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### Viewing cable 08BRASILIA93, BRAZIL'S NUCLEAR SUBMARINE AMBITIONS

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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
08BRASILIA93 | 2008-01-15 18:56 | 2011-07-11 00:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Brasilia

`

    O 151856Z JAN 08
    FM AMEMBASSY BRASILIA
    TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0861
    SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
    INFO AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES PRIOITY
    AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY
    AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY
    AMMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0415
    AMEMBASSY ARIS PRIORITY
    AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY

` `

    C O N F I D E N T I A L  BRASILIA 000093

    Classified By: Ambassador Clifford Sobel.  Reason 1.5 (b) (d)

    DEPARTMENT FOR WHA, M, T

    E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2018
    TAGS: MASSMNUC NPT PARM PREL
    SUBJECT: BRAZIL'S NUCLEAR SUBMARINE AMBITIONS

    ¶1. (U) This is n action request - see para 9.

    ¶2. (C)  SUMMARY. Brazil's leadership, including President
    Lula and Defense Minister Jobim, have expressed support for
    production of a Brazilian nuclear submarine in recent months.
    While serious questions exist as to the proposed vessel's
    military utility and affrodability, it enjoys strong support
    both for reasons of perceived national prestige and for its
    pssible benefits to Brazil's nuclear power industry.
    Although the submarine program may well collapse under its
    cost burden and technological challenges, Brazil appears
    determined to proceed with consideration of this project, as
    Jobim has already gone on record saying that he expects to
    proceed with support from Russia and France.  U.S. opposition
    at this point would likely only increase support within
    Brazil for the nuclear submarine program.  Brazil is a member
    of the NPT and, provided it maintains a strong compliance
    record, its naval propulsion program is not necessarily a
    proliferaton risk.  Moreover, Mission believes that U.S.
    spport for Brazil's naval modernization, including submarine
    technology where appropriate -- subject to regular export
    control measures -- would help forge stronger connection to
    the Brazilian defense industry and military.  END SUMMARY.

    ¶3.  (C)  Brazil's nuclear submarine program, begun in the
    late 1970s, has been reinvigorated by high-level support.
    President Lula, an opponent of nuclear power and the military
    in his union leader days, announced on July 10, 2007 that he
    would seek funding to build a nuclear submarine.  Defense
    Minister Jobim stated in November that he was looking for a
    plan to proceed with construction.  These proposals are part
    of a broader Brazilian effort, driven by increasing awareness
    of the shortcomings of the Brazilian military, to modernize
    Brazil's military forces and defense srategy.  Jobim and
    Long-Term Planning Minister Rberto Mangabeira Unger are
    heading up a special ommission to rethink Brazil's national
    defense srategy (to be reported septel), which will
    presumbly set the framework for future development and
    purchases of military hardware.  The commission is due to
    complete its work in September.  Such defense restructuring
    could present opportunities fo expanding U.S.-Brazilian
    cooperation, and because of the high level support, an
    indication that the U.S. would be prepared to work with
    Brazil's submarine program as appropriate could open the door
    to improved ties with the Hemisphere's second largest
    military and defense industry.  However, while cooperation
    with Brazil's defense modernization is in U.S. interests, it
    should not be limited to one area  The nuclear submarine's
    high costs and limited military utility may again put the
    program on the rocks, making it unwise to limit cooperation
    to this area.

    WHY A NUCLEAR SUBMARINE?
    -------------------------------------------

    ¶4. (SBU)  Brazil has long harbored ambitions for building
    nuclear submarines.  A large part of its motivation comes
    from a perception that, in order to be taken seriously as a
    world power, such vessels will be necessary.  In July
    President Lula was quoted as saying "I think we would be more
    highly valued as a nation (with a nuclear submarine)."  All
    of the UN Security Council's permanent members operate
    nuclear subs, and fellow UNSC aspirant India has leased a
    Russian sub and is building its own version.  More than just
    keeping up with the Guptas, Brazil also sees the submarine
    program as a boost to its domestic nuclear power industry.
    Lula has made improved nuclear power generation a priority,
    and could gain support for its funding by linking it to a
    project of national prestige.  The submarine project could
    also allow Brazil to take advantage of the NPT provision that
    exempts naval propulsion from IAEA safeguards, a potentially
    important point when Brazil has disputed IAEA access to
    specific areas of its nuclear facilities.

    ¶5.  (SBU)    There are, however, several serious obstacles to
    Brazil's nuclear submarine program.  The most significant is
    cost.  Brazilian press estimates are that building a nuclear
    sub will cost over half a billion dollars (production costs
    of U.S. subs are around USD 4 billion).  Even if this figure
    were correct, it would be a significant percentage of
    Brazil's USD 13 billion defense budget.  Brazil has other
    urgent defense priorities, including modernization and
    replacement of virtually all its aircraft and many of its
    armored vehicles, not to mention its conventional naval
    units.  Brazil also faces important technological barriers to
    producing fuel for a naval reactor, which would require a
    higher level of enrichment than fuel for a civilian power
    reactor.  Prior submarine research has also encountered
    difficulty developing of technology for a pressure hull.

    ¶6.  (SBU)  There is no military reason why Brazil should
    deploy a nuclear sub.  Traditional missions for such vessels,
    long range power projection and long time on station
    capability, are not part of Brazilian naval doctrine.
    Defense Minister Jobim made headlines in November by
    announcing that Brazil's nuclear sub would be used to protect
    recent offshore oil discoveries.  Even if a threat to the oil
    fields existed, it could be met more effectively, and
    economically, by conventional vessels.  In reality, a nuclear
    submarine would not improve Brazil's security apart from a
    dubious boost to national machismo.

    ¶7.  (C)  In his November statement, Jobim said he expected to
    purchase submarine technology from France, which would have
    fewer restrictions.  While Brazil will ultimately approach
    both France and Russia, Jobim and Unger have also made clear
    that they would like access to U.S. technology, which in many
    areas is clearly superior.  Offers to discuss access to U.S.
    technology on a program personally important to Jobim can
    open the door to other more practical issues.  In a January
    14 meeting with Ambassador Sobel, Unger mentioned the fuel
    cycle, hull development, software and weaponry as areas for
    possible U.S. contributions.

    ELEMENTS OF A U.S. POSITION
    -------------------------------------------

    ¶8.  (C)  Brazil is currently considering a much-needed
    defense modernization, a key element of which will be
    augmenting Brazil's navy.  Building a nuclear submarine could
    undermine Brazil's overall effort by diverting resources to a
    program that would not improve military effectiveness.  That
    said, U.S. opposition would almost certainly serve to
    strengthen Brazilian resolve to press on.  With Lula and
    Jobim providing strong public support, it is likely that
    efforts to build a Brazilian nuclear submarine will continue.
     We can avoid provoking a negative reaction from the GOB on
    this issue and potential defense cooperation in other areas
    by maintaining our general openness to cooperating with
    military modernization, including submarine technology, and
    not taking a specific position at this time on Brazil's
    nuclear submarine program.  Nonetheless, we need to be sure
    that our discussion encompasses not just submarines, but
    other fields for potentially beneficial cooperation.  Brazil
    should also maintain its good record on proliferation issues,
    including resolving its issues with the IAEA.  Singing an
    additional protocol with IAEA would provide a higher level of
    access to Brazilian nuclear facilities and facilitate
    assistance to Brazil's nuclear industry.  We also need to
    make clear that any exports of U.S. technology would be
    subject to U.S. Arms Export Control Act restrictions,
    including necessary end use and retransfer assurances.  In
    our discussions with the GOB, we can highlight that Brazil
    will be treated equally with U.S. allies and offer to address
    Brazilian concerns on this issue during our upcoming
    political-military consultations. .

    Comment and Action Request:

    ¶9.  (C) Brazil's white whale may ultimately become stranded
    on the reefs of technical challenges and cost overruns, but
    continued openness to cooperation at a time when Brazil will
    be making important decisions about its future security
    strategy and forces can have longer term benefits to the
    U.S.-Brazil relationship.  The nuclear submarine program,
    with its high-level backing, can provide a catalyst for a
    greater U.S. role in other modernization projects.  Jobim
    will almost certainly raise this issue with SecDef Gates on
    his visit to Washington in March.  As we prepare for this
    visit, mission requests Washington concurrence with this
    approach and guidance on next steps for potential defense
    cooperation.

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