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### Viewing cable 06TAIPEI1461, Kaohsiung Mayoral Election - Preliminary Report

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06TAIPEI1461 | 2006-04-28 01:29 | 2011-08-23 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | American Institute Taiwan, Taipei

`

    VZCZCXRO7380
    PP RUEHCN RUEHGH
    DE RUEHIN #1461/01 1180129
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    P 280129Z APR 06
    FM AIT TAIPEI
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9907
    INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5125
    RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 0083
    RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 1226
    RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 5184
    RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 9272
    RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6328

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 001461

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP

    FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
    SUBJECT: Kaohsiung Mayoral Election - Preliminary Report

    REF: A) 2005 TAIPEI 4353   B) 2005 TAIPEI 3856    C) 2005 TAIPEI

    3793   D) 2005 TAIPEI 4799

    SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY.

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary:  In the run-up to the DPP and KMT primaries,  DPP
    elected officials and supporters are urging DPP's Central Office to
    recruit Acting Kaohsiung Mayor Yeh Chu-lan as its candidate in the
    upcoming December Kaohsiung mayoral election.  Although former
    Council of Labor Affairs chairperson Chen Chu is likely to win an
    actual DPP primary, Yeh is deemed by pragmatists as a better
    candidate because she belongs to no DPP faction and remains
    untainted by the Kaohsiung Rapid Transit Corporation (KRTC) scandal
    (reftels A, B, C).  The Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) has announced
    its intention to nominate its own Secretary General and Kaohsiung
    City Legislator Lo Chi-ming to run in the mayoral election. Despite
    Lo's many public calls for the DPP to work with the TSU to jointly
    nominate a pan-green candidate to avoid splitting green votes, the
    DPP's factional splits and low morale among local supporters prevent
    that type of cooperation at this time.  Riding high on KMT Chairman
    Ma's reputation for party discipline and cleanliness, the ten KMT
    hopefuls for the mayoral nomination have pledged to respect the
    party's primary results and give full support to the party's
    candidate, who is likely to be former KMT Kaohsiung vice mayor Huang
    Chun-ying.  Huang's popularity, academic prestige and administrative
    experience as vice mayor, puts him out front as the KMT's best
    candidate to recapture to Kaohsiung City's mayoral seat. End
    Summary.

    DPP Tensions, Postponed Primaries and TSU Pleas
    --------------------------------------------- --

    ¶2.  (SBU)  The DPP and the KMT have scheduled their primaries for
    Kaohsiung City Mayor to May 28 and May 27 respectively.  Both
    primaries will determine mayoral candidates by judging the results
    of party member voting (weighted at 30 percent) and public polls
    (weighted at 70 percent).  Results will be announced at the end of
    May or the beginning of June.  In order to ease tension among
    factions, the DPP postponed the required primary registration date
    from April 24 to May 1 to await former Premier Hsieh Chang-ting's
    April 29 return from the U.S.  Local DPP officials told AIT/K that
    Hsieh plays an important role in the DPP mayoral nomination due to
    his local influence as former Kaohsiung Mayor.  Hsieh's associates
    pointed out to AIT/K that central DPP authorities hope Hsieh's
    inevitable influence in candidate selection will place the potential
    loss of the yearend election squarely on Hsieh's shoulders.

    ¶3.  (SBU) Although TSU has nominated its own Secretary General and
    Kaohsiung elected Legislator Lo Chi-ming to run in the mayoral
    election, Lo repeatedly has called on the DPP to work together with
    TSU to jointly nominate a pan-green candidate in order to avoid

    SIPDIS
    splitting green votes.  The DPP has never responded to Lo's pleas,
    although local DPP officials have made it clear to AIT/K that a
    split in votes between TSU and DPP could easily cost them the
    election in the current climate of low morale among DPP supporters.

    ¶4. (SBU) Many other pan-green opinion leaders in Kaohsiung,
    including DPP Kaohsiung Chapter Chairman Chao Wen-nan and DPP
    Legislator Guan Bi-ling, have been urging the DPP Central Office to
    cancel the primary and recruit Yeh Chu-lan to run in the mayoral
    race, maintaining that Yeh is the only DPP candidate who can win the
    Kaohsiung mayoral election.  On April 25, nine Bureau Directors of
    Kaohsiung City Government joined together to attempt to convince
    Acting Mayor Yeh Chu-lan to run for mayor.  DPP Legislator Guan
    Bi-ling has pledged to withdraw her election bid if Yeh agrees to
    run.  Legislator Lo Chi-ming also urged DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun to
    consider recruiting Vice Premier Tsai Ing-wen to run for Kaohsiung
    Mayor since neither Yeh nor Tsai is associated with DPP factions or
    the KRTC scandal (reftels A, B, C).

    Who's Who in Possible DPP Candidates
    ------------------------------------

    ¶5.  (SBU) Incumbent Legislator Guan Bi-ling has been competing
    vigorously against the former Chairperson of Taiwan's Council of
    Labor Affairs Chen Chu for the DPP's candidacy.  As former Premier
    Hsieh Chang-ting's protg, a Guan Bi-ling candidacy is interpreted
    locally as a predictor that Hsieh is strong enough to make a run for
    the 2008 presidential election.  A Chen Chu candidacy, on the other
    hand, is seen as a predictor of the strength of current Premier Su
    Tseng-chang to capture the DPP's 2008 presidential candidacy.  The

    SIPDIS
    fierce competition between the two has caused local DPP officials to
    worry that the primary itself will deeply split DPP supporters'

    TAIPEI 00001461  002 OF 004

    former solidarity.

    ¶6.  (SBU) In order to avoid a potential split caused by the primary,
    some local DPP officials and members have suggested the DPP Central
    Office recruit the Kaohsiung Acting Mayor Yeh Chu-lan to run because
    she has no affiliation with any DPP faction and her performance as
    Kaohsiung Acting Mayor has been widely-praised.  Yeh has declined
    the suggestion after a discussion with President Chen Shui-bian.

    ¶7.  (SBU) Former acting Kaohsiung mayor Chen Chi-mai reportedly has
    cancelled his election plan after his father, Chen Che-nan, was
    detained for fraud charges two weeks ago.  According to a former
    mayoral assistant, Chen Chi-mai is helping his father with the legal
    cases piling up against him and has no plans to run for any elected
    offices in the foreseeable future.  General Kaohsiung sentiment is
    that the Chen Che-nan corruption scandal has ruined his son's
    formerly bright political career by destroying public trust in the
    entire Chen family.

    Who's Who on the KMT Side
    -------------------------

    ¶8. (U)  Encouraged by the KMT's strong Southern performance in the
    December "3 in 1 elections" (ref D) and by Acting Mayor Yeh
    Chu-lan's continued insistence she will not run, ten candidates have
    registered for the KMT primary.  They are:

    a. Chen Shei-saint - former Taipei City Legislator

    b. Chiu Yi - incumbent Kaohsiung City Legislator

    c. Huang Chao-shun - incumbent Legislator-at-large

    d. Huang Chun-ying - former Kaohsiung City Vice Mayor and KMT's 2002
    mayoral candidate

    e. Lai Feng-wei - former Penghu County Magistrate

    f. Huang Chi-chuan - former Kaohsiung City Council Speaker

    g. Lee Chuan-chiao -incumbent Tainan County Legislator

    h. Lee Fu-hsing - incumbent Legislator (Kaohsiung City elected)

    i. Lo Shih-hsiung - incumbent Kaohsiung City Legislator

    j. Su Ying-kuei - former Kaohsiung City Legislator

    ¶9. (SBU) This is first time the KMT has had so many registered
    candidates in a Kaohsiung City mayoral race.  A Kaohsiung KMT party
    official told AIT/K this shows the KMT has a very good chance to win
    in the upcoming election and that the DPP is perceived already to be
    on the defensive.  Nevertheless, the KMT official admitted the main
    task to winning this election is achieving successful post-primary
    support by contenders for the selected KMT candidate.  One KMT
    candidate's assistant told AIT/K that despite the plethora of
    candidates, they have all promised not to attack each other during
    the primary.  To date, the local media has been devoid of any
    infighting among the KMT.  Interestingly, KMT party officials are
    worried that all the "harmony" that is keeping candidates out of the
    press will affect their  name recognition in Kaohsiung households
    and their popularity in comparative polls, thus skewing the primary
    and resulting in an inappropriate candidate.

    ¶10. (SBU) Local political observers in Kaohsiung and Tainan have
    repeatedly urged AIT/K not to be fooled by claims of dominant
    pan-green support in Kaohsiung City.  They pointed out that although
    former Kaohsiung mayor Frank Hsieh's administration scored an 80
    percent approval rating in 2002, when the last mayoral election was
    held, Hsieh won his reelection by only 20,000 votes.  Although
    Kaohsiung City is sometimes labeled in the media as a Pan-green
    stronghold in southern Taiwan, the slim margin of Hsieh's win in
    2002, they argue, indicates  that the Pan-green Camp's strength in
    Kaohsiung City is weaker than described.

    What the Polls Say
    ------------------

    ¶11.  (U) In a current United Daily News poll, the KMT Huang
    Chun-ying (KMT) has the highest support among all the interested
    candidates (DPP, KMT, and TSU), leading DPP's Chen Chu and Yeh
    Chu-lan by 14 percent. For pan-green supporters, Chen Chu (DPP)
    leads among the DPP's candidates with Yeh Chu-lan following as a

    TAIPEI 00001461  003 OF 004

    close second.  Among pan-blue supporters, Huang Chun-ying leads by
    18 percent, Huang Chao-shun is second with 13 percent support and
    Chiu Yi comes in third with 12 percent.  The remaining potential KMT
    candidates registered levels of support ranging from 9 percent to
    below 5 percent.

    ¶12. (SBU) According to a China Times poll dated April 14, former
    deputy mayor Huang Chun-ying was identified by pan-blue supporters
    as the most ideal mayoral candidate, followed by Legislator Huang
    Chao-shun (8 percent), former legislator Chen Shei-Saint (8 percent)
    and Chiu Yi (7 percent).  Former CLA chairperson Chen Chu was judged
    by pan-green supporters as the DPP's most ideal mayoral candidate,
    followed by former acting mayor Chen Chi-mai (12 percent),
    Legislator Guan Bi-ling (11 percent) and TSU Legislator Lo Chi-ming
    (4 percent).  The same polling also indicated that Chen Chu leads
    all candidates regardless of party in terms of popularity.  She
    received 11 percent support of all those polled, followed by Huang
    Chun-ying, (9 percent) and Chen Chi-mai (6 percent).  This poll did
    not include Yeh Chu-lan.  The poll was conducted on April 12 with
    829 respondents.  The margin of error is 3.5 percent.

    Former Mayoral Assistant Weighs In on the Turmoil
    --------------------------------------------- ----

    ¶13. (SBU) AIT/K recently discussed the upcoming December Kaohsiung
    mayoral elections with Zhan Yuan-xiang, a 2005 AIT/K International
    Visitor grantee.  Zhan previously served as an investigative
    reporter for Next Magazine before working as special assistant to
    former Kaohsiung acting mayor Chen Chi-mai.  Zhan currently works as
    the media liaison for Kaohsiung County Council and serves as a
    consultant for Attorney Lien Li-chien, who is seeking the DPP
    nomination for Kaohsiung City Council.

    ¶14. (SBU) Zhan predicted to AIT/K that the DPP would lose the
    Kaohsiung mayoral election if it ran former CLA Chairperson Chen Chu
    as its candidate.  According to Zhan, local labor unions and social
    groups do not support Chen Chu even though she once served as a
    director of the city's social affairs bureau and labor affairs
    bureau several years ago.  Zhan noted that no union or social group
    leaders will support her election bid because of their displeasure
    with the government policy on the importation of foreign laborers
    that was put into place during her tenure as the Council of Labor
    Affairs chairperson.

    ¶15. (SBU) Zhan also indicated that Chen Chu, who is a New Tide
    Faction member, is not supported by other DPP factions.  Zhan
    pointed out that since the DPP is built on a coalition of factions,
    factional interest trumps overall party interests.  According to
    Zhan, DPP factions in Kaohsiung are controlled by former premier
    Frank Hsieh and former deputy presidential office secretary-general
    Chen Che-nan.  Zhan noted that since both were forced to resign from
    their positions because of the KRTC scandal, they might ask their
    faction members and supporters to stay home on election day if Chen
    Chu becomes the DPP candidate.  Chen Chu has been blamed for
    triggering the entire KRTC scandal by hinting during a TV interview
    that Chen Che-nan was the key figure in brokering the importation of
    Thai laborers.  The KRTC scandal is viewed as the opening of a
    Pandora's box, which unveiled a series of DPP corruption scandals
    that led to the DPP's poor showing in the December "3-in-1"
    elections.

    ¶16. (SBU) Zhan noted that given Chen Chu's prestigious status in the
    DPP, Acting Mayor Yeh Chu-lan will never consider running in the
    primary.  Like others, Zhan sees that the only possibility for Yeh
    to take the DPP mayoral candidacy is through recruitment, which will
    require a great deal of negotiation among factions and the
    abandonment of party's primary process.  Zhan predicted that Chen
    Chu will win the DPP primary, if there is one.  Local DPP members
    and supporters, as well as party officials, have expressed concern
    that Chen Chu's role in the KRTC scandal will make her an easy
    target for KMT attacks.  KMT officials were not reluctant to state
    that they will attack DPP corruption relentlessly in this mayoral
    campaign.  When learning that President Chen Shui-bian may pick Chen
    Chu as the DPP Kaohsiung mayoral candidate in an attempt to balance
    power among DPP factions, Zhan told AIT/K that many local elected
    officials said President Chen is making a big mistake.

    ¶17. (SBU) Zhan predicted that former vice mayor Huang Chun-ying will
    be nominated as the KMT mayoral candidate because of his popularity,
    academic prestige and four year administrative experience as vice
    mayor.  Zhan said that Huang is well-respected and a perfect
    candidate for the KMT to restore itself to the mayoral seat in
    Kaohsiung.

    TAIPEI 00001461  004 OF 004

    Comment
    -------

    ¶18.  (SBU) The ongoing factional splits and low morale of DPP
    supporters has led to a crisis, which poses a major obstacle to the
    DPP's ability to defend what it has touted as its biggest stronghold
    in southern Taiwan.  The DPP administration, plagued by
    Kaohsiung-specific corruption scandals, is nervous about its
    prospects in the Kaohsiung mayoral race.  The DPP fears that the
    election will become another media free-for-all that will cost it
    not only the mayoral seat, but also bolster predictions that it will
    lose to the KMT in the 2008 presidential election if it loses the
    Kaohsiung mayoral election.

    THIELE

    YOUNG

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