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### Viewing cable 07AITTAIPEI954, MEDIA REACTION: TAIWAN'S DEVELOPMENT OF OFFENSIVE WEAPONS,

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07AITTAIPEI954 | 2007-04-30 22:29 | 2011-08-23 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | American Institute Taiwan, Taipei

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHIN #0954/01 1202229
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 302229Z APR 07
    FM AIT TAIPEI
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5062
    INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6695
    RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 7943

` `

    UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000954

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - LLOYD NEIGHBORS
    DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
    SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: TAIWAN'S DEVELOPMENT OF OFFENSIVE WEAPONS,
    IRAQ, OLYMPIC TORCH RELAY ISSUE

    ¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused news
    coverage from April 28-30 on the Taiwan authority's decision to
    reject China's proposed route for the 2008 Olympic torch relay; on
    the 3rd KMT-Communist Party of China forum held in Beijing on
    Sunday; and on the year-end legislative elections and the 2008
    presidential election.  The pro-status quo "China Times" front-paged
    a banner headline April 30 that read "Mainland [China] Upgrades
    Sovereignty Level; Trouble Arises Regarding Taiwan's [Policy] to
    Allow Chinese Tourists to Visit."

    ¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an op-ed in the
    mass-circulation "Apple Daily" discussed the United States' attitude
    toward Taiwan's development of offensive weapons.  The article said
    Washington is more concerned about the long-range ballistic missiles
    Taiwan is currently developing than the Hsiungfeng-2E cruise
    missiles that Taiwan has developed.  An analysis in the
    pro-unification "United Daily News" said the United States' move to
    wait until the last moment to prevent Taiwan from deploying the
    Hsiungfeng-2E cruise missiles is a typical double-faced strategy
    based on its own interests.  With regard to Iraq, an editorial in
    the limited-circulation, conservative, pro-unification "China Post"
    commented on the U.S. Congress's decision last week to ask the Bush
    administration to begin pulling out U.S. troops from Iraq.  The
    article said "The Oct. 1, 2007 deadline means that the end is near,
    for Bush's war as well as for Bush himself."  In terms of Olympic
    torch relay issue, an editorial in the pro-independence "Liberty
    Times" said as a result of China's plan to belittle Taiwan, the
    island needs to be prepared not to participate in the 2008 Beijing
    Olympic Games.  An editorial in the pro-independence,
    English-language "Taipei Times" also said it is difficult to see how
    a compromise can be reached over the Olympic torch relay issue
    without either side backing down.  A "China Times" editorial,
    however, urged Taiwan not to be absent from the Olympic Games.  A
    separate editorial in the English-language "China Post" also chimed
    in by saying Taiwan's threat not to have its athletes participate in
    the Olympic Games is a foolish and dangerous proposition.  End
    summary.

    ¶3. Taiwan's Development of Offensive Weapons

    A) "Mystery behind [Taiwan's] Revelation of Its Offensive Weapons"

    Mei Fu-hsing, director of the Taiwan Strait Security Research and
    Analysis Center, opined in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily"
    [circulation: 520,000] (4/30):

    "Regarding Taiwan's development of so-called 'offensive weapons,'
    the United States' fundamental attitude is that 'it will not
    proactively interfere as long as the weapons are not nuclear or
    biochemical.'  This is because the U.S. military is also aware that
    Taiwan must be equipped with certain capabilities to attack specific
    ground targets of the People's Liberation Army, so that it can lift
    a siege [laid by the PLA] in the event of a cross-Strait conflict.
    ...  But the United States' 'turning a blind eye' is built on the
    tacit agreement that [Taiwan] can 'only do it without saying it.'
    The Bush administration, which is already troubled by problems in
    the Mideast and North Korea and is thus in desperate need of China's
    cooperation, is getting increasingly annoyed by Taiwan politicians,
    whose occasional remarks about attacking mainland China with the
    island's self-produced missiles have triggered a reaction from
    Beijing and thus created unnecessary trouble for the United States'
    global strategic operations.

    "The first time that Washington picked on Taiwan regarding this
    issue was in August 2006, when the Bush administration decided to
    disapprove tentatively a proposal by Taiwan's military to purchase
    F-16 C/D fighter jets.  It was generally believed that Washington's
    decision not to sell the new fighter jets to Taiwan was a result of
    Taiwan's failure to pass the arms procurement budget as of then,
    which had been stalled for three years.  But in reality, the U.S.
    authorities' other major concern was that it was hoping to use the
    disapproval to put pressure on Taiwan over the island's development
    of counterattack weapons.  The United States' goals are:  First, it
    wanted Taiwan's leaders to exercise restraint in terms of their
    words and deeds, and second, it wanted to force Taiwan to abandon
    its development of some sensitive counterattack weapons. ...
    Sources said that the United States is more concerned about the
    long-range ballistic missiles that Taiwan is still striving to
    develop than the Hsiungfeng-2E cruise missiles that Taiwan has
    already successfully developed.  In this context, the ballistic
    missiles will most likely become the target that Washington wants to
    persuade Taiwan to abandon. ..."

    B) "In Calling for a Halt when [the Missiles] Are about to be
    Deployed, the United States Is Using a Double-Faced Strategy"

    Journalist Lu Teh-yun noted in an analysis in the pro-unification
    "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (4/30):

    IRAQ, OLYMPIC TORCH RELAY ISSUE

    "The U.S. National Security Council and the State Department plan to
    impose pressure to halt Taiwan's development and deployment of
    missiles that are capable of attacking mainland China.  The plan by
    Taiwan's Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology to develop
    Hsiungfeng-2E cruise missiles has been going on for over six years.
    How is it possible that the United States was not aware of it?  But
    the United States' decision to wait until the last moment to
    interrupt the plan was in reality a move made based on its own
    interests.

    "The United States believes that, based on previous lessons it has
    learned, the Taiwan authorities, when dealing with the issue of
    unification and independence and cross-Strait disputes, tend to use
    words and deeds to provoke Beijing; Taiwan's pushing toward the
    outer limit [that Washington] can tolerate has got on the United
    States' nerves.  Washington can never stop worrying in the face of
    the Taiwan authorities' calls for referenda, writing a new
    constitution, and [calling for] one country on each side of the
    Taiwan Strait

    "What Washington cares about is that Taiwan has constantly tried to
    drag the United States into the [cross-Strait] quagmire, and that it
    intends to raise cross-Strait conflicts to the level of
    confrontation between Washington and Beijing.  The United States
    believes that all Taiwan needs are defensive weapons that can help
    the island resist attacks from Beijing, and that the island might
    hit [China's] strategic locations or points once it is in possession
    of offensive weapons.  This explains why the United States has been
    monitoring every move of Taiwan, including its development of
    offensive weapons and whether it has obtained nuclear weapons. ...

    "The Hsiungfeng-2E cruise missiles developed by the Chung-Shan
    Institute of Science and Technology have a capability similar to
    that of the United States' Tomahawk missiles.  The development of
    such missiles has been going on for six years, but the United States
    purposely overlooked it during this period of time.  The fact that
    Washington waited until the critical moment when Taiwan is about to
    produce and deploy these missiles to stop the island is a typical
    two-pronged strategy.

    "History showed that the United States has previously stopped Taiwan
    from developing Tien Ma mid-range ballistic missiles and atomic
    bombs, and it also waited until these projects were about to
    succeed.  In addition to its desire to dictate the regional
    strategic balance, Washington also intended to use Taiwan's
    developing capabilities as a bargaining chip to restrain Beijing.
    By demanding that Taiwan abandon its offensive weapons, Washington
    can ask Beijing to show some goodwill gestures.  It can also drop a
    hint to Beijing that if the latter insists on threatening
    cross-Strait peace, the United States does not need to launch
    Tomahawk missiles; it can simply let go and let Taiwan do whatever
    it pleases."

    ¶4. Iraq

    "Checks and Balances"

    The conservative, pro-unification "China Post" [circulation: 30,000]
    editorialized (4/30):

    "It is all but certain that President Bush will lose the war in
    Iraq, now that the Democrat-controlled Congress is determined to
    call it quits.  A time table has been set for U.S. troops to pull
    out, contrary to the president's request for a surge. The U.S.
    Congress is working effectively to check Bush's power. ...  The
    timetable is certain to doom President Bush's high-stakes gambles in
    Iraq.  He succeeded only in taking out Saddam Hussein, but he will
    not be remembered as a victor.  His dream for Iraq oil, which he had
    thought would pay for Iraq's post-war reconstruction, has turned
    into a nightmare.  A democratic Iraq is now the killing fields of
    sectarian war. ...

    "What can be expected is that President Bush will keep fighting,
    with his veto, against what a Republican senator called a surrender
    in Iraq.  The Oct. 1, 2007 deadline means that the end is near, for
    Bush's war as well as for Bush himself.  The days are numbered, so
    are the days of suffering and bloodshed.  The U.S. Congress should
    get credit for doing its job well.  Democracy works only when there
    are effective checks and balances.  This week we have seen how
    democracy is working in the United States and why democracy is the
    worst political system except all others that have been experimented
    with from time to time, as so aptly described by Sir Winston
    Churchill."

    ¶5. Olympic Torch Relay Issue

    A) "Taiwan Needs to Be Prepared Not to Participate in Beijing's
    IRAQ, OLYMPIC TORCH RELAY ISSUE

    Olympic Games"

    The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 500,000]
    editorialized (4/28):

    "... Using the proposed [Olympic] torch route to belittle Taiwan is
    just the latest move in China's application of united-front tactics
    toward Taiwan in the [run-up to] Olympic Games.  China's intention
    is evident:  [Beijing's] arrangement for the torch to take a turn in
    the north and bypass Taiwan to arrive in Vietnam, and then to go
    from Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh City to Taipei and to Hong Kong, Macau,
    and other inland cities of China was aimed at making Taipei the
    'first stop of [China's] domestic route.'  Also, its calling Taiwan
    'China, Taipei' will also help reinforce the false image in the
    international community that Taiwan is a province of China. ..."

    B) "Good Riddance to the Olympic Torch"

    The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation:
    30,000] editorialized (4/28):

    "The disingenuousness of the International Olympic Committee (IOC)
    is breathtaking.  To allow China to host an Olympics at all should
    have been warning enough; for IOC officials to now feign surprise at
    Taiwan's unhappiness with its proposed torch route suggests that
    there are still many feeble words and actions to come from them in
    the months to come. ...  The presence of the torch was always going
    to be 'political'; the real question was how the politics was going
    to be employed and whether an understanding was ever possible
    between Taipei and Beijing. ...  It is difficult to see how a
    compromise can be reached without either side backing down, and
    neither side will be inclined to do so. ..."

    C) Aborted [Olympic] Torch Relay [to Taiwan] Is a Small Matter, but
    [Taiwan's] Absence from the Olympic Games Will Be a Huge Issue"

    The pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000]
    editorialized (4/28):

    "... It has been forty years since the Olympic torch last entered
    Taiwan.  It will not be such a big loss for the island if the torch
    does not come to Taiwan this time.  But what is really worth noting
    is whether Taiwan will decide not even to participate in the 2008
    Olympic Games in Beijing.  Chances are that this could really
    happen, given the DPP government's manipulative approach in raising
    the [level of] confrontation between the two sides of the Taiwan
    Strait. ... Perhaps there is little chance of making any change
    regarding the torch relay issue, but one must not allow political
    manipulation to sabotage [the island's] participation in the Olympic
    Games. ..."

    D) "Torch Furor Getting Carried Away"

    The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post"
    [circulation: 30,000] editorialized (4/29):

    "... We support the principle of avoiding activities that diminish
    the status of our government and bolster Beijing's illegitimate
    claim of sovereignty over Taiwan.  However, we strongly disagree
    with the way that President Chen Shui-bian and Premier Su
    Tseng-chang have distorted the Olympic torch relay route issue and

    SIPDIS
    turned it into an international controversy. ...  If President Chan
    and his supporters did not want the Olympic torch to pass through
    Taiwan on its way to mainland China, we would have preferred to hear
    them simply say so.  But warning the international community that
    Taiwan's athletes might not participate in the Olympic Games is a
    foolish and even dangerous proposition that could end up causing
    tremendous harm to us. ..."

    YOUNG

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