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### Viewing cable 05FRANKFURT1092, International Use of the Euro - Broadly Stable;

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05FRANKFURT1092 | 2005-02-04 15:56 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Consulate Frankfurt

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 FRANKFURT 001092

    SIPDIS

    SENSATIVE

    STATE FOR EUR PDAS RIES, EB, EUR/AGS, AND EUR/ERA
    STATE PASS FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD
    STATE PASS NSC
    TREASURY FOR DAS LEE
    TREASURY ALSO FOR ICN COX, HULL
    PARIS ALSO FOR OECD
    TREASURY FOR OCC RUTLEDGE, MCMAHON

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EFIN EUN
    SUBJECT: International Use of the Euro - Broadly Stable;
    Some Increase In Euro Trade Invoicing

    T-IA-F-05-0006

    This cable is sensitive but unclassified.  Not/not for
    Internet distribution.

    ¶1.   (SBU) Summary:  The European Central Bank's (ECB)
      annual publication on the international role of the Euro
      concludes that the euro's role in international capital and
      foreign exchange markets and use as an international reserve
      currency "has remained largely stable," while "there have
      been signs of increasing use" of the euro for settling or
      invoicing trade.  This rather unexceptional conclusion, akin
      to a "dog bites man," story sharply contrasts to the
      attention-grabbing headlines "Central Banks Shunning
      Dollar," proclaiming that a survey of central banks revealed
      many had increased their euro exposure.  The survey,
      however, was only "impressionistic," in the ECB's assessment
      and did not provide any hard data documenting any increases.

    ¶2.   (SBU) Notable features of the ECB's report are that:
      (a) the Euro's share of official exchange reserves increased
      slightly, from 19.3% in 2002 to 19.7% in 2003, nearly two-
      thirds of the increase in euro holdings was due to an
      increase in the euro's price in relation to special drawing
      rights (SDRs); (b) the share of exports and imports invoiced
      or settled in euros has increased in trade with countries
      outside the euro area; and (c) the euro denominated
      international debt securities market remains robust, with
      the stock of euro international debt instruments holding a
      steady 31% market share.  The ECB's report identifies merger
      and acquisition activities and firms' strategic objective to
      broaden their investor base as main reasons for firms,
      including many from the US, using the euro international
      bond market. End Summary.

    International Role of the Euro
    ------------------------------

    ¶3.   (SBU) Each year the ECB publishes a report tracking the
      international use of the euro.  This year's report,
      published in January 2005, covers the period mid-2003 to mid-
      ¶2004.  The ECB's policy is not to encourage the use of the
      euro outside the euro area, but considers developments in
      the use of the euro as "the outcome of decisions taken by
      market participants."  The ECB's success in maintaining the
      value of the euro contributes to market participants'
      perception of the euro, particularly as a store of value.

    ¶4.   (SBU) Since its introduction the euro quickly assumed
      the role of its legacy currencies in finance and trade.
      With the advent of one currency in the euro area, at a
      stroke its capital markets were broadened and deepened, at
      least in theory.  Some accession candidate countries, now
      the new member states, pegged their currencies to the euro,
      increased their trade with euro area businesses, and, when
      the euro cash conversion occurred, saw savers convert their
      holdings of Deutsche Marks to euro bank accounts.   Earlier
      ECB reports document this one time shift.

    ¶5.   (SBU) This year's report suggests that after the first
      rush of conversions, activity has become less dramatic.
      Broadly speaking, the report shows a "significant degree of
      stability" in the use of the euro by non-euro area
      residents.  There is some evidence that the euro is
      increasingly being used in settling or invoicing trades with
      non-euro area countries in neighboring regions, although
      some of the shift could be an improvement in data collection
      by national authorities.

    International Reserve Currency
    ------------------------------

    ¶6.   (SBU) Global reserve assets totaled USD 3, 014 billion
      as of the end of 2003, an increase of 26% from the previous
      year.  The share of euro-denominated assets of total foreign
      exchange reserves edged up from 19.3% to 19.7% over this
      same time period, driven by an increase in euro-denominated
      holdings in developing/emerging market countries (17.9% to
      18.9% share).  The share of euro-denominated foreign
      exchange reserves of industrial countries' total reserve
      assets declined from 21.3% to 20.9%.  The share of USD
      denominated foreign exchange reserves rose slightly, from
      63.5% to 63.8%.

    ¶7.   (SBU) One interesting feature was the role that price
      changes played during the recent reporting period.  The
      International Monetary Fund (IMF) tallies foreign exchange
      reserves in special drawing rights (SDRs), whose value is
      derived from a basket of currencies. Therefore, when a
      currency appreciates against the SDR, the SDR price of
      assets denominated in that currency also rise.  In 2003 the
      amount of euros in official holdings of foreign exchange
      increased by 55 billion SDRs, but 34 billion of the increase
      was due to a price change.  This reflects the euro
      appreciation and, according to ECB experts, the large stock
      of euro-denominated foreign assets being held as reserves.

    ¶8.   (SBU) The ECB report notes that the amount of USDs in
      official holdings of foreign exchange increased by 161
      billion SDRs.  The increase in quantity (263 billion SDRs)
      more than compensated for the decrease in price (-102 SDRs).
      This large increase in USD denominated holdings reflects, in
      part, macro economic strategy by some Asian countries,
      according to ECB staff, to maintain a stable exchange rate.
      An October 2004 publication of the New York Federal Reserve
      Bank surmises, "The largest USD reserve purchases likely
      came from Japan, China and Taiwan, with India and Korea also
      making sizable purchases."

    ¶9.   (SBU) This relatively mundane picture is contrary to
      the attention-grabbing headlines on January 23 proclaiming
      that central banks are "shunning the US dollar."  Those
      headlines were prompted (or promoted?) by a survey conducted
      by Central Banking Publications.  The survey proclaimed that
      39 of 65 central banks were raising their euro holdings and
      29 were reducing their dollar holdings.

    ¶10.  (SBU) ECB staff, surprised by the report (and summoned
      to brief ECB President Trichet), examined it carefully.  The
      survey results were "impressionistic," in their view, based
      on one question: " Have you increased or decreased exposure
      to a certain currency?"  The survey did not contain any more
      recent information or hard data and reflected views of a
      wide range of banks, from very small to some very large,
      although the largest Asian central banks did not respond to
      the questionnaire, in the ECB staff's assessment.  The ECB
      relies on IMF data to calculate reserves and does not
      collect its own information from central banks.

    Trade :Invoicing and Settling
    -----------------------------

    ¶11.  (SBU) The ECB report notes that the share of the use of
      euro to settle or invoice trades for exports and imports
      outside the euro area has increased, more so for goods than
      for services.  Most dramatic among the increases has been
      for Germany, which had 63% of its exports invoiced/settled
      in euros in 2003 compared to 49% in 2002, and 55% of its
      imports invoiced/settled in euros in 2003 up from 48% the
      previous year.

    ¶12.  (SBU) Germany, France, Italy and Spain all had more
      than 50% of their exports settled/invoiced in euro while
      only Germany and Spain had more than 50% of their imports
      settled in euro. ECB staff observes that this result
      reflects "Grassman's Law" whereby "exporters are typically
      in a better position to enforce their currency preferences"
      than importers.  Of the new member states, the Czech
      Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Slovenia all had more
      than half their exports invoiced/settled in euros (no data
      for Malta and Slovakia).  Candidate countries Bulgaria and
      Romania have better than 60% of their exports
      invoiced/settled in euros.
    ¶13.  (SBU) Reasons for the increase are partially due to new
      data.  The ECB relies on national authorities for this data,
      some of which has become available only recently.  ECB staff
      also suspects valuation has contributed to the increase as
      well as long-term contracts that had been in legacy
      currencies and are now being renewed in euros.  The ECB
      report notes that the use of the euro in trade is
      geographically concentrated in countries neighboring the
      euro area, but also detects "some evidence" of an increase
      use in other countries.  There is, however, a natural
      ceiling to the use of euros in trade, particularly import
      transactions, as certain commodities that are traded on
      exchanges or referenced priced in USD, such as oil.

    ¶14.  (SBU) A recent staff paper of the New York Federal
      Reserve Bank broadly confirms the ECB's findings.  It states
      that the USD is "strongly used on all trade transactions
      with the United States and on other transactions that are
      primarily in goods that are traded on organized exchanges or
      that are referenced priced."  The staff paper reports that
      USD invoicing accounts for more than 50% of exports and
      imports in the Asian countries of Japan, Korea, Malaysia and
      Thailand as well as Australia.  Greece was the lone euro
      area country in this category, most likely due to the
      predominance of maritime shipping in its trade.  However,
      the NY Fed paper notes that the share of exports and imports
      of goods that are traded on organized exchanges or reference
      priced has declined as trade in manufactures has increased.
      Thus, the paper concludes that these declines suggest that
      there has been a steady decline in USD invoicing via this
      channel.

    Debt Securities
    ---------------

    ¶15.  (SBU) The ECB uses a narrow definition of international
      securities, referring to issuance in a currency other that
      the currency of the country in which the borrower resides.
      Using this measure, the stock of outstanding international
      debt securities is USD 5,042 billion, 31% of which are
      denominated in euros, 42% in USDs.  These shares have been
      steady for the last few years, after the euro legacy
      currency share climbed quickly after its introduction in
      1999, gaining nearly 10% in market share by 2001 while the
      USD share eased 2%.  Using a "global measure" of debt
      securities that includes securities denominated in the home
      currency and targets the international and domestic market
      shows that the USD account for 43% of USD 53,000 billion in
      outstanding debt securities while the euro accounts for
      25.6%.

    ¶16.  (SBU) The ECB explains in another report on the euro
      bond market reasons for the rapid gains of the issuance of
      euro denominated international debt securities.  It explains
      this development as a product of efficiency gains brought
      about by the growing size of the euro area financial
      markets, supported by the creation of payment and security
      settlement systems and a unified money market, as well as
      increased competition from non-euro area underwriters that
      drove down underwriting fees. In a special section of this
      year's report, the ECB analyzes in detail the issuance
      activity by private entities and concludes that is it often
      associated with merger and acquisition activity or with the
      strategic objective of broadening the investor base.

    ¶17.  (SBU) The largest issuers in this market are European
      entities, especially UK firms, accounting for 44% of the
      total in outstanding international debt instruments.  US
      residents account for about 20% of the issuance activity.
      Large issuers from the United States include Federal Home
      Loan Mortgage (Freddie Mac), Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs,
      General Motors Acceptance Corporation and GE Capital. On
      average, around 80% of these debt issues are initially
      purchased by European investors.

    Foreign Exchange
    ----------------

    ¶18.  (SBU) According to the 2004 Triennial Survey conducted
      by the Bank of International Settlements, the euro was
      involved in 37% of all foreign exchange transactions in
      2004, a decrease of less that one percentage point compared
      to its share in 2001.  Average daily turnover in the forex
      market is estimated to be USD 1,880 billion.   76% of all
      global activity involving the euro was in trading vis--vis
      the USD.

    Use As Parallel Currency
    ------------------------

    ¶19.  (SBU) Residents in some countries outside the euro area
      hold assets in euro denominated assets, mostly as cash or
      euro denominated bank accounts.  In countries neighboring
      the euro area, foreign cash held in legacy currencies,
      predominately Deutsche Marks, had been converted into euro
      cash notes or deposits.  By the end of 2002, two years after
      the conversion to euro cash notes, the flow of euro
      banknotes shipped to destinations outside the euro area has
      stabilized.  Net shipments of euro banknotes to destinations
      outside the euro area amounted to euro 9.4 billion down from
      euro 14.2 billion in the previous year.  The cumulative
      stock of euro banknotes outside the euro area was euro 45.8
      billion by the end of June 2004 compared to euro 36.4
      billion a year earlier.

    ¶20.  (SBU) The ECB's data showed that Russian businesses and
      households demand euro cash for conducting trade and
      tourism.  However, when some Russian banks faced liquidity
      problems in mid-2004, depositors preferred to exchange their
      ruble deposits into USD cash.

    ¶21.  (SBU) The nations of the former Yugoslavia have a
      significant share of bank deposits denominated in euro.  In
      Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia better than half
      of the total bank deposits are denominated in euros.
      Interestingly, the new member states have a much smaller
      share of euro-denominated deposits with the highest in
      Latvia, at 19.8%.  This suggests that new member states have
      more credible monetary policy that protects the value of
      their local currency.  ECB experts point out that conducting
      monetary policy is rendered more difficult when a large
      share of deposits are denominated in foreign currency.

    ¶22.  (U) This message coordinated with Embassies Berlin, and
    USEU Brussels.

    ¶23.  (U) POC: James Wallar, Treasury Representative, e-mail
    wallarjg2@state.gov; tel. 49-(69)-7535-2431, fax 49-(69)-
    7535-2238

    Bodde

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