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### Viewing cable 06AITTAIPEI3614, MEDIA REACTION: DPRK NUCLEAR TEST, TAIWAN'S "SECOND

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06AITTAIPEI3614 | 2006-10-23 10:03 | 2011-08-23 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | American Institute Taiwan, Taipei

`

    VZCZCXYZ0004
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHIN #3614/01 2961003
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 231003Z OCT 06
    FM AIT TAIPEI
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2715
    INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5814
    RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 7029

` `

    UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 003614

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - DAVID FIRESTEIN
    DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
    SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: DPRK NUCLEAR TEST, TAIWAN'S "SECOND
    REPUBLIC CONSTITUTION"

    ¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their
    coverage October 21-23 on the year-end Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral
    races; on the split between the KMT and the People First Party (PFP)
    leadership over December's Taipei mayoral election; on the follow-on
    movements of the "Oust Bian" campaign; and on the difficulties that
    lie ahead for Taiwan following the suspension of the WTO's Doha
    round of trade negotiations.

    With regard to the U.S. arms procurements bill, the pro-independence
    "Liberty Times," Taiwan's largest-circulation daily, ran a banner
    headline on page two October 21 that read "Orange [i.e. PFP] Refuses
    to Sign on Negotiation [Results]; Trouble Arises for [U.S.] Arms
    Procurement Bill to Be Reviewed by Procedural Committee."  In
    addition, several papers reported October 22 on a letter by former
    U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage to the Taiwan
    authorities recently, asking Taiwan to open the bidding for the P-3C
    antisubmarine aircraft procurement to other U.S. suppliers, rather
    than designating Lockheed as the only source.  The pro-status quo
    "China Times" also ran a banner headline on page five on October 23
    that read "Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Lobbying for Arms
    Dealer; Armitage Exposes Inside Stories of State Department; Bian
    Finds [the Information] Very Useful."

    ¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a "China Times"
    editorial said that, given China's  mediation, which has
    successfully resolved the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula,
    the world has again witnessed how Washington and Beijing have worked
    together in maintaining the status quo in East Asia.  An editorial
    in the limited-circulation, conservative, pro-unification,
    English-language "China Post" also commented on North Korea's recent
    nuclear test, saying "the danger of a potential regional nuclear
    race cannot be ruled out."  In addition, Koo Kuan-min, former senior
    advisor to President Chen, discussed the idea of a "Second Republic
    constitution" in a weekly column in the "Liberty Times."  Koo called
    on the Taiwan people to demonstrate a strong collective will to pass
    a popular vote on Taiwan's new constitution, in an attempt to make
    the United States understand and accept this new reality in Taiwan's
    democracy.  End summary.

    ¶3. DPRK Nuclear Test

    A) "North Korea's Nuclear Crisis Is Resolved, But Disputes Still
    Remain"

    The pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000]
    editorialized (10/23):

    "Given the mediation of Chinese special envoys, Pyongyang finally
    promised that it would not perform a second nuclear test.  This
    development is akin to having removed a major part of the fuse of
    the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula.  Judging from the
    atmosphere of the press conference jointly hosted by U.S. Secretary
    of State Condoleezza Rice and Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing,
    it seemed that the United States and China have again worked
    together and concluded a 'crisis management' over North Korea's
    nuclear crisis, except that none of the core disputes has been
    resolved, and their best achievement was merely to stop the
    situation from further deteriorating.  This kind of deadlock will
    persist for a certain period of time.  Even though Taiwan may be a
    mere observer in this crisis, it has nonetheless again witnessed how
    Washington and Beijing have worked together to manage all the
    disputes in the region.

    "Without a doubt, North Korea is a genuine 'troublemaker' in East
    Asia.  It has no intention of integrating itself into the
    international community, nor has it shown any interest in
    participating in any dialogue in the region.  Neither does it want
    to be restricted by any rules of the game. ...  Pyongyang has
    several strategies, and none of its neighboring countries can find a
    way to deal with them:  The first strategy is that Pyongyang always
    picks and toys with the biggest and most sensitive bargaining chip
    it has.  Nuclear tests and ballistic missiles tests are both
    explosive means, and every time Pyongyang plays with these means, it
    is sure to make the headlines of global media. ...  The second
    strategy is Pyongyang's 'unpredictability'; to put it in plain
    language, it means one will never guess what it plans to do next.
    Pyongyang may promise that it will no longer perform any nuclear
    tests one day, and perhaps after a few days, it will [express]
    regret and get ready for talks.  It will appear to be willing to
    talk this moment, and the next moment it might refuse to go to the
    negotiation table. You'll never guess what surprising move it will
    take the next moment.  Pyongyang's third strategy is that
    intimidation on North Korea will never work.  To put it in plain
    language, it means 'You wouldn't dare hit me.'  The United States
    attacked Iraq once it said it intended to, but it never dares to
    behave the same way toward North Korea. ...

    "Many international observers agree that Beijing is the biggest
    REPUBLIC CONSTITUTION"

    loser in the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula this time,
    because the international community expects China to wield its
    influence to force Pyongyang to return to the negotiation table.
    But the games Pyongyang was playing got bigger and bigger,
    indicating that Beijing's influence over Pyongyang has greatly
    declined. ...   Such a judgment may seem accurate, but it is useless
    as a conclusion, because it was after all Tang Jiaxuan's visit to
    and negotiation with Pyongyang personally that has resulted in Kim
    Jong-Il's promise that there would not be a second nuclear test.  In
    other words, in the end, the window that can force Pyongyang to
    submit has to be opened from Beijing's side.

    "For Taiwan, the conclusion of the nuclear crisis on the Korean
    Peninsula has made it witness again how Washington and Beijing have
    worked together in maintaining the status quo in East Asia.  Even
    though the United States and China have differences with regard to
    their separate positions in resolving disputes in the region, their
    positions regarding 'maintaining the status quo' have come closer.
    Pyongyang attempted to alter the status quo, but the move has
    consequently drawn Beijing and Washington closer to each other, and
    the rein that has been put on Pyongyang's neck has been gathered up
    more tightly.  It follows that Taiwan will likely achieve nothing
    should it attempt to change the 'status quo' jointly maintained by
    the United States and China."

    B) "Beijing's North Korean Dilemma"

    The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post"
    [circulation: 30,000] editorialized (10/21):

    "Beijing has been in an unenviable situation since Pyongyang's
    nuclear test on Oct. 9.  Mainland China, which is North Korea's only
    ally as well as its major provider of economic aid, was given only a
    20 minute advance warning prior to the underground test.  It's an
    embarrassment, if not humiliation, for Chinese president Hu Jintao
    who is clearly at a loss about how to deal with this 'ally' for whom
    hundreds of thousands of Chinese troops had died in the 1950-53
    Korea War.  To punish or not to punish the Hermit Kingdom and its
    Dear Leader Kim Jong-Il is a dilemma for Beijing.  All the major
    powers, especially the United States, are waiting to see what kind
    of action Beijing will take to resolve the North Korean nuclear
    crisis, as Beijing is the only country which wields influence over
    Pyongyang. ...

    "Now it's water under the bridge. Willy-nilly, the world will live
    with the unpleasant fact that Pyongyang is the ninth member of the
    nuclear club.  It is interesting to watch who will follow suit, now
    that the door has been blasted open by Pyongyang.  It is evident
    that Iran, another member of the axis of evil, is on the threshold
    despite threats from Washington.  A nuclear Korean peninsula is
    ominous because South Korea and Japan are under the direct threat of
    Pyongyang's weapons of mass destruction.  Mainland China will be
    particularly uneasy with the bomb in its backyard.  Who believes
    that Kim's bomb is aimed only at the United States?  The danger of a
    potential regional nuclear race cannot be ruled out."

    ¶4. Taiwan's "Second Republic Constitution"

    "The Conception and Implementation of a 'Second Republic
    Constitution'"

    Koo Kuan-min, former Senior Adviser to the President, noted in the
    "Weekly Comment" in the pro-independence "Liberty Times"
    [circulation: 600,000] (10/22):

    "... We all know that the two most important objectives for Taiwan
    to become a normal country are the rectification of its name and the
    writing a new constitution.  However, there are two major obstacles
    that are hindering Taiwan from becoming a normal country, namely,
    the United States and China.  As we are pushing the democratic
    engineering of a new constitution right now, we have clearly felt
    the pressure from the United States. ...

    "Only by obtaining a clear understanding of U.S. policy principles
    can we pursue our national interests pragmatically.  Three months
    ago, I raised the idea of 'freezing the Republic of China
    Constitution and instituting a second constitution' to the U.S. side
    for the first time.  This idea mainly stemmed from the 'freezing' of
    the National Unification Council. ...  But the United States still
    has strong doubts about Taiwan's plan to write a new constitution,
    primarily because it would be akin to substantive 'Taiwan
    independence' should the declaration of 'sovereignty' be written
    into the new constitution.  Such a move will contradict the three
    major principles of the U.S. cross-Strait policy. ...

    "In addition to elaborating on the idea of 'freezing [the ROC
    Constitution],' I also told the United States that if they continue
    to pressure Taiwan not to push certain pragmatic plans to turn
    REPUBLIC CONSTITUTION"

    Taiwan into a normal country, and if they cannot give the Taiwan
    people hopes and dreams for the future, the Taiwan people will
    really give up hope someday and turn their support to Ma Ying-jeou
    and the KMT who advocate 'ultimate unification' [with China].  [I
    asked them] if this is what they are happy to see, Taiwan annexed by
    China and becoming part of China?  Will this meet the United States'
    national interests in the Western Pacific?  The United States was
    able to understand my elaboration and even asked me 'Have people in
    your country discussed your idea of a second constitution?'

    "The United States is a democratic country, and Americans are
    clearly aware of the importance of public opinion; they are gravely
    concerned about the process of pushing for a new constitution.  The
    Taiwan people, therefore, must demonstrate a strong collective will
    and pass the 'new constitution' via a popular vote.  I believe that
    the United States will consequently accept this new reality about
    Taiwan's democracy, because this is the true meaning of democracy -
    namely, democratic rights for the people. ..."

    YOUNG

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