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### Viewing cable 04FRANKFURT8337, European Commission Proposes Changes to Stability

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04FRANKFURT8337 | 2004-09-27 08:17 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Consulate Frankfurt

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    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 FRANKFURT 008337

    SIPDIS

    SENSATIVE

    STATE FOR EUR PDAS RIES, EB, EUR/AGS, AND EUR/ERA
    STATE PASS FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD
    STATE PASS NSC
    TREASURY FOR DAS LEE
    TREASURY ALSO FOR ICN COX, HALL
    PARIS ALSO FOR OECD
    TREASURY FOR OCC RUTLEDGE, MCMAHON

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EFIN EUN
    SUBJECT: European Commission Proposes Changes to Stability
    Pact:  Rules and Reality

    T-IA-F-04-008

    This cable is sensitive but unclassified.  Not/not for
    Internet distribution.

    ¶1.   (SBU) Summary:  On September 3 the European Commission
      initiated a discussion of possible changes to the Stability
      and Growth Pact (SGP).  The Commission is seeking to find a
      balance between flexibility that accommodates individual
      country circumstances and strict rules that instill
      necessary budget discipline.  The initial reaction of
      Finance Ministers was to welcome an examination of ways to
      strengthen the SGP, but to rule out any changes to the
      Treaty while keeping any regulatory changes to an absolute
      minimum.  The discussion will continue at the November
      Ecofin Council session. Any final outcome is unlikely until
      the first half of next year.

    ¶2.   (SBU) On balance the Commission's suggestions are
      useful and arguably could be adopted   without changes to
      the regulations. Agreeing to changes in implementation of
      the SGP could provide the Commission a way out of the dead
      end in which it has found itself since last November when
      its interpretation of the rules differed from that of
      Council's.   More rules, however, would not guarantee better
      implementation of the SGP.  Key decisions on excessive
      deficit procedures (EDP) still will be political and taken
      by the Council.  In a match up of rules versus reality,
      reality wins.  End Summary.

    Commission Launches Debate
    --------------------------

    ¶3.   (SBU) On September 3 the European Commission issued a
      "Communication" that commenced a debate on possible changes
      to the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP).  The Pact is
      composed of provisions from the EU Treaty, Council
      Regulations, and a Council Resolution.  The Commission
      states that tensions have accumulated in the application of
      the SGP leading to a "loss of credibility and ownership and
      institutional uncertainty."

    ¶4.   (SBU) The Commission's proposals are for a
      "strengthened" SGP and a Code of Conduct containing specific
      economic-analytical tools to allow consistency in budgetary
      surveillance.  According to a senior Commission official,
      the Commission is seeking to strike a balance between rules
      that can take into account each country's unique economic
      circumstances and those that are sufficiently strict to
      instill necessary budgetary discipline. Another theme,
      according to this official, is to place more emphasis on
      "preventative" measures, e.g. taking steps to reduce
      deficits in good economic times, rather than only
      concentrating on "corrective' measures.

    Key Elements of Commission Proposals
    ------------------------------------

    ¶5.   (SBU) The Commission proposes to (a) refocus the SGP;
      (b) better coordinate budgetary policies; and (c) improve
      enforcement.

    ¶6.   (SBU) With respect to refocusing the SGP the Commission
      suggests:

               i.   Placing more focus on government debt and
                sustainability.  The Commission suggests making the debt
                criterion of the Treaty operational (e.g. initiate an
                "excessive debt procedure" when the debt exceeds the 60%
                reference value) and clarifying the basis on which to ass
                a "satisfactory pace" of debt reduction, including an
                assessment of debt sustainability that takes into account
                pensions, contingent liabilities, and assets.
    ii.  Allowing for more country-specific circumstances in
    defining the medium-term deficit objective of "close to
    balance or in surplus."  A country with a higher debt level,
    for example, would be subject to a more stringent
    interpretation of the notion of "close to zero or in
    surplus" over the medium-term than a country with a lower
    debt level.
    iii. Considering economic circumstances and developments in
    implementation of the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP).
    One option would be to redefine the "exceptional
    circumstances" clause that can be invoked to avoid an EDP by
    adding the notion of "prolonged economic downturn" as such
    an "exceptional circumstance."  Another approach would be to
    allow country-specific deadlines for action rather than the
    standard ten months after the date new budget data is
    released, thereby seeking to better reflect a country's
    cyclical development and debt level.
    iv.  Ensuring earlier actions to correct inadequate
    budgetary developments.  Under this approach the Commission
    would issue early warnings directly to member states when
    deficits are close to 3% (a point on which Ministers have
    agreed in the Constitutional Treaty) but also in good times
    if a government is not moving close to balance or surplus.
    The Commission also could issue recommendations under the
    Broad Economic Policy Guidelines (BEPG).

    ¶7.   (SBU) On coordination budgetary policies, the
      Commission would like to reinforce the link between BEPG,
      budget programs submitted under the SGP and national
      budgetary processes.  BEPG address recommendations to member
      states on structural policies, such as health care and
      pension systems and labor and capital markets.  The
      Commission believes that economic and budgetary policies
      need to set the "right priorities toward economic reforms,
      innovation, competitiveness and strengthening of private
      investment and consumption, thereby contributing toward
      achieving the economic objectives of the Lisbon strategy."

    ¶8.   (SBU) The Commission suggests that Stability and
      Convergence Programs should define the medium-term budget
      strategy at the beginning of a country's budget cycle.  At
      present all Stability and Convergence programs are submitted
      to the Commission in early December, regardless of a
      country's own budget cycle. Synchronizing national and EU
      level budget exercises would allow a member state to reflect
      the   Commission's and Council's assessments of its proposed
      national budget as well as the BEPG's in its national
      deliberations.  Such sequencing would increase the
      interaction between European and national levels to include
      national parliaments in the debate.

    ¶9.   (SBU) With respect to enforcement, the Commission
      suggests improving the quality, timeliness and reliability
      of fiscal statistics, the effectiveness of peer pressure
      (naming, shaming and blaming), and greater transparency and
      accountability on budgetary policies (including reports to
      the European Parliament and greater involvement of national
      parliaments).  These would complement a change already
      agreed to by Ministers in the context of the Constitutional
      Treaty, namely that the Commission be authorized to send
      early warnings directly to countries without securing
      Ecofin's approval.

    Finance Minister's Take
    -----------------------

    ¶10.  (SBU) At their informal meeting in the Netherlands on
      September 10, EU Finance Ministers issued a short statement
      reflecting on the Commission's ideas.  The thrust of these
      comments is toward strengthening, or at least improving the
      implementation of, the SGP.  Ministers ruled out changing
      the Treaty (i.e. 3% deficit and 60% debt reference values to
      remain) and want only minimum changes to the regulations,
      "if necessary at all."  Specifically, the Ministers asked
      the Economic and Finance Committee to work out elements on
      the following issues:

         ¶1.   Strengthening the preventative arm of the SGP by having
           budget discipline in good times to gradually achieve
           budgetary surpluses, practicing peer pressure, and having
           transparent budget figures and growth assumptions.
    ¶2.   Enhancing the focus on debt and its sustainability by
    having debt over the reference value diminish at a
    satisfactory pace, taking into account the future costs of
    aging and implications of pension reforms.
    ¶3.   Drawing a distinction between measures taken and
    economic forecasting errors when assessing compliance with
    Council decisions; and
    ¶4.   Having budgetary policies set the right priorities
    towards structural reforms, innovation, and competitiveness
    in support of the Lisbon agenda to promote economic growth
    and employment creation.

    Some Views: To Modify or Not to Modify
    --------------------------------------

    ¶11.  (SBU) A German Finance Ministry official noted that the
      informal Ecofin seemed to concentrate on areas that would
      strengthen the rules, an outcome he suspected was driven by
      the Dutch Presidency that has taken a strict line in
      implementing the SGP.  A Commission official explained that
      the Ministers' statement reflects areas on which there was
      consensus.  This official suspects that some member states
      would support more flexibility.  According to a senior
      Bundesbank official, some of the new member states' central
      bankers and finance ministers are none too pleased with
      contemplated changes to the rules that they have been
      required to use in drawing up their medium-term budget
      programs.

    ¶12.  (SBU) Another German official speculated that the
      Economic and Finance Committee would not suggest any changes
      to the regulations.  This position was supported strongly by
      European Central Bank President Trichet at his September 22
      hearing before the European Parliament.   A senior
      Bundesbank official, however, was not sanguine that this
      position would hold.  The Dutch, Austrians and Nordics
      continue to toe the line against changes, but Germany, once
      the leader of this pack, is no more, in his view.

    ¶13.  (SBU) Three points in the Commission's proposals would
      require a change in regulations according to a Commission
      official.  These would be to (a) modify the definition of
      "exceptional circumstances;" (b) provide for another
      timetable for sanctions to be taken rather than the 10
      months from the date that new budget data is released; and
      (c) modify the timetable to correct the excessive deficit to
      reflect a country's circumstance rather than requiring it be
      done "a year after its identification."  A senior Luxembourg
      Finance Ministry official believed that some of these
      changes would be necessary to bring more clarity in how the
      SGP is being implemented.  In his view, these neither
      strengthen the SGP nor weaken it.

    ¶14.  (SBU) A French Finance Ministry official generally
      supported the main ideas of the Commission's paper, but
      cautioned that the details could prove to be tricky.  Tying
      national budget cycles to the EU-level Stability Programs or
      giving more weight to the BEPG are, in his view, unlikely.

    Next Steps
    ----------

    ¶15.  (SBU) The Economic and Finance Committee will flesh out
      Ministers' ideas with a view to having a first discussion at
      the November Ecofin.  European Commission staff expect
      discussions to roll into the next year.  After the Ecofin
      Council has concluded its deliberations, the Commission must
      present recommendations to the Council for approval.  A
      Senior Luxembourg Finance Ministry official thought wrapping
      up the exercise in the first half of next year would be
      "fortunate."  He hopes they can conclude the work during the
      Luxembourg Presidency.

    Observations
    ------------
    ¶16.  (SBU) According to a senior German official, the
      College of the European Commission agreed to taking the
      Council to the European Court of Justice over the excessive
      deficit cases of Germany and France provided that it also
      developed ideas for improving implementation of the SGP.
      This has positioned the Commission to devise new approaches
      to implementing the SGP.  In doing so, it could provide a
      way out of the dead end it has found itself by sticking to a
      recommendation that the Council could not adopt last
      November (see septel).  While this commitment was taken
      while Commissioner Solbes was in charge of DG Economics and
      Finance, the new Commissioner Alumina is more "politically
      savvy," according to this German official, and wants to find
      a compromise that member states can live with.  The
      Commission has put its "cards on the table."

    ¶17.  (SBU) We would agree with the Commission staff
      observation that most of their suggestions and those of the
      Finance Ministers could be implemented without any changes
      in the regulations.  The Commission staff already examines
      cyclically adjusted balances as part of their overall
      assessment of a country's fiscal position.  We would also
      argue that the "special circumstances" clause can be
      interpreted to make allowances for the timing of the
      adjustment path to correct the deficit.  The German Finance
      Ministry has argued that the unforeseen, prolonged economic
      slow done is such a "special circumstance."  On the other
      hand, expanding the definition of "exceptional
      circumstances" would allow countries to avoid any EDP and
      more intense budget scrutiny. This would not be helpful.

    ¶18.  (SBU) Putting more focus on debt would be a welcomed
      change.  After all, financing costs are driven, in part, by
      the stock of debt and its dynamics rather than the deficit
      of a single year.  Seven of the Euro 12 (or nine of the EU
      25) are over the 60% limit, three of the 12 are close to the
      100% level (Italy, Greece and Belgium).  The 60% limit was
      established in the 1990's when that was the average stock of
      debt for the prospective euro area.  That number has gone up
      to 70% in 2003.  In its latest World Economic Outlook, the
      International Monetary Fund confirms that the EU has
      demonstrated an "unsustainable deficit bias" since the
      creation of the European Monetary Union.

    ¶19.  (SBU) Subjecting member states to peer review when
      budgets are in better shape also makes sense.  The authors
      of the IMF report cited above note that a "key priority in
      the reform of the SGP should be to enforce greater fiscal
      restraint in good times" in light of the costs of aging
      populations that loom larger and closer.  Deutsche Bank
      Research has calculated that a one percentage point increase
      in EU government deficits raises 10 year government bond
      yields by 36 percentage points.  Rather than spending money
      on deficit financing it might be better be spent easing
      structural reforms or cutting taxes.

    ¶20.  (SBU) Better forecasts and statistics (as in the case
      of Portugal and Greece) are very important.  Uncritically
      accepting national budget forecasts is nice, but unhelpful
      in the budget surveillance process.  A little tough love
      would be better.

    ¶21.  (SBU) Providing better consistency between budget
      proposals and structural reforms, innovation and competition
      covered in the Broad Economic Policy Guidelines make sense.
      The SGP should not be just a numbers game, but a discussion
      of economic policies designed to promote growth and
      employment.  Deficit spending does not mean the money is
      spent wisely.  Promoting such consistency would bring EU
      level macro efforts into the national arena, the purview of
      member states - a move many member states are likely to
      resist.

    ¶22.    (SBU) One issue confronting the Commission is whether
      the rules should be drafted to reflect economic reality or
      whether it is implementation that is to reflect the reality.
      Drafting more precise rules will not solve the issue of
      political will.  That, or the absence thereof, still will
      reside with the Council.

    ¶23.  (U)This cable coordinated with Embassies Berlin,
      Luxembourg, Paris, The Hague and USEU Brussels.

    ¶24.  (U)POC: James Wallar, Treasury Representative, e-mail
      wallarjg2@state.gov; tel. 49-(69)-7535-2431, fax 49-(69)-
      7535-2238

    Bodde

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