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### Viewing cable 04FRANKFURT3861, New Bundesbank President calms situation;

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04FRANKFURT3861 | 2004-05-03 13:51 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Consulate Frankfurt

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    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 FRANKFURT 003861

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR EUR PDAS RIES, EB BAY, EUR/AGS, AND EUR/ERA
    STATE PASS FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD
    STATE PASS NSC
    TREASURY FOR DAS SOBEL
    TREASURY ALSO FOR ICN COX, STUART
    PARIS ALSO FOR OECD
    TREASURY FOR OCC RUTLEDGE, MCMAHON

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EFIN EUN
    SUBJECT: New Bundesbank President calms situation;
    ethics moves to the fore

    T-IA-F-04-0004

    This cable is sensitive but unclassified.  Not/not
    for Internet distribution.

    Ref: (A) Berlin 1385 (B) Berlin 1416

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Well-respected monetary policy
    expert Axel Weber was appointed as the new Bundesbank
    President.  A supporter of stability-oriented monetary
    policy, his nomination was well-received across party-
    lines and among academics as well as in the financial
    markets.  While many observers had feared that the
    federal government would take advantage of the
    opportunity provided by Welteke's resignation to
    increase its influence on the Bundesbank, these
    concerns were alleviated by the nomination of Weber.
    Meanwhile, the Welteke case appears to have increased
    German public sensitivity with regard to ethical
    conduct.  End summary.

    --------------------------------------------
    Axel Weber Appointed as Bundesbank President
    --------------------------------------------

    ¶2. (SBU) On April 30, Axel Weber was formally appointed
    as the new Bundesbank President by President Rau.  On
    April 27, the Bundesbank board approved his nomination
    by the federal government.

    ¶3. (SBU) Former Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke
    stepped down after the media exposed details about his
    (and his family's) four-day stay at a luxury hotel in
    Berlin paid for by Dresdner Bank.  Subsequently,
    Frankfurt public prosecutors launched an investigation
    to assess whether Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke
    "accepted an advantage" or Dresdner Bank intended to
    gain one.  The investigation is still underway.
    Initially reluctant to resign, Welteke stubbornly
    rejected criticism but eventually conceded when new
    accusations appeared in the media about a stay at a
    Formula 1 race in Monaco at the invitation of BMW.  The
    carmaker also owns a bank, which is supervised by the
    Bundesbank.

    ---------
    Axel Who?
    ---------

    ¶4. (SBU) Although largely unknown to the wider public,
    Weber is a well-respected academic, whose main research
    area is monetary policy.  He teaches economics at the
    University of Cologne and is a member of the Council of
    Economic Advisers to the federal government.  From 1998
    to 2002, he was director of the Frankfurt-based Center
    for Financial Studies, which has close ties with both
    central banks - including the ECB - and private
    financial institutions.  Reportedly, Weber is a
    confidant of ECB chief economist Otmar Issing.

    ¶5. (SBU) Since October 2000, Weber has been a member of
    the Academic Advisory Council to the Bundesbank.  He
    was Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institutions in
    1992/93, and before that at the Center of Economic
    Research of the University of Tilburg and at the Queen
    Mary College of the University of London.  He is also a
    Research Fellow of the Center for Economic Policy
    Research (CEPR).

    --------------------
    Where does he stand?
    --------------------

    ¶6. (SBU) Weber is politically independent and has
    described himself as a "partisan of stability-oriented
    monetary policy".

    ¶7. (SBU) At the press conference following his
    nomination, Weber stated that the Council of Economic
    Advisers' assessment of the current interest rate level
    last fall is still correct.  The Advisers found that
    the key interest rate was adequate given the exchange
    rate environment.  More generally, Weber argued that
    monetary policy makers should not look dogmatically at
    only a few variables when trying to control inflation.
    He stated that a range of variables, not only money
    supply, needs to be taken into account.  He pointed out
    that the ECB strategy was developed for the transition
    to EMU, without practical experience on how the
    transmission mechanism would work.  Although the ECB
    reviewed this last year, Weber considers the process to
    be incomplete at this point.

    ¶8. (SBU) In their 2003 report, the Council of Economic
    Advisers - led by monetary policy expert Weber -
    welcomed in principle the review of the ECB's strategy,
    but qualified their approval by noting that the full
    integration of the two pillars ("economic" and
    "monetary" analysis) would have been advisable.  The
    Council also stated that a more precise numerical
    definition of the inflation target would have enhanced
    transparency.  More generally, it criticized that the
    methods used to collate all the information relevant
    for decision-making are not sufficiently transparent
    and understandable.  The report called for the ECB to
    further strengthen the role of its inflation and
    economic forecasts both in its decision-making and its
    communication.

    ¶9. (SBU) Observers call Weber "pragmatic and
    undogmatic", fully in line with the "neo-classical
    mainstream".  He is against using monetary policy for
    anti-cyclical fine-tuning, but is well aware that
    interest rate policies have an impact on the real
    economy.  Weber has stated in the past that the low
    growth in Germany cannot be overcome by short-term
    impulses, but that there is a need for structural
    reforms.  This assessment is in line with the
    Bundesbank position.

    ¶10. (SBU) When asked at the press conference whether he
    considers the current exchange rate system as
    appropriate, he answered that he finds this question
    "somewhat weird" and that exchange rates are the result
    of market processes.

    ¶11. (SBU) Moreover, Weber stressed that the Stability
    Pact is still an important pillar of fiscal policy and
    must not be damaged.  He called for a fast reduction of
    deficits in order to restore the credibility of fiscal
    policies.  He is skeptical of proposals by some Social
    Democrats to introduce exchange rate targets or a Tobin-
    tax.

    ¶12. (SBU) Weber also said at the press conference that
    the internal structural reforms launched by the
    Bundesbank are "absolutely right".  He suggested that
    it put more emphasis on its competence in financial
    market issues and lead the way in that area within the
    euro zone in the future.  Observers expect him to
    strengthen monetary and financial research within the
    Bundesbank in order to bolster his positions in the ECB
    Council.

    ¶13. (SBU) Bert Rrup, also a member of the Council of
    Economic Advisers, characterized Weber as an advocate
    of rules-based monetary policy.  Rrup would not call
    him an "extreme hawk", but sees him in the Bundesbank's
    tradition of strict adherence to stability.  Overall,
    Rrup considers Weber to be an "excellent macro-
    economist, laying particular emphasis on empirical work
    rk
    and with profound knowledge of monetary policy
    institutions".

    ¶14. (SBU) Weber is not known as an extrovert.  Even in
    his capacity as member of the Council of Economic
    Advisers, some of whom keep a high media profile, he
    has hardly ever spoken out.  His students at the
    University of Cologne characterize his lectures as
    "dry" yet "demanding".

    ---------
    Reactions
    ---------
    ¶15. (SBU) The nomination of Weber was well received
    across party lines.  The opposition CDU, CSU and FDP
    all welcomed the government's decision, stressing that
    it is in the interest of the Bundesbank's independence.
    Both academic and financial market circles reacted
    positively.

    ¶16. (SBU) Some observers, however, regard his lack of
    practical central banking experience as a weakness.
    Moreover, they claim that he has no experience in
    managing and restructuring a large institution.

    ¶17. (SBU) Others criticize that the natural and best-
    qualified candidate for Bundesbank President would have
    been Vice-President Jrgen Stark, who was not favored
    by the government as he is too close to the CDU.

    ------------------
    Wider Implications
    ------------------

    ¶18. (SBU) As a consequence of the Welteke scandal,
    Theodor Baums, law professor at the university of
    Frankfurt and financial market and corporate governance
    expert, was put in charge of corporate governance at
    the Bundesbank.  He monitors compliance with the rules
    of conduct for the Bundesbank board, laid down in the
    Bundesbank law, the contracts relating to regional
    offices and branches, and the ethical code of the ECB.
    Baums' nomination is to ensure an "independent and
    objective external monitoring".

    ¶19. (SBU) Reportedly, the Finance Ministry insists on a
    clause in Weber's contract, referring to the strict
    rules of conduct for civil servants.  As a consequence,
    changes may also need to be introduced in the contracts
    of the other Bundesbank board members.

    ¶20. (SBU) The recent events at the Bundesbank have
    raised public awareness of ethical conduct issues.
    Welteke's behavior may just be the tip of the iceberg -
    other similar cases are possible.  The public outrage
    over the Welteke case may thus lead to the
    establishment of ethical rules or code of conduct in
    the Bundesbank or other institutions or, where they
    exist already, to stricter enforcement.

    ¶21. (SBU) Cleared with U.S. Embassy Berlin.

    ¶22. (U) POC: C. Ohly, Economic Specialist, e-mail
    ohlyc@state.gov; tel. 49-(69)-7535-2367, fax 49-(69)-
    7535-2238.

    BODDE

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