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### Viewing cable 05PRETORIA2161, SOUTH AFRICA: PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT, PART II OF II

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05PRETORIA2161 | 2005-06-02 10:05 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Pretoria

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PRETORIA 002161

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    E.O. 12958:  N/A
    TAGS: EINV ECON EFIN ETRD SF
    SUBJECT:  SOUTH AFRICA: PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT, PART II OF II

    REF:  A. PRETORIA 01998
          ¶B. 2004 PRETORIA 03113
          ¶C. CAPE TOWN 00114

    (U) This cable is Sensitive But Unclassified.  Not for
    Internet distribution.

    ¶1.  (U) Summary.  Faced with the dilemma of having so much
    capability vested in often-troubled SOEs and the slow decline
    of the nation's economic infrastructure, President Mbeki has
    set a new strategic course.  The central element is to raise
    the level of public investment to improve the nation's
    infrastructure and achieve faster economic growth.  In
    particular, Mbeki wants state owned enterprises (SOEs, i.e.,
    public corporations with the state as the sole shareholder)
    and public-private partnerships at all levels of government
    to lead the way.  Two giant SOEs, Eskom and Transnet, will be
    responsible for about half of R267 billion ($45 billion) in
    planned public sector investment over the next five years.
    The strategy represents a marked departure from the past, and
    effectively puts the government's privatization program of
    major SOEs on hold.  The Department of Public Enterprises,
    which represents the government's shareholder interest in
    large SOEs, and the National Treasury, which must approve all
    PPP projects (ref A), will have to play leading and sometimes
    intersecting roles.  End Summary.

    Expanding the Role of the Public Sector
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶2.  (U) South Africa has embarked on a public sector
    investment campaign driven by state owned enterprises (SOEs)
    and public-private partnerships (PPPs) to upgrade the
    nation's infrastructure and drive economic growth.  In his
    February 2005 State of the Nation address, President Mbeki
    made it clear that SOEs and PPPs would lead public sector
    investment, especially to improve the nation's aging
    infrastructure, attract greater foreign investment, and to
    finally propel South Africa into a period of high, employment
    generating growth.  In October 2004, Finance Minister Trevor
    Manuel announced plans to spend R267 billion ($45 billion) on
    public sector investment over the next five years.  The
    government also wants public sector investment to create new
    opportunities for "Black Economic Empowerment" (BEE)
    companies.

    ¶3.  (U) The change in policy has been accompanied by a fair
    amount of introspection.  In an article entitled "A Failed
    Consensus" published in the New Agenda economic journal and
    the Financial Mail (May 27, 2005), Manuel questions the
    relevance of the Washington Consensus to African countries.
    "One of the most important drawbacks of the Washington
    Consensus" he writes, "was that, though it provide a good
    mixture of reforms to both stabilize the economy and
    encourage private sector activity, it did little to help
    resolve structural and institutional constraints on growth."
    He later concludes, "most African states need to expand, not
    contract, their public sector and dramatically improve
    (their) efficiency in delivering quality public services."

    The Problem is Now the Solution
    -------------------------------

    ¶4.  (U) Mbeki's new strategy represents a marked departure
    from the 1990s, effectively putting privatization on hold and
    breathing new life into large, monopolistic SOEs.  South
    Africa's SOEs were originally formed to pursue the industrial
    policies of an economically isolated apartheid regime.  In
    the mid 1990s, an ANC-led government embraced privatization
    as a way of dislodging SOE control of the economy, attracting
    foreign direct investment, driving economic growth, and
    ultimately merging the white and black economies.  Government
    began unloading state assets and preparing parastatals for
    eventual privatization by converting them into public
    corporations and establishing industry regulators.  While
    plans to restructure various industry sectors were drawn,
    most stalled for political, bureaucratic, and sometimes
    market reasons.

    ¶5.  (U) Slow implementation gave SOEs the opportunity to prove
    to government that they could serve new political purposes --
    such as rolling out ambitious social service programs to
    deliver electricity, water, transportation, and telephone
    services to the poor.  Left-of-center politicians agreed,
    pushing for an expanded role for SOEs to redress the
    inequities of the past.  The problem was that many government
    social service programs were essentially unprofitable, and
    came sometimes at the expense of maintaining or investing in
    new infrastructure.  The sad fact has been that, since 1994,
    SOEs have consumed far more fixed investment than they have
    contributed to the South African economy.  This partly
    explains the serious bottlenecks in electricity supply and
    transportation services today.  Now, the government's plan is
    to use the balance sheets and market dominance of these SOEs
    to invest in large infrastructure projects to overcome these
    bottlenecks and entice private sector investment through an
    assortment of PPPs.

    Turning Frogs into Princes
    --------------------------

    ¶6.  (U) Faced with the dilemma of having so much capability
    vested in often-troubled SOEs and the slow decline of the
    nation's economic infrastructure, President Mbeki set a new
    strategic course for his second term.  Essentially, he wants
    to turn SOE "frogs" into investment leading "princes."  The
    "edge of the spear" may have been the late 2003 appointment
    of National Treasury Director General Maria Ramos as CEO of
    Transnet (the SOE parent of the national railroad, port,
    airline, and pipeline companies).  Her instructions were to
    revitalize the transport sector, even if it means massive
    reorganization.  Another key appointment was the reassignment
    of Minister of Trade and Industry Alec Erwin, the architect
    of Mbeki's public sector investment strategy, to Public
    Enterprises soon after the 2004 elections.  His instructions
    were to press large SOEs into undertaking major investment
    programs, thus morphing them into drivers of economic
    efficiency and growth.

    ¶7.  (U) Erwin has a lot of material to work with in the seven
    SOEs that he supervises.  They include Eskom (electric
    utility), Transnet (transportation), Denel (defense), Alexkor
    (diamond mining), SAFCOL (forestry), Arivia.kom (information
    technology), and Aventura (vacation resorts -- in the process
    of being sold to a BEE company).  Together, these SOEs employ
    136,000 people, procure R13 billion ($2.2 billion) annually
    in goods and services, own combined assets of R176 billion
    ($29 billion), and generate R84 billion ($14 billion) in
    annual revenue, roughly equal to 6% of South Africa's GDP.

    ¶8.  (U) Since his arrival at the Department of Public
    Enterprises (DPE), Erwin has thrown himself into overhauling
    the seven large SOEs that report to him, as well as
    re-engineering DPE itself (ref B).  On April 15, during his
    budget presentation to Parliament, Erwin dismissed DPE
    Director General Eugene Mokeyane and Denel (defense SOE) CEO
    Victor Moche.  He also declared that from now on SOEs would
    focus on their core businesses and sell off non-core assets.
    In fact, Denel, Eskom (electric utility SOE), and Transnet
    plan to sell assets totaling R8.6 billion ($1.4 billion).  In
    addition, Denel's focus, in expectation of a large Airbus
    offset contract, will shift to aerospace instead of
    conventional arms.  The other, smaller SOEs are still subject
    to sale.

    ¶9.  (U) Erwin also wasted little time in making major changes
    at DPE, which he has already reorganized into four
    streamlined divisions: corporate finance and transactions,
    corporate structure and strategy, governance and policy, and
    analysis and risk management.  In addition, Erwin has
    launched a major recruiting effort to find the skills his
    department needs to implement Mbeki's strategy, and to grow
    his staff well beyond its current 150 employees.

    ¶10.  (U) Similarly, Ramos has wasted little time in making
    major changes at Transnet, including cleaning house of
    unwanted executives and reorganizing the state enterprise.
    Transnet's companies include Spoornet (railroad), National
    Ports Authority (port ownership), South African Port
    Operations (port operations), South African Airways
    (airline), and Petronet (oil and gas pipelines).  In June
    2004, Ramos replaced Transnet's Treasurer with a former
    General Manager from the National Ports Authority.  In August
    2004, she engineered the replacement of all members of the
    Transnet and South African Airways Board of Directors.  In
    January 2005, she replaced Spoornet's CEO.  Nicknamed "South
    Africa's Iron Lady," Ramos has earned a reputation for
    "no-nonsense" as she pulls out the stops to turn around her
    unwieldy state enterprise.

    ¶11.  (U) Ramos quickly unfurled a four-part strategy to turn
    around Transnet that can be encapsulated as follows: (1)
    focus on core businesses; (2) restructure Transnet debt; (3)
    improve corporate governance; and (4) invest in human
    capital.  In an effort to streamline a top heavy parent
    corporation, Ramos is in the midst of slashing Transnet staff
    from 700 to around 50.  For focus on core businesses, Ramos
    plans to sell 14 non-core assets within the next 24 months,
    including Transnet's lucrative 26% stake in the Cape Town's
    Victoria and Albert Waterfront (ref C).  Ramos will also cut
    scandal-ridden South African Airways loose, converting it
    into its own state enterprise that will report directly to
    Erwin at DPE.

    Spotlight on Eskom and Transnet
    -------------------------------

    ¶12.  (U) Under the government's public sector investment
    program, two giant SOEs, Eskom and Transnet, will assume
    responsibility for about half of all planned investment, or
    R136 billion ($23 billion), over a five year period.  Of
    considerable note is that Eskom and Transnet will not/not
    receive any budget support from government.  They will have
    only their own cash flows, joint venture partners, and debt
    markets on which to draw.

    ¶13.  (U) Eskom, one of the top ten electric utilities in the
    world in terms of generating capacity, is slated to spend R95
    billion ($16 billion) to meet South Africa's growing demand
    for power over the next five years.  The company plans to
    spend half of this amount, R48 billion ($8 billion), adding
    to its current capacity of 35,000 Megawatts (MW).  This
    includes investing R12 billion ($2 billion) to bring back on
    line its Camden, Grootvlei, and Komati coal fired power
    plants, with a combined capacity of 3000 MW.  In addition,
    Eskom will partner with the private sector to build two new
    1000 MW power plants by 2009, together worth R23 billion
    ($3.8 billion).  These investments should raise Eskom's
    overall generating capacity to more than 40,000 MW within
    five years.

    ¶14.  (U) Meanwhile, Transnet is poised to invest R41 billion
    ($7 billion) in rail, port, and pipeline projects in an
    effort to create a seamless inter-modal freight transport
    service for the nation.  Ramos recently told an investment
    conference that she was focused first on improving the
    nation's railways, as industry had constantly criticized
    Spoornet for poor quality service, inefficiency, and high
    prices.  Her plan to restructure Spoornet includes investing
    R14 billion ($2.3 billion) on upgrading locomotives and
    improving the railways.  In particular, the OREX line from
    the Sishen iron mine to Saldanha Bay will be upgraded to
    carry an additional 10-15 million metric tons of iron ore per
    year for export.  Similarly, the Coallink line to Richards
    Bay will be upgraded to carry an additional 10 million metric
    tons of coal for export.  Transnet will spend R7 billion
    ($1.2 billion) to redesign the ports of Durban, Cape Town,
    and Ngqura (Coega).  Transnet will also spend R3 billion
    ($500 million) to build another multipurpose pipeline from
    Gauteng to Durban.

    ¶15.  (U) As Ramos explained to the investment conference,
    Transnet must undertake such an ambitious plan to recover
    from its failure to invest in infrastructure over the past 30
    years.  Though she claimed that the private sector was
    "knocking on her door" at all hours to propose PPP projects,
    Ramos cautioned investors that Transnet would still take its
    time to evaluate proposals and to sequence rail, pipeline,
    and port projects in a logical manner.

    Who's in Charge?
    ----------------

    ¶16.  (SBU) Since much SOE investment should take the form of a
    public-private partnership (PPP), SOE investment plans would
    appear necessarily to intersect with the National Treasury's
    PPP program, begging the question: "Which department will
    lead?"  According to National Treasury, the PPP Unit must
    approve all PPP project feasibility studies, requests for
    proposal, contracts, "value for money" reports, and
    management plans -- including those involving the SOEs (ref
    A).  Therefore, National Treasury will lead.  According to
    DPE, however, SOEs are not legally bound to obtain Treasury
    approval before investing.  Therefore, DPE will lead when it
    comes to Eskom and Transnet investment.

    ¶17.  (SBU) The PPP Unit official that we spoke to admitted
    that the government was entering uncharted territory, but
    pointed out that the Public Finance Management Act 1 of 1999
    required Treasury to monitor the progress of all PPPs.  He
    believed that all SOEs would likely have to obtain the
    Finance Minister's blessing before proceeding with PPPs, even
    though the investments did not draw directly from public
    coffers.  However, it was not clear to him whether the
    National Treasury would scrutinize the implementation of all
    SOE PPPs.  He speculated that maybe the DPE and/or the
    Auditor General (who reports to Parliament) would perform
    this function.  He added that Treasury and DPE were not alone
    in administering the government's public sector investment
    strategy.  Coordination was important.  Other departments,
    such as the Department of Transportation and the Department
    of Minerals and Energy, would continue to play important
    roles as regulators and policy makers who supervised industry
    activity and devised sector development strategies.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶18.  (SBU) Mbeki has made it clear that he intends to use
    public sector investment to overcome growing deficiencies in
    national infrastructure and kick start faster economic growth
    for the country.  To accomplish these goals, he has enlisted
    the support of all government agencies -- national,
    provincial, and municipal.  He has clearly given marching
    orders to National Treasury and DPE, and expects them to
    lead.  How these two departments relate to one another and
    how they coordinate with other government entities, many of
    which are classified by National Treasury as "under
    performing," may define the success of Mbeki's strategy, if
    not his second term.  Beyond that, each department has its
    own implementation challenges.  Will the PPP Unit at National
    Treasury be overwhelmed with projects just as the large SOEs
    role out their major PPPs?  Can DPE turn around failing SOEs
    fast enough so that they can successfully perform the
    investment roles that have been identified for them?  Mbeki
    is counting on DPE and National Treasury leadership to
    achieve high economic growth, reduce unemployment, and set
    the country on a solid economic footing for the next ten
    years.  For this tender democracy with over 40% unemployment
    (broadly measured), the political stakes are considerable.

    HARTLEY

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