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### Viewing cable 04BOGOTA1, CONGRESS PASSES FISCAL REFORM, FOR REAL THIS TIME

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04BOGOTA1 | 2004-01-02 14:19 | 2011-04-16 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Bogota

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    id: 13012
    date: 1/2/2004 14:19
    refid: 04BOGOTA1
    origin: Embassy Bogota
    classification: UNCLASSIFIED
    destination: 04BOGOTA11987
    header:
    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

    ----------------- header ends ----------------

    UNCLAS BOGOTA 000001

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EFIN ECON CO PGOV
    SUBJECT: CONGRESS PASSES FISCAL REFORM, FOR REAL THIS TIME

    REF: BOGOTA 11987

    ¶1. (SBU)  The Uribe Administration's fiscal reform bill,
    which passed on December 20 but was in danger of being
    overturned by the courts on technical grounds (reftel). The
    bill was corrected and re-passed in special session December
    ¶29.
    WOOD

    =======================CABLE ENDS============================

    id: 13038
    date: 1/5/2004 20:43
    refid: 04BOGOTA66
    origin: Embassy Bogota
    classification: UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
    destination:
    header:
    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

    ----------------- header ends ----------------

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 BOGOTA 000066

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    USDOC FOR 4331/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/ACBD/JANGLIN
    STATE PLEASE PASS TO USTR/BHARMAN
    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EFIN ECON CO PGOV
    SUBJECT: 2003 REVIEW OF THE COLOMBIAN ECONOMY

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Colombian economy performed well during
    President Alvaro Uribe's first year in office and will end
    2003 on a positive note.  A significant increase in exports
    to the United States helped stabilize an economy constrained
    by the internal armed conflict and challenged by a
    significant decrease in trade with Venezuela, the country's
    second largest trading partner.  GOC improvements in security
    and restructuring of inefficient parastatals also helped keep
    the economy on track, despite the failure of President
    Uribe's reform referendum.  Various indicators point to a
    healthy economy in 2004, provided there is sustained private
    investment and household consumption.  However, alarming
    social indicators, lingering fiscal problems, and a lack of
    needed reforms may jeopardize future economic growth and
    stability.  End summary.

    -------------------------------
    The Colombian Economic Recovery
    -------------------------------

    ¶2. (U) The Uribe administration is committed to attracting
    foreign investment by improving the security environment and
    opening Colombia's economy through liberal trade regimes and
    free trade agreements.  Uribe's first-year performance,
    coupled with the prospects of negotiating for freer trade
    with the United States, has improved business and consumer
    confidence.  The general reaction has been so favorable that
    the first three quarters of 2003, which exhibited broad-based
    growth, were some of the most stable in Colombia's history.
    For example, according to the National Administrative
    Department of Statistics (DANE), mining and fuels rose 12.4
    percent year-on-year (led by Colombia's two largest exports,
    oil and coal), and construction grew 9.8 percent.  Other
    sectors such as manufacturing, trade and tourism, transport,
    communication, and agriculture grew approximately 4.5 percent
    year-on-year.  During the first half of 2003, the economy
    grew 2.9 percent compared with 1.1 percent growth for the
    same period last year.  The third trimester ended on a high
    note, registering approximately 4.17 percent growth.  The GOC
    expects 3.4 percent growth overall for 2003, and projects
    that increases of 8.5 percent in private investments and 3.2
    percent in household consumption will yield 3.3 percent
    growth for 2004.

    ¶3. (U) Consumer spending, imports of capital goods, and home
    purchases continue to fuel the economy.  Several other
    economic indicators point to improvement:

    -- According to the National Federation of Businessmen
    (FENALCO), 43 percent of retailers reported an increase in
    sales.  The Banking Association (ASOBANCARIA)  reported that
    credit card sales and advances have risen at a rate of more
    than 20 percent, as have consumer loans in general.  The
    National Association of Industrialists' (ANDI) most recent
    business poll indicated that the industrial sector recorded
    growth of 2.7 percent in output and sales from January to
    November compared to the same period last year.

    -- Domestic spending, which affects both demand for credit
    and the repayment capacity of non-tradable sectors, has
    posted significant increases dating back to the second
    quarter of last year.

    -- The GOC raised the minimum wage 7.8 percent to USD 127 per
    month -- the largest real increase in purchasing power of the
    last 12 years.  Approximately four million Colombians, or ten
    percent of the population, earn minimum wage.

    -- According to the Colombian Savings and Housing Institute
    (ICAV), foreclosures are down and bank inventories are
    getting smaller.

    -- The Agriculture Ministry and the Association of Colombian
    Farmers (SAC) predict that this year agricultural production
    will grow 5 percent, an estimate based on 147,000 new
    hectares that were planted this year, with palm oil, corn,
    cacao, rubber, and rice leading the way.  The most recent
    National Agricultural Poll revealed that agriculture is now
    the third most important sector of the economy, representing
    14.2 percent of the GDP.  (Note: SAC reports that although
    the agricultural sector has been growing during this year, it
    is not profitable.  Despite higher prices and increased crop
    cultivation for the first semester of the year, production
    costs have increased significantly as a result of the
    increased prices of fuel and fertilizers.  End note.)

    -- Employment is up.  The DANE reported that the overall
    unemployment rate stands at 14.3 percent. Through the third
    quarter of this year approximately 900,000 new jobs were
    created, representing an increase of 5.7 percent compared to
    the same period in 2002.
    -- For the period between January and September 2003, foreign
    direct investment (FDI) from all countries totaled USD 1.5
    billion.  The stock of U.S. FDI in Colombia through September
    2003 amounted to USD 8 billion.

    --------------------------------------------
    Exports, Boosted by ATPDEA, Have Led the Way
    --------------------------------------------

    ¶4. (U) Total Colombian exports were eight percent higher than
    last year, despite the halt in exports to Venezuela,
    Colombia's second-largest export market.  Exports to the
    United States have more than made up the difference.  The
    U.S. market receives 44 percent of all Colombian exports,
    more than two-thirds of which enter tariff-free.  During
    2003, total Colombian exports to the United States were USD
    5.4 billion.  Colombia exported USD 2.4 billion under the
    Andean Trade Preferences and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA).
    Considering just textiles, more than USD 158 million in
    exports benefited under ATPDEA in 2003, an improvement of 48
    percent over the previous year.

    ---------------------------
    Increased Security Pays Off
    ---------------------------

    ¶5. (U) Uribe's proactive security strategy has delivered
    important results: illegal armed groups have been weakened,
    and terrorist attacks and overall violence have declined.
    These improvements have facilitated increased production.
    Businesses reported in a survey conducted by the Colombian
    Association of Small Industries (ACOPI) that "lack of
    security" decreased from representing 13 percent of their
    concerns in 2002 to 5.4 percent in 2003.  This improvement
    has helped businesses to increase use of installed capacity
    to 74.6 percent.

    ¶6. (U) Drummond Coal Company is an example of a firm that has
    benefited from improved security: in its 12 years in
    Colombia, the company has been successful in reducing attacks
    on its infrastructure and in broadening local support for its
    extractive operations.  According to Drummond's local
    President, Augusto Jimenez, future plans include investing
    approximately USD 1.5 billion over the next five years to
    develop new coal projects, creating almost 7,000 new jobs,
    and exporting more than 30 million tons of coal.

    ¶7. (U) Road traffic has also risen as a result of improved
    security.  Alicia Naranjo, Director of the National Roads
    Institute (INVIAS), reported that overall vehicular traffic
    increased 7.3 percent.  The increase in Colombians flocking
    to rural areas during holidays and vacations has stimulated
    new sectors of commerce in regions previously neglected.

    --------------------------------------------- --
    Restructuring Inefficient Parastatals Helps Too
    --------------------------------------------- --

    ¶8. (U) President Uribe also undertook a major effort to cut
    overall government expenditures and restructure inefficient
    parastatal entities, which were operating at unsustainable
    levels and putting significant strain on the economy.  The
    State Petroleum Company (Ecopetrol), Telecom, and the Social
    Security Institute (ISS) were the largest entities affected.
    In an effort to salvage the entities, thousands of unneeded
    employees collecting inflated salaries and benefits were laid
    off.  The enterprises are now compelled to be more efficient
    or destined to disappear in competition with the private
    sector.  Colombian unions responded with strikes, but
    received scant public support.  The GOC estimated it will
    save over USD 9.2 billion, and believes that the changes have
    brought about viability and governability.

    -- Ecopetrol: Through decree 1760, the GOC converted
    Ecopetrol, which remains a government-owned enterprise, into
    a corporation that will handle field operations, and created
    the National Hydrocarbons Agency, which will set petroleum
    policy and handle royalties from new contracts.  The
    restructuring did not result in any significant layoffs,
    changes in work contracts or the collective bargaining
    process.  The "new" Ecopetrol allows employees to become
    shareholders, who can then appoint a board of directors
    tasked with increasing accountability and fighting
    corruption.

    -- Telecom: Telecom was liquidated after operating at
    unsustainable losses for several years.  This decision
    resulted in the firing of 5,260 Telecom employees and 1,651
    employees from associated telecommunications enterprises.
    The GOC created a new State-owned institution, Colombia
    Telecomunicaciones, which permits the State to continue
    providing service throughout the country, particularly in 750
    areas where Telecom will be the sole provider.

    -- Social Security: Presidential decree 1750 will split the
    ISS, the largest government enterprise, into one insurer and
    seven State Social Enterprises (ESE).  The new ESEs, which
    will be administratively autonomous with their own budgets,
    will provide health services while the ISS will manage
    pensions, worker's compensation, and social security.
    Uribe's reform is long overdue, given that ISS is fast
    exhausting its reserves, forcing the government to come up
    with USD 596 million (1.7 trillion Colombian pesos) to pay
    for benefits.

    -----------------------------
    As Does Sound Monetary Policy
    -----------------------------

    ¶9. (U) The GOC strategy of keeping interest rates low and
    maintaining a competitive exchange rate has spurred economic
    recovery.  In the first semester of 2003, interest rates
    remained low, allowing for recovery of credit.  Furthermore,
    in response to inflationary pressures, the Central Bank
    increased intervention rates twice, and held two actions of
    international reserves for USD 200 million each.  As a
    result, interest rates have risen slightly, and foreign
    exchange rates have stabilized.  The 2003 target rate for
    inflation is 6 percent, although inflation stood at 6.5
    percent as of December 2003.  The 2004 target rate is 5.5
    percent.

    ¶10. (U) Near-term fiscal finances are under control.  The
    consolidated public sector deficits in 2003 and 2004 should
    be just slightly above the 2.8 and 2.5 percent of GDP deficit
    targets.  The GOC has offset the shortfall resulting from the
    referendum's defeat by raising taxes, reallocating transfers
    to regional governments, and by cutting investment spending.

    -------------------------------------
    Moving on After the Referendum Defeat
    -------------------------------------

    ¶11. (SBU) The GOC promoted a referendum to reform
    constitutional norms that have impeded important spending
    cuts.  Although voter turnout was just short of the 25
    percent threshold required for approval, voters
    overwhelmingly supported the reform agenda.  The referendum's
    failure does not appear to have hurt private confidence,
    which remains strong due to important gains on the security
    front.  The popularity of President Uribe remains in the high
    70s.

    ¶12. (U) In order to make up for the loss of several
    cost-cutting measures in the referendum, the Uribe
    administration introduced new economic austerity legislation
    that faced opposition in Congress.  Changes to the VAT and
    income tax regimes, which were at the heart of Uribe's tax
    reform proposal, were severely watered-down.  The tax bill,
    which passed in an extraordinary congressional session,
    provides USD 817 million, but leaves a USD 286 million gap to
    be bridged by spending cuts.  Measures include taxes on
    wealth, personal income, financial transactions, anti-evasion
    policies, and an expansion of the tax base.

    ¶13. (U) The GOC has loan commitments from international
    financial institutions (IFIs) of USD 7.2 billion for the
    2004-2005 period, including USD 2 billion in contingent
    credit from the IMF.  Many of these loans require continued
    structural reforms, further strengthening the link between
    the Uribe administration's ability to carry out reform and a
    healthy economy.  Pending reforms include a reform to the
    budget code, a third-generation reform to social security,
    and second-generation reform to inter-governmental
    (territorial) transfer arrangements.

    -----------------------------------
    There is Still Room for Improvement
    -----------------------------------

    ¶14. (SBU) The National Council for Economic and Social Policy
    (CONPES) reported that economic growth for 2004 would rest on
    sectors such as construction, industry, transportation, and
    finance.  Although the economic environment is generally
    positive, Uribe still faces considerable challenges.

    ¶15. (SBU) The gaping budget shortfall is the most pressing.
    Many Colombians have spoken out against the reform efforts.
    On the one hand, critics feel that legislation passed so far
    is only a temporary bandage masking the need for substantial
    reform.  On the other hand, some in the business community
    expressed fear that a cascade of new taxes and other fiscal
    belt-tightening could adversely affect consumption and
    investment and undermine the nascent economic recovery.  The
    GOC has proposed a USD 28 billion budget for 2004.  Due to
    the fiscal crisis, public spending will have little influence
    on jump starting the economy.  The GOC may use a modest
    amount of reserves for liability management operations in
    2004, which, at the margin, could support bond prices.

    ¶16. (SBU) Debt continues to be a problem.  Comptroller
    General Antonio Hernandez stated in a report to congress that
    the GOC's debt level compromises the economy's external
    sustainability.  Worse yet, projections to 2006 show a more
    marked vulnerability.  Hernandez predicted a balance of
    payments crisis in the future unless the government takes
    corrective action.  He reported the non-financial public
    sector's net debt last year stood at 51.5 percent of GDP (USD
    39 billion), or 7.5 percent higher than 2002.  Foreign debt
    accounts for 48.2 percent of this total.  (Note: Analysts who
    evaluate the actual cost of foreign debt suggest that the
    government should resort to borrowing from multinational
    banks to a greater extent and start minimizing costly
    financing avenues such as issuance of foreign bonds.
    Increasing reliance on the latter has led to the adoption of
    new ways to finance infrastructure projects -- concessions,
    joint venture contracts, and power purchasing agreements --
    that have become financially onerous for the nation.  End
    note.)

    ¶17. (SBU) Social indicators continue to alarm.  Faster
    population growth and a devalued peso contributed to a fall
    in the dollar value of per capita GDP from USD 2,110 in 2001
    to USD 1,852 in 2003.  The percentage of the population
    living in poverty remains at 60 percent, extreme poverty
    exceeds 35 percent, and the underemployed represent 34
    percent of the labor force.  Though unemployment has declined
    in the past two years, it remains relatively high and is one
    of the factors weighing on domestic sentiment.  The plight of
    1.5 million jobless Colombians in the country's 13 largest
    metropolitan areas is dramatic.  This worries Uribe as well
    as private sector leaders, who insist on the urgent need to
    adopt "shock" measures to deal with unemployment.

    -------------------
    Outlook for 2004...
    -------------------
    ¶18. (SBU) Comment: The outlook for the near future is
    promising, but some key questions must be answered if
    economic growth at relatively high levels is to be sustained:
    -- Can the GOC stem the growth of the international debt?
    The corollary question of whether the GOC can tame its fiscal
    deficit must also be answered affirmatively.

    -- Can the fiscal deficit be brought under control in what is
    effectively a wartime budget without reducing security or
    social expenditures below politically acceptable minimums?

    -- Will Colombia's export prices hold and will the U.S.
    economy continue to be a strong market for Colombian exports?

    -- Will the opposition to Uribe continue to support sound
    economic policy for the latter part of his term?

    If the answers to the above questions are affirmative,
    Colombia's near and medium-term prospects are bright.  End
    comment.
    WOOD

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