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### Viewing cable 02HARARE2700, ONLY 600 OF 4500 COMMERCIAL FARMERS STILL STANDING

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
02HARARE2700 | 2002-11-26 05:34 | 2011-08-24 16:30 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Harare

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    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002700

    SIPDIS

    NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER
    LONDON FOR CGURNEY
    NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
    PARIS FOR NEARY

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EAGR ECON PHUM PGOV ZI
    SUBJECT: ONLY 600 OF 4500 COMMERCIAL FARMERS STILL STANDING

    REF: HARARE 2561

    ¶1.  Summary.  Given the chaotic nature of President Mugabe's
    fast-track land reform, it is no easy task to quantify this
    program.  Of 4,500 white-owned commercial farms, our best
    guess is that 3,900 have closed down and 4,275 have been
    slated for resettlement.  Despite GOZ claims that the land
    resettlement process is complete, farmers continue to receive
    new Section 8 acquisition notices, and others continue to
    come under eviction pressure from "third party" forces (e.g.,
    war veteran, youth militia, or settler groups).  Observers
    estimate that between 300,000 and 500,000 farm workers have
    lost their homes and jobs, despite press statements from
    Minister of Information Jonathan Moyo that "there are no
    displaced farm workers in Zimbabwe" -- which statement
    contradicts GOZ letters to the UN.  The GOZ claims it has
    resettled 350,000 black farmers on the subdivided commercial
    farms, but based on anecdotal evidence and ad-hoc
    observation, we estimate that fewer than 100,000 have taken
    up residence and fewer than 40,000 are actually farming.  As
    noted reftel, we believe it is difficult to view fast-track
    land reform as anything but a failure at this juncture.  The
    controversial program will devastate tobacco production,
    formerly Zimbabwe's largest foreign exchange earner and top
    private sector employer.  End summary.

    ¶2.  Despite the GOZ's claims that land resettlement is a fait
    accompli, there is little indication that the process has
    reached equilibrium.  Some commercial farmers have been
    granted temporary relief through the courts based on
    procedural defects in their acquisition orders, although most
    of these expect to receive new acquisition orders at any
    moment.  Other commercial farmers -- 111 total, and at least
    twenty in the Karoi area according to one contact -- have
    received new Section 8 acquisition orders since November 1.

    Actual Occupancy Difficult to Substantiate
    ------------------------------------------

    ¶3.  Due to the fluid situation regarding validity of
    acquisition notices, geographical intensity of settler / war
    veteran activity, and individual resistance on the part of
    evicted farmers, there is no consensus as to how many
    commercial farmers remain on their property.  There is
    similar lack of consensus on how many "new farmers" have been
    settled.  Most observers concur that at least 95% of
    commercial farms (approximately 4,275 of 4,500) have received
    acquisition notices, although some farmers remain on their
    land and continue to resist acquisition through the courts
    with varying degrees of success.  The closest estimate at
    this point is that approximately 600 commercial farmers are
    still attempting to produce something on their land, although
    more than half of those continue to struggle against actual
    seizure of their property.  The GOZ continues to claim that
    300,000 indigenous farmers have been resettled under the A1
    small-holder model, and that 50,000 indigenous farmer have
    been resettled under the A2, or "new" commercial farmer,
    model.  The true levels of resettlement lie far below these
    optimistic claims.

    ¶4.  Occupation of resettled plots cannot be estimated with
    any certainty, but visits by Post personnel to affected areas
    indicate that productive cultivation of acquired farms is the
    exception rather than the rule.  Even ZANU-PF supported news
    reports concede that convincing A2 "new farmers" to take up
    their plots has  been difficult.  It is less clear what
    proportions of A1 farmers are on the land, but the GOZ figure
    of 300,000 is almost certainly an exaggeration.  Moreover,
    based on our personal observations, we believe that a
    substantial portion of these small-scale farmers have not
    planted a significant crop on resettled land.  The pattern
    has been that plots containing buildings such as a homestead
    or barns are occupied quickly, while the majority of plots
    without such amenities remain abandoned.  The impact that
    resettlement is having on individual agricultural sectors is
    slightly easier to quantify.

    Commercial Farmers' Union Statistics
    ------------------------------------

    ¶5.  The Commercial Farmers' Union (CFU), battered by GOZ
    disdain and rocked by internal conflict, is desperately
    attempting to maintain some degree of relevance in the
    current chaotic situation.  Many CFU farmers, once they have
    been evicted from their property, no longer maintain ties
    with or forward information regarding their situations to the
    CFU leadership.  However, the CFU remains one of the few
    organizations attempting to quantify the situation of
    commercial farmers as a whole.  The CFU claims that 90% of
    white commercial farmers have been formally dispossessed of
    their properties since the beginning of the land reforms in
    ¶2000.  At this point, the organization estimates that 600
    commercial farmers retain some physical control of their
    property, although many remain under threat of acquisition.

    Commercial Tobacco Farmers Drop from 1,580 to 330
    --------------------------------------------- ----

    ¶6.  Tobacco, long an integral part of Zimbabwe's economy
    which accounted for up to a third of foreign exchange,
    deserves special mention.  Zimbabwe produced its maximum
    output of 220 million kilograms of tobacco in 2000. During
    this last growing season, approximately 1,580 commercial
    farmers produced 148 million kgs of high-grade tobacco, while
    approximately 12,000 small-scale indigenous farmers produced
    12 million kgs -- a reduction of 60 million kgs.  Owing to
    experience and economies of scale, commercial growers can
    produce between 2,500 and 3,000 kgs per hectare, while
    small-scale growers generally produce around 1,000 kgs per
    hectare.

    ¶7.  The Zimbabwe Tobacco Association (ZTA), an apolitical
    industry group whose survival depends on the success of
    small-scale growers, keeps fairly close estimates of tobacco
    grower activity.  ZTA states that approximately 330
    large-scale commercial growers are attempting to produce a
    crop during the next season.  Of those commercial growers,
    the ZTA believes that at least half are facing continued GOZ
    attempts to acquire their land.  The ZTA estimates that next
    year's tobacco crop could result in 70 million kgs, if
    commercial growers can maintain control of their land through
    the harvest and curing process.  Other observers are
    predicting a maximum crop size of 20 to 30 million kgs.
    Although seed sales indicate that next season's crop could
    theoretically equal last year's yield, many factors suggest
    that this -- along with the GOZ's euphoric predictions of a
    2003 crop in excess of 300 million kgs -- is merely wishful
    thinking.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶8. According to the ZTA, tobacco is a chemical-intensive
    crop, requiring expensive insecticides and fertilizers
    throughout the growing period, and the "new" small-scale
    farmers (who, without title to their land, have little
    collateral for bank loans) have been given scant GOZ
    assistance.  Additionally, many existing small-scale farmers
    previously received significant assistance from their
    commercial farmer neighbors in the form of tobacco seedlings,
    chemicals, and assistance with tillage.  With the
    dispossession of the vast majority of the commercial farmers,
    much of this assistance has disappeared.  Finally, production
    of the most valuable product -- flue-cured tobacco -- is a
    labor-intensive skill acquired through years of experience.
    Zimbabwean commercial farmers have been developing their
    skills over generations, and assuming that any farmer with a
    plot of land and a hoe can equal their quality or quantity of
    production is naive at best. While some tobacco will be
    produced, Zimbabwe's days as the biggest producer of
    flue-cured tobacco  -- as well as the days when tobacco
    earned 30% of Zimbabwe's forex -- are finished.

    ¶9.  Commercial farming has become a ghost industry, with
    operators few and far between, while hundreds of thousands of
    hectares of formerly productive fields lie barren and wasted
    under the husbandry of the "new farmers."  Some small-scale,
    indigenous and new commercial farmers will succeed, and some
    may even be profitable.  However, when weighed against the
    phenomenally productive and lucrative commercial farming
    sector of several years ago, even the GOZ will be
    hard-pressed to present these isolated successes as a victory.
    SULLIVAN

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