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### Viewing cable 06BRASILIA24, BRAZIL ADOPTS WAIT AND SEE ATTITUDE REGARDING

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06BRASILIA24 | 2006-01-04 19:07 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Brasilia

`

    VZCZCXRO2651
    PP RUEHRG
    DE RUEHBR #0024/01 0041907
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    P 041907Z JAN 06
    FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4091
    INFO RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO 6018
    RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 1261
    RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 4117
    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 5953
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 3676
    RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 5118
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 3068
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 2792
    RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 1684
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 5238
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    RUCPDO/USDOC WASHDC
    RHEBAAA/USDOE WASHDC

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRASILIA 000024

    SIPDIS

    NSC FOR CRONIN
    STATE PASS USTR FOR MSULLIVAN
    TREASURY FOR OASIA - DAS LEE AND FPARODI
    STATE PASS TO FED BOARD OF GOVERNORS FOR ROBITAILLE
    USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWAR D
    USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USCS/OIO/WH/RD/DDEVITO/DANDERSON/EOL SON
    AID/W FOR LAC/SA
    DOE FOR SLADISLAW

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ENRG EPET PREL EFIN BR
    SUBJECT: BRAZIL ADOPTS WAIT AND SEE ATTITUDE REGARDING
    BOLIVIAN ENERGY POLICY

    REF:  A) 2005 BRASILIA 1503, B) 2005 BRASILIA 943, C) 2005
    SAO PAULO 721

    ¶1. (U) This cable was coordinated with AmConsulate Rio de
    Janeiro.

    ¶2. (SBU) Summary. In recent discussions with Embassy
    officials, Ministry of Mines and Energy officials told us
    that Brazil, for various reasons, is adopting a wait and see
    attitude on the Bolivian energy situation in the wake of the
    victory of Bolivian President-elect Morales.  While the Lula
    Administration would like to be supportive of Morales, a
    fellow leftist, at the same time it worries about the loss
    of Petrobras' massive investment in Bolivia and reliability
    of natural gas exports from that country.  With the holiday
    period intervening, only now are high-level Brazilian
    policymakers beginning to seriously consider the Bolivian
    situation.  End Summary.

    ¶3. (SBU) In the wake of the victory of President-elect
    Morales in last month's Bolivian elections, Brazilian
    energy sector policymakers are anxiously waiting to see what
    develops on their western front.  On January 3, Ministry of
    Mines and Energy (MME) International Affairs Advisor Rubem
    Barbosa told Econoffs that the GOB has three (hopefully not
    inconsistent) objectives with respect to the new
    government's energy policy.  First, given the intense
    turmoil in Bolivia over the past few years, the GOB wants to
    be as supportive as possible to the new Morales-led
    government.  When Lula met with then-presidential candidate
    Morales in Brasilia in late 2005, Barbosa noted, the latter
    had emerged from that session declaring that if elected he
    would seek to buy out/nationalize Petrobras operations in
    Bolivia.  If that was what Morales wanted, Barbosa
    continued, then the Government of Brazil would respect his
    wishes.  Barbosa thought that, so far, President-elect
    Morales has been somewhat restrained regarding his
    statements on energy policy, adding that this could easily
    change as Morales' radical supporters began to demand quick
    results.

    ¶4. (SBU) Second, Barbosa stated, Brazil also has a key
    interest in defending Petrobras' exploration, refinery, and
    distribution assets; with US$1.6 billion invested in
    Bolivia, Petrobras represents more than 15% of the country's
    GDP and 20% of the tax base.  (Comment:  In his remarks to
    us, Barbosa did not address the apparent contradiction
    between policy goals one and two.  End Comment.)  Thirdly,
    Barbosa noted, Brazil seeks to ensure continued access to
    Bolivian natural gas exports to meet domestic demand.
    Currently, Brazil is importing 23 billion cubic meters of
    gas per day through the pipeline pursuant to its take or pay
    contract.  Given burgeoning domestic demand, MME officials
    would like this total to rise to 30 billion by the end of
    2006, at which point (assuming Bolivia was willing) the two
    sides would negotiate planned investments to expand pipeline
    capacity.  Notwithstanding all the recent instability in
    Bolivia, that country, Barbosa emphasized, has traditionally
    been a reliable supplier and has not restricted the flow of
    gas to Brazil - something that cannot be said of the
    Russians with respect to Ukraine or even Argentina with
    respect to Brazil.

    ¶5. (SBU) Barbosa noted that several factors complicate the
    Ministry's ability to forge a coherent Bolivia policy.
    First, no one really knew what Morales's bottom line was.
    Second, with the principal Ministries (Foreign Affairs, MME,

    BRASILIA 00000024  002 OF 002

    etc.) in recess from December 18 to early January, the
    Brazilian interagency process had barely begun to deal with
    this issue.  For instance, while Minister of Mines and
    Energy Rondeau was being considered to represent Brazil at
    the January 22 Morales inauguration, Lula could well end up
    selecting someone else.  Similarly, no one knew what
    significance (if any) there was to Cuba being the first stop
    on President-elect Morales' multi-country trip abroad -- and
    Brazil the last.  Indeed, there had been no announcement
    from the Brazilian side regarding the Morales visit, Barbosa
    noted, possibly because so many decisionmakers were either
    on leave or out of the country.  Finally, Barbosa observed
    that Brazilian policymaking was further complicated by the
    division between Petrobras and the Ministry.  Petrobras
    acted in furtherance of its own commercial interests, he
    said, while the Brazilian government took a more policy-
    oriented role.  These two perspectives may not necessarily
    lead to the same result.

    ¶6. (SBU) Comment.  Barbosa, a career diplomat detailed to
    MFA, tiptoed around what others here have enunciated more
    clearly:  the difficulty of incorporating the independent-
    minded Petrobras into Brazilian government decisionmaking.
    For its part, Petrobras is keeping a low public profile on
    Bolivia issues and is talking neither to the U.S. Mission
    nor the press.  One explanation for this, offered to
    Consulate Rio by the Chief Economist at the industrial giant
    CVRD, is that Petrobras officials understand the delicate
    nature of the situation and are simply acting with
    diplomacy.  An alternative view is that Petrobras now
    realizes that, whether egged on by Brasilia or not, it may
    have erred in sinking so much investment into a country with
    such striking economic, social, and political disparities as
    Bolivia.

    ¶7. (SBU) Comment continued.  The Brazilian government is
    caught in between a rock and a hard place with no mountain-
    climbing equipment in sight.  Anxious to promote greater
    South American integration (led, of course, by Brazil), from
    a political perspective Lula would like to be as solicitous
    as possible to Morales, even if it means accepting
    nationalization -- with something approaching market
    compensation -- of Petrobras' assets.  However, equally
    aware that the Brazilian economy relies heavily upon
    continued access to Bolivian natural gas (at least in the
    short-term, until Brazil's Campos basin is fully developed,
    circa 2010 at the earliest), the Brazilian government
    realizes that it may have to play hardball.  If Bolivia is
    willing (and capable) of agreeing to a commercial solution
    to both the buy-out/nationalization and gas supply issue
    whereby all remains the same but the Brazilians just end up
    paying more, then this dispute is one that can be resolved.
    If that is not the case, then Brazil is in for some very
    interesting, but possibly politically and financially
    painful, times ahead.

    CHICOLA

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