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### Viewing cable 05BRASILIA949, BRAZIL: CHIPPING AWAY AT THE FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05BRASILIA949 | 2005-04-06 17:46 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Brasilia

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 000949

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    NSC FOR BREIER, RENIGAR
    TREASURY FOR OASIA - DAS LEE AND FPARODI
    STATE PASS TO FED BOARD OF GOVERNORS FOR ROBITAILLE
    USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWAR D
    USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USCS/OIO/WH/RD/DDEVITO/DANDERSON/EOL SON

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EFIN PGOV EINV BR
    SUBJECT: BRAZIL: CHIPPING AWAY AT THE FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY
    LAW

    REF:  Brasilia 321

    This cable is Sensitive but Unclassified, please protect
    accordingly.

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Faced with the awkward prospect of
    enforcing the Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRF) against
    former Sao Paulo mayor, friend of Lula and prominent
    Workers' Party (PT) figure Marta Suplicy (reftel), the GoB
    has been less than coherent.  Finance Minister Palocci sent
    to Congress a letter acknowledging that Suplicy had
    violated the law in taking out a loan to finance a public
    lighting program without the Finance Ministry's prior
    approval.  Then, in an apparent about face, the GoB issued
    an executive decree that retroactively created an exception
    to the LRF for public investments of just that sort.
    Despite Lula Administration efforts to shield her, the
    matter may soon be out of the GoB's hands since Suplicy's
    replacement as Sao Paulo mayor, Jose Serra of the
    opposition PSDB, has forwarded to the municipal Accounts
    Tribunal (a fiscal oversight body) the final financial
    report for 2004, Suplicy's last year in office, indicating
    that her administration left uncovered obligations of over
    a billion Reals.  In addition, State Deputy Alberto
    Goldman, the President of the Sao Paulo PSDB party filed a
    complaint with the Federal Public Prosecutor's office
    listing her alleged LRF violations.  Prosecutors, we are
    told, are itching to get their hands on such a high profile
    case.  For her part, Suplicy is reportedly considering a
    run in 2006 under the PT banner for the Sao Paulo state
    governorship.  While the GoB's actions in this case have
    chipped away at the integrity of the LRF system, they have
    not yet struck its foundations.  End Summary.

    Marta's Law
    -----------

    ¶2. (SBU) Apparent violations of the fiscal responsibility
    law (LRF) by Lula associate and prominent PT member Marta
    Suplicy during her 2001-2004 tenure as mayor of Sao Paulo
    (reftel) have put the GoB on the defensive.  Finance
    Minister Palocci admitted in a January letter to Congress
    that one Suplicy administration action, the contracting of
    debt to fund a public lighting program without prior
    Finance Ministry approval, had violated LRF provisions
    restricting such actions by cities whose debt stock is
    above 120% of revenues.  Shortly thereafter the GoB
    inserted in Provisional Measure (MP) 237, a decree dealing
    primarily with other issues, a few paragraphs that created
    a retroactive exemption to the LRF specifically for the
    type of investment in question.  While four other cities
    also benefited from this rule change, no one doubts that
    the measure was meant to create an exemption for Suplicy's
    Sao Paulo administration.  (Note: Meant to deal with urgent
    problems, provisional measures are a peculiarity of the
    Brazilian system.  They are executive decrees with the
    force of law that take effect immediately upon publication.
    To become permanent legislation, however, they must be
    ratified by Congress, which in turn is required to vote on
    them within a defined time period.  End note.)  The MP has
    not yet been voted out of Congress, where some have
    questioned its constitutionality.

    ¶3. (U) The Finance Ministry separately issued a resolution
    changing the interpretation of "mid-course" debt ceilings,
    set by Congress at the same time the LRF was passed, so
    that they would not be binding for another decade.  The
    debt ceilings at issue were set by Congress to limit
    states' and municipalities' ability to take out new debt.
    The GoB's action appears aimed at bypassing a somewhat
    arcane technical miscalculation in the inflation indexing
    that was used to correct state and city nominal debt stocks
    for inflation (reftel).  The LRF uses an exchange rate-
    sensitive inflation index, the IGP-DI, to adjust for
    inflation the debt that states and cities owe the Federal
    Government.  State and municipal revenues, however, tend to
    closely track consumer inflation levels, which are much
    less exchange rate sensitive.  This mismatch makes it
    possible for a state or municipality's debt to the GoB to
    grow much more quickly than its revenues, even without new
    debt.  And, while Sao Paulo did take out some new debt, the
    bulk of growth in its debt stock was due to this indexation
    problem, setting the stage for a somewhat artificial
    violation of the Congressionally-set debt ceilings.

    ¶4. (SBU) Raul Velloso, a financial consultant and economist
    linked to new Sao Paulo mayor Jose Serra acknowledged to
    Econoff April 1 that the indexation mismatch needed to be
    addressed.  He argued, however, that the GoB's approach,
    which boiled down to saying the debt ceilings will not be
    enforced in the near term, failed both to address the
    underlying technical problem and created the distinct
    impression that it was doing so to protect Suplicy.  (Note:
    Most media that covered the issue sounded a note of alarm
    on precisely that point.)  Velloso, however, was not
    worried that the vitiation of the debt ceilings would open
    the way for uncontrolled spending by the states and
    municipalities.  He pointed out that the LRF's real
    procedural teeth were the requirements for prior Finance
    Ministry approval for contracting debt and the Federal
    Government's ability to withhold transfer payments to the
    states and municipalities should they miss debt payments.

    ¶5. (SBU) Reflecting on the Suplicy case, UN Economic
    Commission economist Carlos Mussi told Econoff that the
    GoB's actions raised clear concerns about its ability to
    maintain fiscal discipline among states and municipalities.
    Now that one exception had been made, he predicted that
    governors and mayors would be lining up at the Finance
    Ministry's door asking that they be given the similar
    treatment.  While concerned, Mussi did not believe the GoB
    had undermined the foundations of the LRF.

    Out of the GoB's Hands?
    ------------------------

    ¶6. (U) The Serra administration in Sao Paulo, meanwhile,
    has sent to the municipal-level Accounts Tribunal (a
    judicial branch fiscal oversight body) the final report on
    the city's accounts for 2004, the last year of the Suplicy
    administration.  According to the Serra administration's
    calculations, Suplicy left over a billion Reals of bills to
    be paid, but only 379 thousand Reals cash on hand in city
    coffers at the end of 2004.  It is a violation of the LRF
    for elected officials to leave unpaid obligations without
    the resources to cover them at the end of their
    administration.  The Accounts Tribunal has 90 days to
    evaluate the financial accounts before deciding whether to
    accept or reject the annual report.  If irregularities are
    found in the accounts, the Tribunal is expected to refer
    them to the Public Prosecutor's office (Ministerio Publico)
    for action.

    ¶7. (SBU) Independently, the state president of the PSDB in
    Sao Paulo last week filed a complaint with the Federal
    Prosecutor's office, with a case file on alleged breaches
    of the LRF under the Suplicy administration.  According to
    Velloso, the primary accusation is that Suplicy did not
    leave funds to cover unpaid bills, a violation of the LRF.
    Velloso felt this alleged breach of the LRF, which includes
    the supplier debt that Suplicy reneged on as she left
    office (reftel), was much more serious than the separate
    violations of the debt ceiling and the procedural failure
    to get Finance Ministry approval for the public lighting
    program loan.  MP 232 and the separate Finance Ministry
    resolution addressing the latter two points do not shield
    Suplicy from prosecution under the former.  Velloso
    believed that the Municipal Accounts Tribunal would forward
    the case to the Public Ministry for prosecution within a
    few months.  Velloso said the prosecutors were salivating
    at the thought of getting their hands on such a high
    profile case, implying that they would move the case to
    trial.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶8. (SBU) Other than looking the other way, the GoB appears
    not to have a strategy to deal with the Suplicy problem.
    This likely reflects the many directions it is being pulled
    by political forces and, within some parts of the GoB, a
    desire not to undermine the LRF.  Those actions they have
    taken so far to protect Suplicy, however, have been
    unalloyed bad news.  We nevertheless agree with Mussi that
    the foundations of the LRF system have not yet been shaken.
    The LRF system was designed to have a life of its own and
    gave other actors, such as the courts, the ability to press
    enforcement action.  So, Suplicy may yet have her day in
    court.  That alone would help shore up the LRF's
    credibility.  On the parallel political track, the case
    promises to be a practice match for the 2006 elections,
    with the PSDB working to undermine the PT party's, and
    thereby the Lula Administration's carefully cultivated
    image of fiscal responsibility.

    ¶9. (U) This cable was coordinated with Consulates Sao Paulo
    and Rio de Janeiro.

    CHICOLA

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