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### Viewing cable 04CARACAS1479, VENEZUELA MACROECONOMIC UPDATE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04CARACAS1479 | 2004-05-03 16:26 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Caracas

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS  CARACAS 001479

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR WHA/AND, WHA/EPSC, EB
    TREASURY FOR OASIA - GIANLUCA SIGNORELLI
    USCINCSO FOR POLAD

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EFIN PGOV VE
    SUBJECT: VENEZUELA MACROECONOMIC UPDATE

    --------
    OVERVIEW
    --------

    ¶1. (U) Venezuela's most recently published economic
    indicators illustrate the negative effects of deep
    recession, exchange and price controls, and chronic fiscal
    deficits. Strong international reserves position and high
    average oil prices have contributed to reduce the country
    risk and facilitated the partial public external debt
    refinancing. However, the current political uncertainty is
    affecting the economic decision-making for both the private
    and public sectors. NOTE: Most official data reported here
    does not include Q1 of 2004.

    ---------------
    ECONOMIC GROWTH
    ---------------

    ¶2. (U) Total GDP decreased 9.2 percent in real terms during
    2003 compared with the previous year. This figure was the
    steepest decline in Venezuelan history. The hardest-hit
    sectors were construction (-37.4 percent), commerce (-12.0
    percent), petroleum (-10.7 percent), and manufacturing
    (-10.6 percent). During the last quarter of 2003, Venezuela
    registered a GDP increase of 9 percent after seven
    consecutive quarters of economic recession. A recovery is
    foreseen during 2004 after two consecutive years of severe
    economic contraction.

                        REAL GDP GROWTH RATE
                            (PERCENTAGE)
                        --------------------

                           OIL      NON-OIL     TOTAL

    1994                   4.6       (4.5)      (2.8)
    1995                   7.1        2.5        4.0
    1996                   7.7       (2.5)      (0.2)
    1997                   9.4        4.2        6.4
    1998                   2.0       (0.9)       0.2
    1999                  (7.4)      (5.4)      (6.1)
    2000                   3.2        3.0        3.2
    2001                  (0.9)       4.0        2.8
    2002                 (12.6)      (6.5)      (8.9)
    2003(1)              (10.7)      (8.0)      (9.2)

    (1) Preliminary figures

    SOURCE:  Central Bank of Venezuela.

    ------------
    UNEMPLOYMENT
    ------------

    ¶3. (U) Second semester 2003 figures (the latest published as
    of April 28, 2004) from the National Institute of Statistics
    (INE) indicate an unemployment rate of 16.8 percent. This
    figure represents 2.01 million unemployed out of a labor
    force of 12.01 million, and a total population of 25.63
    million. Shifts in the work force from the formal to the
    informal sector of the economy, which accounts for more than
    a half of the occupied working labor force, have mitigated
    unemployment to some extent. However, some economists
    suggest that the informal sector may have reached its
    capacity to absorb new entrants.

        UNEMPLOYMENT (percentage in second semester)
        --------------------------------------------

    1996                              12.4
    1997                              10.6
    1998                              11.0
    1999                              14.5
    2000                              13.2
    2001                              12.8
    2002                              16.2
    2003                              16.8

    SOURCE:  GOV National Institute of Statistics (INE).

    --------------------------

    OIL PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS
    --------------------------

    ¶4. (U) Oil production and export reductions during 2003 were
    partially offset by the increase in the average export price
    during the year. The total value of oil exports reached USD
    20.8 billion in 2003 with an average export price of USD
    25.7 per barrel. Venezuela's OPEC production quota is 2.704
    million barrels a day starting on April 1, 2004. Oil prices
    have been increasing during 2004, reaching a record high of
    USD 30.9 per barrel during the last week of March.

              OIL PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS (THOUSAND B/D)
              -----------------------------------------
                                   AVERAGE
                                 EXPORT PRICE   EXPORTS
           PRODUCTION(2) EXPORTS   (USD/B)    (USD MILLION)

    1996      2,984      2,752       18.4        18,523
    1997      3,248      3,052       16.3        18,180
    1998      3,279      3,116       10.6        12,111
    1999      2,950      2,785       16.0        16,419
    2000      3,060      2,791       25.9        27,884
    2001      3,044      2,711       20.2        21,574
    2002      2,567      2,432       22.0        21,530
    2003 (3)  2,330      1,963       25.7        20,831

    (2) Crude oil, including condensates.
    (3) Preliminary figures.

    SOURCE: Central Bank of Venezuela, and private sector
    estimates.

    ---------------
    MONEY SUPPLY/M2
    ---------------

    ¶5. (U) Monetary liquidity increased 57.5 percent during
    2003, largely as a result of exchange controls. This the
    highest money supply annual increase of the last six years.
    Most of the excess liquidity accumulated in the economy
    during these months was withdrawn by the BCV by allocating
    government bonds and certificates of deposits to domestic
    banks. Liquidity could continue to grow during the first
    half of 2004 because of the expected government expenditure
    increase.

               MONEY SUPPLY/M2 (4)       MONETARY BASE
              --------------------  ---------------------

    End of: (million Bs.) Pct.Chg. (million Bs.) Pct.Chg.

    1996      5,493,813     55.4      1,675,799    92.1
    1997      8,956,161     63.0      3,004,685    79.3
    1998     10,621,645     18.6      3,717,323    23.7
    1999     12,740,836     20.0      4,909,822    32.1
    2000     16,284,578     27.8      5,790,841    17.9
    2001     16,976,364      4.2      6,478,295    11.9
    2002     19,573,369     15.3      7,701,120    18.9
    2003     30,835,975     57.5     11,274,439    46.4

    2004 (5)
    JAN      30,279,535     (1.8)    10,752,425    (4.6)
    FEB      31,815,818      5.1     10,762,152     0.1
    MAR      32,311,341      1.6     13,219,845    22.8

    (4) M2 includes currency, demand deposits, savings
        and certificates of deposit.
    (5) Preliminary figures.

    SOURCE:  Central Bank of Venezuela.

    --------------------
    CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
    --------------------

    ¶6. (U) The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) reported that
    consumer prices for the Caracas metropolitan area rose 21.9
    percent from February 2003 to February 2004. Consumer prices
    lagged producer prices, however, as wholesale prices
    increased by 36.7 percent during the same period. (Note: The
    GOV imposed price controls February 11, 2003 on some primary

    food items, pharmaceuticals, and personal care products as a
    complement to the exchange control regime.)

                CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (1997 AVG =100)
                ------------------------------------
                   END OF PERIOD    PCT CHANGE

    1992                10.7            31.9
    1993                15.6            45.8
    1994                26.6            70.5
    1995                41.6            56.4
    1996                84.6           103.2
    1997               116.5            37.6
    1998               151.3            29.9
    1999               181.6            20.0
    2000               206.0            13.4
    2001               231.3            12.3
    2002               303.5            31.2
    2003               385.7            27.1

    2004
    JAN                395.4             2.5
    FEB                401.6             1.6
    MAR                410.2             2.1

    SOURCE:  Central Bank of Venezuela.

    --------------
    INTEREST RATES
    --------------

    ¶7. (U) Interest rates reported by the Central Bank in 2004
    continue the downward trend of 2003. Weak credit demand and
    excess liquidity because of the strict application of
    exchange controls were the most important causes of this
    trend. The spread between lending and deposit rates
    decreased from 6.59 percent in January 2004 to 4.72 percent
    in March 2004.

          AVERAGE INTEREST RATES OF THE SIX MOST IMPORTANT
                   COMMERCIAL AND UNIVERSAL BANKS
          --------------------------------------------- ---
                       Loans            Deposits
                      -------      -------------------
                                    Savings   90 days

    1996               37.22         18.36     26.85
    1997               22.16          6.84     14.62
    1998               45.21         10.25     38.02
    1999               31.89          7.05     18.90
    2000               23.91          3.35     14.80
    2001               25.64          2.40     14.13
    2002               37.08          3.90     28.29
    2003               24.05          6.17     17.58

    2004
    JAN                18.38          5.19     11.79
    FEB                18.08          4.54     10.84
    MAR                17.56          4.56     12.84

    SOURCE:  Central Bank of Venezuela.

    -------------
    EXCHANGE RATE
    -------------

    ¶8. (U) The exchange control system pegged the bolivar at
    1,600/USD on February 5, 2003. One year later, on February 5,
    2004, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank devalued the
    Bolivar 20 percent, to 1,920.00. A National Exchange Control
    Administration (CADIVI) oversees all official foreign exchange
    transactions. CADIVI's heavy bureaucratic burden on official
    exchange, Venezuela's dependence on imported food and
    manufactured goods, and the petroleum sector's need for access to
    dollars have resulted in the official exchange rate being
    overvalued again. The parallel market exchange rate closed at
    around 3,100/USD at the end of March 2004.

                  ANNUAL AND MONTHLY EXCHANGE RATES
                        (SELL RATE) (BS/USD)
                ------------------------------------------

                                              AVERAGE
             END OF PERIOD    AVERAGE        PCT CHANGE

    1996        476.50         417.34          136.1
    1997        504.25         488.59           17.0
    1998        564.50         547.55           12.1
    1999        648.25         605.70           10.6
    2000        699.75         679.93           12.3
    2001        763.00         723.67            6.4
    2002      1,401.25       1,160.95           60.4
    2003      1,600.00       1,608.63           38.6

    2004
    JAN       1,600.00       1,600.00           -0.5
    FEB       1,920.00       1,825.88           14.1
    MAR       1,920.00       1,920.00            0.0

    SOURCE:  Central Bank of Venezuela.

    -------------------------
    MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE
    -------------------------

    ¶9. (U) Non-oil exports decreased 4.0 percent to USD 4.92
    billion during 2003 compared with 2002. According to the
    INE, exports of base metals (aluminum, steel, iron, etc.)
    accounted for 37.9 percent of total non-oil exports for the
    period, followed by mineral products (19.5 percent), and
    chemicals (15.8 percent). The United States was the largest
    recipient of Venezuela's non-oil exports (40.5 percent),
    followed by Colombia (11.9 percent), and Mexico (6.4
    percent). Imports decreased by 21.4 percent during 2003,
    largely because of the imposition of exchange controls.

                 MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE (USD MILLION)
                 ---------------------------------------

                                2002        2003 (6)

    OIL EXPORTS  (A)           21,530      20,831

    NON-OIL EXPORTS (B)         5,126       4,919

    TOTAL EXPORTS (C)          26,656      25,750

    TOTAL IMPORTS (D)         (13,622)    (10,707)

    MERCHANDISE TRADE
    BALANCE (C)-(D)            13,034      15,043

    (6)  Preliminary figures.

    SOURCE: Central Bank of Venezuela.

    -------------------
    BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
    -------------------

    ¶10. (U) Venezuela's balance of payments registered a surplus
    of USD 5.44 billion during 2003, compared with a deficit of
    approximately USD 4.43 billion during 2002. Exchange
    controls and the resulting fall in imports and capital
    flight have contributed in Venezuela's shift from net debtor
    to net creditor.

                     BALANCE OF PAYMENTS SUMMARY
                            (USD MILLION)
           --------------------------------------------- -

                                   2002       2003(7)

    CURRENT ACCOUNT (A)           7,423       9,624
      EXPORTS, FOB               26,656      25,750
      IMPORTS, FOB              (13,622)    (10,707)
        TRADE BALANCE            13,034      15,043
      NET SERVICES AND RENT      (5,446)     (5,417)
      NET TRANSFERS                (165)         (2)
    CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL
    ACCOUNT (B)                  (9,365)     (3,171)
      DIRECT INVESTMENT            (241)      1,388
      PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT       (2,304)     (1,060)
      OTHER INVESTMENT           (6,820)     (3,499)

    NET ERRORS AND
    OMISSIONS (C)                (2,485)     (1,010)
    OVERALL BALANCE
    (A)+(B)+(C)                  (4,427)      5,443

    (7)  Preliminary figures.

    SOURCE:  Central Bank of Venezuela.

    ----------------------
    INTERNATIONAL RESERVES
    ----------------------

    ¶11. (U) BCV-held international reserves have been increasing
    continuously since the exchange controls were imposed in
    February 2003. Reserves are currently 53.6 percent above
    their levels one year ago, as foreign exchange transactions
    remain suppressed. Of the total amount of reserves (USD 23.3
    billion) at the end of March 2004, around USD 4.6 billion
    (or 19.7 percent) were in monetary gold.

               INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (USD MILLIONS)
              ---------------------------------------
                          BCV       FIEM        TOTAL

    1996 DEC            15,229        -        15,229
    1997 DEC            17,818        -        17,818
    1998 DEC            14,849        -        14,849
    1999 DEC            15,164       215       15,379
    2000 DEC            15,883     4,588       20,471
    2001 DEC            12,296     6,227       18,523
    2002 DEC            12,003     2,857       14,860
    2003 DEC            20,666       700       21,366

    2004
    JAN                 21,588       701       22,289
    FEB                 21,906       702       22,608
    MAR                 22,560       702       23,262

    SOURCE:  Central Bank of Venezuela.

    ------------------------------------
    CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FINANCIAL RESULTS
    ------------------------------------

    ¶12. (U) The fiscal deficit increased as the government spent
    more than expected during 2003, particularly in the fourth
    quarter. The most important sources of non-oil income were
    the value added tax, the income tax, the Central Bank
    profits, and the bank debit tax. The economic recession
    affected the other non-oil incomes such as customs revenues.
    The 2003 fiscal deficit was mostly financed with domestic
    debt facilitated by the excess liquidity in the financial
    sector due to the exchange controls that were imposed in
    February.

                CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FINANCIAL RESULTS
                      (as a percentage of GDP)
              ----------------------------------------

                                2002      2003

    TOTAL REVENUES              20.5      22.7
       Oil income               10.0      11.1
       Non-oil income           10.5      11.6

    TOTAL EXPENDITURES          25.3      28.5

    FISCAL DEFICIT              (4.8)     (5.8)

    Source: BCV

    ------------------
    PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT
    ------------------

    ¶13. (U) The government was actively refinancing its domestic
    and external debts during 2003. Domestic bonds and treasury
    promissory notes dramatically increased both in the share of
    domestic banks' portfolio holdings and in the share of the
    GOV's debt. During March 2004, the Ministry of Finance
    allocated bonds for the equivalent of USD 3.0 billion, of

    which one third were USD denominated with maturity in six
    months, while the rest were in local currency with
    maturities in 2008, 2009, and 2010.

                   PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT (USD BILLION)
           -------------------------------------------

                                      2002     2003(8)

    FOREIGN DEBT                      22.5     22.8

      CENTRAL GOVERNMENT              20.8     21.5

        RESTRUCTURED DEBT              8.0      8.3
        NON-RESTRUCTURED DEBT         12.8     13.2

      AGENCIES                         1.7      1.3

    DOMESTIC DEBT                     11.0     14.1
                                      ----     ----
    TOTAL PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT          33.5     36.9

    (8) Preliminary figures.

    SOURCES: Ministry of Finance, BBVA Banco Provincial, and
            Embassy's estimates.

    --------------
    BANKING SYSTEM
    --------------

    ¶14. (U) Recession and low consumer confidence have depressed
    credit demand. The percentage of net loans to total deposits
    decreased from 54.46 percent in December 2002 to 32.69 in
    February 2004. The contraction of the economy during 2003
    also affected debtors' ability to pay.  The percentage of
    past due loans increased from December 2003 to February
    ¶2004. This figure is lower than a year before, as banks have
    been cleaning up their credit portfolios, declaring more of
    the past due loans as outright losses.

                    BANKING SYSTEM KEY INDICATORS
                            (percentages)

                               DEC 02    DEC 03    FEB 04
    Past due loans/
    gross loans                  6.76      4.47      4.81

    Credit portfolio allowance/
    past due loans             132.64    179.50    174.61

    Equity/total assets         16.08     14.44     14.64

    Net financial margin/
    average asset                5.32      6.19      7.79

    Net financial margin/
    average equity              35.65     43.95     55.93

    Net loans/
    total deposits              54.46     36.33     32.69

    Source:  SUDEBAN

    -------------------------
    DIRECT FOREIGN INVESTMENT
    -------------------------

    ¶15. (U) New direct foreign investment registered during 2003
    increased to USD 1,174.2 million. Much of this influx was a
    result of major foreign investment in Venezuelan telecom
    giant CANTV.

                     DIRECT FOREIGN INVESTMENT(9)
                          (MILLIONS OF USD)
                   -------------------------------

    1996             1,114.4
    1997               690.1
    1998             1,583.8 (10)
    1999               985.4
    2000               642.9

    2001               948.1
    2002               297.0
    2003             1,174.2 (11)

    (9) Includes investment in the hydrocarbon,
         petrochemical, mining and natural gas sectors.
    (10) Privatization of state steel company (SIDOR).
    (11) This high figure consists largely of investments in
         former state-owned telecoms giant CANTV, made in 1996,
         but for technical reasons only registered by the GOV
         in 2003.

    SOURCES:  SIEX, CONAPRI, and Metroeconomica.

    ----------------------------
    CARACAS STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX
    ----------------------------

    ¶16. (U) The Caracas Stock Exchange (CSE) index closed at a
    record high of 26,579.69 at the end of March 2004,
    increasing 19.7 percent from its close in December. The
    index increased 212.5 percent from its level in March 2003.
    A primary catalyst in this rise is the use of CSE shares to
    acquire American Depositary Receipts on the New York Stock
    Exchange that are then used as foreign exchange vehicles.
    However, the CSE has also benefited from the lack of other
    investment opportunities in the broader economy.

              CARACAS STOCK EXCHANGE CAPITALIZATION INDEX
                    (DECEMBER 1993 = 1,000)
              -------------------------------------------

                        2002       2003       2004

    JANUARY           6,293.89   8,286.65  27,956.14
    FEBRUARY          6,958.39   8,509.56  27,348.36
    MARCH             6,828.04   8,506.59  26,579.69
    APRIL             6,712.57   8,631.60
    MAY               7,422.64  12,799.62
    JUNE              7,452.09  13,666.40
    JULY              7,134.00  14,052.35
    AUGUST            6,793.30  14,497.20
    SEPTEMBER         7,447.71  16,956.29
    OCTOBER           7,741.81  20,413.00
    NOVEMBER          8,015.17  21,397.36
    DECEMBER            (12)    22,203.95

    (12) The CSE was closed during December 2002 because of the
         general strike.

    SOURCE:  Caracas Stock Exchange and Metroeconomica.

    ------------------
    INTERNET RESOURCES
    ------------------

    ¶17.  INTERNET RESOURCES:

    AMEMBASSY CARACAS WEBSITE:  www.embajadausa.org.ve
    -
    EXCHANGE RATES AND INTERNATIONAL RESERVES:  www.bcv.org.ve
    -
    STOCK EXCHANGE:  www.caracasstock.com
    -
    TRADE AND LABOR FORCE STATISTICS:  www.ine.gov.ve
    -
    BUSINESS INFORMATION:  www.venamcham.org
    -
    INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES:  www.conapri.org
    -
    PETROLEUM INFORMATION:  www.pdvsa.com,
    www.mem.gov.ve
    -
    PUBLIC FINANCE INFORMATION: www.mf.gov.ve
    -
    FINANCIAL INDICATORS:  www.sudeban.gov.ve
    -
    ECONOMIC PUBLICATIONS:  www.metroeconomica.com.ve,
    www.veneconomy.com, www.bancomercantil.com,
    www.provincial.com
    -
    E

    NEWSPAPERS:  www.eluniversal.com,
    www.el-nacional.com
    -
    LEGAL PUBLICATIONS:  www.datalegis.com.ve,
    www.bpmaw.com, www.traviesoevans.com,
    www.tpa.com.ve
    -
    VENEZUELAN GOVERNMENT: www.venezuela.gov.ve,
    www.platino.gov.ve

    Shapiro

    NNNN

          2004CARACA01479 - UNCLASSIFIED

`