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### Viewing cable 03ISTANBUL1803, BANKING SECTOR PREPARES FOR A "BRAVE NEW WORLD"

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
03ISTANBUL1803 | 2003-12-05 14:45 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Istanbul

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 001803

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    STATE FOR E, EUR AND EB
    TREASURY FOR OASIA - JLEICHTER, MMILLS AND GRAO
    NSC FOR MBRYZA AND TMCKIBBEN

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EFIN PREL TU
    SUBJECT: BANKING SECTOR PREPARES FOR A "BRAVE NEW WORLD"

    ¶1. (SBU)  Summary: The strong profits reported by Turkish
    banks in 2003's third quarter show that the sector is
    gradually recovering from the effects of the 2001 crisis,
    according to industry analysts in Istanbul.  They note,
    however, that much of the recent good news is the result of
    the windfall profits that banks have enjoyed as a result of
    declining interest rates, which have raised the value of
    their Treasury securities.  Banks, they warn, have yet to
    show that they will be able to prosper in the new environment
    that will result if Turkey is able to stay the course and
    achieve its goal of sustainable low inflation and interest
    rates.  Analysts forsee a further wave of consolidation in
    the sector, arguing that banking restructuring is only "half
    complete."  End Summary.

    ¶2. (SBU) A positive quarter:  Most major Turkish banks easily
    beat analysts' expectations in their recently announced
    third-quarter results.  Industry leader Akbank led the way
    with third quarter earnings of USD 376 million, bringing its
    nine month profit to USD 722 million, well above the market
    consensus of USD 572 million.  Two of Turkey's other big four
    banks, Garanti and Yapi Kredi, also exceeded expectations,
    though more modestly, while Isbank slightly undershot
    analysts' expectations, largely due to higher loss provisions
    than analysts had expected.

    ¶3. (SBU) Treasury windfall: Closer examination of bank
    balance sheets, however, shows that  the bulk of the profits
    stemmed from windfall profits on the banks' holdings of
    Treasury bonds, which comprise from one-third to one-half of
    major banks' assets.  Akbank, for example, holds nearly USD
    9.5 billion in government securities, composed of nearly 5.5
    billion in trading securities, 3.5 billion in securities
    available for sale, and only USD 450 million in securities
    held to maturity.  The latter figure is down significantly
    from its 2001 level of nearly USD 4.5 billion, reflecting the
    shift banks have made from holding securities to actively
    trading them in the secondary market.  The trend is evident
    at other banks as well, though less dramatically, given that
    Akbank leads the industry with 50 percent of its assets in
    government paper.  Garanti, for instance, has Treasury
    holdings of USD 5.8 billion (out of total assets of 14.2
    billion), but most of these are earmarked to be held to
    maturity, and a smaller percentage (28 percent) are
    denominated in Turkish lira.  The continuing bias of Turkish
    banks towards government paper was evident in recently
    published comments by the General Manager of Vakifbank.
    Asked to predict the bank's year-end profits, he said they
    would depend on future Central bank rate cuts, given that
    bank profitability stems from its government securities
    portfolio.

    ¶4. (SBU) Loan expansion: Industry experts like Huseyin Imece
    at Yapi Kredi and Kubilay Cinemre at Garanti Bank stress that
    the banks' strong performance in the first part of the year
    is deceiving, in that the industry as a whole is not yet at a
    point where it achieves a sustainable operation from its core
    operations.  Of Turkey's big four, only Yapi Kredi currently
    has a loan portfolio that eclipses its security portfolio.
    Other banks are seeking to expand market share, however.
    Akbank's market share in retail loans and SME's almost
    doubled in the first nine months of 2003, but the bank's
    total loan portfolio is still only half the size of its
    security portfolio, at USD 4.85 billion.  Garanti's market
    share in retail loans increased from 18 to 25 percent, while
    the bank's overall loan portfolio expanded by 6 percent to
    USD 4.4 billion, or 31 percent of assets.  Cinemre stressed,
    however, that banks cannot be profitable simply on the basis
    of these products alone: new instruments are needed, such as
    a long-term mortgage system.

    ¶5. (SBU) Restructuring: Ercan Kumcu, who in addition to
    writing regularly on economic topics in "Hurriyet" newspaper,
    also heads Tekfenbank, one of the industry's smallest
    players, told us recently that while important progress has
    been registered in recent years in restructuring the sector,
    the process is still only half complete.  Beyond the issue of
    weak banks in the system that may have to be taken over,
    there are also structural problems, stemming both from high
    intermediation costs as a result of excessive government
    taxes, and banks' own propensity to "overbranch."  (Note: The
    IMF and World Bank are working with the GOT to find ways to
    bring down intermediation costs, and the GOT has agreed to a
    modest reduction in taxation on bank transactions beginning
    in 2004.  But the GOT is constrained by the need for revenue
    to meet its fiscal targets.  End Note.)  According to Kumcu,
    further consolidation in the sector is essential, as is
    additional foreign investment.  With foreign banks currently
    only holding a small fraction of the market, there is
    significant room for them to expand.

    ¶6. (SBU) Other clouds: Kubilay warned of additional clouds on
    the horizon, however, as a result of the new draft banking
    law currently being debated in parliament.  As a reaction to
    the wave of bank failures in the 2001 crisis and the recent
    IMAR bank scandal (newspaper headlines recently trumpeted
    Justice Minister Celik's outrage at finding himself sharing a
    VIP waiting lounge with the former head of a failed Turkish
    bank, which had required the injection of hundreds of
    millions of dollars of government funds), the draft provides
    stiff penalties for bankers in the event of bankruptcy as a
    result of high losses.  The law, Kubilay noted, would permit
    seizure of the personal assets of bankers and their families
    in such instances.  Inevitably, he argued, such regulations
    would have a chilling effect on the sector and dissuade
    bankers from assuming any risk.  The Banker's Association has
    reportedly been urging the GOT not to make this feature of
    the law quite so draconian.  IMF staff reportedly agree that
    it is too draconian, but attach greater priority to the
    portions of the draft legislation relating to the bank
    regulatory and deposit insurance agencies.
    ARNETT

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