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### Viewing cable 08DUBLIN389, BRIAN COWEN: NO SOLUTION TO THE LISBON CRISIS BUT

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08DUBLIN389 | 2008-06-27 14:40 | 2011-07-22 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Dublin

`

    VZCZCXRO5090
    PP RUEHAG RUEHROV
    DE RUEHDL #0389/01 1791440
    ZNY CCCCC ZZH
    P 271440Z JUN 08
    FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
    TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9298
    INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000389

    SIPDIS

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2018
    TAGS: EAIR ECON ENRG ETRD EUN PGOV PREL EINV
    SUBJECT: BRIAN COWEN: NO SOLUTION TO THE LISBON CRISIS BUT
    CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR U.S. INITIATIVES

    REF: A. DUBLIN 384 AND PREVIOUS
         ¶B. 07DUBLIN 919
         ¶C. DUBLIN 306
         ¶D. DUBLIN 228
         ¶E. DUBLIN 54

    Classified By: Ambassador Thomas C. Foley; Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

    -------
    Summary
    -------

    ¶1.  (C) During the Ambassador's meeting with Irish Prime
    Minister Brian Cowen on June 26, 2008 (their first formal
    meeting since Cowen assumed his new position as Taoiseach),
    Cowen affirmed continued Irish support for U.S. activities in
    Shannon and expanded CBP pre-clearance operations.  Cowen
    urged a swift conclusion to the negotiations to expand CBP
    operations in Ireland.  Regarding the two issues which have
    garnered the majority of local media attention over the past
    several weeks: rejection of the Lisbon Treaty and the
    economic downturn, Cowen provided limited insight into likely
    next steps by either the Irish government or the European
    Union.  The Taoiseach indicated that lack of a resolution on
    the issue of undocumented Irish in America remained a
    pressing bilateral issue.  Finally, he expressed interest in
    spurring private philanthropy, but cautioned that the
    economic climate could complicate government efforts.  End
    Summary.

    --------------------------------------------- -----
    Shannon Airport/CBP Operations - Continued Support
    --------------------------------------------- -----

    ¶2.  (C) Cowen stressed that as long as he is in office, the
    United States can count on continued support for its military
    flight activities at Shannon airport.  (Note: Spurred by a
    recent Amnesty International report, Irish media have again
    focused national attention on the alleged use of Shannon for
    extraordinary renditions.  end note)  The Taoiseach urged the
    Ambassador to press for a swift conclusion of the
    negotiations on the agreement to expand pre-clearance
    operations, noting that he strongly believed that adding
    pre-clearance capabilities to Shannon would bring a large
    economic boost to western Ireland.  The Ambassador pointed
    out that he understood that a significant sticking point is
    the required legislation in Ireland that may delay until 2009
    the launch of the expanded CBP operations. Mr. Cowen replied
    that his staff would investigate to determine if the
    legislation could be fast tracked.

    --------------------------------------------- ----------------
    Undocumented Irish - Potential To Harm "Special Relationship"
    --------------------------------------------- ----------------

    ¶3.  (C) The Taoiseach told the Ambassador that the unresolved
    issue of undocumented Irish in America could affect bilateral
    relations in the future if young Irish no longer have the
    opportunity to go to America to work. While he sees the
    proposed new exchange visa as helpful, he is concerned about
    those who are already in America and urged the U.S. to
    develop a means by which the undocumented Irish could return
    to Ireland and somehow apply for permanent residence status.
    He stressed that the special relationship between Ireland and
    the U.S. is a result of generations of Irish workers in the
    United States, some of whom stayed, others who returned to
    Ireland.  He said he would be "concerned for the
    relationship" if that flow stopped for ten or twelve years.
    When questioned about the status of immigration reform in the
    U.S., the Ambassador indicated that it is a priority for the
    current administration but the outlook is poor for passing
    immigration legislation before the President leaves office.

    -------------------------------------------
    Lisbon Treaty Aftermath- No Clear Direction
    -------------------------------------------

    ¶4.  (C) Cowen was generally non-committal and genuinely
    appeared to be unsure of the way forward in light of the
    recent Irish rejection of the Lisbon Treaty.  He indicated
    that amending the treaty would be unlikely, as that would
    require re-ratification by all member states.  Cowen
    suggested that the only option available would be to vote
    again on the same treaty, an option he couldn't be optimistic
    about, and one which, at the very least, would require the
    passage of considerable time.  As such, he is adopting a
    "wait and see" attitude.

    ----------------------------------
    Economy- Exaggerated Media Reports
    ----------------------------------

    DUBLIN 00000389  002 OF 002

    ¶5.  (C) While he did acknowledge a significant downturn in
    the current year, Cowen believes that media reports are
    exaggerated and he is "not too worried" about it.  He
    believes that based on demographics, new construction will
    rebound to 65,000 homes next year.  He stated that many
    adults in Ireland have never experienced a down economy and
    that the onus is on the government to develop a "political
    narrative" for them.  He briefly discussed alternative energy
    sources, and shares Post's belief that Ocean energy provides
    Ireland with a good investment and job creation opportunity.

    --------------------------------------------- -------------
    Philanthropy Stimulation- Support, But Difficult Political
    Environment
    --------------------------------------------- -------------

    ¶6.  (C) Cowen indicated that he is interested in the issue of
    Philanthropy and that he supports the U.S.'s efforts in
    Ireland (see Reftel).  However, he expressed concern that the
    economic climate may make it difficult for the government to
    implement tax incentives in the near term that could be seen
    as favoring the rich.  He believes that there is a general
    consensus that the wealthy should not benefit from tax breaks
    and believes that in order for opinion to shift, prominent
    NGOs are best situated to make the case for new tax
    incentives.  The Taoiseach is in agreement with tasking the
    National Economic and Social Forum to make policy
    recommendations for stimulating philanthropy in Ireland.  At
    the conclusion of this discussion, the Ambassador provided
    the Taoiseach with a memorandum on the issue (sent to Desk
    separately).  He then suggested that creating an environment
    to stimulate philanthropy in Ireland would be an excellent
    legacy opportunity for some leader and that he hoped Mr.
    Cowen would make it one of his.

    -------
    Comment
    -------

    ¶7.  (C) Brian Cowen has a very different style from his
    predecessor.  He is very knowledgeable on the issues and is
    willing to engage in dialogue at the policy level.  He is
    more approachable than his predecessor and offers the
    opportunity for closer personal relationships with Embassy
    personnel.  Staffers expressed interest and excitement in a
    possible connection between Barack Obama's ancestors and the
    Taoiseach's home county of Offaly.
    FOLEY

`