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### Viewing cable 08BUENOSAIRES1495, Argentina: Global Crisis Threatens Export Growth, Trade

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08BUENOSAIRES1495 | 2008-10-30 17:21 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Buenos Aires

`

    VZCZCXYZ0003
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHBU #1495/01 3041721
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 301721Z OCT 08 ZDK
    FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2373
    RUCNMER/MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE

` `

    UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001495

    USDOC FOR 4321/ITA/MAC/OLAC/PEACHER

    SIPDIS
    SENSITIVE

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ETRD ECON EAGR AR BR
    SUBJECT: Argentina: Global Crisis Threatens Export Growth, Trade
    Surplus

    Reftels: A. Buenos Aires 1389
             ¶B. Buenos Aires 1374
             ¶C. Buenos Aires 1415

    Summary
    -------

    ¶1. (SBU) Argentina's strong goods export performance in the
    aftermath of the 2001/02 financial crisis has stalled, a victim of
    plunging world commodity prices and slower global growth
    projections.  From a projected 2008 trade surplus in the $12 billion
    range, local economists now see the 2009 surplus dropping to under
    $6 billion - and that assumes current commodity price levels are
    sustained.  Maintaining a substantial trade surplus has been a
    pillar of the GoA's economic model because it has supported the
    accumulation of dollar reserves, suits the mercantilist and
    protectionist mindset of current decision-makers, and plays well
    domestically with the powerful and employment-generating industrial
    sector.  A GoA concerned that key trading partners' substantial
    devaluations will harm Argentina's relative competitiveness (the
    Brazilian real has dropped 21% vis the peso since August 7) and
    sensitive to industrialists' calls to protect domestic production
    and employment has introduced a variety of non-tariff barriers and
    allowed a managed peso depreciation of over 10% vis the dollar over
    the past six weeks.  Keeping exports up is also important to the GoA
    because a significant share of proprietary federal revenues cmes
    from export tariffs, especially on agricultural commodities.
    Agricultural and industrial exports, and the tax revenues they
    generate, are front and center in the GoA policy response to the
    financial crisis.  End Summary.

    Argentina a Beneficiary of Soaring Commodity Prices
    --------------------------------------------- ------

    ¶2. (SBU) Between 2002 and 2007, the value of total annual Argentine
    goods exports more than doubled from US$26 billion to $56 billion.
    During this same period, agricultural exports were the star
    performer, jumping 140% from $12 billion to $28 billion, and rising
    from 46% to 51% of total exports.  As a consequence, Argentina
    maintained a healthy overall trade surplus, reaching $11.1 billion
    in 2007, after a record of $12.4 billion in 2006.

    ¶3. (SBU) Argentina's global exports in 2007 totaled $55.9 billion, a
    20% increase y-o-y.  According to official GoA statistics agency
    INDEC, this jump was driven by a 12% increase in the price of
    exported goods and an 8% rise in quantity of goods exported.  22% of
    2007 exports by value were "primary products" led by cereals,
    oilseeds, copper, fresh fruit and fish, which saw a 23% price
    increase, as well as an 18% quantity increase.  Processed
    agricultural goods, at 35% the largest category of Argentine
    exports, saw a 22% price increase but only a 3% increase in
    quantity.

    ¶4. (SBU) The y-o-y price increase trend was even more pronounced
    during the first eight months of 2008.  Within overall export
    increases of 34% in price and 4% in quantity (and 39% in total
    value), primary product prices rose 49% while quantities increased
    only 4%, accounting for a 55% total increase in value.  The value of
    processed agricultural goods exports rose 40%, thanks to a 49% price
    increase, which more than offset a 6% quantity decrease (presumably
    at least partly caused by the extended agricultural strike).

    Global Weakening and Commodity Price Plunge Bites
    --------------------------------------------- ----

    ¶5. (SBU) In recent months, due in large part to the dramatic
    slowdown in global growth forecasts, global commodity prices for
    Argentina's primary exports have fallen precipitously.  The
    Argentine Central Bank (BCRA) tracks a commodity price index which
    includes soy, wheat, corn, petroleum, steel, aluminum, beef and
    copper, weighted by share of total Argentine exports.  Together,
    these commodities represent 40.5% of 2007 Argentine exports. After
    peaking in June, up 67% y-o-y in dollar terms, the index fell over
    18% by end-September, though the index remained 18% higher than in
    September 2007.  Prices for soy, Argentina's top export and emblem
    of Argentina's efficient agricultural growth, dropped 39% from a
    July 2008 high of $588 per metric ton to $360 as of October 29.

    ¶6. (SBU) As a consequence, private analysts are reducing their
    projections of Argentina's trade surplus in 2009.  According to the
    2009 budget presented by the GoA to the Argentine Congress September
    15 (Ref A), total 2008 exports were estimated at $73.5 billion, a
    32% increase over 2007, with a trade surplus of $12.2 billion.  2009
    budget exports were projected to be $78.3 billion, and the surplus
    $12.0 billion.  Some private estimates are less optimistic.  For
    example, internationally known Argentine economist Miguel Angel
    Broda has sharply reduced his export performance estimates for 2009.
     Broda's "optimistic" estimate for 2009 shows exports of $73.4
    billion and a trade surplus of only $5.9 billion, roughly half the

    GoA's estimate.  Broda's "pessimistic" outlook foresees exports of
    $65.2 billion - and a net trade deficit of $1.2 billion, which would
    be Argentina's first trade deficit since 2001.  HSBC's Chief
    Economist predicts the 2009 trade surplus will be in the range of
    $5-6 billion, less than half his estimate from earlier this year.

    ¶7. (SBU) Credit Suisse, which as recently as September estimated
    that the 2008 current account surplus would be $5.2 billion (after
    $7.3 billion in 2007) and 2009 surplus at $2.6 billion, downgraded
    the latter estimate to $1.5 billion.  The global crisis was the
    driver behind this downgrade, as the bank cited both lower commodity
    prices and lower foreign demand for non-commodities as reasons that
    Argentina would have "nearly zero growth in the dollar value of
    total exports."  Local think-tank FIEL is even more pessimistic,
    projecting a 2009 current account surplus of just $800 million in
    ¶2009.

    Non-Transparent Budget Trade Surplus Estimates
    --------------------------------------------- -

    ¶8. (SBU) Commodity price assumptions are not explicitly stated in
    GoA budgets.  However, local business daily Ambito Financiero quotes
    a Ministry of Economy official involved in the budget's formulation
    as saying the assumed price for raw soybeans would average $420 per
    ton in 2009.  As of October 22, the price of soybeans stood at
    $340/ton - 19% lower.  In 2007, Argentina exported 26 million tons
    of raw soybeans.  The $80 price drop, with the same quantity of
    exports (though soy exports are predicted to be higher in 2009 than
    in 2007), translates into a drop of $2.1 billion in export value.
    The 19% drop, if applied to all commodities in the BCRA index, would
    result in a loss of $5.6 billion of exports - the equivalent of 47%
    of the trade surplus estimated in the official GoA budget.

    ¶9. (SBU) According to Embassy Economy Ministry contacts, budget
    estimates are made at a fairly high level of government, without
    technocrat-level consultations.  Adrian Makuc, National Director of
    Trade Policy in the Ministry of Economy, told Econoff October 16
    that, while his office used to have input into the trade numbers
    used in the budget, "Now I read about them in the paper, just like
    you."  When asked about the possibility of the GoA presenting a
    revised budget to Congress, rather than continuing to seek approval
    of the one already presented, he added, "There seems to be more
    concern (within the GoA) about getting the budget passed than
    correcting the numbers."

    Impact of Peso Depreciation on 2009 Trade Balance
    --------------------------------------------- ----

    ¶10. (SBU) According to INDEC, industrial products represented 31% of
    export value in 2007 - roughly half of the 57% of export value
    contributed by primary commodities (excluding hydrocarbons and
    precious metals) and processed agricultural goods.  With the run-up
    in global commodity prices, in the first eight months of 2008,
    industrial products' share of the value of exports fell to 29%,
    while commodities and processed agricultural goods rose to 60%.
    Concerns over the increasing relative strength of the Argentine peso
    against major trading partner currencies, most notably Brazil's real
    (Ref B) - have ed to calls by manufacturers for an immediate and
    substantial peso devaluation to maintain competitiveness.  The
    Central Bank has managed an over 10% devaluation of the peso over
    the past six weeks from 3.05 to 3.38 (as of October 27).  Local
    analysts agree that, all other things equal, a devalued peso should
    stimulate additional primary commodity export production and so
    support Argentina's trade balance on the margin.

    Note: The budget assumed an average 2008 exchange rate of 3.19 pesos
    per dollar (through October 16, the ytd average was 3.11 according
    to the BCRA), and 3.34 in 2009.  With Cabinet Chief Sergio Massa
    announcing expectations of the exchange reaching 3.35 by the end of
    2008, and presumably even lower in 2009, it appears to be an
    admission by the GoA that the exchange rate and projected trade
    surplus included in the 2009 budget cannot both be achieved.  End
    note.

    Comment
    -------

    ¶11. (SBU) Maintaining a large trade surplus has been a pillar of the
    GoA's economic "model", partly because it suits the mercantilist and
    protectionist mindset of its current decision-makers, but also
    because it plays well domestically to big industry, a traditional
    foundation of Peronist support in Argentina.  A GoA concerned that
    trading partners' substantial devaluations imperil its relative
    competitiveness (Brazil's real has fallen 21% vis the peso since
    August 7) and sensitive to industrialists' calls to protect domestic
    production and employment has introduced a variety of protectionist
    non-tariff barriers (Ref C) and has allowed a managed peso
    depreciation of over 10% vis the dollar over the past six weeks.
    Countervailing arguments that a peso devaluation is potentially

    inflationary have been discounted in light of a dramatic drop in
    domestic growth projections:  2009 GDP forecasts have been
    progressively lowered from 6-7% just six months ago to the 1-2%
    range today, with some economists now projecting recession.  Keeping
    exports up is also important to the GoA because a significant share
    of proprietary federal revenues not automatically shared with
    provinces comes from export taxes, especially on agricultural
    commodities.  Trade flows - agricultural and industrial - and the
    tax revenues those export flows create, are front and center in the
    GoA trade policy response to the financial crisis.

    WAYNE

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