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### Viewing cable 06TAIPEI910, CROSS-STRAIT TRADE INTEGRATION UNBALANCED

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06TAIPEI910 | 2006-03-20 07:30 | 2011-08-23 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | American Institute Taiwan, Taipei

`

    VZCZCXRO4537
    RR RUEHCN
    DE RUEHIN #0910/01 0790730
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 200730Z MAR 06
    FM AIT TAIPEI
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9187
    INFO RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 4911
    RUESLE/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 8505
    RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6106
    RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 9116
    RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 5068
    RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 1122

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000910

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    DEPT PASS TO USTR
    DEPT FOR EAP/ TC
    USTR FOR TIM WINELAND

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ETRD ECON CH TW
    SUBJECT: CROSS-STRAIT TRADE INTEGRATION UNBALANCED

    Summary
    -------

    ¶1. (SBU) Taiwan's economic prosperity increasingly depends on trade
    with the PRC.  Growth in cross-Strait trade in 2005 outpaced growth
    in Taiwan's total trade.  Trade with the PRC accounted for 19
    percent of Taiwan's global trade up from 18 percent in 2004.  In
    addition, the PRC overtook the United States in September as
    Taiwan's second largest source of imports.  Taiwan manufacturers
    with factories in the Mainland as well as those who have stayed on
    the island depend on cross-Strait supply chains for production
    inputs.  The PRC consumer market is also increasingly important to
    Taiwan firms.  However, even as Taiwan grows more dependent on the
    PRC economy, trade data suggest that the reverse is not true.
    Cross-Strait trade accounts for only 6.4 percent of the PRC's global
    trade and its share continues to decline.  This unbalanced economic
    integration is one of the forces driving efforts in Taiwan to
    tighten cross-Strait economic restrictions under the slogan of
    "active management" as well as interest in a free trade agreement
    with the United States.  End summary.

    Cross-Strait Trade Outpacing Taiwan's Global Trade
    --------------------------------------------- -----

    ¶2. (U) Even though Taiwan's trade with the PRC grew more slowly than
    in 2004, it continued to outpace Taiwan's global trade performance
    in 2005.  Taiwan's total trade with the PRC grew 16 percent last
    year to US$ 71.7 billion, while Taiwan's total trade rose more
    modestly by 8.5 percent.  Cross-Strait trade growth in 2005 was
    lower than 2004's 33 percent growth.  However, along with Taiwan'
    overall trade, it accelerated toward the end of 2005 with 20 percent
    year-on-year growth in December.

    ¶3. (U) The PRC was Taiwan's most important trading partner for the
    third year in a row, increasing its share of Taiwan's total trade to
    19 percent in 2005 from 18 percent the previous year.  In
    comparison, Japan accounted for 16 percent of Taiwan's total trade
    in 2005, and the United States accounted for 13 percent.

    ¶4. (U) Taiwan's trade surplus with the PRC continued to grow in
    2005, rising to US$ 31.84 billion.  This marked 12.6 percent growth
    over Taiwan's US$ 28.28 billion trade surplus with the PRC in 2004.
    The PRC was Taiwan's largest export market for the fourth year
    running.  Taiwan exported goods worth US$ 51.8 billion to the PRC,
    accounting for 27.2 percent of Taiwan's total exports.  The United
    States, Taiwan's second largest export market, accounted for 15
    percent.

    PRC Overtakes U.S. in Exports to Taiwan
    ---------------------------------------

    ¶5. (U) In 2005, the PRC was Taiwan's third largest source of
    imports.  Taiwan bought US$ 19.9 billion worth of imports from the
    PRC, up 19.5 percent from 2004.  The PRC accounted for 11 percent of
    Taiwan's total imports compared to Japan's 25.3 percent and the
    United States' 11.6 percent.  However, imports from the PRC
    surpassed those from the United States starting in September, 2005.
    By December, the PRC's share of Taiwan imports had increased to 12.3
    percent, US$185.9 million more than imports from the United States.
    In 2006, the PRC will likely be Taiwan's second largest source of
    imports.  Imports from the PRC have grown steadily despite Taiwan's
    restrictions on the importation of numerous PRC goods, especially
    agricultural products.

    Closely Integrated Supply Chains
    --------------------------------

    ¶6. (U) Most of the goods traded across the Strait in both directions
    are manufacturing inputs.  Taiwan's exports to the PRC are mainly
    processed for re-export to other markets, especially the United
    States, Japan and Europe.  Machinery, electrical equipment, and
    optoelectronics constituted nearly 60 percent of Taiwan's total
    exports to the PRC in 2005.  Most of Taiwan's imports from the PRC
    also consist of production inputs.  Machinery, electrical equipment,
    and optoelectronics made up 55 percent of Taiwan's total PRC imports
    in 2005.  These imported components are usually assembled together
    with parts made in Taiwan.  The statistics show that cross-Strait
    supply chains are closely integrated.  Manufacturers on each side
    take advantage of local strengths.  The PRC has cheap labor and

    TAIPEI 00000910  002 OF 002

    land; while Taiwan has advanced technology, abundant capital and
    stronger intellectual property protection.

    Consumer Goods Increasingly Important
    -------------------------------------

    ¶7. (U) A growing demand from Chinese consumers for products made by
    Taiwan firms is expected to drive strong growth in Taiwan's exports
    in 2006 and provide a boost to Taiwan's economy as a whole.  Most
    Taiwan firms with factories in the PRC are export-oriented, but a
    growing number of them have begun to focus on the local market.
    According to Taiwan's Bureau of Foreign Trade, many Taiwan firms in
    the PRC export their products to Hong Kong and Macao and then
    re-import them back into the PRC local market.  This allows the
    firms to maintain the status of an export producer and continue to
    import production inputs duty-free.  The PRC authorities classify
    these shipments as "imports from China," which was the fourth
    largest source of imports into the PRC in 2005.  Growth in "China's
    Imports from China" was 42 percent in 2005, much higher than the
    PRC's 17.6 percent growth in total imports.

    ¶9. (U) Imports of cheap, labor-intensive consumer goods from the PRC
    into Taiwan have also increased.  Many local industries feel
    threatened by these imports.  Recently, Taiwan initiated safeguard
    and anti-dumping investigations at the request local towel makers.

    PRC Less Reliant on Taiwan
    --------------------------

    ¶8. (U) China is a very important part of Taiwan's trade picture, but
    Taiwan is a relatively small player in the PRC's overall trade
    picture.  In 2005, Taiwan was the PRC's fifth largest trading
    partner, accounting for 6.4 percent of its global trade.  PRC
    exports to Taiwan in 2005 accounted for just 2.2 percent its global
    exports.  Moreover, the PRC's trade with Taiwan is not growing as
    fast as its global trade.  According to PRC trade data, which differ
    slightly from Taiwan's, cross-Strait trade grew by 16.5 percent
    compared to 23.2 percent growth in the PRC's global trade.  As a
    result, Taiwan's share of the PRC's total trade is declining.

    Comment - One-Way Integration
    -----------------------------

    ¶9. (SBU) Cross-Strait trade data for 2005 show Taiwan's increasing
    reliance on the PRC for economic growth.  The PRC consolidated its
    position as Taiwan' most important trade partner in 2005.  Local
    Taiwan manufacturers depend on Taiwan factories in the Mainland to
    drive their export growth and increasingly depend on imports from
    the PRC for components.  Even Taiwan's firms in the PRC are more
    dependent on the local PRC market.  On the other side of the Strait,
    Taiwan's relatively small and declining share of the PRC's global
    trade indicate that the PRC is becoming less dependent on trade with
    Taiwan.  This unbalanced economic integration has increased the
    perception among some in Taiwan that close cross-Strait economic
    relations are a threat to Taiwan.  It is one of the forces driving
    efforts to tighten cross-Strait economic restrictions under the
    slogan of "active management" as well as the Taiwan government's
    interest in diversifying its economy through a free trade agreement
    with the United States.  End comment.

    YOUNG

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