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### Viewing cable 05FRANKFURT2671, Structures and Trends in German Banking Industry:

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05FRANKFURT2671 | 2005-04-05 13:08 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Consulate Frankfurt

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 FRANKFURT 002671

    SIPDIS

    SENSATIVE

    STATE FOR EUR PDAS RIES, EB, EUR/AGS, AND EUR/ERA
    STATE PASS FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD
    STATE PASS NSC
    TREASURY FOR DAS LEE
    TREASURY ALSO FOR ICN COX, HULL
    PARIS ALSO FOR OECD
    TREASURY FOR OCC RUTLEDGE, MCMAHON

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EFIN EUN
    SUBJECT: Structures and Trends in German Banking Industry:
    Bleak Outlook Gets Better; Consolidation Scenarios For A
    Financial Stronger System

    T-IA-F-05-018

    This cable is sensitive but unclassified.  Not/not for
    Internet distribution.

    Stability Pact Revision: Art Imitates Life

    Ref: (a) Warsaw 1108; (b) Warsaw 1624

    ¶1.    (SBU)  Summary: There is a lively debate about whether
      the relatively poor performance of the German banking sector
      is  related to its "three pillar" structure of (1) private
      commercial,  (2)  public  state  and  savings,   and   (3)
      cooperative banks.   The discussions were triggered by the
      continuing weak performance of the German banks relative to
      other  European banks. Although German banks  are  slowing
      recovering, the very large German banks no longer rank among
      the top tier European banks.

    ¶2.     (SBU)   The  German  Council  of  Economic  Advisors'
      examination  of  this structural question found  no  clear
      answers.  A more recent Frankfurt University study suggests
      that German banks have not been able to generate increases
      in  revenues as much as their EU competitors nor have they
      priced  credits according to risk, both attributed to  the
      intense   competition  offered  by  public   savings   and
      cooperative banks.

    ¶3.    (SBU)  Changes  are  underway in  the  German  banking
      sector,  but  none that would suggest an overhaul  of  the
      current system.  Consolidation will continue, but the  key
      question   is   how.   Current  market  wisdom   is   that
      consolidation will continue as in the past,  taking  place
      within  the  pillars.  The IMF asserted  that  opening  up
      consolidation across pillars would allow for market-oriented
      solutions for developing profitable products.  Even if some
      local  laws were changed to permit this, large  banks  are
      unlikely  to develop a robust national retail  network  by
      snapping  up  random  sales  of  a  few  regional  savings
      institutions. Cross border mergers could be another avenue,
      but also unlikely at this juncture.  More intriguing would
      be the possibility for increasing competition with savings
      banks  that arguably are structured and perform as  though
      they are one large banking entity.  If such competition were
      to  alter the present German banking system, the Frankfurt
      University study suggests such changes would come quickly.
      Time will tell. End Summary.

    Structure of the German Banking System
    --------------------------------------

    ¶4.    (SBU) The German banking system is characterized as  a
      bank-based financial system composed of three pillars.  Bank-
      based  means  that  enterprises, and  households,  finance
      themselves  via bank credits rather than via  the  capital
      market.   The balance sheet total of all German  banks  is
      roughly three times German GDP, extremely high compared to
      other  European countries. The three pillars  are  private
      credit banks (big banks and regional banks), public  banks
      (savings banks and State banks) and cooperatives (local and
      central cooperatives).

    ¶5.     (SBU)   Although   the  private  credit   banks   are
      individually large, together they account for a market share
      of  16% in terms of total balance sheet. Savings banks and
      their  regional lead institutes, the State banks,  have  a
      market share of more than one third.  By law, the business
      policy  of  the  savings  banks is  to  provide  financial
      resources to the population.  Thus, more than one third of
      total  assets  in  Germany  is  not  managed  by  economic
      objectives  such as profit maximization.   The  market  of
      savings  banks is locally restricted according to the  so-
      called  "regional principle."  Cooperative  banks  have  a
      market  share  of  approximately  12%.   Cooperatives  are
      distinguished  from  other banks by the  fact  that  their
      customers are also the owners of the banks by means of share
      certificates.   Apart  from that,  cooperatives  act  like
      savings  banks  as  they do their business  on  a  locally
      restricted  market  and  profit  from  co-operation  among
      themselves.

    Situation of German Banks: From Bleak to Better
    --------------------------------------------- --
    ¶6.    (SBU)  German banks have endured difficult conditions,
      suffering from an increasing number of credit losses as  a
      result of the economic downturn, stock market collapse, and
      a record high number of insolvencies.  The return on capital
      of German banks fell sharply in 2003 to 0.73% from 11.2% in
      ¶1999.  Profitability has developed quite differently in the
      three  bank  groups: Big banks, state  banks  and  central
      cooperatives recorded a severe reduction of earnings, with
      negative returns on capital ranging from 4-6%, while savings
      banks and local cooperatives increased their profit for the
      financial year experiencing a return on capital of 11%.

    ¶7.    (SBU)  One reason savings banks and local cooperatives
      turned  out  good results is because they are anchored  in
      retail  banking,  deriving most of their income  from  net
      interest earnings. Only a small part of their revenues are
      from more volatile activities, such as trading or fee-based
      business.   In contrast, several years ago the  big  banks
      shunned  retail  activity and concentrated  on  investment
      banking.  The result is well known: large banks destroyed a
      considerable amount of their economic value, relegating most
      of them to the second tier of European banks.

    ¶8.    (SBU) The German Bundesbank expects an improvement  of
      the bank's earnings performance in 2004 and 2005 during the
      anticipated economic upturn.  Improved earnings are likely
      as  many banks have introduced cost reduction programs  in
      recent years that are now showing results.  Apart from that,
      value  adjustments  taken  in  2003  will  decrease   risk
      provisions for the credit business for 2004 and 2005.   The
      outlook for revenues is still uncertain, being dependent on
      the  economic cycle and trading business. These  potential
      improvements do not disguise the fact that the  return  on
      capital of German banks is very low in both historical and
      international comparison.

    Does  the  Weak  Performance Stem from  the  German  Banking
    Structure?
    --------------------------------------------- --------------

    ¶9.   (SBU) In its 2003 Financial System Stability Assessment
      of Germany the IMF posited the thesis that the tree-pillar-
      structure of the German banking system causes an inefficient
      use of resources.  The German Council of Economic Advisors
      investigated this thesis in its annual report for 2005. They
      found that the density of branches in Germany is very high
      compared  to  other banking systems, but that the  savings
      banks and the cooperatives profit from their respective co-
      operation  in core activities that allows them to  realize
      economies of scale. Thus, the Council concluded  that  the
      number of branches per inhabitant does not throw light upon
      the efficiency of the German banking system.

    ¶10.   (SBU) The Council considered that the high incident of
      mergers between German banks implied an inefficient use of
      capital. On the other hand, competition in banking appears
      to  be  keen, which should instill efficiency.   The  five
      biggest  institutes possess 22% of total  assets,  low  by
      international comparison, suggesting contestability of the
      market.  Apart from the U.S. with a concentration level of
      24%  and  Italy  with 27%, in all other big industrialized
      countries  the  largest banks enjoy  concentration  levels
      between 40% and 90%.  This result changes if savings banks
      and  cooperatives  are  no  longer  treated  as  separate,
      autonomous  units,  but a single banking  group.   If  all
      savings  banks and State banks were counted as one banking
      group,  the Council reckons it would be the largest credit
      institute  in  the world.  The market share  of  the  five
      biggest  institutes would amount to 67% of  total  assets,
      suggesting lower levels of competition.
    ¶11.   (SBU) A January 2005 study by the Frankfurt University
      suggests  that  the structure of German banking  may  have
      hindered its overall profitability.  While German banks have
      been  able  to reduce total operating expenses over  total
      assets, out-performing other EU banks, they have not be able
      to  generate  nearly as much revenue growth  as  their  EU
      competitors  from  both interest as well  as  non-interest
      income.  In addition, loan loss provisions in Germany have
      remained high while declining in other EU banking systems.
      High  provisions combined with declining interest  margins
      imply that, on average, German banks have not priced credit
      risk  appropriately, according to the study.  Low revenues
      and lower interest margins suggest robust competition - good
      for consumers but not good for banks' profitability. These
      results are a function of the large market share commanded
      by the public savings bank and cooperative banks.

    Changes Underway in German Banking
    ----------------------------------

    ¶12.   (SBU)  The  three-pillar system has been resistant  to
      change.  That does not mean that there are no changes afoot
      in   the  German  banking  industry.   Among  the  changes
      anticipated this year are:

         Continuation of consolidation. The number of banks  has
         declined  from 4,543 in 1987 to 2,466 in 2003  and  the
         number of branches per 100,000 people has declined from
         65  to  46 over roughly the same time period.  Much  of
         that   consolidation  has  taken   place   within   the
         cooperative bank sector.  For example, since  1999  the
         number  of  banks in Germany has declined by  769,  the
         number  of  cooperative banks dropped by 640 to  1,392.
         The  savings bank sector also shrunk according  to  the
         number  of  savings  banks by 89,  bringing  the  total
         number  of  savings banks to 489 at the  end  of  2003.
         These  consolidations  reflect  financially  larger  or
         stronger  neighboring  co-operative  or  savings  banks
         taking over weaker institutions.

         Designation of a new "big bank." The Post Bank that was
         recently privatized will be designated as a "big bank,"
         bringing  the total number to five.  The Post  Bank  is
         substantially different from the other large  banks  as
         it  has  an  extensive branch network that  covers  the
         entire country and concentrates in the retail sector.

         More  lending  to  retail and  SME's.  Big  banks  have
         shifted  their focus to give more attention  to  retail
         sector and SME lending.

         State  banks  to adopt and refine new business  models.
         This  adjustment is underway as these State banks  seek
         ways  to  continue operations without State guarantees.
         Some  are  merging with other state banks,  others  are
         seeking  new investors or spinning off their commercial
         operations from the public lending activities.  Private
         banks  have  argued  that the credit  rating  of  these
         institutions would weaken absent the state  guarantees,
         driving  up their financing costs and making them  less
         competitive.  However, preliminary judgments by  credit
         rating  agencies  suggest very little deterioration  in
         the  State  banks' creditworthiness so  far.  Retaining
         these  ratings will depend on successful implementation
         of their new models.

         Increased  competition in bond issuance business.  This
         will  result  from  the  new law on  Pfandbrief  (bonds
         backed  by  mortgages or public assets). The  law  will
         allow   all   banking  institutions   to   issue   such
         instruments,  not just mortgage banks  and  public  law
         banks. Pfandbrief issuance had been a growing activity,
         leading  Finance  Ministry officials believe  that  the
         legal    change   will   contribute   to   more    bank
         consolidation.  Bundesbank officials, however,  believe
         the  market  will not be as robust as before,  implying
         that opening up competition will not have a significant
         influence on the banking structure.
         Better  pricing  of credits to risks. The  new  risked-
         based  Basel  II  capital requirements,  likely  to  be
         adopted  by the European Parliament before the  end  of
         the  year, should result in more risk-sensitive pricing
         of  credits.  While this indicates higher credit  costs
         for  some  borrowers in the future,  as  the  Frankfurt
         University study indicates, the pricing of credits  has
         been  too low relative to banking risks.  This suggests
         that interest rate margins should increase.

    Consolidation Scenarios
    -----------------------

    ¶13.   (SBU)  The  notion  that the  predominance  of  public
      savings institutions is an impediment to consolidation and
      strengthening of the overall German banking sector was given
      support  by  the IMF.  In its report on Germany's  banking
      sector, IMF staff declared, "a reduction in existing legal
      and  other  barriers to restructuring,  within  or  across
      pillars, would expand the scope of possible market-oriented
      solutions."  Another IMF study shows that other  countries
      that  underwent banking sector restructuring witnessed  an
      increased  role by private banks, accompanied by financial
      strengthening.  This has intensified the debate about  the
      reforms of public sector banks.

    ¶14.   (SBU) It is controversial whether a high participation
      of  the government and the States are good or bad for  the
      German   banking  system.   Supporters  of  reforms   cite
      efficiency  losses for the whole system due to the  public
      participation.   Moreover,  in their  opinion,  government
      intervention cannot be justified from a regulatory point of
      view since there is no market failure.  Reform opponents, on
      the  other side, deny efficiency losses, referring to  the
      high return on capital of the savings banks. They point out
      that the predominance of profitable savings banks in Germany
      mirrors  the  structure of German industry to which  these
      banks lend, i.e. small and medium size "mittlestand" firms
      that are widely dispersed throughout the country.

    ¶15.    (SBU)  While  many  other  European  countries   have
      experienced  successful  restructuring  of  their  banking
      systems, the German situation is different in its remarkable
      resistance to change.  Whether this is due to the political
      inability to take necessary reforms or because the existing
      system, after weathering a heavy storm, is not so bad  and
      fills a need, are discussable points.  However, it is true
      that  local politicians are reluctant to give up  controls
      over  their local financial institution on which they  can
      rely for local lending and jobs.  On the other hand, if the
      savings banks are so good, then why should they be protected
      from competition by laws that restrict their ownership? The
      Frankfurt  University study differs from the IMF  view  in
      asserting that academic research does not make an a priori
      case  for  private banks, driven by shareholder value,  as
      delivering  superior performance in terms  of  growth  and
      welfare, than public banks.

    ¶16.  (SBU) Consolidation of the banking sector will continue
      and, most likely, contribute to its gradual strengthening.
      There are several consolidation scenarios.

         ¶A.   Within pillars:  Savings and cooperative banks would
           continue  to consolidate among themselves  as  weaker
           institutions  are  absorbed  by  larger   neighboring
           institutions, exploiting economies of scale through having
           one central location provide back office functions.  Mergers
           among large private banks appear less attractive as they
           cannot realize greater economies of scale, would face costs
           of redundant branch networks, and have little influence on
           the institution's overall competitiveness in light of the
           large market share commanded by public institutions.
         ¶B.   Across pillars: In some German states reform proposals
           were made on the back of the bad financial situation of the
           lender and communes.  The fact is, that the laws on savings
           banks  in  the individual lender allow for  different
           participation schemes of private institutions or persons at
           the public institutions.  One case that attracted attention
           was the attempt of the mayor from Stralsund to sell the
           savings bank of Stralsund. In the end this was prevented by
           the state government of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania by a
           change of legislation.  A recent example is the planned
           takeover of the Bank of Berlin (a private bank) by the
           Berliner   Volksbank   (a   cooperative)   and    the
           Mittelbrandenburgische Sparkasse in Postdam (a savings
           bank).  Such approaches to cross-pillar consolidation would
           be piecemeal, at best.  If a large private bank were to
           purchase such a savings bank, it would likely face intense
           competition as savings institutions from neighboring areas
           would move into the region.  Account holders fiercely loyal
           to savings institutions would shift accounts away from the
           procured thrift to the new one.  As one expert commented,
           private banks would find themselves in deeper competition
           than before, like "bailing water with a fish net."

         ¶C.    Product Consolidation: Rather than merging entire
           organizations, banks will join together to realize economies
           of scale by having joint products (like mortgages) or back
           office operations.

         ¶D.   Cross Border Mergers or Acquisitions: The European
           Central Bank's 2004 Report on EU Banking Structure points
           out that since the flurry of M&A activity in the run up to
           the adoption of the euro, M&A activity has been subdued and
           primarily confined to domestic consolidation.  However, in
           light of increased liquidity in the sector and the increased
           concentration of domestic markets, cross border M&A activity
           may increase.  Higher fixed investments associated with IT
           costs, more transparent accounts under the EU adopted
           International Accounting Standards, and the need to make
           more efficient use of capital under Basle II are other
           reasons that could drive such activity.  Although there has
           been a significant number of cross-border M&A activities in
           Germany, something on the scale that would alter the German
           banking landscape seems improbable at this time.  The large
           private banks do not appear to be attractive candidates for
           purchase, as suggested by weak revenue performance, low
           market share, and limited possibilities to trim costs.
           Again, the dominant position of savings and cooperative
           banks makes foreign entry into the German banking difficult.

         ¶E.   Increased Competition to Savings Banks: As noted above,
           the Economic Council hypothesized that if the savings banks
           were counted as one group, they would be the largest bank in
           Germany and the world.  The Frankfurt University study notes
           that the 482 public savings banks operate on the "regional
           principle," not engaging in competition between regions.
           State banks and Dekabank provide them services that enable
           individual savings bank to realize economies of scale.
           Considered from this point of view, German competition
           authorities should take a hand in breaking up what appears
           to be collusive market behavior, in the view of one banking
           expert, an unlikely prospect.  Alternatively a savings bank
           from another EU country could seek to crack the domestic
           German market by not respecting the regional principle. Or
           perhaps the Post Bank would adopt a more assertive strategy
           in its lending businesses.

    ¶17.   (SBU)  A  combination of many  if  not  all  of  these
      scenarios  should  play  out in  the  coming  years.   The
      Frankfurt University study holds out a tantalizing thought.
      It  suggests  that  the current banking structure  of  the
      savings  banks relies on complementary elements, like  the
      regional principle or reliance on economies of scale.  Since
      such  a  system  has strong dependencies, gradual  changes
      produce at least temporary welfare losses.  To their mind,
      this  suggests that if the system breaks down, the banking
      system "will inevitably also undergo far-reaching structural
      changes."  Even more tantalizing is their last thought: "We
      cannot  rule out that this might happen soon."  Time  will
      tell.

    ¶18.  (U) This message has been coordinated with US Embassy
      Berlin.

    ¶19.  (U) POC: James Wallar, Treasury Representative, e-mail
      wallarjg2@state.gov; tel. 49-(69)-7535-2431, fax 49-(69)-
      7535-2238

    Bodde

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