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### Viewing cable 05ANKARA1993, TURKISH STRAITS - TANKERS AND BYPASSES

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05ANKARA1993 | 2005-04-07 05:39 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ankara

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

    070539Z Apr 05

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001993

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    USDOE FOR CHUCK WASHINGTON
    USDOC FOR 4212/ITA/MAC/OEURA/CPD/DDEFALCO
    NSC FOR BRYZA

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ENRG EPET EWWT SENV TU
    SUBJECT: TURKISH STRAITS - TANKERS AND BYPASSES

    REF: A. ISTANBUL 412

         ¶B. ANKARA 1306 AND PREVIOUS
         ¶C. 04 STATE 178586

    This cable was coordinated with Congen Istanbul.  Sensitive
    But Unclassified.

    ¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: Turkey is publicly and privately set on
    Samsun-Ceyhan as the winning prospective Bosphorus bypass,
    but next steps are elusive and ambiguous.  All parties
    trumpet the success story of BTC -- as nominally the first
    Bosphorus bypass, expecting first tanker load at Ceyhan late
    autumn 2005.  Recent accidents in the Turkish Straits
    highlight the risks and challenges of increasing and varied
    traffic in the straits.  There is room for USG, GOT, and
    other governments and companies to engage on improving
    maritime safety.  The VTS is a useful monitoring system, but
    it has its limits in preventing accidents.  Turkey receives
    higher marks this winter for actively managing large tanker
    traffic, significantly lowering tanker waiting time over the
    previous winter.  End Summary.

    Improvements in Turkish Straits - but Still Accidents
    --------------------------------------------- --------

    ¶2.  (SBU) Oil company representatives tell us that during the
    past winter season the GOT greatly improved its management of
    large tanker (greater than 200 meters) traffic in the Turkish
    Straits.  On the margin of the March 28-29 Caspian-Black Sea
    Oil and Gas Conference in Ankara and in subsequent
    conversations, Chevron Texaco Marine Representative Kjell
    Landin made the following observations to Energy Officer
    (consistent with points made separately by BP officials to
    Embassy and Congen officers):

    --WAITING TIME SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED: While total transit
    time (combined Bosphorus and Dardanelles both directions) at
    one point reached 34 days in the winter of 2003/04 and total
    transit time exceeded 15 days for that entire four month
    winter period, total transit time exceeded 15 days for only a
    few days this past winter of 2004/05.

    --WHY?: Landin and others give GOT credit for more efficient
    use of the Vessel Traffic System (VTS, which came on line in
    the middle of the winter of 2003/04).   For example, the GOT
    applied measures such as moving to full day unidirectional
    passage and reducing tanker staggering time to 75 minutes, as
    needed when a queue developed.  Although the 03/04 winter
    appeared harsher, total straits closures totalled 5-6 days
    both winters.  The GOT's task this winter was made easier by
    a few other significant factors.  Approximately 1.5 million
    tons less oil were shipped out each month from the Black Sea
    January/February, compared to November/December, partly due
    to less production in Russia and partly due to diversion of
    some crude oil for egress to the Baltic Sea, in response to
    the delays the year before.  In addition, some empty tankers
    were pre-positioned in the Black Sea before the winter.

    --WILL IT CONTINUE?: The VTS and advanced methods were better
    employed this winter than the previous year, when there was
    evidence to suggest that there was insufficient political
    will to use the VTS to maximize safe passage, perhaps, Landin
    felt, out of a desire to call attention to the costs and
    risks of Turkish Straits passage.   According to Landin,
    there was room for BOTH increased safety AND increased
    passage, by - for example - reducing staggering time for
    empty northbound tankers (now treated the same as full ones)
    and devoting more attention to smaller and medium tankers.

    --BUT STILL ACCIDENTS: 1) The LPG TANK FERRY sinking in
    March, which closed the Bosphorus for a full day, followed by
    two days of unrelated closure due to heavy fog (Ref A), was
    not a weakness of the VTS, but did show the high danger of
    smaller traffic, to which less attention and regulation is
    applied.  According to Landin, there may have been inadequate
    oversight and potential corruption in allowing this old barge
    to be put in use.  2) On April 3 a 244 meter container ship
    and a 85 meter manganese ore cargo ship collided at the
    entrance of the Dardanelles, reportedly resulting in three
    deaths and closure for almost a day of the Dardannelles.
    This highlights that the VTS is an effective monitoring tool,
    but it has its limits in preventing accidents, and that
    straits entrance zones are particularly high risk zones, as
    previously identified.  Investigation of the incident is
    underway, but apparently the ship captains didn't or weren't
    able to react to warnings given by VTS officials.

    --The newly approved STRAITS NAVIGATION - ENVIRONMENTAL AND
    INSURANCE LAW (Ref A) appears a good step towards applying
    reasonable international standards, but the test will be
    implementation and reaction of shippers.  The ChevronTexcaco
    mariner said that there was some ambiguity in the drafting
    and intent.  Landin said that almost all big tanker shippers
    (including Russians) take on voluntary pilots, because they
    cannot afford to be perceived as flouting highest safety
    standards.

    --The DARDANELLES (Canakkale) is the more significant
    chokepoint than the Bosphorus, experiencing about 13 % more
    traffic, due to incoming LNG tankers and oil tankers to the
    TUPRAS refinery at Izmit.  Although in principle all tankers
    are treated the same, in effect TUPRAS and Turkish tankers
    are often jumped to the head of the queue.  Fortuitously, the
    closure related to the LPG incident and subsequent fog
    effected only the Bosphorus.

    BOSPHORUS BYPASS - WAITING FOR MARKET AND OIL COMMITMENTS
    --------------------------------------------- ------------

    ¶3.  (SBU) CHEVRONTEXACO officials repeated their case for
    making progress simultaneously and separately on improved
    maritime safety in the Straits and on developing the economic
    rationale for bypasses, in contrast to the approach taken in
    the so-called "Voluntary Principles" (Ref C).  They saw a
    role for USG attention and help on both.  ChevronTexaco has
    closely looked at many of the Bosphorus bypass proposals (in
    particular trans-Thrace and Samsun-Ceyhan), but concluded
    that the economic justification for investing in a bypass is
    still not clear cut, although they recognized some value for
    a bypass as an insurance policy.

    ¶4.  (SBU) WE GOT THE ROUTE: In several speeches and private
    meetings, including with visiting TDA official and
    contractor, GOT and BOTAS (Turkish state pipeline company)
    officials emphasized commitment to a Samsun-Ceyhan bypass
    route.  They stressed the oft-repeated rationale: spare
    capacity at Ceyhan port (even with Iraq pipeline flowing,
    they claim as much as 120 million tons spare capacity);
    one-country solution; and a potential for piggy-backing on
    some of BTC's right-of-way.  Both BOTAS and Turkish firm
    Calik Energy express serious interest and are reportedly both
    carrying out separate feasibility studies.  While GOT
    officials insist the government is united in supporting
    Samsun-Ceyhan, they continue to wait passively for the
    elusive oil throughput guarantee from oil shippers.

    ¶5.  (SBU) OTHER LINKAGES: GOT officials expressed strong
    support for timely completion of BTC, but called for linkages
    to Kazakhstan.  They equally called for natural gas linkages
    to Europe: 1) First, the Turkey-Greece connector underway,
    with possible extension to Italy, and 2) the prospective and
    larger Nabucco pipeline to central Europe (BOTAS is partner).
     BOTAS targets providing transit of 15 % of Europe's natural
    gas demand.  Potential supply would come first from Shah
    Deniz/South Caucasus Pipeline which will deliver gas via a
    spur to the Turkish grid by late 2006; development and target
    of a second phase is still up in the air.  Conference
    participants also expressed broad interest in resurrecting
    schemes for potential Turkmenistan gas transit to Europe, but
    lamented the abject failure of realizing the trans-Caspian
    natural gas pipeline in 2001 (moreover, difficult to envision
    success with the current regime).  Energy DDG Mithat Rende
    presented Turkey's energy strategy goals: 1) consolidate role
    as transit country, 2) establish energy hub, 3) facilitate a
    "fourth artery" to Europe, and 4) Protect the environment
    (i.e. the Straits).

    ¶6.  (SBU) MORE ON BYPASSES: All bypass promoters claim to
    have "imminent" crude oil commitments to fill their
    prospective lines.  Thrace Development Company says it is
    close to agreeing with the Russians.  Calik Energy states
    privately that they have commitments from the Russians and
    French company Total.  Many observers in Turkey are skeptical
    that Russian and TNK-BP interest in the Burgos-Alexandropolos
    project will go anywhere (moreover they regularly raise
    negative issues with respect to that project).  Some skeptics
    and conspiracy theorists think it is a smoke-screen to
    attempt to gain more commitment from governments.  Thrace
    Development, meanwhile, argued that there was a need for two,
    or three, bypass pipelines.  Some creative observers even
    proposed a "peace pipeline" linking the Turkish Thrace Black
    Sea coast and Greek Alexandropolos.

    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶7.  (SBU) Notably, there was no mention of the controversial
    - but dormant - "Voluntary Principles on the Passage of Oil
    Tankers through the Turkish Straits" (Ref C) at the
    conference, even from DDG Mithat Rende, the successor to the
    author and champion of the Voluntary Principles.  Recent
    accidents in the Straits show that even with improved
    application of maritime navigation management techniques and
    identified goal of maximizing safe passage, accidents can
    still happen.  A Bosphorus bypass would likely displace the
    "safest" oil (carried or contracted by the large oil
    companies), adding to the classic first mover - free rider
    conundrum (who will make the first substantial investment in
    a bypass?)
    EDELMAN

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