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### Viewing cable 06GUANGZHOU31565, South China's Taiwan Scholars Concerned about Chen, but

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06GUANGZHOU31565 | 2006-10-20 00:12 | 2011-08-23 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Guangzhou

`

    VZCZCXRO5060
    RR RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
    DE RUEHGZ #1565/01 2930012
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 200012Z OCT 06
    FM AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4774
    INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC
    RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GUANGZHOU 031565

    SIPDIS

    PACOM FOR FPA
    STATE FOR EUR/CM AND DRL

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI CH TW
    SUBJECT: South China's Taiwan Scholars Concerned about Chen, but
    Believe KMT Will Win in '07 and '08

    (U)  This document is sensitive but unclassified, please protect
    accordingly.

    ¶1. SUMMARY AND COMMENT:  Taiwan research centers throughout South
    China are concerned about Chen Shui-bian's strategy for
    constitutional reform and the impact it could have on cross-Strait
    ties.  They also worry that the anti-Chen campaign could have a
    significant negative impact on Taiwan's economic growth as well its
    national well-being.  While some argue the campaign may have helped
    the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the short-term, most agree
    Chen will lose the Presidential election in 2008, but are unclear
    what a loss will mean in terms of the DPP's future.  Some elements
    in the KMT - the old guard for instance - appear to be using the
    current political turmoil in Taiwan to push an agenda for improved
    relations with the mainland; a limited reconciliation, but not
    resolution of the "one China" issue.  Recent visits by former KMT
    Party leader Lien Chan and others to South China don't necessarily
    signal a "back-channel diplomacy" to Beijing by current KMT
    officials like Ma Yingjeou, who will not want to be painted by the
    brush of appearing to be too eager to enter into China's embrace.
    China, of course, will see these visits differently and portray them
    as a clear sign of the desire on the part of the people of Taiwan
    for warmer relations.  END SUMMARY AND COMMENT.

    GDASS Taiwan Research Institute
    -------------------------------

    ¶2. (SBU) The Guangdong Academy of Social Science's (GDASS) Hong
    Kong, Macau and Taiwan Research Center is one of only three
    Guangdong-based Taiwan research institutes (the others are in
    Shantou and Shenzhen).  The center - which was established four
    years ago and focuses on the province's regional economic
    cooperation with Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan - has only one scholar
    dedicated to Taiwan political issues, Fan Haiquan.  Fan, who is
    known for his hawkish views, told visiting Poloff that he is
    technically retired, and his research interests are not dictated by
    the Beijing Taiwan Affairs Office.  However, the institute
    occasionally receives national- and provincial-level research
    assignments on certain topics, such as Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan
    investment.  Additionally, the institute sometimes approaches
    municipal and county leaders with research proposals on strategies
    to increase Taiwan investment.

    Anti-Chen Protests Helpful to DPP
    ---------------------------------

    ¶3. (SBU) In a meeting with Poloff on October 16, Fan criticized U.S.
    military support of Taiwan, which he says emboldens Taiwan with a
    false sense of support.  He believes that U.S. policy is shifting
    towards supporting mainland China's views, but that the process is
    "too slow."  Regarding Taiwan's domestic politics, Fan argued that
    the anti-Chen Suibian protests over the past few months have
    actually helped the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).  He cited a
    recent Kaohsiung poll showing that Kuomintang (KMT) popularity had
    decreased by four percent, while DPP popularity had increased in the
    past few months.  Polls generally showed Chen's popularity slightly
    increasing, with the KMT's Ma Ying-jeou's popularity slightly
    decreasing.

    ...But DPP has Reached its Peak
    -------------------------------

    ¶4. (SBU) In a recent article, Fan criticized the political parties
    in Taiwan, calling the major parties "five ghosts" that are not able
    to represent the people's will.  He concluded that Taiwan's
    democratic situation is not as "mature" as in the West, and that the
    current situation hinders the growth of democracy.  Fan said that
    the KMT's control of the Legislative Yuan (LY), recent mayoral and
    county-level electoral success, and the downturn in the economy all
    have seriously damaged the DPP's prestige and that the upcoming
    elections do not look good for the DPP.

    KMT Will Win in 2006, 2007, and 2008
    ------------------------------------

    ¶5. (SBU) Fan believes the KMT will win all three of the major
    elections -- the 2006 Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral elections, the
    2007 legislative elections, and the 2008 Presidential election.  In
    the LY, he believes the KMT will likely gain 70 seats and the DPP
    will get between 30 and 40 seats; the People First Party will still
    be the third major party, followed by the Taiwan Solidarity Union.
    Because of the proximity of the 2007 legislative elections to the
    2008 Presidential election, Fan said the overall winner of 2007
    elections will likely win the Presidential election as well.

    GUANGZHOU 00031565  002 OF 003

    FASS Taiwan Research Institute
    --------------------------------

    ¶6. (SBU) The Fujian Academy of Social Science's (FASS) Taiwan
    Research Institute, founded in the 1970's as mainland China's first
    Taiwan research institute, has 12 scholars working on Taiwan
    political, economic, and trade relations, as well as general social
    developments.  Taiwan is a theme that engages officials and scholars
    on an everyday basis, with some seeing the three links as a key to
    future economic development; 80,000-100,000 Taiwan citizens already
    live in Fujian.  In July, FASS scholars told Poloff they were "very
    concerned about the future of Taiwan before 2008," specifically
    citing Chen Shui-bian's "striding toward independence."  The
    scholars believe that Chen will not be re-elected, because the
    majority of Taiwan people want him to step down.  The scholars
    stated that the Taiwan people are "tired of corruption and six years
    of a presidency with no major accomplishment."  One scholar noted
    that he had recently met with the former chairman of mainland
    affairs from Taiwan, who said the DPP is facing its "biggest crisis
    since its establishment."

    ¶7. (SBU) The institute also focuses on the development of the
    "Western Taiwan Straits Economic Zone" and the expansion of the
    "three links."  One scholar mentioned that in a July conference in
    Taiwan on sustainable development, virtually all of the Taiwan
    officials, academics, and entrepreneurs recommended that there be
    fewer economic restrictions across the straits.  As for the Chinese
    military threat toward Taiwan, one scholar reaffirmed China's
    commitment to peaceful development, and said that the Sino-Russian
    joint air and amphibious exercise in the summer of 2005, which many
    interpreted as a demonstration of China's capabilities, was
    primarily an anti-terrorism exercise.

    Xiamen University's Taiwan Research Institute
    ---------------------------------------------

    ¶8. (U) In 1983, Fujian Province created a second Taiwan research
    institute at Xiamen University (previously the institute had focused
    only on Taiwan's culture and literature).  Xiamen University's
    Taiwan Research Institute, which the consulate has visited many
    times, is regarded as South China's premier think tank on Taiwan.
    Recent articles from the institute's spring edition of the "Taiwan
    Research Quarterly" focused on the dangers of Chen Shui-bian's
    constitutional reforms.  In one article, scholar Li Peng concluded
    that Taiwan's economic depression and political and social unrest
    are all connected with the constitutional debates in Taiwan.  Li
    argued that the debate on reforming the constitution has "given rise
    to a different orientation of Taiwan's self-understanding."
    Consequently, Li wrote, a "chaos" of national identity has fallen on
    the Taiwan people, faith in the constitutional order has been lost,
    and relations between mainland China and Taiwan have worsened.
    Another of the Institute's scholars, Zhang Wensheng, argued that
    Chen's goal since 2000 has been "de jure Taiwan Independence though
    Constitutional Reform."  Due to objections from the Taiwan public,
    mainland China, and the international community, however, Zhang
    suggested that Chen believed it was now impossible to complete
    constitutional reform, as he would be forced to amend the
    constitution, and under the current circumstances, that was not
    possible.

    Recent Taiwan Visitors to South China
    -------------------------------------

    ¶9. (U) Lien Chan, former Chairman of the KMT, and an entourage of 17
    other KMT leaders recently have been traveling across South China as
    part of a 16-day mainland trip.  In April 2005, Lien led the first
    delegation of top KMT leaders to the mainland since 1949.  During
    their visit to Guangzhou on October 12, 2006, the group visited
    Huanghuagang, a Martyr Grave for soldiers who died during a failed
    coup against the Qing Dynasty Government.  Although Lien does not
    represent the current KMT leadership, the provincial leadership in
    Guangzhou gave him a warm welcome, with meetings with Guangdong
    Party Secretary Zhang Dejiang and Guangzhou Party Secretary Zhu
    Xiaodan to discuss Taiwan investment in the province.  The South
    China Morning Post reported that during his discussions, Lien blamed
    Chen Shuibian for creating "lots of obstacles to cross-strait
    relations," and that his polices have put Taiwan on "the way of
    recession" because of closed-door economic policies.  Lien's group
    also traveled to Hainan Province where, on October 16, Lien
    delivered the opening address for a 400-person cross-strait
    agricultural forum between the KMT and the Chinese Communist Party
    (CCP).  Lien said that he hoped the forum would allow Taiwan's
    farmers to sell more of their products to the vast mainland market,
    and that mainland farmers could learn from the technological

    GUANGZHOU 00031565  003 OF 003

    advances of Taiwan.

    GOLDBERG

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