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### Viewing cable 03ANKARA1091, SCENESETTER FOR CODEL WARNER

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
03ANKARA1091 | 2003-02-19 14:23 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ankara

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001091

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    KUWAIT PLEASE PASS TO CODEL WARNER

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PREL OVIP TU
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL WARNER

    THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.

    ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: We look forward to your upcoming visit.  It
    comes at a key decision time for Turkey.  US-Turkey relations
    have been dominated recently by Iraq.  Should the Turks
    continue delaying a decision to support US military requests
    related to Iraq, our close regional, economic, and strategic
    cooperation could be in question.  Over the last two years
    the US has supported Turkish economic reforms and recovery
    from its worst economic crisis in decades.  Despite the
    concentration on Iraq, the strategic partnership has grown as
    a result of Turkey's significant support in the global war on
    terrorism, including taking leadership of the International
    Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan.  Over the
    last six months, the governing coalition of Bulent Ecevit
    crumbled and was replaced in November elections by the first
    majority government in over ten years.  The new
    Islam-influenced AK Party, which holds almost two-thirds of
    the seats in Parliament, is now facing numerous external
    challenges including Turkey's EU candidacy, Cyprus, and Iraq.
     END SUMMARY

    -------------------------
    Political-Military Issues
    -------------------------

    ¶2. (SBU) Iraq: The US and Turkey have been engaged in intense
    and detailed discussions about Iraq for the last 11 months,
    including the possibility of military operations.  The
    Turkish public overwhelmingly opposes military action against
    Iraq and opening Turkish bases to the US.  The GOT is not
    enthusiastic about working against that trend.  Turks fear
    that an Iraq war would have a serious negative economic
    impact on them and could lead to increased instability next
    door and in Turkey's restive southeast.  On Feb. 6 the
    Turkish Parliament authorized deployment of US forces to
    prepare sites for a full US deployment here.  We understood
    that the Turkish Parliament would consider support for US
    troops Feb. 18.  That vote has been delayed.  Whether there
    will be a US-Turkish agreement resulting in Parliamentary
    authorization remains an open question.

    ¶3. (SBU) Operation Northern Watch: Turkey continues to
    support Operation Northern Watch (the northern no-fly zone)
    based out of Incirlik, which was again renewed for six months
    on Christmas Day.  The Turks also have good relations with
    the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, and had a visit from
    Kurdistan Democratic Party leader Masoud Barzani the first
    week of January which helped put what had become a tense and
    unhappy relationship back on a more cooperative footing.  The
    Turks are strong supporters of the Iraqi Turkmen Front, and
    have recently begun meeting for the first time with Iraqi
    opposition groups other than the KDP, PUK, and the ITF.  The
    Turks met jointly with the KDP, PUK, ITF and the US
    Presidential Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad in Ankara at the
    beginning of February to discuss visions of a post-Saddam
    Iraq.  All participants agreed to coordinate future efforts
    in this regard.

    ¶4. (SBU) Global War on Terrorism: Immediately after 9/11,
    Turkey opened its infrastructure to the US military for the
    GWOT and supported the invocation of Article V at NATO.
    Turkey has granted clearance to over 8000 US sorties in
    support of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) in and through
    Turkey. The GOT has also offered special operations forces
    and aerial refuelers for Operation Enduring Freedom.  But
    chief among the GOT's contribution was its agreement to take
    over leadership of the International Security Assistance
    Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan in June 2002, which it
    relinquished on February 10 .

    ¶5. (SBU) NATO: Ankara was supportive of the US agenda at the
    NATO Prague Summit in November, including our push for NATO
    expansion and improved capabilities.  Turkey's primary
    concern is keeping the three NATO commands currently located
    in Turkey after the command structure review is conducted in
    Brussels which seeks to streamline (and thus cut) the number
    of commands.  Turkey has relied heavily on US support at NATO
    to gain approval for planning for the defense of Turkey in
    the event of an attack from Iraq.  Approval for such planning
    by NATO military authorities was given Feb. 16 after four
    weeks of debate in Brussels.

    ¶6. (SBU) Arms Sales:  A $1.1 billion contract for four Boeing
    AEW&C aircraft was signed last June.  Since then, contract
    effectively has been delayed twice because of GOT
    dissatisfaction with USG restrictions on certain technology
    transfer as well as other commercial issues.  These problems
    are working their way to resolution, and we hope for
    effectivity by early March.  Meanwhile, a $2.0 billion
    contract negotiation with Bell-Textron for 50 attack
    helicopters has been stalled by price issues.

    ---------------
    Political Scene
    ---------------

    ¶7. (SBU) The AK Party won a major victory on Nov. 3 and
    controls 362 (of 550) seats in the legislature.  After
    assuming power Nov 18, AK moved quickly to promote Turkey's
    EU candidacy by passing a package of long overdue human
    rights reforms, and with strong USG support garnered an EU
    conditional date of end-2004 for the beginning of formal EU
    accession talks.  In other areas, AK's inexperience and lack
    of expertise is hampering decisions on complex issues and is
    preventing application of the clean government and economic
    and democratic reform program it promised.  AK, with its
    roots in Islamic politics, is further handicapped by poor
    relations with traditional State institutions that are loath
    to tolerate most expressions of religiosity, and which see AK
    as a challenge to the status quo.   In this regard, the
    judiciary launched a case to close AK some 10 days before the
    last elections.  On Jan. 8, Turkish General Staff issued a
    strong warning to AK -- whose poll numbers have been on the
    upswing since the elections -- to abandon policies allegedly
    at odds with the secularist principles of the Kemalist
    Republic.  The political ban against AK leader R. Tayyip
    Erdogan will run its course by late February.  He has already
    announced his candidacy for Parliament in the special March 9
    election in Siirt province, but his candidacy may still be
    challenged by the election board or judiciary.  If Erdogan is
    allowed to stand, and wins, the way will be cleared for his
    assumption of the prime ministership.

    ------
    Cyprus
    ------

    ¶8. (SBU) AK Government has been far ahead of its predecessors
    in pushing for a solution on Cyprus -- and has pressed "TRNC
    President" Denktas to negotiate on the draft UN Cyprus
    settlement plan.  Negotiations to reach a solution in the
    decades-old Cyprus dispute continue, against the backdrop of
    unprecedented, massive demonstrations in Turkish Cyprus aimed
    at both Denktas and the Turkish Establishment that has long
    nurtured him.  AK leader Erdogan and other AK officials have
    openly criticized Denktas and by implication Turkey's
    traditional policy.  However, while working toward an
    agreement, Turkey has yet to obtain a package it deems
    acceptable.

    ¶9. (SBU) Current UN efforts call for the parties to complete
    a deal by February 28, which would allow sufficient time for
    a settlement to be incorporated into Cyprus' EU accession
    treaty.  (The EU at its December summit in Copenhagen agreed
    to admit Cyprus; the treaty will be signed in April).
    Turkish sensitivities include: 1) the need to maintain
    security for Turkish Cypriots (and mainland Turkish
    "strategic" interests on the island); 2) the question of
    territorial adjustments and the right of displaced Greek
    Cypriots to return to (or seek restitution for) their former
    properties; and 3) the equal status of Turkish Cyprus within
    the new partner state.

    ---------------
    Economic Issues
    ---------------

    ¶10. (SBU) Economic Crisis: Although nearly two years of
    IMF-backed economic reform have laid the foundation for
    greater financial stability and growth, Turkey's enormous
    public debt burden and structural weaknesses keep the economy
    fragile.  The key during 2003 is to maintain market
    confidence, so investors will continue to lend the government
    the massive amounts it needs to avoid a debt default.
    Markets initially greeted the AK election  victory, and AK's
    commitment to further economic reform, with a rally.  So far,
    however, the government's performance has been disappointing.
     Rather than pursue reform, the government has adopted
    populist spending policies and moved to dismantle some key
    reforms.  Strong international and market pressure over the
    past month have forced the government to respond, including
    with announcements of new fiscal and privatization measures,
    but it is still not clear whether the government will
    implement the full reform program.  Expectations of a large
    U.S. bilateral assistance package in the context of an Iraq
    operation have propped up markets despite disappointment with
    the government's policies.

    ¶11. (SBU) Trade Relationship: In January 2002, President Bush
    and then-Prime Minister Ecevit committed to enhance the
    bilateral economic relationship.  One pillar of that
    initiative is superb cooperation on building an East-West
    energy corridor to bring Caspian oil and gas through Turkey
    to the West.  The U.S. administration has also submitted
    Qualifying Industrial Zone (QIZ) legislation to the Congress.
     Turkish expectations about US economic support remain high,
    particularly in the context of a possible Iraq operation.
    They are looking to the U.S. to provide substantial financial
    support to offset expected losses and keep the overall
    economy afloat, and to offer new trade initiatives to boost
    exports and offset possible job losses.  In the Turkish view,
    both types of assistance are essential for the government
    justify cooperation in the face of widespread public
    opposition to an operation.
    PEARSON

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