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### Viewing cable 06AITTAIPEI761, MEDIA REACTION: U.S. AND CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06AITTAIPEI761 | 2006-03-09 08:16 | 2011-08-23 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | American Institute Taiwan, Taipei

`

    VZCZCXYZ0021
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHIN #0761/01 0680816
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 090816Z MAR 06
    FM AIT TAIPEI
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8975
    INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 4829
    RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 6026

` `

    UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000761

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC
    BARBORIAK
    DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
    SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S. AND CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS

    ¶1. Summary: As Taiwan'smajor Chinese-language dailies
    centered their reporting March 9 on the government's
    management of state-run property, Taiwan's foreign
    relations, and other local issues, coverage also focused on
    the aftermath of President Chen Shui-bian's announcement of
    the cessation of the National Unification Council (NUC) and
    National Unification Guidelines (NUG).  The pro-independence
    "Liberty Times," Taiwan's biggest daily, ran a news story on
    its page two that quoted TECRO Chief David Lee as saying
    Taiwan and the United States will soon reach a consensus
    over the NUC and NUG matter.  The pro-independence "Taiwan
    Daily" ran a banner headline on its front page that read:
    "[Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard] Armitage
    Says the Cessation of the NUC and NUG Will Not Affect Cross-
    Strait Relations."  The sub-headline added: "Former U.S.
    Deputy Secretary of State Visits Taiwan and Says Beijing's
    Reaction [Toward the NUC and NUG Matter] Is Within
    Expectations.  Supports Taiwan's Push for a New Constitution
    As Long As It Is in Line with [the Island's] Public
    Opinion."  The "Liberty Times" and "Taiwan Daily" ran in
    their inside pages an opinion survey released by Taiwan's
    Straits Exchange Foundation that reported: 33.1 percent of
    those polled said they support Taiwan independence; 26.9
    percent say they support maintaining the status quo; and
    21.8 percent say they support unification with China.

    ¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a "Liberty
    Times" editorial reflected on the cross-Strait crisis in
    1996 and called on the government to pass the U.S. arms
    procurement package as early as possible.  A "Taiwan Daily"
    editorial urged Washington to pay attention to Taiwan's
    mainstream public opinion, saying that the cessation of the
    NUC and NUG is a road that Taiwan must follow.  An editorial
    in the limited-circulation, pro-independence, English-
    language "Taipei Times" strongly criticized Washington
    officials, saying that so along as they try to analyze
    Taiwan through the lens of what best serves the U.S.
    interests, their understanding of Taiwan will be wrong.  Lo
    Chih-cheng, executive director of the Institute for National
    Policy Research, also opined in the "Taipei Times" that with
    the conclusion of the NUC matter, "Taiwan has won the right
    to interpret the `status quo' and to interpret what
    constitutes a change to the `status quo.'"  Washington
    correspondent Norman Fu, writing for the pro-status-quo
    "China Times," described the Chen administration's current
    mood as "waiting for the other shoe to drop." End summary.

    A) "China Test-fired Missiles at Taiwan Ten Years Ago; What
    About Taiwan in the Future?"

    The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 600,000]
    editorialized (3/9):

    ". Over the past ten years, China's national defense budget
    has increased at a two-digit rate; it now ranks the third
    highest in the world, next to that of the United States, and
    Russia.  Even the world's superpower, the United States, is
    very concerned that China's non-peaceful rise will seriously
    threaten the world's peace and stability.  In the face of
    China's military threat, Taiwan should pass the [U.S.] arms
    procurement package as early as possible so that Taiwan has
    the capabilities to safeguard the island's national security
    and protect the lives and property of the Taiwan people, as
    well as its democratic system.  It is a pity, however, that
    the opposition parties are blocking the arms procurement
    bill and they do not recognize Taiwan as an independent
    sovereign state. They refuse [to accept] the island's
    elected government and seek to block every proposal made by
    the government; it seems they are standing by China's side
    and have no concern for the Taiwan people.  Judged from all
    these [signals], it seems that even though it has been a
    decade since the cross-Strait crisis of 1996, the latent
    crisis in the Taiwan Strait has only become more serious.
    The 23 million people of Taiwan ., as a result, should unite
    together to be prepared for possible future perils and
    threats.  All the more, [we] should strengthen Taiwan's
    security and do our best to develop [Taiwan's] economy."

    B) "The United States Should Pay Attention to Taiwan's
    Public Opinion That Loves Peace and Opposes Aggression;  It
    Should Attach Great Importance to China's Intention to Use
    Force to Annex Taiwan and Its Aggressiveness"

    The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" [circulation: 100,000]
    wrote in an editorial (3/9):

    ". It seems that the United States has deliberately used
    some diplomatic maneuvering to spin Taiwan's `cessation of
    the NUC and NUG.'  Even though this development was a result
    of Taiwan's opposition parties' malicious attempts to create
    trouble by [playing with the words] 'cease? abolish?', the
    international community seems to have failed to realize that
    the `cessation of the NUC and NUG' is a road that
    `democratic Taiwan' must follow.  This is because the Taiwan
    people want to protect their homeland from being annexed and
    turned into part of the territory of the `authoritarian
    China.'  When Washington showed its concern [over Taiwan's
    cessation of the NUC and NUG] and when [the Taiwan
    government] designated the `Anti-Aggression Day' as a
    national holiday, we should speak out loud to the
    international community to let the world know Taiwan's
    determination to pursue the universal values of democracy!"

    C) "Is the US Asleep at the Wheel?"

    The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times"
    [circulation: 30,000] editorialized (3/9):

    "US politicians and military officers think that Taiwan
    exists solely for the benefit for - or as a detriment to -
    US-China relations.  This blissfully egocentric attitude has
    been the source of much confusion in cross-strait relations,
    and could lead Washington to make a major miscalculation
    jeopardizing its strategic position in the Western Pacific.
    The problem is that the US has demonstrated it has little
    understanding of the forces that drive domestic politics in
    Taiwan.  Taiwan's relationship with China is merely one part
    of the equation for local politicians, and they do not score
    points by keeping their mouths shut about it. .

    "So long as Washington's officials and think tanks try to
    analyze Taiwan through the lens of what best serves US
    interests, they are going to get it wrong.  At a Senate Arms
    Services Committee hearing on Tuesday, this mentality was on
    full display. .  From the senator's [i.e. Senator John
    Warner] perspective, Chen acted `inappropriately' because
    his decision complicated things for the US.  Taiwan may owe
    a lot to the US, but his certainly doesn't mean that
    Washington can expect to dictate the decisions made by
    Taiwan's elected officials. .

    "Clearly Chen believes that he and his party stand to gain
    from getting tough with China, and the council [i.e. NUC]
    decision was a part of this strategy.  Surely this is not
    beyond the understanding of those in the US Senate. .
    Unfortunately for the large number of officials in the US
    who would rather Taiwan just keep its mouth shut and sit
    dutifully in the corner, every indication is that local
    politicians will continue to shake things up.  So since some
    in Washington appear to need to have the situation spelled
    out kindergarten-style, here it is: Until (at least) the
    presidential election in 2008, expect cross-strait relations
    to be a headache.  There are going to be some bitter
    political battles fought here between the DPP and the
    Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), and much of the fighting
    will be over issues that strike at the heart of Taiwan's
    relationship with China.  That will mean the US will have to
    be very proactive in dealing with Taiwan.  Is it prepared to
    be so?"

    D) "NUC Spat May Herald New Sense of Mission"

    Lo Chih-cheng, executive director of the Institute for
    National Policy Research, opined in the pro-independence,
    English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 30,000] (3/9):

    "President Chen Shui-bian's announcement to `cease' the
    National Unification Council and its guidelines highlighted
    the US' passiveness in promoting cross-strait dialogue. .
    Clearly, Washington is the only one that can push Beijing to
    consider the restart of talks with Taipei.  However,
    although Washington regards itself to be a facilitator to
    cross-strait talks, if it only advises Beijing orally, the
    effectiveness has been proven limited.  From now on,
    Washington will need to take proactive moves to push Beijing
    into a dialogue with Taipei.

    "Chen's announcement has also underlined the necessity for
    the US to review its balancing role on the cross-strait
    issue.  Washington has always defined the `status quo' in
    the Strait as `no independence, no war' - based on the
    principle that no one shall change the `status quo'
    unilaterally.  But its concern over the `independence' part
    of the equation has far outweighed its concern for `no war.'
    .  US tolerance will only allow China to go further, pushing
    Taiwan toward being united by China or even annexed.  If
    Taiwan does not fight back, then the `status quo' is likely
    to drift toward a situation unfavorable to Taiwan.

    "Therefore, since Washington has only had a minimal response
    to Beijing's `no war' pronouncements, Taipei deserves the
    right to draw a red line between itself and Beijing.  . The
    cessation of the unification council and guidelines is
    Taiwan's declaration to the international society: We will
    never tolerate China's irrational threats.  In short, in
    order to secure peace and safety in the Strait, in addition
    to righting the military balance, we need to pursue
    political deterrence.  Taiwan must also strive for the right
    to define and judge the `status quo,' while making its
    bottom line clear and give itself an unassailable position.
    The NUC incident was finally ended by `one cessation, with
    each side making its own interpretation.'  Through this
    action, Taiwan has won the right to interpret the `status
    quo' and to interpret what constitutes a change to the
    `status quo.'  This may well be a turning point."

    E)  "[Chen Shui-bian] Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop"

    Washington correspondent Norman Fu said in the "Washington
    Outlook" column in the pro-status quo "China Times"
    [circulation: 400,000] (3/9):

    ". Since the U.S. State Department dealt a heavy blow to the
    Bian administration last week, the latter has become smarter
    by laying low or even playing deaf and blind and not daring
    to say anything.  But still, [the Bian administration] is
    trying to deceive itself and others by spreading the news
    about how inconsistent various agencies inside the Bush
    administration have been in handling Taiwan's `cessation of
    the NUC and NUG.'  In reality, the U.S. government, ranging
    from the White House to the State Department and to the AIT
    Taipei Office, have been acting uniformly and undisputedly
    [regarding the NUC matter].  The Bian administration spread
    the news out of wishful thinking, mainly because it is
    trying to deceive those Taiwan people who have no clue of
    what's going on. .  [Let's] just hope that when `the other
    shoe drops,' it drops lightly and not heavily and that it
    `knocks Bian out.' ."

    KEEGAN

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