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### Viewing cable 07BRASILIA313, VENEZUELA'S GROWING MILITARY PROWESS AND CLAIMS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07BRASILIA313 | 2007-02-23 14:39 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Brasilia

`

    VZCZCXRO6074
    RR RUEHRG
    DE RUEHBR #0313/01 0541439
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 231439Z FEB 07
    FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8170
    INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 5955
    RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 4117
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 4605
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3610
    RUEHGE/AMEMBASSY GEORGETOWN 1222
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 5182
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 3368
    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 6760
    RUEHPO/AMEMBASSY PARAMARIBO 1251
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 2142
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 6101
    RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 6273
    RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 3907
    RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 9267
    RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 0015
    RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 000313

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PREL BR XM SCUL
    SUBJECT: VENEZUELA'S GROWING MILITARY PROWESS AND CLAIMS
    AGAINST GUYANA WORRY FORMER BRAZILIAN PRESIDENT SARNEY

    REF: 06 BRASILIA 2411

    ¶1.  (SBU)  Summary.  Ambassador Sobel gave a dinner on
    February 13 for veteran political figures that drew out
    opinions on political reform, relations with the U.S., party
    behavior, and grave concerns about a perceived growing menace
    from Venezuela.  Guests included a former president; the
    president of the Senate and past justice minister; the
    communications minister; a past president of the Supreme
    Court, past justice minister and probable next leader of
    Brazil's largest political party; the chairman of the Senate
    committee on the Constitution, Citizenship and Justice; and a
    prominent Green Party politician.  Former president Jose
    Sarney spoke at length about Brazil's security posture in the
    region and his preoccupation over the threat of instability
    along the northern border from irredentist Venezuelan claims
    against Guyana.  Sarney dismissed any cross-border threat
    from Bolivia.  Several participants urged the USG to increase
    youth, educational, and international visitor exchanges with
    Brazil.  They underscored the importance of personal contacts
    in fortifying the bilateral relationship.  End summary.

    Political reform

    ¶2.  (SBU) Ambassador Sobel asked about the outlook for reform
    in Brazil during the current congress (2007-2011).  Senate
    president Renan Calheiros implied the system needed to be
    reformed by noting that Brazil's system of uninominal
    elections is now almost unique in the world.  Deputy Sarney
    Filho criticized the system for its undesirable effect of
    making candidates from the same party adversaries at election
    time, since they have to run not only against other parties'
    candidates, but against their own party colleagues to try to
    get a large enough percentage of the vote to be elected.

    ¶3.  (SBU) Ambassador asked Calheiros what major reforms could
    also be accomplished now.  Calheiros replied that earlier
    that day (February 13) the Senate had approved legislation to
    improve business conditions and the environment, and the
    government had presented a reform program.  This was a first
    step, he said.  He said that an ongoing problem is that a
    project in one house of congress may not find receptivity in
    the other house.  Reform is needed, he said, "to guarantee
    the country."  He added that he hopes to see the passage of
    new laws on regulatory agencies and the use of provisional
    measures (MPs).  His mention of MPs generated an animated
    discussion around the table about what was wrong with
    provisional measures and why they should be abolished.
    (Note: A provisional measure is issued by the president, has
    the force of law, but Congress can immediately strike it
    down.  If an MP is not approved or rejecte within 45 days,
    Congress is forced to vote on the MP and nothing else can be
    considered.  For this reason, MPs can cause legislative
    gridlock until Congress acts, while in the meantime the MP
    has force of law.  If no action is taken within four months
    the MP expires, but the president can reissue it in the next
    legislatve session.  End note.)  Calheiros also said there
    is much work to do on the budget, as well as on he
    consolidation of laws.  He repeated the familar complaint
    that some laws are passed, but do no "take" (nao pegam).
    Continuing to point out how much work the Congress has before
    it, Calheiros said over 200 supplemental laws are waiting to
    be voted on by Congress.

    ¶4.  (SBU) Ambassador Sobel offered to try to bring past
    chairmen of our political parties to consult on political
    reform, provided the Brazilians could develop an agenda to
    put their talents to work.  Sen. Sarney replied that he would
    be willing to help organize such a visit.  The Ambassador
    also said he was interested in the Senate and Chamber of
    Deputies television stations, and offered to bring U.S.
    leaders to discuss how best to use them.  The Ambassador said
    he would also like to invite U.S. Supreme Court justices to

    BRASILIA 00000313  002 OF 003

    Brazil.  Guests agreed this would be very useful.  Nelson
    Jobim also said Brazilians need contacts in the U.S.
    Congress.

    More Exchanges, Please

    ¶5.  (SBU) Senator Jose Sarney, a former president of Brazil
    (1985-90), said that in spite of much public comment that the
    bilateral relationship is good, the missing element is
    personal contact.  He said ongoing personal contact between
    Brazilians and Americans has been lost.  He, Senator
    Magalhaes and Minister Costa praised USG exchange programs.
    Costa thought they no longer existed.  Ambassador said we
    still have an active exchange program and invited them to
    advise him of deserving candidates.  Sarney spoke highly of
    youth exchanges and recounted that he had sent his children
    and grandchildren on them to the U.S. and hosted a
    participant from the U.S.  Sarney Filho echoed the point and
    said his son is studying at Purdue University.  He said
    university exchanges are important.  There are many, many
    Asians studying at U.S. schools, he said, and asked why there
    are not more Brazilians.  Ambassador mentioned that while
    there are 100,000 Indians studying in the U.S. there are only
    6,000 Brazilians.  Ambassador noted he had discussed the
    subject with Education Minister Fernando Haddad.  Sarney,
    Magalhaes and Costa recalled that they had participated in a
    USG exchange for young leaders and it had had a great impact
    on them.

    More Engagement, Please

    ¶6.  (SBU) Ambassador Sobel asked where the USG could be of
    greatest help in terms of political reform.  Senator
    Magalhaes said Brazil needs more engagement (entrosamento) on
    the part of the USG.  He added that this would go a long way
    to avoiding unnecessary antipathy toward the U.S.

    Venezuelan Danger

    ¶7.  (SBU) Senator Sarney made a lengthy exposition on
    Brazilian history, including Brazil's historical admiration
    for the United States, the U.S. influence on figures such as
    Tiradentes and Ruy Barbosa, Brazil's preference for peace and
    democracy, and, in his view, Brazil's resultant aversion to
    hegemony in its foreign policy.  Ambassador said he gives
    Brazil much credit for its patience in the face of worrisome
    developments in Venezuela and Bolivia.  Sarney responded that
    Brazil does not want to interfere in others' affairs.
    Interference has a price to pay and Brazil does not want to
    pay that price, he explained.  Sarney continued by recalling
    that military regimes have historically liquidated many
    political classes, in some cases leaving only those who had
    managed to live clandestinely.  As a result, in Latin
    America, when the era of military dictatorships ended, the
    remaining political actors were mainly on the left.  In
    Brazil, he said, the country has the good fortune to have as
    its president now a worker from Sao Paulo, a major urban
    center.  Compare this, he said, with Bolivia, which has as
    its president a miner.  Sarney then turned to Venezuela.  He
    predicted that in the long run the current leaders will be
    gotten rid of and Venezuela will "go back to normal."  But in
    the meantime Venezuela is becoming a destabilizing military
    power.  He said he was especially concerned about Venezuela's
    irrendentist claims on Guyana's Essequibo region.  He said
    two thirds of Guyana is rich in diamonds and Chavez will
    cause trouble over an area of 170,000 square kilometers.
    Essequibo is hard for a bellicose soldier to resist, said
    Sarney, who predicted that conflict over the region was
    inevitable.  In that event, a burden will fall on Brazil's
    shoulders, he said.

    Venezuela, not Bolivia, Is the Threat

    BRASILIA 00000313  003 OF 003

    ¶8.  (SBU) Ambassador asked about Brazil's border with
    Bolivia.  Sarney said Bolivia would never present a danger to
    Brazilian sovereignty.  Returning immediately to Venezuela,
    Sarney said the scenario he described with Guyana is a
    realistic possibility.  Ambassador asked what it would take
    to get Brazil more engaged in Venezuela.  Sarney responded
    that Brazil must be careful and cannot spend the amount of
    money Venezuela does on foreign programs.  Chile has a
    respectable military because it had prepared itself for war
    with Argentina, while Brazil has not faced war for a hundred
    years, he opined.  (Note: Sarney must have meant a land war
    on Brazil's borders, since he omitted its participation in
    WWII, when its Expeditionary Force of 25,000 troops saw
    action in Europe.  End note.)  Brazil has no outstanding
    border issues, he continued.  "The military issue is the only
    one we have with Venezuela."  He mentioned having been shown
    shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall a document he
    described as a U.S. military paper that forecast only two
    possible major conflicts in the future in the Western
    Hemisphere: one in Central America, and another related to
    indigenous peoples in Brazil.  Brazil had to direct its
    military toward the north along the Amazon because of threats
    from that direction, such as Sendero Luminoso, according to
    Sarney.  If Venezuela becomes a military state it will create
    an imbalance and Brazil will have to safeguard its
    sovereignty, Sarney said.  But Brazil does not have the
    resources, and will have to rely on the NATO umbrella, he
    concluded.

    Jobim: Parties Fail to Set the Agenda

    ¶9.  (SBU) The Ambassador spoke in favor of reaching a
    bilateral investment treaty with Brazil.  Calheiros said the
    government would take steps to simplify conditions for small
    and medium enterprises.  Nelson Jobim, apparently replying
    more to Calheiros than the Ambassador, criticized the way
    parties relate to the government.  He said parties should
    establish policy lines and make their participation in
    government conditional on them, while as things are now,
    parties only demand posts but attach no policy baggage.  He
    said his own party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party
    (PMDB), does this.  Parties should establish the agenda for
    dialogue for the government, while now the government defines
    the agenda for dialogue with the Congress, in Jobim's view.
    Finally, he asked rhetorically when the PMDB had ever raised
    the matter of bilateral investment treaties.  Costa, also
    from the PMDB, replied that the Senate Foreign Relations and
    National Defense Committee still has many pending bills to
    review.

    ¶10.  (U) Participants:
    U.S.
    Ambassador Clifford Sobel
    Dale Prince, Political Officer (notetaker)

    Brazil
    Jose Sarney, Senator and former President
    Helio Costa, Minister of Communications
    Renan Calheiros, Senator, President of the Senate, and former
    Minister of Justice
    Jose Sarney Filho, Federal Deputy, Green Party
    Carlos Alberto Vieira, President of Safra Bank
    Antonio Carlos Magalhaes, Senator and Chairman of the
    Constitution, Citizenship and Justice Committee
    Nelson Jobim, former Supreme Court President and former
    Minister of Justice
    Rodrigo Gabsch, diplomatic adviser to Senator Sarney

    SOBEL

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