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### Viewing cable 05BRASILIA718, BRAZIL: OLMERT VISIT A SUCCESS, BUT SUMMIT STILL

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05BRASILIA718 | 2005-03-16 11:28 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Brasilia

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 000718

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2015
    TAGS: PREL PTER KSUM ETRD XF XM IS BR
    SUBJECT: BRAZIL: OLMERT VISIT A SUCCESS, BUT SUMMIT STILL
    DOMINATES ISRAELI CONCERNS

    REF: A. BRASILIA 564
         ¶B. BRASILIA 574
         ¶C. BRASILIA 658

    Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN DANILOVICH, Reasons 1.4 (b & d)

    ¶1.  (C)  Summary and Introduction:  Israeli Deputy Prime
    Minister Olmert reportedly enjoyed a successful visit to
    Brazil last week, however, he was apparently unable to
    convince the GOB to take a tougher approach -- from the
    Israeli perspective -- with Arab interlocutors in preparation
    for the Arab-South America Summit in Brasilia in May.  In a
    meeting between President Lula and Olmert, the Brazilians
    studiously avoided any discussion of the Summit.  After
    polling South American colleagues and officials in the
    Ministry of External Relations (MRE), an Israeli diplomat
    told Poloff he sensed Brazilian nervousness that, while most
    if not all South American presidents will be in Brasilia,
    Arab heads of state may stay away.  He surmised that this is
    a not-so-subtle pressure tactic by Arab states to sway
    Brazil, the lead South American negotiator, on Summit
    declaration language.  While the South Americans claim they
    are standing firm vis-a-vis the Arabs on the themes of
    terrorism and Middle East peace, the diplomat noted that
    Israel takes little comfort from the direction the
    declaration seems to be heading.  End Summary

    DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER OLMERT "BREAKS BARRIERS" WITH LULA
    --------------------------------------------- -----------

    ¶2.  (C)  In follow-up discussions with Poloff March 14 (see
    ref A), Embassy of Israel Minister Counselor Eitan Surkis
    said that Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Olmert had "succeeded
    in breaking barriers" in a one hour March 7 meeting with
    President Lula and in meetings with other key GOB ministers,
    including Minister for Agriculture Roberto Rodrigues;
    Minister for Mines and Energy Dilma Rousseff; Minister for
    Development, Industry, and Trade Luis Furlan; and Secretary
    for Economic and Social Development Jaques Wagner.  In an
    indirect reference to the upcoming Arab-South American
    Summit, Olmert gave Lula his overview of Middle East politics
    and described Israel's unending "sacrifices" on the road to
    peace.  Surkis sensed that President Lula was impressed by
    Olmert's description of Israel's expansion of ties with
    Jordan and a recent press photo showing Prime Minister Sharon
    hugging Egyptian President Mubarak.  Although given the
    opportunity to discuss the upcoming Summit with Olmert, the
    Brazilian President did not take the bait, Surkis said.

    ¶3.  (C)  The Deputy Prime Minister invited Lula to visit
    Israel, and the Brazilian President responded that he would
    like to do so "during his first mandate," i.e. before the
    2006 presidential electoral campaign season.  Lula noted,
    however, that it might be easier if perhaps either Israeli
    President Katzir or Prime Minister Sharon visited Brazil.
    (Note: Because the Prime Minister was specifically invited,
    Surkis considered this a major concession by the Brazilians.
    End Note)  Surkis pointed out that the Ministry of External
    Relations (MRE) had been almost a non-player in the
    preparations for Olmert's visit; the GOI had coordinated the
    visit directly with the GOB Presidency.  (Foreign Minister
    Amorim himself was traveling in Africa when Olmert was in
    Brazil.)  In any case, Lula reiterated that the Foreign
    Minister intended to visit Israel in June/July 2005.

    ¶4.  (C)  The expansion of commercial ties was a key theme for
    Olmert's visit to Brazil, Surkis said.  Regarding Mercosul,
    President Lula told Olmert that Brazil "would not put up any
    obstacles" for Israel to have an agreement with the trading
    group.  The Israelis, Surkis commented, had heard this
    message before.  Olmert reminded Lula that Israel had first
    sought a trade pact with Mercosul in 1997.  Yet Egypt, which
    had first broached the idea of a Mercosul agreement in 2004,
    had already been rewarded with an agreement.  Surkis added
    that the two sides also discussed the possibility of creating
    a binational commission.

    COULD THE SUMMIT BECOME A BUST?
    -------------------------------

    ¶5.  (C)  Surkis and Poloff then compared notes on the lead-up
    to the Arab-South America Summit.  In addition to meeting
    with key MRE officials, Surkis had already met with diplomats
    from most of Brasilia's South American embassies.  Based on
    his conversations, Surkis believes almost all South American
    presidents would attend the Summit.  However, as of last
    week, he understood that no Arab head of state had yet
    confirmed his attendance.  This was probably a not-too-subtle
    ploy by the Arabs to play hardball on the declaration
    language, Surkis opined.  While there is little doubt that
    participating Arab countries would be represented by foreign
    ministers, if Arab heads of state were not in attendance,
    Surkis felt the event could turn into an embarrassment for
    President Lula.  Surkis sensed that regardless of the
    declaration talks, the King of Morocco is an almost certain
    Summit attendee.  In addition, he believed Abu Mazen from the
    Palestinian Authority would like to come, if there is no
    immediate crisis in the territories.  The big question mark,
    he believed, is Mubarak.  The Israeli Embassy in Cairo had
    reported "contradictory indications" in the press as to the
    Egyptian President's attendance at the Summit.  Egypt has
    been the lead for the Arab League in negotiations over the
    Summit declaration.

    ¶6.  (C)  Based on his consultations with South American
    diplomats, Surkis believes South American concurrence has
    been achieved on "95%" of the Summit declaration.  During the
    recent South America group meeting in Rio, three political
    themes were discussed: (1) land-locked countries, (2)
    terrorism, and (3) the Arab-Israeli peace process.  Regarding
    terrorism, Colombia reportedly insisted, successfully, that
    declaration language refer to terrorism "in all its forms and
    manifestations."  This tact, Surkis felt, could perhaps
    negate any Arab attempt to differentiate between state and
    non-state terrorism or "legitimate" types of activities that,
    of course, were clearly terrorism.  While the South Americans
    agreed they would not allow the declaration to contain
    "tough" language against Israel, Surkis said it would be
    small comfort to Israel if the final Summit declaration, in
    addition to referring to acceptable UNSC Resolutions such as
    242 and 338, referred also to other UN resolutions that
    Israel finds onerous.  It was also Surkis' understanding that
    the South Americans may agree to language calling on Israel
    to withdraw to the frontiers of June 4, 1967.  "What does
    this Summit have to do with this (issue)?" Surkis asked.

    ¶7.  (C)  Surkis again emphasized that the South Americans,
    including the Brazilians, are evidently unaware of all the
    sensitivities surrounding the Mideast peace process.  "They
    are believers in UN resolutions," he added, "and do not want
    to invent anything new."  Given the various stages of
    negotiation of the declaration, the last chance to make
    changes to it would be in Brasilia just before the opening of
    the Summit itself.

    ¶8.  (C)  COMMENT:  The Israeli Embassy has pulled out all the
    stops to gauge the Summit preparatory process, and their
    perspective about Brazilian diplomacy leading to the Summit
    coincides closely with our own.  As with us, MRE is being
    very cautious in what they tell the Israelis.  We sense that,
    from the Brazilian perspective, if after tedious negotiations
    with the Arabs the Summit declaration refers only to classic
    (i.e., approved) UN resolutions, withdrawal to 1967 borders,
    etc., and does not blatantly blame Israel, this would be
    evidence of successful Brazilian diplomacy.  The other South
    Americans, themselves amateurs to the vagaries and nuances of
    the peace process, will likely follow Brazil's lead.

    Danilovich

`