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### Viewing cable 05TAIPEI1090, MEDIA REACTION: CHINA'S ANTI-SECESSION LAW

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05TAIPEI1090 | 2005-03-14 23:22 | 2011-08-23 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | American Institute Taiwan, Taipei

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 001090

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD -
    ROBERT PALLADINO
    DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
    SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CHINA'S ANTI-SECESSION LAW

    ¶1. Summary: Major newspapers in Taiwan continue to
    scrutinize the progress and possible impact of China's
    anti-secession law. Taiwan newspapers played up
    comments made by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
    that maintain that the law clearly raises cross-Strait
    tensions and several reported on possible moves the
    United States would take following the legislation of
    the law.  The centrist "China Times," in a Washington
    dispatch on page three, reported March 14 that
    Secretary of State Rice might urge Beijing to make a

    SIPDIS
    good-will gesture toward Taiwan when she visits China
    later this month. The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily,"
    in a page-three story March 14, quoted sources close to
    President Chen Shui-bian as saying Taiwan is likely to
    adjust its cross-Strait policy in the wake of the
    legislation of the anti-secession law.

    ¶2.  A news analysis in the pro-independence "Liberty
    Times" said Beijing's mention of using non-peaceful
    means to resolve the Taiwan issue will force the United
    States, Japan and European Union to seriously ponder
    the possibility of a war breaking out in the Taiwan
    Strait -- and, as a result of this contemplation, to
    seriously consider strengthening their county's
    cooperation with Taiwan.  A "Taiwan Daily" article by
    Washington correspondent James Wang urged Washington
    and Tokyo to review their obsolete "one China" policies
    and to look into the fact of Taiwan's democratization
    and China's hegemonic mindset.  The editorial of the
    limited-circulation, pro-independence "Taiwan News"
    also urged the Chen Shui-bian administration to seek
    more explicit support from the international community,
    especially from the United States and Japan, to protect
    Taiwan's hard-won democracy in the face of Beijing's
    militarism and unilateralism.

    ¶3.  The centrist "China Times," on the other hand,
    suggested in its editorial that both the ruling and
    opposition parties in Taiwan recognize and treat the
    "Republic of China" as the greatest common denominator.
    By doing so, the editorial said, it will all the more
    highlight the flaw in legitimacy of Beijing's anti-
    secession law.  A "United Daily News" news analysis
    questioned the Chen Shui-bian administration's plan to
    hold a mass rally on March 26 because it is unsure
    whether such a move will lead to confrontation or
    reconciliation across the Taiwan Strait.  A limited-
    circulation, pro-unification, English-language "China
    Post" editorial said one can foresee strained relations
    across the Taiwan Strait as well as some uncertainty in
    Washington-Beijing ties in the aftermath of the passage
    of the anti-secession law.  End summary.

    A) "Taiwan Should Make More Prior Arrangements for
    Cross-Strait Situation"

    Washington correspondent Nadia Tsao wrote in the pro-
    independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 800,000]
    (3/13):

    ". It is understood that the United States not only
    does not support the anti-secession law, but also
    lobbies Japan, New Zealand, Australia, and the European
    Union countries such as the United Kingdom to express
    their concerns [toward China].  It is clear for the
    international community that Taiwan at best can trigger
    a war once it declares independence, but it is China
    that is solely capable of waging a war [in the Taiwan
    Strait].

    "Beijing's attempt to adopt anti-secession law,
    especially the non-peaceful measures to solve the
    Taiwan issue, will force the United States, Japan, and
    the European Union to seriously ponder on the
    possibility of a war breaking out across the Taiwan
    Strait.  They will also contemplate on the contingency
    plans and the possible damage a cross-Strait war may
    bring to the entire regional balance, and as a result,
    their cooperation with Taiwan would only be
    strengthened.  Former U.S. Secretary of State Collin
    Powell once said the way Beijing adopts to resolve the
    cross-Strait issue will influence how other countries
    view China's emergence.  China's insistence on pushing
    for the passage of the anti-secession law is in reality
    promoting the credibility of the China threat theory to
    the international community.  Other than making use of
    the current situation and putting hope in the United
    States and Japan, Taiwan should work harder on its
    relations with the Asian countries which still keep
    silent or even acquiesce to China's position."

    B) "The International Community Should Take Actions to
    Counter and to Balance China's Anti-secession Law"

    Washington correspondent James Wang wrote in the
    "Washington Review" column of the pro-independence
    "Taiwan Daily" [circulation: 150,000] (3/14):

    ". No matter how China tries to explain or cover it up,
    the anti-secession law does not merely involve issues
    concerning Taiwan's interests, but also seriously
    provokes Washington's understanding of the
    normalization of U.S.-China relations, the United
    States' vital interests as well as its laws.  The anti-
    secession law has fundamentally challenged two major
    U.S. policies toward the Taiwan Strait: the facts that
    the United States has not acknowledged China or PRC's
    sovereignty over Taiwan, and that cross-Strait
    differences should be solved peacefully. .

    "The United States and Japan should re-evaluate the out-
    of-date `one China' policy, and review again the fact
    of Taiwan's democratization and the wills of the people
    in Taiwan.  They should also face China's hegemonic
    mentality and its attempt to ruin the more than 50
    years' status quo in East Asia.  The United States
    should also realize that its refusal to recognize
    Taiwan as a sovereign state for 26 years has only
    fostered China's ambition to ruin the status quo and to
    annex Taiwan.  The United States does not want to see
    Taiwan adopt drastic countermeasures, but and the most
    appropriate, most efficient and most timely fashioned
    way is to coordinate other democracies to establish
    normal diplomatic relations with Taiwan and to
    officially recognize Taiwan's current status as a
    sovereign state in the name of `Republic of China.'"

    C) "Use Democracy to Counter PRC `Law'"

    The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News"
    [circulation: 20,000] editorialized (3/14):

    ".  We strongly encourage the Chen administration to
    accurately weigh international reactions and concerns
    and ensure that any response or countermeasures to the
    PRC law are adopted and designed to protect our
    democracy and are not being made merely for the sake of
    domestic consumption.

    "By adhering to the principles of democracy and peace,
    Taiwan can contrast its principled response with
    Beijing's unilateral and callous and anti-democratic
    maneuver.  Besides correcting our long-distorted image
    as a `trouble maker' in cross-strait relations, a
    pragmatic response will show the world that it is
    Beijing that is actually rocking the boat or `pushing
    the envelope' in the Taiwan Strait. .

    "Since the `anti-secession law' poses a `clear and
    present' danger and threat not only to the people of
    Taiwan but also to regional peace and stability, the
    DPP government should also ask for more explicit
    support from the international community, especially
    the U.S. and Japan, to protect our hard-won democracy
    in the face of Beijing's militarism and unilateralism.

    "Incorporation of Taiwan into the U.S.-Japan security
    dialogue and the passage of proactive legislation to
    safeguard Taiwan's security in the face of this
    qualitatively new threat are steps that should be
    fostered. ..."

    D) "To Love the Republic of China is Practically the
    Only Way to Love Taiwan"

    The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times"
    [circulation: 600,000] editorialized (3/12):

    ". [W]hen it comes to [the issue that] the Republic of
    China (ROC) is not tantamount to Taiwan independence,
    it is in fact a position that we have advocated for
    many years.  As for anti-separation, needless [for
    Beijing] to day, we have always been opposed to the
    splittism movements pushing for Taiwan independence.
    For the part of the ROC, the idea to establish another
    independent country [other than the ROC] is more than a
    betrayal for the ROC; moreover, it has never become a
    mainstream public view in Taiwan's politically diverse
    society.  Besides, in terms of political reality, the
    pursuit of Taiwan independence and building a new
    country will only evoke irrational use of force from
    Beijing and lead Taiwan to an immediate disaster.  This
    is certainly not an action that a responsible
    government should do.  .

    "[When we examine] the current political reality, the
    ROC in Taiwan and the PRC on the mainland, despite the
    fact that they are not equal with regard to territory,
    population, or national strength, are separate
    political entities whose powers of governing do not
    cover each other. .  Thus, as long as Taiwan
    acknowledges the ROC and treats it as the greatest
    common denominator for both the ruling and opposition
    parties, Beijing's insistence on enacting the anti-
    secession law would only highlight its major flaws of
    legitimacy and necessity [to do so].  To protect and
    safeguard Taiwan, [we must] protect and safeguard the
    ROC.  [We need to] get rid of the impractical and
    dangerous illusion of seeking Taiwan independence
    because to love the ROC is exactly the only way to love
    Taiwan."

    E) "[Taiwan] Government Upgrading Reaction; Is It a
    Move toward Confrontation or Reconciliation?"

    Journalist Sean Liu observed in the conservative, pro-
    unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 600,000]
    (3/13):

    ". Over the past few years, the Taiwan government, in
    consideration of its domestic political situation and
    elections, insisted on promoting issues such as the
    `one country on each side of the Taiwan Strait'
    doctrine, referendum, writing of a new constitution and
    rectification of Taiwan's name - all of which have
    resulted in a severe damage to the mutual trust
    foundation between Taiwan and the United States.
    Recently, because of President Chen's adjustments in
    his behaviors, no evident conflict has occurred between
    the two.  But still, the U.S. government has doubts
    about the possible direction the Chen Shui-bian
    administration might take with regard to cross-Strait
    issues, and it continued to `listen to [Chen's] words
    and watch his behaviors. .'

    "China's promotion of the `non-peaceful' anti-secession
    law has offered Taiwan, originally badly defeated in
    the triangular relationship between Washington, Beijing
    and Taipei, an opportunity to catch up.  But the
    question of whether President Chen will be able to
    resist temptations of domestic political gains and
    prevent himself from falling into the same trap will
    determine whether Taiwan will be able to secure a
    victory in this round of game and keep its results from
    the battlefield. ."

    F) "On Collision Course"

    The conservative, pro-unification, English-language
    "China Post" [circulation: 30,000] noted in an
    editorial (3/12):

    ". In the aftermath of the [anti-secession] law's
    passage, one can foresee strained relations across the
    Taiwan Strait as well as some uncertainly in Sino-U.S.
    ties.  President Bush and his hawkish secretary of
    state Condoleezza Rice many not remain silent if they
    see the law as a unilateral decision to change the
    status quo.  Rice will visit Beijing later this month
    to express U.S. concerns about the law.

    "Taiwan's reaction is more measured, a far cry from the
    usually angry outbursts during the past.  President
    Chen Shui-bian said on Thursday that he was grateful
    for the deep concerns expressed by the United States
    about Beijing's anti-secession law.  The president also
    correctly pointed out that the biggest obstacle lying
    across the Taiwan Strait is not political division, but
    the gap of political systems.  Only when this gap
    narrows down, he said, can the two sides come closer.

    "Is there a silver lining to the dark cloud?  Not in
    the foreseeable future.  Hu Jintao's olive branch
    extended to Chen Shui-bian last week call for the
    recognition of the `1992 consensus' on one China.
    That's the pre-condition for a cross-strait dialogue
    and rapprochement.  Chen can't afford to yield on that
    point, which is seen as a `betrayal of Taiwan' by his
    comrades.  Beijing, on the other hand, is equally
    inflexible on the consensus reached 13 years ago in
    Hong Kong regarding the definition of one China.
    Without a breakthrough on that stalemate, there's no
    prospect for a thaw in relations, at least during
    Chen's presidency."

    PAAL

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