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### Viewing cable 05PRETORIA4907, SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER December 16 2005

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05PRETORIA4907 | 2005-12-19 09:29 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Pretoria

`

    VZCZCXRO9561
    RR RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR
    DE RUEHSA #4907/01 3530929
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 190929Z DEC 05
    FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0517
    INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
    RUCPCIM/CIMS NTDB WASHDC
    RUCPDC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 004907

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR AF/S/MTABLER-STONE; AF/EPS; EB/IFD/OMA
    USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/MAC/AME/OA/DIEMOND
    TREASURY FOR OAISA/RALYEA/CUSHMAN
    USTR FOR COLEMAN

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EINV EFIN ETRD BEXP KTDB PGOV SF
    SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER December 16 2005
     ISSUE

     ¶1. Summary.  Each week, Embassy Pretoria publishes an
     economic newsletter based on South African press reports.
     Comments and analysis do not necessarily reflect the
     opinion of the U.S. Government.  Topics of this week's
     newsletter are:

     -  November Consumer Inflation Comes in at Five-Month Low;
     -  Producer Prices Higher than Expected;
     -  Jobs Increase by 1.4%;
     -  Third Quarter Domestic Demand Strong;
     -  Survey Assesses SA Business Climate; and
     -  Fuel Shortages;
     End Summary.

     November Consumer Inflation Comes in at Five-Month Low
     --------------------------------------------- ---------

     ¶2.  Consumer inflation slowed for the third consecutive
     month, to its lowest level in five months, as falling
     petrol prices put downward pressure on inflation.
     According to Statistics SA (StatsSA), CPIX (consumer price
     index excluding mortgage costs) slowed to 3.7% y/y,
     compared with 4.4% in October.  Overall consumer prices
     (CPI) increased 3.4%, compared to 4% in October.  Both
     goods and services inflation slowed in November, and
     second-round inflationary pressures from higher oil prices
     were still not evident in the inflation numbers.  Services
     inflation continued to moderate, falling to 5% y/y, from
     5.2% in October.  In June, services inflation reached
     6.1%.  November goods price inflation eased to 3.1%, from
     4.1% the previous month.  The 0.1% month on month decline
     in goods prices was driven mainly by falling transport
     costs.  The transport component declined 2% month on month
     last month, bringing y/y growth to 6%.  Vehicle running
     costs, which capture movements in fuel prices, declined
     3.3% during the month.  The food component of the CPIX
     rose 0.8%, bringing y/y growth to 2%.  The consumer price
     index is expected to end 2005 at about 4%, and average
     4.5% in 2006.  Administrative prices, those controlled and
     monitored by government, slowed to 7.5% y/y, from 10% in
     October.  Source:  Business Day, December 15.

     ¶3.  Comment.  For 27 consecutive months, consumer
     inflation has remained within the South African Reserve
     Bank's (SARB) targets of 3% and 6%.  In recent months
     inflation expectations have reached close to 6% as
     international crude oil prices rose to record highs,
     prompting South African monetary authorities to keep
     interest rates unchanged.  Inflation expectations are
     likely to moderate in coming months, barring any oil-price
     shocks.  The rand's performance will be one of the key
     factors in the outlook for inflation, and interest rates,
     with the relatively strong rand mitigating the effect of
     higher oil prices on the domestic economy.  However, risks
     to the inflation outlook remain, mainly in the form of
     rising food prices, rising credit demand, and a rapidly
     changing currency.  The SARB's Quarterly Bulletin showed
     that the ratio of the current account to gross domestic
     product increased to 4.7% in the third quarter 2005, up
     from 3.7% in the previous quarter, although the deficit
     was financed by incoming capital flows.  End comment.

     Producer Prices Higher than Expected
     ------------------------------------

     ¶4.  November's producer price inflation rose by 4.5% y/y,
     higher than the market's expectation of a 4.1% increase
     and October's producer price inflation of 4.2%.  The main
     sources of producer price inflation by month came from
     agricultural products rising 3.8% m/m, electrical
     machinery increasing 2.8% m/m, mining and quarrying rising
     1.8% m/m and manufactured food rising 1% on a monthly
     basis.  November's prices show a moderating impact of
     lower oil prices, with petroleum prices falling by 2.9%
     m/m.  However, recent December oil price increases along
     with food prices pose future inflationary risks.  On a
     monthly basis, imported producer prices increased less
     than domestic in November, with producer inflation being
     restrained by a relatively strong rand; domestic firms'
     inability to increase prices due to excess production
     capacity; low global inflation and increased competition
     from low cost global manufacturing firms.  Source:
     Standard Bank PPI Alert and Investec PPI Update, December
     ¶15.

    PRETORIA 00004907  002 OF 003

     Jobs Increase by 1.4%
     ---------------------

     ¶5.  South Africa's formal, non-agricultural employment
     grew by 99,000 jobs in the third quarter 2005, increasing
     by 1.4%, according to the Quarterly Employment Statistics
     released by Statistics SA.  Employment in 2005 has
     increased steadily in the second and third quarter, after
     dropping in the first quarter.  During the first quarter,
     jobs dropped by 152,000, or 2.1%; while in the second
     quarter, the number of people employed rose 1.9%.  During
     the third quarter, no sector showed job losses.  For the
     third quarter 2005, the number of jobs created in
     transport, storage and communication rose 4.1% (13,000
     jobs) to 333,000.  The construction industry reported a
     quarterly increase of 11,000 employees, bringing the total
     number of people it employs to 443,000.  The economy's
     second-largest sector, manufacturing, added 13,000
     employees, an increase of 1.1% from the second quarter.
     Mining and quarrying was the only sector that did not add
     any jobs in the third quarter.  Wholesale and retail
     trade, repair of motor vehicles, and hotels and
     restaurants reported a quarterly increase of 24,000
     employees, or 1.7%.  A quarterly increase of 16,000 was
     recorded in the financial intermediation, insurance, real
     estate and business services industry (1.1%), while the
     community, social and personal services industry reported
     a quarterly increase of 21,000 employees (1.2%).  Source:
     Business Day, December 14.

     ¶6.  Comment.  The quarterly employment survey replaced the
     Survey of Employment and Earnings in June 2005.  The
     statistics are derived from a survey of about 24,500
     businesses registered to pay income tax, excluding those
     in agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing.  The
     biannual Labor Force Survey includes all sectors.  End
     comment.

     Third Quarter Domestic Demand Strong
     ------------------------------------

     ¶7.  Gross domestic expenditure (GDE) increased 6.2%
     (seasonally adjusted and annualized) compared with the
     second quarter increase of 0%, according to the South
     African Reserve Bank's (SARB) December Quarterly Bulletin.
     Household debt rose to 63.5% of disposable income from 61%
     in the second quarter.  SARB did not view the high level
     of debt as problematic since the ratio of household debt
     service payments to disposable income was 6.75%, only half
     of its record high levels during 1998, when there were
     considerable capital shortages.  The sharp growth in GDE
     was due to a broad-based growth in gross fixed capital
     formation, increasing 7.1% compared to the second quarter
     growth of 4.4%.  Household consumption spending eased to
     6.1%, compared to second quarter growth of 6.7%, primarily
     due to slowing demand for durable goods.  Growth in South
     Africa's unit labor costs accelerated to 4.5% in the
     second quarter of 2005 compared to first quarter's rise of
     3.8%.  Both quarterly increases are within the country's
     3%-6% inflation target range.  Source:  Investec SARB
     Quarterly Bulletin Update and Reuters, December 9.

     Survey Assesses SA Business Climate
     -----------------------------------

     ¶8.  A joint South African government and World Bank survey
     assessed the South African investment climate, enumerating
     both major challenges and positive trends towards
     achieving 6% long-run economic growth.  Rigid labor laws,
     little training provided by local firms, skills shortages,
     and HIV/AIDS were cited as concerns by 800 local
     businesses.  While 77% of Brazil's, 80% of Poland's, 69%
     of China's and 55% of India's skilled labor force received
     company training, only 45% of South Africa's skilled
     workers received training.  The survey found that local
     business did not find costs of regulation nor corporate
     income taxes too high.  South African senior managers
     spent 10% of their time dealing with regulations, compared
     to 25% spent in China.  Direct losses due to crime and
     security costs were higher in South Africa, although few
     reported paying bribes and the legal system was rated
     high.  Low energy costs and access to finance were also
     among the positive trends.  HIV/AIDS was listed as a

    PRETORIA 00004907  003 OF 003

     medium term concern; mainly related to uncertainty about
     its effect on productivity, market size, profitability and
     absenteeism.  The report suggested that the lack of
     foreign investors might be due to the way in which black
     empowerment transactions are financed, using equity
     transfers and not creating new capital.  Source:  Business
     Day, December 14.

     Fuel Shortages
     --------------

     ¶9.  Fuel shortages were reported in the Western Cape and
     Gauteng provinces, starting December 10 and may extend to
     January 2006, as a result of lead being phased out as of
     January 1, 2006.  Colin McClelland, the Director of the
     South African Petroleum Industry Association, cited
     unexpected reductions in refining production as reasons
     for shortages in fuel.  In the Western Cape, maintenance
     shut-downs coinciding with adjustments to increase
     production of unleaded gasoline caused shortages.  In
     addition, airports in Cape Town and George were severely
     affected when the jet fuel delivered failed safety tests.
     Recent statements by the Department of Minerals and Energy
     Minister Lindiwe Hendricks indicated that the government
     gave oil companies enough notice of the change in
     regulations and would consider possible increased
     regulation in the interests of public concern.  Source:
     Sunday Times, December 11; Pretoria News, December 12;
     Business Day, December 15.

     TEITELBAUM

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