign promise to play by a**EU
   rulesa** on energy policy and reverse his opponenta**s policies of cozying
   up to Russia. He also campaigned on the idea that he would not be beholden
   to Moscow and that he would treat Russia just like any other power, thus
   ending any semblance of a special relationship between the EU member
   Bulgaria and Russia enjoyed under Stanisheva**s government.

   However, the warm relations between Bulgaria and Russia are not a modern
   phenomenon, nor are they beholden to any particular governmenta**s
   policies. The relationship is rooted in geopolitics and has withstood the
   test of time from the 19th Century until today.

   Bulgaria owes its independence from the Ottoman Empire in late 19th
   Century to Russia which fought the Russo-Turkish War with the intent of
   creating a a**Greater Bulgariaa** with sea access in both the Black Sea
   and the Aegean Sea. The Russian plan for an enlarged Bulgaria, which would
   have given Russia friendly ports in the Mediterranean, backfired when
   Western Powers alarmed by the prospect intervened, albeit diplomatically,
   and greatly reduced Bulgariaa**s territory in the 1878 Berlin Congress.

   Russia and Bulgaria continued to have a strong relationship throughout the
   20th Century despite Bulgariaa**s decision to side with the Central Powers
   in the First World War and subsequently the Axis in the Second. As an
   example of its strong link to Moscow, Bulgaria refused to join the attack
   against the Soviet Union despite being officially allied with Nazi
   Germany. The subsequent communist period in Bulgaria, while not remembered
   with nostalgia, does not elicit the same kind of knee jerk anti-Russian
   feelings as in much the rest of Central and Eastern Europe. Bulgaria was a
   loyal member of the Soviet Bloc with no uprisings against Moscowa**s
   regional hegemony.

   The oft stated reason for Bulgariaa**s affinity towards Russia are the
   cultural and religious ties between the two countries and these certainly
   work well to grease the wheels of the relationship.  However, in reality,
   Bulgariaa**s interests are rooted in its geopolitical circumstances.
   Surrounded by entities who have historically been stronger and sometimes
   outright aggressive towards it -- namely Turkey/Ottoman Empire to the
   South, Romania to the north and Yugoslavia/Serbia to the West, Bulgaria
   has often relied on Russia to play the role of its protector and champion
   in the region.  Meanwhile, from the Russian perspective, Bulgaria affords
   it a foothold in the Balkans, much more reliable than the often too
   independently minded Serbia and Romania, both of which have/had plans of
   their own to become regional hegemons. Furthermore, Bulgaria, when overtly
   allied with Russia, affords Moscow control of essentially the entire
   non-Turkish controlled Black Sea coastline.

   Borisova**s initial moves against Russian projects in Bulgaria should
   therefore not be taken to signal a fundamental shift in Bulgariaa**s
   relations with Russia. Borisova**s government may temper some of the overt
   signs of this strong relationship, and recommit Sofia towards its Western
   Alliances. However, Borisova**s moves to freeze progress on South Stream
   and the Belene power plant are more likely about rooting out his
   predecessora**s control of those lucrative projects than about
   fundamentally moving Bulgaria away from Russia.

    

    

    

    

     
","2009-07-13 23:01:22",1,"2012-02-27 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1689696_re-analyst-for-edit-bulgaria-russia-anti-russian-bulgaria.html","blackburn@stratfor.com","","writers@stratfor.com,marko.papic@stratfor.com",""
1690024,"ANALYST FOR EDIT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian Bulgaria? Don't
 get your hopes up!
","   Link: themeData
   Link: colorSchemeMapping

   For posting tomorrow morning...

   Note to copyeditor: CHRIS, as our resident Bulgarian expert, please feel
   free to change anything you may think needs changing, but do let me check
   it out before it posts in that case. I will be online at the usual 6:30am,
   so I should be available for any chat you may want to have.

   Newly elected Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Boyko Borisov, has in a letter
   on July 13 asked the Economy and Energy Minister Petar Dimitrov to
   temporarily freeze the construction of the Belene nuclear power plant and
   the development of the South Stream natural gas pipeline project. Borisov
   claimed in the letter that the Bulgarian state owned companies involved in
   the two projects were not taking into account the economic crisis in their
   operations, hinting at financial malfeasance. Both the Belene nuclear
   power plant and the South Stream project are being developed in
   cooperation with Russian state owned enterprises, Atomstroyexport and
   Gazprom respectively.

   Russian influence in Bulgaria has always been considered as robust and the
   government of outgoing prime minister Sergei Stanishev did nothing to
   dispel that notion, despite Sofiaa**s entry into the EU in 2007 under his
   leadership and the fact that it had been a member of NATO since 2004.
   Bulgaria was seen as a key target for NATO and EU membership so that the
   West could block off the rest of the Balkans from Russian influence. From
   Sofiaa**s perspective, with its traditional ally Russia weakened
   throughout the 1990s and in early 2000s, there seemed to be no alternative
   to the Western alliances which promised investment and development.
   Bulgariaa**s relatively eager participation in the South Stream project
   a** Russian alternative to the EUa**s Nabucco project a** however, has
   been lauded as an example of the continuing close collaboration between
   Moscow and Sofia and proof of Bulgariaa**s a**Trojan Horsea** status
   within the Western alliances, a staunch Russian ally that West was eager,
   perhaps too eager, to envelop within its sphere.

   Borisova**s actions, one of his first as incoming prime minister, to
   freeze progress on the two major Russian projects within Bulgaria seem to
   suggest that he will stick to his campaign promise to play by a**EU
   rulesa** on energy policy and reverse his opponenta**s policies of cozying
   up to Russia. He also campaigned on the idea that he would not be beholden
   to Moscow and that he would treat Russia just like any other power, thus
   ending any semblance of a special relationship between the EU member
   Bulgaria and Russia enjoyed under Stanisheva**s government.

   However, the warm relations between Bulgaria and Russia are not a modern
   phenomenon, nor are they beholden to any particular governmenta**s
   policies. The relationship is rooted in geopolitics and has withstood the
   test of time from the 19th Century until today.

   Bulgaria owes its independence from the Ottoman Empire in late 19th
   Century to Russia which fought the Russo-Turkish War with the intent of
   creating a a**Greater Bulgariaa** with sea access in both the Black Sea
   and the Aegean Sea. The Russian plan for an enlarged Bulgaria, which would
   have given Russia friendly ports in the Mediterranean, backfired when
   Western Powers alarmed by the prospect intervened, albeit diplomatically,
   and greatly reduced Bulgariaa**s territory in the 1878 Berlin Congress.

   Russia and Bulgaria continued to have a strong relationship throughout the
   20th Century despite Bulgariaa**s decision to side with the Central Powers
   in the First World War and subsequently the Axis in the Second. As an
   example of its strong link to Moscow, Bulgaria refused to join the attack
   against the Soviet Union despite being officially allied with Nazi
   Germany. The subsequent communist period in Bulgaria, while not remembered
   with nostalgia, does not elicit the same kind of knee jerk anti-Russian
   feelings as in much the rest of Central and Eastern Europe. Bulgaria was a
   loyal member of the Soviet Bloc with no uprisings against Moscowa**s
   regional hegemony.

   The oft stated reason for Bulgariaa**s affinity towards Russia are the
   cultural and religious ties between the two countries and these certainly
   work well to grease the wheels of the relationship.  However, in reality,
   Bulgariaa**s interests are rooted in its geopolitical circumstances.
   Surrounded by entities who have historically been stronger and sometimes
   outright aggressive towards it -- namely Turkey/Ottoman Empire to the
   South, Romania to the north and Yugoslavia/Serbia to the West, Bulgaria
   has often relied on Russia to play the role of its protector and champion
   in the region.  Meanwhile, from the Russian perspective, Bulgaria affords
   it a foothold in the Balkans, much more reliable than the often too
   independently minded Serbia and Romania, both of which have/had plans of
   their own to become regional hegemons. Furthermore, Bulgaria, when overtly
   allied with Russia, affords Moscow control of essentially the entire
   non-Turkish controlled Black Sea coastline.

   Borisova**s initial moves against Russian projects in Bulgaria should
   therefore not be taken to signal a fundamental shift in Bulgariaa**s
   relations with Russia. Borisova**s government may temper some of the overt
   signs of this strong relationship, and recommit Sofia towards its Western
   Alliances. However, Borisova**s moves to freeze progress on South Stream
   and the Belene power plant are more likely about rooting out his
   predecessora**s control of those lucrative projects than about
   fundamentally moving Bulgaria away from Russia.

    

    

    

    

     
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-27 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1690024_analyst-for-edit-bulgaria-russia-anti-russian-bulgaria-don-t.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1690368,"Run-in... 
","   So I met in the lobby yesterday an equity investor from Russia who had a
   few deals here in Kazakhstan, Mattais Westman. When I handed him my card,
   he looked at it funny and asked me if we had met in the past. I told him
   that I didn't think so and we chatted briefly about the fact that there
   really is zero equity of any company here in Kaz.
    
   I ran into him again this morning while I was dashing between meetings
   with BTA, etc. He again commented on how he swore he knew me and I replied
   that his name was familiar, but we have most likely just run into each
   other in Moscow.
    
   So a third time I just ran into him in the elevator & greeted him as
   normally.... This time he glared at me. I tried to make small talk asking
   if he was staying much longer in Almaty. He said it was \"none of my
   business\" and that it would be \"better off if the two of us did not speak\"
   if we did see each other again.
    
   I was so confused, so I called godfather who laughed really hard & clued
   me in to who the hell Westman was. I have apparently affronted Westman in
   2 ways...
    
   Westman is Fridman's right hand man.... He moves Alfa's money in and out
   of Russia and does a lot of dirty work for Fridman.... Meaning his hands
   are stained red.
   1)      Westman definitely crossed my name back home this afternoon &
   realized who my godfather was--- who, btw, has helped the gov seize about
   4 billion from Westman's capital group in Moscow.
   2)      Apparently Fridman is seriously unhappy with our Oligarchs series
   and does not like the conclusions we've been pushing about them being
   under state control now.
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-06-24 11:32:30",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1690368_run-in-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","zeihan@stratfor.com,marko.papic@stratfor.com",""
1691034,"Re: [TACTICAL] Mohammadi Assassination update
","responses within

Fred Burton wrote:
> A few other thoughts:
>
> 1) Iranian disinformation?
>   
I think so.
> 2) Perhaps he was a double-agent working for the
> Israelis-Americans-Brits and they knew he was going to defect?
>   
Possible.
> 3) Precision hit has the earmarks of the security services of a number
> of countries, to include HZ.  First, the bombmaker got it right; eyes on
> had to be in play to activate the IED; it worked.
>   
Which would mean it's not Tondar, but doesn't delineate between Israel 
and Iran/HZ
> 4) Perhaps he was the only one reachable or expendable?   The Iranians
> knew he would be linked to the program by association.
>
> 5) Any links between the instant victim and the former university
> professor tied to their nuclear program?
>   
Have not been able to establish any
>
>
>
> Sean Noonan wrote:
>   
>> and videos:
>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a7KxdB9_ck&feature=player_embedded
>>
>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOSsrWgSg5A
>>
>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0sC-dpKsDs
>>
>> Sean Noonan wrote:
>>     
>>> Below I've collected most of the info we have.  Fred says his AP guy
>>> is going to be publishing something that links Mossad to the attack. 
>>> I personally don't buy it.  Mossad uses big explosions when trying to
>>> get major terrorists who very clearly have terrorist
>>> involvement---people they _really_ don't want to miss.  Other
>>> scientists have all been abducted or poison.  If there was US/Israeli
>>> involvement, that's what I think would have happened.  Especially if
>>> this guy was such a strong opposition supporter they could have turned
>>> and exfiltrated him. 
>>>
>>> AEOI (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran) denied that he was involved
>>> in the nuclear program.  None of his published work is nuclear
>>> related.  Most of his recent work was connected with SESAME-which is a
>>> UNESCO backed synchrotron radiation project.  Many of the Middle East
>>> Scientists involved are linked to gov't atomic programs, including a
>>> dude from AEOI.  It's particle accelerator is based in Syria and was
>>> started in 2002.  I cannot find any info on Mohammadi's travels to or
>>> from there. 
>>>
>>> I think he was mostly like hit by Iran intel or Hezbollah or some
>>> combination.  If we wanted we could lay out a piece with links to all
>>> recent scientist stuff and recent mossad attacks and compare and
>>> contrast. 
>>>
>>> *Masoud Ali-Mohammadi Update*
>>>
>>> *SOURCES:*
>>> Iranian businessman, travels regularly between Tehran and Chicago-
>>> -Hezbollah used in crackdowns on protestors
>>>
>>> >From Guy at Chapman Uni:
>>> Ali Mohammadi's area of expertise was in Dark Energy and string
>>> theory.  NOT in anything that was remotely related to nuclear
>>> physics.  Pointed out that Iran Atomic Energy Organization came out
>>> and stated that Ali Mohammadi had never worked them.
>>>
>>> Ali Mohammadi was very active outside of Iran, particularly with the
>>> SESAME project (Synchrotron-light for Experimental Science and
>>> Applications in the Middle East).  He was the Iranian representative
>>> in the project and routinely interacted with many western scientists
>>> (http://www.sesame.org.jo/Council/CouncilMembers.aspx).
>>>
>>> On a side note.  Several of the people the Prof speaks to in Iran are
>>> saying that Hezbollah operatives have been transferred to Iran after
>>> the elections and are being used to crack down on the opposition. 
>>> Prof said that he has a picture of Abu Nasser at the bomb scene of Ali
>>> Mohammadi that was posted on FARS but was quickly taken down.  I have
>>> asked for it but has yet to send it to me.
>>>
>>> -He thinks A-dogg's camp had him whacked and thinks HZ operatives did
>>> it.  Hence the comment about the pic of Abu Nasser at the bomb scene.
>>>
>>> You might be interested in the following report from the The Green Path
>>> Movement:
>>> Dr. Ali-Mohammadi?s House Raided Prior to His Assassination
>>>  One day before his assassination, Professor Ali-Mohammadi?s house was
>>> raided by Ministry of Information agents. Also, his documents were
>>> reportedly confiscated.
>>> Moreover, two weeks prior to his assassination the professor resigned
>>> from all responsibilities of cooperating with nuclear organizations.
>>> Following his assassination, the professor?s family was threatened by
>>> intelligence agents in order to prevent the possibility of news
>>> circulating about the raid on the house. There were numerous
>>> intelligence agents present at the scene, even during the memorial
>>> service.
>>>
>>> OSINT:
>>> “Abu Nasser” Hossein in the area.  The blast occurred across the
>>> street from where the dude is standing.  I actually don’t think the
>>> guys in the photos look that alike. 
>>> http://persian2english.com/?p=4012
>>> http://14march.org/news-details.php?nid=MTkxMDI2
>>>
>>> Iran claims Tondar responsible: AKA Iran Royal Association
>>> http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/DAH622696.htm
>>> http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=117029&sectionid=351020101
>>> <http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=117029&sectionid=351020101>
>>> Tondar- 'killing for democracy'
>>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LB7XBFn29rg
>>> Interesting blog with lots of info on the assassination—claims that
>>> Tondar’s website is actually run by Iranian intelligence
>>> http://homylafayette.blogspot.com/2010/01/tehran-university-professor-massoud.html
>>>
>>> Linked with Israeli Scientists (could call them?):
>>> http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3833674,00.html
>>>
>>> ASSASSINATION AND SCIENTIST ABDUCTIONS BACKGROUND:
>>> S4 articles on Mughniyah hit (similar to Salameh hit, 1979 Beirut),
>>> Feb 12, 2008, Damascus:
>>> http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/syria_tactical_details_mughniyah_hit
>>> Command detonated IED either in Mughniyah's car or along route he walked
>>> http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/hezbollah_deadly_cell_phone_ping
>>>
>>> Scientist Hassanpour- Jan. 25, 2007--poisoned?
>>> http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary_israeli_covert_operations_iran
>>>
>>> Hamas official killed with car bomb in his vehicle, Sept. 26, 2004,
>>> Damascus:
>>> http://www.stratfor.com/israel_taking_lesson_experts
>>>
>>> Another possible in Damascus, Dec. 12, 2004
>>> http://www.stratfor.com/bombing_damascus_mossad_or_amateurs
>>>
>>> Three iranian nuclear people disappear- Ashgari, Amiri and
>>> Ardebili--abducted Istanbul, on hajj in KSA and in Georgia:
>>> http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20091021_iran_ripple_effects_defection
>>> Ashgari:
>>> http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary_iranian_secrets_loose
>>> I have not seen any links between Amiri and Ali-Mohammadi
>>>
>>>
>>> -- 
>>> Sean Noonan
>>> Analyst Development Program
>>> Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>>> www.stratfor.com
>>>   
>>>       
>> -- 
>> Sean Noonan
>> Analyst Development Program
>> Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>> www.stratfor.com
>>
>>     

-- 
Sean Noonan
Analyst Development Program
Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
www.stratfor.com
","2010-01-27 18:58:17",1,"2012-03-06 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1691034_re-tactical-mohammadi-assassination-update-.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","","tactical@stratfor.com",""
1692977,"Re: Source payments
","   Well, I only have his one payment in the bank account. So that makes me
   think that I indeed have made a mistake on the expense report. I can send
   you a new one, to just say September-October?

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Jeff Stevens\" <jeff.stevens@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, October 1, 2009 3:07:29 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: Source payments

   When you get back we'll sort it out.  It may just be our descriptions that
   are off.  We don't know at this point.  Thanks. 
    
   Jeff Stevens
   Controller
   STRATFOR
   512-744-4327 Tel
   512-925-5616 Cell
   512-744-4334 Fax
   jeff.stevens@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
    
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, October 01, 2009 3:07 PM
   To: Jeff Stevens
   Subject: Re: Source payments
   Hmmm, that is my mistake then. I thought the last payment was for July.

   I don't have receipts yet because I can't get the money to the source from
   Switzerland. When I get to Austin, I will send him all that we owe him and
   then give you receipts (as always).

   In this case, since I made a mistake on this month and double-counted
   August, it means we have the payment for October done.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Jeff Stevens\" <jeff.stevens@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, October 1, 2009 2:53:05 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Source payments

   We have a $600 charge for August in August and $1,200 in September for
   August & September.  Do you have receipts for these because it appears we
   may have paid August twice.  We always need receipts to verify these by
   the way.
    
   Thanks,
    
   Jeff Stevens
   Controller
   STRATFOR
   512-744-4327 Tel
   512-925-5616 Cell
   512-744-4334 Fax
   jeff.stevens@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
    
    
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-29 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1692977_re-source-payments-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","jeff.stevens@stratfor.com",""
1695941,"Re: Possible Analysis...
","   I think this is a nice angle.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Eugene Chausovsky\" <eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Peter Zeihan\" <zeihan@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>, \"Lauren Goodrich\"
   <goodrich@stratfor.com>, \"Peter Zeihan\" <peter.zeihan@stratfor.com>,
   \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, December 3, 2009 8:08:04 AM GMT -06:00 Central America
   Subject: Re: Possible Analysis...

   Yes, but i would go beyond saying 'even' to 'especially' law enforcement
   is politicized...

   Peter Zeihan wrote:

     hehe - i'm a little sick of that angle myself, but ur right that this
     could be a good way to highlight it from the underbelly

     so ur thinking of what, a para on the rift and using this as a case
     study to show how even 'law enforcement' (only used quotes because this
     straddles the line between crime and terror) is politicized?

     Reva Bhalla wrote:

       i think that's a pretty neat angle
       On Dec 3, 2009, at 7:59 AM, Eugene Chausovsky wrote:

         What about from the angle that the investigations into the attack
         are indicative of the political rift within Russia - Putin and Med
         want this to blow away, but the FSB are all over it, as well as the
         possible backlash against Surkov.

         Peter Zeihan wrote:

           that's the problem -- too many culprits and based on who did it
           there are a wide divergence of actions that will be taken

           from what we have here the russians really don't have any leads
           two weeks after the events, so its really not worth going thru all
           the suspects

           Reva Bhalla wrote:

             i just think it would be useful to other readers to gain insight
             on teh culprits the russians are seriously considering. its an
             anomalous event, even Putin is talking about, the concern for
             Islamist terrorism is there. Lauren's got the scoop on what
             exactly they're investigating. we can always update as we get
             more info on who they narrow it down to
             On Dec 3, 2009, at 7:35 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

               great for client, but i don't see an angle we need to do for a
               piece until they know who did it

               once that happens, then its a slam dunk because we already
               know what the consequences will be

               Lauren Goodrich wrote:

                 **we had a client who had alot of questions on the train
                 bombing in Russia, so I started sorting through it all for
                 them and with godfather.... it ended up being a prototype
                 analysis that just needs to be written through....
                 lots of little details in this one, so don't hesitate to
                 call me.

                  
                 LG: Okay, Korenaa*| I have been meaning to send all this out
                 as insight, since have a lot of information & analytical
                 conclusions on this topic...
                  
                 Right now the Prosecutor Generala**s office is looking at
                 two very different groups as possibly behind the train
                 bombing. They are leaving their options open to a wildcard
                 possibility, but nothing has leapt out yet.
                  
                 THE FASCIST GROUP CLAIMS:
                  
                 First off, the Combat 18 group that initially took credit
                 for the bombing was bunk. I said from the beginning that the
                 Prosecutor Generala**s office was very wary of their claim
                 behind the attack. Combat 18 really doesna**t have the
                 capability to pull off something even as crude as this.
                  
                 Now this doesna**t mean that a right wing group isna**t
                 behind the attack. Russia has two fascistsa**Nikita Tikhonov
                 and Yevgenia Khasis-- under arrest for other murders of some
                 human rights activists. Their radical nationalist
                 groupsa**Russian Image and Russian Verdicta**have had
                 rumblings that they could have pulled off the attack as
                 well. Though neither group has come out and claimed
                 responsibility. (not for publishingA ) This would be very
                 bad if they were tied to the train bombings since both
                 groups were once Kremlin supported, though the Kremlin no
                 longer holds ties since they are off the deep end in violent
                 acts around Russia.
                  
                 The theory behind Comabt 18, Russiaa**s Image or Russiaa**s
                 Verdict being behind the attacks would be to try to make it
                 look like the Caucasus groups did it. They are all highly
                 anti-immigrants and their violent acts in Russia are
                 becoming more regular.
                  
                 THE CAUCASUS CLAIMS:
                  
                 No, the more likely answer is that one of the Caucasus
                 groups or Caucasus lone wolfs is behind the attack. This is
                 where the Interior Ministry and FSB are putting their main
                 efforts.
                  
                 The letter sent to KavKazCenter is thus far pretty credible.
                 KavKazCenter is the portal for most chatter from
                 Caucasusa**especially Chechena**extremists. There are a few
                 problems with their claim, but it doesna**t mean that it is
                 completely bunk.
                  
                 First off, the internet IP signature is similar to those who
                 claimed the Dam attack in August, which wasna**t even a
                 terrorist attack (not even close). But this is the same
                 similar signature for other attacks in the past, which did
                 occur. They also claimed responsibility for the
                 assassination attempt on Yunus-Bek Yekurov, so it seems they
                 want to claim responsibility for everythinga*|.. which is
                 why the Prosecutor Generala**s office is wary to be so
                 convinced of their claims without further proof.  
                  
                 Second, this group claims to be loyal to Doku Umarov, who
                 may be dead or dyinga*| it is known that D. Umarov was badly
                 shot in June and no one has heard from him since. Kadyrov
                 believes he is dead, but there is no body yet, so who knows.
                  
                 But there are a few reasons why this group may be telling
                 the truth:
                  
                 Those arrested in the 2007 train bombing claim to have been
                 tied to this group and the explosive devices between the
                 2007 and 2009 train bombings are very similar.
                  
                 Second, this group claimed in August that it would start
                 going after economic targets [Stratfor piece on it:
                 http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090821_russia_chechen_economic_war_threat]
                 . We havena**t seen it yet. If they are truly behind this
                 bombing, then this will be their first attack behind their
                 August proclamation. Nevsky Express is a prime economic
                 target because it is 1) full of Russian & foreign
                 businessmen 2) is near the 2 capitals 3) is easy to pull off
                 4) theya**ve pulled it off before 5) will make major
                 headlines, unlike attacks in the Caucasus.
                  
                 WARINESS BEHIND CLAIMS: Then again, the Prosecutor General
                 told me to be careful in proclaiming this was the Caucasus
                 groups making good on their August threat. They are still
                 entertaining the lone wolf scenarioa*|. This track is easy
                 to bomb and any lone Chechen outside of Moscow could have
                 done it.
                  
                 THE OTHER TRAIN ATTACK: Thus far there is no connection
                 between this attack and the one on the train heading for
                 Baku, the Prosecutor General says. That one looks much more
                 like Daghestani militants who are really ticked off at
                 Azerbaijan right now.
                  
                 RUSSIAN RESPONSES TO THE ATTACK:
                  
                 First off Medvedev and Putin want this whole thing to go
                 away and get out of the media. That is why Medvedev is
                 pushing the a**quick time linea** for investigations. The
                 sooner it gets out of the media the sooner the Russian
                 people will forget it (esp since this isna**t the first
                 attack on this train).
                 The FSB are the ones who are taking this attack very
                 seriously and they want to go all out on whoever was behind
                 ita*| problem is that they need to know who did it first.
                 If it does get proven that it was the Caucasus group from
                 Chechnya, then the FSB wants Kadyrov to unleash hell inside
                 Chechnya. They also want to scare Kadyrov for allowing such
                 an attack to happen. The FSB is not happy right now.
                  
                 ONE MORE SIDENOTE: if the Caucasus group or the neo-nazis
                 are ever proven behind this attack, then watch for some
                 backlash against Surkov. Remember that Surkov is in charge
                 of both Chechnya/Kadyrov and the nationalists (even the
                 neo-nazis)a*| hea**ll need to prove he has them all under
                 control. That is why Surkov is very interested in some lone
                 wolf pulling this attack off while pretending to be part of
                 one of the other groups.
                  
                  

                 --
                 Lauren Goodrich
                 Director of Analysis
                 Senior Eurasia Analyst
                 STRATFOR
                 T: 512.744.4311
                 F: 512.744.4334
                 lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
                 www.stratfor.com
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1695941_re-possible-analysis-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","zeihan@stratfor.com,goodrich@stratfor.com,reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,peter.zeihan@stratfor.com,eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com",""
1697484,"Some random thoughts about training
","   Hi Rodger,

   Here are some thoughts on training... just random musing that you said you
   wanted to download from me. These come from my experience both as an
   intern, junior analyst, analyst and as intern coordiator.

   First, I really think it is absolutely crucial that when it comes to
   training, we have senior analyst VERY visibly in charge of the process.
   Sure the administrative work of running the intern program is something
   the junior staff can do, but for training to be successful, there has to
   be sufficient authority behind it.

   Some thoughts on STRATFOR culture:

   1. First on this list is that I think we need to make it clear that saying
   \"I don't know... I need to find out\" is perfectly fine. This is not clear
   to interns. Discussions on the analyst list and in person often devolve
   into analysts doing intellectual gymnastics to prove they have an opinion
   or knowledge on everything going on. This is not productive as it is
   simply impossible to know everything. I have honestly heard analyst say \"I
   don't know\" maybe 5 times in my 2.5 years here. This seeps into interns
   who then think they need to pretend to know everything to get hired. Not
   good.

   2. We can be very mean/aggressive/bitchy at each othe when discussing
   work, especially when we feel we are stepping into each other's AORs
   (which is funny, since G says this is the main downfall of the CIA). This
   has a different effect on different people. For example, it makes some
   recruits think they can act the same way (think Aaron Moore). Second,
   there is this FANTASY (note: F A N T A S Y) that STRATFOR is a place where
   young, brilliant, ambitious people get together, rip each other apart, and
   then come up with an idea/analysis that is the sum of the parts. In
   reality, STRATFOR is divided between those who can yell and those who are
   yelled at. This is VERY clear to everyone on the junior staff. What
   happens is two things: a) junior analysts/interns/recruits decide to fight
   back and incur the wrath of senior staff and labeled as
   inflexible/un-trainable or b) junior analysts/interns/recruits decide that
   it is much easier to not fight back and become \"yes men\". Neither is what
   we want. We need to make it clear that at some point discussion STOPS. We
   are a BUSINESS. We do not have the luxury of academia or government to
   endlessly bullshit. BUT, this does not mean that we need to do it in an
   aggressive manner. And besides, if one needs to raise their voice to
   exercise authority, then they have already lost it (isn't that like a
   Confucius quote or something?)

   3. Analysts have to be more relaxed on being challenged. I think it may be
   good to start building some sort of a routinized criticism sessions, if
   for nothing else than to develop a culture of being able to take
   criticism. We are not going to be able to criticize ourselves (truly) if
   we don't accept criticism from others. So maybe some sort of a Maoist
   session where one analyst's analysis is destroyed could be a good
   exercise. I don't know...

   4. I think we are getting sloppy and we are starting to lose our drive to
   research things in depth. We are simply covering too much with too few
   people and our daily output, considering staffing, is making it impossible
   to be more thorough. How do we fix this? We talked about this... I don't
   know. But we are NOT doing a good job balancing daily \"for today\" with
   long term work.

   Here's an idea to resolve this problem. One of the qualities that ALL of
   our analysts should have (even regional) is situational awareness of the
   entire globe. That means that it would do good for Kamran, Matt or shit
   even YOU to write an analysis on Zimbabwe. Plus its kind of fun. PLUS, it
   gets different analysts working with different analysts (so for example
   instead of you working with me on ONE analysis in 2.5 years, you get to
   see my work on more opportunities).

   So think if Mark had to tell you what he wanted written for today's Zimb
   piece and what he wanted researched. Or if he told me. Or if I told Mark
   what I wanted for a Romania analysis. Now you have different analysts
   helping out on for today tasks on different AORs. Makes them much more
   involved... They start making connections on how different AORs operate,
   unearthing patterns that could help them in forecasting their own AOR

   Why am I suggesting this?

   Because maybe we can assign \"long-term project\" days. So an analyst would
   work intensely on FOR TODAY for 3 or 4 days of the week and the other 1-2
   days he/she would be either working on monographs or doing that
   \"INTELLIGENCE\" work you were telling me about this afternoon... you know,
   when you can actually mull about long-term changes and trends and pour
   over data to unearth anomalies. If I can just walk Mark or Karen through
   the Romania analysis in the am, and then \"red team\" it by making sure it
   is up to my liking, I can concentrate the rest of the day on long term
   stuff and not worry about putting out fires. And then next day I help
   Karen or Mark with their AOR, giving THEM time to do long term and
   expanding my horizons.

   Ok, I just bored you to death.
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1697484_some-random-thoughts-about-training-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","rodger.baker@stratfor.com",""
1699308,"Re: Novosti brojne
","   Marko,
   Fala tebi na istom takvom. Vidjanje sa NSCjem ce biti partly okolo rusije
   I gruzije, pa mi je svaka informacija vishe no dobrodosla, tek da ih
   opsenim.

   Rece mi danas srpski ambasador a juce sam dan serwer da su klinotnova I
   vuk pjevali horski okolo pronalazanje resenja za ustavnu reformu koje je
   potencijalno prihvatljivo za sodika. Srpski ambasador ovde je inace skroz
   ok tip I rekoh mu da te znam, prva sledeca prilika kad si u prestonici I
   spojicu vas da se upoznate.

   Sto se tice democracy promotiona skupljam podatke, I imacu uskoro I neke
   brojke, dobijash iH cim prije

   Salji kakvu gruziju I ukrajinu cim prije I cujemo se. McFaul je moj drugar
   I dobar tip, volim da mu pomognem (a ruse ko sto znash obozavam)

   Mogli bi naprolece I da se konacno upoznamo, dolazim na duzze, a dobri
   friedman nas je josh onomad pozvao da vas posetimo (I razmenimo pokoji
   analiticki tool) mi \"spijuni I izdajnici moramo da se drzzimo zajedno\",
   sto bi rek'o pokojni sloba milosevic..:)

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:18:16 -0600 (CST)
   To: <srkip@canvasopedia.org>
   Cc: Slobodan Djinovic<slobodan@mediaworksit.net>
   Subject: Re: Novosti brojne
   Zdravo Srdjo,

   Hvala na super email-u!

   1. Veoma interesantna informacija... Kao prvo, sta tacno mislis kad kazes
   da je Obama administracija \" posekla gomilu projekata pomoci\", bilo bi
   dobro ako imas detalje. Ovo je nama veoma interesantna i vazna novost i
   dosta se poklapa u neke informacije koje mi imamo od nasih izvora.
   Naprimer, od Rusa znamo da u Gruziji i Ukrajini nisu dosta dugo videli
   pro-democracy movements, i zato su naravno happy. Takodje od Rusa znamo da
   su pro-demokratske grupe bile veoma aktivne iz Azerbaijana za vreme
   Iranske \"revolucije\", ali da je Moskva to sanirala kao \"favor\" Tehranu.

   Rusiji je ovo veoma vazno jer nasi izvori kazu da se spremaju nove
   anti-Saakashvili demonstracije u Gruziji koje ce, ako ne direktno
   orkestrovane od strane Kremlja onda ce barem biti \"encouraged\". Naravno tu
   su i izbori u Ukrajini koji su prilicno \"locked down\", ali ipak, Moskva ne
   zeli da bude iznenadjenja.

   Dakle, mnogo nas interesuje sta se desava... Takodje me interesuje sta je
   tema NSC-a na koji ides, ako ima jos informacije o ovoj novoj putanji
   Obamine administracije to moze da bude dokaz da se Washington sprema za
   moguci \"Grand Bargain\" sa Rusijom.

   2. Sto se tice Bosne to je prilicno ironicno, Dodik hoce u NATO a Ameri
   hoce da se prvo zavrse reforme. Ha! To je stvarno za film. Problem je sto
   se svi u Bosni sad pozicioniraju za Oktobarske izbore, tako da od nekog
   \"butmirskog procesa\" nema sanse jer svi moraju da igraju nacoshe... to je
   standard. Ja sam bio u Sarajevu nedelju dana u Oktobru, i to je otprilike
   bilo sta su mi rekli i SDA, i Silajdzicevi a i iz Banja Luke.(By the way,
   iz SDA su mi rekli da su ponudili Dodiku ultra-autonomiju, ali da im preda
   neke delove istocne Hercegovine. Kad sam ih ja pitao zasto to ide njima u
   korist, odgovor je basically bio \"Lebensraum\". Interesantno.)

   Sto se tice Turske, ona je veoma aktivna kao sto ti kazes, pogotovu na
   strani Silajdzica. Gul je licno zvao Obamu uzmedu Butmir I i II da mu kaze
   da Steinberg promeni stav za Butmir II. A da nepricamo o tome sta prica
   Devutoglu... Covek rekreira Otomansku imperiju. Evropljanima se to uopste
   nije svidelo naravno, jer pokusavaju da \"srede\" Bosnu da o njoj vise ne
   moraju da se brinu. Sad su se totalno zamrzli jer ne samo sto Turska
   postaje aktivna nego i Rusija pocinje da prica kako njeno clanstvo na
   Peace Implementation Council-u znaci da i oni treba da se pitaju o Bosni
   (sto je ustvari i istina). Ovo je naravno totalan sok za Evropu jer su do
   prosle godine mislili da mogu Bosnu lepo sledecih 10 godina da sredjuju, a
   sad se ko lesinari okupljaju Moskva i Ankara...

   Sto se tice Beogradske politike, za sada se igra dosta komplikovana i
   opasna igra, ali izgleda po nekoj nasoj proceni da se igra veoma vesto.
   Naravno ne mislim na ona \"cetiri stuba\" sto je propaganda, pojenta je igra
   sa Rusima. Potez sa Rusijom se ocigledno isplatio. Medvedvova poseta +
   \"zajam\" + Ruska \"baza\" u Nisu (koju by the way Rusi smatraju veoma
   ozbiljnim logistickim centrom... barem nam tako kazu izvori u Kremlju) su
   naravno dali do znanja Evropi da Beograd ima \"opcije\". To je barem bio po
   nasoj proceni \"bluff\" koji su Jeremic i Tadic odigrali, i to dosta vesto.
   Evo sta su posledice tih poteza: Srbija dobija trgovinski sporazum, Evropa
   prica kako ce da da Srbiji ne znam koliko milijardi evro za 5 godina,
   Holandezi dolaze u BG i prakticno kazu da do pola 2010 prolazi SAA, etc.
   Svi su happy...

   Osim mozda Rusa... Pitanje je sta ce Moskva da misli o svemu tome kad
   ispadne da ih Beograd koristi za \"domestic consumption\" i da zastrasi
   Evropu a da ustvari se sprema NATO aplikacija. Na svu srecu Rusiji sad bas
   i ne ide u korist da pravi probleme na Balkanu jer pokusavaju da primame
   investicije za privatizacije od Nemaca i Francuza.

   Inace puno me interesuje sta ti mislis i naravno ako imas jos neku
   informaciju o pro-democracy movement support od strane Obamine
   administracije.

   Sve najbolje sutra na NSC-u! Ako ti treba nesto od nas, samo reci.

   Marko

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: srkip@canvasopedia.org
   To: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Slobodan Djinovic\" <slobodan@mediaworksit.net>
   Sent: Friday, December 18, 2009 3:53:43 AM GMT -06:00 Central America
   Subject: Novosti brojne

   Marko,
   Evo brzih novosti okolo nashe posete dc-ju, a bice I follow up-a

   1. Sto se tice srbije I odnosa US I srbije ukljucujuci I jucerasnji susret
   klintonobe sa vukom jeremicem:
   -srbija ce biti garant stabilne bosne (mada jastrebovi poput dana serwera
   agresivno zagovaraju ustavnu promenu)
   - srbi su \"pritisli\" dodika koliko su mogli ( ne zaboravi da on nije
   karadzic, nego baja koji se uhio od glasova na demokratskim izborima, a
   predstoje mu uskoro I novi na kojima ubedljivo vodi) na saradnju. Sem toga
   nashi (odlicni) izvori u tadicevom kabinetu kazu da je srpski
   estavlishment ulozio veliki napor da Dodika ubedi kako je ulaszak u NATO
   super opsija za bosnu (posmatrajuci dugorocno, ako srbija mora da bude
   \"okruzzena\" nato zemljama za srbiju je odlicno da u NATO-u sede I srbi iz
   rep. Srpske), da je dodik \"legao na rudu (cutao, zapravo protiv naota u u
   bosni govorili drugi, pre svih ekstremni muslimani), ali da su ameri
   svojom politikom \"slona u staklarskoj radnji\" naravno rekli \"ustavne
   reforme prvo\" (sto dodik, a bogami I dobar deo srpskog establishmenta\"
   cita kao ukidanje RS I \"prekrajanje\" dejtona\", I odbio, I da se bosna
   (koja se nicim izazvana kao tema popela na americkoj listi prioriteta,
   mada je mnogo vishe vruc krompir za EU nego za ameriku na americkoj listi
   spoljnopolitickih prioriteta, sto je bila I glavna tema sastanka
   klintonove I jeremica). Analiticki gledano srbija nema nijedan razlog da
   ne odigra sa amerima e da se bosna ne bi destabilizovala: ekonosmski,
   kostunicina vlada je \"kolonizovala\" RS (kupujuci telekom I osiguravajuci
   sektor\", bezbednosno, frka u bosni I eventualno izdvajanje srpskog I ili
   hrvatskog entiteta od bosanskog znacilo bi direktan ulazak ekstrenog
   islama (sa kojim bi se na veoma dugackoj granici) granicili I srbi I
   hrvati, politicki, Srbima bi \"usvajanje\" rs znacilo vishe stotina hiljada
   nacionalistickih biraca (to Tadicu, narocito uz opadajuci rejting dokazan
   pobedom Tominih narodnjaka na nedavno odrzanim izborima na vozdovcu) ne
   treba (uzgred ni pokojni Milosevic nije bash bio spreman da ih prigrli,
   sto je jedan od razloga sto je pristao na dejton)
   Nasha procena je da ce u svetlu poboljsanja srpsko-us odnosa srbi I ameri
   u bosni igrati zajedno (amerima ovo odgoara kao polje zajednickog
   delovanja, kudikamo more confortable nego kosovo koje je \"seme razdora\" a
   valja I'm napraviti neki prodor kod nas, narocito u svetlu rastuceg ruskog
   uticaja, pogledaj samo kojom je brzinom americka ambasada nakon
   bramercovog izvestaja I belog sengena \"samoinicijativno\" predlozila da se
   srbima izdaju petogodisnje vize mesto trogodisnjih)
   Sa druge strane \"spustanje lopte\" odgovara politici koju trenutno srbija
   vodi.
   Kljucna igra u bosni je dakle : kako predloziti ustavne promene koje bi
   zadovoljile ameriku (uslov za nato) I eu (uslov za dalje prikljucenje
   bosne umesto da ostane \"ostrvo gubavaca\") a da pri tome ne zadiru u
   dejtonom garantovan suverenitet rs (ono sto su turci, koji su se u
   poslednje vreme bas jako organizovali u regionu prdlagali u tzv
   \"butmirskom procesu najvise lici na to)

   2. Bice za vas uskoro i vesti iz DCja: Sto se tice nasheg voljenog
   democracy promotiona ima citav niz interesantih stvari, pre svega u vezi
   smanjenja  pomoci democracy poromtion programima (izgleda da je obamina
   administracija na krilima antibushovske politike\" posekla gomilu projekata
   pomoci raznoraznim aktivistima I da to poslako postaje velika tema ovde.
   Hajde da razmenimo informacije pre nego se damo u analizu, ono sto smo
   saznali oko Irana je dosta porazavajuce. Neka ovo zasad bude medju nama
   dok ne pozavrsavam sastanke naokolo, sutra idem I u NSC pa cu znati vishe,
   sta stratfor zna o tome I pratite li taj trend uopste?)

   Do slusanja, bash me zanima vash point of view
   Srdja
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2009-12-18 17:54:28",1,"2012-06-18 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1699308_re-novosti-brojne-.html","srkip@canvasopedia.org","","marko.papic@stratfor.com,slobodan@mediaworksit.net",""
1700833,"Turkish Source
","   Not sure if you have noticed that we had not heard from my main Turkish
   source - TR1 - in some time. The reason is that several months back he
   became an adviser to Erdogan. I fugure he was busy settling into his new
   role. Today he sent me his new cell phone #. This guy is ideologically
   close to Gul and got me in touch with Davutoglu. So he is the best access
   we are likely to have into Ankara. Not sure how much I will be able to get
   out of him at an given time but for starters send me a list of questions
   that you guys think are the most important to ask. Thanks.

    

    

    

    

    
","2009-09-29 22:48:31",1,"2012-03-16 21:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1700833_turkish-source-.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","","bhalla@stratfor.com,zeihan@stratfor.com,goodrich@stratfor.com,marko.papic@stratfor.com",""
1701604,"RE: Surveillance Op Log
","   One other point --
    
   Think about what Brian or Kyle could have done with a video camera from a
   vehicle when you lost me on 6th street?  Could have played the tape back
   to see where I went.  Mobile surveillance w/discreet video can also
   recover things that the eye does not see, such as the document I left in
   the newspaper box by the church. 
    
   Assume you guys recovered that?  :) 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, August 20, 2009 11:42 AM
   To: 'Lauren Goodrich'; 'Marko Papic'
   Cc: 'Reva Bhalla'; 'lauren'; 'Kristen Cooper'; 'Korena Zucha'; 'Bayless
   Parsley'; 'Catherine Durbin'; 'Alex Posey'; 'ben'; 'Charlie Tafoya';
   'Michael Wilson'; 'Jesse T. Sampson'; 'Kendra Vessels'; 'John Hughes';
   'robert'; 'Rodger Baker'; 'Scott Stewart {6}'; 'Anya Alfano'
   Subject: RE: Surveillance Op Log
   Good work for the first time out.   Not great work, but good enough as a
   first exercise.   Marko's job like any surveillance team leader is
   tough.   Following someone is tough work.  It's not like in the movies. 
    
   Note -
    
   * I did a clothing change out of view as I went down the side walk
   (channel) by the parking garage immediately when the exercise began,
   knowing you would call me out with a description.   Unbeknownst to me, the
   team had lost the eye.  
    
   * The use of bikes was good, except Bayless should ride the bike instead
   of pushing it around.  Odd demeanor hit.    
    
   * Time & distance.  I picked up one of you right away by the park, then
   again later on at the church across town.  Same dress.  Remember the time
   & distance rule.  Any person or vehicle seen over time and distance is
   more then likely surveillance. 
    
   * Missed my informant meet with Rodger and my passing of the Top Secret
   document.  I enjoyed eating lunch and drinking very cold ice tea, watching
   many of you wander by in a panic. 
    
   * Feeling of burned is very normal.  For the most part, if I didn't know
   you, I would not have seen you. 
    
   * Use of the CP was great work.  Fieldmen need to go with their instincts
   and disregard Hqs guidance when in a pinch (sorry Marko) like when you
   lost me and Korena thought I was getting a facial; next time folks fan out
   and find me. 
    
   * Did I meet with a priest?  You will never know....
    
   Next time, you will be ready for OPERATION CURVEBALL. 
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, August 20, 2009 11:20 AM
   To: Marko Papic
   Cc: Reva Bhalla; lauren; Kristen Cooper; Korena Zucha; Bayless Parsley;
   Catherine Durbin; Alex Posey; ben; Charlie Tafoya; Michael Wilson; Jesse
   T. Sampson; Kendra Vessels; John Hughes; robert; Fred Burton; Rodger Baker
   Subject: Surveillance Op Log
   Here are the notes I took if you want them.

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-08-20 18:48:35",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1701604_re-surveillance-op-log-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","rbaker@stratfor.com,burton@stratfor.com,stewart@stratfor.com,goodrich@stratfor.com,reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,marko.papic@stratfor.com,anya.alfano@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com,kristen.cooper@stratfor.com,bayless.parsley@stratfor.com,ben.west@stratfor.com,charlie.tafoya@stratfor.com,michael.wilson@stratfor.com,alex.posey@stratfor.com,catherine.durbin@stratfor.com,kendra.vessels@stratfor.com,Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com,john.hughes@stratfor.com,robert.ladd-reinfrank@stratfor.com,jesse.sampson@gmail.com",""
1702550,"Fucking Russian Defense Guys.... 
","   Hey y'all....
    
   Just wanted to say that I met for 4 hours with the Kremlin's Advisory
   Board to the Ministry of Defense & have enough incredible info to fill
   dozens of pages of intel-all which will make Nate change his pants a few
   times.
    
   But the meeting did not go as well as I wished-they spent the first 45 min
   yelling at me for \"forcing\" them to meet with them on a Sunday. One guy
   screamed that he was being forcibly kept away from his wife and two babies
   just because \"this girl happens to be the darling of a powerful man in the
   Kremlin\". Then they yelled at me for being a girl \"trying to work in the
   man's defense area\" and then for being connected to Stratfor and the
   American Administration. But I had to take it, though I did start shaking
   at one point as they got pretty heated-- but my security team cleared
   their throats to cut off the yelling. I thought that they were going to
   blame me for the Kursk and the fall of the Soviet Union they hated me so
   much.
    
   But we did finally get past all this and discuss the Russian defense
   sector. I have info on the real stuff behind the French Mistral deal for
   this week's meeting. I'll type that stuff up first (hopefully tonight),
   since it is most timely. Then I hope to start getting to the other info as
   I have time. I should have a few hours late tonight as I am staying the
   night at my godfather's house after a dinner he is throwing for me.
    
   I just thought y'all would get a chuckle out of my scoldings at the
   Defense Ministry & to make sure y'all get my info before y'all write on
   the France-Russia mtg this week.
    
   Miss y'all,
   Lauren
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-11-22 17:26:34",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1702550_fucking-russian-defense-guys-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","zeihan@stratfor.com,reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,nathan.hughes@stratfor.com,marko.papic@stratfor.com",""
1705733,"RE: MX1
","   Of course.  He will be protected. 
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, October 22, 2009 6:17 PM
   To: Fred Burton
   Subject: MX1
   Hey Fred,

   I was talking to MX1 and he said that it was great to see you working in
   DPS.

   I mentioned to him that Stephen, who MX1 met in Austin, also now works for
   DPS. He was a little concerned about that and asked if Stratfor has all
   its employees sign confidentiality agreements. He said that it would make
   his work liaison-ing with DPS difficult if his relationship with Stratfor
   was known outside of the CT group in Stratfor.

   Do you think you could perhaps mention that to Stephen one more time. I
   know Stephen knows how to handle himself, but in the context of his
   official work for the Mexican government, MX1 could come across Stephen's
   office in the future and it would be a  problem if the relationship
   between MX1-Stratfor was revealed.

   Looking forward to seeing you in a few weeks by the way. I've had an
   interesting time in Europe. My final stop, Bosnia, is on Monday.

   Cheers,

   Marko
","2009-10-23 01:38:52",1,"2012-03-03 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1705733_re-mx1-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","marko.papic@stratfor.com",""
1705981,"Re: BRIEF - COMMENT/EDIT - EU/GREECE: No Bailout for Greece? - NO
 MAILOUT
","   It was meant as Athens' perception. Note that I say it is politically
   untenable for EU to do so.

   Kevin Stech wrote:

     If Athens does not take this seriously, and instead waits until Brussels
     is forced to bail it out, the EU could find itself having to bail
     Portugal as well. This will quickly become politically untenable for the
     big EU economies Germany and France who are facing difficult economic
     situations at home. The onus is therefore on stopping the bleeding in
     Greece by showing investors that the EU has enough clout to force its
     member states to fix their fiscal policies through persuasion alone.

     Remember our conversation with George when he brought up the point that
     the EU could also let Greece default and then put big resources behind
     the next domino when the markets inevitably tested it?  I thought that
     was a valid scenario.  Why do we assume that Brussels will be \"forced\"
     to bail Greece out?

     Robert Reinfrank wrote:

       nice

       Marko Papic wrote:

         Speaking at the sidelines of the Davos annual meeting in Switzerland
         the EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner, Joaquin Almunia said in an
         interview to Bloomberg on Jan. 29 that the EU policymakers had no
         \"plan B\" to help Greece. Almunia said that \"Greece will not default.
         In the euro area, default does not exist.\" Almunia also called
         newspaper reports about a possible euro bailout of Greece as
         \"sensationalist\". Rumors, however, continued to swirl with U.K.
         newspaper Financial Times citing unnamed EU officials as preparing
         for a possible Greek bailout. While there are certainly contingency
         plans that the EU has to be discussing in the light of declining
         demand for Greek government bonds, which is now also trickling down
         to demand for Greek corporate bonds as well, a bailout of Greece is
         not in the short-term plans of the EU. The EU wants Greece to fix
         its own problems and implement a detailed, credible and painful
         budget austerity plan, much as Ireland did in December. If Athens
         does not take this seriously, and instead waits until Brussels is
         forced to bail it out, the EU could find itself having to bail
         Portugal as well. This will quickly become politically untenable for
         the big EU economies Germany and France who are facing difficult
         economic situations at home. The onus is therefore on stopping the
         bleeding in Greece by showing investors that the EU has enough clout
         to force its member states to fix their fiscal policies through
         persuasion alone.

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-01-29 15:27:51",1,"2001-03-13 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1705981_re-brief-comment-edit-eu-greece-no-bailout-for-greece-no.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1708759,"Re: [Analytical & Intelligence Comments] RE: Taking Stock of WikiLeaks
","   Feel free but I think that it was in a seance while using peyote.
   On 12/14/10 10:44 , Sean Noonan wrote:

     anybody mind if I respond to this guy and ask him about his source(s)?

     On 12/14/10 9:39 AM, MSE.CaptainMcCright@gmail.com wrote:

       MSE.CaptainMcCright@gmail.com sent a message using the contact form at
       https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

       I understand appoximately 20 people have lost their lives.
       due to  the sensitive nature of their work and a now public
       disclosure.

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334
","2010-12-14 17:47:20",1,"2012-03-01 23:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1708759_re-analytical-and-intelligence-comments-re-taking-stock-of.html","gfriedman@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1708856,"Re: 
","   Sorry! page 168 of the PDF ITSELF, not of the actual printed document. And
   I was wrong... the debt is like 99% domestically held. Which oh by the way
   makes letting Greece implode SO much easier.

   \"You lie to us about stats... you can't get your spending in order... AND
   you owe yourself?! Why are we thinking of bailing you out again?!\"

   Hintz, Lisa wrote:

     I couldn't find it, but that is fine.  I believe you, and if I need
     them, I will have you dig them up!  If they hold that much debt, they
     will have to mark it to market in March which will be a HUGE hit to
     their capital base.  They were all recapitalized this past summer (by
     the government) but, depending on how much each one holds relative to
     their capital base, some could literally be insolvent.

      

     Lisa Hintz
     Capital Markets Research Group
     Moody's Analytics
     212-553-7151 

     From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Friday, February 05, 2010 3:32 PM
     To: Hintz, Lisa
     Subject: Re:

      

     You are definitely right. Greek banks took disproportionate percent
     (relative to their economy compared to overall eurozone economy) of
     those 1 year unlimited fund auctions by the ECB. This is not speculation
     at all. I have the numbers somewhere, I have seen them. I can dig them
     up for you if needed. And yes, the Greek banks hold around 80 percent of
     government's external debt (check page 168 of the attached document).

     Hintz, Lisa wrote:

     Yes, but they wouldn't want to.  For them, they have plenty of liquidity
     because they are borrowing from the Fed for free.  In theory they could
     then buy Greek bonds and hold them for the spread, but now they would
     have big losses on them since the spread has widened.  But the real
     reason was that the \"customer flow\" business - using their balance sheet
     to facilitate buying and selling of securities and derivatives by their
     customers - has been a great business.  Also, issuing debt and equity,
     and to a lesser extent, M&A business has been really good.

      

     But the Postbanks or BAWAGs or LBBWs of the world couldn't really get in
     that market.  They needed size to do that, and liquidity.  So what I was
     thinking was that with the small amount of liquidity they had (customer
     deposits, maturing loans, maturing securities) they might have bought
     higher yielding bonds for the spread rather than tying it up in more
     mortgages or other local projects.

      

     From a bank's perspective also, it makes sense to hold securities rather
     than loans.  Loans tie up more regulatory capital, and many of these
     banks were very capital constrained.  I think the people that were
     putting the Greek debt at the ECB were the Greek banks.  I think what
     was happening was that the government was issuing a lot of debt (to pay
     public sector workers and more generally to fund its deficit) and it was
     being bought by the Greek banks.  Then they were putting it with the ECB
     because they needed liquidity and it essentially gave the government
     \"hard currency\" which is to say Euro deposits with the banks.  I suspect
     that when they had those 1 year unlimited and other long term funding
     auctions by the ECB, the Greek banks took down a lot of them.  I also
     suspect that for the ones after the first one (which weren't one year),
     but also before the last one, they showed up in really disproportionate
     size (I don't know this, this is all speculation) and that is when the
     ECB said \"enough\").  It is also when the market got worried because the
     news got out that they were responsible for 9% of the funding from the
     ECB!  Somehow, the market didn't get worried enough because it took
     until the first of this year for things to start to really fall apart.

      

     Lisa Hintz
     Capital Markets Research Group
     Moody's Analytics
     212-553-7151 

     From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Friday, February 05, 2010 2:55 PM
     To: Hintz, Lisa
     Subject: Re:

      

     Plus, can JP Morgan purchase Greek government debt and use it as a
     collateral with the ECB?

     Hintz, Lisa wrote:

     Yes, although given how profitable the FICC and i-banking business has
     been this year, I think the big players have just stayed there.  I would
     think that someone like BNP or JP Morgan would find it too small and not
     worth it.

      

     Lisa Hintz
     Capital Markets Research Group
     Moody's Analytics
     212-553-7151 

     From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Friday, February 05, 2010 1:45 PM
     To: Hintz, Lisa
     Subject: Re:

      

     I was thinking of the same thing...

     I imagine it is all eurozone banks, since any eurozone bank can use them
     as collateral. Right?

     Hintz, Lisa wrote:

     It would be really interesting to know where beside the Greek banks the
     Greek bonds are held.  I have been suspicious that German and Austrian
     banks with their low profitability, (Deutsche would be an exception)
     might have been buying Greek, Irish, Spanish, Portuguese bonds as a
     carry trade hoping to earn their way out of their problems.  I have no
     way of knowing this, but if you  come across this, let me know.  Gillian
     Tett wrote a piece in the FT today where she did mention German
     insurance companies, and I think it is right, but the banks probably
     have them too.

      

     Lisa Hintz

     Capital Markets Research Group

     Moody's Analytics

     212-553-7151

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     The information contained in this e-mail message, and any attachment
     thereto, is confidential and may not be disclosed without our express
     permission. If you are not the intended recipient or an employee or
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     you are hereby notified that you have received this message in error and
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     have no liability for any computer virus which may be transferred via
     this e-mail message.

 --

  

 Marko Papic

  

 STRATFOR

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A

 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094

 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334

 marko.papic@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     The information contained in this e-mail message, and any attachment
     thereto, is confidential and may not be disclosed without our express
     permission. If you are not the intended recipient or an employee or
     agent responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient,
     you are hereby notified that you have received this message in error and
     that any review, dissemination, distribution or copying of this message,
     or any attachment thereto, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited.
     If you have received this message in error, please immediately notify us
     by telephone, fax or e-mail and delete the message and all of its
     attachments. Thank you. Every effort is made to keep our network free
     from viruses. You should, however, review this e-mail message, as well
     as any attachment thereto, for viruses. We take no responsibility and
     have no liability for any computer virus which may be transferred via
     this e-mail message.

 --

  

 Marko Papic

  

 STRATFOR

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A

 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094

 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334

 marko.papic@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     The information contained in this e-mail message, and any attachment
     thereto, is confidential and may not be disclosed without our express
     permission. If you are not the intended recipient or an employee or
     agent responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient,
     you are hereby notified that you have received this message in error and
     that any review, dissemination, distribution or copying of this message,
     or any attachment thereto, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited.
     If you have received this message in error, please immediately notify us
     by telephone, fax or e-mail and delete the message and all of its
     attachments. Thank you. Every effort is made to keep our network free
     from viruses. You should, however, review this e-mail message, as well
     as any attachment thereto, for viruses. We take no responsibility and
     have no liability for any computer virus which may be transferred via
     this e-mail message.

 --

  

 Marko Papic

  

 STRATFOR

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A

 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094

 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334

 marko.papic@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     The information contained in this e-mail message, and any attachment
     thereto, is confidential and may not be disclosed without our express
     permission. If you are not the intended recipient or an employee or
     agent responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient,
     you are hereby notified that you have received this message in error and
     that any review, dissemination, distribution or copying of this message,
     or any attachment thereto, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited.
     If you have received this message in error, please immediately notify us
     by telephone, fax or e-mail and delete the message and all of its
     attachments. Thank you. Every effort is made to keep our network free
     from viruses. You should, however, review this e-mail message, as well
     as any attachment thereto, for viruses. We take no responsibility and
     have no liability for any computer virus which may be transferred via
     this e-mail message.

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-02-05 22:23:49",1,"2001-03-13 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1708856_re-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","Lisa.Hintz@moodys.com",""
1710497,"Re: [Eurasia] [OS] G3 - FRANCE/SWEDEN/TURKEY/EU - Sarkozy cancels
 Sweden visit over	Turkey
","   This is definitely about attention grabbing... Sarko is so predictable.
   This is awesome!!

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Eugene Chausovsky\" <eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com>
   To: \"EurAsia AOR\" <eurasia@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Friday, May 29, 2009 8:50:33 AM GMT -05:00 Colombia
   Subject: Re: [Eurasia] [OS] G3 - FRANCE/SWEDEN/TURKEY/EU - Sarkozy cancels
   Sweden visit over        Turkey

   Looks like Sarko is already trying to grab the limelight again before
   Sweden takes over...any significant implications of a Sweden-France clash
   over Turkey for the rest of the EU, energy deals, etc?

   Chris Farnham wrote:

     Sarkozy cancels Sweden visit over Turkey
     http://euobserver.com/9/28208
     ELITSA VUCHEVA

     Today @ 09:12 CET

     French President Nicolas Sarkozy has cancelled a visit to Sweden
     scheduled for next Tuesday (2 June) in order to avoid a clash on the
     question of Turkey's EU membership just days before the European
     elections and a month before Stockholm takes over the EU's rotating
     presidency.

     Officially, Mr Sarkozy's office said the trip was cancelled \"for agenda
     reasons.\"

     \"We should avoid halting EU enlargement,\" said Swedish foreign minister
     Carl Bildt

     But the French president, who is an outspoken opponent of Turkey's entry
     to the European Union, did not want to highlight the strong divergence
     of views on this topic with Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, Le
     Monde reported on Thursday (28 May).

     Sweden favours further EU enlargement, including to Turkey. On Monday
     this week, Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt told Le Figaro newspaper
     that the EU had \"a strategic interest\" in Turkey's EU integration and
     warned against \"closing the door\" to Ankara.

     \"If we judge Cyprus to be in Europe, although it is as in island along
     Syria's shores, it is hard not to consider that Turkey is in Europe,\" Mr
     Bildt said, referring to Mr Sarkozy's repeated statements that Turkey is
     not a European country and does not belong to Europe.

     Additionally, Mr Sarkozy probably did not appreciate that Mr Bildt
     expressed views different from his on the economy, French newspapers
     comment.

     In the Figaro interview, Mr Bildt said: \"My vision of Europe is not as
     defensive as I observe it with other people.\"

     In a reference to aid plans for the car industry - very much promoted by
     Mr Sarkozy - the Swedish top diplomat said that for him, \"spending
     taxpayers' money to subsidise existing structures is a very good way of
     wasting money.\"

     The French president's trip to Sweden was cancelled the day after the
     interview was published.

     \"Nicolas Sarkozy cancelled his visit because of the Carl Bildt
     interview,\" one minister told Le Monde.
     \"The president wanted to avoid a clash on Turkey and did not want that
     his visit to Sweden interferes with the elections [five days later].
     There are [also] too many dossiers that are too important to prepare
     with the Swedish EU presidency to spoil that visit,\" another official
     told the paper.
     The upcoming Swedish EU presidency is the real reason behind the
     cancellation, rather than the context of the European elections,
     according to Le Figaro journalist Pierre Rousseiln.

     \"Nicolas Sarkozy does not fear confrontation,\" he wrote in his blog,
     adding that defending his position in Sweden could even have been
     beneficial for Mr Sarkozy ahead of next Sunday's vote.

     If he refused to go to Stockholm, he did it to avoid a clash just a
     month before the Swedish EU presidency starts and it is a sign that Mr
     Sarkozy is expecting a number of difficulties during Sweden's six-month
     term at the head of the bloc, Mr Rousselin wrote.

     The French president's office is currently working on rescheduling the
     visit for another date before the end of June.

     --

     Chris Farnham
     Beijing Correspondent , STRATFOR
     China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
     Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

 --
 Eugene Chausovsky
 STRATFOR
 C: 512-914-7896
 eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-29 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1710497_re-eurasia-os-g3-france-sweden-turkey-eu-sarkozy-cancels.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","eurasia@stratfor.com",""
1713359,"Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis
","   They were training some Iranian women activists (ostensibly for women
   rights) in Azerbaijan. And teaching them about taking on the gov't.

   They communicate with me, when discussing Venezuela, through secure
   channels.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 5:35:03 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis

   What are their tentacles?  I would hope they are practicing disciplined
   commo? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, February 02, 2010 5:28 PM
   To: Fred Burton
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis
   They (or rather their tentacles) are already there.

   They have been giving us some info on it, but nothing really substantial
   because their presence there is weak.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 5:25:34 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis

   Send them into Iran. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, February 02, 2010 5:22 PM
   To: Fred Burton
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis
   Thank you. They are very impressive group of guys. They just go and set up
   shop in a country and try to bring the government down. When used
   properly, more powerful than an aircraft carrier battle group.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 5:19:34 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis

   Very good work

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, February 02, 2010 5:15 PM
   To: Fred Burton
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis
   CANVAS is basically the same as OTPOR.

   OTPOR (means resistance) were a group of students from Belgrade who took
   down Milosevic. They were tangentially connected to U.S funding sources
   like NED, Freedom House and the Albert Einstein Institute and, through
   them, the U.S. Agency for International Development and the U.S.
   Department of State. BUT, the US funding sources more lached on to them
   after realizing their potency than other way around.

   After they toppled Milosevic, the kids who ran OTPOR grew up, got suits
   and designed CANVAS - Center for Applied Non-Violent Action and
   Strategies... or in other words a \"export-a-revolution\" group that sowed
   the seeds for a NUMBER of color revolutions. (they even have a website:
   http://www.canvasopedia.org/) They are still hooked into U.S. funding and
   basically go around the world trying to topple dictators and autocratic
   governments (ones that U.S. does not like ;)

   I hooked into them in late 2007 and they have been feeding us intel on
   Venezuela, Georgia, Serbia, etc. Meredith expressed interest and so I
   arranged a meeting between CANVAS main guy (Srdjan Popovic) and
   George/Meredith in Denver around spring 2008. The meeting went well,
   George invited them to come talk to the analysts on how they run
   revolutions. They have accepted and I am gaming out when to bring them
   over here to Austin.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>, \"Marko Papic\"
   <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Secure List\" <secure@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, February 2, 2010 2:56:39 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis

   What is CANVAS? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, February 02, 2010 2:38 PM
   To: Marko Papic
   Cc: Secure List
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - VENEZUELA: CANVAS analysis
   sounds a lot like these opposition leaders are getting paid off/threatened
   sufficiently not to join
   On Feb 2, 2010, at 2:24 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     SOURCE CODE: SR501

     PUBLICATION: NO

     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: CANVAS leader

     ATTRIBUTION: Not yet, not unless they let us publish

     SOURCE RELIABILITY: A

     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 5

     SPECIAL HANDLING:

     DISTRIBUTION: Secure

     SOURCE HANDLER: Marko

     According to CANVAS itself, they believe the protests have come too
     early. They are analogous to the ban against media and therefore follow
     the CANVAS manual on regime change when it says that \"you need to make
     your opponent aware that there will be a price tag attached to his
     oppressive behavior.\" How effective the move is, we will soon know.

     From the point of view of OTPOR, if the students want to grab the notion
     that they are the number one enemy of Chavez, as Otpor did with
     Milosevic, they are doing a good job at it. Next step is to start
     putting pressure on the oppositio not to fracture (during anti-Slobo
     protests the chant was \"Traitors are Pussies\", referring to opposition
     working with government). Church and students are currently polled in
     Venezuela as more reliable and popular than the opposition parties...
     again very similar to what happened in Serbia. Next step is to gather at
     a place together with the opposition leaders... at a funeral, at a
     meeting, anything. That is key next step. Getting the opposition to come
     to a STUDENT gathering.

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-06-18 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1713359_re-insight-venezuela-canvas-analysis-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
1714389,"Russian energy interests in the Balkans
","","2011-01-31 22:30:23",1,"2012-03-02 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1714389_russian-energy-interests-in-the-balkans-.html","marko.primorac@stratfor.com","","marko.papic@stratfor.com","attach/126/126434_Russian Energy Investments in Balkans.docx"
1714601,"Re: 
","   Its my quote!

   Oh I believed it! We knew about that too, for some time. \"Lied\" is not how
   they used to describe the situation pre-crisis. It was about \"capacity
   building\" in Athens... to help them get their \"standards up\". Ha! What a
   joke!

   Have a GREAT weekend! I may have to work if I hear rumors that there is a
   \"Lehman moment\" coming up on Monday. :)

   thanks for all your help,

   Marko

   Hintz, Lisa wrote:

     Was that quote yours, or did someone really say that?  It is so true.  I
     couldn't believe it when it turned out they had lied about their stats!

      

     Lisa Hintz
     Capital Markets Research Group
     Moody's Analytics
     212-553-7151 

     From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Friday, February 05, 2010 4:24 PM
     To: Hintz, Lisa
     Subject: Re:

      

     Sorry! page 168 of the PDF ITSELF, not of the actual printed document.
     And I was wrong... the debt is like 99% domestically held. Which oh by
     the way makes letting Greece implode SO much easier.

     \"You lie to us about stats... you can't get your spending in order...
     AND you owe yourself?! Why are we thinking of bailing you out again?!\"

     Hintz, Lisa wrote:

     I couldn't find it, but that is fine.  I believe you, and if I need
     them, I will have you dig them up!  If they hold that much debt, they
     will have to mark it to market in March which will be a HUGE hit to
     their capital base.  They were all recapitalized this past summer (by
     the government) but, depending on how much each one holds relative to
     their capital base, some could literally be insolvent.

      

     Lisa Hintz
     Capital Markets Research Group
     Moody's Analytics
     212-553-7151 

     From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Friday, February 05, 2010 3:32 PM
     To: Hintz, Lisa
     Subject: Re:

      

     You are definitely right. Greek banks took disproportionate percent
     (relative to their economy compared to overall eurozone economy) of
     those 1 year unlimited fund auctions by the ECB. This is not speculation
     at all. I have the numbers somewhere, I have seen them. I can dig them
     up for you if needed. And yes, the Greek banks hold around 80 percent of
     government's external debt (check page 168 of the attached document).

     Hintz, Lisa wrote:

     Yes, but they wouldn't want to.  For them, they have plenty of liquidity
     because they are borrowing from the Fed for free.  In theory they could
     then buy Greek bonds and hold them for the spread, but now they would
     have big losses on them since the spread has widened.  But the real
     reason was that the \"customer flow\" business - using their balance sheet
     to facilitate buying and selling of securities and derivatives by their
     customers - has been a great business.  Also, issuing debt and equity,
     and to a lesser extent, M&A business has been really good.

      

     But the Postbanks or BAWAGs or LBBWs of the world couldn't really get in
     that market.  They needed size to do that, and liquidity.  So what I was
     thinking was that with the small amount of liquidity they had (customer
     deposits, maturing loans, maturing securities) they might have bought
     higher yielding bonds for the spread rather than tying it up in more
     mortgages or other local projects.

      

     From a bank's perspective also, it makes sense to hold securities rather
     than loans.  Loans tie up more regulatory capital, and many of these
     banks were very capital constrained.  I think the people that were
     putting the Greek debt at the ECB were the Greek banks.  I think what
     was happening was that the government was issuing a lot of debt (to pay
     public sector workers and more generally to fund its deficit) and it was
     being bought by the Greek banks.  Then they were putting it with the ECB
     because they needed liquidity and it essentially gave the government
     \"hard currency\" which is to say Euro deposits with the banks.  I suspect
     that when they had those 1 year unlimited and other long term funding
     auctions by the ECB, the Greek banks took down a lot of them.  I also
     suspect that for the ones after the first one (which weren't one year),
     but also before the last one, they showed up in really disproportionate
     size (I don't know this, this is all speculation) and that is when the
     ECB said \"enough\").  It is also when the market got worried because the
     news got out that they were responsible for 9% of the funding from the
     ECB!  Somehow, the market didn't get worried enough because it took
     until the first of this year for things to start to really fall apart.

      

     Lisa Hintz
     Capital Markets Research Group
     Moody's Analytics
     212-553-7151 

     From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Friday, February 05, 2010 2:55 PM
     To: Hintz, Lisa
     Subject: Re:

      

     Plus, can JP Morgan purchase Greek government debt and use it as a
     collateral with the ECB?

     Hintz, Lisa wrote:

     Yes, although given how profitable the FICC and i-banking business has
     been this year, I think the big players have just stayed there.  I would
     think that someone like BNP or JP Morgan would find it too small and not
     worth it.

      

     Lisa Hintz
     Capital Markets Research Group
     Moody's Analytics
     212-553-7151 

     From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Friday, February 05, 2010 1:45 PM
     To: Hintz, Lisa
     Subject: Re:

      

     I was thinking of the same thing...

     I imagine it is all eurozone banks, since any eurozone bank can use them
     as collateral. Right?

     Hintz, Lisa wrote:

     It would be really interesting to know where beside the Greek banks the
     Greek bonds are held.  I have been suspicious that German and Austrian
     banks with their low profitability, (Deutsche would be an exception)
     might have been buying Greek, Irish, Spanish, Portuguese bonds as a
     carry trade hoping to earn their way out of their problems.  I have no
     way of knowing this, but if you  come across this, let me know.  Gillian
     Tett wrote a piece in the FT today where she did mention German
     insurance companies, and I think it is right, but the banks probably
     have them too.

      

     Lisa Hintz

     Capital Markets Research Group

     Moody's Analytics

     212-553-7151

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

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     thereto, is confidential and may not be disclosed without our express
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 --

  

 Marko Papic

  

 STRATFOR

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A

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 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334

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     have no liability for any computer virus which may be transferred via
     this e-mail message.

 --

  

 Marko Papic

  

 STRATFOR

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A

 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094

 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334

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 www.stratfor.com

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     The information contained in this e-mail message, and any attachment
     thereto, is confidential and may not be disclosed without our express
     permission. If you are not the intended recipient or an employee or
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     you are hereby notified that you have received this message in error and
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     have no liability for any computer virus which may be transferred via
     this e-mail message.

 --

  

 Marko Papic

  

 STRATFOR

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A

 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094

 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334

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   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     The information contained in this e-mail message, and any attachment
     thereto, is confidential and may not be disclosed without our express
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     you are hereby notified that you have received this message in error and
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     If you have received this message in error, please immediately notify us
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     as any attachment thereto, for viruses. We take no responsibility and
     have no liability for any computer virus which may be transferred via
     this e-mail message.

 --

  

 Marko Papic

  

 STRATFOR

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A

 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094

 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334

 marko.papic@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     The information contained in this e-mail message, and any attachment
     thereto, is confidential and may not be disclosed without our express
     permission. If you are not the intended recipient or an employee or
     agent responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient,
     you are hereby notified that you have received this message in error and
     that any review, dissemination, distribution or copying of this message,
     or any attachment thereto, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited.
     If you have received this message in error, please immediately notify us
     by telephone, fax or e-mail and delete the message and all of its
     attachments. Thank you. Every effort is made to keep our network free
     from viruses. You should, however, review this e-mail message, as well
     as any attachment thereto, for viruses. We take no responsibility and
     have no liability for any computer virus which may be transferred via
     this e-mail message.

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-02-05 22:44:29",1,"2001-03-13 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1714601_re-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","Lisa.Hintz@moodys.com",""
1717183,"INSIGHT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA - relations & energy
","   CODE: RU106
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Gazprom
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Head of Gazprom (dis)Information
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: C
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts, briefers
   HANDLER: Lauren

   Bulgaria is Russia's Trojan Horse in the EU. The relationship between
   Russia and Bulgaria may be occasionally cold, but they will always be
   Slavic brothers at the end of the day.
    
   There are two reasons for the recent cooling of relations was that
   Bulgaria.
   1)        First is that Bulgaria was the worst hit country during the 2009
   natural gas cut off.
   2)      Second is the change in government. Stanishev had been a good
   little brother, since he is from Ukraine and spoke perfect Russian.
   Borisov is not as interested in Russia as a big brother.
    
   This has affected relations in 3 areas:
   1)        first, Bulgaria is pulling out of the Orthodox Pipeline (We're
   calling Bourgas-Alexandroupolis the \"Orthodox Pipeline\" now. Since it
   involves so many Slavic Orthodox countries.)
   2)      second, Bulgaria is not continuing the Belene project. This is not
   so much about the cooling of relations as financial reasons on the
   Bulgarian side. The Germans were suppose to pay for the plant, but
   withdrew and since then Sofia cannot find the funds for the plant. Moscow
   has offered to pay for Sofia's portion, but the Bulgarians do not want it
   to be Russian-owned.
   3)       Lastly is South Stream. This last issue is the one that is very
   interesting. First Bulgaria said that the terms for South Stream were
   unacceptable. But it has now changed its mind for 3 reasons.
         a.       Sofia's attention to South Stream snapped back when Russia
   turned to Romania instead. Russia has other options.
         b.      Bulgaria does not want to burn every bridge with its former
   brother. This is one that is best out of the three projects in their eyes.
         c.       Bulgaria is now striking a larger deal with Russia on
   natural gas. This next month Russia and Bulgaria economic and energy
   ministers will continue and     solidify energy talks. Thus far the plan
   is for Bulgaria to formally sign the remainder of the documents from
   mid-July on committing to South Stream. In return Bulgaria will receive a
   large natural gas price cut.
    
   The bilateral deal on the natural gas price cut is that Bulgaria's
   Bulgargaz will directly purchase gas from Gazprom instead of the three
   middlemen (Overgas, Wintershall and Gazpromexport). This will lower the
   price from the $576 per tcm to $339 per tcm. Negotiations on this
   bilateral deal will begin August 10.
    

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Watch Officer, STRAFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
","2010-07-26 19:02:48",1,"2012-03-02 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1717183_insight-bulgaria-russia-relations-and-energy-.html","michael.wilson@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,briefers@stratfor.com",""
1717932,"Re: INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Latest in Clan Wars (protect for now)
","   Wow... Putin is letting it go both ways then.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Lauren Goodrich\" <goodrich@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Secure List\" <secure@stratfor.com>, \"George Friedman\"
   <gfriedman@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, December 21, 2009 1:01:49 PM GMT -06:00 Central America
   Subject: INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Latest in Clan Wars (protect for now)

   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION:  checking
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  The Prosecutor General
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   HANDLER: Lauren
    
   The past few weeks have been particularly difficult between the clans.
    
   Surkov/Medvedev tandem has purge a slew of people from
   Sechin/Patrusheva**s clan. 21 officials from the Interior Ministry, 5 FSB
   Generals in the Defense Ministry and Moscowa**s police chief Pronin have
   all been purged.
    
   In response, Sechin/Patrusheva**s group has decided that they need to come
   after me and my groupa**the Prosecutor Generala**s office. They have used
   their foot soldier, Alexander Bastrykin, in the Investigative Committee to
   launch a purge within my office. Bastrykin vows to not be owned by Sechin,
   though I have never believed this and now my proof is here. Thus far they
   have gotten fired the head of my Investigative Committee, Anatoli
   Bagmeta**who was critical to aiding me in my work inside our
   investigations against the Siloviki. Bastrykin is planning on firing the
   heads of the regional Investigative Committees as well, 12 in all.
    
   The problem is that Sechin/Patrushev want to come after me (Chaika), but
   Surkov will not allow such a move. What I have been told is that Putin has
   laid ground rules on how far each clan can go to  purge the other. For
   example, Surkova**s request to have Interior Minister Nurgaliyev sacked
   was quickly nixed by Putin. Now that Sechina**s move to get me fired has
   also been shielded from above. So instead there are a lot of purges
   happening on the second tier, like these in the past few weeks.
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1717932_re-insight-russia-latest-in-clan-wars-protect-for-now-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","goodrich@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
1719754,"Re: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup plot
","   150 is a huge #. I see this as a way for Gulen to subvert the AKP.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Emre Dogru <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
   Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2011 12:50:53 -0600 (CST)
   To: <bokhari@stratfor.com>; Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup plot
   I really don't know and I don't think this can be found out accurately. We
   can know this at ministerial level at best. President Gul and FM Davutoglu
   are close to Gulen, for example.

   Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     How many Gulenites in the current parliament?

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Emre Dogru <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
     Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2011 12:42:30 -0600 (CST)
     To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>; Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup
     plot
     I think it's not AKP, but Gulen movement that takes this step.

     AKP came under criticism from the opposition and from the US, when
     generals and some other journalists were arrested two weeks ago. Thus,
     it doesn't make sense for AKP to arrest two more journalists (who most
     people believe unrelated to any of plots against AKP) and create more
     controversy ahead of elections. Erdogan is a pragmatic guy, he would not
     want more pressure before elections that would increase public fear
     against AKP. So, Gulen movement puts pressure on AKP by making these
     arrests. The question is why. I discussed this with our Turkish friend
     who came to Austin recently. He says Gulenists want 150 MPs from AKP if
     Erdogan wants less pressure. It's basically a post-election bargaining.
     friedman@att.blackberry.net wrote:

       Explain why akp would take this step. It seems to energize oppostion
       rather than strengthen akp. What is their thinking?

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Emre Dogru <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
       Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Sun, 6 Mar 2011 11:38:16 -0600 (CST)
       To: <analysts@stratfor.com>
       ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
       Subject: Re: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup
       plot
       There is a point here that is related to the discussion that Rodger,
       Kamran, Reva and I had while I was writing the PKK piece last week.
       They argued that PKK ending ceasefire could create an opening for
       opposition to use regional unrest as cover to topple the AKP. I said
       this was unlikely.
       Arrests of these two journalists made a huge impact in Turkey. They
       are accused of being linked to Ergenekon. Turkish political agenda is
       currently overwhelmed by these arrests since no one believes that they
       are part of such plan. I can say that so far I have not seen the
       Turkish media being so outspoken about the fear that AKP creates, the
       auto-censure that they have to apply and how they fear being arrested
       because of their opposition against AKP/Gulen movement. Some
       journalists marched on Saturday to protest the arrests, all ministers
       (including Erdogan) had to make some mild statements to distance AKP
       from arrests, which nobody bought.
       But the point here is that even at such a period when AKP is seen as
       most autocratic government and there is huge criticism against it,
       neither there were mass protests on the streets, nor opposition tried
       to exploit it. If there is an opportunity to use regional unrest as
       cover to show how undemocratic AKP is, this is it. But it did not take
       place yet. I think this proves my point.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: \"Nate Hughes\" <hughes@stratfor.com>
       To: \"alerts\" <alerts@stratfor.com>
       Sent: Sunday, March 6, 2011 4:53:02 PM
       Subject: G3/S3* - Turkey - Two more journalists jailed over coup plot

       Turkey jails two more journalists over coup plot
       http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/06/us-turkey-plot-idUSTRE7251G920110306

       9:09am EST
       By Ibon Villelabeitia
       ANKARA (Reuters) - A court on Sunday charged two more prominent
       journalists with links to an alleged plot to topple the Turkish
       government in a case that has raised worries of media freedom in
       Turkey.
       Ahmet Sik and Nedim Sener, who have written investigative books about
       Turkey's clandestine \"deep state\" activities, were detained on
       Thursday with six other journalists after police raided their homes at
       dawn. They were jailed pending trial.
       Another prominent journalist, Soner Yalcin, who runs a news website
       critical of the government, was charged last month as part of the same
       case, which has turned the political heat on the government before
       elections in June.
       The arrests of journalists in Turkey, a country which has applied to
       join the European Union, has also drawn expressions of concern from
       the United States, the EU and Human Rights Watch about Ankara's
       commitment to democratic principles and free media.
       Human Right Watch said on Saturday such developments had a \"chilling
       effect\" on free speech and urged Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's
       government to respect press freedom.
       Authorities say the arrests are part of an investigation into an
       alleged plot by a murky ultra-nationalist group known as Ergenekon to
       overthrow Erdogan's AK Party government.
       But critics say the case is being used to silence media critical of
       the AK government, which has a huge majority in parliament and
       controls levers of state power.
       Sik is already on trial over a book he co-wrote about the Ergenekon
       group. He had also written stories in a now-defunct magazine about
       diaries by a formal navy commander outlining the existence of an
       alleged coup plan against Erdogan's government.
       Sener has written books about the investigation into the killing of
       Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink in 2007, in which members of
       Turkey's clandestine state apparatus have long been suspected of
       having a role.
       The government is expected to easily win a third consecutive term in
       parliamentary elections in June.
       Erdogan has said the arrests have nothing to do with the government
       but the case threatens to become an election issue.
       Thousands of people, many of them journalists, marched in Ankara and
       Istanbul on Friday in response to the detentions and chanted
       anti-government slogans.
       Public opinion was behind the government after the first Ergenekon
       arrests back in 2007, particularly of retired military and police
       officers, as few Turks want a return to the coups that blighted the
       country in the late 20th century.
       But skepticism set in as the case broadened and police detained
       academics, journalists, civil society workers, and in one case, a
       transsexual singer. Hundreds have been taken in and many suspects have
       been held for more than two years.
       The trials reflect a lingering mistrust between the traditionally
       secular establishment and a ruling party that critics say retains
       Islamist leanings.
       The AK Party, which swept establishment parties from power in 2002, is
       regarded by investors as the most market-friendly party due to
       Turkey's economic success over the past decade.
       Critics accuse Erdogan of having an authoritarian streak and say AK
       has lost its reformist spirit after eight years in power.
       --
       Nathan Hughes
       Director
       Military Analysis
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com

       --
       --
       Emre Dogru
       STRATFOR  
       Cell: +90.532.465.7514
       Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
       emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
       www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-03-06 19:52:41",1,"2012-03-07 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1719754_re-g3-s3-turkey-two-more-journalists-jailed-over-coup-plot-.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1720327,"New-tern Info...
","","2009-05-11 22:15:18",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1720327_new-tern-info-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","marko.papic@stratfor.com,robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com","attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc
attach/126/126614_Team Eurasia 090302.xls
attach/126/126615_READING LIST.doc
attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc"
1727162,"Re: INSIGHT - SWEDEN: Carl Bildt
","   Hey Aaric,

   That sounds good... That was just two days (really day and a half) in
   Strasbourg as well. 

   I am back on November 6th. So let's plan to sit down and mull after that.

   Cheers,

   Marko

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Aaric Eisenstein\" <eisenstein@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, September 17, 2009 9:29:26 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT - SWEDEN: Carl Bildt

   If you're up at 4, you're insane.  I'll make the introductions when you're
   back.  When's that?
    
   You're getting some amazing shit over there, just amazing.  I want to sit
   down with you when you get back and plot and scheme on how we can turn it
   into cash.
    
   Later,
    
   AA
    
   Aaric S. Eisenstein
   SVP Publishing
   STRATFOR
   512-744-4308
   512-744-4334 fax
   aaric.eisenstein@stratfor.com
   Follow us on http://Twitter.com/stratfor
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Thursday, September 17, 2009 8:58 PM
   To: eisenstein@stratfor.com
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - SWEDEN: Carl Bildt
   But I don't know who Grant Perry is... or do I? It's 4am here so I may be
   completely insane.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: eisenstein@stratfor.com
   To: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, September 17, 2009 8:56:11 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - SWEDEN: Carl Bildt

   Believe grant Perry knows Bildt. Check with Grant if you need

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Sep 17, 2009, at 7:30 PM, Marko Papic <marko.papic@stratfor.com> wrote:

     SOURCE CODE: SW501 (SW501 is a very well connected Swedish MEP with
     extremely close links to both the FM Carl Bildt -- his closest ally
     basically -- and the Balkans).
     PUBLICATION: No
     ATTRIBUTION:
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: NA
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: NA
     SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Secure
     SOURCE HANDLER: Marko

     I got a lot of info on Carl Bildt. Our Swedish MEP contact is basically
     his main ally. Bildt is apparently super tall, has photographic memory
     and is very smart. He has a very rocky relationship with the current
     Prime Minister because Reinfeldt was the youth leader of the Moderate
     Party when Bildt was the Prime Minister briefly and the two did not get
     along.

     Bildt believes that Sweden should become a world power. He talks a lot
     about the traditional sphere of Swedish influence in the Baltic (sort of
     like our monograph). From his experiences in the Balkans he has decided
     that he does not like Croats and Albanians.

     He is also very critical of Russia. He called Putin a \"chetnik\" in the
     middle of a meeting with an MEP group. He is essentially a personna non
     grata in Moscow. He is also at odds with Sarkozy because before Sweden
     received its EU Presidency he essentially told the French not to pull
     the same stuff they did with Czech Republic.

     He is very involved with enlargement. Sweden sees enlargement as a way
     to break the German-Frenc stranglehold on the EU. His personal goal is
     to see every Balkan state make one step forward towards accession during
     his premiership.

     I did meet his wife, who is also an MEP in the Parliament. She is
     apparently Italian and does not speak really good Swedish, so she
     couldn't get into the Swedish parliament. Instead, she campaigned for
     the European and got in.
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1727162_re-insight-sweden-carl-bildt-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","eisenstein@stratfor.com",""
1730355,"Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian Bulgaria?
 Don't get your hopes up!
","   It won't... they know why he is doing them... he is trying to manuver his
   own people into control of those enterprises. They know that if he screws
   around his friend from the Moscow mob will pull him back in line.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Kendra Vessels\" <kendra.vessels@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, July 13, 2009 3:07:01 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Re: ANALYSIS FOR COMMENT - BULGARIA/RUSSIA: Anti-Russian
   Bulgaria? Don't get your hopes up!

   Great job in explaining why Bulgaria and Russia need one another-
   geopolitically- but is Russia willing to give Borisov wiggle room to gain
   control of these projects and other aspects of the Sofia-Moscow
   relationship? Might help to add a couple of sentences on how Russia will
   deal with Borisov's moves.

   Marko Papic wrote:

     I had to cut out a LOT of info we have on Borisov simply because I am
     not sure which bits could get us into legal trouble. Nonetheless, a lot
     of that stuff is also weedy, so I think a broader geopolitical
     discussion is not out of place.

     Newly elected Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Boyko Borisov, has in a letter
     on July 13 asked the Economy and Energy Minister Petar Dimitrov to
     temporarily freeze the construction of the Belene nuclear power plant
     and the development of the South Stream natural gas pipeline project.
     Borisov claimed in the letter that the Bulgarian state owned companies
     involved in the two projects were not taking into account the economic
     crisis in their operations, hinting at financial malfeasance. Both the
     Belene nuclear power plant and the South Stream project are being
     developed in cooperation with Russian state owned enterprises,
     Atomstroyexport and Gazprom respectively.

     Russian influence in Bulgaria has always been considered as robust and
     the government of outgoing prime minister Sergei Stanishev did nothing
     to dispel that notion, despite Sofiaa**s entry into the EU in 2007 under
     his leadership and the fact that it had been a member of NATO since
     2004. Bulgariaa**s relatively eager participation in the South Stream
     project a** Russian alternative to the EUa**s Nabucco project a** has
     been lauded as an example of the close collaboration between Moscow and
     Sofia and proof of Bulgariaa**s a**Trojan Horsea** status within the
     Western Alliance.

     Borisova**s actions, one of his first as incoming prime minister, to
     freeze progress on the two major Russian projects within Bulgaria seem
     to suggest that he will stick to his campaign promise to play by a**EU
     rulesa** on energy policy and reverse his opponenta**s policies of
     cozying up to Russia. He also campaigned that he would not be beholden
     to Moscow and that he would treat Russia just like any other power, thus
     ending the special relationship enjoyed by Sofia and Moscow under
     Stanisheva**s government.

     However, the warm relations between Bulgaria and Russia are not a modern
     phenomenon, nor are they beholden to any particular governmenta**s
     policies. The relationship is rooted in geopolitics and has withstood
     the test of time from the 19th Century until today.

     Bulgaria owes its independence from the Ottoman Empire in late 19th
     Century to Russia which fought the Russo-Turkish War with the intent of
     creating a a**Greater Bulgariaa** with sea access in both the Black Sea
     and the Aegean Sea. The Russian plan for an enlarged Bulgaria, which
     would have given Russia friendly ports in the Mediterranean, backfired
     by alarming Western powers who were forced to intervene, albeit
     diplomatically, during the 1878 Berlin Congress and thus greatly reduced
     Bulgariaa**s territory.

     Russia and Bulgaria continued to have a strong relationship throughout
     the 20th Century despite Bulgariaa**s decision to side with the Central
     Powers in the First World War and subsequently the Axis in the Second.
     As an example of its strong link to Moscow, Bulgaria refused to join the
     attack against the Soviet Union despite being officially allied with
     Nazi Germany. The subsequent communist period in Bulgaria, while not
     remembered with nostalgia, does not elicit the same kind of knee jerk
     anti-Russian feelings as in much the rest of Central and Eastern Europe.
     Bulgaria was a loyal member of the Soviet Bloc with no uprisings against
     Moscowa**s regional hegemony.

     The oft stated reason for Bulgariaa**s affinity towards Russia are the
     cultural and religious ties between the two countries and these
     certainly work well to grease the wheels of the relationship.  However,
     in reality, Bulgariaa**s interests are rooted in its geopolitical
     circumstances. Surrounded by entities who have historically been
     stronger and sometimes outright aggressive towards it -- namely
     Turkey/Ottoman Empire to the South, Romania to the north and
     Yugoslavia/Serbia to the West, Bulgaria has often relied on Russia to
     play the role of its protector and champion in the region.  Meanwhile,
     from the Russian perspective, Bulgaria affords it a foothold in the
     Balkans, much more reliable than the often too independently minded
     Serbia and Romania, both of which had plans of their own to become
     regional hegemons. 

     Borisova**s initial moves against Russian projects in Bulgaria should
     therefore not be taken to signal a fundamental shift in Bulgariaa**s
     relations with Russia. Borisova**s government may temper some of the
     overt signs of this strong relationship, but his move to freeze progress
     on South Stream and the Belene power plant is more likely about rooting
     out his predecessora**s control of those lucrative projects than about
     fundamentally moving Bulgaria away from Russia.  Once Borisov feels that
     he and his power base are sufficiently in control of all aspects of the
     Sofia-Moscow relationship, it is very likely that Bulgaria will continue
     to be one of Russia's strongest allies within the EU and NATO. 
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-27 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1730355_re-analysis-for-comment-bulgaria-russia-anti-russian.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1730613,"Re: FOR QUICK COMMENT - IRAQ - U.S. and Arab Allies Target Iran
","   First, the whole idea that Iran wants to destabilize Iraq is based on
   certain conditions in which Iran is loosing and needs to hit back at the
   U.S. That has long ceased to be the case. Iran is not losing and for it to
   win it needs a stable Iraq where the Shia dominate and the Sunnis remain
   marginal players.

   Second, we are not saying U.S. wants govt collapse in Iraq. But if
   al-Maliki, Shia , and the Iranians are feeling the heat there then unrest
   works to the Saudi advantage and to a certain extent (assuming it can be
   managed) works to the American benefit as well. Neither wants Iran
   comfortable to where it can continue to keep pushing deeper and deeper
   into the Arab world. The way to prevent this is to keep Iran struggling in
   Iraq.

   On 3/3/2011 5:19 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     Iran destabilizing Iraq works against US
     now all of a sudden this is saying US destabilizing Iraq works against
     Iran
     that's a giant contradiction that can't be looked over.  It's hard to
     see the US pushing for Sunni-led riots and govt collapse in iraq when it
     is just a few months away from complete withdrawal.
      what are allawi's other motives? how did those other resignations fit
     in?  do we have any insight on who allawi has been talking to recently
     and what he's thinking?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
     To: analysts@stratfor.com
     Sent: Thursday, March 3, 2011 4:12:47 PM
     Subject: Re: FOR QUICK COMMENT - IRAQ - U.S. and Arab Allies Target Iran

     Yes, the U.S. may not be involved. But the Iranians don't want
     instability either. They want U.S. forces out so they can do as they
     please. So, Allawi upsetting the government undermines Iranian
     interests. They need Iraq to be calm so that they can try and take
     advantage of the opportunities on the other side of the PG.

     On 3/3/2011 5:03 PM, George Friedman wrote:

       What you are saying here that the United States wants to destabilize
       Iraq in order to block Iran.  I do not think this is US policy.  It
       may be a Saudi idea, but the idea that the United States has reached
       the point that it wants instability in Iraq just isn't there yet. 
       What Allawi does or doesn't do is not an indicator of what the United
       States is planning.  The American view is that the more instability
       there is in Iraq increases Iranian power because the U.S. is not in a
       position to step in and stabilize the situation.  Even more important,
       the United States has 50,000 troops there and does not want them
       targeted by Iranian militias.  So I don't think you can move from
       Allawi (an increasingly irrelevant figure) acting in a certain way and
       U.S. policy.

       On 03/03/11 15:39 , Reva Bhalla wrote:

         have a lot of questions, main one at the end. i just dont see how
         the US would want to create a crisis in Iraq with the sunnis leading
         the unrest when it's trying to withdraw

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Maverick Fisher\" <fisher@stratfor.com>
         To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
         Sent: Thursday, March 3, 2011 3:11:35 PM
         Subject: FOR QUICK COMMENT - IRAQ - U.S. and Arab Allies Target Iran

         Teaser

          

         Iyad Allawi's decision not to participate in a body designed to
         foster the inclusion of Sunnis in the Iraqi government could create
         problems for Iran.

          

         Allawi's Decision and Iran's Challenge

          

         Summary

          

         Iyad Allawi, the head of al-Iraqiyah bloc, the leading party
         representing Sunni interests, announced March 2 that he would not
         lead the proposed National Council for Strategic Policies (NCSP).
         The NCSP had been intended to give Sunnis more of a stake in Iraq's
         Shiite-dominated government. The move need to explain in this
         summary in what way this is bad for Iran, ie. what is the effect of
         Allawi not playing ball. otherwise it sounds a bit contradictory
          comes as Iraq -- like many other countries in the region -- faces
         protests seeking better governance. Allawi's move to exploit the
         unrest probably is a i would say 'could be.' we tend to give the US
         credit for a lot of moves in iraq but im not always convinced US is
         scheming these things every time. way for the United States and
         Saudi Arabia to weaken the Iranian position in Iraq.

          

         Analysis

          

         Former interim Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, a Shi'i who leads
         the centrist overwhelmingly Sunni party al-Iraqiyah, announced March
         2 that he is no longer interested in leading the National Council
         for Strategic Policies (NCSP).

          

         Allawi's move comes amid protests in Iraq like those sweeping many
         other countries in the region demanding reform. It the move? weakens
         the Shiite-led al-Maliki government how?, thereby putting Iran on
         the defensive in an area it had considered locked down in its
         struggle with the United States and its Gulf Arab allies. This means
         Iran will have fewer resources to devote to stoking unrest in other
         theaters like Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

          

         Just a few weeks before popular unrest swept through the Arab world,
         Iran was able to solidify its interests in Iraq via the installation
         of the strongest Shiite-dominated government in Iraq in modern
         times. As protests gathered steam in Egypt, Tehran then engineered
         the toppling of the pro-Western, pro-Saudi Saudi-backed government
         in Lebanon  huh? that happened before the Egypt protests. and though
         iran likely had a hand in it through hezbollah, wouldn't necessarily
         say they alone engineered it. And now, with protests spreading
         throughout the Arabian Peninsula, the Islamic Republic sees an
         opportunity to project power across the Persian Gulf into the
         strongest bastion of pro-western Arabs.

          

         The United States and its Arab allies, and especially Saudi Arabia,
         greatly fear Iran's potential moves in the Gulf Arab states. U.S.
         Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said March 2 that Iran is
         directly or indirectly communicating with opposition groups in
         Egypt, Bahrain and Yemen in an attempt to influence the outcome of
         events, and that in response the United States is making diplomatic
         and other contacts of its own with opposition groups across the
         Middle East and North Africa. This is the first public
         acknowledgment by the US that Iran has a hand in the regional
         unrest.

          

         But Riyadh and Washington have few good counters to Tehran.
         Sectarian demographics coupled with the general demand for democracy
         works against the United States and Saudi Arabia. More promising
         would be using the regional unrest as an opportunity to stir up the
         Iranian opposition Green Movement and Iran's ethnic minorities,
         especially the Baluchi-Sunnis, to create unrest in Iran. need to
         explain the BUT here -- attempts to do so in the past didnt really
         get anywhere.  The best, most practical, option, however is
         undermining Iranian interests in Iraq.

          

         Iraq currently faces several challenges that the United States and
         Saudi Arabia could exacerbate. Protesters demanding that the
         Shiite-dominated government do a better job are creating unrest in
         Iraq. Appointments to head the security ministries in Iraq's new
         government have not been finalized. And the perennial problem of the
         Sunni role in post-invasion Iraq also remains.

          

         The NSCP, designed to give Sunnis more of a stake in the
         Shiite-dominated post-Baathist republic and thus remove the
         incentive for insurgency, was proposed to help settle this last
         question. Allawi's announcement that he is no longer interested in
         leading the NCSP deals a strong blow to efforts to get Sunnis to buy
         in to the new government. this is confusing. we're talking about the
         US/Saudi interest in getting the sunnis a stake. then Allawi is
         going against that goal by not allowing the sunnis to get a stake.
         need to explain this disconnect Allawi is simultaneously working to
         exploit the intra-Shiite dynamic to his advantage still unclear what
         Allawi's strategic aim is. that really needs to be explained up
         front. To this end, he is reaching out to top Iraqi cleric Ayatollah
         Ali al-Sistani, and more important, to radical Iraqi Shiite leader
         Muqtada al-Sadr. Allawi hops al-Sadr will have to speak against the
         government to placate his followers, who are largely poor and fed up
         with the Iraqi governments' failure to deliver stability and
         propserity. To this end, Allawi hopes to tap into al-Sadr's desire
         to become the most powerful Shiite bloc in Iraq.  in other words
         allawi is using sadr to amplify the protests?   can that be
         explained/written more clearly

          

         While Allawi's bloc says it will continue to remain in parliament,
         its moves on the NCSP and its overtures to al-Sadrites weaken the
         Iraqi government by cutting into its Sunni support and potentially
         dividing the Iraqi Shia. point needs to be waaay up front Washington
         and Riyadh probably have been could be encouraging Allawi to
         undermine the al-Maliki government, because this by extension
         weakens Iran's hand. Their ultimate goal is shaking Iran's
         confidence that it has Iraq locked down and thus forcing Tehran to
         back off from its moves to promote instability in the Gulf Arab
         countries, or at least forcing Tehran to the negotiating table.

          

         There are limits though to this strategy, however. Al-Sadr is
         aligned with Tehran, making him unlikely to jeopardize the Iraqi
         Shiite unity Iran benefits from in pursuit of his own partisan aims.
         And this means is that the Sunnis will have to emerge as the
         vanguard of the unrest. but that creates a HUGE problem for the US
         as well when the US is trying to withdraw from Iraq? that's the big
         and obvious question. so how does this necesarily work against Iran?
          i think we're taking a leap here in assuming this is part of a big
         US-Saudi plot to weaken Iran. where do the resignations fall in as
         well? The Iranians, however, are hoping that even the Sunnis will
         not want to tamper too much with the fragile Iraqi state, thereby
         helping Tehran maintain its interests in Iraq.

         --
         Maverick Fisher
         STRATFOR
         Director, Writers and Graphics
         T: 512-744-4322
         F: 512-744-4434
         maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

       --

       George Friedman

       Founder and CEO

       STRATFOR

       221 West 6th Street

       Suite 400

       Austin, Texas 78701

        

       Phone: 512-744-4319

       Fax: 512-744-4334

        

     --

   --
","2011-03-03 23:24:56",1,"2012-08-05 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1730613_re-for-quick-comment-iraq-u-s-and-arab-allies-target-iran-.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com","attach/6/6434_Signature.JPG"
1737548,"Re: INSIGHT - BRAZIL - national security, terrorism, drugs, Argentina,
	etc.
","   will do.  i haven't heard that much talk of Peru so far but i'll ask more
   about that.
   Also, props to our graphics team. The Cabinet of Institutional Security
   and the Brazilian generals I talked to say they really love our maps. we
   talked about working together on some map-making projects in the future
   On Jan 6, 2011, at 12:12 PM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

     I get the obsession over Bolivia.  If you get a chance, mind asking
     about how Peru (and perhaps Colombia fit in to this).  Brazil is heavily
     invested in Peru's energy sector and the countries are building several
     hydroelectric plants along their common border.  Also, the two countries
     are working on/finishing up an international highway that connects the
     two countries.

       well they also stress energy integration as well. So for example, the
       nat gas that they get from bolivia and the infrastructure they're
       building around those projects. They are obsessed with Bolivia and
       making sure no one does anything to push Bolivia to edge of secession.
        I think they see access to the Pacific as an integral part to this
       broader South American integration goal.  They do keep stressing the
       economic driver behind it, but perhaps that's more of a way to make
       these extensions appear less imperial like..? 
       I'll probe deeper, though
       On Jan 6, 2011, at 12:01 PM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

         in the future if you get into dilma's office, swipe me a paperweight

         question on this pacific interest of theirs:

         it makes pol/mil/control sense to me, but not really any econ sense

         its far far far far cheaper to ship stuff by water around south
         america to asia than it would be to do so by road/rail across the
         continent, over the andes and down to chile and then have it shipped
         out from the atlantic ports (which are within spitting distance of
         almost all of brazil's population

         this doesn't mean i don't think those connections don't make sense
         -- they are how you establish/transmit political/cultural domination
         -- im just saying that any economic rationale is a distant third in
         terms of importance

         btw - brazil has always always always been obsessed about infra,
         which makes sense considering their lack of access to useful river
         systems, but its interesting to see them extend that obsession that
         far
         anywho, any realization of this from your talks with them?

         On 1/6/2011 10:03 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

           Just came from a couple really cool meetings at the Palacio
           Planalto (presidential palace.)  They gave me a full tour and i
           got to go right up to Dilma's office, but she was in a meeting.
           Wanted to tell her hello on behalf of Stratfor, oh well.
           My first meeting was held in the actual Situation Room, where all
           the military, intel, security people come together to deal with
           national security issues.  I kind of got the feeling that Brazil
           doesn't have to deal with these kinds of things too often. They
           said during Lula's time, they met 64 times. Really cool maps all
           over the place. They gave me as a gift this beautiful map of the
           world with Brasilia in the center (ambitious much? haha)  This
           meeting was with a diplomat friend who is now working in the
           president's office and two ministers/secretaries of the GSI
           (cabinet of institutional security.)  All, including General Elito
           Sequeiro - the chief of GSI, who I met later in his office, know
           and read Stratfor regularly. Literally, they were telling me news
           of what they had read on stratfor this morning and were saying
           that practically everyone there is a member.
           We talked about a range of issues... heard a lot of similar ideas
           that I've included in previous insights. The minister began by
           writing down for the number of years (140) and days since Brazil
           has been in a war with its neighbors. It was almost as if they are
           boasting. I've heard this line several times before - we have 10
           neighbors, yet we are at peace with all of them. One even quipped,
           'but we don't get nobel peace prize for this' -- an obvious
           reference to our own commander in chief who is now leading two
           wars in the world.
           So the emphasis, again, is about keeping the peace.  They
           emphasized again that Brazil does not at all want to be seen as an
           imperial power in any sense. I get the impression that they sort
           of look down on their Spanish counterparts in the sense that all
           of them have problems with each other on their borders, but look
           at a map of brazil and with the exception of Acre (which fell into
           Brazil's lap from Bolivia) and the borders since colonial times
           are unchanged.
           I talked to them about how I want to create a map of the Brazilian
           population migration between Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay. The
           census numbers are coming in the next couple weeks and they will
           get them to us, along with the academics who focus exclusively on
           this issue. The concept I want to emphasize at Stratfor is that
           where Brazil faces a major language/cultural/social barrier to the
           Spanish-speaking world, it can overcome with population migration,
           which is occurring at an accelerated pace. They acknowledge that
           Brazilian population growth has stopped and so now they are
           looking to import immigrant labor from neighboring states.  There
           is a deep concern for the sustainability of Brazilian industry and
           the expansion of a consumer market. They realize Mercosur is not
           working out. One said, so we will look to the alternative. I said,
           like what?  they mentioned NAFTA, even the EU.  This may be a big
           stretch, but the big idea is that they want access to markets,
           they especially want access to the Pacific (again, why brazilian
           relations with Chile and why the infrastructural links through
           Bolivia are so key.)  I find it funny in a way that Brazil always
           needs to be part of some sort of 'club.'  I suggested to them,
           given the very unique position Brazil is in now, with Argentina
           self-destructing and Brazil on the rise, that Brazil could form a
           new grouping, one that suits Brazil's needs first and foremost (i
           was drawing an example to Germany dominating the EU's financial
           matters post-financial crisis.)  
           Given their responses, and the responses I've gotten from others,
           I get the feeling that Brazil still has this complex. They aren't
           ready to think of themselves as a regional leader in that sense.
            They are still looking to other regional groups.  I think this
           will change with time.
           I asked about Brazil's military posture with Argentina, Again, the
           message they stress is about strategic coordination, partnership,
           a model for peace, etc.  THis is why Dilma is very symbolically
           making her first trip abroad to Argentina - to show that Brazil is
           serious about this continued close cooperation. They even say that
           while Arg is a mess now, they will recover. THey have the
           education levels, the resources, everything they need to
           resuscitate themselves. They bring up the line that was used in
           the 19th century in France - 'rich as an Argentine.' Obviously
           that's an extremely outdated concept now, but it sticks with
           Brazilians. What amazes me is that Brazilians don't even seem at
           all concerned about a re-emergence of Argentina. They see it as
           good for the Brazilian market. They also think they can afford to
           shift more troops away from the south to the Amazon.
           Speaking of the Amazon, they told me that now the postings to the
           Amazon are now reserved for high-ranking officers (I thought it
           was punishment!)  They are totally transforming how they are
           dealing with the Amazon. I've been invited to go out to a miltiary
           post in the Amazon next time, which I am definitely going to do.
           This brought us to the patrols along the borderland to guard
           against drug traffickers. They admit it's a huge problem. The
           corruption at these posts is more concentrated with the police
           than the military. 
           An interesting point one made on precursor chemicals -- he said
           one thing Brazil has done very well is control the quality of
           precursor chemicals entering the country. So, the cocaine being
           produced in Boliva, for example, is not the Grade A stuff that
           buyers in NYC want.  Instead it's lower grade stuff, crack, that
           will sell in Sao Paulo. So that's the unintended consequence for
           them -- cheaper, lower value drugs permeating the Brazilian
           market.  I brought up the idea of precursor chemicals coming into
           MX from China. He said he hadn't seen anything like that down here
           yet.  Most of the drug transport comes overland by trucks -- even
           in the smallest villages you have people who become part fo the
           supply chain, selling gasoline in exchange for allowing access
           through these small towns.
           The issue of air transport is a big problem for them.  Macedo
           Soares said we have a law that allows us to shoot down planes, but
           we can't apply it because of the United States (this was a major
           theme in the Wikileaks for anyone that read the Brazil cables.)
            This is a big source of frustration between the US and Brazil.
            They say it's ridiculous that Brazil and the US have the same
           strategic interest in stopping drugs, but the US won't allow them
           to shoot down the planes. They say it's too hard to follow the
           planes and try to interdict them at all the makeshift landing
           strips these groups have. 
           I brought up the issue of terrrorism, since Macedo Soares is
           pretty much the only Brazilian that was cited in the Wikileaks.  I
           asked him if it caused any trouble for him and he laughed and
           said, 'only jealousy!'  Apparently a lot of the other Brazilian
           officials were seriously jealous that he got all the fame, haha.
           Brazil defines terrorism in its constitution, and believes that is
           good enough. The big issue for Brazil is that it REALLY does not
           want to attract attention to itself as a terrorist target. They
           want to stay as low profile as possible. In that sense, Wikileaks
           really screwed with that strategy.  Brazil seems pretty obstinate
           in that they won't develop a terrorism list like the United STates
           or anything like that. As Macedo Soares told me, we capture plenty
           of 'terrorists' in Sao Paulo -- people in AQ, Hezbollah, even
           people connected to the 9/11 attacks. But we don't want to boast
           about it and we don't want the attention. It doesn't serve our
           interests, and we don't want the US to keep pushing us on this.
            They also use the excuse that developing such a terrorism brand
           could then be abused and used toward those groups that fight for
           the landless, etc.
           I asked if the GSI felt confident in its ability to actually
           surveil and capture a lot of these real 'terrorists.'  The
           response didn't look very confident. He said pretty much that it's
           just to hard. Sao Paulo has a huge foreign population. Borders are
           hard to control. That's the Brazilian attitude toward this thing.
           I can see now why this causes a lot of heart burn for the US.
            Also, considering how lax Brazil is about security at the
           airports, military installations, even at the presidential palace,
           i dont get the idea that Brazil is very aggressive about this
           threat. THey even acknowledge that maybe Brazil could become a
           target, as if could be inevitable. They say there is an Israeli
           disco in SP that is a perfect target, for example
           They also seem to think that Argentina brought the Hezbollah
           bombings on itself by not being subtle about its foreign policy.
           That's a picture of the Cathedral and me in front of the palace,.
            Brasilia is the strangest city I've ever been to.  It's so
           un-Brazilian. The city is flat, flat, flat -- made for bureaucrats
           in the 1950s. The city planner and architect is 103 years old,
           still living, and just got married 2 years ago (hah!)  He is
           really famous for this ultra, ultra modern, austere design.  No
           color, just huge spaces. The whole city is like being in a museum.
            It's laid out very oddly as well -- everything lies in one long
           stretch -- airport, then the banks and tv towers, then a cluster
           of all the hotels, then the cathedral, then all the ministries
           lined up, supreme court, congress and the presidential palace at
           the end. You could never got lost here.
           Off to Porto Alegre in the deep south tonight, which should be
           completely different.
           <mime-attachment.jpeg>
           <mime-attachment.jpeg>
","2011-01-06 19:16:30",1,"2012-03-26 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1737548_re-insight-brazil-national-security-terrorism-drugs.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,graphics@stratfor.com",""
1739377,"[Eurasia] [Fwd: INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Iskander Missile]
","   Just to remind everyone about the Iskander info from December.

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Iskander Missile                               
      Date: Sun, 13 Dec 2009 15:33:19 -0600                                   
      From: Lauren Goodrich <goodrich@stratfor.com>                           
        To: 'Secure List' <secure@stratfor.com>, George Friedman              
            <gfriedman@stratfor.com>                                          

   CODE: RU153
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources Moscow
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Russia's Defense Council (group of defense
   specialists from Ministry, Militaries & GRU) that report to Puty
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: 2
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: high
   HANDLER: Lauren

   The Iskandar is of great use to Russia and much focus. It has been highly
   successful both technologically and strategically. They consider the
   Iskander the most effective and deadly nonstrategic (and even perhaps
   strategic) ballistic missile in existence.
    
   It is better than the Oka, which worried the US so much because of its
   accuracy. But the Iskander is considered so much better. INF wiped out the
   Oka, but the Iskander falls underneath the INF-for now. The Oka was/is to
   replace the Elbrus, Tochka and Tockka-U and now the Iskandar replaces them
   both, but with a new and more modern highly accurate propellant of a
   short-range ballistic missile with a range of 500 km. Its accuracy is now
   averaging of 10 meters or better. Its high velocity allows the missile to
   penetrate antimissile defenses. It can fly low and make evasive maneuvers
   in order to prevent interception by surface air missiles. It has
   conventional warhead options and more recently Russia has been toying with
   adding a nuclear warhead (but not officially).
    
   There are two types of Iskanders. The 9K723 Iskander-M that is now
   deployed in Russia and the 9K720 Iskander-E that is for export. The
   former's range is of 450-500 km and the latter is of 280 km because of the
   MTCR limits.
    
   [he went on about the delivery vehicles with a ton of technical jargon I
   am  too tired to translate, but will if you're interested].
    
   Each Iskander operational battalions has two TEL reload vehicles, two
   command and control vehicles and a crew. Russia has created missile
   brigades for each system-this is new for Russia. (Each brigade ideally-in
   the future-- will have 3 missile battalions, with 12 TELs and 12
   transporter-load vehicles with a total of 48 ballistic missiles).
    
   The state tests for Iskander were done in 2004 and the batallions were
   formed and put into service by the end of 2007.
    
   Now the developers of the Iskander system are toying with further
   development of its warfighting capabilities, including the integration of
   the high-precision R-500 subsonic cruise missile. The R-500 is a more
   conventional version of the old Soviet 3M10 long-range cruise missile with
   a range of 2600 km, which was put on the Russian nuclear attack subs.
   These were eliminated also under INF-for now. This testing will be wrapped
   up by the end of 2009, since it has been successful thus far. After that
   it is a political decision in whether to put it into service, though 6
   missles with the R-500s are already ready to be implemented. 
    
   So at present everything that Russia has \"implemented\" falls under INF-but
   that seems to be a short time issue at present, which is why Russia is
   playing with the options.
    
   By the time 2015 rolls around, 60 Iskanders will have been produced and
   implemented.
    
   There are already 5 Iskander Missile Brigades in service and stationed
   across Russia.
   26th - Luga, near St. Petersburg (in training and implementation stage)
   92nd - in Kamenka, near Penza/Volga-Urals (done with training and
   implementation)
   103rd - in Ulan-Ude, in Siberia (in training and implementation stage)
   107th in Semistochni, near Birobidzhan/Far East (done with training and
   almost done with implementation)
   114th in Znamensk, near Astrakhan in the Northern Caucasus. (in training
   and implementation stage)
    
   These are the brigades that did have the Tochka and Tochka-U. The 92nd and
   107th were the first to get it and the 26th, 103rd and 114th are still
   currently being implemented and trained but should be completed by the end
   of 2011.
    
   Note that this does not include a Brigade in Kaliningrad, the two from
   Moscow district or the other Northern Caucasus brigades. These will have
   to wait until after the first 5 brigades are ready, trained and
   implemented. Also, the Kaliningrad decision is highly political, since it
   could reach into Germany or take out any American bmd system. If the R-500
   system were ever implemented, it would be able to take out targets all
   across Europe with highly precise accuracy-again, a political decision.
    
   The 630th Iskander Brigade - which trains the other Brigades - took part
   in the Russia-Georgia war. [LG: he wouldn't go further into how the
   Iskander was or the other missiles the Brigade uses were used in the
   war..... but I had heard of Iskanders possibly used against Georgian tank
   battalions in Gori, but never heard confirmation of such.... This seems
   like partial confirmation to me]. 
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-08-11 20:11:55",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1739377_-eurasia-fwd-insight-russia-iskander-missile-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com","scott.stewart@stratfor.com,eurasia@stratfor.com,military@stratfor.com",""
1743494,"Re: ANALYSIS FOR EDIT - ISRAEL/GREECE/TURKEY - Aegean Sea is an
 amazing place to be
","   please cc Marko for F/C. I'll have dinner and I may not be able to do it
   quickly.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Robert Inks\" <robert.inks@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Writers\" <writers@stratfor.com>, \"Emre Dogru\"
   <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, August 16, 2010 6:57:02 PM
   Subject: Re: ANALYSIS FOR EDIT - ISRAEL/GREECE/TURKEY - Aegean Sea is an
   amazing place to be

   Got it.

   On 8/16/2010 10:53 AM, Emre Dogru wrote:

     Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has kicked off his three-day
     long trip to Greece August 16 to hold talks with Greek Prime Minister
     George Papandreou. Netanyahua**s visit a** the first ever visit by an
     Israeli Prime Minister a** comes shortly after Papandreou visited Israel
     on July 23, where the two leaders vowed to boost ties between their
     countries and which was in its own right a historic visit, being the
     first time in 18 years that a Greek PM visited Israel. Both visits come
     as Israeli relationship with Turkey is deteriorating and on the heels of
     a Greek economic crisis that has made it evidently clear to Athens that
     it can no longer face down Ankara in the Aegean alone
     (http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100627_geopolitics_greece_sea_heart)

     Turkey a** Israeli relations have been deteriorating ever since Israeli
     military intervention into Gaza in early January 2008, which broke off
     Turkey-mediated peace talks between Israel and Syria. Relations suffered
     a major hit when Israeli Defense Forces raided a Turkish NGO-led aid
     flotilla bound to break the Gaza siege and killed nine Turkish nationals
     on May 31 [LINK
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100615_turkey_escalating_tension_over_flotilla_probe].
     While there have been efforts to mend the ties (LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100701_israel_turkey_maintaining_relationship)
     since then, Israel seems to be pursuing a strategy to distract
     Turkeya**s attention and divert its efforts to emerge as a regional
     power away from the Middle East in an attempt undermine increasing
     Turkish influence in the region.

     In this case, Greece is a perfect tool for Israel. Greece has long been
     Turkeya**s main rival, a competition which predates the Cold War. The
     two countries have managed to maintain a balance of power (which
     constitutes NATOa**s southeastern flank) until recently. However, as
     Greece has suffered economically -- and as Turkey establishes itself as
     the rising power in the region (LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary/20100603_israels_isolation_turkeys_rise)
     -- Athens has become far less of a threatening factor to Turkey's
     national security. For both Turkey and Greece the main point of
     contention is the Aegean sea, which is crucial for Greek control of its
     own mainland and thousands of islands. But to exert sovereignty over the
     sea, Greece has had to build up one of the most advanced air forces on
     the continent, a costly affair for a country of 10 million even when not
     facing a sovereign debt crisis of Herculean proportions. Greece has
     therefore attempted to offer a controlled draw down of forces to Turkey
     as a strategy the two can pursue to reduce tensions, but were largely
     rebuffed by Ankara not so much because Turkey still considers Greece a
     threat as much as because Turkey cannot draw down its forces when it is
     looking to expand influence in the Caucuses, Balkans and the Middle
     East.

     Therefore, it is the effect that it will have on Turkey that makes
     warming relations beneficial for both Israel and Greece. This is a
     change in political reality because Athens was a voiciferously pro-Arab
     state throughout the Cold War, with many PLO members finding refuge in
     Athens. Greece opposed Israel for two main reasons, first it was
     suspicious of the Turkish-Israeli alliance and second it did not want to
     find itself isolated from Arab energy exports during the Cold War. But
     with the Turkish-Israeli alliance -- which has been a mainstay of Middle
     Eastern balance of power for decades -- weakening, Athens sees a chance
     to send a message to Turkey. Israel, is hoping that Turkey would be
     concerned about an assertive Greece on its western border, while Athens
     wants to show Turkey that it has options to maintain the balance in
     Aegean. Reports alleging Greece will allow Israeli jet fighters to use
     its air space for training a** something that Turkey provided to Israel
     before a** could be a sign of such an understanding, as it could
     increase military plane dog fights over Aegean.

     However, Greece as an ally, has no means a substitute for Turkey from an
     Israeli point of view as it has no influence a** except for its EU
     membership and history of diplomatic support for Arab states - in the
     Middle East, which could bring value to Israela**s decision-making.
     Moreover, military cooperation between the two countries is not
     unprecedented. In the summer of 2008 the Israeli Air Force held what was
     called a \"dress rehearsal\" for an Israeli attack on Iran over Greek
     waters. The diplomatic move therefore comes down to sending a message to
     Turkey, both for Greece and Israel. Israel is sending a message to its
     embittered old-ally Turkey by offering a role to Greece, for which
     Greece is happy to play for given its pressuring circumstances. However,
     with Turkey trying to manuver itself into a leadership role in the
     Middle East, Israel's priorities overlapping with those of turkey in the
     Mideast and Greece too weak to pose a credible threat to turkey, it will
     take a lot more than flirtation between Israel and Greece to motivate it
     to change its current course.

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-08-16 18:41:46",1,"2012-03-10 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1743494_re-analysis-for-edit-israel-greece-turkey-aegean-sea-is-an.html","emre.dogru@stratfor.com","","writers@stratfor.com,marko.papic@stratfor.com,robert.inks@stratfor.com",""
1751633,"Re: Apparently I'm not making friends this time...
","   Make sure you resend this on Sat/Sunday so it doesnt get lost in Peter's
   emails... since he is away this week.

   This is FASCINATING stuff. I do understand the cold shoulder you are
   getting, I mean it is only natural. But I find it fascinating that
   Godfather is so liberally parading you around. I mean isn't that strange?
   You are pretty radioactive right now, I mean I'd try to distance myself
   from you as much as possible. So how does that work?

   Take care of course! And kick ass...

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Lauren Goodrich\" <goodrich@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>, \"Eugene Chausovsky\"
   <eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com>, \"Reva Bhalla\"
   <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>, \"Peter Zeihan\" <peter.zeihan@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Sunday, November 22, 2009 3:41:17 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Apparently I'm not making friends this time...

   So my godfather threw me a little dinner and drinks mixer tonight at his
   home tonight. It was filled with Kremlin ppl and I was so excited to be
   there after my disastrous day with the Kremlin Defense group. It was an
   odd evening though because alot of people seemed kinda irritated by my
   attendance (though the party was for me).

   Anyway, I walked up to a nice looking woman I didn't know personally--
   Medvedev's media representative, Natalia Timakova. I smiled nicely and
   offered her my hand in introduction. She looked down at my hand and
   without taking it, said really snidely \"I know who you are. We all know
   who you are. I just wanted to see who all the fuss was about.\"

   Apparently, she is really pissed off that I wrote that Putin would be
   willing to throw Medvedev under the bus should the reforms go wrong. It
   isn't that she doesn't believe it won't happen, but she didn't want it
   said publicly.

   Anyway, I'm on day 2 and apparently I should have waited until the Kremlin
   Wars blew over before returning to the motherland.

   *ah, sigh*

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1751633_re-apparently-i-m-not-making-friends-this-time-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","goodrich@stratfor.com,reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,peter.zeihan@stratfor.com,eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com",""
1753571,"Re: RESEARCH REQUEST - GREECE/ECON - client project
","   Attached

   Marko Papic wrote:

     Analysis: this is for the client call tomorrow morning (9:45am).

     Description:

     One of my theories is that Greek problems could have been forecast by
     the end of the Cold War. The Greeks have been livin' off the hog of the
     Cold War since 1945. They were a critical country (prevents Russians
     from getting to the Med) that allowed the West to keep Soviets plugged
     on the Balkans. Once Cold War ended, they were no longer important.

     Few things I need:

     -- Total Marshall Funds (in today's dollars if possible) Greece got.
     -- Total U.S. aid (or just transfers of money or whatever) from 1945 to
     today.
     -- Total EU structural funds forwarded to Greece from their accession to
     today.

     Thanks guys.

     Marko

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 Matthew Powers
 STRATFOR Research ADP
 Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
","2010-05-04 20:42:08",1,"2012-03-08 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1753571_re-research-request-greece-econ-client-project-.html","matthew.powers@stratfor.com","","marko.papic@stratfor.com,researchers@stratfor.com","attach/127/127508_Greece Aid From US and EU.xlsx"
1759597,"Special Report: Venezuela's Control of the Armed Forces
","    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Special Report: Venezuela's Control of the Armed Forces                    
                                                                              
    May 3, 2010 | 1307 GMT                                                    
    Special Report: Venezuela's Control of the Armed Forces                   
    Summary                                                                   
                                                                              
    Controlling Venezuela requires controlling oil and the armed forces, and  
    Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has managed to do both for more than a   
    decade. Challenges to this control have emerged, however, such as         
    enormous debt at the state-owned oil company and dissatisfaction in the   
    armed forces at the role of Cubans in the South American country's        
    military. Still, Chavez's hold appears secure so long as the oil          
    revenues keep flowing.                                                    
                                                                              
    Analysis                                                                  
    PDF Version                                                               
      * Click here to download a PDF of this report                           
                                                                              
    In Venezuela, the key to state control lies in two things: oil and guns.  
    Those with the guns, i.e., the armed forces, have the ability to          
    threaten the state, but those with the oil have the revenues to silence   
    the guns and the populace. Therefore, if the state is to control the      
    populace and the armed forces, it must control the oil.                   
                                                                              
    This model has worked relatively well for Venezuelan President Hugo       
    Chavez in his 11-plus years in power. The state has taken control over    
    the oil revenues, the population has been heavily subsidized and for the  
    most part, the loyalty of the generals has been purchased by the regime.  
    The situation has by no means been all rosy for the Chavez government,    
    however. The government is dealing with a host of issues right now,       
    including a growing electricity crisis, preparations for legislative      
    elections in September, striking workers and mountains of debt owed by    
    state oil firm Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), all of which require       
    expensive short-term fixes. Venezuela's pocketbook is being stretched     
    and the economy is in a state of slow decay, but enough funds appear to   
    be flowing for now to keep Chavez in control.                             
                                                                              
    A number of Venezuelan opposition media outlets (many of which influence  
    the U.S. media) regularly convey the impression that the Chavez           
    government is on its last legs. These reports paint a picture in which    
    disaffected generals in a military overrun by Cubans are on the verge of  
    rising up against the president. The so-called \"Cubanization\" of the      
    military has accelerated in recent years, and signs of stress are         
    visible in the regime - but not to the level portrayed in most political  
    analysis on Venezuela. In particular, the military has been impotent      
    against Chavez for years. In the following report, STRATFOR will take a   
    deeper look at the restructuring of the Venezuelan armed forces under     
    the Chavez government and the steps that the president has taken both to  
    enervate and appease the military as a form of political insurance.       
                                                                              
     Ensuring Loyalty with a Pay Bump                                         
                                                                              
    The Venezuelan government is wracking up a hefty bill for expensive       
    electricity generators, fuel imports to run those generators, debt        
    obligations to foreign oil firms and various forms of political           
    patronage in the lead-up to September legislative elections. At the same  
    time, Caracas needs to deny the armed forces the incentive to challenge   
    the government as the economic climate deteriorates. The short-term       
    answer for this is a pay bump for the armed forces.                       
                                                                              
    In his weekly television address, Alo Presidente, Venezuelan President    
    Hugo Chavez announced April 25 his government's intent to invest $145.5   
    million bolivars ($33.8 million) to raise the salaries of all ranks in    
    the armed forces by 40 percent, paid retroactively from April 1. No       
    other details on the division and distribution of the salaries by rank    
    were released. The Venezuelan military, which reportedly had not been     
    given a raise in more than four years, reacted with predictable           
    enthusiasm to the raises. Along with the rest of the Venezuelan public,   
    military personnel have been struggling with the country's skyrocketing   
    inflation, which a recent currency devaluation has exacerbated. With the  
    salary increase, Chavez claimed a \"recently commissioned lieutenant\"      
    will now make a salary of nearly 2,500 bolivars ($581) a month.           
                                                                              
    Special Report: Venezuela's Control of the Armed Forces                   
    JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images                                             
    Venezuelan army tanks during a military parade in Caracas on April 19     
                                                                              
    At first blush, a 40 percent wage increase for an 82,000-strong military  
    would appear to be a very large fiscal expense that would stress the      
    government's finances. However, two factors make this wage increase much  
    less financially burdensome. First, in light of the January devaluation   
    of the bolivar, local-currency proceeds from oil sales have now doubled,  
    meaning the government will have plenty of bolivars to support the wage   
    increase. Second, since the annual inflation rate - as reported by        
    Venezuela's central bank- stands at about 30 percent, the wage increase   
    only amounts to around 10 percent in real terms. The devaluation and      
    recent changes to the central bank's charter will likely increase         
    inflationary pressure in coming quarters, continuing the erosion of real  
    wages.                                                                    
                                                                              
     Cubanization                                                             
                                                                              
    The salary increase for the military also comes amid rising public        
    criticism of the politicization and so-called Cubanization of the         
    Venezuelan military. Former Venezuelan Brig. Gen. Antonio Rivero claimed  
    the \"the presence and meddling of Cuban soldiers\" in the armed forces     
    prompted his April retirement. Rivero said Cubans were operating at some  
    of the highest levels in the Venezuelan military, delivering              
    intelligence, communications, weapons and other training for the troops.  
    He also denounced the extent to which Chavez has undermined military      
    professionalism, and complained of the government's move to expand its    
    civilian militia. In the same address in which he announced the salary    
    increase for the military, Chavez addressed Rivero's complaints, saying   
    he was saddened by the general's attempt to draw attention to himself.    
    Chavez also defended his decision to embrace the Cuban military presence  
    by criticizing previous Venezuelan administrations for allowing the U.S.  
    military to staff the offices of the country's Army Command Headquarters  
    and manage Venezuelan state secrets.                                      
                                                                              
    While the opposition is eager to exploit the public relations sensation   
    of a general condemning Chavez's military policy, retiring generals and   
    the Cuban links into the Venezuelan military are not exactly startling    
    developments in Venezuela. The deep integration of Cuban forces in the    
    Venezuelan military has been an open secret in recent years. By having    
    enlisted soldiers and trainers percolate throughout the armed services    
    at virtually all levels, the Chavez government has been able to tap       
    Cuba's security and intelligence expertise to keep tabs on dissidents     
    and quash any potential threats to the government. For its part, Cuba     
    benefits from being able to influence the policies of a regional,         
    oil-producing heavyweight in South America. As Chavez's political and     
    economic vulnerabilities have increased, so have the opportunities for    
    Cuba to entrench itself in Venezuela.                                     
                                                                              
    This symbiotic relationship saw its clearest manifestation with the July  
    2008 passage of the Organic Law of the National Armed Forces. The law     
    redefined the Venezuelan Armed Forces from a politically nonaligned       
    professional institution (as stated in the 1999 constitution) to a        
    patriotic, popular and anti-imperialist body, as described in the         
    legislation. Chavez, not wanting to be caught off guard again by his      
    generals as he was during an April 2002 coup attempt, created the law to  
    develop a military primarily tasked with protecting and defending the     
    regime from internal threats. The Cuban government, wanting to ensure     
    Venezuelan dependency on Cuban security, is believed to have had a role   
    in one of the more controversial articles in the law. This provision      
    allows for foreign nationals (i.e., Cubans) who have graduated from       
    Venezuelan defense institutions to earn the rank of officer in the        
    Venezuelan armed forces.                                                  
                                                                              
    Another clause in the law forces officers into retirement if they are     
    not promoted after two years. Though such provisions are common in many   
    militaries, Caracas has used it with unusual frequency as a tool to       
    remove potential dissenters. Under this system, political allegiance can  
    easily supersede military merit when it comes to awarding promotions or   
    forcing resignations. Cuban advisers, who have been tasked with           
    identifying localized threats from within the armed forces, are believed  
    to have significant influence on these decisions.                         
                                                                              
    Chavez recently remarked in Havana that he felt like he was \"one more     
    Cuban.\" But many Venezuelans do not like the Cubans' methods or their     
    growing presence in the country, and Cuban integration in the Venezuelan  
    armed forces appears to have alienated several high-ranking members of    
    the military. Chavez, however, has knowingly incurred this risk, and      
    undermining powerful military leaders was likely one of his key goals.    
    Problematic generals can be forced into retirement while the Cubans       
    closely scrutinize the remaining military elite, who are given perks to   
    keep them loyal to the government.                                        
                                                                              
    While this comes at the cost of considerable expertise and                
    professionalism, Chavez's goal is to ensure that the upper ranks of the   
    military lack the operational control to challenge the president.         
    Mid-tier members of the military probably worry the Venezuelan president  
    more, however. After all, Chavez was a lieutenant colonel with the        
    charisma to rally a sizable portion of the military and lower classes     
    around him in his 1992 coup attempt and victorious 1998 presidential      
    campaign. As long as he is the one occupying the presidency, Chavez does  
    not wish to see any lieutenant colonels following in his footsteps.       
    Since Chavez lacks the same reach and oversight with the lower ranks of   
    the military than he has with the generals, pay raises are a way to help  
    mitigate potential threats emanating from below.                          
                                                                              
     Militia Insurance                                                        
                                                                              
    Chavez has also attempted to make up for any lingering dissent within     
    the armed forces through the creation of the National Bolivarian Militia  
    (NBM) in 2007, which has some 110,000 reservists, and has since           
    reportedly grown to roughly 300,000 (though these estimates are likely    
    exaggerated.) Efforts are also under way to bolster the NBM with peasant  
    recruits and perhaps to form a marine militia.                            
                                                                              
    Special Report: Venezuela's Control of the Armed Forces                   
    JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images                                             
    Members of the National Bolivarian Militia on Feb. 20 in Caracas          
                                                                              
    The militias present themselves as a security element operating at the    
    president's behest. Though the armed forces reputedly are responsible     
    for their training, the militia does not exhibit the skills of an         
    effective security force. Militia members are comprised of men and women  
    of all shapes, sizes and ages from Venezuela's lower classes. It is no    
    elite guerrilla unit; instead, it is a poorly trained peasant force. The  
    state uses their exercises and marches as photo opportunities to          
    demonstrate a military force ideologically bound to the regime. More      
    important, the incorporation of the NBM into the armed forces provides    
    the president a useful chip to keep the military elite in check.          
                                                                              
    The Venezuelan Defense Ministry has also strongly resisted the            
    deployment and armament of these militias. The ministry is believed to    
    keep tabs on the militia's activities by maintaining physical control     
    over it weapons arsenal, which consists mainly of AK-103 and AK-104       
    assault rifles acquired from Russia. The militia forces may not be        
    well-trained, but ideology can be a powerful motivational force, and      
    they could gain strength in numbers as Chavez continues his push to       
    expand the force. Chavez's purpose in building the militia appears to be  
    to make the cost of a coup too high, given the risk of a civil war        
    between the militia and the military.                                     
                                                                              
    Chavez*s militia-building efforts and apparent tendency to put more       
    trust in his Cuban advisers than his own generals may be sore points for  
    many within the military elite, but these are also the very tools he is   
    using to keep the armed forces too weak and divided to pose a real        
    threat to his regime. So far, the strategy has worked. And as long as     
    the oil revenues continue to flow, the electricity crisis is contained    
    and the military's wages can be paid, the Venezuelan president is likely  
    to have the political insurance he needs to hold onto power.              
                                                                              
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    (c) Copyright 2010 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
","2010-05-03 16:36:25",1,"2012-04-02 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1759597_special-report-venezuela-s-control-of-the-armed-forces-.html","noreply@stratfor.com","","allstratfor@stratfor.com",""
1760536,"CANVAS stuff
","   Our CANVAS source said on Dec. 17 that the U.S. administration was looking
   to cut off funding to pro-democracy groups, in general, but also
   specifically for Iran. He attended a NSC meeting on Dec. 18 where this
   came up, although the meeting was, according to him, not on Iran
   specifically.
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-06-18 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1760536_canvas-stuff-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com",""
1760720,"RE: [Fwd: Can the Euro Zone Cope with a National Bankruptcy?]
","   That was great.  Thanks so much for sending it.  Brilliant idea for them,
   too.  Refinancing the debt by issuing more.  But it will be interesting
   w/Greece further indebted and not yet proven, what they will have to pay
   to roll the debt (since this is new debt, and the maturing debt still has
   to be repaid.  Presumably it will have to be repaid with a new issue of
   its own.)

    

   How did Der Spiegel get that letter?  It is so interesting that they know
   exactly how much each bank had of Greek debt.  It would really be
   interesting to know more.  I wonder if they had more details in there. 
   Also, I can't believe HRE got that far out on the risk curve at the same
   time it was being recapped by the state.  Some things I just will never
   understand about German banks.

    

   Interesting thing on that last statement about inflation.  Nothing would
   be better for Germany than a continuously devaluing currency due to
   inflation.  And for non-stop debt issuance.  It will help their exports.

    

   On the CDS, they do a good job discussing the difference between the old
   days where you had to borrow bonds to short the currency and now where you
   can buy CDS on the gov't bonds.  Of course in those days, with floating
   currency, it gets cheaper (in your currency) to borrow the bonds as they
   go down, but also there is more leverage allowed in general these days,
   instrument allowed or not.

    

   One big difference w/CDS on countries vs. places like Bear is that, in
   theory, no matter how wide the spreads on the CDS get on a country's
   bonds, the country still refinances at the spread on their bond, not on
   their CDS which is often wider.  Also, Greece is a very long way from
   defaulting.  For it to actually not be able to pay, it would have to be
   requiring much higher interest rates.  In the meantime, they could still
   stop payment on public sector employees, etc.  They might not want to, but
   they could.  In the case of a place like Bear Stearns, they really did get
   totally shut out of the capital markets.  Hedge funds would buy CDS, then
   short stock, which made the CDS price go up, which made the stock price go
   down...the lower the stock price went, the less likely it was to be able
   to issue new equity in a quantity that would be needed.  To make it worse,
   those hedge funds were pulling their prime brokerage accounts, fueling
   fear and sapping liquidity.  That is a death spiral caused by CDS.  To me,
   the Euro countries are CDS somewhat exaggerating the actual risks of
   default in the bonds.  They are not actually (yet, anyway) creating a
   bigger risk of default in the bond.  To a certain degree, people writing
   about it causes some panic which makes it harder for Greece to refinance,
   but serious bond buyers (most of whom are much bigger than CDS
   speculators) understand that game.

    

   I am going to start reading Der Spiegel.

    

   Take care,

    

   Lisa

    

   Lisa Hintz
   Capital Markets Research Group
   Moody's Analytics
   212-553-7151

    

   Nothing in this email may be reproduced without explicit, written
   permission.

    

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, February 22, 2010 2:38 PM
   To: Hintz, Lisa
   Subject: [Fwd: Can the Euro Zone Cope with a National Bankruptcy?]

    

   I love Der Spiegel... This article is the reason why... long and thorough.

   Hope everything is going good and that Mauldin fiasco is over.

   Cheers,

   Marko

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: Can the Euro Zone Cope with a National Bankruptcy? 
       Date: Mon, 22 Feb 2010 13:26:40 -0600                    
       From: Marko Papic <marko.papic@stratfor.com>             
   Reply-To: Econ List <econ@stratfor.com>                      
         To: Econ List <econ@stratfor.com>                      

   Really long Der Spiegel piece... but it lays out some of the points that
   Rob just explained in his discussion.

 --

Can the Euro Zone Cope with a National Bankruptcy?

   As speculators attack the euro, Europe is facing a growing threat of
   national bankruptcies. The consequences would be dramatic for the whole of
   the continent, especially German banks, which are highly exposed to risky
   debt. EU politicians are willing to pay almost any price to help the
   beleaguered countries. By SPIEGEL staff.

   On Wall Street, they call Bill Lipschutz the \"Sultan of Currencies.\" He
   once turned the legendary investment bank Salomon Brothers into the
   world's largest foreign currency trading operation. Today Lipschutz runs
   his own hedge fund, which specializes in currencies.

   \"I still approach the market the same way. I still approach it as a 24/7
   market,\" says Lipschutz. He trades almost constantly, even at home in his
   apartment in New York's trendy NoHo district, where there are monitors
   everywhere. Every night, Lipschutz gets up at two or three in the morning
   to see what is happening on the European markets.

   Europe is indeed currently the hottest topic on the global financial
   markets. The value of the battered euro has been falling since the Greek
   government confessed to the actual scope of its debt -- and since it
   became clear that things are not looking significantly better in the other
   PIIGS countries (the acronym refers to Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece
   and Spain).

   There has never been this much uncertainty. No one knows whether the
   Greeks will manage to solve their problems, whether and how other
   countries will come to their aid, whether the crisis can be confined to
   Greece or whether it will spread like wildfire among the PIIGS -- and end
   up tearing apart the European currency union.

   All of this translates into excellent opportunities for foreign currency
   traders and speculators. They can either bet on a decline of the euro or a
   bailout for the Greeks in the form of a rescue effort by other euro zone
   countries. In the first case, the price of Greek government bonds will hit
   rock bottom, and in the second case it will rise.

   These are the kinds of conditions that make it possible to make a lot of
   money quickly -- but with devastating consequences, because speculators
   amplify trends and increase risks. If they bet on a Greek bankruptcy, it
   will become even more difficult, and expensive, to attract fresh capital.
   This could lead to a national bankruptcy or the feared conflagration -- or
   even the collapse of the euro.

   Problem Cases

   The financial industry is back to its old tricks, playing with the
   greatest possible amount of risk. In the past, it speculated with the
   debts of American homeowners and, as a result, triggered the biggest
   crisis in the world economy since the Great Depression of the 1920s. Now
   it is gambling with the debts of entire countries.

   After the failure of investment bank Lehman Brothers, it was governments
   that saved the financial markets from collapse. Now the governments are
   being attacked -- with the cheap money their central banks pumped into the
   market to keep the financial sector afloat.

   A new Lehman, triggered by speculation in government bonds, would be
   disproportionately more dangerous, because it would affect the entire
   world economy. And who would rescue the economy then?

   It is no coincidence, however, that the speculators have not zeroed in on
   the dollar, the British pound or the yen. Although the United States,
   Britain and Japan are also groaning under the burden of their debt, the
   euro is much more vulnerable, for both historic and political reasons.

   The weak southern countries, members of the so-called Club Med, have
   always been seen as problem cases. They have lived beyond their means and
   neglected the need to be competitive, they have built up -- partly in full
   view, partly cleverly hidden -- enormous mountains of debt, and they have
   avoided hard-hitting reforms. These conditions existed before they became
   members of the euro zone, and they did not improve afterwards.

   The other euro countries looked the other way. Initially, before the
   establishment of monetary union, they looked away because they didn't want
   to jeopardize their political goal of a European common currency. Later,
   it was because they themselves were benefiting from the euro. The German
   export economy, in particular, was able to expand continuously, unhampered
   by troublesome revaluation and appreciation that would have made its
   exports more expensive.

   Vindicating the Critics

   The euro has been a success story until now. During the recent financial
   crisis, the common currency proved to be a blessing at first, particularly
   for the smaller countries. But as debt levels increased, the problems,
   previously suppressed, became more and more evident, including the
   debt-based economy in the Club Med and the imbalances in terms of
   competitiveness.

   Even before the common currency was introduced in 1999, Nobel economics
   laureate Milton Friedman was warning that the euro would not survive its
   first economic crisis. He predicted that the euro zone could break apart
   after just 10 years.

   Ever since the Greeks were forced to admit that their national debt was
   much higher than originally claimed, the critics of a common European
   currency have felt vindicated. They had always warned that the northern
   countries would eventually have to vouch for the debts of the south, that
   the differences in economic development within the euro zone were too
   great and that a common currency could not function without a common
   economic policy.

   At the time, politicians ignored the concerns of many economists. Now they
   realize that this may have been a mistake. The European agreements that
   define the legal framework of the currency union do not include any
   provisions to account for the kind of crisis the euro is currently
   experiencing. For that reason, there are no instruments available to
   combat such a crisis.

   The Speculators' Sharpest Weapon

   The speculators' campaign against Greece began in early December. The
   rating agencies had downgraded the country and the press, particularly in
   English-speaking countries, was reporting more and more on the Greeks'
   doctored statistics and high level of government debt. The information
   wasn't entirely new, but it had its effect, quickly driving up the price
   of so-called credit default swaps (CDS).

   Credit default swaps are the same financial instruments that caused so
   much damage before the Lehman bankruptcy. They are considered partly
   responsible for the financial crisis. For this reason, many people called
   for strict regulation of credit default swaps after the Lehman bankruptcy.
   But nothing happened, and the results are now becoming apparent.

   A CDS contract is, in fact, a sort of insurance policy, which pays out
   when borrowers, like Greece, go bankrupt. Credit default swaps were
   invented so that lenders could hedge against such risks. In practice,
   however, they have become the speculators' sharpest weapon when they go on
   the offensive against companies or countries, because they make it
   possible to achieve a maximum impact with a relatively tiny investment.
   \"Dealers can turn the market with only 50 million,\" says one investment
   banker.

   Because CDSs are traded completely independently of the underlying
   securities, a gray market with a total nominal value of EUR26 trillion
   ($35 trillion) has developed outside the exchanges. The market has shrunk
   since the beginning of the financial crisis, after it became too daunting
   even for speculators. But now that money appears to be available in
   abundance once again, credit default swaps on government debt are among
   the hottest toys in the financial industry.

   Too Expensive

   The prototype of all currency speculators is George Soros, who kicked the
   British pound out of the European monetary system in 1992 and became a
   billionaire in the process. At that time, however, Soros had to take the
   trouble to speculate with real currency.

   \"Buying real bonds is much too expensive,\" says a bond trader today,
   explaining that this is something that only traditionalists still do. The
   new speculators are intent on quickly getting in and out of
   country-specific risk. Borrowing or even buying a bond, says the bond
   trader, would be too cumbersome.

   Because this is much more easily achieved with a CDS, there is a risk that
   history will repeat itself. Even Soros warns that CDSs are \"instruments of
   destruction.\" In the first part of the financial crisis, in the years 2007
   and 2008, a sharp increase in CDS prices was partly responsible for the
   bankruptcy of US bank Bear Stearns. Speculators forced governments to bail
   out British and German banks by unscrupulously driving up the costs of
   credit insurance.

   Now the hedge fund managers are betting on the insolvency of entire
   countries. The CDS rate for Greek government bonds doubled within the
   space of a few weeks. Speculators who get in at the right time can take
   advantage of fears over Greece to turn profits of upwards of 100 percent.
   For a time, it was costing investors EUR390,000 to hedge against the
   default of a 10-year Greek treasury bond with a face value of EUR10
   million. By comparison, the cost of a CDS for a similar German government
   bond was only EUR40,000.

   The speculative rise in CDSs has a real impact, in that it fans fear in
   the markets. In early February, Greece had to offer a yield of 6.1 percent
   in order to sell its five-year bond. This is twice as much as the current
   yield on comparable German bonds.

   Cunning Deals

   Investment banks are among the biggest beneficiaries of uncertainty in the
   markets. US investment bank Goldman Sachs, in particular, has its finger
   in several pies at once: as an adviser to the beleaguered governments --
   and on the side of the hedge funds that are speculating against the
   Greeks.

   Goldman Sachs was also involved when the Greeks tried to hide their debts
   from Brussels. In 2002, the US bank helped them exchange a portion of
   their dollar and yen debts, worth $10 billion, into euro debts. Goldman
   even granted Greece a loan of EUR1 billion, which was never reported as
   such to Brussels, and collected EUR200 million for its efforts.

   Politicians are now beginning to frown upon these cunning deals. \"It will
   be a disgrace if it turns out to be true that banks, which already took us
   to the brink of disaster, were also involved in the falsification of
   statistics in Greece,\" German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in a speech
   last Wednesday in the north-eastern German state of Mecklenburg-Western
   Pomerania.

   Nevertheless, even the new Greek government, which is breaking with many
   of the traditions of its predecessors, cannot manage without the US
   investment bank. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank were among the six banks
   that placed Greek government bonds worth EUR8 billion in early February.
   Perhaps the Greeks were trying to remain on good terms with the two
   powerful banks. Both were among the most active traders in CDSs, which are
   often traded on behalf of hedge funds.

   Fallen from Favor

   Of course, there are also the more traditional speculative transactions.
   In the week before last, speculators bet a record $10 billion on a falling
   euro on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange alone.

   \"The pressure on the euro isn't going away,\" predicts Sophia Drossos, a
   native of Greece who runs the currency strategy division at US investment
   bank Morgan Stanley. \"The downside risks to the euro right now are the
   largest that they have ever been since the single currency was launced.\"
   It has fallen out of favor, she says, and that sort of thing doesn't
   change that quickly.

   Not even a bailout of Greece would drive away the speculators, says Marc
   Chandler, chief currency strategist at the New York private bank Brown
   Brothers Harriman. If that happened, \"the market might go after other
   countries that have similar DNA,\" he said. \"And by DNA here I mean
   financial DNA: large deficits, current account deficits. And so, if Greece
   is bailed out by Europe in some fashion, it could be: let's go after
   Spain. Or: Let's see how deep the pockets are really going to be.\"

   It is precisely this concern -- namely, that they will have to come to the
   aid of one heavily indebted country after another, until they end up with
   a deficit of their own that's become too big to handle -- hat has Europe's
   politicians so worried. But do they even have a choice?

   German Finance Minister Wolfgang Scha:uble, a member of the center-right
   Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and his senior staff aren't just worried
   about the euro. They are also concerned that the German banking sector
   could be thrown out of balance once again if Greece defaults on its debt.

   Like Lehman All Over Again

   The senior Finance Ministry officials were alarmed by a letter from Jochen
   Sanio, the president of Germany's Federal Financial Supervisory Authority,
   known as BaFin. In the letter, which was addressed to Jo:rg Asmussen, a
   senior Finance Ministry official, Sanio urgently warned that the
   consequences of a Greek default could resemble the effects of the Lehman
   bankruptcy.

   German banks could probably cope with a Greek default, but if it led to
   the financial collapse of other countries, like Italy, Spain or Portugal,
   the consequences for the banking sector could be catastrophic, Sanio
   warns. If this happened, the financial market crisis would only get worse.

   In his letter, the BaFin president calculates what could happen to
   individual banks if securities from these countries lost 30, 50 or even 70
   percent of their value. The results are horrifying. According to Sanio's
   scenario, banks that were already hard hit by the effects of the Lehman
   bankruptcy would be the most vulnerable, particularly German mortgage
   lender Hypo Real Estate (HRE), which has since been nationalized.

   According to BaFin, HRE, which had to be propped up in late 2008 with
   government loan guarantees worth about EUR100 billion, holds by far the
   largest amount of Greek debt out of all German banks, with a total volume
   of EUR9.1 billion.

   What makes the situation so contentious is the fact that HRE increased its
   inventory of the troubled securities by almost 50 percent between March
   and September 2009 -- which was precisely the period in which it was being
   bailed out with government funds.

   Downward Spiral

   But other problem banks would also be affected by a Greek default.
   According to BaFin calculations, partially nationalized Commerzbank
   carries EUR4.6 billion in exposure to Greek debt. Germany's ailing
   state-owned banks are also heavily exposed, with LBBW and BayernLB having
   an exposure of EUR2.7 billion and EUR1.5 billion respectively.

   On the whole, German lenders hold about EUR32 billion in Greek securities,
   as well as another EUR10 billion in insurance holdings.

   The situation would spin completely out of control if, in addition to
   Greece, countries like Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain got into
   difficulties. German banks have acquired debt from these countries with a
   total volume of EUR522.4 billion. This is about 20 percent of the total
   amount owed to German banks by foreign countries, according to a BaFin
   internal memo. German banks are apparently the \"principal creditors in
   Spain and Ireland, and the second-most important creditor in Italy.\"

   In their report, the BaFin experts even draw parallels to one of the
   biggest national defaults in recent years. \"As in the case of Argentina,
   the countries named could face the beginning of a downward spiral,\" they
   write. As revenues decline in these countries, they are forced to impose
   drastic savings measures, which then hamper economic development.

   \"The main risk for the German financial sector lies in the collective
   difficulties of the PIIGS countries,\" the BaFin memo reads. \"Greece could
   possibly be the trigger for this.\"

   Betting on a Greek Insolvency

   The German financial regulators also assign a significant portion of the
   blame for the current situation to speculators. \"Among hedge funds, in
   particular, there are those that are betting on a Greek insolvency and a
   collapse of the euro zone.\"

   If a number of countries do in fact default, the BaFin experts believe
   that the euro zone will have arrived at the limit of its effectiveness.
   The EU countries, together with international central banks, could perhaps
   fend off attacks on Greece, but, as the BaFin document warns, \"in the
   event of speculation and financing problems in all of the PIIGS countries,
   serious problems could arise, along with substantial market disruptions.\"

   Partly as a result of the pressure caused by the Sanio letter, Scha:uble
   and Asmussen decided to clear the way for assistance to Greece. There are
   essentially three options, although two have already been discarded. The
   first option -- a joint bond issued by all the euro zone members -- was
   considered unrealistic right from the start. Assistance from the
   International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has helped countries out of
   financial crises in all regions of the world, is no longer an option.
   Scha:uble, for one, would consider it an embarrassment if Europeans were
   unable to help themselves.

   This leaves the third option, bilateral assistance, which Scha:uble has
   discussed with his French counterpart, Christine Lagarde. The French are
   particularly insistent that action be taken quickly, a point President
   Nicolas Sarkozy has repeatedly made with Chancellor Angela Merkel.

   Rescue Package

   Early last week, the German-French duo brought the remaining finance
   ministers in the euro group on board. Officially, all are still cloaked in
   silence and behaving as if bailouts will not be necessary. Nevertheless,
   the package of measures is beginning to take shape.

   The German Finance Ministry expects support for Greece to amount to
   between EUR20 billion and EUR25 billion. All the members of the euro group
   are expected to participate, including those, like Spain and Portugal, who
   also might find themselves needing help soon. The individual countries'
   contributions will be determined on the basis of their respective shares
   of the capital of the European Central Bank (ECB). Under this scheme,
   Germany would be responsible for about 20 percent, or EUR4 billion - EUR5
   billion.

   The assistance is to consist partly of loans and partly of loan
   guarantees. KfW, the German state-owned development bank, will process the
   German share. Scha:uble's experts want to tie the measures to strict
   requirements. For example, one credit tranche would only be transferred
   once the Greek government demonstrated that it had begun reforms of its
   pension system. The procedure is copied from the IMF. But is it legally
   valid?

   For years, the validity of Article 125 of the \"Treaty on the Functioning
   of the European Union,\" one of the EU's core treaties, was considered
   irrefutable in Germany's political debates. The regulation bars the euro
   countries from helping each other get out of debt.

   This passage is also partly responsible for having convinced a skeptical
   German population to accept the introduction of the euro. Article 125
   \"tolerates no compromises,\" says Otmar Issing, the former chief economist
   at the European Central Bank.

   New Provisions

   Hence the legal experts in the German Finance Ministry had to go to great
   lengths in order to justify the planned bilateral assistance. After an
   initial review, they concluded that the measures were inadmissible.
   Scha:uble was irate and ordered his staff to continue their review until
   all objections had been swept aside.

   Now, the official version is that the participating countries will not
   assume any of Greece's debt, which would be forbidden under the treaty.
   Instead, they will add new debt to the existing debt, something that the
   rules do not prohibit.

   Scha:uble's officials know all too well that the interventions will
   nevertheless strain the framework of the agreement and the equilibrium of
   the currency union. For that reason, they intend to introduce new
   future-oriented provisions once the current measures have been taken.

   They believe that the Stability and Growth Pact, the sole purpose of which
   is to coordinate the debt policies of member states, is no longer
   adequate, and that the euro countries will have to coordinate their
   economic policies with each other more effectively in the future. They
   also say that it will be necessary to develop a regulated procedure for
   national insolvencies within the framework of the euro group.

   European Inflation Union

   The Finance Ministry officials are also thinking about creating a new
   institution, modeled after the IMF, to handle future bailout efforts. This
   European fund would provide financing to countries in difficulty.

   It is still unclear how the new rescue fund will be financed. There are
   two conceivable options: Each member state's contribution could be based
   on either its share of ECB capital or the level of its deficit.

   The second solution would be fairer: the worse a country's financial
   policy, the higher its contribution. In other words, the biggest sinners
   would be required to pay the highest indulgence.

   Such an institution doesn't exist yet, which means that European
   politicians will have to make do with what they have. The financial
   strength of the donor countries could soon be depleted. This could force
   ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet to buy up the debt of the countries
   facing bankruptcy -- which is tantamount to printing money. Although this
   is prohibited under the Maastricht statutes, the EU finance ministers
   already demonstrated that the treaty could be amended if necessary when,
   in 2005, they stealthily relaxed the 3 percent criterion for government
   debt.

   Such a bailout would come at a high price: It would turn the European
   monetary union into an inflation union.

   ARMIN MAHLER, CHRISTOPH PAULY, CHRISTIAN REIERMANN, WOLFGANG REUTER,
   THOMAS SCHULZ

   Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan

  

 Marko Papic

  

 STRATFOR

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A

 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094

 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334

 marko.papic@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

 --

  

 Marko Papic

  

 STRATFOR

 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900

 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A

 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094

 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334

 marko.papic@stratfor.com

 www.stratfor.com

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

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   message.
","2010-02-23 01:33:01",1,"2001-03-13 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1760720_re-fwd-can-the-euro-zone-cope-with-a-national-bankruptcy-.html","Lisa.Hintz@moodys.com","","marko.papic@stratfor.com",""
1762408,"Re: [Eurasia] B3 - GREECE/ ECON - Greece says budget cuts will pass,
 but power	cuts threaten
","   But a meeting they have held every Sunday since their protest began drew
   far fewer people than previously on Sunday.

   I think the unions are far more interesting to me, especially as they
   start fighting against privatization plans (so rolling blackout thing is
   more serious than these \"indignant\" yahoos).

   This goes back to what Marc/Preisler were talking about in terms of
   Spanish anti-austerity protesters being pro-EU. These guys have no real
   political alternative. This is what we articulated in the annual. Their
   only \"alternative\" is to quit the euro, but they don't really want to do
   that.

   It is only in the core that there is a true political alternative:
   Euroskepticism.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Benjamin Preisler\" <ben.preisler@stratfor.com>
   To: \"alerts\" <alerts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, June 20, 2011 8:39:09 AM
   Subject: B3 - GREECE/ ECON - Greece says budget cuts will pass, but
   power        cuts threaten

   Greece says budget cuts will pass, but power cuts threaten

   20 June 2011, 14:24 CET

   http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/greece-eurozone-imf.aqm/

   (ATHENS) - Greece will get new tough budget action through parliament in a
   week's time to obtain vital funding, the government said on Monday despite
   power cuts and a general strike threat.

   Ahead of another visit by Greece's mission of creditors, the government
   also faces a vote of confidence called by the prime minister to ensure
   support in parliament for yet deeper measures to avert bankruptcy in the
   face of distress and anger among the Greek people.

   A finance ministry source told AFP that the government was \"confident
   about the adoption of this plan by parliament,\" where the Socialist
   government holds 155 seats out of 300 in a vote on June 28.

   And an EU source in Athens said representatives from the European Union,
   the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank, which last
   year bailed out Greece, would be visiting the Greek capital this week.

   Members of the tripartite mission, also known as the 'troika' in Greece,
   will be in Athens on Tuesday and Wednesday for talks with newly-appointed
   Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, the EU source told AFP.

   The finance ministry has indicated that the troika mission chiefs who have
   held quarterly audits of Greek finances will be heading the latest visit.

   Eurozone finance ministers said overnight that the next slice of 12
   billion euros ($17 billion) of an EU-IMF rescue package agreed last year
   would be released early in July to avoid default on current spending.

   But this slice of a total first loan of 110 billion euros would be
   released strictly on condition that Greece adopts the latest round of
   highly unpopular measures.

   Meanwhile on Monday Prime Minister George Papandreou, who shuffled his
   government on Friday as part of a new drive to tackle the debt, faced
   further difficult talks in Brussels on a big second rescue which Greece
   needs to have a hope of avoiding default on its debt in the months and
   years ahead.

   For the European Union, the issue of a second rescue raises much wider
   problems of how to ensure that banks, insurance companies and investment
   funds holding Greek debt bonds bear part of the cost.

   But they want to achieve this without provoking mayhem on financial
   markets and putting the eurozone at increased risk.

   The European Central Bank has warned EU policymakers that if the terms of
   a redrawing of Greek debt repayments is badly received on financial
   markets, the central bank may cease providing lifeline funding to the
   Greek banking system.

   Papandreou, facing opposition from some of his own members of parliament
   and lacking support from the opposition right-wing parties, called on
   Sunday a vote of confidence to bring his own supporters into line. The
   vote is expected during Tuesday night.

   Greek observers say that Papandreou should win both the confidence vote
   and the vote on the new budget measures, but could still face opposition
   politically and on the streets.

   The main Greek trade union organisation GSEE has called a general strike
   lasting 48 hours on a day to be chosen depending on events in parliament.

   The electricity generating company DEI has warned that the country could
   be hit by power cuts.

   This is because on Monday the union representing its workforce called for
   a rolling strike against a condition by the EU and International Monetary
   Fund that the business be privatised by next year as part of a wave of
   privatisations to reduce debt.

   This powerful union has long been courted by the governing Socialist
   Party. But a union official Costas Koutsodimas told radio Flash that the
   Greek people supported the employees in fighting the \"knock-down sale of
   the flagship in the public sector.\"

   The groups of so-called \"indignant\" people protesting against cutbacks and
   reforms by the government, who have been camping in Syntagma square in
   central Athens since May 24 said they would hold a new demonstration late
   on Tuesday during the vote of confidence.

   But a meeting they have held every Sunday since their protest began drew
   far fewer people than previously on Sunday.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2011-06-20 15:58:25",1,"2011-03-05 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1762408_re-eurasia-b3-greece-econ-greece-says-budget-cuts-will-pass.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com","eurasia@stratfor.com",""
1767718,"Re: [Eurasia] G3 - ITALY - Berlusconi says EconMin Tremonti primary
 candidate to	be successor
","   This would actually be very good news. Tremonti, like Draghi, is that
   typical Lombardian who knows how to run shit. When you think Italian --
   because we are in the US -- most of us don't think efficiency. But
   Northern Italians are probably the most productive people on the planet.
   Tremonti is from Sondrio, which is practically Switzerland how north it
   is. Tremonti is also strongly fiscally conservative, if he became the PM
   the markets would fucking go nuts. He could by his very personna probably
   shave off a full percent of Italian bond yields.

   Draghi, by the way, is from Rome, so he is less \"Lombardian\". So I
   actually have less confidence in Draghi than Tremonti.

   Either way, the problem for Tremonti is that he does not really have his
   own base. He is sort of a Lega Norde wing of Berlusconi's Forza Italia. So
   that is weird. I feel like he may be a sane guy in an insane house, which
   could mean that he goes in there, tries to fix shit, and gets canned. The
   sort of guy that should run ministry of finance, but you put him in charge
   and he gets whacked (think Kudrin in Russia).

   Either way, interesting move by Silvio. It could either get Tremonti
   wacked, or fix Italy.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Michael Wilson\" <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
   To: \"alerts\" <alerts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, May 4, 2011 2:35:40 PM
   Subject: G3 - ITALY - Berlusconi says EconMin Tremonti primary candidate
   to        be successor

   saying this now helps repair feelings in the northern league

   Italy's Berlusconi names possible successor
   http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110504/wl_nm/us_italy_berlusconi_tremonti
   By Paulo Biondi Paulo Biondi a** 43 mins ago

   ROME (Reuters) a** Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi named Economy
   Minister Giulio Tremonti as a potential successor to lead the center-right
   if he decides not to stand again in elections planned for 2013.

   The comments, during a television discussion show to be aired on
   Wednesday, follow a series of attacks on Tremonti in a newspaper owned by
   the Berlusconi family, underlining the uncertain climate in the
   center-right.
   Berlusconi, who has previously identified Justice Minister Angelino Alfano
   as a potential successor, said he would consider handing over the
   leadership of the government if a strong candidate emerges so he could
   focus on other duties within his ruling PDL party.
   \"If it is necessary for the center right to name me as a candidate to lead
   the government, then I will not step down,\" Berlusconi said during the
   recording of Porta a Porta, a well-known talk show on state-owned RAI
   television.

   \"But on the other hand if other personalities emerge, and we have several,
   Tremonti primarily...then I would be happy to maybe stay in politics but
   to focus on the PDL, leaving the leadership of the government to others,\"
   he said.

   Tremonti, widely credited for helping to shield Italy from the financial
   crisis, has close links to the Northern League, Berlusconi's sometimes
   unruly coalition ally.

   But his iron grip on spending decisions, his often abrasive personal style
   and perceptions that he is positioning himself to lead a post-Berlusconi
   government, have irritated many ministerial colleagues and other PDL
   leaders.

   Berlusconi has recently sought to play down signs of a government split
   after a newspaper owned by his brother carried a series of articles
   attacking Tremonti.

   Last week he issued a statement expressing full support for his economy
   minister, after many Italian newspapers reported that Tremonti had
   threatened to resign.

   The comments come ahead of regional elections that will show how badly the
   ruling center-right has been damaged by criminal cases against the Italian
   Prime Minister.

   Berlusconi faces several trials on charges including fraud and paying for
   sex with a teenaged nightclub dancer when she was below the legal age
   limit of 18. He denies all charges.

   (Writing by Catherine Hornby)

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com


   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2011-05-04 23:20:47",1,"2012-03-02 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1767718_re-eurasia-g3-italy-berlusconi-says-econmin-tremonti-primary.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com","eurasia@stratfor.com,peter.zeihan@stratfor.com",""
1768056,"Re: FOR EDIT - SECURITY WEEKLY - Russian intelligence network taken
	down	in US
","   Ben West wrote:

         Takedown of a Russian intelligence operation in the US

          

         The United States Department of Justice announced June 28 that an
         FBI counterintelligence investigation had resulted in the arrest of
         ten individuals on June 27 suspected of acting as undeclared agents
         of a foreign country - eight of the individuals were also accused of
         money laundering. An eleventh individual named in the criminal
         complaint was arrested in Cyprus on June 29 and has since posted
         bail. Five of the defendants appeared before a federal magistrate in
         the Southern District of New York US court in Manhattan on June 28.
         Three others appeared in the Eastern District of Virginia US federal
         court and two more in the US federal district court of
         Massachusetts, in Boston.

          

         The number of arrested suspects in this case makes this
         counter-intelligence investigation one of the biggest in US history.
         According to the criminal complaint the FBI had been investigating
         some of these individuals as long as ten years - recording
         conversations the suspects had in their home, intercepting radio
         transmitted and electronic messages and conducting surveillance on
         them both in and outside the United States. The case provides
         contemporary proof that the classic tactics of intelligence
         gathering and counter-intelligence measures are still being used by
         the US and Russia..

          

         Cast of Characters (according to details released in the criminal
         complaint)

          

         Christopher Metsos

         -         Acted as intermediary between the Russian UN mission in
         New York and Richard Murphy, Cynthia Murphy, Michael Zottoli and
         Patricia Mills.

         -         He traveled to and from Canada

         -         Met with Richard Murphy at least four times between
         February, 2001 and April, 2005 at a restaurant in New York

         -       First surveilled in 2001 in meetings with other suspects. 

         -         Left the US June 17 and detained in Cyprus June 29.

          

         Richard and Cynthia Murphy

         -         First surveilled by FBI in 2001 during meetings with
         Mestos

         -         Also met with the 3rd secretary in Russia's mission to the
         UN

         -         Communicated electronically with Moscow

         -         His safety box was searched in 2006 where agents
         discovered a birth certificate claiming he was born in Philadelphia,
         Pennsylvania. Local officials in Philidelphia claim to not have that
         birth certificate on record.

         - had electronic communications with Moscow

         -         Traveled to Moscow via Italy in February, 2010

          

          

         Donald Heathfield and Tracey Foley

         -         FBI searched a safe deposit box listed under their names
         in January, 2001

         -         Discover that Donald Heathfield's identity had been taken
         from a deceased man by the same name in Canada

         -         Engaged in electronic communication with Moscow

         -         Foley traveled to Moscow via Paris in March, 2010

          

         Michael Zottoli and Patricia Mills

         -         First FBI surveillance in June, 2004 during meeting with
         Richard Murphy

         -         Also had electronic communication with Moscow

          

         Vicky Pelaez and Juan Lazaro

         -         Surveilled meeting at a public park in an unidentified
         South American country in January, 2000

         -         Evidence gathered against Pelaez was the first out of the
         ten operatives

         -         Appeared to only communicate with a diplomat at the
         Russian embassy in the unidentified South American country

          -  also had electronic communication with Moscow

         Their Mission

          

         The FBI says that some of the eleven alleged undeclared agents moved
         to the United States as early as the 1990s, with some of the later
         accused (such as Anna Chapman) not arriving to the US until 2009.
         Nine of the suspects were provided with fake identities and even
         fake childhood pictures and cover stories (all part of what is known
         as a \"legend\") in order to establish themselves in the United State
         under \"deep cover\" - Chapman and Semenko used their own, Russian
         identitiy. The true nationality of the rest of the individuals is
         unknown, but several passages in the criminal complaint indicated
         that most of them were originally from Russia. Russia's Foreign
         Intelligence Service (SVR) allegedly provided the suspects with bank
         accounts, homes, cars and regular payments in order to provide
         \"long-term service\" inside he United States and, in return, they
         were supposed to \"search [for] and develop ties in policymaking
         circles in the US\".

          

         It is unclear exactly how successful the 11 accused individuals were
         at finding and developing those ties. The criminal complaint accuses
         the individuals of sending everything from information on the gold
         market from a financier in New York (a contact that Moscow
         apparently found as helpful, and encouraged further contacts with
         the source) to seeking out potential college graduates headed for
         jobs at the CIA. The criminal complaint outlines one recorded
         conversation in which Lazaro tells Pelaez that his handlers were not
         pleased with his reports because he wasn't attributing them
         properly. Pelaez then advises Lazaro to \"put down any politician\"
         (as in write the name of a US politician to attribute the
         information to)  in order to appease their handlers, indicating that
         the alleged operatives did not always practice scrupulous tradecraft
         in their work. Improperly identifynig sources in the field
         ultimatley hampers the value of the information, since it cannot be
         adequately assessed without knowing where it came form. If these
         kinds of shortcuts were normaly taken by Pelaez, Lazaro and others,
         then it would reduce their value to the SVR and the harm that they
         may have potentially done to the US. The suspects were allegedly
         instructed by their operators in the US and Russia to not pursue
         high level government jobs, as their legends were not strong enough
         to withstand a significant background investigation, but they were
         certainly encouraged to make contact with high level government
         officials to have a finger on the pulse of policymaking sentiment in
         Washington.

          

         Tradecraft

          

         The criminal complaint alleges that the suspects used traditional
         tradecraft of the clandestine services to communicate with each
         other and send reports to their operators. The alleged operators
         transmitted messages to Moscow containing their reports encrypted in
         radiograms - short burst radio transmissions that appears as morse
         code - invisible ink and met in third countries for payment and
         briefings. They used brush passes (the act of quickly exchanging
         materials discretely) flash meets (apparently innocuous, brief
         encounters) to exchange information, equipment and to transfer
         money. The complaint also gave examples of operatives using coded
         phrases with each other and with their operators to confirm each
         other's identities.

          

         There were new twists, as well. Operatives used email to set up
         electronic dead drops to transmit encrypted intelligence reports to
         Moscow and several operatives were found to have similar computer
         programs that used steganography (the practice of embedding
         information in seemingly innocuous images) to encrypt messages.
         Chapman and Semenko used private, wireless networks hosted by a
         laptop programmed to only communicate with another specific laptop.
         FBI agents claim to have identified such networks (and may have
         intercepted the messages transmitted) temporarily set up while a
         suspect and known Russian diplomat were in proximity together. These
         meets occurred frequently and allowed operatives and their operators
         to communicate covertly without actually being seen together.

          

         The operations were largely run out of Russia's UN mission in New
         York, meaning that when face-to-face meetings were required,
         declared diplomats from the UN mission would do the job. They handed
         off cash to Christopher Metsos on at least two occasions, who in
         turn distributed the cash to various other operatives (which
         provided the grounds for the charge of money laundering) but the
         actual reports and information gathered from the field appears to
         have gone directly to Russia, according to the criminal complaint.

          

         It is important to note that the accused individuals were not
         charged with espionage - the charge of acting as a non-declared
         agent of a foreign state is less serious. The criminal complaint
         never revealed that any of the eleven individuals received or
         transmitted classified information. This doesn't mean that the
         suspects weren't committing espionage (certainly investigators will
         learn more about their activities during interrogation and during
         preparation for the trial) but according to their original guidance
         from Moscow, these individuals were tasked with establishing deep
         cover. This means that the suspects were supposed to position
         themselves so that they would gain access to valuable information
         (and here it is important to point out that \"valuable\" is not
         synonomous with \"classified\") through their established occupation
         or social life. This allows agents to get access to what they want
         without running unnessecary operational security risks to do so. Any
         intelligence operation must balance operational security with the
         need to gather intelligence. Too much security and the operative
         isn't able to do anything, too aggressive of information collection
         and the handlers risk losing an intelligence asset. The fact that
         these people were deep cover means that the SVR had likely invested
         quite a bit of time and money into cultivating and training these
         people - likely well before they arrived in the US during the early
         to mid 1990s. We can see that balance in this group of individuals.
         They are certainly actively meeting with potential sources, sending
         back reports to Moscow and interacting with declared Russian
         diplomats in the US, all of which bring an inherent risk of being
         caught. However, they certainly took security measures, too. There
         is no evidence that they attempted to reach out to people that would
         have fallen outside their natural professional and social circles,
         which would have raised suspcion. In many ways, these individuals
         acted more as recruiters, seeking out people with access to valuable
         information, rather than agents trying to gain access to that
         information first hand. However, it must be reiterated that all we
         knnow now is based on what was released in the criminal complaint.
         An investigation that lasted this long surely has stacks of evidence
         (much of it likely classified) that wasn't included in the
         complaint. 

          

         Counterintelligence

          

         However, the network of operatives was under heavy surveillance by
         US counterintelligence agents. FBI agents in Boston, New York and
         Washington DC maintained surveillance on the suspects over a ten
         year period, employing its elite Special Surveillance Group to track
         suspects in person; video and audio recorders in their homes and at
         meeting places to record communications; searches at their homes and
         of security deposit boxes at banks to search for sensitive
         information; intercepted email and electronic communications; and
         deployed undercover agents to entrap the suspects. 

          

         Counterintelligence operations don't start out of thin air.  There
         has to be a tip or a clue that puts investigators on the trail of a
         suspected and (especially) undeclared foreign agent. As suggested by
         interview with neighbors of the arrested suspects, none of them
         displayed unusual behavior that would tip them off. All had deep
         (yet not airtight) legends going back decades that allayed everyday
         suspicion. The criminal complaint did not suggest how the US
         government came to suspect these people of reporting back to the SVR
         in Russia, however we noticed that the timing of the initiation of
         these investigations coincides with the time period that a high
         level SVR agent stationed at Russia's UN mission in New York began
         passing information to the FBI. Sergei Tretyakov (who told his story
         in the book \"Comrade J\" - an abbreviation of his SVR codename,
         Comrade Jean), passed information on to the FBI from within the UN
         mission from 1997 to 2000 before he defected to the US in October,
         2000. According to the criminal complaint, seven of the eleven
         suspects were connected to Russia's UN Mission.  Though, evidence of
         those connections did not come until 2004 and as late as 2010.  The
         timing of Tretyakov's cooperation with the US government and the
         timing of the initiation of the investigations against the suspects
         arrested this week suggests that Tretyakov may have been the
         original source that tipped off the US government. So far, the
         evidence is circumstantial - the timing and the location match up -
         but Tretyakov, as the SVR operative at the UN mission, certainly
         would have been in the position to know about the operations
         involving most of the individuals arrested June 27.   

          

         Why now?

          

         On the other end, the criminal complaint also does not clarify why
         the eleven suspects were arrested when they were. Nothing in the
         criminal complaint indicates why, after over ten years of
         investigation, the FBI decided to arrest the suspects on June 27. It
         is not unusual for investigations to be drawn out for years, as much
         information on tradecraft and intent can be learned by watching
         foreign intelligence agencies operate without knowing they are being
         watched. as well as revealing additional contacts and having time to
         learn more individuals in the network As long as the suspects aren't
         posing an immediate risk to national security (and judging by the
         criminal complaint, they were not) there is little reason for the US
         to show their hand to Russia and end an intelligence gathering
         operation of their own.

          

         There has been supposition that Anna Chapman was a flight risk and
         so the agents arrested her and the other in order to prevent them
         from escaping the US. However, a number of the suspects left and
         came back to the US multiple times - investigators appear not to
         have been concerned with past comings and goings, and it isn't clear
         why they would have been concerned about Anna leaving.

          

         The timing of the arrests so soon after US president Obama met with
         Russian president Medvedev also raises questions of political
         motivations. Medvedev was in DC to talk with Obama as recently as
         June 25 (when the criminal complaint was officially filed by the
         FBI) in an attempt to patch over relations between the two
         countries. Revelations of a network of undeclared foreign agents
         attempting to spy on US activities has can have a very negative
         affect on overall relations between two countries in the past. In
         this case, officials from both countries made public statements
         saying they hoped this doesn't damage ties. The timing raises the
         question of political motivation; however there is not yet any
         indication that the timing is related to political motivation.

          

         Whatever the motivation, now that the FBI has these suspects in
         custody, it will be able to interrogate them and likely gather even
         more information on the operation. The charges for now don't include
         espionage, but the FBI could very well be withholding this charge in
         order to provide an incentive for the suspects to plea bargain. We
         expect much more information on this unprecedented case to come out
         in the following weeks and months - providing reams of information
         on Russian clandestine operations and their targets in the US.

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890
","2010-06-30 19:35:22",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1768056_re-for-edit-security-weekly-russian-intelligence-network.html","colby.martin@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1769113,"Re: INSIGHT - AUSTRALIA - Tax - CN65
","   The big miners have signed an MOU with the government on the Mineral
   Resources Rent tax, which is a substantial climbdown by the government,
   but which removes one of three obstacles to Gillard as she prepares to
   call a general election at the end of August. Gillard will now tackle her
   other two immediate problems - the big increase in the number of asylum
   seekers arriving by boat, which is a hot political issue, and the
   reintroduction of some kind of move to reduce carbon emissions. Rudd's
   decision to drop the emissions trading scheme after championing climate
   change as \"the most urgent issue facing the planet\" were, along with the
   mining tax, the reason Labor dumped him as leader 8 days ago. 
   Gillard is likely to deal with these two issues in the next fortnight in
   order to enable her to call this early election. The asylum seekers issue
   will probably be resolved by Australia and a number of other SE Asian
   nations, including Indonesia, supporting a proposal to process asylum
   seekers to the region  on East Timor. At present those seeking asylum in
   Australia are detained on Christmas Island, which is full to overflowing. 
   The Mineral Resources Rent Tax, with its lower rate of 30 per cent, will
   only cover iron ore and coal, not all resources. On shore oil and gas,
   including coal seam gas, will now come under the Petroleum Resources rent
   tax, where the rate is 40 per cent. Other big minerals like gold,
   uranium(Australia is the world's biggest producer) and copper are not
   covered, but discussions will go on about them. 
   There is to be a task force, chaired by Don Argus, former chairman of the
   world's biggest miner, Australia-based BHP Billiton, to work through these
   and other outstanding issues, and to join in the drafting of the
   legislation.
   It is important to note that the legislation will not be presented to
   Parliament for about one year - in other words after the election. If
   Gillard loses the election, then the whole thing will be dropped, as the
   Coalition remains opposed to it. However the big miners have left
   Opposition leader Tony Abbott high and dry by signing up with the Gillard
   government - after he had supported them tooth and nail. Gillard's sure
   footed start as PM has white anted him, the polls have turned back to
   Labor, and it is hard to see her not being elected. The big miners clearly
   drew that conclusion in coming to a deal.
   The Government intends to pay for its concessions to the miners by
   dropping plans to cut company tax by one per cent for the time being. 
   Incidentally, while it is true that Australia always needs foreign
   capital, that argument can be exaggerated. First, as Matt indicated, it
   has not inconsiderable capital of its own, largely due to a very high
   savings ratio and investment in the nation's super funds rose by $30
   billion last quarter to over $1 trillion. It also has several
   multinationals with substantial overseas assets like BHP Billiton
   (mining), Westfield (property and retailing), Boral (building materials)
   Leighton Holdings (construction) Santos (oil), Macquarie (Banking) etc
   etc. It also has had no problem in attracting capital in the past 50
   years, and while some of the miners were threatening to withdraw future
   projects, they continued to invest even during the dispute, as the numbers
   show. It will still require more capital as it moves towards challenging
   Saudi Arabia as the world's leading energy producer in 15 years' time. The
   most unexploited mineral here is uranium, because the government limits
   mining to three mines and has not embraced nuclear power. 
   Colin
   On 02/07/2010, at 11:29 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

     SOURCE: CN65
     ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
     natural resources
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator.  Source is 
     well-connected politically, militarily and economically.  He has become
     a
     private businessman helping foreign companies with M&As
     PUBLICATION: Yes but with no attribution
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1/2
     DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

     Gillard claims there will be no RSPT.  She says, however, that there
     will be a Mineral Resources Rent Tax.
     These are the details of the proposed changes to the tax regime:
       * coal and iron ore to be subject to the tax at a threshold rate to be
         changed from 5% to LTBR +75
       * the headline rate for these resources to be 30%
       * tax will not be restrospective, i.e. existing mines will not be
         subject to the tax until they hit the hurdles
       * oil, gas, CSG to be subject to the PRRT regime at the rate of 40%
     The changes will reduce the tax take by A$1.5 billion, but the total tax
     was anticipated to be A$9 billion per annum, so there is still a large
     tax take.
     The big issues will be as follows:
       * the government will claim that the small miners chasing other
         resources such as moly, nickel, manganese, gold, uranium, etc won't
         be affected
       * the opposition will argue it is still a massive tax take, but will
         be forced to face compliance by BHP, and Rio, so they will highlight
         the impact on small businesses that hang the off the mining industry
       * the other issue will be that the money is going from the states to
         Canberra, further exacerbating vertical fiscal imbalance

     Source also sent this link on the tax: 
     http://production.miningaustralia.com.au/news/mining-tax-slashed?utm_source=20100702&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletters

     Source sent this from another of his politico buddies:
     http://www.futuretax.gov.au/documents/attachments/Fact_Sheet_resource_taxation.pdf
     It looks like no change between the RSPT and the MRRT in terms of the
     treatment of State Royalties....
     \"The MRRT will also provide a full credit for state royalties paid by a
     taxpayer in respect of a mining project. Unused credits for royalties
     paid will be uplifted at the long term government bond rate plus 7 per
     cent, as per other expenses. Unused royalty credits will not be
     transferrable between projects or refundable.\"
     This policy debacle has been a missed opportunity for States to point
     out the flaws in Comm-State financing arrangements.  The lone voice has
     been Colin Barnett in WA, but his voice alone is not strong enough - we
     need more Liberal Premiers.  I fear this debate will have to wait
     another 5 years before we get anywhere. Nonetheless, the LNP needs to be
     ready to argue the case for more control over State revenue.  This will
     undoubtedly involve a higher and broader GST at some stage in the next
     decade.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-07-02 10:20:55",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1769113_re-insight-australia-tax-cn65-.html","chapman@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com,marko.papic@stratfor.com,jay.young@core.stratfor.com",""
1769589,"Re: [Eurasia] Fwd: SPIEGEL - An EU Protectorate
","   No, it is way too harsh of words used. Greece has to report progress to
   Commission every 4 months, standard operating procedure for EU when it
   puts oversight over someone. It is oversight, more than control. Greece
   can do whatever the fuck it wants, but there are consequences... i.e. the
   Commission says Athens is doing poorly and investors collapse Greece.

   Peter Zeihan wrote:

     according to this article, the EU already has de facto financial control
     over greece?
     seriously?
     ----- Forwarded Message -----
     From: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Econ List\" <econ@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Tuesday, February 9, 2010 3:33:42 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
     Subject: SPIEGEL - An EU Protectorate

                               An EU Protectorate

How Brussels Is Trying to Prevent a Collapse of the Euro

     By Armin Mahler, Christian Reiermann, Wolfgang Reuter and Hans-Ju:rgen
     Schlamp

     The problems facing Greece are just the beginning. The countries
     belonging to Europe's common currency zone are drifting further and
     further apart, and national bankruptcies are a distinct possibility.
     Brussels is faced with a number of choices, none of them good.

     Men like Wilhelm No:lling, former member of the German Central Bank
     Council, and Wilhelm Hankel, an economics professor critical of the
     euro, have been out of the spotlight for years. In the 1990s, they
     fought against the introduction of the common currency, even calling on
     Germany's high court to prevent the creation of the euro zone. But none
     of it worked.

     Now both men are in demand again, and the old euro critics' beliefs are
     more relevant than ever. Were the skeptics right back then, when they
     said Europe wasn't ready for the euro zone? Were the differences too
     great and the politicians too weak to ensure a strict and stable course?

     \"The euro should really be called the Icarus,\" Hankel suggested back
     then. He predicted the currency would meet the same end as the hero of
     Greek legend, who paid for his dream of flight with his life.

     Is the euro's high flight over now too? The news these days is alarming.
     It's causing a commotion on financial markets and intense discussion in
     capitals across Europe, as well as in Frankfurt, seat of the European
     Central Bank (ECB).

     Brussels took a hard line with Athens last week. Greece must cut costs
     drastically under close European Union supervision, a sacrifice of a
     share of its sovereignty. Risk premiums for Greek government bonds have
     risen drastically, and the country has to pay higher and higher charges.

     The Possibility of State Bankruptcies

     Accruing debt is becoming increasingly expensive for other countries in
     the euro zone as well, among them Portugal and Spain. The southern
     members of the euro zone are especially being eyed with mistrust.
     Speculators are betting that bonds will continue to fall and that,
     eventually, the countries won't be able to borrow any more money at all.
     State bankruptcies are seen as a possibility.

     \"We've reached a point where it's possible to deal individual countries
     a lethal blow by downgrading their credit and boycotting their
     government bonds,\" No:lling warns.

     Many are now wondering how the stronger euro-zone countries should react
     -- whether it's possible to help the weaker ones without jeopardizing
     themselves and the common currency. Furthermore, there is a risk that
     euro-zone members will continue to grow apart economically, a trend that
     could cause the monetary union to eventually collapse.

     Doing nothing is not an option. In light of the national debt in Greece,
     Portugal, Spain and Ireland, the euro zone is in danger of transforming
     from a \"common destiny to a common liability,\" No:lling says.

     And so it won't be any ordinary meeting when finance ministers from the
     16-euro zone countries meet for a regularly scheduled get-together in
     Brussels next Monday. The European Commission plans to assign each
     country homework to be completed in the coming years.

     Cohesion and Stability

     The Commission doesn't hold Greece solely responsible for the current
     euro woes. Experts close to Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner
     Joaquin Almunia say nearly every participating country is compromising
     the cohesion and stability of the common currency.

     \"The combination of decreasing competitiveness and excessive
     accumulation of national debt is alarming,\" the experts wrote in a
     recent report, adding that if the member countries don't get their
     problems under control, it will \"jeopardize the cohesion of the monetary
     union.\"

     Differing economic development within the euro zone and a lack of
     political coordination are to blame, they say. In the more than 10 years
     since the euro was introduced, the Commission states, it has become
     clear that simply controlling the development of member states' budgets
     is not enough. What that means, more concretely, is that the stability
     provisions stipulated in the Maastricht Treaty to regulate the common
     currency aren't working, and member states need to better coordinate
     their financial and economic policy measures.

     That is precisely what euro skeptics have said from the beginning --
     that a common currency can't work in the long run without a common
     economic and financial policy. The member countries' governments ignored
     these objections, unready to give up a further aspect of their national
     sovereignty.

     Now politicians are facing a difficult decision: Should they continue as
     they have, thus potentially undermining the euro's ability to function?
     Or should they yield a portion of their national sovereignty to
     Brussels?

     Without common policies, the individual countries drift further and
     further apart. Before the euro was introduced, exchange rate adjustments
     served to dispel tensions. Now the common currency zone lacks the option
     of adapting by revaluing currencies.

     Watching with Alarm

     EU officials are watching with alarm as the various euro-zone countries'
     competitiveness diverges sharply. The differences are especially large
     between countries like Germany, the Netherlands and Finland, which are
     characterized by current account surpluses, and countries with high
     budget deficits. Along with Greece, this second category includes
     especially Spain, Portugal and Ireland.

     These countries' competitiveness has dropped steadily since the euro was
     introduced. They lived on credit for years, seduced by the unusually low
     interest rates within the euro zone, and imported far more than they
     exported.

     When demand collapsed in the wake of the global financial crisis,
     governments jumped in to fill the gap, with serious consequences -- debt
     skyrocketed. Spain's budget deficit was at 11 percent last year, while
     Greece's was nearly 13 percent. Such high debt is simply not sustainable
     in the long term.

     In the past, the solution for these countries would have been to devalue
     their currency, which in turn would make imports more expensive and
     exports cheaper. Such a move would stimulate their national economies
     and strengthen their competitiveness.

     Now, however, these countries must submit to a drastic therapy regime at
     the hands of the European Commission. They need to balance their
     budgets, while simultaneously creating more competition on the labor and
     goods markets.

     The directives from Brussels translate into difficult sacrifices for the
     citizens of the affected countries. Employees will have to scale back
     wage demands for years, and civil servants will see their salaries cut.
     Ireland has already embarked on this path; Greece and Spain will follow.

     Is Germany to Blame?

     The Commission has recommended that Spain, booming until recently,
     radically restructure its economy. Spain must significantly shrink its
     bloated construction sector and focus on economic sectors with higher
     productivity.

     France and Italy have been given homework assignments of their own. Both
     countries are being asked to apply austerity packages and increase
     labor-market flexibility. France must also get its significant welfare
     and unemployment expenses under control.

     Resentment is growing in the countries most directly affected. But that
     frustration is not directed, as might be expected, toward the
     Commission. Instead, it is increasingly surplus countries coming under
     fire -- with Germany at the forefront.

     Representatives from Spain and Portugal especially -- but also from
     France -- hold Germany accountable for their current woes. They aren't
     alone in that opinion either. \"The Greek crisis has German roots,\" says
     Heiner Flassbeck, chief economist at the United Nations Conference on
     Trade and Development (UNCTAD), in Geneva. It was German wage dumping
     that got the country's European neighbors in trouble, he says.

     At Its Neighbors' Expense

     EU officials don't phrase it quite so strongly, but they still accuse
     Germany more than any other country of gaining advantages for itself at
     its neighbors' expense, using its policy of low wages to make German
     products increasingly attractive relative to those from other countries.

     As a precautionary measure, officials at Berlin's Finance Ministry have
     gathered arguments that Finance Minister Wolfgang Scha:uble can put
     forward in the country's defense. Germany's position is that the
     countries now in crisis are themselves at fault for their situation.
     They lived beyond their means for years, the German government says,
     financing their economic boom on credit. Now the financial crisis has
     revealed their weaknesses.

     Germany didn't have it easy with the euro in the beginning either,
     continues the argument, because the country wasn't competitive compared
     to other member countries -- but it regained its strength with a great
     deal of trouble and effort, through reforms.

     German officials point to the fact that the country made its labor
     market more flexible through the Hartz package of welfare reforms and
     say that state finances are more stable than before, despite the crisis.
     They add that taking this same path would lead the currently troubled
     countries out of the crisis. And, they continue, the federal government
     is not responsible for lagging wage growth because, in Germany, salaries
     and wages are negotiated between employers and unions rather than being
     imposed by the government.

     The German government also claims no responsibility for the country's
     export surplus. German firms are competitive not because of government
     policy, it says, but because of entrepreneurial decisions and the
     preferences of customers around the world.

     Create More Competition

     When this debate flared up recently within the euro-zone countries,
     Scha:uble received support from the top for his position. The southern
     members of the euro zone shouldn't be ungrateful, warned ECB President
     Jean-Claude Trichet. After all, he reasons, Germany funded the deficits
     with its surpluses. Nonetheless, the Commission called on Germany to
     make further changes as well. The country should boost domestic demand,
     increase investment in infrastructure and create more competition in the
     service sector.

     The Commission believes the currency union can exist in the long term
     only if member countries' governments implement reforms and coordinate
     their economic policies. Scha:uble's experts agree. They are proposing
     -- partly with an eye toward mollifying France -- a common German-French
     initiative.

     Both countries' governments should work toward better coordination, the
     German financial experts say. Merely monitoring deficits has turned out
     to be inadequate. In the future, they suggest, euro-zone governments
     should also focus on combating differing inflation rates and step in
     early when capital bubbles develop.

     France, no doubt, would gladly accept such a proposal. Paris, after all,
     has long called for Europe-wide financial governance. Until now it was
     Germany that opposed the idea.

     The euro-zone governments have started to rethink their positions, but
     will action necessarily follow? The past never lacked in good intentions
     either, but political calculation always won out in the end. How else
     would Greece have managed to become a member of the common currency
     zone? Why else would Brussels stand by for so long without taking
     action? It was far from secret that Greece had been cooking its books
     for years.

     Financial Trickery

     Back in the fall of 2004, Eurostat, the EU body in charge of statistics,
     calculated that Greece's officially announced debts of between 1.4
     percent and 2.0 percent of gross domestic product between 2000 and 2003
     were incorrect. In reality, the amount was nearly three times as high,
     falling between 3.7 percent and 4.6 percent. The statisticians surmised
     that Athens had whitewashed its finances in previous years, too. Greece,
     in fact, would never have met the conditions for membership in the
     common currency without such trickery.

     But the country was not immediately banned from the euro zone, nor were
     other sanctions imposed. Instead, member countries discussed how the
     statistics could be improved and made more accurate. Not much emerged
     from all the talk.

     Outgoing European Commissioner for Enterprise and Industry Gu:nter
     Verheugen remembers all too well that, for a long time, the problem with
     Greece was simply not something that was talked about. He finds it hard
     to believe that this \"disproportionate regard\" for Greece had nothing to
     do with that fact that conservative allies of European Commission
     President Jose Manuel Barroso governed in Athens for five years.

     Not until last fall's elections brought Greece's socialist opposition to
     power did new data arrive from Athens -- and new questions and
     accusations from Brussels.

     The Greek parliament and government are now virtually stripped of power.
     They're not allowed to decide on any new expenditures without EU
     approval. Finance Minister Giorgos Papakonstantinou is required to
     report every four weeks on progress made in budget restructuring.

     An EU Protectorate

     Brussels, not Athens, now controls whether and how the austerity program
     takes effect. If \"detailed and ongoing inspection\" shows that the actual
     results fall short of those predicted, Almunia says, then Brussels'
     watchdogs will demand additional measures. There were even calls at the
     European Parliament last week to send a special EU representative with
     extensive authority to Greece. The small country has become little more
     than an EU protectorate.

     The EU Commission and the euro-zone leaders hope these compulsory
     measures will steady markets. They also hope Greek unions and
     associations, from farmers to taxi drivers, won't mobilize against the
     reduction in the country's standard of living that will accompany these
     new measures.

     German Finance Minister Scha:uble and German Federal Bank President Axel
     Weber rule out giving aid to the struggling country. Indeed, EU treaties
     strictly forbid any such aid. The message is that Greece must help
     itself.

     As a precautionary measure, though, both German officials, along with
     their colleagues in other EU countries, are keeping open the possibility
     of lending a hand anyway. The EU can't afford for a member state to go
     bankrupt, either politically or economically.

     Out of the Question

     The experts always debate the same possibilities. The first would be a
     common euro-zone bond, which would be placed at Greece's disposal. The
     advantages for Greece are obvious -- the country would receive funds
     more cheaply than it currently does because the euro zone as a whole
     wouldn't have to pay as high a risk premium as Greece alone does. The
     disadvantage is that countries with good credit, like Germany, would
     have to pay higher interest rates. Consequently, the German government
     insists that such a loan is out of the question.

     An alternative would be bilateral financial aid. Solvent countries, such
     as Germany, would take out loans on the financial market at good rates
     and pass these on to Greece. But euro-zone governments are also
     reluctant to take this path.

     The last option is the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which could
     use its resources to help Greece out of its credit crunch. It would
     likely impose much stricter conditions on its aid money than the EU
     would. But the IMF's involvement would also mean a loss of face for the
     entire euro zone and a triumph for the Washington-based institution,
     which was always skeptical of the euro.

     If Greece doesn't stabilize in the coming weeks, the euro-zone's leaders
     will be left facing a choice between a rock and a hard place, with the
     third option being even worse.

     Translated from the German by Ella Ornstein

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

 --
 
 Marko Papic

 STRATFOR
 Geopol Analyst - Eurasia
 700 Lavaca Street, Suite 900
 Austin, TX 78701 - U.S.A
 TEL: + 1-512-744-4094
 FAX: + 1-512-744-4334
 marko.papic@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2010-02-10 15:21:12",1,"2001-03-13 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1769589_re-eurasia-fwd-spiegel-an-eu-protectorate-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","eurasia@stratfor.com",""
1775739,"Re: [OS] FINLAND - Finland May Double Atomic Power to Cut Russia
 Imports
","   The Finns import 100 percent of the natural gas from Russia. They are also
   relatively flat, so while they do have a lot of water and rivers they
   usually don't run in a way that would be conducive to large hydropower
   dams. This means that they only get 18 percent of power from hydro.

   This is also one of the best examples of how say an anti-nuclear power NGO
   would serve Russian interests. Were Finland to build 3 more nuclear
   reactors, it would no longer be dependent on Russia for electricity.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Laura Jack\" <laura.jack@stratfor.com>
   To: \"The OS List\" <os@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, April 15, 2010 5:59:11 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: [OS] FINLAND - Finland May Double Atomic Power to Cut Russia
   Imports

   http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601095&sid=ajnVybZbdA0M

   Finland May Double Atomic Power to Cut Russia Imports (Update1)
   Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A

   By Kati Pohjanpalo and Diana ben-Aaron

   April 15 (Bloomberg) -- Finland, the European Uniona**s biggest power
   consumer per capita, may double nuclear energy production in the next 10
   years to wean the Nordic nation off Russian electricity imports that
   reached a record high in 2009.

   Fortum Oyj, Finlanda**s largest utility, Teollisuuden Voima Oyj, and a
   group led by E.ON AG want permission to build three reactors in addition
   to the current four. The government plans to make a decision this month.

   a**Ita**s first and foremost to be able to replace Russian electricity
   imports,a** Finance Minister Jyrki Katainen said in an interview. a**We
   should not be dependent on them and there is no sense in paying Russia for
   electricity we could produce ourselves.a** He is chairman of the National
   Coalition Party, the smaller government coalition member, which supports
   granting permits to all applicants provided they meet all criteria.

   Finlanda**s reliance on imports, which come mainly from Russia and supply
   15 percent of all power, make the country vulnerable because of its
   energy-intensive industries such as papermaking and winters where
   temperatures in the north can remain below freezing for six months,
   supporters of the building program say. Opponents say nuclear energy is
   too dangerous and Finland should seek other options.

   a**Ita**s worrying that three-quarters of Finlanda**s imported energy
   comes from Russia, including 100 percent of natural gas,a** said Ilkka
   Kananen, head of the National Emergency Supply Agency. a**Electricity
   imports are a structural vulnerability and a risk to supply security.a**

   Russia cut gas deliveries to Ukraine three times in five years in a
   pricing dispute, the last row in January 2009, which lasted three weeks,
   causing disrupted supplies and widespread shortages in eastern and Western
   Europe.

   Minus 50

   Electricity consumption in Finland is the highest in the EU and more than
   double Germanya**s per capita use, in part because temperatures in winter
   can drop to as low as minus 50 degrees Centigrade (minus 58 degrees
   Fahrenheit). The nationa**s main option for increased energy independence
   lies with nuclear power because it lacks the oil and gas supplies of
   Russia and Norway.

   a**We have to reach our security of supply goal even in peak load
   situations,a** said Juha Naukkarinen, head of Finnish Energy Industries,
   which represents power producers. a**All applicants should get the permit
   and let them evaluate when to build.a**

   In 2009, Finlanda**s nuclear reactors generated one-third of the
   nationa**s 68.7 terawatt hours of electricity output, while hydropower
   accounted for 18 percent, Statistics Finland data show. Finland consumed a
   total of 80.8 million terawatt hours, with the difference made up by
   imports.

   At Least One

   Russian electricity cost Finland 365 million euros ($497 million) last
   year and accounted for three-quarters of all imported electricity, the
   statistics office said.

   Finance Minister Katainen is at odds with Prime Minister Matti
   Vanhanena**s Centre party, which is pushing for a mixture of new nuclear
   power and renewable energy. Economy Minister Mauri Pekkarinen, a Centre
   Party member, has said the government is unlikely to issue three new
   permits.

   a**We can easily see from the debate what the outcome will be,a** said
   Tapio Litmanen, a sociology professor at the University of Jyvaeskylae in
   central Finland who has edited a book on the nuclear power industry. a**At
   least one new license will be given.a**

   Finland, which has four working reactors, was second behind the U.K. among
   western nations to start building additional nuclear plants following the
   Chernobyl meltdown in Ukraine in 1986.

   a**Unnecessarya**

   Teollisuuden Voima, or TVO, one of the three applicants, is building the
   countrya**s fifth reactor, the worlda**s largest, on the west coast with
   Areva SA. The original target cost was 3 billion euros, though Areva has
   set aside 2.3 billion euros for cost overruns, the company said on March
   4.

   Environmental groups also point to construction delays at the TVO
   Olkiluoto-3 reactor, set to open three years late in 2012, as an example
   of the complexities and hazards associated with nuclear energy.

   Nuclear power is a**unnecessary for Finland at this time,a** said Janne
   Bjoerklund, the Finnish Association for Nature Conservationa**s nuclear
   campaign coordinator. a**Even one new atomic reactor will make Finland a
   nuclear power exporter.a**

   After Finnish electricity consumption fell 7.4 percent last year, the
   biggest drop since World War II as the recession trimmed output and the
   forest industry shuttered capacity, critics say thata**s evidence new
   reactors are not needed and the industrya**s consumption forecast is too
   high.

   TVO and Fortum, which are partly government owned, have selected sites and
   waste repository locations for their new plants. Fennovoima, 34 percent
   owned by E.ON, has narrowed possible locations down to two in northern
   Finland.

   Capacity

   E.ON, which runs power plants in Germany, the U.K. and Sweden, posted net
   income of 5.33 billion euros last year, adjusted to exclude changes in the
   value of fuel hedging. Shares of the Dusseldorf, Germany-based company
   have declined 2.5 percent so far this year. E.ON gained 0.5 percent to
   28.54 euros as of 11:13 a.m. in Frankfurt.

   Finlanda**s four reactors have a capacity of about 2,700 megawatts.
   Olkiluoto-3 will produce 1,600 megawatts. The proposed three new reactors
   would add from 3,500 megawatts to 6,100 megawatts. The government predicts
   electricity usage of about 100 terawatt hours in 2030, while the Finnish
   energy industry forecasts it will grow faster.

   New power sources are also needed to replace plants that come to the end
   of their lifespan and are taken offline. Fortuma**s two Loviisa reactors
   will be shuttered in 2027 and 2030. Of Finlanda**s current power plants,
   only Olkiluoto-3 and some hydropower plants will be generating electricity
   in 2050, Finnish Energy Industriesa** data shows.

   To contact the reporters on this story: Kati Pohjanpalo in Helsinki at
   kpohjanpalo@bloomberg.net; Diana ben-Aaron in Helsinki at
   dbenaaron1@bloomberg.net.
   Last Updated: April 15, 2010 05:26 EDT

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-08-01 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1775739_re-os-finland-finland-may-double-atomic-power-to-cut-russia.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1781076,"INSIGHT - AUSTRALIA - Elections - CN65
","   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator.  Who is heading the
   campaign for the Liberal-National coalition seat in Queensland
   PUBLICATION: Yes but with no attribution
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   With the candidates seemingly neck and neck, what are your predictions? 
   Coalition should win Hasluck (WA), Solomon (NT), Leichhardt (Qld), Flynn
   (Qld), Wright (Qld), Brisbane (Qld), Dawson (Qld), Page (NSW), Lindsay
   (NSW), and possibly win another two or three seats in NSW plus Longman
   (Qld) and Forde (Qld).
   Coalition could lose Macmillan (Vic), McEwen (Vic), Boothby (SA), and
   Sturt (SA).

     Has Labour managed to regain some of its lost support, or does it
     continue to decline? 

   The Labor party has clawed back some vote in the south.  The unions are
   outspending the Coalition massively on electronic advertising, when ends
   at midnight tonight.  There is always a swing back tot he government in
   the last two weeks, no matter who the government is.

     Reports say that the Liberal-National coalition is willing to open up
     uranium exports to India: is this a change that only the coaltion would
     make, or would Labour also consider such a decision if it remains in
     power? 

   The Coalition signed a uranium export agreement with India when in
   government, but Labor reneged on it. Most of the differences are on
   domestic politics, but there are big differences on boat people which have
   implications on foreign politics in the South Pacific. 

     In addition to the mining tax debate and the asylum seekers, what are
     the other most divisive issues that could develop into concrete changes
     in Australia's behavior depending on the winner? 

   Mining tax, boat people, overall deficit, infrastructure.

     Will the victory of either side affect Australia's role in US-led NATO
     operations in Afghanistan?

   Labor under pressure over combat deaths in Afghanistan.  They say they
   will maintain the presence, but the Dutch pull out from Oruzgan has made
   it more difficult.  There is some prospect of a drawn own under Labor.
    The big question is how long the US will stay there.  

   My complete election predictions are:
   The Coalition should win Hasluck (WA), Solomon (NT), Leichhardt (Qld),
   Flynn (Qld), Wright (Qld), Brisbane (Qld), Dawson (Qld), Page (NSW),
   Lindsay (NSW), and possibly win another two or three seats in NSW plus
   Longman (Qld) and Forde (Qld).
   The Coalition could lose Macmillan (Vic), McEwen (Vic), Boothby (SA), and
   Sturt (SA).
   Thus although a Coalition win would be based on the result in Queensland,
   the election will actually be decided in SA and Victoria, where Labor
   gains would offset Coalition wins in Qld WA and NT and help Labor hold
   government.
   The other thing is that there may be no outright winners.  There are two
   independent members of the House or Representatives, and a really close
   result could see one side or the other having to form a government with
   the actual participation, or else support, of these independents, and any
   other independents who may win seats on Saturday.  No Australian PM has
   been dependent upon the support of independents since Arthur Fadden in
   1940.

   Source then sent this from the coalition daily update:

   From Day One the Coalition will take Real Action to restore Australiaa**s
   finances.
     * We will pay back Labora**s debt. Our Debt Reduction Taskforce will
       manage the process of delivering savings, and proceeds from the sale
       of Medibank Private will go towards paying off the debt.
     * We will end the waste by suspending payments under Labora**s BER
       programme, establishing an Office of Due Diligence and establishing a
       Waste Action website to enable Australians to report waste and suggest
       savings.
     * We will stop Labora**s higher taxes by removing the threat of the
       mining tax and the carbon tax, cutting company tax and providing a
       pathway to further tax relief once debt is under control.
     * We will boost productivity and participation through policies
       including a real Paid Parental Leave scheme, support for small
       business and a boost to infrastructure investment.
     * We will make sustainability the cornerstone of economic decisionmaking
       by reconstituting the Productivity Commission as the Productivity and
       Sustainability Commission. We will deliver our direct action plan on
       the Environment and Climate Change and our water policy.
   We need to reject the incompetence and spin of Julia Gillard and the Labor
   factions.
   We need Real Action.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com




   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer/Beijing Correspondent, STRATFOR
   China Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-08-18 04:05:33",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1781076_insight-australia-elections-cn65-.html","chris.farnham@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1782561,"Re: FOR EDIT - GUATEMALA MASSACRE TACTICAL ANALYSIS - 110519
","   if she becomes the real president, you have a de-facto narco-state, just
   more official

   ill gather more on this for an SI piece on her potential presidency

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Karen Hooper\" <karen.hooper@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 9:30:32 AM
   Subject: Re: FOR EDIT - GUATEMALA MASSACRE TACTICAL ANALYSIS - 110519

   I'd love to see what evidence we have on her that leads us to believe
   she's so much more corrupt than the rest of the elite, or than her
   husband. All I've heard so far is \"rumors\" and \"more than rumors.\"

   And since she's also rumored to be the current real president, what
   changes if she becomes the real president?

   I'm not at all convinced that any leader of Guatemala would be able to
   resist pressure from the narcos when there is money to be made and their
   own skins to save.

   On 5/19/11 10:24 AM, scott stewart wrote:

     Ia**d love to see SI do a high level political piece on Sandra Torres
     and the implications of her potential election.

      

      

      

      

     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Karen Hooper
     Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 9:34 AM
     To: Analyst List
     Subject: Re: FOR EDIT - GUATEMALA MASSACRE TACTICAL ANALYSIS - 110519

      

     Threats and mass killings are a different breed, and I think something
     should be said in the analysis that indicates this is a bit of a game
     changer. But I agree entirely that it needs to be in context of previous
     actions. They have indeed been threatening the administration since it
     came in.

     What counts as more than a rumor?

     On 5/19/11 9:28 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     this isn't the first instance of overt MX cartel presence in Central
     America.  Look at the Zeta threats to Colom just a few months ago.
     saying that this development transforms the geopolitics of Guatemala and
     Central America is a huge overstatement

     The allegations against Sandra are more than just rumors from what I've
     been able to pick up since I first heard about it around 2 yrs ago.
     She's made a lot of enemies, she's also made a lot of money. Wouldn't
     discount the allegations.. it's just something to keep in mind.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Karen Hooper\" <karen.hooper@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 8:22:14 AM
     Subject: Re: FOR EDIT - GUATEMALA MASSACRE TACTICAL ANALYSIS - 110519

     While we may want to caveate or tone it down, I do not think it's
     unreasonable to indicate that the influx of overt Mexican cartel
     presence in Central America is a game changer. These countries don't
     have the resources to fight the cartels, and the impact of this kind of
     violent message shouldn't be understated.

     Btw, I'd like to know more about why we think Sandra Colom is
     particularly corrupt. I know there have been rumors, but let's not
     forget that a) the elite in Guatemala is invested in discrediting
     outsiders like her, and b) they're all dirty. What do we actually have
     on her?

     Karen Hooper

     Latin America Analyst
     o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103
     c: 512.750.7234
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com

     On 5/19/11 8:59 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     also 'grisly', 'horrific', etc.

     the elite landowners don't 'represent' the state.... in fact, Sandra has
     a real problem on her hands with the landed elite the more she tries to
     go down the populist/indigenous vote grabbing route.  The landed elite
     are a powerful part of the state, but represent is not the right word

     i also don't see the basis for this claim \"We expect this to be the
     beginning of a trend which will have dramatic effect upon the
     geopolitics of the country and the greater Central American region. \"

     what is this supposed dramatic effect on the geopolitics of Guatemala
     and CA?  The Zetas have been there for a long time, likely with the
     cooperation of Sandra Torres and her allies. The Zetas also use messages
     like this to intimidate all the time. This analysis treats the event as
     if something radically new is happening.  The mass killing is notable
     for sure, but I really do not see this at all having a fundamental
     impact on Central American geopolitics

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Sean Noonan\" <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Cc: \"Writers@Stratfor. Com\" <writers@stratfor.com>, \"scott stewart\"
     <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2011 7:55:48 AM
     Subject: Re: FOR EDIT - GUATEMALA MASSACRE TACTICAL ANALYSIS - 110519

     Please take these loaded words out of the analysis as I suggested
     yesterday:
     massacre (it's a mass murder)
     sadistic (this is now a 'personality disorder' and we are not shrinks. 
     Please describe in dry, tactical terms)
     slaughter (we simply don't use words like this)

     On 5/18/11 6:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

      

     On the night of 14/15 May, 27-29 Guatemalan laborers were slaughtered on
     the farm of a regional landowner near the village of San Benito, Peten
     Department, Guatemalaa**s northernmost province. The mass killing
     appears to be the work of Mexicoa**s Los Zetas cartel, due to the
     combination of the cartela**s known presence in the region, its control
     of Chiapas and Campeche states [LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20101218-mexican-drug-wars-bloodiest-year-date]
     bordering Peten on the north and west, and the grisly display of
     beheaded and dismembered victims. Somewhat out of character, though, was
     that they wrote the narco-message on a wall of a building with blood a**
     using a victima**s leg as the writing implement a** which is not common
     for Los Zetas. However it has become clear over the last two years that
     Los Zetas tend to kill victims in particularly sadistic ways when time
     allows and a message needs to be sent a** the result being a fearsome
     reputation. That this event occurred and involved Los Zetas, is not what
     makes the massacre significant. When taken together, several unusual
     aspects of this event present the probability that a significant shift
     is in progress in the dynamics of Zeta activities in northern Guatemala.

      

     Peten Department is remote, underdeveloped, and the people are strongly
     independent and distrustful of the Guatemalan government (this will be
     rewritten/reworked by Colby to convey more accurately in a single
     sentence the significance of the culture of the region vis-A -vis
     outsiders, govt, kaibiles, etca*|). It is known that Los Zetas over the
     years have recruited many Guatemalan kaibiles [LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110209-mexican-cartels-and-guatemalan-politics],
     current or former Guatemalan special forces soldiers, to the point that
     there is a high likelihood that Zetas operating in Guatemala, the
     Yucatan, and southern Mexico are from Guatemala. Based upon reported
     testimony of two of the survivors of the massacre the attackers wore
     military-style fatigues (not uncommon), and that they had Mexican
     accents. The presence of a large group of Mexican Zeta enforcers leads
     to the possibility that this group was sent into Peten Department for a
     specific purpose. In the context of a long presence of Guatemalan Zetas
     in the region, we ask why this change in operations came about.

      

     Further, the surviving witnesses indicated that the gunmen were
     demanding to know the whereabouts of the landowner, Otto Salguero, and
     as the peasants had just arrived to work for Salguero the previous week
     they would not have possessed any useful knowledge to extract a** as
     opposed to that which long-time employees likely would possess. While
     interrogating the peasants regarding the whereabouts of Salguero a** who
     was not on the property at the time a** the peasants were killed, then
     methodically decapitated. But there are large anomalies evident in the
     event.

      

     According to reports from Latin American media, the Zeta force was
     camped in a what was described as a redoubt nearby for several days a**
     most likely in surveillance of Salgueroa**s residence and activities,
     judging by the proximity of their camp to the targeta**s house a** and
     as such probably knew that their apparent target was not on the property
     when they attacked. Additionally it was reported that, at the time the
     attack began, Salguero was attending the funeral of his niece and her
     father-in-law a** who had been killed the previous day by Zetas when the
     pair were delivering ransom money for another family member. The Zetas
     killed and beheaded the people they were interrogating, presumably
     because the peasants could offer no information, but the Zetas likely
     knew where their target was a** and why. The conflicting information
     then points to the potential that Los Zetas slaughtered the peasants
     knowing they were not relevant to whatever activities Salguero was
     engaged in that made him a Zeta target in the first place. There are
     indications in the media that Salgueroa**s activities have been counter
     to Zeta interests for several years, however as there is little clarity
     yet in this aspect of the chain of events, STRATFOR is in the process of
     corroborating rumored connections before giving them credence in
     analysis on this situation.

      

     Regarding the contradiction of reported information and historical
     evidence, another element in play is the leaving of witnesses: Los Zetas
     typically does not do so unless the group wishes to deliver a pointed
     message, though there have been occasions when a victim has a**played
     deada** until the Zetas depart, as occurred at the massacre of the
     Central American migrants in San Fernando last year [LINK:
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100826_revelations_72_migrants_deaths].
     As reported in Guatemalan news on the event, while one survivor did so
     by a**playing deada** after he was wounded, a woman was specifically and
     pointedly spared. She apparently was told by the Zeta leader that she
     would be spared because of her daughters, who were with her and
     reportedly whom she had attempted to protect by covering them with her
     body. As it happens the woman is pregnant as well, but that may not have
     played into the decision to allow her to live. What is not known at this
     point about the Zetas sparing her and her children, is what message she
     may have been specifically instructed to convey after the event came to
     light.

      

     There remains a great deal of uncertain or uncorroborated information
     surrounding the massacre in Peten. STRATFOR is monitoring the
     developments closely, for there are many questions to be answered. It is
     clear though, from the known facts and the identified anomalies, that a
     profound message was being sent. Based upon the available information
     STRATFORa**s initial take is that the message was the violence, that
     because Mexicans were used rather than Guatemalans, Los Zetas are there,
     no one is safe a** from the average peasant to the elite landowners (who
     represent the state). The more gruesome the scene created by Los Zetas,
     the more it will remind the Guatemalan people of the horrific acts of
     the death squads during that countrya**s 36 year civil war a** and the
     death squads were kaibiles, who now are aligned with Los Zetas. The
     connection will have been made. The primal fear this event instilled in
     Guatemalans has been evidenced by STRATFORa**s sources in that country
     flatly refusing to discuss or even acknowledge it as having happened. We
     expect this to be the beginning of a trend which will have dramatic
     effect upon the geopolitics of the country and the greater Central
     American region. The second part of this discussion, next week, will
     examine those wider implications which we perceive to have been
     triggered by the massacre at San Benito.

      

      

      

      

     Victoria Allen

     Tactical Analyst (Mexico)

     Strategic Forecasting

     512-279-9475

     victoria.allen@stratfor.com

      

     \"There is nothing more necessary than good intelligence to frustrate a
     designing enemy, & nothing requires greater pains to obtain.\" -- George
     Washington

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
","2011-05-19 16:39:07",1,"2012-03-01 20:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1782561_re-for-edit-guatemala-massacre-tactical-analysis-110519-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1784664,"Josh Informacije O Kini
","   Dragi Srdjo i Slobodane,

   Ovo je \"highly confidential\", shto bi rekli Ameri:

   Nash analista za Kinu ima josh informacije za vas. Saznali smo od
   informanata u Kineskoj informativnoj sluzbi da je njihov interes za Canvas
   na veoma visokom nivou, prakticno to im je prioritet broj jedan.
   Najverovatnije ce poceti cyber-war napade na vash web-sajt, ali za razliku
   od amaterskih Iranskih napada mozete da ocekujete da koriste vash web-sajt
   kao portal za napad na celu organizaciju (dakle da ostave web sajt aktivan
   ali da ga hack-uju za informaciju o clanovima, email-ove, itd.), kao
   naprimer njihov napad na Save Darfur website
   (http://computerworld.co.nz/news.nsf/scrt/F7D5B25446152C91CC25741600722278).

   Takodje je najverovatnije da ce Kineska vlada pokushati da napravi presing
   na Srpsku vladu da urade neshto po pitanju \"Canvas-a\"... Shta i kako
   naravno ne znamo. Dakle u zakljucku oni vas shvataju veoma ozbiljno, ali
   takodje prave analizu da vi ustvari niste NGO nego deo \"Zapadnih\"
   informativnih sluzbi...

   Kina je odlucila da od Tibeta napravi \"primer\" i da od njih naprave
   \"battleground region\". Mi ovde u Stratforu analiziramo da je to zbg toga
   shto u sledecih par godina dolazi kriza u Kineskim ruralnim regionima.
   Trenutno Kina koristi sigurnost oko Olimpiskih igara kao izgovor da
   uspostavi sigurnosne mere koje bi ostale na snazi sve dok postaji opasnost
   nemira u unutrashnjosti. Dakle mozemo da ocekujemo povecanje operacija u
   Tibetu ali i u Xianxingu, pogotovu kad se Olimpiske igre zavrshe.

   Nas ovde u Stratforu zanjima kakve akcije Kina preduzme protiv vas, pa ako
   vam to nije problem molimo vas da nas ostavite obaveshtene o bilo kakvim
   napadima na vash web-sajt ili pressing o strane vlade, ili neshto sasvim
   trece.

   Ja licno znam da vi vec sve ovo ocekujete... Nadam se da je nasha
   informacija vama donekle korisna.

   Sve najbolje and \"keep safe\".

   Marko
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-06-18 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1784664_josh-informacije-o-kini-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","slobodan@mediaworksit.net,srkip@mediaworksit.net",""
1787633,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA/EUROPE - nat gas money & influence
","   ***LG: we've been looking at the energy sector's income into the Russian
   government. There is a lot we can get #s for... but apparently there is
   some hidden income we didn't know about....
   Also, Stratfor watched Gazprom buy up a SLEW of middle-men natural gas
   companies in Europe and didn't think it mattered since they were
   middle-men and didn't own real infrastructure. Well, apparently they do
   matter since they not only jack up the prices domestically, but also
   create a lot of revenue for the Russian state...
    
    
   CODE: RU105
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Gazprom
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Gazprom spokesman
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: C
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   HANDLER: Lauren
    
    
   Russian energy is a commodity that is hard to say has suffered during the
   2008-2010 recession. Yes, I agree that natural gas is the main commodity.
   It makes up the bread and butter of the Russian economy. It also makes up
   the bulk of the energy revenue coming in. It can't fluctuate with global
   prices since Europe is on contract prices negotiated years in advance. So
   the recession doesn't matter when it comes to natural gas.
    
   But it does not really contribute to the cushion funds. That is oil, which
   is vulnerable to global prices. But it is still income coming in.
    
   What you need to understand how far Russia has moved into the European
   market outside of basic export-import contracts. Russia's Gazprom now owns
   the majority of Eastern, Central and even a few Western European natural
   gas middle-men. This allows them to collect revenue on Russian natural gas
   going into the countries... a lot of revenue. For example, say Russia
   sells Hungary, Slovakia or Bulgaria natural gas at $350 or $450 per
   thousand cubic meters. The middle-men country (which are never reported
   on) then sell it to industry, the government or domestic consumers at
   $450-$600 per thousand cubic meters. This money goes straight to the
   Russian government and Gazprom. This money isn't accounted for in most #s
   but is part of a large source of income that no one knows about.
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
","2010-08-13 19:44:01",1,"2012-03-02 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1787633_insight-russia-europe-nat-gas-money-and-influence-.html","michael.wilson@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1788211,"INSIGHT: Ocalan and the PKK relations
","   PUBLICATION: background
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Ocaln's aide in Syria and now with close ties with the
   PKK
   SOURCE A Reliability : A BA 
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Yerevan
   Last night, I had an hour talks with this guy. A He was very interesting,
   but liked to talk more about PKKA philosophy and ideology.
   A Regarding the current clout of Ocalan over the PKK, he says,A 
   There are a number of A PKK leaders in fact. It has no only one leader,
   because PKK is a system of life in the terms of politics,
   economy.A environment, administration and for the future. And, Ocalan
   leads that system via his ideology and thinking. its true that Ocalan is
   imprisoned,A A but his ideology and the system is notA imprisoned. Ocaln
   is still alive and the current leaders of the PKK dont marginalized him
   and all his guidances and recommendations are considered. A PKK certainly
   take Ocalan into account and follow his recommendations. the current
   leaders of the PKK do know who Ocalan is. Also, Ocalan say that now PKK
   has anA administration and system that can decide on war and peace as
   well. A 
   He says that Ocalan does support what decisions come out of Qandil and
   dont object it. A Ocalan and the current leaders such as Karalyan. Bozan,
   Jamil Bayak , Avesta and others are completing each other.A 
   He says that Turkey is a part of administrating Emrali prison. Israel, US,
   EU and Russia are theA harbingers and Turkey is the tail in fact when it
   comes to deal with Ocalan.A 
   He said that the current ceasefire came at the result of NGO's. former
   BTP, Barzani and Ocalan himslef. A but mostA importantlyA , Ocalan's
   message from Emral.A 
   He said that PKK decided to resume fighting in June to tell Turkey that we
   are still there and send a message to the world and Turkey that Turkey
   still has an internal issue, becauseA TurkeyA showed itself as the
   regional leader and has not any internal problems, and expanded its
   diplomacy through Balkans, Middle east and all the way to South America.
   Turkey was thinking that its now time to save Gaza. By A firing one
   bullet, PKK cut the expanding hand of Turkish diplomacy that wanted to
   emerge as a regional leaders. A  He says that PKK was able to minimize
   TurkishA foreignA agenda in the region and almost abort its regional
   project which was an Islamic one. A He says that one can see that since
   PKK resumption of fighting, Turkish foreign policy is not as active as it
   used to be and now, Turkey is more focused on the domestic affairs.A 
   Regarding Government talks with the PKK, he said, there has been indirect
   talks in the past, but about two weeks ago, aA committee, consisted on a
   number of peopleA went to Emrali and talked with Ocalan about the current
   cease fire.A 
   He believed that fighting to resume after the deadline of the current
   ceasefire if Turkey doesnt take concrete steps regarding the conditions of
   the PKK.A 
   Regarding BDP/ PKK relations, he says that the current leaders of the BDP
   are a part of the PKK system and they follow PKKA guidance, but PKK never
   commands them. And the leaders of BDP understand that if they dont be in
   line with the PKK guidance, then they are rejected by the people there. He
   believed that BDP and PKK are completing each other to develop the Kurdish
   cause and push the government to address the Kurdish issue.A A 

   --
   Yerevan Saeed
   STRATFOR
   Phone: 009647701574587
   IRAQ

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
","2010-08-23 18:49:18",1,"2012-03-15 20:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1788211_insight-ocalan-and-the-pkk-relations-.html","michael.wilson@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1793631,"Questions for Vinny
","   Hey Lauren,

   Have fun with Mr. Markovski... I just found out on the net that he was
   actually born in Skoplje, Macedonia... Here are some points/questions I
   think would be interesting for you to ask him:

   General Questions about the economy:
   - What is his overall assessment of the financial crisis and its potential
   impact in the Balkans. Is he worried about what is going on?
   - If he is cool with answering this question: who does he bank with and
   why? What is his sense about the Bulgarian banks.
   - How would he characterize the Bulgarian economy? From the looks of it
   (low public debt and a budget surplus) it seems to be doing real well. It
   has a huge trade deficit, but that's normal for all the Balkan states.
   - Which countries in the Balkans is he most interested in investing in?

   IT-related Questions:
   - I would re-read our stratfor analyses about cybersecurity and ask him
   about that kind of stuff. What can a small company like Stratfor do to
   protect itself from cyber-attacks (he'll probably say, \"you can buy my
   services\" ;), etc.
   - Ask him if he had seen Russians using cyber-attacks.
   - How prevalent are hackers from the Balkans still... I know Serbs were
   not bad at it when they want to be.

   Stratfor Business Related:
   - How can we become more visible in the Bulgarian market? (We are thinking
   of going big time into internationalization)

   --
   Marko Papic

   Stratfor Junior Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
   AIM: mpapicstratfor
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1793631_questions-for-vinny-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com",""
1794293,"Re: FOR COMMENT: Canadian Pipeline Attack
","   Yeah, I know that, you know that... does our reader know that? They may
   not remember what you are talking about...

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Ben West\" <ben.west@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, October 21, 2008 11:00:40 AM GMT -05:00 Columbia
   Subject: Re: FOR COMMENT: Canadian Pipeline Attack

   Attacks took place last week - the fact that police talked to Ludwig is a
   fresh trigger and is relevant to the attacks since he pulled off similar
   stuff about 10 years ago.

   Marko Papic wrote:

     ----- Original Message -----
     From: \"Ben West\" <ben.west@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Tuesday, October 21, 2008 10:02:46 AM GMT -05:00 Columbia
     Subject: FOR COMMENT: Canadian Pipeline Attack

     In connection with the two pipeline attacks last week, Canadian police
     talked to Weibo Ludwig yesterday, an activist is he First Nations?
     responsible for a series of attacks in the late 1990s.  awkward way to
     start... let's get a trigger going here... what happened... what
     pipeline, what attack?  Talking to him indicates that police probably
     don't have many clues to go on and so are turning to past suspects.  It
     also reminds us that pipeline bombings in Canada are not a completely
     new thing.  However, these latest bombs, however amateurish, appear to
     be tied into a wider indigenous movement that has connections to budding
     anti-Olympics protests.  Regardless of who was behind these attacks or
     what the intentions were, they point out inherent security weaknesses in
     Canada's pipeline system.

      

     No arrests have yet been made connected to the two attacks on separate
     pipelines in northeast British Columbia last week.  While neither attack
     caused significant physical damage, the second attack did puncture a
     hole in the pipe, causing Encana (the pipelinea**s owner and operator)
     to shut down the pipeline temporarily while workers repaired the leak. 
     These leaks were preceded by a letter written to a local newspaper
     demanding that Encana and other energy companies leave the area of
     Tomslake, where the attacks took place.  The letter went on to state
     that the author would no longer negotiate and accused the oil & gas
     companies of causing health problems in the writera**s community.  The
     letter also specifically mentions that oil and gas production endangers
     their a**home landsa**, a term that is closely linked to the indigenous
     -- referred to as First Nations in Canada -- rights movement in Canada. 

      

     Certainly not enough details are known about the attacks and police are
     still carrying out investigations.  So far there is no evidence that
     suggests that more than one person could be involved in the attacks, so
     we could have a lone wolf bomber on our hands.  However, a local tribe,
     known as the Kelly Lake Cree, are already involved in a dispute with
     Encana over gas production in the area and their recent escalations
     indicate that at least a faction of their group could be involved in the
     attacks.     

      

     In February of 2008, a Kelly Lake Cree spokesman indicated that plans to
     build more pipelines in the area did not include adequate compensation
     to the tribe.  While the Kelly Lake Cree does not outright own the land
     they claim, they have been involved in a legal battle over obtaining a
     title from the Canadian government since the mid-1990s.  On June 30, the
     same band set up a roadblock in the area in an effort to protest land
     rights, a tactic commonly used by other indigenous tribes in Canada. 
     This action was preceded by an emergency evacuation drill which was
     aimed at a nearby gas treatment plant as criticism for the
     unpreparedness.    

      

     Both of these actions a** the evacuation drill and the indication that
     verbal negotiations were not leading to results a** match with the
     complaints made in the letter sent October 10.  While it is certainly
     too early to assume that the Kelly Lake Cree are behind these two
     attacks, they certainly would be a suspect of interest for the RCMP. 

      

     The Kelly Lake Cree is certainly not the only group that has protested
     over health concerns surrounding oil and gas production in the region. 
     Among many more contemporary citizens who complain of water
     contamination and poor air quality, Weibo Ludwig was responsible for
     carrying out a campaign targeting the oil and gas industry during the
     late 1990s in nearby Hyeth, Alberta.  Citing health concerns and neglect
     by local officials, Ludwig bombed a drilling platform among many other
     oil & gas targets.  Ludwig was ultimately apprehended and jailed, but
     has since been released.  In an interview after being questioned by the
     police, he expressed sympathy for those behind the most recent attacks. 
     Meanwhile, other indigenous groups in Saskatchewan, Alberta and Ontario
     have histories of resorting to violence in disputes with authorities and
     some are currently involved in disagreements with local oil & gas
     projects. 

      

     According to Canadian census estimates, 1.7 million Canadians
     (approximately 5% of the population) claimed First Nation heritage in
     2006; 60% of them lived on reservations.  Obviously, an overwhelming
     majority of these people are peaceful citizens and are tightly
     integrated into the communities around them.  But the ability to wage
     violence can rest with as few as a handful of members, or even a single
     member, that have or has been radicalized.-- Careful here... I would
     caveat this even more... Canadians really get touchy about this sort of
     thing.

      

     There is another movement taking shape in Canada right now that would
     further contribute to any First Nation protest surrounding the use of
     indigenous lands and the oil & gas industry.  Canadaa**s western city of
     Vancouver is set to host the winter Olympics in 2010 and groups have
     already amalgamated around the themes of Canadaa**s human rights abuses
     surrounding indigenous rights and the countrya**s booming energy
     industry.  Protests, like those that formed at stops along the Olympic
     Spirit Train that is making stops all across Canada in an effort to drum
     up support for the games, have remained small, but their grievances
     track closely with those of First Nation groups like the Kelly Lake Cree
     in British Columbia, First Nation groups in Saskatchewan protesting
     pipeline construction and the Lubicon Cree in Alberta that have joined
     up with Amnesty International.

      

     If enough supporters from Canadaa**s ecological, indigenous rights and
     anti-capitalist movements joined up with sympathetic elements within
     Canadaa**s First Nation population, there is reason to believe that they
     could pose a challenge to Canadaa**s Olympic organizers.  Protests like
     those surrounding the Olympic torch during the preparation for the
     Beijing Olympics last summer could plausibly take place in the run up to
     Vancouvera**s Olympic Games; the torch relay for which begins a year
     from now.     You should mention here that the protests leading up to
     the winning of the 2010 bid (I think the decision was made in 2004) were
     very active, if not violent. Look up some info on that... and that was
     just about the bid/

      

     Regardless of what may come to pass surrounding the 2010 olympics in
     Vancouver, these most recent attacks show an escalation in hostility
     towards oil & gas projects in Canada.  This poses a challenge to energy
     companies like Encana, who are unable to completely secure the 27,000
     miles of pipelines in British Columbia alone.  The perceived adverse
     health affects of a pipe rupture would also negatively affect those
     companiesa** image a** regardless of who was ultimately behind the
     attacks.

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890

     _______________________________________________ Analysts mailing list
     LIST ADDRESS: analysts@stratfor.com LIST INFO:
     https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts LIST ARCHIVE:
     https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts

     --
     Marko Papic

     Stratfor Junior Analyst
     C: + 1-512-905-3091
     marko.papic@stratfor.com
     AIM: mpapicstratfor

       ------------------------------------------------------------------

 _______________________________________________
 Analysts mailing list

 LIST ADDRESS:
 analysts@stratfor.com
 LIST INFO:
 https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
 LIST ARCHIVE:
 https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890

   _______________________________________________ Analysts mailing list LIST
   ADDRESS: analysts@stratfor.com LIST INFO:
   https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts LIST ARCHIVE:
   https://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts

   --
   Marko Papic

   Stratfor Junior Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
   AIM: mpapicstratfor
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-06-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1794293_re-for-comment-canadian-pipeline-attack-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1797953,"Re: Oligarch Sitdown Opportunity...
","   I've got nothing better to do on Oct 10-12 than to sit down with a shady
   Bulgarian billionaire whose handle is \"Vinny\". Maybe he can speak
   Bulgarian to me, which we in Serbia call \"Eastern Serbian\".
   ..
   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Lauren Goodrich\" <goodrich@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Peter Zeihan\" <zeihan@stratfor.com>, \"Marko Papic\"
   <marko.papic@stratfor.com>, \"Lauren Goodrich\" <goodrich@stratfor.com>,
   \"George Friedman\" <gfriedman@stratfor.com>, \"Matt Gertken\"
   <matt.gertken@stratfor.com>, \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Monday, September 15, 2008 1:37:41 PM GMT -05:00 Columbia
   Subject: Oligarch Sitdown Opportunity...

   Just to fill everyone ina*|
    
   I have been contacted by Veni Markovsky, who is Bulgariaa**s billionaire
   telecommunications oligarch. He brought internet to like 9 eastern
   European countries. He is also very good pals with Michael Dell, who
   introduced him to us.
    
   Anyway, he is very interested in us and what we publish. He said that
   during the war, we were the only ones to a**get ita** & a**not be taken
   off guarda**.
    
   He is interested in talking about Russia (and other EE & CIS countries) in
   business, finance and economy. He is currently organizing a summit for
   Putin, Medvedev & Russian and European companies to discuss the financial
   & business situation. He also does a lot of business in Russia and places
   like Ukraine, Turkmenistan, etc.

   He is willing to talk to us about how he sees things shaping up there now
   (post-war) and wants to dispel a lot of what is in the media (ie, that
   foreigners are just going to run away from Russian investment).Anywaya*|
   he has asked for a big sitdown with me to go through econ, finance,
   politics of Eurasia post-war & has opened it up if any of ya**all would
   like to come. It would be sometime @ Oct 10-12, when he visits Texasa*|
   hea**s still working out the details.
    
   Ya**all interested?
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   Stratfor Junior Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
   AIM: mpapicstratfor
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1797953_re-oligarch-sitdown-opportunity-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,burton@stratfor.com,zeihan@stratfor.com,goodrich@stratfor.com,matt.gertken@stratfor.com",""
1800240,"Re: INSIGHT - AUSTRALIA - Independents split - CN65
","   Chris and I were just discussing this. the plan is a national funded and
   controlled fiber optic broadband network. The security issue has not
   received nearly as much debate or discussion as the political debates
   about cost and competitiveness, even though it was frequently referred to
   during the China-Google debates. The criticism by some activists has been
   that Oz will have complete control over information. The complaint by
   national security types has been that a foreign sponsored hacker (such as
   China) would access a gold mine by breaking into this network, and that it
   should be coupled with a more comprehensive cyber-security plan.

   we need more info about it but here is the Oz House of Reps' latest report
   on cyber crime which was oft-cited in questions relating to this:
   http://www.aph.gov.au/house/committee/coms/cybercrime/report.htm

   essentially the security risk argument is that a centrally administered
   broadband network would be more vulnerable to foreign attack.

   Of course will defer to Jen's source on this and would very much like to
   hear more details/specifics (or links to places to find them) about the
   security risks.

   Peter Zeihan wrote:

     how is the NBN a security risk?

     On 9/7/2010 9:44 AM, Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

       National Broadband Network
","2010-09-07 18:19:55",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1800240_re-insight-australia-independents-split-cn65-.html","matt.gertken@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1808255,"Re: Former Spanish PM Azner
","   At least 20 camps? Pretty impressive. That's more than I've seen in OS,
   where so far all they've been focusing on is the Guasdalito camp where
   Cubillas was allegedly at, but it's quite possible all those former
   etarras are spread out all over the place. I would he's a lot more open
   about heaping criticisms on Chavez since I heard him speak at Trinity back
   in 2004, where he referred to him as \"an interesting man.\" My brother has
   a picture of himself with Aznar at that event. Every time I look at it I
   really do think, it's always his hair that I notice.....

   -----------------
   Reginald Thompson

   Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741

   OSINT
   Stratfor

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 16, 2010 5:26:21 PM
   Subject: Former Spanish PM Azner

   Wow, SeA+-or presidente is hardcore.. Way more extreme than even the  
   Israeli officials I've heard speak. He honestly believes that all  
   terrorists are the same and that nothing short of total war can defeat  
   them. He is adamantly against any kind of negotiation with terrorists  
   and criticizes France, Germany and others heavily in this regard. He  
   attributes French and German \"weakness\" on counterterrorism to their  
   larger Muslim populations. He said OBL's statement on retaking Andaluz  
   is all he heard and the Germans and French just didn't get it. He says  
   poverty has zero connection to terrorism and that developmental aid  
   policies are useless. On ETA, he said the ceasefires are just time  
   buying measures, nothing more. In Catalonia he says the regional govt  
   encourages Muslim immigration from Pakistan, Algeria, etc because they  
   can more easily linguistically integrate them as opposed to Spanish-
   speaking immigrants. This is also where the most radical imams are in  
   the country. He also said ETA has at least 20 camps in Venezuela and  
   ggat farc and eta work with each other in training l, weapons, etc.

   Overall, he's very ideological and hardline. Good reminder of the  
   personal role in poltics (though he also paid for that and is  
   embarassed by his loss)

   Also, great hair.

   Sent from my iPhone
","2010-11-17 00:35:40",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1808255_re-former-spanish-pm-azner-.html","reginald.thompson@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1810862,"Re: Insight - Obama, Israel, Mike Steele (internal use only)
","   i don't really... he lost to Bush Sr... what happened?

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Secure List\" <secure@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Saturday, February 14, 2009 3:06:00 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: Insight - Obama, Israel, Mike Steele (internal use only)

   Remember what happened to Haig? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Saturday, February 14, 2009 2:55 PM
   To: Fred Burton
   Cc: Secure List
   Subject: Re: Insight - Obama, Israel, Mike Steele (internal use only)
   Right... but he never got to be the President... See Obama had all the
   hippies thinking he was a peacenik... instead he is a baaaad mother...
   \"shut your mouth\"!

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Secure List\" <secure@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Saturday, February 14, 2009 2:52:41 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: RE: Insight - Obama, Israel, Mike Steele (internal use only)

   The last one to do this was Al Haig. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Saturday, February 14, 2009 2:51 PM
   To: Fred Burton
   Cc: Secure List
   Subject: Re: Insight - Obama, Israel, Mike Steele (internal use only)
   I dont know about the rest of you, but the president who says \"Fuck you,
   I'm the President, sign it.\" is my kind of guy...

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Secure List\" <secure@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Saturday, February 14, 2009 2:48:40 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: Insight - Obama, Israel, Mike Steele (internal use only)  

   From a US Congressman friend (internal use only)  --
    
   1) There were two Democratic Senators concerned about the size of the
   stimulus bill and received calls from Obama.  He said to them, and I
   qoute, \"Fuck you, I'm the President, sign it.\"  The Congressmen were
   shocked.  Source advised this should be leaked very soon. 
    
   2) Rahm Emmanuel called BiBi and told BiBi that the Obama Administration
   wants a coalition govt, which includes Kadema.  Needless to say, this has
   not been received very well.  BiBi should be PM in 2/3 days.   Source
   believes Emmanuel will be removed soon. 
    
   3) Mike Steele, the new Chairman of the RNC, is putting together his
   strategy but believes numerous Senate seats can be won.  Obama has caused
   the GOP to close ranks and come together.  Steele found it funny that in
   the midst of the economic chaos, Obama had a basketball court installed
   inside the White House.  Steele believes Obama and the stimulus plan is
   disastrous for our country and intends to push that theme going
   forward.   
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-07-28 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1810862_re-insight-obama-israel-mike-steele-internal-use-only-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
1812436,"BULGARIA - SRM UPDATE- 090106
","","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-28 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1812436_bulgaria-srm-update-090106-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com,srmupdate@stratfor.com","attach/128/128973_BULGARIA - Country Writeup - 090106.doc"
1813919,"Re: [Eurasia] Athens' Indignants threaten political system
","   You know this happened in Mexico after the last Presidential elections and
   Calderon just let them sit there for a year and a half.

   On 6/3/11 8:26 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

     Depends on their numbers. If they get a massive group of people (very
     unlikely of course) just sitting around somewhere then it'll matter to
     some extent and at some point. But other than that you're right as long
     as they don't start rioting a bit they'll just be ignored under some
     kind of a number threshold.

     Look at Spain though, let's assume they get a few (in the high) hundreds
     for the nights and then thousands during the day. They'll force some
     kind of a reaction (especially because the Greek police cannot empty
     that square for political reasons). No idea what kind of number
     potential we're talking about with these guys though.

     On 06/03/2011 02:14 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

       Ok, so... If they refuse to vote for anyone and dont have the balls to
       riot, how do they matter? 
       It is a legit question. I am asking. 

       On Jun 3, 2011, at 8:08 AM, Benjamin Preisler
       <ben.preisler@stratfor.com> wrote:

 To Ethnos - Greece. For more than a week now the \"indignant
 citizens\" movement has been demonstrating in Athens against the
 government's drastic austerity measures. The protests are a
 symptom of a major crisis of the political system in which the
 great majority of citizens have lost faith in the parties,
 writes the left-liberal daily To Ethnos: \"Already the parties
 are discussing whether this phenomenon represents a threat to
 the political system, while others believe it is just an
 insignificant expression of anger - without political weight or
 serious repercussions. ... The people who have gathered at
 Athens' main square reject the entire structure of the system:
 the parties, trade unions, media and institutions. They are
 making the point that they won't vote for the [socialist ruling
 party] Pasok, or the [liberal-conservative opposition party] Nea
 Dimokratia, nor for the communist KKE party or the radical left
 coalition Syriza. This is why the parties are not taking a
 positive view of the demonstrators.\" (02/06/2011) +++
 http://www.ethnos.gr/article.asp?catid=22792&subid=2&pubid=63111062


 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic
","2011-06-03 15:50:23",1,"2011-03-05 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1813919_re-eurasia-athens-indignants-threaten-political-system-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com","eurasia@stratfor.com,ben.preisler@stratfor.com",""
1814492,"SRM UPDATE - BULGARIA - 081013
","","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-28 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1814492_srm-update-bulgaria-081013-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","srmupdate@stratfor.com","attach/129/129036_BULGARIA - Country Writeup - 081013.doc"
1814928,"Re: Former Spanish PM Azner
","   Yes, awesome hair.

   Also, I don't think he is ideological or necessarily hardline. I would
   argue that about half of all Spaniards definitely agree with him. The
   problem with Spain is that half of the country is worried about external
   threats coming over from North Africa and the other half thinks that the
   biggest threat is Madrid.

   On 11/16/10 4:26 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     Wow, Senor presidente is hardcore.. Way more extreme than even the
     Israeli officials I've heard speak. He honestly believes that all
     terrorists are the same and that nothing short of total war can defeat
     them. He is adamantly against any kind of negotiation with terrorists
     and criticizes France, Germany and others heavily in this regard. He
     attributes French and German \"weakness\" on counterterrorism to their
     larger Muslim populations. He said OBL's statement on retaking Andaluz
     is all he heard and the Germans and French just didn't get it. He says
     poverty has zero connection to terrorism and that developmental aid
     policies are useless. On ETA, he said the ceasefires are just time
     buying measures, nothing more. In Catalonia he says the regional govt
     encourages Muslim immigration from Pakistan, Algeria, etc because they
     can more easily linguistically integrate them as opposed to
     Spanish-speaking immigrants. This is also where the most radical imams
     are in the country. He also said ETA has at least 20 camps in Venezuela
     and ggat farc and eta work with each other in training l, weapons, etc.

     Overall, he's very ideological and hardline. Good reminder of the
     personal role in poltics (though he also paid for that and is embarassed
     by his loss)

     Also, great hair.

     Sent from my iPhone

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-11-17 00:31:32",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1814928_re-former-spanish-pm-azner-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com,reva.bhalla@stratfor.com",""
1815209,"Re: Former Spanish PM Azner
","   Haha, I'm glad you noticed those gorgeous locks as well
   Aznar could have been exaggerating the ETA in VZ stuff, but who knows

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Nov 16, 2010, at 6:35 PM, Reginald Thompson
   <reginald.thompson@stratfor.com> wrote:

     At least 20 camps? Pretty impressive. That's more than I've seen in OS,
     where so far all they've been focusing on is the Guasdalito camp where
     Cubillas was allegedly at, but it's quite possible all those former
     etarras are spread out all over the place. I would he's a lot more open
     about heaping criticisms on Chavez since I heard him speak at Trinity
     back in 2004, where he referred to him as \"an interesting man.\" My
     brother has a picture of himself with Aznar at that event. Every time I
     look at it I really do think, it's always his hair that I notice.....

     -----------------
     Reginald Thompson

     Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741

     OSINT
     Stratfor

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Tuesday, November 16, 2010 5:26:21 PM
     Subject: Former Spanish PM Azner

     Wow, SeA+-or presidente is hardcore.. Way more extreme than even the  
     Israeli officials I've heard speak. He honestly believes that all  
     terrorists are the same and that nothing short of total war can defeat  
     them. He is adamantly against any kind of negotiation with terrorists  
     and criticizes France, Germany and others heavily in this regard. He  
     attributes French and German \"weakness\" on counterterrorism to their  
     larger Muslim populations. He said OBL's statement on retaking Andaluz  
     is all he heard and the Germans and French just didn't get it. He says  
     poverty has zero connection to terrorism and that developmental aid  
     policies are useless. On ETA, he said the ceasefires are just time  
     buying measures, nothing more. In Catalonia he says the regional govt  
     encourages Muslim immigration from Pakistan, Algeria, etc because they  
     can more easily linguistically integrate them as opposed to Spanish-
     speaking immigrants. This is also where the most radical imams are in  
     the country. He also said ETA has at least 20 camps in Venezuela and  
     ggat farc and eta work with each other in training l, weapons, etc.

     Overall, he's very ideological and hardline. Good reminder of the  
     personal role in poltics (though he also paid for that and is  
     embarassed by his loss)

     Also, great hair.

     Sent from my iPhone
","2010-11-17 00:44:52",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1815209_re-former-spanish-pm-azner-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1816463,"Re: INSIGHT - (for Peter) Surkov
","   Wow... kick ass.

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: \"Lauren Goodrich\" <goodrich@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Peter Zeihan\" <zeihan@stratfor.com>, \"Lauren Goodrich\"
   <goodrich@stratfor.com>, \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>, \"Reva
   Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 11, 2008 12:32:45 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
   Subject: INSIGHT - (for Peter) Surkov

   from godfather:

   Vladislav Yurievich knows that he can not lead Russia. That is not what he
   is trying to do. When all of his reforms are complete, he sees the head of
   United Russia as the second highest if not the equally as high as the
   president. The way he explained his plan to myself and a few others last
   week was that Stalin held two titles: Leader of the Soviet Union and
   General Secretary of the Communist Party. Both titles were the most
   powerful positions in the USSR. If Vladislav Yuievich can not hold one
   (which he can not), then he will hold the other. If he is a**testing the
   watersa** as you call it, then he has not spoken to me about it.

   my reply: But I thought Surkov wanted to stay out of the spotlight.

   from godfather:

   Yes and no. He is still ambitious. He is still controlling. He still feels
   that he knows best on how to run this country. Too many people trying to
   guide this country at the moment. Taking the actual reins is a way to
   ensure that he is taking the lead. That is why Stalin held all these
   offices and did not parse the positions out or trust others in those
   positions.

   my reply: It always comes back to the Stalin complex with you people!
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   Stratfor Junior Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
   AIM: mpapicstratfor
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1816463_re-insight-for-peter-surkov-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","zeihan@stratfor.com,goodrich@stratfor.com,reva.bhalla@stratfor.com",""
1824461,"Re: anybody have questions for former Spanish PM Aznar
","   he is impeccably dressed. the most beautiful hair... so silky and shiny! i
   might ask him what shampoo he uses
   On Nov 16, 2010, at 3:41 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     Como se dice \"Movember\" en espanol?

     <moz-screenshot-68.png>

     On 11/16/10 3:33 PM, Sean Noonan wrote:

       Uh, how about a party for stratfor in his (or one of his friends')
       mediterranean villa?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Michael Wilson <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
       Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Tue, 16 Nov 2010 15:32:32 -0600
       To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
       ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
       Subject: Re: anybody have questions for former Spanish PM Aznar
       can i crash on his couch?

       On 11/16/10 3:26 PM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

         can you just tell him \"good call on blaming ETA\" for me?

         On 11/16/10 3:18 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

           he's teaching our class today

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com
","2010-11-16 22:44:36",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1824461_re-anybody-have-questions-for-former-spanish-pm-aznar-.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1826523,"INSIGHT - TURKEY/ TAK, PKK relations
","   Tried different sources, bu the main one who is the CNN corespondent in
   Istanbul told me he is in Athens now, watching/filming police clearing a
   bomb there. So asked me to shoot him an email.
   CODE: 
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Iraq
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Kurdish chief editor, well connected to KRG and the
   PKK
   PUBLICATION: Background/Analysis
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: C
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Yerevan
   The source says its hard to say that there is connection between PKK and
   TAK, because TAK has been not just defiant of Turkey, but the PKK and
   have worked. working to undermine talks between PKK (Ocalan) and Turkish
   government.  The source says, for sure, the elements of TAK are not in
   Qandil, but they left in the mid 0f 2004 when they had difference views
   with the main stream PKK about the form of struggle.  
   He also said that PKK leaders are not happy with what TAK are doing,
   especially when they dont make distinction between civilian and military
   and PKK leaders do believe that targeting civilians will not develop the
   Kurdish case in Turkey, but further alienate the outside sympathizers and
   give more pretext to military to assert itself. The source even suspects
   some kind of connection between military and TAK people, but said that
   this is a theory, but given what TAK is doing in this critical
   stage, parallels with what military and the deep state forces want. 
   The source says, TAK are within the Turkish cities and mostly in Istanbul
   and Western Turkey, even they dont have that much presene in South East
   where the Kurds are. 
   The source also said that so far not much is known about the nature of
   the organization, programs, but noted that they consider Ocalan as the
   real leader of theirs.
","2010-11-04 14:51:27",1,"2012-03-15 20:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1826523_insight-turkey-tak-pkk-relations-.html","colibasanu@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
1850591,"SYRIA/ISRAEL/PNA/UN - Syria Renews Demand for Ending Israeli
 Systematic Violations in Occupied Golan
","   Syria Renews Demand for Ending Israeli Systematic Violations in Occupied   
   Golan                                                                      
                                                                              
   Sep 28, 2010                                                               
                                                                              
                                                                              
   http://www.sana.sy/eng/22/2010/09/28/310091.htm                            
   Geneva, (SANA)- Syria on Monday renewed its demand for stopping the        
   Israeli continued violations of human rights against the Palestinians,     
   lifting unjust siege on Gaza Strip and granting the Palestinian people     
   their right to self-determination and establishment of its independent     
   state with Jerusalem as its capital.                                       
                                                                              
   This demand came during Syria's Permanent Representative to the UN Office  
   in Geneva Faisal al-Hamwi's speech, on behalf of the Arab Group, during    
   the discussions of the Human Rights Council on the Israeli violations of   
   human rights in the occupied Palestinian territories and in the occupied   
   Syrian Golan.                                                              
                                                                              
   The Council was briefed on Judge Goldstone report which condemned Israel's 
   rejection of cooperation with his committee.                               
                                                                              
   Al-Hamwi called for condemning Israel for its rejection to cooperate with  
   Goldstone's committee, noting that Israeli indifference and rejection of   
   the Committee's investigations aim at escaping punishment.                 
                                                                              
   He stressed the necessity that the council should not allow the rights of  
   the victims of Gaza massacre to be wasted as were the rights of the        
   victims of Bait Hanoun and other Israeli-perpetrated massacres.            
                                                                              
   The Council sited the human rights violations in the occupied Palestinian  
   territories and in the occupied Syrian Golan. Al-Hamwi enumerated the      
   Israeli violations of human rights in the occupied Palestinian territories 
   and occupied Syrian Golan which included all sides of life.                
                                                                              
   During the Council's general discussions of Chapter VII on the situation   
   of human rights in the occupied Palestinian territories and in the other   
   occupied Arab lands, al-Hamwi said, in Syria's statement to the Council, \" 
   Day after day, the Israeli occupation continued its violations of the      
   human rights in the occupied Syrian Golan\", pointing out that with the     
   entry of the Syrian prisoners their 26th years in the Israeli jails,       
   Israel continues depriving the citizens of the occupied Syrian Golan of    
   clean water and exploit it to the Israeli settlers interest.               
                                                                              
   The statement called for an examination of the details of this attack and  
   of a number of other attacks against the Syrian citizens in the occupied   
   Golan in a message addressed by Syria's Foreign Minister to President of   
   Human Rights Council in August 31, 2010.                                   
                                                                              
   Al-Hamwi concluded his statement as saying that no matter how the Israeli  
   distortion campaign increased, we and all the countries which believe in   
   the true human rights without double standards, will follow-up the         
   occupation in this council to expose the truth and to release the          
   prisoners and allow our citizens to enjoy their right in visiting their    
   motherland without conditions in addition to the main demand of ending the 
   Israeli occupation of the occupied Syrian Golan.                           
                                                                              
   H. Zain/ Al-Ibrahim                                                        
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1850591_syria-israel-pna-un-syria-renews-demand-for-ending-israeli.html","basima.sadeq@stratfor.com","","os@stratfor.com",""
1891085,"Re: [CT] INSIGHT - Mexico - ICE Hit - US706
","   Here is a recap of insight from Fred's fed LE contacts that we drafted
   this morning. Fred suggests we take out some specifics if we write on it
   for the website though, like specific reference to Subway so we don't get
   his sources in trouble. 

   According to STRATFOR sources with knowledge of the investigation and
   details surrounding the attack, the working theory behind the attack
   against the two ICE agents was that they were the target of a \"hit\"
   sanctioned by the top ranks of the Los Zetas cartel. Originally it was
   thought that the men were targeted because they were driving in (according
   to sources) a high-profile, fully-armored navy blue Suburban SUV, a valued
   commodity amongst cartel members. 

   While a carjacking may have been the original intent once the vehicle was
   first spotted, according to STRATFOR sources, the two agents stopped for
   lunch at a Subway fast-food restaurant along the route before the
   incident. While the distance between the restaurant and the roadblock
   where the shooting took place is not yet known, it is possible that
   stopping while in route from Mexico City to Monterrey may have led to them
   to be identified as U.S. law enforcement and provided time for Zetas
   associates to put an operation in place to target the two agents at the
   roadblock (we believe a rolling roadblock) along Hwy 57.  This is
   especially possible since according to sources, the vehicle they were
   driving had diplomatic mission license plates. As the agents stopped (or
   were forced/boxed in) at the roadblock (which they thought was that of the
   military), it would be difficult for the gunmen not to have noticed the
   specialized plates indicating the vehicle as that of U.S. federal law
   enforcement.   There is a specific two-letter code issued on license
   plates to federal agents inside Mexico.

   As the ICE agent who survived begins to provide more details, the tactical
   operation and motive of the attack will become clearer. Still, we are left
   with the question of why the gunmen did not kill both men, not leaving any
   witnesses if they did know the two men were U.S. agents. However, this
   insight from well-placed U.S. federal security sources indicates that the
   agents may have been targeted because of their status as U.S. federal
   agents, a possibility which we are continuing to explore.
   On 2/17/11 2:56 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     I'm open to it.

      

     What it the evidence that points us in that direction?

      

      

      

     From: ct-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:ct-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf
     Of Sean Noonan
     Sent: Thursday, February 17, 2011 2:33 PM
     To: CT AOR
     Subject: Re: [CT] INSIGHT - Mexico - ICE Hit - US706

      

     readers and sources seem pretty critical of our point that it was a
     carjacking.  I wouldn't know, but should we reevaluate?

     On 2/17/11 11:30 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

 Its not the federal working theory however.

  

 Scott Stewart wrote:

 That is one of the points I made yesterday..

  

 ------------------------------------------------------------------------

 *From: *\"Michael Wilson\" <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>

 *To: *\"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>

 *Sent: *Thursday, February 17, 2011 11:19:26 AM

 *Subject: *INSIGHT - Mexico - ICE Hit - US706

  

  

  

 Source Code: US706

 ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR security source

 SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Investigative journalist close to Mexican DTOs

 SOURCE  RELIABILITY:  B

 ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2

 SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:  analysts

 SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

  

  

 Reports from FOX are claiming that the ICE agents were the intended

 targets..... I find it hard to believe that the attack was

 premeditated---the Zetas don't often leave living witnesses...

  

  

  

      

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com
","2011-02-17 23:17:21",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1891085_re-ct-insight-mexico-ice-hit-us706-.html","zucha@stratfor.com","mailto:ct@stratfor.com","scott.stewart@stratfor.com,ct@stratfor.com",""
1914583,"Re: [TACTICAL] FBI investigation against Gulen
","   Will find out.

   Stick may be Gulen in drag.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Emre Dogru <emre.dogru@stratfor.com>
   Date: Tue, 29 Mar 2011 08:23:45 -0500 (CDT)
   To: 'Fred Burton'<fred.burton@stratfor.com>
   Subject: FBI investigation against Gulen
   Hey Fred, there are reports that FBI is investigating 120 schools of Gulen
   movement in the US. Gulen is a moderate religious community in Turkey,
   whose leader Fethullah Gulen lives in Pennsylvania, and the movement has
   become recently pretty controversial due to some arrests of journalists
   who were writing books about Gulenist infiltration into police service.
   The report is below. Do you think we can learn the story behind this?
   Thanks.

   http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=american-media-has-discovered-gulen-charity-schools-2011-03-21

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-03-29 15:25:44",1,"2012-03-07 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1914583_re-tactical-fbi-investigation-against-gulen-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:tactical@stratfor.com","emre.dogru@stratfor.com,tactical@stratfor.com",""
1918074,"Dispatch: Mainland China's \"Occupy Wall Street\" Reaction
","    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Dispatch: Mainland China's \"Occupy Wall Street\" Reaction                   
                                                                              
    October 19, 2011 | 2044 GMT                                               
    Click on image below to watch video:                                      
    [IMG]                                                                     
                                                                              
    China Director Jennifer Richmond explains why the \"Occupy Wall Street\"    
    movement failed to gain traction in mainland China.                       
                                                                              
       Editor*s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition      
       technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete        
       accuracy.                                                              
                                                                              
    Related Links                                                             
      * China Political Memo: Wenzhou Backs Away from the `Wenzhou Model'     
      * The Effects of Chinese Economic Development on Illicit Trade          
      * China Political Memo: Governmental Reforms for Economic Problems?     
                                                                              
    The \"Occupy Wall Street\" movement has gone global and there have even     
    been attempts to capitalize on this movement in various Chinese cities.   
    The \"Occupy China\" movement, however, has failed to gain traction on the  
    mainland.                                                                 
                                                                              
    We really didn't expect to see this movement transfer to mainland China;  
    however, given the Jasmine protests earlier this year, there were many    
    who were waiting to see whether or not this movement could be             
    rejuvenated by the global call to action. The global Occupy movement      
    lacks a nucleus or leadership. Despite a common theme of corporate        
    greed, there is very little direction on how to proceed and, under these  
    circumstances, we have seen no contagion effect in mainland China.        
                                                                              
    However, the Tiananmen protests in 1989 also started with very little     
    leadership or direction, and many Chinese activists that I've spoken      
    with feel that all that is needed is a spark to ignite a fire. After      
    all, there are plenty of protests localized daily in China, revolving     
    around issues such as land grabs, the environment and even corruption.    
                                                                              
    The Jasmine Movement provided a spark for organized action in China;      
    however, it quickly fizzled under an aggressive government response. The  
    Occupy China movement hasn't even gotten that far. While it is not        
    unforeseeable for a small movement to gain momentum in China, the         
    problem with both the Jasmine and the Occupy movements are that neither   
    were home-grown.                                                          
                                                                              
    Although the Jasmine movement was spearheaded by Chinese, it was done so  
    from overseas. The Occupy movement had supporters and organizers within   
    China, but the concept was foreign-generated.                             
                                                                              
    Moreover, the Chinese government and media has actually acknowledged the  
    Occupy movement in the U.S. and in the EU, taking the opportunity to      
    point out the failures of Wall Street and capitalism, while at the same   
    time, censoring any indication of an Occupy China movement. Also, many    
    Chinese do not have access to the social Internet sites that have helped  
    to ignite these movements in Western countries, namely Facebook. And      
    those that do, find this information quickly scrubbed off of similar      
    Chinese sites.                                                            
                                                                              
    Ultimately, the Chinese, even those that want change, are wary of         
    foreign influences. Anything emanating from outside of the state will be  
    used by the state to highlight foreign interference. That said the        
    domestic wealth gap and its ensuing tensions could generate a homegrown   
    movement that would threaten Beijing much more so than any Occupy Wall    
    Street movement could muster.                                             
                                                                              
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    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
","2011-10-19 23:03:31",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1918074_dispatch-mainland-china-s-occupy-wall-street-reaction-.html","noreply@stratfor.com","","ryan.abbey@stratfor.com",""
1947984,"[CT] Did Mossad kill German politician involved in Iran-Contra
	scandal?
","       Did Mossad kill German politician involved in Iran-Contra scandal?

   Posted on November 22, 2010 by intelNews| Leave a comment
   Uwe           Barschel

   Uwe Barschel

   By JOSEPH FITSANAKIS  | intelNews.org |
   Accusations of Israeli involvement in the suspicious death of a German
   politician have been revived, following new autopsy evidence revealed by a
   medical examiner. The case involves the death of Christian Democratic
   Union politician Uwe Barschel, who on October 11, 1987, was found dead in
   the bathtub of room 317 of the Beau-Rivage hotel in Geneva, Switzerland.
   His sudden death occurred less than a month after he was forced to resign
   from the post of Governor of West Germany's Schleswig-Holstein state,
   following his involvement in a dirty-tricks campaign against his rival
   Bjo:rn Engholm, of Germany's Social Democratic Party. Swiss authorities,
   based on an initial postmortem that revealed lethal levels of barbiturates
   in Barschel's system, ruled the death a suicide. But now Dr Hans
   Brandenberger, who was one of the toxicological experts that examined
   Barschel, claims that he is possession of new evidence that points to
   murder as the cause of the German politician's death. Speaking on Sunday
   to Germany's quality Welt am Sonntag broadsheet, Dr Brandenberger said
   that computer analysis of the original 1987 autopsy data makes it \"next to
   certain that Barschel was injected with [the strong sedative] Noludar
   shortly before his death through the rectum\". The toxicologist claims that
   the strong tranquilizer was part of a complex cocktail of drugs that was
   force-fed to the German politician after he was sedated, probably with the
   help of a spiked drink. Dr Brandenberger's allegations have breathed new
   life to claims that Barschel was in fact murdered by Israeli intelligence
   agency Mossad, who targeted him because of his inside knowledge of
   Iran-Contra scandal dealings. Specifically, Barschel is said to have known
   about an alleged transfer of Israeli military aircraft to the Islamic
   Republic of Iran, facilitated under United States oversight through German
   mediators. Following his resignation from his governor post, he had
   threatened to publicize insider accounts of the alleged transfer. During
   the Iran-Contra Scandal (1985-1986), Israel acted as Washington's conduit
   in supplying US-made weapons to Iran and then channeling the profits to
   the Contras paramilitary mercenaries fighting Nicaragua's Sandinista
   government. Incidentally, Israel did so in full knowledge of the fact that
   the Iranian government was at that time the primary military supplier of
   Palestinian militant group Hamas.

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com
","2010-11-22 18:01:23",1,"2012-08-05 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1947984_-ct-did-mossad-kill-german-politician-involved-in-iran.html","sean.noonan@stratfor.com","mailto:ct@stratfor.com","ct@stratfor.com","attach/125/125556_first-post5.jpg"
1948022,"Re: [CT] Did Mossad kill German politician involved in Iran-Contra
 scandal?
","Victim looks gay. Any other details on his death?

Sean Noonan wrote:
>
>
>   Did Mossad kill German politician involved in Iran-Contra scandal?
>
> Posted on November 22, 2010
> <http://intelligencenews.wordpress.com/2010/11/22/01-600/> by
> intelNews
> <http://intelligencenews.wordpress.com/author/intelligencenews/>|
> Leave a comment
> <http://intelligencenews.wordpress.com/2010/11/22/01-600/#respond>
> Uwe Barschel
>
> Uwe Barschel
>
> By *JOSEPH FITSANAKIS* | intelNews.org |
> Accusations of Israeli involvement in the suspicious death of a German
> politician have been revived, following new autopsy evidence revealed
> by a medical examiner. The case involves the death of Christian
> Democratic Union politician Uwe Barschel, who on October 11, 1987, was
> found dead in the bathtub of room 317 of the Beau-Rivage hotel in
> Geneva, Switzerland. His sudden death occurred less than a month after
> he was forced to resign from the post of Governor of West Germany’s
> Schleswig-Holstein state, following his involvement in a dirty-tricks
> campaign against his rival Björn Engholm, of Germany’s Social
> Democratic Party. Swiss authorities, based on an initial postmortem
> that revealed lethal levels of barbiturates in Barschel’s system,
> ruled the death a suicide. But now Dr Hans Brandenberger, who was one
> of the toxicological experts that examined Barschel, claims that he is
> possession of new evidence that points to murder as the cause of the
> German politician’s death. Speaking
> <http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article11113360/CDU-Politiker-will-neue-Ermittlungen-im-Fall-Barschel.html>
> on Sunday to Germany’s quality /Welt am Sonntag/ broadsheet, Dr
> Brandenberger said that computer analysis of the original 1987 autopsy
> data makes it “next to certain that Barschel was injected with [the
> strong sedative] Noludar shortly before his death through the rectum”.
> The toxicologist claims that the strong tranquilizer was part of a
> complex cocktail of drugs that was force-fed to the German politician
> after he was sedated, probably with the help of a spiked drink. Dr
> Brandenberger’s allegations have breathed new life to claims that
> Barschel was in fact murdered by Israeli intelligence agency Mossad,
> who targeted him because of his inside knowledge of Iran-Contra
> scandal dealings. Specifically, Barschel is said to have known about
> an alleged transfer of Israeli military aircraft to the Islamic
> Republic of Iran, facilitated under United States oversight through
> German mediators. Following his resignation from his governor post, he
> had threatened to publicize insider accounts of the alleged transfer.
> During the Iran-Contra Scandal (1985-1986), Israel acted as
> Washington’s conduit in supplying US-made weapons to Iran and then
> channeling the profits to the Contras paramilitary mercenaries
> fighting Nicaragua’s Sandinista government. Incidentally
> <http://intelligencenews.wordpress.com/about/latest-analysis/content/analysis009/>,
> Israel did so in full knowledge of the fact that the Iranian
> government was at that time the primary military supplier of
> Palestinian militant group Hamas.
>
> -- 
>
> Sean Noonan
>
> Tactical Analyst
>
> Office: +1 512-279-9479
>
> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
>
> Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>
> www.stratfor.com
>
","2010-11-22 18:25:24",1,"2012-08-05 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1948022_re-ct-did-mossad-kill-german-politician-involved-in-iran.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:ct@stratfor.com","ct@stratfor.com",""
1951845,"Re: [CT] Spiegel on Dubai assassinatino
","   *
   I've asked the TrapWire folks (ex-CIA) if they know Haroun or his
   company. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: ct-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:ct-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf
   Of Sean Noonan
   Sent: Monday, January 17, 2011 3:39 PM
   To: CT AOR
   Subject: Re: [CT] Spiegel on Dubai assassinatino
   Here's an old article about Haroun I don't remember seeing before:
   http://www.thenational.ae/news/for-those-who-mean-us-harm-there-is-no-place-left-to-hide

   Don't see much else. 

   They're all semites.  But how did Moses disguise himself amongst black
   Egyptians?
   On 1/17/11 3:29 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

     ** You may recall this was my initial theory.  The cameras were fed
     into a surveillance cp or mirrored to the Mossad contractor team. 
      
     *** What can we dig up on the Palestinian & his security company? 
      
     -Security Advice Services, headed by Mohammed Haroun, a Palestinian
     businessman with a German passport, installed the camera's at al Bustan
     rotana (where mabhouh was killed)
     I also think he is saying that Moses was an Arab. 
      
     \"The Jews resemble us much more closely, in terms of religion, language
     and many other respects, than the Europeans or the Americans,\" he says.
      

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Sean Noonan [mailto:sean.noonan@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Monday, January 17, 2011 1:57 PM
     To: burton@stratfor.com; CT AOR
     Subject: Re: [CT] Spiegel on Dubai assassinatino
     yeah the two parts I highlighted at the top.  also see what i bolded
     below.  Nothing major, but interesting background. 

     We may not know actual cause of death--now saying there isn't much
     evidence of strangling or Succinylcholine. 

     On 1/17/11 1:47 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

       Anything new?

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
       Sender: ct-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Mon, 17 Jan 2011 13:20:07 -0600
       To: CT AOR<ct@stratfor.com>; mesa<mesa@stratfor.com>
       ReplyTo: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>
       Subject: [CT] Spiegel on Dubai assassinatino
       Another very detailed article.  One of the writers is ronen Bergman,
       who wrote the GQ article. The main thing this adds is the details of
       the investigation from the Dubai end.   Also includes an interview
       with the Sheriff of Dubai, who actually sounds pretty smart in this
       piece.  This article calls him 'supercop of Dubai.'
       For example:
       \"Tamim would later explain that this was their most glaring mistake,
       because, as he says, no real tennis player walks around with his
       tennis racket out of its case.\"
       -this is true for anyone who has money and plays tennis. 

       -Security Advice Services, headed by Mohammed Haroun, a Palestinian
       businessman with a German passport, installed the camera's at al
       Bustan rotana (where mabhouh was killed)
       01/17/2011 05:54 PM
       An Eye for an Eye
       The Anatomy of Mossad's Dubai Operation
       http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,druck-739908,00.html

       In the spring of 1989, a Palestinian terrorist murdered an Israeli
       soldier. Twenty years later in Dubai, the Israeli secret service
       agency Mossad avenged the killing. The operation succeeded, but
       nevertheless has become a fiasco. SPIEGEL has reconstructed the
       attack. By SPIEGEL Staff

       He knew that he was a dead man. From the moment he shot the Israeli
       soldier sitting on the car seat behind him in the face, he knew that
       they would get him sooner or later.

       For Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, it would take 20 years for that day to come.
       At about noon on Jan. 20, 2010, employees at the Al Bustan Rotana
       airport hotel in Dubai opened the door of room 230 to find the body of
       a man on the bed. According to the death certificate, the cause of
       death was \"brain hemorrhage.\"

       At the time, no one knew who exactly the dead man was. Mabhouh was
       considered to be the chief weapons negotiator for Hamas, the
       Palestinian organization's main contact to Tehran and the logistician
       behind rocket attacks on Israel coming from the Gaza Strip.

       A man with a pedigree like that doesn't die of a brain hemorrhage. In
       fact, al-Mabhouh became a marked man long ago.

       MONDAY, JAN. 18, 2010

       More than 100,000 passengers arrive at Dubai International Airport
       every day. The emirate has become a popular vacation spot for those
       seeking a respite from winter in the northern hemisphere. The
       temperatures are summery, the hotels first-class and the shopping
       malls legendary. But the 27 passengers who arrived in the space of
       several hours on flights from various European cities had not come to
       Dubai to go shopping or for a winter break. Instead, they had a
       mission to fulfill.

       Twelve of them had British passports, six had Irish passports, four
       each had French and Australian passports, and one had a German
       passport, issued to a Michael Bodenheimer by a registration office in
       Cologne.

       Most of these 27 people were members of an elite unit of the Mossad,
       the Israeli intelligence agency, assigned to the riskiest missions,
       and to do work involving sabotage, espionage and assassinations. This
       elite unit is called \"Caesarea,\" named after the ancient city in
       Palestine where a few leaders of the second Jewish insurrection
       against Rome were martyred.

       The 27 people were waiting for another man, someone they knew was a
       dead man.

       A few members of the Caesarea team had already been in Dubai earlier,
       in February, March and June of 2009, to observe \"Plasma Screen,\" their
       code name for Mabhouh. They wanted to be sure that they were targeting
       the right man. During their previous visits, they also familiarized
       themselves with the door locks used in various hotels.

       Key Storylines

       In July 1973, a Mossad commando unit had murdered a Moroccan waiter in
       the Norwegian city of Lillehammer, acting on the erroneous assumption
       that he was a terrorist with the Palestinian Liberation Organization
       (PLO). Several agents were sent to prison, and Israel paid
       compensation to the man's surviving dependents. The agency's
       reputation suffered as a result of the incident, and Mossad leaders
       were determined not to allow anything like it to happen again.

       Perhaps the choice of the code name for Mabhouh was likewise a
       mistake. After all, images of the \"Plasma Screen\" operation were soon
       flickering across thousands of flat-screen TVs around the world. At
       first, many questions remained unanswered and many details unresolved.
       One year later, after investigations in the United Arab Emirates
       (UAE), Israel, the United States and Europe, and after interviews were
       conducted with several participants, police officers and intelligence
       agencies, SPIEGEL is now able to reconstruct the key storylines that
       intersected in Dubai between Jan. 18 and 20, 2010.

       One of these storylines is the German one. Michael Bodenheimer, who
       landed in Dubai at 12:14 a.m. on Jan. 19, had planned his arrival long
       before. The story of how he got his passport can be reconstructed with
       great precision. It's an important story, because it demonstrates that
       the Mossad was in fact behind what happened in the ensuing few hours.

       On Sunday, March 29, 2009, two men arrived in Cologne on a Lufthansa
       flight from Tel Aviv. The men sought to avoid all contact with each
       other. They sat in different rows and waited in different lines at
       passport control. The men, according to their papers, were Alexander
       Varin and Michael Bodenheimer.

       False Names, False Addresses

       Varin and Bodenheimer had an appointment with a Cologne attorney the
       next morning. Varin, who referred to himself as a \"crisis consultant,\"
       already knew the attorney, who had petitioned for German citizenship
       on behalf Michael's father, Hans Bodenheimer, allegedly a victim of
       the Nazi regime. Under the German constitution, those persecuted by
       the Nazis, as well as their children and grandchildren, can petition
       for repatriation.

       The Israelis told the German attorney that Bodenheimer was born on
       July 14, 1967, in the Israeli village of Liman on the Lebanese border.
       The information was apparently false. No one in Liman knows a man
       named Bodenheimer. He also told the attorney that his last address
       prior to his move to Germany was in the Israeli city of Herzliya, in a
       four-story building at Yad Harutzim Street 7. There is an upscale
       kitchen design store on the ground floor of the building.

       But the address also proved to be false. The name \"Michael
       Budenheimer\" appears among 19 names on a blue panel in the lobby. The
       name \"Top Office\" appears at the top of the panel.

       According to its website, Top Office provides \"virtual offices,\" among
       other services. \"Have your company name displayed on the entrance
       sign,\" the site promises. When a SPIEGEL representative called Top
       Office, the woman answering the phone said her name was Iris, but she
       was unwilling to provide a surname. When the name Bodenheimer was
       mentioned, she ended the conversation. Two days later, the names
       \"Michael Budenheimer\" and \"Top Office\" had been removed from the panel
       in the lobby of the office building in Herzliya.

       In Cologne, the German attorney filed the necessary documents in March
       2009. When Bodenheimer and Varin returned three months later and
       checked into a Cologne hotel, the next mistake was made: Alexander
       Varin checked in under a different name, \"Uri Brodsky.\" But he
       continued to use his old name, Alexander Varin, with the attorney.
       Confusing two different identities was an inexcusable mistake, and
       investigators with the German federal criminal police agency, the BKA,
       would quickly discover later that it was one and the same man using
       both names.

       On June 17, 2009, Bodenheimer, in an effort to bolster his German
       identity, rented a small apartment at Eigelstein 85, in a rundown
       neighborhood near the main train station in Cologne. He told the
       landlord that he was a coach for a triathlon team, and he paid his
       rent in cash.

       On June 18, 2009, Bodenheimer picked up his new German passport. He
       was now a citizen.

       Seven months later, on Jan. 19, 2010, Bodenheimer was standing at the
       airport in Dubai. He and his fellow team members had been told a week
       earlier that their victim would arrive in Dubai the next day. Although
       they didn't know which hotel the man would check into, they did know
       that he would not be checking out again.

       Everything was in place. All they had to do now was wait for their
       victim.

       Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2010, Early Morning
       Mabhouh was on his way to the international airport in Damascus. As a
       VIP, he had his driver take him to a back entrance of the terminal,
       and he was able to wait in the lounge while his luggage was being
       checked and his passport stamped. Mabhouh was traveling alone.

       The previous spring, he had given and interview to Al-Jazeera, the
       Arab-language news network, about the murder of two Israeli soldiers
       in 1989. The station had disguised Mabhouh's face, but the Mossad had
       no trouble identifying his voice.

       The Hamas agent described, in great detail, how he and an accomplice
       had dressed as Orthodox Jews and how, in the spring of 1989, they had
       kidnapped, killed and buried the two soldiers Avi Sasportas and Ilan
       Saadon. They had trampled on the bodies and photographed themselves in
       the process. When asked whether he regretted the killings, Mabhouh
       said that he only regretted not having shot the second Israeli in the
       face. But unfortunately, he added, he had been sitting at the wheel of
       the car.

       \"Red Page\" is the Mossad's code name for an order to kill someone.
       Each of these orders is jointly authorized by the Israeli prime
       minister and defense minister. \"Red Pages\" do not have to be executed
       right away. In fact, they have no expiration date, and the orders
       remain valid until they are expressly cancelled.

       As reported in a recent article on the Dubai attack in the US
       lifestyle magazine GQ, Mabhouh received his \"Red Page\" back in 1989.
       The Israelis don't take kindly to the kidnapping or murder of one of
       their soldiers in uniform.

       Mabhouh Planned Murders

       Mabhouh was born in the Jabaliya refugee camp in the Gaza Strip in
       1960. His name means \"the hoarse one.\" He joined the Muslim
       Brotherhood as a young man, and he was there when the Islamist mob
       began laying waste to the Palestinian coffeehouses that maintained
       gambling operations.

       In the late 1980s, the Israeli occupying forces caught him with a
       Kalashnikov in his luggage and he was sentenced to a year in prison.
       He said that he was tortured in prison.

       After his release, Mabhouh joined the military wing of the recently
       established Islamist movement Hamas. It was the period of the first
       Intifada, when most Palestinians were fighting the Israeli occupiers
       with slingshots and Molotov cocktails. Mabhouh planned murders.

       In 1988, he was placed in command of Hamas's \"Unit 101.\" The
       kidnapping and murder of the two Israeli soldiers in the Negev Desert
       was enough proof for Hamas that Mabhouh was the right man for the job.

       Mabhouh hid in the Gaza Strip for the first few months after the
       killings, and then he fled to Egypt. The government in Cairo initially
       contemplated putting him on trial or extraditing him to Israel, but
       fearing that this could trigger an uprising by the Muslim Brotherhood,
       it decided to deport the Hamas agent to Libya instead.

       Escaping Death

       Later on, Mabhouh went to Jordan, where he developed a Hamas base from
       which he smuggled weapons into the Palestinian West Bank and planned
       attacks against Israeli tourists. He was expelled from the country in
       1995, just as the entire Hamas leadership would later be expelled.
       Mabhouh moved to Damascus, where he established contact with the
       Iranian Revolutionary Guards.

       He obtained money and rockets in Iran, and he collected donations in
       the Gulf States to fund terrorist attacks during the second Intifada.
       Until then, Hamas had waged its war against Israel with unguided
       short-range rockets, but under Mabhouh's leadership Hamas was able to
       fire longer-range missiles into the Gaza Strip.

       In February 2009, Mabhouh narrowly escaped death when an Israeli drone
       attacked a convoy he was traveling with in Sudan. The trucks were
       presumably loaded with Iranian Fajr rockets.

       Hamas and Iran -- hardly anyone embodied Israel's two enemies to the
       degree that Mahmoud al-Mabhouh did. It was time to turn the \"Red
       Page.\"

       Mabhouh was constantly traveling between China, Iran, Syria, Sudan and
       the UAE. The Mossad agents decided that Dubai was the best place for
       an assassination. The city is open to tourists and businesspeople, and
       gaining entry with a Western passport is unproblematic.
       A first assassination attempt failed in November 2009. A Caesarea
       commando unit had tried to kill Mabhouh, possibly with poison that had
       been smeared onto light switches and fixtures in his hotel room. The
       victim fell ill, but he survived. The agents vowed that the next time
       they would not leave Dubai until they could verify Mabhouh's death
       with their own eyes.

       At 1:10 a.m. on Jan. 19, 2010, the last two Caesarea agents, Gail
       Folliard and Kevin Daveron, landed in Dubai on a flight from Paris.
       Together with Peter Elvinger, who had flown in from Zurich, they
       formed the operations unit.

       Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2010, Late Morning
       Unlike other intelligence agencies, the Mossad cannot provide its
       agents with real passports corresponding to a false identity. The
       primary countries in which it operates have no diplomatic relations
       with Israel. Even the most harmless-seeming tourists would be detained
       upon arrival if they were traveling on an Israeli passport. Instead,
       the Mossad usually uses the passports of Israelis with dual
       citizenship or forged passports from other countries.

       Peter Elvinger and the members of his team checked into various
       hotels. All of their passports, with the exception of the German
       passport, were forged. They were operating like avatars, using stolen
       identities. The real people whose names were being used would later
       testify that they had been completely unaware of the operation.

       The first part of the operation had succeeded. The Caesarea commando
       unit had put itself into position, safely and unnoticed. Elvinger and
       his team members paid their hotel expenses in cash or with prepaid
       money cards issued by Payoneer, a US company. This would prove to be a
       mistake in the \"Plasma Screen\" operation.

       Because the Payoneer cards used by most of the 27 members of the
       commando unit are relatively rare in Dubai, investigators later
       managed to narrow down their list of suspects relatively quickly. The
       CEO of Payoneer, Yuval Tal, is a former member of an elite unit in the
       Israeli army.

       The Same Contact Numbers

       The commando unit made a second mistake when its members used
       intermediaries in Austria to communicate with one another. Under the
       system an agent would call a number in Vienna to be connected to
       another agent's mobile phone.

       Although this was done to conceal calls, the system had a drawback. As
       soon as investigators had obtained the call list of one suspect, they
       could easily determine who else was using the same contact numbers in
       Austria.

       Both the use of the prepaid cards and the telephone server in Vienna
       were not mistakes that would jeopardize the entire operation. But they
       would make it more difficult for the team members to cover their
       tracks. Furthermore, the UAE is not one of the so-called \"base
       countries,\" where Mossad agents in trouble can take refuge in an
       Israeli embassy or get help from the intelligence agencies of Israel's
       allies.

       The Emirates are referred to as a \"target country\" in intelligence
       jargon. If an agent's cover is blown there, he or she could face
       torture or even the death penalty. Given the risk, why were the
       Caesarea team members so careless?

       Underestimating Dubai

       They underestimated Dubai, and they underestimated a man whose office
       is on the sixth floor of the headquarters of the Dubai Police, about
       three kilometers (1.9 miles) from room 230 at the Al Bustan.

       Lieutenant General Dahi Khalfan Tamim is not a man who cares much for
       diplomacy. He is a gruff cop with a biting sense of humor and
       possessing the kind of self-confidence government officials have who
       enjoy the full support of their superiors. Tamim has only one
       superior: the ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.

       At 19, Tamim graduated from the Royal Police Academy in Amman, Jordan,
       the most respected police academy in the Arab world. Ten years later,
       in 1980, he was appointed police chief of Dubai. Since then, the
       emirate has boomed more than almost any other part of the world.
       Lieutenant General Tamim's job has been to ensure that Dubai's boom
       could move forward without significant crime problems.

       Planes take off and land by the minute in front of the plate-glass
       window in Tamim's office. Dubai is in a central location, roughly
       equidistant from Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan. There are more
       Iranians and Pakistanis living there than natives of Dubai; the city
       has attracted hundreds of thousands of migrants from some of the
       world's most explosive regions. People are constantly coming and
       going, large amounts of money are at stake, and the Islamic banking
       system is a nightmare for any police detective. Tamim knows that Dubai
       has everything it takes to become the region's crime hub -- and he has
       made it his mission to prevent that from happening.

       He has purchased the best available hardware and software in the
       United States. Government funding for surveillance systems is
       unlimited in the UAE, and to make things even easier for the police,
       no one worries about data privacy.
       Not Even a Proxy War

       \"We know,\" he says, \"that many Israelis come here with non-Israeli
       passports, and we treat them the way we treat anyone else. We protect
       their lives just as we protect the lives of others, and we don't
       concern ourselves with their religion. But we also don't want Dubai to
       become a third-party country where Israelis kill Palestinians.\"

       Tamim sees police work as a craft. Ideologues of all stripes -- Arabs,
       Marxists, Islamists -- disgust him. \"If I were a Palestinian,\" he
       says, \"I wouldn't support Fatah or Hamas.\"

       There is no topic Tamim finds more interesting than Israel. The
       country that dealt such a devastating blow to the Arabs in 1967. That
       year, Tamim's 16th, is a benchmark for him. \"The Jews resemble us much
       more closely, in terms of religion, language and many other respects,
       than the Europeans or the Americans,\" he says.

       He says he even understands that the Jews must defend themselves, says
       Tamim, pointing out that millions of them were murdered in Europe.
       \"(Former Egyptian President Gamal Abdel) Nasser said that he intended
       to drive them into the sea,\" he says. \"Okay, then they had a right to
       fight back. But today? We don't want war.\"

       Not even a proxy war, and certainly not one outside his office door.

       Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2010, Afternoon
       Mabhouh arrived in Dubai on Emirates flight EK 912 from Damascus. He
       handed the immigration control officer a Palestinian passport in the
       name of Mahmoud Abd al-Rauf Mohammed Hassan, which stated his
       profession as \"merchant.\" At least that was correct.

       A Mossad team had expected Mabhouh at the terminal and notified the
       others, who then followed him to the hotel. The Al Bustan, part of a
       group called \"The Leading Hotels of the World,\" is especially popular
       among transit passengers who need a place to stay after a late-night
       arrival.

       Travelers are constantly pulling their trolley cases across the
       polished marble floors in the lobby, where noise is drowned out by the
       sound of water in the fountains or muted by thick carpeting. The rooms
       on the second floor are off a narrow hallway with only one access
       point, making the area easy to secure and the perfect place to commit
       a crime.

       Two agents carrying tennis rackets and with towels thrown over their
       shoulders had been waiting in the lobby since 2:12 p.m.

       Tamim would later explain that this was their most glaring mistake,
       because, as he says, no real tennis player walks around with his
       tennis racket out of its case.
       He Knew He Was a Target

       Mohammed Haroun, a Palestinian businessman with a German passport,
       installed the security cameras at the Al Bustan Rotana. \"It's funny
       that the suspects believed that they could hide under a cap,\" says
       Haroun, the head of Security Advice Services. \"But I know where and at
       what angle to install the cameras.\"
       The security camera images show Mabhouh looking around as he checks in
       at the front desk. He looked over his shoulder as he walked out of the
       elevator onto the second floor. He knew that he was a target of one of
       the world's most effective intelligence agencies. He didn't seem
       overly concerned about the two tennis players sharing the elevator
       with him.

       When Mabhouh, an unobtrusive, rotund man with a moustache, stepped out
       of the elevator, he had five hours left to live.

       The two tennis players noted Mabhouh's room number, 230, a non-smoking
       room, and sent it to Elvinger in a text message. They also sent him
       the number of the room across the hall, 237, and Elvinger promptly
       called the hotel to reserve the room. Then he booked his return
       flight, to Zu:rich via Doha.

       One of the cameras in front of the hotel recorded the mirror image of
       a white delivery van with tinted windows. A few of the agents walked
       to the vehicle but then turned around abruptly. They had apparently
       mistaken it for a vehicle being driven by an accomplice.

       A Borrowed Name

       This would put the investigators on the trail of a 62-year-old British
       citizen named Christopher Lockwood. According to the Wall Street
       Journal, Lockwood had his name changed in 1994 from the name he was
       using at the time, Yehuda Lustig. But that name, the Journal
       discovered, also proved to be false, a name borrowed from a young
       soldier killed in the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

       At 4:23 p.m., Mabhouh left the Al Bustan. Coincidentally, a Mossad
       agent was going the same way.

       Despite their subsequent eagerness to show off their achievements, the
       Dubai police have had little to say about what Mabhouh was doing in
       the four hours before returning to the hotel. \"As far as I know,\"
       Tamim said at the time, \"he had a ticket to China and then on to Sudan
       -- or the other way around. He may have made a stopover here to
       unwind.\"

       For a man like Mabhouh, unwinding might include discussing an arms
       deal for the Gaza Strip, one of the world's most explosive pieces of
       real estate. According to Israeli sources, Mabhouh met with a banker
       who had already helped him with a number of international arms deals
       in the past, as well as with his usual contact with the Iranian
       Revolutionary Guards, who had flown to Dubai to coordinate two major
       shipments of weapons for Hamas in the coming months. It is
       understandable that the police chief in Dubai prefers not to discuss
       the issue. Although the UAE has pledged to strictly comply with
       international sanctions against Iran, implementation is another story.
       Iran is nearby, and there is a powerful Iranian community in Dubai.

       Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2010, Evening
       The actual kill-team entered the hotel at 6:34 p.m. There were two
       pairs of agents, all four of them broad-shouldered men wearing
       baseball caps and carrying backpacks and shopping bags. The two
       reconnaissance teams already in the Al Bustan were withdrawn, to avoid
       attracting attention, and replaced with two others. One of the teams
       was disguised as British tourists wearing sun hats.

       At 8 p.m., the six agents took up their positions in the hallway
       outside Mabhouh's room. A specialist manipulated the electronic lock
       to the door of room 230 so that the key card from the room across the
       hall would also work.

       Gail Folliard and Kevin Daveron were assigned to secure the hallway.
       Both had already changed into new disguises at other hotels in the
       area, and both were wearing wigs. Daveron was wearing a false
       moustache and the uniform worn by Al Bustan employees. Just as the
       agents were working with the door lock, a man walked into the hallway,
       unable to find his room. Daveron, posing as a hotel employee, managed
       to divert the man away from the hallway.

       At 8:24 p.m., Mabhouh returned to the hotel through the revolving door
       in the lobby. Carrying a plastic bag with new shoes, he took the
       elevator to the second floor. He didn't notice the man with the
       moustache, wearing a hotel uniform, or the woman in the dark wig who
       had been pacing back and forth across the patterned brown carpeting
       for half an hour.

       Under the Mattress

       Mabhouh went into his room. It is unlikely that his encounter with the
       four killers waiting behind the door lasted very long. The only signs
       of a struggle were the few broken slats of the bed frame that were
       later found under the mattress.

       While preparing for the operation, the team had agreed that they
       wanted Mabhouh's death to look as natural as possible. Anything else
       would have resulted in a massive police effort. The airport would have
       been closed, making it impossible for the commando unit to safely
       leave the country.
       The investigative report states that the victim was injected with
       succinylcholine, a drug that causes muscle paralysis in less than a
       minute. Mabhouh was then suffocated with a pillow, according to the
       investigators.

       The truth is that it is still unclear how exactly the Hamas officer
       was killed. Succinylcholine is easily detected in the body of a dead
       person, and the injection site should also be visible. And as anyone
       familiar with TV crime dramas knows, violent suffocation produces
       clear marks in the face, including areas of compression, tiny burst
       blood vessels in the pupils and cracked lips.

       It is hard to imagine that a technically sophisticated intelligence
       agency like the Mossad would resort to such simple methods -- and
       certainly not in an operation on hostile territory.

       By 8:46 p.m., the first two perpetrators were standing in front of the
       elevator that would take them down to the lobby. In the videos taken
       with the security cameras, it seems obvious that the men are pumped up
       with adrenaline, as they shift their weight back and forth, from one
       foot to the other, like boxers. One is still wearing a rubber glove,
       unusual for a hotel guest.

       On a Plane to Paris

       The members of the team left the Al Bustan in groups of two and took
       taxis to the airport. Folliard left the hotel holding the arm of
       another agent and with a plastic bag in her left hand.

       Daveron secured the elevator. He was the last to leave room 237,
       talking on his mobile phone and pulling his trolley case behind him.

       A short time later, Daveron and Folliard were sitting on a plane to
       Paris, while two others were on a flight to South Africa. The body of
       \"Plasma Screen\" had not yet been discovered and was still lying in
       room 230.

       Everything had gone according to plan, at least up to that point. It
       would take almost a week before Tamim learned of the death of the
       senior Hamas weapons negotiators, who was killed practically within
       view of police headquarters.

       JAN. 24 or 25, 2010

       The Hamas leadership in Damascus noticed that something was wrong when
       it didn't hear from Mabhouh. A man who had worked for Mabhouh was sent
       to the morgue in Dubai. After that, Hamas officials put in a call to
       Dubai police headquarters from Damascus. Yes, they admitted, they had
       allowed one of their senior members to travel to Dubai under a false
       passport, and they had neglected to notify Tamim, the super cop, in
       advance, and now something had gone wrong, very wrong.

       According to eyewitnesses, Tamim then flew into a rage and shouted
       into the phone: \"You can pack up yourselves and your bank accounts and
       your weapons and your fake passports and get out of my country.\"

       Tamim had a problem. Despite being equipped with the most
       sophisticated surveillance system in the Arab world, he had no idea
       that an Israeli commando operation had been executed successfully in
       Dubai, under his very eyes. He had been blind.

       This explains his fit of rage. And it also explains the massive
       investigation he was now ordering his troops to undertake. He may have
       been unable to prevent the killing, but now, at least, he would get
       his revenge, in the form of the investigation. And he would ensure
       that the investigation itself would become a personal triumph --
       Lieutenant General Tamim, the supercop of Dubai.

       Tamim had his team compile a list of everyone who had entered the
       country shortly before the killing and left soon afterwards. The names
       were compared with those of people who had traveled to Dubai in
       February, March, June and November 2009, the months in which Mabhouh
       was also there.

       Some Hollywood Film
       The names on this list, in turn, were compared with the hotel guest
       lists and the videos taken by well over 1,000 surveillance cameras.
       Tamim had the surveillance systems of hotels, malls and the airport
       analyzed. The process soon yielded an image corresponding to every
       name on his passenger and hotel guest lists, so that he was now able
       to compare the images with the Al Bustan security camera videos.

       The other members of the commando unit were identified once Tamim's
       agents had analyzed the Payoneer payments and the conspicuous calls to
       the numbers in Austria.

       All of this took much longer than the \"24 hours\" Tamim mentioned in
       his first press conference. Nevertheless, it did enable him to portray
       the Mossad operation like some Hollywood film.

       Two Palestinians were also arrested in Jordan and extradited to Dubai.
       Anwar Shaibar and Ahmed Hassanain, men believed to be associated with
       the Palestinian Fatah movement, had allegedly helped the team book
       hotel rooms and reserve rental cars. Investigators later changed their
       assessment of the Palestinians, concluding that Hamas had fabricated
       the story to implicate its political rivals in the case.

       At first, Tamim had refused to believe that the Mossad had conducted
       an operation on his doorstep. \"We thought, until the very last minute,
       that another Palestinian group had killed him,\" says Tamim. \"We never
       thought of the Mossad. Only after we had gathered together all the
       faces and all the disguises on the surveillance images did we realize
       that they weren't Palestinians -- that they couldn't be.\"

       Friday, Jan. 29, 2010
       Mahmoud Mabhouh was buried in Yarmuk, a Palestinian neighborhood in
       Damascus.

       Tamim had assembled most of the parts in his puzzle. He notified his
       superior, the emir. And in an interview with Al Jazeera, he said that
       he could not rule out the possibility of the Mossad being involved in
       the murder. The Reuters news agency also reported Mabhouh's death as a
       murder, but the news attracted little attention. Only a few people
       recognized the story's potential.

       SUNDAY, JAN. 30, 2010, EVENING

       At a reception, US Ambassador Richard Olson asked UAE Foreign Minister
       Abdullah Bin Zayed about the murder at the Al Bustan. After making a
       few phone calls, Zayed decided that the matter was important enough to
       be brought to the attention of his superiors.

       The two de facto rulers of the United Arab Emirates, Crown Prince
       Mohammed Bin Zayed of Abu Dhabi and Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al
       Maktoum, the prime minister and ruler of Dubai, debated on how to
       proceed in the case. They concluded that they could do nothing or they
       could \"disclose more or less everything the investigations had
       uncovered.\"

       The two sheikhs chose the second option.

       MONDAY, FEB. 15, 2010

       It was time for Tamim to take his revenge. The police chief appeared
       before the press, holding up a piece of paper with the photos and
       names, against a red background, of 11 murder suspects. But that
       wasn't all. A triumph has to be placed in context, and timing is
       critical.

       Tamim presented the international press with the video footage
       documenting the crime.
       He had already solved a spectacular jewelry heist at the Wafi Mall in
       2007, secured the conviction of Egyptian real estate tycoon Hisham
       Talaat Moustafa, a friend of President Hosni Mubarak, for the murder
       of a Lebanese singer in 2008 and, in 2009, had solved the murder of
       Chechen warlord Sulim Yamadayev. But his film about the Mossad
       assassination of Mahmoud Al Mabhouh was the highpoint of his career.
       Dahi Khalfan Tamim had made the Israelis look like fools.

       In the ensuing days, Tamim paid close attention to the impact of his
       appearances. He was ultimately praised and even celebrated, not only
       in the Emirates, but also in Iraq, Iran and the West -- and, in the
       end, in Israel. Tamim doesn't remember the name of the Israeli
       journalist who interviewed him via email, but he does know that he
       responded right away. \"She was young,\" he says, \"and very
       professional. The entire Israeli press, they all treated me very
       fairly.\" Tamim was pleased with the way things had turned out.

       WEDNESDAY, FEB. 24, 2010

       The lieutenant general sent a document to the central bank and the
       foreign ministry in Abu Dhabi, together with the request that the
       minister of state forward it to the US Embassy. The document read:

       \"Excellency Sultan Al Suwiadi, UAE Central Bank Governor. Subject:
       Credit Cards MC 5115-2600-1600-6190, MC 5115-2600-1600-5317, MC
       5301-3800-3201-7106. General Management of the State Security offers
       greetings, and asks your Excellency to direct the money laundry and
       suspicious transactions unit at the Central Bank to urgently obtain
       details of the above credit cards, in addition to details for
       purchases, accounts, and payments on those cards, as the users of
       those cards were involved in the murder of Mahmoud Mabhouh. Those
       cards were issued by META BANK in the state of Iowa, USA. Thank you
       for your kind cooperation.\"

       On the same day, State Minister Mohammed Anwar Gargash delivered the
       letter from Dubai to the legal attache at the US Embassy in Abu Dhabi.
       Ambassador Olson forwarded the letter to Washington and requested that
       the matter be addressed promptly, noting that the issue had already
       been raised in a meeting between the foreign minister and US Secretary
       of State Hillary Clinton on the previous day. The Americans knew who
       had used the credit cards in question.

       All they had to do was ask the government in Tel Aviv.

       On June 4, 2010, almost exactly a year after the Mossad agent had been
       issued a German passport, Alexander Varin traveled to Warsaw. Coming
       from Tel Aviv and on his way to the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, he was
       merely changing planes in Warsaw. He showed the Polish border control
       agents his passport, which identified him as Uri Brodsky. An arrest
       warrant had been issued for a person by that name, following a request
       by the German federal prosecutor's office. Varin, aka Brodsky, was
       arrested.

       Investigators with Germany's BKA had painstakingly reconstructed
       Varin's flight routes. In the previous months, his travels had taken
       him to Austria, Lithuania, Latvia, Turkey and the Czech Republic, as
       well as several other places. Varin, a tall, heavy-set man, pulled a
       hood over his head when he was led into the Warsaw courtroom. He
       appeared to be a logistics expert of sorts for the Mossad in Europe,
       and he was outfitted with several identities. The Mossad had not known
       that the name Brodsky had already been used since the hotel stay in
       Cologne a year earlier. It was yet another mistake.

       The matter of his extradition, which the German courts were
       requesting, turned into a tough battle. The Israelis applied a great
       deal of pressure to the Polish government in order to prevent
       extradition. The Poles eventually found a Solomonic solution: Brodsky,
       aka Varin, would be extradited to Germany, but once there he could
       only be charged with a passport violation.

       Mossad Under Pressure

       When the Israeli was extradited on Aug. 12, 2010, the embassy hired
       two of the best and most expensive German attorneys. They paid the
       bail money of EUR100,000, and when Varin was released from detention
       on Aug. 13, he left Germany for Tel Aviv the same day. At the end of
       last year, a court in Cologne suspended the case in return for a
       EUR60,000 fine. It was a solution that all sides could live with, that
       is, if it weren't for the German arrest warrant against Varin, who was
       suspected of engaging in espionage. If Varin tried to enter Germany
       tomorrow, he would be taken into custody at the border.

       The operation in Dubai has put the Mossad under great pressure (even
       though the Israelis have yet to officially confirm that they had
       anything to do with the matter). The head of the Caesarea special unit
       offered his resignation, but it was not accepted. This was not the
       case with Meir Dagan, the head of the Mossad. Even though he had hoped
       for an extension of his term prior to the operation, Prime Minister
       Benjamin Netanyahu appointed a successor in the wake of the botched
       operation. Dagan left his office on Jan. 6, 2011.

       In a press conference, Tamim called for the resignation of Prime
       Minister Netanyahu and promised to pursue the culprits \"until the end
       of time.\" That seems to be about the amount of time he will need.

       Nevertheless, most Israelis see the attack on Mabhouh as a success.
       \"It is difficult to call the Dubai operation a failure,\" says Avi
       Issacharoff, an expert on the Arab world with the Israeli daily
       newspaper Ha'aretz. Although Israel's reputation has been harmed
       internationally, says Issacharoff, \"the operational goal was achieved.
       Hamas has seen that it is vulnerable, and the attackers made it home
       unharmed.\" The Israelis will simply have to be more careful.

       Next time, that is.

       By Ronen Bergman, Christoph Schult, Alexander Smoltczyk, Holger Stark
       and Bernhard Zand

       Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan

       --

       Sean Noonan

       Tactical Analyst

       Office: +1 512-279-9479

       Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

       www.stratfor.com

     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

     No virus found in this incoming message.
     Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
     Version: 9.0.872 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3386 - Release Date: 01/17/11
     01:34:00

   --

   Sean Noonan

   Tactical Analyst

   Office: +1 512-279-9479

   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

   www.stratfor.com

   No virus found in this incoming message.
   Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
   Version: 9.0.872 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3386 - Release Date: 01/17/11
   01:34:00
","2011-01-17 22:48:38",1,"2012-03-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1951845_re-ct-spiegel-on-dubai-assassinatino-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:ct@stratfor.com","ct@stratfor.com",""
1956493,"Re: [CT] Fwd: FW: [Customer Service/Technical Issues] Atricles on
 Wikileaks
","   Definitely.

   I would send a request to writers to do this with ALL our wikileak pieces
   and send it to our U.S. gov't clients directly as a package.

   Show them that we care that the Administration is being stupid.

   On 12/8/10 10:04 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     if this guy is a paying customer we could reply and quickly edit out the
     word wikileaks with a find/replace in Word and send him our last two
     articles on it.  Might as well help a brother out. 
     On 12/8/10 10:02 AM, Marko Papic wrote:

       Speaking of closing the barn door after the horses have already run
       away...

       What insane overkill.

       -------- Original Message --------

        Subject: FW: [Customer Service/Technical Issues] Atricles on          
                 Wikileaks                                                    
           Date: Wed, 8 Dec 2010 09:30:43 -0600                               
           From: Service <service@stratfor.com>                               
       Reply-To: Responses List <responses@stratfor.com>, Analyst List        
                 <analysts@stratfor.com>                                      
             To: <responses@stratfor.com>                                     

 Ryan Sims
 STRATFOR
 Global Intelligence
 T: 512-744-4087
 F: 512-744-0239
 ryan.sims@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
 

 -----Original Message-----
 From: noreply@stratfor.com [mailto:noreply@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of
 vickie.reschke@conus.army.mil
 Sent: Wednesday, December 08, 2010 9:15 AM
 To: service@stratfor.com
 Subject: [Customer Service/Technical Issues] Atricles on Wikileaks

 vickie.reschke sent a message using the contact form at 
 https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

 The US Army is restricted from viewing any articles with the word Wikileaks

 contained within.
 Is there any way you can replace the word from the article with something 
 \"Assange\" or something else if the article doesn't actually reveal the 
 classified content?
 We don't want to cause a security compromise on our system, but the fallout

 from the divulged data is a valid concern.
 In the mean time, is it possible to send me the article on \"WikiLeaks and 
 U.S. Critical Infrastructure\" your site published yesterday?






     --

     Sean Noonan

     Tactical Analyst

     Office: +1 512-279-9479

     Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

     www.stratfor.com

   --

   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

   Marko Papic

   Geopol Analyst - Eurasia

   STRATFOR

   700 Lavaca Street - 900

   Austin, Texas

   78701 USA

   P: + 1-512-744-4094

   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2010-12-08 17:06:56",1,"2012-02-29 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1956493_re-ct-fwd-fw-customer-service-technical-issues-atricles-on.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:ct@stratfor.com","ct@stratfor.com",""
1966214,"INDIA/CT - Bhopal gas leak convictions not enough, say campaigners
","            Bhopal gas leak convictions not enough, say campaigners

   http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/south_asia/10260109.stm
   Monday, 7 June 2010 19:29 UK

   Convictions over a gas plant leak that killed thousands of people in 1984
   in the Indian city of Bhopal have been heavily criticised by campaigners.

   Amnesty International described the two-year sentences for eight people as
   \"too little, too late\".

   The convictions are the first since the disaster at the Union Carbide
   plant - the world's worst industrial accident.

   The eight Indians, all former plant employees, were convicted of \"death by
   negligence\".

   One was convicted posthumously. The others are expected to appeal.

   Nityanand Jayaraman, of the International Campaign for Justice in Bhopal
   campaign group, told the BBC the punishment imposed on Union Carbide was
   wholly inadequate.

   \"I share the Bhopalis' sense of outrage and betrayal,\" he said.

   \"I feel that it portends ill for the country that industrialists and
   corporations are being told that they can actually get away with murder,
   and today's verdict is essentially that - a signal that [after] the
   world's worst industrial disaster, the people who were accused of that are
   just being let off with a rap on the knuckles.\"

   Satinath Sarangi, an activist also campaigning on behalf of Bhopal
   victims, told the BBC that justice would not be done until US executives
   from Union Carbide at the time of the incident - including the company's
   former head, Warren Anderson - were brought to India to face justice.

   \"This is not the justice that we have been waiting for, because the
   principal accused - Warren Anderson, Union Carbide corporation USA - are
   not here,\" he said.

   \"The charges that have been [laid] on the Indian accused have essentially
   been the charges that you would put for a traffic accident. This is indeed
   a very sad day for us.\"

   Forty tonnes of a toxin called methyl isocyanate leaked from the pesticide
   factory and settled over slums in Bhopal on 3 December 1984.

   Official figures show at least 3,000 people died at the time and as many
   as 15,000 have died since.

   Campaigners put the death toll as high as 25,000 and say the horrific
   effects of the gas continue to this day.

   'Unacceptable'

   Amnesty International also called on the Indian and US governments to take
   legal action against US executives of Union Carbide.

   \"These are historic convictions, but it is too little, too late,\" said
   Audrey Gaughran, an Amnesty director.

   \"Twenty-five years is an unacceptable length of time for the survivors of
   the disaster and families of the dead to have waited for a criminal trial
   to reach a conclusion.

   \"While the Indian employees have now been tried and convicted, the foreign
   accused have been able to evade justice simply by remaining abroad. This
   is totally unacceptable.\"

   Rashida Bee, president of the Bhopal Gas Women's Workers group, told the
   AFP news agency that \"justice will be done in Bhopal only if individuals
   and corporations responsible are punished in an exemplary manner\".

   Although Warren Anderson was named as an accused and later declared an
   \"absconder\" by the court, he was not mentioned in Monday's verdict.

   The eight convicted on Monday were Keshub Mahindra, the chairman of the
   Indian arm of the Union Carbide (UCIL); VP Gokhale, managing director;
   Kishore Kamdar, vice-president; J Mukund, works manager; SP Chowdhury,
   production manager; KV Shetty, plant superintendent; SI Qureshi,
   production assistant. All of them are Indians.

   The seven former employees, some of whom are now in their 70s, were also
   ordered to pay fines of 100,000 Indian rupees (A-L-1,467; $2,125) apiece.

   The site of the former pesticide plant is now abandoned.

   It was taken over by the state government of Madhya Pradesh in 1998, but
   environmentalists say poison is still found there.

   Campaigners say Bhopal has an unusually high incidence of children with
   birth defects and growth deficiency, as well as cancers, diabetes and
   other chronic illnesses.

   Twenty years ago Union Carbide paid $470m (A-L-282m) in compensation to
   the Indian government.

   Dow Chemicals, which bought the company in 1999, says this settlement
   resolved all existing and future claims against the company.

   Paulo Gregoire
   ADP
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1966214_india-ct-bhopal-gas-leak-convictions-not-enough-say.html","paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com","","os@stratfor.com",""
1971095,"Re: [CT] Did Mossad kill German politician involved in Iran-Contra
 scandal?
","Dr Brandenberger said that computer analysis of the original 1987
autopsy data makes it “next to certain that Barschel was injected with
[the strong sedative] Noludar shortly before his death through the rectum”

Sean Noonan wrote:
>
>
>   Did Mossad kill German politician involved in Iran-Contra scandal?
>
> Posted on November 22, 2010
> <http://intelligencenews.wordpress.com/2010/11/22/01-600/> by
> intelNews
> <http://intelligencenews.wordpress.com/author/intelligencenews/>|
> Leave a comment
> <http://intelligencenews.wordpress.com/2010/11/22/01-600/#respond>
> Uwe Barschel
>
> Uwe Barschel
>
> By *JOSEPH FITSANAKIS* | intelNews.org |
> Accusations of Israeli involvement in the suspicious death of a German
> politician have been revived, following new autopsy evidence revealed
> by a medical examiner. The case involves the death of Christian
> Democratic Union politician Uwe Barschel, who on October 11, 1987, was
> found dead in the bathtub of room 317 of the Beau-Rivage hotel in
> Geneva, Switzerland. His sudden death occurred less than a month after
> he was forced to resign from the post of Governor of West Germany’s
> Schleswig-Holstein state, following his involvement in a dirty-tricks
> campaign against his rival Björn Engholm, of Germany’s Social
> Democratic Party. Swiss authorities, based on an initial postmortem
> that revealed lethal levels of barbiturates in Barschel’s system,
> ruled the death a suicide. But now Dr Hans Brandenberger, who was one
> of the toxicological experts that examined Barschel, claims that he is
> possession of new evidence that points to murder as the cause of the
> German politician’s death. Speaking
> <http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article11113360/CDU-Politiker-will-neue-Ermittlungen-im-Fall-Barschel.html>
> on Sunday to Germany’s quality /Welt am Sonntag/ broadsheet, Dr
> Brandenberger said that computer analysis of the original 1987 autopsy
> data makes it “next to certain that Barschel was injected with [the
> strong sedative] Noludar shortly before his death through the rectum”.
> The toxicologist claims that the strong tranquilizer was part of a
> complex cocktail of drugs that was force-fed to the German politician
> after he was sedated, probably with the help of a spiked drink. Dr
> Brandenberger’s allegations have breathed new life to claims that
> Barschel was in fact murdered by Israeli intelligence agency Mossad,
> who targeted him because of his inside knowledge of Iran-Contra
> scandal dealings. Specifically, Barschel is said to have known about
> an alleged transfer of Israeli military aircraft to the Islamic
> Republic of Iran, facilitated under United States oversight through
> German mediators. Following his resignation from his governor post, he
> had threatened to publicize insider accounts of the alleged transfer.
> During the Iran-Contra Scandal (1985-1986), Israel acted as
> Washington’s conduit in supplying US-made weapons to Iran and then
> channeling the profits to the Contras paramilitary mercenaries
> fighting Nicaragua’s Sandinista government. Incidentally
> <http://intelligencenews.wordpress.com/about/latest-analysis/content/analysis009/>,
> Israel did so in full knowledge of the fact that the Iranian
> government was at that time the primary military supplier of
> Palestinian militant group Hamas.
>
> -- 
>
> Sean Noonan
>
> Tactical Analyst
>
> Office: +1 512-279-9479
>
> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
>
> Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>
> www.stratfor.com
>
","2010-11-22 19:28:26",1,"2012-08-05 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1971095_re-ct-did-mossad-kill-german-politician-involved-in-iran.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:ct@stratfor.com","ct@stratfor.com",""
1976380,"[latam] INSIGHT - PARAGUAY - Foreign Relations and non-govt,
 non-military actors
","   SOURCE: PY 503
   ATTRIBUTION: Paraguayan politics, society
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Consultant for Govt Commissions of IR, previous
   experience Foreign Min
   PUBLICATION: If desired but this is really just background
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: untested
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 6
   SPECIAL HANDLING: none
   DISTRIBUTION: Latam
   SOURCE HANDLER: Allison

   BRAZIL
   - In the past Paraguay used to use its relations with Argentina and Brazil
   as leverage with one against the other.  Now there's a general consensus
   in Paraguay that the relationship with Argentina doesn't matter nearly as
   much as it's relationship with Brazil and that it is pretty firmly set in
   Brazil's sphere of influence.  Brazil is seen as the #1 country of
   importance right now for Paraguay.

   - Trade with Brazil is problem for Paraguay, especially since the latter
   doesn't produce value-added goods.  Many time Paraguay soy and wood will
   be bought in large quantities by Brazil and then exported (as is or with
   value-added) as a Brazilian product. 

   - Paraguay is historical an unstable country and it does makes sense for
   Brazil to have troop exercises along the border. He said that, in a very
   exaggerated scenario, Paraguayans he themselves are the threat for
   sabotaging Itaipu - either unrest getting out of control, some one just
   doing something stupid or an extreme way of trying to get revenge on
   Brazil.  He said  that, though he doesn't see something like this as
   extremely likely, you can't discount it as a random possibility should
   Paraguay become unstable again and for this reason it makes sense (to the
   source) for Brazil to have troops along the Southern Border.  Source said
   that in his conversations with Brazilian officials he was told Brazil's
   military has a contingency plan to secure Itaipu in the event its
   production security is compromised (again this last sentence is secondary
   info).

   ITAIPU
   - A delegation for Paraguay's legislature is expected to visit the
   Brazilian Congress within the next week or 2 to discuss the approval of an
   agreement made in July 2009.  However, the general sentiment in Paraguay
   is that Brazil will not do anything important regarding Itaipu until after
   the October elections.

   - In December Brazil will discuss its budget for next year.  Paraguay sort
   of views this as an informal deadline for approving the July 2009
   agreement that alters prices/fees.  The idea is that the 2010 budget will
   reflect Itaipu profits/purchases.  If the agreement doesn't get pass
   through before the budget is designed, then the expectation is that 2010
   budget won't take any price changes in to consideration.

   - There is very little infrastructure currently in place for Paraguay to
   export Itaipu electricity to customers other than Brazil come 2023.

   VENEZUELA
   - As mentioned, most Paraguayans don't care too much about foreign policy;
   they do however care very much about domestics politics.  The questions
   regarding Paraguay's relationship with Venezuela (a phenomenon) has been
   the source of so much debate because the issues has been internalized by
   Paraguayan political parties thus making it a topic of national debate
   (when ordinarily it'd go unnoticed).  The debate centers around parties'
   opinions abut Chavez (is he good or bad); if Chavez wasn't in office the
   question of Ven's entrance in to Mercosur would draw little if any
   attention/debate.

   - Paraguay feels that, to a large extent, it's in a position in which is
   must choose between the US and Venezuela.  It feels like you can't really
   be friends with both countries at once.  The fear is that, given the need
   for unanimity in many Mercosur decision, the Chavez presence would
   compromise possible future trade agreements with countries like the US.

   - The Senate just started a new session July 1.  The question of Ven's
   Mercosur membership is expected to be put back on the table during this
   session.

   - Within the past 4 or 5 years Colombia has shown an increased interest in
   collaborating, supporting in areas of security with Paraguay.

   CHINA
   - Paraguay is one of the biggest countries that recognizes Taiwan and the
   Pres of Taiwan makes yearly visits to Taiwan.  When Paraguay (government
   or politician) needs funds for a project it many times can just outright
   ask the Taiwanese for the money and it's freely handed over.

   - Paraguay has a huge amount of interest in pursuing its economic/trade
   agenda with China, especially in areas of investment.  Right now there is
   a popular belief that increasing commercial ties with China will not harm
   political ties with Taiwan.

   RUSSIA
   - Russia is a hugely important market for Paraguayan meat exports. 
   Paraguay saw the Russian Frgn Min's visit as a really big deal.

   - Paraguay was looking to improve relations/get a Russian embassy as far
   back as 2004.  Russia was a lot of talk but did little action.  In 2008
   Paraguay started talking to Ukraine about having an embassy in Paraguay. 
   In 2009 Russia opened its embassy in Asuncion; next to no advancements
   have been made with Ukraine.  Many Russian embassy employees in Asuncion
   still struggle with Spanish and the relations between the two were
   described as in their beginning but with mutual interest for development.

   - Paraguay doesn't have the money to buy many armament and often prefers
   to get things as donations rather than pay.  There is mutual interest on
   both parts to introduce arms/security as a major theme of bilateral
   interest but the relationship needs to develop further before such
   discussion can seriously occur and advance.

   OTHER ACTORS
   (this is primarily in response to interest in Paraguay's business
   community.  I had no idea what the important business community consisted
   of in Paraguay but at least now they are identified).

   - The media is a powerful entity in Paraguay in terms of being able to
   influence politics and controlling large amounts of money.  Depending on
   their own interests they will change who they support.  ABC is the main
   newspaper and was inaugurated by Stroessner. Radio Nanditu is the main
   radio company that was back in the day  run by a  crony of Stroessner.
   Telefuturo is the main television company.  I was told these companies
   have different owners but do communicate with one another.

   - Importers are the big business players in Asuncion and the importers'
   union does have political/financial weight.  Since Paraguay has no
   domestic industry it has no need for big tariffs on imported goods.  That
   said many importers  bring in goods not only for domestic consumption but
   also for  export to Brazil as well as for the informal/black market. (that
   is to say, they tend to import way more than Paraguay alone can consume) 
   In Paraguay a private company can set up its own port for trade along the
   rivers.  If you put the dock out there to send/receive shipments, you can
   import goods.  Customs officials will be sent from Asuncion these
   particular locations; it's a system that leaves an open door for
   corruption and smuggling.  Those representing business within Paraguay
   have also been able to amass small fortunes.  For example, former
   President of the Senate and influential politician  Miguel Carrizosa 
   earned most of his wealth by being one of the Voklswagon reps in Paraguay.

   - The Associacion Rural del Paraguay is also a  group that can exercise
   political power within Paraguay.  The members tend to be wealth and pretty
   large land owners.  Right now they are asking the Government to redeploy
   the military to the North to ensure security in the area; they are also 
   becoming more critical of the government for not taking this action.

   - There are only about 5,400 people working in the banking sector in
   Asuncion (according to an Ultima Hora news article yesterday).  Main banks
   in the country are: HSBC, Citibank, BBVA, Banco de la Nacion Argentina,
   Interbanco, Sudameris Bank, Banco do Brasil, Integracion, Amambay,
   Familiar, BNF, Vision Banco, Itapua and Promedio.
","2010-07-06 18:38:26",1,"2012-03-13 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1976380_-latam-insight-paraguay-foreign-relations-and-non-govt-non.html","michael.wilson@stratfor.com","mailto:latam@stratfor.com","latam@stratfor.com",""
1977338,"Re: [alpha] Musings on The Outfit
","   I know. Kid needs backup

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Wed, 6 Jul 2011 10:36:18 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Musings on The Outfit
   I think that was his point.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, July 6, 2011 10:35:24 AM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Musings on The Outfit

   Actually byu grads do try that. And die.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Marko Papic <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Wed, 6 Jul 2011 10:30:37 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] Musings on The Outfit
   I disagree... It's not a small percentage of field-jobs and it is not
   always about the right skills in the right places. This goes beyond gender
   discrimination. It has to also deal with cultural understandings,
   experience, etc. Let's forget that the thread is about women. It would be
   like putting a BYU grad with 6 weeks of Serbo-Croatian training to
   negotiate with Red Berets in 1999. Good luck with that.

   I think one could use this thread as an S-weekly topic.

   On 7/6/11 10:24 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

     Like I said, its a question of how resources are put to use. Some skills
     come naturally, some skills come with training (and that enhances the
     former category) and a few others are based on gender, such as
     conversing with a male islamist. But look how specific that last example
     is- whether its interrogation or recruiting, that's a very small
     percentage of jobs.

     Put the people with the right skills in the right places.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Karen Hooper <hooper@stratfor.com>
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 6 Jul 2011 10:11:56 -0500 (CDT)
     To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: [alpha] Musings on The Outfit
     Gender discrimination is appropriate in many circumstances. My only
     objection is to the assumption that women cannot be trained to react
     appropriately in a given situation. Clearly Khost was a fuck up. It was
     not a fuck up because she was a woman, but because she mishandled the
     situation. It sounds like her boss compounded the problem by failing to
     oversee the operation. Given that he was a white male and not a muslim
     detainee, I don't think we can excuse him from having done his job as a
     supervisor because she was a woman.

     There many be institutional pressures for him to fail at his job and for
     her to be poorly trained, but that's clearly an institutional problem.
     Your daughter had the grace and intelligence to put men in jobs where
     men should be. That should be the standard, and it should be clearly
     articulated. I don't think we're disagreeing on that.

     On 7/6/11 10:03 AM, George Friedman wrote:

       Gender does matter.  Sending a woman to interrogate a Muslim creates
       vast problems for example.  These are different cultures, different
       views of gender and human lives are at stake.  Using women in
       societies that hold them in contempt might be satisfying to American
       ideals and principles, but they can get people killed.  My daughter
       was ran an interrogation center in Iraq where the result of failure
       was death to many Americans. She couldn't be effective in that
       environment and had the grace to know it, so she did not do her job
       but handed off to men.  Iraqi men who would talk to American men would
       possibly be willing to die rather than talk to women.

       We talk about multi-culturalism and we talk about gender and the fact
       is that there are cultures in which women cannot be effect in doing
       intelligence. Placing women in jobs where the culture will make them
       fail is irresponsible and women demanding those jobs because of
       ideology is criminal.  It's a big world out there and the way others
       live isn't the way we live. Intelligence is not about reforming the
       world but getting information. There are places I wouldn't send a man
       and places I wouldn't send a woman.  Pretending that gender isn't a
       determining factor gets people killed.  I sometimes think that some of
       the gender fanatics are less concerned with that than with pretending
       that men and women can get all jobs done equally well.  They just
       can't. 

       My problem with the number of women in field positions is that they
       are going to fail because they are in that culture and they are women
       and people will die as a result.

       The policy of using women in posts where they will do more harm than
       good in order to push American ideology regardless of consequences is
       what the Agency is doing and it is one of the reasons, among others,
       that we experience intelligence failures.

       On 07/06/11 09:52 , Karen Hooper wrote:

         100 percent on board with that, and those are all things we've
         discussed quite a bit.

         I just want to make sure we're talking about crappy management and
         training, not gender.

         On 7/6/11 9:10 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

           She also arranged \"in the field\" for the 16 (yes 16) greeters to
           meet the GID asset and aQ double-agent  like it was a Stratfor
           happy hour.

           Sources are never met that way.  Its a 1x1 business. 

           Don't get me wrong, I'm grateful for her being there in the first
           place, but boneheaded mistakes by dumb assed bosses get people
           killed. 

           On 7/6/2011 9:03 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

             Career analyst w/out field ops experience. 

             The internal Agency report took the management team to the
             woodshed for sending her there without ops training. 

             On 7/6/2011 8:59 AM, Karen Hooper wrote:

               .... because she was a woman?

               On 7/6/11 8:39 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

                 The base chief woman (analyst) who died in Khost had been a
                 reports officer in London, prior to Khost.  Simply not
                 qualified for the field job. 

                 On 7/6/2011 8:26 AM, Sean Noonan wrote:

                   women are also arguably better at recruiting assets.  Then
                   number is not at all a bad thing, it's more a question of
                   how resources are put to use. 
                   On 7/6/11 7:44 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

 Baer advised the CIA is now 50% women.   The \"gender political
 correctness\" is causing the outfit to ship women to places they
 shouldn't be operating in the field (such as Khost.)   The bulk of the
 Agency have been hired post 9-11 with FNG's also in places they
 shouldn't be.  As a result, the Agency is re-hiring annuitants
 (retirees) for base chief jobs.  The influx of the women has created a
 can of worms with many wanting to be Station Chief's in places they also
 should not be.  The old white males can't say anything about assignments
 for fear of blow-back and lawsuits.

                   --

                   Sean Noonan

                   Tactical Analyst

                   Office: +1 512-279-9479

                   Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

                   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

                   www.stratfor.com

       --

       George Friedman

       Founder and CEO

       STRATFOR

       221 West 6th Street

       Suite 400

       Austin, Texas 78701

        

       Phone: 512-744-4319

       Fax: 512-744-4334

        

 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St., 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic
","2011-07-06 17:46:21",1,"2012-02-27 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1977338_re-alpha-musings-on-the-outfit-.html","friedman@att.blackberry.net","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1982174,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-11 13:59:34",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1982174_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1984023,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
","   Read these pieces to understand the dynamic of the radical
   environmentalists becoming more isolated and therefore progressively more
   prone to violence as they pull away from the moderating influence of their
   less violent colleagues. 
   The second piece talks about funding, but remember that these jabronis do
   not need much funding to blow things up or burn them down or k ill people.
    
   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/informants_bombs_and_lessons
   http://www.stratfor.com/direct_action_attacks_terrorism_another_name
   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/u_s_incendiary_activism_santa_cruz
   From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 17 Nov 2011 07:36:00 -0600
   To: <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Are they capable of killing or violence (question from the Rangers?) 

   On 11/17/2011 7:01 AM, scott stewart wrote:

     It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
     actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
     radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
      This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the
     movement was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were
     also committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
     From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
     Organization: STRATFOR
     Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
     To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green
     Resistance-NO CODE
     Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
     understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away
     from my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic
     indoctrination and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin
     chapter is not nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose
     website is a treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing
     up energy infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

     Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism,
     anarchism, radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go
     back living sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every
     pipeline and cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin
     DGR doesn't seem to have defined targets and goals (their meeting
     yesterday was a brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism
     means in Austin).

     just a few nice quotes from their central website:

     The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
     with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
     systems.

     What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the
     oceans, scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the
     climate, and putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and
     into the flesh of your children, your lover, your mother, into your own
     flesh? How much worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If
     there existed a resistance movement, would you join it?

     On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

       WHOA.
       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
       Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
       To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
       ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
       Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
       Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
       CODE
       New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
       agent.

       There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green
       Resistance. They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical
       named Lierre Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance:
       Strategy to Save the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it.
       The movement advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to
       reach their eco goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla
       tactics to defeat current institutions when it comes to the
       environment. Whether anyone in the Fed or elsewhere classifies this
       group as eco-terror or not, I don't know, but they are nothing but and
       should be watched.

       http://deepgreenresistance.org/

       The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
       hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
       not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on
       Nov. 5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on 
       Nov. 4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and
       Deep Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the
       night. As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off
       71. The only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They
       have started a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make
       their base out there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says
       they told him that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park
       officials can't make them leave. These Deep Green people worry me.
       When my Occupy people refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\",
       that bothers me, because these Occupy people will tolerate just about
       anything.

       I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
       complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and
       ear open for anything they may plan for the complex.

       Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
       document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
       Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
       Americans.

       http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

       So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is
       focused on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be
       the ultimate outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-17 14:51:22",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1984023_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
1996531,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged \"Anonymous\" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise \"anonymous\"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
","2011-11-10 19:47:39",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/1996531_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2000103,"Re: [alpha] G3* - PAKISTAN/MIL - 19 brigadiers promoted to major
	generals
","   We have a source among these 19 and he is a rising star within the
   hierarchy and is seen as having a really good shot at the top job.

   On 8/10/11 9:53 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

     19 brigadiers promoted to major generals
     http://www.geo.tv/8-10-2011/84810.htm

      Updated at: 1335 PST,  Wednesday, August 10, 2011
     19 brigadiers promoted to major generals RAWALPINDI: The Pakistan Army
     Promotion Board approved the promotion of 19 brigadiers to the rank of
     major general on Wednesday, Geo News reported.

     The decision was made at the promotion board meeting held at the General
     Headquarters in Rawalpindi chaired by Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq
     Pervez Kayani. All corps commanders, principal staff officers and senior
     army officials were also present in the meeting.

     The names of 19 brigadiers who were promoted to major general include:
     Umar Durrani, Ahmed Mahmood, Tariq Masood, Tahir Javed, Nazir Butt,
     Mazhar Saleem, Mohammad Jaffar, Najamul Hasan, Ghulam Qamar, Ali Abbas,
     Amir Riaz, Abid Rafeeq, Asif Khatak, Jameel Rehmat, Saleem Raza, Malik
     Abbas, Syed Badshah Hussain, Shahab Naqvi and M. Junaid.

     19 brigadiers promoted to major generals
     Published: August 10, 2011

     http://tribune.com.pk/story/228284/19-brigadiers-promoted-to-major-generals/

     RAWALPINDI: The Pakistan Army Promotion Board approved the elevation of
     19 brigadiers to the rank of major general on Wednesday.

     The decision was made at the promotion board meeting held at the General
     Headquarters in Rawalpindi.

     The meeting was headed by Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Pervez
     Kayani and attended by all corps commanders, principal staff officers
     and senior army officials.

     After the two day meeting, the names of 19 brigadiers who will be
     promoted to the rank of major general, were finally approved today.

     19 Brigadier promoted to rank of Major General
     RAWALPINDI - 10th August 2011 (8 hours ago)
     By APP
     http://www.aaj.tv/2011/08/19-brigadiers-promoted-to-major-generals/
     The selection board for promotion of brigadier to the rank of major
     general approved promotions of 19 brigadiers of different arms and
     services of Pakistan Army.

     The decision was made at the promotion board meeting held at the General
     Headquarters in Rawalpindi.

     The meeting was headed by Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Pervez
     Kayani and attended by all corps commanders, principal staff officers
     and senior army officials.

     According to well-placed sources here on Wednesday, those officers who
     have been promoted include, Brig Umar Durrani, Brig. Ahmed Mehmood, Brig
     Tariq Masood, Brig. Tahir Javed, Brig. Nazir Butt, Brig. Mazhar Saleem,
     Brig. Muhammad Jafar, Brig. Najam ul Hassan, Brig. Ghulam Qamar, Brig.
     Ali Abbas, Brig. Aamir Riaz, Brig. Abid Rafique, Brig Asif Khattak,
     Brig. Jamil Rehmat Vance, Brig. Ali Raza, Brig. Malik Abbas, Brig. Syed
     Badshah Hussain, Brig. Shahab Naqvi and Brig. M. Junaid.

         19 brigadiers promoted to major generals
     http://www.pakwatan.com/latest_news1.php?id=2744
     10/08/11  RAWALPINDI -The Pakistan Army Promotion Board approved the
     elevation of 19 brigadiers to the rank of major general on Wednesday.

     The decision was made at the promotion board meeting held at the General
     Headquarters in Rawalpindi.

     The meeting was headed by Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Pervez
     Kayani and attended by all corps commanders, principal staff officers
     and senior army officials.

     After the two day meeting, the names of 19 brigadiers who will be
     promoted to the rank of major general, were finally approved today.

     19 brigadiers who promoted to the rank of major general are Umar
     Durrani, Tariq Masood, Ahmed Mahmood, Tahir jawed, Nazir Batt, Mazhar
     Saleem, Amir Riaz, Najam ul Hassan, Muhammad Jafar, Ali Abbas, Malik
     Abbas, Malik Badshah Hussain, Shahab Naqvi, M. Junaid, Ghulam Qamar,
     Abid Rafiq, Asif Khatak, Saleem Raza and Jameel Rehmat.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
","2011-08-10 23:06:21",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2000103_re-alpha-g3-pakistan-mil-19-brigadiers-promoted-to-major.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2009805,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
","   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marc Lanthemann\" <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-14 20:55:23",1,"2012-02-28 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2009805_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2034823,"take 2
","Cara Sra. Allison,
 
percebi agora que dia 03.07 é sabado e os demais setores da Embaixada do
Brasil não estarem funcionando, exceto o setor de segurança das
instalações físicas. 
Caso não haja problema poderemos nos encontrar na Adidância Policial na
segunda-feira seguinte, dia 05.07.2010 às 1000 hs. 
Se porventura a senhora não puder comparecer no dia 05.07, por mim não
haveria problema em, excepcionalmente, atendê-la no dia 03.07 às 10:00
hs porquanto, inobstante as instalações da Adidância Policial serem
parte integrante da estrutura da  Embaixada do Brasil, possuem entrada
independente e autônoma e como moro praticamente ao lado da Embaixada
não me causaria nenhum problema.
 
Qualquer outra necessidade é só me contatar. 
 
Atenciosamente, 
 
Antonio Celso dos Santos
","2010-06-21 15:49:30",1,"2012-03-26 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2034823_take-2-.html","allison.fedirka@stratfor.com","","paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com",""
2036208,"[alpha] Body bound for Dover, DE on CIA plane
","","2011-05-02 05:51:12",1,"2012-03-06 17:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2036208_-alpha-body-bound-for-dover-de-on-cia-plane-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2038816,"[latam] BRAZIL - COUNTRY BRIEF PM
","   BRAZIL

    

   ECONOMY

   Consumer prices in Brazil are under control despite a recent uptick, and
   the inflation pressure from food prices will ease next year as those costs
   drop, the country's finance minister, Guido Mantega, said on Thursday.

   http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0222461620101202

    

    

   ENERGY

   Brazila**s Senate plans to reduce the amount of time that mining companies
   have to explore minerals deposits in a bid to accelerate fertilizer
   production, Senator Edison Lobao said in an interview.

   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-02/brazil-senate-plans-to-cut-time-to-explore-deposits-lobao-says.html

    

   Brazilian miner Vale (VALE5.SA: Quote), the world's largest iron ore
   producer, on Thursday inaugurated a $140 million copper project in Chile,
   part of the company's efforts to diversify away from the iron business.

   http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFN0220413420101202

    

    

    

   MILITARY

   Brazil has deployed a 1,500-strong security force to patrol borders with
   Paraguay and Bolivia to curb the smuggling of weapons and drugs by
   organized crime, O Estado de S. Paulo reported.

   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-02/brazil-reinforces-borders-with-paraguay-bolivia-estado-says.html

    

    

               Brazil prices under control, food to drop-Mantega

   http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0222461620101202

    

   BRASILIA, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Consumer prices in Brazil are under control
   despite a recent uptick, and the inflation pressure from food prices will
   ease next year as those costs drop, the country's finance minister, Guido
   Mantega, said on Thursday.

   \"Inflation is under control, it's not going to go outside the target and
   the government will do what's necessary to keep it that way,\" he said.

   Brazil's inflation target for this year and next is 4.5 percent, plus or
   minus 2 percentage points.

   The central bank uses that target as a guide in setting its benchmark
   interest rate, the Selic. Policymakers will meet Wednesday, Dec. 8, to
   consider changing the rate from its current 10.75 percent -- one of the
   highest in the world.

   \"If you look at the IPCA (price index) and take out food and fuel,
   inflation is below 5 percent,\" he said.

   Food and fuel costs tend to be among the most volatile, making it harder
   to identify trends.

   \"We don't have to worry about this because there will be a drop in food
   prices next year,\" Mantega said, adding that wholesale prices for some
   food items have already signaled lower retail prices to come.

   Brazil's inflation rate has spiked recently, reaching 5.47 percent in the
   12 months through mid-November, and investors have recently more
   aggressively priced in interest rate hikes in coming months.

   Paulo Gregoire
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com

                                        

                                        

        Brazil Senate Plans to Cut Time to Explore Deposits, Lobao Says

   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-02/brazil-senate-plans-to-cut-time-to-explore-deposits-lobao-says.html

   Dec 3, 2010 2:28 AM GMT+0900

    

   Brazila**s Senate plans to reduce the amount of time that mining companies
   have to explore minerals deposits in a bid to accelerate fertilizer
   production, Senator Edison Lobao said in an interview.

   Lawmakers will propose limiting the period on exploration contracts to as
   few as 20 years, said Lobao, 73, the former energy minister who said he
   will probably return to the post on Jan. 1. Brazilian President Luiz
   Inacio Lula da Silvaa**s administration is preparing proposed mining
   legislation that includes a 35-year deadline.

   a**We want to set rigid time limits to force companies to explore instead
   of speculate,a** Lobao said yesterday in an interview in Brasilia.

   The legislation, which Lula will likely send to congress for approval this
   year, is part of a plan to help Brazil reach self-sufficiency in
   fertilizer output within 10 years, Lobao said. The stricter time limit
   would be in line with countries such as Australia, the worlda**s biggest
   supplier of seaborne iron ore, which also grants 20 years to explore
   deposits, he said.

   Lobao said yesterday he may be named Mines and Energy Minister by
   President-elect Dilma Rousseff, who takes office on Jan. 1. Lobao stepped
   down in March to seek re-election as senator for the northeastern state of
   Maranhao.

   To contact the reporter on this story: Katia Cortes in Brasilia Newsroom
   at kcortes@bloomberg.net

   Paulo Gregoire
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com

                                        

              Brazil iron giant Vale diversifies with Chile copper

   http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFN0220413420101202

    

   SALAMANCA, Chile  Dec 2 (Reuters) - Brazilian miner Vale (VALE5.SA:
   Quote), the world's largest iron ore producer, on Thursday inaugurated a
   $140 million copper project in Chile, part of the company's efforts to
   diversify away from the iron business.

   The Tres Valles operation, Vale's first project in Chile, includes two
   mines and a processing plant with capacity to produce 18,500 tonnes of
   copper cathodes per year, equivalent to 0.34 percent of world No.1
   producer Chile's annual output.

   The new project highlights Vale's drive to increase its copper business.
   The company expects to produce 332,000 tonnes of copper in 2011 and then
   more than double it to 691,000 tonnes in 2015.

   Vale has copper production in Brazil and in Canada. It is developing a
   joint venture copper mine with Africa Rainbow Minerals in Zambia with an
   estimated production capacity of 45,000 tonnes per year.

   Copper represented less than 3 percent of Vale's revenues in the third
   quarter of 2010, compared with around 60 percent for iron ore in the same
   period, according to the company's earnings statement for that period.

   Vale has identified copper and fertilizers as key areas of expansion for
   the company. (Reporting by Brian Ellsworth; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

   Paulo Gregoire
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com

                                        

                                        

         Brazil Reinforces Borders With Paraguay, Bolivia, Estado Says

   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-02/brazil-reinforces-borders-with-paraguay-bolivia-estado-says.html

   Dec 2, 2010 10:56 PM GMT+0900

   Brazil has deployed a 1,500-strong security force to patrol borders with
   Paraguay and Bolivia to curb the smuggling of weapons and drugs by
   organized crime, O Estado de S. Paulo reported.

   More than 80 percent of the arms and drugs smuggled into Brazil enter the
   country through those borders, the Sao Paulo- based newspaper reported,
   citing Brazila**s Federal Police.

   The Federal Police has coordinated an operation to reinforce border
   security since March, Estado said.

   To contact the reporter on this story: Juan Pablo Spinetto in Rio de
   Janeiro at o jspinetto@bloomberg.net

   Paulo Gregoire
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com

    

   Paulo Gregoire
   STRATFOR
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-02 21:57:46",1,"2012-08-02 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2038816_-latam-brazil-country-brief-pm-.html","paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com","mailto:latam@stratfor.com","rbaker@stratfor.com,latam@stratfor.com",""
2046029,"INSIGHT - PARAGUAY/US/MIL - New Horizon mil, devo program
","   CODE: PY 505
   ATTRIBUTION: Paraguay military   
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: officer
   PUBLICATION: n/a
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B-
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 6
   DISTRIBUTION: Latam
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Allison

    
   Followed up (phone) with a source as per Reva's request.  I basically
   asked him how he interprets the US ambassador's comments about the New
   Horizon military and how seriously Paraguay would consider and view such
   cooperation....

   He first explained that Lugo is the first left Pres Paraguay has had in
   recent history and that he's more center-left as opposed to extreme left. 
   Source believes that Lugo needed to follow along with these center-left
   ideas/beliefs at the beginning of his term; source used being wary of the
   States as an example.  Source believes this is one of the reasons why Lugo
   became more vocal/assertive towards Brazil (ex, Itaipu) upon taking
   office.  Source clarified that Paraguay will never dream of confronting
   Brazil and understands well its subordinate role.  At the same time
   Paraguay also has a healthy fear of Brazil's potential for domination and
   doesn't like seeing Brasilia getting to involved and powerful in Paraguay
   (when I refer to powerful inside Paraguay I mean local level, cultural
   things such as Brasiguayos and Brazilian business, etc). Source said that
   now Lugo's approaching the half way point of his term, he is not afraid to
   make changes w/i the govt to help direct the course he wants to follow.

   Source said that the key to understanding this potentially renewed
   military cooperation is the nature of the cooperation.  New Horizon is a
   humanitarian, development program in which the US military would go in to
   areas where the Paraguayan government is absent and help the communities
   develop and increase their standard of living.  Source said that the
   Paraguayan govt is now realizing that the results of the New Horizon
   program would be good things and that cooperating on this front would
   result in more benefits for Paraguay than losses. Source also reminded me
   that one of Lugo's promises/goals for his Presidency was to reach out to
   the poor communities and increase development. (side note - this also goes
   along with what I heard when in Paraguay.  The Armed Forces were just
   finishing up the field portion of a study that evaluated the rural, poor
   areas of the country with the goal of identifying their needs and
   developing govt programs or other courses of action to address these
   needs).

   I asked him if the presence of US military would offend Paraguay's
   military.  He said that no, he did not believe this would be something
   that would cause an all out ruckus in the Paraguayan military and that
   things should be pretty cool given the humanitarian, social nature of the
   project.  I then asked why the US, why not ask Brazil for this help in
   this area?  He laughed out loud with his first reaction being ' you're a
   bright girl, figure it out'.  And then implied that having the US around
   was not a bad thing in terms of balancing out countries giving help to
   Paraguay.

   He also mentioned that within the Paraguayan military there exists a group
   that is very pro-Brazil; there are also those that are anti-Brazil.  Also,
   when he was serving officially in Brazil, he said the amount of respect
   and 'ceremonia' that they always demonstrated for him was remarkably high.
","2010-09-23 21:14:42",1,"2012-03-13 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2046029_insight-paraguay-us-mil-new-horizon-mil-devo-program-.html","michael.wilson@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com,latam@stratfor.com",""
2046719,"INSIGHT - BRAZIL - national security, terrorism, drugs, Argentina,
	etc.
","175","2011-01-06 17:03:56",1,"2012-03-26 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2046719_insight-brazil-national-security-terrorism-drugs-argentina.html","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com","attach/14/14831_msg-21780-26253.jpg
attach/14/14832_msg-21780-26252.jpg"
2055777,"sorrisa do dia (para mim)
"," hehe, look at how he spelled my name.  Soooo cute!  At least he didn't
think I was a man like some other dude that wrote to us.  Bummer I won't
be going back.  Getting along with Brazil Fed Police dude seems like it
would be super useful. 


On 10/14/2010 5:42 PM, ANTONIO CELSO DOS SANTOS wrote:
> Cara Allisson,
>  
> muito obrigado pelas informações. Vou ler com calma e depois lhe respondo.
>  
> É uma pena que você não possa nos visitar antes do fim do ano.
>  
> Entre os dias 08 a 12/11/2010 estarei viajando para Brasília para um
> curso.
>  
> Depois estarei viajando de férias a partir do dia 31 de dezembro para
> o Brasil. Só voltarei no dia 20 de janeiro de 2011. Porém, sempre
> estarei verificando meu email. 
>  
> Quando quiser pode me mandar notícias suas que gosto muito de
> conversar com você.
>  
> grande abraço, 
>  
> Antonio Celso dos Santos  
>  
","2010-10-15 17:13:22",1,"2012-03-26 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2055777_sorrisa-do-dia-para-mim-.html","allison.fedirka@stratfor.com","","paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com",""
2088038,"[OS] AFGHANISTAN/NEW ZEALAND/MIL - Two in three New Zealanders want
 special forces out of Afghanistan: poll
","   all 38 of them, what blow that would be. [clint]

   Two in three New Zealanders want special forces out of Afghanistan: poll
   English.news.cn   2011-08-01 06:31:42     FeedbackPrintRSS
   http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-08/01/c_131021523.htm

   WELLINGTON, Aug. 1 (Xinhua) -- Nearly two thirds of New Zealanders want
   the country's special forces to come home after they finish their current
   tour of duty in Afghanistan, a poll revealed Monday.

   The New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll survey found 63.3 percent of respondents
   wanted the country's Special Air Service forces out of Afghanistan, while
   23.1 percent thought they should remain beyond March next year, while the
   rest said they did not know.

   The 38 SAS troops are based in Kabul and have been training and mentoring
   the Afghan Crisis Response Unit, which responds to incidents including
   terrorist attacks.

   Last month the New Zealand SAS intervened in a three-hour gunfight with
   Taliban fighters who attacked the home of Jan Mohammed Khan, a close
   adviser to President Hamid Karzai, and in June, they helped fight off an
   attack at the Inter-Continental Hotel in Kabul.

   New Zealand Prime Minister John Key has said that the force needed to come
   home to \"regroup\" and spend time in New Zealand, but a spokesman for Key
   told the New Zealand Herald only that Key' s \"expectation\" was they would
   return in March, the newspaper reported Monday.

   Key has also said that some members of the SAS had wanted to stay on in
   Afghanistan beyond March.

   New Zealand's opposition Labour and Green parties have called for the SAS
   troops to return, saying they are helping a regime that had lost the
   confidence of the Afghan people.

   Other New Zealand forces are serving as a provincial reconstruction team
   in Afghanistan's Bamiyan province, and will be gradually withdrawn by
   2014.

   The New Zealand SAS Group, formed in 1955, is an elite combat unit of the
   New Zealand Defence Force tasked with counter- terrorism and difficult
   overseas operations.

 --
 Clint Richards
 Strategic Forecasting Inc.
 clint.richards@stratfor.com
 c: 254-493-5316
","2011-08-01 03:27:36",1,"2012-07-30 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2088038_-os-afghanistan-new-zealand-mil-two-in-three-new-zealanders.html","clint.richards@stratfor.com","mailto:os@stratfor.com","os@stratfor.com",""
2091414,"Re: [latam] BRAZIL/PARAGUAY/CT - Brazil and Paraguay declare war on
 drugs along their border
","   One concrete move Brazil said it will do is invest $35 mln to reinforce
   border police and 11 bases, 2 of which are adjacent to the Paraguayan
   border in Matto Grosso and Parana.  This also looks like it will transfer
   into some political cooperation as well.  3 suspected EPP
   members/sympathizers are hiding out in Brazil.  Previously Brazil denied
   Prgy extradition requests.  Prgy then filed a caseagainst Brazil at the
   UN.  Yesterday Lula said that, since new information has been sent, will
   reconsider sending the 3 back to Prgy.

   Prgy has domestic stability to win from this.  Lots of Brazilian gangs,
   drug dealers are believed to be operating in Northern Prgy.  Stopping them
   at borders will help Brazil as well. And there is the presence of
   Brasiguayos in Prgy.  Brazil has interests in keeping those people safe
   (esp since Brazilian money is the be source of investment for soy and
   farming in Prgy).  Not sure how add border control, especially in Parana,
   will affect illegal business practices done by Brasiguayos.  It's been
   reported that some will smuggle there good grown in Prgy back over to
   Brazil to be sold there.

            Brasil y Paraguay declaran la guerra al narco fronterizo

     Los presidentes de Brasil, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, y de Paraguay,
     Fernando Lugo, acordaron iniciar de inmediato una guerra sin cuartel
     contra el narco en la zona fronteriza.

     Ambos mandatarios tras reunirse el lunes en la localidad limitrofe
     brasilena de Ponta Pora, estimaron necesario acordar medidas conjuntas
     para impulsar la cooperacion bilateral y combatir la violencia del
     narcotrafico en la frontera que comparten ambos paises.

     \"Ante la ilegalidad del crimen y el trafico de drogas nos hemos unidos
     para tomar las medidas. Hemos dado un paso al frente en esa direccion de
     definir los mecanismos a seguir, planteados bajo un clima de dialogo
     maduro y equilibrado\" , explico el presidente brasileno, de acuerdo al
     portal Telsur.

     \"Los narcotraficantes se metieron con los gobiernos de Brasil y
     Paraguay. Ahora vamos a enfrentarlos\" ,agrego. En los ultimos meses los
     pistoleros al servicio sel crimen organizado en desatado varias batallas
     en contra de las autoridades de ambos paises.

 --
 Alex Posey
 Tactical Analyst
 STRATFOR
 alex.posey@stratfor.com
","2010-05-04 18:07:07",1,"2012-03-13 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2091414_re-latam-brazil-paraguay-ct-brazil-and-paraguay-declare-war.html","allison.fedirka@stratfor.com","mailto:latam@stratfor.com","latam@stratfor.com",""
2163407,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
","   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-17 14:01:00",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2163407_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2178592,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged \"Anonymous\" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise \"anonymous\"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
","2011-11-10 19:47:39",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2178592_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2197980,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
","   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-17 14:01:00",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2197980_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2237322,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-11 13:59:34",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2237322_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2237366,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
","   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart <stewart@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>; Korena Zucha<zucha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>, Alpha List
   <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
","2011-11-18 21:17:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2237366_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2241596,"Re: DISCUSSION - TURKEY/SYRIA - the military buffer zone
","   this is what the Turkish diplo source said - Turkey will send troops
   across the border, ostensibly in order to safeguard its territory against
   PKK attacks, and will use the terms of the agreement reached between
   Turkey and Syria in 1998, which allows the Turkish army to penetrate a few
   kilometers inside Syria to defend against PKK attacks. Turkey has been
   asking for an Arab endorsement to commit itself more actively in Syrian
   affairs.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Nathan Hughes\" <hughes@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 15, 2011 4:25:23 PM
   Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - TURKEY/SYRIA - the military buffer zone

   I'm no longer clear on what we're talking about.

   Turkey is dropping hints about exercising an existing hot pursuit clause,
   right?

   Can someone please lay out the specifics of what they're saying? What
   exactly did Turkey hint at specifically and where did we get 'buffer
   zone'?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Omar Lamrani\" <omar.lamrani@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 15, 2011 4:13:38 PM
   Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - TURKEY/SYRIA - the military buffer zone

   yes, it's a hot pursuit clause

   but, the idea is that Turkey is contemplating using that hot pursuit
   clause to justify sending and keeping troops on the other side of the
   border. that would deifnitely be stretching the rules, and would require
   Turkey responding to (or perhaps inventing) a Kurdish militant threat in
   that area that would legally justify such intervention.

   but if Turkey were willing to absorb the risk of entering Syrian territory
   and establishing a buffer zone, essentially as an act of war, then why go
   through the trouble of bringing up this 1998 agreement to begin with when
   Syria is going to see through it

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Omar Lamrani\" <omar.lamrani@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Cc: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, November 15, 2011 4:06:41 PM
   Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - TURKEY/SYRIA - the military buffer zone

   I looked through the links and this is what I found for the Adana
   Agreement:

   First Link - The right for Turkey to pursue terrorists (PKK) up to 15km
   into Syria.
   Second Link - The right for Turkey to pursue terrorists (PKK) up to 5km
   into Syria.
   Third Link - The agreement allows the Turkish Army to penetrate some
   distance into Syria in case it feels threatens by PKK operations.
   Fourth Link - The right for Turkey to pursue terrorists (PKK) up to 15km
   into Syria.

   All links do not point to a buffer zone. Instead, the Adana Agreement
   according to the links provided allows for the authorization of
   pursuit/hot pursuit into Syria to a maximum of 15km.
   On 11/15/11 2:23 PM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     A Turkish diplomatic source mentioned a few days ago that a stipulation
     in the 1998 agreement between Turkey and Syria would allow TUrkish
     troops to enter a few kms into Syrian territory. We searched the public
     text of that agreement and didn't find anything that resembled a line
     like that, but when I followed up with a source, this is what I found
     out:

     On Oct. 20, 1998 the Syrians and Turks signed the Adana Agreement, a
     secret document that ended the conflict between two countries, and
     transformed their bi-lateral relations from enmity into cooperation.
     According to the terms of the agreement, Syria renounced its claim to
     Hatay and authorized the Turkish army to pursue Kurdish rebels inside
     Syria up to 5 kilometers without seeking the prior permission of the
     Syrian authorities (some sites say the later Hafiz Asad allowed the
     Turkish army to penetrate Syrian territories up to 15 kms, although the
     5kms authorization seems to make more sense.

     This is obviously a major concession that Syria had to make when it was
     legitimately scared that the TUrkish army was going to keep rolling its
     tanks across the border. The terms of the Adana agreement were not made
     public because it was a total Syrian capitulation to the Turkish
     demands. Some describe the agreement as a Turkish-Syrian Camp david
     Accord.

     The following Arabic sites  mention the Adana Agreement and the right it
     gave to the Turkish army to enter Syrian territories.

     http://www.dohainstitute.com/Home/Details?entityID=f0c8e1eb-3c4c-48ec-b0e3-fa1951689963&resourceId=d97c2772-de19-4cd7-ba6b-4acb51ccc031

     http://elsoumoudelcharif.mescops.com/t7928-topic

     http://jordanzad.com/index.php?page=article&id=61494

     http://ejabat.google.com/ejabat/thread?tid=479cefea07705c0d

     I still don't think Turkey is close to establishing this military buffer
     zone, but we're taking a serious look at how they would go about it if
     they did do it.  Tactical team is mapping out the terrain, roads, ets.
     in this area.

     A few things to keep in mind:

     As Omar pointed out, even if there is this stipulation in a secret 1998
     agreement, i doubt Syria would respect it if Turkey is using it to send
     troops into Turkish territory and has publicized its interest in
     toppling the regime. It would likely be regarded by Syria (and Iran, by
     extension) as an invasion and thus an act of war. That means TUrkey
     would not only be facing the SYrian army, but also could bear the brunt
     of militant proxy attacks (think Hezbollah, PKK possibly, etc.)

     A Turkish military buffer zone in the north doesn't do shit for the
     areas where the SUnni oppoisiton is concentrated and getting beat. the
     natural escape route for Homs and Hama is southward toward LEbanon
     (where Syria has a lot of leverage.)  In the north, you have the Kurdish
     areas (Qamishli is the main city) and you have the important city of
     Aleppo, where Syria has concentrated a lot of forces.

     Remember Turkey's main interest when it comes to Syria. They're not
     looking ot march on Damascus for kicks. They are most concerned with the
     spread of Kurdish separartism/militancy. So far, the Kurds in Syria have
     been relatively calm (we had insight on this recently on how KRG is also
     advising the SYrian Kurds to not push it.)  So the Kurdish threat has
     not risen to the level yet for TUrkey to intervene.

     But --

     Turkey wants to show it's capable of doing something.  I am still going
     to argue that establishing a military buffer zone and risking war with
     Syria (and proxy war with Iran) is not worth it in Turkey's eyes.

     But --

     If Turkey has  legit reason to believe Syria and Iran are playing the
     PKK card, things could shift. That's what i think we need to be watching
     for closely.

 --
 Omar Lamrani
 ADP
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 www.STARTFOR.com
","2011-11-15 23:34:47",1,"2012-03-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2241596_re-discussion-turkey-syria-the-military-buffer-zone-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
2258811,"[alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA/AZ/US/VZ/RUSSIA/TAIWAN - Erdogan's
 cancer, Turkish plan for Syria and more - TR325
","   SOURCE: TR325 and his business partner
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former NSC official in Turkey, adviser to Erdogan,
   energy expert negotiator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   TR325's business partner has an old classmate friend who was the lead
   surgeon on Erdogan's most recent operation. He said that Erdogan has colon
   cancer, but they haven't seen the second biopsy results yet to see if it's
   metastasized. In the last operation, they cut out 20 cm of Erdogan's colon
   (I just looked up that the average colon is about 1.5m long.)  That's a
   really significant operation. Erdogan is not going to be able to travel
   for a while, and he's going to have to carry around with him a colonoscopy
   bag for at least 2-3 months.  The prognosis is not looking good, though.
   The surgeon said they were estimating 2 years for him.

   This is very likely going to cause major splits within the AKP.  Gul
   doesn't have much support.  Davutoglu is paranoid that everyone else is
   trying to undermine him (there's a definite competition between him and
   TR325.)  When I asked who Erdgogan trusts, two names were mentioned - Ali
   Babacan (Deputy PM) and Taner Yildiz (energy minister.)  Both sources were
   asking how the US is likely to react to this situation.  Would they try to
   back the military like the old days?  CHP is still very much divided. Both
   seemed to think the military won't be able to take advantage of the
   situation.

   On Syria - the conversation centered on how far Turkey is actually going
   to go.  TR325 explained that the Turkish plan is centered on civil war in
   Syria.  Officially, it's Turkey providing the main training,a rms and
   support to FSA. Unofficially, US and TUrkey are doing this together in
   deploying SOF for this mission.  Notice all the talk in the press now
   about civil war breaking out in Syria. This is the narrative Turkey and US
   want to build.  I pointed out that creating the conditions for civil war -
   actual neighborhood to neighborhood fighting - is still pretty difficult
   considering that the Alawite forces are still holding together, but he
   seemed to think that this can escalate within 2 months time. He also said
   without saying that they're working on making that happen. He acknowledges
   it'll be messy and it will take a lot of blood and time for a Sunni power
   to emerge in syria, but that this is the Turkish obligation.

   The Turkish plan to preempt the instability that would result from civil
   war conditions is to implement the buffer zone 5-40km into Syrian
   territory and set up refugee camps.  I asked what levers Iran and Syria
   have to get Turkey to back off in relation to PKK.  He said
   (half-jokingly) that Karilan is Turkey's man (ie. turkey can actually
   negotiate with him.)  But he said PKK third-in-command (still need to get
   this guy's name) answers to Syria and Iran. Turkey knows this very well
   and he says Syria and Iran are already making moves to threaten attacks
   via this faction.

   I'm left with a lot of questions --

   Given the instability that is likely to result within AKP over Erdogan's
   health, would Turkey really be making bold foreign policy moves, such as
   helping to create a civil war in Syria?

   Turkey appears very confident that Syria/Iran have the means to play the
   PKK card. Why risk that?

   Turkey knows they'll be dealing with a massive refugee crisis in Syria -
   why propel that situation?

   Some other points -

   TR325 believes AZ wiill be able to export 5-7bcm via ITGI for SDII. 
   Russia has its stake in Edison to keep a foothold in that route.  The rest
   he agrees is likely going to have to be shipped to Russia eventually since
   the Europeans aren't financing anything right now. He did say that SOCAR
   is flush with money right now and could actually put money down on these
   projects if they have the market demand and client base to do it.

   They were both asking me what is happening with Trinidad and Tobago. I
   told them I have no idea. They were asking because they are involved in a
   business deal to sell conventional subs to Trinidad and Tobago. They're
   assuming the US is preparing something for VZ.  They are also involved in
   similar submarine sales to Taiwan and Japan.
","2011-12-10 20:04:53",1,"2012-03-06 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2258811_-alpha-insight-turkey-syria-az-us-vz-russia-taiwan-erdogan-s.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2272858,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
","   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-17 14:01:00",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2272858_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2283472,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
","   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marc Lanthemann\" <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-14 20:55:23",1,"2012-02-28 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2283472_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2287011,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
","   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart <stewart@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>; Korena Zucha<zucha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>, Alpha List
   <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
","2011-11-18 21:17:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2287011_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2312421,"Re: Fwd: Labor Day Review of Where We Are
","   hey. thanks. yeah... i read this. kind of amazing. i fully intend to stage
   a hostile takeover over of the board with james brown after morenz gets
   tased by fred in a dark stairwell.

   but... really, thanks for looking out for us. i can say without feeling
   like a suckup that i'm glad to be here regardless of pay, even if my
   mother-in-law called me \"an unpaid apprentice.\"

   kindest regards,
   phillip d. orchard

   word apprentice
   geography enthusiast
   keynesian
   canadian
   university of texas at austin bachelors of science of journalism of class
   of 2005
   rose bowl sideline stander
   hemophiliac
   512.574.6964

   On 9/6/11 7:41 PM, Brad Foster wrote:

     Hey you two, don't know if you saw this, but potentially, this is good
     news for you. Our CEO is basically saying we need to hire more people,
     including in the publishing side (the side you're on). Look at the parts
     I highlighted below. I know ya'll want a job, and although there are
     never any guarantees, it is looking pretty good for yall if you work
     hard as an intern this semester and make good friends with Maverick and
     Jenna (which is pretty damn easy, just be a nice, fun person and a
     diligent worker.) I am not the smartest cat in the sandbox, but I showed
     up as an intern everyday and showed eagerness to learn and to work, and
     I got rewarded for it. Just don't want ya'll to be discouraged by the
     lack of pay (my offer to take yall interns out for lunch sometime still
     stands, you deserve more appreciation) at the moment, even though it's
     annoying. Everyone started where you were at at some point. That is how
     the process works.
     *I never sent you this email. Don't mention it*
     BTW, heres the long version of my signature for your entertainment:
     Brad Foster
     Africa Monitor
     Operations Center Officer
     Writer
     STRATFOR
     512.944.4909

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"George Friedman\" <gfriedman@stratfor.com>
     To: \"allstratfor\" <allstratfor@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Monday, September 5, 2011 2:55:16 PM
     Subject: Labor Day Review of Where We Are

     THIS IS FOR INTERNAL STRATFOR USE ONLY. DO NOT SHARE THIS DOCUMENT OR
     DISCUSS IT OUTSIDE OF STRATFOR.

      

      

      

     I hope you've all had a great Labor Day Weekend. This Labor Day marks a
     turning point in Stratfor's history, and I wanted to share my thoughts
     with you and some plans. It used to be, not so long ago, that we were so
     small that information flowed to all hands by itself.  It is hard for me
     to recognize sometimes that this is no longer true, so I will provide an
     extensive review of where we are and what is coming.  Some of this will
     be old hat to some of you; some of this will be new.  This is an attempt
     to start getting everyone on the same page. 

      

     Historically, Stratfor was unique in a number of ways. First, we
     accepted no advertising. Second, we charged for our subscriptions.
     Finally, we were revenue driven. We build the company from our
     revenues.  This kept us independent, it kept us free to experiment-and
     at times fail, it kept us tight. We were reaching a point where we our
     revenues did not keep up with our needs and market opportunities.

      

     Shea Morenz provided us with two opportunities.  First, he made an
     investment in Stratfor designed to give us the capital needed to build
     our staff and our marketing.  Second, he proposed a new venture,
     StratCap, which would allow us to utilize the intelligence we were
     gathering about the world in a new but related venue-an investment fund.
     Where we had previously advised other hedge funds. We would now have our
     own, itself fully funded by Shea.  Shea invested over $2 million in
     Stratfor and more in StratCap. In return he took a seat on Stratfor's
     board and a minority position in Stratfor, whose control remains in
     Don's and my hands.  It was a good deal for Stratfor, a good deal for
     StratCap, and since the deal closed officially on August 1, we now have
     the task of doing what we all want-building Stratfor and StratCap.

      

     Our cash position is not spectacular by any means, but we have the
     resources to build the kind of company we want, when that investment is
     combined with our revenues.  With cash under control we need to address
     the next problem-people. We all are doing more than our share to keep
     things going.  In some ways that good but it can be overdone, and we are
     overdoing it throughout the company.  Our job now is to expand the
     team.  Money is one element of that, but relieving the pressure we are
     under in a way increases the pressure, because we have to recruit and
     train new people. So it gets harder before it gets easier, and that's
     the point we are at.

      

     Let's divide our departments into two groups.  There are those
     departments that must train their own people, particularly in
     intelligence beyond the normal training needed by new employees.  We do
     that because no one thinks of the world like Stratfor, and that means
     that we can't hire people from other organizations, or at least not
     without a major training programming, which in our experience lasts up
     to two years.  Then there are departments that don't have this burden
     and that can hire people readily from other organizations.  Both groups
     of departments must grow and train, but the burden of training is much
     heavier in the Intelligence departments that train their staff from the
     bottom up than on other departments.  It is important for everyone to
     understand this distinction.  It is not that people in Intelligence are
     more important or more valuable than those in other departments.  It
     just means they face different problems in growing and that if they
     don't grow, other things can't happen.

      

     Now let's consider the tasks ahead.  First and foremost-and always first
     and foremost-we must be the world's leading private intelligence
     organization (and one of the finest intelligence organizations, period)
     and we must sell our intelligence through publishing.  Our current staff
     has done an outstanding job, but they are thin and sometimes we are
     weak.  We must do better in economics, and we must make certain that no
     AOR depends on only one person. There are lots of things that are
     needed. 

      

     Second, we are committed to supporting StratCap, a private fund that
     will begin operations some time this coming spring. What StratCap will
     do is use our Stratfor's intelligence and analysis to trade in a range
     of geopolitical instruments, particularly government bonds, currency and
     the like in the world's emerging markets.  Shea Morenz initiated this
     idea and leads it.  At the root of StratCap is a simple idea: Stratfor
     should put its money where its mouth is.  It does not conflict with
     Stratfor, but is an extension of it.

      

     Do not think of StratCap as an outside organization.  It will be
     integral to Stratfor, in the sense that much of the intelligence we are
     developing is useful to Stratcap as well as Stratfor.  The
     organizational and legal distinctions are real and important, but
     StratCap is linked to Stratfor intellectually and contractually.  It
     will be useful to you if, for the sake of convenience, you think of it
     as another aspect of Stratfor and Shea as another executive in
     Stratfor. 

      

     Let me also add that it is our commitment that all our team will benefit
     if StratCap is successful through some mechanism to be defined. This
     isn't an attempt to get you to work harder for the same money.  But that
     discussion must wait until the legal and administrative relationships of
     StratCap and its relation to Stratfor are worked out and reviewed by
     something called \"compliance officers,\" people who make certain that we
     do not violate any regulations. 

      

     From that point of view, StratCap is something under construction.  You
     can see Shea Morenz hammering away building it in the corner office he
     took from Darryl. In the world of StratCap, corner offices are marketing
     tools.  This points to the fact that StratCap will be building its own
     staff and they come from a different world from Stratfor with a
     different culture.  That said, we have a great deal to learn from
     StratCap to strengthen Stratfor's understanding of economics and it has
     much to learn from us.  We are already working on mock portfolios and
     trades, testing our skills.  Kendra, Korena, Melissa, Jen, Peter,
     Meredith and myself are all involved in this along with Shea and
     Alfredo, a trader that makes us easy to understand compared to him. It's
     going pretty well in fact, but supporting StratCap will be a cultural
     and intellectual challenge.  It's important now to recognize that it is
     already here, growing and we will accommodate to it and it to us.

      

     I want to emphasize is that there is neither a legal, intellectual nor
     moral tension between Stratfor and StratCap.  We will continue to
     publish what we think is true.  StratCap is interested in our broad
     ideas but mostly in the obscure nuggets picked up by intelligence that
     are usually of little interest to our general readers.  My pledge to you
     and our readers is that our publication will remain untouched by
     StratCap-because they are merely different sides of the same coin,
     intelligence.

      

     We have also been asked to help the United States Marine Corps and other
     government intelligence organizations to teach them how Stratfor does
     what it does, and train them in becoming government Stratfors. We are
     beginning this project by preparing a three-year forecast for the
     Commandant of the Corps.  This is a double honor for us.  First, the
     professional intelligence community is acknowledging us as being the
     gold standard of intelligence.  Second, we are being asked to use our
     honest and unhedged views to support what is for Stratfor-an American
     company-its homeland.  Again, as with StratCap, there is no tension. We
     will tell the U.S. government precisely what we tell our readers and we
     think ourselves.  Our first lesson to the government is that
     intelligence organizations exist to make decision makers uncomfortable,
     not to make them feel better about their decisions. I didn't come this
     far to compromise on that. 

      

     Add to this that the fact that Turkish Chamber of Commerce (not its name
     but close enough; its name is TUSIAD) asked us to preside over their
     40th anniversary celebration, and that the Turkish Foreign Minister and
     Energy Minister will speak at the event, and you can see both our global
     recognition and our commitment to speak the same words to every country.
     We can serve the world from the same platform.

      

     So think about it.  We have three triumphs.  First, our publication is
     now read by almost 300,000 people (counting our corporate accounts).  We
     are a major force around the world.  Second, Shea-a guy who has played
     with the big boys at Goldman Sachs, asked us to play in the majors with
     him.  Third, the USMC has asked for our help, and with them others in
     the defense community.  These are three validations of us that are
     precious to me.

      

     Obviously, there is no way in the world that we can do all these
     things-plus the endless little projects that we must do all the
     time-with the staff we have.  And given that we take two years to train
     new analysts, and all of this is on us now-we have an urgent problem. 
     We can't punt opportunities at hand and continue at our current size.
     Nor can we easily expand.  So we will therefore expand with difficulty. 
     There is no choice.  Our Analyst Development Program is the means where
     we train people and find new analysts as well as find some staff for
     publishing (watch officers, monitors, operations center and writers all
     under Jenna Colley). We will have the largest group of ADPs ever this
     fall, starting next week.  About 13 people at last count will be joining
     us.  This is a huge percentage of the number of analysts on staff.
     Ideally all will work out well and our crisis will be over.  That's
     unlikely but our crisis will be mitigated by January 1. Doing this will
     put a huge burden on Intelligence, who must do their work and also train
     these people, but there is no choice.  This is the year when we break
     out.  I promise to work side by side with the team in training and
     growing he organization.  I also promise that if we succeed, we will
     become one of the most significant and prestigious foreign policy
     publications in the world-and those that made it happen will be known. 
     I know there are questions about by-lines. You know my hesitation, but
     we will figure out together someway to make sure that the glory is
     shared.

      

     Intelligence is divided into three parts.  There is Strategic
     Intelligence (under Rodger assisted by Reva) that is organized
     geographically.  There is Tactical Intelligence (under Stick, assisted
     by Nate Hughes) that is organized thematically-organized crime,
     cyber-warfare, military, terrorism, security, financial flows, supply
     chain and so on.  There is then intelligence gathering, under Meredith,
     assisted by Jen Richmond that is building sources from around the
     world.  All of them must grow dramatically.  The first two will grow
     mostly out of the ADP pool. The latter will be done by extensive work in
     the field.  But it is the Writers Group that is making the most
     impressive evolution.  Under Jenna (and Tim French and Maverick) it has
     moved into the heart of intelligence, writing as well as editing. 
     Everyone should watch this team. They are pioneering things the world
     hasn't seen yet. Along with Watch Officers, monitors and the operations
     center, this unit is translating intelligence into product with
     increasing effectiveness.  It is now organizationally mature and ready
     to both grow and sustain the growth of Intelligence.

      

     This growth will put a tremendous strain on other departments. Leticia
     has done a tremendous job in Human Resources, but the job has grown much
     greater than she can possibly manage.  Just the process of getting visas
     for new ADPs is overwhelming, and at least half of these come from other
     countries.  We have selected an HR consulting firm to support her in the
     coming months and other solutions will be found to sustain this. HR will
     become more effective in the next months. In addition, we are retaining
     a law firm to create a policy for Stratfor on Foreign Corrupt Practices
     Act.  I don't plan to do the perp walk and I don't want anyone here
     doing it either.  We need some clear guidelines on the law and are
     getting them, particularly as we ramp our intelligence capability.
     Similarly finance has kept us all going and similarly it has to expand,
     although it is a shade less pressured than HR is.

      

     IT faces a huge challenge.  Traditional IT organizations focus on the
     development of new capabilities for a company and sustaining complex
     systems. At Stratfor, the focus must also be on sustaining basic systems
     like phones, email, configuring and fixing laptops and cell phones and
     so on-the basic tools that make our work possible and which are a
     particular challenge in a global company operating 24-7.  That gives our
     IT department a different shape and tempo than exists in other
     companies. With this class of ADPs, 24-7 will become very real.  IT is
     under pressure to maintain its focus on improving the web site and
     corporate systems but has a special and intense mission of supporting a
     growing, global company at the ground level, and the pressure is never
     going to be greater than now with all the new people coming on board in
     all departments. Creating an IT department that fits our peculiar needs
     will be Frank's challenge.

      

     I want to also point to two departments that are performing extremely
     well.  Customer Service at Stratfor is among the best in the business. 
     We daily get emails praising their work. John Gibbons has done an
     amazing job keeping this going.  More subscribers mean more customer
     service of course.

      

     Also to be mentioned is he on-line marketing team who has just done
     something very impressive. There is usually a slump in subscriptions
     after a Red Alert, and there was one, but in a matter of weeks they
     pitched in and turned it around with some strange and wonderful
     campaigns.  They have broken their forecast in spite of a pretty quiet
     world.  Its amazing the kind of ads that work!

      

     Let's turn to marketing and sales and the future.  Our readership is now
     about 5 percent of the Economist when we exclude corporate (not sure why
     we exclude corporate but that's what we do).  That means that we have
     probably saturated a good part of the early adopters market-the early
     adopters who love us and have built us-and put up with our weaknesses.
     It's kind of like people who supported Apple in its dark days, putting
     up with promising but not yet mature computers.  If you haven't read,
     \"Crossing the Chasm,\" a rare business book that is actually helpful,
     please take a look at it.  It will explain much of what we are trying to
     achieve in marketing.

      

     We have no choice but to grow.  If we stay this size someone larger,
     with deep pockets will notice the market we have created and come in
     after us.  We won't be able to compete.  The only protection is market
     share, to be so dominant a force in the market that no one challenges us
     and our own deep pockets.  For this we must grow revenue and that means
     readership.  The place we must grow is in the mainstream.  I don't mean
     by mainstream CNN. I mean readers who are interested in what we have,
     but aren't fanatics, groupies and wannabes.  These people have higher
     standards in production values, and less forgiveness for mistakes. They
     don't buy the mystique.  They buy the publication. That's where most of
     our customers are and where we have to go.

      

     Obviously this is one of the reasons we need more people.  It is also
     the reason we must deliver in new ways.  Grant Perry and his team are
     looking at ways to create a unique, Stratfor video culture. I see this
     myself as consisting of much longer and serious conversations among
     analysts moderated by an anchor, documentaries, briefings. Perhaps our
     Sitreps should all be delivered via video and audio (there is I think
     huge demand for audio products in cars, or so many people tell me).  All
     of this will evolve in unexpected directions under Grant, Colin, Brian,
     Andrew and others who will join them. This is part of our own evolution
     into the mainstream, on our own terms, with our own voice. What you see
     above, by the way, are simply my own ideas, not fully thought out. 
     Whatever Grant and his team produce will be uniquely Stratfor.

      

     Other than that we shall see.  What markets we will enter, and how we
     enter them is not yet known. We do know that the current Stratfor
     product, however enhanced, will be our only offering.  We will not be
     developing new products for markets. 

      

     We have hired a consultant, Mark Stacey, who will guide this process. 
     We will also be bringing in a consulting firm to do survey research and
     interviews to teach us more about our current readers, readers who won't
     buy us, and readers who would buy us if they had heard of us.  Our
     choice was between hiring staff to give us a plan or hiring consultants
     to give us a plan and then hiring permanent staff to execute it.  The
     latter is the safest-we avoid a staff without the skill to do what we
     need whom instead craft a plan to do what they already know.  In
     addition to this initiative, we are participating in the University of
     Texas Business School program where a team of graduate students will
     essentially parallel the work of our outside consultants, giving us a
     double check on the data. 

      

     The goal here is to have a marketing and sales plan in place for
     execution on January 1.  From where I sit, the biggest challenge we have
     is that too many people have never heard of us.  At a meeting I can
     encounter someone who has subscribed for years and next to him is a
     person in the same industry that has never heard of us.  It is difficult
     selling to people who have never heard of us.  So our challenge-before
     trying to sell to them-is to increase awareness of who we are.  This is
     called branding and it's different from selling.  It is the precursor. 
     We will start with branding in January. That means there will be
     marketing people around asking many questions in the coming months,
     frequently the same ones. Please work with all of them.  In the end, we
     will have a plan with a high likelihood of success.

      

     Parallel to all of this, the executives (without Don, Steve Feldhaus or
     myself-the board members) are going through a planning process of their
     own, coordinated by Frank Ginac.  Not being on it (and not wanting to be
     informed of what is going on as there should be yet another set of eyes
     on things other than mine) I can't tell you what they are doing. 
     However, the deal we have on this is that as CEO, I will proceed with
     implementing my own plans that I've outlined here, and will consider
     their proposals when I see them. If the decision point is past when they
     make their recommendation on a subject, the recommendation will not be
     considered.  If they come in with recommendations before decision
     points, their recommendations will be taken very seriously.  This allows
     the company to move forward and an alternative planning model to be
     brought on line when it is ready.

      

     The company has become too large and complex for any one person to know
     what is going on.  I am moving (with difficulty) from the role of an
     early entrepreneur, knowing everything going on and getting involved in
     it, to the CEO of a company at the inflexion point.   The inflexion
     point is the point all companies dream of and few achieve-when they
     start really taking off.  This is a great point and a dangerous one. 
     Unless the company changes the way it does things, inflexion aborts.  I
     am trying to change what I do.

      

     There are some things that have to remain my responsibility.  Building
     Intelligence and publishing and particularly training new staff are
     things that I should oversee.  Building the intelligence capabilities of
     the company along with Meredith is also my responsibility.  Creating new
     models to support Stratcap and helping to train Stratcap in the
     capabilities of Stratfor is mine. Overseeing our training of the Marine
     Corps is something I want to do.  Kendra will be my deputy for this, but
     this leaves a large load on me.

      

     Along with this, for better or worse, I am the public face of Stratfor. 
     My speeches and travels build the brand, create intelligence
     opportunities, and give me a clearer vision of how the world works.  I
     will be doing a lot of traveling to do these things, and I will combine
     them with the Geopolitical Journeys concept that seems to have hit a
     nerve.  During my travels I will be doing articles, videos and writing a
     book based on those journeys, on the world's borderlands.  Between that
     and making contacts for Stratfor and StratCap, I will be busy.

      

     Along with that load is going to be setting the broad direction of the
     company.  Through long and sometimes painful experience I have learned
     that ultimate responsibility can be delegated but not abandoned.  It's
     an old military principle that applies here. I have a vision for
     Stratfor and while I will delegate, I will not turn over responsibility
     because I can't.

      

     That means that we will need an evolving management structure.  I've
     asked Don who is formally President of Stratfor to join Darryl in both
     the day to day management of the company and in what we still call \"the
     business side.\"  One day we will simply be one company, but right now we
     are still two sides of one company.  Don and Darryl will now manage that
     side, implementing our plans there.  I will not disappear, but become
     intermittent on daily management but deeply focused on intelligence.

      

     One of the other things I must do is prepare a succession plan.  In some
     parts that are well developed, I already have that plan.  In other
     parts, we have to build an organization to have a succession plan.  But
     it is my intention that Stratfor survive me (no, I'm not feeling poorly
     and can still kick your ass).  I want to build this into the world's
     finest intelligence service, private and free to speak its mind.  I see
     this as the most lasting contribution I can make, and I am serious about
     making sure Stratfor goes on.

      

     We are all at the inflexion point where the level of effort temporarily
     soars until new resources are brought on line.  They couldn't have been
     staged in earlier because there weren't resources available.  But now
     they can't wait, because the moment will pass and perhaps never return. 
     For everything there is a \"now.\"  This is now.

      

     I ask only one specific thing of all of you. If you don't understanding
     anything here; if you want to learn more; if something worries you and
     your boss can't clear it up, come directly to me. I will be available
     until the last week of September when I go with others to Turkey. 
     Please, please, please, do not engage in a round of paranoia or
     speculation based on lack of data.  Just set a time to see me and let's
     discuss it.  StratFantasy (a new term) is I really believe the greatest
     danger to success that we have face.

      

     This is a long review, but many have said they'd like to know where we
     are and what we are doing.  This is about as comprehensive as I can get.
     There will be more such reports.  There are no short versions about
     where we are and what we are doing.

      

      

     OH YES-THIS IS FOR INTERNAL STRATFOR USE ONLY. DO NOT SHARE THIS
     DOCUMENT OR DISCUSS IT OUTSIDE OF STRATFOR.

      

     --

     George Friedman

     Founder and CEO

     STRATFOR

     221 West 6th Street

     Suite 400

     Austin, Texas 78701

      

     Phone: 512-744-4319

     Fax: 512-744-4334

      
","2011-09-07 15:42:45",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2312421_re-fwd-labor-day-review-of-where-we-are-.html","phillip.orchard@stratfor.com","","brad.foster@stratfor.com,sophie.steiner@stratfor.com",""
2322484,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
","   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart <stewart@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>; Korena Zucha<zucha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>, Alpha List
   <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
","2011-11-18 21:17:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2322484_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2323700,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged \"Anonymous\" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise \"anonymous\"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
","2011-11-10 19:47:39",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2323700_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2378745,"Re: [Fwd: Re: [CT] Pakistan crash pictures]
","Interesting factoid.

Comrade J (who is dead now) confirmed the KGB used the Zia murder on
PAK-1 as a case study in assassinations at their academy.

Brian Genchur wrote:
> i think this is a great tearline topic...  fred's an expert is looking
> at airplane crashes, he could diagram, and we also would have infinite
> footage.  maybe he could even break this one down by looking at the
> video (we show him watching it and breaking it down).
> 
> Brian Genchur
> Multimedia
> STRATFOR
> 
> 
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> *From: *\"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
> *To: *\"Marla Dial\" <dial@stratfor.com>, \"Grant Perry\"
> <grant.perry@stratfor.com>, \"Brian Genchur\"
> <brian.genchur@stratfor.com>, \"Andrew Damon\" <andrew.damon@stratfor.com>
> *Sent: *Thursday, July 29, 2010 9:36:04 AM
> *Subject: *[Fwd: Re: [CT] Pakistan crash pictures]
> 
> 
> 
> -------- Original Message --------
> Subject: Re: [CT] Pakistan crash pictures
> Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2010 09:33:45 -0500
> From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
> Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>
> To: Ryan Abbey <ryan.abbey@stratfor.com>
> CC: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>
> References: <830427280.445381.1280413631567.JavaMail.root@core.stratfor.com>
> 
> Most aircraft crash scenes are (especially in Pakistan) where chaos is
> the rule.  The initial search for live victims is the first step, than
> everyone SHOULD be pulled back to a perimeter that is taped/cordoned
> off.  Command & control in the 3rd world doesn't exist.  Most crime and
> crash scenes become contaminated with folks (citizens, fire, police,
> military) parading through, destroying possible trace evidence.  The
> stench from burning bodies is pretty bad if you are not use to it.
> VICKS vapor rub under the nose helps.  Add the sun, heat and humidity,
> the whole scene is pretty damn ripe.  Victim ID can also be problematic
> without dental records.  Many bodies can burn together.
> 
> 
> Ryan Abbey wrote:
>> Took an hour and 15 minutes to walk to the crash site (through forest,
>> with no paths) to get to the site.  [So at least that long, unless they
>> were flown in.]  Seemed like a pretty chaotic response - people milling
>> around - 300 volunteers or so.
>>
>>  
>>
>> Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/29/world/asia/29pstan.html
>>
>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>
>> *From: *\"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
>> *To: *\"Ryan Abbey\" <ryan.abbey@stratfor.com>, \"CT AOR\" <ct@stratfor.com>
>> *Sent: *Thursday, July 29, 2010 10:14:49 AM
>> *Subject: *Re: [CT] Pakistan crash pictures
>>
>> How many hours after the crash were these pictures taken?
>>
>> Ryan Abbey wrote:
>>>
>>> 'Tragic incident': Rescue officials work through the night recovering
>>> bodies from the plane wreckage
>>>
>>>  
>>>
>>> Difficult mission: Rescue workers sift through the remains of the plane
>>> crash which killed 152 people
>>>
>>>  
>>>
>>>
>>> plane crash--
>>>
>>> Rescue mission: Pakistani helicopters fly over smoke and wreckage of the
>>> plane in the Margalla Hills
>>>
>>>  
>>>
>>> Fatalities: The bodies of at least 45 people have been found in densely
>>> wooded hills near the crash scene
>>>
>>>  
>>>
>>> Rescue workers rushed to the crash site about 9 miles from the Islamabad
>>> airport. Fire had spread amid the thickly wooded hills.
>>>
>>>  
>>>
>>> Ryan Abbey
>>> Tactical Intern
>>> Stratfor
>>> ryan.abbey@stratfor.com
>>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> Ryan Abbey
>> Tactical Intern
>> Stratfor
>> ryan.abbey@stratfor.com
>>
","2010-07-29 18:20:49",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2378745_re-fwd-re-ct-pakistan-crash-pictures-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","dial@stratfor.com,brian.genchur@stratfor.com,grant.perry@stratfor.com,andrew.damon@stratfor.com",""
2539287,"Re: PUBLIC CONFESSION -the Lunch on me? scandal
","   Ignore all following rules.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Adam Wagh <adam.wagh@stratfor.com>
   Sender: stratforaustin-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 30 Aug 2011 14:28:35 -0500 (CDT)
   To: STRATFOR AUSTIN List<stratforaustin@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: STRATFOR AUSTIN List <stratforaustin@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: PUBLIC CONFESSION -the Lunch on me? scandal
   You have much to teach me Fred...Whats Fred's rule #1 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: stratforaustin@stratfor.com
   Sent: Tuesday, August 30, 2011 2:25:51 PM
   Subject: Re: PUBLIC CONFESSION -the Lunch on me? scandal

   You ate the bait.  

   Fred's rule # 2 -

   Admit nothing, deny everything and make counter-accusations. 

   On 8/30/2011 2:21 PM, Adam Wagh wrote:

     ATTENTION ALL - 
     Unfortunately, I think the culprit might be me. I usually keep a spare
     lunch in the freezer in case i forget to grab one before I leave the
     house (most often Amy's products including the pesto tortellini) and I
     did eat some today thinking it was my spare. I will of course replace
     the meal I ate, and try to be much more careful in the future. SORRY
     ROB!! 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Rob Bassetti\" <bassetti@stratfor.com>
     To: \"STRATFOR AUSTIN List\" <stratforaustin@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Tuesday, August 30, 2011 1:42:59 PM
     Subject: Lunch on me?

     Now that I've got your attention, someone has taken the lunch that I
     brought in (Amy's Pesto Tortellini bowl in freezer).  A good rule of
     thumb regarding food is that you do not take and consume what you didn't
     purchase.  That's commonly known as stealing.

     Rob

     --
     Rob Bassetti
     STRATFOR
     Finance Department
     512-744-4081
     bassetti@stratfor.com
","2011-08-30 21:37:18",1,"2012-02-27 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2539287_re-public-confession-the-lunch-on-me-scandal-.html","friedman@att.blackberry.net","mailto:stratforaustin@stratfor.com","Stratforaustin@stratfor.com",""
2557319,"[Eurasia] source coding
","   Hey Team,  
   As we're coding our sources, I wanted to make sure we weren't overlapping
   coding...
   Previously, I was 101-299 numbers. And others were 300 or 500s... meaning
   starting with the odd #s.
   If I go over 299 (my Russia sources in a few years just may as I'm at 188
   already). Then I may count backwards from 101.
   Anyway, I have some overarching sources that are part of more than one
   country... so I have sources as:
   CA-FSU - for Central Asia
   EU - for EU states/European states
   Anyway, lemme know if you have any issues with all of this. We need to be
   on the same page.
   Go Team!
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-01 03:19:21",1,"2012-02-27 02:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2557319_-eurasia-source-coding-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com","eurasia@stratfor.com",""
2600489,"[alpha] Fwd: Fwd: Fwd: ATFE, DHS, EPIC, FBI (UNCLASSIFIED)
"," >


 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
","2011-06-28 17:46:55",1,"2012-02-27 02:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2600489_-alpha-fwd-fwd-fwd-atfe-dhs-epic-fbi-unclassified-.html","michael.wilson@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com","attach/10/10382_Attached Message Part
attach/10/10383_ATFE Firearms Trafficking Utah to Venezuela.pdf
attach/10/10384_Attached Message Part-16
attach/10/10385_DHS Mexican Fe.pdf
attach/10/10386_FMSO JRIC Lati.pdf
attach/10/10387_FBI Jihadist W.pdf
attach/10/10388_FBI Mexican Co.pdf
attach/10/10389_FBI A Popular .pdf
attach/10/10390_FBI Hempstead .pdf
attach/10/10391_FBI Illicit Dr.pdf
attach/10/10392_EPIC Bulletin EB11-44.pdf
attach/10/10393_FBI Identifica.pdf
attach/10/10394_FBI Burning of.pdf
attach/10/10395_FBI Sovereign Citizens and the Internet.pdf
attach/10/10396_FBI Identifica-1.pdf
attach/10/10397_FBI Hells Ange.pdf
attach/10/10398_FBI Gambino an.pdf
attach/10/10399_FBI Solicitati.pdf
attach/10/10400_FBI Cleveland .pdf"
2606228,"Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
","   I think you should make responsiveness a separate category. Like we do
   with our red, orange, yellow classifications during source list reviews.
   That is responsiveness/accessibility, and it is distinct from
   reliability. 
   From: Jennifer Richmond <richmond@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2011 15:05:28 -0500
   To: <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
   As Stick said earlier, you can have a reliable source that is highly
   responsive that sometimes sends crap.  Item credibility is the place where
   you assess the information, and this changes from insight to insight. 
   Reliability is more about source responsiveness.  That said, and as Stick
   notes, reliability also speaks to the overall source's access to
   information as well as dependability.  In part some of this should also be
   addressed in the source description.

   We'll be fleshing these out a bit more in the next few weeks, and all
   suggestions are welcomed.

   On 7/29/11 2:51 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     My understanding of source reliability has always been the contact's
     personal reliability as a person who can provide accurate information.
     On 7/29/11 2:54 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       Sending to the list since these are good questions.  My responses in
       red.

       On 7/29/11 1:48 PM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

         I have 2 questions on this item.
         SOURCE RELIABILITY: A-F, A being the best and F being the worst.
          this
         grades the turnaround time of this source in responding to requests

         1) If this is based solely on turn around time, do we have company
         standards for the letters.  Like A = a couple of hours, D = a couple
         of weeks, etc?  We do need to better identify what each letter
         means.  In the meantime, in my book A=within 24 hours, B=48 hours,
         C=a couple of days, D=over a week, F=lucky if we get a response
         2) Also I previously thought this item reflected both reliability in
         turn around time and also reliability to give good information.  So
         like if someone was obviously anti-chavez or exaggerates a lot, I
         would bump them down a bit since the insight should be taken with a
         grain of salt.  How do you want us to inform others of potential
         bias or questionable material?  In the description section? It is
         mainly addresses their reliability to respond.  ITEM CREDIBILITY is
         the place where we code the information.  In most cases this changes
         from insight to insight whereas SOURCE RELIABILITY is a little more
         static.  Some sources know nothing about politics but give excellent
         info on econ.  So, credibilty changes frequently even with the same
         source and one of the reasons why we need to keep up with the entire
         ID tags when sending in insight.  As to the last question, I usually
         make a note of their bias for a particular insight in the
         credibility section.  In the description section you can write out
         their personal biases - e.g. the dude only hangs with the wealthy so
         this insight is likely to be skewed towards elite perceptions, or
         something like that. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"Jennifer Richmond\" <richmond@stratfor.com>
         To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
         Sent: Friday, July 29, 2011 1:41:39 PM
         Subject: [alpha] sourcing insight

         We've gotten lazy on insight source IDs again.  Not only do you need
         to
         put the source code in the subject line, but all of these categories
         need to be filled out for every single insight sent to the list.

         SOURCE: code
         ATTRIBUTION: this is what we should say if we use this info in a
         publication, e.g. STRATFOR source/source in the medical
         industry/source
         on the ground, etc
         SOURCE DESCRIPTION: this is where we put the more concrete details
         of
         the source for our internal consumption so we can better understand
         the
         source's background and ability to make the assessments in the
         insight
         PUBLICATION: Yes or no.  If you put yes it doesn't mean that we will
         publish it, but only that we can publish it.
         SOURCE RELIABILITY: A-F, A being the best and F being the worst.
          this
         grades the turnaround time of this source in responding to requests
         ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1-10, 1 being the best and 10 being the worst (we
         may
         change the range here in the future).  this changes a lot based on
         the
         info provided.  1 is \"you can take this to the bank\" and 10 would be
         an
         example of maybe - \"this is a totally ridiculous rumor but something
         that is spreading on the ground\"
         SPECIAL HANDLING: often this is \"none\" but it may be something like,
         \"if
         you use this we need to be sure not to mention the part about XXX in
         the
         publication\" or any other special notes
         SOURCE HANDLER: the person who can take follow-up questions and
         communicate with the source

         If you have any questions, concerns or suggestions, let me know.
          I'll
         be back in the office next Tues so if you want to discuss this
         process
         in person we can do so soon.  In the meantime, remember that every
         piece
         of insight needs this ENTIRE ID unless it is just something that you
         picked up off the ground from a source that you will likely not hear
         from again.  Even then, you should fill out the entire ID and in the
         SOURCE field simply say - n/a with a description on why we are not
         coding them.

         Jen
         PS: Also remember that is something is highly sensitive to send
         directly
         - not thru a WO - to the \"secure\" list.  Secure list insights still
         need
         the above ID tags.

         --
         Jennifer Richmond
         STRATFOR
         China Director
         Director of International Projects
         (512) 422-9335
         richmond@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.comwww.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.comwww.stratfor.com
","2011-07-29 22:08:01",1,"2012-02-27 02:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2606228_re-alpha-sourcing-insight-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2621778,"Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
","   You can stay on Alpha. 
   From: Marko Primorac <marko.primorac@stratfor.com>
   Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2011 10:30:35 -0500 (CDT)
   To: scott stewart <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
   Stick:

   I'm emailing IT right now to get me off Alpha / Secure just so you know.

   I'm not on Secure or Alpha List on Thunderbird / didn't even think about
   that once I got here reading Zimbra it didn't register until the thread
   below. I dropped the ball / take full responsibility.

   Emailing IT to get me off the list immediately.
   Sincerely,

   Marko Primorac
   Tactical Analyst
   marko.primorac@stratfor.com
   Cell: 011 385 99 885 1373

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"scott stewart\" <stewart@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Friday, July 29, 2011 4:58:35 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] sourcing insight

   We need to change that.  A simple email to IT before a trip gets you off
   the list. 
   From: Kamran Bokhari <bokhari@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2011 16:51:42 -0400
   To: <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
   Ok, but even when I have been outside the continent I have still been on
   secure. 
   On 7/29/11 4:03 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     Yeah. We don't consider Canada to really be overseas.  
     From: Kamran Bokhari <bokhari@stratfor.com>
     Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Date: Fri, 29 Jul 2011 15:49:34 -0400
     To: <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: [alpha] sourcing insight
     I have always been secure even though I am always overseas.

     On 7/29/11 2:59 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       Ok, good question.

       The secure list is not supposed to have anyone overseas on it.  (And
       as a side note, if you are traveling overseas you need to get yourself
       off this list while out of the country.)  We have many WOs overseas
       and so when we send something to secure it is just one more way we are
       trying to protect sourcing by not having it sent over international
       wires (yes, of course, there are many ways that foreigners can access
       any insight sent from anywhere at anytime, but it is somewhat more
       secure when we email only within CONUS).  So either a source or
       insight that is highly sensitive needs to go to the secure list only,
       and that means that we send it in ourselves because the overseas WOs
       won't be able to pick it up.

       Alpha goes to analysts/writers (and the few others selected on this
       list) and not ADPs or Interns, including to analysts/writers overseas.

       On 7/29/11 1:50 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

         your last line in the P.S.... said to send things directly to
         secure... I wanted to know if that meant only to secure or to alpha
         too.
         I think there is still some confusion over which list is which.
         On 7/29/11 1:47 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

           I don't understand your question.  This applies to both lists. 
           All sources need IDs (as mentioned in my PS - does that answer
           your question?).

           As to the question of sending from BBs, I definitely understand
           that issue.  When you return to your computer, please reply to the
           insight sent out with the full coding.  We need this info to
           really track insight and any changes over time.

           On 7/29/11 1:45 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

             secure or alpha?

             On 7/29/11 1:41 PM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

 We've gotten lazy on insight source IDs again.  Not only do you need to
 put the source code in the subject line, but all of these categories
 need to be filled out for every single insight sent to the list.

 SOURCE: code
 ATTRIBUTION: this is what we should say if we use this info in a
 publication, e.g. STRATFOR source/source in the medical industry/source
 on the ground, etc
 SOURCE DESCRIPTION: this is where we put the more concrete details of
 the source for our internal consumption so we can better understand the
 source's background and ability to make the assessments in the insight
 PUBLICATION: Yes or no.  If you put yes it doesn't mean that we will
 publish it, but only that we can publish it.
 SOURCE RELIABILITY: A-F, A being the best and F being the worst.  this
 grades the turnaround time of this source in responding to requests
 ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1-10, 1 being the best and 10 being the worst (we may
 change the range here in the future).  this changes a lot based on the
 info provided.  1 is \"you can take this to the bank\" and 10 would be an
 example of maybe - \"this is a totally ridiculous rumor but something
 that is spreading on the ground\"
 SPECIAL HANDLING: often this is \"none\" but it may be something like, \"if
 you use this we need to be sure not to mention the part about XXX in the
 publication\" or any other special notes
 SOURCE HANDLER: the person who can take follow-up questions and
 communicate with the source

 If you have any questions, concerns or suggestions, let me know.  I'll
 be back in the office next Tues so if you want to discuss this process
 in person we can do so soon.  In the meantime, remember that every piece
 of insight needs this ENTIRE ID unless it is just something that you
 picked up off the ground from a source that you will likely not hear
 from again.  Even then, you should fill out the entire ID and in the
 SOURCE field simply say - n/a with a description on why we are not
 coding them.

 Jen
 PS: Also remember that is something is highly sensitive to send directly
 - not thru a WO - to the \"secure\" list.  Secure list insights still need
 the above ID tags.


             --
             Lauren Goodrich
             Senior Eurasia Analyst
             STRATFOR
             T: 512.744.4311
             F: 512.744.4334
             lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
             www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.comwww.stratfor.com

         --
         Lauren Goodrich
         Senior Eurasia Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: 512.744.4311
         F: 512.744.4334
         lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.comwww.stratfor.com
","2011-08-01 18:00:24",1,"2012-03-01 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2621778_re-alpha-sourcing-insight-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","","marko.primorac@stratfor.com",""
2649190,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
","   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marc Lanthemann\" <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-14 20:55:23",1,"2012-02-28 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2649190_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2654712,"[alpha] =?utf-8?q?INSIGHT_-_CN65_Re=3A_CHINA/AUSTRALIA/ENERGY/GV_?=
 =?utf-8?q?-_Shell=2C_PetroChina=E2=80=99s_Arrow_Energy_Offers_=24540_Mill?=
 =?utf-8?q?ion_to_Acquire_Bow_Energy?=
","   **Asked source if we should care about this news.

   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen
   The Consul-General said last week that gas was of great importance to
   them, as were all energy supplies, but gas particularly so.  There was the
   usual stuff concerning their environmental concerns, but he stressed that
   they were going to make long term commitments to the gas sector.  He did
   not differentiate between off-take commitments, or equity commitments.
   I also know that CNOOC has an investment team sitting in Brisbane, headed
   by a GM.  This is interesting, as they have not made any equity
   investments, which suggests they may be intending or hoping to do so.
    That would be an additional stake over the ones announced so far.
   There is a potential Chinese gas deal that has been in negotiation for
   sixteen months.  I don't know if this involves CNOOC or not, so it could
   be yet another deal, as i don't believe it is the bid for Bow.
   The gas sector is fairly tightly held in Australia.  I don't know what
   minor explorers are left, but they are probably in NSW, rather than
   Queensland.  Queensland has already seen a fair bit of consolidation over
   the last six or seven years.
   Of course any bid will have to go through the FIRB.  There is also a lot
   of community concern in the farming sector about impacts on the aquifers,
   which concern is well based.  That may also be a factor in any FIRB
   approval.

         Should we care about this?  What are the Chinese up to lately in Oz?

         -------- Original Message --------

         Subject: CHINA/AUSTRALIA/ENERGY/GV - Shell, PetroChina's Arrow       
                  Energy Offers $540 Million to Acquire Bow Energy            
            Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2011 09:38:05 -0500                             
            From: Michael Sher <michael.sher@stratfor.com>                    
              To: The OS List <os@stratfor.com>, Jennifer Richmond            
                  <richmond@stratfor.com>                                     

         Shell, PetroChina's Arrow Energy Offers $540 Million to Acquire Bow
         Energy
         Aug 22, 2011 2:09 AM CT
         http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-21/bow-energy-receives-proposal-from-arrow-energy-at-a-1-48-share.html

         Arrow plans a fourth LNG venture on Queensland's Curtis Island,
         following approvals for more than $50 billion in rival developments
         led by BG Group Plc, Santos Ltd. and ConocoPhillips to meet rising
         demand in Asia. Photographer: Eric Taylor/Bloomberg

         Arrow Energy Ltd., owned by Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) and
         PetroChina Co., offered about A$520 million ($540 million) for Bow
         Energy Ltd. (BOW), seeking more resources to underpin a proposed
         liquefied natural gas project in Australia.

         Arrow, a coal-seam gas explorer and producer in Queensland state,
         offered A$1.48 a share in cash, Brisbane-based Bow said today in a
         statement. That's 67 percent more than Bow's price of 88.5 cents in
         Sydney trading on Aug. 19. The shares surged 60 percent today to
         A$1.415 at the 4:10 p.m. close.

         The bid \"does significantly undervalue the stock compared with where
         we think it should be,\" said Andrew Williams, a Melbourne-based oil
         and gas analyst at RBC Capital Markets, who has a price target of
         A$1.75 on Bow's shares. \"It still leaves scope for upside and more
         play to come.\"

         Arrow plans a fourth LNG venture on Queensland's Curtis Island,
         following approvals for more than $50 billion in rival developments
         led by BG Group Plc (BG/), Santos Ltd. (STO) and ConocoPhillips
         (COP) to meet rising demand in Asia. Bow has been the subject of
         takeover speculation since Santos, Australia's third-largest oil and
         gas producer, agreed last month to pay about A$730 million to buy
         the shares in Eastern Star Gas Ltd. (ESG) it didn't already own.

         Bow has been in talks to supply gas to the companies developing the
         LNG projects in Queensland as it targets a more than fivefold gain
         in reserves by next year, Chief Executive Officer John De Stefani
         said in an Aug. 3 interview. Bow increased its proven and probable
         reserves to 238 petajoules last month and aims to reach 1,250
         petajoules in 2012, enough gas to support an LNG plant producing 1
         million metric tons of the fuel annually over 20 years, De Stefani
         said.
         `LNG Opportunity'

         The offer values Bow at about 6 Australian cents a gigajoule of gas
         reserves that may be recoverable, 33 percent less than the price
         Santos agreed to pay for Eastern Star and the amount Shell and
         PetroChina paid last year for Arrow, John Young, a Melbourne-based
         analyst at Wilson HTM Investment Group, estimated today. Those deals
         valued the targets at 9 cents a gigajoule, he said.

         \"Bow is still working to demonstrate conversion to 2P reserves,\"
         from proven, probable and possible reserves, \"whereas Arrow and
         Eastern Star were probably more advanced,\" Young said, adding he
         thinks a rival bid is unlikely.

         Dart Energy Ltd. (DTE), a Sydney-listed company developing coal bed
         methane resources in countries including Australia, rose 6.7 percent
         to 56 cents in Sydney, the most in four months. Exoma Energy Ltd.
         (EXE), a natural gas explorer in Queensland, climbed 21 percent to
         14.5 cents in Sydney, the most since July 1.

         A transaction with Bow would help Arrow increase the size of its
         first two LNG processing units, Chief Executive Officer Andrew
         Faulkner said today in a statement. Arrow initially plans to produce
         4 million tons of LNG a year from each of the first two units, the
         company said this month.
         `Complementary' Businesses

         Shell is \"quite happy\" to wait to develop the Arrow LNG project as
         costs to develop ventures rise, Peter Voser, chief executive officer
         of The Hague-based company, told analysts in July. Arrow expects a
         final investment decision to proceed with its development in late
         2013, Faulkner said in June.

         \"Shell's public statements indicate that they didn't mind being
         last, and they were willing to wait,\" RBC's Williams said. \"Now it
         looks as though they may want to accelerate it. It's a clear signal
         there is an LNG opportunity out there.\"

         Bow recommends that shareholders take no action at this stage, the
         company said in the statement.

         \"It makes sense for both companies to explore business opportunities
         given the proximity of both companies' coal-seam gas assets and the
         complementary nature of our businesses,\" Arrow's Faulkner said.
         \"Arrow has the technical capability, capital resources and
         guaranteed market that may assist Bow Energy realize the potential
         of its assets.\"

         Conoco and Sydney-based partner Origin Energy Ltd. (ORG) last month
         approved the first phase of a $20 billion project in Queensland.
         Santos said in January its venture would cost $16 billion, while BG
         in October said it would invest $15 billion.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4105
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-08-24 04:11:24",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2654712_-alpha-utf-8-q-insight_-_cn65_re-3a_china-australia-energy.html","clint.richards@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2687619,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged \"Anonymous\" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise \"anonymous\"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
","2011-11-10 19:47:39",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2687619_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2695750,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
","   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-17 14:01:00",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2695750_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2711990,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - HZ/SYRIA/TURKEY - HZ requesting missile
 components from Turkey? - ME1*
","   This sounds quite incredible to me. How come Syria can give access to its
   Turkish suppliers of missile technology? It's not a dealer in grand
   bazaar. Only Roketsan has the missile technology in Turkey and it is a
   state-owned military institution. I checked the defense products of the
   two companies (see below) and I'm not sure how Hez can produce a missile
   with these.
   http://www.hidromode.com/eng/hidromode_urun_katagorisi.asp
   http://www.unimetal.com.tr/eng/urunler_unimetal.html

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Michael Wilson\" <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, September 8, 2011 1:01:15 PM
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - HZ/SYRIA/TURKEY - HZ requesting missile
   components from Turkey? - ME1*

   On 9/8/11 12:50 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     SOURCE: sub-source via ME1
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Jamaat al Islamiya activist in Lebanon via ME1
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: C-D
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: no idea!
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
     SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

     ho expresses fundamental concerns about the ability of the Syrian regime
     to survive the current crisis, says Hizbullah is worried about the
     continued flow of missiles/rockets from Syria what does he mean worried
     about it? worried that it will stop? and claims the Syrians receive
     their know-how and certain missile components not only from Iran and
     North Korea, but also from Turkey. HZ official asked the Syrians to give
     them direct access to their Turkish suppliers of missile technology. The
     Syrians were affronted and refused to give HZ any specific information.
     He says a Syrian military official told his HZ counterpart not to worry
     about the ability of the Syrian regime to stay in power. He claims there
     are two specific Turkish companies that HZ is interested in directly
     communicating with:Hidromode and Unimetal that produce missile
     components using project line wax technology.

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112

   --
   --
   Emre Dogru
   STRATFOR  
   Cell: +90.532.465.7514
   Fixed: +1.512.279.9468  
   emre.dogru@stratfor.com  
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-08 20:18:52",1,"2012-03-08 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2711990_re-alpha-insight-hz-syria-turkey-hz-requesting-missile.html","emre.dogru@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2741245,"Re: [alpha] State/DSS on recent UK Birmingham round up
","   US leaks

   Leaks compromised UK prosecutions about a year ago.

   We caught the Brits kiling IRA in the past and they lied to us.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Chris Farnham <chris.farnham@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Tue, 20 Sep 2011 19:16:21 -0500 (CDT)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] State/DSS on recent UK Birmingham round up
   What changed between the Brits and the US?

   Wikileaks fallout?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: burton@stratfor.com
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, 21 September, 2011 9:20:46 AM
   Subject: [alpha] State/DSS on recent UK Birmingham round up

   Was the recent UK plot serious?
   --------------------------

   Brits no longer trust the US to share outright.  

   Looks so on the surface
   but to early on to do more than speculate.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

   --

   Chris Farnham
   Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR
   Australia Mobile: 0423372241
   Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-21 02:27:28",1,"2012-02-29 03:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2741245_re-alpha-state-dss-on-recent-uk-birmingham-round-up-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2794652,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-11 13:59:34",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2794652_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2799900,"Geronimo source payment
","Hello Fred,=20

Can you send us an \"approved\" email for the source that Marko left with you=
. Geronimo, $1200 monthly payment.=20

Since this is a recurring payment, you can also send us something like \"I a=
pprove this expense for the remainder of the term, or until I say otherwise=
.=20

Thanks,=20

Fernando Jaimes=20
Staff Accountant=20
STRATFOR=20
221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
T: 512-279-9469 =A6 F: 512-744-4105
www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-12-06 21:28:10",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2799900_geronimo-source-payment-.html","fernando.jaimes@stratfor.com","","ar@stratfor.com,fred.burton@core.stratfor.com",""
2800258,"Org Chart 2011
","12","2011-12-12 17:51:02",1,"2012-02-27 02:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2800258_org-chart-2011-.html","","","isaiah.massey@stratfor.com","attach/135/135464_Employee Org Chart as of CYE.xlsx"
2800966,"Jen Richmond's Source
","14","2011-12-14 22:39:49",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2800966_jen-richmond-s-source-.html","fernando.jaimes@stratfor.com","","mfriedman@stratfor.com,ar@stratfor.com","attach/122/122530_Bill or Credit - STRATFOR - QuickBooks Online Plus.pdf"
2803290,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
","   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart <stewart@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>; Korena Zucha<zucha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>, Alpha List
   <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
","2011-11-18 21:17:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2803290_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2831900,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-11 13:59:34",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2831900_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2851550,"Wires for Approval Template
","16","2011-12-06 23:38:04",1,"2012-02-27 02:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2851550_wires-for-approval-template-.html","","","ar@stratfor.com","attach/136/136715_Wires to Contractors for Approval Contractor payments.pdf"
2881990,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
","   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marc Lanthemann\" <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-14 20:55:23",1,"2012-02-28 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2881990_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2887615,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged \"Anonymous\" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise \"anonymous\"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
","2011-11-10 19:47:39",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2887615_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2887843,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-11 13:59:34",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2887843_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2897611,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
","   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marc Lanthemann\" <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-14 20:55:23",1,"2012-02-28 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2897611_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2915509,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
","   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart <stewart@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>; Korena Zucha<zucha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>, Alpha List
   <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
","2011-11-18 21:17:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2915509_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2917676,"Follow-up
","","2011-08-30 16:12:44",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2917676_follow-up-.html","dedwards@heidrick.com","","shea.morenz@stratfor.com,psmith@heidrick.com,rtiminsky@heidrick.com","attach/137/137777_JS - Stratcap CIO.doc
attach/137/137778_CL - Stratfor CIO.doc"
2917714,"FW: Stratfor - Execution versions of documents
","","2011-08-02 21:05:30",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2917714_fw-stratfor-execution-versions-of-documents-.html","BHerzog@willkie.com","","kuykendall@stratfor.com,sf@feldhauslaw.com,shea.morenz@stratfor.com,MSilver@willkie.com","attach/121/121440_1 Amendment to Contribution and Subscription Agreement.pdf
attach/121/121441_8 Stratfor_ Re.pdf
attach/121/121442_20 Morenz - Stratfor - Services Agreement.pdf
attach/121/121444_9 Stratfor_ Re.pdf
attach/121/121446_15 16 Morenz - Stratfor - Incentive Unit Agreement.pdf
attach/121/121447_14 Morenz - Stratfor - Stratfor Enterprises LLC Agreement.pdf
attach/121/121448_11 Stratfor_ R.pdf
attach/121/121449_10 Stratfor_ R.pdf
attach/121/121450_2 General Conveyance Assignment Contribution and Assumption Agreement.pdf
attach/121/121452_7 Stratfor_ Re.pdf
attach/137/137783_30 31 Resolutions of SM Stratfor Partners, LLC.pdf
attach/137/137784_19 Stratcap Management Company Agreement.pdf"
2920964,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
","   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-17 14:01:00",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2920964_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2922144,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged \"Anonymous\" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise \"anonymous\"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
","2011-11-10 19:47:39",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2922144_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2926405,"FW: Stratcap International Organizational Chart (SA Ventures) -
 Attorney/Client Privileged Communication
","43","2011-12-05 23:37:05",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2926405_fw-stratcap-international-organizational-chart-sa-ventures.html","bknippa@jw.com","","shea.morenz@stratfor.com,hope.massey@stratfor.com,stammwc@gmail.com,jstephenson@jw.com,cmcdowell@jw.com","attach/137/137921_rmlist.doc
attach/137/137922_SovereignCyprusNames.doc
attach/137/137923_Stratcap Inter.VSD
attach/137/137924_image001.gif
attach/137/137925_Sovereign due diligence requirements 2.doc
attach/137/137926_.pdf
attach/137/137927_.doc
attach/137/137928_Application Trust Cyprus.doc"
2928884,"<no subject>
","","2011-12-10 21:11:46",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2928884_-no-subject-.html","shea.morenz@stratfor.com","","shea.morenz@stratfor.com","attach/138/138161_STRATCAP COMP.xlsx"
2942294,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
","   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart <stewart@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>; Korena Zucha<zucha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>, Alpha List
   <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
","2011-11-18 21:17:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2942294_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
2949744,"Chinese investment in Brazil
","3","2011-08-04 16:20:50",1,"2012-08-02 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2949744_chinese-investment-in-brazil-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","shea.morenz@stratfor.com","attach/11/11324_Chinese_Investments_in_Brazil_Research.pdf"
2972881,"Fwd: FLASH/PLEASE INVOICE-Hunt Oil Contract Renewal
","   And one to grow on!

   Sent from my iPad
   Begin forwarded message:

     From: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
     To: Kuykendall Don <kuykendall@stratfor.com>, Darryl O'Connor
     <darryl.oconnor@stratfor.com>, Rob Bassetti <rob.bassetti@stratfor.com>,
     'Fernando Jaimes' <fernando.jaimes@stratfor.com>, 'Holly Sparkman'
     <holly.sparkman@stratfor.com>
     Subject: FLASH/PLEASE INVOICE-Hunt Oil Contract Renewal

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        Client: Hunt Oil
              Project: Renewal of Strategic Monitoring services for Iraq,
              Mexico, Peru and Yemen.
              Note that their current contract does not expire until Sept.
              15, however they wish to receive the invoice and process the
              payment now.
              Services Time frame: Sept. 16, 2011-Sept. 15, 2012
              Payment Terms: They are going with Option 2 (up front
              payment). \"STRATFOR will invoice CLIENT for the entire sum
              (less a 5 percent discount or $42,393.75) upon execution of
              the Agreement. Invoice is due upon receipt.\"
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        FEES
                Details
                Pricing
                Option
                        1A*Intelligence Monitoring and Monthly Forecasts
                (quarterly
                        payments)
                $44,625.00
                        (or four payments of $11,156.25)
                Option
                          2A*Intelligence Monitoring and Monthly Forecasts
                (up-front
                          payment)
                $44,625.00
                          (less a 5 percent discount or $42,393.75)
              Billing contact:
            Debby
                Efurd
                Business Security Analyst - Global Security
                Hunt Consolidated Inc. | 1900 North Akard Street | Dallas,
                TX 75201-2300
                T: 214.978.8602 | F: 214.855.6779 | E: defurd@huntoil.com
                Please let me know if you have any questions.
                Korena

     <20110728145032.pdf>
","2011-07-29 00:21:45",1,"2012-03-01 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2972881_fwd-flash-please-invoice-hunt-oil-contract-renewal-.html","kuykendall@stratfor.com","","sf@feldhauslaw.com,shea.morenz@stratfor.com",""
2975424,"RE: Stratfor/Stratcap Structure Matters
","That is very clear, thank you!

--
Shea Morenz
Managing Partner
STRATFOR
221 W. 6th Street
Suite 400
Austin, Texas 78701

O: 512-583-7721 ¦ M: 713.410.9719 ¦ F: 512.744.4105

 www.STRATFOR.com


-----Original Message-----
From: Feldhaus, Stephen [mailto:sf@feldhauslaw.com]
Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 10:58 AM
To: Knippa, Brad; Shea B. Morenz
Cc: Mr. Don R. Kuykendall; Craig Stamm; McDowell, Cale; Mr. George
Friedman
Subject: RE: Stratfor/Stratcap Structure Matters

Shea,

Brad and Cale and I had a very thorough and good discussion about all of
the outstanding issues.  There is no suggestion on anyone's part that the
August 1 transaction was not properly documented, or that it was not
properly approved by the shareholders of Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

Shareholders of Strategic Forecasting, Inc., holding more than 80% of the
voting shares of Strategic Forecasting, Inc., approved ALL of the
transactions that occurred effective April 25 and August 1.  That approval
included the formation of Stratcap Management Company, LLC, the
shareholding therein by Stratfor Holdings, LLC, and by Stratfor
Enterprises, LLC, as well as the Services Agreement being entered into by
Stratfor Enterprises, LLC, and Stratcap Management Company, LLC.
Furthermore, each of the signatories of the shareholders consent of
Strategic Forecsting, Inc., had the final documents in hand for every
transaction, including the specific ones referenced above, when they
signed the shareholder consent.

I am reciting the foregoing to make it clear that the purpose of our
exercise is not to correct an error that occurred at the time of the
original closing, which I take it from your comments and email yesterday
seems to be the impression that you had.

Having said the foregoing, I and we are delighted to work with Brad and
Cale to provide as broad a shareholder approval as you may want for any
aspect of our relationship, including to obtain the approval of most of
the rest of the shareholders of strategic Forecasting, Inc. to the
original transaction.

Brad, Cale, and I are in agreement that the Consolidated relationship
should be blessed by as many of the shareholders of Strategic Forecasting,
Inc., as possible, to document their approval of that transactions, to
document the intention that Strategic Forecasting, Inc., and Stratfor
Enterprises, LLC, will respectively participate in these types of
transactions in the future with an equity participation no less than their
participation in Stratcap, and to obtain shareholder approval for George
and Don's participation in Consolidated.

Don't hesitate to let me know if you have any questions.

Best,

Steve

CIRCULAR 230 NOTICE
In accordance with Treasury Regulations, please note that any tax advice
given herein (and in any attachments) is not intended or written to be
used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of (i) avoiding
tax penalties or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another
party any transaction or matter addressed herein.


This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential information
belonging to the sender which is legally privileged. The information is
intended only for the use of the individual or entity named above. If you
are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any
disclosure, copying, distribution, or the taking of any action regarding
the contents of this e-mailed information is strictly prohibited. If you
have received this transmission in error, please immediately notify us by
return e-mail, then delete the original message.

-----Original Message-----
From: Feldhaus, Stephen
Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 9:22 AM
To: 'Knippa, Brad'; Shea B. Morenz
Cc: Mr. Don R. Kuykendall; Craig Stamm; McDowell, Cale; Mr. George
Friedman
Subject: RE: Stratfor/Stratcap Structure Matters

Perfect.


CIRCULAR 230 NOTICE
In accordance with Treasury Regulations, please note that any tax advice
given herein (and in any attachments) is not intended or written to be
used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of (i) avoiding
tax penalties or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another
party any transaction or matter addressed herein.


This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential information
belonging to the sender which is legally privileged. The information is
intended only for the use of the individual or entity named above. If you
are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any
disclosure, copying, distribution, or the taking of any action regarding
the contents of this e-mailed information is strictly prohibited. If you
have received this transmission in error, please immediately notify us by
return e-mail, then delete the original message.

-----Original Message-----
From: Knippa, Brad [mailto:bknippa@jw.com]
Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 9:17 AM
To: Feldhaus, Stephen; Shea B. Morenz
Cc: Mr. Don R. Kuykendall; Craig Stamm; McDowell, Cale; Mr. George
Friedman
Subject: RE: Stratfor/Stratcap Structure Matters

I'd be pleased to visit.  I'm stepping into a meeting but will try to
reach you on your cell at 9:30.  Thanks.

Bradley S. Knippa, JD, CPA
Jackson Walker L.L.P.
100 Congress Avenue, Suite 1100
Austin, Texas 78701
Direct: (512) 236-2284
Mobile: (512) 431-8336
Facsimile: (512) 391-2126
E-mail: bknippa@jw.com
Web: www.jw.com

This message and any attachments contain privileged and confidential
attorney client information and/or attorney work product exclusively for
intended recipients. Please do not forward or distribute to anyone else.
If you have received this e-mail in error, please call (512) 236-2284 to
report the error then delete this message from your system.  The
statements contained herein are not intended to and do not constitute an
opinion as to any tax or other matter. They are not intended or written to
be used, and may not be relied upon, by you or any other person for the
purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed under any Federal tax
law or otherwise.


-----Original Message-----
From: Feldhaus, Stephen [mailto:sf@feldhauslaw.com]
Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 8:01 AM
To: Shea B. Morenz; Feldhaus, Stephen
Cc: Knippa, Brad; Mr. Don R. Kuykendall; Craig Stamm; McDowell, Cale; Mr.
George Friedman
Subject: Re: Stratfor/Stratcap Structure Matters

Brad,

Let's chat this morning to see what's behind Shea's impression that there
is something wrong with the Stockholders Consent I sent around last
evening. My cell is 202-531-2211.

Best,

Steve
-----Original Message-----
From: Shea Morenz <shea.morenz@stratfor.com>
Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2011 06:47:45
To: Feldhaus, Stephen<sf@feldhauslaw.com>
Cc: Knippa, Brad<bknippa@jw.com>; Don Kuykendall<kuykendall@stratfor.com>;
Craig Stamm<stammwc@gmail.com>; McDowell, Cale<cmcdowell@jw.com>; George
Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>
Subject: Re: Stratfor/Stratcap Structure Matters

Simply trying to get all on the same page... Glad we are on this point as
I was not under that impression. Anything misinterpreted in the other
points?
Thx

--
Shea Morenz
STRATFOR
Managing Partner
office: 512.583.7721
Cell: 713.410.9719
shea.morenz@stratfor.com

(Sent from my iPhone)

On Dec 12, 2011, at 11:33 PM, \"Feldhaus, Stephen\" <sf@feldhauslaw.com>
wrote:

> Shea,
>
> It is late but I notice a sense of urgency and perhaps even more in your
highlighted section and the comment following below.
>
> Please note that your attorney, Bruce Herzog, approved the Strategic
Forecasting, Inc. shareholder consent that was executed as part of the
closing.  Please also note that this consent, which is attached, is, as I
told you today, a very broad consent, and is more than adequate to
constitute the consent of the signing shareholders of Strategic
Forecasting, Inc, for the Stratcap investment and Services Agreement.  I
am glad to provide a broader consent as you indicate you wish, and to
provide copies of all the documents to the other shareholders as you
indicate you wish, and to attempt to obtain the approval of as many of the
other shareholders as we can, but your implication that you are surprised
at what happened is equally surprising to me, since Bruce was fully aware
of everything that we did, and was fine with it and with the language of
the attached consent (which he specifically approved) at the time of our
August 1 closing.
>
> I am hopeful that there has been a miscommunication somewhere along the
line on your side, because the implication of your email that Stratfor has
done something improper that could imperil your ability to recruit
candidates is alarming and I truly do not believe is correct in any
respect.
>
> Again, I do hope that a miscommunication has occurred.  I felt that Brad
and I understood what each was saying.  I do not concur with the
implication of your email that Stratfor has done anything improper, and I
do know that Bruce certainly did not believe that we did anything
improper, because he approved the language of the consent.
>
> My plane leaves at 11:30 in the morning.  I am available before then or
after my arrival at 3:30 your time to discuss any of this as fully and
completely as you or Brad would like.  I am also more than willing to take
any action that you or Brad feel is needed to provide Stratcap with the
best offering memorandum possible.  But I do not accept that Stratfor has
failed to do something properly that imperils the Stratcap venture in any
way.
>
> Best,
>
> Steve
>
>
>
>
>
> CIRCULAR 230 NOTICE
> In accordance with Treasury Regulations, please note that any tax advice
given herein (and in any attachments) is not intended or written to be
used, and cannot be used by any taxpayer, for the purpose of (i) avoiding
tax penalties or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another
party any transaction or matter addressed herein.
>
> 
> This e-mail and any attachments may contain confidential information
belonging to the sender which is legally privileged. The information is
intended only for the use of the individual or entity named above. If you
are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any
disclosure, copying, distribution, or the taking of any action regarding
the contents of this e-mailed information is strictly prohibited. If you
have received this transmission in error, please immediately notify us by
return e-mail, then delete the original message.
>
> From: Shea Morenz [mailto:shea.morenz@stratfor.com]
> Sent: Monday, December 12, 2011 10:06 PM
> To: Knippa, Brad; Don Kuykendall
> Cc: Feldhaus, Stephen; 'Craig Stamm'; McDowell, Cale; George Friedman
> Subject: Re: Stratfor/Stratcap Structure Matters
>
> Steve, pls confirm / correct the key follow-up points from today as I
certain I have missed something:
>
> 1. Squeeze-out merger/Subchapter S election of Strategic Forecasting,
> Inc. (\"Stratfor Inc.\") -we will exchange the preferred Inc shares for
> a note, which requires the approval of Don and Steve alone -we will
> get all 65 shareholders to approve the transaction
>
> 2. Stratfor Enterprises, LLC (\"Enterprises\") transaction -we will
> ensure that all non-consenting shareholders get adequate disclosure of
> the transactions under DGCL § 228(e)
>
> 3. Stratcap Management, LLC (\"Stratcap\") / Stratcap International
> Consolidated Inc. (\"Stratcap Consolidated\")
>
> \"Second, the scope of the consent granted by the shareholders of
Stratfor Inc. appears to have been limited to SM/Stratfor's investment in
Stratfor, the formation of Enterprises, and the contribution to
Enterprises of the assets of Stratfor Inc., and did not include the
formation of Stratcap, the grant of interests in Stratcap to each of Shea
and George, or the terms of the Services Agreement between Enterprises and
Stratcap (collectively, the \"Stratcap Matters\").  Given the dynamics here,
Steve, Cale and I all agreed that the proper course of action is to seek
the approval of the shareholders of Stratfor Inc. to those transactions,
as well as the formation of Stratcap International Consolidated Inc.
(\"Stratcap Consolidated\") and the participation of George, Don and Shea in
that entity.\"
>
> I can't believe that STRATCAP has never even been granted consent from
the majority of the shareholders? Steve, you suggested otherwise today,
which is correct? Obviously, I am very concerned about recruiting
candidates to move to Austin, who will review all documents, without
shareholder approval of this transaction. This cannot slow our progress!
>
> Thus, we are planning to simultaneously execute all these items
immediately alongside of the S-Corp transaction, which means that we are
including all 65 shareholders in each case so we can properly approve the
ENTERPRISES and STRATCAP transactions executed in August in order to
finalize all related issues by January 31.
>
> Thanks.
>
> --
> Shea Morenz
> Managing Partner
> STRATFOR
> 221 West 6th Street
> Suite 400
> Austin, Texas 78701
>
> shea.morenz@stratfor.com
> Phone: 512.583.7721
> Cell: 713.410.9719
>
> From: Brad Knippa <bknippa@jw.com<mailto:bknippa@jw.com>>
> Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2011 08:33:36 -0600
> To: Brad Knippa <bknippa@jw.com<mailto:bknippa@jw.com>>, Shea Morenz
> <shea.morenz@stratfor.com<mailto:shea.morenz@stratfor.com>>, Don
> Kuykendall <kuykendall@stratfor.com<mailto:kuykendall@stratfor.com>>
> Cc: Stephen Feldhaus <sf@feldhauslaw.com<mailto:sf@feldhauslaw.com>>,
> 'Craig Stamm' <stammwc@gmail.com<mailto:stammwc@gmail.com>>,
> \"McDowell, Cale\" <cmcdowell@jw.com<mailto:cmcdowell@jw.com>>
> Subject: RE: Stratfor/Stratcap Structure Matters
>
> To clarify, the last sentence should state \"Our presumption . . .\"
> Pardon my suspect proof-reading.  BK
>
> _____________________________________________
> From:    Knippa, Brad
> Sent:   Saturday, December 10, 2011 8:28 AM
> To:     Shea Morenz; 'Don Kuykendall'
> Cc:     Stephen Feldhaus; 'Craig Stamm'; McDowell, Cale
> Subject:        Stratfor/Stratcap Structure Matters
>
> Shea and Don,
>
> As we discussed on Thursday, Cale and I had a good, constructive
conversation with Steve Feldhaus regarding some of the fiduciary issues
that we are analyzing in connection with the formation of Stratcap
International Consolidated, LLC (\"Stratcap Consolidated\").
>
> In brief summary, its our understanding that we have arrived on the
following conclusions/recommendations:
>
> A.  Upon the completion of the notice and consent process relating to
the squeeze-out merger/Subchapter S election of Strategic Forecasting,
Inc. (\"Stratfor Inc.\"), the remaining shareholders of Stratfor Inc. should
be provided an update regarding the progress by Stratcap Management, LLC
(\"Stratcap\") regarding fund and investment matters, and concurrently be
provided a comprehensive disclosure document which informs them the terms
upon which Stratcap was formed, will be owned, and will operate before
finalizing the ownership of Stratcap Consolidated.
>
> B.  In the meantime, we can proceed with the formation of the new
Cypriot entity, the execution of the note evidencing Stratcap's obligation
to repay amounts loaned by Shea's entity SM/Stratfor Partners, LLC
(\"SM/Stratfor\"), and the engagement of Sipho, but all under a slightly
revised interim structure (explained below).
>
> C.  We need to confirm that the capitalization of each of Stratcap and
Stratfor Inc. reflects the agreement of the parties, in light of certain
conflicting information we noted in the organizational chart and
underlying documentation JW was provided.
>
> The following discussion expands on the points above:
>
> 1. Prior Shareholder Approvals
>
> From our conversation with Steve and review of documents, it appears
that a majority of the shareholders of Stratfor Inc. received copies of
the Contribution & Subscription Agreement (as amended) and the company
agreement of Stratfor Enterprises, LLC (\"Enterprises\")in connection with
the action by written consent to approve the recent restructuring
transaction.  Assuming that these matters were approved in accordance with
the governing documents of Stratfor Inc. (which we have not yet reviewed),
the restructuring transaction was properly effected and the consenting
shareholders have received proper disclosure of, and have approved,
SM/Stratfor's investment in Stratfor, the formation of Enterprises, and
the contribution to Enterprises of the assets of Stratfor Inc.
>
> This leaves open two items for consideration:
>
> First, the above-referenced consent was not unanimous, which means that
there is a small group of non-consenting shareholders who would not be
estopped from complaining about the reorganization of Stratfor and the
terms of SM/Stratfor's investment. We should consider whether these
non-consenting shareholders received adequate disclosure of the
transactions under DGCL § 228(e).  These concerns are, however, somewhat
mitigated by the fact that the non-consenting shareholders' ownership
interests are small enough that any damages would be limited (and 16 of
them will \"go away\" when the total number of shareholders is reduced from
65 to 49 in the merger transaction).
>
> Second, the scope of the consent granted by the shareholders of Stratfor
Inc. appears to have been limited to SM/Stratfor's investment in Stratfor,
the formation of Enterprises, and the contribution to Enterprises of the
assets of Stratfor Inc., and did not include the formation of Stratcap,
the grant of interests in Stratcap to each of Shea and George, or the
terms of the Services Agreement between Enterprises and Stratcap
(collectively, the \"Stratcap Matters\").  Given the dynamics here, Steve,
Cale and I all agreed that the proper course of action is to seek the
approval of the shareholders of Stratfor Inc. to those transactions, as
well as the formation of Stratcap International Consolidated Inc.
(\"Stratcap Consolidated\") and the participation of George, Don and Shea in
that entity.
>
> 2. Stratcap Consolidated
>
> Given the lack of approval of the Stratcap Matters, we cannot (as we
previously hoped) rely on the percentage interests granted to each of
Enterprises and Stratfor Holdings, LLC (resulting in a combined 22.5%
beneficial interest to the shareholders of Stratfor Inc.) as a model by
which to eliminate any damages suffered by those shareholders in
connection with the Stratcap Matters.  In other words, because the
capitalization of Stratcap has not been ratified by the shareholders of
Stratfor Inc., modeling the capitalization of future entities after
Stratcap affords no protection against claims of self-dealing, breach of
fiduciary duty, etc.  Accordingly, we would be well advised to hold off on
finalizing the formation of Stratcap Consolidated until we are able to
confirm approval of the Stratcap Matters from the shareholders of Stratfor
Inc.
>
> 3. Timing & Interim Solution
>
> We understand that Stratfor Inc. is preparing to send materials to its
shareholders relating to a proposed squeeze-out merger and the election to
treat Stratfor Inc. as a Subchapter S corporation.  Once this has been
completed, Stratfor Inc. will be in a position to approach the remaining
shareholders to request that they approve the Stratcap Matters.  Steve
believes that we would be able to obtain close to 100% approval of the
Stratcap Matters, which would dramatically reduce the fiduciary duty risks
associated with the formation and operation of Stratcap and its related
entities.  These two consecutive approval processes may, however, take us
into January, which necessitates an interim solution.
>
> To that end, we propose to use Stratcap as a surrogate entity until we
are able to obtain shareholder approval of the formation of Stratcap
Consolidated (together with the other Stratcap Matters).  We should be
able to proceed with the formation of the Cypriot entity that was to be a
subsidiary of Stratcap Consolidated as a subsidiary of Stratcap instead.
Using Stratcap as a surrogate would also entail reworking the SM/Stratfor
promissory note to allow Shea's cash advances to go to Stratcap rather
than to Stratcap Consolidated. With regard to Sipho, his consulting
agreement could be set up to belong to the newly formed Cypriot entity
(which we will ultimately move under Stratcap Consolidated).
>
> Note that, though Sipho's consulting agreement provides for the
calculation of his \"performance bonus\" on the basis of 77.5% of
\"distributed cash\" (i.e., distributed cash after subtracting the 22.5%
beneficial interest of Stratfor Inc.), and, as noted above, this 22.5%
figure has been disendowed of its \"magic\" protective status, we see no
purely legal reason that the consulting agreement with Sipho (being an
arms-length transaction) cannot use this figure if it is acceptable to you
from a business perspective.  Of course, whatever terms you agree upon
with Sipho will benefit the owners of Stratcap, and (by extension)
Stratfor Inc., ratably, regardless of the percentage of distributed cash
you agree to make available to Sipho.  The proper percentage to use in
this context is a business question rather than a legal one.
>
> If these interim measures are acceptable, we should be able to move
forward with finalizing the Cypriot entity and the consulting agreement
with Sipho while working on the Stratfor Inc. shareholder approvals in
parallel.
>
> 4. Capitalization
>
> On a more perfunctory note, we need to confirm the capitalization of
Stratcap and Enterprises.  It appears that the percentages reflected on
the organizational chart that we received do exactly tie-out with the
percentages in the ownership documents we reviewed.  The difference are
not material, and they may simply result from the organizational chart's
of approximate percentages, but we want to be sure to nail-town the
precise calculations.
>
> See below for a summary of (i) the percentages reflected on the
organizational chart with respect to each entity, (ii) the number of units
assigned to each member in the respective company agreements, (iii) each
member's non-incentive ownership percentage, based on units held (per
company agreements), and (iv) each member's total ownership percentage
(incentive and non-incentive, assuming no forfeiture), based on units held
(per company agreements).
>
> Stratcap Management LLC
>
> (i)
> Org. Chart
>
> (ii)
> Company Agreement (Units)
>
> (iii)
> Co. Agmt. Percentage (w/o incentive units)
>
> (iv)
> Co. Agmt. Percentage (with incentive units)
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Stratfor Holdings, LLC (Class A Units)
>
> 18%
>
> 180,000
>
> 20.00%
>
> 19.15%
>
> Stratfor Enterprises, LLC (Class A Units)
>
> 5%
>
> 45,000
>
> 5.00%
>
> 4.79%
>
> SM/Stratfor Partners, LLC (Class A Units)
>
> 72%
>
> 630,000
>
> 70.00%
>
> 67.02%
>
> SM/Stratfor Partners, LLC (Series 1 Incentive)
>
> --
>
> 20,000
>
> --
>
> 2.13%
>
> Shea Morenz (Series 2 Incentive)
>
> --
>
> 20,000
>
> --
>
> 2.13%
>
> George Freidman (Class A Units)
>
> 5%
>
> 45,000
>
> 5.00%
>
> 4.79%
>
> TOTAL:
>
> 100%
>
> 940,000
>
> 100.00%
>
> 100.00%
>
>
> Stratfor Enterprises, LLC
>
> Org. Chart
>
> Company Agreement (Units)
>
> Co. Agmt. Percentage (w/o incentive units)
>
> Co. Agmt. Percentage (with incentive units)
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Strategic Forecasting, Inc. (Class A Units)
>
> 90%
>
> 180,000
>
> 90.00%
>
> 81.82%
>
> SM/Stratfor Partners, LLC (Class A Units)
>
> 10%
>
> 20,000
>
> 10.00%
>
> 9.09%
>
> Shea Morenz (Incentive Units)
>
> --
>
> 20,000
>
> --
>
> 9.09%
>
> TOTAL
>
> 100%
>
> 220,000
>
> 100.00%
>
> 100.00%
>
>
> Is are presumption that figures in column (ii) accurately reflect the
deal that was made with respect to Stratcap and Enterprises, and that the
organizational chart should be revised accordingly.  We'll go with this
assumption unless you inform us to the contrary.
>
> Steve, feel free to chime in with any additions and/or corrections.
>
> Thanks.
>
> BK
>
> Bradley S. Knippa, JD, CPA
> Jackson Walker L.L.P.
> 100 Congress Avenue, Suite 1100
> Austin, Texas 78701
> Direct: (512) 236-2284
> Mobile: (512) 431-8336
> Facsimile: (512) 391-2126
> E-mail: bknippa@jw.com<mailto:bknippa@jw.com>
> Web: www.jw.com
>
> This message and any attachments contain privileged and confidential
attorney client information and/or attorney work product exclusively for
intended recipients. Please do not forward or distribute to anyone else.
If you have received this e-mail in error, please call (512) 236-2284 to
report the error then delete this message from your system.  The
statements contained herein are not intended to and do not constitute an
opinion as to any tax or other matter. They are not intended or written to
be used, and may not be relied upon, by you or any other person for the
purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed under any Federal tax
law or otherwise.
>
>
> <27 stratfor - consent of the stockholders of strategic forecasting,
> inc..pdf>
","2011-12-13 18:08:42",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2975424_re-stratfor-stratcap-structure-matters-.html","","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,kuykendall@stratfor.com,sf@feldhauslaw.com,stammwc@gmail.com,bknippa@jw.com,cmcdowell@jw.com",""
2985610,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
","   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart <stewart@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>; Korena Zucha<zucha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>, Alpha List
   <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
","2011-11-18 21:17:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/2985610_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
3016788,"International Deal Structure (Stratcap)
","120","2011-09-29 00:29:15",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3016788_international-deal-structure-stratcap-.html","bknippa@jw.com","","shea.morenz@stratfor.com,JHill@mpwcpa.com,jstephenson@jw.com,asolomon@jw.com,bjanes@jw.com","attach/36/36383_International Deal Structure - Stratcap.pdf"
3179340,"Re: PS - source list
","   On 12/9/11 8:26 AM, Allison Fedirka wrote:

     Hey Renato,

     So 10 Texas time works for Karen.  Can you send us a copy of that list
     between 9 and 930 today so we have time to read it before we meet? 
     Thanks!

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       Hey,

       What time would you two be able to run through real quickly Renato's
       potential source list.  It'd be to know what's available and figure
       out how that coincides with our interests/priorities.  It shouldn't
       take too much time - we could skpe or call or group IM.  Does 10am
       Texas time work?  We'd surely be done before blue sky

     --
     Allison Fedirka
     South America Correspondent
     STRATFOR
     US Cell: +1.512.496.3466 | Brazil Cell: +55.11.9343.7752
     www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Renato Whitaker
 LATAM Analyst
","2011-12-09 16:16:27",1,"2012-03-26 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3179340_re-ps-source-list-.html","renato.whitaker@stratfor.com","","karen.hooper@stratfor.com,allison.fedirka@stratfor.com","attach/139/139758_Potential Sources.docx"
3211641,"Sourcing in Brazil
","   Hey Renato,

   This is a follow up from our chat this afternoon.  It sounds like you're
   already met some interesting people with whom you can build relationships
   and use a military sources.  Remember if you do get chatty with them to
   pass all that through insight (even if you don't agree with what they
   say).  Analysts and discard the information, but just having it also helps
   gives us an idea of what people are thinking and how (regardless if it's
   correct).

   So for moving forward I figured we can do two things.  First, make a list
   of the people you know (or your family can introduce you to) that could be
   potential sources or introduce us to sources.  They can be good for
   information on Brazil or really any part of the world. For example Jen
   sent in some insight about the Vale ship sinking in Rio from China.  There
   are great Ven sources who are profs from Europe. So don't restrict your
   imagination.  Once you have this list, identify what city the person is
   located and their areas of possible knowledge/network.  Send this list to
   me and Karen.  I can help you develop strategies on how to approach them
   and Karen can help prioritize the interest level.  Below is a list of
   interest areas I sent to Folha; it's a good thing for us to follow
   internally for Brazil as well.  This is a short term thing that you can
   hopefully knock out this week or early next.

   Also, on a specific level, I would encourage you to see if there is any
   way you can get involved in the oil sector in Rio.  I know it's easier
   said than done but you are in the perfect place for that.  Perhaps
   Petropras has public talks, RJ state meetings on royalties for the public,
   ANP seminars whatever.  We can also pick a particular target or two and
   try to craft a meeting.   This is a medium range ambition - takes time to
   ID places, find events and/or set up meetings.

   Also, what are your holiday, summer vacation travel plans. If we can maybe
   schedule a week of meetings in Rio (or even Brasilia) sometime after the
   holidays, that would be great.  First we need to see about you and me
   being in the same place at the same time (I\"ll bein Austin for Jan).  Then
   we need to see when people will be in Brazil.  Then plan who we want to
   meet.  Should be fun.  This last point is a longer term projects.

   Hope you're as excited as I am !!!!!

   ECONOMY
   - Brazil's biggest concerns regarding the economic downturn and preferred
   policies to confront it
   - Relationship between the government and the private sector
   - Health of the manufacturing sector
   - Relationship between Vale and China
    - Inflows of Chinese investment/goods and their success/failure
   - Any shifts in regulation that impact foreign investment  
   - Trade disputes with Argentina
   - Updates on major projects being funded by BNDES; political objectives of
   BNDES

   PRE-SALT
   - Any labor issues with Petrobras workers
   - New investment plans in pre-salt
   - Updates on Petrobras' access to capital  and plans to deal with economic
   slow-down
   INFRASTRUCTURE
   - Port modernization projects
   - Transportation networks in the interior
   - Airport expansion, modernization projects

   DEFENSE
   - Military exercises along the border
   - Treaties, cooperation and dialog with border countries to coordinate
   anti-drug fight
   - Shifts in military spending

   BRAZILIAN POLITICS
   - Jan cabinet reshuffle, important votes
   - Shifts in Dilma's levels of political support
   - Developments in major laws going through the legislature, especially
   regulatory
   --
   Allison Fedirka
   South America Correspondent
   STRATFOR
   US Cell: +1.512.496.3466 A| Brazil Cell: +55.11.9343.7752
   www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-12-07 21:09:24",1,"2012-03-26 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3211641_sourcing-in-brazil-.html","allison.fedirka@stratfor.com","","karen.hooper@stratfor.com,renato.whitaker@stratfor.com",""
3312547,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-11 13:59:34",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3312547_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
3316669,"Re: [latam] Fwd: CUBA/VENEZUELA/CT-Nuevo Herald obtains
 intelligence document showing Cuban surveillance of opposition figures
","   Somewhere in-between, definitely. Then again, most intelligence services
   fall in between those two choices! :) Yes, Chavez most decidedly ok'd the
   endeavor. The current intelligence service is called the SEBIN (Servicio
   de Inteligencia Bolivariano). The one referred to in the article is DIM
   (Direccion de Inteligencia Militar) which is separate, that's military
   intelligence, but I'm pretty sure that now they share assets and people.
   The Venezuelan intelligence capacities received a pretty huge boost after
   Chavez allied himself with Cuba because Cuba provided tons of training,
   personnel and intelligence equipment. That's why Chavez is so indebted to
   Cuba...his regime more or less can see plots coming and can keep tabs on
   the opposition because of the sheer amount of Cubans involved in
   intelligence-gathering. The intelligence collecting is also pretty open,
   as evidenced by the article, when the former interior minister openly
   showed intercepted emails at press conferences. The key thing to remember
   is that SEBIN would never have been so effective (domestically at least)
   had it not been for the Cubans. If the Cubans ever choose to pull
   cooperation, Chavez better grow some intelligence capabilities quick,
   because otherwise he'll get screwed.

   -----------------
   Reginald Thompson

   Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741

   OSINT
   Stratfor

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Renato Whitaker\" <renato.whitaker@stratfor.com>
   To: \"LatAm AOR\" <latam@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2011 6:42:14 PM
   Subject: Re: [latam] Fwd: CUBA/VENEZUELA/CT-Nuevo Herald obtains
   intelligence document showing Cuban surveillance of opposition figures

   I've heard a story or two about the Cuban intelligence service. On a scale
   of the Namibian Intelligence Service to the CIA, how good are they?

   Also, seems that those being followed are mostly opposition people, so
   safe to say Chavez ok'd the endevour?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Reginald Thompson\" <reginald.thompson@stratfor.com>
   To: \"LatAm AOR\" <latam@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, June 16, 2011 8:11:49 PM
   Subject: [latam] Fwd: CUBA/VENEZUELA/CT-Nuevo Herald obtains intelligence
   document showing Cuban surveillance of opposition figures

   Cubanos realizan espionaje digital en Venezuela

   http://www.elnuevoherald.com/2011/06/15/962107/cubanos-realizan-espionaje-digital.html

   6.16.11

   Los correos electrA^3nicos de miles de venezolanos en su paAs y en Miami
   son leAdos por especialistas de la inteligencia cubana, que tienen acceso
   a las direcciones, claves secretas y hasta los nA-omeros de Protocolo de
   Internet (IP) de las computadoras, segA-on se desprende de una lista de la
   DirecciA^3n de Inteligencia Militar (DIM) de Venezuela obtenida por El
   Nuevo Herald.

   Una parte significativa de los correos intervenidos pertenecen a
   activistas, periodistas, militares, diplomA!ticos venezolanos en el
   extranjero y conocidos lAderes de oposiciA^3n.

   La lista, elaborada entre el 2005 y el 2006, contiene los correos
   electrA^3nicos con sus respectivas claves secretas de prominentes
   dirigentes polAticos, incluyendo al candidato presidencial Antonio
   Ledezma, el ex gobernador Osvaldo Alvarez Paz y la diputada MarAa Corina
   Machado.

   TambiA(c)n aparecen los correos de militares retirados y personalidades
   venezolanas en Miami.

   a**Esto es normal. Ellos controlan todo esoa**, dijo el ex comisario de la
   antigua DirecciA^3n de Servicios de Inteligencia y PrevenciA^3n (DISIP),
   Johan PeA+-a, quien reside en Miami. a**Estas operaciones son realizadas
   desde las instalaciones de la DIM, pero son completamente controladas por
   cubanosa**.

   La lista contiene algunas direcciones electrA^3nicas que ya han sido
   cambiadas por sus dueA+-os. Sin embargo, seA+-alA^3 PeA+-a, la base de
   datos es actualizada con regularidad y la informaciA^3n en manos de los
   organismos de inteligencia bajo el control de los gobiernos de Caracas y
   La Habana es hoy en dAa mucho mayor de lo que aparece en la lista.

   El nombre del periodista venezolano Rafael Poleo, dueA+-o del diario El
   Nuevo PaAs y de la revista Zeta, no estA! en el listado obtenido por El
   Nuevo Herald, pero un correo electrA^3nico dirigido a su hija, Patricia
   Poleo, fue interceptado y publicado recientemente en un sitio de internet
   oficialista.

   a**Esto es normal [a*|]. En Venezuela, todos los correos electrA^3nicos de
   la oposiciA^3n estA!n siendo monitoreados por el gobiernoa**, comentA^3
   Poleo, quien dijo haber sido informado sobre esta situaciA^3n por la
   a**mejor fuente venezolanaa**.

   PeA+-a seA+-alA^3 que aA-on cuando estas actividades inicialmente fueron
   realizadas por integrantes de la DIM, en los A-oltimos aA+-os la tarea ha
   quedado concentrada en manos de agentes cubanos.

   Estas operaciones son realizadas actualmente con la mA!s costosa y moderna
   tecnologAa y estA!n bajo el absoluto control del personal de La Habana.

   a**Es obviamente un tema bastante delicado, incluso dentro del propio
   gobierno, que esta labor estA(c) siendo manejada por cubanos, pero la
   verdad es que funcionarios de inteligencia venezolanos no tienen acceso a
   los pisos donde se tienen estos equiposa**, revelA^3.

   AA+-adiA^3 que la decisiA^3n de traspasar esta tarea a los agentes de La
   Habana habrAa nacido de la determinaciA^3n de que el personal venezolano
   era incapaz de mantener secreta la informaciA^3n recaudada.

   Un gran nA-omero de los correos electrA^3nicos que aparecen en la lista
   fueron registrados por sus dueA+-os en populares servicios de internet
   como Yahoo, Hotmail y Gmail.

   No todos los correos electrA^3nicos que aparecen estA!n acompaA+-ados con
   el respectivo nA-omero de IP de las computadoras de sus dueA+-os, pero
   cientos de ellos sA, lo cual facilita un mejor espionaje electrA^3nico.

   Patricia Andrade, presidenta de la Venezuela Awareness Foundation, en
   Miami, aparece en la lista.

   La organizaciA^3n que encabeza vela por los derechos humanos dentro del
   paAs petrolero y sus correos electrA^3nicos fueron interceptados en varias
   ocasiones por funcionarios del gobierno de Hugo ChA!vez, quienes trataron
   de hacer uso de la informaciA^3n recogida con el fin de desacreditarla.

   En el 2006, esos esfuerzos fueron encabezados por el entonces ministro de
   Interior y Justicia, Jesse ChacA^3n, quien admitiA^3 pA-oblicamente que la
   organizaciA^3n era blanco de espionaje electrA^3nico.

   a**El propio ChacA^3n dijo en una rueda de prensa que tenAa todos los
   correros electrA^3nicos interceptados y, no contento con eso, se los
   mostrA^3 a los periodistasa**, dijo Andrade.

   El intento fue torpe, comentA^3 Andrade al destacar que el ministro estaba
   brindando muestras de violaciones a los derechos civiles de los
   venezolanos.

   El listado de correos intervenidos tambiA(c)n incluye a los del Secretario
   Ejecutivo de la Mesa de Unidad DemocrA!tica (MUD), en Miami, Pedro Mena,
   quien dijo no estar sorprendido por el hecho.

   a**Hemos sido vActimas de varios intentos del gobierno por infiltrar
   nuestras actividadesa**, comentA^3 Mena. a**No es de extraA+-ar que
   estemos en esa lista, es uno de los precios que hay que pagar en la lucha
   por la democracia y la libertad en Venezuelaa**.

   Read more:
   http://www.elnuevoherald.com/2011/06/15/962107/cubanos-realizan-espionaje-digital.html#ixzz1PU266bzW
   -----------------
   Reginald Thompson

   Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741

   OSINT
   Stratfor
","2011-06-17 01:47:51",1,"2012-04-02 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3316669_re-latam-fwd-cuba-venezuela-ct-nuevo-herald-obtains.html","reginald.thompson@stratfor.com","mailto:latam@stratfor.com","latam@stratfor.com",""
3355023,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged \"Anonymous\" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise \"anonymous\"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
","2011-11-10 19:47:39",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3355023_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
3355217,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
","   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-17 14:01:00",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3355217_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
3373596,"Fwd: [alpha] INSIGHT - INDONESIA - Freeport - CN65
","   Response from source CN65:  disagree.  I don't know what the figures are
   for this mine, but if that is what they have forward sold, then it equates
   to only 12.5 days production.  This means they are unlikely be under much
   pressure.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Alfredo Viegas\" <alfredo.viegas@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Benjamin Preisler\" <ben.preisler@stratfor.com>
     Cc: \"Melissa Taylor\" <melissa.taylor@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Friday, September 16, 2011 7:15:35 AM
     Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - INDONESIA - Freeport - CN65

     As of June reporting - Freeport had 55 million pounds of copper sold
     forward, most of which was due for delivery by end August.  Uncertain if
     they would roll these contracts, but maybe they did, but that is only
     about $200mn impact.   Meanwhile back in July the Indonesia workers went
     on strike for 8 days and this cost Freeport 35 million pounds of lost
     copper production and 60,000 oz of lost gold.   Hence, I think we can
     see that if this strike goes on for a long while it can quickly add up
     in terms of lost production

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Benjamin Preisler\" <ben.preisler@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Friday, September 16, 2011 7:45:27 AM
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - INDONESIA - Freeport - CN65

     **I have another new Indo source I want to test out on this issue and I
     can also go back to this source.  What are some specifics we're looking
     at?  This source is sending in an interesting question, not really
     insight.  We need to see if we can find out more.

     SOURCE: CN65
     ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
     natural resources
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: Not really insight but direction
     DISTRO: Alpha + Invest
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

     Dear Jen,
     In case you haven't heard:

       Freeport Weighs Grasberg Strike Impact on Output, Shipments
       Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. is
       assessing the
       impact on production and deliveries at its Grasberg copper and gold
       mine in
       Indonesia after the union said 70 percent of workers started a
       one-month strike
       last night. About 8,000 employees at Grasberg, excluding workers from
       contractors, joined the strike that started at midnight to demand wage
       increases,
       Juli Parorrongan, a labor union spokesman, said today. Freeport miners
       are also
       striking in Peru. We are disappointed that union workers decided to
       implement an
       illegal work stoppage, said Ramdani Sirait, a PT Freeport Indonesia
       spokesman,
       in a statement. The company has negotiated in a diligent good-faith
       manner with
       union representatives to reach a mutually satisfactory agreement.
       Grasberg has
       the worlds largest recoverable reserves of copper and the biggest
       single gold
       reserve, according to the Freeport website. Workers in Peru, Chile,
       Bolivia and
       Indonesia have gone on strike at copper, gold and zinc mines this
       year, seeking
       improved conditions and a bigger slice of record profits after metal
       prices more
       than doubled since the end of 2008. Copper for three-month delivery
       advanced as
       much as 1.1 percent to $8,727 a metric ton on the London Metal
       Exchange today and
       traded at $8,647.75 a ton. Strikes at Grasberg in Papua province 1,940
       miles
       (3,120 kilometers) east of Jakarta, and in Peru may widen a global
       shortage of
       copper estimated at 670,000 metric tons this year by Barclays Capital
       and boost
       prices of the metal.

     The issue on this is how much of Freeport's production is forward sold?
      If they have not forward sold much, then there is not a huge amount of
     pressure, since prices will rise, and so marginal profits will increase,
     marginally offsetting losses on fixed capital.  if they have forward
     sold their production, then there will be greater issues, and the
     company will be under more pressure, unless the contracts have a force
     majeure clause covering strikes.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3373596_fwd-alpha-insight-indonesia-freeport-cn65-.html","melissa.taylor@stratfor.com","","richmond@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com,kendra.vessels@stratfor.com,alfredo.viegas@stratfor.com",""
3387123,"Write up on Venezuela, Chavez
","   Hi Alfredo, 

   Here is a write-up that our Latam analyst, Karen, did this week for
   another project. I have invited Karen to join our call on Monday to
   discuss Venezuela and Chavez. She would also like to discuss Argentina
   briefly if that's possible. 

   Best, 

   Kendra

   VENEZUELA

   Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has built around himself a personalized
   system of governance that requires his specific oversight and involvement.
   Furthermore, he has built up a system of political support structures that
   are mutually adversarial, to disincentivize his removal. We therefore
   consider the removal of Chavez to be an event that would significantly
   destabilize the country. The key pillars of support are (in order of
   importance): Public support, oil production and sales, the military, the
   Bolivarian peasant militias and access to the Cuban intelligence system.

    

   I. Popular Support

   The first pillar of support is of course popular acceptance of the
   Venezuelan government. Despite the highly centralized nature of Venezuelan
   governments throughout history, they inevitably serve at the pleasure of
   the masses. Even the military dares only to overthrow the government in
   times of extreme delegitimization of the elected or appointed political
   elite. To understand why Chaveza**s popularity and political strength
   endure despite the serious challenges facing Venezuela, it is necessary to
   remember the circumstances that led to his rise to power.

    

   Surging income from the oil-price spikes of the 1970s and early 1980s led
   to economic instability throughout the next two decades. Caracas moved to
   rapidly expand government expenditures in order to satisfy the populist
   demands of an underdeveloped country. This spending brought about a steep
   rise in corruption and spiraling inflation. Venezuela attempted to correct
   these imbalances through neoliberal reforms, including eliminating
   subsidies and raising taxes. The most damaging response to the new
   policies was the1989 riots a** known as the a**Caracazoa** a** which were
   triggered by a rise in the price of gasoline. The riots left nearly 300
   people dead in Caracas.

    

   Shortly thereafter Chavez, a young lieutenant colonel, entered the
   national spotlight during a failed coup attempt. Well-spoken and
   charismatic even in defeat, Chavez made an impression at a time when the
   Venezuelan political system was clearly breaking down. After Chavez was
   released from prison, he was able to seek leadership of the country again
   a** this time through the elections that brought him to Miraflores in
   1999. Chavez appeared at a pivotal time and was able to move on from his
   mistakes and seek power democratically. As a leader, he satisfies
   Venezuelaa**s need for a strong central figure capable of reining in
   factions competing for power. Chavez also appeals on a very personal level
   to swaths of the population who identify with his persona and with
   policies that place poverty at the forefront of the national agenda.

    

   Much more important than his personal appeal or even his ability to manage
   the various needs of competing factions, is his commitment to populist
   policies that focus on the redistribution of wealth to the poor. Food
   distribution in poor areas along with free health care and housing are key
   ways that Chavez seeks to maintain popular appeal. So far, Chavez remains
   the most popular politician in the country, with his approval rating
   hovering around and generally over 50 percent. However, there is cause for
   serious concern for his long-term popularity in light of a number of
   challenges, including consistently high inflation, food shortages,
   electricity failures and a number of highly publicized failures in
   implementing social projects.

    

   The government consistently makes moves to reform economic policies in an
   attempt to control for market distortions and cut back government
   spending. So far, there has been no strong backlash to price hikes on
   basic goods, but it is a hot button issue. Gasoline is a particularly
   critical good that the government fears to raise the price on, despite the
   booming black market with Colombia that means that a huge portion of
   Venezuelaa**s subsidized gasoline is sold at high profits across the
   border in Colombia. The fear is that a hike on gasoline could cause
   another Caracazo, so instead of raising prices, the government is
   attempting

    

   Venezuelans are not shy about protesting, and protests are on the rise. If
   the number of protests by everything from the political opposition to
   labor unions so far in 2011 is anything to go by (and therea**s nothing to
   suggest that this will decline), 2011 will experience the highest number
   of protests since Chavez took power. This is somewhat deceptive, as the
   efficacy of unrest is rests more in the size and duration of the protests
   than in the strict quantity of events. Nevertheless, the rise in unrest
   and general dissatisfaction among organizations all across the political
   spectrum is an indicator that problems in the Venezuelan economic and
   political system are having a broad impact.

    

   II. Oil

   The second pillar of support is oil production. With the discovery of oil
   in Venezuela in the early 20th century the county became immediately and
   almost entirely focused on its production. Though the post WWII period
   until the mid to late 1990s, the economy diversified to a degree, using
   oil money to finance development of secondary industries such as steel and
   food production. With the rise to power of Hugo Chavez and the subsequent
   coup in 2002 that involved the upper level management of PDVSA, Chavez
   crippled the company by firing most of the higher level and technically
   skilled staff. Since that time, oil production in Venezuela has been on a
   long slow decline. Oil production dropped 25 percent from a high of 3.2
   million barrels per day (bpd) in 2001 to an estimated 2.4 million bpd in
   2010.

    

   However, the decline in production volumes is a result of a decline in new
   exploration and production, as well as a deterioration of production
   capacity at extant oil producing facilities. Furthermore, the oil mix in
   Venezuela has become heavier and sourer as reserves in the Maracaibo
   region decline, and the Orinoco deposits become more important.  This
   quality of deposit requires greater levels of investment, greater
   commitment from investors and a higher risk level. Already risky operating
   environment, Venezuela in its current state is unlikely to receive
   investments from technically skilled (read: Western) oil companies that
   are necessary to boost production.

    

   Though Chinese companies have shown an interest in both maintenance/repair
   contracts as well as drilling contracts, it is not at all clear that they
   possess the technological capacity to develop Venezuelaa**s geographically
   and technically challenging deposits. Furthermore, the Chinse arena**t in
   it for charity, and are also wary of the risks associated with very
   serious Venezuelan investments.

    

   Without serious and technologically adept investment worth tens of
   billions of dollars, the industry faces a slow and inevitable decline. 

    

   This ongoing decline is in part compensated for by the fact that prices
   have more than quadrupled since 2001. Government revenues remain heavily
   dependent on oil income to fund its activities. The nominal budgetary
   reliance on oil income is 22 percent. However, a series of slush funds
   into which oil money is funneled directly from PDVSA and from which
   discretionary spending is non-transparent belie the official stats. These
   expenditures have shot up and over the annual planned budget over the past
   several years as the government seeks to use cash transfers to mitigate
   income disparities and market distortions. Borrowing has increased
   alongside the use of oil revenues. So far in 2011, the national debt
   increased by 10 percent to about $85 billion. While debt remains quite
   manageable, the pattern of behavior suggests that any shock to
   Venezuelaa**s income levels could severely destabilize government
   spending, social programs, economic stability and Chaveza**s popularity.

    

   In the event of a destabilization scenario, any potential Venezuelan
   leader has an incentive to maintain stability and output in the oil
   sector. However, the danger to the physical assets the oil industry owns
   will come in the form of potential widespread infighting and unrest. Oil
   installations make for obvious targets for militancy, and oil output, as
   Venezuela's only real asset, is the real prize to be won in any struggle
   for control over the country. Also, strikes and labor struggles that
   impact the oil industry cannot be ruled out if a power struggle ensues in
   Caracas. From a security standpoint, any destabilization of the government
   that involves unrest or violence would be a direct threat to personnel on
   the ground.

    

   There are other threats to the industry that will result from even a
   slight escalation of the ongoing economic and political struggles in the
   country. The lack of investment in PDVSA will be exacerbated if Chavez is
   forced to spend more money on ensuring the loyalty of the populace, the
   military and his inner circle. This trend is already worsening even as
   output declines. In 2009, PDVSA contributed 93 percent of its income to
   the government through various taxes, grants and deposits into government
   accounts. In 2010, that amount increased to 97 percent of net income. The
   margin of error is shrinking for PDVSA, and the company's well-documented
   decline in technical capacity will be exacerbated as finances become even
   tighter. Though we do not necessarily expect the recent release of
   strategic oil reserves to have a significant or long-term effect on oil
   prices, any severe fluctuations in either oil price or oil output would
   hit the government hard.

    

   III. The Military

   As the main proprietor of Venezuelaa**s weaponry, the military is a
   critical consideration in any destabilization scenario. The military has
   been involved in three failed coups since 1992. In each case, elements of
   the military either sought to generate an upwelling of public support for
   regime change, or were attempting to capitalize on already extant unrest.

    

   The military is unlikely to do anything but support (at the very least by
   refusing to become involved) the current government until a complete
   destabilization scenario. Even in times of unrest, the military will stand
   back from conflict until it is certain the current government has lost
   legitimacy. Should Chavez fail to return, or return but be unable to
   control the situation in-country, the military will be in a position to
   either support one of the power brokers of Chavez's inner circle or put
   forward its own representative.

    

   However, the military cannot be considered a unified force. The past three
   coup attempts failed in part because there was not enough political
   support for a change in government and the military itself was not united
   behind the effort. It is therefore possible that elements within the
   military could miscalculate, moving before Chavez has lost full
   legitimacy. In this scenario, clashes between different military factions
   should not be ruled out.

    

   IV. The Militias

   Built as a tool to counterbalance the military, the Bolivarian militias.
   Organized around neighborhoods throughout Venezuelan cities and in the
   countryside, the Bolivarian militias are Chavez's insurance policy against
   a military coup. By arming citizens, Chavez has made any direct action
   against the government more uncertain and has increased the chances that
   any threat to his government will trigger widespread violence. Adan Chavez
   raised the threat of these militias when he quoted Ernesto \"Che\" Guevarra
   on June 26, saying, \"It would be inexcusable to limit ourselves to only
   the electoral and not see other forms of struggle, including the armed
   struggle.\" There are, however, some limits to the ability of these
   militias. The military has maintained strict control over the weapons used
   by the militias in practice. It is not known at this point if the militias
   have access to alternative sources of weaponry.

    

   V. Cuban Intelligence

   Cuba plays a critical role in keeping Chavez in power by serving as an
   outside and loyal observer of political affairs in Venezuela. Using the
   intelligence assets of an outside player with a key interest in keeping
   cheap oil flowing has helped Chavez maneuver carefully and manage a
   potentially poisonous domestic political situation in exchange for
   Venezuelan oil shipments to subsidize the islanda**s economy. Though the
   Cubans will be willing to deal with whoever is in power, the natural
   ideological tint to any relationship between Venezuela and Cuba means that
   the Cubans could well lose their petroleum lifeline should a more
   pragmatic domestic player such as Cabello take power or should the country
   fall into chaos. Any diminished commitment from Cuba to protecting the
   personal interests of Chavez could severely cripple the Venezuelan leader.
   With that said, there would have to be a complete regime change in Cuba
   for that to happen. There is enough continuity built into the Cuban
   government, which has kept most of the old guard in power despite the
   handoff to Raul. Chavez should be able to count on a continued commitment
   to his regime and the oil it delivers.

    

   The Illness

   Chavez is reportedly undergoing his third phase of chemotherapy, this time
   in Caracas. Though he claims he is already cured and the chemotherapy is
   preventive, his condition appears to be more serious than he is letting
   on. One source claims Chavez has stage 4 prostatic cancer that has spread
   to his anus (hence the claims of colon cancer). The prognosis his Cuban
   medical team has reportedly given Chavez is a 50 percent chance of
   surviving another two years if his treatment is limited to the medical
   team in Cuba and Cuban facilities while his survival expectancy could be
   four years with Western technology and medical care. Russia has offered
   its medical team and services to Chavez, and there have been some hints in
   open-source media of Russian doctors joining Chaveza**s medical team.

    

   The Succession

   There is no clear line of succession in Venezuela. No politician in
   Venezuela has the credibility with the populace or political clout of
   Chavez. This is both because Chavez is in himself a unique leader and also
   because he has undermined and outright sabotaged opponents and potential
   opponents. As a result of this fact, the fact of Chaveza**s illness brings
   the stability of the regime into serious question. General elections are
   scheduled for the last half of 2012, and there are rumors that Chavez may
   seek to push the elections up earlier. In a best-case scenario that takes
   into account this prognosis, Chavez either picks and promotes a successor
   to win the election in 2012 or he wins the elections and appoints a VP
   that could credibly succeed him. In the event that Chavez chooses a
   competent successor, s/he would still have to manage an economic situation
   that is volatile at best, and further destabilization is likely,
   particularly if the government loses control of the factions w/in the
   political elite.

    

   There are two worst case scenarios, both of which are quite possible. In
   the first scenario, Chavez dies or is disabled without having appointed a
   competent successor. In this scenario, a political fight will ensue among
   the various factions. The military will attempt to gain control, but
   Chaveza**s militia may find the strength and arms to fight back. In this
   case, a scenario where American citizens in Venezuela would need to be
   evacuated is likely. A second destabilization scenario would be economic
   in nature. A sudden downward shift in oil prices would destabilize the
   governmenta**s social programs, spark an economic collapse, and provoke
   widespread civil unrest.

    

   Forecast: While there remain many layers of control over stability in
   Venezuela, a confluence of factors has weakened the country along economic
   and political lines. Given his illness, the death or disabling of Hugo
   Chavez is a serious possibility in the next three years. A sudden decline
   in oil prices triggered by a global recession, which is somewhat less
   likely but not at all impossible would also cause a collapse of social
   outreach programs and thus the social stability. With these factors
   combined, there is a high likelihood of severe social destabilization in
   Venezuela over the next three years that woudl require the evacuation of
   American citizens and cause a cessation of oil exports to Cuba.
","2011-09-15 21:31:16",1,"2012-03-15 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3387123_write-up-on-venezuela-chavez-.html","kendra.vessels@stratfor.com","","zucha@stratfor.com,melissa.taylor@stratfor.com,alfredo.viegas@stratfor.com",""
3392735,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
","   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marc Lanthemann\" <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-14 20:55:23",1,"2012-02-28 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3392735_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
3433718,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
","   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart <stewart@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>; Korena Zucha<zucha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>, Alpha List
   <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
","2011-11-18 21:17:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3433718_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
3434642,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged \"Anonymous\" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise \"anonymous\"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
","2011-11-10 19:47:39",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3434642_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
3438302,"FW: CIA head of analysis fired
","I wanted to forward these comments from George to the entire team so that
everyone at Stratfor is aware of the incredible opportunity/challenge we are
faced with. 

Iser 

-----Original Message-----
From: George Friedman [mailto:gfriedman@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Wednesday, December 29, 2004 9:13 AM
To: analysts@stratfor.com; exec@stratfor.com
Subject: CIA head of analysis fired

Jamie Miscik, Deputy Director of Intelligence at the CIA was fired today. As
DDI, she ran the analytic shop. According to media reports, she was fired
for squandering resources on day to day reports while ignoring the broad
trends. In other words, she was fired for looking at the trees and being
unable to see the forest. She was also accused of spending too much time
updating policy makers and too little time trying to grasp the broad
trends--giving customers what they wanted instead of what they needed. In
the end, it was her customers that turned on her.
My charge against her was and remains that she took no pride in her craft
and turned intelligence into PR and shoddy process. She and her gang are now
history.

This gives Stratfor an enormous, historic opportunity. The CIA model of
analysis has been invalidated. The ponderous, process driven machine that
could only manage the small things now needs to be replaced by a robust,
visionary, courageous analytic system. Stratfor has the opportunity to show
the way. In fact, we are showing the way. Everyone in Langley knows that we
do things they have never been able to do with a small fraction of their
resources. They have always asked how we did it. We can now show them and
maybe they can learn.

Our annual and decade forecast will, I guarantee you, be read by everyone at
the CIA. They are looking for new models and they are looking at us. Every
ounce of excellence that Stratfor owns will go into those two pieces. This
will not only be good business, it will serve our country. They will be a
road map to the craft of intelligence.

Allan Dulles said that intelligence was a craft. It is not a mass production
line. The architects of misbegotten process in intelligence have failed and
are out. It is our chance to step to the plate. It's a rare moment and I
want everyone in intelligence to take a break from working to think, dream
and imagine. This is our chance to do it right. 

It is Stratfor's chance to make intelligence history and build a major
business at the same time. It is a moment I have been waiting for--and knew
was coming--since 1996, when George Tenet was appointed DCI and Stratfor was
founded. I, for one, am going to show them how it's done. I invite each of
you to join me. This, ladies and gentlemen, is it.
","2004-12-29 16:54:06",1,"2012-02-27 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3438302_fw-cia-head-of-analysis-fired-.html","iser@stratfor.com","","allstratfor@stratfor.com",""
3451573,"L's email for 2nd 09 trip
","7","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3451573_l-s-email-for-2nd-09-trip-.html","mooney@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com","attach/142/142381_Research Center Victor Voksanaeva.doc
attach/142/142382_Social Systems Institute.doc
attach/142/142383_Goodrich.pdf
attach/142/142384_IISEPS.doc
attach/142/142385_Russian Research Sources.doc
attach/142/142386_November09.pdf
attach/142/142387_Institute for Economies in Transition.doc
attach/142/142388_Insitute of Far Eastern Studies Russian Academy of Sciences.doc
attach/142/142389_Lauren Goodrich Voucher.pdf
attach/142/142390_confirmation_pick upGoodrich.pdf
attach/142/142391_IMEMO.doc
attach/142/142392_image001.jpg
attach/142/142393_INVOICE  USD for Lauren Goodrich.pdf
attach/142/142394_Payment agreem.doc
attach/142/142395_result.pdf
attach/142/142396_Russian Institute of Strategic Studies.doc
attach/142/142397_Kazakhstan Groups.doc
attach/142/142398_Institute for Political and Military Analysis.doc"
3452194,"Insight - Blowback  ** internal use only ** 
","   A very good source just informed me that extremely quiet discussions are
   underway between DHS and the FBI on the blowback to the Jewish community,
   facilities, synagogues, day-cares, et al in the United States, in the
   event of an Israeli strike on Iran.   
    
   Note --
    
   From my lips to your ears.  I would imagine that my good friend BB
   Netanyahu told Obama what the Sword of Gideon has in store for the Iranian
   menace.  I also have it on good word that BB trusts Obama about as much as
   he trusted Arafat or Waddi Haddad. 
","2009-11-10 23:15:19",1,"2012-03-27 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3452194_insight-blowback-internal-use-only-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
3452549,"Re: ATTN: Mail Server outage from 5:30p CDT (roughly) till 8pm CDT
 - No data loss, just delayed email delivery during the outage
","Nope physical failure.  One dead network switch.

On 1/13/10 20:58 , Fred Burton wrote:
> ChiCom attack?   
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Michael Mooney [mailto:mooney@stratfor.com] 
> Sent: Wednesday, January 13, 2010 8:56 PM
> To: allstratfor@stratfor.com
> Subject: ATTN: Mail Server outage from 5:30p CDT (roughly) till 8pm CDT - No
> data loss, just delayed email delivery during the outage
>
> Due to a hardware failure at the server facility mail service was
> interrupted for STRATFOR employees for a window of time this evening.
>
> The offending hardware, a network switch, has been replaced.
>
> No mail was lost, and any mail that you sent during the outage will deliver
> successfully.
>
> Sincerely,
> Michael Mooney
>
>
>
>   
","2010-01-14 04:02:39",1,"2012-03-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3452549_re-attn-mail-server-outage-from-5-30p-cdt-roughly-till-8pm.html","mooney@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
3454924,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
","   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-17 14:01:00",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3454924_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
3464416,"Re: Encryption Guidance
","   Is this what you are thinking? Does it need to be more detailed? What
   types of content am I missing?

   PGP should be emphasized and enforced for all executives and other
   employees designated by their supervisors. Content that fits into the
   following categories should be encrypted although this list is not
   all-inclusive. Should there be any doubt about whether something you are
   writing should be encrypted, err on the side of caution and encrypt it
   anyway.
   o    Company financial data, to include budgets and forecasts
   o    Certain client names and related contract details as deemed necessary
   by Meredith Friedman and Beth Bronder. Note that the use of code names,
   which will also be determined by Meredith and Beth along with  the
   Briefers, is not a replacement for using PGP.
   o    Sensitive personnel information, to include salaries and
   health-related information 
   o    Sensitive sourcing insight. For any questions about which of your
   sources may fit into this category, please contact Stick.
   o    CEO travel itinerary, including flight and hotel information and
   dates of travel
   o    Sensitive executive-level discussions

   On 10/11/2010 8:58 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

 Korena, Would you have time to tackle a draft ?

 scott stewart wrote:

 IT doesn't have to be super long, but we should tell people that we
 need to use encryption whenever we are dealing with very sensitive
 insight, client information, etc. and maybe provide a couple notional
 examples.

 *From:* burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
 *Sent:* Monday, October 11, 2010 8:33 AM
 *To:* Scott Stewart; 'Korena Zucha'
 *Cc:* Michael D. Mooney; Korena Zucha; Anya Alfano
 *Subject:* Re: Encryption Guidance

 Suggestions?

 I know PGP doesn't work on lists.

 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

 ------------------------------------------------------------------------

 *From: *\"scott stewart\" <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>

 *Date: *Mon, 11 Oct 2010 08:17:45 -0400

 *To: *'Korena Zucha'<zucha@stratfor.com>; <burton@stratfor.com>

 *Cc: *'Michael D. Mooney'<mooney@stratfor.com>; 'Korena
 Zucha'<korena.zucha@stratfor.com>; 'Anya Alfano'<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>

 *Subject: *RE: Encryption Guidance

 We need detailed guidance for our employees.

 *From:* Korena Zucha [mailto:zucha@stratfor.com]
 *Sent:* Monday, October 11, 2010 12:06 AM
 *To:* burton@stratfor.com
 *Cc:* Michael D. Mooney; Scott Stewart; Korena Zucha; Anya Alfano
 *Subject:* Re: Encryption Guidance

 It was included in the security recs doc but was very top level. What
 else do we need?

 PGP should be emphasized and enforced for all executives and other
 designated employees. This should be applied for all employees dealing
 with all things sensitive, financial, client-related (scope of work
 and financial), CEO travel, and other executive-level sensitive
 discussions as deemed necessary.

 On 10/10/2010 1:09 PM, burton@stratfor.com
 <mailto:burton@stratfor.com> wrote:

 We need to send out guidance on when to use encryption.
 
 Believe we did that not to long ago? 
 
 
 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2010-10-11 20:46:41",1,"2012-03-01 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3464416_re-encryption-guidance-.html","zucha@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,mooney@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,anya.alfano@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
3481100,"RE: Fwd: PGP Quote and killing the STRATFOR communication encryptionissues with a big stick
","Because it would make it a lot harder. Why do you have locks on you doors a=
nd an alarm system in my home even though they would not stop a serious thi=
ef?  Why not just leave the keys in your Hummer?=20=20



-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]=20
Sent: Sunday, April 25, 2010 7:03 PM
To: Michael Mooney
Cc: Scott Stewart
Subject: Re: Fwd: PGP Quote and killing the STRATFOR communication encrypti=
onissues with a big stick

I don't see the Americans getting our folks killed.=20=20

I see the Chinese shutting us down one day.

If we assume we are compromised, why should we complicate business?

-----Original Message-----
From: Michael Mooney <mooney@stratfor.com>
Date: Sun, 25 Apr 2010 18:00:52=20
To: <burton@stratfor.com>
Cc: Scott Stewart<scott.stewart@stratfor.com>
Subject: Re: Fwd: PGP Quote and killing the STRATFOR communication encrypti=
on
 issues with a big stick

You left out the American's. But I suppose that is such a given it's not
worth mentioning.

On 4/25/10 17:54 , Fred Burton wrote:
> I think its reasonable to assume the Chinese, Russians, Israelis and Hezb=
ollah have access to our site, so I'm wondering why we should go down any e=
ncryption route?   If we assume our comms are compromised, would PGP make a=
 difference?=20=20=20
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: \"Michael D. Mooney\" <mooney@stratfor.com>
> Date: Sun, 25 Apr 2010 13:51:13=20
> To: Fred Burton<burton@stratfor.com>
> Subject: Fwd: PGP Quote and killing the STRATFOR communication encryption=
 issues with a big stick
>
>
>
> Sent from my iPhone
>
> Begin forwarded message:
>
>=20=20=20
>> From: Michael Mooney <mooney@stratfor.com>
>> To: burton@stratfor.com
>> Subject: Fwd: PGP Quote and killing the STRATFOR communication=20=20
>> encryption issues with a big stick
>>
>>=20=20=20=20=20
>=20=20=20
>> Fred,
>>
>> I had a conversation with Stick regarding this quote (attached) from=20=
=20
>> PGP
>> corporation (and their reseller) this morning to test the waters.=20=20=
=20=20
>> I'd
>> like to talk to you about it at your convenience.
>>
>> After quite a bit of time looking for any other solution than the=20=20
>> pricey
>> one, I've finally decided this is the best way to permanently kill our
>> PGP woes.
>>
>> PGP corp reps have mostly sold me on this as a solution, now I want to
>> run it by you, and if you are interested then George.   This is a
>> significant enough investment that we should only pursue it if our
>> frustration with our current PGP deployment warrants it.
>>
>> It has become clear to me that this will kill 90% or more of our PGP
>> challenges.  It also offers us some new features like blackberry
>> encryption, the ability to communicate securely with outside users=20=20
>> with
>> no pgp at all, an auditing system (which we can discuss), and a=20=20
>> \"escrow\"
>> system that works akin to a missile silo (2 or more individuals=20=20
>> required
>> to access another individuals encrypted data), and several other=20=20
>> features.
>>
>> Really though, my primary interest in this solution lies in the top=20=
=20
>> down
>> management to the PGP deployment it provides, it's an enterprise
>> solution, and the simplicity of use it provides to the common user.
>>
>> Please let me know when we can take a moment to discuss this.
>>
>> --Mike
>>
>> -------- Original Message --------
>> Message-ID:    <4BCF3C35.2060900@stratfor.com>
>> Date:    Wed, 21 Apr 2010 12:56:05 -0500
>> From:    Michael Mooney <mooney@stratfor.com>
>> Organization:    STRATFOR
>> User-Agent:    Mozilla/5.0 (Macintosh; U; Intel Mac OS X 10.6; en-US;
>> rv:1.9.1.9) Gecko/20100317 Thunderbird/3.0.4
>> MIME-Version:    1.0
>> To:    scott.stewart@stratfor.com
>> Subject:    PGP Quote and killing the STRATFOR communication=20=20
>> encryption
>> issues with a big stick
>> X-Enigmail-Version:    1.0
>> OpenPGP:    id=3D7B170D4F
>> Content-Type:    multipart/mixed;
>> boundary=3D\"------------070902090701020406070506\"
>>
>>
>>
>> Hey Stick,
>>
>> Per my phone conversation I'd like a chance to discuss this quote with
>> you and the features provided and issues resolved by this solution.
>> Optimally we would both be completely sold on this as the best=20=20
>> solution
>> for our encryption needs before I present this to George.
>>
>> With that in mind I'd like to sell you on it and also work with you to
>> address any concerns I might have missed.
>>
>> I think a phone meeting sometime this week would be extremely useful.
>>
>> Thanks,
>> ----
>> --Mike
>>
>> -------- Original Message --------
>> Subject:    PGP Quote
>> Date:    Wed, 21 Apr 2010 14:22:14 +0000
>> From:    David Love <david.love@anidirect.com>
>> To:    mooney@stratfor.com <mooney@stratfor.com>
>>
>>
>>
>> Michael,
>>
>>
>> Thank you for your time this morning. The quote is attached for your
>> review.
>>
>>
>>
>> Also, please send the brief paragraph outlining your Zimbra-based
>> network architecture when you have time. In the meantime, I=C3=A2=E2=82=
=AC=E2=84=A2m going=20=20
>> to
>> bring it up with my engineers now so they can start researching it.=20=
=20
>> Then
>> if you would like to send us a more thorough document, that will be
>> gladly accepted (in a few days). We may or may not have an answer by
>> then and will let you know if we do.
>>
>>
>> Regards,
>>
>>
>>
>> David Love
>>
>> ANI Direct
>>
>> 214-764-6567 office
>>
>> 972-974-2324 cell
>>
>> 972-385-9771 Fax
>>
>> david.love@anidirect.com <mailto:david.love@anidirect.com>
>>
>> www.anidirect.com <http://www.anidirect.com/>
>>
>>
>>
>> *Host, Perimeter, & Data Loss Prevention Network Security Specialist*
>>
>>
>>
>>=20=20=20=20=20
","2010-04-26 02:46:45",1,"2012-03-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3481100_re-fwd-pgp-quote-and-killing-the-stratfor-communication.html","scott.stewart@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,mooney@stratfor.com",""
3496753,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
","   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart <stewart@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>; Korena Zucha<zucha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>, Alpha List
   <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
","2011-11-18 21:17:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3496753_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
3507960,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
","   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-17 14:01:00",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3507960_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
3510058,"Re: follow up
","will do

On 12/30/09 14:52 , Fred Burton wrote:
> She claims to be catching a two hour flight from Kent to Switzerland,
> however, I suspect she is driving from Austin to Spring, Texas.  Can you
>  take a peek later this afternoon to see if she is hitting the
> Houston/Spring network?  Thanks
>
> Michael Mooney wrote:
>   
>> She is currently logged into IM via \"cpe-67-9-137-28.austin.res.rr.com\"
>> which is an Austin RoadRunner cable account.
>>
>> Fred Burton wrote:
>>     
>>> Mike, Can you check our friends log on location today?  She is claiming
>>> to be in Kent than off to Switzerland...Thanks
>>>   
>>>       
","2009-12-30 21:55:39",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3510058_re-follow-up-.html","mooney@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
3517427,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-11 13:59:34",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3517427_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
3527637,"Global Vantage Clients 
","","2006-02-07 23:51:07",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3527637_global-vantage-clients-.html","glass@stratfor.com","","service@stratfor.com","attach/150/150549_GV Client List rev. 1-31-06.xls"
3528903,"L's mail for 1st 09 trip
","7","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3528903_l-s-mail-for-1st-09-trip-.html","mooney@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com","attach/2/2832_colibasanu.vcf
attach/150/150616_clip_image009.jpg
attach/150/150617_image002-2.jpg
attach/150/150618_Credit Cards Authorization form.doc
attach/150/150619_image004.jpg
attach/150/150620_Credit Card Payment Authorisation Form.doc
attach/150/150621_clip_image011.jpg
attach/150/150622_Oil %26 Gas Outl.pdf
attach/150/150623_clip_image006.jpg
attach/150/150624_image001-2.jpg
attach/150/150625_clip_image007.jpg
attach/150/150626_clip_image002.jpg
attach/150/150627_image002.jpg
attach/150/150628_Kazakhstan think tanks.doc
attach/150/150629_Shuttle schedule.doc
attach/150/150630_clip_image004.jpg
attach/150/150631_image001.jpg
attach/150/150632_Confirmation Miss  Goodrich.doc
attach/150/150633_image003-1.jpg
attach/150/150634_clip_image013.jpg
attach/150/150635_result.pdf"
3533074,"L's emails for Russia 08 trip
","7","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3533074_l-s-emails-for-russia-08-trip-.html","mooney@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com","attach/151/151044_image006.jpg
attach/151/151045_list of partic.xls
attach/151/151046_CC Payment form.DOC
attach/151/151047_Kempinski Hotel Booking form.doc
attach/151/151048_AR Invoice_200805493.jpg
attach/151/151049_image003.gif
attach/151/151050_20081208131621474.pdf
attach/151/151051_brochure.pdf
attach/151/151052_wave.gif
attach/151/151053_image002-1.gif
attach/151/151054_FULL COMPANY D.doc
attach/151/151055_Kempinski Hotel Booking Form.pdf
attach/151/151056_result.pdf"
3538211,"Re: Fwd: Weekly Executive Report
","   40k is a lot of money to spend on that obviously.  It probably prices the
   solution out of our means right now. 

   Michael Mooney wrote:

     Before you come at me with fire in your eyes,  I intended to discuss the
     PGP solution with Stick then Fred before you, not leave you out of the
     loop.   I'll be free to discuss it with you at your leisure. 

     This is a pgp corporation solution, and it's not free.   But when I
     removed cost from my constraints in my ongoing search for a large enough
     hammer to smash the PGP problems -- it's where I ended up.

     I've included the initial quote, we can talk about the features provided
     and guarantees made by PGP corp at your leisure.

     --Mike

     -------- Original Message --------

     Subject: Weekly Executive Report                    
        Date: Sat, 24 Apr 2010 09:35:20 -0400            
        From: scott stewart <scott.stewart@stratfor.com> 
          To: <exec@stratfor.com>                        

     I spent a good portion of my week putting out little fires caused by
     people issues.  Management would be so much easier if people were not
     involved.  J

      

     I met with Mike yesterday to discuss a solution for our PGP encryption
     woes. He has found a decent solution, but it looks like it will cost us
     some money to put  it in place.

      

      

      

     OSINT

      

     Things are churning along fine.

      

     Kristen is working with Darryl and Jeff to get the WNC/NTIS feed turned
     on. Like the BBC feed, this is going to create some challenges as far as
     sorting through it, but having too much information is better than not
     having enough.

      

     As noted last week, and mentioned mid week in another conversation, we
     are ready to switch Antonia over to work with Meredith on the
     confederation project when the funding is available to hire Zac. He is
     living in Spain, so he would be a contract employee with no benefits.

      

      

      

     Collection

      

     Meredith and I are continuing on with the source review process. We
     worked with Mark for several hours this week and only got about 2/3 of
     the way through his exhaustive (and exhausting source list). He
     continues to amaze me as far as his ability to interact with people in
     Africa. I've been working with him to share more of his knowledge and to
     ensure that he reports all the insight he receives, and I have noticed a
     big difference over the past several weeks.

      

     Aaron continues to make some good contacts in Yemen. He will be home in
     mid-to-late May.

      

     Jen will be going to China  the last two weeks of June.

      

     Rodger will be heading to South East Asia  

      

      

     Tactical

      

     Sean is finishing up the Iranian Intelligence Services piece. I think it
     is looking pretty good. I am unaware of anyone else doing a piece like
     this and think it will get a good response. We are thinking about
     handling Indian intelligence services next any feedback from you on that
     .choice would be appreciated.

      

     Ben is working on the World Cup Security analysis with Bayless and Mark.
     We should have it done within the next couple weeks. They met with
     Grant's team to talk about marketing the report this week. I missed that
     meeting due to a conflicting meeting with George, Peter and Rodger,  so
     I don't have the details of what transpired.

      

     I took Intern Ryan Abbey out to lunch yesterday. He is currently
     finishing up his Master's thesis and is in the process of going through
     his BI/polygraph to work for Northrop/Grumman on a CIA contract as a
     terrorism analyst. We will probably lose him in the fall to that job.
      Monitor Brian Oates graduates with his BA in May and will be going to
     the same place a few months earlier.  We will have Marija take Brian's
     weekend hours when he leaves. Brian will be less of a loss than Ryan.

      

     Posey got the Amazon CIS piece written this week and is just now
     finishing up the Johnson Controls CIS project.

      

     Anya is working on a CIS project for Walmart with Lauren's help.

      

     After George's \"What is important\" meeting on Wednesday, we had a good
     training meeting on Thursday to talk about the mechanics of how we in
     tactical determine what is important and how we develop the analytical
     framework required to examine tactical topics.  We also talked about
     paradigm shifts and forecasting.

      

      

     Scott Stewart

     STRATFOR

     Office: 814 967 4046

     Cell: 814 573 8297

     scott.stewart@stratfor.com

     www.stratfor.com

   --

   George Friedman

   Founder and CEO

   Stratfor

   700 Lavaca Street

   Suite 900

   Austin, Texas 78701

   Phone  512-744-4319

   Fax  512-744-4334
","2010-04-24 19:52:17",1,"2012-03-01 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3538211_re-fwd-weekly-executive-report-.html","gfriedman@stratfor.com","","mooney@stratfor.com",""
3545647,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged \"Anonymous\" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise \"anonymous\"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
","2011-11-10 19:47:39",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3545647_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
3546963,"Re: Encryption Guidance
","OMG

This is more difficult than getting a cable cleared through Foggy Bottom.

\"Humm...from security I see.\"  FSO Milo Henchcock perches with his red
pen in his bony fingers looking for dangling participles. 

scott stewart wrote:
> We should also note somewhere that SPARK is encrypted and is an acceptable
> way to discuss sensitive subjects and transfer files. 
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
> Sent: Tuesday, October 12, 2010 1:24 PM
> To: Korena Zucha
> Cc: 'Michael D. Mooney'; 'Nate Hughes'; 'Scott Stewart'; 'Korena Zucha';
> 'Anya Alfano'
> Subject: Re: Encryption Guidance
>
> ? Encryption is a tool that we are not fully integrating but need to
> based on the nature of our business, which draws the interests of
> many-some of which are hostile to our mission. PGP should be emphasized
> and enforced for all executives and other designated employees. Should
> there be any doubt about whether something you are writing is sensitive
> and should be encrypted, err on the side of caution and encrypt it
> anyway. Common sense should prevail. Types of information that need to
> be encrypted include:
> o Sensitive company financial data should be encrypted on a case by case
> basis, which will be left to the discretion of the sender.
> o Certain client names and related contract details as deemed necessary
> by CEO.
> o Sensitive personnel information, to include SSNs, salaries and
> health-related information
> o Sensitive INSIGHT or the identification of sources. For any questions
> about what sources may fit into this category, please contact Scott
> Stewart.
> o CEO travel itinerary, including flight and hotel information and dates
> of travel
> o Sensitive executive-level discussions
>
>
> ** Can I get only this in a word document? Thanks
>
>
> Korena Zucha wrote:
>   
>> Incorporated with Fred's comments from yesterday as well. Let me know
>> if you need anything else.
>>
>> On 10/12/2010 8:11 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
>>     
>>> note changes
>>>
>>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>> *From:* Korena Zucha [mailto:zucha@stratfor.com]
>>> *Sent:* Tuesday, October 12, 2010 8:08 AM
>>> *To:* Fred Burton
>>> *Cc:* 'Michael D. Mooney'; 'Nate Hughes'; 'Scott Stewart'; 'Korena
>>> Zucha'; 'Anya Alfano'
>>> *Subject:* Re: Encryption Guidance
>>>
>>> Updated. Any other changes?
>>>
>>> Encryption is a tool that we are not fully integrating but need to
>>> based on the nature of our business. PGP should be emphasized and
>>> used by all employees. (delete - enforced for all executives and
>>> other designated employees. As guidance, content that fits into the
>>> following categories should be encrypted although this list is not
>>> all-inclusive. Should there be any doubt about whether something you
>>> are writing should be encrypted or if you think something is
>>> sensitive, err on the side of caution and encrypt it anyway. Common
>>> sense should prevail.
>>> o Sensitive company financial data should be encrypted on a case by
>>> case basis left to the discretion of the sender
>>> o Certain client names and related contract details as deemed
>>> necessary by the CEO . (delete the rest - by Meredith Friedman and
>>> Beth Bronder. Note that the use of code names, which will also be
>>> determined by Meredith and Beth along with the Briefers, is not a
>>> replacement for using PGP.
>>> o Sensitive personnel information, to include SSNs, salaries and
>>> health-related information
>>> o Sensitive sourcing insight. For any questions about what sources
>>> may fit into this category, contact Stick.
>>> o CEO travel itinerary, including flight and hotel information and
>>> dates of travel
>>> o Sensitive executive-level discussions
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On 10/12/2010 7:21 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
>>>       
>>>> sensitive company financial data on a case by case basis left to the
>>>> discretion of the sender
>>>>         
>>> No virus found in this incoming message.
>>> Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
>>> Version: 9.0.862 / Virus Database: 271.1.1/3190 - Release Date:
>>> 10/11/10 01:34:00
>>>
>>>       
>
>   
","2010-10-12 19:35:58",1,"2012-03-01 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3546963_re-encryption-guidance-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","mooney@stratfor.com,hughes@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,anya.alfano@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com,zucha@stratfor.com",""
3552067,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
","   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart <stewart@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>; Korena Zucha<zucha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>, Alpha List
   <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
","2011-11-18 21:17:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3552067_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
3561263,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-11 13:59:34",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3561263_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
3573985,"Fw: extraordinary achievement
","   Below is an email from the prime minister of turkey's head of
   international communication. He runs turkey's international image and is
   extremely powerful in the government. As you can see below I reached out
   to him as this crisis broke. After 48 hours he responded. That's a long
   delay so this was discussed. As you can see he is offering to broker a
   peace.

   The gulen is a faction the government fears. It is extremely complex and I
   won't explain it here but ibrahim's ability to intervene indicates our
   status.

   This has been a long 48 hours for reva and kamran and for me. This is far
   from the only time we've been caught in a shitstorm but its an opportunity
   to introduce the execs to one of the real complexities facing this
   company.

   Out international influence is substantial and part of the reason for our
   success. While I won't ever back away from a fight I ideally have to find
   a way to calm things down. As you can imagine this fellow is a great
   source so I have to be careful. There are times when stratfor is
   conducting its own foreign policy. Its really important that all
   executives have a sense of this dimension. It makes us money, don. It can
   make lots of money. Few companies have this kind of access around the
   world.

   if anyone has questions I'd be happy to answer. You need to understand how
   this stuff is part of our business model.

   Obviously this is stratfor classified. The issue is known in the company.
   This communication is known to reva, kamran and the execs. The
   relationship I have with this guy has to be secret and certainly this
   communication.

   Have a happy labor day. Chances of turkish terrorist killing us all just
   diminished. A good thing.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Ibrahim Kalin <ibrahimkalin@gmail.com>
   Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2010 20:08:42 -0500 (CDT)
   To: George Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: extraordinary achievement
   dear george.
   i understand your dilemma! it is more a reflection of the realities of
   turkish society and politics than an error or failure in your analysis.
   such a complicated society as turkey does not lend itself to neat
   categories.
   but there are, as you know very well, different levels of analysis and
   they can be applied to the religious and political trends in turkey. this
   holds true for the gulen movement as well as the secularists (and ak party
   and others). part of the reason why there is always a very strong reaction
   to an analysis that seems to leave out one piece of the puzzle is that
   there is a deep sense of existential threat in almost all social and
   political movements/groups in turkey. the modern turkish republic was
   founded upon a zero-sum game for various historical reasons and security
   in the widest sense of the term has been the top priority of the
   republican elites for many decades. paradoxically and rather sadly, it has
   created similar emotions and reactions among the non-state elites, leading
   to a mirror image. ak party, probably the most successful political
   movement in recent turkish history in terms of its ability to project a
   new social imagination across the turkish society (i just came back from a
   major rally in diyarbakir where pm erdogan embraced the entire country
   with its turks, kurds, arabs, etc, without stepping on anyone's toe- a
   nearly impossible job!).
   regarding the gulen movement, there are many points that need to be
   considered. but i know this is not what you ask in your message.
   the best thing to do is to reach fethullah gulen himself. but that might
   too cumbersome. my suggestion is to contact ekrem dumanli, editor-in-chief
   of zaman newspaper. i will be happy to introduce you to him.
   regards,
   ibrahim

   2010/9/1 George Friedman <gfriedman@stratfor.com>

     Dear Ibrahim:

     Stratfor appears to have achieved the impossible.* We are disliked by
     the secularists for spreading the idea of neo-Ottomanism and now by the
     Gulen movement as agents of foreign powers (I guess that means the U.S.
     and Israel).* It is hard to offend both groups but we have done it.* My
     view of our analysis of the Gulen movement is that it described it as
     what it was--a powerful strand of the Turkish polity.* We have been
     accused of saying that they were violent (we didn't) and of being
     foreign agents (we aren't).*

     The responses are in a way understandable, but at the same time it is a
     bit troubling.* I doubt that there is any group as favorably inclined to
     Turkey as Stratfor is at this moment and we take a lot of grief from the
     Armenians and Jews for this. I am particularly pressured but I take
     perverse pride in resisting.*

     So I write asking some advice.* I have nothing against the Gulen
     movement.* I find it interesting and important and worth the time and
     effort we spent studying them.* We understood what they wanted but what
     we gave them was, in an American context, not at all negative.* They are
     a powerful group to be taken seriously.* I am inclined to call someone
     if not to smooth things over but to make it clear that I have no
     animosity toward them--simply to set that part of the record straight,
     and to listen to particularly criticisms.* Detailed objections have been
     scarce.*

     Do you have any suggestion on whether and how to proceed.* I know this
     might be delicate for you so if you want to decline involvement I
     entirely understand.

     George

     --

     George Friedman

     Founder and CEO

     Stratfor

     700 Lavaca Street

     Suite 900

     Austin, Texas 78701

     Phone* 512-744-4319

     Fax* 512-744-4334
","2010-09-04 03:47:24",1,"2012-03-07 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3573985_fw-extraordinary-achievement-.html","friedman@att.blackberry.net","","exec@stratfor.com",""
3624171,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
","   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marc Lanthemann\" <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-14 20:55:23",1,"2012-02-28 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3624171_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
3640451,"FW: email of Fred Burton
","   That's pretty cool!

   Aaric S. Eisenstein

   Stratfor

   SVP Publishing

   700 Lavaca St., Suite 900

   Austin, TX  78701

   512-744-4308

   512-744-4334 fax

   -----Original Message-----
   From: veni Markovski [mailto:venimarkovski@gmail.com] On Behalf Of Veni
   Markovski
   Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2008 4:46 PM
   To: service@stratfor.com
   Subject: email of Fred Burton

   Hi.

   I am looking for the e-mail of Mr. Burton. Would be glad, if you can send
   it.

   Thank you.

   Sincerely,

   Veni Markovski

   Senior Advisor for International Projects
   <http://www.daits.government.bg/>State Agency for IT and Communications
   <http://www.government.bg/>Council of Ministers | REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA
   ----------------
   email: <mailto:veni@veni.com>veni@veni.com | email2:
   <mailto:veni@daits.government.bg>veni@daits.government.bg
   office: +1-646-873-7708 | office2: +359-2-401-8008 | fax: +1-212-319-5955
   Bulgarian Consulate General, 121 E 62nd Str., New York, NY 10021, USA
","2008-08-11 00:02:43",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3640451_fw-email-of-fred-burton-.html","eisenstein@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,exec@stratfor.com",""
3721890,"Fwd: [alpha] REMINDER  -   MUST READ - Reminder on Alpha List Protocol
","   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: [alpha] REMINDER - MUST READ - Reminder on Alpha List Protocol 
       Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2011 10:54:23 -0500                                
       From: Michael Wilson <michael.wilson@stratfor.com>                   
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>                                
         To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>                                

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: [alpha] MUST READ - Reminder on Alpha List Protocol 
       Date: Tue, 05 Jul 2011 14:57:42 -0500                     
       From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>                   
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>                     
         To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>                     

   We have had lapses in Operational Security Protocol recently regarding the
   Alpha list.  Please remember it is important to maintain operational
   security both for the safety of you and and your sources.   In that view
   please remember and follow the steps below: 

     * Do not mention or refer to the \"Alpha list\" outside the Alpha List,
       whether this means verbally at the office or on different AOR lists.
       Just refer to \"Insight\" or \"As our Yemeni friend said recently\"
     * If sending insight outside the Alpha List, remove source
       header/description and sanitize text for any information that could
       help identify source. If you are not the source handler, make sure you
       clear it with the source handler prior to sending
     * Remove any reference to Alpha list in the subject line of the email.
       Note that our email automatically creates a \"[alpha]\" prefix in the
       email subject line - this should be removed.
     * This best way to remember some of these steps is to never forward
       insight, but rather copy appropriate information into a new email

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
 (512) 744-4300 ex 4112
","2011-09-14 02:03:21",1,"2012-08-05 16:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3721890_fwd-alpha-reminder-must-read-reminder-on-alpha-list-protocol.html","michael.wilson@stratfor.com","","ashley.harrison@stratfor.com",""
3828185,"Re: [OS] CANADA/GV - Canadian opposition leader Jack Layton dies
","   Party will survive but it will be weakened. Because you are right,
   Layton's massive charisma took his party from the distant # 3 position to
   a very strong # 2. Don't see anyone who can replace him. Between Layton's
   death and the rout of the LP in the recent election, the Canadian left has
   been dealt some serious blows.

   On 8/23/11 10:46 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

     now the question is whether his crackpot party can survive him

     he was VERY charismatic

     On 8/23/11 9:13 AM, Michael Redding wrote:

       This actually happened yesterday, just looks like no one sent it in. 
       This is gonna probably help out the Conservative Party cause Layton
       was a great political strategist.  He pretty much single-handedly
       caused the NDP to become the second largest bloc in Canada's
       parliament.

       Canadian opposition leader Jack Layton dies
       Tuesday, August 23, 2011
       http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2011\08\23\story_23-8-2011_pg4_7

       OTTAWA: Jack Layton, the charismatic leader of Canada's official
       opposition, died on Monday just months after guiding his New
       Democratic Party to its strongest ever performance in the May federal
       election.

       Layton, 61, had almost single-handedly turned his leftist party from
       the smallest bloc in the House of Commons to the second largest in the
       House of Commons. \"He passed away peacefully at his home surrounded by
       family and loved ones,\" a statement from his family said.

       The cheerful former municipal politician from Toronto had won
       admiration for his bravado and stamina on the campaign trail, pumping
       a walking cane in the air soon after a hip operation and treatment for
       prostate cancer.

       Rather than making him look weak, pundits said it gave the
       ever-cheerful Layton a warmer image than his political rivals,
       boosting his party's popularity even as Stephen Harper's ruling
       Conservatives were returned to office with a majority.

       The NDP's strong showing meant that the party displaced the Liberals
       as the official opposition in the House of Commons. It will retain
       that status until the next election, due in 2015, but will have to
       redefine itself in Layton's absence. reuters
","2011-08-23 16:54:04",1,"2012-06-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3828185_re-os-canada-gv-canadian-opposition-leader-jack-layton-dies-.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
3871842,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
","   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart <stewart@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>; Korena Zucha<zucha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>, Alpha List
   <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
","2011-11-18 21:17:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3871842_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
3940281,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged \"Anonymous\" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise \"anonymous\"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
","2011-11-10 19:47:39",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3940281_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
3963716,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-11 13:59:34",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3963716_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
3971285,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
","   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-17 14:01:00",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3971285_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
3980511,"MORE-Insight - Libya - Confirmation Gadhafi is dead - LY700
","   From source in Sirte who took part:

   He was killed while trying to escape via a drainage pipe in Sirte by
   Misratah brigade.

   Along with him was his def minister (dead) and his son Mutassim (dead).

   All the bodies have been taken to city of Misratah.

   On 10/20/11 10:45 AM, Anya Alfano wrote:

     Source Code: LY700
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Govt security contractor on US Govt assignment in
     Libya
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: B
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     My sources are CONFIRMING he's dead. Killed in ground action Sirte.
     Sorry - might be late coming. Lots going on - was hard to reach them.
","2011-10-20 20:41:36",1,"2012-03-19 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/3980511_more-insight-libya-confirmation-gadhafi-is-dead-ly700-.html","zucha@stratfor.com","","anya.alfano@stratfor.com,fred.burton@stratfor.com,watchofficer@stratfor.com",""
4009016,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-11 13:59:34",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4009016_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
4035023,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
","   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marc Lanthemann\" <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-14 20:55:23",1,"2012-02-28 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4035023_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
4061385,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged \"Anonymous\" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise \"anonymous\"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
","2011-11-10 19:47:39",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4061385_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
4151278,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
","   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart <stewart@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>; Korena Zucha<zucha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>, Alpha List
   <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
","2011-11-18 21:17:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4151278_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
4199951,"Re: [CT] Anonymous and Occupy divergence...in the Iowa caucuses
","   Actually that is interesting analysis. It is domestic and not
   geopolitical, but it is certainly interesting to watch. 
   From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>
   Date: Wed, 9 Nov 2011 21:30:51 -0600 (CST)
   To: CT AOR <ct@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Peter Zeihan <peter.zeihan@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [CT] Anonymous and Occupy divergence...in the Iowa caucuses
   Ironically after all my Anonymous bashing, i want to point out a very
   minor development. Mainly because it's funny to me. 

   I mentioned the Occupy Des Moines protest last week sometime.  It is very
   small, and a lot like Austin's.  They have been planning for a few weeks
   to Occupy the Iowa caucuses.  For those of you that don't know about the
   practice of the most important local democratic process in the world, the
   Iowa Caucuses are the first round of true competition between presidential
   candidates.  Unlike voting in a primary, it's more like a town hall
   meeting with much debate and discussion--a very open democratic form.  A
   candidate doesn't have to win Iowa necessarily to get the presidential
   nomination, but it serves to weed most of the bad ones early on in the
   race  (Iowans are fallible, they have made mistakes too). It's the one
   time that Iowa has an influence on politics, and I often say it is Iowa's
   one good thing.  I think it's January 3. 

   Back to the protestors.  Their plan has been developing to \"occupy\"
   candidate's offices.  That really means protest in front of the offices,
   which if you think of all the little shitty strip malls you see around,
   one small section would be a campaign office.  They have no security, and
   allow a lot of access to candidates if they choose to campaign in Iowa.
   The Occupy Des Moines group are not at all planning to disrupt the
   Caucuses functioning.  Though I wouldn't be surprised if they protested
   outside caucus meeting places, or more likely, brought their signs and
   slogans in with them.  These people are experienced organizers (as it
   comes to des moines), and know that if they have a political impact, one
   of the best places to aim it is the Caucuses. 

   Now here comes \"Anonymous.\"  Those of you that read the Wired background
   know that their real effect has been in popularizing \"memes.\"  One of
   these was actually Occupy Wall Street- 
   http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/20/occupy-wall-street-anonymous-connection_n_1021665.html 
   The mob of computer users and protest movement have been running on
   parallel tracks for awhile, and have served to mutually reinforce each
   other.

   Whoever from Anonymous made this new video about the Caucuses has made an
   ass out of themselves.  The video recommends actually shutting down the
   Caucuses.  That is both tactically dumb for the Occupy movement, but also
   totally antithetical to its general ideology.  For example, a Caucus
   functions very similarly to the Occupy General Assembly meetings--direct
   participatory democracy. 

   The Des Moines organizers have already spoken up- saying they have nothing
   to do with this \"Anonymous\" bullshit.  I'm happy to see I left them with
   some sense of realism.  This little event is not going to matter very
   much, but it shows how uncoordinated Anonymous is. 

   See the article below, the video is at the link. 

   Video calls for shutting down Iowa caucuses; the group Anonymous claims
   responsibility
   Jason Clayworth
   4:55 PM, Nov 6, 2011
   http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/11/06/video-calls-for-shutting-down-iowa-caucuses-the-group-anonymous-claims-responsibility/

   An anarchist-style movement that has caught the attention of the FBI and
   taken credit for hacking into military and corporate websites has now
   claimed responsibility for creating a video that urges its supporters to
   shut down the Iowa caucuses.

   Local authorities say they are aware of the video, are preparing for
   possible action by the group and are in contact with the presidential
   campaigns about the issue.

   A computer-generated voice in the online video, which had received more
   than 1,600 views by Sunday evening, says, \"Both parties are desecrating
   the American democracy and committing crimes against humanity on behalf of
   the American people.\"

   It continues: \"The primaries and caucuses put on by these parties are part
   of an elaborate scam that deceives the public into voting for candidates
   that serve the private interests of the mega corporations. These parties
   have deliberately driven tens of millions of people into poverty.\"

   It later says: \"We are calling upon you to occupy the campaign offices of
   presidential headquarters in Des Moines, Iowa, on Dec. 27, and peacefully
   shut down the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3.\"

   The group is believed to have no centralized operational leadership and
   appears to be piggybacking on the Occupy Des Moines movement.

   But Occupy Des Moines leaders say there's a difference: The Iowa group's
   planned sit-ins at presidential campaign headquarters are not intended to
   shut down the Iowa caucuses, they say. Rather, they want to target
   presidential candidates and big-moneyed corporations that activists say
   are pulling the strings behind the scenes.

   While there are similarities between the groups' beliefs, they are
   separate, Occupy Des Moines participants emphasized Sunday.

   \"I don't like it one bit,\" former Rep. Ed Fallon, a Des Moines Democrat
   and participant in Occupy Des Moines, said of the video on Sunday. \"It
   doesn't fit with my definition of Gandhi- and Martin Luther King Jr.-style
   nonviolence. The core of nonviolent action is truth. And if you are doing
   everything you can to be truthful, then you should be up front and
   transparent. No distorting of your voice or hiding.\"

   FBI sees Anonymous as security threat

   The Anonymous movement has become a potential national security threat,
   according to an article published in September by the Associated Press.

   The FBI has carried out more than 75 raids and arrested at least 16 people
   this year in connection with illegal Internet hacking jobs for which the
   group has claimed responsibility, according to the AP. One demonstration
   disrupted traffic in San Francisco as a protest after the Bay Area Rapid
   Transit system shut off cell service to deter a planned protest of a
   police shooting on a subway platform.

   The group also claimed responsibility for hacking the online payment
   processing center PayPal after it had suspended WikiLeaks' account after
   WikiLeaks published sensitive U.S. government intelligence documents, the
   AP reported.

   Three of the Iowa campaign headquarters of presidential candidates are in
   Urbandale - those of Michele Bachmann, a U.S. representative from
   Minnesota; former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain; and former
   Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

   Urbandale police are aware of the video, and while they aren't releasing
   details of their security plans, authorities will be prepared should the
   demonstrations take an illegal turn, Urbandale officer Randy Peterson said
   Sunday.

   \"We'll just try to address any issue as they arise,\" Peterson said.

   Occupy movement: We don't plan to interfere with voting

   Occupy Des Moines, an offshoot of an anti-Wall Street protest group, last
   week announced plans to launch nonviolent sit-ins inside campaign offices
   in the final week before the Iowa caucuses. Some of the group's members
   have said they expect large-scale arrests, but they have emphasized they
   do not plan to commit violence or interfere with voting.

   \"There might be some overlap\" in what the groups believe, \"but Anonymous
   speaks for themselves and the Occupy Movement speaks for itself,\" said
   David Goodner, a demonstrator who often speaks on behalf of Occupy Des
   Moines. \"Whether the public can understand that or not, I'm not sure, but
   for me there's a clear difference.\"

   State officials were preparing for a variety of public safety scenarios
   associated with the Iowa caucuses before the video was released, said John
   Benson, a public information officer for Iowa's Homeland Security and
   Emergency Management Division

   \"Obviously with the video that they've put out and some of the other work
   they're doing, that certainly increases your overall awareness,\" Benson
   said. \"But to say we're going to do something specific in our planning
   process, we can't say that right now, but it certainly has our attention.\"

   Party leaders: Let caucuses proceed

   Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Matt Strawn said the party's state
   central committee will discuss the situation at its next meeting.

   \"Successive generations of Iowans of both political parties have worked
   awfully hard to make sure Iowans have this opportunity to participate in
   this first-in-the-nation caucus,\" Strawn said. \"I certainly will do
   anything in my power to keep outside agitators from ruining something that
   a lot of people have worked very hard for over a long period of time.\"

   The integrity of the Iowa caucuses would be eroded should attempts to shut
   them down be successful, said Iowa Democratic Party Chairwoman Sue
   Dvorsky.

   \"If anyone is coming and planning to make it so the participants of the
   caucus cannot have a civil and civic conversation, then of course that
   would erode the integrity of the caucuses, and it flies in the face of
   what the caucuses are,\" Dvorsky said. \"They're the most basic
   long-standing tradition in this country of neighbors coming together to
   talk about political issues.\"

   She continued: \"I'm hoping Iowans can protect their ability to speak
   freely and respectfully with their neighbors.\"

   About Anonymous

   Anonymous emerged in 2003 from an Internet chat channel where members
   organized web incidents for their own amusement.

   By 2008, the prankster nature of Anonymous morphed into \"hacktivism,\"
   where members sabotaged websites and leaked confidential information for
   political purposes, according to law enforcement authorities.

   The group has no formal leadership and is generally considered to be more
   of a movement than an organization. As the name implies, its members
   generally don't identify themselves.

   The group has generally concentrated on Internet hacking. This summer, it
   claimed credit for hacking into a Booz Allen Hamilton website and leaking
   email addresses of 90,000 U.S. military personnel and hacking a Monsanto
   Co. website and releasing personal data on 2,500 employees.

   Sources: USA Today and the Associated Press

   --
   Sean Noonan
   Tactical Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: +1 512-279-9479 A| M: +1 512-758-5967
   www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-10 11:10:37",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4199951_re-ct-anonymous-and-occupy-divergence-in-the-iowa-caucuses-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:ct@stratfor.com","ct@stratfor.com,peter.zeihan@stratfor.com",""
4523156,"Re: diary for comment - greece and shit - 20111101
","   A few comments in red...

   On 11/1/11 9:39 PM, Kevin Stech wrote:

     PS - probably will change the ending. i was in a hurry to wrap it up and
     got kind of snappy there. suggestions welcome.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Kevin Stech\" <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Analyst List\" <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 9:25:44 PM
     Subject: diary for comment - greece and shit - 20111101

     I actually kind of strayed from the discussion notes quite a bit, but I
     wanted to capture all the buzz around Draghi and the ECB right now too.
     Have at it.

     On Nov. 1, two interconnected events cast into sharp relief the problems
     and potential solutions Europe currently faces.

      

     Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou announced late Oct. 31 that he
     would be putting the question of the ongoing Greek bailout and austerity
     programs to a referendum in the near future (we could say the referendum
     is expected by January?), dramatically accelerating the unfolding of the
     European debt crisis.  The holding of a referendum is not yet a
     certainty. First there will be a vote of confidence in Papandreou's
     leadership. It is entirely possible that the Greek government will
     collapse before even getting to the point of a referendum (as P holds a
     narrow majority in Parliament and some MP of the governing party
     rejected P's idea).

      

     Additionally, until the date for and text of the referendum is
     finalized, it is difficult to project how Greek voters will respond.
      Polling data shows that while 73% of Greeks favor eurozone membership,
     59% of Greeks oppose the bailout deal reached Oct. 27 in which a large
     tranche of Greek sovereign debt is written down by half, Greek banks are
     recapitalized, and Greece is sequestered from debt markets through the
     remainder of the decade.

      

     The problem for Greeks is the bailout-linked ingress by the so-called
     Troika - the EC, ECB and IMF - into Greek fiscal and economic affairs
     and the painful austerity program it aims to micromanage.  Wildly
     unpopular in the Hellenic Republic for its deflationary effect on the
     economy and the perceived loss of sovereignty alike, the
     bailout/austerity package faces a substantial chance of being voted down
     in a referendum. And since the loss of bailout funds would certainly
     lead to a default and forced exit from the Eurozone, EU leaders now have
     a timeframe within which to operate and a heightened sense of urgency
     driving them.

      

     As the shock of the Greek development sunk in, former head of the Bank
     of Italy Mario Draghi took over the presidency of the ECB from Trichet.
     As a member of the Troika, the ECB has been instrumental in the evolving
     and multifaceted European bailout process. As the apex of the European
     banking system it has protected banks by extending unlimited liquidity
     in the face of both subprime defaults and now sovereign default. It has
     even taken the contraversial step of protecting countries directly by
     purchasing public debt. And it has done all of this, under Trichet's
     relatively conservative management, while keeping a lid on the money
     supply.

      

     As a point of comparison, the Troika's more public bailout mechanism,
     the EFSF, has distributed a roughly comparable amount of bailout funds
     to sovereigns, but only after a hard fought battle over X months (two
     and a half months, it was announced by the EU on July 21 and got the
     final vote in Slovakia on October 13) in the parliaments of the 27 EU
     nations (it was voted by the eurozone 17 members). As the guarantees
     that back the facility are increasingly encumbered by commitments, it is
     anyone's guess where further guarantees or capital might come from or
     how long it might take to get them. Another X month process of drumming
     up sovereign guarantees would almost certainly be overtaken by events.
     Europe doesn't have enough surplus cash or room to add more sovereign
     debt. And reception of the EFSF's scheme to attract capital from foreign
     sovereigns, notably Russia and China, has received a chilly reception
     thus far.

      

     It is therefore no surprise that Draghi enters his new post under much
     scrutiny and anticipation. As a citizen of one of the much maligned
     PIIGS nations there is speculation that his interests may be aligned
     with the high debt states in desperate need of aid.  If nothing else,
     the break with Trichet's relatively staid monetary policy has invited
     this brand of wishful thinking. Regardless, as Europe's debt woes swell,
     the ECB has increasingly been mooted as the only failsafe left to stave
     off complete dissolution of the euro, recently by French President
     Nicolas Sarkozy himself. 

      

     And this brings us back to Greece.  The Troika's economic controls that
     have so inflamed Greece, that have moved the country significantly
     closer to a full and uncontrolled default, are the very measures that
     must be in place for an expanded application of the ECB's monetary
     powers to the crisis.  Without the ability to more directly manage the
     finances of bailout recipients, full ECB assistance becomes an exercise
     in \"moral hazard,\" with states reaping benefits instead of pain for
     their missteps.  The ECB and its implicit backer Germany have thus far
     ruled out expanded central bank aid to states, in part for this reason. 
     A Greek rejection of the bailout/austerity package makes expanded ECB
     support both more necessary and politically unpalatable to Germany.

      

     But as fiscal controls like expanded budgetary surveillance and
     automatic debt penalties take effect for the entire EU in the coming
     months, the ECB's response to the increasingly urgent crisis will only
     come under increased focus. As the Troika attempts to navigate the
     interplay between fiscal governance and bailout packages, a revised
     strategy should begin to emerge. STRATFOR's standing forecast is that
     the EU, as an intrinsically desynchronized union, will break apart. The
     timing of such an event is still unclear, but Europe is about to be
     presented with its first chance to validate us.

      

 --
 Adriano Bosoni - ADP
","2011-11-02 04:24:38",1,"2012-02-29 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4523156_re-diary-for-comment-greece-and-shit-20111101-.html","adriano.bosoni@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
4568398,"Re: discussion - the eurozone's doozy step
","   I think that P may be looking for internal legitimacy: the successive
   austerity plans imposed by the EU and the IMF have undermined his
   administration. Strikes and demonstrations, sometimes violent, are the
   order of the day. But the atmosphere is rare: 60% of Greeks see the
   Brussels-imposed measures as \"negative\" according to a poll published on
   Saturday. But in the same survey, over 70% of people said they want Greece
   to stay in the euro zone.

   On 11/1/11 9:02 AM, Christoph Helbling wrote:

     Does anybody know why Papandreou made this announcement? I can't find
     any explanation. Apparently he didn't even tell his finance minister.
     Papandreou also lost a MP over this issue.

     On 11/1/11 8:30 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

       aye - and until we know the actual wording of the referendum we
       shouldn't jump to many conclusions, esp since (as powers has pointed
       out repeatedly) default means that austerity is coming anyway it'd
       just be structured somewhat differently

       that said, a referendum cracks open some possibilities that heretofore
       didn't exist

       On 11/1/11 8:17 AM, Matthew Powers wrote:

         I think we should be careful in assuming the referendum fails. 
         While that certainly seems like the most likely outcome, the Greek
         government has a few months to paint a doomsday scenario of what
         leaving the Euro will mean.  The most recent polling data is a mixed
         bag, with some indicators suggesting the Greeks would vote against a
         referendum, and some indicating they may support it.  The austerity
         and other conditions are very unpleasant, but default and all that
         comes with it is hardly an enticing option. 

         Peter Zeihan wrote:

           The Greeks are going to have a referendum on the austerity/bailout
           program, which is in essence a vote on whether to stay in the euro
           and honor their debts or not. Barring some very creative
           campaigning I find it unlikely it will pass. Greece may be about
           to vote itself out of the eurozone.

           If that's the case, then Europe's got about three months to
           prepare. Yes its a bit doomsday, but actually having a very clear
           deadline like that might be just what the doctor ordered. They
           know exactly how long they've got and exactly what the problem is
           both in scale and scope.

           On 11/1/11 4:25 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

             This will be really exciting. I guess they kind of have to do it
             though. The deal offered to them might be economically
             semi-attractive, it also signs away Greek sovereignty for an
             undetermined amount of years though. If Greece says no, it'll
             probably have to leave the Eurozone, in other words the EU,
             though. And good look on those interest rates after that
             Portugal, Spain and Italy. This is crazy, crazy stuff, it also
             took back decision-making on this affair back to Athens for the
             first time since arguably the first bailout package - either
             temporarily or for good I would say, for better or for worse.

             On 11/01/2011 03:06 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

               Well this'll get exciting

               On Oct 31, 2011, at 9:01 PM, Michael Wilson
               <michael.wilson@stratfor.com> wrote:

                 Some clarity from these articles. The referendum won't be
                 until next year, probably January. But there will be a vote
                 on whether to have the referendum, this week, on Friday, and
                 it will be tied to a confidence vote which he is expected to
                 pass with 3 votes

                 Greek PM gambles on referendum for new debt deal; vote
                 expected early 2012

                  
                 http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/markets/greek-prime-minister-calls-referendum-on-new-debt-deal-no-date-given/2011/10/31/gIQA5NdjZM_story.html

                 By Associated Press, Updated: Monday, October 31, 4:39 PM

                 ATHENS, Greece - Taking a huge political gamble, Greece's
                 prime minister announced Monday that his debt-strapped
                 country will hold a referendum on the new European debt deal
                 reached last week - the first such vote in 37 years.

                 Prime Minister George Papandreou appeared to take many
                 lawmakers by surprise by saying that a hard-bargained
                 agreement that took months for Europe's leaders to hammer
                 out will be put to a public ballot.
                 He gave no date or other details on the proposed referendum,
                 which would be the first in Greece since 1974, when the
                 monarchy was abolished by a landslide vote months after the
                 collapse of a military dictatorship.

                 \"This will be the referendum: The citizen will be called
                 upon to say a big `yes' or a big `no' to the new loan
                 arrangement,\" Papandreou told Socialist members of
                 parliament. \"This is a supreme act of democracy and of
                 patriotism for the people to make their own decision ... We
                 have a duty to promote the role and the responsibility of
                 the citizen.\"
                 The move allows Socialist lawmakers - who have been vilified
                 by an increasingly hostile public during months of strikes,
                 sit-ins and violent protests over rounds of austerity
                 measures - to pass the responsibility for the country's fate
                 to the Greek people themselves.

                 Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, a constitutional law
                 professor, said the referendum was called after opposition
                 parties repeatedly failed to side with the government in
                 negotiations between Greece and other eurozone members.
                 \"Greece is living through a drama, from which it must be
                 released by asking the people to express its will,\"
                 Venizelos told parliament.

                 \"Each citizen will make his own decision, with
                 responsibility, in a process that will provide a national
                 sense of relief and recovery.\"

                 Later he told private Antenna television: \"It is very clear:
                 The new agreement will be submitted to parliament for
                 approval and then submitted to the judgment of the Greek
                 people ... the Greek people can of course say `no' but must
                 bear in mind the consequences of that decision.\"
                 Venizelos indicated the referendum would be held early next
                 year, after weeks of complex negotiations to finalize
                 details of the new agreement.

                 The new debt deal aims to seek 50 percent losses for private
                 holders of Greek bonds and provide the troubled eurozone
                 member with EUR100 billion ($140 billion) in additional
                 rescue loans.

                 Papandreou's government has seen its majority reduced to
                 just three seats in parliament and its approval ratings
                 plummet amid harsh austerity measures that are sending the
                 country into a fourth year of recession in 2012.

                 The EU statistics agency Eurostat estimated in a report
                 issued Monday that unemployment in Greece reached 17.6
                 percent in July - even higher than the Greek estimate for
                 that month of 16.5 percent.

                 \"This is just the latest twist in the unfolding Greek
                 tragedy,\" said Sony Kapoor, managing director of Re-Define,
                 a London-based think tank.

                 \"With an irresponsible opposition that is promising Greek
                 voters the moon, it is very difficult to see how this
                 referendum could be won under the ongoing gut-wrenching
                 austerity.\"

                 Greece calls referendum on EU bail-out
                 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/68748490-03f5-11e1-98bc-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1cPlCODKu
                 Last updated: October 31, 2011 10:46 pm
                 By Kerin Hope in Athens, Peter Spiegel in Brussels and Telis
                 Demos in New York
                 Greek Prime Minister George PapandreouGetty

                 Greece's prime minister unexpectedly announced a referendum
                 to approve a second EU bail-out deal for his austerity-hit
                 country, less than a week after it was agreed with
                 international creditors at a European Union summit.

                 George Papandreou made the pledge on Monday night in a
                 speech to lawmakers in his fractious PanHellenic Socialist
                 Movement (Pasok) party but did not set a specific date for
                 the vote.

                 \"We have faith in our citizens, we believe in their judgment
                 and therefore in their decision,\" Mr Papandreou said after
                 rejecting a call for early elections by some socialist
                 politicians. \"All the country's political forces should
                 support the [bail-out] agreement. The citizens will do the
                 same once they are fully informed.\"

                 The premier's move reinforced concerns that Greece's fraught
                 domestic politics are spiralling out of control amid growing
                 popular anger over public sector job cuts and tax increases.
                 Strikes and violent demonstrations have become frequent in
                 Athens and other cities.

                 The referendum also looked likely to cause alarm in
                 Brussels, Paris and Berlin after Mr Papandreou's assurances
                 at Wednesday's summit that Greece was determined to maintain
                 a steady pace of reform.

                 Thanks to some help from the European Commission, we have a
                 bit more clarity on where European leaders will be spending
                 the new EUR130bn in Greek bail-out aid

                 One senior EU official told the Financial Times that Mr
                 Papandreou had appeared reticent about the components of the
                 bail-out package during talks at last week's summit of EU
                 presidents and prime ministers but no one was prepared for
                 the referendum announcement that came \"like a bolt out of
                 the blue\".
                 \"I don't think anyone expected this,\" the official said.
                 \"The calculation has to be this is the only way [Papandreou]
                 believes he can get this through.\"

                 \"With an irresponsible opposition that is promising Greek
                 voters the moon, it is very difficult to see how this
                 referendum could be won,\" added Sony Kapoor, head of
                 Re-Define, an economic consultancy. \"The decision is good
                 for democracy but is likely to make the euro crisis worse by
                 heightening uncertainty in this very fragile environment.\"

                 The announcement exacerbated declines in the euro and
                 equities, as investors feared that angry Greek voters could
                 derail the painstakingly negotiated plan.

                 The euro fell to a session low of $1.3827, down more than 2
                 per cent on the day and erasing its gains from last week,
                 when the deal was first announced. US stocks accelerated
                 their decline as well, with the S&P 500 index ending the day
                 down 2.5 per cent. It was the index's worst one-day fall in
                 nearly a month, ending what had been stocks' best month
                 since 1991, with a gain of 10.7 per cent, on a sour note.

                 An opinion poll published on Sunday showed that more than 60
                 per cent of Greeks were opposed to the terms of the new
                 bail-out, which would include another 100,000 job losses
                 over the next three years and big cuts in pensions.

                 The vote would probably be held in January, when Greek
                 bondholders were expected to sign up for a voluntary 50 per
                 cent haircut being negotiated with the International
                 Institute of Finance, wrapping up the new bail-out package.
                 One Athens banker said: \"This is a worrying decision by the
                 prime minister. It could derail the whole process even
                 before it's properly started.\"

                 The premier also announced that a vote of confidence in his
                 government would be held this week to endorse the referendum
                 proposal. That vote would follow a three-day debate on
                 Greece's worsening economic and social problems

                 Antonis Samaras, the conservative opposition leader,
                 immediately rejected the proposal, arguing that a referendum
                 was \"not the way out\".

                 \"The only option is elections and, like Ireland and
                 Portugal, to request the obviously necessary changes in the
                 bail-out agreement,\" he added, referring to proposals by
                 leaders of the two other eurozone member states that are
                 implementing EU-IMF programmes.

                 Mr Papandreou said this year he might call a referendum on
                 reforms of Greece's political system but ruled out a vote on
                 its relationship with the eurozone. His sudden reversal came
                 as a shock, according to party officials. \"This is another
                 upset in a situation that is already volatile,\" one said.

                 Greece to Hold Referendum on New Debt Deal
                 By NIKI KITSANTONIS and RACHEL DONADIO
                 Published: October 31, 2011

                   
                 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/01/world/europe/greece-to-hold-referendum-on-new-debt-deal.html
                 ATHENS - In a surprise move that jolted Europe and put his
                 political future in play, Prime Minister George A.
                 Papandreou announced Monday that his government would hold a
                 referendum on a new aid package for Greece, putting
                 austerity measures - and potentially membership in the euro
                 zone - to a popular vote for the first time.

                 Analysts said the vote on the austerity package did not
                 immediately threaten the comprehensive agreement reached by
                 European leaders last week to shore up the euro zone. More
                 likely, they said, a rejection by the voters would be
                 treated as a vote of no confidence in the government and
                 lead to early elections.

                 But the decision to go ahead with the vote introduces a note
                 of uncertainty in what had seemed to be a done deal. The
                 anxiety stirred up by those fears hammered United States
                 financial markets on Monday, showing once again how the
                 domestic politics of even the smallest members of the
                 European Union can create troubles that not only threaten
                 the currency but reverberate around the globe.

                 Addressing lawmakers on Monday evening, Mr. Papandreou said
                 the decision on whether to adopt the deal, which includes
                 fresh financial assistance, debt relief and deeply unpopular
                 austerity measures, properly belonged to the Greek people.

                 \"Let us allow the people to have the last word, let them
                 decide on the country's fate,\" he said.

                 The move was widely seen as an effort by Mr. Papandreou to
                 shore up his flagging political fortunes and to avoid the
                 instability of early elections. The center-right opposition
                 has opposed the bulk of the austerity program, and the prime
                 minister's popular support has dwindled as Greeks have been
                 hit by a seemingly endless series of tax increases and wage
                 and pension cuts.

                 A referendum would in effect shift responsibility for the
                 nation's painful economic choices from Mr. Papandreou's
                 Socialist Party onto the public.

                 By framing the debate as one of continuing to use the euro
                 or returning to the drachma, the move also appeared to give
                 the Greek government a bit more breathing room - and
                 leverage - in negotiations with Europe over the debt deal,
                 proving that a matter that some in Germany had hoped had
                 been settled last week still had the potential to be
                 reopened.

                 \"It's not motivated by the intention of some sort of
                 brinkmanship with Europe, but it may have this sort of
                 positive or negative effect,\" said George Pagoulatos, a
                 professor of European politics and economy at the Athens
                 University of Economics and Business. \"It raises the stakes.
                 It's about, `Will we remain in the euro with a lower public
                 debt or will we lose everything that we will achieve?' \"

                 At a time when Mr. Papandreou is under intense political and
                 social pressure, including from members of his own Socialist
                 Party, the move was seen as the last card he could play.

                 It was still unclear how the referendum question would be
                 posed, but Mr. Papandreou said the vote would be on whether
                 Greeks supported the debt deal and the program of austerity
                 measures in exchange for foreign aid.

                 The stakes are extremely high. A no vote would not only be
                 likely to bring down the Greek government, it could break
                 the deal between Greece and its so-called troika of foreign
                 lenders - the European Union, European Central Bank and
                 International Monetary Fund - which have demanded structural
                 changes and austerity measures in exchange for aid.

                 Without the aid, Greece would not be able to meet its
                 expenses and would default on its debt, and send shockwaves
                 through the euro zone and the world economy.

                 Mr. Papandreou also said that he would seek a parliamentary
                 vote of confidence in his administration, just four months
                 after winning a similar vote before pushing an earlier batch
                 of austerity measures into law. The vote of confidence is
                 expected to be held on Friday evening, and Mr. Papandreou is
                 expected to squeak by with his narrow three-vote majority in
                 Parliament.
                 Government officials said the referendum would probably be
                 held in January, essentially buying the government time
                 while the details of the debt deal are hammered out.

                 Addressing lawmakers on Monday evening, Finance Minister
                 Evangelos Venizelos raised the stakes further by framing the
                 debate as one of Greece staying in the euro zone - the group
                 of 17 European Union countries that use the euro. \"It's for
                 the people to decide to stay in Europe or go back to the
                 drachma,\" he said.

                 Takis Michas, a political analyst and the project director
                 of Forum for Greece, an Athens research institute, said
                 posing the question this way was \"a master stroke on behalf
                 of Papandreou in the sense it is forcing the various parties
                 to take a very responsible position.\"

                 \"If he succeeds in framing the issue as being one of
                 remaining in the euro zone, obviously he is going to get a
                 huge yes,\" Mr. Michas added. \"But it depends on whether he
                 can frame the question in those terms.\"

                 Under the Greek Constitution, the government must propose
                 the language of the referendum, which would need to be
                 approved by Parliament and then by the president.

                 Some analysts said the referendum was an invitation for
                 instability. \"People are very discontented with him
                 personally and toward his economic policy, and in these
                 kinds of circumstances when the debate is very passionate
                 and things are tense, holding a referendum could be risky,\"
                 said Alexis Papahelas, the editor of the center-right daily
                 Kathimerini.

                 \"If the referendum fails, obviously everything will be in
                 disarray,\" he added. \"Probably we will go to elections, but
                 we have a very big chance that the country would go into a
                 disorderly default.\"

                 Last Thursday, after European leaders and the International
                 Monetary Fund had finally reached an accord, Mr. Papandreou
                 had hailed \"a new day for Europe and for Greece.\" But the
                 deal has proved broadly unpopular among Greeks, who do not
                 understand how it will translate into immediate relief.

                 Papandreou Calls on Greeks to Back EU Debt Accord in
                 Referendum
                 October 31, 2011, 9:05 PM EDT

                 http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-31/papandreou-calls-on-greeks-to-back-eu-debt-accord-in-referendum.html

                 Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou
                 said voters will give him support to forge ahead with
                 economic reforms as he pledged a referendum on the European
                 Union's latest accord on the nation's financing.

                 \"For the new agreement, we must go to a referendum for
                 Greeks to decide,\" Papandreou told lawmakers of his ruling
                 socialist Pasok party in statements carried live yesterday
                 from Athens on state-run Vouli TV. \"Democracy is alive and
                 well and Greeks are being called to rise to a national duty
                 beyond the regular electoral processes.\"

                 Papandreou's gambit risks pushing the country into default
                 if rejected by voters, and raises the ante with dissidents
                 inside his own party. Papandreou's popularity has plunged
                 after a raft of austerity measures cut pensions and wages,
                 increased taxes and sparked a wave of social unrest. An
                 opinion poll published Oct. 29 showed most Greeks believe
                 the accord on a new bailout package and a debt writedown is
                 negative.

                 \"Papandreou could lose the referendum, which means that new
                 elections would have to be called,\" Thomas Costerg, European
                 economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London, said in an
                 e-mail. \"Heightened Greek uncertainty could propagate to
                 other fragile euro-area countries, in particular Italy.\"

                 Most of the 1,009 people surveyed on Oct. 27, the day the
                 agreement was announced, said the accord should be put to a
                 referendum, according to the results of the Kapa Research SA
                 poll, published in To Vima newspaper. Forty-six percent said
                 they'd oppose the plan at such a referendum. In the same
                 poll, more than seven in 10 favored Greece remaining in the
                 euro.

                 Confidence Vote

                 Papandreou also told lawmakers he'll seek a vote of
                 confidence in parliament. The referendum will likely be held
                 after details of the EU accord are wound up, Papandreou
                 said. The vote of confidence will begin tomorrow and
                 conclude late on Nov. 4, according to statements yesterday
                 by House Speaker Filipos Petsalnikos.

                 EU leaders carved out a second aid package for Greece at a
                 summit in Brussels lasting into the early hours of Oct. 27,
                 after Papandreou scraped together parliamentary approval for
                 the second round of austerity measures in four months.
                 Greece will receive 130 billion euros ($180 billion) in
                 public funds plus a 50 percent writedown on Greek debt,
                 following a fully taxpayer- funded package of 110 billion
                 euros extended in May 2010.

                 Venizelos's View

                 \"I can no longer look at polls where the majority is against
                 the agreement, the majority is against the program, but a
                 majority is also in favor of staying in the euro,\" Finance
                 Minister Evangelos Venizelos said on Antenna TV after
                 Papandreou announced his decision. A \"no\" vote at the
                 referendum would lead to \"developments\" that the government
                 would assess, Venizelos said.

                 Papandreou, whose term ends in 2013, is seeking renewed
                 support to push through measures including job cuts to turn
                 around an economy that is set to shrink 5.5 percent this
                 year. The program involves new taxes and cuts in spending to
                 plug the EU's second-biggest budget gap.

                 The state budget deficit widened to 19.2 billion euros in
                 the January to end-September period from 16.7 billion euros
                 a year earlier, according to an e-mailed statement from the
                 Athens-based Finance Ministry yesterday.

                 Opposition parties repeated their call for elections.
                 Papandreou's plans are \"reckless\" and put Greece's EU
                 membership at risk, lead opposition New Democracy party
                 spokesman Yiannis Michelakis said.

                 `Dangerous'

                 Papandreou \"has tossed Greece's future in Europe in the air
                 like a coin,\" Michelakis said in an e-mailed statement from
                 ND's Athens offices yesterday. \"He is dangerous and must go.
                 There is a solution: elections now. It's the safest
                 `referendum.'\"

                 Papandreou now has just a three-seat majority in parliament
                 and won approval for his latest austerity package amid
                 protests that left one person dead. The budget measures
                 prompted a near- rebellion in Papandreou's party and
                 violence in the streets.

                 The New Democracy party, led by Antonis Samaras, would win
                 22 percent of the vote in elections, with Papandreou's Pasok
                 party receiving 14.7 percent, and neither getting enough to
                 form a majority in Parliament, according to the Kapa poll.
                 More than 26 percent of voters said they were undecided on
                 who to back. The margin of error is 3.09 percentage points.

                 Separately, the International Swaps and Derivatives
                 Association said that the euro-area proposals for Greek
                 bonds appear to involve \"a voluntary exchange that would not
                 be binding on all holders,\" according to an e-mailed
                 statement.

                 \"As such, it does not appear to be likely that the euro zone
                 proposal will trigger payments under existing CDS
                 contracts,\" the statement said. \"However, whether or not it
                 does so will be decided by the Determinations Committee on
                 the basis of specific facts, if a request is made to them.\"

                 The ISDA statement late yesterday follows a review of
                 whether the proposal would constitute a \"credit event\" for
                 holders of credit-default swaps linked to the securities.

                 --With assistance from Jennifer Ryan in London and Antonis
                 Galanopoulos in Athens. Editors: Digby Lidstone, Craig
                 Stirling, Kevin Costelloe

                 To contact the reporters responsible for this story: Maria
                 Petrakis in Athens at mpetrakis@bloomberg.net; Natalie Weeks
                 in Athens at nweeks2@bloomberg.net; Marcus Bensasson in
                 Athens at mbensasson@bloomberg.net

                 To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tim
                 Quinson at tquinson@bloomberg.net

                 Greek PM calls referendum on new EU aid deal
                 http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/31/us-greece-referendum-idUSTRE79U5PQ20111031
                 By Dina Kyriakidou and Harry Papachristou

                 ATHENS | Mon Oct 31, 2011 6:50pm EDT

                 (Reuters) - Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou called an
                 unexpected referendum on Monday on the EU bailout deal for
                 his debt-ridden country, a move that could necessitate a
                 snap election if a public angry with swinging austerity
                 measures rejects the deal.

                 Pressured by his own lawmakers to share the heavy political
                 burden of belt-tightening with other parties, Papandreou
                 said he needed wider political support for the fiscal
                 measures and structural reforms required by international
                 lenders.

                 \"We trust citizens, we believe in their judgment, we believe
                 in their decision,\" he told ruling Socialist party deputies.
                 \"In a few weeks the (EU) agreement will be a new loan
                 contract... we must spell out if we are accepting it or if
                 we are rejecting it.\"

                 Analysts said holding a referendum was a baffling decision,
                 given that the latest survey showed a majority of Greeks
                 taking a negative view of the bailout deal.

                 Opposition parties reacted angrily, accusing Papandreou of
                 looking for a way out for his embattled party by dragging
                 Greece, which has seen violent clashes between protesters
                 and riot police, through a lengthy period of political
                 instability.

                 The euro extended losses against the dollar after the
                 announcement, tumbling more than 2 percent to a session low.

                 Papandreou, grappling with Greece's worst financial crisis
                 in 40 years, had discussed holding a referendum but many
                 people were shocked at the prospect of weary, disgruntled
                 citizens being asked to decide whether to accept or reject
                 the bailout.

                 \"Mr. Papandreou is dangerous, he tosses Greece's EU
                 membership like a coin in the air,\" said conservative
                 opposition New Democracy party spokesman Yannis Michelakis.
                 \"He cannot govern and instead of withdrawing honorably, he
                 dynamites everything.\"

                 New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras will visit President
                 Karolos Papoulias on Tuesday to discuss developments and
                 push for snap elections, party officials said.

                 Weekend polls showed most Greeks took a negative view of the
                 decision by euro zone leaders last week to hand
                 cashed-strapped Athens a second, 130-billion-euro bailout
                 and a 50-percent write-down on its enormous debt to make it
                 sustainable.

                 \"I never expected Papandreou to take such a dangerous and
                 frivolous decision,\" said Dora Bakoyanni, former foreign
                 minister and leader of the small center-right Democratic
                 Alliance party. \"Tomorrow all the international media will
                 say that Greece itself is putting the EU deal at risk.\"

                 Germany issued a statement saying the EU was working hard to
                 put the second Greek aid package in place by the end of the
                 year and had no comment on the referendum. EU leaders
                 hammered out the deal last week, fearing the Greek debt
                 crisis would speed to other euro zone countries and shake
                 global markets.

                 \"If there was to be a referendum, we may reasonably conclude
                 that they may not accept the austerity measures. We may
                 conclude that it will bring the pack of cards tumbling
                 down,\" said Howard Wheeldon, senior strategist at BGC
                 Partners in London.

                 Papandreou also said he would ask for a vote of confidence
                 to secure support for his policy for the rest of his
                 four-year term, which expires in 2013.

                 Analysts said he was likely to win that, despite dissent
                 among his parliamentary team. He was forced to expel a
                 senior party member for voting against part of his latest
                 austerity package and others warned him it was the last time
                 they would vote for measures they did not believe in.

                 Parliament officials said the confidence debate would begin
                 on Wednesday, with a vote on Thursday or Friday.

                 LEGALITY QUESTIONED

                 Papandreou said the referendum would ask Greeks whether or
                 not they agreed to the deal and would take place in a few
                 weeks. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told Greek TV it
                 would probably be held early next year.

                 But parliamentarians questioned its legality under the
                 constitution, which does not allow referendums on economic
                 issues, only on matters of great national importance.

                 The last time Greeks held a referendum was in December 1974,
                 when they voted to abolish the monarchy shortly after the
                 collapse of a military dictatorship.

                 \"It's debatable whether the constitution allows such a
                 referendum,\" said Fotis Kouvelis, leader of the small
                 Democratic Left party. \"The country must go to early
                 elections. Given the situation, it's the most honorable
                 solution.\"

                 For a referendum result to be binding, there must be a
                 minimum 40 percent turnout on issues of \"crucial national
                 importance\" and 50 percent on a law that has already been
                 voted on in parliament and \"regulates a serious social
                 issue,\" according to legislation enacted earlier this year.
                 It was not clear which option the government would favor.

                 \"If the referendum answer is no, Papandreou has to resign,\"
                 said Costas Panagopoulos, an analyst at polling firm Alco.

                 \"In the meantime what will happen with the decisions the EU
                 took last week? I cannot understand what the prime minister
                 wants to do. It could be the only way he has to leave the
                 government, to share responsibility.\"

                 Nearly 60 percent of Greeks view Thursday's EU summit
                 agreement on the new bailout package as negative or probably
                 negative, a survey showed on Saturday.

                 Several lawmakers have defected from Papandreou's Socialist
                 party over the packages of austerity measures enacted to
                 qualify for bailout payments under last year's aid
                 agreement, and the party trails in opinion polls.

                 New Democracy is rising fast in opinion polls, but no party
                 would win outright if polls were held now, leading to
                 coalition governments or repeated elections.

                 \"The prime minister is obviously stuck in a dead end and he
                 is leading the country down a very dangerous slope,\" said
                 far right LAOS party MP Makis Voridis.

                 Greek Vote Threatens Bailout
                 Premier Calls for Surprise Referendum Days After European
                 Leaders OK Aid Deal

                     EUROPE NEWS
                     NOVEMBER 1, 2011
                  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204394804577010091283798750.html
                 By ALKMAN GRANITSAS, MARCUS WALKER and COSTAS PARIS

                 ATHENS-Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou stunned Europe
                 by announcing a referendum on his country's latest bailout-a
                 high-stakes gamble that could undermine the international
                 effort to preserve the euro.

                 A \"yes\" vote in the referendum could deflate the massive
                 street protests and strikes that threaten to paralyze Greece
                 as it tries to enact a brutal austerity program to earn
                 rescue loans from the euro zone and the International
                 Monetary Fund.

                 A \"no\" vote, however, could bring down the government and
                 cut off international funding for Greece, leaving the
                 country facing a financial meltdown. The government expects
                 to hold the referendum in January.

                 Some Greek government officials believe a defeat in the
                 referendum could propel their country out of the euro zone.
                 Many European policy makers fear that a messy Greek default
                 could spark a financial-market panic that would particularly
                 affect Italy, a major European economy that's already
                 struggling to retain investors' trust.

                 Mr. Papandreou's dramatic announcement, which he delivered
                 late Monday in a speech to lawmakers, renders the outcome of
                 Europe's debt crisis more uncertain than ever. It comes less
                 than a week after euro-zone leaders agreed on a
                 \"comprehensive package\" of measures to keep Greece afloat,
                 reassure financial markets and stabilize the region. That
                 agreement was supposed to ensure that Athens avoids a
                 unilateral debt default, restructures its debts in
                 cooperation with bondholders, and cuts its budget deficit
                 further in return for a EUR130 billion ($180 billion)
                 bailout.

                 With the fate of the deal in the lap of Greek voters, the
                 euro crisis is likely to dominate this week's summit of the
                 Group of 20 leading global economies in Cannes, France. For
                 months, the U.S. government has been pressing Europe to
                 resolve the two-year-old Greek debt crisis, which is
                 undermining investor confidence in ever-growing swaths of
                 the euro currency zone. The lingering uncertainty, in turn,
                 has hurt confidence in global financial markets, and the
                 looming referendum will only accentuate that.

                 The announcement in Athens roiled financial markets late
                 Monday, pushing the euro down 2.1% against the dollar to
                 $1.3859, the European currency's biggest one-day slide in
                 six months. Already-weak U.S. stocks sank further into the
                 red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst
                 daily decline in a month, falling 276.10 points, or 2.26%,
                 to 11955.01. \"Maybe the [Greek bailout] deal is in
                 jeopardy,\" said Stephen Leuer, a floor trader at X-FA
                 trading. \"Any sort of doubt is definitely going to set us
                 back,\" he said, adding that U.S. markets are \"very
                 sensitive\" to news from Europe at present.

                 Greece's embattled leader decided to go for a referendum as
                 a way of shoring up support for the drastic government
                 spending cuts and tax hikes that his country's parlous
                 finances have forced him to enact, Greek officials say.

                 Mr. Papandreou, who inherited a fiscal mess after winning
                 election in 2009 as head of a Socialist administration, has
                 had to slash Greeks' cherished welfare entitlements to
                 please the country's international creditors, in the face of
                 opposition from labor unions and parts of his own party.

                 Prime Minister George Papandreou announces a referendum on a
                 debt deal.

                 The mild-mannered, U.S.-born premier floated the idea of a
                 referendum earlier this year as public hostility to
                 austerity mounted, but he backed off amid fears that such a
                 move would be destabilizing for Greece and for Europe.

                 In recent weeks, however, public and parliamentary patience
                 with austerity and an ever-deepening recession has stretched
                 thin, weakening Mr. Papandreou's authority.

                 The government needs a stronger democratic mandate to
                 implement last week's bailout agreement with Europe and the
                 IMF, Mr. Papandreou told a stunned audience of Socialist
                 lawmakers on Monday. For that, he said, \"we need to go to a
                 referendum.\"

                 The question put to voters will be simple, he said: \"Do we
                 want to adopt the new agreement? Or do we want to reject
                 it?\" The popular verdict would be binding, he added. \"If the
                 Greek people do not want it to be implemented, very simply
                 it won't be implemented.\"

                 What would happen next is anything but clear. A binding
                 voter rejection of Europe's terms for a bailout would leave
                 euro-zone leaders such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel
                 and French President Nicolas Sarkozy with a bitter choice.
                 Either they let Greece default on its EUR355 billion of
                 public debt, risking panic throughout Europe's
                 government-bond markets and banking sectors; or they cave in
                 and offer Greece more generous bailout terms.

                 Relaxing Greece's bailout terms would anger voters in
                 Germany and other countries who are already resentful of
                 having to subsidize Greece, a country that is widely viewed
                 in Europe as having lived beyond its means for years. It
                 could also prompt other recipients of rescue loans-Ireland
                 and Portugal-to demand similarly generous treatment. That,
                 in turn, would test both the political tolerance and the
                 financial wherewithal of Europe's core economies to support
                 weaker euro nations.

                 A Greek referendum on its bailout, for the first time in the
                 two-year crisis, would put what many Greeks view as
                 draconian spending cuts demanded by Athens' international
                 creditors to a democratic test. The result of the vote could
                 reverberate around the euro zone, putting pressure on
                 governments in other European countries that are enacting
                 austerity measures to stem the debt crisis to ask for their
                 voters' consent.

                 Opinion polls suggest Mr. Papandreou faces a struggle to
                 convince an increasingly angry electorate. A survey
                 published at the weekend showed that 58.9% of Greeks oppose
                 last week's European deal; there are fears that the planned
                 debt restructuring will bring further pain while yielding
                 few benefits for the country.

                 The poll, the first since last week's bailout deal was
                 struck, showed that some 54.2% of Greeks thought a national
                 referendum should be called to approve the new aid deal,
                 while only 40% thought Parliament should decide.

                 However, Mr. Papandreou is betting that voters may approve
                 the bailout package if they are forced to confront the
                 alternative of national bankruptcy and a possible exit from
                 the euro.

                 Some Greek officials say the referendum question could be
                 worded in such a way that voters see it as a matter of
                 Greece's continued euro membership. The recent opinion poll
                 showed 72.5% of Greeks want to stay in the euro zone. \"The
                 actual meaning of the referendum is a choice between the
                 euro and the drachma,\" the traditional Greek currency, a
                 senior Socialist official said.

                 In a bid to shore up flagging support within his own party,
                 Mr. Papandreou also called for a fresh vote of confidence in
                 his government-just months after narrowly winning such a
                 vote in June.

                 On 10/31/11 2:22 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

                   vote of confidence and the referendum are two separate
                   things, not attached. He has already employed the vote of
                   confidence before and presumably could get it again. This
                   is why it was so important last week or so when the MP
                   resigned both party and seat so PASOK could put someone in
                   who was indebted to the party

                   The referendum is what im not sure he could win. Also will
                   be interesting to see which comes first

                   On 10/31/11 2:15 PM, Kristen Cooper wrote:

                     Well, if it has a confidence vote attached to it and
                     fails, Papandreou wouldn't necessarily be the one the EU
                     is negotiating with. There are a couple different
                     aspects here, but I don't think this was a move to
                     negotiate a better deal with the EU. This is as about as
                     good as deal as they could possibly hope for.

                     I think with a referendum, he's essentially calling the
                     public out - \"Look, this is the deal I got. Take it or
                     leave it.\" If its approved, then you undermine the
                     legitimacy of the people striking and protesting over
                     the deal. If if it fails - along with an attached
                     confidence vote - fails, then that means somebody else
                     has to come up with a concrete alternative to the plan -
                     which no one has credibly come forth with yet.

                     On 10/31/11 2:45 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

                       Remember that in September there were reports
                       (subsequently denied) that they would hold a
                       referendum on the Euro. This is just a referendum on
                       the new EU aid deal, but I imagine will serve a
                       similar political role

                       If it gets approved he has legitimacy. If it doesnt he
                       can better negotiate with EU I guess. Scary to think
                       what happens if its not approved...

                       Greece says not considering referendum on euro

                        http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/20/greece-referendum-idUSA8E7JO01720110920

                       ATHENS, Sept 20 | Tue Sep 20, 2011 3:41am EDT

                       (Reuters) - Greece denied a report on Tuesday that it
                       was considering holding a referendum on the country's
                       membership in the euro zone.

                       Kathimerini daily wrote on Tuesday, citing unnamed
                       sources, that Prime Minister George Papandreou was
                       considering calling for a referendum on whether Greece
                       should continue to tackle its debt crisis within the
                       euro zone or by exiting the single currency.

                       The government has long said it was planning a
                       referendum on political reforms but has repeatedly
                       denied that it would concern the country's euro
                       membership.

                       Asked if the referendum would be about staying in the
                       euro zone, deputy government spokesman Angelos Tolkas
                       said: \"No. We haven't discussed such an issue,
                       definitely not.\"

                       He said the government had put to parliament on Monday
                       a bill aimed at allowing the country to hold referenda
                       but without specifying any issue.

                       \"Yesterday we tabled a bill about referenda ... but we
                       have not discussed anything more than holding a
                       referendum.\" (Reporting by Angeliki Koutantou; writing
                       by Ingrid Melander; editing by Michael Winfrey)

                       Greece may hold referendum on euro zone membership:
                       report

                          
                       http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/20/us-greece-referendum-idUSTRE78J07W20110920
                       Mon Sep 19, 2011 8:57pm EDT

                       (Reuters) - Greece may hold a voter referendum on euro
                       zone membership as a way to strengthen the
                       government's hand in dealing with the debt crisis
                       within the euro zone or by exiting the single
                       currency, the Kathimerini English language newspaper
                       reported on its website on Tuesday.

                       Prime Minister George Papandreou is considering
                       calling for the referendum as pressure has mounted
                       from all sides with Greece's foreign creditors pushing
                       for quicker budget cuts, while large-scale citizen
                       street protests against austerity are held almost
                       daily, the newspaper said, citing unnamed sources.

                       A bill to be submitted in parliament, paving the way
                       for a referendum, is to be discussed in the coming
                       days, the newspaper added.

                       For the newspaper website, see: www.ekathimerini.com

                       Papandreou had earlier resisted any referendum, but
                       now thinks such a vote could bring a fresh mandate for
                       his Socialist government to continue with an austerity
                       drive backed by Greece's international lenders, the
                       newspaper said.

                       The cabinet is reportedly split, with several
                       ministers calling for drastic action including early
                       elections at an emergency meeting on Sunday, the
                       newspaper said, while others want to avoid a
                       referendum or new polls.

                       (Writing by Ed Layne in Singapore; Editing by Yoko
                       Nishikawa)

                       On 10/31/11 1:34 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                         Greece to hold referendum on new debt deal

                         (AP) - 10 minutes ago
                         http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jKv9sosbqxb_nvPl5iOA50fQfTkQ?docId=630021ce8f5d4b55b858d29d616e23c4
                         ATHENS, Greece (AP) - Greek Prime Minister George
                         Papandreou says his country will hold a referendum
                         on a new European debt deal reached last week.

                         Papandreou gave no date on other details of proposed
                         referendum on the deal that aims to seek 50 percent
                         losses for private holders of Greek bonds and
                         provide the troubled eurozone member with euro100
                         billion ($140 billion) in additional rescue loans.

                         Papandreou, addressing Socialist members of
                         parliament Monday, also said he would seek a vote of
                         confidence in parliament.

                         His Socialist government has seen its majority
                         reduced to just three seats in parliament and its
                         approval ratings plummet amid harsh austerity
                         measures that are likely to send the country into a
                         fourth year of recession in 2012.

                         Papandreou calls for referendum in Greece
                         Mon, Oct 31 2011, 18:18 GMT | FXstreet.com
                         http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=5ede6cce-fa68-4d8a-a580-14808203a3ad

                         FXstreet.com (Cordoba) - The Prime Minister of
                         Greece, George Papandreou called for a referendum to
                         ask whether to accept the new bailout or not. He
                         said he will call for a vote of confidence and
                         rejected elections.

                         It was reported also that the PM mentioned that the
                         government may need to nationalize some banks in
                         order to recapitalized them. After a period of time
                         the banks would be privatized.

                         Papandreou Says EU Decisions Will Relieve Greece of
                         Debt Burden
                         October 31, 2011, 1:43 PM EDT
                         http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-31/papandreou-says-eu-decisions-will-relieve-greece-of-debt-burden.html

                         Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister George
                         Papandreou said the country had secured a \"historic
                         decision\" at last week's summit of European Union
                         leaders that will allow Greece to \"look to our
                         future\" with less uncertainty.

                         \"The EU summit decisions open up a new era for
                         Europe and a new era for Greece,\" Papandreou said in
                         comments to ruling party lawmakers in Athens
                         televised on state-run Vouli TV today. The decisions
                         taken by EU leaders early on Oct. 27 will reduce
                         Greece's debt by about 100 billion euros, Papandreou
                         said.

                         To contact the reporter on this story: Marcus
                         Bensasson in Athens at mbensasson@bloomberg.net

                         Papandreou Says Greek Elections to be Held in 2013
                         as Scheduled
                         October 31, 2011, 1:55 PM EDT
                         http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-31/papandreou-says-greek-elections-to-be-held-in-2013-as-scheduled.html

                         Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister George
                         Papandreou said his government faced a challenge to
                         exploit the window of opportunity provided by the
                         decisions taken last week by European Union leaders
                         on a second financing package for the country.

                         Papandreou said the priority was to \"lock in\" the
                         decisions of the summit. He said elections would be
                         held as scheduled in 2013. He spoke in Athens in
                         comments televised live on state-run Vouli TV.

                         On 10/31/11 1:22 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

                           Greece to call referendum on new EU aid deal

                           http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/31/us-greece-referendum-idUSTRE79U5PQ20111031

                           ATHENS | Mon Oct 31, 2011 2:09pm EDT
                           (Reuters) - The Greek government will hold a
                           referendum on a new EU aid package, calling on
                           voters to say whether they want to adopt it or
                           not, Prime Minister George Papandreou said on
                           Monday.

                           \"We trust citizens, we believe in their judgment,
                           we believe in their decision,\" he told ruling
                           socialist party lawmakers.

                           Nearly 60 percent of Greeks view Thursday's EU
                           summit agreement on a new 130 billion euro bailout
                           package as negative or probably negative, a survey
                           showed on Saturday.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
                  

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
                

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com
              

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com
          

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: +1 512 744 4300 ex 4112
 www.STRATFOR.com
        

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +216 22 73 23 19
 www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Matthew Powers
 Senior Researcher
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 T: 512-744-4300 | M: 817-975-1037
 www.STRATFOR.com

 --
 Christoph Helbling
 ADP
 STRATFOR

 --
 Adriano Bosoni - ADP
","2011-11-01 15:49:40",1,"2012-02-29 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4568398_re-discussion-the-eurozone-s-doozy-step-.html","adriano.bosoni@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
4620686,"Plano =?ISO-8859-1?Q?Estrat=E9gico_de_Fronteiras_=28PEF=29?=
 =?ISO-8859-1?Q?_-__Strategic_Plan_for_Borders?=
","   Hi Karen, here is a more complete version of the PEF and Operations Agata
   1 and 3.
   I still have to add info on Agata 2, the other operations Cadeado and
   Atalaia, and the response of neighboring countries to the operations.
   Please, let me know if you find something else is missing.

   Link: themeData

      Plano Estrategico de Fronteiras (PEF) -  Strategic Plan for Borders

    

   Stated intention from the Dilma administration

   (R)   President Dilma launched the PEF in June of 2011.

   (R)   Its operations should cover more than 2,3 million square feet, or
   27% of the entire Brazilian territory.

   (R)   There are two main axes of the plan. The first is the strengthening
   of Operation Sentinela, successfully held by the Ministry of Justice since
   2010. Operation Sentinela is a continuing operation and focuses on
   \"intelligence actions\". Forces already involved in Sentinela - Federal
   Police, Federal Highway Police and National Security Force - will have the
   support of the Armed Forces.

   (R)   The second axis is Operation Agata. Unlike Sentinela, Agata is an ad
   hoc and temporary operation. It is based on increasing the presence and
   impact of forces involved in the border zone. However, Agata 3 has no date
   to end. Operations involve the following forces: Policia Federal (Federal
   Police), Rodoviaria Federal (Federal Higway Police) and Forc,a Nacional de
   Seguranc,a (National Security Force), with logistical support from Armed
   Forces.

   (R)   The PEF main goal is to fight organized crime and arms trafficking
   along Brazilian land borders, accounting for 16.8 thousand kilometers (a
   little more than 10,000 miles).

   (R)   The Brazilian border strip extends itself 150 kilometers within the
   Brazilian national territory, starting at the dividing line with the ten
   neighboring countries, comprising 11 states,  710 municipalities and a
   population of 10.9 million people.

   (R)   PEF has an initial budget of R$ 200 million. However, a media report
   published on Nov. 23 says that the Brazilian vice-president Michel Temer
   (in charge of PEF execution) stated that the investments are postponed to
   2012, given current \"economic conditions\". There was a budget cut of R$
   1,5 billion (not clear if the cut affected the national budget or the
   Ministry of Justice budget).

   (R)   Most common crimes in bordering regions: drugs, arms and people
   trafficking; tax and financial crimes such as illegal export of vehicles;
   environmental crimes and homicides.

   (R)   The PEF entails doubling the number of federal police presence in
   the border zone; improvement of Policia Federal facilities; and additional
   payment to officers deployed along the border, something to try to keep
   agents in border posts, some in inhospitable areas, with active gangs,
   traffickers and smugglers, and outbreaks of diseases.

   (R)   The PEF also foresees investments in new technologies, such as
   unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Brazil is expected to have 14 UAVs until
   2014 but only one has been in use up to November 2011, already counting a
   3 month delay.

   (R)   Number of border posts to be increased from 21 to 49.

   (R)   The PEF establishes the creation of  the Center for Joint Operations
   (Centro de Operac,oes Conjuntas, COC), where commanders of Agata and
   Sentinela participating forces will gather to plan and follow-up
   undertaken actions.

   (R)   According to the Federal Highway Police, the inspection of vehicles,
   documentation, and passengers' belongings is crucial due to the big
   incidence of stolen vehicles that are brought to Bolivia to be exchanged
   for drugs.

    

    

   Breakdown of operations 1,2 and 3 of Agata: Their duration, their scope,
   the resources deployed, ongoing missions, major successes/failures.

    

   Agata 1 - Started on August 5, 2011, ran for a month (Northern Region of
   Brazil), Rainforest region

   (R)   Brazilian Air Force deployed 35 aircrafts

   (R)   3,500 military in the region where Tabatinga and Sao Gabriel da
   Cachoeira municipalities are located, in the Brazilian border with
   Colombia.

   (R)   Operation aimed to intensify narcotrafficking combat, arms smuggling
   and diversion of arms and ammunition shipments, the illegal extraction of
   minerals and timber, wild animals trafficking, biopiracy, environmental
   crimes.

   (R)   The operation also serves to improve the coordination of the
   planning and execution of military and police operations, the
   intensification of the Brazilian State's presence in the region and
   increase support to the population residing in the border strip.

   (R)   In addition to these goals, the operation also seeks cooperation
   with neighbouring countries in the fight against illicit cross-border
   incidents.

   (R)    Joint operation involving the Brazilian Armed Forces, Federal
   Police, Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources
   (Instituto Brasileiro de Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais Renovaveis
   - IBAMA), Federal Tax Service of Brazil (Secretaria da Receita Federal -
   SRF), Rainforest Protection System (Sistema de Protec,ao da Amazonia
   -SIPAM), National Security Force (Forc,a Nacional de Seguranc,a),
   Brazilian Agency of Intelligence (Agencia Brasileira de Inteligencia -
   ABIN), and state level law enforcement in the state of Amazonas.

   (R)   For this operation, the Brazilian Ministry of Defence has made
   contact with Colombian authorities in order to allow the participation of
   the Colombian armed forces in Agata operation. Therefore, there was an
   expectation that the Colombian Forces would conduct operations in
   Colombian territory at the same time Brazilian forces would operate in
   Brazilian soil. This simultaneous actions would be bilaterally
   coordinated. (I have to check if this happened ot not).

   (R)   Planned actions: ban irregular landing tracks, docks clandestine and
   illegal mining, marine patrol and inspection in the rivers, blocking and
   control of roads, ostensive patrolling with law enforcement, control of
   aviation fuel at airports and aerodromes in the area of
   &#8203;&#8203;operations, civic and social actions in poor communities,
   specialized recognition of border, people pat-down, ships, aircraft and
   facilities inspections, operation of search and seizure, and interception
   of suspicious aircrafts.

   (R)   A Remotely Piloted Aircraft (ARP), model Hermes 450, participates in
   the operation. This is the first time thatan ARP is used in a real
   scenario, performing recoinassance missions along the border between
   Brazil and Colombia.

   (R)   Approximately 450 kilos of pirarucu (type of fish) were also seized,
   besides macaws and parrots seized with no documentation.

   (R)   Joshua Lima de Alencar, called Joca, accused of having killed in
   2011, Marcos Andre dos Santos Celane, 17, son of Marcelo Celane, former
   Tefe municipal legislator (523 kilometers from Manaus), was arrested
   during the inspection of Oliveira V vessel, at the time of the
   municipality of Alvaraes (531 kilometers of Manaus). The individual was
   fugitive from Justice.

    

    

   Agata 1 - results fron Aug 4 to Aug 17

    

   (R)   Two illegal mineral extraction sites were shut down in the Amazonia.
   One of them was located in the region of Serra dos Porcos, in Sao Gabriel
   da Cachoeira, 300 meters from the Colombian border. Four people were
   arrested in the operation and several makeshift shelters where garimpeiros
   (miners) lived were destroyed. The second mining site destroyed was
   located in the Serra dos Tucanos, North of Tabatinga and Villa Bitencourt.

   (R)   Three clandestine airstrips were destroyed. Two were bombed by four
   jets A-29 near the city of Sao Gabriel da Cachoeira, and the third one was
   destroyed in Villa Bittencourt, in the border with Colombia.

   (R)   A dump was notified by Ibama in Sao Gabriel da Cachoeira. To perform
   the operation, Ibama officials counted with military protection.

   (R)    1,096 people, 765 motorcycles and 159 cars were inspected during
   checkpoints in the border with Colombia. 3,674 pedestrians, 1,967
   motorcycles and 408 cars were searched in urban areas.

   (R)   An illegal logging facility was disabled in a region near Tabatinga.
   450 hardwood logs were seized,  summing around 350 cubic metres.

    

    

   Agata 2 - September 16, 2011 (Southern and Midwestern regions of Brazil)

   Conducted by the Southern Military Command (Comando Militar Sul), in
   municipalities bordering Paraguay, Argentina and Uruguay. (I will add info
   here)

    

   Agata 3 - November 22, 2011 (Northwest of Brazil)

   (R)   6,500 military employed in the operation, among Navy, Army and Air
   Force (3,500 men).

   (R)   The Brazilian Ministery of Defense says Agata 3 covers the largest
   area of &#8203;&#8203;operation of the Armed Forces in the border region,
   mobilizing troops and means in a range that covers five Brazilian states:
   Amazonas, Acre, Rondonia, Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul.

   (R)   Area of Agata 3 operations goes from Baia Negra, in the state of
   Mato Grosso do Sul, up to Tabatinga, in the state of Amazonas.

   (R)   Planned actions: ban irregular landing tracks, docks clandestine and
   illegal mining, marine patrol and inspection in the rivers, blocking and
   control of roads, ostensive patrolling with law enforcement, control of
   aviation fuel at airports and aerodromes in the area of
   &#8203;&#8203;operations, civic and social actions in poor communities,
   specialized recognition of border, people pat-down, ships, aircraft and
   facilities inspections, operation of search and seizure, and interception
   of suspicious aircrafts.

   (R)   Among the participating military, 5,000 belong to the Western
   Military Command and the Amazonia Military Command. Other 15,000 men are
   involved in the logistics of the operation, such as transport, health care
   and nutrition.

   (R)   Navy deployed vehicles from 2 commands: 6-o e 9-o Distritos Navais
   (Sixth and Ninth Naval Districts).

   (R)   Army deployed 2 thousand military along the border between the state
   of Rondonia and Bolivia.

   (R)   First day of operations counted with 57 aircrafts (hunt aircraft,
   helicopters, transport and reconnaissance aircrafts), 10 vessels and
   approximately 200 vehicles, including the Cascavel reconnaissance vehicle
   and the Urutu, armored vehicle used to carry troops.

   (R)   In the first day of operation, 56 hours of flight were used to
   perform transport missions, reconnaissance, interception and simulated
   attacks.

   (R)   Supporting agencies engaged in Agata 3: Brazilian Institute of
   Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (Instituto Brasileiro de Meio
   Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais Renovaveis - IBAMA), Federal Tax Service
   of Brazil (Secretaria da Receita Federal - SRF), Rainforest Protection
   System (Sistema de Protec,ao da Amazonia -SIPAM), Brazilian Agency of
   Intelligence (Agencia Brasileira de Inteligencia - ABIN), Brazilian Agency
   for Civil Aviation (Agencia Nacional de Aviac,ao Civil - ANAC), National
   Foundation for Indigenous People (Fundac,ao Nacional do Indio - FUNAI),
   Chico Mendes Institute for Conservation of Biodiversity (Instituto Chico
   Mendes de Conservac,ao da Biodiversidade -ICMBio), state level law
   enforcement unities from Acre, Amazonas, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul
   and Rondonia.

   (R)   Under the coordination of Joint Staff of the Armed Forces, Operation
   Agata 3 also includes civic and social actions bringing medical and dental
   care to the local populations.

   (R)   The Brazilian Air Force (FAB) relies on jet fighters F-5EM and A-29
   Super Tucano, in the cities of Tabatinga (state of Amazonas), Campo Grande
   (state of Mato Grosso) and Porto Velho (state of Roraima), to protect
   Brazilian airspace against illicit flights. These aircrafts receive
   support from airborne early warning and control aircraft equipped with
   radars capable of detecting planes flying low, the E-99.

   (R)   Besides the radar coverage made &#8203;&#8203;by the E-99 (airborne
   early warning and control aircraft), monitoring is also done by the DLRS,
   an acronym for Remote Data Link Station (Remote Data Link). These stations
   capture information sent by the aircraft and send them to the control of
   operations, where information from other radars are complemented by
   providing more precise control of the traffic of aircraft flying at low
   altitude.

   (R)   Brazilian Air Force point of support the during the Operation Agata
   3 is Campo Grande Air Base (Base Aerea de Campo Grande, BACG). The base is
   located in a strategic location, close to the tri-border area, also
   targeted by the operation. Aircrafts departing from the base during Agata
   3: SC-105 Amazonas, C-98 Caravan, R-99, E-99, F-5, A-29 Super Tucano and
   helicopters H-1H.

   (R)   Transport Squadron is also headquartered in the same base (Campo
   Grande). Aircrafts: Onc,a (1/15 GAv); search and rescue Pelicano (2/10
   Gav); hunt aircraft for aerial surveillance missions Flecha (3/3 Gav).

   (R)   Naval vessels used in the operation: Monitor Parnaiba (U17),
   transport ship Paraguassu (G15), tanker ship Potengi (G17), auxiliary ship
   Piraim (U29), Hospital ship Tenente Maximiano (U28), Hospital ship Dr.
   Montenegro (U16), River patrol vessel Amapa (P32), River patrol vessel
   Piratini (P14), River patrol vessel Piraja (P11), other 29 vessels and 3
   helicopters.

   (R)   Telecommunications resources: More than 100 people form the Command
   and Control (Comando e Controle , C2) section of the operation, working
   with 25 tons of equipment. To protect voice connections and transmission
   of information, participants of the operation are using secure channels
   connected by satellites operated by the Integrated Center for Air Defense
   and Air Traffic Control (CINDACTAs, Centros Integrados de Defesa Aerea e
   Controle de Trafego Aereo) of Brasilia, Curitiba (state of Parana) and
   Manaus (state of Amazonas).

   (R)   Agata 3 counts with more than 50 aircrafts (helicopters, fighters,
   transport aircraft and reconnaissance) operating in the cities of Campo
   Grande (Mato Grosso do Sul capital), Cuiaba (Mato Grosso capital), Vilhena
   (city in the state of Rondonia) and Rio Branco (Acre capital)

    

   Agata 3 results (so far):

    

   (R)   438 vessels were approached by the Brazilian Navy, six were notified
   by minor irregularities, and two were seized, for carrying passengers
   instead of cargo, what was allowed on its permit and for lack of
   documentation. The inspections occurred in a total of 16,550 km of
   waterways.

   (R)   Two cocaine traffickers were arrested in the Gaucho Trail (Trilha do
   Gaucho), a trail close to the Bolivian border managed by the Brazilian
   Army, considered military area and forbidden access. The alleged offenders
   tried to flee when approached by an Army patrol, but were stopped by
   soldiers and then sent to the Federal Police in Esdras, a checkpoint on
   the border between Brazil and Bolivia. The criminals were sent to prison
   in Corumba (Mato Grosso do Sul).

   (R)   Three motorcycles were seized because of modified chassis and lack
   of documentation.

   (R)   Control and inspection posts (PBCE - Postos de Bloqueio e Controle
   de Estradas) were established along the strip aimed by the operation, from
   Baia Negra, in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, up to Tabatinga, in the
   state of Amazonas, covering the border with Peru, Bolivia and Paraguay.
   Posts have sniffing dogs trained to detect illicit goods.

   (R)   In the mission the military used 7.62 rifles, 12 caliber rifles and
   pistols. A sniffer dog was also used to locate drugs in vehicles.

    

   Any bilateral treaties apply to the operations - already signed or
   underway.

   (R)   When the PEF was launched, Nelson Jobim, the Minister of Defense at
   the time, said Brazil would respect the sovereignty of neighboring
   countries. His statement: \"In the first moment we can seek for trading
   information with neighboring countries and, in a second phase, we can
   think of having joint operations with other countries.\"

   (R)   The first actions occurring at the borders involve only Brazilian
   operatives, but the Brazilian government (according to a media report) is
   negotiating operations with neighboring countries such as Venezuela,
   Colombia and Peru.

   (R)   On Nov. 28, 3 officials from Bolivian Army, Navy and Air Force were
   awaited in the city of Guajara Mirim (state of Rondonia) to watch Agata 3
   actions.

   (R)   On July 22, 2011, a media report mentioned that Brazil and Colombia
   would sign an agreement establishing joint operations against criminal
   activities in the common border. The agreement would be part of the PEF.
   (I have to check the status of this accord)

   (R)    Brazil and Colombia Agreement: On Aug 4, 2011, an agreement to
   increase security in the frontier area between Colombia and Brazil in the
   Amazon region has been signed. Colombian Defense Minister Rodrigo Rivera
   and his Brazilian counterpart Nelson Jobim signed the Bilateral Border
   Security Plan in the Brazilian town of Tabatinga, close to the Colombian
   border. The aim of the plan is to \"strengthen on a political and strategic
   level bilateral relations, in terms of security, and identify the illicit
   activities that constitute risks and threats to frontier security, with
   the objective of increasing the ability to confront them in a united
   manner,\" said the minister of defense in a communique. Colombia and Brazil
   share a 1,022 mileland border in an area with a small population subjected
   to the presence of illegal armed groups, especially guerrilla and
   narcotrafficking, and arms trafficking groups.

   (R)   Brazil and Bolivia Agreement: On Oct 31, 2011 Bolivia and Brazil
   inked a memorandum of understanding to strengthen joint efforts in
   fighting drug trafficking along their borders. The agreement would promote
   cooperation in fighting drug trafficking and other organized crimes,
   according to Brazilian Defense Minister Celso Amorim. According to the
   agreement, the armed forces of both countries will hold periodical
   meetings to coordinate on technical and operation issues for their mutual
   benefit. It also ratified operations of Brazil's unmanned aerial vehicles
   along the two countries' borders. Brazil would support its neighbor with
   radars, airplanes as well as unmanned aerial vehicles to safeguard the
   airspace of the two countries' border areas and crack down on illegal
   activities.

    

    

   Have the neighbors responded negatively? (Some squawking from Paraguay is
   to be expected.) Still have to check this

    

   There are other two operations happening simultaneously to Agata 3:
   Operation Cadeado and Operation Atalaia. I have information on it, but
   still have to translate it.

    

    
","2011-11-30 00:35:12",1,"2012-08-02 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4620686_plano-iso-8859-1-q-estrat-e9gico_de_fronteiras_-28pef-29-iso.html","kerley.tolpolar@stratfor.com","","hooper@stratfor.com,ben.west@stratfor.com",""
4966214,"[OS] RUSSIA/GEORGIA - Russia trying to \"enslave\" Georgia,
	president says
","","2011-11-22 18:58:11",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4966214_-os-russia-georgia-russia-trying-to-enslave-georgia.html","marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com","mailto:os@stratfor.com","os@stratfor.com",""
4984616,"wikileaks mirrored
","   In case the wikileaks.org site goes down again, I've mirrored it here:

    

   https://research.stratfor.com/cablegate.wikileaks.org/

    

    

    

   Kevin Stech

   Research Director | STRATFOR

   kevin.stech@stratfor.com

   +1 (512) 744-4086

    
","2010-11-28 23:07:52",1,"2012-03-01 23:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/4984616_wikileaks-mirrored-.html","kevin.stech@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
5008523,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - GERMANY/AFGHANISTAN - German security company
 in Afghanistan
","   Good work, Hoor.

   On 8/4/11 4:10 PM, Hoor Jangda wrote:

     Kunduz isn't part of phase 1 of the handover so there are foreign forces
     still in the province.

     On Thursday, 8/4/11 3:10 PM, Kristen Cooper wrote:

       Is Kunduz among the initial areas where they are trying to hand over
       security to the Afghan forces?

       On 8/4/11 3:50 PM, Michael Wilson wrote:

         PUBLICATION: Check with Hoor first
         SOURCE: New source, DE1000
         ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor source
         SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former intelligence analyst in Afghanistan.
         SOURCE  Reliability : (new source not sure yet)
         ITEM CREDIBILITY: (not sure yet)
         DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
         SPECIAL HANDLING:
         SOURCE HANDLER: Hoor

         This is someone that I spoke to post the Kunduz attack (August 2) at
         the German security office. These are the main questions I asked
         after the attack: There is quite a bit here. If you have any
         questions you want asked let me know.

         Questions I asked:
         What do you think will happen with Kunduz? does it appear that the
         security situation will get worse? Any idea what the Taliban
         structure in Kunduz is currently looking like?

         His response :
         Dear Hoor,

         Many thanks for your reply. It's great to discuss analytical
         intricacies with someone at Stratfor, which I've been reading and
         greatly appreciating as a subscriber for some 9 years now.

         The company, LANTdefence, actually belongs to EXOP GmbH, a small
         German security and intelligence firm. The main client base
         consisted of humanitarian organisations active in Afghanistan and
         Pakistan, particularly German ones. I traveled a lot to and within
         Pakistan for a corporate client, building up an intelligence and
         early warning infrastructure for their project sites. I still have a
         number of good contacts in the humanitarian and security environment
         in Afghanistan. Later this year I might actually go back to
         Afghanistan for a few weeks on a consulting assignment.

         Re. the situation in Kunduz: I visited Kunduz several times in 2009
         and 2010, and even back then, the security situation was decidedly
         worse than in Mazar and even Kabul. International aid workers could
         only move around the city with local escort. Whether the escorts
         were armed or not pretty much depended on the approach of the
         respective humanitarian organisation/company: The Germans (GIZ) were
         generally travelling without armed escort, while the UN and actors
         like DAI (contractor of USAID) had different approaches. The main
         character of Kunduz City has long been the fact that it is basically
         surrounded by Taliban or Taliban-friendly insurgents, who have also
         been known to have a permanent if somewhat subtle presence in the
         city. Insurgent influence on the city was always palpable - e.g.
         when I spent a few days there in May 2010 it was a fact of life that
         cell phones didn't work between 6pm and 5am because the Taliban
         forced the providers to switch off networks during the night.
         Western nationals working with aid agencies could generally not be
         present beyond city limits. Even locals working for Western
         organisations were increasingly threatened.

         The current situation in Kunduz has further deteriorated, compared
         to 2010, according to my contacts in Kunduz and Kabul. The German
         Bundeswehr which is based near Kunduz airport has dramatically
         failed in their stabilisation efforts, largely due to not
         understanding the concept of COIN. (I have talked to many German
         officers every time I was in Kunduz, and have researched the German
         COIN approach in my 2008 dissertation at King's College London.)
         This does not bode well for the future security situation in Kunduz.
         US forces are largely dictating the pace and degree of pressure on
         the insurgents, but NATO forces in the area are on the backfoot as
         everyone is well aware that NATO will leave within the next 2-3
         years. Local power brokers (Taliban, arbaki, corrupt police, ANA,
         etc.) are preparing to fight for the power gap that NATO forces will
         leave behind when they will eventually draw back.

         I am not too sure about the insurgent structure in Kunduz at the
         moment - at least I don't have a complete picture. However, I know
         from conversations with local police and foreign intel people there
         that apart from the local Taliban structure, foreign fighters have
         always posed a particular problem in Kunduz. There has always been
         talk about 'the Uzbeks', referring to Islamist militants from
         Uzbekistan who have been known to live in local safehouses in the
         city. Also, Kunduz police chief Aqtash told me in a 90-min meeting
         last year that there is a hotspot village about 20km northwest of
         Kunduz City where according to his estimates around 100 Haqqani
         militants or sympathisers are based. Furthermore, recent information
         from German authorities (and Youtube videos) show that there is a
         small but seemingly constant stream of jihadi fighters with German
         passports who join the insurgents in the Kunduz area. From what I
         know these are German militants who first take the usual route
         Turkey-Zahedan (Iran)-Pakistani tribal areas and are then moved on
         to Northern Afghanistan via Kunar/Nuristan and Badakhshan.

         Lastly, a few words on the 02 Aug attack in Kunduz. I agree with you
         in considering this a particularly interesting event. While it is
         not unheard of that local guards employed by international orgs get
         injured or killed in attacks, direct attacks on Western security
         companies are quite rare in Afghanistan according to my reading. The
         January 2011 attack on the 'Finest' supermarket in Kabul was such an
         attack, but in that case an individual XE employee had been tracked
         and assaulted while shopping at the supermarket. The attack now on
         LANTdefence (and their local partner Kabora) is therefore a
         significant thing in my view. Such a suicide attack after just one
         year of presence in Kunduz is certainly a setback - other Western
         security companies have operated in Kunduz for years without getting
         hit. The fact that the Taliban have hightlighted the attack in their
         claim of responsibility as being against a 'German intelligence
         centre' leaves no doubt that it was LANTdefence/EXOP that was the
         intended target. The problem for LANTdefence/EXOP were always the,
         let's say, close ties to German intelligence that did certainly not
         go unnoticed among local house staff, local guards and drivers etc.
         Plenty of opportunities for the Taliban to gather target intel, if
         the right sort of pressure is put on the families of local staff,
         for example. On the other side, almost all foreign security
         companies are rumoured to have intelligence ties, so the Taliban
         could very well have only done some guess-work.

         The attack was apparently meant to be a strong warning against the
         company, but was not actually designed to annihilate it completely.
         (The main LANTdefence office is in Kabul anyway.) I know the
         compound in Kunduz pretty well, and any attacker could have expected
         to run into resistance from anything between 6 and 10 armed guards
         and their German ex-army supervisors. Still, only two insurgent
         gunmen stormed the house after the initial blast that opened the
         main gate. They were not killed by responding police, but detonated
         their explosives belts themselves after 1-2 hours of firefight.

         The attack will certainly have implications for the security of
         foreign aid workers, especially Germans in the area and probably
         country-wide. As I said before, LANTdefence, partnering with Kabora,
         is responsible for all GIZ physical security all over Afghanistan.
         Now that LANTdefence themselves have become the target of an attack
         and have been singled out by Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid as
         'German intelligence', the company will be forced to drastically
         step up their own security measures, which leaves less bandwidth for
         protecting their clients. Also, if for example the Kabul HQ of the
         company would be attacked, the neighbouring GIZ building on one
         side, and the other neighbours, the French NGO ACF, would be
         severely affected as well. It is surely a problem when a security
         provider becomes a security risk themselves.

         Anyway - I could go on forever but have to cut short now. I hope my
         info is useful for you to even better understand the local context.
         As I said in my initial message, if you plan to incorporate some of
         the more sensitive info into your analyses, such as the background
         on LANTdefence/EXOP, that's fine, but please do not hint at whom you
         have it from. If you have questions on the above or on anything
         else, don't hesitate to get back in touch.

         Thanks and all best,

 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com


 --
 Hoor Jangda
 Tactical Analyst
 Mobile: 281 639 1225
 Email: hoor.jangda@stratfor.com
 STRATFOR, Austin
","2011-08-04 22:20:06",1,"2012-02-27 02:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5008523_re-alpha-insight-germany-afghanistan-german-security-company.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5034591,"[alpha] INSIGHT - AUSTRALIA/US - Issues Obama will address in OZ
 visit - CN65
","   **Source won't tell me who his source says but does say that he is in a
   very high govt position

   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes, see special handling
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: A/B 
   SPECIAL HANDLING: No attribution with any publication.  Please see me
   first if we use.
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

       
     Interesting question.

     Of course it is the 60th anniversary of the ANZUS. Defence issues could
     include:

     (as you said) basing of pre-delpoyed equiment in SBTA to get over issues
     to do with AQIS etc. It would include pre-positioning U.S. equipment in
     Australia,increasing access to test ranges bases and conducting more
     joint exercises and training. The US want increased military access and
     cooperation that will allow the U.S. to broaden its posture in the
     region. The shared base idea is part of U.S. efforts to diversify its
     Asian military footprint in a politically agreeable way.

      
     Afghanistan will also obviously be also a major topic
      
     Cyber-warfare is bound to be part of their agreement. This would be the
     first time that cyber-security appears in a bilateral US defence
     treaty.  I know that the Pentagon aims to discuss plans for bilateral
     offensiveoperations in the digital arena.

     The Defence Trade Cooperation Treaty,

     JSF

     Missile Defence

     Enhanced engagement of the US in the Asia-Pacific as a hedge against
     China.

     Space cooperation 

      Just some thoughts off the top of the head.

      
","2011-10-10 13:27:04",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5034591_-alpha-insight-australia-us-issues-obama-will-address-in-oz.html","ben.preisler@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5034740,"[alpha] INSIGHT - PNG/AUSTRALIA - O'Neill in Oz - CN65
","   In response to this question:  PNG PM O'neill is coming to Oz next week.
   Any idea what will be discussed? Any insight on the latest details on
   PNG-OZ?

   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   As regards O'Neill, he'll be interested in just one thing - money.  He
   will be wanting increased aid from Australia, and untied aid, i.e. direct
   budgetary support as opposed to aid tied to particular projects and
   administered by Australia.
   Gillard will be keen to get their feet on the sticky paper regarding
   offshore processing of asylum seekers on Manus Island, since the High
   Court struck down offshore processing in Malaysia.
","2011-10-10 01:07:45",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5034740_-alpha-insight-png-australia-o-neill-in-oz-cn65-.html","clint.richards@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5036753,"RE: Client Match -- Canada
","   Right -- thanks. Is either Valero or Rowan involved in the oil sands (tar
   sands)? My guess would be Rowan is more likely -- and if it is actually
   drilling there, that is important. Drilling for oil in the tar sands is
   enormously expensive, and these royalties could hurt development.
    
   And if the companies are involved, do we know what stage that royalty
   increase is at right now? (And the final amount?) Does it affect
   previously negotiated contracts, or only new ones?
    
   Thanks.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Mark Schroeder [mailto:mark.schroeder@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, February 22, 2008 3:04 PM
   To: 'Joseph de Feo'
   Cc: 'Reva Bhalla'
   Subject: Client Match -- Canada
   The government of the Canadian province of Alberta's recent decision to
   raise royalty taxes on oil sands extracted from the province. The tax
   increase is likely to have a negative impact that will slow future
   investment in Alberta's energy sector and lead to output to rise at a much
   slower pace. Alberta now produces about 1.1 million barrels per day of
   crude oil.
    
    
","2008-02-22 21:53:42",1,"2012-06-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5036753_re-client-match-canada-.html","defeo@stratfor.com","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,mark.schroeder@stratfor.com",""
5037583,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - PERU/ENERGY - Thoughts on Camisea
","   just fyi - i have zero knowledge of the geology of camisea, so i can't
   offer a guess as to whether gazprom can do it

   what i can  say is that gazprom doens't pay for investments elsewhere - it
   must be paid to do the work

   the one exception is partnership with ENI which are....squirrelly

   On 7/15/11 8:36 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     who is the source handler for this?   the alleged Russian bid to
     displace Pluspetrol and Hunt is definitely worth digging into given the
     client interest in Camisea. Lauren, is this something about which you'd
     be able to ask around?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Benjamin Preisler\" <ben.preisler@stratfor.com>
     To: alpha@stratfor.com
     Sent: Friday, July 15, 2011 8:30:56 AM
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - PERU/ENERGY - Thoughts on Camisea

     PUBLICATION: Yes if desired
     SOURCE: PE 502
     ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor Source in Peru
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: consultant following domestic unrest, energy and
     security
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY :  B- (anit-Humala)
     ITEM CREDIBILITY:  3-4
     DISTRO: Alpha
     SPECIAL HANDLING: n/a

     Source is pretty reliable for the first bit of information.  As for the
     second bit, I am less certain of his reliability.  Alexis Humala is
     Ollanta's brother and married to a Russian woman.  We do know that
     Alexis's trip, Humala's trip to DC  and the Russian publication of
     Alexis's visit did line up chronologically as stated in the insight.

     The consortium Camisea is very worried and asked for a meeting with me. 
     I had lunch with a manager from Camisea and offered them a wider range
     of services and coverage.  Telling them there is little risk under
     Humala would be a lie. 

     Alexis Humala's visit to Russia is a growing scandal. He went to
     negotiate matters related to fishing, gas and nuclear energy with a
     letter signed by Ollanta and Nadine.  They are now denying this, which
     could become something irrelevant in something very suspicious.  The
     Russians made the visit public due to Humala's meeting with Obama.  The
     Russians are very interested  in replacing Pluspetrol and Hunt oil. 
     They are already coming through the false/back door.  This is going to
     generate a reaction from the US Govt.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19
","2011-07-15 16:17:35",1,"2012-03-02 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5037583_re-alpha-insight-peru-energy-thoughts-on-camisea-.html","zeihan@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5038287,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged \"Anonymous\" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise \"anonymous\"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
","2011-11-10 19:47:39",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5038287_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5041325,"Re: Wikileaks exposes SA spy boss
","   oops, probably should not have said her name...

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Mark Schroeder <mark.schroeder@stratfor.com>
   To: Nate Taylor <nhtaylor1998@yahoo.com>
   Sent: Mon, January 24, 2011 9:55:39 AM
   Subject: Wikileaks exposes SA spy boss
   guess who the \"unidentified\" political officer is, and the Oct. 2009
   meeting is about the same time we were all meeting (coincidence?). the
   news24 link to the original cable turns up blank. we're still looking for
   another way to get the original cable.

   Wikileaks exposes SA spy boss
   2011-01-23 09:19
   http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/Wikileaks-exposes-SA-spy-boss-20110123

   Johannesburg - An explosive Wikileaks cable claims that spy boss and
   President Jacob Zuma confidante Moe Shaik threatened to expose the
   a**political skeletonsa** of Zumaa**s enemies and reveals that he was
   cultivated by the Americans as a key informant within the Zuma camp.

   The fresh revelations are likely to shake the Zuma administration as they
   involve one of the presidenta**s key allies and the man tasked with
   running the countrya**s secret service. They give new insight into the
   bitter battle which took place between Zumaa**s allies and those aligned
   to former President Thabo Mbeki prior to Mbekia**s ousting.

   The confidential US Embassy diplomatic cable a** titled Zuma advisor
   threatens to expose political skeletons- claims South African Secret
   Service boss Shaik, brother of convicted fraudster and Zuma funder
   Schabir, told the Americans that Zumaa**s legal team would subpoena the
   countrya**s most influential figures if he lost a bid to have corruption
   charges against him a**re-examineda**.

   The cable said he named Mbeki, the then suspended police commissioner
   Jackie Selebi, former director of Public Prosecutions Vusi Pikoli, then
   acting head of public prosecutions Mokotedi Mpshe as well as former 
   Speaker Frene Ginwala as targets.

   Shaik has refused to confirm or deny the claims.

   The cable a** one of 250 000 leaked to Whistleblower website Wikileaks but
   obtained exclusively by Media24 Investigations a** also reveals that the
   US Embassy in Pretoria actively cultivated Shaik as a key source of
   information on Zumaa**s inner circle and the a**motivations and strategies
   of the Zuma campa**.

   Dated September 10 2008, two days before corruption charges against Zuma
   were initially dismissed by Judge Chris Nicholson, the cable was sent to
   the Secretary of State in Washington DC and copied to US consuls in Durban
   and Cape Town, the CIA, the US Defence Intelligence Agency and the White
   House National Security Council.

   It is one of a number of classified cables recording meetings between
   Shaik a** who was controversially appointed head of the South African
   Secret Service (SASS), South Africaa**s foreign intelligence wing, in
   October 2009 - and an unidentified US embassy political officer.

   a**Shaik complained that all these people know Zuma is innocent and that
   he does not understand why they have not come to Zumaa**s defence before
   now,a** the cable noted.

   Shared insights

   The cable noted that a**as usuala** Shaik treated the political officer or
   a**PolOffa** as a**a friend, a child, a confidante, and an adversary all
   in the same conversationa**.

   a**He always shares insights into the motivations and strategies of the
   Zuma camp, but also expects obvious respect and gratitude for it.\"

   a**PolOff does not know if Shaik meets with other diplomats, but presumes
   his contact within the diplomatic circle is limited.\"

   a**The Australian High Commissioner mentioned he had met Shaik once
   before...and Shaik admitted he spoke to the Norwegians but did not say if
   this was on a regular or one-time basis.a**

   The cable notes that Shaik a**used to meet with the French, but cut them
   off after a French diplomat insulted him immediately before the ANC
   conference at Polokwanea**.

   Ousting Mbeki

   The political officer reported that the Irish ambassador had approached
   her to arrange a meeting with Shaik after seeing her and Shaik in a
   restaurant together, a**but Shaik refused, telling PolOff she should guard
   her contacts more closelya**.

   A source familiar with Shaika**s interaction with the US diplomats claimed
   this week that Shaik had been tasked with winning diplomats over to the
   idea of a Zuma presidency.

   An earlier confidential cable, dated May 16 2008 speculated a** after a
   meeting with Shaik a** that the a**Zuma camp may be looking to oust
   Mbekia**.

   In a cable, dated June 4 2009, that focused on President Zumaa**s new
   cabinet, Shaik is said to have described the appointments of various
   presidential advisers, among them Collins Chabane a** now minister in the
   presidency for performance monitoring, Ayanda Dlodlo a** now deputy
   minister of public service and administration, Mandisi Mpahlwa a** now
   envoy to Moscow, Lindiwe Zulu, Zumaa**s international affairs advisor and
   Bonisiwe Makhene as concessions to a**keep them quieta**.

   No comment

   Contacted this week, Shaik said: a**I will neither confirm nor deny that
   we had discussions with the Americans on these matters and I will
   definitely make no comment about the accuracy of those reports. The
   Americans must deal with accuracy.a**

   US embassy spokesperson Elizabeth Kennedy-Trudeau said the embassy would
   not confirm or comment on the contents or veracity of a**stolen
   documentsa**.

   a**The nature of cables in themselves is that these are one persona**s
   interpretation of a meeting, not official US public policy. The
   circumstances, because of the very nature of spot reporting are open to
   interpretation.a**
","2011-01-24 17:06:40",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5041325_re-wikileaks-exposes-sa-spy-boss-.html","nhtaylor1998@yahoo.com","","mark.schroeder@stratfor.com",""
5041709,"Re: Wikileaks exposes SA spy boss
","   very interesting.  Do you think Brooke knew about this??

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Mark Schroeder <mark.schroeder@stratfor.com>
   To: Nate Taylor <nhtaylor1998@yahoo.com>
   Sent: Mon, January 24, 2011 9:55:39 AM
   Subject: Wikileaks exposes SA spy boss
   guess who the \"unidentified\" political officer is, and the Oct. 2009
   meeting is about the same time we were all meeting (coincidence?). the
   news24 link to the original cable turns up blank. we're still looking for
   another way to get the original cable.

   Wikileaks exposes SA spy boss
   2011-01-23 09:19
   http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/Wikileaks-exposes-SA-spy-boss-20110123

   Johannesburg - An explosive Wikileaks cable claims that spy boss and
   President Jacob Zuma confidante Moe Shaik threatened to expose the
   a**political skeletonsa** of Zumaa**s enemies and reveals that he was
   cultivated by the Americans as a key informant within the Zuma camp.

   The fresh revelations are likely to shake the Zuma administration as they
   involve one of the presidenta**s key allies and the man tasked with
   running the countrya**s secret service. They give new insight into the
   bitter battle which took place between Zumaa**s allies and those aligned
   to former President Thabo Mbeki prior to Mbekia**s ousting.

   The confidential US Embassy diplomatic cable a** titled Zuma advisor
   threatens to expose political skeletons- claims South African Secret
   Service boss Shaik, brother of convicted fraudster and Zuma funder
   Schabir, told the Americans that Zumaa**s legal team would subpoena the
   countrya**s most influential figures if he lost a bid to have corruption
   charges against him a**re-examineda**.

   The cable said he named Mbeki, the then suspended police commissioner
   Jackie Selebi, former director of Public Prosecutions Vusi Pikoli, then
   acting head of public prosecutions Mokotedi Mpshe as well as former 
   Speaker Frene Ginwala as targets.

   Shaik has refused to confirm or deny the claims.

   The cable a** one of 250 000 leaked to Whistleblower website Wikileaks but
   obtained exclusively by Media24 Investigations a** also reveals that the
   US Embassy in Pretoria actively cultivated Shaik as a key source of
   information on Zumaa**s inner circle and the a**motivations and strategies
   of the Zuma campa**.

   Dated September 10 2008, two days before corruption charges against Zuma
   were initially dismissed by Judge Chris Nicholson, the cable was sent to
   the Secretary of State in Washington DC and copied to US consuls in Durban
   and Cape Town, the CIA, the US Defence Intelligence Agency and the White
   House National Security Council.

   It is one of a number of classified cables recording meetings between
   Shaik a** who was controversially appointed head of the South African
   Secret Service (SASS), South Africaa**s foreign intelligence wing, in
   October 2009 - and an unidentified US embassy political officer.

   a**Shaik complained that all these people know Zuma is innocent and that
   he does not understand why they have not come to Zumaa**s defence before
   now,a** the cable noted.

   Shared insights

   The cable noted that a**as usuala** Shaik treated the political officer or
   a**PolOffa** as a**a friend, a child, a confidante, and an adversary all
   in the same conversationa**.

   a**He always shares insights into the motivations and strategies of the
   Zuma camp, but also expects obvious respect and gratitude for it.\"

   a**PolOff does not know if Shaik meets with other diplomats, but presumes
   his contact within the diplomatic circle is limited.\"

   a**The Australian High Commissioner mentioned he had met Shaik once
   before...and Shaik admitted he spoke to the Norwegians but did not say if
   this was on a regular or one-time basis.a**

   The cable notes that Shaik a**used to meet with the French, but cut them
   off after a French diplomat insulted him immediately before the ANC
   conference at Polokwanea**.

   Ousting Mbeki

   The political officer reported that the Irish ambassador had approached
   her to arrange a meeting with Shaik after seeing her and Shaik in a
   restaurant together, a**but Shaik refused, telling PolOff she should guard
   her contacts more closelya**.

   A source familiar with Shaika**s interaction with the US diplomats claimed
   this week that Shaik had been tasked with winning diplomats over to the
   idea of a Zuma presidency.

   An earlier confidential cable, dated May 16 2008 speculated a** after a
   meeting with Shaik a** that the a**Zuma camp may be looking to oust
   Mbekia**.

   In a cable, dated June 4 2009, that focused on President Zumaa**s new
   cabinet, Shaik is said to have described the appointments of various
   presidential advisers, among them Collins Chabane a** now minister in the
   presidency for performance monitoring, Ayanda Dlodlo a** now deputy
   minister of public service and administration, Mandisi Mpahlwa a** now
   envoy to Moscow, Lindiwe Zulu, Zumaa**s international affairs advisor and
   Bonisiwe Makhene as concessions to a**keep them quieta**.

   No comment

   Contacted this week, Shaik said: a**I will neither confirm nor deny that
   we had discussions with the Americans on these matters and I will
   definitely make no comment about the accuracy of those reports. The
   Americans must deal with accuracy.a**

   US embassy spokesperson Elizabeth Kennedy-Trudeau said the embassy would
   not confirm or comment on the contents or veracity of a**stolen
   documentsa**.

   a**The nature of cables in themselves is that these are one persona**s
   interpretation of a meeting, not official US public policy. The
   circumstances, because of the very nature of spot reporting are open to
   interpretation.a**
","2011-01-24 17:06:08",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5041709_re-wikileaks-exposes-sa-spy-boss-.html","nhtaylor1998@yahoo.com","","mark.schroeder@stratfor.com",""
5044499,"Re: [Africa] Nigeria - Nigeria frees Halliburton staff	as	probe	continues
","   this case has been dragging on. Halliburton has pled guilty to bribery,
   but they may not yet have paid the fines, and this could be a way to get
   them to cough up. They can also be a mix of Nigerian personal grudges
   going on to complicate this, but these fines are big money that someone is
   counting on.

   On 11/29/10 8:11 AM, Bayless Parsley wrote:

     just a quick sweep of OS indicates that the case is still ongoing; these
     recent raids (which sounded pretty intense) led to the brief arrest of
     12 people in total, 2 of whom did not work for Halliburton -- mixture of
     expats and Nigerians

     Halliburton is saying \"that was not us; that was KBR,\" which only split
     from Halliburton in 2007, after the alleged bribe payments were made

     don't know of any deeper meaning behind this off the top of my head; am
     not very educated on the details of the Halliburton case. if this is a
     client priority, let me know, and i will devote some time to it today

     Nigeria detains 12 in U.S. firm bribery case

     By Nick Tattersall and Anna Driver, Reuters

     Last Updated: November 28, 2010 1:48am

     http://www.torontosun.com/news/world/2010/11/28/16349001.html

     LAGOS - Nigeria's anti-corruption police have raided the offices of the
     U.S. oilfield services group Halliburton and arrested 12 people in a
     bribery case involving the former Halliburton unit KBR Inc, a spokesman
     said on Saturday.
     The U.S. firm said the detentions, carried out on Thursday, had no legal
     basis and that its employees had since been freed.

     The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) said it had detained
     10 Halliburton staff for questioning and one senior employee each from
     oil services firms Saipem Contracting Nigeria Ltd and Technip Offshore
     Nigeria Ltd.

     Eni, Saipem's parent company, declined to comment.
     \"We are still looking for the (local) managing director of Halliburton,\"
     EFCC spokesman Femi Babafemi said.
     Those detained in the raid, carried out with the assistance of armed
     police, included Giuseppe Surace, believed to be Saipem's country
     manager, and Frank Pliya from Technip, as well as a mixture of
     expatriates and Nigerians, Babafemi said.

     Halliburton said in a statement that its employees were not connected
     with the case, and that they had all subsequently been released.

     \"Nigerian authorities entered the offices of Halliburton in Lagos,
     ransacked the property, assaulted personnel and took a number of
     non-managerial employees into custody ... this action had no legal
     basis,\" its statement said.

     Houston-based engineering firm KBR pleaded guilty last year to U.S.
     charges that it paid $180 million in bribes between 1994 and 2004 to
     Nigerian officials to secure $6 billion in contracts for the Bonny
     Island liquefied natural gas (LNG) project.

     KBR and Halliburton reached a $579 million settlement in the United
     States but Nigeria, France and Switzerland have conducted their own
     investigations into the case.
     KBR split from Halliburton in 2007.

     \"The Halliburton oil field services operations in Nigeria have never in
     any way been any part of the LNG project, and none of the Halliburton
     employees have ever had any connection to or participation in that
     project,\" Halliburton said.

     A former aide to Nigerian ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo pleaded not
     guilty in October to six counts of money laundering in relation to the
     case between 2002-2003, including accepting $1.5 million in bribes.

     His case was adjourned to Dec. 16.

     EFCC raids Halliburton office in Lagos
     By Ifedayo Adebayo and Olugbenro Adeoye

     November 26, 2010 02:13AM

     http://234next.com/csp/cms/sites/Next/News/Metro/Crime/5646736-146/efcc_raids_halliburton_office_in_lagos.csp

     Operatives of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission Thursday
     afternoon conducted a raid on the Lagos office of Halliburton, Technip
     and Snamprogetti and officials (mostly expatriates) were arrested.

     During the raid which was backed by a contingent of armed policemen,
     officials of the companies said EFCC officials ransacked their offices
     and pushed the staff around before taking away documents and some
     officials of the company.
     Speaking to our reporter, Femi Babafemi, the commissions' spokesperson,
     said the raid was the result of new discoveries and the latest
     development in its investigation of the American oil services firm's
     alleged corrupt practices.

     \"I don't have the details yet, but I know that three MD's of Technip and
     Halliburton, three of them were arrested,\" Mr Babafemi said.

     Halliburton has been sanctioned in the UN for its role in a
     multi-billion dollar scandal involving the Nigerian Liquified Gas
     industry. As NEXT reported in past editions, at least three former
     presidents, Sani Abacha, Abdusalami Abubakar and Olusegun Obasanjo were
     implicated as recipients of bribes from American and European
     contractors retained to build Africa's first liquefied natural gas plant
     in Bonny, Rivers State by US law enforcement officials.
     Yesterday's raid, according to Mr. Babafemi, is related to the ongoing
     case.

     \"It is the same Halliburton case. We just go back into the case based on
     fresh information that we have,\" he said.

     Eye witnesses of the EFCC action said the anti-graft officials, who
     arrived at the company's premises around 10 am, blocked both ends of the
     Younis Bashorun Street where the company is located.

     The officials, who numbered be eight, came in two vehicles containing
     EFCC officials and police officers.

     Like a robbery
     They were, however, criticised for the manner of operation, which was
     likened to an \"armed-robbery attack in broad daylight.\" An early text
     message to NEXT warned of a robbery attack on the company's premises.
     A trader, who identified himself as Musa, said: \"E be like say we dey
     watch film; we just dey hear noise and we see them as dem dey beat some
     of the workers, and later dem dey push dem inside motor by force.\"

     A company staff also alleged that anti-graft officials physically
     assaulted them.

     One of the company's security officers on duty, who pleaded anonymity,
     said: \"They were wearing red jackets, but they did not introduce
     themselves to us. When they came, they ordered all of the security men
     to enter inside and they said we should drop our phones. One of us was
     beaten mercilessly for asking them questions. Another one, they said he
     wasted their time by not giving them his phone on time. That was his
     crime. They beat him seriously.\" A senior official of the company, who
     also spoke on condition of anonymity, described the experience as
     \"unfortunate.\" \"There is nothing wrong in making an arrest, but it must
     be done properly,\" he said, while narrating his experience. \"They only
     came in to harass and assault us; they were beating people up, including
     the women. The arrests were made randomly, because they did not bother
     to ask for any names, apart from the Managing Director, who was not in.
     It was like a robbery operation; some of the staff who did not know
     initially that they were EFCC officials hid themselves in the toilet for
     over an hour. We all thought they were a bunch of militants. There was a
     lot of confusion in the place. They were wielding their guns and
     everyone was afraid; it was so disgusting.\"a

     FG strikes deal with Siemens to withdraw charges
     By Gowon Emakpe

     November 23, 2010 01:31AM

     http://234next.com/csp/cms/sites/Next/Home/5645312-146/fg_strikes_deal_with_siemens_to.csp
     In a deal similar to one initiated with the international companies
     involved in the Halliburton bribery scandal, the federal government
     yesterday withdrew bribery charges against Siemens transnational
     corporation.

     Attorney General of the federation and Minister of Justice, Mohammed
     Adoke, told a press conference that the government's decision to
     discontinue the criminal prosecution against the multinational
     telecommunications giant was borne out of the company's sober expression
     of regret and its undertaking to be of good conduct in all its future
     business dealings in the country.
     The company also agreed to pay a fine of N7 billion [~$46 million],
     three times the amount of bribes it was accused of giving, and promised
     to put in place a committee comprising of two nominees of the federal
     government, to monitor its activities.

     \"The heavy fines that have been imposed on Siemens, apart from the
     deterrence effect, will go a long way in financing infrastructural
     delivery in the country,\" Mr. Adoke said.

     \"I appreciate the yearnings of some Nigerians for jail sentences to be
     imposed on those who contribute to the economic adversity of the country
     by way of corrupt practices, but the restitution that has been done in
     the case of Siemens is important in the overall process of redeeming the
     image of the country,\" he added.
     In September, the federal government said it had dropped criminal
     charges against construction giant, Julius Berger Plc, and its staff
     that were charged, along with Adeyanju Bodunde, a special assistant to
     former president Olusegun Obasanjo, for complicity in the $180 million
     Halliburton bribery scandal.

     Case continues

     Consequently, Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), which was
     supposed to arraign the suspects before Justice Danlami Senchi at an
     Abuja High Court on an amended 35-count charge yesterday, removed the
     company from its list of suspects in the case.

     The remaining accused persons, former executive director `of the Power
     Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN), Maigada Shuaibu; former permanent
     secretary of the ministry of power and steel, Mahmood Sadiq Mohammed;
     former Nigeria Telecommunications (NITEL) general manager of finance,
     Emmanuel Chukwuemeka Ossai; and former MTEL managing director, Edwin
     Moore Momife, had asked for more time to enable them look at the EFCC's
     charges against them.

     The suspects will, therefore, appear before Justice Senchi on Tuesday to
     answer to the new 18-count charges against them.

     In 2002, the accused persons were accused of conspiring with Siemens to
     accept valuable things and sponsoring themselves and their relations to
     trips to foreign countries.

     On 11/29/10 7:12 AM, Anya Alfano wrote:

       Do we have any information on why they chose to detain the Halliburton
       staff now, so many years after the fact?  Are they trying to move
       forward with the case again, or is there something else at work?

       -------- Original Message --------

        Subject: [OS] NIGERIA/GV/CT - Nigeria frees Halliburton staff as      
                 probe continues                                              
           Date: Mon, 29 Nov 2010 06:36:48 -0600                              
           From: Clint Richards <clint.richards@stratfor.com>                 
       Reply-To: The OS List <os@stratfor.com>                                
             To: The OS List <os@stratfor.com>                                

       Nigeria frees Halliburton staff as probe continues

       http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE6AS0A820101129?sp=true

       Mon Nov 29, 2010 11:45am GMT

       ABUJA (Reuters) - Nigeria's anti-corruption police said on Monday
       employees of U.S. oilfield services group Halliburton arrested last
       week in a bribery case have been freed, but must stay in the country
       pending further investigations.

       The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) detained 10
       Nigerian and expatriate Halliburton staff for questioning as well as
       one senior employee each from oil firms Saipem Contracting Nigeria Ltd
       and Technip Offshore Nigeria Ltd.

       The arrests relate to a bribery case involving the U.S. firm's former
       unit KBR. The companies split in 2007 and Halliburton has said it is
       not connected with the case.

       A spokesman for the EFCC said the detainees, taken into custody on
       Thursday, had been released because under law they could not be held
       for more than two days, but said they would remain in Nigeria until
       investigations had been completed.

       \"We can't keep them for more than 48 hours. Their travel documents
       have been detained pending the investigation ... they cannot leave the
       country,\" EFCC spokesman Femi Babafemi said.

       Houston-based engineering firm KBR pleaded guilty last year to U.S.
       charges that it paid $180 million in bribes between 1994 and 2004 to
       Nigerian officials to secure $6 billion in contracts for the Bonny
       Island liquefied natural gas (LNG) project.

       KBR and Halliburton reached a $579 million settlement in the United
       States but Nigeria, France and Switzerland have conducted their own
       investigations into the case.

       Halliburton said it was not involved in the LNG development, its
       employees have never participated in any work on the project and the
       EFCC raid last week had no legal basis.

       It said its offices were ransacked and personnel assaulted during last
       week's raid in what it described as \"an affront against justice\".

       \"What we are doing is based on fresh information,\" Babafemi said. \"It
       is illogical to say we acted illegally. As long as the laws of the
       country are upheld there is nothing illegal in what we are doing.\"

       A former aide to Nigerian ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo pleaded not
       guilty in October to six counts of money laundering in relation to the
       case between 2002-2003, including accepting $1.5 million in bribes.

       His case was adjourned to December 16.
","2010-11-29 15:16:34",1,"2012-03-01 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5044499_re-africa-nigeria-nigeria-frees-halliburton-staff-as-probe.html","mark.schroeder@stratfor.com","","anya.alfano@stratfor.com,bayless.parsley@stratfor.com,tactical@stratfor.com,africa@stratfor.com",""
5044727,"Opportunities for Russia and China in Greek Privatization
","    Stratfor logo                                                             
   Opportunities for Russia and China in Greek Privatization                  
                                                                              
    June 9, 2011 | 2000 GMT                                                   
    Opportunities for Russia and China in Greek Privatization                 
    SAKIS MITROLIDIS/AFP/Getty Images                                         
    Shipping containers at the Greek port of Thessaloniki                     
    Summary                                                                   
                                                                              
    Greece's eurozone partners are demanding that Athens accelerate sales of  
    public assets and allow an independent agency, likely to be heavily       
    influenced by Germany, to lead the privatization drive. There is a risk   
    that Greece's ruling PASOK party could rebel against Prime Minister       
    George Papandreou and eurozone austerity measures. But the more           
    significant long-term issue is that Russia and China could use the        
    privatization to snatch up strategic Greek assets.                        
                                                                              
    Analysis                                                                  
                                                                              
    Greece's privatization efforts have become central for the new            
    approximately 65 billion to 70 billion euro ($94 billion to $101          
    billion) bailout package being finalized by eurozone member states and    
    expected to be approved by the June 20 eurozone finance ministers'        
    meeting. As the chief condition of the new bailout plan, Greece's         
    eurozone partners are demanding that Athens speed up its sale of          
    publicly held assets and shift the responsibility of privatization from   
    the government to an independent agency that would, sources tell          
    STRATFOR, have considerable input from foreign governments. In other      
    words, Greece needs to sell about 50 billion euros worth of public        
    assets by 2015 and on terms that satisfy Germany and other eurozone       
    countries, regardless of the preferences of the Greek state, which owns   
    the assets, or the Greek public, which depends on them for employment.    
                                                                              
    Greek privatization is a divisive issue that is threatening Prime         
    Minister George Papandreou's hold over his ruling PASOK party. There is   
    a danger PASOK could revolt against Papandreou and eurozone austerity     
    measures, putting Europe's bailout efforts into question and worsening    
    the sovereign debt crisis in Portugal and Spain. The long-term issue,     
    however, is the effect that such wide-scale privatization will have on    
    strategic Greek assets, such as ports and pipelines, which could find     
    interested investors in Russia and China, giving these powers a backdoor  
    into Europe's transportation and energy infrastructure.                   
                                                                              
     Pain of Privatization                                                    
                                                                              
    The new eurozone bailout plan has caused a political crisis in Greece.    
    The planned privatization of state enterprises means further layoffs of   
    public sector workers, and the Greek unemployment rate is already at      
    16.2 percent, more than 3 percent higher than a year ago. Employees of    
    Greek power utility PPC, telecommunication company OTE, and water         
    utilities EYDAP and EYATH have called a 24-hour strike for June 9 to      
    protest the privatization efforts, while the main private and public      
    sector unions, GSEE and ADEDY, will organize a general strike in the      
    country June 15.                                                          
                                                                              
    Privatization, under most conditions, is painful. Inefficiencies built    
    into public companies due to political logic - such as redundant          
    employment, subsidized pricing of goods and services, and wage inflation  
    - are unraveled, to the consternation of a large segment of the           
    population. Furthermore, management positions in publicly held utilities  
    and businesses are often lucrative posts, which political leaders use to  
    reward party loyalists, or are often directly funded from the revenue of  
    the public companies. Thus, the workers facing unemployment and the       
    citizens protesting higher prices for goods and services are not alone    
    in resisting privatization; political elites, who are left without        
    important sources of economic revenue and patronage, also oppose it.      
    This is why, historically, successful and thorough privatization drives   
    require a political outsider in the country to take control and use       
    privatization to evict established and entrenched elites.                 
                                                                              
    Papandreou and PASOK are not at all political outsiders. Although it was  
    out of power for five years before defeating the center-right Nea         
    Dimokratia in 2009, PASOK had led the country for 20 years beginning in   
    1974. Therefore, the greatest danger in terms of opposition to            
    privatization is not from the mounting protests and strikes on the        
    streets of Athens and other Greek cities, which are largely apolitical    
    and offer no real alternative to the ruling party, but from Papandreou's  
    own party.                                                                
                                                                              
    The events of the next few weeks will be crucial for Papandreou's         
    ability to retain control of his party. Because PASOK's popularity has    
    declined significantly, early elections would not benefit its members.    
    However, Papandreou may be able to use the prospect of being voted out    
    of office to scare dissenting members of parliament into supporting the   
    new austerity measures. This depends on a number of factors, including    
    that street protests do not become violent or get out of control, which   
    is not likely.                                                            
                                                                              
    Opportunities for Russia and China in Greek Privatization                 
    (click here to enlarge image)                                             
                                                                              
     Opportunities in Privatization                                           
                                                                              
    A painful privatization drive for Greece, however, presents               
    opportunities for others to gain assets at potentially below market       
    value. German companies are interested in a number of Greek assets,       
    which is certain to frustrate the Greeks, who see the forced              
    privatization drive as a loss of sovereignty and a plot by Berlin to      
    cheaply acquire control of potentially lucrative companies. On June 6,    
    as the new bailout agreement was being negotiated, Germany's Deutsche     
    Telekom acquired a 10 percent stake in Hellenic Telecommunications (OTE)  
    for around 400 million euros, giving the German company a 40 percent      
    stake plus one share in OTE. Athens is looking to sell another 6 percent  
    of OTE to Deutsche Telekom, but the German telecommunication company has  
    said it would invest further only if given full control over OTE's labor  
    policies, which will enable significant layoffs - another example of how  
    privatization can lead to social unrest.                                  
                                                                              
    Russian and Chinese companies also are looking to use Greek               
    privatization for geopolitical gain. For China, Greece is an interesting  
    strategic entry point into emerging markets in Central and Eastern        
    Europe. China would use the Greek ports of Piraeus and Thessaloniki to    
    bring its goods to the Balkans, former Soviet countries like Ukraine and  
    Belarus, and Central European EU states like Hungary, Slovakia and        
    Poland. Beijing's logic is that it could expand its trade in Central and  
    Eastern European countries where, considering the region's generally      
    lower income compared to Western Europe, the price point for Chinese      
    exports would be highly competitive. China Ocean Shipping Co. (COSCO)     
    made an investment in Piraeus in June 2010, leasing two container         
    terminals for 35 years at a price of around $5 billion. COSCO's interest  
    also was piqued when the Greek government announced plans to privatize    
    its entire 75 percent stake in the Piraeus port authority, and the        
    Chinese company wants to expand its investment both there and in          
    Thessaloniki.                                                             
                                                                              
    Russia is interested in using Greece to block a key European alternative  
    route for natural gas supplies. The European Union, which currently gets  
    around a quarter of its natural gas from Russia, is looking for           
    alternatives to Russian-dominated natural gas transportation pipelines.   
    At the forefront of the union's plans is the \"southern gas corridor,\"     
    which is essentially an amalgamation of several different projects that   
    would bring Azerbaijani and potentially Central Asian or Middle Eastern   
    natural gas into Europe via Turkey. Greece is an important component of   
    this plan since it rests on one route by which natural gas piped through  
    Turkey would enter the European Union - the other option would be to run  
    north through Bulgaria and Romania. From Greece, any proposed natural     
    gas pipelines would have to make the short jump across the Strait of      
    Otranto to Italy.                                                         
                                                                              
    Opportunities for Russia and China in Greek Privatization                 
                                                                              
    There currently are a number of proposed pipeline projects that would     
    constitute the EU southern gas corridor, of which three are central. The  
    Nabucco pipeline is supposed to take the northern route from Turkey to    
    Austria via the Balkan EU member states. Two other pipelines would take   
    the southerly route from Turkey into Greece - the proposed                
    Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) and the Interconnection                     
    Turkey-Greece-Italy (ITGI), of which the planned Poseidon offshore        
    pipeline is the underwater part from Greece to Italy.                     
                                                                              
    The Greek government is directly involved in the ITGI project through     
    its ownership of the Greek public natural gas company DEPA, which is      
    collaborating with privately held Italian natural gas company Edison.     
    The key for Russia, specifically natural gas giant Gazprom, lies in this  
    particular southern corridor project. The proposed privatization of DEPA  
    is therefore an interesting opportunity for the Kremlin. Gazprom has had  
    its eyes on ITGI for years, negotiating with DEPA in 2010 to potentially  
    gain an ownership stake in the project. The deal seems to have fallen     
    through, with Gazprom now concentrating on the Greek plan to privatize    
    DEPA - as much as 32 percent may be up for sale. This would give Moscow   
    considerable influence when decisions are made about whose natural gas    
    ITGI carries, turning ITGI from an alternative to Russian natural gas to  
    an enabler of continued Gazprom dominance of Europe's natural gas         
    market.                                                                   
                                                                              
    The key question is whether Greece's eurozone neighbors will try to       
    prevent China and Russia from gaining access to these geopolitically      
    strategic assets. It is assumed that the new privatization agency,        
    independent from Athens, would be heavily influenced by Germany since     
    Berlin is contributing the most cash for the Greek bailouts. Still, it    
    is unlikely that Berlin would look to ensure that Athens' strategic       
    assets are purchased by fellow eurozone member states and not by Russia   
    and China. Germany, an exporter of high-end, capital-intensive goods,     
    does not consider China's low-cost goods export competition, which means  
    there is no reason for Berlin to prevent Beijing's access to Eastern and  
    Central European markets. Second, Germany has a budding political         
    relationship with Russia, including a solid relationship between          
    Germany's E.ON Ruhrgas and Gazprom. It therefore is unlikely that Berlin  
    will do much to block Gazprom's designs in Greece either. Considering     
    that Germany is expected to have the greatest influence in decisions      
    made by the new privatization agency - and that Berlin's interest is      
    ultimately to get Athens to raise as much cash as possible - Berlin is    
    not likely to stand in the way of Russia and China in Greece.             
                                                                              
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    (c) Copyright 2011 Stratfor. All rights reserved.                         
","2011-06-09 23:25:49",1,"2012-03-02 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5044727_opportunities-for-russia-and-china-in-greek-privatization-.html","noreply@stratfor.com","mailto:stratforaustin@stratfor.com","allstratfor@stratfor.com",""
5045003,"Humint - MOIS Assassination  - Cyprus  (more) 
","   Have heard the MOIS whacked the diplomat in Cyprus in retaliation for the
   extraction of the Iranian spook from Turkey.  Fact or fiction? 
    
   xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    
   I am told it was a suicide.  Spouse problems, etc but stabbing yourself in
   the neck is more manly than swallowing your gun.   
    
    Having been trained by you, I trust nothing as do you
","2007-07-13 15:55:54",1,"2012-03-14 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5045003_humint-mois-assassination-cyprus-more-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
5048191,"INSIGHT - CHINA/AUSTRALIA/NAMIBIA - Rio - CN65
","   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator.  Source is 
   well-connected politically, militarily and economically.  He has become a
   private businessman helping foreign companies with M&As
   PUBLICATION: Yes but with no attribution
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2 - speculation, but he knows about the mine and the
   meetings
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   In response to my question on whether Australian intel was involved in the
   Namibian corruption crackdown on Chinese companies:
   There could be one indicator about possible intelligence activity by
   someone goading Namibia into action, and that is the silence on Stern Hu
   by the Leader of the Opposition over the last week.  Has he perhaps had an
   intelligence briefing? But then Namibia would have to be offered something
   valuable in return for their cooperation, which the offeror would be
   capable of delivering.  What could that be and who could deliver it? Maybe
   the US, but why would the US want to go out on a limb for Stern Hu, unless
   it suits them to clip China's wings in the region anyway?
   One possibility - a better one - could be that it is neither China nor the
   US that is behind this.  Maybe this is all Rio's doing.  Rio has a 69%
   interest in the Ro:ssing Uranium mine in Namibia.  The Namibian President
   recently visited this mine on the 20th July.  (See the attached press
   release.)  The press release states, in part:

     The President of the Republic of Namibia, His Excellency
     Hifikepunye Pohamba and the First Lady Penehupifo Pohamba, visited the
     mine on Saturday morning to familiarise himself with the operations of
     the mine given its significance in the Namibian economy. His visit was a
     response to the company's invitation for him to get first hand
     experience of the company's world class operations. 

   The company also announced plans to increase production of the mine on the
   9th July.  Ro:ssing currently produces 8% world's primary uranium oxide.
    Rio is also a substantial donor to Namibia through various charitable
   foundations it runs.  I certainly think the president's visit to the mine
   is no coincidence.
   My suspicion is that Rio is doing this all on their own.  Could it be the
   people implicated in corruption were politically opposed to the President?
    That would make it a perfect deal for Rio.  Roll up Hu Jintao's son, help
   out the President politically, and put pressure on China, as well as
   leverage their donations, and the role of the Ro:ssing mine to Namibia's
   economy. 
","2009-07-25 05:15:57",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5048191_insight-china-australia-namibia-rio-cn65-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
5053201,"[alpha] INSIGHT - SYRIA - Army purges
","   PUBLICATION: sitrep
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor military source in the region
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:
   Lebanese military source
   Reliability : B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   I learned from Syrian military colleagues that about 3,000 Syrian troops
   were executed since mid-March for refusing to open fire on protesters. A
   similar number of troops have been arrested for the same reason. He says
   many army defectors have fled to Turkey, Lebanon and al-Anbar in Iraq. The
   likelihood of a military coup has become virtually impossible because the
   Alawites and their Druze and Christian allies have completely eliminated
   Sunnis from ranking positions. All army units have been placed under firm
   control by pro-regime military commanders. The chief of staff of the
   Syrian army Daoud Naf'a, who is Christian, has no control over the army.
   Naf'a is believed to have entered in a dialogue with U.S. officials and
   has, thus, become suspect.
","2011-07-18 21:45:08",1,"2012-03-15 20:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5053201_-alpha-insight-syria-army-purges-.html","clint.richards@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5055578,"[alpha] INSIGHT - PNG - Somare - CN65
","   SOURCE: via CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1/2
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   The contact is very close to the Somare family.  He said the family itself
   doesn't know who will be the next PM, and that everything in this regard
   is in a state of flux.  The problem in all of these things is that there
   is no party cohesion in any of the parties.  I look at US parties, and I
   see the Whip as being very weak compared to Australian politics, but in
   PNG the Whip is simply non-existent.  Not only do you have a proliferation
   of small parties in PNG, but people are free to move from one party to
   another, and frequently do so.  
   The difficulty Somare's family will have in attempting to dictate the next
   PM is that they come from the East Sepik, so they don't really have a
   naturally large regional voting block.  They are also sorting out amongst
   themselves if any other members of the family are going to enter politics.
    The strongest block lies in the Highlands, but Ben Sabumei can't work out
   what he wants to do in terms of swinging votes.
   The one thing we did agree was that corruption will win the day for the
   foreseeable future.  This means that maybe nobody in the Parliament will
   know who the winner will be until after the vote!
   I know this doesn't advance things much in terms of an answer, but it does
   give you a better understanding of the situation.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-07-01 23:00:09",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5055578_-alpha-insight-png-somare-cn65-.html","reginald.thompson@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5060451,"Highly Confidential - Threat to CONUS - DO NOT FORWARD
","   DO NOT FORWARD
    
    
   This week, FBI Hqs stood up a compartmented task force to hunt down an
   Afghani tribal al-Qaeda operative (NFI) who has entered the United States
   to coordinate an attack inside the United States before the end of the
   summer.    It is believed, but not known, the terrorist is responsible for
   activating 3-5 other \"sleepers\" for the terrorist operation.   FBI opines
   an attack would take place in Washington, DC and/or New York City.   
   No/no notifications will be made to the public, for fear of accusations
   that the matter is being \"hyped\" for political reasons. 
","2007-08-04 00:19:48",1,"2012-07-31 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5060451_highly-confidential-threat-to-conus-do-not-forward-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
5060472,"[alpha] INSIGHT - PNG - Feedback on analysis - CN65
","   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

   Please see my comments in orange below.
   The real challenge for PNG is that it is too corrupt to develop
   efficiently. The new government won't make this any worse, but won't make
   it any better either.  
   What will happen is some stability, and an end to governmental paralysis.
    Most of the last eight months in public life there have been spent
   preserving the government, not moving the country forward.
   We see this as a good move.  How good a move will only be known once the
   cabinet is unveiled, but we hope for a good Treasurer.  Many of the other
   posts will be filled by people who are, quite frankly, under-qualified for
   the offices they hold.
   The other issue is that the standard of the political class is clearly
   lower than it was fifteen years ago.  The old guys got corrupt and lazy,
   and outdated.  The newer guys have been obsessed with personal wealth, and
   lack the respect for the offices they hold, which the previous generation
   had.  This, at least, was the view presented to me privately on Wednesday
   evening, by one of most senior diplomats.

   On 04/08/2011 12:23, wrote:

     here is what i have so far. the PROCESS by which they ousted Abal is a
     little confusing to me, so i wanted to run this by yall to make sure it
     is correct and accurate.

      

     The Papua New Guinean parliament on Aug. 2?? yes held a no-confidence
     vote against the government of acting Prime Minister Sam Abal, who has
     held the post since his predecessor, Michael Somare, resigned in
     December 2010.  Somare has not resigned, per se, but merely stood aside.
      He had already been mired in a controversy requiring him to meet a
     Leadership Tribunal for failing to make statutory financial returns.
     Abal is replaced by Peter O'Neill, who previously headed the Works
     Ministry and the Treasury.he was elected by a vote of 70 to 24.  I
     understood the vote was 77 to 31, with the Speaker not casting a vote.
      To do this they first had to have a similar vote to suspend standing
     orders to allow the no-confidnce vote to happen.

      

     Somare ruled the country for the better part of 35 years, and (amid
     latest corruption charge and following the reportedly poor health
     condition) he installed Abal, a long term ally to Somare  to ensure his
     continued influence after he formally resigned (I think he always
     prepares for coming back to power, and appointment of Abal would help
     his return). But as Abal leaves office, so does any residual power
     Somare may have maintained. O'Neill  may represents a stark contrast to
     the Somare regime, seen by many as corrupt, and because of his
     Australian and Papua New Guinean heritage, he could take a more
     pro-Australia stance than that of his predecessors (let's focus more
     from OZ's side, something like: OZ will see the opportunity to work with
     the new administration, changing from Somare's administration which took
     a more anti-OZ stance)  Agree with that.  Aus will see O'Neill as more
     cooperative.  Incidentally, he is deeply personally indebted to my
     colleague, Ben. . Moreover, the two figures hail from different tribes
     (the word tribes here is not right; they are from different provinces,
     and different ethnic groups), the dynamics of which will play a
     significant role in domestic politics under the O'Neill administration.

      

     A New Prime Minister

      

     According to a STRATFOR source, a dispute between Abal and Foreign
     Minister Don Polye - I think this guy was ousted already, along with
     resource minister willian duma, and O'Neill was changed from treasurer
     to work minister during reshuffle in May-- both members of the reputedly
     fractious Engan tribe (try \"grouping\" instead, as Enga is a province) --
     rather than concerns of Somare's projecting power through a handpicked
     replacement precipitated the no-confidence vote. Unhappy with the
     dispute, the Papua New Guinean parliament voted to vacate the prime
     minister's post. (Somare has been receiving medical treatment in
     Singapore for the past few months and, according to the Papua New
     Guinean Constitution, the prime minister's position can be vacated if he
     is absent from parliament without leave for more than 90 days. The
     parliament was thus able to proceed with a no-confidence vote, even
     though Somare designated Abal as the acting prime minister.) Notably,
     the parliament was also unhappy with Abal's ousting O'Neill from his
     position as _______ some months earlier.the latest reshuffle took place
     in May, Don Polye and O'Neil were both ousted by Abal, which severed as
     a catalyst among parliament

      

      Parliament was able to vote for a new prime minister, and a number of
     lawmakers secured enough votes for O'Neill to win. According to the
     source, the lawmakers sought more than a simple majority; they wanted
     enough votes to give O'Neill a decisive victory so that the new
     government would be able to move forward with confidence. O'Neill is now
     in the process of forming a Cabinet, which could include former Prime
     Minister Mekere Morauta as treasurer, and the source said O'Neill is
     thought to be capable of bringing stability to his position until formal
     elections take place in 2012. worth to mention the business camp, which
     O'Neill belongs to (he used to be a successful businessman), served a
     big role into the reshuffle.  O'Neill has significant telecommunications
     interests, most particularly in mobile phones.  His father was an
     Australian kiap(local government administrator and magistrate), and his
     mother was from the Southern Highlands.  

      

     Abal's government has challenged -- unsuccessfully -- the legality of
     the move. Arthur Somare, the son of the former prime minister, has said
     he intends to file a new suit, and the Supreme Court will hear a
     separate case filed by Abal. STRATFOR sources say the court will uphold
     the legality of the vote, solidifying O'Neill in his new position.

     not sure what way we want to frame the following up pieces, here is my
     suggestion (feel free to ignore if you already have one)

   the latest upheaval follows internal power struggle for months without the
   country's strongman, and questions were raised over the future of Somare
   and any changes from his decade power.

   One of the priority for O'Neil is to maintain the country's stability.
   Peter O`Neill is a member of Pangia, Lailibu-Pangia. Somare's strong fist
   over the country have successfully helped unify the country, which have
   nearly thousand tribes and languages, so the domestic situation
   post-Somare period remains questionable - Jen, can we have any insight
   over how tribal issue play into current politics? is the current situation
   likely to be calmed down or far from ending?  It will never end.  The
   other thing is that political parties in PNG are merely groupings of
   convenience.  Many MPs change their political party immediately after
   being elected because they get bought by a rival party.

   Also, O'Neil promised to fight against corruption. though he is corrupted
   (from insight), and he has significant business investments in mobile
   phones, among other things, so it is unlikely that his stepping into power
   could represent big change the country's investment environment O'Neill is
   a strong proponent of the PNG LNG project, and other LNG projects, which
   eh sees as vital for the cash to build the country.  PNG LNG is largely
   American and Australian owned, with Exxon Mobil, Santos and Oil Search
   holding the majority of the shares..

   Also, Somare's last term represents significant shift of anti-OZ, peaked
   Moti Affairs, This period (2003-2007) has seen a steadily growing
   influence of China in Pacific nations, taking full advantage of PNG-OZ
   ramification. - our source indicated that O'Neill won't be anymore
   pro-western than anyone else up there, but I guess OZ may see if there
   would be opportunity to shift a strained relation under Somare - see from
   Gillard's remark on the new administration. so we are still wondering if
   OZ wants any change with new government

   Just attaching a bit research did about two years ago regarding China-PNG
   issue (not sure if it will be helpful)

   Michael Somare, 74 years old, is the dominant politicians in PNG since it
   was independent from Australia in 1975, and so far served as PM for four
   terms (reelected in 1982, 2002 and 2007). The PNG election will be held in
   2012, and Somare was talking about retiring for sometimes, but instead
   setting his son Arthur, the minister for state enterprises and acting
   treasurer, as his successor.

    

   Deputy Prime Minister Dr Puka Temu and two senior ministers - Culture
   Minister Charles Abel and Forest Minister Belden Namah, defected to the
   opposition on July 19 and prepared a no-confidence motion to the
   parliament at 14:00 July 20. The move follows a court ruling last week
   that found several parts of PNG's political integrity law were
   unconstitutional - freedom of speech, freedom of movement. As a result
   from the ruling, MPs are free from party restrictions to move around and
   vote in a no-confidence motion against the sitting prime minister.  This
   is dated.

    

   PNG Political Integrity Laws:

   The political integrity laws of Papua New Guinea came into affect for the
   2002 election and the aim was to bring about political stability in a
   country where governments had chopped and changed pretty regularly through
   no confidence votes. So these laws bound members of parliament through
   their parties and if their parties had supported the government to form a
   governing coalition, they were pretty much bound to vote along government
   line.

    

   PNG-China:

   Somare has long been seen as close to Malaysian logging interests and
   accommodating to Chinese entrepreneurs setting up entertainment venues.
   However, in June this year, He banned reporting and discussion of
   environment law charges that could allow a Chinese miner to pump waste out
   to sea.

    

   PNG Nickel Mine Project:

   Chinese financed Ramu nickel mine project in PNG's Madang Province was
   approved by PNG government ten years ago, and the company claims it has
   already spent more than a billion dollars into the project. However, the
   project was opposed by landowners and environmental groups. Last week,
   Supreme Court failed to lift the injunction stopping construction of a
   system to dispose of mining waste in Madang's Basamuk Bay. Somare,
   representing the government's stance, met with local landowners, but
   failed to reach an agreement on the issue.

    
    

   PNG-Australia:

   Somare outraged Australia in 2006, when he ignored an extradition request
   for Solomon Islands attorney general Julian Moti to face child sex
   charges. Moti was then flown to Solomon Islands on a PNG Defense Force
   flight and Australia then cancelled ministerial level talks in Dec. 2006
   and banned senior PNG ministers from entering Australia.

    

   Following Australia's intervention in Solomon in 2003, Australia laid out
   plans for an Enhanced Cooperation Package (ECP) for PNG to send more than
   200 Australian police as well as senior bureaucrats to PNG, but the idea
   was strongly opposed by Somare.

    

   It looks like Australia has been trying to overthrow Somare for several
   years, at least back to 2007 election in Howard's administration

    
    

   Earlier July, Australia seeks PNG support on regional asylum seeker
   processing center, following objection from East Timor, to have PNG's
   Manus Island as possible site for the center. As an effort to offer PNG in
   return for the support, Australia is talking with PNG on a huge gas
   project that worth 16 billion and due to begin production in 2014.
   Astralia sent Trade Minister Stephen Smith in talk with PNG Public
   Enterprises Minister Arthur Somare - Sr. Somare's son - on July 1, to
   discuss providing technical and advisory support as PNG establishes
   sovereign wealth funds. Australia also pledged 450 million aids to PNG.
   But PNG government on July 10 rejected proposal.  This will be problematic
   under O'Neill as one of his close advisors is a rather dodgy Norwegian(!),
   and former Telstra sales rep, who wants this for himself.

    
    
    

   MSG - Fiji Issue:

    
    

   China - OZ - South Pacific:

   Relations between PNG and Australia were seriously strained during Howard
   administration, following a series of diplomatic incidents, peaked with
   Moti Affairs. This period (2003-2007) has seen a steadily growing
   influence of China in PNG, as well as other South Pacific nations, taking
   full advantage of PNG-OZ ramification.

    

   China's interest in PNG lies in three areas: 1. mineral resources, timber
   and fishing, in particular, China and PNG signed investment deal in Ramu
   nickel project that worth 651 million dollars; 2. Geopolitical importance
   of creating a breakpoint from U.S-Japan-Australia naval containment; 3.

    

   In fact, as Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade said -
   which is in consistent with my friend, China's aid to PNG \"tend to focus
   on prestige projects in a `chequebook diplomacy' competition, applying
   less rigorous standards of transparency, accountability and governance
   than other donors\". My friend says, in those Pacific countries - same as
   African countries, standards don't apply when it comes to investment.
   There was pre-study, and post-investigation, despite many items don't meet
   standard, the report still recommend a pass due to \"political
   considerations\". China's investment during 2005-2007 are primarily
   concentrated in infrastructure projects. According to a report The Dragon
   Looks South,  China's aid to PNG increased from 6.1 million dollars in
   2005, to 14.1 million in 2006, slightly decreased to 10.7 million in 2007.

    
    

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-08-05 05:05:33",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5060472_-alpha-insight-png-feedback-on-analysis-cn65-.html","clint.richards@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5070598,"[alpha] RESENDING - MUST READ Fwd: source evaluations - must read
","   It has come to my attention that if something is sent at night it is not
   seen as valuable as if it were sent during 8a-5p so I'm resending this. 
   This needs to change.  We operate 24/7.  This is mandatory for everyone to
   read and process.

   I also resent the insight lists this morning with the correct
   spreadsheet.  That is also mandatory reading.  If you need me to resend
   that as well, let me know.

   If there are any questions, please ask.  I will send an email later today
   or tomorrow on the intel meeting next week as mentioned in another email
   also sent last night.

   Jen

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: [alpha] source evaluations - must read                     
       Date: Tue, 09 Aug 2011 21:51:43 -0500                            
       From: Jennifer Richmond <richmond@stratfor.com>                  
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>                            
         To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>, watchofficer@stratfor.com 

   This is the first in several emails on our sourcing and insight
   collections.  To begin with, we will be meeting with everyone who has
   sources to evaluate them on the criteria and scoring below.  I will be in
   touch with everyone who has a source list within the next few weeks.  If
   you have sources but no source list, then you need to create one.  I will
   give details on this in a separate email. 

   All of those who need to update or create their list need to do so by
   Monday and send them to both myself and Anya.  If you need a source code
   number range, email me and I will get this set up for you so you can start
   the process.  For analysts with compiled lists with uncoded sources,
   please code these ASAP unless they are genuinely a one-off and then give
   an explanation.

   In the meantime, it would be best if everyone with sources start to
   evaluate each source by looking at least the past five insights and start
   to score them based on the criteria and scoring below so you are not
   scrambling when we are ready to set up an evaluation with you.  Also, from
   here on out, start to think about sources with these criteria and scoring
   in mind.  This will be the first of many periodic insight evaluations so
   its best for everyone to get acquainted with this method.

   For Watch Officers, please also start to think along these lines when you
   are reading insight.  In the future we will also look to you as objective
   source evaluators.  Also, please start to read the insight carefully and
   comment on it the same as you would a piece from OS.  As Reva said in our
   meeting today, we are starting to refocus on intel and insight.  As Watch
   Officers, you are well placed to comment on any anomalies presented in
   insights and compare it with what is being said in the media.

   If there are any questions or concerns, please ask.

   Jen

                               Sourcing Criteria

   The following are the proposed criteria for analyzing both sources and
   insight.

    

   1.     Source Timeliness

   2.     Source Accessibility/Position

   3.     Source Availability

   4.     Insight Credibility

   5.     Insight Uniqueness

    

    

   Source Timeliness:  This is the average grade on how long this particular
   source turns around tasks and replies to inquiries.  It may change but is
   more of a static indicator.

    

   Source Accessibility: Accessibility weighs the source's position to have
   certain knowledge in a particular field.  So, for example, if we are
   looking for energy insight and the source is an official in an energy
   agency, his or her Accessibility would be ranked higher than if s/he was a
   banker giving insight on energy.  While we would welcome a banker giving
   his/her insight, a good source may not have a high accessibility ranking
   if they aren't in a position to offer reliable insight on a certain topic.
   The source's access to decision makers, specific training or education in
   the desired topic area, specific knowledge of events/situations/incidents
   can also be considered.

    

   Source Availability:  How often can we go to this source?  Are they
   someone we can tap daily, weekly, monthly, yearly?

    

   Insight Credibility:  This is our assessment of the veracity of the
   insight offered.  Here we need to consider whether or not this is
   disinformation, speculation, correct data or knowledgeable interpretation.
   Any bias that the source is displaying or any specific viewpoints or
   personal background the source is using in the assessment provided should
   also be considered.

    

   Insight Uniqueness:  Is this insight something that could be found in OS? 
   If it is but the analysis of the information is unique, it would still
   have a high uniqueness ranking.  Or, if it is concrete data, but is
   something that is only offered to industry insiders, i.e. stats that
   aren't published but that aren't secret, it would still have a high
   uniqueness score.

    

    

                                    Scoring

   All of the above factors will be scored on an A-F scale, with A being
   exemplary and F being useless. 

    

   Source Timeliness:

   A = turnaround within 24 hours

   B = turnaround within 48 hours

   C = turnaround within a week

   D = turnaround within a month

   F = lucky to receive a reply at all

    

   Source Accessibility:

   A = Someone with intimate knowledge of the particular insight

   B = Someone within the industry but whose knowledge of the topic is not
   exact (e.g. if we were asking someone in the oil industry about natural
   gas)

   C = Someone working close to the industry who doesn't have intimate
   knowledge of a particular topic but can speak to it intelligently (e.g. a
   financial consultant asked to gauge the movement of the stock market)

   D = Someone who may know a country but doesn't have any concrete insight
   into a particular topic but can offer rumors and discussions heard on the
   topic

   F = Someone who has no knowledge of a particular industry at all

    

   Source Availability:

   A = Available pretty much whenever

   B = Can tap around once a week

   C = Can tap about once a month

   D = Can tap only several times a year

   F = Very limited availability

    

   Insight Credibility:

   A = We can take this information to the bank

   B = Good insight but maybe not entirely precise

   C = Insight is only partially true

   D = There may be some interest in the insight, but it is mostly false or
   just pure speculation.

   F = Likely to be disinformation

    

   Insight Uniqueness:

   A = Can't be found anywhere else

   B = Can only be found in limited circles

   C = Insight can be found in OS, but the source has an interesting
   take/analysis

   D = Insight can be found in OS, but still may not be common knowledge

   F = Insight is accessible in numerous locations

    

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-08-10 21:05:56",1,"2012-02-27 02:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5070598_-alpha-resending-must-read-fwd-source-evaluations-must-read-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5091635,"Re: A thought on open source practice
","   Well put.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Brian Genchur
   Date: Mon, 30 Mar 2009 22:44:22 -0500
   To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: A thought on open source practice

   I'd add another example to George's point.  The reason media come to us
   for information and analysis is because we are, by definition, not open
   source.  If we named all of our sources the same way the NYT does, then
   they would likely go to the 'primary source' of the information (where we
   collected it) rather than us.  The NYT wouldn't analyze it as well, but
   that's another point. 

   STRATFOR analysts BECOME sources for news outlets by using intelligence
   and analytical methods as opposed to purely news gathering techniques. 
   Journalists collect information and write down what others say.  You guys
   use your brains to analyze the information after collection, and then you
   say what that all means in context - something I think is far more
   valuable and interesting.  You then use history, analysis, whatever other
   magic you guys do...  to forecast.  By doing so, you add so much value to
   the information (open source or otherwise) that you become the NOT open
   source that you are - or more precisely - that STRATFOR is not.

   A journalist is taught to be a \"public watchdog\".  The 4th Estate.  Expose
   the information and let the public decide what it means (though with
   commentators, entertainers and columnists these days, the line is
   blurring).  I'm pretty sure that \"public watchdog\" wouldn't be the first
   way you'd describe yourself when it comes to what you do.  Though, I may
   be wrong.  A \"public watchdog\"'s role is to MAKE information open source.

   George Friedman wrote:

 And that is the weakness of the government vision and why I never use the term open source in relation to us.  When you talk to me1 or jen talks to china or the ct team spins up a source it is a degree of secret material. It is stone secret. The idea that clandestine collection is a government specialty has never worked with shell oil.  The government confuses the dissemination of information with the collection of information.  We are not at all like the nyt because their reporters always identify themselves as such. We may or may not as it suits us. This is the fundamental difference between journalism and intelligence. The source may never know he was a source, which is the definition of clandestine.   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T  -----Original Message----- From: Reva Bhalla <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>  Date: Mon, 30 Mar 2009 21:52:42 To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>; Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com> Subject: Re: A thought on open source practice   that's true, the way the govt defines open sources is:  Any and all information that can be derived from overt collection: all types of media, government reports, scientific research, Internet, commercial vendors of info, etc. The main qualifies to open source information are that it does not require any type of clandestine collection techniques to obtain it.  for the USG, it doesn't require clandestine collection to obtain what Strat writes. But STrat product does require some level of secret sourcing. So by this definition, Stratfor isn't any definition than a NYT reporter with a source.  On Mar 30, 2009, at 9:47 PM, George Friedman wrote:   

 I agree except that I don't regard us as open source. We publish much of what we know but our souring includes what will be a growing amount of non open source material. So I'm rejecting the government definition of open source. We publush our findings but our sources are far from open. Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T  -----Original Message----- From: Reva Bhalla <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>  Date: Mon, 30 Mar 2009 21:41:34 To: <friedman@att.blackberry.net>; Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com> Subject: Re: A thought on open source practice   agree, and those all good points, but the industry is also slowly transforming to greater appreciate open source intelligence, like Stratfor. With technological advancements, information is everywhere. Some of it highly misleading written on blogs by the crazy Kazakhs and Ukrainians who write to us. Others, like Strat and other valuable databases of information, are accessed regularly by top policymakers, creating a crisis for many within the covert source realm. in reality, both can't survive without each other. there is a strong case for both open source and covert sources, but there will always be that so- called elitism in the classified world.  regardless, as an open source institution, there is a good niche for us in this market and we should all take pride in the different ways we build up our reputation, whether through the open source material we collect and disseminate, through the intel we collect through our own sources, through the analysis we piece together, through the PR efforts to get our name out there, etc.     On Mar 30, 2009, at 9:32 PM, George Friedman wrote:     

 In order for this to be understood we must distinguish the proper use of open source from the governments use.  For usg, open source is anything not classified. The most secret source used by stratfor is still open source in their mind.  Open source should be defined as published and publicly accessible sources. Covert sources are unpublished sources.  What needs to be added to this mix is common gossip.  This is a form of intelligence that sometimes contains value but too frequently is simply idle chatter.  Too much of what is called intelligence is idle chatter by people who don't really know anything.  This is the trap.  So nyes point on published material is valid. Most of what is true is widely known and published. But his definition of covert intelligence is insufficient. The assumption that classified information is superior to covert intelligence gathered by others is the conceit of the intelligence community and leads them into constant error.   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T  -----Original Message----- From: Reva Bhalla <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>  Date: Mon, 30 Mar 2009 21:17:18 To: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com> Subject: A thought on open source practice   Joseph Nye, during his tenure at the NIC, said:  \"open source intelligence is the outer pieces of the jigsaw puzzle, without which one can neither begin nor complete the puzzle\"  if you think about our daily work, we rely heavily on open source to fill out the frame of our analysis, and fill in the real picture with critical pieces of intel. After much time and labor, we can finally complete the picture, and that should be the ultimate satisfaction of the analyst and the collector.  just a thought..      

   

 -- {\rtf1\ansi\ansicpg1252\cocoartf949\cocoasubrtf430 {\fonttbl\f0\fswiss\fcharset0 Helvetica;} {\colortbl;\red255\green255\blue255;} \margl1440\margr1440\vieww9000\viewh8400\viewkind0 \pard\tx720\tx1440\tx2160\tx2880\tx3600\tx4320\tx5040\tx5760\tx6480\tx7200\tx7920\tx8640\ql\qnatural\pardirnatural  \f0\fs24 \cf0 Brian Genchur\ Public Relations Manager\ STRATFOR\pr@stratfor.com\ 512 744 4309}
","2009-03-31 05:50:37",1,"2012-02-27 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5091635_re-a-thought-on-open-source-practice-.html","friedman@att.blackberry.net","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
5095199,"[alpha] MORE Re:  MORE Re:  INSIGHT - PNG - New PM - via CN65
","   A little more background on this guy:

   Quite corrupt.  I know him.  He is manipulated by a rather bad egg from
   Norway, who couldn't run a used car lot, but is now O'Neil's economic
   advisor.
   O'Neil is not any more pro-Western than anyone else up there.  As long as
   he makes money for himself (he has significant business investments in
   mobile phones, among other things), he couldn't really care less.
   One thing that can't be disputed, though, i that O'Neil represents a
   generational change compared to previous PMs.

   On 8/2/11 7:03 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

     In response to the numbers give in the original insight:

     Oh, now I realise.  These are the numbers in the Chamber: 77 for the
     government, 31 for the Opposition, and the Speaker.

     On 8/2/11 6:42 AM, Benjamin Preisler wrote:

       *I think they probably meant to type 07/31 but will double check with
       source.

       SOURCE: via CN65
       ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
       natural resources
       SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
       PUBLICATION: Yes
       SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
       ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
       SPECIAL HANDLING: None
       SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

         Png has a new PM Peter O'Neil, opposition will form new gov 77/31
          

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 +216 22 73 23 19

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com


 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 China Director
 Director of International Projects
 (512) 422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-08-02 17:01:41",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5095199_-alpha-more-re-more-re-insight-png-new-pm-via-cn65-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5101537,"Re: INSIGHT - US/UK/French view on Libya operation
","   I don't think anyone really thinks any European country has proven
   military capability... Also, it is not just military capability. It is
   also about the ability to lead on foreign policy.

   And good questions on where this goes from here.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Mark Schroeder\" <mark.schroeder@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
   Cc: secure@stratfor.com
   Sent: Friday, March 18, 2011 10:05:39 PM
   Subject: Re: INSIGHT - US/UK/French view on Libya operation

   in Europe itself, doesn't France already have a fairly proven military
   capability? Among the Europeans, who doesn't think they're still a capable
   power? They have their CDG, their advanced fighter jets, their capable
   army, their foreign legion -- who can match them among the Europeans?

   Germany doesn't need them to demonstrate an ability to intervene in Libya.
   Might that just compel the Germans to think that they will need to
   demonstrate they can go intervene somewhere? If France goes and ups the
   stakes, where does this get France in the next few years, and then what
   does Germany then start to calculate?

   On 3/18/11 9:55 PM, Marko Papic wrote:

     This part is awesome: The French are more complicated.  They dont' need
     the energy. The French had a multi-billion dollar contract signed with
     Ghadafi for 40 Rafale jets, that was going to be the saving grace for
     the French defense industry. Then the French (so he claims) hear about
     AQIM threats backed by Ghadafi on French targets, and they got pissed.
     Sarkozy painted himself in a corner. More than that, though, (and this
     is what the british and the french guy agreed on,) was that this was
     France really, really wanting to show that it can DO this. To prove its
     relevance.
     This is something that I have said as well in a few analysis we wrote on
     this issue in the past few weeks -- and have had an itch for the past
     two years that the French were really really looking for an opportunity
     to do this (remember declaring war on AQIM and penning that military
     agreement with the U.K.). It is part of trying to balance a rising
     Germany... proving that you still matter in military matters, that when
     it comes to \"war\", you lead Europe. This is not just about ego. If
     Europe is to become a \"player\" it can't all be just widgets and euros,
     someone has to have guns. So France has wanted, for the past couple of
     years, to make that statement. And I don't think this is about Sarko's
     ego either... France simply needs to assert that the leadership duo of
     Europe is a duo and it's not just Germany alone.

     Not sure this accomplishes it... but I do think this has informed their
     thinking on everything from selling advanced naval tech to Russia to
     penning that military agreement with the U.K.

     First, France wants to lead the European response on the crisis in
     Libya. As Berlin wrestles economic and political control of the eurozone
     and the European Union from Paris a** to which Sarkozy has thus far
     acquiesced for lack of any real alternative a** France wants to reassert
     its leadership of Europe on foreign policy.
     http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110311-european-disunity-libya

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
     To: secure@stratfor.com
     Sent: Friday, March 18, 2011 6:51:05 PM
     Subject: INSIGHT - US/UK/French view on Libya operation

     from a closed door mtg with a few US, one UK and one French air force
     colonels
     USAF could not be more thrilled with the resolution. They are
     practically jumping out of their seats to do this operation --- it's a
     dream op, as they call it - flat terrain, close to the coast, easy
     targets. no prob. 
     What's funny is they're only looking at the 'op' as preventing Ghadafi
     from retaking Benghazi. These guys aren't the decision-makers,
     obviously, but the US guys are simply not looking at the 'what's next'
     question. They brush it off as, we'll get the rebel forces into a mean
     fighting force, they'll handle the rest.  We took a group of rag tag
     Afghans who were repressed into nothing and turned them into fighters,
     why can't we do it with Libyans. (uhh...)  They were amazed at my
     skepticism.
     The Egyptians are on the ground, arming and training the rebels. 
     From their perspective this whole operation is a UK-French-driven
     campaign. The US was in many ways pushed into it. The resolution was
     almost completely drafted by the Brits.
     The UK guy says UK is driven by energy interests in this campaign. BP
     post-oil spill is suffering in US< other options are to expand in
     Siberia (problems with Russia), Vietnam and .. libya.  They see a
     Ghadafi ouster as the best way to meet their energy interests.
     The French are more complicated.  They dont' need the energy. The French
     had a multi-billion dollar contract signed with Ghadafi for 40 Rafale
     jets, that was going to be the saving grace for the French defense
     industry. Then the French (so he claims) hear about AQIM threats backed
     by Ghadafi on French targets, and they got pissed. Sarkozy painted
     himself in a corner. More than that, though, (and this is what the
     british and the french guy agreed on,) was that this was France really,
     really wanting to show that it can DO this. To prove its relevance.
     The Germans are opposed, but they all commented on how Germany
     abstained. Germany has the stigma of being too close to Russia these
     days and they think Merkel is trying to balance a bit more with the US
     and plus wanted to look good in a leadership position in the UNSC
     (acting responsibly, etc. instead of flat out voting against.)
     The French guy was pissed b/c, as they claim, the French and the Brits
     and the US air force all ready to go. They can start bombing within
     hours. But, they started bitching about the petty bureaucracy.  The US
     Navy now wants to make sure it gets involved and are saying Tuesday to
     get into position, maybe Wed start the operation
     ** Note - George believes this is the US deliberately buying time and
     tryign to bluff ghadafi into a negotiation. They don't want this war.
     Certainly Gates doesn't.
     This has to be a US=-led operation. No question.  All their excrcises
     and the way NATO is configured only allows for a US-led operation. They
     have yet to sort out all the ohter command and control issues. It sounds
     like it'll be a giant mess.
     There's also some fighting going on over what anti-air defense systems
     to employ since the US has some new fancy stuff and they want to 'give
     it away' or reveal their capabilities in something like this.  This is
     all central European air defenses anyway. They seem extremely confident
     in the intel they have on EADs.  Not so much about who's who in the
     opposiiton (but let the agency, SF guys, allies like Egypt worry about
     that.)
     So, all in all, a lot of stereotypes confirmed. The Air Force is trying
     to jump the gun, saying piece of cake, we got this, who cares about what
     happens next.  I'm sure the army is thinking you're out of your mind.
     we're not getting ourselves into this.  US appears to be buying time and
     NATO unity on this operation is not assured. NATO may deploy a few jets
     - keeping close to the mandate of 'protecting civilians' - if Ghadafi
     doesn't shoot, NATO won't shoot (french guy seemed to be pretty clear
     that the French wouldn't act if Q held to the ceasefire.)
     So... maybe we'll have a weekend? I probably just jinxed us.

     --
     Marko Papic

     STRATFOR Analyst
     C: + 1-512-905-3091
     marko.papic@stratfor.com

   --
   Marko Papic

   STRATFOR Analyst
   C: + 1-512-905-3091
   marko.papic@stratfor.com
","2011-03-19 04:15:13",1,"2012-03-06 07:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5101537_re-insight-us-uk-french-view-on-libya-operation-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","mark.schroeder@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
5107155,"[alpha] INSIGHT - AUSTRALIA - Stability of the OZ government - CN65
","   SOURCE: CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen
   I know you don't generally cover domestic politics (a rule more honoured
   int he breach than in the observance sometimes) but this should interest
   your guys:
   http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/alp-rallies-to-salvage-asylum-deal-tony-crook-to-be-focus-of-attention/story-fn59niix-1226162536208
   Basically, the government is on the verge of collapse.  It is a minority
   government to begin with, but it has been run incredibly badly.
   We are now at the point where there is little that can be believed in
   terms of the government's ability to deliver, even on Budget Bills.  One
   of the questions Obama needs to answer is whether any international
   agreements with Australia can be assured of being honoured.
","2011-10-10 04:05:14",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5107155_-alpha-insight-australia-stability-of-the-oz-government-cn65.html","clint.richards@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5114800,"Re: Fwd: [Africa] Fw: [OS] SOUTH AFRICA/CT- Wikileaks exposes SA
 spy boss
","   Ok I re-read the reference to Oct. 2009 and I may have read it wrong. It
   could be read instead of cables from Oct., Shaik was appointed SASS head
   then.

   On 1/25/11 2:17 PM, Anya Alfano wrote:

     Hey Mark,
     No, I don't see anything from October 2009.  I was looking back at the
     article you posted below and I think the three cables I sent contain all
     of the quotes listed, but so far, I don't see any cables released that
     month.
     Anya 

     On 1/25/11 3:10 PM, Mark Schroeder wrote:

       Thanks, Anya.

       Could you check again for any cable from Oct. 2009 in particular?

       Thanks again.

       On 1/25/11 2:05 PM, Anya Alfano wrote:

         Found it -- more about Zuma than Shaik, though.

         Confidential cable from the US Embassy Pretoria to the Secretary of
         State Washington DC (and others), June 4 2009:

         SUBJECT: ZUMA'S CABINET IS BRILLIANT POLITICALLY, BUT WILL IT BE
         EFFECTIVE?

         PRETORIA

         Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR RAYMOND L. BROWN FOR REASONS 1.4
         (B) AND (D).

         Summary

         1. Newly elected President Jacob Zuma's Cabinet is settling in
         following the swearing in ceremony on May 11.

         Most political analysts and pundits have praised Zuma's selections
         -- lauding some for their managerial skills, some for their
         willingness to bring new ideas to government, and some for their
         political power within the ruling tripartite alliance. Although the
         Cabinet choices reflect a wide range of experiences and political
         alignments, it remains to be seen whether some new ministerial teams
         -- notably in education and home affairs -- will be effective in
         addressing the country's biggest societal issues. End Summary.

         ANC, Zuma Makes Their Moves

         2. President Zuma announced his Cabinet selections last month
         following lengthy consultations with the African National Congress
         (ANC). Zuma's discussions with the ANC over Cabinet composition and
         size suggest that the new President is being true to his word that
         he will rely on as many players as possible when making decisions.
         (Note: Some would argue that he was too true to his word, as Zuma
         arrived at the press conference to announce the Cabinet thirty
         minutes late.

         His delay was reportedly because of last minute infighting within
         the ANC and the tripartite alliance -- composed of the ANC, the
         South African Communist Party (SACP) and the trade union federation
         COSATU) -- over Cabinet choices. End Note.) The ANC and Zuma ensured
         that the Cabinet is balanced between those generally seen as
         populist and those generally described as pro-business. Moreover,
         the party and Zuma made sure to accommodate some officials often
         seen as close to former President Thabo Mbeki such as Charles
         Nqakula and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.

         However, this cabinet is very pro-Zuma, made up of some of his
         closest political supporters and members of the alliance. The
         message that Zuma reportedly sought to send is that there will be
         general continuance of macro-policy structures (albeit with some
         changes to the ministries' composition) with some changes to
         micro-policy formulation and implementation.

         Choices Draw Praise, But Questions Remain

         3. (SBU) Reactions to Zuma's Cabinet selections have been largely
         positive. Alec Russell, author of \"South Africa After Mandela,\"
         noted that investors would breathe a sigh of relief and \"say it
         looks like he intends to keep macro-economic policies on the same
         track.\" He stated, \"It says, 'I'm not a scary populist who's going
         to send policy sharply to the left.' It says, 'I listen to business
         and I'm aware of their concerns.'\" Political analyst William Gumede
         noted that \"he got it right on the economic cluster of ministries.\"
         He further said, \"It does say clearly that he wants to get the
         economy right. That's where his priorities are.\" University of
         Pretoria political scientist Roland Henwood noted that the Cabinet
         selections were generally outstanding. However, he related that even
         though Zuma's choices were brilliant politically, there are serious
         questions about how effective the ministers will be at questions
         about how effective the ministers will be at delivery. He quipped,
         \"(Basic Education Minister) Angie Motshekga and (Correctional
         Services Minister) Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula are disastrous at
         delivering quick results.

         Also, I have serious questions about whether (International
         Relations Minister) Maite Nkoana-Mashabane is up to the task of
         leading a professional foreign policy.\" There are questions about
         how effective Zuma's appointments would be in addressing social
         issues. Gumede noted that while the appointments are impressive in
         balancing party factions, they are less impressive in terms of
         improving delivery. He stated, \"People see the Home Affairs ministry
         as absolute incompetence (at home) and abroad as well (sic). It's
         just a lax department. Everything from passports to travel
         documents, everything needs to be fixed. One would have expected
         someone more inspiring (than Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma). We didn't get
         that.\" (Note: It is noteworthy that one of Minister Dlamini-Zuma's
         first statements about her new ministry was to clearly admit that it
         was riddled with corruption that allowed its travel, identity and
         other documents to be produced illegally. End Note.)

         Cabinet Picks Highlight Key Trends

         4. While some questions remain over whether the new Cabinet can
         deliver, Zuma's selections demonstrate a number of important trends
         worth watching during the next five years. Each of the trends below
         will have implications both for the 2011 municipal election and the
         2012 ruling party congress:

         -- The presidency will be larger, more powerful, and will have more
         formal advisers in the President's office than there were under
         Mbeki. This will be a key development as businessmen, diplomats, and
         statesmen seek to win access to work with the Zuma government. In
         addition to Collins Chabane and Trevor Manuel, Zuma will look to
         former Minister of Defense Nqakula on political matters, Mandisi
         Mpahlwa on economic affairs, Lindiwe Zulu on international affairs,
         Ayanda Dlodlo on affairs related to Parliament, and Bonisiwe Makhene
         on legal issues. Under the Mbeki and Motlanthe administrations,
         Nqakula served both as Minister of Safety and Security and Minister
         of Defense. Mpahlwa served as Minister of Trade and Industry and
         Deputy Minister of Finance in previous administrations. Zulu, a
         member of the ANC's National Executive Committee, served as South
         African Ambassador to Brazil until December 2008. Dlodlo is also a
         member of the ANC's National Executive Committee and is the
         Secretary General of the Military Affairs Association; she has close
         ties to Lindiwe Sisulu. Makhene is currently deputy chief state law
         adviser in the Department of Justice and Constitutional Development,
         but will be seconded to the Presidency later this month. According
         to informal Zuma adviser Mo Shaik, the informal advisers were
         selected as concessions to \"keep them quiet.\" The only person Shaik
         considers close to Zuma is Zulu on international affairs.

         -- Not only will there be more formal presidential advisers, there
         also will be more ministers. The ANC expanded the Cabinet from 28 to
         34 ministries. This will be an important trend to watch because it
         could create a bureaucracy larger than anything that South Africa
         has seen since 1994. Some political commentators, including Roland
         Henwood, claim that Zuma has \"Africanized the Cabinet.\" The argument
         goes that Zuma increased the size of the Cabinet to accommodate his
         allies, but in doing so has created what could be a potentially
         unwieldy policy process similar to what has happened in other
         African countries.

         -- The ANC wants to retain Limpopo Province's loyalty. This will be
         a key goal as the ruling party seeks to ward off opponents in the
         2011 election and as the ANC prepares for its next party congress.
         Several of the senior players in Zuma's government hail from
         Limpopo, which is a strategically important province that helped
         sway ANC members to Zuma at the December 2007 ruling party congress.
         Limpopo also promises to be a key battleground province during the
         2011 municipal elections. The Congress of the People has
         consistently said Limpopo is a province it can win and can
         consistently said Limpopo is a province it can win and can build the
         local structures necessary to govern at the municipal level. Cabinet
         players with connections to Limpopo include Chabane, Aaron
         Motsoaledi, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, Richard Baloyi, Joe Phaahla, and
         Rejoice Mabhudafhasi.

         -- Zuma, under the auspices of the ANC, wants some KwaZulu Natal
         allies kept close. This will be a key trend because there already
         are questions over some of Zuma's business deals in the past, many
         of which have dogged the President since the conviction of his
         former business associate Schabir Shaik. Zuma's Cabinet includes
         several leaders that he forged connections to during his time as a
         premier in KwaZulu Natal. The ministerial team includes Ebrahim
         Patel, Musa Nhlanhla Nene, Malusi Gigaba, Jeff Radebe, Nathi
         Mthethwa, Roy Padayachie, Siyabonga Cwele, Sbusiso Ndebele, and
         Noluthando Mayende-Sibiya.

         -- The ANC is unafraid, at least for now, of competing centers of
         power. This is perhaps the most important trend, but the one that
         may change the most over time. The party will have ministers with
         strong personalities in the Cabinet, such as Minister of Planning in
         the Presidency Manuel and Minister of Home Affairs Dlamini-Zuma,
         along with strong leaders from Luthuli House such as ANC Secretary
         General Gwede Mantashe and ANC Treasurer Matthews Phosa. Although
         the ANC seems satisfied with this arrangement, such a dynamic is
         likely to be key in setting the stage for succession battles ahead
         of the ANC's 2012 ruling party congress. If power in Luthuli House
         outweighs power in government (as many political analysts predict),
         Mantashe, Phosa, or Baleka Mbete may hold the inside track over
         whether Zuma stays on as party leader or whether a new leader
         emerges ahead of the next election. Both the Congress of South
         African Trade Unions (COSATU) and the South African Communist Party
         (SACP) also seem unafraid of competing centers of power, but perhaps
         less satisfied with the arrangement than the ANC. Some of the most
         visible leaders from the tripartite alliance (Jeremy Cronin, Blade
         Nzimande, and Rob Davies) will be serving in the Cabinet, but COSATU
         Secretary General Zwelenzima Vavi has opted to remain outside the
         government. Similarly, SACP plans to hold leadership discussions
         about whether having Nzimande in the government will remain viable
         for the communist party over the longer term.

         Opportunities for Engagement

         5. The new team offers the United States new opportunities for
         continuing and future engagement. New Health Minister Aaron
         Motsoaledi wants to continue work started by Barbara Hogan to
         address the country's ongoing battle against HIV/AIDS, according to
         most political analysts and leading South African commentators. The
         new ministry of Basic Education wants to improve the quality of
         South African primary education, and Zuma has said that he wants
         that body to establish a \"Head Start\" program similar to the one in
         place in the United States. Even though Motshekga is viewed as a
         weak choice for heading the ministry, deputy Enver Surty and Gauteng
         Minister in the Executive Committee Barbara Creecy are capable
         bureaucrats and have experience working with international partners
         to make progress on core policy goals. Also, the new Ministry of
         Police intends to address crime and, specifically, crime prevention
         ahead of the 2010 World Cup. Beyond these areas, there may be
         avenues for greater cooperation in public enterprises,
         transportation, and higher education.

         Comment

         6. Zuma and the ANC delivered a Cabinet that addresses the political
         balance of power between the party and the government. Political
         analysts say that Zuma's team has some solid managers who can bring
         new ideas to government while at the same time keep the tripartite
         alliance as close as it has been in years. Despite this optimism,
         however, there are serious questions about whether the new team can
         deliver better than the old one. In some areas, like Public
         Enterprises under Barbara Hogan and Water and Environmental Affairs
         under Patience Sonjica, there is reason for hope. In other areas,
         however, like Basic Education, Correctional Services, and Home
         Affairs, critics already are worried that QServices, and Home
         Affairs, critics already are worried that little will change.
         Perhaps the single greatest determinant for how well the Zuma
         government functions -- and what happens in 2011, 2012, and beyond
         -- will be whether the Cabinet and the ANC can work together without
         one impeding or superseding the other.

         LA LIME

         On 1/25/11 1:35 PM, Mark Schroeder wrote:

           Thanks, Anya -- though could you see if there are any cables from
           the Oct. 2009 period? The news story mentioned some from that time
           period also.

           Thanks.

           On 1/25/11 12:25 PM, Anya Alfano wrote:

             Actually, one more --

             Confidential cable from the US Embassy Pretoria to the Secretary
             of State, Washington DC (and others), September 10 2008:

             SUBJECT: ZUMA ADVISOR THREATENS TO EXPOSE POLITICAL SKELETONS
             (C-AL8-01396)

             Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown. Reasons
             1.4(b) an d (d).

             1. On 28 August, Zuma advisor Mo Shaik told PolOff that Zuma's
             legal team intends to subpoena \"everyone\" if Zuma loses his bid
             to have his case reexamined. Shaik specifically named President
             Mbeki, suspended National Police Chief Jackie Selebi, former and
             Acting Head of National Director of Public Prosecutions (NDPP)
             Vusi Pikoli and Mokotedi Mpshe, and former speaker of Parliament
             Frene Ginwala as potential witnesses. Shaik complained that all
             of these people know Zuma is innocent and that he does not
             understand why they have not come to Zuma's defense before now.

             2. Shaik also spoke at length about Zuma's current legal case,
             complaining that the facts in Zuma's case have been gathered and
             interpreted by National Prosecuting Authority only as a means of
             obtaining a conviction and preventing Zuma from becoming
             President, and not as a means of seeking the truth. Therefore,
             he said, the question is not whether the rule of law should
             prevail, but whether its abuse should continue. All Zuma is
             asking is the chance to explain to the NPA the facts gathered
             against him, he said. When PolOff asked if this wasn't what the
             trial was for, he told her she was not listening. Then in a very
             slow and patient tone, Shaik again \"explained\" that all the NPA
             has to do is treat the Zuma case in an \"impartial,
             non-political, truth-seeking manner, then they (the NPA) will
             come to understand Zuma is innocent.\" (NOTE: In a recent
             newspaper editorial, Shaik argued a similar case but added that
             his brother Schabir Shaik's financial contributions to Zuma were
             given as a \"comrade and friend,\" and not given with criminal
             intentions.

             The court's decision in May to have Shaik's assets forfeited in
             light of the corrupt relationship with Zuma sharply contradicts
             Shaik's reasoning. END NOTE)

             3. NOTE: On 12 September, Zuma will learn whether or not the
             state's decision to prosecute him without consulting him was
             legal. If Zuma loses the case, his trial for corruption,
             racketeering, tax evasion, and fraud will proceed, though a
             court date has still not been agreed upon by the state and
             defense. The thrust of Zuma's case rests on section 179(5)(d) of
             the Constitution which states that the NDPP may review a
             decision to prosecute after consulting with the relevant
             director of public prosecutions (DPP) and after taking
             representations from the accused. Shaik and Zuma's lawyers argue
             the Constitution guarantees the right to make representation
             when the NPA reverses a decision, and that Zuma was not given
             the opportunity when NPA \"reversed\" its decision and decided to
             recharge Zuma in December 2007. The state has argued that the
             decision to recharge Zuma did not amount to a reversal and that
             the law was not designed to protect the accused, but rather to
             protect the rights of the DPPs having their decisions overturned
             by the NDPP without consideration. END NOTE.

             4. COMMENT: As usual, Shaik treated PolOff as a friend, a child,
             a confident, and an adversary all in the same conversation. He
             always shares insights into the motivations and strategies of
             the Zuma camp, but also expects obvious respect and gratitude
             for it. PolOff does not know if Shaik meets with other
             diplomats, but presumes his contact within the diplomatic circle
             is limited. The Australian High Commissioner mentioned he had
             met Shaik once and Shaik QCommissioner mentioned he had met
             Shaik once and Shaik admitted he spoke to the Norwegians but did
             not say if this was on a regular or one-time basis. PolOff also
             knows Shaik used to meet with the French, but cut them off after
             a French diplomat insulted him immediately before the ANC
             conference at Polokwane. The Irish Ambassador asked PolOff to
             facilitate a meeting after seeing Shaik and PolOff together in a
             restaurant, but Shaik refused, telling PolOff she should guard
             her contacts more closely.

             END COMMENT.

             BOST

             On 1/25/11 1:11 PM, Mark Schroeder wrote:

               Hi Anya,

               Is there any chance you would know where to look to find this
               original cable? Thanks for any help.

               --Mark

               -------- Original Message --------

                Subject: [Africa] Fw: [OS] SOUTH AFRICA/CT- Wikileaks exposes 
                         SA spy boss                                          
                   Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2011 16:53:10 +0000                      
                   From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>               
               Reply-To: Africa AOR <africa@stratfor.com>                     
                     To: Africa AOR <africa@stratfor.com>                     

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

               From: Sean Noonan <sean.noonan@stratfor.com>
               Sender: os-bounces@stratfor.com
               Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2011 10:37:07 -0600
               To: The OS List<os@stratfor.com>
               ReplyTo: The OS List <os@stratfor.com>
               Subject: [OS] SOUTH AFRICA/CT- Wikileaks exposes SA spy boss
               Wikileaks exposes SA spy boss
               2011-01-23 09:19
               http://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/Wikileaks-exposes-SA-spy-boss-20110123

               Johannesburg - An explosive Wikileaks cable claims that spy
               boss and President Jacob Zuma confidante Moe Shaik threatened
               to expose the \"political skeletons\" of Zuma's enemies and
               reveals that he was cultivated by the Americans as a key
               informant within the Zuma camp.

               The fresh revelations are likely to shake the Zuma
               administration as they involve one of the president's key
               allies and the man tasked with running the country's secret
               service. They give new insight into the bitter battle which
               took place between Zuma's allies and those aligned to former
               President Thabo Mbeki prior to Mbeki's ousting.

               The confidential US Embassy diplomatic cable - titled Zuma
               advisor threatens to expose political skeletons- claims South
               African Secret Service boss Shaik, brother of convicted
               fraudster and Zuma funder Schabir, told the Americans that
               Zuma's legal team would subpoena the country's most
               influential figures if he lost a bid to have corruption
               charges against him \"re-examined\".

               The cable said he named Mbeki, the then suspended police
               commissioner Jackie Selebi, former director of Public
               Prosecutions Vusi Pikoli, then acting head of public
               prosecutions Mokotedi Mpshe as well as former  Speaker Frene
               Ginwala as targets.

               Shaik has refused to confirm or deny the claims.

               The cable - one of 250 000 leaked to Whistleblower website
               Wikileaks but obtained exclusively by Media24 Investigations -
               also reveals that the US Embassy in Pretoria actively
               cultivated Shaik as a key source of information on Zuma's
               inner circle and the \"motivations and strategies of the Zuma
               camp\".

               Dated September 10 2008, two days before corruption charges
               against Zuma were initially dismissed by Judge Chris
               Nicholson, the cable was sent to the Secretary of State in
               Washington DC and copied to US consuls in Durban and Cape
               Town, the CIA, the US Defence Intelligence Agency and the
               White House National Security Council.

               It is one of a number of classified cables recording meetings
               between Shaik - who was controversially appointed head of the
               South African Secret Service (SASS), South Africa's foreign
               intelligence wing, in October 2009 - and an unidentified US
               embassy political officer.

               \"Shaik complained that all these people know Zuma is innocent
               and that he does not understand why they have not come to
               Zuma's defence before now,\" the cable noted.

               Shared insights

               The cable noted that \"as usual\" Shaik treated the political
               officer or \"PolOff\" as \"a friend, a child, a confidante, and
               an adversary all in the same conversation\".

               \"He always shares insights into the motivations and strategies
               of the Zuma camp, but also expects obvious respect and
               gratitude for it.\"

               \"PolOff does not know if Shaik meets with other diplomats, but
               presumes his contact within the diplomatic circle is limited.\"

               \"The Australian High Commissioner mentioned he had met Shaik
               once before...and Shaik admitted he spoke to the Norwegians
               but did not say if this was on a regular or one-time basis.\"

               The cable notes that Shaik \"used to meet with the French, but
               cut them off after a French diplomat insulted him immediately
               before the ANC conference at Polokwane\".

               Ousting Mbeki

               The political officer reported that the Irish ambassador had
               approached her to arrange a meeting with Shaik after seeing
               her and Shaik in a restaurant together, \"but Shaik refused,
               telling PolOff she should guard her contacts more closely\".

               A source familiar with Shaik's interaction with the US
               diplomats claimed this week that Shaik had been tasked with
               winning diplomats over to the idea of a Zuma presidency.

               An earlier confidential cable, dated May 16 2008 speculated -
               after a meeting with Shaik - that the \"Zuma camp may be
               looking to oust Mbeki\".

               In a cable, dated June 4 2009, that focused on President
               Zuma's new cabinet, Shaik is said to have described the
               appointments of various presidential advisers, among them
               Collins Chabane - now minister in the presidency for
               performance monitoring, Ayanda Dlodlo - now deputy minister of
               public service and administration, Mandisi Mpahlwa - now envoy
               to Moscow, Lindiwe Zulu, Zuma's international affairs advisor
               and Bonisiwe Makhene as concessions to \"keep them quiet\".

               No comment

               Contacted this week, Shaik said: \"I will neither confirm nor
               deny that we had discussions with the Americans on these
               matters and I will definitely make no comment about the
               accuracy of those reports. The Americans must deal with
               accuracy.\"

               US embassy spokesperson Elizabeth Kennedy-Trudeau said the
               embassy would not confirm or comment on the contents or
               veracity of \"stolen documents\".

               \"The nature of cables in themselves is that these are one
               person's interpretation of a meeting, not official US public
               policy. The circumstances, because of the very nature of spot
               reporting are open to interpretation.\"
                

               - Rapport
               --

               Sean Noonan

               Tactical Analyst

               Office: +1 512-279-9479

               Mobile: +1 512-758-5967

               Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

               www.stratfor.com
","2011-01-25 21:20:16",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5114800_re-fwd-africa-fw-os-south-africa-ct-wikileaks-exposes-sa-spy.html","mark.schroeder@stratfor.com","","anya.alfano@stratfor.com",""
5120519,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged \"Anonymous\" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise \"anonymous\"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
","2011-11-10 19:47:39",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5120519_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5129451,"Re: Prince Rupert infrastructure question
","   Hey Marky,
   A 
   All is well here.A  Work is keeping me pretty busy, but that's all good.
   A 
   I've been up to Prince Rupert 3 times for work, so I'm pretty familiar
   with the port.A  I've mainly been focusing on the growing container
   business, so I'm not that familiar with the situation regarding pipelines.
   A 
   As far as container traffic goes, the port continues to grow, with 2010
   throughput increasing almost 30% over 2009 to 343,000 TEUs.A  The
   container terminal has capacity of 500,000 TEUs, so I think management is
   relatively satisfied with that growth.A  There is considerable interest in
   the port as it's the closest North American port to Asia - almost 3 days'
   sailing time closer than the major ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.A 
   The network of CN Rail connects Prince Rupert to all parts of Canada, but
   of more interest to many global shippers is the direct CN connections
   through Chicago and Memphis and all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico.A 
   There isn't much of a difference in rail times between LA/Long Beach to
   Chicago and Prince Rupert to Chicago, so overall there's still a
   significant time savings by shipping through Prince Rupert.A  Further,
   there are issues related to congestion in California, whereas the
   containers can get out of Prince Rupert and on their way to their next
   destination pretty quickly.A  At the same time, there are still concerns
   with the port - the container terminal has only been in operation for 3
   years, so it's still relatively \"unproven\", CN is the only railway to
   connect to Prince Rupert so it has a \"monopoly\" and can charge higher
   rates, and there are fears about the Canada/US border and whether
   aA shipment getsA stopped by US Customs.
   A 
   Many global shipping lines have visited the port to study the facilities
   first hand and discuss with management.A  Currently, there are only
   2-3A container ships that call on Prince Rupert - not a large number and
   all a part of the CKYH Alliance.A It is expected, however,A that an
   additionalA 1 or 2 ships will start calling in 2011, and that will bring
   the port closer to its capacity.
   A 
   As far as expansion plans go, the port fully expects container throughput
   to increase and is moving forward to expand its capacity to 2 million TEUs
   by 2014.A  The environmental assessment and design plans are already
   underway.A  Along with that, the port has about 1,000 acres of land that
   it plans to develop for things such as additional/expanded bulk terminals,
   a roro-terminal,A logistics facilities, warehousing, and so on.
   A 
   The port also had a record year for coal shipments, with 2010 almost
   doubling the volume of 2009.A  With increasing Asian demand, volumes are
   expected to increase.A  Ridley terminal, the coal terminal operator, has
   expansion plans already underway.
   A 
   Regarding the pipeline project, I am not as familiar with this one.A 
   Enbridge is the entity that is working on it.A  There is quite a bit of
   interest, and Sinopec has committed $100 million to the project.A  There
   is still a lot of preparatory work that needs to get done, and perhaps
   that's why I'm not very familiar with the project - it's still a little
   way off.A  Public consultations are due to continue through 2011.A  The
   government review process will continue until at least 2012.A 
   Construction could begin in 2013 and should take about 3 1/2 years.A  If
   everything runs smoothly, it could be operational by the end of 2016.
   A 
   That was a long email.A  Feel free to give me a call if you want more
   info!
   A 
   Talk to you later.
   Al

   On 21 January 2011 23:49, Mark Schroeder <mark.schroeder@stratfor.com>
   wrote:

     Hey there lil' bro,

     We had a little talk this morning at work about the infrastructure plans
     for Prince Rupert. This is about trade with Asia, the Asia gateway, etc.
     Have you heard any more talk on plans for expanding infrastructure there
     -- some folks are real interested (stuff like what port changes they
     have in mind in addition to new pipelines that are possible).

     Hope all is good in Tokyo. Thanks for any thoughts.
     --Mark
","2011-01-24 01:26:55",1,"2012-06-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5129451_re-prince-rupert-infrastructure-question-.html","aes.jpn@gmail.com","","mark.schroeder@stratfor.com",""
5131896,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
","   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart <stewart@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>; Korena Zucha<zucha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>, Alpha List
   <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
","2011-11-18 21:17:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5131896_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5135517,"DISPATCH DISCUSSION - Aug 2 - TURKEY - Civilian Supremacy Over
	Military in the Foreign Policy Arena
","   Thesis: Turkey's ruling Justice & Development Party (AKP) has succeeded in
   asserting civilian supremacy over the country's erstwhile powerful
   milityary (TSK). The AKP will now like to utilize the TSK for its
   assertive foreign policy agenda. But it will take many years (if not a
   couple of decades) to materialize given the lengthy and complex task of
   reformatting the institution which was designed as the guardian of the
   secularist nature of the Turkish republic to one that can serve as a major
   instrument of an internationally resurgent Turkey.

   Three Bullet Points:

   - The reality of the AKP triumph over the TSK
   - AKP's intended role for the TSK
   - Why it is unlikely that AKP's intended vision for the TSK will take time
   to materialize

   On 8/1/11 3:52 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

     Yes. Let me send the thesis and bullet points.
     On 8/1/11 3:52 PM, Brian Genchur wrote:

       Hi Kamran,
       Are you able to turn this into a Dispatch for recording tomorrow
       morning at 9:20amCT?
       Please let us know.  We'll need your thesis and bullet points
       submitted to the Analyst list as soon as possible.  
       Thank you!
       Brian
       Begin forwarded message:
       From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>
       Subject: Re: TURnKEY - What happened today or is happening in the YSK
       meeting?
       Date: August 1, 2011 1:42:06 PM CDT
       To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
       Cc: multimedia@stratfor.com
       Reply-To: Multimedia List <multimedia@stratfor.com>
       what is really interesting about this to me is the sentiment you can
       see from the AKP looking forward where they understand now that they
       have made the military their subordinates.  It'll take some time for
       them to feel sure of that, but that confidence is becoming more
       apparent. At the same time, Turkey is being pushed to deal with issues
       in its periphery.  As I mentioned in an earlier insight email, the AKP
       is so embarrassed that the Iranian navy is doing all this shit while
       their military has been out of the game for decades and has spent more
       time plotting coups than anything else.  We should expect to see a
       major transformation take place in which the AKP will have to make the
       decision to revamp the military.  And that means the US-Turkey
       relationship becomes that much more important and that countries like
       Russia, Iran, etc. have something to get more nervous about

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: \"Jacob Shapiro\" <jacob.shapiro@stratfor.com>
       To: analysts@stratfor.com
       Cc: multimedia@stratfor.com
       Sent: Monday, August 1, 2011 1:25:10 PM
       Subject: Re: TURnKEY - What happened today or is happening in the YSK
       meeting?

       this might make a good dispatch for tomorrow

       On 8/1/11 1:12 PM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

         The reason why Turkey is not there yet is because it takes a long
         time to restructure an army towards assertive foreign policy
         purposes. And in Ankara's case, it is at the beginning of the
         process of taming the lion. Riding the beast will take even longer
         than a state which didn't have a civil-military relationship heavily
         in favor of the men in uniform for so long. The first step entails
         getting a batch of commanders who are beholden to the AKP for their
         positions. This has to be followed by ingraining a culture within
         the officers and soldiery that moves away from seeing itself as a
         praetorian force that is the sole guardian of the republic's
         Kemalist ideals to one that is the defender of the constitution
         (which btw will need to be tweaked and will take its own time). This
         culture change really sets in when the those who learn in it in the
         academy (where the curriculum will need to be revised) come to
         maturity. We are talking a generational shift. Till then there will
         always be officers and commanders who have been cultivated in the
         old culture and they will begrudgingly accept civilian dominance.
         There will also be a need to come up with a new military doctrine
         and the physical training and preparation for a military force that
         will be projecting power overseas. [Here it is useful to point out
         that while Iran lacks the military capability it is way ahead of
         Turkey in terms of culture, doctrine, and motivation]. Finally,
         there is the issue of Turkey's role as a NATO member and how that
         would begin to conflict with an assertive foreign policy. 
         On 8/1/11 1:57 PM, Emre Dogru wrote:

           I agree with this, George. AKP got half of the votes. Point. If
           the army had another choice, no commander would have resigned.
           They would have forced the government to resign like in 1960,
           1971, 1980 and 1997. They resigned because we are in 2011. Army
           tried to prevent Gul from being elected as president in 2007, it
           didn't work, and that was the beginning of the end (Ergenekon and
           Sledgehammer are just AKP's tools, and yes, they are not fake
           plots).

           In a region where some countries, such as Egypt, are becoming
           similar to what Turkey had been in 1980s and 1990s, Turkey cannot
           remain the same. As I said before, we need to move on from the
           internal Turkish army dynamics and civil-military balance to a
           more geopolitical based perspective. We need to think about how
           subordination of the Turkish army to the civilian government will
           affect Turkey's foreign policy, it's strategy to extend its
           influence beyond its borders. How will the Turkish army be
           reconstructed so that it can be effectively used as a foreign
           policy tool.

           Last time George was in Turkey, he said two things. First, Turkey
           is not \"there\" yet (but it acts as if it is in 2030) and it needs
           to build institutions. Second, \"it must get its hand dirty\" when
           needed. I believe we need to see the dramatic change within the
           military and the balance between government and the military
           within this perspective.
           George Friedman wrote:

             The nature of the republic changed with the sledgehammer
             arrests. This just makes it official 

             With the massive majority of the akp, it is inconceivable that
             turkey wouldn't change and its a fantasy to imagine that it will
             ever go back. 

             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: Kamran Bokhari <bokhari@stratfor.com>
             Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
             Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2011 11:00:43 -0500 (CDT)
             To: <analysts@stratfor.com>
             ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
             Subject: Re: TURKEY - What happened today or is happening in the
             YSK meeting?
             If this is true, then what we have is a massive change in the
             nature of the Turkish republic. 
             On 8/1/11 11:57 AM, George Friedman wrote:

               I think that sledgehammer was real and the revelations at the
               trial put the generals in an impossible position. The option
               of resistance isn't there in a country where the akp holds a
               large majority and where the danger of discrediting the
               military is real. Erdogan used this reality to move turkey
               back to the status of a normal state in which the military is
               subordinate to the government. The military can't organize a
               coup and the consequences of a coup would devastate turkey,
               and leave a majority of the population hostile. This is not
               1980 where the us and nato supported the coup. It would mean
               isolation.
               Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

               From: Kamran Bokhari <bokhari@stratfor.com>
               Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
               Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2011 10:44:20 -0500 (CDT)
               To: Michael Wilson<michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
               ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
               Cc: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
               Subject: Re: TURKEY - What happened today or is happening in
               the YSK meeting?
               I have been wondering about the intentions of the 3-stars who
               are next in line. Do they simply accept that their institution
               is not in a position to do much at this time and move on? Some
               of them would like to get promoted and assume the top jobs. Or
               will there be some sort of backlash from these guys? Surely,
               what has happened has created debate within the corps
               commander ranks as to what should be the stance of the
               institution. There is also the concern that any stance must be
               unified such that the integrity of the institution is
               preserved. There is also of course the need to make sure that
               the AKP doesn't use any disagreements within the TSK hierarchy
               to its advantage and further enhance its upper hand. 

               The appointment of Ozel as landforces commander and acting TSK
               chief reminds me of what happened in Pakistan during the
               second term of former Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif in
               1998-99. Sharif forced army chief Gen Jahangir Karamat to
               resign and we there was the highly rare instance of an army
               chief folding under pressure from a civilian govt. Sharif
               replaced Karamat with Musharraf and GHQ as an institution
               accepted the change. But then when after the Kargil war in 99
               Sharif fired Musharraf and replaced him with the then ISI
               chief Gen. Ziauddin Butt, the institution struck back and we
               had the coup that brought Musharraf to power. 

               Obviously, a coup is unlikely in present day Turkey. But I am
               also having a hard time believing that the TSK will simply
               accept what has happened and move on. 

               On 8/1/11 11:28 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

                 They are meeting again on Tuesday

                 Turkish high military council meets amid tensions

                 Aug 1, 2011, 15:04 GMT
                 http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/europe/news/article_1654323.php/Turkish-high-military-council-meets-amid-tensions
                 Ankara - The first day of Turkey's High Military Council
                 meeting ended quietly Monday, with the government and
                 generals trying to convey their relations were back on track
                 after the shock resignation of the country's top four
                 commanders.

                 Signs of tension between Turkey's secular military and
                 Islamic- oriented government were manifest at the meeting
                 chaired by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the
                 General Staff's headquarters.

                 One of the seven generals who attended, Nusret Tasdeler, the
                 commander of the Aegean Army, is facing a warrant for arrest
                 on charges of waging an Internet campaign against the
                 Justice and Development Party government.

                 Journalists allowed into the chamber to take pictures at the
                 start of the four-day meeting noted that five of the 14
                 seats were empty - evidence of the disorder created by
                 Friday's resignation of the chief of general staff and the
                 heads of the army, navy and air force.

                 Orderlies had removed the superfluous chairs, but they did
                 not remove the microphones embedded into the oval table.

                 The council has the job of choosing commanders and senior
                 officers to replace those scheduled to retire at the end of
                 the month.

                 Disagreement over the selection provoked the resignations,
                 with the chief of general staff, General Isik Kosaner,
                 saying he had stepped down because he could not shield his
                 fellow officers from prosecution and being denied promotion
                 over coup plot allegations.

                 Erdogan moved quickly, replacing Kosaner with General Necdet
                 Ozel, the head of the paramilitary gendarmerie. Ozel was
                 appointed head of the army and acting chief of general staff
                 on Friday night.

                 Regarded as a general with whom the government can get
                 along, Ozel is certain to be appointed chief of general
                 staff when the council concludes its business Thursday,
                 political observers in Ankara agree.

                 Ozel led the military delegation to the council meeting,
                 which was attended by the defence minister, and held a
                 private meeting with Prime Minister Erdogan on Monday
                 afternoon.

                 When the council's first session ended at noontime, the
                 prime minister led the generals on a traditional visit to
                 the mausoleum of Kemal Ataturk, founder of the modern
                 Turkish republic, where he laid a wreath.

                 Turkish prime ministers visit the mausoleum regularly to
                 reaffirm their allegiance to the secular values of the
                 founder of the republic.

                 The council will reconvene on Tuesday. 

                 On 8/1/11 10:15 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

                   What is the latest with the move to appoint replacements
                   to the 4 top generals that threw in the towel? 

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com

      

 --
 Emre Dogru

 STRATFOR
 Cell:  +90.532.465.7514
 Fixed: +1.512.279.9468
 emre.dogru@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com

       -- 
       Jacob Shapiro 
       STRATFOR 
       Director, Operations Center 
       cell: 404.234.9739 
       office: 512.279.9489 
       e-mail: jacob.shapiro@stratfor.com
       Brian Genchur
       Director, Multimedia | STRATFOR
       brian.genchur@stratfor.com
       (512) 279-9463
       www.stratfor.com
","2011-08-01 23:42:14",1,"2012-03-06 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5135517_dispatch-discussion-aug-2-turkey-civilian-supremacy-over.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
5142017,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We too have always question the veracity of the kidnapping claim, but the
   premise made sense. 
   The alleged \"Anonymous\" activist kidnapped was reportedly engaged in a
   physical distribution of leaflets as a part of what they called Operation
   Paperstorm. This real-workd activity would make an otherwise \"anonymous\"
   activist vulnerable to real-world detection and abduction - especially
   while posting flyers denouncing government corruption and support for Los
   Zetas. 
   Also, we made the opposite argument in our weekly. We noted that the US,
   British and Turkish governments have arrested hundreds of these guys, so
   they are not all that anonymous, and we believed the Mexican Government
   and the cartels likely had the capability to identify at least some of
   them too. 
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Thu, 10 Nov 2011 13:27:01 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
   Source Code: US711
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
   responsibilities
   SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
   his take)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: None
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

   I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
   article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she be
   kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
   anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous, because
   someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first place.  It is
   anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped victim and not
   the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a kidnapping victim
   anyway not under such threats.  If they did they already know who
   anonymous is as I am certain they would have interrogated the anonymous
   victim before letting him/her go.  This is why I do not even believe there
   was a kidnapping in the first place.  If the Zetas can find out who
   anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S. Governments.  The Zetas are not
   that good above what the U.S. and Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think
   the kidnapping was a hoax.

   Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
   http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
   November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

   Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

   The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
   Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
   Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
   Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
   the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

   Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
   comment.

   The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its demand
   that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to do so will
   force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers, journalists and
   police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking group known for
   displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

   In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
   Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask of
   Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the Zetas if
   the kidnapped hacker is not released.

   Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
   consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
   cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves by
   Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

   Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
   track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

   The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
   the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that the
   kidnapping was a hoax.
","2011-11-10 19:47:39",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5142017_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5153399,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111
","   this dude really gives the impression that Moscow calls the shots in Kiev

   so basically, Med gets pissed b/c Timo is blowing Putin and not him, so he
   whines to Putin and says drop the B and get behind Yanu like me. Putin
   says fine, Yanu gets excited and oversteps his boundaries, and now Putin
   is like fix this shit Med and Med is like okay, but we dont know what Med
   is actually gonna do to slap Yanu around

   so what's the couterargument to this? Does Russia really have this much
   influence over the situation?  this is something we need to address in
   ukraine reassessment

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Marc Lanthemann\" <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 1:48:33 PM
   Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - UKRAINE - Moscow-Kiev Spat - UA111

   CODE: UA111
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Kiev
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  A senior pro-western diplomat in Kiev
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   DISTRIBUTION: Alpha
   HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Yes, yes, the spat between Kiev and Moscow has been really fun to watch.
   But Yanukovich may be overstepping his bounds with the Kremlin if he keeps
   this up. He has already really ticked off Putina**who didna**t like him to
   begin with.

    

   You already pretty much know this storya**Putin never wanted Yanukovich in
   power without a counter-balance to keep him in check. Putin knew
   Yanukovich could win on his own, but wanted a super-majority in order to
   solidify the Kremlina**s meddling in Kiev. He wanted that to be
   Timoshenko, not because she is pro-Russian, but that she was the most
   easily bought out of all the top politicians. Of course, this is what got
   her in trouble and arrested.

    

   But Medvedev has never liked Timoshenko, mainly because she gave him no
   respect in any meeting and would only deal with Putin personally. Medvedev
   made the decision that Timoshenko cana**t be put into power, so he made a
   deal with Putin. Medvedev swore that he would keep Yanukovich in line if
   Putin dropped his support of Timoshenko. Putin agreed in return for being
   the one to draw up the list of new Ukrainians going into power in the SBU,
   military, ministries, etc. Also that Russia would get the base extension
   it had been pushing for.

    

   So when Timoshenko and Yanukovich showed up in Moscow at the end of 2009,
   the tandem broke the news to Yanukovich privately that they were willing
   to drop support for Timoshenko if he would agree to Putina**s list of
   demands. Yanukovich jumped all over it, naturally.

    

   Now that Yanukovich is acting out, Putin has snapped the leash on Medvedev
   to fix this. It is kind of a test for Medvedev. This is why the railing
   against Ukraine has come from Medvedev, not Putin. Question is which lever
   will Medvedev pull to get Yanukovich back in line.

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2011-09-14 20:55:23",1,"2012-02-28 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5153399_re-alpha-insight-ukraine-moscow-kiev-spat-ua111-.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5154731,"Re: TURnKEY - What happened today or is happening in the YSK meeting?
","   The nature of the republic changed with the sledgehammer arrests. This
   just makes it official

   With the massive majority of the akp, it is inconceivable that turkey
   wouldn't change and its a fantasy to imagine that it will ever go back.

   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Kamran Bokhari <bokhari@stratfor.com>
   Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2011 11:00:43 -0500 (CDT)
   To: <analysts@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: TURKEY - What happened today or is happening in the YSK
   meeting?
   If this is true, then what we have is a massive change in the nature of
   the Turkish republic.
   On 8/1/11 11:57 AM, George Friedman wrote:

     I think that sledgehammer was real and the revelations at the trial put
     the generals in an impossible position. The option of resistance isn't
     there in a country where the akp holds a large majority and where the
     danger of discrediting the military is real. Erdogan used this reality
     to move turkey back to the status of a normal state in which the
     military is subordinate to the government. The military can't organize a
     coup and the consequences of a coup would devastate turkey, and leave a
     majority of the population hostile. This is not 1980 where the us and
     nato supported the coup. It would mean isolation.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Kamran Bokhari <bokhari@stratfor.com>
     Sender: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2011 10:44:20 -0500 (CDT)
     To: Michael Wilson<michael.wilson@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
     Cc: Analyst List<analysts@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: TURKEY - What happened today or is happening in the YSK
     meeting?
     I have been wondering about the intentions of the 3-stars who are next
     in line. Do they simply accept that their institution is not in a
     position to do much at this time and move on? Some of them would like to
     get promoted and assume the top jobs. Or will there be some sort of
     backlash from these guys? Surely, what has happened has created debate
     within the corps commander ranks as to what should be the stance of the
     institution. There is also the concern that any stance must be unified
     such that the integrity of the institution is preserved. There is also
     of course the need to make sure that the AKP doesn't use any
     disagreements within the TSK hierarchy to its advantage and further
     enhance its upper hand.

     The appointment of Ozel as landforces commander and acting TSK chief
     reminds me of what happened in Pakistan during the second term of former
     Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif in 1998-99. Sharif forced army
     chief Gen Jahangir Karamat to resign and we there was the highly rare
     instance of an army chief folding under pressure from a civilian govt.
     Sharif replaced Karamat with Musharraf and GHQ as an institution
     accepted the change. But then when after the Kargil war in 99 Sharif
     fired Musharraf and replaced him with the then ISI chief Gen. Ziauddin
     Butt, the institution struck back and we had the coup that brought
     Musharraf to power.

     Obviously, a coup is unlikely in present day Turkey. But I am also
     having a hard time believing that the TSK will simply accept what has
     happened and move on.

     On 8/1/11 11:28 AM, Michael Wilson wrote:

       They are meeting again on Tuesday

       Turkish high military council meets amid tensions

       Aug 1, 2011, 15:04 GMT
       http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/europe/news/article_1654323.php/Turkish-high-military-council-meets-amid-tensions
       Ankara - The first day of Turkey's High Military Council meeting ended
       quietly Monday, with the government and generals trying to convey
       their relations were back on track after the shock resignation of the
       country's top four commanders.

       Signs of tension between Turkey's secular military and Islamic-
       oriented government were manifest at the meeting chaired by Prime
       Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the General Staff's headquarters.

       One of the seven generals who attended, Nusret Tasdeler, the commander
       of the Aegean Army, is facing a warrant for arrest on charges of
       waging an Internet campaign against the Justice and Development Party
       government.

       Journalists allowed into the chamber to take pictures at the start of
       the four-day meeting noted that five of the 14 seats were empty -
       evidence of the disorder created by Friday's resignation of the chief
       of general staff and the heads of the army, navy and air force.

       Orderlies had removed the superfluous chairs, but they did not remove
       the microphones embedded into the oval table.

       The council has the job of choosing commanders and senior officers to
       replace those scheduled to retire at the end of the month.

       Disagreement over the selection provoked the resignations, with the
       chief of general staff, General Isik Kosaner, saying he had stepped
       down because he could not shield his fellow officers from prosecution
       and being denied promotion over coup plot allegations.

       Erdogan moved quickly, replacing Kosaner with General Necdet Ozel, the
       head of the paramilitary gendarmerie. Ozel was appointed head of the
       army and acting chief of general staff on Friday night.

       Regarded as a general with whom the government can get along, Ozel is
       certain to be appointed chief of general staff when the council
       concludes its business Thursday, political observers in Ankara agree.

       Ozel led the military delegation to the council meeting, which was
       attended by the defence minister, and held a private meeting with
       Prime Minister Erdogan on Monday afternoon.

       When the council's first session ended at noontime, the prime minister
       led the generals on a traditional visit to the mausoleum of Kemal
       Ataturk, founder of the modern Turkish republic, where he laid a
       wreath.

       Turkish prime ministers visit the mausoleum regularly to reaffirm
       their allegiance to the secular values of the founder of the republic.

       The council will reconvene on Tuesday.

       On 8/1/11 10:15 AM, Kamran Bokhari wrote:

         What is the latest with the move to appoint replacements to the 4
         top generals that threw in the towel?

 --
 Michael Wilson
 Director of Watch Officer Group, STRATFOR
 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112
 michael.wilson@stratfor.com
","2011-08-01 18:05:46",1,"2012-03-06 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5154731_re-turnkey-what-happened-today-or-is-happening-in-the-ysk.html","friedman@att.blackberry.net","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
5175172,"[alpha] INSIGHT - CHINA - News about Ore Prices and SSY Futures Ltd
 Iron Ore Report - via CN65
","   SOURCE: via CN65
   ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government and 
   natural resources
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator
   PUBLICATION: Yes, but without attribution (please speak with me first)
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Speak with me before any publication
   SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

     Iron Ore Prices:

          Physical iron ore prices remained little changed on
     Wednesday.

          There is still very little trading activity as China
     remains to the sidelines whilst dealing with delays in
     discharging of existing purchased ore due to bad weather.
     Especially high winds at some discharge ports (EG Rhizao and
     Liangyungang) continues to prevent berthing and shifting.
     Bad weather delays are also reducing takeaway capacity
     which is significantly reducing China's daily import capacity
     and has caused heavy congestion in Her ports. China is focusing
     to clear Her congestion before purchasing fresh spot ore which
     would attract additonal heavy congestion charges and add to
     delivered costs.

         In the meantime the affect of Chinese congestion is to
     continue to delay arrivals for ongoing shipments forcing miners
     to fix spot spot replacement vessels which just yesterday (since
     Rhizao/Lianyungang closures due to high winds the day before)
     has forced Woz/Qingdao spot rates back up from USD 11.50 to
     USD 13.30 reported fixed late last night for a 16-20 dec
     arrival West Aussie.

          Rio Tinto sold a 165kt cargo of Australian 57% Fe Robe
     River fines at $125.68/dmt CFR Qingdao through a tender.

          Indian miner Fomento sold two Panamax cargoes of 57/56%
     Fe material at $98/dmt FOPB Goa.

          Bagadiya Bros dropped their offer for Indian 63.5/63 Fe
     fines, to $144/$148 from $148/$151 overnight.  

          The TSI was marked down just 20 cents with Platts
     unchanged.

     TSI 62% (3.5% Al):   $139.40 (-$0.20)       
     PLATTS 62%:          $141.50 (unch)       
     MBIOI 62%:           $139.91 (+$0.21)
     TSI 62% (2.0% Al):   $140.90 (-$0.20)

     Market comments:

         Offers for iron ore cargoes have dropped with Indian 63.5/63
     grade material down to $148 a tonne from $151 earlier this week,
     reports Reuters.

         Top iron ore miner Vale sold two cargoes this week at prices
     lower than index-based reference prices. One cargo with 246,000
     tonnes of 64.4-grade iron ore fines was sold at $144.15 a tonne,
     C&F, and another shipment with 236,000 tonnes of 63.2-grade fines
     was sold at $141.5 a tonne, both via tenders, Reuters added.

         Global miners, including Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton ,
     are all running their production at full capacity, convinced Chinese
     demand will remain strong as the country continues to invest
     heavily in urbanisation and infrastructure, reports Reuters.

         China's average daily crude steel output in late November
     rose for the first time since late September, although doubts
     remain about underlying steel demand as the government's
     clampdown on the property sector stayed in place, Reuters added.

         Vale SA, the world.s largest iron-ore producer, said it.s
     in talks with customers including ArcelorMittal and China Steel
     Corp. to cut contract prices after clients pressured the company
     to revise its pricing system, reports Bloomberg. Almost
     80 percent of the company.s iron-ore sales are based on the
     current quarter.s price, compared with a previous system that
     used the period ending a month before the onset of a new
     quarter, Jose Carlos Martins, head of iron-ore and strategy
     for Vale, said. .With the recent drop in prices we got a lot
     of pressure from customers to change. the pricing system,
     Martins told reporters during a press conference after Vale
     hosted a meeting with investors. .We are more flexible to
     accept the price reality from the market..

         Fortescue Metals Group, Australia's third-biggest exporter
     of iron ore, sees strong prices for the steelmaking ingredient
     in 2012 with potential for quick declines similar to those
     seen this year, reports The Sydney Morning Herald.

         Prices .will be reasonably strong, but don't be surprised
     if there's a couple of sudden dips,. Chairman Andrew Forrest
     said in an interview in London today. .I call reasonable
     anything above $US100. That's a good sustainable iron ore price..

         In November this year, iron ore shipments from Australia's
     Port Hedland increased by 25.9% YoY and were slightly down
     by 0.4% MoM, totaling 19.8 million tonnes, reports Steel Guru.

         According to Port Hedland Port Authority, iron ore shipments
     made from Port Hedland to China amounted to 14.73 million
     tonnes in November, decreasing by 0.1% compared to October
     of the current year and up 24.3% YoY. Japan was the second
     largest export destination for iron ore shipments from Port
     Hedland, with shipments totaling 2.4 million metric tonnes
     up by 23.9% YoY and up 10.4% from October.

 --

 Benjamin Preisler
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +216 22 73 23 19
 www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-12-09 12:39:09",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5175172_-alpha-insight-china-news-about-ore-prices-and-ssy-futures.html","ben.preisler@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com","attach/8/8666_20111208_IronOreReport.pdf"
5192411,"Re: Wikileaks -- South Africa, May 16, 2008
","   Did you find the one related to our meeting?

   Nate Taylor
   512 970 7576
   On Jan 26, 2011, at 10:05 AM, Mark Schroeder <mark.schroeder@stratfor.com>
   wrote:

     Confidential cable from the US Embassy Pretoria to the Secretary of
     State, Washington DC (and others), May 16 2008:

     SUBJECT: ZUMA CAMP MAY BE LOOKING TO OUST MBEKI

     Classified By: Political Counselor Raymond L. Brown. Reasons 1.4(b) and
     (d).

     1. On 14 May, PolOff met with Zuma advisor Mo Shaik who told her that
     Zuma is likely to assume the national Presidency before March or April
     next year, when parliamentary elections would normally be held. When
     asked if the Zuma camp had enough votes in Parliament (three-quarters)
     needed to call a vote of no-confidence, Shaik replied, \"that would not
     be an issue.\"

     However, he also asked PolOff if she had ever considered a scenario
     where Mbeki's entire Cabinet deserted him, forcing him to resign.

     PolOff asked why Mbeki couldn't just appoint a new Cabinet, but Shaik
     answered with another question, asking \"who would join Mbeki's cabinet
     now? It would be suicide.\" He also added that momentum is building in
     the ANC for Mbeki's removal and that the business community was
     \"begging\" them to do it.

     2. PolOff also met on 15 May with a French diplomat, who confirmed that
     he was hearing the same thing from the Zuma camp and some other
     diplomats (especially the Germans), but said he did not believe Mbeki
     would back down so easily. He added that there is no evidence that Mbeki
     is willing to cave to the Zuma camp, pointing out that Mbeki is still
     putting off ANC Secretary General Kgalema Motlanthe's inclusion into his
     cabinet. (NOTE: When PolOff asked Shaik what position Motlanthe will
     assume, he snidely said, \"Why don't you ask your friend Mbeki?\" END
     NOTE)

     3. BIO NOTE. Meeting Shaik is always work, but this meeting was
     particularly pointed and painful, with Shaik coming across as vengeful,
     insecure, and antagonistic. Over time, PolOff has managed to build some
     rapport with him. For example, during PolOff's last meeting, Shaik
     admitted he was looking forward to the birth of his first child (whom he
     jokingly referred to as \"the little dictator\"), and even sent PolOff an
     SMS when his wife went into labor. However, during this meeting (which
     he called), he refused to be drawn into any personal conversation.

     Instead, Shaik spent much of the hour and a half berating the United
     States in general (for \"never recognizing a bus when it hits us\"), but
     also the FBI and State Department in particular. He made a point of
     telling PolOff that \"he knows all about the FBI's role in selling South
     Africa the idea of a law-enforcement agency with no oversight\" i.e., the
     Scorpions), going so far as to name former NLEA officers. He implied the
     FBI purposefully sold South Africa an idea that the U.S. would never
     allow on its own soil. He also repeatedly criticized the recent trip by
     Assistant Secretary Frazer for coming to the continent to talk to
     leaders about Zimbabwe, calling U.S. officials \"stupid and arrogant.\"

     4. COMMENT. Shaik is right in pointing out that there are many in the
     Zuma camp who wish to take full revenge on Mbeki and end his tenure
     early. Shaik, more than anyone, likely personalizes the issue given the
     fact he blames the Scorpions for sending his brother to prison (not
     because he was guilty). However, it is unclear if the Zuma camp has
     reached a tipping point, especially within Mbeki's cabinet, which has
     remained virtually unchanged for his entire tenure.

     The Zuma camp has definitely gained a number of converts since Polokwane
     simply because people want to stay on during the next administration,
     but whether it is enough to oust Mbeki is unclear.

     5. COMMENT CONT'D. However, there are also advantages to allowing Mbeki
     to stay in power for his full term, a fact even Shaik has admitted in
     previous meetings. Mbeki has had better days politically, but the Zuma
     camp, for all its talk, is unlikely to come in and fix all of South
     Africa's problems overnight. Combating crime, solving South Africa's
     electricity shortages, increasing employment, improving service
     delivery, and convincing Zimbabwean President Mugabe to step down are
     not easy fixes. The fact is the longer Mbeki stays in power, the better
     Zuma will look -- at least in the short-term -- when elections come
     around next year.

     BOST
","2011-01-27 18:13:27",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5192411_re-wikileaks-south-africa-may-16-2008-.html","nhtaylor1998@yahoo.com","","mark.schroeder@stratfor.com",""
5206181,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
 CODE
","   It might sound strange, but some of the most radical deep ecology people
   actually believe that there are too many people on the earth and that
   radical steps must be taken to reduce the population and save the earth.
    This strain of deep ecology is a clear reflection of the way the movement
   was heavily influenced by people like Martin Heidegger who were also
   committed to Nazism. Yes, Nazis were radical environmentalists.....
   From: Marc Lanthemann <marc.lanthemann@stratfor.com>
   Organization: STRATFOR
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 23:08:31 -0600
   To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Jesus I spent a couple of hours researching these guys - weird is an
   understatement. Apparently they met yesterday a couple of blocks away from
   my house to consolidate their leadership, go through basic indoctrination
   and plan more events. As far as I can tell, the Austin chapter is not
   nearly as radical as the central Lierre Keith DGR whose website is a
   treasure trove of incitment to passive resistance, blowing up energy
   infra, basic counter intel and legal guidance.

   Their ideology seems to be a mix of hardcore environmentalism, anarchism,
   radical feminism and the general notion that we need to go back living
   sustainably like the american indians by blowing up every pipeline and
   cell tower on the planet. Unlike the central DGR, Austin DGR doesn't seem
   to have defined targets and goals (their meeting yesterday was a
   brainstorming session on what radical environmentalism means in Austin).

   just a few nice quotes from their central website:

   The task of an activist is not to navigate systems of oppressive power
   with as much personal integrity as possible; it is to dismantle those
   systems.

   What would we do if Nazis had invaded, and they were vacuuming the oceans,
   scalping native forests, damming every river, changing the climate, and
   putting carcinogens into every mother's breast milk, and into the flesh of
   your children, your lover, your mother, into your own flesh? How much
   worse would the damage have to get? Would you resist? If there existed a
   resistance movement, would you join it?

   On 11/16/11 7:42 PM, Victoria Allen wrote:

     WHOA.
     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
     Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
     Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2011 18:38:01 -0600
     To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>
     ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
     Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
     CODE
     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.

 --
 Marc Lanthemann
 Watch Officer
 STRATFOR
 +1 609-865-5782
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-17 14:01:00",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5206181_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5211776,"Please Leave WikiLeaks featured
","   It's getting tons of freelist signups

   --
   Jenna Colley
   STRATFOR
   Director, Content Publishing
   C: 512-567-1020
   F: 512-744-4334
   jenna.colley@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-12-08 20:18:24",1,"2012-03-01 23:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5211776_please-leave-wikileaks-featured-.html","jenna.colley@stratfor.com","","writers@stratfor.com",""
5225759,"[alpha] Afghanistan
","   CN65 sent me this video.  He is mates with Craig Coleman in the video.  I
   am sending it along in case there may be any questions for Craig.  My
   source can speak with him directly if so and Craig seems open to
   discussion.ia'; 'Risk Reduction Services Australia'; 'Ash Cooper'; 'Allan
   Mansell'; 'Bill Ochee'; 'Steve Salmon'; 'George Friend'; 'George Friend'

     Subject: SBS Dateline
      
     All,
      
     I was interviewed on SBS Dateline last night along with Jim Molan. My
     point of view was that Afghanistan is going to fail because the emphasis
     is just on military and not on the important factors that are fuelling
     the insurgency.
      
     The link is below:
      
     http://www.sbs.com.au/dateline/story/watch/id/601300/n/The-Taliban-Strikes-Back
      
     Please feel free to provide feedback and criticism to me and also as you
     wish. The gloves are off and now I am going to speak out about this
     ridiculous ongoing situation. The further it is distributed the more
     opportunity I will get to speak my mind publicly and raise awareness of
     the real situation and the impending failure.
      
","2011-08-10 12:49:52",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5225759_-alpha-afghanistan-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5231832,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-11 13:59:34",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5231832_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5256329,"[alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA/AZ/US/VZ/RUSSIA/TAIWAN - Erdogan's
 cancer, Turkish plan for Syria and more - TR325
","   SOURCE: TR325 and his business partner
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former NSC official in Turkey, adviser to Erdogan,
   energy expert negotiator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   TR325's business partner has an old classmate friend who was the lead
   surgeon on Erdogan's most recent operation. He said that Erdogan has colon
   cancer, but they haven't seen the second biopsy results yet to see if it's
   metastasized. In the last operation, they cut out 20 cm of Erdogan's colon
   (I just looked up that the average colon is about 1.5m long.)  That's a
   really significant operation. Erdogan is not going to be able to travel
   for a while, and he's going to have to carry around with him a colonoscopy
   bag for at least 2-3 months.  The prognosis is not looking good, though.
   The surgeon said they were estimating 2 years for him.

   This is very likely going to cause major splits within the AKP.  Gul
   doesn't have much support.  Davutoglu is paranoid that everyone else is
   trying to undermine him (there's a definite competition between him and
   TR325.)  When I asked who Erdgogan trusts, two names were mentioned - Ali
   Babacan (Deputy PM) and Taner Yildiz (energy minister.)  Both sources were
   asking how the US is likely to react to this situation.  Would they try to
   back the military like the old days?  CHP is still very much divided. Both
   seemed to think the military won't be able to take advantage of the
   situation.

   On Syria - the conversation centered on how far Turkey is actually going
   to go.  TR325 explained that the Turkish plan is centered on civil war in
   Syria.  Officially, it's Turkey providing the main training,a rms and
   support to FSA. Unofficially, US and TUrkey are doing this together in
   deploying SOF for this mission.  Notice all the talk in the press now
   about civil war breaking out in Syria. This is the narrative Turkey and US
   want to build.  I pointed out that creating the conditions for civil war -
   actual neighborhood to neighborhood fighting - is still pretty difficult
   considering that the Alawite forces are still holding together, but he
   seemed to think that this can escalate within 2 months time. He also said
   without saying that they're working on making that happen. He acknowledges
   it'll be messy and it will take a lot of blood and time for a Sunni power
   to emerge in syria, but that this is the Turkish obligation.

   The Turkish plan to preempt the instability that would result from civil
   war conditions is to implement the buffer zone 5-40km into Syrian
   territory and set up refugee camps.  I asked what levers Iran and Syria
   have to get Turkey to back off in relation to PKK.  He said
   (half-jokingly) that Karilan is Turkey's man (ie. turkey can actually
   negotiate with him.)  But he said PKK third-in-command (still need to get
   this guy's name) answers to Syria and Iran. Turkey knows this very well
   and he says Syria and Iran are already making moves to threaten attacks
   via this faction.

   I'm left with a lot of questions --

   Given the instability that is likely to result within AKP over Erdogan's
   health, would Turkey really be making bold foreign policy moves, such as
   helping to create a civil war in Syria?

   Turkey appears very confident that Syria/Iran have the means to play the
   PKK card. Why risk that?

   Turkey knows they'll be dealing with a massive refugee crisis in Syria -
   why propel that situation?

   Some other points -

   TR325 believes AZ wiill be able to export 5-7bcm via ITGI for SDII. 
   Russia has its stake in Edison to keep a foothold in that route.  The rest
   he agrees is likely going to have to be shipped to Russia eventually since
   the Europeans aren't financing anything right now. He did say that SOCAR
   is flush with money right now and could actually put money down on these
   projects if they have the market demand and client base to do it.

   They were both asking me what is happening with Trinidad and Tobago. I
   told them I have no idea. They were asking because they are involved in a
   business deal to sell conventional subs to Trinidad and Tobago. They're
   assuming the US is preparing something for VZ.  They are also involved in
   similar submarine sales to Taiwan and Japan.
","2011-12-10 20:04:53",1,"2012-03-06 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5256329_-alpha-insight-turkey-syria-az-us-vz-russia-taiwan-erdogan-s.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5262440,"Re: ANALYSIS FOR EDIT - RUSSIA/GREECE/GERMANY/EUROZONE - Greece:
 Why	Privatization Matters?
","   When a change in phrasing is made, that change needs to be highlighted. It
   may seem innocent to change PASOK had been in power in Greece for 20 years
   since 1974. into PASOK had led the country for 20 years beginning in 1974,
   but it is not.

   On 6/9/11 11:44 AM, Ryan Bridges wrote:

     Title: Opportunities for Russia and China in Greek Privatization

      

     Teaser: Athens' privatization drive, while threatening Prime Minister
     George Papandreou's leadership of his party, is a chance for Russia and
     China to take over important Greek transportation and energy
     infrastructure.

      

     Summary: Greece's eurozone partners are demanding that Athens accelerate
     sales of public assets and allow an independent agency, likely to be
     heavily influenced by Germany, to lead the privatization drive. There is
     a risk that Greece's ruling PASOK party could rebel against Prime
     Minister George Papandreou and eurozone austerity measures. But the more
     significant long-term issue is that Russia and China could use the
     privatization to snatch up strategic Greek assets.

      

      

     Greece's privatization efforts have become central for the new
     approximately 65 billion to 70 billion euro ($94 billion to $101
     billion) bailout package being finalized by eurozone member states and
     expected to be approved by the June 20 eurozone finance ministers'
     meeting. As the chief condition of the new bailout plan, Greece's
     eurozone partners are demanding that Athens speed up its sale of
     publicly held assets and shift the responsibility of privatization from
     the government to an independent agency that would, sources tell
     STRATFOR, have considerable input from foreign governments. In other
     words, Greece needs to sell about 50 billion euros worth of public
     assets by 2015 and on terms that satisfy Germany and other eurozone
     countries, regardless of the preferences of the Greek state that owns
     the assets or the Greek public that depends on them for employment.

      

      

     Greek privatization is a divisive issue that is threatening Prime
     Minister George Papandreou's hold on his party. There is a danger that
     the ruling PASOK party could revolt against Papandreou and eurozone
     austerity measures, putting Europe's bailout efforts into question and
     sending the sovereign debt crisis spiraling toward Portugal and Spain.
     The long-term and geopolitical issue, however, is the effect that such
     wide-scale privatization will have on strategic Greek assets, such as
     ports and pipelines, which could find interested investors in Russia and
     China, giving these powers a back door into Europe's transportation and
     energy infrastructure. [Great summary]

      

      

     Pain of Privatization

      

      

     The new eurozone bailout plan has caused a political crisis in Greece.
     The planned privatization of state enterprises means further layoffs of
     public sector workers, and the Greek unemployment rate is already at
     16.2 percent, more than 3 percent higher than a year ago. Employees of
     Greek power utility PPC, telecommunication company OTE, and water
     utilities EYDAP and EYATH have called a 24-hour strike for June 9 to
     protest the privatization efforts, while the main private and public
     sector unions, GSEE and ADEDY, will organize a general strike in the
     country June 15.

      

      

     Privatization, under most conditions, is painful. Inefficiencies built
     into public companies due to political logic -- such as redundant
     employment, subsidized pricing of goods and services, and wage inflation
     -- are unraveled, to the consternation of a large segment of the
     population. Furthermore, management positions in publicly held utilities
     and businesses are often lucrative posts, which political leaders use to
     reward party loyalists, or are even directly funded from the revenue of
     the public companies. Thus, the workers facing unemployment and the
     citizens protesting higher prices for goods and services are not alone
     in resisting privatization; political elites, who are left without
     important sources of economic revenue and patronage, also oppose it.
     This explains why, historically, successful and thorough privatization
     drives require a political outsider in the country to take control and
     use privatization to evict established and entrenched elites. This is
     why most successful and thorough privatization drives usually occur when
     a political outsider takes control of a country and uses privatization
     to evict established and entrenched elites from power. [We mean
     political outsider as in opposition, not foreign power, right?]

      

      

     Papandreou and his PASOK are most definitely not political outsiders.
     Although it was out of power for five years before defeating the
     center-right Neu Demokratia in 2009, PASOK had led the country for 20
     years beginning in 1974. Therefore, the greatest danger in terms of
     dissent to privatization is not from the mounting protests and strikes
     on the streets of Athens and other Greek cities, which are largely
     apolitical and offer no real alternative to the ruling party, but from
     Papandreou's own party. 

      

     The events of the next few weeks will be crucial for Papandreou's
     ability to retain control of his party. Because PASOK's popularity has
     taken a dive, early elections would not benefit its members. Our
     tentative forecast is therefore that Papandreou will be able to use the
     prospect of being voted out of office to scare dissenting members of
     parliament into supporting the new austerity measures. This depends on a
     number of factors, including that street protests do not become violent
     or out of control, which we do not foresee happening.

     INSERT TABLE: Selected Greek Privatization Efforts

      

     Opportunities in Privatization

      

     A painful privatization drive for Greece, however, presents
     opportunities for others to gain assets at potentially below market
     value. German companies are taking interest in a number of Greek assets,
     which is certain to frustrate Greeks, who see the forced privatization
     drive as a loss of sovereignty and an insidious move by Berlin to
     acquire control of potentially lucrative companies on the cheap. On June
     6, as the new bailout agreement was being negotiated, Germany's Deutsche
     Telekom acquired a 10 percent stake in Hellenic Telecommunications (OTE)
     for around 400 million euros, giving German firms a 40 percent stake
     plus one share in OTE [I assume we mean various German companies and not
     the German government]. Athens is looking to sell another 6 percent of
     OTE to Deutsche Telekom, but the German telecommunication company has
     said it would invest further only if given full control over OTE's labor
     policies.

      

      

     Russian and Chinese companies also are looking to use Greek
     privatization for geopolitical gain. For China, Greece is an interesting
     strategic entry point into the Central and Eastern European emerging
     markets. China would use the Greek ports of Piraeus and Thessaloniki to
     bring its goods to the Balkans, former Soviet countries like Ukraine and
     Belarus, and Central European EU states like Hungary, Slovakia and
     Poland. Beijing's logic is that it could expand its trade in
     post-Communist Central and Eastern European countries where, considering
     the region's generally lower income, the price point for Chinese exports
     would be highly competitive. China Ocean Shipping Co. (COSCO) made an
     investment in Piraeus in June 2010, leasing two container terminals for
     35 years at a price of around $5 billion. COSCO's interest also was
     piqued when the Greek government announced plans to privatize its entire
     75 percent stake in the Piraeus port authority, and the Chinese company
     wants to expand its investment both there and in Thessaloniki. 

      

     Russia is interested in using Greece to block a key European alternative
     route for natural gas supplies. The European Union, which currently gets
     [insert figure] percent of its natural gas from Russia, is looking for
     alternatives to Russian-dominated natural gas transportation pipelines.
     At the forefront of the union's plans is the \"southern gas corridor,\"
     which is essentially an amalgamation of several different projects that
     would bring Azerbaijani and potentially Central Asian or Middle Eastern
     natural gas into Europe via Turkey. Greece is an important component of
     this plan since it rests on one route by which natural gas piped through
     Turkey would enter the European Union -- the other option would be to
     fork north through Bulgaria and Romania. From Greece, any proposed
     natural gas pipelines would have to make the short jump across the
     Strait of Otranto to Italy. [Even though it would be longer, would it be
     cheaper to go through Bulgaria/Romania since you don't have to build
     underwater?]

     INSERT: Map of Southern Corridor Options

      

     There are currently a number of proposed pipeline projects that would
     constitute the EU southern gas corridor, of which three are central. The
     Nabucco pipeline is supposed to take the northern route from Turkey to
     Austria via the Balkan EU member states. Two other pipelines would take
     the southerly route from Turkey into Greece -- the proposed
     Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) and the Interconnection
     Turkey-Greece-Italy (ITGI), of which the planned Poseidon offshore
     pipeline is the underwater part from Greece to Italy.

      

     The Greek government is directly involved in the ITGI project through
     its ownership of the Greek public natural gas company DEPA, which is
     collaborating with Italy's privately held natural gas company Edison.
     The key for Russia, specifically natural gas giant Gazprom, is blocking 
     [Changed because we say later that it wants to put Russian gas through
     the pipeline, not kill it] lies in this particular southern corridor
     project [Why not TAP too? Would the southern corridor fall apart if it
     lost one of the three?]. The offered proposed privatization of DEPA is
     therefore an interesting opportunity for the Kremlin. Gazprom has had
     its eyes on ITGI for years, negotiating with DEPA in 2010 to potentially
     gain an ownership stake in the project. The deal seems to have fallen
     through, with Gazprom now concentrating on the Greek plan to privatize
     DEPA -- as much as 32 percent may be up for sale. This would give Moscow
     a seat at the table when decisions are made about whose natural gas ITGI
     carries, turning ITGI from an alternative to Russian natural gas to an
     enabler of continued Gazprom dominance of Europe's natural gas market.

      

     The key question is whether Greece's eurozone neighbors will try to
     prevent China and Russia from gaining access to these geopolitically
     strategic assets. It is assumed that the new privatization agency,
     independent from Athens, would have major German influence since Berlin
     is contributing the most cash for the Greek bailouts. As such, would
     Berlin look to ensure that Athens' strategic assets are purchased by
     fellow eurozone member states and not by Russia and China? The answer is
     most likely no. Germany, an exporter of high-end, capital-intensive
     goods, does not consider China's low-cost goods export competition,
     which means there is no reason for Berlin to prevent Beijing's access to
     Eastern and Central European markets. Second, Germany has a budding
     political relationship with Russia, including a solid relationship
     between Germany's E.ON Ruhrgas and Gazprom. It therefore is unlikely
     that Berlin will do much to block Gazprom's designs in Greece either
     [With its plans to shut down all those nuclear power plants, Germany's
     big energy concern is probably making sure there's more natural gas
     flowing in, right? It wouldn't really care where it comes from so long
     as it comes]. Considering that Germany is expected to have the greatest
     influence in decisions made by the new privatization agency -- and that
     Berlin's interest is ultimately to get Athens to raise as much cash as
     possible -- we do not foresee Berlin standing in the way of Russia and
     China in Greece.

      

 --
 Marko Papic
 Senior Analyst
 STRATFOR
 + 1-512-744-4094 (O)
 + 1-512-905-3091 (C)
 221 W. 6th St, Ste. 400
 Austin, TX 78701 - USA
 www.stratfor.com
 @marko_papic
","2011-06-10 15:13:18",1,"2012-03-02 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5262440_re-analysis-for-edit-russia-greece-germany-eurozone-greece.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","","writers@stratfor.com,ryan.bridges@stratfor.com",""
5280688,"Re: Fwd: RE: Pls fwd to Fred
","   Do we trust everyone on the list enough to reveal the source's physical
   location?  I was going to remove it, just in case...

   On 9/14/11 9:19 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Go, we may want to find that house; note grid coordinates.  I would post
     in context to the threat. 

     On 9/14/2011 8:16 AM, Anya Alfano wrote:

       Okay to post?

       On 9/14/11 9:15 AM, Fred Burton wrote:

         Good skinny.  This is what is defined as a credible source.  Not
         some windbag Paki academic belching and passing gas. 

         -------- Original Message --------

         Subject: RE: Pls fwd to Fred                         
            Date: Wed, 14 Sep 2011 09:12:30 -0400             
            From: James F. Smith <jamie@scginternational.com> 
              To: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>           

         Completely.

         Last week of August I was at a house here (32DEG 52.552'N / 13DEG
         8.512'E) owned by a man last name Hakin (like the MOD Hakin but not
         the same man).

         After midnight we recv'd ph call from anonymous caller telling him
         to get ready for a vehicle to come by to pick him up and take him to
         a pos so he could pickup some money.

         We then called a contact at MOD and ran it by them, they knew of the
         ruse somehow and said it was a trap aimed at the real Hakin (MOD
         head) and that we should vacate asap.

         We grabbed weapons, go-bag and moved out of the house on foot down
         the streets (can't drive this area due to roadblocks at every
         corner) to a safe(r) house. I happened to be solo that night. I
         moved him to the top of the house (3rd deck), barricaded the door on
         ground and the access to the roof, then put him down and maintained
         overwatch of the street below from the roof til dawn.

         This happens frequently here. Definite threat to NTC and lower level
         brigade leadership as well.

          

         From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
         Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 9:06 AM
         To: James F. Smith
         Subject: Re: Pls fwd to Fred

          

         Credible in your eyes? 

         On 9/14/2011 8:02 AM, James F. Smith wrote:

         Rgr//thank you.

          

         From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
         Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2011 8:49 AM
         To: James F. Smith
         Subject: Re: Pls fwd to Fred

          

         Libyan source warns of possible assassination operations against NTC
         members

         Excerpt from report by Saudi-owned leading pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq
         al-Awsat website on 14 September

         [Report by Khalid Mahmud in Cairo: \"Libya: Revolutionaries'
         Disagreements Impede Search for Fugitive Al-Qadhafi\"]

         The efforts to arrest the fugitive Libyan Colonel Mu'ammar
         al-Qadhafi, who is still somewhere unknown inside Libyan
         territories, receded relatively yesterday as the revolutionaries and
         the Transitional National Council [NTC] became preoccupied with
         disagreements that escalated and surfaced for the first time with
         Islamic political groups that opened fire early at the NTC at an
         unexpected end of the honeymoon which did not last long between the
         two sides.

         While NTC Chairman Counsellor Mustafa Abd-al-Jalil was issuing from
         Martyrs Square in the Libyan capital Tripoli messages to assure the
         Western coalition backing the revolutionaries that he would not
         allow any extremist ideology, whether from the right or the left,
         Ali al-Salabi, the prominent leader in the Muslim Brotherhood [MB]
         group, came out with unprecedented violent and sharp criticisms of
         Dr Mahmud Jibril, chairman of the NTC's Executive Bureau, which
         reached the point of demanding his resignation.

         These developments prompted a high-level official in the NTC to warn
         of possible assassinations against some NTC members, particularly in
         view of the proliferation of weapons all over the country. This
         official, who asked to remain unnamed, said by telephone from
         Tripoli \"we fear that the political clash will lead to a military
         one. There are fears of assassination operations like that of martyr
         Major General Abd-al-Fattah Yunus\", the former commander of the
         revolutionaries forces who was assassinated in mysterious
         circumstances by gunmen believed to be Islamists in Benghazi at the
         end of July. [Passage omitted on Abd-al-Jalil's speech, Al-Salabi's
         statements]

         In view of this unexpected attack by Al-Salabi, sources close to
         Jibril disclosed to Al-Sharq al-Awsat that Jibril refused to give
         the MB more than one ministerial portfolio in the government he
         intends to form from about 20 ministers. The sources said the MB
         sought in the past to persuade Jibril to give it five ministerial
         portfolios, among them the awqaf, information, and interior
         ministries, but he refused from the premise that this would put the
         country within the framework of a quota government and not a
         government of technocrats that carries out its responsibilities
         during the transitional period of 18 months.

         Libyan activists and politicians told Al-Sharq al-Awsat yesterday
         that they called for a march that was supposed to be staged last
         night from outside Al-Mahari Hotel in Tripoli to denounce
         Al-Salabi's statements as part of similar demonstrations aimed at
         stressing that there is a public opinion against such views.

         A NTC official told Al-Sharq al-Awsat the NTC is being subjected to
         what he called \"a campaign of distortion\" by some political trends
         which believe it threatens their interests and endeavours to occupy
         leading posts in the next government. The official, who asked to
         remain unnamed, added \"this is an overt and public blackmail
         campaign. We will not allow the NTC and its government to be dragged
         to these dirty tricks. We still have before us momentous and very
         grave tasks and what is happening is mere political drivel whose
         time has not yet come.\"

         Al-Sharq al-Awsat has learned that Dr Jibril is coming under
         political pressures from the armed groups and revolutionaries to
         give them ministerial posts too. An official connected to the
         upcoming government told this newspaper: \"Yes, he (Jibril) is coming
         under pressures but refuses to yield to them. His task as he sees it
         is to form a national government based on the principle of
         competence and professionalism before any other considerations.\"

         But a NTC member said the formation of the new government might not
         be easy because it would not have everybody's support and pointed
         out that all the political forces are now aspiring to play a public
         political role and obtain the price for their participation in or
         backing for the Libyan people's uprising against Al-Qadhafi.

         Amidst these political disagreements which prove that the honeymoon
         between the Islamists and NTC has ended prematurely, the efforts to
         locate the whereabouts of the fugitive Col. Al-Qadhafi, his sons,
         and his senior military and security aides have slowed down at a
         time when the revolutionaries are fighting fierce battles with the
         colonel's remnant forces to retake his last strongholds in Sirte and
         Bani Walid.

         A security official in the special unit hunting Al-Qadhafi said the
         efforts exerted to pinpoint his whereabouts since his escape from
         Tripoli on 21 August were mostly unsuccessful. Speaking by telephone
         from Tripoli on condition of remaining anonymous, the official added
         \"we have conflicting information. No one has anything definite about
         his (Al-Qadhafi's) hideout. We are still hoping to reach him as
         quickly as possible.\" He pointed out that the reason for the delay
         in forming the new government under Dr Jibril has to do with
         Al-Qadhafi's arrest or killing, adding \"we want the announcement of
         the government to be done with the announcement with the regime's
         official and final downfall and this cannot be done if we do not
         arrest Al-Qadhafi or kill him if he refused to surrender.\"

         In the field, the revolutionaries appeared yesterday to be on the
         verge of attacking the city of Bani Walid where forces loyal to
         Al-Qadhafi are entrenched amidst the large-scale exodus of the
         city's citizens who described the living conditions inside it as
         miserable because of the communications and electricity stoppages.
         The revolutionaries stopped their advance to resolve the city's fate
         for some time so as to enable these citizens to escape somewhere far
         from the fighting while Al-Qadhafi's forces reinforced their
         military positions inside the city and made rooftops the pads for
         missile launchers, according to remarks by military sources to the
         revolutionaries' \"Libya al-Ahrar\" channel.

         Violent clashes erupted between the revolutionaries and the
         regiments in the streets of Sirte, Al-Qadhafi's birthplace, as
         reports circulated that his son Al-Mu'tasim, who is the national
         security adviser, is in the city. The revolutionaries succeeded in
         forcing Al-Qadhafi's forces to retreat towards Harawah which is
         situated 70 km east of Sirte before advancing for 50 km from the
         west to announce also that they had reached the outskirts of Brak
         al-Shati which is only 70 km from Sabha.

         Source: Al-Sharq al-Awsat website, London, in Arabic 14 Sep 11

         BBC Mon ME1 MEPol vs

         On 9/12/2011 1:51 PM, James F. Smith wrote:

 No, mainly tac ground training and psd for key figures.

  

 Sent from my iPhone

  

 On Sep 12, 2011, at 14:28, \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com<mailto:burton@stratfor.com>> wrote:

  

 Tactical and intel support too?

  

 On 9/12/2011 10:49 AM, James F. Smith wrote:

  

 Certainly are. They need it. At the request of a usg committee and the rebs. Been there since no-fly.

 JS

 Sent by mobile device

  

 ________________________________

 From: Fred Burton <<mailto:burton@stratfor.com>burton@stratfor.com<mailto:burton@stratfor.com>>

 To: James F. Smith

 Sent: Mon Sep 12 11:21:44 2011

 Subject: Re: Fwd: Fwd: Pls fwd to Fred

 Interesting.  You guys lending the opposition a hand?  I would hope so.

  

 On 9/12/2011 9:59 AM, James F. Smith wrote:

  

 I just got back and am heading back either this week or next. Still working logs on travel.

 JS

 Sent by mobile device

  

 ________________________________

 From: Fred Burton <<mailto:burton@stratfor.com>burton@stratfor.com<mailto:burton@stratfor.com>>

 To: James F. Smith

 Sent: Mon Sep 12 10:52:34 2011

 Subject: Fwd: Fwd: Pls fwd to Fred

 Hello James,   Very interesting and thorough report.   Are you heading into Libya?   Thanks, Fred

  

 ---

  

 Fred,

  

 I tried sending this via Yahoo, but it was kicked back by your servers.

 Let me know if you get this. I'm going back to the AO next week.

 Any RFI's just let me know.

 Yes, we have a stratfor acct under this email address.

  

 James Smith

 SCG, LLC

 www.scginternational.com<http://www.scginternational.com/>

 jamie@scginternational.com<mailto:jamie@scginternational.com>

 +1 757 469 9512 m

 +1 757 390 3356 o

 +1 703 995 4550 f

 1369 Laskin Road, Suite 5

 Virginia Beach, Virginia 23451, USA

  

 U.S. Veteran Owned & Operated

 The information in this communication and any attachments herein are confidential and may be legally privileged. It is intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom it is addressed and others authorized to receive it. This email may also contain information in reference to certain commodities that are not able to be exported without a valid license issued by the U.S. Department of State - Directorate of Defense Trade Controls, as prescribed in the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), Title 22, Code of Federal Regulation, Parts 120-130. If you are not the intended recipient you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or taking action in reliance of the contents of this information is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful.

  
","2011-09-14 15:23:53",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5280688_re-fwd-re-pls-fwd-to-fred-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5282628,"Re: Public Policy Question for Coca-Cola
","   Interesting, thanks Fred.

   Fred Burton wrote:

     The FBI has a classified investigation on PETA operatives. I'll see what
     I can uncover.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"scott stewart\"
     Date: Tue, 2 Jun 2009 11:01:30 -0400
     To: 'bart mongoven'<bart.mongoven@stratfor.com>
     Subject: RE: Public Policy Question for Coca-Cola
     Yeah, I'm not sure how that works now either.  Bart, is this something
     you guys can still help with?
      
      
      
      
      

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Tuesday, June 02, 2009 10:56 AM
     To: Fred Burton; scott stewart
     Subject: Public Policy Question for Coca-Cola
     Coca-Cola just sent me a long list of questions regarding PETA/Animal
     Activism and the upcoming Olympics in Vancouver--I've pasted the
     questions below.  I'm not entirely clear on how much we can task the
     public policy group at this point--is there any guidance you can give me
     on that front?  Coke has asked for a short teleconference with one of
     our analysts to discuss this issue--is that something I could ask Kathy,
     Bart or Joe to do, or would that be off the table at this point?  Stick,
     are these questions something that you have a handle on, if we aren't
     able to get info from the policy folks? 

     Any thoughts or guidance would be helpful. Thanks, Anya

     Questions---
     -- How many PETA supporters are there in Canada?
     -- How many of these are inclined toward activism?
     -- To what extent will US-based PETA supporters travel to Canada to
     support activism?
     -- What is PETA's methodology for planning and executing activism?
      (Understanding this better would certainly help us to recognize
     indicators should they appear.)
     -- To what extent is PETA in Canada linked to PETA in the US or
     elsewhere?
     -- To what extent are the actions of PETA in one country controlled by
     an oversight board/governing body?
     -- To what extent could non-PETA hangers-on (such as anarchists or ALF
     supporters) get involved in any protest activity?
","2009-06-02 17:21:18",1,"2012-02-27 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5282628_re-public-policy-question-for-coca-cola-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,bart.mongoven@stratfor.com,burtonfb@att.blackberry.net",""
5284848,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-MEXICO-Anonymous kidnapping-US711
","   We discussed the Anonymous case with our hacker buddies yesterday.  They
   were surprised that the FBI hasn't taken advantage of this situation to
   generate chaos within the cartel community by using the Anonymous moniker
   to start to publish cartel leadership info. 

   On 11/10/11 1:27 PM, Marc Lanthemann wrote:

     Source Code: US711
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR Security source
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: US Law enforcement Agent with Border Liaison
     responsibilities
     SOURCE  RELIABILITY: A
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: D (source isn't able to confirm either way but this is
     his take)
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

     I have just one question about this anonymous hacker being kidnapped
     article down below.  If the hacker was anonymous then how could he/she
     be kidnapped as no one would know who he/she was, because he/she was
     anonymous.  If he/she was kidnapped then he/she was not anonymous,
     because someone knew who he/she was to kidnap him/her in the first
     place.  It is anonymous who is announcing the release of this kidnapped
     victim and not the Zetas.  I do not think the Zetas would release a
     kidnapping victim anyway not under such threats.  If they did they
     already know who anonymous is as I am certain they would have
     interrogated the anonymous victim before letting him/her go.  This is
     why I do not even believe there was a kidnapping in the first place.  If
     the Zetas can find out who anonymous is so can the Mexican and U.S.
     Governments.  The Zetas are not that good above what the U.S. and
     Mexican Governments can do.  Yep I think the kidnapping was a hoax.

     Mexican Drug Cartel Frees Kidnapped Anonymous Hacker
     http://img.ibtimes.com/www/data/images/middle/2011/10/05/169157-anonymous.jpg
     November 10, 2011 10:55 AM EST

     Anonymous Takes On Mexican Drug Cartel After Kidnapping of Hacker

     The unidentified hacker, who was kidnapped by the Zetas in the eastern
     Mexican port of Veracruz, was freed before the Nov. 5 deadline set by
     Anonymous, the Mexican TV station Televisa reported Wednesday. An
     Anonymous member using the nickname @anohispano announced the release of
     the kidnapped hacker on Twitter.

     Mexican authorities, who have no verification of the kidnapping, had no
     comment.

     The Anonymous in Mexico announced on a YouTube video last month its
     demand that Zetas release the kidnapped member warning that failing to
     do so will force hackers to reveal online the names of \"taxi drivers,
     journalists and police officers\" serving the violent drug trafficking
     group known for displaying the bodies of its executed victims in public.

     In the \"Anonymous Veracruz\" video, which the U.S. security consultancy
     Stratfor released, according to Courier Mail, a hacker wearing the mask
     of Guy Fawkes, spoke in Spanish threatening retaliation against the
     Zetas if the kidnapped hacker is not released.

     Stratfor warned on Oct. 28 that \"loss of life will be a certain
     consequence if Anonymous releases the identities of individuals
     cooperating with cartels,\" according to the blog \"eats shoots n' leaves
     by Richard Brenneman citing a report from The Guardians.

     Stratfor said the drug trafficking gang had hired security experts to
     track down the hackers and kidnap, hurt or kill them.

     The Guardians report also said that some Anonymous members disagree with
     the plan to expose collaborators of the Zetas while others claim that
     the kidnapping was a hoax.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 STRATFOR
 w: 512-744-4324
 c: 512-422-9335
 richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com
","2011-11-11 13:59:34",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5284848_re-alpha-insight-mexico-anonymous-kidnapping-us711-.html","richmond@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5287911,"Re: Fw: CIA spies outed in Lebanon
","   Some of this feels like disinfo.  If the CIA lost a few people in Beirut,
   it would be reasonable for them to send a few \"current and former US
   Officials\" to the AP to \"leak\" a story that the all US coverage of Hez has
   been \"wiped out\" -- best way to stop the search for more informants. 

   On 11/21/11 10:03 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Goldman, Adam\" <agoldman@ap.org>
     Date: Mon, 21 Nov 2011 08:56:44 -0600 (CST)
     To: Fred Burton<burton@stratfor.com>
     Subject: RE: CIA spies outed in Lebanon

     Thanks! Been working on this for a while. It's bad. CIA's Hezbollah
     coverage has been wiped out.

      

     From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Monday, November 21, 2011 8:05 AM
     To: Goldman, Adam
     Subject: Fwd: CIA spies outed in Lebanon

      

     Great work Adam! 

     AP Exclusive: Spies Outed, CIA Suffers In Lebanon

     http://www.salon.com/2011/11/21/ap_exclusive_spies_outed_cia_suffers_in_lebanon_2/

     Monday, Nov 21, 2011 10:17 AM 11:15:26 GMT+0200

     By Adam Goldman and Matt Apuzzo, Associated Press

     WASHINGTON (AP) - The CIA's operations in Lebanon have been badly
     damaged after Hezbollah identified and captured a number of U.S. spies
     recently, current and former U.S. officials told The Associated Press.
     The intelligence debacle is particularly troubling because the CIA saw
     it coming.

     Hezbollah's longtime leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, boasted on
     television in June that he had rooted out at least two CIA spies who had
     infiltrated the ranks of Hezbollah, which the U.S. considers a terrorist
     group closely allied with Iran. Though the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon
     officially denied the accusation, current and former officials concede
     that it happened and the damage has spread even further.

     In recent months, CIA officials have secretly been scrambling to protect
     their remaining spies - foreign assets or agents working for the agency
     - before Hezbollah can find them.

     To be sure, some deaths are to be expected in shadowy spy wars. It's an
     extremely risky business and people get killed. But the damage to the
     agency's spy network in Lebanon has been greater than usual, several
     former and current U.S. officials said, speaking on condition of
     anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about
     security matters.

     The Lebanon crisis is the latest mishap involving CIA
     counterintelligence, the undermining or manipulating of the enemy's
     ability to gather information. Former CIA officials have said that
     once-essential skill has been eroded as the agency shifted from
     outmaneuvering rival spy agencies to fighting terrorists. In the rush
     for immediate results, former officers say, tradecraft has suffered.

     The most recent high-profile example was the suicide bomber who posed as
     an informant and killed seven CIA employees and wounded six others in
     Khost, Afghanistan in December 2009.

     Last year, then-CIA director Leon Panetta said the agency had to
     maintain \"a greater awareness of counterintelligence.\" But eight months
     later, Nasrallah let the world know he had bested the CIA, demonstrating
     that the agency still struggles with this critical aspect of spying and
     sending a message to those who would betray Hezbollah.

     The CIA was well aware the spies were vulnerable in Lebanon. CIA
     officials were warned, including the chief of the unit that supervises
     Hezbollah operations from CIA headquarters in Langley, Va., and the head
     of counterintelligence. It remains unclear whether anyone has been or
     will be held accountable in the wake of this counterintelligence
     disaster or whether the incident will affect the CIA's ability to
     recruit assets in Lebanon.

     In response to AP's questions about what happened in Lebanon, a U.S.
     official said Hezbollah is recognized as a complicated enemy responsible
     for killing more Americans than any other terrorist group before
     September 2001. The agency does not underestimate the organization, the
     official said.

     The CIA's toughest adversaries, like Hezbollah and Iran, have for years
     been improving their ability to hunt spies, relying on patience and
     guile to exploit counterintelligence holes.

     In 2007, for instance, when Ali-Reza Asgari, a brigadier general in the
     Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of Iran, disappeared in Turkey, it
     was assumed that he was either killed or defected. In response, the
     Iranian government began a painstaking review of foreign travel by its
     citizens, particularly to places like Turkey where Iranians don't need a
     visa and could meet with foreign intelligence services.

     It didn't take long, a Western intelligence official told the AP, before
     the U.S., Britain and Israel began losing contact with some of their
     Iranian spies.

     The State Department last year described Hezbollah as \"the most
     technically capable terrorist group in the world,\" and the Defense
     Department estimates it receives between $100 million and $200 million
     per year in funding from Iran.

     Backed by Iran, Hezbollah has built a professional counterintelligence
     apparatus that Nasrallah - whom the U.S. government designated an
     international terrorist a decade ago - proudly describes as the \"spy
     combat unit.\" U.S. intelligence officials believe the unit, which is
     considered formidable and ruthless, went operational in about 2004.

     Using the latest commercial software, Nasrallah's spy-hunters unit began
     methodically searching for spies in Hezbollah's midst. To find them,
     U.S. officials said, Hezbollah examined cellphone data looking for
     anomalies. The analysis identified cellphones that, for instance, were
     used rarely or always from specific locations and only for a short
     period of time. Then it came down to old-fashioned, shoe-leather
     detective work: Who in that area had information that might be worth
     selling to the enemy?

     The effort took years but eventually Hezbollah, and later the Lebanese
     government, began making arrests. By one estimate, 100 Israeli assets
     were apprehended as the news made headlines across the region in 2009.
     Some of those suspected Israeli spies worked for telecommunications
     companies and served in the military.

     Back at CIA headquarters, the arrests alarmed senior officials. The
     agency prepared a study on its own vulnerabilities, U.S. officials said,
     and the results proved to be prescient.

     The analysis concluded that the CIA was susceptible to the same analysis
     that had compromised the Israelis, the officials said.

     CIA managers were instructed to be extra careful about handling sources
     in Lebanon. A U.S. official said recommendations were issued to counter
     the potential problem.

     But it's unclear what preventive measures were taken by the Hezbollah
     unit chief or the officer in charge of the Beirut station. Former
     officials say the Hezbollah unit chief is no stranger to the necessity
     of counterintelligence and knew the risks. The unit chief has worked
     overseas in hostile environments like Afghanistan and played an
     important role in the capture of a top terrorist while stationed in the
     Persian Gulf region after the attacks of 9/11.

     \"We've lost a lot of people in Beirut over the years, so everyone should
     know the drill,\" said a former Middle East case officer familiar with
     the situation.

     But whatever actions the CIA took, they were not enough. Like the
     Israelis, bad tradecraft doomed these CIA assets and the agency
     ultimately failed to protect them, an official said. In some instances,
     CIA officers fell into predictable patterns when meeting their sources,
     the official said.

     This allowed Hezbollah to identify assets and case officers and unravel
     at least part of the CIA's spy network in Lebanon. There was also a
     reluctance to share cases and some files were put in \"restricted
     handling.\" The designation severely limits the number of people who know
     the identity of the source but also reduces the number of experts who
     could spot problems that might lead to their discovery, officials said.

     Nasrallah's televised announcement in June was followed by
     finger-pointing among departments inside the CIA as the spy agency tried
     figure out what went wrong and contain the damage.

     The fate of these CIA assets is unknown. Hezbollah treats spies
     differently, said Matthew Levitt, a counterterrorism and intelligence
     expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Studies who's writing a
     book about the terrorist organization

     \"It all depends on who these guys were and what they have to say,\"
     Levitt said. \"Hezbollah has disappeared people before. Others they have
     kept around.\"

     Who's responsible for the mess in Lebanon? It's not clear. The chief of
     Hezbollah operations at CIA headquarters continues to run the unit that
     also focuses on Iranians and Palestinians. The CIA's top
     counterintelligence officer, who was one of the most senior women in the
     clandestine service, recently retired after approximately five years in
     the job. She is credited with some important cases, including the recent
     arrests of Russian spies who had been living in the U.S. for years.

     Officials said the woman was succeeded by a more experienced operations
     officer. That officer has held important posts in Moscow, Southeast
     Asia, Europe and the Balkans, important frontlines of the agency's spy
     wars with foreign intelligence services and terrorist organizations.

     The information contained in this communication is intended for the use
     of the designated recipients named above. If the reader of this
     communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified
     that you have received this communication in error, and that any review,
     dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is strictly
     prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please
     notify The Associated Press immediately by telephone at +1-212-621-1898
     and delete this email. Thank you.
     [IP_US_DISC]msk dccc60c6d2c3a6438f0cf467d9a4938

 --
 Anya Alfano
 Briefer
 STRATFOR
 T: 1.415.404.7344 | M: 221.77.816.4937
 www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-11-21 16:10:50",1,"2012-02-29 02:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5287911_re-fw-cia-spies-outed-in-lebanon-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,alfano@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5288871,"Fwd: [Analytical & Intelligence Comments] RE: Taking Stock of WikiLeaks
","   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: [Analytical & Intelligence Comments] RE: Taking Stock of         
             WikiLeaks                                                        
       Date: Wed, 15 Dec 2010 10:30:13 -0600 (CST)                            
       From: jackk@chicagobancorp.com                                         
   Reply-To: Responses List <responses@stratfor.com>, Analyst List            
             <analysts@stratfor.com>                                          
         To: responses@stratfor.com                                           

 Jack Kinsey sent a message using the contact form at 
 https://www.stratfor.com/contact.

 I recently read a NYTimes article which pointed out that many Afghan 
 informants were put at risk as they were named in the documents.  Here is a 
 quote from that article
 \"Steve Coll, an expert on the region and a former senior editor of The 
 Washington Post, said in a New Yorker podcast on Thursday, \"my reading of 
 the disclosure of these informants in the context of Taliban-menaced southern 
 Afghanistan is that people named in those documents have a reasonable belief 
 that they are going to get killed, or - actually the way it works with the 
 Taliban is, if they can't find you, they'll take your brother 
 instead.\"\"

 This doesn't quite square with your analysis to me.  Would greatly appreciate 
 your comments.

 However I always enjoy and appreciate your articles and they are always well 
 thought out and thought provoking.






 Source: 
 http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20101213-taking-stock-wikileaks?utm_source=GWeekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=101214&utm_content=readmore&elq=61bd8106a2624b82ba536dba642ca476
","2010-12-15 17:36:59",1,"2012-03-01 23:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5288871_fwd-analytical-and-intelligence-comments-re-taking-stock-of.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","fred.burton@stratfor.com",""
5293788,"Re: syrian opposition
","   Ashley has been tracking this so I'll see if she has a list.

   On 12/13/11 2:35 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

     Source is meeting w/specific people described as key leaders. 

     On 12/13/2011 2:30 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

       We provided an overview in an analysis below. Multiple actors that
       make up the opposition.

       http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-syrian-opposition-perception-and-reality

  Makeup of the Opposition

       There are factions of the opposition that operate both inside Syria
       and outside. The external opposition is highly fractured, composed of
       people who cannot account authoritatively for the reality on the
       ground.

       The protests on the ground consist primarily of young and middle-aged
       men, though women and children are also present at times. The largest
       protests materialize after Friday prayers, when participants
       congregate on the streets outside mosques. That is not to say protests
       are relegated solely to Fridays; a number of demonstrations have been
       held on other days of the week but on a smaller scale. These protests
       also consist of men, women and children of all ages.

       But the opposition is ideologically diverse. A key element of what is
       considered Syria's traditional opposition - groups that have long been
       opposed to the regime - is the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), which
       the regime has demonized throughout the unrest. In 1976, the Syrian MB
       began an armed insurgency against the Alawite regime, led at the time
       by al Assad's father, Hafez. By 1982 the group was crushed in the
       notorious Hama massacre that allegedly killed some 30,000 civilians.
       The MB was driven underground, and dissenters in other Sunni majority
       cities, including Jisr al-Shughour, were quickly stamped out.

       Today, the Syrian MB remains a key participant in the opposition
       movement, but its capabilities inside Syria are weak. Syrian MB leader
       Ali Bayanouni resides in exile in London, and the Syrian MB outside
       Syria has become increasingly involved in the external opposition
       movement, participating in conferences such as the NCS conference in
       Istanbul in late August.

       However, the Syrian MB is unable to maintain much influence in Syria
       due to a limited presence inside the country, and it would take a
       concerted effort on the part of the Islamist group to earn the trust
       and fellowship of other Syrians. Since the banning of the Syrian MB in
       1980, al Assad's regime has been quick to blame the organization for
       militant attacks as a means of instilling fear of the MB among Syrian
       citizens. Christians, Alawites, and even other Muslims are wary of a
       conservative Sunni group gaining political influence in the regime.

       Opposition has also traditionally been found in Syria's mostly Kurdish
       northeast due to the Kurds' long-standing grievances against the
       regime, which has denied the group basic rights and citizenship. The
       Kurds have taken part in conferences led by the external opposition,
       such as the NCS meeting in Istanbul. Protests have meanwhile occurred
       in Kurdish majority cities such as Darbasiyah, Amuda and Qamishli, but
       they have not reached the scale of unrest as those in
       Sunni-concentrated areas. The Kurds and Sunnis may share the desire
       for regime change, but once the goal of regime change is achieved,
       whoever is in power, aside from the Kurds, will seek to contain
       Kurdish separatism. There already have been indications that Kurdish
       representatives among Syria's protest movement are being excluded from
       the process of drafting demands.

       The Syrian MB and the Kurds are two of several groups that have tried
       to coalesce, without much success, into a more substantial opposition
       force inside Syria in recent years. These groups took advantage of the
       Syrian regime's weakened position following the withdrawal from
       Lebanon in the spring of 2005 by drafting and signing the Damascus
       Declaration in October of the same year. Written by Syrian dissident
       Michel Kilo, the declaration was a statement of unity calling for
       political reforms. Declaration signatories include the Kurdish
       Democratic Alliance in Syria and the Kurdish Democratic Front in
       Syria. The Syrian MB was originally part of the Damascus Declaration,
       but internal disagreements led the MB to distance itself from this
       opposition movement in 2009. Disunity among the opposition remains to
       this day.

       Despite the disconnect between the external and internal opposition
       forces, some progress is being made to bridge the gap. Of the various
       councils formed by opposition members outside Syria, the NCS has
       recently emerged as the only council that has received the support of
       the Local Coordinating Committees (LLC), a group that claims to unite
       roughly 120 smaller coordinating committees across Syria. The NCS was
       selected by a diverse committee of independents, leftists, liberals
       and Kurds and claims that roughly half of its members, which include
       grassroots activists and traditional opposition supporters, are based
       inside Syria.

       In the past, the LLC and many other internal Syrian opposition groups,
       fearing competition, have been quick to denounce the formation of
       these external councils. Although many logistical constraints of
       uniting the external and internal opposition persist, the fact that
       the LLC has pledged support for the NCS and called upon the Damascus
       Declaration parties and Kurdish leadership to do so mean this should
       be watched as a potential sign of the opposition gaining coherence.

        
       On 12/13/11 2:20 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 do we know who the opposition is?  any names of potential leaders?
","2011-12-13 21:36:50",1,"2012-03-19 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5293788_re-syrian-opposition-.html","zucha@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,anya.alfano@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5299649,"Re: FW: Insight - Iran Nukes
","   Any idea what they're waiting for? 

   Fred Burton wrote:

     The Jews are crazier than the Iranians. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Friday, December 11, 2009 4:09 PM
     To: Fred Burton
     Cc: 'korena zucha'
     Subject: Re: FW: Insight - Iran Nukes
     Always knew you were Fred.  :) 

     Any idea when they're going to hit?  Will they ruin Christmas?

     Fred Burton wrote:

       I've never asked him. He thinks I'm CIA, which I may be. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Friday, December 11, 2009 4:07 PM
       To: Fred Burton
       Cc: 'korena zucha'
       Subject: Re: FW: Insight - Iran Nukes
       Does he respect gf?  Serious question.

       Fred Burton wrote:

         my source is bb (eyes only) 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Korena Zucha [mailto:zucha@stratfor.com]
         Sent: Friday, December 11, 2009 2:46 PM
         To: secure@stratfor.com
         Cc: Fred Burton
         Subject: Insight - Iran Nukes
         From Fred-

         According to an Israeli source, Iran has two nukes on missiles ready
         to go. 

         The Iranians are going out of their way to spread disinformation on
         their capabilities.  They want the community to think they are not
         anywhere near HEU. 

         Its a head fake. 

         White House is doing everything possible to block Israels next
         steps.

         Israel will go it alone.

         Israeli subs are off Iran's coast
","2009-12-11 23:18:38",1,"2012-03-27 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5299649_re-fw-insight-iran-nukes-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5300353,"Family
","Getting too complicated for SMS. 

I found one noble family named Anderson in the 1800s in southern
England.  I believe the line died out sometime about 100 years ago, but
i haven't been able to prove it--I haven't found family records for two
children (possible infant deaths?).  I haven't found anyone alive with
his surname with any current right of nobility.    
","2009-12-28 20:50:56",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5300353_family-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
5300650,"Bio
","   This is from 2006

   Ministry snapshot

   Rev. Richard W. Goodrich is District Superintendent of the Tyler District
   of the Texas Annual Conference.  He assumed this position in June of 2004,
   coming from Moody Memorial First in Galveston, Texas. 
   Rev. Goodrich has been a member of the Texas Annual Conference since 1982,
   and has held a number of pastoral assignments in Houston, Longview,
   Nederland, and Seabrook.
   Born in Lake Charles, Louisiana, he has lived all over the United States
   and in Germany. 
   He holds a Master of Theology degree, Summa Cum Laude, from Perkins School
   of Theology at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.  He has taken
   postgraduate work in New Testament Studies and Biomedical Ethics at Rice
   University in Houston where he taught for four years and has taught
   Biblical Studies for 17 years in the Course of Study Program at Perkins
   School of Theology.
   Rev. Goodrich has been actively involved in mission work for the last 20
   years, having worked in Haiti, Costa Rica, Belize, and Russia as well as
   in the United States in Alaska, Oklahoma, Texas, and Kentucky.  He has
   been working since 1994 in Tomsk, Siberia, Russia, where he has helped
   build new orphanage facilities, helped start a United Methodist Church,
   spoken at the universities, and worked with the medical community.
    He and his wife, Christine, who is an elementary school teacher, have
   been married for 33 years.  They have two daughters and one son, and one
   grandchild. 
   Meredith Miles, a graduate of the University of Texas, is married to
   Darren Miles, a CPA with Anadarko Petroleum. Lauren is a graduate student
   at the University of Texas. Carter is a sophomore at Texas A&M in College
   Station majoring in construction science.  Meredith and Darren have been
   ble
","2009-12-29 17:16:02",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5300650_bio-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
5300997,"Re:
","   No, the \"real\" Bryan spells his name with a \"Y\".  ( But, I just noticed I
   spelled it incorrectly in the other email thread)

   On 1/7/2010 2:04 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     Did she spell Brian's first name wrong?
      
      

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Thursday, January 07, 2010 12:41 PM
     To: Fred Burton; 'scott stewart'; 'korena zucha'
     Subject:

     -------- Original Message --------

          Subject: FW: Lauren's Information                                   
             Date: Mon, 26 Oct 2009 10:42:50 -0500                            
             From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>                          
     Organization: Stratfor Inc.                                              
               To: <korena.zucha@stratfor.com>, \"'Anya Alfano'\"               
                   <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>, \"'scott stewart'\"              
                   <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>                               

     FYI

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Monday, October 26, 2009 10:18 AM
     To: Fred Burton
     Subject: Re: Lauren's Information
     no, we don't use house phones.
     Do we need to set one up.... bc that would be easy.

     Fred Burton wrote:

       Are there any phone numbers listed for each residence? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Monday, October 26, 2009 10:16 AM
       To: Fred Burton
       Subject: Lauren's Information
       Address under Lauren Goodrich
        
       3500 N Capital of Texas Hwy #136
       Austin, Texas 78746
        
        
       Address under L. Andrew Anderson
        
       101 Lakeway Drive #204
       Austin, Texas 78734
        
        
       My Phone is - 281-460-9382
       Andrew's Phone (under a false name of Bryan Baxter) - 512-507-6544
       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     STRATFOR
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
","2010-01-07 20:08:38",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5300997_re-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5301273,"Re: Mooney
","Yes, he had told us about the BBaxter39@gmail.com address.  We didn't
find any other information associated with the account.


On 1/7/2010 3:25 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
> Mooney is going to walk back the cat on the email and phones again, in
> an effort to smoke out any new data.  He recalled a Baxter gmail acct in
> his first sweep, but zero email back to her.
>   
","2010-01-07 21:28:42",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5301273_re-mooney-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5301400,"List
","People affiliated with the foundation
http://www.peacefond.ru/en/structure-of-fund/
","2010-01-08 18:50:43",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5301400_list-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com",""
5301419,"Re: XXX
","GF said maybe her dad purchased an insurance policy for her.  I said
maybe, but most protestant ministers don't have enough cash to buy
normal health insurance, let alone high value life insurance for their
kids, but more to the point, are we sure her stuff isn't fake. 

She's lied about everything else, it's logical she's lying about the
jewelry and furs being real too. 

On 1/8/2010 5:25 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
> Off PGP, whats the question?   
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com] 
> Sent: Friday, January 08, 2010 3:50 PM
> To: Fred Burton
> Subject: Fwd: Re: XXX
>
> Last message just asked if we're sure her stuff isn't fake.  Everything else
> has been a lie--why assume the stuff is real? 
>
>   
","2010-01-08 23:28:42",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5301419_re-xxx-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
5301871,"Re: [Fwd: Re: Xxx]
","I don't see what LG could say without discrediting herself in the
process.  \"They hired me, and I'm a complete psycho and I gave you bad
information\"....
","2010-01-20 21:24:25",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5301871_re-fwd-re-xxx-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,alfano@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,zucha@stratfor.com",""
5303134,"Re: [Fwd: [Whips] My time is up... doc ordered back off comp]
","   She's been telling everyone that she's been in the hospital this week,
   where they put her on a ventilator for awhile until her fever broke, etc. 

   She's currently sending emails from the Austin residential Road Runner
   internet connection that we believe is her home. 

   On 2/3/2010 6:19 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

     What does she mean by \"doc ordered back off comp\"? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Korena Zucha [mailto:zucha@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Wednesday, February 03, 2010 4:29 PM
     To: Fred Burton; scott stewart; 'Alfano Anya'
     Subject: [Fwd: [Whips] My time is up... doc ordered back off comp]

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: [Whips] My time is up... doc ordered back off comp             
         Date: Wed, 03 Feb 2010 14:26:10 -0600                                
         From: Lauren Goodrich <goodrich@stratfor.com>                        
     Reply-To: Whips List <whips@stratfor.com>                                
           To: EurAsia AOR <eurasia@stratfor.com>, Whips List                 
               <whips@stratfor.com>                                           

     I'll try to get back on tomorrow.
     Thanks everyone for your help!
     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
     --
     Korena Zucha
     Briefer
     STRATFOR
     Office: 512-744-4082
     Fax: 512-744-4334
     Zucha@stratfor.com
","2010-02-04 00:25:05",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5303134_re-fwd-whips-my-time-is-up-doc-ordered-back-off-comp-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,alfano@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,zucha@stratfor.com",""
5303426,"Re: more lies
","I'll put together that stuff also. 

I was trying to come up with criteria for what is work-related--I'm
having issues saying that the lies about the Scotland and Kent visits
were work related.  Should they be included? 

On 2/10/2010 7:35 AM, scott stewart wrote:
> I think we should definitely include the stuff where she mischaracterizes
> Stratfor and her work for us to others. Afghanistan travel, burkah,
> bulletproof vest, saving Nate's life etc.  We could do a separate category
> for that.  
>
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
> Sent: Tuesday, February 09, 2010 11:45 PM
> To: Scott Stewart
> Cc: Anya Alfano; 'korena zucha'
> Subject: Re: more lies
>
> Are lies about her work locations work related or considered part of her
> fantasy? 
>
> Just not sure which is what.
>
>
>   
","2010-02-10 14:54:49",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5303426_re-more-lies-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5303609,"Re: Update
","   I hesitated adding the part of the confidentiality agreement because
   there's no clear link to BB.  Does this sound correct, without
   overstretching?

   \"In the following weeks, Lauren approached an attorney, asking to draw up
   \"legal confidentiality contracts\", likely to convince Bryan he was playing
   an official role related to STRATFOR. \"

   I can add the creation of the email address.

   On 2/10/2010 2:32 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 1) Suggest you add L's efforts to seek out legal advice to create a
 contract for Baxter, who believes he is being recruited for a Stratfor
 position.  Baxter has also been duped but may have retaliation since
 Lauren's actions were outside her scope of duties.

 2) Add the creation of the Nate email address for purposes unknown.


 Anya Alfano wrote:
  

 I made some changes to the document, per Fred's suggestion.  Press
 \"CTRL\" and click on the hyperlinks at the end of each lie to go to the
 full documentation.  Hopefully that's a little easier to read.  PGP will
 screw up the HTML and links, so I'm sending open.
    
","2010-02-10 20:51:23",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5303609_re-update-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5305447,"Updated Sales Force Contacts
","14","2010-09-21 12:00:35",1,"2012-02-27 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5305447_updated-sales-force-contacts-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","zucha@stratfor.com,amy.fisher@stratfor.com","attach/171/171512_Sales Force Contacts.xls"
5305884,"Re: FW: fyi..
","   Well seriously, I figured if I was up there I should at least say hello to
   all the other offsiters.  If she'll be there, it probably can't be
   avoided. 

   On 2/18/2010 2:26 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     Killin' me.

      

     From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Thursday, February 18, 2010 2:24 PM
     To: scott stewart
     Cc: 'Fred Burton'; 'korena zucha'
     Subject: Re: FW: fyi..

      

     This is next week?  I'll be in DC next week also--maybe we can hang out.

     On 2/18/2010 2:22 PM, scott stewart wrote:

      

      

     From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Thursday, February 18, 2010 2:18 PM
     To: scott stewart
     Subject: fyi..

      

     Just to let you know (since we were talking planes)...
     Andrew's brother will be flying me to DC in his Gulfstream next week, so
     I didn't have to pay for a flight.... nice to save Strat $$.

     --

     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
","2010-02-18 20:32:10",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5305884_re-fw-fyi-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5306963,"Re: [alpha] MORE (2) - INSIGHT - PERU - PM Resignation,
	Replacement - PE 502
","   Do we think he'll do it?

   Sent from my iPhone
   On Dec 10, 2011, at 17:38, Paulo Gregoire <paulo.gregoire@stratfor.com>
   wrote:

     That is really interesting and it would mean a significant shift in
     HumalaA's administration.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Allison Fedirka\" <allison.fedirka@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Saturday, December 10, 2011 9:00:46 PM
     Subject: [alpha] MORE (2) - INSIGHT - PERU - PM
     Resignation,        Replacement - PE 502

     SOURCE CODE: PE 502
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source in Peru
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Political insider with own consulting firm
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Allison
     In order to have a pact with Keiko, Humala ahs to pardon her father

     Para pactar con KF tiene que indultar a su padre

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Allison Fedirka\" <allison.fedirka@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Saturday, December 10, 2011 4:25:02 PM
     Subject: [alpha] MORE - INSIGHT - PERU - PM Resignation, Replacement -
     PE 502

     asked source why Lerner resigned given he at first had so much power. 
     Siomi is a nickname for Lerner

     SOURCE CODE: PE 502
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source in Peru
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Political insider with own consulting firm
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Allison

     GOOGLE
     Lerner was very fragile and Humala, ten days ago, accused Lerner of
     lacking loyalty and the low intelectual capacity of the socialist
     ministers, who were friends of Siomi.  Humala has been negotiating with
     Keiko and Toledo. Yesterday Humala called for and wanted a pardon for
     those that did things in an armed conflict.  Siomi declined to do this
     and Humala asked Lerner to resign.
     The accused lack of loyalty applies to the socialist ministers, old
     friends of Siomi who are admirers of Fidel and extremely awkward. Mocha
     Garcia Naranjo, Roncagliolo, Eguiguren, Susana Baca, Caillaux, etc.
     The President has gotten himself in a lot of trouble due to his loose
     tongue
     ORIGINAL TEXT
     Lerner era muy fragil y Humala le reclamo hace diez dias la falta de
     lealtad y la baja capacidad intelectual de los ministros socialistas
     amigos de Siomi.  Ha estado negociando con Keiko y con Toledo.
     Ayer exigio referendodel indulto.  S se nego y le pidio renuncia
     La falta de lealtad reclamada es la de los ministros socialistas, viejos
     amigos de Siomi pero admiradores de Fidel y sumamente toropes.  Mocha
     Garcia Naranjo, Roncagliolo, Eguiguren, Susana Baca, Caillaux, etc.
     Han metido en muchos lios al Presidente por lengua suelta

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Allison Fedirka\" <allison.fedirka@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Alpha List\" <alpha@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Saturday, December 10, 2011 3:57:25 PM
     Subject: [alpha] HUMINT - PERU - PM Resignation, Replacement - PE 502

     Notes: my buddy here texted me funky message early today about a cabinet
     crisis later this PM.  I didn't sent in as insight (kicking myself now,
     lesson learned and not to be repeated) but did tell Paulo to keep an eye
     out for it just in case source was on to something.  Turns out this time
     he was

     SOURCE CODE: PE 502
     ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source in Peru
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Political insider with own consulting firm
     PUBLICATION: Yes
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
     SPECIAL HANDLING: None
     SOURCE HANDLER: Allison

     GOOGLE
     Oscar Valdez is the Premier. One needs to see the new cabinet to see if
     it is allied with Fujimori or trying to recompose its alliance with
     Toledo. With both [parties] negotiations have been occurring since his
     [Humala] return from APEC.
     When the Premier resigns, all ministers are forced to resign. The
     Constitution establishes this obligation of the rest of the cabinet. The
     President has the authority to accept the resignation or not.

     ORIGINAL TEXT
     Oscar Valdez es el Premier.  Hay que ver el nuevo gabinete para ver si
     se alia a Fujimori o trata de recomponer su alianza con Toledo.  Con
     ambos ha estado negociando desde que volvio de APEC.
     Cuando renuncia el Premier, todos los ministros estan obligados a
     renunciar.  La Constitucion establece esa obligacion del resto del
     gabinete.  El Presidente tiene la facultad de aceptar la renuncia o no.

     --
     Allison Fedirka
     South America Correspondent
     STRATFOR
     US Cell: +1.512.496.3466 A| Brazil Cell: +55.11.9343.7752
     www.STRATFOR.com

     --
     Allison Fedirka
     South America Correspondent
     STRATFOR
     US Cell: +1.512.496.3466 A| Brazil Cell: +55.11.9343.7752
     www.STRATFOR.com
","2011-12-11 02:33:14",1,"2012-03-01 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5306963_re-alpha-more-2-insight-peru-pm-resignation-replacement-pe.html","hooper@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5308234,"Re: sourcing evaluations on Thurs/Fri
","41","2011-08-10 09:16:20",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5308234_re-sourcing-evaluations-on-thurs-fri-.html","colibasanu@stratfor.com","","mfriedman@stratfor.com,richmond@stratfor.com,anya.alfano@stratfor.com,eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com,antonia.colibasanu@stratfor.com","attach/171/171609_Sources.docx"
5309160,"Re: FW: [alpha] TASKING - Source Lists
","I was hoping these would be okay without encryption, since they won't
include names, contact information or anything aside from code and
country/area of interest--I was assuming all of that already goes across
open channels--should it be encrypted anyway?  Jen doesn't have PGP
working on her new machine yet, but hopefully soon.

On 8/31/11 12:24 PM, scott stewart wrote:
> I usually had people send these to me via pgp file or spark/adium, which
> is encrypted.
>
> On 8/31/11 11:36 AM, \"Anya Alfano\" <Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com> wrote:
>
>> As part of the ongoing source evaluation process, we're finding that
>> many people on our team have sources in unexpected places. To help plan
>> the evaluations, we need each of you to send a preliminary list of your
>> contacts. This preliminary list doesn't need to be formal or in the new
>> spreadsheet format that Jen sent last week -- this is only a list of the
>> contacts that you have and where they're located to make certain that
>> we're not missing anyone and we can plan the reviews appropriately.
>>
>> For your preliminary list, please include:
>> --Source Code, if applicable. Please include all contacts that you'd
>> like to be considered, even if you haven't given the contact a codename.
>> If the contact does not have a codename, indicate that in your list.
>> --Country where the contact is located
>> --Country, region or area of interest (energy, economics, etc) that the
>> contact provides information about, if different than location
>> ***Please note -- this preliminary list does NOT need to include the
>> names of your contacts or any ranking information. This exercise is only
>> meant to ensure that we're aware of all the contacts that need to be
>> evaluated.
>>
>> Please put your list together in any format that you'd like and send to
>> me and Jen Richmond by COB, Friday September 2. Let me know if there are
>> any questions.
>> Thanks,
>> Anya
>>
>>
>> Anya Alfano
>> Briefer
>> STRATFOR
>> P: (703) 622-2888
>> anya.alfano@stratfor.com
>>
>
","2011-08-31 18:41:47",1,"2012-03-01 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5309160_re-fw-alpha-tasking-source-lists-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","stewart@stratfor.com,alfano@stratfor.com",""
5315700,"Re: Letter
","   Haytham:
    
   I have forwarded all of this to the key people at the corporation.
    
   They will be able to figure out what your email address is, or how to
   respond to you in this fashion.  I can't
    
   Also, I have flagged this information to them as an issue of highest
   priority.
    
   Tony

     ----- Original Message -----
     From: bILAl reda
     To: Tony Sullivan
     Sent: Saturday, December 18, 2004 6:40 PM
     Subject: Letter
     Hello Tony
      I knew from very confident sources
      in Syria inside the Ba'th party that the party leadership is planning
     to Islamize the party
      to give the regime some Islamic and popular legitimacy on one hand, and
     to absorb the
      ascendence of the fundamentalist Islamism in Syria on the other hand,
     the vice-president
      Abdul-halim Khadam is leading this process which is very new and in its
     first step of
     planning. This info is very new and secret and this process is similar
     of what Saddam
      Hussein has done after the Gulf war when he brought the Wahabbi Salafi
     groups to Iraq
      to islamize the society in front of the Shi'ism in Iraq and later
     brought Abu Mus'ab
      al-Zarqawi and the Islamist fighters to fight the coalition forces.
     Please let's our
      correspondence be at this email and using my nickname on the bottom.
     All the best,

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     Do you Yahoo!?
     Yahoo! Mail - You care about security. So do we.
","2004-12-19 00:48:39",1,"2012-03-15 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5315700_re-letter-.html","atsullivan4321@comcast.net","","bilalkinguk@yahoo.co.uk",""
5316058,"Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
	CODE
","   Agree
   Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: scott stewart <stewart@stratfor.com>
   Sender: alpha-bounces@stratfor.com
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:59:46 -0600 (CST)
   To: Alpha List<alpha@stratfor.com>; Korena Zucha<zucha@stratfor.com>
   ReplyTo: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   I'll bet cash they are connected to the Austin guys busted for the DNC
   plot plus some of the Austin Earth First jabronis. 
   From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Date: Fri, 18 Nov 2011 11:51:44 -0600
   To: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>
   Cc: Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>, Alpha List
   <alpha@stratfor.com>
   Subject: Re: [alpha] INSIGHT-US-Occupy Austin and Deep Green Resistance-NO
   CODE
   Have we seen Deep Green Resistance carry-out acts of violence in the
   past? 

   On 11/16/2011 6:38 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     New source so don't yet have code or rankings. Source is a Texas DPS
     agent.

     There is a group you may be familiar with called Deep Green Resistance.
     They are led by (among a number of people) a eco-radical named Lierre
     Keith. She co-wrote the book, Deep Green Resistance: Strategy to Save
     the Planet. Very enlightening if you haven't read it. The movement
     advocates the collapse of industrial civilization to reach their eco
     goals. In the book, they advocate the use of guerrilla tactics to defeat
     current institutions when it comes to the environment. Whether anyone in
     the Fed or elsewhere classifies this group as eco-terror or not, I don't
     know, but they are nothing but and should be watched.

     http://deepgreenresistance.org/

     The local Austin chapter was part of the Occupy Austin crowd at city
     hall, however, things were not \"radical\" enough for them since they do
     not believe in working within the system. When I was working U/C on Nov.
     5th, some of my contacts told me that at the General Assembly on  Nov.
     4th, there was some conflict between regular Occupy people and Deep
     Green. Deep Green picked up all their stuff and left during the night.
     As best as anyone knows, they left and went to a state park off 71. The
     only place I know is McKinney Falls out in that area. They have started
     a group called the \"Phoenix Commune\" and intend to make their base out
     there, living off the land, so to speak. My source says they told him
     that as long as they move 10' everyday, the park officials can't make
     them leave. These Deep Green people worry me. When my Occupy people
     refer to them as \"stupid, crazy motherfuckers\", that bothers me, because
     these Occupy people will tolerate just about anything.

     I passed the info on to locals and since the park is way outside the
     complex, I haven't done any follow up other than to keep an eye and ear
     open for anything they may plan for the complex.

     Early on in the Occupy movement, they got the group to support some
     document called, \"Indigenous Struggle Solidarity Statement\" calling
     Austin an occupied territory. It includes a picture of armed native
     Americans.

     http://deepgreenresistanceaustin.org/2011/10/09/occupy-austin%E2%80%99s-indigenous-struggle-solidarity-statement/

     So, to make a long story short, I think the eco-terror group is focused
     on creating a situation where violent confrontation will be the ultimate
     outcome.
","2011-11-18 21:17:02",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5316058_re-alpha-insight-us-occupy-austin-and-deep-green-resistance.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:alpha@stratfor.com","alpha@stratfor.com",""
5321612,"Re: Fwd: Re: Missing SAMs
","   Jack Mattera told me this morning that they're likely to contract with the
   USG for a removal/neutralization contract for the leftover weapons. 
   They're in the running with all of the usual suspects.

   On 10/24/11 4:44 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

     SAM issue --

     Near the Port of Esrata (sp), off to the right, is the primary warehouse
     where the SAMs were/are still located.  He's going to get us still shots
     and grid coordinates.  Maybe we can get a DG shot? 

     Man portable SAM's and Tow SAM's are missing; exact # unk

     The concern is they have already made their way to the Gypo border to be
     used against Israel. 

     -------- Original Message --------

     Subject: Re: Missing SAMs                            
        Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 15:38:34 -0400             
        From: James F. Smith <jamie@scginternational.com> 
          To: burton@stratfor.com <burton@stratfor.com>   

 Call 757-478-7383 to discuss

 Sent from my mobile device

 On Oct 24, 2011, at 19:13, \"burton@stratfor.com\" <burton@stratfor.com> wrote:

 > We are getting reports of missing SAMs in Libya...large quantities...Fred
 >
 > Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
 >
","2011-10-24 22:47:22",1,"2012-03-19 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5321612_re-fwd-re-missing-sams-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5331111,"FW: Re: UrgentAND POSSIBLY VERY IMPORTANT
","    
    

     -------------- Forwarded Message: --------------
     From: atsullivan4321@comcast.net
     To: Bilalkinguk <bilalkinguk@yahoo.co.uk>
     Subject: Re: Urgent
     Date: Fri, 24 Dec 2004 18:39:35 +0000
     Dear Bilal:
      
     Do I understand from this that you have specific information as to where
     the individual involved is being held, and by whom?
      
     If that is the case, and the information again checks out, I think you
     will be delighted with your compensation.
      
     Please confirm.
      
     Hussein
      

       -------------- Original message --------------

       > Dear Hussein,
       > The new story is about Ron Arad and this is very
       > important and needs a special exclusive compensation
       > and special arrangements. I send you enclosed a piece
       > explains why it is so important and expensive.
       > Bilal
       > =========
       > *
       > Ten million dollars for information
       > on Ron Arad 7-Dec-2004
       >
       > The Born to Freedom
       > Foundation has launched a 10
       > million dollar
       > campaign to obtain information on
       > missing Israeli Air
       > Force navigator, Captain Ron
       > Arad.
       >
       > The Born to Freedom Foundation
       > on Tuesday, December 7,
       > 2004, launched n exceptional
       > campaign - offering a $10m
       > reward to anyone providing
       > proven and reliable
       > information about the location
       > of Ron Arad and other
       > soldiers missing in action -
       > Zachary Baumel, Yehuda
       > Katz, Zvi Feldman and the
       > missing soldier Guy Hever.
       > Due to no progress and having
       > reached a dead end in all
       > related efforts regarding the
       > fate of Ron Arad, Attorney
       > Eliad Shraga initiated in
       > September 1999 an innovative
       > plan of action, centered on a
       > $10m reward to be awarded
       > to anyone who provides proven
       > information on Ron Arad.
       > He moreover proposed to
       > assemble a special investigation
       > team to analyze and assess all
       > material currently
       > available on the subject. The
       > new initiative was and is
       > based on the premise that
       > several dozen persons
       > throughout the world may know
       > what happened to the
       > captured navigator. Since then
       > and to this very day the
       > foundation has been preparing
       > to put this concept into
       > practice and has carried out
       > extensive activities to
       > promote this objective.
       > It is the first and
       > unprecedented humanitarian campaign
       > of this type in the world,
       > aimed at placing the release
       > of Ron Arad at the top of the
       > public agenda and creating
       > a worldwide effect, says
       > Eliad Shraga, the foundations
       > active vice chairman. We are
       > certain that several dozen
       > people throughout the world
       > are aware of the fate of Ron
       > Arad and the other missing
       > soldiers, and we are all
       > hopeful that a worldwide
       > appeal will reach them and thus
       > help break the deadlock.
       > The foundation is able to
       > receive telephone, facsimile
       > and Internet messages in four
       > principal languages:
       > English, Arabic, Persian and
       > Russian. A website set up
       > to provide information on the
       > foundation -
       > www.10million.org - contains
       > information on Ron Arad and
       > soldiers missing in action
       > from the Sultan Yakub battle:
       > Zachary Baumel, Yehuda Katz,
       > Zvi Feldman, as well as the
       > missing soldier Guy Hever.
       > Who is Ron Arad?
       > On October 16 1986, Israel Air
       > Force navigator Ron Arad
       > bailed out of his plane on a
       > mission in Lebanon and was
       > captured by members of the
       > Iranian-backed Shiite group,
       > Amal. Since then, Ron has been
       > held captive by a various
       > of factions and groups, all of
       > them extremist Shiite
       > groups, backed by Iran.
       > Soon after his capture, there
       > was a series of
       > negotiations for Rons
       > release. The first round broke
       > down in 1988. It is believed
       > that Arad was then sold
       > by Amal security chief Mustafa
       > Dirani to other Iranian
       > backed forces in Lebanon.
       > Since then, contradictory
       > reports abound. By May 1988 he
       > had disappeared
       > completly.
       > Israeli intelligence also
       > believes Arad is being held in
       > Iran or Lebanon by Iranian
       > backed forces. The Iranians
       > have never publicly admitted
       > to holding Ron or to having
       > any information regarding his
       > condition or location.
       > More than 18 years have passed
       > since Ron Arad was forced
       > to eject from his plane over
       > Lebanon on October 16,
       > 1986. In spite of all the
       > efforts invested and being
       > made by the State of Israel,
       > assisted by several
       > friendly states, we have not
       > yet been able to determine
       > what happened to Ron Arad
       > since his last letter dated
       > September 1987.
       > This unique case of a soldier
       > captured and then
       > disappearing without a trace
       > is unprecedented in our
       > history:
       > In his first year of
       > captivity, letters and photographs
       > of Ron were received
       > indicating that he was alive. In
       > May 1988, he disappeared
       > without a trace and we know
       > nothing of his fate since
       > then. In June, 2002 the
       > Minister of Defense appointed
       > a committee headed by
       > former Justice Eliyahu
       > Vinograd, charging it with
       > examining all information
       > available to Israel regarding
       > the fate of Ron Arad. The
       > Vinograd Committee published
       > its conclusions in August
       > 2003, stating that the
       > assumption that Ron Arad is
       > alive and held in captivity
       > is still in force.
       > Conclusions of the Vinograd
       > Committee substantiated and
       > reinforced the action program
       > for which the Born to
       > Freedom Foundation was
       > launched.
       >
       >
       >
       >
       >
       >
       > ___________________________________________________________
       > ALL-NEW Yahoo! Messenger - all new features - even more fun!
       > http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com
","2004-12-24 19:41:45",1,"2012-03-15 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5331111_fw-re-urgentand-possibly-very-important-.html","atsullivan4321@comcast.net","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,harshey@stratfor.com",""
5331882,"Fwd: Got a moment? Syria 757 478 7383  (post, I think)
","   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walid_Phares

   http://myrick.house.gov/

   ** Source and Dr. Walid Phares are getting air cover from Congresswoman
   Myrick to engage Syrian opposition in Turkey (non-MB and non-Qatari) on a
   fact finding mission for Congress. 

   ** The true mission is how they can help in regime change. 

   ** Source intends to offer his services to help protect the opposition
   members, like he had underway in Libya. 

   ** Source says Booze, Hamilton is also working w/the Agency on a similar
   request. 

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Got a moment? Syria 757 478 7383          
      Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2011 14:59:26 -0500           
      From: JFS <jsmith@graytm.com>                   
        To: burton@stratfor.com <burton@stratfor.com> 

 JS Sent from mobile device
","2011-12-13 21:19:20",1,"2012-03-19 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5331882_fwd-got-a-moment-syria-757-478-7383-post-i-think-.html","burton@stratfor.com","","anya.alfano@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5334702,"Research Request
","   Hi Ben,
   As we discussed, I'd like to put a really good research-oriented intern on
   the case to find the following information.

   - How many PETA supporters are there in Canada?
   -- How many of these are inclined toward activism?
   -- To what extent is PETA in Canada linked to PETA in the US or elsewhere?
   --What sort of attacks has PETA carried out in Canada?
   -- To what extent could non-PETA hangers-on (such as anarchists or ALF
   supporters) get involved in any protest activity?

   To put some context onto this request, our client is looking forward
   toward the 2010 Olympics in Vancouver and is somewhat concerned that PETA
   affiliates might be interested in carry out direct action against Olympic
   sponsors and events during that time frame.  Any information we can give
   them regarding their activities and what might be expected if the
   organization chooses to participate in direct actions would be very
   helpful to their planning. 

   Please let me know if there are any questions.  I need all the information
   our talented interns can dig up by COB tomorrow, Wednesday, June 3. 
   Thanks,
   Anya
","2009-06-02 21:10:02",1,"2012-02-27 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5334702_research-request-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","ben.west@stratfor.com",""
5337902,"Re: From G
","   Sounds good.

   On 12/29/2009 4:28 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     I thought we'd let Fred continue to interface with Mooney.
      
      

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Tuesday, December 29, 2009 4:22 PM
     To: scott stewart
     Cc: burton@stratrfor.com; korena.zucha@stratfor.com
     Subject: Re: From G
     A few thoughts below.  Did you want to talk with Mooney about the IT
     questions, or can we help you with that?

     On 12/29/2009 4:17 PM, scott stewart wrote:

        
       Thanks.  Thank the team.
        
       1:  Why would she be calling her own cell phone?  Checking voice
       mail?  Do we have the length of the conversations.

     We can check with Mooney for length of the conversations.  My first
     thought was that she was using her desk phone and making calls,
     pretending to be talking to sources.  She would need an actual number to
     dial while she's talking to make it look real. 

       2: I do need to see the emails she sent to Eurasia group and other
       think tanks.  This is one place where our reputation could be effected
       and I need to see those.

     Another Mooney question.

       3: Is there an Anderson Shipping in the UK?  This implies that there
       is.

     Yes, we found a company in the UK named Anderson Shipping and Haulage,
     better known as Fresh Catch--mostly involved in fish and seafood
     shipping. 
     http://www.thefoodworld.com/company/anderson-shipping-haulage

        
        
       Scott Stewart
       STRATFOR
       Office: 814 967 4046
       Cell: 814 573 8297
       scott.stewart@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com
        
","2009-12-29 22:34:49",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5337902_re-from-g-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5337914,"Re: [Fwd: Re: follow up]
","I'm actually a little surprised that gf doesn't have every inch of the
interior covered by surveillance cameras.... 

On 12/30/2009 12:27 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
> Can't remember any other cameras.
>
> Anya Alfano wrote:
>   
>> Do you think there are better pics of him out there?  Was anyone else at
>> the party taking pictures?
>>
>>
>> On 12/30/2009 12:23 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
>>     
>>> Not yet
>>>
>>> Anya Alfano wrote:
>>>   
>>>       
>>>> Any word on the pictures of BB?
>>>>
>>>> On 12/30/2009 12:21 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
>>>>     
>>>>         
","2009-12-30 18:31:00",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5337914_re-fwd-re-follow-up-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5338303,"Fwd: Insight - CIA Source on Iran
","   -------- Original Message --------

        Subject: Insight - CIA Source on Iran           
           Date: Tue, 22 Dec 2009 22:05:52 -0600        
           From: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>      
       Reply-To: Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>   
   Organization: Stratfor Inc.                          
             To: 'Analyst List' <analysts@stratfor.com> 

   From a CIA source (pls protect the CIA as the source): 
    
    
   Uncle xxx, Will Israel or the U.S. strike Iran in the near future?   
    
   ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    
   Fred,
    
   I don't think they will in the near future, not because they don't want
   to, but because Obama doesn't want them to.  Israel has pushed back the
   date that Iran will have nukes, which takes some of the pressure off.  I
   also don't think Netanyahu wants to challenge Obama this early in their
   relationship.  He was just here, and I'm sure they talked about it, and I
   can't imagine Obama gave him even the hint of a green light.  I don't
   think Obama would be very pleased with Netanyahu jumping the gun on him. 
   Obama's Nobel speech was very pointed about using force when threatened,
   so he has credibility when it comes to using it, but he obviously doesn't
   feel it's the right time for anything but sanctions.  He's a very patient
   man.
    
   it seems to me that attacking Iran is a big leap up for the Israeli Air
   Force too.  It's a long flight over countries that won't look the other
   way on overflights, and they have only one shot to get it right.  They
   can't do shock and awe for sustained periods like we can do.  The Iranians
   may be a little better at defense too than the Syrians because they may
   know the Israelis are coming.  I don't how they would practice for it.
    
","2010-01-05 18:47:23",1,"2012-03-06 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5338303_fwd-insight-cia-source-on-iran-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","sttest@stratfor.com",""
5338716,"Re: from reva
","No Accurint shows no results for Ella or Elizabeth Comyn anywhere in the
US.  Also no Facebook or myspace results. 

The email address doesn't seem to have any immediate internet hits either.

On 1/11/2010 9:50 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
> And Ella Comyn doesn't exist, correct?
>
> Korena Zucha wrote:
>   
>> I've seen Ella written on her Starbucks coffee cups as well.
>>
>>
>> Fred Burton wrote:
>>     
>>> would check out this email address...
>>>
>>> this is what she claims is her real name
>>>
>>> Begin forwarded message:
>>>
>>>   
>>>       
>>>> From: Elizabeth Comyn <ellacomyn@yahoo.com>
>>>> Date: January 11, 2010 12:34:46 AM CST
>>>> To: undisclosed recipients: ;
>>>> Subject: Greetings my Wedding Party members!
>>>>
>>>> My darling Wedding Party,
>>>>
>>>> I have been asked by my Wedding Party orchestrators to connect with
>>>>     
>>>>         
>>> each member and ask if they would prefer to be contacted by the foresaid
>>> coordinator by email, mail or phone (the latter being the least
>>> desirable)-- in order to coordinate all engagement/wedding arrangements.
>>> Please reply to me with what you prefer. Also reply with what contact
>>> information you prefer to have connected through (ie, your address or
>>> email).
>>>   
>>>       
>>>> We're sending out some very rustic and preliminary information this week.
>>>>
>>>> Blessed be those that go through this process with Andrew and I,
>>>> Thank you all!
>>>> Ella
>>>>
>>>>     
>>>>         
","2010-01-11 15:58:29",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5338716_re-from-reva-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com,zucha@stratfor.com",""
5338894,"Re: Q
","   We should talk in the morning.  From what I can tell, there are about
   three or four groups of friends, and all are getting different stories.  A
   few examples --
   --\"I'm in Iran or Afghanistan, depending on when you read this\". 
   --\"
   Personal life is good (I say as I blush). Nate and I have done alot of our
   traveling together, so he is still my one constant.\"  

   Just more convoluted than I thought, but not many new leads about BB. 

   On 1/12/2010 8:22 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

 Wow

 Good work

 What kinda lives?  

 -----Original Message-----
 From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
 Sent: Tuesday, January 12, 2010 7:02 PM
 To: Fred Burton
 Subject: Re: Q

 We can discuss tomorrow.  I figured she didn't have other friends, but she
 does--she's living several different lives, telling each group different
 stuff.  I'm wondering if there's a group beyond BB who's in on the charade?

 On 1/12/2010 7:49 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
  

 Can ask, are we missing a piece of the puzzle?

 -----Original Message-----
 From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
 Sent: Tuesday, January 12, 2010 6:44 PM
 To: Fred Burton
 Subject: Q

 Has R met any of L's non-S4 friends?

  
    

  
","2010-01-13 07:31:15",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5338894_re-q-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
5339195,"Re: note from R re L
","No, Jen is an attorney in Houston, not a dancer, and not in Paris.  The
bachelorette party is this weekend, not the wedding, but I'm not sure
where.  L specifically asked her to start sending wedding info to her
yahoo account, so I don't see anything new for more than a month.
","2010-01-18 22:28:52",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5339195_re-note-from-r-re-l-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5353053,"Note
","I just traced the IP address that LG used this morning--appears she's
using a residential Austin Road Runner connection this morning.  Not
sure if you've already set up plans inside Austin, but she appears to be
there if you're ready.
","2009-12-27 17:58:37",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5353053_note-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
5353229,"Re: Fw: Location update
","The messages she sent earlier today bounced on a Wayport internet
connection.  Looks like she was at an AT&T Wifi location that was
connected to the Wayport network--I'm not positive, but it appears the
network is based in Austin.  Mooney will probably have a better idea.

On 1/3/2010 8:37 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
> ------Original Message------
> From: Michael D. Mooney
> To: Fred Burton
> Subject: Re: Location update
> Sent: Jan 3, 2010 7:34 PM
>
> I'll put together a dump of loc info in AM. Not near a pc right now.
>
> I'll make sure it shows loc at intervals from dec 31 through tomorrow
>
> Sent from my iPhone
>
> On Jan 3, 2010, at 19:29, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
>
>   
>> Mike, Any sense on our gals location?  Thanks
>>
>> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>>     
>
> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>   
","2010-01-04 02:55:25",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5353229_re-fw-location-update-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,zucha@stratfor.com",""
5353431,"Re: [Fwd: FYI (not urgent)]
","Had you seen her after the Christmas party?  Maybe she's embarrassed
that he acted like a dud?

On 1/5/2010 10:42 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
> Yes, but doesn't it
>
> ------Original Message------
> From: Anya Alfano
> To: Fred Burton
> Cc: 'korena zucha'
> Subject: Re: [Fwd: FYI (not urgent)]
> Sent: Jan 5, 2010 9:41 AM
>
> Does pz know she's not what she seems?
>
> On 1/5/2010 10:40 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
>   
>> Susan believes Reva or Peter has tipped her off. 
>>
>> ------Original Message------
>> From: Anya Alfano
>> To: Fred Burton
>> Cc: 'korena zucha'
>> Subject: Re: [Fwd: FYI (not urgent)]
>> Sent: Jan 5, 2010 9:39 AM
>>
>> Is she also avoiding gf?  She may have noticed that he's been asking a
>> lot of questions about where she is. 
>>
>>
>> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>>   
>>     
>
> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>   
","2010-01-05 16:44:39",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5353431_re-fwd-fyi-not-urgent-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5353871,"Re: question
","Yes, I'm trying to figure out how to pull up real estate transaction
records so we can get an idea of how much he earned in commission. 

On 1/8/2010 8:04 AM, scott stewart wrote:
> So would real estate in Austin. You could earn that much commission on one
> decent house sale.  
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com] 
> Sent: Thursday, January 07, 2010 11:11 PM
> To: burton@stratfor.com
> Cc: Scott Stewart; Korena Zucha; 'korena zucha'
> Subject: Re: question
>
> That would be a great way to earn $45k in cash by the time you're 23.
>
> On 1/7/2010 10:24 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
>   
>> Maybe he's a gigalo?
>>  
>> ------Original Message------
>> From: Scott Stewart
>> To: Anya Alfano
>> To: Fred Burton
>> Cc: Korena Zucha
>> Cc: 'korena zucha'
>> Subject: RE: question
>> Sent: Jan 7, 2010 8:46 PM
>>
>> If a woman wanted to call me by another name and have me pretend to be 
>> a British Lord to her friends, she'd have to be a whole lot more 
>> attractive than Lauren.
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
>> Sent: Thursday, January 07, 2010 5:00 PM
>> To: Fred Burton
>> Cc: zucha@stratfor.com; scott stewart; korena zucha
>> Subject: Re: question
>>
>> I feel like I'm missing something here--I totally understand the idea 
>> that some men don't necessarily think with the brain on top of their 
>> shoulders all the time, but this just seems nuts.  He's letting a girl 
>> call him by some random name, speaking with a British accent, 
>> pretending to be a British lord, and who knows what else--but why? 
>> What is he getting out of it (besides maybe the obvious...)?
>>
>> On 1/7/2010 1:09 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
>>   
>>     
>>> Drew w/a British accent
>>>   
>>>     
>>>       
>>>> Does R know him as Brian, or Drew?
>>>>
>>>> On 1/7/2010 12:36 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
>>>>     
>>>>       
>>>>         
>>>>> R advises both L & B are unbelievable poker players.  R thinks they 
>>>>> work as a tandem.
>>>>>
>>>>> Anya Alfano wrote:
>>>>>   
>>>>>       
>>>>>         
>>>>>           
>>>>>> Maybe the guy has roommates to cover the mortgage so he doesn't 
>>>>>> have any expenses?  Both his cell phone number and his driver's 
>>>>>> license are registered to the pflugerville home that he owns.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On 1/7/2010 12:04 PM, zucha@stratfor.com wrote:
>>>>>>     
>>>>>>         
>>>>>>           
>>>>>>             
>>>>>>> As a note, his accurint report showed that he had a roommate both 
>>>>>>> at the pflugerville home and Duvall apt although the guy's name 
>>>>>>> did not match those for owners of the cars in the driveway.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Jan 7, 2010, at 10:56 AM, Anya Alfano 
>>>>>>> <anya.alfano@stratfor.com <mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com>> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>       
>>>>>>>           
>>>>>>>             
>>>>>>>               
>>>>>>>> Yes, the number that LG provided is 512-507-6544.  The number is 
>>>>>>>> registered in the name of Brian Baxter at the address of the 
>>>>>>>> home he owns.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On 1/7/2010 11:52 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
>>>>>>>>         
>>>>>>>>             
>>>>>>>>               
>>>>>>>>                 
>>>>>>>>> Do you have Baxter's cell #?
>>>>>>>>>   
>>>>>>>>>           
>>>>>>>>>               
>>>>>>>>>                 
>>>>>>>>>                   
>>
>> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>>     
>   
","2010-01-08 14:42:38",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5353871_re-question-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com,zucha@stratfor.com",""
5354599,"Re: Docs
","Let me know if you need any more information on the guy in KZ, or
different info for Dr. L. 

On 1/19/2010 7:31 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
> Got kazak
>
> Need the doctor - open is a-ok 
>
> Thanks  
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com] 
> Sent: Tuesday, January 19, 2010 5:06 PM
> To: Fred Burton
> Subject: Docs
>
> I've got two documents for you since the file transfer didn't seem to work,
> and I noticed you're having trouble with Korena's PGP now too. 
> I've got:
> 1. Emails with the guy in Kazakhstan
> 2. An overview for the doctor
>
> Do you want me to send them to you open?  Or is there another way I can
> shoot them to you?
> Anya
>
>
>   
","2010-01-20 19:48:15",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5354599_re-docs-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
5354860,"Re: routine
","I think that insight came from whatever source number was at the top of
the message.  I think she meant it as something the source told her.

On 1/26/2010 11:15 AM, scott stewart wrote:
> We can prove without question that she did not meet Mr. S on Sunday for
> brunch. 
>
>
>   
","2010-01-26 17:20:33",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5354860_re-routine-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","scott.stewart@stratfor.com",""
5355091,"Re: phone logs
","Not sure, but the phone number is tied to \"Remington's Night Club\" in
DC.  ????

On 1/28/2010 3:34 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
> what is esta sol?  numerous calls there...
>   
","2010-01-28 21:38:23",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5355091_re-phone-logs-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5355211,"Syrian Opposition breakdown
","   This goes to show how many players there are in the opposition--there
   isn't just one main opposition leader. Several groups and several players
   within those groups too, all highlighted in the attachment. Ashley is
   going a good job of keeping up with all of this.

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Re: Syrian Opposition                          
      Date: Wed, 14 Dec 2011 09:57:52 -0600 (CST)          
      From: Ashley Harrison <ashley.harrison@stratfor.com> 
        To: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>              

   Attached is one of my docs on the opposition, it is actually the shortened
   version and is still 14 pages.  I haven't updated it in 1-2 months, but
   much of it still stands.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Korena Zucha\" <zucha@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Ashley Harrison\" <ashley.harrison@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2011 2:47:46 PM
   Subject: Syrian Opposition

   Hey Ashley,

   We've provided an overview of the Syrian opposition in the analysis below
   but do you have any more info on specific leaders within these opposition
   players and main figures beyond Ali Bayanouni? No need to do any special
   research for this at this point. I know you've looked into this so was
   just wondering if you had a list of key players? Whatever is most simple
   works. For example \"name--organization/sect/group whatever.\"

   If not, that's fine, just let me know. Thanks.

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Re: syrian opposition                                             
      Date: Tue, 13 Dec 2011 14:30:24 -0600                                   
      From: Korena Zucha <zucha@stratfor.com>                                 
        To: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>                                 
        CC: 'korena zucha' <korena.zucha@stratfor.com>, Anya Alfano           
            <Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com>                                        

   We provided an overview in an analysis below. Multiple actors that make up
   the opposition.

   http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110928-syrian-opposition-perception-and-reality

  Makeup of the Opposition

   There are factions of the opposition that operate both inside Syria and
   outside. The external opposition is highly fractured, composed of people
   who cannot account authoritatively for the reality on the ground.

   The protests on the ground consist primarily of young and middle-aged men,
   though women and children are also present at times. The largest protests
   materialize after Friday prayers, when participants congregate on the
   streets outside mosques. That is not to say protests are relegated solely
   to Fridays; a number of demonstrations have been held on other days of the
   week but on a smaller scale. These protests also consist of men, women and
   children of all ages.

   But the opposition is ideologically diverse. A key element of what is
   considered Syria's traditional opposition - groups that have long been
   opposed to the regime - is the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), which the
   regime has demonized throughout the unrest. In 1976, the Syrian MB began
   an armed insurgency against the Alawite regime, led at the time by al
   Assad's father, Hafez. By 1982 the group was crushed in the notorious Hama
   massacre that allegedly killed some 30,000 civilians. The MB was driven
   underground, and dissenters in other Sunni majority cities, including Jisr
   al-Shughour, were quickly stamped out.

   Today, the Syrian MB remains a key participant in the opposition movement,
   but its capabilities inside Syria are weak. Syrian MB leader Ali Bayanouni
   resides in exile in London, and the Syrian MB outside Syria has become
   increasingly involved in the external opposition movement, participating
   in conferences such as the NCS conference in Istanbul in late August.

   However, the Syrian MB is unable to maintain much influence in Syria due
   to a limited presence inside the country, and it would take a concerted
   effort on the part of the Islamist group to earn the trust and fellowship
   of other Syrians. Since the banning of the Syrian MB in 1980, al Assad's
   regime has been quick to blame the organization for militant attacks as a
   means of instilling fear of the MB among Syrian citizens. Christians,
   Alawites, and even other Muslims are wary of a conservative Sunni group
   gaining political influence in the regime.

   Opposition has also traditionally been found in Syria's mostly Kurdish
   northeast due to the Kurds' long-standing grievances against the regime,
   which has denied the group basic rights and citizenship. The Kurds have
   taken part in conferences led by the external opposition, such as the NCS
   meeting in Istanbul. Protests have meanwhile occurred in Kurdish majority
   cities such as Darbasiyah, Amuda and Qamishli, but they have not reached
   the scale of unrest as those in Sunni-concentrated areas. The Kurds and
   Sunnis may share the desire for regime change, but once the goal of regime
   change is achieved, whoever is in power, aside from the Kurds, will seek
   to contain Kurdish separatism. There already have been indications that
   Kurdish representatives among Syria's protest movement are being excluded
   from the process of drafting demands.

   The Syrian MB and the Kurds are two of several groups that have tried to
   coalesce, without much success, into a more substantial opposition force
   inside Syria in recent years. These groups took advantage of the Syrian
   regime's weakened position following the withdrawal from Lebanon in the
   spring of 2005 by drafting and signing the Damascus Declaration in October
   of the same year. Written by Syrian dissident Michel Kilo, the declaration
   was a statement of unity calling for political reforms. Declaration
   signatories include the Kurdish Democratic Alliance in Syria and the
   Kurdish Democratic Front in Syria. The Syrian MB was originally part of
   the Damascus Declaration, but internal disagreements led the MB to
   distance itself from this opposition movement in 2009. Disunity among the
   opposition remains to this day.

   Despite the disconnect between the external and internal opposition
   forces, some progress is being made to bridge the gap. Of the various
   councils formed by opposition members outside Syria, the NCS has recently
   emerged as the only council that has received the support of the Local
   Coordinating Committees (LLC), a group that claims to unite roughly 120
   smaller coordinating committees across Syria. The NCS was selected by a
   diverse committee of independents, leftists, liberals and Kurds and claims
   that roughly half of its members, which include grassroots activists and
   traditional opposition supporters, are based inside Syria.

   In the past, the LLC and many other internal Syrian opposition groups,
   fearing competition, have been quick to denounce the formation of these
   external councils. Although many logistical constraints of uniting the
   external and internal opposition persist, the fact that the LLC has
   pledged support for the NCS and called upon the Damascus Declaration
   parties and Kurdish leadership to do so mean this should be watched as a
   potential sign of the opposition gaining coherence.

    
","2011-12-14 17:18:22",1,"2012-03-19 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5355211_syrian-opposition-breakdown-.html","zucha@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,anya.alfano@stratfor.com","attach/154/154205_Whiteboard Doc.docx"
5360092,"Update
","I didn't find the almanac that gf was talking about, but I've found a
bunch of other documentation and I'm 95% sure there are no \"lords\" by
the name we're searching.  I'm sifting through about 95 possible results
with the same surname--should have an answer later this evening. 
","2009-12-24 00:04:43",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5360092_update-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
5360825,"Re: question
","Did the question of his employment come up during the weekend? 

On 1/7/2010 1:43 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
> R claims L's gold and jewelry is real. 
>
> Spent a weekend with the two and his accent sounded real to R.
>
> ------Original Message------
> From: Anya Alfano
> To: Fred Burton
> Cc: Korena Zucha
> Cc: Scott Stewart
> Cc: korena zucha
> Subject: Re: question
> Sent: Jan 7, 2010 12:16 PM
>
> And no one suspected the accent wasn't real?  Has anyone called the cell
> phone number to see if the person who picks up has an accent?
>
> On 1/7/2010 1:09 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
>   
>> Drew w/a British accent
>>
>> Anya Alfano wrote:
>>   
>>     
>>> Does R know him as Brian, or Drew?
>>>
>>> On 1/7/2010 12:36 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
>>>     
>>>       
>>>> R advises both L & B are unbelievable poker players.  R thinks they work
>>>> as a tandem.
>>>>
>>>> Anya Alfano wrote:
>>>>   
>>>>       
>>>>         
>>>>> Maybe the guy has roommates to cover the mortgage so he doesn't have any
>>>>> expenses?  Both his cell phone number and his driver's license are
>>>>> registered to the pflugerville home that he owns.
>>>>>
>>>>> On 1/7/2010 12:04 PM, zucha@stratfor.com wrote:
>>>>>     
>>>>>         
>>>>>           
>>>>>> As a note, his accurint report showed that he had a roommate both at
>>>>>> the pflugerville home and Duvall apt although the guy's name did not
>>>>>> match those for owners of the cars in the driveway.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Jan 7, 2010, at 10:56 AM, Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com
>>>>>> <mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com>> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>       
>>>>>>           
>>>>>>             
>>>>>>> Yes, the number that LG provided is 512-507-6544.  The number is
>>>>>>> registered in the name of Brian Baxter at the address of the home he
>>>>>>> owns. 
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 1/7/2010 11:52 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
>>>>>>>         
>>>>>>>             
>>>>>>>               
>>>>>>>> Do you have Baxter's cell #?
>>>>>>>>   
>>>>>>>>           
>>>>>>>>               
>>>>>>>>                 
>
> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2010-01-07 19:53:50",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5360825_re-question-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com,zucha@stratfor.com",""
5360841,"Re: Mooney
","Could we get the username and password for the S4 account on AT&T?  I
think I could find it from there.  On my personal account, I can see
each individual user phone number and search their usage for the last 12
months. --it's all on the AT&T website and no one should know it was
even looked at.


On 1/7/2010 7:13 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
> I'm checking or trying to.  Seems it may not be that simple.  Also trying to
> do it in a non-alerting fashion.   
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com] 
> Sent: Thursday, January 07, 2010 4:34 PM
> To: Fred Burton
> Cc: 'korena zucha'; scott stewart
> Subject: Re: Mooney
>
> The fact that there are no messages from him to her also makes his role look
> really strange--assuming he's just in it for sex, wouldn't there still be
> some communication between the two of them?  No communication would indicate
> some sort of paid relationship, maybe? 
>
> One other thought--does the company pay for her cell phone bill?  If so, we
> should be able to get a list of her cell phone calls.  I'd be interested to
> see if there are regular calls between her cell phone number and his known
> cell phone number. 
>
> On 1/7/2010 3:25 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
>   
>> Mooney is going to walk back the cat on the email and phones again, in 
>> an effort to smoke out any new data.  He recalled a Baxter gmail acct 
>> in his first sweep, but zero email back to her.
>>   
>>     
>   
","2010-01-08 01:49:31",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5360841_re-mooney-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5360956,"Re: xxx
","The timeline doesn't fit--we heard all sorts of stories that didn't make
sense long before she was allegedly dying.  
","2010-01-08 20:12:25",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5360956_re-xxx-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5361076,"GF notes 100111
","News organization.  Produces the news through Intelligence. 

Market is wide open for what we do.  Tremendous advantage.  Established
brand.  We produce an outstanding product. 

Our challenge is that we're not well-enough known.  There are some in
some areas that know us well, DOD and intel community, and spotty parts
of financial community.  Bob's job is to do what he did in CQ.  In
Washington, CQ was a publication you had to buy because you were afraid
not to buy it.  You were afraid not to know what your competitors were
doing.  Paranoid buying. 

Unlike most companies that build large marketing department, we flipped
it.  We have been trying, failing, shaping, reshaping, until we have a
product, or a core capability, that is not only valuable, but people buy
it.  Not enough people buy it.  But enough buy it that we are now at
overe 50k subscribers, actually more than a million. 

When the US air force buys Stratfor, this means 300k people are
subscribers.  If we were doing advertising, we would say we had 300k
subscribers.  We won't say that.  We impose a rule.  We took the amount
they paid and divided it by $50--least we charge a bulk subscribers--and
said we had that many subscribers.  50k is what's needed to be taken
seriously.  We have more than weekly standard and new republic.  These
are well-known publications and we beat them.  We're now at the
threshold.  I could justify that we have 1.3 million subscribers, in the
sense that 1.3 million people have the right to read Stratfor. 

2.4 million people read our product each week.  Stolen information,
forwarding of weeklies, etc.  That's a big footprint.  We're moving from
being a small company to a modestly small company with over 100
employees all told.  Bob is coming in to do all the things I don't know
how to do.  I tried to do them and failed, best indication I don't know
how to do it.  I'm not interested in doing it, building the \"business
side of the company\".  What I did got us to this point but it won't get
us to the next point.

Bob is doing two things.  First, he's a tremendous presence.  Someone
from the NY Times said Bob Merry is an icon in Washington.  He brings
tremendous credibility in publishing.  On the side, he writes books
about James Polk and the conquest of Mexico and the the Cold War.  He
understands, former counterintelligence for the army, 10 years at the
WSJ, and he likes building businesses, which is good because I don't
like building businesses.  He's going to take care of that, and I'll
take care of intelligence.  I'm in charge, but I'm not going to give
orders where previous orders have not succeeded. 

We meet in product development.  Right now we have one product--the
website.  We write for the website and everything we know goes into it. 
Our readers have said they hate the amount of material we deliver. 
They're really saying they're interested as a consumer and want to
devote a certain amount of time, but don't want to devote their lives to
understanding, so you should be more selective.  We also do things for
corporations in order to avoid venture capitalists.  Venture capital
would wreck us, and this is an entirely new business, and they won't
allow you to make mistakes, but we will make mistakes.  These contracts
are large enough to fund our growth. We can't meet the demands of the
VC, so this strategy works. 

We are a self funding company--we own it and we use our revenue to build
the company.  Bob Merry has come on board and we're about to change the
game by increasing revenues.  To change the game we need revenues.  To
get the money needed to change the game, we have to play some really
careful ball. 

Stratfor can be as profitable as I want it to be.  But we spend every
cent we get reinvesting in the company.  The danger of not doing that is
standing still--someone else could come get us.  In 2008, I went too far
toward SRM.  My goal is to not do that again.  We're going to redeploy
our resources very carefully. 

In the consumer field, we're up against the economist--it's their market
we have to tap into.  We have a market of about 2.8 million people
interested in international news.  We're also fortunate to have other
markets.  The economist sold its product to consumers and is desperate
to sell to business also--EIU--now a leading joke.  Many reasons for
that.  We have, Bob feels, the ability to sell to businesses.  But most
businesses steal what we have and they're very proud of it.  They don't
feel bad about it.  That's what will happen in the electronic age.  You
can go to war with customers, but that's not a good business model.  You
need to have product differentiation--something different for corp
customers.  Otherwise, I'll buy one license and send to my friends. 
Consumer is buying because he wants to get smart, or because he enjoys
the subject.  Sports fanatic--don't go to newspaper, they go to ESPN and
sports websites.  Those customers who go to ESPN know a huge amount,
care about it, and can only be satisfied with a high quality product. 
There is no market for a mediocre sports website. 

Our consumer readers are not buying us as a throwaway. They buy because
they really care, and they're knowledgable and we need to meet
expectations by being smarter than they are.  That's our task--give them
what they don't already know at a level that's suitable for someone not
living their life for this, and not overwhelming them with the latest
from Bolivia. 

Corporations want information.  If you are a business, you look at this
because you have decisions to make and you have to make them quickly and
intelligently.  You appreciate analysis, but bombings in Khost don't
make you money.  You need things that make you money.  For that market,
we need a different range of products.  We need information as quickly
as possible about what happened--sitreps.  Third thing they want is
information. 

Stratfor must become the single stop for news and information about the
international scene.  That comes in three flavors:
1. Analysis we do now, among the most respected in the world. Barrons is
running an interview--they're using the interview for people to buy next
week's Barrons--interview with George Friedman on Russia.  We're using
them as a hook to PR us.  Circle jerk.  Crazy. People read Barrons to
make money.  People don't read us online to get money.  They may
benefit, but that's not why they buy.  Corporations only want to make
money.  Offer them analysis.  For gov't, CIA, Air Force, this is what
they want and they love it.  For corporations, it's useful for about 30
members of the team.  They want news before anyone else has it. 

In Iran, we discovered that the flow of global information has
collapsed.  Almost all newspapers were using one reformist website that
we tracked to a strip mall in Kirkland, Washington.  Point is that as
poor as our sources were, we had a clearer picture of what was happening
than the New York Times.  Their stories were from Beirut.  We were in. 
Our monitoring system, especially what we're developing with foreign
language sources, make us the only sources of systematic information
that we're collecting in open source.  Add our own sources and the
relationship we're building with foreign press agencies, we are entering
systematically into relationships to share information.  They get to
reprint us, and they tell us the inside story.  We'll have one of the
finest flows of news.  If we sort this through various technologies to
suit the needs of various corporate customers, we will have the ability
to rapidly sort and deliver our information.
2. Stream of intelligence from Stick's shop

3. There are vast numbers of databases that are valuable for national
trade.  Example--IMF trade, UNCTAD.  All are available and unusable.  No
common platform, no interface.  Bob Merry at CQ created over 30
databases, most from third parties, particularly the USG where it's all
free, and make them available if you logon to CQ. International trade
data, military data, econ data, single integrated interface for a single
step to get the product. People will pay to be able to access it.  Our
value ad is the integration and database and added real time news and
superb analysis. 

Good part--I know how to do it and Bob knows how to sell it.  It's
exactly what he did at CQ.  Some of the work patterns will need to be
refined.  Some will need to change.  We're looking at ways to right size
our offering to the consumer.  Right now, everyone has an idea of
something to write, but we may say don't write, read instead.  More time
for analysts to think, and less intel in the construct of articles. 
Hard to think if you also have to write, must step back from that. 

We also need to take the sitrep flow more seriously.  The tasking of
watch officers by analysts is extremely poor.  Must be done daily. 
Information given to watch officers about sites is poor. Sitreps come
out and disappear, regardless of their importance.  Some need to be
stirepped, some need to be shortrepped.  Some analysis should be short,
some long.  All a question of restructuring what we offer.  We'll start
with the consumer.  Prepare ourselves for what we'll offer the
institutional market.

Bob is going to take a few months to build and design the sales and
marketing team.  Take a good look at IT platform and so on.  I'm
starting now to restructure analysis and not so much as an organization
but in terms of mindset and skills. The net assessment program was one
of them.  We talk about net assessments as well as every week talking to
you about business or processes or a skill to learn or what have you. 
We can't grow unless we learn to train and mentor.  We can't hire from
the outside.  That can't be done.  Our training and mentoring skills are
critical.  All of this is in anticipation of opening to new markets that
we haven't served extensively and also producing a better product for
the consumer.  The more effective we are, the more money we make, the
more we reinvest and get raises and other things you're interested in. 

That's where we are.  Bob is working with people in sales and marketing,
who are now walking around with daised looks on their faces.  He is very
demanding, as I am, and I'm sitting here, going back to the beginning. 
I'm going back to basics to make sure we're all on the same page.

That' sthe business model to attack the consumer and corporate markets. 
That breaks the rules--you're only supposed to do one.  But in this
case, the leveragability of the product and process makes sense.  Grant
Perry really understands consumer product, and Bob Merry understands the
corporate situation.  Because we have the skills and visibility, we have
a benchmark to launch off of. 
","2010-01-12 00:04:54",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5361076_gf-notes-100111-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","anya.alfano@stratfor.com",""
5361084,"Re: fyi
","Not that I can find.

On 1/12/2010 1:44 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
> No Anderson Castles?
>
> Anya Alfano wrote:
>   
>> There are apparently more than 70 castles in Aberdeenshire--at least 16
>> of them are currently tourist attractions.  Balmoral, the Queen's place,
>> is one of them, but most of the rest are much more modest. 
>>
>> On 1/12/2010 1:20 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
>>     
>>> May also be cover for illness weight loss?
>>>
>>> ------Original Message------
>>> From: Anya Alfano
>>> To: Fred Burton
>>> Cc: 'korena zucha'
>>> Cc: Scott Stewart
>>> Subject: Re: fyi
>>> Sent: Jan 12, 2010 12:18 PM
>>>
>>> Will look around for a castle. 
>>>
>>> The 40 pounds story fits the attention seeking patterns of behavior. 
>>> \"Poor Lauren, her fiance told her she has to lose weight....\"
>>>
>>> On 1/12/2010 1:12 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
>>>   
>>>       
>>>> See what you can find in that town.  She claimed marriage in a castle to me.  I've asked R for more data.  
>>>>
>>>> Also, she told Susan that the Lord demanded she loose 40 pounds before the wedding...
>>>>
>>>> ------Original Message------
>>>> From: Anya Alfano
>>>> To: Fred Burton
>>>> Cc: 'korena zucha'
>>>> Cc: Scott Stewart
>>>> Subject: Re: fyi
>>>> Sent: Jan 12, 2010 12:03 PM
>>>>
>>>> Has gf sent her away from the week so she can't be confronted while
>>>> Stick is in town? 
>>>>
>>>> Church wedding?  The UK has a lot of regulations about foreigners
>>>> getting married, including church weddings.
>>>>
>>>> On 1/12/2010 12:53 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
>>>>   
>>>>     
>>>>         
>>>>> Aberdineshire, Scotland
>>>>>
>>>>> On Jan 12, 2010, at 11:24 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>   
>>>>>     
>>>>>       
>>>>>           
>>>>>>> Do you know the exact location the wedding is supposed to be held?
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Reva Bhalla wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>       
>>>>>>>         
>>>>>>>           
>>>>>>>               
>>>> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>>>>   
>>>>     
>>>>         
>>> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>>>       
","2010-01-12 19:47:03",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5361084_re-fyi-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5364701,"Business Proposal
","   Greetings George Friedman,

   My name is Steven Taylor, and I would like to discuss a business
   opportunity that offers the potential for considerable earnings.

   I work for a privately held manufacturing company, which currently
   purchases a product vital to its processing operations at a price
   significantly above the manufacturing cost. In my proposed business
   venture, you would assume the role of stand-in supplier, providing this
   key material while retaining the same profit margins. My role would be to
   introduce you to my company as the supplier and to obtain a contract
   between you and my employer.

   I understand that your experience with Strategic Forecasting Inc does not
   directly relate to my field. However, this venture is more in line with
   your personal capabilities rather than your professional experience.

   I would like to confirm your current phone number . Please send a return
   email to verify your contact number and to schedule the most convenient
   time to discuss these possibilities in detail. I look forward to speaking
   with you soon.

   Kindest Regards,
   Steven Taylor
","2011-12-05 17:01:56",1,"2012-06-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5364701_business-proposal-.html","s.taylor@inbox.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com",""
5368282,"IMPORTANT IMPORTANT
","   Colleagues:
    
   Note the report below.
    
   Does this check out?
    
   If so, please pay this guy well and immediately for this, and let's get
   him on board.
    
   He will follow up with a report on the recent Damascus bombing.  He wants
   to be paid for that also.
    
   Tony
   ----- Original Message -----
   From: bILAl reda
   To: atsullivan4321@comcast.net
   Sent: Saturday, December 18, 2004 6:18 PM
   Subject: Hello Tony Sullivan
   Syria must jettison 'hide-all' strategy
   By Ziad Haydar
   Special to The Daily Star
   Thursday, December 16, 2004
   Hello Tony, atsullivan4321@comcast.net  
   To proceed our previous conversation for stratfor request, I knew from
   very confident sources
    in Syria inside the Ba'th party that the party leadership is planning to
   Islamize the party
    to give the regime some Islamic and popular legitimacy on one hand, and
   to absorb the
    ascendence of the fundamentalist Islamism in Syria on the other hand, the
   vice-president
    Abdul-halim Khadam is leading this process which is very new and in its
   first step of
   planning. This info is very new and secret and this process is similar of
   what Saddam
    Hussein has done after the Gulf war when he brought the Wahabbi Salafi
   groups to Iraq
    to islamize the society in front of the Shi'ism in Iraq and later brought
   Abu Mus'ab
    al-Zarqawi and the Islamist fighters to fight the coalition forces.
   Please let's our
    correspondence be at this email and using my nickname on the bottom.
   All the best,
   Bilal,
   Now you can pursue the article :)
   Several months ago, while on a trip to several European countries, I had
   the opportunity of meeting a good number of Syrians and Arabs living
   abroad.
   Among the amazing questions I was asked, both as a Syrian and journalist
   living in Damascus, was whether the Mazzeh incidents were staged or real -
   in reference to the event that took place in that neighborhood of Damascus
   last April. An outbreak of gunfire resulted in the death of several
   people, and the detention of the alleged perpetrators. According to
   official reports, the incident was not the work of any political
   organization. The important point here, however, was not the incident
   itself, but rather the way Syrians living abroad perceived it. No one
   seemed to believe what official sources had said about what had happened. 
   Here is another example: When the Israeli Air Force bombed the area of Ain
   al-Saheb in October 2003, targeting a Palestinian refugee camp abandoned a
   year earlier, Israel television showed footage of fighters training in a
   facility to indicate that these were actual Palestinian fighters in the
   Ain al-Saheb camp. For those who saw the footage, its shortcomings were
   obvious as the pictures probably dated from the early 1980's. What was
   important though was that the Syrian authorities from the outset prevented
   anyone from getting close to the site and only offered an official
   explanation about the attack after a considerable delay. The Syrian
   ambassador in Spain, however, did speak about the incident, promising
   there would be an appropriate Syrian response. The Syrian Foreign Ministry
   hastened to deny that any official Syrian response had been given, only to
   issue words similar to the ambassador's eight days later.
   Meanwhile, not a single camera was allowed at the Ain al-Saheb location to
   record the aftermath of the attack, although it had taken place near a
   residential area. The official response was that \"Syria has credibility\"
   and, therefore, Western journalists on its territory should rely on that
   to answer their networks' questions about the camp and the results of the
   bombardment. Within this context, we can ask: Why doesn't the Syrian state
   ever test its credibility in the eyes of others?
   When the former Hamas official, Izzeddin Sheikh Khalil, was assassinated
   in Damascus approximately three months ago, a colleague from the BBC got
   in touch with me to say that rumors were circulating in Lebanon to the
   effect that Syria was behind the incident. The gist of the matter here is
   that the finger of accusation still pointed to Syria, even when it was the
   victim. And painful as it may be to say so, the Syrians themselves are
   often to blame for this.
   Why is this so? Why are the Syrians authorities rarely believed? The
   answer to such questions is easy, though we at the same time reject its
   implications. The reason is that in the past four years, successive Syrian
   information ministers have asked it without seeing the wisdom of analyzing
   the situation on the ground and gaining in-depth knowledge of journalistic
   ethics and of how journalists work. 
   When the Mazzeh incident took place, journalists complained of not being
   able to use their mobile telephones to report on what had taken place,
   since the mobile network virtually broke down. In addition, the
   neighborhood was entirely surrounded by police, there was a total
   information blackout, and for the first few hours after the incident, no
   official source could be reached. After the incident was over, when
   journalists finally were allowed to enter the area, the director of one
   news organization was attacked by a group of students (were they really
   students?) who accused him of being a spy and demanded that he be put on
   trial for wanting to damage Syria's image. The man's car was willfully
   damaged, until he managed to calm the crowd down and take their picture as
   they hailed the president.
   These were the first pictures of the incident out of Syria and, later on,
   Syrian television aired pictures of a weapons cache found in the area, but
   not before several hours had already elapsed. By that time, Israeli media
   had already reached the ears of the world and presented their own version
   of events. The confusion among the ranks of Syrian officials meant that
   they had lost a golden opportunity to tell their side of the story. When,
   a month later, the official results of the investigation were announced,
   they were unimpressive and redundant. Tardiness, bad timing and poor
   crisis mismanagement harm Syria's image internationally. The methods
   displayed by officials are liable on their own, even if unwittingly, to
   profoundly affect the image of any country.
   Syria still deals with many issues in an unjustifiably and
   incomprehensibly secretive manner. Syria's border police still look
   suspiciously at those entering or leaving the country and the word
   \"forbidden\" is the term most often on the mind of civil servants, whether
   civilian or military. Journalists are repeatedly told that it is
   \"forbidden\" to take pictures, \"forbidden\" to ask questions and sometimes
   even \"forbidden\" to be where the action is. And, if by chance
   representatives of the state are patient enough to hear people's
   complaints against what is \"forbidden,\" their fallback answer to this is
   \"we received no instructions to take action.\"
   As a further example of the difficulties faced by media, Syrian television
   monopolizes all unlicensed satellite transmissions, except in very rare
   cases. Added to that are the difficulties foreign reporters face when
   asking for a Syrian visa and when trying to extend their stay in the
   country. That's aside from the fact that their electronic equipment is
   impounded at Damascus airport and that they are constantly shadowed by an
   Information Ministry employee (allegedly there to assist them). The Syrian
   authorities behave as if they have more to hide than to share. 
   It is incumbent upon every Arab and foreign journalist, at least those who
   want to describe the reality in Syria to the outside world, to inform
   Syrian government officials that if they behave as if they have something
   to hide, this will only allow journalists to imagine the worst about what
   it is they are hiding. Even if an official is only trying to hide a tear
   in his suit, a journalist will imagine that he is concealing a bomb under
   his desk. Perhaps a bomb that might go off if that official ever speaks
   the truth.
   Ziad Haydar is a Damascus-based Syrian journalist. He wrote this
   commentary for THE DAILY STAR
    

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   Do you Yahoo!?
   Yahoo! Mail - Easier than ever with enhanced search. Learn more.
","2004-12-19 00:34:17",1,"2012-03-15 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5368282_important-important-.html","atsullivan4321@comcast.net","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,moore@stratfor.com,harshey@stratfor.com",""
5377822,"Re: [Fwd: BLB]
","So the boy also owns a BMW M3 convertible with no lien?  I'll check the
dead people.

On 1/5/2010 11:14 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
","2010-01-05 17:20:33",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5377822_re-fwd-blb-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5378515,"Re: Things are clearing up
","Works for me.

On 1/13/2010 1:43 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
> stick has forwarded me a few of the emails.  wow.  it all fits now.  can
> we talk at say 2?
>
> Anya Alfano wrote:
>   
>> I've figured out a few things with some new email access...weight
>> issues, scars, cancer, BB, etc.  Can we discuss on the phone again? 
>>     
","2010-01-13 19:46:33",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5378515_re-things-are-clearing-up-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5390481,"Re: xxx
","Would he be willing to give us the names of drugs and doses?  It's
possible she's on chemo for reasons that have nothing to do with cancer
and might not kill her. 

Regardless, let's assume she's dying--that still doesn't justify her
behavior. 

On 1/8/2010 2:38 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
> G claims he knows she is also on chemo; How I don't know.
>
> scott stewart wrote:
>   
>> Could have had an appendectomy. 
>>
>> Remember that crazy imposter in Israel who wanted to kill Baker? Had an
>> emergency appendectomy and told Kahane Chai that he had been stabbed by an
>> Arab and needed the surgery because of that.  
>>
>> -
>>
>>     
","2010-01-08 20:42:54",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5390481_re-xxx-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5391201,"Re: [Fwd: [Whips] Lauren out thru Sun]
","   The messages she sent earlier this morning were sent using an Austin Road
   Runner residential connection. 

   On 1/21/2010 2:34 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: [Whips] Lauren out thru Sun                                    
         Date: Thu, 21 Jan 2010 13:28:37 -0600                                
         From: Lauren Goodrich <goodrich@stratfor.com>                        
     Reply-To: Whips List <whips@stratfor.com>                                
           To: EurAsia AOR <eurasia@stratfor.com>, Whips List                 
               <whips@stratfor.com>                                           

     I have my cell & laptop.
     I'll be on a plane from 2-9 cst & then Sat 8pm-3am
     Viva la France.
     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
     --
     Korena Zucha
     Briefer
     STRATFOR
     Office: 512-744-4082
     Fax: 512-744-4334
     Zucha@stratfor.com
","2010-01-21 20:36:41",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5391201_re-fwd-whips-lauren-out-thru-sun-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,alfano@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,zucha@stratfor.com",""
5410254,"RE: Story
","   Bilal,
    
   We have known for some time that he is dead.  I doubt you will find anyone
   willing to reward you for the details of his death but you never know...I
   do wish you the best.  As for Stratfor I have explained how we do business
   here and I am sorry it does not work for you.  Unfortunately you are a
   new source and I won't invest money in a unknown/unproven source. 
    
   Your future situation is as it has always been concerning Stratfor.  Once
   it has been determined that you have provided legitimate information that
   was difficult or impossible for us to get anywhere else, you begin your
   personal history with us.  I do not even seriously consider compensation
   until that has occurred.  
    
   I look forward to reviewing any information you have to submit at some
   future date.

   V/R Bob Rushing

     -----Original Message-----
     From: Bilalkinguk [mailto:bilalkinguk@yahoo.co.uk]
     Sent: Monday, January 17, 2005 1:23 AM
     To: tony; Bob Rushing
     Subject: Story

     I understand, but I am afraid if I give them my info about the story
     they would claim that they had this info as they said for the first
     story. I can tell them just one thing about that man, he has been
     killed. I will not give  more details before I know my reward and my
     future situation.
     Best
     Bilal

     tony <atsullivan4321@comcast.net> wrote:

       THey simply cannot do that until you have A:READY establidhed a
       credible
       record. I have already asked.

       As I told you before, they do not yet believe that the story you
       mention is
       credible. As I said before. That is the simple fact of the matter.

       ----- Original Message -----
       From: \"Bilalkinguk\"
       To: \"tony\"
       Sent: Sunday, January 16, 2005 2:36 PM
       Subject: Travel

       > Thanks, I think if they are interested in that story
       > they should pay my travel expenses asap to come there
       > and provide it to them.
       > Bilal
       >>
       >> I think now we are finally getting everything
       >> together.
       >>
       >> Hussein
       >> ----- Original Message -----
       >> From: \"Bilalkinguk\"
       >> To: \"tony\"
       >> Sent: Sunday, January 16, 2005 11:37 AM
       >> Subject: Re: Reminder
       >>
       >>
       >> > Let's stay in touch through this email address.
       >> >> From: \"Bilalkinguk\"
       >> >> To: \"tony\"
       >> >> Sent: Monday, January 10, 2005 12:40 PM
       >> >> Subject: Re: Reminder
       >> >>
       >> >>
       >> >> > Okay looking forward to hear from you later
       >> today.
       >> >> >
       >> >>
       >> >
       >>
       > ___________________________________________________________
       >> >> >> > ALL-NEW Yahoo! Messenger - all new features
       >> -
       >> >> even
       >> >> >> more fun!
       >> >> >> > http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com
       >> >> >> >
       >> >> >>
       >> >> >>
       >> >> >>
       >> >> >
       >> >> >
       >> >> >
       >> >> >
       >> >> >
       >> >> >
       >> >>
       >> >
       >>
       > ___________________________________________________________
       >> >> > ALL-NEW Yahoo! Messenger - all new features -
       >> even
       >> >> more fun!
       >> >> > http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com
       >> >> >
       >> >>
       >> >>
       >> >>
       >> >
       >> >
       >> >
       >> >
       >> >
       >> >
       >>
       > ___________________________________________________________
       >> > ALL-NEW Yahoo! Messenger - all new features - even
       >> more fun!
       >> > http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com
       >> >
       >>
       >>
       >>
       >
       >
       >
       >
       > __________________________________
       > Do you Yahoo!?
       > Yahoo! Mail - now with 250MB free storage. Learn more.
       > http://info.mail.yahoo.com/mail_250
       >

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     Do you Yahoo!?
     Yahoo! Mail - Helps protect you from nasty viruses.
","2005-01-17 16:56:59",1,"2012-03-15 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5410254_re-story-.html","rushing@stratfor.com","","harshey@stratfor.com,atsullivan4321@comcast.net,bilalkinguk@yahoo.co.uk",""
5410884,"RE: INSIGHT -RUSSIA - head of MAJOR criminal group arrested... + chaika craziness
","   Can you get more granular data on the safe room construction?
    
   Also, what MNC's or industries could be affected by this move?
    
   If this OC figure controls the ports (per Peter), what kinds of kickbacks
   could be taking place with outbound containers? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Tuesday, September 04, 2007 6:11 AM
   To: 'Lauren Goodrich'; 'Secure List'; 'EurAsia Team'; 'George Friedman';
   'scott stewart'
   Subject: RE: INSIGHT -RUSSIA - head of MAJOR criminal group arrested... +
   chaika craziness
   What kind of crime did he control? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Monday, September 03, 2007 10:50 PM
   To: 'Secure List'; 'EurAsia Team'; George Friedman; Fred Burton; scott
   stewart
   Subject: INSIGHT -RUSSIA - head of MAJOR criminal group arrested... +
   chaika craziness
   [**more coming on all of this, I could only chat briefly with Chaika...
   pls keep the fact that he gave us this info under wraps, but we can use
   the info other than that]
   I'm leaning towards the fact that Putin is really cracking down on any
   power player that doesn't play in his arena... and that the Tambov Clan
   was soooo powerful and didn't listen to Putin as much as he wanted. This
   is a HUGE nab for Chaika (congrats to him)... also a good note for Chaika
   to leave on (he's quitting the Kremlin, so he says... and that is
   classified info for the next week until I get the green light to go
   forward on that huge Kremlin re-shuffle)
   TAMBOV CRIMINAL GROUP
    
   The head of the Tambov Criminal Group Vladimir Barsukov was arrested on
   this past week by the Prosecutor General Chaika's group. Barsukov, also
   known as Kumarin, based his group out of St. Petersburg.
    
   He has many old friends within the inner circle, especially Alexei
   Mordashov (Severstal) and Vladimir Yakunin (railways minister). Barsurkov
   was a person that many in Russia tolerated because of his connections and
   the fact that he was in charge of the highly powerful Tambov gang. But
   Putin considered him a relic of a by-gone era and was eager to get rid of
   him, though he was instrumental during Putin's earlier years. Putin
   himself was \"familiar\" with Barsukov when he worked in the St. Petersburg
   mayoral office.
    
   The entire operation to bring him down was orchestrated by Chaika along
   with FSB head Nikolai Patrushev and Interior Min Rashid Nurgaliev, though
   many tried to stop him-especially Yakunin and Mordashov. [sidenote:
   Yakunin and Chaika have never been close and after the last attack on the
   train from Moscow to St. Petersburg, the security forces turned to Chaika,
   not Yakunin, for information and cooperation.]
    
   Barsukov was in a safe room and it took hours to pry him open from his
   home. They had a huge amount of OMAN police forces with them, knowing that
   this could have become really gross really fast.
    
   One of the breaking points was the fact that Barsukov wanted to gain
   control over many oil infrastructure assets in St. Petersburg... Chaika
   said that this was shocking because no real criminal organizations dare to
   take claim on energy infrastructure. The joke Chaika said was, \"they may
   be crime bosses, but they don't want to mess with Surkov, Sechin,
   Bogdanchikov or others or else they may learn what real pressure and
   tactics looks like.\"
    
   The arrest of Barsurkov is expected to create a few repercussions... 1)
   there will be a power struggle within the Tambov clan [I need to break
   down what they control, can the CT team help?] 2) Chaika and others expect
   atleast some retaliation, though they feel confident in their infiltration
   of the organization to head most of it off 3) Yakunin and Mordashov will
   really be after Chaika, Nurgaliev and Patrushev... Chaika isn't too
   worried about this, but says that Yakunin is really petty about
   retaliation.
    
   OTHER ISSUES...
    
   Chaika said he has already been under a lot of heat because of the
   Politkovskaya arrests. He said that he would rather not tell me about the
   \"Chechen mastermind\" they arrested. I asked if this was because he was not
   really a mastermind and Chaika said that \"many things needed to be tied up
   as we head into this election and the end of Putin's reign.\" [I know this
   is strange, but he kept saying things like, \"Ivanov needs to have control
   over the situation he's about to enter into.... Ivanov is known for his
   distance from such situations, so they need to be wrapped up.\"]
","2007-09-04 17:07:05",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5410884_re-insight-russia-head-of-major-criminal-group-arrested.html","burton@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,burton@stratfor.com,goodrich@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,eurasia@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
5411148,"Re: INSIGHT -RUSSIA - head of MAJOR criminal group arrested... +
 chaika craziness
","   Underground fuel trade...
   I just have a bad feeling on this.
   But if the FSB is planning on really locking down St. Petes to make sure a
   full-on mob war doesn't break out this could get be interesting.
   Eurasia team is breaking down more on the Tambov Clan and I'm working on a
   few more sources.

   Fred Burton wrote:

     What kind of crime did he control? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Monday, September 03, 2007 10:50 PM
     To: 'Secure List'; 'EurAsia Team'; George Friedman; Fred Burton; scott
     stewart
     Subject: INSIGHT -RUSSIA - head of MAJOR criminal group arrested... +
     chaika craziness
     [**more coming on all of this, I could only chat briefly with Chaika...
     pls keep the fact that he gave us this info under wraps, but we can use
     the info other than that]
     I'm leaning towards the fact that Putin is really cracking down on any
     power player that doesn't play in his arena... and that the Tambov Clan
     was soooo powerful and didn't listen to Putin as much as he wanted. This
     is a HUGE nab for Chaika (congrats to him)... also a good note for
     Chaika to leave on (he's quitting the Kremlin, so he says... and that is
     classified info for the next week until I get the green light to go
     forward on that huge Kremlin re-shuffle)
     TAMBOV CRIMINAL GROUP
      
     The head of the Tambov Criminal Group Vladimir Barsukov was arrested on
     this past week by the Prosecutor General Chaika's group. Barsukov, also
     known as Kumarin, based his group out of St. Petersburg.
      
     He has many old friends within the inner circle, especially Alexei
     Mordashov (Severstal) and Vladimir Yakunin (railways minister).
     Barsurkov was a person that many in Russia tolerated because of his
     connections and the fact that he was in charge of the highly powerful
     Tambov gang. But Putin considered him a relic of a by-gone era and was
     eager to get rid of him, though he was instrumental during Putin's
     earlier years. Putin himself was \"familiar\" with Barsukov when he worked
     in the St. Petersburg mayoral office.
      
     The entire operation to bring him down was orchestrated by Chaika along
     with FSB head Nikolai Patrushev and Interior Min Rashid Nurgaliev,
     though many tried to stop him-especially Yakunin and Mordashov.
     [sidenote: Yakunin and Chaika have never been close and after the last
     attack on the train from Moscow to St. Petersburg, the security forces
     turned to Chaika, not Yakunin, for information and cooperation.]
      
     Barsukov was in a safe room and it took hours to pry him open from his
     home. They had a huge amount of OMAN police forces with them, knowing
     that this could have become really gross really fast.
      
     One of the breaking points was the fact that Barsukov wanted to gain
     control over many oil infrastructure assets in St. Petersburg... Chaika
     said that this was shocking because no real criminal organizations dare
     to take claim on energy infrastructure. The joke Chaika said was, \"they
     may be crime bosses, but they don't want to mess with Surkov, Sechin,
     Bogdanchikov or others or else they may learn what real pressure and
     tactics looks like.\"
      
     The arrest of Barsurkov is expected to create a few repercussions... 1)
     there will be a power struggle within the Tambov clan [I need to break
     down what they control, can the CT team help?] 2) Chaika and others
     expect atleast some retaliation, though they feel confident in their
     infiltration of the organization to head most of it off 3) Yakunin and
     Mordashov will really be after Chaika, Nurgaliev and Patrushev... Chaika
     isn't too worried about this, but says that Yakunin is really petty
     about retaliation.
      
     OTHER ISSUES...
      
     Chaika said he has already been under a lot of heat because of the
     Politkovskaya arrests. He said that he would rather not tell me about
     the \"Chechen mastermind\" they arrested. I asked if this was because he
     was not really a mastermind and Chaika said that \"many things needed to
     be tied up as we head into this election and the end of Putin's reign.\"
     [I know this is strange, but he kept saying things like, \"Ivanov needs
     to have control over the situation he's about to enter into.... Ivanov
     is known for his distance from such situations, so they need to be
     wrapped up.\"]
","2007-09-04 15:56:37",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5411148_re-insight-russia-head-of-major-criminal-group-arrested.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,eurasia@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
5411655,"Re: Lauren's Moscow Trip
","   Here is my tentative list, though I'm still adding more...

   Yuri Chaika - Prosecutor General
   Oleg Deripaska - oligarch & head of Rusal
   Vladislav Surkov - aid to Medvedev
   Marina and Viktor Kalashnikov - dissidents
   Ellen Pinchuk - Bloomberg head
   Brad Cook - Bloomberg chief
   Alex Berezin - RIA Novosti
   Crystal Stutes - US Embassy Political Section
   David Falcon- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi
   Alexander Bogachyov - Bke Drilling
   Vladimir Drebentsov - BP Russia
   Talgat Turumbaev - Bank Kazakhstan
   Alina Shlykova - ExxonMobil Russia
   Dimitiy Semenov - Gazprom
   Sergei Kupriyanov - Gazprom Information
   Alexander Bespalov - Gazprom
   Steven Dashevsky - Aton Capital
   Vladimir Katunin - Aton Capital
   Anton Khlopkov - PIR Analysis
   Nakita Sergeyev - Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (thinktank)
   Valeri Pervukhin - Institute of Energy Strategy (thinktank)
   Andrei Kuprov - Mitsui
   Fernando Martinez Fresneda Moreno - Repsol
   Roman Shkoller - Russia Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs
   Anatoli Gubarev - Shtokman Development
   Gennady Zaitsev - Sakhalin Development
   Bayramgeldy Nedirov - Turkmen Energy Ministry

   Fred Burton wrote:

     Do you have a list of people you are meeting with just in case? :)

     -----Original Message-----
     From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Monday, December 01, 2008 10:53 AM
     To: Fred Burton
     Subject: Re: Lauren's Moscow Trip

     Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       Trip: Dec 6-13
       _Flight to Moscow on Dec 6-7: _
       Austin-Atlanta #5860 - 1049am-155pm
       Atlanta-Moscow #46 - 440pm- 1120am (Sunday) _Flight from Moscow Dec
       13:_
       Moscow- Atlanta #47 - 110pm-505pm
       Atlanta-Austin #1891 - 653pm-830pm

       _Hotel_: Kempinski hotel on Red Square

       My Cell # - 281.460.9382
       My Skype # - 281.968.0499 (has voicemail) My Skype name - l-goodrich

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-12-01 18:16:58",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5411655_re-lauren-s-moscow-trip-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,zeihan@stratfor.com,goodrich@stratfor.com",""
5412158,"Re: Happy Holidays
","   Hey Izabella!
   You are actually free to take what you want over the holidays between now
   and the new year...
   but the 'for sure' days off are Dec 25-26 & Jan 1-2.
   Just let us know what you want to take off and we'll work around it.
   Please take off that time in Jan & Feb to see your husband!! Send him our
   love and we are so glad he is safe and able to come home. Enjoy your time
   together!
   I am in Scotland right now (my fiance's christmas) and my christmas is in
   Jan during the orthodox ones, when I'll spend them with my own family.
   Have a wonderful holidays.
   Lauren

   Izabella Sami wrote:

     Hi Lauren,
      
     Hope all is well and you are looking forward to a nice rest during the
     coming holidays.
     There are a few things I would like to ask you before you guys 'shut
     down':
      
     1. What are the non-working days for Strafor (Dec 24/25 and Jan 1..)?
      
     2. I will be visiting my mother in Budapest from Dec 24 to Jan 03 but
     will be able to work as usual.
      
     3. From January 10  to February 10 I will be in the U.S. and Canada, due
     to family affairs. I live alone in Skopje, while my husband is working
     for the US government for some time now (in Kabul for the past two
     years) and he has some meetings in Washington D.C., then he will be free
     - on holiday - and our daughter is getting married in San Francisco, so
     we will be there from 14 to 28 January; then off to Toronto to take care
     of our nephews fro two weeks (their grandma will be away).
     Unfortunately I will not be able to work, but will be able to follow
     more or less what is going on in the world.
     Hope this is all right with you and will not cause any significant
     problem...
      
     Pls let me know.
      
     Wishing you and the entire team happy holidays!
      
     Cheers,
      
     Izabella

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-12-22 06:08:29",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5412158_re-happy-holidays-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com,zsami@telekabel.net.mk",""
5413843,"Public Policy Question for Coca-Cola
","   Coca-Cola just sent me a long list of questions regarding PETA/Animal
   Activism and the upcoming Olympics in Vancouver--I've pasted the questions
   below.  I'm not entirely clear on how much we can task the public policy
   group at this point--is there any guidance you can give me on that front? 
   Coke has asked for a short teleconference with one of our analysts to
   discuss this issue--is that something I could ask Kathy, Bart or Joe to
   do, or would that be off the table at this point?  Stick, are these
   questions something that you have a handle on, if we aren't able to get
   info from the policy folks? 

   Any thoughts or guidance would be helpful. Thanks, Anya

   Questions---
   -- How many PETA supporters are there in Canada?
   -- How many of these are inclined toward activism?
   -- To what extent will US-based PETA supporters travel to Canada to
   support activism?
   -- What is PETA's methodology for planning and executing activism?
    (Understanding this better would certainly help us to recognize
   indicators should they appear.)
   -- To what extent is PETA in Canada linked to PETA in the US or elsewhere?
   -- To what extent are the actions of PETA in one country controlled by an
   oversight board/governing body?
   -- To what extent could non-PETA hangers-on (such as anarchists or ALF
   supporters) get involved in any protest activity?
","2009-06-02 16:56:13",1,"2012-02-27 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5413843_public-policy-question-for-coca-cola-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com",""
5413863,"Re: Public Policy Question for Coca-Cola
","   Stick, do you have access to email addresses?  I won't be able to get it
   until tomorrow.

   Bart and I talked and he's willing to help.  I put one of our interns on
   the search for details--Bart and I will discuss what our intern has
   collected on Thursday and decide if we need to do more research, or if the
   research and Bart's existing knowledge is enough to handle the request. 
   I'll keep you updated on how it turns out. 

   Fred Burton wrote:

     I know Flanagan, pls send me his email and I'll probe around. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Tuesday, June 02, 2009 1:50 PM
     To: Fred Burton
     Cc: 'scott stewart'
     Subject: Re: Public Policy Question for Coca-Cola
     Kevin Flanagan

     Fred Burton wrote:

       Who is RSO Ottawa?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Tuesday, June 02, 2009 9:56 AM
       To: Fred Burton; scott stewart
       Subject: Public Policy Question for Coca-Cola
       Coca-Cola just sent me a long list of questions regarding PETA/Animal
       Activism and the upcoming Olympics in Vancouver--I've pasted the
       questions below.  I'm not entirely clear on how much we can task the
       public policy group at this point--is there any guidance you can give
       me on that front?  Coke has asked for a short teleconference with one
       of our analysts to discuss this issue--is that something I could ask
       Kathy, Bart or Joe to do, or would that be off the table at this
       point?  Stick, are these questions something that you have a handle
       on, if we aren't able to get info from the policy folks? 

       Any thoughts or guidance would be helpful. Thanks, Anya

       Questions---
       -- How many PETA supporters are there in Canada?
       -- How many of these are inclined toward activism?
       -- To what extent will US-based PETA supporters travel to Canada to
       support activism?
       -- What is PETA's methodology for planning and executing activism?
        (Understanding this better would certainly help us to recognize
       indicators should they appear.)
       -- To what extent is PETA in Canada linked to PETA in the US or
       elsewhere?
       -- To what extent are the actions of PETA in one country controlled by
       an oversight board/governing body?
       -- To what extent could non-PETA hangers-on (such as anarchists or ALF
       supporters) get involved in any protest activity?
","2009-06-02 21:25:55",1,"2012-02-27 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5413863_re-public-policy-question-for-coca-cola-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com",""
5416134,"Re: [TACTICAL] Nigeria - U.S. grants 34 ex-Nigerian militants visasforprofessional
 training
","   Our country doesn't seem to care that actions have long-term
   consequences. 

   On 4/14/11 8:36 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

     Obama..its a black thing

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
     Date: Thu, 14 Apr 2011 07:35:07 -0500 (CDT)
     To: <burton@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: [TACTICAL] Nigeria - U.S. grants 34 ex-Nigerian militants
     visas forprofessional training
     Kamran can't come in the country, but 34 militants who've spent their
     lives blowing up pipelines, stealing fuel and carrying out political
     assassinations are welcome, so we can entrust Nigeria's future to them. 
     Killing me. 

     On 4/14/11 8:31 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:

       Brilliant

       Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
       Sender: tactical-bounces@stratfor.com
       Date: Thu, 14 Apr 2011 07:20:48 -0500 (CDT)
       To: 'TACTICAL'<tactical@stratfor.com>
       ReplyTo: Tactical <tactical@stratfor.com>
       Subject: [TACTICAL] Nigeria - U.S. grants 34 ex-Nigerian militants
       visas for professional training
       Just FYI, and a little bit of wow.

       -------- Original Message --------

        Subject: [OS] NIGERIA/US/GV/CT - U.S. grants 34 ex-Nigerian militants 
                 visas for professional training                              
           Date: Thu, 14 Apr 2011 07:10:34 -0500                              
           From: Clint Richards <clint.richards@stratfor.com>                 
       Reply-To: The OS List <os@stratfor.com>                                
             To: The OS List <os@stratfor.com>                                

       U.S. grants 34 ex-Nigerian militants visas for professional training
       English.news.cn   2011-04-14 18:24:05     FeedbackPrintRSS
       http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-04/14/c_13829127.htm

       ABUJA, April 14 (Xinhua) -- The U.S. Embassy in Nigeria has issued
       visas to 34 former Niger Delta militants to study courses related to
       oil and gas and engineering, an official has said.

       Kingsley Kuku, the special assistant to the president on Niger Delta
       affairs, said in Abuja on Wednesday at a meeting with the former
       militants from the region that some 4,000 militants had benefited from
       the various training programs since the government gave them amnesty.

       The Nigerian government, under the late Musa Yar'Adua proclaimed
       amnesty for the militants in 2009 in which 20,192 of them surrendered
       their arms.

       He said the 34 selected former militants would leave for the U.
       S.shortly after the general elections.

       Kuku said he was meeting with the former militants to inform them of
       the success so far recorded in the amnesty program.

       He said there had been a tremendous achievement in the implementation
       of the program which he said had boosted oil production in the area in
       recent times.

       The special assistant called on the former militants to regard the
       program as a rare opportunity for the people of the region in areas of
       training and various skills programs in the country and abroad.

       He urged them to support President Goodluck Jonathan in Saturday 's
       presidential election to sustain the program.
","2011-04-14 14:51:54",1,"2012-03-20 10:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5416134_re-tactical-nigeria-u-s-grants-34-ex-nigerian-militants.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
5417207,"New-tern (Aaron) reading list...
","","2009-03-04 17:07:12",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5417207_new-tern-aaron-reading-list-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","nathan.hughes@stratfor.com,eurasia@stratfor.com,kristen.cooper@stratfor.com,aaron.moore@stratfor.com","attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc
attach/174/174265_Team Eurasia 090302.xls
attach/174/174276_FSU Parliaments.doc
attach/174/174277_FSU sites.doc"
5417422,"INSIGHT - CHECHNYA - lots of scary shit....
","   **okay... I color coded as far as topic... green = inner Chechen shit ;
   purple =  scary Islam/Chechen shit ; blue = Western/bigger involvement????

   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circles, though from
   Surkov's clan.  He's the real deal.
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   Kadyrov's leash is too loose in most people's (including my) opinions. His
   list of assassinations outside of Chechnya is growing...
    
   -       Feb 5 - Gilani Shepiev - murdered with three bullets in his head
   as he returned home in the north-west of Moscow. a Baykal pistol with a
   silencer at the scene of the crime meaning that the killing was the work
   of a professional. Shepiev was well known in Chechnya. Having fought the
   Russian army during the first conflict in 1994-96, he joined A. Kadyrov as
   one of his bodyguards at the beginning of the century. He then became
   deputy mayor of Grozny where he was responsible for security. Seriously
   wounded during a settling of scores in 2006 he then stepped back even
   though officially he still counted among the leaders of the Chechen
   presidency's counter-terrorist unit.
   -       Jan 13 - Umar Israilov - (which we've discussed) was killed in
   Vienna
   -       Sept 24 - Ruslan Yamadaev - (which we've discussed) the \"Hero of
   Russia\" and former parliamentarian.
    
   All these men had in common the fact that they had both broken off with
   the R. Kadyrov, so their elimination does make sense to some extent.
    
   Except for the fact that in exchange for total freedom in Chechnya - with
   very generous subsidises - R. Kadyrov has known to keep Chechnya's
   problems and their possible violent solutions confined within the
   Republic. Moscow has kept a blind eye to the nature of the Kadyrov regime
   on the condition that Chechen would continue to keep its business to
   itself.
    
   The problem is that, after having granted Kadyrov everything he asked for
   -including the break-up of S. Yamadaev's Vostok battalion - the Kremlin
   has scarcely any control left over the master of Grozny. Kadyrov does
   still feel he has a commitment to both Putin and Surkov. But that
   commitment is being tested right now.
    
   Ever since Kadyrov opened that enormous mosque in Nov and then his trip to
   Saudi in December he has be acting very strange. It seems to the Kremlin
   powers that he is drifting towards an increasingly rigid form of Islam.
   This is seen in the ridiculous new liquor laws in Chechnya too. That mixed
   with his constant griping that he is not happy with his simple and small
   Russian territory (meaning he either wants independence or to be granted
   ruling over some of the other Caucasus states). Now the concerns are that
   Bukhari Barayev & Akhmed Zakayev could be returning to Chechnya.
    
   Barayev has visited Chechnya, but never stays long. Barayev does not have
   much power left inside of Chechnya from his former days, especially anyone
   inside of Chechnya linked to AQ (those types are pretty much wiped out by
   now), but he does still hold a few Taliban or AQ (we think) links inside
   ME and SA (Saudi and Afgh specifically). It is nothing like he had in the
   90s, but still a small concern. Barayev and Kadyrov have not gotten along
   in the past, especially since Kadyrov killed a bunch of Barayev's men (and
   family).
    
   Zakayev is another story, esp since he is on Russia's wanted list to be
   extradited from UK. But Zakayev has been chatting with many parties about
   reviving the militant movement within Chechnya. He has briefly (and
   secretly) chatted on the phone with Kadyrov. Zakayev has been in much
   contact with UK intelligence, which raises our suspicions.
    
   There is a concern about the US being behind such a resurgence of militant
   Islam in Chechnya. Putting the puzzle pieces together, the US has had the
   opportunity to influence Barayev, Zakayev and have Saudi chat with
   Kadyrov. We have always assumed that Kadyrov's subsidies for being loyal
   were enough, but those are now in question.
    
   At this time, we do not see a blowback from Afghanistan escalating the
   situation between the Chechens and the Russians, but we are considering
   the US escalating the situation should Russia not cooperate with their
   little schemes in Afghanistan.
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-02-18 06:44:08",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5417422_insight-chechnya-lots-of-scary-shit-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
5417564,"Sam Kent & Halliburton 
","   **for internal use only pls
    
   I had lunch yesterday in Houston with former-Federal Judge Sam Kent (the
   first Federal Judge found guilty of serious crimes in the US) and he told
   me why he thinks he was prosecuted.
    
   For those who haven't followed this, he was found guilty on perjury &
   sexual misconduct. Yes, he slept with those two women, but it was
   consensual. Actually, they were old affairs and long over.
    
   What Sam said was that \"isn't is strange that the Justice Department
   begins sniffing around for dirt to throw at me just weeks after I ruled a
   heavy case against Halliburton. Then a small set of affairs turn into an
   untrue situation and then spun up into an unprecedented case against a
   Federal Judge.\"  
    
   Of course, I told him he was nuts to rule anything against Halliburton.
   I also told him that this sounds like a John Grisham plotline.
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-03-08 22:11:04",1,"2012-02-27 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5417564_sam-kent-and-halliburton-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
5424835,"[Eurasia] EUROPE ANALYTICAL GUIDANCE - TIER 3
","","2009-06-19 00:30:29",1,"2012-02-28 18:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5424835_-eurasia-europe-analytical-guidance-tier-3-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com","eurasia@stratfor.com,nate.hughes@stratfor.com","attach/125/125073_EUROPE ANALYTICAL GUIDANCE - Third Tier.doc"
5426952,"Re: INSIGHT - CANVAS: On Iran
","   So no real answer on their particular involvement in Iran situation.

   Marko Papic wrote:

     I have translated the email that leader of CANVAS sent to me on Iran.
     Most of it is just his musings on the revolution. He gets into some
     pretty tactical thoughts at the end, about what the revolutionary
     movement must now evolve into in order to be effective. Remember, these
     guys are expert revolutionaries, so he is getting into some pretty
     theoretical stuff on what is needed.

     However, he has opened communication with us on this and has given me
     contacts of CANVAS's Middle East crew. He is asking for comments on his
     thoughts below and any questions we may have. So I am particularly
     forwarding this email to Reva and Kamran and want you guys to think of
     \"what now\" questions that I can send to CANVAS and their crew.

     PUBLICATION: If needed
     SOURCE: SR501
     ATTRIBUTION: N/A
     SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Founder/Leader CANVAS (Serbian NGO for revolution
     export... ex-OTPOR)
     SOURCE RELIABILITY: 4
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: A
     DISTRIBUTION: MESA
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Marko/Meredith

     Dear Marko,

     We had a series of meetings about the situation in Iran, while the
     revolution was going an and afterwards. I don't know what \"comrade\"
     Ackerman is doing in Bahrain, we have until now worked with Iranians in
     other places, mostly with women rights groups and legal professionals
     but also with emigres, so we have solid sources and our \"rough\" analysis
     would go something like this:

      

     -         If we place Iran in Serbian context than the 1992
     anti-Milosevic protests would be a much better parallel than the 96/97
     [MP: note... the 1992 protests COMPLETELY collapsed] simply because
     following the 1996 stolen elections the opposition managed to force
     Sloba in February 1997 to accept their win and get leadership in 30
     districts/cities, therefore gaining important material resources and
     learning what it took to lead government office, not to mention that it
     afforded the opposition \"space\" in local media which eventually turned
     to be crucial in 2000.

     -         From the view of \"Pillars of Support\", standpoint that
     Stratfor has already looked at in detail, the main crack has already
     happened in the most important pillar, and that is the Supreme Council.
     Although Moussavi and Rafsanjani have not (as the American media
     expected them to) stepped up when crackdown began, fearing on one part
     for their own safety, conflict and division between the two streams of
     thought are going to continue to simmer. As evidence of this we have the
     resignation of one of the ministers and negotiators for the nuclear
     program, probably the most vital point of Iranian foreign politics.

     -         On the foreign scene Iran is going into a defensive. On the
     regional level, Lebanese Hezbollah has decided to stay in opposition and
     is losing part of support of Iranian security apparatus, considering
     that most of the security apparatus is now concentrating internally.
     Will this lead to a long period of stability in Lebanon/Syria remains to
     be seen. A-Dog's foreign policy game in which the Cold War like role of
     Putin/Russians was to \"bring Iran to the table\" while US \"sells\" Central
     Europe and leaves Russia to strengthen in Georgia and Ukraine is now out
     the window. We also can't discount the effect that the regolution has
     had on American public opinion, particularly among the Democrats for
     whom Chavez and A-Dogg were in part \"robin hood\" characters that
     antagonized the Bush administration. Now, Democrats are unified
     following the revolution and blood shed behind the concept of supporting
     pro-democratic movements in Iran.

     -         As for the concept of Power in Numbers, A-Dog has a much
     slimmer pool of support following the revolution. The generation that is
     getting closer to voting is in this young nation now a post-Islamic
     Revolution generation and is obviously far less open to conservative and
     traditional influences.

     -         From the perspective of crystallizing of an anti-regime
     movement there are several aspects:

      1. Are the \"liberal demonstrators\" ready to demonstrate in unity and
         following nonviolent discipline?
      2. If number 1 is fulfilled are the demonstrators ready to go through
         the \"survival\" phase (low risk tactics like using symbols, colors,
         sms, virtual communication, ringtones, etc.) then following that the
         \"engagement phase\" (registrations, recruitment of members in low
         risk tactics, strategic planning) and \"engagement phase\" (building
         of campaigns towards common goals, commemorating anniversaries such
         as the death of Neda, until a hypothetic referendum as some sort of
         a goal.)

      

     Important answer to whether the movement is ready for this strategizing
     is also whether there is a build up of identity going on.

      

     I am putting my colleagues who work in Middle East and Iran and have
     contacts there (*****, ***** and ****) to cc of this email, as well as
     our long time friend ***** who works for Freedom House and who over some
     virtual channels was to us the most confident source until now.

      

     I hope this is useful for you... Hello from \"hellishly hot\" Belgrade,

      

     *****

      

      

      

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-07-28 14:00:12",1,"2012-06-18 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5426952_re-insight-canvas-on-iran-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,marko.papic@stratfor.com,kamran.bokhari@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
5427107,"Re: [Eurasia] [CT] DISCUSSION: Likely ETA attack in Mallorca
","   Stephen Meiners wrote:

     Any other thoughts on this?

     Ben West wrote:

       Authorities have shut closed ports and airports on the tourist island
       of Mallorca, Spain after an explosive device detonated under what is
       believed to be a police patrol vehicle outside a police station in
       Palmanova.  Two police officers were killed in the explosion and
       several others were injured. The explosion destroyed the vehicle,
       burning it out completely, but caused little damage to surrounding
       vehicles and buildings.  The attack occurred at 2pm, approximately 
       1/4 of a mile from the city's popular tourist beaches, during the
       islands peak tourist season, so civilians were certainly at risk from
       this attack, something that ETA tends to avoid. [tourists weren't
       really at risk though. based on previous attacks, it does not seem to
       be the case that they avoid this either. the potential for collateral
       damage has been present in almost every bomb attack they've carried
       out, and even more so in the ones they've done in other tourist hot
       spots. this was primarily an attack on police targets (keep in mind we
       don't know if the cops killed were involved in ETA investigations),
       though it is interesting that it occurred in a touristy town. then
       again, many places in Spain are touristy.]  I agree.... ETA avoide
       civilians for a short while as a test... they don't care much now...
       we've done pieces on that in the past few years...... ALSO, this
       wasn't hitting a totel, they hit a police station, which is an
       expected target   

        

       There have been no claims for the attack, but authorities suspect that
       Spanish separatist group, ETA is behind the attack.  While the group
       is primarily active in the north of Spain in Basqueland [do we really
       use the term Basqueland? I thought it was Basque country/region, or
       Euskadi?], the group has proven capable of striking outside this
       region before - most recently detonated a 200 kg car bomb in the city
       of Burgos, which is outside of traditional Basque territory. In August
       1995, authorities broke up an ETA plot to assassinate the Spanish King
       Juan Carlos with a rifle while the king was on his yacht. Other
       attacks in Madrid and Barcelona in recent years have established the
       fact that ETA's attacks are not constrained to Basqueland [though
       that's always been the case, especially going back to the 80s and 90s.
       I don't think it's ever been doubted that they have a capability and
       intent to carry out attacks outside of the Basque country. I think a
       more important point is that ETA targets cops all over Spain (both in
       Basque country and elswehere) but they're not likely to conduct
       attacks on civilian targets inside the Basque country].

        

       Targeting the patrol car outside the police station is also a very
       common targeting tactic by ETA and likely rules out the possibility
       that this attack was carried out by elements of Russian organized
       crime, (who have a heavy presence on Mallorca) as they typically limit
       their attacks to business disputes. [are we referring to Russian OC
       tactics in general, or in Mallorca specifically? do we have historical
       examples of Russian OC violence on Mallorca, particularly using IEDs?
       or have they not used IEDs there ever?]

        

       Targeting police personnel and facilities is a tactic commonly used by
       militant groups to undermine the mission of a police department to
       provide security.  The response to effectively shut down
       transportation to and from the island is likely to disrupt the tourist
       industry there - most likely the intention of the group behind this
       attack, despite the fact that the attack targeted a police station. 

        

       With a changing demographic and political climate in Basqueland,
       STRATFOR has noted that ETA, with less support in its Basque
       autonomous region, is likely to become more violent as it becomes more
       desperate. As Basque country overall grows more moderate, ETA will be
       left with only the most extreme members who could very well deviate
       from the common ETA practices of not targeting civilians, calling
       attacks in ahead of time and conducting attacks in the middle of the
       night when casualties are less likely.   Can we have a timeline of
       attacks over the past year by ETA? to show the uptick in the past few
       weeks?

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-07-30 18:49:14",1,"2012-08-06 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5427107_re-eurasia-ct-discussion-likely-eta-attack-in-mallorca-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","ct@stratfor.com,eurasia@stratfor.com",""
5431298,"Re: a piece on Russia
","   Very good article Veni!
   I am currently working on a series going through Russia's plans to change
   their economy and how it is going to fall out on the domestic side of
   politics (within Russia's clan war). We are also about to publish our 4th
   quarter forecast starting next week. I'll send you a copy of it when we
   do.
   Thanks,
   Lauren

   Veni Markovski wrote:

     Hi, Lauren.

     Thought you may be interested in reading this small piece of mine on
     Russia.

     Best,
     Veni

     If you are coming to DC, please, feel free to get in touch.

     *How soon is the next Chernobyl?*

     /Russia faces big hurdles and problems; it has no adequate partners in
     the west. Can we change this?
     Will the US support President Medvedev in his efforts to modernize the
     largest country on the planet?/

     In the last few weeks Russian President D.A. Medvedev made some news in
     the USA. First, on Sept. 10 he published on his site an article, \"Go,
     Russia!
     <http://eng.kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2009/09/10/1534_type104017_221527.shtml>\",
     five days later he gave an interview
     <http://eng.kremlin.ru/speeches/2009/09/20/1600_type82916_221730.shtml>
     to Fareed Zakaria for CNN. Both were discussed in length, many political
     observers are spending a lot of air time, trying to explain what Mr.
     Medvedev had in mind.

     Some people believe that Mr. Medvedev is genuine in his desire to
     improve Russia. Some are scared by the thought that Russia could be
     strong.

     *The West's fear should not be from a strong, but from a weak Russia* -
     engaged in local ethnic conflicts, attempting to maintain its current
     nuclear arsenal, and running the old and unsafe Soviet industry
     facilities. The tragic disaster at the Sayano-Shushenskaya hydroelectric
     plant in August 2009 should ring a bell not only in Russia, but all over
     the world. It is not a question if there will be another incident, but
     rather when it will happen. The Russian energy sector today suffers from
     unqualified staff, inadequate procedures for maintaining and running
     securely what was built 50 years ago. Chernobyl didn't happen by
     accident, it was a symbol of the whole /system/.

     My appeal to the US is, please, *do not give lectures to the Russians*!
     Give them access to the latest technologies, innovations, and education.
     This will allow Russia to update the old Soviet equipment; otherwise it
     is doomed to more, and perhaps, bigger catastrophes. The access to
     education will change the lives of the Russians much more than giving
     financial aid to the state.

     In order for this new, and perhaps last, effort to succeed, it requires
     not only support from the top - which can be negotiated between the
     presidents, but also support from the Russian citizens. The way to
     engage them, in my view, is through a system education.

     Russian education, which was considered among the best in the world, has
     lost its glory and much of its strength, but the Russians have not lost
     their desire and passion to learn. The US should create programs for
     establishing multi-level relations with Russian primary schools and
     universities, and should encourage not only technological transfer to
     Russia, but also students and educational program exchanges. Russians
     from schools throughout the country should be given the opportunity to
     join the western educational system. College, graduate, and
     post-graduate studies should involve much more Russians than today.

     Don't forget the population problems. Mr. Zakaria mentioned some of them
     - negative growth, massive usage of alcohol (although I question the
     accuracy of his data that more than 50 % of the death of Russians aged
     15-54 is due to alcohol abuse)... Not only is the Russian population
     diminishing, the average Russian male's life expectancy is at a
     stunningly low 61.8 years (compare to Canada - 78.6, USA - 75.6). 
     Then, there's the lack of a well established civil society. Being
     Bulgarian, this is very, very close to me - my own people suffer the
     same lack of belief in their own skills and virtues... or what's left of
     them after 50 years of communism. We share with the Russians not only a
     similar culture, alphabet, religion, but also the same mistakes.

     The US has tried in the past to help Russia - and we all have seen the
     big failure in the 1990s; money was sent to Russia in big quantities,
     with only one visible result today - the  \"primitive economy\", so named
     by President Medvedev. Many Russians blame US experts, who were sent to
     Russia, for the way the Soviet enterprises were privatized. And the word
     \"help\" today causes outbursts by the Russian politicians, even publicly.
     Ask Michael Dell, who offered help for Russia to Prime Minister Putin at
     the 2009 Davos Economic Forum, just to find out that a misinterpreted
     word can sometime cause the anger of Mr. Putin.

     Perhaps some are already asking themselves, why, on Earth, shall we do
     anything, when we have such big problems at home?
     To answer that question, one must think not in the short-term
     perspective of today or tomorrow, but rather what will happen when the
     Soviet equipment starts to explode in a more regular way. And what if
     the next explosion is at a nuclear power plant. But, wait - it could be
     worse - what if this is an explosion of people - unhappy, with no
     alternatives, who are suffering the bureaucracy, and see no hope. If
     this happens, it will influence the whole planet, and that's why it is
     in all of our interest to do what we can to make sure there is no second
     Chernobyl.

     The West has lived for too long in comfortable conditions, thinking that
     what happens in one country does not influence others. East Europe was
     left to the Soviets, and the two system lived happily. Today we are in a
     different world. In the context of climate change discussion, or even
     better - the lack of investment in Afghanistan after the Russians left
     the country in 1989, and what it brought to the USA, and to all of us,
     that seems not like old-fashioned dogma, or a bad taste. It seems
     irresponsible towards our own children and our own planet.

     Veni Markovski,
     Washington, DC
     The author is a blogger, and the President of the Internet Society of
     Bulgaria
     The views expressed are his own, and not of any of the organizations
     he's affiliated with

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-10-01 18:56:18",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5431298_re-a-piece-on-russia-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","veni@veni.com",""
5431824,"INSIGHT - the US focus on Georgia and Ukraine 
","   CODE: RU108
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Moscow
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: senior at one of Putin's think-tanks
   SOURCES LEVEL: high
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   This is not Vershbow's only move. He will be tossing himself back and
   forth for the next few months between Georgia and Ukraine. He will be in
   Georgia October 19-20 and then in Ukraine in early November and Georgia in
   late November and then back again to both in December.
    
   In Georgia, Vershbow will be coordinating an expansion of US training of
   Georgian troops. It will most likely not just be defensive anymore.
    
   In Ukraine, yes, there was the BMD announcement that Kiev did not even
   know about. But the bigger concern is that under certain Western nudging,
   Ukraine will resume weapon transfers to Georgia.
    
   Vershbow's primary focus will now be on Georgia and Ukraine, but we all
   know that there is an expiration date on the Ukraine part of this
   equation.
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-10-09 17:52:08",1,"2012-03-02 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5431824_insight-the-us-focus-on-georgia-and-ukraine-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","watchofficer@stratfor.com",""
5433095,"IMPORTANT FW: Re: OK
","    
    

     -------------- Forwarded Message: --------------
     From: atsullivan4321@comcast.net
     To: Bilalkinguk <bilalkinguk@yahoo.co.uk>
     Subject: Re: OK
     Date: Fri, 24 Dec 2004 19:06:25 +0000
     Dear Bilal:
      
     This sounds good:
      
     Take your time.  Probably nothing will happen here until 2 January.
      
     It is vital, of course, that your information be absolutely precise. 
     But you already know that.
      
     I wait what you find with enormous interest.  I think I can say the same
     for our colleagues.
      
     Hussein.
      

       -------------- Original message --------------

          Thanks dear Hussein,
         I am not bargaining the company at all, am just waiting some new
         details from a source to complete my info and make them more
         important. This info is very very important and needs to be very
         accurate and deserves a special compensation.
         But let's wait few days to get some details and to get an idea
         regarding the compensation.
         Best,
          Bilal

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       Do you Yahoo!?
       Send a seasonal email greeting and help others. Do good.
","2004-12-24 20:07:46",1,"2012-03-15 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5433095_important-fw-re-ok-.html","atsullivan4321@comcast.net","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,harshey@stratfor.com",""
5433381,"Re: BB New
","The licensing info shows that he did most of the real estate coursework
at Austin Community College and one class at the \"Texas Realtors
Institute\".  The website for Austin Community College doesn't have any
other results with his name.  I haven't located the \"Texas Realtor's
Institute\", maybe out of business now, or the website may be listing a
different name?  Will keep checking.

On 1/7/2010 5:36 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
> Good find
>
> ------Original Message------
> From: Anya Alfano
> To: Fred Burton
> To: 'Scott Stewart'
> To: 'korena zucha'
> Subject: BB New
> Sent: Jan 7, 2010 4:26 PM
>
> Just found a new result -- there's an outdated record with the Texas
> Real Estate Commission that BB was a licensed real estate salesperson,
> but the license expired on May 31, 2008.  Looking at the current
> website, there's no indication that he's currently registered for
> anything real estate related in Texas.  Old license info:
>
> http://www.trec.state.tx.us/newsandpublic/licenseeLookup/LicenseeDetail.aspx?inType=01&id=ng&inLicno=0554875
>
> The old license information indicates his permanent address is (the
> license expired more than a year before the purchase of his residential
> property):
> 2413 BUTLER NATIONAL DR.PFLUGERVILLE, TX 78660  (This address is also
> listed in connection with his parents)
>
>
> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>   
","2010-01-07 23:56:50",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5433381_re-bb-new-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5433461,"Re: question
","Yeah, totally possible.  But looking at the photo and thinking how slimy
he must be to do all of this, real estate also seems to fit the bill. 

On 1/8/2010 8:53 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
> Or become a drug dealer?
> Maybe he intends to blackmail us
> He's in on the scam
>
> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
> Date: Fri, 08 Jan 2010 08:48:28 
> To: <burton@stratfor.com>
> Cc: Scott Stewart<scott.stewart@stratfor.com>; Korena Zucha<zucha@stratfor.com>; 'korena zucha'<korena.zucha@stratfor.com>
> Subject: Re: question
>
> No, the license expired on May 31, 2008.  He could have earned the money
> before the license expired and sat on it until the market got a little
> stronger this year. 
>
> On 1/8/2010 8:44 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
>   
>> License current?
>>
>> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
>> Date: Fri, 08 Jan 2010 08:42:38 
>> To: scott stewart<scott.stewart@stratfor.com>
>> Cc: <burton@stratfor.com>; 'Korena Zucha'<zucha@stratfor.com>; 'korena zucha'<korena.zucha@stratfor.com>
>> Subject: Re: question
>>
>> Yes, I'm trying to figure out how to pull up real estate transaction
>> records so we can get an idea of how much he earned in commission. 
>>
>> On 1/8/2010 8:04 AM, scott stewart wrote:
>>   
>>     
>>> So would real estate in Austin. You could earn that much commission on one
>>> decent house sale.  
>>>
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com] 
>>> Sent: Thursday, January 07, 2010 11:11 PM
>>> To: burton@stratfor.com
>>> Cc: Scott Stewart; Korena Zucha; 'korena zucha'
>>> Subject: Re: question
>>>
>>> That would be a great way to earn $45k in cash by the time you're 23.
>>>
>>> On 1/7/2010 10:24 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
>>>   
>>>     
>>>       
>>>> Maybe he's a gigalo?
>>>>  
>>>> ------Original Message------
>>>> From: Scott Stewart
>>>> To: Anya Alfano
>>>> To: Fred Burton
>>>> Cc: Korena Zucha
>>>> Cc: 'korena zucha'
>>>> Subject: RE: question
>>>> Sent: Jan 7, 2010 8:46 PM
>>>>
>>>> If a woman wanted to call me by another name and have me pretend to be 
>>>> a British Lord to her friends, she'd have to be a whole lot more 
>>>> attractive than Lauren.
>>>>
>>>> -----Original Message-----
>>>> From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
>>>> Sent: Thursday, January 07, 2010 5:00 PM
>>>> To: Fred Burton
>>>> Cc: zucha@stratfor.com; scott stewart; korena zucha
>>>> Subject: Re: question
>>>>
>>>> I feel like I'm missing something here--I totally understand the idea 
>>>> that some men don't necessarily think with the brain on top of their 
>>>> shoulders all the time, but this just seems nuts.  He's letting a girl 
>>>> call him by some random name, speaking with a British accent, 
>>>> pretending to be a British lord, and who knows what else--but why? 
>>>> What is he getting out of it (besides maybe the obvious...)?
>>>>
>>>> On 1/7/2010 1:09 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
>>>>   
>>>>     
>>>>       
>>>>         
>>>>> Drew w/a British accent
>>>>>   
>>>>>     
>>>>>       
>>>>>         
>>>>>           
>>>>>> Does R know him as Brian, or Drew?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On 1/7/2010 12:36 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
>>>>>>     
>>>>>>       
>>>>>>         
>>>>>>           
>>>>>>             
>>>>>>> R advises both L & B are unbelievable poker players.  R thinks they 
>>>>>>> work as a tandem.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Anya Alfano wrote:
>>>>>>>   
>>>>>>>       
>>>>>>>         
>>>>>>>           
>>>>>>>             
>>>>>>>               
>>>>>>>> Maybe the guy has roommates to cover the mortgage so he doesn't 
>>>>>>>> have any expenses?  Both his cell phone number and his driver's 
>>>>>>>> license are registered to the pflugerville home that he owns.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On 1/7/2010 12:04 PM, zucha@stratfor.com wrote:
>>>>>>>>     
>>>>>>>>         
>>>>>>>>           
>>>>>>>>             
>>>>>>>>               
>>>>>>>>                 
>>>>>>>>> As a note, his accurint report showed that he had a roommate both 
>>>>>>>>> at the pflugerville home and Duvall apt although the guy's name 
>>>>>>>>> did not match those for owners of the cars in the driveway.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On Jan 7, 2010, at 10:56 AM, Anya Alfano 
>>>>>>>>> <anya.alfano@stratfor.com <mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com>> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>       
>>>>>>>>>           
>>>>>>>>>             
>>>>>>>>>               
>>>>>>>>>                 
>>>>>>>>>                   
>>>>>>>>>> Yes, the number that LG provided is 512-507-6544.  The number is 
>>>>>>>>>> registered in the name of Brian Baxter at the address of the 
>>>>>>>>>> home he owns.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> On 1/7/2010 11:52 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>         
>>>>>>>>>>             
>>>>>>>>>>               
>>>>>>>>>>                 
>>>>>>>>>>                   
>>>>>>>>>>                     
>>>>>>>>>>> Do you have Baxter's cell #?
>>>>>>>>>>>   
>>>>>>>>>>>           
>>>>>>>>>>>               
>>>>>>>>>>>                 
>>>>>>>>>>>                   
>>>>>>>>>>>                     
>>>>>>>>>>>                       
>>>> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>>>>     
>>>>       
>>>>         
>>>   
>>>     
>>>       
","2010-01-08 14:56:58",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5433461_re-question-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com,zucha@stratfor.com",""
5434390,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Its happening! Bye bye Sechin's State firms
","   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Senior within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   The paperwork for the first round of investigations into key companies in
   Russia has been completed. Dmitri Anatolyevich (Medvedev) signed the
   proper documents last night.
    
   The President has signed off on 22 criminal investigations by the
   Prosecutor General Office into Russian state corporations.
    
   Medvedev also signed a document last night that will \"overhaul\" state
   corporations that are deemed by the PG office as \"inappropriate and
   ineffective.\" This covers everything from financial discrepancies
   (especially bonuses to board members), violations in tenders, unaddressed
   while known inefficiencies, violations on outsourcing, illegal spending of
   state funds, etc. The PG office can now \"test\" the efficiency of these
   companies too, though the President has given a pretty broad arena for us
   to be able to do this.
    
   Initial inquiries into these companies began in October as said before,
   but now the actual criminal investigations can begin.
    
   Now the PG office can start demanding financial and managerial material
   from the state and the corporations to find out how exactly these
   companies are being run.
    
   Once the investigations are done, the state companies will either be
   cleared, pay fines, be shut down or turned into joint stock companies.
    
   The first companies will be Vneshkonombank, Olympstroi, Rosnano, Russian
   Technologies/Rosoboronexport, VSMPO-Avisma, AvtoVaz, Mortgage Lending
   Agency, Housing and Utilities Reform Fund.
    
   My bet is that Russian Technoloies will be hit the hardest as it is a
   personal project for the puppetmaster. The plan for RT is to break off the
   more than 400 pieces it recently bought up.
    
   The plan for Rosnano is to find out where $5 billion of the $10 billion it
   was allotted from the state two years ago went.... It is not in their
   books.
    
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-11-11 17:33:42",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5434390_insight-russia-its-happening-bye-bye-sechin-s-state-firms-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","watchofficer@stratfor.com",""
5434824,"Hey y'all!
","   Hey family,
   I made it to Moscow. It is gross, drizzley and sleeting. My flights were
   horrendous. First off, I didn't think I would make my flight in Houston bc
   British Airways are morons and it took them 2.25 hours to get me through
   the basic line to get my freakin boarding pass. Then Heathrow was a
   nightmare as they were pulling people off left and right for secondary
   searches. My security team was not happy.
   I also got seated on one flight among a bunch of Nigerians who don't know
   what deodorant is. The funny thing about the Nigerians (which dad will
   love) is that they ALLLLLL had copies and were reading copies of Joel
   Olstein (spelling?) book--- that crazy American Christian guy I know dad
   loves so much.
   But I'm happy to be back in Moscow. It feels right for me to be here.
   My car and driver here are hilarious. It is this amazing 2010 BMD that is
   bulletproof and seriously dark windows. What cracked me up about my 'ride'
   is that the back seat moves (motorized shifts) as the car swerves and
   stops in order to brace the impact-- crazy new technology.
   My room at Kempinsky in Moscow-- which is Europe's most expensive hotel--
   is insane too. My room partially overlooks the Moscow river with Red
   Square on the other side and partially overlooks this Russian Orthodox
   Seminary. Certainly makes me feel like I\"m in the middle of politics and
   intrigue here in Russia.
   I'm sitting right now in the lobby while drinking good vodka (yum)...
   watching people of all levels of shadiness come and go.
   I'll email you again soon, since I have alot of access to email here this
   week.
   Love you,
   La
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-11-21 16:10:31",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5434824_hey-y-all-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","rwgo6@aol.com,mgmiles@comcast.net,ckgoodrich@gmail.com",""
5434940,"Re: Happy Monday...
","   Hey boys,
   Just checking in one last time Monday.... errr, I guess its Tuesday now.
   It's 5 am here and I just got in from fourth meeting that started
   yesterday-- damn Russians can drink too long/late. I'm going to crash
   before I head to my sixth meeting in a few hours, starting my Tuesday.
   But I didn't want to leave y'all without hearing from me after my fourth
   meeting and letting y'all know that everything was okay.
   I'll check in later!
   Lauren

   Lauren Goodrich wrote:

     We'll talk when I get back. But in short, there is some not happy
     Russians with my new protector's affinity for me.

     Fred Burton wrote:

       Tougher in what way? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Monday, November 23, 2009 9:12 AM
       To: burton@stratfor.com
       Cc: Scott Stewart; Chris Farnham
       Subject: Re: Happy Monday...
       Hey Gentlemen,
       I'm out of my third meeting and have a few hours before my late night
       fourth meeting. Everything is okay here, but the terrible Moscow
       traffic.
       As far as my morning meeting, yes, it was the same drill as before,
       though they were tougher with their questions.
       I'm not making many friends here this time... oh well.
       Thanks!
       Lauren

       burton@stratfor.com wrote:

         Lauren - Same drill as before?

         Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Lauren Goodrich <goodrich@stratfor.com>
         Date: Mon, 23 Nov 2009 03:51:52 -0600
         To: scott stewart<scott.stewart@stratfor.com>; Fred
         Burton<burton@stratfor.com>; Chris
         Farnham<chris.farnham@stratfor.com>
         Subject: Happy Monday...
         Hey Gentlemen,
         Just checking in to let you know everything is okay. Sorry for the
         late check-in, but I got picked up this morning, as we expected, but
         wasn't given time to contact y'all. Godfather knew where I was, so I
         wasn't worried. Just a three hour friendly chat.
         Now I'm preparing to go to my third meeting which should take all
         afternoon. Chat with y'all afterwards!
         Lauren
         --
         Lauren Goodrich
         Director of Analysis
         Senior Eurasia Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: 512.744.4311
         F: 512.744.4334
         lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     STRATFOR
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-11-24 03:19:06",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5434940_re-happy-monday-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,chris.farnham@stratfor.com",""
5435127,"EXCOMM TASK - Paid Source Network
","   Task: To develop a system whereby we can develop a paid source network so
   that we can have a reliable group of people in key parts of the world who
   can provide us with constant stream of insight.

    

   Current Situation: At present we have very few paid sources and the bulk
   of our insight comes from sources who offer us information because of
   their relationships with individual analysts and because of our
   reputation. Obviously there are limits to the quantity and quality of
   intelligence we can obtain through people who share information in
   exchange for access to our reports. In order to become a global
   intelligence company that is ahead of everyone else in the analysis and
   forecasting business we need to build our proprietary source network.

    

   Problem: Such a network is a function of financial bandwidth, which means
   it will be a slow process and what has happened is that it has been ad hoc
   in nature. There is no system by which we determine where we need/or will
   need a source in a given country/region. The few paid people we have were
   developed as the need arose and as we happen to bump into someone.

    

   Solution: I am working with Stick (we have had a preliminary meeting
   before the last excomm session) to come up with a system by which we can
   build out our paid source network. Stick will be working with Jeff to get
   a budget for this purpose which will then be allocated based on the needs
   of each aor and its urgency. The envisioned system will allow each aor
   working through its respective field analyst to relay its need for a paid
   source to the VP of Tactical Intelligence who will then work with the
   field analyst to address the need as quickly as possible within the
   budgetary constraints. In this way we can uniformly develop our network
   and move away from the current randomness.

    

   Timeline:  I will have the first cut on a proposed system ready so that
   everyone can read it over and then come prepared at the next meeting to
   discuss it.
","2009-12-02 00:23:48",1,"2012-03-03 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5435127_excomm-task-paid-source-network-.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","","excomm@stratfor.com",""
5435265,"Re: visa petition - INFORMATION NEEDED
","   My degrees & subjects of degrees -
   1) Associates degree in International Relations - Specializing in Russian
   relations - Moscow State University 1998
   2) Bachelors in Slavic Language - Specialization in Russian and Ukrainian
   language - Tomsk Polytechnical University - 2000
   3) Association Masters of Theological Studies - Specialization in
   Religious Conflict; Specialization in Markean Studies - Perkins School of
   Theology - 2003
   4) Bachelors in Slavic Culture and Literature - Specialization in Russia
   and Tolstoy - University of Texas - 2004
   5) Masters in Russian, Eastern, European Eurasia Studies - Specialization
   in Russian and Former Soviet Relations - University of Texas - 2006

   As far as relevant experience... I've been working in this field (whether
   in school or not) non-stop all my life. I officially joined on the World
   Peace Foundation bankroll starting in 1994. I have lead the Russian Peace
   Foundation and worked with the Russian government starting in late 1996. I
   have never stopped this since. I joined Stratfor in 2005.

   I think my diplomas are in Germany, but am not sure.

   Leticia Pursel wrote:

     Hello Lauren,

      

     We were recently asked to submit additional items in regards to a visa
     petition that was submitted on behalf of Kamran Bokhari. I've been asked
     to prepare a chart listing persons who have held the Analyst or Senior
     Analyst position in the last two years, and for each person show:

      

     What college degree the person holds, including the institution and year
     awarded

     The subject of the degree

     How many years relevant experience the person holds post-degree

     Copy of your diploma if available.

      

     This is a time sensitive request so I will need this information right
     away. If you can send part or all of this information by tomorrow it
     would be greatly appreciated. Please let me know if you have any
     questions of if any additional information is needed.

      

      

     Thank you!

     Leticia

      

     --

     Leticia G. Pursel

     Human Resources Manager

     STRATFOR

     P: 512.744.4076 or 800.286.9062

     F: 512.744.4105

     www.stratfor.com

      

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-12-02 16:53:24",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5435265_re-visa-petition-information-needed-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","leticia.pursel@stratfor.com,Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com",""
5436672,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Bashneft Security Chief gunned down 
","   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION:  yes if we get more info
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the PG office
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Prosecutor General
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   HANDLER: Lauren
    
    
   The head of security for Russian oil firm Bashneft, Vladimir Butorin, was
   gunned down in Ufa at 9 a.m. Dec. 29. Butorin was shot five times - mostly
   in the back and buttocks-on his way to work on Mustafa Karim street.
    
   At the crime scene found a barrel of a gun PSS (special self-loading
   pistol). This is a rare weapon, armed by the KGB and military
   intelligence.
    
   There were surveillance cameras in the area, though they did not record
   the incident. There is footage of a woman (or man dressed as a woman)
   running from where the incident most likely took place.
    
   Bashneft is offering a reward of 600,000 rubles for any information on the
   killing.
    
   Butorin was former KGB, but had been working for Bashneft in charge of
   their secrets and securing their intelligence for over a decade.
    
   This is the first assumed contract killing in the energy industry in a few
   years. Could be the Kremlin making a move, could be a rival energy company
   making a move or could be related to something else altogether (an affair
   or bad business).
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-12-30 15:52:39",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5436672_insight-russia-bashneft-security-chief-gunned-down-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
5436902,"SRM UPDATE - BULGARIA - 080414
","","2008-04-14 20:01:39",1,"2012-02-28 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5436902_srm-update-bulgaria-080414-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","srmupdate@stratfor.com","attach/174/174845_BULGARIA - Crime_Points 080414.doc
attach/174/174847_BULGARIA - Terrorism and Insurrection_Points 080414.doc
attach/174/174848_BULGARIA - Labor_Points 080414.doc
attach/174/174850_BULGARIA - PoliticalRegulatoryEnvironment_Points 080414.doc
attach/174/174851_BULGARIA - International Frictions_Points 080414.doc
attach/174/174852_BULGARIA - NGOs_Points 080414.doc
attach/174/174853_BULGARIA - Natural Disasters_Points 080414.doc
attach/174/174854_BULGARIA - Country Writeup - 080414.doc"
5437150,"Overview of the Source Review Process
","   Meredith,
   As we discussed, I've included my thoughts about the review process
   below.  Please let me know if you have any questions.  Hope you have a
   safe trip and a good weekend!
   Anya

   This document is meant to provide my observations about the sources that
   have been evaluated to date and our use of those sources.  I've also
   included some other observations about the source review process and the
   thoughts about how to make our source process function more effectively.

    

   To date the groups of sources that have not been reviewed include:

   .      MESA - All of Reva's sources, aside from ME1

   .      FSU - Lauren's Russia sources, aside from the first 20 and new
   sources that Eugene has developed while in the region

   .      East Asia - All sources not managed by Jen (Rodger, Zhixing, Colby,
   Chris, Lena)

   .      Topic Specific Sources - Sources that can discuss economics,
   military, energy, minerals and other similar topics in multiple regions
   and countries

    

   Regional Overviews -

    

   .      Latam - We have a wide range of sources in Latin America that cover
   political, security and economic matters, but we don't have a particular
   depth in any one country or area, with the possible exception of security
   sources in Mexico. Our coverage in Brazil could be especially good as both
   Paulo and Allison further develop their current contacts.  Paulo appears
   to have a good selection of political, security, military and econ
   contacts, though we don't have a good track record of information from
   these contacts at this point. In other countries, we have a scattered
   selection of sources that appear to be primarily political. We have some
   gaps in full country coverage in Latin America, especially in Central
   America, since these areas haven't been particularly important in the
   past. We have some gaps in economics throughout the region, though we also
   are largely lacking tactical details about events and situations within
   the region.

    

   .      East Asia - The sources we've reviewed to date have been handled by
   Jen, so there may be other gems buried among the team. Jen has a few
   select sources that have a deep and broad base of knowledge about specific
   subjects inside China, but mostly they have information specific to
   certain corporations, industries or situations. Jen has several contacts
   with economic and finance related information and analysis that we
   currently utilize. There are also several sources with a solid
   understanding of the political situation, as well as tactical events in
   the country. Moving forward, it may be useful to us to establish
   additional sources outside of Beijing and Shanghai to fill geographic
   gaps, as most of our contacts are currently located in those areas. Our
   coverage of Southeast Asia is largely dependent on two sources in each
   country. We currently have good sources covering several countries that
   all appear to have a good personal network of their own sources to assist
   us. These networks appear to fill most gaps in our coverage throughout the
   sub region.

    

   .      Europe/FSU - Of all regions, I was most troubled by our contacts in
   the FSU region.  While we have some contacts in Romania and Ukraine that
   cover political and economic matters, there are very few contacts that
   have proven to send us information on a reliable basis, and most of these
   contacts have a very narrow focus. That said, both Eugene and Antonia have
   identified a number of potential sources that could fill the gaps that we
   currently see in these areas. Our sources in Kazakhstan include both broad
   and narrowly focused areas of interest, though we don't have a good track
   record of information from many of the sources that would appear to be
   most valuable. This is also the case in many of the smaller countries in
   the region. We've only covered the first 20 of Lauren's Russia sources,
   though so far we appear to have a good grasp of political and energy
   matters in the country. Europe-not including countries of the Former
   Soviet Union - appears to be our weakest region by far. To date, we've
   seen fewer than 10 sources in this region, but this may be due only to our
   focus on other lesser-developed areas.

    

   .      MESA - We don't yet have a complete look at our capabilities in
   MESA without a more detailed examination of the information that's being
   provided by ME1's sub-sources and a review of Reva's sources outside of
   ME1. While we have that information that ME1 has submitted in the archive,
   it's not readily identifiable as belonging to any specific sources, thus
   it's difficult to judge the credibility of the individuals providing
   information.  We also need to evaluate the rest of Reva's non-ME1
   contacts.  Kamran has a broad network of contacts with deep knowledge of
   the history and strategic issues surrounding the Middle East. Changes in
   coding systems and lack of coding for previous insight means we don't have
   a good handle on the information that has previously been provided by
   these contacts. Despite their vast knowledge, the majority of these
   contacts do not have a tactical understanding of the day-to-day affairs in
   the Middle East, or economic affairs throughout the region. While ME1
   likely has sources that can cover these issues in the Levant, we have
   significant gaps in coverage of tactical issues in most Middle Eastern
   countries.  The notable exceptions to these thoughts are Turkey and
   Afghanistan, where we have several sources that can provide information on
   both the strategic and tactical situations related to politics and
   security.  We also have a good selection of Turkish sources with economic
   information, though we don't have a solid track record of information from
   those contacts yet.

    

   .      Africa - Mark has a very large list of contacts that could provide
   information on a wide variety of topics.  However, outside of South
   Africa, the majority of his sources appear to have a very narrow scope of
   interest and are typically not easily accessible.  Additionally, most of
   these contacts are not regularly in communication with Mark, which may
   make it difficult for us to tap into their knowledge on a regular basis.
   Many would be useful in very specific circumstances, but few could be
   considered to have an in-depth knowledge and expertise of broader topics
   or fields of study. Mark has some sources in South Africa that have a
   broader understanding of the political and security situation in South
   Africa and the energy and mining situations throughout the southern Africa
   region. However, most of the contact list appears to be related to
   security, or specific corporations, leaving gags in the area of economics.
   There are also gaps in some countries throughout the continent and gaps in
   our understanding of larger economic, mining, and energy issues outside of
   the southern regions.

    

   General Impressions

   .      We found that many analysts frequently had not been sending insight
   information, either because it they did not consider their information to
   be insight, or because they had not yet coded the contact providing the
   insight.  A simplified way to provide source codes and updated guidance on
   when a source should be given a code and what information should be sent
   will solve this problem.

   .      In previous years, I would estimate that more than 50% of all
   insight sent to the lists did not include a source code.  Now that we're
   attempting to evaluate each source based on the information that they're
   providing, it's more important that source codes are used each time a
   piece of insight is sent.  The Watch Officers have already been extremely
   helpful in making sure the analysts are using codes when possible.  This
   should aid in the next evaluation.

   .      Our use of sources is currently limited by the fact that the
   analysts don't always know that a source exists.  Obviously this is due in
   part to operational security, but it may be beneficial if source
   descriptions are provided among regional team members to make sure that
   everyone is aware a certain source exists and it may be possible to tap
   that individual for information.

   .      We have very few sources that are proactive in providing us with
   information, despite some very long and beneficial relationships.

   .      Of all media sources, multiple regions noted that they frequently
   interact with Reuters news agency more than others. I'm not sure if that
   means something specific, but our analysts seem to interact with Reuters
   journalists and bureau chiefs very frequently.

   .      I didn't see any specific trends related to the use of
   Confederation partners among regions. While some have been very useful to
   date, it seems that there may be a mismatch between the individuals our
   analysts are speaking with and the people who actually have the
   information we're seeking. In some cases, it seems like this might be
   deliberate, or may be related to perceptions that we're competition within
   the industry.  In some cases, these partnerships appear to be flourishing
   and providing us with good information. I don't recall hearing from any
   analyst that the relationship was too draining or too demanding for us to
   fulfill.

   .      Several analysts brought up the idea of \"tag-teaming\" some sources,
   especially when dealing with confederation partners and indicated that
   this was a good strategy for an all-sides approach to the company so that
   we can try to ensure we're connecting as much as possible, especially in
   cases where one person \"clicks\" more with the partner involved.

    

    
","2011-10-01 01:28:43",1,"2012-02-27 02:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5437150_overview-of-the-source-review-process-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","mfriedman@stratfor.com",""
5440404,"Re: Discussion - Georgia Update
","   do I have permission to write?

   POSSIBLE BUDGET - Stratfor has been long following the tit-for-tat
   struggle between Georgia and Russia [LINK] and as there has been an
   escalation seemed to be near breaking point [LINK], but has subsided for
   now since Tbilisi knows that no one is coming to its defense against its
   big bear of a neighbor. However, the question to watch now is if Moscow
   will again push the issue since it seems as if it is getting its internal
   issues out of the way, which could free it up to concentrate on other
   things, like its struggle with Georgia.

   Lauren Goodrich wrote:

     crisis has subsided for now...
     though the Georgians are still trying to get the Europeans behind
     them... they won't bite.
     but could flare up again if the Kremlin get a better free hand
     internally.

     friedman@att.blackberry.net wrote:

 So has the crisis subsided or was it never really there? 
 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

 -----Original Message-----
 From: Lauren Goodrich <goodrich@stratfor.com>

 Date: Mon, 12 May 2008 11:13:28
 To:Analyst List <analysts@stratfor.com>
 Subject: Discussion - Georgia Update


 We haven't seen any large moves over the weekend for 2 reasons:
      1) Georgia is still negotiating with the Europeans... though they seem to not be giving anything to Tbilisi
      2) Germany and France would have to make the decision for that to change... doubt that will happen, esp with Russia and Germany meeting tomorrow on the issue
      2) Kremlin has been locked away on domestic issues, which could end soon with some of the shifts Putin is making so he can concentrate on other issues.
 
  Lauren Goodrich wrote: CODE: GE101, UA102
  PUBLICATION: yes
  ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Tbilisi & Moscow
  SOURCES RELIABILITY: C-D
  ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2-4
  SPECIAL HANDLING: Analysts
  SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
   
   
  SOURCE 1:
  The Foreign Ministers' dinner between select Europeans-president of EU, Poland, Lithuania, etc-- and the Georgians is about to just wrap up. Leaks from it are that the Europeans can not send any help to Georgia, especially since Germany and France have forbid it; In all honesty, Germany and France also were not in favor of the trip to Tbilisi, so it is not even EU sanctioned, though under the banner of the EU since its president is on the trip.
   
  SOURCE 2:
  Lithuania is not backing down to the EU's push for it to drop its veto against Russia. It is saying that its veto is even more important with the conflict rising between Georgia and Russia. Lithuania seems to be Georgia's most vocal supporter at the moment, much to the rest of the EU's ire.
   
  Steinmeier is suppose to meet with Lavrov tomorrow. They are suppose to be telling Germany to continue keeping out of the conflict with Georgia.
   
  

     --

     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

       ------------------------------------------------------------------

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 Analysts mailing list

 LIST ADDRESS:
 analysts@stratfor.com
 LIST INFO:
 https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
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 http://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-05-12 18:36:56",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5440404_re-discussion-georgia-update-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com",""
5441475,"Re: Time for a quick call? 757-478-7383  (libyan intel)
","   Can we publish this?  Or should it just stay on Alpha?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Fred Burton\" <burton@stratfor.com>
   To: \"korena zucha\" <korena.zucha@stratfor.com>, \"Anya Alfano\"
   <Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Wednesday, November 9, 2011 2:46:05 PM
   Subject: Fwd: Time for a quick call? 757-478-7383  (libyan intel)

   Smith's source is Yousef Haddad.  Haddad called Smith to report he has
   stepped down.  Haddad is also close to Mehdi.  

   Long story short, the top two of the Tripoli Revolutionary Council have
   stepped down.   

   Mehdi has also stepped down from the Tripoli Revolutionary Brigade and has
   been paid off to leave by the NTC, receiving 200,000 Euros.  However, the
   Euros were stolen from his house in Dublin.  

   Hashim (?) has taken over for Mehdi.   Hashim was Mehdi's Deputy.  

   Smith believes the bar has swung to Bel-Hadj and he is trying to
   consolidate power.   Not good for the U.S.....

   -------- Original Message --------

   Subject: Time for a quick call? 757-478-7383         
      Date: Wed, 9 Nov 2011 14:22:37 -0500              
      From: James F. Smith <jamie@scginternational.com> 
        To: burton@stratfor.com <burton@stratfor.com>   

 Sent from my mobile device
","1970-01-01 01:00:00",1,"2012-03-19 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5441475_re-time-for-a-quick-call-757-478-7383-libyan-intel-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5441681,"Re: Fwd: Re: Assad & Syria
","   I don't have a number for him, but we can create one -- should he be
   IL701?  Or is he not in Israel now?

   On 9/1/11 3:09 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

     I don't know if he has a # or not, feel free to assign him one if
     desired.  He's former IDF MI. 

     On 9/1/2011 2:08 PM, Korena Zucha wrote:

       Does he have source info? Want this posted?

       On 9/1/11 12:54 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

         -------- Original Message --------

         Subject: Re: Assad & Syria                   
            Date: Thu, 1 Sep 2011 10:33:26 -0700      
            From: David Dafinoiu <david@dafinoiu.com> 
              To: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>   

         Hi Fred,

         Many \"international\" analysts think that since Syria is the only
         nation who attacked Israel in the Six Day War and still technically
         at war with Israel, Assad may launch some sort of attack on Israel
         in an effort to force an Israeli retaliation with the goal of
         dragging the other Arab and Muslim nations to his defense. This is a
         possible scenario, and if it will happen it is just for the reason
         of dragging Iran into a trap.

         In reality, Assad is the Western agent in the Iranian and Russian
         back yard. He is well protected by both Mossad and MI6. He and his
         father have kept stability along the Syrian and Israeli border since
         the last war in 1973.

         Al-Assad is an Alawite, and his regime has constantly repressed
         radical Islam. At the same time, his regime has been powerful
         protector of Christians in Syria. Christians represent about 10
         percent of the Syrian population, the second largest Christian
         community in the ME after Israel.

         The real enemy of Assad these days is Turkey and its government
         which is funded by the Muslim Brotherhood. The Turks hope that as a
         NATO member they will be allowed to invade Syria and take over and
         manage part of Syrian land. Syria just deployed 25 anti-air missile
         batteries along its Turkish border.

         There is a big possibility that Syria attacks Israel and Iran will
         jump in the game to help them out. Whatever happens in the next
         weeks or months, in my opinion Assad will remain in power for at
         least another year.

         Best, David

         On Thu, Sep 1, 2011 at 7:51 AM, Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
         wrote:

           Hello David,

           What are your thoughts on Assad's next move?  Does he throw in the
           towel
           and flee?

           Thanks, Fred

         --
         Cordially,
          
         David Dafinoiu
         President

         NorAm Intelligence
         Mobile: 646-678-2905
         Office: 855.692.3226
         Fax: 214-242-2285
         Email: dd@noramintel.com
         Web: http://noramintel.com

         NorAm Intelligence, a subsidiary of NorAm Capital Holdings, Inc. is
         a U.S. based international firm specializing in risk management. All
         our assignments are handled with total confidentiality and
         discretion.
          
         This communication is intended for use only by the individual(s) to
         whom it is specifically addressed and should not be read by, or
         delivered to, any other person. Such communication may contain
         privileged or confidential information.  If you have received this
         message in error, please notify us immediately by returning the
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         If you are the intended recipient, please note that e-mails and
         their attachments are by their nature susceptible to interception by
         unauthorized third parties. Accordingly, if you have requested
         sensitive information to be sent via e-mail we shall not be liable
         for any damages resulting from disclosure of the contents.
","2011-09-01 21:10:00",1,"2012-03-26 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5441681_re-fwd-re-assad-and-syria-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com,zucha@stratfor.com",""
5444184,"Brazil Telecom chief accused of illegal espionage
","   Kroll Brazil has been in some hot water concerning a case of illegal
   industrial espionage against Telecom Italia. The saga continues now with
   the chief of Brazil Telecom in hot water.

    

   Presidente da Brasil Telecom e indiciada por formac,ao de quadrilha
    | 11.04.2005

   Empresa nao emitiu comunicado sobre o assunto ate o momento

   EXAME Carla Cico, presidente da Brasil Telecom (BrT) (10-a no ranking de
   Melhores & Maiores 2004) foi indiciada nesta segunda-feira (11/4) pela
   Policia Federal (PF) por formac,ao de quadrilha e divulgac,ao de segredo
   no que ficou conhecido como \"caso Kroll\" (leia reportagem de EXAME para
   entender o caso).

   As investigac,oes fazem parte da Operac,ao Chacal, iniciada em 2004 pela
   PF apos a descoberta de indicios da formac,ao de um esquema de espionagem
   ilegal, no calor da disputa entre a Telecom Italia e o Opportunity pelo
   controle da BrT. A agencia internacional de investigac,oes Kroll e acusada
   de agir ilegalmente, oferecendo vantagens a testemunhas e quebrando
   sigilos bancario e telefonico, inclusive de autoridades do governo
   federal.

   A assessoria da BrT confirma o indiciamento, mas ainda nao emitiu
   comunicado formal sobre o assunto. Os advogados de Cico, Antonio Carlos de
   Almeida Castro e Nelio Machado, foram procurados mas nao retornaram as
   ligac,oes ate 19 horas desta segunda-feira. O empresario Daniel Dantas,
   socio do banco Opportunity, deve ser intimado nesta terc,a-feira (12/4) e
   apresentar-se `a PF no Rio de Janeiro em 48 horas a partir da intimac,ao.

   Com informac,oes da Agencia Brasil.

    

    

   Samuel Logan

   StratFor Correspondent

   1666 Kst. Suite 600

   Washington, DC  20006

   www.stratfor.com

   logan@stratfor.com

   +1 (202) 558-2485

    

    
","2005-04-12 18:36:11",1,"2012-08-02 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5444184_brazil-telecom-chief-accused-of-illegal-espionage-.html","logan@stratfor.com","","harshey@stratfor.com,rushing@stratfor.com",""
5447352,"Re: PETA
","   Hi Van,
   I'm checking with our analysts to find out what information we already
   have on the subject.  I'll get back to you soon with more information.
   Best regards,
   Anya

   Van C. Wilberding wrote:

     Hi Anya,

     Thanks again for your help with respect to the Korean Peninsula
     situation.

     We are now looking at PETA and the potential for protests at the
     Vancouver Olympics and related events.  (Please see the following
     questions below.)  We'd like to schedule a time for a conference call
     with you and/or your analyst(s) on this topic.

     -- How many PETA supporters are there in Canada?
     -- How many of these are inclined toward activism?
     -- To what extent will US-based PETA supporters travel to Canada to
     support activism?
     -- What is PETA's methodology for planning and executing activism?
      (Understanding this better would certainly help us to recognize
     indicators should they appear.)
     -- To what extent is PETA in Canada linked to PETA in the US or
     elsewhere?
     -- To what extent are the actions of PETA in one country controlled by
     an oversight board/governing body?
     -- To what extent could non-PETA hangers-on (such as anarchists or ALF
     supporters) get involved in any protest activity?

     Please let us know what works in terms of timing of the conference call.

     Thanks again,

     Van
     Coca-Cola: LIVE POSITIVELY - Our Company and leaders have supported
     education for more than 100 years. Learn about our education programs
     around the world.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     
     This message (including any attachments) contains information that may
     be confidential. Unless you are the intended recipient (or authorized to
     receive for the intended recipient), you may not read, print, retain,
     use, copy, distribute or disclose to anyone the message or any
     information contained in the message. If you have received the message
     in error, please advise the sender by reply e-mail, and destroy all
     copies of the original message (including any attachments).
","2009-06-02 17:23:15",1,"2012-02-27 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5447352_re-peta-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","vwilberding@na.ko.com,genbrown@na.ko.com",""
5453604,"Re: FW: Comrade J (book)
","   I loved the book... gave so much technical info and detail

   Fred Burton wrote:

     from a spook buddy source

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     Fred,

      

     Thanks for the recommendation...what a fascinating, and frightening
     account. In light of the recent elections, I can't help but recall the
     quote, \"the voters don't decide the election, the people that count the
     votes decide the election\"  They are certainly continuing on a
     disturbing path.

      

     Regards,

      

      

      

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-03-07 19:45:10",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5453604_re-fw-comrade-j-book-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","howerton@stratfor.com,burton@stratfor.com,zeihan@stratfor.com,aaric.eisenstein@stratfor.com,ct@stratfor.com",""
5454590,"Re: FW: email of Fred Burton
","   sorry... wrote him this morning.

   Fred Burton wrote:

     Lauren, That Veni dude sent me a note wanting to know when we would be
     in touch, just so you know, advised him we have been swamped. 

     Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       Okay, heard back from my side.
       He is hooked into the Bulgairan OC, but nothing too shady bout that
       since he is Bulgarian.
       He is not hooked into the Russians either through OC or FSB.

       Fred Burton wrote:

         Thank you

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
         Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2008 11:39 PM
         To: Fred Burton
         Subject: Re: FW: email of Fred Burton
         Markovski is a huge internet mogul in Bulgaria. He is kinda a
         strange guy, but very powerful in business circles. I've shipped his
         name to my ppl to see if he is hooked into FSB or OC. But he is one
         of the biggest founders of Internet in Bulgaria and the region. I
         know he has ties into Russia and the rest of the CIS.

         To be honest, I can't imagine him having a \"gmail\" account with his
         own name on it. That seems really suspect to me since he is such a
         powerful and rich dude.

         Fred Burton wrote:

            Any idea who these folks are?  Thx  

           -----Original Message-----
           From: veni Markovski [mailto:venimarkovski@gmail.com] On Behalf Of
           Veni Markovski
           Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2008 4:46 PM
           To: service@stratfor.com
           Subject: email of Fred Burton

           Hi.

           I am looking for the e-mail of Mr. Burton. Would be glad, if you
           can send it.

           Thank you.

           Sincerely,

           Veni Markovski

           Senior Advisor for International Projects
           <http://www.daits.government.bg/>State Agency for IT and
           Communications <http://www.government.bg/>Council of Ministers |
           REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA
           ----------------
           email: <mailto:veni@veni.com>veni@veni.com | email2:
           <mailto:veni@daits.government.bg>veni@daits.government.bg
           office: +1-646-873-7708 | office2: +359-2-401-8008 | fax:
           +1-212-319-5955 Bulgarian Consulate General, 121 E 62nd Str., New
           York, NY 10021, USA

         --

         Lauren Goodrich
         Director of Analysis
         Senior Eurasia Analyst
         Stratfor
         Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
         T: 512.744.4311
         F: 512.744.4334
         lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

       --

       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       Stratfor
       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-08-14 21:23:23",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5454590_re-fw-email-of-fred-burton-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
5454900,"For the New-Tern
","","2008-08-19 18:47:41",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5454900_for-the-new-tern-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","gordon.wilkins@stratfor.com","attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc
attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc
attach/174/174277_FSU sites.doc
attach/175/175579_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc"
5456097,"Re: Mooney
","The fact that there are no messages from him to her also makes his role
look really strange--assuming he's just in it for sex, wouldn't there
still be some communication between the two of them?  No communication
would indicate some sort of paid relationship, maybe? 

One other thought--does the company pay for her cell phone bill?  If so,
we should be able to get a list of her cell phone calls.  I'd be
interested to see if there are regular calls between her cell phone
number and his known cell phone number. 

On 1/7/2010 3:25 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
> Mooney is going to walk back the cat on the email and phones again, in
> an effort to smoke out any new data.  He recalled a Baxter gmail acct in
> his first sweep, but zero email back to her.
>   
","2010-01-07 23:34:21",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5456097_re-mooney-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5457112,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Evraz is done
","   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   Evraz is done, no matter what deals Abramovich thinks he has with Putin...
   Abramov (other VP) has sealed the company's fate.
    
   So Putin and Abramov had a very public spat this week while they sat next
   to each other at an Industrialists meeting. Putin accused Abramov & Evraz
   of gouging ppl over steel prices
    
   Putin said: Imagine that I'm sitting under the table as you're conducting
   pricing negotiations!  After all, you're not conducting yourself by the
   rules of the market!  People come from you with a direct order: don't
   lower prices!
    
   When Abramov tried to protest, Putin brushed him off with a wave of the
   hand, exclaiming \"I don't want to hear it!\"

   Every other metals Oligarch was at the table watching this.
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-03-20 20:49:07",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5457112_insight-russia-evraz-is-done-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
5458821,"Re: FW: the letter
","Wonder if they tried to pull up \"HMRShippingUK.net\".  Game over....

On 2/12/2010 3:24 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
> Have the Indians also been invited to the party?
>
> scott stewart wrote:
>   
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Peter Zeihan [mailto:zeihan@stratfor.com] 
>> Sent: Friday, February 12, 2010 3:17 PM
>> To: scott stewart
>> Subject: the letter
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>
>> Subject:
>> Re: Hello my friends
>> From:
>> \"Marko Papic\" <mpapic@gmail.com>
>> Date:
>> Thu, 11 Feb 2010 20:39:17 -0500
>> To:
>> <L.A.Anderson@hmrshippinguk.net>
>>
>> To:
>> <L.A.Anderson@hmrshippinguk.net>
>> CC:
>> <cooper.a.kristen@gmail.com>, <peter.zeihan@stratfor.com>
>>
>>
>> Hey Andrew,
>>
>> Thank you for your email.
>>
>> What are you thinking about? And for how many people? The latter makes a
>> difference since if we invite a large number of people from Stratfor, we
>> would want to make it accessible and relatively work-hour related (so
>> happy hour -- unfortunately as lame as that sounds -- would have to do).
>>
>> Alternatively, if you are thinking of something more private and
>> low-key, we could plan for a nice dinner somewhere, or perhaps even
>> better a lunch.
>>
>> That said, if we want to really give Lauren something that she (and all
>> of us) would enjoy... how about going and doing something fun... like
>> paintball. Lauren is always talking about how she would kick everyone's
>> ass in paintball. Well... what better way to celebrate her birthday then
>> to let her kill all of us (with paint of course... of course, just
>> paint...).
>>
>> We could also think of some sort of an event on Town Lake.
>>
>> I can help you out with these ideas. Just note that I am on vacation in
>> Taos between the 11th and 22nd of March. I will be here for March 23rd
>> -- which I believe is her birthday -- but I will miss the weekend that
>> preceeds it.
>>
>> Cheers,
>>
>> Marko
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On Thu, Feb 11, 2010 at 9:51 AM, L. Andrew Anderson
>> <L.A.Anderson@hmrshippinguk.net <mailto:L.A.Anderson@hmrshippinguk.net>>
>> wrote:
>>
>>     Hello Kristen, Marko and Peter,
>>
>>      
>>
>>     I apologize for this contact without a proper introduction of such
>>     correspondence. But I understand from Lauren that you would not take
>>     affront to such a gesture.
>>
>>      
>>
>>     My contact has purpose in that I hope to work with your
>>     “Strat-clique” on plans for Ella’s 30th birthday. I have attempted
>>     to contact Miss Reva, but she must have overlooked my communications.
>>
>>      
>>
>>     Lauren and I had originally planned on celebrating her Pearl
>>     Anniversary in Italy with your participation, though with the
>>     barrage of engagement and wedding events, she has regrettably
>>     insisted on postponing for one year this trip. This was her idea and
>>     not mine, as I beg your pardon for such anticipation. Also, her
>>     close friend Jennifer shall be giving birth around Ella’s birthday,
>>     so our stubborn Birthday Girl has insisted on spending her day in
>>     the States.
>>
>>      
>>
>>     I have quite a few ideas stored away though she is adamant about
>>     neglecting this celebration. Thus far, I have rented a private yacht
>>     for us to get away far from land for a few days. Her family has the
>>     obligatory dinner planned the week of her birthday at the River Oaks
>>     Country Club.
>>
>>      
>>
>>     So I am open to your suggestions and inevitable plotting on what
>>     else we can do, especially among her Stratfor mates. I firmly
>>     believe that we need something outside of my private kidnapping of
>>     her and her family’s stodgy dinner.
>>
>>      
>>
>>     Let me know if we can work together in this endeavor. I am open to
>>     your suggestions and plotting. I hope you can aide my poor attempts
>>     to please all her requests on such an occasion.
>>
>>      
>>
>>     Your servant and friend,
>>
>>     L. Andrew
>>     ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>
>>     Rt. Hon Andrew Anderson
>>
>>      
>>
>>           Lord of Kenton Park
>>
>>      
>>
>>                Her Majesty The Queen’s Royal Shipping
>>
>>      
>>
>>                Anderson Shipping, UK
>>
>>      
>>
>>                     Aldwych House, 71-91 Aldwych London, UK WC2B 4HN
>>                     Service: 20.3287.8860
>>
>>      
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>     
","2010-02-12 21:49:47",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5458821_re-fw-the-letter-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5459805,"INSIGHT - CHECHNYA - last spots of fighting
","    
   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
    
   Russian security counter-terrorism operations have started to be cut down,
   but they will remain in the Shali, Vedeno and Shatoi areas in the
   Mountains. This is because there is still some sporadic, but intense
   fighting in those regions. Because of their location in the Mountains, it
   is expected to be one of the last patchy hideouts for fighters.
    
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-04-28 14:02:40",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5459805_insight-chechnya-last-spots-of-fighting-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
5459813,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA/BULGARIA - Stanishev's \"visit\"
","   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   Here are the answers I was told to your questions.
    
   Stanishev arrived Monday though his talks with Medvedev and Putin were
   postponed. This gave him a rare chance to speak with some unusual Russians
   instead.
    
   Talks with Stanishev were exciting and we know he will be motivated to
   change his attitude in the future. He had a sitdown with now only Medvedev
   and Putin finally on Tues, but a nice chat with Luzhkov and his people on
   Monday-if you get my drift. Of course, Russia wasn't all needles and fire,
   but gave some sweets to Bulgaria too with a loan of $5b now being dangled
   in front of Stanishev.
    
   There will most likely be a deal on SouthStream by the end of the May, but
   in all honesty that doesn't matter as much as a deal on Russia controlling
   more of Belene.
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-04-28 14:02:36",1,"2012-03-25 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5459813_insight-russia-bulgaria-stanishev-s-visit-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
5462138,"Re: Fwd: Question
","   No, we're not aware of any concrete connections between fundamentalist
   Islamist movements and the Day of Rage, or the October 2011 movement at
   this point. 

   On 8/18/11 1:17 PM, Fred Burton wrote:

     ?

     -------- Original Message --------

      Subject: Question                                      
         Date: Thu, 18 Aug 2011 10:15:13 -0700 (PDT)         
         From: Thomas Kopecky <tkopecky@fortisworldwide.com> 
     Reply-To: tkopecky@fortisworldwide.com                  
           To: Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>             

     Hi Fred & thanks for those books you signed....my father thought that    
     was a great gift.                                                        
                                                                              
     I was looking into that US Day of Rage movement and specifically asked   
     to connect it to any Saudi or other fundamentalist Islamic movements -   
                                                                              
     Thus far I have only hear rumors but not gotten any substantial          
     connection.                                                              
                                                                              
     Do you guys know much about this other than its US Domestic fiscal       
     ideals ?                                                                 
                                                                              
     thanks                                                                   
                                                                              
     Tom                                                                      
                                                                              
                                                                              
                                                                              
     Thomas Kopecky, Director of Operations                                   
                                                                              
     - Investigative Research Consultants, Inc.                               
                                                                              
     - Fortis Protective Services, LLC                                        
                                                                              
     1 E Wacker Dr. Suite 2300                                                
     Chicago, IL 60601                                                        
     312.832.9600 - office                                                    
                                                                              
     1145 West 5th St. #101                                                   
                                                                              
     Austin, TX 78703                                                         
                                                                              
     512.381.9000                                                             
                                                                              
     800.578.8212 - fax                                                       
                                                                              
     www.ircIntelligence.com                                                  
                                                                              
     www.fortisworldwide.com                                                  
                                                                              
                                                                              
","2011-08-18 19:29:44",1,"2012-03-02 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5462138_re-fwd-question-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5464305,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Church succession 
","   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: sure
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   Putin wants Metropolitan Kirill to run the church, but will settle for
   Yuvenaly. Kirill is KGB and thought much like Alexy, but is faithful to
   Putin. Yuvenaly wasn't KGB, but is willing to continue that relationship.
   The succession line isn't certain but not as dangerous as it was say 2
   years ago. Alexy made sure to smoke out any that would cause the church to
   break into chaos should he die. There is a competition between Kirill and
   Yuvenaly, but Putin won't allow it to get out of hand.

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-12-05 16:01:57",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5464305_insight-russia-church-succession-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
5464321,"Re: Routine
","Yes, I can do that later today, but I'm not aware of any comprehensive
searches, so hopefully the dead person is listed in a major paper and
not a local rag.  I might start with accurint and look for dead people
first.

On 1/5/2010 11:06 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
> Can we ck obit death records for lover boy ?
>
> ------Original Message------
> From: Anya Alfano
> To: Fred Burton
> Cc: Korena Zucha
> Subject: Re: Routine
> Sent: Jan 5, 2010 10:02 AM
>
> Isn't the blowback just as bad once the truth comes out and she's still
> here?  Bad precedent, and the game can't go on forever.
>
> On 1/5/2010 11:00 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
>   
>> Probably not because of the blowback.  
>>
>> ------Original Message------
>> From: Anya Alfano
>> To: Fred Burton
>> Cc: Korena Zucha
>> Subject: Re: Routine
>> Sent: Jan 5, 2010 9:53 AM
>>
>> Is gf on the same track?
>>
>> On 1/5/2010 10:52 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
>>   
>>     
>>> She's a fabricator.  We need to run her off.
>>>
>>> ------Original Message------
>>> From: Anya Alfano
>>> To: Fred Burton
>>> Cc: Korena Zucha
>>> Subject: Re: Routine
>>> Sent: Jan 5, 2010 9:49 AM
>>>
>>> His life gets 20x more difficult and complicated if her story isn't real
>>> or if she gets fired.  And he's already about to sink.  
>>>
>>> On 1/5/2010 10:44 AM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
>>>   
>>>     
>>>       
>>>> The dude doesn't believe it per GF.  Thinks she walks on water. 
>>>> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>>>>   
>>>>     
>>>>       
>>>>         
>>> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>>>   
>>>     
>>>       
>> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>>   
>>     
>
> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2010-01-05 17:17:10",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5464321_re-routine-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,zucha@stratfor.com",""
5464782,"Re: [Fwd: Re: background]
","Public displays of affection.  Do they look like they're a couple, or
just two people sitting in the same room?

On 1/11/2010 5:13 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
> huh?
>
> Anya Alfano wrote:
>   
>> Any PDA?
>>
>> On 1/11/2010 4:29 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
>>     
","2010-01-11 23:14:07",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5464782_re-fwd-re-background-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5464788,"Re: fyi
","Would she need a cover for weight loss related to an illness that people
already know about?  And, it makes the fiancee look pretty terrible in
the meantime.  But that could be good cover for when they break up--he
turned out to be so terrible, and she knew he would never accept her
when he told her to lose 40 pounds before they got married. 

On 1/12/2010 1:20 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
> May also be cover for illness weight loss?
>
> ------Original Message------
> From: Anya Alfano
> To: Fred Burton
> Cc: 'korena zucha'
> Cc: Scott Stewart
> Subject: Re: fyi
> Sent: Jan 12, 2010 12:18 PM
>
> Will look around for a castle. 
>
> The 40 pounds story fits the attention seeking patterns of behavior. 
> \"Poor Lauren, her fiance told her she has to lose weight....\"
>
> On 1/12/2010 1:12 PM, burton@stratfor.com wrote:
>   
>> See what you can find in that town.  She claimed marriage in a castle to me.  I've asked R for more data.  
>>
>> Also, she told Susan that the Lord demanded she loose 40 pounds before the wedding...
>>
>> ------Original Message------
>> From: Anya Alfano
>> To: Fred Burton
>> Cc: 'korena zucha'
>> Cc: Scott Stewart
>> Subject: Re: fyi
>> Sent: Jan 12, 2010 12:03 PM
>>
>> Has gf sent her away from the week so she can't be confronted while
>> Stick is in town? 
>>
>> Church wedding?  The UK has a lot of regulations about foreigners
>> getting married, including church weddings.
>>
>> On 1/12/2010 12:53 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
>>   
>>     
>>> Aberdineshire, Scotland
>>>
>>> On Jan 12, 2010, at 11:24 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
>>>
>>>   
>>>     
>>>       
>>>>> Do you know the exact location the wedding is supposed to be held?
>>>>>
>>>>> Reva Bhalla wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>       
>>>>>         
>>>>>           
>> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
>>   
>>     
>
> Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
","2010-01-12 19:25:37",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5464788_re-fyi-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5465308,"FOR NEW-TERN CATHERINE
","","2009-01-06 04:37:37",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5465308_for-new-tern-catherine-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","eurasia@stratfor.com,catherine.durbin@stratfor.com","attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc
attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc
attach/174/174276_FSU Parliaments.doc
attach/174/174277_FSU sites.doc
attach/175/175579_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc"
5466187,"[Fwd: [Eurasia] FOR NEW-TERN CATHERINE]
","","2009-01-23 22:00:16",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5466187_-fwd-eurasia-for-new-tern-catherine-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","marko.papic@stratfor.com","attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc
attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc
attach/174/174276_FSU Parliaments.doc
attach/174/174277_FSU sites.doc
attach/175/175579_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc"
5468829,"Re: INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Kremlin intrigue chatter
","   ah, but yes.... I always weigh everything that comes from russia....
   trusted source or not.

   Lauren Goodrich wrote:

     very trusted source who knows not to lie to me ;)
     My guess would be they're planning on how to counter the legal
     moves..... Ustinov is brilliant at this sort of thing and has wanted
     revenge on Chaika for a loooooong time.

     Reva Bhalla wrote:

       but we should still be wary that this info is coming from the Surkov
       clan, right?  any idea what they're up to?
       On Nov 1, 2009, at 3:28 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

         CODE: RU101
         PUBLICATION: yes
         ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
         SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Senior within the Kremlin circle -- Surkov  clan
         SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
         ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
         SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

         INSIGHT: Ustinov, Patrushev and Sechin held a meeting late Friday
         into Saturday. They claimed that they were meeting to discuss
         terrorism issues in the Southern Caucasus-something Patrushev has to
         update Medvedev and Putin on this week. But that excuse does not
         explain why Sechin was there, since that has nothing to do with his
         sphere of responsibility.
          
         LG: So we have the head of the FSB, Sechin & the guy who use to be
         the legal wrangler in order to protect pro-FSB businesses (Ustinov,
         who is married to Sechin's daughter) all meeting this weekend.
         Ustinov use to be Prosecutor General till Surkov's right hand Chaika
         booted him out of office. Let the plotting begin.
         --
         Lauren Goodrich
         Director of Analysis
         Senior Eurasia Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: 512.744.4311
         F: 512.744.4334
         lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     STRATFOR
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-11-01 23:16:51",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5468829_re-insight-russia-kremlin-intrigue-chatter-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
5471016,"Re: INSIGHT - RUSSIA - loooong conver with Deri...
","   Don't laugh, but.... bc he is still called \"son\" by Putin... (or so he
   thinks)
   His saving grace may be that Deri has too many connections abroad that are
   useful to the Kremlin (like into European banking or African/Asian
   leaders)

   Peter Zeihan wrote:

     omg -- deri's done

     lauren, grab whatever free trips you can from him

     when an oligarch who insists that he is too big to fail he has entered
     his final days

     does he not realize that his empire is closed for the recession? how
     could he possibly think he's important anymore?

     Lauren Goodrich wrote:

        
        
       **purple parts seem most important to me...
       Though there is a hell-of-a-lot-a info in here for us to consume on
       some of the most important businesses/ppl in Russia and parts of the
       world.
        
       CODE: RU103
       PUBLICATION: certain parts and put in a different way, yes
       ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Moscow
       SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Deripaska 
       SOURCES RELIABILITY: C
       ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
       SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
        
       SUMMARY
        
       What is apparently emerging in the corridors of power is a massive
       transfer of privately held shares to the State that will enable some
       oligarchs to escapethe risk of restructuring imposed by their bankers.
       If this operation succeeds it will once again be a matter of \"nice
       work if you can get it\".
        
       THE OLIGARCH'S POSITION
        
       Potanin and Deripaska are both in tough financial positions. Deripaska
       has the opinion that he is \"too big to fail\"... meaning that the
       Russian government can hardly do otherwise than help him (and Potanin
       as well).
        
       METALS SITUATION
        
       So there has been an intensification around a possible merger of
       Norilsk and Rusal, but things have taken an unexpected turn since the
       very public meeting on Jan. 13 in the Kremlin which was attended by
       Medvedev, Deripaska, Potanin (Interros), Prokhorov (Onexim), Usmanov
       (Metalloinvest), Vekselberg (Renova), Voloshin (new Norilsk board
       chief), Chemezov & Seching.
        
       The most probable outcome will be a merger of the two plus
       Metalloinvest and the metallurgical assets of Rostekhnologii (which
       means VSMPO Avisma). The State would hold 25% \"plus\". It is a highly
       irrelevant set-up, but when has that mattered.
        
       But the scene changed a few days later when Potanin let it be known
       that he had communicated new proposals to the government with a view
       to establishing a Russian equivalent of the Australian mining giant
       BHP Billiton, an idea that is becoming increasingly obsessive in
       Moscow.
        
       The idea(which is co-authored by Oleg Deripaska and backed by Viktor
       Vekselberg) consists of merging around Norilsk Nickel several
       metallurgical groups such as Metalloinvest, Mechel, the Evraz Group
       and even the potassium producer Uralkali that is currently the subject
       of a serious politico-financial battle.
        
       NEW MOVES BY KREMLIN ON COMPANIES
        
       Meanwhile, it is worth noting that Rusal no longer features in this
       potential make-up,  because Deripaska doesn't wish to give up control
       of the aluminium group in these conditions if it means\" sacrificing\"
       his shareholding in Norilsk.
        
       The brilliant idea behind this new proposal is that Potanin and
       Deripaska are suggesting that the State take over the debts of the
       companies concerned in exchange for a minimum golden share in the new
       conglomerate -- a suggestion that apparently did not figure on the
       agenda of the 13 January meeting in the Kremiln.
        
       In a separate proposal, Deripaska suggested that the State convert
       Rusal's six billion dollar debt to Russian public banks (of the
       group's estimated $17 billion total debt) to \"preferential non-voting
       \"shares.
        
       THE LOGICAL MERGER
        
       Plain and simple, the mega merger plan as concocted by Potanin does
       not have any clear industrial logic. Clearly, for some oligarchs the
       proposal made to the State is more like a last lifeline than a
       coherent and convincing industrial plan. Integrating steelmakers like
       Mechel and Evraz in a structure made up by Norilsk, Metalloinvest and
       VSMPO Avisma is a very complex undertaking whose synergies are not
       patently obvious.
        
       ASSESSING VALUE OF THE COMPANIES
        
       The media's reference to the Australian group BHP Billiton must be put
       into perspective. The Russian press puts the stock exchange
       capitalization value of the mining and metallurgical group advanced by
       Potanin and Deripaska at $70 to 100 billion. In the present financial
       circumstances this would be jumping the gun.
        
       If the present value of Norilsk Nickel, Mechel, Evraz and Uralkali
       were added together the sum of $14 billion is reached. Supposing that
       the Metalloinvest group were valued at $5 billion (one-third of its
       valuelast summer) the sum of $20 billion is reached to which may be
       added the metallurgical assets of Rosteknologii that are difficult to
       assess since, apart from VSMPO Avisma, it is not easy to comprehend
       its make-up. However, in spite of the fall in raw materials, BHP
       Billiton is still worth around $1 hundredbillion and the Brazilian
       group Vale more than $60 billion or so. Moreover, BHP Billiton was
       built up over time andover the course of 20 years has integrated
       assets, mostly Australian and SouthAfrican. Besides, it is well known
       that it decided against a hostile takeoverof Rio Tinto.
        
       METALS FALLOUT
        
       Norilsk is the main purveyor of wealth and jobs in the Krasnoyarsk
       region and in the Russian Far North, very difficult areas that cannot
       endure the consequences of mass unemployment. The same goes for Rusal
       that controls all Russia's aluminium mills in Siberia and in the
       Urals. But these two groups are experiencing difficult times due to
       the spectacular fall in metal prices. On 20 January, the Norilsk
       Nickel managing director Vladimir Strzhalkovsky indicated that he was
       expecting revenues of $8 million in 2009 compared to $14.3 billion
       expected in 2008, a fall of 44%.
        
       Of course their business analysts believe a net loss of 530 million
       dollars on the basis of an average price of $12,000 a tonne in 2009,
       down from $21,000 in2008. Their view is, \"we see no reason to hold
       Norilsk equity\".
        
       Rusal must also absorb the fall in aluminium prices and manage
       considerable indebtedness, much of it contracted from foreign banks.
       This is a state of emergency that is behind the return of Derispaska
       to Rusal's operational management when he replaced his old friend and
       associate Alexandre Bulygin on 18 January. His analysts estimate that
       a ton of aluminium produced in Rusal foundries in Russia costs $2.000
       while the current price of the metal is about $1,500 a ton.
        
       MISSING PIECES
        
       By the way, why leave out of the picture two other important Russian
       steelmaking groups like MMK and Severstal? Why not invite to the
       wedding Iskander Makhmudov's UGMK that operates in the copper sector?
       In any case, on 20 January, Alexandre Abramov, the chairman of the
       Evraz group (and along with Roman Abramovich its main shareholder) is
       not in favor such a tie-up. He said that half of his debts had already
       been the subject of a restructuring move and that he was not in any
       great hurry to divest other assets.
        
       REVERSE OF HISTORY
        
       In a word, this means therefore that some of the major Russian
       oligarchs want to put a new winning formula into play: they acquired
       these groups during the wave of privatization moves between 1995 and
       1997, sometimes thanks to \"Loan for Share\" a scenario invented at the
       time by Vladimir Potanin.
        
       The system enabled oligarchs to loan money to the Russian government
       in exchange for taking as security some of the country's most
       promising industrial assets (and notably Norilsk Nickel). Today they
       are suggesting a complete reversal of that system: after having cashed
       in billions of dollars in dividends since 2005 and hidden away a part
       of the cash flowing from the companies they control into offshore
       structures, they are now simply suggesting that the State take them
       back by converting \"stocked\" debts into shares in Russian companies,
       some of which are quoted on the LondonStock Exchange. . .
        
       They/We all wager that Sechin and Chemezov are so obsessed by the idea
       of creating a Russian BHP Billiton controlled by the State (and by
       extension by them) that they would be ready to make this gift to the
       oligarchs.
        
       SECHIN & CHEMEZOV'S POV
        
       Sechin and Chemezov are within an inch of succeeding. Moral hazard
       counts for little in Russia. Those who in the Kremlin and the White
       House champion the State taking control of the metallurgical and
       mining assets that they consider to be strategic will examine
       Potanin's proposal without scruples. The exact amount of the
       indebtedness of the companies concerned is not known but even if it is
       evaluated at around $20 - 25 billion, converting it into shares
       reserved to the State is tempting: no cash involved, the prospect to a
       return to better times from the second half of 2009 and the guarantee
       a stranglehold on the country's most important metallurgical and
       mining assets at knockdown prices while sparing those, at least
       temporarily, Deripaska.
        
        
       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       Stratfor
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

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 Analysts mailing list

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   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-02-03 14:49:07",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5471016_re-insight-russia-loooong-conver-with-deri-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
5475735,"Mini-INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Black August Syndrome 
","   **this is more for fun.... but wanted to send it on...
   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Senior within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   DISTRIBUTION: Eurasia
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   Have you seen RIA's story on the \"Black August Syndrome\"?  I would not
   forward such articles if it weren't timely.

   So brace yourself. August is upon us. In Russia, it has been a time of
   coup attempts, debilitating economic crises, financial meltdowns,
   bombings, and wars.

   The trend, of course, started on August 19, 1991, with the attempt to oust
   Gorbachev. For almost two decades, Russians have learned to expect the
   worst from the eighth month of the year, with 1991 seeing a coup and 2008
   war in the Caucasus.

   The other part to add is that Russia's current political era began in
   August. It was on the morning of August 9, 1999 when Yeltsin appointed
   Putin prime minister and anointed him as his chosen successor.

    

   From RIA:

   The litany of August chaos and woe reads like this:

   August 19, 1991 - Communist hardliners disgruntled at Soviet leader
   Mikhail Gorbachev's reforms launch an unsuccessful coup attempt that leads
   to the break-up of the Soviet Union.

   August 14, 1992 - The Georgian-Abkhazian war begins, with the conflict
   involving large numbers of Russian citizens.

   Early August 1994 - The notorious MMM pyramid scheme collapses, leaving
   millions of Russians without their life-savings, a sum believed to be up
   to $1.5 billion.

   August 24, 1995 - The Russian interbank credit system breaks down, leading
   to the ruin of 28 Russian banks.

   August 29, 1996 - A Russian Tupolev TU-154 crashes over the Arctic Ocean,
   all 141 people on board die.

   August 17, 1998 - The Russian government defaults on its foreign and
   domestic debt and the ruble loses two-thirds of its value in the next four
   weeks.

   August 7, 1999 - Chechen fighters invade Dagestan, signaling the start of
   the second Chechen war.

   August 8, 2000 - A bomb explodes in a pedestrian underpass in central
   Moscow killing 13 people.

   August 12, 2000 - The Russian nuclear submarine Kursk sinks in the Barents
   Sea; all 118 sailors on board die.

   August 8, 2002 - Floods and strong winds kill 59 people in the Russian
   Black sea city of Novorossiisk.

   August 19, 2002 - A military Mi-26 helicopter is shot down over Chechnya,
   126 servicemen die.

   August 1, 2003 - A suicide bomber attacks a military hospital in the
   Russian North Ossetia town of Mozdok, killing over 50.

   August 24, 2004 - Two Russian passenger planes are blown up by Chechen
   terrorists, over 90 people die.

   August 31, 2004 - A Chechen suicide bomber blows herself up outside
   Moscow's Rizhskaya metro station, killing 10. The next day, September 1,
   sees the start of the Beslan school siege.

   August 21, 2006 - Nationalists explode a bomb at Moscow's Cherkizovo
   market, killing 13.

   August 22, 2006 - A Russian Tu-154 plane crashes in Ukraine, 170 lose
   their lives.

   August 8-12, 2008 - Russia and Georgia fight a war over South Ossetia
   after Georgian forces attempt to bring the republic back under central
   control.

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-08-03 19:58:26",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5475735_mini-insight-russia-black-august-syndrome-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","watchofficer@stratfor.com",""
5476531,"INSIGHT - Chechnya - Putin/Kadyrov mtg 
","   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes, except the second graf
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Senior within the Kremlin circle, deals daily with
   security issues and folks  
   SOURCE PLACEMENT: High
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
    
   Putin and Kadyrov had a productive visit. Kadyrov vowed to keep his
   country in order and there will be a new series of covert actions inside
   of Chechnya over the next few weeks. Putin does not want the more public
   sweeps because of all of the poor press the Caucasus is receiving with the
   reporter and ngo assassinations.
    
   I should hedge that I can not say much on this topic, but the recent ngo
   assassinations are not exactly random. There is a campaign by Kadyrov to
   clamp down on any organization receiving grants from foreign donors at the
   moment. Kadryrov is ensuring that money isn't flowing to the wrong places,
   even if the campaigns  [LG: I would prefer not to publish this part]
    
   They also discussed how to continue handling Ingushetia. Until now, the
   Russians have left it mostly up to the Chechens. The Chechens have carried
   out significant operations in Ingushetia since the assassination attempt
   on the President. The operations that have taken place thus far in
   Ingushetia since June have been well planned and executed. From now on,
   Kadyrov's troops are responsible for operations near the border in the
   particularly tricky enclaves of Sunzhensky and Achkhoi-Martanovsky.  
    
   Russia is shifting some of its remaining forces that are still in the
   Caucasus into Ingushetia this week. The Kremlin has divided Ingushtia into
   various special-operation zones in which the insurgency has escalated.
   Russian troops are responsible for the more western regions near North
   Ossetia-the less difficult regions in my opinion, though it does limit how
   far the Chechens can move into the country, as well as, the backlash from
   some Ingush factions against the Chechen presence.  
    
   Did you hear of the one case this past week where a Voznesenskaya villager
   was killed as a sorceress? How is this region a challenge to us again?
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-08-25 16:46:20",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5476531_insight-chechnya-putin-kadyrov-mtg-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","watchofficer@stratfor.com",""
5480480,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Nashi militias 
","    

   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Senior within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts, CT, Briefers  
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Just a small crumb that I thought you would find humorous. Nashi is
   concerned over any social unrest hitting the streets over the economic
   situation. They have now been given permission to form militias, made up
   of youths armed with stun guns, to patrol Russia's streets to quell
   potential unrest. They are being armed by their leader. I'm sure the stun
   guns is just what they will start with and this will formalize more in the
   future.

    

    

    

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-08-12 22:12:08",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5480480_insight-russia-nashi-militias-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","watchofficer@stratfor.com",""
5482669,"Cyber Security Question...
","   Hey boys!
   Veni Markovski (Bulgaria's richest man, head of ICAAN & advisor to the US
   and EU on cyber stuff) is a pal of mine and wants to chat with Stratfor's
   person/people on cyber security. He's super low maintenance and friendly.
   Think he just wants to open diolague for y'all to be able to ask questions
   to him (he's a big Strat-fan). Who would like to speak with him? I can set
   it up so two people conference with him on the phone. Or if Nate has time,
   Veni does hold a house in DC.
   Let me know!
   Lauren
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-02-11 02:52:53",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5482669_cyber-security-question-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,goodrich@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,nathan.hughes@stratfor.com",""
5482958,"Greetings my Wedding Party members:
","   Hey you two.... I forgot as I began to send this out as my normal email
   address that you two aren't use to seeing my usual name on email, so I'm
   sending via my Strat account instead...... anyway... here's the message I
   sent to the others.... I shall get you into the Elizabeth swing of my name
   this next month, but didn't want to change me getting swept into spam
   right now:

   My darling Wedding Party,

   I have been asked by my Wedding Party orchestrators to connect with each
   member and ask if they would prefer to be contacted by the foresaid
   coordinator by email, mail or phone (the latter being the least
   desirable)-- in order to coordinate all engagement/wedding arrangements.
   Please reply to me with what you prefer. Also reply with what contact
   information you prefer to have connected through (ie, your address or
   email).

   We're sending out some very rustic and preliminary information this week.

   Blessed be those that go through this process with Andrew and I,
   Thank you all!
   Ella
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-01-11 07:40:40",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5482958_greetings-my-wedding-party-members-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,kristen.cooper@stratfor.com",""
5485312,"Re: [Military] [CT]   Woodward - Obama's Wars ** oh my...
","Agree.  Our efforts in Afghanistan have been a failure (no offense to
you and your personal heroic efforts.)  To think we can defeat the
Afghanis is like thinking we can stop the flow of drugs into CONUS.  

The blow-back against the Barry Hussein WH will be via diplomatic
channels as Woodwards statements and book reviews echo around the
world.  Plants the seed of doubt and distrust in the minds of foreign
govts as we try to hold talks.    Regardless of what you may think of
Woodward, folks listen to what he has to say. 

Timing of his book release was brilliant.   Another NY Times bestseller. 

Benjamin Sledge wrote:
> Hardly news, but the question looms, with what Obama's doing and like
> he said in that report, do we really want to be locked into
> Afghanistan for another 10 years?  While a quagmire, we have to wonder
> what the best course of action in Afghanistan would be.  My personal
> opinion is pull conventional troops and let USASOCCOM and the CIA have
> a freakin field day and continue covert operations.  Pit guerilla
> warfare against guerilla warfare and keep the American tax payer none
> the wiser as to what ruthless methods we used to gather intel and
> curtail radical Islamic terrorism
> -- 
> BENJAMIN
> SLEDGE
> Senior Graphic Designer
> www.stratfor.com
> (e) ben.sledge@stratfor.com
> (ph) 512.744.4320
> (fx) 512.744.4334
>
> On Sep 22, 2010, at 8:02 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
>
>> I'm sure Foggy Bottom wires are on over-drive denying any of the
>> information as true.   Our lovely Paki allies (ugh) will be \"highly
>> distraught\".  The back-channels from USEMB IBAD will cause constipation
>> amongst the bow-ties.  I also like the way this has been timed for
>> UNGA.   All first term Presidencies are chaos.
>>
>> Sean Noonan wrote:
>>> very little of this actually seems like news.
>>>
>>> Fred Burton wrote:
>>>> http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/sep/22/obama-presidency-hobbled-discord-book
>>>>
>>>> The Obama presidency is hobbled by discord and mutual contempt
>>>> among its
>>>> senior policy-makers and top generals according to a new book which is
>>>> likely to damage the administration in November's congressional
>>>> elections and undermine its efforts in Afghanistan.
>>>>
>>>> The book, Obama's Wars, by the veteran investigative journalist Bob
>>>> Woodward, is out on Monday, but extracts published overnight by the
>>>> Washington Post and the New York Times make it clear that it will hurt
>>>> the administration in the runup to mid-term elections, in which
>>>> Democrats are already struggling and in which they are expected to lose
>>>> control of the House of Representatives.
>>>>
>>>> The book also portrays a president anxious to pull US troops out of
>>>> Afghanistan as soon as possible, and at odds with his military
>>>> commanders and some senior advisers, who openly question whether his
>>>> strategy will work. It is likely to be read as evidence that the
>>>> attempt
>>>> to divide the Taliban is having more success dividing Washington.
>>>>
>>>> Woodward appears to have had access to secret memos and accounts of
>>>> sensitive discussions within the administration as it tried to
>>>> decide on
>>>> its Afghanistan strategy a year ago. It is already known that the
>>>> generals asked for more troops than the 30,000 finally agreed by Obama,
>>>> and that vice-president Joe Biden argued for a more limited war effort
>>>> aimed principally at targeting al-Qaida. Woodward reveals that Obama
>>>> resolved the dispute by designing his blueprint, a six-page document
>>>> which he presented to his White House staff on 29 November. It approved
>>>> the extra troops but laid down sharp restrictions on what the military
>>>> could and could not do in Afghanistan.
>>>>
>>>> \"This needs to be a plan about how we're going to hand it off and get
>>>> out of Afghanistan,\" Obama is reported to have said. \"Everything we're
>>>> doing has to be focused on how we're going to get to the point where we
>>>> can reduce our footprint. It's in our national security interest. There
>>>> cannot be any wiggle room.\"
>>>>
>>>> He is also quoted as telling the defence secretary, Robert Gates, and
>>>> the secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, in late October last year:
>>>> \"I'm
>>>> not doing 10 years … I'm not doing long-term nation-building. I am not
>>>> spending a trillion dollars.\"
>>>>
>>>> The book reveals that senior officials harboured doubts over
>>>> whether the
>>>> \"hybrid\" plan would work. Biden warned that escalation would mean
>>>> \"we're
>>>> locked into Vietnam\". Lieutenant General Douglas Lute, the president's
>>>> Afghanistan adviser, is described as believing that the strategy review
>>>> carried out by the administration did not \"add up\" to the decision
>>>> ultimately made. Richard Holbrooke, the president's special
>>>> representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, is quoted as saying that
>>>> the strategy \"can't work\".
>>>>
>>>> Among the other revelations made by Obama's Wars:
>>>>
>>>> • US intelligence reported to the White House that the Afghan
>>>> president,
>>>> Hamid Karzai, was suffering from manic depression, and was taking
>>>> medication.
>>>>
>>>> • Obama believes that the US can \"absorb\" another terrorist attack. He
>>>> told Woodward: \"We'll do everything we can to prevent it, but even a
>>>> 9/11, even the biggest attack ever … we absorbed it and we are
>>>> stronger\".
>>>>
>>>> • The CIA has set up a 3,000-man Afghan paramilitary unit, known as the
>>>> Counterterrorism Pursuit Teams, used for covert cross-border operations
>>>> against al-Qaida and Taliban havens.
>>>>
>>>> • US intelligence told Obama that Pakistan was not a reliable
>>>> partner in
>>>> the Afghan conflict, either unwilling or unable to stop elements in its
>>>> own intelligence service from supporting the Afghan insurgents.
>>>> Obama is
>>>> quoted as saying: \"We need to make clear to people that the cancer
>>>> is in
>>>> Pakistan.\"
>>>>
>>>> One of the most striking elements of Woodward's account is the
>>>> ferocious
>>>> backbiting among senior members of Obama's team.
>>>>
>>>> During disputes over the Afghanistan strategy, General David Petraeus,
>>>> then head of Central Command, told his aides that the
>>>> administration was
>>>> \"[expletive] with the wrong guy\". Petraeus describes David Axelrod, the
>>>> president's top political adviser, as \"a complete spin doctor\". The
>>>> national security adviser, James Jones, refers to the White House
>>>> political team as \"the water bugs,\" the \"politburo,\" the \"mafia,\"
>>>> or the
>>>> \"campaign set\".
>>>>
>>>
>>> -- 
>>>
>>> Sean Noonan
>>>
>>> Tactical Analyst
>>>
>>> Office: +1 512-279-9479
>>>
>>> Mobile: +1 512-758-5967
>>>
>>> Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
>>>
>>> www.stratfor.com <http://www.stratfor.com>
>>>
>
","2010-09-22 17:28:14",1,"2012-04-24 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5485312_re-military-ct-woodward-obama-s-wars-oh-my-.html","burton@stratfor.com","mailto:military@stratfor.com","ct@stratfor.com,military@stratfor.com",""
5485587,"New-tern info
","","2008-09-03 16:44:45",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5485587_new-tern-info-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","christya.parobii@stratfor.com","attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc
attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc
attach/174/174277_FSU sites.doc
attach/175/175579_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc"
5485797,"Re: Greetings from Stratfor
","   Dar Veni,
   My humblest apologies, but your email was blocked by my email filters, but
   I have that fixed now.
   I am available to speak with you on your time since I know you are
   traveling.
   My cell phone number is 281-460-9382.
   Just let me know about when you'll call and I'll make myself available.
   Apologies again on missing your initial email,
   Lauren

   Veni Markovski wrote:

     Dear Laureen,
     we've exchanged some emails, and last I wrote you that I'd be happy to
     talk to you, but didn't get a return email as to when is good time.

     I am in New York only today and tomorrow, leaving again for
     Russia/Turkmenistan/Bulgaria.

     Please, advise.

     veni

     At 01:46 PM 8/14/2008  -0500, you wrote:

       Mr. Markovski,

       Fred Burton passed along your information to me, saying you were
       interested in speaking to someone at Stratfor who deals with the
       region. Sorry for the delay in contacting you, but the war took all my
       attention I admit.

       I am the Senior Eurasia analyst and admit to having recognized your
       name off the bat. I know you do much business all around Eurasia,
       especially Eastern Europe and Russia. I would love to hear your
       thoughts on the recent events, especially since you are so deeply
       hooked into the region.

       Let me know when you would like to chat; my email and contact number
       is below.

       Cheers,
       Lauren
       --
       Lauren E. Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       Stratfor
       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       <mailto:lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com>lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-09-09 19:19:48",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5485797_re-greetings-from-stratfor-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","veni@veni.com",""
5486602,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Deripaska's business 
","   CODE: RU103
   PUBLICATION: sure
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Moscow
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Deripaska
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: high (esp bc this is about himself)
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION:  Analysts
   HANDLER: Lauren
    
   A few things from my Deripaska dinner...
    
   ON RUSAL & THE STATE
    
   Deripaska has a special deal with the state on Rusal now that not only
   keeps him in power, but will ensure Rusal is the focus of the state in the
   long term.
    
   As publicized, Deripaska is putting 10 percent of his stakes on the
   market. This will drop his shares by 10 percent from 57 percent down to 47
   percent. Seven percent of that will be sold openly and the State via VEB
   will take 3 percent.
    
   The deal cut is for Deripaska and VEB to jointly run their shares
   together, keeping Deripaska the acting manager of Rusal-a little gift from
   the State. But it also ensures that the State has a say in Deripaska's
   work and the future of Rusal. The State has deemed Rusal a highly
   strategic and critical company in which they wish to always have a hand
   in.
    
   A few other details, most of which are public... Deripaska owns $16.8
   billion to over 70 banks. VEB gave Deripaska $4.5 billion and could give
   another $625 million. Prokhorov has already reached a deal to swap some of
   the debt for 5.2 percent of shares, raising his share to 19.2 percent.
    
   OTHER PROJECTS
    
   Deripaska is also looking to buy a major chunk of Austrian construction
   firm Strabag (LG: which I have seen building alllll over Moscow right now,
   moreso than Luzkhov's construction firms-which is hilarious). He has until
   Oct 2010 to buy the firm. Strabag has had serious problems with \"Moscow
   authorities\"... meaning Luzhkov. If Deripaska buys it, then Luzhkov would
   have a heavy adversary in the construction field. Deripaska already owns
   Transstroi, so its work with Strabag is only natural.
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-12-10 21:03:39",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5486602_insight-russia-deripaska-s-business-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","watchofficer@stratfor.com",""
5486786,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA - no one wants to be on Forbes List
","   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   It has now been deemed in Russia that if one flaunts their wealth at times
   like these then they are \"unpatriotic.\" Forbes has been inundated with
   phone calls to not include them on the Billionairea**s list. In Russia it
   is highly unfashionable to be on the Forbes list for 3 reasons. First off,
   it is actually not really part of Russian culture/mentality originally to
   flash the cash around. This is something that came with the Oligarchs
   under Yeltsin. Secondly, as the  mentality is shifting back to the former
   (anti-flash) lifestyles, the Oligarchs are looked down upon. For example,
   it is considered better to be like Putin who still drives his fathera**s
   Lada from the 1970s (LG: *eye roll*). That is why the silovarchs are more
   accepted now and the oligarchs are looked down upon. People are hurting
   inside of Russia and so no one looks well upon unnecessary extravagance.
   Third, those that are left with money inside of Russia dona**t want the
   government to know about it, so the Forbes list is now considered an
   impending death list.
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-03-19 11:49:36",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5486786_insight-russia-no-one-wants-to-be-on-forbes-list-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","kevin.stech@stratfor.com,eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
5486913,"Strat-subscription for a source?
","   Hey John...
   May I get a subscription for my source?
   Name: Veni Markovski
   Email: Veni@Veni.com
   Thanks so much!!
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-10-17 15:05:56",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5486913_strat-subscription-for-a-source-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","gibbons@stratfor.com,goodrich@stratfor.com",""
5487384,"RE: Strat-subscription for a source?
","   Hey Lauren,

    

   This guy is done.  Username is the email address and the password is
   stratfor (all lower case)

    

    

   John Gibbons

   Stratfor

   Customer Service Manager

   T: +1-512-744-4305

   F: +1-512-744-4334

   gibbons@stratfor.com

   www.stratfor.com

    

    

   From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
   Sent: Friday, October 17, 2008 8:06 AM
   To: John Gibbons; Lauren Goodrich
   Subject: Strat-subscription for a source?

    

   Hey John...
   May I get a subscription for my source?
   Name: Veni Markovski
   Email: Veni@Veni.com
   Thanks so much!!

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-11-03 21:04:35",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5487384_re-strat-subscription-for-a-source-.html","gibbons@stratfor.com","","goodrich@stratfor.com",""
5488026,"RE: Story
","   Tony, I do love your optimism but I expect many more Bilals.  The money
   for you is of course a different situation since you are on the Stratfor
   team.  I am not too worried.  What I do need is some time for one of your
   initial recruits to provide something good.  Something I can take in to
   the meeting with the Financial officer  :)   You know the routine.
    

   V/R Bob Rushing

     -----Original Message-----
     From: tony [mailto:atsullivan4321@comcast.net]
     Sent: Monday, January 17, 2005 11:27 AM
     To: Bob Rushing
     Subject: Re: Story

     Bob:
      
     Not at all a problem.  I know that this goes with the business.  He is
     actually telling us a lot that we need to know (about himself!).
      
     However, I do hope for dramatically better results from all or most of
     my other recruitees.  Now, I have done what I can to communicate with
     all of them, and you and Anya have of course been copied on everything. 
     I will not say more about these folks, and will leave it to Anya and you
     to get them what they need to have, as soon and as appropriately as
     possible.
      
     Bilal aside, I do think we have an outstanding group, at least
     potentially.  I am sorry and embarrassed that the first of my recruitees
     (Bilal) turned out to be such a pain.  My guess is that things will go
     radically better with most of the others.
      
     Now, I think we need to think about what my future travel schedule will
     be, and when.
      
     One small point.  (Actually, not so small).  Unless I am mistaken, Ron
     set aside something like $6000 for 12 months for my travel.  That was
     well before you appeared on the scene, and we started to talk the way we
     now are.  Depending on both short and long-term plans, that figure may
     need to be revisited.
      
     We make a GREAT team!
      
     Tony
      
     Tony
      
     ginal Message -----

       From: Bob Rushing
       To: tony
       Sent: Monday, January 17, 2005 11:48 AM
       Subject: RE: Story
       Sorry this guy is so annoying for you Tony.  There will be a lot of
       this as we go.  Another reason to get you out of the traffic as soon
       as we can.  You get paid to find potential, I get paid to deal with
       their silliness.  I don't have the time or money to do your travel and
       you probably don't have my patience for this.  I have been digging
       thru hundreds to find the one or two all my adult life.
        
       We make a good team. 
        
       next time you go out we will send you fully loaded to Spot,
       Recruit, give a Hushmail and say bye bye.  Your job should be fun.
        

       V/R Bob Rushing

         -----Original Message-----
         From: tony [mailto:atsullivan4321@comcast.net]
         Sent: Monday, January 17, 2005 10:26 AM
         To: Bob Rushing
         Subject: Re: Story

         Bob:
          
         Thanks much!
          
         Tony

           ----- Original Message -----
           From: Bob Rushing
           To: tony ; Bilalkinguk
           Cc: Anya E Harshey
           Sent: Monday, January 17, 2005 10:56 AM
           Subject: RE: Story
           Bilal,
            
           We have known for some time that he is dead.  I doubt you will
           find anyone willing to reward you for the details of his death but
           you never know...I do wish you the best.  As for Stratfor I have
           explained how we do business here and I am sorry it does not work
           for you.  Unfortunately you are a new source and I won't invest
           money in a unknown/unproven source. 
            
           Your future situation is as it has always been concerning
           Stratfor.  Once it has been determined that you have provided
           legitimate information that was difficult or impossible for us to
           get anywhere else, you begin your personal history with us.  I do
           not even seriously consider compensation until that has
           occurred.  
            
           I look forward to reviewing any information you have to submit at
           some future date.

           V/R Bob Rushing

             -----Original Message-----
             From: Bilalkinguk [mailto:bilalkinguk@yahoo.co.uk]
             Sent: Monday, January 17, 2005 1:23 AM
             To: tony; Bob Rushing
             Subject: Story

             I understand, but I am afraid if I give them my info about the
             story they would claim that they had this info as they said for
             the first story. I can tell them just one thing about that man,
             he has been killed. I will not give  more details before I know
             my reward and my future situation.
             Best
             Bilal

             tony <atsullivan4321@comcast.net> wrote:

               THey simply cannot do that until you have A:READY establidhed
               a credible
               record. I have already asked.

               As I told you before, they do not yet believe that the story
               you mention is
               credible. As I said before. That is the simple fact of the
               matter.

               ----- Original Message -----
               From: \"Bilalkinguk\"
               To: \"tony\"
               Sent: Sunday, January 16, 2005 2:36 PM
               Subject: Travel

               > Thanks, I think if they are interested in that story
               > they should pay my travel expenses asap to come there
               > and provide it to them.
               > Bilal
               >>
               >> I think now we are finally getting everything
               >> together.
               >>
               >> Hussein
               >> ----- Original Message -----
               >> From: \"Bilalkinguk\"
               >> To: \"tony\"
               >> Sent: Sunday, January 16, 2005 11:37 AM
               >> Subject: Re: Reminder
               >>
               >>
               >> > Let's stay in touch through this email address.
               >> >> From: \"Bilalkinguk\"
               >> >> To: \"tony\"
               >> >> Sent: Monday, January 10, 2005 12:40 PM
               >> >> Subject: Re: Reminder
               >> >>
               >> >>
               >> >> > Okay looking forward to hear from you later
               >> today.
               >> >> >
               >> >>
               >> >
               >>
               > ___________________________________________________________
               >> >> >> > ALL-NEW Yahoo! Messenger - all new features
               >> -
               >> >> even
               >> >> >> more fun!
               >> >> >> > http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com
               >> >> >> >
               >> >> >>
               >> >> >>
               >> >> >>
               >> >> >
               >> >> >
               >> >> >
               >> >> >
               >> >> >
               >> >> >
               >> >>
               >> >
               >>
               > ___________________________________________________________
               >> >> > ALL-NEW Yahoo! Messenger - all new features -
               >> even
               >> >> more fun!
               >> >> > http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com
               >> >> >
               >> >>
               >> >>
               >> >>
               >> >
               >> >
               >> >
               >> >
               >> >
               >> >
               >>
               > ___________________________________________________________
               >> > ALL-NEW Yahoo! Messenger - all new features - even
               >> more fun!
               >> > http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com
               >> >
               >>
               >>
               >>
               >
               >
               >
               >
               > __________________________________
               > Do you Yahoo!?
               > Yahoo! Mail - now with 250MB free storage. Learn more.
               > http://info.mail.yahoo.com/mail_250
               >

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             Do you Yahoo!?
             Yahoo! Mail - Helps protect you from nasty viruses.
","2005-01-17 18:52:17",1,"2012-03-15 04:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5488026_re-story-.html","rushing@stratfor.com","","harshey@stratfor.com,atsullivan4321@comcast.net",""
5492226,"Re: for today
","   Obama doesn't get to Moscow until Monday... not Sunday.
   I'll have the schedule for you in a few hours.

   Peter Zeihan wrote:

      

     Light day today. Two things to keep in mind.

      

     1)      Tomorrow is a weekend, so ideally we would like a piece to post
     Friday and Saturday morning. The Saturday piece should be a Q&D guide to
     the Obama-Putin summit that begins on Sunday. Any ideas for what we
     could do for Friday?

     2)      All regional analysts touch base with Reva today to have a chat
     on all things quarterly. We can't produce the document until after the
     summit, but we want to make sure we have as many ducks in a row as we
     possibly can before Monday.

      

      

      

      

     JAPAN MOVING SOME TROOPS - 1

     Good opportunity to produce a brief on Japan's evolving defense posture.

      

     TURKISH NAVAL ORDER OF BATTLE - ?

     Not for today most likely, but we need to do a top-to-bottom review of
     the Turkish military. The navy is a good place as any to begin.

      

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-07-02 16:16:12",1,"2012-03-11 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5492226_re-for-today-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
5492675,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA - FSB as watchdogs during crisis
","   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle, though from
   Surkov's clan.  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   The FSB is about to step into the banking system and certain businesses to
   make sure what they are reporting as far as assets, revenues and holdings
   (esp foreign currency) are correct. This will be a mass deployment of
   forces within the business and financial sectors. They will act as
   observers to how the banks and businesses use what they are loaned. Just
   the presence of the FSB within these firms will be a deterrent for those
   who wish to cheat the state or get rich off the crisis.
    
   LG: does Russia have enough manpower within the FSB to handle this?
    
   Of course. But then those guilty will be sorted into those that need
   punishment (in which the FSB or ProsGen office will handle them or those
   that need to be reformed.

   **have asked him if this also includes foreign firms... have not heard
   back yet.
    
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-02-05 15:20:54",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5492675_insight-russia-fsb-as-watchdogs-during-crisis-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","mfriedman@stratfor.com,analysts@stratfor.com,briefers@stratfor.com",""
5493154,"[Eurasia] For the New-Terns
","9","2008-06-27 20:58:41",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5493154_-eurasia-for-the-new-terns-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com","eurasia@stratfor.com","attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc
attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc
attach/177/177181_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc"
5494566,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA - corruption & state finances 
","   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   The PG office estimates that $120 billion was lost in 2008 to corruption
   out of the annual budget, while this next year it is looking to trend to
   $240 billion because of the recession. Western groups look at this via
   Russia's size, influence of the bureaucracy, compromised court system and
   lack of independent media.
    
   However the Kremlin (both Putin and Medvedev) are looking at fighting this
   corruption to help with the government's financial problems. The
   government can hardly hope to mitigate the crisis if one-third or more of
   its anticrisis money is being siphoned right off the top.
    
   The PG office is looking at a few different ways to counter corruption (on
   Putin and Medvedev's order) including forcing state officials to issue
   asset declarations and comparing it to the FSB's assessment, especially as
   Russia has been looking at Russian assets in global tax havens.
    
    
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-03-18 20:59:13",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5494566_insight-russia-corruption-and-state-finances-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","kevin.stech@stratfor.com,eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
5495888,"Re: INSIGHT - Russia's view of Moldova's revolution
","   I hear you.... Moldova has Romania's involvement written all over it
   though

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

     just seems a little odd that we have this seemingly Western-backed color
     revolution take place in Moldova the same week that we have a
     Russian-backed revolution in Georgia...
     maybe Russia could have stirred things up in Moldova to give it free
     rein to act elsewhere..? i dunno, just thinking aloud
     On Apr 8, 2009, at 2:28 PM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       problem is their placement in Moldova... their military presence in
       Transdneistria is tough to move into Moldova proper bc a river
       separates the two regions iwth only 1 bridge.
       Could this be a sneaky propaganda move? sure. but hard for russia to
       do much overtly, though it has tons of covert tentacles on the ground.

       Reva Bhalla wrote:

         i know this is conspirational, but what if the Russians actually
         started things up in Moldova to give it an excuse to take more
         aggressive action in the region?
         On Apr 8, 2009, at 10:31 AM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

           CODE: RU101
           PUBLICATION: yes
           ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
           SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle  
           SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
           ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
           SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
            
           Duma discussed today the fact that Russian intelligence services
           believe that US and Romanian intelligence forces worked together
           to spark and influence the situation in Moldova. The West could
           not stand Moldova being neutral ground to they have once again
           created mayhem to get what it wants. One topic discussed in Duma
           was that Romania is looking to break Moldova apart and most likely
           take what is left for itself.
            
            
           --
           Lauren Goodrich
           Director of Analysis
           Senior Eurasia Analyst
           STRATFOR
           T: 512.744.4311
           F: 512.744.4334
           lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
           www.stratfor.com

       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-04-08 21:39:26",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5495888_re-insight-russia-s-view-of-moldova-s-revolution-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
5496389,"[Fwd: New-tern info]
","2","2008-09-03 16:48:06",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5496389_-fwd-new-tern-info-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","goodrich@stratfor.com","attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc
attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc
attach/174/174277_FSU sites.doc
attach/175/175579_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc"
5496794,"Re: INSIGHT - Perspective from Relief Agency on Swine Flu....
","   Fred and I are starting an Intern antiviral lab... the meds won't work,
   but those that buy them won't know it

   Fred Burton wrote:

     Give/sell my arse.  This is Russia.  We steal. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2009 12:42 PM
     To: Fred Burton
     Cc: 'Secure List'; 'EurAsia AOR'; 'Kristen Cooper'; 'Bayless Parsley';
     'Kevin Stech'
     Subject: Re: INSIGHT - Perspective from Relief Agency on Swine Flu....
     I already have calls into UTMB and Methodist to see if they have any
     \"extras\" they're willing to give/sell me

     Fred Burton wrote:

       Good way for Russian OC to make money.  Knock off a few Tamiflu loads
       or make your own and sell it as Tamiflu.   On that note, we need our
       own stash of Tamiflu.  Call Ivan and get us a case or two. 
        

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2009 12:37 PM
       To: 'Secure List'; EurAsia AOR; Kristen Cooper; Bayless Parsley; Kevin
       Stech
       Subject: INSIGHT - Perspective from Relief Agency on Swine Flu....
       **this is an email thread that has been ongoing since around 4am this
       morning between my assistant within my foundation in Russia and I....
       just thought you would like to see this through the eyes of someone
       who has a Relief Aid Organization abroad and how the government in
       Russia is also looking at it.
        
        
       ASSISTANT: I was contacted by the Emergency Services, who say they are
       taking stock of each medical facility's antiviral levels.
        
       ME: Sounds like a huge task by them. I am shocked by them reacting so
       fast on this but can't imagine the scope of doing so in Russia.
        
       ASSISTANT: Actually, most medical facilities here have state
       representatives except for the ten or so privately owned medical
       centers in the country-four of which fall under your Foundation.
        
       ME: ah, so I'm being hunted down for my medical supplies... great.
        
       ASSISTANT: didn't seem like they were hunting, but just wanting
       numbers of antivirals in case of the outbreak comes here.
        
       ME: that's hunting... if I give them a number then my facilities \"get
       broken into\"
        
       ASSISTANT: true. But they specifically wanted to know if you had stock
       of tamiflu and the other one that starts with an R.
        
       ME: When I spoke with Kremlin pals earlier today, they said that
       Russia had large stockpiles of Tamiflu on hand because of the Avian
       crisis in 06.
        
       ASSISTANT: They probably just want to make sure they know where it all
       is just in case this becomes a large epidemic.
        
       ME: true. Also, if it is a major epidemic my 6K kids can die for all
       they care... as long as the silovarchs are safe. Do we even have
       Tamiflu stockpiles? I thought it was too expensive, so we went with
       something else.
        
       ASSISTANT: no Tamiflu or the other. We only have Amadtadine and
       Symmetrel. The poor people's drugs.
        
       ME: did you tell them that?
        
       ASSISTANT: yes and then they didn't want to know how much of that we
       had. Apparently our lowly medicine is no good.
        
       ME: great... on the one hand this will prevent my facilities from
       being broken into this week, but on the other hand should Swine Flu
       hit Siberia, my orphanages will look like Jonestown.
        
       ASSISTANT: What's Jonestown?
        
       ME: Google it.
        
        
        
       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     STRATFOR
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-04-28 19:52:27",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5496794_re-insight-perspective-from-relief-agency-on-swine-flu-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,eurasia@stratfor.com,kristen.cooper@stratfor.com,kevin.stech@stratfor.com,bayless.parsley@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
5498748,"Re: Stratfor's Kremlin Model
","   telling surkov no and not providing an alternative?

   that's just suicide

   Lauren Goodrich wrote:

     as long as you give me options for fun

     Peter Zeihan wrote:

       all the time i bet -- you can't kill x, but feel free to have fun with
       y

       Lauren Goodrich wrote:

         does Medvedev ever tell Surkov that? Always squashing my fun. :-(

         Peter Zeihan wrote:

           no executions of the analysts

           we have some extra researchers however....

             Lauren Goodrich wrote:

               I like this game... can I really make the order?

               Marko Papic wrote:

                 Hmmm... I don't really care whether you live or die... In
                 fact, I find your chess prowess a good substitute of
                 otherworldly manliness in your otherwise wimpy persona.
                 Nonetheless, if ordered by my puppet master, I will make
                 your internal organs slowly bleed you to death.

                 ----- Original Message -----
                 From: \"Lauren Goodrich\" <goodrich@stratfor.com>
                 To: \"Karen Hooper\" <hooper@stratfor.com>
                 Cc: \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>, \"Reva Bhalla\"
                 <bhalla@stratfor.com>, \"Peter Zeihan\" <zeihan@stratfor.com>,
                 \"Matt Gertken\" <matt.gertken@stratfor.com>, \"nate hughes\"
                 <nathan.hughes@stratfor.com>, \"Kristen Cooper\"
                 <kristen.cooper@stratfor.com>, \"Kevin Stech\"
                 <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>
                 Sent: Monday, November 17, 2008 12:14:17 PM GMT -05:00
                 Columbia
                 Subject: Re: Stratfor's Kremlin Model

                 hey... you live outside of big bad russia though & you have
                 tons of US backers.

                 Karen Hooper wrote:

                   That's right, i'm an ineffective democratist in an
                   authoritarian state. and you ALL WANT ME DEAD.

                   I see how it is.

                   Marko Papic wrote:

                     AHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA

                     Sweet!

                     ----- Original Message -----
                     From: \"Lauren Goodrich\" <goodrich@stratfor.com>
                     To: \"Kevin Stech\" <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>
                     Cc: \"Karen Hooper\" <hooper@stratfor.com>, \"Reva Bhalla\"
                     <bhalla@stratfor.com>, \"Peter Zeihan\"
                     <zeihan@stratfor.com>, \"Marko Papic\"
                     <marko.papic@stratfor.com>, \"Matt Gertken\"
                     <matt.gertken@stratfor.com>, \"nate hughes\"
                     <nathan.hughes@stratfor.com>, \"Kristen Cooper\"
                     <kristen.cooper@stratfor.com>
                     Sent: Monday, November 17, 2008 12:08:08 PM GMT -05:00
                     Columbia
                     Subject: Re: Stratfor's Kremlin Model

                     Karen is officially Kasparov (Reva recognized it)...
                     they are both freedom-loving, loud-mouth hippies. :)

                     Kevin Stech wrote:

                       Yes, good point.  You haven't made it till you got a
                       kremlin double.

                       Karen Hooper wrote:

                         Pffft. Whatever, at least you HAVE a kremlin double.

                         Kevin Stech wrote:

                           THAT'S COOL I SEE HOW IT IS

                           Lauren Goodrich wrote:

                             I am trying to hedge my recommendation for Kev,
                             y'all.... I feel bad...  you're not helping. 
                             ;-)

                             Reva Bhalla wrote:

                               ahahahahahhahahaaaa
                               i think peter just called kevy bear an ass
                               ----- Original Message -----
                               From: \"Peter Zeihan\" <zeihan@stratfor.com>
                               To: \"Lauren Goodrich\" <goodrich@stratfor.com>
                               Cc: \"Kevin Stech\" <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>,
                               \"Marko Papic\" <marko.papic@stratfor.com>,
                               \"Matt Gertken\" <matt.gertken@stratfor.com>,
                               \"Reva Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>,
                               \"nate hughes\" <nathan.hughes@stratfor.com>,
                               \"Karen Hooper\" <hooper@stratfor.com>, \"Kristen
                               Cooper\" <kristen.cooper@stratfor.com>
                               Sent: Thursday, November 13, 2008 7:35:36 AM
                               GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
                               Subject: Re: Stratfor's Kremlin Model

                               deeply
                               truly

                               he's an ass

                               Lauren Goodrich wrote:

                                 NO! Gref is deeply respected. 

                                 Sent from my iPhone
                                 On Nov 12, 2008, at 9:38 PM, Kevin Stech
                                 <kevin.stech@stratfor.com> wrote:

                                   so the analogy runs pretty deep? ;-)

                                   Marko Papic wrote:

                                     AHAHAHHAHA, you forgot to mention that
                                     also everyone hates him!

                                     ----- Original Message -----
                                     From: \"Lauren Goodrich\"
                                     <goodrich@stratfor.com>
                                     To: \"Marko Papic\"
                                     <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
                                     Cc: \"Matt Gertken\"
                                     <matt.gertken@stratfor.com>, \"Peter
                                     Zeihan\" <zeihan@stratfor.com>, \"Reva
                                     Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>,
                                     \"nate hughes\"
                                     <nathan.hughes@stratfor.com>, \"Kevin
                                     Stech\" <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>,
                                     \"Karen Hooper\" <hooper@stratfor.com>,
                                     \"Kristen Cooper\"
                                     <kristen.cooper@stratfor.com>
                                     Sent: Tuesday, November 11, 2008 3:54:03
                                     PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
                                     Subject: Re: Stratfor's Kremlin Model

                                     NEW ADDITION.....
                                     Kevin as German Gref.... Gref is former
                                     Economic Minister & one of the most
                                     genius minds to serve in Russia...
                                     however, he is highly aggressive in his
                                     manner and treats everyone like they're
                                     dumb.
                                     (sorry kev... luv you.... hey, i called
                                     you a genius)

                                     Marko Papic wrote:

                                       hmmmm... ok, sold.

                                       ----- Original Message -----
                                       From: \"Lauren Goodrich\"
                                       <goodrich@stratfor.com>
                                       To: \"Marko Papic\"
                                       <marko.papic@stratfor.com>
                                       Cc: \"Matt Gertken\"
                                       <matt.gertken@stratfor.com>, \"Peter
                                       Zeihan\" <zeihan@stratfor.com>, \"Reva
                                       Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>,
                                       \"nate hughes\"
                                       <nathan.hughes@stratfor.com>, \"Kevin
                                       Stech\" <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>,
                                       \"Karen Hooper\" <hooper@stratfor.com>
                                       Sent: Tuesday, November 11, 2008
                                       10:09:14 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
                                       Central
                                       Subject: Re: Stratfor's Kremlin Model

                                       you like to wrestle tigers?

                                       Marko Papic wrote:

                                         I'm a dirty Chechen?!

                                         ----- Original Message -----
                                         From: \"Matt Gertken\"
                                         <matt.gertken@stratfor.com>
                                         To: \"Karen Hooper\"
                                         <hooper@stratfor.com>
                                         Cc: \"Lauren Goodrich\"
                                         <goodrich@stratfor.com>, \"Peter
                                         Zeihan\" <zeihan@stratfor.com>,
                                         \"Marko Papic\"
                                         <marko.papic@stratfor.com>, \"Reva
                                         Bhalla\" <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com>,
                                         \"nate hughes\"
                                         <nathan.hughes@stratfor.com>, \"Kevin
                                         Stech\" <kevin.stech@stratfor.com>
                                         Sent: Tuesday, November 11, 2008
                                         9:32:23 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada
                                         Central
                                         Subject: Re: Stratfor's Kremlin
                                         Model

                                         My guess, Karen, is that you are way
                                         too nice and cheerful to be matched
                                         with anyone in the Kremlin.

                                         Karen Hooper wrote:

                                           what about
                                           meeeeeeeeeeeeeee????????

                                           Lauren Goodrich wrote:

                                             **from a Reva-Peter conversation
                                             that snowballed into a new
                                             Stratfor-Kremlin model... please
                                             add to the list
                                             Keep this to the list of emails
                                             above for now pls
                                             New Additions:
                                             Marko is Kadyrov (scary, but
                                             thinks his race should rule)
                                             Matt is Kiriyenko or Naryushkin
                                             (brilliant, but doesn't try to
                                             take others down with it)
                                             Nate is Serdyukov (understands
                                             that military isn't just about
                                             saying you have weapons)
                                             Meredith is Lavrov (diplomatic,
                                             knows everything, can be
                                             aggressive at the best moments)
                                             Fred is Patryushev (intelligence
                                             & connected)
                                             Laura is Rogozin (ambassador to
                                             Europe, but always says what not
                                             suppose to)
                                             Already assigned:
                                             George is Putin (kingmaker and
                                             pushes decisions through no
                                             matter what... both short & with
                                             a complex)
                                             Peter is Medvedev (more
                                             pragmatic decisionmaker... but
                                             still kinda dorky)
                                             Jeff is Kudrin (brains and
                                             money... who knew a checkbook
                                             could be balanced)
                                             Lauren is Surkov (wants to know
                                             everything, can skin a person in
                                             under 3 minuets, but doesn't
                                             want to be top dog)
                                             Stick is Sechin (has his fingers
                                             in the shadier stuff)
                                             Reva is Ivanov (one of the
                                             decision-makers, willing to
                                             stand up to Putin)

                                             Peter Zeihan wrote:

                                               Putin = George model...
                                               PZeihanStratfor (8:26:48 AM):
                                               kudrin is the kremlin's jeff
                                               rbhallastratfor (8:26:56 AM):
                                               ooh
                                               rbhallastratfor (8:26:59 AM):
                                               who do you get to be
                                               rbhallastratfor (8:27:09 AM):
                                               who gets to be surkov
                                               PZeihanStratfor (8:27:19 AM):
                                               lauren of course
                                               rbhallastratfor (8:27:24 AM):
                                               ah of course
                                               PZeihanStratfor (8:27:30 AM):
                                               stick is sechin
                                               PZeihanStratfor (8:27:34 AM):
                                               i'm medvedev
                                               rbhallastratfor (8:27:37 AM):
                                               haha
                                               PZeihanStratfor (8:27:39 AM):
                                               you're ivanov
                                               rbhallastratfor (8:27:41 AM):
                                               that totall works
                                               rbhallastratfor (8:27:43 AM):
                                               sweet!

                                             --
                                             Lauren Goodrich
                                             Director of Analysis
                                             Senior Eurasia Analyst
                                             Stratfor
                                             T: 512.744.4311
                                             F: 512.744.4334
                                             lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
                                             www.stratfor.com

                                           --
                                           Karen Hooper
                                           Latin America Analyst
                                           Stratfor
                                           206.755.6541
                                           www.stratfor.com

                                         --
                                         Marko Papic

                                         Stratfor Junior Analyst
                                         C: + 1-512-905-3091
                                         marko.papic@stratfor.com
                                         AIM: mpapicstratfor

                                       --
                                       Lauren Goodrich
                                       Director of Analysis
                                       Senior Eurasia Analyst
                                       Stratfor
                                       T: 512.744.4311
                                       F: 512.744.4334
                                       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
                                       www.stratfor.com

                                       --
                                       Marko Papic

                                       Stratfor Junior Analyst
                                       C: + 1-512-905-3091
                                       marko.papic@stratfor.com
                                       AIM: mpapicstratfor

                                     --
                                     Lauren Goodrich
                                     Director of Analysis
                                     Senior Eurasia Analyst
                                     Stratfor
                                     T: 512.744.4311
                                     F: 512.744.4334
                                     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
                                     www.stratfor.com

                                     --
                                     Marko Papic

                                     Stratfor Junior Analyst
                                     C: + 1-512-905-3091
                                     marko.papic@stratfor.com
                                     AIM: mpapicstratfor

 --
 Kevin R. Stech
 STRATFOR
 Monitor/Researcher
 P: 512.744.4086
 M: 512.671.0981
 E: kevin.stech@stratfor.com

                             --
                             Lauren Goodrich
                             Director of Analysis
                             Senior Eurasia Analyst
                             Stratfor
                             T: 512.744.4311
                             F: 512.744.4334
                             lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
                             www.stratfor.com

 --
 Kevin R. Stech
 STRATFOR
 Monitor/Researcher
 P: 512.744.4086
 M: 512.671.0981
 E: kevin.stech@stratfor.com

                         --
                         Karen Hooper
                         Latin America Analyst
                         Stratfor
                         206.755.6541
                         www.stratfor.com

 --
 Kevin R. Stech
 STRATFOR
 Monitor/Researcher
 P: 512.744.4086
 M: 512.671.0981
 E: kevin.stech@stratfor.com

                     --
                     Lauren Goodrich
                     Director of Analysis
                     Senior Eurasia Analyst
                     Stratfor
                     T: 512.744.4311
                     F: 512.744.4334
                     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
                     www.stratfor.com

                     --
                     Marko Papic

                     Stratfor Junior Analyst
                     C: + 1-512-905-3091
                     marko.papic@stratfor.com
                     AIM: mpapicstratfor

                   --
                   Karen Hooper
                   Latin America Analyst
                   Stratfor
                   206.755.6541
                   www.stratfor.com

                 --
                 Lauren Goodrich
                 Director of Analysis
                 Senior Eurasia Analyst
                 Stratfor
                 T: 512.744.4311
                 F: 512.744.4334
                 lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
                 www.stratfor.com

                 --
                 Marko Papic

                 Stratfor Junior Analyst
                 C: + 1-512-905-3091
                 marko.papic@stratfor.com
                 AIM: mpapicstratfor

               --
               Lauren Goodrich
               Director of Analysis
               Senior Eurasia Analyst
               Stratfor
               T: 512.744.4311
               F: 512.744.4334
               lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
               www.stratfor.com

             --
             Karen Hooper
             Latin America Analyst
             Stratfor
             206.755.6541
             www.stratfor.com

         --
         Lauren Goodrich
         Director of Analysis
         Senior Eurasia Analyst
         Stratfor
         T: 512.744.4311
         F: 512.744.4334
         lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
","2008-11-17 18:46:09",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5498748_re-stratfor-s-kremlin-model-.html","zeihan@stratfor.com","","bhalla@stratfor.com,goodrich@stratfor.com,hooper@stratfor.com,nathan.hughes@stratfor.com,marko.papic@stratfor.com,matt.gertken@stratfor.com,kristen.cooper@stratfor.com,kevin.stech@stratfor.com",""
5499584,"Research Task - Shady Bulgarian. 
","   Hey missy,

   Will you do me a favor tonight/tomorrow and check into this guy: Veni
   Markovski. He has his own wikipedia page
   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veni_Markovski. Was wondering if he has OC or
   FSB connections.

   I don't need an in depth search, but any flags you find would be helpful.
   It is not a client project, but a security problem for us.

   Thanks!

   Lauren
   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-08-11 06:39:59",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5499584_research-task-shady-bulgarian-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","goodrich@stratfor.com,colibasanu@stratfor.com,brycerogers@stratfor.com",""
5501231,"Re: [MESA] FW: [Analytical & Intelligence Comments] RE: Missteps in
 the Syrian Opposition's Propaganda Effort
","   i trust ME1 on this question. i hate this region, aaaaargh

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   From: \"Karen Hooper\" <hooper@stratfor.com>
   To: \"Middle East AOR\" <mesa@stratfor.com>
   Sent: Thursday, December 15, 2011 1:56:47 PM
   Subject: Re: [MESA] FW: [Analytical & Intelligence Comments] RE: Missteps
   in the Syrian Opposition's Propaganda Effort

   I found OS reports of them being Alawite, as well, but it was a truly
   mixed bag. Nothing seems to agree.

   Karen Hooper
   Latin America Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4300 x4103
   C: 512.750.7234
   www.STRATFOR.com
   On 12/15/11 1:45 PM, Nick Grinstead wrote:

     could ME1 be wrong? We've got overwhelming OS vs one source. Not saying
     that ME1 is lying but maybe they're misinformed as well. We should dig
     into this more before we give an answer.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"Omar Lamrani\" <omar.lamrani@stratfor.com>
     To: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>
     Cc: \"Middle East AOR\" <mesa@stratfor.com>, \"CT AOR\" <ct@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Thursday, December 15, 2011 8:52:28 PM
     Subject: Re: [MESA] FW: [Analytical & Intelligence Comments] RE:
     Missteps in the Syrian Opposition's Propaganda Effort

     Wow, that is crazy. Overwhelmingly OS is reporting that they are Sunni.
     Some reports even talk about the exact tribal affiliation of Shawkat as
     coming from the Sunni tribe of Bani Khaled.

     On 12/15/11 11:36 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

       well, shit.  most of the OS info on them is wrong. ME1 is saying
       they're Alawites.

       Goddamnit. I'll write to the reader and work with the writers to
       include a correction.  Lesson learned - don't trust OS on verifying
       sectarian affiliation.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: \"Omar Lamrani\" <omar.lamrani@stratfor.com>
       To: \"Middle East AOR\" <mesa@stratfor.com>
       Cc: \"Reva Bhalla\" <bhalla@stratfor.com>, \"CT AOR\" <ct@stratfor.com>
       Sent: Thursday, December 15, 2011 9:50:16 AM
       Subject: Re: [MESA] FW: [Analytical & Intelligence Comments] RE:
       Missteps in the Syrian Opposition's Propaganda Effort

       I concur with Reva, I have read multiple reports in multiple languages
       that indicate these guys are Sunni.

       On 12/15/11 9:32 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

         the background material I've seen and re-read on these two guys is
         that they are Sunni.  I sent a message to ME1 this morning to verify
         once again what their sect is

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: \"scott stewart\" <stewart@stratfor.com>
         To: \"Middle East AOR\" <mesa@stratfor.com>, \"CT AOR\"
         <ct@stratfor.com>
         Sent: Thursday, December 15, 2011 9:21:56 AM
         Subject: [MESA] FW: [Analytical & Intelligence Comments] RE:
         Missteps in the Syrian Opposition's Propaganda Effort

         Is this guy correct?

         On 12/15/11 9:58 AM, \"yacoubtaleb@gmail.com\" <yacoubtaleb@gmail.com>
         wrote:

         >yacoubtaleb@gmail.com sent a message using the contact form at
         >https://www.stratfor.com/contact.
         >
         >In your analysis you have mentioned that Assef Shawkat and Ali
         Mamalouk
         >are  
         >Sunni Muslim. That is wrong they both are Alawite. Mistakes like
         that put
         >
         >your credibility in question.
         >
         >
         >
         >
         >Source:  
         >http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20111213-missteps-syrian-oppositions-prop
         >aganda-effort

 --
 Omar Lamrani
 ADP
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 www.STARTFOR.com

 --
 Omar Lamrani
 ADP
 STRATFOR
 221 W. 6th Street, Suite 400
 Austin, TX 78701
 www.STARTFOR.com

     --
     Nick Grinstead
     Regional Monitor
     STRATFOR
     Beirut, Lebanon
     +96171969463
","2011-12-15 21:10:45",1,"2012-02-27 02:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5501231_re-mesa-fw-analytical-and-intelligence-comments-re-missteps.html","bhalla@stratfor.com","mailto:mesa@stratfor.com","mesa@stratfor.com",""
5501350,"Re: Sorry
","   No worries.
   I agree that I'm certifiably nuts.
   But Russia made me that way.

   George Friedman wrote:

 The point I was making to peter is how valuable you are in spite of everything. He wasn't denying that as we both believe it. He was challenging my judgment on other things. I was using you as an example of a good choice. I believe that.

 Please forgive the term I used. I think I covered pretty well. And yes you're nuts, but you're very valuable.
 Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
  

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-03-28 19:54:08",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5501350_re-sorry-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,friedman@att.blackberry.net",""
5502132,"CONFED REMINDER - Brazil Wish List
","   I will be sending the guidance list to our confed partner tomorrow. 
   Thanks to those who have responded.  I've included and example list of
   items at the end of this email. Please feel free to add on to it.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   Hi everyone,

   Yesterday I met with a Brazilian confederation partner, a major newspaper
   here.  Yesterday I met with the main POC as well as the head of the paper
   to discuss how we could make our partnership more productive.

   One of the things the paper requested from us was a list of particular
   items we are interested in.  Our POC is willing to put us in contact to
   the various reporters that are experts in our areas of interest.  These
   people will be available for general chats and also specific questions. 
   So, what I need is a list of items that we are interested in.  They need
   to be a nice balance between specific versus general.

   One we turn this in, they will have a better idea of who to put us in
   touch with.  From there we can send specific questions, for example: how
   will the Chevron spill affect oil regulations?

   Yesterday I met people who can help with macroeconomics/policy,
   infrastructure and Brazilian politics. So, those would be good areas to
   have some items of interest.  This list will be helpful for both the
   cooperation and updating our guidance.  I would like to get this list to
   our POC late Monday of next week or Tuesday at the latest.  

   Thanks,
   Allison

   ECONOMY
   - Policy decision regarding growth, inflation
   - Trade disputes with Argentina
   - Relationship with china; energy investments, dumping goods, industry
   competition

   INFRASTRUCTURE
   - Port modernization projects
   - Measure being implemented to make sure World Cup projects are completed
   on time

   DEFENSE
   - Military exercises along the border
   - 13 treaties with border countries to coordinate efforts in anti-drug
   fight
   - Any pressure on military budgets in the face of financial constratints

   BRAZILIAN POLITICS
   - Jan cabinet reshuffle
   - Outcome and consequences of Para state division vote
","2011-12-05 15:33:37",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5502132_confed-reminder-brazil-wish-list-.html","allison.fedirka@stratfor.com","mailto:econ@stratfor.com","econ@stratfor.com,latam@stratfor.com",""
5502302,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA - the bombings - the new consolidated CE
","   CODE: RU101-102 + more
   PUBLICATION:  yes
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Moscow
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  multiple senior investigators inside the Russian
   Prosecutor General's office + liaisons with Interior Ministry  
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   DISTRIBUTION: Analysts, Fred, briefers
   HANDLER: Lauren
    
   **LG: sources warned me that they would have to be careful on details of
   the current attack because it is still being `investigated'... but they
   heavily implied that the details of the other attacks would satisfy some
   of what we were curious about.
   I bolded a few key things that are the biggest points.
   I spent alot of time writing through this to make it make sense.... but
   was talking & taking notes in Russian, so let me know if any of it is
   unclear

   THE CAUCASUS EMIRATE MILITANT GROUP
    
   There are many that are reporting that there has been a gradual and
   substantial escalation and consolidation in the Caucasus Emirate's (CE)
   capacity, organization and audacity since 2007. CE has different branches
   in Chechnya, Ingushetia, Daghestan, Circassian (Kabard, Cherkess, and
   Adygei) and Alan (Karachai and Balkar).
    
   The CE is now targeting Moscow or St. Petersburg elite, as they have been
   targeting Caucasus elite recently. The Caucasus elite have been hit by
   sniper attacks, dive-bys, and IEDs. They have also used the tactic of
   targeting those outside of the city in order to leave too much time for
   medical or security groups to reach them in time before they die. The CE
   has used the tactics in the Caucasus of setting an explosion and when
   security forces rush to the scene, then they set off another, killing
   ranked officials.
    
   However the CE is not suppose to be carrying out attacks outside of the
   Caucasus. The CE has focused on carrying out terrorist operations across
   the Caucasus against what they consider the local puppet regimes and the
   occupying forces of the Russian infidel.... anything that is their 'near
   enemy'  rather than striking against the `far enemy' in Moscow and other
   Russian regions.
    
   After over a five-year hiatus against attacking civilians, CE amir Doka
   Abu Usman Umarov declared in April that the militants would no longer be
   avoiding civilian casualties. He said that his group would justify
   attacking Russian civilians on the basis of their support for Moscow's
   counter-insurgency efforts and policies towards Islam. He also said that
   he would resume attacks on all Russian territory, not just the Caucasus.
    
   Umarov and CE did announce that they would target more economic targets
   and high priority targets last year. They said that Nevskii was the first
   of these (LG: more on that below). But it also fulfilled hitting Russia
   deep inside the country.
    
   There is belief from many in our circle that CE was starting off its push
   to try to pull off bigger attacks as early as 2007 with the Nevskii
   bombing. The bombs used in the 2007 and 2009 Nevskii attacks are
   incredibly similar in their design and sophistication. Also, they
   detonated nearly the same place and minuet of time of day.
    
   That bombing was claimed by a group called the Riyadus Salikhin (RS) -
   lead by Said Yemin Dadayev, who was the deputy of Shamil Basayev. However,
   the RS is a purely suicide bombing group, which that attack on the Nevskii
   was not. It is interesting that the RS has not claimed either the 2009
   Nevskii or Moscow subway attacks. They have gone silent.... Or they have
   been merged into another group... like CE.
    
   2009 NEVSKII BOMBING
    
   On Dec. 2 the CE claimed responsibility for the Nov bombing of the Nevskii
   Express. With the CE claims on this attack, then Umarov has then returned
   to his promise to attack `far enemies'.  
    
   The Nevskii attack is also highly important to look at because it is the
   first time the CE was successful in killing federal officials with head of
   the Federal Reserves Agency, Boris Yevstratikov and former federal senator
   of St. Petersburg Sergei Tarasov both killed.
    
   The bombs for the Nevskii were also set up to hurt the investigators -
   FSB, Interior Ministry and Prosecutor General Office - oncec they arrived
   on the scene. There was the first explosion that derailed the train which
   was 5.7 kilograms of TNT under the train as it sped at 197 kilometers an
   hour. It was an improvised device of plastic explosive + TNT + ammonium
   nitrate wrapped in plastic and buried under the rail.
    
   But there was a second device planted near a telephone pole that was
   detonated via mobile phone once the investigators arrived. It
   malfunctioned, though a few people did end up with minor injuries-in
   particular was GP Investigator Chief Alexandr Bastrykin.
    
   This is one of the reasons why mobile phone operations were shut down
   immediately after the Moscow subway bombings... because of concern over
   follow-up attacks on investigators and emergency medics.
    
   As far as who carried out the Nevskii attack, it was three men and a woman
   (again with the female involvement).  As you know from the media, there
   was a male of Slavic origin, which leads us into the involvement of
   Kosolapov (LG: more below on him).
    
   THE TANGLED WEB
    
   The 2007 Nevskii attack further looks to be the work of CE because
   militant charged with it - Pavel Kosolapov has ties to Umarov. We have
   reports that Umarov ordered Kosolapov to carry out the attack since he is
   not ethnically from the Caucasus, but is Russian and a former military
   man, being in the rocket forces. He was a convert to Islam and to the
   Chechen cause. He studied with the Chechen militants that specialized in
   transportation attacks. Kosolapov has also been part of other attacks such
   as the 2003 bus attack in Kranodar and the 2004 market attack in Samara
   (plus more).  We believe Kosolapov has been behind the rail bombings in
   the Caucasus, especially the eight in Daghestan.
    
   We believe that Kosolapov was involved in the some part of the recent
   Nevskii and Moscow attacks. This is the suspect that has been referred to
   by authorities that has `red hair and is Russian'. He is not a Russian
   nationalist, but a `damned' convert to Islam and the Chechen cause. He is
   still at large and most recently was seen working on a farm in the
   Caucasus.
    
   Kosolapov has made his own videos recently and we believe that he is part
   of a disinformation campaign for CE now, saying that CE was not behind the
   Nevskii attacks. But then contradicting his videos with follow-ups saying
   that CE was behind it, then claiming the Sayano-Shushenskii dam explosion,
   as well as, the Perm accident on CE. This were the claims which makes many
   believe that CE claims are not credible, but we believe Kosolapov did this
   purposefully.

   There is also ties into CE by Shiekh Said Abu Saad Buryarskii, who also
   works inside of Ingushetia. He is one of the culprits behind the uptick in
   attacks inside of Ingushetia. Buryatskii has been known on occasions as an
   operative in CE and the Interior Ministry has evidence that he (on orders
   for CE) carried out the MVD station bomb attack in August. Buryatskii also
   has ties into RS and its suicide bombings.
    
   What is also an interesting trend is that after the 2007 & 2009 train
   bombings and the Moscow attacks there were large attacks also carried out
   in the Caucasus. We believe CE is behind many of these attacks, though
   there is some evidence that Daghestan's Jamaat Shariat could have helped
   them out.
    
   This has all led us to believe that Buryatskii, RS, Kosolapov and other
   forces (maybe Daghestan's Jamaat Shariat) have all consolidated under
   Umarov and CE. It is the first consolidation we've seen in militant forces
   in nearly a decade. Of course these are the latter tiers of fighters for
   the Caucasus cause, but it is a consolidation nonetheless.
    
   This is the highest level of expertise that we have seen in CE attacks
   ever. Kosolapov, RS, and Buryatskii have been training in this and are the
   only 3 groups/individuals outside  (or inside) of CE that could have done
   this. The possible merging and consolidation of CE, RS, Kosolapov and
   Buryatskii has greatly enhanced the overall capacity, experience and
   tactics of the new force. 

   FOREIGN INVOLEMENT
    
   Yes, the media has latched onto the accusation of foreign involvement by
   the Interior Ministry. There is always connections to foreign militant
   groups. But specifically, we have seen some Caucasus militants returning
   to the region that have trained in Pakistan with Abu Hanifah and with Al
   Qaeda's Lashkar al-Zin commander Ilyas Kashmili. This is all just small
   details and really does not matter in the short or long term. The point is
   that there are forces organized in the country.
    
   INGUSH CONNECTION

   There are connections into Ingushetia-something that has sparked such a
   rapid series of denials by the new Ingush government. Such as the two
   Ingush that were arrested for the 2007 bombings - Salanbek Dzakkhiev and
   Maksharil Khidriev - admitted that the explosive materials used in the
   2007 bombings by Kosolapov are not enough for just that bombing, so
   Kosolapov must have used it for others. Also, they confirmed the
   connection between Kosolapov and Umarov.
    
   On a sidenote, we are working with French authorities on an Ingush
   national arriving in France in late 2009 and planning a terrorist attack
   in the country.
    
   WHAT IS NEXT
    
   We believe that CE's operations are too consolidated to leave to simple
   security clamdowns. It is a large more comprehensive Kremlin project now,
   led by Putin.
    
   We believe the CE will continue to attempt to attack ranked or elite
   persons, infrastructure, symbolic assets, economic assets, etc.
    
   We do think there will be an eventual backlash against CE in the Caucasus
   since they continue to target civilians. This has never boded well for
   militant groups in the Caucasus in the past.

   FUTURE TARGETS
    
   CE did declare recently in a video that it held a jihad against the West
   and that its group would `lengthen its reach' to begin targeting `Western
   and global targets inside and outside of Russia'. With  the appearance of
   a CE member in France, we are fearful that this may become a reality.
    
   Our biggest fear of the next target is two-fold. They have yet to really
   strike a major economic assets thus far, so a pipeline, refinery,
   electricity plant, etc. is on the list of what we're watching for.
    
   Also, the only `Western' targets that we believe they would hit in Russia
   would be a 5 star hotel in Moscow. This would be the worst case scenario.
   Since most of those hotels are near the Kremlin, have foreign officials,
   Russian heavyweights and would be a public nightmare for us. All these
   hotels have incredible security, but that does not mean there are not
   cracks.
    
   OTHER SUSPECTS

   There was never really any serious investigation in either the Nevskii
   bombing or the Moscow subway bombing on any domestic nationalist or
   neo-fascist group. There has only been 1 case in which a group like this
   has ever partially demonstrated a capacity for an attack on individuals
   like these attacks. It is the Combat 18 group that `claimed'
   responsibility for the Nevskii bombing. This group was under serious
   investigation for the Moscow-Grozny train attack in 2005, but was cleared
   of involvement. Combat 18 is believed to have been part of a bomb hoax in
   planting fake explosives on the St. Petersburg metro in Nov of last year.
   This does not lead credibility that this group could actually plan or
   carry out a major attack. Another group that claims to have the capability
   is Peresvyet neo-fascist group, which has declared war on `Russian
   authorities', but only minor individual attacks can be attributed to them.

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-04-06 18:15:58",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5502302_insight-russia-the-bombings-the-new-consolidated-ce-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","watchofficer@stratfor.com",""
5502772,"Re: Thanksgiving check in...
","   This one is sort of strange though--appears it was routed through a server
   in Amsterdam.  Might be normal though--could Russian servers route that
   way?  Message mentions a bar overlooking Red Square. 

   On 12/23/2009 5:29 PM, scott stewart wrote:

     I suspect these are legit.
      
      

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: burton@stratfor.com [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Wednesday, December 23, 2009 5:22 PM
     To: Scott Stewart; Anya Alfano; Korena Zucha
     Subject: Re: Thanksgiving check in...
     This is all Chinese to me.

     Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: \"scott stewart\" <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>
     Date: Wed, 23 Dec 2009 17:11:30 -0500
     To: 'Anya Alfano'<anya.alfano@stratfor.com>; <burton@stratfor.com>;
     'Korena Zucha'<zucha@stratfor.com>
     Subject: FW: Thanksgiving check in...
     Return-Path: goodrich@stratfor.com
     Received: from core.stratfor.com (LHLO core.stratfor.com) (66.219.34.45)
     by
      core.stratfor.com with LMTP; Thu, 26 Nov 2009 09:42:37 -0600 (CST)
     Received: from localhost (localhost.localdomain [127.0.0.1])
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     Message-ID: <4B0EA1E3.2060108@stratfor.com>
     Date: Thu, 26 Nov 2009 09:42:27 -0600
     From: Lauren Goodrich <goodrich@stratfor.com>
     User-Agent: Thunderbird 2.0.0.23 (Windows/20090812)
     MIME-Version: 1.0
     To: Chris Farnham <chris.farnham@stratfor.com>,
      scott stewart <scott.stewart@stratfor.com>,
      Fred Burton <burton@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Thanksgiving check in...
     X-Enigmail-Version: 0.96.0
     Content-Type: multipart/alternative;
      boundary=\"------------030809010305080804030804\"

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Thursday, November 26, 2009 10:42 AM
     To: Chris Farnham; scott stewart; Fred Burton
     Subject: Thanksgiving check in...
     Hello Gentlemen,
     I hope you are all fat on Turkey and such (Chirs, you can be glutenous
     whatever China's version is). I am back at the hotel for the night and
     everything went okay today. Great meetings today with tons of info. Now
     I'm just going to relax with my Thanksgiving vokda as I sit in the bar
     that overlooks Red Square-- not very American is it?
     Have a Happy Thanksgiving!
     Lauren
     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     STRATFOR
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com
","2009-12-24 00:10:05",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5502772_re-thanksgiving-check-in-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,zucha@stratfor.com",""
5503261,"Re: question
","I feel like I'm missing something here--I totally understand the idea
that some men don't necessarily think with the brain on top of their
shoulders all the time, but this just seems nuts.  He's letting a girl
call him by some random name, speaking with a British accent, pretending
to be a British lord, and who knows what else--but why? What is he
getting out of it (besides maybe the obvious...)?

On 1/7/2010 1:09 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
> Drew w/a British accent
>   
>> Does R know him as Brian, or Drew?
>>
>> On 1/7/2010 12:36 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
>>     
>>> R advises both L & B are unbelievable poker players.  R thinks they work
>>> as a tandem.
>>>
>>> Anya Alfano wrote:
>>>   
>>>       
>>>> Maybe the guy has roommates to cover the mortgage so he doesn't have any
>>>> expenses?  Both his cell phone number and his driver's license are
>>>> registered to the pflugerville home that he owns.
>>>>
>>>> On 1/7/2010 12:04 PM, zucha@stratfor.com wrote:
>>>>     
>>>>         
>>>>> As a note, his accurint report showed that he had a roommate both at
>>>>> the pflugerville home and Duvall apt although the guy's name did not
>>>>> match those for owners of the cars in the driveway.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Jan 7, 2010, at 10:56 AM, Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com
>>>>> <mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com>> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>       
>>>>>           
>>>>>> Yes, the number that LG provided is 512-507-6544.  The number is
>>>>>> registered in the name of Brian Baxter at the address of the home he
>>>>>> owns. 
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On 1/7/2010 11:52 AM, Fred Burton wrote:
>>>>>>         
>>>>>>             
>>>>>>> Do you have Baxter's cell #?
>>>>>>>   
>>>>>>>           
>>>>>>>               
","2010-01-07 22:59:55",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5503261_re-question-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com,zucha@stratfor.com",""
5503589,"Re: xzxz
","First time that we're aware of.  If she's willing to impersonate people
with her friends, why not with sources as well?  Could there be a gf
account out there, singing her praises as a super secret spy to her
contacts, or to BB? 



On 1/19/2010 1:18 PM, Fred Burton wrote:
> But its the first time she has done this to one of us!
>
> Anya Alfano wrote:
>   
>> It's also nothing new for her to create a fake email account--she did it
>> for herself in the Comyn name to further the deception. 
>>
>>     
","2010-01-19 19:20:35",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5503589_re-xzxz-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com",""
5504044,"Re: Russian Defector Comrade J
","   I adore Comrade J's book.... so fascinating.
   I would like to get Comrade J's take on the GRU then and now.
   The fierce rivalry between the KGB and GRU and how he saw the GRU's
   capability & power outside of Russia.

   Fred Burton wrote:

     He lost his mind while under KGB control.  Now he is trying to recapture
     his mind. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Peter Zeihan [mailto:zeihan@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Tuesday, October 27, 2009 1:39 PM
     To: Fred Burton
     Cc: 'lauren'; 'George Friedman'; korena.zucha@stratfor.com; 'Anya
     Alfano'; 'scott stewart'
     Subject: Re: Russian Defector Comrade J
     why the fuck are you still giving interviews?

     have you lost your mind??

     Fred Burton wrote:

       A very good friend will be meeting w/Comrade J in a few days and has
       offered to ask Comrade J questions on my behalf. 
        
       Does anyone have questions for Comrade J?  He's under WITSEC
       protection to keep the Russians from killing him. 
        
        
       http://www.amazon.com/Comrade-Untold-Secrets-Russias-America/dp/1400155525

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-10-27 19:47:02",1,"2012-03-08 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5504044_re-russian-defector-comrade-j-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,burton@stratfor.com,zeihan@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,anya.alfano@stratfor.com,korena.zucha@stratfor.com,Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com",""
5505395,"INSIGHT - Pakistan Military attempts to influence US policy - PK700
","   Source Code: PK700
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR security source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former Pakistani intelligence officer
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Fred

 Pakistan bashing continues. How convenient it is to ignore the huge size of India cocuss and the campaign funding they receive from India through Indian Americans acting as conduits. No one talks about the covert and overt influence israel enjoys through funding American congressmen and the control Israel has on American policies through coercion and fear of Jewish lobby. Since FBI is involved the blessing of US administration is obvious. Unfortunately this PAK bashing is earning hatred for US in a normally pro US country specially it's Armed Forces. This campaign to browbeat or pressurize Pakistan will have an opposite effect in a society where respect is valued and enmities leave memories for generations
","2011-07-21 00:00:24",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5505395_insight-pakistan-military-attempts-to-influence-us-policy.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","zucha@stratfor.com,fred.burton@stratfor.com,watchofficer@stratfor.com",""
5506862,"Fwd: [alpha] INSIGHT - BRAZIL/PARAGUAY - Brasiguayos, background
 on Brazil's view of Prgy
","   Is this one BR501?

   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - BRAZIL/PARAGUAY - Brasiguayos, background on   
             Brazil's view of Prgy                                            
       Date: Wed, 20 Jul 2011 11:13:44 -0500 (CDT)                            
       From: Clint Richards <clint.richards@stratfor.com>                     
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>                                  
         To: alpha@stratfor.com                                               

   This insight is old (we're talking several months).  However, the issue of
   Brasiguayos is starting to draw a lot of attention in the border area
   (even some asking for Brazilian intervention).  So, I wanted to resend
   this so that there was some background out there about Brazil's general
   views on the situation. [AF]

   Code: new 
   Publication: if useful, mostly background
   Attribution: Brazilian embassy in Paraguay
   Source reliability: untested
   Item credibility: 4
   Special handling: none
   Source handler: Allison
    

   How is Brazil trying to work with the Paraguayan government on the 
   Brasiguaios's issue? Is Brazil making concessions to Paraguay in return
   for their assurance that the Brasiguaios will not have their land taken
   away?
   - side note: he said that the term Brasiguayos was a bit pejorative; that
   said, we need to be careful how we use this term if we one day write a
   piece related to this topic.
   - He pointed out that now a days it is very hard to really define a
   Brasiguayo in that many of them have been born and raised in Paraguay.  He
   said there are communities where up to 80% of the town's population is of
   Brazilian descent.  He also said that many of these border towns are
   culturally Brazilian and much resemble their counterparts on the other
   side of the border.

   - Brazil is basically sponsoring a immigrant normalization program in
   Paraguay.  He criticized the Paraguayan government saying that this had
   been a problem for years and they just never managed to get their act
   together and resolve the status of these people.  A few months ago, Brazil
   hosted a national program in which it normalized the status of immigrant
   who either did not have papers or their papers expired.  Bolivians,
   Peruvian and Paraguayans (in that order) were those that benefited most
   from this initiative.

   - After this program the Brazilian embassy worked with the Paraguayan
   government to launch a pilot round of a program geared towards normalizing
   the immigration status of Brasiguayos as quickly and fast as possible. 
   The plan is based off the rules of Mercosur.  Within the laws, agreements
   of Mercosur there's a measure which calls for the governments to normalize
   the status of Mercosur immigrants in their country. Under this law, the
   individual normalizes his paper, immigrant status and receives a status
   card which is valid two year from the day the individual receives the
   card.  Upon reception of the status card, the individual has 2 years to
   either convert his/her status in to a permanent resident or not if he/she
   so chooses. [there was a recently another round this month of normalizing
   immigrant status in Paraguay - AF]

   - The program basically consists of brining all the administrative
   services to towns with high Brasiguayo populations and carrying out all
   the paperwork there.  They include the necessary local officials,
   representatives from the Brazilian embassy, photographers, medical
   examiners, federal police from both countries to issues criminal records
   quickly and other officials whose paper work is needed for the paperwork
   to go through.  The people basically get in line and pass through each
   station so that by the end they complete all the necessary steps to
   normalize their status.  They receive their status card within a week
   after this takes place. 

   - The price is reasonable though could be slightly challenging for someone
   working as say a farmer with 5 kids, all of which lack proper status.  The
   costs however, are meant to cover just the operations and not make a
   profit.

   - He presented this project where Paraguayan officials do participate in
   carrying out the paper work but Brazil is really the one who took the
   initiative, sponsors it and oversees most of the work. 

   - They considered the pilots runs to be successful and are now looking to
   carry them out as a full fledged program.  The goal is to continue this
   program through 2013 (the end of Lugo's term) and not just have it  be a
   one-time deal.  He also said that if it works, it would serve as a good
   template for how other groups of immigrants can normalize their status.

   - When I asked about land he basically said that the normalizing their
   status would fix lots of problems for these people.  He said that without
   their documents kids had problems attending schools, they couldn't receive
   proper medical care and were unable to do a whole list of activities (such
   as owning land) that required legal status.

   - I also asked about any concerns over backlash in these communities -
   would locals who were of Paraguayan descent ever take action against
   Brasiguayos.  He said that while he recognized there have been reports of
   some incidents of violence, he said that he didn't see it as a big danger
   since the communities are small and many of the people have grown up there
   and we are getting to a point where the communities have grown together.

   How does Brazil view Paraguay in terms of its geopolitical interest? How
   important is Paraguay for Brazil? Why is it important?  Where does
   Brazil see foreign competition in Paraguay?
   - He said that Paraguay and Brazil have a very dense and strong
   relationship.  He said he'd rank Paraguay as the most important neighbor
   immediately bordering Brazil (he's also been here for a total of ten
   years).  In the distant past he said that Paraguay oscillated between
   Argentina and Brazil.  However, he identified the construction of Itaipu
   as the most recent, big event solidifying the countries together.  He said
   that oscillation is no longer taking place

   - He said that Brazil feels very comfortable with its relationship with
   Paraguay.  When asked about others competing with Brazil for geopolitical
   spaces in Paraguay he said he/Brazil did not see that as an issue.

   - Throughout the entire conversation he would mention how Paraguay just
   doesn't have the money or institutions to get things done but its
   partnership with Brazil helps counter that to a small degree.  He
   definitely talked like Brazil was the big brother taking care of Paraguay.

   - With security he said it's a delicate issues and that both sides are
   trying to work together to make border crossings a safer place.  He
   equated Brazil's border with Paraguay to the US border with Mexico - very
   long and problematic in terms of violence.
","2011-08-22 19:35:08",1,"2012-03-13 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5506862_fwd-alpha-insight-brazil-paraguay-brasiguayos-background-on.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","allison.fedirka@stratfor.com",""
5507057,"Order Confirmation for HMRShippingUK.net
","
                             Order Confirmation for
                               HMRShippingUK.net

   Hello Lauren,

   Thank you for choosing Anything Email for your Domain, Email, and Website
   needs. This email is to confirm the purchase of the Domain Name
   HMRShippingUK.net and master email address L.A.Anderson@HMRShippingUK.net.
   The charge 49.95 will appear on your credit card statement from Anything
   Email, Inc. Please print this email for your records. It contains
   important account information. Your email address and domain name will not
   affect or change your old email address.

   What's next?

   Once your domain and new email address are active, we will send you an
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   domain.

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   accessible on the Internet. Once the domain is active, all your services
   with Anything a Email will also be active.

   What becomes active?

     * Domain Name: HMRShippingUK.net
     * Master Email Address: L.A.Anderson@HMRShippingUK.net
     * Command Center (additional email addresses can be set up or changed
       through the Command Center)
     * Webmail System
     * FTP Access with 10MB of web space

   What is included with this purchase?

     * Domain Name: HMRShippingUK.net
     * 5 POP3 Email Accounts at your domain (your master email address plus 4
       more)
     * 500MB of email storage (distributable through the Command Center)
     * FTP Access with 10MB of web space
     * Web Site Redirect (automatically redirect your new web address to a
       pre-existing web address)

   For your records:

   Domain: HMRShippingUK.net

   Purchase Amount: 49.95

   Card Holder: Lauren Goodrich

   Master Email Address: L.A.Anderson@HMRShippingUK.net

   Password: Meredith19

   POP3 (Incoming) Server: mail.HMRShippingUK.net

   SMTP (Outgoing) Server: mail.HMRShippingUK.net

   Command Center: http://mail.HMRShippingUK.net/admin

   Webmail: http://mail.HMRShippingUK.net/

   FTP Location: ftp.HMRShippingUK.net

   FTP username: HMRShippingUK.net

   FTP password: Meredith19

   Look for answers to frequently asked questions located at
   http://www.anythingemail.com/support/faqs/.  You may e-mail us at
   support@anythingemail.com if you have any questions not found in our FAQ.

   We sincerely thank you for your business!

   Anything Email, Inc.
   2455 E. Sunrise Blvd, Suite 1201
   Fort Lauderdale, FL 33304
   http://www.AnythingEmail.com

   Customer Support hours:
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   Saturday-Sunday, CLOSED

   Telephone: (800) 420-6928 Toll Free
   Email: Support@AnythingEmail.com
","2010-01-27 06:48:07",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5507057_order-confirmation-for-hmrshippinguk-net-.html","support@anythingemail.com","","Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com",""
5507507,"Re: URS - New GV Business [REVENUE]
","   Thanks, Don.  Much appreciated.
   Anya

   On 8/31/11 4:50 PM, Don Kuykendall wrote:

     Talked to Debora.  Fine and dandy.
     -Don
     Don R. Kuykendall 
     President & Chief Financial Officer 
     STRATFOR 
     512.744.4314 phone 
     512.744.4334 fax 
     kuykendall@stratfor.com 
       
     _______________________ 
       
     http://www.stratfor.com 
     STRATFOR 
     221 W. 6th Street 
     Suite 400 
     Austin, Texas 78701 
     From: Anya Alfano <anya.alfano@stratfor.com>
     Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2011 15:35:57 -0400
     To: Debora Wright <wright@stratfor.com>
     Cc: Don Kuykendall <don.kuykendall@stratfor.com>
     Subject: Re: URS - New GV Business [REVENUE]
     Hi Don,
     Per Debora's earlier message, I've copied our draft scope of work for
     the URS work below.  Essentially, the client is interested in having two
     areas of interest covered at all times and then the ability to have a
     third topic of interest that will change through the contract period. 
     We'll need to task the monitors to do some additional work to do
     watching their first topic of interest, but we already cover the second
     topic very well.  The topic that they mentioned as an example of a
     rotating topic of interest was the security situation in Mexico, which
     we also cover well.  

     Please let me know your thoughts on the draft below--I'm also available
     to speak on the phone if you think it would be helpful.
     Thanks,
     Anya

     SCOPE OF WORK  - Global Vantage Services for URS

     STRATFOR will provide URS with continual monitoring of two topics of
     continual concern and one additional topic of concern that will change
     periodically during the term of service. The goal of these monitoring
     services is to provide better understanding of the security environment
     in the areas of interest that could impact URS personnel, facilities,
     operations and interests.

      

                             I.     Standing Issue of Interest - STRATFOR
     will monitor militant threats to URS and other similarly situated
     corporations to determine any change to the level of threat to these
     entities. STRATFOR will alert the client to any emerging threats and
     help the client to determine whether these developments signify a threat
     to their interests.

                            II.     Standing Issue of Interest - STRATFOR
     will monitor security developments--including those stemming from war,
     insurgency and terrorism-- in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan to
     determine if there are changes to the company's baseline threat
     assessment and operational environment in these areas.

                          III.     Rotating Area of Interest - URS will
     determine one rotating area of interest with the ability to change this
     topic once every two months. These areas of interest would primarily
     focus on the security issues present in a single country, with a special
     focus on how security issues impact the business environment. A STRATFOR
     Briefer will work with the client to ensure that the chosen topic of
     interest does not require an extraordinary level of resource usage from
     STRATFOR's intelligence team.

      

     DELIVERABLES

      

     .       Three URS representatives will receive access to a STRATFOR
     Intelligence Briefer who collaborates with the STRATFOR analyst team and
     tracks open source and proprietary global intelligence as it pertains to
     the Scope of Work outlined above:

     -       The Briefer will provide alerts and updates on significant
     developments related to the Scope of Work via email or phone call

     -       The Briefer will also be available for consultation via email or
     phone on strategic questions related to the Scope of Work and can
     provide updates and recommendations during crisis and red alert
     situations.  The Briefer will alert URS if any request requires an
     extraordinary level of monitoring, intelligence resources or research
     and is therefore not included within the scope of this contract

      

     .       Three URS users will receive access to STRATFOR's Enterprise
     database of daily content/archives of global briefings, analysis,
     forecasts, videos and special reports

     On 8/31/11 2:48 PM, Debora Wright wrote:

       Hi Don -

       Anya and I just got off the phone with URS and we are finalizing the
       scope of work/deliverables for this new GV business.  Anya will send
       the scope of work shortly for your review and approval. 

       As a quick reminder, here are the details about this business:

       URS has a budget of $28K, so we have been clear with URS that STRATFOR
       will have to limit the service to meet their budget.  It is basically
       a proof of concept year - so in 6 months, Anya and I will visit with
       them again to consider the success of GV within their organization,
       discuss other topics they may want us to monitor,  and provide pricing
       options for 2012 so they will have ample time to budget for a larger
       purchase of GV Services.
       If you are good with what Anya sends, please let me know so that I may
       forward to the customer, get his approval and close the business.

       Thanks,
       Debora
","2011-08-31 23:00:41",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5507507_re-urs-new-gv-business-revenue-.html","Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com","","kuykendall@stratfor.com,wright@stratfor.com",""
5509401,"Re: Insight--for internal use only--On pain of agony
","   No wonder Medvedev has 2 trips planned to Turkey this spring..... Russia
   will try to take advantage.

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

     yes... turkey isn't only using Iran as the cause for the break. look at
     turkey's public outrage over the Israeli offensive in Gaza as an
     example. Turkey is already pretty tight with Russia, but this doesn't
     mean Turkey has to necessarily get closer to Russia. Turkey will play
     nice with the Russians but also wants to show it can play on its own
     On Feb 20, 2010, at 11:14 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       I meant to say, if not for Iran, would he look for other
       places/weaknesses in the US/Israel relationship to cause a break? 
       And, if he did break with these two, would it mean necessarily that he
       would move closer to Russia?

       Reva Bhalla wrote:

         US and Israel are the ones that matter. it's about redefining
         Turkey's role as an independent power
         On Feb 20, 2010, at 11:04 AM, Jennifer Richmond wrote:

           Erdogan is looking to break with the US and Israel?  Are there
           other possible places he could do this, if he is actively trying?

           George Friedman wrote:

             Turkey would break with israel and the united states. It would
             be an opportunity erdogan is looking for. 

             Iran would become more visible but not more powerful. A year
             after the attack its underlying weakness would still be there
             and its dependence on turkey greater. 

             In my view the ourtcome of this is turkish power. But remeber,
             my insight is not that israel will attack. Its that kissinger
             thinks they will attack. Huge difference. 

             $

             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
             Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 15:55:16 +0000
             To: Secure List<secure@stratfor.com>
             Subject: Re: Insight--for internal use only--On pain of agony
             All my sources - regardless of factional affiliation - are
             convinced that Iran is preparing for war and one that will make
             the regime more stronger. Did you see Bob Baer make the same
             argument in TIME? Any attack on Iran will make it very difficult
             for Turkey. It will be forced to take a stand against the war
             and there could be trouble with the United States. Such a
             conflict will be a test of Turkey's resurgence and moves towards
             a more independent foreign policy. 

             ---

             Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: \"George Friedman\" <friedman@att.blackberry.net>
             Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 15:47:49 +0000
             To: Kamran Bokhari<bokhari@stratfor.com>; George
             Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>; Secure
             List<secure@stratfor.com>
             Subject: Re: Insight--for internal use only--On pain of agony
             I believe th us will premempt. But there is no clear time line.

             Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: \"Kamran Bokhari\" <bokhari@stratfor.com>
             Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 15:43:38 +0000
             To: George Friedman<gfriedman@stratfor.com>; Secure
             List<secure@stratfor.com>
             Subject: Re: Insight--for internal use only--On pain of agony
             Understood. What is your own assessment of the view that the
             Israelis will attack?

             ---

             Sent from my BlackBerry device on the Rogers Wireless Network 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

             From: George Friedman <gfriedman@stratfor.com>
             Date: Sat, 20 Feb 2010 09:41:03 -0600
             To: Secure List<secure@stratfor.com>
             Subject: Insight--for internal use only--On pain of agony
             Internal use only

             Some nuggets from meeting:

             Kissinger believes that the Israelis are in a panic and will
             attack Iran.  Erdogan has made it clear to him that he plans to
             break with Israel at some point and reorient toward the Islamic
             world. He intends to be their leader.  Paul Volcker regards the
             Greek crisis as potentially a mortal blow for the EU. He would
             like to see an IMF tranche.  He also said that Nicholas Brady is
             behind both this and the Volcker principles Obama adopted.  When
             I asked Brady how he expects to get the the U.S. to go along
             with an IMF bailout, he shrugged and said they won't, but that's
             the only choice.  Volcker is now doubtful the Euro can survive. 
             Brady is convinced it will.  Kissinger thinks Volcker and Brady
             are missing the real crisis which is in Iran and potentially
             Russia. Volcker also says that the Bank of England and the
             French will go along with the Volcker rules on an international
             basis--that is returning to a variety of Glass-Steagal.  The
             Japanese will do whatever is said, and in Germany only Deutsche
             Bank really makes decisions. Sarkozy told him he would come in. 
             So there may be an international convention on restructuring
             banks under way--Volcker is pretty careful in what he says and
             doesn't promote himself more than the average bear, so this may
             be the case.  Nick Brady thinks so too.

             Total confusion on situation in China, but more on Obama.  They
             don't understand who is running China policy. The decision to
             meet with the Dalia Lama strikes them as particularly bizarre. 
             But China is the least of the discussion.  It is about Greece
             and Iran.  China is kind of an afterthought.

             I asked Tim Reed who ran Resolution Trust Corporation during the
             S&L crisis under Nick Brady whether a new RTC would have been
             better as a supplement to TARP and he agreed but said that
             Paulsen was so panicked he wasn't thinking and Bernaecke and he
             were just responding.  

             One sense I'm getting here is that the American elite, along
             with Europe's, China's and just about everyone but Russia's his
             suffering from three problems:  First, none are really aware of
             the political pressures on other elites.  Second, they
             completely misunderstand the alienation of the publics, three,
             except for Volcker, they think this can be handled by the elites
             among themselves.  We have a crisis of the elites, in my view.  

             I get to hold forth in an hour or so, and I'm going to argue
             that Iran is going out of control because of the elite crisis. 
             No decision making is going on and the decisions that are being
             made won't be supported in the public. The only country that is
             acting decisively and can do so is Russia.

             This is for our own internal use.  This must not be published or
             discussed outside Stratfor.
             -- 
             George Friedman
             Founder and CEO
             Stratfor
             700 Lavaca Street
             Suite 900
             Austin, Texas 78701
             Phone  512-744-4319
             Fax  512-744-4334

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com



    

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com



    

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-02-20 20:37:58",1,"2012-02-27 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5509401_re-insight-for-internal-use-only-on-pain-of-agony-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","bokhari@stratfor.com,richmond@stratfor.com,reva.bhalla@stratfor.com,friedman@att.blackberry.net,secure@stratfor.com",""
5509536,"Re: FW: email of Fred Burton
","   Markovski is a huge internet mogul in Bulgaria. He is kinda a strange guy,
   but very powerful in business circles. I've shipped his name to my ppl to
   see if he is hooked into FSB or OC. But he is one of the biggest founders
   of Internet in Bulgaria and the region. I know he has ties into Russia and
   the rest of the CIS.

   To be honest, I can't imagine him having a \"gmail\" account with his own
   name on it. That seems really suspect to me since he is such a powerful
   and rich dude.

   Fred Burton wrote:

      Any idea who these folks are?  Thx  

     -----Original Message-----
     From: veni Markovski [mailto:venimarkovski@gmail.com] On Behalf Of Veni
     Markovski
     Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2008 4:46 PM
     To: service@stratfor.com
     Subject: email of Fred Burton

     Hi.

     I am looking for the e-mail of Mr. Burton. Would be glad, if you can
     send it.

     Thank you.

     Sincerely,

     Veni Markovski

     Senior Advisor for International Projects
     <http://www.daits.government.bg/>State Agency for IT and Communications
     <http://www.government.bg/>Council of Ministers | REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA
     ----------------
     email: <mailto:veni@veni.com>veni@veni.com | email2:
     <mailto:veni@daits.government.bg>veni@daits.government.bg
     office: +1-646-873-7708 | office2: +359-2-401-8008 | fax:
     +1-212-319-5955 Bulgarian Consulate General, 121 E 62nd Str., New York,
     NY 10021, USA

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-08-11 06:38:33",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5509536_re-fw-email-of-fred-burton-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
5509661,"Fwd: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA/AZ/US/VZ/RUSSIA/TAIWAN - Erdogan's
 cancer, Turkish plan for Syria and more - TR325
","   -------- Original Message --------

    Subject: [alpha] INSIGHT - TURKEY/SYRIA/AZ/US/VZ/RUSSIA/TAIWAN -          
             Erdogan's cancer, Turkish plan for Syria and more - TR325        
       Date: Sat, 10 Dec 2011 13:04:53 -0600 (CST)                            
       From: Reva Bhalla <bhalla@stratfor.com>                                
   Reply-To: Alpha List <alpha@stratfor.com>                                  
         To: alpha@stratfor.com                                               

   SOURCE: TR325 and his business partner
   ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former NSC official in Turkey, adviser to Erdogan,
   energy expert negotiator
   PUBLICATION: Yes
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: B
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
   SOURCE HANDLER: Reva

   TR325's business partner has an old classmate friend who was the lead
   surgeon on Erdogan's most recent operation. He said that Erdogan has colon
   cancer, but they haven't seen the second biopsy results yet to see if it's
   metastasized. In the last operation, they cut out 20 cm of Erdogan's colon
   (I just looked up that the average colon is about 1.5m long.)  That's a
   really significant operation. Erdogan is not going to be able to travel
   for a while, and he's going to have to carry around with him a colonoscopy
   bag for at least 2-3 months.  The prognosis is not looking good, though.
   The surgeon said they were estimating 2 years for him.

   This is very likely going to cause major splits within the AKP.  Gul
   doesn't have much support.  Davutoglu is paranoid that everyone else is
   trying to undermine him (there's a definite competition between him and
   TR325.)  When I asked who Erdgogan trusts, two names were mentioned - Ali
   Babacan (Deputy PM) and Taner Yildiz (energy minister.)  Both sources were
   asking how the US is likely to react to this situation.  Would they try to
   back the military like the old days?  CHP is still very much divided. Both
   seemed to think the military won't be able to take advantage of the
   situation.

   On Syria - the conversation centered on how far Turkey is actually going
   to go.  TR325 explained that the Turkish plan is centered on civil war in
   Syria.  Officially, it's Turkey providing the main training,a rms and
   support to FSA. Unofficially, US and TUrkey are doing this together in
   deploying SOF for this mission.  Notice all the talk in the press now
   about civil war breaking out in Syria. This is the narrative Turkey and US
   want to build.  I pointed out that creating the conditions for civil war -
   actual neighborhood to neighborhood fighting - is still pretty difficult
   considering that the Alawite forces are still holding together, but he
   seemed to think that this can escalate within 2 months time. He also said
   without saying that they're working on making that happen. He acknowledges
   it'll be messy and it will take a lot of blood and time for a Sunni power
   to emerge in syria, but that this is the Turkish obligation.

   The Turkish plan to preempt the instability that would result from civil
   war conditions is to implement the buffer zone 5-40km into Syrian
   territory and set up refugee camps.  I asked what levers Iran and Syria
   have to get Turkey to back off in relation to PKK.  He said
   (half-jokingly) that Karilan is Turkey's man (ie. turkey can actually
   negotiate with him.)  But he said PKK third-in-command (still need to get
   this guy's name) answers to Syria and Iran. Turkey knows this very well
   and he says Syria and Iran are already making moves to threaten attacks
   via this faction.

   I'm left with a lot of questions --

   Given the instability that is likely to result within AKP over Erdogan's
   health, would Turkey really be making bold foreign policy moves, such as
   helping to create a civil war in Syria?

   Turkey appears very confident that Syria/Iran have the means to play the
   PKK card. Why risk that?

   Turkey knows they'll be dealing with a massive refugee crisis in Syria -
   why propel that situation?

   Some other points -

   TR325 believes AZ wiill be able to export 5-7bcm via ITGI for SDII. 
   Russia has its stake in Edison to keep a foothold in that route.  The rest
   he agrees is likely going to have to be shipped to Russia eventually since
   the Europeans aren't financing anything right now. He did say that SOCAR
   is flush with money right now and could actually put money down on these
   projects if they have the market demand and client base to do it.

   They were both asking me what is happening with Trinidad and Tobago. I
   told them I have no idea. They were asking because they are involved in a
   business deal to sell conventional subs to Trinidad and Tobago. They're
   assuming the US is preparing something for VZ.  They are also involved in
   similar submarine sales to Taiwan and Japan.
","2011-12-13 00:17:06",1,"2012-03-06 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5509661_fwd-alpha-insight-turkey-syria-az-us-vz-russia-taiwan.html","eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com","","goodrich@stratfor.com",""
5511573,"Re: [Military] [Fwd: Wikileaks]
","Yes, same with the FBI. They classify their laundry lists and lunch menus as
Secret. 



-----Original Message-----
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
Sent: Monday, July 26, 2010 12:32 PM
To: Matthew Powers
Cc: Military AOR; scott stewart; 'Tactical'
Subject: Re: [Military] [Fwd: Wikileaks]

Thousands of contractors would have had access to these classifications.

The ONLY classification the CIA uses is SECRET.


Matthew Powers wrote:
> Here are the classifications in the wikileaks docs, the vast majority is
> SECRET:
> 
> CONFIDENTIAL
> NATO CONFIDENTIAL
> NATO CONFIDENTIAL Releasable to GCTF
> NATO/ISAF CONFIDENTIAL REL GCTF, GIRoA
> NATO/ISAF RESTRICTED REL GCTF, GIRoA
> NATO/ISAF SECRET
> NATO/ISAF SECRET REL GIRoA
> SECRET
> UNCLASSIFIED
> 
> 
> 
> Fred Burton wrote:
>> I understand no TS or SCI was compromised.  SitRep reports mainly.
>>
>> scott stewart wrote:
>>   
>>> Has anyone seen any indication that the Wikileaks material has anything
>>> above secret?  Any TS or SCI material?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com] 
>>> Sent: Monday, July 26, 2010 12:03 PM
>>> To: Tactical; 'Military AOR'
>>> Subject: Re: [Fwd: Wikileaks]
>>>
>>>
>>> The internal report was marked not only \"secret\" but also \"Noforn\", ie
>>> not to be shared with the foreign elements of the coalition. And the
>>> source of this anxiety is explicit: \"The knowledge that TF 373 conducted
>>> a HIMARS strike must be protected.\" And it was. This crucial fact
>>> remained secret, as did TF 373's involvement.
>>>
>>> Again, the lethal attack caused political problems. The provincial
>>> governor arranged compensation and held a shura with local leaders when,
>>> according to an internal US report, \"he pressed the Talking Points given
>>> to him and added a few of his own that followed in line with our current
>>> story\". Libi remained targeted for death and was killed in Pakistan
>>> seven months later by a missile from an unmanned CIA Predator.
>>>
>>>
>>> Fred Burton wrote:
>>>     
>>>> -------- Original Message --------
>>>> Subject: 	Wikileaks
>>>> Date: 	Mon, 26 Jul 2010 11:06:46 -0400
>>>> From: 	Mike Parks <longbow99@earthlink.net>
>>>> To: 	'Fred Burton' <burton@stratfor.com>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Bunch of DSS surveillance reports (Ambo's detail) in the wikileaks
cache.
>>>>       
> 
> -- 
> Matthew Powers
> STRATFOR Research ADP
> Matthew.Powers@stratfor.com
> 
","2010-07-26 18:40:21",1,"2012-02-28 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5511573_re-military-fwd-wikileaks-.html","scott.stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:military@stratfor.com","burton@stratfor.com,military@stratfor.com,matthew.powers@stratfor.com,tactical@stratfor.com",""
5512760,"[CT] Mexico hippy bombers
","   http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090930_mexico_emergence_unexpected_threat

                   Mexico: Emergence of an Unexpected Threat

     * View
     * Revisions
   September 30, 2009 | 1745 GMT

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   PRINTPRINT Text Resize: Size              Size           Size              

    0 0ShareThis6

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

   Algeria: Taking the Pulse of AQIM

   By Scott Stewart

   At approximately 2 a.m. on Sept. 25, a small improvised explosive device
   (IED) consisting of three or four butane canisters was used to attack a
   Banamex bank branch in the Milpa Alta delegation of Mexico City. The
   device damaged an ATM and shattered the bank's front windows. It was not
   an isolated event. The bombing was the seventh recorded IED attack in the
   Federal District - and the fifth such attack against a local bank branch -
   since the beginning of September.

   The attack was claimed in a communique posted to a Spanish-language
   anarchist Web site by a group calling itself the Subversive Alliance for
   the Liberation of the Earth, Animals and Humans (ASLTAH). The note said,
   \"Once again we have proven who our enemies are,\" indicating that the
   organization's \"cells for the dissolution of civilization\" were behind the
   other, similar attacks. The communique noted that the organization had
   attacked Banamex because it was a \"business that promotes torture,
   destruction and slavery\" and vowed that ASLTAH would not stop attacking
   \"until we see your ashes.\" The group closed its communique by sending
   greetings to the Earth Liberation Front (ELF), the Animal Liberation Front
   (ALF) and the \"eco-pyromaniacs for the liberation of the earth in this
   place.\" Communiques have also claimed some of the other recent IED attacks
   in the name of ASLTAH.

   On Sept. 22, authorities also discovered and disabled a small IED left
   outside of a MetLife insurance office in Guadalajara, Jalisco state. A
   message spray-painted on a wall near where the device was found read,
   \"Novartis stop torturing animals,\" a reference to the multinational
   pharmaceutical company, which has an office near where the IED was found
   and which has been heavily targeted by the group Stop Huntingdon Animal
   Cruelty (SHAC). Novartis is a large customer of Huntingdon Life Sciences,
   the research company SHAC was formed to destroy because Huntingdon uses
   animals in its testing for harmful side effects of drugs, chemicals and
   consumer items. A second message spray-painted on a wall near where the
   device was found on Sept. 22 read, \"Novartis break with HLS.\" Two other
   IEDs were detonated at banks in Mexico City on the same day.

   These IED attacks are the most recent incidents in a wave of anarchist,
   animal rights, and eco-protest attacks that have swept across Mexico this
   year. Activists have conducted literally hundreds of incidents of
   vandalism, arson and, in more recent months, IED attacks in various
   locations across the country. The most active cells are in Mexico City and
   Guadalajara.

   For a country in the midst of a bloody cartel war in which thousands of
   people are killed every year - and where serious crimes
   like kidnapping terrorize nearly every segment of society - direct-action
   attacks by militant activists are hardly the biggest threat faced by the
   Mexican government. However, the escalation of direct-action attacks in
   Mexico that has resulted in the more frequent use of IEDs shows no sign of
   abating, and these attacks are likely to grow more frequent, spectacular
   and deadly.

  The Wave

   Precisely quantifying the wave of direct-action attacks in Mexico is
   difficult for a number of reasons. One is that the reporting of such
   incidents is spotty and the police, the press and the activists themselves
   are often not consistent in what they report and how. Moreover, is often
   hard to separate direct-action vandalism from incidents of plain old
   non-political vandalism or tell the difference between an anarchist IED
   attack against a bank and an IED attack against a bank conducted by
   a Marxist group such as the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR). Then there
   is the issue of counting. Should a series of five Molotov cocktail attacks
   against ATMs or the destruction of 20 Telmex phone booths in one night be
   counted as one attack or as separate incidents?

   If we count conservatively - e.g., consider a series of like incidents as
   one - we can say there have been around 200 direct-action attacks to date
   in 2009. But if we count each incident separately, we can easily claim
   there have been more than 400 such attacks. For example, by our count,
   there have been more than 350 Telmex phone booths smashed, burned or
   otherwise vandalized so far this year. (Activists will do things like glue
   metal shavings into the calling-card and coin slots.) However, for the
   sake of this analysis we'll go with the conservative number of about 200
   attacks.

   Now, Telmex seems to be the most popular target so far for direct-action
   attacks. In addition to hitting phone booths, activists also have attacked
   Telmex vehicles and offices and have cut Telmex cables. From their
   statements, the activists appear to hold a special hatred for Carlos Slim,
   one of the richest men in the world and the chairman of Telmex and several
   other companies. In many ways, Slim - a patriarchal billionaire
   industrialist - is the personification of almost everything that the
   anarchistic activists hate. In addition to Telmex and banks, the activists
   also have attacked other targets such as restaurants (including McDonald's
   and KFC), meat shops, pet shops, fur and leather stores, luxury vehicles,
   and construction equipment.

   The activists' most common tactics tend to be on the lower end of the
   violence scale and include graffiti and paint (frequently red to symbolize
   the blood of animals) to vandalize a target. They also frequently release
   captive birds or animals as well as use superglue and pieces of metal to
   obstruct locks, pay phones and ATM card readers. Moving up the violence
   continuum, activists less frequently will break windows, burn buildings
   and vehicles, and make bomb threats - there have been at least 157
   incidents involving arson or incendiary devices so far in 2009. To help
   put this into perspective, these activists have conducted more arson
   attacks in Mexico to date in 2009 than their American counterparts have
   conducted in the United States since 2001.

   At the high end of the violence spectrum are the IED attacks, and this is
   where there has really been an increase in activity in recent weeks. In
   the first six months of 2009, there were several bomb threats and hoaxes
   and a few acid bombs, but only two real IEDs were used. In June, July and
   August there was one IED attack per month - and so far in September there
   have been seven IED attacks in Mexico City alone and one successful attack
   and one attempted attack in Guadalajara. Again, by way of comparison,
   these eight IED attacks by Mexican activists in September are more than
   American activists have conducted in the United States since 2001.

  Proliferation of IEDs

   There are several factors that can explain this trend toward the
   activists' increasing use of IEDs. The first is, quite simply, that IEDs
   generate more attention than graffiti, glue or even an arson attack -
   indeed, here we are devoting a weekly security report to activist IED
   attacks in Mexico. In light of the overall level of violence in Mexico,
   most observers have ignored the past lower-level activity by these
   activist groups, and IEDs help cut through the noise and bring attention
   to the activists' causes. The scope and frequency of IED attacks this
   month ensured that they could not be overlooked.

   The second factor is the learning curve of the cells' bombmakers. As a
   bombmaker becomes more proficient in his tradecraft, the devices he crafts
   tend to become both more reliable and more powerful. The improvement in
   tradecraft also means that the bombmaker is able to increase his
   operational tempo and deploy devices more frequently. It is quite possible
   that the few IEDs that were reported as hoaxes in March, April and May
   could have been IEDs that did not function properly - a common occurrence
   for new bombmakers who do not extensively test their devices.

   The third factor is thrill and ego. In many past cases, militant activists
   have launched progressively larger attacks. One reason for this is that
   after a series of direct-action attacks, the activists get bored doing
   lower-level things like gluing locks or paint-stripping cars and they move
   to more destructive and spectacular attacks, such as those using timed
   incendiary devices. For many activists, there is a thrill associated with
   getting increased attention for the cause, in causing more damage to their
   targets and in getting away with increasingly brazen attacks.

   Finally, in recent years, we have noted a shift among activist groups away
   from a strict concern for human life. Many activists are becoming
   convinced that less violent tactics have been ineffective, and if they
   really want to save the Earth and animals, they need to take more
   aggressive action. There is a small but growing fringe of hard-core
   activists who believe that, to paraphrase Lenin, you have to break eggs to
   make an omelet.

   The Ruckus Society, a direct-action activist training organization,
   explains it this way in a training document: \"There is a law against
   breaking into a house. However, if you break into a house as part of a
   greater good, such as rushing into the house to save a child from a fire,
   it is permissible to break that law. In fact, you can say that there is
   even a moral obligation to break that law. In the same way then, it is
   permissible to break minor laws to save the Earth.\" In general, activists
   do not condone violent action directed at humans, but neither do they
   always condemn it in very strong terms - they often explain that the anger
   that prompts such violence is \"understandable\" in light of what they
   perceive as ecological injustice and cruelty to animals.

   In recent years there has been a polarization in the animal rights and
   environmental movements, with fringe activists becoming increasingly
   isolated and violent - and more likely to use potentially deadly tools
   like IEDs in their attacks.

  Confluences

   The very name of ASLTAH - the Subversive Alliance for the Liberation of
   the Earth, Animals and Humans - illustrates the interesting confluence of
   animal rights, ecological activism and anti-imperialism/anarchism that
   inhabit the radical fringe. It is not uncommon for one cell of independent
   activists to claim it carried out its attacks under the banner of
   \"organizations\" such as ELF, ALF or SHAC. In true anarchistic style,
   however, these organizations are amorphous and nonhierarchical - there is
   no single ELF, ALF or SHAC. Rather, the individual activists and cells who
   act on behalf of the organizations control their own activities while
   adhering to guidelines circulated in meetings and conferences, via the
   Internet, and in various magazines, newsletters and other publications.
   These individual activists and cells are driven only by their consciences,
   or by group decisions within the cell. This results in a level of
   operational security that can be hard for law enforcement and security
   officials to breach.

   As noted above, these activists have been far more active in Mexico than
   they have in the United States. One reason for this is that the operating
   environment north of the border is markedly different than it is in
   Mexico. In the United States, the FBI and local and state police agencies
   have focused hard on these activists, and groups like ELF and ALF have
   been branded as domestic terrorists. There have been several major
   investigations into these groups in recent years.

   South of the border it is a different matter. Mexican authorities are
   plagued with problems ranging from drug cartels to Marxist
   terrorist/insurgent groups like the EPR to rampant police and government
   corruption. Simply put, there is a vacuum of law and order in Mexico and
   that vacuum is clearly reflected in statistics such as the number of
   kidnappings inside the country every year. The overall level of violence
   in Mexico and this vacuum of authority provide room for the activists to
   operate, and the host of other crime and violence issues plaguing the
   country works to ensure that the authorities are simply too busy to place
   much emphasis on investigating activist attacks and catching those
   responsible for them. Therefore, the activists operate boldly and with a
   sense of impunity that often leads to an increase in violence - especially
   within the context of a very violent place, which Mexico is at the present
   time.

   This atmosphere means that the activist cells behind the increase in IED
   attacks will be able to continue their campaigns against assorted
   capitalist, animal and ecological targets with very little chance of being
   seriously pursued. Consequently, as the IED campaign continues, the
   attacks will likely become more frequent and more destructive. And given
   Mexico's densely populated cities and the activists' target sets, this
   escalation will ensure that the attacks will eventually turn deadly.

   Read more: Mexico: Emergence of an Unexpected Threat | STRATFOR 
","2011-12-12 15:33:57",1,"2012-02-27 12:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5512760_-ct-mexico-hippy-bombers-.html","stewart@stratfor.com","mailto:ct@stratfor.com","ct@stratfor.com",""
5513222,"Re: Watch officers - Please read
","   This is good stuff, Karen. Looking at this it is clear we need to do a
   better job of sending stuff to GV alerts - it makes it to OS (meaning
   monitors are doing their jobs) but not to gvalerts (shame on us). I
   commented on three below, but the point remains that we're missing GV-able
   items. The simplest solution is probably just WOs taking more time to
   become familiar with the client list so that we recognize GV items quickly
   when we're in a hurry.

   I think the breakdown of misses is very helpful. Perhaps as Orit suggested
   we should do this regularly - evaluate the previous shift's work each
   shift? This would be brutal, but it would also be a good exercise (both
   for the person being evaluated and the person doing the evaluating).
   Looking back when there is more time to consider each item, it is easier
   to see my mistakes and as such I'm much less likely to make them again.
   The evaluations would be up for comment by any of the WOs, which would
   help us improve as well. I'll (sheepishly) offer my shift today as the
   first for evaluation if Karen thinks she'll have time to grade me tonight.
   Karen, if you do, go for it - it's nighttime in Orit-land so we probably
   won't hear from her for several more hours. Probably we would only need to
   do this for a week more or less, but it wouldn't have to be a permanent
   fixture as it could become quite time-consuming.

   Here's to more effective WOs!
   Orit Gal-Nur wrote:

     These graphs definitely help us see the layout of our coverage.  It's
     also something we can do every two weeks to monitor AOR coverage from
     the OS and Alerts lists.  But we also need to consider that some of the
     AORs will have more reppable items, such as the Middle East and Europe. 
     Agree on this. Latam is important for mining/lng/oil issues for clients,
     but these don't always make it to reps.
     One side note about the list you compiled below, is it possible that my
     OS box differs from yours?  In my thunderbird, one item on the list
     below was forwarded to alerts, and a few others did not show up at all
     in OS (I don't delete anything from OS). 
     While a crucial aspect of our job is speed, sometimes it's hard to
     balance this with accuracy.  As Karen mentioned, the double and triple
     fact checking is mandatory, but it can slow us in tackling the OS in a
     timely manner.  Sometimes during the quick decision making in whether to
     rep or not, I pass a potential rep only to rep it later after reading
     another article and either seeing it a different perspective or with
     just different wording. Agreed on this, too. We should be fast, but we
     should also be accurate. The solution is to get better at both.
     We need to have exercises that allow us to look critically at our work. 
     One might be the graph below, done on a consistent basis, to see how our
     sweeping and repping is covered.  Another exercise could be to compare
     the time frames from certain days as Karen did, giving us each a chance
     to analyze the lists and eachothers'  repping mistakes.  This type of
     feedback and learning will spread to all aspects of the job and
     influence all our decision making.
     Thanks Karen, this is a good start.

     Karen Hooper wrote:

       Hi all,

       It is clear that we need more accountability and discussion of the
       principles that drive Watch Officer decision-making at Stratfor. Below
       is my own evaluation of the relationship between the OS list and the
       Alerts list between 5 am cst and 1 pm cst Feb. 4. During that time,
       there were a total of 24 items sent to the alerts list and 20 items
       sent to the gvalerts list. There were only three items sent to the GV
       alerts list between 7 am CST and 8 pm CST yesterday, which is a
       problem.

       The alerts list is closer to where it ought to be, but we may have
       missed a few items that should at the very least be brought to the
       attention of the company. We are also just not as fast as we could be.
       I know that I sometimes get caught up in sweeping, consulting with
       monitors and analysts, and double and triple checking things before i
       rep them, which puts me in a position where I've not forwarded alert
       items the list as fast as I ought to. This is something we all need to
       be acutely aware of -- we have to be reactive, and we must err on the
       side of overreaction.

       At the very bottom of this email is a graph showing our sitrepping
       patterns over the last two weeks. The data only include weekdays, and
       do double-count reps that qualify for more than one AOR. I'm not sure
       what is to be learned from it, except our sitrep coverage of Latin
       America is decidedly less than awesome and our coverage of East Asia
       is spotty. Latin America is pretty internally focused right now, but
       we need at the very  least to be picking up the cartel violence. I
       will take the lead on talking to our two monitors who touch on latam
       and putting together some tactical guidance for WOs and Monitors.

       To date, we've been really focused on the monitors, getting them up to
       speed, working out scheduling, etc. It's definitely time that we took
       a look at our own performance, and we need to be thinking about ways
       that we can improve our consistency, speed and thoroughness. Reva has
       pointed out the need to be more careful in our highlighting process,
       which is something she sees easily, first thing in the morning. But we
       are the only ones who can easily go through the OS list -- and we
       should do so in with the aim of keeping each other honest.

       By controlling the flow of information, the watch officers hold the
       family jewels of the company. This will become increasingly true, and
       it's our job to make the right call, every time.

       Below is the result of a sample i took from 5 am CST to 1 pm CST. The
       lists below are of items that probably should have been sent to alerts
       or GValerts:

       GV:
       [OS] TURKEY/ENERGY - Ankara delays natural gas tender for March 14
       [OS] ENERGY - Trans-Black Sea pipeline studies under way
       [OS] UAE/IB - Abu Dhabi plans investment of $280 bln
       [OS] KUWAIT/KSA/ENERGY - Kuwait,    Saudi to increase Neutral Zone oil
       capacity
       [OS] LITHUANIA/POLAND/SWEDEN/ENERGY - Seimas passes nuclear bill I may
       be overlooking something, but I don't see that this one should have
       been GVd.
       [OS] NORWAY/ENERGY - Turbine fire shuts down 20, 000 barrel per day
       Njord A oil platform off Norwa
       [OS] RUSSIA/SOMALIA/CT - Pirates seize Russians, British man off
       Somalia (More details) A similar article was sent to gvalerts prior to
       this one. But it raised a question in my mind - what kinds of updates
       do we need for GV items? So I asked Joe. He says there's no need to
       update a story unless it changes the fundamentals or a briefer
       contacts the WO to say it is important enough to a client to warrant
       tracking more minute changes.
       [OS] ANGOLA/SOUTH AFRICA/IB - Angolan mining potential in focus in
       South Africa I don't think this one needed to be sent to GValerts. The
       only new information is that a presentation is being given.
       S2 - NIGERIA/CT - Rebels claim Nigerian oil delta attack
       [OS] BRAZIL/TURKEY/ENERGY/IB - Petrobras, Turkiye Petrolleri Find
       Black Sea Oil, Referans Says
       [OS] CHINA/IB - Copper Rises as Costs May Curb China's Output; Nickel
       Declines
       [OS] SERBIA/US/PP/IB - Serbia, US Steel sign environmental protection
       deal
       [OS] COLOMBIA/ENERGY - Colombia To Auction Rights To Seek Oil In 151
       Blocks In 2008
       [OS] FRANCE/VENEZUELA/ENERGY/IB - Total Signs 2 Heavy Oil Study Deals
       With PDVSA
       [OS] IB - Airbus Completes First Civil Aircraft Test Flight With
       Alternative Fuel

       Alerts:
       [OS] IRAQ/IRAN/ENERGY - Baghdad protests against Iranian violations of
       Iraqi oilfields
       [OS] JAPAN/CHINA/IB - Japan sends mission to China over food poisoning
       incidents
       [OS] CHAD/CT/UN - EU Chad mission suspended but will go ahead-Solana
       [OS] US/MIL/CT- U.S. Citizen in Singapore Accused of Selling Military
       Hardware to Iran [It was too old to rep, but it should have been sent
       out]
       [OS] IB - White House Budget Request
       [OS] FRANCE/VENEZUELA/ENERGY/IB - Total Signs 2 Heavy Oil Study Deals
       With PDVSA
       [OS] ITALY - Berlusconi Rejects Government as Early Election Looms

       Other issues:
       [OS] EGYPT/GAZA/CT - Palestinian gunfire wounds 2 Egyptian policemen 
       [this was sent to the OS list three times, it was repped over an hour
       after it was first sent to the list]
       [OS] COLOMBIA/CT - Colombians in anti-Farc protests [i repped this
       later, when the numbers were made clear (half a million protesters),
       but it was still pretty impt when sent out at the beginning of the
       day]
       [OS] SPAIN/CT - Spanish police arrest Basque separatists [This was
       repped, but not until an hour after it was sent to the OS list]
       INDIA/MALAYSIA - India, Malaysia seeking ways to join hands in
       fighting terror  [this should have been resent to the OS list with a
       CT tag]

       Sitrepping by AOR over the past two weeks:

                Feb.  Feb.  Jan.  Jan.  Jan.  Jan.  Jan.  Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 
                4     1     31    30    29    28    25    24   23   22   21   
       East         3     6     5     7     3    16     4    3    8    6    8 
       Asia     
       Middle      15    15     7     8     8    17    15   11   17   14   12 
       East     
       Latin        3     4     3     3     3     2     2    1    3    4    6 
       America  
       South        6     9    11     4     5     6    11    6   11   10    5 
       Asia     
       Africa       6     8     6     2     5     1     5    1    7    3    6 
       Europe       6     7     4     8     6     3    16    9    7    9    8 
       FSU          3     5     6     7     6     9     9   11    7    6    4 

 --
 Orit Gal-Nur
 Watch Officer
 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
 orit.gal-nur@stratfor.com

  

 --
 Thomas Davison
 Watch Officer
 Stratfor
 (512) 366-0196
","2008-02-05 20:06:05",1,"2012-02-27 02:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5513222_re-watch-officers-please-read-.html","davison@stratfor.com","","hooper@stratfor.com,watchofficer@stratfor.com,orit.gal-nur@stratfor.com",""
5513250,"For the New-Terns
","","2008-06-27 20:58:41",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5513250_for-the-new-terns-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","eurasia@stratfor.com","attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc
attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc
attach/177/177181_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc"
5514431,"Re: cybersecurity
","   Hello Veni!

   Sorry for my late reply, as I've been traveling recently.

   I would like to put you in touch with Mr. Nathan Hughes our Security and
   Military analyst. He is highly concentrated on the wars in the world
   (didn't you say you had some friends in Afghanistan ;-) ). But he lead our
   security group's assessment of cybersecurity. His email address is
   Nathan.Hughes@Stratfor.com and I have spoken with him about your possible
   contact. He is also located in DC if you ever wanted to grab a coffee.

   Speaking of DC, I shall be making my way up there soon, will you be in the
   neighborhood in the next week or two?
   Other than that, everything is going well. I am about to publish a series
   on Russia's \"to-do\" list on relationships with countries it has created
   and still needs to forge. I think you will find it very interesting.

   Speak with you soon!
   Lauren

   Veni Markovski wrote:

     Hi, Lauren.
     Could you put me in touch with the people who do your cybersecurity
     stuff?

     Hope you are fine? How's work? Home?

     best,
     veni

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-02-21 20:59:01",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5514431_re-cybersecurity-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com,veni@veni.com",""
5514676,"CANVAS introduction
","","2010-05-09 23:09:53",1,"2012-06-18 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5514676_canvas-introduction-.html","marko.papic@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com","attach/13/13931_canvas prezentacija.ppt"
5514758,"[Fwd: For the New-Tern]
","","2008-08-19 19:01:46",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5514758_-fwd-for-the-new-tern-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","goodrich@stratfor.com","attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc
attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc
attach/174/174277_FSU sites.doc
attach/175/175579_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc"
5514984,"[Eurasia] FOR NEW-TERN CATHERINE
","9","2009-01-06 04:37:37",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5514984_-eurasia-for-new-tern-catherine-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","mailto:eurasia@stratfor.com","eurasia@stratfor.com,catherine.durbin@stratfor.com","attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc
attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc
attach/174/174276_FSU Parliaments.doc
attach/174/174277_FSU sites.doc
attach/175/175579_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc"
5515132,"[Fwd: New-tern info]
","2","2008-09-03 16:48:06",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5515132_-fwd-new-tern-info-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","goodrich@stratfor.com","attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc
attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc
attach/174/174277_FSU sites.doc
attach/175/175579_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc"
5515176,"INSIGHT - CHECHNYA/RUSSIA/AUSTRIA - assassination in Vienna
","   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: if Fred or Stick want it, they can have it
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: high up Kremlin source in security/prosecution
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

    

   Ismailov use to be one of Kadyrov's bodyguards and knew many highly
   secretive and intimate things about not only Kadyrov, but his relationship
   with Moscow. Having him taken out was highly important.

   It was Kadyrov's order to take him out though he informed the Kremlin
   powers that he was going to act and received Moscow's blessing.

   Kadyrov didn't send anyone to take Ismailov out in Vienna, but used OC
   assassins already there (LG: fuzzy on this, but not sure if it was
   specifically Russian, Chechen OCs, but could have also used the Turks, who
   are owned by the Russians and work with the Chechens in Austria).

   The interesting thing about this is that Russia allowed Kadyrov to act
   outside his region, which they rarely allow since it would get so much
   attention. But the Kremlin deemed this one necessary.

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-01-14 18:12:05",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5515176_insight-chechnya-russia-austria-assassination-in-vienna-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com,ct@stratfor.com",""
5516751,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA/LATVIA - Russian to head Latvia ;) 
","    

   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Moscow
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: inside Kremlin, Surkov's #2
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: C
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

    

   One of the jokes scaring the Latvian political sphere is that Russia would
   like Latvia to place Pyotr Aven (Alfa Bank President and advisor to Putin)
   as head of the new government in Riga. This discussion/joke was made
   between Aven and Putin recently with them, Surkov, (source), and Aven's
   advisor, Alexandre Gafin in the room. No one took it too seriously or as
   an actual plan. But now that rumor of any sort of push by Putin has made
   its way into Latvia, in which most government members are horrified. Aven
   comes from a Latvian family though born in Moscow. Putin hasn 't made any
   serious move this way, but it does show he's thinking about Latvia and how
   Russia can take advantage of the instability. 

    

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-03-13 17:50:10",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5516751_insight-russia-latvia-russian-to-head-latvia-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","eurasia@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
5516963,"Re: Hello from Stratfor
","   Dear Lauren,

   Thanks for your letter - we have no objections against any questions and
   any most detailed answers. We had one conversation by Skype with you. Now
   I see for your side there is no sharing personal details, i e. you need to
   confirm exchange of addresses with me. Your l-goodrich is still in my
   Skype list of contacts. So we can easily re-establish communication. We
   are ready to talk at any time - you are welcome tonight or any other time
   since we agree on communication means.

   If you think Skype is not reliable - we have only mobile (+49 1520 608 09
   61) which is even less reliable. Our landlady has a land line, so if you
   tell us particular day and time we can borrow the phone and keep it on our
   side.

   Stratfor daily bulletins kept us up well informed on the urgent events in
   the most difficult and busy times - that helped to check and correct our
   private decisions within the international context.

   I understand your admiration by travelling - which is always refreshing
   and informative for our profession, but I can't forget for a moment that
   Soviet mentality killed my parents, crippled us, destroyed our homes (BTW
   we remember your husband was killed in Siberia if we are not mistaken).
   Ok, you are there temporarily - so you can admire. Admiration - that is
   what we can not understand at Germans towards Russia!

   As for your questions - no secrets or contradictions, but it's better to
   talk that out in person.

   Most sincerely,

   Marina, Victor Kalashnikov

   2011/2/21 Lauren Goodrich <lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com>

     Hello Marina and Viktor,

      

     I hope all is well with you. I apologize for the silence, I have been
     traveling in the former Soviet states for a really long time*too long
     for me to be away from my desk. It was a fascinating trip though.

      

     My associates in the security branch of my company saw your interviews
     and were intrigued by them. There were a few questions that they were
     interested in. If you do not want to answer any of them, then do not
     feel pressured.

      

     1) Why were y*all poisoned now versus at an earlier time? I know you
     have told me a few years ago about the poisoning in your apartment, but
     we were curious on the timing of both incidents.

     2) Are you able, Viktor, to let us know what you did for the FSB/KGB, if
     those rumors are even true?

     3) Have either of you heard any rumors behind the death of Comrade J in
     which it would indicate that he was murdered?

      

     My security team is very interested in your story. I will see if it is
     possible to perhaps set up a time for us all to talk together over the
     phone. So we may learn from your experience and learn how to warn those
     we know.

      

     Your friendship is appreciated,

     Lauren
","2011-02-21 20:59:23",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5516963_re-hello-from-stratfor-.html","garbogreta280@googlemail.com","","Lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com",""
5519962,"Re: running about 7-8 minutes late -
","   oh yes... and I am not in my office. I shall be back in 10 min. Call me
   then?
   I apologize for the inconvenience and mix-up.

   Veni Markovski wrote:

     I just realized that we might have had the wrong 3 p.m. I was calling at
     3 p.m. EST, and you may be one hour behind?

     veni

     Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       sounds good... we'll talk to you soon.

       Veni Markovski wrote:

         sorry!

       -- 
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       *STRATFOR
       *T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-07-24 21:20:00",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5519962_re-running-about-7-8-minutes-late-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","veni@veni.com",""
5521421,"Re: note from Yemeni diplomatic source
","   Pinged.

   On 1/3/2011 11:24 AM, scott stewart wrote:

     Kamran,

      

     Can you ask ISI for confirmation?

      

     If he was really in Pakistan, it would either indicate closer
     coordination that we had thought - or that the pressure on AQAP is
     greater than we had thought.

      

     Still, there is a pretty robust leadership cadre in AQAP, so his loss
     would not be all that great, even if he really were killed in Pakistan.

      

      

      

     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Michael Wilson
     Sent: Monday, January 03, 2011 11:02 AM
     To: Analyst List
     Subject: Re: note from Yemeni diplomatic source

      

     here is the original btw

     Bin Laden aide killed in U.S. drone attack in Pakistan: officials+
     Jan 2 07:38 PM US/Eastern
     http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9KGHKT80&show_article=1
     ISLAMABAD, Jan. 3 (AP) - (Kyodo)-Nasir al Wahishi, a Yemeni national who
     reportedly served as an aide of al-Qaida chief Osama bin Laden, was
     killed in a U.S. drone attack in northwestern Pakistan late last year,
     Pakistani security officials said Sunday.

     The officials, who sought anonymity, said Wahishi, 32, was killed on
     Dec. 28 when two missiles were fired on a militant camp at the Ghulam
     Khan sub-district of North Waziristan.

     The officials claimed Wahishi had served as personal assistant of bin
     Laden until 2000.

     On 1/3/11 9:17 AM, Reva Bhalla wrote:

     Pakistani Intelligence leaked news of a drone strike killing Nasir
     Wahayshi, Emir of AQAP in Pakistan....
     Lol early aprils fool... first they said fad quso was  eliminated
      now this

     http://ibnlive.in.com/news/osamas-top-aide-of-killed-in-drone-strike/139261-2.html

     I apologize If I made any spelling or grammar mistakes
                                       .iPad message.

 --

 Michael Wilson

 Senior Watch Officer, STRATFOR

 Office: (512) 744 4300 ex. 4112

 Email: michael.wilson@stratfor.com

  

   --
","2011-01-03 17:33:58",1,"2012-02-27 15:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5521421_re-note-from-yemeni-diplomatic-source-.html","bokhari@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com","attach/6/6434_Signature.JPG"
5522604,"Re: [Eurasia] Fwd: [OS] BELARUS/ITALY - Italy's Berlusconi visit
 ends Belarus isolation
","   italy is becoming a Russia-annex ;)

   Matthew Powers wrote:

     Berlusconi's quotes at the beginning of the article are great.  Italy
     has been very active lately in FSU, seems like they are making a big
     push to increase their presence there.

     ----- Forwarded Message -----
     From: \"Matthew Powers\" <matthew.powers@stratfor.com>
     To: \"os\" <os@stratfor.com>
     Sent: Monday, November 30, 2009 1:23:11 PM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central
     Subject: [OS] BELARUS/ITALY - Italy's Berlusconi visit ends Belarus
     isolation

     Italy's Berlusconi visit ends Belarus isolation

     By Olga Nedbayeva (AFP) - 35 minutes ago 11-30-09

     http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iyrJcH3fsFZ8JU1V4g8xx5M7eVmA

     MINSK - Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi described Belarus
     strongman Alexander Lukashenko as 'loved' by his people Monday as he
     became the first Western leader to visit the reclusive state in 15
     years.

     Belarussians \"love you, which is shown by the elections,\" Berlusconi
     told President Lukashenko, who is often accused of human rights abuses
     and election rigging, in a declaration after talks on Monday.

     In turn, Lukashenko praised Berlusconi, currently battling accusations
     of links with the mafia and mired in sex scandals, as \"a global,
     planetary man of politics, our friend.\"

     Berlusconi's day-long visit to the former Soviet republic brought to an
     end the diplomatic isolation imposed on Belarus by the West over its
     multiple abuses of human rights after Lukashenko came to power in 1994.

     Lukashenko acknowledged the significance of the visit, telling
     Berlusconi that, \"We consider your visit not only in the context of
     bilateral relations but also as eloquent support of our country on the
     international scene.\"

     The visit focused on strengthening business ties.

     \"Our relations are not what they could be.There is potential,\"
     Berlusconi said, adding that Italy is in 15th place among foreign
     investors in Belarus.

     \"Berlusconi has unique personal contacts that contribute to the
     development of geopolitical contacts. He visits Russia and the Arab
     world,\" Lukashenko's spokesman Pavel Lyogky told journalists before the
     talks.

     The visit saw the signing of a draft agreement between Italian
     engineering group Finmeccanica and the Belarussian government. The
     leaders also agreed on the creation of a joint industrial zone in the
     town of Brest.

     In a diplomatic move, Lukashenko handed over KGB archives on Italian
     prisoners of war who were captured in Belarus.

     Last year the European Union softened its stance on Belarus and lifted a
     travel ban on Lukashenko and other Belarussian officials, in what was
     seen as a new strategy of engagement with the country.

     Berlusconi's visit came in response to Lukashenko's visit to Rome in
     April. The Italian premier said then that the time had come for Belarus
     to emerge from its isolation.

     Lukashenko has previously received political leaders with an
     anti-Western stance such as Libyan leader Colonel Moamer Kadhafi,
     Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

     The Belarussian leader was elected with a huge majority, but has a
     record of jailing opposition politicians, imposing severe restrictions
     on rallies and blocking any criticism in the state-controlled media.

     Belarussian opposition leader Anatoly Lebedko, head of the United Civil
     Party of Belarus, expressed doubts that the visit would promote
     democratic values in Belarus.

     \"Berlusconi is a colourful politician. He resembles Lukashenko, he has a
     spirit of political adventure,\" Lebedko told AFP.

     \"He is coming to Belarus as a businessman. For him, everything is for
     sale at a price, even if this requires him to sacrifice European
     values.\"

     Belarus is the only country in the European continent not to be part of
     the Council of Europe, after it was booted out in 1997 over multiple
     violations.

     It is a member of the EU's newly-formed Eastern Partnership programme,
     which is intended to regulate relations between the European Union and
     former Soviet states.

     The detente in EU-Belarussian ties comes as Belarus has regularly
     quarrelled with its traditional ally, Russia, in recent years, and
     Lukashenko has exchanged cutting remarks with Russian leaders.

     Matthew Powers
     STRATFOR Intern
     matthew.powers@stratfor.com
     matthew.powers

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-11-30 20:26:31",1,"2012-03-02 13:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5522604_re-eurasia-fwd-os-belarus-italy-italy-s-berlusconi-visit.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","eurasia@stratfor.com",""
5522668,"Insight - Russia - Security Wars
","   **from a Kremlin source who is involved in the situation.
   This is weird and I had to read it like 5 times to finally get it.
   But this is the story from behind that Kremlin article that was talking
   about the inside security wars going on that Fred sent out a few weeks
   ago.
   sorry I hadn't gotten around to this email yet.

    
   This <<war of the services>> pits the Igor Sechin/Nikolai Patrushev tandem
   (respectively the #2 of the presidential administration and the boss of
   the FSB) and the director of the Federal anti-narcotics agency (FSKN),
   Nikolai Cherkesov, as well as generals Viktor Zolotov and Evgeni Murov
   (director of the FSO, the service charged with protection of senior
   personalities, and head of Vladimir Putin's personal guard).
    
   To summarize the facts, October 1st, general Alexander Bulbov--#2 of FSKN
   in charge of operations and <<right hand man>> of Viktor Cherkesov - as
   well as three of his associates were arrested by agents of the FSB and the
   Prosecutors investigating committee. They were then placed in preventive
   detention following a judgment by the Basmanny tribunal in Moscow. They
   are suspected of corruption and illegal wiretapping. The affair took on a
   public dimension when the boss of the FSKN - in an unprecedented act -
   published a warning in the daily Kommersant against the suicidal impact of
   an open war between these power structures.
    
   In reality, the arrest of general Bulbov is but the visible tip of the
   iceberg. The genesis of this affair can be found around two scandals that
   shook the power centers in recent years which were barely broadcast
   outside the Kremlin. It involved, on one side, <<Tri Kita>>, a furniture
   smuggling case that broke in 2000 implicating senior customs and FSB
   officials. Charged with the case, the general Prosecutor's office - at the
   time directed by Vladimir Ustinov- tried to stifle a matter that risks
   plunging into an endless spiral of retaliation between Interior, Customs
   and the FSB. The situation was so delicate that Vladimir Putin had to call
   on an old university friend, Vladimir Loskutov, an investigator in the
   Saint Petersburg Prosecutor's office, to follow the case. The Russian
   president also chose to assign the FSKN, regarded as <<neutral>>. The
   other case, which finds the same parties involved and which explains the
   most recent events in Moscow, concerns contraband imports from China and
   also directly implicating the FSB, the owner of the warehouses where the
   merchandise was discovered.
    
   <<Tri Kita>> and the <<Chinese connection>> had as a direct consequence
   the dismissal of the General prosecutor Vladimir Ustinov and his team in
   the spring of 2006. The Customs service was also <<purged>> and taken over
   by a trusted associate of the president, Andrei Belyaninov. The head of
   FSB, Nikolai Patrushev, was able to save his skin, but he had to get rid
   of several associates (including the deputy director of economic security,
   Sergei Fomenko) The Sechin-Patrushev-Ustinov  clan saw in these
   misadvantures the hand of Viktor Cherkesov, whose long-held ambitions to
   become the head of the FSB are well known.
    
   The counter-offensive by the Sechin-Patrushev-Ustinov clan (resorting to
   justice) has gone through three phases.
   1)      First they decided to marginalize the Prosecutor General Yuri
   Chaika when he entered office. The Sechin-Patrushev-Ustinov clan saw
   Chaika as too close to Surkov and too close to Cherkesov. So Sechin has
   set up under the radar a new high-profile investigating committee linked
   to his office take over most of his  powers.
   2)      They then drew closer to Alexander Bastyrkin, the head of the new
   committee, who sees no objection to strengthening his team with officers
   from the FSB detached administratively. The role played by Bastyrkin's men
   during the investigation of general Bulbov owes nothing to chance. The
   very fact that Cherkesov's assistant is in personal charge of the Chinese
   smuggling and the <<Tri Kita>> cases also explains a lot.
   3)      The other signal sent by the Patrushov-Sechin clan (to which must
   be added the Interior minister, Rashid Nurgaliev) is the arrest of
   Vladimir Barsukov alias Kumarin generally presented as the <<godfather>>
   of the Tambov group, the main criminal organisation in Saint Petersburg.
   The object of Barsukov's arrest would be to compromise one of the
   principal allies of Cherkesov, general Viktor Zolotov, as well as his
   friend, Evgeny Murov. In place of a <<warning shot>>,  the
   Sechin-Patrushev-Ustinov trio had already in early summer teleguided a
   message by a Duma deputy, Nikolai Kupryanovich, who asked the General
   prosecutor to examine the possible links between Zolotov and Kumarin.
    
   Nikolay Patrushev and Igor Sechin have another reason to want to eliminate
   Zolotov : they in fact suspect him of <<traveling>> with Evgeny Murov, for
   Dmitri Medvedev. It is in fact agents of the FSO who guard over the
   contact between the first vice Prime minister and his principal links
   inside the power structures, namely Alexander Bortnikov- the head of
   economic security for the FSB - , Oleg Safonov- a former KGB agent who
   passed through the Saint Petersburg municipal administration and the Court
   of accounts, named Interior vice minister last year - and Evgeny Shkolov-
   an intelligence agent who was on duty in East Germany with Vladimir Putin
   before becoming a technical adviser to Dmitri Medvedev and taking over the
   department of economic security of the Interior ministry in2006.
    
   Now open to public view, the <<war of the services>> will without doubt
   make Vladimir Putin do what he most dislikes: intervene to arbitrate in
   his closest circle. Otherwise, the second phase of his reign risks
   beginning on a very dangerous base.
    
","2007-10-23 19:45:39",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5522668_insight-russia-security-wars-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,zeihan@stratfor.com,goodrich@stratfor.com,marko.papic@stratfor.com",""
5522874,"Re: INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Latest in Clan Wars (protect for now)
","   The FSB guys will get picked up by new jobs, mob or private services

   We just heard that Chaika has denied the removal of his worker Bagmet....
   he's fighting back, using a loophole in the laws of how to fire within his
   group.

   Peter Zeihan wrote:

     what happens to these guys once they've been removed from their offices?

     Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       CODE: RU101
       PUBLICATION:  checking
       ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
       SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  The Prosecutor General
       SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
       ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
       HANDLER: Lauren
        
       The past few weeks have been particularly difficult between the clans.
        
       Surkov/Medvedev tandem has purge a slew of people from
       Sechin/Patrushev's clan. 21 officials from the Interior Ministry, 5
       FSB Generals in the Defense Ministry and Moscow's police chief Pronin
       have all been purged.
        
       In response, Sechin/Patrushev's group has decided that they need to
       come after me and my group-the Prosecutor General's office. They have
       used their foot soldier, Alexander Bastrykin, in the Investigative
       Committee to launch a purge within my office. Bastrykin vows to not be
       owned by Sechin, though I have never believed this and now my proof is
       here. Thus far they have gotten fired the head of my Investigative
       Committee, Anatoli Bagmet-who was critical to aiding me in my work
       inside our investigations against the Siloviki. Bastrykin is planning
       on firing the heads of the regional Investigative Committees as well,
       12 in all.
        
       The problem is that Sechin/Patrushev want to come after me (Chaika),
       but Surkov will not allow such a move. What I have been told is that
       Putin has laid ground rules on how far each clan can go to  purge the
       other. For example, Surkov's request to have Interior Minister
       Nurgaliyev sacked was quickly nixed by Putin. Now that Sechin's move
       to get me fired has also been shielded from above. So instead there
       are a lot of purges happening on the second tier, like these in the
       past few weeks.
       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-12-21 21:05:26",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5522874_re-insight-russia-latest-in-clan-wars-protect-for-now-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","gfriedman@stratfor.com,zeihan@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
5522988,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Luzhkov's gaff and Med's backlash
","   **everyone is talking about this, so no one source...
   but if I had to source it...
   CODE: RU101
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

   Luzhkov just made a public (and dangerous) gaff by coming out on an ORT
   talk show in favor of the election of the Russian Federation's governors
   and presidents of republics by direct universal suffrage. The Kremlin has
   not wasted time in responding to the Mayor of Moscow's statement. Dmitri
   Medvedev  qualified the hypothesis of a return to the previous status quo
   as unrealistic and unacceptable. \"If this system is not to the liking of
   certain regional heads, they should understand that they are not private
   individuals and they may send me their resignations\". The unusually hard
   tone of the President's statement caused surprise and fed new discussions
   on the future of the capital's Mayor. The most logical period is in Autumn
   2009 when the city's council is up for election. One of the scenarios that
   comes up most frequently in discussions in Moscow is that of a merger of
   the capital with its region, the latter headed by Boris Gromov, who also
   is not very popular with the Kremlin. A heavyweight would then be
   appointed to head the new
   authority and particularly cited are Sergei Ivanov  and the secretary-
   general of the government Sergei Sobyanin.

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-12-16 17:42:29",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5522988_insight-russia-luzhkov-s-gaff-and-med-s-backlash-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
5524777,"Re: HUMINT - RUSSIA - Train explosion... went to chat with Interior
 Ministry on it.
","   I'm going to pull all the facts thus far together for a preliminary
   early-morning GV... then security can take over from there. (see... I'm
   crossing AORs)

   Lauren Goodrich wrote:

     A Transportation Minister, Igor Levitin.
     The guys that I spoke with were from both the FSB and Prosecutor's
     Office who are working on the case under the Interior Ministry.
     The Transportation Ministry and Prosecutor's Office are part of the
     Interior Ministry. But the FSB is working with IM on this.

     Fred Burton wrote:

       Does Russia have a rail minister? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Tuesday, August 14, 2007 6:27 AM
       To: 'Analysts'
       Subject: HUMINT - RUSSIA - Train explosion... went to chat with
       Interior Ministry on it.
       Okay, I went and talked with quiet a few people on this, especially at
       the Interior Ministry.
        
       This is not the top story here in Russia, but is in the top three...
       so it is still very important.
        
       The bomb went off in one of the busiest if not the busiest train
       tracks in Russia. That route between Moscow and St. Petes is used 24
       hours a day. The bomb went off late last night. It is very common by
       both common people and by businessmen to use that train overnight to
       be in Moscow all one day sleep overnight on the train and then be in
       St. Petersburg the next morning for business or other things. I myself
       have done that many times.
       No one was killed but six were injured.  
        
       The Russian authorities I spoke with are saying that wanna-be Chechen
       militants are behind this. That the attack was not from an organized
       or powerful Chechen militant group, but was created to resemble the
       2003 Chechen militant attack that killed 46 on a Russian train. The
       authorities are saying the explosives weren't powerful or well-made
       like the actual Chechen ones.
        
       I asked if this could be from Moscow-based Chechen militants or what
       Strat likes to call `home-grown' regional groups and the two
       authorities I spoke with said that that would definitely make sense
       and is something they are heavily looking into.
        
       I also asked if this was in response to Russia moving a much larger
       amount of troops into the Southern Caucasus and the authorities
       assured me that Russian forces have squashed the majority of real
       militants in Dagestan, Chechnya and Ingushetia-that this attack seemed
       to be some amateur's attempt to stage an attack that was meant to look
       like or be like those that would come from real S. Caucasus militants.
        
","2007-08-14 13:47:24",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5524777_re-humint-russia-train-explosion-went-to-chat-with-interior.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,analysts@stratfor.com,goodrich@stratfor.com",""
5528371,"The Starter Apology
","   Dear Reva,
    
   I know that you've known the truth for a while. This note is not about
   lengthy explanations or trivial justifications, it is about humble
   apologies. The rest can wait for another day.
    
   But today I need to simply apologize for my actions. I have abused your
   faith and friendship in me to the utmost degree. I have no excuse for my
   actions. They were selfish, ridiculous, disloyal and treacherous.
    
   You gave me nothing but your honest trust and confidence and I betrayed
   all this with my lies and exaggerations.
    
   I know it will take years for me to regain your trust in my work at Strat
   and that I shall never possibly regain your trust in me personally. But I
   shall spend that time to prove that your faith in my work at least was not
   misguided, as my work was genuine and hard.
    
   I have taken the past week to reflect on my deceit and myself. I have a
   lot of fundamental things wrong with me and my life. I am getting the help
   I need. I am clear now on what I have done wrong and how many people I
   have hurt both personally and professionally. I have no excuse.
    
   Thank you for listening to my apology though I do not deserve such credit.
   Feel free to contact me or not as you may need time to think about how to
   handle me in the future, which I get.
    
   Sincerely,
   Lauren
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-03-16 04:30:46",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5528371_the-starter-apology-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","reva.bhalla@stratfor.com",""
5528809,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA - sacked SMFs commander 
","   [LG: with regards to Peter's question on the fired Strategic Missile
   Forces commander today]
    

   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Senior within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   DISTRIBUTION: Eurasia, Military, Peter Zeihan
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   Solovtsov was sacked over a string of issues. It has been long coming. He
   was too vocal about his disagreement with any new arms deals with the US,
   especially about the 1500 mark for reductions. Then there are the
   embarrassing Bulava failures. His mouth plus his failures are too much for
   the Kremlin and he had to go. Solovtsov's replacement, Shvaichenko, knows
   his place and will never publicly run his mouth. Plus he has seen what
   failure will do to job security. I expect him to be a tougher commander of
   the SMFs.

   ---
   Sent from my BlackBerry device on the MTS Network 
    
","2009-08-03 22:05:52",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5528809_insight-russia-sacked-smfs-commander-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","watchofficer@stratfor.com",""
5528818,"New-tern Info...
","","2009-05-11 22:15:18",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5528818_new-tern-info-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","marko.papic@stratfor.com,robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com","attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc
attach/126/126614_Team Eurasia 090302.xls
attach/126/126615_READING LIST.doc
attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc"
5528964,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA/FAR EAST - more on new guy, Ishayev 
","    
   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   Ishayev's job will be to consolidate all the mess in the Far East. It is
   really unwieldy and chaotic in that region. Yes the governors have been
   replaced, but there hasn't been a consolidation politically or
   economically of the institutions, power and groups in order for the
   Kremlin to feel confident in the region's ability to coordinate itself or
   abroad.
    
   Ishayev's predecessor, Safonov, was suppose to do this consolidation, but
   he was too wrapped up in strong-arming the players in the region, that he
   scared off a lot of efficient people. Ishayev has a lighter touch. But he
   is no pushover, for he was trained by Surkov-who is his guardian and
   backer.
    
   The problems I foresee is that bc he is a Surkov man, that Ishayev may get
   involved in the Rosneft-vs-Surkov politics. I can not say this for sure
   since even Surkov knows that the Far East energy is Rosneft and TNK's
   turf. But lets just say Ishayev will be keeping an eye on how efficient
   those groups are.
    
   Ishayev has relationships with all three of the big Asians. But they are
   very different relationships with each. He doesn't trust the Chinese and
   sees them as an enemy and untrustworthy. He has been ordered to curb his
   feelings, but the Kremlin is keeping a close eye on him just in case.
   Ishayev thinks a relationship with the Japanese is the way for Russia's
   future. He is deeply tied into the Japanese system both politically and
   economically. Ishayev has a relationship with the Koreans, but is still
   unsure of them. He isn't against them, but doesn't feel he understands
   their game yet, like he does with the other two.
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-05-18 17:29:49",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5528964_insight-russia-far-east-more-on-new-guy-ishayev-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
5529333,"Re: Research Task - Shady Bulgarian.
","   that is good enough... thanks much darlin!

   Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

     nothing in the media or elsewhere that could link him to FSB or OC -
     that's after a quick research done. Will continue digging on this one
     but the guy has also wanted to become mayor of Sofia so I guess that at
     least rumors should have been said if he was linked to OC. Anyways, will
     let you know if I get anything else on the guy. here's his personal
     page: http://www.veni.com/cv.html

     Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       Hey missy,

       Will you do me a favor tonight/tomorrow and check into this guy: Veni
       Markovski. He has his own wikipedia page
       http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veni_Markovski. Was wondering if he has
       OC or FSB connections.

       I don't need an in depth search, but any flags you find would be
       helpful. It is not a client project, but a security problem for us.

       Thanks!

       Lauren
       --

       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       Stratfor
       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-08-11 15:15:40",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5529333_re-research-task-shady-bulgarian-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","colibasanu@stratfor.com,brycerogers@stratfor.com",""
5529417,"Greetings from Stratfor
","   Mr. Markovski,
    
   Fred Burton passed along your information to me, saying you were
   interested in speaking to someone at Stratfor who deals with the region.
   Sorry for the delay in contacting you, but the war took all my attention I
   admit.
    
   I am the Senior Eurasia analyst and admit to having recognized your name
   off the bat. I know you do much business all around Eurasia, especially
   Eastern Europe and Russia. I would love to hear your thoughts on the
   recent events, especially since you are so deeply hooked into the region.
    
   Let me know when you would like to chat; my email and contact number is
   below.
    
   Cheers,
   Lauren
   --
   Lauren E. Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-08-14 20:46:07",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5529417_greetings-from-stratfor-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","goodrich@stratfor.com,veni@veni.com",""
5530984,"Re: [CT] INSIGHT - Moscow Car Bomb
","   he's just mad at me because I called him 5 times during the night.
   It's Chaika (Russia's Prosecutor General)--- #4 in Kremlin.
   He owes his life to me and my dad, so my response to him was \"don't be a
   dick & just get me the info\"

   Fred Burton wrote:

     Sounds like this chap has the red arse.  Want me have him
     \"disappeared\"? 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: ct-bounces@stratfor.com [mailto:ct-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf
     Of Karen Hooper
     Sent: Friday, March 28, 2008 3:43 PM
     To: Analyst List; 'CT'
     Subject: [CT] INSIGHT - Moscow Car Bomb
     CODE: RU101
     PUBLICATION: yes
     ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
     SOURCES RELIABILITY: B
     ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
     SPECIAL HANDLING: Analysts & CC Fred & Anya
     SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
     <!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->
     <!--[endif]-->
      
     I am now on vacation. Dont respond with complaints.
     All I know from the reports sent to me is that the device was put on gas
     tank set to go off when the engine was started.
     Pissant shit since no body to collect. Took place in Michurinsky
     Prospekt. Car was Toyota Avensis.
     Now quit bothering me.

     --
     Sent via BlackBerry from MTS Russia

     Lauren Goodrich
     Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

     --
     Karen Hooper
     Watch Officer
     Stratfor Intern Coordinator
     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
     Tel: 703.469.2182 ext 2120
     Fax: 703.469.2189
     hooper@stratfor.com

       ------------------------------------------------------------------

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 Analysts mailing list

 LIST ADDRESS:
 analysts@stratfor.com
 LIST INFO:
 https://smtp.stratfor.com/mailman/listinfo/analysts
 LIST ARCHIVE:
 http://smtp.stratfor.com/pipermail/analysts

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-03-28 22:21:23",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5530984_re-ct-insight-moscow-car-bomb-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
5531300,"Re: Checking in
","   Good evening,
   out of my second meeting though it is nearly one in the morning. Going to
   bed now at my godfather's house.
   Everything is okay here, hope everything is well with y'all.
   Chat with y'all tomorrow.
   Lauren

   Lauren Goodrich wrote:

     Hello Gentlemen,

     I am out of my impromptu meeting and have a two hour break before my
     second meeting which should go pretty late, so I may not check back in
     tonight since I may sleep at godfather's house instead. Everything is
     okay here.

     Though I did spend the first 45 minuets of my three and a half hours
     with the Defense Committee being screamed at. It was such a hostile
     meeting, but nothing I couldn't handle. I did yell back on a few
     occasions. ;) They yelled at me for \"forcing\" them to meet with them on
     a Sunday (one guy screamed that he was being forcibly kept away from his
     wife and two babies just because \"this girl happens to be the darling of
     a powerful man in the Kremlin\"). Then they yelled at me for being a girl
     and trying to be in the \"man's world of defense\". Then for being
     connected to Stratfor and the American Administration. I thought that
     they were going to blame me for the Kursk or the fall of the Soviet
     Union they hated me so much. 

     But we did finally get past all this and discuss the Russian defense
     sector in great detail.

     Just thought y'all would get a chuckle out of my scoldings.

     Thanks!
     Lauren

     Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       Hello Gentlemen,
       One of the many unexpected impromptu meetings during this trip just
       popped up. I shall leave in a little over an hour to go meet with the
       Kremlin's Advisory Board for the Ministry of Defense. The main contact
       there is Ruslan Pukhov, though I shall be sitting down with the entire
       board. It will be at the Ministry of Defense behind the Kremlin.
       After this meeting, I shall leave for my second meeting. I shall check
       in between meetings.
       Other than that, everything is okay.
       Thanks, Lauren.
       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     STRATFOR
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-11-22 22:51:44",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5531300_re-checking-in-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com,chris.farnham@stratfor.com",""
5531544,"INSIGHT -RUSSIA -  update on Chaika-Patryushev battle
","   CODE:RU101
   PUBLICATION: no
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2 (he's too involved, to say the least)
   SPECIAL HANDLING: Secure
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   As we know Chaika's battle over who gets the new Russian FBI position has
   been fierce. Patryushev and Sechin put their guy forward, Alex
   Basturkin-who is an old companion of Putin's. Basturkin works below Chaika
   in the Prosecutor General's office, but tried to take the credit in front
   of Putin for a slew of recent OC and smuggling nabs. He was active in the
   Bulbov and Storchak affair.
    
   Well, since the end of March Chaika has put Bastyrkin on the defensive...
   he has started to clean house among the top Russian prosecutors who are
   more loyal to Bastyrkin than Chaika. He just suspended four of Russia's
   biggest prosecutors: Dmitri Dovgy, Alexei Novikov, Sergei Glukhikh and
   Yuri Ermakov. Now Chaika is starting corruption cases against all of them.
   Dovgy had received 2 million dollars in exchange for the liberation of a
   suspect, a deal all the more disgraceful in that it concerned an affair
   linked to Yukos. Ermakov and Glukhikh for their part may have worked for
   the transfer of Vladimir Barsukov -the \"godfather\" of the Tambov mafia in
   Saint Petersburg arrested last autumn - from his high-security cell in the
   notorious Matroskaya Tishina to Saint Petersburg, where he was able to
   regain his freedom thanks to other connections.
    
   To put it simply, right now Chaika is rubbing his hands. The contest
   between him against Bastyrkin appears as won for now. But, as is
   well-known, Chaika has bigger fish to fry and certain allies to help
   boost. Mainly the boss of the Federal anti-narcotics service, Viktor
   Cherkesov. With the most recent attacks by Chaika on Patryushev's man
   Bastyrkin, Cherkesov believes more than ever in his chances to replace
   Nikolay Patryushev in the Lubyanka after mid-May.
    
   Of course, all this is up to Putin in the end, who is trying to find a way
   to remove Patryushev from his post without disrupting the balance. One
   option is to offer him a post as vice Prime minister in charge of power
   structures; the other option is to give a delay on any shifts to see how
   snap reactions to the power handover go first and then start to make
   changes in autumn.
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-04-11 06:36:51",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5531544_insight-russia-update-on-chaika-patryushev-battle-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","reporting@stratfor.com",""
5532194,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA/US - few tidbits from Surkov on US trip
","   CODE: RU143
   LG: Met with Surkov in NYC for brunch... we only had 2 hours bc I gave him
   short notice, but we discussed very little on his cause for being in the
   States and a lot on the Kremlin Wars stuff.
    
   Surkov arrived late Thurs night. He was suppose to have meetings arranged
   for him in DC, but there is a general boycott going on in the city against
   him. He is VERY displeased about it.
    
   Surkov held a private chat with McFaul this weekend & will hold the Civil
   Society group with McFaul on Wednesday.
    
   His other meetings (he wouldn't say who with) were canceled because 71
   members of Congress are demanding that the US boycott the Obama-Medvedev
   Civil Society group and Surkov's visit to the US overall. It is Surkov
   himself they have a problem with. The way the congressmen say it is that
   Surkov is behind Russian authoritative course-which he said laughingly
   reminding me that Russia has only known authoritative rule for a thousand
   years. 
    
   Surkov had only to tell McFaul what he wanted while in the states-about
   Russia's new reality. Russia's ability to do what it needs without fear of
   the US, though the US still needed Russia.  But McFaul wouldn't listen to
   anything from him, bringing up the same stalled issues of START, etc.
   Other than that, he said McFaul was a \"fool\" and it was a pity that this
   was the man Obama listens to on Russia.
    
   Because of the unwelcome reception in DC, Surkov has stopped off in NYC
   for a few days with his delegation (lawyers, economists, Gazprom, etc).
    
   Other than this, Surkov didn't want to discuss his current trip. He seemed
   really angry over the general boycott against him, since it wasn't
   anti-Russia sentiments (which he thrives off of) but anti-Surkov
   sentiments. It seemed to me that there was something else pretty big in
   that which he wasn't telling me.
    
   **LG: I'll type up the Kremlin wars stuff and some small other things in
   the morning. Crashing now
    
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2010-01-25 04:39:40",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5532194_insight-russia-us-few-tidbits-from-surkov-on-us-trip-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
5533172,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Christmas attacks 
","   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION:  background
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the PG office
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Prosecutor General
   SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
   HANDLER: Lauren

   These are the four guys the FSB & Interior Ministry is trying to find this
   week in connection to a planned attack in Moscow on Orthodox Christmas.
   The plot is for a major attack on some of the religious gatherings in the
   city. Security has been stepped up in all major celebrations and we are
   prepared.

   It is strange that the first suspect is not from the Caucasus.
   1. Alexander Tikhomirov - a native of the Republic of Buryatia, 27 years
   old. Known by the nickname \"Said Buryat\"

   2. Tazieff Ali, 35 years old. Nickname - Magas.

   3. Timur Tsotiev, 22 years old.

   4. Ali Jani, 17 years old. Brother's widow known Ingush policy Maksharip
   Aushev.

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-12-30 16:20:31",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5533172_insight-russia-christmas-attacks-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,secure@stratfor.com",""
5536407,"Re: FW: email of Fred Burton
","   Okay, heard back from my side.
   He is hooked into the Bulgairan OC, but nothing too shady bout that since
   he is Bulgarian.
   He is not hooked into the Russians either through OC or FSB.

   Fred Burton wrote:

     Thank you

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2008 11:39 PM
     To: Fred Burton
     Subject: Re: FW: email of Fred Burton
     Markovski is a huge internet mogul in Bulgaria. He is kinda a strange
     guy, but very powerful in business circles. I've shipped his name to my
     ppl to see if he is hooked into FSB or OC. But he is one of the biggest
     founders of Internet in Bulgaria and the region. I know he has ties into
     Russia and the rest of the CIS.

     To be honest, I can't imagine him having a \"gmail\" account with his own
     name on it. That seems really suspect to me since he is such a powerful
     and rich dude.

     Fred Burton wrote:

        Any idea who these folks are?  Thx  

       -----Original Message-----
       From: veni Markovski [mailto:venimarkovski@gmail.com] On Behalf Of
       Veni Markovski
       Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2008 4:46 PM
       To: service@stratfor.com
       Subject: email of Fred Burton

       Hi.

       I am looking for the e-mail of Mr. Burton. Would be glad, if you can
       send it.

       Thank you.

       Sincerely,

       Veni Markovski

       Senior Advisor for International Projects
       <http://www.daits.government.bg/>State Agency for IT and
       Communications <http://www.government.bg/>Council of Ministers |
       REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA
       ----------------
       email: <mailto:veni@veni.com>veni@veni.com | email2:
       <mailto:veni@daits.government.bg>veni@daits.government.bg
       office: +1-646-873-7708 | office2: +359-2-401-8008 | fax:
       +1-212-319-5955 Bulgarian Consulate General, 121 E 62nd Str., New
       York, NY 10021, USA

     --

     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-08-11 15:15:23",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5536407_re-fw-email-of-fred-burton-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com",""
5537607,"Re: FW: Hi
","   I'll ping him... he's a straaaaange man & could be interesting.

   Fred Burton wrote:

 
 Any interest in talking to him? 

 -----Original Message-----
 From: Veni Markovski [mailto:veni@veni.com]
 Sent: Tuesday, August 12, 2008 8:39 AM
 To: Fred Burton
 Subject: Re: Hi

 Hi.
 I saw Strafor's George Fridman being quoted in the New York Times on the
 situation in Georgia, and that triggered my interest, as I have a lot of
 contacts on different levels in Russia/CIS/Black Sea region.
 I would be thankful if you could point me to someone at Stratfor, who is
 dealing with the region, so that we can exchange some information, and see
 if there might be potential for some future cooperation.

 Would it be possible to talk to someone over the phone? My phone is
 646-873-7708

 Thanks.


  

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-08-12 18:51:08",1,"2012-02-29 11:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5537607_re-fw-hi-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,zeihan@stratfor.com",""
5537645,"Re: INSIGHT - CHINA/KAZAKH - New Uranium Deals in Kazakhstan
","   Russia owns much of Kaz's uranium industry. Russia struck quite a few
   deals with China a few years back on jointly develpoing Kaz uranium.

   Matt Gertken wrote:

     Kazakhstan is counterbalancing Russia with deals like this uranium mine
     deal, I agree. But I'm not sure about China being so much more confident
     about their inroads to Kazakhstan -- why would the Chinese proceed with
     overoptimism, having seen Russia's willingness to exert itself and
     reclaim areas of past influence? won't Russia try to shorten Astana's
     leash at some point?

     Ultimately, will Moscow simply have to accept Beijing's dominance in
     purchasing Kazak's resources, or will there be a clash down the road
     when competition becomes fiercer?

     Jennifer Richmond wrote:

       SOURCE: CN65
       ATTRIBUTION: Ex-govt Aussie Source
       SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian State Senator
       PUBLICATION: Background
       SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
       ITEM CREDIBILITY: 1
       DISTRIBUTION: Analysts, EA, Central Asia
       SPECIAL HANDLING: None

       I think the source got this from some OS press (with his own
       interpretation of events), but he is in the know on Chinese resource
       deals and says he can get more if we are interested.  If so, please
       send me specific questions.

       I don't know if you guys saw, but the Chinese have this month acquired
       large stakes in the uranium mining and downstream uranium industry in
       Kazakhstan.

       CGNPC has taken a 49% interest in two mines run by Kazatomprom. CNNC
       has also taken a 49% interest in another Kazakh company that will do
       conversion and possibly processing.

       Obviously these conjoined deals have a lot of implications. First,
       China is feeling much more confident in Central Asia, and Central Asia
       is feeling much more comfortable with China.

       On another level, this can be seen as Kazakhstan giving an enormous
       finger to Russia.

 --
 Jennifer Richmond
 China Director, Stratfor
 US Mobile: (512) 422-9335
 China Mobile: (86) 15801890731
 Email: richmond@stratfor.com
 www.stratfor.com



  

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   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-11-25 15:12:48",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5537645_re-insight-china-kazakh-new-uranium-deals-in-kazakhstan-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
5537937,"Re: INSIGHT - Sechin in Vene & Cuba
","   he also doens't travel much... ppl tend to come to him instead. His ego
   doesn't fit on most planes.

   scott stewart wrote:

     Wow. Another piece of the puzzle falls into place.

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
     [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Lauren Goodrich
     Sent: Wednesday, September 17, 2008 9:51 AM
     To: Analyst List
     Subject: Re: INSIGHT - Sechin in Vene & Cuba
     head of all Russian defense industries & exports

     scott stewart wrote:

       Who is Chemezov and what does he signify?

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
       [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Lauren Goodrich
       Sent: Wednesday, September 17, 2008 5:11 AM
       To: Analyst List
       Subject: INSIGHT - Sechin in Vene & Cuba
       CODE: RU101
       PUBLICATION: yes
       ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
       SOURCES RELIABILITY: B
       ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
       SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

       Chemezov went with him, so that should tell you what direction the
       talks went in. 
       --
       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       Stratfor
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

       ------------------------------------------------------------------

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     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

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   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-09-17 16:01:38",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5537937_re-insight-sechin-in-vene-and-cuba-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
5539050,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA/ESTONIA - few details on Russian spy in Tallinn
","   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Moscow
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: high within law enforcement
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: B
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
   The Estonian authorities confirmed something about which hardly anyone
   doubted anyway - that Herman Simm, a top civil servant in the Ministry of
   Defense arrested on 21 September for passing intelligence to a foreign
   power was working for the SVR.
    
   Born in 1947, during the Soviet period Herman Simm worked at the Ministry
   of the Interior and apparently was recruited by the KGB while he was a
   student at the MVD Academy in Moscow. After confessing and having decided
   to cooperate fully with the law, he said that he had been blackmailed by
   the Russian services that had threatened to reveal his connection to the
   KGB during the Soviet period.
    
   It is an extremely embarrassing business for Tallinn as, until March 2006
   Simm had access the country's most sensitive documents. In fact, he
   directed the State secrets department for six years after heading the
   Estonian Minister of Defense's information analysis bureau between 1995
   and 2000. He also had access to NATO documents that had been passed to
   Estonia under the Alliance's information exchange procedures. Although he
   was taken in for questioning by his country's counter espionage authority
   he was in fact unmasked by a foreign agency.
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-12-16 17:40:31",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5539050_insight-russia-estonia-few-details-on-russian-spy-in-tallinn.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
5539167,"Discussion ? - Brz FM fears more acts of violence in	agriculture
 sector against braziguayos
","   how much worse?

   Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

Amorim teme mas actos de violencia contra brasiguayos                                             
                                                                                                  
El ministro de Relaciones Exteriores del Gobierno de Lula dijo que la situacion se agravo desde   
que Lugo asumio el poder en Paraguay, el pasado 15 de agosto. Folha de Sao Paulo reprodujo el     
informe.                                                                                          
                                                                                                  
http://www.ultimahora.com/notas/186762-Amorim-teme-m%C3%A1s-actos-de-violencia-contra-brasiguayos 
                                                                                                  
The Brazilian FM Celso Amorim comments on the situation of Brazilian farmers in Paraguay comes    
from a government report (turned in at the end of Dec 08) that was publicly published by Folha    
yesterday.  In the report Amorim say that, while the situation in Paraguay's country side remain  
relatively under control, there is still a risk that violence will increase.  He also stated that 
Paraguayan Pres. Lugo's promises of land reform (which have yet to be fulfilled) have exacerbated 
tensions between Brazilians and Paraguayans living in the countryside.                            
                                                                                                  
El canciller brasileno Celso Amorim sostiene que la situacion de los brasiguayos es tensa y       
corren el riesgo de sufrir mas actos de violencia.                                                
                                                                                                  
Amorim hace dicha evaluacion en un informe que envio al diputado federal Raul Jungmann (PPS-PE),  
a pedido de este, a fines de diciembre, segun publico ayer Folha de Sao Paulo en su sitio web.    
                                                                                                  
El ministro brasileno expresa en el documento que la ultima ola de conflictos agrarios ocurrieron 
al final del 2004 e inicio del 2005. Despues mermo hasta que la situacion se agravo luego de la   
eleccion del presidente de la Republica de Paraguay, Fernando Lugo.                               
                                                                                                  
El articulo de Folha dice que el documento tiene 11 paginas, esta firmado por Amorim y fue        
enviado al cuerpo legislativo brasileno.                                                          
                                                                                                  
El canciller sugiere que las promesas de Lugo de hacer una reforma agraria profunda, que todavia  
no se materializo, exacerban las tensiones latentes entre los brasileros campesinos y los grupos  
de sintierras paraguayos.                                                                         
                                                                                                  
El ministro relata que la situacion en el campo paraguayo permanece relativamente bajo control,   
pero agrega que eso no significa que no haya riesgo de aumento de la violencia, con las           
consecuencias que puede generar.                                                                  
                                                                                                  
Amorim describe testimonios de brasileros que buscan alguna solucion por medio de la sede         
diplomatica en Asuncion y quienes dicen que los funcionarios publicos paraguayos les piden coima  
para regularizar su situacion migratoria, segun comenta Folha.                                    
                                                                                                  
La situacion de inseguridad es mayor en el Departamento (Estado en Brasil) de San Pedro, segun el 
canciller. \"La posibilidad de un conflicto y de la explosion de violencia en esa zona es grande\", 
afirma el ministro brasileno.                                                                     
                                                                                                  
SIN REFORMA. Amorim dijo que Lugo \"no presento hasta el momento un programa de reforma agraria,   
pese al destaque que dio al este tema a lo largo de su campana electoral\".                        
                                                                                                  
El ministro recordo que Paraguay fue el ultimo integrante del Mercosur que aprobo el acuerdo de   
residencia mutua de ciudadanos de paises miembros, pero aun no esta en vigencia porque falta      
depositar -en el bloque- unas simples pero indispensables formalidades.                           
                                                                                                  
Sin ese acuerdo, es mas dificil todavia regularizar la situacion de los brasiguayos, sostuvo.     
Agrego que la situacion empeora cuando ellos ni siquiera tuvieron acceso a la escuela.            
                                                                                                  
El canciller reclama al presidente paraguayo Fernando Lugo proteccion a los brasiguayos y relata  
que algunos de estos sufrieron atropello a sus propiedades. \"Espera que el Gobierno paraguayo     
cumpla con su promesa de actuar cumpliendo estrictamente la legislacion vigente, preservando los  
derechos de los migrantes que desean colaborar para el desarrollo del pais\", relata Folha de Sao  
Paulo.                                                                                            

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   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-01-12 14:45:04",1,"2012-03-13 09:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5539167_discussion-brz-fm-fears-more-acts-of-violence-in-agriculture.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
5539759,"Re: DISCUSSION - AQ plot in Russia...
","   this was a friday night comment... so i dunno how much vodka was in it.
   ah, russia

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

     wow, if that's the message they're feeding you, then that does a pretty
     good job of convincing me that this was fabricated
     On Apr 17, 2009, at 9:58 AM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       from RU101 (Kremlin official):  According to the FSB, this is a lesson
       to all those who help the Americans out with their wars... we're the
       ones who get hit.

       Fred Burton wrote:

         Lauren is spot on.  The Russians, unlike us, have learned their
         lesson. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

         From: analysts-bounces@stratfor.com
         [mailto:analysts-bounces@stratfor.com] On Behalf Of Lauren Goodrich
         Sent: Friday, April 17, 2009 9:27 AM
         To: Analyst List
         Cc: 'CT AOR'
         Subject: Re: DISCUSSION - AQ plot in Russia...
         Russia isn't going to get involved in the fight... just ain't gonna
         happen.

         Reva Bhalla wrote:

           also, if we assume for a sec that the plot is real, let's look at
           the motive...
           yes, the Afghan jihadists hate the Russians. But they also dont
           want Russia to get involved in the fight. Why provoke Moscow?
           On Apr 17, 2009, at 9:23 AM, Ben West wrote:

             Right, the target set is completely different - the only
             similarity that's there is the easter link.  Considering AQ has
             never shown any interest in attacking on Easter before the
             Manchester plot, I find it interesting that all of a sudden
             there's another Easter plot in Russia. 

             Lauren Goodrich wrote:

               that was against \"western decadence\" though.... these targets
               have nothing to do with that....
               plus it is nearly impossible to get a taxi near Lubyanka.

               Ben West wrote:

                 The fact that it was timed for Easter (albeit orthodox
                 easter so different day) makes me think maybe this was
                 linked to the thwarted UK plot.
                 The MO is different though - in Manchester they were going
                 after shopping centers and soft targets, but these targets
                 are WAY harder.  They are going to have way more security
                 and wouldn't be as easy to penetrate.  If this was a real
                 threat, it was much more ambitious than the Manchester plot.

                 Lauren Goodrich wrote:

                   **okay... I was forwarded a \"leak\" from a Pravda
                   journalist who said that the FSB was claiming that a major
                   terrorist (AQ, not Chechen) was thwarted.... I put the
                   details that were \"leaked\"... & then my conversation with
                   the chief Kremlin guy on this topic & his reservations
                   about the FSB's claim...
                    
                   Leaked from an FSB rep to media pal...
                   Who: al-Qaeda (8 foreign \"suspects\" have been arrested)
                   When: Orthodox Easter... this weekend.
                   Targets: Lubyanka, Kazan Capital Building, MIA and United
                   Russia offices
                   How: taxis filled with explosives... so car bombs
                   (confiscated by the FSB)
                   About the suspects:
                   -used fake guest-worker passports (both Indian and Azeri)
                   to get into Kazan
                   -the men were fluent in Russian, Pushtu, Dari, Arab and
                   Turkish
                    
                   CONVERSATION WITH SENIOR KREMLIN WHO IS PART OF THIS (a
                   back and forth conversation, so it is a bit disjointed):
                    
                   -I can just confirm to you that the leaked plots are very
                   real or so I have been told by the FSB. We will not let it
                   happen of course if they are, especially not now.
                   -I have been kept off the investigative part of this case
                   since the FSB and Tatar security agencies are taking it,
                   though I will most likely be prosecuting the suspects
                   unless it gets transferred to MIA.
                   -It was not just car bombs, but taxis specifically since
                   so many foreigners drive taxis in Moscow, so it would make
                   them inconspicuous.
                   -There is no Chechen link to these plots, but the FSB is
                   saying they are South Asian al Qaeda. It could be linked
                   to Russia's role in Afghanistan, though I am just
                   speculating. It is unheard of such an attack inside of
                   Russia that does not have Chechen links, but the FSB
                   assures me that it is separate.
                   -This is what has made me a touch suspicious of this plot.
                   The FSB has become rather mouthy recently about how the
                   US's war will stir up militants who will be angry at
                   Russia for helping the US. It also comes after your
                   company's articles on a possible backlash if Russia should
                   get involved. And suddenly a highly intricate and well
                   developed plot (in which the suspects already had their
                   passports and were in the country with explosives ready)
                   is uncovered that I would expect to take some time to
                   organize.
                   -The other part that does not quiet make sense to me is
                   why there were plots in Kazan. The other targets makes
                   sense (though United Russia building is a stretch since it
                   is not part of foreign policy or security), but to strike
                   Kazan would hit part of these guys' networks and really
                   piss off those that harbor them.
                   -I have to go with the FSB's assessment that this was a
                   real plot, though I have my doubts that I can not of
                   course come out with.
                    
                    

                   <!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]-->
                   <!--[endif]-->  
                   --
                   Lauren Goodrich
                   Director of Analysis
                   Senior Eurasia Analyst
                   STRATFOR
                   T: 512.744.4311
                   F: 512.744.4334
                   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
                   www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890

               --
               Lauren Goodrich
               Director of Analysis
               Senior Eurasia Analyst
               STRATFOR
               T: 512.744.4311
               F: 512.744.4334
               lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
               www.stratfor.com

 --
 Ben West
 Terrorism and Security Analyst
 STRATFOR
 Austin,TX
 Cell: 512-750-9890

         --
         Lauren Goodrich
         Director of Analysis
         Senior Eurasia Analyst
         STRATFOR
         T: 512.744.4311
         F: 512.744.4334
         lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
         www.stratfor.com

       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-04-17 17:02:42",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5539759_re-discussion-aq-plot-in-russia-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com,ct@stratfor.com",""
5539804,"INSIGHT - RUSSIA/HEALTH - restrictions for swine flu control
","    
   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   We have no cases thus far and I mean that. I am not just telling you that.
    
   As you mentioned we have already stopped all meat shipments form the
   Western Hemisphere. No meat from South, Central or North America after the
   package date of April 21 will be allowed in the country. We are
   considering cutting all meat shipments from any region, but will watch the
   next few days before we take that step. Also, if the West can get this
   flue under control we could open up our meat imports in as soon as one
   week.
    
   Anyone on a plane that has anyone coming from the US, Canada or Mexico is
   being checked for the Swine Flue. We are lucky that there are no direct
   flights from Mexico to Russia, but it has also made it difficult to screen
   those passengers that have been from Mexico and stopped off in Europe or
   other destinations before arriving in Russia. But it does not matter if
   the plane stopped in a different location, but everyone on board will have
   their temperatures checked with contact-free heat sensors. The same for
   their luggage. Any plane arriving in Russia is being sprayed with
   disinfectant upon arrival and unused meal in any plane arriving in Russia
   is being destroyed.

   We understand such outbreaks and have taken measures similar to this when
   Avian flue broke out in Asia and we are constantly battling Bovine Fever
   in the Caucasus from Africa.
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-04-28 14:01:53",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5539804_insight-russia-health-restrictions-for-swine-flu-control-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","mailto:analysts@stratfor.com","analysts@stratfor.com",""
5540137,"Re: Every time I leave country.....
","   Doing ok.... was uncomfortable tonight at a happy hour when I started
   passing my card out to a table of 9 energy company presidents and a Dutch
   guy goes \"Stratfor? I didn't know the CIA operated this far from home!
   Guess its not just the Russians tapping our phones at the hotel tonight,
   lads.\" Then half the table (mainly Saudis, Algerians, Libyans, etc) got up
   and left bc of me. Grrrrreeeeat. I tried to explain that the CIA doesn't
   know a tenth of what I do about this country, but they were freaked out.
   Oh well...
   Other than that things are good. I went to a market this morning and
   bought a ton of fresh fruits (it is apple, strawberry and cherry season
   here & fruit is allll over the place). I'm also obsessed with the gym &
   swimming pool here... but I think I offend the Muslim men every time I go
   down there, but oh well, it isn't against the law even if they don't like
   it.
   I hope Jez is good for you!!

   rwgo6@aol.com wrote:

     You said a few days ago tht you thought that this would happen - when is
     she getting married?  You haven't gotten out of debt for the last one
     yet...I am so happy for her!  How are you?  Is the conference
     interesting?  Jez is doing much better!  She's sleeping with me and
     doing just fine.  No doubt that she misses you, though.  She and
     Schnitzie and Anya gave your dad a Father's Day II gift and card - he
     got a kick out of it. The dinner at Mimi's was yummy!  Love and miss
     you, Mom

     -----Original Message-----
     From: Lauren Goodrich <goodrich@stratfor.com>
     To: jennifer johnson <jenniferjohnson22@hotmail.com>; Audrey Rocha
     <audrey_n_rocha@yahoo.com>; rwgo6@aol.com; Meredith Miles
     <mgmiles@comcast.net>; Carter Goodrich <ckgoodrich@gmail.com>
     Sent: Sun, Jun 21, 2009 10:57 pm
     Subject: Every time I leave country.....

     Every time I leave the country...... someone gets engaged.....
     Jen Hebert got engaged last night to her boyfriend Johnathan....
     He is fabulous and I am so happy for them.
     But unfortunately I am maid of honor and have another wedding to deal
     with-- yuck.
     Just kidding... I have a feeling she'll have Meredith-like organization
     with her planning.
     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     STRATFOR
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     A Good Credit Score is 700 or Above. See yours in just 2 easy steps!

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-06-22 19:16:37",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5540137_re-every-time-i-leave-country-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","rwgo6@aol.com",""
5540258,"Re: T-Weekly next week?
","   I've seen it too... fully understand the consequences.
   The Russians are so much crazier than what ppl think.

   Fred Burton wrote:

     The ragheads and white hate nuts are wimps.  The Russians are killers. 
     With your properties and such, it may behoove you not to toss kerosine
     on a fire.  I've seen them kill.   

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Wednesday, March 26, 2008 5:01 PM
     To: Fred Burton
     Cc: 'scott stewart'
     Subject: Re: T-Weekly next week?
     I am addressing this with both my father and with Chaika tonight...
     FSB and Surkov's group already know I work here, so going to ask if it
     matters anymore... I more worried about my picture than my name, but I
     will let y'all know.

     Fred Burton wrote:

       sounds good
        
       but, are you sure that you want your name on it Lauren, in light of
       your past issues and your father? 
        
       these folks don't mess around and everybody already hates me.   stick
       too. 

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: scott stewart [mailto:scott.stewart@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Wednesday, March 26, 2008 4:44 PM
       To: 'Fred Burton'
       Cc: 'Lauren Goodrich'
       Subject: FW: T-Weekly next week?
       FB,
        
       Is this OK with you?
        
       I think it's an interesting subject.
        
       -----Original Message-----
       From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Wednesday, March 26, 2008 5:07 PM
       To: scott stewart
       Subject: T-Weekly next week?

       Hey Stick...
       Peter mentioned that my discussion on the rise in high profile
       killings in Russia could be the T-Weekly.
       That sounds great to me if you're on board.
       Plus you'd get the week off from writing it. ;-)
       Lemme know and I'm game.
       --

       Lauren Goodrich
       Eurasia Analyst
       Stratfor
       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

     --

     Lauren Goodrich
     Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-03-26 23:04:20",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5540258_re-t-weekly-next-week-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","burton@stratfor.com,scott.stewart@stratfor.com",""
5540308,"Re: MORE Re: INSIGHT - CHINA/MONGOLIA - Uranium - CN65
","   yea.. .there were quite a few indians at the mining conference that was
   staying at my hotel.
   they weren't so fun to talk to (sticks in the mud).

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

     the Indians have also been dealing heavily with the Kaz in getting their
     uranium. when i was there last there was a giant Kaz delegation there
     and my Indian defense contacts said all their talks centered on uranium
     deals. not sure how much trouble the indians have had in seeing htese
     deals through but i can find out
     On Jul 29, 2009, at 8:13 AM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       Kaz owns their own uranium with companies that just so happen to have
       Kremlin-ers on the boards...
       I even talked to Chinese companies about this while in Kaz and they
       told me how hard it was to get into uranium there.

       Rodger Baker wrote:

         l can see if i can get any more info from the mongolians on this if
         we are interested. 
         let me know
         On Jul 29, 2009, at 8:01 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:

           i thought the russians pretty much owned the uranium industry in
           Kaz

           is my info dated?

           Jennifer Richmond wrote:

             In response to my question: Do you mean to say that China is now
             interested in Mongolia because they are possibly being blocked
             by Russian interests in Kazakhstan?

             No, the Chinese have pretty much wrapped up the uranium in
             Kazakhstan, and now they are trying to secure uranium in
             Mongolia as well.  Interestingly, CNNC or its subsidiaries were
             involved in both countries.
             In China, the importation of uranium is controlled by the
             central government.  They have theoretically always done this,
             but in the middle of last year they reiterated central control
             of uranium imports.  Effectively, most imports are either
             undertaken by CNNC, China Guangdong, or Sino Steel (yes, that
             last one is correct).  There may be one other authorised
             importer.  All of this means that any uranium investment is more
             centrally planned and controlled than any other outward
             investment.
             As for the Russians, I suspect they or the Americans may have
             prodded the Mongolians to rebuff the Chinese after they took
             their stake in Western Prospector.  Alternatively, the
             Mongolians may have chosen to do it on their own volition.
              Either way, the Russians are feeling under pressure.

             Antonia Colibasanu wrote:

               SOURCE: CN65
               ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government
               and 
               natural resources
               SOURCE DESCRIPTION:  Former Australian Senator.  Source is 
               well-connected politically, militarily and economically.  He
               has become a
               private businessman helping foreign companies with M&As
               PUBLICATION: Yes but with no attribution
               SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
               ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2/3
               DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
               SPECIAL HANDLING: None
               SOURCE HANDLER: Jen

               CNNC (China National Nuclear Corporation) recently acquired a
               majority stake in Western Prospector, whose sole project is
               the Gurvanbulag Central deposit in Mongolia.  This deposit is
               actually covered by tenements in favour of three companies -
               Western Prospector, Khan, and Laramide.  My suspicion is that
               the CNNC move on Western Prospector was the prelude to raids
               both of the other companies, with a view to possible merger.
                Laramide is particularly vulnerable, as the weak equity
               market has constrained their ability to raise capital.
                Laramide has projects in Australia, which are currently on
               care & maintenance for this reason.
               As you know, relations between China and Mongolia are strained
               from time to time.  The question is whether this has been
               stoked by Russia, who would not have been happy with China
               taking 70% of Kazatomprom, and other Kazakh uranium processing
               assets earlier this year.  Russia, in turn, is quietly trying
               to get a foothold in Australian uranium exploration, which is
               the first time this has happened. 
               In short, China's massive nuclear power expansion plan
               requires significant amounts of uranium.  This has led them to
               try to secure uranium in Central Asia and Mongolia, which it
               might consider in its sphere of influence.  The problem is the
               Russians have pretensions/expectations there also.

       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       STRATFOR
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   STRATFOR
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2009-07-29 15:31:43",1,"2012-02-29 14:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5540308_re-more-re-insight-china-mongolia-uranium-cn65-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
5542676,"[Fwd: For the New-Tern]
","","2008-08-19 19:01:46",1,"2012-02-27 00:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5542676_-fwd-for-the-new-tern-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","goodrich@stratfor.com","attach/126/126613_FSU sweep list.doc
attach/126/126616_GV Client List for Team.doc
attach/174/174277_FSU sites.doc
attach/175/175579_GEOPOLITICAL IMPERATIVE - RUSSIA.doc"
5542707,"Re: From Russian source
","   Crimea is 90% dependent on Russia economically and socially...
   it would split from Ukr in a heartbeat.

   Peter Zeihan wrote:

     source is correct -- Crimea only became Ukrainian territory recently

     hell, Ukraine didn't have any political identity separate from Russia
     until very recently

     but a 'legal' challenge wouldn't work -- founding charter of the CIS
     (1993) recognized the soviet provincial boundaries

     of course we've seen in the past month how little that actually
     means....

     George Friedman wrote:

       Did you know the Crimea was Russian until Kruschev gave it to the
       Ukrainian SSR in 1954 or 1956? The only legal deal between modern
       Russia and Ukraine is a 1997 friendship Treaty and if it were
       rescinded then the legal status of the Crimea could be challenged.
        
       Fundementally, the Russians strongly feel that although the USSR broke
       up in 1991, it was on the understanding of further closeness amongst
       its core members and they feel betrayed this hasn't happened
       (especially in Ukraine
        
        
        
       So this is how the Russians would approach the Sevastapol issue.
        
       George Friedman
       Chief Executive Officer
       STRATFOR
       512.744.4319 phone
       512.744.4335 fax
       gfriedman@stratfor.com
       _______________________
        
       http://www.stratfor.com
       Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
       700 Lavaca St
       Suite 900
       Austin, Texas 78701
        

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   --

   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   Strategic Forecasting, Inc.
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-08-27 17:02:12",1,"2012-02-29 08:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5542707_re-from-russian-source-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
5542777,"Re: Updating your bio
","   it was below the banner.... here...
   LAUREN GOODRICH
   Eurasia Analyst
    
    
   Lauren Goodrich is Stratfor's Director of Analysis and Senior Eurasia
   analyst, overseeing research and daily analysis on all matters pertaining
   the world, but also specifically to the Former Soviet states and European
   Union. Ms. Goodrich has lived in numerous countries - including Russia,
   Germany, France, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Belize, Costa Rica, Israel,
   Lebanon and Egypt. She holds an associate's degree in theology from
   Perkins School of Theology in Dallas, Texas; a bachelor's degree in Slavic
   Language and Culture, specializing in the Russian language, from Tomsk
   Polytechnical University and the University of Texas; and degrees in
   religious studies and Russian, Eastern European and Eurasian studies from
   the University of Texas, where she is currently completing a master's
   program.
    
   Before joining Stratfor in 2005, Ms. Goodrich worked for two years as a
   professor at Tomsk Polytechnical University, where she was the first
   American hired on staff. As a teenager, Ms. Goodrich became active with
   the World Peace Foundation, building hospitals, clinics, schools and
   orphanages around the world. In 1996, she organized her own nonprofit
   organization, the Russian Peace Foundation, which has established five
   orphanages in Russia and a school for the deaf in Tomsk. She continues to
   lead and organize medical and dental missions to Russia and other parts of
   the world. 
    
    
   Areas of Expertise:
    
   Russian personalities, political system, oligarchs, businesses and energy
   infrastructure
   The former Soviet Union past and present
   Politics of the Balkans
   European energy politics, companies and infrastructure

   Brian Genchur wrote:

     Haha.  Yeah, but all I got was a picture of the Stratfor Profile
     banner.  Something is not right with this picture....
      
     Brian Genchur
     Public Relations
     STRATFOR
     www.stratfor.com
     PR@stratfor.com
     512-744-4309 - office
      

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

     From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
     Sent: Wednesday, September 10, 2008 6:27 PM
     To: Brian Genchur
     Subject: Re: Updating your bio
     I sent updates... that is what you wanted, right?

     Brian Genchur wrote:

       Eh?
        
       Brian Genchur
       Public Relations
       STRATFOR
       www.stratfor.com
       PR@stratfor.com
       512-744-4309 - office
        

     ----------------------------------------------------------------------

       From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com]
       Sent: Wednesday, September 10, 2008 6:23 PM
       To: Brian Genchur
       Subject: Re: Updating your bio
        
       LAUREN GOODRICH
       Eurasia Analyst
        
        
       Lauren Goodrich is Stratfor's Director of Analysis and Senior Eurasia
       analyst, overseeing research and daily analysis on all matters
       pertaining the world, but also specifically to the Former Soviet
       states and European Union. Ms. Goodrich has lived in numerous
       countries - including Russia, Germany, France, Ireland, the United
       Kingdom, Belize, Costa Rica, Israel, Lebanon and Egypt. She holds an
       associate's degree in theology from Perkins School of Theology in
       Dallas, Texas; a bachelor's degree in Slavic Language and Culture,
       specializing in the Russian language, from Tomsk Polytechnical
       University and the University of Texas; and degrees in religious
       studies and Russian, Eastern European and Eurasian studies from the
       University of Texas, where she is currently completing a master's
       program.
        
       Before joining Stratfor in 2005, Ms. Goodrich worked for two years as
       a professor at Tomsk Polytechnical University, where she was the first
       American hired on staff. As a teenager, Ms. Goodrich became active
       with the World Peace Foundation, building hospitals, clinics, schools
       and orphanages around the world. In 1996, she organized her own
       nonprofit organization, the Russian Peace Foundation, which has
       established five orphanages in Russia and a school for the deaf in
       Tomsk. She continues to lead and organize medical and dental missions
       to Russia and other parts of the world. 
        
        
       Areas of Expertise:
        
       Russian personalities, political system, oligarchs, businesses and
       energy infrastructure
       The former Soviet Union past and present
       Politics of the Balkans
       European energy politics, companies and infrastructure
        

       Brian Genchur wrote:

         Hi Lauren,
          
         I am updating bios for all of our analysts.  When you have time,
         please look over your bio and add any additional information or make
         any changes that you see fit.
          
         Thank you!
          
         Brian Genchur
         Public Relations
         STRATFOR
         www.stratfor.com
         PR@stratfor.com
         512-744-4309 - office
          

       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       Stratfor
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

     --
     Lauren Goodrich
     Director of Analysis
     Senior Eurasia Analyst
     Stratfor
     T: 512.744.4311
     F: 512.744.4334
     lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
     www.stratfor.com

   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-09-11 01:31:50",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5542777_re-updating-your-bio-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","brian.genchur@stratfor.com",""
5543038,"INSIGHT - Russia - conversation about Med's trip
","   CODE: RU101
   PUBLICATION: yes
   ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
   SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of the top within the Kremlin circle, though from
   Surkov's clan.  
   SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
   ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3
   SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren
    
   [source:] Nicolai Platonovich  Patryushev is going on Medvedev's trip.
   [LG:] how do you know this?
   [source:] I unfortunately need to meet with him and learned that he would
   be out this next week.
   [LG:] Interesting. So some FSB threats & muscling will be needed in Latin
   America?
   [source:] I am surprised that Igor Ivanovich is not going instead.
   [LG:] Does Patryushev have any experience in Latin American. I thought he
   worked in Belarus and Eastern Europe for KGB, right?
   [source:] Yes.
   [LG:] Most likely because Sechin was just there and already laid the
   groundwork. This still seems weird to me. Why would Russia publicly take
   FSB chief on the presidential trip? This entire group going to Latin
   America is so unorthodox. Though if Russia is trying to get specific
   messages across to the US I guess why not be blunt like a fucking club to
   the head.  
    
   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-11-20 20:32:53",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5543038_insight-russia-conversation-about-med-s-trip-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","secure@stratfor.com",""
5543048,"Re: INSIGHT - RUSSIA - Kremlin devisions
","   I don't think there is anytihng concrete enough that has changed yet. This
   is mainly just an fyi on who is falling where for the fin crisis.

   Reva Bhalla wrote:

     should we put something short out on this? just a rumblings in the
     kremlin type piece, something to watch?

     Lauren Goodrich wrote:

       not on Putin's grip, but on the overall stability there are some major
       problems still esp with the fin crisis going on.
       Lavrov thought that recognizing would be a ridiculous and silly act...
       which it is.

       Reva Bhalla wrote:

         very interesting. are these divisions deep enough to seriously
         threaten Putin's grip on power? What were Lavrov's reasons for
         opposing the decision to recognize SO and and Abkhazia?

         Lauren Goodrich wrote:

           CODE: RU101
           PUBLICATION: sure
           ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin
           SOURCES RELIABILITY: A
           ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
           SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren

           There is a sense in Russia, more than ever, that it is playing it
           by ear. Divisions that had never really disappeared are
           resurfacing, such as those between liberal technocrats (Kudrin,
           Shuvalov, Dvorkovich) and hard-line Putin supporters like Igor
           Sechin, to whom oligarchs in trouble have been rushing to obtain
           tax exemptions and direct aid.
            
           These divergences reflect an essential and yet often ignored
           reality of the current crisis: the beginnings of a huge
           redistribution of assets. Apparently the Kremlin and the White
           House do not have the same list of people in need of rescue (or to
           let drown). Serious divergences also appeared in mid-august
           concerning Georgia. Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov was
           opposed to the decision to recognize the secessionist provinces of
           South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
           --
           Lauren Goodrich
           Director of Analysis
           Senior Eurasia Analyst
           Stratfor
           T: 512.744.4311
           F: 512.744.4334
           lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
           www.stratfor.com

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       --
       Lauren Goodrich
       Director of Analysis
       Senior Eurasia Analyst
       Stratfor
       T: 512.744.4311
       F: 512.744.4334
       lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
       www.stratfor.com

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   --
   Lauren Goodrich
   Director of Analysis
   Senior Eurasia Analyst
   Stratfor
   T: 512.744.4311
   F: 512.744.4334
   lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
   www.stratfor.com
","2008-11-24 16:15:59",1,"2012-05-10 01:00:00","http://www.wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/5543048_re-insight-russia-kremlin-devisions-.html","goodrich@stratfor.com","","analysts@stratfor.com",""
