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### Viewing cable 04PRETORIA4529, OCTOBER 8 SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04PRETORIA4529 | 2004-10-08 14:48 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Pretoria

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    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 004529

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR AF/S/JDIFFILY; AF/EPS; EB/IFD/OMA
    USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/MAC/AME/OA/DIEMOND
    TREASURY FOR OAISA/BARBER/WALKER/JEWELL
    USTR FOR COLEMAN
    LONDON FOR GURNEY; PARIS FOR NEARY

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EINV EFIN ETRD BEXP KTDB PGOV SF
    SUBJECT:  OCTOBER 8 SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWS

    REF:  PRETORIA 4503

     SUMMARY
     -------

     ¶1. Summary.  Each week, USEmbassy Pretoria publishes
     an economic newsletter based on South African press
     reports.  Comments and analysis do not necessarily
     reflect the opinion of the U.S. Government.  Topics
     of this week's newsletter include September Motor
     Vehicle Sales, Update on Trade Conditions,
     Residential Property Prices, Increased Funding to
     Facilitate BEE Finance Charter; Reserve Bank Issues
     Financial Stability Review; South Africa Drops in
     Global Investment Rankings; Cabinet Recommends
     Published Administered Price Index; and July Retail
     Sales.  End Summary

     SEPTEMBER MOTOR VEHICLES CONTINUE HIGH GROWTH
     ---------------------------------------------

     ¶2.  Encouraged by a 2003 5.5 percent reduction in
     interest rates and an additional mid-August 2004 0.5
     percentage point reduction, new car sales should post
     a record sales year.  According to the National
     Association of Automobile Manufacturers (NAAMSA),
     September sales of motor vehicles increased by 22.7
     percent (y/y), the second highest monthly increase on
     record.  New car sales increased 21.2 percent in
     September, with 1,164 new passenger cars being sold
     per day compared to August's daily average of 1,117
     and 961 in September 2003.  Compared to September
     2003, year-to-date sales have been 20 percent higher.
     Medium and heavy commercial vehicles also posted
     strong year-to-date growth at 18.9 percent.  Nico
     Vermeulen, NAAMSA's director, expects that 2004 new
     vehicle sales should reach an all-time record of
     455,000 vehicles.  Note Business Report, October 5;
     Standard Bank Motor Alert, October 4 Endnote

     TRADE CONDITIONS STILL UPBEAT
     -----------------------------

     ¶3.    Both the South African Trade Management Indices
     and the South African Chamber of Commerce business
     confidence index still indicate positive growth
     expectations in the near future.  The South African
     Trade Management Indices, measuring both trade
     activity and expectations, indicate that September's
     activity and short-run expectations are roughly the
     same as August's and still positive.  The trade
     activity index measures the monthly trading
     conditions, while the trade expectations describes
     expected activity in the next six months.  Eight
     components (sales volumes, new orders, order backlog,
     supplier deliveries, inventories, selling prices,
     purchasing prices and employment) make up both the
     trade activity and expectations indices.  September's
     total trading activity index registered at the
     threshold value of 50:  above (below) which trading
     conditions have improved (deteriorated).  All
     components but employment improved in September,
     implying that no new jobs were created in September.
     Since the beginning of this survey in 2000, the
     employment sub-component has rarely exceeded 50,
     confirming the endemic unemployment prevalent in
     South Africa.  The survey shows that inflation
     (selling prices) remained neutral (at 51 compared to
     49 in August); however input purchasing prices keep
     showing substantial increases (59 compared to
     August's 57).  Over the next six months, the
     September trade expectations index supports a
     continued optimistic sales forecast at 63 (compared
     to August's 64) with all but one components
     registering above 50.  Sales volumes and new orders
     show the highest expectations of increasing over the
     next six months, in line with increasing economic
     growth later in 2004.  The South African Chamber of
     Business's (SACOB) business confidence index
     increased 3.1 points in September to 130.9 with eight
     of its 13 components improving in September.  The
     index reached its highest level in September, with
     inflation and interest rates relatively low and the
     rand more stable in September.  Note Business Day,
     Business Report, October 6; Standard Bank SATMI
     October 5 Endnote

     RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICES STRONG BUT LEVELING
     --------------------------------------------- --

     ¶4.  According to data collected from the Deeds
     Office, house prices may have slowed in Q2 2004, but
     this data is often revised substantially and the
     slowdown in housing prices will need confirmation by
     other sources.  National housing prices, both nominal
     and real, are increasing at a record level of over 30
     percent, as measured using a three-month moving
     average.  However, recent increases have leveled off.
     Prices for housing financed by Standard Bank
     (including mortgages with assessment values up to R1
     million or $154,000) seem to show the same leveling-
     off trend, with prices increasing 20 percent over the
     past three months.  The prices of existing houses
     have increased substantially more than new homes.
     The national affordability index, based on
     installment to income ratio (calculated as mortgage
     payments using the median national house price and
     the prime rate, over per capita disposable income),
     is still relatively low compared to the 1990s.  Note
     Business Report, October 6; Standard Bank Residential
     Property Note, October 5 Endnote

     INCREASED FUNDING TO FINANCE BEE FINANCE CHARTER
     --------------------------------------------- ---

     ¶5.  Banks, life insurers and pensions will commit
     R122.5 billion (USD19 billion, using 6.5 rands per
     dollar) over five years to fund black economic
     empowerment (BEE) in SA.  If accepted at the first
     charter council meeting next week, finance companies
     will invest 60 percent more money than the R75
     billion earmarked when the charter was signed a year
     ago.  This will also be the largest single investment
     in empowerment finance, more than the R100 billion
     committed by mining companies and the R10 billion set
     aside by government.  This R122.5 billion is
     allocated into five areas:  (1) R50 billion for black
     empowerment deals; (2) R42 billion to provide
     financing for low-cost housing; (3) R25 billion to
     finance infrastructure projects in rural areas; (4)
     R4.1 billion for small black business; and (5) R1.4
     billion for financing black agriculture.  The charter
     was launched in 2003, but announcements of financial
     sector targets were delayed because of disagreements
     between the Banking Council, representing South
     Africa's banks, and the Association of Black
     Securities and Investment Professionals.  Companies
     will be expected to provide a portion of the R122.5
     billion according to market share of investable
     assets.  REFTEL PRETORIA 4503 Note Business Day,
     October 6 Endnote

     RESERVE BANK ISSUES FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW
     --------------------------------------------- -

     ¶6.  The South African Reserve Bank issued its
     biannual Financial Stability Review, highlighting
     inflation and financial risks facing South Africa,
     one week before the Monetary Policy Committee meets
     (October 14) to decide whether interest rates should
     be changed.  Increasing oil prices presented the
     largest risk to inflation and global economic
     recovery.  A strong rand has cushioned South Africa
     from much of the effects of higher oil prices,
     although the rand has depreciated 1.1 percent in
     September and domestic gasoline prices have risen 37
     rand cents per liter since August.  The review also
     highlighted the importance of providing banking
     services to the two-thirds of South Africans who do
     not have banking accounts, but urged that the adopted
     policies be well conceived.  "Unsound policy
     decisions or financial sector initiatives to broaden
     access have the potential of posing a threat to the
     integrity of the formal financial sector."  Note
     Business Report, Business Day, October 7 Endnote

     SOUTH AFRICA DROPS IN GLOBAL INVESTMENT RANKINGS
     --------------------------------------------- ---

     ¶7.  The 2004 annual AT Kearney Foreign Policy
     globalization index ranked South Africa 49th out of
     62 countries as a destination for foreign investment,
     a drop of 11 places and behind Botswana, Nigeria and
     Uganda.  The countries surveyed in 2002 account for
     96 percent of the world's gross domestic product and
     84 percent of the population.  South Africa ranked
     low in the personal contact category, which includes
     cross-border communications, because of the high cost
     of international telecommunications and the low
     levels of remittance and personal transfers.
     Internet usage is ahead other African countries, but
     below most other developed countries.  Tourism,
     political engagement, and technological integration
     were areas where South Africa ranked between 35 and
     37 on the scale.  Note This Day, October 7 Endnote

     CABINET RECOMMENTS PUBLISHED ADMINISTERED PRICE INDEX
     --------------------------------------------- --------

     ¶8.  The cabinet recommended that Statistics SA
     (StatsSA) monitor and publish its administered price
     index on a monthly basis.  StatsSA estimates that
     increases in prices regulated by the government
     account for 16 percent of overall consumer prices and
     18 percent of consumer prices when mortgage payments
     are omitted.  Prices that are set by the government
     include water, electricity, paraffin, gasoline,
     public hospitals charges, freight, telephone calls
     and postage.  StatsSA has proposed two approaches to
     compiling the index, one limited to prices actually
     set by government and the other including VAT and TV
     license fees.  For the latest monthly price release,
     StatsSA included administered prices (regulated by
     both government and state-owned enterprises) and
     found that they rose by more than the targeted
     inflation range of 3 to 6 percent.  During August,
     StatsSA estimated that administered prices using CPIX
     (excluding mortgages) increased by 6.3 percent while
     administered prices in overall consumer prices
     increased 6.8 percent.  The cabinet agreed that price
     setting should take into account inflation targets,
     as well as efficiency, equity objectives and long-run
     demand and supply projections.  Note Business Day,
     This Day, October 7 Endnote

     JULY RETAIL SALES INCREASE BY 15.5 PERCENT
     ------------------------------------------

     ¶9.  On an annual basis, retail sales grew by 15.5
     percent, showing the underlying strength in consumer
     demand that is driving South African economic growth.
     Adjusted for inflation, retail sales increased by
     11.7 percent in July.  Consumers continued to take on
     new debt as the private sector credit extension
     increased by 6 percent in July, in addition to an
     11.3 percent increase in money supply.  So far, the
     strong rand has shielded the economy from
     inflationary pressures, allowing the Reserve Bank to
     cut interest rates in August.  Whether the Reserve
     Bank will cut interest rates at next week's Monetary
     Policy Committee meeting will depend on its view of
     future oil prices and wage settlements.  Note
     Standard Bank, Taking Stock, October 7; Business
     Report, October 8 Endnote

     FRAZER

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