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### Viewing cable 04TAIPEI3996, TAIWAN REACTIONS TO CHINA/ASEAN FTA

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04TAIPEI3996 | 2004-12-16 07:31 | 2011-08-23 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | American Institute Taiwan, Taipei

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 003996

    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR EAP/RSP/TC AND EB/TPP/MTA, STATE PASS AIT/W

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ECON ETRD TW
    SUBJECT: TAIWAN REACTIONS TO CHINA/ASEAN FTA

    ¶1.  Summary: Reactions in Taiwan to the announcement of a
    Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between China and the Association
    of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) ranged from dire
    predictions of imminent isolation to suggestions that the
    immediate impact on Taiwan's economy will be minimal.  Most
    analysts, business associations, and officials view the
    China/ASEAN FTA primarily as a political move by China to
    increase its influence in Asia and isolate Taiwan.  Although
    the economic impact may be minimal in the near term, there is
    a shared concern that the agreement represents a trend
    towards regional integration that is excluding Taiwan and
    could eventually lead to the economic marginalization of the
    island.  End Summary.

    ¶2.  Taiwan government officials had varying responses to the
    China/ASEAN FTA.  Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA)
    spokesman Michel Lu accused China and ASEAN of seeking to
    exclude Taiwan from trade in east Asia and promised that MOFA
    would try to find a way to participate in the proposed East
    Asian Summit in 2005.  But Chieh Wen-chi, MOFA's Deputy
    Director of International Organizations cautioned that the
    agreement should be carefully studied to determine whether it
    would exclude Taiwan from the ASEAN market before drawing any
    conclusions.  Chieh noted that all FTAs must comply with WTO
    requirements and that Taiwan's chief exports already benefit
    from low tariffs globally.

    ¶3.  Minister of Economic Affairs Ho Mei-yueh announced
    December 13 that MOEA was studying the impact on Taiwan of
    the China/ASEAN FTA and recommended Taiwan companies minimize
    the impact of the agreement by promoting industrial upgrading
    and globalization.  She suggested that absent FTAs with
    regional trading partners, Taiwan would need to focus its
    efforts on protecting its access to the ASEAN market through
    the World Trade Organization (WTO) framework.  Deputy
    Minister Steve Chen claimed the China/ASEAN FTA would have
    little effect on Taiwan's economy in the near term, but
    warned that Taiwan would face ever stiffer competition in
    ASEAN once the FTA is actually in place, a process that could
    take years.  Chen also noted that Taiwan investors already in
    China or ASEAN countries would benefit from improved access
    to the markets of the other FTA members.

    ¶4.  Economic analysts minimized the immediate economic impact
    on Taiwan, noting that China's motivation for participation
    in the FTA appeared to be mostly political.  According to
    Taiwan Institute for Economic Research (TIER) Vice President
    David Hong, the China/ASEAN FTA will have a small negative
    impact on Taiwan's economy in the near term.  Hong predicted
    2005 GDP growth could be slowed by .05% as a result of the
    agreement.  Labor intensive production in Taiwan would
    suffer, while exports of capital intensive products and
    natural resources could see a small benefit.  Hong added that
    the FTA would increase the pressure for Taiwan to negotiate
    bilateral agreements and improve competitiveness to counter
    the perception that Taiwan was being isolated in Asia.

    ¶5.  Academia Sinica Director of American and European Studies
    Lin Cheng-yi sees China focusing on closer relations with
    ASEAN to combat perceived US dominance of the region.  He
    noted that Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao made ten concrete
    recommendations on steps to improve China/ASEAN ties at the
    recent APEC Summit, including making 2006 a year of
    China/ASEAN cooperation, promoting inter-ministerial
    dialogue, backing an East Asian Summit to be held in
    Malaysia, and creating an East Asian Trade Area with a
    prominent role for ASEAN.  Although Taiwan investment in
    ASEAN countries is greater than Chinese investment in the
    region, trade between China and ASEAN, almost US$100 billion
    per year and growing rapidly, is about three times
    Taiwan/ASEAN trade.  This rapid growth in trade flows has
    given China greater influence in the region when compared to
    Taiwan.  Lin also pointed out that Taiwan has not placed much
    emphasis on improving economic ties with Southeast Asia,
    instead focusing on improving relations with Japan and the
    US.  This emphasis will make it difficult for Taiwan to
    counter China's growing economic influence in Southeast Asia
    and make it more imperative for Taiwan to build stronger
    trade ties to Japan and the US.

    ¶6.  Vice Chairman Tsai Hong-ming, of the Chinese National
    Federation of Industries (CNFI), one of Taiwan's leading
    industrial associations, believes most business people fear
    the economic marginalization of Taiwan industry.  But he also
    noted that Taiwan does not compete directly with Chinese or
    ASEAN products in most markets.  Most products traded between
    ASEAN and China will not directly affect Taiwan's
    competitiveness, according to Tsai.  Taiwan producers of more
    labor intensive goods may face stiffer competition, but many
    of these have already shifted production to China or ASEAN
    countries and will actually benefit from the FTA.

    ¶7.  Tsai suggests that the real concern for Taiwan should be
    on the potential loss of competitiveness resulting from lack
    of regional integration and the growing cross-Strait
    imbalance of trade.  Taiwan's ability to attract investment
    may suffer from the perception that Taiwan is disadvantaged
    in regional trade.  However, he also noted that the ASEAN
    countries will have many reservations in the actual
    implementation of the FTA and that the actual effects on
    regional trade are likely to be delayed.

    ¶8.  Comment: Most observers in Taiwan are concerned about the
    potential for marginalization of Taiwan's economy in the
    region.  The China/ASEAN FTA is a potent symbol of a trend
    towards regional economic integration that is excluding
    Taiwan.  But in the near term, the effect of this FTA on
    Taiwan's economy appears to be small.  Taiwan economic
    officials continue to believe Taiwan's economic development
    is best served by creating an environment friendly to
    investment and development of value-added production.  But
    they also are concerned that Taiwan's competitiveness will
    suffer if it continues to be excluded from regional economic
    arrangements.  End Summary.
    PAAL

`