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### Viewing cable 05BRASILIA1503, BRAZIL: THE ENERGY MINISTRY'S INTERNATIONAL AGENDA

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
05BRASILIA1503 | 2005-06-03 16:05 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Brasilia

`

    This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 001503

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE

    STATE FOR WHA/BSC
    NSC FOR RENIGAR, BREIER, SHANNON
    TREASURY FOR OASIA - DAS LEE AND FPARODI
    DOE FOR SLADISLAW
    USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/JANDERSEN/ADRISCOLL/MWAR D
    USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USCS/OIO/WH/RD/DDEVITO/DANDERSON/EOL SON

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: ENRG EINV ECON PGOV BR
    SUBJECT: BRAZIL: THE ENERGY MINISTRY'S INTERNATIONAL AGENDA

    REFS: (A) Brasilia 1437, (B) Brasilia 0775, (C) Brasilia 1239

    ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. In a May 27 meeting, the Special Advisor to
    the Brazilian Minister of Mines and Energy, Rubem Barbosa, spoke
    to Brasilia EconOffs regarding some of the issues on the
    ministry's international agenda.  Barbosa voiced both concern
    and a "wait and see" attitude about the impact that Bolivia's
    instability may have on Brazil's natural gas supply.  He
    considered Argentina an "unreliable" supplier of natural gas,
    and opined that the troubled US-Venezuela relationship has led
    to improved Brazil-Venezuela relations.  He considers GOB
    engagement with Chavez, especially in the energy sector, as key.
    Barbosa said the GOB is still considering a possible roadshow to
    promote upcoming investments opportunities in the energy sector
    (such as the Seventh Round of petroleum blocks and the
    electricity energy auctions), but these plans have been shelved
    for now.  In light of Petrobras' continued increases in oil
    production, Barbosa expressed hope that Brazil may achieve its
    goal of oil self-sufficiency as early as December 2005.  End
    Summary.

    Natural Gas Supply: Bolivia vs. Argentina
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶2. (SBU) In a May 27 meeting, Special Advisor to the Minister of
    Mines and Energy, Rubem Antonio Correa Barbosa, told Brasilia
    EconOffs that the GOB is "worried" about the reliability of its
    natural gas supply from Bolivia, but it will have to make the
    best of the situation as Brazil is dependent on Bolivia for the
    short-term.  Despite Brazil's discovery of large natural gas
    reserves in the Santos Basin, he estimated that the soonest
    Brazil could replace Bolivian gas would be by the end of 2008,
    but more likely 2009.  Putting the best face on a bad situation,
    Barbosa expressed admiration that La Paz has continued to honor
    its gas contracts with Brazil despite Bolivia's serious internal
    turmoil.

    ¶3. (SBU) Barbosa confirmed that Bolivian officials were in
    Brasilia the weekend of May 21-22 to discuss natural gas issues.
    He said the GOB message was very clear on two points: the GOB is
    not planning to leave Bolivia, but it will also not invest any
    more money under the current conditions.  Noting that Petrobras
    had already invested US$1.5 billion in Bolivia, about 15% of
    that country's GDP, he opined that Bolivia needed Brazil just as
    much as Brazil needed Bolivia.  Still, while Brasilia has
    pursued regional energy cooperation and sought to support
    Bolivia during this difficult time, he said the Bolivians had
    reached the point of asking too much.  He summarized the MME
    policy towards Bolivia's natural gas supply as "wait and see."

    ¶4. (SBU) If the gas supply from Bolivia decreased and prices
    soared, Barbosa admitted that Brazil would face a serious
    problem.  However, he did not think that such a situation would
    lead to electricity shortages akin to the 2001 energy crisis.
    He noted that new hydro projects were being built and the
    country's national transmission network allowed authorities to
    transfer electricity where it was needed.  (This latter point is
    one of the key reasons why the drought in Southern Brazil
    earlier this year (Ref B) has not led to electricity
    brownouts/blackouts.)  In general, Barbosa saw Brazil as still
    only a "modest" consumer of natural gas, adding that it will
    take time and more investments for the sector to grow.  Although
    he considered it good that initiatives like natural gas use by
    cars were moving forward, he admitted that the automobile sector
    was only complementary; real growth in consumption would require
    industry use of natural gas.

    ¶5. (SBU) Finally, Barbosa characterized Argentina as an
    "unreliable" supplier of natural gas.  Because of increased
    consumption in Argentina, he said, Buenos Aires had reneged on
    commitments to sell gas to Brazil.  And while there have been
    discussions of connecting the Bolivia gas pipeline to Argentina
    and of constructing a pipeline that runs all the way to the
    Brazilian Northeast, he considered these ideas to be only paper
    dreams at this point.

    Chavez: Bad for US Relations, Good for Brazil
    ---------------------------------------------

    ¶6. (SBU) Barbosa noted that while Venezuela has historically
    always looked first to the US, that dynamic has changed with
    Chavez in power, observing that this change has been good for
    Brazil-Venezuela relations.  He said that Venezuela now feels
    more isolated and that Chavez is very much behind regional
    integration, primarily in the energy sector.  Despite Chavez's
    "defects," Barbosa (strictly protect) said, increased regional
    cooperation, including Petrosur (Ref A), could bear fruit.
    Barbosa considers Venezuela a stable energy supplier and that
    there could be more exchanges of energy between the two
    countries, noting that the extreme north of Brazil already buys
    energy from Venezuela.

    Hit the Road? Outreach to Energy Industry
    -----------------------------------------

    ¶7. (SBU) During World Bank and IMF meetings in Washington in
    April, the Minister of Mines and Energy, Dilma Rousseff,
    discussed with private sector officials the idea of an energy
    "roadshow" to tout upcoming investment opportunities in Brazil.
    Barbosa noted that the three places floated for the roadshow
    were New York City, Washington DC, and somewhere in Texas
    (probably Houston).  The MME was planning the trip primarily to
    promote the Seventh Round Auctions of Petroleum blocks
    (scheduled for October 2005), he continued, but would also
    consider including the electric energy auctions (likely to take
    place towards the end of 2005, see Ref C) if the timing was
    right.  The MME had originally planned to do the roadshow by the
    end of June, but Barbosa considered that unlikely.  He said that
    the roadshow idea in general has been put on hold because of the
    Minister's busy schedule and the earliest it could be held was
    September.  A Council of the Americas invitation to host such a
    presentation still stands, he added.

    ¶8. (SBU) In the meantime, Rousseff, Barbosa, and the MME
    Secretary of Petroleum participated in an energy sector

    SIPDIS
    conference in La Jolla, California sponsored by the Institute of
    the Americas.  The energy ministers from Chile and Colombia were
    also there, as well as the Secretary of Energy from Mexico and
    many other government representatives from Latin America.  On
    the Sunday afternoon before the conference, Barbosa said
    Minister Rousseff met with private sector representatives from
    CERA (an energy sector consulting firm), El Paso (a private
    energy company with investments in Brazil and an on-going
    dispute with Petrobras), Schlumberger (an international oilfield
    services company), Shell, and Exxon to discuss investment
    possibilities and doing business issues.

    Oil Self-Sufficiency Expected Soon
    ----------------------------------

    ¶9. (SBU) Barbosa reiterated Brazil's long-standing goal of
    achieving oil self-sufficiency, and noted that Petrobras'
    continued increases in production may make that goal a reality
    sooner than later.  On May 12, Petrobras pumped 1,819,604
    barrels, surpassing its previous one-day production record.
    Although the official goal is to reach self-sufficiency during
    2006, Barbosa said he would not be surprised if Brazil met its
    goal as early as December 2005.  Barbosa observed that it had
    taken years of hard work for Brazil to reach that one-day (i.e.,
    May 12) of "self-sufficiency" (in the sense that its oil
    production 100% met its consumption).  Indeed, Petrobras'
    monthly production has been picking up lately.  In May,
    Petrobras' average monthly production was 1,729,000 barrels per
    day, a record-breaking amount and a 21.1% increase from May
    ¶2004.  Although Brazil does not possess the known oil resources
    of neighboring countries such as Argentina, Colombia, and
    Venezuela, Barbosa opined that successful investment -- not just
    in exploration and production, but in conservation (i.e.,
    ethanol) as well -- had helped Brazil reduce its dependence on
    imports.

    DANILOVICH

`