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### Viewing cable 05PRETORIA3145, SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05PRETORIA3145 | 2005-08-05 09:54 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Pretoria

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

    050954Z Aug 05

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 003145

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR AF/S/JDIFFILY; AF/EPS; EB/IFD/OMA
    USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/MAC/AME/OA/DIEMOND
    TREASURY FOR OAISA/BARBER/WALKER/JEWELL
    USTR FOR COLEMAN
    LONDON FOR GURNEY; PARIS FOR NEARY

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EINV EFIN ETRD BEXP KTDB PGOV SF
    SUBJECT:  SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER
              August 5 2005 ISSUE

     ¶1. Summary.  Each week, AmEmbassy Pretoria publishes an
     economic newsletter based on South African press reports.
     Comments and analysis do not necessarily reflect the
     opinion of the U.S. Government.  Topics of this week's
     newsletter are:
     -  Recent Inflation Trends Bring Poor Economic Relief;
     -  June's Trade Balance Surplus Eases Concern for Rand;
     -  South Africa's July PMI Record Increase;
     -  S&P Upgrades South Africa's Currency;
     -  Rising Income Creates Potential 1.5 Million Car
     Consumers;
     -  July Slowdown in Car Sales Indicates Possible Market
     Cooling; and
     -  Growth Pause in Current Trading Conditions.
     End Summary.

     RECENT INFLATION TRENDS BRING POOR ECONOMIC RELIEF
     --------------------------------------------- -----

     ¶2.  Between 1998 and 2004, the average inflation rates
     have been higher for the rich than for the poor.  This
     trend, however, looks set to be reversed this year.  Until
     October 2004, there were only two periods when prices were
     rising faster or at the same pace for the country's upper
     expenditure category.  The two rates converged in July
     2001 but then for more than three years the very low
     expenditure group experienced higher inflation, largely
     because of the rand's weakness and food prices increased
     disproportionately more than other goods.  In January
     2002, annual inflation for the lowest income bracket was
     9.1 percent versus 4.1 percent for the most affluent
     group.  The past two years have shown substantial recovery
     in the rand, which appreciated 140 percent against the
     dollar between 2002 and 2004.  In 2005, the rand has shown
     recent weakness, depreciating 14 percent against the
     dollar so far, although the depreciation has been mild
     compared to 2002.  In June 2005, inflation for the very
     low expenditure group was 1.5 percent (y/y) while
     inflation for the high expenditure group reached 2.7
     percent.  Lower food prices explain the much of the
     differential in inflation among expenditure groups.  The
     very poor have seen a real increase in wealth.  In 2005,
     the child welfare and old age grants increased by 5.9
     percent and 5.4 percent respectively, substantially above
     their inflation rate.  Higher fuel prices also helped
     explain the difference in inflation rates as higher income
     groups tend to own vehicles and consume petrol.  Policies
     of government such as inflation targeting and welfare
     spending may begin to bring modest relief to South
     Africa's poor.  The robust rand, however, is also blamed
     for job losses that take their biggest toll on those at
     the low end of the income scale.  Employment numbers from
     the latest March 2005 Labor Force Survey show that the
     South African economy created 500,000 new jobs from March
     ¶2004.  Many of the new jobs are in services, retail and
     construction, which have benefited from lower interest
     rates.  While inflation is generally lower for all income
     groups, the poor seem to be doing better, with price
     increases for lower income groups falling behind welfare
     increases.  Statistics SA has only released consumer
     inflation by income, ranging from very low to very high-
     expenditure groups, since 1997.  Source:  Business Day,
     August 1.

     JUNE'S TRADE BALANCE EASES CONCERN FOR RAND
     -------------------------------------------

     ¶3.  June's trade balance showed a surplus of R1.3 billion,
     in contrast to May's R2.8 billion deficit, according to
     the latest figures released by the South African Revenue
     Service (SARS).  Economists polled by Reuters expected a
     trade deficit of about R1.2 billion in June.  The latest
     trade figures also improved the outlook for the rand and
     interest rates, because of their implications for the
     current account.  A large deficit on the current account,
     amounting to 3.8 percent of GDP in the first quarter, has
     been worrying since it could lead to a weaker rand and
     higher inflation.  An 8.3 percent monthly increase in the
     value of exports explained June's surplus as the value of
     imports declined by 5.8 percent.  Despite this, the
     balance for the year to date remains considerably worse
     than at the same period last year, with a R6.7 billion
     deficit compared with a R2.1 billion shortfall in 2004.
     Source:  Business Day and Business Report, August 1.
     SOUTH AFRICA'S JULY PMI RECORD INCREASE
     ---------------------------------------

     ¶4.  South Africa's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
     increased to an all-time high at 61.7 compared to June's
     59.8, as a weaker currency boosted sales orders, but it
     was too early to call it a recovery for the manufacturing
     sector.  Investec Asset Management head of fixed income
     Andre Roux said the jump in the index was unexpected and
     more readings at higher levels in subsequent months would
     confirm a recovery in manufacturing conditions.  The
     previous record of 60.3 was set in April 2002.  South
     Africa's manufacturing sector contracted by 1.9 percent in
     the first quarter of 2005, for the first time since 2003,
     largely hurt by the strong rand. Manufacturing constitutes
     more than 16 percent of GDP.  The rand has depreciated by
     almost 14 percent against the dollar so far this year, but
     the trend has only put a small reversal into three years
     of straight gains, which have eroded exports.  However,
     June's exports do show recent gains.  The July PMI
     increase was driven by a strong showing in two of the
     PMI's eight sub-indices, measuring business activity and
     new sales orders.  New sales orders climbed to 69 in July
     from 66.3 in June.  Business activity jumped to 69.9 from
     60.3 in June. However, other sub-indices such as
     inventories, suppliers' performance and employment gave up
     some of their June gains.  The seasonally adjusted
     employment index slipped back to 50.1 after rising to
     53.3, but Roux did not believe this began a reversal of an
     upward trend.   If the PMI reading was corroborated in
     next week's manufacturing production figures for June from
     Statistics SA, the release of which coincides with a
     meeting of the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee,
     it might indicate that a manufacturing recovery has
     started.  Source:  Reuters and Business Day, August 2.

     S&P UPGRADES SOUTH AFRICA'S CURRENCY
     ------------------------------------

     ¶5.  International ratings agency Standard & Poor's (S&P)
     has upgraded South Africa's long-term foreign currency
     rating from triple B to triple B plus, putting it three
     levels above the entry-level investment grade rating and
     bringing South Africa to within one notch of the A
     category.  South Africa's foreign rating is now equal to
     Poland and Thailand and is one notch ahead of Mexico.
     S&P's upgrade, prompted by South Africa's stronger
     economic growth prospects and reduced vulnerability to
     external shocks, comes after Moody's, a rival ratings
     firm, upgraded South Africa's credit rating in January
     ¶2005.  The third of the big rating agencies, Fitch, has
     put South Africa on positive ratings watch, indicating an
     upgrade could come later this year.  Sovereign credit
     ratings are a measure of a government's creditworthiness,
     a higher rating implies less risk for investors, so they
     will be willing to accept lower yields on that
     government's debt, making it cheaper for the country and
     its corporations to borrow on local and international
     markets.  S&P credit analysts are confident that South
     Africa's economic growth prospects for this year are even
     better than last year's, expecting the budget deficit to
     remain within the government's medium-term target of 3
     percent of GDP and the general government debt stable at
     40 percent of GDP.  Although government's record of
     economic policy management was very good, there were still
     problems in delivery.  S&P remains concerned about
     unemployment, poverty and income disparity, citing these
     as negative comparisons against its peers.   S&P has
     upgraded South Africa's debt rating four times in the past
     10 years.  Source:  Business Day and Business Report,
     August 2, 2005.

     RISING INCOME CREATES POTENTIAL 1.5 MILLION BLACK CAR
     CONSUMERS
     --------------------------------------------- --------

     ¶6.  According to a Merrill Lynch research report, there is
     a potential market of 1.5 million used and new car black
     consumers due to rising income levels.  Providing vehicle
     finance for households with gross incomes of just over
     R5000 per month ($770 using 6.5 rands per dollar) and
     allowing private leasing could broaden the potential pool
     of vehicle owners.  Only 24 percent of people earning
     between R4000 ($600) and R5999 ($900) per month owned cars
     according to the South African Advertising Research
     Foundation.  The report showed that a pretax salary of
     R5700 a month ($880) would allow someone to buy a used car
     of about R70,000 ($11,000), and R9000 a month ($1400)
     would allow someone to buy a new car for about R110,000
     ($17,000) financed over 54 months.  Even if the gross
     household salary was as low as R5,200 ($800), an
     "innovative" bank could finance the purchase of a vehicle.
     Private leasing could add a further 327,000 potential car
     buyers to the market.  Affordability, or the price of cars
     relative to people's salaries, was also more of a problem
     in South Africa than in other countries, even though cars
     became more affordable between 2003 and 2004, the Merrill
     Lynch report said.  While the report expected car sales to
     slow due to the rise in interest rates it foresaw next
     year, and the resulting lower disposable income, long-term
     vehicle-sales growth should remain strong.  The small
     number of car owners, rising income levels and the poor
     public-transport infrastructure would support vehicle-
     sales growth of between 6 percent and 12 percent a year
     for the next five years.  Merrill Lynch also warned that a
     rise in gasoline prices could derail the positive outlook
     for the vehicle industry.  (Business Day, August 2).

     ¶7.  Comment.  South Africa's car producers are dependent
     on local sales as well as exports.  Car production
     accounts for 7.1 percent of South Africa's economy, making
     it larger than mining.  South Africa produces less than 1
     percent of the global yearly car output. End Comment.

     JULY SLOWDOWN IN CAR SALES INDICATE POSSIBLE MARKET
     COOLING
     --------------------------------------------- ------

     ¶8.  The first signs that South Africa's car sales market
     may be cooling emerged with the release of the latest
     vehicle sales figures, which showed a 6 percent month-on-
     month decline.  However, year-on-year sales by National
     Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa
     (NAAMSA) members rose 19.4 percent in July compared with
     July 2004, slightly below the growth level of about 20
     percent that South African car manufacturers have
     experienced in the past few months.  Economists said that
     the slowdown was in line with expectations of a gradual
     slowdown to continue for the rest of 2005.  New vehicle
     sales showed strong growth in July, reaching 26.5 percent.
     Ford Motor Company asserted that the market was just
     starting to cool, with daily passenger car sales slowing
     to 1,473 in July, compared with 1,530 in June.  Other car
     manufacturers also noticed a leveling of July sales,
     although production and stock constraints rather than
     softening consumer demand were cited as reasons.  Source:
     Business Day, August 3.

     GROWTH PAUSE IN CURRENT TRADING CONDITIONS
     ------------------------------------------

     ¶9.  July's South African current trading conditions
     continue to slow, similar to June's trend, although
     expectations for the next six months remain high.  The
     South African Trade Management Indices (SATMI) consists of
     two trading indices designed to capture current and future
     (next six months) trading environments.  In May 2005,
     current trading conditions reached year-to-date highs and
     the past two months have seen steady declines, with new
     orders showing the largest declines.  July's trade
     activity index reached 47, compared to June's 49.  Monthly
     expectations about future trading conditions have remained
     relatively high (over 60) throughout 2005, unchanged from
     the past two months (June and July).  Source:  Standard
     Bank, SATMI, August 4.

     ¶10.  Comment.  Standard Bank publishes the monthly survey
     consisting of South African Chamber of Business members.
     The threshold value of the index is 50; when above this
     level, trading conditions are seen to have improved
     relative to the previous month, when below, trading
     conditions have deteriorated.  End comment.

     FRAZER

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