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### Viewing cable 03SANAA818, SETTING THE STAGE FOR YEMEN,S PARLIAMENTARY

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
03SANAA818 | 2003-04-17 12:22 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Sanaa

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SANAA 000818

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV KDEM YM DEMOCRATIC REFORM DOMESTIC POLITICS
    SUBJECT: SETTING THE STAGE FOR YEMEN,S PARLIAMENTARY
    ELECTION

    REF: SANAA 706

    ¶1.  (U)  Summary:  The April 27 parliamentary elections
    should be the most competitive elections ever in Yemen.  This
    third parliamentary election in Yemen's emerging democracy
    presents a challenge and an opportunity for Yemen to move
    forward.  The potential for violence threatens to mar what
    observers believe will be a mostly free and fair election
    (ref).  Many issues will affect the election's outcome,
    including opposition party coordination or lack thereof, poor
    candidate selection, campaign issues, few women candidates
    and effective election observation.  End Summary.

    -------------------------------
    Most Competitive Elections Ever,
    Higher Potential for Violence
    -------------------------------

    ¶2.  (U)  Unlike in past elections, little evidence of
    "backroom" coordination between the GPC and Islah parties has
    emerged.  In 1997, the parties negotiated to create "safe"
    constituencies for each other, both because they were running
    in an informal coalition and because they wished to avoid
    violent clashes in high-tension areas.  The Yemeni Socialist
    Party (YSP), former ruling party of pre-unification People's
    Democratic Republic of Yemen, is running in this election,
    another major difference from 1997 when they boycotted.
    These two factors mean that the 2003 elections should be the
    most competitive in Yemen ever.  An informal count by
    knowledgeable observers indicates that approximately 120 of
    301 constituencies should be highly competitive "hot" races,
    primarily in Sanaa city and the Aden, Taiz and Hadramaut
    governorates.

    ¶3.  (U)  The increased competition and resultant tension
    causes many observers to fear increased violence during this
    election period.  Past elections have seen flare-ups of
    violence in random constituencies between political parties
    and between tribes.  In some instances, this violence was the
    result of warring tribes using the elections as "an excuse"
    to continue fighting that has gone on for decades.  In other
    instances, the fighting has flared up because of disputes
    between partisans.  The ROYG, political parties and NGOs have
    made significant efforts in recent months to discuss how to
    combat the possibility of violence, including the signing by
    22 political parties of a Code of Conduct on April 8
    (septel).  Observers fear, however, that these efforts may
    not be entirely effective as election day approaches even
    with an increased security presence throughout Yemen.

    ¶4.  (U)  Political observers are finding that the heavy
    competition makes predictions of election results difficult.
    A vast majority believe that the GPC will retain its majority
    with little difficulty, but many also see the likelihood of
    the Islah party significantly increasing its number of seats.

    ---------------------------------------
    Opposition Joint Meeting Parties (JMP)
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶5.  (U)  The Islah party, YSP and most small opposition
    parties comprise the JMP, which was formed in early 2002 to
    more effectively challenge the ruling GPC.  At several points
    in the last several months, JMP cohesion was threatened.  For
    example, the assassination of YSP leader Jarallah Omar at the
    Islah party conference December 28, 2002 could have caused
    the JMP to break up.  However, in a development that
    surprised many observers, the JMP has managed to remain
    largely coordinated.

    ¶6.  (U)  The JMP failed to negotiate which party,s
    candidates would run in which areas in all constituencies.
    Among the largest parties, the YSP gave way to Islah
    candidates in 130 constituencies while Islah gave way to YSP
    candidates in 30 constituencies.  Negotiations with the
    smaller parties in the coalition did not result in many
    agreements.  A majority of the JMP competitive constituencies
    are located in Aden, Hadramaut and Sanaa, areas where the YSP
    and Islah both believed themselves well able to win.

    --------------------------------------------- -
    Sheikh al-Ahmar -- "Joint" GPC-Islah Candidate
    --------------------------------------------- -

    ¶7.  (U)  Leader of the Islah party and recent Speaker of
    Parliament Sheikh al-Ahmar will run unofficially as a "joint"
    candidate for the GPC and Islah.  Negotiations between the
    GPC and Islah to orchestrate a switch in high positions
    between al-Ahmar and Shura Council Chairman Abdul Ghani
    failed.  These negotiations were fueled by the realization
    that if the GPC retained its majority, it would not make
    sense to re-elect an Islahi because the two parties no longer
    form an informal governing coalition.  At the same time,
    al-Ahmar,s profile and power necessitated a high position in
    the complicated balancing act that is Yemeni politics.  It
    appears that the ROYG and the GPC calculated that, in the
    absence of an agreement to switch, it was prudent to make the
    re-election of al-Ahmar politically feasible by announcing
    him as being supported by both parties.  Al-Ahmar is expected
    to win because the same token opposition candidate that runs
    against him regularly will be his only competition, setting
    the stage for al-Ahmar,s likely re-election as Speaker of
    Parliament.

    -----------------
    Candidate Choices
    -----------------

    ¶8.  (U)  Approximately 1,500 candidates are running in the
    301 constituencies, including political party and independent
    candidates.  This number is significantly lower from past
    elections.  Some observers have blamed the war in Iraq for
    the decrease, alleging that it reduced the number of
    candidates, lowered citizen interest and created
    opportunities for opposition parties to gain votes through
    anti-U.S./ROYG campaigning.    However, the decrease is more
    likely a result of opposition parties coordinating candidates
    and complicated measures by which independent candidates can
    register that decreased their number significantly.

    ¶9.  (U)  Political observers note that decentralization in
    candidate nomination by the GPC and Islah parties caused
    deterioration in "candidate quality" in some cases and
    lowered the chances for women being nominated.  Many
    candidates are believed to be illiterate and were nominated
    out of local or tribal power centers rather than from among
    the educated.

    ¶10.  (U)  Presidential son Ahmed Saleh, head of the Yemeni
    Special Forces, did not run again.  A well-traveled joke from
    the last parliament was that its numbers of Members were "300
      Ahmed," an indication of what many thought of his
    effectiveness as a Member.  In his constituency, the former
    Mayor of Sanaa is the GPC candidate, someone that many
    believe corrupt.

    -----------------------
    Active Campaign; Issues
    -----------------------

    ¶11.  (U)  Halfway through the 19-day official campaign
    period, the election campaign is in full swing.  Campaign
    posters are everywhere, political party newspapers publish
    almost daily and coverage on television and in newspapers is
    widespread.  Political party platforms are published in their
    entirety in official and opposition papers alike.  Concerns
    that the war in Iraq would greatly affect the election --
    including rumors for several months that the elections would
    be postponed should a war begin -- have dissipated with the
    fall of Saddam's regime.

    ¶12.  (U)  Campaign issues vary, with the most prominent being
    the economy, law and order, and corruption.  In many cases,
    parties seem to run less on specific issues than on candidate
    or leadership personalities and whether they are government
    or opposition.  The issues of U.S.-ROYG counterterrorism
    cooperation and, in relation, the war in Iraq, do not appear
    to be the huge issues that the ROYG and ruling GPC feared.
    Nevertheless, political observers believe that these issues,
    with an attendant flavor of an "American fight against
    Islam," will increase the Islah party vote.

    --------------------
    Few Women Candidates
    --------------------

    ¶13.  (U)  In what many consider the biggest disappointment of
    the run-up to the election, only 11 women are running for
    election.  They represent four political parties, including
    GPC and YSP, and include five independents.  Not only has
    Yemen allowed universal suffrage since 1993 (the first on the
    Arabian Peninsula), but both parliaments in 1993 and 1997 had
    women Members.  Some observers and political parties fear
    that no women will be elected this time and Yemen will
    backslide in its women,s representation.

    ¶14.  (U)  Several domestic and international NGOs and some
    political parties had advocated for either a formal or
    informal "set-aside" for women candidates to ensure at least
    10 percent representation.  Ideas included parties informally
    agreeing to run only women in 30 selected constituencies and
    a formal last-minute change in the election law to mandate
    "women,s constituencies."  Several problems caused the low
    number of women candidates, including a decision by the Islah
    that they would lose a large part of their base should they
    run women, decentralization in candidate selection that left
    central party bodies without the ability to place women
    candidates, increased competition that caused parties to be
    reluctant to run women they thought might be weaker
    candidates than men and a traditional male-dominated society.
     A formal resolution in the election law was not feasible
    before the election, and many are discussing the possibility
    of raising the issue after the election.

    --------------------
    Election Observation
    --------------------

    ¶15.  (U)  The National Democratic Institute for International
    Affairs (NDI) is fielding the only official international
    observation delegation.   30 delegates from 10 countries,
    including several in the Middle East, will observe.  More
    than 30,000 domestic election observers are registered as
    well, including between 6-10,000 NDI-trained observers.  The
    Embassy plans to informally observe the elections.  Details
    on observation septel.
    HULL

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