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### Viewing cable 04PANAMA651, MORE SECRETS, A DEBATE, AND ANOTHER POLL SHOWS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04PANAMA651 | 2004-03-19 19:39 | 2011-05-29 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Panama

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PANAMA 000651

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    DEPT. FOR WHA/CEN/BRIGHAM AND USOAS/SNEFF

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PM POLITICS FOREIGN POLICY
    SUBJECT: MORE SECRETS, A DEBATE, AND ANOTHER POLL SHOWS
    TORRIJOS WITH A BIG LEAD. PANAMA ELECTION COUNTDOWN #7: 6
    WEEKS TO GO

    REF: A. PANAMA 0613
         ¶B. PANAMA 0564
         ¶C. PANAMA 0301

    SUMMARY/COMMENT: REMARKABLY UNREMARKABLE
    ----------------------------------------
    ¶1. (SBU) Local press meticulously covered former President
    Ernesto Perez Balladares' unexpected disclosure of
    discretionary expenditures during his presidency (1994-99),
    tied to the ongoing battle between Electoral Prosecutor
    Gerardo Solis and President Moscoso. (Reftels A & B).  A
    March 16 presidential debate focused on the four candidates'
    plans to address unemployment, corruption, the administration
    of justice, and Panama's ailing Social Security Fund, but
    broke no new ground.  Diplomatic community representatives
    are skeptical about OAS election observation plans, citing
    Panamanians' ambivalence about the election and solid track
    record for peaceful balloting.   Finally, La Prensa published
    an opinion poll on March 15 showing Martin Torrijos (PRD)
    still far ahead with 47%, followed by Guillermo Endara
    (Solidarity) at 29.5%, Jose Miguel Aleman (PA) creeping up
    and staying out of single digits at 13%, and Ricardo
    Martinelli at 7.5%.  According to PolOffs' discussions with a
    wide range of Panamanians and diplomats, neither group
    believes that the candidates have addressed the country's
    most pressing problems in a serious way.  In a country where
    politics is a national sport, none of the candidates has
    touched a cord among the electorate. End Summary/Comment.

    ANOTHER INSTALLMENT OF THE NUMBERS GAME
    ---------------------------------------
    ¶2. (SBU) Panamanians do not appear to be avidly following the
    ongoing electoral campaign.  On March 15, La Prensa published
    an opinion poll showing Martin Torrijos (PRD) at 47%,
    Guillermo Endara (Solidarity) at 29.5%, Jose Miguel Aleman
    (PA) at 13%, and Ricardo Martinelli at 7.5%.  Respondents are
    not aware either of the professional background or
    vice-presidential running mates of the presidential candidate
    for whom they plan to vote.  Endara's background was "best"
    known, but 59.2% of respondents who stated they intend to
    vote for him were unable to identify what he studied in the
    University.  The figures were grimmer for Aleman (77%),
    Martinelli (75.6%), and Torrijos (74.7%).  Corresponding
    figures for those unable to name the running mates of the
    candidate for whom they intend to vote were: Torrijos
    (56.9%), Endara (59.6), Aleman (71.8%) and Martinelli
    (83.3%).  In the unfavorable category, Aleman continues as
    the candidate for whom the most Panamanians say they would
    definitely not vote, with 39.5% of respondents dismissing his
    candidacy.

    I SHOWED YOU MY CARDS. WHAT ABOUT YOURS?
    ----------------------------------------
    ¶3. (SBU) Former President Ernesto Perez Balladares (EPB)
    jumped into the press circus over President Moscoso's refusal
    to reveal discretionary expenditures to Electoral Prosecutor
    Gerardo Solis.  EPB's records of discretionary expenditures
    during his Presidency appeared on the front page of the El
    Panama America newspaper March 16.  The March 17 El Panama
    America detailed EPB's expenditures, including payments to
    former President and current Solidarity Party Candidate
    Guillermo Endara.  Embassy will research those payments and
    report any substantive findings septel.  Noting correctly
    that EPB had not provided complete records, an angry Moscoso
    sarcastically told a television reporter that she would
    gladly do the same, but only five years after leaving office.
     Ironically, before EPB appointed him as Electoral
    Prosecutor, Gerardo Solis was involved in managing the
    Presidency's discretionary funds.

    SLOPPY DEBATE MANAGEMENT
    ------------------------
    ¶4. (SBU) A consortium of print and television media
    collaborated with the Panamanian Foundation for Ethics and
    Civism to produce and broadcast the second of three debates
    between Panama's four presidential candidates.  A panel of
    four print and television journalists sitting at a small
    conference table queried the candidates on what they would do
    to address unemployment, corruption, the administration of
    justice, and Panama's ailing Social Security Fund.
    Unfortunately, debate moderator Father Manuel Santiago
    Blanquer failed to control the interaction, allowing
    candidates' outbursts to become mini-monologues.  Nor did
    Blanquer accurately monitor the 90-second time allotment for
    each candidate, erring most often in Martin Torrijos' favor
    and twice interrupting Jose Miguel Aleman when he was
    entitled to more time.

    MORE SLAMS THAN PROPOSALS
    -------------------------
    ¶5. (SBU) Candidates failed to offer concrete proposals about
    what they would do if elected, offering only vague promises
    about how they would reduce unemployment, the most common
    concern among Panamanians.  All four candidates agreed that
    developing the tourism sector would help combat unemployment.
     While Martinelli recommended reforming the Labor Code, thus
    spurring micro-entrepreneurs to hire new employees, Aleman
    said the key was education, Torrijos focused on training, and
    Endara insisted on reducing corruption to attract
    job-creating foreign investment.  All four candidates waffled
    in response to a follow-up question on whom they would fire
    when they took office, stating only that they would get rid
    of inefficient or unnecessary staff.

    ¶6. (SBU) When the topic switched to means for ensuring the
    judicial branch's integrity and a fair administration of
    justice, Aleman attacked Endara for not reforming the
    constitution during his presidency (1989-94).  Endara
    rejected the claim, pointing out he only respected popular
    will when Panama's voters rejected his constitutional reform
    proposal in a 1992 referendum.   The four candidates all said
    that no one should be above the law and Martinelli brashly
    stated that justice can be bought in Panama.  Torrijos'
    response to both the initial and follow-up questions was to
    criticize the manner in which President Moscoso selected
    Supreme Court Magistrates loyal to her, implying that they
    were obedient to her thereafter.  On previous occasions, all
    four candidates have advocated reforms to de-politicize the
    selection process for Supreme Court Justices.  (NOTE: A
    subsequent poll claimed that Torrijos had "won" the debate,
    although the statistics suggested that opinions broke down
    according to party preferences.  END NOTE.)

    LOOK AT ME! I'M THE MOST TRANSPARENT
    ------------------------------------
    ¶7. (SBU) Having announced his plans during the March 16
    debate, Aleman presented a sworn declaration of his assets to
    the Ombudsman's office on March 18.  Jose Miguel Aleman's
    challenge to his opponents to do the same serves three
    purposes.  First, Aleman's move helps him question the wealth
    of campaign front-runner Martin Torrijos of the Revolutionary
    Democratic Party (PRD).  Second, due to the PRD's alliance
    with the Partido Popular (PP), the declaration is a jab at
    Ombudsman Juan A. Tejada and several of his chief
    lieutenants, all former PP activists, in retaliation for
    their persistent complaints about President Moscoso's lack of
    transparency.  Finally, being more transparent than Moscoso
    is part of Aleman's thus far unsuccessful effort to distance
    himself from her, so Torrijos can no longer accuse him of
    "hiding behind her skirt" as he did during the debate.
    (NOTE: Presidents and cabinet-level Panamanian officials must
    submit such a statement to the Comptroller General upon entry
    and departure from office, but the requirement does not
    extend to candidates. END NOTE.)

    ¶8. (SBU) CD candidate Ricardo Martinelli lists his campaign
    contributors on his website, a pledge he made when he began
    campaigning.  While trying to prove his credibility as
    someone who would fight corruption from the Presidency,
    Martinelli stated during the March 16 debate that corruption
    starts with campaign donors expecting something in exchange
    for their contribution.  Although both other opposition
    candidates have approached the Embassy regarding questionable
    campaign donors, only Martinelli has published a list on the
    internet.  Critics would say that Martinelli has nothing to
    lose by publishing his list of donors as he has little chance
    of winning Panama's May 2 election.  Nonetheless, while not
    enough to put him over the top, Panamanians welcome
    Martinelli's transparency when it comes to campaign
    donations.  Martinelli was also the first candidate to
    formally present an anti-corruption plan to Panama's chapter
    of Transparency International, which Aleman did this week.

    WHY WOULD OAS OBSERVE PANAMA'S ELECTION?
    ----------------------------------------
    ¶9. (SBU) Several diplomatic missions to Panama share this
    Embassy's skepticism about the need for external OAS election
    observers, expecting a free and clean vote.  OAS' Panama
    office contacted foreign diplomatic missions in Panama, as
    well as local IDB and UNDP  offices during the week of March
    8 on behalf of the OAS Unit for the Promotion of Democracy
    (UPD) to request funds (reftel A) and convoke a March 17
    coordination meeting.  UPD proposed a $130K budget for a
    short-term observation mission consisting of 8 OAS experts
    (elections, IT, training, etc.) and 12 foreign observers.
    UPD representatives at the meeting explained that their
    proposed mission would fit a new model, that of extracting
    helpful lessons from Panama's electoral process to apply
    elsewhere.  The breadth and scope of the mission will depend
    on the sum of contributions.  So far, Brazil has contributed
    the only funds in the pot, $10,000.

    ¶10. (SBU) Representatives of several diplomatic missions,
    including Mexico, Japan, and Argentina, all noted that they
    would prefer to observe Panama's elections at the invitation
    of the Electoral Tribunal rather than as part of an official
    OAS delegation.  Diplomatic representatives present at the
    March 17 meeting were not concerned about any
    election-related problems arising in Panama.  For instance,
    though not present at the meeting, the British First
    Secretary for Political Affairs will be on vacation during

    SIPDIS
    the elections.  Officials from the Japanese Embassy contacted
    our Pol Counselor after the meeting to inquire about the
    USG's position on the election, including funding external
    observers.  Pol Counselor responded that Embassy is confident
    that the electoral process will continue without major
    hiccups and it is unlikely that the USG would fund an OAS
    observer mission.

    ¶11. (SBU) Embassy will not join the OAS official observer
    delegation, but plans to send some 26 mission members to
    observe the elections.  We plan to coordinate geographic
    coverage with OAS and other diplomatic missions via an e-mail
    usergroup, checking in with the OAS control center
    periodically on election day for any breaking news.  This
    approach appears to mesh with the plans of other diplomatic
    missions with smaller presences in Panama, whose work as
    observers will be primarily a vote of confidence in the
    Panamanian system.  Furthermore, none of the diplomatic
    representatives at the March 17 meeting welcomed the OAS
    suggestion that Embassies should encourage their citizens
    residing in Panama to observe the May 2 elections.  Between
    the Ombudsman's Office (300) and the Catholic Church's Peace
    and Justice Commission (1200), approximately 1,500
    Panamanians will also volunteer to observe Panama's
    elections, which we believe is adequate coverage.

    WATT

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