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### Viewing cable 03ANKARA5105, SCENESETTER FOR CODEL LUGAR'S VISIT TO TURKEY

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
03ANKARA5105 | 2003-08-12 12:00 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ankara

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ANKARA 005105

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    DEPARTMENT FOR H

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON TU
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL LUGAR'S VISIT TO TURKEY

    THIS MESSAGE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE PROTECT
    ACCORDINGLY

    -------
    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1. (SBU) Your CODEL arrives in Ankara at a time when Turkey
    is considering increasing its cooperation in reconstruction
    and stabilization efforts in Iraq.  The GOT is shifting its
    Iraq policy away from one centered on northern-Iraq and
    ethnic (Kurd or Turkmen) issues towards a more central
    Baghdad-oriented policy based primarily on stability through
    trade, humanitarian assistance and commercial opportunities
    for Turkish businesses. The new focus will help re-establish
    the confident cooperation that characterized U.S.-Turkish
    relations until earlier this year. Turkey has become an
    important source of and conduit for UN and U.S.-supplied aid
    to Iraq, and the GOT is considering contributing to the
    military stabilization force in Iraq. High-ranking Turkish
    officials met August 5 and decided to flesh out the possible
    risks and scope of a Turkish contribution to the Iraq
    Stabilization Force. The governing Justice and Development
    (Turkish acronym: AK) Party, which came to power with an
    overwhelming Parliamentary majority, is in the midst of a
    successful stretch.  It has pursued reforms geared at gaining
    EU accession. In continuing dialogue with the U.S., the GOT
    tells us it is committed to finding a solution on Cyprus and
    is open to improving relations with Armenia. However, the GOT
    continues to emphasize flaws in the Annan plan and does not
    have an alternative route to a comprehensive settlement plan.
    On Armenia, each side wants the other to move first and
    Nagorno-Karabakh is a continuing issue. Turkey has issued
    positive statements in support of the Middle East Roadmap and
    a number of high-level Israeli officials have visited Ankara
    recently, but the Turkish populace generally sympathizes with
    the Palestinians.  Despite its policy of good neighborliness,
    Turkey has supported USG policy objectives in Syria and Iran.
    Two years of sound fiscal/monetary policy and structural
    reforms, the rapid and successful conclusion of the Iraq war,
    expected U.S. financial assistance, and unprecedented IMF
    support have combined to bring down inflation and interest
    rates, restore modest growth, and create some hope that
    Turkey can work its way out from under a high public debt
    burden.  The government has an opportunity in the coming
    months to win the economy some much-needed breathing room,
    but this will require committed implementation of
    IMF-supported reforms as well as wise conduct of foreign
    policy.  End summary.

    ----
    IRAQ
    ----

    ¶2. (SBU) There has been a concerted effort on the part of the
    GOT to shift its Iraq policy away from one centered on
    ethnicity (Turkmen and Kurd) and northern-Iraq towards a more
    central Baghdad-oriented policy based primarily on
    contributing to stability through trade, humanitarian
    assistance and commercial opportunities for Turkish
    businesses.  The Turks have taken a number of concrete steps
    in humanitarian assistance and reconstruction since Secretary
    Powell,s April visit to Turkey. The World Food Program
    continues to ship considerable quantities of food through
    Turkey, and Turkey is also the world's biggest supplier (in
    value terms) to WFP.  The GOT also has supported the US
    military's efforts to establish a ground line of
    communications here to re-supply US forces in Iraq.  Turkey
    recently allowed an energy barter arrangement with Iraq to go
    forward that will help coalition authorities to supply
    essential energy supplies to the Iraqi people, and has
    offered several commercial/aid deals that Washington has
    welcomed.

    ¶3. (SBU) The GOT is also considering making a significant
    contribution to the stabilization force in Iraq. There are
    indications that the GOT is working to convince the Turkish
    populace and Parliament (a majority of which are opposed to
    the idea) to support a Turkish role.  Some Turks -- including
    President Sezer -- argue that further UN action (i.e. another
    mandate) is required. Others (including FM Gul) believe more
    UN, NATO, or Iraqi involvement in requesting Turkish support
    would convince Turkish public opinion that their support
    would be welcome. The Turks also remain concerned about the
    presence of PKK/Kadek terrorists in northern Iraq.
    Parliament recently passed a "re-integration" law allowing
    non-leadership members of the PKK/Kadek to return voluntarily
    to Turkey, and the Turks are looking to the USG to implement
    our commitment to neutralize the PKK/Kadek threat from Iraq.
    The Turks also remain disturbed by what they consider to be
    Kurdish (vice US or Iraqi central authority) control of the
    Iraqi side of the Turkish-Iraq border.  While the two
    governments attempt to move past the July 4 incident, where
    the U.S. arrested Turkish troops believed to be working
    contrary to efforts to create stability, the event and the
    Turks' perception of our mishandling of it are likely to
    linger in the Turks' perceptions of their relationship with
    the U.S.

    ------------------------
    DOMESTIC POLITICAL SCENE
    ------------------------

    ¶4. (SBU) The governing AK Party, which came to power with an
    overwhelming Parliamentary majority, is in the midst of a
    successful stretch.  AK has pursued democratic and political
    reform (para 6). Meanwhile, AK's principle challengers -- the
    opposition CHP and the xenophobic Genc Party of Motorola
    deadbeat Cem Uzan -- are floundering. Questions about AK
    usually focus on its ultimate social, political, and economic
    intentions domestically or direction internationally
    (although they profess a commitment to relations with the
    U.S. and EU).  Turkey's generals are keen to protect their
    status as Guardians of the (Kemalist) Republic, and thus the
    version of "secularism" they espouse.  They, and much of the
    established State, see AK as a challenge to the founding
    ideology of Ataturk's Turkey. There are also questions about
    AK's ability to field an experienced and consistently
    competent administrative cadre.  Formed in 2001, the party is
    still experiencing growing pains; the AK Government went
    through a rough patch during the run-up to the Iraq war but
    seems to have found its footing since Erdogan was established
    as Prime Minister in March.  The party's convention this fall
    will provide further indications as to Prime Minister and AK
    Chairman Erdogan's ability to develop further the party's
    cohesion and vision.

    -----------
    THE ECONOMY
    -----------

    ¶5. (SBU) Two years of sound fiscal/monetary policy and
    structural reforms, the rapid and successful conclusion of
    the Iraq war, expected U.S. financial assistance, and
    unprecedented IMF support have combined to bring down
    inflation and interest rates, restore modest growth, and
    create some hope that Turkey can work its way out from under
    a high public debt burden.  The Turkish Government has an
    opportunity, between now and the end of the year, to build on
    this momentum and thus push the economy away from the
    financial precipice on which it has been perched for the past
    three years.  This will require the government, which so far
    has implemented the IMF recovery program with muted
    enthusiasm, to complete the next IMF review rapidly, proceed
    with scheduled privatizations, win a positive EU report in
    October, and avoid walking into a crisis with the Iraqi
    stabilization force issue.  Failure to take advantage of this
    opportunity will not necessarily mean another crisis, but
    will leave the economy extremely vulnerable to external or
    internal shocks and undermine the potential for prosperity.

    ------------------------
    POLITICAL REFORM PROCESS
    ------------------------

    ¶6. (SBU) In the first nine months in power, the AK Government
    has passed a series of democratization and political reforms
    in the context of EU harmonization. In doing so, Turkey is
    garnering praise from the EU, which should decide by Dec.
    2004 whether to begin formal accession talks with Turkey.
    The reform packages expand freedom of expression including
    mother tongue (i.e. Kurdish language) rights, increase
    penalties for perpetrators of torture, and raise the relative
    authority of elected civilians vis-a-vis the military. The AK
    Government has also launched an anti-corruption drive that
    appears far more comprehensive than any conducted by previous
    governments.  Nevertheless, there are a number of circles
    within Turkey who question AK's commitment to comprehensive
    reform, particularly regarding corruption allegations against
    the party itself.

    ------
    CYPRUS
    ------

    ¶7. (SBU) The AK Government states that it remains committed
    to finding a solution on Cyprus, both for domestic political
    reasons and its interest in promoting Turkey's EU candidacy.
    Turkey's long support for Denktash, his rejection of the
    Annan plan and supporters in Ankara retard progress towards a
    comprehensive solution. Much will depend on the government's
    willingness to take on this issue between now and spring
    2004, when Cyprus' EU membership becomes effective.  AK owes
    nothing politically to "TRNC" leader Denktash and is thus
    interested in promoting transparent and fair elections in the
    North this coming December.

    -------
    ARMENIA
    -------

    ¶8. (SBU) The AK government is much less wedded to Aliyev and
    tying improvement of relations with Armenia to settlement of
    Nagorno-Karabakh, but remains under sniper fire from
    entrenched anti-Armenian interests.  AK officials tell us
    they recognize the trade and development benefits to Turkey
    from opening the border.  However, AK officials have made it
    clear, as have the MFA and other Turkish officials, that
    passage of any Armenian genocide language, even by only one
    chamber of Congress, will set progress back significantly.

    -----------
    MIDDLE EAST
    -----------

    ¶9. (SBU) Turkey prides itself on its good relations with both
    Israelis and Palestinians.  While it supports the
    U.S.-sponsored Road Map, Turkey is leery of getting too far
    ahead of a Turkish populace that generally sympathizes with
    the Palestinian side.  On Syria and Iran, Turkey argues that
    Turkey: 1) lives in a rough neighborhood and has an interest
    in minimizing friction with its neighbors; and 2) shares the
    same values and goals in the Middle East as the U.S.
    (stability, democracy and prosperity).  In this regard,
    Foreign Minister Gul delivered a call for democracy and
    reform in the Islamic world at the June OIC Summit in Tehran.

    -------------
    CHILD CUSTODY
    -------------

    ¶10. (SBU) Turkey has been a signatory to the Hague Convention
    since August 2000. Since that time, we are unaware of any
    children being returned to any country without the agreement
    of the abducting parent.  There are systemic problems:  1)
    Courts meet for 10 minutes monthly on an individual case and
    do not focus on Hague issues; 2) judges do not understand the
    Hague Convention requirement and rule on custody rather than
    Hague issues, thereby requiring a lengthy appeal process; 3)
    the legal process lasts between 2-3 years total; and 4) the
    Ministry of Interior does not focus resources on finding the
    abducted child and the parent.  The US currently has four
    applications pending, each for return of one child to the US.
     In one case the child has now been in Turkey over a year due
    to the slow court process and the judge used that delay to
    rule the child should stay in Turkey.  In another case, the
    Government of Turkey has been unable to locate a child
    abducted to Turkey in October 2002.  Due to physical abuse by
    the abducting father, the Turkish court ordered the child
    returned to the mother immediately.  The Interior Ministry
    places a low priority on these types of cases and has been
    unable to locate the child.

    ----------------
    TURKISH MILITARY
    ----------------

    ¶11. (SBU) Following the early August meeting of the Supreme
    Military Council, TGS CHOD Gen Ozkok now has clearer
    authority over the military than he had one year ago when he
    took over TGS.  He has surrounded himself with  like-minded
    senior officers of his own - vice his predecessor's -
    choosing and appears committed to supporting the reforms
    (both within Turkey and the military) needed to move toward
    the EU while trying to protect the military as defender of
    the secularist Turkish state.  The Turkish military has taken
    some concrete steps after the failed March 1 parliamentary
    vote to mend fences with the US, including supporting the
    establishment of the GLOC and approval of a request to
    station aircraft at Incirlik Air Base in support of Operation
    Iraqi Freedom. Additionally, the TGS has initiated
    preliminary planning to determine scope, risks, and
    requirements for a potential role in the Iraq Stabilization
    Force, and appears to have taken the important steps of
    helping to shape this positively in the public eye with a
    view to gaining the domestic support crucial to passage,
    noting this is in Turkey's interest to participate.  The
    military publicly states that it supports Turkey's EU
    candidacy, but some senior officials continue to criticize
    efforts to pass the necessary reforms to achieve this goal.

    -------------
    TURKISH MEDIA
    -------------

    ¶12. (U) Turkey has a lively and colorful media scene.
    Reporting often includes absolute fantasy passed as fact.
    Despite the large number of newspapers, however, readership
    is not as broad and deep as might be expected. Newspapers are
    influential in major cities but not far beyond. Most Turks
    get their news from television. Except for government-owned
    TRT television, all television stations in Turkey, like the
    print media, are owned by either individual businessmen or
    conglomerates. The press will be interested in your visit and
    seek comments at a number of venues.
    DEUTSCH

`