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### Viewing cable 06MADRID857, SPAIN: ZAPATERO ANNOUNCES SURPRISE CHANGES TO

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06MADRID857 | 2006-04-07 15:48 | 2010-12-06 12:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Madrid

`

    VZCZCXRO6319
    PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHMRE RUEHROV RUEHSR
    DE RUEHMD #0857/01 0971548
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 071548Z APR 06
    FM AMEMBASSY MADRID
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9363
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
    RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 4933
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0921
    RUEHLA/AMCONSUL BARCELONA 1843
    RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC
    RUCNFB/FBI WASHDC
    RUEAHLC/HOMELAND SECURITY CENTER WASHINGTON DC
    RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
    RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 000857

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2015
    TAGS: PGOV PREL SP
    SUBJECT: SPAIN: ZAPATERO ANNOUNCES SURPRISE CHANGES TO
    CABINET

    MADRID 00000857 001.2 OF 002

    Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission J. Robert Manzanares; Reasons 1.
    4 (B) and (D).

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary. In a surprise announcement April 7,
    President Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero named new Defense,
    Interior and Education Ministers. Jose Bono is out as
    Defense Minister, to be replaced by Jose Antonio Alonso who
    moves over from his post as Interior Minister. Current
    Socialist spokesman in Parliament and member of Zapatero's
    inner circle, Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba, will take over the
    Interior Ministry and Mercedes Cabrera Calvo-Sotelo will
    replace Maria Jesus San Segundo as Minster of Education. The
    cabinet changes are the first since Zapatero and the
    Socialist Party (PSOE) took office following the March 2004
    elections. The Ambassador called Bono and Alonso to thank
    them for their work with the U.S. Bono expressed his
    admiration for the U.S. and said he was uncertain what he
    would be doing next. Alonso said that had a good
    relationship with U.S. officials as Minister of Interior and
    was used to cooperating with the USG. Alonso also said the
    U.S. should expect "no negative surprises" from him as
    Minister of Defense and suggested that he and the Ambassador
    meet immediately after the Easter holidays for a
    comprehensive review of U.S.-Spain defense issues. The
    Ambassador was unable to reach Rubalcaba, but will speak with
    him as soon as possible to offer continued close
    counterterrorism communication. End Summary.

    //THE ETA FACTOR//

    ¶2. (C) Embassy's initial analysis on the Interior and Defense
    Ministry changes is that Zapatero's ETA policy is the driving
    force, although there is some speculation that Bono himself
    asked to leave and this is a shuffle forced on Zapatero.
    Whatever the cause, Zapatero has put into place key allies as
    he pursues his strategy with ETA following the March 26
    announcement of a ceasefire. Rubalcaba has been the brain
    trust on the ETA policy and putting him in place as Interior
    Minister solidifies his role and gives him the authority to
    devise and implement Zapatero's policies on ETA, while
    ensuring political control over police actions against ETA.

    ¶3. (C) Moving Alonso to Defense removes Bono -- a longtime
    rival of Zapatero. Bono has not been seen as favorable
    towards Zapatero's policies favoring increased powers for
    Spain's regions. This puts Alonso -- a close personal friend
    of Zapatero -- into a key position as Zapatero consolidates
    his political support and moves his ETA strategy forward.
    Zapatero's popularity has increased considerably and he
    likely feels he no longer needs to keep Bono close to him.
    However, free from the restraint that comes in being in
    government, Bono may be a wildcard for Zapatero on the
    political scene.

    //CHANGES AT MOD//

    ¶4. (C) The change at the MOD is important for the US, given
    the extent of our Defense relationship with the GOS. While
    not necessarily in any "pro-US" camp, Alonso has been
    favorable to cooperation with the US on counter-terrorism.
    He has visited the US in his role as Interior Minister and
    has met with Attorney General Alberto Gonzales and FBI
    Director Robert Mueller -- both in Spain and in the US. The
    Ambassador has a cordial relationship with Alonso and the
    Embassy works well with his staff. These relationships could
    be helpful as Alonso assumes his new role at Defense.

    ¶5. (C) Moving Alonso to Defense will likely mean there will
    be other changes in the ministry as well, although it may
    take until June to see all the changes that could take place.
    A PSOE official in the Ministry told the Embassy that the
    military leadership is unlikely to be affected by the change.
    However, Alonso has been interested for quite some time in
    removing Civil Guard Director General Gomez Arruche, so
    Arruche's days may be numbered. Other sources tell us that
    Alberto Saiz, the head of the Spanish Intelligence Service
    (the CNI, which falls under the MOD) might be replaced, as he
    was directly appointed by Bono and was considered a strong
    Bono ally.

    MADRID 00000857 002.2 OF 002

    ¶6. (C) Sources also said Bono has been "feeling
    uncomfortable" in the Defense Ministry for "a long time."
    Spanish media is reporting that Bono might be done with
    politics for good, but post thinks that unlikely. With Bono
    out of the picture, a PSOE advisor told the Embassy that the
    "Moratinos line on foreign policy has obtained a victory."
    Though Bono has portrayed himself and is widely seen as a
    "friend" of the US, his actions on Venezuela defense sales,
    the Spanish troop withdrawal from Iraq and other issues
    sometimes belie this image.

    //CHANGES AT MOI//

    ¶7. (C) A Partido Popular (PP) advisor told the Embassy that
    Rubalcaba is unlikely to make many changes at Interior
    because many of "his people" are already in place. MFA
    Director General for North America and Europe, Jose Pons,
    told the DCM that one or two key Interior officials (such as
    Antonio Camacho, currently serving as Alonso's deptuty) may
    be headed to Defense with Alonso. Rubalcaba is not known as
    a friend of the US; however, he may well see it in his
    interest to continue the CT cooperation with the US that was
    put in place by his predecessor. Rubalcaba is seen as smart
    and experienced and has the skills necessary to influence
    people. Tapping him for Minster of Interior is proof
    positive that Zapatero is serious about succeeding with ETA.

    //PP REACTION//

    ¶8. (C) Popular Party leader Mariano Rajoy wasted little time
    in criticizing the selection of Rubalcaba as Interior
    Minister (stating bluntly that the PP "does not trust
    Rubalcaba") and lamenting Bono's departure. Rajoy's comments
    on Rubalcaba reflect Rubalcaba's reputation as a skilled, and
    highly partisan, political actor who has worked hard to
    outmaneuver and isolate the PP. Bono, on the other hand, is
    among the most conservative PSOE leaders so it is
    understandable that the PP would be sad to see him go. He
    agreed with the PP in opposing greater autonomy to the
    Catalan or Basque regions and was seen by the PP as a brake
    on Zapatero's readiness to deal with the regional
    governments. Interestingly, a PP think tank speculated that
    Alonso was moved to the MOD in part because Alonso had
    developed good relations with U.S. counterparts during his
    stint as Interior Minister. The think tank contrasted Bono's
    "strident positions within Spain and abroad" with Alonso's
    ability to inspire confidence both within Spain and with the
    USG.

    //COMMENT//

    ¶9. (C) Comment: Zapatero has installed two of his closest
    allies into key positions in his cabinet. Neither one runs
    the risk of being seen as a political competitor of Zapatero
    -- one of the problems that contributed to Bono's departure.
    Both Alonso and Rubalcaba will carry out Zapatero's strategy
    with ETA to the letter -- a strategy that is no doubt
    directed at winning the next national elections with an
    absolute majority. Political observers were impressed that
    Zapatero organized the cabinet reshuffle in complete secrecy.
    Clearly, Zapatero is using this cabinet shuffle, whatever
    the cause, to move swiftly to take advantage of recent
    victories and has consolidated his control over his
    government and the Socialist Party.
    AGUIRRE

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