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### Viewing cable 05CAIRO4374, EGYPT'S FY2005/06 BUDGET: A MAKEOVER

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05CAIRO4374 | 2005-06-12 11:30 | 2011-08-24 16:30 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Cairo

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 CAIRO 004374

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR NEA/ELA, NEA/RA, AND EB/IDF
    USAID FOR ANE/MEA MCCLOUD
    USTR FOR SAUMS
    TREASURY FOR MILLS/NUGENT/PETERS
    COMMERCE FOR 4520/ITA/ANESA/TALAAT

    SENSITIVE

    E.O.  12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EFIN ETRD EINV EG
    SUBJECT: EGYPT'S FY2005/06 BUDGET: A MAKEOVER

    -------
    Summary
    -------

    ¶1.  (U) On June 7 the People's Assembly passed the budget
    for fiscal year (FY) 2005/2006.  The new budget was drafted
    using the IMF Government Finance Statistics format, which
    allows for better use of fiscal tools and better assessment
    of the impact of fiscal policies on Egypt's economy.  Total
    expenditures in FY 05/06 are projected to reach LE 188.7
    billion and total revenues LE 130.2 billion, with a budget
    deficit of LE 58.5 billion or 9.3% of projected GDP.  The
    GOE will need LE 56.4 billion, or 9% of GDP, in net
    borrowing to finance its deficit.  The new budget format
    provides greater detail regarding revenues and expenses,
    including itemization of direct and indirect subsidies and
    expenditures previously categorized simply as "off-budget"
    expenses.  The new format directly addresses local and
    international concerns regarding GOE fiscal transparency and
    the need to continue reforms to support economic growth.
    End summary

    ------------------------------
    Parliament Approves GOE Budget
    ------------------------------

    ¶2.  (U) On June 7 the Egyptian parliament approved the draft
    GOE budget for FY 2005/2006 (July 1, 2005 to June 30, 2006),
    which was unveiled by the Ministry of Finance (MOF) in late
    May.  Projected government expenditures in the approved
    budget are LE 188.7 billion, up 17.9% from the current FY
    2004/2005.  Projected revenues are LE 130.2 billion, up 11%
    from the current FY.  The projected deficit is LE 58.5
    billion, or 9.3% of the projected FY 05/06 GDP of LE 629
    billion, a slight decrease from the current FY deficit of
    10.3% of GDP.  Parliament increased by LE 860 million the
    funding allocated for education, health and utilities
    programs.  President Mubarak is expected to sign the budget
    before July 1, after which it will be published in the
    Official Gazette.  MOF also intends to publish the new
    budget on its website.

    ¶3.  (U) In drafting the budget, MOF used, for the first
    time, the IMF Government Finance Statistics (GFS) 2001
    system, an international standard system that significantly
    improves the budget's transparency.  Parliament cleared the
    way for use of this new system in April 2005, when it
    amended the law regulating the GOE budget.  The amendment
    allows for restructuring of the GOE budget to render it more
    consistent with IMF government accounting standards, a long-
    time concern of the international financial institutions and
    foreign donors, including the USG.  MOF intends to reformat
    prior year budgets using the new system and post the
    revisions on its website.  Until this is done, however,
    comparison of the FY05/06 budget with the current FY budget
    is only possible for a limited number of items.

    ¶4.  (U) Unlike the previous budget format, the new GFS
    system specifies all expense and revenue items for all
    government agencies (with the exception of the military).
    Details are provided for all transactions affecting
    financial and non-financial assets, as well as expenses
    previously classified simply as "off-budget" items.  Under
    the new system, indirect subsidies are also now clearly
    identifiable, as details must be provided for all government
    agency expenditures.  Unlike the previous format, which
    broke the overall deficit into three distinct tiers and made
    it difficult to assess the GOE's financing needs, the new
    system produces an aggregate monetary deficit figure.  This
    makes it easier to determine net government borrowing,
    project future expenses and revenues based on past
    performance, and quantify the impact of fiscal policies on
    government finances and the national economy.

    -------------------------------------------
    Egypt's Statement of Government Operations
    -------------------------------------------

    ¶5.  (U) Revenues:  Total revenues in FY05/06 are projected
    to reach LE 130.2 billion, compared with LE 102.5 billion in
    FY04/05, an increase of 27%.  Revenues include LE 81.6
    billion from taxes, up 21.5% from the actual preliminary
    figures for FY04/05.  (Note:  This is based on the
    assumption that macroeconomic reforms will increase the
    growth rate to 5%, thereby increasing the tax base and
    offsetting the reduction in the marginal tax rate enacted in
    a new tax law, which will be reported septel.  End note); LE
    2.9 billion from foreign and domestic grants; and LE 45.7
    billion from other revenues.  The breakdown of the
    government's tax income includes LE 40.9 billion from
    general income tax, LE 25.5 billion from sales tax, LE 8.99
    billion from customs and LE 6.3 billion from other tax
    sources, all constituting 62.7% of total revenues.  Foreign
    and domestic grants, in the form of direct transfers to the
    budget, remain relatively stable, averaging LE 1.68 billion
    in both FY04/05 and FY05/06.  Foreign and domestic grants
    for investment purposes dropped from LE 3.4 billion in
    FY04/5 to LE 2.9 billion in FY05/06.  Other revenues include
    proceeds from several economic entities, including the
    Petroleum Authority, Suez Canal Authority and the Central
    Bank of Egypt.  The Petroleum Authority is expected to
    transfer LE 12.6 billion to the general budget in FY05/06,
    compared with LE 6.5 billion in FY 04/05.  The increase is
    largely due to re-categorizing of energy subsidies in the
    new budget format.  Energy subsidies were previously
    identified as expenses of the Petroleum Authority, thereby
    reduced that entity's profits.  The subsidies are now
    categorized as general GOE subsidies.

    ¶6.  (U) Expenses:  Total expenses for FY05/06 are LE 188.7
    billion, up 17.9% from LE 160 billion in FY04/05.  Expenses
    include LE 46.7 billion for compensation of public
    employees, a 14% from FY04/05.  (Note:  In what appears to
    be an election year move, the GOE has announced a 30% pay
    raise for public employees, substantially exceeding the
    normal 10% annual increase.  End note.)  LE 13.2 billion is
    allocated for Use of Goods and Services acquired by the GOE
    to provide public goods and services; LE 42.6 billion for
    interest payments, up 12.4% from FY04/05; LE 50.6 billion
    for subsidies, social benefits and grants; LE 18.2 billion
    for other expenses; and LE 17.4 billion for purchase of non-
    financial assets, also known as investments, which will
    decrease by 14% compared to FY04/05.  The decrease in
    investment spending is likely due to the GOE's move to rely
    more on private sector investment to stimulate the economy.
    The subsidies, grants and social benefits item includes, for
    the first time, details on direct and indirect subsidies for
    food and energy.  Direct subsidies totaled LE 15.6 billion
    in FY04/05 and will increase to LE 35.4 billion in FY05/06.
    Interest payments includes interest on domestic public debt
    of LE 38.4 billion; interest of LE 4.02 billion for external
    public debt; and LE 0.21 billion for expenses related to
    debt servicing.

    ¶7.  (U) Operating Balance/Deficit:  The comparison of
    revenues and expenses shows government revenues cover only
    69% of operating expenses, or 30% of GDP, while revenues
    constitute only 20.7% of GDP.  The deficit resulting from
    the shortage in revenues totals LE 58.5 billion, or 9.3% of
    the projected GDP for FY05/06.  In the GFS system, the
    deficit is also known as the government's Operating Balance,
    which reflects the ongoing stability of the government's
    operations.

    ¶8.  (U) Deficit Financing:  The GFS system also requires
    calculation of the net acquisition of financial and non-
    financial assets (i.e., net borrowing), which is projected
    at LE 1.73 billion for FY05/06 budget.  This amount is added
    to the general deficit, increasing the total to LE 60.3
    billion or 9.6% of GDP.  Total financing needs for FY05/06
    are projected at LE 77.8 billion, mainly coming in the form
    of loans from the National Investment Bank (LE 14.3
    billion), external loans (LE 0.91 billion), and Treasury
    bills and bonds (LE 61.7 billion).  The GOE's net borrowing
    needs are then calculated by subtracting LE 3 billion in
    projected proceeds from privatization of public companies in
    FY 05/06 and LE 20.5 billion in public debt payments
    throughout the year from total financing needs, yielding a
    net borrowing need of LE 57.3 billion, or 9.1% of GDP.

    -----------------
    Policy Objectives
    -----------------

    ¶9.  (U) During his presentation of the budget to parliament,
    Minister of Finance Youssef Bhutros Ghali (YBG) stated that
    the FY 05/06 budget was not only more transparent, but also
    seriously addressed the economic problems facing Egypt,
    including the need to increase efficiency, decentralize
    fiscal policy, encourage investments, stabilize prices,
    create jobs and improve services while focusing on sectors
    with a comparative advantage.  With this aim in mind, YBG
    said the budget sets out three specific policy objectives:

    - Growth and achievement of GOE fiscal targets.  The budget
    set a target growth rate of 6% for FY05/06, while reducing
    inflation to 6-7% by increasing investment and employment.
    Social programs remain intact to protect low-income earners
    and provide basic services, but spending priorities are
    designed to ensure, in the medium term, continued growth,
    price stability and rational management of the deficit and
    public debt.

    - Assessment of the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policies.
    The new budget format allows the GOE to better identify
    revenue and expense items that directly affect economic
    activity and production of goods and services.  Calculation
    of the net balance of financial and non-financial assets
    also allows for assessment of the effect of public spending
    on the deficit and ultimately the GOE's need for deficit
    financing from the banking sector, CBE or other sources.

    - Modernization of fiscal policy tools.  Restructuring of
    the GOE budget complements the recent customs and tax
    reforms, which were designed to improve domestic and
    external competitiveness.

    --------
    Comment:
    --------

    ¶10.  (SBU) In line with the GOE's recent agreement to
    publish IMF Article IV, the new budget brings the GOE one
    step closer to meeting international standards for fiscal
    transparency.  Local analysts are generally positive about
    the new budget and the fact that the GFS format allows the
    GOE, and outside observers, to actually assess the outcome
    of the GOE's fiscal policies.  This will certainly
    facilitate the ongoing World Bank public expenditure review
    by helping to identify areas in which further reform is
    needed.  Indeed, the budget appears designed to consolidate
    the reforms already made under the Nazif administration and
    set the stage for continued reform, particularly in the area
    of subsidies.  One local private sector economist noted that
    by clearly identifying subsidies, the GOE will be better
    able to make the case to the Egyptian public that spending
    on subsidies is excessive and in need of reform.

    ¶11.  (SBU) Despite the increase in transparency, however,
    the new budget has its limitations.  Specifically, it does
    not disclose military spending, which accounts for a large
    percentage of annual expenses.  In not disclosing the
    details of military spending, another set of subsidies,
    namely those to military personnel and their families, is
    not specified.  Given the perhaps overly optimistic
    projection of revenues for FY 05/06, reform of large
    expenditures, such as subsidies, is badly needed to control
    an already large deficit.  Such reforms, however, will
    likely have to wait until after this year's elections.  End
    comment.

    ---------------------------------------
    Draft Budget As Presented to Parliament
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶12. (U)

    (LE Billion)                                    Projected
                              Budget     Budget    % Change

    Fiscal Years             2004/2005  2005/2006
    --------------------------------------------- ------------

    Expenses,                  160.00     188.67    17.92
     Including:
     Wages and Compensation     41.00      46.70    11.80
     Use of Goods and Services   9.94      13.24    33.20
     Interest                   38.43      42.61    10.88
     Subsidies, Social Benefits
      And Grants                29.32      50.55    72.41
     Other Expenses             21.05      18.19   (13.40)
     Purchase of Non-Financial
      Assets                    20.26      17.40   (14.15)

    Revenues,                   102.46     130.15   27.03
     Including:
     Taxes                      71.21      81.61    14.60
     Grants                      2.90       2.86    (1.38)
     Other Revenues             28.35      45.68    61.13

    Deficit (Operating Balance) 57.54      58.52

    GDP                        558.00     629.00
    Deficit/GDP (%)              10.3        9.3

    Net Borrowing:
    Net Acquisition of Assets                1.73

    Total Deficit                           60.25
    Payment of Debt Installments            20.55
                                            -----
                                            80.80
    Privatization Proceeds                   3.00

    Financing Required                      77.80
     Covered by*:
     Loans from National Investment Bank    14.33
     External Debts to Finance Investments   0.91
     Borrowing using T- Bills and Bonds     61.71
    * Available information did not indicate how the
    additional LE 850 million will be financed.

    New Financing Needs                     77.80
    Payment of Debt Installments            20.55

    Net Borrowing                           57.25
    Net Borrowing/GDP(%)                     9.11

    ------------------------------
    Administrative Classifications
    ------------------------------

    ¶13. (U)

                FY04/05       Projected FY05/06

    Activities           Admin.  Municipal  Services  Total*

    Public
     Services   55.75    54.09   7.97        0.63     62.69
    (LE Billion)

    Defense
     And Nat'l
     Security   14.11    15.63    --        0.007     15.64

    Public Order
     And Public
     Security
     Affairs     7.52     7.90    --        0.41       8.31

    Economic
     Affairs    10.91     3.86   1.99       3.43       9.29

    Environment
     Protection  0.71     0.70    --        0.26       0.96

    Housing,
     Utilities/
     Communities 3.76     0.90   0.25       2.39       3.55

    Health
     Affairs     7.64     3.56   3.04       1.61       8.21

    Youth, Culture
     And Religious
     Affairs     5.45     4.95   0.45       0.92       6.32

    Education   22.69     4.01  14.46       6.22      24.69

    Social
     Protection 31.56    47.60   0.52       0.06      48.18

    Total       160.10   143.19  28.68      15.95     188.67
    * Available information did not indicate how the
    additional LE 850 million will be financed.
    GRAY

`