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### Viewing cable 04TAIPEI3959, MEDIA REACTION: TAIWAN'S LEGISLATIVE ELECTION

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04TAIPEI3959 | 2004-12-13 23:35 | 2011-08-23 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | American Institute Taiwan, Taipei

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 003959

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD -
    ROBERT PALLADINO
    DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
    SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: TAIWAN'S LEGISLATIVE ELECTION

    A)  "Politics [Should] Return to Basics"

    Professor Chu Yun-han of National Taiwan University's
    Department of Political Science said in the centrist,
    pro-status quo "China Times" (12/13);

    "The spokesperson of the U.S. State Department said
    `the United States salutes the people of Taiwan'
    immediately after the outcome of [Saturday's]
    legislative elections was revealed, and one can easily
    see [Washington's] excitement behind that statement.
    The outcome of the elections, to a certain extent, has
    excluded the possibility of `overall rule' by the DPP
    government headed by President Chen Shui-bian for the
    next three years.  It has also significantly cut back
    on the room the Pan-Green alliance has for political
    operations intended to promote `a referendum on the new
    constitution' and `the name changes [plan] for Taiwan.'
    As far as Washington is concerned, the outcome of the
    elections is equivalent to the de-fusing of a bomb by
    the majority of Taiwan voters -- [a bomb] which might
    finally have triggered a military showdown between the
    two sides of the Taiwan Strait.  Also, for the time
    being, it has saved the United States from having to
    take the trouble to impose serious measures that might
    jeopardize Taiwan in order to de-fuse the bomb by
    itself.  Moreover, the outcome of the elections has
    offered the United States a special warrant based on
    `respect for the majority opinion in Taiwan' to monitor
    Chen's [words and behaviors] in the future. .

    "Compared with the March presidential election, nearly
    3.5 million voters [chose to be] absent from Saturday's
    legislative elections because they are disinclined to
    [get involved in] politics and they are disappointed
    with Taiwan's future political direction.  . The
    majority of voters chose to let the Pan-Blue alliance
    retain the majority of [seats in] the Legislative Yuan
    [as a way] of buying themselves a package of
    comprehensive insurance.  They hoped to rule out the
    risk of intensified conflict across the Taiwan Strait
    that might be caused by the DPP [controlling both the
    Presidential Office and Legislative Yuan].  They also
    wanted to rule out the risk of accelerating corruption,
    abuses of power, and violation of laws - a natural
    consequence resulting from the defeat of the Pan-Blue
    alliance as the DPP would become dominant as the ruling
    party.  They hoped to keep the development of Taiwan's
    future political situation open so that the legislative
    elections in 2007 and the presidential election in 2008
    will remain an undetermined chess game for both the Pan-
    Blue and Pan-Green alliances.

    "Those roughly 2.2 million voters who supported
    President Chen with regard to his re-election half a
    year ago did not come out to vote or even chose to vote
    for Pan-Blue alliance candidates or independent
    candidates this time.  This means that the issues that
    Chen focused on during the [presidential election]
    campaign failed to meet their expectations as priority
    policies that Chen should deal with in his second term
    of office. .  But Chen's administration still tried to
    use the illusionary `national identity' issue . .
    [This strategy] simply failed to work this time.

    "Public opinion revealed by the outcome of Saturday's
    legislative elections contains significant revelations
    for future leaders of both the Pan-Blue and Pan-Green
    alliances.  For the future leaders of the Pan-Green
    camp, Saturday's election results have proved that the
    political power of the Pan-Green camp has not grown as
    fast as expected. .  Whether the DPP should choose the
    middle-of-the road approach again will definitely
    become the focus of arguments within the party.  The
    most important revelation of Saturday's elections is
    that ... it takes real political achievements to expand
    the political power [of a political party] and [a
    political party] cannot rely on political schemes and
    flair. ."

    B) "Make a Choice between the Pan-Blue Alliance's
    Completing Legislation for a Referendum on Taiwan
    Independence and the DPP's Abolishing Its Party
    Platform on Taiwan Independence"

    The conservative, pro-unification "United Daily News"
    editorialized (12/13):

    "The Pan-Blue alliance has secured a majority of seats
    in the Legislative Yuan [following Saturday's
    legislative election].  The first task that the new
    legislature, which will start operating next spring,
    should do is to pass legislation and make `the
    referendum on Taiwan independence' a legal mechanism. .

    "Objectively speaking, the Pan-Blue alliance's reserved
    attitude toward the referendum on Taiwan independence
    and the United States' attempts to restrain such a
    referendum are both a result of their good intentions,
    hoping that the DPP will not put itself in an
    unfavorable position.  President Chen, however,
    distorted and took advantage of these good intentions,
    which in the end have become an amulet for Chen to
    manipulate the Taiwan independence issue
    unscrupulously. .

    ". In other words, both the United States and the Pan-
    Blue alliance hope to hold back the holding of a
    referendum on Taiwan independence, but instead, they
    have been held hostages by the Taiwan independence
    issue. .

    "To change this situation, the first thing [the new
    legislature] should do is to complete legislation for
    holding a referendum on Taiwan independence.  The only
    resolution [to such a dispute] is to return the right
    to decide whether Taiwan should declare independence
    back to the Taiwan people.  If the majority of Taiwan
    people decide that Taiwan should declare independence,
    then we should move ahead [toward such a goal] in full
    gear; if not, then the President should no longer
    trample upon the constitutional rule. .

    C) "Taipei-Washington Ties in the Aftermath of the
    Legislative Election: the United States [Had Better]
    Talk Less"

    Lin Cheng-yi, Research Fellow at the Institute of
    International Relations, National Chengchi University,
    said in an op-ed piece in the conservative, pro-
    unification "United Daily News" (12/12):

    ". Perhaps the Bush administration may think that since
    the Pan-Blue alliance won the majority of seats in the
    Legislative Yuan, the movements to push for Taiwan's
    constitutional reform and name changes will face more
    obstacles, thus reducing the opportunities for the Chen
    Shui-bian administration to provoke Beijing.  But
    Washington should also review its inconsistent position
    toward Taiwan's democratic development.

    "[The United States] used to use its arms sales to
    Taiwan as a means to pressure the KMT to lift martial
    law, and now it is citing security as a reason to
    pressure the DPP to restrain its political reforms.
    Washington's way of handling the Taiwan referendum
    issue seems to fall into a predicament along the lines
    of  `[We] don't like it but [we] cannot stop it.' . The
    Bush administration now tends to make a more public and
    more immediate response when reacting to unfavorable
    behavior from Taipei, leaving the latter no room for
    imagination.  Given the [fact that the] Pan-Blue
    alliance won the majority in the Legislative Yuan, the
    United States may have less chance to make such
    hegemonic responses."

    D) "More Work Needs to Be Done"

    The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times"
    noted in an editorial (12/13):

    . "The election is being interpreted everywhere as a
    rejection of Taiwan separatism.  Certainly there was a
    sense that themes from Chen's campaigning would, if
    realized, raise tensions with China.  But there was
    also a wide realization that many of these would be
    impossible to attain, given that the pan-greens would
    never win the super-majority needed to make
    constitutional changes on their own.  So there was a
    strange hollowness about the DPP's Chen-centered
    campaign, an emptiness that resulted in some 2.25
    million who voted green in March - a third of the total
    votes for Chen - not showing up at the polls Saturday.

    "But while voters might have balked at the risky road
    the DPP seemed to be taking, Taiwan consciousness is
    not going to go away.  Remember it was the strongly pro-
    reunification People First Party that was the big loser
    in the election, seeing a quarter of its seats go to
    the more moderate Chinese Nationalist Party. ."

    PAAL

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