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### Viewing cable 05PRETORIA658, SOUTH AFRICA'S TRADE WITH CHINA

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05PRETORIA658 | 2005-02-12 09:08 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Pretoria

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 000658

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR AF/S; AF/EPS; EB/TPP/MTA
    USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/IEP/ANESA/OA/JDIEMOND
    COMMERCE ALSO FOR HVINEYARD
    TREASURY FOR BRESNICK
    DEPT PASS USTR FOR PCOLEMAN

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ETRD KTEX ECON SF USTR
    SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA'S TRADE WITH CHINA

    ¶1.   Summary.  A  report  by  a  South  African  bank  group
    describes  the  impact of China's growing  importance  as  a
    trade  partner  with  South Africa, particularly  since  its
    accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in  December
    ¶2001.  Trade between South Africa and China has been booming
    since  the  late  1990s and is likely to  expand  even  more
    rapidly over the next decade. China is ranked South Africa's
    fifth  largest trading partner. In 2003, imports from  China
    accounted  for  6.5%  of total South African  imports  while
    exports  to  China  accounted for  2.4%  of  total  exports.
    Despite the rapid growth in South Africa-China trade,  South
    Africa's  two largest trade partners, Germany and  the  U.S.
    respectively, represent more than twice the value  of  China
    total trade.  End summary.

    ¶2.   This  cable reports on South Africa's trade with  China
    and uses an Amalgamated Banks of South Africa Limited (ABSA)
    publication  on  South African foreign  trade  as  the  main
    source  document.  According to the ABSA publication,  China
    has  become a force to be reckoned with in the international
    trade  arena, particularly since its accession to the  World
    Trade  Organization (WTO) in December 2001. China is already
    the  world's second largest economy, in terms of  purchasing
    power  parity,  and  the  ABSA  publication  expects  it  to
    displace the United States as the biggest economy within two
    or three decades.  The World Trade Organization's 2004 World
    Trade  Report states that between 2000 and 2003,  China  was
    the  only country which continued to record a sharp increase
    in  both  export  and  import ratios,  reflecting  both  the
    increased  openness of the Chinese economy and its  role  in
    sustaining  the global trade expansion over the  last  three
    years. At current growth rates of close to 10% per annum and
    an  investment/GDP ratio of nearly 50%, concerns are growing
    about  a capacity overhang in and overheating of the Chinese
    economy.  There  are therefore reasons to believe  that  the
    current  super  high  growth rates will moderate,  but  that
    relatively  high growth rates will most likely be  sustained
    for another decade or more.

    ¶3.   According  to  the  ABSA publication,  changes  in  the
    composition  of  Chinese exports have been transforming  the
    country  from  a  low-tech, low-value-added  exporter  to  a
    higher   value-added   exporter,   which   holds   important
    implications  for all countries that have trade  links  with
    China. The ABSA publication further states that whilst  many
    South African manufacturers may view the "red dragon"  as  a
    threat,  the  opportunities that China  presents  for  South
    African  exporters should not be underestimated. The Chinese
    market,  comprising more than 1.3 billion people,  is  still
    largely   untapped   and   could   provide   efficient   and
    internationally  competitive South  African  exporters  with
    very real growth opportunities. The ABSA report also focuses
    on how the Chinese presence has also become a reality on the
    South African domestic front. Trade between South Africa and
    China  has been booming since the late 1990s and the  report
    expects  an  even more rapid expansion over the next  decade
    amidst  talks of establishing a free trade agreement between
    the two countries.

    ¶4.   South  African Revenue Service (SARS) trade data  shows
    that  in  2003 China was ranked South Africa's fifth largest
    trading partner, moving up eight positions over the past six
    years.  Total  merchandise trade  with  China  totaled  R5.3
    billion in 1998 and R23.3 billion in 2003. This represents a
    nominal  growth of more than 36% per annum over  the  period
    and  far  outweighs  the growth in trade with  Germany,  the
    United  States, the United Kingdom and Japan.  Despite  this
    rapid  growth, South Africa-China trade is still  less  than
    one-half  that  of  South Africa's trade  with  its  largest
    partners,  Germany and the U.S., respectively. Imports  from
    China  increased by an average of 34% annually  (in  nominal
    terms)  between  1998 and 2003, from R4.3 billion  to  R16.6
    billion.  This  represents  an  average  of  4.3%  of  South
    Africa's  total  import  value over  the  period  1998-2003.
    Exports to China increased from less than R1 billion in 1998
    to  R6.7 billion in 2003. During the first eleven months  of
    2004  total trade with China valued at R27.1 billion. (Note:
    the  base  year is 1998 because that is the year when  South
    Africa formally recognized China.)

    ¶5.   The  ABSA  publication  points  out  that  despite  the
    strength  of the rand, which had a dampening effect  on  the
    overall value of South African exports in 2003, the value of
    goods  exported to China in 2003 was almost 42% higher  than
    in  2002. Even with this strong growth in the value of South
    African  exports  to  China,  however,  South  Africa  still
    maintains a sizable trade deficit with China. In 1998  South
    Africa's trade deficit with China stood at R3.4 billon,  and
    increased to R9.9 billion in 2003.

    Imports
    -------------

    ¶6.   SARS  trade  data  indicates that Chinese  imports  are
    steadily  making inroads into the South African economy.  In
    1998,  imports  from China accounted for 3% of  total  South
    African imports. In 2003 China's share increased to 6.4% and
    based  on the available eleven months' trade data for  2004,
    China's share could increase to above 7% in 2004.
    Based  on the average share of imports over the period  1998
    to  2003, the following product categories represented South
    Africa's largest imports from China:
    --   Machinery   and   mechanical   appliances;   electrical
    equipment;  parts thereof; sound recorders and  reproducers,
    television  image  and sound recorders and reproducers,  and
    parts and accessories of such articles (chapter 16);
    -- Textiles and textile articles (chapter 11);
    --  Footwear,  headgear, umbrellas, sun umbrellas,  walking-
    sticks,  seat-sticks, whips, riding-crops and parts thereof;
    prepared  feathers  and articles made therewith;  artificial
    flowers; articles of human hair (chapter 12);
    --  Products  of the chemical or allied industries  (chapter
    6); and
    -- Miscellaneous manufactured articles (chapter 20).

    Together these five product categories accounted for 70%  of
    the  total import value from China over the period  1998  to
    2003.Almost one third of the value of imports from China was
    accounted  for by a single product category, i.e. machinery,
    electrical  equipment, sound recorders etc,  while  textiles
    and  textile  articles  accounted  for  an  additional  13%.
    Footwear  and  chemical products accounted for  9%  and  8%,
    respectively,  of  South African imports  from  China,  with
    miscellaneous  manufactured  articles  accounting   for   an
    additional 8%.

    ¶7.   The  ABSA  publication highlights very high  levels  of
    growth  in  imports  from  China  in  most  of  the  product
    categories.  In the case of footwear products, for  example,
    imports  from China grew at a nominal rate of 43% per  annum
    between  1998  and 2003, increasing China's share  of  total
    South  African footwear imports from 27% in 1998 to  70%  in
    ¶2003.  Textile and apparel imports from China  increased  by
    42%  annually  (in  nominal terms) between  1998  and  2003,
    accounting for almost 70% of the apparel imports in 2003 and
    resulting in China capturing 30% of the local market in 2003
    against an 8% share in 1998. Newspaper reports indicate that
    many  South  African producers feel threatened by  the  high
    level   of  very  competitive  Chinese  imports  that   have
    penetrated the South African market over the past six years.

    Exports
    -------------

    ¶8.   International trade data shows that China  has  already
    started  to increase its level of imports from the  rest  of
    the  world  and  this  represents an opportunity  for  South
    African exporters to exploit. According to SARS trade  data,
    South  African  exports  to China  have  traditionally  been
    concentrated  within the mineral products  and  base  metals
    segments  of  the  market. Between 1998  and  2003,  mineral
    products accounted for almost 42% of the total value  of  SA
    to  China  and base metals for an additional 26%, thus  more
    than two thirds of total export value to China. In 2003  the
    share  increased to more than 70% of the value, although  it
    was the base metals product category that started to play  a
    greater  role.  Other  top exports to China,  based  on  the
    average  share  of  exports over the period  1998  to  2003,
    include:

    ---   Machinery   and   mechanical  appliances;   electrical
    equipment;  parts thereof; sound recorders  an  reproducers,
    television  image  and sound recorders and reproducers,  and
    parts and accessories of such articles;
    ---  Products of the chemical or allied industries;  and  --
    Pulp  of wood or of other fibrous cellulosic material; waste
    and  scrap  of paper or paperboard; paper and paperboard  of
    paper  or  paperboard;  paper and  paperboard  and  articles
    thereof.
    These top five export categories together accounted for  85%
    of the total export value of South African goods exported to
    China.   The  growth  in  exports  for  these  five  product
    categories was in excess of 30% per annum between  1998  and
    ¶2003.

    ¶9.  According to the ABSA publication, almost 80% of mineral
    product   exports   to  China  comprised   iron   ores   and
    concentrates   (HS2601),  with  China  being   the   largest
    destination  of  such exports from South Africa,  accounting
    for  35%  of South Africa's total export value in 2003.  The
    composition  of base metal exports to China was more  evenly
    spread,  with copper bars, rods and profiles (HS7407),  flat
    rolled  stainless  steel products (HS7219) and  ferro-alloys
    (HS7202)  on  average  accounting  for  18%,  17%  and  15%,
    respectively,  of  the  total value of  base  metal  exports
    between  1998  and 2003. An interesting fact from  the  ABSA
    publication is that although China was South Africa's single
    largest  destination of copper bars, rods and profiles  over
    the  period  1998  to 2003, the growth in  exports  of  such
    products  to China declined since 1998. As a result  China's
    share  of South Africa's total exports of copper bars,  rods
    and  profiles decreased from 31% in 1998 to 19% in 2003. The
    publication  also  points out that  South  Africa's  largest
    chemical export product to China between 1998 and 2003 on  a
    product level was ketones and quinones, whether or not  with
    other  oxygen  function, and their halogenated, sulphonated,
    nitrated  or nitrosated derivatives (HS2914) accounting  for
    30%  of  such exports over the period. China was  the  fifth
    largest   consumer  of  these  exports  from  South  Africa,
    representing  9% of South African exports. Acyclic  alcohols
    and  their  halogenated, sulphonated, nitrated or nitrosated
    derivatives  (HS2905) was another important chemical  export
    product for South Africa. China was the third largest export
    destination  of such exports, accounting for  10%  of  total
    exports of these products over the period 1998 and 2003, but
    growing at an average annual rate of more than 73% over  the
    period.

    FRAZER

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