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### Viewing cable 05PARIS167, PARIS CLUB -- DECEMBER 2004 TOUR D'HORIZON

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05PARIS167 | 2005-01-10 16:12 | 2011-08-24 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Paris

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 20 PARIS 000167

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    STATE FOR EB/IFD
    TREASURY FOR DO/IDD AND OUSED/IMF
    SECDEF FOR USDP/DSAA
    PASS EXIM FOR CLAIMS -- EDELARIVA
    PASS USDA FOR CCC -- ALEUNG/DERICKSON/KCHADWICK
    PASS USAID FOR CLAIMS
    PASS DOD FOR DSCS -- PBERG

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EFIN ECON EAID XM XA XH XB XF FR
    SUBJECT: PARIS CLUB -- DECEMBER 2004 TOUR D'HORIZON

    SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR INTERNET
    DISTRIBUTION

    --------
    SUMMARY
    --------

    ¶1. (U) Following are summaries of country discussions
    during the December 14, 2004 Paris Club session.  The
    Paris Club's President, Jean-Pierre Jouyet, chaired the
    session.  Staff represented the Secretariat since
    Secretary General (SecGen) Emmanuel Moulin suffered an

    SIPDIS
    unexpected medical emergency.  Representatives of non-
    Paris Club members Brazil, Israel and Korea attended
    discussions on those countries to which they are
    creditors.  Congo Brazzaville negotiation reported
    septel.  The next session of the Paris Club is scheduled
    for the week of January 10, 2005.

    ¶2. (U) NOTE: INDIVIDUAL CREDITOR POSITIONS REPORTED IN
    THIS MESSAGE SHOULD BE TREATED AS "PARIS CLUB
    CONFIDENTIAL" AND NOT/NOT DISCUSSED WITH DEBTOR COUNTRY

    SIPDIS
    REPRESENTATIVES, NOR WITH NON-PARIS CLUB PARTICIPANTS.

    ¶3. (SBU) Discussed in this session:

    Angola -- IMF Update (Brazil)
    Argentina -- Perspectives for upcoming negotiation
           (Israel)
    China -- creditor status
    Congo (Brazzaville) -- upcoming negotiation (Brazil)
    Djibouti -- IMF update
    Dominican Republic -- IMF Update, comparability of
         treatment issues, review of arrears
    Haiti -- IMF update
    Honduras -- IMF update
    Iraq -- IMF update, EDR tables
    Kenya - IMF update
    Kyrgyzstan - debt sustainability analysis (Turkey)
    Nigeria - 2005 debt repayment schedule (Brazil)
    Peru - - buyback, Secretariat report (Brazil)
    Poland -- prepayments (Brazil)
    Russia -- buyback proposal
    Sierra Leone - agreement extension
    Sudan -- IMF update

    ¶4. (U) ACTION/FOLLOW-UP/UPCOMING ITEMS

    Congo (Brazzaville) -- debt relief negotiation --
    December 2004 session

    Methodology -- Possible publication of rules concerning
    buybacks and prepayments

    -------
    ANGOLA
    -------
    ¶5. (SBU) The Secretariat said that it had not yet been
    able to talk with the Angolan Minister of Finance (as
    agreed upon at the November session), and will try again
    in January.  The IMF reported that after the staff visit
    to Angola in November, although some progress had been
    made, data issues remain.  The GoA is unable or unwilling
    to share information about its offshore oil accounts.
    These are not reported as part of their reserves, but the
    IMF suspects the total roughly equals existing reserves.
    If the GoA shares the information, then the IMF would
    visit in January 2005, which could lead to Article IV
    discussions at the Board in February.  The GoA also held
    bilateral discussions with Hungary and Bulgaria, which
    appear to have involved debt-rescheduling negotiations,
    not merely data reconciliation.  The World Bank reported
    on a memorandum of understanding with the UNDP, and
    commented that a precondition for a donors' conference
    would be the signing (not implementation) of a Staff
    Monitored Program (SMP) with the IMF, and finalization of
    a poverty reduction strategy paper (PRSP).  The objective
    of such a conference would not be to collect pledges, but
    to get Angola to get used to multi-year programming.  The
    GoA needs to have a longer-term vision.  The Bank will
    continue for the next 18 months an interim support
    strategy.  Last week it concluded in Paris negotiation
    about a loan of USD 200 million, with a board date for
    approval of Feb 11.

    ¶6.  (SBU) The Spanish delegate thanked the IMF for its
    update, and offered to help the Secretariat contact
    Angolan officials.

    ¶7. (SBU) The Chair noted the continuing desire to engage
    the Angolans, welcomed the Spanish offer of assistance,
    and promised to report results at the next meeting.

    ----------
    ARGENTINA
    ----------
    ¶8. (SBU) The Chair reported on his informal visit to the
    Argentine authorities (in his capacity as Ambassador, not
    as Paris Club President), in which the Argentineans urged
    creditors to be more flexible and creative.  The IMF
    confirmed, however, that the GoA does not want another
    IMF program; it just wants to repay the IMF as soon as
    possible and be done with it.  This creates the tactical
    problem that the GoA may seek to approach the Paris Club
    without an IMF program.  It is up to the creditor
    countries to decide how to handle that possible scenario,
    but working in tandem has generally been the best
    approach in the past.  As for the private sector, the
    debt exchange has been pushed forward from last month to
    February 25, 2005.  The GoA expects a high rate of
    participation.  Structural reforms are stalled.

    ¶9. (SBU) The World Bank rep said the Board approved a
    loan on December 7 of USD 200 million for provincial
    services to reactivate the economy.  The Board did so
    only with great reluctance, because of its concerns about
    debt levels and structural reforms.  The rest of the Bank
    programs are on hold.  The rate of net lending flows in
    2005 probably will be just under a half billion USD to
    Argentina; with an IMF program the net flow would be
    slightly positive to the Bank.

    ¶10. (SBU) The UK rep argued that although conditionality
    is important, an IMF program is just a means to an end
    and perhaps the Paris Club should consider other means,
    citing Nigeria as an example.  In the case of Argentina,
    however, no conditionality would exist absent an IMF
    program; therefore, UK opposed any restructuring outside
    of a Fund program.  Germany answered that in the absence
    of progress on the IMF program, the Paris Club should
    send a strong letter requesting repayment, complaining
    that GOA's two years of increasing arrears amounted to an
    'indirect rescheduling' of its Paris Club debt.  The
    USDEL agreed to send a letter.  Italy agreed to send a
    letter, but arguing that the time is not right, suggested
    that perhaps January would be better.  Japan said it
    would join any consensus.  The Netherlands noted that it
    had been pushing for a letter since August, and fully
    supports sending one because it doubts that the private
    sector deal will ever materialize.

    ¶11.  (SBU)  The Chair proposed that the Secretariat would
    circulate a draft letter, reminding the GoA about its
    repayment obligations and that if it wants a debt deal it
    needs an IMF program.  The Chair plans to send the letter
    in January.

    -----
    CHINA
    -----
    ¶12. (SBU)  Spain asked for China's inclusion on the
    agenda, in order for the Club to consider the issue of
    China's relationship with the Paris Club and a possible
    future membership.  Countries agreed that a first step
    would be for the Secretariat to gather publicly available
    individual country data on China's role as a creditor.
    Japan raised the issue of China's Export Bank's loans to
    Angola as an example.  Germany pointed out that China is
    a WTO but not OECD member, the opposite of Russia, and
    said China is a major case and its membership in the Club
    will definitely be a political matter for the Club.  The
    Germany rep said that China had approached the Club very
    informally in 1999 on its principles and procedures.  The
    Chinese had in the last few days approached Germany via
    their Embassy to ask about Germany's opinion of a Chinese
    membership in the Club (UK and Russia later indicated
    they also had been asked the same question fairly
    recently).  He asked the IMF for information on China's
    claims, because to be a Paris Club member a country must
    have "substantial" claims.  The UK noted that China is a
    very active creditor in Africa and Latin America.  The
    USDEL suggested-and the Chair agreed--that China might be
    invited to the Paris Club informational meeting (see
    "Iraq" below) discussion to be set up for non-Paris Club
    creditors of Iraq.

    ¶13. (SBU) The IMF said that the Chinese had not raised
    Paris Club membership during the Fund's most recent
    mission (which left December 7).  The Chinese are a very
    active creditor, having forgiven $1.3 billion of all debt
    to 31 African HIPC and low-income countries.  He said the
    IMF could include a questionnaire on China's creditor
    information during its Article IV consultations in April
    2005, and pointed out a number of public sources the
    Secretariat could use in gathering data on China's

    SIPDIS
    creditor role.  The World Bank also offered to help the
    Secretariat gather data on developing country claims.

    SIPDIS
    The Bank pointed out that notwithstanding its growing
    creditor role, China remains the Bank's largest borrower
    at $21 billion (half in IBRD exposure, although the IBRD
    share is declining over time due to early repayments in
    2002, 2003, and 2004).  China is still an active
    borrower, at about $1.2 billion a year.

    ¶14.  (SBU) The Chair said it would report to members the
    results of its informal findings on China's creditor
    role, so that members could then consider next steps.

    -------------------
    CONGO (BRAZZAVILLE)
    -------------------
    ¶15.  (SBU) The IMF said the Board approved on December 6
    a three-year PRGF for USD 84 million that is in line with
    the priorities (decrease poverty, increase oil
    transparency) identified in the GoC's PRSP.  2002 arrears
    totaled CFA 258 billion to the Paris Club, while the PRGF
    assumes a payment of CFA 106 billion in the first year.
    The IMF research department just revised downward
    projected oil prices, which brings the IMF assumptions
    very close to where they were in August with WEO
    projections.  The World Bank noted that the Board
    approved a USD 30 million economic recovery credit last
    week; generally the Bank is pleased with the GoC progress
    in repaying arrears.

    ¶16.  (SBU) The Secretariat distributed the Congolese debt
    reduction proposal, and commented on two technical
    details - additional conditions for rescheduling post-
    ccod debt treated in the 1996 agreed minute, and a 5-year
    reprofiling of post-ccod debt.  Russia said it is not
    comfortable with the request for a 5-year reprofiling.
    Denmark requested the agreed minute include a de minimus
    clause, which Japan supported.  The French suggested a
    clawback clause.  The UK expressed uncertainty about a
    clawback.  Germany supported the Russian position, and
    suggested payment be made in one year.  The USDEL
    questioned whether a clawback clause would be worth the
    effort, since most debtors refuse them and since they are
    complex, but noted flexibility within the range between 1
    to 5 years for a reprofiling.

    ¶17.  (SBU) The Chair confirmed the Paris Club would open
    the negotiation with the GoC on December 15.

    --------
    DJIBOUTI
    --------
    ¶18. (SBU)  The Chair reminded creditors that only the
    first phase of Djibouti's most recent Agreed Minute was
    ever implemented (from October 1999 to end-August 2000).
    The IMF said that Djibouti's performance under its SMP
    started in April 2004 was `quite weak,' with only limited
    progress on structural reforms.  The authorities had
    hoped the SMP would lay the basis for a PRGF, but agreed
    to ask for an extension of the SMP in order to create a
    longer track record (a minimum of two quarters of
    successful implementation) for the PRGF.  During the IMF
    November mission, the Minister of Finance had lectured
    the Fund on raising the issue of Djibouti's arrears with
    certain Paris Club creditors.  The IMF should not be
    involved; instead, creditors should be discussing their
    disputes regarding arrears directly with the government.
    Furthermore, the Minister said, those countries (Italy,
    Spain) were continuing to give grants to Djibouti,
    implying that they would not be doing so if they had a
    `real' problem with the Government.  Italy and Spain
    countered that the Government had refused to deal with it
    in good faith, and in Italy's case, the issue was not a
    dispute over the debt but rather a dispute over the debt
    treatment given by the Paris Club: the Minister had told
    them it was "unfair" that Djibouti was not a HIPC
    country.  The World Bank representative said progress on
    its overall Country Assistance Strategy was satisfactory,
    with its portfolio strengthened and improved; a new CAS
    will come before the Bank board in January 2005.

    ¶19. (SBU) The Chair indicated that he would send a firm
    letter to the Government reaffirming Paris Club
    solidarity.

    ------------------
    DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
    ------------------
    ¶20. (SBU)  The Technical Secretary of the Finance
    Ministry of the GODR met with the Secretariat the week
    before the December session to explain the DR's
    comparability of treatment (CoT) strategy, showing them a
    copy of a letter sent only to DR creditors (Club members
    did not see a copy of the letter).  The latest CoT
    attempt relies on a bond swap, the results of which will
    be known in the coming months.  This means the DR will
    miss the end-December 2004 deadline set in the April 2004
    AM.  The DR asked the Secretariat for more time; while
    the 2004 AM has a suspension clause, members did not
    believe it was a good idea to exercise it after the
    Secretariat posed the question.

    SIPDIS

    ¶21. (SBU) The new two-year IMF SBA program for 2005/06 is
    being presented this week, the IMF rep indicated.  The
    Fund said that it would ask members for financing
    assurances at the January session instead of at the
    December session.  Italy said it has post-ccod arrears on
    ODA debt of $2.3 million; it also expressed concern about
    the CoT situation.  The USDEL approved of the performance
    tripwires established in the upcoming SBA, and on the
    question of post-ccod arrears, acknowledged it was a
    serious problem but did not support annulling the 2004
    AM, instead suggesting that the Club offer financing
    assurances for just one year.  This would meet the
    members' concerns over CoT, permit the IMF program to go
    forward, and motivate the DR to work towards CoT.
    Germany and Spain supported the US idea on one-year
    assurances, and the IMF confirmed that the two-year
    program could go forward with assurances for just the
    first year (the DR would need to return to the Club for
    negotiations before the second year).  Germany added that
    the DR should clear post-ccod and interest arrears before
    the next round of negotiations and that creditors should
    continue to ask for a new DSA.  The IMF said the DR could
    return to the Club in March, and by that time the results
    of the bond offer should be clear.

    ¶22. (SBU) The Chair closed the DR session by saying it
    would circulate before Christmas a draft letter, which
    would insist on CoT compliance and remind the DR of
    outstanding arrears.  He said the Club could do one year
    financing assurances, and between January and March
    members could consider any pre-conditions for
    negotiations.

    -----
    HAITI
    -----
    ¶23. (SBU) The IMF is seeking management approval for an
    Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance (EPCA) arrangement.
    There could be a meeting in January after which things
    would move quickly.  SMP performance is satisfactory, but
    some structural commitments are delayed.  The stock of
    arrears to bilateral creditors is USD 28.5 million to
    France, Italy and Spain, with the bulk of it owed to
    France.  In designing the EPCA facility, the IMF had
    assumed that Haiti would remain current on payments to
    those countries that are providing substantial financial
    support over the EPCA period, e.g., the USG and Canada,
    which are together providing USD 250 million, far in
    excess of the USD 2 million of scheduled debt service to
    those two donors.  The IMF is asking creditors if they
    are willing to go along with a debt service payment
    moratorium, or provide aid to cover payments due, as a
    positive signal to Haiti until the time that a new
    program is available.  The World Bank reported on a USD
    12 million budget recovery credit, and a USD 73 million
    package to be presented to the Board on January 6.  The
    Bank strategy is to provide IDA intervention in the short
    term to restore institutional credibility.  The USD 73
    million is about half the IDA financing pledged by the
    Bank, but is contingent on Haiti clearing USD 52 million
    in IDA arrears.

    ¶24. (SBU) Italy inquired about the French position, and
    although it does not have the resources of the US/Canada,
    it wants to help and so in principle can agree to a
    payment moratorium.  Spain pointed out that the Paris
    Club normally keeps a clear separation between financing
    aid and debt servicing.  New money is no alternative to
    debt treatment.  It expressed surprise about being asked
    for aid today, but will get an answer within a week.

    --------
    HONDURAS
    --------
    ¶25. (SBU)  The Secretariat put Honduras on the December
    agenda, to see whether after the IMF report the Club
    would wish to invite Honduras for Completion Point (CP)
    in spring 2005.  The IMF rep said Honduras was broadly on
    track with its PRGF according to a review done in
    November, and was doing a good job in meeting its HIPC
    trigger conditions.  A team was in Honduras working on a
    DSA for HIPC completion point; a Board meeting is planned
    for March 2005, with a possible CP for end-March 2005.
    He envisaged no need for topping up.  The World Bank
    concurred with the IMF, and said its Board has scheduled
    to discuss Honduras' HIPC CP during the second half of
    March 2005.  The Secretariat said given the March CP, it
    would sometime early next year start collecting the data
    call.

    ----
    IRAQ
    ----
    ¶26. (SBU) The Chair stated that two issues remain from
    the last negotiation: the calculation of how to achieve
    the 60 percent reduction in the second tranche, and
    comparability of treatment.  The IIG has begun talks with
    non-Paris Club creditors, but there appears to be a need
    for an educational campaign.  In that vein, the Chair has
    received a letter from the Kuwait Fund asking for details
    of the debt deal.  The Chair asked for reaction to the
    idea of the Secretariat organizing an informational
    meeting in Paris.

    ¶27. (SBU)  The IMF reported that a mission had just left
    Amman on Saturday after meeting with IIG officials to
    assess the 2005 Iraq budget.  Policy discussions will be
    held December 18.  Information is still only slowly
    trickling in, so the IMF is unable to judge EPCA
    performance.  The 2005 budget appears to be in line with
    the EPCA, but questions have arisen about the concrete
    measures on domestic petrol subsidies and domestic debt
    management.  The IMF understands that the IIG has begun
    contacting non-Paris Club creditors among the Gulf States
    and some eastern European countries.  The World Bank rep
    said donor funds of 225 million for 2004 have almost
    completely been allocated.

    ¶28. (SBU) Russia asked a technical question about the
    calculation of the appropriate market rate after 23
    years, contained in the Secretariat working paper.  The
    USDEL noted that the USG has the same question as Russia
    and, while noting the 1994 working paper that serves as a
    precedent, questioned whether this was a sound
    methodology.  On comparability of treatment, the USDEL
    welcomed the willingness of the Secretariat to engage in
    a pedagogical exercise.  The USDEL mentioned that it
    plans to meet with the IIG in December, and hopefully
    sign its bilateral agreement (note: the bilateral debt
    treatment was signed December 17 in Washington).  The
    Netherlands requested that the working paper use a
    December 31, 2004 date for budgetary purposes, as it has
    already budgeted for debt relief this year.  The
    Secretariat, noting that it had not yet widely

    SIPDIS
    distributed the 1994 working paper addressing the
    appropriate market rate, defended the methodology, to
    which the Russian del proffered his support and said he
    would not be able to accept any changes to the working
    paper.  The USDEL noted its need to consult in DC.
    ¶29. (SBU) The Chair said it would provide information to
    the Kuwait Fund as requested, and would proceed to
    organize its informational meeting.

    -----
    KENYA
    -----
    ¶30.  The Secretariat indicated a successful IMF Board
    review would allow for implementation of the second phase
    (Jan 2005-Dec 31, 2005) of the latest agreement.  The IMF
    representative said the first review is scheduled for
    December 20; the staff report will recommend an
    augmentation of the PRGF by 50 million SDR, due in part
    to increased food imports.  The Kenyans were broadly on
    track with their program.  The World Bank said the
    government was making only slow progress on reforms, with
    financial sector reforms `relatively' slow.
    Privatization was also progressing slowly, although the
    government is working on a paper setting out its
    privatization policies.  The Chairman said the government
    was on the right track on governance.  The USDEL asked
    about the relative importance of the five waivers being
    requested for the upcoming first review; the IMF said
    they were not particularly significant, characterizing
    them as `technical and small.'  More importantly,
    authorities were taking offsetting actions.  The IMF
    wanted more, but said Kenya has continued to be affected
    by contentious deliberations on constitutional reform.
    Members approved sending a letter to the GOK on the
    entering into force of the second phase.

    ---------
    KYRGYZ REPUBLIC
    ---------
    ¶31. (SBU) The Chair said he had received a letter from
    the GOK requesting an extension , to align the Paris
    Club's Houston terms treatment ending December 2004 with
    the end of the IMF program in April 2005.  The Chair
    indicated he proposed to answer positively, unless he
    heard otherwise from creditors.  The IMF rep told
    creditors that a staff mission is currently in Bishkek,
    where the team is evaluating a PRSP.  The IMF did provide
    an extension on November 19 to enable completion of the
    last review.  April was a target extension date with a
    built-in cushion, staff could go to the Board in
    February.  In the absence of a February Paris Club
    session, the IMF might seek financing assurances in
    January.  It would appreciate feedback on a new DSA; in
    its view flow treatments would not suffice, the GoK
    needing a stock treatment to stabilize debt ratios.  The
    World Bank rep discussed its leadership role in
    governance and the energy sector.  The Bank is happy with
    the progress on restructuring the energy sector, but not
    satisfied with the slow pace of government reform.  The
    Board is likely to approve three new projects totaling
    USD 38.5 million, of which 45 percent are grants.

    ¶32. (SBU) Russia said it would need to consult in Moscow
    regarding the extension request.  In any event, no
    substantial payments are due over the next few months, so
    an extension really might not be necessary.  On the DSA,
    Russia said concessional treatment should be tailored to
    debtor needs; Naples terms may be too generous.  Japan
    expressed no problem joining a consensus, and noted that
    the 2002 agreed minute includes a goodwill clause on the
    stock of previously rescheduled debt, so a concession
    could be based on that clause.  Denmark is OK with an
    extension, and of course could follow the goodwill
    clause.  Germany agreed with Denmark, and inquired when
    will the new DSA be available.  The IMF acknowledged the
    need for a new DSA, but commented that it will not change
    much from the last one.

    ¶33. (SBU) The Chair urged Russia to provide a reply
    quickly, to which Russia suggested that the Secretariat
    prepare a working paper.  (Note: USG holds no Krygyz
    debt.)

    --------
    NIGERIA
    ¶34. (SBU) According to the IMF, staff completed a visit
    on November 15 to look at the 2005 budget framework,
    which overlapped with a World Bank visit.  Article IV
    consultations are scheduled for late February, and the
    IMF would do a new DSA for a Board meeting in April or
    May.  The World Bank rep said Nigeria is on track with
    its legislative reforms; the Bank is thinking of
    increasing aid to USD 700 million.

    ¶35. (SBU) The Secretariat expects Nigeria will have an
    increased capacity to pay its debt in 2005.  IMF states
    that the DSA shows reserves for Nigeria climbing to USD
    22 billion by the end of the DSA period; this assumes
    Paris Club is paid $1 billion in 2005.  Nigeria has seen
    a steady decrease in its debt to GDP ratio, and IMF
    states that the debt is sustainable.  The Secretariat can
    approach the GoN on an informal basis to urge them to
    regularize the situation and become current.  On the 2005
    payment allocation, Denmark's proposal is one option but
    the Secretariat would not like to reopen the debate.

    ¶36. (SBU) Concerning lifting of the debt swap moratorium
    and sharing of 2005 payments: there seemed to be general
    consensus with lifting of the moratorium once all 2004
    payments have been received, although some creditors
    wanted to press for higher payments in 2005, perhaps
    requiring that Nigeria not run any new arrears.  On the
    allocation methodology for 2005, there was disagreement,
    with some supporting staying with the 2004 methodology
    and some supporting the German/Danish proposal.

    ¶37.  (SBU) Creditors (except for Spain, and Brazil which
    still has not settled its dispute with Nigeria) confirmed
    receipt of the final 2004 payment.  Russia said it had
    studied the Danish proposal, and while it is flexible it
    prefers to leave the allocation as is.  On the question
    of contact, Russia supports sending a letter that ties
    lifting the moratorium on debt swaps to increased 2005
    payments.  Germany agreed with the letter, and mentioned
    that in a bilateral meeting with the Finance Minister in
    January, it would press for increased payment.  Germany
    distributed its own table with proposed 2005 allocations,
    and suggested that the issue should only be discussed
    within the Paris Club, not with Nigeria.  Denmark agreed
    on a letter with a link to increased payments, and
    reported that a Nigerian delegation recently had asked
    about lifting the ban on new export credits.  Denmark
    said no, not with arrears and no IMF program.  As for the
    2005 allocation, its proposal is still on the table.
    Spain objected to the draft letter, but said as soon as
    it gets its payment it could support lifting the debt
    swap ban.  Brazil noted its dispute has not yet been
    settled with Nigeria about the size of its debt, and so
    it has not gotten paid.  Belgium indicated a preference
    to link the moratorium end to increased payments.  It
    prefers to continue the 2004 allocation, but suggested
    that a better solution would be for Nigeria to increase
    its payments to amounts scheduled so it runs no arrears.
    The UK agreed to lift the moratorium (once Spain is paid)
    and while admitting that leveling up is important,
    prefers not to reopen the issue.  The Netherlands signed
    an ODA agreement on December 13 with the Nigerian FinMin.
    Responding to the Dutch request for increased payments,
    the Nigerian Finance Minister had said it is a political
    decision and a tough sell (which the Dutch interpret as
    not entirely excluding the possibility).  The Finance
    Minister had asked about a new agreement and the Dutch
    replied that Nigeria still would need a new DSA.  If
    Nigeria increases payments, the Netherlands can lift the
    debt swaps embargo.  They really should clear all
    arrears, if not in one year then at least all maturities
    next year.  On the allocation, the Netherlands cannot
    accept the 2004 schedule, but can accept the Danish
    proposal (and maybe the German table after taking a
    look).  Japan agreed 2005 payments should be higher.  A
    link to the moratorium is not necessary, but could be
    acceptable, but in any event the draft letter is
    acceptable.  Italy agreed to the letter, and is
    sympathetic to the Danish/German proposal.  Switzerland
    agreed with the draft letter, although it prefers greater
    specificity regarding the amount of increase payments,
    and strengthening the link.  The USDEL agreed to greater
    specificity, and agreed that if Nigeria were to meet all
    its maturities in 2005, the Paris Club could avoid the
    allocation problem.  Finland supports the letter.

    ¶38. (SBU)  The Chair took note of the consensus on
    sending a letter, and the lack of consensus on allocation
    of 2005 payments.  On the latter point, he suggested a
    technical meeting in January to address the issue.
    Secretariat also reminded delegations of the Ngozi lunch

    SIPDIS
    with heads of delegations at the January session.

    ----
    PERU
    ----
    ¶39. (SBU) The Chair reported that Peru has no intention
    to return to the Paris Club, but since it has a peak in
    its repayment schedule, it would like to partially
    buyback some of its short term debt to smooth out those
    peaks.  The IMF said it had approved on June 9 a
    precautionary standby arrangement.  On November 19 the
    Board completed its review, and a second review will
    occur in mid-February 2005.  Peru is just using the IMF
    arrangement to bolster investor confidence to carry it
    through its elections.  It has reduced its public debt
    ratios from 48 percent of GDP in 2003 to 40 percent in
    ¶2004.  Debt humps will occur in 2008 through 2012.  The
    Finance Minister wants conduct market operations to
    perform this buyback.  The buyback would save costs on
    debt, improve duration and reduce the overall stock of
    debt.  The IMF supports the buyback proposal.  The World
    Bank said it is granting USD 950 million in new lending;
    it welcomes the buyback proposal.

    ¶40. (SBU) The Secretariat noted the proposal would indeed
    decrease debt peaks.  The buyback discount rate would
    equal the exchange rate for long term debt, meaning
    payments at slightly higher than par.  The Secretariat
    supports the Peruvian request.

    ¶41.  (SBU) The USDEL said it could go along with the
    Secretariat proposal, and promised to study the request.

    SIPDIS
    Germany said it is positively inclined to the proposal,
    it can go along with a market rate set multilaterally,
    and an exchange of letters would be sufficient to effect
    the operation.  Spain said it supports the proposal in
    principle, and is OK with the methodology.  Japan said it
    would like more time to study the details.  Italy is in
    principle interested, and is OK with the methodology - it
    is an opportunity to chart new ground.

    ¶42.  The Chair said he would have the Secretariat prepare
    a letter reporting agreement in principle but requesting
    more details.  The issue will be taken up in January.
    Creditors should have preliminary views by then.

    ------
    POLAND
    ------
    ¶43.  (SBU) The IMF and the World Bank reiterated support
    for Poland's prepayment offer.  The Secretariat
    circulated a working paper on how to calculate the
    discount rate for those countries that chose debt-
    servicing reduction (DSR), noting that debt for nature
    swaps would have to be interrupted to achieve the 50
    percent NPV reduction accorded in the 1991 Agreed Minute.
    Many countries expressed interest in the prepayment
    offer, with a slight majority indicating their intention
    to pursue the DSR option.

    ¶44.  (SBU) Germany said it has chosen debt reduction so
    is not concerned with the DSR options.  Belgium agreed
    with the working paper methodology, and reiterated its
    opposition to being pressured to participate.  The
    Netherlands said it will participate and had already told
    the Poles; it chose debt reduction so the options are of
    no concern.  Japan said it might have been willing to
    participate, but it chose DSR so it will not participate.
    Italy chose DSR, agrees with the methodology, and has not
    yet decided whether it will participate.  Sweden chose DR
    and is interested.  Canada said one of its agencies, the
    largest creditor, is not interested, but the GOC and EDC
    are interested (DR option).  Denmark chose DSR, is
    checking the math and seeking authorization; a discount
    of 11-12 percent might be acceptable.  The USDEL is quite
    attracted to the offer; it chose DR and indicated it
    still had some internal issues relating to potential
    budgetary impacts of prepayment.  .  Finland chose DR
    option, and is interested.  Austria chose DSR, is still
    checking formulas but probably is mostly not interested.
    Switzerland selected DSR, is ok with methodology, but
    hasn't decided yet whether to participate.  UK has chosen
    the DR option, and is interested.  Norway chose the DSR
    option, and is still thinking.  Spain is not likely to
    participate.  France chose the DSR option, and agrees
    with methodology but is still thinking over its
    participation.

    ¶45.  (SBU) Although many countries indicated interest, a
    number still needed to think about whether they would
    participate or not.  The Secretariat asked that creditors
    come back to the Secretariat by the end of the year with
    their formal positions so that the Secretariat could
    inform Poland of Paris Club interest.

    ------
    RUSSIA
    ------
    ¶46. (SBU) The Chair reviewed the Russian offer, and
    before going around the table for reactions, noted the
    USDEL was the lone holdout on whether to set the discount
    bilaterally or multilaterally.  The IMF reported that it
    is still a bit too early to say the Russian government
    has reached a final decision on the Finance Ministry's
    prepayment offer.  Based on 2005 budget assumptions,
    approximately USD 10 billion would be available.  A
    bullet buyback would require borrowing from central bank
    reserves.  The Fund wishes to avoid relaxation of Russian
    fiscal policy, and in fact would prefer further fiscal
    tightening to bolster monetary policy goals.  In short,
    the IMF welcomes the prepayment.  The World Bank concurs.

    ¶47. (SBU) Germany is pleased its comments to the working
    paper were incorporated, and is prepared to negotiate the
    Russian offer.  It prefers to leave securitization open
    as a consequence of failure (note: Germany securitized
    some of its Russian Paris Club debt in June 2004, to
    Russia's consternation).  The discount rate should be set
    multilaterally and be market based, as per the working
    paper and not per the Russian request.  Austria urged
    agreement on methodology, voluntary participation, and
    freedom to securitize.  Italy agreed to the working paper
    and a multilateral approach.  Netherlands favors the
    multilateral approach, might consider combining discount
    with Aries bonds, but insists on cash.  Australia has not
    yet decided, but if there is a three-year prepayment with
    the first year involving cash and subsequent years
    involving bonds, it would only participate in the first
    year.  Sweden agrees with the working paper, and will
    provide written comments to the working paper.  Japan
    agrees with the working paper and that the freedom to opt
    out should be included.  Canada is not interested in
    participating but does support a multilateral approach.
    Belgium, Denmark, and Spain agree with the working paper
    and stress voluntary participation, as does the UK.
    Finland said it is interested in the Russian proposal and
    supports the multilateral approach.  The USDEL
    acknowledged that it had argued for a strictly bilateral
    approach, to preserve voluntary participation, but would
    join the consensus for a multilateral approach, on the
    condition that Russia first clears all arrears to all
    Paris Club creditors.  The USDEL also noted the existence
    of USG contract prepayment clauses that allow prepayment
    without penalty.

    ¶48. (SBU) The Chair took note of the consensus on the
    working paper, with emphasis on voluntary participation.
    He will therefore indicate that consensus to the Russians
    and will inform the Russians that the Paris Club will
    meet with them in January.  Germany proposed that as
    Russia is a Paris Club member, a classical negotiation
    format is unnecessary; the Secretariat could work with
    them bilaterally in advance of the next session.  Germany
    also posed a question to the IMF regarding the timing of
    Russian prepayment to the IMF.  The IMF said it
    understood Russia proposed to prepay the Paris Club
    creditors first, and then pay the IMF whatever is left
    over.

    ------------
    SIERRA LEONE
    ------------
    ¶49. (SBU) The Secretariat prepared a draft letter
    granting Sierra Leone an extension so that its Paris Club
    treatment would coincide with the recently-extended IMF
    program.  The IMF reported that Sierra Leone had its
    fifth review on November 12, when its PRGF was extended
    by three months to June 2005.  Progress was broadly
    satisfactory.  The government completed its PRSP this
    month.  With a one-year implementation period, HIPC
    completion point (CP) could be considered end-2005 at the
    earliest.  The Chairman said that if Sierra Leone fails
    to reach CP, the Club would send another letter.

    -----
    SUDAN
    -----
    ¶50.  The Chairman opened the discussion by asking what
    conditions the Paris Club would have for dealing with
    Sudan.  The IMF said a March 2005 Board date was set for
    Article IV discussions, and that a 2005 SMP was
    envisaged, using a Rights-Accumulated Policy approach.
    Any timetable will depend on the peace process and a
    resolution of the Darfur problem.  The IMF said funding
    for IMF arrears clearance for Sudan needs to be
    identified.   It also confirmed that financing assurances
    would be needed for a RAP.  Zambia had received a Naples
    treatment under a RAP in 1992, which could be used as a
    precedent for Sudan.  Norway said Darfur and peace
    agreement were requirements, and asked when non-Paris
    Club creditors would be advised of the need for financing
    assurances.

    ¶51. (SBU) The USDEL also affirmed that no formal
    discussion of arrears clearance should take place before
    Darfur was resolved.  Responding to a question from
    Denmark, the IMF said the RAP could last 1-3 years.  He
    also said IMF HIPC financing could take time (one idea
    has been IMF gold sales).  Answering the UK question
    about getting non-Paris Club creditors involved, the IMF
    said under the IMF's lending into arrears policy, the IMF
    considers that financing assurances from Paris Club
    creditors extend to non-Paris Club creditors.  However,
    that Board decision dates to 1983, a time when Paris Club
    creditors were the largest group of creditors; however,
    now Sudan has large non-Paris Club creditors, so it would
    be desirable for Sudan to seek comparable treatment.
    Either the PC itself could consider contacting major non-
    PC creditors on Sudan's behalf (precedents exist), or the
    IMF could consult via ED's, per Iraq model.  The Chairman
    said Secretariat could contact; the German rep said the
    Club should avoid sending a signal to the outside world;
    the US agreed, reiterating that Darfur would need to be
    resolved before outside creditors were engaged.
    Minimize considered.

    LEACH

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