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### Viewing cable 03ANKARA4692, LITTLE PROGRESS ON RESOLVING BOT AND CARGILL/ADM

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
03ANKARA4692 | 2003-07-24 12:56 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ankara

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

    241256Z Jul 03

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 004692

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    STATE FOR E, EB/CBA, EB/IFD, AND EUR/SE
    USDOC FOR 4212/ITA/MAC/OEURA/DDEFALCO
    USDA FOR FAS FOR EC AND CCC/FSA
    TREASURY FOR OASIA - MILLS AND LEICHTER
    NSC FOR BRYZA

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EINV PREL TU
    SUBJECT: LITTLE PROGRESS ON RESOLVING BOT AND CARGILL/ADM
    INVESTMENT ISSUES

    REF: ANKARA 3343

    ¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Turkish authorities are making little if
    any progress toward resolving the investment disputes
    involving U.S. power generation and starch-based sweetener
    companies.  The BOT issue is being held up in part due to
    disagreements between the Energy Ministry and the Energy
    Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA); each is waiting for the
    other to act, and neither is communicating with the
    companies.  The EMRA President assured us this week that, if
    the problem remains unresolved when the end-August licensing
    deadline hits, he will unilaterally extend the deadline to
    allow the companies to continue to operate.  On the sweetener
    issue, Cargill has made some progress in its legal battles
    over zoning, but understands that Industry Minister Coskun
    has tentatively decided not to increase the quota for
    starch-based sweetener production from 10 to 15 percent, as
    was done last year.  If Coskun sticks to this decision, both
    Cargill and ADM will face major difficulties.  End Summary.

    ¶2.  (SBU) During the past week, EconCouns met with Energy U/S
    Sami Demirbilek and Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA)
    President Yusuf Gunay to express concern about the lack of
    progress in resolving the issues surrounding U.S.-owned and
    USG-supported BOT power generation projects.  As reported in
    reftel, the fundamental problem is that the Energy Ministry
    has been pressing the power generation companies (in a
    heavy-handed manner) to reduce their prices, or risk not
    having their new license applications approved by EMRA.
    (Note:  Under EMRA regulations, all power generation
    companies, including those already operating, are required to
    apply and obtain new operating licenses.  EMRA officials
    insisted this was a pro forma process for existing companies,
    but Ministry officials indicated it might not be.  Moreover,
    the langauge in the license applications suggested the
    companies might be giving up their existing contractual
    rights by applying.  End note).

    ¶3.  (SBU)  EconCouns reminded both Demirbilek and Gunay that,
    during a May 2003 visit to Ankara (reftel), a group of
    international export credit agencies had expressed concern
    about these developments and had urged the GOT to clarify in
    writing that the companies, by applying for new licenses,
    would not give up any of their existing contractual
    obligations.  They also had suggested that any GOT move to
    violate or force changes in existing contracts would have
    negative consequences for Turkey's broader efforts to attract
    investment into the sector.  (In response, GOT officials had
    promised to clarify that the companies would not give up
    their existing contractual rights by applying for new
    licenses, and had insisted that they had no intention of
    violating contracts.  Rather, they were only asking the
    companies to work with them to facilitate Turkey's transition
    to a market-based energy sector.)  Following the meeting,
    OPIC had sent a letter to the EMRA President highlighting the
    areas of discussion and the GOT commitments.

    ¶4.  (SBU)  EconCouns noted that, two months later, the GOT
    has neither issued the promised clarification nor responded
    to the OPIC letter.  With the deadline for issuance of new
    licenses fast approaching (end-August), we are increasingly
    concerned about the lack of progress.  EconCouns asked how
    GOT authorities plan to resolve this problem.

    ¶5.  (SBU) Demirbilek said there were many possible solutions
    to the problem, but under any circumstances the GOT would not
    violate or unilaterally abrogate the contracts.  The first
    step, however, is for EMRA to forward its proposals on how
    the contracts could be revised to facilitate Turkey's shift
    to a market-based electricity system.  The Ministry would
    review those proposals, and then try to find a solution.
    Despite repeated queries, Demirbilek did not comment on why
    the GOT had failed to provide the promised clarification of
    the companies' rights under the existing contracts.  In a
    troubling aside, he noted that the Ministry had determiend
    that one of the companies -- Doga (partly owned by U.S.-based
    Edison Mission) --  was violating the terms of its contract,
    and was continuing to look into the other companies'
    performances.  (Note:  A standard GOT approach on domestic
    and international energy issues has been to use a minor,
    technical violation of contracts to force concessions from
    its "partners.")

    ¶6.  (SBU) Gunay countered that EMRA was in no position to
    present proposals to the Ministry, and in any case the
    Ministry had no right to judge the utility of any proposals.
    Instead, Gunay has asked the companies to offer ideas on how
    they could facilitate the sector's transition.  These might
    include, for example, giving up government purchase
    guarantees in return for a longer operating period before
    they turn the projects over to the government.
    Unfortunately, Gunay said, the Ministry's approach on prices
    has "turned off" the companies, making them defensive and
    unenthusiastic about offering any concessions.  Gunay said
    price should not be the issue.  Sure, the contract prices are
    high, but the GOT signed these contracts and thus has no
    grounds for complaint.

    ¶7.  (SBU)  As for next steps, Gunay said he had written to
    the Ministry advising that EMRA had reached the licensing
    stage.  He is not seeking the Ministry's approval, but wants
    to be able to show that the Ministry was aware that EMRA
    would be issuing licenses so that they could not later blame
    EMRA for issuing licenses and thus undermining the Ministry's
    efforts to obtain price concessions.  If the Ministry
    responds to his letter by saying it is about to reach
    agreement with the companies on a new price, he will extend
    the licensing deadline to allow the agreement to be
    concluded.  If the Ministry says there is no such agreement,
    he will issue the licenses.   He urged us not to worry,
    saying that, in the worst case, he would extend the licensing
    deadline so the companies could continue to operate.  Gunay
    added that he would respond to OPIC's letter as soon as he
    heard back from the Ministry.

    ¶8.  (SBU)  In a separate meeting, Cargill executives updated
    us on the problems facing both the company and the broader
    starch-based sweetener industry, including U.S.-based ADM.
    There has been some progress on the Cargill-specific issue,
    which involves legal actions against its factory for being
    improperly zoned.  The Danistay (State Council) had recently
    rejected two law suits aimed at annulling its construction
    license, based on the Danistay's view that the plaintiffs had
    no legal basis for suing.  However, the Danistay had ruled
    against Cargill in a third case -- brought by the same
    plaintiffs -- involving the plant's emissions permit, based
    on the argument that, since the plant was improperly zoned,
    its emissions permit was improperly issued.  Cargill is
    appealing this decision, and generally sees the Danistay's
    actions as positive.  Meanwhile, senior Industry Ministry
    officials, including Minister Ali Coskun, continue to tell
    Cargill that they expect to submit to Parliament a new
    industrial zoning law, which would effectively enable Cargill
    to "re-zone" its factory, in September.  (Note:  Cargill
    executives are a bit skeptical, as Coskun has been promising
    action on this for some time.)

    ¶9.  (SBU)  The other issue, which affects ADM as well as
    Cargill, is how the government will implement the sugar
    production quota.  Under the Sugar Law, the Sugar Board sets
    an annual production quota for the entire sweetener industry
    (sugar, fructose, glucose), and fructose/glucose producers
    such as Cargill and ADM are limited to 10 percent of the
    quota.  Last year, the government set the total quota
    significantly above domestic demand (2,340,000 tons compared
    to domestic demand of about 1,850,000 tons), and raised the
    fructose/glucose sub-quota to 15 percent (as allowed by the
    law).  These two moves enabled starch-based sweetener
    producers to continue operating at reasonable levels, even if
    below capacity.

    ¶10. (SBU) This year, however, Cargill has heard that Minister
    Coskun is siding with the sugar beet producers and is
    planning to keep the sub-quota at 10 percent (though the
    overall sweetener production quota will remain at 2,340,000
    tons).  If he sticks to this decision, the starch-based
    sweetener producers will be forced to produce at far below
    capacity, raising serioius questions about their ability to
    continue.  Cargill and ADM have organized a group made up of
    their major customers -- the cola, fruit juice, and
    confectionary companies -- to meet with Prime Minister
    Erdogan in the coming weeks to lobby for a 15 percent quota.
    If this approach fails, Cargill and ADM might ask the Embassy
    to weigh in (until now, they have kept us informed but asked
    us not to weigh in).
    DEUTSCH

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