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### Viewing cable 05PRETORIA3014, ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF SOUTH AFRICAN TRADE AND

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05PRETORIA3014 | 2005-07-29 07:32 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Pretoria

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PRETORIA 003014

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    DEPT FOR AF/S; AF/EPS; EB/TPP/MTA; EB/IFD
    USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/IEP/ANESA/OA/JDIEMOND
    COMMERCE ALSO FOR HVINEYARD
    TREASURY FOR BRESNICK AND CUSHMAN
    DEPT PASS USTR FOR PCOLEMAN

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ETRD EINV ECON EAID KMCA SF USTR
    SUBJECT: ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF SOUTH AFRICAN TRADE AND
    INVESTMENT TO SADC AND THE REST OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

    REF:  (A) PRETORIA 2977

          (B) PRETORIA 2971

    (U) This cable is sensitive but unclassified.  Not for Internet
    distribution.

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary.  When South Africa grows, so does Africa.  A
    main challenge for South Africa is how it can use its engine of
    trade to benefit its own poor as well as the poor on the
    continent.  The South African government regards trade and
    investment with the rest of Africa with increasing political and
    economic importance.  South African trade with SADC has doubled
    from R16 billion in 1996 to R32 billion in 2004 while South
    African foreign direct investment (FDI) stock in Africa has
    increased from R4.7 billion to R15.8 billion during the same
    period.  The dominant position of the South African economy in
    southern Africa has resulted in an imbalance in the country's
    trade relationship with sub-Saharan Africa and is regarded as one
    of the greatest challenges for trade and industrial integration
    in the region.  South Africa's ten major African trading partners
    (including eight countries in SADC) account for 88% of all South
    African trade with sub-Saharan Africa.  End summary.

    The importance of South Africa to sub-Saharan Africa
    --------------------------------------------- -------

    ¶2. (SBU) When South Africa grows, so does Africa.  South Africa
    is a regional economic power, representing over 35% of sub-
    Saharan GDP.  In 2003, 14% of South African exports went to other
    African countries. South Africa is the major foreign investor in
    every southern African country, and now the major foreign
    investor in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa.  The Economist
    reports that South African firms have invested approximately $1
    billion annually in other African countries.  South Africa also
    serves as a base for many non-African companies wanting to
    operate in the region and is an increasingly an important
    training hub.  An IMF study showed that an increase in South
    Africa's growth rate of 2-3 percentage points, if sustained,
    would result in a 1 point increase in SADC exports to South
    Africa, and an equal increase in SADC GDP.

    ¶3.  (SBU) South Africa is a model for the rest of the continent
    on what can be accomplished through implementing good economic
    policies and developing strong institutions.  At the same time,
    as the other cables in this series show, South Africa's second
    economy is an unfortunate match for the misery of millions living
    in least developed countries.  A main challenge for South Africa
    is how it can use its engine of trade to benefit its own poor as
    well as the poor on the continent.  Increasing its imports from
    the rest of sub-Saharan Africa would be one way to do this.
    While there are efforts in that direction as discussed below,
    much of the trade relationship is skewed in favor of South
    Africa's exports.  More needs to be done by South Africa in
    removing trade barriers to regional trade.

    ¶4. (SBU) The South African government states that its global
    economic strategy can be viewed through the lens of an
    economically reinvigorated Africa, which forms part of the goal
    of the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD).  It
    regards trade relations with African states of increasing
    political and economic importance to South Africa.  Investors
    regard South Africa as the stepping-stone or gateway for trade
    and investment in sub-Saharan Africa.

    ¶5.  (U) South African Revenue Service (SARS) data indicates that
    Africa's share of South Africa's export trade has grown
    significantly from 4% in 1991 to 13% in 2004.  The Department of
    Trade and Industry expects that exports to Africa will continue
    to increase in the immediate future, as massive opportunities for
    South African capital are opening up with peace in Angola and the
    prospect of peace in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
    According to the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the year-end
    stock of foreign direct investment in Africa from South Africa
    has increased from R4.7 billion in 1996 to R15.8 billion in 2004.
    (Data in this cable refers to continental Africa.)

    ¶6.  (U) An article published in the African Business Journal
    states that few anticipated the rapidity with which South African
    corporates would exploit African trade and investment
    opportunities.  The article offered four reasons for South
    Africa's rapid market penetration into sub-Saharan Africa.  The
    first was the surplus of investment capital that South African
    corporations had after apartheid sanctions were lifted.  The
    second was that the end of the Cold War convinced many African
    countries to accept market economics and relax barriers to trade.
    The third was the many opportunities to rehabilitate and
    modernize the Africa's deteriorating and outdated infrastructure.
    The fourth was the gap created by the developed world becoming
    increasingly disillusioned with Africa, but increasingly
    interested in eastern and central Europe as an investment
    destination.

    The importance of South Africa in SACU
    --------------------------------------

    ¶7. (SBU) South Africa's greatest economic influence resides in
    southern Africa.  Within the Southern African Customs Union
    (SACU), South Africa has unimpeded market access to the Namibian,
    Botswana, Lesotho, and Swaziland markets under a common external
    tariff.  Because of the size of South Africa's economy, SACU is
    the dominating economic force within the Southern African
    Development Community (SADC). In fact, SACU trade with SADC
    countries has doubled from R16 billion (put in dollars) in 1996
    to R32 billion in 2004, accounting for 62% of SACU's total trade
    with Africa

    ¶8.  (SBU) Reflecting the dominant market position of South
    Africa, SACU enjoys an overwhelming trade surplus with the rest
    of sub-Saharan Africa.  Total SACU trade with sub-Saharan Africa
    in 2004 amounted to R36.7 billion in exports against R12.7
    billion in imports.  A trade surplus with SADC countries mostly
    in manufactured goods, intermediate inputs, and capital
    equipment.  The trade imbalance is complemented by SACU outward
    investment in infrastructure, water and waste management,
    agribusiness, and mining.  Paul Kalenga, senior researcher at the
    University of Cape Town, feels that one of the greatest
    challenges for trade and industrial integration in Southern
    Africa relates to the dominant position of the South African
    economy in southern Africa and that it does not exacerbate
    existing inequalities.

    The importance of South Africa to SADC
    --------------------------------------

    ¶9.  (SBU) Implementation of the SADC Protocol on trade, which
    sets out the terms and conditions for the reduction and
    elimination of tariffs among members, began in 2000 and includes
    the establishment of a SADC free trade area by 2008.  According
    to Paul Kalenga, the SADC Trade Protocol has contributed in
    reducing the trade imbalance by improved access to the South
    African market for SADC exports.  SARS trade data indicates that
    exports by SADC countries to SACU have increased substantially
    from R2.6 billion in 2001 to R6.5 billion in 2004.

    ¶10.  (SBU) According to a researcher at the Human Sciences
    Research Council in Durban, a key feature of the investment drive
    into sub-Saharan Africa has been its broad and diverse nature:
    all six primary sectors of the South African economy (mining,
    retail, construction/manufacturing, financial services,
    telecommunications, tourism) have worked hand in hand in securing
    South African investment throughout the continent.  For example,
    major retailers such as Shoprite, Metro Cash and Carry and Pep
    stores as well as the food chains Nando's and Steers have opened
    their stores across the continent.  An accompanying movement of
    South African property developers who build shopping centers to
    house these chains has mirrored this development.  In addition,
    burgeoning business travel stemming from trade and investment
    from South African groups like MTN, Vodacom, M-Net, Shoprite,
    ABSA and the mining conglomerates, coupled with the growth of
    regional tourism, has created new opportunities for hotel
    interest like the Protea group which has expanded a line of
    hotels across Africa.  South African Airways expanded throughout
    the continent, including purchasing Air Tanzania, to become the
    dominant air carrier in the region.

    ¶11.  (SBU) According to Lumkile Mondi, Chief Economist at the
    Industrial Development Corporation (IDC), South Africa's growing
    penetration of the African economy has been characterized by the
    promotional role played by the South African government through
    the IDC.  He explained that the IDC not only provides funding but
    also shares the risk by taking a direct stake in some projects.
    He said that in cases where the IDC has not been available, South
    African operatives have been keen to invest new capital in
    refurbishing and expanding local businesses and infrastructure
    through joint venture arrangements with African partners.

    ¶12. (U) SARS and SARB data for South Africa's ten key trading
    partners in Africa follow.  Trade with these ten sub-Saharan
    African countries account for respectively 85% and 94% of all
    SACU exports and imports to and from sub-Saharan Africa.  Nigeria
    and Kenya are the only major trading partners outside SADC.
    (Note: Technically the data is for SACU, but as South Africa
    accounts for the vast majority of trade captured in the SACU
    statistics, it is a good proxy of South African trade.)

    Zimbabwe
    --------

    ¶13. (U) Despite political instability, Zimbabwe remains South
    Africa's largest trading partner in Africa.  Zimbabwe was the
    largest export destination for South African goods in 2004,
    accounting for R5.96 billion or 16% of all South African exports
    to Africa.  Imports from Zimbabwe amounted to R2.76 billion in
    the same year.  FDI stock from South Africa at the end of 2003
    amounted to R2.03 billion.

    Nigeria
    -------

    ¶14. (U) The South African government regards bilateral and
    multilateral relations with Nigeria as strategically important,
    particularly in a forum such as Nepad.  South African companies
    have been successful in several sectors in Nigeria, namely the
    hospitality, financial services, communications and energy
    sectors.  Nigeria accounted for R2.85 billion worth of South
    African exports, while R5.19 billion or 41% of all of South
    Africa's sub-Saharan African imports came from Nigeria in 2004.
    Nigeria is South Africa's only sub-Saharan trading partner in
    which the trade balance shows a deficit

    Zambia
    ------

    ¶15. (U) Trade data indicates that trade and investment between
    South Africa and Zambia has increased substantially since 1993 as
    both countries are taking advantage of existing bilateral
    agreements.  South Africa's third largest trading partner, Zambia
    imported goods worth R4.7 billion in 2004, while Zambian exports
    to South Africa amounted to almost R1 billion in 2004.  Total
    year-end stock of South African FDI in Zambia at the end of 2003
    amounted to R415 million.

    Mozambique
    ----------

    ¶16. (U) South African exporters regard Mozambique as a key
    African export destination.  South African exports, R5.05 billion
    in 2004, accounted for 13.2% of its total exports to Africa.
    South African imports from Mozambique measured only R196 million
    in the same year.  South African foreign direct investment stock
    into Mozambique amounted to R5.07 billion in December 2003, 32%
    of total South African FDI stock in Africa.  According to
    Department of Trade and Industry officials, the skewed trade
    balance (heavily in South Africa's favor) can be attributed to
    Mozambique's under-development.

    Angola
    ------

    ¶17. (SBU) Angola accounts for 9% of total South African trade
    with Africa.  Exports to Angola amounted to R3.08 billion in
    2004, while imports from Angola amounted to R1.68 billion.  South
    African businesses view the post-war Angola as a huge
    construction site strewn with lucrative contracts to be signed.
    Government expects trade and investment to Angola to increase in
    future.

    Kenya
    -----
    ¶18. (U) Like almost every African trading partner, the trade
    balance with Kenya is strongly in South Africa's favor.
    Exports to Kenya amounted to R2.89 billion in 2004 while imports
    were only R324 million.

    Tanzania
    --------

    ¶19. (U) Exports totaled R2.19 billion in 2004 and imports R206
    million.  Tanzania and South Africa have signed a Memorandum Of
    Understanding (MOU) on trade and industry programmes and a
    general agreement on economic, scientific, technical and cultural
    co-operation.

    Malawi
    ------

    ¶20. (U) The financial, retail, construction and telecommunication
    sectors are providing strong opportunities for investment in
    Malawi.  In 2004, exports to Malawi totaled nearly R1.6 billion
    and imports were R429 million.

    Mauritius
    ---------

    ¶21. (U) After Mozambique, Mauritius is South Africa's favorite
    destination for foreign direct investment.  The total South
    African FDI year-end stock in Mauritius amounted to R4.1 billion
    at the end of 2003.  Exports to Mauritius amounted to R1.73
    billion in 2004. (Note:  part of these exports include South
    African fabric that goes into Mauritian apparel exported duty-
    free to the United States under AGOA.)

    Democratic Republic of Congo
    ----------------------------

    ¶22. (U) Despite an unsettled time in the DRC, exports to the
    country were worth R1.33 billion and imports R44 million in 2004.
    With the prospect of peace, the DRC should provide massive
    opportunities for South African capital in future.

    HARTLEY

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