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### Viewing cable 02AMMAN5485, JORDAN AND THE QIZ EXPERIENCE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
02AMMAN5485 | 2002-09-24 07:47 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Amman

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    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 AMMAN 005485

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR NEA DAS CHENEY
    STATE PASS USTR FOR NED SAUMS, DOUG BELL
    STATE PASS USAID FOR MSCOVILL
    USDOC FOR 4520/ITA/MAC/ONE/P.THANOS

    E.O. 12958:  N/A
    TAGS: ETRD EINV JO IS
    SUBJECT:  JORDAN AND THE QIZ EXPERIENCE

    REFS:  A) AMMAN 3761; B) 01 AMMAN 5728

    ¶1.  The Qualifying Industrial Zones (QIZ) initiative has had
    a net positive, and increasingly widely-felt, effect on
    Jordan's economy, political dynamics, and social structure.
    While the success of the initiative to date is irrefutable,
    the QIZ's will have to face a number of hurdles in the near
    future.  These include continuing regional instability, the
    rise of competing tariff preference programs in other parts
    of the world, and the wholesale reconfiguration of the
    global textile market in 2005 with the advent of the WTO's
    multifiber arrangement (MFA).  The QIZ's are well-equipped
    to meet these challenges and, in combination with Jordan's
    Free Trade Agreement with the U.S., will maintain a place
    for Jordan in the global textile production market.

    WHAT THE INITIATIVE IS

    ¶2.  The QIZ initiative was created by Presidential
    proclamation in November 1998.  It extended benefits of the
    U.S.-Israel Free Trade Agreement to certain industrial zones
    in Jordan identified and agreed upon by the U.S., Israeli,
    and Jordanian governments.  Goods produced in such zones
    were given duty-free access to the U.S., provided a certain
    percentage of the value added of the good came from the QIZ,
    Israel, and/or the West Bank/Gaza, in the following
    proportions:  11.7% QIZ origin; 11.7% Israeli origin; 11.6%
    QIZ/Israeli/WB/Gaza origin.  The balance of the value of the
    good could be from anywhere in the world.  In February 1999,
    the Israeli and Jordanian governments amended these
    percentages on a temporary basis, reducing the required
    Israeli input to 7% for high-tech goods and 8% for all other
    goods for five years.  (Note:  The QIZ concept has been on
    offer to Egypt as well since 1998, but Egypt has not yet
    requested QIZ designation for any industrial parks.  End
    note.)  The initiative was designed to provide an incentive
    for Jordanian and Israeli businesses to develop partnerships
    or even joint ventures in QIZ parks, thus creating a
    constituency in favor of normalization within both
    countries' business communities.

    ECONOMIC IMPACT

    ¶3.  The QIZ's have enjoyed enormous economic success, due in
    large part to the initiative's unforeseen attractiveness to
    foreign textile producers who came to the QIZ's both to
    escape quota ceilings in their own countries and to take
    advantage of tariff breaks of 30% or more on a wide range of
    apparel products.  The speed and effectiveness with which
    the QIZ's have sparked export-led growth in Jordan is
    impressive:  in 1999, total Jordanian exports to the U.S.
    were barely $13 million.  In 2002, QIZ exports to the U.S.
    are estimated to reach $400 million.  Because of the QIZ's,
    the U.S. is now Jordan's largest export market, and Israel
    (Jordan's other market for QIZ goods) is Jordan's fifth
    largest export market.  The initiative has created over
    21,000 new jobs directly, and an unknown level of indirect
    employment.  The QIZ's have also attracted over $200 million
    in new investment from some 11 countries, including Jordan,
    Israel, the U.S., the UAE, India, Pakistan, and China/Hong
    Kong/Taiwan.  While the bulk of QIZ investment initially
    came from East Asia, there are now as many Jordanian QIZ
    exporters as there are from any other investing country.

    ¶4.  These national-level figures come into even sharper
    focus at a regional level.  QIZ parks are routinely becoming
    engines of growth in their communities.  The QIZ in Irbid,
    Jordan's third-largest city, draws laborers from a half-
    dozen nearby communities, and QIZ exports from the Al Hassan
    Industrial Estate account for 80% of the park's exports.
    Previously, Al Hassan was primarily home to small industrial
    and engineering concerns linked to the Iraqi market.  In
    Zarqa, Jordan's biggest industrial governorate, the impact
    is even more noticeable.  The private sector-run QIZ park in
    nearby Al Dulayl, despite a slow start, is now the clear
    production leader for the region.  Al Dulayl's exports
    account for 50% of all exports from the governorate.  Even
    regions without functioning QIZ parks benefit from the
    program.  The port of Aqaba receives most of the imports of
    inputs for QIZ goods, and fully 40% of QIZ exports use Aqaba
    as well.  This translates into jobs for truckers and port
    workers, jobs which had been scarce in the years following
    imposition of sanctions on Iraq.

    ¶5.  At the local level, the QIZ initiative is having perhaps
    its strongest, yet least-publicized, impact.  In Irbid, QIZ
    exporters put $2 million in wages into the local economy
    each month.  The multiplier effect of these wages is felt in
    the retail sector, the transportation sector, and the food
    and personal services sectors in the city and beyond, to
    name just a few.  While no systematic study of these
    ancillary benefits has been undertaken, the anecdotal
    evidence of increased income growth can be seen on the
    streets in new goods in shops, new business and residential
    construction, and the like.

    ¶6.  The QIZ experience has also had proven structural
    benefits.  It is creating a trained industrial labor force
    on a large scale for the first time ever.  It has also given
    government and private-sector actors a crash-course in
    investment promotion.  The improvement in Jordan's ability
    to sell itself to foreign investors, particularly in the
    private sector, has been marked in the past three years.
    The private sector-run Al Tajammouat QIZ outside Amman is
    the best example.  A relative late-comer to the QIZ game,
    Tajammouat's management has aggressively marketed the park
    in East and South Asia.  As a result, Tajammouat is now home
    to more QIZ exporters than any other QIZ park (including the
    original park in Irbid).  In fact, Tajammouat's investment
    promotion officers have helped train the usually
    lackadaisical Jordan Investment Board in promoting the
    QIZ's.  Finally, the initiative is providing technology
    transfer, helping to create in Jordan a cadre of business
    managers, accountants, line supervisors, and workers who
    understand global standards for quality, timeliness of
    delivery, and dependability.  Such tech transfer is also
    visible in the creation of these new, modern industrial
    parks themselves, which will help Jordan to attract non-QIZ
    businesses in the future to take advantage of the FTA.

    THE POLITICAL IMPACT

    ¶7.  The political impact of the QIZ's has been more
    measured, but notable nevertheless.  At a macro level, the
    QIZ's have helped to moderate somewhat debate over
    normalization.  As early as 2000, it was not uncommon to see
    editorials sharply criticizing QIZ's because of the Israeli
    content requirement, calls for the discontinuation of the
    program, blackballing of businesses investing in QIZ's, and
    the like.  With the success of the initiative, notably the
    jobs it has created, that criticism has all but disappeared
    from the English-language press, and is far more muted in
    even the more vitriolic Arabic papers.  It is becoming
    increasingly difficult for the Muslim Brotherhood, for
    example, to call for the destruction of an initiative that
    is providing good incomes for thousands of families, many of
    them in traditionally poor, conservative communities.  Even
    at the lowest points of the Intifada, when Jordanian
    opposition groups were calling for breaking of diplomatic
    relations with Tel Aviv, the QIZ's were given barely a
    mention.  While there is still underlying discomfort with
    QIZ's among many conservative Jordanians, and while many
    Jordanian businessmen still shy away from QIZ investment
    (either in opposition to Israeli participation or fear of
    being blackballed for dealing with Israel), the public
    debate over the relative merits of the QIZ's seems to have
    been won by moderate elements.

     THE SOCIAL IMPACT

    ¶8.  This is perhaps the most interesting, unforeseen, impact
    of the QIZ's.  Some 70% of QIZ workers are women, and a
    significant percentage of those are new entrants into the
    workforce.  In addition, many of these women come from
    small, traditional villages.  Scores of women interviewed by
    the embassy reported an improved sense of self-worth, a
    greater feeling of independence, and a greater degree of
    overall satisfaction compared to their previous work in the
    home.  This increased sense of empowerment has found form
    in, among other things, women's discussion groups formed at
    some factories in at least one QIZ park, where women say
    they can talk about social and political issues that would
    be frowned upon back in the village.  Limited interviews
    with families have shown that, in many cases, a number of
    women in the same family often take jobs in QIZ's , thereby
    greatly increasing family income - especially in families
    where the males have been jobless for some time.  The base
    rate for a QIZ worker is Jordan's minimum wage of about
    $112/month, but in reality labor competition has driven
    those rates up to as much as $200-$250/month.  These changes
    have of course created some stresses, notably in families
    where women out-earn men, and in conservative family units
    where the patriarch may force women in the family to quit
    jobs or control their income through the use of direct-
    deposit into patriarch-controlled bank accounts.  In
    addition, many young women who take QIZ jobs leave the
    workforce upon marriage, creating a turnover and training
    problem.  These attitudes, though, are beginning to shift.

    ISSUES AHEAD

    ¶9.  The Jordanian government will have to face a number of
    procedural and structural issues to maintain the health of
    the QIZ's in the coming years.  Most immediately, they will
    need to renegotiate input percentages with the Israeli
    government.  The 8% input level reverts to 11% in February
    2004, and current investors are already howling about the
    negative impacts of returning to the higher levels.  Jordan
    has an interest in, de minimus, maintaining the 8% level, or
    in restructuring the percentages to allow for more flexible
    application of the Israeli input rule - both to keep current
    investors and attract new ones.  To their credit, the
    Jordanian government has for the first time framed this
    issue in terms of benefit to Israel of restructuring the
    regime, arguing that doing so will substantially increase
    investment and broaden production into new product lines,
    which would mean more business for Israeli firms as volumes
    increase.

    ¶10.  More generally, Jordan must cope with the rise of
    competing tariff preference programs in other parts of the
    world.  The Caribbean Basin Initiative and the Africa Growth
    and Opportunities Act are both fighting to attract the same
    pool of new investors from South and East Asia.  Jordan will
    need to do an even better job selling itself, and will need
    to further improve the functionality of the QIZ paperwork
    process, to ensure they can continue to attract those
    investors.  So far, Jordan has been fairly successful at
    trumping these two competitors.  Another concern for Jordan
    is the possibility of a Turkish-Israeli QIZ.  Domestic U.S.
    textile concerns make it unlikely that any such QIZ would
    include the textile sector, but a Turkish QIZ could steal
    potential higher-end manufacturers away from Jordan down the
    road - investors Jordan has not been successful in
    attracting so far.

    ¶11.  Politically, the QIZ's will continue to be affected by
    instability in the region.  Instability in either Iraq or in
    the West Bank/Israel has a negative affect on attracting new
    investors.  This has been particularly true in the West
    Bank, where spikes in Israeli/Palestinian violence have
    correlated exactly with drop off's in new investor interest.
    However, none of the turmoil to date has affected existing
    investor interest.  None of the spikes in violence resulted
    in lost production or sustained lost access to Israeli
    inputs or the port of Haifa.  Partly as a result of the
    ability of QIZ producers to thrive even during instability
    in the West Bank, new investor interest has traditionally
    returned to the QIZ's about three months after each spike in
    violence.  In the long term, both Jordan and Israel have an
    interest in making sure QIZ production is unaffected by
    instability in the West Bank.  Thus we can expect both sides
    to work hard to make sure access to inputs is maintained and
    the northern border crossing to Haifa remains open.

    ¶12.  Internally, Jordan's biggest challenge will be
    continuing to be able to provide a trained industrial labor
    force to a growing list of interested investors.  Industrial
    labor training programs in Jordan are underfunded and poorly
    targeted.  Most investors train their own employees, and
    wage competition has started to be felt in the more
    established QIZ's in Irbid, Zarqa and Amman as the most
    highly trained workers can now command more than double the
    normal wage.  While a labor squeeze is not yet a serious
    problem, it may not be far off, and could slow investment
    interest in the country.  The kingdom recently took initial
    steps to improve and expand industrial labor training
    through a joint Labor Ministry/Armed Forces training
    program, but much more needs to be done.  On a related note,
    the QIZ's continue to experience periodic isolated episodes
    of labor complaints, usually surrounding payment of wages to
    expatriate workers.  While these incidents remain few, they
    are still an irritant that the GOJ will need to monitor and
    take corrective action on as necessary to avoid any labor
    stigma being attached to the QIZ's.

    ¶13.  The biggest structural challenge for the QIZ's, though,
    is the entry into force of the WTO multifiber arrangement in
    ¶2005.  On January 1 of that year, quotas on textile imports
    into the U.S. will be eliminated, which will give low-cost,
    high volume producers like China and Pakistan a massive
    advantage in the textile sector.  Jordan's challenge will be
    to maintain its current investors and try to attract new
    ones in a far more competitive global textile market.  A
    number of potential new investors interviewed by the Embassy
    have indicated that, even in the post-2005 environment, they
    would be interested in establishing facilities in Jordan.
    Many of them believe that U.S. import quotas will be
    replaced with increased duties, either under safeguards
    measures or anti-dumping cases.  Should this be the case,
    Jordan's tariff benefit under the QIZ's will be even more
    pronounced.  In addition, many producers have a policy of
    diversifying their sources of production to hedge against
    instability in any one country.  Thus it appears Jordan,
    with aggressive management by the government, will be able
    to maintain a viable textile sector even after the
    implementation of the multifiber arrangement in 2005.

    THE FTA AND THE QIZ'S

    ¶14.  The U.S.-Jordan Free Trade Agreement will, by 2010,
    eliminate tariffs on all textile products.  Thus, eventually
    the QIZ's will be anachronistic as the FTA matches tariff
    breaks and provides for more straight-forward rules of
    origin (i.e., no Israeli input requirements).  Such a
    distinction will matter little for Jordan's economy or
    ability to attract investment, as its tariff preferences
    into the U.S. market relative to third countries will remain
    the same.  However, if Israel hopes to continue to reap the
    political and economic benefits of the QIZ's it will have to
    scramble to keep Jordan-based textile producers interested
    in the QIZ initiative.  Such an interest is not nearly so
    pressing for Jordan, whose main benefit from the QIZ's has
    been jobs, investment, and technology transfer -- all things
    that will continue under the FTA.

    COMMENT

    ¶15.  The QIZ's are an important success story for Jordan and
    for the ability of economic cooperation to foster political
    cooperation.  They have also had a number of unintended -
    and overwhelmingly positive - consequences, from industrial
    labor force and investment promotion training to women's
    empowerment.  Growth in new businesses has slowed from its
    early heyday, due in part to continuing regional instability
    and constraints on availability of trained labor.  In
    addition, the uncertainty of the post-2005 global textile
    environment is legitimate cause for pause in some Jordanian
    circles.  Nevertheless, the QIZ initiative continues to draw
    interested textile sector investors and to lay the
    groundwork for attracting investors under the FTA.
    GNEHM

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