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### Viewing cable 07AITTAIPEI691, MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS, DPRK, IRAN

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07AITTAIPEI691 | 2007-03-27 09:54 | 2011-08-23 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | American Institute Taiwan, Taipei

`

    VZCZCXYZ0007
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHIN #0691/01 0860954
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 270954Z MAR 07
    FM AIT TAIPEI
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4627
    INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6532
    RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 7776

` `

    UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000691

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - LLOYD NEIGHBORS
    DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
    SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS, DPRK, IRAN

    ¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies continued to
    focus news coverage March 27 on the 2008 presidential elections, on
    the alleged scandal involving the privatization of the Taiwan
    Television Enterprise, and on other local issues.  In terms of
    editorials and commentaries, an op-ed piece in the mass-circulation
    "Apple Daily" provided a unique perspective on strategic thinking in
    U.S.-Taiwan relations.  The articles pointed out that how Beijing
    determines its future national status will have a strong impact on
    the U.S. position and its corresponding policies toward China.  An
    op-ed piece in the limited-circulation, pro-independence,
    English-language "Taipei Times," on the other hand, discussed the
    appointment of Taiwan's incumbent Mainland Affairs Council Chairman
    Joseph Wu as the new TECRO chief.  The article said "Wu's mission
    will be a daunting one.  He will have to engage in substantive
    diplomacy, restore mutual trust between Washington and Taipei and
    help bolster friendly and mutually beneficial relations between the
    US and Taiwan."  With regard to North Korea, a column in the
    pro-status quo "China Times" said the real substantive change now
    happening in Northeast Asia is that Pyongyang, sensing China's
    threats against its regime, has started to keep its distance from
    Beijing and to develop relations with Washington proactively.  A
    separate "China Times" column discussed Iran and said Iran's
    determination to confront the United States is far stronger than
    what the public have imagined, because the Iranians firmly believe
    that the United States intends to cheat, oppress and even destroy
    their nation.  End summary.

    ¶2. U.S.-Taiwan Relations

    A) "Strategic Thoughts on U.S.-Taiwan Relations"

    Xue Litai, research fellow at Stanford University's Center for
    International Security and Cooperation, noted in the
    mass-circulation "Apple Daily" [circulation: 520,000] (3/27):

    "Beijing normally appears willing to compromise when dealing with
    issues involving the United States, but the Taiwan issue stands out
    as the most dangerous exception.  The conflicts surrounding Taiwan's
    status have far exceeded the issue of national dignity. ...  It is
    obvious that in the foreseeable future, the question regarding which
    direction cross-Strait relations will slide toward -- as judged from
    the bigger strategic picture and regardless of other factors -- at
    least involves Beijing's policy about how it will determine China's
    future national status, and as to what ensues, the United States'
    perception and judgment of China's national position as well as its
    corresponding policies [derived from such perception].  When
    discussing the future direction of cross-Strait relations and the
    hidden reality of Washington's Taiwan policy in the past, scholars
    and officials from all three sides rarely talk about the possible
    impact of China's national positioning on the U.S. position and its
    relevant policies.  But this is in reality the crucial point.  To
    put it more straightforwardly, this layer is the real truth beneath
    the surface, whereas the 'policies' and 'positions' are merely ways
    of saying it.

    "Taipei is showing enormous energy as it manages to survive while
    sandwiched between the two giants - the United States and China -
    and is able to make one move after the other.  Even though both
    Beijing and Washington want to prevent a big war of the century,
    they cannot exclude the possibility of both sides making a military
    showdown over the Taiwan issue.  Every side is watching with its
    eyes wide open as cross-Strait relations slide toward a precipitous
    cliff, but no one can do anything about it."

    B) "Though Challenges Ahead for Wu"

    Li Thian-hok, a freelance commentator based in Pennsylvania,
    commented in the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times"
    [circulation: 30,000] (3/27):

    "... [Joseph] Wu is familiar with President Chen Shui-bian's ideas
    and vision for Taiwan and has the full confidence of the president.
    There is therefore cause for optimism that the new envoy will be
    able to contribute to the restoration of mutual trust between
    Washington and Taipei in the critical last year of Chen's
    presidency. ...  One of Wu's first tasks -- even before he leaves
    for the US -- will be to ensure that Chen ceases making such
    provocative statements by explaining to him the difficult situation
    the US is facing.  US military forces are bogged down in Iraq and
    Afghanistan and extrication appears years away.  If there is a
    conflict over Taiwan, the already overstretched US military might
    not be able to join the battle in time.

    "In another scenario, the US would arrive late on the scene and take
    heavy casualties.  In any event, the US President George W. Bush
    administration feels that any decision to involve the US military in
    battle against the PLA in the Taiwan Strait should be made by
    Washington, not by Taipei.  Taiwan must be sensitive to US fears
    that any action by Taiwan could be perceived by Beijing as a move

    toward formal independence and trigger a conflict at a most
    inopportune time.  This does not mean, however, that Taipei should
    kowtow to each and every whim of the Bush administration, which is
    so preoccupied with the Middle East quagmire that it pays little
    attention to the growing potential for conflict in the Taiwan
    Strait, with or without provocation by Taiwan. ...

    "Wu's second task as representative to the US will be to educate the
    US policy elite on the objectives and strategy of the pan-blue
    opposition, which seeks Taiwan's annexation by China at the earliest
    opportunity.  Hence, their consistent opposition to the acquisition
    of US weapons, which are badly needed for the defense of the nation.
     Through its united front tactics, China is effectively interfering
    in Taiwan's domestic politics.  Even though the Taiwan Relations Act
    purports to protect the human rights of Taiwanese -- including their
    right to determine their own future -- Washington may be reluctant
    to get in the middle of partisan bickering between the DPP and the
    pan-blue opposition. ...

    "It is unreasonable for the US to hold Taipei to its 'four noes, one
    without' promise when the US is unable to persuade Beijing to
    renounce the use of force and cease its active preparation for war.
    Washington should be reminded that while, in the short term, the US
    may need to avoid conflict with China over Taiwan, its long-term
    strategic interests require Taiwan to resist annexation by the PRC,
    because once Taiwan falls, it would be very difficult for Japan to
    resist becoming a vassal state of China.  US forces will then have
    to be withdrawn from Asia and the US' political, economic and
    strategic interests in the Western Pacific would sustain
    incalculable losses.

    "Yet to sustain their morale and will to resist Chinese aggression,
    Taiwanese must have hope that their struggle to maintain their
    freedoms has a chance of success, with support from allies such as
    the US and Japan.  This means Washington must be careful in its
    dealing with Taipei, lest it give the impression that the US is
    working with Beijing to undermine Taiwan's sovereignty and
    democracy.  Washington should weigh the inherent dilemma between its
    short-term goal of avoiding war in the Taiwan Strait and the
    longer-term objective of denying China's hegemonic ambitions in
    Asia.  Preserving Taiwan's freedoms is also the way to steer China
    toward peaceful development.  Wu should urge the Bush administration
    to consider dropping its insistence upon the 'four noes, one
    without' -- for Chen and his successor.  Wu's mission will be a
    daunting one.  He will have to engage in substantive diplomacy,
    restore mutual trust between Washington and Taipei and help bolster
    friendly and mutually beneficial relations between the US and
    Taiwan."

    ¶3. DPRK

    "Keeping a Distance from Beijing, Pyongyang Starts to Embrace
    Washington"

    Deputy Editor-in-Chief Kuo Chen-lung noted in the International
    Column in the pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000]
    (3/27):

    "The interaction between North Korea, the United States, and China
    in the past, to put it simply, was that the United States could do
    nothing about Pyongyang, while the latter relied on China.  As a
    result, whenever the United States sought help from China, China
    could use North Korea as a bargaining chip to take advantage of the
    United States in international relations or even cross-Strait
    relations.  But the sudden change in Washington-Pyongyang relations
    recently has not only surprised Japan and South Korea but has also
    astounded China. ...

    "The real substantive change happening in Northeast Asia is:
    sensing China's threats against its regime, Pyongyang starts to keep
    a distance from Beijing and to develop relations with Washington
    proactively.  Judged from this perspective, Kim Jong-il's move to
    spend the Lantern Festival at the Chinese embassy in Pyongyang did
    not signify his appreciation toward China over the latter's
    assistance to North Korea, as the world has imagined.  Instead, it
    was a diplomatically perfunctory move simply to give China face."

    ¶4. Iran

    "Iran Still Will Not Yield to the UNSC Resolution"

    The "International Outlook" column in the pro-status quo "China
    Times" [circulation: 400,000] wrote (3/27):

    "... Iran's determination to resist the United States is far beyond
    what the world has generally imagined, and in order to confront the
    United States, Iran resists all Western policies against itself as
    well.  What happens here is neither the clash of civilizations, as
    Samuel Huntington has pointed out, nor conflicts between Islamic and

    Christian culture, but the fact that Iranians firmly believe that
    the United States intends to cheat and oppress and even to destroy
    their nation.  As a result, the usually divided Iran is tightly
    united now.  President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not stupid; he is so
    anti-U.S. because he understands the Iranians' emotions at this
    moment.  Thus, the stronger the pressure imposed by the Western
    world gets, the less possible it is for Iran to yield. ..."

    WANG

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