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### Viewing cable 05CAIRO5344, EGYPT MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT: MAY-JUNE 2005

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05CAIRO5344 | 2005-07-13 13:11 | 2011-08-24 16:30 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Cairo

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 CAIRO 005344

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/RA, AND EB/IDF
    USAID FOR ANE/MEA MCCLOUD
    USTR FOR SAUMS
    TREASURY FOR MILLS/NUGENT/PETERS
    COMMERCE FOR 4520/ITA/ANESA/TALAAT

    E.O.  12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD EINV ENRG EWWT EG
    SUBJECT: EGYPT MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT: MAY-JUNE 2005

    -------
    Summary
    -------

    ¶1.  In this edition:  More Egyptian companies make it into
    international emerging market stock indices and the GOE
    signs an S&T agreement with the EU.  The Ministry of
    Communication and Information Technology announces a third
    mobile phone license will be issued and minister Tarek Kamel
    visits the U.S.  Orascom Telecom purchases an Italian
    telecom.  President Mubarak inaugurates a new liquid natural
    gas facility, the Ministry of Petroleum announces new oil
    and gas deals as well as new oil discoveries, and Egypt and
    Israel sign an MOU on gas exports.  Air traffic controls go
    on a "go-slow" strike and Suez Canal revenues increase 18%
    over last fiscal year.  End summary.

    --------------------------
    Macroeconomic Developments
    --------------------------

    ¶2.  In mid-May Morgan Stanley International (MSI) announced
    the addition of seven Egyptian companies to its emerging
    markets indices, bring the total number of Egyptian
    companies on MSI indices to seventeen.  MSI increased
    Egypt's weight in its indices, which cover all emerging
    markets, from 0.77% to 0.78%.  The change raises Egypt's
    market capitalization in the MSI indices to $1.22 billion.
    The seven new companies included are EFG-Hermes Holding,
    Egyptian American Bank, Egyptian Financial and Industrial
    Co., Ezz Rebars, Egypt Beni Souef Cement, Olympic Group and
    Sinai Cement.  The companies were chosen based on largest
    private sector ownership, market capitalization and trading
    activity in the Egyptian market.  Other Egyptian companies
    included in the MSI indices include domestic blue chips like
    Commercial International Bank, AlWatany Egyptian Bank,
    Eastern Tobacco, Media Production, EIPICO, Mobinil, Nasr
    City Construction, Misr International Bank, Orascom
    Construction and Orascom Telecom Holding.

    ----------------------
    Science and Technology
    ----------------------

    ¶3.  S&T Conference:  On May 28, PM Nazif opened the First
    National Conference for Scientific Research in Egypt.  About
    4,000 Egyptian scientists and researchers, including
    Egyptian expatriate scientists, and various Cabinet
    ministers attended the two-day event.  The conference
    focused on soliciting feedback from the S&T community on
    development of a new strategy for promoting scientific
    research, services and technology in Egypt.  For the first
    time in recent memory, ministers fielded direct questions
    from working-level Egyptian scientists and listened to their
    opinions on S&T issues.  Minister of Foreign Trade and
    Industry Rashid discussed plans to increase private sector
    funding of R&D projects and Minister of Higher Education and
    Scientific Research Salama noted that his ministry would
    establish a fund to support R&D.

    ¶4.  The conference produced a series of recommendations to
    shape a new national S&T strategy for Egypt.  The most
    significant decision was to increase the GOE budget
    allocation for scientific research by 10-50%.  The increase
    would include salaries and administrative costs for
    scientific institutions.  The conference action plan will be
    published at the end of July.  (Comment:  PM Nazif's
    commitment to increasing the S&T budget and the presence at
    the conference of reform-minded ministers such as Rashid
    indicates that the GOE is serious about reform in the field
    of scientific research.  Private sector involvement will be
    key, however, and the GOE's ability to attract foreign
    investment in S&T will depend on continued commitment to
    macroeconomic reform.  End comment).

    ¶5.  EU-Egypt S&T Agreement:  On June 21, PM Nazif attended
    the signing of a new S&T agreement between Egypt and the EU.
    According to Fawzi El Refaei, President of the Egyptian
    Academy of Scientific Research and Technology, the agreement
    aims to expand S&T cooperation and provides for Euro 11
    million in funding for S&T projects.  The agreement allows
    Egyptian scientists and research institutions to apply for
    funding of specific R&R projects from EU sources.  El Refaei
    indicated that funding from this agreement would be
    channelled into areas of development identified in Egypt's
    new S&T strategy.

    --------------------------------
    Telecommunications and Info Tech
    --------------------------------

    ¶6.  In mid-May, Minister of Communication and Information
    Technology (MCIT) Tarek Kamel announced that the GOE would
    soon issue a license for a third mobile phone operator.  The
    RFP would be issued in 3-4 months and proposals would be
    reviewed by early 2006, with the goal of getting the third
    operator in place by mid-2007.  Kamel indicated that MCIT
    anticipated LE 2.5 billion in licensing fees from the new
    operator.  The coming RFP would be "technology neutral,"
    i.e., either GSM or CDMA.  According to a study by the
    National Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (NTRA),
    Egypt's mobile market growth rate is currently 12%, but is
    expected to reach 25% within five years.

    ¶7.  In late May, the Information Technology Industry
    Development Authority (ITIDA) invited Egyptian and
    international firms to apply for e-signature licenses under
    Law 15 of 2004, which regulates e-signatures.  According to
    ITIDA, use of e-signature technology will encourage new
    investment in e-commerce and e-business projects and
    facilitate access to global e-business sectors.  Details of
    the licensing requirements can be found at
    www.itida.gov.eg/csp.

    ¶8.  Also in late May, Orascom Telecom (OT) announced the
    $130 million sale of its controlling stake in Libertis, a
    GSM company in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and
    Libertis' operator Oasis Telecom.  Also in late May, Naguib
    Sawiris, CEO of OT, announced the purchase of Wind, the
    telecom subsidiary of Italian conglomerate Enel, by the
    newly established "Weather Investments."  Sawiris owns 73.9%
    of Weather Investments and Enel owns the remaining shares.
    OT plans to eventually transfer 51% of its shares to Weather
    Investments.  The total cost of the purchase was Euro 17.2
    billion.

    ¶9.  MCIT Minister Kamel made his first official visit to the
    U.S. June 18-28.  The delegation included the Chairman of
    NTRA, the President of Telecom Egypt and representatives
    from approximately 20 Egyptian IT firms.  Kamel held meeting
    with USG officials and on the Hill, and also met with
    Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates and executives from Intel,
    Cisco, and Oracle.  The visit led to establishment of a U.S.-
    Egypt IT consultative council.  Kamel also witnessed the
    signing of several business deals, including a $5 million
    agreement between Egypt's QuickTel and Qualcom to service
    wireless networks in Egypt.  The minister also announced
    that NTRA would soon issue licensing terms for Voice-over
    Internet Protocol (VoIP) service in Egypt.

    ------
    Energy
    ------

    ¶10.  On May 30, President Mubarak inaugurated the liquefied
    natural gas (LNG) plant at the Mediterranean Gas Complex in
    Damietta.  The LNG facility is owned and operated by the
    Spanish Egyptian Gas Company (SEGAS), which is 80% owned by
    Union Fenosa Gas (50% Union Fenosa of Spain and 50% ENI of
    Italy), and 20% owned by Egyptian State Holding Companies.
    The $1.3 billion facility was built by a joint venture of
    Halliburton KBR, JGC Corporation of Japan, and Tecnicas
    Reunidas of Spain.  The output of the facility, 5.5 mt/yr,
    has already been committed for the next 25 years.  The
    Mediterranean Gas Complex near Damietta is a joint
    investment between the Italian AGIP and British Petroleum.

    ¶11.  In mid-June, Petroleum Minister Fahmi announced that
    the GOE had signed 36 new oil and gas exploration agreements
    over the last year for a total investment of $250 million.
    The agreements will result in the drilling of 55 new wells
    in the Western Desert, the Nile Delta, and off the
    Mediterranean coast and Gulf of Suez.  Foreign investors in
    the agreements include British Gas, Malaysian Petronas,
    International Egyptian Oil Company (an Italian subsidiary of
    AGIP) and Apache.  Announcement of the new exploration
    agreements was followed by three new oil discoveries in late
    June.  The largest was at Ras Gharib-Amr, a 50-year-old oil
    field in the Gulf of Suez, 2 km offshore.  The discovery was
    the first at Ras Gharib-Amr in the last 40 years.  The
    second discovery was at El Tamad, approximately 90 km
    northeast of Cairo.  This was the first on-shore oil
    discovery in the northern Nile Delta region.  The third
    discovery was at El Diyur in Egypt's Western Desert.  Total
    reserves from the new discovery were estimated at 70 million
    barrels of crude oil.

    ¶12.  Egypt-Israel Gas Agreement:  On June 30, Fahmi signed
    an MOU with Israeli National Infrastructures Minister
    Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, clearing the way for a long-awaited
    $2.5 billion commercial gas deal between Eastern
    Mediterranean Gas (EMG) and the Israeli state-owned
    Electrical Company (IEC).  While the commercial details
    remain to be determined, EMG will export approximately 25
    billion cubic meters of gas over 15 years from the Egyptian
    port of El Arish to the port of Askalon in Israel.  EMG is
    an Egyptian-registered company 25% owned by Israel's Merhav
    Group.  Egyptian businessman Hussein Salem owns another 65%
    of EMG and the Egyptian Gas Holding Company owns the
    remaining 10%.

    ¶13.  The MOU provides a "political umbrella" for the
    commercial agreement, and commits the GOE to providing gas
    to EMG and the GOI to providing tax exemptions for equipment
    and materials.  Completion of the project is expected to
    take two years.  Announcement of the MOU was coordinated
    with announcement of cooperation between the GOE and the
    Palestinian Authority on gas exports.  Headlines of some
    opposition papers tried to portray the MOU as an attempt to
    appease the USG and deflect pressure for further political
    and democratic reform.

    --------
    Aviation
    --------

    ¶14.  In early May, Egyptian air traffic controllers went on
    a "go-slow" strike, their second in the span of two months,
    to protest the Ministry of Civil Aviation's penalization of
    8 air traffic controllers for delays at Sharm El Sheikh
    airport.  The Association of Egyptian Air Traffic
    Controllers threatened to bring air traffic to a total halt
    if the penalties were not lifted.  Controllers also demanded
    a doubling of salaries over three years, better health
    insurance and better promotion opportunities.  The strike
    ended after Minister of Civil Aviation Shafik promised to
    look into the strikers' demands for better pay and
    conditions.  Aviation officials indicated that the
    controllers conducted the go-slow in line with International
    Civil Aviation Organization standards, but failed to
    announce the go-slow to the airlines in advance.  Unofficial
    reports indicated that losses from the go-slow amounted to
    $31 million.

    ---------------------------------
    Suez Canal and Maritime Transport
    ---------------------------------

    ¶15.  In early May, the Suez Canal Authority indicated that
    revenues from Suez Canal tolls during FY 2004/2005 would
    exceed $3.2 billion, compared to $2.82 billion during FY
    2003/2004.  During the first 9 months of FY 2004/2005 (July
    2004- March 2005), revenues increased by $369 million to
    $2.446 million, up 18% from the previous year.  A recent
    study by the Ministry of Transportation indicated that total
    revenue from port facilities, excluding customs, duties and
    taxes, increased in 2004 by 25% to L.E. 2.24 billion.

    -------------------
    Economic Statistics
    -------------------

    ¶16.

    Exchange Rate:
                                  (05/31/05)        (06/30/05)
    Egyptian Pounds/$             Buying Selling Buying Selling
    Avg. Bank/Bureau Rate         578.79 581.22  578.24 580.84

    Capital Market:
                                   (05/31/05)       (06/30/05)
    Capital Markets Authority Index 1644             1789
    Hermes Financial Index          36344            41772
    EFG Index                       19599            22692

    Interest Rates:
    (percent, monthly comparison)

    Interbank Overnight              9.49            9.55
    T-bills (182 days)               9.88            8.39
    T-Bond (maturing 01/06)          4.15            4.15
    T-Bond (maturing 04/09)          5.50            5.50

    Foreign Reserves:
    (US $ billion, official gov't figures)

     (04/2005)      (05/2005)
      18.470    18.712

`