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### Viewing cable 08DUBLIN166, IRISH PRIME MINISTER AHERN TO RESIGN MAY 6; NO

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08DUBLIN166 | 2008-04-02 15:23 | 2011-07-22 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Dublin

`

    VZCZCXRO1391
    PP RUEHAG RUEHROV
    DE RUEHDL #0166/01 0931523
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 021523Z APR 08
    FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9017
    INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES PRIORITY
    RUEHBL/AMCONSUL BELFAST PRIORITY 0706

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBLIN 000166

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2018
    TAGS: PREL PGOV EI
    SUBJECT: IRISH PRIME MINISTER AHERN TO RESIGN MAY 6; NO
    CHANGE ANTICIPATED IN U.S.-IRISH BILATERAL RELATIONS

    REF: DUBLIN 114

    DUBLIN 00000166  001.2 OF 003

    Classified By: Ambassador Thomas C. Foley; reasons 1.4 (b/d).

    -------
    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1.  (C) Summary:  Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern announced
    April 2 that he will resign May 6 after almost 11 years as
    both head of government (Taoiseach/Prime Minister) and the
    head of his political party, Fianna Fail.  Saying that he was
    stepping aside because the attention paid to the Mahon
    Tribunal investigations into his financial affairs (reftel)
    was becoming a distraction from the more important work of
    governing, he nonetheless emotionally reiterated that he
    never took any "corrupt payments" and that his resignation
    was a personal decision not driven by the Tribunal
    proceedings.  Ahern stressed that he still planned to address
    a Joint Session of Congress on April 30.  Officials in the
    Taoiseach's office say that whoever is Taoiseach will attend
    the May 7-9 investment conference in Northern Ireland.
    Ahern's resignation will trigger a vote for the new Fianna
    Fail party leader, who (if the governing coalition remains
    intact -- as seems likely) will become the new Prime
    Minister.  The heir apparent is Deputy Prime Minister
    (Tanaiste) and Minister of Finance Brian Cowen.

    ¶2.  (C) Summary, continued.  The Taoiseach's bombshell
    announcement caught Ireland by surprise.  Through the day on
    April 2, there have been many kind words for Ahern's
    accomplishments, particularly regarding the Irish role in the
    Northern Ireland peace process and Ireland's "Celtic Tiger"
    economic growth.  We do not anticipate that new Fianna Fail
    leadership portends any change in U.S.-Irish bilateral
    relations, including Irish support for important U.S. foreign
    policy initiatives, such as the use of Shannon airport for
    troop transits to and from Iraq and Afghanistan.  Once the
    dust settles on this historic day in Dublin, we expect the
    Irish Government to resume business as usual.  End summary.

    -------------
    AHERN RESIGNS
    -------------

    ¶3.  (U) Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern
    announced April 2 that he will tender his resignation as
    Taoiseach to President Mary McAleese on May 6.  Flanked by
    Deputy Prime Minister (Tanaiste) and Minister of Finance
    Brian Cowen and other ministers from the governing coalition
    at a 10:00 AM press conference on the steps of the Dail
    (Parliament), Ahern stated that he will also resign as the
    head of the Fianna Fail political party, the largest party in
    the Irish governing coalition.  (Note:  Ahern will retain his
    seat as a Member of the Dail (lower house of Parliament).
    End note.)  While Ahern informed Cowen of his decision the
    evening of April 1, he reportedly notified other members of
    his cabinet only slightly earlier in the day at their
    regularly scheduled breakfast meeting.  Journalists were
    notified of the press conference only thirty minutes before
    it took place.

    ¶4.  (C) During his 12-minute speech an obviously emotional
    Ahern thanked all the people who had put their trust in him
    over the years, particularly his family and constituents.  He
    said the work he was most proud of was helping to bring peace
    to Northern Ireland and in overseeing the economic rise of
    Ireland into one of the richest countries in Europe.
    Referring to the long-running Mahon Tribunal investigation
    (reftel), Ahern maintained that he had never taken a "corrupt
    payment" and that the "constant barrage of commentary" was
    distracting the government from its task of governing.  He
    said that Ireland was facing "uncertain economic times" and
    the electorate would soon cast their vote on the Lisbon
    Treaty referendum, so it was important that government be
    allowed to function normally.  Ahern pointed out that the
    decision to resign was his and not precipitated by recent
    revelations in the Mahon Tribunal.  (Note: Damaging recent
    testimony by his former private secretary stated that
    payments into his personal bank accounts in the early 1990s
    were made in British pounds rather than Irish punts; a fact
    Ahern has strenuously denied in Tribunal testimony.  An
    article in The Irish Times on March 29 noted that Ahern's
    transactions under scrutiny by the Tribunal totaled 452,800
    British pounds.  End note.)  Ahern continued, saying it was,
    "always my intention to review my position as Taoiseach and
    leader of Fianna Fail in the aftermath of next summer's local
    and European elections," but noting that he had decided to
    bring the date forward to eliminate the distraction.

    ---------------

    DUBLIN 00000166  002.2 OF 003

    COALITION STAYS
    ---------------

    ¶5.  (C)  In a nod to the other parties in the current
    coalition government (Fianna Fail, the Green Party, and the
    Progressive Democrats) Ahern singled out John Gormley (leader
    of the Green party) and Mary Harney (leader of the
    Progressive Democrats) during his resignation announcement.
    Green Party leader John Gormley was seen directly behind
    Ahern in the televised press conference.  Both Gormley and
    Harney told the press later in the day that they and their
    parties have no intention of leaving the coalition.  They
    both intend to hold their ministerial positions to 2012, when
    the next general election is due to be held.

    ----------
    WHO'S NEXT
    ----------

    ¶6.  (U) According to officials in the Taoiseach's office,
    Ahern's resignation will trigger a vote among Fianna Fail
    Members of Parliament (TDs) to elect a new party leader.  The
    Party vote could occur as early as May 7, when the Irish
    Parliament is scheduled to resume business after Ireland's
    May 5 Bank Holiday.  Once the Fianna Fail TDs choose a new
    leader, they will put that leader forward to the entire
    Parliament as the new Prime Minister.  The final vote could
    occur shortly thereafter.

    ¶7.  (C) Assuming that the current coalition of Fianna Fail,
    the Green Party, and the Progressive Democrats remains
    intact, whoever is elected as the new leader of Fianna Fail
    will become the next Prime Minister.  The odds-on favorite is
    Brian Cowen, who in news reports throughout the day on April
    2, refused to be drawn out on his anticipated bid for Fianna
    Fail leadership, saying that it was "Bertie Ahern's day."
    Nevertheless, government and political contacts assure the
    Embassy that Cowen is 99% sure to get the nod.  Foreign
    Minster Dermot Ahern is seen as the only likely contender,
    and many wonder if he is willing to risk being weakened
    within the party by a loss to Cowen.

    ¶8.  (C) Cowen, a protege of former Prime Minister Albert
    Reynolds, is expected to keep the coalition together upon
    assuming the Taoiseach office.  Cowen was the principal
    architect of the current governing coalition following the
    May 2007 elections.  Many observers, however, expect Cowen to
    "clean house" by replacing up to half the Fianna Fail
    ministers in the government with colleagues of his own
    liking.

    ------------------------------
    IMPACT ON U.S.-IRISH RELATIONS
    ------------------------------

    ¶9.  (U) Ahern stated in his announcement that his decision to
    leave on May 6 took into account his invitation to travel to
    the U.S. to address a Joint Session of Congress on April 30
    and a state visit by the Prime Minister of Japan in early
    May.  He noted during his press conference that the address
    before Congress will be "one of the proudest moments of my
    political career."

    ¶10.  (C) Ahern's resignation should have no impact on
    Ireland's support for the Northern Ireland Investment
    Conference.  Martin Fraser, the senior most Northern Ireland
    advisor in the Office of the Taoiseach, told the Embassy that
    whoever is Taoiseach on May 7-8 will participate in the
    conference, especially since it will give the Taoiseach a
    chance to talk with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown on
    the margins.  Similarly, Irish Foreign Affairs Political
    Director Rory Montgomery told the Embassy that government
    support for U.S. military flights through Shannon airport
    will not change, nor will its desire to conclude a general
    and commercial aviation pre-clearance and pre-inspection
    agreement with the U.S.

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    LISBON TREATY
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    ¶11.  (C) Montgomery and other government officials stated
    that the resignation will not derail or delay the Irish
    referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, proposed for early June.
    Montgomery noted that Foreign Minister Dermot Ahern was due
    to propose a bill today in the Parliament that would launch
    the Referendum process.  Montgomery stressed his belief that
    Bertie Ahern was sincerely worried that his loss of
    credibility would hurt the government as it led a campaign to
    get the Treaty approved, and that this weighed as a factor in
    favor of Ahern's leaving his post prior to the referendum.

    DUBLIN 00000166  003.2 OF 003

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    COMMENT
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    ¶12.  (C) Comment:  The overwhelming initial reaction in
    Dublin has been shock and surprise.  In general, commentators
    have praised Ahern for his role in the Northern Ireland peace
    process and the success of the "Celtic Tiger."  Irish
    President Mary McAleese praised Ahern for his accomplishments
    in bringing prosperity to Ireland and peace to Northern
    Ireland.  As for U.S.-Irish bilateral relations, we do not
    anticipate that new Fianna Fail leadership portends any
    change in Irish support for important U.S. foreign policy
    initiatives.  Once the dust settles on this historic day in
    Dublin, we expect the Irish Government to resume business as
    usual.
    FOLEY

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