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### Viewing cable 05PRETORIA2977, SOUTH AFRICA: THE NEED AND PROSPECT FOR GROWTH

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05PRETORIA2977 | 2005-07-27 13:12 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Pretoria

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PRETORIA 002977

    SIPDIS

    DEPT PASS TO USTR, USAID
    DEPT FOR E, EB/IFD, AF/EPS, AF/S
    DEPT FOR AF/S/AMBASSADOR FRAZER
    TREASURY FOR OIA/OAN/JRALYEA, BCUSHMAN

    SENSITIVE

    E.O. 12958:  N/A
    TAGS: ECON EAID KMCA EFIN EINV SF
    SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA: THE NEED AND PROSPECT FOR GROWTH

    REF: A) Pretoria 1998 B) Pretoria 2161 C) Pretoria 2343

    D) Pretoria 2621 E) Pretoria 2971  F) 04 Pretoria 171
    G) 04 Pretoria 4809 H) 04 Pretoria 5007

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Fiscal and budgetary reforms of the
    past decade have built a firm foundation upon which the
    South African economy can build, but life for many South
    Africans has not improved much since the transition to
    majority rule in 1994.  Widespread unemployment, rapid
    urbanization, and disease make South Africa home to one
    of the most impoverished populations in the world.  The
    government knows that it cannot meet this challenge on
    the back of transfer payments alone.  Last year, the
    executive branch decided that the way to achieve higher
    growth was through fiscal expansion and investment in
    infrastructure.  It reserved a starring role for state
    owned enterprises and public-private partnerships.  The
    hitch is that implementation hinges on improving the
    capacity and effectiveness of the public sector.  The
    right kind of development assistance could help South
    Africa get the most bang for its buck, or a bigger bang
    from more bucks.  End Summary.

    Gauging Strengths .
    -----------------------------------

    ¶2. (U) Most economists would argue that the fiscal and
    budgetary reforms of the past decade have built a firm
    foundation upon which the South African economy can
    build.  The government has reduced and then stabilized
    its fiscal balance, brought inflation under control,
    modernized its tax structure, adopted policy-consistent
    planning and budgeting systems, deepened its credit
    markets, dismantled many exchange controls, lowered
    import tariffs, reduced non-tariff barriers, and
    redirected public spending in an effort to redress the
    inequality and poverty caused by the country's racially
    skewed past.  There are clear signs that the economy is
    on the right track.  The country has experienced its
    longest period of continuous growth in its recorded
    economic history, averaging 3.0% between 1994 and 2004.
    For 2004, interest rates reached their lowest levels in
    20 years, inflation reached its lowest level since 1959,
    and the rate of GDP growth picked up to 3.7%.

    and Weaknesses.
    ---------------

    ¶3. (U) While the ANC government can congratulate itself
    on having restructured the economy and achieved modest,
    but steady growth, life for many South Africans has not
    improved much since the transition to majority rule in
    ¶1994.  Widespread unemployment, rapid urbanization, and
    disease make South Africa home to one of the most
    impoverished populations in the world.  Fifty-seven
    percent of the population lives below the poverty line
    [defined here as a family of four living on less than
    $215 per month].  Though 2 million net jobs have been
    created over the last decade, a rapidly growing labor
    force has resulted in the rate of unemployment almost
    doubling during this period, disproportionately affecting
    blacks and "coloureds."  About 2.8 million households, a
    quarter of the population, are still situated in
    impoverished settlements originally designed to warehouse
    a non-white population under apartheid.  A rampaging
    HIV/AIDS epidemic has reduced life expectancy to 46 years
    in 2004 - down from 63 years in 1992 and well below the
    69-year average for other lower middle-income countries.
    The precipitous decline in life expectancy has caused
    South Africa's to fall to 119 out of 177 countries in the
    2004 Human Development Index. (Ref E)

    ¶4. (U) The government knows that if high unemployment
    persists, political discontent will be difficult to
    contain because unemployment is dramatically skewed along
    racial lines.  Since 1994, scores of unemployed black
    South Africans and "coloureds" have migrated to cities in
    search of work, creating huge shantytowns on the
    periphery.  Some of these shantytowns have already become
    political powderkegs for municipal governments that have
    failed to deliver on the many promises of national
    government (Ref D).  Economists and politicians
    increasingly refer to the broad measure of unemployment,
    which estimates unemployment to be 41%.  Using this broad
    measure, almost 48% of black Africans and over 30% of
    "coloureds" are unemployed -- two racial categories that
    comprise 88% of the population (Refs E, F).

    The Need for Growth
    -------------------
    ¶5. (U) The government faces formidable medium and long-
    term challenges to reduce unemployment, alleviate
    poverty, and eliminate the racial divisions that plague
    South African society.  In 2004, policy makers concluded
    that that, while much had been accomplished to provide
    housing, electricity, water, and other services to the
    poor, the government could not overcome poverty through
    transfer payments alone.  The government now spends 4.5%
    of GDP on child support, disability, and foster care
    grants - constituting one of the largest non-contributory
    income redistribution programs in the world.  Further
    increases in transfer payments risk creating dependencies
    on government and attitudes of entitlement among the
    general population that will ultimately buckle the
    country's relatively small, modern economy.  To eliminate
    extreme poverty and open employment paths to the modern
    economy, policy makers concluded that higher growth was
    needed, of a kind that generated employment opportunities
    for the poor and unskilled.  Without faster economic
    growth, the country had little chance of alleviating
    poverty and virtually no chance of reaching the
    government's goal of halving unemployment by 2014.

    ¶6. (U) In his paper entitled, "The State Must Review
    Priorities and Step Up Performance" published in mid
    2004, President Mbeki's Chief Economic Advisor Alan
    Hirsch argued that the major reason for South Africa's
    relatively modest growth compared to other emerging
    economies was South Africa's low level of fixed
    investment, which had fallen from 28% of GDP in the early
    1980s to only 17% of GDP in early 2005.  Hirsch noted
    that, over the last decade, the government and state-
    owned enterprises, such as Eskom (the electric utility)
    and Transnet (port, rail, and air transportation
    services), had actually consumed more capital than they
    had contributed.  The result was the gradual
    deterioration of the nation's infrastructure, greater
    inefficiency embedded in the economy and, in some cases,
    a loss of international competitiveness for South African
    businesses.  Hirsch argued that South Africa needed to
    raise the level of fixed investment to 20-25% of GDP
    (similar to South Korea and Australia) to drive the kind
    of growth the country needed to successfully reduce
    unemployment and alleviate poverty.  As it stood, public
    sector fixed investment had declined from a peak of about
    16% of GDP in the late 1970s to 4% in early 2004.  While
    domestic private sector investment was holding its own --
    even growing at a healthy rate -- it would not be
    sufficient to spawn rapid growth in the near term without
    increases in foreign direct and/or public sector
    investment. (Ref G)

    If You Build It, They Will Come
    -------------------------------

    ¶7. (U) Hirsch observed that, with the exception of mining
    and manufacturing, South Africa had not been able to
    attract the level of foreign direct investment (FDI) as
    had its peer countries.  In 2003, South Africa attracted
    just $820 million in FDI, much less than Poland and
    Chile, which attracted over $4 billion and $3 billion,
    respectively.  Often cited reasons have been the high
    degree of concentration of ownership in some sectors in
    South Africa, labor market rigidities, affirmative action
    policies, a volatile exchange rate, a high crime rate,
    relatively high interest rates, the low rate of domestic
    growth, social inequality and the perceived will and
    capacity of government to deal its many problems.  While
    policy makers, including Hirsch, recognized that
    "microeconomic reforms" would be needed to address some
    of these issues, they generally concluded that foreign
    investors would come to South Africa once domestic growth
    picked up.

    The Plan for Growth
    -------------------

    ¶8. (U) Given this analysis, policy makers concluded that
    the government should pursue a policy of fiscal expansion
    to promote faster economic growth through greater public
    sector investment.  The ensuing plan was clearly
    articulated by Manuel in his Medium Term Budget Policy
    Statement in October 2004.  Manuel declared that the
    government's goal was to increase the rate of fixed
    investment from 16% of GDP to 25% by 2014 in an effort to
    produce a 6% rate of growth.  Most of the increase in
    fixed investment would come from state-owned enterprises
    and public-private partnerships.  State-owned enterprise
    investment would expand by at least 20% over the next
    five years.  General government would expand fixed
    investment by about 7% a year over the next three years.
    An "Expanded Public Works Program" would create one
    million temporary jobs in a range of sectors over the
    next five years.  Public sector borrowing would increase
    from under 1% of GDP in 2002 to 4.6% in 2007; interest on
    public debt would ultimately stabilize at around 4.5% of
    GDP. (Ref H)

    ¶9. (U) Manuel reserved a starring role for Eskom and
    Transnet, state owned enterprises that the government
    would spare from privatization for the time being.  Eskom
    would spend up to $16 billion on new power plants and the
    expansion of its transmission network.  Transnet would
    spend up to $7 billion in port projects and almost $1
    billion on the refurbishment of 24,000 freight rail
    wagons.  These investments would create jobs, stimulate
    economic growth, and raise the competitiveness of export
    related industries. (Ref B)

    ¶10. (U) Manuel also reserved a starring role for
    national, provincial, and municipal government to entice
    the private sector to invest alongside government through
    an extensive program of public-private partnerships.
    Guidelines were issued and a unit created in Treasury to
    govern the process.  Treasury projected an increase in
    capital spending associated with public-private
    partnerships, from about $300 million in 2003 to about
    $800 million in 2007. (Ref A)

    Challenges
    ----------

    ¶11. (U) A successful public sector-led growth strategy
    will hinge on the ability of government and state owned
    enterprise to implement it.  President Mbeki has readily
    conceded that the "Achilles heel" of his effort to
    transform South Africa is the shortage of skilled persons
    to carry out needed reforms and implement government
    programs.  In June, Minister of Provincial and Local
    Government Sydney Mufamadi admitted to Parliament that
    136 of 284 municipalities were "under performing."
    [Note: The exact definition of "under-performing has not
    been made public, but is likely to include the inability
    to deliver basic services, shrink the housing backlog,
    disburse funds, and file reports to provincial and
    national government in accordance with the Municipal
    Financial Management Act. End Note.]  State owned
    enterprises have had their own management difficulties,
    making Minister of Public Enterprises Alec Erwin's
    central mission to ensure that these enterprises are
    strong enough to accomplish government's objectives (Refs
    B and D).

    ¶12. (U) Recently, rigid labor policies have become a
    public policy concern.  Companies seem to avoid hiring
    because of the costs and legal obligations that it
    imposes.  As a result, the most successful firms in South
    Africa continue to be those that are capital intensive,
    such as metals processing, chemicals, and pulp and paper.
    Labor-intensive industries such as clothing and textiles,
    footwear, food processing, wood and wood products are for
    the most part weak competitors against cheap imports.  A
    debate has been initiated on how to make it easier to
    hire unskilled workers.  There is concern that government
    training programs are not effective in meeting the demand
    for skilled labor.

    ¶13. (U) In June 2005, the ANC released a controversial
    document, penned by Deputy Minister of Finance Jabu
    Moleketi, entitled "Development and Underdevelopment -
    Learning from Experience to Overcome the Two Economy
    Divide" that suggested a more flexible labor regime.
    Proposals included waiving minimum wage and other
    collective bargaining arrangements for younger workers,
    establishing a separate regime for certain sectors such
    as tourism, textiles and clothing, agriculture, small and
    medium enterprises, as well as household and child care,
    and establishing a separate regime for industrial
    development zones.  The document evoked considerable
    criticism from the union and communist wings of the ANC
    at its National General Council Meeting in July 2005.
    The political jury is still out. (Ref C)

    ¶14. (U) On July 24 2005, after a three-day cabinet
    retreat, President Mbeki publicly embraced the 6% growth
    target and announced the formation of a high-level
    economic task force headed by Deputy President Phumzile
    Mlambo-Ngcuka to find ways to achieve it.  Task force
    members include Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, Trade and
    Industry Minister Mandisi Mpalhwa, and the premiers from
    Guateng and Eastern Cape Provinces.  They are charged
    with proposing ways to speed up growth and job creation
    in time for the Medium Term Expenditure Framework due in
    Parliament in October.

    Comment: The Prospect for Growth
    ---------------------------------

    ¶15. (SBU) A growth rate of 3.7% created a net 168,000
    jobs for the economy in 2004, but economists agree that
    job growth will have to be considerably higher to make a
    real dent in unemployment.  Most economists agree that an
    average annual growth rate in the neighborhood of 6% or
    more would be needed to reduce unemployment and poverty
    in half by 2014.  Hirsch and other policy makers assume
    that a 25% fixed investment to GDP ratio would be
    required to achieve 6% growth, but do not see it
    happening until 2014.  The Department of Treasury expects
    growth to be 4.3% in 2005 and to average 4.2% per year
    over the next three years.

    ¶16. (SBU) While the level of fixed investment needed to
    stimulate higher growth and significantly reduce
    unemployment can be debated, the shear volume of public
    sector investment that the government is prepared to push
    onto the economy is bound to stimulate growth above the
    country's ten year average of 3.0%, reduce unemployment
    levels, and hopefully the number of people living in
    poverty.  The real question is "How much bang for the
    buck will the government get?"

    ¶17. (SBU) Prospects for short-term success would improve
    if municipalities were better able to manage their public-
    private partnerships, if state owned enterprises were
    better managed, and if there were better skills
    development programs for the unemployed.  Prospects for
    long-term success and the trajectory for growth would
    improve if the government could afford more fixed
    investment in the early years.  This leads us to conclude
    that foreign development assistance that added to the
    size of the stimulus in the early years, or to the
    ability of government to manage the stimulus, would go a
    long way in helping South Africa achieve higher,
    sustainable growth, reduce unemployment, and alleviate
    poverty sooner rather than later.  Given that South
    Africa is perhaps the only real engine of growth for sub-
    Saharan Africa, we would like to see that happen sooner.

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