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### Viewing cable 04FRANKFURT8717, Forecast for Germany: Moderate Growth, High

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04FRANKFURT8717 | 2004-10-08 10:55 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Frankfurt

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    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 FRANKFURT 008717

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    STATE FOR EUR PDAS, EB, EUR/AGS, AND EUR/ERA
    STATE PASS FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD
    STATE PASS NSC
    TREASURY FOR DAS LEE
    TREASURY ALSO FOR ICN COX, HULL
    PARIS ALSO FOR OECD
    TREASURY FOR OCC RUTLEDGE, MCMAHON

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EFIN EUN
    SUBJECT:  Forecast for Germany: Moderate Growth, High
    Deficits; Clear, Consistent Reform Efforts Still the Key

    T-IA-F-04-0023

    This cable is sensitive but unclassified.  Not/not for
    Internet distribution.

    ¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Our forecast for Germany shows moderate
    real GDP growth of 1.7% in 2005 after 1.8% in 2004.  The
    government deficit should top 4% of GDP this year, then
    decline to 3.5% in 2005, based on current policies.
    Persistent joblessness in western Germany, and even more so
    in the East, is a strong Government concern.  Typically
    German recovery is fueled by export growth that feeds back
    into investment, then employment, then consumption.  The
    investment link is the weakest this time around.
    Supplementary labor costs borne by enterprises, relatively
    high tax rates, and burdensome regulations are among
    impediments to investors.  These drawbacks seem to have
    become relatively more pronounced as investment options in
    central European countries continue to improve.  Fiscal
    policy has not produced the demand side effects anticipated,
    despite a deficit well beyond "restraints" of the EU
    Stability and Growth Pact. Perhaps a partial answer lies in
    the quality of public expenditure, which is consumed by
    social and financing costs and not investment.  Spending
    smarter while cutting taxes or social charges through
    coherent, consistent, and comprehensive reforms could help
    boost both investment and the government's bottom line.
    There is German public support for reform, but the discord
    among the country's political leaders as well as the round
    of state and local elections in the run-up to the 2006
    national campaign is sapping the government's will and
    ability to make the long-needed reforms.  End Summary

    Forecast: Moderate Growth in 2004 and 2005
    ------------------------------------------

    ¶2.  (SBU) Our recent forecast points to German real GDP
    growing by 1.7% in 2005 after an increase of 1.8% this year.
    Growth in both years will be mainly driven by exports.
    Softer growth in the Euro area next year will be compensated
    by a pick up in German domestic demand.

    Consumer Demand to Pick Up
    --------------------------

    ¶3. (SBU) In a typical German economic recovery, export
    growth triggers higher investment, raising employment,
    consumer confidence and retail sales.  The recovery we see
    this time around will by pass strong investment growth.
    Private consumption has been stagnating in 2003 and 2004 due
    to a slow rise in disposable income and a noticeably higher
    savings rate, up from 9.6% in 2000 to 11% in 2004.  Consumer
    confidence has been soft, employment declining, unemployment
    raising and high contributions to social security systems
    continuing.  Businesses blame uncertainty over Germany's
    economic outlook and confusion over the course of reforms
    for causing Germans to boost their already high level of
    savings. There may be a moderate up tick in 2005 consumption
    stemming from stronger growth in disposable income caused by
    lower income taxes (the last step of the income tax reform)
    and higher self-income.  However, current consumer behavior
    makes this more difficult than usual to predict.  Next
    year's boost to consumption should stem from stronger growth
    in disposable income caused by lower income taxes (the last
    step of the income tax reform) and higher self-employed
    income.

    Investment Weakness a Puzzle
    ----------------------------

    ¶4.  (SBU) Investment continues to be a partial puzzle.  The
    prolonged drag on overall investment by the construction
    sector, which accounts for 50% of all investment, will not
    disappear next year.  Machinery and equipment investment
    will rise 4.6% -- much better than recent years, barely
    pushing growth in overall investment activity past the 0.5%
    mark.  Recent en vogue explanations for poor investment
    performance include "credit crunch" and "outsourcing."
    Bundesbank officials argue that the rise in German overseas
    investment, which does not register in the available
    statistics, is financed by capital German firms are raising
    outside the Federal Republic.

    ¶5.  (SBU) The Bundesbank makes a credible argument that
    demand for loans is what is lacking, not supply.  With
    respect to outsourcing, it is true that share of imported
    materials in German exports has risen from around 30% in
    1995 to almost 39% in 2002.  This phenomenon has generated a
    heated debate on whether Germany has become a "bazaar
    economy," with industrial production hollowed out as
    investors make needed inputs in other countries.  A lower
    share of industrial output in overall economic activity,
    however, does not necessarily mean a decline in overall
    output.  That is, unless workers cannot find new jobs in
    other, equally or higher productive jobs such as in the
    service sector.  Unfortunately, that seems to be the case
    according to a McKinsey report cited by USB Warburg research
    economists.  While for each euro of outsourcing, the German
    economy gains only 79 cents, for each dollar of outsourcing
    the U.S. economy realizes 1.13 dollars.  The difference is
    that nearly 70% of the displaced workers in the U.S. found
    new jobs with higher productivity within six months. In
    Germany only 40% do.

    ¶6.  (SBU) There are some bright spots on the horizon that
    support even our modest pick up for investment in equipment
    and machinery.  Real interest rates stand at historically
    low levels, bank profitability is going up (suggesting a
    possible increased emphasis in lending to the less marginal
    credit cases) and wage rounds have yielded labor cost
    increases of only 1.5%.  Government efforts to reduce some
    of the institutional rigidities will help next year with
    labor market reform (Hartz IV, i.e., the merger of
    unemployment and social aid programs) and loosening of
    firing restrictions for small and medium-sized enterprises.
    Recent labor agreements add to some cautious optimism,
    resulting in longer hours and more flexible tariff wage
    contracts.  These can help constrain unit labor costs,
    bolstering Germany's price competitiveness.  These trends
    will be working against the headwind of managers doubting
    that the global recovery will continue next year, as
    suggested by recent sentiment indicators.

    Budget Deficits Continue
    ------------------------

    ¶7.  (SBU) A best-case scenario for 2005 puts the government
    deficit at 3.5% of GDP, more than spitting distance from the
    3% Maastricht mark.  The Finance Minister's "Project 3%"
    will be working full tilt to avoid the European Commission
    from cranking up the Stability and Growth Pact again - this
    time taking up Eichel on his own November 2004 pledge to get
    the deficit below 3% in 2005.

    ¶8.  (SBU) The 2005 budget is encumbered with several risks.
    Among these are high-expected revenues from planned
    privatization (15.5 billion euros) and the still-to-be-
    proven heavy truck highway toll (3 billion euros).  The
    costs of merging the unemployment benefit and social welfare
    systems is probably underestimated.  One welcomed feature
    for 2005 should be that the social security programs are
    unlikely to have to draw on the budget.

    ¶9.  (SBU) For 2004 the deficit is likely to top 4%.  Poor
    revenue performance from weak domestic demand is the primary
    reason.  Also, rosy revenue scenarios have not panned out as
    dreamed for the highway toll for heavy trucks (zero instead
    of 2.8 billion euros), Bundesbank profit (only 248 million
    euros instead of 3.5 billion euros) and tax amnesty (3-400
    million euros rather than 5 billion euros).

    Lower Prices and Gains In Employment
    ------------------------------------
    ¶10.  (SBU) German inflation will decline, despite current
    energy and raw material price rises, as no administrative
    price or tax hikes are expected and assuming oil prices
    moderate.  Labor market statistics will be difficult to
    interpret as 900,000 recipients of social welfare will have
    to register as unemployed to get the new unemployment
    benefits.  No reliable estimates exist as to how many of
    these are already so registered.  Some estimates suggest
    that the number of unemployed might increase by 300,000.
    Employment should increase slightly.  The unemployed should
    be attracted by mini-jobs that will allow them to boost
    their net income by retaining government benefits plus the
    earned income and should be deterred by the prospect of
    losing benefits if they do not accept a job offer.

    Investment and Government Demand Side Policies: A Closer
    --------------------------------------------- -----------
    Look
    ----

    ¶11.  (SBU) Investment weakness, a prominent feature of this
    forecast, deserves a bit of a closer look.  Recent wage
    settlements have highlighted the gulf between what workers
    contribute to production and what employers pay.  USB
    Warburg economic research estimates that for the engineering
    industry in 2003 pay for value-added labor was 30,425 euros.
    The firm then paid an extra 37.4% for non-working days (paid
    holidays) and bonuses (the "thirteenth month").  Compulsory
    contributions to social security added another 27.2%,
    pension schemes and other supplementary costs accounted for
    another 13.2%.  Total wage costs amounted to 50,095 euros or
    177.8% of the pay for value added labor.  Wage agreements
    and government reforms could help close a portion of this
    divide that contributes to make Germany a relatively less
    attractive investment location.

    ¶12.  (SBU) The recent OECD Survey of Germany also points to
    high corporate taxes.  It cites a study by the German
    Council of Economic Experts based on 2003 tax codes showing
    that Germany has the highest average effective taxation of
    returns of investment.

    ¶13.  (SBU) Some recent commentators have suggested the
    government could do more to help simulate demand.  The
    government's tax reform, a remarkable achievement in its
    time, has dropped the top income tax rate from 53% to 42%
    beginning in 2005.  In 2004 and 2005 together this should
    add 1% of GDP back into consumer's pockets, according to
    OECD estimates.  Other fiscal charges or administered price
    increases have eaten away some of those gains offered in
    previous stages of the income tax cut.  Some of gone into
    the higher savings rate, as noted above.

    ¶14.  (SBU) Another part of the answer could lie in the
    quality of the government's expenditures.  57% of the
    government's expenditures in 2003 went to social welfare
    programs and only 3% to investment.  In the 1980's the
    government spent 48% of its budget on social systems and 5%
    on investment.

    ¶15.  (SBU) Transfers amounting to around 4% of GDP to the
    new states are increasingly ineffective in promoting growth.
    The OECD judges that subsidies to enterprises in the new
    states have not increased productivity but have increased
    dependence on the government and decreased adaptability to
    market forces.  The OECD also estimates that more than half
    the transfers for infrastructure are used for government
    consumption (culture, central administration), with the
    number of government employees per inhabitant in the new
    states exceeding the ratio in financially weak western
    states by 25%.

    ¶16.  (SBU) Tax subsidies for construction have contributed
    to overcapacity in office and residential housing that
    continue to weigh against investment.  Government
    procurements, which account for 17% of GDP, are highly
    complex, often broken into small contracts administered at
    the state level and not subject to open competition at the
    EU level, according to an OECD analysis.

    ¶17.  (SBU) One theme that runs through discussions on
    investment and government budget policies is "confidence,"
    or lack thereof.  Uncertainty about global demand,
    employment, and reforms feed into this lack of confidence.
    Confidence can work wonders.  In that bellwether year for
    German growth, 2000, the business community was optimistic
    about the future when the tax reforms were adopted, only to
    turn sour when new policies were adopted that were not so
    favorable for economic growth.

    ¶18.  (SBU) The European Commission points to research
    suggesting that even as a government reduces its budget
    deficits through structural changes, consumers' and
    investors' expectations can, and have, improved if they
    sense that the government will pass the gains on through
    lower taxes (or no tax increases).  Consumption goes up and
    investment goes up if there is a clear, consistence
    comprehensive and credible reform plan.  A recent survey for
    the German Financial Times suggested that the majority favor
    reforms.  Confidence could follow.  Less and smarter
    government spending is something that most would understand.

                        Forecast for Germany

                                  2003      2004      2005

    Percent Avg. Annual Growth
    GDP                                -0.1      1.8       1.7
      of which
      Consumption                         0.0       0.0
      1.4
      Investment                         -2.2      -2.8
      0.6
      -construction                 -3.3      -4.1     -2.6
      -machinery & equipment             -1.4      -1.9
      4.6
          Net Exports                  -11.2     36.7      8.8

    Consumer Price Index               1.0       1.7       0.9

    Employment                         -1.0      -0.3      0.4
    Unemployment Rate (%)              10.5      10.6      10.6
    Fiscal Balance (%GDP)              -3.8      -4.1      -3.5

    ¶19.  (U) This message coordinated with Embassy Berlin

    ¶20.  (U)POC: James Wallar, Treasury Representative, e-mail
    wallarjg2@state.gov; tel. 49-(69)-7535-2431, fax 49-(69)-
    7535-2238

    Bodde

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