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### Viewing cable 06AITTAIPEI3309, MEDIA REACTION: PRESIDENT CHEN SHUI-BIAN'S CONSTITUTIONAL

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06AITTAIPEI3309 | 2006-09-25 10:22 | 2011-08-23 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | American Institute Taiwan, Taipei

`

    VZCZCXYZ0004
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHIN #3309/01 2681022
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 251022Z SEP 06
    FM AIT TAIPEI
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2301
    INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5698
    RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6913

` `

    UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 003309

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - DAVID FIRESTEIN
    DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A

    TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
    SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: PRESIDENT CHEN SHUI-BIAN'S CONSTITUTIONAL
    REFORM PROPOSAL

    ¶1. Summary:  Taiwan major Chinese-language dailies focused their
    coverage September 23-25 on the ongoing and follow-on movements of
    former DPP Chairman Shih Ming-teh's campaign to oust President Chen
    Shui-bian; on possible solutions to the current political stand-off
    in Taiwan; and on President Chen's proposed constitutional reforms
    that touch on the island's territory.  The pro-independence "Liberty
    Times," Taiwan's largest circulation daily, ran a banner headline on
    page three September 25 that read "Bian Tosses Out Topic; Territory
    to Be Included in DPP's Draft Constitutional Reform Proposal."  The
    pro-status quo "China Times," in the meantime, ran a banner headline
    on page four September 25 that said "Ma to Take Action Today:
    Second [Presidential] Recall Motion Will Be Focus of Negotiations
    between Ruling and Opposition Parties."  The pro-unification "United
    Daily News," on the other hand, front-paged the results of its
    latest poll September 25, showing that only 15 percent of those
    polled said they support the DPP, a 40 percent loss of support over
    the past twelve months.  The same poll also found that the DPP's
    approval rating has dropped 30 percent since it came to power six
    years ago.

    ¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a "Liberty Times"
    analysis urged the ruling DPP government to clarify to the United
    States and Japan the sensitive constitutional reform proposal that
    touches on Taiwan's territory.  A "China Times" analysis judged that
    after having weighed the entire political situation, President Chen
    is moving closer to hasty Taiwan independence, using Taiwan-centered
    awareness as an umbrella to protect himself.  A "United Daily News"
    analysis, on the other hand, called the unification/independence
    card a new trick that Chen has play so many times when he faced
    crises that his skill has attained perfection.  End summary.

    A) "Constitutional Reform on Territory Is Sensitive, Need to Clarify
    with United States and Japan"

    Journalist Luo Tien-pin noted in an analysis in the pro-independence
    "Liberty Times" [circulation: 600,000] (9/25):

    "The fact that President Chen Shui-bian tossed out the
    constitutional reform issue on [Taiwan's] territory yesterday has
    aroused grave concern and will certainly touch the sensitive nerve
    of Washington-Beijing-Taipei relations.  Should the ruling party
    pass the resolution to put forward the constitutional reform
    proposal on territorial changes, the government has to give complete
    details to important allies in the international community, such as
    the United States and Japan, clarifying to them that the move is
    purely in line with [the island's] actual governance status and
    international reality, and it is not meant to change the status quo.
    ...

    "When compared with the move to cease the functions of the National
    Unification Council (NUC) and the application of the National
    Unification Guidelines (NUG), the ruling party regards the move to
    change Taiwan's territory as a very important substance of its
    constitutional reform proposal.  The Chinese side will definitely
    link this move to the cessation of the NUC and the NUG.  In
    addition, Chen has already instructed his administration to assess
    the possibility of pushing Taiwan's bid to join the United Nations
    under the name of Taiwan.  For the Chinese side, the move will only
    confirm its belief that the next step the Bian administration will
    take is to change Taiwan's national flag and title, and eventually
    take the path towards Taiwan independence. ...

    "A faithful description of a country's territory is something that
    [Taiwan] must make in the face of international reality.  What the
    DPP government is doing is in reality something that the Chiang
    Kai-shek and Chiang Ching-kuo administrations should have done years
    ago.  Given the current sensitive triangular relationship between
    Washington, Beijing, and Taipei, if the constitutional reform
    proposal on territorial change is really as simple and plain as the
    ruling government claims it to be, which does not involve any
    long-range political objectives, the ruling government should
    candidly explain the issue to the international community. ..."

    B) "Bian Moving Closer to Hasty Independence, Making It Difficult
    for Wang to Head Cabinet"

    Journalist Hsiao Hsu-tsen said in an analysis in the pro-status quo
    "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] (9/25):

    "President Chen Shui-bian has indeed revealed his trump card for the
    remainder of his term -- he is moving toward hasty independence.
    Once this card is played, it will give a big shock to
    U.S.-China-Taiwan relations.  Su Tseng-chang, who aspires to the
    presidency [in 2008] may find it difficult to stay on in his current
    position, and the rumors that have been circulating for a long time,
    that Wang Jin-pyng may head the Cabinet, will be close to falling
    apart.  By contrast, the chances have suddenly grown higher with
    regard to the rumors that either Mark Chen will head the Cabinet or

    that Yu Shyi-kun will be appointed as the premier again.

    "If Chen touches on the bottom line of writing a new constitution,
    as clearly stated in his 'Four Nos' pledge, the two superpowers, the
    United States and China, will perhaps interfere with Taiwan's
    political situation.  A high-ranking KMT person predicted just
    recently:  'Both Washington and Beijing will keep silent even if one
    million Taiwan people surround the Presidential Office.  But both
    will get angry and show no mercy if Bian changes one word in his
    'Four Nos' pledge!"  [Should this happen], the chances will be slim
    for Wang Jin-pyng, whom the United States deeply trusts and Beijing
    regards as a target for future interaction, to head the Cabinet
    right now. ...

    "Chen's moving closer to hasty independence is a calculated move
    after he weighed the entire political situation.  First, [if he does
    so], Lee Teng-hui, who also is calling for the rectification of
    Taiwan's name and writing a new constitution, will hardly be able to
    impede him.  No matter what Lee's plan is, Lee cannot harm Bian as
    long as the latter stands on the high ground of Taiwan independence.
     Second, Bian chose to use 'his striving for Taiwan independence' as
    his historical legacy.  He will not only not become a figurehead,
    but can also use Taiwan-centered awareness and turn it into an
    umbrella that protects him. ..."

    C) "It's [Chen's] Old Trick to Play the Unification vs. Independence
    Card Whenever [He] Faces Crisis"

    Journalist Huang Ya-shih said in an analysis in the pro-unification
    "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (9/25):

    "For President Chen, the move to toss out the unification vs.
    independence issue can at least hit two targets:  First, the move
    can divert people's attention.  In the highly divided Taiwan
    society, once the ideological battle between unification and
    independence is triggered, every one will join the fight, which will
    naturally weaken the criticism against Bian.  Second, the
    unification vs. independence issue will divide the public into two
    groups and thus shift [public argument] into the controversy over
    whether 'supporting Bian is akin to supporting nativism.'  Over the
    past six years, since Chen came to power, he has been playing and
    manipulating the unification vs. independence card whenever he faces
    a crisis, and his skill has attained perfection. ...

    "The uproar caused by [Chen's move to] 'cease the functions of the
    National Unification Council (NUC)' in early 2006 was a one hundred
    percent issue of unification versus independence.  Chen put out the
    National Unification Guidelines (NUG), which have never been applied
    and have been long forgotten by most people, and spent a lot of
    effort talking up his ideas about 'scrapping the NUC and the NUG.'
    After a long circle, Chen, under U.S. pressure, returned to where he
    started by eventually swallowing the word 'abolition' and changing
    it to 'ceasing.'  What Chen did made zero contribution to helping
    Taiwan move toward substantive Taiwan independence, but Chen himself
    proudly showed off this result to his Green hard-cores as his
    distinguished performance.

    "Changing Taiwan's territory via constitutional amendments is a fake
    topic that is almost impossible to achieve.  Chen has pledged to the
    international community at least ten times that constitutional
    reforms will not involve sovereignty issues such as territorial
    change.  Chen made his pledge repeatedly because he knew that the
    international community, in particular the United States, is
    concerned and clearly opposed to it.  Under such international
    circumstances, can Taiwan possibly insist on pushing the proposal?
    ..."

    WANG

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