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### Viewing cable 06SAOPAULO935, Despite Sagging Poll Numbers, Alckmin Adviser Thinks

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06SAOPAULO935 | 2006-08-28 10:43 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Sao Paulo

`

    VZCZCXRO2737
    PP RUEHRG
    DE RUEHSO #0935/01 2401043
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    P 281043Z AUG 06
    FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5687
    INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6754
    RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 2747
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 2432
    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 2137
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 1854
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 2994
    RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 7387
    RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 3110
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
    RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2554
    RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAO PAULO 000935

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    STATE PASS USTR FOR MSULLIVAN
    STATE PASS EXIMBANK
    STATE PASS OPIC FOR MORONESE, RIVERA, MERVENNE
    NSC FOR FEARS
    USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWAR D
    USDOC FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/WH/SHUPKA
    TREASURY FOR OASIA, DAS LEE AND DDOUGLASS
    DOL FOR ILAB MMITTELHAUSER
    SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
    USAID/W FOR LAC/AA

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON BR
    SUBJECT: Despite Sagging Poll Numbers, Alckmin Adviser Thinks
    Ex-Governor Can Still Beat Lula

    SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY

    -------
    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1.  (SBU) Fernando Braga, Sao Paulo State Secretary for Economy and
    Planning, argued that former Governor Geraldo Alckmin will make it
    to the second round of the presidential election, where he will take
    advantage of Lula's high negative numbers in the polls to "win in
    the last five minutes."  He regretted that the country's largest
    media enterprise, Rede Globo, was so partial to the Lula
    administration, which put Alckmin at a serious disadvantage.
    Nevertheless, Braga believed the voters would respond to Alckmin's
    television advertising.  A long-time economic adviser to the former
    Governor, Braga described Alckmin as someone who has no leisure
    activity, hobby, or recreation, and spent all his "down time"
    preparing for the next event.  According to Braga, Alckmin's top
    foreign affairs adviser is former Ambassador Sergio Amaral.  On the
    economic side, Alckmin is still consulting with economists from
    various schools of thought but not allowing any individual to emerge
    as his senior economic guru or identifying himself with any one
    philosophy.  END SUMMARY.

    ¶2.  (SBU) Consul General (CG) and Poloff met recently with Fernando
    Carvalho Braga, Sao Paulo State Secretary for Economy and Planning.
    Prior to his appointment in April by Governor Claudio Lembo, Braga
    had served Governor Alckmin for many years as an economic advisor
    with expertise in privatization and infrastructure.  He predicted,
    as have other Alckmin advisers, that the former Governor will rise
    in the polls between now and election day as voters begin to respond
    to his government-subsidized radio and television advertising.
    Alckmin, he said, comes across powerfully on TV, and advanced in the
    polls in June thanks to TV coverage, only to fall back again in
    July.  The goal at this stage, he asserted, isn't to come in first
    but simply to ensure a second round in which Alckmin will have a
    good chance due to Lula's high rejection rate.

    ¶3.  (SBU) Commenting on Alckmin's personal style, Braga remarked
    that the former Governor has no leisure activity or hobby or
    preferred means of recreation, but rather devoted all his time and
    energy to work, whether as Governor or presidential candidate.  He
    dedicated enormous amounts of time preparing for the August 14
    presidential debate, to the point that he "knew everything about
    every subject."  (COMMENT: Given that President Lula opted not to
    participate in the debate, it is unclear how much Alckmin's
    exhaustive preparation advanced his chances. END COMMENT.)

    -----------------
    REGIONAL POLITICS
    -----------------

    ¶4.  (SBU) Braga predicted that though Lula will do well in the
    northeast, he will not win there by the overwhelming margins
    suggested by current polls.  His allies running for state offices in
    the northeast will deliver a lot of votes for him.  Lula's Workers'
    Party (PT), on the other hand, is not strong at the state levels; it
    currently controls only three governorships and may have even less
    after the elections.  To compensate, the PT tends to be more active
    at the municipal level.  But even the advantage Lula enjoys among
    poor voters due to programs like "Bolsa Familia" (the direct public
    assistance program for poor families) is not as clear-cut as many
    people think, Braga said.  When new job-generating infrastructure
    projects require employees to be formally registered, the poor get
    some jobs but then become ineligible to receive "Bolsa Familia"
    benefits.

    SAO PAULO 00000935  002 OF 003

    ¶5.  (SBU) Alckmin had begun to do a little better in  southern Minas
    Gerais, Braga said, the part of the state that is closest to and
    most influenced by Sao Paulo state.  However, much of Minas Gerais
    is geographically and demographically similar to its neighbor to the
    northeast, Bahia, and is heavily influenced by that state.  Given
    that former President Itamar Franco, a prominent "Mineiro,"
    (resident of Minas) had recently come out for Alckmin, Braga thought
    Alckmin's Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) colleague,
    Governor Aecio Neves, would be compelled to campaign more
    strenuously for Alckmin.  (COMMENT: Neves, who in his bid for
    re-election holds an amazing 62-point lead in the latest polls, is
    widely believed to prefer that Lula defeat Alckmin because it will
    help make Neves the PSDB's obvious presidential candidate in 2010.
    How seriously he would be embarrassed if Lula carried his home state
    is unclear.  Last week, in a high-profile interview with leading
    daily "Folha de Sao Paulo," he criticized the "hegemony of Sao Paulo
    state" in national politics, complaining that Brazil's most populous
    state has for years enjoyed undue influence on the national
    political scene to the detriment of other states and the nation as a
    whole.  Though neither was born in Sao Paulo, both former president
    Fernando Henrique Cardoso (FHC) and President Lula have been
    identified with Sao Paulo for their entire political careers;
    Alckmin, of course, is a native "Paulista" from the state's
    interior.  END COMMENT.)

    ¶6.  (SBU) The strategy of the opposition coalition, Braga said, was
    to bring the political corruption issue to voters' attention but not
    to harp on it to the exclusion of other issues.  Many voters from
    the lower classes, he opined, are much more interested in their
    economic well-being, and any appeal to cleaner government must be
    accompanied by programs that will generate jobs and lead to salary
    increases.

    ¶7.  (SBU) Braga lamented the power of "Rede Globo," the nation's
    largest media enterprise, to define the terms of public debate.
    Certain elements of the Globo enterprise enjoyed journalistic
    independence, he said, citing the high-profile "National Journal"
    nightly TV news program and the "Globo" newspapers.  However, on the
    whole, the conglomerate had done very well under Lula, reducing its
    large debts thanks in large part to massive advertising revenues
    from government agencies and state-owned companies.  Whereas founder
    Roberto Marinho had begun as a journalist, his sons, who now control
    the company, are all business entrepreneurs and are much more
    interested in the company's commercial interests.  Unless something
    happens to make Alckmin a more likely winner, "Rede Globo" will
    continue to tilt its coverage in Lula's favor, he asserted.

    ----------------------------
    FOREIGN POLICY AND ECONOMICS
    ----------------------------

    ¶8.  (SBU) Asked about major players in the Alckmin campaign, Braga
    said that former Ambassador Sergio Amaral was far and away the most
    important advisor on foreign policy, though former Ambassador Rubens
    Barbosa also remains influential.  (Many PSDB insiders have told us
    privately that Amaral would be the next Foreign Minister if Alckmin
    were to win the election.)  There is apparently no one person in
    charge of economic policy.  Alckmin is listening to PSDB economists
    from various schools - the Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro,
    which tends to be more orthodox; the University of Campinas, home of
    "developmentalist" economists; and from the University of Sao Paulo
    and the Getulio Vargas Foundation, which Braga characterized as
    "hybrids."  However, Alckmin has been careful not to let any one
    individual emerge as a leading candidate for Finance Minister nor to
    identify his own policy preference too clearly, though Braga
    predicts a President Alckmin would not be "too tied up in
    orthodoxy."  Rather, he has attempted to keep his balance with many

    SAO PAULO 00000935  003 OF 003

    economists of differing views all in the boat, trying to "respect
    the degrees of vanity" of each.

    -------
    COMMENT
    -------

    ¶9.  (SBU) People close to Alckmin and his campaign continue to
    assert that the intense media exposure of the last five weeks of the
    campaign will enable Alckmin to surge while Lula, who they believe
    has already achieved his ceiling, will fade.  Such a scenario
    appears increasingly unlikely, though Alckmin might still be able to
    do well enough to force a second round.  (Ironically, leftist
    candidate Heloisa Helena, formerly of the PT, might be able deny
    Lula a first round victory, if she can get about 15 percent of the
    vote.)  It's not clear at this point whether opposition supporters
    are now engaged in wishful thinking and fantasy or whether they are
    banking on some as yet undefined "October surprise" to tilt the
    balance against Lula in the second round.  END COMMENT.

    ¶10.  (SBU) This cable was cleared/coordinated with Embassy
    Brasilia.

    MCMULLEN

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