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### Viewing cable 02KATHMANDU685, DROUGHT ASSESSMENT/MITIGATION IN WESTERN S ASIA

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
02KATHMANDU685 | 2002-04-05 04:03 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Kathmandu

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 KATHMANDU 000685

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR SA, SA/PAB, SA/INS, SA/RA AND OES/PCI (SALZBERG)
    DEPT PLEASE PASS AID/ANE (J WILSON) AND OFDA (G HAVENS)

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: SENV EAID EAGR ECON SOCI PK IN AF XD REO
    SUBJECT: DROUGHT ASSESSMENT/MITIGATION IN WESTERN S ASIA

    REFS: A) ISLAMABAD 2069  B) KATHMANDU 371  C) STATE 31622

    ¶1.  In response to ref a, the Regional Environment Office
    (REO) for South Asia in Kathmandu offers the following
    proposal on drought assessment and mitigation for selected
    regions of India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.  While we
    have used the format prescribed by ref c, REO would also
    like to submit this proposal to the South Asia Bureau for
    funding consideration under FY02 ESF (in addition to the
    proposals contained in ref b), as well as to AID/ANE and
    OFDA.  This proposal will include a rapid drought
    assessment and identification of short-to-medium term
    mitigation measures for the ongoing drought in Western
    South Asia.  It is intended to complement the Adaptive
    Strategies study, which has recently been approved for
    funding under FY01 South Asia Bureau ESF. The implementing
    agency would be the International Water management
    Institute (IMWI), with headquarters in Colombo, a regional
    office in Lahore, and project office in Vidhyanagar,
    Gujarat.

    ¶2.  IWMI's proposal as elaborated in collaboration with
    the Regional Environment Office for South Asia:

    ¶A.  Project Title: Drought Assessment and Potential for
    Mitigation in Western South Asia

    ¶B.  Department Strategic Objective:

    The project addresses several Department strategic
    objectives:

    -- To render humanitarian assistance where needed
    -- To foster regional stability
    -- To safeguard the environment
    -- To promote sustainable economic development and
    livelihoods in developing countries.

    This project aims to promote greater political, economic
    and social stability in drought-ravaged and politically
    volatile western parts of South Asia (Afghanistan,
    Pakistan and western India).  A collaborative assessment
    of current drought conditions will be followed by
    identification of tangible solutions and strategies for:
    -- Addressing immediate needs/alleviating severe impacts
    -- Addressing long term needs for mitigative measures,
    drought preparedness and sustainable water resources
    planning and management.

    ¶C. Problem/Issue:

    South and Southwest Asia has been affected by a persistent
    multi-year drought.  From a global perspective, this
    represents the largest region of persistent precipitation
    deficits over the last four years.  More than 100 million
    people have been affected in the region, with severe
    impacts being felt in Gujarat and Rajasthan states in
    India, Pakistan's Sind and Baluchistan provinces, and in
    large swaths of Afghanistan and Iran.  Political
    instability, war and economic isolation have further
    exacerbated the effects of drought.

    Afghanistan is particularly vulnerable, having witnessed
    over two decades of war and civil strife that has been
    further complicated by the operations of entrenched
    terrorist groups inside Afghanistan and the international
    action against them, as well as the recent earthquake in
    northern Afghanistan.  Pakistan has also been experiencing
    economic and social disruptions that pose difficulties for
    the Government's fight against international terrorism and
    domestic religious extremism. In India, drought and flood-
    prone Gujarat has recently seen the worst communal
    violence in a decade.

    The severity and persistence of the drought has produced a
    wide range of impacts across the region.  In many areas,
    there is widespread scarcity of potable water as well as
    depleted supplies for irrigation, industry and sanitation.
    Agricultural production has been severely affected, and
    there has been a significant reduction in the livestock
    populations that are the mainstay of subsistence
    livelihoods, especially in Afghanistan. Large population
    movements due to the combination of drought and civil
    strife have aggravated and compounded these miseries for
    communities, often with disproportionate impacts on women
    and children.

    Given the magnitude and persistence of this drought,
    severe impacts such as degradation of soil and vegetation,
    increased vulnerability to flooding, and depletion in
    groundwater stocks will likely persist even after a return
    to normal precipitation.  Reduction of seed stocks may
    also impact agricultural communities' capacity to recover
    once the drought ends.  The continuing political
    instability in the region and social and economic
    pressures may exacerbate these impacts even further.  With
    increasing population, these regions face serious problems
    of overall water shortages and scarcity that must be
    addressed immediately, because failure to act now will
    greatly compound the cost and complexity of later remedial
    efforts.

    The ability of governments in the region and international
    relief agencies to deal with this situation is constrained
    by the absence of reliable data, information networks, and
    professional and institutional capacities.  There is an
    urgent need for a full assessment of the drought situation
    and possible relief efforts, and a longer-term need to
    address the problem of overall water scarcity through
    improved and sustainable management of available water
    resources.

    The proposed project will review and update information on
    the drought situation in western parts of South Asia
    (Afghanistan, Pakistan and western India) by analyzing
    hydrological and human factors, and recommend concrete and
    tangible steps for future management of droughts: short,
    medium and long-term measures.

    However, effective use of climate information in drought
    management and response will require a sustained
    interaction between climate analysts, impact specialists,
    local planners and humanitarian relief agencies.  There is
    also an urgent need to improve the climate observation
    network in the region, as well as to develop mechanisms to
    make such data available for timely input into climate
    forecasting models.

    ¶D.  Anticipated Results:

    The project will result in the following outputs:

    -- A report assessing the drought situation in western
    parts of South Asia (Afghanistan, Pakistan and western
    India) and identifying potential solutions to alleviate
    drought stress in the short, medium, and long term.

    -- An interim "action strategy" for regional governments,
    relief agencies and local communities to manage and
    mitigate severe effects of drought.  This will include
    developing effective drought management guidelines and
    promoting appropriate land and water management
    technologies and systems to mitigate the impact of future
    droughts.

    -- An analysis of present coping strategies for droughts
    in the respective countries chosen, and lessons learned.

    -- Development of a Decision Support Tool for planning
    drought mitigation and to map out drought vulnerability
    regions, using Remote Sensing and GIS.

    -- Identification of institutional and policy gaps in
    drought management and mitigation and, with stakeholders'
    participation, suggesting ways and means to improve
    mitigation efforts.

    -- Development of a project proposal intended to lead to a
    detailed, long-term program of action involving key
    players in drought management and mitigation.

    The project will be conducted in a collaborative and
    participatory manner involving national government
    agencies, the local public and other stakeholders affected
    by the drought.  The project intends to promote a sense of
    unity and goodwill in the region as a whole and generate
    motivation to work together to fight against the common
    enemy, drought.  In particular, we expect the following
    longer-term outcomes:
    -- Improved regional coordination in assessing and
    addressing drought.

    -- Greater trust and cooperation among the three countries
    to address critical transboundary environmental
    conditions.

    ¶E.  How this project will advance U.S. interests:

    The U.S. Government's top priority is to defeat terrorism
    in all its forms.  Linked to this a vital U.S. interest in
    fostering stability in South Asia.  U.S. strategic goals
    in the region include helping to rebuild Afghanistan and
    its institutions, promoting political stability and
    democracy in Pakistan and encouraging peaceful dialogue
    between India and Pakistan.

    The knowledge, tools and information networks that this
    project will produce will further these objectives.  In
    the short term, regional governments and the international
    relief agencies will be able to take cost-effective
    measures to deal with the severe effects of drought.  In
    the medium term, timely collection, analysis and sharing
    of data, and the development and application of decision
    support tools will result in improved predictability and
    preparedness for droughts, reducing the financial and
    political costs of mitigation to society.  In the long
    term, improved and sustainable planning and management of
    water resources will contribute to a reduction of
    conflicts within societies and lessen tensions over water
    between countries.

    ¶F.  Contribution to political and economic stability:

    Senior U.S. policy makers and analysts have described
    South Asia as one of the most dangerous places in the
    contemporary world.  The long-standing dispute over
    Kashmir has dogged the two nuclear-armed rivals, India and
    Pakistan, for the greater part of the last 53 years,
    sending the two countries repeatedly into war.  At this
    moment, the bulk of the armies of the two countries are
    amassed on either side of their common border.

    In the wake of the September 11 tragedy, the global nature
    of instability in South Asia and its links to U.S.
    security have become ever more clear.  Despite the defeat
    of the Taliban and al-Qaeda forces, threats of terrorist
    attacks against American interests remain.  Religious
    extremists continue to pose a danger to Pakistan's secular
    order.

    In the long run, however, the countries of the region are
    bound to each other by shared space and common interests,
    which cannot be addressed without a degree of cooperation.
    Fortunately, the scientific community and many civil
    society organizations in both India and Pakistan are
    willing to engage each other in a constructive dialogue to
    begin to address issues of vital importance to people
    living in both countries.  The impact of the current
    drought constitutes an opportunity for professional and
    scientific circles to collaborate in dealing with this
    common problem.  At a recent conference of the South Asian
    Water Forum (SAWAF) in Katmandu, Nepal, delegates from all
    South Asian countries underlined the need for regional
    experts to work in concert to address non-political cross-
    border issues, such as water and drought management.

    For reasons of recent history, relations between Pakistan
    and the new interim government in Afghanistan are at best
    tenuous, despite the declaration of a new beginning by
    both governments.  The best way to translate good
    intentions into good practice is through confidence-
    building measures, starting with important and non-
    contentious issues such as drought management.  The
    present proposal is intended to build vital bridges of
    confidence between these neighbors whose long-term social,
    economic and environmental interest are inter-linked by
    rivers, mountains and other vital ecological systems.  The
    project will also contribute to reducing political and
    military tensions by engaging scientists, practitioners
    and policymakers from all three countries to use their
    knowledge and skills in resolving issues of common long-
    term interest to the whole region.

    ¶G. Proposed recipients of funds:

    The International Water Management Institute (IWMI) will
    be the recipient of the funds.  The proposed vehicle for
    obligating the funds is a grant to the Headquarters of
    IWMI, located in Colombo, Sri Lanka.  IWMI - HQ will
    manage and account for the funds and implement the project
    through its regional office in Lahore, Pakistan and
    project office in Vidhyanagar, Gujarat, India.

    ¶H. Detailed project Description:

    Purpose and Objectives:

    The purpose of the project is to carry out a rapid
    scientific assessment of the drought situation in the
    region and recommend concrete and tangible solutions:
    immediate, medium and long-term measures to address the
    problem.  The project will also be an effort to prepare
    the groundwork for a larger initiative, linking local and
    regional efforts in drought management to global networks
    in climate forecasting and improving disaster relief
    planning and operations.

    The project has two specific objectives:

    (1) Develop an interim "action strategy" for managing and
    mitigating the severe effects of drought for regional
    governments, relief agencies and local communities.  This
    will include developing effective drought management
    guidelines and promoting appropriate land and water
    management technology and management systems to mitigate
    the impacts of future droughts, and

    (2) Develop a detailed proposal for a regional initiative.
    With support from donors, international research
    organizations, and development banks, this would bring
    together expertise from several related fields, bridge
    gaps in current knowledge, and establish a framework for
    researchers, practitioners, and policymakers to develop
    and implement an effective drought management plan in the
    region.   Especially in Afghanistan, capacity-building is
    an important need not yet built-in as a specific objective
    for this project, but to be included in the larger
    initiative.

    Research sites:

    The project will focus on three typical provinces of the
    chosen countries where drought occurs frequently.  The
    possible candidate sites are Kutch or Saurashtra region in
    Gujarat, India; Baluchistan or Sind in Pakistan; and Balkh
    or Faryab provinces in Afghanistan.

    Research Methodology and activities:

    Many quantitative measures of drought have been developed,
    of which the most frequently used are those developed by
    Wayne Palmer of U.S.A. in the 1960s.  These include the
    Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the Palmer
    Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), the Palmer Z-index and
    the Crop Moisture Index (CMI).  Among these, the PDSI is
    superior in that it accounts not only for precipitation
    totals, but also for temperature, evapotranspiration,
    surface run off and soil recharge. The CMI measures short-
    term agricultural drought on a weekly scale. The project
    will use these and other advanced techniques to measure
    the severity of the drought situation in the region.  The
    project will:

    -- Review long term hydrological, meteorological and human-
    related factors affecting drought, and will carry out an
    analysis of drought characteristics, frequency of
    occurrence, severity, and management- institutional- and
    policy-related gaps in drought mitigation programs.

    -- Study the coping strategies adopted by various
    stakeholders in mitigating the drought and document what
    happens during a drought, as this is the time people learn
    (or don't learn) how to adapt to shortages. Such research-
    based information would be useful in facing future
    droughts.

    -- Assess hot spots through the use of remote sensing and
    field surveys to study crop failure, the variety of means
    adopted to relieve water shortages, out-migration
    (including movement of cattle and livestock), and coping
    strategies for meeting drinking water requirements.

    -- Document successful innovative procedures adopted by
    people, NGOs, government agencies and aid-agencies in
    mitigating drought and disseminate this information
    through cross-border exchanges.

    -- Rely mainly on secondary data collected from various
    sources, in addition to carrying out selected field survey
    using techniques such as process documentation,
    questionnaire surveys, and focus group discussions with
    actors involved in the process at all levels.  Data will
    also be collected using remote sensing techniques.  All
    collected data will be put into a GIS format to develop a
    Decision Support Tool.

    IMWI will conduct a final workshop during which national
    government agencies, international experts, donor
    representatives, and national and international disaster
    relief organizations will discuss suggestions advanced,
    exchange information and chart out a "Way Forward."

    ¶I. Performance targets and period of performance:

    Preparation:
    (1) Identification and consultation with key players and
    stakeholders: 2 months
    (2) Final selection of the research sites: 3 months
    (3) Fine-tune research methodology, research questions and
    computer models: 3 months

    Implementation:
    (1) Data collection and analysis: 6 months
    (2) Draft report on the assessment of the drought
    situation: 9 months
    (3) Draft report on coping strategies, assessing the
    capacity and effectiveness of respective agencies as well
    as community efforts: 12 months

    Completion and dissemination:
    (1) Development of a Decision Support Tool for planning
    drought mitigation and mapping out drought vulnerability
    regions, using Remote Sensing and GIS: 18 months
    (2) Identification of institutional and policy gaps in
    drought management and mitigation and, with stakeholders'
    participation, suggesting ways and means to improve
    mitigation efforts: 18 months
    (3) Development of a project proposal intended to lead to
    a detailed action program for long-term drought management
    in the region: 18 months

    ¶J.  Assumptions:

    The security situation inside Afghanistan will improve
    sufficiently in the coming months for scientific personnel
    to travel and to collect relevant data.

    The government of Afghanistan will develop adequate
    capacity to participate meaningfully in the final workshop
    and subsequent multi-party initiative.

    Diplomatic approaches can overcome barriers to travel
    between India and Pakistan, in order to permit the
    meaningful participation of Indian and Pakistani partners.
    Alternatively, a neutral venue such as Kathmandu could be
    selected.

    ¶K. Total proposed cost: USD 343,600.

    ¶L. Funding request:

    Item                   Unit     Cost    Quantity  Total

    ¶1. Senior research
    personnel              Day      650     150      97,500

    ¶2. Mid-level research
    personnel              Day      450     90       40,500

    ¶3. Travel/per diem     Trip     1000    30       30,000

    ¶4. Consumables,
    satellite images, etc  L/S      5,000             5,000

    ¶5. Workshop            Number   30,000  1        30,000

    ¶6. Sub-total                                    203,000

    ¶7. Administrative Cost (15 percent of Subtotal)  30,450

    ¶8. Contingencies (5 percent of Subtotal)                   10,150

    ¶9. Contract research through partners           100,000
    ¶10. Total                                       343,600

    Schedule of disbursement

    Two equal installments, disbursed at the start and middle
    of the 18-month project period.

    ¶M. Principal Partners

    -- International Water Management Institute
    -- Global Water Partnership
    -- Care International
    -- Disaster relief and water resources affiliated agencies
    of respective governments
    -- International relief agencies such as OFDA, Red Cross
    and others
    -- Multilateral/bilateral donors
    -- USGS
    -- NOAA
    -- Institute for Social and Environmental Transition

    ¶N.  Roles and resources partners will contribute:

    The International Water Management Institute (IWMI) will
    be the lead agency for implementing this project.  IWMI is
    an international non-profit research organization
    specialized in water and land management.  IWMI is part of
    a global coalition of 16 international agricultural
    research centers, collectively known as the Consultative
    Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), or
    Future Harvest Centers.  IWMI has extensive experience in
    finding and promoting integrated and sustainable solutions
    to water problems, with a bias for river basins as
    appropriate units of water management.  With its head
    offices located in Colombo, Sri Lanka, and regional and
    country offices in over 15 locations in Asia and Africa,
    IWMI has a team of over 150 scientists, making it the
    largest international organization scientific in the
    developing world in the field of water management.  IWMI
    has strong professional presence in Pakistan and India,
    and is part of a new CGIAR initiative for the agricultural
    revival of Afghanistan.

    Other partners:

    The project will be implemented in collaboration with
    disaster prevention and water management agencies in all
    three countries.  International research, development and
    relief agencies will also cooperate, including the Global
    Water Partnership (GWP) and its regional and country
    chapters in South Asia, the Aga Khan Rural Support Program
    (AKRSP) India and CARE International.

    Global Water Partnership (GWP) is a global initiative
    dedicated to promoting best policies and practices in
    integrated water resource management.  With a small
    secretariat in Stockholm, and three resource centers, of

    SIPDIS
    which IWMI is one, GWP is a decentralized network of
    independent stakeholders, including national governments,
    research and non-profit organizations, NGOs, UN agencies,
    multilateral banks, private companies, and other
    institutional stakeholders involved in water resource
    management.  The GWP facilitates the exchange of
    knowledge, experience and the practice of integrated water
    resource management.  GWP has active country water
    partnerships in both India and Pakistan.

    AKRSP (I) is a community-based rural development
    initiative in Gujarat state with extensive experience in
    developing and promoting cost-effective water management
    techniques and technologies.

    CARE International has an on-going agreement with IWMI to
    collaborate on projects designed to serve smallholders in
    water-stressed areas.  The major focus of this partnership
    is on developing and promoting cost-effective technologies
    and management methods, such as water harvesting, storage
    and application.  The two organizations plan to join hands
    in assessing the needs and developing appropriate
    responses to water and agricultural problems in
    Afghanistan.

    Multilateral and bilateral donors and investment banks
    will be presented with project proposal for a larger
    initiative required to address chronic drought conditions
    in the region.  We expect that some of these donors will
    be interested in funding elements identified in the
    proposal which address their priorities, such as poverty
    alleviation and environmental management.

    In addition, the project will seek to develop close links
    with international, regional and national players in the
    fields of climate and drought monitoring,
    mitigation/relief, and water management.  The project will
    also seek technical cooperation from USG agencies involved
    in drought assessment, including OFDA, USAID, NOAA, and
    USGS.  The project will coordinate closely with ISET's
    Adaptive Strategies study (funded through South Asia
    Bureau ESF) to share results and experience, and to avoid
    duplication of effort.

    ¶O. OES sponsoring Office: OES/PCI

    MALINOWSKI

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