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### Viewing cable 06BRATISLAVA613, TRANSPETROL: SLOVAKIA FEELS PRESSURE FROM ITS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06BRATISLAVA613 | 2006-07-28 06:00 | 2011-06-26 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Bratislava
Appears in these articles: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/05/16/114269/wikileaks-cables-show-oil-a-major.html

`

    VZCZCXRO3548
    PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
    DE RUEHSL #0613/01 2090600
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 280600Z JUL 06
    FM AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0119
    INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
    RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY 0588
    RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW PRIORITY 3316
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
    RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC PRIORITY
    RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHDC PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRATISLAVA 000613

    SIPDIS

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2016
    TAGS: ENRG ECON EPET PREL PGOV LO RS
    SUBJECT: TRANSPETROL: SLOVAKIA FEELS PRESSURE FROM ITS
    RUSSIAN BROTHER

    Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe Vallee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

    ¶1. (C) Summary.  The new Slovak government feels under
    increasing pressure to strike a deal with a Russian firm on
    Transpetrol before Yukos International initiates bankruptcy
    proceedings, now scheduled to begin on August 10.  On July
    25, the same day that Yukos creditors decided to commence
    bankruptcy proceedings, the Slovak Ministers of Economy and
    Foreign Affairs traveled to Russia to negotiate with Yukos,
    Russneft and Gazprom.  The Minister of Economy met with
    Ambassador Vallee on July 27, and gave the impression that he
    believed he held a weak hand, and would have to give up his
    plans to buy back Yukos shares in order to achieve other
    objectives.  On further review, we believe that the Minister
    is giving the Russian position too much credit, and may be on
    the verge of making an unnecessary mistake.  End Summary.

    The Yukos Bankruptcy: What Does It Mean?
    ----------------------------------------

    ¶2. (SBU) On July 25 in Moscow, Yukos International creditors
    rejected the company's proposed recovery plan since it could
    not repay its debts in the time alloted by law.  In the
    process, the Russian court valued the company's after-tax
    assets at $15.4 billion, less than half of what Yukos' legal
    team had claimed.  Steve Theede, CEO of Yukos, resigned from
    his post on July 20, saying that the process would be rigged
    by those intent on carving up the pieces of Yukos.  (Note:
    Theede's resignation is not official until August 1 -- it is
    unclear if he is still involved in company management during
    his last few days on the job.)  The decision clears the way
    for the Russian government to commence liquidation of Yukos
    assets, setting up the possibility of a firesale auction of
    Yukos assets to well-connected Russian oil interests.
    Liquidation proceedings, originally scheduled for August 1,
    were postponed (on July 27) by Russian courts until August 10.

    ¶3. (SBU) It is doubtful, however, that any Russian court
    decision concerning Yukos International is legally binding
    for Amsterdam-based Yukos Finance, which actually holds the
    49 percent share in Transpetrol.  According to legal analysts
    with close knowledge of the case, attached liens on
    Transpetrol shares and any disposition of Yukos Finance and
    its subsidiary Yukos International would need the approval
    the Dutch court.  Any decision taken by Russian courts on
    August 10 would be subject to further review by Dutch courts
    later this year.  Experienced energy analysts suggest that
    Russian firms are trying to pressure Slovakia to reach a deal
    before August 10 because the Russians are worried about what
    the Dutch court will decide, and want to play on the new
    Slovak government's fears that bankruptcy proceedings could
    leave them with nothing. (see paragraph 9)

    Off to Moscow, Enter Gazprom
    ----------------------------

    ¶4. (C) Also on July 25, Minister of Economy Lubomir Jahnatek
    and Minister of Foreign Affairs Jan Kubis traveled to Moscow
    to meet with Yukos leadership and various Russian businessmen
    and government officials.  These included separate meetings
    with Viktor Geraschenko, Yukos Chairman of the Board; Mikhail
    Gutseriyev, President of Russneft; representatives from
    Gazprom; and Sergei Narishkin, Minister of Economic
    Development.  Prior to these meetings, Jahnatek reportedly
    sent letters to all stating that any prospective partner
    needed to agree to the following four conditions and show the
    financial and technical capacity to make them possible:

    * Slovakia must re-acquire management rights to Transpetrol
    (Slovakia does not currently own management rights even
    though it holds a 51 percent share);
    * The existing pipeline must be extended to Schwechat
    refinery in Austria;
    * The pipeline must be made available for
    Odessa-Brody-Bratislava usage;
    * Pipeline capacity must be increased from 10.7 to 16 million
    tons per year.

    Jahnatek left Moscow the following morning without striking
    any deal.

    ¶5. (SBU) Meanwhile Yukos and Gazprom began serious
    negotiations.  On July 26, Yukos International
    representatives in London announced that they had rejected an
    offer from Gazprom to buy a significant percentage of the
    company's holdings, most notably Yukos' shares in Gazprom
    Neft and Arcticgas, but also Yukos' 49% stake in Transpetrol.
     Wire reports on July 27 indicate, however, that the two
    sides are close to reaching a deal, and some sources suggest
    they may have already done so.  According to one Russian
    newspaper, Gazprom valued Transpetrol at $105 million;
    another Russian newspaper said between $80 and $100 million.
    By comparison, in February Russneft had agreed to purchase
    Yukos' shares for $103 million before then-Minister of
    Economy Jirko Malcharek nullified the transaction.

    Perspectives from Slovak Government: Kondrot
    --------------------------------------------

    ¶6. (C) For additional perspective, Emboff met with Maros
    Kondrot, Chairman of Economic Committee in Parliament, on
    July 26.  Kondrot, like Jahnatek, is an ex-HZDS member who
    recently switched to SMER; the two are tied to many of the
    same financial backers and are quite close.  Kondrot believes
    that Slovakia must buy back its Transpetrol shares from
    Yukos, and sees it as an ominous sign that Jahnatek had
    traveled to Russia to meet not only with Yukos, but also with
    Russneft and Gazprom.  He said that Jahnatek was originally
    willing to go forward with the buyback plan negotiated by
    outgoing Minister Malcharek, but, after his personal lawyer
    had reviewed the documents, decided against this option and
    persuaded Fico to seek another solution.  Kondrot had not
    seen the exact details of the agreement but was told that the
    financial terms of the buy-back negotiated through Credit
    Suisse First Boston were unclear, suggesting that Slovakia
    would have only gained a back a fraction of the 49 percent
    share, with the rest going to private interests.  Based on
    Malcharek's close ties with Penta and Credit Suisse First
    Boston's long history with the company, it appears that Penta
    would have been the primary beneficiary.  Kondrot is
    presently in Ukraine, representing the Slovak government on
    the Transpetrol issue, where he is meeting with EU
    representatives.

    Perspectives from Slovak Government: Jahnatek
    ---------------------------------------------

    ¶7. (C) On the afternoon of July 27, Ambassador Vallee met
    with the new Minister of Economy, Mr. Jahnatek, for the first
    time.  Jahnatek opened by listing the four conditions listed
    in paragraph 4.  He seemed to be rather frazzled by the
    pressure of the situation, and convinced he had only a
    three-day timeframe to strike a deal before August 1 (now
    extended to August 10) in order to attain some of the
    conditions he listed.  The Minister seemed to believe that we
    were meeting with him primarily to make the case for the US
    investor M.E. Zukerman Investments (MEZI), which had written
    him on July 13 to express interest in purchasing the 49 share
    in Transpetrol.  Jahnatek told us that he had received
    investment counseling from a London-based firm on the
    capabilities of MEZI, and had decided that the company did
    have not a financial position that made it viable to
    undertake the pipeline investments that the GOS requires.

    ¶8. (C) At one point, after relaying USG goals of transparency
    and open access, Ambassador Vallee asked him why Slovakia
    couldn't just buy back the shares directly rather than work
    out a complicated deal with Credit Suisse or Gazprom.
    Jahnatek gave a resigned look and said, "It is a complicated
    situation.  Our Russian brother is sitting on the source."
    He spoke of the veto power that the Ministry of Economy holds
    on any Transpetrol deal, and lamented that this authority
    runs out on April 1, 2007.  He also spoke of Slovakia's
    nuclear fuel and gas contracts with Gazprom that run out in
    2008, and said that he didn't want to take any decisions that
    "maybe in six months would seem stupid."  In short, Jahnatek
    seemed resigned to the fact that he had a bad hand and that
    some sort of deal with Gazprom was inevitable and needed to
    be reached before liquidation procedures begin.

    Another View: Karol Hirman -- Why This Doesn't Make Sense
    --------------------------------------------- ------------

    ¶9. (C) We subsequently contacted leading Slovak energy expert
    Karol Hirman for perspective.  He believed that a lot of
    Jahnatek's reasoning was flimsy at best. Hirman noted that
    Russian firms have no incentive to give management rights
    back to Transpetrol, so the GOS is highly unlikely to receive
    such a concession from Gazprom.  Secondly, the Schwechat
    pipeline connection erquires the consent of Schwechat, which
    is not yet convinced of the economic wisdom of such a
    project.  Thirdly, unlike the situation in Ukraine, Slovakia
    holds gas and nuclear fuel contracts at world market rates,
    so Slovakia has little to gain by forfeiting Transpetrol
    shares to Gazprom in order to get a future deal on gas
    contracts.  Also, Hirman agreed with our views on the strong
    position of the Dutch courts, and added that, according to
    the terms of the 2002 Transpetrol-Yukos transaction, if Yukos
    shares are turned over to a third party in a bankruptcy
    procedure without approval by the Slovak government, then
    management control of Transpetrol must legally revert to
    Slovakia.  Hirman said that Jahnatek was panicking due to
    inexperience, and believed that the Russians had done a
    number on him with their pressure tactics.

    Next Step
    ---------

    ¶10. (C) In a scheduled meeting tomorrow morning with Foreign
    Minister Kubis, Emboff will press the point that Slovakia
    should not rush into a hasty deal with Russian firms on
    Transpetrol, and that a further review of options is needed.
    VALLEE

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