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### Viewing cable 05BRASILIA212, BRAZIL'S 2005 TRADE AGENDA: MORE OF THE SAME

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05BRASILIA212 | 2005-01-24 16:37 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Brasilia

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 BRASILIA 000212

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    STATE PLEASE PASS TO USTR FOR SCRONIN, KLEZNY
    NSC FOR MIKE DEMPSEY
    DEPT OF TREASURY FOR FPARODI
    USDOC FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/WH/DDEVITO/DANDERSON/EOLSON
    USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWAR D
    USDA FOR JB PENN, U/S, FFAS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ETRD BR WTRO
    SUBJECT: BRAZIL'S 2005 TRADE AGENDA: MORE OF THE SAME

    REF: A) BRASILIA 94 B) SAO PAULO 89 C) 04 BRASILIA

         3100 D) 04 BRASILIA 2882 E) 04 SAO PAULO 1659

    ¶1.   (U)  This cable has been coordinated with AmConsulate
    Sao Paulo.

    ¶2.  (SBU)  Summary and Introduction.  Changing the "geography
    of trade" has become a Lula administration hallmark.  Over
    the past two years, the GoB has aggressively used Brazilian
    and Mercosul trade policy to strengthen economic and
    political ties with other developing countries, in part to
    diversify Brazil's export markets, but more pointedly to
    develop strategic partnerships with countries that can help
    Brazil realize various geopolitical objectives.  Private
    sector critics claim the GoB's focus on developing country
    partners has diverted its attention from securing more
    lucrative economic opportunities through trade agreements
    with the EU or with the United States (See Ref A).
    Dissension within the government over trade policy is also
    still evident with Ministers Furlan (Development and Trade)
    and Rodrigues (Agriculture), who support the private sector
    perspective, at odds with the Foreign Ministry, whose trade
    strategy continues to enjoy the backing of President Lula.
    Recent criticism of GoB trade policy by Minister Furlan
    prompted a rebuttal by President Lula on January 18 in which
    he justified a continuation of current policy in order to
    further reduce the "dependence" of Brazil on the EU and the
    United States.  While there is widespread domestic support
    for the priority the GoB has assigned to the global WTO trade
    negotiations, substantial benefits from the Doha Round are
    only expected over the long-term.   A brief overview of
    Brazil's trade agenda for 2005 is presented below.  End
    Summary and Introduction.

    WTO - Doha Development Agenda

    ¶3.   (SBU) In public comments laying out GoB trade priorities
    for the coming year, Foreign Minister Amorim has stated
    explicitly that the WTO Doha Round is Brazil's top priority.
    In Amorim's view, the Doha Round represents an opportunity
    for Brazil to press for elimination or reduction of the worst
    trade distorting practices affecting global agricultural
    trade -- the key demand for Brazil given that agriculture
    accounted for about 42 percent of its exports, 34 percent of
    its GDP, and 37 percent of its employment in 2004.

    ¶4.   (SBU)  In the WTO, the GoB will continue to actively
    utilize its strategic partnerships with other developing
    countries.  The GoB is expected to maintain an assertive
    stance in Geneva on agriculture reform; Brazil's sometimes
    strident leadership of the G-20, even the failure of the
    Cancun Ministerial in 2003, are seen here as having paid off
    in Brazil's inclusion in the Five Interested Parties (FIPs)
    process and in the eventual substance of the July negotiating
    framework package.

    ¶5.   (SBU)  Amorim has acknowledged that negotiations on
    market access for industrial products and services must also
    proceed for a final package to emerge, suggesting that Brazil
    may negotiate on these issues as part of strategic coalitions
    formed around specific issues.  He has also warned that
    Brazil's posture in these and other areas may not always be
    defensive, pointing to GoB formulation of proposals relating
    to export credits and investment (local content
    requirements).  According to Ambassador Clodoaldo Hugueney,
    Brazil's top WTO negotiator, the GoB hopes the Doha
    negotiations can be wrapped up before the 2007 expiration of
    an extended TPA either undermines an ambitious outcome or
    causes an indeterminate delay in concluding the Round (Ref
    C).   (Note: Hugueney will soon be leaving his current post
    to replace Luiz Felipe de Seixas Correa as Ambassador to the
    WTO.)  While the nomination of Seixas Correa as WTO Director
    General may have been largely prompted by Brazil's interest
    in spoiling the candidacy of Uruguayan Carlos Perez del
    Castillo, the GoB would relish having a Brazilian diplomat in
    this key position during the final phase of the negotiations.

    Mercosul-EU
    ¶6.   (SBU) Amorim continues to list free trade talks with the
    European Union as a GoB priority.  The EU is Brazil's largest
    export market, absorbing $24 billion worth of its goods in
    2004, 25 percent of Brazil's total exports.  While Amorim
    conveys confidence that progress in the negotiations can be
    made in 2005, he has also suggested that the talks may
    proceed in tandem with the Doha negotiations.  Bilateral
    technical-level meetings were held December 2 last year in
    Rio de Janeiro and are expected again in February.  A meeting
    between Minister Amorim and UE Trade Commissioner Peter
    Mandelson in Davos at the end of January is meant to give
    impulse to a Ministerial slated for March that will set a
    work program for future discussions.

    ¶7.   (SBU) Many Brazilian analysts are skeptical that the two
    sides' differences can be bridged in 2005.  Negotiations
    broke down in October 2004 over inadequate offers put forward
    by both sides.  Mercosul's last offer was a retrenchment,
    expanding product coverage to 90 percent, but reducing the
    percentage receiving duty-free status from 87.5 percent to 82
    percent.  Mercosul offerings in government procurement, IPR
    (geographic indicators), and investment were also deemed
    insufficient by the EU, whose own offer capped certain
    Mercosul agricultural exports at a level below current trade
    flows.  Agricultural products, which account for roughly 70
    percent of Brazil's exports to the EU, have figured
    prominently in the negotiations.  While questioning the EU's
    commitment to substantial agricultural trade liberalization,
    Brazil's private sector, particularly those represented by
    Sao Paulo's FIESP industrial federation (whose companies
    generate 70 percent of the country's GDP) also fault Foreign
    Ministry inflexibility and Mercosul internal disarray for the
    breakdown in negotiations.

    Free Trade Area of the Americas

    ¶8.   (SBU) After FTAA negotiations went into abeyance in June
    of last year, the FTAA at times was absent from listings by
    Foreign Ministry officials of GoB trade priorities.  However,
    with the exchange of letters between out-going USTR Zoellick
    and Minister Amorim at the end of 2004, the FTAA has again
    crept onto the GoB trade agenda.  Official GoB remarks state
    a willingness to work in good faith with the U.S. as
    co-chairs to identify a way forward for the negotiations;
    Itamaraty highlights efforts for Amorim and Zoellick as well
    as for DUSTR Allgeier and his counterpart Ambassador Bahadian
    to meet to chart a course forward.

    ¶9.  (SBU)  However, this is less than a full embrace.  In
    recent interviews Amorim has again clarified that while an
    FTAA is desirable, it is not essential for Brazil.
    Describing the current FTAA impasse as caused by the USG's
    insistence in negotiating rules for IPR, services and
    investment without adequately addressing Brazil's demands on
    agricultural subsidies, Amorim has emphasized that improved
    access to the U.S. market is key for Brazil, and that a focus
    on market access for goods would facilitate the negotiations.
     Amorim also has reiterated that from Brazil's perspective,
    market access discussions with the U.S. need not be within
    the FTAA, but could also be pursued within a Mercosul-U.S.
    FTA.  The GoB position may have in fact hardened since last
    June, if, as top daily Folha suggests, President Lula
    believes he can prevail upon President Bush in a
    post-election environment to show greater flexibility on
    market access for key products, such as orange juice, sugar,
    steel and beef, if the U.S. is serious about moving the FTAA
    forward.

    ¶10.  (SBU) Further complicating the public FTAA debate is the
    reemergence of a (in our view, flawed) December 2003 Ministry
    of Planning study which concludes that under an FTAA the
    bilateral U.S.-Brazil trade balance would swing to $1 billion
    in the USG's favor (Ref B).  Although publicly Amorim claimed
    the study supports his reticent stance toward the FTAA,
    Antonio Simoes (the ForMin's Economic Advisor) admitted to
    Ecouns in a January 12 converstaion, that no study, no matter
    how well-designed, could accurately predict the impact of an
    FTAA upon trade flows.   Simoes, former head of Itamaraty's
    FTAA Office, added that sensationalist press reporting of
    items such as this only make it more difficult for the two
    sides to reach consensus.

    ¶11.  (SBU) While many economic analysts are not optimistic
    about near-term prospects for the FTAA, they argue that the
    FTAA is crucial for Brazil to avoid an erosion of 1) its
    relative level of competitiveness in the U.S. market
    vis-a-vis hemispheric competitors, and in other Latin markets
    vis-a-vis U.S. producers, and 2) its attractiveness as an FDI
    destination.  Export growth to the United States has not kept
    pace with the expansion of Brazil's exports overall; in 2004,
    Brazil's exports to the world grew by 32 percent to reach
    $96.5 billion, compared with a 20 percent increase in exports
    headed to the United States to total $20.0 billion.  In a
    study released November 4, 2004, former ambassador to the
    U.S. Rubens Barbosa and researchers from FIESP and the
    Institute of Studies of Trade and International Negotiations
    (Icone) claim Brazil's competitive position in the U.S.
    market vis-a-vis other regional partners is eroding and urge
    the GoB to address the issue in resumed FTAA negotiations
    (Ref B).  Some companies, including Dixie-Toga, whose
    president is head of Sao Paulo's AmCham, have made public
    their intention to consider investments in countries having
    trade agreements with the U.S., rather than expand domestic
    production.

    Canada

    ¶12.   (SBU) The substantive scope of soon to be launched
    trade talks with Canada, and their relation to the FTAA, are
    unclear.  A joint communique issued during the visit of
    Canada's Prime Minister, Paul Martin, in November last year
    stated that he and President Lula "agreed to promote the
    expansion of commercial relations between Mercosul and Canada
    by means of market access negotiation in the areas of goods,
    services and investments, in the context of the configuration
    of a future FTAA."  In a subsequent conversation with
    Econoff, Canada's trade officer in Brasilia said the visit
    had caused a stir in Ottawa resulting in conflicting
    interpretations of what the "talks" would entail.  Despite
    Canada's uncertainty, its trade officer said there is no
    doubt that Minister Amorim believes Canada and Mercosul will
    be moving ahead with market access negotiations in the three
    areas.  Initial discussions may take place as early as
    February.

    South-South

    ¶13.    (SBU) On December 20, Ambassador Regis Arslanian,
    Itamaraty's Director of International Negotiations, outlined
    prospects for 2005 for other trade negotiations.  Although
    Arslanian's list was lengthy, Ronaldo Costa Filho, who heads
    up the European Union and Extra-Regional Negotiations
    division for Arslanian, and Gilberto Goncalves de Siqueira,
    deputy in Itamaraty's Regional Integration Division, told
    Econoff that Mercosul's current plans include launching
    negotiations in 2005 with only three additional countries:
    Morocco, Egypt, and Mexico.

    ¶14.   (SBU) Tariff preference negotiations, covering a
    limited number of products, will proceed with Morocco and
    Egypt based on relatively standard framework agreements
    signed November 26 and December 16, 2004, respectively.
    Indicative of Brazil's driving force behind Mercosul trade
    policy, according to Costa, the negotiations with Morocco are
    the result of intense lobbying by Brazil's Ambassador to
    Morocco, former FTAA negotiator Carlos Alberto Simas
    Magalhaes, while discussions between Minister Amorim and
    Boutros Boutros-Ghali during a G-20 meeting in December 2003
    have led to the negotiations with Egypt.  Two-way trade
    between Brazil and Morocco totaled only $560 million between
    January and November 2004; with Egypt only $593 million over
    the same period.

    ¶15.   (SBU) The negotiations with Mexico follow up on the
    GoM's stated intention of seeking Mercosul associate
    membership, which requires a free trade agreement with the
    bloc.  The aim is to consolidate the trade agreements Mexico
    has with individual Mercosul partners, which vary in terms of
    coverage, to form a comprehensive Mercosul-Mexico FTA.
    Brazil currently has an Economic Complementary Agreement with
    Mexico, which covers only about 790 products, largely auto
    parts, chemicals, and some agricultural products, and an
    automotive agreement.  Two-way Brazil-Mexico trade reached
    $4.7 billion in 2004, dominated by Brazilian exports of $3.9
    billion.  Talk are expected to begin in the first semester of
    ¶2005.

    Potential Negotiations

    ¶16.   (SBU) Mercosul has established work programs for
    exploratory talks both with countries of the Central American
    Integration System (SICA) and with CARICOM.  Sessions with
    both groups are slated to take place in February and April,
    ¶2005.  According to Siqueira, only after these sessions will
    Mercosul determine if there is an adequate convergence of
    interests to proceed with negotiations.

    ¶17.  (SBU) According to Costa, Mercosul hopes to complete a
    feasibility study on negotiations with South Korea by the end
    of 2005.  Nonetheless, he did not expect trade negotiations
    to commence soon thereafter due to Brazilian private sector
    concerns with Korean protectionism, particularly in
    agriculture.  Pakistan and Israel have recently notified
    Mercosul of their interest in initiating trade negotiations.
    Other countries that have conveyed an interest in developing
    closer commercial relations with Brazil/Mercosul include: the
    EFTA countries, Australia, New Zealand, the Gulf Cooperation
    Council, and Japan.

    China

    ¶18.   (SBU) As Brazil's largest market for soybeans and third
    largest individual export destination, the GoB views China as
    a key trading and geopolitical partner.  In 2003, Brazilian
    exports to China almost doubled totaling $4.5 billion.  With
    continued growth, exports reached $5.4 billion, and imports
    $3.7 billion in 2004.  The importance of the relationship was
    evident in the state visits paid by both leaders in 2004.
    However, Brazil's industrial sector is terrified of the
    competitive giant, particularly following Lula's decision to
    grant China "market economy" status (Refs D and E).  Despite
    an agreement during Lula's trip to China in May 2004 to
    conduct a feasibility study on launching Mercosul-China trade
    negotiations, Costa admitted to Econoff that work is not
    proceeding even on terms of reference for the study.  Even
    without formal trade negotiations, China will remain one of
    Brazil's more important commercial partners for the
    foreseeable future, not only as a market for its primary
    commodities, but also as source of infrastructure investment
    and collaboration in certain technology-related areas,
    including satellites and development of open-source software.

    Russia

    ¶19.   (SBU) There are no plans by Mercosul at this time to
    negotiate a trade agreement with Russia.  References by GoB
    officials to trade talks typically refer to discussions on
    resolving specific impediments to trade, such as Russia's ban
    on imports of Brazilian beef stemming from foot and mouth
    disease outbreaks.  The two countries are also trying to
    stimulate bilateral trade through export promotion activities.
    Danilovich

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