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### Viewing cable 05PRETORIA3923, SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05PRETORIA3923 | 2005-09-23 14:52 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Pretoria

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

    231452Z Sep 05

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 003923

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR AF/S/MTABLER-STONE; AF/EPS; EB/IFD/OMA
    USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/MAC/AME/OA/DIEMOND
    TREASURY FOR OAISA/RALYEA/CUSHMAN
    USTR FOR COLEMAN
    PARIS FOR NEARY

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON EINV EFIN ETRD BEXP KTDB PGOV SF
    SUBJECT:  SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER
              September 23 2005 ISSUE
     ¶1. Summary.  Each week, Embassy Pretoria publishes an
     economic newsletter based on South African press reports.
     Comments and analysis do not necessarily reflect the
     opinion of the U.S. Government.  Topics of this week's
     newsletter are:

     -  Credit Blacklist Review;
     -  IMF Report on South Africa;
     -  IMF Increases Growth Prospects for Africa;
     -  Business Confidence Up Despite Oil Prices;
     -  Water Price Increases Expected;
     -  Manuel Complains About SMME Underspending; and
     -  SA Concludes Free Trade Agreement with EFTA.
     End Summary.

     CREDIT BLACKLIST REVIEW
     -----------------------

     ¶2.  The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) introduced
     a new clause in the National Credit Bill, still being
     considered by Parliament, requiring DTI to produce
     regulations on how the credit bureaus maintain, verify and
     remove information about consumer debt.  Proponents of
     removing all negative credit data from credit bureaus'
     databanks assert that blacklisting results in further
     indebtedness of the poor, who are then charged much higher
     interest rates using unconventional loan sources.  DTI
     proposals include the deletion of default and judgment
     information for amounts under R100 within the first three
     months of the regulations' implementation and a one-time
     deletion of information on paid-up judgments older than
     three years.  Source:  Business Day, September 19.

     IMF REPORT ON SOUTH AFRICA
     --------------------------

     ¶3.  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its
     annual Article IV report on South Africa, projecting 3.4
     percent growth over the next five years without any major
     policy interventions.  The IMF report praised the short-
     term South African economic outlook, but noted that South
     Africa faces major long-term challenges, namely high
     unemployment, widespread poverty and high prevalence of
     HIV/AIDS.  Several recommendations for increasing economic
     growth and job creation included: relaxing centralized
     collective bargaining, simpler minimum wage system, and
     streamlining dismissal procedures; further liberalization
     of tariffs; and increased privatization of state-owned
     enterprises.  The report described several possible growth
     scenarios, with one scenario accelerating structural
     reforms (labor market reform, trade liberalization, public
     enterprise reforms with increased privatization) and
     another scenario highlighting South Africa's public sector
     debt sustainability.  The IMF report asserted that if
     accelerated reforms were enacted, South African growth
     would reach 5.5 percent by 2010 and the unemployment rate
     would fall to 18.3 percent from its current level of 26.5
     percent.  The scenario testing of South Africa's debt
     sustainability concluded that South Africa's external debt
     position and financing needs are robust to a range of
     shocks, reflecting a relatively low level of debt and
     favorable debt structure.  Source:  Sunday Times,
     September 18; Business Day, September 19; www.imf.org.

     IMF INCREASES GROWTH PROSPECTS FOR AFRICA
     -----------------------------------------

     ¶4.  Despite HIV/AIDS, the working-age population in sub-
     Saharan Africa should increase substantially in the next
     40 years, holding out welcome prospects for faster growth
     and healthier investment, according to the International
     Monetary Fund (IMF).  In its twice-yearly World Economic
     Outlook, the IMF predicted that sub-Saharan African
     economic growth should reach 5.9 percent in 2006, compared
     to 4.8 percent and 5.4 percent in 2005 and 2004,
     respectively.  Growth of 5.9 percent would be the
     strongest expansion in sub-Saharan Africa since the early
     1970s.  The IMF attributed the expected slowdown in 2005
     to weaker rises in non-oil commodity prices than were
     enjoyed in 2004, notably in the cotton sector.  Favorable
     2006 growth prospects are explained by the start of
     operations at new oil production facilities in Angola and
     Mauritania and higher oil production in Nigeria.  People
     of working age today account for slightly under 55 percent
     of the overall population, whereas that figure was closer
     to 50 percent in 1990.  But in 2050, according to the IMF,
     sub-Saharan Africa's working-age population should
     constitute 65 percent of the total.  The report described
     South Africa's prospects as favorable, with growth
     projected at 4.3 percent in 2005 from 3.7 percent in 2004,
     but decreasing to 3.9 percent in 2006.  Risks to South
     Africa's growth include deterioration in commodity export
     prices, elevated housing prices and high unemployment.
     Nigerian growth is expected to slow to 3.9 percent this
     year from 6 percent in 2004, and improve to 4.9 percent in
     ¶2006.  Source:  SAPA-AFP, Business Report, September 22.
     BUSINESS CONFIDENCE UP DESPITE OIL PRICES
     -----------------------------------------

     ¶5.  Business confidence rose to near 24-year highs in the
     third quarter, buoyed by strong domestic demand and low
     interest rates, despite steep oil prices and domestic
     strikes.  The index, which is compiled by the Bureau for
     Economic Research at Stellenbosch University, and
     sponsored by Rand Merchant Bank (RMB), rose to 86 points
     in the third quarter 2005, compared to 82 in the previous
     quarter.  Business confidence has been in positive for 15
     successive quarters, and the index reached a 23-year
     record of 88 in the third quarter of 2004.  Confidence in
     the manufacturing sector increased in the third quarter,
     to 68 from 61 in the second quarter, surprising many
     analysts.  During the previous 18 months business
     confidence in manufacturing remained in the low 60s, far
     below other sectors, which had readings between 80 and 90.
     The strong rand over the past three years has impacted
     exports of the manufacturing sector (accounting for about
     16 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).  The recovery
     in the manufacturing sector has also been reflected in
     Statistics SA's latest GDP figures.  The sector grew 7.3
     percent in the second quarter, after contracting 1.9
     percent in the first quarter.  Confidence rose in four out
     of five of the sectors covered for the index.  In addition
     to the manufacturing sector, new vehicles dealers'
     confidence increased to 99 from 94 in the second quarter.
     The building sector recorded confidence of 94,
     wholesalers' confidence rose to 84, while retailers'
     sentiment remained largely unchanged at 85.  Source:
     Business Day, September 21.

     WATER PRICE INCREASES EXPECTED
     ------------------------------

     ¶6.  The South African government was considering
     increasing water prices to reduce waste by the country's
     bulk water users, according to Water Affairs and Forestry
     Minister Buyelwa Sonjica.  Price increases were likely to
     come into effect with the new national water-pricing
     strategy in July 2006.  The expected increases will affect
     commercial farmers, municipalities, electricity utility
     Eskom, forestry companies and companies such as Sasol.
     The changes will apply to raw or untreated water.
     Commercial farmers currently pay about 3 rand cents a
     cubic meter to extract water for irrigation, one of the
     lowest costs in the world, considering government's
     expenditure on infrastructure such as dams.  Irrigation
     accounts for 50 percent of South African water use.
     Sonjica said an increase in the tariffs was likely to
     force the industrial sectors to reduce their water use.
     The closing date for comment on the proposed reforms is
     September 30.  Source:  Business Day, September 21.

     MANUEL COMPLAINS ABOUT SMME UNDERSPENDING
     -----------------------------------------

     ¶7.  Finance minister Trevor Manuel said that the
     government had set aside R1.4 billion ($222 million, using
     6.3 rands per dollar) in 2005 to help small, medium and
     micro enterprises (SMMEs), but not enough money was
     filtering through to the small business sector.  Manuel's
     comments came on the same day that the Department of Trade
     and Industry (DTI) was to present to the cabinet a new
     strategy aimed at revitalizing the SMME sector.  The
     strategy, which seeks to reduce red tape, improve access
     to finance for SMMEs, and advance black economic
     empowerment, is likely to result in extra funding request
     by DTI.  However, Manuel seemed to think that the R1.4
     billion was adequate, as the government had to focus its
     resources on other priority areas such as health,
     education and housing.  Manuel stated that the days of
     granting tax incentives to large industrial projects that
     did not create jobs were over.  The strategic investment
     program has been cut, after it created 7,000 direct and
     110,000 indirect jobs.  Treasury also cut plans to
     introduce special tax incentives in the country's four
     industrial development zones, which the DTI had hoped
     would boost their investor appeal.  Since their beginning
     in the late 1990s, the four zones (Coega, near Port
     Elizabeth, East London, Johannesburg and Richards Bay)
     have attracted less than R3.5 billion in planned
     investments despite the government spending more than R4
     billion on building their infrastructure.  Source:
     Business Day, September 22.

     SA CONCLUDES FREE TRADE AGREEMENT WITH EFTA
     -------------------------------------------

     ¶8.  South African exports will have duty-free access to
     European Free Trade Association (EFTA) members starting
     next year under a recently concluded free-trade agreement.
     EFTA members are Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and
     Liechenstein.  South Africa already agreed to a free-trade
     agreement with the European Union.  The agreement allows
     South African clothing manufacturers to use imported
     fabric and still qualify for the duty-free and quota-free
     access to EFTA markets.  Negotiations started early in
     2003 and the goal is for the agreement to become effective
     July 2006.  Southern Africa Customs Union negotiators look
     to restart free trade talks with the United States next
     week in Gaborone.  Source:  Business Day, September 22.

     TEITELBAUM

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