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### Viewing cable 06ROME584, ITALY'S UNION COALITION PROGRAM: FAULT LINES ON

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06ROME584 | 2006-02-24 15:46 | 2011-03-17 11:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Rome

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ROME 000584

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2016
    TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON MARR PARM MOPS ELAB EINV IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS

    SUBJECT: ITALY'S UNION COALITION PROGRAM: FAULT LINES ON
    THE LEFT

    Classified By: Political Minister Counselor David D. Pearce for reasons
     1.4 (b) and (d).

    -------
    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1. (C)  Romano Prodi presented the center-left Union
    coalition's 281-page governing program on February 13.  As
    opposed to establishing a concrete program for the Union
    coalition should it win the April 9 national elections, the
    document has been viewed by critics from both the right and
    the left as an index of the Union's internal disputes.  The
    Eurocentric foreign policy section is relatively short, heavy
    on pacifist language, stresses multilateralism and
    ""rebalancing"" transatlantic relations, recognizes the
    importance of the Middle East, calls for a withdrawal of
    Italian troops from Iraq in consultation with the Iraqi
    government, and anticipates a re-examination of the
    disposition of Italian military facilities.  Long on analysis
    of Italy's economic and social ills, it is weak on
    prescriptions for change.  Although the foreign policy
    portion is cause for concern, e.g., the near absence of
    reference to NATO, the document serves mainly to underscore
    the fault lines within the center left itself.  END SUMMARY.

    ----------------
    UNITY IN DISCORD
    ----------------

    ¶2. (SBU) Romano Prodi presented the center-left ""Union""
    coalition's 281-page governing program on February 13.  The
    presentation ceremony featured Prodi standing on a stage
    together with the leaders of the varied political parties in
    Prodi's coalition.  The event was meant to highlight
    coalition unity and a forward-looking governing program, the
    result of months of careful negotiation.  Not surprisingly,
    the program is a laundry list of general proposals on social,
    environmental and labor issues.

    ¶3. (C) As opposed to establishing a concrete program for the
    Union coalition should it win the April 9 national elections,
    the document has been viewed by critics from both the right
    and the left as an index of the Union's internal disputes.
    The day after its presentation, a major battle broke out over
    the absence of language on the controversial Lyon-Turin
    high-speed rail (TAV).  Communist Renewal and Green Party
    leaders said its absence means the project would be canceled
    while Prodi assured nervous moderates and business leaders
    the project would go forward.  Internal bickering has also
    occurred over whether the Union should continue PM
    Berlusconi's policy toward Israel (Daisy Party) or whether it
    should be reversed completely (Italian Communist Party).  One
    Daisy party official told Poloff not to worry about he termed
    ""this trash document"" that they were forced to draft with
    communists and greens.  Poloff noted that they would have to
    govern with those same people.

    --------------
    FOREIGN POLICY
    --------------

    ¶4. (SBU) The foreign policy section is relatively short,
    places Europe at the center of foreign policy, is heavy on
    pacifist language, stresses multilateralism, recognizes the
    importance of the Middle East, calls for a withdrawal of
    Italian troops from Iraq and for reassessing the disposition
    of the country's military facilities.  Iran is not
    specifically mentioned, though the program does refer to the
    problem of weapons proliferation.  A summary is provided
    below:

    --European integration: Europe and deepening European
    integration is the center-left's ""guiding principle.""  The
    Union repeatedly describes EU federalism as a strategic goal,
    states that Italy's national interests fold into those of
    Europe and that it will work for the resumption of the EU's
    institutional reform process.  It proposes a Europe-wide
    referendum in 2009 on the EU Constitution in conjunction with
    European Parliamentary elections.  It supports the accession
    of Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia and underscores the need to
    integrate western Balkan countries into Europe in order to
    encourage the resolution of lingering conflicts.  It favors
    accession negotiations for Turkey but points to the need for
    Turkey to comply fully with the Copenhagen criteria and to
    resolve issues of political and institutional reform, human
    rights, and the rights of minorities.  NATO receives no
    direct mention and notably not in its role as a locus for
    transatlantic political consultation.

    -- Common EU Foreign, Security, Defense Policies:  The
    program says a common EU foreign and security policy (CFSP)
    and a common EU defense policy (ESDP) are major priorities.
    The Union proposes implementing a CFSP immediately by
    creating an EU foreign minister, abolishing veto powers on
    foreign policy decisions within the EU Council, using
    enhanced cooperation as often as possible in decision-making
    processes and in conflict prevention and management, and
    creating an EU seat in international organizations, such as
    the IMF, WB, and UNSC.  Italy will implement this policy
    during its UNSC rotational presence in 2007 by coordinating
    EU policies within the Security Council.  The emphasis is on
    policy rather than development of military capabilities.
    There is no representation of ESDP, however, as competitive
    with or replacing the transatlantic Alliance in a military
    sense.

    --United Nations/International Criminal Court/IAEA: The
    Union's second guiding principle is what the platform
    characterizes as Italy,s ""vocation for peace"" and is pegged
    to article 11 of the Italian Constitution, which rejects war
    as a method to resolve international controversies.  The
    focus is on multilateralism and multipolarism, in particular
    regional organizations like the EU.  Making the UN stronger
    is a priority and Italy can/can relinquish part of its
    national sovereignty to the UN.  The use of force is allowed
    only in the greater context of collective security and for
    international police functions, in accordance with Chapter
    VII of the UN Charter.  In full compliance with article 47 of
    its Charter, the UN should create a Military Staff Committee
    and a ready alert contingent.  Genocide is an attack against
    another country and requires self-defense, and the General
    Assembly should be given more powers toward this end. The
    role of the International Criminal Court should be enhanced.
    Efforts must be made for concrete progress toward the
    disarmament of nuclear powers, in order to then apply a ""more
    effective pressure"" on the new nuclear countries and on those
    that have nuclear ambitions.  The IAEA must be given more
    powers to obtain full NPT compliance.

    -- Rebalancing Transatlantic Relations: Italy must work to
    enhance the UN system, reform the UN, become again a lead
    country in Europe, and ""re-affirm and rebalance transatlantic
    relations in order to contribute to international security
    and assure peace and justice among nations.""

    -- Terrorism: Terrorism is unacceptable and ""unjustifiable.""
    The struggle against terrorism must be carried out using
    ""political methods, the intelligence services, and by
    opposing terrorist organizations.""  It is necessary to
    develop a global strategy that should be articulated thus:
    cooperation among intelligence services, control of suspect
    financial flows and safe haven countries, development
    cooperation agreements with third countries. (Note: There is
    no reference to the use of military troops, and some
    coalition members distinguish between legitimate insurgency
    and terrorism.  End Note.)

    -- Iraq: The program states that ""the war in Iraq and the
    occupation were a serious mistake.""  It continues that it
    ""weakened the UN and undermined multilateral world
    governance.""  On the future of Italian troops in Iraq, it
    states that, ""immediately after parliamentary elections in
    April, the Union will ask the Italian parliament to vote for
    the withdrawal of Italian troops.  Withdrawal would occur
    according to a schedule that is based on a timing that is
    technically needed for withdrawal and in consultation with
    the new Iraqi Government in order to guarantee security.
    Withdrawal will be accompanied by a ""strong political
    initiative to support.... transition toward democracy in Iraq
    and contribute to finding a path for Iraq to attain full
    democratic stability and which would give Iraqis full
    sovereignty over their country.""  (Note: The word used is
    ""consultation"" and not ""agreement.""  The program does not
    address the need to consult or coordinate Italy's withdrawal
    with any of the other members of the coalition of the willing
    that are still in Iraq.  The US is never mentioned in the
    chapter on Iraq.  End note.)

    -- Mediterranean: The Union's priority is an active Italian
    and EU ""neighborhood policy"" with countries in the
    Mediterranean region.  ""Italy must work for a peaceful,
    stable and democratic Mediterranean"" through special
    relations with all and new development policies based on
    universal principles and intercultural dialogue.  The end
    goal is a common Euro- Mediterranean space.  Regional
    disarmament and denuclearization must be pursued.

    -- North-South and Solidarity:  The Union proposes to
    increase public funds for development assistance programs in
    the poorer countries.  ""Armed forces must never be used for
    humanitarian intervention or development assistance.""

    --New Defense Policies:  The Union's intent is to (1) work on
    European defense and on cooperation between the EU and the
    US; (2) reorganize a new and modern defense system; and (3)
    focus on human resources.  Enhanced/structured EU cooperation
    on defense has begun and should proceed rapidly.  In order to
    address the problems that derive from a unipolar world order,
    ""we must aim for an autonomous European defense, albeit
    linked to the Atlantic Alliance, which is undergoing in-depth
    changes.""  The Union will propose the need to firmly anchor
    Italy,s strategic position in Europe, as a player in
    Europe's integration policies, as well as a loyal ally of the
    United States.  Italy's defense system must be made more
    ""flexible and integrated at a European level with our
    allies.""

    --Military Basing: The program cites the changed strategic
    situation after the end of the Cold War and the need for
    repositioned and modernized, more efficient forces.  The
    program also anticipates a shift of military facilities and
    units toward southern Italy, both closer to threats emanating
    from the Mediterranean and to many soldiers' homes in the new
    all-volunteer military.  This relocation of some military
    presence to the south would be a result of a promised
    ""redefinition of the military burden ('servitu' militare')
    borne by our territories, particularly in regard to nuclear
    bases.""  The program foresees a second National Conference to
    examine the issue of the military burden borne by different
    Italian regions.  (NOTE: This item primarily concerns Italian
    national military presence and, apart from La Maddelena, does
    not raise questions about U.S.military presence at Italian
    bases. The military burden discussed has long been a
    controversial issue in Sardinia, which bears a
    disproportionate burden in terms of military right-of-way,
    training areas, practice ranges, etc.  In November 2005, DS
    Secretary Piero Fassino publicly promised Sardinian Regional

    SIPDIS
    President Renato Soru that the center-left would advocate for
    shifting military burden to other regions and would call a
    national conference on the issue.  The only facility in Italy
    that might qualify in the public eye as a ""nuclear base"" is
    La Maddelena, now scheduled to be closed.

    ------------------------------------
    THE ECONOMY: WHY ITALY IS IN DECLINE
    ------------------------------------

    ¶5. (SBU) In the section ""Why Italy is in decline,"" the Union
    details a series of well-known problems with the Italian
    economy. The analysis is precise and some of the solutions
    track results from the Ambassador's Partnership for Growth.
    The program is generally short on specific solutions to these
    well-known problems.  It generally offers generic solutions
    that observers believe will be difficult for a fractured
    coalition to implement.

    ¶6. (SBU) The Union proposes a renewed industrial policy to
    strengthen small companies and shift to more technically
    advanced sectors; a reform of public spending, primarily
    investments; the strengthening of industrial districts and
    their conversion into technology parks; and implementation of
    measures aimed at improving competition in all sectors of the
    economy. The Union plans to propose a new governance model
    for growth and competitiveness--a major reorganization and
    coordination between the government, line ministers and the
    regions.  In particular, the Union proposes the creation of a
    new ministry for the real economy that would be in charge of
    initiatives of economic competitiveness, support to
    companies, energy policy, competition, and
    internationalization.

    -----------------------
    SOCIAL AND LABOR ISSUES
    -----------------------

    ¶7. (SBU) The Union program is highly critical of Berlusconi's
    social and labor policies, which it claims have created a
    precarious work environment.  As a solution, the Union
    proposes a laundry list of labor and pension reforms,
    family-friendly work policies, education schemes and
    immigration reforms.  Union groups have criticized the
    program as too long and inclusive to be a serious proposal.

    COMMENT
    ¶8. (C) The Union's proposals for social and economic policy
    are too broad and vague to be meaningful, and many of the
    proposed labor reforms would increase the deficit and work
    against measures designed to increase the efficiency of the
    Italian economy.  The foreign policy chapters contain some
    areas of real concern, especially as regards a potentially
    hyper-Eurocentricity and the near absence of any reference to
    NATO.  While the issue of re-examining the disposition of
    military facilities makes no direct mention of NATO or the
    US, this will be an issue to watch in the event that the far
    left were to emerge with strong influence within a
    center-left coalition post-April 9.  The language on Italian
    troop deployments to Iraq is sufficiently vague to please
    both the moderates and extremists within the Union and
    contains no real surprises.  In brief, the document is a
    hodgepodge, and serves best as a guide to the fault lines
    within the center left itself.  END COMMENT.
    SPOGLI

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