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### Viewing cable 05PRETORIA4829, SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER December 9 2005

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05PRETORIA4829 | 2005-12-09 11:29 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Pretoria

`

    VZCZCXRO9932
    RR RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR
    DE RUEHSA #4829/01 3431129
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 091129Z DEC 05
    FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0415
    INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
    RUCPCIM/CIMS NTDB WASHDC
    RUCPDC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 004829

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR AF/S/MTABLER-STONE; AF/EPS; EB/IFD/OMA
    USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/MAC/AME/OA/DIEMOND
    TREASURY FOR OAISA/RALYEA/CUSHMAN
    USTR FOR COLEMAN

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EINV EFIN ETRD BEXP KTDB PGOV SF
    SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER December 9 2005
    ISSUE

     ¶1. Summary.  Each week, Embassy Pretoria publishes an
     economic newsletter based on South African press reports.
     Comments and analysis do not necessarily reflect the
     opinion of the U.S. Government.  Topics of this week's
     newsletter are:

     -  Interest Rates Remain Unchanged;
     -  October Manufacturing Growth Slows to 0.3%;
     -  Moderate House Price Growth Continues;
     -  South Africans Abroad Keep Contacts;
     -  Business Confidence Still High;
     -  South African Teacher Shortage Looms;
     -  Competition Commission Found Higher Car Prices but no
     Legal Case; and
     -  SA Wants to be Africa's Services Hub but Finds High IT
     Costs a Barrier;
     End Summary.

     Interest Rates Remain Unchanged
     -------------------------------

     ¶2.  Citing improved inflationary outlook, the Monetary
     Policy Committee (MPC) decided to leave interest rates
     unchanged, with the repurchase rate remaining at 7%.
     Inflation excluding mortgage costs (CPIX) has been
     declining since August 2005, even with substantially
     higher petroleum prices.  October's CPIX inflation dropped
     to 4.4% compared to August's inflation of 4.8%.  Food,
     clothing and furniture prices have shown recent declines
     and even services inflation have been well within the 3-6%
     target, with October's growth at 5.2%.  The MPC now
     expects CPIX to reach 5% by the end of 2007, compared to
     5.3% at the October MPC meeting.  In addition,
     inflationary expectations came in lower compared to
     expectations at the October MPC meeting.  According to the
     inflation expectations survey conducted by the Bureau for
     Economic Research (BER), CPIX inflation expectations
     remain unchanged in 4th quarter 2005 compared to the
     previous quarter, with inflation expected at 5.2% for both
     2006 and 2007.  The previous BER survey expected 2007
     inflation at 5.4%.  The MPC also noted signs of moderating
     consumer demand, with vehicle sales, manufacturing
     production, money supply and credit growth all
     experiencing slowing growth.  The MPC cited an increasing
     current account deficit as the primary risk, although it
     noted that so far the deficits have been financed by
     capital inflows.  Market expectations thought that the MPC
     would leave interest rates unchanged in December.  Source:
     Monetary Policy Statement, South African Reserve Bank,
     December 8; Standard Bank, MPC Alert, December 8.

     October Manufacturing Growth Slows to 0.3%
     ------------------------------------------

     ¶3.  Manufacturing growth slowed to an 18-month low of 0.3%
     (y/y) in October compared to September's growth of 5.6%,
     according to Statistics SA.  On a monthly basis,
     manufacturing output fell by 4.9% (seasonally adjusted).
     Following the latest Investec Purchasing Managers Index
     (PMI) figures, a leading indicator of manufacturing
     activity, the outlook for the manufacturing sector remains
     uncertain in the short term.  PMI declined to 50 index
     points in November, making it the fourth consecutive month
     it has declined.  Growth in manufacturing production has
     been supported by strengthening domestic demand since late
     2003, but as consumer demand growth flattens, the
     manufacturing sector is once again exposed to exchange
     rate risks.  Domestic demand accounts for 80% of the
     manufacturing market, and there are indications that the
     strength in consumer spending may be abating.  Borrowing
     growth slowed to a seven-month low of 19.5% in October as
     consumers' debt levels increased to a record 62% of
     disposable income in the second quarter 2005.  The rand
     has strengthened 9.4% since June 2005, leading to recent
     export decline of 11% in October.  The manufacturing
     sector is the 2nd largest in South Africa (after the
     service sector), accounting for 16% of the economy.
     Source:  Business Report and Business Day, December 8;
     Standard Bank, Manufacturing Unpacked, December 7.

     Moderate House Price Growth Continues
     -------------------------------------

     ¶4.  According to ABSA, nominal house-price growth reached

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     14.7% in November, the lowest year-on-year growth since
     mid-2002, compared to 16.2% in October.  The declining
     growth trend, which started after house-price growth
     peaked at 35.5% in October 2004, may allow first-time
     buyers and middle-income consumers to enter the market.
     This trend could extend strong residential property demand
     if interest rates remain stable.  Standard Bank's
     residential property report for the last quarter 2005 also
     confirmed a declining house-price growth trend, saying
     that according to its home-loan database, house prices
     grew 21.5% from a peak of 35.5% in November 2004.  Source:
     Business Day, December 6.

     South Africans Abroad Keep Contact
     ----------------------------------

     ¶5.  Most South Africans living abroad have not completely
     cut ties with the country, with 77% of them retaining
     their South African investments, 69% maintaining South
     African bank accounts, and 32% owning houses, according to
     the Homecoming Revolution, sponsored by the First National
     Bank.  In addition, 81% of respondents said they intended
     to return to South Africa in the future.  Homecoming
     Revolution Managing Director Martine Schaffer said the
     research did not ask about the skills of the respondents,
     and could not give a breakdown of the sectors likely to
     benefit from the homecoming.  The survey was conducted on
     a group of 1192 respondents.  The survey found that the
     main reasons for reluctance to return to South Africa were
     crime (44%), poorer quality of life (20%), affirmative
     action and black economic empowerment policies (19%), and
     lack of job opportunities (15%).  Source:  Business Day,
     December 6.

     Business Confidence Still High
     ------------------------------

     ¶6.  Business confidence remained high in November due to
     strong domestic demand, and was likely to retain these
     levels barring a hike in interest rates.  The South
     African Chamber of Business' (SACOB) business confidence
     index rose slightly to 126.5 in November, up from 126 in
     October.  The SACOB index has remained stable for the past
     four months.  Over the past 15 months, it has recorded a
     spread of only six index points between its lowest and
     highest levels.  SACOB economist Richard Downing said the
     positive financial environment had led to the higher level
     of business confidence and that low interest rates and low
     inflation supported confidence remaining high.  Plans to
     increase the economy's growth rate to 6% will have to
     increase supply potential.  The ratio of investment to
     gross domestic product (GDP) is currently at about 17%,
     and will need to be above 20% to achieve sustainable 6%
     economic growth.  Source:  Business Day, December 7.

     South African Teacher Shortage Looms
     ------------------------------------

     ¶7.  South Africa faces a teacher shortage at a time when
     pupil numbers are increasing, according to Mary Metcalfe,
     head of the University of Witwatersrand's School of
     Education.  South Africa will have few teachers in the 30-
     34 age group and fewer than 20,000 aged 35-39 due to a
     12.7% HIV prevalence rate among teachers, up to 21,000
     South African teachers leaving the profession, and
     upcoming retirements.  Metcalfe asserted that South Africa
     should have 25,000 teachers qualifying each year compared
     to the 5,000 teacher qualifying currently.  South Africa's
     Department of Education has stated that there is no
     teacher shortage, as there are enough unemployed or
     underemployed teachers to avert any shortage.  Source:
     Business Day, December 7.

     Competition Commission Found Higher Car Prices but no
     Legal Case
     --------------------------------------------- --------

     ¶8.  The Competition Commission found that car prices in
     South Africa were higher, but did not find justification
     for legal actions against car manufacturers, as the
     companies were not defined as dominant players according
     to South Africa's competition law.  The 18-month-long
     investigation into excessive pricing showed that cars in
     South Africa cost about 14% more than in Europe.  The

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     Commission announced, however, that it had entered into
     settlement agreements with six car makers and importers
     relating to earlier investigations into collusion and
     minimum resale pricing in the industry.  General Motors
     (GM), Nissan, DaimlerChrysler, Citron, Volkswagen and its
     Gauteng dealers, along with Subaru, would pay a collective
     administrative penalty of R31.6 million ($5 million, using
     6.5 rands per dollar).  By accepting settlement
     agreements, these companies avoided further investigation
     and possible prosecution by the Competition Tribunal.  The
     Commission has also found evidence of anticompetitive
     behavior by BMW, but said it was still negotiating with
     the company.  Much of the Commission's findings in its
     investigations related to a high level of control car
     makers have over dealerships.  The National Automotive
     Dealers' Association welcomed the Commission's requirement
     that car makers that had entered into settlement
     agreements had to review dealer franchise agreements.
     Source:  Business Day, December 8.

     SA Wants to be Africa's Services Hub but Finds High IT
     Costs a Barrier
     --------------------------------------------- ---------

     ¶9.  South Africa has been trying to position itself as the
     business services hub on the continent, but high
     telecommunications costs and skills shortage have
     constrained local service providers from competing
     successfully in the global market, according to Raymond
     Ngcobo, the head of the Strategic Competitiveness Unit in
     the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI).  Over the next
     three years, Ngcobo said the government would give
     priority to business process outsourcing, financial
     services, tourism and construction as these sectors had
     the potential to create jobs.  As part of the plans to
     accelerate growth to a sustainable 6% by 2010, the DTI was
     drafting a services strategy that would address
     bottlenecks such as exorbitant telecoms costs and
     infrastructure-related constraints.  Between 2000 and
     2004, global trade in services grew by 8.5% despite the
     tight regulation of the market by many countries.  Source:
     Business Day and Business Report, December 8.

     TEITELBAUM

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