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### Viewing cable 03OTTAWA659, MEDIA REACTION: IRAQ; AFGHANISTAN; TURKEY

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
03OTTAWA659 | 2003-03-10 20:29 | 2011-04-28 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Ottawa

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 000659

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR WHA/CAN, WHA/PDA
    WHITE HOUSE PASS NSC/WEUROPE

    E.O. 12958:  N/A
    TAGS: KPAO KMDR OIIP OPRC CA
    SUBJECT:  MEDIA REACTION: IRAQ; AFGHANISTAN; TURKEY

    IRAQ
    ¶1.   "Pope has zeal, but no answer on Iraq question"
    Columnist Marcus Gee noted in the leading Globe and
    Mail (3/6) that, "John Paul is dead against war and he
    is not afraid to say so.... To drive his antiwar
    message home, John Paul has met many of the leading
    players in the Iraq debate: British Prime Minister Tony
    Blair, Iraqi deputy prime minister Tariq Aziz, United
    Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan, Italian Prime
    Minister Silvio Berlusconi and Spanish Prime Minister
    Jose Maria Aznar.... The Pope's surprisingly muscular
    intervention puts him at odds with the two
    devoted Christians who are leading the campaign against
    Iraq - Mr. Bush and Mr. Blair - and sets up a
    remarkable debate over the morality of the planned
    war.... Both Mr. Blair and Mr. Bush believe just as
    strongly as the Pope that their course is the morally
    correct one. In fact, as opposition to the war has
    grown, both have begun framing their arguments in moral
    terms.... If war is the wrong answer, what, in the case
    of Iraq, is the right one? To this, Christ's Vicar has
    no good answer."

    ¶2.   "Ever new lines in the sand"
    Editorial page editor emeritus Haroon Siddiqui
    commented in the liberal Toronto Star (3/6): "Another
    week, another American rationale for hurtling toward an
    invasion of Iraq.... What we are witnessing in
    Washington is a dangerously ideological administration
    so bent on waging war that it would say just about
    anything to justify its holy mission."

    ¶3.   "The `evil axis' hits back"
    The liberal Toronto Star editorialized (3/5): "As U.S.
    President George Bush gets ready to crush Saddam
    Hussein, the rest of the 'axis of evil' are feeling
    Saddam's pain. But far from being cowed, North Korea
    and Iran seem determined to deny Bush the chance to do
    to them what he's about to do to Saddam. It's getting
    prickly out there. In Korea, the mercurial Kim Jong-il
    has countered a threat with a crisis. He has an illegal
    nuclear bomb or two, and is eyeing an assembly line....
    Iran, too, is a worry. Tehran has a murky
    'peaceful' nuclear program that's getting murkier. It
    has rebuffed IAEA requests for better access to nuclear
    sites.... All the talk in Washington of 'taking out'
    Saddam's regime before it can arm itself with horror
    weapons has emboldened Korea, and tempted Iran, to
    shield themselves from attack by acquiring the very
    nukes Saddam lacks. Washington's aggressive doctrine of
    `pre-emptively' smashing regimes that pose no threat
    but in theory might risks inviting an arms race that
    can only damage U.S. interests. Having
    loosed this stampede, Bush must now try to rein it in.
    The campaign against terror remains America's chief
    priority. But getting North Korea to abandon its nukes
    and persuading Iran not to go down the nuclear road
    ought to be high on the presidential agenda. Higher
    than regime change in Iraq. Iraq is a problem. But
    Korea is a crisis. And Iran is fast becoming one.
    However Bush may loathe Pyongyang and Tehran, he needs
    to cool his moralizing, rein in his hawkish advisers
    and deploy skilled diplomats to engage these regimes
    in a dialogue to head off catastrophe. Toppling Saddam
    is a potentially fatal distraction."

    ¶4.   "Murky message hurts U.S. case for war in Iraq"
    Columnist Marcus Gee observed in the leading Globe and
    Mail (3/5): "Is the United States trying to disarm
    Iraq's Saddam Hussein, or trying to remove him from
    power? The simple answer: both. Washington believes
    that the only way to make sure he disarms is to oust
    him. That is why it is preparing to fight. But
    somewhere on the road to Baghdad, that message has
    become clouded, confusing U.S. allies and undermining
    the case for war.... Despite all the confusion in the
    wider world about regime change, the U.S.
    administration is quite clear in its own mind about its
    war aims, which have not changed a jot since the
    beginning. Disarmament is the goal and ousting Saddam
    Hussein the method. But by muddying the message, it has
    hurt its case."

    ¶5.   "Intolerable aggression"
    The centrist Winnipeg Free Press editorialized (3/6):
    "U.S. President George Bush has been expressing high
    hopes lately about the secondary benefits that may
    result from a military operation to disarm Iraqi
    dictator Saddam Hussein. These could include freedom,
    peace and prosperity for the people of Iraq and
    neighbouring countries, establishment of a democratic
    Palestinian state and peace for Israel. It is, however,
    far from certain that these results can be achieved
    through invasion of Iraq.... Results of that distant
    kind lie far beyond Mr. Bush's control. America and its
    allies should be conscious of both the dangers and the
    opportunities, but they should not decide between war
    and peace on the basis of hoped or feared results that,
    for the moment, can only be guessed at. Invasion of
    Iraq will cause death, injury and destruction of
    property, mainly for Iraqis but also for the invaders.
    That is a terrible course to adopt and many governments
    on the United Nations Security Council have been
    reluctant to agree to such a course. The other course,
    however, is far worse. The other course is to tolerate
    aggression.... Peace and security for all countries
    depend on effective means for stopping aggression....
    The valid purpose for invading Iraq is to disarm Saddam
    Hussein. That is worth doing for itself and for the
    larger purpose of showing all would-be aggressors that
    aggression is not tolerated. If the action leads to
    general peace and contentment in the Arab world and the
    Middle East, so much the better, but George Bush should
    not count on it and he should not be surprised if his
    action produces unwelcome results that he can neither
    foresee nor prevent. The best possible result is
    compliance by Iraq with the requirements of the
    Security Council. Failing that, invasion to enforce
    compliance is a cruel necessity. If compliance is not
    enforced, then the invitation to aggression is issued
    and the nations of the world must brace themselves for
    the wars that will follow. "

    ¶6.   "The triple veto".
    Editorialist Serge Truffaut wrote in the liberal Le
    Devoir (3/6): "The last word still belongs to the chief
    inspectors who will present their report tomorrow. It
    is worth pointing out that France has insisted that the
    Blix expose be made in public and not in closed chamber
    as it was originally planned.  Yesterday's gesture by
    the Berlin-Moscow-Paris axis had an immediate impact.
    Prime Minister Blair is more isolated than ever... By
    playing his pieces so unilaterally, the leader of the
    British government has gone beyond the point of no
    return. If Washington decides to go ahead without the
    support of the U.N., as Secretary of State Colin Powell
    has predicted, Blair will be forced to follow. This man
    who preferred action over the rule of law has put
    himself in the position to be hit by the boomerang
    effect."

    ¶7.   "Losing the PR Game"
    Columnist Ian MacDonald wrote in the conservative The
    Gazette (3/5): "...Once it made a choice of going to
    the United Nations rather than going it alone on the
    road to Baghdad, the Bush administration was committed
    to a diplomatic end game in the Security Council, a
    game it clearly does not control.... Meantime, world
    opinion counts. The worldwide anti-war demonstrations
    on Feb. 15 were also a reminder of the awesome power of
    the Internet.... Never before has such a well-connected
    movement demonstrated in such impressive numbers around
    the world on a single day.... But the worst moment for
    the Bush administration might have come when Iraqi
    deputy prime minister Tariq Aziz received an audience
    from the pope.... Perhaps the best policy for the
    United States would be to stand by in the Persian Gulf
    and keep squeezing Saddam until, piece by piece, he
    destroys all his weapons of mass destruction.  Then, in
    the immortal words of the late Vermont senator, George
    ¶D. Aiken, in the context of Vietnam, Bush could simply
    declare victory and pull out."

    AFGHANISTAN
    ¶8.   "What happened to Afghanistan's cash?'
    The conservative National Post opined (3/6): "When
    Afghanistan's Taliban regime fell in late 2001, there
    was a widely shared feeling that this was a victory for
    the Afghan people as much as it was for the United
    States and its allies.... In recent months, however,
    the world's attention has become increasingly focused
    on Iraq, and it appears the West is beginning to forget
    about Afghanistan.... Washington dropped the ball on
    Afghanistan a second time, just two weeks ago. In late
    February, Japan played host to a second
    conference on Afghanistan, this time to promote the
    disarmament, demobilization and reintegration...of the
    estimated 800,000 Afghan men who serve in the country's
    network of private armies. The United States pledged
    just $14-million for this crucial effort, compared to a
    promise of $42-million from Japan. This is
    unacceptable: The United States is both the
    world's richest country and the Western nation with the
    most to lose should Afghanistan collapse or fall back
    under the sway of Taliban-like extremists.
    Washington should be rounding up more generous funding
    for the DDR and other projects. It also must commit
    larger amounts itself. It would be fantastically short-
    sighted for the United States to spend tens of billions
    of dollars fighting a high-tech war in 2001 - only to
    see the benefits squandered because of a lack of follow-
    up humanitarian funding in 2003 and
    beyond.... It should be no small embarrassment to
    Western governments that Iran - a member of George W.
    Bush's 'axis of evil' - has actually turned into one of
    Afghanistan's most generous donors.... If the Western
    effort falters, and a political vacuum develops in
    Afghanistan, we can guess what the consequences will
    be.... In 1989, when the Soviet Union was kicked out of
    Afghanistan by U.S.-backed mujahadeen, the United
    States had the chance
    to help Afghanistan rebuild. Instead, Washington
    declared victory and abandoned the country - a move
    that left Afghanistan ripe pickings for the
    Pakistan-backed Taliban a few years later. We cannot
    allow history to repeat itself."

    TURKEY
    ¶9.   "Ankara's dilemma"
    Editorialist Serge Truffaut wrote in the liberal French-
    language daily Le Devoir (3/4): "The Ankara government
    intends to try again by presenting a second motion to
    Parliament.... To rally all the members of his party,
    Erdogan will obviously have to propose a motion with
    more potential gains than those promised so far by
    Bush. The dilemma is simple: either the government
    gives satisfaction to Washington and immediately
    alienates civil society, or it refuses and its chances
    of joining the European Union sooner will increase to
    Bush's great displeasure."

    CELLUCCI

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