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### Viewing cable 03ANKARA6780, THE LIRA'S OCTOBER DECLINE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
03ANKARA6780 | 2003-10-30 16:15 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ankara

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

    301615Z Oct 03

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 006780

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    STATE FOR E, EB/IFD, AND EUR/SE
    TREASURY FOR OASIA - JLEICHTER AND MMILLS
    NSC FOR MCKIBBEN AND BRYZA

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EFIN TU
    SUBJECT: THE LIRA'S OCTOBER DECLINE

    REF: A. ANKARA 6554
         ¶B. ANKARA 6623

     ¶1. (Sbu) Summary:  After a long rally, Turkish markets have
    turned down over the past two weeks, although there has been
    little in the way of high-profile, market-jolting bad news.
    Instead, the markets, especially the foreign exchange market,
    have turned around due to a combination of seasonal factors,
    foreign investors' profit-taking, and privatization process
    nervousness among other reasons. End Summary.

    Lira Stops Appreciating, then Falls:
    -----------------------------------

    ¶2. (Sbu) Turkish markets sustained summer and early fall
    rally started to fizzle in early October: the lira had
    already begun to weaken from its September 23 peak of TL
    1.354 million per USD to TL 1.408 million on October 15.
    Strangely enough, the pressure on the lira accelerated after
    the GOT reached an agreement with Fund staff October 15 and
    submitted its budget to parliament October 17--events that
    should have cheered the markets.

    ¶3. (Sbu)  The week of October 20 opened with what should have
    been the positive news of Finance Minister Unakitan's press
    conference on the just-submitted, fiscally-austere budget.
    Yet on October 20, the Central Bank, faced with sharply lower
    demand for TL, lowered its daily foreign exchange purchase
    auction amount from USD 120 million to USD 60 million as of
    October 21, and completely abandoned the FX purchases as of
    October 23. Nevertheless, the lira continued to fall, closing
    the week on October 24 at TL 1.486 million and diving Monday
    and during the half-day Tuesday, October 28 to TL 1.520
    million, a five-month low.  After the October 29 holiday, the
    lira came back on Thursday, October 30 to TL 1,498 million,
    however, Central Bank officials told econoff they did not
    expect a resumption of the lira rally.

    ¶4. (Sbu) The late summer nominal appreciation of the lira
    against the dollar had exaggerated the lira's overall
    appreciation: on a trade-weighted basis the lira's movement
    was less pronounced because the dollar fell against the euro
    during this period.  By contrast, the late October fall in
    the lira/dollar rate was mirrored in the lira/euro rate and
    nothing to do with dollar/euro movements.

    Why the Fall?
    ------------

    ¶5. (Sbu) The fall in the lira is particularly interesting
    given that the markets had made it past a series of
    potentially-frightening political events without the feared
    outcomes materializing: the Dehap court case, the IMF mission
    visit, the signing of the U.S. Financial Agreement, and
    parliamentary authorization of a deployment to Iraq all
    turned out the way the markets wanted. Moreover, Standard and
    Poors announced it had moved the outlook for Turkey from
    negative to stable last week.  So, why the fall now?

    ¶6. (Sbu) A confluence of factors seems to have reversed
    sentiment on the lira.  First, the lira was probably
    overvalued.  The currency had been appreciating in nominal
    terms since the spring despite an inflation rate far above
    that of Turkey's trading partners--in other words the lira's
    value had skyrocketed in real terms.  Central Bank officials
    told econoffs they had been surprised at the height of the
    lira's peak.  Second, the lira often starts to weaken in the
    fall, as the summer tourism season with its FX inflows comes
    to an end.  Market participants and central bank officials
    also say that there has been a significant movement by
    foreign players out of Turkish lira, reportedly to book their
    profits.

    ¶7. (Sbu) Several domestic developments appear to have
    unsettled market participants.  First among these was a press
    report that the Government was drafting a new decree to
    "protect the Turkish lira," which would discourage domestic
    transactions denominated in foreign exchange.  Though Economy
    Minister Babacan later denied that this represented a
    tightening of the foreign exchange control regime, markets
    were understandably negative on the idea.  Also, early last
    week there were a several ministers made comments about
    Turkey not needing the USD 8.5 billion loan from the U.S.,
    making markets nervous about the status of the assistance.
    On privatization, though the bids on parastatals Tupras and
    Tekel reportedly took place October 24, the Privatization
    Authority made the market nervous by saying it would not
    announce who bid until the week of November 1, adding to
    doubts about the real status of the bids, particularly on the
    oil refiner Tupras.  Finally, worries about the status of the
    U.S. loan and yet another "reception crisis" between the
    President and the Ak Party Government over the wearing of
    headscarves at the Independence Day reception, further
    undermined market confidence.

    ¶8. (Sbu) In a meeting October 30, Central Bank officials
    explained to econoffs that the prospect of a repayment plan
    for Imar Bank depositors has also weighed on the foreign
    exchange market.  According to these officials, the Central
    Bank succeeded in convincing the GOT to pay only TL 10
    billion rather than TL 15 billion per depositor as a first
    instalment.  Since half of the Imar Bank deposits had been in
    foreign exchange, the payment to depositors entirely in TL
    was likely to result in massive conversions back to foreign
    exchange, a prospect that weighed on the lira.  The Central
    Bankers also told econoffs that there were market rumors of
    an impending Treasury debt swap that would be indexed to
    foreign exchange, leaving banks with open positions that the
    banks would have to close by selling lira.  The Central
    Bankers' analysis about the Imar Bank would tend to be
    confirmed by the appreciation of the lira October 30, after
    the repayment plan--at the lesser amount--was announced.  The
    passing of the headscarf "reception crisis" may also have
    helped market sentiment.

    ¶9. (Sbu) There is also beginning to be increased concern
    about balance of payments issues and the prospects for the
    Current Account deficit.  In recent months, there has been
    little discussion about BOP concerns, in part due to the
    buoyancy of exports and the apparently positive trends in the
    overall economy.  In a speech October 16, however, former
    Economy Minister Kemal Dervis warned about the Current
    Account deficit.  On October 27, the Central Bank announced
    August BOP numbers, showing that the twelve-month rolling
    Current Account deficit rose to USD 4.3 billion at the end of
    August, and that the Current Account deficit for the year was
    projected to reach USD 7.7 billion, or about 3.1 percent of
    GDP.  Some analysts are beginning to express concern about
    the Current Account deficit.  On the other hand, an IMF
    official told econoff October 20 that the Fund did not have
    particular concerns about the outlook for the Current
    Account, given the GOT's access to financing and the floating
    exchange rate regime. Central Bank Markets Department
    officials articulated a similar view, expressing confidence
    that the floating exchange rate regime acts as an automatic
    stabilizer.

    Milder Correction in Debt Market:
    --------------------------------

    ¶10. (Sbu) The sharpest movements were in the foreign exchange
    and equity markets, but the debt market was not immune.
    Though on October 17 the benchmark bond was still trading at
    29.74 percent, near its post-crisis low, during the week of
    October 20-24 it rose to 31.58 and by the close October 28 it
    closed at 32.12 percent.  In the October 30 post-holiday
    uptick, the benchmark closed at 31.70.  It is noteworthy that
    the domestic debt market bore up better than the currency and
    equity markets, despite large redemptions the week of October
    20-24.  Central Bank officials agreed that this disconnect
    between the debt and FX markets demonstrated that foreigners
    moving out of lira instruments were a key factor in the fall
    of the lira, since the domestic debt market is less
    influenced by foreign investors.

    Comment:
    -------

    ¶11. (Sbu) It is too soon to tell whether the fall in the lira
    represents a sustained change of direction, which could lead
    to concerns about overshooting and problems on the inflation
    and debt fronts.  For now, it should at least have the
    positive effect of muting pressures on the Central Bank from
    politicians and business people to do something about the
    strong lira.  Though the weaker lira could make it harder for
    Turkey to make its 2003 inflation target, Central Bank
    officials told econoffs there might not be too big an impact,
    at least in 2003. According to these officials business
    people have not been quick to pass through exchange rate
    fluctuations into their prices, reducing the correlation
    between exchange rate movements and inflation.  If there is
    an effect, these officials expect it to hit with a lag,
    causing inflation in early 2004.

    EDELMAN

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