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### Viewing cable 06MANAGUA2061, MEETING WITH ARCHBISHOP BRENES

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06MANAGUA2061 | 2006-09-19 19:43 | 2011-06-01 08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Managua

Appears in these articles:
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758456.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758467.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758468.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-30/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2758464.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4103/la-embusa-y-el-gabinete-de-ortega
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4104/d-rsquo-escoto-en-onu-ldquo-un-desafio-de-ortega-a-ee-uu-rdquo
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4102/estrada-y-la-ldquo-doble-cara-rdquo-ante-ee-uu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3966/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-ee-uu-en-el-2006
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2758764.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-23/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2758753.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4041/millones-de-dolares-sin-control-y-a-discrecion
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4040/la-ldquo-injerencia-rdquo-de-venezuela-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/4047/rodrigo-barreto-enviado-de-ldquo-vacaciones-rdquo
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotasSecundarias/Mundo2757239.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/NotaPrincipal/Mundo2746658.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2757244.aspx
http://www.nacion.com/2011-05-16/Mundo/Relacionados/Mundo2746673.aspx
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3991/dra-yadira-centeno-desmiente-cable-diplomatico-eeuu
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3968/pellas-pronostico-a-eeuu-victoria-de-ortega-en-2006
http://www.confidencial.com.ni/articulo/3967/barreto-era-ldquo-fuente-confiable-rdquo-para-eeuu

`

    VZCZCXYZ0000
    PP RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHMU #2061/01 2621943
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 191943Z SEP 06
    FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7613
    INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 0769
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002061

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2026
    TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL
    SUBJECT: MEETING WITH ARCHBISHOP BRENES

    Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D)

    ¶1.  (C) Summary:  Archbishop Leopoldo Brenes recently told
    visiting WHA/CEN director and emboffs that better
    organization and a clearer message appear to be giving
    Daniel Ortega's Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN)
    an edge in the race.  He believes that Edmundo Jarquin and
    Eduardo Montealegre face stiff challenges associated with
    their more limited organizational capacities.  Brenes noted
    that while polls are unreliable, the division of the
    center-right, plus a solid base of about 31-34%, give
    Ortega a chance of winning in the first round.  Brenes, who
    has instructed Church officials to remain above the fray of
    partisan politics, seeks to place the Catholic Church in a
    neutral position, although he personally appears to favor
    Montealegre.  Complicating the Church's efforts to remain
    neutral is the FSLN's advertising its connections to the
    Church in departments run by FSLN mayors.  Brenes noted
    that he supports international and domestic election
    observer missions, noting that the Church would like to
    field 1,500 of its own observers if it finds the funds to
    do so.  End Summary.

    Brenes:  Superior Tactics Give Ortega an Edge
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶2.  (C) Archbishop Leopoldo Brenes discussed his views on
    the elections, the strengths and weaknesses of the
    campaigns, and the role of the Catholic Church in the
    election process during a meeting on 12 September with
    visiting WHA/CEN Director John Feeley, WHA Nicaragua Desk
    Officer Gregory Schiffer, and Polcouns.  Brenes kicked off
    the meeting characterizing the election race as a new
    experience for the country given the intense competition
    among the four strongest campaigns.  He noted that overall
    Ortega's FSLN appears to be the most organized party thanks
    in part to its discliplined supporters, considerable
    political machinery, and savvy campaign strategy.  Brenes
    also attributed some of the FSLN success to the party's
    having given their campaign a personal touch through
    supporters' efforts to go door-to-door in Nicaragua's 17
    departments.  He added that campaign members are constantly
    active and have dedicated their weekends to travelling
    around the country.

    ¶3.  (C) Brenes saw both Jarquin and Montealegre as
    struggling.  He assessed that the MRS was stronger under
    Herty Lewites, noting that Jarquin lacks his predecessor's
    notable charisma.  When Feeley pointed out that local polls
    suggest that Jarquin appears to have sustained much of the
    party's support, Brenes responded that Jarquin may have
    managed to retain much of the support Lewites had
    accumulated, but that he will be challenged to expand his
    base.  While many people knew of Lewites's accomplishments
    as mayor of Managua, Brenes pointed out that most people
    view Jarquin as an outsider given that he has spent so much
    time away from Nicaragua.  (Comment: Jarquin's position in
    favor of the use of therapeutic abortion as per current
    Nicaraguan law and the fact that Jarquin divorced and
    remarried
    may partially explain Brenes' negative assessment of
    him. End comment.).  Brenes said, however, that Jarquin's
    running mate,
    Carlos Mejia Godoy, is an asset.  Mejia Godoy's
    iconic image has had a positive impact on the campaign in
    that he provides name recognition as well as a solid
    reputation.  The Archbishop added that people respect the
    prospective vice president not for his music but also his
    simple lifestyle -- he does not appear wealthy and comes
    across as down-to-earth.  Brenes characterized Montealegre
    as facing an uphill battle as a young, relatively
    inexperienced, candidate leading a new party.  On the
    positive side, Brenes noted that Montealegre's image of
    leading a healthy family life may resonate with some
    voters.

    "The Best Poll Will be On 5 November"
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶4.  (C)   Feeley sounded out the Archbishop's assessment of
    how Ortega would fare in the elections when local polls
    have consistently indicated that 60% of the population
    reject him.  Brenes replied that the FSLN could indeed pull
    off a win given that the party maintains a solid base of
    between 31-34%.  Brenes commented that the polls can be
    unreliable and that November 5 will provide the most
    accurate assessment of whom Nicaraguans favor.

    Aleman and Ortega Addicted to Power
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶5.  (C) Brenes likened Ortega and Aleman to drug or alcohol
    addicts, saying that they are hooked on obtaining as much
    personal power as possible.  Continuing with the metaphor,
    Brenes said that the two caudillos react the same way as
    other addicts when the subject of their dependency is taken
    away -- they attempt to seize more of it.  When confronted
    by disenchanted party members, Ortega and Aleman strengthen
    their grips and lash out at those who seek to limit their
    authority.  Brenes noted that despite PLC attempts to play
    down the fact, Aleman continues at the helm of the PLC and the
    party lacks strong leaders capable of forcing him out.

    Urging Church to Remain Above the Fray
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

    ¶6.  (C) Brenes wants the Church to be seen as a neutral
    entity but recognizes that the competitive political
    environment challenges this objective.  Brenes said he had
    recently told La Prensa (one of the leading dailies) that
    neither bishiops nor local priests should demonstrate their
    partisan leanings.  To demonstrate the Church's apolitical
    stance, Brenes related that he will preside over a mass
    celebrating the political process and all the parties on
    the Thursday before the election (29 October).  The Church
    will host the traditional mass celebrating the victor of
    the election only after the CSE issues the final results.
    Brenes said he has instructed the country's bishops to
    follow suit to avoid the image of the church favoring a
    particular candidate.  Nevertheless, Brenes admitted that
    the FSLN is likely to continue professing close ties to the
    church.  He noted that FSLN-controlled municipalities had
    donated a great deal to local parishes, eliciting the
    sympathies of many local priests.  (Comment:  Ortega
    himself has orchestrated several well-publicized
    appearances with former Archbishop Miguel Obando y Bravo in
    an effort to tout his ties to the Church.)

    ¶7.  (C) While Brenes attempted to avoid the perception of
    favoring a particular party, he does not necessarily mean
    to renounce political involvement altogether.  When queried
    about his stance on observers, Brenes replied that
    observers -- as long as they are independent -- would be an
    asset as they would help to ensure the credibility of the
    process.  He added that the church planned to field 1,500
    of their own observers.  He noted that these people will be
    uncompensated volunteers, except for hats which they will
    be issued for identification purposes.

    ¶8.  (C) Comment:  Brenes's determination to keep the Church
    from supporting any one candidate will hold at the national
    level, but his efforts to encourage the same of regional
    Church officials are unlikely to be sufficient.  Further,
    Obando y Bravo continues his open support for Ortega, while
    the Vatican looks the other way.  Nor is Ortega limiting
    his religious outreach efforts to the Catholic Church.  He
    recently attended a meeting of over 500 figures from the
    evangelical movement during which he garnered praise for
    taking an anti-abortion stance and signed an accord
    promisiong his opposition to abortion -- even though his
    National Assembly deputies have openly endorsed maintaining
    therapeutic abortion in accordance with Nicaragua's current
    criminal code.

    ¶9.  (U) Atmospherics:  Brenes was a gracious host.  He was
    softspoken and informal -- wearing his trademark blue jeans
    under his official robes.
    TRIVELLI

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