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### Viewing cable 04ANKARA3257, UPDATE ON THE (STALLED) PRIVATIZATION PROGRAM

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04ANKARA3257 | 2004-06-10 17:17 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ankara

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 003257

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    STATE FOR E, EUR/SE, AND EUR/IFD
    TREASURY FOR OASIA - MMILLS, RADKINS
    NSC FOR BRYZA AND MCKIBBEN

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EFIN EIND ECON TU
    SUBJECT: UPDATE ON THE (STALLED) PRIVATIZATION PROGRAM

    1.(Sbu) Summary. The travails of the Tupras privatization and
    recent meetings with Privatization Authority (PA) officials
    and other contacts confirm that Turkey,s privatization
    program continues to be plagued by PA mistakes, which opens
    the way for vested interests to use the courts to block
    privatizations and an excessive focus on the proceeds of the
    sale rather than the efficiency gains to the economy. The
    bottom line is that only one significant privatization has
    taken place since the current government came to power, and
    all the major privatizations seem to be moving at a snail's
    pace. On June 10, Finance Minister Unakitan optimistically
    claimed the GOT would realize deals worth $2.3 billion in
    2004, of which $468 million would be in cash. End Summary.

    ----------
    Overview
    ----------
    ¶2. (Sbu) Although the current Government is widely considered
    to support privatization more than previous governments, its
    track record continues to underwhelm.  In 2003 (AKP,s first
    full year in power), the GOT projected privatization proceeds
    for the year of USD four billion, and for the period 2003-06
    of 12.4 billion. 2003 was marked, however, by high-profile
    debacles--the failures of Tekel tobacco and Petkim--and slow
    motion on the other large privatizations.  Finalized deals
    totaled only some USD 900 million, most of which were small
    transactions. For 2004, GOT reduced its target for total
    sales to only USD 1.2 billion.  Trying to put the best
    possible face on the situation, at a press conference June
    10, just after the courts blocked the $1.3 billion Tupras
    privatization, Finance Minister Unakitan claimed the GOT
    would realize sales in 2004 worth $2.3 billion of which only
    $468 million would be in cash.  These estimates seem highly
    optimistic, even if the Tupras deal goes through. Just in the
    past year, the GOT 's inability to conclude three large
    privatizations has cost it $3 billion in revenues and, more
    importantly, an opportunity to accelerate the reform process
    and enhance market confidence.
    ¶3. (Sbu) In separate meetings with econoffs, Privatization
    Authority President Metin Kilci and Vice President Osman
    Ilter claimed they were proceeding as quickly as possible,
    but the subtext of the discussions was that any particular
    privatization will occur only if the sale price is
    politically palatable.
    4.(Sbu) Post has previously reported the PA,s problems with
    excessively high internal valuations, and officials, fears
    of being criticized or even prosecuted for selling below the
    internal valuation.  Moreover, senior GOT officials tend to
    focus only on the fiscal benefit to the state from the
    proceeds of the privatization, rather than on the efficiency
    gains to the economy.  PA President Kilci told us that senior
    GOT officials measure the PA's success purely in terms of
    revenue raised.
    5.(Sbu) In recent weeks, as the Tupras privatization has
    become ensnarled in the courts (see below), two post contacts
    from outside the government have privately accused the PA of
    technical and legal incompetence that leaves it open to court
    challenges from the many vested interests opposed to
    privatization.  Faik Oztrak, the former Treasury
    Undersecretary, told econcouns that the PA is required to
    accept only unconditional bids, but accepted a conditional
    bid on the Tupras deal.  Likewise, Ergun Okur, EVP of Oyak
    Group, said the PA had made mistakes in conducting the Tupras
    privatization process.
    6.(Sbu) If the privatization process seems slow now, it may
    get worse: Kilci acknowledged that the PA has about a year to
    finalize its most contentious divestitures, before political
    considerations render tough choices impossible. As set forth
    below, the PA faces a huge challenge in meeting this deadline.
    ----------------
    Tupras (Refinery)
    ----------------
    ¶7. (Sbu) Tupras has been in the PA portfolio since 1990. A
    tender last fall produced a high bid of USD 1.3 billion to a
    consortium of the Russian oil company Tatneft and the Turkish
    conglomerate, Zorlu group. The sale was originally expected
    to be concluded by the end of 2003, but the sale has been
    delayed by difficult contract negotiations and by lawsuits
    brought by Tatneft,s minority shareholders and by Tupras
    unions. Shortly after Kilci opined to us that the sale would
    be finalized by the end of June, an appeals court reinstated
    a lower court restraining order blocking the sale. While the
    PA may well be successful in its appeal to the Council of
    State, this sell-off is already being compared to the 2003
    Petkim and Tekel debacles. As Tupras is the only possible
    near-term &win8 for the PA, if the appeal is lost the PA,s
    credibility, such as it is, will be badly damaged.
    ----------------------
    Petkim (Petrochemicals)
    ----------------------
    ¶8. (Sbu) Petkim also has been in the PA portfolio since 1990.
    Though the PA had accepted the bid by the Uzan group,s
    Standart Kimya in 2003, once the Uzan group companies were
    seized over the Imar Bank collapse, Standart Kimya was unable
    to come up with the funds to make the initial payment, and
    the PA had to cancel the tender.  It then re-tendered the
    company, only to cancel the tender in January for lack of
    interest. Kilci said he hopes to announce a tender this year
    or early next year, but first he &wants to see some good
    financial statements.8 (For 2004 Q1, Petkim reported a USD
    40 million loss.) At his press conference, Unakitan said the
    PA would re-tender by the end of the year.  Comment: The
    problem with waiting for &good financial statements8 is
    two-fold: First, the wait could be long. Second, in its
    valuations PA seems to apply to earnings a much higher
    multiple than do investors. As such, as a company,s
    performance improves, it perversely becomes more difficult to
    sell, because the discrepancy between the PA,s valuation and
    those of potential purchasers is magnified. End Comment.

    ------------------------
    Erdemir (Iron and Steel)
    ------------------------
    ¶9.  (Sbu)   Erdemir has been in the PA portfolio since 1987.
    Ilter explained that the PA wants to delay the block sale of
    the state,s 50% interest in Erdemir until (a) its
    publicly-traded stock recovers the value it recently lost
    (because of what Ilter considers an overreaction by the
    market to a fall in Chinese steel purchases), (b) the Tupras
    sale is concluded (thus demonstrating the &credibility8 of
    Turkey,s privatization program), and (c) additional
    investors show interest (two have shown interest so far, but
    Ilter very much wants to see other investor interest).
    Comment:  The PA will be waiting a very long time for all
    three of Ilter,s conditions to come into alignment.
    Ilter,s caution is unfortunate: Erdemir has been profitable
    in 2003 and likely in 2004, benefiting from surging local
    demand from the booming Turkish auto and white goods sectors,
    and probably could be sold relatively quickly.  Econoff
    recently visited Erdemir,s headquarters in the Black Sea
    town of Eregli and will report septel. End Comment.
    ---------------------
    Turkish Airlines (THY)
    ---------------------
    ¶10. (Sbu) THY has been in the PA portfolio since 1990. Ilter
    explained that the PA is considering a limited public
    offering of 20-30 percent with a subsequent block sale.
    Kilci thought the IPO could be concluded before the year end.
     Ilter revealed that the Transport Minister has held up
    approval to prepare for the IPO.  According to Ilter, this is
    probably because of the Transport Minister,s irritation that
    the PA, under the authority of Finance Minister Unakitan, has
    the lead on the THY privatization.
    ----------
    Tekel (Tobacco)
    ----------
    ¶11.   (Sbu) Tekel has been in the PA portfolio since 2001.
    The GOT,s rejection last fall of the high ($1.3 billion) bid
    for Tekel,s tobacco operations has left the PA frantically
    -- and to date unsuccessfully -- searching for options. Kilci
    said that the PA is trying to develop a &more attractive
    model.8 However, the only meaningful alternative that has
    been suggested ) separate sales of individual brands -- is
    not under consideration. The privatization of Tekel,s
    smaller alcohol operations was successfully completed earlier
    in 2004, the only significant company privatized by the GOT
    in the past year.
    ----------
    Turk Telekom
    ----------
    12.(Sbu) Turk Telekom (TT) has been slated for sale since
    1998, though consideration of TT,s privatization began in
    the 1980s. TT is perhaps the most politically controversial
    of the potential privatizations, and the TT privatization
    process comes under its own special legislative framework.
    Although technically not part of the PA,s portfolio, the PA
    is involved in the TT sell-off. The GOT seems to be
    proceeding diligently to address the many problems that must
    be resolved before this sale can proceed, such as amending
    the public procurement law to allow the PA to retain a
    financial advisor for the sale. Kilci agreed that labor is
    TT,s biggest problem, and said that a bill has been
    submitted to Parliament that will aid TT,s downsizing. Kilci
    also stated, however, that the PA can best handle the labor
    problem by finding a &good customer8 for TT.

    ¶13. (Sbu) The U.S. Trade and Development agency has financed
    a U.S. consultant doing a study of TT,s information
    technology upgrade needs.  Econoffs recently met with the
    consultant, who described a company with serious systems
    problems. The consultant said TT desperately needed
    investment in new systems, and he wondered about the
    company,s ability to manage IT projects.  The consultant
    said TT had clearly underinvested for years, lacked a
    customer service mindset, and badly needs strengthened
    management, marketing and systems.
    ------------------------
    Electricity Distribution
    ------------------------
    14.(Sbu) Under the GOT,s recently-agreed energy sector
    strategy, elaborated with the help of the World Bank, the GOT
    plans to privatize some government-owned generation
    facilities and divide the country's distribution network into
    21 regions, creating a joint stock company for each region,
    and establishing regional tariffs. The difficulty is that, in
    the Eastern part of Turkey, up to 80 percent of all
    electricity is stolen.  The total loss nationwide is
    estimated at $1.75 billion annually. Thus, at present, with a
    national tariff system, the Western part of Turkey, in which
    leakage is much smaller, is subsidizing the Eastern part of
    Turkey. Kilci advised that the World Bank has now agreed with
    GOT to maintain national tariffs for five years, during which
    time the GOT expects private distribution companies to
    significantly reduce losses.

    -----------------------
    State Bank Privatization:
    ------------------------
    ¶15. (Sbu) The privatizations of state-owned Ziraat and Halk
    Banks, and of state-controlled Vakif Bank are central
    elements in IMF and World Bank programs in Turkey.  In the
    course of the negotiations over the IMF,s Seventh Review, in
    March and April, the GOT agreed with the IFI,s on a state
    bank privatization strategy for Halk and Ziraat, and
    continues to try to resolve ownership structure issues that
    prevent the privatization of Vakif.  As reported earlier, the
    strategy is to shrink Ziraat and Halk*especially their
    outsized government securities portfolios*to prepare for
    eventual privatization.  Though Halk and Ziraat management
    initially behaved contrary to the strategy, by aggressively
    competing for consumer lending business, several contacts
    have confirmed that these banks have finally been reined in
    by Treasury, and are no longer undercutting private banks,
    lending rates.  Rodrigo Chavez, the World Bank economist who
    has the lead on the state bank issue, told econoff the plan
    is for the GOT to pull $5 billion in capital out of Ziraat
    and Halk in the coming months. He said the GOT moved rather
    quickly to select an advisor, McKinsey, who is already
    working on the process.  Comment: Despite the progress, and
    Chavez, optimism, the privatization of these banks, with
    their gigantic branch networks and payrolls, is likely to be
    a very long process. End Comment.
    -------
    Comment:
    -------
    ¶16. (Sbu) Though the privatization program is seriously
    undermined by widespread anti-privatization attitudes,
    litigious labor unions, and unsympathetic and capricious
    courts, the GOT itself has yet to demonstrate that it
    understands the efficiency gains that could be obtained from
    faster privatization, or has the will and competence to speed
    up the process.  The GOT has proven adept at convincing the
    IFI,s that it is working towards privatization, while, by
    and large, only the small companies are actually transferred
    to the private sector.

    EDELMAN

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