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### Viewing cable 06SAOPAULO465, 2006 ELECTIONS: A "RENT-A-PARTY" (PTB) POLITICIAN'S

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
06SAOPAULO465 | 2006-05-03 14:10 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Consulate Sao Paulo

`

    VZCZCXRO2649
    PP RUEHRG
    DE RUEHSO #0465/01 1231410
    ZNR UUUUU ZZH
    P 031410Z MAY 06
    FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4967
    INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6110
    RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 2196
    RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 2538
    RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0265
    RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 0948
    RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 1947
    RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 2747
    RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 1687
    RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO 7053
    RUEHRG/AMCONSUL RECIFE 2888
    RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
    RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
    RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
    RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2402
    RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC

` `

    UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 SAO PAULO 000465

    SIPDIS

    SENSITIVE
    SIPDIS

    NSC FOR CRONIN
    STATE PASS USTR FOR SULLIVAN/LEZNY
    DEPT OF TREASURY OASIA, DAS LEE AND FPARODI
    USDOC FOR 4332/ITA/MAC/WH/OLAC/SHUPKA
    USDOC ALSO FOR 3134/USFCS/OIO/EOLSON/DANDERSON
    STATE PASS EXIMBANK
    STATE PASS OPIC FOR DMORONESE, NRIVERA, CMERVENNE
    DOL FOR ILAB MMITTELHAUSER
    SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD
    AID/W FOR LAC/AA

    E.O. 12958: N/A
    TAGS: PGOV PINR BR
    SUBJECT: 2006 ELECTIONS: A "RENT-A-PARTY" (PTB) POLITICIAN'S
    PERSPECTIVE

    REF: A) BRASILIA 496; B) SAO PAULO 215; C) SAO PAULO 102;

    D) 05 BRASILIA 2601; E) 05 BRASILIA 2457 AND PREVIOUS; F) 05
    BRASILIA 1602

    SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY.

    -------
    SUMMARY
    -------

    ¶1.  (SBU) Sao Paulo former Governor Luiz Antonio Fleury Filho, now a
    Federal Deputy representing the Brazilian Labor Party (PTB), shared
    his views with Poloff on the upcoming national and state elections.
    DPO subsequently attended an event at AMCHAM where Fleury talked
    about his ideas for political reform.  Fleury thinks his party will
    obtain the required five percent vote in the Chamber of Deputies
    election required to keep its privileges and thus survive, but he
    admits it will be rough sledding, especially in light of the damage
    to the party's image caused by the expulsion from the Chamber of the
    PTB's national president, Roberto Jefferson (ref E), and the party's
    association with the political corruption scandal.  In other
    election-related comments, Fleury said the Brazilian Social
    Democracy Party (PSDB) had made a big mistake in nominating Sao
    Paulo Governor Geraldo Alckmin as its presidential candidate, and
    that Sao Paulo Mayor Jose Serra had likewise made a mistake in
    resigning his office to run for Governor.  He was skeptical that
    either one could win.  Fleury indicated that the PTB was still
    deciding whether or not to run its own candidate for Sao Paulo
    Governor.  END SUMMARY.

    --------------------
    PTB FACES CHALLENGES
    --------------------

    ¶2. (SBU) Two-term Federal Deputy Luiz Antonio Fleury Filho (PTB-SP)
    met with Poloff and Political Assistant April 24 to discuss the
    current electoral scene.  He indicated that his party's strategy
    will be dictated by the need to obtain a minimum of five percent of
    the nationwide vote for the Chamber of Deputies, and two percent in
    at least nine states.  Per ref C, the "Barrier Clause" of the 1995
    Law on Political Parties, in force for the first time in this year's
    elections, stipulates that parties whose vote totals fall below
    these percentages lose the privilege of having party leaders in the
    Chamber and the Senate; of having their members serve as Committee
    chairs or as officers of either Chamber; of receiving the bulk of
    government subsidies provided to political parties (the "Fundo
    Partidario"); and of receiving free television and radio time.  Any
    party placed in such a position will almost certainly be unable to
    survive.

    ¶3. (SBU) Fleury, who joined the PTB in 1995 and serves as its
    Executive Director and its First Vice-Leader in the Chamber of
    Deputies, noted that his party's prospects are further impacted by
    the negative publicity it received when its national president,
    Federal Deputy Roberto Jefferson (RJ), was implicated in bribery
    last year and denounced the governing Workers Party (Partido dos
    Trabalhadores - PT) and others for a systematic bribery scheme
    involving monthly payoffs to Deputies in return for votes on
    government-sponsored legislation (the "mensalao" - see ref F).
    Jefferson was eventually expelled from the Chamber and deprived for
    eight years of his political rights, and the PTB was irrevocably
    associated in the public mind with the "mensalao" and corruption.
    Founded in 1945 by then-President Getulio Vargas as a labor party,
    the PTB emerged in 1985 from the military dictatorship with a more

    SAO PAULO 00000465  002 OF 005

    rightist orientation, but its political identity is ill-defined, and
    most commentators consider it a "legenda a alugar" or rent-a-party
    that serves no other purpose than to advance the ambitions of its
    members.

    ¶4. (SBU) Fleury listed nine states (Sao Paulo, Rio Grande do Sul,
    Minas Gerais, and Goias among them) where he was reasonably
    confident the PTB could garner more than the required two percent.
    He also thought the party could get more than five percent of the
    vote nationwide, though this would depend in part on alliances with
    larger, stronger parties at the state level.  (NOTE: In 2002, the
    PTB got 5.1 percent of the nationwide vote, winning 26 seats out of
    513 in the Chamber.  It did well in the never-ending party-switching
    game, and by the time the Chamber was seated in February 2003, it
    had 41 seats.  It currently holds 43.  END NOTE.)

    --------------------------------------------- ---
    THE VERTICALIZATION RULE AND ELECTORAL ALLIANCES
    --------------------------------------------- ---

    ¶5.  (SBU) The alliance picture remains complicated by uncertainty
    over what the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) will do in
    the presidential election.  If it runs its own candidate - Rio de
    Janeiro ex-Governor Anthony Garotinho and former President Itamar
    Franco have both accounced their pre-candidacies - or allies with
    another party at the national level, the "verticalization" rule will
    limit its options for state alliances.  Fleury's only comment on
    Garotinho was, "When he defected from the Socialists, he wanted to
    join the PTB, but we wouldn't take him."  The PTB would like to ally
    with the PMDB in certain states - for example, Rio Grande do Sul -
    to increase its vote totals.  In 2002, the PTB was part of the
    coalition that helped elect Lula, and has remained part of the
    governing coalition, but Fleury said it would avoid national
    alliances this year in order to retain flexibility at the state
    level.  He believes the verticalization rule has played a positive
    role by requiring political parties establish national identity, and
    lamented the recent Constitutional amendment that abolishes the rule
    beginning with the 2010 elections.

    ------------------------------------
    IMPLICATIONS OF THE "BARRIER CLAUSE"
    ------------------------------------

    ¶6.  (SBU) As things stand now, there are seventeen parties
    represented in the Chamber of Deputies.  With the entry into force
    of the "Barrier Clause," Fleury estimated that eight parties will
    achieve the thresholds necessary to survive these elections.  These
    are the four major parties - the PT, PMDB, PSDB, and the Liberal
    Front Party (PFL) -  along with the PTB and several formulations
    created by the merger of smaller parties.  Asked about the
    possibility of the PTB's merging with another party to enhance its
    chances, Fleury noted that the Liberal Party (PL) has a chance to
    survive, but not much of one, and the Progressivist Party (PP) is
    almost certainly doomed.  These two groups, also part of the
    governing coalition, might be natural merger partners for the PTB,
    but both are heavily implicated in the "mensalao" scandal, and any
    combination mixing the PTB with either or both of them would be
    perceived and dismissed as a "Party of Mensaleiros" (Party on the
    Take) and thus not a likely vote-getter.  The scandal exposed the
    fact that these medium-sized parties lack identity and ideology,
    Fleury noted, and will need to be restructured if they hope to
    survive.  Over on the left wing, some combination or elements of the
    Communist Party of Brazil (PCdoB), Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB),
    Democratic Labor Party (PDT), and Popular Socialist Party (PPS)

    SAO PAULO 00000465  003 OF 005

    might merge into one or two viable parties (or the PCdoB might be
    folded into Lula's PT), but the PTB would have no interest in
    joining them.  A number of smaller parties - the Green Party (PV)
    and Senator Heloisa Helena's Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL) on
    the left, the centrist Social Christian Party (PSC), and the
    Brazilian Republican Party (PRB) of Vice-President Alencar and the
    Party for the Re-edification of the National Order (PRONA) on the
    right - will likely disappear, and few will miss them, Fleury said.

    -------------------------------
    ALCKMIN: THE PERFECT SON-IN-LAW
    -------------------------------

    ¶7.  (SBU) Asked for his views on the presidential election, Fleury,
    in contrast to post's other interlocutors, opined that the PSDB had
    made a big mistake in choosing Sao Paulo then-Governor Geraldo
    Alckmin as its candidate.  The problem with Alckmin, he said, is
    that he is "the perfect son-in-law," intelligent, polite, serious,
    hard-working, reserved, and ultimately boring.  You want him to
    marry your daughter because he can be trusted to treat her well, but
    you don't want him to run the country.  You want someone who can
    capture the people's imagination, the way Lula has done.  He's going
    to have a very hard time developing a message that will resonate,
    especially when competing with a politician of Lula's charisma.
    Fleury also implied that Alckmin is simply not tough or ruthless
    enough to win the election.  A further problem, in his view, is that
    Alckmin makes too easy a target for those who want to turn this
    election into a referendum on economic class, one that the poor
    would inevitably win by dint of sheer numbers.  Lula will appeal to
    the poor, especially in the northeast, by pegging Alckmin as the
    rich people's candidate.  Already the media have stirred up
    controversy over reports that the candidate's wife, Maria Lucia
    ("Dona Lu") Alckmin, accepted 400 dresses and outfits from her
    world-class designer, and how his daughter worked at Daslu, the
    upscale Sao Paulo department store for Brazil's super-rich whose
    owners are under investigation for tax evasion.  But Fleury
    discounted any scenario involving the PSDB's withdrawing Alckmin as
    its candidate and replacing him with former Sao Paulo Mayor Jose
    Serra.  "It's too risky all around; they could end up with nothing,
    and besides, it would look like an admission of defeat or error."
    Fleury also thought Serra had made a mistake by resigning to run for
    Governor of Sao Paulo state; his poll numbers look good now, but
    he's likely to run into trouble along the way.  He doesn't have to
    lose many points to throw the election into a second round, and "a
    second round is a whole new election, where anything can happen."

    --------------------
    FLEURY FOR GOVERNOR?
    --------------------

    ¶8.  (SBU) Fleury, who as a PMDB member served from 1991 through 1994
    as Governor of Sao Paulo, said the PTB was currently conducting
    surveys to determine whether to run its own candidate for Governor.
    If they do, Fleury said, "it will almost certainly be me," and he
    will abandon his bid for re-election to the Chamber.   He noted that
    a critical issue for the electorate, and a vulnerability for other
    candidates, is public security.  Fleury, a former state policeman
    and prosecutor who later served as State Secretary for Public
    Security, promised a strong law-and-order platform if his party
    decides to run him.  Asked what role former Governor and PMDB state
    chairman Orestes Quercia would play in the election, Fleury laughed
    and said, "How should I know? I haven't spoken to Quercia since
    1993," but went on to predict that his former political mentor would

    SAO PAULO 00000465  004 OF 005

    continue to seek a way to run for the Senate seat currently occupied
    by Eduardo Suplicy (PT).  Quercia didn't want to run for Governor,
    Fleury was sure, and his family must certainly be opposed, just as
    Fleury's own family opposed his candidacy.  Running for Governor
    makes you too much of a target, he complained.

    --------------------------------------------
    POLITICAL REFORM: MULTIPLE, DICORDANT VOICES
    --------------------------------------------

    ¶8. (U) In his April 28 presentation at AMCHAM, Fleury stressed the
    critical need for reform and overhaul of Brazil's political system,
    but noted that it would be difficult to accomplish because each of
    the 513 Deputies had his or her own views on what the priorities
    should be, and each was determined to defend parochial interests.
    Brazil, he suggested, is not yet mature enough to adopt a system of
    public financing of political campaigns, though such a measure would
    in theory reduce corruption and the influence of special interests.
    He believes Brazil is "vice-ridden," with too many Vice-Presidents,
    Vice-Governors, and Vice-Mayors who add nothing to the government's
    operational capacity but rather tend to gum up the works.  He also
    advocated reducing the size of Congress, adopting a pure party-list
    voting system (the current system awards seats based on both party
    and individual votes) as a means strengthening political parties,
    and merging municipalities that are too small to be administratively
    viable on their own and tend to be rife with corruption.

    ---------------------------
    COMMENT AND BIOGRAPHIC NOTE
    ---------------------------

    ¶9. (SBU) Fleury's term as Governor was blighted by the 1992
    Carandiru prison massacre (refs A-B), in which 111 prisoners were
    killed when military police were sent into a prison to quell a riot.
     Legal fallout from the case continues to this day, and Fleury never
    fully recovered his popularity.  In 1994, when he handed the
    governor's office over to Mario Covas (PSDB), it was reported that
    state spending had increased fourfold during his administration and
    state finances were "in a shambles."  He was considered for a
    position in the incoming administration of Fernando Henrique Cardoso
    (PSDB), but was discarded reportedly because his appointment would
    have been seen as a slap in the face of Covas, who by all accounts
    was not amused by the mess he inherited.  There were also
    allegations against Fleury of campaign finance violations and other
    financial irregularities.  Though many believe it was not Fleury,
    but rather his predecessor and mentor, Quercia, who was to blame for
    problems in the state administration, a new Fleury candidacy for
    Governor, twelve years later, would nonetheless be perceived by most
    as improbably quixotic, and the PTB is likely to realize that.  He
    is respected in the Chamber of Deputies, where he is working to
    restore his party's reputation in the aftermath of the Roberto
    Jefferson debacle.  He vocally led a successful effort late last
    year to defeat a PT-proposed referendum to ban sales of firearms.
    Following the September resignation in disgrace of Chamber President
    Severino Cavalcanti, Fleury's name was one of several mentioned as a
    possible successor, but he disavowed any such ambitions when the
    Lula administration threw its weight behind its erstwhile political
    coordinator, Aldo Rebelo (PCdoB-SP), who ultimately prevailed (ref
    D).  More recently, with public indignation mounting over the full
    Chamber's acquittal of Members denounced by the Ethics Committee for
    their role in the mensalao scandal, Fleury has lobbied vigorously to
    change the rules to require a public vote on all matters, including
    dismissal of Members.    END COMMENT AND BIOGRAPHIC NOTE.

    SAO PAULO 00000465  005 OF 005

    ¶10.  (U) This cable has been coordinated/cleared with Embassy
    Brasilia.

    MCMULLEN

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