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### Viewing cable 04PRETORIA5007, SOUTH AFRICA: FINANCE MINISTER SPELLS OUT

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04PRETORIA5007 | 2004-11-17 10:19 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Pretoria

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 PRETORIA 005007

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED

    DEPT FOR AF/S; AF/EPS; EB/IFD/OMA
    USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/MAC/AME/OA/DIEMOND
    TREASURY FOR OAISA/BARBER/WALKER/JEWELL
    USTR FOR COLEMAN
    LONDON FOR GURNEY; PARIS FOR NEARY

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EINV EFIN ETRD SF
    SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA: FINANCE MINISTER SPELLS OUT
    PRIORITIES

    REF: A. PRETORIA 4879

         ¶B. PRETORIA 4809

    Sensitive But Unclassified; Protect Accordingly

    ¶1. (U) Summary.  Finance Minister Trevor Manuel addressed
    Parliament on October 26 to table the Medium Term Policy
    Statement, an appropriations adjustment bill, and a tax
    amendment.  He presented a detailed overview of the
    government's development priorities over the next three years
    and economic outlook.  Manuel said that sound fiscal
    management and successful inflation targeting meant that the
    government could now focus more on growing the economy "to
    create employment, and to generate resources to plow into
    education, health care, social security, fighting crime, and
    reducing poverty."  He predicted growth would average 4% over
    the next three years and flatly declared that the
    government's goal was to increase the rate of gross fixed
    capital formation from 16% of GDP to 25% by 2014.  While
    acknowledging that private sector investment would be
    responsible for most of this increase, he focused most of his
    discussion on what the public sector needed to do.  Manuel
    warned that public sector borrowing would rise as state-owned
    enterprises borrowed from capital markets to fund a large
    proportion of their infrastructure investment.

    ¶2. (U) Manuel departed from political convention on several
    occasions.  He commented that the ownership criteria in some
    draft Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) charters were self
    defeating, leading to unnecessarily complex and risky
    financing structures.  Just as critical, he thought, was
    building the economy, increasing production, creating jobs,
    developing young black managers, and investing in social
    development.  Manuel conceded that immigrant skills could be
    critical to growth, since it would take time before education
    and training programs yielded substantial returns to the
    economy.  Manuel admitted that the social security net was
    under severe strain, and should be removed from the provinces
    and consolidated under a new national social welfare agency
    that would be able to stem the flow of grants to people who
    did not warrant them.  Finally, he said that the Cabinet
    wanted to introduce an index to monitor government
    administered prices in electricity, water, transport,
    education, and health sectors -- all of which seemed to be
    growing faster than inflation.  End Summary.

    ¶3. (U) Finance Minister Trevor Manuel addressed Parliament on
    October 26 to table the Cabinet's Medium Term Policy
    Statement, the Adjustments Appropriations Bill, and the
    Revenue Laws Amendment Bill.  Manuel's speech reflected the
    government's growing confidence in its ability to manage the
    economy.  Manuel made the point that sound fiscal policy and
    inflation targeting had contributed to lower interest rates
    and buoyant consumer demand.  This, in concert with high
    commodity prices and a strong international economy, had
    fomented greater local business confidence.  He said that
    trade reforms of the 1990s had caused South African business
    to become internationally competitive and more able to
    penetrate new markets.  The result was that domestic
    investment was evident across a wide range of sectors --
    particularly construction, services, and manufacturing -- and
    more balanced growth.  Moreover, strong capital inflows meant
    that the country could finance a higher current account
    deficit and use that deficit to grow faster.  Manuel
    concluded that the reforms of the last ten years were now
    bearing fruit.

    State of the Economy
    --------------------

    ¶4. (U) While the South African economy grew just under 3% per
    year since 1994, Manuel said that government projections
    suggested that the economy would now grow faster.  Manuel
    confirmed the government's forecast at least 2.9% growth in
    ¶2004.  However, continued fiscal stimulus, firm commodity
    prices, and a more competitive real exchange rate (assumed in
    the future) along with low interest rates and rising income
    would support an average of 4% growth over the next three
    years.  At this point, Manuel broke from his prepared text to
    say that he, personally, felt 4% was a conservative estimate;
    actual growth might be closer to 5%.

    ¶5. (U) Manuel reaffirmed his commitment to inflation
    targeting, predicting that CPIX (consumer inflation less
    mortgage costs) would remain firmly within the 3-6% target
    range over next three years.  He pointed out that sticking to
    the target thus far had successfully lowered inflation
    expectations.  While high oil prices posed risks to both
    global growth and domestic inflation, projected inflation for
    2004, at 4.4%, would still fall within the target range.
    Administered prices, on the other hand, had become a subject
    of Cabinet attention.  Manuel noted that the Cabinet wanted
    to introduce an index to monitor administered prices in
    electricity, water, transport, education, and health sectors
    -- all of which seemed to be growing faster than inflation.
    While administered prices still needed to balance price
    stability, capital requirements, and service delivery
    objectives, the Cabinet also felt that there was room to
    improve the price setting process.

    ¶6. (U) Manuel was mindful of the current strength of the
    rand, particularly vis-a-vis the dollar.  He acknowledged
    that there were adjustment problems for industry at R6 to the
    dollar and equally important problems at R10 to the dollar,
    especially with oil prices at record highs.  On the bright
    side, he thought that business confidence in the face of a
    strong rand revealed South African resiliency and improved
    competitiveness, and also reflected the general perception
    that doing business in South Africa now carried lower risk.

    Priorities
    ----------

    ¶7. (U) Manuel reminded Parliament of President Mbeki's three
    challenges: 1) to encourage the growth and development of the
    First Economy to increase employment; 2) to address the
    challenges of the Second Economy; and 3) to build a social
    security net to alleviate poverty.  With these in mind,
    Manuel said that the government could now focus more on
    growing the economy "to create employment, and to generate
    resources to plow into education, health care, social
    security, fighting crime, and reducing poverty."  He said
    that for the first time in ten years, there was evidence that
    growth was resulting in employment gains.  Between March 2003
    and 2004, South Africa gained 400,000 new jobs, causing the
    official unemployment rate to fall by 3.4%.

    ¶8. (U) Manuel outlined the government's short and long-term
    approaches to growth.  In the short-term, targeted incentives
    and public works programs would accelerate investment and job
    creation.  In addition, the government would take measures to
    make the distribution and pricing of water and energy
    resources more efficient.  Manuel conceded that immigrant
    skills could be critical in the short-term, since it would
    take time before education and training programs yielded
    substantial returns to the economy.  In the long-term, Manuel
    said that the government had to pay attention to investment
    in economic infrastructure (including electricity supply and
    rail service), regional development policy reform, and more
    effective competition policy.

    ¶9. (U) During this discussion, Manuel highlighted sequencing
    and coordination issues in social policy.  Housing programs
    could be accelerated, he said, but needed to be aligned with
    regional development plans, job creation, and community
    services.  Social health insurance was a long-term goal that
    needed to be preceded by the modernization of public
    hospitals.  Land redistribution and BEE agricultural
    development needed to move forward, but not until the
    restitution program was completed and needed bureaucratic
    resources freed.

    The First Economy
    -----------------

    ¶10. (U) Manuel flatly declared that the Government's goal was
    to increase the rate of gross fixed capital formation from
    16% of GDP to 25% by 2014.  To do this, the Government would
    pursue a supportive investment environment which included
    moderate inflation, low real interest rates, a stable and
    competitive currency, and implementation of certain
    microeconomic reforms.  Manuel was encouraged by 7% private
    sector investment growth in 2003 and 7.6% in the first half
    of 2004.  While acknowledging that most investment in the
    economy would have to come from the private sector, he then
    spent more time talking about what the public sector would
    do.  This included employing public-private partnerships to
    overhaul the country's public transport systems, investing in
    ports, and renewing the country's rolling stock.  Other
    public sector priorities included investment in health and
    education infrastructure, roads, housing, as well as
    expanding water and electricity services to the poor.
    ¶11. (U) In a departure from past ministerial statements,
    Manuel admitted that the ownership criteria in some draft BEE
    charters were not realistic, leading to unnecessarily complex
    and risky financing structures.  This was self-defeating, he
    said.  While increasing the level of ownership of black
    people in corporate South Africa remained critical, just as
    critical was building the economy, increasing production,
    creating jobs, developing young black managers, and investing
    in social development.  At the same time, Manuel lauded the
    Financial Services BEE Charter for providing the impetus
    behind the launch of the low-cost Mzansi bank account that
    was designed to attract millions to the formal banking system.

    The Second Economy
    ------------------

    ¶12. (U) To foster development of the country's "Second
    Economy," Manuel said that the government would have to
    balance direct income support with investing in human
    capital.  This covered a wide spectrum of programs, including
    expanded public works programs to create jobs and
    infrastructure, housing and municipal grants,
    micro-enterprise development, skills development, land
    restitution, land reform, and agricultural support programs.
    Manuel also promised that the 2005 budget would further raise
    teacher salaries.  He said that the renewal of the primary
    school nutrition program under the education departments of
    the provinces was already in progress.  The provinces would
    receive additional funding to cover increases in social
    grants, higher personnel costs, greater infrastructure
    spending, and the consolidation of spending programs in
    education and health.

    Social Security Net
    -------------------

    ¶13. (U) Manuel admitted that the social security net was
    under severe strain.  Social welfare services were unable to
    respond adequately to the range of needs and distress that
    confronted them.  In particular, the rapid growth in
    disability and foster care grant applications indicated both
    rising income support needs and deficiencies in
    administrative systems.  He added that the caseloads in
    public hospitals and clinics reflected large numbers of
    victims of crime, road accidents, and disease -- especially
    HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis.  Manuel stated that the government
    believed that a single Social Security Agency would be better
    able to target and deliver social welfare grant programs.  A
    national agency would to tighten procedures, develop clear
    qualifications for the grants, and reduce the number of
    welfare grants going to people who did not warrant them.

    ¶14. (U) Manuel explained that the administration of social
    security grants would shift to the new national agency once
    it was up and running.  In the interim, the provinces would
    continue to deliver social welfare grants under the
    conditional funding category from the national budget instead
    of equitable share funding as was now the case.  The
    provincial equitable share formula would be adjusted to take
    this shift into account as well as 2001 census data.  He said
    that the restructured equitable share formula would have a
    larger education and health components and no longer
    contingent on social welfare payments taking priority over
    other categories of expenditures.  This change would allow
    for a more stable budgeting process for education and health.
     In addition, he said that the housing grant would receive a
    substantial boost, and a new housing strategy, focusing more
    on the creation of whole communities, would be phased in over
    the next three years, together with the expanded provision of
    basic household services.

    Fiscal Policy
    -------------

    ¶15. (U) Manuel said that after a concerted effort to reduce
    the budget deficit between 1996-2001, the government was now
    able to increase public expenditure in real terms through
    borrowing at lower interest rates and managing a higher
    budget deficit.  He said that in 2003/4 the government
    recorded a budget deficit of 2.4%, a bit higher than
    predicted because revenue fell a bit below expectations.
    Revenues should be above expectations in 2004, but greater
    spending on social security grants and wages (government
    workers successfully went on strike recently for an above
    inflation wage increase) should result in a budget deficit of
    3.2% of GDP as compared to the 3.1% expected.  Manuel
    predicted that for 2005, rising corporate profits, continued
    strength in VAT and personal income tax receipts, and further
    broadening of the tax base would result in a moderate
    increase in overall revenue.  He said that the budget deficit
    was expected to widen to 3.5% of GDP next year, bringing net
    borrowing to its highest level relative to GDP since 1997/8.
    Nonetheless, he projected that the deficit in 2007/8 should
    fall to 2.7% and that debt service costs should stabilize at
    about 3.6% of GDP.

    ¶16. (U) Manuel added that R50 billion in extra spending would
    be added to the budget estimates.  Of this, about R21 billion
    would finance growth in disability and foster care grants.
    Over the next two years, the rest would go to fund recently
    agreed salary increases for government workers, the land
    restitution program, social welfare grants, and increased
    salary payments from increased government hiring.  In third
    year, additional allocations would be required for
    infrastructure, education and training, and municipal
    services.

    ¶17. (U) Manuel warned that public sector borrowing would rise
    as state-owned enterprises borrowed from capital markets to
    fund a large proportion of their investment in
    infrastructure.  New borrowing to finance provincial and
    municipal government spending on infrastructure projects
    would also contribute to the growth in public sector debt.
    The Treasury expected public sector borrowing to reach 4.6%
    of GDP in 2007.  Since the debt would be directed toward
    improving the country's economic infrastructure, it would be
    supportive of growth.

    ¶18. (U) Manuel said that revenue was R5.1 billion short in
    2003 mainly because of lower profits in resources sector.
    However, he expected revenue to exceed its target for 2004.
    In 2005, the contribution from the resources sector would
    likely remain below target, but should be offset by a
    recovery in VAT and personal income tax receipts.

    Tax Policy
    ----------

    ¶19. (U) Manuel said that tax relief would not be a prominent
    feature in the 2005 budget.  However, efforts to simplify the
    income tax system and reduce the compliance burden on small
    businesses would continue, as would consideration of easing
    taxes related to health insurance.

    ¶20. (U) One of the purposes of Manuel's presentation to
    Parliament was to introduce the 2004 Revenue Laws Amendment
    Bill.  He explained that the amendment contained measures to
    encourage foreign investment and improve South Africa's
    position as a regional economic center.  These included the
    elimination of the existing tax on interest-bearing
    investments by residents from Swaziland, Namibia, and
    Lesotho, changes to the VAT to support South Africa's
    position as a freight distribution hub, and allowing
    companies to distribute shares valued up to R9000 to
    employees over a three-year period without any tax
    consequences under certain conditions.  On the other hand,
    Manuel said that tax benefits from share options for
    high-income earners would be subject to more stringent
    limitations.

    ¶21. (U) Manuel also said that the Treasury was undertaking
    reviews of the South African pension fund industry from both
    a regulatory and a tax perspective to derive a regulatory
    framework that had more transparent disclosure rules
    regarding costs and benefits, encouraged the preservation of
    built-up reserves and discourage early withdrawals, and
    improved competition in the industry by providing incentives
    for portability.  Manuel said that a discussion paper on the
    regulatory aspects of pension funds would be released for
    comment later this year.  It would be followed by a tax
    policy discussion paper that dealt with existing shortcomings
    of the pension fund tax regime and proposing changes that
    would align South Africa's taxes in this area with
    international best practices.  He explained that the central
    aim was to protect and promote individual savings for
    retirement.

    ¶22. (U) With respect to the mining industry, Manuel stated
    that the 2003 Mineral and Petroleum Royalty Bill would have
    to be revised to address outstanding issues such as the
    differentiation of royalty rates, marginal mine treatment,
    the elimination of the double royalty risk, and transitional
    matters.  He said that Treasury would undertake a holistic
    review of the mining sector that would include the low
    effective tax rates that mining companies paid,
    recommendations relating to the gold mining tax formula, the
    appropriateness and international comparability of the
    current mining investment allowances, and the consideration
    of special allowances for exploration and mining
    rehabilitation programs.  Possible tax measures to assist the
    small-scale mining sector would also be considered.

    ¶23. (U) Manuel recalled the exchange control amnesty
    announced in 2003.  He reported that the government had
    adjudicated 16,033 of 43,000 applications received --
    yielding a total of R826 million in tax revenue from newly
    declared income on foreign assets.  The Treasury estimated
    that the value of declared foreign assets would reach about
    R65 billion, yielding a total of R2.2 billion in additional
    annual tax revenue.

    Foreign Exchange Liberalization
    -------------------------------

    ¶24. (U) Manuel announced that, following discussions with
    SARB Governor Mboweni, the Treasury was proposing abolishing
    exchange control limits on new outward foreign direct
    investment by South African corporations.  He added that
    demonstrated benefit to South Africa would still be a
    criterion for SARB Exchange Control Department approval.  In
    addition, Manuel said that South African corporations would
    now be allowed to retain foreign dividends offshore, and
    transfer any dividends repatriated to South Africa at any
    time for any reason.  To position South Africa as a financial
    center for the rest of Africa, Manuel restated the
    government's February announcement that foreign companies,
    governments, and institutions would be able to list on South
    Africa's bond and securities exchanges.  Manuel said that in
    November, Aquarius Platinum (an Australian mining company)
    would be the first company to take a secondary listing in
    South Africa.  Manuel stated that all investment restrictions
    in such companies would be eliminated for South Africans.
    Explaining that the sequencing of reforms was critical to
    liberalizing exchange controls, Manuel added that the
    government's end goal was to abolish exchange controls
    altogether and put in place a set of prudent financial
    benchmarks that protected the institutional savings of
    working people.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶25. (SBU) Manuel's presentation covered all major issues of
    concern with clarity and purpose.  His recurring message was
    that since the economic fundamentals were good, job-creating
    growth could now be the central aim of economic policy.  The
    government's growth plan grants a new lease on life to South
    Africa's huge parastatals, as their role now will be to raise
    and manage the lion's share of public sector investment.
    Manuel is convinced that the impact on the national budget
    will be limited because considerable funding will be sourced
    from the country's deepening bond market at relatively low
    domestic interest rates (i.e., when compared to recent
    years).  Moreover, parastatals will be expected to contract
    or enter into joint ventures with private sector firms to
    accomplish their dual objectives of turning around their
    operations and building the nation's infrastructure.  The
    result will be greater public sector debt, but Manuel clearly
    believes that the markets can supply it.  He also believes
    that the resulting increase in government expenditures,
    especially on economic infrastructure, will kick start faster
    growth for the rest of the economy.  The onus, of course,
    will be on the parastatals, provinces, and municipalities to
    manage public sector investments well.  This may be the
    Achilles heel of the grand scheme as their record on this has
    been mixed.  Manuel's warnings about social welfare grants,
    recognition of the value to an economy that skilled
    immigrants bring, and criticism of BEE ownership requirements
    reflect his concern that strict adherence to achieving
    certain social goals as originally set out can be self
    defeating and perhaps hinder growth.
    FRAZER

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