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### Viewing cable 04PRETORIA5407, SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 17,

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04PRETORIA5407 | 2004-12-17 07:36 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Pretoria

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 005407

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR AF/S/JDIFFILY; AF/EPS; EB/IFD/OMA
    USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/MAC/AME/OA/DIEMOND
    TREASURY FOR OAISA/BARBER/WALKER/JEWELL
    USTR FOR COLEMAN
    LONDON FOR GURNEY; PARIS FOR NEARY

    E.O. 12958:  N/A
    TAGS: ECON EINV EFIN ETRD BEXP KTDB PGOV SF
    SUBJECT:  SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER DECEMBER 17,
    2004 ISSUE

    ¶1.  Summary.  Each week, AMEmbassy Pretoria publishes an
    economic newsletter based on South African press reports.
    Comments and analysis do not necessarily reflect the
    opinion of the U.S. Government.  Topics of this week's
    newsletter are:

     -  Third Quarter Bulletin Released;
     -  AmCham Survey Shows Empowerment Risks;
     -  Electricity Regulator Limits Price Increase;
     -  New Micro Finance Fund Started;
     -  Fraudulent Grant Recipients Can Receive Indemnity Until
     March; and
     -  Employment and Earnings Continue Growing.
     End Summary.

    THIRD QUARTER BULLETIN RELEASED
    -------------------------------

    ¶2.  The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) released the
    third quarter 2004 Quarterly Bulletin, which gives a
    comprehensive picture of the economy by focusing on demand
    determinants of gross domestic product (GDP) as well as
    financial indicators.  From a demand perspective, the
    composition of GDP and economic growth indicate strong
    growth in the local economy.  In the third quarter, GDP
    increased by 5.6 percent (annualized, q/q), helped by
    strong growth in consumption and the export sector.  Gross
    domestic expenditures, which exclude the foreign trade
    sector, increased by 2.3 percent as household consumption
    and investment continues to show strong growth at 6.7 and
    2.4 percent, respectively.  Investment growth slowed
    substantially in the third quarter compared to 10.4 and
    5.5 percent growth in the first two quarters of 2004.  The
    deceleration in total fixed investment is largely
    attributable to transactions by South Africa Airlines, in
    which aircraft acquired on financial lease contracts
    during the first half of the year were changed into
    operational leases with a non-South African entity.  The
    aircraft had to be recorded as exports and negative
    capital formation in the third quarter after initially
    being recorded as imports and capital formation.  Private
    sector investment increased 13 percent in the third
    quarter, reflecting optimism as shown by recent business
    confidence indices.  Government consumption showed
    stagnant quarterly growth of 0.1 percent, due to large
    government purchases of ships in the second quarter.
    Exports and imports increased 13.9 and 0.7 percent
    respectively, explaining the much higher growth of GDP.
    Most analysts expect GDP to grow above 3.5 percent this
    year, with above 4 percent growth expected for 2005.
    Apart from expenditure data, the Quarterly Bulletin
    provides income, savings and inflation information.  The
    savings data was revised substantially, incorporating
    additional information from a wider variety of sources.
    Over the past three quarters, gross savings as a percent
    of GDP has increased, although household debt increased
    and savings to disposable income has declined, reflecting
    the rise in consumer spending.  South African savings was
    14.7 percent of GDP during the third quarter is
    substantially less than many of its peer countries
    (Malaysia at 42 percent, Thailand at 31 percent, Chile at
    27 percent and Singapore at 45 percent).  The ratio of
    household savings to disposable income has also declined
    from 1.2 in the first quarter 2004 to 0.9 in the third
    quarter.  Inflation expectations continue to remain within
    the targeted range of 3-6 percent for the next two years,
    even though unit labor costs increased for the third
    consecutive quarter.  Source:  Standard Bank QB Crux,
    Investec SARB Quarterly Update, December 10; SARB
    Quarterly Bulletin December 2004; Business Report,
    December 13.

    ¶3.  Comment.  Two weeks ago, Stats SA released revised and
    rebased GDP figures from the production side.  SARB
    provides GDP composition from the demand side, showing
    consumption growing faster than previously thought.
    Revised household consumption increased 6.1 and 6.3
    percent in the first and second quarters compared to
    previous growth of 4.9 and 4.3 percent, respectively.  At
    least part of this increased consumer spending was funded
    by credit as reflected by increasing household debt to
    disposable income.  End comment.

    AMCHAM SURVEY SHOWS EMPOWERMENT RISKS
    -------------------------------------

    ¶4.  A survey of US firms belonging to the American Chamber
    of Commerce in South Africa (AmCham) shows that 74 percent
    of US companies views selling equity as part of black
    empowerment strategy as a negative factor in their
    investment decisions in South Africa.  The survey also
    shows that 50 percent of US firms plan to invest more in
    South Africa next year, while 62 percent said the business
    environment was either good or excellent, up from 50
    percent last year.  Thirty-four percent of AmCham's 177
    members responded to the survey.  Trade and Industry
    Director General Lionel October said the survey reflected
    "a lack of understanding about the implementation of
    empowerment" and acknowledged that the government has to
    explain the empowerment strategy more clearly.  October
    also stated that if a foreign company has a policy not to
    sell shares in its overseas subsidiaries, the government
    would accommodate that company.  Source:  Business Day,
    December 14.

    ¶5.  Comment.  Last week, the Department of Trade and
    Industry released drafts of three codes of good practice
    providing guidelines on Black Economic Empowerment
    Framework, Equity Ownership and Management.   The Black
    Economic Empowerment Framework introduces a new generic
    scorecard recommending that companies achieve 25.1 percent
    BEE equity levels, 40 percent black management, 50 percent
    procurement from black-owned firms, and 50 percent
    equality in employment.  The Equity Ownership provides
    guidance on different types of ownership and voting rights
    and the Minister will include a Statement on equity
    ownership for multinationals.  A Statement is a formal
    clarifying principle within a Code.  Public comments on
    these codes will be accepted for the next 60 days.  It is
    not known when the Statement on equity ownership for
    multinationals will be released.  End comment.

    ELECTRICITY REGULATOR LIMITS PRICE INCREASE
    -------------------------------------------

    ¶6.  The National Electricity Regulator (NER) approved an
    average electricity price increase of 4.1 percent for
    2005, lower than the initial 6.4 percent increase it
    initially approved in October, effective January 1.  NER
    spokesman said one of the key determinants of the approved
    tariff increase was the fact that Eskom would be required
    to repay the large returns earned when Eskom sold more
    electricity than expected when the price increases of 8.5
    percent increases were approved.  In 2003, Eskom earned a
    profit of R3.5 billion ($463 million, using 7.56, the
    average exchange rate in 2003) on R32.8 billion ($4.34
    billion) in revenues.  Source:  Business Day, December 14.

    NEW MICRO FINANCE FUND STARTED
    ------------------------------

    ¶7.  The Department of Trade and Industry announced the
    launch of the South African Micro Finance Apex Fund, which
    will provide small loans to individuals and small
    businesses.  Loans up to R10,000 ($1,750, using 5.7 rands
    per dollar) are available through intermediaries as well
    as financing advice and support, working with cooperatives
    and savings groups.  The fund hopes to improve
    entrepreneurial and financial skills and experience so
    that small enterprises can begin to improve employment and
    income levels.  Source:  Business Day, December 13.

    FRAUDULENT GRANT RECIPIENTS CAN RECEIVE INDEMNITY UNTIL MARCH
    --------------------------------------------- ----------------

    ¶8.  People receiving social grants fraudulently have until
    the end of March to apply for indemnity or face possible
    imprisonment.  About 37,000 people are suspected to be
    enjoying state benefits illegally.  Examples include about
    1000 foster-care parents receiving grants for children
    older than the eligible age, and more than 10,000 others
    who are under investigation for receiving old age grants
    before the official retirement age.  "The home affairs
    department has also informed us that there are over 14,400
    cases of children who, according to the (department's)
    records, are indicated as deceased, but people continue to
    collect the child support grant," said Justice Department
    Director General Vusi Pikoli.  Social Development Minister
    Zola Skweyiya said untested information had recently
    revealed that about 50,500 government employees or
    beneficiaries of the government pension fund were also
    receiving social grants.   Government spends about R50
    billion on providing social security to more than 9
    million beneficiaries every year.  Source:  Business Day,
    December 14.
    EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS CONTINUE GROWING
    ----------------------------------------

    ¶9.  The September Survey of Employment and Earnings (SEE)
    shows the average earnings growth per employee in the
    formal non-agricultural business sector reached 5.4
    percent between the quarter ended September 2003 and
    September 2004 compared to 7.9 percent between the quarter
    ended June 2003 and June 2004.  Employment increased 3.7
    percent in September, showing an increase of 234,000 jobs
    compared to September 2003 and a gain of 112,000 over June
    2004's jobs.  June's survey showed a 2.5 percent increase
    in employment.  The gross earnings paid to employees
    during the quarter ended September 2004 amounted to 136.76
    billion rand, which is an annual increase of 9.3 percent
    compared with the June 2004 quarter's annual increase in
    gross earnings of 10.6 percent.  Since June 2004, the
    highest number of jobs created occurred in the personal
    services sector (66,000 new jobs), followed by wholesale
    and retail trade (15,000), manufacturing (14,000),
    construction (11,000) and the financial sector (7,000).
    Growth in consumption of services, motor vehicles,
    property and durable and non-durable goods have exceeded
    GDP growth over the past year.  Source:  I-Net Bridge,
    Standard Bank, SEE, December 14; Business Day, Business
    Report, December 15.

    ¶10.  Comment.  South Africa has three official ways of
    measuring employment statistics:  the population census,
    which surveys all households, completed every five years;
    the labor force survey of a sample of households published
    twice a year; and the Survey of Employment and Earnings,
    which is a sample of firms in the non-agricultural formal
    sector (those firms registered for value-added taxes) and
    published every quarter.  Firm-based surveys, like the
    SEE, generally do not keep up with the changing structure
    of employment without frequent sample revision.  For
    example, the growth of the information technology sector
    in the 1980s and 1990s was not included in the SEE sample
    until 2002.  The SEE has reported employment gains for the
    past two quarters, although some argue that the amount of
    jobs created comes short of halving the current
    unemployment rate of 27.8 percent by 2014.  Roughly
    500,000 additional jobs per year are needed to reach the
    government's goal.  End comment.

    FRAZER

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