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### Viewing cable 05ADANA37, TURKEY'S 2004 TRADE WITH IRAQ SURPASSES 2003 LEVELS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05ADANA37 | 2005-02-24 12:59 | 2011-08-24 16:30 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Adana

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    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ADANA 000037

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON ETRD PREL ENRG IZ TU ADANA
    SUBJECT: TURKEY'S 2004 TRADE WITH IRAQ SURPASSES 2003 LEVELS

    1.(SBU)  Summary:  Determining export totals by region is an
    inexact science, but data from local business groups indicates
    trade between southeast Turkey and Iraq reached approximately
    $586 million in 2004.  (Note:  Total Turkish exports to Iraq in
    2004 were $1.8 billion.  End note.)  Moreover, since April 2003,
    some $2.5 billion in refined petroleum, related transportation
    services and sustainment commodities, like water, have been
    delivered or are en route to Iraq through the region's Habur
    Gate in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF).  Contacts
    claim that revenue from this increase in economic activity is
    not having a significant impact on employment and investment in
    southeast Turkey.  Despite those claims, to the extent more
    truckers are contracted to go to Iraq, common sense suggests
    there should be additional income and employment in the region.
    However there is a shortage of reliable statistics and anecdotal
    evidence to confirm that assumption.  End summary.

    Southeast Turkey's Exports to Iraq
    ----------------------------------

    2.(U)  Southeast Turkey accounts for roughly 30 percent of
    Turkey's population, and 15 percent of its GDP.  The
    Gaziantep-based Southeast Anatolian Exporters Union (SAEU)
    reports its members' 2004 exports to Iraq were $237.5 million,
    close to two times the previous year's amount (Note: SAEU
    includes exporters from Gaziantep, Kilis, Sanliurfa, Diyarbakir,
    Sirnak, Siirt and Mardin provinces.  According to the Gaziantep
    Chamber of Commerce, Gaziantep alone accounted for $178 million
    of the union's exports to Iraq in 2004, up from $99 million in
    ¶2003.  End note.)  Statistics from the Adana Chamber of Commerce
    show Adana province's 2004 exports to Iraq coming in at $96
    million, almost four times the 2003 total.  Adding to these
    figures information from the Mersin-based Mediterranean
    Exporters Union (MEU), we get a snapshot of the southeast
    region's exports as a whole for 2004:

    2003            2004
    (in millions of USD)

    SAEU:           122.5   237.5
    Adana CoC:       24.5      96.0
    Sub-Total:      147.0   333.5
    MEU:                    ----            252.6
    Total:          ----            586.1

    (Note:  Unfortunately, and somewhat strangely, neither MEU nor
    other business contacts in Mersin, including the Chamber of
    Commerce, have data on 2003 exports to Iraq.  End note.)

    What is being exported?
    -----------------------

    3.(U)  Adana exporters sent $27.7 million worth of machinery and
    mechanical equipment (e.g. agricultural-related machinery,
    portable welding, some medical equipment, pre-manufactured steel
    elements, pre-cast concrete infrastructure material), as well as
    food products, and assorted manufactured goods to Iraq.   As for
    exporters of the SAEU, a representative citing Gaziantep
    statistics stated ready-to-wear apparel, machine-made carpets,
    grains, chemical products, dry fruits, and edible oils companies
    are doing particularly well.  Statistics for SAEU as a whole are
    as follows (millions of dollars):

                                    2003            2004

    Cereals/Legumes 22.1            52.2
    Chemicals                       21.9            29.1
    Rugs                            14.7            28.1
    Ready to wear           14.4            25.3
    Cement                  9.7             17.9
    Steel                   6.9             17.4
    Electronics             8.0             16.0
    Dryfruit/ed oils        5.2             14.5
    Wood                            6.2             11.9
    Transport vehicles      2.4             8.1
    Raw textiles            3.6             7.9
    Leather products        5.5             7.1
    Fish/Livestock          1.1             1.1
    Fresh fruits/Veg        0.6             0.3
    Minerals                        0.4             0.6

    As an aside, a partner in one of Mersin's largest exporters of
    cereals and legumes told us that, while the food sector in
    general is doing quite well now, his Mersin company's sales to
    Iraq were actually higher in 2003 than in 2004.  He attributed
    this to purchases by Saddam's regime, as well as food assistance
    programs, stocking up prior to the war.

    Sustainment
    -----------

    ¶4.  (SBU)  Since April 2003, some $2.5 billion in refined
    petroleum, related transportation services and sustainment
    commodities, like water, have been delivered or are en route to
    Iraq through the Habur Gate in support of Operation Iraqi
    Freedom (OIF).  It is difficult to specify just what portion of
    that amount has benefited Turkish companies directly; of the
    benefits that have accrued to Turkey, it is even more difficult
    to ascertain the portion that ends up in southeastern Turkey.
    Petrol Ofisi, for example, said to AMCON ADANA in December 2004
    that it has been making 3 to 5 percent profit on sales of some
    $1.6 billion during this period, and local water sales for OIF
    sustainment have grossed approximately $90 million.

    ¶5.  (SBU) These profits probably make a substantial difference
    to the profits of Petrol Ofisi - a nationwide company quoted on
    the Istanbul Stock Exchange - but have little local impact on
    the Southeast.  On the other hand, to the extent Petrol Ofisi is
    contracting more drivers to go to Iraq there should be
    additional income and employment for the truckers concerned.
    However there is a shortage of reliable statistics and anecdotal
    evidence, especially regarding employment figures, to confirm
    that assumption.  In the infrastructure materiel business, for
    example, one local employer of almost 400 workers said he hired
    approximately 15 percent more workers in 2004 over 2003.  But
    the largest construction firm in town (employing close to 2000),
    which is very active in Iraq, reports no increase in employment:
     "our sector is still in crisis," says the company's CEO.  The
    region relies heavily on day labor that is often not recorded on
    the books, thus a  true picture of the impact of increased trade
    with Iraq is difficult to measure.

    ¶6.  (SBU) The sector break-down of MEU members' 2004 exports may
    provide some additional insight into the local impact of U.S.
    buying for sustainment.  (Note: MEU is the union which covers
    exporters mostly from Mersin and Adana.  End note).  The
    following figures are MEU exports for 2004, in millions of
    dollars (no 2003 figures available):

    LPG                     $85.1
    Diesel          $34.9
    Gas                     $25.3
    Pre-fab steel   $17.3
    Red lentils     $10.9
    Edible oils     $ 8.1
    Soaps           $ 8.0
    Cleaning prod   $ 7.9
    Beans           $ 7.7
    Soft drinks     $ 6.6
    Beer            $ 6.4
    Alumin/cables   $ 5.3
    (All others categories of exports fall below $5.0 million)

    Informal sector
    ---------------

    7.(SBU)  Informal - including black market - trade between
    Turkey and Iraq is almost impossible to measure.  Developments
    in the last two years may have moved some, especially truckers,
    from the informal sector (e.g. smuggling of fuel during Saddam's
    regime) to the formal sector, as they enter into transportation
    contracts for sustainment fuel providers.  For these truckers,
    there may be a decrease in the standard of living, as a result
    of costs associated with participating in the formal economy,
    such as taxes and social security payments.  Many truckers, as
    seen in December's strikes, even claim to be breaking even or
    actually losing money.  Until three months ago, only the Turkish
    side was combating fuel smuggling out of Iraq by truckers.
    (Note:  Fuel in Iraq costs 5-10 cents per liter, while in Turkey
    it sells for approximately $1.50 per liter.  End note.)  In
    response to GoT complaints, Iraqi officials have now implemented
    regulations that have greatly decreased the amount of fuel
    truckers are able to smuggle, though the practice has not ended
    altogether.  Additionally, local smuggling by day traders occurs
    in commodities such as sugar and tea, which are far less
    expensive in Iraq than in Turkey.

    Trade may be up, but minimal macro impact so far
    --------------------------------------------- ---

    8.(SBU)  Contacts assert that everyone is getting a small piece
    of the modest benefits of this trade.  Exporting companies see
    some revenues, workers feel a bit of job security with the
    re-emergence of this market, and -- to the extent that companies
    are actually paying taxes and/or social security -- government
    gains some benefit from the trade.

    9.(SBU)  However interlocutors from Diyarbakir to Mersin to
    Mardin claim that the increased exports to Iraq over the last
    year are not resulting in any significant increase in investment
    or job creation in southeast Turkey, be it from domestic or
    foreign sources.  (Note:  They further assert that few Turks,
    aside from some smaller ethnic Kurdish Turks doing informal
    sector investment, which is difficult to track, are making
    significant investments in Iraq.  End note.)  One or two
    transportation companies based in southeast Turkey have told us
    they have constructed warehouses near Habur Gate, and one
    reinvested in its trucking fleet, but this does not appear to be
    an across-the-board phenomenon.  Several factors are mentioned
    to explain why trade with Iraq has resulted in little investment
    in Turkey.

    10.(SBU)  First, the lack of security in Iraq currently leaves
    the business community in a "wait-and-see" posture, especially
    as some businesses are also still paying down debts incurred in
    the wake of the 2000-01 financial crisis.  Second, excess
    capacity in the region, and in plants elsewhere Turkey, seems to
    be filling the rising demands of this relatively small market
    without new investments.  (Note:  While it seems hard to believe
    that there was so much unused capacity in the southeast that
    exports could double with such a minimal impact on employment
    and investment, it is hard to find contrary evidence.  The
    region had been very depressed in 2002-03 in the wake of the
    financial crisis.  End note.)

    ¶11. (SBU) Finally, business contacts claim that despite the
    increased level of exports, their profit margins are still quite
    thin.  Some claim to be staying in business with almost no
    profit, just hoping for more opportunities when the security
    situation improves.  Representatives of international businesses
    have recently been visiting industrial zones in Adana, Mersin
    and Gaziantep, according to local contacts, in order to "see
    what we do and do not have," but no major investments have yet
    been forthcoming from such visits.  One area that could use
    investment in Mersin, for example, is cold storage capacity,
    which is currently strained by a significant amount of American
    chicken parts moving to Iraq.

    ¶12.  (SBU) As for investment in Iraq, several larger Turkish
    players with southeast presence say they are awaiting
    privatization there.  We hear that Sabanci group is interested
    in the water and cement sectors in Iraq, for example.
    Gaziantep-based SANKO is taking a wait-and-see approach, mulling
    possible opportunities in Syria (septel) for the moment and
    shipping textile products, edible oil and water to Iraq from
    existing plant in southeast Turkey.

    13.(U) Baghdad minimize considered.

    REID

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