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### Viewing cable 06BEIRUT2665, LEBANON: DEFENSE MINISTER AWAITS CABINET DECISION

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06BEIRUT2665 | 2006-08-16 09:37 | 2011-03-15 18:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Beirut
Appears in these articles: not yet set

`

    VZCZCXRO1582
    OO RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK
    DE RUEHLB #2665/01 2280937
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    O 160937Z AUG 06
    FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5099
    INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0097
    RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0981

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 002665

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR NEA, INR, AND PM;
    NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/SINGH/HARDING

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2016
    TAGS: MOPS PTER PREL LE SY IS
    SUBJECT: LEBANON: DEFENSE MINISTER AWAITS CABINET DECISION
    ON DEPLOYMENT

    REF: A. BEIRUT 2553
         ¶B. BEIRUT 2583

    Classified By: Jeffrey D. Feltman, Ambassador.  Reason 1.4(d).

    SUMMARY
    --------

    ¶1.  (C)  During a downbeat 8/15 meeting with the Ambassador
    and poloff, Lebanese Defense Minister Elias Murr said he
    awaits a Cabinet decision on moving forward with LAF
    deployment to the South, but that his personal opinion is
    that the LAF cannot coexist for long in the South with an
    armed Hizballah.  He argued that the LAF needs to be
    strengthened significantly and as soon as possible in order
    to counter the belief, as voiced by a churlish and
    patronizing Hassan Nasrallah in his 8/14 speech, that the LAF
    isn't capable of defending Lebanon on its own.  Murr said
    that the relatively weak Israeli military performance,
    particularly in the conflict's final days, had bolstered
    Hizballah, which was why the group is now reluctant to give
    up their arms even south of the Litani.  Describing the
    atmosphere in the Cabinet (Note.  As of this time, the
    Cabinet session meant originally for 8/13 has still not taken
    place due to differences over disarmament.  End Note), Murr
    worried that the Sunni leadership -- PM Siniora in particular
    -- are simply too weak-kneed to challenge the Shi'a on the
    disarmament issue now, and this unwillingness to stare down
    Hizballah would leave the materially unprepared LAF stranded
    in a dangerously-combustible situation in the South.  End
    Summary.

    "THE WORST ARMY IN THE WORLD"
    -----------------------------

    ¶2.  (C)  Sitting in his study surrounded by a stunning
    collection of Greek Orthodox icons, Murr informed the
    Ambassador that senior LAF and IDF officers met on 8/14 at
    UNIFIL headquarters in the southern city of Naqoura to
    coordinate the deployment/withdrawal, noting that the
    Israelis behaved "sweetly" and asked if the LAF "could come
    tomorrow."  Murr was amazed that the Israelis had already
    pulled most of their troops out of the South, even though the
    LAF and UNIFIL-plus might still be several days away from
    deploying.  Murr complained that the vacuum left by the
    Israeli "defection on the ground" is being rapidly reclaimed
    by Hizballah.  In addition, what he saw as the relatively
    poor Israeli military performance, especially over the last
    two days of conflict when dozens of Israeli soldiers were
    killed, had left Hizballah in a triumphant and uncompromising
    mood.  "The IDF put us in a difficult situation," complained
    Murr, adding in a typical flourish, "They are the worst army
    in the world."

    ¶3.  (C)  Murr said that Hizballah now believes that since it
    apparently fought the mighty IDF to a standstill on the
    ground, that it is therefore in a position to dictate to the
    Lebanese what terms it would and would not accept.  Whereas
    it appeared only a week ago that Hizballah had seemingly
    agreed to the LAF deployment and the group's disarmament
    south of the Litani, by Sunday 8/13 Hizballah was no longer
    in such a generous mood, forcing the postponement of the
    Cabinet session.  Nasrallah's speech on the evening of Monday
    8/14 only further strengthened this feeling that Hizballah,
    as the putative "victor" in the conflict, no longer needs to
    make concessions.  "Nasrallah thinks of himself as stronger
    than Abdel Nasser and bigger than Asad," Murr exclaimed,
    "Hizballah carries the banner of having beaten Israel.
    Nasrallah will be very aggressive now."

    "NO KNEES"
    ----------

    ¶4.  (C)  Murr admitted that the prospect of deploying the LAF
    into a zone still crawling with armed Hizballahis is not
    ideal and that, if he had his preference, he would not send
    the army to become "a filet" between Hizballah and Israel.
    Murr said that if the decision were to come down to him, he
    would rather resign than deploy into that kind of situation.
    However, he believes the Cabinet will ultimately give the
    final go-ahead for deployment, which he will abide by, though

    BEIRUT 00002665  002 OF 003

    he thinks the question of Hizballah's weapons in the South
    will unfortunately remain unresolved.  Murr said that he had
    pressed the disarmament issue during the Cabinet session on
    Saturday August 12, but that others in the Cabinet had not
    wanted to pursue the matter at that time.  "My recommendation
    blew up the government in the last meeting."  He said that
    Hizballah Minister for Energy and Water Mohammad Fneich had
    replied to a question about arms, "You want our arms that are
    protecting Lebanon from Israel?  Come take them by force."
    (Comment.  As he claims, Murr may indeed have pushed the
    issue during the last Cabinet session.  An editorial by
    Ibrahim Amin, considered a Nasrallah mouthpiece, in the
    August 14 edition of Al-Akhbar newspaper noted that the
    "Minister of Defense said that he was prepared to deploy the
    Army to the South, but there should be no armed presence
    except the army."  End Comment.)

    ¶5.  (C)  Murr hopes that the disarmament issue causes the
    next Cabinet session, whenever it is finally held, to
    "explode."  Unfortunately, he said, the only people prepared
    to go face-to-face against Hizballah in the Cabinet are
    himself and non-Sunni March 14 members Joe Sarkis, Pierre
    Gemayel, Nayla Moawad, and Marwan Hamadeh.  Otherwise, he
    lamented, "the Sunna have no knees and no experience" to go
    against Hizballah.  "Saad (Hariri) should have been tougher
    from the beginning," Murr complained, while PM Siniora had
    asked Murr to be "firm but smooth" about the disarmament
    issue, and to "not cause him any problems."  (Note.  During
    the meeting Murr took a call from PM Siniora, who asked Murr
    to call back once the Ambassador had left.  Inviting the
    Ambassador to stay, Murr called Siniora back after five
    minutes. The Prime Minister wanted to know what the
    Ambassador had said regarding the deployment.  End Note).
    While the Sunni March 14 members want Hizballah to disarm,
    said Murr, they are unwilling to rock the boat for fear of
    exacerbating Sunni-Shi'ite tensions, and will let the
    Christians and Druze take the lead.  Unleashing an arsenal of
    expletives, the Defense Minister complained that, "This is
    the problem with the Sunna, they want to f**k with the d**k
    of others."

    STRENGTHEN THE ARMY
    -------------------

    ¶6.  (C)  Acknowledging that the deployment of the army will
    likely go ahead, but that disarmament of Hizballah in the
    South will likely be put on hold for the time being, Murr
    said that the best option is to strengthen the LAF and the
    UNIFIL-plus force as much and as soon as possible.
    Otherwise, Hizballah can continue to claim, as Hassan
    Nasrallah did during his televised August 14 speech, that the
    army is not sufficiently equipped and is therefore incapable
    of defending Lebanon.  Murr wants to snatch away this trump
    card from Hizballah and its Iranian and Syrian backers.
    Hizballah, he said, had used "super-equipment," such as
    Korean anti-tank missiles modified in Iran to pierce the
    Merkava tank armor, in order to defeat the Israelis.  The LAF
    also needs to be "super-equipped" in order -- and clearly
    here he was referring to both Hizballah and Israel -- "to
    resist, to defend, and to destroy if necessary."  Murr asked
    if the LAF could be supported and rapidly equipped, so that
    in "three months" the Lebanese can come to the negotiating
    table and tell Hizballah thank you, but its arms are no
    longer needed in defense of the country.  Murr basically
    explained that he saw the LAF gradually gaining the upper
    hand over Hizballah in the south by a combination of new
    equipment to the LAF, beefed-up UNIFIL presence, and
    enforcement of weapons shipments to Hizballah.

    ¶7.  (C)  Regarding the monitoring of the border between
    Lebanon and Syria, Murr said that it wouldn't be a problem to
    move 7500 LAF troops there and to erect towers and radar
    equipment, and added that "UNIFIL will help."  When the
    Ambassador asked how Murr planned to get Cabinet support for
    this plan, Murr waved his hand dismissively and claimed the
    "enforcement of the border doesn't need Cabinet approval."

    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶8.  (C)  While his comments on border monitoring without

    BEIRUT 00002665  003 OF 003

    Cabinet approval are clearly unrealistic, Murr seems to
    finally be getting a grasp on the complexities involved in
    LAF deployment to the South (Note. See reftels for his
    earlier, rosier predictions. End Note).  Of the options
    facing the Lebanese government -- don't deploy the LAF at
    all, deploy but with an armed Hizballah presence in the
    South, or deploy as Hizballah disarms in the South -- the
    last is obviously the preferred choice.  Murr prefers this
    option as well, but is willing to go with the second option
    if so directed by the rest of the Cabinet.  His argument is
    that Lebanon should not lose the historic opportunity to get
    the army to the south, and that reequipping the LAF (and
    adding in the beefed-up UNIFIL) will tip the balance of power
    in the south to the LAF's favor.

    ¶9.  (C)  Murr's comments on Sunni reticence to challenge
    Hizballah highlight a real concern in the current political
    bartering in Lebanon.  Unless Siniora and others from March
    14 are willing to stand as one -- Maronite, Sunni, and Druze
    -- and compel Hizballah to disarm in the South now,
    disregarding all of Hizballah's and Syria's attempts to paint
    them as "traitors" in league with the "Zionist entity," then
    it looks as though the GOL will have to settle for the second
    option -- with the LAF, UNIFIL-plus, and Hizballah all armed
    and in the same bed, and a jumpy Israel just across the Blue
    Line.  We have noted that the Maronite March 14 members
    remain outspoken on the issue of disarmament, despite
    implicit death threats against them in the Hizballah-allied
    media, while on the Druze side Walid Joumblatt will likely
    add to these calls during a press conference scheduled for
    August 17.  The one weak point remains the Sunnis -- as well
    as Nabih Berri who, though he hates Hizballah, is unlikely to
    openly confront the group -- and we will work on stiffening
    the backbones of PM Siniora, Saad Hariri and other Sunni
    March 14 members to join in the fray, if not publicly then at
    least in the Cabinet, to press Hizballah to disarm at least
    in the South now.  As we will report septel, the Ambassador
    met with Siniora on 8/16 -- a day after the conversation with
    Murr -- and Siniora is moving to retake the initiative in a
    step-by-step approach to UNSCR 1701 implementation.
    FELTMAN

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