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### Viewing cable 04CARACAS2728, VENEZUELA MACROECONOMIC UPDATE

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04CARACAS2728 | 2004-08-27 13:38 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Caracas

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS  CARACAS 002728

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR WHA/AND, WHA/EPSC, EB
    TREASURY FOR OASIA - GIANLUCA SIGNORELLI
    USCINCSO FOR POLAD

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EFIN PGOV VE
    SUBJECT: VENEZUELA MACROECONOMIC UPDATE

    --------
    OVERVIEW
    --------

    ¶1.  (U) Venezuela's most recently published economic
    indicators illustrate an economic rebound based on
    increasing government expenditures.  Levels of new foreign
    direct investment remain low.  A strong international
    reserves position and high average oil prices have
    contributed to reduce the country risk and facilitated the
    partial public external debt refinancing.

    ---------------
    ECONOMIC GROWTH
    ---------------

    ¶2.  (U) Total GDP increased by 23.1 percent in real terms
    during the period January-June of 2004 compared with the
    levels of economic activity registered during the same
    period of the previous year.  This is explained by depressed
    activity during the first quarter of 2003 because of the
    general strike that took place during December 2002-January
    ¶2003.  Nonetheless, GDP growth for 2004 could be more than
    10 percent, driven by the increase in 2004 public
    expenditures.  The Ministry of Finance is now predicting
    2004 GDP growth of 12 percent.

                        REAL GDP GROWTH RATE
                            (PERCENTAGE)
                        --------------------

                           OIL      NON-OIL     TOTAL

    1994                   4.6       (4.5)      (2.8)
    1995                   7.1        2.5        4.0
    1996                   7.7       (2.5)      (0.2)
    1997                   9.4        4.2        6.4
    1998                   2.0       (0.9)       0.2
    1999                  (7.4)      (5.4)      (6.1)
    2000                   3.2        3.0        3.2
    2001                  (0.9)       4.0        2.8
    2002                 (14.2)      (6.0)      (8.9)
    2003                  (2.1)      (8.1)      (7.6)
    2004 (JAN-JUN) (1)    28.5       20.7       23.1

    (1) Preliminary figures

    SOURCE:  Central Bank of Venezuela.

    ------------
    UNEMPLOYMENT
    ------------

    ¶3.  (U) First semester 2004 figures from the National
    Institute of Statistics (INE) indicate an average
    unemployment rate of 16.6 percent.  This figure represents
    2.00 million unemployed out of a labor force of 12.04
    million, and a total population of 25.86 million.  INE's
    figures are disputed by the private sector.  According to
    Consecomercio (National Retail and Services Council,
    representing the trade and services sector), the real
    unemployment rate in Venezuela exceeds 20 percent and
    affects some 2.4 million.  Shifts in the work force from the
    formal to the informal sector of the economy, which accounts
    for more than a half of the occupied working labor force,
    have mitigated unemployment to some extent.

        UNEMPLOYMENT (percentage in second semester)
        --------------------------------------------

    1996                              12.4
    1997                              10.6
    1998                              11.0
    1999                              14.5
    2000                              13.2
    2001                              12.8
    2002                              16.2
    2003                              16.8
    2004 (first semester)             16.6

    SOURCE:  GOV National Institute of Statistics (INE).

    --------------------------

    OIL PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS
    --------------------------

    ¶4.  (U) The total value of oil exports reached USD 15.05
    billion during the first semester of 2004 with an average
    export price of USD 30.43 per barrel.  Venezuela's OPEC
    production quota has been 2.99 million barrels a day since
    August 1, 2004.  Venezuela's oil production has been below
    the quota, according to OPEC figures.  Oil prices
    (Venezuelan basket) have been increasing during 2004,
    reaching a record high of USD 39.52 per barrel during the
    third week of August.
              OIL PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS (THOUSAND B/D)
              -----------------------------------------
                                   AVERAGE
                                 EXPORT PRICE   EXPORTS
           PRODUCTION(2) EXPORTS   (USD/B)    (USD MILLION)

    1996       2,984      2,752       18.4        18,523
    1997       3,248      3,052       16.3        18,180
    1998       3,279      3,116       10.6        12,111
    1999       2,950      2,785       16.0        16,419
    2000       3,060      2,791       25.9        27,884
    2001       3,044      2,711       20.2        21,574
    2002       2,567      2,432       22.0        21,530
    2003 (3)   2,330      1,963       25.7        22,052
    2004 (J-J) 2,516      2,149       30.4        15,049

    (2) Crude oil, including condensates.
    (3) Preliminary figures.

    SOURCE: Central Bank of Venezuela, Ministry of Energy and
            Mines, OPEC, and private sector estimates.

    ---------------
    MONEY SUPPLY/M2
    ---------------

    ¶5.  (U) Monetary liquidity increased 57.5 percent during
    2003, largely as a result of exchange controls.  This is the
    highest annual increase of the money supply in the last six
    years.  Most of the excess liquidity accumulated in the
    economy during these months was withdrawn by the BCV by
    allocating government bonds and certificates of deposits to
    domestic banks.  Liquidity continued growing during the
    first half of 2004 as government expenditures increased.

               MONEY SUPPLY/M2 (4)       MONETARY BASE
              --------------------  ---------------------

    End of: (million Bs.) Pct.Chg.  (million Bs.) Pct.Chg.

    1996      5,493,813     55.4      1,675,799    92.1
    1997      8,956,161     63.0      3,004,685    79.3
    1998     10,621,645     18.6      3,717,323    23.7
    1999     12,740,836     20.0      4,909,822    32.1
    2000     16,284,578     27.8      5,790,841    17.9
    2001     16,976,364      4.2      6,478,295    11.9
    2002     19,573,369     15.3      7,701,120    18.9
    2003     30,835,975     57.5     11,274,439    46.4

    2004 (5)
    JAN      30,279,535     (1.8)    10,752,425    (4.6)
    FEB      31,815,818      5.1     10,762,152     0.1
    MAR      32,311,341      1.6     13,219,845    22.8
    APR      31,934,539     (1.2)    11,049,744   (16.4)
    MAY      32,962,043      3.2     11,291,538     2.2
    JUN      34,237,954      3.9     11,994,271     6.2

    (4) M2 includes currency, demand deposits, savings
        and certificates of deposit.
    (5) Preliminary figures.

    SOURCE:  Central Bank of Venezuela.

    --------------------
    CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
    --------------------

    ¶6.  (U) The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) reported that
    consumer prices for the Caracas metropolitan area rose 21.8
    percent from July 2003 to July 2004.  Consumer prices lagged

    producer prices, however, as wholesale prices increased by
    30.6 percent during the same period.  (Note: The GOV imposed
    price controls February 11, 2003 on some primary food items,
    pharmaceuticals, and personal care products as a complement
    to the exchange control regime.) Core inflation removes the
    most volatile categories from the CPI.

       CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (1997 AVG  100) and CORE INFLATION
      --------------------------------------------- ------------
                   END OF PERIOD    PCT CHANGE   CORE INFLATION
                                                   (  change)
    1996                84.6           103.2           N/A
    1997               116.5            37.6           N/A
    1998               151.3            29.9           N/A
    1999               181.6            20.0           N/A
    2000               206.0            13.4          12.8
    2001               231.3            12.3          11.3
    2002               303.5            31.2          31.2
    2003               385.7            27.1          37.9

    2004
    JAN                395.4             2.5           1.7
    FEB                401.6             1.6           2.6
    MAR                410.2             2.1           3.6
    APR                415.6             1.3           2.0
    MAY                420.5             1.2           1.5
    JUN                428.3             1.9           1.5
    JUL                434.2             1.4           1.2

    SOURCE:  Central Bank of Venezuela.

    --------------
    INTEREST RATES
    --------------

    ¶7.  (U) Interest rates reported by the Central Bank in 2004
    continue the downward trend of 2003.  Excess liquidity
    arising from the strict application of exchange controls was
    the most important cause of this trend.  However, credit
    card consumption, mortgages, and car loan rates have been
    kept at levels that are more than double the average loan
    rate for most consumers.  The spread between lending and
    deposit rates decreased from 6.59 percent in January 2004 to
    5.55 percent in July 2004.

          AVERAGE INTEREST RATES OF THE SIX MOST IMPORTANT
                   COMMERCIAL AND UNIVERSAL BANKS
          --------------------------------------------- ---
                       Loans            Deposits
                      -------      -------------------
                                    Savings   90 days

    1996               37.22         18.36     26.85
    1997               22.16          6.84     14.62
    1998               45.21         10.25     38.02
    1999               31.89          7.05     18.90
    2000               23.91          3.35     14.80
    2001               25.64          2.40     14.13
    2002               37.08          3.90     28.29
    2003               24.05          6.17     17.58

    2004
    JAN                18.38          5.19     11.79
    FEB                18.08          4.54     10.84
    MAR                17.56          4.56     12.84
    APR                17.97          4.56     12.46
    MAY                17.68          4.43     13.11
    JUN                17.08          4.33     12.75
    JUL                17.22          4.17     11.67

    SOURCE:  Central Bank of Venezuela.

    -----------------------------------
    EXCHANGE RATES AND BCV LIQUIDATIONS
    -----------------------------------

    ¶8.  (U) The exchange control system pegged the bolivar at
    1,600/USD on February 5, 2003.  One year later, on February 7,
    2004, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank devalued the
    Bolivar 20 percent, to 1,920.00.  The National Exchange Control
    Administration (CADIVI) oversees all official foreign exchange
    transactions.  With CADIVI not supplying enough foreign exchange
    to fully meet demand, and the exchange rate remaining fixed

    despite internal inflation, a parallel market, in which dollars
    are traded at a substantial premium, has developed.  Official
    forex transaction, however, have increased dramatically in recent
    months.  The parallel market exchange rate closed at around
    2,800/USD by the middle of August 2004.

                END OF PERIOD EXCHANGE RATES (BS/USD)
                           AND BCV LIQUIDATIONS
            --------------------------------------------- ------
                                               OFFICIAL FOREX
            OFFICIAL MARKET  PARALLEL MARKET    LIQUIDATIONS
                                               (MILLIONS USD)
            ---------------  ---------------  ----------------
    1996        476.50
    1997        504.25
    1998        564.50
    1999        648.25
    2000        699.75
    2001        763.00
    2002      1,401.25
    2003      1,600.00         2,875.00           4,594.52

    2004
    JAN       1,600.00         3,076.11             943.36
    FEB       1,920.00         3,240.04             779.36
    MAR       1,920.00         3,083.54             891.95
    APR       1,920.00         2,981.48             643.39
    MAY       1,920.00         2,913.59             811.02
    JUN       1,920.00         2,622.83           1,265.83
    JUL       1,920.00         2,645.78           1,297.00

    SOURCE:  Central Bank of Venezuela, Metroeconomica, and
             Banco Provincial
    -------------------------
    MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE
    -------------------------

    ¶9.  (U) Non-oil exports increased 45.8 percent during
    January-June 2004 compared with the same period of last
    year.  (There were no exports during the general strike in
    January 2003.) According to the INE, exports of base metals
    (aluminum, steel, and others) accounted for 34.6 percent of
    total non-oil exports for the period January-May 2004,
    followed by mineral products (29.2 percent), and chemicals
    (14.7 percent).  The United States was the largest recipient
    of Venezuela's non-oil exports (38.0 percent), followed by
    Colombia (12.1 percent), and Mexico (5.2 percent).  Imports
    increased by 67.8 percent during January-June 2004 compared
    with the same period of last year.  2003 figures reflect the
    general strike of December 2002 - February 2003, and the
    fact that the approvals of foreign exchange during the first
    months of 2003, when exchange controls were put into place,
    were very slow.

                 MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE (USD MILLION)
                 ---------------------------------------
                                           January-June
                                2003      2003     2004(6)

    OIL EXPORTS  (A)           22,052    9,353    15,049

    NON-OIL EXPORTS (B)         4,809    2,068     3,016

    TOTAL EXPORTS (C)          26,861   11,421    18,065

    TOTAL IMPORTS (D)         (10,341)  (4,271)  (7,168)

    MERCHANDISE TRADE
    BALANCE (C)-(D)            16,520    7,150    10,897

    (6)  Preliminary figures.

    SOURCE: Central Bank of Venezuela.

    -------------------
    BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
    -------------------

    ¶10.  (U) Venezuela's balance of payments registered a
    surplus of USD 1.90 billion during the first semester of
    2004, compared with a surplus of USD 2.65 billion during the
    same period of last year.  Higher oil prices, exchange

    controls, and the resulting fall in imports and capital
    flights contributed to these results.  BCV Director Armando
    Leon, in comments to the press on August 2, projected a
    balance of payments surplus of USD 6-7 billion for the whole
    year 2004 if oil prices do not decrease during the rest of
    the year.

                     BALANCE OF PAYMENTS SUMMARY
                            (USD MILLION)
          --------------------------------------------- ---
                                             January-June
                                   2003     2003    2004(7)
    CURRENT ACCOUNT (A)          11,524    4,581    7,086
      EXPORTS, FOB               26,861   11,421   18,065
      IMPORTS, FOB              (10,341)  (4,271)  (7,168)
        TRADE BALANCE            16,520    7,150   10,897
      NET SERVICES AND RENT      (5,003)  (2,557)  (3,694)
      NET TRANSFERS                   7      (12)    (117)
    CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL
    ACCOUNT (B)                  (5,135)    (936)  (4,171)
      DIRECT INVESTMENT           1,338    1,490      640
      PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT       (1,348)     (68)     (41)
      OTHER INVESTMENT           (5,125)  (2,358)  (4,770)
    NET ERRORS AND
    OMISSIONS (C)                  (946)    (994)  (1,013)
    OVERALL BALANCE
    (A)(B)(C)                   5,443    2,651    1,902

    (7)  Preliminary figures.

    SOURCE:  Central Bank of Venezuela.

    ----------------------
    INTERNATIONAL RESERVES
    ----------------------

    ¶11.  (U) BCV-held international reserves increased nearly
    continuously after exchange controls were imposed in
    February 2003 until May 2004.  PDVSA's sales of dollars to
    the Central Bank were suspended in order to direct oil
    revenues to a USD 2.0 billion Social Development Fund, the
    creation of which has been very controversial.  The reserves
    dropped USD 2,509 million on August 2, after PDVSA completed
    the buyback of part of its external debt.

               INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (USD MILLIONS)
              ---------------------------------------
                          BCV       FIEM        TOTAL

    1996 DEC            15,229        -        15,229
    1997 DEC            17,818        -        17,818
    1998 DEC            14,849        -        14,849
    1999 DEC            15,164       215       15,379
    2000 DEC            15,883     4,588       20,471
    2001 DEC            12,296     6,227       18,523
    2002 DEC            12,003     2,857       14,860
    2003 DEC            20,666       700       21,366

    2004
    JAN                 21,623       701       22,324
    FEB                 21,929       702       22,631
    MAR                 22,560       702       23,262
    APR                 23,591       703       24,294
    MAY                 23,453       703       24,156
    JUN                 22,522       704       23,226
    JUL                 23,297       705       24,002

    SOURCE:  Central Bank of Venezuela.

    ------------------------------------
    CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FINANCIAL RESULTS
    ------------------------------------

    ¶12.  (U) Total ordinary expenditures increased by 81.3
    percent during the period January-May 2004 in comparison
    with the same period of last year.  Increased spending
    during 2004 has continued the same trend of expansion
    initiated in mid-2003.  This has been possible because of
    stronger oil prices, as well as higher collection of
    internal taxes.

                CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FINANCIAL RESULTS

                       (TRILLIONS OF BOLIVARS)
              -----------------------------------------
                                           January-May
                                   2002    2003   2004

    TOTAL ORDINARY REVENUES        27.0     6.9   14.9
       Oil income                  15.5     3.1    6.8
       Non-oil income              11.5     3.8    8.1

    TOTAL ORDINARY EXPENDITURES    31.5     9.1   16.5

    FISCAL DEFICIT                 (4.5)   (2.2)  (1.6)
    Sources: BCV and Metroeconomica

    ------------------
    PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT
    ------------------

    ¶13.  (U) The government actively refinanced its domestic and
    external debts during 2003.  Domestic bonds and treasury
    promissory notes dramatically increased both in the share of
    domestic banks' portfolio holdings and in the share of the
    GOV's debt.  During March 2004, the Ministry of Finance
    allocated bonds for the equivalent of USD 3.0 billion, of
    which one third were USD denominated with maturity in six
    months, while the rest were in local currency with
    maturities in 2008, 2009, and 2010.

                   PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT (USD BILLION)
           -------------------------------------------

                                      2003     2004(8)
    FOREIGN DEBT                      33.2     30.1

      CENTRAL GOVERNMENT              23.0     22.8

        RESTRUCTURED DEBT              5.8      5.7
        NON-RESTRUCTURED DEBT         17.2     17.1

      AGENCIES                         1.2      1.2

      PDVSA                            9.0      6.1

    DOMESTIC DEBT (9)                 17.9     21.5
                                      ----     ----
    TOTAL PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT          51.1     51.6

    (8) Projection.
    (9) Includes Central Bank debt.

    SOURCES: Ministry of Finance, Metroeconomica, and Santander
             Investment.

    --------------
    BANKING SYSTEM
    --------------

    ¶14.  (U) Credit demand increased during the first semester
    of 2004 as a result of the rebound of the economy, although
    at a lower level than 2002.  The percentage of past due
    loans decreased from December 2003 to June 2004.  This
    figure has been decreasing since 2002 as banks have been
    cleaning up their credit portfolios, declaring more of the
    past due loans as outright losses.

                    BANKING SYSTEM KEY INDICATORS
                            (percentages)

                               DEC 02    DEC 03    JUN 04
    Past due loans/
    gross loans                  6.76      4.47      2.81

    Credit portfolio allowance/
    past due loans             132.64    179.50    206.39

    Equity/total assets         16.08     14.44     14.45

    Net financial margin/
    average asset                5.32      6.19      7.01

    Net financial margin/

    average equity              35.65     43.95     52.87

    Net loans/
    total deposits              54.46     36.33     42.41

    Source:  SUDEBAN

    -------------------------
    DIRECT FOREIGN INVESTMENT
    -------------------------

    ¶15.  (U) The Superintendency of Foreign Investments (SIEX)
    registered new direct foreign investment in the amount of
    USD 170.5 million during the period January-April 2004.
    Although the overall investment climate remains uncertain,
    there are sectors (particularly oil, gas, and
    communications) in which new investments are contemplated.

                      DIRECT FOREIGN INVESTMENT
                          (MILLIONS OF USD)
                   -------------------------------

    1996             1,114.4
    1997               690.1
    1998             1,583.8 (10)
    1999               985.4
    2000               642.9
    2001               948.1
    2002               297.0
    2003             1,174.2 (11)

    2004
    JAN                 55.2
    FEB                 47.0
    MAR                 24.4
    APR                 43.9

    (10) Privatization of state steel company (SIDOR).
    (11) This high figure consists largely of investments in
         former state-owned telecoms giant CANTV, made in 1996,
         but for technical reasons only registered by the GOV
         in 2003.

    SOURCES:  SIEX, CONAPRI, and Metroeconomica.

    ----------------------------
    CARACAS STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX
    ----------------------------

    ¶16.  (U) The Caracas Stock Exchange (CSE) index closed at a
    record high of 28,595.46 on August 13, 2004, which was the
    working day just before the Presidential Referendum,
    increasing 28.8 percent from its close in December.  A
    primary catalyst in this rise is the use of CSE shares to
    acquire American Depositary Receipts on the New York Stock
    Exchange that are then used as foreign exchange vehicles.
    However, the CSE has also benefited from the lack of other
    investment opportunities in the broader economy.

              CARACAS STOCK EXCHANGE CAPITALIZATION INDEX
                    (DECEMBER 1993 = 1,000)
              -------------------------------------------

                        2002       2003        2004

    JANUARY           6,293.89   8,286.65   27,956.14
    FEBRUARY          6,958.39   8,509.56   27,484.76
    MARCH             6,828.04   8,506.59   26,579.69
    APRIL             6,712.57   8,631.60   25,879.34
    MAY               7,422.64  12,799.62   25,405.73
    JUNE              7,452.09  13,666.40   25,285.17
    JULY              7,134.00  14,052.35   25,611.20
    AUGUST            6,793.30  14,497.20
    SEPTEMBER         7,447.71  16,956.29
    OCTOBER           7,741.81  20,413.00
    NOVEMBER          8,015.17  21,397.36
    DECEMBER            (12)    22,203.95

    (12) The CSE was closed during December 2002 because of the
         general strike.

    SOURCE:  Caracas Stock Exchange and Metroeconomica.

    ------------------
    INTERNET RESOURCES
    ------------------

    ¶17.  INTERNET RESOURCES:

    AMEMBASSY CARACAS WEBSITE:  www.embajadausa.org.ve
    -
    EXCHANGE RATES AND INTERNATIONAL RESERVES:  www.bcv.org.ve
    -
    STOCK EXCHANGE:  www.caracasstock.com
    -
    TRADE AND LABOR FORCE STATISTICS:  www.ine.gov.ve
    -
    BUSINESS INFORMATION:  www.venamcham.org
    -
    INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES:  www.conapri.org
    -
    PETROLEUM INFORMATION:  www.pdvsa.com,
    www.mem.gov.ve
    -
    PUBLIC FINANCE INFORMATION: www.mf.gov.ve
    -
    FINANCIAL INDICATORS:  www.sudeban.gov.ve
    -
    ECONOMIC PUBLICATIONS:  www.metroeconomica.com.ve,
    www.veneconomy.com, www.bancomercantil.com,
    www.provincial.com
    -
    NEWSPAPERS:  www.eluniversal.com,
    www.el-nacional.com
    -
    LEGAL PUBLICATIONS:  www.datalegis.com.ve,
    www.bpmaw.com, www.traviesoevans.com,
    www.tpa.com.ve
    -
    VENEZUELAN GOVERNMENT: www.venezuela.gov.ve,
    www.platino.gov.ve

    McFarland

    NNNN
          2004CARACA02728 - UNCLASSIFIED

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