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### Viewing cable 05PARIS8622, FRANCE REVISES 2005 CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05PARIS8622 | 2005-12-22 16:42 | 2011-08-24 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Paris

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

    221642Z Dec 05

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 008622

    SIPDIS

    PASS FEDERAL RESERVE
    PASS CEA
    STATE FOR EB and EUR/WE
    TREASURY FOR DO/IM
    TREASURY ALSO FOR DO/IMB AND DO/E WDINKELACKER
    USDOC FOR 4212/MAC/EUR/OEURA

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EFIN ECON PGOV FR
    SUBJECT:  FRANCE REVISES 2005 CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET

    REF:  Paris 7771

    ¶1. SUMMARY: The GOF revised its 2005 central government
    budget to include additional social expenditures and revised
    receipts including transfers to local authorities.  The
    revised budget includes measures dear to President Chirac: a
    tax on airline tickets to help fund development aid, and tax
    cuts on future capital gains.  The government offset
    additional expenditures, but the 2005 general government
    deficit probably will exceed 3.0% of GDP.  END SUMMARY.

    Government Commits Not to Increase Central Government Budget
    Deficit
    --------------------------------------------- ---------
    ¶2.  Finance Minister Thierry Breton and Budget Minister Jean-
    Francois Cope introduced the revised 2005 central government
    (CG) budget on November 23, 2005.  The 2005 CG budget
    deficit is now set at 44.1 billion euros, an estimate the
    government believes is consistent with a 46.8 billion euro
    cash-basis deficit, which includes 2 billion euro carry-
    overs from 2004.  In fall 2004, when the Parliament passed
    the 2005 appropriations bill, the deficit was set at 44.9
    billion euros.

    ¶3.  The revised 2005 budget takes into account additional
    spending (about 1 billion euros) for:
    -An increase in already-planned expenditures (490 million
    euros) [particularly government guarantees (200 million
    euros)], compensation for victims of anti-semitic acts (134
    million euros), justice fees and civil compensation (75
    million euros), and government-subsidized loans (35 million
    euros);
    -Additional social spending (300 million euros) including
    government housing programs (155 million euros), allowances
    to the handicapped (78 million euros), allowances for single
    parents (32 million euros), and medical assistance (27
    million euros); and
    -Miscellaneous spending (240 million euros), including
    compensation for the 2003 drought (50 million euros), public
    transportation (31 million euros), and official development
    assistance (27 million euros).

    The Government Funds French CNN
    -------------------------------
    ¶4.  Proving that the GOF still can find a place for pork-
    barrel projects, or perhaps reflecting its cultural
    diversity priorities, the government gave the green light on
    November 30 for an international French-language TV news
    channel to start broadcasting by the end of next year.  The
    government committed to funding the channel under an
    agreement lasting until 2010.  Thirty million euros were set
    aside for this project in the 2005 CG budget.

    Putting a Lid on Total Spending
    -------------------------------
    ¶5.  The government emphasized that, for the third year, the
    amount of the CG budget passed by the Parliament will be
    strictly observed.  Additional spending is mostly offset by
    900 million euro cuts in other parts of the CG budget,
    notably the public service debt (730 million euros) thanks
    to lower-than-projected interest rates.  Total cuts (6
    billion euros) offset unexpected expenditures made in
    February, April, September and November, notably emergency
    measures to prevent avian flu (1 billion euros).

    ¶6.  Minister Breton also highlighted government efforts to
    control the volume of spending in 2005.  He said limiting
    exceptions to the new rule of not carrying over more than 3%
    of spending would result in a significant reduction of the
    "carry-over bubble."  He explained this would reduce the
    need to set aside significant reserves at the beginning of
    each year (7.4 billion in 2005).  The government plans to
    reduce carry-overs from 9.7 billion euros in 2005 to around
    5 billion euros in 2006, a big improvement compared with the
    14.1 billion euros carried over in 2002.

    Cuts in Spending Offset Lower-than-Expected Receipts
    --------------------------------------------- -------
    ¶7.  As part of the 6 billion euro cut in CG spending, a 3.1
    billion euro cut in CG spending was made in November to
    offset a reduction of approximately 2 billion euros in tax
    receipts.  CG income tax receipts were expected to be lower
    due to sluggish economic growth.  GDP growth is likely to be
    no higher than 1.5% in 2005, much lower than the initial
    government forecast of 2.5% (ref).

    ¶8.  Government transfers to local authorities (departments)
    will total 510 million euros, including 457 million euros in
    tax on petroleum products, to pay for new local-level social
    responsibilities, notably for granting minimum wages (Revenu
    Minimum d'Insertion - RMI; and Revenu Minimum d'Activite
    RMA).  The government claims the 510 million euro transfer
    will be offset by higher receipts from the exceptional levy
    on distributed profits due to the reform of the tax credit
    (250 million euros) and the revised schedule of corporate
    tax payments (300 million euros).
    Budget Reflects Chirac's commitment to "International
    Solidarity" and . . .
    --------------------------------------------- ------
    ¶9.  As part of the revised 2005 CG budget, the government
    approved President Chirac's plan to levy a new tax on
    airline tickets sold in France, in order to raise funds for
    development programs in developing countries, notably the
    fight against AIDS.  The tax, which should go into effect in
    July 2006, will raise around 200 million euros per year by
    taxing tickets by 1 to 40 euros.  Although President Chirac
    has stressed that the tax would not harm the competitiveness
    of the French airline industry, Christian Blanc, center-
    right deputy and former Air France Chairman, has criticized
    the tax as "a very bad idea."  The French air travel
    industry has warned that the tax would result in a drop in
    passenger numbers of one million per year, including a
    600,000 passenger drop in domestic flights, which could
    translate into 3,000 job losses.  Jean-Cyril Spinetta, chief
    executive of Air France-KLM, said it was not the right
    approach, but it would not jeopardize the company's earnings
    targets.

     . . . Increased Individual Shareholding
    ----------------------------------------
    ¶10.  To encourage investment in stocks and thereby increase
    corporate investment, the GOF introduced measures to lower
    the capital gains tax.  Shareholders will be partially
    exempted from the 16% tax on capital gains on shares bought
    in 2006 if they hold the shares until 2012.  They will be
    fully exempted if they hold the shares for eight years, or
    until 2014.  Nonetheless, shareholders will still have to
    pay the "social contributions" due on capital gains (11% in
    2005).  CEOs of small and medium-sized companies (SMEs), who
    decide to resign and cash in their shares, would benefit
    from full exemption as soon as January 2006.  The government
    expects the sale of 50,000 to 70,000 companies each year in
    the next five years, and is proposing to extend the scheme
    of tax exemption to gains on the sales of farms and retail
    trade businesses.

    Tax Deductions to Improve France's "Attractiveness" . . .
    --------------------------------------------- ------------
    ¶11.  The revised 2005 budget also includes measures to
    improve France's attractiveness (literally) by creating a
    50% tax deduction on taxable profits for young artists, up
    to 50,000 euros per year, from the sale of works of art.
    The budget also seeks to improve the tax climate for senior
    executives who move to France by exempting transfer bonuses
    and some income from taxes.  In a special effort to boost
    exports, French citizens working more than 120 days abroad
    and who boost French exports will benefit from full
    exemption of income tax, effective January 1, 2006.

    . . . and to Help Sectors Affected by Oil Price Increases
    --------------------------------------------- -------------
    ¶12.  Companies harmed by oil price increases because they
    use trucks and buses will benefit from a reduction in
    certain taxes.  The reduction is increased if companies use
    non-polluting vehicles.  Partial repayment of tax on
    petroleum products to farmers consuming diesel fuel could be
    extended in 2005, on the basis of purchases of diesel made
    after September 1, 2005.

    Other Tax schemes
    -----------------
    ¶13.  The revised 2005 budget also includes increased funding
    for anti-fraud and anti-tax evasion activities, an increase
    in the general taxes on pollution in various forms, and a
    cut in corporate income taxes by large companies.

    ¶14.  Deputies examined the revised CG budget from December 1
    to December 8, and proposed 133 amendments.  The deputies
    insisted that the television ("redevance") tax surplus be
    earmarked and dedicated to investment in the audiovisual
    sector for antipiracy initiatives (among others), and not to
    the CG budget.  And it was the deputies who added the
    provisions increasing income tax credits to favor French
    expatriates promoting French exports.  Senators will start
    discussing the revised 2005 budget on December 19.

    Budget Deficit Likely to exceed 3% of GDP in 2005
    --------------------------------------------- ----
    ¶15.  In discussing the budget, Minister Breton reiterated,
    "The budget deficit will be 3% of GDP."  However, the
    general government (GG) deficit is still heavily dependent
    on the social security deficit.  (The GG budget includes
    central government, social security and local authorities).
    Based on the Social Security Commission's estimates, the
    social security deficit (including health insurance, family
    allowances, work-related accidents and pensions) may
    increase to 15.2 billion euros in 2005 from 12.2 billion in
    ¶2004.  Despite transfers from the government, local
    authorities fear they will be unable to balance their
    budgets due to required additional social spending (similar
    to "unfunded mandates" for state governments in the U.S.).

    ¶16.  Citing "internal Finance Ministry sources" on September
    30, the French newspaper Le Monde reported that the finance
    ministry privately calculated the 2005 GG deficit at 3.3-
    3.4% of GDP.  Le Monde said that current trends for 2006
    pointed to even wider deficits in the 3.5-3.6% range.  In
    its recent semi-annual outlook, the OECD and the European
    Commission both forecast a general government deficit of
    3.2% of GDP in 2005.

    Comment
    -------
    ¶17.  Although Breton had indicated advance knowledge of the
    contents of a government-commissioned report released
    December 14 on the ballooning general government debt
    (septel), the final 2005 central government budget appears
    to lack any coherent strategy for addressing the debt or the
    deficit.  Although the report only called for a five-year
    plan to seriously control spending growth, there is little
    sign in this budget that the GOF feels compelled to take the
    politically sensitive decisions needed to implement such a
    plan.
    STAPLETON

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