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### Viewing cable 05TAIPEI3132, MEDIA REACTION: RENMINBI REVALUATION, CROSS-

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05TAIPEI3132 | 2005-07-25 08:39 | 2011-08-23 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | American Institute Taiwan, Taipei

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 003132

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD -
    ROBERT PALLADINO
    DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
    SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: RENMINBI REVALUATION, CROSS-
    STRAIT RELATIONS, PENTAGON'S REPORT ON CHINA MILITARY
    POWER

    ¶1. Summary: Amid the extensive coverage of local
    politics and the return of an injured Taiwan super-
    model from China to Taiwan, the major Chinese language
    Taipei dailies also spent pages July 23-25 reporting on
    the impact of the revalued Renminbi on Taiwan,
    President Chen's offer to attend this year's APEC
    Leaders' Summit in South Korea and meet with Chinese
    President Hu Jintao, the cross-Strait talks scheduled
    for July 27 on selling Taiwan fruit to China, and the
    car bombs in Egypt.  The centrist "China Times,"
    interestingly, spent almost the whole of its second
    page July 25 discussing the Donald Keyser case and the
    interaction between Taiwan's and Washington's
    intelligence agencies over the past year.  The
    newspaper also carried a news story on the same page
    introducing U.S. Army Colonel Albert Willner, who will
    come to Taiwan in August to take on the job as head of
    AIT's Liaison Affairs Section.

    ¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, several
    newspapers continued to editorialize on Beijing's move
    to revalue the Renminbi.  An editorial in the pro-
    unification "United Daily News" said Beijing's move has
    unveiled new changes to the world economy, while an
    editorial in the centrist "China Times" called the move
    similar to Taiwan's own experiences.  An editorial in
    the limited-circulation, pro-independence, English-
    language "Taipei Times," however, expressed concern
    about the possible speed of capital outflow from Taiwan
    to China created by the Renminbi revaluation.  With
    regard to President Chen's proposal to attend the APEC
    summit and meet with Chinese President Hu Jintao, a
    commentary in the "United Daily News" called it a chess
    move that is meant as a show for viewers inside and
    outside Taiwan rather than a part of a real chess game
    with Beijing.  Two editorials and one commentary
    continued the discussion of the Pentagon's annual
    report on China's military power that was released last
    week.  A commentary in the limited-circulation, pro-
    independence, English-language "Taipei Times" and an
    editorial in the limited-circulation, pro-independence,
    English-language "Taiwan News" both called the
    Pentagon's report a wake-up call to the international
    community that Taiwan is not the only potential victim
    of Beijing's missile development and military threats.
    An editorial in the limited-circulation, conservative,
    pro-unification, English-language "China Post," on the
    other hand, said Washington now views Beijing as a
    competitor and a potential enemy.  End summary.

    ¶1. Renminbi Revaluation

    A) "One Pebble Splashes High Waves: Renminbi's
    Appreciation Has Unveiled New Changes to the World
    Economy"

    The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation:
    600,000] editorialized (7/23):

    ". The significance of [last week's] Renminbi
    revaluation is manifested in two aspects, and the first
    is in the political aspect.  No matter whether the
    Beijing authorities admit it or not, mainland China's
    announcement to appreciate the Renminbi prior to
    Chinese President Hu Jintao's planned visit to the
    United States has provided essential bargaining chips
    to the Bush administration and has removed pressure
    from the protectionists inside the United States.  Such
    a move was also made in an attempt [for Beijing] to
    further strengthen its political ties with the United
    States.  In addition, Beijing intended to use this move
    to send a clear message to the international community,
    expressing its willingness in shouldering certain
    responsibility for the imbalanced global economy and
    its interest in sharing the obligations of a major
    member in the global economic system.  In the meantime,
    Beijing also wanted to remove any barriers that might
    block its plan to deepen its relationships with major
    international economic organizations.

    "The other aspect is the reform of [Beijing's] exchange
    rate system.  When compared to the fact that it is
    generally acknowledged by the international society
    that the Renminbi was undervalued by more than ten
    percent, the appreciation of only two percent was
    really nothing.  But the critical point lies in the
    change of the Renminbi exchange system, which has
    scrapped the peg to the dollar in favor of a basket of
    currencies of those major trading partners of mainland
    China.  The move has created immense possibilities for
    the future direction of the Renminbi. . Mainland
    China's money exchange policy will enjoy greater
    flexibility in the future, so will the fluctuation of
    the Renminbi.  Such a development will bring about
    various possible impacts for mainland China's economy
    and for the regional or even the global economies. ."

    B) "Reform of the Renminbi Exchange System Is Actually
    a Replica of Taiwan's Experience"

    The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times"
    [circulation: 600,000] observed in an editorial (7/23):

    ". Beijing's timing to appreciate the Renminbi was
    perfect and the world's responses to the move were all
    positive.  The current small-scale appreciation of the
    Renminbi will be conducive to readjusting the
    imbalanced economy of mainland China as well as that of
    the other countries in the world.  Several stocks that
    focus on China's market of domestic demand and whose
    profits are valued in the Renminbi are those that are
    mostly benefited by the Renminbi revaluation.  But it
    was bad news for the Taiwan firms that are based in
    Taiwan and have their products manufactured on the
    mainland and exported to the United States.  In the
    short term, the New Taiwan dollar and other Asian
    currencies will be lifted by the Yuan's revaluation,
    but their appreciation range will be much lower than
    that of the Renminbi, so Taiwan people need not panic
    about it."

    C) "Yuan Changes Could Speed Outflows"

    The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times"
    [circulation: 30,000] commented in an editorial (7/25):

    "The timing of China's decision last week to revalue
    its currency and allow it to fluctuate against a basket
    of currencies came as a surprise, despite widespread
    expectations that it would eventually happy.  The move
    does not, however, mark a complete end to China's
    decade-long peg to the US dollar, but rather the start
    of a new currency regime. .

    "While the impact of the yuan's 2 percent revaluation
    will take time to assess, the issue of potential
    capital outflows to China from Taiwan has also caught
    the attention of the Mainland Affairs Council.  Last
    week the Cabinet said it would monitor the potential
    impact on the export sector and help small and medium-
    sized enterprises hedge against the risk of currency
    fluctuations.

    "As China is run by an opaque regime, its next move
    regarding the yuan cannot be predicted.  For democratic
    economies such as Taiwan, the change in the yuan's
    value has become a regional and global issue we have to
    face."

    ¶2. Cross-Strait Relations

    "The Chess Move of Bian-Hu Meeting Was Simply a Gesture
    Made for the Eyes of the [Local and International]
    Spectators"

    Journalist Huang Ya-shih noted in the "United Notes"
    column of the pro-unification "United Daily News"
    [circulation: 600,000] (7/24):

    ". The move [by President Chen Shui-bian] to fly a
    [test] balloon of a `meeting between Chen and Chinese
    President Hu Jintao' can show the international
    community and the Taiwan businessmen that favor the
    three links across the Taiwan Strait Chen's efforts in
    resuming the cross-Strait dialogue.  Also, the harm
    that such a proposal would do to the feelings of
    [Chen's] pro-independence supporters will be minimum
    because China has already turned down the conditions
    set by Chen for his meeting with Hu.  Every time when
    Beijing relentlessly turned down Taipei's offer, it
    would mean an opportunity for the Bian administration
    to accumulate its advantages that can be used to
    harshly criticize China's `haughtiness' [toward
    Taiwan].

    "Over the past few months, Chen has kept on talking
    about the `Bian-Hu meeting.'  He first threw out
    remarks like `hoping to invite Hu to visit Taiwan,'
    then said that he was willing to meet [with Hu] in a
    `third country.'  The statement was later followed by
    Chen's articulation that he hoped they could `meet in
    the United States' in August or September.  The latest
    version was that [Chen hoped he and Hu could] meet at
    the APEC summit.  The topic regarding the Bian-Hu
    meeting that has been repeatedly thrown out [over the
    past few months] has managed to keep the heat of cross-
    Strait issue, but in reality, the progress on this
    issue is zero and remains to be static.

    "As a result, when people view Chen's chess move of the
    `Bian-Hu meeting,' they would prefer to calling it a
    move played to be shown to the viewers inside and
    outside Taiwan rather than a [real] chess game with
    Beijing."
    ¶3. Pentagon's Report on China Military Power

    A) "Beijing's Expanding Military a Global Issue"

    Liu Kuan-teh, a Taipei-based political commentator,
    wrote in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei
    Times" [circulation: 30,000] (7/25):

    ". The Pentagon report is a wake-up call to the
    international community that Taiwan is not the only
    potential victim of Beijing's missile development and
    military aggrandizement.  China's emerging military
    threat has extended beyond the Asia-Pacific region to
    Russia, Central and Southern Asia, and Australia.

    "Even though the Chinese authorities have introduced
    the concept of `peaceful rise,' a new term to describe
    China's emergence, the notion of the `China threat' is
    by no means limited to the Taiwan Strait.

    "In pursuing engagement with China, the international
    community, including the US, must state clearly that
    safeguarding a strong and democratic Taiwan is in the
    interest of US efforts to create peace and prosperity
    in the Asia-Pacific region.  Only by offering Taiwan
    support for continued democratic consolidation and
    defense can the impact of the `China threat' be jointly
    managed."

    B) "Heed Wake-up Call on PRC Military"

    The pro-independence, English-language  "Taiwan News"
    [circulation: 20,000] noted in an editorial (7/25):

    ". The [Pentagon's] report shows that Taiwan is not the
    only potential victim of Beijing's missile development
    and military threats, but that China's expansive
    military capability is stretching beyond Asia-Pacific
    region to reach into Russia, Central and Southern Asia,
    and even Australia.

    "Despite the attempt by Beijing authorities to ease
    global concerns over its rising military threat under
    the guise of its `peaceful rise' slogan, China's
    military expansion has clearly become a serious
    provocation and a threat to the peace and security of
    the entire world as well as to the Taiwan Strait.

    "A collective effort must be made by the international
    community to both incorporate China into the
    international framework and deter Beijing's military
    saber-rattling against a democratic and free Taiwan.

    "The people of Taiwan must do their part by putting
    pressure on the pan-blue legislative majority to face
    up to the reality of this threat and cease their
    spiteful boycott of plans to purchase necessary
    advanced defensive weapons procurements."

    C) "Beijing's Rapid Rise Worries Washington"

    The conservative, pro-unification, English-language
    "China Post" [circulation: 30,000] commented in an
    editorial (7/23):

    ". The message from the [Pentagon's] report is loud and
    clear: China is a threat, regional if not global.
    Washington now views Beijing as a competitor, not a
    partner.  Beijing is in fact seen as a potential enemy,
    next only to the rogue states like Iran, Iraq and North
    Korea. .

    "It is evident that Beijing is now in Washington's
    cross hairs.  It would be better for Beijing to stay
    off the U.S. gun sights by assuming a low profile and
    refrain from making inflammatory rhetoric.  Beijing
    should know that the United States, the sole superpower
    in the world, needs an enemy, real or imaginary, to
    fill the spot vacated by the former Soviet Union.
    Beijing should never dream of being a U.S. partner
    because it is a communist country and a dictatorship
    whose rise poses a threat to U.S. hegemony."

    PAAL

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