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### Viewing cable 04BRASILIA2742, RESULTS OF SECOND ROUND OF BRAZIL'S MUNICIPAL

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
04BRASILIA2742 | 2004-11-01 15:11 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Brasilia

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 002742

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV SOCI BR
    SUBJECT: RESULTS OF SECOND ROUND OF BRAZIL'S MUNICIPAL
    ELECTIONS --  SERRA WINS SAO PAULO AS EXPECTED

    REF: A. BRASILIA 2506

         ¶B. RIO DE JANEIRO 1453
         ¶C. SAO PAULO 1527
         ¶D. SAO PAULO 1483
         ¶E. SAO PAULO 1472

    ¶1. SUMMARY.  Brazil's 2004 election cycle has come to an end.
     With second-round runoffs in 43 cities on October 31,
    Brazilians have elected mayors and city councils in all 5,562
    municipalities nationwide.  The most closely-watched races
    went as expected: Jose Serra (PSDB) defeated incumbent Marta
    Suplicy (PT) in Sao Paulo; while Jose Fogaca (PPS) upended
    the PT machine in Porto Alegre.  Elsewhere, a broad coalition
    crushed the PFL machine in Salvador; and PT a leftist
    completed her unlikely path to city hall in Fortaleza.
    Overall these elections continue the trend that began in the
    mid-1990s and accelerated with the 2002 national elections:
    the emergence of Lula's PT and the PSDB of former-President
    Cardoso as the two strongest national parties, with the PMDB
    and PFL trying to hold their ground.  These were local
    elections, with coalitions often contrary to those at the
    national level, and with local issues and personalities on
    display.  As such, they offer uncertain predictions, at best,
    for the 2006 national elections and beyond.  Yet it seems
    likely that the PT and PSDB will continue to be the primary
    wellsprings for national-level politics in the coming years,
    while other parties large and small will continue to wield
    significant regional influence.  END SUMMARY.

    2004 ELECTIONS TURN OUT WELL FOR PT AND PSDB
    --------------------------------------------
    ¶2.  The second-round runoffs in Brazil's municipal elections
    were held on October 31.  Of Brazil's 5,562 municipalities,
    only those with populations greater than 200,000 are eligible
    for runoffs (smaller towns use plurality voting).  Thus 43
    elections were held this week in state capitals and other key
    cities.  In Sao Paulo, Jose Serra (PSDB -Brazilian Social
    Democratic Party), who lost to Lula in the 2002 presidential
    race, defeated incumbent Marta Suplicy (PT -Workers' Party).
    In Porto Alegre, Jose Fogaca (PPS -Popular Socialist Party)
    defeated PT leftist Raul Pont, ending the PT's sixteen-year
    run in city hall (see Sao Paulo septel for details on the
    southern states).  In Salvador, the PFL (Liberal Front Party)
    machine of Antonio Carlos Magalhaes suffered a crushing
    defeat as its candidate, Senator Cesar Borges, was thrashed
    by the PDT's (Democratic Labor Party) Joao Henrique, who led
    a broad oppositionist coalition.  In Fortaleza, PT leftist
    Luizianne Lins defeated PFL conservative Moroni Torgan.
    Lins' victory was improbable because the PT national party
    supported another candidate in the first round.  And in
    Manaus, Serafim Correa (PSB) upset old-style politico
    Amazonino Mendes (PFL).

    ¶3.  The overall national trend of this election cycle was the
    continued emergence of President Lula's PT and the opposition
    PSDB as the strongest parties nationwide, followed by the two
    other traditional powerhouses: the centrist PMDB (Party of
    the Brazilian Democratic Movement) and the conservative PFL.
    These four are the only parties to win over 10 million votes
    nationwide.  But in certain areas and depending on local
    circumstances, personalities, and coalitions, the smaller
    parties --such as the PPS and the communist PCdoB-- also did
    well.  At the national level, the PMDB is a member of the
    PT's governing coalition, while the PSDB and PFL form the
    bulk of the opposition.

    RESULTS IN THE STATE CAPITALS
    -----------------------------
    ¶4.  Fifteen of Brazil's 26 state capitals held runoff
    elections on October 31.  These are key races by definition
    because the mayor of the capital generally has influence
    second only to the state governor in terms of party
    consolidation, pork distribution, and policy implementation.
    Results of the state capital races are as follows:

    SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST:

    - Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo:  Jose Serra (PSDB) defeated incumbent
    Marta Suplicy (PT), 55-45%, in the nation's highest-profile
    race.
    - Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul: Jose Fogaca (PPS) led a
    broad coalition in defeating Raul Pont (PT), 53-47%.  The PT
    had held city hall for sixteen years.
    - Curitiba, Parana: Beto Richa (PSDB) defeated Angelo Vanhoni
    (PT), 55-45%.
    - Florianopolis, Santa Catarina: Dario Berger (PSDB) defeated
    Chico Assis (PP), 58-42%.
    - Vitoria, Espirito Santo: Joao Coser (PT) crushed Cesar
    Colnago (PSDB), 58-42%.

    NORTHEAST:

    - Salvador, Bahia:  State Deputy Joao Henrique (PDT) led a
    broad coalition in knocking off the PFL machine's candidate,
    Senator Cesar Borges, 75-25%.  The magnitude of this loss
    suggests it may be the beginning of the end for PFL strongman
    Antonio Carlos Magalhaes, who continues to hold many city
    halls in the interior.
    - Fortaleza, Ceara: PT leftist Luizianne Lins got
    second-round support from the PT national party and the local
    PSDB machine to defeat Moroni Torgan (PFL), 56-44%.  The PT
    national party did not support Lins' longshot candidacy in
    the first round.
    - Natal, Rio Grande do Norte:  Incumbent Carlos Eduardo (PSB)
    barely held off Luiz Almir (PSDB), 52-48%.
    - Maceio, Alagoas: Cicero Almeida (PDT) defeated Alberto
    Sexta-Feira (PSB), 57-43%.
    - Teresina, Piaui: Silvio Mendes (PSDB) defeated Adalgisa
    Moraes Souza (PMDB), wife of Lula-baiting Senator Mao Santa
    (PMDB), 58-42%.

    NORTH AND CENTER-WEST:

    - Manaus, Amazonas:  The PSB's Serafim Correa scored a
    stunning upset over Amazonino Mendes (PFL), a dinosaur who
    had served two terms each as mayor and governor, 52-48%.
    Mendes ran 15 points ahead of Correa in the first round.
    - Goiania, Goias: Another old-style politico, Iris Rezende
    (PMDB), knocked off PT incumbent Pedro Wilson in the state
    that surrounds Brasilia, 57-43%.
    - Porto Velho, Rondonia: City Council President Roberto
    Sobrinho (PT) defeated Dr. Mauro Nazif (PSB), 54-46%.
    - Cuiaba, Mato Grosso: In the city's first-ever runoff,
    Wilson Santos (PSDB) defeated Alexandre Cesar (PT), 53-47%.
    - Belem, Para: Senator Duciomar Costa (PTB) defeated Senator
    Ana Julia Carepa (PT), 58-42%.

    RESULTS IN OTHER KEY CITIES
    ---------------------------
    ¶5. Some key races that were not capital cities:

    - Contagem, Minas Gerais: PT challenger Marilia Campos
    knocked off PSDB Ademir Lucas, 60-40%.  Coupled with the PT's
    first-round win in state capital Belo Horizonte, this sets up
    Minas Gerais along with Sao Paulo as future PSDB/PT
    battlegrounds.

    - Campos, Rio de Janeiro.  A tumultuous campaign in the
    hometown of presidential pretender Anthony Garotinho (ref B)
    saw dirty tricks and 500 army troops keeping the peace on
    election day.  Garotinho's PMDB candidate, Geraldo Pudim, was
    defeated, 55-45%, by Carlos Campista (PDT) who allied an
    array of anti-Garotinho forces.

    - Nova Iguacu, Rio de Janeiro:  PT upstart Lindberg Farias
    has established a PT foothold in a state where the party is
    weak by knocking off PMDB incumbent (and Garotinho machine
    candidate) Mario Marques, 58-42%.

    PARTY READOUT
    -------------
    ¶6.  These were local elections, so their prophetic value for
    the 2006 presidential and gubernatorial races is limited.
    But in broad strokes they tend to confirm the widely-held
    assumption that heading into the 2006 elections Lula's PT,
    allied with an assortment of mostly left-of-center parties,
    will face the PSDB-led opposition bloc, both in the
    presidential race and the Sao Paulo gubernatorial race.  In
    terms of the dynamics of the big four parties:

    - the PT won 16.3 million votes nationwide in this cycle and
    is still a big-city labor-based party that is expanding in
    many interior areas and is the fastest-growing party overall.
     Nationwide it elected 174 mayors in 2000 and 412 this year.
    The loss of Sao Paulo and Porto Alegre is a deep
    disappointment to party leaders.

    - the PSDB of former-President Cardoso is in opposition to
    the PT.  It won 15.7 million votes nationwide and has
    powerful state-based machines in a broad arc from Sao Paulo
    and Minas through Tocantins to Piaui and Ceara in the
    northeast.  Nationwide it elected 987 mayors in 2000 and 871
    this year.

    - the PMDB won 14.2 million votes nationwide but does not
    fare well in big cities and has no national stars.  It has
    dominant machines in the three southern states, has
    Garotinho's wounded machine in Rio, and has traditional
    "coronels" in the northeast.  The party is in Lula's
    coalition at the federal level, but will ally with any party
    at the local level.  Nationwide it elected 1,253 mayors in
    2000 and 1,057 this year.

    - the PFL is a conservative party that polled 11.3 million
    votes nationwide.  It is more in the way of an alliance of
    "coronels" (some say dinosaurs) in a number of distinct
    strongholds.  It polls well in the northeast, and has
    redoubts in Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Santa Catarina.
    Antonio Carlos Magalhaes' machine still has a hammerlock on
    the interior of Bahia but was soundly whipped by a
    left-of-center coalition in the state capital, Salvador.
    Nationwide the PFL won 1,027 mayors in 2000 and 790 this year.

    COMMENT - FEW SUPRISES
    ----------------------
    ¶7.  The second round runoffs went mostly as expected.  The
    PT's losses in Sao Paulo and Porto Alegre were predicted by
    the polls for several weeks.  The two real surprises were the
    magnitude of the defeat suffered by the Magalhaes' PFL
    candidate in Salvador (75-25%), and the upset victory of
    Serafim Correa in Manaus over another old-timer, Amazonino
    Mendes.  Both results point to a subtext that was commented
    on in the 2002 elections and continued this month:  many of
    the old machines and dinosaurs are showing weakness.  This
    trend is far from consolidated, and new coronels (such as
    Garotinho) are always eager to replace the old.  One
    columnist sees this trend as a healthy strengthening of
    Brazil's two-decade old democracy, with voters increasingly
    looking for competence and integrity instead of voting at the
    instructions of the local machine.  If this trend continues,
    it will be good news for all Brazilians.
    DANILOVICH

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