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### Viewing cable 04ANKARA3429, MEETING WITH BANK REGULATORY BOARD CHAIRMAN

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04ANKARA3429 | 2004-06-16 14:33 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ankara

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

    161433Z Jun 04

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 003429

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    STATE FOR EB/IFD, AND EUR/SE
    TREASURY FOR OASIA - RADKINS AND MMILLS
    NSC FOR BRYZA AND MCKIBBEN

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EFIN ECON PGOV TU
    SUBJECT: MEETING WITH BANK REGULATORY BOARD CHAIRMAN

    REF: ANKARA 3412

    ¶1. (Sbu) Summary: Bank Regulatory Board (BRSA) Chairman
    Tevfik Bilgin told econcouns June 14 that his priority is
    preparation for the lifting of the blanket guarantee on
    deposits July 5, specifically monitoring to ensure there is
    no flight of deposits from private to state-owned banks.
    Bilgin revealed that coordination between newly-separated
    SDIF and BRSA is not working smoothly. He implied that the
    Cukurova group had worked out a tentative deal to restructure
    its debt payments to the Deposit Guarantee Fund (SDIF) but
    that the SDIF and BRSA boards would have to approve. He
    explained that the deal would build in incentives for
    Cukurova to sell its Yapi Kredi shares quickly.  End Summary.

    Lifting the Blanket Guarantee on Deposits:
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶2. (Sbu) In a June 14 farewell call by Econcouns, Bilgin said
    his priority is to be sure the banking sector is ready for
    the lifting of the blanket guarantee on deposits July 5.
    Note:  The lifting of the blanket guarantee is a long-awaited
    reform, designed to reduce the moral hazard of the state's
    unlimited guarantee on deposits, limiting it to TL 50 billion
    (about $33,000) per account.  End Note.  Bilgin claimed the
    sector was ready but required careful vigilance by
    regulators, as banks--especially the smaller private
    banks--need to be ready for a possible flight to quality.
    The regulators are therefore urging these small banks to
    strengthen their liquidity positions, which of course, cuts
    into their profits.  Given the risk of flight from private to
    state-owned banks arising from the implied state guarantee
    inherent in the state ownership, Bilgin said state banks are
    keeping their deposit rates lower than private banks.  Note:
    As reported earlier, under the IFI-agreed state bank
    privatization strategy, the state banks are supposed to keep
    their deposit rates no higher than private banks' rates on a
    risk-adjusted basis. End Note.  Bilgin said that the state
    banks need to be ready to further lower their deposit rates,
    if needed.

    Banking Law:
    -----------

    ¶3. (Sbu) Bilgin revealed that the new banking law, in the
    end, did not prohibit owners of banks from also owning
    foundations or media outlets.  Bilgin explained that the BRSA
    had asked other OECD countries about their practices, and
    found that none had these kinds of prohibitions in their
    banking laws, though some had similar bans in their press
    laws.  Bilgin said the key is good supervision, which the
    banking law addresses. Among other features, he cited the end
    of the sworn auditor's monopoly of on-site inspection, to
    allow IT experts, for example, to join these inspections.  He
    agreed that allowing IT experts to join on-site audits was a
    result of the on-site inspectors' failure to catch Imar
    Bank's use of fraudulent systems. Bilgin confirmed that
    passage of the Banking Law would be delayed until September
    or October.

    BRSA-SDIF Coordination:
    ----------------------

    ¶4. (Sbu) When asked about how BRSA-SDIF coordination is
    working now that the two boards are separate and SDIF has
    moved to Istanbul, Bilgin revealed that it is not going well.
     Without going into detail, his expression and body language
    suggested the coordination was far from smooth.  Note:  One
    of the key components in the banking law, required under the
    GOT's IMF and World Bank programs, was for the law to spell
    out in detail the respective roles and responsibilities and
    coordination mechanisms for SDIF and BRSA.  End note.

    Cukurova Deal:
    -------------

    ¶5. (Sbu) On June 4 press reports of agreement between
    regulators and Cukurova on a long-rumored deal were
    subsequently denied by SDIF and BRSA.  The Capital Markets
    Board subsequently launched an investigation of possible
    market manipulation.  Bilgin said he believes the first
    report was a deliberate move by speculators in Yapi Kredi
    stock.  As for the status of regulators' discussions with
    Cukurova, Bilgin said any deal would still have to be
    approved by the SDIF board and then by the BRSA board.  Since
    Bilgin then went into some detail about the structure of a
    possible deal, he seemed to imply that negotiations were at
    an advanced stage.  Mentioning that the deal would reduce the
    maturity of Cukurova's payment plan from 15 years to two
    years, Bilgin said the key issue for the SDIF board was the
    Net Present Value (NPV) of the deal and the interest rate
    used for the NPV calculation.  Note: The NPV is important
    because Cukurova should not be getting a better NPV than
    previously-agreed to. End Note.  Bilgin, who rejected an
    earlier deal with Cukurova in January, said the key issue for
    BRSA is that Cukurova and its owner, Mehmet Karamehmet, not
    be allowed back into the banking sector.

    ¶6. (Sbu) According to Bilgin, the tentative deal would not
    allow Cukurova back into banking, but would build in
    incentives for it to find a buyer for Yapi Kredi Bank as
    quickly as possible. He said it was important to resolve the
    issue because Yapi Kredi represents 10 percent of the banking
    sector (and Bilgin had earlier admitted that the uncertainty
    created by the situation with Cukurova was eroding Yapi
    Kredi's value).  Note: Cukurova group companies currently own
    40.7 percent of Yapi Kredi's shares, with another 12.9
    percent, formerly held by the intervened Pamuk Bank, now held
    by SDIF.  41.6 percent are quoted on the Istanbul Stock
    Exchange.  End Note.  Bilgin also admitted he was anxious to
    solve this before the lifting of the blanket deposit
    guarantee July 5.

    ¶7. (Sbu) According to Bilgin, the incentive for Cukurova to
    find a buyer for its Yapi Kredi shares was that, if anything
    happens to Yapi Kredi, Cukurova would be exposed to the
    December 2003 law enabling SDIF to go after assets of owners
    of failed banks and their families--the law that SDIF used to
    seize all Uzan group companies earlier this year.  SDIF,
    after seizing the Turkcell shares, could go after Cukurova
    group--and Karahmehmet family--assets, because the Turkcell
    shares were not of sufficient value to cover all of
    Cukurova's liabilities to Yapi Kredi.  Under the tentative
    deal, Bilgin said the Turkcell shares would be released in
    proportion to the loan payments by Cukurova, however, for
    each monthly $100 million-odd payment only about 70% of this
    amount in Turkcell shares would be released.  Bilgin said
    this would keep the pressure on Cukurova to sell its Yapi
    Kredi shares.

    ¶8. (Sbu) Another issue that BRSA will have to closely
    scrutinize, according to Bilgin, is the source of Cukurova's
    financing of the accelerated payments.  In the earlier deal
    Bilgin rejected, Cukurova had floated a plan to finance the
    deal from a mysterious offshore company called North
    Petroleum.  Now, Bilgin said the financing source is still
    not clear.  He hopes the money will come through Citigroup
    and HSBC, because that would provide some confidence that
    these banks and their home country regulators will be
    applying a high standard of anti-money laundering practices.

    Demir and Kent Bank Cases:
    -------------------------

    ¶9. (Sbu) Bilgin continues to worry about the potential
    ramifications of the court decision in favor of the former
    owners of Demir and Kent Banks.  BRSA has now received the
    text of the court's decision which tracks with its earlier
    decision, i.e. that the Central Bank effectively caused the
    failure by cutting its lines of credit to Demir, and that the
    BRSA should have given Kent Bank's owners more time to bring
    the bank's capital up to required levels.  Bilgin noted
    former Kent owner Mustafa Suzer's comments to the press about
    wanting his bank back. As he had said at an earlier meeting,
    Bilgin said he fears that a BRSA rejection, if Suzer applies
    for a license, would be overturned by the courts.

    EDELMAN

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