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### Viewing cable 02HARARE1406, THE ZIMDOLLAR PLUMMETS ON THE PARALLEL MARKET

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
02HARARE1406 | 2002-06-12 07:16 | 2011-08-24 16:30 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Harare

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 001406

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    STATE FOR AF/S, AF/EX, HR/OE-MTRACY
    NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER
    USDOC FOR 2037 DIEMOND
    LONDON FOR CGURNEY
    PARIS FOR NEARY
    NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
    PASS USTR - ROSA WHITAKER
    RIO FOR WEISSMAN
    TREASURY FOR ED BARBER AND C WILKINSON

    E.O. 12958: DECL: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD ZI
    SUBJECT: THE ZIMDOLLAR PLUMMETS ON THE PARALLEL MARKET

    REFTEL:  HARARE 1188

    SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY.
    NOT FOR INTERNET POSTING.

    ¶1.  (SBU) Summary: After remaining fairly stable for
    six months from December 2001 at around Z $320=US $1,
    the Zimdollar has devalued sharply on the parallel
    market over the last few weeks, with reports of trades
    in recent days going off at anywhere between Z $520 and
    Z $580.  This is roughly a 70 percent depreciation in
    three weeks.  The cause is a mismatch between supply
    and demand.  Demand is higher due to: changed tobacco
    sales rules that require all purchases of the leaf,
    including local, to be settled in US dollars; emigrants
    converting local assets to hard currency; importers
    scrambling for a stash of forex; likely GOZ buying to
    pay for fuel and food imports; and increasing
    recognition that the Zim economy is going to suffer
    substantially this year.  Supply is lower due to: slow
    tobacco sales and a stricter payment regime that sees
    the GOZ capture all forex receipts; both gold exports
    and manufactured exports are dropping steadily; and
    hoarding and speculation are more commonplace.  The
    effects of the slide on the economy are consistently
    negative: more and higher inflation; increased
    shortages of imported goods and domestic goods
    requiring imported components; shrinking real incomes;
    declining GDP; increased government deficits; financial
    and human capital flight; and reduced standards of
    living.  End Summary.

    ¶2.  (SBU) A 70 percent currency devaluation in three
    weeks is a major alarm bell.  As no one knows where or
    when this slide will end, there is a so-far weak but
    distinct odor of panic in the air.  Such panic tends to
    become self-fulfilling when a run on a currency is
    allowed to precede unchecked, as is the case here so
    far.  The Government has been silent on the matter, but
    in the Finance Ministry there is a growing sense of
    looming disaster at the prospect of further deep and
    swift damage to Zimbabwe's economy as a consequence of
    runaway devaluation and the negative follow-on effects.
    We predict that any GOZ response, when it comes, will
    be heavy-handed and perhaps ill-thought-out, and it
    will rely on greater control rather than greater
    reliance on open market forces.  This could be a recipe
    for further economic disaster.

    ------------------------
    Reasons Behind the Slide
    ------------------------

    ¶3.  (SBU) We have sifted, to the best of our ability,
    through the plethora of facts, half-facts and
    allegations that are currently being bandied about to
    explain the rapid slide.  We provide those we find most
    valid here in no particular order, and caution that the
    list is likely incomplete.  As the parallel forex
    market is a "free market", it is supply and demand that
    determines the price of the commodity, and the
    fundamental reason for the slide is demand that exceeds
    supply.

    Increased Demand Factors
    ------------------------

    == The new tobacco payment rules, announced in late
    April by the Reserve Bank and aimed at halting any
    forex leakage (the GOZ wants to capture ALL export
    receipts), requires that purchases be done in US
    dollars and that all payments go directly to the
    central bank.  This has two effects: local buyers (who
    buy either for domestic cigarette production or to
    process tobacco and then export it) now need to source
    hard currency when in previous years they could pay in
    Zimdollars.  Although the Reserve Bank set up a complex
    scheme utilizing a memorandum of deposit facility and a
    guarantee facility so that local banks could access
    offshore lines of credit for local buyers, none of
    these arrangements have materialized so far.  As a
    consequence local buyers have been sourcing small
    amounts of hard currency in the parallel market,
    driving up the price.

    == A host of sources have told us that the GOZ has been
    in the market for US dollars the last two weeks to make
    good on their promise to pay the Libyans for fuel
    imports (after deducting for exports to Libya and
    investments).  Apparently promises to pay no longer
    satisfy the northern neighbor, and it is time to put up
    or be shut off.  The other half of this claim is that
    the printing presses are running on double shifts to
    print the Zimdollars that are chasing limited forex.
    We have not been able to come up with hard evidence
    that proves either contention, but have no reason not
    to believe them.

    == We have also been told that the GOZ is in the market
    for hard currency to fund food imports.  Given the
    necessity, this is also highly probable behavior.

    == The numbers of intending emigrants, swollen by
    evicted white commercial farmers, is rising rapidly,
    and they need hard currency when they cross the border
    for the last time.  In addition, many of them are
    selling assets and chattels before departure, and they
    are demanding payment in hard currency.  MDC President
    Morgan Tsvangirai told us June 10 that the local Indian
    community bought up much of the forex supply last month
    after a war veteran leader threatened to take over
    their businesses and/or seize property.

    == There is a growing perception on the street that the
    sanctions imposed by us and others are affecting the
    GOZ leadership.  The thinking is that the leadership
    will lash out in an anti-Western response, perhaps
    outlawing all forex trading or holdings (limiting such
    to the Reserve Bank).  Consequently there is a rush to
    get hard currency now, while one still can.

    == At a NEPAD/World Economic Forum conference in South
    Africa a few weeks ago, Zimbabwe's Finance Minister
    laid out some bleak facts on his country's economic
    performance, including that a third of jobs in the
    manufacturing sector had been lost in the last year and
    a half to two years, and that an official devaluation
    was long overdue.  These remarks added to the negative
    pressure on the local currency, and created an
    expectation of further weakening, thereby sowing the
    seeds of substantial devaluation.

    == And finally, the perception that the Zimdollar is
    now on a runaway slide means that all importers, be it
    retailers or manufacturers, want to salt away a stock
    of hard currency, thereby feeding the chase that builds
    on itself.

    Decreased Supply Factors
    ------------------------
    ¶4.  (SBU) On the supply side of the pricing formula are
    a number of developments that cause the market to be
    very short, especially in light of the above demand
    factors.

    == Tobacco sales have been slow to date, with both
    commercial and small-scale indigenous growers saying
    that even with the recently announced subsidy, prices
    are too low to provide a real return on the crop so
    many are holding back.  Slow sales means reduced hard
    currency inflows to the Reserve Bank.

    == On any tobacco sold, the Reserve Bank pays out to
    the growers 80 percent of the proceeds in Zimdollars at
    the subsidy price (a special rate of USD 1 equals about
    Zim $100, see Reftel).  The remaining 20 percent is
    intended to be set aside to fund a forex-denominated
    loan facility that tobacco growers can access to
    purchase necessary imported components to continue
    production.  To date there has been no funding of this
    facility (i.e. the GOZ is hanging on to all proceeds)
    and therefore no drawdowns of hard currency by farmers.
    This is an additional forex supply constraint not seen
    in prior years, when 20 percent of receipts went
    directly into farmer's foreign currency accounts, and
    it is a contributing factor to the mismatch of supply
    and demand.

    == Once the run started, holders or sellers of hard
    currency have held on, hoping for higher prices and by
    acting thus are helping to ensure that the local dollar
    devalues.

    == Zimbabwe's GDP continues to shrink, resulting in
    reduced manufactured exports.  The gold industry is
    also on the ropes; in 2000 exports totaled 27,000
    ounces and last year this dropped to 18,000 ounces.
    The trend of declining gold production is continuing
    this year, and though the gold price has firmed
    somewhat, overall, gold export proceeds are down,
    another forex supply constraint (gold is Zimbabwe's
    second-largest hard currency earner).

    -----------
    The Effects
    -----------

    ¶5.  (SBU) The effects of this currency slide on the
    Zimbabwean economy are strongly negative.  The rapid
    devaluation means that inflation will continue to climb
    (up from the most recent May figure of 122 percent) and
    could easily exceed 200 percent at year-end (as the
    higher costs of imported goods and components are
    passed through, exacerbated by the rapidly swelling
    money supply).  The higher inflation, coupled with
    price controls and shrinking disposable income, will
    further reduce GDP, resulting in more manufacturing
    slowdown or shutdown, and further job and income loss.
    High domestic inflation cancels out the export lift
    normally associated with a weak currency, and high
    inflation, coupled with the central bank's low interest
    rate strategy, will further strip the country's already
    very low savings base, which is now only 6 percent of
    GDP, down from 9 percent last year.  This means that
    any recovery will be that much more difficult to
    execute, as there is little or no savings base to fund
    capital expenditure.

    ¶6.  (SBU) The devaluation also makes food imports and
    any government relief program more expensive (if
    currency is sourced at parallel rates), increasing the
    likely footprint of malnutrition or starvation.  Higher
    costs and the slowdown of the economy means that the
    government's deficit will increase as spending surges
    and receipts fall.  Predictions made by Finance Minster
    Makoni that the deficit would be slowly brought under
    control this year and next are clearly going to prove
    wrong.  The devaluation and higher cost-of-living will
    increase the brain drain of service professionals to
    either regional or overseas destinations.  Electricity
    costs will increase (the state power authority
    announced a 45 percent increase two weeks ago), as 30-
    40 percent of national power consumption is imported.
    With the parallel and official rate difference at a
    multiple of ten, the corruption opportunities for
    ruling party insiders who have access to hard currency
    at the official rate are breathtaking.  Unfortunately
    these negative consequences tend to be self-
    reinforcing, and cumulative in a geometric rather than
    additive mode.  This means that damage can snowball
    quickly, and because it is widespread, take longer to
    repair.
    ¶7.  (SBU) Comment. Zimbabwe's economy, already against
    the ropes and bleeding badly, looks set to receive
    another series of body blows.  Coupled with the food
    shortage, the negative economic repercussions of an
    uncontrolled and steep devaluation make it certain that
    the next 12 months will bring very difficult and hard
    times to Zimbabwe, with levels of suffering not before
    seen.  Given the levels of ego and greed at the
    leadership level we doubt that this coming crisis will
    bring about a substantive change of heart or policy,
    meaning that more of Zimbabwe will simply disappear
    over the edge of the abyss in the near term.  End
    Comment.

    SULLIVAN

`