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### Viewing cable 04PRETORIA5333, SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04PRETORIA5333 | 2004-12-10 07:43 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Pretoria

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PRETORIA 005333

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR AF/S/JDIFFILY; AF/EPS; EB/IFD/OMA
    USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/MAC/AME/OA/DIEMOND
    TREASURY FOR OAISA/BARBER/WALKER/JEWELL
    USTR FOR COLEMAN
    LONDON FOR GURNEY; PARIS FOR NEARY

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EINV EFIN ETRD BEXP KTDB PGOV SF
    SUBJECT:  SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER
               DECEMBER 10, 2004 ISSUE

     ¶1. Summary.  Each week, AMEmbassy Pretoria publishes an
     economic newsletter based on South African press reports.
     Comments and analysis do not necessarily reflect the
     opinion of the U.S. Government.  Topics of this week's
     newsletter are:
     -  No Change in Interest Rates;
     -  IMF Seep Progress in Economic Fundamentals but
     Inequality Still Problematic;
     -  39 Percent of Manufacturers Have Closed Export Capacity;
     -  SA's Labor Force Declines Due to Discouragement and
     HIV/AIDS;
     -  BEE Transactions Double Though Benefiting Few;
     -  October Manufacturing Growth Leveled;
     -  Current Trade Conditions Still Predict Growth;
     -  Net Reserves Increase by 14 Percent in November; and
     -  Union Criticizes Motor Vehicle Sector's BEE Exemption.
     End Summary.

     NO CHANGE IN INTEREST RATES
     ---------------------------

     ¶2.  The South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) Monetary
     Policy Meeting (MPC) kept its key lending rate steady at
     7.5 percent, mostly in line with market forecasts.  This
     means the prime rate remains at 11 percent.  SARB's
     governor Tito Mboweni expects inflation could increase
     somewhat in 2005, but should remain comfortably within the
     target range of 3 to 6 percent.  Mboweni cited the
     following indicators as possible future reasons for an
     increase in inflation:  (1) the decline in growth of labor
     productivity from 3.3 percent in the first quarter 2004 to
     0.5 percent in the second quarter; (2) the recent strong
     growth in money supply (14.9 percent in October); and (3)
     the high growth of total loans of the banks to the private
     sector (15.1 percent in October).  Combined with strong
     growth in demand in the third quarter, the MPC left
     interest rates unchanged.  Two thirds of economists
     surveyed by I-Net Bridge expected no change in rates,
     while the rest forecasted a 50 basis points cut.  The
     announcement came at the same time that the Bureau for
     Economic Research at the University of Stellenbosch
     released its findings of the inflation expectation survey.
     The survey differed very little from the third quarter,
     with overall inflation expectations remaining in the
     SARB's 3 to 6 percent target range for a second time in a
     row.  Source:  I-Net Bridge, December 9; Statement of the
     Monetary Policy Committee, December 9.

     ¶3.  Comment.  Even though the rand has strengthened 5.1
     percent against the dollar in November alone, fears that
     strong consumer demand along with wage increases already
     negotiated being just above the 6 percent range made the
     SARB reluctant to reduce interest rates just before the
     holiday season.  Recent press statements by SARB Governor
     Mboweni emphasized that the Bank would not lose its focus
     in targeting inflation.  End comment.

     IMF SEES PROGRESS IN ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS BUT INEQUALITY
     STILL PROBLEMATIC
     --------------------------------------------- ------------

     ¶4.  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its
     annual report on South Africa and noted that South African
     growth should increase over the short to medium term as
     monetary easing, a moderate expansionary fiscal policy,
     increases in investment and strong domestic demand provide
     a solid base for over 3 percent growth.  The IMF expects a
     modest increase in inflation over the next twelve months
     and views adjustments in interest rates likely.  The IMF
     views recent increases in South Africa's net international
     reserves as crucial since the closure of the SARB's
     forward book in the foreign exchange market in February
     2004, and considers further increases in reserves as
     desirable in order to help reduce currency volatility and
     keep long-term interest rates low. In response to strong
     domestic demand and the currency appreciation, the
     external current account position reversed from a surplus
     of 0.6 percent of GDP in 2002 to a deficit of 0.8 percent
     of GDP in 2003; however, South Africa continues to attract
     inflows to easily finance its current account deficit.
     Increased government expenditures have provided counter
     cyclical support and helped address South Africa's social
     problems.  "The authorities agree that a government
     deficit in the region of 3 percent of GDP should be
     considered the upper limit of what is desirable to
     maintain macroeconomic stability and to keep indebtedness
     under control," the IMF said.  Universal provision of
     antiretroviral HIV/AIDS drugs through the public health
     system is an important example of increased government
     expenditures.  The annual report also emphasizes the
     importance of policies designed to reduce income and
     wealth disparities and encourages progress in both black
     empowerment programs and land reform as being crucial to
     maintain social cohesion.  In order to reduce
     unemployment, the IMF report stated that labor market and
     tax reforms and increased competition were necessary.  The
     IMF staff recommends that steps be considered to
     decentralize the collective bargaining system so that
     small and medium-sized enterprises gain more autonomy in
     setting wages. It is, moreover, concerned that increases
     in minimum wages have aggravated the unemployment problem,
     particularly in the agricultural sector. "The government's
     skills development program could be strengthened by
     relying less on labor levies as a source of funding and by
     focusing more on training those presently unemployed," the
     IMF said.  The IMF staff urged that further liberalization
     of the tax regime be undertaken and that implementation of
     the privatization program, which has come to a halt, be
     stepped up.  Source:  I-Net Bridge, December 2.

     39 PERCENT OF MANUFACTURERS HAVE CLOSED EXPORT CAPACITY
     --------------------------------------------- ----------

     ¶5.   Thirty-nine percent of South African manufacturers
     have closed down export capacity permanently over the past
     two years as the rand has moved from above 13 rand per US
     dollar in December 2001 to below 6 rand per dollar.  The
     Bureau of Economic Research (BER) at the University of
     Stellenbosch found these results during its survey of
     1,100 manufacturers conducted between October 25 and
     November 22.  Other survey results included:  (1) 28
     percent "suffered a decline in export volumes"; (2) 16
     percent managed to maintain export markets, if not grow
     them; and (3) 14 percent managed to "continue growing
     export volumes" over the past two years.  The BER noted
     that the global economy has been in a growth phase over
     the past 18 months, with growth being exceptionally strong
     during the second half of 2003 and the early part of 2004.
     In some sectors, production for export is being switched
     to the domestic market as 25 percent of the respondents
     indicated that this has been their company's response over
     the past two years.  Since the manufacturing sector
     contributed more than half of export revenues in 2003, the
     implied loss of export capacity suggests larger economic
     costs tied to the strength of the currency.  BER expressed
     concern that the strong rand is indirectly fueling
     domestic expenditure while constraining local production
     (because of the low cost of imports) leading to unbalanced
     and unsustainable growth.  It recommends that the South
     African Reserve Bank (SARB) should accumulate reserves
     more aggressively.  The SARB should also consider easing
     interest rates to close the gap with interest rate levels
     abroad, currently inviting volatile money inflows on the
     capital account of the balance of payments.  When asked to
     give their view on what constituted the optimal level of
     foreign reserves for South Africa, 48.9 percent of the
     survey participants said six months import cover, 28.9
     percent said one year's import cover, 16.7 percent said
     three months import cover and only 5.6 percent said three
     years' worth.  Source:  I-Net Bridge, December 2.

     SA'S LABOR FORCE DECLINES DUE TO DISCOURAGEMENT AND
     HIV/AIDS
     --------------------------------------------- ------

     ¶6.  South Africa's labor force has declined over the past
     few years, probably because more people have given up
     looking for work or are infected with HIV, says a new
     report in the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) Labor
     Market Frontiers report.  South Africa's labor force
     participation rate, which counts the number of people
     working and actively seeking work as a proportion of the
     total population, dropped to 54.1 percent in September
     2003, down from 58.9 percent in September 2000.  Official
     figures from Statistics SA show that unemployment dropped
     to 4.6 million in September 2003 from 5.3 million in March
     2003, based on the narrow definition of unemployment where
     an individual had been actively seeking work prior to the
     survey.  The drop in unemployment was not matched by an
     increase in total employment over that period, with more
     people dropping out of the labor market.  The number of
     discouraged job seekers increased the unemployed figure to
     more than 8 million.  The SARB's report states that job
     seekers were discouraged because of the slim chances of
     finding a job, or because they lacked funds to search
     actively for work.  Another likely cause for a drop in
     labor market participation was the effect of HIV/AIDS.
     The report points to research that shows a drop in
     HIV/AIDS prevalence among younger people in their
     twenties, and an increase in higher age groups, making up
     most of the labor force.  The report also assesses whether
     social grants have a negative incentive on labor force
     participation, but found mixed results.  Some studies show
     that pension payments cause an indirect effect of
     withdrawal from the labor market.  However, other studies
     show that a child support grant could result in higher
     labor force participation.  Source:  Business Day,
     December 3.

     BEE TRANSACTIONS DOUBLE THOUGH BENEFITING FEW
     ---------------------------------------------

     ¶7.  Black economic empowerment deals this year increased
     to an estimated R80 billion ($14 billion using 5.7 rands
     per dollar) amid debate that only a small black elite was
     benefiting from the transactions.  This was more than
     double the R40 billion worth of empowerment deals
     concluded last year, fuelled mainly by black economic
     empowerment charters.  Trade and Industry Minister Mandisi
     Mpahlwa stated that 72 percent of last year's deals had
     involved at least one of the top six empowerment
     companies, Mvelaphanda, Shanduka, ARM, Kagiso, Tiso and
     Safika, adding weight to concerns that government's
     current empowerment strategy is not broad-based enough.
     Trade and Industry Deputy Director-General Lionel October
     estimated that the number of recorded deals had doubled
     this year from last year's 118.  Apart from the financial
     sector, key sectors contributing to the huge deal-making
     this year included information technology, retail and
     manufacturing.  Mpahlwa said the average reported value of
     all the transactions last year was R515.3 million ($90
     million), and the largest transaction in terms of rand
     value last year was the ARMGold and Avmin deal worth R10.6
     billion ($1.86 billion).  The use of vendor financing,
     inflows of foreign capital and the involvement of the
     Industrial Development Corporation were among the
     financing mechanisms used.  Source:  Business Day,
     December 7.

     OCTOBER MANUFACTURING GROWTH LEVELS
     -----------------------------------

     ¶8.  Both manufacturing production and sales declined on a
     monthly basis (seasonally adjusted) at -0.7 and -1.0
     percent, although when compared to figures from last
     October, they grew 5.3 and 11.4 percent respectively.
     October 2004's year-on-year growth shows high growth
     compared to a low base last October.  The manufacturing
     sector experienced a recession from April 2003 to February
     2004, and October 2003's manufacturing production declined
     by 2.3 percent.  On a quarterly basis, 7 out of 10 sectors
     reported improvements, with the greatest contribution to
     manufacturing output growth coming from food and
     beverages.  Production growth was also strong in the motor
     vehicle, paper, wood, and furniture industries.  The
     textile sector and communication equipment reported the
     largest decline in both production and sales, as
     competition from cheaper imports is especially severe in
     these industries.  Source:  Standard Bank, Manufacturing
     Unpacked December 7; Business Day, December 8.

     CURRENT TRADE CONDITIONS STILL PREDICT GROWTH
     ---------------------------------------------

     ¶9.  Started in 2000, the South African Chamber of Commerce
     and Standard Bank publish two monthly trade indices
     measuring South African trade activity and expectations.
     November's indices still indicate growth, although
     expectations have marginally decreased from October's
     level.  The trade activity index increased to 56 compared
     to October's level of 50, with sales volumes and new
     orders showing the highest growth in November.  Sales
     volumes indicate strong November growth even when
     seasonally adjusted, confirming that domestic demand
     growth remains quite strong.  The survey showed that
     inflation (selling prices) slowed in November, although
     purchase prices (prices of inputs) increased.  Since 2000,
     the employment component of the activity index has rarely
     exceeded 50, a value indicating expansion in employment.
     November's value of 51 indicates modest expansion,
     although employment growth may reflect seasonal increased
     hiring.  The trade expectations index also predicts
     expansion at 60, although it has declined marginally from
     September and October's values of 63 and 61 respectively.
     There is strong expectation that growth in both sales
     volumes and new orders will increase over the medium term,
     although not as strong as in October.  Traders expect that
     both selling and purchasing prices will increase over the
     medium term, with selling price increases moderating.
     Employment prospects remain positive at 53, the fourth
     consecutive month of expanding employment expectations.
     Source:  Standard Bank, SATMI, December 7; Business Day,
     December 8.

     NET RESERVES INCREASE BY 14 PERCENT IN NOVEMBER
     --------------------------------------------- --

     ¶10.  The South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) net reserves
     increased by 14 percent in November to $11.02 billion.
     The SARB increased its purchases to $1.3 billion compared
     to its October purchase of $962 million.  Gross gold and
     foreign exchange reserves increased to $14.425 billion
     compared to October's level of $13 billion.  According to
     Nedcor economist Magan Mistry, the current level of
     reserves will cover about four months of imports and
     Mistry expects that the bank will continue to increase
     reserves until six months of imports are covered.  On
     average, the rand appreciated 5.1 percent against the
     dollar in November, and with continuing rand strength and
     higher gold prices, further increases in reserves are
     expected in December.  Source:  Standard Bank, Foreign
     Reserves Alert, December 7; Business Report, December 8.

     UNION CRITICIZES MOTOR VEHICLE SECTOR'S BEE EXEMPTION
     --------------------------------------------- --------

     ¶11.  The National Union of Metalworkers of SA (NUMSA) has
     criticized the motor sector's original equipment
     manufacturers' exemption from Black Economic Empowerment
     (BEE) since the companies were not South African-based.
     In October, Trade and Industry Minister Mpahlwa stated
     that the government would allow multinationals in the
     motor vehicle sector to commit to their own BEE
     initiatives rather than forcing them into a single
     approach.  Since multinationals comprised the majority of
     the vehicle assembly and component manufacturing sectors
     and alliances were formed with both upstream and
     downstream producers, government was open to negotiation
     regarding BEE ownership requirements for original
     equipment manufacturers.  NUMSA views that since these
     companies derive benefits from the government's motor
     industry development program, they should not be exempt
     from following the government's BEE policies.  NUMSA wants
     to establish an empowerment charter, code of conduct,
     standards and monitoring mechanisms for the industry as a
     whole.  Nico Vermeulen, executive director of the National
     Association of Automobile Manufacturers of SA reported
     that representatives of the motor vehicle industry were
     finalizing a sectoral approach to BEE and expects
     additional discussion with all stakeholders in the near
     future.  Source:  Business Report, December 8.

     FRAZER

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