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### Viewing cable 06AITTAIPEI579, MEDIA REACTION: WASHINGTON-BEIJING-TAIPEI RELATIONS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06AITTAIPEI579 | 2006-02-26 22:55 | 2011-08-23 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | American Institute Taiwan, Taipei

`

    VZCZCXYZ0014
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHIN #0579/01 0572255
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 262255Z FEB 06
    FM AIT TAIPEI
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8683
    INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 4720
    RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 5913

` `

    UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000579

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC
    BARBORIAK
    DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
    SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: WASHINGTON-BEIJING-TAIPEI RELATIONS

    ¶1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies
    continued to focus their coverage February 24 on the
    aftermath of President Chen Shui-bian's announced proposal
    to abolish the National Unification Council (NUC) and
    National Unification Guidelines (NUG); a BBC interview with
    KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou in London; and the February 28
    Incident of 1947.  The pro-independence "Liberty Times,"
    Taiwan's biggest daily, ran a banner headline on its page
    two that quoted Chen as saying that he "Will Abolish the NUC
    and NUG Even [at the Risk of] Being Scolded by [U.S.
    President George W.] Bush." The pro-status quo "China
    Times," on the other hand, ran a banner headline on its
    front page that read: "Bian Will Have a Remedy for [His
    Planned Move to] Abolish the NUC and NUG; [He Will] Scrap
    the `Last No' But Keep the `Four No's.'"  The newspaper also
    carried an exclusive news story on its front page with the
    headline: "United States: Does Taiwan Still Need Our
    Protection?"  The pro-unification "United Daily News" topped
    its front-page news story on the topic with the headline:
    "To Release the Pressure on [Chen's Plan] to Abolish the NUC
    and NUG, [Mainland Affairs Council Chairman] Joseph Wu
    Passes a Message [via a Third Person to Beijing]: [Taiwan]
    Will Not Cross the Red Line."

    ¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a "China Times"
    editorial urged Taipei to be mentally prepared because
    Washington is sure to "teach Taiwan a lesson" for Chen's
    plan to abolish the NUC and NUG.  The article said "Chen may
    likely win himself the throne of the new godfather of Taiwan
    independence, and he may resolve his leadership crisis
    inside the DPP in the end.  But Taiwan, other than
    accomplishing Chen's personal political benefits, will have
    to pay an extraordinarily high price, and this price is sure
    to be paid by all the Taiwan people."  Yu Pen-li, assistant
    professor at Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of
    American Studies, cautioned Taiwan in the mass-circulation
    "Apple Daily" that Washington and Beijing may decide to sign
    a fourth communiqu during the meeting between U.S.
    President George W. Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao in
    April.  An editorial in the limited-circulated, pro-
    independence, English-language "Taiwan News," on the other
    hand, defended Chen by saying that the plan to abolish the
    NUC and NUG is a move to uphold Taiwan's current status.
    End summary.

    A) "How Is Washington Going to Teach Taiwan a Lesson?  --
    The Probability That Taiwan Cannot Avoid Accepting"

    The pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000]
    editorialized (2/24):

    "Judging from President Chen's personal remarks to U.S.
    House Representative Rob Simmons the other day, the policy
    to abolish the NUC and NUG seem to be decided already.  Now
    the question that remains is the `timing' [of the
    government's] formal announcement of the decision. . In
    other words, as of now, the question regarding whether
    [Chen] will abolish the NUC and NUG is already [one that
    should be in] the past tense.  The question that should be
    asked now instead is what `consequences' Taiwan will have to
    bear for the abolition of the NUC and NUG. .

    "This kind of waiting and speculation is really very
    uncomfortable [for the Taiwan people]!  [We] all know that
    there will be harm [done to Taiwan], but we have no idea
    what kind of harm it will be.  After all, Washington has
    made it very clear to Taiwan that it does not wish to see
    the latter go along with its plan [to abolish the NUC and
    NUG].  It can be said that Washington has `said everything
    it could' [to Taiwan] by sending a secret envoy to
    personally persuade [Chen] and by repeated publicly calling
    on [Taiwan to refrain from carrying out the plan].  But Chen
    remains unmoved.  Now the ball is in Washington's court.  No
    one knows what Washington's next response will be.  Will it
    humiliate Taiwan again during the meeting between U.S.
    President George W. Bush and Chinese President Hu Jintao in
    April, or postpone the talks and signing of the U.S.-Taiwan
    Free Trade Agreement?  Will it postpone the appointment of
    [the new] AIT director, or there will be other [penalties]?
    Perhaps it will turn out to be just a light penalty in the
    end, or it may be a severe one.  But no matter what, at
    least we can be sure that the United States will surely
    respond.  Taiwan had better be mentally prepared that things
    will not be over so easily. .

    "The point with regard to the abolition of the NUC and NUG
    is that it does not matter whether the NUC or NUG are `an
    absurd product made during an absurd era' or that whether
    the KMT has already `included Taiwan independence as a
    possible option' [for Taiwan people to decide on their
    future].  What really matters is whether Taiwan has violated
    its own pledge and whether it is exploring the possibility
    of crossing the red line of the policy.  It is unlikely that
    the United States is not aware that the NUC is a body that
    `exists in name only,' and the move to abolish the NUC and
    NUG will not create clear and imminent change to the
    substance of the status quo across the Taiwan Strait.  But
    for the United States, Chen's move to `pick up a piece of
    trash that is already in the trash can and toss it [back in]
    again' (to quote [former DPP Chairman] Shih Ming-teh's
    phrase) is by no means aimed at the NUC and NUG themselves.
    Instead, [what Chen cares about is] the symbolic
    significance of such a move; namely, it is an indication of
    a string of changes that are about to follow. .  If
    Washington takes no action at all [towards Taiwan], it will
    mean that the Five No's overall falling part will just be a
    matter of time.  Should that happen, Beijing's will
    definitely enhance its power of backlashes, and both sides
    of the Taiwan Strait will again fall into a new wave of
    `uncertainty.'  Will the United States be happy to see such
    a development?  If Taiwan is the one that creates the change
    in the status quo, especially Washington has failed to stop
    Taiwan after President George W. Bush has personally sent an
    envoy to persuade Taiwan not to do it, how can the United
    States not get angry and take this opportunity to `teach
    Taiwan a lesson'!

    "No matter what the United States chooses to do in the end,
    it is expected that it will do damage to Taiwan's right and
    interests.  Anyone with an international sense is clearly
    aware of this result, but Chen's recent actions seemed to
    show that he did not care at all, and the DPP also seems
    very confident and fearless about what it is doing.  Yes,
    Chen may likely win himself the throne of the new godfather
    of Taiwan independence, and he may likely resolve his
    leadership crisis inside the DPP in the end.  But Taiwan,
    other than accomplishing Chen's personal political benefits,
    will have to pay an extraordinarily high price, and this
    price is sure to be paid jointly by all Taiwan people."

    B) "[Taiwan] Must Watch out for the [Sino-U.S.] Fourth
    Communiqu After It Abolishes the NUC and NUG"

    Yu Pen-li, assistant professor at Tamkang University's
    Graduate Institute of American Studies, commented in the
    mass-circulation "Apple Daily" [circulation: 500,000]
    (2/24):

    ". The failure of [U.S. National Security Council Senior
    Acting Director for Asian Affairs] Dennis Wilder's assigned
    trip to communicate with Taiwan will not be the end but the
    beginning of the controversy about [President Chen's]
    proposal to abolish the NUC and NUG.  It is imaginable that
    the relevant U.S. government agencies in Washington will
    upgrade its level in handling the cross-Strait issues. .
    The biggest nightmare for the United States is having
    tensions rise across the Taiwan Strait because both sides
    misread the situation, and as a result, the cross-Strait
    situation gets out of control, forcing Washington to advance
    [the time to sit down] with Beijing and have a showdown over
    the Taiwan issue in an attempt to prevent being dragged into
    war.

    "In order to avoid the risks of being dragged into war and
    to reduce tensions [across the Taiwan Strait], Washington
    will only strengthen communication with Beijing rather than
    resisting it.  Beijing will also increase its pressure on
    Washington and not just bluff.  As maintaining peace and
    stability in the Taiwan Strait closely concerns Washington's
    and Beijing's interests, Washington's joining hands with
    Beijing to restrain Taipei will then be the greatest test
    for the Taiwan government and its people.

    ". Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to the United States
    in April is thus of essential importance.  Will Washington
    and Beijing, out of their joint needs to restrain the Taiwan
    authorities' marginal policy, sign a fourth communiqu to
    put into words their opposition to Taiwan independence?  .
    This is something that Taiwan should pay more attention to.
    ."

    C) "Abolishing NUG Upholds Taiwan's Current Status"

    The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News"
    [circulation: 20,000] said in an editorial (2/24):

    "We urge all political actors, Taiwan citizens and foreign
    observers to grasp the key point that the proposal by
    President Chen Shui-bian to formally abolish the long-
    dormant NUC and its NUG is a move that will preserve
    Taiwan's current status, not `unilaterally alter' the status
    quo in the Taiwan Strait. .  We believe that President Chen
    can make this issue clearer by reaffirming that all options
    for the future are open based on the reality that Taiwan is
    now an independent and self-governing democratic state and
    that any changes in Taiwan's current status need to be
    ratified by national referendum of our citizens, as already
    stipulated in our Constitution.

    "With a neutral government policy and a process of
    Constitutional reform that requires three-fourths
    Legislative approval and ratification by half of the
    eligible voters in a national referendum, everyone can feel
    assured that any changes in Taiwan's status will require an
    overwhelming consensus and will no longer be vulnerable to
    unilateral or caviler dictation by any political party or
    individual.  Eliminating the NUC and NUG will bolster our
    current status, not change it."

    KEEGAN

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