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### Viewing cable 05FRANKFURT4988, Stability and Growth Pact: Revived, Passes First

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05FRANKFURT4988 | 2005-07-01 12:58 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Frankfurt

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 FRANKFURT 004988

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    STATE FOR EUR PDAS RIES, EB, EUR/AGS, AND EUR/ERA
    STATE PASS FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD
    STATE PASS NSC
    TREASURY FOR DAS LEE
    TREASURY ALSO FOR ICN COX, HULL
    PARIS ALSO FOR OECD
    TREASURY FOR OCC RUTLEDGE, MCMAHON

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EFIN EUN
    SUBJECT: Stability and Growth Pact:  Revived, Passes First
    Test

    T-IA-F-05-029

    This cable is sensitive but unclassified.  Not/not for
    Internet distribution.

    Ref: Frankfurt 2433

      ¶1.   (SBU)  Summary: Even before modifications of the
         Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) were adopted by the Council
         on June 27, the European Commission (EC) had passed its
         first test applying the "spirit" of the new rules to Italy
         and Portugal.  The EC's recommendations that these countries
         should be subject to Excessive Deficit Proceedings (EDP) is
         likely to be accepted by the Ecofin Council on July 12 for
         Italy and September or October for Portugal.  Applying what
         popular wisdom perceived to be more lenient rules did not
         allow Italy, with a deficit hovering around 3.1% of GDP, to
         escape EDP.  Portugal's deficit of 6.2% was not even a close
         call as the government gave up on one-off measures to reduce
         the deficit.  A close reading of the staff reports suggests
         that the EC has actually tightened its economic analysis,
         shutting down arguments that deficits became excessive due
         to exceptionally prolonged low economic growth or other
         relevant factors like costly structural reforms or
         investments.

      ¶2.   (SBU)  The EC believes it has to press ahead to
         demonstrate that the SGP functions.  The current EU
         political crisis might give it a bit of a tailwind as member
         states wish to show that EU and the Eurozone are not
         paralyzed.  Offering countries an extra year to correct
         their deficits should make the new SGP prescriptions more
         palatable.  As before, the major cases of Germany and France
         will demonstrate whether Finance Ministers have the
         political will to follow the new rules.  But, for this
         moment, the SGP looks revived.  End Summary.

      New Rules Take Effect...
      ------------------------

      ¶3.   (SBU)  Amendments to the regulations that form part of
         the SGP were adopted by the Council on June 27.  These had
         been proposed by the EC in April based upon Ecofin's report
         to Heads of State in March on "Improving the Implementation
         of the Stability and Growth Pact."  That report was agreed
         after contentious negotiations.

      ¶4.   (SBU)  As noted reftel, EC staff were principally
         disappointed that Ecofin's admonishment for countries to
         make adjustment to move their budgets to balance or close to
         balance in good economic times did not find their way into
         proposed amendments.  This was particularly disappointing as
         Council members fought to include specific, hard fought
         language of the Council report to make sure their own
         concerns, e.g. German reunification costs, were covered. As
         a result of this Council editing, the text  of the EC's
         draft amendments, which were designed to be as short as
         possible and suitable for legal text, became longer and less
         legalistic.

      ¶5.   (SBU)  European Parliament's Economic and Monetary
         Affairs Committee (ECON) shared the EC's view on the need
         for rules for adjustment during economic up-swings, but
         amendments to this effect were voted down by the plenary on
         the first reading.  Undeterred, ECON reasserted its position
         and took it to a second reading where its proposal failed to
         secure the necessary majority, losing 257 to 309 on June 23.
         EC staff were comforted by the fact that they had allies in
         the Parliament, but the new regulations, as modified by the
         Council, were set for final approval.

      ¶6.   (SBU)  EC staff also has been working on a code of
         conduct that lays out the rules for application of the Pact
         in more detail.  The Economic and Finance Committee will
         discuss the EC's draft this week and the Council should
         endorsed it shortly thereafter.

      But EC Already Applied Their Spirit .
      -------------------------------------

      ¶7.   (SBU)  Even before the Council's adoption of the
         amendments, the EC applied the "spirit" of the modified
         rules in the cases of Italy and Portugal.  On June 7 the EC
         issued an assessment of Italy's budget situation in light of
         Eurostat's May 23 revised figures showing Italy's deficit
         had been 3.1% of GDP in 2003 and 2004.  On June 22 the EC
         issued an assessment of Portugal's budget situation in light
         of the new Portuguese government's updated stability
         program.  Contrary to its predecessor, the new government
         does not plan to use extraordinary measures to reduce its
         deficit, but has pledged a gradual reduction from an
         estimated 6.2% in 2005 to 2.8% in 2008.

      In Unexpected Ways..
      --------------------

      ¶8.   (SBU)  Popular wisdom has been that the modifications
         to the SGP would make any excessive deficit case nearly
         impossible to make.  The deficit could be over 3% and
         considered exceptional and temporary if caused by adverse
         economic conditions like prolonged slow growth.  Moreover a
         list of "all other relevant factors" could be cited, such as
         structural reforms implemented under the Lisbon Agenda or
         financial contributions to the EU budget, to avoid an EDP
         proceeding.  According to this popular wisdom, the SGP was
         history.

      ¶9.   (SBU)  A close reading of the EC's report suggests that
         popular wisdom did not have it quite right.  As explained by
         an EC expert, to initiate an EDP, first the EC assesses
         whether the deficit is close to 3% and whether the excess
         over that reference value is exceptional (due to a severe
         downturn or prolonged slowdown of the overall economy) and
         temporary.  If the EC's assessment is that the deficit is
         not close to 3% or it is not exceptional and temporary, it
         can recommend the Council launch an EDP.  In taking that
         step, the EC examines "all other relevant factors," which
         also include cyclical conditions, consolidation efforts in
         good times, and debt sustainability.

      ¶10.  (SBU)  In the case of Italy, the EC report does not
         comment on whether 3.1% is close to 3%.  The number,
         however, does not leave much to the imagination.  The EC
         report concludes that the deficit is not temporary.  As
         noted above, Eurostat's revised numbers show a deficit of
         3.1% for the last two years.  The EC's spring 2005 forecast
         projects a deficit of 3.6% this year and 4.6% in 2006, both
         likely to be higher in light of Italy's slowing economic
         growth, according to another EC expert.  The EC report
         observes that Italy's economic slowdown is not exceptional.
         Yes, Italy's growth has been slower over the last decade
         than before. However, EC staff point out that the slowdown
         reflects structural weaknesses that have reduced Italy's
         potential growth rate from 2.3-2.4% at the end of the 1980's
         to "slightly above 1.5%." While Italy has grown less than
         its potential for the last three years, the EC notes that
         this output gap is not as large as those during other
         economic recessions in the early 1980's and early 1990's.

      ¶11.  (SBU)  What about the "other relevant factors?" Reforms
         adopted in March to improve Italian competitiveness will
         cost less than 0.1% of GDP, according to the EC's
         assessment.    Expenditure on R&D and education remained
         constant as a share of GDP and does not explain the deficit
         increase.  The EC points out that: 1) the cyclically
         adjusted deficit is likely to stay around 3.9%; 2) the
         Italian government expanded the deficit rather than
         shrinking it in good economic times; 3) the deficit had been
         reduced by one-off measures which the government is phasing
         out; and 4) the government's projection of deficits were
         consistently lower because of overly optimistic economic
         growth projections.  To top it off, the EC's close
         examination of debt dynamics show that Italy's debt to GDP
         of 106.5% of GDP (compared to the SGP reference value of
         60%) is unlikely to be declining any time soon.

      ¶12.  (SBU)  For Portugal the story was very similar.  The EC
         states that a deficit of 6.2% is not close to 3%, an easy
         call. The deficit is not temporary, under the GOP's own
         assumptions of not falling under 3% until 2008.  And the
         deficit is not due to exceptional circumstances, again
         comparing Portugal's lower growth potential with output gaps
         in previous recessions rather than just looking at its
         recent poor economic growth.  With respect to other relevant
         factors, the EC report gives Portugal little slack.  The
         effect of recent structural reforms on the budget is
         difficult to estimate, although expenditures in education
         have increased continuously since the 1990's. But the
         cyclically adjusted budget is not set to decline and the
         government's reliance on one-off measures and overly
         optimistic growth forecasts masked the reality that the debt
         stock has increased from 53.4% of GDP in 2000 to a projected
         67.5% in 2006.

      ¶13.  (SBU)  One area where the modified rules appear to have
         made a difference is in the time to correct the deficit.
         Previously, the EC interpreted the SGP as requiring the
         deficit to be corrected a year after its identification.
         The EC will recommend that Italy be given until 2007 rather
         than 2006 and Portugal to 2008 (on the assumption that the
         2005 budget will be the first year over 3%), in line with
         the government's program.  A senior EC official reported
         that his was hotly debated within the EC.  Those favoring
         strict adherence to the old interpretation argued that
         crisis budgets are more successful when the reductions are
         front-loaded rather than explaining painful adjustments year
         after year. The other view was that an extra year took
         better account of the politics of national budget cycles and
         is a "bargaining chip" for the countries to accept EDP.  The
         latter won.

      ¶14.  (SBU)  An EC expert explained that the modified rules
         provided an opportunity for the EC to change its
         presentations to give a more economically robust
         justification for recommending an EDP. The presentations for
         both countries adhere to the same format and systematically
         run through all the economic arguments that had been
         included in the Ecofin report.  The EC gives consideration
         to "all other relevant factors," then puts them aside as
         they did not cause the deficit to become excessive.  As a
         result, countries have a more difficult time rebutting the
         EC case.

      ¶15.  (SBU)  According to a senior EC official, the Economic
         and Finance Committees showed little sympathy when the
         Italians started to explain away their excessive deficit.
         The EC's analysis had graphically shown how shoddy
         statistical governance and a series of one-off measures were
         used to hold the deficit under 3%.  Most member state
         representatives were "fed up," accord to this official.

      ¶16.  (SBU)  Most member states have not appreciated that the
         EC will rarely find an excessive deficit to be temporary,
         according to an EC expert.  When the EC makes budget
         projections, it does so on the basis of no policy changes.
         That is, unless there are policy changes, the deficit will
         almost never be considered temporary.

      ¶17.  (SBU)  Slow growth may be cited as a justification for
         running slightly larger deficits. But there is a question as
         to how slow growth should be defined. Basing slow growth on
         the output gap was discussed early on by EC staff and
         included in the Council's report. This point is that a
         country could claim a prolonged economic slowdown, but if
         prolonged for a sufficient time, growth potential drops
         making a return to higher growth problematic and economic
         forecasts based on the good old days overly optimistic.

      But Germany and France Will Be Real Tests Again.
      --------------------------------------------- ---

      ¶18.  (SBU)  The EC's recommendation that Italy be subject to
         an EDP was adopted by the full Commission June 29th and sent
         to Ecofin for its endorsement at its July 12th meeting.
         Since the Economic and Finance Committee accepted the EC's
         report, EC staff are confident Ecofin will agree.  The
         recommendation on Portugal will be considered by the
         Economic and Finance Committee this week.  On July 12 Ecofin
         will hear a report on the GOP's updated stability program,
         but will not act on the EC's recommendation until its
         meeting in September (unlikely as it is an informal meeting)
         or October.

      ¶19.  (SBU)  The EC is already preparing for the next cases
         on Germany and France.  German Finance Minister Eichel has
         admitted to Commissioner Alumnia that the deficit will be
         over 3% in 2005 and likely again in 2006.  EC staff reckons
         it will be around 3.5% this year.  France's announcement of
         job creation measures and tax cuts do not bode well for a
         deficit that is skirting 3%.

      ¶20.  (SBU)  The EC could start action on either country at
         any time, but the most likely opportunities will be after
         the September 1 notification of likely budget outcomes or
         the EC's autumn forecast due out November 12.  As Germany is
         likely to have a national election in mid-September, EC
         staff believes the German notification due on September 1
         will be delayed.

      ¶21.  (SBU)  Since Germany and France are already in EDP the
         issue will be whether Ecofin should escalate proceedings to
         104(9), the last step before sanctions, or repeat a
         recommendation under 104(7).  Under the modified SGP rules,
         a recommendation under 104(7) can be repeated provided
         unexpected economic factors had caused the deficit not to
         decline as projected even though the government had taken
         effective action in line with the initial recommendation.
         The   economic outturn is compared to what the EC had
         projected for growth and the deficit.

      ¶22.  (SBU)  In the assessment of a senior EC official, both
         countries may experience weaker growth than initially
         forecast. He believes that Germany could make a case that it
         has taken effective actions, but, in his view, France could
         not.  While he recalled that France was willing to accept a
         recommendation under 104 (9) in November 2003, times have
         changed, and he is not so sure that they would do so this
         time.

      Comment
      ------------

      ¶23.  (SBU)  EC staff have surprised themselves with their
         more robust economic analysis that cuts off many lines of
         debate that could excuse a deficit higher than the 3%
         reference value.  They believe the EU's political crisis has
         strengthened the EC's resolve to press ahead and demonstrate
         that the SGP has not been weakened.  Finance Ministers, in
         this EC expert view, will be leery about challenging the EC
         working with the freshly minted rules.  While the cases of
         Italy and Portugal are set to proceed, as before, the cases
         of German and France will demonstrate whether, in fact,
         there is a new political will to make the SGP function in a
         more robust, but economically rational, way.

      ¶24.  (SBU)  The "extra year" for deficit correction is
         likely to be perceived as slippage from previous
         recommendations.  Two comments are in order.  First and
         foremost the national political reality and the economic
         policy mix of the country concerned will dictate how quickly
         or sharply the deficit can be reduced.  Withdrawing 2% of
         GDP can't be easy for any country and certainly was not
         economically healthy for Portugal.  Second, the EC has
         sometimes been guilty of a slight of hand by not always
         promptly identifying a deficit as excessive, and thus
         defacto granting an extra year.  This happened in the
         previous case against Portugal when the EC's recommendation
         slipped into January before the Council "identified" the
         deficit, giving Portugal an extra year for correction.  The
         point of the SGP is to push countries in the right direction
         and give confidence that the government has or is getting
         the budget situation under control. Deadlines imposed from
         Brussels are less important than the substance of
         government's fiscal decisions that may take more time and
         local politicking.

      ¶25.  (U) This report coordinated with USEU and Embassies
         Lisbon, Rome, Paris, Berlin and Luxembourg.

      ¶26.  (U) POC: James Wallar, Treasury Representative, e-mail
         wallarjg2@state.gov; tel. 49-(69)-7535-2431, fax 49-(69)-
         7535-2238

    Bodde

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