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### Viewing cable 04ANKARA1607, AGREEMENT WITH IMF ON DRAFT LETTER OF INTENT,

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04ANKARA1607 | 2004-03-17 15:25 | 2011-08-24 01:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Ankara

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

    171525Z Mar 04

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001607

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    STATE FOR E, EUR/SE, EB/IFD
    TREASURY FOR OASIA - JLEICHTER AND MMILLS
    NSC FOR MBRYZA AND TMCKIBBEN

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EFIN ECON PGOV TU
    SUBJECT: AGREEMENT WITH IMF ON DRAFT LETTER OF INTENT,
    CENTRAL BANK CUTS RATES

    REF: A. ANKARA 1319
         ¶B. ANKARA 1578

    ¶1. (Sbu) Summary: Deputy ResRep confirmed to Econoffs that
    the IMF and GOT have reached agreement on a draft letter of
    intent (LOI), with only minor follow-up steps needed for the
    GOT to sign the actual LOI.  Not coincidentally, on March 17
    the Central Bank cut overnight interest rates by 2 percentage
    points.  Two-thirds of the fiscal gap was filled from
    expenditure reduction and one-third from increased excise tax
    revenues on tobacco, alcohol, petroleum products, and
    liquified petroleum gas.  After much discussion, natural gas
    and electricity taxes and prices were not increased.  The
    Deputy ResRep admitted the quality of the fiscal adjustment
    was not good, but said there were few near-term alternatives
    to the measures taken.  The GOT has also committed to
    promulgate bankruptcy regulations, appoint the head of a
    commission to study the Imar Bank failure, and take steps
    towards state bank privatization.  The IMF program will have
    only three more reviews, each with a $660 million
    disbursement, with the final board vote scheduled for January
    ¶2005.  The GOT seems increasingly open to an IMF role after
    ¶2004. End Summary.

    Agreement Reached on a Draft LOI:
    --------------------------------

    ¶2. (Sbu) In a March 16 meeting, IMF Deputy Resident
    Representative Christoph Klingen confirmed press reports that
    the recently-departed Seventh Review Mission had reached
    agreement with the GOT on a draft LOI.  As with past reviews,
    Klingen said there were some follow-up actions the GOT needed
    to take before they could finalize the LOI, but that these
    were not major.

    ¶3. (Sbu)  Klingen specified that, other than some minor
    procedural actions, the GOT needed to take three steps before
    the Seventh Review could go to the IMF Board: appoint the
    head of a commission to study the Imar Bank collapse, a
    longstanding IMF demand; withdraw capital from state-owned
    Ziraat Bank, and, depending on the structure of the planned
    Halk Bank-Pamuk Bank merger, from Halk Bank; and promulgate
    regulations implementing the new bankruptcy law passed by
    parliament in February.

    End-game of the Fiscal Gap Saga:
    -------------------------------

    ¶4. (Sbu) After months of complex negotiations over measures
    to close the fiscal gap, the Fund and GOT finally agreed to a
    package with two-thirds of the gap made up from the
    expenditure side and one-third from increased revenues.  As
    previously reported, the gap was opened by a combination of
    shortfalls in 2003 and the Prime Minister's decision to
    increase the minimum wage and pension payments.  Klingen
    specified that the Fund stuck with its estimate of a TL 7
    Quadrillion (about 1.75% of GDP) gap, declining to get into a
    debate over the appropriateness of its estimate. Klingen said
    the GOT still did not have final 2003 data for the entities
    outside the Central Government.  For the Central Government
    the 5 percent primary surplus target had been slightly
    exceeded, but when final numbers are available for the
    Consolidated Public Sector the Fund expects a primary surplus
    of 6.2 percent of GDP, a slight shortfall from the 6.5
    percent target.

    ¶5. (Sbu) On the spending side, the gap-filling measures
    totalled TL 4.4 Quadrillion, according to Klingen, with TL
    3.9 Quadrillion from the 13 percent across-the-board cut in
    discretionary spending, and TL 500 Trillion in earmarked
    spending from the Special Revenue accounts.  Klingen said
    these accounts, which are being brought on-budget by the
    Public Financial Management on Control Law, consist largely
    of university and other school expenditures, drawing on
    earmarked school fees.

    ¶6. (Sbu) On the revenue side, Klingen shed light on the
    ever-changing and sometimes contradictory press reports.  In
    the end, the package includes increased tax revenues from
    tobacco products, petroleum products, alcohol, and liquid
    petroleum gas.  In recent weeks, Energy Minister Guler had
    repeatedly denied press reports that natural gas and
    electricity prices would be increased, and Klingen confirmed
    that natural gas and electricity were not in the final
    package.  He said the Fund had advocated inreased excise
    taxes on natural gas.  In the end, Klingen said the GOT had
    pushed for only raising taxes on Liquified Petroleum Gas
    (LPG), because LPG prices had fallen 25 percent on
    international markets such that the GOT could more easily
    assess higher taxes.  He said the IMF had reluctantly agreed,
    subject to review in six months.  Klingen pointed out
    however, that the budget assumed natural gas  prices would
    rise over the course of 2004 in line with projected wholesale
    price inflation, so the GOT may need to raise gas prices
    later in the year.

    ¶7. (Sbu) Klingen explained that the revenue increase from
    tobacco derives from price increases rather than a higher tax
    rate.  The additional revenue from tobacco products is
    expected to be about TL 1.1 Quadrillion.  He said that with
    most of the end price to the consumer deriving from VAT and
    other excise taxes on tobacco products, a price increase has
    a significant tax collection impact.  Klingen confirmed that
    the Fund's initial idea of increasing tax rates had led to
    GOT fears that state-owned Tekel might be hurt if its private
    competitors did not fully pass on the tax increases to
    customers.  The GOT solved the problem by "talking to" the
    private companies and getting them to raise their prices.
    Klingen admitted this was not an ideal approach but was one
    of the compromises the Fund went along with.  Klingen added
    that the IMF insisted that in August, any end-user price
    increase will come from increasing excise taxes rather than
    prices.

    Quality of Fiscal Adjustment:
    ----------------------------

    ¶8. (Sbu) Klingen admitted that the quality of the fiscal
    adjustment was "not good."  He argued that the GOT decision
    to raise the minimum wage and pension payments had left few
    good options in the short run.  Over a longer time horizon,
    the Fund was working on improving tax collection.  Klingen
    said the GOT is also due to have a Public Expenditure Review
    under its IFI programs.  Though normally conducted by the
    World Bank, the IMF felt the review should not wait and is
    taking the lead on an initial review in the coming months,
    followed by a fuller World Bank-led review later in the year.

    Banking Issues:
    --------------

    ¶9. (Sbu) Klingen said the LOI specifies an ambitious schedule
    for the revisions to the Banking Act, calling for the
    introduction to parliament before the summer recess.  The
    changes would provide for better coordination between off-
    and on-site bank inspection, immunities for BRSA and SDIF
    staff for their official acts, and a tightening of the "fit
    and proper" criteria for bank owners.  Klingen said the Fund
    now has more faith in BRSA Chairman Bilgin.  The new SDIF
    leadership seems to be moving in the right direction, but
    Klingen said that the Fund's Bank experts have doubts about
    the SDIF leaders' competence. Regarding the continued
    attempts of failed bank owners to come back into the banking
    system, Klingen said IMF M.D. Kohler had warned Prime
    Minister Erdogan about the Demir Bank case, and that the
    delay in the Court of Accounts' decision on Demir may be a
    positive sign.  Klingen said the Fund is monitoring Cukurova
    Group, who might try to play newly-separated BRSA and SDIF
    off against each other.

    ¶10. (Sbu) Klingen said the Bankruptcy legislation was a
    longstanding IMF requirement and that bankers had fought a
    provision spelling out the mechanism for a pre-packaged
    bankruptcy feature facilitating out-of-court settlements.
    The bankers believed that if the law got too specific about
    the mechanism it would undermine banks' leverage in debt
    workouts.  According to Klingen, having lost the battle over
    the legislation, bankers might try a rearguard action on the
    implementing regulations, hence the IMF's requirement that
    the regulations be announced before the IMF Board vote.

    Fewer IMF Reviews:
    -----------------

    ¶11. (Sbu) With the schedule of reviews pushed back by the
    delays in the Fifth, Sixth and Seventh Reviews, the IMF and
    GOT agreed to shrink the number of reviews remaining under
    the existing Standby.  Instead of five, there will be three
    more reviews, with each releasing a $660 million--rather than
    $500 million--disbursement.  Klingen said the final review
    would be negotiated in December but would not go to the Board
    until January 2005.

    Post-program IMF role:
    ---------------------

    ¶12. (Sbu) Klingen said the GOT is showing increasing signs of
    accepting an IMF role beyond the end of the Standby.  At a
    minimum, IMF rules require a post-program monitoring
    arrangement for countries having borrowed over 100 percent of
    their quota.  In Turkey's case, Klingen said the Board would
    probably require three or four reviews a year under such an
    arrangement.  One step up from such post-program monitoring
    would be a Precautionary Standby.  Klingen said Babacan has
    said the GOT will take a decision in mid-year.

    Central Bank Cuts Rates:
    -----------------------

    ¶13. (Sbu) Undoubtedly because of the agreement with the IMF,
    the Central Bank announced a 200 basis point rate cut March
    ¶17.  The Central Bank's press release said nothing about the
    IMF, but highlighted the importance of fiscal policy
    complementing monetary policy, and even sounded a
    Greenspanesque note favoring spending-side cuts over tax
    increases.   Many private analysts have been saying for some
    time that a rate cut is overdue based on fundamentals, and
    the markets had clearly priced in the cut: rates on
    government securities hardly budged after the Central Bank
    announcement. The timing, coupled with Governor Serdengecti's
    frequent private comments to econoffs about the need to
    maintain pressure on the Government over fiscal policy and
    the IMF program, suggests the Bank waited for agreement on a
    LOI to announce the cut.

    EDELMAN

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