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### Viewing cable 04DUBLIN1719, SECRETARY SNOW,S DISCUSSIONS WITH THE ARCHITECTS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04DUBLIN1719 | 2004-11-24 16:43 | 2011-07-22 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Dublin

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DUBLIN 001719

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2014
    TAGS: OVIP ECON PREL ETRD EINV PGOV EU
    SUBJECT: SECRETARY SNOW,S DISCUSSIONS WITH THE ARCHITECTS
    OF THE CELTIC TIGER ECONOMY

    Classified By: Ambassador James C. Kenny for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

    ¶1.  (C) Summary: The November 14-15 visit of U.S. Treasury
    Secretary John W. Snow was an opportunity for discussion on

    SIPDIS
    the "secrets" of Ireland,s success with policy-makers and
    businessmen who were the architects of Ireland,s Celtic
    Tiger economy.  These key figures noted that while the
    concepts behind Ireland,s reforms had been simple, the
    political will to carry out the reforms had only come in the
    context of an economic meltdown in the mid-1980s.  They said
    that good-faith relations with labor, investment in
    education, and a "dictatorial" leadership that exposed
    industries to the full discipline of the market had been key
    to success.  Ireland,s skill in securing substantial EU
    support funds and in exploiting U.S. policy on corporate tax
    deferral was another important factor in Ireland,s economic
    turnaround.  Looking ahead, the policy-makers cited both the
    need to ensure Ireland,s continued competitiveness as a
    magnet for foreign direct investment and also the role of
    education in shaping Ireland as an innovation-based,
    higher-value economy.  Secretary Snow,s classroom discussion
    at Dublin City University (DCU) highlighted the role of
    higher education in promoting innovation and
    entrepreneurship.  End summary.

    ------------
    Introduction
    ------------

    ¶2.  (U) The November 14-15 visit of U.S. Treasury Secretary
    John W. Snow was an opportunity for substantive discussion on
    the "secrets" of Ireland,s economic success.  During a
    dinner hosted by the Ambassador and a lunch arranged by the
    Ulster Bank, Secretary Snow spoke with 16 policy-makers and
    businessmen (listed in para 12) who were instrumental in the
    emergence of the Celtic Tiger economy.  A breakfast with the
    American Chamber of Commerce and a classroom exchange at
    Dublin City University (DCU) reinforced the points made by
    these key figures.  The following are the principal insights
    that emerged from Secretary Snow,s visit (which are
    organized thematically, not in the sequential order in which
    they were discussed).

    --------------------------------------------- --------
    In the Beginning: Political Will and Industrial Peace
    --------------------------------------------- --------

    ¶3.  (C) Although the concepts behind Ireland,s reforms had
    been simple, the political will to carry out the reforms had
    only come in the context of the mid-1980s, economic
    meltdown, said Padraig O,hUiginn, former Secretary General
    in the Office of the Taoiseach (Prime Minister).  O,hUiginn
    recalled drafting a proposal for economic recovery during
    that era, using ideas that were "apparent to any first-year
    economics graduate student" ) cut the fiscal deficit, spur
    competition, lower corporate taxes, etc.  The ruling party at
    the time, Fine Gael, did not act on the proposal, but the
    Fianna Fail government elected in 1987 made the document the
    basis for the Program of National Recovery (PNR), which set
    forth the policies that underpinned Ireland,s economic
    turnaround.  Fianna Fail,s "great advantage" at the time,
    said O,hUiginn, was Ireland,s economic crisis; with 18
    percent unemployment and government debt at 130 percent of
    GDP, the political opposition, industry, and labor could not
    afford politically to impede solutions.  The PNR,s linchpin
    was labor,s decision to accept a moderate wage increases in
    exchange for income tax relief, which became the basic
    approach to successive national wage-setting (Social
    Partnership) agreements.  O,hUiginn recounted that the
    Government offered Irish pounds 700 million in tax relief in
    1987 and also cut the fiscal deficit, forcing the closure of
    several hospitals and the retrenchment of 16,000 civil
    servants.  He noted that the moderate wage increase
    incorporated in the PNR laid the foundation for Ireland,s
    competitiveness as an export platform and as a draw for
    foreign direct investment (FDI).

    ¶4.  (C) The Government,s good-faith dealings with unions in
    negotiating Social Partnership agreements were, and remained,
    central to Ireland,s economic success, said Peter Cassells,
    former General Secretary of the Irish Congress of Trade
    Unions.  According to Cassells, a shared understanding
    between unions and the Government on the importance of decent
    wages and housing for workers was the basis of labor,s
    commitment to the Social Partnership approach.  He added that
    the transparency and inclusiveness of wage-setting
    negotiations, in which even the most disgruntled union
    representatives were given voice, were also instrumental to
    success.  The typical industrial relations model in which
    union chiefs and politicians hammered out back-room
    agreements, in the mode of Lyndon Johnson and Lane Kirkland,
    would not have secured labor buy-in to economic reforms,
    Cassells asserted.  He further observed that the Social
    Partnership approach might not be replicable in other EU
    Member States, which typically were more populous than
    Ireland and had more diffuse union structures.

    ----------------------
    The Key: Human Capital
    ----------------------

    ¶5.  (C) The chief source of Ireland,s success has been its
    educated labor force, said EU Commissioner-designate and
    former Irish Finance Minister Charlie McCreevy.  He noted
    that the introduction of free primary and secondary education
    in the 1960-70s initially benefited other countries as much
    as Ireland, due to the emigration of educated Irish workers.
    As a young parliamentarian, moreover, McCreevy had warned
    that the 1970s, baby boom was a looming disaster, on the
    pretext that Ireland,s small, weak economy could not
    accommodate a future surge in labor, even with emigration.
    As it turned out, this large pool of young, educated workers
    became Ireland,s principal resource and the main attraction
    for foreign multinationals to establish subsidiaries in the
    country.  Far from a disaster, the period 1987-2003 saw the
    addition of 600,000 jobs to the economy and drop in the
    unemployment rate from 18 percent to 4 percent.  This
    success, concluded McCreevy, was primarily attributable to
    Ireland,s investment in human capital.

    ------------------------
    "Dictatorial" Leadership
    ------------------------

    ¶6.  (C) The implementation of reforms that underpinned
    Ireland,s economic recovery had required "dictatorial"
    leadership, said McCreevy.  This involved incenitivizing
    industries to achieve efficiencies by exposing them to the
    full discipline of the market, even at the risk of
    bankruptcies.  The challenge in this approach, explained
    McCreevy, was to press ahead with reforms in the face of
    elections, which provided temptations for politicians to
    adopt softer, more populist economic platforms.  Secretary
    Snow observed that whereas the gains from economic reforms in
    any country tended to be diffuse, the losses were often
    concentrated in particular sectors or geographic areas,
    making it easier for those affected to organize political
    opposition.  McCreevy commented that the test of any
    government was how well it explained to dislocated workers
    that the reforms responsible for their plight were good for
    the country.  Indecon Economic Consultants CEO Alan Gray
    separately pointed out that Ireland had succeeded, through
    education, in giving workers the skills to move across
    industries, to the point now where those laid off did not
    ask, "Do I have any hope of a job?" but rather "Which one of
    my new employment choices should I take?"

    -------
    EU Help
    -------

    ¶7.  (C) EU tools, primarily structural support funds, were
    another factor in the emergence of Ireland,s Celtic Tiger
    economy, explained former Prime Minister (1992-95) Albert
    Reynolds and Ray McSharry, former EU Commissioner and Irish
    Finance Minister.  Reynolds said that the Irish Government
    did not shy from viewing such tools as entitlements, since
    Ireland, as an island nation, faced additional challenges
    trading within the European Community.  He and McSharry
    recalled that Ireland had negotiated well to maximize the
    level of EU support.  For example, Reynolds claimed that he
    had obtained over euro one billion from Brussels as a result
    of a discussion with Chancellor Kohl in which Reynolds agreed
    to support Germany,s push for rapid EU enlargement.  EU
    Commissioner-designate McCreevy separately echoed Reynolds,
    points, saying that French Finance Minister Sarkozy,s
    proposal to reduce EU support for new Member States that
    applied low corporate tax rates was shortsighted.  McCreevy
    said that any EU measures to increase growth in the new
    Member States would redound to the benefit of the entire EU.

    ---------------------------
    U.S. Policy on Tax Deferral
    ---------------------------

    ¶8.  (C) The U.S. policy of tax deferral for foreign
    subsidiaries of American firms, combined with Ireland,s 12.5
    percent corporate tax rate, underpinned the large influx of
    U.S. investment to Ireland during the Celtic Tiger period,
    observed Padraic White, former CEO of Ireland,s Industrial
    Development Authority (IDA).  White recounted his numerous
    trips to the U.S. House of Representatives, Ways and Means
    Committee to defend tax deferral, and he argued that Senator
    Kerry,s plan to reverse tax deferral would have "killed
    Ireland," had he been elected.  White believed that
    complaints by the U.S. public about the job outsourcing that
    accompanied U.S. investment flows were wrong-headed.  U.S.
    subsidiaries in Ireland, he argued, were the principle reason
    that the United States had penetrated the personal computer,
    software, and pharmaceutical markets in Europe.  He further
    observed that under-performing U.S. companies were typically
    those that had not attempted to expand overseas.  Secretary
    Snow concurred that U.S. companies that were outsourcing
    overseas were those creating the most jobs in the United
    States.  He highlighted, however, the political difficulty of
    explaining outsourcing to the U.S. public, recalling slogans
    during the recent election campaign that criticized "Benedict
    Arnold CEOs."

    ------------------------------------------
    A Propitious Lack of Monetary Policy Tools
    ------------------------------------------

    ¶9.  (C) An ironic feature of Ireland,s success has been the
    Government,s lack of monetary policy tools, remarked Cormack
    McCarthy, Chief Executive of the Ulster Bank.  One might
    think that a country that had performed so well in terms of
    exports and investment would have relied heavily on interest
    rate and exchange rate levers, said McCarthy.  As a euro-zone
    member, in fact, Ireland had ceded control of its monetary
    policy to the European Central Bank.  The positive result,
    said McCarthy, were low interest rates.  He believed that if
    Ireland had remained control of monetary policy, the
    Government would have been tempted to raise interest rates to
    slow rapid growth in the late 1990s.  Instead, the low rates
    set by the ECB had been a boon to Ireland,s private sector
    and had lent a sense of stability and consistency to the
    Irish market for foreign investors.

    --------------------------------------------
    Looking Ahead: Competitiveness and Education
    --------------------------------------------

    ¶10.  (C) Looking ahead, the principal danger for Ireland is
    complacency, said Eoin O,Driscoll, Chairman of Forfas (the
    Government think-tank) and the Government-commissioned
    Enterprise Strategy Group (ESG).  Echoing the ESG,s recently
    published findings, O,Driscoll cited the need to ensure
    Ireland,s continued competitiveness as a magnet for foreign
    direct investment (FDI), which, he said, had driven the
    country,s economic transformation.  (U.S. and Irish
    businesspersons who attended the November 15 American Chamber
    of Commerce breakfast with Secretary Snow made similar
    points, noting that multinationals were increasingly
    attracted by low-cost manufacturing opportunities in China
    and India.)   O,Driscoll said that, just as industry and
    Government had collaborated in the 1990s to make Ireland a
    base for leading bio-pharmaceutical and IT companies, the
    country needed a new shared vision to go another rung higher
    in the production of innovative, high-value goods and
    services.  He note that this challenge would involve marrying
    innovation to better business practices, particularly in
    sales and marketing, and he praised the U.S. model of
    perfecting product designs in the market, as opposed to the
    European preference of the laboratory.  While Secretary Snow
    cautioned against government attempts to pick winners in the
    market, he ventured that the key to economic prosperity
    rested with countries like the United States that fostered a
    culture of innovation and entrepreneurship.

    ¶11.  (U) Secretary Snow,s classroom discussion with
    students, professors, and administrators at Dublin City
    University (DCU) was a venue for further discussion on the
    role of innovation, entrepreneurship, and academia in
    strengthening the Irish economy.  The event took place at
    DCU,s "Invent Center," which serves as a business incubator
    for student entrepreneurs and community start-up companies.
    Secretary Snow highlighted the centrality of education and

    SIPDIS
    intellectual capital to the modern, knowledge-based economy,
    and he explained that to embrace a market economy was to
    embrace ever-changing needs for new ideas and skills.  He
    also noted the difficulties that economists had encountered
    in finding ways to capture creativity, "that spark," in
    modeling economic activity.  DCU president Ferdinand von
    Prondzynski commented that the university had encountered a
    similar challenge, but espoused the belief that
    entrepreneurship could be taught, in the same way as poetry,
    painting, and other modes of creativity.  Prondzynski also
    stressed that innovation meant little without business
    skills, and he cited DCU requirements for students to
    establish relationships Irish entrepreneurs who had both
    succeeded and failed in bringing new ideas to the market.

    --------------------------------
    Participants in the "Architect"
    Discussions with Secretary Snow
    -------------------------------
    ¶12.  (U) Participants in the Ambassador,s November 14 dinner
    for Secretary Snow were: Charlie McCreevy, EU
    Commissioner-designate and former Irish Finance Minister;
    Dermot Desmond, financier; Eoin O,Driscoll, Chairman of
    Forfas and the Enterprise Strategy Group; Padraig White,
    former CEO of the Industrial Development Authority; and
    Padraig O,huiginn, Former Secretary General in the Office of
    the Taoiseach.  Attendees at the November 15 Ulster Bank
    lunch were: Ray McSharry, former EU Commisioner and Minister
    of Finance; Lochlann Quinn, co-founder of Glen Dimplex; Peter
    Cassells, former Secretary General of the Irish Congress of
    Trade Unions; Albert Reynolds, former Prime Minister
    (Taoiseach); Allan Gray, Chairman of Indecon Economic
    Consulting; Willie Walsh, CEO of Aer Lingus; Bill Harris,
    National Science Foundation Director; and Cormack McCarthy,
    David Pierce, and Michael Torpey of the Ulster Bank.

    ¶13.  (U) This cable has been cleared by Treasury DAS Nancy Lee
    KENNY

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