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### Viewing cable 05OTTAWA3349, ARCTIC GAS PIPELINES REACH KEY DECISION POINTS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05OTTAWA3349 | 2005-11-09 20:38 | 2011-04-28 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ottawa

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

    092038Z Nov 05

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 OTTAWA 003349

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    DEPT FOR WHA/CAN (HOLST, NELSON) AND INR (SALCEDO)

    USDOC FOR 4310/MAC/ONA

    DOE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS: PUMPHREY, DEUTSCH

    DOI FOR OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY: PEARCE

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON ENRG EINV CA
    SUBJECT:  ARCTIC GAS PIPELINES REACH KEY DECISION POINTS

    REF:  OTTAWA 2951

    SUMMARY/INTRODUCTION
    --------------------

    ¶1. (U) SENSITIVE, BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
    OUTSIDE USG CHANNELS.

    ¶2. (U) Summary/Introduction: Both of North America's
    proposed major Arctic natural gas pipeline projects - Alaska
    and Mackenzie - are approaching key milestones:

    - On the Mackenzie project, Canada's National Energy Board
    has asked proponents to indicate by November 18 whether they
    are ready to proceed to public regulatory hearings early in
    ¶2006.  This project would begin delivering about 1.2 billion
    cubic feet per day (BCF/D) around 2011.

    - On the Alaska project, the State of Alaska reached
    agreement on October 21 with ConocoPhillips on key fiscal
    issues and is near agreement with the two other big
    producers, ExxonMobil and BP.  This line would begin
    delivering 4-5 BCF/D around 2016.

    ¶3. (U) Most players would like to see both projects proceed
    on these timelines, in part because Mackenzie would help
    create capacity for Alaska by training construction workers
    and ramping up pipe production.  Constructing both projects
    at the same time, on the other hand, is not desirable
    because it would strain these inputs, increase costs, and
    could depress revenue after startup.

    ¶4. (SBU) According to various reports, the Government of
    Canada would prefer not to address key decisions on Alaska
    until Mackenzie is underway.  However, the lead private
    sector player on Mackenzie - Exxon-controlled Imperial Oil -
    stopped work in April 2005, is frustrated by the difficulty
    of reaching agreements with native groups, and is said by
    some sources to be unenthusiastic about the project's
    economics.  While an ExxonMobil VP told Ambassador Wilkins
    on October 24 that he is confident Mackenzie will go first,
    and ExxonMobil President Rex Tillingsley said the same in a
    speech on November 8, some other players now tell us that
    there is significant risk that Mackenzie's time line will
    slip further, to the point that it might not proceed before
    Alaska, meaning in effect that Mackenzie would be put off
    for ten to twenty years.  We have not been able to evaluate
    the likelihood of this scenario.  Its main consequence for
    U.S. interests might be that GOC decisions on Alaska would
    be held up in 2006-07 while the GOC struggles to rescue the
    Mackenzie project.  END SUMMARY/INTRODUCTION.

    MACKENZIE PROJECT:  BACKGROUND
    ------------------------------

    ¶5. (SBU) Exxon-controlled, Calgary-based Imperial Oil
    Limited is the lead player on the Mackenzie Natural Gas
    Pipeline project, which would bring gas from the Mackenzie
    River delta down the river's valley through the Northwest
    Territories and into Alberta.  This is a relatively
    straightforward construction route with few natural
    obstacles and only three government jurisdictions involved
    (Canada, the NWT and Alberta).  The proposed pipeline is a
    fraction the size of the Alaska project - it would carry 1.2
    BCF/D of gas initially, expandable to 1.9 BCF/D.

    ¶6. (SBU) The main complication is the presence of several
    native groups along the route which have land claims in
    different stages of resolution with the GOC.  These groups
    see the pipeline project as a unique opportunity to
    negotiate various economic benefits from governments and/or
    directly from industry.  While the GOC's Indian and Northern
    Affairs Canada (INAC) is responsible for aboriginal "first
    nations" and for territorial governments, GOC policy is to
    "devolve" authority to these subordinate levels.

    ¶7. (SBU) Under cover of "devolution," the GOC has tended to
    minimize its on-the-ground involvement (i.e. other than
    injecting cash), and this has further encouraged native
    groups to demand that private firms provide quasi-
    governmental infrastructure such as schools and hospitals.
    Companies are understandably concerned that this trend may
    be going too far, and in particular that the GOC is not
    facing up to certain key issues (such as determining the
    native groups' jurisdiction to impose property taxes).
    ¶8. (SBU) In April 2005, Imperial Oil and the two other firms
    involved in the Mackenzie Valley Producers Group (Shell
    Canada and ConocoPhillips Canada), frustrated by native
    groups' demands and unenthusiastic about the project's
    economics, stopped much of their exploratory work in the
    Mackenzie River valley and delta.  Nevertheless, Imperial
    continues to incur legal, negotiating and regulatory costs
    on the project.  An industry insider estimated the current
    sum of these costs at around C$400 million (C$1 currently
    equals about 84 U.S. cents).

    ¶9. (SBU) Since then, gas prices have strengthened and the
    GOC has offered C$500 million over ten years to address
    "socio-economic concerns" along the pipeline route
    (distribution mechanism yet to be determined).  On the other
    hand, it is not clear how much closer native groups are to
    final settlements on "benefits and access" agreements with
    the companies.  As one company official told us, no native
    leader can afford to be perceived as not extracting the
    maximum possible from this once-in-a-lifetime negotiation,
    and with each group cutting a separate deal, none can appear
    to be getting less than another.  This makes for difficult,
    never-quite-finished bargaining.  A lesser problem, another
    said, was that government departments/agencies conduct their
    review of the project's regulatory application not through
    independent research, but by requesting further information
    from the companies ("getting the project to do their work
    for them").  This source said that while this problem is now
    under control, in early 2005, seventy percent of regulatory
    interventions originated with federal officials.

    STATUS:  HOPING FOR HEARINGS IN 2006, FIRST GAS IN 2011
    --------------------------------------------- ----------

    ¶10. (SBU) Currently, the optimistic timeframe for the
    Mackenzie project runs as follows:

    -- In coming weeks, companies and native groups achieve (and
    hopefully announce) further progress on "benefit and access
    agreements."

    -- By November 18, the companies (the Mackenzie Valley
    Producers Group, represented by Imperial Oil) notify the
    federal-territorial Joint Review Panel (JRP) that they are
    ready to proceed to public review hearings.

    -- The National Energy Board holds a Pre-hearing Planning
    Conference (Conference) in the Northwest Territories during
    the weeks of 5 and 12 December to inform residents of the
    NEB's role and to shape the public hearing process.  If the
    companies do not indicate their readiness to the JRP, this
    conference will not take place.

    -- Public hearings would run approximately from January-
    July 2006.

    -- The GOC then adds its comments and the application
    proceeds to the National Energy Board in late 2006.

    -- Realistically, the first flow of gas would occur in
    2011 "even if all goes well."

    MACKENZIE:  GETTING CLOSER TO THE EDGE?
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶11. (SBU) Some of our pipeline industry contacts say
    that Imperial is already unenthusiastic about
    Mackenzie's economics, due to native groups' demands
    combined with parent firm ExxonMobil's relatively
    conservative outlook for natural gas pricing in North
    America five to ten years out.  Mackenzie's expected
    delivery of 1-2 BCF/day is equivalent to one or two LNG
    terminals, meaning that Mackenzie's market opportunities
    could be "filled in" by a couple of the LNG projects now
    being contemplated.  (The Alaska project, being larger,
    is less vulnerable to such displacement).  On the other
    hand, ExxonMobil's Vice-President for the Americas
    assured Ambassador Wilkins on October 24 that Mackenzie
    will proceed before Alaska and that "as long as the
    parties remain in dialog then the project remains on
    track."  Speaking in Calgary on November 8, ExxonMobil
    President Rex Tillerson told the Canadian American
    Business Council that "my expectation is that we'll
    ultimately get across the finish line" with Mackenzie.

    ¶12. (SBU) Despite these assurances, some well-placed
    interlocutors have told us that it is now entirely
    possible that the Mackenzie project will be delayed
    indefinitely, mainly due to its possible interplay with
    the Alaska pipeline.  While public statements continue
    to say that Mackenzie will deliver gas "by the end of
    the decade," at least three or four years ahead of
    Alaska, pipeline industry sources say that nothing
    earlier than 2011 is realistic.  This narrows the window
    over which the Mackenzie line can be expected to be
    serving a tight natural gas market.  Moreover, the
    closer the two projects occur in time, the more they are
    likely to compete for scarce skilled workers, large-
    diameter steel pipe, and other inputs, thus rising
    inflation in construction costs.

    ¶13. (SBU) Because the Arctic construction season is
    short, if Mackenzie's timeline slips even by a few
    months, this might push construction and completion out
    by another year.  The implication is that if JRP public
    hearings do not begin by February, the risk in terms of
    eventual market price for the gas, combined with an
    increased risk that the timeline will overlap with
    Alaska's, could incline Imperial to put off the
    Mackenzie project - at least until the continental
    market absorbs Alaskan (and possibly LNG) gas supplies,
    and promise to tighten again - which could take another
    ten to twenty years.

    ALASKA PROJECT:  THE VIEW FROM OTTAWA
    -------------------------------------

    ¶14. (SBU) The Alaska project will reportedly continue to
    be far down the GOC's list of priorities until Mackenzie
    appears to be well underway.  Also, the GOC's Natural
    Resources ministry has suffered from a lack of
    leadership which is not fully resolved (reftel).  Even
    were it to focus on the Alaska project, the GOC would
    not want to risk appearing to facilitate it at the
    expense of Mackenzie.  To complicate matters, there is a
    growing possibility of an election campaign in mid-
    winter, and the government is already in campaign mode.

    ¶15. (SBU) We expected the State of Alaska's October 21
    announcement of a "base fiscal contract agreement" with
    ConocoPhillips to renew pressure on the Mackenzie
    players to settle their differences and move toward
    public hearings.  The subsequent controversy in Juneau
    (over whether the agreement protected the State's
    interests) may have had the opposite effect, encouraging
    native groups in the Mackenzie Valley to believe they
    have a further opportunity to hold out.

    ¶16. (SBU) Canadian energy patch observers continue to
    agree that the GOC is focused on ensuring that the
    Mackenzie project not only gets built, but gets built
    before Alaska.  As the Alaska project draws closer to
    reality, the GOC will have increasing difficulty
    avoiding its fundamental dilemma.  That dilemma is
    whether/how to choose between two regulatory regimes:
    the 1970's-era "National Pipeline Act" process (which
    TransCanada PipeLines asserts gives that company
    exclusive rights to develop the Canadian segment of the
    project), or the more modern and open "National Energy
    Board" process (which would allow proposals by other
    possible lead players, including TCPL arch-rival
    Enbridge Pipelines Inc.)   Previous Prime Minister Jean
    Chretien went on record as having a preference for the
    NPA process.  Various observers suggest that by
    remaining silent on this issue, the GOC is sending a
    signal that regulatory applications can be filed under
    either process - in effect, "letting the market decide."
    ExxonMobil's VP for the Americas told Ambassador Wilkins
    that he considers the GOC's silence to be
    acknowledgement that both processes remain available to
    project developers.

    WILKINS

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