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### Viewing cable 03ANKARA6238, SCENESETTER FOR CODEL MCCONNELL VISIT TO TURKEY

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
03ANKARA6238 | 2003-10-03 14:02 | 2011-08-24 16:30 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ankara

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 006238

    SIPDIS

    H-PASS
    SENSITIVE

    STATE PLEASE PASS TO SENATOR MCCONNELL'S STAFF

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON TU IZ
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL MCCONNELL VISIT TO TURKEY

    REF: A) ANKARA 6210 B) STATE 279625

    THIS MESSAGE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE PROTECT
    ACCORDINGLY

    -------
    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1.  Your CODEL arrives in Ankara at a time when Iraq remains
    the focus of the US-Turkish relationship and where Turks are
    seized with two primary Iraq-related issues:  the presence of
    PKK/Kadek terrorists in northern Iraq and whether Turkey will
    contribute troops to the stabilization force in Iraq.   While
    the Turks insist the two issues are not linked, senior GOT
    officials including PM Erdogan have made it clear that
    concrete progress by the US on PKK/Kadek will strengthen the
    GOT's hand in convincing a skeptical populace to support
    contributing troops to Iraq.  On its larger Iraq policy, the
    GOT is trying in the face of some military and public
    opposition to shift its Iraq policy away from one centered on
    northern-Iraq and ethnic (Kurd or Turkmen) issues towards a
    more central Baghdad-oriented policy based primarily on
    stability through trade, humanitarian assistance and
    commercial opportunities for Turkish businesses.  The new
    focus could help re-establish the confident cooperation that
    characterized U.S.-Turkish relations until earlier this year.

    ¶2. The GOT tells us it is committed to finding a
    comprehensive solution on Cyprus, but continues to emphasize
    flaws in the Annan plan and does not have an alternative
    route to a comprehensive settlement. The GOT remains open in
    principle to improving relations with Armenia, but refuses to
    open its border with Armenia and insists that improvement of
    bilateral relations can only after a resolution to the
    Nagorno-Karabakh problem.  Turkey has issued positive
    statements in support of the Middle East Roadmap and a number
    of high-level Israeli officials have visited Ankara recently,
    but the Turkish populace generally sympathizes with the
    Palestinians.  Turkey has supported USG policy objectives in
    Syria and Iran.

    ¶3. The governing Justice and Development (Turkish acronym:
    AK) Party came to power with an overwhelming Parliamentary
    majority in November 2002 and continues to pursue reforms
    geared at gaining EU accession.  However, there is a question
    within Turkey as to whether AK is committed to reform and a
    number of elements within the country continue to oppose AK
    at every turn.  On the economic front, two years of sound
    fiscal/monetary policy and structural reforms, the rapid and
    successful conclusion of the Iraq war, expected US financial
    assistance, and unprecedented IMF support have combined to
    bring down inflation and interest rates, restore modest
    growth, and create some hope that Turkey can work its way out
    from under a high public debt burden.  The government has an
    opportunity in the coming months to win the economy some
    much-needed breathing room, but this will require committed
    implementation of IMF-supported reforms as well as wise
    conduct of foreign policy.  End summary.

    ----
    IRAQ
    ----

    ¶4. There has been a concerted effort on the part of the GOT
    to shift its Iraq policy away from one centered on ethnicity
    (Turkmen and Kurd) and northern Iraq towards a more central,
    Baghdad-oriented policy based primarily on contributing to
    stability through trade, humanitarian assistance and
    commercial opportunities for Turkish businesses.  However,
    GOT efforts have not found much traction with the military,
    the press or the public which remains focused on northern
    Iraq issues.  The Turks have taken a number of concrete steps
    in humanitarian assistance and reconstruction since Secretary
    Powell's April visit to Turkey.  The World Food Program (WFP)
    continues to ship considerable quantities of food through
    Turkey, and Turkey is also the world's biggest supplier (in
    value terms) to WFP.  The GOT also has supported the US
    military's efforts to establish a ground line of
    communications (GLOC) here to re-supply US forces in Iraq.
    Turkey recently facilitated a Turkish company's export of
    electricity to Iraq, continues to support fuel barter deals
    to supply essential energy supplies to the Iraqi people, and
    has offered some commercial/aid deals that Washington and CPA
    are considering.

    ¶5.  The GOT is also considering making a military
    contribution to the stabilization force in Iraq.  The GOT
    tells us it is working to convince the Turkish populace and
    Parliament to support a Turkish role.  Some Turks (including
    President Sezer) argue that further UN action (i.e. another
    mandate) is required.  Others (including FM Gul) believe more
    UN, NATO, or Iraqi involvement in requesting Turkish support
    would convince Turkish public opinion that their support
    would be welcome.  PM Erdogan recently told us that he is
    considering going to Parliament this month to seek broad
    authority to allow the GOT to engage with us to define final
    conditions under which Turkey could send troops to Iraq.

    ¶6. The Turks also remain concerned about the presence of
    PKK/Kadek terrorists in northern Iraq.  Parliament recently
    passed a "re-integration" law allowing non-leadership members
    of the PKK/Kadek to return voluntarily to Turkey.  Results of
    the law have been disappointing so far.  The Turks are
    looking to the USG to implement our commitment to eliminate
    the PKK/Kadek threat from Iraq.  State's Counter Terrorism
    Chief Amb. Black was in Ankara October 2 to discuss PKK/Kadek
    and agreed with the Turks on a plan of action using the full
    range of statecraft tools to eliminate the PKK/Kadek threat.
    The Turks also remain disturbed by what they consider to be
    Kurdish (vice US or Iraqi central authority) control of the
    Iraqi side of the Turkish-Iraq border and a perceived US
    favoritism of Kurds over Turkish interests.  As the US and
    GOT attempt to put behind us hard feelings from a July 4
    incident, where the U.S. arrested Turkish troops believed to
    be working contrary to efforts to create stability, the event
    and the Turks' perception that we mishandled it are likely to
    linger in the background of the relationship.

    ------
    CYPRUS
    ------

    ¶7. The AK Government states that it remains committed to
    finding a solution on Cyprus, both for domestic political
    reasons and its interest in promoting Turkey's EU candidacy.
    Turkey's long support for Denktash, his rejection of the
    Annan plan and supporters in Ankara retard progress towards a
    comprehensive solution.  Much will depend on the government's
    willingness to take on this issue between now and spring
    2004, when Cyprus' EU membership becomes effective.  AK owes
    nothing politically to "TRNC" leader Denktash and is thus
    interested in promoting transparent and fair elections in the
    North this coming December.  December Parliamentary elections
    in northern Cyprus have become a de facto referendum on a
    comprehensive solution, and we continue to encourage the
    Turks to persuade Denktas to allow free and fair elections,
    including international observers.

    -------
    ARMENIA
    -------

    ¶8. The AK government is much less wedded to Azerbaijans's
    ruling Aliyev family than its predecessors.  However,
    continued GOT linkage of normalization of relations with
    Armenia to improvements in Nagorno-Karabakh has retarded
    progress.  AK officials tell us they recognize the potential
    trade and development benefits to Turkey from opening the
    border.  However, AK officials have made it clear, as have
    the MFA and other Turkish officials, that passage of any
    Armenian genocide language, even by only one chamber of
    Congress, will set progress back significantly.

    -----------
    MIDDLE EAST
    -----------

    ¶9.  Turkey prides itself on its good relations with both
    Israelis and Palestinians.  While it supports the
    U.S.-sponsored Road Map, Turkey is leery of getting too far
    ahead of a Turkish populace that generally sympathizes with
    the Palestinian side.  On Syria and Iran, Turkey argues that
    Turkey: 1) lives in a rough neighborhood and has an interest
    in minimizing friction with its neighbors; and 2) shares the
    same values and goals in the Middle East as the U.S.
    (stability, democracy and prosperity).  In this regard,
    Foreign Minister Gul delivered a call for democracy and
    reform in the Islamic world at the June OIC Summit in Tehran.

    ------------------------
    DOMESTIC POLITICAL SCENE
    ------------------------

    ¶10.  The governing AK Party, which came to power with an
    overwhelming Parliamentary majority in November 2002,
    continues to pursue democratic and political reform (para
    12).  Meanwhile, AK's principle challengers -- the opposition
    CHP and the xenophobic Genc Party -- have lost momentum.  AK
    insists it is wedded to democracy and strong relations with
    the EU and US.  However, most people in the Turkish
    establishment question AK's sincerity and remain concerned
    about its religious roots.  There are also questions about
    AK's ability to field an experienced and competent
    bureaucratic team.  Turkey's generals are keen to protect
    their status as Guardians of the (Kemalist) Republic and the
    version of "secularism" that has prevailed in Turkey.  They,
    and much of the established State, see AK as a challenge to
    the founding ideology of Ataturk's Turkey.

    ¶11.  The AK Government handled the run-up to Operation Iraqi
    Freedom badly and has not shown leadership in the debate
    about whether Turkey should participate in a stabilization
    force for Iraq.  Apart from its Iraq policy, the government
    has gained better footing since PM Erdogan took over in March
    ¶2003.  The party's October 12 convention will provide further
    indications whether Erdogan can or wants to bring coherence
    to the party and the government.

    ------------------------
    POLITICAL REFORM PROCESS
    ------------------------

    ¶12.  In the first eleven months in power, the AK Government
    has passed a series of democratization and political reforms
    in the context of EU harmonization.  In doing so, Turkey is
    garnering praise from the EU, which should decide by Dec.
    2004 whether to begin formal accession talks with Turkey.
    The reform packages expand freedom of expression including
    mother tongue (i.e. Kurdish language) rights, crack down on
    torture, and raise the relative authority of elected
    civilians vis-a-vis the military.  There are questions,
    however, whether the AK government will implement these
    reforms rapidly, particularly given the resistance from those
    in the judiciary, military and other elements of the State
    which are content with the status quo and suspicious of AK,
    the EU and the US.  The AK Government has also launched an
    anti-corruption drive that appears far more comprehensive
    than any conducted by previous governments.  Nevertheless,
    many Turks wonder how far AK will take its anti-corruption
    drive, including against allegations of corruption in the
    military and corruption within AK itself.

    -----------
    THE ECONOMY
    -----------

    ¶13.  Two years of sound fiscal/monetary policy and structural
    reforms, the rapid and successful conclusion of the Iraq war,
    expected U.S. financial assistance, and unprecedented IMF
    support have combined to bring down inflation and interest
    rates, restore modest growth, and create some hope that
    Turkey can work its way out from under a high public debt
    burden.  The Turkish Government has an opportunity, between
    now and the end of the year, to build on this momentum and
    thus push the economy away from the financial precipice on
    which it has been perched for the past three years.  This
    will require the government, which so far has implemented the
    IMF recovery program with muted enthusiasm, to complete the
    next IMF review rapidly, proceed with scheduled
    privatizations, win a positive EU report in October, and
    improve the environment for foreign direct investment.
    Failure to take advantage of this opportunity will not
    necessarily mean another crisis, but will leave the economy
    extremely vulnerable to external or internal shocks and
    undermine the potential for prosperity.  In late September,
    the US and Turkey signed an agreement under which the USG
    will provide $8.5 billion on low-interest loans to support
    Turkey's economic reform efforts.  Money under the agreement
    could begin flowing as early as late October.

    -------------
    CHILD CUSTODY
    -------------

    ¶14.  Turkey has been a signatory to the Hague Convention
    since August 2000. Since that time, we are unaware of any
    children being returned to any country without the agreement
    of the abducting parent.  There are systemic problems:  1)
    Courts meet for 10 minutes monthly on an individual case and
    do not focus on Hague issues; 2) judges do not understand the
    Hague Convention requirement and rule on custody rather than
    Hague issues, thereby requiring a lengthy appeal process; 3)
    the legal process lasts between 2-3 years total; and 4) the
    Ministry of Interior does not focus resources on finding the
    abducted child and the parent.  The US currently has four
    applications pending, each for return of one child to the US.
     In one case the child has now been in Turkey over a year due
    to the slow court process and the judge used that delay to
    rule the child should stay in Turkey.  In another case, the
    Government of Turkey has been unable to locate a child
    abducted to Turkey in October 2002.  Due to physical abuse by
    the abducting father, the Turkish court ordered the child
    returned to the mother immediately.  The Interior Ministry
    places a low priority on these types of cases and has been
    unable to locate the child.

    -------------
    TURKISH MEDIA
    -------------

    ¶15.  Turkey has a lively and colorful media scene.  Reporting
    often includes absolute fantasy passed as fact.  Despite the
    large number of newspapers, however, readership is not as
    broad and deep as might be expected.  Newspapers are
    influential in major cities but not far beyond.  Most Turks
    get their news from television. Except for government-owned
    TRT television, all television stations in Turkey, like the
    print media, are owned by either individual businessmen or
    conglomerates. The press will be interested in your visit and
    seek comments at a number of venues.
    EDELMAN

`