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### Viewing cable 04ANKARA6678, TURKEY STEAM ENERGY CONFERENCE IN ISTANBUL -

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04ANKARA6678 | 2004-12-02 09:36 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ankara

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 006678

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    USDOC FOR NEWMAN AND FOR 4212/ITA/MAC/OEURA/CPD/DDEFALCO

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ENRG EPET EINV EWWT TU
    SUBJECT: TURKEY STEAM ENERGY CONFERENCE IN ISTANBUL -
    LIBERALIZATION AND REGIONAL CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

    REF: A. ANKARA 6195
         ¶B. ANKARA 6479

    ¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: A well-attended energy conference in
    Turkey provided expressions of commitment on the part of the
    government to move forward on energy liberalization, but
    failure to articulate next policy, legislative, and
    regulatory steps.  The private sector is eager to move ahead
    and take advantage of potential investment opportunities, but
    is frustrated that the liberalization process and timing
    remain unclear.  Conflict between the Energy Ministry and the
    Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA) contribute to the
    lack of clarity.  Because of long lead times for energy
    project finance and construction, Turkey may face a shortage
    of electric power generation capacity in 3-5 years if it
    fails to foster a positive investment environment now.  END
    SUMMARY.

    ¶2.  (SBU) Embassy Energy Officer David Young and Economic
    Specialist Aysem Sargin attended the fourth STEAM (Strategic
    and Technical Economic Research Center) sponsored "Energy
    Arena" in Istanbul November 23-24.  STEAM has established
    itself as one of the premier sponsors of energy sector
    conferences in Turkey and the session was well attended by
    high-level officials from the GOT (Energy Minister,
    Undersecretary, Dep U/S, MFA, TPAO, etc.) and the private
    sector (Shell, BP, Chevron-Texaco, etc.)  Overall, government
    officials expressed commitment to energy liberalization,
    while private sector reps expressed strong interest, but
    frustration with continued questions on timing and process.
    Regional issues, including East-West Corridor and Iraq
    linkages were major topics.

    Electricity
    -----------

    ¶3.  (SBU) The biggest domestic issues on participants' minds
    were the prospective liberalization and privatization of
    Turkey's electric and natural gas distribution networks.
    While Turkish officials stressed their commitment to move
    forward (Budak Dilli, DG Energy Affairs, MENR, was
    particularly impassioned on the topic), private sector
    players were frustrated by the many delays and lack of
    clarity.  Despite twenty municipal distribution networks for
    electricity distribution having been identified, there have
    still been legal and regulatory delays.  The World Bank
    electricity liberalization road map was viewed as very
    helpful, but again implementation has been delayed because of
    gaps in legal and regulatory underpinning.  Many licenses
    have been granted for electricity production, but, here too,
    there have been delays in implementation.  There was great
    interest from the private sector in possible privatization of
    EUAS (the state electricity production company), but still
    questions on process and timing.  (The most likely approach
    would be bundling of small, regional groups of diverse energy
    type facilities.)

    Natural Gas ) Volumes Not Contracts Transfer?
    ---------------------------------------------

    ¶4.  (SBU) In his speech, Energy Minister Guler emphasized
    increased interest in renewables and nuclear (he recently
    announced a desire to put in place multiple power plants), as
    well as the recent tenders for transfer of BOTAS natural gas
    take or pay purchase contracts to private companies (septel).
     Although there are press reports of significant interest,
    private comments indicated skepticism on whether the tenders
    will succeed and questions about the exact rules and process.
     In effect, the current tender is for the "right to
    negotiate" with BOTAS' purchase contract sales partners
    (i.e., Russia) without knowing confidential existing contract
    terms.  Many observers expect legal obstacles may force
    Turkey to opt later to selling gas volumes via tenders,
    rather than the underlying gas contracts.  Public expression
    of interest may be jockeying for the presumed next step of
    transfer of gas volumes.  There were also concerns expressed
    in the corridor about Bosphorus Gas having insider knowledge
    or position in the tender process because of significant
    ownership from Gazprom (forty percent).

    Russia Connection
    -----------------

    ¶5.  (SBU) BP officials also privately expressed concerns that
    some expiring Russian contracts might be extended,
    potentially putting at risk the procurement of Shah Deniz gas
    from Azerbaijan.  Separately, the GOT has tendered nineteen
    contracts for municipal natural gas distribution.  Russian
    entities have indicated interest in these.  (Note: There will
    be incentives for GOT and GOR to find energy deliverables in
    advance of President Putin visit December 5-6.  End Note)
    Although, the natural gas distribution privatization process
    is still underway; many contacts felt  pre-qualification
    procedures have not been sufficient, so it is unclear if
    early winners can achieve their commitments.  (Note: The
    World Bank and GOT released a natural gas sector strategy
    paper in September, citing domestic liberalization as
    critical from a number of perspectives, including realization
    of regional transit opportunities.)

    Electricity Export to Iraq
    --------------------------

    ¶6.  (SBU) Many discussions moved beyond domestic
    liberalization to regional issues.  Energy Undersecretary
    Demirbilek privately blamed EMRA (Energy Market Regulatory
    Authority) for the Karadeniz Company's problems in exporting
    electricity to northern Iraq, including excessive costs for
    purchases of electricity off the grid (Ref A).  (Note: There
    was general and frequent "bashing" of EMRA at the conference.
     End Note.)  Karadeniz was the main conference sponsor, which
    earned them a seat on a panel to describe their challenges in
    implementing their "power for friendship" program with Iraq.

    Bosphorus Bypass
    ----------------

    ¶7.  (SBU) MFA DDG for Energy Hakki Akil used the conference
    as a platform to articulate the Bosphorus bypass dilemma and
    the value of "Voluntary Principles" as a constructive
    public/private approach for encouraging transit of oil
    through pipelines "as long as it is commercially feasible",
    as an alternative to shipping through the Turkish Straits.
    While Akil applauded the new VTS (Vessel Transit System) as a
    great addition for safety, he emphasized the importance of
    working together to realize oil bypass pipeline solutions.
    As an example of a country limiting tanker traffic for safety
    reasons, he pointed out that Italy has forbidden passage of
    oil tankers between Sardinia and the mainland.  Akil
    rearticulated support for Samsun-Ceyhan as the best bypass
    option, given existing infrastructure and environmental
    concerns about trans-Thrace proposals.  There were some
    private comments in support of the Voluntary Principles, but
    also questions about next steps (who actually signs? how to
    engage Russians?).  On another topic, Akil noted that in
    order to avoid succumbing to the pressure of connecting to
    the large gas reserves in Iran, there should be collective
    efforts to link with Turkmenistan.

    ¶8.  (SBU) In BP rep Mike Bilbo's public comments, he stressed
    the environmental standards set by BTC, noting the intense
    NGO pressure which had come to bear on the project.  Citing
    Alaska, he noted that using pipelines over tankers was
    becoming a more accepted solution for moving large quantities
    of crude oil to markets.  With respect to BTC, he noted that
    there was no room to relax, now that construction was nearly
    complete; the project would be operational fifty plus years
    and would require consistent diplomatic efforts.

    ¶9.  (SBU) In an opening speech and CNN Turk interview, Ankara
    Energy Officer Young stressed the consistency of U.S.
    regional energy policy, strong support for liberalization and
    contract sanctity and a Bosphorus bypass (but we don't pick
    the winner; GOT should move forward on awarding timely
    permits to let investors take on the risk), and strong U.S.
    opposition to links to Iran.  Apart from an "agreement to
    disagree" on policy with respect to Iran, there was broad
    acceptance of U.S. regional energy policy and recognition of
    the value of the U.S. as an actor in moving the East-West
    Energy Corridor forward.

    ¶10.  (SBU) Comment: Although interested in liberalization and
    privatization opportunities, companies are skeptical and
    frustrated about delays in filling in the blanks of the new
    regulatory and legal structure for the energy sector.  Lack
    of clarity resulting in further delays in liberalization is a
    clear disincentive to new investment.  This could put Turkey
    at risk in 3-5 years when the GOT and most observers estimate
    that there will be a shortage of electricity generation
    supply in Turkey.  End Comment.

    ¶11.  (U) Baghdad minimize considered. EDELMAN

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