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### Viewing cable 06RIODEJANEIRO234, Petrobras Seeking Alternatives to Bolivian Gas

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06RIODEJANEIRO234 | 2006-05-24 16:41 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Rio De Janeiro

`

    VZCZCXRO6506
    RR RUEHRG
    DE RUEHRI #0234/01 1441641
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 241641Z MAY 06
    FM AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2431
    INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 8872
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 0282
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0297
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 0454
    RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 2428
    RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 4014
    RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 0302
    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 0309
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0149
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 0101
    RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 0127
    RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID 0064
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 0103
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    RHEBAAA/USDOE WASHDC
    RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 RIO DE JANEIRO 000234

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    STATE FOR WHA/BSC AND WHA/AND
    NSC FOR CRONIN
    DOE FOR SLADISLAW, GWARD
    STATE PASS OPIC FOR RGREENBURG, DMORONESE
    STATE PASS EXIM FOR NATALIE WEISS, COCONNER
    USDOC FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/WH/SHUPKA
    USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/MWARD
    AID/W FOR LAC/AA

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: EPET ENRG ECON PGOV PREL BR
    SUBJECT: Petrobras Seeking Alternatives to Bolivian Gas

    REFS: A) LA PAZ 1316 and previous

         B) BRASILIA 888 and previous
         C) SAO PAULO 512

    (U) This cable is Sensitive But Unclassified; please protect
    accordingly.

    -------
    Summary
    -------

    ¶1. (SBU) In a recent conversation with Consul General,
    Petrobras officials indicated that they did not anticipate
    that the Bolivia-Brazil crisis will lead to any short or
    medium term disruption in gas supply to Brazil.  Petrobras,
    however, will accelerate the development of gas reserves in
    the Santos Basin and may turn to fuel oil as a substitute for
    natural gas imports.  Our interlocutors noted that although
    Petrobras expected Morales to nationalize Bolivia's natural
    gas industry, the unfriendly way it was conducted, with
    troops occupying the company's facilities, was a big
    surprise.  Meanwhile, the price of gas imports from Bolivia
    remains to be negotiated.  Our Petrobras contacts further
    stated that the Bolivian nationalization, which was spurring
    the Brazilian government to develop its domestic gas supplies
    with the goal of gas self-sufficiency, had undermined
    Venezuelan President Chavez's planned gas mega-pipeline to
    Brazil and Argentina.  End Summary.

    ¶2. (U) On May 15, Consul General, Political Officer and
    Pol/Econ Specialist met with Petrobras officials, Edimilson
    Antonio Dato Sant'Anna, Director of Operations and Logistics,
    and Heitor Miranda Madeira da Silva, Executive Manager, to
    discuss the Petrobras-Bolivia gas situation.  In accordance
    with the nationalization decree, Bolivian President Evo
    Morales sent military troops on May 1 to occupy foreign oil
    and gas fields and installations, and gave foreign companies
    six months to agree to new contracts or leave Bolivia (ref
    A).  Petrobras representatives indicated that while the
    company was fully aware of Morales' campaign promise to
    nationalize the oil and gas industry, it had been expecting a
    transition period with negotiations, not the occupation of
    their facilities by the Bolivian military.

    ----------------------------
    The Flow of Gas from Bolivia
    ----------------------------

    ¶3. (U) Petrobras is the largest foreign investor in Bolivia
    with USD 1.5 billion invested there. According to the two
    Petrobras officials, the company's activities in Bolivia
    generate yearly revenues of USD 1.2 billion, equivalent to
    about 15% of Bolivia's GDP.  Prior to the nationalization
    decree, USD 600 million of this total had been destined for
    Bolivian government coffers, although now the decree would
    raise the government's take to USD 850 million.

    ¶4. (U) Sant'Anna and da Silva stated that Brazil's daily
    production of natural gas is 10 million cubic meters and
    daily imports from Bolivia are 26 million cubic meters.  This
    total daily consumption of 36 million cubic meters is divided
    as follows: 25.2 for the distributors, 6.3 for the
    thermoelectric plants, and 4.5 for the refineries. (Note:
    official GoB statistics from the National Petroleum Agency
    paint a somewhat different picture, with Bolivian gas

    RIO DE JAN 00000234  002 OF 003

    accounting for between 43% and 47% of Brazil's daily
    consumption.)  According to the Rio de Janeiro State
    Secretary for Energy, the state is partially protected from

    SIPDIS
    any shortfall in the supply of natural gas from Bolivia.
    Only 20 percent of the natural gas consumed in the state of
    Rio comes from Bolivia, while 80 percent comes from the
    Campos basin, north of Rio de Janeiro.

    -----------------------
    Alternatives for Brazil
    -----------------------

    ¶5. (U) Although our interlocutors declared that "there is a
    general consensus" that Brazil will not suffer any
    disruptions in its gas supply, they also observed that
    Petrobras was already studying alternatives to substitute
    natural gas imports -- from conversion of industrial
    facilities (steel, glass and ceramics in particular) to fuel
    oil from gas, acceleration of the production of natural gas
    from the Santos basin, and development of alternative sources
    of energy (biodiesel, ethanol).

    ¶6. (SBU) Sant'Anna stated that Petrobras' strategic plan
    already had contemplated accelerating the development of
    natural gas from the Santos Basin.  Initially, the timetable
    predicts daily production for 2008 in the range of 8 to 9
    million cubic meters, after completion and installation of
    the Mexilhao platform.  By the end of 2010, the company
    estimates daily production would reach 30 million cubic
    meters.  On May 18, Brazil's National Energy Policy Council
    (CNPE), an advisory body to President Lula that includes the
    Ministers of Energy and Agriculture and Petrobras' President,
    approved the accelerated Santos Basin development plan. To
    reach the target production levels, Petrobras estimates
    investments on the order of USD 16 billion, with the majority
    of this investment occurring between 2007 and 2011, when the
    construction of the ten platforms necessary for the
    completion of the project, will take place.  (Comment.  In
    the past, a number of independent analysts have noted that
    the notion that Petrobras will be able to get any significant
    amount of gas from the Santos Basin prior to 2010 is
    extremely optimistic.  End Comment.)

    ¶7. (U) A second alternative would be to substitute natural
    gas imports with fuel oil.  Petrobras' total natural gas
    imports are equivalent (boe - barrels of oil equivalent) to
    100 thousand barrels of oil per day.  In an interview with
    the press, Petrobras President Jose Sergio Gabrielli said
    that the company has the capacity to substitute all the
    natural gas imported from Bolivia with domestically produced
    oil.  Petrobras exported an average of 250 thousand barrels
    of oil during the first three months of 2006, and could
    easily re-direct part of this volume to domestic consumption.
    Separately, on May 18 Petrobras announced that in September
    2005 it had begun a pilot project in which it converted a
    (relatively small scale) thermal power generation plant to
    burn any one of several fuels, including gas, fuel oil,
    Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) or ethanol.

    -------------------------
    The Need for Compensation
    -------------------------

    ¶8. (SBU) The Petrobras officials believed the company would
    be indemnified adequately for any losses in Bolivia, based on

    RIO DE JAN 00000234  003 OF 003

    the agreements it had previously signed with the Bolivian
    government.  Petrobras will fight for its rights, Sant'Anna
    said, noting that the company has maintained a tough public
    stance and will not make further investments in Bolivia due
    to the 82 percent tax.  Brazil needs to give Bolivia a dose
    of reality, our interlocutors declared.

    ------------------------
    Alternatives for Bolivia
    ------------------------

    ¶9. (SBU) According to Petrobras officials, it would take a
    minimum of five years for Bolivia to build up alternatives to
    the gas exports to Brazil.  Were Bolivia somehow to identify
    new export customers, it could construct a new gas pipeline
    or a plant to liquefy the gas (LNG) for export.  Another
    option would be to construct a petrochemical plant.

    -------------------------------------
    Venezuelan (and Brazilian) Pipedreams
    -------------------------------------

    ¶10. (SBU) Sant'Anna also stated that major petroleum projects
    in South America are in danger now, especially the project to
    construct a ten thousand-kilometer gas pipeline connecting
    Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela.  He then turned his fire on
    Lula's foreign policy, arguing that President Lula's dream of
    promoting greater South American integration, with Brazil as
    the continent's leader, was totally impracticable now in view
    of the situation in Bolivia.

    -------
    Comment
    -------

    ¶11. (SBU) Petrobras is mounting a multi-pronged effort to
    persuade the Bolivians that Brazil has alternatives to
    Bolivian gas in both the short and long term.  Some of the
    recent press publicizing these options doubtless is more
    negotiating strategy than reality.  Brazil's ethanol
    supplies, for example, already are strained meeting the
    domestic demand for automotive fuel, and would not serve as a
    serious alternative for thermal power generation.
    Development of the Santos basin, while promising, is likely
    to take longer to yield significant quantities of gas than
    Petrobras posits.  Brazil does, however, have sufficient oil
    should industry need to convert from gas to another fuel.
    Most importantly, there is little doubt that the GoB and
    Petrobras have decided on a gas self-sufficiency strategy and
    will move consistently in that direction.  This will have
    repercussions not only for Bolivia, but for any other
    prospective suppliers.

    ¶12. (U) This cable was coordinated with AmEmbassy Brasilia.

    ATKINS

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