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### Viewing cable 05TAIPEI4779, Economic Briefing for November 2005

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05TAIPEI4779 | 2005-12-02 08:27 | 2011-08-23 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | American Institute Taiwan, Taipei

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 004779

    SIPDIS

    STATE PLEASE PASS AIT/W AND USTR

    STATE FOR EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/EP

    USTR FOR WINTER AND WINELAND

    USDOC FOR 4420/USFCS/OCEA/EAP/LDROKER
    USDOC FOR 3132/USFCS/OIO/EAP/ADAVENPORT
    TREASURY FOR OASIA/LMOGHTADER
    TREASURY PLEASE PASS TO OCC/AMCMAHON
    TREASURY ALSO PASS TO FEDERAL RESERVE/BOARD OF
    GOVERNORS, AND SAN FRANCISCO FRB/TERESA CURRAN

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EINV EFIN ECON PINR TW IPR ESTH
    SUBJECT:  Economic Briefing for November 2005

    REF: (A) Taipei 4764; (B) Taipei 3572

    ¶1.  This cable summarizes selected economic events in Taiwan
    in November 2005:

    --New accounting system for national income statistics

    --Alternate Minimum Tax Bill

    --Foreign investor acquires local bank

    --Compulsory licensing for Tamiflu

    --National Communication Commission

    --Hong Kong-Taipei flights proposed

    --Cross-Strait government co-investment

    --Taiwan TFT-LCD panels

    --Taiwan offshore production dominates IT

    Taiwan adopts UN National Accounts System
    ----------------------------------------

    ¶2.  In November, Taiwan replaced the 1968 version of the
    U.N. System of National Accounts with an accounting system
    based mainly on the 1993 U.N. System of National Accounts
    (93SNA) in its compilation of national income statistics.
    The 93SNA includes in gross domestic product (GDP) four
    categories of expenses excluded from the 68SNA GDP.  These
    four categories are 1) mining exploration expenditure, 2)
    computer software expenses (now treated as capital
    formation), 3) banking services for government and
    households, and 4) depreciation of public infrastructure
    (now classified as final consumption).  Consequently real
    GDP growth in 2004 was changed from 6.06% to 6.07% and the
    2004 per capita GDP increased by 5% from US$13,595 to
    US$14,271.  Based on the 93SNA, the Taiwan government
    estimates the island's economic growth will rise from 3.80%
    in 2005 to 4.08% in 2006.  The 93SNA changes the components
    of 2004 GDP to 72.73% for the service sector (up from 68.79%
    based on the 68SNA), 1.68% for agriculture (down from
    1.74%), and 25.58% for industries (down from 29.54%).

    Taiwan Legislature's First Reading of AMT
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶3.  In late November the Legislative Yuan (LY) finished its
    first reading of the Alternate Minimum Tax Bill.  Under the
    current version of the Bill, individuals with over NT$6
    million (about US$180,000) income will be subject to a 20%
    AMT.  Three years after the new tax law is adopted, the AMT
    will be expanded to include overseas income.  The AMT
    corporate tax rate will be 10-12% on income above NT$8
    million (about US$240,000).  About 15,000 people will be
    required to pay the AMT according to an estimate by the
    Ministry of Finance.  The AMT is expected to cut listed
    companies' profit margins by 3% to 5% and may affect
    semiconductor, TFT, and other high-tech industries exempt
    from most tax, more than other sectors.  A recent Gallup
    poll for CLSA showed broad support for the AMT.

    First Foreign Acquisition of Local Bank
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶4.  On November 28, Nassau Inn Investments Limited acquired
    61% equity in Business Bank of Hualien (BBH) for a cost of
    NT$1,000 million (US$30 million). This will be the first
    foreign acquisition of majority ownership of a local bank
    (most of the funds are reportedly from European and American
    investors).  The acquisition will help Taiwan resolve
    problems at one of the eight banks designated by the
    Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) as targets for the
    (now-defunct) Financial Reconstruction Fund.  In September
    2005, BBH failed to meet FSC requirements with a non-
    performing loan (NPL) ratio of 10% and a capital adequacy
    ratio of 1.4%.  Nassau Inn is expected to improve and sell
    BHH rather to hold and manage it.

    Compulsory Licensing for Tamiflu Production
    -------------------------------------------

    ¶5.  Taiwan's Intellectual Property Office (IPO) issued a
    compulsory license for Tamiflu production to Taiwan's
    Department of Health (DOH) on November 25 (ref A).  The
    authorization will be valid from November 25 to December 31,
    ¶2007.  Tamiflu produced under the compulsory authorization
    will be limited to use when products made by the
    rightsholder Roche are insufficient to meet demand.  DOH is
    required to pay as yet undetermined royalties to Roche.  At
    present, Taiwan intends to buy from Roche only enough
    Tamiflu to stockpile for 10% of the population.

    National Communication Commission (NCC)
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶6.  In late November 2005, the ruling party nominated ten
    NCC commissioner candidates and the opposition parties
    proposed eight. The 18 candidates include National Chengchi
    University (NCU) Mass Media College Dean Wong Shiu-chi
    (nominated by the ruling DPP party), NCU Law Professor Su
    Yung-ching (nominated by the opposition KMT Party), and
    former KMT-owned China Broadcasting Company President Liu
    Chu-yuan (nominated by the opposition PFP Party).  The NCC
    Commissioner Review Committee will select 13 out of the 18
    candidates to constitute the NCC in the next few weeks.

    Flights from Hong Kong to Downtown Taipei Airport Proposed
    --------------------------------------------- -------------

    ¶7.  In mid November, 116 legislators including DPP, KMT and
    PFP members, proposed opening downtown Taipei's Sungshan
    Airport to flights from Hong Kong and Macao.  Far Eastern
    Air Transport and TransAsia Airways both voiced support for
    the proposal.  The Ministry of Transportation and
    Communications has also expressed its support, and the Civil
    Aviation Administration (CAA) is doing a feasibility
    evaluation.  The CAA has indicated that the proposal will
    require approval by the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) and
    national security agencies.  On November 16, legislators
    froze the MAC operating budget for 2006 pending approval of
    Hong Kong and Macao flights at Sungshan Airport among other
    conditions.

    Cross-Strait Flag Carriers Co-invest
    ------------------------------------

    ¶8.  Taiwan's government-controlled China Airlines (CAL)
    announced November 15 plans to acquire a 20-percent
    stake in Hong Kong-based China Aircraft Service Ltd.
    (CAS).  CAS is an aircraft maintenance and cleaning
    service provider with (PRC government-owned) Air China,
    (US) United Airlines and (Hong Kong) Hutchison Whampoa
    Limited as major shareholders.  Air China is the
    largest shareholder with a 53-percent stake.  In
    addition, the Ministry of Economic Affairs approved
    another Mainland investment proposal from CAL and two
    Taiwan shipping companies, Wan Hai Lines and Yangming
    Marine Transport, to purchase a 43 percent stake in the
    PRC government-invested cargo airline, Yangtze River
    Express (ref B).

    Taiwan TFT-LCD Manufacturers Investing in PRC
    ---------------------------------------------

    ¶9.  On November 14, Taiwan's Chunghwa Picture Tubes Ltd.
    announced plans to purchase a 29-36 percent stake of China's
    Xiamen Overseas Chinese Electronics Co., Ltd. (XOCECO).  The
    PRC firm manufactures televisions and monitors, sold
    internationally under the "Prima" brand.  The board of
    Chunghwa Picture Tubes expects to complete the purchase
    within six months.  The sale would make Chunghwa Picture
    Tube China's second largest LCD TV manufacturer.  On
    November 10, Taiwan's Toppoly Optoelectronics Corp. and
    Royal Philips Electronics announced plans to form a new
    company in China.  Toppoly is a subsidiary of Taiwan's
    Compal Electronics Group.  Toppoly already has a TFT-LCD
    display factory in Nanjing.  Taiwan firms currently are not
    permitted under Taiwan law to invest in TFT-LCD panel
    manufacturing facilities in the PRC.  However, there is no
    prohibition against investment in manufacturing TFT-LCD
    modules from imported panels.

    ¶10.  The value of Taiwan-made large-scale TFT-LCD panels
    will increase 31% this year to US$17.6 billion.  Large-scale
    TFT-LCD panel exports will reach 93 million pieces,
    surpassing South Korea's exports of 88 million pieces.  The
    strong demand for LCD TVs, monitors, and laptop PCs, has
    contributed to rapid expansion of Taiwan's TFT-LCD industry.
    Taiwan's seven TFT-LCD producers took 45% of the world
    market in the second quarter this year, and have plans to
    invest an additional NT$120 billion (US$3.58 billion) in
    construction of "7.5G" (the most advanced) plants.  Corning
    Inc. has decided to invest an additional US$450 million to
    expand its glass substrate production facilities in Taiwan.
    Taiwan's TFT-LCD industry has attracted up-stream suppliers
    from Japan and South Korea to invest in Taiwan.

    Taiwan IT Leads the World
    -------------------------

    ¶11.  Taiwan manufacturing firms are dominating world markets
    through production bases in China, particularly for
    information technology (IT) products.  According the
    Marketing Intelligence Center (MIC) of the Institute for
    Information Industry, Taiwan companies dominated the
    following IT product categories (with estimated 2005 global
    market share in parentheses) : motherboard (98.3%), laptop
    PC (82.4%), large scale LCD (46.9%), WLAN cards (89%),
    wireless access point (59%), VoIP IP phones (77%), customer
    premise equipment (75%), and internal VOIP phone routers
    (83%).  The MIC estimates that Taiwan's IT hardware outputs,
    excluding semiconductors, will increase by 15 percent this
    year to US$80 billion and by 9.5 percent in 2006 to US$87.5
    billion.  Laptops, with an output of US$30.2 billion, are
    the most valuable IT products.  A recent survey conducted by
    the Ministry of Economic Affairs showed that 71.7% of export
    orders for Taiwan IT products were manufactured overseas,
    mainly in China.

    PAAL

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