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### Viewing cable 03FRANKFURT10314, ECB on the Stability and Growth Pact: Results or

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
03FRANKFURT10314 | 2003-12-18 13:07 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Consulate Frankfurt

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 FRANKFURT 010314

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR EUR PDAS RIES, EB, EUR/AGS, AND EUR/ERA
    STATE PASS FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD
    STATE PASS NSC
    TREASURY FOR DAS SOBEL
    TREASURY ALSO FOR ICN COX, STUART
    PARIS ALSO FOR OECD
    TREASURY FOR OCC RUTLEDGE, MCMAHON

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EFIN EUN
    SUBJECT: ECB on the Stability and Growth Pact:  Results or
    Call The Bluff

    T-IA-F-03-0065

    This cable is sensitive but unclassified.  Not/not for
    Internet distribution.

    ¶1.   (SBU) Summary:  The European Central Bank (ECB) was
    exceptionally, sternly and publicly critical of Ecofin's
    decision on Germany and France under the Stability and
    Growth Pact (SGP), but has been careful neither to trash the
    SGP nor the process.  Rather, their message is that the SGP
    lives and that they expect Germany, France and Ecofin to
    live up to their commitments.  In the case of the two
    countries, this means that deficits be under 3% in 2005 and,
    failing to do so, Ecofin take measures under the procedures
    previously recommended by the Commission.  Putting a bit of
    monetary muscle into the mix, the ECB has listed "fiscal
    policies" as one of the various indicators it considers when
    assessing future inflation trends, although they are quick
    to point out this has always been so.  A Council Secretariat
    expert points out that, in fact, by "suspending" the
    proceedings, Ecofin wanted to be clear that it reserved the
    possibility to re-open proceedings and still apply
    sanctions, even though the time limit for doing so is to
    expire at the end of the year.  The question remains whether
    and on what evidence the Commission, the only entity that
    can recommend re-opening the proceedings, would do so.  Once
    burned, twice shy.  End Summary.

    ECB: Not Dead, but Alive
    ________________________

    ¶2.   (SBU) Senior ECB officials have explained that while
    the ECB was very upset with Ecofin's decision under the SGP
    on Germany and France, they don't want to give the
    impression that the SGP is dead or they want to change it.
    Rather, they want the commitments made in the Ecofin
    decision to be respected.

    ¶3.   (SBU) In its December Monthly Bulletin, the ECB's
    editorial reported that the Governing Council took note of
    the commitments made by France and Germany to "correct their
    excessive deficits as rapidly as possible and at the latest
    by 2005."  The Council also noted that the Ecofin Council
    "stands ready to give notice to the two governments to take
    measures that would lead to a correction of their excessive
    deficits."  ECB President Trichet was more direct in his
    press conference after the Governing Council's December 4
    meeting:  the Governing Council "noted that the Ecofin
    Council stands ready to take a decision under Article
    104(9), on the basis of the Commission recommendation,
    should the two government fail to act in accordance with
    their own commitments."  He went on to declare that the SGP
    "remains of central importance and should be fully
    respected."

    Link to Monetary Policy?  All Part of the Whole Ball of Wax
    _____________________________________________ ______________

    ¶4.   (SBU) At his December press conference Trichet also
    mentioned that the outlook for price stability is
    conditional on quite a number of assumptions.  Among them he
    cited the usual, e.g. oil prices, exchange rates, and wage
    developments.  He also mentioned "fiscal measures."  This
    lead to a follow up question, on whether the discussion over
    the SGP will have a direct effect on ECB interest rate
    policy.  Trichet replied that they take in all data to make
    such an assessment and they have a "working assumption" that
    the "commitments that were made by the countries concerned
    and the commitments that were made by the qualified majority
    of the Council would be met 100%."

    ¶5.   (SBU)Some market commentators have speculated that the
    ECB Governing Council might use monetary policy to "punish"
    Finance Ministers for their decision.  ECB officials are
    quick to point out that this is not the case.  Rather,
    fiscal policies are included in the comprehensive array of
    data the ECB examines in determining potential inflationary
    pressures. (Note:  The notion of such retribution is not as
    odd as it may sound; the halls of the Bundesbank still echo
    with the story of the then-Chancellor Schmidt flying to
    Frankfurt to plea for lower interest rates directly with the
    Bundesbank Council, only to have the Council raise rates
    after he left the room - as if to disabuse anyone that they
    were not truly independent.)

    Form and Substance:  ECB Focuses on Substance
    _____________________________________________

    ¶6.   (SBU) At the press conference one journalist attempted
    to lure Trichet into a debate of the form of Ecofin's
    decision over its substantive meaning, e.g. implications for
    the euro.  Trichet would not take the bait, musing that one
    cannot "separate the form, the procedure and the substance."
    However, the following week at the Economic and Monetary
    Affairs Committee of the European Parliament, Trichet did
    seek to clarify the "economic underpinnings" as to why the
    SGP is "very important for the function of the single
    currency area."

    ¶7.   (SBU) He explained that the SGP allows him to respond
    to two criticisms, "frequently voiced from the other side of
    the Atlantic."  First, is the criticism about monetary
    policy conducted with "random behavior of fiscal policies"
    in the absence of an EU federal budget.  Second, is the
    criticism that the absence of a federal budget does not
    allow Europe to cope with asymmetric shocks, when one
    country suffers a shock not felt by another.  The SGP is the
    only means by which Europe can claim to deal with random
    fiscal policies and to admonish countries to have a close to
    balanced budget to provide room for maneuver to cope with
    shocks.

    ¶8.   More generally, Trichet said that there is a limit
    beyond which increased deficits "hamper growth because you
    are creating more lack of confidence than .you can get from
    the simple neo-Keynesian effect."  According to an ECB
    official close to Trichet, this is a very personal view, not
    one necessarily blessed by the Governing Council.  Trichet
    had elaborated that point in his first major policy speech
    on November 20 in Frankfurt.  He had said that governments
    following the SGP "will reduce public spending, which is
    conducive to growth through the alleviation of unproductive
    spending and reduction of costs in the economy."  In his
    view, economic growth would be enhanced since lower deficits
    would diminish medium and long-term interest rates and
    improve households' and business confidence that taxes won't
    increase leading to higher consumption and investment.

    Ecofin Decision: Trigger Cocked, but Will Commission Pull
    It?
    _____________________________________________ ____________

    ¶9.   (SBU) According to an expert in the EU Council, the
    Council decision reflected the discretion afforded Ministers
    under the SGP, but was firmer than the press or the
    Commission made it out to be, in his opinion.  He shared the
    ECB's view that Ecofin had put itself on the hook to take
    action:  "The Council stands ready to take a decision under
    Article 104(9)"  should France or Germany "fail to act in
    accordance with the commitments set out in these
    Conclusions."  Note that Article 104(9) is the step
    requiring specific commitments to be fulfilled within a
    specific timeframe.  Failing that, the next step would be
    sanctions under Article 104 (11).

    ¶10.  (SBU) With respect to sanctions, this Council expert
    pointed out that Ecofin's decision to hold the excessive
    deficit procedure in "abeyance" was designed to retain the
    leverage of possible sanctions.  Under Article 7 of Council
    Regulation 1467/97, the decision to impose sanctions "shall
    be taken within 10 months" of the dates from which the
    excessive deficits were reported.  For France that would be
    at the end of December - one reason the Commission rushed it
    treatment for France (reftel).  By putting the procedure
    into "abeyance" (a measure also provided for in the Council
    Regulation), the clock is stopped on the 10 months time
    limit for imposing sanctions.  In practical terms that would
    mean that failure to fulfill these commitments would still
    result in sanctions even though the original 10 months time
    period had lapsed.
    One Observation
    _______________

    ¶11.  (SBU) All this is interesting, but the open question is
    whether Ecofin would fulfill its own commitment.  To do so,
    the Commission would have to make another recommendation to
    Ecofin for action should France or Germany be straying from
    their respective consolidation paths.  Having lost this
    round, the Commission may feel shy about a second attempt -
    once bitten, twice shy.  On the other hand, if France and
    Germany are clearly off track, it would be interesting for
    the Commission to call Ecofin's bluff.  If the Commission
    had a strong case, it would be difficult for Ecofin to face
    it down again - particularly with so many other EU economic
    issues, e.g. budget, constitution, at play.

    ¶12.  (U)This cable coordinated with USEU and Embassy Berlin.

    ¶13.  (U)POC: James Wallar, Treasury Representative, e-mail
    wallarjg2@state.gov; tel. 49-(69)-7535-2431, fax 49-(69)-
    7535-2238

    Bodde

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