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### Viewing cable 07BRASILIA1897, SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT OF NEC DIRECTOR AL HUBBARD

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07BRASILIA1897 | 2007-10-04 10:38 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Brasilia

`

    VZCZCXRO6544
    RR RUEHRG
    DE RUEHBR #1897/01 2771038
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 041038Z OCT 07
    FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0104
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
    INFO RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 7193
    RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 0910
    RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 5200

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 BRASILIA 001897

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    NSC PLEASE PASS TO DIRECTOR AL HUBBARD AND JOHN COBAU

    E.0. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV ECON SENV BR
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT OF NEC DIRECTOR AL HUBBARD

    REFTEL: A) BRASILIA 1819; B) BRASILIA 1813; C) BRASILIA 1826

    ¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Your visit comes on the heels of an August visit
    to Brazil by State Under Secretary for Economic, Energy and
    Agricultural Affairs Reuben Jeffery III.  During his visit, the
    Under Secretary's discussions with GOB officials included biofuels
    and infrastructure (REFTELS A, B,C).  Also at the forefront of the
    Brazilians' agenda is the Doha Development Round (DDR) negotiations,
    which were set back in June when talks between the U.S., the EU,
    Brazil, and India stalled over disagreements concerning tariff cuts
    for goods and services and over agricultural subsidies. The
    Brazilians are also interested in a climate change agenda, although
    their vision of the approach may differ considerably from ours.

    ¶2.  (SBU) While relations between the U.S. and Brazil are friendly,
    the USG often encounters major difficulties in gaining the
    cooperation of senior policymakers on issues of significant interest
    to the United States.  Eager to assert its own influence, the
    Brazilian government shies away from cooperation with the USG -
    unless it can clearly be characterized as a reciprocal exchange
    among equals.  In contrast, on issues involving matters perceived as
    technical in nature - law enforcement, science and biofuels - the
    GoB is eager to engage.  End Summary.

    ---------
    CEO Forum
    ---------

    ¶3. (U) The launch of the upcoming CEO Forum will provide a new
    avenue for both the Brazilian and American private sector to examine
    the problems that hinder the trading relationship and
    competitiveness at large, and to make recommendations to both our
    governments for steps to improve.  We expect that concerns about
    infrastructure, taxation, intellectual property rights and slow
    movement toward a conclusion of the Doha Round may surface in the
    meeting, and that the CEOs will present some specific
    recommendations in these, or other, areas.  Maintaining the momentum
    and helping create movement based upon the recommendations will be
    an ongoing challenge for both sides.

    ---------------------------
    MACRO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
    ---------------------------

    ¶4. (U) President Lula and his economic team have implemented prudent
    fiscal and monetary policies and pursued reform.  Brazil's external
    accounts have improved substantially over the last three years.
    Nevertheless, initially reported 2006 GDP growth was only 2.9%
    (third worst in the hemisphere).  In 2007, Brazil revised its
    methodology for calculating GDP and restated its 2006 GDP as 3.7%.
    For 2007, Brazil's Central Bank is forecasting 4.7% growth (slightly
    higher than most private sector forecasts).  Inflation over the next
    three years is forecast to be in line with the central bank's annual
    target (4.5%).

    ¶5. (SBU) Buoyed by exports and investment inflows, the real has
    remained at appreciated levels for most of the year, allowing the
    government and businesses to pay down external debt.  Last year, the
    government eliminated the last of its restructured debt from
    Brazil's late-1980's default.  Based upon the improving external
    debt dynamics, Fitch IBCA upgraded its credit rating on Brazil's
    sovereign debt in February 2006, to BB-.

    ¶6. (SBU) Key challenges remain.  The public sector debt-to-GDP ratio
    is on a downward trend but remains high, at about 50%.  Real
    interest rates are among the highest in the world; reducing them
    will require both reductions in the government's borrowing
    requirement and reform of the financial sector.  Income and land
    distribution remain skewed.  Investment and domestic savings are
    low, but growing.  The informal sector constitutes over 40 percent
    of the economy, in part due to the tax burden (nearly 38 percent of
    GDP), one of the highest among large developing economies.

    ¶7. (SBU) Sustaining and expanding growth rates in the longer term
    depends on further structural reform efforts and concrete steps to
    create a more welcoming climate for investment, both domestic and
    foreign.  A bill allowing Public-Private Partnerships, a key effort
    to attract private investment to infrastructure, passed in 2004,
    although implementation of this initiative still awaits promulgation
    of the necessary regulations.  Labor reform, additional tax reform
    and autonomy for the Central Bank were on the agenda for 2005 to
    2006, but appear unlikely to be addressed at in the near term.  The
    government still needs to improve the regulatory climate for
    investment; to simplify torturous tax systems at the state and
    federal levels; and to further reform the pension system.

    BRASILIA 00001897  002 OF 004

    --------------
    Infrastructure
    --------------

    ¶8.  (SBU) Poor infrastructure issues have long been cited as part of
    the "Custo Brasil" or "Brazil Cost," a term used to refer to the
    systemic problems that hinder Brazil's competitiveness.  For
    example, the interior of the country depends on a series of
    ill-maintained roads for transportation of goods to its aging ports.
     Brazilian officials have signaled that the GOB is interested in
    working with the USG to explore ways to maximize funds, technology
    and managerial skills in infrastructure projects around the country,
    or possibly for the two countries' entities to invest in third
    countries.  GoB officials have proposed that both governments work
    together on implementation as well as financing using a possible
    "tripod format" (a partnership between the GoB, a Brazilian company,
    and a US company) for infrastructure projects. (REFTELS A, B)

    -----------------
    DOHA AGENDA - WTO
    -----------------

    ¶9. (SBU) Brazil has used the Doha Development Agenda (DDA)
    negotiations as the main forum for engaging with developed country
    partners.  Brazil leads the G-20 group of developing countries in
    pressing for agricultural trade desires in the DDA.  Brazilian
    industry leaders and GoB officials have underlined that concern over
    the impact of Chinese imports on domestic manufacturers is one root
    cause behind their unwillingness to agree to the non-agricultural
    tariff cuts proposed by both the USG and the EU during the Doha
    Round. To date, Brazilian proposals do not provide real market
    access.  China has increased in importance as an export market for
    Brazilian soy, iron ore, and steel, becoming Brazil's fourth largest
    trading partner.  Impelled by a stronger real, this year China is
    set to become the second largest exporter to Brazil, passing
    Argentina and second only to the U.S.  Low-priced Chinese imports,
    particularly in the textile, footwear, and toy sectors, are now
    threatening to displace domestic Brazilian production.

    ¶10. (SBU) Brazil's objections to US agricultural programs has
    sparked initiation of a WTO case.  In the cotton dispute, some in
    the Brazilian congress have introduced an IPR "cross-retaliation"
    bill - a proposal that has some executive branch support and is
    slowly winding its way through the Brazilian congress.

    -------------------------
    TRADE POLICY AND MERCOSUL
    -------------------------

    ¶11. (SBU) The GoB is seeking expanded trade ties with developing
    countries and seeks to strengthen the Mercosul customs union with
    Uruguay, Paraguay, and Argentina.  Still, the Brazil-Argentine
    relationship is rife with trade disputes and Uruguay and Paraguay
    regularly complain that Brazil and Argentina reap a disproportionate
    share of benefits from the block.  The bloc has moved toward an
    increasingly political form, it remains engaged in external trade
    negotiations.  Mercosul has free trade agreements with Colombia,
    Ecuador, Venezuela, Peru, Chile and Bolivia. In addition to Cuba,
    the bloc has explored free trade talks with Israel, the Dominican
    Republic, Panama and states of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
    Mercosul has also tried to build on partial trade liberalization
    agreements concluded with India and South Africa in 2004. Brazil has
    not yet ratified Venezuela's full membership in Mercosul. In an
    August 2007 visit to Mexico, President Lula made overtures on
    improving the countries' bilateral trade relationship.

    --------
    BIOFUELS
    --------

    ¶12.  (U) Brazil's ethanol program is a model for alternative energy.
     Brazil's comparative advantage is its ability to inexpensively
    produce ethanol from sugarcane.  At the pump, ethanol receives
    favorable tax treatment from the Brazilian government.  It is
    exempted from the largest federal tax on gasoline (CIDE) and is
    subject to lower rates on two other federal levies (PIS and COFINS).
     Nevertheless, ethanol prices can vary substantially from state to
    state.  In contrast, gasoline prices vary less and are controlled by
    the government.

    ¶13.  (SBU) Since the 1980s, Brazil has attempted to promote ethanol
    fuel exports to the United States.  U.S. tariffs and charges make
    Brazilian imports less competitive.  In addition to import tariffs
    of 1.9 to 2.5 percent, the U.S. imposes a 54 cents/gallon surcharge
    on ethanol imported for use as fuel, which has led to a strong
    Brazilian push to lower or eliminate it.  (Comment:  Brazil is able

    BRASILIA 00001897  003 OF 004

    to sidestep in part the surcharge by exporting a large volume of
    ethanol to Caribbean countries, which then do some processing and
    ship the finished product to the United States under favorable
    treatment established by the Caribbean Basin Initiative. End
    Comment.)  Given the requirements of its fast-growing domestic
    market, Brazil may not be able to produce enough ethanol to supply
    international markets.  Some estimate that over the next one to two
    years, the maximum percentage of Brazil's cane crop that could be
    devoted to ethanol production is 54%.  If so, this would mean that
    Brazilian ethanol production is already running at 95 percent of
    capacity; and the country's ability to expand its sugarcane acreage
    is limited to perhaps 20 percent over the next 3-4 years.

    ¶14.  (SBU) In the first (August 20, 2007) meeting of the USG-GoB
    Biofuels Steering Committee established under the March 7 DOS/MRE
    MOU, officials from both countries emphasized the need to move
    quickly in the area of standardization to enable future
    collaboration and make biofuels a global commodity.  Representatives
    also agreed on the need for private sector involvement to spur
    momentum and keep pace with the market in the biofuels race.  Under
    the MOU, joint participation in third party biofuels initiatives in
    St. Kitts (August), El Salvador (September) and in the Dominican
    Republic (tentatively planned for November) has begun, NIST-led
    standards work is on-going, and DOE/USDA hosted a delegation of
    Brazilian scientists.

    -----------
    AGRICULTURE
    -----------

    ¶15. (U) Agriculture is a major sector of the Brazilian economy, and
    accounts for 13% of GDP (and 30% when including agribusiness) and
    33% of Brazilian exports. Brazil is the world's largest producer of
    sugar cane, coffee, tropical fruits, frozen concentrated orange
    juice (FCOJ), and has the world's largest commercial cattle herd
    (50% larger than the U.S.) at 180 million head.  Brazil is also an
    important producer of soybeans (second to the United States), corn,
    cotton, cocoa, tobacco, and forest products.  The remainder of
    agricultural output is in the livestock sector, mainly the
    production of beef and poultry (second to the U.S.), pork, milk, and
    seafood.

    --------------
    FOREIGN POLICY
    --------------

    ¶16. (SBU) Brazil has long seen itself as the natural leader of the
    region and covets a permanent UN Security Council (UNSC) seat.
    President Lula has run an activist foreign policy with a focus on
    South America and the Third World, seeking to forge alliances with
    other mid-sized powers (South Africa, India, etc.)- the 'South-South
    Policy.'  Lula has refused to condemn Cuba for human rights
    violations and, in fact, has pushed for Cuban membership in the Rio
    Group and a Cuba-Mercosul trade pact.  The GoB has worked to
    increase both its economic and political ties with Venezuela.
    Enhanced integration of the two countries' energy sectors is high on
    its agenda.  Lula has been especially solicitous of Chavez.  In the
    past, Lula has praised the Venezuelan President's democratic
    credentials and declared that the Chavez government had been
    demonized by its foes.  Recently, rifts have appeared over
    Venezuela's apparent involvement in Bolivia's decision to
    nationalize its oil and gas industry and Chavez's biting remarks to
    Brazilian Congress members who condemned the GoV's decision to close
    an independent television station.   President Lula and President
    Bush have spoken favorably of trilateral assistance, though so far
    this has only resulted in a joint health mission to Sao Tome and
    Principe.  Further activities may take place in other
    Portuguese-speaking countries (Mozambique and Angola).  At the UNGA
    on September 25, President Lula spoke of Iran's right to enrich
    uranium and its peaceful nuclear program, which undercut efforts to
    keep the pressure on Iran to suspend enrichment.

    ------------------------------
    ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE
    ------------------------------

    ¶17.  (SBU) Internationally, Brazil is an energetic advocate on
    environmental issues and strongly supports the Kyoto Protocol.
    The GoB is actively involved in international climate negotiations
    and strongly supports the United Nations Framework on Climate Change
    (UNFCCC), for which Brazil has taken an active role in the
    discussion of reducing emissions from deforestation.  Brazil has
    proposed a "results-oriented" fund, which is not consistent with USG
    policy on climate change.  Thus far, Brazilian reaction to President
    Bush's Global Climate Change (GCC) initiative has been lukewarm -
    they fear it will undermine the work of the UNFCCC. GoB officials

    BRASILIA 00001897  004 OF 004

    have said previously that the U.S., as a non-signatory to the Kyoto
    Protocol, places more emphasis on energy efficiency and expense than
    the environment (REFTEL B). After the September 27 - 28 Major
    Economies Meeting (MEM) on climate change, the head of the Brazilian
    delegation to the MEM, Ministry of Exterior Relations Under
    Secretary Everton Vargas told the press, "We see only a reiteration

    SIPDIS
    of what he [Bush] has said in the past.  We don't want this focus on
    voluntary controls." . . .  Bush tried to convince the participants
    that now he is taking seriously the problem of global warming.  But
    in practice, he only defended his obstinate position."

    ¶18.  (SBU) The Brazilians also hosted a ministerial meeting that
    took place in Rio de Janeiro, September 3-4, which addressed
    strengthening international governance of sustainable development,
    including a discussion of the French proposal to transform the UN
    Environmental Program (UNEP) into a World Environment Organization
    akin to the WTO.  The Brazilians have revised their position and now
    are calling for a new "umbrella" international organization, though
    focused not just on environment, but also on sustainable
    development.

    ----------------------------------
    Intellectual Property Rights (IPR)
    ----------------------------------

    ¶19.  (u) On April 30, 2007, the Office of the U.S. Trade
    Representative (USTR) elevated Brazil to "Watch List" status in its
    Special 301 Annual Report as a result of the country's progress,
    particularly in copyright protection and IPR enforcement.  Included
    in the USTR announcement was notice that Brazil will be subject to
    an Out-of-Cycle Review to monitor its progress on outstanding IPR
    concerns and to evaluate the sustainability of recent enforcement
    progress. On May 4, 2007, the GoB announced the issuance of a
    compulsory license for Merck Pharmaceutical's HIV/AIDS medicine
    Stocrin.  GoB officials cited cost reduction for their free HIV/AIDS
    public health program as the motivation for this action.  In
    contrast, some pharmaceutical industry representatives feel new
    Minister of Health Jose Gomes Temporao was driven more by ideology
    than by concern about future damage to Brazil's investment climate
    as a result of this action.

    CHICOLA

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