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### Viewing cable 04PRETORIA4784, SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04PRETORIA4784 | 2004-10-29 14:41 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Pretoria

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    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

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    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 004784

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR AF/S/JDIFFILY; AF/EPS; EB/IFD/OMA
    USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/MAC/AME/OA/DIEMOND
    TREASURY FOR OAISA/BARBER/WALKER/JEWELL
    USTR FOR COLEMAN
    LONDON FOR GURNEY; PARIS FOR NEARY

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EINV EFIN ETRD BEXP KTDB PGOV SF
    SUBJECT:  SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER
               OCTOBER 29, 2004 ISSUE

    ¶1. Summary.  Each week, AMEmbassy Pretoria publishes an
     economic newsletter based on South African press reports.
     Comments and analysis do not necessarily reflect the
     opinion of the U.S. Government.  Topics of this week's
     newsletter are:
     -  New Bank Account Aimed at Poor;
     -  Mid Term Expenditure Framework Submitted to Parliament;
     -  Consumer Inflation Subdued;
     -  European Firm Survey Optimistic on SA Economy;
     -  Producer Prices Remain Low
     End Summary.

    New Bank Account Aimed at Poor
    ------------------------------

    ¶2.  South African banks introduced a new national banking
     account, Mzansi, aimed at attracting the over 13 million
     South Africans not participating in the formal financial
     sector.  The government's goal of banking the 'unbanked'
     population drove this low-cost account via the Black
     Economic Empowerment (BEE) financial services charter.
     Government hopes to reach this goal by encouraging banks
     to lower their historically high bank charges and increase
     the number of ATMs and branches in lower-income areas.
     Charges for the Mzansi account vary between banks and
     range from 30 percent to 60 percent less than charges on
     previous account offerings.  Typical bank charges for
     Mzanzi accounts include ATM cash withdrawals and cash
     deposits, with each bank charging different amounts.  The
     bank charges for ATM cash withdrawals range between R3.25
     ($0.52, using 6.2 rands per dollar) and R5 ($.81).  Bank
     charges for cash deposits range from R4 ($0.65) to R10.75
     ($1.73).  Other types of charges also vary by bank.  FNB
     charges the lowest rates for using the Mzansi card as a
     debit card to pay for goods, while ABSA bank charges no
     fee to open a new account, has no minimum balance
     requirements, and does not charge for failed transactions
     when funds are inadequate.  A deposit of R20 ($3.23) is
     required to open an account, and some banks require a
     minimum account balance as well.  South African banks
     pooled their infrastructure costs of establishing Mzansi
     accounts, which means that 12,000 ATMs are available to
     every Mzansi account holder.  So far, the big four South
     African banks and Postbank, the post office's savings
     institution, are the only one offering the Mzansi account.
     Source:  Business Day and Business Report, October 26.

    MID TERM EXPENDITURE FRAMEWORK SUBMITTED TO PARLIAMENT
    --------------------------------------------- ---------

    ¶3.  Every October, the Finance Minister presents the
     Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), which
     highlights the South African budget framework for the next
     three years.  MTBPS updates economic growth and revenue
     and expenditure forecasts and suggests potential policy
     changes that would support the government's key
     priorities.  Key highlights of Finance Minister Trevor
     Manuel's speech included:  (1) relaxation of foreign
     exchange controls on South African corporations; (2) an
     additional R50 billion ($8 billion) aimed at poverty
     alleviation, infrastructure improvements and increased
     wages of teachers and police; (3) no substantial tax
     changes; and (4) increased budget deficit in 2005/6,
     rising to 3.5 percent of GDP compared to 3.2 percent in
     2004/05.  GDP forecasted growth for the next two years
     were revised, reaching 3.9 and 3.7 percent 2005 and 2006,
     compared to February 2004's forecasts of 3.6 and 4 percent
     respectively.  Fiscal policy continues to remain slightly
     expansionary in the short term.  In FY 2005, the deficit
     as a percentage of GDP should reach 3.2 percent and then
     gradually decline to 2.5 percent by FY2007, as revenues
     should increase by 10 percent and expenditures by 9
     percent over the two-year period.  High growth in social
     services spending puts increasing pressure on government
     expenditures.  Welfare and social security spending
     (including child support, disability and elderly grants)
     constitute the fastest growing share of overall
     expenditures, increasing from 18.6 percent of total
     government expenditures in FY 2004 to 20 percent by 2007.
     Health spending shares will remain relatively constant at
     12.5 percent in FY2004 and reaching 12.6 percent by 2007.
     Little change in tax policy was announced.  Gross tax
     revenue for 2004/05 is expected to be R1.9 billion higher
     than the February 2004.  Corporate taxes are expected be
     R6.2 billion less than budgeted, higher value added and
     personal tax revenues offset weaker corporate tax
     collections.  The inflation rate, consumer prices
     excluding mortgages (CPIX) remains well within the
     targeted 3-6 percent range at 5 percent over the next
     three years.  Source:  Business Day and Business Report,
     October 27; Standard Bank's MTEF Alert, October 26.

    ¶4.   Comment.  The most unexpected announcement was the
     relaxation of exchange rate controls for corporations.
     The present rules limits offshore investments to R2
     billion per project for investments in Africa and R1
     billion elsewhere, in addition to 20 percent of the excess
     cost.  Now, the limits on outward investments by local
     corporations and restrictions on the repatriation for
     foreign dividends are removed as well as restrictions on
     individuals to invest in foreign firms listed on the South
     African exchanges.  Even though there are no restrictions
     on corporations' foreign direct investment, corporations
     will still be required to apply to the Reserve Bank for
     approval.  Limits on pension funds, insurance companies,
     mutual funds (unit trusts) and individuals are still in
     place but expectations are that they will be removed soon.
     More relaxed exchange controls for corporations should
     help the government's goal of investment reaching 25
     percent of GDP by 2014.  End Comment.

    CONSUMER INFLATION SUBDUED
    --------------------------

    ¶5.  In September, consumer prices increased 1.3 percent
     (y/y) slightly higher than August's y/y increase of 1
     percent, and consumer prices excluding mortgages (CPIX)
     increased 3.7 percent well within the market expectations
     of 3.9 percent.  Increases in transport and food explained
     much of September's increase in prices while declines in
     housing and medical care and expenses offset the sharp
     increase in transport expenses.  Administered prices
     (price set by either government or official regulatory
     body rather than the market) continued to show strong
     growth, increasing by 7.4 percent in September.  Food
     inflation increased of 1.6 percent annually compared to
     1.4 percent in August.  So far, rain in South Africa has
     not been sufficient to plant, although increased imports
     can increase domestic food supplies.   Rising food costs
     and oil prices are potential future risks, although the
     current rand strength will mitigate the impact of
     increased inflation coming from imports.  Source:
     Standard Bank CPI Alert, October 27; Statistics SA Release
     P 0141.1 and Discussion Document, Administered Prices
     September 2004.

    EUROPEAN FIRM SURVEY OPTIMISTIC ON SA ECONOMY
    ---------------------------------------------

    ¶6.  The Bilateral Chamber Consultative Committee, an
     informal group of business chambers representing about
     3000 foreign companies with more than R360 billion ($58
     billion) investments in South Africa conducted a survey
     among 252 of its member companies from May to June 2004
     and its findings were presented to Parliament's Trade and
     Industry Portfolio Committee.  Germany, France, the UK,
     Italy, Sweden, the Netherlands and Finland were
     represented in the survey.   Of the companies that
     responded, 59 percent said developments in Zimbabwe had
     affected their businesses, while 79 percent rated
     government's HIV/AIDS policy as "bad to very bad".  In the
     recent survey, 78 percent of respondents found the economy
     to be satisfactory to excellent, compared with 31 percent
     in 2002, and 95 percent expected it to remain the same or
     improve.  Sixty percent felt that investment would
     increase and 47 percent had created new jobs.   Fourteen
     percent of firms indicated intentions to disinvest, citing
     this as a natural process within globalization.  A
     reasonable return on investment, cheap electricity and a
     competitive marketplace were some of the positive economic
     features cited, though the rand's volatility had caused
     problems.  Levels of confidence in the government had
     strengthened considerably, with 53 percent expressing
     increased confidence, compared with only 32 percent in
     ¶2002.  Relative confidence was expressed in the future of
     a market-driven economy (70 percent), balanced taxation
     (53 percent), democracy (46 percent), political leadership
     (34 percent), and equal opportunities for foreign business
     (32 percent).  However, significant concern was expressed
     over corruption, the competence of the civil service,
     inflexible labor regulations and crime and violence.
     There was strong pessimism about the accountability of
     trade unions, labor productivity, investment incentives,
     and the free transfer of funds out of South Africa.  While
     the survey findings were positive in many areas, some ANC
     Members of Parliament, including committee chairman Ben
     Martins, latched on to the negative perceptions and
     expressed skepticism about its objectivity and the
     validity of the findings, questioning the reasons for
     including question about Zimbabwe on the survey and
     arguing that Zimbabwe was no different to any other
     African country.  Source:  Business Day, October 25.
    PRODUCER PRICES REMAIN LOW
    --------------------------

    ¶7.  The producer price index (PPI) increased 1.4 percent
     in September, lower than the Reuters consensus view of 1.8
     percent.  The main contributors to September's rise were
     increases in the prices of petroleum and coal products as
     well as the prices of basic metals.  While oil prices are
     still high, the rand maintained its strength, averaging
     R6.5 per dollar in September.  The rand has strengthened
     further in October, offsetting some of the inflationary
     impact of rising oil prices.  Domestic producer prices
     increased by 2.4 percent while imported producer prices
     declined by 1.7 percent.  Lower electricity prices,
     declining by 28 percent as Eskom switched from higher
     winter prices to summer, contributed to September's
     moderation in producer inflation.  Source:  Business
     Report, October 29; Standard Bank PPI Alert, October 29.

    FRAZER

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