Cable Viewer

Currently released so far... 25416 / 251,287

### Articles

Brazil Sri Lanka United Kingdom Sweden 00. Editorial United States Latin America Egypt Jordan Yemen Thailand

### Browse latest releases

2010/11 2010/12 2011/01 2011/02 2011/03 2011/04 2011/05 2011/06 2011/07 2011/08
2010/11/28 2010/11/29 2010/11/30
2010/12/01 2010/12/02 2010/12/03 2010/12/04 2010/12/05 2010/12/06 2010/12/07 2010/12/08 2010/12/09 2010/12/10 2010/12/11 2010/12/12 2010/12/13 2010/12/14 2010/12/15 2010/12/16 2010/12/17 2010/12/18 2010/12/19 2010/12/20 2010/12/21 2010/12/22 2010/12/23 2010/12/24 2010/12/25 2010/12/26 2010/12/27 2010/12/28 2010/12/29 2010/12/30
2011/01/01 2011/01/02 2011/01/04 2011/01/05 2011/01/07 2011/01/09 2011/01/11 2011/01/12 2011/01/13 2011/01/14 2011/01/15 2011/01/16 2011/01/17 2011/01/18 2011/01/19 2011/01/20 2011/01/21 2011/01/22 2011/01/23 2011/01/24 2011/01/25 2011/01/26 2011/01/27 2011/01/28 2011/01/29 2011/01/30 2011/01/31
2011/02/01 2011/02/02 2011/02/03 2011/02/04 2011/02/05 2011/02/06 2011/02/07 2011/02/08 2011/02/09 2011/02/10 2011/02/11 2011/02/12 2011/02/13 2011/02/14 2011/02/15 2011/02/16 2011/02/17 2011/02/18 2011/02/19 2011/02/20 2011/02/21 2011/02/22 2011/02/23 2011/02/24 2011/02/25 2011/02/26 2011/02/27 2011/02/28
2011/03/01 2011/03/02 2011/03/03 2011/03/04 2011/03/05 2011/03/06 2011/03/07 2011/03/08 2011/03/09 2011/03/10 2011/03/11 2011/03/13 2011/03/14 2011/03/15 2011/03/16 2011/03/17 2011/03/18 2011/03/19 2011/03/20 2011/03/21 2011/03/22 2011/03/23 2011/03/24 2011/03/25 2011/03/26 2011/03/27 2011/03/28 2011/03/29 2011/03/30 2011/03/31
2011/04/01 2011/04/02 2011/04/03 2011/04/04 2011/04/05 2011/04/06 2011/04/07 2011/04/08 2011/04/09 2011/04/10 2011/04/11 2011/04/12 2011/04/13 2011/04/14 2011/04/15 2011/04/16 2011/04/17 2011/04/18 2011/04/19 2011/04/20 2011/04/21 2011/04/22 2011/04/23 2011/04/24 2011/04/25 2011/04/26 2011/04/27 2011/04/28 2011/04/29 2011/04/30
2011/05/01 2011/05/02 2011/05/03 2011/05/04 2011/05/05 2011/05/06 2011/05/07 2011/05/08 2011/05/09 2011/05/10 2011/05/11 2011/05/12 2011/05/13 2011/05/14 2011/05/15 2011/05/16 2011/05/17 2011/05/18 2011/05/19 2011/05/20 2011/05/21 2011/05/22 2011/05/23 2011/05/24 2011/05/25 2011/05/26 2011/05/27 2011/05/28 2011/05/29 2011/05/30 2011/05/31
2011/06/01 2011/06/02 2011/06/03 2011/06/04 2011/06/05 2011/06/06 2011/06/07 2011/06/08 2011/06/09 2011/06/10 2011/06/11 2011/06/12 2011/06/13 2011/06/14 2011/06/15 2011/06/16 2011/06/17 2011/06/18 2011/06/19 2011/06/20 2011/06/21 2011/06/22 2011/06/23 2011/06/24 2011/06/25 2011/06/26 2011/06/27 2011/06/28 2011/06/29 2011/06/30
2011/07/01 2011/07/02 2011/07/04 2011/07/05 2011/07/06 2011/07/07 2011/07/08 2011/07/10 2011/07/11 2011/07/12 2011/07/13 2011/07/14 2011/07/15 2011/07/16 2011/07/17 2011/07/18 2011/07/19 2011/07/20 2011/07/21 2011/07/22 2011/07/23 2011/07/25 2011/07/27 2011/07/28 2011/07/29 2011/07/31
2011/08/01 2011/08/02 2011/08/03 2011/08/05 2011/08/06 2011/08/07 2011/08/08 2011/08/09 2011/08/10 2011/08/11 2011/08/12 2011/08/13 2011/08/15 2011/08/16 2011/08/17 2011/08/18 2011/08/19 2011/08/21 2011/08/22 2011/08/23

### Browse by creation date

66 72 73 75 79 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
1966/12
1972/02 1972/08
1973/04
1975/03
1979/08
1985/03 1985/05 1985/06
1986/05 1986/08 1986/12
1987/06
1988/01 1988/03 1988/04 1988/07 1988/08 1988/09 1988/12
1989/01 1989/06 1989/12
1990/01 1990/07 1990/08 1990/10
1991/05 1991/06 1991/07 1991/11
1992/01 1992/03 1992/06 1992/09 1992/11 1992/12
1993/01 1993/02 1993/04 1993/10 1993/12
1994/05 1994/11 1994/12
1995/01 1995/04 1995/06 1995/11
1996/07 1996/08 1996/09 1996/11
1997/02 1997/03 1997/05 1997/06 1997/08 1997/10 1997/11 1997/12
1998/05 1998/12
1999/01 1999/09 1999/12
2000/04 2000/05 2000/06 2000/09 2000/11 2000/12
2001/02 2001/03 2001/04 2001/05 2001/06 2001/07 2001/09 2001/10 2001/11 2001/12
2002/01 2002/02 2002/03 2002/04 2002/06 2002/07 2002/08 2002/09 2002/11 2002/12
2003/01 2003/02 2003/03 2003/04 2003/05 2003/06 2003/07 2003/08 2003/09 2003/10 2003/11 2003/12
2004/01 2004/02 2004/03 2004/04 2004/05 2004/06 2004/07 2004/08 2004/09 2004/10 2004/11 2004/12
2005/01 2005/02 2005/03 2005/04 2005/05 2005/06 2005/07 2005/08 2005/09 2005/10 2005/11 2005/12
2006/01 2006/02 2006/03 2006/04 2006/05 2006/06 2006/07 2006/08 2006/09 2006/10 2006/11 2006/12
2007/01 2007/02 2007/03 2007/04 2007/05 2007/06 2007/07 2007/08 2007/09 2007/10 2007/11 2007/12
2008/01 2008/02 2008/03 2008/04 2008/05 2008/06 2008/07 2008/08 2008/09 2008/10 2008/11 2008/12
2009/01 2009/02 2009/03 2009/04 2009/05 2009/06 2009/07 2009/08 2009/09 2009/10 2009/11 2009/12
2010/01 2010/02

### Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z
Embassy Athens Embassy Asuncion Embassy Astana Embassy Asmara Embassy Ashgabat Embassy Apia Embassy Ankara Embassy Amman Embassy Algiers Embassy Addis Ababa Embassy Accra Embassy Abuja Embassy Abu Dhabi Embassy Abidjan Consulate Auckland Consulate Amsterdam Consulate Alexandria Consulate Adana American Institute Taiwan, Taipei
Embassy Bujumbura Embassy Buenos Aires Embassy Budapest Embassy Bucharest Embassy Brussels Embassy Bridgetown Embassy Bratislava Embassy Brasilia Embassy Bogota Embassy Bishkek Embassy Bern Embassy Berlin Embassy Belmopan Embassy Belgrade Embassy Beirut Embassy Beijing Embassy Banjul Embassy Bangkok Embassy Bandar Seri Begawan Embassy Bamako Embassy Baku Embassy Baghdad Consulate Belfast Consulate Barcelona
Embassy Copenhagen Embassy Conakry Embassy Colombo Embassy Chisinau Embassy Caracas Embassy Canberra Embassy Cairo Consulate Curacao Consulate Ciudad Juarez Consulate Chiang Mai Consulate Chennai Consulate Chengdu Consulate Casablanca Consulate Cape Town Consulate Calgary
Embassy Dushanbe Embassy Dublin Embassy Doha Embassy Djibouti Embassy Dili Embassy Dhaka Embassy Dar Es Salaam Embassy Damascus Embassy Dakar Consulate Dubai Consulate Dhahran
Embassy Freetown Consulate Fukuoka
Embassy Guatemala Embassy Gaborone Consulate Guayaquil Consulate Guangzhou Consulate Guadalajara
Embassy Helsinki Embassy Harare Embassy Hanoi Consulate Hong Kong Consulate Ho Chi Minh City Consulate Hermosillo Consulate Hamilton Consulate Hamburg Consulate Halifax
Iran RPO Dubai Embassy Islamabad Consulate Izmir Consulate Istanbul
Embassy Jakarta Consulate Jerusalem Consulate Jeddah
Embassy Kyiv Embassy Kuwait Embassy Kuala Lumpur Embassy Kinshasa Embassy Kingston Embassy Kigali Embassy Khartoum Embassy Kathmandu Embassy Kampala Embassy Kabul Consulate Kolkata Consulate Karachi
Embassy Luxembourg Embassy Luanda Embassy London Embassy Ljubljana Embassy Lisbon Embassy Lima Embassy Lilongwe Embassy Libreville Embassy La Paz Consulate Lahore Consulate Lagos
Mission USOSCE Mission USNATO Mission UNESCO Mission Geneva Embassy Muscat Embassy Moscow Embassy Montevideo Embassy Monrovia Embassy Minsk Embassy Mexico Embassy Mbabane Embassy Maseru Embassy Maputo Embassy Manila Embassy Manama Embassy Managua Embassy Malabo Embassy Madrid Consulate Munich Consulate Mumbai Consulate Montreal Consulate Monterrey Consulate Milan Consulate Melbourne Consulate Matamoros
Embassy Nouakchott Embassy Nicosia Embassy Niamey Embassy New Delhi Embassy Ndjamena Embassy Nassau Embassy Nairobi Consulate Nuevo Laredo Consulate Naples Consulate Naha Consulate Nagoya
Embassy Ouagadougou Embassy Ottawa Embassy Oslo
Embassy Pristina Embassy Pretoria Embassy Prague Embassy Port Of Spain Embassy Port Louis Embassy Port Au Prince Embassy Phnom Penh Embassy Paris Embassy Paramaribo Embassy Panama Consulate Peshawar
Embassy Quito Consulate Quebec
REO Basrah Embassy Rome Embassy Riyadh Embassy Riga Embassy Reykjavik Embassy Rangoon Embassy Rabat Consulate Rio De Janeiro Consulate Recife
Secretary of State Embassy Suva Embassy Stockholm Embassy Sofia Embassy Skopje Embassy Singapore Embassy Seoul Embassy Sarajevo Embassy Santo Domingo Embassy Santiago Embassy Sanaa Embassy San Salvador Embassy San Jose Consulate Strasbourg Consulate St Petersburg Consulate Shenyang Consulate Shanghai Consulate Sapporo Consulate Sao Paulo
Embassy Tunis Embassy Tripoli Embassy Tokyo Embassy The Hague Embassy Tel Aviv Embassy Tehran Embassy Tegucigalpa Embassy Tbilisi Embassy Tashkent Embassy Tallinn Consulate Toronto Consulate Tijuana Consulate Thessaloniki
USUN New York USEU Brussels US Office Almaty US Mission Geneva US Interests Section Havana US Delegation, Secretary UNVIE UN Rome Embassy Ulaanbaatar
Embassy Vilnius Embassy Vientiane Embassy Vienna Embassy Vatican Embassy Valletta Consulate Vladivostok Consulate Vancouver
Embassy Windhoek Embassy Wellington Embassy Warsaw
Embassy Yerevan Embassy Yaounde
Embassy Zagreb

### Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
ASEC AEMR AMGT AR APECO AU AORC AJ AF AFIN AS AM ABLD AFFAIRS AMB APER AA AE ADM ACOA AID ASEAN AMED AORG APEC AY AL AGOA ATRN AG ALOW AND ADB ABUD ASPA ADPM ADANA AFSI ARABL ADCO AFSN ACABQ AO ANARCHISTS AZ ANET AMEDCASCKFLO AADP AGRICULTURE AINT ARR ARF AINF APRC AFSA AX AINR AODE APCS AROC AGAO ASUP AIT ARCH AEMRASECCASCKFLOMARRPRELPINRAMGTJMXL AMEX ARM AQ ATFN AMBASSADOR ARAS ACBAQ AC AOPR AREP ASIG ASEX ASCE AER AGR AVERY ASCH AEMRS AFU AMG ATPDEA ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG AORL AN AGMT ACS AMCHAMS AECL AUC AFGHANISTAN ACAO
BR BB BG BEXP BY BA BRUSSELS BU BD BK BL BE BMGT BO BTIO BX BC BH BM BN BAIO BUSH BRPA BILAT BF BOEHNER BOL BIDEN BP BURNS BBG BBSR BT BWC BEXPC BTIU
CPAS CA CASC CS CBW CIDA CO CODEL CI CROS CU CH CWC CMGT CVIS CDG CG CF CHIEF CJAN CBSA CE CY CB CW CM CHR CD CT CTERR CVR CDC CN CONS CR CAMBODIA CACS COUNTRY CFIS CONDOLEEZZA CEN CZ CLEARANCE CARICOM COM CICTE CYPRUS CITES CV CBE CMGMT COE CIVS CFED COUNTER CAPC COPUOS CARSON CTR CKGR CLINTON COUNTERTERRORISM CITEL CQ CSW CIC CITT CARIB CAFTA CACM CDB CJUS CTM CAN CAJC CONSULAR CLMT CBC CIA CNARC CIS CEUDA CHINA CAC CL
DR DJ DB DA DHS DAO DCM DO DEFENSE DK DOMESTIC DISENGAGEMENT DAC DOD DCG DE DOT DPRK DEPT DEA DOE DTRA DS DEAX
ECON ETTC EFIS ETRD EC EMIN EAGR EAID EFIN EUN ECIN EG EWWT EINV ENRG ELAB EPET EN EAIR EUMEM ECPS ES ELTN EIND EZ EU EI ER ET EINT ENGR ECONOMIC ENIV EFTA ESTH EET EUREM ENV EAG EAP ECONOMY ELECTIONS ETRO ECIP EPEC EXIM ERNG ENERG ED EREL ELAM EK EDEV ENGY ETRDEC ECCT EPA ENGRD ECLAC ETRAD ENVR ELTNSNAR ELAP ETRC EPIT EDUC EFI EEB EETC EIVN ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS ETRDGK ENVI EXTERNAL ELN EAIDS ECOSOC EDU EPREL EINVEFIN EAGER ECA ETMIN EIDN EINVKSCA EFINECONCS ETC EINN EXBS ECONOMICS EIAR EINDETRD ECONEFIN EURN ETRDEINVTINTCS EFIM EINVETC ECONCS EDRC ENRD EBRD ETRA ESA EAIG EUR EUC ERD ETRN EINVECONSENVCSJA EEPET EUNCH ESENV ENNP ECINECONCS ETRDECONWTOCS ECUN
FR FI FOREIGN FAO FARM FARC FAS FJ FREEDOM FINANCE FBI FTAA FM FCS FAA FTA FK FT FAC FDA FINR FOR FOI FO FMLN FISO
GM GERARD GT GA GG GR GTIP GE GH GY GB GJ GLOBAL GEORGE GCC GC GV GAZA GL GOV GOI GF GTMO GANGS GAERC GZ GUILLERMO GASPAR
HR HA HYMPSK HO HK HUMAN HU HN HHS HUD HUMANR HSTC HURI HILLARY HI HUM HEBRON HUMOR
IZ IN IAEA IS IMO ILO IR IC IT ITU IV IMF IBRD IWC IPR IDB ID IRAQI ISRAELI ITALY ITPGOV ITALIAN IADB ICAO ICRC INR ICJ ICCAT IFAD IO ITRA INL IAHRC IRAQ INMARSAT INRA INTELSAT INTERNAL ILC IRS INDO IIP IND IEFIN IQ ISCON ICTY IA INTERPOL IEA INRB ISRAEL IZPREL IRAJ IF ITPHUM IL IACI IDA ISLAMISTS IGAD ITF INRO IBET IDP ICTR IRC
JA JO JM JP JOHN JUS JN JAMES JOSEPH JOHNNIE JML JIMENEZ
KMDR KPAO KOMC KNNP KFLO KDEM KSUM KIPR KFLU KE KCRM KJUS KAWC KZ KSCA KDRG KCOR KGHG KPAL KTIP KMCA KCRS KPKO KOLY KRVC KVPR KG KWBG KTER KS KN KSPR KWMN KV KTFN KFRD KSTH KISL KGIC KSEP KFIN KTEX KTIA KUNR KCMR KMOC KCIP KTDB KBIO KSAF KU KHIV KNNNP KSTC KNUP KIRF KIRC KNUC KHLS KTDD KMPI KIDE KMFO KSEO KJUST KPIR KIVP KICC KCFE KSCS KGLB KPWR KCUL KPOP KPALAOIS KR KTTB KCOM KESS KWN KCSY KREL KTBT KRFD KFLOA KPOL KIND KBCT KSKN KOCI KHUM KPRP KREC KICCPUR KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KGIT KMCC KPRV KAUST KPAS KPAOPREL KIRP KLAB KHSA KPAONZ KICA KCRIM KHDP KNAR KSAC KCRCM KINR KGHA KIIP KPAOY KTRD KTAO KWAC KACT KSCI KNPP KMRS KNNPMNUC KBTS KERG KLTN KTLA KNDP KO KAWK KVRP KPOA KVIR KENV KAID KX KRCM KFSC KCFC KNEI KCHG KPLS KFTFN KTFM KLIG KDEMAF KRIM KRAD KBTR KGCC KPA KSEC KPIN KDEV KWWMN KOM KWNM KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KRGY KIFR KWMNCS KFPC KPAK KOMS KDDG KCGC KPAI KID KMIG KNSD KWMM
LY LE LABOR LH LAB LTTE LT LO LI LU LA LVPR LG LR LOG
MARR MX MASS MOPS MNUC MCAP MTCRE MRCRE MTRE MASC MY MK MCC MO MAS MG MC MCA MZ MI MIL MU MR MT MTCR ML MN MURRAY MEPP MP MINUSTAH MA MD MAR MAPP MOPPS MTS MLS MILI MEPN MEPI MEETINGS MERCOSUR MW MIK MAPS MV MILITARY MARAD MDC MACEDONIA MASSMNUC MUCN MEDIA MQADHAFI MPOS MPS
NZ NATO NI NO NU NG NL NPT NS NSF NP NA NANCY NRR NATIONAL NASA NC NDP NIH NIPP NK NSSP NEGROPONTE NGO NAS NE NATOIRAQ NR NAR NZUS NARC NCCC NH NSG NAFTA NEW NT NUIN NOVO NATOPREL NEA NSC NV NPA NSFO NW NORAD NPG NOAA
OPRC OTRA OECD OVIP OREP ODC OIIP OPDC OAS OSCE OPIC OMS OEXC OPCW OIE OSCI OFDP OPAD ODPC OCEA ODIP OMIG OM OFFICIALS OEXP OPEC OVIPPRELUNGANU OSHA OSIC OHUM OTR OSAC OBSP OFDA OVP ON OCII OES OCS OIC
PGOV PREL PARM PINR PHUM PM PREF PTER PK PINS PBIO PHSA PE PBTS PA PL POL PAK POV POLITICS POLICY PKO PNAT PELOSI PP PRE PUNE PALESTINIAN PAS PO PROV PH PLAB PCI PERM PETR PRELBR PETERS PROP PBS POLITICAL PMIL PJUS PG PREZ PGIC PAO PRELPK PGOVENRG PATTY PGOVEAIDUKNOSWGMHUCANLLHFRSPITNZ PAIGH PROG PMAR PU PTE PDOV PGOVSOCI PY PETER PGOR PBTSRU PRAM PARMS PINL PSI PPA PTERE PREO PERL PGOF PINO PRGOV PORG PS PGVO PKFK PSOE PEPR PDEM PINT PRELP PREFA PNG PTBS PFOR PGOVLO PHUMBA POLINT PGOVE PHALANAGE PARTY PECON PLN PHUH PEDRO PF PHUS PARTIES PCUL PGGV PSA PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PGIV PHUMPREL POGOV PEL PBT PINF PRL PSEPC POSTS PAHO PHUMPGOV PGOC PNR
QA QI
RS RP RU RW RFE RCMP RIGHTSPOLMIL RO ROBERT RM ROOD RICE REGION RGY RELFREE RELAM RSP RF RELATIONS RIGHTS RUPREL REMON RPEL REACTION REPORT RSO
SZ SENV SOCI SNAR SO SP SU SY SI SMIG SYR SA SCUL SW SR SYRIA SNARM SPECIALIST SG SF SENS SEN SENVEAGREAIDTBIOECONSOCIXR SN SC SECRETARY SNA ST SK SL SANC SMIL SCRM SENVSXE SE SAARC STEINBERG SCRS SWE SARS SENVQGR SNARIZ SUDAN SAN SM SIPDIS SFNV SSA SPCVIS SOFA SENVKGHG SHI SEVN SHUM SH SNARCS SPCE SNARN SIPRS
TW TRGY TBIO TSPA TU TPHY TI TX TH TIP TSPL TNGD TS TRSY TC TINT TZ TN TT TR TA TIO TF TK TRAD TNDG TWI TD TWL TERRORISM TL TV TP THPY TO TURKEY TSPAM TREL TRT TFIN TAGS TWCH TBID
UK UNSC UNGA UN US UZ USEU UG UP UNAUS UNMIK USTR UY UNSCR UNRCR UNESCO USAID UNHRC USAU UNICEF UV USPS UNFICYP UNDP UNCITRAL UNHCR UNCSD UNEP USCC UNMIC UNTAC USUN USDA UNCHR UR UNCTAD USGS UNFPA USOAS USNC UA UE UNVIE UAE UNO UNODC UNCHS UNDESCO UNC UNPUOS UNDC UNCHC UNFCYP UNIDROIT UNCND
VM VE VT VZ VEPREL VN VTEG VOA VTIZ VTPREL VISIT VENZ VAT VC VI
WHTI WIPO WTRO WTO WHO WEET WCL WFP WS WHA WA WZ WI WMD WBG WILLIAM WWARD WITH WTRQ WCO WEU WMO WB
XA XX XK XL XM XS XF XR XY XG XT XI XE XW XC XH XD XU XV XB XZ XQ XTAG
YI YM YE YL YMCS
ZU ZI ZOELLICK ZP ZR ZK ZA ZO ZF ZL ZB ZN ZH ZT ZJ ZEALAND ZANU

### Browse by classification

CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN SECRET SECRET//NOFORN UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

### Community resources

Follow us on Twitter Check our Reddit Twitter this Digg this page Contact us on IRC

courage is contagious

### Viewing cable 07GUANGZHOU1272, Fujian Cross-Strait Scholars Predict Referendum Passage and

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs
Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:

- The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
- The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
- The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.

To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.
Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #07GUANGZHOU1272.

Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07GUANGZHOU1272 | 2007-12-07 07:43 | 2011-08-23 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Guangzhou

`

    VZCZCXRO6040
    RR RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
    DE RUEHGZ #1272/01 3410743
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 070743Z DEC 07
    FM AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6722
    INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUANGZHOU 001272

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR EAP/CM AND EAP/TC

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PREL PGOV TW CH
    SUBJECT: Fujian Cross-Strait Scholars Predict Referendum Passage and
    Strong PRC Reaction

    (U) THIS DOCUMENT IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  IT SHOULD NOT BE
    DISSEMINATED OUTSIDE U.S. GOVERNMENT CHANNELS OR IN ANY PUBLIC FORUM
    WITHOUT THE WRITTEN CONCURRENCE OF THE ORIGINATOR.  IT SHOULD NOT BE
    POSTED ON THE INTERNET.

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The referendum on Taiwan joining the UN is likely
    to pass with possible serious consequences, according to
    cross-Strait scholars in Fujian's Xiamen and Fuzhou cities.  They
    are concerned about actions Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian will
    take in the remaining months of his term and called on the U.S.
    government to keep him in check by not supporting any provocative
    actions.  TheQnvariably predicted a close presidential election;
    regardless of the outcome, however, they were, forQe most Qt,
    pessimistic about its implications for cross-Strait relations,
    especially whether either Ma Ying-jeou or Frank Hsieh would be able
    to move forward even on economic measures like the three links that
    could well benefit both sides.  End summary.

    Predicting Referendum Passage and...
    ------------------------------------

    ¶2. (SBU) Scholars at Fujian's top cross-Strait research institutions
    agreed in meetings with Emboff and Congenoff in late November that
    the referendum on Taiwan joining the UN under the name of "Taiwan"
    was likely to pass.  Wu Nengyuan, Director of the Institute of
    Modern Taiwan Studies (IMTS) at the Fujian Academy of Social
    Sciences, told us November 27 that it was almost certain that the UN
    referendum would pass after the "one-step" voting system was
    approved.  He argued that most Taiwan voters would not be
    sophisticated enough to understand the referendum's implications for
    cross-Strait relations and the likelihood that Beijing would
    interpret passage as an act of "de jure independence."  On November
    29, Liu Guoshen, Director of the Taiwan Research Institute (TRI) of
    Xiamen University and one of the scholars most often consulted by
    Beijing for analysis of Taiwan intentions, commented that neither
    Beijing nor Washington could prevent the UN referendum from going
    forward.

    ...a Strong PRC Reaction
    ------------------------

    ¶3. (SBU) Liu also speculated that passage of the referendum could
    result in a strong PRC reaction, pointing to a State Council
    statement that passage of the UN referendum would be an act of "de
    jure independence."  Liu said that whether or not passage would
    result in a military conflict depended on the Chinese leadership's
    ability to resist pressure from the Chinese public.  In response to
    a question on whether Beijing had already decided that the
    referendum's passage would meet the conditions for "non peaceful
    means" in the 2005 anti-secession law, Liu said that Beijing has not
    explicitly made this linkage, partly because it did not want to give
    Chen Shui-bian decision-making power over Beijing's actions.

    Warnings on Chen Surprises
    --------------------------

    ¶4. (SBU) The greatest danger lies in the Democratic Progressive
    Party's (DPP) perception that Beijing will not take military action,
    according to Liu.  He fears that Chen Shui-bian will try to garner
    deep Green support by provoking Beijing, possibly by creating an
    incident near the middle line of the Taiwan Strait.  He suggested a
    military clash between the two sides was possible in the spring.

    ¶5. (SBU) Continuing with "worst" case scenarios, several of our
    interlocutors speculated that Chen Shui-bian would attempt various
    political maneuvers over the next several months to help the DPP or
    even stay in power beyond the election.  The conflict in Taiwan over
    the DPP's one-step voting procedure and possible KMT defiance
    provides an opportunity for Chen to make such an attempt. Li Peng,
    Assistant Director of Xiamen's TRI, beliQs that Chen really wants
    to impose martial law, a threat he had made and then withdrew in the
    days before the Qember 30 meeting.  Qever, Li acknowledged that
    political conditions within Taiwan would probably prevent such an
    act and the United States government would not accept it.  Chen
    might try other non-democratic means, however, like calling up the
    military to prevent them from voting as he did in 2004.  IMTS's Wu
    said he would not be surprised if Chen imposed martial law next
    year.

    Call for Strong U.S. Involvement
    --------------------------------

    ¶6. (SBU) Scholars were also united in their call for the U.S
    government to continue to play an active role in keeping possible
    provocation by Taiwan in check.  TRI's Liu noted that the U.S.

    GUANGZHOU 00001272  002 OF 002

    government's public opposition to the UN referendum had made Beijing
    more confident and allowed it to lower the tone of its rhetoric on
    cross-Strait issues.  The U.S. government should let the DPP know
    the "danger of playing with fire," he said.  Wu called on the United
    States to send a clearer message to Taiwan.  He argued that weapons
    sales give the Taiwan people the wrong impression of the U.S. role
    in the Strait.

    A Close Presidential Election
    -----------------------------

    ¶7. (SBU) Although they are confident that the Kuomintang (KMT) will
    win a majority of seats in January's Legislative Yuan election,
    scholars were unwilling to predict a winner in March's presidential
    election.  Wu expects the KMT to win 60-70 seats.  Zhang Wenshang,
    head of TRI's political section, offered a similar prediction: 65-70
    for the KMT and 35-40 for the DPP.

    ¶8. (SBU) However, on the presidential election, TRI's Liu would only
    say that, even though the KMT's Ma Ying-jeou leads in polls by 15
    percentage points, the DPP's Frank Hsieh had a better chance than
    Ma, particularly because the DPP is very good at campaigning.  Wu
    said the key would be voter turnout, noting that the DPP is good at
    mobilizing voters and Green supporters generally have a higher
    turnout rate.

    Implications Unclear
    --------------------

    ¶9. (SBU) The scholars differed on the likely impact of a Ma or Hsieh
    victory on cross-Strait relations.  Wu was the more pessimistic,
    predicting that even if Ma wins, it is not clear that he will be
    able to implement the three direct links.  He argued that the DPP
    will create obstacles for Ma.  In addition, Wu is not convinced of
    Ma's commitment to improving relations with Beijing, pointing outQis demands that the PRC recognize the Republic of China, give
    Taiwan mQ international space, and withdraw its mQiles aimed at
    Taiwan.  Liu, on the other hand, expects that Ma will be able to
    push through three direct links.  He also said cross-Strait
    communication would become easier in large part thanks to groundwork
    laid by former Chairman Lien Chan and other senior KMT officials.

    ¶10. (SBU) Hsieh faces the risk of opposition from both the light
    Green and deep Green factions of the DPP, according to Wu.  Because
    Hsieh lacks control of the party, Wu believes he will find it very
    difficult to push through three direct links and further economic
    opening in the face of opposition from pro-independence
    fundamentalists.  If Hsieh's victory is narrow, Wu predicted that he
    would find it difficult to resist Chen Shui-bian's influence.
    Furthermore, Wu speculated that if Hsieh follows a similar path to
    Chen it will lead to more severe tension in the Strait especially in
    the lead-up to the 2012 presidential election.  Liu agreed that
    Hsieh would face many obstacles to implementing three direct links.
    He also commented that Beijing lacked confidence in Hsieh and would
    be unwilling to help his administration and strengthen the DPP.

    Taishang Participation Not Decisive
    -----------------------------------

    ¶11. (SBU) Wu told us that Taiwan investors in the mainland are
    unlikely to be much of a factor in the election. He predicted that
    few would return to Taiwan to vote because of the inconvenience of
    indirect cross-Strait flights.  He also believes that Green
    supporters are more likely to make the effort to return, diminishing
    the KMT's electoral advantage among Taiwan investors.  Wu speculated
    that KMT voters would account for 50-60 percent of Taiwan investors
    who return too vote.  The president of Xiamen's Taiwan Business
    Association estimated that of a population of 70,000 Taiwan
    residents in Xiamen, about a third lean green, a third lean Blue and
    the rest are neutral.  He guessed that of 800 members of his
    association, only 300 would likely return to Taiwan to vote.

    GOLDBERG

`