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### Viewing cable 04PANAMA40, PANAMA'S MAY 2004 ELECTIONS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04PANAMA40 | 2004-01-08 19:28 | 2011-05-28 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Panama

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PANAMA 000040

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN/BRIGHAM

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PINR PM POLITICS FOREIGN POLICY POL SPECIALIST
    SUBJECT: PANAMA'S MAY 2004 ELECTIONS

    REF: A. 03 PANAMA 1416
         ¶B. 03 PANAMA 2713
         ¶C. 03 PANAMA 3009
         ¶D. 03 PANAMA 3173

    SUMMARY: SAME HORSES, DIFFERENT RACE
    -------------------------------------
    ¶1.  (SBU) Panamanians nationwide will go to the polls on May
    2, 2004 to choose a president, 78 legislators, 75 mayors, 619
    local representatives, and 20 representatives to the Central
    American Parliament.  The presidential campaign currently is
    a two-man race (in a field of four candidates) with the
    economy (especially unemployment), corruption, and personal
    security (common crime) at the top of the campaign agenda.
    Despite calls from civic organizations for reforms to
    Panama's constitution, which all candidates have said that
    they favor, prospects are increasingly remote that voters
    will be consulted on that issue on May 2 via an extra ballot
    (para 11).  A December 15, 2003 La Prensa poll shows
    Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) candidate Martin
    Torrijos with a comfortable lead (49%-31%) over former
    President (1989-94) Guillermo Endara, the Solidarity Party
    candidate.  Trailing the two front-runners are Arnulfista
    candidate Jose Miguel Aleman (8%) and Cambio Democratico
    candidate Ricardo Martinelli (5%).  All the candidates are
    pro-American and can be expected to continue the current
    government's excellent cooperation on security and law
    enforcement issues.  Embassy is focusing on the campaign
    teams to identify any potential ministerial appointees who
    might be less compatible with U.S. interests.  Dominating
    international issues are upcoming Panama-U.S. FTA
    negotiations and Colombian border security.  End Summary.

    THE PARTIES AND THEIR ALLIANCES
    -------------------------------
    ¶2.  (U) Official Electoral Tribunal (TE) records identified
    just over 2 million registered voters (Panama's population is
    2.9 million), many of whom are independents.  Seven
    legally-registered parties currently are backing the four
    official presidential candidates.  The most recent
    registration figures show that by far Panama's biggest
    political party is the PRD (see below):

    Party                                Membership   Candidate
    -----                                ----------   ---------

    Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD)  445,000      Torrijos

    Arnulfista Party (PA)                 198,000      Aleman

    National Liberal Republican Movement  110,000      Aleman
    (MOLIRENA)

    National Liberal Party (PLN)           74,000      Aleman

    Solidarity Party (PS)                  72,000      Endara

    Cambio Democratico Party (CD)          52,000      Martinelli

    Popular Party (PP)                     50,000      Torrijos

    The PRD-PP coalition backing Torrijos counts 495,000 party
    members; the coalition backing Aleman counts 382,000.

    ¶3.  (SBU) Frictions between alliance partners have already
    developed at the legislative and local representative level
    but are most notable within the Arnulfista alliance, where
    candidates from all three parties may be competing for one
    spot in important districts.  Endara, an Arnulfista Party
    founding member who has nominal support from the Solidarity
    Party's weak base, is welcoming "refugees" from other
    parties.  Polling data show support for Torrijos has remained
    strong after the PRD's August 10 primaries, despite minor
    hiccups over sharing electoral space with PP members.  Party
    alliances notwithstanding, gauging support for legislative
    and local candidates will remain problematic until after
    February 2, when the parties must name their candidates.

    (SBU) MARTIN TORRIJOS: NOT HIS FATHER'S PRD
    -------------------------------------------
    ¶4.  (SBU) Martin Torrijos is the only presidential candidate
    nominated by his party via nationwide primaries.  His strong
    lead in the polls, which has persisted for many months,
    suggests that he has convinced many voters that his PRD is
    very different than the party that once was the political
    vehicle for Panama's military dictators (Ref. A).  On the
    other hand, many observers believe that Martin is in hock
    politically to the PRD's discredited old guard.  A Torrijos
    presidency may offer Panama its best chance for efficient
    administration.  He has distinguished himself by his soaring
    ambition to make Panama a "first world" country in 20-30
    years and by having the brightest and best ideas on how to do
    it.  The PRD is more democratic than it was before Martin
    controlled it.  He has less credibility on anti-corruption,
    having failed to distance himself from his campaign manager,
    Hugo Torrijos, despite evidence of malfeasance brought to
    light in the recent PECC scandal.  Torrijos' two VP
    candidates, who he will announce publicly on January 15, will
    most likely be businessman Samuel Lewis Navarro and Popular
    Party President and current Legislator Ruben Arosemena.

    SECURITY AGENDA
    ---------------
    ¶5.  (SBU) Besides promising to improve Panama's economy,
    indeed, to take economic and administrative measures to
    propel Panama into the ranks of the first world, Martin
    Torrijos' campaign has emphasized public/national security
    issues.  On the domestic front, the Torrijos team has focused
    on neighborhood security and what they claim to be an
    increase in violent crime.  On the international front, the
    PRD team has spoken frequently about how best to control the
    Panama/Colombia border region.  A Torrijos security brain
    trust (including former PNP Director Asvat) meet regularly to
    advise him on security.  In October, the PRD held a public
    conference on security matters (Ref D).

    ENDARA: A SOLID SECOND
    ---------------------
    ¶6.  (SBU) Endara (like third-place Aleman) has already named
    both vice presidential running mates, Guillermo (Billy) Ford
    and Alejandro Posse.  Both Ford and Posse served in the
    Moscoso Administration -- Ford as Ambassador to the U.S.
    (September 1999 - January 2003) and Posse as Minister of
    Agriculture (September 1999 - August 2000).  Endara and Ford
    are logical running-mates, having served as President and
    Vice President during 1989-94.  They chose Posse for his
    strong links to Panama's agriculture industry, which is also
    a key constituency for Aleman's Arnulfista party.  (Some
    observers fear Posse's protectionist tendencies.  During his
    brief tenure in the Moscoso Administration, Posse increased
    selected agricultural tariffs to their WTO-bound levels.)
    Through Posse, Endara seems to be looking for support from
    Panama's agricultural producers, a small but influential
    lobby with its skeptical eye focused on bilateral FTA
    negotiations with the US.

    ¶7.  (SBU) Given his record and reputation, Endara is the
    campaign's most plausible "anti-corruption" candidate.  Some
    of his most active followers are members of the
    Anti-Corruption Front (Frente Anti-Corrupcion), who
    constantly denounce corrupt practices.  Endara favors calling
    a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution to replace
    the current 1972 constitution that was drafted under
    Panamanian military dictator Omar Torrijos, father of
    candidate Martin Torrijos.  Endara also promises to
    immediately repeal President Moscoso's executive order that
    gutted Panama's freedom of information law, which gives only
    parties with a "personal interest" a right to know specifics
    about the internal workings of their government, including
    budgetary and personnel matters.  Endara's administration was
    widely viewed as honest but ineffective; many Panamanians
    frustrated by the current corruption choose to forget
    Endara's shortcomings on the policy side.  In economic
    issues, Endara's populist campaign rhetoric raises concerns
    about campaign commitments to agricultural constituents that
    could complicate U.S. efforts to open up key components of
    Panama's market.

    ALEMAN A DISTANT THIRD
    ----------------------
    ¶8.  (SBU) Last to officially launch his candidacy, polls show
    Arnulfista presidential candidate Jose Miguel Aleman's
    support is still struggling in single digits (8%), according
    to the latest polling data, and far behind front runners
    Endara (31%) and Torrijos (49%).  Despite effusive support
    from President Moscoso, Aleman's campaign is not gaining
    traction.  Some key defectors from the MOLIRENA party --
    including founding member and former Endara VP Guillermo
    "Billy" Ford -- have withdrawn their support from the Aleman
    coalition to back Endara.  (PLN's support for Aleman may be
    less dependable than MOLIRENA's since PLN backed Martin
    Torrijos against Moscoso in 1999.)  Aleman's first and second
    vice-presidential running mates are MOLIRENA President Jesus
    "Maco" Rosas and PLN President Anibal Galindo.

    ¶9.  (SBU) Though tainted by the corruption charges levied
    against this current administration, Aleman has been careful
    not to criticize Moscoso, fearing the loss of the
    Arnulfistas' formidable electoral machine.  Aleman has
    concentrated his campaign efforts outside Panama City in the
    interior of the country, where the Arnulfistas hold an edge
    over the PRD but face a fight with Endara.  Aleman has
    promised to continue Moscoso's social agenda to help the most
    needy.

    MARTINELLI: COURTING THE SWING VOTE
    -----------------------------------
    ¶10.  (SBU) Last in the polls with (5%) support, Cambio
    Democratico candidate Ricardo Martinelli is a long shot but
    will probably earn more than 4% of the popular vote, enough
    for his party to officially survive past 2004.  Having served
    in the current and in previous administrations, Martinelli
    could decide to throw his weight behind either Endara or
    Torrijos in exchange for a presidential appointment, though
    he denies such intentions.  Martinelli, who visited
    Washington during the week of December 8, markets himself as
    a no-nonsense businessman and gifted administrator and
    entrepreneur who can create jobs and effectively manage
    Panama's government, particularly the troublesome Social
    Security Fund (CSS).  He is calling for a limited return of
    U.S. Armed Forces to Panama, bashing his opponents for
    corruption and vowing to wipe it out.  He has proposed
    creating a Hollywood-like cinematographic center ("Panawood")
    at the former Howard AFB.  Martinelli's platform is the most
    straightforward of all the candidates.  His running mates are
    Roberto Henriquez, Moscoso's Vice Minister for Foreign Trade
    early in her term (September 1999 - August 2000), and Casa
    Esperanza activist Roxana Mendez Obarrio.

    HOT POTATO: CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM
    ---------------------------------
    ¶11. (SBU) With the Ecumenical Council, a consortium of
    Christian religious leaders, leading the charge, civic groups
    have pressed for reforms to Panama's constitution; however,
    not all Panamanians feel that reforming the constitution is
    the best way to resolve the country's problems.  All four
    candidates, eager to show that they're engaged on the issue,
    have signed the Ecumenical Council's petition to hold a
    non-binding referendum on whether constitutional reforms are
    necessary.  Of the four candidates, Endara's proposed
    solution is the most drastic and probably unconstitutional.
    He has stated that if elected, he will immediately convoke a
    parallel constituent assembly.  At first opposed to
    constitutional reforms, Torrijos now backs them through
    established constitutional procedures (which gives the
    Legislative Assembly greater control over the process), and
    remains opposed to convening a constituent assembly through a
    "fifth ballot" on May 2, 2004).  Legislators from Torrijos'
    PRD party have proposed a bill to amend the constitution,
    which two consecutive Legislative Assemblies would need to
    approve.  Aleman has said little, but another Arnulfista,
    Legislator Jose Blandon, Jr., proposed a bill in the
    Legislative Assembly to order the printing of a "fifth
    ballot" for the May 2 elections to ask Panamanians whether
    they want constitutional reforms.  Although the first to sign
    the Ecumenical Council's call for citizen consultations about
    constitutional reform, Martinelli has not spoken much on the
    subject.  Embassy will report on the issue of constitutional
    reforms septel, discussing further the feeble efforts to push
    them forward in the Legislative Assembly.

    (SBU) COMMENT: PANAMA'S CAMPAIGN AND U.S. INTERESTS
    --------------------------------------------- ------
    ¶12.  (SBU) In Panama's four national electoral events since
    1990 (two presidential elections and two referenda), voters
    have sided with the opposition every time.  But, despite
    mounting public dissatisfaction in Panama with official
    corruption, the 2004 campaign has not produced any
    Chavez-like, anti-system candidates.  In fact, all the
    candidates are friendly to the Embassy and pro-American in
    their outlook.  They all have professed their intent to
    continue the GOP's excellent cooperation on law enforcement
    and security matters.  This is a two-man race.  Martin
    Torrijos' comfortable lead over Guillermo Endara in opinion
    polls is not unassailable, as Mireya Moscoso demonstrated in
    1999 when she overcame a similar disadvantage late in the
    campaign to win an impressive come-from-behind victory.  For
    the campaign to become a real horse race, Endara must pick up
    mass support from defecting Arnulfistas, if not from
    Arnulfista candidate Jose Miguel Aleman himself, who may
    gradually conclude that his party's best post-election
    prospects lie in allying with Endara.  Until then, Endara
    must also hope for a gradual improvement in his own standing
    in the polls and an erosion in support for Torrijos.
    Torrijos, naturally, will do all he can to maintain his lead.
     Most observers have written off Aleman.  They may be right
    but it is hardly inconceivable for Aleman's support to
    increase (at Endara's expense), especially given the
    Arnulfistas' formidable electoral machine and their control
    of the government's pursestrings.  Martinelli, the dark
    horse, could conceivably throw his support one way or the
    other, although he denies having that intention.

    ¶13.  (SBU) The candidates are discussing vital national
    issues, such as constitutional reform, unemployment, and
    negotiating a bilateral Free Trade Agreement with the United
    States.  Despite broad support from civil society for
    constitutional changes, the two big parties have effectively
    stifled calls for a constituent assembly.  Panama's
    politicians do not want to be saddled with a new constitution
    that may do away with legislative immunity, greatly reduce
    what is by many accounts a grossly over-staffed and
    overfunded legislature, or force the government (especially
    the executive) to be more accountable to the citizens.  With
    regard to a U.S.-Panama FTA, the parties are all claiming
    that their candidates will extract the most benefits for
    Panama from the negotiations, rather than preparing the
    electorate for more economic openness.  President Moscoso has
    even claimed, implausibly, that her administration will
    conclude negotiations before she leaves office.  The
    constitution and the FTA, both of great import to the
    US-Panama bilateral relationship and to Panama, will require
    concerted thoughtful consideration and statesmanship, not
    likely until after May 2, 2004.

    WATT

`