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### Viewing cable 07HELSINKI689, SCENESETTER: PDAS VOLKER'S SEPT. 13-15 VISIT TO

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
07HELSINKI689 | 2007-09-07 13:24 | 2011-04-24 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Helsinki

`

    VZCZCXYZ0008
    RR RUEHWEB

    DE RUEHHE #0689/01 2501324
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    R 071324Z SEP 07
    FM AMEMBASSY HELSINKI
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3730
    INFO RUEHTL/AMEMBASSY TALLINN 4186
    RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 0949

` `

    UNCLAS HELSINKI 000689

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/MELISSA BUCK AND EUR/NB KEITH ANDERTON
    AND KATIE GARRY

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: FI PREL PGOV MARR
    SUBJECT: SCENESETTER: PDAS VOLKER'S SEPT. 13-15 VISIT TO
    HELSINKI

    REF: A. HELSINKI 416
         ¶B. HELSINKI 639
         ¶C. HELSINKI 682

    SUMMARY / INTRODUCTION
    ----------------------
    ¶1. (SBU): The Embassy warmly welcomes you to Helsinki and
    views your visit as a key opportunity to advance the most
    important issues on the US-Finland agenda.  Afghanistan
    and NATO top the list, as both are the subject of intense
    domestic political discussion right now.  Many in the new
    government are eager for Finland to increase aid and
    troop commitments to NATO/ISAF, but they face a tough
    political battle with the opposition and with NATO
    skeptics within their own governing coalition.  A similar
    debate surrounds a pending decision on joining the NRF.
    Your public and private messages can help tip the
    Afghanistan and NRF arguments in a positive direction.
    Your official meetings offer opportunities to bolster our
    already strong collaboration on Kosovo and, perhaps, to
    chart a more dynamic course on Russia, democracy in the
    Near Neighborhood, and Finland's 2008 OSCE Presidency.
    On the public diplomacy side, NATO and Afghanistan will
    again be key, and we also stand to make some headway with
    strong messages on climate change, missile defense and
    the Middle East.  "Watch-out fors" include lethal weapons
    for Afghanistan, which has become politically very
    difficult here, and insistent requests by the Finns for
    POTUS and SecState meetings.  END SUMMARY.

    AFGHANISTAN
    -----------
    ¶2. (SBU) Finland's solid contributions to NATO/ISAF and
    to Afghan reconstruction will continue; our challenge now
    is finding ways to help the GOF do more.  Afghanistan
    will receive $12 million in annual assistance for at
    least the next six years, and the GOF is finalizing the
    transfer of most if its 104 peacekeepers from a
    Norwegian-led PRT in Meymaneh to the Swedish-led PRT at
    Mazar-al-Sharif.  We hope to see Finland increase its
    troop commitments, with a view toward taking leadership
    of the Mazar PRT in 2009.  The Finns embed a small,
    highly effective civilian liaison team at Meymenah that
    targets development projects to support the PRT and which
    has won kudos from US commanders in Afghanistan for its
    effectiveness in building local community support for the
    PRT's efforts.  Taking leadership at Mazar in 2009 would
    allow Finland to implement that model there.

    ¶3. (SBU) Domestically, Afghanistan is the subject of an
    intense political debate right now.  At the time of your
    visit, the government will be finalizing a major report
    that examines all aspects of the security situation and
    makes recommendations on how/if Finland's role there
    should expand (Reftels A and B).  The MOD and MFA would
    like to see increased troop contributions to NATO/ISAF,
    PRT leadership in 2009, and more development and
    counternarcotics assistance.  Conservative Party members
    of government -- led by FM Ilkka Kanerva and MOD Jyri
    Hakamies -- support these recommendations, but are
    running into increasingly vocal opposition not only from
    outside government, but also from the NATO nay-sayers
    within the governing coalition (in particular the Center
    Party).  We intend to include some of these skeptics in
    the events on your schedule; your public and private
    comments to them indicating the value the US attaches to
    Finland's current contributions; how impressed we are
    with Finland's PRT-CMO coordination model; and the
    importance to Washington of what Finland is doing in
    Afghanistan will be extremely timely and can help
    influence the autumn debate in a positive direction.

    "WATCH OUT FOR" NO. 1: LETHAL WEAPONS TO AFGHANISTAN
    --------------------------------------------- -------
    ¶4. (SBU) Washington and Kabul have long hoped that
    Finland would make a lethal weapons donation to support
    the Afghan security forces.  However, this issue has
    become political poison here and threatens to derail our
    efforts to get Finland to do more in Afghanistan.
    President Halonen adamantly rejects the idea, and PM
    Vanhanen is clearly uncomfortable with it.  Even
    Conservatives like Hakamies, who personally support a
    donation, have backed away, recognizing that pressing too
    hard could cause Halonen (and probably even Vanhanen) to
    veto their efforts to have Finland do more in Afghanistan
    in other areas.  At this juncture, we should avoid
    pressing the Finns for a lethal donation that could

    derail our efforts to achieve other important goals such
    as more troops, more aid, and PRT leadership.

    NATO AND THE NRF
    ----------------
    ¶5. (SBU) Finland has EU Battlegroup commitments through
    mid-2008, but the MOD and MFA see Finnish participation
    in the NRF as a good complement to the Battlegroups -- a
    view we have actively supported.  Conservatives in
    government would like nothing better than to join Sweden
    in formally announcing that Finland will join the NRF at
    NATO's Global Force Generation conference in November, in
    hopes of standing up troops for the Danish-led NRF in
    ¶2010.  Unfortunately, the die-hard NATO naysayers in
    government (Center Party) and in opposition (about half
    the Social Democrats and some smaller parties) who
    adamantly oppose Finland's joining NATO have now begun
    alleging that the NRF is simply a 'slippery slope' to
    NATO membership.  Their argument is of course specious,
    and messages you deliver that (1) point to how the NRF
    can complement EU Battle Group participation and (2)
    clarify that NATO membership and NRF participation are
    entirely separate decisions will help keep this debate
    fact-based.

    KOSOVO
    ------
    ¶6. (SBU) Kosovo is one of Finland's highest foreign
    policy priorities.  The GOF has been one of our
    staunchest allies and has worked hard behind the scenes
    to ensure EU unity in support of Ahtisaari's final
    status.  Finland has more than 400 troops on the ground,
    provides extensive aid, and is actively engaged in the
    CFSP Planning Mission.  The GOF is quietly becoming
    concerned that the lack of a way forward may begin to
    undermine international efforts and will not support
    delays beyond the current Troika-led negotiating period
    (Reftel C).  The GOF has not made a national decision as
    to how it will react at the end of the current
    negotiating period if Kosovo unilaterally declares
    independence, and is adamant about not publicly
    discussing any kind of Plan B.  That said, officials
    will welcome an exchange of views on this and will be
    open to Washington's latest thinking.

    RUSSIA, DEMOCRACY AND THE NEAR NEIGHBORHOOD
    -------------------------------------------
    ¶7. (SBU) The general views of the USG and the GOF are in
    close harmony when it comes to support for democracy,
    civil society and human rights in Russia and Europe's new
    neighborhood.  Finland is already engaged in some
    activities that complement US Freedom Agenda goals,
    including support to environmental NGOs in Russia;
    educational exchanges in Russia and Belarus; and funding
    for the International Humanities University for
    Belarusian exiles in Vilnius.  GOF leaders have hosted
    high-level meetings with Belarusian opposition leaders,
    with Serb moderates, and with pro-democracy forces in
    Ukraine and the Caucuses.  The Estonian Bronze Statue
    crisis also emboldened the GOF to move away from the
    traditional Finnish propensity to acquiesce to Russia on
    tough issues.  Indeed, under the new government the GOF
    has begun publicly to challenge Moscow's policies and
    actions in ways the previous government eschewed.  The
    GOF is recognizing the need to speak out on heavy-handed
    Russian trade practices -- especially on energy issues
    and timber tariffs which directly affect Finland.  Most
    recently, MOD Hakamies used his Sept. 5-7 visit to
    Washington to identify Russia as Finland's single most
    important security challenge.

    ¶8. (SBU) Many Finns, however, are not yet fully
    comfortable with challenging Russia, and there is
    lingering reticence about taking too high profile a role
    in pressing for greater democracy elsewhere.  You can
    nudge interlocutors in the right direction by expressing
    appreciation for what Finland (and certain Finns, like
    Ahtisaari and EU Commissioner Olli Rehn) have done in
    these areas; by encouraging greater US-EU and US-Finland
    coordination in dealing with Russia; by encouraging Finns
    to play an even more active role in showing public
    support for pro-democracy leaders; and by urging high-
    level Finnish visits to countries where they can reach
    out to democratic forces -- with Belarus, Ukraine and the
    Balkans being perhaps the best fits in this regard.

    FINLAND'S 2008 OSCE PRESIDENCY

    ------------------------------
    ¶9. (SBU) Finland's agenda for its Presidency has some
    positive elements, as well as others that are of less
    interest.  In the latter category, for example, Finland's
    announced focus on European inland waterway issues is
    less than stirring from a US perspective; however, by
    emphasizing our priorities we can encourage more
    leadership in other areas.  One option is democracy.
    Finns can be counted on to focus heavily on the good work
    the OSCE does with election monitoring and institution
    building, although the GOF will need active support from
    us and other like-minded countries in countering the
    efforts of certain OSCE members to weaken the
    Organization in these areas.  On a particularly positive
    note, the Finns have told us that they intend to use
    their Presidency as a springboard to become more involved
    in promoting democracy and freedom within many member
    states -- an initiative that, with the right
    encouragement, could have a very positive impact on our
    Freedom Agenda priorities (see above).

    "WATCH OUT FOR" NO. 2: HIGH LEVEL MEETINGS
    ------------------------------------------
    ¶10. (SBU) The Finns will use their OSCE Presidency (as
    well as other issues) to press for S-Kanerva and POTUS-
    Halonen meetings.  While the S-Kanerva meeting in June
    was very successful for both sides, you will want to be
    prepared to urge the Finns to be realistic about how
    difficult it is to schedule these high level visits.

    PUBLIC DIPLOMACY
    ----------------
    ¶11. (SBU) We have programmed a heavy dose of PD into your
    schedule, including an on-the-record speech (Topic:
    "Finland, NATO and Afghanistan"), a "background" lunch
    roundtable with leading editors and columnists, and an
    on-the-record session with the electronic media and print
    journalists.  As noted above, your messages on NATO/ISAF
    and the value the US places on Finland's doing more in
    Afghanistan are the most timely and topical at this
    moment.  In addition, there will be strong interest in
    the Administration's newest efforts to confront climate
    change; in terrorism and other security-related issues;
    and in your general assessments of the trans-Atlantic
    relationship, NATO/EU cooperation; the US role in the
    Middle East Peace Process and, to a lesser extent, Iraq;
    and the current policy environment in Washington.  All
    your PD events offer a good opportunity to present the
    facts surrounding Missile Defense, and the Finns will be
    particularly interested in whatever you can share
    regarding US efforts to create a dialogue with Russia.
    HYATT

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