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### Viewing cable 00HARARE4810, ZIMBABWE'S POTENTIAL HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE NEEDS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
00HARARE4810 | 2000-08-30 07:31 | 2011-08-24 16:30 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Harare

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

                               UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ9502

    PAGE 01        HARARE  04810  01 OF 03  300750Z
    ACTION AID-00

    INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    AGRE-00  CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00
          EB-00    EUR-00   UTED-00  FDRE-01  TEDE-00  IO-00    MMP-00
          DCP-01   OIC-02   IRM-00   TRSE-00  SAS-00     /004W
                      ------------------7F8EA1  300750Z /38
    FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
    TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6963
    AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY GABORONE
    INFO USMISSION GENEVA
    AMEMBASSY ROME
    SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 004810

    SIPDIS

    AIDAC

    USAID FOR BHR/OFDA FOR B. SANFORD, M. ROGERS; BHR/FFP FOR
    C.W.T. HAGELMAN3, B. VOGLER; A/AID FOR R. MCCALL; DAA/AFR FOR
    ¶V. NEWTON; AFR/SA FOR N. NEWMAN, C. PALMA; AFR/SD FOR W.
    WHELAN; NAIROBI FOR BHR/OFDA/ARO FOR G. GOTTLIEB; STATE FOR
    AF/S KRAFT; GABORONE FOR RCSA, R. MORTON; GENEVA PLEASE PASS
    TO UNOCHA; ROME PLEASE PASS TO FODAG, PRETORIA PASS TO AG MIN
    RHELM

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EAID EAGR
    SUBJECT:  ZIMBABWE'S POTENTIAL HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE NEEDS

    REF: HARARE 4085

    ¶1. SUMMARY:  THIS IS A USAID/BHR ACTION REQUEST (SEE PARA
    10.).  DUE TO A VARIETY OF FACTORS - INCLUDING CYCLONE ELINE,
    THE COMMERCIAL FARM INVASIONS, THE GOVERNMENT'S 'FAST-TRACK'
    RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE - ZIMBABWE IS
    FACING POTENTIALLY SERIOUS FOOD SECURITY PROBLEMS AND
    HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE NEEDS OVER THE SHORT, MEDIUM AND
    LONGER-TERM. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SITUATION, SEVERAL DONOR
    EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS/CONTINGENCY PLANNING INITIATIVES ARE
    NOW UNDERWAY.  MISSION REQUESTS BHR SHORT-TERM TECHNICAL
    EXPERTISE TO ASSIST IT IN ENGAGING IN THESE ACTIVITIES TO
    BETTER ASSESS THE PROBABILITY AND EXTENT OF THE EMERGING
    HUMANITARIAN THREAT IN ZIMBABWE, AND ANY REQUIRED MULTI-DONOR
    (INCLUDING U.S.G.) RESPONSE.  END SUMMARY.

    ¶2. PROBLEM STATEMENT: SEVERAL RECENT EVENTS HAVE LED TO
    EMERGING POTENTIALLY SERIOUS HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE NEEDS IN
    ZIMBABWE.  THESE INCLUDE:

    --THE AFTERMATH OF CYCLONE ELINE:  DESPITE CONSIDERABLE
    RELIEF EFFORTS TO DATE, APPROXIMATELY 30,000 PEOPLE REMAIN
    DISPLACED WITHIN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZIMBABWE, WHERE SOME
    122,000 HECTARES OF CROPS WERE LOST OR SEVERELY AFFECTED AS A
    RESULT OF THE FEBRUARY FLOODS.  WITH THE IMPENDING RAINY
    SEASON, THERE IS AN URGENT NEED TO QUOTE SETTLE UNQUOTE THESE
    PEOPLE, AND PROVIDE THEM WITH MINIMUM SHELTER AND INPUT
    PACKAGES FOR THE UPCOMING AGRICULTURAL SEASON.

                           UNCLASSIFIED

    PAGE 03        HARARE  04810  01 OF 03  300750Z
    --THE IMPACT OF THE FARM INVASIONS AND THE GOVERNMENT'S
    ONGOING 'FAST-TRACK' RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM:  ALTHOUGH ACCURATE
    NUMBERS ARE DIFFICULT TO COME BY, ACCORDING TO THE GENERAL
    AGRICULTURAL AND PLANTATION WORKER'S UNION (GAPWUZ), SOME
    5,000-10,000 FARM WORKERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN DISPLACED DURING
    THE PAST SIX MONTHS OF UNREST IN THE COMMERCIAL FARMING
    AREAS.  UNDER ONGOING GOVERNMENT PLANS TO ACQUIRE 804 FARMS,
    AS MANY AS 45,000 WORKERS' JOBS ARE IN IMMEDIATE JEOPARDY
    (PRESUMABLY INCLUDING THE 5,000-10,000 NOTED ABOVE).  NOTE:
    THESE ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 55 WORKERS
    PER FARM (BASED ON THE LOCATIONS OF THE CURRENT LIST OF FARMS
    DESIGNATED FOR RESETTLEMENT).  THE ACTUAL NUMBER OF WORKERS
    PER FARM VARIES CONSIDERABLY BY AGRO-ECOLOGICAL REGION.
    HENCE, THESE AVERAGE ESTIMATES COULD VARY CONSIDERABLY,
    DEPENDING UPON THE FINAL GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF THE FARMS
    ACTUALLY RESETTLED.  END NOTE. WITH AN AVERAGE FAMILY SIZE OF
    5-6 PERSONS (WHICH ALSO VARIES BY REGION), THESE FIGURES
    TRANSLATE INTO BETWEEN 25,000-60,000 PEOPLE DISPLACED NOW,
    AND APPROXIMATELY 250,000-300,000 PEOPLE IN IMMEDIATE
    JEOPARDY.

    IN ADDITION, IF STATED GOVERNMENT PLANS TO ACQUIRE AND
    RESETTLE 3,000+ FARMS BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR ARE REALIZED
    (A LOGISTICAL IMPOSSIBILITY IN OUR VIEW), THESE NUMBERS COULD
    SWELL SIGNIFICANTLY TO AS MANY AS 350,000 WORKERS (OR ALMOST
    1 MILLION PEOPLE).  ONLY AN ESTIMATED 30% OF THESE FARM
    WORKERS HAVE HOMES IN THE COMMUNAL LANDS.  THEREFORE, WITH NO
    STATED PLANS FOR THEIR INCLUSION INTO THE RESETTLEMENT
    PROGRAM, THERE IS NO PLACE FOR THESE DISPLACED PEOPLE TO GO.
    AS A RESULT, "THEY ARE JUST WANDERING ABOUT" (GAPWUZ).  AN
    ADDITIONAL ESTIMATED 40,000-60,000 FARM WORKERS AND CASUAL
                           UNCLASSIFIED

    PAGE 04        HARARE  04810  01 OF 03  300750Z
    LABORERS ARE FACING REDUCED OR NO PAY AS A RESULT OF REDUCED
    WORK OPPORTUNITIES DUE TO THE DISRUPTIONS TO FARMING CAUSED
    BY THE OCCUPATIONS AND UNREST.  IN TRADITIONALLY FOOD
    INSECURE AREAS, CASUAL LABOR ALLOWED THE POOR TO OBTAIN CASH
    INCOME THAT HELPED PROVIDE A SAFETY NET IN THESE AREAS.  THIS
    COPING MECHANISM, TOO, HAS NOW BEEN DISRUPTED DUE TO THE
    CONTINUED FARM INVASIONS.

    --THE PRE AND POST-ELECTION VIOLENCE:  THIS CONTINUING
    POLITICAL VIOLENCE HAS DISPLACED AN ESTIMATED 12,000 PEOPLE
    FROM LARGELY RURAL AND PERI-URBAN AREAS.  THERE ARE FEW
    SUPPORT STRUCTURES AVAILABLE FOR THESE PEOPLE AS WELL.

    --URBAN VULNERABILITY: ONGOING GOVERNMENT RETRENCHMENTS AND
    INCREASED BUSINESS CLOSURES DUE TO THE CURRENT MACRO-ECONOMIC
    CRISIS ARE RESULTING IN RISING UN-/UNDER-EMPLOYMENT BEYOND
    THE ESTIMATED 50% NATIONAL AVERAGE.  THIS YEAR ALONE, FOR
    EXAMPLE, 200,000 JOBS HAVE ALREADY BEEN LOST, WITH 400,000
    ADDITIONAL URBAN JOBS IN REAL JEOPARDY BY THE END THE YEAR.
    THIS SITUATION COULD WORSEN SIGNIFICANTLY, IF CURRENT THREATS
    TO EXTEND THE INVASION/OCCUPATION TACTICS TO URBAN AND PERI-

                           UNCLASSIFIED

                               UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ9503

    PAGE 01        HARARE  04810  02 OF 03  300751Z
    ACTION AID-00

    INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    AGRE-00  CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00
          EB-00    EUR-00   UTED-00  FDRE-01  TEDE-00  IO-00    MMP-00
          DCP-01   OIC-02   IRM-00   TRSE-00  SAS-00     /004W
                      ------------------7F8EA7  300751Z /38
    P 300731Z AUG 00
    FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
    TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6964
    AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY GABORONE
    INFO USMISSION GENEVA
    AMEMBASSY ROME
    SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

    UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 004810

    SIPDIS

    AIDAC

    USAID FOR BHR/OFDA FOR B. SANFORD, M. ROGERS; BHR/FFP FOR
    C.W.T. HAGELMAN3, B. VOGLER; A/AID FOR R. MCCALL; DAA/AFR FOR
    ¶V. NEWTON; AFR/SA FOR N. NEWMAN, C. PALMA; AFR/SD FOR W.
    WHELAN; NAIROBI FOR BHR/OFDA/ARO FOR G. GOTTLIEB; STATE FOR
    AF/S KRAFT; GABORONE FOR RCSA, R. MORTON; GENEVA PLEASE PASS
    TO UNOCHA; ROME PLEASE PASS TO FODAG, PRETORIA PASS TO AG MIN
    RHELM

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EAID EAGR
                           UNCLASSIFIED

    PAGE 02        HARARE  04810  02 OF 03  300751Z
    SUBJECT:  ZIMBABWE'S POTENTIAL HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE NEEDS

    URBAN BUSINESSES ARE PUT INTO EFFECT.

    AT THE SAME TIME, PRICES FOR ALL BASIC COMMODITIES ARE
    CONTINUING TO ESCALATE FUELED BY THE LONGSTANDING 50+%
    INFLATION RATE AND HARD CURRENCY SHORTAGES.  IN JULY, FOR
    EXAMPLE, THE PRICE OF PARAFFIN (USED FOR COOKING IN MOST
    URBAN HOUSEHOLDS) INCREASED BY 128%, PETROL - 25%, DIESEL -
    19%, COMMUTER (BUS) FARES - 25%, BREAD - 10% AND (IN AUGUST)
    MEAT - 25%.  MOREOVER, FURTHER SIGNIFICANT PRICE INCREASES
    ARE EXPECTED AS THE CONTINUING FUEL PRICE INCREASES FILTER
    THROUGH THE SYSTEM, COMBINED WITH THE RECENT 30% CURRENCY
    DEVALUATION AND SIGNIFICANT PENDING WHEAT SHORTAGES (SEE
    BELOW).  IN FACT, SOME ANALYSTS PREDICT THAT INFLATION MAY
    REACH AS HIGH AS 80% BY THE END OF THE YEAR.  THIS SITUATION
    IS INCREASING THE VULNERABILITY OF THOSE WHO ARE RELIANT ON
    MARKETS FOR THE PURCHASE OF THEIR BASIC SUPPLIES, IN MANY
    CASES, BEYOND ACCEPTABLE LIMITS, AS MANY FAMILIES CUT BACK TO
    TWO MEALS A DAY OR LESS.

    ¶3. FOOD SECURITY:  AS A RESULT OF A 'BUMPER' MAIZE HARVEST
    THIS PAST YEAR, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS OF FARM WORKERS
    AND CYCLONE VICTIMS NOTED ABOVE (AND A FEW OTHER POOR-HARVEST
    AREAS), FOOD SECURITY IN RURAL AREAS IS GENERALLY GOOD FOR
    THIS YEAR.  MAIZE PRICES IN URBAN AREAS AND AT THE ZIMBABWE
    AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY EXCHANGE (ZIMACE) HAVE ACTUALLY
    DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.  WITH AN EXPECTED
    SURPLUS OF SOME 600,000 MT THIS SEASON, THIS SITUATION IS NOT
    EXPECTED TO ALTER DRASTICALLY ANYTIME SOON.

                           UNCLASSIFIED

    PAGE 03        HARARE  04810  02 OF 03  300751Z
    ¶4. THE SITUATION IS NOT AS GOOD, HOWEVER, FOR WHEAT.  EVEN IN
    GOOD YEARS, ZIMBABWE IS AN IMPORTER OF HARD WHEAT FOR
    BLENDING WITH LOCAL PRODUCTION FOR MILLING PURPOSES AT ABOUT
    A 2:1/LOCAL:IMPORTED RATIO.  AS A RESULT OF FOREIGN CURRENCY
    SHORTAGES, HOWEVER, THE COUNTRY HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO IMPORT
    ITS ADDITIONAL WHEAT REQUIREMENTS THIS YEAR (I.E., ONLY
    87,000 MT WAS IMPORTED LAST YEAR FOR A LOCAL HARVEST OF
    320,000 MT).  ACCORDING TO THE CEREALS PRODUCERS' ASSOCIATION
    (CPA) OF ZIMBABWE, THIS SITUATION HAS RESULTED IN AN
    ESTIMATED 50,000 -100,000 MT SHORTFALL FOR THIS SEASON (UNTIL
    THIS YEAR'S WINTER WHEAT IS HARVESTED IN OCTOBER) THROUGH THE
    MORE RAPID DEPLETION OF AVAILABLE LOCAL STOCKS THAN WOULD
    NORMALLY BE THE CASE (IF THE SUPPLEMENTARY IMPORTED WHEAT WAS
    AVAILABLE FOR BLENDING PURPOSES).  AS A RESULT, WHEAT PRICES
    ARE INCREASING, WITH FORWARD BIDS FOR OCTOBER WHEAT AT ZIMACE
    INCREASING BY AS MUCH AS 54% (FROM MAY PRICES).

    ¶5. THESE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, AS LATE/REDUCED
    PLANTINGS DUE TO WET WEATHER AND THE FARM INVASIONS (THE BULK
    OF THE WINTER WHEAT IN ZIMBABWE IS GROWN ON THE PREDOMINANTLY
    WHITE-OWNED, IRRIGATED COMMERCIAL FARMS) IS EXPECTED TO
    RESULT IN A 20-30% REDUCTION IN THIS SEASON'S OCTOBER HARVEST
    (I.E., 250,000 MT VS. AN ESTIMATED 400,000+ MT ANNUAL
    CONSUMPTION REQUIREMENT).  WITH THE CONTINUING SEVERE
    FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ZIMBABWE WILL BE
    ABLE TO AFFORD THE IMPORTS REQUIRED TO ADDRESS THIS
    SIGNIFICANT PROJECTED WHEAT DEFICIT AS IT HAS IN RECENT
    YEARS.  WHILE SOME OF THIS SHORTFALL CAN/WILL BE MET THROUGH
    SUBSTITUTION OF RELATIVELY ABUNDANT MAIZE ('MEALIE MEAL') FOR
    WHEAT (BREAD) BY CONSUMERS, FLOUR AND BREAD PRICES ARE
    EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ESCALATE OVER THE COMING MONTHS.
                           UNCLASSIFIED

    PAGE 04        HARARE  04810  02 OF 03  300751Z
    THESE SHORTAGES/PRICE INCREASES WILL BE MOST SEVERELY FELT IN
    THE URBAN AREAS, WHERE CONSUMERS RELY MORE HEAVILY ON
    PURCHASED BREAD FOR THEIR DAILY FOOD SUPPLIES.  ALTHOUGH
    ESTIMATES VARY, THIS SITUATION COULD BECOME CRITICAL NEAR THE
    END OF THIS YEAR, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SERIOUS URBAN UNREST
    (SIMILAR TO THE FOOD RIOTS WHICH OCCURRED IN DECEMBER 1998).
    MOREOVER, OVER THE LONGER TERM, PROSPECTS ARE EVEN BLEAKER AS
    THE CONTINUING DISRUPTIONS AND GROWING DISLOCATIONS ON THE
    COMMERCIAL FARMS ARE EXPECTED TO SEVERELY IMPACT NEXT YEAR'S
    WHEAT HARVEST.

    ¶6. WITH THE NATIONAL POVERTY RATE ALREADY AROUND 70%, MOST
    ZIMBABWEANS ARE NO LONGER ABLE TO ABSORB THIS SEEMINGLY
    INTERMINABLE STREAM OF NEGATIVE ECONOMIC SHOCKS.  AND, WITH
    EMPTY COFFERS AND LITTLE/NO PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL
    INTERNATIONAL CREDIT, GOVERNMENT APPEARS POWERLESS TO BE ABLE
    TO MOUNT ANY EFFECTIVE RESPONSE TO THIS INCREASINGLY DIRE
    HUMANITARIAN THREAT.  NOTE:  EVEN NOW, THE GRAIN MARKETING
    BOARD (GMB) - THE GOVERNMENT'S MONOPOLY GRAIN TRADING
    PARASTATAL - IS UNABLE TO SOURCE THE FUNDS NECESSARY TO
    PURCHASE LAST YEAR'S MAIZE CROP FROM FARMERS.  THIS DELAY IS

                           UNCLASSIFIED

                               UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ9505

    PAGE 01        HARARE  04810  03 OF 03  300751Z
    ACTION AID-00

    INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AF-00    AGRE-00  CIAE-00  DODE-00  SRPP-00
          EB-00    EUR-00   UTED-00  FDRE-01  TEDE-00  IO-00    MMP-00
          DCP-01   OIC-02   IRM-00   TRSE-00  SAS-00     /004W
                      ------------------7F8EB3  300751Z /38
    P 300731Z AUG 00
    FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
    TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6965
    AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY GABORONE
    INFO USMISSION GENEVA
    AMEMBASSY ROME
    SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

    UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 004810

    SIPDIS

    AIDAC

    USAID FOR BHR/OFDA FOR B. SANFORD, M. ROGERS; BHR/FFP FOR
    C.W.T. HAGELMAN3, B. VOGLER; A/AID FOR R. MCCALL; DAA/AFR FOR
    ¶V. NEWTON; AFR/SA FOR N. NEWMAN, C. PALMA; AFR/SD FOR W.
    WHELAN; NAIROBI FOR BHR/OFDA/ARO FOR G. GOTTLIEB; STATE FOR
    AF/S KRAFT; GABORONE FOR RCSA, R. MORTON; GENEVA PLEASE PASS
    TO UNOCHA; ROME PLEASE PASS TO FODAG, PRETORIA PASS TO AG MIN
    RHELM

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EAID EAGR
                           UNCLASSIFIED

    PAGE 02        HARARE  04810  03 OF 03  300751Z
    SUBJECT:  ZIMBABWE'S POTENTIAL HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE NEEDS

    SERIOUSLY JEOPARDIZING NEXT YEAR'S AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AS
    THE RAINY SEASON APPROACHES AND FARMERS HAVE NO FUNDS/CREDIT
    TO PURCHASE THE NECESSARY INPUTS.  END NOTE.

    NOTE: OVER THE LONGER TERM, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IN RECENT
    TIMES ZIMBABWE HAS EXPERIENCED SEVERE (MAJOR, WIDESPREAD)
    DROUGHTS EVERY SEVERAL YEARS.  WITH AT LEAST AVERAGE RAINFALL
    FOR THE PAST THREE SEASONS, THE CHANCES FOR ANOTHER MAJOR
    DROUGHT EVENT ARE INCREASING EACH YEAR.  ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NO
    INFORMATION TO SUGGEST THAT A DROUGHT WILL OCCUR THIS YEAR,
    THE POTENTIAL HUMANITARIAN EFFECTS OF SUCH AN EVENT WOULD BE
    MOST SERIOUS, INDEED, ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
    CURRENT WIDESPREAD TURMOIL IN THE COUNTRY'S FARMING SECTOR.
    THE PROVERBIAL STRAW ON THE CAMEL'S BACK COMES TO MIND HERE.
    END NOTE.

    ¶7. MULTI-DONOR RESPONSE:  IN RESPONSE TO THIS EMERGING
    HUMANITARIAN CRISIS, SEVERAL DONORS HAVE EMBARKED ON
    EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS/CONTINGENCY PLANNING ACTIVITIES. THE
    MOST PROMINENT OF THESE ACTIVITIES IS THE UNITED NATIONS
    DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM'S (UNDP'S) INTER-AGENCY EFFORT AIMED AT
    CONTINGENCY PLANNING IN THE HEALTH AND NUTRITION, WATER AND
    SANITATION, FOOD (SECURITY) AND EDUCATION SECTORS.  ONGOING
    SINCE JULY, A FINAL REPORT ON THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN
    EARLY SEPTEMBER, AT WHICH TIME UNDP PLANS TO PRESENT THE PLAN
    - INCLUDING A SERIES OF AGENCY/SECTOR-SPECIFIC PROJECT
    PROPOSALS - TO OTHER DONORS FOR CONSIDERATION FOR SUPPORT.
    COMPLEMENTING THIS EFFORT, OVER THE MEDIUM-LONGER TERM, IS
    THE WORLD BANK'S (WB'S) PLANNED ENHANCED SOCIAL PROTECTION
                           UNCLASSIFIED

    PAGE 03        HARARE  04810  03 OF 03  300751Z
    PROGRAM AIMED AT ESTABLISHING A SOCIAL SAFETY NET FOR
    ZIMBABWE'S INCREASINGLY DESPERATE POPULATION.

    ¶8. MISSION IS INCREASINGLY CONCERNED WITH THIS RAPIDLY
    DETERIORATING HUMANITARIAN SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE.  FOR A
    VARIETY OF REASONS, ANY ASSISTANCE THE U.S.G. MIGHT OFFER IN
    ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION SHOULD BE PART OF A CONCERTED MULTI-
    DONOR RESPONSE.  ACCORDINGLY, IT IS IN OUR BEST INTEREST TO
    PARTICIPATE IN AND ENSURE A USEFUL AND SUCCESSFUL OUTCOME TO
    THE CURRENT U.N. AND WB-SPONSORED CONTINGENCY PLANNING
    ACTIVITIES.

    ¶9. IN ADDITION TO THE EMERGING HUMANITARIAN CRISIS, OTHER
    FACTORS - HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT, THE RECENT VIOLENCE, FUEL
    SHORTAGES AND INCREASING POLITICAL COMPETITION - ARE CREATING
    A POTENTIALLY COMBUSTIBLE COMBINATION.  IN RESPONSE, THE
    U.S.G. SHOULD ENGAGE IN A PREPAREDNESS AND MITIGATION
    PLANNING EXERCISE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

    ¶10. ACTION REQUEST: BASED ON THE ABOVE, MISSION REQUESTS
    USAID BUREAU OF HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE (BHR) ASSISTANCE IN
    PROVIDING THE SERVICES OF ONE/TWO OFFICE OF FOREIGN DISASTER
    ASSISTANCE (OFDA) AND/OR FOOD FOR PEACE (FFP) EXPERTS TO
    ZIMBABWE FOR AN APPROXIMATE TWO WEEK PERIOD IN MID-SEPTEMBER
    TO FACILITATE OUR EFFECTIVE PARTICIPATION AND INPUT INTO
    ONGOING IN-COUNTRY EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS/CONTINGENCY
    PLANNING ACTIVITIES. MORE SPECIFICALLY, THE PURPOSE OF THIS
    ASSISTANCE WOULD BE TO: 1) REVIEW THE RESULTS OF CURRENT ON-
    GOING IN-COUNTRY EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS/CONTINGENCY PLANNING
    ACTIVITIES (INCLUDING THE RESULTS OF THE CURRENT UNDP INTER-
    AGENCY CONTINGENCY PLANNING PROCESS AND THE STATUS OF THE
                           UNCLASSIFIED

    PAGE 04        HARARE  04810  03 OF 03  300751Z
    WB'S ENHANCED SOCIAL PROTECTION PROGRAM ACTIVITY, THE ANNUAL
    FAMINE EARLY WARNING SERVICE (FEWS) VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
    EXPECTED IN EARLY SEPTEMBER, AS WELL AS SIMILAR ON-GOING
    CONTINGENCY PLANNING EFFORTS BY SEVERAL LOCALLY-BASED PRIVATE
    VOLUNTARY ORGANIZATIONS); 2) PROVIDE AN INDEPENDENT,
    REALISTIC ASSESSMENT FOR THE U.S.G. OF THE LIKELY SHORT AND
    LONGER-TERM HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE NEEDS IN ZIMBABWE; 3)
    PROVIDE EXPERT U.S.G. INPUT INTO THE FINAL RECOMMENDED MULTI-
    DONOR RESPONSE TO THESE IDENTIFIED HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
    NEEDS; AND 4) (FOLLOWING DEPARTURE FROM POST) FACILITATE THE
    MISSION'S CONTINUING DIALOGUE ON THIS SUBJECT WITH CONCERNED
    USAID/W OFFICES AND OTHER AGENCIES (E.G., U.N. FOOD AND
    AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION (FAO), WFP, ETC.) FOR THE TIMELY
    PREPARATION AND INITIATION OF ANY AGREED UPON U.S.G.
    ASSISTANCE (AS PART OF A GREATER MULTI-DONOR EFFORT).
    MISSION WILL APPRECIATE YOUR TIMELY RESPONSE TO THIS REQUEST
    FOR ASSISTANCE.

    MCDONALD

                           UNCLASSIFIED

    >

`