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### Viewing cable 05PARIS2663, EU REFERENDUM AS PLEBICITE ON JACQUES CHIRAC AND

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05PARIS2663 | 2005-04-19 18:06 | 2011-08-24 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Paris

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 002663

    SIPDIS

    DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, DRL/IL AND INR/EUR
    AND EB
    DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB
    DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI
    SUBJECT: EU REFERENDUM AS PLEBICITE ON JACQUES CHIRAC AND
    HIS LEADERSHIP

    REF: A. (A) PARIS 2604
         ¶B. (B) PARIS 2516
         ¶C. (C)PARIS 2205
         ¶D. (D) PARIS 1649
         ¶E. (E) PARIS 1230

    SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED -- NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION

    SUMMARY
    ------
    ¶1.  (SBU) France's referendum on a proposed Constitution for
    the EU could be shaping up into a nationwide vote of no
    confidence in Chirac and his leadership.  Chirac has been
    President of France since 1995, and may well be aiming to run
    for a third term.  For many voters across the electoral
    spectrum, Chirac and those around him have come to epitomize
    the failures of France's elite.  The referendum offers a
    large swath of voters a vehicle to express their alienation
    from and resentment toward that "political class."  For
    center-left voters, who were "forced" to vote for Chirac in
    his second round presidential run-off against extreme-right
    candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2002, the reluctance to "vote
    for him again" by endorsing Chirac in his support of the EU
    Constitution is particularly strong.  In all, a fusion of
    anxiety about economic conditions, resistance to specific
    reform proposals, frustration at ineffective institutions,
    anger at the political class, and partisan opposition to
    Chirac and his party are transforming a referendum about a
    Constitution for Europe into a plebiscite about Jacques
    Chirac and his leadership.  END SUMMARY.

    AMALGAM OF MOTIVATIONS
    ----------------------
    ¶2.  (SBU) The French electorate is in a particularly sour and
    anxious mood (reftels B and C).  Opponents of the proposed
    constitution cite a slew of reasons for voting against it,
    many of which are not related to the constitution, but rather
    to domestic political concerns.  This combination threatens
    to turn the May 29 referendum on the EU Constitution into a
    vote of no confidence in Jacques Chirac and his Presidency.
    Those who plan to vote 'no,' primarily out of domestic
    political concerns, offer a variety of reasons for doing so.
    Some oppose specific reform proposals of the government of
    Chirac's Prime Minister, Jean-Pierre Raffarin; others'
    partisan allegiance opposes them to Chirac and his party;
    still others -- in a way that goes beyond policy disagreement
    and partisan opposition -- are deeply discontented with
    Chirac's governance and with what they see as a declining
    quality of life in France.  This tendency cuts across
    political party lines, grouping elements of mainstream
    center-right and center-left voters with those further to the
    right and left, and with those on the extremes subject to the
    populist, xenophobic current always present on the French
    political scene.

    POPULIST FURY
    -------------
    ¶3.  (SBU) The discontent that runs across the electorate, on
    the far right, becomes pure populist resentment against
    "them."  Its focus in connection with the referendum is on
    Jacques Chirac and the political class, but it quickly widens
    out to include Brussels technocrats, "pointy-headed
    intellectuals," immigrants, foreigners, etc.  For example, in
    a TV debate April 13 on the proposed Constitution, Marine le
    Pen, daughter of Jean-Marie le Pen, leader of the extremist
    National Front (FN) party, deploying the coded vitriol that
    is the FN's stock-in-trade, derided both the center-left, and
    Chirac and the center-right, for supporting the proposed
    Constitution only because they were interested in "serving
    the Europe of money."

    DISCONTENT ACROSS THE CENTER
    ----------------------------
    ¶4.  (SBU) At a rally on April 16, Union for a Popular
    Movement (UMP) party President Nicolas Sarkozy summed up the
    electorate's restive mood saying, "The French feel like
    turning over the table" (and added, that if they reject the
    proposed Constitution they "will have turned it over on
    themselves").  Across the center of the electorate,
    discontent coalesces around a sense that France's
    institutions are not up to the job of addressing the
    country's economic and social problems and that the political
    class that presides over these institutions is too complacent
    and incapable of making effective use of them.  The
    often-heard complaint that the public education system --
    which once held pride of place among the civic institutions
    of The Republic -- "is crumbling," is emblematic of these
    voters' deep disillusionment.  If many center-right and
    center-left voters, who share this feeling of being let down
    by their country and its leaders, vote 'no' to express it,
    the hopes of the 'yes' camp could well be bitterly
    disappointed May 29.

    REJECTION OF THE POLITICAL CLASS
    --------------------------------
    ¶5.  (SBU) France's political class, bred in a handful of
    state "grande ecoles" (like the National School of
    Administration (ENA) and private, feeder institutions (such
    as the Institute of Political Studies (Sciences-Po), and then
    drawn into long political careers, often near the very top of
    France's governmental institutions, is viewed with suspicion
    by ordinary people.  The "France of below" sees the "France
    of above" as inaccessible, unaccountable, inbred, and
    self-serving.  The relatively recent practice of
    "co-habitation" (president and prime minister from opposing
    parties) has boosted public perception of a single elite,
    blurring the distinction between left and right.  Jacques
    Chirac, and many of the figures closely associated with him,
    such as Interior Minister Dominique de Villepin, fit the mold
    of this elite to a tee.  Recently, Finance Minister Herve
    Gaymard was forced to resign (reftel E), for having rented a
    luxurious apartment to house himself and his family at state
    expense.  Scandals such as this one confirm popular
    suspicions that this French nomenklatura is out of touch with
    the lives of ordinary people.  President Chirac's evident
    incomprehension of young voters' concerns during a
    long-awaited television appearance April 14 (reftel A)
    confirmed for many viewers the gulf between elite and public.
     Those particularly resentful of this class and its
    privileges, or outraged by its recent excesses, or just
    disappointed by its aloofness, could well vote 'no' on May 29
    to express their displeasure.

    AMONG SOCIALISTS -- REMEMBERING MAY 2002
    ----------------------------------------
    ¶6.  (SBU) At Socialist Party (PS) vote-'yes' rallies,
    National Secretary Francois Hollande and supporters such as
    mayor of Lille Martine Aubry, hammer away at the theme that
    "2007 is the time to sanction Chirac and Raffarin."  For many
    center-left voters the prospect of -- again -- supporting
    Jacques Chirac and the "liberal" center-right is dismaying.
    Among them, the memory of May 2002 is still fresh; then, in a
    second-round presidential run-off, they were "forced" to vote
    for Chirac against right-wing extremist, Jean-Marie le Pen --
    and they don't want to hand Chirac another "undeserved"
    victory.  These voters, who are not so much against the
    Constitution as they are repulsed by the idea of voting again
    in a way that supports Chirac, are being avidly courted by
    both Chirac and the PS' pro-'yes' leadership.  Focusing these
    voters on affirming their support for Europe and not their
    partisan opposition to Chirac and the center-right is key to
    preventing the referendum from becoming a plebiscite.
    Current polls, which show 'no' leading among center-left
    voters by nearly 60 percent, reflect how strongly the
    'sanction Chirac' feeling runs on the center-left.  That the
    center-left has already roundly punished Chirac and the
    center-right in two nationwide elections since 2002 (for
    Regional Councils and European Parliamentarians both in
    2004), is further evidence of the strength and persistence of
    anti-Chirac feeling.

    AGAINST RAFFARIN'S REFORMS
    --------------------------
    ¶7.  (SBU) The nationwide general strike on March 10 (reftel
    D), led by public sector unions revealed the range and
    variety of the constituencies opposed to specific reform
    proposals of the Raffarin government.  Employees from the
    beleaguered public health, public education and public
    transportation systems, abetted by high school students,
    farmers groups and clerical and staff employees of some key
    ministries (including the Foreign Ministry) are intent on
    voting 'no' in parochial opposition to government reform
    policies that would affect them.
    COMMENT
    -------
    ¶8.  (SBU) Since President Chirac's disappointing TV
    performance April 14, Interior Minister Dominique de Villepin
    has emerged -- at Chirac's direction -- as the leading
    spokesperson of the government's pro-'yes' campaign.  In his
    public statements and debate appearances, Villepin has been
    insistently sounding the theme that, after the referendum,
    government domestic policy will be re-energized and
    re-focused because "we have heard what the French people are
    telling us."  This promise of committed attention to the
    domestic issues that dominate voter preoccupation is,
    clearly, an effort to deflect the discontented from their
    intention to use the referendum as a vote of no confidence.
    It remains to be seen if Villepin will be more successful
    than Chirac and Raffarin have been in pulling voters'
    attention away from the economic insecurities, political
    dissatisfactions and social resentments -- that Chirac and
    the Raffarin government have come to epitomize.  Recasting
    voters' current approach to the referendum -- convincing them
    to consider the proposed constitution and answer the question
    asked May 29 -- is key to reclaiming the referendum from the
    plebiscite on Jacques Chirac and his leadership that it is
    threatening to become.  END COMMENT.
    WOLFF

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