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### Viewing cable 05PRETORIA3298, SOUTH AFRICA: MINERALS AND ENERGY NEWSLETTER

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05PRETORIA3298 | 2005-08-17 08:54 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Pretoria

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PRETORIA 003298

    SIPDIS

    STATE PLEASE PASS USAID
    STATE PLEASE PASS USGS

    E.O.   12958: N/A
    TAGS: EPET ENRG EINV EIND ETRD ECON SF
    SUBJECT:  SOUTH  AFRICA: MINERALS AND  ENERGY  NEWSLETTER
    "THE ASSAY" - ISSUE 7, JULY 2005

    REF: A) PRETORIA 3049, B) PRETORIA 2998

    THIS CABLE IS NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION

    ¶1. (U) Introduction:  The purpose of this monthly
    newsletter, initiated in January 2004, is to highlight
    minerals and energy developments in South Africa.  This
    includes trade and investment as well as supply.  South
    Africa hosts world-class deposits of gold, diamonds,
    platinum group metals, chromium, zinc, titanium,
    vanadium, iron, manganese, antimony, vermiculite, zircon,
    alumino-silicates, fluorspar and phosphate rock, and is a
    major exporter of steam coal.  South Africa is also a
    leading producer and exporter of ferroalloys of chromium,
    vanadium, and manganese.  The information contained in
    the newsletters is based on public sources and does not
    reflect the views of the United States Government.  End
    introduction.

    ---
    Key
    ---
    ¶2. (U) Key to some of the terminology and abbreviations
    used is given to facilitate understanding.

    BEE (Black Economic Empowerment) - the scheme whereby the
    South African Government promotes black participation in
    business.

    -    t = tons,
    -    t/d = tons per day,
    -    c/l = cents per liter,
    -    t/m = tons per month,
    -    t/y = tons per year,
    -    oz = troy ounces (31.1 grams),
    -    cmg = centimeter grams,
    -    mcf = million cubic feet,
    -    tcf = trillion cubic feet,
    -    R = SA currency (rand),
    -    MW = megawatts,
    -    kt = thousand tons,
    -    bbl/d = barrels per day,
    -    MW = megawatts,
    -    PGM = platinum group metals.

    ----------
    HOT ISSUES
    ----------

    First Regional Electricity Distributor Launched
    --------------------------------------------- --
    ¶3. (U) On July 4 in Cape Town, newly appointed Minister
    of Minerals and Energy Lindiwe Hendricks launched the
    first of South Africa's proposed six regional electricity
    distributors (REDs).  In order to meet President Mbeki's
    deadline of July 1 for the establishment of the first
    RED, the Cape Town Metro area was chosen as the nucleus
    for this RED - to be known as RED ONE.  Over the next six
    to eighteen months negotiations and legal amendments will
    be required to persuade the other 39 municipalities in
    the region as well as Eskom to voluntarily join the new
    entity, to ringfence their electricity distribution
    assets and operations, and to transfer assets and staff
    to RED ONE.  Although the other five REDs may require
    some unique manipulations, RED ONE will serve as the
    prototype.  The President has stated that all the six
    REDs must be in place by February 2007, but legal,
    constitutional, commercial, and operational hurdles still
    must be resolved

    -------
    NUCLEAR
    -------

    SAFARI Reactor Conversion
    -------------------------
    ¶4. (U) In a July 19 news release, Minerals and Energy
    Minister Lindiwe Hendricks announced that the Safari-1
    nuclear research reactor at Pelindaba outside Pretoria
    would, in line with international trends, phase out the
    use of highly enriched uranium (HEU) fuel - greater than
    20% U-235 - in favor of low enriched uranium (LEU).  She
    said that the state-owned Nuclear Energy Corporation
    (NECSA) would convert its research reactor fuel
    manufacturing plant over the next three years, and that
    this marked another milestone in government's program to
    ensure the safety of nuclear materials.  The remaining
    HEU would be applied to the manufacture of diagnostic
    medical isotopes, mainly Molybdenum-99.  SAFARI
    conversion ensures medical isotope production for a
    longer period, the Minister said.
    -----------
    ELECTRICITY
    -----------

    Eskom Signs Siemens and Re-opens Camden
    ---------------------------------------
    ¶5. (U) With the signing of a $286 million contract with
    Siemens on July 22, Eskom is on course to carry out its
    mandate to provide new power generation capacity.  Under
    the contract, Siemens will supply seven open cycle gas
    turbines for two new diesel powered stations to be built
    in the Western Cape Province for peak capacity.  The two
    power stations will have a combined capacity of more than
    1,000 MW and together cost about $600 million to build.
    A 588 MW station will be built in Atlantis on the west
    coast and a 440 MW station will be built at Mossel Bay on
    the south coast.  Siemens must design, manufacture, and
    commission the turbines by April 2007.  This will help
    meet the projected increase of 2,500 MW in peaking
    capacity required by 2010.  To meet the projected
    increase in base load demand, three mothballed coal-fired
    stations will be brought back into service at Camden,
    Grootvlei, and Komati.  These plants have a combined
    capacity of 3,540 MW.  Camden started operating
    commercially at the beginning of July for the first time
    in 15 years.  The Managing Director of Eskom Enterprises
    Brian Dames said that these projects were all part of
    Eskom's $3.3 billion capital expenditure program approved
    by the board last year.

    ¶6. (U) In an unrelated matter, Eskom has signed a two-
    year wage agreement with the National Union of
    Metalworkers (Numsa) for an annual pay increase of 6.5%
    for each year.  This is above the current official
    inflation rate of about 3.9%.

    ----
    COAL
    ----

    Old King Coal
    -------------
    ¶7. (U) Coal was South Africa's most valuable mineral
    mined in April, exceeding the value for both the gold and
    platinum group metals.  The value of coal sales in April
    2005 was $412 million compared to $387 million for gold
    and $380 million for PGMs.  For the period February 2005
    to April 2005, year-on-year (y/y) coal sales have risen
    by 13.8%, while PGM sales have fallen by 4.0% and gold
    sales have plunged by 12.3%.

    ----
    FUEL
    ----

    Fuel Prices Continue to Break Records
    -------------------------------------
    ¶8. (U) On August 3, the Department of Minerals and Energy
    (DME) again increased the retail price of gasoline in
    rand terms by 5.0% and the wholesale prices of diesel and
    kerosene by an average of 3.1% and 3.7%, respectively.
    This is on top of the July 6 increases of 5.7%, 10.5% and
    8.9%, respectively.  The benefit obtained from a slight
    strengthening of the rand was overshadowed by the
    increase in the price of crude oil, which was totally
    responsible for the latest price increases.

    ------
    MINING
    ------

    T'is the Season of Labor Discontent
    -----------------------------------
    ¶9. (U) The season for wage negotiations in the mining,
    steel and electricity industries has kicked off with the
    usual extreme positions adopted by management and labor -
    management offering wage increases as low as 2.5%, and
    labor demanding as high as 20%.  The Chamber of Mines,
    representing the gold and coal mining industries, has
    offered workers wage increases of 2.5% and 4%,
    respectively.  This contrasts with the individual union
    demands - Solidarity's 12.3%, the National Union of
    Mineworkers' (NUM) 20%, and the United Association of
    South Africa's 12%.  The gold mining industry during the
    last two negotiations agreed to wage increases of 8-10%,
    significantly above the then inflation rate of 5-6%.  In
    light of the poor income performance of gold, management
    is determined to hold to the inflation rate, currently
    running at about 3.9% as calculated by the South African
    Reserve Bank's CPIX index (consumer price inflation less
    interest costs).

    ¶10. (U) Negotiations for the gold mines appear to have
    reached an impasse and the unions have threatened to take
    some 100,000 workers out on strike as of August 7 if the
    mines do not up their offer.  If this comes to pass it
    will be the first industry wide strike since 1987, which
    lasted for 21 days.  The Chamber of Mines, representing a
    large chunk of South Africa's gold producers, has offered
    wage increases of 5% in categories 3 and 4, and 4.5% in
    the higher job categories, as well as a 0.5% increase in
    employers' provident fund contributions and a 10%
    increase in the employees' living out allowance.
    Mantashe says the NUM and other unions are demanding a
    12% increase in wages.

    ¶11. (U) To counter the Reserve Bank's official inflation
    rate figure of 3.9%, Solidarity developed a "mine worker
    inflation index" estimated to be 5.7% for the year to May
    ¶2005.  Solidarity economist Lullu Krugel said that the
    CPIX measure underestimated the inflation position for
    mine workers because the weighting was last adjusted in
    ¶2001.  New weights for oil, steel and property prices
    were not factored in, and that while administered prices
    (water, electricity, transport, telephone, fuel) rose by
    12.4% in 2004, they were underestimated.

    ¶12. (U) In the meantime, the National Union of
    Metalworkers (Numsa) and Solidarity went on a three-day
    pay strike at the Anglo American's subsidiary Highveld
    Steel and Vanadium on July 27.  The union's demanded an
    8% increase but settled for 6% on July 29.  Highveld is
    the world's largest producer of vanadium products.  The
    plant annually produces some 900,000 tons of steel, 4.4
    million kg of Vanadium Pentoxide (V2O5) and 2.1 million
    kg of Ferrovanadium.  Additionally, the three major
    platinum producers (Anglo Platinum, Impala Platinum and
    Lonhro Platinum) have yet to settle with their unions.

    ¶13. (U) (Note: Update on the Gold Miner's Strike.  On
    August 12, the gold miner strike came to an end.  The
    strike lasted for four days compared to the 21 days in
    1987, so that was a blessing for the industry and the
    economy - gold still accounts for about 10% of South
    Africa's export earnings.  As negotiations go, neither
    side got what they wanted and in truth some political
    pressure may have been brought to bear on both sides for
    a quick, affordable and acceptable settlement.  The
    agreement covers two years.  For the first year the
    following will take effect:

    - wage increase of 6% to 7% with the latter for the
      lowest earners;
    - living-out allowance of R1,000/month to be phased in
      over the two years;
    - 1% increase in the employer's contribution to the
      worker's Provident Fund;
    - R10,000 funeral cover per miner.

    For the second year the wage increase will equal the
    inflation rate plus 1%, with a minimum increase of 5% for
    higher paid workers and 5.5% for lower paid workers.  No
    settlement has yet been achieved in either the platinum
    or coal sectors, but the gap has narrowed.  End Note.)

    -----------
    ENVIRONMENT
    -----------

    South African Companies Target Kyoto Market
    -------------------------------------------
    ¶14. (U) Four Johannesburg Security Exchange (JSE)-listed
    companies stand to earn $99 million under the Kyoto
    Protocol if their emission reduction projects are
    approved by the EU Commission.  Under the Clean
    Development Mechanism South Africa can, on behalf of
    these industries, buy and sell Certified Emission
    Reductions (CERs) for greenhouse gases.  The current
    price is about $7 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent
    (CDE).  Anglo American's Highveld Steel & Vanadium
    propose to cut emissions by 12.4 mt per year to earn
    $86.8 million.  Mittal Steel proposes to cut 763,960 t
    through a waste-to-electricity project and earn $5.3
    million.  African Explosives propose to cut gas emissions
    from nitric acid production by 260,000 t to earn $1.8
    million.  Omnia Fertilizer proposes to cut annual nitric
    oxide emissions at its Sasolburg plant by 670,000 t to
    earn $4.7 million.  The income will be used to upgrade
    existing plants to meet emission requirements.

    ¶15. (U) According to Lwazikazi Tyani, the Minerals and
    Energy Director for the Clean Development Mechanism, the
    governments of Japan, Britain, Germany, Denmark, Canada,
    and France have expressed interest in South African CERs.
    Andre de Nysschen, Highveld's Chief Executive said that
    the Clean Development Mechanism was attractive to steel
    makers as a means of making capital-intensive emission
    reduction projects more affordable.  Graham Edwards,
    Managing Director of African Explosives, estimated that
    capital expenditures for his company would total
    $800,000, but "we have the potential to earn $1.9
    million."
    ----------------
    RENEWABLE ENERGY
    ----------------

    A Darling Wind Farm in the Cape
    -------------------------------
    ¶16. (U) On July 13, Environmental Affairs Minister
    Marthinus van Schalkwyk dismissed the only appeal against
    his February approval of a $10 million project to erect
    four Danish-designed wind turbines at Darling in the
    Western Cape Province.  The proposed development entails
    the erection of four wind turbines with a total power
    capacity of about 5.2 MW, enough to supply the small town
    of Darling with electricity in summer when demand is
    fairly low and winds are constant.  This will be the
    first wind power generating facility developed by a
    private company that feeds into the nation's power grid.
    Eskom, the power utility, is also developing an
    experimental wind farm at Klipheuwel in the Western Cape,
    well known for the strength and frequency of its winds.
    These developments are in line with the government's
    policy to diversify energy sources and for renewable
    energy to contribute 5% of total energy supply by 2012.
    FRAZER

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