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### Viewing cable 05BRASILIA40, FIRST TEST OF BRAZIL'S NEW ENERGY REGULATORY MODEL

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05BRASILIA40 | 2005-01-05 13:03 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Brasilia

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 BRASILIA 000040

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    NSC FOR RENIGAR, DEMPSEY
    TREASURY FOR OASIA - DAS LEE AND FPARODI
    STATE PASS TO FED BOARD OF GOVERNORS FOR ROBITAILLE
    USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWAR D
    USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USCS/OIO/WH/RD/DDEVITO/DANDERSON/EOL SON
    DOE FOR SLADISLAW

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ENRG EINV ECON PGOV BR
    SUBJECT: FIRST TEST OF BRAZIL'S NEW ENERGY REGULATORY MODEL
    GENERATES CONCERN

    REFS:  A) 04 BRASILIA 2834 NOTAL

           B) 04 RIO DE JANEIRO 518
           C) 04 SAO PAULO 591

    ¶1.  (U) This cable reflects input from Consulates General
    Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.

    ¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY.  The GoB took a long-awaited first step
    towards implementing its new energy regulatory model with a
    December 7 auction of electricity supply futures.  The
    Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) trumpeted the auction as
    an unqualified success, but analysts, investors and
    regulators have criticized both the conduct and results of
    the auction, which resulted in unexpectedly low energy
    prices.  While some observers see the results simply as a
    function of current excess supply and other market factors,
    many analysts are concerned that the low prices will
    decapitalize existing power producers and fail to generate
    sufficient investments to match future energy needs.
    Although the auction was the first real test of the GoB's
    new energy regime (reftels), additional auctions to be held
    in early 2005 should more clearly indicate the new model's
    fate.  END SUMMARY.

    BACKGROUND: FINALLY A NEW ENERGY MODEL
    --------------------------------------

    ¶3. (U) Since 1995, GoB energy policy has acknowledged the
    need for reliance, to some degree, on market forces and
    private sector involvement, including some privatization of
    the sector.  Upon taking office in 2002, however, the Lula
    administration was determined to establish a new model for
    the sector (reftels).  While the Lula administration did
    not want to pursue further privatization of existing power
    companies, which are primarily parastatal, it recognized
    that it still needed to bring in new private investment
    into the sector.  The result was a new hybrid model,
    enacted in March 2004, designed to stabilize the energy
    sector by increasing state control while maintaining
    aspects of market competition.

    ¶4. (U) To account for the differences in cost structures
    among older, already-amortized power plants and new
    investment, the complicated new model divides power
    generators into two competition groups: "old energy"
    (generators that came on-line before January 1, 2000) and
    "new energy" (future generators and those that came on-line
    after January 1, 2000).  (Note: existing generators whose
    projects came on-line after the cut-off date for "old
    energy" are sometimes referred to as "Energia de Botox" -
    i.e., old energy, but with a new face.  End Note.)

    THE FIRST TEST OF THE NEW MODEL
    --------------------------------

    ¶5. (U) The December 7 "old energy mega-auction," run by the
    newly-created Electrical Energy Commercialization Chamber
    (CCEE), was widely seen as the first real test of the new
    GoB energy model.  The 17,000-megawatt auction was for the
    "captive" consumers -- primarily households and small
    businesses -- who represent a little over 60% of current
    power demand, and who purchase energy through the large
    distributors.  (Note: Large industrial and commercial power
    consumers may negotiate power-supply contracts directly
    with the energy producers, including some private companies
    who did not sell their energy at the auction, through the
    Free Contract Market (ACL).  End Note.)

    ¶6. (U) Brazilian Minister of Mines and Energy Dilma
    Rousseff publicly called the auction a "success," and
    declared it would bring stability to the energy sector
    through longer-term contracts and lower consumer prices.
    The national average price for energy at the time of the
    auction was R$61/MWh.  For the 8-year contracts auctioned,
    the average results were as follows:

         Year        Price        %-of-Demand Contracted
         ----      --------       ----------------------
         2005     R$57.51/MWh          98.9%
         2006     R$67.33/MWH          91.7%
         2007     R$75.46/MWh          100%

    ¶7. (U) Although there is currently a surplus of energy --
    in part because recent rains have replenished the country's
    hydro reservoirs -- the auction resulted in even lower
    prices than either analysts or the GoB expected.  Investors
    and analysts responded negatively immediately after the
    auction and stock prices for many energy companies plunged;
    in the three days after the auction, the stock of
    Eletrobras (a parastatal and also the country's largest
    electricity generator) fell 21.5% and the electric power
    index on the Bovespa stock exchange fell 7.9%.  Many
    analysts expressed concern that the prices were too low for
    the state-owned companies to invest in future generating
    capacity and that the low prices would not attract private
    sector investment.  Other analysts believe, however, that
    the Bovespa's quick return to pre-auction levels indicates
    that the market initially over-reacted to the results.
    They note that the prices were still substantially higher
    than the current spot price (Reais 18.59), and that, when
    adjusted for inflation, 2007 prices approach the lower
    bounds of the system's marginal cost of expansion (at
    current exchange rates).

    TWEAKING THE AUCTION RULES
    --------------------------

    ¶8. (SBU) One of the Directors of ANEEL (the Brazilian
    Electricity Regulatory Agency), Isaac Averbuch, told
    Brasilia EconOff the low prices were the result of GoB
    rules for the auction.  Averbuch does not consider it to
    have been a true auction since the rules created a
    "permanent imbalance" between supply offered by generators
    and demand.  Indeed, by separating the auction of "old
    energy" from "new energy", the initial auction benefited
    the primarily state-owned companies whose debts were
    amortized and could thus offer lower prices.

    ¶9. (U) The state-owned companies also did not face the same
    pressure as private companies in terms of bottom-lines and
    investment returns.  During the auction itself, 6 of the 18
    participating producers reportedly dropped out after the
    first round of bids.  We are not aware of any state-owned
    companies that withdrew from the pool even as the prices
    continued to drop.  To the contrary, Eletrobras
    subsidiaries were reportedly responsible for 65% of the
    energy auctioned.  Although the GoB plays a central role in
    the auction, the distributors ultimately sign contracts
    directly with the generators.

    ¶10. (SBU) During the auction, when the prices dropped below
    a certain level, the energy companies participating could
    withdraw their energy offer from the auction.  Under more
    traditional rules, supply would have been below demand,
    forcing the price to rise again until enough power was
    offered to meet the demand.  However, the GoB created a
    mechanism that allowed it to keep forcing prices down.
    According to Averbuch, the GoB could adjust the demand to
    keep demand less than the supply so that prices would
    continue to drop.  The energy demand removed from the
    auction would then be met with power sold on the spot
    market rather than the long-term contract auction.
    PRIVATE SECTOR PERSPECTIVE
    ---------------------------

    ¶11. (SBU) U.S.-owned energy firms Duke Energy and AES told
    Sao Paulo EconOff they believe the GoB conducted the
    auction in a manner that favored state-owned generators and
    distributors.  Duke Energy Director for Regulatory Affairs
    Paulo Born lends support to Averbuch's assertion of GoB
    manipulation of the auction rules.  Born said that, in the
    second phase of the auction, the GoB lowered forecasted
    demand while state-owned generating firms offered a
    consistent supply.  This resulted in a downward pressure on
    bid prices that private companies found difficult to match.
    (Note: Although it is not clear how much of the energy
    demand was removed from the auction through this method,
    many companies withdrew their energy supplies from the
    auction as the prices dropped and not all of the demand was
    met for contracts beginning in 2005 and 2006. End Note.)
    Born described the auction as a GoB play for political
    advantage and "popular support" by holding energy prices
    down.  AES Vice President for Business Development Ricardo
    Lima told us that, although the auction resulted in lower
    than anticipated prices, the outlook for energy
    distributors has improved, citing guarantees provided for
    distribution companies under the new energy model.  He said
    the prospects for energy generation firms were still
    worrisome, and that it will likely be several years before
    the country will be able to attract new investment.

    SHORT-TERM VS. MID-TERM PROGNOSIS
    -----------------------------------

    ¶12. (SBU) The Minister of Mines and Energy has publicly
    stated that the auction results will mean lower prices for
    the consumer.  Many reporters have repeated the same
    prediction, at least for the short-term.  Lima from AES
    predicts that prices may drop 2.5%.  Averbuch, however,
    says the prices will probably not go down so much as they
    may just not rise as quickly.

    ¶13. (SBU) Averbuch, Born, Lima and other energy analysts
    predict that Brazil faces a possible shortage of energy in
    the short-term (2008-2009) similar to the crisis the
    country suffered in 2001.  This may be the case given the
    approximately 4 years a new hydroelectric plant -- the
    GoB's preferred type of power plant -- takes to progress
    from concession to operation, especially if a future
    drought leads to water shortages at the main reservoirs.
    The GoB did not solicit bids for the construction of new
    power plants during 2003 and 2004, and the press reports
    that of the 45 hydroelectric plant concessions auctioned
    between 1997 - 2002, only 21 have begun construction.  Many
    projects are delayed because of environmental licensing
    problems.  While a new thermal power plant can be built in
    2 to 3 years, the GoB policy views thermal power primarily
    as emergency back-up.

    ¶14. (SBU) In the medium-term (2010-2012), however, Averbuch
    predicts precisely the opposite problem, because in the new
    model the GoB has reserved for itself the role of
    predicting how much new generation capacity is needed.
    These predictions will be made by a newly formed and
    purportedly independent Energy Research Enterprise (EPE).
    The GoB plans to auction concessions for new power plants
    to supply energy based on the EPE energy consumption
    projections.  Averbuch fears that because the GoB will
    likely over-estimate the energy needs based on overly
    optimistic economic growth projections, Brazil may have an
    energy surplus by 2010 that will lead to a ballooning bill
    for contracted energy.

    UPCOMING "NEW ENERGY" AUCTION
    ------------------------------

    ¶15. (U) Although there is considerable concern over the
    results of the December auction, investors are watching the
    upcoming auction of "new energy" even more closely.  The
    "new energy" auction is expected in March or April for
    contracts beginning in 2008 and 2009, and the GoB will
    conduct up to four additional auctions during 2005 for
    contracts to supply estimated new future demand.  Wary of
    the timeframe to bring new generation capacity on-line, in
    the new auction the GoB will only solicit bids from
    companies with already-approved environmental licenses.
    However, according to news sources, even among companies
    with approved licenses, such as Tractebel, the decision
    whether to construct the new plants is pending the results
    of the next auction.

    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶16. (SBU) While the results of the December "old energy"
    auction were less than encouraging, existing generators had
    little option but to minimize their losses and make their
    peace with the new model.  Beyond the lower than expected
    prices, of perhaps greater concern is the apparent GoB
    manipulation of the auction rules and the influence of the
    large, state-owned energy producers.  That said, the
    outlook for private investment hinges more on the results
    of the "new energy" auction, which should show starkly how
    much confidence private investors have in the new model.

    DANILOVICH

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